State of Arizona v. Hon. wein/goodman , 417 P.3d 787 ( 2018 )


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  •                                  IN THE
    SUPREME COURT OF THE STATE OF ARIZONA
    STATE OF ARIZONA, Petitioner,
    v.
    THE HONORABLE KEVIN B. WEIN, COMMISSIONER OF THE SUPERIOR COURT
    OF THE STATE OF ARIZONA, IN AND FOR THE COUNTY OF MARICOPA,
    Respondent Commissioner,
    GUY JAMES GOODMAN,
    Real Party in Interest.
    No. CR-17-0221-PR
    Filed May 25, 2018
    Appeal from the Superior Court in Maricopa County
    The Honorable Kevin B. Wein, Commissioner
    No. CR2017-108708
    AFFIRMED
    Opinion of the Court of Appeals, Division One
    
    242 Ariz. 352
    (App. 2017)
    VACATED
    COUNSEL:
    William G. Montgomery, Maricopa County Attorney, Lisa Marie Martin
    (argued), Deputy County Attorney, Phoenix, Attorneys for State of Arizona
    James J. Haas, Maricopa County Public Defender, Nicholaus Podsiadlik
    (argued), Jamie Allen Jackson, Deputy Public Defenders, Phoenix,
    Attorneys for Guy James Goodman
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General, Dominic E. Draye, Solicitor
    General, Rusty D. Crandell (argued), Assistant Solicitor General, Phoenix,
    Attorneys for Amicus Curiae Arizona Attorney General
    David J. Euchner (argued), Tucson, Deputy Public Defender, Attorney for
    Amici Curiae Arizona Attorneys for Criminal Justice and Pima County
    Public Defender
    Jared G. Keenan, Kathleen E. Brody, Phoenix, Attorneys for Amicus Curiae
    American Civil Liberties Union Foundation of Arizona; Andrea Woods,
    American Civil Liberties Union Foundation Criminal Law Reform Project,
    New York, NY, Attorneys for the American Civil Liberties Union and the
    American Civil Liberties Union of Arizona
    JUSTICE TIMMER authored the opinion of the Court, in which CHIEF
    JUSTICE BALES, VICE CHIEF JUSTICE BRUTINEL, and JUSTICE
    PELANDER joined. JUSTICE BOLICK, joined by JUSTICES GOULD and
    LOPEZ, dissented. JUSTICE GOULD, joined by JUSTICE LOPEZ,
    dissented.
    JUSTICE TIMMER, opinion of the Court:
    ¶1            Persons charged with sexual assault must not be released on
    bail if they pose a danger of committing new sexual assaults or other
    dangerous crimes while awaiting trial. The question here is how this may
    be accomplished in a manner that furthers this public-safety goal while
    preserving an accused’s constitutionally guaranteed liberty interest.
    ¶2             Article 2, section 22(A)(1), of the Arizona Constitution and
    A.R.S. § 13-3961(A)(2) categorically prohibit bail for all persons charged
    with sexual assault if “the proof is evident or the presumption great” that
    the person committed the crime, without considering other facts that may
    justify bail in an individual case. We hold that these provisions, on their
    face, violate the Fourteenth Amendment’s Due Process Clause. Unless the
    defendant is accused of committing sexual assault while already admitted
    to bail on a separate felony charge, the trial court must make an
    individualized bail determination before ordering pretrial detention. See
    Ariz. Const. art. 2, § 22(A)(2)–(3).
    2
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    BACKGROUND
    ¶3            The Arizona Constitution provides that all persons charged
    with crimes shall be bailable unless the accused is charged with a crime that
    falls within an exception and the proof is evident or the presumption great
    that he committed that crime. Ariz. Const. art. 2, § 22(A). Before 2002, these
    exceptions were limited to capital offenses, felony offenses committed
    while the accused is on bail for a separate felony charge, and felony offenses
    when the person charged poses a substantial danger to any other person or
    the community and no conditions of release would reasonably assure
    safety. A.R.S. § 13-3961, historical note.
    ¶4            In 2002, Arizona voters added to the listed exceptions by
    passing Proposition 103, which amended article 2, section 22(A)(1), to
    forbid bail when the proof is evident or the presumption great that an
    accused committed sexual assault, sexual conduct with a minor under
    fifteen years of age, or molestation of a child under fifteen years of age
    (“Proposition 103 offenses”). See id.; see also A.R.S. § 13-3961(A)(2)–(4)
    (codifying Proposition 103). Proposition 103 also declared that the
    purposes of bail and any conditions for release include “[a]ssuring the
    appearance of the accused,” “[p]rotecting against the intimidation of
    witnesses,” and “[p]rotecting the safety of the victim, any other person or
    the community.” Ariz. Const. art. 2, § 22(B); A.R.S. § 13-3961, historical
    note.
    ¶5              In Simpson v. Miller (Simpson II), 
    241 Ariz. 341
    , 349 ¶ 31 (2017),
    cert. denied, Arizona v. Martinez, 
    138 S. Ct. 146
    (2017), this Court held article 2,
    section 22(A)(1), and § 13-3961(A)(3) facially unconstitutional as they
    related to charges of sexual conduct with a minor under fifteen years of age.
    After Simpson II the superior court required individualized bail
    determinations pursuant to § 13-3961(D) for all persons charged with
    Proposition 103 offenses. Section 13-3961(D) provides, in relevant part:
    [A] person who is in custody shall not be admitted to bail if
    the person is charged with a felony offense and the state
    certifies by motion and the court finds after a hearing on the
    matter that there is clear and convincing evidence that the
    person charged poses a substantial danger to another person
    3
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    or the community or engaged in conduct constituting a
    violent offense, that no condition or combination of
    conditions of release may be imposed that will reasonably
    assure the safety of the other person or the community and
    that the proof is evident or the presumption great that the
    person committed the offense.
    ¶6            In 2017, the State charged Guy Goodman with sexually
    assaulting a victim in 2010. “A person commits sexual assault by
    intentionally or knowingly engaging in sexual intercourse or oral sexual
    contact with any person without consent of such person.”
    A.R.S. § 13-1406(A). The state can charge a person with sexual assault at
    any time as no statute of limitations applies to the offense. See A.R.S.
    § 13-107(A).
    ¶7            Over the State’s objection that sexual assault remains a non-
    bailable offense after Simpson II, the superior court conducted a
    § 13-3961(D) bail hearing. A police officer testified that the victim claimed
    that Goodman, a guest in the victim’s home after a night of socializing,
    touched her vaginal area beneath her underwear while she was sleeping
    and without her consent. DNA tested from an external vaginal swab
    confirmed this contact. The officer also said that Goodman, when
    confronted with the DNA results, admitted digital penetration. The court
    ruled that although there was proof evident or a presumption great that
    Goodman committed the offense, the State had failed to “meet its burden
    of clear and convincing evidence to show that [Goodman] poses a
    substantial danger to other persons or the community.” (The State did not
    assert that Goodman committed a “violent offense,” which is defined as
    either a dangerous crime against children or terrorism.                 A.R.S.
    § 13-3961(D).) The court reasoned that “[t]here was no evidence of any
    recent felony criminal history or prior similar offenses or arrests nor any
    evidence of criminal offenses between the time of this alleged offense in
    2010 and today,” nor any history of contact, threats, or intimidation aimed
    at the victim or any witnesses. The court set bail at $70,000, required that
    Goodman’s movements be electronically monitored upon release, and
    imposed other conditions, including that he not possess any weapons, use
    non-prescription drugs, or contact the victim.
    4
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    ¶8            On special action review, the court of appeals vacated the bail
    order, holding that “[s]exual assault remains a non-bailable offense” after
    Simpson II, and so a § 13-3961(D) hearing is not required. State v. Wein,
    
    242 Ariz. 352
    , 353 ¶ 1 (App. 2017).
    ¶9             We granted review to determine whether the categorical
    denial of bail for persons charged with sexual assault, when the proof is
    evident or the presumption great as to the charge, violates due process, an
    issue of statewide importance. Although Goodman pleaded guilty and was
    sentenced while this matter was pending, we nevertheless decide the issue
    because it is capable of repetition yet could evade review due to the
    temporary duration of pretrial detention. See State v. Valenzuela, 
    144 Ariz. 43
    , 44 (1985). We have jurisdiction pursuant to article 6, section 5(3), of the
    Arizona Constitution and A.R.S. § 12-120.24.
    DISCUSSION
    I. Restrictions on pretrial detention: the Salerno standards
    ¶10           The constitutional validity of Proposition 103’s prohibition on
    bail for defendants accused of sexual assault is an issue of law we review
    de novo. See Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 344
    ¶ 7. As the challenging party,
    Goodman bears the “heavy burden” of demonstrating that the restriction is
    facially unconstitutional. United States v. Salerno, 
    481 U.S. 739
    , 745 (1987).
    ¶11              The Due Process Clause prohibits the government from
    punishing an accused by jailing him before trial. See 
    id. at 746.
    But if pretrial
    detention is regulatory rather than punitive, the government’s interest can,
    in appropriate and exceptional circumstances, outweigh an individual’s
    “strong interest in liberty,” an important, fundamental right. 
    Id. at 748,
    750;
    see also 
    id. at 755
    (“In our society liberty is the norm, and detention prior to
    trial or without trial is the carefully limited exception.”).
    ¶12          In Salerno, the United States Supreme Court used a two-step
    standard to determine whether the Bail Reform Act’s provisions permitting
    pretrial detention constituted impermissible punishment or potentially
    permissible regulation. 
    Id. at 747.
    “Unless Congress expressly intended to
    impose punitive restrictions, the punitive/regulatory distinction turns on
    [1] whether an alternative purpose to which the restriction may rationally
    be connected is assignable for it, and [2] whether it appears excessive in
    5
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    relation to the alternative purpose assigned to it.” 
    Id. (internal quotation
    marks and alterations omitted) (quoting Schall v. Martin, 
    467 U.S. 253
    , 269
    (1984)). The Court concluded that the Act was regulatory. 
    Id. at 748;
    cf.
    Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 347
    ¶ 20 (applying the Salerno standard).
    ¶13           The Salerno Court next used a two-step “heightened scrutiny”
    standard to determine whether the Bail Reform Act, although regulatory,
    nevertheless violated the due-process restriction on pretrial detention.
    
    Salerno, 481 U.S. at 748
    –50; Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 348
    ¶ 23. Under that
    standard, pretrial detention is constitutionally permissible if the
    government has both a “legitimate and compelling” purpose for restricting
    an accused’s liberty, and the restriction is “narrowly focuse[d] on a
    particularly acute problem.” 
    Salerno, 481 U.S. at 749
    –50, 752. The Court
    determined that the Act met this standard. 
    Id. at 750–51;
    cf. Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 345
    , 348 ¶¶ 9, 23 (applying the second Salerno standard to
    conclude that the categorical prohibition of bail for arrestees charged with
    sexual conduct with a minor under age fifteen violates due process).
    ¶14           Consistent with Salerno and Simpson II, we first examine
    whether Proposition 103’s categorical prohibition on bail for arrestees
    charged with sexual assault is regulatory or punitive. If the latter, the
    prohibition constitutes a per se due-process violation. See Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 347
    ¶ 20. If the restriction is regulatory, we must determine
    whether it nevertheless violates due process. Finally, we decide whether
    any due-process violation renders the restriction facially unconstitutional.
    II. Application here
    A. Regulation vs. punishment
    ¶15           In Simpson II, we concluded that Proposition 103’s categorical
    prohibition of bail for an arrestee charged with sexual conduct with a minor
    under age fifteen, when the proof is evident or presumption great that the
    person committed the offense, is regulatory rather than punitive. 
    Id. For the
    same reasons, Proposition 103’s identical prohibition on bail for persons
    charged with sexual assault is regulatory.
    6
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    B. Due process
    1. Legitimate and compelling purpose
    ¶16             The publicity pamphlet for Proposition 103 reflects that the
    measure’s purpose was both to ensure that sexual predators facing
    potential life sentences would be present for trial and to keep “rapists and
    child molesters” from endangering others while awaiting trial. The senator
    who sponsored the legislation placing Proposition 103 on the ballot
    explained to voters that “sexual predators . . . know they could be facing
    lifetime incarceration” and therefore “ha[ve] no incentive to ever return” to
    court, making Proposition 103 necessary to “keep dangerous sexual
    predators off our streets.” See Ariz. Sec’y of State, 2002 Publicity Pamphlet
    16 (2002), http://apps.azsos.gov/election/2002/Info/pubpamphlet/
    english/prop103.pdf (“Publicity Pamphlet”). Others echoed the senator,
    focusing on the need to “prevent the worst sexual predators from jumping
    bail or even simply walking our neighborhoods,” stopping “rapists and
    child molesters” from reoffending, and treating “bail for rapists and child
    molesters . . . like bail for murderers.” 
    Id. at 16–17.
    ¶17            Ensuring that an accused is present for trial serves a
    legitimate and compelling purpose. Cf. 
    Salerno, 481 U.S. at 749
    (“[A]n
    arrestee may be incarcerated until trial if he presents a risk of flight.”). And
    the government has an equally compelling interest in protecting victims
    and the public from those who would commit sexual assault while on pre-
    trial release. See 
    id. at 747
    (“There is no doubt that preventing danger to the
    community is a legitimate regulatory goal.”); Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 348
    ¶ 24 (finding that Proposition 103’s prohibition on bail for persons
    accused of sexual contact with a minor under fifteen years of age serves the
    legitimate and compelling purpose of crime prevention).
    ¶18           Goodman takes issue with our analysis in Simpson II and
    argues that Proposition 103 did not advance a legitimate and compelling
    government purpose because voters were misled by suggestions that,
    without the categorical prohibition, courts would have to grant bail to
    persons charged with Proposition 103 offenses. We disagree. The Publicity
    Pamphlet stated that without the measure, persons charged with
    Proposition 103 offenses would be “eligible for bail,” not automatically
    granted bail. Publicity Pamphlet, supra ¶ 16 at 16.
    7
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    ¶19            The prohibition on bail for those charged with sexual assault
    serves legitimate and compelling regulatory purposes and thus satisfies the
    first prong of the Salerno standard.
    2. Narrowly focused measure
    ¶20           Proposition 103’s categorical prohibition of bail for persons
    charged with sexual assault is “narrowly focused” if the proof is evident or
    the presumption great regarding the charge, and a sexual assault charge
    either presents an inherent flight risk or inherently demonstrates that the
    accused will likely commit a new dangerous crime while awaiting trial even
    with release conditions. Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 348
    –49 ¶¶ 26, 30.
    a. Flight risk
    ¶21            A sexual assault charge does not present an inherent flight
    risk. “Sexual assault” concerns an array of deviant behaviors and,
    depending on individual circumstances, punishment ranges from 5.25
    years’ imprisonment to life imprisonment. A.R.S. § 13-1406(B)–(D). The
    State does not cite any authority, and we are not aware of any, suggesting
    that the prospect of imprisonment for a non-capital offense inherently
    predicts that an accused will not appear for trial. Cf. Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 349
    ¶ 26 (“Historically, capital offense charges have been considered to
    present an inherent flight risk sufficient to justify bail denial.”). And even
    if the possibility of a life sentence presents an inherent flight risk, a concern
    expressed in the Publicity Pamphlet, supra ¶ 16, the prohibition is excessive
    as it sweeps in those arrestees facing only a term of years’ imprisonment if
    convicted.
    b. Future dangerousness while awaiting trial
    ¶22          To begin, the question here is not whether sexual assault is a
    deplorable crime that endangers and dehumanizes victims — it is, and it
    does. Cf. Coker v. Georgia, 
    433 U.S. 584
    , 597 (1977) (describing rape as
    “highly reprehensible” and “the ultimate violation of self” after homicide).
    The pertinent inquiry is whether a sexual-assault charge alone, when the
    proof is evident or the presumption great as to the charge, inherently
    demonstrates that the accused will pose an unmanageable risk of danger if
    released pending trial. See Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 349
    ¶ 30; cf. Kansas v.
    8
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    Hendricks, 
    521 U.S. 346
    , 358 (1997) (stating in the civil commitment context
    that “[a] finding of dangerousness, standing alone, is ordinarily not a
    sufficient ground” to justify commitment and that some additional factor is
    required to narrow the class to persons “who are unable to control their
    dangerousness”). For three reasons, we agree with Goodman that it does
    not.
    ¶23            First, Proposition 103 does not provide any procedures to
    determine whether a person charged with sexual assault would pose a
    danger if granted pre-trial release. Cf. Foucha v. Louisiana, 
    504 U.S. 71
    , 81–82
    (1992) (invalidating Louisiana’s continued detention of insanity acquittees
    who are no longer mentally ill because, “[u]nlike the sharply focused
    scheme” in Salerno, which involved individualized assessment, Louisiana’s
    scheme does not include “an adversary hearing at which the State must
    prove . . . that [the acquittee] is demonstrably dangerous to the
    community”); 
    Salerno, 481 U.S. at 742
    –43, 747, 750 (finding that the Bail
    Reform Act was narrowly focused on preventing danger to the community
    because, in part, a court could only order pre-trial detention after
    conducting a “full-blown adversary hearing” and finding that no
    conditions would “assure . . . the safety of any other person and the
    community”). A court’s finding that the proof is evident or the
    presumption great only shows a likelihood that an accused committed the
    charged sexual assault. See Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 346
    ¶ 16 (describing the
    standard as requiring substantial proof that the accused committed the
    charged crime). It does not address the likelihood that an accused would
    commit a new sexual assault or other dangerous crime if released pending
    trial. Cf. United States v. Scott, 
    450 F.3d 863
    , 874 (9th Cir. 2006) (“Neither
    Salerno nor any other case authorizes detaining someone in jail while
    awaiting trial, or the imposition of special bail conditions, based merely on
    the fact of arrest for a particular crime.”).
    ¶24           Second, nothing shows that most persons charged with sexual
    assault, or even a significant number, would likely commit another sexual
    assault or otherwise dangerous crime pending trial if released on bail. Cf.
    Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 348
    –49 ¶¶ 26, 30 (stating that any category of crime
    must serve as “a convincing proxy” for future dangerousness (citation and
    internal quotation marks omitted)). Indeed, this showing would be a
    difficult undertaking. Cf. 
    Schall, 467 U.S. at 279
    (“We have also recognized
    that a prediction of future criminal conduct is an experienced prediction
    9
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    based on a host of variables which cannot be readily codified.”) (internal
    quotation marks omitted).
    ¶25            The State points to recidivism rates among sex offenders as
    evidence of the likelihood that sexual assault arrestees would commit a new
    sexual assault pending trial if released on bail. The cited empirical studies
    are not illuminating, however, as they concern a wide variety of sex crimes
    besides sexual assault, arrive at disparate conclusions, and for the most part
    do not focus on the relatively short time period between arrest and trial.
    Regardless, none of the studies cited reflects that most convicted rapists re-
    offend, the highest number being 5.6% reoffending within five years of
    release from prison. See Matthew R. Durose et al., Recidivism of Prisoners
    Released in 30 States in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010, at 2 (U.S. Dep’t of
    Justice 2016), https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rprts05p0510_st.pdf.
    And the only cited study concerning accused rapists released on bail
    reflects that 3% committed another unspecified felony pending trial. See
    Brian A. Reaves, Felony Defendants in Large Urban Counties, 2009 — Statistical
    Tables 21 (U.S. Dep’t of Justice 2013), https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/
    pdf/fdluc09.pdf.
    ¶26            Smith v. Doe, 
    538 U.S. 84
    (2003), and McKune v. Lile, 
    536 U.S. 24
    (2002), relied on by Justice Bolick in his dissent, do not persuade us that
    recidivism rates justify a categorical denial of bail. See infra ¶ 45. At issue
    in Smith was whether Alaska’s registration requirement for convicted sex
    offenders imposed punishment so that any retroactive application would
    violate the Ex Post Facto Clause. 
    Smith, 538 U.S. at 89
    . Employing a test
    like the one used in Salerno to determine whether an act is regulatory or
    punitive, the Court concluded that the registration requirement was
    regulatory. 
    Id. at 105–06.
    In rejecting an argument that application of the
    registration requirement to all convicted sex offenders without regard to
    their future dangerousness was excessive in relation to a proper regulatory
    purpose, the Court noted that a sex-offense conviction could provide
    evidence of a “substantial risk of recidivism,” and that Alaska could
    “legislate with respect to convicted sex offenders as a class, rather than
    require individual determination of their dangerousness.” 
    Id. at 103–04.
    ¶27           But Smith did not establish that a state can regulate sex
    offenders as a class in every situation without violating due process, as
    Justice Bolick asserts. See infra ¶¶ 45–47. Indeed, the Court suggested the
    10
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    opposite by distinguishing Alaska’s sex-offender-registration requirement
    from a Kansas act that authorized civil commitment of sexually violent
    predators for a maximum of one year, subject to new commitment
    
    proceedings. 538 U.S. at 104
    (citing 
    Hendricks, 521 U.S. at 364
    ). In Hendricks,
    the Court rejected a due-process challenge to the Kansas act, reasoning that
    because it required an individualized finding of future dangerousness
    linked with a “mental abnormality” or “personality disorder,” it
    sufficiently “narrow[ed] the class of persons eligible for confinement to
    those who are unable to control their 
    dangerousness.” 521 U.S. at 358
    .
    (Contrary to Justice Bolick’s characterization, the Hendricks Court’s due-
    process analysis did not turn on the potential that sexually violent
    predators could be indefinitely confined. See infra ¶ 48.) The Smith Court
    concluded that a similarly individualized risk assessment was not
    necessary to uphold Alaska’s law as regulatory, noting that “[t]he State’s
    objective in Hendricks was involuntary (and potentially indefinite)
    confinement of particularly dangerous individuals,” which made
    individual assessments appropriate given “[t]he magnitude of the
    restraint.” 
    Smith, 538 U.S. at 104
    . The Court contrasted sex-offender
    registration as a “more minor condition” and concluded that in that context
    “the State can dispense with individual predictions of future
    dangerousness and allow the public to assess the risk on the basis of
    accurate, nonprivate information about the registrants’ convictions.” 
    Id. Pretrial detention
    is more like civil commitment than sex-offender
    registration, making this case closer to Hendricks. And Smith does not
    support a conclusion that the risk of recidivism by some persons on pretrial
    release justifies categorically dispensing with individual assessments of
    that risk.
    ¶28            McKune addressed whether requiring convicted sex offenders
    to admit their crimes as part of an in-prison rehabilitation program violated
    the Fifth Amendment privilege against 
    self-incrimination. 536 U.S. at 29
    .
    The Court began its analysis by noting that “[s]ex offenders are a serious
    threat in this Nation” and “[w]hen convicted sex offenders reenter society,
    they are much more likely than any other type of offender to be rearrested
    for a new rape or sexual assault.” 
    Id. at 33.
    The empirical study relied on
    by the Court for this conclusion, however, reflects that 7.7% of convicted
    rapists released from prison in 1983 were rearrested for rape within three
    years. See U.S. Dep’t of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of
    Prisoners Released in 1983, at 6 (1997), https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/
    11
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    pdf/rpr83.pdf. Although we share the McKune Court’s view that sex
    offenders are a “serious threat,” the post-conviction recidivism rates do not
    inherently demonstrate that a person charged with sexual assault will likely
    commit another sexual assault if released pending trial, particularly if
    conditions like GPS monitoring are imposed.
    ¶29            Third, alternatives exist “that would serve the state’s objective
    equally well at less cost to individual liberty.” Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 349
    ¶ 28. The Arizona Constitution already forbids bail for those charged with
    any felony when the proof is evident or the presumption great as to the
    charge, “the person charged poses a substantial danger to any other person
    or the community,” and “no conditions of release which may be imposed
    will reasonably assure the safety of the other person or the community.”
    Ariz. Const. art. 2, § 22(A)(3); see also A.R.S. § 13-3961(D) (codifying art. 2,
    § 22(A)(3)). Also, a court can set bail and impose restrictions intended to
    preserve public safety, like the GPS monitoring imposed on Goodman. See
    Ariz. Const. art. 2, § 22(B)(3) (“The purposes of bail and any conditions of
    release that are set by a judicial officer include . . . [p]rotecting the safety of
    the victim, any other person or the community.”).
    ¶30            The court of appeals reached a different conclusion from ours
    by mistakenly focusing on the dangerousness of sexual assault and not on
    whether a charge inherently predicts the commission of a new sexual
    assault or otherwise dangerous offense pending trial. 
    Wein, 242 Ariz. at 355
    ¶ 5; see also 
    Hendricks, 521 U.S. at 358
    ; Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 349
    ¶ 30. The
    court seized on a citation signal to interpret Simpson II as turning on the fact
    that sexual conduct with a minor under fifteen years of age could be
    committed with a victim’s consent and therefore “may involve a defendant
    who is not a danger to the community.” 
    Wein, 242 Ariz. at 353
    ¶¶ 7–8. The
    court reasoned that after Simpson II, a charge of sexual assault, which is
    always non-consensual, “fulfills the requirement for finding inherent
    dangerousness.” 
    Id. ¶ 9.
    Justice Bolick shares this view. See infra ¶ 42.
    ¶31           In retrospect, the court of appeals’ confusion is
    understandable. We should have immediately explained that just as
    commission of sexual conduct with a minor under fifteen years of age is not
    always dangerous, it does not inherently demonstrate future
    dangerousness pending trial. See Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 349
    ¶ 27. We made
    that point later in the opinion. See 
    id. ¶ 30
    (“[T]he state may deny bail
    12
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    categorically for crimes that inherently demonstrate future dangerousness”
    when the proof is evident or the presumption great, but “[w]hat it may not
    do, consistent with due process, is deny bail categorically for those accused
    of crimes that do not inherently predict future dangerousness.”); see also
    Morreno v. Hon. Brickner/State, 
    790 Ariz. Adv. Rep. 24
    ¶ 21 (May 2, 2018)
    (“The mere charge itself [in Simpson II] was not a convincing proxy for
    future dangerousness, and therefore not narrowly focused, because it swept
    in situations that are not predictive of future dangerousness.”).
    Justice Bolick’s view that showing proof evident or presumption great that
    an accused committed sexual assault alone demonstrates future
    dangerousness is at odds with Simpson II’s holding and also disregards key
    aspects of Salerno’s reasoning and holding. See infra ¶ 50; see also Morreno,
    
    790 Ariz. Adv. Rep. 24
    ¶ 21.
    ¶32           Contrary to the dissent’s assertion, infra ¶ 46, we reaffirm our
    view expressed in Simpson II that due process does not require
    individualized determinations in every 
    case. 241 Ariz. at 348
    ¶ 26. Indeed,
    we recently rejected a due-process challenge to article 2, section 22(A)(2), of
    the Arizona Constitution, which precludes bail “[f]or felony offenses
    committed when the person charged is already admitted to bail on a
    separate felony charge and where the proof is evident or the presumption
    great as to the present charge.” Morreno, 
    790 Ariz. Adv. Rep. 24
    ¶ 38. We
    concluded that the state had a legitimate and compelling interest in
    “preventing defendants from committing new felonies while on pretrial
    release from a prior felony charge,” and article 2, section 22(A)(2), narrowly
    focused on this objective by applying only to defendants who, in fact, likely
    reoffended while on release. 
    Id. ¶¶ 31,
    34 (citation and internal quotation
    marks omitted). “In such cases, an individualized determination serves no
    narrowing function and is therefore unnecessary.” 
    Id. ¶ 34.
    But unlike
    Morreno, the issue here is whether a sexual assault charge inherently
    predicts that a defendant will commit another dangerous offense pending
    trial. Due process requires an individualized assessment of this risk
    because it is not categorically demonstrated, as is the risk presented by a
    felon who has already reoffended while on pretrial release.
    ¶33         In sum, although Proposition 103 has legitimate and
    compelling regulatory purposes, its categorical prohibition of bail for
    persons charged with sexual assault, when the proof is evident or the
    presumption great as to the charge, is not narrowly focused on
    13
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    accomplishing those purposes. The Salerno standard is unmet, meaning the
    categorical prohibition of bail violates substantive due process. See
    Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 349
    ¶ 30.
    III. Facial unconstitutionality
    ¶34           The Arizona Attorney General, in an amicus role, and
    Justice Gould, in his dissent, argue that even if Proposition 103’s categorical
    prohibition on bail for those charged with sexual assault violates
    Goodman’s substantive-due-process rights, he failed to establish that the
    prohibition is facially unconstitutional. To succeed on a facial challenge, an
    admittedly difficult feat, “the challenger must establish that no set of
    circumstances exists under which the Act would be valid. The fact that the
    [Act] might operate unconstitutionally under some conceivable set of
    circumstances is insufficient to render it wholly invalid.” 
    Salerno, 481 U.S. at 745
    .
    ¶35          Here, Proposition 103’s categorical prohibition of bail for
    everyone charged with sexual assault deprives arrestees of their
    substantive-due-process right to either an individualized determination of
    future dangerousness or a valid proxy for it. See Morreno, 790 Ariz. Adv.
    Rep. 24 ¶ 15. There is “no set of circumstances” under which the
    prohibition would be valid because it lacks either of these features in every
    application.
    ¶36           Echoing his partial dissent in Morreno, Justice Gould asserts
    that (1) the prohibition here is not facially unconstitutional because it
    applies to arrestees who would, in fact, likely commit a new sexual assault
    while on pretrial release, and (2) we apply an overbreadth analysis that is
    properly confined to First Amendment cases. See 
    id. ¶¶42, 49
    (Gould, J.
    concurring); infra ¶¶ 54, 56. We reject these arguments for the same reasons
    we did in Morreno. See Morreno, 
    790 Ariz. Adv. Rep. 24
    ¶¶ 20–23.
    CONCLUSION
    ¶37           As in Simpson II, we do not lightly set aside citizen-enacted
    constitutional provisions, whether they are narrowly passed or approved
    “overwhelming[ly]” by Arizona’s voters (an irrelevancy for
    constitutionality purposes). Infra ¶ 39. Nevertheless, article 2, section
    14
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    Opinion of the Court
    22(A)(1), and § 13-3961(A)(2) are facially unconstitutional because they
    categorically prohibit bail without regard for individual circumstances. To
    be clear, courts can deny bail to a person charged with sexual assault when
    the proof is evident or the presumption great as to the charge and must do
    so when that person “poses a substantial danger to another person or the
    community.” A.R.S. § 13-3961(D). Before doing so, however, courts must
    engage in an individualized determination by conducting a § 13-3961(D)
    hearing. We affirm the superior court and vacate the court of appeals’
    opinion.
    15
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    JUSTICE BOLICK, joined by JUSTICES GOULD and LOPEZ,
    Dissenting
    BOLICK, J., joined by GOULD, J., and LOPEZ, J., dissenting.
    ¶38           Although our colleagues’ opinion has substantial merit, we
    conclude that the differences between the crime of sexual assault at issue
    here and the crime of sexual conduct with a minor at issue in Simpson II are
    of constitutional magnitude, justifying Arizona citizens’ determination that
    those who are likely to be adjudged guilty of sexual assault should be held
    without bail pending trial.
    ¶39            We begin by recognizing, as did the Court in Simpson II, that
    the challenged provision is part of our state’s organic law, whose review
    against federal constitutional challenges we undertake with “great care”
    and whose provisions “we strive whenever possible to 
    uphold.” 241 Ariz. at 345
    ¶ 8. In a close case, we should not expansively construe United States
    Supreme Court precedents to compel ourselves to invalidate a provision of
    our constitution; we should seek to the fullest extent possible to harmonize
    the two. We conclude that no such irreconcilable conflict exists here and
    that the majority too lightly sets aside the voters’ overwhelming
    determination that those who are shown to be likely guilty of sexual assault
    should not be released pending trial. The framework set forth by the United
    States Supreme Court in Salerno, while recognizing core liberty interests
    implicated by pretrial incarceration, emphasized that it has “repeatedly
    held that the Government’s regulatory interest in community safety can, in
    appropriate circumstances, outweigh an individual’s liberty 
    interest.” 481 U.S. at 748
    . This is one of those appropriate circumstances.
    ¶40          In Simpson II, we held that individual determinations of
    future dangerousness are not necessary in all cases, but that where pretrial
    incarceration is categorically required, the crime giving rise to such
    conditions must serve as a “convincing proxy for unmanageable flight risk
    or 
    dangerousness.” 241 Ariz. at 348
    ¶ 26 (quoting Lopez-Valenzuela v. Arpaio,
    
    770 F.3d 772
    , 786 (9th Cir. 2014)). The Court’s determination that sexual
    conduct with a minor was not an adequate proxy for dangerousness was
    based on the crime’s definition, which encompassed consensual activity so
    that dangerousness was not “inherent” in the crime. 
    Id. at 349
    ¶¶ 26–27
    (“The crime can be committed by a person of any age, and may be
    consensual,” thereby “sweep[ing] in situations where teenagers engage in
    consensual sex. In such instances, evident proof or presumption great that
    the defendant committed the crime would suggest little or nothing about
    16
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    JUSTICE BOLICK, joined by JUSTICES GOULD and LOPEZ,
    Dissenting
    the defendant’s danger to anyone.”). The Court’s analysis made clear that
    where a crime is not a convincing proxy for dangerousness, an individual
    assessment of dangerousness is necessary to deny pretrial release. But
    where a crime is a convincing proxy for dangerousness, a determination by
    proof evident or presumption great that a defendant committed the crime
    is sufficient to establish dangerousness and to sustain a categorical
    prohibition of bail.
    ¶41            Sexual assault is by definition an extremely dangerous crime.
    As this Court highlighted in Simpson II, absence of consent is a defining
    feature of sexual assault. 
    Id. ¶ 27
    (citing A.R.S. § 13-1406(A) defining sexual
    assault as “intentionally or knowingly engaging in sexual intercourse or
    oral sexual contact . . . without consent of such person”). Our statutes
    carefully define and circumscribe the term “without consent,” which can
    occur in four discrete circumstances: where the victim (a) “is coerced by the
    immediate use or threatened use of force against a person or property”;
    (b) “is incapable of consent by reason of mental disorder, mental defect,
    drugs, alcohol, sleep[,] or any other similar impairment of cognition and
    such condition is known or should reasonably have been known to the
    defendant”; (c) “is intentionally deceived as to the nature of the act”; or
    (d) “is intentionally deceived to erroneously believe that the person is the
    victim’s spouse.” A.R.S. § 13-1401(A)(7). Thus, by definition, sexual assault
    necessarily involves the sexual violation of a person through force,
    coercion, or deception. As such, it is an inherently dangerous crime, and
    proof evident or presumption great that a defendant has committed the
    crime demonstrates that the defendant is dangerous.
    ¶42           As noted in Simpson II, the crime at issue there was defined to
    encompass both consensual and nonconsensual 
    acts. 241 Ariz. at 349
    ¶ 27.
    Here the crime is defined only to encompass nonconsensual sexual
    violations. The Court highlighted that distinction because the risk of future
    dangerousness encompasses not only the likelihood of recidivism but the
    inherent danger and human impact of the crime. The majority now
    “explain[s]” that the nature of the crime is irrelevant to the risk of future
    dangerousness. Supra ¶ 31. In that way, it removes from the constitutional
    equation that sexual assault is by definition a uniquely horrific act, in which
    a person’s most intimate parts are violated through force, coercion, or
    deception.
    17
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    JUSTICE BOLICK, joined by JUSTICES GOULD and LOPEZ,
    Dissenting
    ¶43           As the United States Supreme Court recognized in Coker v.
    Georgia, sexual assault
    is highly reprehensible, both in a moral sense and in its almost
    total contempt for the personal integrity and autonomy of the
    female victim and for the latter’s privilege of choosing those
    with whom intimate relationships are to be established. Short
    of homicide, it is the “ultimate violation of self.” It is also a violent
    crime because it normally involves force, or the threat of force
    or intimidation, to overcome the will and the capacity of the
    victim to resist. Rape is very often accompanied by physical
    injury to the female and can also inflict mental and
    psychological damage.              Because it undermines the
    community’s sense of security, there is public injury as well.
    
    433 U.S. 584
    , 597–98 (1977) (emphasis added) (quoting Lisa Brodyaga et al.,
    U.S. Dep’t of Justice, Rape and Its Victims: A Report for Citizens Health
    Facilities, and Criminal Justice Agencies (1975)).
    ¶44          Unsurprisingly, then, the Supreme Court has recognized that
    sexual crimes justify distinctive legislative treatment in the confinement
    context.
    ¶45            In Smith v. Doe, 
    538 U.S. 84
    (2003), the Court upheld a state’s
    sex-offender registry against an Ex Post Facto Clause challenge. Although
    a distinct provision of the Constitution, the Ex Post Facto Clause is closely
    related to substantive due process because it likewise “forbids the
    application of any new punitive measure to a crime already consummated.”
    Kansas v. Hendricks, 
    521 U.S. 346
    , 370 (1997) (quoting Lindsey v. Washington,
    
    301 U.S. 397
    , 401 (1937)). In Smith, the challengers argued the law was
    excessive in relation to its regulatory purpose because it “applies to all
    convicted sex offenders without regard to their future 
    dangerousness,” 538 U.S. at 103
    , which parallels Goodman‘s argument here. The Court held
    that the state reasonably “could conclude that a conviction for a sex offense
    provides evidence of substantial risk of recidivism.” 
    Id. Specifically, the
    Court cited findings justifying “grave concerns over the high rate of
    recidivism among convicted sex offenders and their dangerousness as a class.”
    
    Id. (emphasis added);
    see also McKune v. Lile, 
    536 U.S. 24
    , 32–33 (2002) (“Sex
    offenders are a serious threat in this Nation. . . . When convicted sex
    18
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    JUSTICE BOLICK, joined by JUSTICES GOULD and LOPEZ,
    Dissenting
    offenders reenter society, they are much more likely than any other type of
    offender to be rearrested for a new rape or sexual assault. . . . [T]he rate of
    recidivism of untreated offenders has been estimated to be as high as
    80%.”).
    ¶46           The majority acknowledges that sex offenders constitute a
    serious threat but is unconvinced that recidivism statistics “inherently
    demonstrate that a person charged with sexual assault will likely commit
    another sexual assault if released pending trial.” Supra ¶ 28. That
    conclusion misstates the constitutional requirement and implies the
    necessity of individualized assessments in every case, which we expressly
    rejected in Simpson 
    II. 241 Ariz. at 348
    ¶ 26 (“[W]e do not read Salerno or
    other decisions to require such individualized determinations in every
    case,” but rather to require that its procedure serve as a convincing proxy
    for dangerousness.); accord State v. Furgal, 
    13 A.3d 272
    , 278–79 (N.H. 2010),
    cited with approval in Simpson 
    II, 241 Ariz. at 349
    ¶ 26. Rather, the
    Constitution requires only that the state reasonably could conclude that the
    risk of dangerousness requires pretrial confinement of those who are
    determined to have likely committed sexual assault. See, e.g., 
    Smith, 538 U.S. at 103
    (“The Ex Post Facto Clause does not preclude a State from
    making reasonable categorical judgments that conviction of specified
    crimes should entail particular regulatory consequences.”); see also 
    id. at 104
    (“The State’s determination to legislate with respect to convicted sex
    offenders as a class, rather than require individual determination of their
    dangerousness,” did not violate the clause.).
    ¶47           Smith and related cases establish that a state may categorically
    regulate sex offenders as a class for public safety purposes, both because of
    the uniquely horrific nature of the crimes and sex offenders’ propensity for
    recidivism. Indeed, while the statute in Smith exposed all sex offenders to
    special burdens, the provision here deals only with a particularly heinous
    and dangerous subcategory of sex offenders. Nor does it amount to a
    substantial difference that Smith involved convicted sex offenders, given
    that the bail exclusion here applies only to defendants who are
    demonstrated at an adversarial hearing to have committed sexual assault
    by proof evident or presumption great. As we noted in Simpson II, the
    procedure to determine proof evident or presumption great is “robust,”
    requiring a prompt and complete adversarial hearing with specific factual
    19
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    JUSTICE BOLICK, joined by JUSTICES GOULD and LOPEZ,
    Dissenting
    findings in which “the state’s burden ‘is met if all of the evidence, fully
    considered by the court, makes it plain and clear to the understanding . . .
    [and] dispassionate judgment of the court that the accused committed’” the
    
    crime. 241 Ariz. at 346
    ¶ 16 (alteration in original) (quoting Simpson v.
    Owens, 
    207 Ariz. 261
    , 274 ¶ 40 (App. 2004)).
    ¶48           The majority notes that Smith distinguished the earlier
    opinion in Hendricks, supra ¶ 27, which upheld a statute requiring an
    individualized assessment of dangerousness for involuntary civil
    commitment for sexual offenders who were likely to recidivate due to
    mental abnormalities or personality disorders. 
    Hendricks, 521 U.S. at 350
    –
    52. The scheme at issue differed from the prohibition of bail here in two
    crucial respects. First, it involved involuntary civil commitment after, and
    in addition to, the criminal sentence. 
    Id. at 351–52.
    Further, the period of
    involuntary commitment was potentially indefinite. 
    Id. at 364;
    see also
    
    Foucha, 504 U.S. at 83
    (striking down “indefinite detention of insanity
    acquittees” in the absence of sufficient safeguards). As the Court observed
    in Smith, the “magnitude of the restraint made individual assessment
    
    appropriate.” 538 U.S. at 104
    .
    ¶49            In contrast to Hendricks, which exposed sex offenders to
    potentially indefinite involuntary commitment after having fully served
    their sentences, the bail prohibition here applies only to defendants who by
    proof evident and presumption great are likely to have committed sexual
    assault and whose pretrial confinement will be only temporary. It thus
    provides greater protection than the baseline requirement of a probable
    cause finding for pretrial confinement upheld by the Supreme Court in
    Gerstein v. Pugh, 
    420 U.S. 103
    , 114 (1975). Additionally, the Arizona
    Constitution, statutes, and rules guarantee a speedy trial. See Ariz. Const.
    art. 2, § 24 (guaranteeing the right of criminal defendants to speedy trial);
    A.R.S. § 13-114(1) (same); see also Ariz. Const. art 2, § 2.1(A)(10)
    (guaranteeing the right of crime victims to speedy trial); A.R.S. § 13-4435(A)
    (same); A.R.S. § 13-4435(D) (limiting continuances to “extraordinary
    circumstances” and when “indispensable to the interests of justice”). The
    Arizona Rules of Criminal Procedure prescribe time for trials, including
    150 days after arraignment for defendants in custody. Ariz. R. Crim. P.
    8.2(a)(1). Rule 8.6 provides that the court must dismiss any prosecution
    when it determines that the applicable time limits are violated. Those
    20
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    JUSTICE BOLICK, joined by JUSTICES GOULD and LOPEZ,
    Dissenting
    protections ensure that defendants adjudged by proof evident or
    presumption great to have committed sexual assault will be subjected only
    to the pretrial detention necessary to protect the public against dangerous
    criminal acts.
    ¶50           For all of those reasons, we conclude that the bail-exclusion
    provision here fits comfortably within the Salerno framework. First, the
    provision applies to “a specific category of extremely limited offenses.”
    
    Salerno, 481 U.S. at 750
    . Indeed, it is far more limited than the array of
    offenses for which bail was restricted in the law at issue in Salerno. 
    Id. at 747
    (citing 18 U.S.C. § 3142(f), which includes crimes of violence, offenses
    with a penalty of life imprisonment or death, serious drug offenses, and
    certain repeat offenders)). Second, it is narrowly focused on “preventing
    danger to the community,” 
    id. at 747
    , because it is limited to a crime that the
    Supreme Court has recognized as particularly dangerous and whose
    perpetrators are likely to commit similar crimes in the future, see, e.g., 
    Smith, 538 U.S. at 103
    –04; supra ¶¶ 45–47. Third, like the “full-blown adversary”
    hearing in 
    Salerno, 481 U.S. at 750
    , pretrial detention in Arizona is preceded
    by a hearing requiring not merely probable cause but proof evident or
    presumption great. Although the Bail Reform Act at issue in Salerno
    included individualized assessments of dangerousness, 
    id., the nature
    of
    the crime here, as discussed above, justifies categorical treatment so that an
    adversarial hearing regarding probable guilt serves as an ample proxy for
    dangerousness. Fourth, the duration of pretrial detention is limited by
    speedy-trial guarantees and rules. See 
    id. at 747
    . Finally, if any doubt exists
    that these safeguards “suffice to repel a facial challenge,” the Court in
    Salerno admonishes that the protections sustained there are “more
    exacting” and “far exceed what we found necessary to effect limited pretrial
    detention” in other cases. See 
    id. at 752.
    ¶51            Simpson II also suggests that the existence of less-restrictive
    alternatives may demonstrate the bail exclusion is not narrowly focused in
    some 
    instances. 241 Ariz. at 349
    ¶ 28. However, we emphasized that
    individualized determinations of dangerousness are unnecessary if the
    crime is a convincing proxy for unmanageable flight risk or dangerousness.
    
    Id. at 348–49
    ¶ 26 (noting that historically, bail is often denied categorically
    to capital defendants due to flight risk). We expressly recognized that
    “certain crimes . . . may present such inherent risk of future dangerousness
    21
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    JUSTICE BOLICK, joined by JUSTICES GOULD and LOPEZ,
    Dissenting
    that bail might appropriately be denied by proof evident or presumption
    great that the defendant committed the crime.” 
    Id. at 349
    ¶ 26. As discussed
    above, the Supreme Court’s decisions in Smith and McKune make clear that
    sexual assault is a uniquely grave and dangerous crime. The statutory
    definition limiting sexual assault to nonconsensual acts narrowly focuses
    the bail exclusion to an especially serious and inherently dangerous crime.
    The extensive safeguards further ensure narrow focus and satisfy the
    Salerno standards. Indeed, we held recently in Morreno that individualized
    dangerousness determinations are unnecessary to categorically deny bail to
    felony defendants who are arrested for any new felonies before trial. 
    790 Ariz. Adv. Rep. 24
    ¶¶ 34–35. We therefore conclude that the majority
    unnecessarily oversteps by concluding that federal precedent compels it to
    invalidate a provision of our constitution.
    ¶52          If it is presented the opportunity to do so, we urge the
    Supreme Court to review this decision. If we are correct that its precedents
    allow Arizona to deny pretrial release to those who by proof evident or
    presumption great have committed sexual assault, this Court has
    unnecessarily invalidated a part of our organic law. As a matter of comity
    and federalism, we urge the Supreme Court to correct the error if this Court
    has misread its precedents. In the meantime, with great respect to our
    colleagues, we dissent.
    22
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    JUSTICE GOULD, joined by JUSTICE LOPEZ,
    Dissenting
    GOULD, J., joined by LOPEZ, J., dissenting.
    ¶53            For the reasons set forth in my partial dissent in Morreno v.
    Hon. Brickner/State, 
    790 Ariz. Adv. Rep. 24
    ¶¶ 39–71, I also dissent from the
    majority’s decision today. Specifically, I conclude the sexual assault bond
    restriction contained in article 2, section 22(A)(1), of the Arizona
    Constitution (and codified in A.R.S. § 13-3961(A)(2)) is facially
    constitutional. Additionally, while I do not join in Justice Bolick’s
    dissenting opinion to the extent he applies the overbreadth analysis used in
    Simpson II, I do join in his analysis and conclusion that the bond provision
    at issue here is facially constitutional.
    ¶54           As it did in Simpson II, the majority abandons the facial
    standard set forth in 
    Salerno, 481 U.S. at 745
    , substituting the overbreadth
    standard used by the Ninth Circuit in Lopez-Valenzuela, 
    770 F.3d 772
    . See
    Morreno, 
    790 Ariz. Adv. Rep. 24
    ¶¶ 39–45 (discussing Salerno’s standard for
    facial challenges and Simpson II’s adoption of the overbreadth standard
    used in Lopez-Valenzuela). Thus, applying Simpson II’s overbreadth
    standard, this Court strikes down yet another offense–based bond
    provision. Now, the only remaining offense–based restriction is for capital
    offenses. Undoubtedly, this provision cannot survive the majority’s
    overbreadth test. See Morreno, 
    790 Ariz. Adv. Rep. 24
    ¶¶ 64, 67–68, 70
    (discussing how offense-based bond restrictions cannot survive the Simpson
    II overbreadth standard).
    ¶55            Here, like Simpson II, the majority contends that to be facially
    valid, sexual assault must serve as a “valid proxy” for future dangerousness
    and “inherently demonstrate[] that [an] accused will likely commit a new
    dangerous crime while awaiting trial.” See supra ¶¶ 20, 35. Thus, if there
    are instances where a defendant charged with sexual assault might remain
    crime–free on pretrial release, the crime cannot serve as a “valid proxy” for
    future dangerousness.
    ¶56             Not only does the majority’s approach create an impossible
    standard for “inherently dangerous” crimes, it essentially turns Salerno on
    its head. In contrast to the majority approach, Salerno provides that “[t]he
    fact that the [act] might operate unconstitutionally under some conceivable
    set of circumstances is insufficient to render it wholly invalid.” 
    Salerno, 481 U.S. at 745
    . Thus, applying Salerno, the subject provision survives a facial
    23
    STATE V. HON. WEIN (GOODMAN)
    JUSTICE GOULD, joined by JUSTICE LOPEZ,
    Dissenting
    challenge because there are instances where a defendant who commits
    sexual assault poses a danger to the victim or the community. Indeed, as
    Justice Bolick notes in his dissent, the United States Supreme Court has
    expressly recognized that sex offenders are a “serious threat” to this
    “Nation,” and that such offenders pose a risk of recidivism. See supra ¶¶
    44-46 (Bolick, J., dissenting). Admittedly, this does not mean that all sex
    offenders will reoffend, or that even most will reoffend. But any offender
    charged with sexual assault, when the proof of the offense is evident or the
    presumption great, inherently presents a risk of danger to society, and the
    pronouncements of the United States Supreme Court do show that at least
    some sex offenders almost certainly will commit new crimes while on
    pretrial release. Under Salerno, this is sufficient to survive a facial challenge.
    Supra ¶ 54.
    ¶57           In abandoning Salerno, the majority has effectively imposed a
    due process requirement that all determinations denying pretrial release
    must include an individualized determination of future dangerousness.
    There is, of course, no authority for this requirement. Indeed, Salerno did
    not impose such a requirement. See Morreno, 
    790 Ariz. Adv. Rep. 24
    ¶¶ 59–
    62.
    ¶58           In response, the majority asserts that Morreno upheld a
    categorical bond restriction that did not provide an individualized
    determination. Supra ¶ 32. While true, Morreno addressed a bond
    restriction involving defendants who had already been charged with a
    felony and, while on pretrial release, committed another felony. Of course,
    preventing defendants from committing new crimes while on pretrial
    release is the very objective the voters sought to achieve in passing the
    subject bond provision, particularly when a defendant has been charged
    with a serious crime such as sexual assault. Supra ¶¶ 4, 16.
    ¶59           Applying the Salerno standard, I would deny Goodman’s
    facial challenge. Following Salerno does not leave Goodman without a
    remedy. As I noted in Morreno, he can assert that the sexual assault
    provision is unconstitutional as applied to him. 
    790 Ariz. Adv. Rep. 24
    ¶
    69. Therefore, I dissent.
    24