United States v. Furth ( 2021 )


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  •          This opinion is subject to revision before publication
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE   ARMED FORCES
    _______________
    UNITED STATES
    Appellee
    v.
    Kevin M. FURTH, Second Lieutenant
    United States Army, Appellant
    No. 20-0289
    Crim. App. No. 20180191
    Argued January 13, 2021—Decided April 26, 2021
    Military Judge: Christopher E. Martin
    For Appellant: Major Scott A. Martin (argued); Colonel Mi-
    chael C. Friess, Lieutenant Colonel Angela D. Swilley, and
    Captain Paul T. Shirk.
    For Appellee: Captain Marc J. Emond (argued); Colonel Ste-
    ven P. Haight, Lieutenant Colonel Wayne H. Williams, and
    Major Dustin B. Myrie (on brief); Captain Allison Rowley.
    Judge OHLSON delivered the opinion of the Court, in
    which Chief Judge STUCKY and Judge SPARKS joined.
    Judge MAGGS filed a separate dissenting opinion, in
    which Judge HARDY joined.
    _______________
    Judge OHLSON delivered the opinion of the Court.
    A military judge sitting as a general court-martial con-
    victed Appellant, pursuant to his pleas, of one specification of
    absence without leave (AWOL) and one specification of
    wrongful appropriation, in violation of Articles 86 and 121,
    Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ), 
    10 U.S.C. §§ 886
    ,
    921 (2012). The convening authority approved Appellant’s ad-
    judged sentence of a reprimand, confinement for three
    months, and dismissal from the service. The United States
    Army Court of Criminal Appeals (CCA) affirmed the findings
    and only so much of the sentence as provided for confinement
    for three months and a reprimand. 1 United States v. Furth,
    No. ARMY 20180191, 
    2020 CCA LEXIS 149
    , at *8, 
    2020 WL 2154030
    , at *3 (A. Ct. Crim. App. May 4, 2020) (per curiam)
    1   See infra note 5.
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Opinion of the Court
    (summary disposition) (unpublished). We granted review on
    the following issue:
    Whether Appellant received effective assistance of
    counsel when he was erroneously advised that his
    pending resignation request, if approved, would va-
    cate his guilty plea.
    United States v. Furth, 
    80 M.J. 319
     (C.A.A.F. 2020) (order
    granting review). We assume without deciding that trial de-
    fense counsel’s performance was deficient, but conclude that
    Appellant has failed to establish prejudice. We therefore af-
    firm the lower court’s decision that there was no ineffective
    assistance of counsel in this case.
    I. Background
    Appellant, a second lieutenant in the United States Army,
    was a Signal Corps officer. He received orders requiring him
    to report to Fort Benning, Georgia, for jump school in March
    2016, and then report to Fort Bragg, North Carolina, in April
    2016. However, Appellant did not report for duty at either
    location or at any other military installation. Nevertheless,
    for approximately six months he knowingly continued to draw
    military pay totaling more than $27,000. In December 2017—
    more than twenty-one months after he was ordered to report
    for duty—Appellant finally turned himself into the Provost
    Marshal’s Office at Fort Bragg. By the time of his surrender,
    Appellant had spent all but ninety-one cents in his bank
    account.
    The Government charged Appellant with one specification
    of desertion, three specifications of AWOL, and one specifica-
    tion of larceny of military pay and allowances in excess of
    $500, in violation of Articles 85, 2 86, and 121, UCMJ. Approx-
    imately two weeks after preferral of these charges, Appellant
    submitted a request for Resignation for the Good of the Ser-
    vice (RFGOS). 3 While the RFGOS was pending, the conven-
    ing authority referred Appellant’s case to a general court-
    martial and Appellant’s entire chain of command—including
    2   
    10 U.S.C. § 885
     (2012).
    3 The Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Review
    Boards (DASA-RB) served as the approval authority for this
    RFGOS request.
    2
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Opinion of the Court
    the convening authority—recommended disapproval of the
    RFGOS.
    Prior to trial, defense counsel advised Appellant that if his
    RFGOS request was approved following the conclusion of the
    court-martial, the court-martial proceedings would be va-
    cated because the convening authority could not take action
    inconsistent with the terms of the RFGOS. Trial defense
    counsel further informed Appellant that “he would lose the
    favorable terms” of a pretrial agreement if Appellant obtained
    a delay in the court-martial proceedings in order to first learn
    the disposition of the RFGOS request. Appellant then agreed
    to plead guilty to three AWOL specifications 4 and one specifi-
    cation of wrongful appropriation, with a sentence cap of nine
    months in prison. The military judge accepted Appellant’s
    guilty pleas and sentenced him to a reprimand, confinement
    for three months, and dismissal.
    In May 2018—just over one month after Appellant’s plea
    proceedings concluded—the DASA-RB approved Appellant’s
    RFGOS request, directed that the court-martial findings and
    sentence be vacated, and imposed an Under Other Than
    Honorable Conditions discharge. The Army then issued a DD
    Form 214 on June 6, 2018, characterizing Appellant’s
    discharge as Under Other Than Honorable Conditions.
    Despite the issued DD Form 214, the convening authority
    subsequently approved the adjudged court-martial sentence.
    Following the convening authority’s action, the DASA-RB
    rescinded her approval of the RFGOS in March 2019, and the
    Army purported to void Appellant’s DD Form 214 in July
    2019. 5
    4  The military judge consolidated the three AWOL specifica-
    tions into one.
    5 The CCA concluded that the Army’s documentation for voiding
    the DD Form 214 was “unsupported by any authority purporting to
    rescind a valid administrative discharge.” Furth, 
    2020 CCA LEXIS 149
    , at *7, 
    2020 WL 2154030
    , at *3. Because the CCA concluded
    that Appellant received “a valid administrative discharge” and the
    Army’s “later efforts to recall [A]ppellant to active duty had no ef-
    fect,” the court “set aside [A]ppellant’s dismissal [in order] to give
    effect to the administrative discharge.” 
    Id.
     at *7–8, 
    2020 WL 2154030
    , at *3.
    3
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Opinion of the Court
    On appeal to the CCA, Appellant claimed that he received
    ineffective assistance of counsel based on his counsel’s erro-
    neous advice about the RFGOS. In support of this claim, he
    submitted a declaration stating: “If I had known that pleading
    guilty would have prevented me from fully benefitting from
    an approved RFGOS, I would not have pleaded guilty prior to
    receiving a decision on my RFGOS.” The CCA concluded that
    Appellant did not establish ineffective assistance of counsel.
    Furth, 
    2020 CCA LEXIS 149
    , at *1 n.1, 
    2020 WL 2154030
    , at
    *1 n.1.
    We granted review to determine whether trial defense
    counsel’s advice about the RFGOS during the plea proceed-
    ings constituted ineffective assistance of counsel. 6 Furth, 80
    M.J. at 319.
    II. Standard of Review
    We conduct a de novo review of ineffective assistance of
    counsel claims. United States v. Carter, 
    79 M.J. 478
    , 480
    (C.A.A.F. 2020).
    III. Applicable Law
    When evaluating claims of ineffective assistance of coun-
    sel, this Court applies the framework from Strickland v.
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984). United States v. Edmond,
    
    63 M.J. 343
    , 345 (C.A.A.F. 2006). Under Strickland, an appel-
    lant bears the burden of demonstrating that (a) defense coun-
    sel’s performance was deficient, and (b) this deficient perfor-
    mance was prejudicial. Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 687
    .
    “The Strickland test applies in the context of [cases involv-
    ing] guilty pleas,” such as this one. United States v. Rose,
    
    71 M.J. 138
    , 143 (C.A.A.F. 2012). However, the prejudice in-
    quiry “is modified to focus on whether the ‘ineffective perfor-
    mance affected the outcome of the plea process.’ ” United
    States v. Bradley, 
    71 M.J. 13
    , 16 (C.A.A.F. 2012) (quoting Hill
    v. Lockhart, 
    474 U.S. 53
    , 56–58 (1985)). That is, the appellant
    6 We decline to address    any claim that trial defense counsel was
    ineffective for failing to seek a continuance in the court-martial pro-
    ceedings pending the disposition of the RFGOS request. Such a
    claim is outside the scope of the granted issue. See, e.g., United
    States v. Bodoh, 
    78 M.J. 231
    , 233 n.1 (C.A.A.F. 2019).
    4
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Opinion of the Court
    must establish prejudice by showing that there is a “reasona-
    ble probability that, but for counsel’s errors, [the appellant]
    would not have pleaded guilty and would have insisted on go-
    ing to trial.” Lee v. United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 1958
    , 1965 (2017)
    (citation omitted) (internal quotation marks omitted); Brad-
    ley, 71 M.J. at 16. “The Supreme Court’s references to reason-
    able probabilities … clearly establish that the [Strickland
    prejudice] test is objective,” which we review de novo. United
    States v. Murray, 
    42 M.J. 174
    , 178 (C.A.A.F. 1995); see also
    Rose, 71 M.J. at 143 (looking at question of Strickland “prej-
    udice de novo” (citation omitted) (internal quotation marks
    omitted)). 7
    Standing alone, an appellant’s “post hoc assertions …
    about how he would have pleaded but for his attorney’s
    deficiencies” are not enough to establish prejudice. Lee, 137 S.
    Ct. at 1967. Courts must also “look to contemporaneous
    evidence to substantiate [an appellant’s] expressed
    preferences.” Id. This is so because “the [appellant] has an
    incentive to claim, in retrospect, that the result of the plea
    process would have been different regardless of whether that
    claim is, in fact, true.” United States v. Murillo, 
    927 F.3d 808
    ,
    815 (4th Cir. 2019).
    IV. Analysis
    We will assume without deciding that counsel’s perfor-
    mance was deficient here, and instead, we will resolve this
    case by analyzing and applying the prejudice prong of the
    Strickland test. See United States v. Captain, 
    75 M.J. 99
    , 103
    (C.A.A.F. 2016) (stating that “[i]f it is easier to dispose of an
    ineffectiveness claim on the ground of lack of sufficient preju-
    dice, … that course should be followed” (alterations in origi-
    nal) (citation omitted) (internal quotation marks omitted)).
    “[I]n order to satisfy the ‘prejudice’ requirement, [an ap-
    pellant] must show that there is a reasonable probability
    that, but for the counsel’s errors, he would not have pleaded
    guilty and would have insisted on going to trial.” Hill,
    7  We therefore are not making factual findings when we assess
    reasonable probabilities for the Strickland prejudice prong. We in-
    stead are examining all of the evidence in the record in the course
    of conducting a de novo review of this issue.
    5
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Opinion of the Court
    474 U.S. at 59 (footnote omitted). Based on our review of the
    totality of the evidence in this case, and for the reasons cited
    below, we conclude that Appellant has failed to meet his bur-
    den despite his post hoc assertion that he “would not have
    pleaded guilty prior to receiving a decision on [his] RFGOS.” 8
    First, the plea agreement that Appellant now claims he
    would have rejected was quite favorable. To begin with, it pro-
    tected him from convictions for desertion and larceny exceed-
    ing $500 and instead allowed him to plead to the lesser of-
    fenses of AWOL and wrongful appropriation. The latter
    convictions presumably would be far more palatable to pro-
    spective future employers. Further, the plea agreement sig-
    nificantly limited Appellant’s sentencing exposure. Specifi-
    cally, instead of a maximum term of imprisonment of twelve
    years, the quantum portion of the plea agreement limited any
    sentence of confinement to nine months.
    Second, the Government’s case for desertion and larceny
    was extremely strong. See Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1966 (“Where a
    defendant has no plausible chance of an acquittal at trial, it
    is highly likely that he will accept a plea if the Government
    offers one.”). After all, Appellant clearly did not report for
    duty and he clearly waited over a year and a half to surrender
    to military authorities. See Manual for Courts-Martial,
    United States pt. IV, para. 9.c.(1)(a), (c)(i), (iii) (2016 ed.)
    (MCM). He also clearly spent military pay in the amount of
    $27,112.13 that he was not entitled to receive. See MCM pt.
    IV, para. 46.c.(1)(a), (f)(i), (ii), (iii)(C).
    Third, the record reflects no compelling extenuating or
    mitigating circumstances in this case that would have re-
    sulted in a reduced sentence. 9 Indeed, Appellant admitted
    that “no facts … justif[ied] his conduct.” Although young, Ap-
    8  Under Lee, an appellant’s post hoc assertions, whether as-
    serted by declaration or determined at a factfinding hearing, are
    not dispositive of Strickland prejudice because the Supreme Court
    has held that appellate courts should “look to contemporaneous ev-
    idence to substantiate” these assertions. 
    137 S. Ct. 1967
    .
    9 Appellant stipulated to being “mentally responsible and com-
    petent” at all relevant times and that “[n]o current mental health
    diagnosis … affected his ability to act willfully.”
    6
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Opinion of the Court
    pellant was a commissioned officer in the United States mili-
    tary and he rightly would have understood that he would be
    held to a high standard. See United States v. Meakin, 
    78 M.J. 396
    , 404 (C.A.A.F. 2019) (“[I]t has historically been the case
    that officers are held to a higher standard of behavior.”).
    Fourth, Appellant was informed that if he did not accept
    the plea offer in a timely manner, he would lose the benefit of
    at least some of its favorable terms. Appellant also under-
    stood that he did not have the unilateral ability to continue
    the court-martial proceedings. 10 Indeed, when informed of
    Appellant’s pending RFGOS, the military judge stated that
    he would “proceed with trial as scheduled unless or until …
    told otherwise.” Because there are no time lines for approval
    or disapproval of a RFGOS request, it is highly unlikely that
    either the Government or the military judge would have been
    willing to pause the proceedings indefinitely for such a
    straightforward case.
    Fifth, everyone in Appellant’s chain of command had rec-
    ommended disapproval of the RFGOS request. Appellant ar-
    10 At oral argument, Appellant’s counsel asserted that had trial
    defense counsel properly understood the law regarding the effects
    of the RFGOS, he would have legitimately protracted the pretrial
    proceedings so that the court-martial did not commence until after
    the DASA-RB had taken action on the request. For example,
    Appellant argues that requesting and conducting an Article 32,
    UCMJ, 
    10 U.S.C. § 832
     (2012), hearing, seeking and obtaining
    discovery, and litigating issues arising from that discovery, likely
    would have delayed the start of the trial beyond the date of the
    RFGOS approval. However, this argument is based on hindsight
    and is far too speculative, both in regard to the actual amount of
    time these procedures would have taken in this very clear-cut,
    straightforward case, and in regard to how trial defense counsel
    actually would have proceeded. Indeed, apropos the latter point, the
    Government’s brief correctly notes that “[t]here is no required
    timeframe upon which the DASA-RB must act on a RFGOS,” Brief
    for Appellee at 16, United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289 (C.A.A.F.
    Oct. 26, 2020), the defense did not undertake any actions to
    ascertain when the DASA-RB would make her decision, and, as
    noted in the body of the text above, Appellant was aware that the
    military judge would not wait for the RFGOS decision before
    beginning the trial and that the Government would not look
    favorably at defense efforts to obtain a delay.
    7
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Opinion of the Court
    gues (a) this point is irrelevant and (b) even if it were rele-
    vant, this point is not controlling because in some un-
    published CCA cases RFGOS requests have been approved
    despite the chain of command’s disapproval recommendation.
    We are not persuaded. The anecdotal evidence now cited by
    the defense does not demonstrate that there was a basis for
    Appellant to believe at the time of his guilty plea that the
    DASA-RB routinely disregards a chain of command’s recom-
    mendation regarding the disposition of a RFGOS request.
    Further, we note that an appellant is not entitled to relief
    based on the “idiosyncracies [sic] of the particular deci-
    sionmaker.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 695
    . Therefore, we con-
    clude that Appellant’s contemporaneous understanding of the
    unlikely prospect that the DASA-RB would approve his
    RFGOS request is relevant for determining the rationality of
    Appellant’s decision to accept the plea bargain.
    In light of all these facts and circumstances at the time
    Appellant entered his guilty pleas, we conclude that there is
    no “reasonable probability” that Appellant would have re-
    jected the plea offer from the Government even if trial defense
    counsel’s performance had not been deficient. Lee, 137 S. Ct.
    at 1965. Accordingly, Appellant has failed under Strickland
    to demonstrate prejudice in this case, and thus he is unable
    to meet his burden of establishing ineffective assistance of
    counsel. 11
    11  In their dissent, our colleagues take the position that this
    case should be remanded for a hearing pursuant to United States v.
    DuBay, 
    17 C.M.A. 147
    , 
    37 C.M.R. 411
     (1967), in order for a military
    judge to make findings about whether Appellant truly would have
    rejected the Government’s plea offer and gone to trial if defense
    counsel had provided him with accurate information about the
    RFGOS. The dissent’s reasoning has merit and we acknowledge
    that this is a close question. However, based on the record in this
    case, and based on the law generally applicable to ineffective assis-
    tance of claims, we conclude that a DuBay hearing is not necessary
    here. We first note that Appellant already has clearly stated on the
    record the legal advice that was provided to him. Specifically, in a
    declaration he wrote:
    Based on my review of [applicable Army regulations]
    as well as consultations with my trial defense coun-
    sel, it was my clear understanding that regardless of
    8
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Opinion of the Court
    what happened with the preferred charges in my
    case, the RFGOS, if approved, would result in me re-
    ceiving an administrative discharge and no criminal
    conviction, even if at time of approval I had been con-
    victed of the charges and sentenced to a dismissal.
    Importantly, Appellant’s trial defense counsel submitted affidavits
    agreeing with Appellant, so there is no dispute on this essential
    point. Next, in terms of the effect this legal advice had on his
    decision-making process, Appellant has definitively stated on the
    record: “If I had known that pleading guilty would have prevented
    me from fully benefiting from an approved RFGOS, I would not
    have pleaded guilty prior to receiving a decision on my RFGOS.”
    Further, as spelled out earlier in this opinion, the record is clear
    about the countervailing factors that would have prompted
    Appellant to proceed with his guilty plea despite the fact that his
    RFGOS was still pending. Because of the clarity of the record on all
    of these points, we find an inadequate basis to conclude that a
    DuBay hearing would further illuminate these issues. In terms of
    the law applicable to such legal claims, in Murray we held that an
    objective standard—rather than a subjective standard—applies
    when deciding the Strickland prejudice prong. 42 M.J. at 178 (“The
    Supreme Court’s references to reasonable probabilities … clearly
    establish that the test is objective.”); see also Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1965
    (explaining “the defendant can show prejudice by demonstrating a
    reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s errors, he would not
    have pleaded guilty and would have insisted on going to trial”
    (citation omitted) (internal quotation marks omitted)); Bradley,
    71 M.J. at 17 (“Appellant also must satisfy a separate, objective
    inquiry—he must show that if he had been advised properly, then
    it would have been rational for him not to plead guilty.”). Indeed,
    the Supreme Court has made it clear that an appellant’s assertion
    of how he would have modified his actions if he had received correct
    legal advice is just one piece of evidence that must be considered in
    the course of a court’s analysis and by itself cannot be deemed
    dispositive of an ineffective assistance of counsel claim. Lee, 137 S.
    Ct. at 1967. The Supreme Court has instead instructed appellate
    courts to look at contemporaneous evidence in the record and then
    make an objective determination of the likelihood of the appellant’s
    assertion. Id. at 1967–69. In some cases, the professed state of mind
    of an appellant at the time he or she entered a guilty plea may not
    be clear from the record. Similarly, in some cases the record may
    not contain sufficient contemporaneous evidence about the factors
    an appellant would have considered in deciding whether or not to
    plead guilty. In those instances, a DuBay hearing may be
    warranted. See Massaro v. United States, 
    538 U.S. 500
    , 504–05
    (2003). Here, however, the record evidence adequately addresses
    9
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Opinion of the Court
    V. Judgment
    We affirm the decision of the United States Army Court of
    Criminal Appeals.
    these points and we do not believe that a DuBay military judge
    would be in a better posture than this Court to resolve the objective
    legal question of whether there is a reasonable probability that
    Appellant would have gone to trial in this case if he had received
    the correct legal advice from his counsel. United States v. Marshall,
    
    946 F.3d 591
    , 596 (D.C. Cir. 2020) (explaining that the court may
    “decline to remand [an ineffective assistance of counsel claim] when
    the record conclusively shows the defendant is not entitled to relief”
    (citation omitted) (internal quotation marks omitted)); see also
    Milios v. United States, 813 F. App’x 646, 648–49 (2d Cir. 2020)
    (holding that an evidentiary hearing was not required for
    ineffective assistance of counsel claim when “the motion and the
    files and records of the case conclusively show that [the defendant]
    was not entitled to relief” (citation omitted) (internal quotation
    marks omitted)). Therefore, unlike our colleagues, we conclude that
    no DuBay hearing is warranted in this case.
    10
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, with whom Judge HARDY joins,
    dissenting.
    Appellant asks this Court to vacate the findings and sen-
    tence in his case because he received ineffective assistance of
    counsel. He alleges in an affidavit that his two trial defense
    counsel gave him incorrect advice before he agreed to plead
    guilty and that he would not have pleaded guilty if his trial
    defense counsel had advised him correctly. He relies on Lee v.
    United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 1958
     (2017), a case in which the Su-
    preme Court upheld an ineffective assistance of counsel claim
    on similar facts.
    The Court, however, rejects Appellant’s ineffective assis-
    tance claim because it disbelieves Appellant’s allegations.
    The Court concludes, for a variety of reasons, that “there is no
    ‘reasonable probability’ that Appellant would have rejected
    the plea offer from the Government even if trial defense coun-
    sel’s performance had not been deficient.” United States v.
    United States v. Furth, __ M.J. __, __ (8) (C.A.A.F. 2021). The
    Court sees no need for an evidentiary hearing to test the truth
    of Appellant’s allegations.
    I do not believe that this Court can dismiss Appellant’s
    ineffective assistance claim simply because the Court
    considers the assertions in Appellant’s affidavit to be
    improbable. Whether the allegations in the affidavit are true
    or not is a factual question that the record in this case does
    not resolve. “This Court may ‘take action only with respect to
    matters of law,’ ” and does not have the power to make factual
    findings. United States v. Piolunek, 
    74 M.J. 107
    , 108 (C.A.A.F.
    2015) (quoting Article 67, Uniform Code of Military Justice
    (UCMJ), 
    10 U.S.C. § 867
     (2012)). Based on the familiar factors
    described in United States v. Ginn, 
    47 M.J. 236
    , 244 (C.A.A.F.
    1997), I would remand the case to the United States Army
    Court of Criminal Appeals (ACCA), and would instruct the
    ACCA to order an evidentiary hearing pursuant to United
    States v. DuBay, 
    17 C.M.A. 147
    , 
    37 C.M.R. 411
     (1967). See
    Toohey v. United States, 
    60 M.J. 100
    , 103 (C.A.A.F. 2004)
    (“[W]here important facts necessary to resolve an issue are
    unavailable, ‘a remand to establish a factual record normally
    [is] required.’ ” (second alteration in original) (quoting United
    States v. Haney, 
    45 M.J. 447
    , 448 (C.A.A.F. 1996))); United
    States v. Wean, 
    37 M.J. 286
    , 287 (C.M.A. 1993) (ordering a
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, dissenting
    DuBay hearing because the “granted issue, concerning
    ineffective assistance of counsel, requires answers to certain
    factual questions which are not clear from the record”).
    Because the Court reaches a different conclusion, I
    respectfully dissent.
    I. Background
    This case concerns the legal advice that Appellant re-
    ceived about the effect of a request that he made for Resigna-
    tion for the Good of the Service (RFGOS). Appellant has filed
    an affidavit in which he makes two key statements. First, Ap-
    pellant asserts:
    Based on my review of [applicable Army regulations]
    as well as consultations with my trial defense
    counsel, it was my clear understanding that
    regardless of what happened with the preferred
    charges in my case, the RFGOS, if approved, would
    result in me receiving an administrative discharge
    and no criminal conviction, even if at time of
    approval I have been convicted of the charges and
    sentenced to a dismissal.
    Second, Appellant asserts: “If I had known that pleading
    guilty would have prevented me from fully benefiting from an
    approved RFGOS, I would not have pleaded guilty prior to
    receiving a decision on my RFGOS.”
    Appellant’s two trial defense counsel have submitted affi-
    davits confirming that they provided the advice that Appel-
    lant alleges, both before and after Appellant submitted his of-
    fer to plead guilty. Captain Floyd, who was Appellant’s
    primary defense counsel, specifically asserts in his affidavit
    that he “advised the Appellant that the RFGOS, if approved,
    would result in the vacation of court-martial proceedings, in-
    cluding setting aside the findings and the adjudged sentence
    (if any).” Captain Floyd also advised Appellant that his “plea
    of guilty would not affect the processing of his RFGOS,” and
    “that if the RFGOS was approved, his plea of guilty, along
    with all other court-martial proceedings, would essentially be
    a nullity; set aside by the order of [the Secretary of the
    Army].” Captain Floyd asserts that he repeated this advice:
    “Before he decided to submit the RFGOS, I advised him of all
    of this, and again when deciding whether he would submit an
    [offer to plead guilty], or plead guilty at all.” In accordance
    2
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, dissenting
    with this legal advice, Captain Floyd “advised [Appellant]
    that it was better to agree to a closer-in-time trial date, than
    to wait it out.” Captain Floyd also reports that “it was only
    after the RFGOS was submitted, that [Appellant] finally de-
    cided against contesting the larceny charge at court-martial.”
    II. Analysis
    In Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984), the Su-
    preme Court established a two-part test for assessing claims
    of ineffective assistance. A court must decide both (1) whether
    counsel’s performance was so deficient that it violated the
    Sixth Amendment right to counsel, and (2) if there was such
    a deficiency, whether the deficiency prejudiced the accused.
    
    Id. at 687
    . In this case, the Court assumes without deciding
    that trial defense counsel was deficient in providing advice to
    Appellant before he pleaded guilty. Furth, __ M.J. at __ (2).
    But the Court concludes that Appellant cannot show preju-
    dice under Strickland because, despite what Appellant
    swears in his affidavit, and despite what his counsel have
    sworn in their affidavits, the Court decides there is no reason-
    able probability that Appellant would have pleaded not guilty
    if his trial defense counsel’s performance had not been defi-
    cient. 
    Id.
     at __ (8).
    For reasons that I explain below, if it is true, as Appellant
    asserts in his affidavit, that trial defense counsel advised Ap-
    pellant that the RFGOS would undo the findings of guilt in
    his case, then trial defense counsel’s performance was defi-
    cient, and Appellant has satisfied the first requirement of
    Strickland. Similarly, for reasons that I also explain below, if
    it is true, as Appellant asserts in his affidavit, that he would
    not have pleaded guilty had he not received incorrect advice,
    then Appellant has shown prejudice, and he has satisfied the
    second requirement of Strickland based on the Supreme
    Court’s recent decision in Lee.
    But this Court does not know whether Appellant’s sworn
    statements are true or false. Instead, what trial defense
    counsel advised Appellant and what Appellant probably
    would have done if he had not received incorrect advice are
    unresolved factual questions. Accordingly, as I further
    explain below, a remand is necessary so that a military judge
    3
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, dissenting
    can resolve these material factual questions at an evidentiary
    hearing.
    A. Deficient Performance
    Appellant contends that his trial defense counsel were de-
    ficient because they incorrectly advised him that pleading
    guilty would not result in a criminal conviction if the Deputy
    Assistant Secretary of the Army for Review Boards (DASA-
    RB) approved his RFGOS.1 He likens his case to Denedo v.
    United States, 
    66 M.J. 114
     (C.A.A.F. 2008), and United States
    v. Rose, 
    71 M.J. 138
     (C.A.A.F. 2012), in which this Court con-
    sidered whether other trial defense counsel were deficient for
    giving incorrect advice about the consequences of guilty pleas.
    The Government has little to say in response. Although the
    Government does not affirmatively concede that trial defense
    counsel were deficient in their performance because of their
    erroneous advice, the Government in its brief repeatedly re-
    fers to the alleged advice as “incorrect.” The Government also
    does not attempt to distinguish Denedo and Rose from this
    case on the issue of deficient performance.
    What trial defense counsel advised Appellant is a question
    of fact; whether that advice was deficient is a question of law.
    Rose, 71 M.J. at 143. In my view, if it is true, as Appellant
    alleges, that trial defense counsel advised him that approval
    of the RFGOS would undo the findings of his court-martial,
    then Appellant received incorrect legal advice. And based on
    our previous decisions in Denedo and Rose, I further conclude
    1  Appellant also argues that his trial defense counsel were defi-
    cient because they should have requested a continuance to allow
    the DASA-RB to act on his RFGOS request before Appellant pro-
    ceeded to trial. The Government argues in response that trial de-
    fense counsel were not ineffective for failing to request a continu-
    ance because a continuance was unlikely to be granted, because the
    DASA-RB was unlikely to approve the RFGOS, and because a con-
    tinuance might have caused the convening authority to withdraw
    the favorable plea agreement. Because I conclude that defense
    counsel were deficient for giving erroneous legal advice, I see no
    need to address the question whether trial defense counsel were
    also deficient for failing to request a continuance.
    4
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, dissenting
    that in providing this incorrect advice, “counsel’s representa-
    tion [would have fallen] below an objective standard of rea-
    sonableness.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 688
    .
    In Denedo, the appellant contended that his counsel had
    failed to advise him about the consequences of his guilty plea
    on his deportation status. 66 M.J. at 128. In remanding the
    case for further findings, this Court stated the following rules:
    An attorney’s failure to advise an accused of poten-
    tial deportation consequences of a guilty plea does
    not constitute deficient performance under Strick-
    land. See, e.g., United States v. Fry, 
    322 F.3d 1198
    ,
    1200 (9th Cir. 2003). An affirmative misrepresenta-
    tion about such consequences, however, can consti-
    tute deficient performance, particularly when the
    client requests the information and identifies the is-
    sue as a significant factor in deciding how to plead.
    Id. at 129. In Rose, the appellant asked for information about
    sex offender registration, but his trial defense counsel did not
    provide it. 71 M.J. at 140. This Court held that this failure
    was deficient because the facts showed that the request was
    reasonable and that sex offender registration was a “key con-
    cern” of the accused in deciding whether to plead guilty. Id.
    (internal quotation marks omitted). In my view, Denedo and
    Rose are indistinguishable from the present case if what Ap-
    pellant and his counsel allege is true.
    B. Prejudice
    The Supreme Court’s decision in Lee governs the issue of
    prejudice in this case. In Lee, the petitioner claimed that his
    defense counsel was ineffective because he incorrectly in-
    formed him that his guilty plea would not affect his deporta-
    tion status. 137 S. Ct. at 1963. The Supreme Court ruled that
    the petitioner had established prejudice under Strickland be-
    cause he had “demonstrated a ‘reasonable probability that,
    but for [his] counsel’s errors, he would not have pleaded guilty
    and would have insisted on going to trial.’ ” Id. at 1969 (alter-
    ation in original) (quoting Hill v. Lockhart, 
    474 U.S. 52
    , 59
    (1985)). In reaching this conclusion, the Supreme Court relied
    on findings of fact by a United States magistrate judge who
    held an evidentiary hearing at which the petitioner and his
    attorney testified. 
    Id.
     at 1963–64. The Supreme Court re-
    jected the Government’s arguments that the petitioner could
    5
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, dissenting
    not show prejudice because he had “no viable defense at trial”
    and would “almost certainly have lost and found himself” in a
    worse position if he had pleaded not guilty. Id. at 1966. The
    Supreme Court sided with the petitioner, who argued that he
    was prejudiced because he lost the opportunity to “gamble[]
    on trial, risking more jail time for whatever small chance
    there might be of an acquittal that would let him remain in
    the United States.” Id.
    What Appellant would have done if he had received cor-
    rect advice is a question of fact to be determined by evidence.
    See id. at 1967 (admonishing judges to consider not just post
    hoc assertions by a defendant about what the defendant
    would have done but also “contemporaneous evidence to sub-
    stantiate [the] defendant’s expressed preferences”). Whether
    Appellant suffered prejudice from receiving incorrect advice
    is a question of law. See Rose, 71 M.J at 143. In this case, as
    described above, Appellant has sworn in an affidavit: “If I had
    known that pleading guilty would have prevented me from
    fully benefiting from an approved RFGOS, I would not have
    pleaded guilty prior to receiving a decision on my RFGOS.”
    (Emphasis added.) This factual allegation, if true, is legally
    sufficient to establish prejudice. Under Lee, an accused can
    establish prejudice by proving that he would not have pleaded
    guilty but for the erroneous legal advice that he received.2
    2  The Government argues that Appellant “does not claim [in his
    affidavit] he would have pleaded not guilty, but for his counsel’s in-
    correct advice,” and therefore asserts that his affidavit is legally in-
    sufficient as an allegation of prejudice. (Emphasis added.) The
    lower court adopted the same interpretation of Appellant’s affida-
    vit. United States v. Furth, No. ARMY 20180191, 
    2020 CCA LEXIS 149
    , at *1 n.1, 
    2020 WL 2154030
    , at *1 n.1 (A. Ct. Crim. App. May
    4, 2020). But the language in Appellant’s affidavit, namely, “I would
    not have pleaded guilty,” is identical to the language used to de-
    scribe the test for prejudice in the precedents of both the Supreme
    Court and this Court. See Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1969 (holding that the
    test for prejudice is whether there is a “ ‘reasonable probability
    that, but for [his] counsel’s errors, he would not have pleaded guilty
    and would have insisted on going to trial’ ” (alteration in original)
    (emphasis added) (citation omitted)); see also Rose, 71 M.J. at 140
    (“Where, as here, a defendant’s reasonable request for information
    regarding sex offender registration was ‘a key concern’ identified to
    defense counsel that ‘went unanswered,’ and if it had been correctly
    6
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, dissenting
    Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1969. If Appellant’s statement is true, then
    Appellant has shown prejudice in the same way that the pe-
    titioner showed prejudice in Lee: Appellant decided to plead
    guilty in reliance on erroneous legal advice. Refusing to plead
    guilty and possibly giving up his favorable plea deal might
    have been risky, and therefore unwise, because there ap-
    peared to be little chance of acquittal. But Appellant, like the
    petitioner in Lee, had a right to “gamble[] on trial, risking
    more jail time for whatever small chance there might be of an
    acquittal” that would prevent him from having a criminal con-
    viction and a punitive discharge. Id. at 1966.
    C. Need for an Evidentiary Hearing
    This appeal is like many others that have concerned the
    issue of ineffective assistance of counsel. “We often receive
    claims that counsel have been ineffective, and they are ex-
    tremely difficult to resolve on direct appeal” because the
    “[c]laims come to us . . . in the form of affidavits.” United
    States v. Polk, 
    32 M.J. 150
    , 152 (C.M.A. 1991). As described
    above, Appellant has asserted in his affidavit (1) that his
    counsel gave him incorrect advice and (2) that he would not
    have pleaded guilty but for this advice, but the record con-
    tains no findings of facts on these points. Although the Gov-
    ernment does not contest the first assertion in its brief, it
    strongly disputes the second. The Government directly as-
    serts that “appellant failed to establish that he would not
    have pleaded guilty but for his counsel’s erroneous advice.”
    Unlike in Lee, where a United States magistrate judge held a
    hearing and made findings of facts, no military judge has
    heard evidence and made findings on the relevant issues in
    this case.
    Whether an evidentiary hearing is necessary for resolving
    an ineffective assistance of counsel claim is a question of law.
    See Hill, 
    474 U.S. at 60
     (deciding that no evidentiary hearing
    answered he would not have pleaded guilty, we hold that he re-
    ceived ineffective assistance of counsel.” (emphasis added)). In Lee,
    the petitioner successfully argued that “he can establish prejudice
    . . . because he never would have accepted a guilty plea had he [been
    given correct legal advice].” Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1966 (emphasis
    added). Consequently, Appellant’s allegation is a legally sufficient
    allegation that he was prejudiced.
    7
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, dissenting
    was required when a defendant failed to allege the kind of
    prejudice necessary to satisfy second half of the Strickland
    test). In Ginn, 47 M.J. at 244, this Court held that “the same
    principles” as those applied in the federal courts “should be
    applied to determine whether a DuBay hearing is warranted
    in a guilty-plea case raising an ineffective-assistance-of-coun-
    sel claim.” According to those principles:
    [t]he general rule for ordering an evidentiary hear-
    ing on a post-trial claim raised in federal civilian
    courts is that a hearing is unnecessary when the
    post-trial claim “(1) is inadequate on its face, or (2)
    although facially adequate is conclusively refuted as
    to the alleged facts by the files and records of the
    case,” i.e., “they state conclusions instead of facts,
    contradict the record, or are ‘inherently incredible.’ ”
    Id. (quoting United States v. McGill, 
    11 F.3d 223
    , 226 (1st Cir.
    1993)). As is relevant here, in applying the Ginn principles, a
    court must ask whether: “(1) the facts alleged would result in
    relief; (2) the alleged facts are conclusory or speculative; (3)
    the parties agree on the facts; [and] (4) the record ‘compel-
    lingly demonstrate[s] the improbability of ’ the allegations.”
    United States v. Akbar, 
    74 M.J. 364
    , 392 n.16 (C.A.A.F. 2015)
    (second alteration in original) (quoting Ginn, 47 M.J. at 248).
    The first of the four Ginn factors favors an evidentiary
    hearing because Appellant’s allegation of prejudice, if true,
    “would result in relief” for the reasons stated above. Id. The
    second factor favors an evidentiary hearing because Appel-
    lant’s factual allegation is not wholly speculative: as ex-
    plained more fully below, it is supported by his own sworn
    statement, his submission of the RFGOS, and the affidavits
    of his two defense counsel. And the third factor favors an evi-
    dentiary hearing because both Appellant and the Govern-
    ment disagree on the material factual question of how Appel-
    lant would have pleaded if he had been given correct legal
    advice.
    Finally, the fourth factor also favors Appellant because
    the record does not “ ‘compellingly demonstrate the improba-
    bility of ’ ” Appellant’s factual allegations. Id. (emphasis
    added) (alteration in original removed) (citation omitted). On
    this point, the Court identifies five reasons for concluding
    that, despite what Appellant has asserted, and despite the
    8
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, dissenting
    corroboration in trial defense counsels’ accounts, there is no
    “reasonable probability” that Appellant would have rejected
    the plea offer from the Government even if trial defense coun-
    sel’s performance had not been deficient. These reasons are:
    (1) the plea agreement had favorable terms; (2) the Govern-
    ment’s case was strong; (3) there were no strong extenuating
    or mitigating circumstances that would lead to a reduced sen-
    tence; (4) Appellant was likely to lose the bargain if he did not
    accept it in a timely manner; and (5) Appellant’s chain of com-
    mand recommended disapproval of the RFGOS request.
    Furth, __ M.J. at __ (6–8).
    These five observations are correct but they are insuffi-
    cient to distinguish this case from the Supreme Court’s deci-
    sion in Lee. In Lee, as in this case, the petitioner’s plea agree-
    ment had favorable terms that included “a lighter sentence
    than he would [receive] if convicted at trial.” 137 S. Ct. at
    1963. In addition, in Lee, as in this case, the Government’s
    case was strong. The United States District Court found that
    “[i]n light of the overwhelming evidence of Lee’s guilt,” he
    “would have almost certainly” been found guilty and received
    “a significantly longer prison sentence, and subsequent de-
    portation,” had he gone to trial. Id. at 1964 (alteration in orig-
    inal) (citation omitted) (internal quotation marks omitted).
    The United States Court of Appeals asserted that Lee had “no
    bona fide defense, not even a weak one.” Id. (citation omitted)
    (internal quotation marks omitted). Yet, despite all this, the
    Supreme Court held that Lee was prejudiced because there
    was other evidence that he would not have pleaded guilty.
    In this case, there is also other evidence. Appellant’s affi-
    davit does not stand alone. The record contains evidence that
    Appellant submitted the RFGOS, which supports his asser-
    tion that he wanted to be administratively discharged. In ad-
    dition, the record contains Captain Floyd’s sworn affidavit,
    which confirms that Appellant received erroneous legal ad-
    vice “[b]efore he decided to submit the RFGOS, . . . and again
    when deciding whether he would submit an OTP, or plead
    guilty at all.” And according to Captain Floyd, the erroneous
    legal advice affected their decision-making because “one of
    the reasons that [Appellant and his counsel] decided the
    court-martial should not be delayed to await the RFGOS” was
    9
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, dissenting
    that, in the trial defense counsel’s erroneous view, “the re-
    sults of the trial would not matter” and delay might then re-
    sult in the loss of “the favorable terms of the OTP.” Finally,
    and perhaps most importantly, Captain Floyd’s sworn affida-
    vit alleges that “it was only after the RFGOS was submitted,
    that [Appellant] finally decided against contesting the lar-
    ceny charge at court-martial.” Based on this additional, inde-
    pendent evidence concerning the Appellant’s decision-making
    process, I cannot conclude, as the Court does, that the record
    “conclusively show[s]” that Appellant did not have the requi-
    site mental state. __ M.J. at __ (8 n.10) (citation omitted) (in-
    ternal quotation marks omitted). In my view, this evidence is
    more than sufficient to require an evidentiary hearing to test
    the truth of Appellant’s statement instead of simply rejecting
    it as highly improbable.
    Three final points require mention. First, I do not assert
    that Appellant’s allegations are true. If the issue were tested
    at an evidentiary hearing, the Court’s suspicion that Appel-
    lant is not telling the truth in his affidavit might prove to be
    correct. On the record currently before the Court, pleading
    guilty certainly sounds like it was the better choice for Appel-
    lant based on the information he had at the time. And the
    Government most likely would want to advance the Court’s
    five points as arguments for disbelieving Appellant’s asser-
    tions about how he would have pleaded. But these are matters
    for a DuBay military judge to consider in finding the facts.
    Second, an evidentiary hearing in this case would not in-
    volve anything extraordinary. Although the DuBay military
    judge would have to determine Appellant’s subjective state of
    mind, military judges routinely make such determinations.
    See, e.g., United States v. Cravens, 
    56 M.J. 370
    , 375 (C.A.A.F.
    2002) (“[T]he question of [a person’s] state of mind. . . . [is] a
    question of fact for the trial judge.”). As at any evidentiary
    hearing, the military judge would hear testimony, both on di-
    rect examination and cross-examination. The military judge
    would assess the demeanor of the witnesses and make the
    kinds of credibility determinations to which this Court ordi-
    narily defers on appeal. See United States v. Wean, 
    45 M.J. 461
    , 463 (C.A.A.F. 1997) (“[W]e necessarily defer to the
    DuBay judge’s determinations of credibility in this regard.”).
    And considering the arguments of counsel on both sides, the
    10
    United States v. Furth, No. 20-0289/AR
    Judge MAGGS, dissenting
    DuBay military judge would decide whether the Appellant
    was or was not telling the truth in his affidavit, just as mili-
    tary judges routinely assess the veracity of sworn statements.
    I therefore do not agree with the Court’s assertion that a
    “DuBay military judge would [not] be in a better posture than
    this Court to resolve” the question of whether Appellant pled
    guilty because of erroneous legal advice. __ M.J. at __ (8 n.10).
    Third, I do not mean to suggest that an appellant who
    raises a claim of ineffective assistance of counsel is always
    entitled to an evidentiary hearing. In some cases, for example,
    an appellant may not aver facts that, if true, would show both
    a deficient performance by counsel and prejudice. See Hill,
    
    474 U.S. at 60
    . In other cases, an assertion by an appellant
    that is not backed up by some other evidence of the kind pre-
    sent here may be insufficient to warrant further inquiry. The
    Supreme Court cautioned in Lee that “[c]ourts should not up-
    set a plea solely because of post hoc assertions from a defend-
    ant about how he would have pleaded but for his attorney’s
    deficiencies.” 137 S. Ct. at 1967 (first emphasis added).
    III. Conclusion
    For the reasons stated above, I would reverse the decision
    of the United States Army Court of Criminal Appeals and re-
    mand the case for a DuBay hearing in accordance with this
    opinion. Once the relevant facts are determined, that court
    would reconsider whether Appellant has established ineffec-
    tive assistance of counsel in accordance with the Supreme
    Court’s decisions in Strickland and Lee.
    11