United States v. Frates ( 2018 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 16-1933
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Appellee,
    v.
    DAVID A. FRATES,
    Defendant, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
    [Hon. Richard G. Stearns, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Torruella, Lipez, and Kayatta,
    Circuit Judges.
    Ian Gold, on brief for appellant.
    Mark T. Quinlivan, Assistant United States Attorney, and
    William D. Weinreb, Acting United States Attorney, on brief for
    appellee.
    July 18, 2018
    LIPEZ, Circuit Judge.         Appellant David Frates pleaded
    guilty to one count of federal armed bank robbery, in violation of
    
    18 U.S.C. § 2113
    (a) & (d). At his sentencing hearing, the district
    court applied the United States Sentencing Guidelines' career
    offender enhancement, increasing Frates's guideline sentencing
    range to 188-235 months' imprisonment.         The court varied downward
    and sentenced Frates to 132 months' imprisonment.
    Frates    appeals   this        sentence,    challenging    his
    classification as a career offender, and alternatively asking us
    to vacate his sentence in light of a recently enacted amendment to
    the Guidelines.      We find no error with the district court's
    application of the Guidelines.            Nonetheless, we exercise our
    discretion under United States v. Godin (Godin II), 
    522 F.3d 133
    (1st Cir. 2008), and United States v. Ahrendt, 
    560 F.3d 69
     (1st
    Cir. 2009), to vacate Frates's sentence and remand to allow the
    district    court    to   consider    the     United    States   Sentencing
    Commission's current policy position on who qualifies as a career
    offender.
    I.
    This case arises at a peculiar moment in the history of
    the Sentencing Guidelines' career offender enhancement.                That
    enhancement increases the sentencing ranges of certain defendants
    whose offense of conviction was "either a crime of violence or a
    controlled substance offense," and who have at least two such prior
    - 2 -
    convictions.       U.S. Sentencing Guidelines Manual § 4B1.1 (2016).
    At the time of Frates's sentencing in July 2016, the Guidelines
    defined the term "crime of violence" as follows:
    The term "crime of violence" means any offense
    under federal or state law, punishable by
    imprisonment for a term exceeding one year,
    that—
    (1) has as an element the use, attempted use,
    or threatened use of physical force against
    the person of another, or
    (2)   is burglary of a dwelling, arson,              or
    extortion, involves use of explosives,               or
    otherwise involves conduct that presents              a
    serious potential risk of physical injury            to
    another.
    Id. § 4B1.2(a) (2015).        Subsection (1) of this definition is known
    as the "force clause," the segment of subsection (2) listing
    specific crimes is known as the "enumerated offenses clause," and
    the segment of subsection (2) beginning with "otherwise involves"
    is known as the "residual clause."              See, e.g., United States v.
    Wurie, 
    867 F.3d 28
    , 31, 36 (1st Cir. 2017); United States v.
    Ramírez, 
    708 F.3d 295
    , 300 (1st Cir. 2013).               The commentary to
    section    4B1.2    further    specified    a    number   of   offenses   that
    sentencing courts "essentially treat[ed] . . . as additional
    enumerated offenses."         United States v. Ball, 
    870 F.3d 1
    , 5 (1st
    Cir. 2017); U.S. Sentencing Guidelines Manual § 4B1.2, cmt. n.1
    (2015)    (listing,    for    example:   murder,    kidnapping,   aggravated
    assault, and robbery).
    - 3 -
    The Guidelines' "crime of violence" definition mirrored
    the Armed Career Criminal Act's ("ACCA") definition of "violent
    felony."    
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (e)(2)(B).              The ACCA imposes a mandatory
    minimum 15-year term of imprisonment on any person convicted of
    being a felon in possession of a firearm who has three prior
    violent felony convictions.                
    Id.
     §§ 922(g), 924(e)(1).                  Its
    definition       of    "violent     felony"     includes     a    force     clause,    an
    enumerated offenses clause, and a residual clause, all materially
    identical to the Guidelines' crime of violence definition.                            Id.
    § 924(e)(2)(B).
    In June 2015, the Supreme Court held that the residual
    clause     of         the     ACCA's     violent         felony     definition        was
    unconstitutional.            Johnson v. United States, 
    135 S. Ct. 2551
    , 2563
    (2015).     It reasoned that "the indeterminacy of the wide-ranging
    inquiry required by the residual clause both denies fair notice to
    defendants and invites arbitrary enforcement by judges."                         
    Id. at 2557
    .     Sentencing judges interpreting the residual clause faced
    "grave uncertainty" about how to estimate the risk of injury
    involved in a crime, and also what level of risk sufficed to
    qualify a crime as a violent felony.                      Id. at 2257-58.           These
    vagaries were more than the strictures of due process could
    tolerate: "Invoking so shapeless a provision to condemn someone to
    prison     for    15        years   to   life     does    not     comport    with     the
    Constitution's guarantee of due process."                   Id. at 2560.
    - 4 -
    Not surprisingly, in the wake of Johnson, there were
    challenges to the constitutionality of the Guidelines' crime of
    violence definition.         Most of the circuit courts to address the
    issue held that section 4B1.2(a)'s identically-worded residual
    clause   was    unconstitutionally         vague.         See   United   States    v.
    Hurlburt,      
    835 F.3d 715
        (7th   Cir.      2016);     United   States    v.
    Calabretta, 
    831 F.3d 128
     (3d Cir. 2016); United States v. Pawlak,
    
    822 F.3d 902
     (6th Cir. 2016); United States v. Madrid, 
    805 F.3d 1204
     (10th Cir. 2015).             But see United States v. Matchett, 
    802 F.3d 1185
     (11th Cir. 2015).           In the First Circuit, the government
    routinely took the position that Johnson's reasoning extended to
    the   crime    of    violence   definition,         and   conceded   that   section
    4B1.2(a)'s residual clause was void.                See, e.g., Ball, 870 F.3d at
    3 (1st Cir. 2017); United States v. Thompson, 
    851 F.3d 129
    , 131
    (1st Cir. 2017).
    This "ongoing litigation and uncertainty resulting from
    the   Johnson       decision"   prompted      the    United     States   Sentencing
    Commission to adopt an amendment eliminating the residual clause
    from the crime of violence definition.                U.S Sentencing Guidelines
    Manual supp. to app. C, Amend. 798.            The amendment also moved some
    of the offenses listed in the commentary to section 4B1.2 into the
    body of section 4B1.2(a)(2).            
    Id.
        Amendment 798 took effect on
    November 1, 2016 -- a few months after Frates's sentencing -- and
    the Commission declined to make the amendment retroactive.                        See
    - 5 -
    Wurie, 867 F.3d at 35 n.7 (noting that the Commission chose to not
    make Amendment 798 retroactive).
    Four months after Amendment 798 took effect, the Supreme
    Court rejected a void-for-vagueness challenge to the crime of
    violence definition's residual clause.              Beckles v. United States,
    
    137 S. Ct. 886
    , 890 (2017).            Distinguishing Johnson, the Court
    explained that the ACCA "fix[ed] the permissible sentences for
    criminal    offenses,"     while    the    Guidelines       "merely    guide   the
    exercise    of   a   court's     discretion   in    choosing    an    appropriate
    sentence within the statutory range."                
    Id. at 892
    .       Since the
    Guidelines are discretionary, they are "not amenable to a vagueness
    challenge," and thus "§ 4B1.2(a)'s residual clause is not void for
    vagueness."      Id. at 894-95.
    The result in Beckles creates a quirk for defendants (1)
    sentenced pursuant to section 4B1.2(a)'s residual clause prior to
    Amendment    798,    and   (2)    whose   appeals    were    pending    when   the
    amendment became effective.          Although stricken by the Sentencing
    Commission, the residual clause remains valid as applied to them.
    Hence, they will be the last group subjected to the disfavored --
    yet constitutional -- residual clause.               This is the context in
    which Frates appeals his sentence.
    II.
    Frates asserts that neither his offense of conviction
    nor his prior convictions qualify as crimes of violence.                   As to
    - 6 -
    his present conviction for federal armed bank robbery, he suggests
    that the crime does not fit within the force clause, and that we
    should remand to give the district court the opportunity to
    determine in the first instance whether the residual clause covers
    the crime.      Regarding his prior convictions, he argues that his
    four Massachusetts unarmed robbery convictions do not count as
    crimes of violence under any of section 4B1.2(a)'s clauses, leaving
    him without the two requisite crimes of violence necessary to
    trigger   the    career   offender    enhancement.   We   address   these
    contentions in turn.
    A. Frates's Offense of Conviction
    It is axiomatic that in determining whether a crime fits
    within the force clause, we look to the elements that comprise the
    offense, rather than the defendant's conduct in committing the
    crime.    See, e.g., United States v. Ramos-González, 
    775 F.3d 483
    ,
    504 (1st Cir. 2015).      This analysis involves taking a "categorical
    approach" and determining whether the elements of the defendant's
    crime of conviction necessarily require the use, attempted use, or
    threatened use of physical force against another person.            See,
    e.g., United States v. Martinez, 
    762 F.3d 127
    , 133 (1st Cir. 2014).1
    1We employ a "modified categorical approach" when the statute
    sets forth alternative elements of a crime, some of which are
    broader than the crime of violence definition. See Descamps v.
    United States, 
    570 U.S. 254
    , 257 (2013); Ramos-González, 775 F.3d
    at 505.   This approach allows us to consult a limited set of
    judicial records to determine which set of elements provided the
    - 7 -
    An offense qualifies as a crime of violence under the force clause
    only if "the least serious conduct encompassed by the elements of
    the offense" involves the requisite physical force.         United States
    v. Ellison, 
    866 F.3d 32
    , 35 (1st Cir. 2017).
    The federal armed bank robbery statute, in relevant
    part,   penalizes   "[w]hoever,    by     force   and   violence,   or   by
    intimidation, takes, or attempts to take, . . . any property or
    money . . . belonging to . . . any bank . . . ," and who, in
    committing such an offense, "assaults any person, or puts in
    jeopardy the life of any person by the use of a dangerous weapon
    or device."   
    18 U.S.C. § 2113
    (a) & (d).          Frates argues that this
    offense can be committed without the use, attempted use, or
    threatened use of physical force.       He believes that "intimidation"
    does not require force, and imagines that a robber could use
    poison, or withhold medication, to accomplish the crime without
    employing force. He further asserts that the force clause requires
    an intent mens rea, and that intimidation can be accomplished
    unintentionally.
    basis for the defendant's conviction. Ramos-Gonzalez, 775 F.3d at
    505; see also Shepard v. United States, 
    544 U.S. 13
    , 26 (2005)
    (listing the charging document, plea agreement, plea transcript,
    and "comparable judicial record[s]" as permissible documents).
    The parties agree that we should employ the categorical approach,
    and we accept their position without deciding the issue.      See
    United States v. Starks, 
    861 F.3d 306
    , 317 (1st Cir. 2017).
    - 8 -
    Shortly after Frates filed his opening brief staking out
    these positions, we rebuffed identical arguments in Ellison, 866
    F.3d at 36-38. The defendant in Ellison argued that his conviction
    for federal unarmed robbery did not qualify as a crime of violence
    under the force clause.     Id. at 34.      We squarely rejected his
    argument, concluding that section 2113(a) "requires proving that
    a threat of bodily harm was made."       Id. at 37.   In doing so, we
    specifically spurned the "threat to poison or to withhold vital
    medicine" hypotheticals also offered here by Frates.         Id.   We
    likewise rebuffed the same mens rea argument raised by Frates,
    finding that section 2113(a) "does have an implicit mens rea
    element of general intent -- or knowledge -- as to the actus reus
    of the offense."   Id. at 39.
    Ellison thus undermines Frates's assertion that federal
    armed bank robbery does not require the use, attempted use, or
    threatened use of force.   Indeed, a conviction for federal unarmed
    bank robbery -- at issue in Ellison -- is a lesser included offense
    to federal armed bank robbery.    See United States v. Spinney, 
    65 F.3d 231
    , 235 n.3 (1st Cir. 1995).      As we are bound by this prior
    panel decision, e.g., Wurie, 867 F.3d at 34, we need not probe the
    matter further: federal armed bank robbery is a crime of violence
    under section 4B1.2(a)'s force clause.
    - 9 -
    B. Frates's Prior Convictions
    The Massachusetts statute criminalizing unarmed robbery
    provides:
    Whoever, not being armed with a dangerous
    weapon, by force and violence, or by assault
    and putting in fear, robs, steals or takes
    from the person of another, or from his
    immediate control, money or other property
    which may be the subject of larceny, shall be
    punished by imprisonment in the state prison
    for life or for any term of years.
    
    Mass. Gen. Laws ch. 265, § 19
    (b).           The government concedes that
    Frates's unarmed robbery convictions do not qualify as crimes of
    violence under the force clause and the enumerated offenses clause.
    Indeed, it acknowledges our holding in Starks that Massachusetts
    unarmed robbery does not qualify under the ACCA's force clause,
    861 F.3d at 319-20, and admits that the enumerated offense of
    "robbery"   does   not   encompass    the   crime,   see   U.S.   Sentencing
    Guidelines Manual § 4B1.2, cmt. n.1 (2015).          Thus, we assess only
    whether the convictions qualify as crimes of violence under the
    prospectively defunct, but retrospectively applicable, residual
    clause.
    Our precedent compels us to conclude that Massachusetts
    unarmed robbery is a crime of violence under the residual clause.
    In United States v. De Jesus, we held that the Massachusetts
    offense of larceny from the person qualified as a crime of violence
    under the residual clause.           
    984 F.2d 21
    , 22 (1st Cir. 1993).
    - 10 -
    Massachusetts classifies larceny from the person as a lesser
    included offense of unarmed robbery. See Commonwealth v. Glowacki,
    
    499 N.E.2d 290
    , 294 (Mass. 1986); Commonwealth v. Sheppard, 
    537 N.E.2d 583
    , 585 (Mass. 1989). Hence, Massachusetts unarmed robbery
    is necessarily a crime of violence under the residual clause.
    Frates    urges    us   to   abandon    this      otherwise
    straightforward analysis and overrule De Jesus.   He argues that De
    Jesus was based on the "ordinary case" method for determining
    whether an offense fits within the residual clause, and that
    Johnson rendered that methodology invalid.   We disagree.
    Under the ordinary case method, we assess whether the
    elements of the crime, in the ordinary case, "(1) present a risk
    of physical injury similar to the risk presented by the clause's
    enumerated offenses and (2) [are] similar 'in kind' to those
    offenses."   United States v. Holloway, 
    630 F.3d 252
    , 260 (1st Cir.
    2011) (quoting United States v. Giggey, 
    551 F.3d 27
    , 41-42 (1st
    Cir. 2008) (en banc)); see also Ramírez, 708 F.3d at 305 (applying
    the ordinary case method).   Although Johnson was critical of this
    approach, see 
    135 S. Ct. at 2557-58
    , we recently rejected the
    contention that the Court's criticism in the ACCA context allows
    us to overrule prior decisions applying the ordinary case method
    to section 4B1.2(a)'s residual clause.    In Wurie, the defendant
    asked us to reconsider our holding in United States v. Glover, 
    558 F.3d 71
    , 80 (1st Cir. 2009), that Massachusetts assault and battery
    - 11 -
    with a dangerous weapon was a crime of violence under the residual
    clause.     867 F.3d at 32.                We explained that Johnson did not
    "necessarily reject[] the 'ordinary case' analysis in all of its
    applications."      Id. at 35.           Rather, the Court's criticism of that
    methodology was "only one part of its conclusion as to why the
    residual clause of the ACCA was unconstitutionally vague."                           Id. at
    34.   Since the Court later declined to extend Johnson's holding to
    the crime of violence residual clause, Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at 890
    ,
    we were "not persuaded that Johnson 'offers a sound reason for
    believing' that the panel in Glover 'would change its collective
    mind' in light of Johnson."              Wurie, 867 F.3d at 35 (quoting United
    States v. Rodríguez, 
    527 F.3d 221
    , 225 (1st Cir. 2008)).
    Wurie      thus    undermines           Frates's    attempt      to    rely   on
    Johnson    to   circumvent          De   Jesus.        Instead,       De   Jesus    remains
    controlling,     and    requires         us    to    conclude     that     Massachusetts
    unarmed robbery is a crime of violence under the residual clause.
    As both Frates's offense of conviction and his prior unarmed
    robbery convictions were crimes of violence under the version of
    the Guidelines applicable at the time of his sentencing, the
    district    court   did       not    err      in    applying    the    career      offender
    enhancement.2
    2The district court also concluded that Frates's prior
    conviction for Massachusetts breaking and entering was a crime of
    violence. Frates did not appeal this decision.
    - 12 -
    III.
    Once we have concluded that a district court did not err
    in sentencing a defendant, it is ordinarily the end of the matter.
    In a narrow category of cases, however, we have discretion to
    vacate a correctly imposed sentence and remand to allow the
    sentencing     court   to   consider   the   United   States   Sentencing
    Commission's revised policy positions, as demonstrated by its
    subsequent amendment of the Guidelines.        For the reasons detailed
    below, this is precisely the type of case in which exercising that
    discretion is warranted.
    A. The Godin/Ahrendt Doctrine
    Our discretion to remand in such situations derives from
    a pair of cases involving Amendment 709 to the Guidelines.          Godin
    II, 522 F.3d at 133; Ahrendt, 560 F.3d at 69.             Amendment 709
    "restat[ed] the rules for determining when multiple crimes are
    counted as one for criminal history purposes."        Godin II, 522 F.3d
    at 135; see also U.S. Sentencing Guidelines supp. to app. C, Amend.
    709 (2007).     Prior to that amendment, the First Circuit treated
    crimes for which the sentence was imposed on the same date as
    separate offenses if they were not part of a common scheme or plan,
    or were not consolidated for trial or sentencing.              See, e.g.,
    United States v. Godin (Godin I), 
    489 F.3d 431
    , 434-35 (1st Cir.
    2007); United States v. Correa, 
    114 F.3d 314
    , 317 (1st Cir. 1997).
    Amendment 709 rendered this approach obsolete by specifying that
    - 13 -
    offenses committed without an intervening arrest are treated as a
    single sentence when the sentences were imposed on the same day.
    See U.S. Sentencing Guidelines supp. to app. C, Amend. 709 (2007);
    U.S. Sentencing Guidelines Manual § 4A1.2(a)(2) (2007).                     The
    amendment went into effect on November 1, 2007, after Godin and
    Ahrendt were sentenced but before their appeals were final.3                See
    Godin II, 522 F.3d at 134-35; Ahrendt, 560 F.3d at 78-79.                 Since
    the Sentencing Commission did not make Amendment 709 retroactive,
    the   amendment   would   not   ultimately   change    either      defendant's
    guideline sentencing range.        See Godin II, 522 F.3d at 134-35
    (noting that Amendment 709 was not retroactive).
    Nonetheless,    we   vacated    and    remanded   both    of   their
    sentences to give the district courts the opportunity to weigh the
    Sentencing Commission's revised policy as a discretionary factor
    in imposing sentence.      Under the Commission's changed thinking,
    Godin and Ahrendt would have been subject to significantly lower
    guideline ranges.     Godin had two prior burglary convictions for
    which she was sentenced on the same date.            Id. at 134.     Counting
    these offenses as a single sentence would have removed her from
    the   career   offender    category    and       decreased   her     guideline
    3More specifically, Godin was sentenced in April 2006, we
    first decided her appeal in June 2007, and we adjudicated her
    petition for rehearing in April 2008. Godin II, 522 F.3d at 133-
    34.   Ahrendt was sentenced in January 2006 and we resolved his
    appeal in March 2009. Ahrendt, 560 F.3d at 73.
    - 14 -
    sentencing range from 262-327 months' imprisonment to 121-130
    months.    Id.    Ahrendt had committed three offenses in the same
    week, and he was sentenced for those crimes on the same date.
    Counting his offenses as a single sentence would have decreased
    his guideline range from 210-262 months' imprisonment to 168-210
    months.    See Ahrendt, 560 F.3d at 73; U.S. Sentencing Guidelines
    Manual § 5A (2005) (Sentencing Table).
    Our decisions to vacate and remand in those cases were
    animated by two principal factors.            The first involved the posture
    of the cases and the manner in which the Sentencing Commission
    chose to amend the Guidelines.               In Godin II, we explained that
    "the posture of this case is peculiar: the amendment is not
    applicable retroactively, but neither has the pending appeal yet
    resulted in a final disposition."               522 F.3d at 135.         The non-
    finality of Godin's sentence interacted with Amendment 709 to
    produce a procedural inequity.               Amendment 709 would not alter
    Godin's    guideline     range     because      the   amendment      substantively
    changed    the   Guidelines      and   applied    only   prospectively.        Id.
    However,    if   the    Sentencing     Commission      had   instead     issued   a
    clarifying amendment -- one that is "purely expository," United
    States v. Cabrera-Polo, 
    376 F.3d 29
    , 32 (1st Cir. 2004) -- we could
    have   chosen    to    "alter   our    own   prior    reading   of    [the]   newly
    clarified guideline" on appeal, and given Godin the benefit of the
    lower guideline range.          Godin II, 522 F.3d at 135.           Thus, without
    - 15 -
    a remand to allow the district court to consider the Commission's
    revised policy, Godin would have been "irremediably worse off
    because   the    Commission       went    further    in     her    direction"      by
    substantively revising the offending provision of the Guidelines
    instead of issuing a "mere clarification."                Id. at 136.
    The second factor that led us to vacate and remand in
    Godin and Ahrendt was the discretionary nature of the federal
    sentencing regime after United States v. Booker, 
    543 U.S. 220
    (2005).   Under federal sentencing procedures post-Booker, district
    courts begin by calculating a defendant's guideline sentencing
    range.    See, e.g., Molina-Martinez v. United States, 
    136 S. Ct. 1338
    , 1345 (2016).         This range is merely advisory.             See Booker,
    543 U.S. at 245.     Courts then exercise their discretion to select
    a sentence -- either inside or outside of the advisory guideline
    range -- that is "sufficient, but not greater than necessary" to
    fulfill certain sentencing objectives. 
    18 U.S.C. § 3553
    (a). Godin
    and   Ahrendt    recognized       that   the   Commission's        current   policy
    positions may be relevant at this second, discretionary, step of
    a   district    court's    sentencing      procedures,      even     when    a   non-
    retroactive amendment prevents the district court from altering
    the advisory guideline range calculated at the first step.                       See
    Godin II, 522 F.3d at 136; Ahrendt, 560 F.3d at 79.
    Three more recent cases provide guidance on when we will
    choose    to    exercise    our    discretion       under    the    Godin/Ahrendt
    - 16 -
    doctrine.    The defendant in United States v. Matos, 
    611 F.3d 31
    (1st Cir. 2010), asked us to vacate his sentence and remand to
    allow the district court to consider Amendment 709. Distinguishing
    Godin II and Ahrendt, we explained that "it was evident" in those
    cases "that if the Guidelines as amended . . . had been in effect
    at the time of the defendant's sentencing," the defendant would
    have been subjected to a lower sentencing range.              
    Id. at 39
    .
    However, it was "far from clear" that Amendment 709 would have had
    any effect on Matos's sentence.        
    Id.
         The district court would
    have had to "engage in fact-finding to determine whether the
    Amendment applie[d]."      
    Id.
       Given the complexity of the district
    court's task on remand, we "conclude[d] that Godin and Ahrendt
    [did] not advocate in favor of remanding for resentencing."           
    Id. at 39-40
    .
    We recently applied this reasoning from Matos in a case
    involving Amendment 798.         In Wurie, we explained that it was
    unclear whether the defendant would have benefitted from the
    intervening amendment.     867 F.3d at 36.      On remand, the district
    court would have had to consider whether "at least two of Wurie's
    prior offenses . . . qualify as crimes of violence under the force
    clause."     Id.    This    analysis   would    have   been   "much   more
    complicated" than the "simple mechanistic change" involved in
    Godin II and Ahrendt.      Id. at 36-37.     We accordingly declined to
    vacate the defendant's sentence and remand for resentencing.
    - 17 -
    Lastly, we ordinarily will not use our discretion under
    the Godin/Ahrendt doctrine when the district court was aware of
    the proposed amendment at the time of the initial sentencing.                See
    United States v. Adams, 
    640 F.3d 41
    , 43 (1st Cir. 2011).                     The
    court's   awareness      of     the    amendment     extinguishes    the   "doubt
    triggering our concern in Godin and Ahrendt that the district court
    would reconsider the sentences in light of the now-revised thinking
    of the Commission."       
    Id.
    Godin II and Ahrendt thus establish a narrow doctrine
    that gives us discretion to vacate a defendant's sentence and
    remand when: (i) the Sentencing Commission adopts a substantive,
    non-retroactive amendment to the Guidelines; (ii) the amendment is
    adopted before the defendant's sentence becomes final on appeal;
    and   (iii)    the   amendment        would   have   lowered   the   defendant's
    guideline range if it had been in effect at the initial sentencing.
    However, we will ordinarily not exercise our discretion under
    Godin/Ahrendt when the district court's analysis on remand would
    be complex, or when the district court was aware of the amendment
    during the initial sentencing.
    If we do remand a case pursuant to the Godin/Ahrendt
    doctrine, the district court is prohibited from recalculating the
    defendant's guideline range in light of the intervening amendment,
    lest it circumvent the Sentencing Commission's non-retroactivity
    determination.       It may, however, consider the Commission's revised
    - 18 -
    policy    position     in    exercising     its    discretion    to    select    an
    appropriate sentence for the defendant.
    B. Vacating Frates's Sentence and Remanding for Resentencing
    The     facts   of   this      case    squarely     implicate      our
    Godin/Ahrendt doctrine, and counsel in favor of exercising our
    discretion to vacate Frates's sentence and remand to the district
    court.    Amendment 798 is a substantive, non-retroactive amendment
    that the Sentencing Commission enacted while Frates's appeal was
    pending.      If the amendment had been in effect at the time of
    Frates's sentencing, his guideline range would have decreased from
    188-235    months'     imprisonment    to    92-115   months.         Indeed,   the
    government     concedes       that    Frates's      prior      convictions      for
    Massachusetts unarmed robbery would not qualify as crimes of
    violence under Amendment 798.4
    Given    the    government's      concession,      the    sentencing
    process on remand will be "mechanistic," not complex.                  Wurie, 867
    F.3d at 37.    The district court will need to consider only whether
    the Sentencing Commission's current policy about who qualifies as
    a career offender affects its discretionary choice of sentence.
    Finally, there is no indication that the district court was aware
    of Amendment 798 at the time of sentencing.
    4 The government specifically conceded that Massachusetts
    unarmed robbery would not qualify as crimes of violence under
    section 4B1.2(a)'s force clause or under its enumerated crime of
    robbery.
    - 19 -
    The government advances three primary reasons why we
    should nonetheless decline to vacate Frates's sentence and remand
    for    resentencing.         All    three    are   unpersuasive.         First,    the
    government argues that a line from the Supreme Court's decision in
    Dillon v. United States, 
    560 U.S. 817
     (2010), undermines the
    Godin/Ahrendt doctrine.            Dillon involved the question of whether
    a provision of the Guidelines that limited a court's discretion in
    sentence modification proceedings remained mandatory -- rather
    than advisory -- after Booker.              
    560 U.S. at 819-822
    .         In holding
    that the provision was mandatory, the Court sought to establish
    that other provisions of the Guidelines likewise remained binding
    post-Booker. 
    Id. at 830
    . It thus observed that "[n]o one disputes
    that the Commission's retroactivity determinations . . . are
    binding."      
    Id.
    The Godin/Ahrendt doctrine is entirely consistent with
    the Supreme Court's observation that the Sentencing Commission's
    retroactivity determinations are binding.                   Both Godin II and
    Ahrendt      acknowledge     that    the    Commission's    pronouncement         that
    Amendment 709 was non-retroactive bound the court.                   Godin II, 522
    F.3d    at   136     ("The   original       guideline    range   .   .   .   remains
    applicable,        because   the    amendment      was   substantive      and     non-
    retroactive."); Ahrendt, 560 F.3d at 79 ("Because Amendment 709 is
    non-retroactive, . . . Ahrendt is not entitled to the benefit of
    [the] amendment . . . .").              Indeed, the Godin/Ahrendt doctrine
    - 20 -
    necessarily      presupposes     that   the    Commission's          retroactivity
    determinations are binding.          It only allows district courts to
    consider   the    Sentencing     Commission's        revised       policies    as    a
    discretionary factor in resentencing defendants.
    Second,    the      government     contends       that    vacating       and
    remanding in this case will effectively open the floodgates for
    defendants challenging their sentences "in light of Johnson." This
    position   is    vastly   overstated.         As    we   detailed      above,       the
    Godin/Ahrendt doctrine applies only to a narrow category of cases
    involving certain non-retroactive amendments that are adopted
    before a defendant's sentence becomes final on appeal. Our holding
    here is thus potentially relevant to defendants sentenced pursuant
    to section 4B1.2(a)'s residual clause only if their sentences were
    not yet final when Amendment 798 went into effect in November 2017.
    We fail to see how -- as the government seems to suggest -- this
    case would apply more broadly to defendants challenging their
    sentences based on Johnson's invalidation of the ACCA's residual
    clause.
    Third, the government contends that the district court's
    decision to vary downward from Frates's guideline sentencing range
    makes remanding his case for resentencing unnecessary.                        Though
    "perhaps not irrelevant," a district court's decision to depart
    from a defendant's guideline range will not ordinarily be a
    significant      factor   in    determining        whether    to    remand    under
    - 21 -
    Godin/Ahrendt.    Ahrendt, 560 F.3d at 80 (reasoning that the amount
    an   amendment   reduces   a    defendant's     guideline    range       is   not
    dispositive in deciding whether to remand).           A downward variance
    does not necessarily alter our "judgment that a different result
    might well be reached on remand," Adams, 
    640 F.3d at 43
    , as the
    Sentencing Commission's revised policy may lead a district court
    to vary further from a defendant's guideline range.                Indeed, the
    guideline range "anchor[s] . . . the district court's discretion,"
    such that even when "the sentencing judge sees a reason to vary
    from the Guidelines . . . the Guidelines are in a real sense
    [still] the basis for the sentence."         Molina-Martinez, 
    136 S. Ct. at 1346
     (emphasis omitted) (quoting Peugh v. United States, 
    569 U.S. 530
    , 542, 549 (2013)).         The knowledge that the Sentencing
    Commission    would   choose   a   different   "anchor"     thus    remains    a
    relevant discretionary factor for district courts to consider even
    where they initially varied downward.
    This case provides a prime example of this principle.
    The district court varied downward based on Frates's history of
    substance abuse and mental health issues, and imposed a sentence
    of 132 months' imprisonment.         Under the Sentencing Commission's
    current   thinking,    that    sentence     would   constitute      an   upward
    variance of 17 months.     The district court may well view this fact
    as reason to vary even more significantly from Frates's guideline
    range.
    - 22 -
    IV.
    For these reasons, we "think it prudent to allow the
    [district]    court   the    opportunity       to   consider   the      Sentencing
    Commission's    updated     views."      Ahrendt,     560   F.3d   at    80.    We
    therefore vacate Frates's sentence and remand for resentencing
    consistent with this opinion.            On remand, the court's initial
    calculation of Frates's guideline range remains in effect.                     The
    court is under no obligation to modify Frates's sentence if, in
    its discretion, it does not feel that modification is warranted.
    So ordered.
    - 23 -