Watkins v. Medeiros ( 2022 )


Menu:
  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    Nos. 20-1108
    20-1194
    KYLE WATKINS,
    Petitioner, Appellant,
    v.
    SEAN MEDEIROS, Superintendent,
    Respondent, Appellee.
    APPEALS FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
    [Hon. Allison D. Burroughs, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Barron, Chief Judge,
    Lynch and Gelpí, Circuit Judges.
    Janet Hetherwick Pumphrey for appellant.
    Susanne Reardon, Assistant Attorney General, with whom Maura
    Healey, Attorney General, was on brief, for appellee.
    June 10, 2022
    LYNCH,   Circuit   Judge.     Petitioner   Kyle   Watkins   was
    convicted in Massachusetts state court on June 2, 2005 after a
    jury trial of first-degree murder for the shooting of Paul Coombs
    on April 26, 2003.       The Supreme Judicial Court ("SJC") affirmed
    his conviction.      Commonwealth v. Watkins, 
    41 N.E.3d 10
    , 28 (Mass.
    2015). His federal habeas petition was denied by the U.S. District
    Court.   Watkins v. Medeiros, No. 16-cv-10891, 
    2020 WL 68245
    , at *1
    (D. Mass. Jan. 7, 2020).       Watkins timely appealed.
    This case is unusual because the state courts made an
    error of fact in their decisions.         We hold that whether we are
    bound by the deferential standard of review under the Antiterrorism
    and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 ("AEDPA"), Pub. L. No.
    104-132, 
    110 Stat. 1214
    , or whether we engage in de novo review,
    the conclusion is the same.         Watkins has not shown prejudice
    arising from the error or with respect to any of the other claims
    he makes.     Nothing in the arguments presented in the habeas
    petition undermines our confidence in the jury's verdict of guilt.
    Accordingly, we affirm the denial of habeas relief.
    I.
    A. Procedural History
    Paul Coombs, who knew Watkins, was shot and killed at
    approximately 9:50 p.m. on April 26, 2003.         Watkins, petitioner
    here, was charged with the murder on September 25, 2003.           A jury
    trial was held in Bristol County Superior Court between May 24 and
    - 2 -
    June 2, 2005.        The Commonwealth presented many witnesses.                 Vern
    Rudolph, a prosecution witness who identified Watkins as the
    shooter, knew both Watkins and Coombs.                After the conviction, the
    state trial court sentenced Watkins to a term of life imprisonment.
    On March 11, 2011, Watkins moved under Mass. R. Crim. P.
    25(b)(2), as amended, 
    420 Mass. 1502
     (1995), for the entry of a
    not guilty verdict or, in the alternative, a new trial under Mass.
    R. Crim. P. 30(b), as appearing in 
    435 Mass. 1501
     (2001).1                Watkins
    argued, among other things, that his trial counsel was ineffective
    for   failing   to    introduce     evidence     that    allegedly     would    have
    impeached    Rudolph's        credibility;      and    that   the    Commonwealth
    violated Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
     (1963), for withholding
    several   other      pieces    of   so-called    impeachment        evidence,    the
    nondisclosure of which allegedly deprived Watkins's counsel of the
    opportunity to cross-examine Rudolph effectively.                      A four-day
    evidentiary hearing on the motion for a new trial was held in
    August 2012, after which the motion was denied.                Watkins appealed
    the denial, together with his conviction, to the SJC, and the SJC
    1   Mass. R. Crim. P. 25(b)(2) provides that "[i]f a verdict
    of guilty is returned [by a jury], the judge may on motion [filed
    within five days of the verdict] set aside the verdict and order
    a new trial, or order the entry of a finding of not guilty" based
    on insufficiency of the evidence. Mass. R. Crim. P. 30(b) states
    that "[t]he trial judge upon motion in writing may grant a new
    trial at any time if it appears that justice may not have been
    done. Upon the motion the trial judge shall make such findings of
    fact as are necessary to resolve the defendant's allegations of
    error of law."
    - 3 -
    affirmed both on November 24, 2015.     Watkins, 41 N.E.3d at 15.
    The SJC rejected the ineffective assistance of counsel claim,
    observing that trial counsel's cross-examination of Rudolph was
    "vigorous" and "effective."   On the Brady issues, the SJC found
    the undisclosed evidence cumulative and/or of little probative
    value, so its nondisclosure caused Watkins no prejudice.
    On May 16, 2016, Watkins filed in the U.S. District Court
    for the District of Massachusetts a petition for a writ of habeas
    corpus.   He argued the SJC's decision, among other things, was
    contrary to and an unreasonable application of Brady and was based
    on an unreasonable determination of the facts.2 The district court
    denied the petition on January 7, 2020, Watkins, 
    2020 WL 68245
    , at
    *1, and granted a certificate of appealability as to only the Brady
    claims on April 2, 2020.   Before this court, Watkins has divided
    the alleged Brady violations into four categories:
    - withheld exculpatory evidence of the only
    identification witness's (Vern Rudolph)
    extensive police contacts, cooperation, and
    lies even after the Court ordered the
    evidence to be produced;
    2    Watkins also brought before the district court claims of
    prosecutorial misconduct, ineffective assistance of counsel, and
    insufficiency of the evidence. Those claims are not now at issue,
    as the district court rejected them and both the district court
    and this court declined to extend the certificate of appealability
    ("COA") to them.   See Miller-El v. Cockrell, 
    537 U.S. 322
    , 327
    (2003) ("[A] prisoner seeking a COA need only demonstrate 'a
    substantial showing of the denial of a constitutional right.'"
    (quoting 
    28 U.S.C. § 2253
    (c)(2))).
    - 4 -
    - the crime scene diagram created by police
    which discredited the testimony of the only
    eyewitness;
    - a trooper's exculpatory notes of the
    witness's pre-interview with the police
    prior to its tape recording; and
    - evidence of the extensive rewards and
    inducements requested by and given to the
    witness in exchange for his testimony.
    Watkins's    first   claim   centers   on   a   withheld    police
    report from October 29, 2003 (the "finger-shot report") which was
    not disclosed to Watkins.          The state courts' rejection of this
    Brady claim rested upon the factual error that the report did not
    show the investigating officers were aware that Rudolph was a
    witness against Watkins.          Watkins, 41 N.E.3d at 22.       We provide
    the   text   of   the    finger-shot   report   later,   but   this     factual
    determination by the motion for a new trial judge (the "motion
    judge") and the SJC was clearly incorrect.
    We hold, as the parties here agree, that the state courts
    made an error of fact.        The parties disagree as to the effect of
    this error on this habeas petition and on the issue of deference
    to the SJC's Brady analysis.
    B. Facts Presented at Trial
    Save the state courts' erroneous conclusion that police
    were unaware at the time Rudolph shot his finger that he was a
    witness against Watkins, "[w]e describe the facts as they were
    found by the SJC, supplemented with other record facts consistent
    - 5 -
    with the SJC's findings."           Healy v. Spencer, 
    453 F.3d 21
    , 22 (1st
    Cir. 2006).     However, because of that error, we provide, as is
    necessary, the following lengthy description of the facts as
    presented at trial.          We describe Rudolph's testimony as to his
    identification        of    Watkins    and     his   cross-examination   after
    describing the testimony of the other witnesses.
    i.     Events Leading Up to the Shooting
    Watkins owned a blue Lincoln Mark VIII and frequented
    the Elks Lodge, a private club on Mill Street in New Bedford,
    Massachusetts.3       Watkins, Coombs, and Rudolph were all at the Elks
    Lodge on April 25, 2003.         Watkins, who was inside the Lodge, was
    heard loudly arguing on the phone with Coombs, who was seen outside
    the club "frisking" people who were attempting to enter.             Rudolph,
    who was also inside the club at the time, suggested to Watkins
    that he should go outside and fight Coombs.              Watkins declined and
    stayed inside the Elks Lodge until Coombs left for the night.
    The        jury   heard     the    testimony   of   Coombs's   then-
    girlfriend, Jessica Bronson, that the next morning, April 26, 2003,
    3    Officer Brian Safioleas of the New Bedford Police
    testified he had seen Watkins driving a blue Lincoln Mark VIII
    prior to the evening of April 26, 2003; Erin Depina testified that
    she had registered a blue Lincoln Mark VIII in her name for Watkins
    and that the car belonged to him; and Paul Tomasik, the landlord
    of Watkins's girlfriend, testified that he had taken a picture the
    morning of April 26, 2003 of a Lincoln Mark VIII parked in the
    girlfriends' driveway.
    - 6 -
    Coombs told Bronson he wanted to "whoop [Watkins's] ass."              That
    afternoon, Watkins returned to the Elks Lodge.      The then-bartender
    testified that Watkins seemed upset and told the bartender he was
    "tired of people F'ing with him."        Watkins went back to the Elks
    Lodge that evening, that time acting "tough" and saying to Rudolph
    that "[t]hings are going to change around here."        John Gilbert, a
    doorman at the Elks Lodge in April 2003, testified that he saw
    Watkins leave the club sometime after 9:30 p.m., and after that,
    Gilbert saw police lights in the area. Gilbert stated that Watkins
    was wearing dark clothing that night.
    Bronson    testified   that    Coombs   had   called   her     at
    approximately 9:45 or 9:47 p.m. on April 26, to tell her he was on
    his way home.   At the end of the call, Bronson heard Coombs shout
    to a third party, "Why don't you fight me now?"           Bronson heard
    nothing from Coombs after that, and learned fifteen to twenty
    minutes later that Coombs had been shot.
    The jury also heard the testimony of New Bedford Police
    Officer Bryan Safioleas, who was on duty from 3:30 to 11:30 p.m.
    on April 26, 2003.     Officer Safioleas had been parked near the
    intersection of Mill and Cedar Streets -- just one block west of
    the Elks Lodge -- until approximately 9:40 p.m. that night.4             He
    4    "Mill Street, on which the victim was standing at the
    time of the shooting, runs perpendicular to Cedar Street, which is
    a one-way street . . . . There is a stop sign on Cedar Street at
    - 7 -
    testified that it was a "very rainy night."      In the ten minutes
    before he left the area, he had observed a blue Lincoln Mark VIII
    drive past him "on a couple of occasions."        Officer Safioleas
    testified that he had seen that vehicle prior to April 26 in the
    Elks Lodge parking lot with Watkins inside it.       The jury would
    later hear further testimony that Watkins drove a blue Lincoln
    Mark VIII.
    The officer testified that he began to head westbound
    down Mill Street at around 9:40 p.m. but he was quickly called
    back to his post at approximately 9:53 p.m. due to a call "for
    units to respond to Kempton and Cedar Street for reported shots
    fired."5   The dispatch instructed Officer Safioleas to look for a
    "dark-colored Lincoln Mark VIII."6
    ii.   The Shooting
    We describe first the testimony of several witnesses
    other than Rudolph who were near the shooting when it happened.
    Beatriz and Ernestina Soares each testified that they were driving
    down Cedar Street towards Mill Street at about 9:48 p.m. on April
    the intersection of the two streets."     Watkins, 
    2020 WL 68245
    , at
    *2.
    5    Kempton Street runs parallel to Mill Street, just one
    block south.
    6    Officer Safioleas's police report noted that the subject
    car was a blue Lincoln Mark VII, not VIII, but the officer
    explained that he merely had made a typographical error.
    - 8 -
    26, 2003.     As they approached the stop sign at the intersection,
    they saw a blue Lincoln Mark VIII parked on right side of Mill
    Street.    Although the Lincoln had the right of way, it flashed its
    lights to tell the Soares sisters they could proceed.          As the
    sisters turned left onto Mill Street, they saw two men arguing
    near a Honda Accord which was parked on the left side of Mill
    Street.    They stated that one man was inside the Honda Accord and
    the other man was across the street on the sidewalk, closer to the
    blue Lincoln.    The sisters both described the man near the Lincoln
    as approximately six feet tall, well-built and around 220 pounds,
    black, bald or having a receding hair line, and wearing dark
    clothing, including a hooded sweatshirt.
    The sisters testified that they also overheard the man
    inside the Honda yelling at the other man:     "Don't fuck [with] me.
    I'm not the one to be fucked with."      Ernestina then saw the man by
    the Lincoln cross the street towards the Honda "and put up his
    arm."     The sisters continued to drive, and when they were about a
    half-block away from the two men, Beatriz testified she heard
    between eight and twelve gunshots and Ernestina heard "[a]t least
    five."     Beatriz called 911 to report the shooting, and she gave a
    description of the Lincoln Mark VIII she observed.
    On cross-examination, defense counsel questioned Beatriz
    about the misty weather (which Beatriz could not recall); Beatriz's
    ambivalence as to whether the shooter was bald or had a receding
    - 9 -
    hairline; the statement of the victim that Beatriz overheard: "I'm
    not the one"; and a prior statement by Beatriz that the blue
    vehicle opposite the Honda may have been a Marquis, rather than a
    Mark       VIII.   The   prosecutor    on   redirect   played   a   portion   of
    Beatriz's 911 call, which confirmed that Beatriz contemporaneously
    identified to the police that the blue car was a Mark VIII.7
    Defense counsel asked Ernestina only whether she heard the man by
    the Honda also yell "You don't know who I am."              Ernestina could
    not recall.
    The jury heard the testimony of Michael Couture, a
    resident of New Bedford who was driving through the intersection
    of Cedar and Mill Streets near the time of the shooting.              He, too,
    had waited at the stop sign on Cedar Street because of the stopped
    blue vehicle on Mill Street that had the right of way.                  Once a
    white automobile started to swerve around the blue vehicle on Mill,
    Couture drove through the intersection.           As Couture did, he heard
    a loud noise and saw a flash out of the corner of his eye.             Couture
    looked up and saw the firing of several shots into a Honda by a
    man who "appeared . . . about six-foot to six-two, slim to medium
    build.       [Couture] would say he looked like a black man . . . .           He
    7  Beatriz had testified eight months after the shooting in
    another proceeding that the car may have been a Marquis; she
    clarified later in that proceeding that the car she observed was
    a Lincoln Mark VIII.
    - 10 -
    had dark clothes on."     Couture proceeded to call 911 and wait for
    police to arrive at the scene.
    Defense   counsel   asked    Couture   several   questions    on
    cross-examination.     He first asked whether April 26 was a misty,
    rainy night, to which Couture responded "[i]t may have been
    overcast.    I don't recollect."        Couture explained that, despite
    the weather and although the incident "happened very rapidly," he
    still was able to see the shooter fire his gun with two hands and
    then "run across the field after the shooting."               When cross-
    examined about his description of the shooter, Couture reiterated
    that the man he saw was around six feet tall, slender (around 175
    pounds), possibly black, and wearing dark clothing.          Couture also
    was questioned by the defense about where the white and blue
    vehicles went after the shooting.        Couture testified that he lost
    sight of both after he crossed Mill Street because his attention
    was focused on the shooting.
    Officer Safioleas was the first officer to arrive at the
    scene.   He testified at trial that, there, he saw a green Honda
    Accord parked on the side of Mill Street, about eighty feet west
    of Cedar Street near where a memorial of the shooting now is
    located, with its brake lights on.        As he approached the vehicle,
    he saw the operator slumped over at the wheel, bleeding and not
    conscious.    The man had no pulse and was not breathing.          He had
    holes in his jacket and five to seven wounds on his chest.               The
    - 11 -
    man was identified as Paul Coombs.              Coombs was declared dead at a
    local hospital.
    iii.    Watkins's Arrest
    Watkins was identified as a suspect early on in the
    police investigation into the shooting.              Yet police were unable to
    locate Watkins for more than three months after the shooting. Many
    of Watkins's friends and acquaintances testified at trial that
    they   likewise     did    not   see   him   after     April   26,     2003.    Law
    enforcement officers testified that the Lincoln Mark VIII was found
    unattended    in    May   2003,   and    had    been   "wiped    clean"    of   all
    fingerprints.
    The trial testimony concerning Watkins's eventual arrest
    is as follows.      On August 5, 2003, Officer Michael Smith and other
    law enforcement officers "observed a male matching the description
    of Kyle Watkins walk out of the area of 19 Lafayette Park" in Lynn,
    Massachusetts.       The    officers     approached     the    male,    identified
    themselves as police officers, and asked him for his name.                      The
    male responded that his name was Leland Brooks and produced a Texas
    driver's license in that name.            The officers then asked the male
    for his date of birth, but the male could not remember the date.
    After further questioning, the man admitted he actually was Kyle
    Watkins.     Watkins was placed under arrest at that time and taken
    to the Lynn Police Station.
    - 12 -
    Officer Leonard Baillargeon met Watkins at the police
    station.    The officer, who knew Watkins, testified that Watkins
    "was unshaven.      He was sweating.        He was wearing a white tee shirt
    . . . that was soiled.         He was wearing a pair of baggy blue jeans
    and white high top sneakers."             Officer Baillargeon testified that
    "[h]e appeared to . . . have lost a lot of weight."                   The officer
    made a comment to Watkins about his weight loss, to which Watkins
    responded he "was down to 180 pounds.              He had lost weight because
    he   was   under    a    lot   of   stress."        When   Officer    Baillargeon
    transported Watkins back to New Bedford, Watkins remarked he was
    "enjoying the ride" because it was going to be "the last ride he
    was going to have for a long time."
    Defense counsel cross-examined Officer Baillargeon on
    only one issue:         Watkins's weight.          The officer testified that
    Watkins previously weighed "[b]etween 200 and 220, maybe 225," the
    same weight estimated by the Soares sisters of the shooter on the
    night of the murder.
    iv.       The Testimony of Vern Rudolph for the Prosecution
    Vern        Rudolph     was      the     Commonwealth's        primary
    identification witness, although he was by no means the only
    prosecution   witness       against   Watkins,      and    the    other   witnesses
    corroborated key parts of Rudolph's testimony.                   Before discussing
    the shooting, the prosecution first questioned Rudolph about his
    arrest on December 3, 2003 for selling cocaine in a school zone
    - 13 -
    and unlawfully possessing a firearm, his guilty plea and three-
    year prison sentence, and the benefit the prosecutor promised
    Rudolph in exchange for his testimony.   Rudolph testified that he
    understood the prosecutor to promise in a letter that Rudolph would
    not have to serve the second half of his three-year sentence
    because he was testifying against Watkins.   The letter, which was
    disclosed to defense counsel prior to trial and admitted by the
    prosecution as an exhibit, stated:
    Mr. Rudolph has been incarcerated since
    his arrest [on December 3, 2003]. On or about
    July 30, 2004 Mr. Rudolph pled guilty to
    offenses in the District Court [including
    count 6, distribution of cocaine within 1000
    feet of a school] and received sentences to
    the house of correction totaling three years
    and one day . . . .
    As of June 2, 2005 Mr. Rudolph will have
    served 18 months of his sentence.
    I understand that you will file a motion
    for a new trial and to dismiss count 6 and a
    motion to re-sentence Mr. Rudolph . . . [and]
    that the remaining un-served portion of this
    sentence be suspended and he be placed on
    probation for three years with appropriate
    court imposed conditions of probation.
    The net effect of these motions, should
    they be allowed, will be to release Mr.
    Rudolph from further incarceration and place
    him under probation supervision for three
    years.
    Rudolph then testified to what he saw on the evening of
    April 26.    Rudolph stated, inter alia, that he was at the Elks
    Lodge at around 8:30 p.m. that evening and he saw Watkins there
    - 14 -
    wearing a black hoodie and black jeans,8 and acting "tough."
    Rudolph told the jury that after Watkins had said to him that
    "[t]hings are going to change," Rudolph responded, "I don't have
    [a] disagreement with you.   You have an agreement or disagreement
    with Paul, take that up with him."      Rudolph testified he did not
    see Watkins at the Elks Lodge after that and did not know when
    Watkins left, but stated he himself left the club sometime around
    9:30 p.m. to pick up his daughter.
    Rudolph testified that he was driving down Mill Street
    in his white Nissan Maxima when he saw the Lincoln Mark VIII parked
    on the side of the road by Cedar Street.      Rudolph stated that he
    slowly began to swerve around the Lincoln towards the intersection
    when he saw Kyle Watkins shooting at a Honda Accord.    Rudolph then
    turned down Cedar Street and sped away.      He admitted that "[i]t
    was a foggy night.     It wasn't too bad.    It was, you know -- it
    wasn't a good night.   That's for sure."
    Rudolph testified that, thereafter, he told his mother
    what he had witnessed,9 and he spoke with police about the shooting
    8    Rudolph later testified he was not "aware of the
    description that [the Soares sisters and Couture] had given of the
    person who fired the shots at the time [he] went to the police
    station."
    9    Just before Rudolph testified, the jury heard the
    testimony of his mother, Patricia Rose.     She testified that at
    around 10:00 p.m. on April 26, Rudolph knocked on her door, walked
    into her house, and stated that "on the way to the mall to pick up
    his daughter, . . . he witnessed someone getting shot" and "he saw
    who did it." Thereafter, Rose drove to the location identified by
    - 15 -
    on April 30, 2003, testified before the grand jury on September 9,
    2003, and testified at a deposition later in September 2003.               His
    trial testimony was consistent with those prior statements and
    testimony.
    v.   Defense   Strategy      and    Cross-Examination       of
    Rudolph
    Watkins's   primary   defense   strategy    at   trial   was   to
    attack the veracity of Rudolph's testimony, impeach Rudolph's
    credibility,     and    ultimately    try    to    discredit     Rudolph's
    identification of Watkins as the shooter.         Indeed, defense counsel
    had highlighted during his closing argument that Rudolph had
    incentives   to lie     -- Rudolph and his brother initially were
    suspected of Coombs's murder and Rudolph was promised in exchange
    for his testimony an "agreement to get out of jail" for an
    unrelated offense.      Defense counsel implied that Rudolph did in
    fact lie.      Defense counsel questioned Rudolph's timeline, the
    visibility that night, and the location Rudolph placed the Honda
    at the time of the shooting, i.e., near the intersection of Cedar
    and Mill Streets rather than on Mill Street eighty-or-so feet west
    of Cedar, which is where the memorial is and where the other
    witnesses and physical evidence placed the Honda.10
    Rudolph as the scene of the shooting and saw "[t]hey were still
    working on the body." Rose was not cross-examined.
    10  Trial counsel also was aware of               and chose not to
    introduce on cross-examination Rudolph's               various pre-trial
    - 16 -
    Defense    counsel   engaged   in   an   extensive   cross-
    examination of Rudolph which covers more than twenty pages of the
    trial transcript.    Defense counsel had the following exchanges
    with Rudolph, among others, in front of the jury:
    Q: The first shot that goes off, is that
    simultaneous with the person you identify as
    Kyle Watkins and they happen to go off?
    A: Just about, yes.
    Q: Could you agree with me, all of what you
    saw in terms of the shooting and the person
    simultaneously firing the shots occurred in a
    matter of two or three seconds?
    A: Fair to say, yes.
    . . . .
    Q: And April 26th, at least until April 30th,
    you hadn't told anybody that the person you
    saw shooting was Kyle Watkins; is that fair to
    say?
    A: Yes.
    . . . .
    Q: And the police -- you actually make a call
    to the police station [on April 30, 2003]?
    A: Yeah.
    Q: And that's because you had heard that they
    may be looking for your brother?
    "recantations" of his identification of Watkins to Watkins's
    family and private investigator, discussed infra. The motion for
    new trial judge found that trial counsel had made a reasonable
    tactical decision "in order to prevent the Commonwealth from
    introducing evidence of . . . threats" to Rudolph, which were made
    by Watkins's family after Rudolph began cooperating. It is settled
    law in this case that these strategic tactical decisions by trial
    counsel did not constitute ineffective assistance of counsel.
    - 17 -
    A: Yes.
    Q: And your brother is what, a suspect in this
    case?
    A: Yes.
    Q: When you get this call, you don't identify
    yourself. This is April 30th, right?
    A: I believe so.
    . . . .
    Q: When you make the call, it's because you
    hear that the police may be looking for your
    brother because he's a suspect in this
    shooting of Paul Coombs[?] . . .
    A: Yes.
    Q: So when you make this call, you don't
    identify yourself. The conversation goes back
    and forth; is that correct?
    A: Yes.
    Q: And at some point in time your name comes
    up as a result of the conversation that you're
    having. It's by police personnel, as a result
    of making that call, right?
    A: Yes.
    . . . .
    Q: And it's at that point in time you then
    identify yourself?
    A: Only after they say my name.
    Q: That's when you identify yourself?
    A: Yes.
    . . . .
    Q: And [you go to the police station for an
    interview and] at some point, the police say
    to you, "Well, if it's not you and it's not
    - 18 -
    your brother, then it must be Kyle Watkins,"
    isn't that right?
    . . . .
    A: Somewhat, yeah.
    Q: And words to the effect that if you don't
    tell us that it's Kyle Watkins, you're going
    to remain -- you and your brother are going to
    remain the main suspects in this case. That
    come up?
    A: Yeah.
    Defense    counsel   also   questioned   Rudolph   about   what
    counsel characterized as inconsistencies in Rudolph's testimony.
    He cross-examined Rudolph about the time he left the Elks Lodge,
    as the shooting took place at around 9:50 p.m., just one block
    from the club. Defense counsel implied that it would take minutes,
    not a third of an hour, for Rudolph to drive from the Elks Lodge
    to where the shooting took place.
    Defense counsel asked Rudolph about where he placed the
    shooting, and how far from it he placed himself.        Rudolph stated
    he was on Mill Street, just east of the intersection of Cedar and
    Mill Streets, and the shooting took place by the Honda which was
    just a few feet west of the intersection.     Rudolph explained that,
    at the time of the shooting, the Honda was not as far down Mill
    Street as where the memorial is now.        Defense counsel observed
    that Rudolph's account "would lessen the distance of [Rudolph's]
    view from where [he was] . . . as opposed to the Honda being up
    near where the memorial is." Officer Safioleas and Michael Couture
    - 19 -
    had testified that the memorial is located where the Honda was on
    April 26.11
    Defense   counsel    then   briefly   cross-examined   Rudolph
    about his "deal" with the Commonwealth, asking, "so now we're at
    the period that you're testifying here and the district attorney
    has made an agreement to let you out of jail; is that right?
    . . .        For your testimony?"     Rudolph responded in the affirmative.
    The court later instructed in its charge that the jury may "take
    into     consideration      the     Commonwealth's    agreement   regarding   a
    sentence currently being served by a witness in assessing his
    credibility. The testimony of such a witness should be scrutinized
    with particular care."
    11Defense counsel highlighted other inconsistencies in
    Rudolph's testimony, including which hand Watkins fired his gun
    with:
    Q: What hand [did Watkins fire with]?
    A: Right hand.
    Q: Last time you talked to somebody, you told
    them it was the left hand, when you spoke to
    the police.   Remember that?    Or you don't
    remember that either?
    . . . .
    Q: You never told anybody that shooter was
    holding the gun with two hands; is that right?
    You never told anybody that?
    A: No.
    Couture had testified that the shooter was using two hands.
    - 20 -
    After considering all of this evidence, the jury found
    Watkins guilty of murder.     Watkins argues the outcome could have
    been different had the Commonwealth produced additional evidence
    to impeach Rudolph, particularly the finger-shot report.
    II.
    A. Standard of Review
    Our review of a district court's denial of a petition
    for habeas corpus is de novo.       Norton v. Spencer, 
    351 F.3d 1
    , 4
    (1st Cir. 2003).    Our review of the SJC's decision is governed by
    AEDPA, and typically is "highly circumscribed" and must be "based
    solely on the state-court record."        Shinn v. Martinez Ramirez, No.
    20-1009, 
    2022 U.S. LEXIS 2557
    , at *18–19 (S. Ct. May 23, 2022).
    "The writ of habeas corpus is an extraordinary remedy
    that guards only against extreme malfunctions in the state criminal
    justice systems." 
    Id.
     at *17–18 (quotation marks omitted) (quoting
    Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 102 (2011)).             Under AEDPA, a
    federal   court   "shall   not"   grant    habeas   relief    for   a   claim
    adjudicated on the merits in state court, unless the final state
    adjudication:
    (1) resulted in a decision that was contrary
    to, or involved an unreasonable application
    of, clearly established Federal law, as
    determined by the Supreme Court of the United
    States; or (2) resulted in a decision that was
    based on an unreasonable determination of the
    facts in light of the evidence presented in
    the State court proceeding.
    - 21 -
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d); see Brown v. Davenport, 
    142 S. Ct. 1510
    , 1520,
    1523 (2022).     When there is no final state adjudication of the
    claim on the merits, our review of the SJC's decision is de novo.
    Healy, 
    453 F.3d at 25
    .
    A prisoner "is never entitled to habeas relief."
    Shinn, 
    2022 U.S. LEXIS 2557
    , at *18.       "[E]ven a petitioner who
    prevails under AEDPA must still today persuade a federal habeas
    court that 'law and justice require' relief."      Brown, 142 S. Ct.
    at 1524 (quoting 
    28 U.S.C. § 2243
    ).     Thus, even when a state court
    "employ[s] faulty reasoning" in its decision, a petitioner cannot
    obtain habeas relief unless he also demonstrates that he "is in
    custody in violation of the Constitution or laws or treaties of
    the United States."   Aspen v. Bissonnette, 
    480 F.3d 571
    , 576 (1st
    Cir. 2007) (second quoting 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    ).        Indeed, "habeas
    relief is available only if the petitioner demonstrates that
    'Supreme Court precedent requires an outcome contrary to that
    reached by the relevant state court.'"       
    Id.
     (quoting O'Brien v.
    Dubois, 
    145 F.3d 16
    , 24-25 (1st Cir. 1998), abrogated on other
    grounds by McCambridge v. Hall, 
    303 F.3d 24
     (1st Cir. 2002) (en
    banc)).   Watkins has not made such a demonstration in this case.
    The relevant federal law here is the rule announced in
    Brady v. Maryland, where the Supreme Court stated:    "[S]uppression
    by the prosecution of evidence favorable to an accused upon request
    violates due process where the evidence is material either to guilt
    - 22 -
    or to punishment, irrespective of the good faith or bad faith of
    the prosecution."      
    373 U.S. at 87
    ; see U.S. Const. amend. XIV.
    This court has stated that a habeas petitioner seeking to establish
    a Brady violation must demonstrate: "(1) the evidence at issue is
    favorable to him because it is exculpatory or impeaching; (2) the
    Government suppressed the evidence; and (3) prejudice ensued from
    the suppression (i.e., the suppressed evidence was material to
    guilt or punishment)."      Conley v. United States, 
    415 F.3d 183
    , 188
    (1st Cir. 2005).      The nondisclosure of impeachment evidence is
    prejudicial only if there is a reasonable probability "that the
    result of the trial would have been different if the suppressed
    documents had been disclosed to the defense."                    
    Id.
       (quoting
    Strickler v. Greene, 
    527 U.S. 263
    , 281 (1999)).                The undisclosed
    evidence must "undermine[] confidence in the verdict." 
    Id.
     (citing
    Kyles v. Whitley, 
    514 U.S. 419
    , 434 (1995)).
    The strength of the impeachment evidence and the effect
    of its nondisclosure must be evaluated in the context of the entire
    record.     Conley, 
    415 F.3d at
    189 (citing United States v. Bagley,
    
    473 U.S. 667
    , 683 (1985); United States v. Agurs, 
    427 U.S. 97
    , 112
    (1976)).      "Suppressed    impeachment      evidence,   if    cumulative   of
    similar impeachment evidence used at trial (or available to the
    petitioner but not used) is superfluous and therefore has little,
    if any, probative value." Id.; see also United States v. González-
    González,     
    258 F.3d 16
    ,   25   (1st    Cir.   2001)     (finding     the
    - 23 -
    nondisclosure of impeachment evidence not prejudicial where the
    evidence      was     cumulative         of      similar      disclosed    impeachment
    evidence).
    The SJC in this case determined that Watkins was not
    prejudiced by the Commonwealth's failure to produce several pieces
    of impeachment evidence.               This determination was based, in part,
    on a factual error.          Following oral argument, we asked the parties
    to address what standard of review applies in this habeas case to
    the SJC's prejudice determination under such circumstances.                           The
    government cited to Teti v. Bender, in which this court observed
    that AEDPA sets forth two different standards "which [both] apply
    to   state    court     fact    determinations"          and    "ha[ve]    caused    some
    confusion."         
    507 F.3d 50
    , 57 (1st Cir. 2007).                  Under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(2),        factual         determinations          are      reviewed     for
    reasonableness,        and     under    §     2254(e)(1),      factual    findings    are
    presumed to be correct.            Teti, 507 F.3d at 57.         In Teti, this court
    explained that "[t]he Supreme Court has suggested that § 2254(e)(1)
    applies      to   'determinations           of    factual      issues,    rather     than
    decisions,' while § 2254(d)(2) 'applies to the granting of habeas
    relief'      itself."        Id.   (emphasis         added)    (citing    Miller-El    v.
    Cockrell, 
    537 U.S. 322
    , 341–42 (2003)).                    This court acknowledged,
    however, that neither it nor the Supreme Court has definitively
    resolved the question as to how these two provisions interact.
    Id. at 58; see also Brumfield v. Cain, 
    576 U.S. 305
    , 323 (2015)
    - 24 -
    (comparing when the Court required federal habeas courts to defer
    to state courts and when it reviewed habeas claims de novo).
    Further, it is not clear whether the presumption of correctness
    disappears only as to the precise factual error or whether it means
    that no portion of the factual determination by the state court is
    entitled to AEDPA deference.   Out of an abundance of caution, we
    take the approach favorable to the petitioner of applying de novo
    review for all four categories of Watkins's Brady claim.   We hold
    that Watkins has not satisfied his burden under Brady of showing
    the requisite prejudice.
    B. Failure to Disclose Finger-Shot Report and Error in
    the State Courts' Factual Determinations
    We begin with Watkins's arguments concerning the failure
    to disclose the October 29, 2003 finger-shot report.   It is clear
    the SJC made an erroneous factual determination when it stated
    that the report does not show the police knew, at the time, that
    Rudolph was a witness against Watkins.     This error, on de novo
    review, cannot carry the day for Watkins.12    The finger-shot was
    cumulative of other impeachment evidence introduced at trial.
    Further, the report -- a copy of which Watkins had at the state
    court motion for new trial hearing -- objectively would have harmed
    Watkins more than it helped him, and, in any event, Watkins put in
    12   We disagree with the dissent's reliance on what it says
    the SJC "did not dispute [or hold]." In addition, the dissent's
    line of reasoning is irrelevant, as we engage in de novo review.
    - 25 -
    no evidence at the post-trial motion hearing that competent counsel
    would, in fact, have used the information in the report, especially
    when viewed in its entirety.13    See Shinn, 
    2022 U.S. LEXIS 2557
    ,
    at *17–19 (restricting federal habeas review to the state-court
    record).
    The finger-shot report states:
    Sir,
    The undersigned, while assigned to Unit
    #13C with Off.[ ]D.[ ]Amaral, was sent to 101
    Page St. (St.[ ]Lukes Hospital) on a male that
    had been shot in the hand.
    Upon arrival we were directed to the
    victim identified as, [sic] VERNON RUDOLPH JR.
    (1/23/67). RUDOLPH had the tip of the index
    finger on his right hand wrapped in a gauze
    bandage.   He removed the bandage and showed
    the undersigned what appeared to be a graze
    from a bullet on the outer tip of his finger
    near the fingernail.
    RUDOLPH stated that he has been receiving
    threats on his life since he became a witness
    in the murder investigation of one PAUL
    COOMBS.    RUDOLPH witnessed the murder by
    firearm and gave statements to the police
    implicating one KYLE WATKINS.      WATKINS was
    later apprehended and incarcerated.
    RUDOLPH originally stated that he parked
    his vehicle outside of the Elks Club at
    Cottage St. and Mill St. and was going to enter
    the club. He claimed he saw a male wearing
    dark clothing approach and he became nervous.
    He tried to retreat to his car when this male
    produced a gun and pointed it at him. A brief
    struggle then ensued and the gun fired once
    striking him in the finger. RUDOLPH stated he
    then ran northerly on Cottage St. and the male
    suspect ran in the other direction.
    13   To the extent the dissent argues that we are holding
    Watkins had to introduce expert testimony, that misreads our
    analysis.
    - 26 -
    After several minutes and more specific
    questioning he eventually admitted that he
    fabricated the story.    He indicated that he
    had shot himself accidentally with a gun that
    belonged to a friend. He stated that he does
    not carry a gun and knows very little about
    them. He said that he did not know that the
    safety was off.     RUDOLPH did not want to
    elaborate on where this took place and did not
    want to implicate his friend as it was not his
    fault.
    RUDOLPH stated that he had hoped to be
    treated and released without the hospital
    having to contact the police. He apologized
    for creating the story and wasting our time,
    but he felt he had no choice. He stated that
    he has in fact been receiving threats from
    WATKINS' friends, but did not want to name
    anyone or document any of the incidents.
    A nurse explained that stitches were not
    required and that the wound would heal on its
    own. RUDOLPH was then given Percocet for pain
    and released from hospital care.
    (emphasis added).
    Watkins argues in his federal habeas case that the use
    of the report would permit a jury to draw the inference that
    Rudolph   had   received   another,   undisclosed    benefit   from   the
    Commonwealth because he was not prosecuted for unlawful possession
    of a firearm or lying to a police officer.          He also argues that
    the report shows a pattern of Rudolph implicating Watkins and
    seeking rewards for his testimony against Watkins, and that Watkins
    was unable to show this pattern at trial.             Neither argument
    satisfies his burden to show prejudice under Brady.
    The failure to produce the report was not prejudicial
    because it was cumulative, even if the inference attempted to be
    - 27 -
    drawn was plausible.    The record does not show such an inference
    is plausible.   Moreover, there was far stronger evidence produced
    and introduced at trial of an actual, considerable benefit Rudolph
    was promised to receive from the Commonwealth in exchange for his
    testimony: a letter showing the prosecutor promised that he would
    ask that Rudolph's term of imprisonment for the more serious
    criminal law violation of drug distribution near a school zone (in
    addition to unlawful possession) to be reduced in half and for
    Rudolph to be released from prison.           Defense counsel in fact
    effectively used, and the jury had a copy of, this letter at trial,
    which defense counsel called "an agreement to get out of jail."
    Furthermore, the purported inference of an undisclosed
    deal on which Watkins's argument rests is not supported by the
    record.   Watkins has provided no evidence that Rudolph and the
    Commonwealth    discussed   any   deal     concerning   the   finger-shot
    incident, nor that his testimony against Watkins had any bearing
    on the Commonwealth's decision not to prosecute him.          That police
    wrote an incident report about a shooting for which they were
    called, without more, is insufficient to permit the inference that
    the Commonwealth would have charged Rudolph absent his testimony
    in this case.   As the report shows, Rudolph already had given his
    statement to police about Coombs's murder before this incident.
    Further, any inference of a deal was refuted, as Rudolph testified
    at the motion for new trial hearing that he had no deal with the
    - 28 -
    Commonwealth regarding the finger-shot incident and the prosecutor
    testified at that hearing that he had no recollection of any such
    deal.
    Watkins    also    argues,      and   the   dissent   adopts   the
    argument, that Watkins was deprived of an opportunity to cross-
    examine Rudolph about a purported tendency to "fabricate[] stories
    involving" Watkins to protect himself.              But there was no such
    deprivation of opportunity.      At trial, defense counsel engaged in
    the following cross-examination of Rudolph:
    Q: And the police -- you actually make a call
    to the police station [on April 30, 2003]?
    A: Yeah.
    Q: And that's because you had heard that they
    may be looking for your brother?
    A: Yes.
    Q: And your brother is what, a suspect in this
    case [for Coombs's murder]?
    A: Yes.
    Defense counsel also cross-examined Rudolph about the fact that
    Rudolph did not go to the police station until after he learned
    that he himself was named a suspect, and that, during that initial
    police interview, he was asked: "Well, if it's not you and it's
    not your brother, then it must be Kyle Watkins[?]"           This and other
    impeachment   evidence      amply,   as    argued     by   defense   counsel
    repeatedly, permitted the jury to draw the inference that Rudolph
    - 29 -
    implicated Watkins in order to exonerate himself and his brother
    and, so, Rudolph was not credible.14
    Watkins's argument to us of prejudice does not take into
    account   the   risks   to   him   of   his   opening   the   door   to   the
    introduction of the finger-shot report.          Further, Watkins failed
    to introduce testimony at the motion for new trial hearing in the
    state court that competent trial counsel, or indeed his own trial
    counsel, would have chosen to use the report.           In fact, as to his
    habeas argument based on a theory of Rudolph recanting, the finger-
    shot report objectively is weaker than other evidence which his
    trial counsel had as a matter of trial strategy chosen not to
    use.15    Defense counsel had evidence that Rudolph had earlier
    "recanted" his identification of Watkins to Watkins's family,
    friends, attorney, and private investigator, although Watkins does
    14   The dissent argues that the nondisclosure of the finger-
    shot report was prejudicial because the report shows Rudolph would
    have been "especially" willing to implicate Watkins to protect
    himself because that implication "would spare [Rudolph] from being
    subjected to a new felony conviction and yet more time in prison
    than he already knew that he might have to serve[.]" In addition
    to being cumulative, this argument ignores the timing of the
    relevant events. At the time of the finger-shot incident, Rudolph
    did not know that he later would be incarcerated. In fact, no
    charges were pending against him at the time; Rudolph was not
    arrested on the drug distribution charge until December 3, 2003,
    and he did not plead guilty to that charge until July 30, 2004.
    15   We take an objective view of what competent counsel would
    do, and this view happens to be the same realistic view as the one
    trial counsel in fact took in weighing whether the benefits of
    using so-called impeachment evidence, cumulative at best,
    outweighed the considerable costs of using it.
    - 30 -
    not   point    to   any   instance     in     which   Rudolph   recanted   his
    identification to the police.        The evidence that Watkins's counsel
    had and chose not to use included Rudolph's statement to the
    private    investigator    that   he    "couldn't      really   identify    the
    shooter," and his comment to Watkins's brother, basically, to
    "[t]ell Kyle he has nothing to worry about.              The [police] . . .
    tripped me up, I didn't see anything, nobody could see anything.
    Tell Kyle he has nothing to worry about."
    Watkins's trial counsel testified at the motion for new
    trial hearing as to why he chose not to use this evidence of
    Rudolph "recanting" his identification of Watkins.              Counsel stated
    that "if the[ recantations] were brought in, then the government
    could bring in evidence of any threats" made against Rudolph, which
    are thought to have been made after Rudolph spoke with the police
    and   before   he   "recanted"    privately      to   those   associated   with
    Watkins.   The motion for new trial judge held that trial counsel's
    tactical decision was reasonable, and the SJC affirmed.              Watkins,
    41 N.E.3d at 26–27. The district court agreed, conclusively ruling
    that "[t]he decision to forego [this] line of questioning in order
    to prevent the Commonwealth from introducing potentially damaging
    evidence was 'clearly a tactical decision that "falls within the
    wide range of reasonable professional assistance[.]"'"               Watkins,
    
    2020 WL 68245
    , at *14 (quoting Cohen v. United States, 
    996 F. Supp. 110
    , 116 (D. Mass. 1998)).        We do not revisit the ruling, as any
    - 31 -
    ineffective assistance of counsel claim is outside the scope of
    the COA.    See Blue v. Medeiros, 
    913 F.3d 1
    , 5 n.9 (1st Cir. 2019)
    (stating the general rule that, in a habeas proceeding, this court
    should not consider the merits of an issue unless a COA has been
    obtained for that issue).
    Rudolph had testified at his pre-trial deposition that
    Watkins's cousin had threatened Rudolph after he spoke to the
    police.    According to Rudolph, Watkins's cousin threatened that if
    Rudolph      testified   against   Watkins,    Rudolph   would   be
    "assassinate[d]."
    The undisclosed finger-shot report similarly shows that
    Rudolph identified Watkins to the police and that he was afraid of
    Watkins and felt threatened by Watkins's friends and family in the
    aftermath.    Objectively, competent defense counsel would not have
    chosen to introduce the finger-shot report to the jury, just as
    defense counsel chose not to introduce the private recantation
    evidence, which the state courts have held was a permissible
    tactical decision.
    Further, Rudolph did not recant his identification of
    Watkins to the police and, if anything, the October 29, 2003
    finger-shot report cannot be prejudicial because it reinforced
    Rudolph's identification.    Rudolph told police during the finger-
    shot incident that he was a witness against Watkins, and the
    version of events Rudolph gave to law enforcement before and after
    - 32 -
    the incident was the same.    On April 30, 2003, Rudolph called the
    police and informed them that he had witnessed Watkins shoot
    Coombs; on September 9, 2003, he testified before the grand jury
    to what he saw; later in September, he testified at a deposition
    to the same; as did he in 2005 at Watkins's trial.             The finger-
    shot incident took place weeks after Rudolph already essentially
    had committed to being a witness against Watkins, and his testimony
    did not change after that.
    For all these reasons, the impeachment evidence in the
    finger-shot   report   presents   no    new   tool   to   attack   Rudolph's
    testimony.    Cf. United States v. Flores-Rivera ("Flores I"), 
    787 F.3d 1
    , 19 (1st Cir. 2015), overruled by statute on other grounds
    as stated in United States v. Smith, 
    954 F.3d 446
    , 448 (1st Cir.
    2020).
    The dissent's reliance on Flores I, 
    787 F.3d 1
    , and
    Flores-Rivera v. United States ("Flores II"), 
    16 F.4th 963
     (1st
    Cir. 2021) is misplaced, as         the facts     and circumstances        are
    dissimilar to the instant appeal.       In those cases, the defendants'
    primary trial strategy was to impeach the three main witnesses
    against   them   "by   suggesting      [the   witnesses]    engaged   in    a
    coordinated effort to fabricate their testimony."            Flores I, 787
    F.3d at 10; Flores II, 16 F.4th at 965 ("Our opinion in Flores I
    describes at length the relevant factual background for this
    collateral appeal.").     The witnesses' testimony had been "both
    - 33 -
    essential to the convictions and uncorroborated by any significant
    independent evidence."            Flores I, 787 F.3d at 18.         All three
    witnesses at trial "flatly and firmly denied discussing anything
    involving the . . . case" prior to testifying.                 Id. at 10.    In
    Flores I, it was discovered after trial that the government had
    failed to disclose, among other things, notes which showed that
    the   witnesses     had,     in     fact,   discussed    their    testimonies
    beforehand.      Id. at 18.       This nondisclosure (when combined with
    other undisclosed evidence) violated Brady because the prosecution
    "pivoted entirely on the credibility of [the witnesses]" and "there
    was no other document or recording tending to prove that the
    witnesses were lying when they denied discussing their testimony
    with one another."     Id. at 19–20.        This case, by contrast, is not
    one of a sole witness to whom there was no impeachment evidence
    introduced at trial.         Rather, there was testimony and evidence
    that corroborated key parts of Rudolph's testimony -- e.g., the
    tension between Watkins and Coombs, the subsequent murder of
    Coombs,    the   shooter's    physical      appearance   and     vehicle,   the
    victim's vehicle, the time of the shooting, and the general
    location of the shooting.16          And, as just described, evidence of
    Rudolph's potential bias was covered extensively at trial.
    16  This corroboration of Rudolph's narrative of Coombs's
    murder is much greater than the single video of alleged drug
    trafficking transaction introduced in Flores II showing the
    - 34 -
    C. Rudolph's Dangerousness Hearing      To    Determine
    Whether He Should Be Released
    In December 2003, Rudolph was arrested for and charged
    with distributing cocaine to a police informant in a school zone
    and unlawfully possessing a firearm.     Rudolph initially was held
    without bail pursuant to Mass. Gen. Laws ch. 276, § 58A, which at
    the time permitted the Commonwealth to move "for an order of
    pretrial detention" based on dangerousness, for any felony "that,
    by its nature, involves a substantial risk that physical force
    against the person of another may result."    Rudolph petitioned for
    bail, and a dangerousness hearing was held before the Bristol
    County Superior Court on December 10, 2003.    Rudolph stated at the
    hearing that his gun possession was for protection, in response to
    threats he was receiving for his cooperation in Coombs's murder
    investigation:   "I'm not a dangerous person.    I'm not.   I'm just
    worried about my well-being.      You can't bring a rock to a gun
    fight. . . . They're making threats against my life." The superior
    court judge denied Rudolph's petition and ordered him detained.
    In response, Rudolph stated: "So, now what happens when the murder
    case comes up?   Am I to come to court bright eyed and bushy tailed
    and testify against somebody else after this?      That's not fair,
    your Honor.   It's not fair."
    defendant "hand something to someone and receive something in
    return." 16 F.4th at 968–69.
    - 35 -
    Watkins argues the Commonwealth was required under Brady
    to   produce      the    statement   Rudolph   made    at     the   end   of    his
    dangerousness hearing, but this argument also falls short.                     On de
    novo review, we conclude this statement does not support the
    inference Watkins wants to draw from it, i.e., that "Watkins was
    denied the opportunity to cross-examine Rudolph on bias." Further,
    there was at trial extensive examination of bias, and the failure
    to   add   onto    any    such   evidence   hardly    would    be   prejudicial.
    Rudolph's motivation for reaching out to the police and the
    agreement that Rudolph later reached with the Commonwealth were
    discussed at trial and clearly informed Watkins and the jury that
    Rudolph sought an incentive in return for his cooperation and
    testimony.     Rudolph's statements at his dangerousness hearing, as
    with his "recantations" and the finger-shot report, also show that
    Rudolph was threatened for testifying by Watkins's family and
    friends, and therefore would present substantial risks to Watkins
    if introduced at trial.
    D. The Crime Scene Diagram
    Watkins's contention that the Commonwealth's failure to
    produce a hand-drawn crime scene diagram detailing the distance
    between the Honda Accord and shell casings found near the vehicle
    violated Brady similarly is unpersuasive.             The diagram depicts the
    Honda Accord part-way down the block from the intersection of Mill
    and Cedar Streets, which differs from Rudolph's testimony that the
    - 36 -
    shooting    occurred   near    the    intersection.      The    Commonwealth's
    failure to produce this diagram was not prejudicial, as                       its
    impeachment of Rudolph's testimony, at most, would have been
    cumulative of the other evidence introduced at trial.                    Watkins
    highlighted all the purported discrepancies in Rudolph's testimony
    to   the   jury,   including    his   placement    of   the    Honda   near   the
    intersection, and the jury found Watkins guilty nonetheless.
    Officer    Safioleas      testified,   contrary      to    Rudolph's
    testimony, that the Honda was located near the memorial, which has
    been placed approximately eighty feet west of the Cedar and Mill
    Streets' intersection.        This location corresponds generally to the
    location of the Honda as shown in the diagram.                    Mr. Couture
    similarly placed the Honda near the memorial.                    So, too, did
    photographs taken of the scene the night of the shooting, which
    were admitted as exhibits.           Defense counsel argued this point to
    the jury in closing.      The crime scene diagram, which is a rough,
    hand-written sketch that is not drawn to scale, would have a
    nominal effect on impeaching Rudolph, if any at all.
    E. Undisclosed Pre-Interview Notes
    Watkins's challenge under Brady to the Commonwealth's
    failure to disclose the handwritten notes taken by Trooper Kilnapp
    fails.     After calling the police on April 30, 2003 to report the
    shooting, Rudolph drove himself and his brother to the station for
    an in-person interview.         At the station, Rudolph spoke with law
    - 37 -
    enforcement for approximately two hours before the police began
    recording his interview (the "pre-interview").     Trooper Kilnapp
    apparently took handwritten notes of the pre-interview which were
    not disclosed before trial because "they were not discovered until
    after the trial."
    Watkins argues these notes, if introduced at trial,
    would have permitted the inference that the perpetrator was not
    Watkins, but a third party: Barry Souto.17     The strands of the
    argument are simply not supported by the record.     Watkins first
    contends that the notes show Rudolph did not implicate Watkins as
    the shooter until the recorded interview, when police threatened
    17   Watkins further argues the nondisclosure of these notes
    deprived him of the ability to cross-examine Rudolph on the
    discrepancies in his timeline, namely, when he left the Elks Lodge,
    because the notes indicate he left "at least after 9:15, could
    have been later. Maybe 9:30."      This argument is belied by the
    record, which clearly shows defense counsel did cross-examine
    Rudolph about such discrepancies:
    Q: Now, can you tell us whether it was closer
    to 8:00 or 8:30 that you went into the [Lodge]?
    A: I would say about 8:30, 8:35 -- 8:30, yeah.
    Q: If you were in there for twenty minutes,
    then you're out of there about five past nine?
    A: Times, like I said, it's two years gone by.
    . . . .
    Q: And once you made -- if you came out of
    there at 9:30, is it fair to say that would be
    less than a minute for you to get to the point
    where the blue or black car was on Mill Street?
    - 38 -
    to charge him instead.             The record says otherwise.              The record
    shows that Rudolph named Watkins as the shooter when he first
    called the police, before heading to the station for an interview.
    The    notes     of    this    phone    call,    taken      by   Officer    Oliveira,
    specifically state that Rudolph told police: "he observed KYLE
    WATKINS shooting a firearm into the Honda Accord parked on Mill
    Street just west of Cedar Street."
    Trooper Kilnapp's notes also do not implicate Barry
    Souto as a third-party suspect.                 The notes first state: "Friday
    4/25 @ Elks . . . Kyle Watkins in bathroom arguing w/ Paul Coombs
    on cell phone."         They then state:            "Barry [Souto] told Vern it
    was behind him re: Zach (few weeks ago) . . . Barry talked to Paul
    -- to clear it up.            Barry told Vern he didn't hire hitman.            Barry
    scared of Paul Coombs."            Barry is the brother of Zachary Souto;
    Zachary was killed by Coombs several years prior, and Coombs was
    killed on Zachary's birthday. These notes do not support Watkins's
    theory   that     Barry       killed   Coombs    out   of   revenge.        Quite    the
    opposite.      The only plausible inference that can be drawn from the
    notes is that Barry had no intention of killing Coombs.                       Watkins
    has pointed to no evidence otherwise connecting Barry to the crime.
    He    suffered    no    prejudice      from   the    Commonwealth's        failure    to
    disclose.
    - 39 -
    F. Rudolph's Promise From the Commonwealth
    Watkins's argument concerning the alleged incompleteness
    of the Commonwealth's disclosures of its promise to Rudolph lacks
    merit.18        The   record   refutes   Watkins's   argument   that   the
    Commonwealth concealed the true nature of this promise.                The
    prosecutor sent a copy of the letter setting forth the promise to
    Watkins prior to the start of trial and entered the letter into
    evidence.        The letter clearly provided that Rudolph would be
    released from prison if he testified against Watkins, which he
    did.        Contrary to Watkins's argument, the letter states, inter
    alia, that Rudolph's attorney intended to move to dismiss the
    distribution in a school zone charge and for resentencing and
    Rudolph's immediate release, and the prosecutor in Watkins's case
    intended to ask Rudolph's sentencing judge to allow the motions if
    Rudolph testified truthfully against Watkins.          In light of this
    disclosed promise, the trial judge specifically instructed the
    jury to "scrutinize[] [Rudolph's testimony] with particular care."
    18 Watkins's additional argument that the Commonwealth
    failed to produce other requested evidence of Rudolph's
    cooperation is unsupported by the record.     The trial court had
    ordered the government to file ex parte information concerning
    Rudolph's cooperation, and on March 31, 2005, the Commonwealth
    submitted a letter from Detective Lieutenant Scott Sylvia of the
    New Bedford Police Department listing the docket numbers of the
    cases in which Rudolph was involved. The letter also stated that
    Rudolph was a victim or witness in several prior cases, but he did
    not act as an informant. Watkins has pointed to no evidence to
    the contrary.
    - 40 -
    That the letter did not state that Rudolph would be released the
    same day of his testimony is immaterial.
    III.
    Even had Watkins overcome the obstacles to habeas relief
    (he has not), he still has not persuaded us that "law and justice"
    require the petition to be granted.   Shinn, 
    2022 U.S. LEXIS 2557
    ,
    at *18 (quoting Brown, 142 S. Ct. at 1524).   The judgment of the
    district court denying habeas relief is affirmed.
    - DISSENTING OPINION FOLLOWS -
    - 41 -
    BARRON, Chief Judge, dissenting.          Kyle Watkins seeks to
    overturn his Massachusetts-law conviction for first-degree murder
    pursuant to his federal constitutional right to due process under
    Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
     (1963).             He contends that he was
    convicted in violation of this right because the prosecution failed
    to provide his counsel with exculpatory evidence in advance of the
    trial that would have been material to his defense.                 Among that
    evidence is a police report that Watkins contends would have
    significantly aided his efforts to impeach what turned out to be
    the state's key witness against him.                It is this aspect of
    Watkins's Brady challenge that is my focus.
    The majority does not dispute that the police report
    constitutes   exculpatory      evidence.     It    nonetheless      holds   that
    Watkins's federal habeas petition must be denied because Watkins
    has not shown the prejudice under Brady that is required to
    establish that the police report was "material."               See Brady, 
    373 U.S. at 87
     ("[T]he suppression by the prosecution of evidence
    favorable to an accused upon request violates due process where
    the   evidence   is   material    either    to   guilt    or   to   punishment,
    irrespective of the good faith or bad faith of the prosecution.");
    Zuluaga v. Spencer, 
    585 F.3d 27
    , 30 (1st Cir. 2009) ("To prevail
    on a federal Brady claim, 'a habeas petitioner must demonstrate:
    . . . [that] prejudice ensued from the suppression (i.e., the
    suppressed    evidence   was     material   to    guilt   or   punishment).'"
    - 42 -
    (quoting Conley v. United States, 
    415 F.3d 183
    , 188 (1st Cir.
    2005))).
    The Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts ("SJC")
    reached the same result in rejecting Watkins's Brady challenge on
    direct review. Commonwealth v. Watkins, 
    41 N.E.3d 10
    , 20-23 (Mass.
    2015).     But, although a federal court reviewing a habeas petition
    ordinarily must defer to such a state court ruling, see, e.g.,
    Teti v. Bender, 
    507 F.3d 50
    , 55 (1st Cir. 2007), we need not do so
    here, because, as I will explain, the SJC's ruling rests on a clear
    mistake of fact.    See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(2).   Moreover, as I will
    also explain, a de novo review of the record leads me to conclude
    that Watkins has shown the prejudice from having been denied access
    to the police report that Brady requires him to show. Accordingly,
    I conclude that Watkins is entitled to federal habeas relief on
    the ground that he was convicted of murder in violation of his
    federal constitutional right to due process under Brady. See Brown
    v. Davenport, 
    142 S. Ct. 1510
    , 1517 (2022) ("When a state court
    has ruled on the merits of a state prisoner's claim, a federal
    court cannot grant relief without first applying both the test
    this Court outlined in Brecht [v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
     (1993)]
    and the one Congress prescribed in [the Antiterrorism and Effective
    Death Penalty Act of 1996 (AEDPA)]."); Kyles v. Whitley, 
    514 U.S. 419
    , 436 (1995) (explaining that a showing of prejudice that
    - 43 -
    satisfies    Brady   "cannot   subsequently      be   found   harmless
    under Brecht").
    I.
    The key question at trial concerned who pulled the
    trigger in the murder of Paul Coombs in New Bedford, Massachusetts
    on the night of April 26, 2003.        Watkins, 41 N.E.3d at 15.    Some
    of the witnesses for the state who testified at the trial had
    driven past the site of the shooting either as it happened or
    immediately beforehand. Id. at 16. But, only one of them -- Vernon
    Rudolph -- claimed both to have been able to see the person
    shooting Coombs on the night in question and to have been able to
    identify that person as Watkins.       See id. at 16-17.
    In other words, Rudolph was no ordinary witness for the
    prosecution.   He was the crucial one.     He was also an acquaintance
    of Watkins, which meant that Rudolph knew what Watkins looked like.
    Id.   That fact no doubt lent credibility to Rudolph's testimony
    that he saw Watkins pull the trigger.
    At the same time, Rudolph was vulnerable to impeachment.
    The jury was informed both that he was incarcerated for unrelated
    felonies at the time that he was testifying against Watkins and
    that he had agreed to testify against Watkins in return for a
    prosecutor's promise to ask the judge who had sentenced him to a
    three-year-and-one-day term of imprisonment for his convictions to
    grant his motions for release from prison 18 months early.         Id. at
    - 44 -
    21.   The record also shows that Watkins knew at the time of trial
    both that Rudolph had gone to the police station for an interview
    about the murder of Coombs only after having learned that Rudolph
    and Rudolph's brother were themselves suspects in that murder and
    that Rudolph had recanted to Watkins's private investigator prior
    to the trial the account that Rudolph then gave against Watkins at
    the trial.
    But,    as    strong    as    Watkins's       grounds   for   impeaching
    Rudolph's trial testimony were, Watkins contends that they would
    have been even stronger if he had known at the time of trial some
    other things about Rudolph that he did not know but that the
    prosecution did.       Most especially, Watkins did not know -- as the
    prosecution   did   --    about   a     police    report      that   described   an
    encounter that Rudolph had with the police prior to Watkins's
    trial.
    The    police    report      shows     that    on   October   29,   2003,
    officers from the New Bedford Police Department were dispatched to
    a hospital to investigate a man who had been hospitalized for a
    bullet wound.    The officers were directed to the victim, whom they
    identified as Rudolph and whose finger had been grazed by a bullet.
    According to the report, "RUDOLPH stated that he has
    been receiving threats on his life since he became a witness in
    the murder investigation of one PAUL COOMBS.                   RUDOLPH witnessed
    the murder by firearm and gave statements to the police implicating
    - 45 -
    one   KYLE   WATKINS."    The   report    next   explains   that   "RUDOLPH
    originally stated that," while he was outside of the Elks Club,
    he saw a male wearing dark clothing approach
    and he became nervous. He tried to retreat to
    his car when this male produced a gun and
    pointed it at him.    A brief struggle ensued
    and the gun fired once striking him in the
    finger.      RUDOLPH   stated  he   then  ran
    northerly . . . and the male suspect ran in
    the other direction.
    But, according to the report, the story Rudolph told the officers
    quickly changed:
    After several minutes and more specific
    questioning he eventually admitted that he
    fabricated the story.    He indicated that he
    had shot himself accidentally with a gun that
    belonged to a friend. He stated that he does
    not carry a gun and knows very little about
    them. He said that he did not know that the
    safety was off.     RUDOLPH did not want to
    elaborate on where this took place and did not
    want to implicate his friend as it was not his
    fault.
    RUDOLPH stated that he had hoped to be treated
    and released without the hospital having to
    contact the police.       He apologized for
    creating the story and wasting our time, but
    he felt he had no choice. He stated that he
    has in fact been receiving threats from
    WATKINS' friends, but did not want to name
    anyone or document any of the incidents.
    II.
    Watkins relied in part on the prosecution's failure to
    turn over the police report to him prior to trial in pressing his
    Brady challenge to his murder conviction to the SJC.         But, the SJC
    determined that the police report did not itself show that "Rudolph
    - 46 -
    avoided any charges because he told police that he was the key
    witness in the Commonwealth's case against [Watkins]," and, on
    that basis, it ruled that Watkins's Brady challenge was without
    merit insofar as that challenge was premised on the withholding of
    the police report because Watkins had failed to show that the
    withholding of that report prejudiced him.      Watkins, 41 N.E.3d at
    22.
    As I have noted, in reviewing a federal habeas petition
    that seeks to overturn a state law conviction, we ordinarily must
    give substantial deference to the state court ruling that affirms
    the conviction.   But, that is not so when the state court ruling
    is "based on an unreasonable determination of the facts in light
    of the evidence presented in the State court proceeding."              
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(2) (emphasis added); see Harris v. Sharp, 
    941 F.3d 962
    , 978 & n.12, 987 (10th Cir. 2019) (determining that a
    state court's decision on the prejudice prong of an ineffective
    assistance of counsel argument "was based on an unreasonable
    factual determination," reviewing the claim de novo, and remanding
    for an evidentiary hearing on disputed facts).           And, here, the
    SJC's ruling is "based on" a factual error of that kind.
    Indeed, the state does not dispute that the SJC made an
    "unreasonable   determination   of   the   facts"   in   addressing   the
    portion of Watkins's Brady claim that concerns the withholding of
    the police report.   The SJC stated in that regard that the judge
    - 47 -
    at Watkins's motion-for-a-new-trial hearing found that "there was
    no evidence that investigating officers" to whom Rudolph confessed
    to having shot himself in the finger "were aware that Rudolph was
    a Commonwealth witness," and the SJC concluded that "[t]he record
    supports the judge's findings."        Watkins, 41 N.E.3d at 22.           But,
    the third paragraph of the police report's one-page narrative
    recounts   that,    after   the   police     encountered   Rudolph    at   the
    hospital, "RUDOLPH stated that he has been receiving threats on
    his life since he became a witness in the murder investigation of
    one PAUL COOMBS.    RUDOLPH witnessed the murder by firearm and gave
    statements to the police implicating one KYLE WATKINS." (emphasis
    added).    Thus, the state -- admirably -- concedes that the record
    "directly contradict[s]" the SJC's statement about what the record
    shows   regarding   whether   the    police    officers    who   investigated
    Rudolph's injury "were aware that [he] was a Commonwealth witness,"
    Watkins, 41 N.E.3d at 22.
    To be sure, things are not quite so straightforward when
    it comes to the question of whether the SJC's ruling rejecting
    Watkins's Brady challenge is "based on" this unreasonable factual
    determination about what the police report shows.                 As to that
    question, the state asserts that the SJC's ruling is not so "based"
    because "the incorrect fact was just one of three reasons on which
    the SJC relied" in finding that no prejudice flowed from the
    prosecution's failure to disclose the police report.
    - 48 -
    The SJC's opinion, however, refutes any such notion.
    The opinion states in relevant part:
    The   judge  [presiding   over   the   hearing
    concerning Watkins's motion for a new trial]
    found, however, that there was no evidence
    that investigating officers were aware that
    Rudolph was a Commonwealth witness, no
    evidence that he either sought or received
    favorable treatment in that matter, and that
    his anticipated testimony had no bearing on
    the decision not to prosecute Rudolph for
    "shooting himself." The record supports the
    judge's findings.    The defendant therefore
    suffered no prejudice as a result of the
    Commonwealth's failure to disclose this police
    report.
    Id.
    In using the words "therefore suffered no prejudice"
    only after having listed three distinct features of the police
    report, id. (emphasis added), the SJC in no way suggested that its
    no-prejudice ruling depended on the police report having fewer
    than all three of those features.   So, taking the SJC at its word,
    I conclude that the SJC necessarily rested its no-prejudice ruling
    on a feature of the police report that, as we have seen, the SJC
    unreasonably determined existed even though it does not.
    The majority does not, in the end, disagree with me on
    this point.   It rests its judgment that the portion of Watkins's
    Brady claim that concerns the withholding of the police report
    provides no basis for granting his habeas petition solely on the
    way that it resolves the next question that I will take up, which
    concerns whether the record, on de novo review, supports Watkins's
    - 49 -
    contention that he met his burden to show that the withholding of
    the police report caused him the prejudice that Brady requires him
    to show.19
    III.
    To make the required showing of prejudice under Brady,
    Watkins must demonstrate that "a reasonable probability exists
    'that the result of the trial would have been different if the
    suppressed [evidence] had been disclosed to the defense.'" Conley,
    
    415 F.3d at 188
     (quoting Strickler v. Greene, 
    527 U.S. 263
    , 289
    (1999)).     That does not mean that Watkins must prove that the trial
    certainly would have come out in his favor if he had been given
    access to the exculpatory evidence that was withheld from him.     It
    means that he must show only that "the Government's evidentiary
    suppression undermines confidence in the verdict."        
    Id.
     (citing
    Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at 434
    ).       The majority concludes, however, that
    Watkins has failed to make even that showing.
    19I note, additionally, that undertaking de novo review under
    these circumstances is not inconsistent with this Court's past
    application of § 2254(d)(1) deference to a mixed question of law
    and fact. See Teti, 
    507 F.3d at 57
    ; cf. also Conley, 
    415 F.3d at
    188 n.3. While Teti's analysis focused on whether the state court
    had "unreasonabl[y] appl[ied] . . . clearly established [f]ederal
    law," 
    507 F.3d at 57
     (citation omitted), the petitioner in that
    case had not refuted the state court's factual findings and so the
    question on appeal was whether the legal conclusion that flowed
    from those facts was unreasonable, 
    id.
     at 60–63. By contrast, in
    Watkins's case, the SJC has not in fact made a determination
    concerning prejudice that is not based on the clear factual error
    that it made about the police report.
    - 50 -
    The majority rests that conclusion in part on the fact
    that the record shows that Watkins knew before trial that Rudolph
    had received a benefit in exchange for his testimony through
    Rudolph's deal with the Commonwealth, in which the Commonwealth
    had promised to advocate for Rudolph's early release from the
    prison sentence that he was then serving for having been convicted
    of dealing drugs in a school zone and unlawfully possessing a
    firearm.     Relatedly, the majority points out that the record shows
    that Watkins also had other evidence available to him before trial
    from which a juror could draw the possible "inference that Rudolph
    implicated Watkins" in Coombs's murder "in order to exonerate
    himself and his brother" from suspicion for that same crime.           Maj.
    Op. at 29–30.
    In my view, however, the majority fails in highlighting
    those features of the record to grapple adequately with two ways
    in   which   the   police   report    would   have   materially   augmented
    Watkins's effort to impeach Rudolph, the crucial witness against
    him, notwithstanding the impeachment evidence that Watkins already
    had in hand by the time of the trial.         See United States v. Flores-
    Rivera (Flores I), 
    787 F.3d 1
    , 19 (1st Cir. 2015) ("[T]he fact
    that the defense had some tools to attack [a star witness's]
    testimony hardly dismisses the potential of different tools as
    merely cumulative."), superseded by statute on other grounds as
    stated in United States v. Smith, 
    954 F.3d 446
    , 448 (1st Cir.
    - 51 -
    2020).   I thus cannot subscribe to the majority's conclusion that,
    because of the aspects of the record that the majority emphasizes,
    Watkins has failed to show the requisite prejudice.
    First, the police report is material to Watkins's effort
    to impeach Rudolph, notwithstanding the evidence that Watkins did
    have on hand at the time of trial, because that report provides a
    basis for inferring the existence of a tacit "deal" between Rudolph
    and law enforcement regarding Rudolph's testimony against Watkins
    at trial that pertained to the confession that Rudolph made
    regarding the finger-shooting incident that was not otherwise
    known to Watkins.    For, while the majority is right that Watkins
    knew before trial about the actual deal between Rudolph and law
    enforcement regarding Rudolph's testimony against Watkins at trial
    that could help spare Rudolph from having to serve some prison
    time for the crimes for which he had already been convicted and
    sentenced, this unknown tacit deal would have helped Rudolph in a
    very different way, by ensuring that he would not have to go back
    to prison after he had served his time for those prior crimes.
    Notably, the SJC did not dispute that the police report
    showed that Rudolph confessed to law enforcement to having engaged
    in   criminal   conduct   in   connection   with   the   finger-shooting
    incident that potentially gave rise to serious new charges --
    unlawful possession of a firearm and intentionally making a false
    report of a crime to the investigating officers,             see, e.g.,
    - 52 -
    Commonwealth v. Fortuna, 
    951 N.E.2d 687
    , 693 (Mass. App. Ct. 2011)
    (affirming conviction of making false report of a crime for
    defendant who, after being hospitalized for a close-range and
    possibly self-inflicted gunshot wound, told responding officers
    that he had been shot from afar by an unknown assailant) -- and
    thus potentially to additional prison time beyond that which he
    already had been sentenced to serve.    Nor did the SJC hold that
    the police report provided merely cumulative impeachment evidence
    insofar as it supported the reasonable inference that Rudolph was
    motivated to testify against Watkins out of a concern that he
    otherwise might face such serious new charges due to the confession
    that he had made to law enforcement in relation to the finger
    shooting.    Instead, the SJC held only that the police report
    provided no support for such an inference, because nothing in the
    police report indicated that the law enforcement officers to whom
    Rudolph confessed to having shot himself even knew that Rudolph
    (to use the police report's phrasing) "became a witness" against
    Watkins.
    But, of course, the SJC's factual determination about
    what the law enforcement authorities to whom Rudolph confessed
    knew about Rudolph's relation to the case against Watkins was
    plainly wrong.    And, thus, the SJC, in finding the police report
    to be merely cumulative of the evidence that Watkins already had
    at the time of trial, did so only based on a misapprehension about
    - 53 -
    what that report shows.      Moreover, it is clear to me that, once
    this misapprehension is corrected, the police report could support
    a reasonable inference that Rudolph was testifying against Watkins
    in part to stave off additional prison time that his formal deal
    did not encompass, given that the police report shows that Rudolph
    knew that he had confessed to additional crimes to law enforcement
    authorities who he knew were aware that he had become a witness
    against Watkins.    For, in the face of evidence showing as much, it
    would certainly be reasonable for a juror to infer that Rudolph
    was of the view that his decision to go forward with his testimony
    against Watkins would help him avoid being charged for those new
    crimes.
    Second,    the   police    report   is   material   to   Watkins's
    effort to impeach Rudolph by revealing an instance in which Rudolph
    made false accusations that implicated Watkins (as they implied
    that Watkins's associates had gone after Rudolph violently because
    Rudolph was a potential witness against Watkins) to deflect the
    police's attention from Rudolph's own, possibly criminal, conduct
    -- namely, unlawfully possessing a firearm during the finger-
    shooting incident.    The police report further reveals that, when
    pressed, Rudolph conceded that those accusations were false.            The
    police report thus raises the following new question that no other
    evidence that Watkins had before trial did: if Rudolph was willing
    to protect himself by lying once about who committed a shooting by
    - 54 -
    implicating Watkins in that offense, wouldn't he be willing to do
    it again?     And, the police report also raises one additional new
    question that is closely related: wouldn't Rudolph be especially
    willing to do just that if doing so would spare him from being
    subjected to a new felony conviction and yet more time in prison
    than he already knew that he might have to serve for the crimes
    for which he already had been convicted?
    Perhaps aware of these difficulties with deeming the
    police report to be merely "cumulative" of the impeachment evidence
    that Watkins did have access to before trial, the majority does
    also assert that his Brady challenge to the report's non-disclosure
    fails for an independent reason. Here, the majority contends that,
    even if the police report were not merely cumulative of the other
    evidence that Watkins had in hand prior to trial, "competent
    defense counsel would not have chosen to introduce the finger-shot
    report to the jury" due to that report's potential to prejudice
    Watkins's own case by "opening the door" to the uncorroborated
    allegations    that   Rudolph   had   made   about   Watkins's   associates
    having threatened him for agreeing to testify against Watkins.
    Maj. Op. at 30, 32.
    This contention, however, is not one that the SJC itself
    advanced, the District Court relied on, or the Commonwealth thought
    sufficiently strong to be worth pressing to us in this appeal.
    - 55 -
    And, it is easy to see why those closest to the case have not
    thought much of this ground for denying Watkins's Brady claim.
    The police report does state that Rudolph maintained to
    the police that he had been receiving threats, and the record does
    also show that Rudolph, in his deposition testimony, had referenced
    threats having been made against him by someone connected to
    Watkins.      So, it is true that the use of the police report did
    present some risks.      But, at the same time, the police report
    reveals an instance in which Rudolph sought to protect himself by
    lying about the nature and extent of threats connected to Watkins
    by inventing a story about a gun-wielding attacker to explain his
    gunshot wound.     Thus, the majority arguably has it backwards in
    reasoning that, because Watkins's trial counsel acted competently
    in deciding not to use the evidence of Rudolph's prior recantation
    for fear that using it would open the door to Rudolph's allegations
    of threats by Watkins's associates, "competent defense counsel
    would not have chosen to introduce the finger-shot report to the
    jury."     Maj. Op. at 32.    And that is because the police report
    provides a hitherto unavailable means by which the prejudicial
    impact   of    introducing   Rudolph's    prior   recantation   could   be
    mitigated, given that the police report contains evidence that
    tends to undermine the credibility of Rudolph's allegations about
    the threatening behavior of Watkins's associates in a way that no
    other evidence in the record does.
    - 56 -
    In making this observation, I am not suggesting that we
    may weigh the potential for the police report to bring Rudolph's
    private, pre-trial recantation back into play in assessing the
    prejudicial impact of the police report's non-disclosure.                          I am
    suggesting that the very fact that the police report might have
    that effect illustrates the problem with speculating that because
    Watkins's counsel made the permissible strategic choice not to use
    the evidence of the prior recantation, a reasonably effective
    defense counsel necessarily would not use the withheld police
    report.    After all, the question that we are trying to answer is
    whether    Watkins    can     show   that   "disclosure        of    the   suppressed
    evidence to competent counsel would have made a different result
    reasonably probable."          Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at 441
     (emphases added).
    And, although the majority purports to "take an objective view of
    what   competent      counsel    would      do"    in    reaching     the    apparent
    conclusion that no competent counsel would have introduced the
    withheld    police    report,    Maj.    Op.      at    30   n.15,   the    fact   that
    Watkins's counsel was deemed competent in choosing not to introduce
    entirely different evidence hardly shows, objectively, any such
    thing.     See Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 689 (1984)
    ("There are countless ways to provide effective assistance in any
    given case. Even the best criminal defense attorneys would not
    defend a particular client in the same way.").                   Thus, while it is
    true   that    no    direct    evidence     definitively         establishes       that
    - 57 -
    Watkins's trial counsel would have used the police report, what
    matters is that -- as I have explained -- there is good reason to
    think that a competent defense counsel would have done so.20
    IV.
    In sum, after reviewing Watkins's Brady challenge de
    novo, I am convinced that the fact that the police report was
    withheld does undermine confidence in the guilty verdict that the
    jury rendered.21   Rudolph's testimony identifying Watkins as the
    shooter was the key evidence for the state at trial and that
    testimony was hardly rock solid.     Thus, it does not stretch the
    imagination to think that the police report would have been the
    straw that would have broken the camel's back, when that withheld
    evidence would have enabled Watkins to develop a plausible and
    20To the extent that the majority is suggesting that to show
    prejudice Watkins was required to introduce expert testimony
    showing that competent counsel would have used the withheld police
    report at his trial, it offers no authority to support such a
    requirement, nor does the state itself advance any such argument.
    Maj. Op. at 25–26.
    21Although my analysis has focused on the prejudicial impact
    of the prosecution's withholding of the police report, I note that
    this conclusion is only reinforced by the evidence contained in
    the transcript of Rudolph's dangerousness hearing -- also the
    subject of a Brady claim by Watkins. That transcript shows that
    at that hearing, Rudolph had, in his telling, unsuccessfully
    "s[ought] not to be held" without bail by claiming that "the only
    reason why" he had a firearm was that he was "involved in a murder
    case" and was "being threatened" as a result. Upon being denied
    bail, Rudolph remarked to the judge, "[s]o, now what happens when
    the murder case comes up? Am I to come to court bright eyed and
    bushy tailed and testify against somebody else after this? That's
    not fair, your Honor. It's not fair."
    - 58 -
    coherent account of why Rudolph was not to be believed that Watkins
    otherwise could not make.22
    That is not to say that we may lightly find that a
    failure to disclose evidence in a timely manner is prejudicial for
    Brady purposes.     It is to say that we must not construe Brady's
    prejudice   prong   so   strictly    that    it   becomes,   in   effect,   an
    automatic means of excusing concerning law enforcement practices
    that remain too frequent.     See, e.g., United States v. Nejad, 
    487 F. Supp. 3d 206
    , 213-14, 225–26 (S.D.N.Y. 2020).
    We recently recognized the need to be attentive in
    applying Brady's prejudice prong to the ways that impeachment
    evidence can shift a jury's thinking in a case that heavily depends
    on the testimony of a cooperating witness.            See Flores-Rivera v.
    United States (Flores II), 
    16 F.4th 963
    , 965, 967–69 (1st Cir.
    2021); Flores I, 787 F.3d at 18.23          If we are just as attentive to
    22 I note that the state makes no contention that the other
    evidence on the record against Watkins was in and of itself so
    overwhelming that he cannot show the requisite prejudice for that
    reason alone.    See Smith v. Cain, 
    565 U.S. 73
    , 76 (2012)
    ("[E]vidence impeaching an eyewitness may not be material if the
    State's other evidence is strong enough to sustain confidence in
    the verdict."); Wood v. Bartholomew, 
    516 U.S. 1
    , 8 (1995); United
    States v. Zannino, 
    895 F.2d 1
    , 17 (1st Cir. 1990) (observing that
    arguments not developed on appeal are deemed waived).
    23The majority suggests that Flores II and Watkins's case are
    worlds apart due to the evidence in the record here that
    corroborated a key witness's account against Watkins. Maj. Op. at
    33–35. But, even though the record in Flores II contained video
    evidence that could have inculpated the defendant there, we still
    found that the defendant had shown the requisite prejudice from
    being denied access to evidence she was entitled to see because of
    - 59 -
    the possible power of impeachment evidence to undermine confidence
    in a verdict here, then I am convinced that      -- given that in this
    case,   too,   a   single    cooperating   witness's   testimony   looms
    large -- we must conclude that Watkins has proved the prejudice
    that Brady requires.        For that reason, I am convinced that "law
    and justice" require that we grant his federal habeas petition.
    Shinn v. Martinez Ramirez, No. 20-1009, 
    2022 U.S. LEXIS 2557
    , at
    *18 (U.S. May 23, 2022) (quoting Brown, 142 S. Ct. at 1524).
    I therefore respectfully dissent.
    how much the case hinged on the testimony of cooperating witnesses.
    16 F.4th at 968-69.
    - 60 -