Hamm v. Latessa, MCI ( 1995 )


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  • USCA1 Opinion








    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE FIRST CIRCUIT FOR THE FIRST CIRCUIT

    ___________________
    No. 94-1999

    RALPH C. HAMM, III,

    Petitioner, Appellant,

    v.

    ARTHUR LATESSA, SUPERINTENDENT OF MCI, ET AL.,

    Respondents, Appellees.
    No. 94-2018

    RALPH C. HAMM, III,

    Petitioner, Appellee,

    v.

    ARTHUR LATESSA, SUPERINTENDENT OF MCI, ET AL.,

    Respondents, Appellants.
    ____________________

    APPEALS FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT

    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS

    [Hon. Walter Jay Skinner, Senior U.S. District Judge] __________________________

    ____________________

    Before

    Selya, Cyr and Stahl,
    Circuit Judges. ______________

    ____________________

    Daniel S. Tarlow, with whom John F. Tocci and Glovsky & _________________ ______________ _________
    Associates were on brief, for petitioner. __________
    William J. Meade, Assistant Attorney General, with whom __________________
    Scott Harshbarger, Attorney General, was on brief, for ___________________
    respondents.

    ____________________

    December 28, 1995
    ____________________













    SELYA, Circuit Judge. Petitioner Ralph C. Hamm, III, SELYA, Circuit Judge. ______________

    is currently serving two concurrent, parole-eligible life

    sentences in a Massachusetts state penitentiary. He faces an

    additional twenty-six to forty years in prison from and after the

    culmination of his life sentences. Hamm solicits a writ of

    habeas corpus, naming as respondents the superintendent of the

    state correctional facility where he is confined, the

    Commissioner of Correction, and the Parole Board (hereinafter

    collectively the respondent or the Commonwealth), and contending

    that a policy implemented by the Commonwealth after his

    incarceration delayed his eligibility for a parole hearing. In

    his estimation, the change in policy transgressed both due

    process and the ban on ex post facto laws. The district court

    rejected the latter claim but granted the writ on due process

    grounds and ordered, inter alia, a nunc pro tunc parole hearing. _____ ____ ____ ___ ____

    The petitioner appeals from both the dismissal of his

    ex post facto claim and from the limited grant of relief. The

    Commonwealth cross-appeals from the due process ruling and the

    allowance of any relief. We hold that the Commonwealth's ___

    implementation of the challenged policy neither abridged the

    petitioner's rights under the Due Process Clause nor violated the

    Ex Post Facto Clause. Hence, we reverse the district court's

    order and dismiss the habeas application.

    I. BACKGROUND I. BACKGROUND

    We divide the introductory section of our opinion into

    five segments.


    2












    A. The Underlying Convictions and Sentences. A. The Underlying Convictions and Sentences. ________________________________________

    These appeals have their genesis in events that

    occurred over a quarter-century ago. In 1969, following a bench

    trial, a Massachusetts court found the petitioner guilty of

    charges stemming from a brutal attack and robbery that occurred

    the previous year. A more complete account of the crimes,

    unnecessary here, is available in Commonwealth v. Hamm, 471 ____________ ____

    N.E.2d 416, 418-19 (Mass. App. Ct. 1984) (Hamm I). The trial ______

    court sentenced petitioner to two concurrent, parole-eligible

    terms of life imprisonment for his convictions on counts of armed

    robbery and assault with intent to rape, and to a series of

    consecutive sentences totalling sixty-eight to eighty years on

    the other counts of conviction (including mayhem and assault with

    intent to murder). These consecutive sentences were to be served

    "from and after" the life sentences.1 The appeals court, in an

    unpublished rescript, reduced the from-and-after sentences to

    twenty-six to forty years but upheld the convictions and

    sentences in all other respects.

    B. The Parole-Eligibility Statute. B. The Parole-Eligibility Statute. ______________________________

    The Massachusetts statute governing the parole

    eligibility of convicts serving terms of life imprisonment

    provides (and substantially provided in 1968) that:

    Every prisoner who is serving a sentence
    for life in a correctional institution of the
    commonwealth [with specified exceptions not
    relevant here] shall be eligible for parole,
    ____________________

    1Sacrificing originality for clarity, we refer herein to
    this group of sentences as the "from-and-after sentences."

    3












    and the parole board shall, within sixty days
    before the expiration of fifteen years of
    such sentence, conduct a public hearing
    before the full membership.
    . . . .
    After such hearing the parole board may,
    by a vote of a majority of its members, grant
    to such prisoner a parole permit to be at
    liberty upon such terms and conditions as it
    may prescribe for the unexpired term of his
    sentence. If such permit is not granted, the
    parole board shall, at least once in each
    ensuing three year period, consider carefully
    and thoroughly the merits of each such case .
    . . .

    Mass. Gen. L. ch. 127, 133A. Until 1977, the Commonwealth

    considered inmates who were not only serving life sentences but

    also facing the grim prospect of overhanging from-and-after

    sentences as coming within the purview of section 133A. Based on

    that interpretation of the statute, the Commonwealth granted such

    inmates parole hearings (for possible parole from their life

    sentences into their from-and-after sentences) once they had

    served close to fifteen years. Accordingly, after the state

    court sentenced Hamm, correctional officials advised him that the

    parole-eligibility date referable to his life sentences would be

    November 28, 1983.2

    C. The 1977 Aggregation Policy. C. The 1977 Aggregation Policy. ___________________________

    In 1977, the Commonwealth recast its interpretation of

    section 133A. The impetus for change was the decision of the

    Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court (SJC) in Henschel v. ________
    ____________________

    2The respondent fixed the parole-eligibility date in 1969
    and informed the petitioner of it at that time. It should be
    noted, however, that, giving credit for time served awaiting
    trial and sentencing, the Commonwealth deemed the petitioner's
    effective date of sentence to be November 29, 1968.

    4












    Commissioner of Correction, 330 N.E.2d 480 (Mass. 1975). _____________________________

    Henschel required the aggregation for parole-eligibility purposes ________

    of a prisoner's consecutive county house of correction and state

    institution sentences. See id. at 483-85. The SJC advanced a ___ ___

    thoughtful justification in support of aggregation:

    To follow the defendant's [non-aggregation]
    approach would require the board to make a
    series of decisions granting parole from one
    sentence to the next rather than a single
    decision on the basis of one parole
    eligibility date for all sentences. The
    former procedure makes little sense since the
    decision to grant parole is to be based on
    whether the board believes the prisoner can
    live freely outside of prison without
    violating the law.

    Id. at 484. The Commonwealth found this rationale to be equally ___

    convincing in the context of making decisions to parole prisoners

    serving life sentences into overhanging from-and-after sentences.

    Consequently, it rethought its earlier interpretation of section

    133A and revised its policies regarding parole eligibility for

    certain classes of inmates, including lifers who faced impending

    from-and-after sentences. Under the neoteric policy, such

    inmates were not regarded as falling under section 133A and would

    no longer receive parole hearings at the fifteen-year mark;

    instead, the parole-ineligible portion of the prisoner's life

    sentence (fifteen years) would be aggregated with the parole-

    ineligible portion of his from-and-after sentences to arrive at a

    "real" parole-eligibility date, that is to say, a single date at

    which a favorable parole decision would result in the prisoner's

    actual release from incarceration, not just his parole from one


    5












    sentence into another.3 While this paradigm was not compelled

    by the holding in Henschel (which did not specifically address ________

    the aggregation of life sentences with from-and-after sentences),

    the respondent determined that the new arrangement more

    faithfully mirrored the tenets undergirding Henschel. ________

    In 1982 the year before Hamm would have received his

    initial section 133A hearing under the former policy the

    Commonwealth applied the new policy to him and recalculated his

    parole-eligibility date.4 The aggregation resulted in a single,
    ____________________

    3The document explaining the new policy, issued jointly by
    the Department of Correction and the Parole Board, bore the title
    "New Policies and Practices Regarding Aggregation of ``From and
    After' Sentences (Henschel Decision)." It states in relevant
    part:

    [I]t has become necessary to revise existing
    procedures and policies covering aggregation
    of "from and after" (i.e. consecutive)
    sentences for purposes of computing parole
    eligibility and good conduct deductions.

    . . . .
    Life Sentences ______________
    Life sentences on which there is no parole
    eligibility . . . cannot be aggregated with
    any other sentences for parole eligibility
    purposes. Life sentences which do carry
    parole eligibility . . . will be aggregated ____
    with other sentences for parole eligibility
    purposes . . . .

    4For much of the life of this litigation, the Commonwealth
    stubbornly insisted that it aggregated Hamm's sentences pursuant
    to a different, long-established policy, and that its newly
    contrived 1977 policy did not effect any change regarding
    prisoners such as Hamm. Dissatisfied with the record on this
    point, we retained appellate jurisdiction and remanded for
    factfinding. The district court conducted an evidentiary hearing
    and found, on the basis of the petitioner's prison records and
    testimony from former and current counsel to the Parole Board,
    that prior to 1977 the respondent did in fact follow a practice
    of providing fifteen-year parole hearings to life prisoners

    6












    "real" parole-eligibility date of November 2001.5 Though this

    structural change obviated the need for the petitioner to obtain

    two parole permits to secure his release in 2001, he claims that

    it also impermissibly deprived him of an opportunity for release

    at an earlier date.

    The petitioner's thesis runs along the following lines.

    Massachusetts law affords prisoners serving indeterminate terms

    of years various ways to reduce their sentences. These same

    options, Hamm claims, are not available to prisoners who are

    serving life sentences. Thus, if he had been paroled into his

    (indeterminate) from-and-after sentences in 1983, he could have

    availed himself of these opportunities and possibly could have

    gained his freedom earlier than 2001. Under the 1977 policy,

    however, he effectively remains on "life sentence status" during

    the full term of his immurement and, therefore, cannot take

    advantage of these early-release opportunities, which include:

    (1) Establishing a "Wrap-up" Date. Once paroled into ______________________________

    his from-and-after sentences, the petitioner would immediately

    ____________________

    facing from-and-after sentences. The Commonwealth now accepts
    this finding and has recanted its assertion that it did not
    retroactively subject the petitioner to a new policy.

    5The exact manner in which the respondent arrived at this
    date is inscrutable. The underlying calculation is not revealed
    in the court papers and Hamm's post-1982 prison records (which
    from time to time have indicated various parole-eligibility dates
    ranging from 1999 to 2001) are little help. We need not probe
    the point too deeply, however, inasmuch as the Commonwealth has
    not disputed the petitioner's contention that his parole-
    eligibility date under the 1977 aggregation policy is in November
    of 2001. Like the district court, we will assume that to be the
    correct date.

    7












    acquire, subject to divestiture for misconduct, statutory good

    time under Mass. Gen. L. ch. 127, 129. This "good time" would

    be based on the top end of his indeterminate sentences (forty

    years) and would, the petitioner claims, amount to sixteen and

    one-half years. He could earn additional good-time credits (up

    to seven and one-half days per month) by participating in

    educational and vocational programs.6 See Mass. Gen. L. ch. ___

    127, 129D. Moreover, the sentencing court (both initially and

    on resentencing) gave the petitioner 210 days credit on his four

    from-and-after sentences for pre-sentence incarceration. Hamm

    theorizes that this credit applies separately to each of his four

    from-and-after sentences, yielding an aggregate credit of two

    years and four months for jail time.

    We assume arguendo the accuracy of the petitioner's ________

    figures without independently verifying them.7 These potential

    reductions, totalling twenty-three years and one month, would, if

    garnered, enable him to leave prison without undergoing a second

    parole hearing after serving just sixteen years and eleven months



    ____________________

    6Good-time credits that a convict earns while serving a life
    sentence apparently do not reduce his life sentence or his
    parole-ineligible term; we are told that they are simply "banked"
    and only become useful to him in the event that his life sentence
    is commuted to a term of years. Upon parole into a from-and-
    after sentence, the convict would lose his "banked" good-time
    credits.

    7The record is tenebrous as to many of Hamm's claims, and
    some of them, e.g., the claim of an entitlement to an 840-day
    credit for pre-sentence incarceration, strike us as
    counterintuitive.

    8












    on his from-and-after sentences.8 Hence, if the petitioner had

    been paroled into his from-and-after sentences in November of

    1983, he might have established a wrap-up date in October 2000,

    thus bringing about his release more than a year earlier than his

    current aggregated parole-eligibility date.

    (2) Early Parole. Once paroled into his from-and- _____________

    after sentences, the petitioner could also reduce the parole-

    ineligibility period of these sentences, which otherwise would

    remain at seventeen years and four months. First, he asserts

    that he would be credited automatically with the same two years

    and four months of jail time. But see note 7, supra, and ___ ___ _____

    accompanying text. Second, his earned good time would

    effectively count as time served toward his parole-ineligible

    term. On this basis, he argues that if he had gained parole from

    his life sentences in 1983 and earned section 129D credits from

    then on at the maximum rate, he might have been eligible for

    "real" parole as early as November of 1995.9

    (3) Special Parole. The petitioner's final ________________
    ____________________

    8This optimistic calculation assumes, inter alia, that Hamm _____ ____
    would earn section 129D good time at the maximum possible rate
    over the duration of his from-and-after sentences. If Hamm
    serves sixteen years and eleven months of his from-and-after
    sentences on his best behavior, he could theoretically accumulate
    1,522.5 days of earned good time.

    9The petitioner arrives at this date by taking the following
    route: 208 months (Hamm's statutory parole-ineligible term) less
    28 months (pre-sentence jail credits) less 36 months (maximum
    possible section 129D credits during first twelve years of from-
    and-after sentences) = 144 months. If Hamm had begun serving his
    from-and-after sentences in November of 1983, and if his other
    assumptions proved true, he had a possibility of securing a
    parole hearing in November, 1995.

    9












    opportunity-related theory suggests that aggregation has already

    deprived him of the possibility of obtaining special

    consideration parole as early as 1989, after serving just one-

    third of his from-and-after minimum sentences, less jail credits.

    See Hamm v. Commissioner of Correction, 564 N.E.2d 1032, 1033 ___ ____ ___________________________

    n.5 (Mass. App. Ct.) (Hamm II), rev. denied, 566 N.E.2d 1131 ________ ____ ______

    (Mass. 1991). The respondent effectively parries this thrust,

    stating that Hamm may apply for this type of parole consideration

    even under the 1977 aggregation policy. Finding no evidence in

    the record that the petitioner has made an effort to apply for

    special consideration parole, or that the Parole Board would not

    consider his request, we cannot conclude that aggregation has

    deprived the petitioner of this benefit. See id. Accordingly, ___ ____

    we do not further discuss this aspect of Hamm's claim of harm.

    D. The 1988 Policy. D. The 1988 Policy. _______________

    The Commonwealth revisited its parole-eligibility

    policy anent life prisoners facing from-and-after sentences in

    1988, and resumed the practice of providing them with parole

    hearings at or near the fifteen-year mark. A 1990 document

    prepared by the respondent, entitled "Parole Eligibility

    Regulations, Policies, Procedures," explains that parole-eligible

    life sentences are an exception to the general aggregation policy

    "because of the statutory requirement that a parole hearing be

    held after a definite period of time." The about-face did not

    ameliorate the petitioner's professed plight; the respondent

    declined to apply this policy retroactively because such an


    10












    application, it feared, might hurt prisoners approaching their

    aggregated parole-eligibility dates. Thus, Hamm's parole-

    eligibility date was not recalculated, and he remains

    incarcerated with no parole hearing on the horizon until November

    of 2001.

    E. The Habeas Proceedings. E. The Habeas Proceedings. ______________________

    The petitioner initiated state habeas proceedings in

    1990, arguing, among other things, that the Commonwealth's

    failure to provide him with a parole hearing in 1983 deprived him

    of his right to due process of law, and that the 1977 policy, as

    applied to him, violated the prohibition on ex post facto laws.

    A state superior court judge dismissed the petition, and the

    Massachusetts Appeals Court upheld the aggregation of the

    petitioner's sentences for purposes of determining parole

    eligibility.10 See Hamm II, 564 N.E. 2d at 1033-34. After the ___ _______

    SJC denied further appellate review, the petitioner initiated

    federal habeas proceedings.
    ____________________

    10The court appeared to misconstrue the petitioner's ex post
    facto argument; rather than focusing on whether the 1977 policy,
    as applied, differed materially from the policy in effect in
    1968, the court focused on the 1988 policy and ruled that Hamm
    was not entitled to enjoy its benefits. On this point, the court
    wrote:

    The plaintiff's situation does not present an
    ex post facto issue. The rules have not been
    changed adversely to him. Rather, the
    reverse has occurred: after his offenses and
    sentencing, a rule has changed in a manner
    that, if applied to him, would work to his
    advantage or so the plaintiff seems to
    think.

    Hamm II, 564 N.E.2d at 1034-35. _______

    11












    The district court found that the Commonwealth had in

    fact applied a change in the law to petitioner, but it concluded

    that the change did not harm him and therefore posed no ex post

    facto problem. On the due process claim, the court took a more

    receptive stance. It interpreted section 133A as mandating that

    petitioner receive a parole hearing on his life sentences after

    fifteen years, and ruled that the Commonwealth's failure to

    provide him a hearing in that time frame deprived him of due

    process. The court ordered the state to convene such a hearing

    nunc pro tunc, and to continue convening such hearings at three- ____ ___ ____

    year intervals should parole be denied. See Hamm v. Latessa, No. ___ ____ _______

    91-10667-WJS, slip op. at 14 (D. Mass. May 18, 1994) (Hamm III). _________

    The court also decreed that if, despite the serial parole

    hearings, the petitioner remained in custody beyond 2001, then in

    such event, the 1977 policy should be applied to him as written

    from that date forward. See id. ___ ___

    II. ANALYSIS II. ANALYSIS

    We bifurcate our analysis, examining each of the

    petitioner's constitutional claims under a separate heading.

    A. The Due Process Claim. A. The Due Process Claim. _____________________

    The district court found that section 133A applied to

    the petitioner and afforded him a liberty interest in the

    convening of a parole hearing in 1983 (as he neared the fifteen-

    year mark of his life sentences). The court based this finding

    on its interpretation of section 133A, emphasizing that the

    statute is written in mandatory and unequivocal terms "Every


    12












    prisoner who is serving a sentence for life . . . shall be _____

    eligible for parole, and the parole board shall, within sixty _____

    days before the expiration of fifteen years of such sentence,

    conduct a public hearing . . . ." (emphasis supplied) and makes

    no exception on its face for life prisoners who also have from-

    and-after sentences in prospect. To buttress this view, the

    court noted that the aggregation policy expressed in section 133A

    could not apply to the petitioner because his life sentences by

    definition contain no "minimum" sentence, and therefore cannot be

    aggregated with his from-and-after sentences to determine parole

    eligibility. Building on this foundation, the court held that

    the petitioner had an unequivocal statutory right to be

    considered for parole into his from-and-after sentences once he

    had served fifteen years of his life sentences, and that the

    Commonwealth unconstitutionally deprived him of this liberty

    interest by aggregating his life sentences with his from-and-

    after sentences and by failing to grant him an initial parole

    hearing in 1983.

    We cannot accept the lower court's analysis. It is

    settled that a statute providing for early release or other

    benefits under stipulated conditions may sometimes confer upon

    prison inmates a liberty interest protected by the Due Process

    Clause.11 See Board of Pardons v. Allen, 482 U.S. 369, 373-81 ___ _________________ _____
    ____________________

    11This is so even though, as a general rule, a convict has
    "no constitutional or inherent right . . . to be conditionally
    released before the expiration of a valid sentence." Greenholtz __________
    v. Nebraska Penal Inmates, 442 U.S. 1, 7 (1979). The Greenholtz ______________________ __________
    generality like virtually all generalities admits of some

    13












    (1987); Greenholtz v. Nebraska Penal Inmates, 442 U.S. 1, 12 __________ ________________________

    (1979); Wolff v. McDonnel, 418 U.S. 539, 556-72 (1974); see also _____ ________ ___ ____

    Kentucky Dept. of Corrections v. Thompson, 490 U.S. 454, 461-62 ______________________________ ________

    (1989) (restating principle and citing cases but finding no

    liberty interest created by state regulations governing

    visitation). At the time the district court issued its order,

    constitutional doctrine suggested that a state creates such a

    liberty interest "by establishing ``substantive predicates' to

    govern official decision-making . . . and, further, by mandating

    the outcome to be reached upon a finding that the relevant

    criteria have been met." Thompson, 490 U.S. at 462 (quoting ________

    Hewitt v. Helms, 459 U.S. 460, 472 (1983), and omitting ______ _____

    citation). The statute at issue in Allen, for example, used _____

    "mandatory language (``shall') to ``creat[e] a presumption that

    parole release will be granted' when the designated findings are

    made." Allen, 482 U.S. at 377-78 (quoting Greenholtz, 442 U.S. _____ __________

    at 12) (alterations in original).

    In recent years, the tectonic plates have shifted. In

    Sandin v. Conner, 115 S. Ct. 2293 (1995), the Justices explained ______ ______

    that, rather than relying on the presence or absence of mandatory

    language in determining whether a statute or regulation confers a

    liberty interest, courts should focus their inquiry on the nature

    of the interest allegedly created by the state. See id. at 2297- ___ ___

    3000. State-created liberty interests "will be generally limited

    to freedom from restraint which, while not exceeding the sentence
    ____________________

    exceptions.

    14












    in such an unexpected manner as to give rise to protection by the

    Due Process Clause of its own force . . . nonetheless imposes

    atypical and significant hardship on the inmate in relation to

    the ordinary incidents of prison life." Id. at 2300 (citations ___

    omitted).

    While the question of whether a state law creates a

    liberty interest protected by the Due Process Clause is clearly

    one of federal constitutional law, the preliminary question of

    parsing the state law to determine its substance is not within

    the primary domain of a federal habeas court. See Estelle v. ___ _______

    McGuire, 502 U.S. 62, 67-68 (1991). Federal courts "are bound by _______

    a State's interpretation of its own statute." Garner v. ______

    Louisiana, 368 U.S. 157, 166 (1961). Particularly relevant here _________

    is Hebert v. Louisiana, 272 U.S. 312 (1926). In Hebert, a ______ _________ ______

    convicted defendant claimed that a state court's incorrect

    construction of state law led to the imposition of a more onerous

    sentence and thereby violated the Due Process Clause. The Court

    rejected that claim, stating:

    Whether state statutes shall be construed one
    way or another is a state question, the final
    decision of which rests with the courts of
    the State. The due process of law clause in
    the Fourteenth Amendment does not take up the
    statutes of the several States and make them
    the test of what it requires; nor does it
    enable this Court to revise the decisions of
    the state courts on questions of state law.

    Id. at 316. The rule, then, is that a federal habeas court will ___

    not disturb the state courts' construction or application of

    state law unless it can be shown that such construction or


    15












    application offends the Constitution or some (applicable) federal

    statute. See Bowser v. Boggs, 20 F.3d 1060, 1065 (10th Cir. ___ ______ _____

    1994); Smith v. McCotter, 786 F.2d 697, 700 (5th Cir. 1986); cf. _____ ________ ___

    Martinez v. California, 444 U.S. 277, 282 (1980) (explaining that ________ __________

    a state's interest in fashioning its own rules of state law is

    paramount to any federal interest except protecting individuals ______

    from state action that is wholly arbitrary and irrational).

    Given the clearly demarcated boundaries of federal

    habeas review, the proper function of the court below was not to

    second-guess the state court as to what substantive guarantees

    the Commonwealth's statutory and regulatory mosaic provided under

    the particular circumstances, but, rather, simply to determine

    whether the respondent's application of its parole scheme, deemed

    lawful by the state's courts, violated the Due Process Clause.

    The district court set out to accomplish the former task instead

    of the latter. In so doing, it erred.

    Here, a Massachusetts state court has already ruled

    that section 133A, as it read both in 1968 and 1983, conveyed no

    right to a fifteen-year hearing, and, moreover, that the

    respondent's aggregation of Hamm's sentences was a permissible

    policy notwithstanding any contrary signposts in the text of the

    state statute. See Hamm II, 564 N.E.2d at 1033-34. We believe ___ _______

    that we are duty bound to follow this authoritative exposition of

    state law and, concomitantly, to reject the district court's






    16












    impromptu interpretation of state law.12 See McGuire, 502 U.S. ___ _______

    at 67-68; Garner, 368 U.S. at 166. ______

    We have considered and rejected the petitioner's

    argument that the state appellate court's decision is "so

    inconsistent with the statute's language and history that the

    state court decision itself [comprises] a wholly arbitrary and

    irrational action in violation of due process." Ellard v. ______

    Alabama Bd. of Pardons and Paroles, 824 F.2d 937, 944 n.7 (11th ___________________________________

    Cir. 1987) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted), cert. _____

    denied, 485 U.S. 981 (1988). A federal court must not exercise ______

    the raw power to strike down state laws in the name of the

    Constitution with too much gusto. Section 133A is silent on the

    parole eligibility of life prisoners facing from-and-after
    ____________________

    12We reach this conclusion cognizant that what we deem a
    controlling state court interpretation of state law emanated from
    an intermediate appellate court. Intermediate appellate court
    decisions "are trustworthy data for ascertaining state law,"
    Losacco v. F.D. Rich Constr. Co., 992 F.2d 382, 384 (1st Cir.), _______ ______________________
    cert. denied, 114 S. Ct. 324 (1993), and, in the absence of other _____ ______
    telltales indicating that the state's highest tribunal would have
    ruled otherwise, we believe it is prudent to accept the appeals
    court's interpretation as authoritative. See, e.g., Fidelity ___ ____ ________
    Union Trust Co. v. Field, 311 U.S. 169, 177-78 (1940) ("An ________________ _____
    intermediate state court in declaring and applying the state law
    is acting as an organ of the State and its determination, in the
    absence of more convincing evidence of what the state law is,
    should be followed by a federal court in deciding a state
    question.").
    The respondent's 1988 about-face and its return to a
    non-aggregation policy for life inmates does not suggest a
    different outcome. Given the language of the statute and the
    discretion reposed in the Parole Board, it is entirely plausible
    that both the 1977 and 1988 policies are permissible
    interpretations of state law. Cf. Strickland v. Commissioner, ___ __________ _____________
    Me. Dept. of Human Servs., 48 F.3d 12, 17-18 (1st Cir.) (holding _________________________
    that an agency's rule may receive the usual degree of deference
    even when it represents a "sharp departure from a longstanding
    prior interpretation"), cert. denied, 116 S. Ct. 145 (1995). _____ ______

    17












    sentences; a Massachusetts court had never before ruled on the

    issue: and the appeals court based its holding on Henschel, which ________

    provided a defensible rationale for an aggregation policy.13

    Under these circumstances, it would be unprincipled to declare by

    federal fiat that the Due Process Clause broadly nullifies the

    Commonwealth's power to construe and apply its laws correctly.

    See Lerner v. Gill, 751 F.2d 450, 459 (1st Cir.), cert. denied, ___ ______ ____ _____ ______

    472 U.S. 1010 (1985).

    The petitioner has also asserted that his fourteen

    years of state-induced reliance on a prospective 1983 parole

    hearing, followed by the state's abrupt shift in policy, deprived

    him of due process. In mounting this challenge, he embraces our

    decisions in Lerner and in DeWitt v. Ventetuolo, 6 F.3d 32 (1st ______ ______ __________

    Cir. 1993), cert. denied, 114 S. Ct. 1542 (1994). Hamm's ardor _____ ______

    is mislaid. Those cases addressed the power of a state court

    retroactively to correct an erroneous sentence or a mistaken

    interpretation of state law. See DeWitt, 6 F.3d at 34-35; ___ ______

    Lerner, 751 F.2d at 458-59. However, the calculation of the ______

    petitioner's original parole-eligibility date was not

    "incorrect," so he arguably possessed a greater interest in

    seeing it carried out than would a prisoner who was the

    beneficiary of a botched calculation. Nevertheless, the

    ____________________

    13Henschel supports the view that, since parole decisions ________
    are premised on whether the Parole Board believes a convict can
    live outside prison without behaving in an antisocial manner, the
    Parole Board should not normally be required to make a series of
    decisions paroling a convict from one sentence to another. See ___
    Henschel, 330 N.E.2d at 484. ________

    18












    Lerner/DeWitt line of cases does not invalidate the ______ ______

    Commonwealth's actions. We explain briefly.

    Though we observed in Lerner, 751 F.2d at 458, that ______

    "unforeseeable changes . . . made after the passage of a

    substantial period of time may, in some presumably extreme

    circumstances, be fundamentally unfair and hence violative of due

    process even if designed to correct an illegal sentence," this

    observation is inapposite here. In the first place, we do not

    think that the Massachusetts Appeals Court decision was

    unforeseeable; as stated above, the statute was silent on the

    precise situation, there was no decisional law directly on the __

    point, and Henschel adumbrated the result reached in Hamm II. In ________ _______

    the second place, a convict must show special prejudice stemming

    from a changed interpretation. See DeWitt, 6 F.3d at 35. This ___ ______

    requisite showing must consist of something more tangible than

    merely demonstrating that "hopes were raised only to be dashed."

    Lerner, 751 F.2d at 459. Hamm has not suffered prejudice even ______

    remotely approaching that sustained by Lerner, whose parole-

    ineligibility period was extended from ten years to twenty years

    after he had (1) undergone two parole hearings, (2) moved into a

    minimum-security facility and accepted other privileges, and (3)

    transported his family to another state and caused them to invest

    in a business to create an employment opportunity for him, see ___

    id. at 453 to whom we denied relief under the Due Process ___

    Clause, see id. at 459. ___ ___

    In this case, all roads lead to Rome. We hold that the


    19












    Commonwealth did not infract the petitioner's rights under the

    Due Process Clause when it failed to provide him a parole hearing

    in 1983. The administrative scheme in force at that time,

    approved as lawful by a state appellate court, did not mandate

    that petitioner receive a parole hearing after fifteen years. In

    ruling to the contrary, the district court erred.

    B. The Ex Post Facto Claim. B. The Ex Post Facto Claim. _______________________

    Article 1, 10 of the Constitution ("No State shall .

    . . pass any . . . ex post facto Law") has been interpreted to

    forbid the enactment of

    any statute which punishes as a crime an act
    previously committed, which was innocent when
    done; which makes more burdensome the
    punishment for a crime, after its commission,
    or which deprives one charged with crime of
    any defense available according to law at the
    time when the act was committed . . . .

    Beazell v. Ohio, 269 U.S. 167, 169-70 (1925); see also California _______ ____ ___ ____ __________

    Dept. of Corrections v. Morales, 115 S. Ct. 1597, 1601 (1995) ____________________ _______

    (stating that "the Clause is aimed at laws that retroactively

    alter the definition of crimes or increase the punishment for

    criminal acts") (citation and internal quotation marks omitted);

    Collins v. Youngblood, 497 U.S. 37, 42 (1990) (quoting Beazell). _______ __________ _______

    Petitioner asseverates that, by depriving him of opportunities to

    obtain his release earlier than November of 2001, the 1977

    aggregation policy made his punishment more burdensome and is,

    therefore, an impermissible ex post facto law. The Commonwealth

    demurs. In its view, the 1977 policy is not a "law" subject to

    the ex post facto proscription, and in all events, the resultant


    20












    aggregation did not increase the petitioner's punishment.

    Because we agree with the Commonwealth's second contention, we

    need not decide the thorny question of whether the 1977 policy

    comprised a "law" subject to ex post facto analysis.14

    In line with the foregoing, we assume for argument's

    sake, but do not decide, that the 1977 aggregation policy

    constituted a regulation possessing the full force and effect of

    law, and that it is therefore subject to analysis under the Ex

    Post Facto Clause. This assumption brings us to the decisive

    question: Does the 1977 policy, as applied to the petitioner,

    infringe the constitutional proscription against ex post facto

    laws?

    ____________________

    14We note in passing that, although the Supreme Court has
    not addressed the question of whether an administrative policy or
    regulation can be an ex post facto law, a number of courts have
    held that binding administrative regulations, as opposed to those
    that serve merely as guidelines for discretionary decisionmaking,
    are laws subject to ex post facto analysis. See, e.g., Akins v. ___ ____ _____
    Snow, 922 F.2d 1558, 1561 (11th Cir. 1991) (holding that Georgia ____
    parole board's new regulation promulgated pursuant to delegated
    legislative power that changed period between inmate's parole
    hearings from one year to eight years was a law subject to ex
    post facto analysis), cert. denied, 501 U.S. 1260 (1991); _____ ______
    Rodriguez v. United States Parole Comm'n, 594 F.2d 170, 174 (7th _________ ___________________________
    Cir. 1979) (deeming a new regulation that eliminated a parole
    hearing after one-third of a prisoner's sentence "tantamount to a
    statute" for ex post facto purposes); Love v. Fitzharris, 460 ____ __________
    F.2d 382, 385 (9th Cir. 1972) (holding that a state's
    recalculation of a prisoner's parole-eligibility date under a new
    interpretation of the governing statutes violated the Ex Post
    Facto Clause because the state had changed its interpretation
    midstream), vacated as moot, 409 U.S. 1100 (1973). There are, of _______ __ ____
    course, cases mostly involving the federal Parole Commission's
    guidelines that can be read as holding the other way. See, ___
    e.g., Kelly v. Southerland, 967 F.2d 1531, 1532-33 (11th Cir. ____ _____ ___________
    1992); Inglese v. United States Parole Comm'n, 768 F.2d 932, 936 _______ ___________________________
    (7th Cir. 1985). We see nothing to be gained from entering this
    thicket without a compelling need to do so.

    21












    It is a universal truth that, for a law to offend the

    Ex Post Facto Clause, it must be "more onerous than the prior

    law." Dobbert v. Florida, 432 U.S. 282, 294 (1977). The _______ _______

    prescribed inquiry demands that we compare the new law with the

    old in its totality to ascertain "if the new may be fairly

    characterized as more onerous." Id. The inquiry must be carried ___

    out in practical, as opposed to purely theoretical, terms; the ex

    post facto prohibition does not foreclose every change in the law

    that possesses some imaginable risk of adversely affecting an

    inmate's punishment. See Morales, 115 S. Ct. at 1602. In the ___ _______

    last analysis, "the question of what legislative adjustments will

    be held to be of sufficient moment to transgress the

    constitutional prohibition must be a matter of degree." Id. at ___

    1603.

    There is no mechanical formula for identifying which

    legislative changes have a sufficiently profound impact on

    substantive crimes or punishments to cross the constitutional

    line and which do not. Consequently, courts must determine, case

    by case, whether a particular change in the governing law

    "produces a sufficient risk of increasing the measure of

    punishment attached to the covered crimes." Id. If so, the Ex ___

    Post Facto Clause comes into play. See Hill v. Jackson, 64 F.3d ___ ____ _______

    163, 167-170 (4th Cir. 1995).

    Morales is the touchstone of modern ex post facto _______

    jurisprudence. There, the Justices examined a state statute that

    permitted parole boards to defer parole suitability hearings for


    22












    up to three years for double murderers and certain other

    prisoners if the board specifically found that it was

    unreasonable to expect that parole would be granted during the

    intervening years. The Court concluded that the statute created

    "only the most speculative and attenuated possibility of

    producing the prohibited effect of increasing the measure of

    punishment for covered crimes," and held that these "conjectural

    effects" were insufficient to animate the Ex Post Facto Clause.

    Morales, 115 S. Ct. at 1603 (footnote and internal citations _______

    omitted).

    Buttressing its conclusion, the Court identified

    several aspects of the statute that neutralized the risk of

    increasing the measure of punishment. First, the statute applied

    only to "a class of prisoners for whom the likelihood of release

    on parole is quite remote." Id. at 1603. Second, the statute ___

    cabined the parole board's discretion by requiring it to make a

    specific finding that a particular prisoner was unlikely to be

    paroled. See id. Third, the statute only applied to those who ___ ___

    were denied parole eligibility the first time around, thus

    restricting the affected class to those least likely to be found

    suitable for parole. See id. Finally, though the statute ___ ___

    addressed the frequency of suitability hearings, it empowered the

    board to "tailor the frequency of subsequent suitability hearings

    to the particular circumstances of the individual prisoner." Id. ___

    The Court also noted that "the possibility of immediate release

    after a finding of suitability for parole is largely theoretical;


    23












    in many cases, the prisoner's parole release date comes at least

    several years after a finding of suitability," and so "the

    practical effect of a hearing postponement is not significant."

    Id. (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). ___

    At bottom, Morales is about the risk or likelihood of _______

    harm: the Court upheld the California statute largely because it

    found the risk of increased punishment posed by the new law to be

    speculative and, at any rate, to fall within acceptably small

    boundaries.15 Viewed against this backdrop, Hamm's case

    founders. Though the parole scheme in effect in 1968 may have

    afforded him the possibility of terminating his incarceration as

    early as 1995 if a series of events materialized, it seems highly

    unlikely that these events would have come to pass. The

    likelihood of harm, therefore, is tiny. And, moreover, it is at

    least equally possible that, because of the structural

    differences imposed by the two policies, Hamm may well have

    languished in prison longer under the old scheme than under the

    new. On balance, then, it is virtually impossible to
    ____________________

    15The dissent strongly suggests that Morales stands for the _______
    bright-line proposition that any action which substantially
    delays, or deprives a prisoner of, an initial parole hearing
    works a per se violation of the Ex Post Facto Clause. The ___ __
    Morales Court rejected a similar argument, emphasizing that such _______
    an "arbitrary line has absolutely no basis in the Constitution.
    If a delay in parole hearings raises ex post facto concerns, it __ ____ _____
    is because that delay effectively increases a prisoner's term of
    confinement, and not because the hearing itself has independent
    constitutional significance." Morales, 115 S. Ct. at 1603 n.4. _______
    The dissent's mechanical approach not only ignores this
    admonition but also overlooks Morales's central holding, namely, _______
    that a proper ex post facto inquiry must focus on the risk that
    the prisoner will be subject to an increased measure of
    punishment.

    24












    prognosticate the risk that the petitioner may be released at a

    later date because the 1977 policy rather than its predecessor,

    controls in his case.

    Under the original policy, unless the petitioner

    managed to obtain parole in 1983 and thereafter amassed all

    possible credits, he would still have to be paroled a second time

    in order to be released as early as 1995, or, alternatively, to

    garner every conceivable credit in order to attain a wrap-up date

    in October of 2000. The record is bereft of any evidence

    suggesting that Hamm would probably achieve prompt parole into

    his from-and-after sentences, become a model prisoner, go on to

    earn all available credits, and then be paroled out of, or

    otherwise released from, his from-and-after sentences at any time

    before 2001.16 In fine, this case, like Morales, involves a _______

    situation in which the possibility of harm is entirely

    speculative.17
    ____________________

    16If past is prologue, cf. W. Shakespeare, The Tempest, act ___ ___________
    II, sc. i (1612), all of these prospects seem extremely dubious.
    Hamm's disciplinary record reveals a cavalcade of misconduct,
    including episodes of inciting a prison riot, arson, assaulting a
    guard, attempting an escape, conspiring to take a hostage,
    organizing a work stoppage, and possessing controlled substances.
    These are not the emblemata of an inmate who is likely either to
    inspire a parole board to act favorably on his behalf or to
    accumulate good-time credits at a rapid rate.

    17There are, of course, other similarities to Morales. We _______
    mention two of them. First, the challenged policy here like
    the statute at issue in Morales, 115 S. Ct at 1603 applies only _______
    to a limited class of prisoners (here, life inmates who face the
    overhanging prospect of from-and-after sentences) for whom the
    likelihood of release on parole is considerably below the norm.
    Second, the availability of special parole, see supra Part ___ _____
    I(C)(3), offers the Parole Board the flexibility that the Morales _______
    Court deemed important. See id. at 1604. ___ ___

    25












    This case also possesses a further dimension that

    weighs against the petitioner's position. Whereas the new law in

    Morales could not conceivably have inured to a prisoner's _______

    benefit, the new aggregation policy that the Commonwealth adopted

    in 1977 might very well redound to the petitioner's advantage.

    After all, the 1977 policy eliminates the need for two parole

    permits and ensures that the petitioner will be eligible for

    parole from all his sentences at one fell swoop. Under the old ___

    policy, if the respondent denied the petitioner parole into his

    from-and-after sentences in 1983, 1986, and 1989 not an

    unlikely eventuality in light of Hamm's mottled record his

    wrap-up date, even assuming the accrual of all conceivable

    credits, would not occur until sometime in 2006. This is a full

    five years after the date on which he could be paroled from all _____

    his sentences under the 1977 policy.

    This scenario prompted the district court to conclude

    that "[i]n 1982, when the respondent recalculated the

    petitioner's parole eligibility, it was not clear whether the

    petitioner would be helped or harmed by aggregation; the balance

    sheet is unclear even today." Hamm III, slip op. at 10.18 _________
    ____________________

    18The Morales Court pointed out that the relevant inquiry _______
    must not focus "on whether a legislative change produces some
    ambiguous sort of ``disadvantage,' . . . but on whether any such
    change . . . increases the penalty by which a crime is
    punishable." Morales, 115 S. Ct. at 1602 n.3. Despite the fact _______
    that the district court issued its opinion without the benefit of
    Morales and framed the corresponding part of its ruling as an _______
    inquiry into whether the 1977 policy resulted in a
    "[d]isadvantage to the petitioner," it nonetheless made a
    thoroughgoing examination of the uncertainty inherent in
    comparing potential results under the old and new policies.

    26












    This statement is unarguably accurate, and the uncertainty that

    it portends strips the veneer of plausibility from the

    petitioner's ex post facto initiative. Morales makes it crystal _______

    clear that such uncertainty militates against the petitioner

    because any other approach would "effectively shift[] to the

    State the burden of persuasion as to [the prisoner's] ex post

    facto claim." Id. at 1603 n.6. A party who asserts an ex post ___

    facto claim must show a real possibility of cognizable harm, not

    a theoretical possibility bound up in gossamer strands of

    speculation and surmise.

    We find illuminating a recent decision of another court

    that needed to construct the ex post facto balance of prospective

    benefits and burdens. In United States v. McGee, 60 F.3d 1266 _____________ _____

    (7th Cir. 1995), the court addressed an amendment that became law

    following the defendant's conviction but before the imposition of

    sentence. The amendment eliminated a twelve-month minimum

    sentence for the offense of conviction and replaced it with a

    range of twenty-one to twenty-four months. The district court

    imposed the maximum twenty-four-month sentence. The defendant

    appealed, claiming that the amendment violated the ex post facto

    prohibition because it removed the possibility of a shorter

    sentence, i.e., a sentence of between twelve and twenty-one

    months. The Seventh Circuit disagreed. It noted that, although

    the amendment eliminated an opportunity for a milder sentence, it

    also placed a ceiling on the maximum available sentence, thus

    narrowing "the range of punishment to [the defendant's] benefit."


    27












    Id. at 1271. This potential benefit made an evaluation of the ___

    risk that the new law might subject the prisoner to harsher

    punishment too speculative to constitute an ex post facto

    violation. See id. ___ ___

    The Seventh Circuit's rationale is persuasive here.

    Due to the peculiar concatenation of circumstances especially

    the profound uncertainty over how the petitioner would have fared

    under the old system and the potential benefits that may accrue

    to him under the new regime the potential risk of more

    Draconian punishment under the 1977 policy defies reliable

    measurement. As a result, we hold that the application of the

    new policy to the petitioner did not insult the Ex Post Facto

    Clause.

    III. CONCLUSION III. CONCLUSION

    We need go no further. For the foregoing reasons, we

    reverse the district court's order and dismiss the application

    for a writ of habeas corpus.



    It is so ordered. It is so ordered. ________________



    Separate Opinion Follows



    STAHL, Circuit Judge (concurring in part and STAHL, Circuit Judge (concurring in part and _____________

    dissenting in part). I agree that the Commonwealth did not dissenting in part).

    violate Hamm's rights under the Due Process Clause when it

    failed to provide him a parole hearing in 1983. Unlike my


    28













    colleagues, however, I am persuaded that, as applied to Hamm

    and other similarly-situated prisoners, the 1977 aggregation

    policy is an unconstitutional ex post facto law. First, I

    believe that the 1977 aggregation policy, which effectively

    altered the date of Hamm's initial parole hearing, is a "law"

    subject to ex post facto limitations. Second, contrary to my

    colleagues, I believe that the 1977 policy, as applied to

    Hamm and other similarly-situated prisoners, clearly produces

    a risk of increasing the measure of punishment sufficient to

    violate the Ex Post Facto Clause. Hence, I respectfully

    dissent from parts II.B.-III.

    I. I.

    Article 1, 10 of the Constitution clearly

    proscribes the authority of a state to enact any ex post

    facto law. As the majority explains, it is long settled that

    the Clause forbids

    any statute which punishes as a crime an
    act previously committed, which was
    innocent when done; which makes more
    burdensome the punishment for a crime,
    after its commission, or which deprives
    one charged with crime of any defense
    available according to law at the time
    when the act was committed.

    Collins v. Youngblood, 497 U.S. 37, 42 (1990) (quoting _______ __________

    Beazell v. Ohio, 269 U.S. 167, 169-70 (1925)); see also _______ ____ ___ ____

    California Dep't of Corrections v. Morales, 115 S. Ct. 1597, _______________________________ _______

    1601 (1995) ("the Clause is aimed at laws that retroactively

    alter the definition of crimes or increase the punishment for


    -29- 29













    criminal acts") (internal quotation omitted). In general, an

    ex post facto inquiry requires a two-step analysis. See ___

    Miller v. Florida, 482 U.S. 423, 430 (1987). A court should ______ _______

    ask (1) whether the challenged provision is a "law" that acts

    retrospectively, and (2) whether the burden the law

    retrospectively imposes is of sufficient type and degree to

    violate the Constitution.

    In this case, Hamm argues that the 1977 aggregation

    policy violated the Ex Post Facto Clause by retroactively

    depriving him of opportunities to obtain his release earlier

    than November 2001. In response, the Commonwealth contends

    that the 1977 aggregation policy was not a "law" subject to

    ex post facto limitation, and that, in any event, the

    aggregation did not increase Hamm's punishment. My

    colleagues agree with the second contention, and therefore

    find it unnecessary to consider the first. Because, as I

    explain more fully infra at 35-43, I believe that the 1977 _____

    aggregation policy engendered a sufficient risk of increasing

    Hamm's punishment, I cannot avoid the first prong of the

    Commonwealth's argument. Accordingly, I proceed first to

    explore fully whether the 1977 aggregation policy is a "law"

    subject to ex post facto proscription, and, second, to

    discuss my disagreement with the majority over whether the







    -30- 30













    new policy produces a risk of increasing the measure of

    punishment sufficient to violate the Constitution.19

    A. Is the 1977 Aggregation Policy a "Law"? ___________________________________________

    I agree with the district court that the 1977

    aggregation policy was a "law" for purposes of ex post facto

    analysis. Although the aggregation policy was not formally

    promulgated as a regulation governing the Parole Board, it

    was as binding on the Parole Board, on a case-by-case basis,

    as an act passed by the legislature would have been.

    Moreover, the Commonwealth does not argue that, once the

    policy had been promulgated, the Parole Board had any

    discretion to deviate from the policy in any particular

    instance.

    The Supreme Court has not addressed the question of

    whether an administrative policy or regulation can be an ex

    post facto law. A number of circuit courts, however, have

    held that binding administrative regulations, as opposed to

    those that serve merely as guidelines for discretionary

    decisionmaking, are laws subject to ex post facto limitation.

    For example, in a case factually similar to this one, the

    Ninth Circuit held that the California Department of

    Corrections's recalculation of a prisoner's parole-

    eligibility date under its new interpretation of the

    ____________________

    19. I do not restate the facts or outline the prior
    proceedings. For a complete discussion of these matters, see
    Majority Opinion at 2-12. ________________

    -31- 31













    governing statutes violated the Ex Post Facto Clause because

    "the Department has changed its interpretation of the

    authority itself." Love v. Fitzharris, 460 F.2d 382, 385 ____ __________

    (9th Cir. 1972), vacated as moot, 409 U.S. 1100 (1973). The _______ __ ____

    Love court stated that: ____

    the interpretation of the relationship
    between the statutes . . . by the
    administrative agency charged with their
    enforcement has the force and effect of
    law. . . . [N]ot only defendants, in
    contemplating their pleas, but also trial
    courts, in imposing sentences, are
    entitled to rely on such administrative
    interpretations. . . . A new
    administrative interpretation which
    subjects the prisoner already sentenced
    to more severe punishment has the same
    effect as a new statute lengthening his
    present term . . . .

    Id. (citations omitted). The Eleventh Circuit similarly ___

    concluded that a regulation, promulgated pursuant to the

    Georgia parole board's delegated legislative power, that

    changed the period between inmate's parole hearings from one

    to eight years was a "law" subject to ex post facto

    limitation. Akins v. Snow, 922 F.2d 1558, 1561 (11th Cir.), _____ ____

    cert. denied, 501 U.S. 1260 (1991); see also Rodriguez v. _____ ______ ___ ____ _________

    United States Parole Comm'n, 594 F.2d 170, 174 (7th Cir. ___________________________

    1979) (new regulation eliminating parole hearing after one-

    third of sentence is "tantamount to a statute" for ex post

    facto purposes).

    In those cases holding that particular

    administrative regulations or guidelines were not laws ___


    -32- 32













    subject to the Ex Post Facto Clause, courts have often

    premised their holdings, at least in part, on the advisory

    nature of the regulation or guidelines in question. See, ___

    e.g., Kelly v. Southerland, 967 F.2d 1531, 1532-33 (11th Cir. ____ _____ ___________

    1992) (rescission guidelines promulgated by federal Parole

    Commission did not violate Ex Post Facto Clause because they

    both were subject to amendment by the Commission and merely

    guided, but did not dictate, actual parole decisions); Smith _____

    v. United States Parole Comm'n, 875 F.2d 1361, 1367 (9th Cir. ___________________________

    1988) (finding parole "regulation" was not an ex post facto

    law and noting that "the operative factor in assessing

    whether a directive constitutes a ``law' for ex post facto

    purposes is the discretion that the Parole Commission retains

    to modify that directive or to ignore it altogether as the

    circumstances may require"); Inglese v. United States Parole _______ ____________________

    Comm'n, 768 F.2d 932, 936 (7th Cir. 1985) ("The power to ______

    exercise discretion indicates that the [parole] guidelines

    are merely guides, and not law: guides may be discarded when

    circumstances require; laws may not."). Moreover, these

    cases involve the federal Parole Commission's guidelines,

    which are "truly advisory" because the Commission possesses

    the authority to disregard them in the appropriate

    circumstances. Bailey v. Gardebring, 940 F.2d 1150, 1158 ______ __________

    (8th Cir. 1991) (Lay, C.J., dissenting), cert. denied, 112 S. _____ ______

    Ct. 1516 (1992). The Commonwealth makes no claim that its



    -33- 33













    aggregation policy was merely "advisory" or that it was free

    to disregard the policy in a particular case.

    The Commonwealth does postulate, however, that

    because it had discretion to adopt the 1977 aggregation

    policy in the first place and to modify the policy

    subsequently, as it did in 1988, the policy should not be

    considered a law. Although a number of the federal Parole

    Commission cases have relied in part on this reasoning,20

    see, e.g., Smith, 875 F.2d at 1367, I would reject it here. ___ ____ _____

    The argument not only exalts form over substance but its

    logic suggests that even legislative acts, because they too

    may be modified, should be immune to challenge under the Ex

    Post Facto Clause. See Bailey, 940 F.2d at 1158 (Lay, C.J., ___ ______

    dissenting). A binding policy or regulation, promulgated

    pursuant to delegated legislative authority by an

    administrative body that implicitly retains authority to

    amend it in the future, is no different in its force and

    effect than a law passed by a legislature that retains

    authority to amend or revoke that law. The Commonwealth's

    ____________________

    20. The Commonwealth claims that the Eighth Circuit adopted
    this reasoning in Bailey, which held that a change in ______
    Minnesota parole board regulations abolishing annual review
    of prospective release dates and limiting the board's
    discretion in changing such dates did not constitute a law
    for ex post facto purposes, even though the board lacked
    discretion to disregard its regulations in any given case.
    However, the relevant section of Bailey, 940 F.2d at 1156, ______
    drew the concurrence of a second panel member as to the
    result only, and not its reasoning, id. at 1157 (Stuart, J., ___
    concurring).

    -34- 34













    Parole Board possessed delegated legislative authority to

    promulgate the aggregation policy: "The parole board shall .

    . . make rules relative to the performance of its duties."

    Mass. Gen. L. ch. 27, 5(e). Furthermore, under

    Massachusetts law, an agency regulation21 "promulgated

    pursuant to a legislative grant of power generally [has] the

    force of law." Kenney v. Commissioner of Correction, 468 ______ __________________________

    N.E.2d 616, 619 (Mass. 1984). Thus, because the 1977

    aggregation policy was effectively a regulation having the

    full force and effect of law, I would hold that it is subject

    to limitation under the Ex Post Facto Clause.
















    ____________________

    21. That the 1977 policy was not formally deemed a
    "regulation" also does not seem to matter: Under
    Massachusetts law, a "regulation"

    includes the whole or any part of every _____
    rule, regulation, standard or other ____ __________ ________ __ _____
    requirement of general application and ___________ __ _______ ___________ ___
    future effect . . . adopted by an agency ______ ______
    to implement or interpret the law
    enforced or administered by it.

    Mass. Gen. L. ch. 30A, 1(5) (emphasis added).

    -35- 35













    B. Does the 1977 Aggregation Policy Produce a Sufficient _________________________________________________________

    Risk of Increasing the Measure of Punishment? _____________________________________________

    I now turn to the issue at the heart of my

    disagreement with the majority: Whether, as applied to Hamm

    and other similarly-situated prisoners, the 1977 aggregation

    policy produces a risk of increased punishment sufficient to

    violate the Ex Post Facto Clause? My colleagues answer this

    question in the negative, basing their conclusion on two

    premises. First they deem it highly unlikely that, under the

    prior policy, Hamm would have won early parole from his life

    sentence and acquired the necessary good-time credits to

    advance the date of his ultimate parole hearing to a point

    earlier than 2001. Hence, they conclude that any harm to

    Hamm ensuing from the 1977 aggregation policy is highly

    speculative. Second, they posit that, due to structural

    differences between the two policies, a "real" benefit

    accrues to Hamm under the new policy. Then, combining these

    two premises, my colleagues ultimately conclude that, on

    balance, the 1977 aggregation policy does not violate the Ex

    Post Facto Clause. I strongly disagree.

    My colleagues favorably compare the risk of

    increased punishment occasioned by the 1977 aggregation

    policy with the risk of increased punishment recently

    examined by the Supreme Court in California Dep't of ___________________

    Corrections v. Morales, 115 S. Ct. 1597 (1995). In Morales, ___________ _______ _______



    -36- 36













    the Court considered an amendment permitting the California

    state parole board to defer annual parole-suitability

    hearings for up to three years for prisoners at least twice

    convicted of murder. Id. at 1600. In upholding the ___

    amendment, the Court rejected the contention that it violated

    the Ex Post Facto Clause simply because the deferral of

    subsequent suitability hearings deprived affected prisoners

    of an opportunity to gain an earlier release from prison.

    Id. at 1602 n.3. The Court explained that just because the ___

    amendment caused the loss of some theoretical opportunity to

    gain an earlier release did not mean that it necessarily

    violates the Constitution. Id. Instead, the Court held ___

    that, for ex post facto purposes, the test is whether the

    loss of that opportunity actually produces a "sufficient risk

    of increasing the measure of punishment for the attached

    crimes." Id. at 1603. ___

    In applying this test, the Court focused on several

    factors that significantly minimized the California

    amendment's risk of harm. Morales, 115 S. Ct. at 1603-05. _______

    First, the Court noted the amendment's limited application.

    Id. at 1603. The amendment had no effect on any prisoner ___

    unless the California parole board first found that the

    prisoner was both unsuitable for parole and unlikely to be

    found suitable at subsequent hearings during the deferral

    period. Id. at 1604. Moreover, the Court noted that the ___



    -37- 37













    amendment did not affect "the date of any prisoner's initial

    parole suitability hearing: it affected the timing only of

    subsequent hearings." Id. at 1605. ___

    Next, the Court observed, inter alia, that, even _____ ____

    with respect to a prisoner who might have actually received a

    favorable recommendation at an omitted hearing, the practical

    effect of the amendment on that prisoner's ultimate release

    date was only slight. Morales, 115 S. Ct. 1605. At the _______

    deferred hearings, the parole board determined only a

    prisoner's "suitability" for parole but did not set actual

    parole dates. Id. The Court noted that, significantly, in ___

    many cases, an actual parole date comes several years after a

    finding of suitability. Id. Moreover, under California law, ___

    evidence that a prisoner in fact had been "suitable" for a

    year or two prior to the date of the prisoner's delayed

    hearing would be relevant in setting the prisoner's actual

    parole date. Id. Hence, the Court concluded that, in most ___

    cases, any delay resulting from the amendment could be

    corrected by the parole board when it set the prisoner's

    ultimate release date. Id. ___

    In short, the Court recognized that the

    amendment's built-in limitations, severely restricting both

    its application and potential effect, effectively minimized

    any risk of increased punishment caused by the elimination of

    subsequent suitability hearings. Furthermore, the Court



    -38- 38













    carefully limited the breadth of its holding, expressly

    disavowing any opinion "as to the constitutionality of any of

    a number of statutes that might alter the timing of parole

    hearings under circumstances different from those present

    here." Morales, 115 S. Ct. at 1603 n.6. _______

    On close analysis, I believe the effect of the 1977

    aggregation policy challenged here differs significantly from

    the risk of increased harm produced by the Morales amendment. _______

    First, in contrast to the Morales amendment, the adoption of _______

    the 1977 aggregation policy potentially affects all

    Massachusetts prisoners previously eligible for parole from a

    life sentence into consecutive from-and-after sentences. No

    provision in the policy limits the class of affected

    prisoners to only those adjudged by the Commonwealth's Parole

    Board (or some similar body) to be unlikely to win early

    parole or to earn significant good-time credits. Moreover,

    where the Morales amendment affected only subsequent _______

    hearings, the 1977 aggregation policy essentially delays an

    affected prisoner's initial parole hearing.

    Second, also in contrast to Morales, the impact of _______

    the 1977 aggregation policy on those it affects is

    substantial. For example, under the prior policy, Hamm could

    have terminated his incarceration as early as 1995, through

    the acquisition of earned and statutory good-time credits and





    -39- 39













    the application of his jail credits.22 The 1977

    aggregation policy extinguished that possibility; Hamm's term

    of incarceration cannot end under the 1977 policy before his

    first-available parole hearing in 2001. Thus, in contrast to

    the amendment in Morales, which will have little, if any, _______

    real impact on an affected prisoner's actual time in prison,

    the 1977 aggregation policy could potentially increase Hamm's

    prison term by up to six years. See Weaver v. Graham, 450 ___ ______ ______

    U.S. 24, 26-27, 31-34 (1981) (holding that new state statute

    reducing amount of good time that could be earned

    prospectively by current inmates violates Ex Post Facto

    Clause because it removed existing opportunity for shortened

    prison time).

    My colleagues gloss over these clear distinctions

    by positing that, whatever the risk might have been at the

    outset, given the brutal nature of Hamm's crime and his poor

    record as a prisoner, it is highly unlikely that Hamm could

    have availed himself of the opportunity to obtain an earlier

    release. Such analysis, however, is more akin to a harmless

    error inquiry focusing on the particulars of Hamm's case than

    to a proper ex post facto inquiry into whether the new law

    ____________________

    22. As does the majority, I assume the accuracy of Hamm's
    claim of entitlement to 840 days of jail credit. See ___
    Majority at 8. I note, however, that the claim is not ________
    critical to my analysis. Even without the 840 days, the 1977
    aggregation policy deprives Hamm of the opportunity to
    advance his initial ultimate parole date by over three and
    half years.

    -40- 40













    posed a sufficient risk of increasing the measure of

    punishment. Moreover, while it is clear that Hamm bears the

    ultimate burden of establishing that the new law changes the

    measure of punishment, Morales, 115 at 1603 n.6, this does _______

    not mean that he must necessarily show "that he would have

    been sentenced to a lesser term under the measure or range of

    punishments in place under the previous statutory scheme."

    Id. (citing Lindsey v. Washington, 301 U.S. 397, 401 (1937)); ___ _______ __________

    see also id. at 1607 (Stevens, Souter, J.J., dissenting); ___ ____ ___

    Miller v. Florida, 482 U.S. 423, 432 (1987) (reaffirming ______ _______

    Lindsey). Indeed, the proper "inquiry looks to the _______

    challenged provision, and not to any special circumstances

    that may mitigate its effect on the particular individual."

    Weaver, 450 U.S. at 33. ______

    In any event, the fact of the matter is that the

    1977 aggregation policy completely deprived Hamm of his once-

    existing opportunity to gain a release from prison as much as

    six years earlier than he can now. Moreover, notwithstanding

    my colleagues' post hoc evaluation of Hamm's chances, because ____ ___

    Hamm never received a parole hearing, no findings exist to

    inform us whether or not the Commonwealth would have found

    Hamm to be a likely candidate for early parole from his life

    sentence. Indeed, without such findings or even knowledge

    concerning the standards and policies that guide the

    Commonwealth's Parole Board in making such recommendations,



    -41- 41













    this court can only speculate as to whether the 1977 ____ _____

    aggregation policy posed a sufficient risk to Hamm.23

    In Morales, the Court reasoned that the delay in _______

    parole suitability hearings caused by the challenged

    amendment did not produce a sufficient risk of punishment

    because, in major part, the amendment affected only a

    carefully limited class of prisoners, and the impact of any

    delay on an affected prisoner's actual time in prison was

    negligible. Implicit in the Court's holding, however, is the

    recognition that delay in a parole hearing produces some ____

    possibility of an increase in punishment. Where, as here,

    the delay is not predicated on a finding that the prisoner is

    an unlikely candidate for parole, and the delay may

    significantly increase the prisoner's sentence, I believe,

    even in Hamm's case, such delay produces a "sufficient risk

    of increasing the measure of punishment." Morales, 115 at _______

    1603.

    As noted, my colleagues also base their conclusion

    on the premise that the 1977 aggregation policy arguably

    provides a "real" benefit to Hamm and other affected

    prisoners. I believe, however, that it is this putative

    "benefit" that is too "speculative" to merit significant

    ____________________

    23. The fact that the record lacks the opinion, much less
    the findings, of the Commonwealth's Parole Board on Hamm's
    suitability for early parole clearly underscores the
    inappropriateness of my colleagues' "harmless error" style
    review.

    -42- 42













    weight in the ex post facto inquiry. Any fair analysis

    reveals that the supposed benefit arising from the 1977

    aggregation policy assumes several rather contradictory

    predicates. For example, to find that Hamm would benefit

    from the 1977 policy, I would need to assume both (1) that,

    under the prior policy, the Commonwealth's Parole Board would

    have refused to grant Hamm parole from his life sentence at

    least three times (in 1983, 1986, and 1989), or that, if the

    board did grant him such initial parole, he would have

    subsequently failed to accrue good-time credits, and (2) ___

    that, under the new policy, the Parole Board would then grant

    him "real" parole into society at large in 2001

    (notwithstanding that the board would not even have granted

    Hamm parole from his life sentence into his lengthy from-and-

    after sentences on at least three prior occasions). In other

    words, the Parole Board would have to deny Hamm's request for

    parole from one lengthy sentence into another at least three

    times, but then, a short time later, be willing essentially

    to grant Hamm a complete release from prison. The inherent

    contradiction in such assumptions discloses the difficulty of

    quantifying such a "benefit," or even determining whether one

    genuinely exists. Thus, I believe that any benefit

    engendered by the 1977 aggregation policy is much too







    -43- 43













    speculative to serve as an effective counterweight to its

    real risk of harm.24

    II. II.

    In sum, I believe that the 1977 aggregation policy

    is a "law" subject to ex post facto limitation, and that the

    policy produces a risk of increasing the measure of

    punishment sufficient to violate the Ex Post Facto Clause of

    the Constitution. Accordingly, I dissent from parts II.B.-

    III.











    ____________________

    24. My colleagues find further support in the Seventh
    Circuit's recent decision in United States v. McGee, 60 F.3d _____________ _____
    1266, 1271 (7th Cir. 1995). In McGee, the Seventh Circuit _____
    rejected an ex post facto challenge to a sentencing provision
    that substituted a mandatory range of 21 to 24 months in
    place of an open-ended 12 month minimum sentence for the
    offense of conviction. Id. I find the analogy inapt because ___
    in McGee the district court had actually sentenced the _____
    defendant to the maximum 24 months under the new sentencing
    range prior to the Seventh Circuit's review. Thus, the
    Seventh Court could fairly quantify both the benefit and the
    harm produced by the new sentencing range. Significantly,
    the fact that the district court had sentenced the defendant
    to the maximum possible under the new sentencing scheme
    clearly suggested that, if anything, it would have given the
    defendant a higher, not lesser, sentence under the old
    scheme. In our case, however, Hamm received no analogous
    treatment. He received no parole hearing. Thus, instead of
    fairly quantifying the risk as the McGee court did, we can _____
    only speculate as to the effect the 1977 aggregation policy
    will ultimately have on his sentence.

    -44- 44