United States v. Morales-Sanabria ( 2011 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 09-2298
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Appellee,
    v.
    FELIX MORALES SANABRIA, a/k/a El Chapo,
    Defendant, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF PUERTO RICO
    [Hon. Francisco A. Besosa, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Lynch, Chief Judge,
    Lipez and Howard, Circuit Judges.
    Rafael F. Castro Lang for appellant.
    Timothy R. Henwood, Assistant United States Attorney, with
    whom Rosa Emilia Rodriguez-Velez, United States Attorney, Nelson
    Pérez-Sosa, Assistant United States Attorney, Chief, Appellate
    Division, and Thomas F. Klumper, Assistant United States Attorney,
    were on brief, for appellee.
    July 11, 2011
    LIPEZ,     Circuit    Judge.         Felix    Morales    Sanabria
    ("Morales"), a commercial fisherman who goes by the nickname "El
    Chapo," was convicted on multiple drug trafficking counts following
    a jury trial and sentenced to fifty years' imprisonment.                   The
    conviction related to three separate shipments of drugs, two of
    cocaine and a third of cocaine, heroin, and ecstasy, brought by
    boat from the Dominican Republic into Puerto Rico between November
    2006 and April 2007.         At trial, the government's case against
    Morales   rested    almost   exclusively   on    the    testimony   of   three
    cooperating witnesses, two of whom identified Morales as the
    individual who facilitated the delivery of the drugs from boat to
    shore in Puerto Rico.
    Appealing his conviction and sentence, Morales seeks a
    new trial on two grounds.         First, he contends that the trial
    judge's exclusion of some members of his family from the courtroom
    during jury selection violated his Sixth Amendment right to a
    public trial.      Second, he claims multiple errors in the admission
    and exclusion of certain testimony at trial, the cumulative effect
    of which denied him a fair trial and undermined the trustworthiness
    of the verdict.       Alternatively, Morales requests a remand for
    resentencing in light of several claimed errors in the calculation
    of his sentence.
    We agree with Morales that he is entitled to a new trial
    due to the cumulative effect of several erroneous evidentiary
    -2-
    rulings.     Therefore, we do not address the merits of his other
    arguments.
    I.
    A.   Factual Background1
    The charges against Morales arose from a trafficking
    scheme that involved the shipment of illegal drugs by boat from the
    Dominican Republic to Puerto Rico.2    Juan Pagán Santiago ("Pagán")
    oversaw the Puerto Rican side of the operation, with substantial
    assistance from Freddie Santana Martínez ("Santana"). Prior to the
    events of this case, Pagán and Santana collaborated on over thirty
    shipments of drugs into Puerto Rico.
    The three shipments at issue here were arranged through
    Santana's Dominican Republic contacts, who hired their own boat and
    captain to deliver the drugs to Puerto Rico.    On each of the three
    occasions, a boat left the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo
    with the shipment of drugs and was met halfway by a boat from
    Puerto Rico, which took possession of the shipment and brought it
    back to the Aguadilla region of Puerto Rico.          The Dominican
    suppliers provided Santana with a contact number for the individual
    who would be delivering the drugs to Aguadilla, known to Santana
    1
    We derive the following factual account from the trial
    transcript, reciting the facts "as the jury could have found them."
    United States v. Ayala-García, 
    574 F.3d 5
    , 8 (1st Cir. 2009).
    2
    The bulk of the drugs was distributed within Puerto Rico,
    with some portion repackaged and smuggled into the continental
    United States.
    -3-
    only as "El Chapo."    Though he talked with El Chapo on the phone,
    Santana testified at trial that he never met El Chapo face-to-face.
    The first of the three shipments took place in November
    2006.     To retrieve the drugs from the drop-off in Aguadilla,
    Santana enlisted the help of Domingo Ureña Del Villar ("Ureña"), a
    good friend with whom Santana had grown up in the Dominican
    Republic.     The day before the shipment was to arrive, Santana
    dispatched Ureña to the Aguadilla area with instructions to call El
    Chapo once he was close.    Ureña drove to the town of Mayagüez and
    called El Chapo, who instructed him to stay where he was.   Shortly
    thereafter, a white Mitsubishi Montero pulled in front of Ureña and
    the driver signaled with his hand for Ureña to follow.         They
    proceeded to a vehicle accessory shop, where El Chapo got out of
    the Montero and told Ureña that he would take Ureña to the spot
    where they were to meet the following day for the drug pick-up as
    soon as he had picked up new luxury rims for his tires.   At trial,
    Ureña identified the man who got out of the vehicle, and whom he
    knew as El Chapo, to be defendant Morales.   Ureña followed El Chapo
    to a Wendy's restaurant in Aguadilla, which El Chapo indicated to
    be their rendezvous spot.    They thereafter parted ways, with Ureña
    retiring to a local hotel for the evening.
    The next morning, Ureña proceeded to the Wendy's, where
    another man appeared in the white Montero and instructed Ureña to
    follow.     Ureña followed the Montero to a house construction site
    -4-
    along a beach in Aguadilla, where he encountered El Chapo and six
    other men.       El Chapo oversaw the men as they loaded the drugs,
    which were packaged in a cooler and two plastic drums, into Ureña's
    vehicle.    The containers housed some ninety kilograms of cocaine,
    with El Chapo having already removed an additional twenty kilograms
    or so of cocaine as payment prior to delivery.3         Ureña met up with
    Santana and Pagán just off of the expressway outside of Aguadilla
    and followed them to a house owned by Pagán near the town of Lajas,
    where they counted and prepared the drugs for further distribution.
    When the second shipment arrived in January 2007, Ureña
    was again assigned to retrieve it.          Accompanying Ureña this time
    was Joel Gómez Diaz ("Gómez"), a friend who had grown up with
    Santana    and   Ureña   in   the   Dominican   Republic.   The   delivery
    otherwise proceeded in much the same fashion as the previous one:
    Ureña and Gómez met El Chapo at the Wendy's in Aguadilla the day
    before the shipment, El Chapo called Ureña the next day with the
    precise pick-up location, and Ureña and Gómez proceeded to a wooded
    3
    The actual amount of drugs delivered in the first shipment
    is the subject of conflicting testimony. Santana testified that
    the shipment contained between 110 and 115 kilograms of cocaine,
    with 90 going to Santana and Pagán and the remainder taken by El
    Chapo.    Ureña's initial testimony at trial was consistent,
    confirming that the first shipment contained 90 kilograms after El
    Chapo had taken his share.      However, Ureña later stated that
    Santana and Pagán tallied the shipment (after El Chapo had
    extracted his portion) to amount to 115 kilograms of cocaine, 95 of
    which they delivered to a third party, leaving Santana and Pagán
    with the remaining 20 kilograms. The precise quantity of cocaine
    delivered is of no importance to our decision here.
    -5-
    area of the beach in Aguadilla where El Chapo and five or six other
    men loaded plastic drums filled with cocaine into their vehicle.
    Gómez, like Ureña, later testified that the El Chapo he interacted
    with in the course of the delivery was defendant Morales. From the
    beach, the drugs, totaling ninety kilograms of cocaine, were taken
    to Pagán's Lajas house to be counted and processed.4
    Some time after the second shipment, Ureña and Gómez
    again    drove   to   Aguadilla   to   meet   with    El   Chapo   and   provide
    coordinates for picking up the next shipment of drugs.5                       The
    meeting    was   observed   and    photographed       by   a   number    of   law
    enforcement agents, as federal and commonwealth law enforcement
    authorities had placed Ureña under surveillance in furtherance of
    a joint drug trafficking investigation.              El Chapo arrived at the
    Aguadilla Wendy's in a black Chevrolet TrailBlazer with luxury
    rims.     Ureña entered the TrailBlazer and stayed there for around
    twenty minutes.       While surveillance captured Ureña entering the
    TrailBlazer, no pictures were taken of El Chapo.               A check of the
    license plate on the TrailBlazer indicated that it was registered
    4
    Again, the total shipment included around 110 kilograms of
    cocaine, of which El Chapo retained roughly 20 kilograms as
    payment.
    5
    Ureña testified that        the meeting took place fifteen days
    after the second shipment,         which would place it in January or
    February of 2007.     This        account was contradicted by a law
    enforcement witness present       at the meeting, who testified that it
    took place on April 10.
    -6-
    to Francisco Rosario Cordero ("Rosario"), Morales's former brother-
    in-law.
    The third and final shipment occurred in late April,
    2007.       On April 26, Ureña and Gómez met El Chapo at the Aguadilla
    Wendy's, where El Chapo got out of his vehicle and talked with
    Ureña about plans for the pickup.            El Chapo called Ureña and Gómez
    the next afternoon, April 27, and instructed the pair to meet him
    at    the    same   location   at   which    the   second   shipment   had   been
    delivered.       This third shipment included around 100 kilograms of
    cocaine, four packages of heroin, and 26,000 ecstasy pills.                  After
    the drugs had been loaded into their car by El Chapo's crew, Ureña
    and Gómez drove the shipment to a house owned by Pagán in Cidra,
    Puerto Rico.
    On April 28, Santana and Ureña were pulled over by the
    police while en route to deliver part of the third shipment.                   At
    the time of the stop, the vehicle contained seventy-seven kilograms
    of cocaine and all four packages of heroin.             The drugs were seized
    and    both were arrested on the spot.         Fifteen months later, in July
    2008, Pagán, Gómez, Morales, and two others were indicted by a
    federal grand jury on multiple drug-trafficking-related charges.6
    6
    Gómez and Morales were promptly arrested after the
    indictment issued, but Pagán remained at large until his arrest in
    October 2009, after Morales had been tried and sentenced.
    -7-
    B.    The Trial
    The indictment in this case sets forth five separate
    charges against Morales. These include: (1) conspiracy with intent
    to distribute cocaine, heroin, and ecstasy, in violation of 
    21 U.S.C. §§ 841
     and 846; (2) conspiracy to import into the Customs
    Territory of the United States five or more kilograms of cocaine
    and one kilogram or more of heroin, in violation of                    
    21 U.S.C. §§ 952
     and 963; (3) possession with intent to distribute five or
    more kilograms of cocaine, in violation of 
    21 U.S.C. § 841
    ; (4)
    possession with intent to distribute one kilogram or more of
    heroin, in violation of 
    21 U.S.C. § 841
    ; and (5) a forfeiture count
    under 
    21 U.S.C. §§ 853
     and 881.
    At    trial,     the    prosecution's       case   against    Morales
    proceeded   almost       exclusively      on    the   testimony   of   the   three
    cooperating witnesses, Santana, Ureña, and Gómez.                      The three
    testified in detail regarding the drug shipments and El Chapo's
    role in delivering the drugs to shore, and, as noted above, Ureña
    and Gómez positively identified Morales to be El Chapo.                         The
    government took care to have each witness explain that he had been
    charged with and pled guilty to drug trafficking charges; that he
    had not been sentenced at the time of his testimony; and that he
    had   entered     into   a   Plea   and    Cooperation    Agreement      with   the
    government, under which he agreed to provide truthful testimony in
    exchange for a recommendation of a reduced sentence.
    -8-
    Morales's   counsel,     Fernando     Carlo-Gorbea       ("Carlo"),
    attempted to undermine the testimony of the cooperating witnesses
    on cross-examination.         He elicited testimony that the three had
    grown up together and been friends in Santo Domingo, and that they
    had seen each other and spoken in prison prior to testifying at
    trial.    Carlo also attempted to impeach Santana's testimony at
    trial by highlighting its inconsistencies with a statement Santana
    had given investigating officers immediately following his arrest.
    Faced with Santana's resistance to this effort, Carlo attempted to
    enter    the     inconsistent   statement     into       evidence    through   the
    testimony of one of the interviewing officers.                      As we discuss
    below, the trial judge precluded that effort as an improper offer
    of extrinsic evidence on a collateral matter.
    The government put on five additional witnesses, of whom
    three warrant mention here. The first was Jose Ramon Perez-Rivera,
    a police officer who participated in surveillance of Ureña's April
    10 meeting at the Aguadilla Wendy's.             Perez-Rivera testified that
    he and three other agents were present at the meeting, each in his
    own vehicle, to observe and take photographs.                   After the fact,
    Perez-Rivera      ran   the   license    plate     for    the   black   Chevrolet
    TrailBlazer that had rendezvoused with Ureña, determining that it
    was registered to Francisco Rosario-Cordero.
    Second, Rosario testified that he had loaned his black
    Chevrolet TrailBlazer to Morales, his former brother-in-law, for
    -9-
    around a month and a half in March and April 2007.              Rosario also
    confirmed that Morales went by the nickname "Chapo."               On cross-
    examination, attorney Carlo tried to elicit testimony that, in a
    previous interview, Rosario had told Carlo that law enforcement
    agents had intimidated and threatened him and his wife to get
    Rosario to testify that Morales had used the TrailBlazer and had
    been   involved   in    drug   trafficking.      The   court    sustained    an
    objection to the line of questioning, ruling that it was outside
    the scope of the direct examination.
    Third,      the   government   put   on   Ivelisse   Muñoz-Nieves
    ("Muñoz"), who testified that she was dating Morales, whom she knew
    as Chapo, at the time of his arrest in July 2008.           Muñoz testified
    that Morales told her that the authorities had confused him with
    someone else.       Upon being asked whether she believed him, she
    stated, over attorney Carlo's objection, that she did not.                  She
    also testified that Morales had told her "[t]hat at a given point
    in time in his life he may not have been a saint, but that he had
    done his things, but at the time that they took him away, he was,
    you know -- he had settled down."         This testimony prompted Carlo to
    move for a mistrial on the grounds that Muñoz's testimony was
    "highly prejudicial" evidence of prior bad acts in violation of
    Rule 404 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.             The court denied the
    motion.
    -10-
    Following completion of the prosecution's case, the court
    addressed the government's motion to exclude the testimony of the
    sole defense witness, Special Agent Luis Ortiz.             As noted above,
    Carlo intended to offer the testimony of Ortiz, the agent who had
    conducted the initial interview of Santana, for the purpose of
    impeaching Santana's trial testimony. Agreeing with the government
    that this testimony constituted impermissible extrinsic evidence of
    a collateral matter, the court granted the motion to exclude.
    The jury found Morales guilty of all charges and assessed
    a $420,000 judgment against him on the forfeiture count.                At a
    sentencing hearing three months later, the court sentenced Morales
    to   fifty    years'   imprisonment    on   each   count,    to   be   served
    concurrently, followed by five years' supervised release.
    This timely appeal followed.
    II.
    Morales makes six discrete claims of error in the judge's
    conduct of the trial, which, he contends, taken together justify a
    new trial under the cumulative error doctrine.7         See United States
    v. Sepúlveda, 
    15 F.3d 1161
    , 1195-96 (1st Cir. 1993).              While we do
    7
    Because we resolve that Morales is entitled to a new trial
    in light of these trial errors, we reach neither the claim that his
    right to a public trial was violated by the exclusion of some
    family members during jury selection nor Morales's sentencing
    arguments.
    -11-
    not find merit in all of Morales's claims of error,8 we agree that
    the   trial    judge   abused   his   discretion   in   three   significant
    evidentiary rulings.
    A.    Exclusion of Testimony by Agent Ortiz
    On April 30, 2007, two days after his arrest, Santana
    submitted to an interview as a cooperating witness with Special
    Agents Luis Ortiz and Alek Pacheco of the United States Immigration
    and Customs Enforcement.         As reflected in an interview report
    prepared by Agent Ortiz,9 Santana provided a detailed account of
    the April 2007 shipment of drugs from the Dominican Republic.
    Santana explained, among other things:
    That [an individual known as] "El Chapo" was
    the person in charge of introducing and
    deliver[ing] the narcotics to him/her.    The
    cooperating defendant described "El Chapo" as
    a white, short, skinny male with multiple
    tattoos on his arms, approximately 25 years
    old.   The cooperating defendant also stated
    that "El Chapo" owns approximately three
    fishing boats and that the boats are located
    in the western coast of Puerto Rico.
    8
    Three of the six issues Morales cites do not rise to the
    level of an abuse of discretion and accordingly are not discussed
    here.    Those claims targeted the judge's denial of pretrial
    continuances, interference with the cross-examination of Ureña, and
    failure to take steps to limit or mitigate Muñoz's testimony that
    Morales had told her "[t]hat at a given point in time in his life
    he may not have been a saint."
    9
    The report, though never admitted into evidence at trial,
    was marked as an exhibit by the district court and included in the
    record on appeal.
    -12-
    By contrast, the appellant Morales is described in the presentence
    investigation report as "Black/Hispanic."
    At trial, Santana admitted that he had submitted to an
    interview with agents Ortiz and Pacheco, but denied having given a
    description of El Chapo.    Pressed by defense counsel, Santana said
    that he had once asked Ureña about the appearance of "the people
    who pick up the drugs," and Ureña "told [him] that they were more
    or less light-skinned and with tat[t]oos."          Nonetheless, Santana
    repeatedly denied ever having given the authorities a description
    of El Chapo or any other specific individual.         Upon completion of
    the government's case, attorney Carlo sought to have Agent Ortiz
    testify as to the contents of his April 30 interview with Santana.
    The government moved to exclude the testimony under the collateral
    issue rule, citing United States v. Cruz-Rodriguez, 
    541 F.3d 19
    ,
    29-30 (1st Cir. 2008).       Granting the motion, the trial judge
    explained to Carlo, "if you want to present this evidence either to
    impeach Mr. Santana or to contradict his testimony, that falls into
    the collateral [issue rule], and that's not enough."
    On appeal, the government concedes error in the trial
    judge's exclusion of Agent Ortiz's testimony.               We accept the
    government's   concession   and   thus   do   not   reach   the   merits   of
    Morales's arguments on this point.       The government does, however,
    contend that the exclusion was harmless error, an argument that we
    address further below.
    -13-
    B.   Limitation of Rosario Cross-Examination
    According to attorney Carlo's representations to the
    court, Rosario came to Carlo's office and met with him at some
    point     prior   to    trial,   along   with   his    co-counsel   and    other
    individuals,      and    described   a   pattern      of   harassment    by   law
    enforcement officials.       Rosario allegedly told Carlo that when the
    authorities first contacted him about the investigation, he had
    refused to implicate Morales in anything illegal, and had told them
    that Morales never used the black Chevrolet TrailBlazer registered
    to Rosario.       The investigating officers allegedly "wanted him to
    testify that Chapo was involved in drug dealing."                       To apply
    pressure, "they went to his place of business, they got him out of
    there, they went to his house, they stopped [his wife] in the
    highway," and they threatened them both.
    At trial, attorney Carlo unsuccessfully tried to cross-
    examine Rosario concerning these allegations of intimidation.                 The
    government objected at the outset of the questioning and called for
    a sidebar,10 whereupon the trial judge asked attorney Carlo to
    explain the direction of his inquiry.           Carlo stated that he wanted
    "to ask [Rosario] that he told me that he was threatened by the
    10
    Though the government articulated no clear basis in
    objecting, the grounds for its objection appear to have been
    relevance and possible confusion of the issues. Specifically, the
    government attorney stated, "I object . . . for the reason that
    this is a -- what he's intending to elicit has something to do with
    another investigation not the case we're here on today."
    -14-
    agents that if he didn't tell them what they wanted to hear, they
    would take him to arrest him together with [his wife]."              Attorney
    Carlo argued that cross-examination on the alleged intimidation was
    permissible for purposes of impeachment. Among other things, Carlo
    said he wanted to elicit the contradiction between Rosario's
    in-court testimony that Morales had used the Trailblazer and his
    statement to counsel that he had told the government that Morales
    had not used the Trailblazer.      The attorney wanted, apparently, to
    elicit   the    different   statements    and   imply   that   the   in-court
    statement was a change brought about by government intimidation.
    The trial judge ruled, however, that because Rosario had not
    testified on direct examination concerning his meetings with law
    enforcement and whether he had been intimidated, the attorney's
    proposed line of questions was outside the scope of the direct
    examination and thus barred. The judge further ruled that it would
    be   improper   to   impeach   Rosario   with   his   prior    statements to
    attorney Carlo because those statements had not been made under
    oath.
    On appeal, the government does not attempt to justify the
    limitation on cross-examination by reference to either ground
    proffered by the trial judge.       Indeed, neither is correct.        There
    is no requirement that prior statements offered for impeachment
    purposes have been made under oath.        To the contrary, such "prior
    statements may have been oral and unsworn . . . ."             United States
    -15-
    v. Sisto, 
    534 F.2d 616
    , 622 (5th Cir. 1976).     Moreover, as attorney
    Carlo attempted here, "'the making of the previous statements may
    be drawn out in cross-examination of the witness himself . . . .'"
    
    Id.
     (quoting 1 Edward W. Cleary, McCormick on Evidence § 34 (2d ed.
    1972)).
    With regard to the other ground cited by the trial judge,
    circumstances tending to show probable witness bias or motive for
    fabrication, including threats and intimidation by one of the
    parties, are properly subject to cross-examination for purposes of
    impeachment, whether or not the matter is broached in the course of
    direct examination. See, e.g., United States v. Thompson, 
    359 F.3d 470
    , 473–480 (7th Cir. 2004) (upholding district court ruling
    permitting government to cross-examine defense witness regarding
    occasions on which defendant had threatened her); Udemba v. Nicoli,
    
    237 F.3d 8
    , 17 (1st Cir. 2001) (noting that matters involving bias,
    including fear of one of the parties, are "fertile territory for
    cross-examination").    Indeed,   failure   to    allow   such   cross-
    examination may, in some circumstances, amount to a violation of
    the Confrontation Clause.    The Supreme Court has held that "a
    criminal defendant states a violation of the Confrontation Clause
    by showing that he was prohibited from engaging in otherwise
    appropriate cross-examination designed to show a prototypical form
    of bias on the part of the witness, and thereby 'to expose to the
    jury the facts from which jurors . . . could appropriately draw
    -16-
    inferences relating to the reliability of the witness.'"       Delaware
    v. Van Arsdall, 
    475 U.S. 673
    , 680 (1986) (alteration in original)
    (quoting Davis v. Alaska, 
    415 U.S. 308
    , 318 (1974)).
    To be sure, "trial judges retain wide latitude . . . to
    impose reasonable limits" on cross-examination relating to witness
    bias and coercion, id. at 679, and this is where the government
    focuses its arguments on appeal.     The government suggests that the
    district court acted properly in limiting cross-examination of
    Rosario for fear that, should Rosario deny his earlier statements,
    the defendants' lawyers would be forced to testify regarding their
    meeting with the witness in violation of ethical rules applicable
    to attorneys.      See Gov't Br. at 47 ("Morales'[s] counsels had no
    witness, other than themselves, to present the alleged statements
    made by Rosario that he had been threatened by an agent and did not
    let Morales use the vehicle.").
    Any such concern was premature at the time that the trial
    judge     barred   further   cross-examination   of   Rosario.11    The
    government's objection precluded cross-examination at an early
    11
    Because the concern with attorney testimony was premature,
    we offer no opinion on whether the prospect of such testimony could
    have justified the court's ruling.        We note, as a general
    proposition, that a concern with trial counsel testifying as a
    fact-witness might not, on its own, support exclusion of relevant
    testimony. See Waltzer v. Transidyne General Corp., 
    697 F.2d 130
    ,
    133-35 (6th Cir. 1983) (holding that a trial judge erred in
    precluding defense counsel from testifying at trial to contradict
    key statements made by one of the plaintiff's witnesses, even
    though, in doing so, defense counsel would have violated the
    ethical rule against trial counsel testifying as a fact witness).
    -17-
    juncture, just as attorney Carlo was asking Rosario to confirm that
    he had told Carlo that he was approached by law enforcement prior
    to Morales's arrest. The cross-examination might have proceeded in
    any number of appropriate directions at that point.         For example,
    if attorney Carlo had been allowed to ask Rosario whether law
    enforcement had threatened him in order to pressure him into
    testifying that he had lent the TrailBlazer to Morales, Rosario
    might have simply confirmed the account.         This confirmation would
    eliminate the possibility that one of Morales's lawyers would take
    the stand.    Even if Rosario had denied any pressure, there would
    have been room for additional cross-examination on the point before
    Morales's lawyers had to consider testifying.        We also do not know
    whether Morales's lawyers would have sought to testify, or would
    have simply let Rosario's denial stand.         The record suggests that
    the latter course was at least as likely as the former.          During the
    course of the sidebar on this issue, attorney Carlo repeatedly
    protested that he had no desire to testify as a witness.           In sum,
    the attorney testimony concern raised by the government was, at
    best, an inchoate one at the time the judge cut off cross-
    examination, and thus offers no support for that ruling.
    The government additionally suggests that the allegations
    of   law   enforcement   intimidation    were   "speculative,"    and   that
    allowing the testimony would have caused undue confusion.                The
    government is correct that a district court may properly limit
    -18-
    cross-examination on "'inherently speculative'" theories of bias,
    where "'the      defendant   is unable    to    lay   a   proper evidentiary
    foundation.'"     United States v. Martínez-Vives, 
    475 F.3d 48
    , 53-54
    (1st Cir. 2007) (quoting United States v. Callipari, 
    368 F.3d 22
    ,
    39 (1st Cir. 2004), vacated on other grounds 
    543 U.S. 1098
     (2005)).
    Here, however, the court did not give Carlo a chance to lay any
    evidentiary foundation, barring all questions about the witness's
    interactions with law enforcement and defense counsel.             Moreover,
    the proposed cross-examination was not, on its face, a speculation-
    fueled "'fishing expedition,'" 
    id. at 54
     (quoting Callipari, 
    368 F.3d at 39
    ), as Carlo represented to the court personal knowledge
    of statements by the witness indicating that he had been threatened
    by law enforcement agents.
    We   thus   conclude   that   the    trial    judge   abused   his
    discretion.12
    C.   Admission of Opinion Testimony from Muñoz
    The last error relates to Muñoz's testimony that she did
    not believe Morales's explanation for his arrest -- namely, that
    the authorities "had confused him with someone else."13              Morales
    12
    We do not decide whether this error amounts to a violation
    of the Sixth Amendment, nor need we do so, in light of our holding
    that the application of the non-constitutional harmless error
    standard requires a new trial. See infra Part III.
    13
    The relevant testimony was as follows:
    Q. Did there come a time after [Morales] bailed out that
    you met with him?
    -19-
    argues that, in permitting Muñoz to express her view on the
    credibility of Morales's statement, the district court admitted
    improper lay opinion testimony and thereby abused its discretion.
    We agree.14
    The Federal Rules of Evidence allow lay opinion to be
    admitted only upon the satisfaction of two conditions.                First, the
    proffered opinion cannot be grounded in scientific, technical, or
    specialized knowledge, but rather must be "rationally based on the
    perception of the witness."           Fed. R. Evid. 701.          Second, the
    opinion   must   be   "helpful   to   the    jury   in    acquiring    a   'clear
    understanding of the witness's testimony or the determination of a
    fact in issue.'"      United States v. Flores-de-Jesús, 
    569 F.3d 8
    , 20
    (1st Cir. 2009) (quoting Fed. R. Evid. 701).             As we have explained,
    lay opinion will fail this second, "helpfulness" requirement "when
    A. Yes.
    Q. How many times?
    A. Four times.
    Q.   When you met with him, did you ask him about the
    charges that were pending against him?
    A. Yes.
    Q. What did he say to you?
    A. That it was a confusion, that they had confused him
    with someone else, that that was the reason that he had
    the electronic [ankle bracelet], but once that was
    cleared up, it was going to be over and it was going to
    be left behind.
    Q. Ma'am, did you believe that?
    [Objection and sidebar]
    A. No.
    14
    We bypass the issue of whether Muñoz's testimony on this
    point meets the basic relevance threshold set by Federal Rule of
    Evidence 401.
    -20-
    the jury can readily draw the necessary inferences and conclusions
    without the aid of the opinion."           Lynch v. City of Boston, 
    180 F.3d 1
    , 17 (1st Cir. 1999) (citing 7 J. Wigmore, Evidence §§ 1917–18);
    see also United States v. Meises, Nos. 09–2235, 09–2239, 
    2011 WL 1817855
    ,    at   *7    (1st   Cir.   May    13,   2011)   ("The   nub     of    [the
    helpfulness] requirement is to exclude testimony where the witness
    is no better suited than the jury to make the judgment at issue,
    providing assurance against the admission of opinions which would
    merely tell the jury what result to reach." (citations omitted)
    (internal quotation marks omitted)).
    Muñoz's opinion testimony falters at this second hurdle.
    The central issue in Morales's trial, and the one upon which
    Morales's defense of mistaken identity rested, was whether or not
    Morales    was   the   "El    Chapo"   who    had   delivered     drugs    to    the
    cooperating witnesses.15 Thus, in asking Muñoz to state whether she
    believed Morales's claim that the authorities "had confused him
    with someone else," the government was effectively inviting the
    witness to express an opinion on the ultimate issue in the case.
    It is true that there is no categorical bar to such "ultimate
    issue" opinion testimony.        See Fed. R. Evid. 704(a).         However, lay
    opinion testimony on the ultimate issue in a case must satisfy Rule
    701's helpfulness requirement, and "seldom will be the case when a
    15
    As Morales did not testify, his mistaken identity defense
    was based entirely on the impeachment of the government's
    witnesses.
    -21-
    lay opinion on an ultimate issue will meet the test of being
    helpful to the trier of fact since the jury's opinion is as good as
    the witness'[s] . . . ."         See Mitroff v. Xomox Corp., 
    797 F.2d 271
    ,
    276 (6th Cir. 1986).       The jury here, having heard the testimony of
    those directly involved in the charged trafficking offenses, was in
    a    far   superior    position    than   Muñoz   to   "draw    the   necessary
    inferences    and     conclusions"    about   Morales's   mistaken     identity
    defense.     Lynch, 
    180 F.3d at 17
    .           Where, as here, "attempts are
    made to introduce meaningless assertions which amount to little
    more than choosing up sides, exclusion for lack of helpfulness is
    called for by [Rule 701]."         Fed. R. Evid. 701 advisory committee's
    note (1972).          The trial judge thus abused his discretion in
    allowing Muñoz's opinion into evidence.
    III.
    Having found that the trial judge made a number of
    erroneous evidentiary rulings over the course of Morales's trial,
    we now consider whether those errors entitle Morales to a new
    trial.     See Meises, 
    2011 WL 1817855
    , at *14.
    A.    Standard
    Our determination of whether to grant a new trial is
    governed     by   a   harmless    error   standard.     We     will   find   non-
    constitutional evidentiary errors harmless where it is "'highly
    probable that the error[s] did not influence the verdict.'"                   
    Id.
    -22-
    (quoting Flores-de-Jesús, 
    569 F.3d at 27
    ).16   Rather than focus on
    any one error, Morales argues for a new trial based on the
    aggregate effect of the errors below on the fairness of his trial.
    Because "[t]he inquiry to determine whether cumulative errors are
    harmless is the same as for individual error," 
    id.,
     we do that
    cumulative analysis.    In conducting our analysis, we keep in mind
    that the government has the burden of establishing harmlessness,
    Flores-de-Jesús, 
    569 F.3d at 27
    , and we will vacate if we find
    "that the effect of the errors, considered together, could not have
    been harmless" in light of the applicable standards.    Alvarez v.
    Boyd, 
    225 F.3d 820
    , 825 (7th Cir. 2000) (citing United States v.
    Oberle, 
    136 F.3d 1414
    , 1423 (10th Cir. 1998)).
    B.   Cumulative Error
    The rubric of cumulative error demands that trial errors
    be weighed "against the background of the case as a whole, paying
    particular weight to factors such as the nature and number of the
    errors committed; their interrelationship, if any, and combined
    effect; how the district court dealt with the errors as they arose
    (including the efficacy -- or lack of efficacy -- of any remedial
    efforts); and the strength of the government's case."   Sepúlveda,
    
    15 F.3d at 1196
    .    In weighing the impact of the trial judge's
    16
    Errors that implicate constitutional rights are subject
    to a more demanding standard: the government must "demonstrate that
    the error was harmless beyond a reasonable doubt by showing that
    the defendant would have been convicted in the absence of the
    error." United States v. Pridgen, 
    518 F.3d 87
    , 91 (1st Cir. 2008).
    -23-
    errors on the fairness of Morales's trial, the "background of the
    case as a whole" assumes particular prominence here.                            
    Id.
    As we have described, the government built its case
    against Morales almost exclusively on two lines of testimony.
    First   and    most      significant         was    the    testimony       of    the      three
    cooperating        witnesses,     and        particularly        Ureña's    and       Gómez's
    identification       of Morales         as    the   "El Chapo"       who        ferried     the
    shipments of drugs to shore in Puerto Rico.                       Second was Rosario's
    testimony that he had loaned to his former brother-in-law Morales
    the black Chevrolet TrailBlazer that the police observed in a
    meeting   with      Ureña.        The     government        did    not     introduce        any
    additional     evidence      of     the      sort    one    often    sees       in    a     drug
    prosecution: no physical evidence linking Morales to the drugs or
    to the boats used to deliver them, no video or photographic
    surveillance capturing Morales meeting with those involved in
    trafficking, and no audio recordings.                     The government's case thus
    depended,     to    an    unusual    extent,        on     the    credibility          of   its
    witnesses.     On the other side of the equation was a simple defense
    of mistaken identity: defense counsel contended that Morales,
    though known by the nickname "El Chapo," was not the El Chapo who
    participated in the charged drug trafficking.
    As detailed below, the trial court's erroneous rulings
    substantially interfered with Morales's ability to counter the
    government's case by impeaching two critical witnesses, Santana and
    -24-
    Rosario.     The effect of these rulings was then compounded by the
    admission of improper testimony from Muñoz.         Viewing the errors in
    the context of the trial as a whole, we cannot conclude that it is
    "highly probable" that the jury verdict escaped their collective
    influence.       Meises,   
    2011 WL 1817855
    ,     at   *14   (quoting
    Flores-de-Jesús, 
    569 F.3d at 27
    ).
    1. Exclusion of Ortiz
    We begin with the erroneous exclusion of Agent Ortiz's
    testimony regarding Santana's post-arrest description of El Chapo
    "as a white, short, skinny male." The government contends that the
    judge's error was harmless because the agent's testimony "would
    have impeached only part of Santana's testimony," leaving intact
    his description of the drug trafficking organization and the
    details of the three shipments.          The government's argument is
    misguided.     As we said in another case where, as here, "[t]he
    central issue was one of identification," "[e]vidence that someone
    other than the defendant was identified as the criminal is not only
    probative but critical to the issue of the defendant's guilt."
    Pettijohn v. Hall, 
    599 F.2d 476
    , 480 (1st Cir. 1979).            Here, of
    course, Santana did not affirmatively identify another individual
    as El Chapo – in fact, at trial, he denied ever having met El
    Chapo.17     However, in an account in obvious tension with this
    17
    As we have detailed above, Santana testified that he only
    communicated with El Chapo by telephone.
    -25-
    testimony, Santana provided to the police two days subsequent to
    his arrest a physical description of El Chapo, which suggests that
    Santana personally met him.         Moreover, the description, given
    nearly contemporaneously with the charged conduct, was of a "white"
    man, while Morales is described in the presentence investigation
    report as "Black/Hispanic."       These discrepancies accord with the
    defense's theory that Morales was the victim of mistaken identity.
    Thus, it is of little consequence whether or not the bulk of
    Santana's testimony would have remained uncontradicted if Agent
    Ortiz had been permitted to testify, as the piece that would have
    been impeached goes to the most critical issue in the trial.
    A more substantial argument for harmlessness might be
    that the   proposed   testimony    from   Agent Ortiz would      not have
    directly   affected   the   testimony     given   by   Ureña   and   Gómez,
    potentially the two most important witnesses (as the only ones to
    personally identify Morales at trial as a participant in the
    charged offenses).    However, effective impeachment of Santana by
    means of his prior statements was relevant to the credibility of
    Ureña and Gómez as well, as Santana's contradictory accounts would
    play into the defense's theory that the three cooperating witnesses
    "concocted [a] story to save their own necks."          In the course of
    cross-examination, attorney Carlo established that the three grew
    up together in the Dominican Republic, were long-time friends, and
    -26-
    had spoken together in jail after their arrest.18   This inferential
    evidence of fabrication would have been substantially fortified by
    evidence that one of the three had given a very different account
    to the authorities of his involvement with El Chapo immediately
    after arrest, and later denied doing so at trial.
    2.   Limitation on Cross-Examination of Rosario
    In light of the absence of physical evidence linking
    Morales to the charged drug trafficking, the thwarted attempt to
    impeach Rosario's testimony also takes on particular significance.
    The surveillance photographs of an individual in a black Chevrolet
    TrailBlazer meeting with Ureña were the only independent, non-
    testimonial evidence going to El Chapo's identity, and it was
    Rosario's testimony that tied that evidence to Morales.   According
    to attorney Carlo, however, Rosario initially told the police that
    18
    Carlo's cross-examination also undermined Ureña's testimony
    by drawing out a number of inconsistencies between Ureña's trial
    testimony and prior testimony he had given before the grand jury.
    These inconsistencies included, for example, the location where
    Ureña had spent the night before the first drug pickup (before the
    grand jury he said that he had slept at Págan's Lajas house, but at
    trial he denied it and said he had gone to a hotel); whom he met at
    the Wendy's on the day of the first pickup (before the grand jury
    he testified that El Chapo had come to get him, but at trial he
    said that it was another man driving El Chapo's white Montero); how
    much he had been paid for his first pickup (before the grand jury
    he said $9,000, but he testified at trial that it was $13,000);
    where the first and second pickups took place (before the grand
    jury he testified that the pickups occurred at the same location,
    and at trial he said that they were at different beaches); and
    where he had taken the third shipment of drugs (before the grand
    jury he said he had taken the drugs to Lajas, but at trial he said
    Cidra).
    -27-
    "Chapo never used the [TrailBlazer]," and changed his story to
    implicate Morales only after the police had subjected him and his
    wife to a campaign of harassment.            If true, the trial judge's
    ruling prevented the jury from hearing important testimony.19
    Rosario's testimony would have been undermined if defense counsel
    had been able to elicit admissions that Rosario and his wife had
    been intimidated by law enforcement agents, see United States v.
    Scheer, 
    168 F.3d 445
    , 450 (11th Cir. 1999) ("Had [the defendant]
    been able to bring out in his cross-examination of [the witness]
    the fact that [the witness] had been intimidated by the assistant
    U.S. attorney prosecuting this case, the value of [the witness's]
    testimony would have been considerably diminished."), and even more
    so if defense counsel had been able to establish that Rosario had
    changed his account after such intimidation.
    3.   Admission of Opinion Statement by Muñoz
    Lastly,   the   admission    of    Muñoz's   opinion   on   the
    credibility of Morales's defense may also have influenced the
    jury's verdict, although the force of the opinion was undermined by
    defense counsel's cross-examination.         We believe the admission of
    Muñoz's opinion contributed, however modestly, to the likelihood
    that the other evidentiary errors at trial influenced the jury's
    verdict.
    19
    Because the trial judge barred cross-examination from
    proceeding, we cannot know whether Rosario would have admitted or
    denied the account.
    -28-
    IV.
    In sum, given the nature of the government's case against
    Morales and the seriousness of the evidentiary errors at issue, we
    conclude that the government has not met its burden of proving that
    it is "'highly probable that the error[s] did not influence the
    verdict.'"     Meises,     
    2011 WL 1817855
    ,   at   *14     (quoting
    Flores-de-Jesús,    
    569 F.3d at 27
    ).   Instead,   those     errors
    unavoidably call into doubt the reliability of the verdict and
    "'the underlying    fairness     of    the    trial.'"   United     States   v.
    Meserve, 
    271 F.3d 314
    , 332 (1st Cir. 2001) (quoting Van Arsdall,
    
    475 U.S. at 681
    ).   We therefore vacate the judgment and remand for
    a new trial.
    So ordered.
    -29-