United States v. Gonzalez-Arias ( 2019 )


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  •            United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No.   18-1085
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Appellee,
    v.
    JUAN ELIAS GONZALEZ-ARIAS,
    Defendant, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
    [Hon. Leo T. Sorokin, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Torruella, Thompson, and Kayatta,
    Circuit Judges.
    Robert C. Andrews for appellant.
    Cynthia A. Young, Assistant United States Attorney, with whom
    Andrew E. Lelling, United States Attorney, was on brief, for
    appellee.
    December 20, 2019
    THOMPSON, Circuit Judge.       Until the Drug Enforcement
    Administration (the DEA) blew the lid off it, Juan Elias Gonzalez-
    Arias ran a thriving drug business out of his apartment — 264 East
    Haverhill Street, Unit 18, Lawrence, Massachusetts.         From those
    modest digs, he ordered kilograms of heroin from foreign sources,
    processed it, and dealt it to buyers around Massachusetts.       But in
    July 2015, federal agents swarmed the apartment, search warrant in
    hand, and arrested him.    Inside, they found a stolen gun, $30,088
    in cash, and over a kilo of heroin, along with other narcotics and
    tools of the trade (including drug ledgers, scales, and a hydraulic
    kilo press).   Gonzalez-Arias was indicted and pled guilty to drug
    trafficking    charges,   including   conspiracy   to   distribute   one
    kilogram or more of heroin, which carried a ten-year mandatory
    minimum.1 The district judge sentenced him to 136 months in prison.
    On appeal, Gonzalez-Arias offers several arguments —
    that the judge should have suppressed the evidence from his
    apartment, let him withdraw his guilty plea, appointed him a new
    lawyer for sentencing, and set a lower guideline sentencing range.
    We'll tackle each claim in turn — and all told, spotting no
    reversible error, we affirm.
    1 See 21 U.S.C. §§ 841(b)(1)(A), 846. Gonzalez-Arias was also
    charged with two counts of distributing heroin (for each of two
    undercover buys), and one count of possessing heroin with intent
    to distribute it. 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1).
    - 2 -
    MOTION TO SUPPRESS
    Background
    In June 2016, when he (finally) settled on a lawyer
    (private attorney Scott Gleason),2 Gonzalez-Arias's first order of
    business was to move to suppress the cache of evidence seized from
    his apartment.   In greenlighting the search, the U.S. magistrate
    judge relied on an affidavit signed by DEA Special Agent Garth
    Hamelin.    In it, Hamelin recounted a year-long investigation
    (involving wiretaps, video surveillance, and undercover drug buys)
    and he explained why his team had reason to believe they'd find
    evidence of a crime in Gonzalez-Arias's flat.        In pressing a
    suppression motion, Gonzalez-Arias claimed that the facts in the
    affidavit didn't show probable cause for the search, so (as he
    told it), the magistrate judge shouldn't have issued the warrant,
    which triggered an unconstitutional search of his apartment.   The
    judge disagreed and denied the motion to suppress.   Gonzalez-Arias
    appeals that ruling to us, making the same Fourth Amendment claim.
    2 By that time, Gonzalez-Arias had already gone through
    several lawyers.     First, then-public defender William Fick
    represented Gonzalez-Arias at his first appearance.         Next,
    Gonzalez-Arias retained Steven DiLibero, who replaced Fick. Then,
    in November 2015, John Verdecchia and Brian Quirk replaced
    DiLibero. In April 2016, both Verdecchia and Quirk withdrew to
    make way for Gleason, who stayed on the case until March 2017.
    - 3 -
    Law
    Under the Fourth Amendment, a search warrant may not
    issue without probable cause:      a "nontechnical conception" that
    relies on "common-sense conclusions about human behavior" and "the
    factual and practical considerations of everyday life on which
    reasonable and prudent" people act.     Illinois v. Gates, 
    462 U.S. 213
    , 231 (1983) (citations omitted).    Given all the facts alleged
    in the DEA's warrant application, there must have been a "fair
    probability" — in other words, a "reasonable likelihood" — that
    the agency would find "evidence of a crime" in Gonzalez-Arias's
    apartment. United States v. Clark, 
    685 F.3d 72
    , 76 (1st Cir. 2012)
    (quoting 
    Gates, 462 U.S. at 238
    ); see also United States v. Roman,
    
    942 F.3d 43
    , 51 (1st Cir. 2019) ("The inquiry is not whether 'the
    owner of the property is suspected of crime' but rather whether
    'there is reasonable cause to believe that the specific things to
    be searched for and seized are located on the property to which
    entry is sought.'" (quoting Zurcher v. Stanford Daily, 
    436 U.S. 547
    , 556 (1978))).
    In reviewing a district court's decision to deny a motion
    to suppress, we review its legal conclusions afresh ("de novo"),
    and its fact findings for clear error.    United States v. Ribeiro,
    
    397 F.3d 43
    , 48 (1st Cir. 2005).    That said, we (like the district
    court) must give "considerable deference to reasonable inferences
    the issuing magistrate may have drawn" from the facts set out in
    - 4 -
    the affidavit supporting the DEA's application for the search
    warrant, reversing only if the affidavit contained no "substantial
    basis for concluding that probable cause existed."       United States
    v. Zayas-Diaz, 
    95 F.3d 105
    , 111 (1st Cir. 1996) (cleaned up);
    accord 
    Gates, 462 U.S. at 238
    –39.         And we're not stuck with the
    district court's reasons for denying the motion to suppress; we'll
    affirm if "any reasonable view of the evidence supports the
    decision."    
    Clark, 685 F.3d at 75
    .
    Application
    Gonzalez-Arias doesn't dispute there was probable cause
    to believe he was part of a drug distribution conspiracy.          Nor
    could he.    DEA agents watched (through pole-mounted cameras and a
    GPS tracker on Gonzalez-Arias's car) and listened (via wiretaps)
    for over a year as he sold heroin to undercover agents and criminal
    associates and talked shop over the phone.           Agents heard him
    quarterback drug deals and hand-offs, negotiate prices with buyers
    and debts to suppliers, and solicit multi-kilo hauls of drugs from
    foreign sources.     And based on that surveillance, Agent Hamelin's
    affidavit colored     Gonzalez-Arias     a seasoned, high-volume drug
    trafficker. For example, in the fall of 2014, he twice sold $2,100
    worth of heroin (30 grams per sale) to the undercover agent — and
    that was just a preview.      During the second sale, he urged the
    agent to buy even more — "at least 100 [grams] per week" (emphasis
    added) — and suggested he'd sell up to "two kilos" of heroin for
    - 5 -
    $70 per gram.   And in March 2015, a cohort ordered just that amount
    (two kilos) from Gonzalez-Arias and came to his apartment to pick
    it up.   Just two months later — in his biggest move — Gonzalez-
    Arias told his associate to order at least ten kilos from a Mexican
    supplier, picked up the first one-kilo shipment himself, borrowed
    $20,000 to pay for the drugs,3 then told the associate not to worry
    about where they would be stored because he (Gonzalez-Arias) would
    "welcome the women" (code for "kilograms of drugs," wrote Agent
    Hamelin).
    And so, admitting there was "evidence that [he] was
    engaged in the drug trade" (and getting an A for understatement),
    Gonzalez-Arias takes aim at what we've called the "nexus" element
    of the probable cause standard, see United States v. Feliz, 
    182 F.3d 82
    , 86 (1st Cir. 1999) (splitting the analysis into two parts:
    "probable cause to believe that (1) a crime has been committed —
    the 'commission' element, and (2) [that] enumerated evidence of
    the offense will be found at the place to be searched — the so-
    called   'nexus'   element"),   urging   that   "there   was   no   direct
    evidence" that he used the apartment at 264 East Haverhill Street
    to peddle drugs "in the time period leading up to the search."
    3 By the way, that wasn't the first five-figure loan Gonzalez-
    Arias took to finance his drug business. Agents later overheard
    him discussing another $20,000 debt to an overseas supplier.
    - 6 -
    This   sally   stumbles   out    the   gate.        A    magistrate
    "interpreting    a   search   warrant     affidavit      in       the   proper
    'commonsense and realistic fashion'" may find "probable cause to
    believe that criminal objects" are in "a suspect's residence" even
    if there's no "direct evidence":    that is, even if agents or their
    informants never spotted the illicit objects at the scene.              
    Id. at 88
    (quoting United States v. Ventresca, 
    380 U.S. 102
    , 108 (1965)).
    Rather, she may glean the link from circumstantial evidence,
    including the "type of crime" suspected and "normal inferences"
    about "where a criminal would hide [the] evidence" sought, combined
    with more "specific observations" (like bustle in and out before
    and after drug deals) identifying the residence as a probable hub
    or haven for criminal transactions.         
    Roman, 942 F.3d at 51
    –52
    (quoting 
    Feliz, 182 F.3d at 88
    and 
    Ribeiro, 397 F.3d at 50
    –51).
    And such evidence abounded here.
    For starters, common sense and experience teach that a
    big-time drug-mover like Gonzalez-Arias needs somewhere to keep
    his drug money, books, and spoils.        See 
    Feliz, 182 F.3d at 87
    –88
    (finding it "reasonable" to think — based on "common sense,
    buttressed by [an] affiant's opinion as a law enforcement officer"
    — that a "long-time," multi-kilo-level "drug trafficker" would
    need to keep detailed accounts, customer lists, and money in a
    "safe yet accessible place" like his home).              And here, Agent
    Hamelin (who had thirteen years of DEA experience) wrote in his
    - 7 -
    affidavit      that   traffickers         like    Gonzalez-Arias   need   to   keep
    records (e.g., balance sheets listing the considerable money he
    owed foreign drug sources), proceeds from sales (like cash and
    jewelry), paraphernalia (think scales, sifters, packaging, and
    heat-sealing devices), and weapons in "secure locations . . . for
    ready       access"   and    to    hide   them    from   police.      Though   such
    "generalized observations" are rarely enough to justify searching
    someone's home, 
    Roman, 942 F.3d at 52
    (quoting 
    Ribeiro, 397 F.3d at 50
    ), they're still factors a judge can weigh in the balance,
    United States v. Rivera, 
    825 F.3d 59
    , 64–65 (1st Cir. 2016).
    Against      that   backdrop,       Gonzalez-Arias's    calls    and
    movements strongly suggested that 264 East Haverhill Street was
    the hub of his drug operation and, therefore, a natural place to
    store his drugs, records, and tools.                For example,
          For the first controlled buy, he left the apartment
    complex nine minutes before he handed the
    undercover agent 30 grams of heroin at the Loop
    Mall in nearby Methuen, making it unlikely he
    stopped along the way.
          On March 27, 2015, the morning after discussing the
    two-kilo deal with Gonzalez-Arias, a co-conspirator
    pulled up to Gonzalez-Arias's building, told him to
    "[o]pen up," and left with a green bag.
          A few weeks later, Gonzalez-Arias told another
    cohort (who'd asked, "Is that ready?") that he was
    "making" two batches of heroin to fill an order,
    and that he was "coming," minutes before he emerged
    from the apartment building and drove to a
    rendezvous in a nearby parking lot.
    - 8 -
          Lastly, about a month before the warrant issued,
    Gonzalez-Arias called his associate from that same
    East Haverhill Street building and arranged to pick
    up the first kilo of the ten-kilo Mexican shipment.
    We've "repeatedly" found probable cause to search a
    defendant's    home   when   agents   spotted   him   "leaving   the   home
    immediately prior to selling drugs" elsewhere.          United States v.
    Barnes, 
    492 F.3d 33
    , 37 (1st Cir. 2007).        And in Rivera, even when
    the defendant stopped at a stash house before moving on to the
    deal, we found probable cause to search his apartment because he
    was "a long-time, high-volume drug dealer" and used the place "as
    a communications point to further his drug crimes" (he made calls
    from there to set up the 
    deals). 825 F.3d at 64
    .   As in Rivera
    and Barnes, that Gonzalez-Arias made his illicit business calls
    and processed the drugs at the East Haverhill Street building,
    often minutes before he handed them off to buyers and associates,
    suggested that he kept the ingredients, processing tools, and
    records there, along with the weapons to protect them.
    Hoping to slice the baloney just thin enough, Gonzalez-
    Arias argues that even if the drug dealing traced back to 264 East
    Haverhill Street (a three-story, multi-unit building), there was
    "only the most tenuous evidence linking [him] to the apartment
    that was searched" (unit 18) "rather than just some unit" in that
    building.     Moreover (he adds), by the time agents applied for the
    - 9 -
    warrant in July 2015, "the evidence of controlled buys had grown
    stale, with the most recent" one "happening over 7 months" earlier.
    But neither claim cuts it. Four months before they asked
    for the warrant, agents overheard Gonzalez-Arias order a food
    delivery to 264 East Haverhill Street and tell the delivery person
    to buzz apartment 18.   Maybe he was eating with a neighbor.   But
    there was at least a "fair probability" that Gonzalez-Arias was
    ordering food from the same unit he used to stage his drug deals.
    Remember, the government need not make a beyond-a-reasonable-doubt
    or even a more-likely-than-not showing to establish probable cause
    for a search.   See 
    Rivera, 825 F.3d at 63
    ; 
    Feliz, 182 F.3d at 87
    .
    As for the staleness issue, we've long recognized that
    drug trafficking operations on this scale take time to develop —
    they "often germinate over a protracted period of time" — so
    "information that might otherwise appear stale may remain fresh
    and timely during the course of the operation's progression."
    United States v. Tiem Trinh, 
    665 F.3d 1
    , 14 (1st Cir. 2011) (citing
    United States v. Schaefer, 
    87 F.3d 562
    , 568 (1st Cir. 1996)).
    Well-networked, well-sourced, and well-settled drug peddlers like
    Gonzalez-Arias aren't likely to close up shop (and toss all the
    goods, papers, and tools in it) just a month after ordering ten
    kilos of product.   Gonzalez-Arias's drug calls and related trips
    from his home base right up to the month before the warrant issued
    were fresh evidence that the illicit items remained in the flat.
    - 10 -
    See 
    Feliz, 182 F.3d at 87
    (where two controlled buys three months
    before warrant issued weren't stale, given that defendant's drug
    operation was "continuous and ongoing").4
    For those reasons, the district court did not err when
    it denied the motion to suppress.
    GUILTY PLEA
    Background
    After the judge refused to suppress the trove of evidence
    found in Gonzalez-Arias's apartment, his attorney (still Gleason)
    began plea talks with the government. By January 2017, the lawyers
    had drafted a plea agreement, and the judge scheduled a "Rule 11"
    (read: guilty plea) hearing.     But when the time came (at the
    hearing on Thursday, January 5, 2017) Gonzalez-Arias was not
    prepared to sign it.   Gleason relayed that his client "wishe[d] to
    plea, but he believe[d] that the weight of the drug that's involved
    in this case" was "one to three kilos," and not "as high as 3.9
    4 The DEA affidavit also alleged probable cause to believe
    Gonzalez-Arias was violating the immigration laws and secreted
    "birth certificates and other identity documents" in his
    residence. Gonzalez-Arias also complains, for the first time on
    appeal, that the affidavit did not show probable cause that
    incriminating immigration paperwork would be found in the
    apartment, or provide any basis to search for storage unit or real
    estate records (which were also sought).       Since he does not
    identify any "good cause" to consider these unpreserved grounds
    for suppression, we don't consider them.     See Fed. R. Crim. P.
    12(c)(3).
    - 11 -
    kilos," as the government argued.   The drug weight claim, Gleason
    said, was Gonzalez-Arias's "sole contention."    "But he would be
    willing to plea" if the government agreed the drug weight was 1–3
    kilos.5   So the judge proposed to postpone the hearing until the
    following Monday to let the parties think it over.
    But before the hearing ended, Gonzalez-Arias (through
    Gleason) told the judge "that he ha[d] not seen the evidence, and
    he want[ed] more time to be able to review [it]."        Well (he
    clarified), the government gave all the evidence to his lawyer,
    and he'd seen most of the paper (like the reports from the lab
    testing the drugs, the drug ledgers recovered from his apartment,
    and the police reports).    But he hadn't seen those caught-on-
    camera moments — the surveillance video of his two hand-to-hand
    drug deals with the undercover agent, or of him and his co-
    5 "[A] defendant is responsible for drugs he personally
    handled or anticipated handling, and . . . for drugs involved in
    additional acts that were reasonably foreseeable by him and were
    committed in furtherance of the conspiracy." United States v.
    Sepulveda, 
    15 F.3d 1161
    , 1197 (1st Cir. 1993). The drug weight
    for which the defendant is "responsible" in turn determines the
    "base offense level" used to fix his guideline sentence.       See
    U.S.S.G. § 2D1.1(c).   So if the court found at sentencing that
    Gonzalez-Arias handled, planned to handle, or should have foreseen
    his co-conspirators handling 3.9 kilos of drugs, his offense level
    would have been higher (32 levels) than if he was only accountable
    for 1–3 kilos (30 levels), raising his guideline range. See 
    id. And a
    higher guideline range might have affected Gonzalez-Arias's
    sentence.   See Gall v. United States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    , 49 (2007)
    (explaining that "[t]he Guidelines should be the starting point
    and the initial benchmark" for deciding the sentence). Hence the
    hullabaloo.
    - 12 -
    defendant coming and going when the deals went down (captured on
    the camera mounted on the telephone poll outside his apartment).
    These were still being "processed" by the jail.     Plus, he hadn't
    heard the audio recordings of the intercepted phone calls or read
    the transcripts of them.    So the judge told Gleason to bring that
    evidence to the jail so Gonzalez-Arias could watch and listen.
    Gleason pledged to do so that weekend.
    But he didn't follow through.      At the hearing that
    Monday, Gleason reported that he'd been "unable to get [the
    evidence] put together for Sunday," when he'd visited the jail, so
    Gonzalez-Arias still hadn't reviewed the tapes.       Gleason added
    that he had, however, talked the government down to 1–3 kilos of
    drug weight, sweetening the plea agreement.     At first, Gonzalez-
    Arias still wasn't having it.     When Gleason finished giving the
    judge updates, Gonzalez-Arias passed him a letter and asked Gleason
    to read it to the judge.    In it, Gonzalez-Arias protested that his
    prior lawyer had advised him he was only on the hook for 850 grams
    (putting him below the one-kilo trigger for the ten-year mandatory
    minimum).    When Gleason finished reading the letter aloud, he
    corrected his client:      in fact (he reminded), agents found two
    stashes of heroin (around 600 grams in a coffee bag and 680 grams
    in plastic zip-lock bags) in Gonzalez-Arias's apartment.    And he'd
    shown Gonzalez-Arias the lab reports that showed those weights.
    To confirm, he pulled both reports from his briefcase and showed
    - 13 -
    them to Gonzalez-Arias in court.        Meanwhile, the government told
    the judge (and the defense) that it would withdraw the plea deal
    and "seek[] to prove in excess of three kilograms of heroin against
    the defendant" unless he pled that day.        With the drug reports in
    front of him, and the government's plea offer about to lapse,
    Gonzalez-Arias relented; he told the judge that he wished to plead
    guilty.
    Once Gonzalez-Arias made his choice, the judge moved on;
    he described the charges, their elements, the possible penalties
    (including the ten-year minimum and twenty-year maximum under the
    plea agreement), Gonzalez-Arias's trial rights (which he'd give up
    by   pleading   guilty),   the   plea   agreement,   and   the   sentencing
    process.   And he told Gonzalez-Arias he could not "withdraw [his]
    plea of guilty" if he got "a sentence that [was] longer than [he]
    expect[ed]."    Gonzalez-Arias said he understood.         The government
    then summarized the evidence against him, telling the story of the
    "long investigation," using "telephone intercepts, pole camera
    surveillance, and physical surveillance," that caught Gonzalez-
    Arias "discussing" and "entering" multiple drug deals.           Gonzalez-
    Arias admitted that was true.      He was "pleading guilty because [he
    was] in fact guilty," he agreed.           And he did so "freely and
    voluntarily."    By the way, he was "fully satisfied" with Gleason's
    work.
    - 14 -
    A few months later, Gonzalez-Arias changed his tune.        In
    a March 24, 2017 letter to the judge, he wrote that he was
    dissatisfied with Gleason's work and asked to have his first lawyer
    (William Fick) back.6     While that request was pending (on March
    27, 2017), all the evidence in the case (including the tapes)
    arrived at the jail, and Gonzalez-Arias had watched and listened
    to it within a week.
    The judge held a prompt (March 29, 2017) hearing to
    discuss the request for new counsel.           After talking with his
    client,   Gleason   elaborated   that     Gonzalez-Arias   thought   that
    Gleason "ha[d]n't been able to do anything for him" and "that the
    ten-year minimum mandatory [was] something that he could have
    gotten himself."    The judge told him he couldn't appoint Fick, who
    was now in private practice, but (finding Gonzalez-Arias indigent)
    he agreed to appoint another lawyer from the federal public
    defender's office, Timothy Watkins.
    Seven more months passed.          In the interim, Watkins
    changed jobs, and a third public defender, Scott Lauer, took over
    as lead counsel with a research and writing attorney, Samia
    Hossain, as co-counsel.
    6 In his letter, Gonzalez-Arias complained that Gleason hadn't
    communicated with him since he'd pled guilty two months prior, had
    given him "misleading information," and cited mostly Massachusetts
    cases in his motion to suppress, even though "[f]ederal law governs
    the admissibility of evidence in federal prosecutions," United
    States v. Charles, 
    213 F.3d 10
    , 19 (1st Cir. 2000).
    - 15 -
    About    two     weeks   before     his    scheduled    sentencing,
    Gonzalez-Arias (through Lauer and Hossain) moved to withdraw his
    guilty plea.        He argued that his plea hadn't been knowing or
    intelligent because he hadn't seen or heard the surveillance tapes
    when he pled. And without them, he couldn't "reconcile the varying
    accounts he had received" from his lawyers "regarding the drug
    weight."   Moreover (he said), the plea hadn't been voluntary.             The
    government had threatened to take the deal off the table if he
    didn't plead guilty by the end of the day.                     And given the
    government's impatience, Gleason had urged him to cop.               Pressured
    from both sides, Gonzalez-Arias "felt compelled" to plead guilty
    without hearing or seeing the recordings.              What's more, he added,
    Gleason's failure to share the evidence "even after repeated
    instructions from th[e] [c]ourt," and his failure to "press the
    government"    for    more    time   to   do   it,    constituted   ineffective
    assistance of counsel.
    After a hearing, the judge denied the motion.             First, he
    found that "no one threatened" or "coerced" Gonzalez-Arias to plead
    guilty.    He'd admitted as much under oath, and the government had
    the right to time-limit its plea offer.               Second, after "a careful
    and lengthy colloquy," Gonzalez-Arias had sworn he understood the
    charges, their elements, his trial rights, the plea agreement, the
    ten-year    minimum     and     twenty-year      maximum,     and   the   other
    consequences of his conviction.            In fact, "[h]e focused like a
    - 16 -
    laser on the drug weight," showing he "underst[ood] that greater-
    than-one kilogram meant at least ten years in jail."               He'd also
    understood the evidence. He'd heard and agreed to the government's
    summary of it.     And "the mere fact, if it [was] a fact, that he
    did not personally review all of [that] evidence" beforehand did
    "not undermine" the plea.            Even after he reviewed all of the
    discovery with his new counsel, "[n]owhere in his [motion to
    withdraw]     d[id]   he      identify      anything   specific     in     the
    discovery . . . that [was] causing him to want to withdraw his
    plea."   Based on all that, the judge found that there was "no fair
    and just basis under Rule 11 [to allow Gonzalez-Arias] to withdraw
    the plea."
    Gonzalez-Arias    now    appeals   that   decision,   which    we
    review for abuse of discretion.          See United States v. Pellerito,
    
    878 F.2d 1535
    , 1538 (1st Cir. 1989).
    Law
    A defendant has no "absolute right" to take back his
    guilty plea before sentencing.           United States v. Caramadre, 
    807 F.3d 359
    , 366 (1st Cir. 2015). Instead, he must persuade the trial
    court that there's a "fair and just reason for requesting the
    withdrawal."     
    Id. (quoting Fed.
    R. Crim. P. 11(d)(2)(B)).             This
    depends on several factors.      Most critically — since a guilty plea
    waives a slew of rights (to remain silent, to have a jury trial,
    and to confront accusers) — it must be voluntary, knowing, and
    - 17 -
    intelligent.     See United States v. McDonald, 
    121 F.3d 7
    , 11 (1st
    Cir. 1997); see also Boykin v. Alabama, 
    395 U.S. 238
    , 243 n.5
    (1969).     These     "core   concerns   of   [Federal     Rule   of   Criminal
    Procedure] 11" are "the most important factors to consider" on a
    motion for plea withdrawal.        United States v. Isom, 
    580 F.3d 43
    ,
    52 (1st Cir. 2009); see also United States v. Allard, 
    926 F.2d 1237
    , 1244 (1st Cir. 1991) (explaining that the Rule 11 procedure
    aims to ensure that the defendant understands the charge and the
    consequences of the plea).        The other factors are the defendant's
    reasons for withdrawal; the timing of the request; whether he
    credibly claims innocence; and whether unwinding the plea would be
    unfair to the government.         United States v. Gates, 
    709 F.3d 58
    ,
    68–69 (1st Cir. 2013).        The judge may also factor in whether there
    was a "plea agreement" that "gained something for the defendant."
    United States v. Aker, 
    181 F.3d 167
    , 170 (1st Cir. 1999).
    Application
    On appeal, Gonzalez-Arias urges that the judge should
    have let him withdraw the guilty plea for two reasons.                We'll take
    each in turn.
    a.   Ineffective Assistance of Counsel
    First, he urges, as he did below, that he pled guilty
    without    the   effective     assistance     of    counsel    (and    therefore
    involuntarily) since Gleason failed to bring him the video/audio
    evidence    before     the    government's         plea-deal   offer     lapsed.
    - 18 -
    Defendants     making   such   a    claim      —   "that   deficient       legal
    representation contributed to their 'mistaken' guilty pleas" —
    must "meet the accepted tests for ineffective assistance [of
    counsel] before being allowed to withdraw pleas on this basis."
    
    Pellerito, 878 F.2d at 1537
    –38.        So Gonzalez-Arias needed to show
    that Gleason's performance "fell below an objective standard of
    reasonableness" and that "there is a reasonable probability that,
    but   for    [Gleason's]   error[    ]"      (i.e.,   if   he'd   shared     the
    surveillance evidence on time), Gonzalez-Arias "would not have
    pleaded guilty and would have insisted on going to trial."                 Hill
    v. Lockhart, 
    474 U.S. 52
    , 57–59 (1985) (citing Strickland v.
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 687 (1984)).
    Even if Gleason's slip-up was constitutionally deficient
    (and we don't decide if it was), Gonzalez-Arias's ineffective
    assistance claim fails at the second step; there's no "reasonable
    probability" that he would've turned down the plea deal if he'd
    seen and heard the surveillance tapes and recordings earlier.
    Thinking rationally (and no one suggests he wasn't), he had to
    understand he'd likely lose at trial (the judge and prosecutor
    explained the trove of evidence — including the surveillance
    footage, and the stash in his apartment — and Gleason showed him
    the lab reports spelling out drug types and weights more than once
    before he pled guilty).     And if the jury did convict, he'd face an
    80-months-higher guideline prison sentence than he'd face if he
    - 19 -
    pled guilty.7    That explains why, at the first (aborted) Rule 11
    hearing, he said he "wishe[d] to plea[d]" guilty and was only hung
    up on the drug weight.    The revised plea deal, which he signed the
    next week, gave him the only thing he held out for:    the government
    agreed to the 1–3 kilo weight.      See U.S.S.G. § 2D1.1(c)(4).      And
    the surveillance offered no reason to think he could do better.
    Far from an ace in the hole for the defense, the tapes featured
    him quarterbacking two- and ten-kilo drug deals — evidence the
    government could have used to get a higher sentence.            See 
    id. (increasing the
      defendant's   guideline   sentence   if   he   was
    responsible for over three kilos of heroin).        Hearing the tapes
    firsthand would not have emboldened Gonzalez-Arias to throw a Hail
    Mary pass at trial; most reasonably, it would have stiffened his
    resolve to plead guilty.
    Gonzalez-Arias's brief on appeal gives us no reason to
    think otherwise.      As before the district judge, he doesn't say
    7 This is because if he pled guilty, Gonzalez-Arias would
    receive at least two points off his offense level for acceptance
    of responsibility (and another point off if his plea was "timely");
    so his offense level would have been two or three points higher if
    he went to trial. See U.S.S.G. § 3E1.1. The government predicted
    that these three extra points would raise his guideline sentence
    by about 80 months.
    In addition to the 80-month guideline hike, the government
    had talked about trying to enhance Gonzalez-Arias's sentence based
    on his prior convictions, see 21 U.S.C. §§ 841(b)(1)(A), 851, and
    adding a charge based on the loaded gun found in his apartment,
    see 18 U.S.C. § 924(c), if he pressed on to trial.
    - 20 -
    what in the recordings made him regret pleading guilty.                   On the
    other hand, the government urges that it was the presentence report
    (or PSR for short), and not the audio-video evidence, which caused
    his about-face.           The PSR recommended that the judge find Gonzalez-
    Arias responsible not for 1–3 kilos, but for 4.2 kilos of heroin.
    That       might   explain    why,   although   Gonzalez-Arias   saw     all   the
    evidence by April 2017, he didn't move to withdraw his plea until
    after the PSR came out months later.            But as we've said before, an
    unfavorable PSR is not a strong reason to let a defendant withdraw
    his plea.          See United States v. Santiago Miranda, 
    654 F.3d 130
    ,
    139–40 (1st Cir. 2011) (where we found that the "timing" of the
    defendant's plea withdrawal request, made two months after he pled
    guilty and only after he got an "unfavorable PSR," "suggest[ed]
    that       it   was   a    recalculation   of   risks   and   benefits    —    not
    involuntariness — that produced [his] change of heart").                 We need
    not embrace the government's "the PSR made him do it" theory, and
    the district court made no finding on the matter.8               But whatever
    the reason Gonzalez-Arias changed his mind, he hasn't shown that
    it was, in fact, the surveillance tapes that caused the change —
    8Rather, the judge later explained that the timing of
    Gonzalez-Arias's motion was not a game-changer in his decision,
    given that the transition between Watkins and Lauer (Watkins
    "probably was unwinding from his cases and trying to transfer them,
    rather than . . . working 100 percent on the case[ ]" and Lauer
    needed "time to get up to speed on it") may have delayed the filing
    of the motion.
    - 21 -
    and that's fatal to his ineffective assistance claim.     See 
    Hill, 474 U.S. at 57
    –59.
    b.   Plea Colloquy
    As his second attack on the guilty plea, Gonzalez-Arias
    takes issue with the judge's Rule 11 colloquy.       He argues that
    when he pled guilty, he believed "that he could withdraw his plea"
    if anything in the audio/video evidence changed his mind.   He says
    that the "Rule 11 colloquy[ ] fail[ed] to correct that mistaken
    belief" because the judge "fail[ed] to mention anything about the
    consequences of seeing the undisclosed discovery."   The government
    counters that "nothing in the record supports Gonzalez-Arias's
    claim that he believed he could withdraw from the plea after seeing
    all of the evidence or otherwise misunderstood the consequences of
    the guilty plea."
    We wouldn't go quite as far as the government.    There's
    some suggestion in the transcript that Gonzalez-Arias was confused
    by the way the Rule 11 colloquy started off.       After the judge
    explained that he didn't have to plead guilty, Gonzalez-Arias said,
    "That's fine.   I will plead.      Then I'll have to go over the
    evidence, have them bring the evidence to me.   I have pled guilty
    without seeing the evidence."    Then his lawyer interjected:
    Mr. Gleason: Your honor, as I've indicated, I will
    be there [at the jail] tomorrow, with everything.
    And what I --
    - 22 -
    The Court: I guess I have this question for your
    client. Yes or no, today you wish to plead guilty?
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:         Yes, Your Honor.
    The Court: All right. I'll ask you the questions.
    Either way, I'm directing you, Mr. Gleason, to go
    there again tomorrow to provide the information.
    Later,   when   the    judge   was    warning   Gonzalez-Arias      about   the
    consequences    of    his   plea,    Gonzalez-Arias   hinted   at   confusion
    again:
    The Court: Do you understand that you will not be
    permitted to withdraw your plea of guilty if your
    sentence is longer than you expected, if you're
    unhappy with your sentence, or if it's different
    from any sentence your lawyer might have predicted?
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:   Do you mean I will not be
    allowed to withdraw my plea? I didn't --
    The Court: You cannot withdraw your plea of guilty
    because you get a sentence that's longer than you
    expect.
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:         Okay.
    The Court:       Or because you're unhappy with your
    sentence.
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:         Okay.
    The Court: Or because your sentence is different
    than your lawyer might have predicted.
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:         Okay.
    Gonzalez-Arias urges that "[b]y cutting him off and only listing
    three specific circumstances in which his plea could not be
    - 23 -
    withdrawn, the court left open the door to Mr. Gonzalez-Arias's
    mistaken belief that he could withdraw [his plea] upon seeing the
    evidence."
    However, Gonzalez-Arias makes this argument for the
    first time on appeal; his motion below took no issue with the
    judge's plea colloquy.     So he must show an error that was "plain
    — that is to say, clear or obvious," "affected [his] substantial
    rights," and "seriously affects the fairness, integrity or public
    reputation of judicial proceedings."         Rosales-Mireles v. United
    States, 
    138 S. Ct. 1897
    , 1904–05 (2018).           In the guilty plea
    context, the defendant "must, in order to demonstrate that his
    substantial rights were affected, show a reasonable probability
    that, but for the error, he would not have entered the guilty
    plea."    United States v. Figueroa-Ocasio, 
    805 F.3d 360
    , 368 (1st
    Cir. 2015) (cleaned up).         Since Gonzalez-Arias doesn't address
    whether the judge's (alleged) colloquy error met the last three
    prongs of plain error review, his argument about it is waived.
    See United States v. Severino-Pacheco, 
    911 F.3d 14
    , 20 (1st Cir.
    2018).    Anyway, he couldn't meet the third prong for reasons we've
    already    explained:     even   if   Gonzalez-Arias   hadn't   seen   the
    video/audio evidence before he pled guilty, and even if he thought
    he could change his mind once he reviewed it, the supposedly unseen
    evidence undoubtedly would not have prompted Gonzalez-Arias to
    proceed to trial.       So there's no "reasonable probability" that
    - 24 -
    "but for the error" he would have gone to trial.   
    Figueroa-Ocasio, 805 F.3d at 368
    .
    SIXTH AMENDMENT CLAIMS
    Background
    The day after the judge shot down the attempt to withdraw
    the plea, Lauer and Hossain wrote the judge that there'd been a
    "substantial breakdown in the attorney-client relationship" and
    asked to withdraw as Gonzalez-Arias's lawyers so the judge could
    appoint a new one.    The judge held a hearing on the motion two
    days later.   At the start, the judge excused the government from
    the room so Gonzalez-Arias and his attorneys could speak freely
    about their private communications.      After the government left,
    Gonzalez-Arias complained that Lauer had refused his request to
    appeal the plea decision before sentencing.9    The judge, however,
    was unimpressed.   He explained that Lauer's refusal was reasonable
    ("if not an indisputably . . . correct judgment"), since he
    couldn't appeal the plea decision before the end of the case.   And
    even if Lauer "responded negatively" about Gonzalez-Arias's "idea
    of withdrawing the guilty plea," he was just being honest:   it was
    9 As Lauer and Gonzalez-Arias described them, the alleged
    attorney-client issues were mainly between Gonzalez-Arias and
    Lauer, who (as we said before) was lead counsel — the one meeting
    with Gonzalez-Arias and making the key tactical decisions in the
    case (like moving to withdraw the plea). But Lauer and Hossain
    worked as a team, both moved to withdraw as counsel, and Gonzalez-
    Arias made clear he wanted to discharge both.
    - 25 -
    a "hard motion" and not "a slam dunk." So the judge had no "concern
    . . . that the federal defenders" were providing "anything less
    than zealous advocacy" (he called their plea-withdrawal motion
    "superbly done," "well documented," "well researched," and "an
    excellent piece of craftsmanship") and spied no issue that "would
    prevent [Gonzalez-Arias and his] lawyers from working together in
    this case."      That all said, the judge denied the motion for new
    counsel.
    A week later, though, Gonzalez-Arias went rogue; he
    appealed the guilty plea decision himself — an appeal which, sure
    enough, we later dismissed for lack of appellate jurisdiction. See
    United States v. Gonzalez-Arias, No. 17-1245 (1st Cir. Dec. 29,
    2017); United States v. Aliotta, 
    199 F.3d 78
    , 83 n.3 (2d Cir. 1999)
    ("Motions to withdraw guilty pleas are not among the 'small class'
    of   motions    immediately   appealable   in    criminal   cases.").     So
    eighteen days before the scheduled sentencing, Lauer and Hossain
    renewed their motion to withdraw.      The judge held another ex parte
    hearing the day before the scheduled sentencing.            Buckle up — it
    was a long one — but the details matter.         As we'll explain, we pay
    close    attention   to   Gonzalez-Arias's      reasons   for   wanting   new
    counsel, the judge's inquiry into those reasons, his warnings about
    going pro se, and whether Gonzalez-Arias "unequivocally" decided
    to do so.      See United States v. Kar, 
    851 F.3d 59
    , 6567 (1st Cir.
    2017).
    - 26 -
    First, Lauer updated the court:      Gonzalez-Arias "ha[d]
    lost confidence" in him and suggested he was "colluding with the
    prosecution."    Speaking for himself, Gonzalez-Arias added that he
    and Lauer did not "see eye to eye on the situation" and that he
    didn't "want [Lauer] to have anything more to do with [his] case."
    Asked why he and Lauer weren't "getting along," Gonzalez-Arias
    said that they could never agree:     he'd tried to show Lauer holes
    in the government's case against him, but Lauer responded that
    he'd already "signed the plea" and "c[ouldn't] do anything more
    now."   Since all they "did was argue about the plea," they hadn't
    had time to review the PSR.
    The judge didn't buy it.      First, he reminded Gonzalez-
    Arias that Lauer had, in fact, filed the motion to withdraw the
    plea, and that the judge had denied it.       He told Gonzalez-Arias
    that based on "the history in this case" (Gonzalez-Arias's issues
    with his previous lawyers), he was "not likely to appoint another
    lawyer to represent [him]."     So Gonzalez-Arias could either stick
    with Lauer and Hossain or, the judge said, "there's the possibility
    that you could represent yourself."      The judge then explained the
    implications of going pro se.    "What's left in your case before me
    is this:   your sentencing," he began.      He had already explained
    how sentencing (and the guidelines) worked before Gonzalez-Arias
    pled guilty.    Now, he reviewed what would happen at the sentencing
    hearing:   that "whether [he was] represented by counsel or not,"
    - 27 -
    Gonzalez-Arias and the government could object to the PSR, the
    judge would "resolve . . . every objection that's made," and after
    that,   he   would   "hear   arguments    about    what's       the   appropriate
    sentence."
    While on that topic of sentencing, the judge followed up
    on   the   PSR   issue.      Lauer   confirmed     that   the    "breakdown     in
    communication [had] prevented a serious conversation about [the
    PSR]," though after more questions, he clarified that Gonzalez-
    Arias had "reviewed the [PSR] independently" and pointed out
    "certain things" he disagreed with.
    Then, they had this exchange:
    The Court: All right. So Mr. Gonzalez-Arias, the
    first question is . . . do you wish Mr. Lauer and
    Ms. Hossain to continue as your lawyers, or not? What
    do you want as to them?
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias: Now, do you want to know what
    my objections to continuing with them [sic], or do
    you want to know why I want to do it alone?
    The Court: I want to know whether you want them as
    your lawyers or not.
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:         No,   I   do     not    want   them,
    definitely.
    The Court: All right. If I discharge them as your
    lawyers, do you want to represent yourself, or are
    you asking me to appoint another lawyer?
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:        I do not want to represent
    myself.
    - 28 -
    Gonzalez-Arias then rehashed his issues with prior lawyers.      But
    the judge repeated that he was "not going to appoint a new lawyer
    for [Gonzalez-Arias]."    In his view, the problem was not that
    Gonzalez-Arias was "oil and water with one particular lawyer" —
    many of the "issues [he] raise[d] relate[d] to earlier lawyers
    [he] had," and they would not be "fixed by having another lawyer."
    Rather, the problem was that Gonzalez-Arias was "not listening to
    Mr. Lauer," and granting the request would only delay sentencing.
    As the judge later explained, "If I appoint a new lawyer, I can't
    proceed with sentencing tomorrow.    I have to give that lawyer some
    reasonable period of time to read the [PSR] and talk to Mr.
    Gonzalez-Arias, and to then file objections with the Court."
    So the judge gave Gonzalez-Arias three choices:    (a) he
    could hire his own lawyer; (b) he could discharge Lauer and Hossain
    and "represent[ ] yourself" with them as "standby lawyers" (he
    confirmed that Gonzalez-Arias knew what that meant); or (c) he
    could "proceed with them as [his] lawyers."
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:    Could it be option (d)?
    The Court:   What's (d)?
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:     Appoint me another lawyer,
    Your Honor.
    The Court: You can ask for (d), yes. And I give
    you kudos, you'd be a good lawyer. Because even
    though I've told you that I'm not appointing
    another lawyer, you came back to me and asked again.
    - 29 -
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:      Right.
    The Court:     And the answer is, no, I'm not
    appointing another lawyer. And let me explain why.
    You're entitled to know why.
    Elaborating, the judge added that the "timing of th[e] request"
    showed "gamesmanship" by Gonzalez-Arias to delay the case and avoid
    facing his sentence.      He repeated that the problem was not with
    Gonzalez-Arias's     lawyers,   who    had   been   "excellent,"   but   with
    Gonzalez-Arias, who simply didn't agree with their advice.
    So (the judge continued) "[t]he question is how do you
    want to proceed?    With them as standby counsel, sitting there next
    to you, or do you want them to be your lawyers?"            He'd explained
    that "it's not a good idea to represent yourself" because "[t]he
    law is complicated, and there are a lot of rules.           And you're not
    familiar with those rules."        "And you can get good advice from
    people who are lawyers . . . and generally, it's not wise for
    defendants to represent yourself."             "So you know, there's an
    expression in America you may have heard:              The person who has
    himself for a client, has a fool for a lawyer."             Gonzalez-Arias
    responded:
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias: It's a tough situation, Your
    Honor, because, yeah, I didn't want them as
    counsel, but I was expecting to get another lawyer,
    because I'm not a lawyer, I don't know the law. I
    don't know the argument I'm going to make here about
    my case as a lawyer, because I don't know the law.
    So I'm in a tough situation. I'm pretty much pushed
    - 30 -
    to really keep them on my case, so they can make
    the argument, whatever they can make. . . .
    The Court: Well if you want, you can do this: You
    can discharge them, have them as standby.      [The
    Court explained again how sentencing, objections,
    and the guidelines worked.] And you could either
    have them tell you what objections they think that
    you ought to make . . . or you could have them make
    it on your behalf, even though they're standby.
    . . .
    Why don't we proceed that way. That way you're in
    charge, and they can do as much or as little as you
    want them to do.    And your objection to my not
    appointing you a new lawyer is preserved; that is,
    that means that by proceeding the way I've just
    described, you're not waiving any rights that you
    have to complain about my decision to not give you
    a new lawyer. Do you understand?
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:    Yes, sir.
    The Court:   Okay.
    Mr. Gonzalez-Arias:    That's fine.
    After that 45-minute conversation, the judge called the
    government back in and explained what happened.     "It would be fair
    to say," he said, "that Mr. Gonzalez-Arias is very committed to
    his position . . . that he would like Mr. Lauer and Ms. Hossain to
    be discharged from representing him . . . and that he does not
    wish to proceed pro se [and] wishes me to appoint him a new lawyer";
    but since there wasn't good cause to appoint new counsel, "the
    best way to proceed [was] they [Lauer and Hossain] should be
    discharged and serve as standby counsel."       So Gonzalez-Arias was
    - 31 -
    now "representing himself."         Though given the chance to weigh in
    ("The Court:    So is there something that you wish to raise before
    these proceedings conclude today?"), Gonzalez-Arias took no issue
    with the judge's summary and only asked for more time to prepare
    for sentencing.     At the government's urging, the court granted a
    three-week    continuance    to    give     Gonzalez-Arias      more   time    to
    prepare.
    When the time came for sentencing, the judge recapped
    that "[a]t [Gonzalez-Arias's] request that [he] didn't want Mr.
    Lauer to represent [him] anymore, [the judge had] discharged
    [Lauer] as [his] lawyer" and "directed that he be standby counsel."
    And Gonzalez-Arias proceeded to represent himself at the hearing.
    But he conferred with Lauer, and when requested, the lawyer chimed
    in at various points:       first, to argue that the judge should not
    increase the guideline range based on the gun found in Gonzalez-
    Arias's    apartment   (since     "the   firearm   .   .   .   ha[d]   not    been
    connected to Mr. Gonzalez-Arias by way of any forensic evidence,
    fingerprints, DNA, or the like," and the surveillance never caught
    him carrying it), and second, to argue for a sentence at the
    mandatory    minimum   (reviewing        Gonzalez-Arias's      background     and
    potential "to work, to teach, to coach [baseball] in the Dominican
    Republic").
    - 32 -
    The Claims
    Gonzalez-Arias distills two Sixth Amendment claims from
    this episode.    First, he urges, the judge violated his right to
    effective assistance of counsel by refusing to appoint him a new
    lawyer despite his "legitimate concerns" about Lauer and Hossain,
    who "refused to listen to or take the time necessary to understand
    his [unspecified] complaints" about his case.       Second, he never
    said he waived the right to counsel, and even if he had, his
    exchange with the judge (called a "colloquy") "was insufficient to
    ensure that [any] waiver of the right to counsel was voluntary,
    knowing, and intelligent," as the Constitution requires, so the
    court should not have let him go pro se (even with his lawyers on
    standby).
    We review for abuse of discretion the judge's decisions
    not to appoint new counsel and to let Gonzalez-Arias handle his
    sentencing pro se.    
    Kar, 851 F.3d at 65
    –66.      But like his other
    claims, Gonzalez-Arias's Sixth Amendment issues don't wash.
    a.   Motion for New Counsel
    The Sixth Amendment "guarantee[s] an effective advocate
    for each criminal defendant" but not always "the lawyer whom he
    prefers."    
    Id. at 65
    (quoting Wheat v. United States, 
    486 U.S. 153
    , 159 (1988)).    So — while a judge can't thrust the defendant
    into a trial (or here, a sentencing hearing) "with incompetent or
    unprepared counsel," Maynard v. Meachum, 
    545 F.2d 273
    , 278 (1st
    - 33 -
    Cir. 1976) — courts may sometimes "force criminal defendants to
    choose between effective representation by unwanted counsel and
    proceeding pro se," 
    Kar, 851 F.3d at 65
    .                For example, the judge
    may refuse an untimely request for a new defender (even when the
    accused can pay for one) if granting it would needlessly delay the
    proceedings.      See United States v. Woodard, 
    291 F.3d 95
    , 10607
    (1st Cir. 2002); Tuitt v. Fair, 
    822 F.2d 166
    , 172 (1st Cir. 1987)
    ("A last-minute request to substitute counsel should not be allowed
    to become a vehicle for achieving delay." (internal quotation marks
    omitted)); 
    Maynard, 545 F.2d at 278
    ("A court need not tolerate
    unwarranted delays, and may at some point require the defendant to
    go   to   trial   even   if   he    is    not     entirely   satisfied   with   his
    attorney.").      When a defendant asks for new appointed counsel, the
    judge must "conduct an appropriate inquiry into the source of the
    defendant's dissatisfaction" with his current defenders.                   United
    States v. Myers, 
    294 F.3d 203
    , 207 (1st Cir. 2002) (citing United
    States v. Allen, 
    789 F.2d 90
    , 92 (1st Cir. 1986)). That a defendant
    comes to distrust his lawyer isn't enough to justify appointing a
    new one; he "must provide the court with a legitimate reason for
    his loss of confidence."           
    Allen, 789 F.2d at 93
    .
    To see if the judge abused his discretion (as alleged
    here) in denying the request, we consider three main factors: "(1)
    the timeliness of the motion; (2) the adequacy of the court's
    inquiry    into   the    defendant's       complaint;    and   (3)   whether    the
    - 34 -
    conflict between the defendant and his counsel was so great that
    it resulted in a total lack of communication preventing an adequate
    defense."      United States v. Mejía-Encarnación, 
    887 F.3d 41
    , 47
    (1st Cir. 2018) (quoting 
    Kar, 851 F.3d at 65
    ); see also 
    Allen, 789 F.2d at 92
    .
    Regardless       of    whether     Gonzalez-Arias's      motions   to
    substitute counsel were timely, the judge did not abuse his
    discretion in denying them.               His probe into Gonzalez-Arias's
    problems    with     Lauer   and    Hossain    was   patient   and    searching;
    confronting     vague   complaints      (that    there   was   a   "substantial
    breakdown in the attorney-client relationship," and that Gonzalez-
    Arias thought Lauer was in cahoots with the government) the judge
    dug deeper, asked both Lauer and Gonzalez-Arias about their talks,
    and sussed out the real issues:           first, that Lauer had refused to
    file a mid-case appeal of the guilty plea decision, and second,
    that   Lauer   was    too    dismissive      about   Gonzalez-Arias's    bid   to
    withdraw his guilty plea initially and wouldn't keep discussing
    the issue after the judge ruled on it.               The judge found that the
    resulting difficulty communicating had at most sidetracked (but
    didn't prevent) discussion of the PSR and sentencing issues. We've
    found that similar inquiries were enough to smoke out the true
    reasons the defendant wanted new counsel and decide if they merited
    a change.      See 
    Allen, 789 F.2d at 93
    (finding court's inquiry
    "comprehensive" when it "invited appellant to make a statement,
    - 35 -
    listened to his reasons for being dissatisfied with his counsel,
    and found them to be without merit").
    As the district judge found, Gonzalez-Arias's complaints
    boiled down to this:       Lauer gave his honest (if grim) assessment
    of the plea-withdrawal motion and wouldn't file a clearly premature
    appeal.   But straight-talk doesn't make a lawyer deficient; rather
    (as the judge explained below), it equips a defendant to make
    clear-eyed decisions. And lawyers don't need to "waste the court's
    time with futile or frivolous motions" to be effective advocates.
    See United States v. Hart, 
    933 F.2d 80
    , 83 (1st Cir. 1991) (quoting
    United States v. Wright, 
    573 F.2d 681
    , 684 (1st Cir. 1978)).            So
    as we've repeatedly observed, a defendant isn't entitled to swap
    appointed counsel just because he dislikes his current lawyers'
    "accurate assessment of [his] predicament" or disagrees with their
    reasonable tactical decisions not to file frivolous papers. United
    States v. Francois, 
    715 F.3d 21
    , 29 (1st Cir. 2013) (that defendant
    "did not like hearing that the motions he wanted [his lawyer] to
    file were frivolous" and "that he would almost certainly be
    convicted   and   should    accept   a   plea   bargain"   didn't   justify
    appointing new counsel); see also 
    Kar, 851 F.3d at 66
    (affirming
    decision not to appoint new counsel for defendant who "simply
    disliked the substance" of his lawyer's advice); 
    Woodard, 291 F.3d at 108
    (finding that a lawyer's refusal to file a "motion that he
    - 36 -
    considered to be meritless" didn't warrant delaying trial so
    defendant could retain new counsel).10
    True, the judge did find that Gonzalez-Arias and his
    lawyers had "difficulty" communicating.            But "[a] defendant who
    seeks the replacement of appointed counsel must show more than the
    mere fact of a disagreement; he must show that the conflict between
    lawyer and client was so profound as to cause a total breakdown in
    communication, precluding the lawyer from effectively litigating
    the issues remaining in the case."            
    Myers, 294 F.3d at 208
    .      On
    appeal, Gonzalez-Arias does not contend that his conflict with
    Lauer crossed that line.        Though Lauer did claim (at the hearing
    on    his   second   motion    to   withdraw)   that   their    conflict   had
    "recently . . . prevented a serious conversation" about the PSR,
    Gonzalez-Arias does not press this point on appeal — perhaps
    because (as Lauer told the judge during the same hearing) Lauer
    and    Gonzalez-Arias    did    discuss   the   report:        Gonzalez-Arias
    reviewed it himself, identified portions he disagreed with, and
    shared those concerns with Lauer.         See United States v. Pierce, 
    60 F.3d 886
    , 891 (1st Cir. 1995) (finding that defendant's "proof
    that his relationship with [his lawyer] was beset with problems"
    10
    In case there's any doubt, we note that Lauer and Hossain's
    refusal to file a clearly premature appeal is a far cry from when
    a lawyer fails to file a timely notice of appeal.       See Rojas-
    Medina v. United States, 
    924 F.3d 9
    , 12 (1st Cir. 2019). Lauer
    filed a timely notice of appeal after sentencing.
    - 37 -
    didn't require new counsel where the two "were conversing with one
    another and had some appreciation for the other's opinions and
    sensibilities    at    the   time     the    motions   were    filed,"     so    that
    "communication between the counsel and client was sufficient to
    allow a satisfactory defense").              Though Lauer believed their PSR
    discussion    wasn't    "finished,"         neither    he   nor    Gonzalez-Arias
    identified for the judge anything they'd hoped to go over but
    didn't.
    Rather,   the    judge    reasonably      found      that   Lauer    and
    Hossain put up an "excellent" fight on the motion to withdraw the
    plea, even though they disagreed with it, and Lauer (conferring
    with   Gonzalez-Arias)       made   several     well-prepared       arguments      as
    standby counsel at sentencing.              So Lauer and Hossain were "still
    able to adequately represent" Gonzalez-Arias "despite the alleged
    breakdown in communication."           
    Mejía-Encarnación, 887 F.3d at 48
    .
    Their performance, and Gonzalez-Arias's history (he'd developed
    conflicts with at least three different lawyers), gave the judge
    good reason to find that any impediment came from Gonzalez-Arias's
    "own refusal to participate in his representation."                  
    Id. (finding new
    counsel uncalled for because Mejía's lawyer "fulfilled Mejía's
    request that he file motions to withdraw the guilty plea and to
    withdraw as counsel" and "zealously" argued for him at sentencing
    "despite the fact that Mejía was no longer cooperating with
    [counsel's] efforts to represent him"); see also United States v.
    - 38 -
    Reyes, 
    352 F.3d 511
    , 516 (1st Cir. 2003) ("[A] defendant cannot
    compel a change to counsel by the device of refusing to talk with
    his lawyer.").
    On    the      other    hand,         as   the    district    court   found,
    appointing new counsel would have delayed sentencing again — likely
    more than just three weeks — since the new lawyer would need to
    read the PSR, review the evidence and case history, speak with
    Gonzalez-Arias, learn his history, listen to his concerns, file
    any objections, and prepare a sentencing argument.                        On balance,
    therefore, the judge did not abuse his discretion in denying the
    motions to withdraw and appoint new counsel.                       See 
    Myers, 294 F.3d at 208
    (upholding a similar decision because "the district court's
    ultimate   conclusion       —     that      no    good      cause    existed   for    the
    appointment of new counsel and the concomitant delay in sentencing
    that such an appointment would entail . . . fell squarely within
    the realm of the court's discretion").
    b.   Waiver of Counsel/Going Pro se
    Gonzalez-Arias urges that even if it was okay for the
    judge to limit his choices (to sticking with Lauer and Hossain or
    going pro se), he didn't unequivocally (as required) waive his
    right to counsel.         And that's a serious claim; "the right to be
    represented     by   counsel      is   by    far      the   most    pervasive"   of   an
    accused's constitutional rights because it helps ensure he knows
    and can assert "any other rights he may have."                       United States v.
    - 39 -
    Cronic, 
    466 U.S. 648
    , 654 (1984).            So we must "indulge in every
    reasonable presumption" that Gonzalez-Arias did not mean to give
    it up.   United States v. Proctor, 
    166 F.3d 396
    , 401 (1st Cir. 1999)
    (quoting Brewer v. Williams, 
    430 U.S. 387
    , 404 (1977)).                That
    presumption only bends if the waiver was "'clear and unequivocal';
    otherwise, a 'court should not deprive defendant of his right to
    counsel.'"     United States v. Betancourt-Arretuche, 
    933 F.2d 89
    , 92
    (1st Cir. 1991) (quoting 
    Tuitt, 822 F.2d at 174
    ).          The waiver must
    also be "knowing, intelligent and voluntary."             United States v.
    Jones, 
    778 F.3d 375
    , 389 (1st Cir. 2015).              So before letting a
    defendant go on without counsel, the judge must warn the defendant
    "of the dangers and disadvantages of self-representation, so that
    the record will establish that he knows what he is doing and his
    choice   is    made   with   eyes   open."      
    Id. (quoting Faretta
       v.
    California, 
    422 U.S. 806
    , 835 (1975)).          To waive counsel knowingly
    and intelligently, the defendant must understand "the seriousness
    of the charge and of the penalties he may be exposed to" and have
    "a sense of the magnitude of the undertaking," that is:                    "an
    awareness that there are technical rules governing the conduct of
    a trial, and that presenting a defense is not a simple matter of
    telling one's story."        United States v. Robinson, 
    753 F.3d 31
    , 43
    (1st Cir. 2014) (quoting 
    Maynard, 545 F.2d at 279
    ).
    As Gonzalez-Arias points out, he told the judge up front
    that he "d[id] not want to represent [himself]," and he never said,
    - 40 -
    in so many words, that he "would waive his right to counsel."      So
    in his view, his so-called waiver was equivocal at best. But we've
    already rejected a similar claim.       In United States v. Kneeland,
    the defendant also said "he 'did not want to go pro se, but [did
    not] want to use [his lawyer].'"    
    148 F.3d 6
    , 11 (1st Cir. 1998).
    After the trial judge rejected his request for new counsel, he
    defended himself at trial (as Gonzalez-Arias did at sentencing).
    
    Id. On appeal,
    we found an unequivocal waiver "not because
    [Kneeland] ever stated, in so many words, that he did not want
    attorney representation, but because he explicitly dismissed his
    third court-appointed attorney in the face of ample warnings by
    the district court that he would not be provided a fourth appointed
    counsel."    
    Id. at 12
    (holding that "[a]though Kneeland initially
    stated that he 'did not want to go pro se, but did not want to use
    [his current lawyer],' his ultimate decision" to dismiss his
    attorney and present his case pro se "was an unambiguous expression
    of his preference").
    As in Kneeland, Gonzalez-Arias disliked his options (and
    as the judge noted, it wasn't his "first choice" to go pro se).
    But his final decision was express and firm.      To recap, Gonzalez-
    Arias stressed from the get-go that he didn't "want [Lauer] to
    have anything more to do with [his] case."       Even after the judge
    said he was "not likely to appoint another lawyer" and explained
    the alternatives (stick with Lauer/Hossain, go pro se with them on
    - 41 -
    standby, or get rid of them altogether), Gonzalez-Arias confirmed
    he did not want the first option:               he "d[id] not want [Lauer and
    Hossain], definitely."       So after more dialogue, the judge proposed
    that he take the second option ("discharge" his lawyers and "have
    them as standby" counsel).             Gonzalez-Arias said "[t]hat [was]
    fine."
    If it wasn't, he would have said so.               The judge made
    clear that Gonzalez-Arias could keep Lauer and Hossain as his
    lawyers if he wanted.        And as the judge observed, Gonzalez-Arias
    pushed for what he wanted; earlier in the hearing, he'd asked
    several times (even after the judge denied his request) for another
    lawyer.    Yet, when the judge rehashed the agreed-on plan (that the
    lawyers be "discharged and serve as standby counsel"), reiterated
    that Gonzalez-Arias was now "represent[ing] himself," and asked if
    there    was    anything   else   he    "wish[ed]    to   raise    before   th[e]
    proceedings conclude[d]" that day, Gonzalez-Arias only requested
    more time to prepare for sentencing (which he got).                   And when the
    time    came    for   sentencing,   Gonzalez-Arias        in   fact   represented
    himself.       His express agreement to go pro se, combined with his
    unflinching follow-through, made his final choice unambiguous.
    See 
    Kneeland, 148 F.3d at 11-12
    ; see also 
    Maynard, 545 F.2d at 276
    –78 (finding in a habeas case that "while Maynard did not
    affirmatively wish to represent himself, when given a clear choice
    between proceeding with counsel already appointed or going pro
    - 42 -
    se," he presented his own case and therefore "elected the latter";
    remanding      for    more    evidence    on    whether    waiver      was    knowing,
    intelligent, and voluntary).
    Gonzalez-Arias's waiver of counsel was also voluntary.
    On appeal, he argues that given his problems with Lauer and
    Hossain, he had no practical choice but to take the helm himself.
    But since the lawyers continued to have meaningful discussions
    with Gonzalez-Arias and provide effective advocacy despite their
    rocky relationship with him, the judge's decision to impose the
    choice he did — between sticking with them and going pro se — did
    not   "place[        Gonzalez-Arias]     in    a    dilemma   of    constitutional
    magnitude."      
    Maynard, 545 F.2d at 278
      ("[A]     refusal     without
    good cause to proceed with able appointed counsel is a 'voluntary'
    waiver."); see also 
    Francois, 715 F.3d at 28
    –29; 
    Kneeland, 148 F.3d at 12
    –13.         And though Gonzalez-Arias hints in passing that
    his   waiver    wasn't       "knowing    and   intelligent"      and    the   court's
    "detailed colloquy" was "insufficient," he never tells us why he
    thinks it so.         We need not fill in the blank.             See United States
    v. Zannino, 
    895 F.2d 1
    , 17 (1st Cir. 1990) ("[I]ssues adverted to
    in a perfunctory manner, unaccompanied by some effort at developed
    argumentation, are deemed waived.").
    And so, the judge did not abuse his discretion or violate
    the Sixth Amendment by making Gonzalez-Arias choose between his
    - 43 -
    current counsel or going pro se, or by letting Gonzalez-Arias
    represent himself at sentencing.
    SENTENCING
    Background
    When all was said and done, the judge sentenced Gonzalez-
    Arias to 136 months in prison, the government's recommendation,
    and five years of supervised release.                   To get there, he started
    (as required) by calculating Gonzalez-Arias's sentencing guideline
    range.     See Gall v. United States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    , 49 (2007) ("[A]
    district        court    should        begin   all    sentencing    proceedings    by
    correctly calculating the applicable Guidelines range."); United
    States     v.    Chisholm,       
    940 F.3d 119
    ,    130   n.7   (1st   Cir.   2019)
    (explaining that courts derive a defendant's guideline range from
    his   "offense          level"    and     "criminal     history     category,"     and
    describing what those are).              First, Gonzalez-Arias's total offense
    level was 30,11 based on the 1–3 kilos of drugs found in his
    11As we noted earlier, the guidelines set a base offense
    level of 30 if the defendant was responsible for 1–3 kilos of
    heroin, and a base level of 32 if the weight was 3–10 kilos. See
    U.S.S.G. § 2D1.1(c). At sentencing, the judge rejected probation's
    claim that Gonzalez-Arias was responsible for 3–10 kilos of heroin,
    set the weight at 1–3 kilos, and therefore arrived at the base
    level of 30. The judge also added a two-level enhancement for the
    loaded gun, but a two-level reduction for Gonzalez-Arias's
    "acceptance of responsibility" cancelled that out. Finally, the
    judge rejected the government's request to add more levels because
    (it unsuccessfully argued) Gonzalez-Arias played a "leadership
    role" in the drug operation. Thus, Gonzalez-Arias's total offense
    level stayed at 30.
    - 44 -
    apartment.    As for Gonzalez-Arias's criminal history category, the
    judge found it was III.        Though Gonzalez-Arias had only one prior
    conviction (a 2001 conviction in New York state court for criminal
    possession of a controlled substance in the second degree, see
    N.Y. Penal Law § 220.18), he had been given a serious sentence
    (three   years   to   life),   and   he   was   still   on   parole    (despite
    Gonzalez-Arias's argument to the contrary) when he committed the
    federal crimes. That gave him five criminal history points: three
    for the prior prison sentence, see U.S.S.G. § 4A1.1(a) (adding "3
    points for each prior sentence of imprisonment exceeding one year
    and one month"), and two for committing the federal crime while on
    parole, see 
    id. § 4A1.1(d)
    (adding "2 points if the defendant
    committed the instant offense while under any criminal justice
    sentence, including . . . parole").           Which put his guideline range
    at 121–151 months in prison.
    On appeal (as he did below), Gonzalez-Arias objects to
    that five-point pile-up from the New York conviction.                 First, he
    urges that although the New York court sentenced him to three years
    to life in prison, he "really served a six-month sentence," so (in
    his view) that prior sentence was only worth two points.                See 
    id. § 4A1.1(b)
    (assigning only "2 points for each prior sentence of
    imprisonment of at least sixty days" but less than or equal to one
    year and one month).       Second, he says that his New York parole
    ended before he committed the federal crimes at issue here.               So as
    - 45 -
    he would have it, he had only 2 criminal history points, so his
    criminal history category was II (not III).   See U.S.S.G. ch. 5,
    pt. A (table).    That would have lowered his guideline range to
    108–135 months.
    Law
    "We review criminal sentences imposed under the advisory
    guidelines regime for abuse of discretion." United States v.
    Flores-Machicote, 
    706 F.3d 16
    , 20 (1st Cir. 2013).    In doing so,
    we review the judge's interpretation of the sentencing guidelines
    de novo and his underlying factual findings for clear error.   
    Id. And we'll
    dub an error "clear" only when we have "a strong,
    unyielding belief" that the judge made a mistake.    United States
    v. Occhiuto, 
    784 F.3d 862
    , 868 (1st Cir. 2015).   Viewed under that
    lens, neither of Gonzalez-Arias's sentencing-related claims cuts
    ice.12
    Application
    First, Gonzalez-Arias says he only served six months in
    a "shock incarceration program" for his New York conviction before
    12The government thinks it's "doubtful whether Gonzalez-Arias
    raised these claims [about the sentencing guidelines] in
    sufficient detail below or on appeal to avoid plain error review,"
    but maintains that the claims fail "under any standard of review."
    So we'll analyze Gonzalez-Arias's challenges to his assigned
    guideline range as if they were preserved. See United States v.
    Encarnación-Ruiz, 
    787 F.3d 581
    , 586 (1st Cir. 2015) ("When the
    government fails to request plain error review, we, and many of
    our sister circuits, review the claim under the standard of review
    that is applied when the issue is properly preserved below.").
    - 46 -
    being deported to the Dominican Republic — not the full three-year
    sentence imposed.      See N.Y. Correct. Law § 865 (explaining that a
    "shock incarceration program" is "a program pursuant to which
    eligible inmates are selected to . . . serve a period of six months
    in a shock incarceration facility, which shall provide rigorous
    physical activity, intensive regimentation and discipline and
    rehabilitation therapy and programming").               Inmates in New York
    apply to the program after being sentenced.             See 
    id. §§ 865,
    867;
    see also People v. Miller, 
    29 N.Y.S.3d 586
    , 587 (N.Y. App. Div.
    2016) ("[T]he determination as to whether to accept any particular
    individual into [the shock incarceration program] lies within the
    authority of the [New York] Department of Corrections and Community
    Supervision   [DOCCS     for   short],   rather   than     the    [sentencing]
    court.").   As Gonzalez-Arias would have it, because he only served
    six months of his three-years-to-life sentence, the New York
    conviction only carried two points under § 4A1.1.               Here, however,
    he   overlooks    that    under    the    guidelines,      a     "sentence   of
    imprisonment"    is   measured    by   "the   maximum    sentence    imposed."
    U.S.S.G. § 4A1.2(b)(1) (emphasis added).            So "criminal history
    points are based on the sentence pronounced, not the length of
    time actually served."         
    Id. § 4A1.2
    cmt. n.2.           Since Gonzalez-
    Arias doesn't dispute that the New York court sentenced him to
    more than one year and one month in prison, the judge properly
    - 47 -
    added three points for the New York sentence.    That Gonzalez-Arias
    was released earlier than that does not affect his score.    
    Id. Second, Gonzalez-Arias
       challenges      the   judge's
    determination, based on information in the PSR, that he was on
    parole for the New York offense when he committed the crime in
    this case.   He urges that New York's Drug Law Reform Act (DLRA),
    passed in 2004 while he was in the Dominican Republic (after being
    deported), ended his parole before that, so he should not have
    received the two points under § 4A1.1(d) (again, adding "2 points
    if the defendant committed the instant offense while under any
    criminal justice sentence, including . . . parole").    In pertinent
    part, the DLRA "provided that felony drug offenders sentenced under
    the old [drug] law[s] may now be eligible . . . to obtain early
    termination of parole." People v. Utsey, 
    855 N.E.2d 791
    , 794 (N.Y.
    2006).   Specifically, it directed "the [New York] division of
    parole [to] grant termination of sentence after three years of
    unrevoked presumptive release or parole to a person" who, like
    Gonzalez-Arias, was "serving an indeterminate sentence for a class
    A [drug] felony offense."   2004 N.Y. Sess. Laws ch. 738 (amending
    N.Y. Exec. Law § 259-j(3-a)) (emphasis added).
    But even assuming that this provision applied to a
    defendant who, like Gonzalez-Arias, was "released without any
    supervision and subject to a single condition — remaining out of
    th[e] [United States] — with which he did not comply," Tavarez v.
    - 48 -
    Dennison, 
    829 N.Y.S.2d 437
    , 439 (N.Y. Sup. Ct. 2006) (holding that
    the DLRA did not entitle such a defendant to have his parole
    terminated early), Gonzalez-Arias doesn't contend that the New
    York Division of Parole ever terminated his parole.    In fact, he
    admitted at sentencing that he never contacted the Division when
    he returned to the U.S. in 2007.   So he gave the district judge no
    reason to doubt probation's report in the PSR that, based on DOCCS
    records, his "parole ha[d] not been terminated" by the Division.
    See United States v. González, 
    857 F.3d 46
    , 61-62 (1st Cir. 2017)
    ("The defendant bears the burden of disputing the PSR's factual
    findings, and absent an objection '[ ]supported by countervailing
    proof,' the district court usually may accept the findings in the
    PSR without further inquiry." (quoting 
    Occhiuto, 784 F.3d at 868
    )).13   Accordingly, the judge did not clearly err in finding
    that Gonzalez-Arias committed his federal crimes while on parole
    and adding the two criminal history points under § 4A1.1(d) for
    that reason.14
    13  Gonzalez-Arias does not argue for an exception to this
    rule here.
    14  Gonzalez-Arias   also   says   that  his   sentence   was
    "substantively unreasonable," but in support, he just relies on
    his claim that the judge calculated a too-high guideline range
    based on his New York conviction arguments, and says the judge
    erred by failing to "explain [his] upward variance" from the
    correct (lower) range. This claim actually sounds in procedural
    error. See 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 51
    (characterizing a "fail[ure] to
    adequately explain the chosen sentence — including an explanation
    for any deviation from the Guidelines range" as procedural error).
    - 49 -
    CONCLUSION
    For those reasons, we affirm Gonzalez-Arias's conviction
    and sentence.
    Anyway, since we find that the judge calculated the right guideline
    range, Gonzalez-Arias's premise is wrong: the sentence wasn't an
    "upward variance." And since he doesn't give us any other reason
    to think his sentence was substantively unreasonable, we can stop
    there. See 
    Zannino, 895 F.2d at 17
    .
    - 50 -