United States v. Serrano-Mercado , 784 F.3d 838 ( 2015 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 13-1730
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Appellee,
    v.
    WILSON SERRANO-MERCADO,
    Defendant, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF PUERTO RICO
    [Hon. Carmen Consuelo Cerezo, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Thompson, Lipez, and Barron,
    Circuit Judges.
    Raul S. Mariani-Franco for appellant.
    Francisco A. Besosa-Martínez, Assistant United States
    Attorney, with whom Rosa Emilia Rodríguez-Vélez, United States
    Attorney, and Nelson Pérez-Sosa, Assistant United States Attorney,
    were on brief, for appellee.
    May 1, 2015
    BARRON, Circuit Judge.        Wilson Serrano-Mercado contends
    the District Court made two mistakes in sentencing him for a
    federal gun crime.    First, he argues the District Court erred in
    counting more than one of his prior convictions for Puerto Rico
    criminal offenses as a conviction for a "crime of violence" under
    the Sentencing Guidelines.       Second, he contends the District Court
    gave too much significance under those same guidelines to the
    existence of an obliterated serial number on the frame of the
    firearm he was convicted of possessing, when the serial number on
    the slide was unaltered. We hold the District Court did not commit
    reversible error in either respect and thus affirm the sentence
    imposed.
    I.
    In District Court, Serrano pled guilty to being a felon
    in knowing possession of a firearm -- a 9mm pistol.                
    18 U.S.C. §§ 922
    (g)(1), 924(a)(2).         The Sentencing Guidelines specify a
    suggested   sentencing   range    for     such   a   conviction.    U.S.S.G.
    §§ 2K2.1, 5A.    Serrano rests his challenge to his sentence on the
    two errors that he claims the District Court made in identifying
    the proper range.        And thus, it is helpful to provide some
    background about how, in general, such ranges are identified, and
    then how, in particular, the range was identified here.
    Under the guidelines, two variables provide the basis for
    the sentencing range.      The first variable is called the offense
    -2-
    level.   It is expressed in terms of a point score.    Id. § 5A.   The
    score is a function, initially, of what is known as the base
    offense level.    Id. § 2 introductory cmt.   The base offense level
    is generally calculated with reference to the nature of the crime
    of conviction.     The guidelines then add points to or subtract
    points from the base offense level for various enhancing or
    mitigating factors that may or may not be present in a defendant's
    case.    The result is the total offense level.
    The second variable is a defendant's criminal history
    category.    Id. § 5A.    The guidelines assign criminal sentences
    certain point values.      Id. § 4A1.1.       These points are then
    translated into one of six criminal history categories, represented
    by the use of a Roman numeral from I to VI.       Id. § 5A.   The more
    severe the criminal history a defendant has on the basis of the
    points assigned, the higher the category.
    On the basis of these two variables, the guidelines then
    set forth suggested sentencing ranges in a chart.     Id.   One axis of
    the chart lists possible total offense levels.        The other axis
    lists possible criminal history categories. At the intersection of
    every possible value for these two variables, the chart sets forth
    a suggested range of sentences.
    Before actually imposing a sentence, a district court
    often receives input from various actors about how to calculate the
    defendant's guidelines sentencing range.        If there is a plea
    -3-
    agreement, as there was here, the agreement will often recommend a
    range.   And, in setting forth that recommendation, the agreement
    will often set forth certain facts that bear on the calculation of
    the base offense level, the total offense level, and the criminal
    history category.   See Fed. R. Crim. P. 11(c)(1).
    The district court will also have the benefit -- as,
    again, was true here -- of a probation officer's pre-sentence
    report, which is based on that officer's investigation.       That
    report, too, will set forth facts bearing on the sentencing
    guidelines calculation.    And that report may, in light of those
    facts, suggest a calculation different from the plea agreement.
    See Fed. R. Crim. P. 32(d).
    The district court need not accept the calculations in
    the plea agreement or the pre-sentence report.       Nor must the
    district court choose a sentence that falls within the range the
    district court's own guidelines calculation yields, though the
    sentence must comply with additional substantive and procedural
    limitations.   See 
    18 U.S.C. § 3553
    ; United States v. Booker, 
    543 U.S. 220
    , 245, 261 (2005).     But if the district court errs in
    making the guidelines calculation, the sentence may be reversed
    even though that calculation does not directly compel the sentence.
    See Gall v. United States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    , 51 (2007); United States v.
    Tavares, 
    705 F.3d 4
    , 25 (1st Cir. 2013).   And that is what Serrano
    argues must happen here.
    -4-
    In this case, the plea agreement recommended a sentencing
    range tied to a base offense level of 22.        The agreement made that
    calculation because it stated that Serrano had been convicted of
    one prior felony for a "crime of violence" at the time of his
    unlawful firearm possession.         U.S.S.G. §§ 2K2.1(a)(3), 4B1.2(a).
    The   plea   agreement   did   not   identify   any   of   Serrano's     prior
    convictions.     The plea agreement thus did not specify which one
    qualified as the crime of violence that warranted that base offense
    level of 22. The plea agreement's calculation also did not include
    a   four-point   increase   under    the   guidelines'     enhancement    that
    applies when the firearm involved in a felon-in-possession charge
    has "an altered or obliterated serial number."           Id. § 2K2.1(b)(4).1
    The probation officer's pre-sentence report, as amended,
    departed from the plea agreement's guidelines calculation.             And it
    did so in two respects.
    First, the amended pre-sentence report suggested a base
    offense level of 24, rather than 22.         The report used that higher
    base offense level because it stated that Serrano actually had more
    than one prior felony conviction for a "crime of violence."                Id.
    §§ 2K2.1(a)(2), 4B1.2(a).       The report did not expressly identify
    which of Serrano's prior convictions qualified as a crime of
    1
    The plea agreement also included a clause waiving Serrano's
    appeal rights, but only if the court accepted the plea's sentencing
    recommendation. Because the court did not, the government concedes
    that the plea agreement's appeal waiver does not apply.
    -5-
    violence.     The report thus did not identify the ones the report
    relied upon in setting the base offense level at 24.
    The    report     did    list,     however,     a       number   of   prior
    convictions for Serrano.           These convictions included a 2006 Puerto
    Rico conviction for assault that the parties both appear to agree
    does qualify as a conviction for a crime of violence.                              These
    convictions also included a 2005 Puerto Rico conviction under
    Article 3.1 of Law 54, Puerto Rico's Domestic Abuse Prevention and
    Intervention       Act,    
    P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 8, § 631
    ,    which   the
    government on appeal now contends also qualifies but which Serrano
    argues does not.          And, finally, the list included an earlier 2004
    conviction that the government does not argue qualifies.
    The second respect in which the pre-sentence report
    differed    from    the     plea   agreement     concerned       the    serial-number
    enhancement.       Unlike the plea agreement, the report concluded the
    enhancement did apply.            The report thus increased its calculation
    of the total offense level by four points. U.S.S.G. § 2K2.1(b)(4).
    The District Court adopted the pre-sentence report's
    recommendations regarding the guidelines calculation. The District
    Court stated Serrano had "two domestic violence convictions and one
    assault conviction which meet the guidelines criteria for crimes of
    violence."     The District Court thus started from a base offense
    level of 24 because it had found, contrary to the representation in
    the plea agreement, that Serrano had been convicted of more than
    -6-
    one offense that qualified as a crime of violence.               The District
    Court       then   applied   the    four-point   serial-number   enhancement.
    Finally, and consistent with the plea agreement and the pre-
    sentence report, the District Court subtracted three points for the
    defendant's acceptance of responsibility, U.S.S.G. § 3E1.1 cmt. 3,
    due to the plea.
    The District Court thus arrived at a total offense level
    of 25.       The District Court also determined Serrano had a criminal
    history category of V.             These calculations then combined to set
    Serrano's guidelines sentencing range between 100 and 125 months.
    The District Court imposed a sentence at the lower bound of that
    range: 100 months.
    On appeal, Serrano argues for the first time that his
    base offense level should have been 22, not 24.2           He contends that
    2
    Serrano argues on appeal that he raised an objection below,
    but we conclude otherwise. Serrano did object to the first pre-
    sentence report's "total adjusted offense level [of] 23 when the
    plea agreement establishes a total offense level of 19."        But
    nothing in the record indicates that this general objection to the
    unamended pre-sentence report's total offense level was an
    objection to counting the 2005 felony under Article 3.1 -- or any
    other prior offense -- as an additional crime of violence for
    purposes of determining the base offense level. Indeed, the pre-
    sentence report's addendum relates that when, following Serrano's
    lodging that general objection, the probation officer explained his
    view that Serrano had two prior convictions for crimes of violence,
    Serrano did not offer an objection or contrary argument.       And,
    finally, Serrano did not object when the District Court stated at
    sentencing that it was applying the base offense level of 24
    because Serrano had at least two prior convictions for a crime of
    violence, including not only one for assault but two for domestic
    violence.
    -7-
    the lower base offense level is the right one because his 2006
    felony    conviction   for    assault   is   the   only   one    of   his   prior
    convictions that qualifies as a crime of violence under the
    guidelines. Serrano also argues, as he did below, that the serial-
    number enhancement cannot apply because even though one serial
    number on the gun's frame was obliterated, another serial number on
    the slide remained unaltered.           For that reason, he contends the
    District Court erred in adding four points to his total offense
    level.3
    If the District Court had used a base offense level of 22
    and had not applied the serial-number enhancement, then, after the
    deduction for acceptance of responsibility, Serrano's total offense
    level would have been 19. With his criminal history category of V,
    his guidelines sentencing range would have been 57 to 71 months in
    prison.     U.S.S.G.   §     5A.   Under     the   District     Court's     actual
    guideline calculation, by contrast, the range was 100- to 125-
    months.
    3
    Serrano's opening brief referenced a third potential ground
    for challenging the sentence: ineffective assistance of counsel.
    But Serrano raised this argument only in the statement of issues on
    appeal and did not advance the argument in the body of the brief.
    His reply brief made clear that the ineffective-assistance argument
    was erroneously added to the statement of issues in the first
    brief. We thus do not address it further.
    -8-
    II.
    Serrano's first challenge is to the District Court's
    conclusion that his base offense level was 24 because he had two
    prior felony convictions that counted under the guidelines as
    convictions for a "crime of violence."         We start by describing how
    we usually decide whether a prior conviction is for a crime of
    violence.      We then explain the problem with using that same
    approach here, given Serrano's failure to preserve the argument by
    properly raising it below.
    A.
    Ordinarily,   we   use     what   the   precedents   call   a
    "categorical approach" to decide if a defendant's prior felony
    conviction was for a crime of violence.          United States v. Jonas,
    
    689 F.3d 83
    , 86 (1st Cir. 2012).               Under this approach, the
    conviction counts as one for a crime of violence if the elements of
    the conviction fit the guidelines' definition of a crime of
    violence. 
    Id. at 86-87
    . Otherwise, the conviction does not count,
    no matter what the facts show the defendant actually did in
    committing the crime -- even, that is, if those facts show he acted
    violently.    
    Id. at 86
    .
    This focus on the elements of the conviction -- rather
    than the underlying conduct -- fits with the text of the Sentencing
    Guidelines, which makes the base offense level for the felon-in-
    possession offense turn on prior "convictions of . . . a crime of
    -9-
    violence,"     not    on    prior   conduct.           U.S.S.G.        2K2.1(a)(2),(3)
    (emphasis added); see Descamps v. United States, 
    133 S. Ct. 2276
    ,
    2287 (2013).      And this approach also ensures present sentences are
    not based on documents that could be quite old, might be uncertain
    or disputed, and may contain factual allegations the defendant did
    not contest at the time for any of a number of reasons unrelated to
    the accuracy of the allegations.              Descamps, 
    133 S. Ct. at 2289
    .
    In some cases, though, this categorical approach runs
    into   a   potential       obstacle.       That   obstacle            arises    when    the
    conviction    is     for   a   crime    set    forth    in    a       statute    that    is
    "divisible."         A divisible statute is one that "sets out one or
    more elements of the offense in the alternative -- for example,
    stating    that    burglary     involves      entry    into       a    building    or    an
    automobile."       
    Id. at 2281
    .        The problem such a statute poses is
    that these alternative elements may create distinct offenses, each
    of which may or may not itself be a crime of violence.
    To deal with this wrinkle, we employ what the precedents
    call -- not surprisingly -- a "modified categorical approach."
    Under this approach, we look to limited materials, often called
    Shepard documents, from the convicting court, such as charging
    documents, plea agreements, plea colloquies, and jury instructions.
    
    Id. at 2281, 2284
     (relying on Shepard v. United States, 
    544 U.S. 13
    (2005)).     We do so not to determine the conduct the defendant
    engaged in while committing an offense, as such conduct is of no
    -10-
    relevance. We instead inspect these materials in order to identify
    (if   such    identification       is     possible)   the   actual     offense      of
    conviction     from    among   the      distinct    offenses     set   forth   in   a
    divisible statute.       Id. at 2281.
    Once we identify the distinct offense of conviction by
    consulting     the    materials,     we    then    return   to   the   categorical
    approach.      We consider whether the elements of that distinct
    offense meet the definition of a "crime of violence."
    All of which brings us to the final stage in this
    process: the analysis of how the elements of the offense of
    conviction match up with the guidelines' definition of a "crime of
    violence."     A conviction for an offense qualifies as a conviction
    for a crime of violence if the elements of the underlying offense
    satisfy either (or both) of two clauses set forth in the relevant
    guideline and that offense is punishable by more than a year in
    prison.      U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a); see also U.S.S.G. § 2K2.1 cmt. 1
    (cross-referencing the definition in § 4B1.2 to determine the base
    offense level of the felon-in-possession crime).4
    The guideline's first clause provides that a crime of
    violence is "any offense under federal or state law . . . that
    4
    "This definition is nearly identical to the definition of
    a 'violent felony' contained in the Armed Career Criminal Act
    (ACCA), 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (e)(2)(B). Recognizing this resemblance,
    courts consistently have held that decisions construing one of
    these phrases generally inform the construction of the other."
    Jonas, 689 F.3d at 86.
    -11-
    . . . has as an element the use, attempted use, or threatened use
    of physical force against the person of another."              U.S.S.G.
    § 4B1.2(a)(1).       This so-called "force clause" requires that the
    offense of conviction include as an element "violent force," that
    is, "force capable of causing physical pain or injury to another
    person."    Johnson v. United States, 
    559 U.S. 133
    , 140 (2010).      If
    the offense of conviction does not involve the "use, attempted use,
    or threatened use" of such violent physical force -- as may be the
    case with an offense of common-law battery, whose force element can
    "be satisfied by even the slightest offensive touching" -- then
    that offense does not meet the requirements of the force clause.
    
    Id. at 139
    .
    The guideline's second clause provides that a prior
    felony conviction qualifies as a crime of violence if it is for
    "any offense under federal or state law . . . that . . . is
    burglary of a dwelling, arson, or extortion, involves use of
    explosives, or otherwise involves conduct that presents a serious
    potential     risk   of   physical   injury   to   another."   U.S.S.G.
    § 4B1.2(a)(2).       Even if an offense does not fall under the force
    clause, therefore, that offense qualifies as a crime of violence if
    it matches one of these enumerated crimes or otherwise satisfies
    the requirements of the guideline's so-called "residual clause."
    -12-
    B.
    In applying this framework, we begin by noting the
    parties agree that Serrano's 2006 conviction for assault under
    Puerto Rico law does count as a conviction for a crime of violence.
    We also note that Serrano does not dispute that the District Court
    counted the 2005 conviction for domestic violence under Article 3.1
    in finding that Serrano had more than one conviction for a crime of
    violence.   Serrano's challenge to the District Court's use of the
    base offense level of 24 can succeed, therefore, only if Serrano
    can show the District Court erred in counting that Article 3.1
    conviction. Otherwise, there would be at least two such qualifying
    convictions.      We thus now turn to the propriety of the District
    Court's finding on that point.
    The   first     thing   to    note   is    that    Article   3.1   is    a
    divisible statute. It covers "[a]ny person who employs physical
    force or psychological abuse, intimidation or persecution against
    the person of [a domestic partner] . . . to cause physical harm to
    the person, the property held in esteem by him/her, . . . or to
    another's person, or to cause grave emotional harm . . . ."                    
    P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 8, § 631
     (emphasis added).                The statute thus sets
    out multiple constellations of elements in the alternative.                     One
    set of elements requires the use or threat of "physical force."
    The   others      require     "psychological          abuse,    intimidation        or
    persecution."
    -13-
    Faced with such a statute, we ordinarily would apply the
    modified categorical approach. Using that approach, we first would
    try to determine, from the relevant documents, whether Serrano's
    prior conviction under Article 3.1 was for an offense predicated on
    the "physical force" element or instead for an offense predicated
    on the other elements set forth in that statute.       Then, after
    having identified the actual offense of conviction, we would
    determine whether that offense met the guideline's requirements for
    a crime of violence.
    But we are frustrated in doing so here.   Serrano made no
    specific challenge to the pre-sentence report's contention that the
    list of his prior convictions included two felonies that were for
    a crime of violence.   That was so even though that list included a
    conviction under Article 3.1 but did not specify further the
    particular offense under that law that had resulted in that
    conviction.   At sentencing, moreover, the District Court simply
    identified as qualifying convictions the one for assault and the
    two for domestic violence.   Yet Serrano did not complain that the
    District Court, in so finding, did not consult the limited set of
    documents from the court of conviction that would have helped it
    determine the distinct elements of the offense that provided the
    basis for Serrano's actual 2005 conviction under Article 3.1.   In
    consequence, we have no such documents to review as part of the
    record on appeal.
    -14-
    As a legal matter, moreover, Serrano's failure to object
    in the District Court affects the standard of review.              Rather than
    reviewing de novo whether the conviction under Article 3.1 counts
    as a conviction for a crime of violence, see Jonas, 689 F.3d at 86,
    we   may   review     only   for    plain        error,   United   States   v.
    Ríos-Hernández, 
    645 F.3d 456
    , 462 (1st Cir. 2011).                   And that
    standard is strict.     Serrano can satisfy it "if, and only if, [he]
    succeeds in showing '(1) that an error occurred (2) which was clear
    or   obvious   and   which   not   only    (3)    affected   the   defendant's
    substantial rights, but also (4) seriously impaired the fairness,
    integrity, or public reputation of judicial proceedings.'"              United
    States v. Padilla, 
    415 F.3d 211
    , 218 (1st Cir. 2005) (quoting
    United States v. Duarte, 
    246 F.3d 56
    , 60 (1st Cir. 2001)).
    Of course, if it were clear or obvious that none of
    Serrano's prior felony convictions -- save for the 2006 one for
    assault -- could qualify as one for a crime of violence, then the
    defendant's task on appeal might not be so daunting, despite the
    strict standard of review. But because Serrano was convicted under
    Article 3.1, and Article 3.1 is a divisible statute, we could come
    to that conclusion only if we were confident that none of the
    distinct offenses set forth in that law would so qualify.              And, as
    we now explain, we are not of that view, given how we interpret one
    portion of Article 3.1.
    -15-
    C.
    The case for concluding that at least one offense under
    Article 3.1 qualifies as a crime of violence is strong.            Among the
    divisible offenses set forth in that statute is one that covers
    "[a]ny person who employs physical force . . . to cause physical
    harm" to a protected person.        
    P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 8, § 631
    .
    In making physical force an element, the text of Article
    3.1   suggests   that   something    more   than   a   mere   non-consensual
    touching is required to satisfy that element.            Instead, the text
    requires the physical force be intended to "cause physical harm."
    The Puerto Rico Supreme Court has also interpreted the physical-
    force element of Article 3.1.       And consistent with the text, that
    court has construed that element to "prohibit[] . . . physical
    abuse," Pueblo v. Ayala García, 
    186 P.R. Dec. 196
    , 213 (2012)
    (translation provided by stipulation of parties through letter
    under Federal Rule of Appellate Procedure 28(j)), and stated that
    "any degree of force is sufficient to configure the offense if
    . . . employed with the intention of causing some damage," id.; see
    also Pueblo v. Roldán López, 
    158 P.R. Dec. 54
    , 61 (2002).
    Taken together, the text of Article 3.1 and the Puerto
    Rico Supreme Court's interpretation of it strongly suggest the
    statute's physical-force element involves the kind of violent force
    "capable of causing physical pain or injury to another person."
    -16-
    Johnson, 
    559 U.S. at 140
    .5      And that is the kind of force required
    by the crime of violence sentencing guidelines' force clause.                  
    Id.
    To the extent any uncertainty remains, moreover, we do
    not believe it is so great as to make it clear or obvious that the
    physical-force offense set forth in Article 3.1 could not qualify
    as a crime of violence under the guideline.                Yet it is just such a
    clear or obvious exclusion from the guideline that Serrano must
    demonstrate    given     that   our     review        is    for    plain    error.
    Serrano argues, however, that he still should win because
    it is at least possible he was convicted of an offense under
    Article 3.1 that does not qualify as a crime of violence.                  And that
    is because, he contends, that statute is divisible and the elements
    of "psychological abuse, intimidation or persecution" plainly do
    not   set   forth   an   offense   that      is   a    crime      of   violence.
    Serrano rests that fall-back contention on more than his
    assertion that those particular elements, by their plain terms, do
    not require "physical force" or a threat of such force.                    He also
    argues those elements establish distinct offenses that are too
    unlike the other crimes enumerated in the residual clause of the
    5
    We thus need not address whether the physical-force offense
    qualifies as a crime of violence under the guideline's residual
    clause, which sweeps in offenses that "involve[] conduct that
    presents a serious potential risk of physical injury to another."
    U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a)(2).     We note that the Supreme Court has
    recently asked for briefing on the question whether identical
    language in a distinct criminal statute, the Armed Career Criminal
    Act, 
    18 U. S. C. §924
    (e)(2)(B)(ii), is unconstitutionally vague.
    Johnson v. United States, 
    135 S. Ct. 939
     (2015).
    -17-
    crime of violence guideline to be swept up by it.                       Cf. Begay v.
    United   States,      
    553 U.S. 137
    ,    142   (2008)      (holding     that    the
    enumerated crimes preceding the residual clause "illustrate the
    kinds    of   crimes       that    fall    within   the    statute's     scope"     and
    "indicate[] that the statute covers only similar crimes"). Serrano
    then closes out this argument by contending that, without documents
    that show which elements in Article 3.1 supported his actual
    conviction under that law, there is no way to know whether that
    conviction qualifies as one for a crime of violence.                     And, in the
    face of that claimed uncertainty, he argues, it is plain error to
    hold that he was convicted of such a qualifying crime.
    The government responds by arguing that uncertainty about
    what such documents might show is beside the point. The government
    argues    that, in fact, all offenses described in Article 3.1 are
    crimes of violence, or, at least, that we should view them as such
    on   review    for   plain        error.     And    the   government     bases      that
    contention     on    the    residual       clause   of    the   crime   of   violence
    guideline, which, the government contends, encompasses all of those
    offenses.      Or, at least, the government contends, the residual
    clause of the guideline does not clearly or obviously exclude them,
    whether they include the physical-force element or not.
    But we do not need to resolve this dispute over how to
    characterize all parts of Article 3.1.               Because our review is only
    for plain error, it is enough that we have determined that a
    -18-
    conviction under the physical-force element of Article 3.1 would
    likely qualify as a crime of violence.    For as we next explain, our
    precedents show that Serrano may not benefit from having left us
    completely in the dark (through his failure to object below) about
    what the documents relating to the conviction under Article 3.1
    would reveal about whether he was convicted of an offense that
    contains the physical-force element or instead some other offense
    that does not require proof of that element.
    D.
    We confronted a situation very much like this in United
    States v. Turbides-Leonardo, 
    468 F.3d 34
     (1st Cir. 2006).         There,
    the defendant also challenged his sentence on appeal because it
    rested in part on a conviction under a divisible statute, one
    portion of which contained elements that qualified for a guideline
    enhancement -- there, for drug trafficking -- and another of which
    did not.    
    Id. at 37
    .      And there, too, the defendant had not
    challenged either the pre-sentence report's characterization that
    the conviction was for an enhancement-qualifying offense, or the
    district   court's   guideline   calculation   that   tracked   the   pre-
    sentence report.     As a result, there were no records available on
    appeal to show which of the divisible statute's distinct offenses
    was in fact the offense of conviction.     
    Id. at 40
    .
    After finding the defendant's failure to object below, in
    context, actually constituted waiver, 
    id.
     at 38 -- a claim that the
    -19-
    government does not advance here -- we went on to consider in dicta
    whether     the   application      of    the   drug-trafficking    guideline
    enhancement should be reversed under the plain error standard, 
    id. at 38-40
    .     And we concluded it should not. 
    Id.
               We explained the
    District Court committed no error in accepting the unchallenged
    characterization, but that, even if the District Court had erred in
    doing so, reversal was still not justified.           
    Id.
    In consequence of the defendant's failure to object
    below, we explained, "we [we]re left to guess" the "unknown
    variable" of "the contents of the record of the prior conviction."
    
    Id. at 40
    .    And because we were left to guess, "there [wa]s no way
    for the appellant to show a reasonable probability that he would be
    better off from a sentencing standpoint had the district court not
    committed the claimed . . . error."             
    Id.
       For that reason, we
    concluded the defendant could not meet the heightened prejudice
    showing plain error review requires.           
    Id.
    We   then    relied   on   Turbides-Leonardo's    reasoning   in
    holding there to be no prejudice in United States v. Davis, 
    676 F.3d 3
     (1st Cir. 2012), our last binding precedent on the issue.
    In Davis, the defendant challenged his sentence as relying on a
    prior conviction under a divisible assault statute, one portion of
    which defined a crime of violence and another portion of which did
    not.   
    Id. at 7-8
    .       Davis did not object when the prosecutor and the
    pre-sentence report characterized his conviction as qualifying as
    -20-
    a crime of violence, nor did he object when the District Court
    characterized the conviction similarly and relied on it in crafting
    the sentence.      
    Id. at 5-6
    .     And so we reviewed only for plain
    error.
    We held that, whether or not the District Court clearly
    erred by not demanding the documents of conviction before making
    the crime-of-violence determination, the defendant bore the burden
    of showing "a reasonable probability that, but for the error, the
    district court would have imposed a different, more favorable
    sentence."    
    Id. at 10
     (quoting Turbides–Leonardo, 
    468 F.3d at 39
    ).
    We then held, relying expressly on Turbides-Leonardo's reasoning
    about the need to show prejudice, that the defendant did not
    satisfy that burden because he failed to point to any reason to
    conclude that an examination of the documents would indicate the
    conviction was for an offense that does not qualify as a crime of
    violence.    
    Id.
    Here, just like in Davis, the District Court had before
    it a pre-sentence report that claimed the defendant had a second
    prior conviction that qualified for the guideline enhancement. And
    yet, again, like in Davis, the defendant did not contest that
    representation,    even   though   the    defendant   informed   the   judge
    through counsel that he had reviewed the pre-sentence report
    containing that information.
    -21-
    Indeed, although the defendant made a general objection
    to the probation office regarding the total offense level used in
    the first version of the pre-sentence report, the record does not
    indicate that Serrano raised a more specific objection to the
    probation office regarding the base offense level and the number of
    his prior convictions for a crime of violence.             And, the record
    further shows, he failed to do so even after the office clearly
    explained its view that Serrano had two such prior convictions.
    Nor   did   the   defendant    raise   an   objection   in   his
    sentencing memorandum, or inform the District Court at sentencing
    that it believed it had erred in concluding -- as it plainly stated
    in announcing the sentence --          that, in addition to the 2006
    conviction for assault, there was another qualifying conviction
    that was for domestic violence.            The District Court thus had no
    Shepard documents before it -- nor any request that it obtain and
    review such documents -- that might cast doubt on either the pre-
    sentence report's assertion that the enhancement applied or on the
    defendant's apparent agreement with that assertion.           Accordingly,
    we have no such Shepard documents before us now.              And thus, as
    Davis   --    by   incorporating    Turbides-Leonardo's      reasoning     --
    instructs,     we have no basis for concluding it is reasonably
    probable that those documents would show Serrano was convicted of
    an offense under Article 3.1 that would not qualify as a crime of
    violence.
    -22-
    In fact, even now, on appeal, Serrano still does not
    assert he was not convicted under Article 3.1 of the offense
    involving physical force, nor does he request to supplement the
    record to include the appropriate documents of conviction on the
    ground that they would redound to his benefit.          See United States
    v.   Zubia-Torres,    
    550 F.3d 1202
    ,   1209   n.3   (10th   Cir.   2008)
    (declining to consider "the effect if counsel had proffered the
    relevant documents on appeal"). He contends only that it cannot be
    certain on this record whether he was so convicted and that, in any
    event, the "physical force" offense clearly or obviously does not
    qualify -- a contention we have already rejected.
    Therefore, as in Turbides-Leonardo and Davis, we conclude
    Serrano has not shown the necessary prejudice, even assuming the
    District Court erred in not independently seeking out the records
    of conviction.6      This conclusion comports with the decisions of
    6
    Because we rely on the defendant's failure to show the
    necessary prejudice in this case, we need not address whether it
    was clear and obvious error for the District Court to fail sua
    sponte to demand and evaluate documents relating to the conviction.
    Other circuits have addressed this issue. Compare United States v.
    Aviles-Solarzano, 
    623 F.3d 470
    , 475 (7th Cir. 2010) (characterizing
    lack of objection as factual stipulation, and finding no error),
    with, e.g., United States v. Castillo-Marin, 
    684 F.3d 914
    , 921 (9th
    Cir. 2012) (finding clear and obvious error). We have held that a
    failure to demand and evaluate such documents was not clear and
    obvious error where the defendant not only failed to object but
    also "apparent[ly] acquiesce[d]" in his sentencing memorandum "to
    the characterization of the prior convictions as crimes of
    violence" by stating that he "technically qualifies" for the
    enhancement. Ríos-Hernández, 
    645 F.3d at 463
    . But we held that it
    was clear and obvious error in the circumstances addressed by
    United States v. Torres-Rosario, 
    658 F.3d 116
     (1st Cir. 2011), and
    -23-
    several   sister   circuits   in   similar   plain-error   cases.   See
    Zubia-Torres, 
    550 F.3d at 1208-10
    ; United States v. Williams, 
    358 F.3d 956
    , 966-67 (D.C. Cir. 2004); United States v. Ransom, 
    502 F. App'x 196
    , 198-201 (3d Cir. 2012) (unpublished).      And while we are
    aware that other circuits have vacated sentences and remanded after
    finding plain error in arguably analogous circumstances, they did
    not, in so doing, address the lack-of-prejudice argument that the
    other circuits just mentioned have relied upon and that Davis
    requires us to find determinative here.          See United States v.
    Reyes, 
    691 F.3d 453
    , 460 (2nd Cir. 2012) (concluding, without
    explanation, that the district court's failure to sua sponte
    investigate the documents of conviction led to an erroneously
    elevated offense level); United States v. Castillo-Marin, 
    684 F.3d 914
    , 927 (9th Cir. 2012) (same); United States v. Pearson, 
    553 F.3d 1183
    , 1186 (8th Cir. 2009) (same), partially overruled on other
    grounds by United States v. Tucker, 
    740 F.3d 1177
    , 1184 (8th Cir.
    2014); United States v. Bonilla-Mungia, 
    422 F.3d 316
    , 321 (5th Cir.
    2005) (vacating and remanding without discussing prejudice).
    We do not say, however, that there are no circumstances
    in which reversal in a related case, involving different facts,
    we came to a similar conclusion in dicta in our recent opinion in
    United States v. Ramos-González, 
    775 F.3d 483
    , 507 (1st Cir. 2015),
    on which Serrano relies. We note that we also suggested in Ramos
    that we would have found prejudice to the defendant, but in doing
    so we did not address the contrary holding on that point of Davis
    (based on the reasoning of Turbides-Leonardo), 
    id.,
     which, as we
    have explained, controls this case.
    -24-
    might be warranted.       In United States v. Torres-Rosario, 
    658 F.3d 110
       (1st    Cir.    2011),    we   held   the     District    Court    committed
    prejudicial plain error in characterizing the conviction at issue
    in that case as a crime of violence, 
    id. at 116
    .                But there, under
    First Circuit precedent, binding at the time of sentencing, it was
    clear from the charging documents in the record that the conviction
    qualified categorically as a crime of violence.                
    Id. at 115
    .     The
    defendant thus understandably did not contest the characterization
    or assert that the other documents of conviction would be relevant
    to whether the conviction was in fact qualifying, and indeed
    stipulated that his convictions qualified.                 
    Id. at 115-16
    .
    By the time of the appeal, however, the First Circuit had
    changed course in response to a recent case from the Supreme Court.
    We had made clear that the type of conviction at issue did not
    necessarily qualify categorically as a crime of violence and,
    therefore, that further inquiry into the documents of conviction
    under the modified categorical approach would be appropriate.                  
    Id. at 115
    .      For that reason, the un-objected-to characterization of
    the conviction in Torres-Rosario could not have been understood as
    an unchallenged agreement to a factual characterization of the
    conviction.
    Here, by contrast, as in Turbides-Leonardo, no First
    Circuit precedent, later overruled, established at the time of
    sentencing     that    the     conviction     for    the    underlying     offense
    -25-
    categorically qualified as a crime of violence.                         And so the
    defendant's failure to contest the pre-sentence report's and the
    District Court's characterization of those prior convictions is, as
    Davis held in applying Turbides-Leonardo, key to our assessment
    that he has not met his burden of showing prejudice.                       And while
    Davis is itself a case with facts like Torres-Rosario, that does
    not make its express adoption of Turbides-Leonardo's prejudice
    analysis any less controlling in a case like this one, which
    mirrors the facts in Turbides-Leonardo rather the facts in Torres-
    Rosario.     We thus do not address how Davis and Torres-Rosario's
    analysis of the prejudice issue should be reconciled in a case
    presenting the distinct facts presented in those cases.
    III.
    Under    the     Sentencing       Guidelines,    the    offense       level
    increases by four points if the firearm involved in a felon-in-
    possession       conviction    "had    an   altered    or   obliterated          serial
    number."     U.S.S.G. § 2K2.1(b)(4)(B).               Serrano's pistol had an
    obliterated serial number on the frame and an unaltered serial
    number on the slide.           The District Court therefore applied the
    four-point serial-number enhancement.
    Serrano argues, however, that the District Court erred
    because    the    serial     number,   though     obliterated      in   one      place,
    remained unaltered elsewhere on the gun.                   He contends that the
    guideline    could     not     have    been     intended    to     apply    in     such
    -26-
    circumstance because the serial number itself remains perfectly
    visible, albeit in only one place rather than two.
    Whether Guideline § 2K2.1(b)(4)(B)'s four-point serial-
    number enhancement may apply in this type of case is a question of
    law (and, apparently, a question of first impression).       Because
    Serrano properly preserved this argument below, our review is de
    novo.   See United States v. Maldonado, 
    614 F.3d 14
    , 17 n.1 (1st
    Cir. 2010) ("Abstract legal issues under the          guidelines are
    reviewed de novo . . . .").
    Like the District Court, we conclude the enhancement does
    apply in Serrano's case.   The text of the guideline requires only
    "an     altered   or   obliterated      serial   number,"    U.S.S.G.
    § 2K2.1(b)(4)(B) (emphasis added).      The guideline's text does not
    require that all of the gun's serial numbers be so affected.      And
    here, the complete defacement of the serial number on the frame of
    the firearm resulted in the required obliteration.
    Moreover, this plain reading of the text -- that the
    obliteration of "a[]" serial number is enough -- accords with the
    intent of Guideline § 2K2.1(b)(4), which is "to 'discourag[e] the
    use of untraceable weaponry.'"    United States v. Carter, 
    421 F.3d 909
    , 914 (9th Cir. 2005) (alteration in original) (quoting United
    States v. Seesing, 
    234 F.3d 456
    , 460 (9th Cir. 2001)). Applying an
    enhancement for firearms that have a single totally obscured serial
    number may serve as a deterrent to tampering, even when incomplete.
    -27-
    And, relatedly, the single-obliteration rule could facilitate
    tracking each component that bears a serial number, given that
    various parts of firearms may be severable.
    And precedent is not to the contrary.          We have held the
    mere alteration of a serial number violates 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (k), a
    related criminal statute, without regard to whether such alteration
    is severe enough to prevent that same serial number from being
    read, United States v. Adams, 
    305 F.3d 30
    , 34 (1st Cir. 2002); see
    also Carter, 
    421 F.3d at 915-16
     (applying Adams to interpret
    Guideline § 2K2.1(b)(4)(B)). So, too, we conclude the text of this
    guideline is best construed -- consistent with the plain meaning of
    its words -- to trigger the enhancement when the serial number on
    the frame of a firearm is obliterated even if other serial numbers
    on the firearm, like the one left intact on the slide of this
    weapon, are unaltered.7   We thus do not believe the District Court
    erred in applying the four-point enhancement.
    IV.
    For   these   reasons,    we    affirm   the   District   Court's
    sentence against the challenges raised in this appeal.
    -Concurring Opinion Follows-
    7
    We do not need to reach the further issue whether the
    guideline would apply if the serial number on the frame were
    unaltered but a serial number on the slide or other part of the
    firearm were altered or obliterated.      See United States v.
    Romero-Martinez, 
    443 F.3d 1185
     (9th Cir. 2006) (holding the
    guideline applicable in such a case).
    -28-
    LIPEZ, Circuit Judge, concurring.             A defendant whose
    sentence is enhanced because of violent crimes he committed in the
    past will face substantially more time in prison than someone
    without   a    record   of   violence.      Although    I    do   not   question
    sentencing     enhancements    for   defendants    with     violent     criminal
    histories, we must ensure that aggravated penalties are imposed
    only when the criminal histories justify them.                Here, appellant
    challenges the district court's unsupported assumption that his
    conviction under a "divisible" statute was in fact for a crime of
    violence.       I reluctantly agree with my colleagues that First
    Circuit   precedent     requires     us   to   reject   appellant's       claim.
    However, our case law on how to evaluate plain error in this
    context is inconsistent, and it cannot be reconciled with the
    Supreme Court's decision in Shepard v. United States, 
    544 U.S. 13
    (2005).   I therefore urge our court to rehear this case en banc so
    that we may closely examine, and fairly resolve, an important and
    complex question of law: how does the government's burden to
    establish that a conviction under a divisible statute qualifies as
    a predicate offense intersect with a defendant's burden to show
    plain error?
    Under the analysis described in the majority opinion,
    appellant can satisfy the prejudice prong of the plain error test
    only if he proves that, but for the sentencing court's improper
    reliance on his Article 3.1 conviction, it is reasonably probable
    -29-
    that he would have received a lesser sentence.                   As a practical
    matter, that approach switches to defendants the obligation the
    Supreme Court imposed on the government to produce specific court
    records    proving   that   a   conviction      under    a    divisible    statute
    qualifies as a predicate offense.               In so doing, the approach
    creates a real risk of longer prison terms than are justified by
    defendants' criminal histories. As other circuits have recognized,
    however, that potential harm can be easily avoided, with minimal
    burden on the sentencing court.         When the court erroneously relies
    on a conviction whose character cannot be determined without
    Shepard-approved     documents,    the       defendant's      sentence     must   be
    vacated and the case remanded for resentencing.                  The government
    will then ordinarily have the opportunity to substantiate that the
    conviction was for an offense that qualifies as a predicate for
    enhancement.      If the government cannot do so, the enhancement is
    impermissible.
    As I explain below, this modest relief follows as a
    matter of logic and fairness from correct application of the plain
    error test in this context.       Indeed, with a full understanding of
    the underlying principles, one can only conclude that the prejudice
    analysis articulated in our precedent -- requiring the defendant to
    disprove    his   eligibility     for    a    sentence       enhancement    --    is
    misguided. Our court should convene en banc to remedy this serious
    problem.
    -30-
    I.
    A. Legal Background
    As my colleagues explain well, when a court seeks to
    enhance a defendant's sentence based on a prior conviction under a
    "divisible"   statute   --   i.e.,   where   the   statute   criminalizes
    different types of conduct, only some of which may support the
    enhancement -- the court applies the so-called modified categorical
    approach to determine which version of the crime underlies the
    defendant's conviction.      Descamps v. United States, 
    133 S. Ct. 2276
    , 2283-84 (2013); see also United States v. Ramos-González, 
    775 F.3d 483
    , 505 (1st Cir. 2015) (describing a "divisible statute" as
    one that "sets forth one or more elements of a particular offense
    in the alternative" (quoting United States v. Fish, 
    758 F.3d 1
    , 6
    (1st Cir. 2014)).     Frequently, as in this case, the enhancement
    depends on whether the challenged prior conviction was for a "crime
    of violence."8   See, e.g., Ramos-González, 775 F.3d at 504-05.        If
    a statute criminalizes both violent and non-violent conduct, "the
    sentencing court is permitted to consult a limited set of 'approved
    records' to determine which . . . provided the basis for the
    conviction." Id. at 505 (quoting United States v. Carter, 
    752 F.3d 8
    An offense qualifies as a crime of violence if it is
    punishable by more than one year of imprisonment and either "(1)
    has as an element the use, attempted use, or threatened use of
    physical force against the person of another," or (2) is one of
    several enumerated crimes not relevant here, "or otherwise involves
    conduct that presents a serious potential risk of physical injury
    to another." U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a).
    -31-
    8, 19 (1st Cir. 2014)).        The permissible records consist primarily
    of   charging   documents,      plea   agreements,   transcripts      of   plea
    colloquies, jury instructions, and verdict forms.              Id.; see also
    Shepard, 
    544 U.S. at 26
     (describing the acceptable records, often
    described as "Shepard materials").            If the records show that the
    defendant was not convicted of a crime containing the requisite
    elements of violence -- or if the records do not reveal the nature
    of the crime -- the conviction may not be used to enhance his
    current federal sentence.        See United States v. Dávila-Félix, 
    667 F.3d 47
    , 57 (1st Cir. 2011).
    At sentencing, the burden to produce the documents that
    reveal (or not) the nature of the proffered conviction is on the
    government.     Dávila-Félix, 667 F.3d at 55 ("The Government bears
    the burden of establishing that a prior conviction qualifies as a
    predicate offense for sentencing enhancement purposes.").              Hence,
    if   the   government   does    not    demonstrate   that    the   defendant's
    conviction was for a variant of the crime that satisfies the crime-
    of-violence definition, it is error for the court to treat that
    conviction as a predicate for sentencing enhancement purposes.
    This is so whether the documents show the crime to be of the non-
    violent type or if the documents do not reveal the particular
    version of the crime underlying the conviction.             See United States
    v. Davis, 
    676 F.3d 3
    , 8 (1st Cir. 2012) ("If, after examination of
    these permissible documents, 'it is impossible to tell whether the
    -32-
    defendant was convicted of a violent or non-violent offense,' the
    conviction may not serve as a predicate offense." (quoting United
    States v. Holloway, 
    630 F.3d 252
    , 257 (1st Cir. 2011)).
    The complexity arises if the defendant fails to challenge
    the sentencing court's reliance on such a conviction, and raises an
    objection for the first time on appeal.   We treat such a claim as
    forfeited and give it only plain error review.9         Under that
    standard, the defendant "bear[s] the 'heavy burden' of showing that
    the error was clear or obvious, and that it both affected his
    substantial rights and 'seriously impaired the fairness, integrity,
    or public reputation of judicial proceedings.'"    Ramos-González,
    775 F.3d at 499 (quoting United States v. Ramos-Mejía, 
    721 F.3d 12
    ,
    14 (1st Cir. 2013)).
    To perform this inquiry, we need to identify the "error"
    before we can determine if it is clear or obvious, and prejudicial.
    Focusing on the Puerto Rico statute under which the defendant was
    convicted, my colleagues explain that we may find plain error only
    9
    Although the terms "waiver" and "forfeiture" are sometimes
    used interchangeably, "[w]hether an objection has been waived or
    simply forfeited affects the scope of our appellate review."
    United States v. Gaffney-Kessell, 
    772 F.3d 97
    , 100 (1st Cir. 2014).
    Waiver occurs when a litigant intentionally relinquishes or
    abandons a known right, and we ordinarily will not consider a
    waived issue on appeal. 
    Id.
     (citing United States v. Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    , 733 (1993)). Forfeiture refers to "a 'failure to make
    the timely assertion of a right.'" 
    Id.
     (citing Olano, 
    507 U.S. at 733
    ). "A forfeited issue still may be reviewed on appeal, albeit
    for plain error."      
    Id.
       This distinction is important and
    consequential in cases like the one before us.
    -33-
    if we are "confident that none of the distinct offenses set forth
    in that law" would qualify as a crime of violence.               Slip op. at 16.
    Otherwise,    they   say,     an   error    in   using   the   conviction   as   a
    predicate for enhancement would not be clear or obvious. Moreover,
    drawing on our precedents, they conclude that the defendant cannot
    satisfy the prejudice prong of the plain error inquiry unless he
    shows "'a reasonable probability that, but for the error, the
    district court would have imposed a different, more favorable
    sentence.'"    Slip op. at 21 (quoting Davis, 676 F.3d at 10, which
    in turn quoted United States v. Turbides-Leonardo, 
    468 F.3d 34
    , 39
    (1st Cir. 2006)).       To accomplish this showing of prejudice, the
    defendant, in effect, is required to produce Shepard materials
    revealing that his conviction was for a non-violent offense.
    The animating principle of the modified categorical
    approach, however, is that enhanced sentencing is improper unless
    the   government     proves    that   the    defendant's       criminal   history
    justifies    such    severe    punishment.         Error   occurs,   therefore,
    whenever a sentencing court increases a term of imprisonment based
    on a predicate conviction under a divisible statute in the absence
    of Shepard-approved proof that the conviction was for a qualifying
    variant of the crime.         For that reason, the defendant's burden in
    the trial court is simply to note the absence of proof, not to
    proffer the supporting documents to disprove his eligibility for an
    enhancement.     Under the approach my colleagues draw from prior
    -34-
    cases, Serrano's failure to make that simple objection to the lack
    of proof transferred the duty of production to him on plain error
    review.10
    Although my colleagues understandably follow a path set
    out in prior cases, this dramatic shift of responsibility is unfair
    and wrong.      I therefore first review why I view our precedent as
    flawed    and   incompatible   with   Supreme   Court   precedent   before
    elaborating on what I believe is the proper analysis.
    B. The Varying Paths of our Prior Cases
    Our cases do not present a uniform approach for analyzing
    plain error in the context of a claim that the district court
    improperly lengthened a sentence based on the defendant's prior
    conviction under a divisible statute.       In some instances, we have
    held the government accountable for the absence of evidence in the
    record.     See, e.g., Ramos-González, 775 F.3d at 506-08 (vacating
    sentence that included career offender status because the records
    submitted by the government did not show the nature of defendant's
    conviction under a divisible statute); Dávila-Félix, 667 F.3d at 57
    (concluding that, "on the record before us, the Government has not
    met its burden of proving that [defendant's] prior drug conviction
    qualified as a career offender predicate"); United States v.
    Torres-Rosario, 
    658 F.3d 110
    , 117 (1st Cir. 2011) (noting that,
    10
    Likewise, even if a defendant insists that the crime of
    conviction is not a crime of violence, he does not have to prove
    that assertion.
    -35-
    "[o]n remand, the government remains entitled to establish the
    [basis for the sentencing enhancement] by showing that one of the
    assault and battery convictions was a crime of violence" (citation
    omitted)). In the latter two cases, however, the courts identified
    reasons why the defendants understandably failed to make an earlier
    challenge to the depiction of their convictions as qualifying
    predicates, thereby articulating justifications for remanding the
    case for resentencing notwithstanding the defendant's heavy burden
    on plain error review.11   In Ramos-González, the government already
    had had multiple opportunities to prove career-offender status, and
    the panel declined to give the government a third chance. 775 F.3d
    at 508.
    In other cases involving divisible statutes, panels of
    this court have held the defendants accountable for the absence of
    supporting documents in the record despite the government's burden
    to produce such records.      See, e.g., Davis, 676 F.3d at 9-10;
    Turbides-Leonardo, 
    468 F.3d at 39-40
    .    In these cases, the panels
    bypassed explicit identification of the error and -- ostensibly
    addressing the prejudice prong of the plain error standard --
    articulated the requirement relied on by my colleagues: a defendant
    11
    In Dávila-Félix, the court noted that the drug convictions
    at issue "were only briefly referenced and were not discussed or
    relied upon at sentencing." 667 F.3d at 57. In Torres-Rosario,
    the panel excused a concession that the defendant fell within the
    armed career criminal statute (an arguable waiver) because of a
    change in First Circuit law prompted by new Supreme Court
    precedent. See 
    658 F.3d at 116
    .
    -36-
    must show that, absent the error, he probably would have received
    a shorter sentence. Davis, 676 F.3d at 10; Turbides-Leonardo, 
    468 F.3d at 39
    .
    As I explain below, the failure to confront the nature of
    the error is a threshold flaw in the Turbides-Leonardo and Davis
    assessments   of   plain   error,    and     the   mistake   results   in   a
    misdirected   prejudice analysis.      As my colleagues recognize, the
    plain error analysis in Turbides-Leonardo was dicta, given the
    panel's statement that, "[a]ll things considered, we think that
    what transpired here amounted to waiver."            
    468 F.3d at 38
    .12      In
    Davis, the panel followed the Turbides-Leonardo dicta without
    analyzing its legal foundation, perhaps because the defendant's
    conduct there manifested waiver.13         Davis complained that he should
    not be sentenced as a career offender, but he never argued that
    12
    In my view, the circumstances described in Turbides-Leonardo
    do not show waiver. Waiver should be reserved for cases in which
    the defendant explicitly agrees that particular listed crimes
    qualify as predicates, and it should not be inferred from silence.
    See Torres-Rosario, 
    658 F.3d at 116
     ("At least where a party makes
    an explicit and specific concession, practical reasons favor
    holding a party to such a concession . . . .").        In Turbides-
    Leonardo, the defendant simply failed to object, both to the
    Presentence Investigation Report ("PSR") and at sentencing, which
    is forfeiture.   See 
    468 F.3d at 37
    .     Nonetheless, the decision
    incorporates an assumption that waiver occurred, and I will do
    likewise. In the case now before us, Serrano did object to the
    PSR's guidelines calculation, albeit on other grounds.          The
    government does not argue waiver, and I agree that Serrano's
    failure to object specifically on the predicate-crime issue is
    properly characterized as forfeiture.
    13
    Indeed, the scenario in Davis is more aptly labeled a waiver
    than were the circumstances described in Turbides-Leonardo.
    -37-
    career-offender status was improper because the district court
    failed   to    determine   the   nature   of   the   pertinent   predicate
    conviction.     See 676 F.3d at 6 n.2, 7, 10 n.7.      In fact, appellate
    counsel twice sought to withdraw on the ground that he "'could not
    discern a non-frivolous basis for appeal.'"          Id. at 6 n.2 (quoting
    counsel's brief).      The panel refused those requests and directed
    counsel to address the plain error standard. Counsel, however, did
    not submit briefing on plain error and, "when questioned at oral
    argument regarding any potential prejudice to Davis based on the
    district court's failure to undertake the categorical approach or
    to examine the character of Davis's 2006 assault and battery
    conviction, Davis's counsel could not point to any."             Id. at 10
    n.7.
    In these circumstances, I can understand how the Davis
    panel came to rely on the Turbides-Leonardo approach to plain error
    without closely examining it or explicitly acknowledging it as
    dicta.   Treating Davis's claim as forfeited rather than waived was
    generous and, given that Davis did not raise the district court's
    failure to apply the modified categorical approach even on appeal,
    the panel had no reason to probe deeply into the Turbides-Leonardo
    articulation of the inquiry.      Here, by contrast, Serrano develops
    his claim that the district court erred by counting his domestic
    violence offense as a predicate crime of violence, asserting, inter
    alia, that some crimes under Article 3.1 "clearly do not involve
    -38-
    the use of violent force."    Br. at 23.      Nonetheless, because Davis
    applies the plain error test to a scenario it labels as forfeiture,
    it appears to be binding precedent on the application of the plain
    error test where, as here, there are no distinguishing facts like
    those in Ramos-González, Dávila-Félix, or Torres-Rosario.
    The fact remains, however, that our cases fail to deal
    consistently with the government's initial burden of proof in the
    plain error context.   Where the government was required to retain
    the burden to prove the nature of the defendant's conviction, the
    courts relied on particular circumstances -- a change in the law,
    the convictions' non-essential role in the prior sentencing, or the
    government's multiple prior attempts -- to explain the defendants'
    default or find the burden unmet.         In the two instances where the
    burden was switched from the government to the defendant, the
    courts   dealt   explicitly   or    de     facto   with   an   intentional
    relinquishment of the defendant's rights -- a waiver -- and avoided
    the question of what error the court committed.                We have not
    examined how, or if, these cases may be reconciled with each other
    and whether they achieve the objectives of the modified categorical
    approach. Furthermore, the uneven treatment within our own circuit
    is reflected in a conflict among the circuits.            Compare, e.g.,
    United States v. Dantzler, 
    771 F.3d 137
    , 149 (2d Cir. 2014) ("The
    absence of an objection will not relieve the Government of its
    burden of proving through Taylor- and Shepard-approved sources that
    -39-
    the ACCA enhancement applies."), with, e.g., United States v.
    Zubia-Torres, 
    550 F.3d 1202
    , 1209 (10th Cir. 2008) ("By failing to
    present any evidence that relevant documents would indicate his
    conviction was not for [a qualifying predicate offense], the
    defendant has failed to meet his burden under the third prong of
    plain error review.").
    In sum, we lack a thoughtful, uniform analysis for
    assessing plain error when a defendant claims that his sentencing
    enhancement was improperly based on an unexamined conviction under
    a   divisible   statute.   Our   court,   en    banc,   should   take   the
    opportunity to develop such an analysis in this case.
    C. The Correct Approach
    To properly conduct the plain error inquiry, a court must
    have a correct understanding of the error at issue.         As described
    above, some of our cases have sidestepped the question of error to
    focus on the question of prejudice.       In so doing, however, those
    courts performed an analysis premised on a misidentification of the
    error, which leads them to cast aside the government's burden of
    proving the basis for an enhancement.          In Turbides-Leonardo and
    Davis, the panels focus on the enhanced sentence, and consequently
    evaluate prejudice by asking the usual question we ask when
    sentences are reviewed for plain error: is it reasonably probable
    that, but for the error, the defendant would have received a lower
    sentence?    The length of the sentence -- though ultimately our
    -40-
    concern -- is not the "plain" error.         Because the government
    initially bears the burden to prove that a conviction represents a
    crime of violence, Dávila-Félix, 667 F.3d at 55, the error occurs
    when the district court enhances a sentence based on a prior
    conviction under a divisible statute without first confirming that
    the conviction qualifies as a predicate offense. That confirmation
    may be achieved in various ways: through documentary evidence
    (i.e., the Shepard materials), by concession of the defendant, or
    by means of an interpretation of the predicate criminal statute --
    i.e., a legal ruling by the court -- that every variant of the
    offense qualifies as a crime of violence.
    Here, where the statute on its face appears to encompass
    alternatives that neither involve physical force against a person
    nor present a "serious potential risk of physical injury to
    another," U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a),14 the court erred by using the
    conviction to enhance Serrano's sentence without demanding proof
    from the government that the defendant's conviction was for a
    violent version of the divisible crime.      It is possible that the
    enhancement is also erroneous because the conviction at issue was
    not, in fact, a crime of violence.    But to find that the sentencing
    14
    Article 3.1 applies to "[a]ny person who employs physical
    force or psychological abuse, intimidation or persecution against
    the person of [a domestic partner] . . . to cause physical harm to
    the person, the property held in esteem by him/her, . . . or to
    another's person, or to cause grave emotional harm . . . ." 
    P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 8, § 631
    .
    -41-
    judge erred in applying the modified categorical approach, an
    appellate court need not reach the nature of the conviction. Error
    has   occurred     when    the   court   relies   on   a   conviction   under   a
    divisible statute without confirming, through approved sources
    provided by the government, that the conviction represents a crime
    of violence.15
    The failure to recognize this error is what led the
    Turbides-Leonardo panel astray.             Its approach looks beyond the
    district court's erroneous reliance on an unelaborated conviction
    under a divisible statute and asks whether the defendant has shown
    that the proper analysis would have revealed that the conviction
    was erroneously used as a predicate for enhancement.               Even if the
    district court had performed the proper analysis, however --
    involving the scrutiny of Shepard-approved documents -- the inquiry
    may   not   have    shed    light   on    the   predicate   conviction.     The
    government may not have been able to produce appropriate records of
    the targeted conviction -- the documents may be inaccessible or no
    longer exist, meaning that the conviction could not be used to
    15
    I address in this concurrence only the treatment of
    predicate convictions under a divisible statute, where the statute
    on its face provides notice to the government and the court that a
    conviction is unusable as a predicate offense without further
    inquiry under the modified categorical approach. I therefore do
    not consider the nature of plain error review for challenges to
    predicate convictions under "'indivisible' statute[s]." Descamps,
    
    133 S. Ct. at 2281
    ; 
    id. at 2282
     (holding that "sentencing courts
    may not apply the modified categorical approach when the crime of
    which the defendant was convicted has a single, indivisible set of
    elements").
    -42-
    enhance the defendant's sentence.          Hence, by focusing on the
    possibility that the defendant was convicted of a qualifying crime,
    and requiring him to prove that he was not, we unfairly leap over
    the   threshold   analytical   error,    i.e.,   the   sentencing   court's
    failure to require the government to establish the nature of the
    conviction through approved sources.
    If that error were properly acknowledged, the plain error
    analysis here would unfold unequivocally in the defendant's favor.
    Given the broad language of Article 3.1, and the dearth of evidence
    indicating whether the defendant was convicted of a crime of
    violence, the court's error in relying on the unexamined conviction
    was sufficiently "plain" to satisfy the second prong.          The gap in
    the record should have been obvious to the court.           The remaining
    two elements are equally straightforward.        A defendant inescapably
    suffers prejudice when he receives an extended term of imprisonment
    without the evidentiary support necessary to justify it,16 and an
    16
    In the career offender context, the error technically
    results in an elevated base offense level, which can be presumed to
    lead the district court to impose a longer sentence than would
    otherwise apply. See Turbides-Leonardo, 
    468 F.3d at 37
     (noting
    that a lower Guidelines sentencing range "presumably [will result
    in] a more lenient sentence"). In the context of the Armed Career
    Criminal Act ("ACCA"), the erroneous reliance on predicate
    convictions may trigger improper mandatory minimum sentences. See,
    e.g., Shepard, 
    544 U.S. at 15
     (noting that the ACCA mandates a
    minimum 15-year sentence after three convictions for serious drug
    offenses or violent felonies). We have long treated precedent on
    the ACCA and the Guidelines career offender enhancement
    interchangeably with respect to the modified categorical approach.
    Ramos-González, 775 F.3d at 504 n.24.
    -43-
    unsupported, prolonged incarceration must be deemed a miscarriage
    of justice.    See Ramos-González, 775 F.3d at 507 & n.29; Torres-
    Rosario, 
    658 F.3d at 117
    .17
    Admittedly, this plain error analysis has the feel of
    allowing the defendant to escape with little disadvantage from his
    failure to make a timely objection.    All four prongs of the plain
    error inquiry effectively turn on the finding that the error was
    plain, and the error will almost always be plain when there are no
    supporting documents in the record.      Importantly, however, the
    typical remedy for a finding of prejudicial plain error in this
    context is simply a remand for development of the sentencing
    record.    In many instances, the government on remand will be able
    to produce the necessary documents to substantiate the qualifying
    predicate offense, and the defendant's "victory" will be short-
    lived.    This is the approach taken by a number of   circuits.   See,
    e.g., United States v. Reyes, 
    691 F.3d 453
    , 459-60 (2d Cir. 2012)
    (per curiam) (finding plain error requiring remand where the
    district court relies on the PSR to characterize an offense as a
    "crime of violence," "even where the defendant does not object to
    the PSR's description"); United States v. Castillo-Marin, 
    684 F.3d 914
    , 919, 927 (9th Cir. 2012) (same); United States v. Boykin, 669
    17
    My discussion presumes that the defendant's PSR does not
    list other predicates that categorically qualify as crimes of
    violence and could be substituted for the one on which the district
    court erroneously relied. The prejudice assessment obviously would
    be different if that were the situation.
    -44-
    F.3d 467, 469-72 (4th Cir. 2012) (finding plain error and remanding
    for resentencing where the district court relied on the PSR to
    conclude that the defendant had the requisite number of violent
    felonies for ACCA enhancement); United States v. McCann, 
    613 F.3d 486
    , 502 (5th Cir. 2010) ("When a court . . . relies on the PSR
    alone [to characterize an offense as a crime of violence], it makes
    an error that is clear and obvious.").
    Moreover, we must acknowledge the potentially severe
    consequences of using prior convictions improperly -- substantially
    prolonged terms of incarceration.18        Undoubtedly, that harsh impact
    underlies the Supreme Court's carefully circumscribed list of
    acceptable    records   for   confirming    that   a   conviction   under   a
    divisible statute may be used to enhance a sentence.           At the same
    time, it is an unfortunate reality that many claims such as
    Serrano's come to us on plain error review.            Criminal defendants
    often must rely on court-appointed counsel who, faced with a myriad
    of trial and sentencing issues, predictably overlook some of them.
    18
    For example, in Shepard, which involved the ACCA, the
    government stated that Shepard's prior convictions "raised his
    sentencing range from between 30 and 37 months (under the United
    States Sentencing Guidelines) to the 15-year minimum required by
    [the statute]." 
    544 U.S. at 16
    . In United States v. Martin, 
    749 F.3d 87
     (1st Cir. 2014), we described as "significant" the
    difference in sentence between career offender status and non-
    career offender status: a career offender range of 188 to 235
    months compared with an otherwise applicable sentencing range of 27
    to 33 months.    
    Id. at 91
    .     See also, e.g., United States v.
    Castillo-Marin, 
    684 F.3d 914
    , 927 (9th Cir. 2012) (comparing
    Guidelines range of 46-57 months with enhancement based on crime of
    violence to range of 0-6 months absent the enhancement).
    -45-
    The extremely high hurdle to post-conviction relief based on
    ineffective assistance of counsel means that such a remedy is
    uncertain at best.
    In short, there is simply no reason to apply plain error
    in a way that will leave intact lengthy, possibly unjustified terms
    of   imprisonment    when     the   cost    of   ensuring    fairness    --   a
    resentencing    proceeding     --   is     minimal.     We   should     not   be
    uncomfortable    with    an   "easy"     showing   of   plain   error,    even
    recognizing the high bar that the plain error standard ordinarily
    represents.     Indeed, the fourth prong of the plain error test
    requires us to consider "'the fairness, integrity, or public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.'"            United States v. Mercado,
    
    777 F.3d 532
    , 536 (1st Cir. 2015) (quoting United States v. Duarte,
    
    246 F.3d 56
    , 60 (1st Cir. 2001)).            The plain error approach we
    apply in this case is incompatible with those concerns.
    D.   The Role of the PSR
    The mistaken approach to plain error adopted in Turbides-
    Leonardo reflects the confusion in our law about when it is
    appropriate to rely on an unobjected-to PSR to prove a defendant's
    criminal history.       Courts may accept the PSR's representation of
    the existence of a prior conviction in the absence of objection.
    See, e.g., United States v. Jimenez, 
    512 F.3d 1
    , 7 (1st Cir. 2007)
    (stating that, where an offense listed in a presentence report "is
    not disputed before the sentencing court, the report itself is
    -46-
    competent evidence of the fact stated and, thus, is sufficient
    proof of that fact"); United States v. Brown, 
    510 F.3d 57
    , 74 (1st
    Cir.   2007)   (describing   the   government's   burden   of   proving   a
    predicate conviction for sentencing purposes as "modest," and
    noting that it can be satisfied by, inter alia, "introducing a
    certified copy of the judgment, or by a statement in the PSR").
    However, courts are not permitted to rely on the PSR to
    establish the character of a conviction under a divisible statute.
    A decision to accept the PSR as adequate evidence of the nature of
    a defendant's prior crimes would conflict with the Supreme Court's
    directive that the particular offense committed in violation of a
    divisible statute be determined through examination of Shepard-
    approved documents. Indeed, police reports are a typical source of
    the facts reported in a PSR, see, e.g., Davis, 676 F.3d at 8-9
    (noting that the PSR's summary of a prior crime was based on a
    police report), and police reports are expressly excluded from the
    list of approved documents, see, e.g., Ramos-González, 775 F.3d at
    506 (noting that we "may not rely on the police reports related to
    the earlier conviction" (quoting Carter, 752 F.3d at 20 (citing
    Shepard, 
    544 U.S. at 16
    ))). Although the PSR will commonly include
    the details of the defendant's criminal conduct, it will not
    necessarily reveal the pertinent information for the modified
    categorical approach, i.e., the specific elements of the crime
    underlying the listed convictions.        See, e.g.,   Descamps, 133 S.
    -47-
    Ct. at 2283 ("The key [in determining whether a prior conviction
    can serve as an ACCA predicate] . . . is elements, not facts.");
    id. at 2289 (noting that a defendant may have pled guilty to a less
    serious version of the crime than reflected in factual statements
    "found in the old record").
    Thus, although our cases unequivocally allow a sentencing
    court to rely on the PSR to confirm the existence or validity of
    convictions in the absence of an objection, other cases properly
    recognize that such deference cannot extend to the question whether
    convictions   under    a      divisible     statute   represent      qualifying
    predicates for sentencing enhancements.           See, e.g., Dávila-Félix,
    667 F.3d at 56-57 (rejecting government's reliance "primarily upon
    the facts as recounted in the presentence investigation report,"
    despite the defendant's failure to object to the PSR's analysis);
    Jimenez, 
    512 F.3d at 7
     (stating that sufficient proof of the two
    prior convictions "does not necessarily end our inquiry" because
    "[i]n some circumstances, the question would remain whether the
    underlying offenses qualify as controlled substance offenses within
    the meaning of the applicable sentencing guideline").
    Yet, in Turbides-Leonardo, the panel cited a single
    Eighth Circuit case for the proposition that a PSR "may be a
    permissible source of information about a prior conviction for
    sentence enhancement purposes" to bolster its conclusion that the
    district   court      acted     "reasonabl[y]"        in   relying     on   the
    -48-
    uncontroverted PSR to enhance the defendant's sentence based on a
    conviction under a divisible statute.                     
    468 F.3d at
    39 (citing
    United States v. Arrieta-Buendia, 
    372 F.3d 953
    , 955-56 (8th Cir.
    2004)).     In the Eighth Circuit case, however, the defendant had
    admitted his conviction for a type of crime that qualifies as a
    predicate offense.         See Arrieta-Buendia, 
    372 F.3d at 955
     (stating
    that the defendant "told the district court he was not guilty of
    the California felony of transporting methamphetamine, but was
    forced to plead guilty to that crime").                      Arrieta-Buendia is not
    only an out-of-circuit precedent, but it also is inapt where, as
    here,   the    PSR   does       not   reveal    whether      a   conviction   under    a
    divisible     statute      is    an   eligible     predicate       offense    and   the
    defendant has not waived or conceded the point.
    To   some    extent,     the     panel    in   Davis   recognized     the
    difference between using a PSR to prove the fact of a conviction
    under a divisible statute and relying on the report to establish
    the specific elements of the crime underlying that conviction.                        At
    issue in Davis was whether a conviction for assault and battery was
    a predicate offense for career offender status.                         676 F.3d at 7.
    The panel noted that the only evidence in the record indicating the
    violent nature of the offense was in the PSR, with details drawn
    from police reports.            Id. at 5, 8-9.         The defendant, however, did
    not object to the PSR's characterization of the offense as a crime
    of   violence,       and        he    did    not   contest        the     government's
    -49-
    characterization of him as a career offender at the sentencing
    hearing.   Id. at 6.     On appeal, as discussed above, the panel found
    that the defendant had failed to satisfy the prejudice prong of the
    plain error inquiry: "[Defendant] has made no argument that the
    assault and battery was anything other than the harmful type, doing
    nothing, even on appeal, to question the description provided in
    the PSR or to argue that appropriate Shepard materials would prove
    that he committed a non-harmful battery."       Id. at 10.
    The   Davis    panel,   however,   directly   confronted   the
    adequacy of the PSR to show the requisite violent conduct.             It
    first quoted the assertion in Torres-Rosario that "'treating a
    Massachusetts assault and battery conviction as a [career offender]
    predicate, without further evidence of violence, is now plain
    error.'"    Id. at 9 (quoting Torres-Rosario, 
    658 F.3d at 116
    )
    (alteration and emphasis in Davis).       The Davis panel then went on
    to speculate that "the description in the PSR might constitute such
    further evidence," and, for that reason, "this case does not neatly
    fall within the plain error standards we set in Torres-Rosario."
    
    Id.
       In an immediately following footnote, the panel observed that
    "[w]e have never squarely addressed whether reliance on a PSR under
    these circumstances is proper," but noted prior dicta indicating
    that, even though police records are not "permissible Shepard
    materials," "we would approve of the use of a PSR's summary of
    police reports to support the characterization of a predicate
    -50-
    offense when the defendant did not object to the PSR."              
    Id.
     at 9
    n.6.
    This arguable approval in Davis of unchallenged police
    reports in a PSR to establish the character of a predicate offense
    is weakly grounded in our precedent and contrary to Shepard.              The
    precedent cited for this proposition is Jimenez, where the panel's
    primary focus was on whether challenged predicate crimes listed in
    the PSR were adequately verified, not on the convictions' character
    for the modified-categorical inquiry.          See Jimenez, 
    512 F.3d at 6
    (noting appellant's argument that "the district court erred when it
    relied on the PSI Report for proof of these prior convictions").
    Jimenez did not argue that either of the challenged convictions was
    "for an offense that falls outside the contemplation of the career
    offender provisions."         
    Id.
     at 5 n.3; see also 
    id. at 7
     (observing
    that "appellant has made no argument, either in the lower court or
    in     this   court,    that    his   prior   convictions,    if    properly
    substantiated,     do   not    qualify   as   convictions   for    controlled
    substance offenses").19
    19
    The precedent cited by the Jimenez panel further
    demonstrates that the issue addressed there was whether the
    convictions were properly included in the PSR, not whether the
    convictions were eligible predicates for enhancement. To support
    its statement that the PSR provides "competent evidence of the fact
    stated and, thus, is sufficient proof of that fact," the court
    cited United States v. Pelletier, 
    469 F.3d 194
    , 202-03 (1st Cir.
    2006), and United States v. Cordero, 
    42 F.3d 697
    , 701 (1st Cir.
    1994), which involved challenges to the fact (Pelletier) or
    constitutionality (Cordero) of a conviction. 
    512 F.3d at 7
    .
    -51-
    Davis thus contemplates disregarding the Supreme Court's
    explicit   restriction   on   what   documents   may   be   consulted   to
    determine the nature of a predicate conviction under a divisible
    statute, allowing reliance on materials (i.e., police reports) that
    have been expressly designated as unacceptable for this purpose.
    See Shepard, 
    544 U.S. at 16
    .     In my view, however, we are not free
    to depart from the Supreme Court's methodology for determining the
    eligibility of a predicate offense, even in the context of plain
    error.     That   methodology,   designed   to   ensure   that   prolonged
    sentences are justified, has substantive importance. See Dantzler,
    771 F.3d at 149 (stating that the defendant's failure to object did
    not "render the PSR's description more reliable in establishing the
    requisite" predicate).    That is why, when a sentencing judge errs
    by failing to demand Shepard-approved proof that the defendant's
    conviction under a divisible statute was for a predicate offense,
    a sentencing enhancement cannot stand if its only foundation is the
    defendant's PSR, at least when the report is not drawn from
    approved sources.    Accord Reyes, 691 F.3d at 459 ("We have little
    trouble concluding that a sentencing court may not rely on a PSR's
    description of a defendant's pre-arrest conduct that resulted in a
    prior conviction to determine that the prior offense constitutes a
    -52-
    'crime of violence' under U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a)(1), even where the
    defendant does not object to the PSR's description.").20
    The Turbides-Leonardo approach, however, indirectly gives
    Serrano's PSR dispositive weight by rejecting his claim that the
    record does not support classifying his Article 3.1 offense as a
    crime of violence.    The district court accepted the base offense
    level calculation recommended in the PSR, which was premised on
    multiple prior convictions -- including under Article 3.1 -- for
    crimes of violence.      In failing to require proof of the actual
    basis for Serrano's convictions, the district court necessarily
    deferred to the PSR's depiction of his offenses.        By leaving the
    district court's reliance on the PSR undisturbed (unless the
    defendant comes forward with contrary evidence), we are sanctioning
    that deference.   Yet, as I have shown, any suggestion in our cases
    that such deference may be permissible developed from inapplicable
    precedent and, more importantly, contravenes the Supreme Court's
    specific   delineation    in   Shepard   of   the   records   that   may
    20
    In Dantzler, the Second Circuit reserved judgment on whether
    a PSR may be a permissible source of evidence of the nature of a
    predicate conviction if the report "was derived in whole, or in
    large part," from Shepard-approved materials. 771 F.3d at 147. I
    likewise intimate no view on that scenario. But see, e.g., Boykin,
    669 F.3d at 469 (stating that a PSR may be used for enhancement
    purposes if it "'bears the earmarks of derivation from Shepard-
    approved sources,'" at least where the defendant "'never raised the
    slightest objection either to the propriety of its source material
    or to its accuracy'" (quoting United States v. Thompson, 
    421 F.3d 278
    , 285 (4th Cir. 2005)).
    -53-
    substantiate the eligibility for enhancement of a conviction under
    a divisible statute.
    In light of this analysis, the district court plainly
    erred in deferring to the PSR -- or, as described above, in failing
    to demand acceptable forms of proof from the government.               The
    defendant's failure to make a timely objection imposes on him the
    burden to show that he suffered from the court's error.         We should
    conclude that his burden is easily met -- and a resentencing
    required -- if the court relied on such convictions to enhance his
    sentence.
    II.
    In examining a claim of plain error in the context of the
    modified categorical approach, we cannot lose sight of the courts'
    obligation to ensure that extended incarceration is imposed only
    when   the   government   has   proven   that   it   is   justified   by   a
    defendant's criminal history.        We can, and should, meet this
    obligation by adopting the Second Circuit's (and other courts')
    approach that a "defendant's failure to object d[oes] not cure the
    Government's failure to submit the proper evidence." Dantzler, 771
    F.3d at 149 (describing the holding in Reyes, 691 F.3d at 459).            As
    I have explained, requiring the government to retain its burden to
    justify a sentencing enhancement does not result in excusing the
    defendant's default. Nor will a finding of prejudicial plain error
    and the required relief -- at most, a new sentencing proceeding --
    -54-
    impose undue burden on the court.        Although few sentences may be
    changed through this process, "the fairness, integrity, [and]
    public   reputation   of   judicial   proceedings"   will   be   enhanced.
    Mercado, 777 F.3d at 536     (internal quotation marks omitted).
    In this case, where variants of Article 3.1 do not
    include the requisite element of violence, we should not reject
    appellant's claim on the ground that some offenses under the
    statute would qualify as predicate crimes of violence.                The
    district court committed plain error when it relied on Serrano's
    conviction under that divisible statute to justify an increased
    term of imprisonment in the absence of approved forms of evidence
    of the nature of his particular crime.          The court should have
    insisted that the government shoulder its burden to substantiate
    that Serrano's conviction was in fact a qualifying predicate.
    Hence, on en banc review, this court should hold that Serrano is
    entitled to a new sentencing proceeding where the government may
    seek to show that his conviction was for a crime of violence.
    -55-