Foxworth v. ST. AMAND ( 2009 )


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  •              United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 08-1751
    ROBERT FOXWORTH,
    Petitioner, Appellee,
    v.
    PETER ST. AMAND,
    Respondent, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
    [Hon. Rya W. Zobel, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Lynch, Chief Judge,
    Selya and Siler,* Circuit Judges.
    Susanne G. Reardon, Assistant Attorney General, Commonwealth
    of Massachusetts, with whom Martha Coakely, Attorney General, was
    on brief, for appellant
    John M. Thompson, with whom Linda J. Thompson and Thompson &
    Thompson, P.C. were on brief, for appellee.
    June 29, 2009
    _______________
    *
    Of the Sixth Circuit, sitting by designation.
    SELYA,     Circuit    Judge.          This   habeas   appeal     presents
    several challenging questions.              Two of these are particularly
    intriguing.     The first involves the effect of an eyewitness's
    expression of less than complete certitude about a crucial out-of-
    court identification that he previously made.                    The second is a
    multi-part question. The initial part deals with the cut-off point
    for determining what constitutes "clearly established Federal law"
    within the purview of 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1), a provision of the
    Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (AEDPA), Pub.
    L. No. 104-132, 
    110 Stat. 1214
    .                 The next part of that question
    concerns the selection of the relevant precedent from the Supreme
    Court's evolving Confrontation Clause jurisprudence — a question
    made relevant by the Supreme Court's decision, in 1998, of Gray v.
    Maryland, 
    523 U.S. 185
     (1998).              Because Gray has not been made
    retroactive to cases under collateral review, this case turns on
    the   applicability     vel    non   of    that    precedent     to   the   redacted
    statement of a nontestifying codefendant under circumstances in
    which his objecting codefendant's name has been replaced with a
    cryptic designation ("Mr. X").            As matters turn out, the answer to
    this part of the inquiry depends on the answer to the initial part.
    These questions arise in the context of a state-court
    conviction for second-degree murder. In the proceedings below the
    district court, acting under habeas jurisdiction, granted relief
    because   it   deemed    the    evidence         insufficient    to   support   the
    -2-
    conviction and, secondarily, because it deemed the admission of the
    nontestifying codefendant's statement violative of the petitioner's
    rights under the Confrontation Clause of the Sixth Amendment.         See
    Foxworth v. Massachusetts (Foxworth III), No. 03-11844, slip op. at
    27 (D. Mass. May 14, 2008) (unpublished); Foxworth v. Maloney
    (Foxworth I), No. 03-11844, slip op. at 19 (D. Mass. Aug. 17, 2006)
    (unpublished).
    After a lengthy exegesis through this maze of problems,
    we reverse in part, retain jurisdiction, and certify a critical
    question of state law to the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court
    (SJC).
    I. BACKGROUND
    Because this appeal involves a challenge to evidentiary
    sufficiency, we rehearse the facts in the light most compatible
    with the verdict rendered by the state-court jury, consistent with
    record support. See Jackson v. Virginia, 
    443 U.S. 307
    , 319 (1979).
    In   a   wrinkle   peculiar   to   the   exercise   of   federal   habeas
    jurisdiction we grant a presumption of correctness to the state
    courts' factual determinations.      See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (e)(1).
    Roxbury is an enclave in Boston, Massachusetts.         On May
    23, 1991, a group of men went to the Roxbury home of Kenneth McLean
    bent on buying drugs.   After they arrived, matters got out of hand.
    Apparently, McLean was beaten.       He then broke free and ran.      At
    -3-
    least one of the men chased McLean and shot him as he fled.
    McLean's wounds proved fatal.
    In July of 1991, a Suffolk County grand jury indicted
    petitioner-appellee Robert Foxworth for the murder.           By way of a
    superceding indictment, the grand jury also charged two other men,
    Troy Logan and Ronald Christian, with the murder.             As the case
    unfolded,   many   of   the   facts    were   undisputed;   the   shooter's
    identity, however, was hotly contested.            This factual dispute
    became the focal point of the ensuing trial.
    The prosecution's case against the petitioner hinged on
    an eyewitness identification by Derek Hobson. The petitioner filed
    a pretrial motion to suppress the identification testimony.             His
    motion was denied.
    At trial, Hobson testified that, at approximately 6:00
    p.m. on May 23, he was walking down Brookford Street in Roxbury.
    He observed a man run out of a building located at 5 Brookford
    Street.   The man yelled: "Those people are crazy."         Then, another
    man (later identified as Kenneth McLean) exited the premises and
    ran pell-mell down the street.        He had blood on his mouth and tape
    on one arm.
    Not heroically inclined, Hobson hid behind a car parked
    directly across from 5 Brookford Street.         From that vantage point,
    he observed another man emerge from the building with a gun.          That
    man fired three or four shots at McLean, who collapsed.
    -4-
    Hobson saw the shooter for at least forty seconds from a
    distance of approximately fifteen to twenty feet.          When the police
    arrived, he described the shooter as a medium-complected black
    male, six feet or six feet one inch in height, weighing one hundred
    forty pounds, and sporting a one inch "tail" that protruded from
    the back of his head.     At trial, Hobson added that the shooter was
    wearing a black baseball cap and that the "tail" stuck out from
    under the back of the cap.
    On June 17, Detective Daniel Flynn, the officer in charge
    of the investigation, visited Hobson and presented him with a photo
    array.     The    array   contained    twenty    photographs,     including
    photographs of all three men eventually accused of the murder.
    Hobson   selected   the   petitioner's    photograph   from     the   array,
    identifying him as the shooter.       Flynn testified that Hobson acted
    "without hesitation."
    Later that month, the police showed Hobson another photo
    array. Once more, Hobson selected the petitioner's photograph from
    the array and identified him as the shooter.
    At    trial,   Hobson   did   not    make   a   live   in-court
    identification but confirmed that the petitioner was the person he
    had identified from the photo arrays.           On cross-examination, he
    acknowledged that he had not seen the shooter head-on but had "seen
    the whole like side of his face."        He also admitted that he had
    based his selections from the photo arrays in part on the fact that
    -5-
    the man he remembered had a "tail" (and the petitioner was the only
    person with a "tail" whose picture was displayed). When pressed by
    defense counsel to gauge his confidence in the identification,
    Hobson stated that he was "eighty percent sure."
    Anthony McAfee, who was strolling along with Hobson
    immediately before the shooting, testified that he first observed
    a man running from the house, yelling "[t]hose people are crazy."
    Then, McLean scampered from the building.   Two other men followed.
    One of that pair got into a car parked at the curb on Brookford
    Street and passed a black object to the other man.      The latter
    proceeded to fire five or six shots at McLean.          When Flynn
    presented McAfee with the same photo array that he initially had
    presented to Hobson, McAfee identified Logan as the man who handed
    over the black object.   McAfee could not identify the shooter.
    The petitioner had filed a pretrial motion to sever his
    trial from that of his codefendants.    He premised that motion on
    the potential prejudice inherent in a statement made by Logan to
    the police.   The motion was unsuccessful, and the statement was
    prominently featured at the joint trial.
    Detective Flynn read the statement into evidence over the
    petitioner's timely objection.    In an effort to avert the feared
    prejudice, the trial justice ordered redaction of the statement.
    In its redacted form, the petitioner's name was replaced with the
    pseudonym "Mr. X" and the statement was altered so that, after the
    -6-
    first reference to "Mr. X," it appeared (falsely) that Logan had
    stated: "Cause that's how I know him by.            I don't know his real
    name."   The trial justice also admitted a copy of the redacted
    statement into evidence.
    In the statement, Logan related that, on the evening in
    question, he met two men named "Tea Lover" and "Mr. X" at a
    sandwich shop.     "Tea Lover" and Logan resolved to go to McLean's
    apartment to buy cocaine.       "Mr. X" accompanied them because McLean
    owed him money as a result of a prior sale of "bad" cocaine.
    Shortly after the group's arrival, "Mr. X" and McLean argued. "Mr.
    X" left the premises.     Logan opted to do likewise.          As he made his
    way downstairs, "Mr. X" was coming back upstairs.              Logan noticed
    that "Mr. X" had a gun tucked into his waistband.             Logan continued
    his descent and, as he was getting into a cab, heard shots.
    The statement indicated that Logan had identified "Mr. X"
    from a photo array.     Flynn testified that the photo array was the
    same one that had been employed earlier in the investigation.               On
    cross-examination by Christian's counsel, Flynn revealed that the
    designation "Mr. X" did not refer to Christian.          Moreover, it was
    a   replacement   for   the   name   Logan   actually   had     used   in   his
    statement.
    The    prosecution    offered     the   redacted    statement    as
    evidence only against Logan.         The trial justice gave a limiting
    instruction both after the reading of the redacted statement and
    -7-
    before jury deliberations began.       The gist of the instruction was
    twofold: that the statement could only be considered against Logan
    (who was being tried on a "joint venture" theory) and that the jury
    should not speculate about who "Mr. X" might be.
    At the close of the prosecution's case, each of the three
    defendants moved for a required finding of not guilty.              The trial
    justice granted Christian's motion in its entirety and granted the
    other defendants' motions with respect to the charge of first-
    degree murder.    These rulings preserved the second-degree murder
    charges against the petitioner and Logan.          On March 31, 1992, the
    jury convicted the petitioner and acquitted Logan.              In due course,
    the trial justice sentenced the petitioner to life imprisonment.
    The petitioner filed a new trial motion under Mass. R.
    Crim. P. 30.      The motion alleged a Bruton violation based on
    admission of Logan's statement.            It also cited purported newly
    discovered   evidence,     alleged     prosecutorial       misconduct,    and
    challenged the photo spread used to identify the petitioner.              The
    trial   justice   denied   the   motion      on   August   8,    1994.    The
    petitioner's timely direct appeal to the Massachusetts Appeals
    Court from the conviction, which advanced similar claims, was
    consolidated with his subsequent appeal from the denial of the
    motion.   On October 21, 1996, the Appeals Court, in an unpublished
    decision, affirmed both the conviction and the denial of the new
    trial motion.
    -8-
    The petitioner had twenty days in which to seek further
    review by the SJC by filing an application for leave to obtain
    further appellate review (ALOFAR).    Mass. R. App. P. 27.1(a).   The
    petitioner made no such filing within the prescribed period.
    Ordinarily, then, the conviction would have become final
    in 1996.   Here, however, the petitioner some four years later (on
    October 25, 2000) filed a pro se ALOFAR in the SJC seeking further
    review of the Appeals Court decision.    The pro se ALOFAR included
    a "motion to file late application for further appellate review,"
    which asked the SJC to excuse his untimely filing on two grounds.
    The pro se ALOFAR argued that the petitioner's Sixth
    Amendment rights under Bruton had been violated by the introduction
    of Logan's statement but made no mention of Gray (which had been
    decided on March 9, 1998).   The ALOFAR also raised several other
    challenges to the 1996 Appeals Court ruling, none of which are
    material here.
    The SJC did not rule either on the ALOFAR or on the
    petitioner's motion to file out of time because, on November 15,
    2000, the petitioner asked the SJC to stay consideration of his
    ALOFAR pending the resolution of a second new trial motion.       The
    SJC granted the petitioner's request for a stay on February 1,
    2001, and ordered petitioner to file regular status reports on the
    progress of his second new trial motion.
    -9-
    The petitioner filed his second new trial motion before
    the trial court on December 11, 2000.    That motion, filed pursuant
    to Mass. R. Crim. P. 30, attacked the conviction on four grounds.
    First, it claimed, based on a later affidavit by McAfee, that the
    prosecutor knowingly and intentionally used perjured testimony and
    allowed false evidence to go uncorrected.    Second, it claimed that
    the petitioner's previous counsel provided ineffective assistance
    because he failed to submit affidavits anent newly discovered
    evidence.    Third, it claimed that the trial justice erred in not
    instructing the jury on manslaughter.    Fourth, it claimed that the
    judge gave an incorrect instruction as to malice.
    After the trial court denied the second new trial motion,
    the Appeals Court, on April 17, 2002, affirmed the decision,
    holding that all the claims in the second new trial motion were
    either previously decided or waived.
    The petitioner then moved to consolidate his appeal from
    the denial of the second new trial motion with his previous ALOFAR.
    The SJC appointed counsel on May 22, 2002, and on May 28 granted
    the petitioner's motion to extend the time for filing to June 24,
    2002.   On June 27, 2002, counsel informed the SJC that an amended
    ALOFAR would be filed.
    On July 22, 2002, the petitioner filed a "motion to file
    an amended FAR application late," which was allowed by a docket
    notation of the same day, without comment.      It appears from the
    -10-
    record     that    the    allowance    of     this   motion    related    to   the
    petitioner's non-observance of the June 24 deadline for filing
    briefs.    It is unclear whether that order may have applied to the
    petitioner's failure, under Mass. R. App. P. 27.1(a), to file and
    ALOFAR within twenty days of either the October 21, 1996 Appeals
    Court decision affirming the conviction and the denial of the first
    new trial motion or the April 17, 2002 Appeals Court decision
    affirming the denial of the second new trial motion.
    Also     on   July   22,   the   petitioner,      through    appointed
    counsel, filed his amended ALOFAR.            The July 22 amended ALOFAR was
    based primarily on the Bruton claim; here, for the first time, the
    petitioner raised Gray as an explicit basis for his claim.                     The
    amended ALOFAR also raised challenges to the photo array and to the
    sufficiency of the evidence.             Although the amended ALOFAR was
    consolidated with the appeal from the denial of the second new
    trial motion, it did not raise any challenges to the Appeals
    Court's 2002 decision.
    On September 6, 2002, the SJC denied the ALOFAR without
    comment.
    The petitioner repaired to the federal district court in
    search of a writ of habeas corpus.              See 
    28 U.S.C. §§ 2244-2254
    .
    Naming an appropriate correctional official as the respondent, his
    habeas petition raised three fully exhausted claims: (i) that his
    conviction        violated   due   process      because    the    evidence     was
    -11-
    constitutionally insufficient under the rule of Jackson, 
    443 U.S. at 319
    ;   (ii)   that   the   use   of    an   unreliable   eyewitness
    identification violated due process, see Neil v. Biggers, 
    409 U.S. 188
    , 198 (1972); and (iii) that the admission at trial of Logan's
    incriminating statement violated his Sixth Amendment rights as
    announced in Bruton v. United States, 
    391 U.S. 123
    , 126 (1968), and
    elaborated in Gray.
    On August 17, 2006, the district court ruled in favor of
    the petitioner on his Bruton claim.        The court regarded the two-
    part inference that "Mr. X" was the shooter and that the petitioner
    was "Mr. X" as obvious; therefore, "[t]he statement — given by a
    codefendant with powerful motive to incriminate petitioner, and
    unchallenged by cross-examination — violated petitioner's Sixth
    Amendment rights."    Foxworth I, slip op. at 19.    The district court
    deemed consideration of the petitioner's two remaining claims
    unnecessary, vacated the conviction, and ordered the Commonwealth
    either to retry or to release the petitioner.        Id. at 23.
    The respondent appealed.       We remanded the case to the
    district court to address the sufficiency of the evidence claim,
    noting that a finding in the petitioner's favor on that claim would
    preclude a retrial. See Foxworth v. Maloney (Foxworth II), 
    515 F.3d 1
    , 4 (1st Cir. 2008).
    The district court sensibly ordered the petitioner's
    release on bail and proceeded to address the unadjudicated claims.
    -12-
    With respect to the due process/eyewitness identification claim,
    the court determined that although the identification procedure was
    suggestive to a degree, the state court's conclusion that any
    suggestiveness was outweighed by Hobson's ability to observe at the
    time of the incident was not objectively unreasonable.                 Foxworth
    III, slip op. at 17.       Thus, the admission of Hobson's testimony did
    not transgress due process.        
    Id.
         As to the insufficiency claim,
    the court concluded that "it was objectively unreasonable for the
    [Massachusetts] Appeals Court to do no more than cite the general
    standard when, even after crediting the entire testimony of the
    witness, there was still significant doubt in his identification of
    Foxworth."      
    Id. at 26
     (emphasis in original).           On that basis, the
    court   set    aside   the   conviction    and    ordered    the   petitioner's
    release.      
    Id. at 28
    .
    This timely appeal ensued.         In it, the respondent seeks
    to test the mettle of the petitioner's insufficiency and Sixth
    Amendment claims. The due process/eyewitness identification ruling
    has not been challenged.
    II. ANALYSIS
    We begin our substantive discussion by laying out the
    ground rules for federal habeas review of state-court convictions.
    We then address sequentially the two constitutional claims that are
    before us.
    -13-
    A. Standards of Review.
    Federal habeas review of a state-court conviction is
    governed by the AEDPA, which permits federal courts to grant habeas
    relief    after    a    final   state-court      adjudication     of   a    federal
    constitutional claim if that adjudication can be shown to be
    "contrary to," or to have involved, "an unreasonable application
    of, clearly established Federal law, as determined by the Supreme
    Court of the United States" or in the alternative, to have been
    "based on an unreasonable determination of the facts in light of
    the evidence presented in the State court proceedings."                  
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d).      In administering these standards, the state court's
    factual findings are presumed to be correct, and they can be
    overcome    only       by   clear   and    convincing   evidence.          See   
    id.
    § 2254(e)(1); see also Ouber v. Guarino, 
    293 F.3d 19
    , 27 (1st Cir.
    2002).
    A     state-court       decision     is   "contrary    to"      clearly
    established Federal law if "the state court arrives at a conclusion
    opposite from that reached by the U.S. Supreme Court on a question
    of law, or if the state court decides the case differently than the
    U.S. Supreme Court has on a set of materially indistinguishable
    facts."    Sleeper v. Spencer, 
    510 F.3d 32
    , 37-38 (1st Cir. 2007)
    (citing Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 405 (2000)).                 This is an
    "unreasonable application" case; no colorable arguments are made
    -14-
    suggesting that the relevant state-court rulings are directly
    "contrary to" clearly established Supreme Court precedent.
    An     unreasonable   application      of   clearly      established
    Federal law occurs when
    the state court correctly identifies the
    governing legal principles, but (i) applies
    those principles to the facts of the case in
    an objectively unreasonable manner; (ii)
    unreasonably extends clearly established legal
    principles to a new context where they should
    not apply; or (iii) unreasonably refuses to
    extend established principles to a new context
    where they should apply.
    Id. at 38.           "The habeas question of whether the state court
    decision is objectively unreasonable is layered on top of the
    underlying standard governing the constitutional right asserted."
    Hurtado v. Tucker, 
    245 F.3d 7
    , 16 (1st Cir. 2001).                So viewed, the
    state court's decision is not vulnerable unless it evinces some
    increment of incorrectness beyond mere error. McCambridge v. Hall,
    
    303 F.3d 24
    , 36 (1st Cir. 2002) (en banc).
    In     probing   whether    a     state-court   decision      is   an
    unreasonable application of clearly established Federal law, the
    nature of the legal rule — that is, the extent to which the rule is
    specific rather than general — makes a substantial difference.                   If
    the legal rule is specific, the range of reasonable judgments is
    correspondingly narrow.         Conversely, if the legal rule is general,
    the   range     of    reasonable    judgments      is   likely    to   be   broad.
    Yarborough v. Alvardo, 
    541 U.S. 652
    , 664 (2004).                 In other words,
    -15-
    "[t]he more general the rule, the more leeway courts have in
    reaching outcomes in case-by-case determinations."                   
    Id.
    Even if a state-court decision is determined to involve
    an unreasonable application of clearly established Federal law,
    habeas relief will not follow automatically.                     The error must be
    shown to have "had a substantial and injurious effect or influence
    in determining the jury's verdict."                 Delaney v. Bartee, 
    522 F.3d 100
    , 105 (1st Cir. 2008) (quoting Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
    , 631 (1993)).
    Finally, we note that these ground rules apply equally to
    the   district      court     and   to      the     court   of     appeals    alike.
    Consequently, we review a district court's grant or denial of a
    state prisoner's habeas corpus petition de novo.                   Lynch v. Ficco,
    
    438 F.3d 35
    , 44 (1st Cir. 2006).                With these background rules in
    place, we turn next to the sufficiency of the evidence.
    B.   Due Process: Sufficiency of the Evidence.
    In   criminal    cases,     the    constitutional      benchmark     for
    evidentiary sufficiency is familiar: "If the evidence presented,
    taken in the light most flattering to the prosecution, together
    with all reasonable inferences favorable to it, permits a rational
    jury to find each essential element of the crime charged beyond a
    reasonable doubt, then the evidence is legally sufficient." United
    States v. Olbres, 
    61 F.3d 967
    , 970 (1st Cir. 1995) (citing Jackson,
    
    443 U.S. at 319
    ).     Due   largely      to   the   expansiveness      of   this
    -16-
    standard, a sufficiency analysis requires a degree of intellectual
    rigor.   In particular, a reviewing court must refrain from giving
    credence to "evidentiary interpretations and illations that are
    unreasonable, insupportable, or overly speculative." United States
    v. Spinney, 
    65 F.3d 231
    , 234 (1st Cir. 1995).
    In exercising federal habeas jurisdiction we typically
    look to the rationale of the intermediate appellate court where, as
    here, the state's highest court has summarily denied further
    appellate review.    See, e.g., Niland v. Hall, 
    280 F.3d 6
    , 11-12
    (1st Cir. 2002).    In this instance, the measuring stick that the
    Massachusetts Appeals Court applied to the sufficiency analysis
    meets federal constitutional criteria.   Although that court relied
    on a state case, Commonwealth v. Latimore, 
    393 N.E.2d 370
     (Mass.
    1979), in reaching a conclusion about evidentiary sufficiency, a
    state-court adjudication of an issue framed in terms of state law
    is nonetheless entitled to deference under section 2254(d)(1) as
    long as the state and federal issues are for all practical purposes
    synonymous and the state standard is at least as protective of the
    defendant's rights as its federal counterpart.    See McCambridge,
    
    303 F.3d at 35
    .     Since the sufficiency issue is essentially the
    same under both federal and state law and the Latimore court
    transplanted the appropriate federal constitutional standard into
    the jurisprudence of Massachusetts, see Latimore, 393 N.E.2d at 374
    -17-
    (citing Jackson, 
    443 U.S. at 318-19
    ), we can confidently apply the
    AEDPA standard to this issue.
    The Appeals Court concluded that:
    The judge properly denied Foxworth's
    motion for a required finding of not guilty,
    on the basis, if no other, of the eyewitness
    testimony identifying Foxworth as the person
    who shot the fleeing McLean several times and
    then escaped in a car — testimony that was
    corroborated in all respects, except the
    identification of Foxworth as the shooter, by
    a second eyewitness. That evidence, taken in
    the light most favorable to the Commonwealth
    (a premise that Foxworth fails to recognize),
    was sufficient for a rational jury to find
    beyond a reasonable doubt that Foxworth was a
    principal actor in the second degree murder,
    with malice inferable from the intentional use
    of a deadly weapon. Foxworth's presentation
    of an alibi defense did not serve to take the
    issue from the jury.
    The question, then, is whether this determination constitutes an
    unreasonable application of the Jackson standard.
    The petitioner asserts that the only evidence of his
    involvement was the testimony of a single eyewitness and that this
    testimony lacked the force necessary to prove guilt beyond a
    reasonable doubt.   The district court agreed; it found multiple
    weaknesses in Hobson's testimony, including discrepancies between
    his account and McAfee's, inconsistencies in his description of the
    shooter, the lack of an in-court identification, flaws in the photo
    array, and the witness's admission that he was less than certain
    about the identification.   See Foxworth III, slip op. at 22.   The
    respondent assigns error to this ruling.
    -18-
    The question is close, and the district court is correct
    that       Hobson's   testimony     is    the    only    evidence    that    directly
    implicates      the   petitioner     as    the    shooter.1         Nevertheless,     a
    criminal       conviction    can    rest    on    the    testimony     of   a     single
    eyewitness.       Even if the eyewitness's testimony is uncorroborated
    and comes from an individual of dubious veracity, it can suffice to
    ground a conviction.        See, e.g., Hayes v. Battaglia, 
    403 F.3d 935
    ,
    938 (7th Cir. 2005).          Hobson's first-hand testimony was neither
    inherently      improbable    nor    materially         undermined    by    any   other
    unimpeachable proof.         It placed the petitioner at the scene of the
    murder and identified him as the shooter.                 No more was exigible to
    satisfy the Jackson standard.
    That is not to say that a rational jury had to accept the
    eyewitness identification.               Hobson was exposed to a withering
    cross-examination, which disclosed a number of weaknesses in his
    testimony.       It is well-established, though, that determining a
    witness's credibility, even in the face of a furious attack, is a
    function that falls squarely within the province of the jury. See,
    e.g., United States v. Lipscomb, 
    539 F.3d 32
    , 40 (1st Cir. 2008);
    Ramonez v. Berghuis, 
    490 F.3d 482
    , 490 (6th Cir. 2007); United
    States v. Calderón, 
    77 F.3d 6
    , 10 (1st Cir. 1996).
    1
    Although Logan's statement also implicated the petitioner,
    see infra Part II(C)(2), the statement was admitted solely against
    Logan.
    -19-
    In defending the district court's sufficiency ruling, the
    petitioner notes that some of the details to which Hobson testified
    did not match his original statements to the police.           In a similar
    vein, he points out that Hobson's testimony was not entirely
    congruent with McAfee's testimony.        But such discrepancies do not
    as a matter of law render a witness's testimony unworthy of belief.
    Rather, they are for the jury to sort out and weigh.           "The actual
    resolution   of    the   conflicting    evidence,   the     credibility   of
    witnesses,   and   the   plausibility    of   competing    explanations   is
    exactly the task to be performed by a rational jury, considering a
    case presented by competent counsel on both sides."            Matthews v.
    Abramajtys, 
    319 F.3d 780
    , 790 (6th Cir. 2003).            It is rare that a
    key witness survives a murder trial unscathed, and the jurors in
    this case were free to credit Hobson's version of the events or
    not, as they saw fit.
    The absence of an in-court identification does not tip
    the sufficiency scales.     Extrajudicial witness identifications are
    routinely used as substantive evidence of guilt.                See, e.g.,
    Samuels v. Mann, 
    13 F.3d 522
    , 527 (2d Cir. 1993); see also Fed. R.
    Evid. 801(d)(1)(C) (excluding prior out-of-court identifications
    from the definition of hearsay).        There is no requirement, either
    in the Constitution or in the usual rules that apply to the
    admission of evidence, that a witness who makes an extrajudicial
    -20-
    identification must repeat the identification in the courtroom.2
    Consequently, the fact that Hobson never identified the petitioner
    at trial does not alter the constitutional calculus.
    The petitioner offers a closely related argument.              He
    maintains that Hobson's out-of-court identification was itself so
    unreliable that a rational jury could not rely on it.                    In this
    regard, he stresses that the district court characterized the photo
    array as suggestive.         See Foxworth III, slip op. at 16.
    The bottom line, however, is that the district court
    concluded that it was not objectively unreasonable for the state
    court       to    find   enough   indicia     of   reliability    to   allow   the
    introduction of the identification testimony into evidence without
    offending any constitutional safeguard.               See id. at 16-17.        The
    petitioner has not challenged that conclusion on appeal.
    Moreover, the alleged flaws in the photo array were fully
    vetted at the trial; the cross-examiner dwelt on them and argued
    the   point       vociferously    to   the   jury.    He   also   exploited    the
    testimony about viewing angles (i.e., that the view Hobson had of
    the petitioner was in profile).              Despite the force of this multi-
    pronged attack, the jury credited Hobson's identification.                      On
    2
    This paradigm makes good sense: it is designed to facilitate
    the introduction of eyewitness identifications made "when memory
    was fresher and there had been less opportunity for influence to be
    exerted upon [the witness]."     United States v. Lewis, 
    565 F.2d 1248
    , 1251 (2d Cir. 1977) (quoting United States v. Marchand, 
    564 F.2d 983
    , 996 (2d Cir. 1977)).
    -21-
    collateral review, we cannot disturb its judgment.                  Ramonez, 
    490 F.3d at 490
    .
    Finally, the district court gave significant weight to
    the fact that Hobson admitted that he was only "eighty percent
    sure" of his identification.         The court reasoned that even if the
    testimony was fully credited by the jury, it carried with it a
    significant     measure     of   doubt    and,    therefore,    "it    would    be
    irrational to find that fact beyond a reasonable doubt [when] the
    eyewitness himself was not sure of the fact . . . ."                Foxworth III,
    slip op. at 24-25. On appeal, the respondent savages this analysis
    while the petitioner embraces it.
    Although the district court's reasoning has a patina of
    plausibility, it does not withstand close scrutiny.                        A prior
    identification is not stripped of probative force merely because
    the witness confesses that he harbors some doubt about it.                     Cf.
    Samuels, 
    13 F.3d at 527
     (holding that a jury could credit a
    witness's     earlier     identification     of    the   defendant     over    the
    witness's in-court identification of a different person).                      The
    witness's certainty vel non is properly viewed as a factor that
    must be evaluated by the jury as the trier of the facts — but a
    jury is no more bound to find reasonable doubt based on an
    eyewitness's profession that he is "eighty percent certain" than it
    would   be   bound   to    accept   the   identification       if    the   witness
    professed to being "one hundred percent certain."
    -22-
    This conclusion is rooted in human experience and common
    sense.     Self-esteem is a wild card.          Some witnesses may be over-
    confident about their powers of perception or recall; others may be
    diffident or overly cautious.          Moreover, "some witnesses verbalize
    their assurances of being correct with more positiveness than
    others."       United States v. Smith, 
    563 F.2d 1361
    , 1363 (9th Cir.
    1977).    And, finally, there is no necessary correlation between a
    witness's        self-confidence       and     the   correctness     of    his
    identification.       In the last analysis, it is up to the jury to
    gauge    the     accuracy   of   an    identification,   factoring    in   any
    protestations of assurance or self-doubt.3
    In this case, there is no principled way to label the
    jury's choice as irrational.             Hobson selected the petitioner's
    picture from each of two separate (constitutionally adequate) photo
    arrays.     The first time, he signed the back of the photograph to
    confirm the identification.           Detective Flynn testified that Hobson
    acted "without hesitation."           He later made a second identification
    from another photo array. These identifications were made in close
    proximity to the time of the murder.            In addition, the petitioner
    resembled the general description given by Hobson at that time.
    Hobson's subsequent expression of less than complete certitude
    about the identifications came nearly a year later (after his
    3
    The trial justice instructed the jurors that the identity of
    the shooter was of paramount importance in this case and that it
    was up to them to decide the accuracy of Hobson's identification.
    -23-
    memory   arguably   had    dulled).      Given   the    totality   of     the
    circumstances, we conclude that Hobson's eyewitness testimony could
    reasonably be thought to comprise part of a constitutionally
    adequate foundation for the ensuing conviction.
    Of course, the fact that each weakness in Hobson's
    testimony can be overcome does not mean that, in the aggregate,
    they can be overcome.      Cf. Bourjaily v. United States, 
    483 U.S. 171
    , 179-80 (1987) (explaining that "individual pieces of evidence,
    insufficient in themselves to prove a point, may in cumulation
    prove it"). The district court made this point quite forcefully.
    See Foxworth III, slip op. at 25-26.      Under the AEDPA, however, the
    question is not whether the outcome reached by the state court is
    correct in an absolute sense but, rather, the reasonableness of
    that court's application of clearly established Federal law in
    reaching that outcome.     See Hurtado, 
    245 F.3d at 20
    .
    We mention one last point.            We have said that the
    underlying constitutional question is close. The very closeness of
    the question solidifies the result that we must reach in this case.
    Habeas relief is precluded when "it is a close question whether the
    state decision is in error."    Evans v. Thompson, 
    518 F.3d 1
    , 7 (1st
    Cir.   2008)   (quoting   McCambridge,   
    303 F.3d at 36
    ).   That   is
    especially so when the state court is tasked with applying a
    general standard, such as that contemplated by Jackson.                   See
    Yarborough, 
    541 U.S. at 664
    ; see also Wright v. West, 
    505 U.S. 277
    ,
    -24-
    308 (Kennedy, J., concurring) (identifying Jackson as enunciating
    a   general    standard).    The   generalized        nature   of   the   Jackson
    standard reinforces our conclusion that it was not unreasonable for
    the Appeals Court to hold that Hobson's testimony, together with
    the other evidence of record, was sufficient to undergird the
    conviction.
    The petitioner, ably represented, tries yet another tack.
    Arguing for a finding of unreasonableness, he emphasizes the
    paucity of reasoning in the Appeals Court's decision. In his view,
    this perceived flaw is aggravated by that court's ostensible
    overstatement of the corrobative effect of McAfee's testimony.
    These arguments have some bite but, on habeas review, the ultimate
    inquiry is not the degree to which the state court's decision is or
    is not smoothly reasoned; the ultimate inquiry is whether the
    outcome is reasonable.       See Hurtado, 
    245 F.3d at 20
    .            A sparsely
    reasoned state-court decision may set off warning bells, but such
    a decision does not necessarily mean that the outcome represents an
    unreasonable application of clearly established Federal law.                 
    Id.
    So it is here. Although the Appeals Court's reasoning on
    this   issue    seems   perfunctory    (a    single    paragraph    with   scant
    analysis), the outcome reached by the court appears to be both
    plausible and adequately supported.           Phrased in the idiom of the
    AEDPA, we cannot say on this record that the outcome was an
    unreasonable application of the Jackson standard.              Accordingly, we
    -25-
    reverse the district court's decision insofar as it purposes to
    grant the petitioner relief on this claim.
    C.    Sixth Amendment: Confrontation.
    The petitioner argued below that the trial justice's
    affirmed ruling allowing Logan's redacted statement into evidence
    violated his Sixth Amendment confrontation rights.        The district
    court concurred with the petitioner's appraisal.    Foxworth I, slip
    op. at 19.   The respondent takes exception.
    To begin, the panel has identified a pivotal issue
    concerning the date upon which the petitioner's conviction became
    final; that is, the date when the process of direct review of the
    conviction in the state courts was exhausted.    The district court,
    believing that the respondent had conceded the point, assumed that
    the conviction became final in 2002 (when the SJC denied the
    amended ALOFAR).     See Foxworth I, slip op. at 4 n.3.    The parties
    have not explicitly addressed the date of finality in their briefs
    in this court (although the respondent consistently has argued that
    Gray should not be applied retroactively to this case).        For our
    part, we have been unable either to locate an outright concession
    or to agree upon an answer to the finality question of when direct
    review ended.   As we explain below, the issue turns out to be a
    dispositive one.4
    4
    There is some room for doubt as to whether the respondent
    has waived or forfeited the date-of-finality issue by failing to
    contest the district court's unfounded statement, by failing to
    -26-
    1.    The Finality Question.    We set the stage.     In federal
    habeas cases, there is a requirement, spelled out in 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d), that a state-court decision be measured against "clearly
    established Federal law, as determined by Supreme Court of the
    United States."     In most cases (and, specifically, in this case),
    the date of finality of the state court conviction determines the
    time line to be used for determining what Supreme Court decisions
    comprise the corpus of this "clearly established Federal law."
    Here, the jury convicted the petitioner on March 31,
    1992; the petitioner's first new trial motion was denied on August
    8, 1994; and both the conviction and the denial of the first new
    trial motion were affirmed by the Appeals Court on October 21,
    1996.   The normal time for seeking direct review of that decision
    expired twenty days later.       See Mass. R. App. P. 27.1(a).            The
    petitioner took no action; and his conviction became final.               At
    that time, the Supreme Court's Confrontation Clause jurisprudence
    included Bruton and Richardson v. Marsh, 
    481 U.S. 200
     (1987).
    The    petitioner   applied    for   leave   to   obtain   further
    appellate review four years later (on October 25, 2000).              In that
    raise the issue squarely in his appellate briefs, and/or by his
    counsel's statements at oral argument in this court. The panel is
    divided on this point: Chief Judge Lynch and Judge Siler find
    neither waiver nor forfeiture; Judge Selya would hold the point
    waived or, at least, forfeited.    Since a majority of the panel
    believes that the question of finality is properly before us, no
    useful purpose would be served by rehearsing the arguments for and
    against waiver.
    -27-
    temporal gap, the Supreme Court decided Gray v. Maryland, 
    523 U.S. 185
     (1998).       That opinion refined and extended the Bruton rule.
    The petitioner's 2000 pro se ALOFAR did not cite Gray.
    The proceedings were stayed while petitioner filed and litigated a
    second      new   trial    motion.     On    July   22,   2002,   the   petitioner
    submitted an amended ALOFAR which cited Gray and argued that, under
    Griffith v. Kentucky, 
    479 U.S. 314
    , 328 (1987), he was entitled to
    its benefit.       The amended ALOFAR was accompanied by a "motion to
    file an amended FAR application late," which the SJC allowed.                   The
    SJC denied further appellate review without comment on September 6,
    2002.
    Given this chronology, there are two possible dates of
    finality: November 18, 1996 or September 6, 2002.5                   We know that
    the SJC has the power to overlook the untimeliness of an ALOFAR and
    sometimes considers a late application on the merits.                   See, e.g.,
    Commonwealth v. O'Neil, 
    765 N.E.2d 767
    , 767 n.1 (Mass. 2002).                   But
    the   question     is     whether    the   SJC's    actions   here   reopened   the
    finality of the criminal conviction in 2002.               See 2 R. Hertz & J.S.
    Liebman, Federal Habeas Corpus Practice & Procedure § 25.6 (5th ed.
    2001) (suggesting that a state court may choose to delay the point
    5
    In fact, the latter date may well be extended by ninety days
    to encompass the period in which a petition for certiorari to the
    Supreme Court of the United States could be filed.      See, e.g.,
    Griffith, 
    479 U.S. at
    321 n.6. Because this ninety-day shift makes
    no difference here, we use September 6, 2002 as a convenient
    shorthand.
    -28-
    of finality of a criminal judgment and that, since the non-
    retroactivity doctrine serves the interests of the states, a
    federal court may be required to respect this decision on habeas
    review).
    The answer to these questions will be conclusive here.
    After all, if the petitioner's conviction became final in 2002,
    then Gray applies because it was decided beforehand.             Otherwise,
    Richardson controls.        As we explain below, the result of our
    analysis of the confrontation issue hinges on which of these
    precedents governs.
    2.    The Effect if 2002 is the Date of Finality.          We turn
    next to the effect of a 2002 date of finality on the constitutional
    propriety    of    the   trial   justice's   evidentiary     ruling.      The
    respondent consistently has argued that the date for determining
    clearly established law was in 1996.          But the respondent gave a
    particular reason, and that reason is wrong: the respondent posits
    that because the SJC summarily denied further appellate review, the
    contours of "clearly established Federal law" should be defined
    with reference to the date of the Appeals Court decision (which
    antedated    Gray).        The   district    court   found    this     theory
    unconvincing, see Foxworth I, slip op. at 5, and so do we.
    The respondent's theory is based on an incorrect premise.
    To support it, the respondent cites Justice O'Connor's locution
    that, under the AEDPA, the term "clearly established Federal law"
    -29-
    means "the holdings, as opposed to the dicta, of this Court's
    decisions as of the time of the relevant state-court decision."
    Williams, 
    529 U.S. at 412
    .           The respondent reads the phrase
    "relevant state-court decision" as referring for all purposes to
    the last reasoned state-court decision.
    This   reading   is    untenable.      Close   perscrutation    of
    Williams discloses nothing in the Court's constituent opinions that
    indicates any intention on Justice O'Connor's part either to modify
    or to undercut the bright-line rule of Teague v. Lane, 
    489 U.S. 288
    , 310 (1989) (effectively limiting the consideration of new
    constitutional rules of criminal procedure in cases on collateral
    review to those rules announced before the petitioner's conviction
    became final).    The opposite is true.         Justice O'Connor's opinion
    stated that "whatever would qualify as an old rule under our Teague
    jurisprudence will constitute 'clearly established Federal law, as
    determined   by   the   Supreme   Court    of   the   United   States'   under
    § 2254(d)(1)."    
    529 U.S. at 412
    .     That is a frank recognition that
    the AEDPA has neither altered nor eroded the marker laid down by
    Teague.   This recognition is fully consistent with Part III of
    Justice Stevens's lead opinion, joined by Justice O'Connor; there,
    Justice Stevens stated that "[t]he threshold question under AEDPA
    is whether [the petitioner] seeks to apply a rule of law that was
    clearly established at the time his state-court conviction became
    final."   Williams, 
    529 U.S. at 390
     (emphasis supplied).
    -30-
    Griffith removes any vestige of doubt. We have read that
    decision as establishing that "[i]f [a] conviction is not yet final
    when the Supreme Court announces [a] rule, then inferior courts
    must apply that rule to the defendant's case."     Derman v. United
    States, 
    298 F.3d 34
    , 39 (1st Cir. 2002) (citing Griffith, 
    479 U.S. at 322
    ).   By contrast, if the conviction is already final, then the
    defendant ordinarily — there are special circumstances, but none
    that are relevant here — may not avail himself of the newly
    announced rule.     See Teague, 439 U.S. at 310.   It is, therefore,
    evident that finality, not the date of the last reasoned decision,
    is the principal determinant of whether a "new" rule can be applied
    to an "old" case.
    Finality means that "a judgment of conviction has been
    rendered, the availability of appeal exhausted, and the time for a
    petition for certiorari [has] elapsed or a petition for certiorari
    [filed and] finally denied."   Griffith, 
    479 U.S. at
    321 n.6.   Under
    this definition, if the petitioner's conviction was final no
    earlier than September 6, 2002, Gray would control.    See Currie v.
    Matesanz, 
    281 F.3d 261
    , 266 (1st Cir. 2002).
    To recapitulate, both Teague and Griffith remain good
    law.   Those cases mean what they say.   Together, they lead to the
    inexorable conclusion that if the petitioner's conviction was not
    "final" until after Gray was decided by the Supreme Court, the
    petitioner is entitled to the benefit of Gray.
    -31-
    We    add    a   coda.     While   this   result     is    dictated    by
    precedent, it also makes good sense from a policy standpoint.                      The
    construct advocated by the respondent would allow a state court to
    subvert Griffith and deny criminal defendants the benefit of new
    Supreme Court precedent by the simple expedient of summarily
    affirming a lower court's decision.             That would give state courts
    a perverse incentive to avoid addressing constitutional claims in
    contemporaneous         terms   while     insulating     their        actions    from
    subsequent federal habeas review.              That would be an unattractive
    prospect.
    The respondent has yet another string to his bow.                      He
    argues that even if Gray applies, the trial justice's ruling should
    be upheld.       Initially, that argument requires us to consider the
    standard of review applicable to the state court's rejection of the
    Sixth Amendment claim.
    On this point, the respondent urges us to use AEDPA's
    customary    "unreasonable           application"     standard.          
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). The petitioner resists. He notes that this standard
    applies only to a "claim that was adjudicated on the merits in
    State court proceedings." 
    Id.
     § 2254(d).               Because Gray was never
    addressed by the state courts, he proposes de novo review.                        See
    Fortini v. Murphy, 
    257 F.3d 39
    , 47 (1st Cir. 2001) (stating that a
    federal court "can hardly defer to the state court on an issue that
    the state court did not address"); cf. Brown v. Maloney, 267 F.3d
    -32-
    36, 40 (1st Cir. 2001) (declaring that absent "reasoning on a
    holding from the state court on [an] issue," it cannot be said that
    the claim was adjudicated on the merits).
    The precise question raised by the dueling arguments is
    whether    a    state-court     decision    disposing     of    a   federal
    constitutional claim on the merits without a reasoned application
    of the most pertinent Supreme Court authority is an adjudication
    that   comes   within   the   AEDPA's   purview.   This    is   a   question
    different from that which we confronted in Fortini.             The Appeals
    Court, citing Bruton, squarely decided the Sixth Amendment claim
    and elaborated its reasoning.           But that decision did not take
    account of Gray; indeed, it could not have done so; the Supreme
    Court decided Gray after the Appeals Court issued its decision. In
    these uncharted waters, ascertainment of the appropriate level of
    review presents a vexing question.
    Deferring the answers to difficult procedural questions
    until the law develops is often the path of prudence.           We have the
    luxury of taking that path here because nothing turns on the
    standard of review.       Even were we to accept the respondent's
    argument and evaluate the state court's resolution of the Sixth
    Amendment claim through the AEDPA's more deferential prism, we
    would conclude that the petitioner is entitled to relief. Thus, we
    assume for ease in administration — but do not decide — that the
    -33-
    AEDPA's "unreasonable application" standard pertains to the state
    courts' resolution of the Sixth Amendment claim.
    This    brings   us    to    the    merits     of    the   respondent's
    contention that even if the petitioner's conviction did not become
    final until 2002 and Gray therefore applies, the trial justice's
    ruling was neither contrary to nor an unreasonable application of
    Gray. This argument requires us to exercise the trilogy of Supreme
    Court cases that collectively constitute the controlling precedents
    for the petitioner's Confrontation Clause claim.                         This trilogy
    includes Bruton, Richardson, and Gray.                      We start with a brief
    synopsis of each decision.
    In Bruton, the Supreme Court proscribed the introduction
    of a nontestifying defendant's extrajudicial statements that are
    "powerfully incriminating" as to a jointly-tried codefendant.                      
    391 U.S. at 135
    .         The Court made pellucid that the vice inherent in
    such a tactic cannot reliably be abated through the use of limiting
    instructions.        
    Id.
     (explaining that "the risk that the jury will
    not, or cannot, follow [such] instructions is so great, and the
    consequences     of    failure      so    vital   to   the    defendant,    that   the
    practical and human limitations of the jury system cannot be
    ignored").
    In Richardson, the Court refined the Bruton rule.                    It
    held   that    "the    Confrontation        Clause     is    not   violated   by   the
    admission of a nontestifying codefendant's confession with a proper
    -34-
    limiting instruction when . . . the confession is redacted to
    eliminate not only the [objecting] defendant's name, but any
    reference to his or her existence."                    
    481 U.S. 211
    .        Under this
    refinement, "[s]tatements that are incriminating only when linked
    to other evidence in the case do not trigger application of
    Bruton's preclusionary rule."               United States v. Vega Molina, 
    407 F.3d 511
    , 520 (1st Cir. 2005).
    Richardson left open the question of whether Bruton's
    prophylaxis      extended     to    a     statement      in   which   the    objecting
    defendant's   name      has   been      replaced       with   a   symbol    or   neutral
    pronoun.   Gray answered that question, holding that "redactions
    that   replace    a    proper      name    with   an    obvious    blank,     the   word
    'delete,' a symbol, or similarly notify the jury that a name has
    been deleted are similar enough to Bruton's unredacted confessions
    as to warrant the same legal results."                   
    523 U.S. at 195
    .           Under
    this   regime,    an    inquiring         court   must    judge    the     efficacy   of
    redaction on a case-by-case basis, paying careful attention to both
    a statement's text and the context in which it is offered.                          Vega
    Molina, 
    407 F.3d at 520
    .
    In this corner of the law, one size does not fit all.
    One case may involve numerous actors and events, such that no
    compelling inference can be drawn that a symbol or neutral pronoun
    refers to a specific defendant.              A different case may involve few
    actors and events, such that a symbol or neutral pronoun becomes
    -35-
    transparent and leaves little doubt in the listener's mind about
    the identity of the person whose name has been removed.
    This brings us to the instant case.                  In affirming the
    trial justice's admission of Logan's statement, the Appeals Court
    wrote:
    Foxworth's reliance [on Bruton] is misplaced,
    however, because (a) the challenged statement
    as redacted did not name or necessarily
    implicate    Foxworth;   (b)   it    was   not
    "powerfully"    inculpatory,    since    Logan
    concededly had left the premises before and
    did not personally observe the shooting; (c)
    the Commonwealth's case rested primarily on
    the eyewitness identification of Foxworth as
    the shooter; (d) the prosecutor did not use
    the statement as substantive evidence against
    Foxworth but rather against Logan and in
    support of a joint venture theory; and (e) the
    judge provided an appropriate instruction to
    obviate the Bruton concerns.
    Evaluating   the     Appeals    Court's     ruling       against       Bruton     and
    Richardson, we hold that it was not an unreasonable application of
    clearly established Federal law.          See infra Part II(C)(3).              Thus,
    the   petitioner's   claim     depends    wholly    on    the    refinement       and
    extension of the doctrine that Gray heralded.
    Here    (as   in    the   district      court),       the    petitioner
    challenges   the   Appeals     Court's    recitation      on    several    levels,
    primarily arguing that the redacted statement left no doubt as to
    his identity and, in the bargain, powerfully incriminated him.                     He
    succeeded in convincing the district court that the Appeals Court's
    -36-
    rejection of this challenge constituted an unreasonable application
    of Gray.    See Foxworth I, slip op. at 19.
    The respondent assigns error, maintaining that Gray and
    this case are horses of a different hue.       In a sense, that is so.
    In Gray, the redaction — a blank space — was clear on the face of
    the statement.    Here, a clumsy attempt was made to redact Logan's
    statement in a way that might serve to conceal from the jury the
    fact that a redaction had been made.
    Still, this difference seems to be of little moment.          As
    said, this is an "unreasonable application" case; thus, the mere
    existence of a slight factual distinction does not signify that the
    statement    in   question    necessarily   spins    outside      of   Gray's
    precedential orbit.     What matters is that the situation at hand
    fits   comfortably   within    the    parameters    of   Gray's    doctrinal
    teachings.
    We have carefully examined both the text of the redacted
    statement and the context in which it was admitted.            We conclude
    that its admission was an unreasonable application of Gray.              Our
    reasons follow.
    First, the redaction is obvious.        In and of itself, the
    use of the designation "Mr. X" would have caused any rational juror
    to raise an eyebrow.    See United States v. Peterson, 
    140 F.3d 819
    ,
    822 (9th Cir. 1998) (finding Bruton error where "person X" was
    substituted for defendant's name); see also Malinski v. New York,
    -37-
    
    324 U.S. 401
    , 430 (1945) (Rutledge, J., dissenting) (describing
    substitution of a name in a confession with "X" or "Y" as "devices
    . . . so obvious as perhaps to emphasize the identity of those they
    purported to conceal").
    Here, however, we need not muse about raised eyebrows and
    other such subtleties.           Detective Flynn drove this point home,
    testifying that "Mr. X" was a substitute for the name of the person
    actually identified by Logan. Furthermore, the prosecutor referred
    to   Logan's    statement   as    "the    redacted     statement."      To   cinch
    matters, the copy given to the jury had the phrase "Mr. X" in a
    different font (which did not exactly fit the spaces left by the
    excision of the petitioner's name).               It follows inexorably from
    these facts that the use of the pseudonym "Mr. X" represented an
    "obvious deletion" that "encourag[ed] the jury to speculate about
    the reference."     Gray, 
    523 U.S. at 193
    .
    With knowledge of the redaction, it was child's play for
    the jury to identify the petitioner as "Mr. X."                 There were only
    three defendants — Logan, Christian, and the petitioner — and no
    other suspects. Logan, as the author of the statement, could not
    have been "Mr. X." Flynn's testimony unambiguously eliminated
    Christian from consideration.            That left the petitioner.
    Of    course,    the    fact    that   it    was   obvious   that   the
    petitioner was "Mr. X" does not necessarily render Logan's redacted
    statement powerfully incriminating. In this regard, the respondent
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    points out that the statement did not designate "Mr. X" as the
    shooter.    That disclaimer is true as far as it goes, but it does not
    take the respondent very far.
    To recapitulate, the redacted statement revealed that "Mr.
    X" had gone to McLean's apartment because McLean had sold him some
    bad cocaine; once there, "Mr. X" argued with McLean; then, after
    "Mr. X" had departed, Logan saw him reentering the building with a
    gun   tucked   into     his   waistband;    and   shots    were    heard   shortly
    thereafter.       Given the chain of events chronicled in Logan's
    redacted statement, the inference that the petitioner shot McLean
    was virtually inescapable.         As a practical matter, the statement
    directly implicated the petitioner and powerfully incriminated him.6
    Under Gray, the redacted statement should have been excluded.
    That conclusion does not end our odyssey. Even though the
    admission    of   the   redacted   statement      violated    Gray,    the   AEDPA
    standard    requires     more   than    a   showing   of   trial    error.     See
    McCambridge, 
    303 F.3d at 36
    .           At a bare minimum, the error must be
    sufficiently egregious to comprise an unreasonable application of
    6
    The Appeals Court made much of the trial justice's
    instructions limiting the jury's use of the statement to the case
    against Logan. Where a nontestifying codefendant's statement is
    powerfully incriminating, however, a limiting instruction is cold
    comfort. See Bruton, 
    391 U.S. at 135
    . That is especially so in
    this case since Logan was charged with murder under a joint-venture
    theory, and the petitioner was a likely candidate for membership in
    any such joint venture.
    -39-
    clearly established federal constitutional principles.         
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1).     That standard is satisfied here.
    We need not tarry.   The range of reasonable outcomes here
    is small because the applicable constitutional rule — explained in
    Gray — is narrow, see United States v. Thayer, 
    204 F.3d 1352
    , 1355
    (11th Cir. 2000) (describing Bruton rule as "narrow").       The outcome
    reached by the Appeals Court (albeit understandable because Gray had
    not yet been decided) is patently offensive to that rule.       There is
    simply no way to defend it: the inferences necessary to conclude
    that the petitioner was "Mr. X" and that "Mr. X" was the shooter are
    nose-on-the-face plain, and the inculpatory thrust of the statement
    is potent. We hold, therefore, that if the state conviction was not
    final until 2002, Gray applies; and, applying Gray to this case, it
    would run afoul of clearly established Federal law to find no
    violation of Gray on these facts.
    As a rear-guard action, the respondent suggests that any
    Sixth Amendment violation was harmless.           This suggestion lacks
    merit.
    Once again, we pause to clarify the applicable standard
    of review.    Although the Appeals Court did not find a Bruton error,
    it nevertheless hedged its bets.          It added that "[e]ven if there
    were error, [in connection with the admission of Logan's statement],
    it was harmless, because the evidence related to a noncrucial issue
    . . . and was at most merely cumulative of evidence properly before
    -40-
    the jury."    The court cited Commonwealth v. Sinnott, 
    507 N.E.2d 699
    (Mass. 1987), which holds that a Bruton error does not require
    reversal if it was "harmless beyond a reasonable doubt."               
    Id. at 705
    .   In other words, it applied the federal standard for harmless
    constitutional error applicable on direct review.              See Chapman v.
    California, 
    386 U.S. 18
    , 24 (1967).
    That determination of harmlessness does not engender AEDPA
    deference.     The Supreme Court recently instructed federal habeas
    courts to perform a straightforward harmless error analysis under
    Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 638
    ,           rather than review a state court's
    harmless-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt                     determination        for
    unreasonableness.     Fry v. Pliler, 
    127 S. Ct. 2321
    , 2327 (2007); see
    Delaney, 
    522 F.3d at 105
    .         This is so because the more forgiving
    Brecht test subsumes the hybrid Chapman/AEDPA test.              Fry, 127 St.
    Ct. at 2327.      We proceed accordingly.
    On collateral review of trial error, the test for harmless
    error is whether the error had a "substantial and injurious effect
    or influence in determining the jury's verdict."             Sinnott v. Duval,
    
    139 F.3d 12
    , 14 (1st Cir. 1998) (quoting Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 637
    ).
    The burden of establishing harmlessness rests with the state qua
    respondent.      O'Neal v. McAninch, 
    513 U.S. 432
    , 437 (1995).         If the
    habeas   court    entertains     "grave   doubt   as   to   harmlessness,   the
    petitioner must win."      
    Id.
    -41-
    The identification of the shooter was the pivotal issue
    in    this   case.       The   prosecution's        case    in    chief,    though
    constitutionally sufficient, was painfully thin.                  See supra Part
    II(B).    Other than Logan's statement, the only evidence bearing on
    identification was Hobson's testimony.            That testimony was scarcely
    unassailable.        Logan's statement bolstered Hobson's account by
    placing the petitioner at the murder scene, armed and with a motive,
    immediately before the shooting. It also supported Hobson's version
    of the events leading up to the slaying as it suggested that McLean
    was chased by one man rather than two.
    At the trial-court level, this case was close.                In close
    cases, there is often a tipping point. We think that it is probable
    that Logan's statement tipped the balance.                  The statement lent
    significant weight to the word of the lone witness who identified
    the petitioner as the shooter and, as the Bruton Court recognized,
    
    391 U.S. at 135
    , the trial justice's limiting instructions were not
    an    effective    safeguard   against      the    jury's    exposure      to    such
    powerfully incriminating evidence.                Indeed, the impact of the
    statement is adequately evinced by the fact that the jury convicted
    the petitioner while acquitting Logan.
    In sum, we agree with the district court, Foxworth I, slip
    op. at 23, that the admission of the redacted statement likely had
    a    substantial   and   injurious   influence       on    the   outcome    of    the
    -42-
    proceedings. At the very least, there is grave doubt. Accordingly,
    the petitioner is entitled to a new trial if Gray applies.
    3.    The Effect if 1996 is the Date of Finality.               If the
    petitioner's conviction became final in 1996 rather than final in
    2002, the case plays out differently. Because the Supreme Court had
    not yet decided Gray,7 the relevant "clearly established Federal
    law" would be capped by Richardson.               Under that precedent — and
    without the benefit of Gray — the Appeals Court's decision cannot
    be said to be either contrary to or an unreasonable application of
    clearly     established    Supreme      Court   precedent.      After   all,      the
    Richardson Court specifically left open the question, implicated in
    this case, of whether a Confrontation Clause problem exists when
    "the defendant's name has been replaced by a symbol or neutral
    pronoun."     
    481 U.S. at
    211 n.5.       The Court's acknowledgment that an
    issue remains fairly debatable precludes any credible argument that
    a   state   court's    decision    on    the    issue   is   contrary   to   or    an
    unreasonable       application    of    clearly   established     Supreme     Court
    precedent.8       See L'Abbe v. DiPaolo, 
    311 F.3d 93
    , 98 (1st Cir. 2002).
    7
    We note that the Court has not directed that Gray should be
    applied retroactively.    See Teague, 
    489 U.S. at 310
    ; see also
    Garcia v. United States, 
    278 F.3d 1210
    , 1216 (11th Cir. 2002)
    (refusing to apply Gray retroactively).
    8
    The closeness of the question left open in Richardson is
    emphasized by the fact that in the subsequent decision in Gray four
    justices dissented.     See Gray, 
    523 U.S. at 200
     (Scalia, J.,
    dissenting).
    -43-
    4.   The Decision to Certify.        It thus appears that the
    date of finality, which will determine whether Gray or Richardson
    is the controlling precedent, will be dispositive of this aspect of
    the respondent's appeal.        The SJC has offered no real guidance on
    that issue, and the correct answer remains shrouded in uncertainty.
    Moreover, the case is obviously important: a murder conviction hangs
    in the balance. Consequently, we deem it appropriate to certify the
    question concerning the date of finality to the SJC.            See, e.g., In
    re Engage, Inc., 
    544 F.3d 50
    , 57 n.10 (1st Cir. 2008) (approving sua
    sponte certification in appropriate cases); Brown v. Crown Equip.
    Corp., 
    501 F.3d 75
    , 77 (1st Cir. 2007) (similar).
    This case fits the model for certification.                We may
    certify doubtful questions to a state supreme court in cases, such
    as this, where we find no controlling precedent, where the answer
    is unclear, and where the answer will be determinative of an issue
    in the litigation.      See Boston Gas Co. v. Century Indem. Co., 
    529 F.3d 8
    , 15 (1st Cir. 2008); Nieves v. Univ. of P.R., 
    7 F.3d 270
    , 274
    (1st   Cir.   1993).     And,    moreover,    the   SJC   has   indicated   a
    willingness,    under    such    circumstances,     to    answer   certified
    questions.    See Mass. S.J.C. R. 1:03.
    III.   CONCLUSION
    We need go no further.     For the reasons elucidated above,
    we reverse the district court's ukase holding the evidence of the
    petitioner's guilt insufficient.           At the same time, however, we
    -44-
    withhold decision on the district court's ruling that the petitioner
    is entitled to relief on the basis of a Sixth Amendment violation.
    The outcome of that question turns on whether the petitioner's
    conviction became final in 1996 or 2002.   We certify that question
    to the SJC as per the order filed in conjunction herewith.   Pending
    that court's response, we retain appellate jurisdiction.
    So Ordered.
    -45-