Lumataw v. Holder ( 2009 )


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  •             United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 08-1757
    HENDERSON M. LUMATAW,
    Petitioner,
    v.
    ERIC H. HOLDER, JR.,*
    ATTORNEY GENERAL OF THE UNITED STATES,
    Respondent.
    ON PETITION FOR REVIEW OF AN ORDER OF
    THE BOARD OF IMMIGRATION APPEALS
    Before
    Torruella, Circuit Judge,
    Tashima,** Senior Circuit Judge,
    and Lipez, Circuit Judge.
    William A. Hahn and Hahn & Matkov, on brief for petitioner.
    Janice K. Redfern, Senior Litigation Counsel, Office of
    Immigration Litigation, Michael F. Hertz, Acting Assistant Attorney
    General, and Linda S. Wernery, Assistant Director, on brief for
    respondent.
    September 9, 2009
    *
    Pursuant to Fed. R. App. P. 43(c)(2), Attorney General Eric H.
    Holder, Jr. is substituted for former Attorney General Michael B.
    Mukasey as respondent.
    **
    Of the Ninth Circuit, sitting by designation.
    TORRUELLA,    Circuit       Judge.   Petitioner      Henderson   M.
    Lumataw, a native and citizen of Indonesia, seeks review of a
    decision    issued   by   the   Board    of   Immigration   Appeals    ("BIA")
    affirming     the    Immigration    Judge's      ("IJ's")   denial    of     his
    application    for   political     asylum,    withholding   of    removal    and
    protection under the Convention Against Torture ("CAT").1              Lumataw
    entered the United States in 1995 and filed his I-589 application
    for asylum in 2005 on the basis of past persecution and fear of
    future persecution in Indonesia on account of his religious status
    as a practicing Christian.         The BIA affirmed the IJ's denial of
    asylum on the ground that Lumataw failed to allege sufficient
    changed circumstances in Indonesia to excuse his failure to timely
    file his asylum application within one year of his 1995 arrival.
    The BIA also agreed with the IJ's conclusion that Lumataw had not
    established past persecution and that he would not "more likely
    than not" be persecuted in the future if he returned to Indonesia.
    In this petition for review, Lumataw challenges the
    agency's determinations on the merits of his asylum claim, but also
    alleges that the BIA erred as a matter of law in holding his
    application to be untimely because the one-year filing deadline had
    not yet been enacted into law at the time of his initial entry.
    After careful review of the record, we hold that the IJ and BIA
    1
    Since Lumataw did not raise his CAT claim in his appellate
    brief, that basis for his application is deemed waived. Oroh v.
    Holder, 
    561 F.3d 62
    , 64 n.1 (1st Cir. 2009).
    -2-
    committed prejudicial legal error in assessing the timeliness of
    Lumataw's petition. We thus grant the instant petition and remand.
    I.   Background
    A. Factual Background
    Henderson M. Lumataw is a 35 year-old citizen and native
    of Indonesia.      He identifies himself as a Christian Protestant.
    The incident upon which Lumataw's claim of past persecution is
    premised took place in Indonesia in August 1995.                   On that date,
    while traveling through Indonesia, Lumataw was accosted by a thief
    who was subsequently joined by three additional attackers. Lumataw
    identified these individuals as Muslims due to their headdresses
    and sarong attire.        Seeing the cross necklace around Lumataw's
    neck, one of the attackers accused Lumataw of being Christian. The
    attacker pointed a knife at Lumataw's neck and threatened to kill
    him, saying "I want to kill you Christian."                Ultimately, Lumataw
    escaped the attackers after they had robbed him of his cross
    necklace. Lumataw was very shaken by the incident. Thereafter, he
    left Indonesia for the United States.
    Lumataw entered the United States on September 12, 1995
    on a non-immigrant visitor with authorization to remain for six
    months.     According to Lumataw, he overstayed out of fear of being
    threatened, tortured, or killed if he returned to Indonesia,
    because of his status as a Christian.            Lumataw explained, however,
    that   he    did   not   apply    for   asylum     right    away    because   the
    -3-
    interreligious conflict between Muslims and Christians was not as
    perilous in 1995 as it would later become.      Country conditions
    evidence on the record, including U.S. State Department Human
    Rights Reports, confirms the increase in interreligious tensions in
    Indonesia in the late 1990s and early 2000s.   On October 5, 2002,
    in New Hampshire, Lumataw married Vonnie Golioth ("Golioth"), also
    a Protestant Christian of Indonesian nationality.
    B.   Procedural History
    On January 27, 2003, Golioth applied for asylum and
    Lumataw was included in his wife's application. On April 11, 2003,
    the Department of Homeland Security ("DHS") served him with a
    Notice to Appear ("NTA") charging him with being removable under 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(1)(B), as an alien who remained in the United
    States for a time longer than permitted.   In 2005, Lumataw filed
    his own application for asylum under § 208 of the Immigration and
    Nationality Act ("INA"), and in the alternative, withholding of
    removal under § 241(b)(3) of the INA and under the CAT.2
    1.   The IJ Decision
    On January 26, 2006 a hearing was held before an IJ on
    the merits of Lumataw's application.     In addition to Lumataw's
    testimony, Golioth also testified about incidents of violence and
    2
    Lumataw had requested that the IJ consolidate his separate
    asylum application with his wife's application, but the request was
    denied.
    -4-
    intimidation inflicted on Christians by Muslims in Indonesia.                   The
    IJ issued an oral decision that day.
    The IJ identified the "timeliness" of Lumataw's asylum
    application as the threshold question for the court, noting that
    Lumataw's asylum application was "filed approximately 10 years
    after he entered the United States."3            The IJ reasoned that "while
    periods   of    social   conflict    can      intervene   between   [Lumataw's]
    arrival in the United States and the time he applied for asylum,
    [Lumataw] has not established that circumstances have changed to
    the point where his eligibility for asylum has been materially
    affected."     Finding no evidence of "a change in circumstances that
    would justify a late filing in this case," the IJ held that
    Lumataw's application for asylum was untimely.
    As    to   the    material    aspects     of   Lumataw's      remaining
    withholding of removal claim, the IJ found Lumataw to be generally
    credible, but concluded that even if Lumataw's attackers were
    motivated by animosity towards Christians, one isolated attack, far
    from   Lumataw's      home   or   workplace,     with     no   injury,    did   not
    constitute     past   persecution.         Finding    that     Lumataw    had   not
    established past persecution, no presumption of future persecution
    3
    As explained infra, normally, an asylum application must be
    filed within one-year of an alien's arrival, unless he arrives
    prior to April 1, 1997, in which case, the filing deadline is one-
    year from that date. See 
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
    (a)(2)(B); 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)(2)(ii).      Exceptions do apply.       See 
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
    (a)(2)(D).
    -5-
    applied either.     Furthermore, the IJ concluded that Lumataw could
    not prove it was "more likely than not" that he would be persecuted
    if he returned to Indonesia, and thus, the IJ also denied his
    application for withholding of removal under section 241(b)(3) of
    the INA.   The IJ also noted that country conditions in Indonesia do
    not support the conclusion that Lumataw would "more likely than
    not" be persecuted, should he be removed to Indonesia.           Lumataw's
    application for CAT relief was also denied.              Finally, the IJ
    concluded that Lumataw was eligible for voluntary departure.
    2. The BIA Decision
    On May 16, 2008, the BIA dismissed Lumataw's appeal.          On
    the issue of timeliness, the BIA "agree[d] with the [IJ] that
    [Lumataw] had failed to establish sufficient changed circumstances
    in Indonesia to excuse his failure to timely file his application
    for asylum."    Although Lumataw had argued to the BIA that the IJ
    had   failed   to   acknowledge   his   inclusion   in   his   wife's   2003
    application, the BIA held that Lumataw "failed to demonstrate that
    the [IJ's] omission of this fact supports a finding that his
    failure to file his application for asylum within one year of his
    arrival in the United States in 1995 should be excused based on
    changed circumstances in Indonesia."
    As to the merits of Lumataw's alternative withholding of
    removal claim, the BIA adopted the reasoning of the IJ that Lumataw
    had failed to establish either past persecution or that he would
    -6-
    "more likely than not" be persecuted in the future, so as to
    support withholding of removal.    The BIA also rejected his claims
    under the CAT.
    A timely petition for review in this court followed.   In
    this petition Lumataw argues that the IJ and BIA erred as a matter
    of law in holding his asylum application to be untimely, as those
    decisions rested on Lumataw's failure to file within one year of
    his initial entry in 1995 when no filing deadline had yet been
    enacted into law, as well as a failure to consider his inclusion in
    his wife's earlier-filed petition. Lumataw further argues that the
    IJ and BIA erred in ruling that Lumataw failed to make out a case
    of past persecution. Finally, Lumataw argues that should we remand
    on the first issue, he should be entitled, on remand, to present an
    asylum claim based on "well-founded fear of future persecution."
    II. Discussion
    A.   Applicable Law
    "To establish eligibility for asylum, an alien must prove
    either past persecution, which gives rise to an inference of future
    persecution, or establish a well founded fear of future persecution
    on account of her race, religion, nationality, membership in a
    social group, or political opinion."    Hem v. Mukasey, 
    514 F.3d 67
    ,
    69 (1st Cir. 2008).   In contrast, "[t]o qualify for withholding of
    removal, an alien must show that, more likely than not, he faces
    persecution on account of one of [these] five protected grounds,
    -7-
    . . . should he return to his homeland."            Pan v. Gonzales, 
    489 F.3d 80
    , 85-86 (1st Cir. 2007) (emphasis added); see also 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(42)(A); 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.16
    (b)(2).                 "This 'more likely
    than not' standard is harder for an alien to satisfy than the
    'reasonable possibility' standard for showing a well-founded fear
    of future persecution in asylum cases."             Pan, 
    489 F.3d at 86
    .
    Unlike a withholding of removal application, which is not
    subject to a filing deadline, see 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a), "[a]n
    asylum application must ordinarily be filed 'within one year after
    the date of the alien's arrival in the United States,' or by
    April 1, 1998, whichever is later."           Oroh, 
    561 F.3d at 66
     (internal
    citations and quotation marks omitted); see also 
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
    (a)
    (2)(B); 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)(2)(ii) (explaining that the "1-year
    period shall be calculated from the date of the alien's last
    arrival in the United States or April 1, 1997, whichever is
    later").     Prior to the enactment of this one-year bar, effective
    April   1,   1997,   there   was   no    mandated    time    limit   for   filing
    applications for asylum.       See In re F-P-R-, 
    24 I. & N. Dec. 681
    ,
    685 (B.I.A. 2009) (referencing Congress "enact[ment] [of] the 1-
    year filing period in 1996.").
    An application for asylum may be considered beyond the
    one-year deadline, however, "if an applicant demonstrates 'changed
    circumstances which materially affect the applicant's eligibility
    for asylum or extraordinary circumstances relating to the delay in
    -8-
    filing.'" Oroh, 
    561 F.3d at
    66 (citing 
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
    (a)(2)(D); 
    8 C.F.R. §§ 1208.4
    (a)(4), (5)); Rashad v. Mukasey, 
    554 F.3d 1
    , 4 (1st
    Cir. 2009).      "Changed circumstances" may include "[c]hanges in
    conditions in the applicant's country of nationality" or "[c]hanges
    in   the   applicant's     circumstances      that   materially    affect   the
    applicant's eligibility for asylum, including changes in applicable
    U.S. law and activities the applicant becomes involved in outside
    the country of feared persecution that place the applicant at
    risk."     
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)(4)(i).        "Extraordinary circumstances"
    refers to "events or factors directly related to the failure to
    meet the 1-year deadline."        
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)(5).        An applicant
    attempting to demonstrate changed or extraordinary circumstances
    must also demonstrate that he "filed the application 'within a
    reasonable period' given those circumstances."            Oroh, 
    561 F.3d at 66
     (quoting 
    8 C.F.R. §§ 1208.4
    (a)(4), (5)).
    B.   Standard of Review
    "Usually, this court confines its review to the BIA's
    order that is being challenged by the petitioner."                Rashad, 
    554 F.3d at 4
    .    "However, when as here, the BIA adopts the decision of
    the IJ, and provides some analysis of its own, the Court reviews
    both decisions."     
    Id.
    We will uphold the factual findings of the IJ and BIA "if
    they   are   supported     by   reasonable,    substantial,   and   probative
    evidence on the record considered as a whole."           Acevedo-Aguilar v.
    -9-
    Mukasey, 
    517 F.3d 8
    , 9 (1st Cir. 2008) (internal quotation marks
    omitted).   Under the substantial evidence standard, this court may
    not reverse the decision below unless the record compels a contrary
    conclusion.     See INS v. Elías-Zacarías, 
    502 U.S. 478
    , 481 (1992)
    (applying this standard); Acevedo-Aguilar, 
    517 F.3d at 9
     (same).
    Whether a petitioner has demonstrated past persecution is usually
    a factual determination subject only to the highly deferential
    substantial evidence standard.             See Elías-Zacarías, 
    502 U.S. at 483-84
    ; Pangemanan v. Holder, 
    569 F.3d 1
    , 3 (1st Cir. 2009); Silva
    v. Gonzales, 
    463 F.3d 68
    , 72 (1st Cir. 2006).
    Certain agency factual determinations are, however, by
    statute excluded from judicial review.          See 
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
    (a)(3).4
    As   relevant   to   this    appeal,   §   1158(a)(3)    "divests   courts      of
    jurisdiction    to    review    determinations      of     timeliness   or     the
    applicability of exceptions to the one-year rule."              Oroh, 
    561 F.3d at 66
    .    "The only exception to this bright-line rule is contained
    in 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (a)(2)(D), which carves out an exception allowing
    courts to review 'constitutional claims or questions of law.'" 
    Id. at 62
     (quoting Hana v. Gonzales, 
    503 F.3d 39
    , 42 (1st Cir. 2007)).
    To form the basis of judicial review under § 1252(a)(2)(D), the
    alleged   "underlying       constitutional    or   legal    question    must    be
    4
    Specifically, 
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
    (a)(3) states that "[n]o court
    shall have jurisdiction to review any determination of the Attorney
    General under paragraph (2)," with paragraph 2 governing various
    bars to asylum eligibility, including time limits for application
    and exceptions thereto.
    -10-
    colorable; that is, the argument advanced must, at the very least,
    have some potential validity."    Pan, 
    489 F.3d at 84
    .
    These deferential review standards "'do[] not . . .
    preclude a court from vacating the BIA's asylum determination and
    remanding a case for further consideration where the BIA's denial
    of asylum was based upon an error of law."    Rojo v. Mukasey, 297
    Fed. App'x 709, 711 (9th Cir. 2008) (unpublished) (quoting Kotasz
    v. INS, 
    31 F.3d 847
    , 851 (9th Cir. 1994).       The harmless error
    doctrine, however, informs the propriety of remand in the face of
    legal error.   See Nadal-Ginard v. Holder, 
    558 F.3d 61
    , 69 n.7 (1st
    Cir. 2009) (citing support for proposition that harmless error
    doctrine applies to judicial review of immigration decision).
    C.   Petition for Review
    1. Timeliness
    Lumataw argues that the IJ and BIA erred as a matter of
    law in assessing the timeliness of his I-589 application for
    asylum.   This is because the BIA reasoned that Lumataw did not
    warrant an exception to the one year asylum filing deadline as he
    did not file his application within one-year of entering the United
    States. However, in 1995, and for some years thereafter, there was
    no legal requirement that an alien file an asylum application
    within one year of entry -- a fact that neither the IJ nor BIA
    recognized.    In fact, there was no deadline at all.     Thus, by
    charging Lumataw for failing to file within one year of entry, the
    -11-
    IJ and BIA attributed years of delay to Lumataw for which he was
    not legally responsible.        Lumataw argues that without even making
    a finding of when he was legally required to file for asylum, the
    BIA   could    not   conduct   any    meaningful   analysis   of   whether   an
    exception was warranted.
    Additionally, at his hearing before the IJ, Lumataw
    argued that because he had been included in his wife's January 2003
    I-589 application for asylum, it is the January 2003 date, rather
    than the date of Lumataw's personal filing in 2005, that should be
    deemed the governing time for analyzing whether an exception to the
    one-year deadline applied.           The IJ, however, erred as a matter of
    law, Lumataw argues, in failing to consider Lumataw's inclusion in
    his wife's 2003 application, noting only that petitioner filed ten
    years after his 1995 initial entry.            Thus, the IJ's "ten year"
    comment constitutes legal error, in that it shows the IJ was
    mistaken as to both the start date and end dates for analyzing
    whether changed or extraordinary circumstances excuse Lumataw's
    delay.   By adding years of additional delay to the analysis that
    did not belong, Lumataw argues that as a matter of law, neither the
    IJ nor BIA conducted an appropriate one-year exception analysis.
    The government does not dispute Lumataw's claims of
    error, but argues that Lumataw is challenging the agency's factual
    determinations regarding timeliness, which we lack jurisdiction,
    pursuant to 
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
    (a)(3), to review.             Recognizing that
    -12-
    legal or constitutional questions are nevertheless reviewable on
    appeal, see 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (a)(2)(D); Lutaaya v. Mukasey, 
    535 F.3d 63
    , 69-70 (1st Cir. 2008), the government takes the position that
    Lumataw's claims do not raise legal questions.         In support of its
    position, the government relies on decisions of this court holding
    that   agency   findings   regarding      timeliness   and   changed   or
    extraordinary circumstances are usually factual determinations
    outside this court's jurisdiction. See Hayek v. Gonzales, 
    445 F.3d 501
    , 506-07 (1st Cir. 2006).
    a.   Question of Law
    The threshold issue is, thus, whether Lumataw has alleged
    a reviewable "question of law" 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (a)(2)(D), or rather,
    a "question of fact" that is beyond our jurisdiction to review.
    We have previously held that "discretionary or factual
    determinations continue to fall outside [our] jurisdiction" and
    that "BIA findings as to timeliness and changed circumstances are
    usually factual determinations."          See Hayek, 
    445 F.3d at 507
    (emphasis added & internal quotation marks omitted). However, this
    does not mean that this Court could never have jurisdiction over a
    timeliness determination.    See    Liu v. INS, 
    508 F.3d 716
    , 721 (2d
    Cir. 2007) (making this point).           Rather, "[s]ome discretionary
    determinations do present underlying, reviewable questions of law."
    Khan v. Filip, 
    554 F.3d 681
    , 689 (7th Cir. 2009); see also Arif v.
    Mukasey, 
    509 F.3d 677
    , 680 (5th Cir. 2007) ("Although we have
    -13-
    jurisdiction to review a determination of timeliness that turns on
    a . . . question of law, we do not have jurisdiction to review
    determinations of timeliness that are based on findings of fact.").
    This is such a case.
    A reviewable "question of law" may be raised where the
    agency used the "wrong legal standard" in coming to a determination
    on a discretionary decision.           See Filip, 
    554 F.3d at 689
    ; Liu, 
    508 F.3d at 721
    ; Khan v. Gonzales, 
    495 F.3d 31
    , 35 (2d Cir. 2007); see,
    e.g.,    Tariq    v.   Keisler,      
    505 F.3d 650
    ,   656   (7th   Cir.   2007)
    (recognizing that we retain jurisdiction to determine whether the
    IJ   erred   in   requiring     "exceptional       circumstances"      instead     of
    "extraordinary circumstances").             Similarly, a reviewable "question
    of law" is raised where the agency is charged with misconstruing
    its own regulations in reaching a decision.                     See Rotinsulu v.
    Mukasey, 
    515 F.3d 68
    , 72 (1st Cir. 2008) (explaining that "[a]n
    agency has an obligation to abide by its own regulations" and
    "[t]he   failure       to   follow   an     applicable    regulation    may   be    a
    sufficient ground for vacation of an agency's decision, resulting
    in a remand"); Cardoso-Tlaseca v. Gonzales, 
    460 F.3d 1102
    , 1103-04
    (9th Cir. 2006) (holding that the court had jurisdiction over
    alien's petition for review because the alien's claim that the BIA
    misconstrued a regulation so as to bar his motion to reopen
    presented a question of law); see also H. Rep. 109-72, at 175-76
    (2006) (explaining in conference report on the REAL ID Act that use
    -14-
    of the term "question of law," as codified in § 1252(a)(2)(D)
    refers to a "question regarding the construction of a statute").
    We agree with Lumataw that the question of whether the IJ
    and BIA applied the correct filing deadline in assessing the
    timeliness of his asylum application, constitutes a "question of
    law" underlying the agency's timeliness determinations.                    This is
    not a case where the alien alleges that "the agency got the facts
    wrong."     Usman v. Holder, 
    566 F.3d 262
    , 268 (1st Cir. 2009)
    (citations omitted).         The relevant facts, namely, the dates that
    Lumataw entered the country and filed for asylum individually, and
    as part of his wife's application, are not in dispute.                 Nor does
    Lumataw challenge the agency's exercise of its discretion in
    determining that no exception to the filing deadline was warranted.
    See    Filip,   
    554 F.3d at 687
        (describing     determination      under
    §     1158(a)(2)(D)     as    to   whether      changed       or   extraordinary
    circumstances justify filing delay as "'inherently discretionary'
    and not reviewable").         That analysis, Lumataw properly contends,
    may only be conducted on remand.           See González v. Thomas, 
    547 U.S. 183
     (2006). Rather, at its core, the question underlying Lumataw's
    challenge asks whether the agency misconstrued a statute, 
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
    (a)(2)(B),     and   its   own     regulation,    
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)(2)(ii),     in    assessing    the    timeliness     of   Lumataw's     asylum
    application.     See In re F-P-R-, 24 I & N at 685 (holding that IJ
    "erred as a matter of law when he calculated the 1-year filing
    -15-
    period on the basis of the respondent's prior arrival in the United
    States in 1989 instead of the respondent's last arrival on July 20,
    2005"   (emphasis    added)).     Thus,    we    hold      that   Lumataw      has
    "identif[ied] a colorable, non-frivolous 'legal . . . defect in the
    [IJ and BIA's timeliness] decision[s]'" that is within this court's
    jurisdiction to review.         See Usman, 
    566 F.3d at 267
     (quoting
    Rashad, 
    554 F.3d at 5
    ).
    Upon   undertaking    such   review,       we   hold   that   the    IJ
    committed legal error when he faulted Lumataw for untimely filing
    "10 years after he entered" in 1995 without recognizing either the
    absence of a filing deadline for the first few years of that
    period, or the undisputed record fact of Lumataw's inclusion in his
    wife's January 2003 asylum application.         Cf.    Arif, 
    509 F.3d at 680
    (suggesting   that    petitioner's      later-filed        individual    asylum
    application would be timely if she had timely filed jointly with
    her husband, but holding that it lacked jurisdiction to review
    agency conclusion that petitioner failed to show by "clear and
    convincing evidence" that prior joint application was filed within
    one year of entry); 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)(4)(i)(C) (citing "[i]n the
    case of an alien who had previously been included as a dependent in
    another alien's pending asylum application," "the loss of [that]
    . . . relationship" as example of type of "changed circumstance[]"
    that would warrant exception to one-year filing rule).
    -16-
    We further hold that the BIA committed legal error in
    affirming the IJ's determination of untimeliness on grounds that
    Lumataw "fail[ed] to file his application for asylum within 1 year
    of his arrival in the United States in 1995," where Lumataw's
    application need only have been filed by April 1, 1998 in order to
    be timely.   See 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)(2)(ii) (explaining that the
    "1-year period shall be calculated from the date of the alien's
    last arrival in the United States or April 1, 1997, whichever is
    later" (emphasis added)).5
    b.    Harmless error
    Despite legal error, we would be required to affirm the
    agency's rejection of Lumataw's asylum claim as untimely if the
    evidence nevertheless "compel[led] a conclusion" that Lumataw's
    asylum application was untimely and no exceptions to the filing
    deadline applied.     Un v. Gonzales, 
    415 F.3d 205
    , 209 (1st Cir.
    2005) (emphasis added) (holding that IJ's failure to address past
    5
    The government cites Odmar as analogous to the instant case.
    See Odmar v. Mukasey, 
    294 F. App'x 611
    , 612 (1st Cir. 2008)
    (unpublished) (concerning an alien who claimed that conditions in
    Indonesia had been deteriorating since his 1999 departure but who
    did not apply for asylum until six years later in 2005). The BIA
    found that Odmar was ineligible for asylum because he failed to
    file his application within the statutory one-year deadline and did
    not establish any changed or extraordinary circumstances to excuse
    his late filing.      In denying Odmar's appeal, we held that
    "[d]eterminations of changed circumstances are generally factual
    determinations" and that Odmar had failed to prove otherwise. 
    Id. at 613
    . However, the crucial distinction between Odmar and this
    case is that, in Odmar, there was no legal error found. It was
    because the agency's "determination did not involve the application
    of an erroneous legal standard," that review was precluded. 
    Id.
    -17-
    persecution argument was not harmless error).6                 Because "[w]e
    cannot say the evidence compels a conclusion either way," the error
    cannot   be    regarded    as   harmless.    
    Id.
       (citing   El    Moraghy    v.
    Ashcroft, 
    331 F.3d 195
    , 205 (1st Cir. 2003)).
    Although    the   government   concedes   that      Lumataw    was
    required to file his application within one year of April 1, 1997
    rather than within one-year of his arrival in the United States,
    see 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)(2)(B)(ii), it is nevertheless undisputed
    that Lumataw failed to filed his application by April 1, 1998 --
    the proper asylum filing deadline applicable to him.                Therefore,
    the government argues, the IJ and BIA properly found that Lumataw's
    application was untimely and that no exceptions applied. Moreover,
    the government argues, the BIA concluded that even considering
    Lumataw's wife's 2003 filing, Lumataw nonetheless failed to timely
    file for asylum.      Thus, the government suggests that any error in
    the agency's articulation of the proper filing deadline and initial
    filing date was harmless.
    6
    We note that the kinds of errors previously found "harmless" in
    the immigration context are more clearly non-prejudicial than the
    error in this case. See, e.g., Mekhoukh v. Ashcroft, 
    358 F.3d 118
    ,
    130 (1st Cir. 2004) (holding that omission of evidence that
    "contains no information that materially affects the outcome of
    [the petitioner's] claims" constitutes harmless error (emphasis
    added)); Enwonwu v. Gonzales, 
    232 F. App'x 11
    , 14 (1st Cir. 2007)
    (stating error was harmless because it was "not substantive" when
    the BIA mistakenly said, "'[t]he respondent's appeal is
    dismissed,'" when the BIA meant to say the petitioner's appeal was
    sustained); Rotinsulu, 515 F.3d at 73 (noting that "material
    deficiency in the BIA's decision . . . would have been harmless"
    because claim was nevertheless definitively precluded).
    -18-
    At   first    blush,   the     government's   argument   carries
    substantial force.        After all, taking April 1, 1998 as the proper
    date upon which Lumataw's one-year filing window expired, and
    January 2003, the date of his wife's filing, as the date of
    Lumataw's initial filing, Lumataw's application was nevertheless
    almost five years late.       Lumataw argues, however, that by charging
    him with failing to file within one year of his 1995 entry, when no
    such   requirement    existed,      and    omitting   consideration   of   his
    inclusion in his wife's 2003 application, the agency attributed to
    Lumataw an additional five years of delay for which he was not
    legally responsible.        The agency's legal errors, Lumataw argues,
    which caused it to incorrectly identify the two dates relevant to
    a proper "changed" or "extraordinary" circumstances inquiry, meant
    that the agency never engaged in a meaningful analysis of whether
    the evidentiary record established circumstances that warranted an
    exception to the filing deadline.
    Lumataw argues that, on remand, with the alleged legal
    errors corrected, the record evidence supports a finding that
    changed circumstances in Indonesia justify his delay in filing.
    See 
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
     (a)(2)(D).            Specifically, although the asylum
    filing deadline applicable to him was April 1998, Lumataw argues
    that   the   evidentiary     record   contains     extensive   documentation
    showing that it was from the late 1990s into the early 2000s that
    conditions for Christians in Indonesia progressively deteriorated,
    -19-
    a trend sparked by the overthrow of a long-time dictator who had
    previously suppressed religious tensions.                   In support of his
    position, Lumataw points to 2002 State Department Human Rights
    Reports on the record, which show an increase in interreligious
    violence   and    tension       in   Indonesia   in   the   period    immediately
    preceding his filing for asylum along with his wife. Specifically,
    the State Department's Religious Freedom Report for 2001-2002
    acknowledged the substantial spike in violence in Indonesia during
    this period.7      By including himself in his wife's January 2003
    application, Lumataw argues, he can show that he filed his asylum
    application      within     a    "reasonable     time"      after    the   changed
    circumstances in Indonesia occurred.              See 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)
    (4)(ii) (explaining that "changed circumstances" exception to one-
    year asylum filing deadline applies if applicant files "within a
    reasonable period" given the "changed circumstances"); Husyev v.
    7
    Religious intolerance increasingly was evident
    during the period covered by this report, and
    became a matter of growing concern to many
    Indonesians. Apart from the violence in the
    Moluccas and Central Sulawesi, religious
    intolerance occasionally manifested itself
    elsewhere in the country in the form of
    attacks on churches. During the second half
    of 2001, at least 30 churches were either
    forcibly closed or destroyed in Sulawesi, West
    Java, Jakarta, Yogyakart, Semarang, Aceh and
    Buru Island.   There were no reports of any
    mosques being destroyed during this period
    covered by this report.
    U.S. State Dept. International Religious Freedom Report, Indonesia,
    2002.
    -20-
    Mukasey, 
    528 F.3d 1172
    , 1181 (9th Cir. 2008) (identifying the
    threshold question for the one-year exception analysis as whether
    the application was filed in a "reasonable period" after the
    changed circumstances occurred).           Thus, the asylum claim would not
    be time-barred.
    Ultimately,      we    are    persuaded      by   Lumataw's    argument.
    Although admittedly a close question, we cannot confidently say
    that this was a "harmless error, which did not affect the outcome
    of the IJ's decision . . . ."            Butt v. Keisler, 
    506 F.3d 86
    , 90
    (1st Cir. 2007).      Lumataw indisputably did not file his asylum
    application by April 1, 1998, and thus, his application was in any
    event untimely.      Yet, we conclude that by applying the proper
    timeliness analysis, the agency is more likely to have found
    circumstances that could excuse the untimely filing.
    First,     in   terms    of     the   IJ's    failure   to     recognize
    Lumataw's inclusion in his wife's application, we recognize that it
    was just before the filing of that joint application in January
    2003 that the State Department human rights reports, part of the
    record before the agency, document an upsurge in interreligious
    tensions and violence in Indonesia. See 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)(4)(i)
    (including changes in conditions in the applicant's country within
    the   meaning   of   "changed      circumstances").            This     change   in
    circumstances   could     be    found    to    have   "materially     affect[ed]"
    Lumataw's eligibility for asylum, so as to excuse his late filing.
    -21-
    See 
    id.
     (referring to "circumstances materially affecting the
    applicant's eligibility for asylum"); Kojo v. Holder, No. 04-73163,
    
    2009 WL 1396836
    , at *1 (9th Cir. 2009) (noting that "worsening
    violence towards Christians [in Indonesia] and the increasingly
    ineffective response from the government . . ." may constitute
    changed conditions justifying [petitioner's] untimely application"
    for asylum, filed in 2002 rather than 1998, and remanding to IJ for
    appropriate determination).       Moreover, while what constitutes a
    "reasonable time" is nowhere defined with exactitude, at least two
    members of the BIA have suggested that, barring extraordinary
    circumstances, "'a reasonable period' for bringing an asylum claim
    based on 'changed circumstances' is . . . 1 year from the point at
    which the circumstances changed."            In re G-C-L-, 
    23 I. & N. Dec. 359
    , 364 (B.I.A. 2002) (Pauley, Board Member, dissenting).             This
    proposition of one year as a bench mark for what constitutes a
    "reasonable time" supports the notion that had Lumataw's 2003
    derivative application filing date been taken into account, in
    light of the 2002 events in Indonesia, the agency could have found
    that   Lumataw   filed   within   a    reasonable    time   after   "changed
    circumstances" in Indonesia arose.
    Moreover, even if the BIA is regarded as having partially
    "corrected" the IJ's error with respect to the non-consideration of
    -22-
    the 2003 derivative filing,8 it nevertheless perpetuated the IJ's
    error regarding the filing deadline applicable to Lumataw, when it
    cited his failure to apply within one year of his 1995 arrival.9
    Thus, the BIA's determination that no exceptions justified the
    untimely filing was erroneously premised on an at least an eight-
    year delay.   But as explained above, Lumataw cannot be charged, as
    a matter of law, for the period of delay prior to the enactment of
    the one-year filing deadline.
    Ultimately,   the     question   of   whether   changed   or
    extraordinary circumstances exist to excuse an alien's failure to
    meet the deadline for filing an asylum application is a highly
    fact-specific inquiry requiring an individualized analysis of the
    facts of the particular case.    Matter of Y-C-, 
    23 I. & N. Dec. 286
    ,
    287-88 (B.I.A. 2002).10 And, inevitably, justifying an eight or ten
    8
    The BIA stated that "[w]hile the respondent asserts that the
    [IJ] did not acknowledge that his wife filed an application in
    2003, which included the respondent, the respondent failed to
    demonstrate that the [IJ's] omission of this fact supports a
    finding that his failure to file his application for asylum within
    1 year of his arrival in the United States in 1995 should be
    excused . . . ." (emphasis added). This suggests that unlike the
    IJ, the BIA took the 2003 filing into account.        However, it
    nevertheless misstated the applicable filing deadline.
    9
    To the extent that the BIA adopted the findings and reasoning of
    the IJ, we review the decision of the IJ. Sukwanputra v. Gonzales,
    
    434 F.3d 627
    , 631 (3d Cir. 2006). Insofar as the BIA set forth its
    own opinion, however, we review its reasoning. 
    Id.
    10
    See also I.N.S. Asylum Officer Training Manual: One Year Filing
    Deadline         (Nov.        2001),        available          at
    http://www.asylumlaw.org/docs/united_states/asylum_officer_traini
    ng_oneyear_112001.pdf (hereinafter "AO Training Manual").      The
    -23-
    year delay to the satisfaction of the agency is a more formidable
    task than justifying a substantially shorter, five-year period of
    delay.11    We cannot confidently say that the improper attribution
    of several additional years of delay to Lumataw was not the "final
    straw"     precluding   the   BIA    from       exercising      its    discretion   in
    Lumataw's    favor.     Moreover,        the    absence    of     an   asylum   filing
    deadline at the time of Lumataw's initial entry and for several
    years thereafter, if recognized, could have itself been considered
    "extraordinary circumstances" justifying a late filing.                         See 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.4
    (a)(5) (defining "extraordinary circumstances" as
    "factors    directly    related     to    the    failure     to    meet   the   1-year
    deadline"); AO Training Manual, at 15-16 (instructing AO's, in
    conducting "extraordinary circumstances" analysis, to consider
    "any . . . factor or group of factors" which, "depending on the
    facts of the case" "produced a significant barrier to timely
    Manual suggests that whether an exception justifies an untimely
    filing is a fact-specific determination and instructs asylum
    officers to ask whether "a reasonable person under the same or
    similar circumstances as the applicant would have filed sooner."
    
    Id. at 19
    . The Manual also instructs that asylum officers "must be
    flexible and inclusive" in examining changed or extraordinary
    circumstances."   
    Id. at 18
    .    Although not binding, the Manual
    constitutes persuasive authority.
    11
    Nor is successfully justifying a five-year filing delay
    unprecedented.   See Matter of Mirmehdi, A75-622-144, 29 Immig.
    Rptr. B1-132 (B.I.A. Aug. 20, 2004) (upholding determination that
    changed circumstances justified filing asylum application five
    years after arrival); In re Bassel Marshi, No. A26-980-386, at 1-3
    (Op. Atty. Gen. Feb. 13, 2004) (reversing BIA and holding that
    "changed circumstances" justified alien's thirteen year delay in
    filing asylum application).
    -24-
    filing"). Finally, also bearing in mind the canon which, given the
    drastic    consequences           of   deportation,       favors    construction   of
    immigration laws in the light most favorable to the alien12 we find
    that we are unable confidently to conclude that had the agency
    conducted the proper timeliness analysis, it would not have found
    that an exception justifying Lumataw's untimely filing applied.
    And had the untimely filing been excused, Lumataw would not have
    been precluded from demonstrating his eligibility for asylum.13
    Thus, we cannot say that the agency's errors did not prejudice
    Lumataw.        We leave it to the agency to determine upon remand
    whether    or    not   the    application      of   the    proper    analysis   would
    nevertheless yield the same result.
    In reaching this holding, we emphasize that we reach no
    conclusion as to whether, under the proper analysis, Lumataw's
    undisputed      failure      to    timely    file   his    application    should   be
    excused.    Rather, because determinations regarding whether changed
    or extraordinary circumstances justify a late-filed application are
    "generally factual determinations," Odmar, 294 F. App'x at 613, we
    12
    See Cardoza-Fonseca, 
    480 U.S. 421
    , 449 (1987); Pacheco v.
    I.N.S., 
    546 F.2d 448
    , 449 (1st Cir. 1976) (citing Barber v.
    Gonzales, 
    347 U.S. 637
     (1954)); Fong Haw Tan v. Phelan, 
    333 U.S. 6
    ,
    10 (1948).
    13
    Although, in the course of its withholding of removal inquiry,
    the agency found that Lumataw had not shown past persecution,
    because it also determined his asylum application to be untimely,
    it never evaluated whether Lumataw could qualify for asylum based
    on a well-founded fear of future persecution.      See discussion
    infra.
    -25-
    lack authority to make the discretionary determination in the first
    instance of whether Lumataw in fact warrants an exception to the
    one-year filing deadline.      What we recognize, however, is that the
    agency committed legal error in conducting its timeliness analysis,
    and a possibility exists that Lumataw might have satisfied 
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
        (a)(2)(D)    but   for    the   IJ   and    BIA's   unambiguous
    mischaracterization of his filing obligations.           See Kojo, 
    2009 WL 1396836
    , at *1 (granting petition to review and remanding because
    "the IJ failed to analyze in the first instance whether changes in
    Indonesia    between    1998   and   2002   justify    the   untimely   filed
    application" for asylum).        Because we cannot conclude that the
    legal errors raised by this appeal were harmless, we grant the
    petition for review and remand.
    2.   Past Persecution
    Lumataw argues that the agency erred in holding that he
    failed to make out a claim of "past persecution." Past persecution
    can serve as the basis for either a withholding of removal or an
    asylum application.      See 
    8 C.F.R. §§ 1208.13
    (b), 1208.16(b).         The
    IJ and BIA found that the sole incident cited by Lumataw, even if
    motivated by religious animus, did not rise to the level of past
    persecution.     See Matter of Acosta, 
    19 I. & N. Dec. 211
    , 216
    (B.I.A. 1985) (defining "persecution" as a "threat to the life or
    freedom of, or the infliction of suffering or harm upon, those who
    differ in a way regarded as offensive").         Lumataw argues that this
    -26-
    conclusion is contrary to the law in this circuit, which holds that
    "credible threats can, depending on the circumstances, amount to
    persecution, especially when the assailant threatens the petitioner
    with death, in person, and with a weapon."          Sok v. Mukasey, 
    526 F.3d 48
    , 54 (1st Cir. 2008).
    Lumataw argues that he credibly testified that he was
    threatened with death by a person with a knife on account of his
    Christian religion.     The agency so found.   But while Sok holds that
    credible threats could constitute past persecution, whether that is
    actually   shown   in    any    particular   case   "depend[s]   on   the
    circumstances."    
    Id.
             For example, we have held that "hollow
    threats . . . without more, certainly do not compel a finding of
    past persecution."       Ang v. Gonzales, 
    430 F.3d 50
    , 56 (1st Cir.
    2005).   As the government accurately notes, the "circumstances" of
    Sok are distinguishable from those in the instant case in that
    Lumataw received only a single threat unaccompanied by physical
    harm, whereas Sok involved "six separate instances in which [she]
    was either threatened with death or serious injury . . . was beaten
    and detained, or was with her husband when he was threatened or
    beaten."   Id.; see also Sompotan v. Mukasey, 
    533 F.3d 63
    , 71 (1st
    Cir. 2008) (noting that "'the presence or absence of physical harm,
    (and, indeed, the degree of harm inflicted) remains a relevant
    factor in determining whether mistreatment rises to the level of
    -27-
    persecution'" (quoting Ruiz v. Mukasey, 
    526 F.3d 31
    , 37 (1st Cir.
    2008)).
    Ultimately,    our    authority       to   disturb      the   agency's
    determination   is   constrained    by     our    deferential       "substantial
    evidence" standard of review "which demands that we uphold the
    agency's determination unless the evidence points unerringly in the
    opposite direction." Rashad, 
    554 F.3d at 6
     (quoting Khan, 549 F.3d
    at 576).   We cannot say on these facts that the "record compels a
    contrary   conclusion."      Elías-Zacarías,          
    502 U.S. at
      481   n.1
    (applying this standard and stating "[t]o reverse the BIA finding
    we must find that the evidence not only supports the conclusion,
    but compels it"); see also Arif, 
    509 F.3d at 680
     (explaining that
    "persecution is an extreme concept that does not include every sort
    of treatment our society regards as offensive" (internal quotation
    marks omitted)).     We therefore, "find no basis for disturbing [the
    IJ and BIA's] conclusion that the petitioner failed to show past
    persecution."    Nikijuluw v. Gonzales, 
    427 F.3d 115
    , 121 (1st Cir.
    2005).
    3.   Well-Founded Fear
    Finally, Lumataw argues that even absent a favorable
    finding on the past persecution question, on remand, Lumataw should
    be entitled to present an asylum claim based on "well-founded fear
    of future persecution."         We agree.        The IJ and BIA found that
    Lumataw did not meet the standard for withholding of removal on the
    -28-
    basis   of   fear   of   future   persecution,   as   the   record   did   not
    establish that Lumataw would "more likely than not" be persecuted
    on the basis of his religion if he returned to Indonesia.             We hold
    this decision to be supported by substantial evidence.               However,
    because Lumataw's asylum claim was dismissed as untimely, Lumataw's
    fear of future persecution claim was assessed only under the higher
    standard of proof applicable to withholding of removal claims,
    rather than the asylum standard.        Pan, 
    489 F.3d at 86
     (explaining
    that "'more likely than not' standard is harder for an alien to
    satisfy than the 'reasonable possibility' standard for showing a
    well-founded fear of future persecution in asylum cases"); see also
    Cardoza-Fonseca, 
    480 U.S. at 431
     (finding in asylum context that
    ten percent chance of being persecuted provides basis for "well-
    founded" fear).      Lumataw argues that substantial evidence on the
    record, including various country conditions reports documenting a
    growing trend of intolerance against Christians in Indonesia, would
    support at least a ten percent possibility of future persecution if
    he were removed.     We lack authority to evaluate this claim in the
    first instances.         But if, on remand, the IJ finds that Lumataw
    warrants an exception to the one-year filing deadline, his asylum
    claim on the basis of well-founded fear of future persecution in
    Indonesia must be revisited as well.
    -29-
    III. Conclusion
    For the foregoing reasons, we grant this petition for
    judicial review and remand.
    -30-