United States v. Wetmore , 700 F.3d 570 ( 2012 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 11-1626
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Petitioner, Appellee,
    v.
    JOEL WETMORE,
    Respondent, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
    [Hon. Patti B. Saris, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Lynch, Chief Judge,
    Boudin and Lipez, Circuit Judges.
    Robert B. Mann, by appointment of the court, with whom Mann
    and Mitchell was on brief for appellant.
    Eve A. Piemonte Stacey, Assistant United States Attorney, with
    whom Carmen M. Ortiz, United States Attorney, was on brief for
    appellee.
    November 26, 2012
    BOUDIN, Circuit Judge.    The Adam Walsh Child Protection
    and Safety Act of 2006 ("Adam Walsh Act"), Pub. L. No. 109-248,
    tit. III, § 302(4), 
    120 Stat. 587
    , 620-22 (codified at 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 4247-4248
     (2006)), allows the federal government to seek civil
    commitment of "sexually dangerous persons" already in the custody
    of the Bureau of Prisons ("BOP").     Once ordered so committed by a
    federal court, the person is confined to a treatment facility until
    its director or a court finds that the person is no longer sexually
    dangerous to others, or will not be dangerous if released under a
    prescribed treatment regimen.   
    Id.
     §§ 4247(h), 4248(e).
    Joel Wetmore, nearing the end of a federal criminal
    sentence, was the subject of such a civil commitment order and he
    now appeals.    Wetmore, 56 years old, was born and raised in
    Houlton, Maine; he graduated from high school there in 1975 and
    over the next 25 years held a variety of jobs, mostly in Maine but
    also including a two-year stint in Texas. He eventually settled in
    Bangor, Maine, where he resided until October, 1999.       Over the
    course of his life, Wetmore has served several prison terms for
    sex-related crimes:
    -- a first conviction in 1981 at age 24, under
    Maine law, for unlawful sexual actions with a
    minor, specifically, fondling the genitals of
    a 12 year old boy, resulting in a 30 day
    suspended sentence and six months probation;
    -- a second conviction in 1987 at age 31,
    under Maine law, for gross sexual misconduct,
    specifically, for repeatedly molesting over a
    two-year period an 11-year-old boy, resulting
    -2-
    in an 18 year sentence of which nine years
    were served, with an additional four years
    subsequently imposed after his probation was
    revoked because of the offense that led to his
    third conviction; and
    -- a third conviction in 2000 at age 44, under
    federal law, for possessing over 2,000 images
    of child pornography, leading to an 87 month
    sentence.
    Wetmore had a BOP projected release date from his federal
    sentence on November 18, 2006, but, on November 17, the federal
    government   filed   a   notice   commencing   the   effort   to   have him
    certified by a court as a sexually dangerous person and to commit
    him civilly under the Adam Walsh Act.           Under the terms of the
    statute, the court may commit an individual "who is in the custody
    of the Bureau of Prisons" if the government can prove by clear and
    convincing evidence that he is a "sexually dangerous person," 
    18 U.S.C. § 4248
    (a) & (d), defined as someone
    who has engaged or attempted to engage in
    sexually violent conduct or child molestation
    and who...suffers from a serious mental
    illness, abnormality, or disorder as a result
    of which he would have serious difficulty in
    refraining from sexually violent conduct or
    child molestation if released.
    
    18 U.S.C. § 4247
    (a)(5) & (6).
    The district court held a seven-day bench trial beginning
    in late 2010 and ending in 2011.1     The court heard expert testimony
    1
    The lengthy delay between the government's certification and
    the trial is neither explained nor complained of by either side.
    But the primary reason is likely the constitutional challenges to
    the Adam Walsh Act that led to numerous stays of proceedings until
    -3-
    from its appointed psychological examiner, Dr. Robert Prentky, as
    well as from the government's retained expert psychologist, Dr. Amy
    Phenix.       Other witnesses included government officials, prison
    inmates, Wetmore's mother and brother, and Wetmore himself.                         The
    testimony covered Wetmore's life history, including his sexual
    experiences and activities.              The details are elaborated in the
    district court's thorough, 20-page decision.                     United States v.
    Wetmore, 
    766 F. Supp. 2d 319
     (D. Mass. 2011).
    In the decision, the district court ruled that the
    government had met its burden of proof, determined that Wetmore met
    the conditions for certification as a sexually dangerous person,
    and ordered him civilly committed.                Wetmore now seeks review in
    this court,      first   raising     a   threshold issue,         whether     he    was
    legitimately in BOP custody when the notice was filed; he then
    argues that in any event the district court erred in finding that
    he   suffered    from    the   requisite       mental    disorder    and    that     he
    satisfied the statutory dangerousness test.
    The threshold issue presents a legal question.                The Adam
    Walsh   Act    permits   the   government         to   civilly    commit    sexually
    dangerous     persons    who   are   "in    the    custody   of    the     Bureau    of
    Prisons."      
    18 U.S.C. § 4248
    (a).        At the time the government began
    the civil commitment proceeding on November 17, 2006, Wetmore was
    its constitutionality was ultimately affirmed in United States v.
    Comstock, 
    130 S. Ct. 1949
     (2010).
    -4-
    held in custody under the authority of BOP based on his federal
    child pornography conviction with a projected release date of
    November 18, 2006. There is no indication that Wetmore had earlier
    disputed the November 18 date while in prison.
    In 2010, shortly before his commitment hearing, Wetmore
    argued that the proceedings should be dismissed; he claimed that on
    November 17, 2006, when the government initiated the commitment
    process, he had not been in the "lawful" custody of BOP because his
    projected    release   date--if   now     re-computed--should      have    been
    earlier than November 18. Expressing some doubt as to whether this
    mattered, the district court considered the premise and concluded
    that Wetmore had been in the lawful custody of BOP when the
    government sought his commitment.
    The statute itself says nothing about "lawful" custody,
    but mere physical control could hardly suffice in all instances:
    imagine   that   Wetmore   had    been    acquitted   at   trial   of     child
    pornography charges but mistakenly listed as convicted, held in
    prison by BOP based on this mistake and then sought to be certified
    during this period.     So, at the very least, some colorable legal
    authority must exist for the detention and the courts normally so
    assume.     E.g., United States v. Joshua, 
    607 F.3d 379
    , 388-89 (4th
    Cir. 2010) (fact of BOP physical custody alone not sufficient);
    United States v. Hernandez-Arenado, 
    571 F.3d 662
    , 666-67 (7th Cir.
    2009) (same).
    -5-
    But it is a different question how far Wetmore can
    belatedly challenge alleged sentencing or computational errors at
    the commitment stage and which errors might matter.          The answer is
    not supplied merely by the word "custody"--a chameleon term,
    Ramsey v. Brennan, 
    878 F.2d 995
    , 996 (7th Cir. 1989)--as applied to
    a variety of situations likely never considered by Congress.             We
    already have held that, in an Adam Walsh proceeding, "to mandate
    release of a potentially dangerous individual due to a de minimis
    mistake in the timing of initiating the commitment process would be
    manifestly inconsistent with the overall structure of the Act."
    United States v. Shields, 
    649 F.3d 78
    , 87 (1st Cir. 2011), cert.
    denied, 
    132 S. Ct. 1586
     (2012).
    De minimis mistakes merely illustrate a larger tension.
    The mechanics of determining a release date are more complicated
    than might be supposed.        The federal judge ordinarily imposes a
    term of months (e.g., 60 months) and, if another sentence is
    already being served by the defendant, chooses whether and to what
    extent   the   new   federal    sentence    will    run   concurrently   or
    consecutively to the existing sentence.            
    18 U.S.C. §§ 3553
     (2006
    & Supp. IV 2011), 3584 (2010).      The defendant may then seek direct
    appellate review of this sentence.         
    Id.
     § 3742; see also Gall v.
    United States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    , 47 (2007).       But often there remain, as
    here, complicated adjustments that determine the prisoner's precise
    release date, depending on events that already occurred (e.g., time
    -6-
    spent in custody awaiting trial) or will occur later (e.g., good
    conduct time).2
    These calculations are ordinarily made administratively
    by the Attorney General through the Bureau of Prisons, Kayfez v.
    Gasele, 
    993 F.2d 1288
    , 1289 (7th Cir. 1993), resulting in a posted
    projected release date, sometimes falling much earlier than the
    stated sentence of months might suggest.              But these sometimes
    abstruse calculations, illustrated by Wetmore's own case, may
    involve    debatable   legal   and    factual     issues.      The    convicted
    defendant can contest the projected date through an administrative
    proceeding, 
    28 C.F.R. § 542.10
    -.19 (2012), and, if dissatisfied,
    can ultimately obtain judicial review, 
    28 U.S.C. § 2241
    ; see also
    Reno v. Koray, 
    515 U.S. 50
    , 53 (1995); Romandine v. United States,
    
    206 F.3d 731
    , 736 (7th Cir. 2000).
    Given the Adam Walsh Act's incontestible aim to detain
    individuals still sexually dangerous upon release,              Comstock, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1960-61
    ,   the       government    argues      that    post-hoc
    computational attacks on the lawfulness of his detention should be
    limited to habeas proceedings or tempered by other exhaustion
    requirements.      Accommodation       of   new     statutes     to    existing
    administrative schemes is the ordinary work of courts where not
    2
    See 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 3585
    (b), 3624(b); 
    28 C.F.R. § 523.1
    -.20
    (2012); Fed. Bureau of Prisons, U.S. Dep't of Justice, P.5884.03,
    Good Conduct Time Under the Prison Litigation Reform Act (2006);
    Fed. Bureau of Prisons, U.S. Dep't of Justice, P.5880.28, Sentence
    Computation Manual (1999).
    -7-
    squarely addressed by Congress, but this is the wrong case for
    broad rules.     As the district court ruled, Wetmore was still
    serving his proper federal sentence when the commitment proceeding
    began.
    Wetmore's contrary arguments stem from a complicated
    chronology:
    -- On October 22, 1999, he was arrested by
    Hampden, Maine, police after a 15-year-old
    male reported that Wetmore had performed a
    sexual act on him; a second juvenile male
    reported that Wetmore had child pornography on
    his computer.
    -- On February 14, 2000, his state court
    parole was revoked and the court imposed the
    additional four year state sentence already
    mentioned.
    -- On April 11, 2000, he was indicted on the
    federal child pornography charges, and entered
    his guilty plea on July 10, 2000.
    -- On October 25, 2000 he received his 87
    month   federal   sentence,   to   be   served
    concurrently with the four-year state sentence
    he was then serving.
    Wetmore's projected release date on his federal sentence was
    November 18, 2006.   On November 17, 2006, the government filed its
    certification request.
    Wetmore's first attempt to show unlawful detention is
    easily rebuffed. Under federal law, a defendant may receive credit
    against his federal sentence for "any time he has spent in official
    detention   prior   to   the   date    the   sentence   commences."   The
    provision, 
    18 U.S.C. § 3585
    (b), reads:
    -8-
    A defendant shall be given credit toward the
    service of a term of imprisonment for any time
    he has spent in official detention prior to
    the date the sentence commences--
    (1) as a result of the offense for which the
    sentence was imposed; or
    (2) as a result of any other charge for which
    the   defendant   was  arrested   after   the
    commission of the offense for which the
    sentence was imposed;
    that has not been credited against another
    sentence.
    The Bureau of Prisons gave Wetmore 115 days of credit
    toward his federal sentence for his time in custody between his
    state arrest and the revocation of his state probation; this
    credit, Wetmore says, was calculated as though his state probation
    was revoked on February 13, 2000, when in reality it was revoked on
    February 14, 2000.   There is some support for this claim and, on
    this premise, Wetmore was owed 116 days credit, making his proper
    release date one day earlier--namely, on November 17, 2006--the day
    the federal certification was filed sometime late in the afternoon.
    Wetmore did not raise this argument in the district
    court, so it is reviewable only for plain error, Smith v. Kmart
    Corp., 
    177 F.3d 19
    , 26 (1st Cir. 1999), and a one-day error would
    work no miscarriage of justice, cf. United States v. Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    , 736 (1993). Moreover, a preserved error would have shown
    at most the discrepancy of a day or less--an interval even shorter
    -9-
    than the one we found in Shields to be no cognizable infringement
    of the statute's custody requirement.            
    649 F.3d at 86-89
    .
    Anyway, even accepting Wetmore's premise that he was due
    for release on November 17, 2006, the last day of a sentence is
    part of that sentence, 
    18 U.S.C. § 3624
    (a); Wetmore was still
    serving his sentence in BOP custody on November 17 when the
    government filed its request; and so the request was timely on its
    face and Wetmore's claim appears to fail without any help from
    Shields or the limits imposed by the plain error doctrine.                 If it
    was unlawful for BOP to detain Wetmore until 11:59 pm on November
    17, Wetmore has yet to explain why.
    Wetmore's second theory of why his custody as of November
    17,   2006,    was    unlawful   is    more   complicated      and   involves   a
    substantially longer period--one reason why initiating commitment
    proceedings a few days earlier or the Shields rule itself might not
    always   solve       the   problem    of   belated   attacks   on    a   sentence
    calculation.      Wetmore says that he was owed credit on his federal
    sentence for all or part of the time he spent in custody between
    February 14, 2000 (when his state probation was revoked and he
    began serving his new state sentence) and October 25, 2000 (when
    his federal sentence was imposed).
    The district judge who sentenced Wetmore for his child-
    pornography offense said that the federal sentence was to run
    concurrently with his state sentence; so, Wetmore says, his federal
    -10-
    sentence should therefore run from the earlier date that his state
    sentence began.          But concurrency, in this context, typically means
    that the federal sentence runs alongside the state sentence from
    the date that the federal sentence commences. See U.S.S.G. § 5G1.3
    cmt.    nn.2,      4    (using   the   1998     manual      employed     in   Wetmore's
    sentencing).            Accordingly,      the   BOP    treated   Wetmore's       federal
    sentence as commencing on the date it was imposed, October 25,
    2000.    Thereafter, Wetmore's federal sentence ran simultaneously
    with his state sentence, and there is no evidence of any intent on
    the    part   of       the   sentencing    judge      to   back-date    the   start   of
    Wetmore's federal sentence in such a way that he would also receive
    credit for the time he had already served on his state sentence.
    Cf. United States v. Labeille-Soto, 
    163 F.3d 93
    , 98 (2d Cir. 1998)
    (asserting that sentencing judges lack authority to back-date the
    start of the sentences they impose).
    Under      subsection       3585(b)(2)       (quoted     above),    credit
    against Wetmore's federal sentence could be given for his time in
    detention prior to the commencement of the sentence "as a result of
    any other charge for which [he] was arrested after the commission
    of the offense for which the [federal] sentence was imposed," the
    probation-violation sentence falling into this category.                         But that
    credit is only available if the detention time "has not been
    -11-
    credited against another sentence."3             Here, Wetmore's time in
    detention between the beginning of his state sentence and the start
    of his federal sentence was credited against his state sentence. As
    explained earlier, Wetmore also received credit against his federal
    sentence for the time he spent in detention between his arrest and
    the imposition of his state sentence.
    The principle against giving double credit also disposes
    of Wetmore's separate claim that he should have been given credit
    against his federal sentence for the time he spent in the custody
    of U.S. Marshals between February 14, 2000, and October 25, 2000,
    to   attend    federal    court   proceedings    while      serving   his   state
    sentence.      During these periods, Wetmore was on loan by the state
    but still serving his state sentence; and this time was credited to
    his state sentence and cannot also be used to reduce further his
    federal sentence.
    Finally, Wetmore invokes an application note in the
    Sentencing Guidelines which does--contrary to usual concurrency
    practice--allow     the    district    judge    to   give    a   defendant    the
    functional equivalent of credit for a separate state sentence
    3
    Section 3585(b)(2) makes "clear that a defendant [can]not
    receive a double credit for his detention time." United States v.
    Wilson, 
    503 U.S. 329
    , 337 (1992).        Wetmore says that Wilson
    involved   a   different   context,   but   the   Supreme   Court's
    interpretation reflects statutory language, and case law both in
    this circuit and others supports this reading. United States v.
    Mills, 
    501 F.3d 9
    , 11 (1st Cir. 2007); United States v. Dennis, 
    926 F.2d 768
    , 770 (8th Cir. 1991) (per curiam).
    -12-
    already served   before    a federal       sentence   begins.    The   note,
    U.S.S.G. § 5G1.3 cmt. n.2, so allows in cases where the conduct
    underlying the state sentence is the same as that for which the
    federal sentence is imposed, or if the underlying conduct has been
    used to adjust upward the federal sentence--for example, under the
    relevant conduct guideline.        Lopez v. Terrell, 
    654 F.3d 176
    , 178
    (2d Cir. 2011), cert. denied 
    132 S. Ct. 2115
     (2012).
    While section 5G1.3(b) primarily deals with establishing
    concurrent   sentences    (which    is     what   Wetmore   received),   the
    application note in question also provides that when a judge
    imposes a sentence pursuant to § 5G1.3(b), she "should adjust the
    sentence for any period of imprisonment already served as a result
    of the conduct taken into account in determining the guideline
    range for the instant offense if the court determines that period
    of imprisonment will not be credited to the federal sentence by the
    Bureau of Prisons."   U.S.S.G. § 5G1.3 cmt. n.2 (emphasis added).
    Wetmore is not entitled to a re-sentencing at this stage;
    but anyway the district court that sentenced him made no mistake.
    Wetmore's state sentence stemmed from a state probation violation,
    and in such cases the defendant does not receive any adjustment to
    his federal sentence, see id. § 5G1.3(b) cmt. n.6; moreover, the
    revocation of Wetmore's state probation was apparently due to his
    prohibited contact with a minor, not because of his possession of
    -13-
    child pornography,4 and there is no indication that the prohibited
    contact played any role in Wetmore's federal sentence.
    This   brings   us   to    the   merits   which   are   far     more
    straightforward, raising primarily factual issues, apart from one
    quasi-legal issue already disposed of in United States v. Carta,
    
    592 F.3d 34
     (1st Cir. 2010).    The Adam Walsh Act, as already noted,
    requires findings that Wetmore (1) previously "engaged or attempted
    to engage in sexually violent conduct or child molestation"; (2)
    currently "suffers from a serious mental illness, abnormality, or
    disorder"; and, finally, (3) that "as a result" of his current
    mental condition he "would have serious difficulty in refraining
    from sexually violent conduct or child molestation if released."
    
    18 U.S.C. § 4247
    (a)(5) & (6).
    The first requirement--here, prior "child molestation"--
    was established by certified court records admitted by stipulation.
    Wetmore concedes   this   and instead      argues   that    the   other    two
    elements--mental state and dangerousness--were not established.
    These must be found by "clear and convincing evidence," 
    18 U.S.C. § 4248
    (d); but the district court's factual evaluation can be
    overturned only for clear error, Carta, 592 F.3d at 39.
    4
    The search of Wetmore's home, which led to the discovery of
    child pornography, was not conducted until the day after he had
    already been arrested for violating the conditions of his
    probation. The statement of David Miranda, Operations Manager at
    the BOP Designation and Sentence Computation Center, bears out that
    Wetmore's probation was revoked for his association with children,
    not for child pornography.
    -14-
    We start with the determination, on which both experts
    agreed, that Wetmore does suffer from "a serious mental illness,
    abnormality, or disorder."           
    18 U.S.C. § 4247
    (a)(5).          They based
    their evaluations     not     merely on      prior     convictions    but   on    an
    evaluation   as   well   of    Wetmore's     admitted     sexual     conduct     and
    attitudes, including many other instances of child molestation,
    over a long period and a degree of sexual preoccupation and
    activity borne out by the record and by Wetmore's own admissions.
    Dr. Prentky also interviewed Wetmore while Dr. Phenix, whom Wetmore
    declined to meet, had access to records of his incarceration,
    police reports, and his deposition.
    That     Wetmore     has    over     a   long    period,     when      not
    incarcerated, been a serial molester of boys below the age of
    consent is borne out by an elaborate record and his own admission
    "to sexually molesting at least eleven boys [aged] between eleven
    and fifteen years old."         Wetmore, 
    766 F. Supp. 2d at 329
    .                 His
    obsession with this aspect of his sexual life continued even while
    he was serving his federal sentence and is amply documented.
    Wetmore's argument on the mental illness element is not based on
    any dispute about his history, conduct or obsession but rather
    about its characterization by the two experts.
    Dr.     Prentky     diagnosed      Wetmore     with   paraphilia       not
    otherwise specified, with hebephilia as a specifier.                 He explained
    that "paraphilia" is an "intense recurrent pattern of erotic
    -15-
    interest that goes beyond normal sexual activity."          The term
    "hebephilia" is commonly used to refer to a sexual interest in
    children "in the age range of eleven to fourteen."   Carta, 592 F.3d
    at 38-39.    Dr. Phenix, the government expert, diagnosed Wetmore
    with pedophilia, sexually attracted to males, nonexclusive type.
    "Nonexclusive type" means that the individual's sexual preference
    includes but is not limited to prepubescent children.        Wetmore
    argues that Dr. Prentky's diagnosis is not a permissible basis for
    a finding of the mental illness element, and that Dr. Phenix's
    diagnosis of pedophilia was flawed by her inability to examine him
    and unsupported by his case history.
    Wetmore's critique of Dr. Prentky is a replay of an issue
    already resolved in Carta that arises because Dr. Prentky deemed
    Wetmore's predominant sexual interest as boys in their early
    teenage years.    Whether or not one describes as a mental illness
    mere sexual attraction to youngsters in the 11-to-14 range--which
    is the strict meaning of the term hebephilia--what is a mental
    illness, recognized in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of
    Mental Disorders ("DSM") of the American Psychiatric Association,
    is a broad category called "paraphilia," whose diagnostic criteria
    are as follows:
    1.   recurrent,  intense   sexually  arousing
    fantasies, sexual urges or behavior;
    2. generally involving nonhuman objects,
    suffering or humiliation of a partner, or
    "children or other nonconsenting persons";
    -16-
    3.    lasting more than six months; and
    4. causing clinically significant distress or
    impairment, etc.
    DSM-IV-TR 566, 568 (4th ed. 2000); see also Carta, 592 F.3d at 40.
    This      well    describes       Wetmore,     once       "distress     or
    impairment" is understood as extending to Wetmore's condition
    manifested in repeated criminal molestations of male minors. Young
    teenagers are "children or other nonconsenting partners," Carta,
    592 F.3d at 40-41; and Dr. Prentky's use of the phrase paraphilia
    not otherwise specified describes a listed mental disorder, see
    DSM-IV-TR 566, 568, with the term "hebephilia" merely identifying
    prepubescent children as the group to whom Wetmore is attracted. In
    short, Dr. Prentky's diagnosis of paraphilia satisfies the required
    mental element even if the issue begins and ends with the DSM.                    Cf.
    Carta 592 F.3d at 39-42.
    Wetmore        directs us to United States v. Neuhauser, 
    2012 WL 174363
    ,    at   *2   (E.D.N.C.   Jan.    20,   2012),     which    says     that
    paraphilia not otherwise specified, with hebephilia as a specifier,
    is not a mental illness listed in the DSM.              But while the DSM does
    not call hebephilia a mental illness when all that is involved is
    attraction, neither does it exclude pubescent children as a target
    of one otherwise satisfying the criteria for paraphilia.                         The
    important point is that the attraction only amounts to a mental
    illness--paraphilia--when        it   is   of   the     form   and    degree     that
    satisfies all of the above listed criteria.
    -17-
    Dr.   Phenix's   testimony   was   similar   in   substance,
    although she declined to limit Wetmore's diagnostic category to
    targeting of young teenagers.       She agreed that Dr. Prentkey's
    diagnosis of "paraphilia NOS, hebephilia" was reasonable, but she
    preferred to describe Wetmore more broadly as falling into the
    related paraphilia subcategory of pedophilia nonexclusive type,
    DSM, supra, at 571-72, viewing his strong sexual interests to
    include both pre-pubescent and pubescent children, as well as
    postpubescent adolescents and even adults.           The two experts'
    diagnoses overlapped rather than conflicted, and the district judge
    accepted both.     Wetmore, 766 F. Supp. 2d. at 332-33.
    This brings us to the third requirement under the Adam
    Walsh Act.    Future dangerousness is often a fraught question
    involving prediction, and the stakes are high.       Wetmore, confined
    since 1999, was hardly in a position to have molested children in
    prison.   But, as Dr. Phenix pointed out, his erotic preoccupation
    continued while incarcerated: in 2007, he sought to obtain a book
    describing a sexual relationship between high-school-aged boys, and
    in 2008, he was found with pornographic images of young boys
    crafted from magazine cutouts.
    Both experts agreed that Wetmore, in the words of the
    statute's third requirement, would have "serious difficulty" in
    refraining from child molestation if released.      Their explanations
    were extensive and even the summary of their findings, tests and
    -18-
    analyses in the district court's decision occupies many pages. But
    the main points, omitting a wealth of detail easily supplied, see
    Wetmore, 
    766 F. Supp. 2d at 333-36
    , include the following:
    -- the 40-year duration of Wetmore's sexual
    preoccupation with young males;
    -- Wetmore's past recognition of the danger
    posed by his conduct, including a promise to
    himself after his 1987 confinement not to re-
    offend, but simultaneous inability to refrain
    from further instances of molestation;
    -- Wetmore's limited exposure to sex offender
    treatment, sometimes frustrated by his own
    rule violations, which has given no indication
    of a lessening of the risk he poses or that he
    would be susceptible to further treatment;
    -- several standardized predictive tests, used
    by both doctors but more extensively by Dr.
    Phenix, which all showed a significant risk
    that Wetmore would reoffend, most of them
    scoring him as a high-risk reoffender;
    -- Wetmore's lack of meaningful, long-lasting
    adult relationships that could protect him
    from reoffending; and
    -- Wetmore's advanced age, which, although it
    may    sometimes    temper     such    sexual
    preoccupations, did not mitigate the risk he
    posed given his persistent, demonstrated
    sexual interest in young boys.
    The district court, giving lessened weight only to the
    standardized predictive tests, which reflect group statistics,
    accepted the explanations and the conclusion.     The trial judge
    found most persuasive "Wetmore's substantial history of victimizing
    young children" and the risk factors that (going forward) the
    experts found were likely to maintain rather than reduce the danger
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    he presented.    See Wetmore, 
    766 F. Supp. 2d at 336-37
    .        The judge
    also pointed out that among all the witnesses called by both sides,
    only Wetmore's own testimony disputed the predictions that he was
    likely to reoffend.    
    Id. at 336
    .
    Wetmore's brief does not take issue with the finding of
    present dangerousness.      His argument, in a nutshell, is that some
    combination of treatment and supervision should suffice to lessen
    the risk he poses and guard against reoffense.        The argument rests
    on evidence that there are forms of treatment that could reduce the
    threat; that conditions requiring treatment would normally be
    imposed if Wetmore were confined to supervised release; that
    Wetmore has expressed interest in treatment; and that family
    members would try to help supervise him.
    The statute, however, turns on present dangerousness.
    Wetmore was incarcerated for more than a decade; was expelled from
    a voluntary sex offender program in prison after just two weeks
    when he violated the rules by engaging in sexual activity with two
    other inmates; and has a long history of disregarding obligations
    and commitments.    The district court emphasized Wetmore's lack of
    cooperation with supervision and treatment throughout his life.
    Dr.   Phenix    expressly   opined     that   outpatient   treatment   was
    insufficient.
    If Wetmore participates in and is responsive to inpatient
    sex offender treatment, he may petition for release every six
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    months for the duration of his confinement.        See 
    18 U.S.C. § 4247
    (h). He can be released unconditionally if no longer dangerous
    or, if not dangerous under a regimen of sex offender treatment, he
    can be conditionally discharged subject to participating in a
    prescribed plan.    See 
    id.
     § 4248(e)(1) & (2).   That point has not
    yet been reached.
    Affirmed.
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