United States v. Russell , 728 F.3d 23 ( 2013 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 12-1315
    UNITED STATES,
    Appellee,
    v.
    RODNEY L. RUSSELL,
    Defendant, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MAINE
    [Hon. John A. Woodcock, Jr., U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Lynch, Chief Judge,
    Thompson and Kayatta, Circuit Judges.
    William S. Maddox for appellant.
    Margaret D. McGaughey, Assistant United States Attorney, with
    whom Thomas E. Delahanty II, United States Attorney, was on brief,
    for appellee.
    August 26, 2013
    THOMPSON, Circuit Judge.      Appellant Rodney L. Russell
    applied for and received government subsidized health care coverage
    for several years.     Although Russell was working under the table
    during those years, he claimed on his renewal applications that he
    had no income to report.        After a government investigation,
    indictment, and multi-day trial, a jury convicted Russell of making
    false statements in connection with the payment of health care
    benefits, 
    18 U.S.C. § 1035
    (a)(2).       On appeal, Russell attacks his
    conviction on multiple grounds.     After careful consideration, we
    affirm.
    BACKGROUND
    A.   Health Care Subsidy
    We walk through the relevant facts in the light most
    favorable to the verdict.    United States v. Mercado, 
    412 F.3d 243
    ,
    245 (1st Cir. 2005).
    Shortly after losing his job and accompanying health
    insurance in 2006, Russell applied for subsidized health insurance
    coverage through the Dirigo Health Agency's DirigoChoice Health
    Program ("Dirigo").    In 2003, the Maine legislature created Dirigo
    Health Agency to expand access to health insurance coverage for
    Maine citizens who cannot otherwise afford it.      Dirigo negotiates
    competitive rates and benefit packages with private insurance
    carriers.   Through the DirigoChoice Program ("Dirigo Choice"), the
    agency also subsidizes insurance premiums for Maine citizens whose
    -2-
    income level falls below 300% of the federal poverty level.                   The
    subsidy must be renewed every twelve months.
    To qualify for the subsidy, applicants must fill out two
    applications:     an insurance application to the insurance carrier
    and a subsidy application to Dirigo.              The applicant certifies the
    subsidy application and submits supporting documentation, such as
    income tax returns and proof of income.                The primary determinants
    of subsidy eligibility are income and household size.
    In 2006, after losing his job as a stockbroker and
    financial advisor at the retirement investment firm Commonwealth
    Financial Network d/b/a Brown Company, and his accompanying health
    insurance, Russell applied for and received subsidized health
    insurance     coverage        through    Dirigo      Choice.     Russell's   2006
    application included information about his employment and income,
    as   well    as   a     pay    stub     from   the     Bureau   of   Unemployment
    Compensation.1        It also included a signed certification statement
    that read:
    In signing this statement, I certify that I
    meet the eligibility requirements checked
    above.   If I'm covering my spouse/domestic
    partner, I certify that he/she also meets
    individual eligibility requirements. I will
    contact the Dirigo Health Agency if my
    circumstances change.     I understand that
    failure to do so may result in loss of
    coverage for me and my family members.
    1
    Russell received unemployment                  benefits   roughly   between
    October 2006 and March 2007.
    -3-
    The following year, Russell applied to renew his subsidy.
    Where the application asked about gross wages, tips and salaries,
    Russell responded, "not available."         Russell also indicated "not
    available" when asked about his net self-employment income and
    gross receipts minus allowable business expenses.           He reported an
    $8,000 IRA withdrawal, $575 monthly rent, and $600 cash left in his
    account which he said he would be "taking out soon."               Russell
    signed a verification clause on the application which read in
    pertinent part:
    I understand the questions on this form. All
    statements and answers I have given are true
    and complete. The Dirigo Health Agency . . .
    may check information submitted on this form
    . . . . I understand it's a crime to knowingly
    provide false, incomplete, or misleading
    information on this form and that I could be
    charged with perjury.
    Relying on the information in Russell's application, in November
    2007, Dirigo awarded him an 80% subsidy in the amount of $4,100 for
    another full year of coverage (December 1, 2007 through November
    2008).2
    Russell applied to renew his subsidy a second time on
    October 29, 2008.     The 2008 renewal application included his 2007
    tax   return   and   reported   IRA    distributions   of   $9,133.33   and
    unemployment benefits of $4,160 for a total income of $13,293.33.
    Russell represented he had no gross wages, tips, or salaries before
    2
    At the time of Russell's renewal application, the income cut
    off was $14,700.
    -4-
    deductions to report by responding "zero" on the relevant section
    of the application.      He also signed a similar certification that
    accompanied   his   2007    renewal     application.      Relying     on   the
    information   provided     in   the   2008   renewal   application,   Dirigo
    awarded Russell an 80% subsidy in the amount of $7,500.3
    A year later in 2009, Russell submitted a third renewal
    application. He represented he had no gross wages, tips, salaries,
    or self-employment income by answering "zero" on the relevant lines
    in the application.   He also completed the same certification that
    accompanied his 2007 and 2008 renewal applications.          In an October
    29, 2009 email exchange with Tarnya Brunelle, an eligibility
    specialist at Dirigo, Russell confirmed that he had "not received
    unemployment benefits or any other kind of income since spring
    2007."    Based on Russell's representations in his 2009 renewal
    application, Dirigo awarded him an 80% subsidy in the amount of
    $4,100.
    For three years -- 2007, 2008, and 2009 -- Russell had
    received a subsidy based on his representations on each application
    that he had no income to report and that he was unemployed, but
    neither turned out to be true.        He had in fact been working for his
    high school friend, Malcolm French, all along.
    3
    At the time of Russell's 2008 renewal application, the income
    cutoff for the subsidy was $15,600.
    -5-
    B.     The Trial
    A federal grand jury investigation eventually led to an
    indictment    charging   Russell    with   six   counts   of   making   false
    statements in receiving health care benefits in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 1035
    (a)(2).      Each count corresponds to the date of an
    alleged false statement:     November 7, 2007, the date of Russell's
    2007 renewal application (Count One); October 26, 2008, the date of
    his 2008 renewal application (Count Two); October 29, 2008, the
    date of the signed certification that accompanied the 2008 renewal
    application (Count Three); October 23, 2009, the date of the 2009
    renewal application (Count Four), and the date of the signed
    certification (Count Five); and October 29, 2009, the time stamped
    on the email exchange between Russell and Burnell from Dirigo
    (Count Six).     The case proceeded to trial on April 25, 2011.
    1.   Employment with Malcolm French
    At trial, the government presented evidence that Russell,
    after losing his job at the Brown Company in 2006, started working
    in some capacity for French.           French owns several businesses
    including:     Cold Stream Contracting, a gravel and construction
    business;4 Malcolm French Professional Forestry, which cuts trees,
    hauls wood, and performs other forestry services; Malcolm French
    Logging; and a garage in Enfield (now in LaGrange), Maine.
    4
    French has employees put ground cover over salmon culverts on
    Cold Stream Contracting property.
    -6-
    The jury heard testimony from French employees that they
    had seen Russell working in French's office.    Steven Benson Jr., a
    French employee, testified he saw Russell work in French's office
    once or twice every two or three weeks when Benson dropped off
    paperwork.    When Benson dropped off paperwork, he would pass it to
    Russell if Russell was there.     According to Benson, Russell used
    the computer in the office on at least one occasion and several
    times endorsed checks with a rubber stamp bearing French's name.5
    If Benson called looking for French, Russell sometimes answered the
    phone. Another employee of French, Jeffrey Fogg, testified that he
    saw Russell at the computer in the office and recalled giving
    Russell time cards and receipts from different purchases.
    In addition to the testimony of French's employees,
    Russell's ex-wife, Julie Plummer, testified that Russell wore work
    boots, worked late, and complained about working hard and doing
    backbreaking work.      Rhonda Henderson, Russell's current wife,
    testified that shortly after they met in August 2007, Russell
    introduced her to Malcolm French, and his wife, Barbara French.
    Russell claimed that he was working for himself cutting wood on
    French's land. At one point, Russell, according to Henderson, told
    her that he was helping Malcolm French install culverts to allow
    salmon to swim upstream on his (French's) property as part of the
    5
    Benson did not see Russell after French built his new garage
    in LaGrange, Maine in 2009.
    -7-
    work done by an entity called Old Stream Conservation Associates.
    Bank records showed that Russell signed checks on behalf of Old
    Stream Conservation Associates.
    Jerald Davis, an employee of Griffin Greenhouse Supplies
    in Maine, which sells greenhouse and nursery supplies, recalled
    speaking to Russell around a dozen times both in person and by
    telephone about purchasing supplies for Cold Stream Contracting.
    Davis remembered Russell in particular because he always paid for
    his purchases, such as $9,000-$11,000 worth of soil and multiple
    bags of fertilizer, using cash placed in Ziploc bags.                  Davis
    testified that Russell told him he needed these and other materials
    for the salmon culverts.6
    2.    Cash In
    The government introduced evidence that French had been
    paying Russell in cash and Russell, in turn, paid his bills in
    cash.       Bank records showed that between January 2007 and 2009,
    $30,000 cash was deposited into Russell's account, but there were
    no checks from Cold Stream Contracting (not to be confused with Old
    Stream Conservation); there might have been one check from French
    Professional Forestry. One French employee, who was always present
    when other French employees picked up their paychecks, testified
    that the employees received their paychecks in envelopes bearing
    6
    Davis was not aware           of   a   business   called   Old   Stream
    Conservation Associates.
    -8-
    their names, but he never saw Russell's name on any of those
    envelopes.
    3.    Cash Out
    Between 2007 and 2009, Russell, according to Henderson,
    paid $500 in monthly household bills and several thousand dollars
    for his daughter's college tuition in cash. As for Russell's rent,
    with the exception of a February 2007 payment, evidence at trial
    also showed his rent got paid with cash or money orders.
    4.   Boston Financial
    But there was more.        Through the testimony of a human
    resources specialist for Boston Financial in Rockland, Maine, the
    government put forth the resume and employment application Russell
    submitted     in   March   or   April    2010    for    a    customer   service
    representative position with Boston Financial.                Russell's resume
    stated that between January 2007 and August 2009, he was employed
    as Treasurer for Old Stream Conservation Association in Maine.               He
    listed as his primary responsibilities managing the budget and
    bookkeeping.       His resume also listed his prior employment as a
    financial    advisor   with     the   Brown   Company       and   PaineWebber.
    Russell's completed employment application stated his starting and
    final salaries for Old Stream Conservation were $10 per hour.               The
    application listed Old Stream's business address, French as his
    supervisor, and paying bills and communicating with agencies as his
    duties.     Russell signed the application under the certification
    -9-
    attesting to its truthfulness.    After Russell passed a background
    check, Boston Financial hired him.
    5.   Russell's Defense
    The defense's theory, as indicated by closing arguments,
    was that there was no proof Russell ever received cash from French,
    or that Russell was even employed by French. Russell, according to
    the defense, got by every day by living on cash gifts and loans
    from family and friends and reducing his daily expenses.7    And as
    far as the Boston Financial application, Russell listed employment
    for French only because he wanted to avoid the appearance of a gap
    in his employment history -- a gap he thought would raise red flags
    to Boston Financial and decrease his chances of getting hired.
    After a four-day trial, the jury found Russell guilty on
    Counts Two through Five, but not guilty on Counts One and Six.   The
    district court denied Russell's renewed motion for a judgment of
    acquittal, or, in the alternative, a new trial.    Russell's appeal
    followed.
    7
    Russell's brother and sister, as well as several of his
    friends, testified that they loaned Russell money between 2007 and
    2009. Attorney Michael Griffin testified that at French's request,
    he incorporated Old Stream Conservation in 2006.     According to
    Griffin, Old Stream Conservation did not employ Russell, but
    Russell did serve as the company spokesman and was authorized to
    sign checks on its behalf.
    -10-
    DISCUSSION
    Russell    claims    multiple      errors   below.        First,    he
    challenges the jury instructions on willfulness under 
    18 U.S.C. § 1035
    (a)(2).     Second, he contends that the government failed to
    present sufficient evidence that his alleged false statements were
    material to support the conviction.              Third, Russell argues the
    district court erroneously excluded testimony by Henderson about
    his state of mind when applying for the job with Boston Financial
    in   2010.      And    finally,       Russell   makes    multiple      claims    of
    prosecutorial misconduct.         We address each argument in seriatim,
    providing additional facts as necessary.
    I.    Jury Instructions
    We start with Russell's challenge to the jury instruction
    on   the   definition     of    the   willfulness    element      of   
    18 U.S.C. § 1035
    (a)(2).         Because Russell preserved his objection to the
    district court's refusal to give his requested instruction, our
    review is de novo.       United States v. Fernandez, Nos. 12-1289, 12-
    1290, 
    2013 WL 3215461
    , at *10 (1st Cir. June 26, 2013); United
    States v. Baird, 
    712 F.3d 623
    , 627-28 (1st Cir. 2013).                      We will
    reverse the district court's refusal to give the instruction "only
    if the instruction was (1) substantively correct as a matter of
    law, (2) not substantially covered by the charge as rendered, and
    (3) integral to an important point in the case so that the omission
    of the instruction seriously impaired the defendant's ability to
    -11-
    present his defense."      Baird, 712 F.3d at 628; United States v.
    Whitney, 
    524 F.3d 134
    , 138 (1st Cir. 2008).
    
    18 U.S.C. § 1035
    (a)(2), the charged offense, provides in
    pertinent part:
    (a) Whoever, in any matter involving a health
    care benefit program, knowingly and willfully
    . . .
    (2) makes any materially false, fictitious, or
    fraudulent statements or representations, or
    makes or uses any materially false writing or
    document knowing the same to contain any
    materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent
    statement or entry,
    in connection with the delivery of or payment
    for health care benefits, items, or services,
    shall be fined under this title or imprisoned
    not more than 5 years, or both.
    
    18 U.S.C. § 1035
    (a)(2).
    In charging the jury, the district court described the
    elements of making a false statement in connection with a health
    care benefit program under § 1035(a)(2).           The district court
    instructed that the government had to prove beyond a reasonable
    doubt    six   elements.     The   first   was   that   Dirigo   Choice,
    "administered by the Dirigo Health Agency, is a healthcare benefit
    program as that phrase is defined in these instructions."           The
    second was that Russell "knowingly and willfully made a false
    statement substantially as charged in the indictment" for each
    count.    The court instructed that "[a] false statement is made
    knowingly and willfully if Rodney Russell knew it was false or
    -12-
    demonstrated a reckless disregard for the truth with a conscious
    purpose to avoid learning the truth." The court told the jury that
    "[a] statement is false if it was untrue when made."                    To decide
    whether the defendant acted knowingly, the court continued, "you
    may   infer    he   had   knowledge   of   a   fact   if   you   find    that   he
    deliberately closed his eyes to a fact that otherwise would have
    been obvious to him."       The jury was reminded that it was "entirely
    up to [them] to determine whether he deliberately closed his eyes
    to the fact and, if so, what inference, if any, should be drawn"
    and to "bear in mind that mere negligence or mistake in failing to
    learn the fact is not sufficient."
    The court then explained the third element: that Russell
    "made the statement voluntarily and intentionally."                     The court
    described "voluntarily and intentionally" to "mean[] that the
    government must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Mr. Russell
    did not make the statement by accident or mistake."                The court's
    instructions then addressed the last three elements:              that Russell
    "made the false statement in connection with a healthcare benefit
    program"; that Russell "made the false statement in connection with
    the delivery of or payment for healthcare benefits, items, or
    services"; and lastly, that Russell's "statement was material to
    the Dirigo Health Agency."        On materiality, the court instructed
    the jury that "[a] material fact or matter is one that has a
    -13-
    natural tendency to influence or be capable of influencing the
    decision of the decisionmaker to whom it was addressed."
    On appeal, as he did below, Russell says the court's jury
    instruction on the definition of willfulness was wrong. Relying on
    other circuit decisions interpreting the language of 
    18 U.S.C. § 1347
    , he claims that to convict for a violation of § 1035(a)(2),
    the government must not only prove that Russell's statements were
    false and that he knew they were false, but that he also knew that
    making those false statements was illegal.           He says the district
    court's refusal to adopt his proposed instruction on willfulness,
    requiring that the government prove illegality or "bad purpose,"
    was erroneous.8
    We   have   not   had   the    occasion    to   decide   whether
    willfulness, as it is used in § 1035, requires the government to
    prove that the defendant knew that making the false statement was
    illegal.   The Ninth Circuit, however, recently tackled this issue
    head-on in United States v. Ajoku, 
    718 F.3d 882
     (9th Cir. 2013),
    and rejected the argument that Russell makes before us -- that the
    8
    Russell proposed the following instruction on willfulness:
    An act or failure to act is "willful" if done voluntarily
    and intentionally, and with the specific intent to do
    something the law forbids, or with specific intent to
    fail to do something the law requires to be done; that is
    to say, with bad purpose either to disobey or to
    disregard the law.    Thus, if you find Rodney Russell
    acted in good faith, he cannot be guilty of the crime or
    crimes charged.
    -14-
    willfulness element of § 1035 requires knowledge of unlawfulness.
    Id. at 890. In Ajoku, the court explained that willfulness, in the
    context of false statement crimes such as 18 U.S.C § 1001, is
    defined as "deliberately and with knowledge"; proving the defendant
    knew making the false statement was illegal is not required.                      Id.
    at 889.    Such an interpretation of the definition of willfulness,
    the court observed, is consistent with the traditional rule that
    "ignorance of the law is no defense."               Id. (citing Bryan v. United
    States, 
    524 U.S. 184
    , 196 (1998)).               The court went on to explain
    that the language in § 1001 (where it got its definition of
    willfulness) is nearly identical to that found in § 1035.                         Id.
    ("While § 1035 sanctions anyone who 'knowingly and willfully . . .
    makes any materially false, fictitious or fraudulent statements or
    representations,'       §    1001    sanctions      anyone    who    'knowingly   and
    willfully   .   .   .   makes       any     materially      false,   fictitious    or
    fraudulent statement or representation.'").                  The court noted that
    the only substantive difference between the two statutes is that
    § 1035 is limited to matters involving a health care benefit
    program,    while   §       1001    deals    only    with    matters    within    the
    jurisdiction of the executive, legislative, or judicial branch of
    the federal government.            Id. at 889.
    In addition to the nearly identical language in these two
    criminal statutes involving false statements, the court observed
    that they were enacted for the same purpose:                  "to protect federal
    -15-
    interests    from     the   harms   of   knowing    and     willful      fraud   and
    deception."       Id. at 890.   In light of their similar language and
    shared    purpose,    the   court   held     that   the    same   definition      of
    "willful" used in § 1001 applies in interpreting "willful" in
    § 1035.    Id.    Because the district court's jury instructions used
    that definition -- i.e., "deliberately and with knowledge that the
    statements were untrue or the document was false" -- the Ninth
    Circuit concluded the district court did not err when instructing
    the jury.     Id.     We agree with the Ninth Circuit's reasoning and
    hold that, as used in § 1035, the "willfulness" element does not
    require the government to prove that the defendant knew it was a
    crime to make the particular false statement.
    Russell's reliance on Bryan v. United States, 
    524 U.S. 184
     (1998), to urge us to conclude otherwise is misplaced.                         In
    Bryan, the defendant was convicted of dealing in firearms without
    a license in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (a)(1)(D).                   
    524 U.S. at 189-90
    .   The defendant challenged his conviction, arguing that the
    court erred by failing to instruct that the government had to prove
    that he knew of the licensing requirement.                
    Id. at 190
    .      Russell
    latches    onto     the   Supreme   Court's    observation        that    the    word
    "willful," when used in the criminal context, generally means the
    act was undertaken with a "bad purpose."                  
    Id. at 191
    .      But the
    Supreme Court also made clear that "[t]he word 'willfully' is
    sometimes said to be 'a word of many meanings' whose construction
    -16-
    is often dependent on the context in which it appears."             
    Id.
       In
    the   context   of   Russell's   case,   which   involves   a   §   1035(a)
    violation, we agree with the Ninth Circuit that an instruction on
    "willfulness" does not necessarily require knowledge of illegality.
    The other circuit decisions cited by Russell do not hold
    otherwise. See United States v. Jones, 
    664 F.3d 966
    , 981 (5th Cir.
    2011) (holding only that a jury instruction lowering the mens rea
    requirement from "knowingly and willfully" to "knew, or should have
    known" was inappropriate); United States v. Delgado, 
    668 F.3d 219
    ,
    225 & n.3 (5th Cir. 2012) (merely noting, but not giving substance
    to, the willfulness requirement); United States v. Hayes, 
    574 F.3d 460
    , 477-78 (8th Cir. 2009) (motion for acquittal should have been
    granted where no evidence suggested that defendant was aware that
    false statement was being made).9
    Because the district court here properly instructed the
    jury that the government need only prove that the defendant's
    statements were false and that the defendant knew they were false,
    we find no error.
    9
    Russell's reliance on United States v. Awad, 
    551 F.3d 930
    ,
    938-40 (9th Cir. 2009), is particularly misplaced. As discussed
    above, even to the extent that dictum in that case suggests that
    there can be no willfulness without knowledge of illegality, not
    even the Ninth Circuit applies that rule to cases under § 1035.
    See Ajoku, 718 F.3d at 882.
    -17-
    II.   Materiality
    Russell's next challenge concerns the materiality of his
    alleged misrepresentations to Dirigo on his 2008 and 2009 subsidy
    applications and certifications.          He says there was insufficient
    evidence for the jury to conclude that the false statements he made
    were material to Dirigo's decision to award him subsidized health
    care because even if he was working, his income in those years
    would have still made him eligible for the subsidy.
    We review Russell's sufficiency of the evidence challenge
    de novo, considering the evidence in the light most favorable to
    the verdict.     United States v. Rios-Ortiz, 
    708 F.3d 310
    , 315 (1st
    Cir. 2013).     We will reverse only if we find that "no rational
    factfinder could have concluded that the evidence presented at
    trial, together with all reasonable inferences, established each
    element of the crime beyond a reasonable doubt."           United States v.
    Symonevich, 
    688 F.3d 12
    , 23 (1st Cir. 2012) (citing United States
    v. Rodriguez-Vélez, 
    597 F.3d 32
    , 39 (1st Cir. 2010)).
    "[A] false statement is material if it has a 'natural
    tendency to influence, or [is] capable of influencing, the decision
    of the decisionmaking body to which it was addressed.'"              Neder v.
    United States, 
    527 U.S. 1
    , 16 (1999) (quoting United States v.
    Gaudin, 
    515 U.S. 506
    , 509 (1995)) (alteration in original).               The
    government    need   not   prove   that    the   false   statement   actually
    -18-
    influenced or deceived the decisionmaker. United States v. Newell,
    
    658 F.3d 1
    , 17 (1st Cir. 2011).
    The   jury    here    could   have    reasonably   concluded    that
    Russell's statements had a natural tendency to influence Dirigo's
    decision to award him subsidized health care, and thus were
    material, even if Dirigo did not actually rely on those statements.
    At trial, the jury heard testimony from Dirigo's director that
    there was a limit on the income an applicant could earn in 2008 and
    2009 to be eligible for an 80% health care subsidy like the one
    Russell was awarded.     The jury learned that Dirigo does not employ
    investigators to verify statements made by applicants on subsidy
    applications    and    that    the   agency    therefore   has    to   rely   on
    applicants' statements in determining eligibility.                 The agency
    requires the applicant to sign a certification to help it ensure
    that all the representations made by the applicant are true.
    Russell was awarded a $7,500 subsidy in 2008, and a $4,100 subsidy
    in October 2009, based on his representation in his application
    that he was neither employed nor receiving income.               He signed the
    accompanying certifications attesting to the truthfulness of his
    statements in those applications.
    During closing arguments, defense counsel argued that
    Russell's statements could not have been material to Dirigo's
    decision because he would have qualified for a subsidy even if he
    had accurately reported his income.            The government, on the other
    -19-
    hand, urged that materiality turns on whether the false statements
    have a natural tendency to influence or are capable of influencing
    the decisionmaker.     Whether Russell's statements were material was
    ultimately a question for the jury.               But the record clearly
    supports a finding that Russell received income in the amount he
    reported, plus some additional sums that he did not disclose.             Had
    he forthrightly stated on his application that he had unspecified
    amounts of undocumented cash income above the precise amounts he
    reported, it is reasonable to believe that Dirigo might well have
    determined     that   he   failed   to     meet   his   burden   of   proving
    eligibility.    As we said, the government need only prove that the
    false statement had a "natural tendency to influence, or [is]
    capable of influencing, the decision."             Neder, 
    527 U.S. at 16
    (quoting Gaudin, 
    515 U.S. at 509
    ) (alteration in original).             Given
    the evidence presented at trial, we believe that a rational fact
    finder could conclude that they were material.
    Russell says that the court's rulings on the loss amount
    and restitution at sentencing support his argument that the false
    statements were not "material" to Dirigo's decision to award
    Russell subsidized health care and that, as a result, the jury's
    verdict cannot stand.       The district judge's remarks at Russell's
    sentencing do not change our view.         At sentencing, the judge heard
    counsel on the amount of loss and whether restitution should be
    ordered.     The judge summarized the defense's argument -- namely,
    -20-
    that there was no actual loss because "the false statement didn't
    make a difference."    The defense's theory, as understood by the
    judge, was that even if Russell was working at the time of his
    alleged false statements in 2008 and 2010, there is no evidence he
    earned more than the amount that he would have been allowed to earn
    to receive subsidized coverage.     And thus, "if he had told the
    truth, the result would have been the same."
    Noting the complexity in calculating the loss amount, the
    judge concluded that there was insufficient evidence in the record
    to determine what amount Russell earned while employed by French
    from the fall of 2007 to June 2010.     There was "no basis," in the
    judge's view, "to logically come to the conclusion that [Russell]
    made more than the amounts that would have entitled him to the
    subsidy . . . ."      The judge then addressed the government's
    argument that the loss calculation should be determined by the
    amount in premiums (estimated by the government at $19,000) that
    Russell intended to take by falsely claiming he was not working on
    the subsidy renewal applications.      In doing so, the judge said he
    was not "convinced, based on th[e] record, that [Russell] intended
    to steal premiums from the Dirigo program by falsely reporting no
    income."    The judge was, however, convinced that Russell was
    working and that he was working for Malcolm French.         What was
    perplexing for the judge was why Russell did not simply report he
    was working.
    -21-
    Because Russell's earnings could not be calculated, the
    judge concluded he could neither determine the loss amount nor
    order restitution.      The judge explained that the record did not
    support a finding that Russell "would not have been entitled to the
    subsidy in any event."        And, the judge added, if Russell was
    entitled to the subsidy, there was no "victim for whom restitution
    is owed."
    The court's conclusion as to loss amount and restitution
    does not call into question the jury's finding that the false
    statements to Dirigo were material.      In imposing the sentence, the
    court made clear that the verdict was "compelled by the evidence,"
    explaining that Russell "knew he was lying when he completed th[e]
    forms and said he was not working."          It was for the jury to
    determine whether Russell's misrepresentations to Dirigo were
    capable of influencing its decision to award him subsidized health
    care, even if, as defense counsel argued, his earnings at the time
    were so low that he still would have been eligible to receive the
    subsidy.      As indicated by the verdict, they answered in the
    affirmative, and we will not disturb their conclusion.
    III.   State-of-Mind Exception Under Rule 803(3)
    At trial, Henderson testified that she was aware Russell
    completed an application with Boston Financial prior to being
    offered a job there.      At that point, defense counsel asked her:
    "Was Mr. Russell worried that if he didn't put down that he was
    -22-
    employed by Old Stream Conservation and that he was earning money
    from it, that he wouldn't get the job with Boston Financial?"
    After   Henderson     responded,   "Yes,"    the    government    objected    on
    hearsay grounds. Defense counsel argued that Henderson's testimony
    that Russell was worried was admissible as a state-of-mind hearsay
    exception under Federal Rule of Evidence 803(3).
    After hearing argument from counsel and voir dire of
    Henderson    (which    revealed    she     helped    Russell     complete    the
    application), the court ruled that Henderson's testimony about
    Russell's worry and the reason for his worry was not admissible
    under the rule.        Russell's statement to Henderson that he was
    worried, the court said, was inseparable from Russell's memory
    about his employment history from 2007 to 2009 when completing the
    form.
    On appeal, Russell continues to press that Henderson's
    testimony about Russell's state of mind when he was completing his
    2010 job application for Boston Financial is admissible under Rule
    803(3).     Under that rule, hearsay is admissible if it is a
    statement that expresses a declarant's state of mind at the time
    the statement is made.      The rule allows, in pertinent part, any:
    statement of [a] declarant's then existing
    state of mind . . . such as intent, plan,
    motive, design, mental feeling . . . but not
    including a statement of memory or belief to
    prove the fact remembered or believed unless
    it relates to the execution, revocation,
    identification, or terms of declarant's will.
    -23-
    Fed. R. Evid. 803(3).
    To be admissible under the state-of-mind exception, the
    declaration, among other things, "must mirror a state of mind,
    which, in light of all the circumstances, including proximity in
    time, is reasonably likely to have been the same condition existing
    at the material time." United States v. Rivera-Hernández, 
    497 F.3d 71
    , 81 (1st Cir. 2007) (quoting Colasanto v. Life Ins. Co. of N.
    Am., 
    100 F.3d 203
    , 212 (1st Cir. 1996)) (internal quotation marks
    and citations omitted).           Because "disputes over whether particular
    statements        come   within   the   state-of-mind    exception     are    fact-
    sensitive, the trial court is in the best position to resolve
    them."     Colasanto, 
    100 F.3d at 212
    .
    Russell's argument as to why Henderson's testimony should
    have been admissible under Rule 803(3) is confusing.                   On the one
    hand, he says that her testimony does not attempt to establish that
    he   did    not    falsely     claim    he   was   unemployed   on   his   subsidy
    applications; the testimony, he says, was simply to reflect his
    state of mind in 2010 that he listed employment with French because
    he was worried that if he did not, Boston Financial would see a gap
    in his employment history and not hire him.              On the other hand, he
    claims that Henderson should have been able to describe his mental
    state      in    2010    to   explain    the    difference   between    his    2010
    application to Boston Financial (which represented he was employed
    -24-
    by French) and his previous subsidy applications (which represented
    he was unemployed).
    The district court did not err in excluding Henderson's
    testimony.     Rule 803(3) bars the introduction of "a statement of
    memory or belief to prove the fact remembered or believed."
    Henderson was prevented from testifying as to Russell's alleged
    belief about his lack of recent work history and the impact it
    would have on a prospective employer; as Russell admits, one
    purpose of this testimony was to prove that Russell lacked recent
    work history.    The court did not err in excluding this testimony.
    Even if, for argument's sake, the district court had
    erred, any error was harmless.    "Erroneous evidentiary rulings are
    harmless if it is highly probable that the error did not affect the
    outcome of the case."      McDonough v. City of Quincy, 
    452 F.3d 8
    ,
    19-20 (1st Cir. 2006).       That requirement is satisfied here.
    Henderson's testimony addressed why Russell said he was French's
    employee on the 2010 application, when he claimed on his benefits
    applications that he was not -- i.e., to avoid a gap in employment
    which would concern a future employer.      Even though Henderson's
    testimony on that specific point was excluded, both she and
    Jennifer Holgerson, a human resources representative at Boston
    Financial, testified about how they would perceive a substantial
    gap in a job applicant's employment history.      Henderson, as the
    director of an assisted living facility who hired employees,
    -25-
    explained that she would view with skepticism any application that
    had a four-year gap in employment.            Holgerson testified that such
    a gap would raise "red flags" when reviewing a job application.
    In   his   closing     argument,    defense     counsel   exploited
    Holgerson's testimony. He argued that Russell said he was French's
    employee on his 2010 Boston Financial application because if he did
    not, "he'd have to deal with a four-year employment gap," which as
    Holgerson testified, "would raise red flags if there wasn't an
    adequate explanation for it."             Thus, even without Henderson's
    testimony addressing the reason Russell was worried when completing
    the job application, the jury had learned from Holgerson, as
    pointed out by defense counsel in his closing argument, that a
    potential employer would be concerned about an applicant who had a
    four-year gap in his employment.
    IV.    Prosecutorial Misconduct
    Russell's prosecutorial misconduct claim attacks various
    statements     made     by    the   prosecutor    in   his   closing   and   the
    prosecutor's alleged reference to Russell's gambling when eliciting
    testimony from a witness.           Because Russell raised no objection at
    trial, we review for plain error.             See United States v. Kasenge,
    
    660 F.3d 537
    , 541 (1st Cir. 2013).              Under that standard, Russell
    must show that: "(1) an error occurred (2) which was clear or
    obvious and which not only (3) affected the defendant's substantial
    rights, but also (4) seriously impaired the fairness, integrity, or
    -26-
    public reputation of [the] proceedings."                  
    Id. at 542
     (quoting
    United States v. Duarte, 
    246 F.3d 56
    , 60 (1st Cir. 2001)).               We will
    reverse only if, in light of the entire record, the challenged
    prosecutorial conduct "so poisoned the well that the trial's
    outcome was likely affected." United States v. Henderson, 
    320 F.3d 92
    , 107 (1st Cir. 2003) (quoting United States v. Sepulveda, 
    15 F.3d 1161
    , 1188 (1st Cir. 1993)).                To make that assessment, we
    consider:   "'(1)      the    severity    of    the   prosecutor's   misconduct,
    including whether it was deliberate or accidental; (2) the context
    in which the misconduct occurred; (3) whether the judge gave
    curative instructions and the likely effect of such instructions;
    and (4) the strength of the evidence against the defendants.'"
    Kasenge,    660        F.3d    at   542        (quoting   United     States   v.
    Nelson–Rodriguez, 
    319 F.3d 12
    , 38 (1st Cir. 2003)).                   With this
    standard in mind, we turn first to the specific statements made by
    the prosecutor at closing that Russell claims require reversal.
    A.    The Prosecutor's Closing Argument
    1.    Alleged Reference to Russell's Failure to Testify
    Russell first contends that the prosecutor improperly
    commented on his failure to testify by arguing: (1) "[w]hy do you
    suppose the defendant would not want his name listed as treasurer"
    of Old Stream Conservation during a time when he was telling Dirigo
    that he was unemployed and had no income; (2) that the jury would
    "know from his own job application that the defendant was being
    -27-
    paid by Old Stream between 2007 and 2009, but there was not a
    single paycheck deposited into the defendant's bank account during
    that period of time"; and (3) that "[t]here's no indication in [the
    call log] that Mr. Russell called up Dirigo Health and said, whoa,
    wait a minute, what am I getting these benefits for?"                        Russell
    recites   these     statements,      but    he     fails   to   explain     why    they
    constitute improper commentary.
    In    assessing      whether     a    prosecutor      has     improperly
    commented on a defendant's exercise of his Fifth Amendment rights
    against self-incrimination, we typically look to "whether the
    prosecutor's language shows a manifest intention to comment on the
    defendant's failure to testify and whether the jury would naturally
    and necessarily understand it to be a comment on the defendant's
    failure to testify."         United States v. Barbour, 
    393 F.3d 82
    , 90
    (1st Cir. 2004) (citing United States v. Wihbey, 
    75 F.3d 761
    , 769
    (1st Cir. 1996)).         In doing so, we neither "lightly infer that a
    prosecutor intends an ambiguous remark to have its most damaging
    meaning" nor do "we assume the jury will draw from the comments the
    most damaging meaning."           Id. at 91.
    In    this   case,    however,       Russell's     argument    that    the
    prosecutor's statements improperly commented on his failure to
    testify is undeveloped and unsupported by any reference to legal
    authority.        It is therefore waived.            See Cruz v. Bristol-Myers
    Squibb Co., PR, Inc., 
    699 F.3d 563
    , 572 (1st Cir. 2012).                            The
    -28-
    prosecutor's statements cannot plausibly be construed as comments
    on Russell's failure to testify.             But even if the comments were
    improper (and, again, we do not see how they were), they did not
    likely affect the outcome of the trial. See Henderson, 
    320 F.3d at 107
    .   The comments were made once and not elaborated upon, and
    defense counsel did not timely object to the comments, which, as
    our case law suggests, makes it less likely the remarks infected
    the jury.     See United States v. Shoup, 
    476 F.3d 38
    , 44 (1st Cir.
    2007); United States v. Procopio, 
    88 F.3d 21
    , 31 (1st Cir. 1996).
    Any potential influence on the jury was mitigated by the
    jury   instructions,      which   repeated     the    government's   beyond-a-
    reasonable-doubt burden, and stated that the defendant had no
    obligation to testify, and that the jury should draw no inference
    from   his   choice.      In   both   his     preliminary    and   final   jury
    instructions, the judge instructed the jury that the lawyer's
    comments and closing arguments were not evidence, and that it was
    to decide the facts from the evidence presented.               We assume the
    jury   followed   these    instructions.        See    Morales-Vallelanes    v.
    Potter, 
    605 F.3d 27
    , 34-35 (1st Cir. 2010).             Finally, the evidence
    of Russell's guilt was strong, including the renewal subsidy
    applications indicating Russell was not employed or receiving any
    income and the witnesses who testified that Russell was seen
    working in some capacity for French during that time.
    -29-
    Thus, the prosecutor's comments were not significant
    enough to affect Russell's rights or seriously impair his trial.
    2.    The Conspiracy Theory Related Comments
    Russell next argues that the prosecutor made multiple
    comments which, taken together, improperly insinuated that Barbara
    French, Malcolm French, French's employees, Russell, and others
    conspired to hide damaging evidence (that Russell was working and
    being paid under the table) from the government.         The prosecutor's
    closing did not explicitly argue that such a conspiracy existed.
    Russell nonetheless claims that the comments alluded to one, and
    that because the evidence presented at trial did not support a
    conspiracy theory, the comments somehow amounted to prosecutorial
    misconduct.
    a.   Malcolm French and Barbara French
    We start with Russell's argument that the prosecutor
    improperly    commented     on   the   Frenches'   "failure   to   testify,"
    alluding to a conspiracy between the Frenches and Russell.10 During
    his closing argument, the prosecutor said:
    Now, Boston Financial has somebody check his
    references. You heard Ms. Holgerson explain
    the practice and procedure that Boston
    Financial follows every single time somebody
    10
    Russell says that by attributing certain statements to the
    Frenches and drawing the image of a conspiracy between them and
    Russell, the prosecutor commented on the Frenches' failure to
    testify. Because there are no Fifth Amendment implications here,
    we do not see how the prosecutor's comments could have been
    improperly referencing the Frenches' failure to testify.
    -30-
    applies for a job. Mr. Russell knew that they
    were going to check his references. He signed
    a release authorizing Boston Financial to
    contact his references . . . . He provided
    Malcolm French's name and telephone number,
    and you know from Ms. Holgerson that it is
    Boston Financial's practice to check the
    references before hiring and that they
    followed that practice in this case.
    The prosecutor then went on to make the following statement:
    Ms. Holgerson [from Boston Financial]. . . told
    you . . . that if she had received information
    contrary to what was disclosed in the
    application, she would have questioned Mr.
    Russell about it. She also told you she never
    did because she never had to . . . . It is fair
    for you to infer from that evidence and from
    Ms. Holgerson's testimony that Malcolm French
    confirmed that the defendant worked for Old
    Stream Conservation between 2007 and 2009.
    Russell argues this latter comment was improper for two
    reasons.    First, he claims Holgerson never said any of this.
    Second, he says that because Malcolm French is the only one who
    could have confirmed whether Russell worked for him, asking the
    jury to infer from Holgerson's testimony that French confirmed
    Russell's employment amounted to improper comment on French's
    failure to testify. A look at both the prosecutor's statements and
    Holgerson's   testimony    at   trial    show   that   the   prosecutor's
    description of Holgerson's testimony was accurate.
    Holgerson testified that a third-party vendor, Sterling
    Financial ("Sterling"), conducts background checks on all Boston
    Financial applicants.     The background check includes an employment
    reference check.     Holgerson explained that if Boston Financial
    -31-
    cannot confirm a candidate's employment history, it will "reach
    back out to the candidate and do some research with them, ask for
    proof of employment or an explanation."            And if it cannot confirm
    that somebody worked where they said they worked, the discrepancy
    would be brought to her attention.        Holgerson said that it is her
    practice to follow up on such information and that she would not
    ignore that type of information and extend a candidate an offer.
    When it came to Russell's application, Boston Financial,
    according to Holgerson, followed the same hiring process.                She was
    personally involved in that process; she reviewed Russell's resume,
    conducted his phone screening interview, scheduled him to interview
    with a manager, and extended him an offer.              Holgerson testified
    that Sterling ran a background check on Russell (which included the
    employment reference check) and that she never heard from Sterling
    that there was a problem with Russell's background check.
    In light of Holgerson's testimony, we see no error in the
    prosecutor's statements that Holgerson said she would have known if
    the    employment   reference     check      on      Russell     revealed      any
    discrepancies.      The prosecutor's statement that Holgerson would
    have   questioned   Russell     about   it     was    just     another   way    of
    summarizing Holgerson's testimony that she would have followed up
    on this type of information.      Stating that it was fair for the jury
    to infer from Holgerson's testimony that Malcolm French confirmed
    Russell's   employment   with    French   in      connection     with    the   job
    -32-
    application to Boston Financial had nothing to do with French's
    failure to testify.        The inference that French confirmed Russell's
    employment with him can be drawn from Holgerson's testimony about
    Boston Financial's hiring process as it applied to Russell.
    Moving on to Russell's challenge to the prosecutor's
    comments    about   Barbara    French,    Russell     takes   issue    with   the
    prosecutor's statement that she "conveniently failed to send in the
    monthly    Cold   Stream    Contracting     general   ledger"    for   January,
    February, and March 2007.        We see no impropriety.         The prosecutor
    was "entitled to draw the jury's attention to the balance of
    evidence on contested issues."        United States v. Stroman, 
    500 F.3d 61
    , 65 (1st Cir. 2007).          The Frenches' accountant, Gail Davis,
    testified that Barbara French did not send her the general ledger
    (which Barbara French managed) for January, February, March, or
    April 2007. Even though the government focused Davis on whether or
    not she was sent those ledgers (regardless of the reason), Davis
    testified that Barbara's operating system had crashed because she
    had been using an outdated operating system which in turn prevented
    her from sending the ledgers (corresponding to January, February,
    and March 2007).
    Davis further testified that the newer operating system
    generated checks the same way the older system did.              When shown a
    copy of a check from Cold Stream Contracting to Griffin Greenhouse
    dated March 16, 2007, Davis confirmed that the date of the check
    -33-
    indicates it would have been generated even under the older
    operating system. And when asked whether she would know about such
    cash transactions, Davis testified that she would only know about
    them   if   the   Frenches   spoke   to   her   about   them   or   if   those
    transactions were documented on the ledger.         It was up to the jury
    to decide whether Barbara French did not send Davis the ledgers for
    January, February, and March 2007 (given the evidence of the check
    to Griffin Greenhouse) because there were transactions she did not
    want Davis to know about or whether the ledgers were not delivered
    to Davis due to an operational system malfunction (given Davis's
    testimony on that point). The prosecutor's remark merely attempted
    to urge the jury to draw the reasonable inference that Barbara
    French intentionally failed to send Davis the ledgers in light of
    the evidence that Cold Stream made check payments that were neither
    noted on the ledger nor shared with Davis.
    b.   Testimony of French's Accountant
    We find no merit in Russell's additional claim that the
    prosecutor's remarks overstated Davis's testimony. In arguing that
    the evidence established that Russell was being paid in cash by
    French in 2007, 2008, and 2009, the prosecutor said:
    The evidence establishes that Cold Stream was
    dealing in cash at Griffin Greenhouse.         Old
    Stream has cash being deposited into its account.
    We know that none of this cash is going through
    their   books   and   records;   Malcolm's    paid
    accountant told you that and established that for
    you.   She told you that if Malcolm was paying
    expenses in cash and not withdrawing the cash
    -34-
    from the bank account and not telling her about
    it, she would have no reason to know about it
    . . . .
    The   prosecutor's       summary    was   a    fair   representation      of    the
    accountant's testimony. When asked about cash withdrawals from the
    Cold Stream account, Davis testified that there was only one cash
    withdrawal in the three-year period (from 2007 to 2009) for $200 or
    $500 to make a cash payment to an oil company.            According to Davis,
    if Cold Stream had told her it "kept cash on-hand," she "would know
    about it."    Davis also said that if Cold Stream had any cash on-
    hand, it would have to be reported on its tax returns; she did not
    know of any cash on-hand listed on Cold Stream's tax returns.
    3.   "Bagman"
    Russell next takes issue with the prosecutor's statement
    that "[t]he defendant acting as the bagman dropping off bags of
    cash . . . [t]his is how Mr. [Jerald] Davis remembered Mr.
    Russell." Russell says that in addition to the fact that Davis did
    not   use   the   term    "bagman,"     the    term   bagman   conjures    up   an
    impermissible unsavory connotation that warrants a new trial.                   We
    disagree. The prosecutor's comments referring to Davis's testimony
    that he remembered Russell dropping off bags of cash was consistent
    with Davis's testimony.       Davis testified that Russell paid $9,000
    to $11,000 in cash for truckloads of soil and multiple bags of
    fertilizer from Griffin Greenhouse.            Davis said Russell brought in
    the cash in a Ziploc bag on more than one occasion.                 When asked
    -35-
    what stood out the most in Davis's mind about Russell, Davis said,
    "The cash."
    We       find   nothing   inappropriate    about   using   the   word
    "bagman" to describe Russell, when Davis in fact testified that
    Russell purchased materials from Griffin Greenhouse with cash
    stuffed   in    Ziploc      bags.     Because   the   prosecutor's      comments
    reflected a fair interpretation of Davis's testimony, they did not
    constitute prosecutorial misconduct.11
    B.    The Prosecutor's References to Gambling
    Russell makes one last claim of misconduct based on the
    prosecutor's        cross-examination     of    Russell's     friend,    George
    Hartmann. The prosecutor asked Hartmann about the last time he had
    seen Russell.        Hartmann responded that he had dinner with Russell
    11
    We also reject Russell's cursory argument that the prosecutor
    attempted to rope in to the conspiracy Henderson (Russell's wife)
    and French's employees by misusing their grand jury testimony.
    Russell says the prosecutor improperly began his cross-examination
    of Henderson by asking her if she remembered her grand jury
    testimony, instead of first asking her a question which might have
    revealed she needed her memory refreshed with her grand jury
    testimony.   Russell further claims the prosecutor's imaginary
    conspiracy theory was apparent by his statements in closing about
    the differences between the grand jury testimony of Fogg, Benson,
    and Webber (all French employees), and their testimony at trial.
    Russell's reply argues that misusing the grand jury testimony in
    this way was a deliberate attempt to mischaracterize witness
    testimony. Russell neither presents any developed analysis nor
    references any relevant case law to support his claims. We decline
    to address such undeveloped arguments. See Colón v. R.K. Grace &
    Co., 
    358 F.3d 1
    , 5–6 (1st Cir. 2003) ("It is not this court's role
    to assemble a coherent argument for one side merely because
    evidentiary pieces are mentioned somewhere among the factual
    recitations and the topic sentence of the argument is supplied in
    the argument section of the brief.").
    -36-
    the previous evening at "Hollywood Slots."             Russell says this
    testimony amounted to an impermissible reference to gambling.             The
    prosecutor's line of questioning had nothing to do with gambling.
    The questions focused on what Hartmann and Russell discussed at
    dinner, who else was there, what Hartmann and defense counsel
    discussed   the   night   before,    and    other   matters   unrelated    to
    gambling. The other instances in which Russell says the prosecutor
    improperly raised the gambling issue (after the court had told him
    that introducing a gambling issue into the case may be prejudicial)
    occurred outside of the jury's presence -- namely, at side bar
    during the testimony of Russell's first wife, after voir dire of
    his current wife, Henderson, and at the end of the second day of
    trial. Russell points to no other time during which the jury heard
    any testimony by witnesses about Russell's gambling.
    In   sum,   neither   the   prosecutor's   statements   during
    closing arguments nor his questions in eliciting testimony from
    Hartmann necessitate reversal.
    CONCLUSION
    For the aforementioned reasons, we affirm the judgment
    below.
    -37-