Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. v. Azar ( 2020 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 20-1161
    AKEBIA THERAPEUTICS, INC.,
    Plaintiff, Appellant,
    v.
    ALEX MICHAEL AZAR, II, in his official capacity as Secretary of
    Health and Human Services, ET AL.,
    Defendants, Appellees.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
    [Hon. Allison D. Burroughs, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Howard, Chief Judge,
    Selya and Thompson, Circuit Judges.
    Seth P. Waxman, with whom Bruce S. Manheim, Brian M. Boynton,
    Leon T. Kenworthy, Lindsey B. Silver, Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale
    and Dorr LLP, and Nicole R. Hadas, were on brief, for appellant.
    Jennifer B. Dickey, Deputy Associate Attorney General, Civil
    Division, U.S. Department of Justice, with whom Joseph H. Hunt,
    Assistant Attorney General, Andrew E. Lelling, United States
    Attorney, Abby C. Wright and Sarah E. Weiner, Attorneys, Appellate
    Staff, Robert P. Charrow, General Counsel, U.S. Department of
    Health and Human Services, Brenna E. Jenny, Deputy General Counsel,
    Janice L. Hoffman, Associate General Counsel, and Susan Maxson
    Lyons, Deputy Associate General Counsel for Litigation, were on
    brief, for appellees.
    September 30, 2020
    SELYA, Circuit Judge. In the modern world, the financial
    fortunes of a new prescription drug are often determined by how
    that drug is treated for reimbursement purposes by third parties.
    This appeal illustrates the point:                 in the underlying case,
    plaintiff-appellant Akebia Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Akebia), sued a
    quartet of related federal defendants — the Secretary of the
    Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Administrator
    of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and the entities
    that       they   lead1   —   complaining   that   CMS   acted   arbitrarily,
    capriciously, and contrary to law with respect to the reimbursement
    protocol for Akebia's new drug, Auryxia, when prescribed for
    treatment of iron deficiency anemia (IDA) in patients with chronic
    kidney disease (CKD).          Akebia moved for a preliminary injunction,
    but the district court denied the motion. See Akebia Therapeutics,
    Inc. v. Azar, 
    443 F. Supp. 3d 219
    , 222 (D. Mass. 2020).                 After
    careful consideration, we affirm.
    I. BACKGROUND
    The    federal    Medicare    statute   provides   health-care
    coverage for certain segments of the United States population,
    particularly individuals sixty-five years of age or older and
    1
    We note two pertinent data points.     First, both of the
    individual defendants are sued only in their official capacities.
    Second, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services is the body
    within HHS responsible for generating the list of covered drugs
    that is at issue here. For ease in exposition, we refer to the
    defendants collectively as "CMS."
    - 3 -
    individuals with certain disabilities (regardless of age).                    See 42
    U.S.C. § 1395c.             Medicare is divided into several parts, each
    corresponding          to   a   different       dimension    of   the   health-care
    landscape.        This case revolves around Medicare Part D, which
    addresses prescription drug coverage for Medicare beneficiaries.
    See id. §§ 1395w-101 to -104.
    As opposed to other types of Medicare coverage, through
    which the federal government pays health-care providers directly
    in a typical fee-for-service arrangement, Medicare Part D involves
    a contractual relationship with private insurance companies known
    as "sponsors." See id. § 1395w-112. Medicare beneficiaries select
    their preferred sponsor and benefits package and pay a monthly
    premium to the chosen sponsor.                  In turn, the sponsor receives
    reimbursement from the Medicare program for the cost of covered
    drugs.
    As    a    default,   Part     D    requires   sponsors    to   provide
    Medicare beneficiaries access to all covered Part D drugs, subject
    to various exclusions.           See id. § 1395w-111(e)(2)(A); see also id.
    § 1395w-102(a)(1)(A); id. § 1395w-102(b).                   A covered Part D drug
    is a drug dispensed by means of a prescription that the federal
    Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved as safe and
    effective.        See id. § 1395w-102(e)(1)(A).              In enacting Part D,
    Congress specified several categories of drugs that CMS may exclude
    - 4 -
    from coverage.     See id. § 1395w-102(e)(2) (cross-referencing id.
    § 1396r-8(d)(2)).
    The battleground in this case is a category of excluded
    drugs encompassing "[p]rescription vitamins and mineral products,
    except prenatal vitamins and fluoride preparations."            Id. § 1396r-
    8(d)(2)(E).     At the center of the dispute is the scope of this
    category, specifically, whether or not Auryxia, when prescribed
    for treatment of IDA in patients with CKD, constitutes a "mineral
    product" that CMS may properly exclude from coverage.            Though this
    dispute is essentially legal in nature, it lends perspective both
    to sketch the factual underpinnings of Akebia's challenge and to
    rehearse the travel of the case.
    In September of 2014, the FDA approved Auryxia for the
    treatment of hyperphosphatemia (elevated phosphate levels in the
    blood), a condition commonly associated with CKD, for patients who
    are receiving dialysis.      Over three years later (in November of
    2017), the FDA approved Auryxia for a second use:             the treatment
    of IDA in patients with CKD who are not on dialysis.           Akebia, which
    now   owns   Auryxia,2   describes    the   drug   as    a   ferric   citrate
    coordination     complex   that      differs   from      traditional     iron
    supplements in that it facilitates iron transport to the blood
    rather than simply replacing missing iron.              This distinction is
    2  In   December   of   2018,    Akebia   purchased               Keryx
    Biopharmaceuticals, which had developed Auryxia.
    - 5 -
    salient, Akebia insists, because Auryxia can be used to treat
    patients who have sufficient iron stores but have difficulty
    transporting the iron to the blood in order to create red blood
    cells.   Seen in this light, Auryxia offers an alternative to
    intravenous or oral iron supplements in situations in which such
    traditional iron supplements are ineffective for patients who have
    sufficient iron in their bodies but suffer from inadequate iron
    transportation to the blood.
    Although Auryxia initially was covered under Part D for
    both of its permitted uses, CMS e-mailed sponsors in September of
    2018, informing them that CMS had decided to exclude Auryxia from
    coverage when used to treat IDA in patients with CKD who are not
    on dialysis.     CMS's e-mail stated that "[c]onsistent with other
    iron products, ferric citrate was removed" from the list of drugs
    covered under Part D.    Following this guidance, Medicare sponsors
    thereafter refused to cover Auryxia when prescribed to treat IDA.
    Inheriting the existing state of Medicare coverage in
    December of 2018, see supra note 2, Akebia made repeated efforts
    to extract information from CMS about the coverage determination
    and to persuade CMS to revisit it. These efforts included outreach
    to CMS, in-person meetings with CMS officials, and a formal legal
    memorandum submitted to both HHS's General Counsel and CMS's Chief
    Legal Officer.    Akebia's campaign proved unavailing:   on October
    - 6 -
    4, 2019, CMS affirmed its coverage determination, making clear
    that it would not revisit its position.
    Within a matter of weeks, Akebia repaired to the federal
    district court.    Its complaint alleged that CMS, in denying full
    Part D coverage of Auryxia, violated the relevant portions of the
    Medicare statute by improperly classifying Auryxia as a mineral
    product and excluding it from coverage.         The complaint prayed that
    the district court set aside CMS's coverage determination as
    unlawful under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), see 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2)(A), and restore full coverage for Auryxia.                   Shortly
    thereafter, Akebia moved for a preliminary injunction, seeking to
    press    "pause"   on   the     coverage     determination    until     CMS's
    interpretation could be fully litigated.              Among other things,
    Akebia claimed that it was likely to succeed on the merits of its
    suit because CMS's interpretation of the Medicare statute was
    antithetic to the statutory text; because CMS had acted arbitrarily
    and     capriciously    by     covering     Auryxia   for    treatment    of
    hyperphosphatemia but excluding it for treatment of IDA; and
    because CMS had compounded its arbitrary and capricious actions by
    reaching a coverage determination at odds with past CMS decisions.
    Following a hearing, the district court reserved decision and
    subsequently issued a thoughtful rescript in which it concluded
    that Akebia had failed to show a likelihood of success on the
    merits of its claims.        See Akebia, 443 F. Supp. 3d at 222.       After
    - 7 -
    making   findings    with    respect     to    the    other   elements   of   the
    preliminary injunction calculus, see id. at 230-231, it denied
    Akebia's motion for preliminary injunctive relief, see id. at 231.
    This interlocutory appeal ensued.             See 
    28 U.S.C. § 1292
    (a).
    II. ANALYSIS
    Our analysis proceeds in three segments.                 As an hors
    d'oeuvre, we start with CMS's contention that this matter is not
    justiciable.     Next, we proceed to the appetizer and limn the
    standard   of   review      associated    with       preliminary   injunctions.
    Finally, we turn to the main course:             Akebia's asseveration that
    the district court abused its discretion in refusing to grant a
    preliminary injunction.
    A.   Justiciability.
    In this venue, as in the court below, CMS argues that
    the dispute between the parties is not fit for judicial review.
    This argument rests on two pillars.             First, CMS says that Akebia
    did not properly channel its grievances through the agency's
    internal appeals processes.        See 42 U.S.C. § 1395ii (incorporating
    id. § 405(h)).      Second, CMS says that its coverage determination
    e-mail does not constitute final agency action and, thus, is not
    ripe for judicial review under the APA.              See 
    5 U.S.C. § 704
    .
    With respect to the first of these claims, CMS posits
    that Akebia has flouted the internal appeals process by attempting
    an end run around the Medicare Appeals Council (through which all
    - 8 -
    coverage disputes arising under the Medicare statute must be
    channeled).       See Shalala v. Illinois Council on Long Term Care,
    Inc., 
    529 U.S. 1
    , 13 (2000).             In response, Akebia brands this
    review    process     as   inapposite,   complaining       that   only   Medicare
    beneficiaries — not drug manufacturers — have standing to bring
    administrative appeals to the Medicare Appeals Council.                     See 42
    U.S.C. § 1395w-104(h)(1).        So, Akebia's thesis runs, it should be
    excused from compliance with the existing review structure because
    that structure affords "no review at all" for its grievances.
    Shalala, 
    529 U.S. at 17
    .
    Akebia's response strikes a nerve:           CMS concedes that
    there     is     no   intra-agency       mechanism     through      which     drug
    manufacturers may challenge coverage determinations for Medicare
    Part D.    But CMS suggests that this is Akebia's tough luck, and
    CMS would leave Akebia high and dry, forcing Akebia to rely on
    individual      beneficiaries    to   challenge      the   contested     coverage
    determination to Akebia's behoof.
    With respect to its second nonjusticiability claim, CMS
    suggests that the September 2018 e-mail (which contained the
    adverse coverage determination) was merely guidance to Medicare
    sponsors and, thus, not final agency action. Since a "final agency
    action" is a prerequisite to judicial review under the APA, 
    5 U.S.C. § 704
    , CMS submits that a reviewable Part D coverage
    determination may only be made by the Medicare Appeals Council.
    - 9 -
    Akebia demurs.          The September 2018 e-mail, it says,
    satisfies the requirements for final agency action because it is
    a decision that marks the consummation of CMS's decisionmaking
    process (rather than a tentative decision) and is plainly a
    decision from which legal consequences flow. See Bennett v. Spear,
    
    520 U.S. 154
    , 177-178 (1997).         In this regard, Akebia notes both
    the apparent finality of CMS's coverage determination and the fact
    (which CMS does not deny) that Medicare sponsors are now expected
    to comply with this determination.
    In appellate review, as in life, discretion is sometimes
    the   better   part   of   valor.      The    parties'   arguments   weave   a
    jurisdictional riddle, which is both intricate and difficult to
    resolve.   We are, however, steadfast in our belief that "courts
    should not rush to decide unsettled issues when the exigencies of
    a   particular   case   do   not    require   such   definitive   measures."
    Privitera v. Curran (In re Curran), 
    855 F.3d 19
    , 22 (1st Cir.
    2017).   So it is here.
    To decide this appeal, it is not necessary for us to
    determine either whether Akebia has exhausted its intra-agency
    remedies or whether the CMS e-mail constituted final agency action.
    Although hypothetical jurisdiction is generally disfavored, see
    Steel Co. v. Citizens for a Better Env't, 
    523 U.S. 83
    , 94-95
    (1998), such a barrier is insurmountable only when Article III
    jurisdiction is in issue, see First State Ins. Co. v. Nat'l Cas.
    - 10 -
    Co., 
    781 F.3d 7
    , 10 n.2 (1st Cir. 2015).                      The justiciability
    questions that CMS poses relate only to our statutory jurisdiction,
    not   our    Article    III      jurisdiction       (which   is     not    in   doubt).
    Precedent teaches that where, as here, an appeal presents a
    question of statutory jurisdiction, that question need not be
    resolved     if   a   decision       on   the   merits   will     favor     the   party
    challenging the court's jurisdiction.                See Caribbean Mgmt. Grp. v.
    Erikon LLC, 
    966 F.3d 35
    , 41 (1st Cir. 2020); First State, 781 F.3d
    at 10.     Because this is such a case, we (like the court below, see
    Akebia, 443 F. Supp. 3d at 225), bypass the jurisdictional issue
    and   go    directly   to     the    parties'      dueling   over    the    denial   of
    preliminary injunctive relief.
    B.      Standard of Review.
    When evaluating the denial of a preliminary injunction,
    our review is for abuse of discretion. See Ross-Simons of Warwick,
    Inc. v. Baccarat, Inc., 
    102 F.3d 12
    , 16 (1st Cir. 1996).                             We
    caution, though, that the abuse of discretion standard is not
    monolithic:       under this rubric, we review the district court's
    answers to legal questions de novo, factual findings for clear
    error, and judgment calls with some deference to the district
    court's exercise of its discretion.                  See Corp. Techs., Inc. v.
    Harnett, 
    731 F.3d 6
    , 10 (1st Cir. 2013).
    The framework for considering whether to grant or deny
    a preliminary injunction, properly enunciated by the court below,
    - 11 -
    has four elements.    An inquiring court must gauge the movant's
    likelihood of success on the merits; must evaluate whether and to
    what extent the movant will suffer irreparable harm if injunctive
    relief is withheld; must calibrate the balance of hardships as
    between the parties; and must consider the effect, if any, that
    the issuance of an injunction (or the withholding of one) will
    have on the public interest.      See Corp. Techs., 731 F.3d at 9;
    Ross-Simons, 102 F.3d at 15.      In the precincts patrolled by the
    abuse of discretion standard, appellate review is respectful to
    the district court's weighing of these elements but falls well
    short of giving carte blanche to the district court's views.    See
    Corp. Techs., 731 F.3d at 10.
    We hasten to add that these four elements are not of
    equal prominence in the preliminary injunction calculus.    The most
    important is whether the movant has demonstrated a likelihood of
    success on the merits — an element that we have described as the
    "sine qua non" of the preliminary injunction inquiry.       Ryan v.
    ICE, __ F.3d __, __ (1st Cir. 2020) [No. 19-1838, slip op. at 11]
    (quoting New Comm Wireless Servs., Inc. v. SprintCom, Inc., 
    287 F.3d 1
    , 9 (1st Cir. 2002)).     If the movant fails to demonstrate a
    likelihood of success on the merits, the remaining elements are of
    little consequence.   See 
    id.
    Given the primacy of the likelihood-of-success element,
    that element forms the logical starting point for our analysis.
    - 12 -
    In this instance, the likelihood of Akebia's success depends
    largely on the force of its legal challenge to CMS's interpretation
    of the Medicare statute.            Because we review the district court's
    answers to legal questions de novo, see Corp. Techs., 731 F.3d at
    10, we find ourselves in essentially the same position as the
    district court with respect to this question. Thus, we effectively
    review CMS's interpretation of the Medicare statute through the
    lens of the standard articulated in the APA.3               See Mass. ex rel.
    Div. of Marine Fisheries v. Daley, 
    170 F.3d 23
    , 28 (1st Cir. 1999).
    Under that standard, we will depart from the agency's conclusion
    only       if   its    coverage   determination   proves   to   be    "arbitrary,
    capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance
    with law."        
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2)(A); see Doe v. Leavitt, 
    552 F.3d 75
    ,
    78 (1st Cir. 2009).
    C.   The Preliminary Injunction Inquiry.
    Our construction of the preliminary injunction framework
    (see supra Part (II)(B)) makes pellucid that the sine qua non of
    a preliminary injunction is the movant's ability to show that it
    is likely to succeed on the merits of its claims.                    In examining
    3
    Although review of administrative decisions under the APA
    often involves some degree of deference, see, e.g., Encino
    Motorcars, LLC v. Navarro, 
    136 S. Ct. 2117
    , 2124 (2016); Chevron
    U.S.A. Inc. v. NRDC, 
    467 U.S. 837
    , 844 (1984), this case falls
    outside the mine-run. Neither side has argued that CMS's September
    2018 e-mail, which informed Medicare sponsors of its coverage
    determination regarding Auryxia, is entitled to any interpretive
    deference. We therefore afford it none.
    - 13 -
    the district court's denial of Akebia's motion for a preliminary
    injunction, we begin — and end — there.
    As    we   already   have   indicated,       Akebia's   success   or
    failure in this case turns principally on the soundness of CMS's
    interpretation of a statutory exclusion from Medicare Part D drug
    coverage.    Consequently, our inquiry into the district court's
    holding that Akebia had failed to demonstrate a likelihood of
    success must commence with the relevant portion of the statutory
    text:
    The following drugs or classes of drugs, or
    their medical uses, may be excluded from
    coverage or otherwise restricted . . .
    (E)   Prescription    vitamins  and    mineral
    products,   except   prenatal  vitamins    and
    fluoride preparations.
    42 U.S.C. §§ 1396r-8(d)(2)–(d)(2)(E).               The threshold question
    involves whether Auryxia, when used to treat IDA in patients with
    CKD, is a "mineral product" within the purview of the statute and,
    thus, can be excluded from coverage under Part D.
    In addressing this threshold question, we write on a
    pristine page. For aught that appears, this question is a question
    of first impression in the federal courts (except, of course, for
    the district court's decision), and CMS concedes that it has not
    formally promulgated a definition of "mineral products."              Although
    we tackle this issue of statutory interpretation head on, we
    construe    the    statutory     language    only   to    determine   Akebia's
    - 14 -
    likelihood of success on the merits.                    We do not purpose to resolve
    the    issue        definitively.          See    Ross-Simons,     102     F.3d   at    16
    (explaining         that,     at   preliminary      injunction     stage,     court    of
    appeals         "need   not   conclusively        determine     the   merits      of   the
    underlying claims"); Narragansett Indian Tribe v. Guilbert, 
    934 F.2d 4
    ,   6   (1st    Cir.   1991)     (cautioning      that,   at   preliminary
    injunction stage, decisions "are to be understood as statements of
    probable outcomes" only).
    Akebia chiefly contends that the word "mineral" must
    denote a substance that is naturally occurring and inorganic
    (devoid of carbon).4             Relying on various dictionary definitions to
    this       effect,      Akebia     insists       that    because   Auryxia's      active
    ingredient (ferric citrate) is man-made and not inorganic, Auryxia
    cannot come within the mineral products exclusion.                         CMS replies
    that the touchstone of the analysis is the total phrase "mineral
    products," which is necessarily inclusive of products that are
    manufactured for sale or are otherwise anthropogenic.
    4
    For present purposes, we accept arguendo Akebia's proffered
    definition of the word "mineral," standing alone, as something
    "naturally occurring and inorganic." We note, though, that despite
    Akebia's litany of dictionary definitions, its proffered
    definition is not inevitable. The Supreme Court has warned that
    because the word "mineral" is used in many disparate contexts,
    dictionary definitions should generally be disfavored. See Watt
    v. W. Nuclear, Inc., 
    462 U.S. 36
    , 42-43 (1983).       Against this
    backdrop, we are not prepared to discount entirely CMS's argument
    that Congress probably did not intend that "mineral," as used in
    the Medicare statute, should encompass all dictionary-captured
    coal, stone, or other earthly materials.
    - 15 -
    The court below found Akebia's definition of "mineral
    products" too narrow, ruling instead that Congress intended for
    "mineral products" to encapsulate man-made substances in addition
    to those found in the natural world.           See Akebia, 443 F. Supp. 3d
    at 226.    On this basis, the court concluded that CMS's decision to
    exclude Auryxia from coverage when used to treat IDA was not
    contrary to law.    Id.      We agree.
    The text of the statute authorizes the exclusion of
    "mineral    products"   not    just    "minerals."    To   accept   Akebia's
    isthmian definition, limited to just the word "mineral," would
    require us to ignore a critical aspect of the exclusion category:
    the word "products."      Whenever feasible, courts ought to interpret
    statutory language in ways that avoid rendering specific words or
    phrases superfluous.      See Gustafson v. Alloyd Co., 
    513 U.S. 561
    ,
    574 (1995); United States v. Walker, 
    665 F.3d 212
    , 225 (1st Cir.
    2011). This principle has obvious relevance here: Congress easily
    could have used the word "mineral" alone, but instead chose to use
    the broader term "mineral products."            The addition of the word
    "products" implies some kind of human modification to the mineral
    itself.    See, e.g., Webster's Third New International Dictionary
    (1961) (defining "product" as "something produced by physical
    labor or intellectual effort; the result of work or thought");
    Black's Law Dictionary (9th ed. 2009) (defining "product" as
    "[s]omething    that    is    distributed      commercially   for   use   or
    - 16 -
    consumption and that is usu[ally] (1) tangible personal property,
    (2) the result of fabrication or processing, and (3) an item that
    has passed through a chain of commercial distribution before
    ultimate use or consumption.").              If the statute only authorized
    CMS   to    exclude    naturally      occurring,   inorganic     substances      (as
    Akebia     suggests),    the    word    "products"      would   serve    no   useful
    purpose.
    In addition, the text of the statute as a whole strongly
    supports      CMS's    more    expansive     interpretation.         The      statute
    authorizes the exclusion of "[p]rescription vitamins and mineral
    products, except prenatal vitamins and fluoride preparations."                    42
    U.S.C. § 1396r-8(d)(2)(E).              The fact that Congress explicitly
    exempted "fluoride preparations" elucidates the breadth of the
    mineral products exclusion.            While fluoride itself is a naturally
    occurring substance that fits Akebia's proposed definition of
    "mineral," "fluoride preparation" necessarily denotes some kind of
    man-made process altering fluoride, the raw material.                   It follows,
    we    think,    that     but    for    the    explicit     exemption,      fluoride
    preparations — which themselves are not naturally occurring — would
    have been covered under the mineral products exclusion.                          And
    although we need not speculate as to why Congress decided to save
    fluoride preparations specifically from exclusion, that decision
    makes      manifest    that    the    term   "mineral    products"      encompasses
    - 17 -
    manufactured products, like Auryxia, and not solely naturally
    occurring substances.
    Akebia struggles mightily to parry this thrust.              It says
    that the presence of "fluoride preparations" in the statute does
    not undermine its interpretation of "mineral products" because
    fluoride itself is a naturally occurring substance.               In contrast,
    the active ingredient in Auryxia is, in Akebia's parlance, a "novel
    organic compound."      The mere presence of a manufacturing process,
    Akebia muses, does not itself make something a mineral product,
    given that the active ingredient in Auryxia is not a mineral.
    We are not moved by this proposed distinction.               In our
    view,   Congress's    inclusion   of   "fluoride     preparations"      in   the
    statute strikes at the heart of Akebia's contention that only
    naturally occurring substances can be properly excluded under the
    statute.     Fluoride    preparations    are   not    naturally      occurring
    substances, and the fact that Congress saved them from exclusion
    indicates to us that the mineral products exclusion necessarily
    encompasses non-naturally occurring substances.             Any other reading
    elevates hope over reason.
    Relatedly,    Akebia   argues   that      even    if   the   mineral
    products exclusion covers certain man-made substances, a drug can
    be a mineral product and therefore eligible for exclusion only if
    its active ingredient is naturally occurring and inorganic, that
    is, a mineral.       Because Auryxia's active ingredient is a "novel
    - 18 -
    organic      compound"    that     is     "synthetically       produced,"         Akebia
    submits, it falls outside the compass of the exclusion.                               In
    support, Akebia tries to use CMS's words against it, noting that
    in   its   opposition     to     the    preliminary       injunction       motion,    CMS
    represented        that   the     term     "mineral       products"        includes     a
    manufactured       product      that    contains     a    mineral     as    an    active
    ingredient.5
    To be sure, we agree with Akebia's premise:                   parties may
    be   bound    by   statements      made    in     court    filings.        See,    e.g.,
    Harrington v. City of Nashua, 
    610 F.3d 24
    , 31 (1st Cir. 2010)
    (noting that such admissions must be "clear" in order to be
    binding); Schott Motorcycle Supply, Inc. v. Am. Honda Motor Co.,
    
    976 F.2d 58
    , 61 (1st Cir. 1992) (holding party bound by "clear and
    express statement" in its original and amended complaints).                            We
    disagree, however, with the conclusion that Akebia would have us
    draw in this case.
    First and foremost, we do not read the statement as
    undercutting the position that CMS has taken.                  And even assuming,
    for argument's sake, that the active ingredient in Auryxia is a
    synthetically produced, organic compound that is not a mineral,
    5 CMS's actual language is more ambiguous than Akebia
    suggests.    CMS's opposition stated that the mineral products
    exclusion "reasonably includes manufactured items containing a
    mineral as an active ingredient" even when the product is man-
    made.
    - 19 -
    the presence of such an active ingredient would not negate the
    fact that iron sits at the core of the drug's raison d'être.            More
    importantly, Akebia's insistence that the active ingredient itself
    must be a mineral ignores the centrality of the word "products" in
    both   the   statutory    language   and   in   the   excerpt   from   CMS's
    opposition to the preliminary injunction motion.             As we already
    have   explained,   Congress   clearly     intended    the   term   "mineral
    products" to encompass synthetic substances in addition to those
    found in nature.         In context, then, Akebia's insistence that
    Auryxia cannot be a "mineral product" because its active ingredient
    is not a mineral is nothing short of magical thinking. The statute
    simply does not provide that the presence of a synthetic active
    ingredient, in and of itself, renders something not a mineral
    product and prohibits CMS from deploying the mineral products
    exclusion.
    Akebia resists this conclusion, suggesting that it would
    result in an endless list of excluded drugs because any drug that
    contained even a smidgen of mineral could be excluded.           But Akebia
    is whistling past the graveyard. CMS has not taken an interpretive
    stance that even remotely threatens so extreme an outcome.              Its
    position is much more circumscribed:        it will exclude such a drug
    only if it is used to treat a mineral deficiency.            Although we do
    not purpose to resolve this interpretative question definitively
    at the preliminary injunction stage, see Ross-Simons, 102 F.3d at
    - 20 -
    16, we find that Akebia has not demonstrated a likelihood of
    success on its claim that CMS's interpretation of the mineral
    products exclusion is arbitrary, capricious, or otherwise contrary
    to law.    See Leavitt, 
    552 F.3d at 78
    .
    Ably   represented,   Akebia    looses    a    barrage     of    other
    arguments. To begin, it observes that the FDA has approved Auryxia
    to treat two conditions associated with CKD:               hyperphosphatemia
    and IDA. With respect to Part D coverage, though, CMS has excluded
    Auryxia only when used to treat IDA.          From this medley of facts,
    Akebia argues that covering Auryxia for one use but excluding it
    for the other is arbitrary and capricious.                 Embedded in this
    argument are two distinct but imbricated propositions.                      First,
    Akebia submits that the statutory language does not support any
    use-based distinctions at all.        Second, it submits that even if
    some use-based distinctions are permissible, Auryxia does not
    actually treat a "mineral deficiency" that would fit within the
    Agency's   use-based     paradigm.    We    examine       these    propositions
    separately.
    Whether the Medicare statute authorizes CMS to exclude
    from coverage certain uses of a drug but not others is a question
    of law that we review de novo.       See Corp. Techs., 731 F.3d at 10.
    Here, the introductory language to the relevant statutory section
    provides that "[t]he following drugs or classes of drugs, or their
    medical    uses,   may   be   excluded     from   coverage        or   otherwise
    - 21 -
    restricted."    42 U.S.C. § 1396r-8(d)(2).     The exclusion categories
    (including the mineral products exclusion) are then enumerated.
    Some of the exclusion categories list broad classes of drugs, such
    as "[p]rescription vitamins and mineral products."           Id. § 1396r-
    8(d)(2)(E).     Other exclusion categories focus specifically on
    particular uses that may be excluded, such as "[a]gents when used
    for cosmetic purposes or hair growth."        Id. § 1396r-8(d)(2)(C).
    If   a   statute's   plain   meaning   supplies   a   plausible
    interpretation, then that interpretation ordinarily wins the day.
    See United States v. Gordon, 
    875 F.3d 26
    , 33 (1st Cir. 2017).           In
    this instance, Congress spelled out the powers that it conferred
    upon CMS quite clearly:         CMS may exclude from coverage "[t]he
    following drugs or classes of drugs, or their medical uses."            42
    U.S.C. § 1396r-8(d)(2) (emphasis supplied).        By excluding Auryxia
    (a mineral product, see text supra) from coverage only for a
    particular medical use, CMS took exactly the sort of action that
    Congress authorized it to take.         In other words, CMS acted well
    within the encincture of the discretion afforded to it by the
    statute.
    Akebia's    contrary   argument,    which   posits    that   the
    mineral products exclusion only authorizes the Agency to exclude
    mineral products in their entirety, is unconvincing. This argument
    suggests that because some exclusion categories begin with the
    phrase "[a]gents when used for," drugs in all other exclusion
    - 22 -
    categories may only be excluded based on their composition, not
    their medical uses.   Such a suggestion, though, is not only belied
    by the plain language of the statute but also would render the
    statutory phrase "or their medical uses" nugatory.       That sort of
    construction is to be avoided.      See Gustafson, 
    513 U.S. at 574
    ;
    see also Walker, 
    665 F.3d at 225
    .
    Here,   moreover,   if   the   entire   universe   of   CMS's
    exclusion options were listed alongside the exclusion categories
    themselves, there would have been no earthly reason for Congress
    to have included the phrase "or their medical uses" in the statute.
    Put another way, if Akebia's interpretation prevailed, the words
    "or their medical uses" could be deleted and the statute's meaning
    would be unchanged.   Like the district court, see Akebia, 443 F.
    Supp. 3d at 230, we refuse to place our imprimatur on so fanciful
    an exercise in statutory interpretation.
    Nor does the fact that certain exclusion categories
    begin with "[a]gents when used for" alter our conclusion.           As
    employed in the statute, nothing about that phrase implies that
    other categories may only be excluded in an all-or-nothing manner,
    premised on chemical composition.        It is both plausible and
    consistent with the statutory text to conclude — as we do — that
    Congress wished to provide CMS with somewhat limited authority to
    exclude drugs in certain categories while allowing CMS wider
    latitude with respect to other categories.
    - 23 -
    To say more about this line of argument would be to paint
    the lily.    We conclude, without serious question, that the plain
    language of the statute authorizes use-based distinctions for Part
    D coverage determinations.       We also conclude that the use-based
    distinction that CMS has made regarding Auryxia comes under the
    umbrella of this authority.      Akebia's contrary claims, therefore,
    cannot undergird a showing of likelihood of success on the merits.
    This brings us to Akebia's claim that even if use-based
    distinctions are permissible under the statute, Auryxia does not
    come within the contours of the excludable medical use that CMS
    articulated before the district court.        In its opposition to the
    preliminary injunction motion, CMS asserted that the excludable
    use for mineral products is for "manufactured products prescribed
    for conditions arising from a mineral deficiency."              It also
    asserted    that   this   interpretation    was   consistent   with    its
    September   2018   e-mail   to   Medicare   sponsors.   Building      on   a
    foundation constructed out of these assertions, Akebia notes that
    Auryxia is often prescribed to patients that have functional iron
    deficiency — a condition in which patients have sufficient iron
    stores in their bodies but have difficulty using that iron to
    create red blood cells.
    As Akebia sees it, functional iron deficiency contrasts
    with absolute iron deficiency (a condition in which the body simply
    does not have enough iron).        Auryxia effectively helps patients
    - 24 -
    with functional iron deficiency transport the iron they already
    have to the correct place (by making the iron more soluble) so
    that the body can create red blood cells; it does not replace the
    iron altogether. This unique feature of Auryxia, Akebia maintains,
    means that Auryxia does not treat an iron deficiency but, rather,
    treats an iron transport problem.
    Akebia tells us that this distinction is of decretory
    significance because Auryxia is often prescribed to patients with
    functional iron deficiency — patients who do not respond well to
    traditional iron supplements because they have all the iron they
    need.   Understood in this way, Auryxia does not treat an iron
    deficiency but treats an iron transport problem and, thus, cannot
    (Akebia says) be excluded under the statute.             To support this
    understanding, Akebia relies on statements from a variety of
    medical and scientific professionals.
    We do not gainsay that this technical distinction is
    significant.    For instance, it quite probably played a meaningful
    role in Auryxia's patent applications.          But it does not tell the
    whole story:     other factors swing the interpretive pendulum back
    in CMS's favor.       The most prominent of these factors is that
    Auryxia is prescribed to treat IDA.         IDA is a diagnosis indicating
    that the body lacks the iron required for normal physiological
    processes,    even   if   the   individual    has   adequate   iron   stores
    elsewhere in the body.
    - 25 -
    There is more.              Notwithstanding Akebia's efforts to
    differentiate Auryxia from traditional intravenous and oral iron
    supplements by focusing on the part that Auryxia plays in iron
    transport, the label required by the FDA describes Auryxia as an
    "iron replacement product" — a term that clearly implies that
    something is being replaced.                 This implication goes hand in hand
    with   the        notion   that      —       in     contrast     to   treatment       for
    hyperphosphatemia, in which Auryxia is used like a paper towel to
    soak   up   excess     phosphates        —    the    principal    objective      in   IDA
    treatment is to facilitate iron absorption, with an eye toward
    ameliorating       otherwise      deficient         iron   levels     in   the   blood.
    Auryxia's underlying patent filings focus on the solubility of the
    compound, buttressing the idea that the goal is to restore (or at
    least improve) the patient's iron levels.
    At    bottom,     the   parties         are   arguing     about     whether
    Auryxia, when prescribed for patients who have trouble using stored
    iron to create red blood cells, should be regarded as treating a
    mineral deficiency. This is a close question, but it is a question
    of fact.     The district court treated it as such and found that
    Auryxia, when prescribed to patients with IDA, is a mineral product
    - 26 -
    used to treat an iron deficiency.6   See Akebia, 443 F. Supp. 3d at
    229.
    Under the abuse of discretion standard, we review such
    factual findings only for clear error.   See Corp. Techs., 731 F.3d
    at 10.     The particular factual finding under review results from
    a plausible view of the evidence and is not clearly erroneous.
    The FDA's characterization of Auryxia as an iron replacement
    product and the fact that Auryxia is prescribed to treat IDA both
    lend credence to the district court's conclusion.   See Cumpiano v.
    Banco Santander P.R., 
    902 F.2d 148
    , 152 (1st Cir. 1990) (explaining
    that, on clear error review, we "ought not to upset findings of
    fact or conclusions drawn therefrom unless, on the whole of the
    record, we form a strong, unyielding belief that a mistake has
    been made.") (citing, inter alia, United States v. U.S. Gypsum
    Co., 
    333 U.S. 364
    , 395 (1948)); cf. 
    id.
     ("Where there are two
    permissible views of the evidence, the factfinder's choice between
    them cannot be clearly erroneous.") (quoting Anderson v. City of
    Bessemer City, 
    470 U.S. 564
    , 574 (1985)).      It follows that, at
    this stage of the litigation, Akebia's claim of error fails.
    Akebia makes a last-ditch effort to bell the cat.    It
    contends that CMS's decision to exclude Auryxia from Part D
    6
    We recognize that, at the preliminary injunction stage, this
    finding is merely a predicted outcome, subject to reexamination at
    a trial on the merits. See Ross-Simons, 102 F.3d at 16.
    - 27 -
    coverage    for    some    uses    but    not   for    others   is   arbitrary    and
    capricious      because     that    decision      is   inconsistent    with   CMS's
    treatment of analogous drugs.             To support this contention, Akebia
    points    to    CMS's     prior    decisions      concerning    several   non-iron
    products, including vitamin D products and electrolytes.
    The fatal flaw in this contention is that it rests on a
    claim that CMS cannot make coverage determinations based on use —
    a claim that we already have rejected.                 See text supra.    Given our
    acknowledgment of CMS's authority to employ a use-based approach,
    little more need be said.           We add only that, in this context, the
    usual    reason    for    finding    an    agency's      decision    arbitrary    and
    capricious is the existence of "a deviation from its own prior
    precedents without sufficient explanation or reasoning."                         Good
    Samaritan Med. Ctr. v. NLRB, 
    858 F.3d 617
    , 629 (1st Cir. 2017).
    To succeed on such a claim, Akebia would need to demonstrate that
    CMS departed from either norms previously established or its
    customary decisional rules when it decided to exclude Auryxia from
    coverage.      See Int'l Jr. Coll. of Bus. and Tech., Inc. v. Duncan,
    
    802 F.3d 99
    , 112-113 (1st Cir. 2015); Shaw's Supermarkets, Inc. v.
    NLRB, 
    884 F.2d 34
    , 36-37 (1st Cir. 1989).                 Here, however, CMS did
    not deviate in any meaningful way from its own prior coverage
    determinations:         its use-based approach to Auryxia is consistent
    not only with its treatment of other iron replacement products but
    - 28 -
    also with its treatment of the other products that Akebia mentions.
    We explain briefly.
    To begin, Akebia's argumentation is under-inclusive.       In
    alleging   that   CMS   acted   inconsistently,   Akebia's   comparisons
    conspicuously omit any serious discussion of CMS's classification
    of other drugs used for the treatment of iron deficiency.           Iron
    supplements are Auryxia's closest analog, and CMS has regularly
    excluded from coverage under Part D other iron products used to
    treat IDA.   See Akebia, 443 F. Supp. 3d at 227.       Intravenous and
    injectable iron drugs containing synthetic substances (such as
    iron dextran, iron sucrose, and sodium ferric gluconate) are
    uniformly excluded from Part D coverage when used to treat IDA.
    So, too, polysaccharide iron complex, an orally-ingested iron
    replacement product, is excluded from Part D coverage.
    Apparently aware that it cannot win this battle, Akebia
    seeks to make other (and less appropriate) comparisons.         To this
    end, it attempts to contrast CMS's decision regarding Auryxia with
    CMS's coverage determinations for vitamin D products, synthetic
    compounds combined with citric acid such as lithium salts, niacin-
    based products, and electrolytes.      These comparisons, though, are
    flying under a false flag.       The fundamental takeaway from CMS's
    prior coverage decisions regarding the products singled out by
    Akebia is that each decision was predicated on the use of the
    particular product.     Some examples suffice to make the point:
    - 29 -
       CMS decided to exclude certain vitamin D products,
    known   as    "nutritional      vitamin     D,"   from     Part   D
    coverage because such products directly treat a
    vitamin D deficiency.         On the contrary, CMS decided
    to   cover      other     vitamin     D     products,        known
    generically as "active vitamin D," under Part D
    because       they      treat    hyperparathyroidism              by
    inhibiting the parathyroid glands' secretion of
    certain hormones.        Nothing about these decisions is
    inconsistent with CMS's treatment of Auryxia.
       CMS decided to cover niacin-based products, which
    contain vitamin B3 for treatment of dyslipidemia
    (abnormal lipid counts in the blood) rather than
    for treatment of vitamin B3 deficiency.                    Nothing
    about this decision is inconsistent with CMS's
    treatment of Auryxia.
       CMS decided to cover products composed of synthetic
    mineral      compounds    combined     with       citric    acid,
    including     lithium     salts,     when     used    to    treat
    conditions other than mineral deficiencies (such as
    psychiatric      disorders).         Nothing       about     this
    decision is inconsistent with CMS's treatment of
    Auryxia.
    - 30 -
       CMS decided to cover certain electrolytes under
    Part D, even when used as replacement products (but
    only when used to replace electrolytes, not non-
    electrolyte    minerals).      To   the    extent    that   a
    product has both electrolyte and non-electrolyte
    mineral components, the product is not covered if
    used   to   replace    the   non-electrolyte        mineral.7
    Nothing about this decision is inconsistent with
    CMS's treatment of Auryxia.
    Over   and    above   these   examples,    we    offer   one   last
    observation. As a general matter, the vitamin and mineral products
    category is broad enough that it would be odd to require CMS to
    treat all products that potentially fall within it exactly the
    same.    The text of the statute gives us no reason to think that
    Congress intended to impose so curious a regime. See, e.g., Shaw's
    Supermarkets, 
    884 F.2d at 41
     (holding that agencies need not
    "microscopically examin[e] prior cases" and that prior cases are
    not "straitjacket[s], inhibiting experimentation or change").
    7 Akebia argues that because electrolytes are a subset of
    minerals, CMS cannot legitimately cover electrolyte but not
    mineral replacement products. At this moment, however, challenges
    to CMS's coverage decisions regarding electrolytes are not before
    us. The key query is whether CMS's decision regarding Auryxia was
    a significant departure from its prior coverage determinations,
    see Shaw's Supermarkets, 
    884 F.2d at 36
    ; and at this stage, we
    agree with the district court that it was not, see Akebia, 443 F.
    Supp. 3d at 229.
    - 31 -
    That ends this aspect of the matter.                 Although an agency
    must be sufficiently consistent in its decisionmaking to avoid
    arbitrary and capricious outcomes, it need not always be precise
    to the point of pedantry.            See Davila-Bardales v. INS, 
    27 F.3d 1
    ,
    5 (1st Cir. 1994) (recognizing that "agencies retain a substantial
    measure of freedom to refine, reformulate, and even reverse their
    precedents      in     the      light    of         new    insights      and     changed
    circumstances").          The    basic       rule    is    that   an    agency    cannot
    significantly        depart     from    its       own     prior   precedent      without
    adequately explaining its rationale.                 See Shaw's Supermarkets, 
    884 F.2d at 36
    .     There was no such departure here:                 the record reflects
    that CMS acted in reasonable conformity with its past decisions
    regarding analogous products.            Because CMS treated its coverage of
    Auryxia   consistently        with     its    past      decisions      concerning   iron
    products and other drugs falling under the vitamins and mineral
    products exclusion, the district court did not abuse its discretion
    in holding that CMS's treatment of Auryxia was neither arbitrary
    nor capricious.
    III. CONCLUSION
    We need go no further.                 Inasmuch as we find neither
    cognizable error nor abuse of discretion in the district court's
    holding that Akebia failed to carry its burden of showing that it
    is likely to succeed on the merits of its claims, we need not
    address   the     other       elements       of     the     preliminary     injunction
    - 32 -
    framework.   See Wine & Spirits Retailers, Inc. v. Rhode Island,
    
    418 F.3d 36
    , 54 (1st Cir. 2005).      After all, we have made it
    luminously clear that likelihood of success is the "sine qua non"
    of the preliminary injunction inquiry.   Ryan, __ F.3d at __ [slip
    op. at 11] (quoting New Comm Wireless Servs., 287 F.3d at 9).
    Affirmed.
    - 33 -