Maine Education Ass'n Benefits Trust v. Cioppa ( 2012 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 12-1199
    THE MAINE EDUCATION ASSOCIATION BENEFITS TRUST,
    and ROGER YOUNG, SUSAN GRONDIN, SALLY PLOURDE,
    MARY KAY DYER, CHRIS GALGAY, KELLY LITTLEFIELD, LOIS
    KILBY-CHESLEY, DARRELL KING, and DENNIS TOWLE, in their
    capacities as trustees of the Maine Education Association
    Benefits Trust,
    Plaintiffs, Appellants,
    v.
    ERIC CIOPPA, in his official capacity as Superintendent
    of Insurance of the State of Maine,
    and
    MAINE SCHOOL ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICT 60; AUGUSTA
    SCHOOL DEPARTMENT; MAINE SCHOOL BOARD ASSOCIATION;
    BANGOR SCHOOL DEPARTMENT; REGIONAL SCHOOL UNIT 23,
    Defendants, Appellees.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MAINE
    [Hon. George Z. Singal, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Lynch, Chief Judge,
    Lipez and Howard, Circuit Judges.
    Christopher C. Taintor, with whom Norman, Hanson & DeTroy
    LLC was on brief, for appellants.
    Jonathan R. Bolton, Assistant Attorney General, with whom
    William J. Schneider, Attorney General, Andrew L. Black and
    Thomas A. Knowlton were on brief, for appellees.
    September 24, 2012
    HOWARD, Circuit Judge.             In October 2011, the State of
    Maine enacted L.D. 1326, "An Act To Allow School Administrative
    Units       To    Seek     Less    Expensive    Health       Insurance   Alternatives,"
    pursuant to which health insurers must disclose, upon written
    request from a public school district, aggregate loss information
    pertaining to any group policies held by the district's employees.1
    L.D.       1326,      125th   Leg.,   1st   Reg.      Sess.    (Me.   2011).       Shortly
    thereafter,            plaintiff-appellant           Maine     Education      Association
    Benefits Trust (the "Trust") -- which manages a statewide health
    insurance plan for a substantial segment of Maine's public school
    work       force      --   filed   suit   in    the   district     court,     seeking   to
    permanently enjoin the law prior to its enforcement.                             The Trust
    alleged, inter alia, that because its loss information constitutes
    a confidential trade secret, the Act's disclosure requirement
    results          in   an   uncompensated       taking    proscribed      by    the   Fifth
    Amendment.            The district court denied the Trust's motion for a
    preliminary injunction, and the Trust now challenges that denial in
    this timely appeal.               After careful consideration, we affirm.
    I.
    A brief overview of the Trust, its health insurance plan,
    and the statutory scheme at issue is necessary for an understanding
    of the claims presented on appeal. The district court's thoughtful
    1
    The phrase "school administrative unit"                            is,    for   our
    purposes, synonymous with "school district."
    -3-
    and comprehensive order, see Maine Educ. Ass'n Benefits Trust v.
    Cioppa, No. 1:11-cv-381-GZS, 
    2012 WL 363923
     (D. Me. Feb. 3, 2012),
    contains a detailed exposition of the undisputed facts, from which
    we borrow.
    A. The Trust and Its Health Insurance Plan
    Since 1993, the Trust has provided health insurance to
    the bulk of Maine's public school employees and their dependents
    through a plan underwritten by various insurers, most recently
    Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield of Maine ("Anthem").        The insurance
    plan (the "Plan"), which currently covers nearly 67,000 members
    from 99 percent of Maine's school districts, is community-rated;
    that is, the price of coverage is negotiated on the basis of group-
    wide   utilization   costs,   and   accounts   for   neither   geographic
    variation nor an individual employer's demographic mix, prior
    utilization, or loss experience.          This community-rated plan is
    designed in part to subsidize, through members who are actuarially
    favorable, the premiums paid by members who are actuarially less
    attractive to insurers. The Plan as designed economically benefits
    employees of educational institutions whose work forces are older
    or less healthy than other members of the group, or who reside in
    regions -- typically Northern and Eastern Maine -- with higher
    health care costs and, on average, lower salaries than their
    Southern Maine counterparts. The Plan is thus structured, in part,
    to help mitigate this disparity.
    -4-
    Eligibility for enrollment in the Plan is determined by
    the collective        bargaining      agreements       negotiated    between local
    bargaining units and individual employers, predominantly school
    districts.    The employees of a given school district are eligible
    to participate in the Plan if the largest collective bargaining
    unit in   that   district        is   represented       by   the   Maine     Education
    Association ("MEA"), the statewide teachers' union that founded the
    Trust. Once eligibility has been established, the school board and
    the employees decide together, by a collaborative vote, whether the
    employees will be offered the Plan.               Those who receive the offer
    and elect to enroll do so directly with the Plan's insurer, Anthem.
    The   Trust     has     no    contracts         with     individual        educational
    institutions, and those institutions are not considered to be
    sponsors of the Plan.        Rather, based on the amount agreed to in its
    own collective bargaining agreement, each school district pays to
    the Plan a percentage of its employees' health insurance premiums,
    and the employees are responsible for the remainder.
    For    the     most    recent    plan    year      for   which    there   was
    evidence at the preliminary injunction hearing, the Plan's annual
    premium was nearly $370,000,000, resulting in an average monthly
    cost of approximately $460 per member.                 The Trust itself maintains
    a reserve fund that, according to its last available audit, held in
    excess of $87,000,000.          The Trust uses the reserve fund to buy down
    -5-
    rate increases, thereby avoiding inflation in the monthly cost
    charged to Plan participants.
    B. The Statutory Scheme
    Similar to the other states, Maine heavily regulates the
    insurance industry.          "Title 24-A, the 'Maine Insurance Code,' has
    85 separate chapters and fills almost two complete volumes of the
    Maine Revised Statutes Annotated.                 There is [also] an entire
    department of State Government, the Insurance Bureau, devoted to
    regulating the business of insurance."              Lessard v. Allstate Ins.
    Co., No. Civ. A. cv-98-162, 
    2001 WL 1712653
    , at *4 (Me. Super. Ct.
    March 12, 2001).
    Under    Maine's    regime,     the   state    has    historically
    compelled the disclosure of basic "loss information," generally
    defined as the aggregate claims experience of a given policy, or
    more specifically, the ratio of premiums charged to claims paid --
    in   short,    a   simple     equation,     and   the   applicable     data,   for
    deciphering the purchaser's own healthcare costs.                   For example,
    Maine law has entitled holders of property and casualty insurance
    policies to obtain such loss information from their carriers since
    1989,   see     1989   Me.    Laws,   Ch.    696,   "An     Act    Requiring   the
    Availability of Insurance Loss Information" (codified at Me. Rev.
    Stat. Ann. tit. 24-A, §§ 2910, 3042).               In 1995, this access was
    expanded to cover current and former policyholders of group and
    blanket health insurance, see 1995 Me. Laws, Ch. 71, "An Act to
    -6-
    Require Insurance Companies to Provide Loss Information to Insured
    Groups" (codified at Me. Rev. Stat. Ann. tit. 24-A, § 2803-A)
    ("Disclosure of Loss information.          Upon written request, every
    insurer shall provide loss information concerning a group policy or
    contract to its policyholder . . . ." (emphasis added)).           L.D. 1326
    is incidentally more expansive,      extending the right of access not
    just to "policyholders," but also to the small subgroup of public
    school districts whose employees are enrolled in a shared health
    insurance policy.
    In   seeking    preliminary     injunctive    relief,    the   Trust
    mounted challenges to the two provisions of the Act that deal with
    loss information, codified at 20-A M.R.S.A. § 1001(14)(E) and 24-A
    M.R.S.A. § 2803-A(2).       As amended, 20-A M.R.S.A. § 1001(14)(E)
    states, in pertinent part:
    Insurance      purchase   by    competitive    bidding
    . . . .
    E. In order to facilitate the competitive
    bidding process in procuring health insurance
    for a school administrative unit's employees
    under this subsection, a school administrative
    unit may request from the insurer providing
    health insurance coverage to its employees and
    retirees loss information concerning all of
    that school administrative unit's employees
    and retirees and their dependents covered
    under the school administrative unit's policy
    or contract pursuant to Title 24-A, section
    2803-A.
    24-A M.R.S.A. § 2803-A(2) reads, in turn:
    -7-
    2. Disclosure of basic loss information. Upon
    written request, every insurer shall provide
    loss information concerning a group policy or
    contract to its policyholder, to a former
    policyholder or to a school administrative
    unit pursuant to Title 20-A, section 1001,
    subsection 14, paragraph E within 21 business
    days of the date of the request.          This
    subsection does not apply to a former
    policyholder whose coverage terminated more
    than 18 months prior to the date of a request.
    The "loss    information"       at   the   center   of   this    controversy    is
    statutorily defined as "the aggregate claims experience of the
    group insurance policy or contract," including "the amount of
    premium received, the amount of claims paid[,] and the loss ratio,"
    but not including "any information or data pertaining to the
    medical diagnosis, treatment[,] or health status that identifies an
    individual covered under the group contract or policy."                  Me. Rev.
    Stat. Ann. tit. 24-A, § 2803-A(1)(B).
    C. The Trust's Past Treatment of Loss Information
    The   Trust   has     structured    itself,     as    well   as    its
    relationships with insurers, to keep the Plan's loss information
    confidential.     Since the Trust's formation in 1993, its Trust
    Agreement has provided, in relevant part:
    Fiduciary Authority. The Trustees shall have
    absolute discretion and authority to make all
    fiduciary     decisions,    plan    provision
    interpretations and constructions, and other
    determinations under this Trust and any plans
    maintained   under   the  Trust,  except   as
    specifically    delegated    to   the    Plan
    Administrator in writing; including, without
    limitation, decisions relating to the use and
    dissemination (if any) of the participant
    -8-
    claims   experience  data   under              any    plan
    maintained under the Trust.
    Additionally, since 2005, the Trust's Group Agreements with Anthem
    have included the following confidentiality clause:
    All experience data relative to the [Trust]
    and its subgroups is owned by the Trust, and
    that data will not be released, either
    directly or indirectly, by Anthem without
    prior written consent of the Trust, and the
    Trust can withhold its permission for any
    reason it deems appropriate.    Additionally,
    Anthem agrees not to utilize data relating to
    specific active subgroups for standalone
    rating purposes.
    In   accordance   with   these     provisions,      the    Trust     has     always
    considered the experience ratings and claims history of individual
    school districts to be a proprietary, confidential trade secret.
    The information    is    not    conveyed    to   anyone    outside      of   Anthem
    (including to members of the Trust itself), and the Trust has
    undertaken   reasonable        efforts     to    ensure    the     information's
    confidentiality by neither collecting it nor allowing Anthem to use
    or release it.2
    A driving force behind these efforts at maintaining
    confidentiality is to prevent actuarially desirable districts from
    acquiring the information and leaving the community-rated plan for
    less expensive individual coverage, thereby increasing the monthly
    2
    The loss information is collected and maintained not by the
    Trust, but by the insurer. The Trust's only role with respect to
    the loss information is in preserving its confidentiality by
    precluding third-party access.
    -9-
    costs for the Plan's remaining members (or, alternatively, forcing
    the Trust to expend additional resources from its reserve fund to
    pay down the resulting rate increases).        Prior to the passage of
    L.D. 1326, the Trust was able to do exactly that, denying multiple
    school district requests for loss information over the years by
    virtue of the fact that the Trust, and not the individual school
    districts, was always the primary "policyholder."            See 1995 Me.
    Laws, Ch. 71 (requiring disclosure of loss information concerning
    a   group   health   insurance   policy   or   contract    only   to   "its
    policyholder").
    Generally, group insurers in Maine require at least two
    years of aggregate loss information from an employer in order to
    provide a quote.     Thus, without access to loss information, school
    districts cannot meaningfully explore insurance options outside
    those offered by the Trust.      Following the enactment of L.D. 1326,
    at least one district has already submitted a renewed request to
    Anthem.     In the absence of an injunction, it is apparent that
    school districts will continue to request access in order to obtain
    competing quotes based on that loss information.          Depending on the
    quotes and the terms of each district's collective bargaining
    agreement, this process may or may not result in some districts
    withdrawing their employees from the Plan.       In most cases, if not
    all of them, negotiating changes to the respective collective
    -10-
    bargaining agreements is a lengthy process that may take months, if
    not years, to complete.
    D. The Proceedings Below
    The Trust filed suit in the district court shortly after
    L.D. 1326 was enacted.    Its amended complaint claimed that the Act
    was preempted by federal law, and that it ran afoul of several
    constitutional impediments, including the Contracts Clause, the
    Takings Clause, and the Due Process Clause.      The district court
    resolved the preemption question, as well as the impairment of
    contract and due process claims, in favor of the defendants-
    appellees, and it denied the Trust's subsequent request for a
    preliminary injunction, finding primarily that the Trust was not
    likely to succeed on the merits of its only remaining claim -- that
    the Act works as an unconstitutional taking.     This interlocutory
    appeal ensued, in which the Trust challenges only the denial of its
    request for a preliminary injunction on takings grounds.3   We have
    jurisdiction under 
    28 U.S.C. § 1292
    (a)(1), and on March 30, 2012,
    3
    We note that, ordinarily, injunctive relief is not available
    under the Takings Clause. See Ruckelshaus v. Monsanto Co., 
    467 U.S. 986
    , 1016 (1984) ("Equitable relief is not available to enjoin
    an alleged taking of private property for public use, duly
    authorized by law, when a suit for compensation can be brought
    against the sovereign subsequent to the taking."); Fideicomiso De
    La Tierra Del Caño Martin Peña v. Fortuño, 
    604 F.3d 7
    , 19 n.10 (1st
    Cir. 2010).     Because the appellees failed to object to the
    appropriateness of this remedy on appeal, however, they have waived
    the argument. See Philip Morris, Inc. v. Reilly, 
    312 F.3d 24
    , 47
    n.22 (1st Cir. 2002) (en banc) ("Philip Morris II").
    -11-
    we entered a temporary injunction prohibiting the enforcement of
    L.D. 1326 pending appeal.
    II.
    In considering a request for a preliminary injunction, a
    trial court must weigh several factors:       (1) the likelihood of
    success on the merits; (2) the potential for irreparable harm to
    the movant in the absence of an injunction; (3) the balance of the
    movant's hardship if relief is denied versus the nonmovant's
    hardship if the relief is granted; and (4) the effect, if any, of
    the decision on the public interest.    Ross-Simons of Warwick, Inc.
    v. Baccarat, Inc., 
    102 F.3d 12
    , 15 (1st Cir. 1996).    Of these four
    factors, the movant's likelihood of success "is the touchstone of
    the preliminary injunction inquiry."         Philip Morris, Inc. v.
    Harshbarger, 
    159 F.3d 670
    , 674 (1st Cir. 1998) ("Philip Morris I").
    "[I]f the moving party cannot demonstrate that he is likely to
    succeed in his quest, the remaining factors become matters of idle
    curiosity." New Comm Wireless Servs., Inc. v. SprintCom, Inc., 
    287 F.3d 1
    , 9 (1st Cir. 2002).
    We will set aside a district court's ruling on a request
    for a preliminary injunction only if the court clearly erred in
    assessing    the   facts,   misapprehended   the   applicable   legal
    principles, or otherwise is shown to have manifestly abused its
    discretion. Cohen v. Brown University, 
    991 F.2d 888
    , 902 (1st Cir.
    1993).   This standard requires "a party who appeals from the
    -12-
    issuance [or denial] of a preliminary injunction [to] bear[] the
    considerable      burden   of   demonstrating      that    the    trial    court
    mishandled the fourpart framework."            Philip Morris I, 
    159 F.3d at 674
     (second and third alterations in original) (quoting Ross-
    Simmons, 102 F.3d at 16) (internal quotation marks omitted).                  In
    this case, our analysis begins and ends with the evaluation of the
    often dispositive factor:           whether the Trust has a reasonable
    likelihood of success on the merits of its takings claim.
    A. Likelihood of Success on the Merits
    The Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment, which applies
    to the states through the Fourteenth Amendment, prohibits the
    taking     of   private    property    for     public     use    without    just
    compensation.      Lingle v. Chevron U.S.A. Inc., 
    544 U.S. 528
    , 536
    (2005).     This prohibition extends not only to the paradigmatic
    physical    taking    --   i.e.,    where    the   government     condemns    or
    physically      appropriates    a   person's    property    --   but   also   to
    regulatory interferences, which transpire "when some significant
    restriction is placed upon an owner's use of his property for which
    'justice and fairness' require that compensation be given." Philip
    Morris, Inc. v. Reilly, 
    312 F.3d 24
    , 33 (1st Cir. 2002) (en banc)
    ("Philip Morris II").4
    4
    "Property," as contemplated by the Fifth Amendment, may be
    real, tangible, or intangible like the purported trade secret at
    issue here. See Monsanto, 
    467 U.S. at 1000-04
    . Although it is far
    from clear that the loss information would qualify as a trade
    secret under Maine law, see 
    Me. Rev. Stat. Ann. tit. 10, § 1542
    (4),
    -13-
    The dichotomy between physical and regulatory takings is
    critical, for it often determines the level of scrutiny that a
    challenged government action will receive.                    In contrast to the law
    of    physical    takings,     which   involves,        for    the   most    part,   the
    "straightforward application of per se rules," the Supreme Court's
    regulatory       takings    jurisprudence     has    eschewed        any    bright-line
    formulations.         Tahoe-Sierra Pres. Council, Inc. v. Tahoe Reg'l
    Planning Agency, 
    535 U.S. 302
    , 322 (2002). To assess the propriety
    of a regulatory takings claim, the Court has instead enumerated a
    more nuanced, three-pronged inquiry into (1) the extent to which
    the    regulation       interferes     with       the     claimant's        reasonable
    investment-backed          expectations;    (2)     the   regulation's        economic
    impact    on    the   property    owner;    and     (3)   the     character     of   the
    government action.         Penn Cent. Transp. Co. v. City of New York, 
    438 U.S. 104
    , 124 (1978). Designed to facilitate a careful examination
    and weighing of all the relevant circumstances, the context-
    sensitive "Penn Central" factors operate not as a "checklist of
    items that can be ticked off as fulfilled or unfulfilled," but
    rather as "lenses through which a court can view and process the
    facts of a given case."          Philip Morris I, 
    159 F.3d at 674
    .
    The Supreme Court has recognized two circumstances under
    which a regulatory action may justify bypassing the Penn Central
    we assume, arguendo, that it comprises a sufficient property
    interest on which to ground a Fifth Amendment takings claim.
    -14-
    factors in favor of per se rules.                     First, where a regulation
    inflicts a permanent physical invasion of private property --
    however minor -- the government must provide just compensation.
    Lingle, 
    544 U.S. at 538
    ;     see,     e.g.,    Loretto       v.    Teleprompter
    Manhattan CATV Corp., 
    458 U.S. 419
     (1982) (finding a taking where
    a state law required landlords to permit cable companies to install
    cable facilities in apartment buildings).                  A second categorical
    rule applies to "regulations that completely deprive an owner of
    all economically beneficial use of her property." Lingle, 
    544 U.S. at 538
     (internal quotation marks and alterations omitted); see,
    e.g., Lucas v. S.C. Coastal Council, 
    505 U.S. 1003
    , 1019 (1992)
    (holding    that    a    regulation      prohibiting      the       erection     of    any
    permanent    habitable       structures       constituted       a    taking).          The
    allegation here -- that L.D. 1326's disclosure requirement impinges
    upon the Trust's purported trade secret -- encompasses neither of
    these    scenarios.          Accordingly,       and    because       the    challenged
    government    action      does     not   directly      appropriate         the   Trust's
    property,    we    proceed    to    analyze     L.D.    1326    under      the   law   of
    regulatory takings.5
    5
    The Trust contends that a taking of intellectual property,
    such as a trade secret, is more properly analyzed under the per se
    rules of the physical takings rubric. Because the Trust did not
    adequately develop this argument in the trial court -- merely
    inviting the district court to "truncate its [Penn Central]
    analysis if it finds that [L.D. 1326] . . . is more analogous to a
    'physical' than a 'regulatory' taking" -- it cannot unveil the
    argument's essence for the first time in the court of appeals. See
    Back Bay Spas, Inc. v. 441 Stuart Marketing, LLC, 
    688 F.3d 61
    , 67
    -15-
    i. Reasonable Investment-Backed Expectations
    Although generally recognized as the figurative ballast
    of   the    Penn       Central      framework,          "reasonable      investment-backed
    expectations" is a concept that can be difficult to define more
    concretely.         See generally J. David Breemer & R.S. Radford, The
    (Less?) Murky Doctrine of Investment-Backed Expectations After
    Palazzolo, and the Lower Courts' Disturbing Insistence on Wallowing
    in   the    Pre-Palazzolo           Muck,       34   S.W.U.      L.    Rev.   351    (2005).
    Nevertheless, one very general contour is clear: "Courts [will]
    only protect [a claimant's] reasonable expectations."                                   Philip
    Morris II, 
    312 F.3d at 36
    .                    Thus, in considering whether the Trust
    possesses the requisite expectations to support a takings claim,
    the inquiry must acknowledge that "not every investment deserves
    protection         and    .    .     .    some       investors        inevitably     will     be
    disappointed."           
    Id.
           The question reduces to whether the Trust,
    given      all    of     the   attendant          facts    and    circumstances,        has    a
    probability        of    success         of    showing    that    it    had   a     reasonable
    (1st Cir. 2012) ("[H]aving chosen its theory of the case below, and
    failed, [the appellant] cannot start over."); McCoy v. Mass. Inst.
    of Tech., 
    950 F.2d 13
    , 22 (1st Cir. 1991) ("If claims are merely
    insinuated rather than actually articulated in the trial court, we
    will ordinarily refuse to deem them preserved for appellate
    review.").    In any event, we are confident that under the
    circumstances presented, our precedent supports the application of
    the Penn Central factors. See Philip Morris II, 
    312 F.3d at 33-34
    (applying a regulatory takings analysis to an alleged taking of a
    trade secret); see also Monsanto, 
    467 U.S. at 1005
     (same); Pharm.
    Care Mgmt. Ass'n v. Rowe, 
    429 F.3d 294
    , 315 (1st Cir. 2005) (same).
    -16-
    expectation     that     the    Plan's      loss   information     will     be    kept
    confidential.    We think not.
    As a baseline proposition, the Trust's expectations are
    substantially diminished by the highly regulated nature of the
    industry in which it operates. See Franklin Mem'l Hosp. v. Harvey,
    
    575 F.3d 121
    , 128 (1st Cir. 2009) (holding that a claimant's
    investment-backed expectations were "tempered by the fact that it
    operate[d] in the highly regulated hospital industry"); see also
    Ruckelshaus v. Monsanto Co., 
    467 U.S. 986
    , 1007 (1984) (noting that
    expectations are necessarily adjusted in areas that "ha[ve] long
    been the source of public concern and the subject of government
    regulation").          Given    the   historically        heavy   and     continuous
    regulation of insurance in Maine, see Lessard, 
    2001 WL 17126553
    , at
    *4, the Trust, in choosing how and where to allocate its resources,
    ought to at least be aware of the heightened possibility that new
    insurance regulations might hinder the use or value of its loss
    information, see Lucas, 
    505 U.S. at 1027-28
    .
    This is particularly true where, as here, the extensive
    regulatory    framework        in   place    prior   to    the    passage    of    the
    challenged legislation has consistently regulated the type of
    property interest for which the claimant seeks constitutional
    protection.    See, e.g., Connolly v. Pension Ben. Guar. Corp., 
    475 U.S. 211
    , 226 (1986) (finding no reasonable investment-backed
    expectations where the property interest at issue had been the
    -17-
    "object[] of legislative concern long before the passage of [the
    challenged legislation]").         Since 1989, holders of property and
    casualty    insurance    in   Maine   have    been   able     to   obtain   their
    policies' loss information.        See 1989 Me. Laws, Ch. 696.          In 1995
    -- not long after the Trust was formed, and well before it began to
    insist on the inclusion of confidentiality provisions in its Group
    Agreements -- this right of access to loss information was expanded
    to policyholders of group and blanket health insurance like the
    Plan at issue here.      See 1995 Me. Laws, Ch. 71.            Thus, for years
    the Trust was spared the obligation of disclosure solely because of
    the Plan's unique structure, whereby the Trust, and not the school
    district, was the technical policyholder. Throughout this extended
    period, several of the state's school districts were clamoring for
    loss information, and ultimately, for the legislature to close this
    perceived loophole.      See Apollo Fuels, Inc. v. United States, 
    381 F.3d 1338
    , 1349 (Fed. Cir. 2004) (suggesting that a key aspect of
    the   investment-backed       expectations    inquiry    is    the   claimant's
    awareness    of   "the    problem      that    spawned      the    [challenged]
    regulation").     Under these circumstances, the prospect of the
    legislature's continued expansion of this right of access was
    reasonably foreseeable.6
    6
    Maine health insurers must additionally submit group-policy
    loss information to the Maine Bureau of Insurance through rate
    filings, see Me. Rev. Stat. Ann. tit. 24-A, §§ 2736, 2808-B(2-A) &
    2839, annual reports, see Me. Rev. Stat. Ann. tit. 24-A, §§ 423 &
    423-D, and beginning in 2012, in medical loss ratio reports, see 42
    -18-
    The    Trust,     in     challenging    this     conclusion,   relies
    principally on the distinction between "policyholders" and "non-
    policyholders."    It contends that because L.D. 1326 grants non-
    policyholders    (the     school     districts)      access   to   confidential
    policyholder    information,       it   represents    an   "extraordinary and
    unprecedented" regulatory shift.           We disagree.
    As a preliminary matter, requiring the disclosure of
    otherwise private information to non-policyholders is not a novel
    concept in Maine insurance law.            See, e.g., Me. Rev. Stat. Ann.
    tit. 24-A, § 2210 (requiring insurers to provide personal data to
    claimants and insureds over a policyholder's objection); Me. Code.
    R. 90 590 243 §§ 2, 5 (2003) (requiring insurers to provide claims
    data to the government over a policyholder's objection).
    Moreover, the significant role that school districts play
    in the Plan's overall scheme is important to the analysis.               While
    it is true that the districts do not formally sign the insurance
    agreements on behalf of their employees, and therefore are not the
    formal sponsors of the Plan, they are otherwise integrally involved
    U.S.C. § 300gg-18(a). Although insurers may request that any such
    data submitted in large-group rate filings be treated as
    confidential, any loss information included in annual reports or
    medical loss ratio reports is subject to full public disclosure.
    While the loss information shared in these instruments is typically
    aggregated across entire policies (or perhaps even entire blocks of
    business), and therefore does not necessitate disclosure of the
    district-by-district breakdown that constitutes the Trust's
    purported trade secret, these additional disclosure requirements
    serve to further highlight the State's extensive regulation of loss
    information.
    -19-
    in just about every step of the process, from negotiating the
    collective bargaining agreements to organizing and participating in
    collaborative votes to determine whether their employees may enroll
    in the Plan in the first instance.              In the event that loss
    information   is   to   be   disclosed   for   the   purpose   of   exploring
    alternative district-specific coverage, the district itself is the
    obvious choice to assume "policyholder" status.            Indeed, the Act
    forecloses the type of "unprecedented" access argued by the Trust,
    by restricting disclosure to loss information that concerns the
    inquiring district's own employees, retirees, and their dependents;
    it does not grant access to the Trust's policy-wide loss ratios.
    See Me. Rev. Stat. Ann. tit. 20-A, § 1001(14)(E).                   Thus, the
    districts are not, as the Trust suggests, mere "strangers to the
    insurance contract" in the ordinary sense, and L.D. 1326 is not at
    odds with Maine's existing body of insurance law.7
    7
    The Trust's attempt to analogize the facts of this case to
    those we considered in Philip Morris II is also unpersuasive. See
    
    312 F.3d 24
    . Although Philip Morris II addressed, as here, the
    potential regulatory taking of a trade secret, its factual context
    was dramatically different. There, tobacco companies challenged a
    Massachusetts law which compelled them to disclose their cigarette
    recipes -- traditionally protected trade secrets in which they
    invested substantial amounts to maintain an advantage in a highly
    competitive private industry.      Here, by contrast, the Trust
    challenges a Maine law that compels the disclosure of loss
    information -- a purported trade secret in which the Trust has made
    no significant developmental investment, and a type of property
    interest which has consistently been targeted by state regulation
    given the need for transparency in the public-oriented insurance
    industry.   Fundamentally distinguishable on its facts, Philip
    Morris II does not suggest a finding of reasonable investment-
    backed expectations in this case.
    -20-
    While this conclusion is largely dictated by precedent,
    it is also rational from a policy standpoint.               The motivation
    behind the State's previous attempts to regulate loss information
    was clear:       to prevent sellers of group health insurance from
    acquiring disproportionate leverage over buyers by ensuring that
    both parties have access to the relevant cost information.               The
    construct created and advocated by the Trust, under which such
    information cannot be released to "non-policyholders," effectively
    precludes any member school district from opting out of the Plan,
    and thus is contrary to the regulation's intent by denying school
    districts the benefit of equal access.
    We recognize that the Trust's purpose is to spread health
    risk among a larger population, thereby bringing insurance costs
    down for districts in which enrollees, on average, are less healthy
    and where health care costs are relatively high.           Nonetheless, the
    fact   remains    that   the   legislation   is   highly   consistent   with
    legitimate policy objectives.       L.D. 1326 simply continues what the
    1989 and 1995 regulations started by addressing a unique scenario
    which, in all likelihood, was not contemplated by the original
    legislation. Cf. Connolly, 
    475 U.S. at 227
     ("Those who do business
    in the regulated field cannot object if the legislative scheme is
    buttressed by subsequent amendments to achieve the legislative
    end." (quoting FHA v. The Darlington, Inc., 
    358 U.S. 84
    , 91
    (1958)).
    -21-
    The Trust's remaining arguments on this issue require
    little discussion.    It attempts to treat the aforementioned facts
    in isolation, asserting that none, standing alone, was sufficient
    to provide the Trust with constructive notice of L.D. 1326.   It may
    be that neither the fact that the insurance industry is highly
    regulated nor the fact that school districts routinely sought
    access to the seemingly confidential loss information, standing
    alone, sufficiently undermines the reasonableness of the Trust's
    expectations.   But taken together, and in light of the State's
    history of aggressively regulating the use and disclosure of loss
    information, L.D. 1326 is a relatively minor expansion which the
    Trust could, and should, have anticipated.
    We do not discount the fact that, since its inception,
    the Trust has gone to lengths to preserve the confidentiality of
    its purported trade secret.   Its Trust Agreements, as well as its
    post-2004 Group Agreements with Anthem, unequivocally reserve to
    the Trust all rights respecting the Plan's loss information, and
    the Trust has enforced those rights in the face of repeated school
    district inquiries.     The Trust therefore has demonstrated an
    expectation of confidentiality.    But unilateral expectations, no
    matter how adamantly pursued, are not enough.    See Monsanto, 
    467 U.S. at 1005-06
    .   The expectation must be a reasonable one, and on
    -22-
    the record before us, we cannot conclude that the plaintiffs have
    shown a probability of success on this issue.8
    ii. Economic Impact
    Evaluating   the   magnitude   of   the   economic   impact   of
    regulatory action ordinarily requires an assessment of the extent
    to which the action "impairs the value or [typical] use" of the
    property.     PruneYard Shopping Ctr. v. Robins, 
    447 U.S. 74
    , 83
    (1980).     In this regard, a result of the law's requirement that
    loss information be disclosed to districts upon request is that the
    Trust may be less able to prevent districts with favorable claims
    experience from shopping for alternative coverage.         Upon acquiring
    their respective    loss   information, some      actuarially    favorable
    school districts may leave the Plan for less expensive district-
    specific coverage, resulting in relatively higher premiums for the
    Plan's remaining members (or greater expenditures by the Trust to
    pay those rate increases down).      We do not minimize this possible
    impact, and we acknowledge the Trust's defensible goal of making
    insurance more affordable for those in areas where health care
    costs are higher and teacher salaries are lower.
    8
    The parties and the district court bifurcate the
    expectations analysis, addressing pre- and post-L.D. 1326 loss
    information separately. Because the Trust has not demonstrated a
    probability of success in establishing a reasonable expectation
    regarding the confidentiality of loss information accumulated prior
    to L.D. 1326, however, it follows that no such expectation would
    exist subsequent to the legislation's enactment.
    -23-
    The likelihood and severity of the exodus of members,
    however, are completely unknown. The only concrete evidence on the
    issue includes the affidavits of the parties' dueling actuaries who
    debate, at a high level of generality, the extent to which L.D.
    1326 will undermine the Trust's prospective viability. To wit, the
    Trust's   actuarial    expert,     having    been    denied    access   to    the
    district-specific loss ratios,9 was able to conclude only that "if
    individual school districts purchase insurance on their own, some
    groups with lower average age, more favorable utilization history,
    or a lower cost of geographic area might be able to take advantage
    of that more favorable profile and obtain insurance from Anthem or
    another   carrier     at   lower   cost     than    they   currently    pay    to
    participate in the . . . [P]lan."           This evidence merely serves to
    highlight the conjectural nature of the Act's economic impact, and
    is "not sufficiently concrete to establish a taking."              In re Jones
    Truck Lines, Inc., 
    57 F.3d 642
    , 651 (8th Cir. 1995) (finding that
    economic impact was too speculative to support a takings claim);
    see also Tenn. Scrap Recyclers Ass'n v. Bredesen, 
    556 F.3d 442
    , 456
    (6th Cir. 2009) (finding that the economic impact of the challenged
    regulation did not support the movant's takings claim, in part
    because   "the      [economic]     impact     of    [the      regulation     was]
    speculative").
    9
    The expert stated in his affidavit that "I do not have
    access to the experience of the individual districts whose
    employees and retirees are covered by the . . . [P]lan."
    -24-
    Whether or not at trial, and with a more developed
    evidentiary   foundation,   the    Trust   may   be   able   to   prove   the
    requisite economic impact, it has not yet done so sufficiently to
    show a probability of success on the merits.
    iii. Character of the Government Action
    The third and final consideration in the regulatory
    takings analysis -- the character of the government action -- also
    weighs against the Trust's takings claim. Under Penn Central, "[a]
    'taking' may more readily be found when the interference with
    property can be characterized as a physical invasion by government
    than when [the] interference arises from some public program
    adjusting the benefits and burdens of economic life to promote the
    common good."    
    Id.
     (citation omitted).      L.D. 1326 clearly falls on
    the latter end of the spectrum, reflecting the legislature's
    judgment that allowing school districts to access their employees'
    loss information will promote the common good by creating a wider
    array of competitively priced group health insurance options.             See
    Me. Rev. Stat. Ann. tit. 20-A, § 1001(14)(E) (enabling school
    districts   to   request   their   loss    information   "[i]n    order   to
    facilitate the competitive bidding process in procuring [group]
    health insurance").
    The Trust argues that even if the Act is intended to
    promote the common good, it does so improperly by reallocating to
    the Trust alone what is essentially a public burden. Claiming that
    -25-
    it has been effectively "singl[ed] out" by the Maine legislature,
    the Trust directs us to five comments in the Act's legislative
    record which, more or less, appear to cast the Trust in a negative
    light.
    The argument, however, is unavailing. L.D. 1326 does not
    apply solely to the Trust; it applies to every existing or future
    multi-employer group health insurance plan in which the State's
    public school districts choose to enroll. That the Trust attracted
    the attention of a handful of legislators, and currently bears the
    brunt of the Act's burden, is merely a byproduct of its holding the
    predominant share of the targeted market -- a virtual monopoly,
    perpetuated by the very policy of non-disclosure which it seeks to
    protect.   At the preliminary injunction stage, the Trust has not
    shown that the Act attempts to impose on the Trust an excessive
    burden that should in fairness be borne by other entities or by
    society as a whole.    Cf. E. Enter. v. Apfel, 
    524 U.S. 498
    , 537
    (1998) (holding that the character of a state regulation supported
    the movant's takings claim only where it "single[d] out certain
    employers to bear a burden that is substantial in amount, based on
    the employers' conduct far in the past, and unrelated to any
    commitment that the employers made or to any injury that they
    caused"). Thus, the third Penn Central factor, like the two before
    it, counsels against finding that a taking has occurred.
    -26-
    We emphasize that because we hear this matter on appeal
    from the denial of a preliminary injunction, our likelihood-of-
    success determinations are to be understood only as probable
    outcomes.   See Cohen, 
    991 F.2d at 902
    .   At the upcoming trial, the
    Trust will have the opportunity to demonstrate more concretely and
    comprehensively the economic impact that it fears, namely, the
    withdrawal of school districts with better claims experience and
    the resulting increased cost of health insurance coverage for the
    Trust's remaining members.     Based on the present state of the
    record, however, we cannot conclude that the Trust is likely to
    succeed on the merits.
    III.
    Because the plaintiffs have not established a likelihood
    of success, and such a showing is essential to the issuance of a
    preliminary injunction, see Philip Morris I, 
    159 F.3d at 674
    , it
    would serve no useful purpose to explore the remaining three facets
    of the preliminary injunction framework.     We conclude that there
    was no abuse of discretion in the denial of the Trust's motion for
    a preliminary injunction, and leave to the trial court to determine
    whether it should stay enforcement of the Act pending hearing
    evidence and decision on the merits.   The decision of the district
    court is affirmed.     Each side shall bear its own costs of this
    appeal.
    -27-