Mendez Esteban v. Garland ( 2023 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 22-1215
    ALFONSO ESTUARDO MENDEZ ESTEBAN,
    Petitioner,
    v.
    MERRICK B. GARLAND,
    UNITED STATES ATTORNEY GENERAL,
    Respondent.
    PETITION FOR REVIEW OF AN ORDER
    OF THE BOARD OF IMMIGRATION APPEALS
    Before
    Kayatta, Gelpí, and Montecalvo,
    Circuit Judges.
    Patrick T. Roath, with whom Ropes & Gray LLP, Samuel L.
    Brenner, Emma Coreno, and Rachel Scholz-Bright were on brief for
    petitioner.
    John F. Stanton, Trial Attorney, Office of Immigration
    Litigation, with whom Brian Boynton, Principal Deputy Assistant
    Attorney General, Civil Division, and Jessica E. Burns, Senior
    Litigation Counsel, Office of Immigration Litigation, were on
    brief for respondent.
    May 11, 2023
    MONTECALVO, Circuit Judge.         Alfonso Estuardo Mendez
    Esteban ("Mendez") has petitioned for review of a decision from
    the Board of Immigration Appeals ("BIA") dismissing his appeal of
    an Immigration Judge's ("IJ") decision denying his applications
    for asylum, withholding of removal, and protection under the
    Convention Against Torture ("CAT"), and ordering his removal to
    Guatemala.
    Fleeing death threats and physical violence at the hands
    of a rival political party in Guatemala, Mendez came to the United
    States in January 2015 seeking protection.        Soon after he arrived
    in the United States, the Department of Homeland Security ("DHS")
    initiated removal proceedings against him.        Before the IJ, Mendez
    applied for asylum and related humanitarian relief.               The IJ
    concluded    that   Mendez   had   suffered   political   persecution   in
    Guatemala and was therefore presumed to have a well-founded fear
    of future persecution.       The IJ went on, however, to find that DHS
    had successfully rebutted that presumption based on a showing of
    changed country conditions.         The IJ therefore denied Mendez's
    claims for asylum and related relief because he found that Mendez
    had failed to establish the requisite basis for his fear.         Mendez
    appealed to the BIA.    The BIA affirmed the IJ's decision, and this
    petition followed.
    For the reasons that follow, we grant the petition and
    vacate the decisions of the BIA and IJ as to Mendez's political
    - 2 -
    opinion-based asylum and withholding of removal claims, remand
    for further proceedings on those claims, and deny what remains of
    the petition.
    I.     Factual Background1
    Mendez is a Guatemalan citizen of indigenous ancestry.
    In 2013, he joined Guatemala's Libertad Democrática Renovada party
    ("LIDER").          Mendez     believed       LIDER's    community-centric
    agenda -- which     advocated      for     greater   investment   in    local
    infrastructure and municipal services -- stood in stark contrast
    to what he viewed as the corrupt politics of LIDER's political
    rival, the National Unity of Hope party ("UNE").              At the time,
    UNE controlled the regional government where Mendez lived, but
    LIDER was organizing to challenge that control in Guatemala's 2015
    elections. By 2014, Mendez was directing LIDER's advertising and,
    in furtherance of LIDER's effort to defeat UNE in the 2015
    elections, actively campaigning for LIDER throughout the region.
    In November 2014, Mendez, his brother-in-law Armando,
    and two other LIDER members traveled to a nearby community to
    campaign for LIDER candidates.           During this trip, six UNE members
    approached Mendez and his fellow LIDER members and began making
    death    threats.     The    UNE   members    also   warned   against   them
    1 We draw the relevant facts from the administrative record.
    See Adeyanju v. Garland, 
    27 F.4th 25
    , 31 (1st Cir. 2022). This
    includes Mendez's testimony before the IJ, which the IJ found to
    be credible. See 
    id.
    - 3 -
    continuing to campaign for LIDER in the community.              After this
    confrontation, Mendez and the other LIDER members left.
    The next month, Mendez and the same three LIDER members
    traveled    again -- this   time    to     a    different   community -- to
    campaign on behalf of LIDER.             While the LIDER members were
    distributing LIDER materials and meeting with potential recruits,
    two armed UNE members approached the group and asked what they
    were doing there.    When Mendez responded that he was campaigning
    for LIDER, one UNE member beat him.            As a result of the beating,
    Mendez was hospitalized for one night where he was treated with
    pain killers.
    About one week later, on December 23, 2014, Mendez again
    traveled out-of-town with the same group of LIDER members.            This
    time, they drove to a nearby community to pick up LIDER supporters
    for a Christmas celebration. At the prearranged pick-up location,
    UNE members were also waiting for a ride from members of their
    party.     Recognizing Mendez's car, the UNE members approached it
    and confronted Mendez.      The UNE members brandished guns, accused
    Mendez of targeting LIDER recruitment at UNE members, and fired
    warning shots into the air.        Fearing for his life, Mendez left.
    He never returned to that community or the other two communities
    where he had been targeted by members of UNE.
    On   December 30, 2014 -- seven          days    after   Mendez
    witnessed the UNE members fire warning shots -- his brother-in-law
    - 4 -
    Armando's body was found with a fatal gunshot wound to his chest.
    The    police   were     called,     but     Armando's    death     was     never
    investigated.     Mendez believes that Armando, Mendez's only family
    member known to publicly support LIDER, was killed by members of
    UNE.    It was Armando's death that made Mendez "decide[] to leave
    the country."
    Soon after, Mendez fled Guatemala for the United States.
    He presented himself at a U.S. port of entry on January 18, 2015,
    and during an inspection interview, informed an officer that he
    feared for his life in Guatemala.          DHS detained Mendez and placed
    him    in   removal    proceedings   where     he   promptly   conceded      his
    removability.         While detained, Mendez passed a credible fear
    interview and was released on parole to seek asylum.
    II.   Procedural History
    Having     conceded     removability,       Mendez's         removal
    proceedings centered on his eligibility for humanitarian relief.
    On     December 11, 2015,       Mendez     timely   applied       for     asylum,
    withholding of removal, and CAT protection.              Mendez alleged that
    he had been persecuted in Guatemala based on two independently
    protected grounds -- his political opinion and his membership in
    the particular social group of males of indigenous ancestry who
    are politically active in Guatemala -- and argued that he would
    be harmed or killed if he were returned to Guatemala.
    - 5 -
    A.    The IJ's Decision
    At the merits hearing before the IJ, Mendez testified
    to the scope of his political activity in Guatemala, his work for
    LIDER, his encounters with members of UNE, and the circumstances
    surrounding Armando's death. Finding Mendez's testimony credible,
    the IJ concluded that Mendez had suffered political persecution
    in Guatemala, giving rise to a presumption of a well-founded fear
    of future persecution.2 Relying on a 2017 State Department country
    conditions report and Mendez's own testimony, the IJ further
    found, however, that DHS had rebutted that presumption by showing
    fundamental changes to the conditions in Guatemala that negated
    the objective basis for Mendez's once well-founded fear.         The IJ
    therefore found Mendez ineligible for asylum and related relief
    because he failed to prove that his asserted fear was -- at a
    minimum -- well-founded.      The IJ reasoned that "because the UNE
    party is no longer in power, there[] [had] been a change in
    circumstances such that [Mendez] no longer has well-founded fear
    of the UNE party."
    The   IJ   also   denied   Mendez's   alternative   basis   for
    asylum: persecution on account of his membership in a proposed
    2 The IJ concluded that, taken together, the following three
    incidents amounted to past persecution on account of Mendez's
    political opinion: (1) UNE members threatened "they would kill
    [Mendez]"; (2) armed UNE members physically beat Mendez; and
    (3) UNE members threatened Mendez by shooting bullets into the
    air.
    - 6 -
    particular   social     group    comprised   of   "[m]ales   of   indigenous
    ancestry who are politically active in Guatemala."            The IJ found
    insufficient evidence of a nexus between UNE's targeting of Mendez
    and his indigenous ancestry to establish the past persecution or
    fear of future persecution required for asylum or withholding of
    removal.     The   IJ   therefore    concluded    that   Mendez   could   not
    establish eligibility for asylum or withholding of removal on
    account of membership in his proposed particular social group.
    Without discussing the merits of his claims, the IJ also
    denied Mendez's political violence-based requests for withholding
    of removal and CAT protection.         The IJ found that because Mendez
    failed to meet asylum's less onerous showing of a "well-founded"
    fear of future political persecution, he necessarily failed to
    make the heightened showing of likely future harm necessary for
    withholding of removal.         The IJ further found that Mendez had not
    shown that it was more likely than not that he would be tortured
    if returned to Guatemala, as is necessary for protection under
    CAT.   Accordingly, the IJ denied all requested relief and ordered
    Mendez removed to Guatemala.         Mendez appealed to the BIA.
    B.     The BIA's Decision
    On appeal to the BIA, Mendez challenged, inter alia,
    the IJ's conclusion that changed country conditions in Guatemala
    had obviated any need for political asylum.          Specifically, Mendez
    argued that the IJ erred in finding that DHS had satisfied its
    - 7 -
    rebuttal burden where the record lacked evidence that changes in
    Guatemala undermined the objective basis for Mendez's particular
    substantiated fear.
    The BIA affirmed the IJ's conclusion that DHS had met
    its rebuttal burden based on four facts, drawn in part from the
    2017 State Department country conditions report and in part from
    Mendez's own testimony: (1) that "Guatemala has had a peaceful
    transition of power;" (2) "that the rival political party, . . .
    [UNE], whom the respondent fears is no longer in power at the
    national level"; (3) that "the political party [Mendez] was a
    member of, . . . [LIDER], is no longer in existence"; and (4) that
    Mendez "has not been threatened since the last election and no
    one has contacted or threatened [Mendez's] family in Guatemala on
    his behalf since he fled the country in 2015."          Accordingly, the
    BIA discerned no error, dismissed Mendez's appeal, and affirmed
    the IJ's decision denying all forms of requested relief.            Mendez
    petitioned this court for review.3
    III. Standard of Review
    We   review   the   BIA's   decision   in   this   case   as   the
    agency's final decision and look to the IJ's decision only "to
    the extent that the BIA deferred to or adopted the IJ's reasoning."
    Chavez v. Garland, 
    51 F.4th 424
    , 429 (1st Cir. 2022).
    3Accompanying his petition, Mendez filed an unopposed motion
    to stay his removal, which this court granted on April 1, 2022.
    - 8 -
    Questions of law are reviewed de novo, "subject to
    appropriate           principles         of       administrative       deference."
    Larios v. Holder, 
    608 F.3d 105
    , 107 (1st Cir. 2010).                         Factual
    findings are reviewed under the deferential substantial-evidence
    standard, "meaning we accept the findings 'as long as they are
    supported by reasonable, substantial[,] and probative evidence on
    the    record    considered         as    a    whole.'"        Aguilar-De    Guillen
    v. Sessions, 
    902 F.3d 28
    , 32 (1st Cir. 2018) (quoting Singh v.
    Holder, 
    750 F.3d 84
    , 86 (1st Cir. 2014)).
    IV.    Discussion
    A. Asylum
    To qualify for asylum, an applicant must be a "refugee,"
    as    defined    by       the   Immigration     and   Nationality    Act    ("INA").
    
    8 U.S.C. § 1158
    (b)(1); 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.13
    (a).                     Under the INA, a
    refugee is a noncitizen who is "unable or unwilling to return to"
    his    country       of     nationality       "because    of   persecution    or   a
    well-founded fear of persecution on account of race, religion,
    nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political
    opinion."        
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(42)(A).               Here,    Mendez    claimed
    persecution on account of two independent grounds: political
    opinion and membership in a particular social group.
    1.        Past Persecution - Political Opinion
    When an IJ concludes that an asylum seeker experienced
    past persecution, that applicant is entitled to a rebuttable
    - 9 -
    presumption       of     a     well-founded         fear    of    future     persecution.
    
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.13
    (b)(1).              To rebut this presumption, DHS must
    prove, by a preponderance of the evidence, that "[t]here has been
    a fundamental change in circumstances such that the applicant no
    longer    has   a      well-founded         fear    of     persecution."4       
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.13
    (b)(1)(i)(A); see Palma-Mazariegos v. Gonzales, 
    428 F.3d 30
    , 34 (1st Cir. 2005).
    Here,        the    IJ   concluded        that       Mendez    suffered    past
    persecution in Guatemala on account of his political opinion and
    afforded Mendez the benefit of the presumption.                             DHS does not
    challenge that finding.               However, the IJ also concluded -- and
    the   BIA   agreed –- that            DHS     had     successfully         rebutted    that
    presumption,        rendering        Mendez    ineligible          for    asylum.      This
    required    DHS     to       prove   that    the     conditions      in    Guatemala    had
    "changed so dramatically" since December 2014 "as to undermine
    the well-foundedness of [Mendez's] fear."                          Chreng v. Gonzales,
    
    471 F.3d 14
    , 21 (1st Cir. 2006).
    Because the denial of Mendez's asylum claim turned on
    reasoning about specific facts, we review the decision below for
    substantial evidence.            See Moreno v. Holder, 
    749 F.3d 40
    , 43 (1st
    4DHS can also rebut the presumption of well-founded fear by
    showing that "[t]he applicant could avoid future persecution by
    relocating to another part of the applicant's country . . . [and]
    it would be reasonable to expect the applicant to do so." 8 C.F.R
    § 1208.13(b)(1)(i)(B). Because this avenue is not pursued here,
    we need not address it.
    - 10 -
    Cir. 2014).    On the record before us, we conclude that, even under
    the deferential substantial evidence standard, the record fails
    to establish changed conditions in Guatemala that have negated
    Mendez's already substantiated fear.
    i.      Country Conditions Report
    In affirming the IJ's conclusion that changed conditions
    in Guatemala eliminated Mendez's need for political asylum, the
    BIA   relied   primarily      on    information     in   the    United    States
    Department of State's 2017 country conditions report on Guatemala
    (the "2017 report").         But state department reports, even where
    "probative of country conditions," Palma-Mazariegos, 
    428 F.3d at 36
    , seldom can carry DHS's burden alone.            See Quevedo v. Ashcroft,
    
    336 F.3d 39
    , 44 (1st Cir. 2003) ("Evidence from the government
    about changed country conditions does not automatically rebut the
    presumption.").       That    is    so   because    these   reports      are   not
    ordinarily tailored to the facts of any particular case.                 See 
    id.
    ("[Country conditions] evidence is often general in nature and
    may not be an adequate response to an applicant's showing of
    specific   personal     danger.").        Rather,    they      provide   generic
    overviews of the geopolitical landscape in the removal country.
    See Palma-Mazariegos, 
    428 F.3d at 36
    ; Fergiste v. I.N.S., 
    138 F.3d 14
    , 19 (1st     Cir. 1998)         (country conditions report discussed
    "political and social conditions in generalized terms").                       And
    "abstract evidence of generalized changes in country conditions,
    - 11 -
    without more, cannot rebut a presumption of a well-founded fear
    of future persecution."              Palma-Mazariegos, 
    428 F.3d at 35
    .
    To rebut this presumption with a country conditions
    report alone, DHS must prove that the fundamental change conveyed
    in the report "negate[s] [the] petitioner's particular fear." 
    Id.
    So,    while          "account[ing] . . . [for]                   the         individual's
    particularized         substantiated            fear"     typically          demands    more
    evidence than the state department's country conditions assessment
    provides, Chreng, 
    471 F.3d at 21
    , a report that "convincingly
    demonstrates         material       changes      in     country     conditions"         that
    themselves      directly          undercut      the     objective       basis     for    the
    petitioner's presumptive fear "may be sufficient, in and of it
    itself,"     to         support          rebuttal         of      the         presumption.
    Palma-Mazariegos, 
    428 F.3d at 36
    ; see Waweru v. Gonzales, 
    437 F.3d 199
    ,   203-05        (1st     Cir.      2006)     (finding      generalized        country
    conditions      sufficient         to    rebut       petitioner's       presumption       of
    well-founded     fear        of   political      persecution       where       persecuting
    government      had    been       ousted      from      power   with     no     reasonable
    likelihood      of    return).          And     where    rebuttal       is    premised    on
    particularized evidence from the report itself, "[s]uch focused
    evidence   is    to     be    distinguished           from   cursory     statements      or
    broad-brush generalizations about changed country conditions."
    Palma-Mazariegos, 
    428 F.3d at 36
    .
    - 12 -
    Because Mendez experienced past persecution on account
    of his political opposition to UNE,5 the critical question here
    is   whether    the    2017    report   demonstrates       that     conditions    in
    Guatemala have changed such that expressing one's opposition to
    UNE is no longer an objective reason to fear persecution.                      Here,
    the BIA upheld the IJ's finding of changed country conditions
    based on two facts drawn from the 2017 report (and repeated in
    some cases in Mendez's testimony): (1) the diminution of UNE's
    power on the national level and (2) a peaceful transition of power
    following the 2015 elections.           We review each fact drawn from the
    country conditions report in turn.
    We begin with the IJ and BIA's reliance on UNE's changed
    political      power   in     Guatemala.      The    BIA     held    that     "[t]he
    record . . . establishes         that    Guatemala     has    had     a     peaceful
    transition of power and that the rival political party, [UNE],
    whom the respondent fears is no longer in power at the national
    level."6    We disagree.
    Based on Mendez's credible testimony, the IJ found that
    5
    Mendez had suffered past persecution on account of his opposition
    to "the corrupt political party in power in his region."
    6The IJ noted -- in a comment adopted by the BIA -- that
    Mendez "testified that UNE is no longer in power as the majority
    party."    However, the parties agree this statement is not
    reflected in the transcript, and we therefore do not credit it
    here. See Aguilar-De Guillen, 
    902 F.3d at 32
    . The IJ's statement
    likely was drawn from mishearing the following exchange:
    [QUESTION] TO MR. MENDEZ ESTEBAN[:]
    - 13 -
    Unlike   the     BIA,   we    view    the   2017    report    to   be
    inconclusive   on   UNE's     power     over    political     institutions    in
    Guatemala following the 2015 elections.            While the IJ and the BIA
    equated UNE's loss of the presidency in 2015 with "no longer
    [being] in power at the national level," we find no support for
    that inference in the record.              The 2017 report contains no
    information about the political composition of the Guatemalan
    legislature    or   UNE's     representation      in   regional    and    local
    governments.
    Likewise, we find nothing in the record to suggest that
    UNE's loss of the presidency prevents UNE from persecuting its
    political opponents.        To the contrary, Mendez credibly testified
    that UNE is the majority party in the country, is active in the
    region where Mendez lived, and is "on the elections" for the year
    2020.   Even the IJ recognized UNE's continued political influence
    in Guatemala in its analysis of Mendez's past persecution claim,
    noting that:
    The UNE party is not the majority party in
    Guatemala, correct?
    MR. MENDEZ ESTEBAN [RESPONSE:]
    I think now it is.
    - 14 -
    UNE is a political party who does hold
    representation in the political scheme and
    structure of Guatemala. They have at times
    had majority power in the ruling party, and
    at times have had the leader -- the head of
    state of the country as a member of their
    party. Thus, regardless of the UNE's current
    representation and power structure, they are
    a political party capable of exerting the
    influence of the government. . . .
    Given the record before us, we fail to see how the 2017
    report's   reference    to   UNE's     loss   of    the   presidency   in   2015
    supports the BIA's finding that political conditions in Guatemala
    have "fundamental[ly] change[d]" in a way that prevents UNE from
    persecuting its political opponents.
    Nevertheless, even if UNE had become powerless on the
    national level, DHS still cannot satisfy its burden with the
    general statements about national politics untethered to Mendez's
    particular substantiated fear.          Mendez's presumptive fear turns
    on UNE's power and influence at the local and regional levels of
    government.       It follows that a generic statement about UNE's
    national profile, without more, lacks the requisite connection to
    Mendez's particular fear.       See Hernandez-Barrera v. Ashcroft, 
    373 F.3d 9
    , 24 (1st Cir. 2004).       Such attempts at improperly equating
    a   party's    diminished    posture    on    the   national   level   to    its
    influence on local politics is precisely what the particularized
    evidence requirement was intended to prevent.               See Fergiste, 
    138 F.3d at 19
    .
    - 15 -
    Finally, in support of its conclusion that Guatemala
    had a peaceful transition of power after the 2015 election, the
    BIA cited to the 2017 report's statement that "[a]n Organization
    of American States international election observation mission
    characterized the [2015] elections as generally free and fair."
    But Mendez points out that the 2017 report does not define
    "generally   free   and    fair,"   and   therefore   does   not   rule   out
    occurrences of political violence or particularized persecution
    during the 2015 election.
    We need not speculate about the scope of a "generally
    free and fair" election where DHS does not contest the IJ's
    conclusion that Mendez experienced political persecution while
    campaigning for the LIDER party in the lead up to the same
    Guatemalan elections described in the 2017 report.            It therefore
    cannot be said that the 2017 report's assertion that the 2015
    elections were "generally free and fair" evidences a fundamental
    change that negates Mendez's fear of political violence given that
    Mendez was persecuted for his political opinion around that time.
    Accordingly, we find the BIA's interpretation of the 2017 report's
    statement unsupported by substantial evidence.
    Seeing no way to read the 2017 report as "convincingly
    demonstrat[ing] material changes in [political] conditions that
    affect the specific circumstances of [Mendez's] claim," Dahal
    v. Barr,     
    931 F.3d 15
    ,     19    (1st   Cir.    2019)     (quoting
    - 16 -
    Palma-Mazariegos, 
    428 F.3d at 36
    ), we find that the 2017 report,
    alone, is not substantial evidence that changed country conditions
    have    eliminated       the      objective       basis    for    Mendez's     fear.
    Accordingly, the BIA's conclusion -- that since Mendez departed
    Guatemala in January 2015, fundamental changes to the conditions
    there   have     negated    the     objective      basis    for    his    particular
    fear -- is not supported by substantial evidence.
    ii.     Mendez's Testimony
    Apart from the 2017 report, the IJ and BIA also referred
    to the disbandment of LIDER and the lack of harm to Mendez's
    remaining family to bolster their conclusions that the conditions
    in Guatemala no longer support a presumption of fear.                         Mendez
    argues that these facts are of no legal significance to his claims
    and that the BIA's reliance constitutes legal error.                      We agree.
    We   begin     with    the    disbandment      of    LIDER.     The    BIA
    considered LIDER's dissolution to be evidence "that the conditions
    in Guatemala [had] changed dramatically since [Mendez] departed
    in 2015."      But Mendez presented the persecution he suffered in
    terms of his opposition to UNE, not his membership in LIDER.                      This
    formulation was adopted by the IJ, who held that Mendez had
    suffered    past     persecution          on   account      of    his     "political
    opinion . . . against the corrupt political party in power in his
    region."    We therefore fail to see how the disbandment of the
    LIDER party directly bears on the well-foundedness of Mendez's
    - 17 -
    fear of persecution at the hands of UNE -- particularly given
    Mendez's        credible   testimony    that    he   may    engage     in    public
    opposition to UNE if returned.              Considering that DHS bears the
    burden     to     prove    how   changed    conditions     undermine        Mendez's
    presumptive fear, we find that the fact of LIDER's disbandment is
    of insufficient consequence.7
    We turn next to UNE's treatment of Mendez's family.                  The
    fact that members of Mendez's immediate family have continued to
    reside in Guatemala unharmed is inconsequential unless the record
    supports a finding that the lack of harm to Mendez's family in
    Guatemala -- either alone or combined with the content of the
    country conditions report -- undermines the particular basis for
    Mendez's presumptively well-founded fear.                 Having found nothing
    in the record to support such an inference, we conclude that the
    BIA erred.
    In Mendez's case, the fact that UNE has not persecuted
    his   family      in   Guatemala    bears   little   on    whether     UNE     would
    persecute Mendez himself if returned.            Assertions about remaining
    family members are rarely probative as rebuttal evidence where,
    as here, a petitioner's fear is presumptively well-founded and it
    7Mendez also contends that the BIA wrongly assumed the LIDER
    party had disbanded due to dwindling support or other internally
    driven factors. We need not reach this argument where the factual
    record on this question is sparse, and the formal status of LIDER
    in Guatemala bears little on our analysis.
    - 18 -
    is DHS’s burden to prove otherwise.          See Dahal, 
    931 F.3d at 21
    (finding lack of harm to petitioner's family after petitioner fled
    to be "of limited significance" to the calculus of whether changed
    circumstances had negated petitioner's particular fear).             Because
    of this burden shift, it is only when the record shows that a
    change in country conditions was accompanied by a corresponding
    change to the treatment of family members that this kind of
    information can favor rebuttal.         See Yatskin v. I.N.S., 
    255 F.3d 5
    , 10-11 (1st Cir. 2001) (considering lack of harm to remaining
    family in changed conditions calculus where "[a]fter testifying
    that his family had suffered retribution for his [anti-communist]
    political    actions,    [petitioner]    admitted    that   they    had   not
    experienced any problems" since the fall of the Soviet Union).
    Even then, it is "entitled to weight in the decisional calculus
    only where the family members are similarly situated" to the
    petitioner.       Morales-Morales v. Sessions, 
    857 F.3d 130
    , 134 n.1
    (1st Cir. 2017) (cleaned up); see Nesimi v. Gonzales, 
    233 F. App'x 11
    ,   14   (1st   Cir.   2007)   (per   curiam)   (unpublished     decision)
    (finding safety of remaining family in Albania supported DHS's
    rebuttal burden where "a brother active in the same political
    party with which [petitioner] was involved" remained without
    persecution).
    In other words, to be probative of whether circumstances
    have changed in relation to the petitioner's well-founded fear,
    - 19 -
    the family members must possess, or be otherwise associated with,
    the protected characteristic on account of which the petitioner
    was persecuted.8      We see no such overlap here where the record
    contains     no   evidence   that   Mendez's   family   in   Guatemala   was
    politically active,9 let alone openly expressing opposition to
    UNE.       In light of this, the lack of harm to remaining family
    Unlike this case, nearly all the cases that DHS cites to
    8
    in an attempt to counter this proposition lack findings of past
    persecution and, therefore, are reviewed under a framework where
    the noncitizen bore the burden of establishing a well-founded
    fear. See Cabas v. Holder, 
    695 F.3d 169
     (1st Cir. 2012); Sihombing
    v. Holder, 
    581 F.3d 41
     (1st Cir. 2009); Rashad v. Mukasey, 
    554 F.3d 1
     (1st Cir. 2009); Touch v. Holder, 
    568 F.3d 32
     (1st Cir.
    2009); Jamal v. Mukasey, 
    531 F.3d 60
     (1st Cir. 2008); Guzman
    v. I.N.S., 
    327 F.3d 11
     (1st Cir. 2003); Chan v. Ashcroft, 
    93 F. App'x 247
    , 252(1st Cir. 2004) (unpublished decision). To the
    extent DHS cites to cases where this court -- in considering
    whether DHS met its rebuttal burden -- has relied on the safety
    of remaining family members without requiring evidence that those
    family members shared or were associated with the petitioner's
    political views, we do not find them persuasive.
    First, those cases antecede our decision in Dahal, which
    clarified that the treatment of remaining family members is
    relevant to the rebuttal analysis only where the family members
    are similarly situated to the petitioner. 
    931 F.3d at 21
    . Second,
    even setting Dahal aside, where we have previously referred to
    the safety of remaining family members in this context, it has
    been to reinforce an independently supported finding of changed
    country conditions. See Hasan v. Holder, 
    673 F.3d 26
     (1st Cir.
    2012); Nesimi, 233 F. App'x at 14; Yatskin, 
    255 F.3d at 10-11
    .
    Accordingly, the experience of those family members was not given
    determinative weight.
    In fact, the only politically active family member Mendez
    9
    referenced in his testimony was his brother-in-law, Armando, who
    had been campaigning with Mendez during the relevant incidents
    with UNE members. Armando's body was found with a gunshot wound
    to his chest in December 2014. Mendez testified that he believed
    UNE members had killed Armando.
    - 20 -
    should not have weighed into the BIA's assessment of whether
    conditions in Guatemala had changed in relation to Mendez's
    particular fear.
    The BIA and IJ also considered that Mendez "has not been
    threatened since the last election and no one has contacted or
    threatened [his] family in Guatemala on his behalf since he fled
    the   country     in   2015"   as   further   evidence   that   conditions
    underlying Mendez's fear had changed.          But we find nothing in the
    record to suggest that UNE had the desire or ability to either
    contact Mendez in the United States or intimidate his family in
    Guatemala while he resided in the United States.         And, regardless,
    where the burden rests with DHS to establish changed country
    conditions, Mendez need not make an affirmative showing that UNE
    continues to target him or his family while Mendez is residing in
    the United States.      Accordingly, to the extent that the BIA relied
    on these facts, it did so in error.
    To summarize, the 2017 report and the testimony from
    Mendez   do    not -- together      or   independently -- establish   that
    changes in Guatemala have fundamentally altered the specific
    conditions that gave rise to Mendez's substantiated claim of
    political persecution.         Accordingly, the BIA's conclusion that
    DHS rebutted Mendez's presumption of well-founded fear is not
    supported by substantial evidence.             We therefore find Mendez
    statutorily eligible for asylum.           See Fergiste, 
    138 F.3d at 19
    .
    - 21 -
    Because asylum is a discretionary form of relief, we remand to
    the agency for further proceedings before the IJ to determine
    whether to grant Mendez's qualifying application for asylum.                   See
    
    id. at 19-20
    .
    2.      Past Persecution - Particular Social Group
    In his petition, Mendez also argues that the BIA erred
    in affirming the IJ's denial of his independent claim for asylum
    based on persecution for his membership in the particular social
    group of males of indigenous ancestry who are politically active
    in Guatemala. Having found Mendez statutorily eligible for asylum
    on political opinion grounds, we need not reach this issue.
    B.        Withholding of Removal
    Next,    we   turn        to   Mendez's   alternative   request      for
    withholding of removal pursuant to 
    8 U.S.C. § 1231
    (b)(3).                    To be
    entitled to withholding of removal, Mendez must establish that
    his "life or freedom would be threatened in [Guatemala] on account
    of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social
    group, or political opinion."               
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.16
    (b).     To meet
    this burden, Mendez "must demonstrate a 'clear probability' of
    persecution,    which     is    a    more     stringent   standard    than     the
    'well-founded fear of persecution' that determines an applicant's
    eligibility for asylum."        Dahal, 
    931 F.3d at 22
     (quoting Fergiste,
    
    138 F.3d at 20
    ).          But if a          petitioner makes   that    showing,
    withholding of removal becomes mandatory unless the petitioner is
    - 22 -
    statutorily barred from the relief.             I.N.S. v. Aguirre-Aguirre,
    
    526 U.S. 415
    , 420 (1999); 
    8 U.S.C. § 1231
    (b)(3).
    Here, Mendez's withholding claim mirrors his asylum
    claim.     As with asylum, a finding of past persecution in the
    withholding context triggers a presumption of a clear probability
    that the applicant's "life or freedom would be threatened in the
    future,"    thereby   entitling   them     to    withholding   of   removal.
    
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.16
    (b)(1)(i).       "To rebut that presumption, [DHS]
    bears the burden to prove by a preponderance of the evidence that
    country conditions have changed such that it is no longer more
    likely   than   not   that   [Mendez]'s     life    or   freedom    would    be
    threatened if he returned to [Guatemala]."               Dahal, 
    931 F.3d at 22
    .
    Given the IJ's unchallenged finding of past persecution,
    we presume that Mendez's life or freedom would be threatened if
    he were returned to Guatemala.       And, for the reasons set out in
    our discussion of Mendez's asylum claim, DHS failed to meet its
    rebuttal burden.      The evidence of changed country conditions put
    forth by DHS does not bear on the particular threats to Mendez's
    life or freedom that form the basis of his fear of return.
    Accordingly, based on the evidence before us, it appears Mendez
    has established he is entitled to withholding of removal.                   But
    because neither the IJ nor the BIA confronted the merits of
    Mendez's withholding claim -- having denied the claim only on the
    - 23 -
    erroneous conclusion that Mendez failed to make the less onerous
    showing required for asylum -- we vacate and remand to the IJ to
    assess the evidence in the first instance.
    C.     CAT Relief
    Finally, Mendez argues that the BIA's denial of his
    application for CAT protection is not supported by substantial
    evidence.       To obtain relief under CAT, Mendez "must prove by
    objective evidence 'that it is more likely than not that he will
    be tortured if he is [removed].'"                     
    Id. at 23
     (quoting Martinez
    v. Holder, 
    734 F.3d 105
    , 110 (1st Cir. 2013)).                    Here, the BIA, in
    affirming the IJ, concluded that Mendez failed to "establish[]
    through record evidence that it is more likely than not that he
    would be tortured by, or at the instigation of, or with the consent
    or acquiescence . . . of a public official in Guatemala upon his
    return."       Mendez maintains that the BIA and IJ erred by finding
    his past persecution fell short of torture.                       We disagree with
    Mendez.        The   record   shows       that     the   past   persecution   Mendez
    suffered       consisted      of        death     threats,      intimidation,       and
    non-life-threatening physical violence. The BIA's conclusion that
    these harms fell short of torture is supported by substantial
    evidence.      We therefore discern no error.
    V.     Conclusion
    For the foregoing reasons, we grant the petition for
    review    as    to   Mendez's      claims       for   asylum    and   withholding    of
    - 24 -
    removal.   We deny the petition as to Mendez's claim for CAT
    protection.   We accordingly affirm the denial of Mendez's CAT
    claim, vacate the denials of Mendez's political opinion-based
    asylum and withholding of removal claims, and remand to the IJ
    for further proceedings consistent with this opinion.
    - 25 -