United States v. Vazquez-Rijos ( 2024 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    Nos. 19-1305
    19-1312
    19-1315
    20-1603
    20-1604
    20-1920
    20-1951
    21-1098
    21-1100
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Appellee,
    v.
    AUREA VÁZQUEZ RIJOS, a/k/a Beatriz Vázquez, a/k/a Aurea
    Dominicci; MARCIA VÁZQUEZ RIJOS; and JOSÉ FERRER SOSA,
    Defendants, Appellants.
    APPEALS FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF PUERTO RICO
    [Hon. Daniel R. Domínguez, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Barron, Chief Judge,
    Lipez and Thompson, Circuit Judges.
    Lydia Lizarribar Masini for appellant Aurea Vázquez Rijos.
    Carlos M. Sánchez La Costa for appellant Marcia Aurea Vázquez
    Rijos.
    José R. Olmo Rodríguez for appellant José Ferrer Sosa.
    Sofia M. Vickery, Attorney, Appellate Section, Criminal
    Division, United States Department of Justice, with whom W. Stephen
    Muldrow, United States Attorney, Mariana E. Bauzá Almonte,
    Assistant United States Attorney, Chief, Appellate Division, José
    A. Ruiz Santiago, Assistant United States Attorney, Jenifer Yois
    Hernández, Assistant United States Attorney, Kenneth A. Polite,
    Jr., Assistant Attorney General, and Lisa H. Miller, Deputy
    Assistant Attorney General, were on brief, for appellee.
    July 31, 2024
    THOMPSON, Circuit Judge.          Old San Juan, September 22,
    2005, around midnight.           Husband and wife Adam Anhang Uster (a
    Canadian entrepreneur) and Aurea Vázquez Rijos (a former "Miss
    Puerto Rico Petite") were walking down the cobbled streets of
    Puerto Rico's capital city after leaving a trendy bistro.                  A man
    emerged from the shadows.         "This is a robbery," he said in English.
    Adam punched him in the face and shoved Aurea away, screaming "Run,
    Baby, run."       She did not, however.           And the mugger stabbed and
    beat Adam to death.         Turning to Aurea, the man then hit her in the
    head.     But sensing others' eyes now on him, he took off.1
    In the years after that, a Puerto Rico jury would convict
    an innocent person of the murder.                He would later win release,
    thankfully.        Meanwhile     private   investigators     hired   by    Adam's
    family would traipse all over (including Europe) looking for
    helpful evidence.          And after plenty of twists and turns, police
    would arrest Aurea, Aurea's sister Marcia Vázquez Rijos, and
    Marcia's boyfriend José Ferrer Sosa on federal murder-for-hire
    charges    —    one   of   the   twists    and    turns   involved   a    complex
    extradition process to retrieve Aurea from Spain, a country she
    had fled to.2
    1   Our opinion will be an easier read if we sometimes use first
    names.    We mean no disrespect.
    2By agreement with Spain the government promised to try Aurea
    under the original indictment.     Count one of that indictment
    - 3 -
    The   government's       trial    case    included     lots    of
    incriminating particulars.        Like how six months before the murder
    Adam and Aurea signed a prenup that would pay her about $8 million
    if he died but only $3,500 a month for 36 months (unless she
    remarried) if they divorced within a year.            Like how Aurea also
    came to believe that she was "better off" under the prenup with
    Adam "dead than alive" and asked someone if he knew a hitman who
    could kill Adam.       Like how 12 hours before the murder Adam told
    Aurea that he wanted a divorce, to which she replied, "I am not
    going to let you go that easy."        And like how Aurea's description
    of   the    attacker   differed     from    others'   and   how   she   acted
    uncooperatively with police.
    The government's biggest witness was probably Alex Pabón
    Colon.     Nicknamed "El Loco" (Spanish for "The Crazy One"), Pabón
    (as we will call him, per Spanish naming customs we follow for the
    rest of the opinion) testified that Aurea, Marcia, and José had
    hired him to kill Adam and hurt Aurea — while making it all look
    like a robbery gone wrong.        The defense pushed back with questions
    charged her with conspiring to commit murder for hire resulting in
    Adam's death.   Count two charged her with use of an interstate
    facility to commit murder for hire. The government tried Marcia
    and José under a second superseding indictment. Count one of that
    indictment accused them of conspiring to commit murder resulting
    in Adam's death.
    - 4 -
    designed to highlight Pabón's history of mental instability (among
    other efforts).
    A federal jury eventually convicted Aurea of murder for
    hire, and her, Marcia, and José of conspiring to commit murder for
    hire.     Each got life behind bars.
    The trio now appeal, raising a dizzying array of issues
    spanning the trial, sentencing, and post-trial phases.         We address
    the claims one by one below, filling in details needed to put
    things into workable perspective.      At the end of it all, however,
    we affirm across the board.
    I
    Sufficiency of the Evidence
    Marcia and José say that the government did not present
    enough evidence to support their conspiracy-to-commit-murder-for-
    hire convictions.3
    We assess their preserved challenges de novo, taking all
    the   evidence   —   including   credibility   choices   and   reasonable
    inferences — in the light most favorable to the prosecution and
    asking whether a sensible jury could find the crime's essential
    elements proven beyond a reasonable doubt.          See, e.g., United
    3We start like this because a winning sufficiency argument
    would compel us to vacate the challenged conviction and block any
    retrial for the same offense under the Fifth Amendment's Double
    Jeopardy Clause.   See United States v. Raymundí-Hernández, 
    984 F.3d 127
    , 138 (1st Cir. 2020).
    - 5 -
    States v. Maldonado-Peña, 
    4 F.4th 1
    , 50 (1st Cir. 2021).          And to
    simplify    slightly   (but   without   affecting   our   analysis),   the
    statute of conviction punishes anyone "[w]ho[] travels in or causes
    another . . . to use . . . any facility of interstate . . . commerce
    . . . with the intent that a murder be committed" for hire, "or
    who conspires to do so."       See 
    18 U.S.C. § 1958
    (a).4     "As used in
    this section . . . 'facility of interstate . . . commerce' includes
    means of transportation and communication."         See 
    id.
     § 1958(b)(2).
    A
    Marcia's Arguments
    Marcia first argues that the conspiracy had to have ended
    with Adam's death and so the evidence against her did not suffice
    4   The statute reads in full:
    Whoever   travels   in   or   causes   another
    (including the intended victim) to travel in
    interstate or foreign commerce, or uses or
    causes another (including the intended victim)
    to use the mail or any facility of interstate
    or foreign commerce, with intent that a murder
    be committed in violation of the laws of any
    State or the United States as consideration
    for the receipt of, or as consideration for a
    promise or agreement to pay, anything of
    pecuniary value, or who conspires to do so,
    shall be fined under this title or imprisoned
    for not more than ten years, or both; and if
    personal injury results, shall be fined under
    this title or imprisoned for not more than
    twenty years, or both; and if death results,
    shall   be   punished   by   death   or   life
    imprisonment, or shall be fined not more than
    $250,000, or both.
    - 6 -
    because the government focused on "acts and statements" after his
    passing.   Consistent with the adage that "'the simplest'" way to
    decide an issue "is often 'best,'" see Calvary Chapel of Bangor v.
    Mills, 
    52 F.4th 40
    , 48 n.5 (1st Cir. 2022) (quoting United States
    v. Cruz-Ramos, 
    987 F.3d 27
    , 39 (1st Cir. 2021)), we bypass the
    dispute about the conspiracy's precise end date because ample
    evidence showed her active participation from the beginning.
    Asked directly by a prosecutor about "[w]ho hired you to
    commit the murder?" Pabón answered categorically, "Marcia . . . ,
    Aurea . . . , and José."   And he identified all three in open court
    too.
    Pabón's testimony painted a grim picture. A dope dealer,
    Pabón met with "clients" at The Pink Skirt — a nightclub Adam had
    bought Aurea.   José worked there as a cook.     And he was one of
    Pabón's drug clients as well.    So were Aurea and Marcia.   The day
    before Adam died, Pabón spent time with Aurea, Marcia, and José at
    The Pink Skirt and then at an eatery called El Hamburger (they
    drove there in Aurea's Porsche SUV).    They agreed that Pabón would
    find a gun, kill Adam after Adam had dinner with Aurea, make the
    murder look like a robbery by taking Adam's wallet and hurting
    Aurea, and later get $3 million from Aurea (part of the money she
    expected to get from Adam's estate).
    - 7 -
    All of this undercuts Marcia's claim that the evidence
    showed only her "mere presence" at a conspiratorial event.               She is
    right that mere presence cannot establish knowing participation in
    a conspiracy.       See, e.g., United States v. Munyenyezi, 
    781 F.3d 532
    , 538 (1st Cir. 2015).        But Pabón's fingering her as one of the
    three persons who hired him to kill Adam shows she was culpably
    present, not merely present.        See United States v. Echeverri, 
    982 F.2d 675
    , 678 (1st Cir. 1993) (explaining that "a defendant's 'mere
    presence' argument will fail in situations where the 'mere' is
    lacking").    If more were needed — and we do not think that it is
    — the jury could "rely on [the] common[-]sense . . . infer[ence]
    that criminal conspirators do not involve innocent persons at
    critical stages of a" crime's planning.              See United States v.
    Llinas, 
    373 F.3d 26
    , 32 (1st Cir. 2004) (citation omitted).
    Marcia    responds    by     attacking   Pabón's       credibility,
    arguing    that     his   grand-jury     testimony   indicated       that   the
    conversation at The Pink Skirt centered on just "beating" Adam and
    that she did not go to El Hamburger.           But her attorney explored
    the inconsistency theme with Pabón during cross-examination —
    unsuccessfully it turns out, because the jury convicted her anyway.
    And   we   cannot    reweigh   witness    credibility   on     a   sufficiency
    challenge.    See, e.g., United States v. Acosta-Colón, 
    741 F.3d 179
    , 191 (1st Cir. 2013).
    - 8 -
    Perhaps anticipating this critique, Marcia calls Pabón's
    testimony uncorroborated as to her role.          But our caselaw says
    that "the uncorroborated testimony of a single cooperating witness
    may be sufficient to support a conviction, so long as the testimony
    is not facially incredible."         See United States v. Velazquez-
    Fontanez, 
    6 F.4th 205
    , 215 (1st Cir. 2021).         And Marcia makes no
    convincing   argument   that   Pabón's     testimony     falls   into   that
    facially-incredible     category    for    sufficiency    purposes,     thus
    waiving whatever argument she may have had.       See Rodríguez v. Mun.
    of San Juan, 
    659 F.3d 168
    , 175 (1st Cir. 2011).5
    B
    José's Arguments
    Pabón named José as one of his hirers in this murder-
    for-hire crime.   He gave José props for getting his payment bumped
    from $2 million to $3 million.       And he explained how José called
    him on the night of the murder, met up with him in Old San Juan,
    pointed out the restaurant where Adam and Aurea were, and told him
    to wait for them to come out.         Questioning Pabón's memory and
    calling his answers "unreliable" and "unresponsive" (along with
    other pejoratives), José suggests that the jury should not have
    5 Marcia's very brief suggestion that no evidence showed she
    "knew . . . any cars or phones would be used with the required
    intent to murder" is too underdeveloped for us to consider. See,
    e.g., United States v. Zannino, 
    895 F.2d 1
    , 17 (1st Cir. 1990).
    - 9 -
    believed that incriminating account.     What he is doing though is
    picking a credibility fight — for example, José writes that Pabón
    "testified" at trial that he (Pabón) did not have an affair with
    Aurea (a person he was starstruck over), yet he admitted telling
    his friends and also the grand jury that he had had sex with her.
    José's lawyer, however, delved into these areas during cross-
    examination — to no avail, because the jury still found José
    guilty.     And such a routine credibility call is for the jurors,
    with us required to assume on sufficiency review that they called
    it in the government's favor.     See, e.g., Acosta-Colón, 
    741 F.3d at 191
    .
    Unlike Marcia, José labels Pabón's testimony "facially
    incredible."    But he offers no persuasive explanation for why this
    is so.    And "developing a sustained argument out of . . . legal
    precedents is a litigant's job, not ours."          Díaz-Alarcón   v.
    Flández-Marcel, 
    944 F.3d 303
    , 313 (1st Cir. 2019) (quotation marks
    omitted).
    Relying mostly on his own trial testimony, José next
    claims that "[s]ubstantial evidence" created reasonable doubt
    about his guilt.     But because he took the stand, the jury could
    disbelieve his testimony that he did not hire Pabón to murder Adam.
    See United States v. Iossifov, 
    45 F.4th 899
    , 916 (6th Cir. 2022);
    United States v. Williams, 
    390 F.3d 1319
    , 1325-26 (11th Cir. 2004).
    - 10 -
    Also and critically, we need not rule "that no verdict other than
    . . . guilty . . . could sensibly be reached, but must only be
    satisfied that the verdict finds support in a plausible rendition
    of the record." See United States v. Liriano, 
    761 F.3d 131
    , 135
    (1st Cir. 2014) (quotation marks omitted) — a standard met here.
    José also offers two sufficiency arguments that target
    the interstate-commerce element for his conviction.                     First he
    claims that the government had to — but did not — show that a
    defendant used an interstate-commerce facility (e.g., an auto or
    a phone) across borders.          While he preserved that argument by
    raising it in the district court, it fails here as it did there.
    The murder-for-hire statute once barred the use of a "facility in
    interstate . . . commerce."       See United States v. Fisher, 
    494 F.3d 5
    , 9 (1st Cir. 2007) (quoting statute).               But a 2004 amendment
    changed   "facility      in   interstate      commerce"      to     "facility   of
    interstate . . . commerce."            See 
    id. at 10
     (quoting statute and
    amendment).       And devastating to José's position, that change
    codified the prevailing view that "a showing of intrastate usage
    of a requisite facility, such as a telephone, suffices."                   See 
    id.
    (emphasis added).       Second — citing no authority — José also argues
    that   vehicles    on   the   island    of   Puerto   Rico    are    per   se   not
    facilities of interstate or foreign commerce because Puerto Rico
    is an island unto itself.        As the government rightly points out,
    - 11 -
    however, he did not press this claim below — thus making it
    reviewable (if at all) only for plain error.    See United States v.
    Rivera-Rivera, 
    555 F.3d 277
    , 285 (1st Cir. 2009).     But because he
    neither supports this claim nor tries to show plain error, he
    waived it.    See United States v. Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d 33
    ,
    49 n.15 (1st Cir. 2019).
    II
    Severance
    Raising a preserved claim, Marcia and José next contend
    that the judge should have severed their trials from Aurea's.
    Defendants may be tried together "if they are alleged to
    have participated in the same act or transaction."     Fed. R. Crim.
    P. 8(b).     Such trials serve important interests, like easing the
    burdens on victims, witnesses, and jurors, shrinking the risk of
    inconsistent verdicts, and conserving scarce judge time.         See
    Zafiro v. United States, 
    506 U.S. 534
    , 537 (1993); United States
    v. Josleyn, 
    99 F.3d 1182
    , 1188 (1st Cir. 1996).     So "[t]here is a
    preference in the federal system for joint trials of defendants
    who are indicted together," Zafiro, 
    506 U.S. at
    537 — a preference
    that is especially strong in conspiracy cases, United States v.
    Floyd, 
    740 F.3d 22
    , 36 (1st Cir. 2014).
    A preference of course is not an unwavering command.
    See Fed. R. Crim. P. 14(a) (declaring that "[i]f the joinder of
    . . . defendants in an indictment . . . appears to prejudice a
    - 12 -
    defendant . . . , the court may . . . sever the defendants'
    trial[], or provide other relief that justice requires").                 But the
    exceptions to it are few and far between.               See United States v.
    Houlihan, 
    92 F.3d 1271
    , 1295-96 (1st Cir. 1996). Severance-seeking
    "defendant[s]    must   demonstrate     extreme     prejudice,     such      as    by
    showing a 'serious risk that a joint trial would compromise a
    specific trial right,' or would 'prevent the jury from making a
    reliable     judgment   about   guilt   or    innocence.'"       
    Id. at 1295
    (emphasis added and quoting Zafiro, 
    506 U.S. at 539
    ).              And even if
    the risk of prejudice is high, they must show that severance is
    the proper cure — usually meaning that jury instructions or some
    other remedy short of severance will not work.                See Zafiro, 
    506 U.S. at 539
    .     Making matters more difficult for Marcia and José,
    we review their challenge to the judge's severance refusal only
    for a "manifest abuse of discretion" — knowing that even in "gray
    area[s]"     where   "reasonable    people     might    disagree      about       the
    advisability of severance," a severance fight normally will be
    "won or lost in the district court."             See Houlihan, 
    92 F.3d at 1296
     (quotation marks omitted).
    Measured   against    these     benchmarks,     Marcia    and    José
    cannot prevail.      Separate trials in a case like this — where the
    focus is on the interconnected relationships among defendants —
    would   be   repetitive,    forcing     witnesses      to   provide    the    same
    - 13 -
    testimony again and again, and placing incredible demands on every
    participant in the judicial system (as described above).                                 Hoping
    to counter this point, Marcia and José argue that the joint trial
    caused    spillover       or    guilt-by-association                 prejudice      based      on
    certain testimony — including about Aurea's hitman search, civil
    suit against Adam's parents, and fleeing to avoid capture.                                     We
    doubt that this is the kind of extreme prejudice required to win
    reversal.   See, e.g., United States v. DeCologero, 
    530 F.3d 36
    , 54
    (1st Cir. 2008) (holding in a severance-denial case that evidence
    of one defendant's murder of a witness was relevant because it
    "tended    to    prove    the        existence         and   nature      of   the    .     .   .
    conspiracy"). Certainly anything that ups the chance of conviction
    "prejudices" defendants in the word's usual sense.                            But severance
    law does not use "prejudice" like that.                        Which is why — despite
    what   Marcia     and    José        imply    —   it    does    not     matter      that    the
    government's case against Aurea may have been stronger than against
    them, or that they may have gotten off at trials separate from
    Aurea's.    See Zafiro, 
    506 U.S. at 540
    ; see also United States v.
    O'Bryant, 
    998 F.2d 21
    , 26 (1st Cir. 1993).                           Regardless, whatever
    prejudice       existed        got     scotched         by     the     judge's      explicit
    instructions that the jury consider the case against each defendant
    - 14 -
    separately and individually.6       See, e.g., Houlihan, 
    92 F.3d at 1296
    .     We presume that juries follow such directives.      See, e.g.,
    United States v. Chisholm, 
    940 F.3d 119
    , 129 (1st Cir. 2019).         And
    neither     Marcia   nor   José   has      persuasively   rebutted   that
    presumption.     So we cannot say the judge manifestly abused his
    discretion.
    III
    Evidentiary Matters
    Aurea, Marcia, and José make a series of evidentiary
    arguments.
    6   The instruction read:
    Counts are charged against each of the
    defendants    in    each    count   of    their
    corresponding indictment. Each count, and the
    evidence   pertaining    to   it,   should   be
    considered separately as to each defendant.
    The fact that you may find guilty or not guilty
    on one count should not control your verdict
    on another count as to each defendant. You
    must provide separate consideration to the
    evidence as to each count and as to each
    defendant. Aurea Vazquez-Rijos is charged as
    to two counts in the original Indictment. Co-
    defendants Marcia Vazquez-Rijos and Jose
    Ferrer-Sosa are charged as to one count in the
    Second Superseding Indictment.        You must
    provide separate consideration as to each
    defendant in the indictment filed against
    him/her.
    The judge also gave separate limiting instructions for certain
    categories of evidence. Consider, as a for-instance, his telling
    the jurors that neither Marcia nor José was "involved" with the
    hitman "testimony."
    - 15 -
    A
    Flight Evidence
    Aurea claims that the judge erred by admitting "flight
    evidence" to show her "consciousness of guilt."
    That evidence — by way of background — included some of
    the following.     In June 2006 — not long after Adam's murder and a
    few months after police arrested a man named Jonathan Roman Rivera
    for the crime — Aurea moved to Italy.           She had very little money.
    She started going by the name "Aurea Dominicci."            And she tried to
    make a living as a tour guide.          Over the next year she sued Adam's
    parents for a piece of his estate, travelled to Puerto Rico for a
    deposition   in   that   case,    and    returned   to   Italy.   Roman    got
    convicted around then too.         And Aurea declined to come back for
    another deposition in her suit.           In spring 2008 a federal probe
    into Adam's murder led to Roman's release, Pabón's arrest, and
    Pabón's and Aurea's indictment on murder-for-hire-related charges
    (Marcia and José would be indicted years later).                  Pabón pled
    guilty. Aurea promised to voluntarily return to the United States.
    She never would.      Instead she began faking documents to prove she
    was Jewish in the hopes of finding refuge in Israel (she had asked
    a legal expert whether "the law in Israel" would "protect" her
    "[i]f   there   was   ever   an   order    of   extradition   with   a   death
    - 16 -
    sentence").     But authorities arrested her in Spain in June 2013.
    And two years later she got extradited back to Puerto Rico.7
    Aurea offers innocent explanations for her moves, saying
    for example that she went overseas to start a new life and to
    protect herself from Adam's father (whom she alleges had sicced
    private investigators on her as part of his plan to avenge his
    son's death).     From there she argues that the government did not
    (and here we quote a case she quotes) "present sufficient extrinsic
    evidence of guilt to support an inference that [her] flight was
    not merely an episode of normal travel but, rather, the product of
    a guilty conscience related to the crime alleged."       See United
    States v. Benedetti, 
    433 F.3d 111
    , 116 (1st Cir. 2005) (stressing
    that "[b]ecause flight may be consistent with innocence as easily
    as with guilt, this precursor helps ensure that a jury does not
    infer guilt based solely on a defendant's meanderings").    And she
    7   The judge (capitalization altered) told the jurors that
    intentional flight by Aurea . . . may be
    considered by you in light of all the other
    evidence in the case. The burden is upon the
    government to prove intentional flight.
    Intentional flight after Aurea . . . was
    accused of a crime is not alone sufficient to
    conclude that she is guilty.
    The judge added that "[f]light does not create a presumption of
    guilt," that "feelings of guilt, which are present in many innocent
    people, do not necessarily reflect actual guilt," and that "you
    should consider there may be reasons for Aurea['s] . . . actions
    that are fully consistent with innocence."
    - 17 -
    implies that the judge should have kept the flight evidence out
    under Fed. R. Evid. 403 — a rule that says that a court may exclude
    "relevant"   evidence   "if    its    probative   value   is   substantially
    outweighed by a danger of unfair prejudice."
    We need not decide whether Aurea has shown error because
    even if she has (which we in no way intimate) any error was
    harmless.    Just consider some of the other evidence against her
    besides the flight evidence.         Pabón credibly testified that Aurea
    had hired him to kill Adam.      Another person testified that she had
    said she was "better off" under the prenup "with [Adam] dead than
    alive" and had asked if he knew a hitman who could "do the job"
    for her.     And an officer testified that her description of the
    attacker clashed with those given by other witnesses (suggesting
    she made things up to cover her crime) and that she did not fully
    cooperate    with   police     (indicating    a    desire      to   keep   the
    constabularies at bay).       So by our lights, the judge's decision to
    admit the flight evidence did not substantially affect the jury's
    verdict — which makes his decision (at worst) harmless error. See,
    e.g., United States v. Galíndez, 
    999 F.3d 60
    , 64 (1st Cir. 2021)
    (discussing the standard).
    - 18 -
    B
    Email Evidence
    Marcia   and   José     —   sometimes    separately,    sometimes
    together — challenge the judge's admission of several emails.8
    1
    June 2007 Email
    An email from Marcia to Aurea — sent in June 2007 — said
    she (Marcia) needed more money for José and did not "want to have
    him as an enemy because he knows a lot about me."          "Mommy doesn't
    want me to even see him," Marcia added (emphasis ours), "because
    supposedly he is a violent crazy person."
    José calls the italicized phrase excludable hearsay
    because (his argument goes) "it was not Marcia['s] . . . statement
    but her mother's[,] . . . and her mother . . . did not testify at
    trial." But his lawyer conceded during a trial sidebar that Marcia
    made the violent-and-crazy point, not her mother.          So José waived
    the argument that someone other than Marcia made the statement.
    See United States v. Walker, 
    538 F.3d 21
    , 23 (1st Cir. 2008).             He
    next says that if Marcia made the statement, it came (in his view
    at   least)   "after     the     conspiracy"      and   thus     constituted
    "inadmissible hearsay" (as a reminder, the defendants theorize
    8 To the extent the emails have grammatical and syntactical
    errors, we still quote them as-is because using "[sic]" would be
    too distracting and might change their meaning.
    - 19 -
    that the conspiracy ended with Adam's death).                But his trial
    attorney    objected   to   the   statement   as    forbidden   "character"
    evidence.    And he gives us no persuasive reason not to follow our
    usual rule that "legal theories not raised squarely in the lower
    court cannot be broached for the first time on appeal."                 See
    Teamsters, Chauffeurs, Warehousemen & Helpers Union, Loc. No. 59
    v. Superline Transp. Co., 
    953 F.2d 17
    , 21 (1st Cir. 1992).
    2
    July 2007 Email
    Another email from Marcia to Aurea — sent in July 2007
    — said she (Marcia) was "getting frustrated" but hoped "[t]hat old
    man will pay sooner or later"; worried José, who "was present
    during the good and the bad," would "think that I abandoned him
    and think that we used him"; and warned her (Aurea) to "[b]e
    careful with your back" because "[t]here are a lot of enemies close
    who you owe for a long time, and they are aware of your every
    move."     Aurea responded by email saying she empathized with how
    she (Marcia) and José felt, promised to call José, and noted "we
    are all in the same boat."
    Raising a preserved challenge — thus activating abuse-
    of-discretion review, see United States v. Polanco, 
    634 F.3d 39
    ,
    44 (1st Cir. 2011) — Marcia and José argue that the judge wrongly
    admitted the emails under Evidence Rule 403, which (again) excludes
    evidence    if   its   "unfair"   prejudicial      effects   "substantially
    - 20 -
    outweigh[]"        its    probative     value.       Still     claiming    that    the
    conspiracy ended with Adam's murder in 2005, they call these post-
    murder emails irrelevant.               They then say that "[t]he unfair
    prejudicial damage of these communications after the conspiracy
    ended is that it allows the government through post-murder conduct
    that has nothing to do with [the-murder-for-hire-related] elements
    . . . to convict [them] on speculation."
    Even assuming without granting that Marcia and José are
    right about the conspiracy's end point (the government counters
    that the conspiracy actually ended years later when Aurea's suit
    against Adam's parents ended in defeat in 2011), this does not
    help them.
    A defendant's conduct after the crime's commission can
    be relevant.           Otherwise, for example, a defendant's bid to cover
    up     a    crime's      occurrence    could     never   be    admitted     to    show
    consciousness of guilt — which we know is not true.                       See, e.g.,
    United States v. Sasso, 
    695 F.3d 25
    , 29 (1st Cir. 2012).                          The
    relevance threshold is a small one, "requiring only that the
    evidence have 'any tendency to make a fact more or less probable.'"
    Cruz-Ramos, 987 F.3d at 42 (quoting Fed. R. Evid. 401).                      And the
    disputed evidence cleared it.             Marcia's email touched on efforts
    to get money from Adam's estate (discussing her "frustrat[ion]
    that       old   man    will   pay   sooner    or   later"),    José's    conspiracy
    - 21 -
    involvement (mentioning she "wouldn't want him to think I abandoned
    him and think that we used him"), and the need to pay Pabón (telling
    Aurea to "be careful with your back," adding "[t]here are a lot of
    enemies close who you owe for a long time").     Aurea replied that
    she would call José and that "we are all in the same boat."    From
    that evidence a jury could infer Marcia's and José's conspiracy
    involvement.   See Bielunas v. F/V Misty Dawn, Inc., 
    621 F.3d 72
    ,
    76 (1st Cir. 2010) (noting that "[a] relevancy-based argument is
    usually a tough sell," and adding that "the evidence need not
    definitively resolve a key issue in the case" but "need only move
    the inquire forward to some degree").
    Marcia and José also give us no convincing reason for
    believing that any of this evidence, even if prejudicial, was
    unfairly prejudicial let alone so unfairly prejudicial as to
    substantially outbalance its probative worth.    See In re PHC, Inc.
    S'holder Litig., 
    894 F.3d 419
    , 440 (1st Cir. 2018) (emphasizing
    that "battles over how to strike the balance between probative
    value and unfairly prejudicial effect are usually won or lost in
    the district court").
    It is a pretty "[r]are[]" day when we will "override a
    judge's balancing of relevance and prejudice."    Polanco, 634 F.3d
    - 22 -
    at 44.   And we see no credible basis for "second-guess[ing] the
    judge's discretionary judgment here."9    See 
    id.
    3
    March 2012 Email
    Yet another email from Marcia to Aurea — sent in March
    2012 — noted that their brother said that she (Marcia) and José
    had "PLANNED EVERYTHING" and that she had told him:
    YOU MENTALLY RETARDED ANIMAL DEVIL LUCIFER
    DON'T YOU KNOW THAT THEY ARE RECORDING
    EVERYTHING AND EVERYTHING YOU SAY THEY WILL
    BELIEVE IT AND WE ARE GONNA GET SCREWED BY
    YOUR FAULT LUCIFER.
    Pushing another preserved error claim — again generating
    abuse-of-discretion review, see 
    id.
     — Marcia says that comment by
    her brother was inadmissible hearsay and so had "dubious probative
    value and an exponential high risk of prejudice."     José tries to
    challenge the email's admission too.     But the judge admitted the
    email against Marcia only.      And José develops no spillover-
    prejudice argument keyed to this situation, resulting in waiver.
    See Zannino, 
    895 F.2d at 17
    .
    The judge admitted the brother's statement that Marcia
    and José had "PLANNED EVERYTHING" to provide "context" for Marcia's
    9 José wishes to "adopt" Marcia's arguments about emails
    "between him and [her]," presumably referring to some 2010 emails
    where he asks Marcia and Aurea for money. But Marcia does not
    challenge the 2010 emails.      So we need not consider this
    undeveloped claim. See Zannino, 
    895 F.2d at 17
    .
    - 23 -
    reaction ("DON'T YOU KNOW THAT THEY ARE RECORDING EVERYTHING AND
    EVERYTHING YOU SAY THEY WILL BELIEVE IT AND WE ARE GONNA GET
    SCREWED BY YOUR FAULT LUCIFER") — a reaction that indicates a need
    for a cover up.     Statements offered not for their truth but to
    provide the context of a reply are not hearsay.         See United States
    v. Cruz-Díaz, 
    550 F.3d 169
    , 176-77 (1st Cir. 2008).         And the judge
    told the jury to consider the statements of nonparties in the email
    not "for the truth of the matter, but only to provide context to
    statements   made   by   a   defendant."   See    
    id.
       (concluding   that
    testimony was not hearsay based in part on fairly similar jury
    instructions).
    As a last-gasp argument, Marcia accuses the judge of not
    conducting a "meaningful [Evidence Rule 403] analysis" for this
    email (or any of them, for that matter).         But as reflected in the
    many pages of trial transcript, the judge actively engaged with
    counsel at side bar and carefully considered their objections.
    The judge did enough, seeing how our "great deference" applies
    "even when a judge does not expressly explain the Evidence Rule
    403 balancing process on the record." See United States v. Breton,
    
    740 F.3d 1
    , 14 (1st Cir. 2014).
    IV
    Judicial Bias
    Marcia and José think that the judge displayed bias
    against them — a claim that (a) requires them to show that the
    - 24 -
    judge "gave the appearance of bias" and that the "apparent bias
    seriously prejudiced" them, and (b) requires us to review preserved
    challenges for abuse of discretion only.     See Raymundí-Hernández,
    984 F.3d at 145 (quotation marks omitted).10     They make a number
    of arguments for reversing, all insinuating that the judge showed
    impermissible bias against them by acting like an advocate for the
    prosecution in front of the jury.      We find some arguments waived
    through inadequate briefing, however.    And while always "sensitive
    to a judge's unflagging duty to be impartial," see United States
    v. Caramadre, 
    807 F.3d 359
    , 373 (1st Cir. 2015), we find the other
    arguments are not difference-makers.
    A
    Marcia's and José's Waived Arguments
    We lead with the waived arguments.
    An investigating officer testified that at one point the
    same attorney represented Roman (the originally accused killer)
    and Aurea (before her indictment).     The judge asked him, "So how
    could he be an attorney when Aurea was a victim?      At that time,
    Aurea was a victim, right?"     "Correct," the officer answered.
    Marcia contends that "[t]his intervention showed judicial bias in
    10 José calls these supposed errors "structural" for which
    prejudice is presumed. But his claim "runs head first into our
    precedent which has consistently required proof of 'serious
    prejudice.'" See United States v. Lanza-Vázquez, 
    799 F.3d 134
    ,
    145 (1st Cir. 2015).
    - 25 -
    favor of the prosecution."    Not only does she fail to explain how
    the judge's questions "favor[ed]" the prosecution, but she also
    fails to make a serious-prejudice showing — i.e., she has not shown
    how, "but for" the allegedly improper intervention, "the verdict
    would have been different." See United States v. Rivera-Rodríguez,
    
    761 F.3d 105
    , 112 (1st Cir. 2014).      And that will not do.    See
    Zannino, 
    895 F.2d at 17
    .
    Marcia suggests in passing that the judge should not
    have "presided over the criminal case" because he also "presided
    over Aurea's civil case."     But by making the suggestion without
    any developed rationale, she waived it.    See 
    id.
    José argues that the judge "unfairly undermined" his
    credibility by asking certain questions.    With José on the stand,
    the judge's first contested question clarified whether the "Alex
    El Loco" his lawyer had mentioned in a question was Pabón.      José
    replied that he "later knew him as" Pabón.    He now says that the
    judge's inquiry implied that he (José) "knew [Pabón] very well and
    not only as a drug dealer."    We do not see how.    But José's team
    did not object to this question, as the government notes — without
    any protest from José.     That requires him to show plain error.
    - 26 -
    But this he never even tries to do, thus waiving the argument.
    See Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d at
    49 n.15.
    José also claims that the judge "unfairly" confronted
    him with a police report to refresh his memory.     But the record
    shows that the prosecutor did that, not the judge (when José gave
    a nonresponsive answer to the prosecutor's question about his work
    hours, the judge read him the question again) — something José's
    brief never convincingly takes on.   See Cioffi v. Gilbert Enters.,
    Inc., 
    769 F.3d 90
    , 94 (1st Cir. 2014).
    José contends as well that the judge showed bias by
    letting prosecutors present certain testimony about the murder
    scene, plus photos and a video of Adam's dead body. In his telling,
    prosecutors had no need for any of that because "there was already
    sufficient evidence that [Adam] was dead."   But the government is
    generally allowed "to prove its case by evidence of its own
    choice." See Old Chief v. United States, 
    519 U.S. 172
    , 186 (1997).
    And a judge "is not required to scrub the trial clean of all
    evidence that may have an emotional impact, where the evidence is
    part of the [g]overnment's narrative."   United States v. Morales-
    Aldahondo, 
    524 F.3d 115
    , 120 (1st Cir. 2008) (quotation marks
    omitted).     Yet José cites no on-point cases and develops no
    argument that tests the limits of these maxims.        And (again)
    "developing a sustained argument out of . . . legal precedents" is
    - 27 -
    the party's job.      See Town of Norwood v. FERC, 
    202 F.3d 392
    , 405
    (1st Cir. 2000).
    B
    Marcia's and José's Nonwaived Arguments
    We move next to the nonwaived arguments.
    Marcia and José pan the judge for asking Adam's business
    partner    Roberto   Cacho   Perez    certain    questions   during    Aurea's
    lawyer's     cross-examination.11        Cacho    had   testified     for   the
    government that Aurea "became literally a partner in the business
    through Adam."       The judge asked — without objection — if "[s]he
    became that if he died[.]"           And Cacho replied, "Exactly, if he
    died."     Then — during part of Aurea's lawyer's cross that focused
    on how the partners funded the projects — the judge asked Cacho if
    Aurea had money invested in the business.           He responded that "she
    had no money invested in any project."           "So," the judge said, "she
    has money if [Adam] dies?," to which Cacho said, "Only."              Marcia's
    and José's attorneys objected. But the judge rebuffed them, though
    he later instructed the jurors that "the [c]ourt occasionally asks
    questions of a witness in order to bring out facts not then fully
    covered in the testimony"; that they should "not assume that [the
    court] hold[s] any opinion on the matters to which [the] questions
    11 A real estate developer and investor, Cacho formed a coequal
    partnership with Adam that developed properties in Puerto Rico.
    - 28 -
    are related"; and that "it is you, and you alone, who will
    determine this case, not the [c]ourt."             The judge denied the
    attorneys' motion for a mistrial, concluding that his questions
    clarified Cacho's testimony and that his limiting instruction
    minimized any prejudice.        The judge also later repeated that just-
    quoted instruction in his final charge.
    Marcia and José describe the judge's questions here as
    bombshells, establishing Aurea's motive to murder Adam.                  The
    judge's questions certainly showed — given Cacho's understanding
    of the partnership and the prenup (which he had personal knowledge
    of) — that Aurea had no stake in the business unless Adam died, in
    which case she would inherit a stake.           But the jury already knew
    this — thanks to the unobjected-to testimony from Cacho, who said
    that Adam listed the partnership properties in the prenup, which
    would give Aurea Adam's interest in them on his (Adam's) death.
    See United States v. Espinal-Almeida, 
    699 F.3d 588
    , 608 (1st Cir.
    2012) (noting that the judge's interjections "were relatively
    benign   given   that     the    jury   had   already     heard   testimony"
    establishing the same).          See generally United States v. Cruz-
    Feliciano, 
    786 F.3d 78
    , 84 (1st Cir. 2015) (explaining that "a
    question is not improper simply because it clarifies evidence to
    the   disadvantage   of   the    defendant").      Also    prompt   curative
    instructions like the judge's here eliminated the potential for
    - 29 -
    prejudice.   See, e.g., United States v. Ayala-Vazquez, 
    751 F.3d 1
    ,
    25-26 (1st Cir. 2014).    And Marcia and José give us no good reason
    for why this is not so.
    Marcia and José also pan the judge's comment at the end
    of Roman's brother's testimony.      Roman's brother had testified
    about getting a letter in which Pabón supposedly copped to killing
    Adam — a letter the brother made sure the FBI got too.    The judge
    then said, "I guess you were elated when you read the letter."
    "Very elated," Roman's sibling revealed.   The defendants objected.
    Outside the jury's presence, the judge explained his question by
    saying that "[h]ere we have a gentleman reading a letter that is
    going to liberate his brother about a crime that he did not do"
    and that defense counsel would be "wrong" to "think that they are
    going to make this [c]ourt a piece of furniture."   The judge again
    told the jurors that "the [c]ourt occasionally asks questions of
    a witness . . . to bring out facts not then fully covered in the
    testimony" and that they should "not assume that [it] hold[s] any
    opinion on the matters to which [its] questions are related."   But
    in his final charge, the judge instructed the jurors "not to take
    [the very-elated] statement at all in your determination as to
    your conferences in the deliberating room because the [c]ourt has
    eliminated [the] question and [the] answer."
    - 30 -
    Marcia and José claim that the judge's eliciting the
    very-elated comment bolstered the letter's credibility as well as
    Pabón's (Pabón would later testify about the letter's content).
    The insuperable difficulty for their attacks on the very-elated
    remark is that the judge struck that exchange from the record —
    which "sufficed to alleviate any risk of prejudice."          See Rivera-
    Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d at 45
    .      They do say that it was "impossible
    for a juror to erase from his memory the picture of the judge
    celebrating [Pabón's] letter as the reason for freeing Roman and
    for bringing [them and Aurea] to trial."         But the jurors-follow-
    instructions   presumption   is    overcome    only   if   "there   is   an
    overwhelming probability that [they] will be unable to follow
    [them] . . . and a strong likelihood that the effect of the evidence
    would be devastating to the defendant[s]."         Greer v. Miller, 
    483 U.S. 756
    , 766 n.8 (1987).     And neither Marcia nor José attempt to
    meet this difficult standard.      See Zannino, 
    895 F.2d at 17
    .
    Marcia and José criticize the judge for using the phrase
    "repeat performance" as a shorthand to limit repeat questions.           As
    the judge explained to counsel, "Anytime you have an answer, you
    don't need to go to the answer again.         I think the jury heard it,
    and they know it. . . .      That's repeat performances for me."         As
    Marcia and José see it, the judge's repeat-performance comments
    showed a level of "vituperation" that made the jury believe that
    - 31 -
    he "thought the defense presented . . . was ludicrous" — that the
    defense lawyers were mere "actors in a movie and not really
    defending   someone   presumed   to   be   innocent."    But   "because
    protracted trials drain" precious "judicial resources (judge and
    jury time, to name just two)," judges enjoy wide discretion to
    "keep the proceedings moving — by, for instance, making sure
    evidence presentation does not become rambling and repetitive (to
    state the obvious, district courts have heavy caseloads and jurors
    have family and work obligations)."        See Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d at 45
    ; accord United States v. Perez-Montañez, 
    202 F.3d 434
    ,
    440 (1st Cir. 2000).    And what the judge did here fulfilled his
    affirmative duty to stop this highly contentious multi-defendant,
    multi-day trial from consuming "needless" amounts of "time."        See
    Fed. R. Evid. 611(a); see also Lanza-Vázquez, 
    799 F.3d at 143
    (commenting that the trial "lasted 18 days and was a massive,
    multi-defendant conspiracy" prosecution, which the judge "had the
    authority to move through expeditiously"). Marcia and José protest
    that the judge used the repeat-performance "admonish[ment]" more
    with them than with prosecutors.       But rather than showing bias,
    this more reasonably reflects that the judge's "interactions" here
    "were largely driven by defense counsels' own conduct," see Lanza-
    Vázquez, 
    799 F.3d at
    143 — the defendants' lawyers spent more time
    cross-examining the government's witnesses than vice versa and so
    - 32 -
    tended to ask more repetitive questions, see 
    id.
     (stressing that
    a judge "is not a mere moderator, but is the governor of the trial
    for the purpose of assuring its proper conduct" (quoting Querica
    v. United States, 
    289 U.S. 466
    , 469 (1933))).           And to the extent
    the defendants further suggest that the judge's demeanor or tone
    reflects bias — José, for example, says that when his lawyer
    corrected the judge's recall of testimony, the judge asked counsel
    if he would "like to take the stand" — we do not believe that the
    judge crossed legal lines (even if he may have come close to them).
    See Caramadre, 
    807 F.3d at 375
     (stressing that judge's "'remarks
    during the course of trial that are critical or disapproving of,
    or even hostile to, counsel, the parties, or their cases' are
    usually insufficient to prove bias" — as are "'expressions of
    impatience, dissatisfaction, annoyance, and even anger'" (quoting
    Liteky v. United States, 
    510 U.S. 540
    , 555-56 (1994))).
    José also takes the judge to task for asking if he (José)
    had worked at The Pink Skirt on September 22, the night Adam died.
    José had testified that he was on vacation and not at The Pink
    Skirt on that date but later testified that he had been there that
    afternoon to set the bar up for the night.            José's lawyer asked,
    "Now, you saw Alex El Loco on September 22, 2005?"                 "No," José
    responded   —   just   before   the   judge   asked   (after   a    sidebar),
    "[N]otwithstanding that you did work, you didn't see him?"                The
    - 33 -
    problem for José now is that the judge withdrew the question, in
    response to the defense's objection — which (again) worked to blunt
    "any risk of prejudice."       See Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d at 45
    .
    V
    Judicial Notice
    The defendants argue that the judge erred in taking
    judicial notice of the fact that he had found Pabón competent to
    plead guilty in 2008.12
    As readers by now know, Pabón's testimony at the 2018
    trial     devastated   the   defendants'    innocence   theory   because   he
    provided details that no other witness could about how they hired
    him to kill Adam.        After the government's direct examination —
    12 The defendants spend only a small fraction of their 300-
    plus pages of briefing on the judicial-notice issue. And their
    arguments (below and here) are not a picture of clarity. But we
    do the best we can with the way we understand them, often quoting
    at length to avoid any paraphrastic imprecision. We again remind
    the bar, however, that litigants — on pain of forfeiture — must
    "spell out [their] arguments squarely and distinctly" before us.
    See Alston v. Town of Brookline, 
    997 F.3d 23
    , 41 (1st Cir. 2021)
    (quotation marks omitted); see also Rodríguez, 
    659 F.3d at 175
    (noting   that   "we   consider   waived   arguments   'confusingly
    constructed and lacking coherence'" (quoting United States v.
    Eirby, 
    525 F.3d 31
    , 36 n.4 (1st Cir. 2008))). It is not our job
    to develop appellate arguments that they may have had in mind.
    That is for them to do. See, e.g., Rodríguez-Machado v. Shinseki,
    
    700 F.3d 48
    , 49, 50 (1st Cir. 2012) (per curiam) (observing that
    "busy appellate judges depend on [the parties] to help bring issues
    into sharp focus," and adding that "doing [the parties'] work for
    [them] is not an option" because "that would divert precious judge-
    time from other[s] . . . who could have their cases resolved
    thoughtfully and expeditiously").
    - 34 -
    which brought out how Pabón was testifying under a 2008 plea deal
    — the judge instructed the jurors that they "should consider his
    testimony with particular caution."          Pabón, the judge added,
    may have had reasons to make up stories or
    exaggerate what others did because he wants to
    help himself. You must determine whether the
    testimony of such a witness has been affected
    by any interest in the outcome of this case,
    any prejudice for or against the defendants or
    by any of the benefits he has or may receive
    from the [g]overnment or the [c]ourt as to his
    sentence.
    Continuing, the judge said that the jurors
    may   consider   [Pabón's]  guilty   plea   in
    assessing his credibility, but you are not to
    consider his guilty plea as evidence that
    other    individual   defendants   may    have
    participated with him. . . . In other words,
    the fact that he accepts that he is guilty,
    that does not mean that the other defendants
    are guilty. That's for you to decide when all
    the evidence is in.
    (The   judge's   final   charge   to   the    jury   included    a    similar
    instruction.)
    The   defense's   hours-long      cross-examination       of   Pabón
    covered lots of subjects — all designed to ruin Pabón's credibility
    by painting him as a mentally unstable person with an agenda.              The
    defendants' lawyers, for instance, cross-examined him on his drug
    doings; community reputation; taste for lying and bragging; past
    violent acts; and mental-health history, including his psychiatric
    symptoms and prescribed medications (granting the defendants'
    - 35 -
    request, the judge took judicial notice that one of Pabón's meds
    — Risperdal — is "an 'atypical antipsychotic drug' used to treat
    mental illnesses including schizophrenia, bipolar disease, and
    irritability associated with autistic disorder").              And at Aurea's
    lawyer's   request,    the   judge   also    admitted   Pabón's    2008    plea
    agreement into evidence (the same judge who accepted the 2008 plea
    agreement ran the 2018 trial).
    Not    surprisingly,      Aurea's   attorney   focused    on     the
    favorable treatment Pabón hoped to get from the government for
    testifying.      Turning to Pabón's plea hearing, her lawyer asked,
    "At the time, before this judge, were you asked as to your health;
    mental health?"       "Yes," Pabón said, the judge "did, I think."
    "And," her lawyer continued, "you stated to the [c]ourt here that
    you, at that time, had been with a psychiatrist because you had
    depression,   correct?"       "I   think    something   like    that,"    Pabón
    answered.13
    13Now is as good a place as any to address José's claim that
    the judge wrongly kept him from "cross-examining" Pabón about
    "delusional letters" he wrote to other famous women that he "became
    infatuated with" (like a former "Miss Universe"). What damages
    this claim is that he does not provide the necessary record
    citations or sustained case analysis to back up his "rhetoric" (he
    cites to one instance where the government objected to a question
    on recross-examination about one woman, but his appendix lacks a
    vital excerpt showing the judge's ruling). See Reyes-García v.
    Rodríguez & Del Valle, Inc., 
    82 F.3d 11
    , 14 (1st Cir. 1996). He
    does not even offer "any indicium that [his argument] was
    seasonably advanced and properly preserved in the lower court."
    - 36 -
    After Pabón left the stand the government (outside the
    jury's presence) asked the judge to judicially notice that he (the
    judge) had found Pabón competent to plead guilty in 2008.                         The
    government thought that since the defendants "have been allowed to
    ask     and      to   bring   evidence      of    [Pabón's]   mental      state   and
    everything," fairness required that the judge note that he had
    ruled Pabón competent to make a plea.                   The attorneys for each
    defendant objected.14
    "Who put the plea agreement in evidence?" the judge
    asked.      Aurea's lawyer said that he had.           And when the judge asked
    him if he had "protest[ed] the evidence" that he had "put[] on,"
    he answered that he had not.                 The plea agreement "happened in
    2008," the judge noted, and "we are now in 2018."                    "It's a matter
    of factfinding by the jury," Aurea's lawyer responded, because
    "[i]f      the    jury   is   told   that    the   [c]ourt    made    a   particular
    determination," it is "going to put more weight to that, and that
    is our objection."
    See 
    id.
     So his claim "is a nonstarter." See Págan-Lisbon v. Soc.
    Sec. Admin., 
    996 F.3d 1
    , 7 (1st Cir. 2021).
    14The ensuing discussion between the lawyers and the judge
    was extensive and not always as clear as we might wish.      See
    generally United States v. Rivera-Morales, 
    961 F.3d 1
    , 12 (1st
    Cir. 2020) (underscoring that appellants must present their
    arguments "face up and squarely in the court below" to preserve
    them for appeal). We offer a flavor of it here.
    - 37 -
    Marcia's lawyer spoke up too and said that granting the
    government's request would make the jurors think that the judge
    "believes that [Pabón] is competent, when the truth of the matter
    is that what the [c]ourt held was that [Pabón] was competent at
    the time of the change of plea hearing."               "What's wrong if I say
    it that way?" the judge asked — "that he was competent at that
    time, that date that he pled guilty with me, with this judge."
    José's   attorney    responded    that    the    complained-about
    information "isn't relevant" because the judge "found [Pabón]
    competent within the context of the change of plea hearing" in
    "2008" while "the facts of this case" occurred "in 2005."                 "And if
    the [c]ourt states that in 2008 he was found competent . . . it
    will bring an imprimatur that he was competent upon the jury, when
    it is the jury that has to decide the issue."                 Marcia's attorney
    agreed, stating that "the issue in this case is not whether [Pabón]
    was competent at his change of plea hearing, but during the events
    that allegedly took place."          But the judge felt that he had "to
    balance the equities here."          "What you wanted," the judge said,
    was that the plea agreement goes in as a plea agreement, but the
    fact   that    he   was   then   competent,    you   don't    want   it   there."
    Marcia's counsel then repeated that "[i]nformation pertaining to
    the process of a change of plea hearing, and that he was found
    competent[,] is not relevant" to whether "at the time of the events
    - 38 -
    he   was   competent."15    And    he   added   that   he     "believe[d]    the
    instruction" would "confuse the jury because the competence that
    is discussed in the context of" a plea change "is a legal term" —
    "[i]t is not necessarily a matter related to facts."
    "They   introduced    the     [p]lea      and     [c]ooperation
    [a]greement," the prosecutor argued right back.                And they asked
    Pabón "for half an hour all his obligations" and "benefits."                But,
    the prosecutor added, they now do not want the jury "to hear the
    [other] half of the story that is inconvenient for them" — that
    "he was competent" to plead "guilty before the [c]ourt." Witnesses
    are presumed "competent to testify," the prosecutor stressed, and
    "[t]he [d]efense has put this [in] issue."             Responding, Marcia's
    lawyer argued that when the judge — "the highest authority in this
    room" — talks, the jurors "might think" that "the [c]ourt has
    already found him competent."       What the government wants, Marcia's
    attorney claimed, "is to . . . influence the jury that [Pabón] is
    of a state of mind different to that that was presented to them"
    during the direct and cross-examinations.
    15 We
    have no idea why Marcia's and José's lawyers kept talking
    about Pabón's competency at the time of Adam's murder.       And we
    suspect the judge had no idea either. That is because criminals
    can commit crimes while incompetent — they just cannot (generally
    speaking) face certain criminal processes since incompetents
    cannot make a defense. See Indiana v. Edwards, 
    554 U.S. 164
    , 170
    (2008).
    - 39 -
    Aurea's counsel jumped back in and noted why she had
    questioned Pabón about the plea hearing.    Pabón had answered "yes"
    when asked at the plea proceeding whether he had had "psychiatric
    treatment," her lawyer said. So "we cross-examined him extensively
    on that issue, because there is a record after that . . . plea
    [hearing] of years of [him] saying that he is not well, and taking
    X, Y, and Z for years."   Making this point again, Aurea's attorney
    said that "[f]or years [Pabón] took medicines, treatment, and he
    himself asked for it, saying that he heard voices, saying that he
    saw things" — which "is why we went into that issue."
    At the end of the government's case the judge took
    judicial notice and advised the jury that
    on June 13, 2008, [Pabón] entered a plea of
    guilty in Criminal Case Number 08-216, which
    is this case. During the plea and at the end
    of the hearing, the [c]ourt found [Pabón]
    competent and capable of entering an informed
    plea on this date.
    The judge repeated that instruction in his final charge. And after
    telling the jurors that witness credibility was entirely a matter
    of their judgment — and thus they did "not have to accept the
    testimony of any witness if" they found the witness "not credible"
    — the judge instructed the jurors that "the final decision whether
    - 40 -
    or not to accept" a judicially noticed fact was theirs "to make"
    and that they did not have "to agree with the [c]ourt."16
    Forgoing any relevance-based grounds           on appeal, the
    defendants use different legal frameworks here to contest the
    judge's taking judicial notice of Pabón's competency to plead
    guilty.    Aurea characterizes her challenge as one of instructional
    error (focusing on the judge's final charge), Marcia's as part of
    a   broader    pattern   of    judicial   bias,   and   José's    as   one   of
    evidentiary error.       The standard of review applicable to each of
    those challenges is abuse of discretion.            See United States v.
    Cantwell, 
    64 F.4th 396
    , 409-10 (1st Cir. 2023) (instructional
    challenge); Raymundí-Hernández, 984 F.3d at 145 (judicial-bias
    challenge); United States v. Vázquez-Soto, 
    939 F.3d 365
    , 373 (1st
    Cir. 2019) (evidentiary challenge).          Noting that the root cause of
    the claimed error is the judge's judicial-notice taking, the
    government     treats    the   defendants'   attacks    as   a   freestanding
    judicial-notice challenge — which also gets abuse-of-discretion
    review.     See United States v. Bello, 
    194 F.3d 18
    , 23 (1st Cir.
    1999).     No party disagrees with the government's approach.           So we
    follow that approach too.
    For what it is worth, the defendants had argued that "[t]he
    16
    first thing the [g]overnment will do in closing" will be to "say,
    hey, members of the jury, the judge said that [Pabón] was
    competent." But the government did nothing of the sort.
    - 41 -
    A judge may judicially notice an "adjudicative fact" —
    i.e., a fact that is "particularly related" to the parties'
    proceeding — if the fact is "not subject to reasonable dispute" in
    that it is either "generally known within the trial court's
    territorial    jurisdiction"    or   "can   be   accurately   and   readily
    determined    from   sources   whose   accuracy   cannot   reasonably    be
    questioned."    See Fed. R. Evid. 201(b).17        In a criminal case, a
    judge who judicially notices an adjudicative fact must "instruct
    the jury that it may or may not accept the noticed fact as
    conclusive."    See id. 201(f).        This rider protects the jury's
    traditional right to discount even an uncontested fact in reaching
    a verdict and so prevents the judge from violating a defendant's
    constitutional jury right by directing a verdict on that fact.
    See, e.g., United States v. Dávila-Nieves, 
    670 F.3d 1
    , 8 (1st Cir.
    2012); Bello, 
    194 F.3d at 25
    .
    17The "particularly related" quote comes from a leading legal
    dictionary. See Black's Law Dictionary (11th ed. 2019) (look up
    "adjudicative fact," which says "SEE FACT"; go to "fact," which
    provides a definition of "adjudicative fact"). Our caselaw says
    that "[a]djudicative fact is . . . a fuzzy concept (indeed, there
    is more than one usage, and [Evidence] Rule 201's advisory
    committee notes do little more than borrow — and may well
    misconceive — . . . several formulations: e.g., facts concerning
    the immediate parties." United States v. Hilton, 
    257 F.3d 50
    , 55
    (1st Cir. 2001). But no one doubts that the judge here judicially
    noticed an adjudicative fact.    See generally United States v.
    Bauzó-Santiago, 
    867 F.3d 13
    , 23 (1st Cir. 2017) (holding that a
    fact on the docket "is a proper subject of judicial notice").
    - 42 -
    The defendants do not contest the fact that in 2008 the
    judge found Pabón competent to plead guilty (a transcript of
    Pabón's plea hearing appears in the joint appendix filed in this
    appeal).   Nor do they dispute that this fact clearly appears in
    the court's records.     Instead they contend that the judge's
    judicial-notice taking "placed the prestige of the [c]ourt behind
    the mental competence of Pabón" and so endorsed his "credibility
    and bolstered his testimony" in 2018.   And pointing to the judge's
    "I have to balance the equities" comment, they suggest that the
    notice offset their bid to destroy Pabón's "credibility" on cross
    by "impermissibly" presenting his "competen[cy]" "as a proven
    fact" that the jury "could not" contest.    But their thesis rests
    on an incorrect premise — namely, that by judicially noticing
    Pabón's competency to plead guilty in 2008, the judge vouched for
    the credibility of Pabón's trial testimony a decade later in 2018.
    Explaining why we think this will require a bit of unpacking
    (please bear with us).
    Competency and credibility are different concepts in
    important respects.    Compare Competency, Black's Law Dictionary
    (11th ed. 2019) (defined as "[t]he mental ability to understand
    problems and make decisions," which in the criminal-law context
    includes a defendant's "fitness to plead" or "to stand trial"),
    and Competence, 
    id.
     (defined as "[a] basic or minimal ability to
    - 43 -
    do something; qualification, esp[ecially] to testify"),18 with
    Credibility, Black's Law Dictionary (11th ed. 2019) (defined as
    "[t]he quality that makes something" — like "a witness" — "worthy
    of belief"), and Witness, sub-definition for "credible witness"
    (defined as "[a] witness whose testimony is believable").         One can
    be competent to testify yet still testify with no credibility, for
    example. Competency (if contested) is for the judge, not the jury.
    See United States v. Devin, 
    918 F.2d 280
    , 291-92 (1st Cir. 1990).
    But credibility is for the jury, not the judge.19 See United States
    v. Alicea, 
    205 F.3d 480
    , 483 (1st Cir. 2000).
    Now give the at-issue judicial notice another read:
    [O]n June 13, 2008, [Pabón] entered a plea of
    guilty in Criminal Case Number 08-216, which
    is this case. During the plea and at the end
    of the hearing, the [c]ourt found [Pabón]
    competent and capable of entering an informed
    plea on this date.
    What jumps out is that in giving the jury context for the plea's
    acceptance   despite   (as   the    defense   showed)   Pabón's   getting
    psychiatric treatment then, the judge carefully limited the notice
    18See generally District of Columbia v. Arms, 
    107 U.S. 519
    ,
    521-22 (1883) (stating that even "a person affected with insanity
    is admissible as a witness if he has sufficient understanding to
    apprehend the obligation of an oath, and to be capable of giving
    a correct account of the matters which he has seen or heard in
    reference to the questions at issue") (cleaned up).
    19 If anyone is wondering, no defendant questioned Pabón's
    competency to appear as a witness or moved to strike his testimony.
    - 44 -
    to Pabón's plea competency in 2008 — i.e., to his "entering an
    informed plea on th[at] date" (emphasis added).                The judge said
    nothing about Pabón's trial credibility in 2018 — the phrase "trial
    credibility in 2018" (or one like it) is nowhere to be found there.
    So Pabón's trial credibility still remained a disputed fact.
    Yet the defendants still think that the judge's notice
    "convey[ed] to the jurors that [Pabón] was not crazy," when he
    instead   "should   have    allowed   the    jury    to   come    to   its   own
    conclusion." But their claim butts up against the judge's explicit
    instructions   that   the   jurors    (and   they     alone)     remained    the
    evaluators of witness credibility and so did not "have to accept
    the testimony of any witness" they found "not credible."20                   And
    20 Under the heading "Number            of     witnesses,"    the   judge
    instructed the jury in part:
    You do not have to accept the testimony of any
    witness if you find the witness is not credible. You
    must decide which witnesses to believe and which facts
    are true. To do this, you must look at all the evidence,
    drawing upon your common sense and personal experience.
    You may want to take into consideration such
    factors as the witnesses' conduct and demeanor while
    testifying; their apparent fairness or any bias they may
    have displayed; any interest you may discern that they
    may have in the outcome of the case; any prejudice they
    may have shown; their opportunities for seeing and
    knowing the things about which they testified; the
    reasonableness or unreasonableness of the events that
    they have related to you in their testimony; and any
    other facts or circumstances disclosed by the evidence
    that tend to corroborate or contradict their versions of
    the events.
    - 45 -
    these instructions — which the law presumes they followed, see
    United States v. Stewart-Carrasquillo, 
    997 F.3d 408
    , 423 (1st Cir.
    2021) — did not carve out an exception for Pabón.
    As if to make this more emphatic, both the government
    and the defense (seemingly following the judge's lead) acted like
    Pabón's credibility — his believability — remained a question for
    the jury even after the judge gave the disputed notice.             A
    prosecutor, for example, told the jurors during closing argument
    And under the heading "Credibility     of   witnesses,"   the   judge
    instructed the jury as follows:
    In deciding what the facts are, you may have to
    decide what testimony you believe and what testimony you
    do not believe. You may believe everything a witness
    says or only part of it or none of it. In deciding what
    to believe, you may consider a number of factors,
    including the following: The witness' ability to see or
    hear or know the things the witness testifies to; number
    two, the quality of the witness' memory; number three,
    the witness' manner while testifying; four, whether the
    witness has an interest in the outcome of the case or
    any motive, bias or prejudice; five, whether the witness
    is contradicted by anything the witness said or wrote
    before the trial or by other evidence; and six, how
    reasonable the witness' testimony is when considered in
    light of other evidence which you believe.
    You are to judge the credibility of all witnesses
    fairly and reasonably, and you are to consider any
    interest that each of them may have in the outcome of
    the case in determining the weight to be given to their
    testimony.
    Therefore, after evaluating all the evidence, and
    a particular witness' testimony pursuant to this
    instruction, you have three choices: You believe him or
    her totally; you reject his or her testimony totally or;
    you believe him or her partially.
    - 46 -
    that "[i]t is your duty to adjudge credibility and determine what
    to believe" (emphasis added) — without excepting Pabón.            Not to be
    outdone, a defense lawyer told them that "Alex El Loco" had "no
    credibility" but "that is up to you to decide" (emphases added).
    The    defense's      closings     also   pushed   the   crazy-Pabón-has-no-
    credibility theme with gusto, telling the jurors that "Alex El
    Loco" "is a fantasiz[ing]" "psychopath" who is "detached from
    reality," "was prescribed psychotic drugs" for a very long time,
    and "does not deserve an iota of credibility" — so "[t]ake care
    when you weigh his testimony" (emphases added).              Which caused a
    prosecutor during rebuttal closing argument to highlight evidence
    "corroborat[ing]" Pabón's "testimony" (the prosecutor's words, not
    ours), a significant development that — because "[c]orroboration
    goes to credibility," see Robinson v. Pezzat, 
    818 F.3d 1
    , 9 (D.C.
    Cir. 2016) — further shows how everyone (the judge, the government,
    and the defense) believed Pabón's credibility remained a live issue
    for the jury even after the judge gave the contested notice.
    The defendants' briefs might be read to say that the
    jury    did    not    know   the    difference     between   competency   and
    credibility.         José, for example, claims that the judge botched
    things by not instructing the jury "what it meant to be found
    competent to plead guilty."          Damaging to their position, however,
    is that they give us no sign that they ever asked the judge to
    - 47 -
    instruct    the   jury   on   the   difference   between   competency   and
    credibility. Anyway, any confusion about the scope of the judicial
    notice got straightened out by the judge's multiple charges to the
    jurors (which the law assumes they obeyed, as we keep saying, see
    Stewart-Carrasquillo, 997 F.3d at 423), like how they "should
    consider [Pabón's] testimony with particular caution" and how they
    remained the sole deciders of witness credibility, meaning they —
    as the exclusive finders of fact — did "not have to accept the
    testimony of any witness" (no Pabón carve-out exception) if they
    found the witness "not credible" (emphases added).          And even after
    those instructions, the defendants (as we just intimated) still
    did not ask the judge to clarify the difference between competency
    and credibility.
    So on this record we cannot say that the judge's judicial
    notice represents an abuse of discretion — which would require us
    to hold that "no reasonable person" could have done what this judge
    did.21    See Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d at 44
    .
    21Since we reject the defendants' arguments on these grounds,
    we need not reach (and take no position on) the government's
    additional claim that we can uphold the judge's action because he
    repeatedly told the jurors that they could — per Evidence Rule 201
    — disregard any judicially noticed fact. See generally PDK Labs.
    Inc. v. DEA, 
    362 F.3d 786
    , 799 (D.C. Cir. 2004) (Roberts, J.,
    concurring in part and concurring in the judgment) (declaring that
    "if it is not necessary to decide more, it is necessary not to
    decide more").
    - 48 -
    Siding   with   the   defense,     the       dissent    raises    some
    concerns.22   But they do not change the outcome.
    The   dissent   dismisses   our   mentioning        how   the    judge
    directed the jurors to a specific moment in time — 2008, not 2018
    — involving a specific subject — competency, not credibility — and
    later instructed that they should view Pabón's testimony with
    special care and could reject "any witness['s]" account as the
    absolute arbiters of witness credibility (emphasis added).                 In the
    dissent's telling, the judge's "intervention . . . created the
    unacceptable risk that the jurors understood the . . . notice of
    the [2008] competency finding to reflect the . . . judge's view
    that Pabón's mental illness did not make" his 2018 trial testimony
    "untrustworthy — regardless of the jur[or]s' perception of his
    [2018] performance on the witness stand."          In other words, "[b]y
    instructing the jury on its finding of Pabón's competence in 2008,
    the judge was inescapably telling the jury that [that] finding was
    relevant to the jury's evaluation of Pabón's credibility at trial"
    in 2018 — or so the dissent believes.
    Two   responses.      One   is   that    —    as   we   showed    five
    paragraphs above (beginning "As if to make this more emphatic
    . . .") — everyone operated below on the view that the credibility
    22 The "dissent" refers to the opinion that follows ours,
    concurring in part and dissenting in part.
    - 49 -
    of all witnesses remained a jury question even after the judge
    gave the challenged notice.         Another — deeply embedded in our
    jurisprudence (and this should sound familiar by now) — is that
    jurors can and do make distinctions among the different issues at
    trial and follow judges' instructions, see Stewart-Carrasquillo,
    997 F.3d at 423 — including those saying that they decide who is
    credible, based on factors like their perception of a witness's
    "ability to see or hear or know the things the witness testifies
    to" and "the witness'[s] manner while testifying" (quotes pulled
    from the instructions displayed a few footnotes ago).       Our bottom-
    line view is that the judge's instructions could not be any clearer
    that the jurors got to make all credibility decisions and that the
    judicial notice's mention of Pabón's competency concerned only a
    finding of his competency when he pled guilty in 2008.       And (allow
    us to say again, because it bears repeating) if the defendants
    felt that the credibility instructions might mystify the jurors
    when paired with the notice's competency reference, then it was on
    them to ask for clarification on the difference between credibility
    and competency.    Yet they never did.
    The    dissent   next     claims   that   the-jurors-decide-
    credibility charge could not "cure the harm from the" judge's
    "error."   And as support, the dissent leans on Raymundí-Hernández.
    - 50 -
    But there are important night-and-day differences between that
    case and the defendants'.
    Among other "intercessions," see 984 F.3d at 154, the
    district judge there said "before the jury" that the testimony of
    a then-testifying defense witness "[wa]s not relevant," id. at
    147.    Raymundí-Hernández did hold that "where the reliability of
    witness     testimony     is   so    strongly     implicated      . .   .   'such
    interference with jury fact-finding cannot be cured by standard
    jury instructions,'" id. at 153-54 (quoting United States v.
    Tilghman,    
    134 F.3d 414
    ,     421   (D.C.   Cir.   1998))    —    including
    instructions saying that witness credibility is for the jury, see
    id. at 149-50.      But Raymundí-Hernández did not involve judicial
    notice.      Plus nothing like the fact-finding interference that
    happened there happened here, where (as we have been at pains to
    stress) the judge's words focused the jurors on Pabón's plea
    competence in 2008 — not his testimonial credibility a decade later
    in 2018.23
    The dissent tries to downplay the significance of the
    lawyers' "treat[ing] Pabón's credibility as a live issue" during
    closing arguments, writing that "[i]t is certainly no surprise"
    Perhaps we should say that no one argues here that the
    23
    judge   violated  Evidence   Rule  403   (recall the probative
    worth/unfair prejudice analysis discussed above) by judicially
    noticing Pabón's plea competency in 2008.
    - 51 -
    that they "argued that point."                As the dissent sees it, "[t]he
    problem with the judicial notice in this case is not that the
    district    court    entirely       preempted        the   jury's   factfinding      on
    Pabón's credibility, but that it weighed in on the government's
    behalf."    But that theory depends on the same plea-competency-in-
    2008-implicates-testimonial-credibility-in-2018                     idea    that     we
    cannot accept, for the reasons already given.
    And that is that for the judicial-notice matter (though
    we should add that because we see no abuse of discretion, we —
    unlike the dissent — need not run through harmless error here).
    VI
    Constructive Amendment and Prejudicial Variance
    Aurea claims that the government's closing arguments and
    the   judge's       jury     instructions        constructively       amended      the
    indictment.          Marcia        claims     that     the     government's       proof
    constructively       amended        or      prejudicially       varied     from    the
    indictment.
    A constructive amendment (roughly speaking) occurs when
    either the government (typically through evidence presentation or
    argument)   or   the       judge    (typically       through   jury   instructions)
    changes the indictment's terms to the point that the defendants
    are "effectively charged with" a crime different from "the one
    returned by the grand jury."             See United States v. Katana, 
    93 F.4th 521
    , 530 (1st Cir. 2024); see also United States v. Condron, 98
    - 52 -
    F.4th 1, 24 (1st Cir. 2024).         A prejudicial variance (also roughly
    speaking) occurs when there is a difference between the facts
    charged    and    the   facts    proved    that     affected    the    defendants'
    "substantial rights," say by surprising them at trial or by
    exposing them to the risk of double jeopardy.                    See Condron, 98
    F.4th at 24-25; see also Katana, 93 F.4th at 530.
    A
    Aurea's Arguments
    Aurea presents two constructive-amendment arguments.
    The first argument is that the government's comment in
    closing arguments that cellphones and cars are facilities of
    interstate commerce shows a "changed . . . theory as to the
    interstate commerce facility."            Exactly how Aurea does not clearly
    say.     But as the government notes without contradiction, this is
    an   unpreserved    contention      that       prompts   (at   most)   plain-error
    review.    See United States v. McBride, 
    962 F.3d 25
    , 31 (1st Cir.
    2020).    And because Aurea "do[es] not tie this unpreserved . . .
    argument to the demanding plain-error standard," she has "waived
    it."   See Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d at
    49 n.15.
    The    second   argument       —    which    the   parties   treat   as
    preserved (and so will we) — is that the judge instructed the
    jurors that Aurea stood trial only for the counts in the original
    indictment but that they could consider overt acts alleged in the
    second superseding indictment.             Put aside that she identifies no
    - 53 -
    overt     acts   in    the   second   superseding   indictment   that   would
    fundamentally alter the charging terms of her indictment.                 Her
    claim at bottom rests on the idea that the jury could have
    convicted her under the second superseding indictment rather than
    the first.       But the judge's repeated instructions — which we
    presume the jury followed, see Chisholm, 940 F.3d at 129 — that
    Aurea faced trial on the original indictment throw cold water on
    that proposition.
    B
    Marcia's Arguments
    Marcia contends that Pabón's testimony that she was at
    El Hamburger — which the second superseding indictment does not
    specifically mention — constructively amended or prejudicially
    varied from the operative indictment.24
    Starting with Marcia's constructive-amendment claim, the
    government again says without pushback that she did not preserve
    that theory.          Which means review is (at best) for plain error.
    See United States v. DeCicco, 
    439 F.3d 36
    , 44 (1st Cir. 2006).
    But by making no effort to show plain error, she waived it.               See
    Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d at
    49 n.15.
    24Among the many overt acts alleged, the indictment said that
    Aurea and José "met with Pabón . . . at a restaurant in Puerta de
    Tierra" — El Hamburger — on September 21, 2005, "and proposed that
    [he] murder [Adam], in exchange for" $3 million.
    - 54 -
    And Marcia's prejudicial-variance theory — which the
    parties treat as preserved (and so will we) — goes nowhere too.
    An indictment (as we intimated at the beginning of this discussion)
    must say enough so a defendant knows the charges and can plead
    double jeopardy in any later prosecution for the same crime.              See,
    e.g., Katana, 93 F.4th at 530.       But prosecutors need not list all
    of their evidence in the indictment.         See, e.g., United States v.
    Marrero-Ortiz, 
    160 F.3d 768
    , 773 (1st Cir. 1998).              Nor must they
    limit themselves at trial to the overt acts in that document.              See
    
    id.
        Getting back to this case, the second superseding indictment
    gave Marcia notice that prosecutors would present evidence of her
    meeting with Pabón before Adam's murder.          As a "manner and means"
    of the conspiracy, the indictment stated (emphasis ours) that
    Aurea, Marcia, and José "approach[ed] . . .             Pabón . . . , and
    propose[d] that he murder" Adam and "met with Pabón . . . on
    several occasions, . . . to discuss the particulars of the murder
    for hire."      The indictment also alleged as an overt act that on
    September 21, 2005 — the date of the El Hamburger meet-up — Aurea,
    Marcia, and José "agreed that Pabón . . . would be notified of the
    specific location, date, and time of the murder of [Adam]."               And
    the statement of facts in Pabón's plea agreement — submitted as an
    exhibit below — said (again emphasis ours) that Aurea, Marcia, and
    José   "all    boarded   Aurea's   SUV   . . .   and   drove   to   a   nearby
    - 55 -
    restaurant in Puerta de Tierra known as El Hamburger."          So because
    Marcia "cannot credibly claim surprise," her variance argument
    fails for lack of prejudice.       See id.; see also United States v.
    Rivera-Donate, 
    682 F.3d 120
    , 130 (1st Cir. 2012) (making a similar
    point in rejecting a variance argument because "[a]lthough the
    indictment did not spell out every single              location at which
    activities   related   to   the   conspiracy    took   place,   it   gave   a
    sufficient description of the manner and means of the same to put
    [the defendant] on notice of the charges against him").
    VII
    Death Resulted
    The defendants also ask us to vacate their sentences
    because the judge did not have the jury specifically find that a
    death resulted from the murder-for-hire scheme.
    The murder-for-hire statute punishes offenders on a
    sliding scale.   If no injury occurs, they can get up to 10 years
    in prison.   If an injury does occur, they can get up to 20 years
    in prison.   And if death occurs, they can get death or life in
    prison.   See 
    18 U.S.C. § 1958
    (a).         The defendants are right that
    other than the fact of a prior conviction, any fact that controls
    minimum and maximum sentences must be alleged in the indictment
    and found by the jury beyond a reasonable doubt.        See United States
    v. Rabb, 
    5 F.4th 95
    , 104 (1st Cir. 2021); see also Burrage v.
    - 56 -
    United States, 
    571 U.S. 204
    , 210 (2014).          But they are wrong to
    think that their argument is a winner.
    Using    the   more     defendant-friendly     harmless-error
    standard (rather than the less defendant-friendly plain-error
    model), see United States v. Pizarro, 
    772 F.3d 284
    , 296-97 (1st
    Cir.   2014),   we   "conclude[]    beyond   reasonable   doubt   that   the
    omitted" death-results "element was uncontested and supported by
    overwhelming evidence, such that the jury verdict would have been
    the same absent the error," see 
    id. at 297-98
     (quotation marks
    omitted).    The operative indictments charged the defendants with
    conspiring to commit murder for hire "result[ing]" in "the death
    of Adam Joel Anhang Uster."        The judge read the indictments to the
    jury during his preliminary and final instructions, including the
    allegations that the death of Adam resulted.         And as reflected on
    the verdict forms, the jury found each defendant guilty "as
    charged."    But put that away.       The defendants conceded at trial
    that Adam died at Pabón's hands.         Lawyers for Aurea and Marcia,
    for example, told the jury in their opening statements that "[t]he
    evidence will show that Adam died" (Aurea's lawyer) and that Pabón
    "brutally murdered Adam" (Marcia's lawyer).         And to give another
    example, counsel for each defendant relied on this concession to
    convince the judge to limit the government's use of a murder-scene
    video that showed Adam's dead body lying on the street.                   A
    - 57 -
    representative        quote    is    Aurea's     lawyer's   saying     that    because
    "[t]here is no issue" that Adam "is dead," the video need not come
    in.      More, Pabón testified about how he took Adam's life; a
    forensic pathologist testified about how Adam died; a lawyer
    testified about how Aurea sued Adam's parents to recover her
    claimed       share   of   her      "deceased"    husband's       estate;    and    José
    testified about how he felt after learning of Adam's death (among
    other    evidence).           And    more   still    (as    the    judge    noted     at
    sentencing), no witness testified that Adam did not die.                             See
    United States v. Razo, 
    782 F.3d 31
    , 40 (1st Cir. 2015) (concluding
    that     "a    'reasonable       jury   necessarily        would    have    found    an
    aggravating [drug-quantity] element beyond a reasonable doubt'
    even though it was not asked to do so," noting that the defendant
    "point[ed]      to    no   evidence     contradicting       the    drug     quantities
    testified       to    at   trial"     and   never    "assert[ed]      that    he     was
    responsible for a lower quantity" (quoting Pizarro, 
    772 F.3d at 296
    )).
    Trying to distinguish his case from Pizarro, José says
    (emphasis ours) that there was "no overwhelming evidence about his
    participation in the murder."                Marcia seems to make a similar
    argument for herself. But the harmless-error analysis here focuses
    on the omitted aggravating element that a death resulted from the
    charged crime, not on other elements of the offense.
    - 58 -
    VIII
    Mental Health
    Aurea, Marcia, and José contest a bunch of post-trial
    rulings rejecting claims for relief based on Pabón's mental health.
    A
    Background
    To get to the issues we must first sort through a fairly
    complicated procedural history (some of which we have already
    touched on).
    Pabón pled guilty in June 2008 to conspiring to commit
    murder for hire resulting in Adam's death.       Because his sentence
    depended on his "substantial assistance to the United States and
    [his] truthful testimony" in the defendants' case, particularly
    after "the cross-examination and all of the evidence," the judge
    did not set a sentencing date (again, Pabón's sentencing judge was
    the defendants' trial judge).
    The defendants' trial began and ended in 2018.     They got
    sentenced in 2019.   And they timely appealed their convictions and
    sentences.     Pabón remained unsentenced because his lawyer had
    concerns about his competency (a defendant must be competent at
    all stages of the prosecution, including sentencing, see Drope v.
    Missouri, 
    420 U.S. 162
    , 181 (1975)).     What happened was Pabón sent
    letters to José's and Aurea's lawyers in June 2019 (about three
    months after    the defendants'   sentencings)   promising "helpful"
    - 59 -
    information for each client's appeal. At Pabón's lawyer's ex parte
    request the judge in July 2019 issued an ex parte order for a
    competency evaluation.
    Aurea, Marcia, and José later learned about the ex parte
    order and the letters that had triggered it.           They also learned
    that before trial Pabón had told prosecutors "in a very excited
    fashion that he did not want to cooperate[;] that he had had a
    plan all along that he was going to break the plea agreement in
    court[;] and that he was not wanting to cooperate any longer" —
    information prosecutors shared with the judge (in an ex parte
    sidebar at trial), but not with the defendants.
    The defendants then asked us in September 2019 to remand
    their pending appeals so that the judge could assess Pabón's
    letters — which they described as "impeachment evidence."            They
    also argued that the government's "fail[ure] to disclose [this]
    evidence at trial, which appear[ed] to be related to [Pabón's]
    lack of competence," had not been "presented below" and "should be
    first addressed by the [d]istrict [c]ourt."
    Before we ruled on that remand motion, the Bureau of
    Prisons   ("BOP")   in   September   2019   released   its   court-ordered
    competency evaluation of Pabón.        The psychologist diagnosed him
    with "Schizophrenia, Continuous."       According to the psychologist,
    Pabón was "experiencing symptoms of a psychotic disorder that do
    - 60 -
    substantially impair his present ability to understand the nature
    and consequences of the court proceedings brought against him, and
    substantially impair his ability to properly assist counsel in a
    defense." The psychologist also noted that in November 2008, Pabón
    had been diagnosed with "Schizophrenia, Delusional Type" while in
    BOP custody.       And the psychologist ultimately "recommended that
    [Pabón] be transferred to a federal medical center for competency
    restoration treatment."      Acting on Pabón's counsel's motion, the
    judge ordered Pabón to undergo that treatment.
    Days   after   the   evaluation's   release,   we   denied   the
    defendants' remand motion in October 2019, but "without prejudice
    to [their] following the procedures set forth in Fed. R. Crim. P.
    37 and Fed. R. App. P. 12.1."25
    25   Fed. R. Crim. P. 37 provides:
    (a) Relief Pending Appeal.    If a timely
    motion is made for relief that the court
    lacks authority to grant because of an
    appeal that has been docketed and is
    pending, the court may:
    (1) defer considering the motion;
    (2) deny the motion; or
    (3) state either that it would grant the
    motion if the court of appeals remands for
    that purpose or that the motion raises a
    substantial issue.
    (b) Notice to the Court of Appeals.       The
    movant must promptly notify the circuit
    clerk under Federal Rule of Appellate
    Procedure 12.1 if the district court states
    - 61 -
    In November 2019 — more than a year after their trial —
    the defendants filed motions for indicative rulings under Criminal
    Rule 37.    Marcia sought an indicative ruling on a new-trial motion
    alleging the government had violated its duties under Brady v.
    Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
     (1963), by withholding Pabón's prison medical
    records    (including   his   2008    schizophrenia   diagnosis)   and   had
    ignored its obligations under Giglio v. United States, 
    405 U.S. 150
     (1972), by suppressing the "impeachment evidence."             Because
    that it would grant the motion or that the
    motion raises a substantial issue.
    (c) Remand.   The district court may decide
    the motion if the court of appeals remands
    for that purpose.
    And Fed. R. App. P. 12.1 says:
    (a) Notice to the Court of Appeals.      If a
    timely motion is made in the district court
    for relief that it lacks authority to grant
    because of an appeal that has been docketed
    and is pending, the movant must promptly
    notify the circuit clerk if the district
    court states either that it would grant the
    motion or that the motion raises a
    substantial issue.
    (b) Remand After an Indicative Ruling.    If
    the district court states that it would
    grant the motion or that the motion raises
    a substantial issue, the court of appeals
    may remand for further proceedings but
    retains jurisdiction unless it expressly
    dismisses the appeal.     If the court of
    appeals remands but retains jurisdiction,
    the parties must promptly notify the
    circuit clerk when the district court has
    decided the motion on remand.
    - 62 -
    Aurea — and only Aurea — had gotten Pabón's prison medical records
    before trial (unlike the other defendants, she had served the BOP
    with a subpoena after the judge had ordered the records turned
    over), she sought an indicative ruling on a new-trial motion
    claiming "newly discovered evidence" about Pabón's mental health
    after the trial and accusing the government of defying Brady/Giglio
    by not producing the "impeachment evidence."      Marcia and Aurea
    also argued that they had a right to an independent psychiatric
    examination of Pabón, post-trial discovery, and an evidentiary
    hearing.   José joined their motions.
    The following month — December 2019 — we granted the
    defendants' motion to stay their pending appeals in their criminal
    case.   Of note, our order directed them to "file status reports
    every thirty days advising [us] of the status of the pending
    district court motions for indicative rulings."
    The judge denied all the indicative-rulings motions in
    February 2020.   But he then granted the defendants' motions to
    extend the "deadline" to file a reconsideration motion from March
    6 to March 20, 2020.    Responding to the Covid-19 pandemic, the
    District Court of Puerto Rico issued an order saying that "all
    deadlines originally set from March 16, 2020, to and including
    April 9, 2020 are extended until April 10, 2020."
    - 63 -
    The defendants filed status reports with us a little
    later, informing us about the judge's ruling.
    Then on April 30, 2020, Marcia moved the judge for
    reconsideration and an evidentiary hearing.      But the judge denied
    that "extremely overdue" motion on May 1, 2020, noting that Marcia
    had filed it "twenty days after the expiration of the District
    Court's mandated extension of deadlines."       José moved three days
    later to join Marcia's untimely reconsideration motion.         And the
    judge denied that motion too.
    But those were not the only things that happened in May
    2020.   Aurea moved the judge for post-trial discovery on the "same
    matter" raised in her previously denied indicative-rulings bid —
    a motion Marcia and José joined as well.       Before the judge ruled
    on that request, José appealed the February 2020 denial of the
    indicative-rulings motions.    The judge then denied the post-trial-
    discovery motion.    And Aurea and Marcia filed amended notices of
    appeal that same day.      Aurea's amended notice challenged "all
    motions[] filed after the filing of [her] original notice of
    appeal"   and "motions where a joinder was requested" but was
    "denied."     Marcia's   amended   notice   challenged   "the   district
    court's denial of "her . . . motions for [i]ndicative [r]ulings
    and her motion for reconsideration and its denial of a motion for
    post-conviction discovery, which [she] joined, among others."
    - 64 -
    The   BOP   completed   Pabón's     court-ordered       competency-
    restoration treatment in June 2020.             The psychologist diagnosed
    him   with   "antisocial    personality       disorder"    but     found   he    was
    "competent to proceed to" sentencing.            That same month we lifted
    the "stay of appellate proceedings" given "the conclusion of the
    district court proceedings related to defendants' motions for
    indicative rulings."
    After getting the June 2020 evaluation, Marcia moved the
    judge in August 2020 for an indicative ruling on a request for the
    appointment of an independent psychiatrist to evaluate Pabón,
    post-trial discovery of all documents "in the possession of the
    . . . BOP [p]sychologists," and an evidentiary hearing.                The judge
    denied the motion the same day.         And Marcia appealed that denial.
    Taking a page from Marcia, Aurea moved the judge in
    September    2020   for    an   indicative     ruling     on   a   request      that
    essentially mirrored Marcia's.         The judge denied that motion too.
    And Aurea appealed that denial.
    This brings us to October 2020.            Concerned that José's
    May 2020 appeal might be untimely under Fed. R. App. P. 4(a)(1)(B),
    we ordered him "to move for voluntary dismissal of the appeal
    . . . , or to show cause, in writing, why this appeal should not
    - 65 -
    be dismissed."26   José then dismissed his May 2020 appeal and filed
    a document in his appeal from the criminal trial asking us to "take
    notice" of the judge's February 2020 denial of the indicative-
    rulings motions.
    December 2020 saw a flurry of activity.        José asked us
    if he could file a separate addendum under seal in the appeal from
    his criminal trial.     We granted his request but said that "[t]he
    merits    panel   w[ould]   decide   whether    to   consider   the   post-
    conviction orders contained in the supplemental addendum, which
    post-date defendant's direct appeal."          Back in the district court
    Pabón's lawyer told the judge that Pabón had acted in ways that
    suggested he "may again be incompetent" to help his "defense."          As
    support, counsel pointed to a letter Pabón had written him and the
    judge, which (in relevant part and reproduced as it appears in the
    record) began:
    I:   Alex Pabón Colón — star witness in the
    case   of   the  Canadian  multi-millionaire
    investor, ask for a new trial against the
    defendants. I know that I will be sentenced
    on December 16, 2020, and that I will be
    present that day since I am asking the
    26Fed. R. App. P. 4(a)(1)(B) requires that a defendant in a
    civil case file a notice of appeal within sixty days of the
    judgment or order appealed from. Our order should have referred
    to Fed. R. App. P. 4(b)(1)(A), which requires that a defendant in
    a criminal case file a notice of appeal within fourteen days of
    the judgment or order appealed from. But José's notice of appeal
    was late under either rule.
    - 66 -
    Honorable federal judge, Daniel Domínguez that
    he see a new trial.
    Pabón added:
    I admit there are two powerful families that
    have been putting a lot of pressure on me since
    the beginning of the case, even more so when
    I was asked to testify in the case in federal
    court, and those people that have been
    strongly pressuring me I strongly suspect that
    they have contracts with persons from my past.
    Pabón continued:
    I will need the federal authorities, the
    F.B.I., to conduct a full investigation by
    intercepting the calls they make from the
    first moment I sit to testify as well their
    emails up to this day.    To me, my life has
    been full of worries since the moment these
    families have been harassing me. I will not
    show up on . . . the day of my sentencing.
    Because I want a new trial to be held to
    demonstrate to the court and the whole world
    everything that has happened to me.
    And Pabón ended:
    Therefore, please Counsel . . . don't insist
    on calling me for video conferences, because
    I will not attend, at my own expense. I am
    sick and tired of being harassed and I feel
    deceived in this case, which has been a
    nightmare to me. Enough abuse and I want a
    new trial.
    The   judge     postponed     Pabón's   previously     scheduled     sentencing
    hearing "until such time as [Pabón could] be mentally evaluated."
    Pointing   to   that   letter   Marcia   asked   the    judge   at
    December's end for "permission to file a motion" under Criminal
    Rule 37 "to request an evidentiary hearing . . . because of newly
    - 67 -
    discovered evidence."       Aurea and José joined her motion.               Before
    deciding that motion, the judge granted Pabón's lawyer's request
    and ordered the BOP to evaluate Pabón's competency for a third
    time.
    As the calendar turned to January 2021 Aurea again asked
    the judge to appoint an independent psychiatrist to examine Pabón.
    And   she   "incorporate[d]     the    argument     made      in   [her]   previous
    filings."    The judge denied that motion.              And Aurea appealed that
    denial (she also purported to appeal the denial of her end-of-
    December motion, even though the judge would not deny it until
    April 2021).
    Because the BOP did not conduct the third competency
    evaluation swiftly enough, the judge issued an order in April 2021
    telling the agency to get to it.           And the defendants jointly asked
    us to have the judge appoint an independent psychiatrist to
    evaluate Pabón and hold an evidentiary hearing to see if his "lack
    of    competence   and   deficits     in   his    ability     to   make    rational
    decisions    was   of    such   importance       that    it   should   have   been
    considered by the jury."
    That takes us to July 2021.            The BOP issued its third
    competency evaluation.          The psychologist again diagnosed Pabón
    with "antisocial personality disorder" but found he "[did] not
    currently have a mental disease or defect that would render him
    - 68 -
    unable to understand the nature and consequences of the proceedings
    against him or to assist properly in his defense."   A little later
    we denied the defendants' April 2021 motion pending before us (the
    one asking us to direct the judge to appoint an independent
    psychiatrist and conduct an evidentiary hearing) and told them to
    "place all of their appellate arguments and requests for relief in
    their opening briefs."
    Another detail worth noting is that in April 2022 the
    judge sentenced Pabón to 228 months in prison plus 4 years of
    supervised release.
    B
    Arguments and Analysis
    Against this intricate backdrop, the defendants (some or
    all of them) present three groups of concerns for us to address.
    The first involves Pabón's 2019 competency evaluation, his 2019
    letters to counsel, and the government's supposed Brady/Giglio
    infractions — issues that come here via the defendants' appeals
    from both the judge's denial of certain post-trial motions and
    their direct appeals from their criminal trial.         The second
    involves Pabón's 2020 competency evaluation and his 2020 letter to
    his lawyer and the judge — issues that come here via Aurea's and
    Marcia's appeals from the judge's denial of their post-trial
    motions. And the third involves Pabón's 2021 competency evaluation
    — issues that come here via the defendants' direct appeals from
    - 69 -
    their criminal trial.     For easy reference we label these groups
    (commonsensically but perhaps somewhat unimaginatively) as "First
    Group," "Second Group," and "Third Group." 27
    1
    First Group
    We   begin   with   the    defendants'   challenges   involving
    Pabón's 2019 competency evaluation, his 2019 letters to counsel,
    and the government's alleged Brady/Giglio violations.
    The defendants' initial attack centers on the judge's
    February 2020 denial of their post-trial requests under Criminal
    Rule 37 for indicative rulings on motions seeking (a) a new trial
    based on Brady/Giglio; (b) a new trial based on Pabón's 2019
    competency evaluation and his 2019 letters to counsel; (c) the
    appointment of an independent psychiatrist to evaluate Pabón;
    (d) the grant of post-trial discovery of all documents related to
    the 2019 competency evaluation; and (e) an evidentiary hearing to
    assess the evidence.
    The defendants appealed from the judge's February 2020
    denial in May 2020.     José withdrew his May 2020 appeal, however.
    27 A quick housekeeping matter. The government also argues
    that "[b]ecause no defendant filed a timely appeal of the
    Indicative Ruling" below, the law-of-the-case doctrine bars each
    of them from now appealing their subsequent challenges to that
    ruling. But given the other bases we identify for ruling in the
    government's favor (which we announce shortly), we consider the
    argument moot and so express no opinion on the subject.
    - 70 -
    So his challenges to that denial are not before us (but even if
    they    were,   they   would    wash   out   for   the   same   reasons     his
    codefendants' challenges do — as we are about to show).28
    Aurea and Marcia claim that their appeals are timely
    because (they write) nothing in Criminal Rule 37 or Appellate Rule
    12.1 "requires that an additional notice of appeal be filed within
    [] 14 days of the denial of a request for an indicative ruling"
    (their belief is that they did not have to file any other notices
    of appeal beyond their original (and timely) 2019 notices of appeal
    from the criminal trial).          But caselaw says that an additional
    appeal is required when a judge denies a motion pursuant to
    Criminal Rule 37.      See Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d at 50-52
    , 52
    n.19 (affirming the denial of appellants' Criminal Rule 33 motion
    —   filed   through    the     indicative-ruling    process     —   where   the
    government "agree[d] with [appellants]" that they had filed timely
    notices of appeal from that denial); see also United States v.
    Graciani, 
    61 F.3d 70
    , 77 (1st Cir. 1995) (noting that "[i]f the
    district court denies the [Criminal Rule 33] motion" filed during
    the pendency of the direct appeal, "the defendant may take a
    Our December 2021 order did say that the "[t]he merits
    28
    panel w[ould] decide whether to consider the post-conviction
    orders contained in [José's] supplemental addendum, which post-
    date defendant's direct appeal." But José does not suggest that
    that order entitles him to appellate review of the judge's February
    2020 decision. See Zannino, 
    895 F.2d at 17
    .
    - 71 -
    further appeal"); United States v. Fuentes-Lozano, 
    580 F.2d 724
    ,
    725-26 (5th Cir. 1978) (per curiam) (explaining that "[i]f upon
    hearing the [Criminal Rule 33] motion, the trial court is inclined
    to deny it, the court may do so; a separate appeal may then be
    taken from the denial of the motion and consolidated with the
    pending appeal").   See generally Jackson v. AT&T Ret. Sav. Plan,
    No. 21-30052, 
    2021 WL 2177674
    , at *1 (5th Cir. Mar. 31, 2021) (per
    curiam)   (dismissing   a   civil   appeal   from   the    denial   of   an
    "indicative ruling" on a Fed. R. Civ. P. 60(b) motion where the
    plaintiff's notice of appeal was untimely); Jordan v. Bowen, 
    808 F.2d 733
    , 736-37 (10th Cir. 1987) (holding that the denial of an
    "indicative ruling" on a Fed. R. Civ. P. Rule 60(b) motion filed
    while an appeal was pending was not before the court of appeals
    where "no appeal was taken" of that denial).29            A party is only
    required to "promptly notify the circuit clerk" under Appellate
    Rule 12.1 if the district court says that it would grant the
    underlying motion or that the motion raises a substantial issue.
    29Fed. R. Civ. P. 62.1 is the civil counterpart to Criminal
    Rule 37. These rules have the same text. And Criminal Rule 37
    explicitly "adopts . . . the practice that most courts follow when
    a party makes a motion under [Civil] Rule 60(b) . . . to vacate a
    judgment that is pending on appeal." Fed. R. Crim. P. 37 advisory
    committee's notes to 2011 amendment. We had already adopted Civil
    Rule 60(b)'s framework in the context of Criminal Rule 33 motions
    long before Criminal Rule 37 came on the scene. See Graciani, 
    61 F.3d at 77-78
    .
    - 72 -
    See Fed. R. Crim. P. 37(b); Fed. R. App. P. 12.1; see also United
    States v. Maldonado-Rios, 
    790 F.3d 62
    , 64-65 (1st Cir. 2015);
    United States v. Cardoza, 
    790 F.3d 247
    , 248-49 (1st Cir. 2015);
    Graciani, 
    61 F.3d at
    77 (citing United States v. Frame, 
    454 F.2d 1136
    , 1138 (9th Cir. 1972) (per curiam) (stating that "[o]nly after
    the district court has heard the [Criminal Rule 33] motion and
    decided to grant it is it necessary to request a remand from the
    appellate court")).30            So Aurea and Marcia had to — but did not —
    comply      with    Appellate      Rule    4(b)(1).       See   United   States    v.
    Reyes-Santiago, 
    804 F.3d 453
    , 459 (1st Cir. 2015) (noting that
    "[i]n a criminal case, a defendant's notice of appeal must be filed
    in the district court within 14 days after the later of:                   (i) the
    entry of either the judgment or the order being appealed; or (ii)
    the filing of the government's notice of appeal," and adding that
    "the     time      limits   in    [Appellate]      Rule    4(b),   'even   if     not
    Citing Walsh v. Wellfleet Commc'ns, No. 20-16385, 
    2021 WL 30
    4796537, at *3 (9th Cir. Oct. 14, 2021), Marcia argues that another
    notice of appeal is not needed because an "indicative ruling [is]
    not an appealable final order." But even assuming one could read
    the judge's decision only as a refusal to consider their underlying
    motions (or as an indication that he would deny them if he had
    jurisdiction), we do not see how that helps the defendants. After
    all, the Walsh court held that it "lacked jurisdiction" to review
    an "indicative ruling [that] was not an appealable final order."
    See 
    id.
     And Marcia says that our jurisdiction rests on 
    28 U.S.C. § 1291
     — a statute that gives us "jurisdiction over appeals from
    final decisions and orders of the district courts within this
    circuit."   See Royal Siam Corp. v. Chertoff, 
    484 F.3d 139
    , 142
    (1st Cir. 2007) (emphasis added).
    - 73 -
    jurisdictional, are mandatory when raised by the government'"
    (quoting United States v. Gonzalez-Rodriguez, 
    777 F.3d 37
    , 40 n.4
    (1st Cir. 2015))).    Cf. Eberhart v. United States, 
    546 U.S. 12
    , 17
    (2005) (confirming that certain "untimely notices of appeal [that]
    sprang from 'excusable neglect'" had to be "dismiss[ed] on the
    basis of untimeliness . . . because district courts must observe
    the clear limits of the Rules of Criminal Procedure when they are
    properly invoked" (quoting United States v. Robinson, 
    361 U.S. 220
    , 222 (1960))).
    Aurea and Marcia next argue that their May 2020 appeals
    are timely because we never surrendered jurisdiction over their
    direct appeals from their criminal trial and because they complied
    with our October 2019 order denying their remand request "without
    prejudice    to   [their]   following     the   procedures   set   forth   in
    [Criminal Rule] 37 and [Appellate Rule] 12.1."           But they cite no
    supporting    authority     for   these   never-surrendered-jurisdiction
    arguments.    See Zannino, 
    895 F.2d at 17
    .
    Aurea also tries to get mileage from our (a) December
    2019 order staying the defendants' direct appeals from their
    criminal trial and ordering them to "file status reports every
    thirty days advising this court of the status of the pending
    district court motions for indicative rulings"; (b) March 2020
    order continuing "the stay of [those direct] appeals" and requiring
    - 74 -
    the defendants to file "status reports every thirty days advising
    this court of the status of the district court proceedings related
    to defendants' motions for indicative rulings"; and (c) June 2020
    order lifting the stay of the appellate proceedings because the
    events related to the motions for indicative rulings in the
    district court had concluded.      But none of these orders purport
    either to excuse the defendants from appealing from the denial of
    their motions for post-trial relief or to (as Marcia seems to
    suggest) toll the time they could take a timely appeal from them
    (also the June 2020 order Aurea cites came after their May 2020
    appeals).31   And — on top of that problem — they cite no authority
    supporting their views.      See Zannino, 
    895 F.2d at 17
    .
    Aurea and Marcia reckon that their May 2020 appeals are
    timely because we "accepted" their notices and "consolidated" them
    with their direct appeals from their criminal trial.           But they
    again offer no supporting authority for that idea.       See 
    id.
    Marcia contends that her May 2020 appeal is timely
    because   Appellate   Rule   4(a)(1)(B)'s   60-day   window   to   appeal
    applied and because she filed that appeal soon after the judge
    31 To the extent the defendants think that our July 2021 order
    directing them to "place all of their appellate arguments and
    requests for relief in their opening briefs" makes a difference,
    they would be wrong — because that order came after the May 2020
    appeals as well.
    - 75 -
    "accepted and entertained" her motion for reconsideration.   But as
    already noted, Appellate Rule 4(a)(1)(B) refers to civil appeals
    and so does not apply here.      As for her reconsideration-based
    argument, the judge deemed her reconsideration motion "extremely
    overdue," having been filed "twenty days" late.   And "an untimely
    motion for reconsideration . . . [is] a nullity and [will] not
    toll the time in which to appeal even though the court considered
    and denied the motion on its merits."     Feinstein v. Moses, 
    951 F.2d 16
    , 18 (1st Cir. 1991) (first and second alterations in
    original) (emphasis added) (quoting Flint v. Howard, 
    464 F.2d 1084
    ,
    1086 (1st Cir. 1972)).
    Marcia argues as well that the government waived the
    timeliness challenge by waiting until its opening brief to make
    it.   But she provides no authority requiring the government to
    object to the untimeliness of an appeal — an issue solely within
    a court of appeals's purview — before it files its opening brief.
    Maybe that is because other courts have held the opposite of what
    she argues.   See, e.g., United States v. Singletary, 
    471 F.3d 193
    ,
    196 (D.C. Cir. 2006); United States v. Sadler, 
    480 F.3d 932
    , 940-
    41 (9th Cir. 2007); United States v. Garduño, 
    506 F.3d 1287
    , 1292
    (10th Cir. 2007); United States v. Sealed Appellant, 
    304 F. App'x 282
    , 284 (5th Cir. 2008); United States v. Lopez, 
    562 F.3d 1309
    ,
    1313 (11th Cir. 2009).   And while the government may waive such an
    - 76 -
    objection by not making the objection in its opening brief, see
    Reyes-Santiago, 
    804 F.3d at 459-60
    , no such problem occurred here.
    Aurea and Marcia also assert that we should "exercise
    [our] discretion" and review their challenges to the denial of
    their motions under Appellate Rule 4(b)(4)'s "excusable neglect
    standard."    But they make no developed argument that we have that
    kind   of   discretion   when   the    government       properly   invokes   the
    mandatory    claims-processing        rule   of   Appellate    Rule   4(b)(1).
    Marcia does cite United States v. Randall, 
    666 F.3d 1238
     (11th
    Cir. 2011), where an appellate court exercised discretion to
    consider an untimely appeal.            But there — unlike here — the
    government did not invoke the "inflexible claim-processing rule"
    (Randall     involved    an     application       for     a   certificate     of
    appealability, which per that circuit's rules meant the government
    could not file a response brief unless the court of appeals okayed
    it).   See id. at 1241.
    The defendants also touch on some of these or similar
    claims as part of their direct appeals from their criminal trial.
    For example, the defendants argue that the judge abused
    his discretion at the 2018 trial by not appointing an independent
    psychiatrist to see if Pabón could testify competently.               They also
    fault the judge for concluding in his 2020 indicative ruling that
    Pabón's behavior in the decade after the 2008 plea hearing did not
    - 77 -
    spark suspicions about his competency in 2018 — a glaring error
    (the argument continues) because BOP medical records show him
    diagnosed as schizophrenic five months after that hearing.            But no
    defendant cites any record evidence showing that the defense
    contested Pabón's competency before or during the 2018 trial.           And
    no defendant argues that these challenges survive plain-error
    analysis.     See Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d at
    49 n.15.              The
    defendants could be seen as suggesting that the judge had an
    independent duty to investigate Pabón's competency to testify in
    2018.   That suggestion is possible given claims (like those in
    José's brief) that the judge (a) knew before the trial that Pabón
    had undergone psychiatric treatment a decade earlier (information
    that emerged from the 2008 plea hearing); (b) heard on the eve of
    trial that Pabón had "excited[ly]" told prosecutors that he planned
    on breaking the plea agreement and would not cooperate any further;
    and   (c)   saw   at   trial   that    Pabón   had   testified   "vague[ly],
    bizarre[ly], contradictor[ily] and unresponsive[ly]."            But they do
    not substantiate any independent-duty suggestion with supporting
    authority.    See Zannino, 
    895 F.2d at 17
    .
    Aurea somewhat relatedly argues that the judge erred by
    "hastily determin[ing Pabón] was competent to plead [guilty in
    2008] without any further inquiry of mental conditions or even
    asking what medication he was taking."                But she develops no
    - 78 -
    argument that she can contest a judge's finding that another person
    could competently plead guilty in a proceeding that pre-dates her
    trial by ten years (i.e., that she has "standing" to make that
    claim, if you will).        See 
    id.
    Marcia and José also make Brady/Giglio claims as part of
    their direct appeals from their criminal trial. According to them,
    [t]he issue of intentional conduct by the
    government in refusing to produce the medical
    records of [Pabón] and the government's
    intentional conduct to hide the Giglio
    impeachment material occurred shortly before
    and during trial and as such, both issues of
    misconduct are part of the original appeal as
    they relate directly to the original judgment
    in that case.
    José also contends that the issue of "the prosecution's intentional
    misconduct" is properly before us because the defendants raised it
    in their September 2019 remand motion.              And Marcia argues that our
    considering    her    Brady/Giglio       claims    would    not    "surprise"   the
    government because she hyped them in the same joint remand motion
    José mentioned and because the general "issue of the prosecutors'
    misconduct     was     raised     at     the     [d]istrict       [c]ourt   before
    sentencing," even though the Brady/Giglio arguments "w[ere] not
    specifically     raised       [in]       the     [d]istrict       [c]ourt   before
    sentencing."         But   they   did    not     preserve   their    Brady/Giglio
    challenges in their direct appeals from their criminal trial,
    - 79 -
    because the September 2019 remand motion that they spotlight came
    after their direct appeals from their criminal trial.
    Aurea develops no argument that her Giglio claim is part
    of her direct appeal from her criminal trial.            See Zannino, 
    895 F.2d at 17
    .   She also admits that she received the medical records
    at the center of Marcia and José's Brady claim.          And she does not
    dispute that those same medical records included Pabón's 2008
    diagnosis of schizophrenia. Instead she insists that those records
    also show that before "trial [Pabón] was evaluated at his own
    request and diagnosed as not having a mental defect" and "the entry
    in said records is to the effect that [he] has no history of a
    mental condition."      Pivoting off that claim, she argues that the
    "[medical]    records    with    a   false   diagnoses    [sic]    unfairly
    prejudiced [her] defense . . . and deprived her of a fair trial
    and due process rights."        But she did not preserve this theory
    through her direct appeal from her criminal trial.                So we can
    review it at most (if at all) for plain error.           And because she
    does not try to address the plain-error test, she waived it.            See
    Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d at
    49 n.15.
    2
    Second Group
    With that (and at long last) we switch to Aurea's and
    Marcia's challenges involving Pabón's 2020 competency evaluation
    and his 2020 letter to his counsel and the judge — challenges that
    - 80 -
    attack the judge's denials of their motions for indicative rulings
    to permit post-trial discovery based on that evaluation (which
    changed    Pabón's   diagnosis       from     schizophrenia   to    antisocial
    personality disorder), appoint an independent psychiatrist to
    examine Pabón, and hold an evidentiary hearing based on both the
    evaluation and the letter.       The appeals raising these issues are
    docketed separately from the direct appeals from the criminal
    trial.32
    What sinks Aurea's and Marcia's claims, however, is that
    they failed to develop them.          For example, they do not cite any
    authority explaining either how evidence of Pabón's then-present
    competence   in   2020   to   help    his   own   defense   shows   he   lacked
    competence to testify against them in 2018 or how they can force
    him to undergo an independent psychiatric evaluation. See Zannino,
    
    895 F.2d at 17
    .
    Aurea does say that her request for post-trial discovery
    is "predicated on due process rights integral to exercising the
    substantive right that [Fed. R. Crim. P. 33(a)] creates for 'a new
    32José joined at least one of Marcia's and Aurea's motions
    below. But he did not appeal any of the judge's motion denials.
    So his challenges to Pabón's 2020 competency evaluation and his
    2020 letter are not before us.
    - 81 -
    trial i[f] the interest of justice so requires.'"33               And quoting a
    district court case that in turn quotes a couple Supreme Court
    opinions, she insists that "[e]ven though defendants do not have
    a 'free[-]standing right' to post[-]conviction discovery in this
    specific      case[,]    the    possible       avenues    of   discovery    are
    'fundamentally inadequate to vindicate the substantive rights
    provided' by [Criminal] Rule 33(a)."              But the Supreme Court has
    described any such right as a limited one.            See Dist. Att'y's Off.
    For   Third    Jud.   Dist.    v.   Osborne,   
    557 U.S. 52
    ,   67-69   (2009)
    (explaining that a convicted defendant's "right to due process is
    not parallel to a trial right, but rather must be analyzed in light
    of the fact that he has already been found guilty at a fair trial,
    and has only a limited interest in postconviction relief"); see
    also Tevlin v. Spencer, 
    621 F.3d 59
    , 69-70 (1st Cir. 2010) (same).
    And she develops no argument that she has a due-process right to
    post-trial discovery in her circumstances.               See Zannino, 
    895 F.2d at 17
    .
    3
    Third Group
    We end then with the defendants' challenges involving
    Pabón's 2021 competency evaluation — challenges that call their
    33Criminal Rule 33(a) says that "[u]pon the defendant's
    motion, the court may vacate any judgment and grant a new trial if
    the interest of justice so requires."
    - 82 -
    judgments of convictions into question because of the light that
    evaluation supposedly casts on Pabón's mental state before and
    during their trial.
    But   hurting     the    defendants       here     is    that    the    2021
    competency evaluation is not part of the record in their direct
    appeals from their criminal trial.                   True (as they note) they
    briefed this challenge following our July 2021 order that — after
    refusing to direct the judge to appoint an independent psychiatrist
    and hold an evidentiary hearing — told them to "place all of their
    appellate    arguments      and    request    for     relief    in    their    opening
    briefs."      But that order simply said that they should brief
    whatever "arguments" they wished to in their pending appeals from
    their criminal trial — it never said that they could make the 2021
    competency    evaluation      part    of   the      appellate       record    in   those
    appeals.     See generally Mount Vernon Fire Ins. Co. v. VisionAid,
    Inc., 
    875 F.3d 716
    , 726 n.10 (1st Cir. 2017) (holding that an order
    from us granting a party's request for supplemental briefing did
    not imply that "we would ignore longstanding" rules of appellate
    practice).
    The defendants also imply that if the 2021 competency
    evaluation    does    not    (on     its   own)      call    their     judgments      of
    convictions    into   question,       it     does    provide    grounds       for    the
    selection of an independent psychiatrist to assess Pabón. To their
    - 83 -
    way of thinking, the 2021 competency evaluation "contradict[ed]
    earlier BOP evaluations; "declare[d]" Pabón "competent, but by
    neatly    avoiding   conducting   relevant   testing   to   make   such   a
    determination"; and did not "address the fundamental question of
    whether [he] was delusional in 2018 and whether he can be restored
    to competency . . . with medical evidence."        Aurea adds that she
    should get post-trial discovery of the materials behind the 2021
    competency evaluation.     And José adds that he should also get a
    hearing based on the 2021 competency evaluation. But the predicate
    for these claims remains the 2021 competency evaluation — which
    again is not in the record in their direct appeals from their
    criminal trial, which also makes these claims hopeless.
    IX
    Wrap Up
    Having considered and rejected all of the defendants'
    many arguments, we affirm.34
    34We reject the defendants' request that we find reversible
    cumulative error from any combination of the errors they alleged
    above. That is because the aggregate effect of the instances where
    we invoked harmless error "do not come close to achieving the
    critical mass necessary to cast a shadow upon the integrity of the
    verdict." See United States v. Sepulveda, 
    15 F.3d 1161
    , 1196 (1st
    Cir. 1993). And to the extent the defendants think that one could
    pull other arguments from their briefs, we would consider those
    arguments waived. See Rodríguez, 
    659 F.3d at 175-76
    .
    One last bit of housekeeping. Aurea moved after oral argument
    to join certain issues pressed in Marcia's reply brief. Whatever
    else may be said of Aurea's effort, all we need say is that we
    - 84 -
    -Concurring and Dissenting Opinion Follows-
    deny her motion as "moot" because none of Marcia's reply-brief
    arguments moves the needle off our affirmance conclusion.  See
    United States v. Bennett, 
    75 F.3d 40
    , 49 (1st Cir. 1996).
    - 85 -
    LIPEZ, Circuit Judge, concurring in part and dissenting
    in   part.   Although   I    agree   with     my   colleagues   that    most   of
    appellants' claims of error fail, I strongly disagree that the
    district court judge permissibly advised the jury, via judicial
    notice, that he had found in 2008 that Alex Pabón Colon ("Pabón")
    was competent to plead guilty.           The majority finds no abuse of
    discretion in the court's decision to give that notice because
    "the judge carefully limited the notice to Pabón's plea competency
    in 2008" and "said nothing about Pabón's trial credibility in
    2018."     As I explain below, that rationale fails to withstand
    scrutiny, and the record indicates that the court's error caused
    serious prejudice to two of the appellants: Marcia Vázquez Rijos
    ("Marcia")35 and José Ferrer Sosa ("Ferrer).           Accordingly, Marcia's
    and Ferrer's convictions and sentences should be vacated.
    I. Background
    After   Pabón    provided      the    testimony    that,   in     the
    majority's words, "devastated the defendants' innocence theory,"
    defense counsel cross-examined him for roughly eight hours.                    The
    cross-examination was wide-ranging, with the defendants seeking to
    paint Pabón as someone who regularly bragged, exaggerated, and
    Like the majority, I refer to Marcia Vázquez Rijos and her
    35
    sister, Aurea Vázquez Rijos, by their first names to avoid
    confusion.
    - 86 -
    lied.     Their   effort     to   undermine    his   credibility   included
    questioning about statements he made in grand jury testimony in
    2008 and during FBI interviews, both of which included descriptions
    of the events surrounding Adam Anhang's death that differed from
    the account he had just given in his direct examination at trial.
    The defendants also implied that Pabón could not be trusted because
    of the deals he had made with the government.
    A central part of the defense strategy in attacking
    Pabón's credibility was to suggest that he was mentally unbalanced
    and thus an unreliable witness about the details of the murder.
    Among other inquiries, defense counsel asked him about a series of
    letters   that    he   had   written    both    before   and    during   his
    incarceration in which he used various ink colors and added stamps
    to the pages as decorations.           Many of the letters appeared to
    converse with celebrity figures with whom Pabón did not have a
    relationship. Pabón explained that he enjoyed writing to different
    people and that he saw his letters as "gifts" to the recipient and
    "art that comes from the heart." Throughout the cross-examination,
    Pabón rambled and, at times, provided answers that were not
    directly responsive to the questions asked of him.             He often gave
    answers containing irrelevant information and had to be reminded
    by the trial judge to answer the question asked of him.
    - 87 -
    Aurea's   attorney    was   the   only   defense   counsel   who
    explicitly asked Pabón about his mental health.          When introducing
    Pabón's plea agreement into evidence, she asked Pabón about the
    terms of that agreement and focused on the lower sentence he
    expected to receive.     The questioning included the following:
    Q: At that time, before this judge, were
    you asked as to your health; mental health?
    A: Yes, they did, I think.     I believe
    that I remember that they asked me something.
    Q: Okay.   And you stated to the Court
    here that you, at that time, had been with a
    psychiatrist because you had depression,
    correct?
    A: I think something like that.        I think
    I did, yes.
    Aurea's attorney also inquired into Pabón's mental health while he
    was in prison, including whether he took specific medications
    during his incarceration.        Counsel also asked if he had requested
    a psychological evaluation in 2018 "to prove that you were not
    crazy."36
    36 Pabón denied that he requested the evaluation and said
    "[i]t was the psychologist who came to me." The brief exchange
    concluded as follows:
    Q: So you never told her that you needed to
    prove that you were not crazy?
    A: She knows it since the beginning, and many
    people there know so.
    - 88 -
    When Pabón's testimony was complete, the government
    asked the court to take judicial notice of the fact that Pabón had
    been found competent to plead guilty in 2008. All three defendants
    objected, raising concerns about the impact of the requested
    judicial    notice    on   the   jury's    factfinding.       After    extensive
    colloquy,     the    court   decided      to   give   the   disputed    notice,
    acquiescing, in effect, to the government's argument that the court
    needed "to put the jury in perspective" about Pabón's mental health
    when he entered his guilty plea in 2008.                    In explaining his
    decision, the judge stated that he "ha[d] to balance the equities
    here."     Ferrer's attorney then argued, to no avail, that "[taking
    judicial notice of this fact] isn't fair because . . . as an
    attorney, I am competing with the Court, because the Court said he
    was competent."
    II. Competency vs. Credibility
    As I have described, the defense launched an all-out
    attack on Pabón's credibility that included questions designed to
    show that he had been mentally unstable for a long time and that,
    consequently, the jury should distrust his testimony about the
    details of Anhang's murder.         The government plainly was concerned
    that the defendants' aggressive cross-examination of Pabón might
    have raised doubts among the jurors about the reliability of his
    testimony.     The government understandably wanted to counter the
    - 89 -
    negative depiction of its star witness and restore his credibility.
    It could have attempted to do so in the redirect questioning it
    conducted    by   focusing   on    Pabón's    ability    to   understand      and
    accurately report on the events in which he was involved, including
    his decision to admit that he killed Anhang.                  The government
    instead asked the court to offset the damage from the cross-
    examination on Pabón's mental health by "complet[ing] the picture"
    with the challenged judicial notice.
    My colleagues reject appellants' contention that the
    judicial    notice   improperly    intruded    into     the   jury's   role    as
    factfinder on Pabón's credibility.       Emphasizing the distinction in
    the law between competency -- an issue for the court -- and
    credibility -- an issue for the jury, the majority seems to suggest
    that appellants have no basis for objecting to the court's accurate
    statement that it found Pabón competent to plead guilty in 2008.
    And the majority further emphasizes that appellants' challenge to
    the judicial notice falls flat because they failed to ask for an
    instruction    explaining    the    difference   between      competency      and
    credibility.
    To the extent the majority is relying on appellants'
    failure to request an explanatory instruction in finding no abuse
    of the district court's discretion, their reasoning falls short.
    Appellants made eminently clear that the judicial notice was
    - 90 -
    problematic because, regardless of the actual difference between
    the two concepts, the jury was likely to understand the court's
    statement on Pabón's competence as commentary on his credibility.
    In the district court, Marcia's attorney explicitly raised a
    concern about jury confusion, contrasting the legal and factual
    issues concerning Pabón's capacity:
    [W]e believe the instruction will confuse the
    jury because the competence that is discussed
    in the context of a change of plea hearing is
    a legal term. It is not necessarily a matter
    related to facts.   It is a legal term very
    specific to this. And I don't believe that
    the jury will be able to distinguish between
    the both, Your Honor.   It is too much of a
    risk to do so.
    On appeal, Ferrer notes the defense objection at trial "that the
    district court's instruction would cause confusion on the jury."
    He   asserts   that   the   prejudice    from   the   judicial   notice   "is
    compounded by the fact that the district court did not explain to
    the jury what it meant to be found competent to plead guilty" and
    that, consequently, "the district court placed its imprimatur on
    [Pabón]'s credibility."         In my view, these arguments clearly
    express appellants' concern that the judicial notice would (and
    did) compromise the jury's factfinding on Pabón's credibility and,
    for that reason, was improper.
    Moreover, the majority's treatment of the merits --
    particularly    their   focus    on     the   legal   distinction   between
    - 91 -
    competency and credibility -- seriously misses the mark.                     As the
    majority acknowledges, there was no challenge to Pabón's capacity
    to be a witness at trial and therefore his "competency" in the
    sense      of    an   individual's      ability     to   understand    the    legal
    proceedings in which he was involved was never relevant in this
    case.      The question for the jury at trial was whether Pabón was a
    reliable, believable witness.              Defense counsel heavily emphasized
    Pabón's bizarre behavior and mental health treatment over many
    years as one factor, among others, for discrediting his testimony.
    In other words, the defense challenged Pabón's "competency" only
    in   the    sense     that    nonlawyers    would   understand    that   concept,
    suggesting that Pabón's testimony about the murder was unreliable
    because of his long history of mental illness.
    The defense reliance on this understanding of competency
    is apparent in the concern expressed by Ferrer's attorney at trial,
    and echoed on appeal, that the proposed instruction would place
    "the imprimatur of the Court upon the issue, which is an issue of
    fact."          Although     defense   counsel    used   the   term   "competence"
    throughout the colloquy on the government's request for judicial
    notice -- a potentially confusing way to make their point -- it
    was obvious that they were opposing the court's interference with
    the jury's factfinding and, hence, were necessarily referring to
    the jury's credibility determination.
    - 92 -
    Yet, despite defense counsel's making it clear that the
    defendants were not challenging Pabón's competency to testify or
    otherwise engage in legal proceedings, the government insisted
    that the judicial notice was needed to rebut such a challenge.
    And, in seeking the court's intervention on that basis, the
    prosecutor   incorrectly   characterized     the    defense   argument   as
    unusual: "They are making the issue of his competency.              . . .
    Normally that part goes without saying, but because it is an issue
    in this case brought by the Defense, the jury is entitled to have
    the whole package."
    The "package" the court could properly give to the jury,
    however, did not include Pabón's competency to enter the guilty
    plea. In the context of the defense strategy, the district court's
    judicial notice that it had found "Alex El Loco" competent at that
    time -- despite his apparently longstanding mental illness and
    bizarre past behaviors -- spoke directly to the jury on Pabón's
    credibility.     That   intervention    by    the    court    created    the
    unacceptable risk that the jurors understood the judicial notice
    of the competency finding to reflect the trial judge's view that
    Pabón's mental illness did not make him untrustworthy -- regardless
    of the jury's perception of his performance on the witness stand.
    It thus does not matter that the instruction specifically referred
    to a time well before the 2018 trial.        By instructing the jury on
    - 93 -
    its   finding   of   Pabón's   competence   in   2008,   the    judge   was
    inescapably telling the jury that its finding was relevant to the
    jury's evaluation of Pabón's credibility at trial.
    That very concern was voiced by Marcia's counsel: "What
    they want from the Court is to create an effect and . . . to
    influence the jury that [Pabón] is of a state of mind different to
    that that was presented to them through the presentation of
    evidence, cross-examination and direct examination."           Indeed, with
    Pabón's "legal" competency to testify not at issue, the jury had
    no basis for understanding the judicial notice as other than a
    veiled commentary on his credibility.        And that, of course, was
    precisely what the government was hoping to accomplish with its
    request for judicial notice.
    To be clear, I am not saying that evidence of Pabón's
    mental capacity, as a rebuttal to the defense's attack on his
    credibility, was impermissible.      Rather, the problem is that the
    court itself informed the jury that it had found Pabón competent
    -- highlighting and thereby elevating the importance of that fact
    -- when the government should have borne full responsibility for
    rehabilitating the credibility of its key witness and persuading
    the jury of appellants' guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. The court
    thus plainly abused its discretion when it chose to "balance the
    equities" by giving the requested judicial notice instead of
    - 94 -
    leaving the burden on the government -- where it belonged -- to
    "complete the picture" on Pabón's mental health.
    The trial court's intervention on the issue of Pabón's
    credibility is no small matter.    We have oft noted the impact that
    a court's words may have on jurors.      See, e.g., United States v.
    Moffett, 
    53 F.4th 679
    , 685 (1st Cir. 2022) (observing that "'the
    influence of the trial judge on the jury is necessarily and
    properly of great weight' and [the] trial judge's 'lightest word
    or intimation is received with deference'" (quoting Starr v. United
    States, 
    153 U.S. 614
    , 626 (1894))); United States v. Márquez-
    Pérez, 
    835 F.3d 153
    , 158 (1st Cir. 2016) (noting that judges
    "should be most cautious in front of the jury, which may be
    vulnerable to judges' 'lightest word or intimation'" (quoting
    United States v. Ayala-Vazquez, 
    751 F.3d 1
    , 28 (1st Cir. 2014))).
    That   influence   is   particularly   sensitive   in   the   realm   of
    credibility. When judges "exercise their power to actively involve
    themselves at trial, they must remain constantly vigilant to ensure
    they do not infringe upon the province of the jury by commenting
    or appearing to comment (positively or negatively) on a witness's
    credibility."   Ayala-Vazquez, 
    751 F.3d at 28
     (emphasis added); see
    also United States v. Starks, 
    861 F.3d 306
    , 310 (1st Cir. 2017)
    (noting the impropriety of "judicial statements adding information
    to the record that bears on a witness's credibility").
    - 95 -
    Unsurprisingly,      judicial     statements    touching    on
    credibility are especially problematic when they bear on the
    testimony of a critical witness.          In United States v. Raymundí-
    Hernández, we explained that "[w]here the Government builds its
    case against criminal defendants predominantly on cooperating
    witness testimony, . . . 'the [district] court must take particular
    care to avoid any appearances that it favors the government's view
    of the case.'"    
    984 F.3d 127
    , 152 (1st Cir. 2020) (per curiam)
    (second alteration in original) (quoting United States v. Rivera-
    Rodríguez, 
    761 F.3d 105
    , 120 (1st Cir. 2014)).        We found that the
    trial court "cause[d] serious prejudice" in Raymundí-Hernández
    when commenting that a defense witness's testimony, which was
    designed to undermine the credibility of a cooperating witness,
    was "not relevant in this case."      
    Id. at 152-53
    .
    In the circumstances here, the bland instruction that
    "the jurors remain[] the sole deciders of witness credibility"
    does not suffice to cure the harm from the court's decision to --
    in effect -- "complete the picture" on Pabón's believability as a
    witness.     As   we   stated   in   Raymundí-Hernández,    "where    the
    reliability of witness testimony is so strongly implicated (here,
    that of the cooperating witnesses against that of the defense
    witnesses), 'such interference with jury fact-finding cannot be
    cured by standard jury instructions.'" 984 F.3d at 153-54 (quoting
    - 96 -
    United States v. Tilghman, 
    134 F.3d 414
    , 421 (D.C. Cir. 1998)).37
    Indeed, telling the jurors that they remain the decisionmakers on
    credibility allows them to use whatever evidence they heard --
    including the court's judicial notice -- in making their judgment.
    The majority makes much of the fact that both the
    government and the defense treated Pabón's credibility as a live
    issue in addressing the jury during closing arguments.                       It is
    certainly no surprise that the lawyers argued that point.                       The
    problem with the judicial notice in this case is not that the
    district       court   entirely    preempted    the   jury's    factfinding      on
    Pabón's credibility, but that it weighed in on the government's
    behalf.     Given the judicial notice, the burden on the defendants
    to create doubt about Pabón's credibility was greater than it
    should have been, and the defense's arguing "with gusto" -- in the
    majority's words -- was simply counsel doing their job.                     Nor did
    the government's arguments in any way offset the impact of the
    court's intervention.        The predictable and traditional credibility
    arguments in closing plainly provide no support for the majority's
    view    that    the    court's    ill-advised   intrusion      into   the    jury's
    factfinding was appropriate.
    Although Raymundí-Hernández does not involve a judicial-
    37
    notice challenge -- as the majority points out -- the underlying
    concern expressed there about interference in the jury's
    factfinding on witness credibility is equally apt in this context.
    - 97 -
    In sum, in acceding to the government's request that the
    court inform the jurors through judicial notice that it determined
    that Pabón was competent when he entered his guilty plea in 2008,
    the court assisted the prosecution on arguably the most important
    issue in the case for the defense: Pabón's credibility.                       The
    judge's explanation for doing so -- that he "ha[d] to balance the
    equities"    in     the   aftermath    of   Pabón's    cross-examination       --
    reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the court's role.                   It
    was for the government, not the judge, to undo any damage to
    Pabón's credibility caused by the defense's attack on Pabón's
    mental   stability.         The   court's       intrusion   into   the   jury's
    factfinding -- by adding its "great weight" to the prosecution's
    case, Starr, 
    153 U.S. at
    626 -- was a palpable abuse of discretion.
    III. The Question of Prejudice
    The district court's error inescapably had the effect of
    bolstering    the    testimony    of    Pabón    to   the   detriment    of   the
    defendants.       The remaining question is whether the error was
    sufficiently prejudicial that appellants are entitled to a new
    trial.   We have noted some uncertainty in our caselaw about the
    applicable standard of harmless error when the trial judge has, in
    effect, "commented on the credibility" of a key witness and "put
    additional facts before the jury that bore on the witness['s]
    credibility."       Starks, 
    861 F.3d at
    310 & n.1.             Although Aurea
    - 98 -
    argues    that   the    court's    error    is   constitutional    in   nature,
    requiring the government to prove that it was "harmless beyond a
    reasonable doubt,"       see,     e.g.,    Moffett,   53 F.4th at 691, the
    circumstances here are equivalent to the sort of improper judicial
    intervention     that   our   court    repeatedly     has    assessed   under   a
    "serious prejudice" standard -- i.e., asking whether "there is a
    reasonable probability that, but for the error, the verdict would
    have been different," Rivera-Rodríguez, 761 F.3d at 112; see also,
    e.g., Raymundí-Hernández, 984 F.3d at 152-53.               I therefore use the
    "serious prejudice" standard in reviewing the evidence against
    each appellant.38
    Hence, to determine harmlessness, it is necessary to ask
    whether it is "reasonably probable" that the jury would have
    reached the same verdict for each defendant if the court had not
    informed the jurors that Pabón was deemed competent at the time of
    38In Moffett, the error at issue involved a verdict form and
    related instructions that "invaded the jury's power over
    factfinding by over-emphasizing certain of the government's
    evidence in a manner that was contrary to [the defendant]'s
    interests."   53 F.4th at 686.     We considered the error "of a
    'constitutional dimension'" and used the beyond-a-reasonable-doubt
    formulation of harmless error. Id. at 691 (quoting United States
    v. Rivera-Santiago, 
    107 F.3d 960
    , 967 (1st Cir. 1997) (per
    curiam)).   Here, as I have explained, the court's error likely
    influenced the jury's assessment of Pabón's credibility, but I
    cannot say that it "'usurped the jury's factfinding role'" on that
    issue or on appellants' guilt.       Id. at 686 (emphasis added)
    (quoting Rivera-Santiago, 
    107 F.3d at 965
    ).
    - 99 -
    his plea -- a fact that the jurors reasonably could have understood
    as an implicit observation on the credibility of Pabón's testimony
    at trial.    Put differently, did the guilty verdicts likely depend
    on the credibility of Pabón, whose veracity was improperly enhanced
    by the judicial notice?
    Pabón was the critical witness at trial. As the majority
    recounts, he testified that the three appellants planned the crime
    and hired him to carry it out.        Given Pabón's importance to the
    government's case, assessing the likely impact of the court's
    improper boosting of his credibility requires determining whether
    sufficient evidence other than Pabón's testimony supported the
    jury's findings of guilt for each of the threesome.
    A. Aurea Vázquez Rijos
    The government's case against Aurea included evidence
    showing a strong motive, planning steps, and efforts to impede law
    enforcement's investigation of the crime.          The record before the
    jury   included   Aurea   and   Anhang's    prenuptial   agreement,   which
    provided Aurea with a substantial inheritance if Anhang died and
    much less if the couple divorced.      Witness testimony revealed that
    Aurea and Anhang's marriage was turbulent, that Anhang came to
    believe the prenuptial agreement gave too much to Aurea, and that
    Anhang was seeking a divorce within weeks of the wedding.              The
    government's theory that Aurea wanted to kill her husband and avoid
    - 100 -
    a divorce was supported by witness accounts of comments she had
    made, including that she would be "better off" if her husband died
    than if he were alive.
    The evidence that Aurea planned the murder included
    testimony from two witnesses who said she had asked them if they
    knew a "hit man," a question one of them understood to mean she
    was looking to hire one.           The government also offered testimony
    that    Aurea    had   called   Anhang's   office   repeatedly       during   the
    afternoon preceding his evening murder to confirm the couple's
    dinner plans, permitting an inference that her "insistent calls"
    were made to ensure that they would be in Old San Juan at the time
    she had arranged for the attack.
    Aurea's      behavior     after    Anhang's      death    also    was
    suspicious      and    seemingly    designed   to   impede    and    evade    law
    enforcement's attempts to investigate the murder and prosecute the
    case.     One agent testified that Aurea gave him an incorrect
    description of the perpetrator, including clothing details that
    did not match those given by other eyewitnesses.                She failed to
    appear at the prosecutor's office in response to a summons, and
    law enforcement's multiple efforts to arrange an interview with
    her were unsuccessful.          The evidence revealed that Aurea moved to
    Italy soon after the murder, which the government characterized as
    "flight."       Aurea also sought the assistance of a criminal defense
    - 101 -
    attorney in Israel, explaining to him that she wanted to move to
    Israel but wanted to know if she would be protected there "[i]f
    there was ever an order of extradition [from the United States]
    with the death sentence."
    In sum, while Pabón's testimony that Aurea hired him to
    kill her husband reinforced the prosecution's narrative, there was
    ample and compelling evidence from sources other than Pabón to
    support a finding that Aurea was motivated to kill Anhang and
    developed a plan to get the deed done.          I thus cannot conclude
    that it is "reasonably probable" that, absent the district court's
    error, the jury would have acquitted Aurea.
    B. Marcia Vázquez Rijos
    By contrast with the evidence from multiple sources
    suggesting Aurea's guilt, the government's evidence against Marcia
    -- other than Pabón's testimony -- was far from compelling.          The
    sinister connotation of the evidence against her depended heavily
    on Pabón's testimony that she had conspired with the others to
    murder   Anhang.   Indeed,   the   majority's    analysis   of   Marcia's
    sufficiency challenge relies almost entirely on Pabón's testimony.
    The thinness of the case against Marcia is apparent from
    a review of the other evidence offered by the government.            The
    government easily proved the uncontroverted fact that Marcia knew
    Pabón and had done business with him before the murder.               An
    - 102 -
    employee at the Pink Skirt, a restaurant that Anhang had purchased
    for Aurea, testified that she sometimes saw Marcia with Pabón
    there.   A friend of Pabón's, Derick Osterman Kim, testified that
    Marcia on occasion bought marijuana from Pabón.         This evidence of
    her prior relationship with Pabón obviously provides no support
    for a finding that Marcia was involved in a conspiracy to pay Pabón
    to murder Anhang.
    Nor   is   the    evidence   of   Marcia's   conduct   following
    Anhang's death sufficient. Most suggestively, a friend of Pabón's,
    Isadoro Perez-Muñoz, testified about letters Pabón asked him to
    deliver to the Pink Skirt on three separate occasions.           The first
    letter was intended for Aurea, but she was not at the Pink Skirt
    when Perez-Muñoz arrived to deliver it.         Perez-Muñoz brought the
    letter back to Pabón, who directed him to deliver the letter to
    Marcia the next day.       Marcia read the letter and gave Perez-Muñoz
    a message for Pabón: her sister was sick and depressed, she had no
    money because Anhang's father had cancelled her accounts, the
    family was in crisis, and "the business was going bad."             Perez-
    Muñoz delivered the second letter to Marcia, at Pabón's direction.
    After reading the letter, Marcia instructed Perez-Muñoz to tell
    Pabón that she had "already told [him] the situation and nothing
    can be done."   She then went on to say "no to the money," Aurea
    "is still with the depression," "the business isn't going well and
    - 103 -
    . . . we are in a crisis; the accounts are frozen."         The third
    time, when Perez-Muñoz went to the Pink Skirt with two letters,
    neither Aurea nor Marcia was there, but he encountered the women's
    brother, Charbel, and Ferrer.      Both men refused to take the
    correspondence, which Perez-Muñoz took home and later read.       One
    letter, which was read to the jury, was addressed to "Marcial,"
    but it includes a closing addressed to both "Audrea39 or Marcial."
    The four-page letter, dated March 3, 2006, stated in part:
    I don't want any excuses and I am truly
    counting on you to help me with this big favor.
    You denied me the $30,000 I asked you to lend
    me. . . . Well, now I need $200,000 in order
    to support myself and for expenses, debts, and
    other things I cannot tell you about.
    Marcial, with all due respect, I want you
    to talk to your sister and tell her that I
    need that money by March 12th or March 18th,
    2006. . . . [Y]our sister has not shown up to
    court, and now, and the last time I heard from
    her, she was hiding and about to flee the
    country. What is happening with you? I need
    favors from you and you are hiding from me
    . . ..
    . . . I made it very clear to you, I have
    dealings with your husband Jose and your
    sister Audrea. And tell both of them that I
    am asking this second favor and the second one
    is the last one.
    . . . After all this happened, you think that
    I am a dumb ass, but the truth is that I am
    not. I am not afraid to face this case which
    39Throughout the letter, Pabón refers to Marcia as "Marcial" and
    Aurea as "Audrea."
    - 104 -
    has become very ugly. Things didn't turn out
    the way we thought they would, but only I did
    you a big favor. I didn't know this person.
    For you, he was a bump in the road which got
    in your way.
    . . .
    . . . [Y]our sister told [a friend of mine]
    . . . that she is not going to pay absolutely
    anything because you were not completely in
    agreement with the favor I did for you because
    it had caused you a lot of problems. The truth
    is that I was not going to be the one to do
    the favor to her. You became very anxious and
    you did not give me the correct coordinates,
    and it happened very quickly, and it was a
    little crazy, but I accomplished what she
    wanted. Now, I need a favor from you.
    . . .
    . . . I don't give a damn if the victim's old
    man kept everything. . . . I am making this
    clear; if you let me down, I will betray you
    also. . . .
    So, good fences make good neighbors.
    Well, remember, all of us are very much
    involved in this. So work with me and I will
    always be true to you. . . . .
    Now, send me the money that I am asking
    you and everything should continue as is.
    Don't let me down. Hope it's clear. Okay. I
    will be waiting for the favor I asked you.
    Audrea or Marcial, I will call you soon.
    Although Pabón's demands and threats to Marcia in this
    letter are consistent with the government's narrative of her
    involvement in the murder conspiracy, that evidence is equally
    consistent with Marcia's knowing what happened but having played
    - 105 -
    no role in the planning.       Pabón's communications show only that,
    having initially failed to reach Aurea herself, Pabón began using
    Marcia as a go-between in his attempts to extract money from Aurea
    after the crime.     Even his assertion that "all of us are very much
    involved in this" indicates only that, months after Anhang's death,
    Marcia was "involved" in protecting her sister from prosecution.
    It is Pabón's testimony concerning Marcia's involvement in the
    planning that turns the correspondence into damning evidence.
    Moreover, to the extent Pabón's credibility was bolstered by the
    district    court,     that    validation        would     extend     to    this
    communication.
    The government also adduced evidence that Marcia was at
    Anhang's apartment the day after the murder.             One witness said she
    carried    black   garbage    bags    containing     clothing   out    of    the
    apartment, another said that Marcia took Anhang's cats away, and
    a third testified that Marcia emerged from Anhang's apartment with
    keys, two cell phones, a phone charger, and a CD.               But Marcia's
    appearance at Anhang's apartment is not probative evidence of her
    involvement in planning his murder.            Aurea was in the hospital at
    that time, and there is nothing facially inculpatory about Marcia's
    retrieving cats that needed to be cared for and other items from
    an apartment where her sister's husband had been living.
    - 106 -
    Adding to the ambiguous evidence is a series of emails
    between Marcia and Aurea indicating that Marcia helped her sister
    create fraudulent documents about her Jewish roots.40            Also among
    the emails between the sisters is a message from Marcia describing
    a conversation she had with their brother, Charbel:
    Charbel he is screwed with me because I will
    treat him like a stranger.     He deserves it.
    He is the pure devil. He said -- and atrocity
    that I and Jose planned everything and that is
    -- he have this karma that it's my fault. What
    a fucked up crazy. . . . Don't you know that
    they are recording everything and everything
    you say they will believe it and we are going
    to get screwed by your fault . . ..
    Again,    this   message   can   be   construed   consistently      with   the
    government's narrative that Marcia conspired with Aurea (along
    with Ferrer), but it is also easily understood to express Marcia's
    outrage that Charbel is accusing her and Ferrer of a crime they
    did not commit. Indeed, if the message is read to refer to Anhang's
    murder, it would appear to exclude Aurea from involvement -- an
    implausible scenario.        It is more plausible that the message
    reflects    Marcia's   frustration      about     her   brother's    "crazy"
    accusation or refers only to Marcia's and Ferrer's post-crime
    assistance to Aurea.
    40 The government produced evidence showing that Aurea
    attempted to obtain the protection of the Jewish community in
    Florence, Italy, by falsely holding herself out as Jewish.
    - 107 -
    One   other   email   exchange    between    Marcia     and    Aurea
    warrants consideration.      Marcia warned her sister to be careful of
    "a lot of enemies [who are] close who you owe for a long time,"
    noted that Ferrer was in bad shape "economically and emotionally"
    -- referring to his family difficulties -- and said she did not
    want Ferrer to think that she had abandoned him and "that we used
    him."     In her reply, Aurea says "I am really sorry that you feel
    like that . . ..     I am more sorry that Jose feels that way too,
    but we are all in the same boat."           The comment that the three of
    them are "in the same boat" obviously is consistent with the
    government's theory that all three defendants plotted and carried
    out the murder.     But -- assuming it refers to Anhang's killing at
    all -- it is equally consistent with Marcia and Jose entering "the
    boat" after the murder had been committed by helping Aurea avoid
    prosecution.41
    The   evidence   apart   from    Pabón's    testimony    was    thus
    suggestive, but plainly inadequate to support Marcia's conviction
    beyond a reasonable doubt for conspiring to arrange a murder-for-
    hire.     The government relied on Pabón's testimony -- improperly
    41  Indeed, multiple members of Aurea's family helped to
    protect her in the aftermath of the murder, including her mother,
    brother, and sister. Aurea's brother, Charbel, was charged with
    several related crimes and eventually was sentenced to twenty-four
    months' imprisonment on a count charging him with obstruction of
    justice.
    - 108 -
    bolstered by the court's judicial notice -- to fill in the gaps in
    its circumstantial narrative of Marcia's guilt.                    Without his story
    of her collaboration, the evidence shows only that Marcia knew
    Pabón before the murder and that she took actions after the murder
    that   supported     her     sister   but     do    not    on    their     own   reflect
    complicity in a conspiracy. With the limited evidence that remains
    if Pabón's testimony is discounted, I can only conclude that the
    district     court's       improper     judicial       notice      caused        "serious
    prejudice" to Marcia's defense.               Raymundí-Hernández, 984 F.3d at
    152.
    C. Jose Ferrer Sosa
    As    with     Marcia,      the    majority         dispatches       Ferrer's
    sufficiency claim by citing Pabón's testimony and observing that
    Pabón's credibility was a jury judgment.                   But the paucity of the
    untainted evidence against Ferrer is notable.
    The government established the inconsequential fact that
    Ferrer, a cook at the Pink Skirt, knew Pabón and had bought
    marijuana    from    him.       After    the       murder,      multiple     government
    witnesses testified that they saw Ferrer approach Aurea's Porsche
    Cayenne in the parking lot of Anhang's apartment on the day after
    his death.       Ferrer's presence at Anhang's home that day, and his
    attempt     to    retrieve     the    vehicle       that     testifying      witnesses
    - 109 -
    consistently said belonged to Aurea, hardly constitutes evidence
    that he was involved in planning the murder.42
    Other    witnesses    provided       somewhat    more       probative
    evidence against Ferrer, but none of it is sufficient to establish
    his guilt for the charged conspiracy beyond a reasonable doubt.
    As described above, Perez-Muñoz testified that he tried to deliver
    one of Pabón's letters to Ferrer, but Ferrer would not accept it.
    According to Perez-Muñoz, Pabón had instructed him to deliver the
    letter "to any one of them, because Alex told me that all of them
    knew what happened."      Even if the jury took this statement as true,
    "knowing"   what    had   happened      to   Anhang   differs    from    being   a
    participant in a conspiracy.         Similarly, Marcia's email to Aurea
    reporting that Charbel had accused Marcia and Jose of "plann[ing]
    everything" is no more revealing of Ferrer Sosa's involvement than
    it is of Marcia's.
    The    government    also    used    a    facially   benign    email
    exchange between Ferrer and Marcia as evidence of his culpability.
    42A Puerto Rico Police Department officer who detained Ferrer
    when he was "attempting to get the Porsche Cayenne" testified that
    Ferrer said that Marcia had asked him to get the vehicle. Aurea
    testified that Anhang gave her the deposit for the Porsche as a
    birthday gift and that she was making the monthly lease payments.
    Consistent with that testimony, the purchase-and-sale agreement
    described at trial listed Aurea as the buyer of the Porsche. Aurea
    and Anhang drove to the restaurant the night of the murder in
    Anhang's BMW, leaving the Porsche outside Anhang's apartment
    building.
    - 110 -
    Ferrer asked Marcia for "donations (in cash and in dollars please)
    to help the young adult Jose Ferrer, who is in need of everything."
    He also told Marcia that she could "tell Aury that if she wants to
    donate the most she can, she can give it to you and you can bring
    it."     The government suggested that these emails represent Ferrer
    asking for hush money -- i.e., "money for him to stay in line."
    That inference, however, is unsupported by anything on the face of
    the messages.
    To be sure, in his testimony, Ferrer offered an odd
    explanation for the "donations" -- he said he was using that
    terminology to ask for repayments on a loan he had made to the
    Vázquez Rijos family.     But neither his request for funds nor his
    testimony explaining it indicates in any way that he participated
    in a conspiracy to kill Anhang.     Indeed, Ferrer's email requests
    for "donations" are interspersed in an exchange of messages with
    Marcia that include expressions of love for each other and regards
    from Marcia to Ferrer's dogs and family members.    In one message,
    Marcia asks him about his pants size and suggests that he needed
    money for essential items: "Remind me if you are still 32 for
    pants.     That is what you most need, right?"   It is only Pabón's
    testimony that even arguably contextualizes Ferrer's solicitation
    of "donations" as requests for a payoff related to the murder.
    - 111 -
    Hence, as with Marcia, I cannot conclude that it is
    "reasonably probable" that the jury would have reached the same
    verdict on the conspiracy charge against Ferrer if the court had
    not added to the evidence on Pabón's credibility with its judicial
    notice.   Indeed, the court itself implied that the entirety of the
    government's case against Ferrer was Pabón's testimony.         During
    his defense case, Ferrer sought to introduce a witness who had
    been in the courtroom during Pabón's testimony.       During a sidebar
    conference about whether the witness was compromised and therefore
    unable to testify for Ferrer, the district court remarked that "if
    [the witness] heard the testimony of . . . Pabón Colón, if he heard
    that testimony, he heard the entire evidence relating to your
    client.   He heard it completely."
    IV.    Conclusion
    The jury verdicts in this case resulted in life sentences
    for each of the three defendants.         It is therefore unsurprising
    that their advocates have raised numerous challenges to the way
    the trial and sentencings proceeded.       The lack of merit in most of
    those claims should not deter us from acknowledging the very real
    harm caused to Marcia and Ferrer by the district court's improper
    intervention on behalf of the government on the key issue of
    Pabón's credibility.   The court should not have provided judicial
    notice to the jurors that it found Pabón competent to enter his
    - 112 -
    guilty plea in 2008.   Marcia and Ferrer's convictions inescapably
    are flawed because of that error, and they are therefore entitled
    to a new trial.   Accordingly, I must respectfully dissent from the
    majority's decision to affirm their convictions.
    - 113 -
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 21-1098

Filed Date: 10/15/2024

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 10/15/2024