United States v. Dominguez ( 2021 )


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  •                                                                      FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    Tenth Circuit
    June 2, 2021
    PUBLISH                  Christopher M. Wolpert
    Clerk of Court
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    TENTH CIRCUIT
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff - Appellee,
    v.                                               Nos. 19-8021 & 19-8022
    CHRISTOPHER DOMINGUEZ,
    Defendant - Appellant.
    Appeals from the United States District Court
    for the District of Wyoming
    (D.C. No. 2:18-CR-00186-NDF-1)
    (D.C. No. 2:17-CR-00098-NDF-3)
    Grant R. Smith, Assistant Federal Public Defender (Virginia L. Grady, Federal
    Public Defender, with him on the briefs), Office of the Federal Public Defender,
    Denver, Colorado, for Defendant-Appellant.
    Stuart S. Healy, III, Assistant United States Attorney (L. Robert Murray, Acting
    United States Attorney, with him on the brief), Office of the United States
    Attorney, District of Wyoming, Cheyenne, Wyoming, for Plaintiff-Appellee.
    Before HOLMES, Circuit Judge, LUCERO, Senior Circuit Judge, and EID,
    Circuit Judge.
    HOLMES, Circuit Judge.
    Christopher Dominguez appeals from the district court’s denial of his
    motion to withdraw his guilty plea. He contends that his plea is invalid for two
    reasons: first, he did not knowingly and intelligently plead guilty, and second, he
    did not receive the requisite “close assistance” of counsel in making his plea.
    Based on these contentions, he asks that we reverse the district court’s decision
    and remand with instructions to vacate his plea. We decline to do so. Despite his
    arguments to the contrary, Mr. Dominguez does not convince us that he
    unknowingly and unintelligently pleaded guilty or that he did not receive “close
    assistance” of counsel. Accordingly, exercising jurisdiction under 
    28 U.S.C. § 1291
    , we affirm the district court’s judgment.
    I
    This case arises from Mr. Dominguez’s involvement in a series of robberies
    in New Mexico and Wyoming. On December 3, 2016, Mr. Dominguez was
    arrested along with two other suspects, Antoine Mitchell and Moses D. Dickens
    III, for the armed robbery on that same day of the Medicine Shoppe Pharmacy in
    Raton, New Mexico. There were a number of salient features of the robbery. The
    robbery was committed by only three men. Prior to the robbery, the robbers had
    stolen a vehicle, which they used during the robbery and abandoned thereafter.
    During the robbery, the robbers wore face coverings, displayed firearms, and
    ordered the pharmacy employees to load certain drugs into black trash bags that
    the robbers supplied. The robbers identified the requested drugs by name,
    2
    specifically mentioning “Oxy 30,” by which they apparently meant Oxycontin and
    Oxycodone.
    After Mr. Dominguez and his cohorts were arrested, the Raton Police
    Department posted information concerning the robbery, including photos, on the
    Department’s Facebook page. This post drew the attention of a pharmacist who
    had been shot during a robbery of the Medicap Pharmacy in Cheyenne, Wyoming,
    on October 6, 2016. The salient features of that robbery closely resembled those
    of the Raton, New Mexico, robbery. However, notably, the robbers in the
    Wyoming robbery of the Medicap Pharmacy obtained the stolen vehicle used in
    the robbery by carjacking a female victim. Moreover, not only did they display
    their firearms, they also engaged in a gun battle with the pharmacist before
    fleeing the scene.
    After seeing the Raton Police Department Facebook information, the
    Medicap pharmacist alerted law enforcement, which began investigating whether
    the suspects in the New Mexico robbery had also committed the prior Wyoming
    robbery. Law enforcement would eventually directly connect Messrs. Mitchell
    and Dickens to the Wyoming robbery through DNA uncovered in the carjacking
    victim’s stolen vehicle and through that victim’s eyewitness identifications of the
    two men. Furthermore, one of the firearms that law enforcement seized from a
    vehicle involved in the New Mexico robbery was forensically shown to have fired
    shells recovered at the scene of the Wyoming robbery. Though Mr. Dominguez
    3
    was arrested with Messrs. Mitchell and Dickens after the New Mexico robbery,
    there was no evidence directly connecting him to the Wyoming robbery.
    However, law enforcement made note that the vehicle in the driveway of Mr.
    Dominguez’s girlfriend matched the description of the vehicle that the Wyoming
    robbers used during the victim’s carjacking and to flee the robbery scene.
    Federal grand juries in New Mexico and Wyoming returned multi-count
    indictments charging Mr. Dominguez and the other two men with various crimes
    related to these robberies. 1 Mr. Dominguez pleaded not guilty to all charges.
    1
    Mr. Dominguez was charged with the following crimes relating to the
    New Mexico robbery: Count 1—Hobbs Act Robbery, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 1951
    (a); Count 2—Brandishing a Firearm in Furtherance of a Crime of Violence
    and a Drug Trafficking Crime, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c); Count
    3—Robbery Involving Controlled Substances and Aiding and Abetting, in
    violation of 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 2
    , 2118(a)(1), (c)(1); Count 4—Theft of Medical
    Products and Aiding and Abetting, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 2
    , 670(a)(1),
    (b)(2)(A)–(B); Count 5—Possession with Intent to Distribute Oxycodone and
    Aiding and Abetting, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 2
     and 
    21 U.S.C. § 841
    (a)(1),
    (b)(1)(C); and Count 8—Felon in Possession of a Firearm, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 922
    (g)(1) and 924(a)(2). See R., Vol. II, at 18–23 (N.M. Indictment,
    filed Dec. 20, 2016). In relation to the Wyoming robbery, Mr. Dominguez was
    indicted on the following charges: Count 1—Conspiracy to Commit Carjacking,
    in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 371
    ; Count 2—Carjacking and Aiding and Abetting, in
    violation of 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 2
    , 2119; Counts 3 and 4—Using, Carrying, and
    Discharging a Firearm During and in Relation to a Crime of Violence and Aiding
    and Abetting, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 2
    , 924(c)(1)(A)(iii); Count
    5—Attempted Robbery Involving Controlled Substances and Aiding and Abetting,
    in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 2
    , 2118(a)(1)(3)(c)(1); Count 6—Hobbs Act Robbery,
    in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 1951
    ; and Counts 7 and 8—Using, Carrying, and
    Discharging a Firearm During and in Relation to a Crime of Violence, in violation
    of 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(1)(A)(iii). See 
    id.,
     Vol. I, at 15–23 (Wyo. Indictment, filed
    May 19, 2017). Counts 3 and 8 of the Wyoming Indictment were dismissed prior
    to Mr. Dominguez’s change of plea.
    4
    Among Mr. Dominguez’s charges were three separate violations of 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)—one in relation to the New Mexico robbery, and two in relation
    to the Wyoming robbery. Under § 924(c),
    any person who, during and in relation to any crime of violence
    or drug trafficking crime . . . uses or carries a firearm, or who, in
    furtherance of any such crime, possesses a firearm, shall, in
    addition to the punishment provided for such crime of violence
    or drug trafficking crime—(i) be sentenced to a term of
    imprisonment of not less than 5 years; (ii) if the firearm is
    brandished, be sentenced to a term of imprisonment of not less
    than 7 years; and (iii) if the firearm is discharged, be sentenced
    to a term of imprisonment of not less than 10 years.
    
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(1)(A). Notably, as to the New Mexico robbery, Mr.
    Dominguez’s only § 924(c) charge alleged that he brandished a firearm and thus
    invoked the seven-year mandatory minimum sentence; and, as to the Wyoming
    robbery, his two § 924(c) charges each averred that Mr. Dominguez discharged a
    firearm, which invoked the ten-year mandatory minimum sentence.
    Section 924(c) requires that each term of imprisonment for a violation of
    the statute run consecutively to each of a defendant’s other terms of
    imprisonment. See id. § 924(c)(1)(D)(ii) (“[N]o term of imprisonment imposed
    on a person under [§ 924(c)] shall run concurrently with any other term of
    imprisonment imposed on the person, including any term of imprisonment
    imposed for the crime of violence or drug trafficking crime during which the
    firearm was used, carried, or possessed.”). Additionally, at the time Mr.
    Dominguez was charged, § 924(c) contained a “stacking provision,” which
    5
    mandated mandatory minimum sentences of twenty-five years for second or
    subsequent § 924(c) violations. See id. § 924(c)(1)(C) (2006) (“In the case of a
    second or subsequent conviction under [§ 924(c)], the person shall . . . be
    sentenced to a term of imprisonment of not less than 25 years . . . .”), amended by
    First Step Act of 2018, Pub. L. No. 115-391, § 403(a), 
    132 Stat. 5194
     (Dec. 21,
    2018). Consequently, under the version of § 924(c) in effect when he was
    indicted, Mr. Dominguez faced a mandatory minimum sentence of sixty years if
    convicted on all three § 924(c) violations with which he was charged.
    Against this backdrop the parties began plea negotiations in November
    2018. By mid-December, the parties reached an agreement, which was reduced to
    writing and signed by Mr. Dominguez on December 20, 2018. Under the
    agreement’s terms, Mr. Dominguez would plead guilty to three counts from the
    Wyoming indictment—including one § 924(c) violation—and one count from the
    New Mexico indictment. Mr. Dominguez would also waive his right to appeal his
    convictions and sentences. 2 In exchange, the government would dismiss the
    2
    While Mr. Dominguez “knowingly and voluntarily waive[d] any right
    to appeal any matter in connection with . . . his conviction[] or the components of
    the sentence to be imposed” as a part of his plea agreement, R., Vol. III, at 20
    (Plea Agreement, filed Dec. 20, 2018), this waiver “is [itself] waived when the
    government utterly neglects to invoke [it] in this court,” United States v.
    Contreras-Ramos, 
    457 F.3d 1144
    , 1145 (10th Cir. 2006) (quoting United States v.
    Calderon, 
    428 F.3d 928
    , 930–31 (10th Cir. 2005)); see also United States v.
    Clark, 
    415 F.3d 1234
    , 1237 n.1 (10th Cir. 2005) (declining to enforce a
    defendant’s waiver of her appeal rights in her plea agreement where the
    government did not “argue[] in its brief that we should dismiss [the] appeal on the
    (continued...)
    6
    remaining charges against him, including the two additional § 924(c) violations
    with which he was charged—thereby resolving both the New Mexico and
    Wyoming cases. Further, the government agreed not to charge Mr. Dominguez
    with any conduct for which he was being investigated related to a bank robbery
    that occurred in 2015 in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
    For the four charges to which he would plead guilty, the parties agreed in
    the written plea agreement, pursuant to Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure
    11(c)(1)(C), that Mr. Dominguez would serve a total of twenty-eight years’
    imprisonment. Specifically, with respect to the Wyoming charges, Mr.
    Dominguez agreed to serve eight years for Count 2, Carjacking and Aiding and
    Abetting, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 2
    , 2119; ten years for Count 5, Attempted
    Robbery Involving Controlled Substances and Aiding and Abetting, in violation
    of 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 2
    , 2118(a)(1)(3)(c)(1); and ten years for Count 7, Using,
    Carrying, and Discharging a Firearm During and in Relation to a Crime of
    Violence, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(1)(A)(iii)—all to run consecutively.
    As well, with respect to the New Mexico case, Mr. Dominguez agreed to serve an
    eighteen-year sentence for Count 1, Hobbs Act Robbery, in violation of 18 U.S.C.
    2
    (...continued)
    basis of [the defendant’s] appellate rights waiver”). Accordingly, because the
    government neither invokes nor attempts to enforce the appellate waiver provision
    in Mr. Dominguez’s plea agreement, the government has effectively waived the
    waiver, and we therefore have no need to address that provision further and
    proceed to resolve the issues that this appeal presents.
    7
    § 1951(a), which would run concurrently with his sentences for the Wyoming
    charges.
    Notably, in the plea agreement, Mr. Dominguez averred at numerous points
    that he understood the nature of the charges against him, what his sentences
    would be, and that he entered into the agreement’s terms knowingly and
    voluntarily. See R., Vol. III, at 15–16 (Plea Agreement, filed Dec. 20, 2018)
    (stating that Mr. Dominguez “understands,” inter alia, the minimum and
    maximum sentences associated with the charges to which he was pleading guilty);
    id. at 17 (stating that he “understands that by entering this agreement and
    pleading guilty he waives certain rights”); id. (acknowledging that “he
    understands the nature and elements of the offenses he is pleading guilty to”); see
    also id. (“The Defendant acknowledges he is entering this agreement and pleading
    guilty freely and voluntarily because he is, in fact, guilty.”).
    On December 21, 2018, Mr. Dominguez appeared in district court for his
    change-of-plea hearing. 3 During a thorough Rule 11 colloquy conducted by the
    3
    Mr. Dominguez’s New Mexico case was transferred to the United
    States District Court for the District of Wyoming as part of Mr. Dominguez’s plea
    agreement, and pursuant to Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 20. See R., Vol.
    III, at 16 (“Defendant has knowingly, voluntarily, and intelligently consented to
    transfer the disposition of his New Mexico-based federal case to [the District of
    Wyoming].”); id., Vol. V, at 54 (Tr. Change of Plea Hr’g, dated Dec. 21, 2018)
    (noting that Mr. Dominguez’s New Mexico case was “transferred to the District
    of Wyoming through the consent of the United States Attorney in New Mexico
    and the United States Attorney in Wyoming”); see also F ED . R. C RIM . P. 20(a)
    (“A prosecution may be transferred from the district where the indictment . . . is
    (continued...)
    8
    court, Mr. Dominguez, under oath, represented (among other things) that he (1)
    was “fully satisfied with the advice and representation [he had] received . . . from
    [his] attorney”; (2) understood his plea agreement’s terms and discussed them
    with his counsel; (3) signed the agreement voluntarily, and suffered no threats or
    coercion; and (4) understood the myriad consequences of pleading guilty,
    including the loss of certain fundamental rights. See id., Vol. V, at 58–69 (Tr.
    Change of Plea Hr’g, dated Dec. 21, 2018). He also provided a factual basis for,
    and affirmatively pleaded guilty to, each of the four charges covered by the plea
    agreement. Following the colloquy, the district court conditionally accepted the
    plea agreement, finding that Mr. Dominguez was “fully competent and capable of
    entering an informed plea,” “aware of the nature of the charges” against him, and
    “aware of the consequences of a plea of guilty to each of those four charges,” and
    also finding “that his pleas of guilty [were] knowing and voluntary pleas,
    supported by an independent basis of fact sufficient to satisfy all the essential
    elements of the four offenses to which [he] . . . pled.” Id. at 82.
    But unbeknownst to the parties, the law changed the day of the hearing.
    Specifically, on December 21, 2018, the President signed into law the First Step
    3
    (...continued)
    pending, . . . to the district where the defendant is . . . present if: (1) the defendant
    states in writing a wish to plead guilty . . . and to waive trial in the district where
    the indictment . . . is pending, consents in writing to the court’s disposing of the
    case in the transferee district, and files the statement in the transferee district; and
    (2) the United States attorneys in both districts approve the transfer in writing.”).
    9
    Act, a wide-ranging package of criminal justice reform measures that had passed
    both houses of Congress only days prior. 4 Of note, the First Step Act altered the
    “stacking” provision of § 924(c); now, subsequent to the Act, the twenty-five-year
    mandatory minimum provision applies only to “violation[s] of [§ 924(c)] that
    occur[] after a prior [§ 924(c)] conviction . . . has become final,” 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(1)(C) (2018) (emphasis added), rather than applying to any “second or
    subsequent [§ 924(c)] conviction,” as it had previously, id. § 924(c)(1)(C) (2006).
    This statutory change had significant implications for Mr. Dominguez’s
    potential sentencing exposure: whereas before the First Step Act, he faced a
    sixty-year mandatory minimum sentence were he to be convicted on all three
    § 924(c) charges brought in the New Mexico and Wyoming indictments, after the
    First Step Act, conviction on all these charges would bring only a mandatory
    minimum sentence of twenty-seven years. See id. § 924(c)(1)(A), (D)(ii) (noting
    4
    The parties debate at what precise moment the First Step Act became
    the law—i.e., whether it was signed hours before or hours after Mr. Dominguez’s
    change-of-plea hearing on December 21, 2018—but it is undisputed that the Act
    was signed into law on the same day as the hearing. At oral argument, Mr.
    Dominguez’s counsel acknowledged that the precise timing was immaterial to Mr.
    Dominguez’s claims because the relevant law would have been changed by the
    First Step Act by the time Mr. Dominguez went to trial. See Oral Arg. at
    5:35–6:23 (The court: “Does it matter for your purposes whether in fact the First
    Step Act went into effect before pronouncement of sentence or after?”
    Appellant’s counsel: “It isn’t material to the outcome of this case [because] Mr.
    Dominguez’s trial was set for January 7, 2019, [after the First Step Act’s effective
    date].”). Ultimately, consistent with the acknowledgment of Mr. Dominguez’s
    counsel, we conclude that we need not consider this timing issue further because
    it is immaterial to our resolution of this appeal.
    10
    that a defendant shall be sentenced to a seven-year mandatory minimum if he
    “brandishe[s]” a firearm during the commission of a qualifying crime, and a
    ten-year mandatory minimum if he “discharge[s]” a firearm during such
    commission, and that such sentences shall run consecutively); see also Pub. L.
    No. 115-391, § 403(b), 132 Stat. at 5222 (noting that this amendment “shall apply
    to any offense that was committed before the date of enactment of this Act, if a
    sentence for the offense has not been imposed as of such date of enactment”). In
    Mr. Dominguez’s estimation, “the First Step Act significantly undercut the
    government’s bargaining power to convince [him] to plead guilty.” Aplt.’s
    Opening Br. at 8–9.
    In light of this purported shift in the parties’ bargaining positions, Mr.
    Dominguez moved to withdraw his guilty plea on February 4, 2019. The district
    court held a hearing on the motion a few weeks later. At that hearing, Mr.
    Dominguez’s counsel acknowledged that, at the time the parties were negotiating
    the plea agreement, and “up until the day that [Mr. Dominguez] actually pled
    guilty,” the law “was that you [c]ould stack 924(c)s.” R., Vol. V, at 92 (Tr. Hr’g
    on Def.’s Mot. to Withdraw Guilty Plea, dated Feb. 26, 2019); see id. at 95 (Mr.
    Dominguez’s counsel noting that “[t]he law at the time . . . [the parties]
    negotiated the plea agreement said [the government] c[ould] stack the 924(c)s”).
    Nonetheless, Mr. Dominguez contended that he should be permitted to
    withdraw his plea because he had not made the plea knowingly and intelligently
    11
    and because he had not received “close assistance” of counsel. As to whether his
    plea was knowing and intelligent, Mr. Dominguez’s counsel noted that the
    evidence against his client in the New Mexico case was “substantial,” and that
    “there was no doubt in [his] mind . . . that Mr. Dominguez was likely to be
    convicted” on the New Mexico charges. Id. at 92–93. Given this virtual
    certainty, Mr. Dominguez was concerned that, should he also be convicted on the
    Wyoming charges, he would face a decades-long mandatory minimum sentence,
    pursuant to the pre-First Step Act version of § 924(c)(1)(C). Yet, he reasoned
    that, once § 924(c)(1)(C)’s stacking provision was no longer in the picture—due
    to the First Step Act becoming law—the potential consequences of any New
    Mexico convictions were substantially less severe. More specifically, following
    the First Step Act, Mr. Dominguez faced only a minimum sentence roughly half
    the length of what he faced prior to the Act’s passage, even if he was convicted
    on all of the § 924(c) charges.
    Based on this material change that he was not aware of at the time of his
    guilty plea, Mr. Dominguez maintained his guilty plea was not made knowingly
    and intelligently. See id. at 107–08 (Mr. Dominguez’s counsel defining
    “knowing” as, inter alia, “understanding the entire legal structure that gives [a
    defendant] confidence that [he is] standing [before the court] making an
    intelligent decision [in pleading guilty],” and arguing that, if “knowing” is
    defined in this way, “then [Mr. Dominguez’s plea] wasn’t a knowing plea”). And,
    12
    as to whether Mr. Dominguez received the requisite “close assistance” of counsel,
    his attorney argued his failure to recognize the potential impact of the First Step
    Act on Mr. Dominguez’s sentencing exposure fell below professional standards.
    See id. at 103 (Mr. Dominguez’s counsel expressing his “belie[f] that [he] should
    have . . . recognized that there was an existing law . . . likely to be signed . . . the
    same day that Mr. Dominguez [was] changing his plea . . . and figured out
    whether or not that affected Mr. Dominguez’s substantial rights and whether it
    would have affected his ability to change his plea”); id. at 106 (“Had I [Mr.
    Dominguez’s counsel] read the First Step Act and understood what the stacking
    provisions meant, [Mr. Dominguez] wouldn’t have changed his plea.”).
    Accordingly, Mr. Dominguez argued that his motion to withdraw was justified
    and should be granted.
    However, the district court disagreed and denied the motion. As is germane
    to this appeal, the district court rejected Mr. Dominguez’s “assert[ion] that [his
    plea] was not knowing because [he] lacked the pertinent information regarding
    the stacking of the § 924(c) counts that would have altered his decision to plead
    in this case.” Id., Vol. I, at 43 (District Ct. Order Den. Def.’s Mot. to Withdraw
    Guilty Plea, filed Feb. 28, 2019). In light of the court’s Rule 11 colloquy, in
    which Mr. Dominguez stated he understood his plea agreement’s terms and
    consequences, the court reasoned that the fact Mr. Dominguez “was not aware of
    13
    potential statutory changes d[id] not provide a sufficient basis . . . to find that his
    guilty plea was not knowingly entered.” Id. at 44.
    The court also found unpersuasive Mr. Dominguez’s argument that he was
    denied “close assistance” of counsel, in no small part because Mr. Dominguez
    “continually stated [at his change of plea hearing] that he was satisfied with the
    advice of counsel he received throughout the entire process.” Id. at 43.
    Moreover, Mr. Dominguez’s attorney “provided [Mr. Dominguez] with advice
    based on the law that was in place at the time of the negotiations,” when “passage
    of the First Step Act was uncertain”; his attorney’s “[f]ailure to fully consider
    th[e] legislation” until after it was signed into law “d[id] not constitute . . . lack
    of close . . . assistance of counsel.” Id. at 42–43; see also id. at 43 (“[Mr.
    Dominguez] is entitled to close assistance of counsel, not clairvoyant nor perfect
    assistance, and certainly not assistance based on 20/20 hindsight.”). The district
    court, accordingly, denied Mr. Dominguez’s motion to withdraw his guilty plea.
    Mr. Dominguez now appeals from that denial, asserting two bases for
    reversal: (1) his plea was not knowingly and intelligently made, 5 and (2) he was
    5
    In its decision, the district court exclusively used the term “knowing”
    in addressing whether Mr. Dominguez understood the relevant consequences and
    circumstances of his guilty plea. See R., Vol. I, at 43–44 (considering whether
    Mr. Dominguez’s “guilty plea was knowing and voluntary” and concluding that
    Mr. Dominguez did “not provide a sufficient basis for the [district court] to find
    that his guilty plea was not knowingly entered” (emphases added)). In his
    appellate briefing, Mr. Dominguez, in addressing essentially the same question,
    toggles between using the term “knowing” and using the term “intelligent”—that
    (continued...)
    14
    5
    (...continued)
    is, he alternates between asserting that he did not knowingly plead guilty and
    asserting that he did not intelligently plead guilty. See Aplt.’s Opening Br. at
    13–14 (claiming his guilty plea was not an “intelligent act” and was not
    “intelligently made”); id. at 17 (contending his plea was “not knowing and
    intelligent”); Aplt.’s Reply Br. at 1 (maintaining that his plea “was not knowingly
    made”); see also Aplt.’s Reply Br. at 2 (“A guilty plea must be knowingly made.
    ‘Knowingly’ means that the plea must represent a ‘deliberate, intelligent choice
    between available alternatives.’” (emphases added) (citation omitted) (quoting
    United States v. Gigot, 
    147 F.3d 1193
    , 1199 (10th Cir. 1998))).
    Nevertheless, we understand the subject matter of the district court’s order
    and Mr. Dominguez’s arguments to be essentially the same—irrespective of
    whether only one of the two terms is used (as was the district court’s wont) or the
    two terms are used alternatively or in a “toggling” fashion (as is Mr. Dominguez’s
    frequent practice in his briefing). To this point, while it is arguable these two
    terms are conceptually distinct, even if only slightly so, see O’Neal v.
    Newton-Embry, 501 F. App’x 718, 719 n.1 (10th Cir. 2012) (unpublished) (“Pleas
    must be knowing, voluntary, and intelligent in order to be constitutionally valid.
    Those different modifiers denote unique guarantees, but courts sometimes omit
    one or more, or appear to use them somewhat interchangeably, when referring to
    the general constitutional requirement regarding pleas.” (citations omitted)),
    controlling precedent from our court and the Supreme Court, along with caselaw
    from our sister circuits, have essentially treated these two terms as synonymous
    and interchangeable in the guilty-plea context, making no meaningful effort to
    attribute discrete and disparate meanings to them. See Brady v. United States,
    
    397 U.S. 742
    , 748 (1970) (“Waivers of constitutional rights not only must be
    voluntary but must be knowing, intelligent acts done with sufficient awareness of
    the relevant circumstances and likely consequences.” (emphasis added)); United
    States v. Muhammad, 
    747 F.3d 1234
    , 1239 (10th Cir. 2014) (under the heading,
    “Whether Defendant’s Plea Was Knowing and Voluntary,” explaining that, “[t]o
    be valid, a guilty plea must represent a voluntary and intelligent choice among the
    alternative courses of action open to the defendant” (emphases added) (quoting
    United States v. Dunbar, 
    718 F.3d 1268
    , 1279 (10th Cir. 2013))); United States v.
    Vidal, 
    561 F.3d 1113
    , 1119 (10th Cir. 2009) (first noting that “[g]uilty pleas must
    be entered intelligently and voluntarily,” and then immediately defining a
    “knowing” plea as one where “the defendant has ‘a full understanding of what the
    plea connotes and of its consequence’” (emphases added) (quoting Gonzales v.
    Tafoya, 
    515 F.3d 1097
    , 1118 (10th Cir. 2008))); Cunningham v. Diesslin, 92 F.3d
    (continued...)
    15
    denied “close assistance” of counsel.
    5
    (...continued)
    1054, 1060 (10th Cir. 1996) (“In order to comport with due process guarantees, a
    defendant must have voluntarily and intelligently entered a guilty plea. The plea
    must be knowing and the product of a deliberate, intelligent choice.” (emphases
    added) (citation omitted)); cf. Jones v. Walker, 
    540 F.3d 1277
    , 1287 n.4 (11th Cir.
    2008) (noting that, in the context of a “valid waiver of a constitutional right,” the
    term “‘knowing’ is synonymous with ‘intelligent,’” while “‘voluntary’ is
    synonymous with ‘competent’ and ‘intentional’”).
    In particular, in our precedent, the two terms “knowing” and “intelligent”
    frequently have traveled together, even though we have not made a meaningful
    effort to attribute distinct meanings to them. See Gigot, 
    147 F.3d at 1199
     (“A
    plea must ‘constitute a deliberate, intelligent choice between available
    alternatives’ in order to be knowingly and intelligently made.” (quoting United
    States v. Rhodes, 
    913 F.2d 839
    , 843 (10th Cir. 1990))); United States v. Wright,
    
    43 F.3d 491
    , 495 (10th Cir. 1994) (“The Supreme Court has often reiterated that a
    defendant’s guilty plea must be knowing and intelligent to be a constitutional
    basis for conviction.”); see also United States v. Hurlich, 
    293 F.3d 1223
    , 1230
    (10th Cir. 2002) (“A defendant’s guilty plea must be knowing, voluntary, and
    intelligent.”); cf. United States v. Vargas, 
    316 F.3d 1163
    , 1166–67 (10th Cir.
    2003) (noting the “law’s concern that when a defendant surrenders important
    rights and claims, such decisions must be knowing and intelligent”—a concern
    that “is pervasive in our precedents” (collecting cases)).
    As such, in the interest of consistency and clarity, we adopt that convention
    here. That is, we most often use in this opinion (excepting language quoted from
    other sources) the two terms in tandem in the following or a like manner:
    “knowing and intelligent,” or “knowingly and intelligently.” We do so in
    addressing, in essence, the same question as the district court and the
    parties—that is, whether Mr. Dominguez properly understood the relevant
    circumstances and consequences associated with his guilty plea. See Gonzales,
    
    515 F.3d at 1118
     (“A plea is ‘knowing’ if the defendant has ‘a full understanding
    of what the plea connotes and of its consequence.’” (quoting Boykin v. Alabama,
    
    395 U.S. 238
    , 244 (1969))). To be clear, however, in light of the foregoing
    discussion—noting that the two terms have been used interchangeably in
    controlling precedent—we do not intend to opine on whether the convention of
    using “knowing and intelligent” together—rather than using one or the other term
    in isolation—is the most appropriate statement of the relevant standard.
    16
    II
    We review the district court’s denial of Mr. Dominguez’s motion to
    withdraw his guilty plea under our “deferential” abuse-of-discretion standard.
    United States v. Byrum, 
    567 F.3d 1255
    , 1259 (10th Cir. 2009); accord United
    States v. Yazzie, 
    407 F.3d 1139
    , 1142 (10th Cir. 2005) (en banc); cf. United States
    v. Siedlik, 
    231 F.3d 744
    , 748 (10th Cir. 2000) (“Defendants do not have an
    absolute right to withdraw a guilty plea.”). To withdraw his guilty plea, Mr.
    Dominguez “bears the burden of establishing a fair and just reason” for his
    request. United States v. Marceleno, 
    819 F.3d 1267
    , 1272 (10th Cir. 2016)
    (quoting United States v. Hamilton, 
    510 F.3d 1209
    , 1214 (10th Cir. 2007)); see
    F ED . R. C RIM . P. 11(d)(2)(B) (“A defendant may withdraw a plea of guilty . . .
    after the court accepts the plea, but before it imposes sentence if: . . . the
    defendant can show a fair and just reason for requesting the withdrawal.”).
    In determining whether Mr. Dominguez has presented a “fair and just
    reason” for his withdrawal request, we have typically considered the following
    factors:
    (1) whether the defendant has asserted his innocence; (2) whether
    withdrawal would prejudice the government; (3) whether [he]
    delayed in filing his motion, and if so, the reason for the delay;
    (4) whether withdrawal would substantially inconvenience the
    court; (5) whether close assistance of counsel was available to
    [him]; (6) whether [his] plea was knowing and voluntary; and
    (7) whether the withdrawal would waste judicial resources.
    17
    Yazzie, 
    407 F.3d at 1142
     (quoting United States v. Sandoval, 
    390 F.3d 1294
    , 1298
    (10th Cir. 2004)); see also United States v. Sanchez-Leon, 
    764 F.3d 1248
    , 1258
    (10th Cir. 2014) (framing these “seven factors” as follows: “(1) whether the
    defendant has asserted his innocence, (2) prejudice to the government, (3) delay
    in filing defendant’s motion, (4) inconvenience to the court, (5) defendant’s
    assistance of counsel, (6) whether the plea is knowing and voluntary, and (7)
    waste of judicial resources.” (quoting Hamilton, 
    510 F.3d at 1214
    )). Here, Mr.
    Dominguez challenges the district court’s denial of his motion to withdraw his
    guilty plea based on two of these factors: (1) whether his plea was knowingly and
    intelligently made and (2) whether he received “close assistance” of counsel.
    Notably, Mr. Dominguez does not assert that he is innocent of the charged crimes
    (i.e., the first Yazzie factor), nor does he allege that his plea was involuntary (i.e.,
    part of the sixth Yazzie factor).
    Beyond these specific factors, we have acknowledged that, though
    “motion[s] to withdraw a plea prior to sentencing should be freely allowed,”
    United States v. Garcia, 
    577 F.3d 1271
    , 1274 (10th Cir. 2009) (quoting Hamilton,
    
    510 F.3d at
    1213–14), “[w]hether to permit withdrawal ‘always and ultimately
    lies within the sound discretion of the district court,’” Sanchez-Leon, 764 F.3d at
    1259 (quoting United States v. Soto, 
    660 F.3d 1264
    , 1267 (10th Cir. 2011)).
    Within our overarching abuse-of-discretion analysis, “[w]e review legal
    conclusions de novo, such as whether the plea was made knowingly and
    18
    voluntarily or whether counsel was ineffective.” Sanchez-Leon, 764 F.3d at 1259;
    see also Hamilton, 
    510 F.3d at
    1215–16. “An error of law is per se an abuse of
    discretion.” United States v. Lopez-Avila, 
    665 F.3d 1216
    , 1219 (10th Cir. 2011);
    accord Sanchez-Leon, 764 F.3d at 1262.
    Recall that Mr. Dominguez does not assert his innocence as a “fair and just
    reason” for withdrawing his guilty plea. In the context of the two objections that
    he does raise, this is consequential because we have held that, “[i]f the defendant
    fails to carry his . . . burden on asserted innocence, validity of the plea (whether it
    was given knowingly and voluntarily), and [also] ineffective assistance of
    counsel, [we] need not address ‘the remaining factors . . . because the[y] . . .
    speak to the potential burden on the government and the court, rather than the
    defendant’s reason for withdrawal.’” Sanchez-Leon, 764 F.3d at 1258 (second
    ellipsis in original) (citation and emphasis omitted) (quoting Hamilton, 
    510 F.3d at 1217
    ); see Marceleno, 819 F.3d at 1272 (“If the assertion-of-innocence,
    knowing-and-voluntary, and ineffective-assistance-of-counsel factors all weigh
    against the defendant, a district court need not consider the remaining four
    factors.”). Accordingly, if Mr. Dominguez has failed to carry his burden of proof
    regarding his knowing-and-intelligent and “close assistance” challenges, then we
    may conclude that Mr. Dominguez has not shown a “fair and just reason” to
    withdraw his plea because he has made no assertion of his innocence of the
    charged offenses.
    19
    III
    Mr. Dominguez claims that the district court erred in denying his motion to
    withdraw his guilty plea for two reasons: (1) his plea was not knowingly and
    intelligently made, and (2) his lawyer did not provide “close assistance.”
    However, for the reasons discussed below, we conclude that Mr. Dominguez has
    failed to demonstrate that his guilty plea was unknowing and unintelligent and
    that he lacked “close assistance” of counsel. More specifically, as to the latter,
    we hold that Mr. Dominguez has not demonstrated that he was prejudiced by any
    deficient performance of his counsel. Consequently, we determine that the
    district court did not abuse its discretion in denying Mr. Dominguez’s motion to
    withdraw his guilty plea.
    We turn now to address Mr. Dominguez’s arguments for reversal.
    A
    Mr. Dominguez first argues that his guilty plea is invalid because it was not
    knowingly and intelligently made. We first outline the governing law and then
    address the merits of this claim.
    1
    “A plea of guilty is constitutionally valid only to the extent it is . . .
    ‘intelligent.’” Bousley v. United States, 
    523 U.S. 614
    , 618 (1998) (quoting Brady
    v. United States, 
    397 U.S. 742
    , 748 (1970)). This constitutional protection stems
    from the Due Process Clause. See, e.g., United States v. Avila, 
    733 F.3d 1258
    ,
    20
    1261 (10th Cir. 2013) (noting that a defendant may challenge the knowing and
    intelligent nature of his guilty plea under the Due Process Clause); see also Fields
    v. Gibson, 
    277 F.3d 1203
    , 1212–13 (10th Cir. 2002) (“The Due Process Clause of
    the Fourteenth Amendment requires that a defendant knowingly . . . enter a plea
    of guilty.”).
    “The longstanding test for determining the validity of a guilty plea is
    ‘whether the plea represents [inter alia] a[n] . . . intelligent choice among the
    alternative courses of action open to the defendant.’” United States v. Carr, 
    80 F.3d 413
    , 416 (10th Cir. 1996) (quoting Hill v. Lockhart, 
    474 U.S. 52
    , 56 (1985));
    accord Sanchez-Leon, 764 F.3d at 1259. That is, for a plea to be knowing and
    intelligent, the defendant “must have ‘a full understanding of what the plea
    connotes and of its consequence.’” Marceleno, 819 F.3d at 1276 (quoting United
    States v. Hurlich, 
    293 F.3d 1223
    , 1230 (10th Cir. 2002)); see also United States v.
    Gigot, 
    147 F.3d 1193
    , 1199 (10th Cir. 1998) (“A plea must ‘constitute a
    deliberate, intelligent choice between available alternatives’ in order to be
    knowingly and intelligently made.” (quoting United States v. Rhodes, 
    913 F.2d 839
    , 843 (10th Cir. 1990))).
    More particularly, a defendant knowingly and intelligently pleads guilty if
    he understands his plea’s “direct consequences,” even if he does not also
    “understand every collateral consequence of the plea.” Hurlich, 
    293 F.3d at
    1230–31 (emphases added); see United States v. Muhammad, 
    747 F.3d 1234
    ,
    21
    1239–40 (10th Cir. 2014) (“[T]here is no requirement that a defendant be advised
    of all potential collateral consequences of a guilty plea in order for that plea to be
    . . . knowing[] and intelligent.” (alteration in original) (quoting United States v.
    Krejcarek, 
    453 F.3d 1290
    , 1296 (10th Cir. 2006))).
    Rule 11 of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure “prescribes procedures
    designed to ensure that pleas are entered knowingly and voluntarily.” United
    States v. Gomez-Cuevas, 
    917 F.2d 1521
    , 1525 (10th Cir. 1990); see United States
    v. Gordon, 
    4 F.3d 1567
    , 1573 (10th Cir. 1993) (noting that district courts
    “ensure[] that . . . plea[s] [are] voluntary and knowing by meticulously complying
    with the requirements of Fed. R. Crim. P. 11”); see also Padilla v. Kentucky, 
    559 U.S. 356
    , 391 n.1 (2010) (Scalia, J., dissenting) (noting that the “required
    colloquy between a federal district court and a defendant required by Federal Rule
    of Criminal Procedure 11(b) . . . approximates the due process requirements for a
    valid plea” (citing Libretti v. United States, 
    516 U.S. 29
    , 49–50 (1995))); Gigot,
    
    147 F.3d at 1197
     (reviewing de novo “[w]hether a district court has complied
    with Rule 11 in accepting a defendant’s plea and, accordingly, whether the
    defendant’s plea was knowing, intelligent, and voluntary”).
    Pursuant to Rule 11(b), the district court, “[b]efore . . . accept[ing] a plea
    of guilty,” “must address the defendant personally in open court” and ensure that
    he is aware of and understands, inter alia, his rights to plead not guilty, to a jury
    trial, and to counsel—and his waiver of such rights in the event of a guilty plea;
    22
    “the nature of each charge to which [he] is pleading”; all mandatory maximum
    and minimum penalties related to the charges to which he is pleading; and “the
    court’s obligation to calculate the applicable sentencing-guideline range and to
    consider . . . other sentencing factors under 
    18 U.S.C. § 3553
    (a).” F ED . R. C RIM .
    P. 11(b)(1); see also United States v. Rollings, 
    751 F.3d 1183
    , 1188 n.2 (10th Cir.
    2014) (discussing the requirements of Rule 11).
    Where the district court complies with Rule 11 and conducts a thorough
    plea colloquy, in which the defendant affirmatively indicates he understands his
    plea and its direct consequences—as occurred in Mr. Dominguez’s case—we have
    recognized that such “solemn declarations made in open court carry a strong
    presumption of verity.” See Sanchez-Leon, 764 F.3d at 1259 (quoting Tovar
    Mendoza v. Hatch, 
    620 F.3d 1261
    , 1269 (10th Cir. 2010)); see also Blackledge v.
    Allison, 
    431 U.S. 63
    , 74 (1977). Indeed, we have concluded that “the truth and
    accuracy of [a defendant’s] statements made at the Rule 11 proceedings should be
    regarded as conclusive in the absence of a believable, valid reason justifying a
    departure from the apparent truth of his Rule 11 statements.” Hedman v. United
    States, 
    527 F.2d 20
    , 22 (10th Cir. 1975) (per curiam); accord United States v.
    Weeks, 
    653 F.3d 1188
    , 1205 (10th Cir. 2011).
    2
    Mr. Dominguez argues that his plea was not knowingly and intelligently
    made and is, therefore, invalid because “he was not aware of his available
    23
    alternatives.” Aplt.’s Opening Br. at ii. Notably, he does not contest the
    sufficiency of the court’s Rule 11 colloquy. 6 However, Mr. Dominguez asserts
    that he pleaded guilty because he “believed the bargained-for benefit to him was
    that a 50-year mandatory minimum sentence was taken off the table,” when
    “unbeknownst to [him], the law had changed”—through the passage of the First
    Step Act—“and at the time he ple[aded] guilty, he was no longer subject to what
    he believed was the applicable mandatory minimum sentence.” Id. at 12.
    Accordingly, “it was impossible for Mr. Dominguez to make ‘a deliberate,
    intelligent choice between available alternatives,’ as he was operating under a
    misunderstanding as to what the available alternatives actually were”—i.e., what
    the potential sentencing exposure was, if he elected to go to trial rather than plead
    guilty. Id. at 15 (quoting Gigot, 
    147 F.3d at 1199
    ); see also id. at 12 (arguing
    that “it was impossible for Mr. Dominguez to make a deliberate choice between
    alternatives as he was wrongly informed what the alternatives were”).
    6
    Though not challenging the adequacy of the district court’s Rule 11
    colloquy, in his reply brief (as well as during oral argument), Mr. Dominguez
    makes a point of drawing our attention to the Eighth Circuit’s decision in United
    States v. Goodman, 
    590 F.2d 705
     (8th Cir. 1979). See Aplt.’s Reply Br. at 6. He
    quotes the following language from Goodman: “it is well established that
    compliance with Rule 11 does not act as an absolute bar to subsequent collateral
    attack upon the voluntariness of a guilty plea.” Goodman, 
    590 F.2d at 710
    .
    Unlike in Goodman, however, the voluntariness of the plea is not challenged here
    on appeal. Therefore, by its plain terms, Goodman’s observation would appear to
    be inapposite, and Mr. Dominguez does not elaborate on the case’s relevance to
    these circumstances. Consequently, we do not address Goodman further.
    24
    We are not persuaded by Mr. Dominguez’s argument. In effect, Mr.
    Dominguez contends that, in order to have knowingly and intelligently entered a
    plea agreement, he needed to understand not just the penalties and direct
    consequences associated with the charges to which he pleaded guilty, but also any
    penalties or potential consequences associated with charges to which he did not
    plead guilty—charges that the government actually dismissed here as part of the
    plea agreement. In this regard, recall that the First Step Act’s amendment of the
    stacking rules only impacted the penalties and consequences of charges to which
    Mr. Dominguez did not plead guilty. It was those charges that created the specter
    of the additional fifty-year mandatory minimum sentence that allegedly troubled
    Mr. Dominguez. The First Step Act’s stacking amendment did not impact the
    charges to which Mr. Dominguez pleaded guilty and as to which the district court
    undisputedly conducted a thorough Rule 11 colloquy. In light of these
    circumstances, we are hard pressed to conclude other than that Mr. Dominguez
    was fully apprised of the direct consequences of his proposed guilty plea and thus
    knowingly and intelligently made it. See, e.g., Hurlich, 
    293 F.3d at
    1230–31;
    Muhammad, 747 F.3d at 1239–40.
    Not surprisingly, Mr. Dominguez struggles to find authority supportive of
    his novel position. He offers none that is controlling. And the authority that he
    does identify is not persuasive. Mr. Dominguez relies heavily on the Fifth
    Circuit’s decision in United States v. Guerra, 
    94 F.3d 989
     (5th Cir. 1996), to
    25
    argue that his plea was not knowingly and intelligently made. See Aplt.’s
    Opening Br. at 15–16; Oral Arg. at 9:28–9:39 (Mr. Dominguez’s counsel citing
    Guerra when asked what was his “best case close to these facts”). He claims that,
    “[j]ust like . . . in Guerra, [he] entered into a guilty plea erroneously believing
    that his sentencing exposure if he went to trial was far greater than it actually
    was,” and so, “like Guerra, [his] conviction is ‘invalid and must be set aside.’”
    Aplt.’s Opening Br. at 15–16 (quoting Guerra, 
    94 F.3d at 995
    ). But, as we shall
    detail, Guerra is patently distinguishable. Stated briefly, in Guerra “the district
    court did not properly inform the defendant of the maximum penalty he faced and
    thus did not comply with the mandate of Rule 11,” 
    94 F.3d at 995
    ; these
    important circumstances are not present here, and thus Guerra is patently
    distinguishable.
    A further examination of salient details of the case reinforce the point.
    There, the district court informed a defendant “that, because of his prior drug
    convictions, he was subject to enhanced criminal penalties under the federal
    statutes as a repeat offender . . . . [and] [t]hus instead of facing a possible 30-year
    term for both [of his drug-trafficking] counts, the court was of the view that a
    60-year term was possible.” Guerra, 
    94 F.3d at 991
    . However, “the district court
    was mistaken. The enhanced sentences for repeat offenders were applicable only
    where a defendant had previously been convicted of federal drug offenses. [The
    defendant] had been convicted of drug offenses in the courts of Illinois and
    26
    Texas, but not of the United States.” 
    Id.
     “Unaware of the district court’s error,”
    the defendant pleaded guilty to one of the charged drug-trafficking offenses, in
    exchange for the government’s agreement to dismiss the other. 
    Id.
    The defendant thereafter sought to challenge the validity of his plea in post-
    conviction proceedings under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    . Notably, in making the threshold
    determination that the defendant had established prejudice to overcome an alleged
    procedural bar, the court made the following observation:
    We do not find it difficult to imagine that the district court’s
    erroneous statement to [the defendant] that he faced a possible
    sentence of 60 years in prison upon conviction on both counts
    might have led him to enter into plea negotiations for a reduced
    sentence on a single count, rather than go to trial and face
    maximum exposure on both counts.
    
    Id. at 994
    . Having found prejudice to overcome the bar, the Fifth Circuit with
    little difficulty determined that the record showed that the district court’s
    misstatements concerning “the maximum penalty he faced,” were he to be found
    guilty of the charged offenses, effected a Rule 11 violation. 
    Id. at 995
    . And,
    though the court noted that this did not necessarily mean that the defendant “will
    receive the relief for which he asks” because he still was obliged to show that the
    Rule 11 violation “constitute[d] a constitutional violation,” the court concluded
    that the defendant made this constitutional showing. 
    Id.
     In short, it reasoned that
    because of the “erroneous information” that he possessed “as to the possible
    penalty he faced,” the defendant was “unaware of the true nature of the
    options”—that is, “[h]e did not know that going to trial would only put him at risk
    27
    of half the possible sentence he was informed he would face.” 
    Id.
     Consequently,
    the Fifth Circuit determined that the defendant’s plea “was made unintelligently
    and is therefore invalid.” 
    Id.
    As these details should underscore, Guerra is patently distinguishable and
    does not even marginally advance Mr. Dominguez’s cause. The Fifth Circuit’s
    decision there turned on the fact that the district court expressly made inaccurate
    statements to the defendant regarding the penalties that he faced, which effected a
    Rule 11 violation and dramatically distorted the penalty picture the defendant
    considered in entering into plea negotiations. But the district court here made no
    such misstatements.
    The district court undisputedly conducted a thorough Rule 11 colloquy that
    accurately informed Mr. Dominguez of the potential penalties and direct
    consequences that he faced with respect to the charges to which he pleaded guilty.
    And, importantly, though the First Step Act’s stacking amendment did affect the
    dismissed charges to which Mr. Dominguez did not plead guilty, there is nothing
    in the record to indicate that, in the colloquy, the district court said even a word
    about the penalties associated with those charges or about the potential interplay
    between those dismissed charges and the ones to which Mr. Dominguez pleaded
    guilty. And Mr. Dominguez does not argue to the contrary. See Oral Arg. at
    13:05–13:18 (The court: “Let me be clear, do I understand correctly, at the time
    that [Mr. Dominguez] had his Rule 11 colloquy, was there any discussion in
    28
    the . . . colloquy about the 60-year mandatory minimum that he was facing?”
    Appellant’s counsel: “No.”). Therefore, unlike in Guerra, it is “difficult to
    imagine” how the district court’s actions could have pressured Mr. Dominguez
    “to enter into plea negotiations” to avoid the penalties associated with those
    charges that were ultimately dismissed. See Guerra, 
    94 F.3d at 994
    . Therefore,
    Mr. Dominguez’s reliance on Guerra is unavailing.
    After oral argument, pursuant to Federal Rule of Appellate Procedure 28(j),
    Mr. Dominguez also identified the Seventh Circuit’s decision in United States v.
    De La Torre, 
    940 F.3d 938
     (7th Cir. 2019), contending that it supports his
    “position that his plea was not intelligently made because he was misinformed
    about the mandatory minimum sentence he would receive if he went to trial and
    was found guilty.” Aplt.’s 28(j) Letter at 1 (filed Mar. 18, 2020). However, even
    if we put aside the fact that De La Torre is out-of-circuit authority that is not
    binding on us, it cannot offer Mr. Dominguez succor. Most fundamentally, this is
    so because the relevant question in this case is not whether a defendant must be
    aware of any mandatory minimum penalties he might face in order to knowingly
    and intelligently enter a guilty plea—or, more precisely, whether mandatory
    minimum penalties always constitute direct consequences of a defendant’s plea.
    Rather, the relevant question in this case is whether mandatory minimum
    penalties that relate to charges for which the defendant does not plead guilty can
    be deemed direct consequences of the defendant’s plea, especially when the
    29
    district court does not comment on—let alone misrepresent—the nature of those
    non-plea mandatory minimums. And De La Torre utters nary a word regarding
    these circumstances. Accordingly, Mr. Dominguez fares no better with De La
    Torre than he does with Guerra. 7
    In sum, Mr. Dominguez does not demonstrate how any misunderstanding he
    may have had about the First Step Act’s potential effects on mandatory minimum
    penalties for charges to which he did not plead guilty are of direct consequence
    with respect to the charges to which he did plead guilty, such that his purported
    misunderstanding regarding these effects would render his plea unknowing and
    unintelligent. Accordingly, we conclude that the district court did not err in
    rejecting Mr. Dominguez’s contention that his plea was not knowing and
    intelligent. 8
    7
    While Mr. Dominguez fails to cite apposite caselaw, our independent
    research has unearthed two recent, unpublished decisions in which panels of two
    of our sister circuits—under similar circumstances—rejected defendants’ efforts
    to vacate their guilty pleas based on the First Step Act’s alteration of the
    mandatory minimum landscape. See United States v. Hardy, 838 F. App’x 68, 72,
    74–77 (5th Cir. 2020) (per curiam) (unpublished); United States v. Marc, 806 F.
    App’x 820, 822–23 (11th Cir. 2020) (per curiam) (unpublished). Though non-
    precedential and out-of-circuit, the panels’ reasoning in these two decisions is
    consistent with our independent conclusion that Mr. Dominguez’s knowing-and-
    intelligent challenge is without merit.
    8
    In his opening brief, Mr. Dominguez also argues that his plea
    agreement is voidable under the contract-law doctrine of mutual mistake. See
    Aplt.’s Opening Br. at 17–19; see also United States v. Frownfelter, 
    626 F.3d 549
    , 554–57 (10th Cir. 2010) (recognizing that “[p]lea agreements are interpreted
    according to general principles of contract law” and considering arguments for the
    (continued...)
    30
    B
    Mr. Dominguez also argues that his plea is invalid because he did not
    receive “close assistance” of counsel during the plea bargaining process. More
    specifically, Mr. Dominguez contends that his plea is invalid because his counsel
    rendered constitutionally deficient assistance of counsel by failing to account for
    the impending passage of the First Step Act during plea negotiations. He is quick
    to point out that his trial counsel “admitted complete ignorance of the First Step
    Act’s impact on [his potential sentence] and conceded that he failed to perform
    any research on the point until after Mr. Dominguez had changed his plea,”
    thereby “candidly conced[ing] that he did not provide . . . ‘close assistance of
    counsel.’” Aplt.’s Opening Br. at 21. Mr. Dominguez further claims that, had his
    counsel informed him of the First Step Act’s potential impact on his sentence—in
    particular, the Act’s amendment to § 924(c)’s stacking provision—there is a
    reasonable probability that the outcome of the plea proceeding would have been
    different because he either would have declined to plead guilty and gone to trial
    or at least negotiated a better plea agreement. And, as evidence of his claim that
    8
    (...continued)
    rescission of a plea agreement based on frustration of purpose and mutual
    mistake). But as Mr. Dominguez’s counsel conceded at oral argument, he never
    raised a mutual-mistake argument—or any other contract-law argument, for that
    matter—in the district court. See Oral Arg. at 7:25–7:30. Nor does Mr.
    Dominguez argue for plain error review on appeal. Thus, he has effectively
    waived this otherwise forfeited theory, and we will not consider it. See, e.g.,
    Richison v. Ernest Grp., Inc., 
    634 F.3d 1123
    , 1130–31 (10th Cir. 2011).
    31
    he would have rejected the plea agreement, Mr. Dominguez cites the very fact
    that he filed a motion to withdraw his guilty plea.
    The parties frame this “close assistance” of counsel issue as one raising an
    ineffective-assistance-of-counsel question under the familiar, two-pronged test of
    Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984). 9 We have previously applied
    Strickland’s ineffective-assistance standard to the “close assistance” issue when
    considering a motion to withdraw a guilty plea. See Marceleno, 819 F.3d at 1272
    (discussing the “ineffective-assistance-of-counsel factor[]” and asking “whether
    counsel provided effective assistance”); Hamilton, 
    510 F.3d at 1216
     (“When a
    defendant’s challenge to a guilty plea is based on ineffective assistance of
    counsel, we apply the two-part [Strickland] test . . . .”); Gordon, 
    4 F.3d at
    1570–73 (reviewing a defendant’s “challenge to a guilty plea based on a claim of
    ineffective assistance of counsel” under Strickland and holding that the
    9
    “Ineffective-assistance claims should generally be brought in
    collateral proceedings, rather than on direct appeal, so that a factual record
    enabling effective appellate review may be developed in the district court.”
    Hamilton, 
    510 F.3d at
    1213 (citing United States v. Galloway, 
    56 F.3d 1239
    , 1242
    (10th Cir. 1995) (en banc)). Our “general rule,” then, is to “dismiss[]” such
    claims “when brought on direct appeal.” 
    Id.
     “Here, however, a factual record
    enabling appellate review already exists,” 
    id.,
     as the district court held a hearing
    and issued an order on Mr. Dominguez’s motion to withdraw, in which the
    question of ineffective assistance was discussed and considered. Notably, the
    parties agree that the record is sufficient to consider Mr. Dominguez’s
    ineffective-assistance claim. Accordingly, because Mr. Dominguez’s
    ineffective-assistance claim is “fully developed in the record,” it “falls within the
    narrow exception to our general rule” and, therefore, we will consider it. 
    Id.
    (quoting Galloway, 
    56 F.3d at 1242
    ).
    32
    defendant’s “contention . . . that original counsel’s ineffective assistance is a fair
    and just reason for withdrawal of his guilty plea . . . fail[ed] in light of our
    conclusion . . . that [he] did not receive ineffective assistance of counsel”).
    Accordingly, for purposes of this appeal, we will view Mr. Dominguez’s claim
    that he did not receive “close assistance” of counsel through the prism of
    Strickland and its progeny. 10
    1
    Under Strickland, Mr. Dominguez must demonstrate both that (1) “his
    counsel’s performance ‘fell below an objective standard of reasonableness’” and
    (2) “the deficient performance prejudiced [his] defense.” Byrd v. Workman, 
    645 F.3d 1159
    , 1167 (10th Cir. 2011) (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    687–88). We
    “may address the performance and prejudice components [of the Strickland test]
    in any order, but need not address both if [Mr. Dominguez] fails to make a
    sufficient showing of one.” Cooks v. Ward, 
    165 F.3d 1283
    , 1292–93 (10th Cir.
    1998); see Byrd, 
    645 F.3d at 1168
     (“Courts are free to address these two prongs in
    any order, and failure under either is dispositive.”). Indeed, “in Strickland, the
    Supreme Court emphasized that ‘if it is easier to dispose of an ineffectiveness
    10
    Though we apply Strickland’s test in this case, we do not decide as a
    matter of law that the “close assistance” of counsel issue is invariably governed
    by that test. Rather, our decision here is influenced by the parties’ agreement on
    this issue and the fully-developed record allowing for a meaningful inquiry into
    the effectiveness of Mr. Dominguez’s trial counsel—that is to say, our decision is
    influenced in significant part by case-specific factors.
    33
    claim on the ground of lack of sufficient prejudice, . . . that course should be
    followed.’” Littlejohn v. Royal, 
    875 F.3d 548
    , 552 (10th Cir. 2017) (omission in
    original) (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 697
    ). And we elect to do so here: that
    is, because we may readily dispose of Mr. Dominguez’s contention of ineffective
    assistance of counsel on the basis of insufficient prejudice, we do so here.
    2
    To satisfy Strickland’s prejudice prong, a defendant “must show that there
    is a reasonable probability that, but for [his] counsel’s unprofessional errors, the
    result of the proceeding would have been different.” Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. 170
    , 189 (2011) (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    ). In the guilty-plea
    context, Strickland’s prejudice prong ordinarily requires a defendant to
    demonstrate “there is a reasonable probability that, but for [his] counsel’s errors,
    he would not have pleaded guilty and would have insisted on going to trial.” Hill,
    
    474 U.S. at 59
     (emphases added); accord United States v. Kramer, 
    168 F.3d 1196
    ,
    1201 (10th Cir. 1999) (“To show prejudice in the guilty plea context, the
    defendant must establish that there is a reasonable probability that, but for
    counsel’s errors, the defendant would not have pleaded guilty and would have
    insisted on going to trial.”).
    “A reasonable probability is a probability sufficient to undermine
    confidence in the outcome,” which necessitates a “‘substantial,’ not just
    ‘conceivable,’ likelihood of a different result.” Cullen, 
    563 U.S. at 189
     (first
    34
    quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    , then quoting Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 112 (2011)). “This does not require a showing that counsel’s actions ‘more
    likely than not altered the outcome,’ but the difference between Strickland’s
    prejudice standard and a more-probable-than-not standard is slight and matters
    ‘only in the rarest case.’” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at
    111–12 (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 693, 697
    ); accord Frost v. Pryor, 
    749 F.3d 1212
    , 1225 (10th Cir. 2014).
    Though “[u]ltimately . . . our task is to make a holistic inquiry into all of
    the” facts bearing on whether a particular defendant suffered prejudice, Heard v.
    Addison, 
    728 F.3d 1170
    , 1183 (10th Cir. 2013), we have stressed that the
    defendant’s “‘mere allegation’ that he would have insisted on trial but for his
    counsel’s errors, although necessary, is ultimately insufficient to entitle him to
    relief,” Miller v. Champion, 
    262 F.3d 1066
    , 1072 (10th Cir. 2001); see Heard,
    728 F.3d at 1184 (“[W]e remain suspicious of bald, post hoc and unsupported
    statements that a defendant would have changed his plea absent counsel’s
    errors . . . .”).
    Consistent with the proposition that a defendant’s say-so is not enough, we
    have indicated that this prejudice inquiry is largely an objective one. See Heard,
    728 F.3d at 1183 (noting that “[o]ur assessment of this [prejudice] prong will of
    necessity ‘depend in large part’ on objective factors such as whether an unmade
    evidentiary or legal discovery ‘likely would have changed the outcome of a trial,’
    or whether a defense about which the defendant was not advised ‘likely would
    35
    have succeeded at trial,’” but “[i]t is uncontroversial to say that this assessment
    can include ‘objective’ facts specific to a petitioner such as his age, the length of
    the sentence he faced under the terms of the plea deal, the prospect of minimizing
    exposure to other charged counts, and so on” (emphases added) (quoting Hill,
    
    474 U.S. at 59
    )); cf. Bonney v. Wilson (“Bonney I”), 
    754 F.3d 872
    , 884 (10th Cir.
    2014) (stating that “we have been unable to locate any Supreme Court precedent,
    regardless of factual context, that clearly holds the Strickland [prejudice]
    standard—in whole or in part—is subjective”; opining that “one may reasonably
    read Hill as endorsing an objective prejudice standard”; and noting that the Court
    has cited Strickland “in support of an objective prejudice standard”).
    In this vein, the Supreme Court in Padilla v. Kentucky advised that, to
    obtain relief on an ineffective-assistance-of-counsel claim under Strickland, a
    defendant challenging his guilty plea “must convince the court that [his] decision
    to reject the plea . . . would have been rational under the circumstances.” 
    559 U.S. at 372
     (emphasis added). We have subsequently incorporated and subsumed
    this “rationality” factor into Strickland’s reasonable-probability prejudice inquiry.
    See Heard, 728 F.3d at 1184 (reading Padilla’s “state[ment] that proof of
    prejudice requires a [defendant] to show that ‘a decision to reject the plea bargain
    would have been rational under the circumstances’” as “suggest[ing] an objective
    floor” or “threshold” on the prejudice inquiry—“somewhere below Hill’s more
    demanding requirement that the defendant show ‘a reasonable probability that’ he
    36
    would have gone to trial absent counsel’s errors”—and further opining that, if the
    defendant satisfies this threshold, “we see no reason to blind ourselves to the
    individual defendant’s statements and conduct” in determining whether the
    reasonable-probability standard is met (first quoting Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at 372
    ,
    then quoting Hill, 
    474 U.S. at 59
    )); see also Bonney v. Wilson (“Bonney II”), 
    817 F.3d 703
    , 712 (10th Cir. 2016) (“To show prejudice (the second prong) in the
    context of a plea agreement, [a defendant] ha[s] to ‘convince the court that a
    decision to reject the plea bargain would have been rational under the
    circumstances.’” (quoting Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at 372
    )); Bonney I, 754 F.3d at 884
    (“[T]he [Padilla] Court explained that to establish prejudice based on counsel’s
    failure to advise his client of certain consequences of a guilty plea, a defendant
    ‘must convince the court that a decision to reject the plea bargain would have
    been rational under the circumstances.’” (quoting Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at 372
    )). 11
    Consonant with Supreme Court precedent, our cases make clear that “it is
    often quite difficult for [defendants] who have acknowledged their guilt,” like Mr.
    Dominguez, “to satisfy Strickland’s prejudice prong.” Bonney I, 754 F.3d at 886
    (quoting Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at
    371 n.12); see Lee v. United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 1958
    ,
    11
    Several of our sister circuits also have incorporated this “rationality”
    factor into the well-settled Strickland reasonable-probability prejudice standard.
    See, e.g., Shimel v. Warren, 
    838 F.3d 685
    , 698 (6th Cir. 2016); Diveroli v. United
    States, 
    803 F.3d 1258
    , 1263 (11th Cir. 2015); Christian v. Ballard, 
    792 F.3d 427
    ,
    452–53 (4th Cir. 2015); DeBartolo v. United States, 
    790 F.3d 775
    , 778–79 (7th
    Cir. 2015); United States v. Kimber, 
    777 F.3d 553
    , 563 n.1 (2d Cir. 2015); United
    States v. Urias-Marrufo, 
    744 F.3d 361
    , 366–67 (5th Cir. 2014).
    37
    1967 (2017) (“‘Surmounting Strickland’s high bar is never an easy task,’ and the
    strong societal interest in finality has ‘special force with respect to convictions
    based on guilty pleas.’ Courts should not upset a plea solely because of post hoc
    assertions from a defendant about how he would have pleaded but for his
    attorney’s deficiencies. Judges should instead look to contemporaneous evidence
    to substantiate a defendant’s expressed preferences.” (citations omitted) (first
    quoting Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at 371
    , then quoting United States v. Timmreck, 
    441 U.S. 780
    , 784 (1979))).
    3
    Mr. Dominguez’s prejudice theory is somewhat elusive. That is, Mr.
    Dominguez measures prejudice in his opening brief in terms of the denial of his
    right to a trial, see Aplt.’s Opening Br. at 23 (arguing that it is “more than
    reasonably probable” that “Mr. Dominguez would not have changed his plea,”
    and, therefore, would have gone to trial, “if not for the erroneous advice that he
    would receive a 60-year mandatory minimum sentence if he was convicted of the
    three § 924(c) offenses”); however, in his reply brief, he modifies his measure of
    prejudice to focus on the purported denial of a potentially better (i.e., more
    favorable) plea agreement, see Aplt.’s Reply Br. at 13, 15 (questioning “whether
    Mr. Dominguez would have entered into the same plea agreement with the
    government had he been properly informed of the available alternatives” and
    arguing that, but for his counsel’s errors, he “might still have pleaded guilty, but
    38
    under a more beneficial plea agreement” (emphases added)). As we will see,
    under either theory, Mr. Dominguez’s prejudice showing is inadequate and,
    therefore, his ineffective-assistance claim fails.
    a
    Mr. Dominguez’s denial-of-trial-right theory falls squarely within Hill’s
    rubric. “In cases where a defendant complains that ineffective assistance led him
    to accept a plea offer as opposed to proceeding to trial, the defendant will have to
    show ‘a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s errors, he would not have
    pleaded guilty and would have insisted on going to trial.’” Missouri v. Frye, 
    566 U.S. 134
    , 148 (2012) (quoting Hill, 
    474 U.S. at 59
    ). Under this rubric, it is clear
    that Mr. Dominguez’s mere insistence that he would have maintained his plea of
    not guilty and proceeded to trial is not enough to show Strickland prejudice. See,
    e.g., Miller, 
    262 F.3d at 1072
    . And we conclude that Mr. Dominguez’s prejudice
    showing is otherwise insufficient. In particular, he has failed to demonstrate that
    his rejection of his plea agreement would have been rational under the
    circumstances. See, e.g., Heard, 728 F.3d at 1184.
    The potential sentencing alternatives drive this point home. Most
    significantly, as the government stresses, Mr. Dominguez’s twenty-eight-year
    sentence under his plea agreement was very advantageous to him because it was
    seventy-six months below the low end of the applicable Guidelines range—even
    when we consider only the offenses to which he pleaded guilty. See Aplee.’s
    39
    Resp. Br. at 5; R., Vol. III, ¶ 130, at 195 (Am. Presentence Investigation Report
    (“PSR”), filed Feb. 26, 2019) (noting that Mr. Dominguez’s “binding Plea
    Agreement is advantageous to [him], as it is 76 months below the low-end of the
    advisory guideline range”); R., Vol. III, ¶ 137, at 196 (“The defendant’s guideline
    range is 292 to 365 months imprisonment, plus a 10 year[] consecutive sentence,
    which results in a total sentence of 34 to 40 years. The Plea Agreement provides
    for a total sentence of 336 months, or 28 years. . . . [T]herefore, the Court will
    need to vary downward 76 months to achieve the agreed upon sentence.”).
    Beyond the Guidelines, acceptance of the plea agreement was seemingly
    rational in light of the statutory penalties associated with Mr. Dominguez’s
    charges. Even putting aside for the moment his § 924(c) offenses, if Mr.
    Dominguez had gone to trial and been convicted of all of the other charges, he
    faced very lengthy statutory maximum sentences: up to one hundred years on the
    charges in the New Mexico indictment and up to sixty-five years on the charges
    in the Wyoming indictment. Moreover, even if he had gone to trial after
    enactment of the First Step Act, Mr. Dominguez would not have completely
    escaped the harsh, consecutive-sentence regime of § 924(c). Indeed, if he had
    been convicted of all three § 924(c) offenses charged in the New Mexico and
    Wyoming indictments, after the First Step Act’s enactment, Mr. Dominguez
    would have been subject to a mandatory minimum sentence of twenty-seven
    years, just based on those offenses alone. That is, he would have faced—based
    40
    solely on the § 924(c) offenses—a mandatory minimum sentence that was only
    one year shorter than the total sentence that he faced under his plea agreement
    with the government.
    Moreover, recall that the maximum sentence for all § 924(c) offenses is life
    imprisonment. Therefore, without a plea agreement, Mr. Dominguez had no
    assurance that he would only be sentenced to a mandatory minimum for any
    § 924(c) offense for which he was convicted. Furthermore, this tally of penalties
    that Mr. Dominguez avoided by pleading guilty does not even account for the
    potential charges the government agreed not to pursue in relation to a bank
    robbery in Albuquerque, New Mexico. According to Mr. Dominguez’s PSR, this
    offense would have independently yielded upon conviction a Guidelines range of
    324 to 405 months’ imprisonment. In sum, Mr. Dominguez’s plea agreement was
    very favorable to him, and this militates strongly in favor of a conclusion that it
    would have been irrational for him to reject it.
    To be sure, this favorability calculus turns on the likelihood that Mr.
    Dominguez would have been convicted if he had proceeded to trial. In other
    words, Mr. Dominguez’s plea agreement was very favorable to him because it
    protected him from severe penalties that he likely would have faced upon
    conviction following trial. But, if it was unlikely that he would have been
    convicted at trial, then, logically, it would have been more rational for him to
    reject the plea agreement; indeed, it would have been more reasonably probable
    41
    that he would do so and go to trial. Cf. Heard, 728 F.3d at 1185–86 (concluding
    that the defendant had demonstrated he was prejudiced by his counsel’s
    ineffective assistance and that it would have been “rational under the
    circumstances” to reject his plea bargain and proceed to trial where, inter alia, the
    defendant “could have mounted several potentially meritorious challenges to his
    conviction on appeal” (quoting Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at 372
    )); Ostrander v. Green, 
    46 F.3d 347
    , 356 (4th Cir. 1995) (concluding that a “reasonable defendant” had
    demonstrated that he would not have pleaded guilty, but for his counsel’s errors,
    based in part on the “potential strength of the state’s case”—“which [was] hardly
    invincible on its face”), overruled on other grounds by O’Dell v. Netherland, 
    95 F.3d 1214
     (4th Cir. 1996) (en banc).
    But Mr. Dominguez does not meaningfully contend that weaknesses in the
    government’s proof put the prejudice question in a different light. In other words,
    he does not meaningfully argue that such weaknesses would have made it more
    rational for him to reject the plea agreement—much less more reasonably
    probable that he would do so and go to trial. Cf. Moreno-Espada v. United States,
    
    666 F.3d 60
    , 67 n.7 (1st Cir. 2012) (rejecting defendant’s argument that, but for
    his counsel’s ineffective assistance, he would have gone to trial instead of
    pleading guilty based on the weakness of the government’s evidence, where the
    record belied such an assertion of weakness).
    42
    As noted, in seeking to withdraw his plea, Mr. Dominguez has never
    asserted that he is innocent of the charged crimes. Moreover, at no point in his
    appellate briefing has he questioned the strength of the government’s proof as to
    the New Mexico offenses. Indeed, before the district court, Mr. Dominguez’s
    counsel noted that the evidence against his client in the New Mexico case was
    “substantial,” and that “there was no doubt in [his] mind . . . that Mr. Dominguez
    was likely to be convicted” on the New Mexico charges. R., Vol. V, at 92–93.
    As to the Wyoming offenses, Mr. Dominguez hardly does more than assert in
    conclusory fashion that the government possessed “relatively weak evidence”—
    noting that “there was no eye-witness or DNA evidence connecting Mr.
    Dominguez to the crimes,” whereas there was such evidence with respect to his
    co-defendants. Aplt.’s Opening Br. at 4, 15.
    But, while the government freely acknowledges that there was no such
    evidence in the Wyoming case that incriminated Mr. Dominguez, it asserts that
    “the robbery in [New Mexico] was important evidence tying [Mr. Dominguez] to
    his crimes in Wyoming” and that “the similarities between the two crimes were so
    striking” that if the Wyoming charges had been tried, “the district court [had]
    ruled that the government could present evidence of the [New Mexico] robbery in
    the Wyoming matter to demonstrate identity, intent, preparation, and common
    plan.” Aplee.’s Resp. Br. at 10. Moreover, the government reminds us that it
    agreed to forgo charges related to the 2015 New Mexico bank robbery, where it
    43
    claims there was strong forensic evidence linking Mr. Dominguez to the offense.
    In response to all of these government assertions, Mr. Dominguez offers nothing
    but deafening silence.
    Accordingly, Mr. Dominguez does not come close to showing that any
    ostensible weaknesses in the government’s proof of guilt would have made it
    rational for him to forgo his very favorable plea agreement. 12 Nor does he point
    12
    Indeed, in unpublished decisions involving analogous circumstances,
    panels of our court have persuasively concluded that defendants did not show that
    it would have been rational for them to reject their plea agreements. Cf. United
    States v. Clark, 596 F. App’x 696, 701–02 (10th Cir. 2014) (unpublished) (“[The
    defendant] says prejudice is established by his statement that but for counsel’s
    errors, he would have proceeded to trial. . . . As the district court noted, ‘[i]n
    light of the evidence and the significant benefits which defendant received under
    the plea agreement, defendant has not shown how a decision to reject the plea
    agreement would have been rational under the circumstances.’” (second alteration
    in original) (citations omitted) (quoting United States v. Clark,
    No. 12-2551-KHV, 
    2013 WL 5314429
    , at *3 (D. Kan. Sept. 23, 2013))); United
    States v. Mooneyham, 580 F. App’x 657, 659–60 (10th Cir. 2014) (unpublished)
    (“[The defendant] had to identify facts indicating that ‘a decision to reject the
    plea bargain would have been rational under the circumstances.’ [He] cannot
    make that showing. . . . If [the defendant] had gone to trial, he would have faced
    the potential for a harsher sentence. And, had he gone to trial, he likely would
    have been convicted because the evidence of guilt was strong. Because [the
    defendant] has not identified facts indicating that a rational defendant might have
    preferred trial over the plea offer, he cannot show prejudice; thus, we reject the
    claim of ineffective assistance of counsel.” (citations omitted) (quoting Heard,
    728 F.3d at 1184)); United States v. Tuakalau, 562 F. App’x 604, 609 (10th Cir.
    2014) (unpublished) (“Even were we to assume trial counsel’s performance was
    inadequate under Strickland’s first prong, [the defendant] must also satisfy the
    second prong by showing prejudice. . . . [The defendant] was facing a potential
    minimum mandatory sentence of 185 years imprisonment. We agree with the
    district judge: rejecting a plea bargain dismissing numerous charges and
    guaranteeing a thirty-year sentence would not have been rational.” (citation
    omitted)).
    44
    to any other circumstances that might suggest that his rejection of his plea
    agreement would be rational. In short, in light of the foregoing, Mr. Dominguez
    has not satisfied Strickland’s reasonable-probability standard under Hill’s rubric:
    that is, Mr. Dominguez has not shown that there is a reasonable probability that,
    but for any deficiency in his counsel’s representation concerning the First Step
    Act, he would have rejected the plea agreement and gone to trial.
    b
    As for Mr. Dominguez’s focus on the purported denial of a potentially
    better plea agreement—that is, his “better-plea” theory—to begin, Mr. Dominguez
    faces two significant threshold hurdles. But, even if he overcomes them, we
    conclude that Mr. Dominguez’s showing on the merits of the prejudice question
    comes up short. Turning to the threshold issues, first, a cogent argument could be
    made that Mr. Dominguez has not preserved this theory by failing to make any
    argument for it in his opening brief. 13 See, e.g., United States v. Leffler, 
    942 F.3d 13
    Indeed, there appears to be no indication in the record that Mr.
    Dominguez ever broached the better-plea theory before the district court. Rather,
    he framed his prejudice argument in terms of the denial of a trial right (i.e., under
    the Hill rubric). See, e.g., R., Vol. V, at 100 (where defense counsel argued that,
    had he better digested the First Step Act’s impact and advised Mr. Dominguez of
    that impact, while he “c[ouldn’t] say for certain that [Mr. Dominguez] wouldn’t
    have changed his plea [to guilty], . . . [he] c[ould] say almost for certain [Mr.
    Dominguez] wouldn’t have changed his plea.” (emphasis added)); see also 
    id.
     (“I
    can say that . . . had the First Step Act been out awhile, . . . had we been sitting
    here today moving to change his plea, he wouldn’t have changed his plea; we
    would be preparing for a jury trial.” (emphasis added)). And he does not invoke
    the plain-error rubric in advancing this theory on appeal. Therefore, on this basis
    (continued...)
    45
    1192, 1197 (10th Cir. 2019) (“In this Circuit, we generally do not consider
    arguments made for the first time on appeal in an appellant’s reply brief and deem
    those arguments waived.”). The government, however, does not make any such
    preservation argument—at oral argument or otherwise. Cf. United States v.
    McGehee, 
    672 F.3d 860
    , 873 n.5 (10th Cir. 2012) (noting that, “although we do
    not accord the fact great weight in our analysis, we note that the government did
    contend at oral argument that [the defendant] failed to preserve the
    acceptance-of-responsibility argument”). And, even if Mr. Dominguez has failed
    to preserve this argument, we possess the discretion to consider it. See, e.g.,
    Abernathy v. Wandes, 
    713 F.3d 538
    , 552 (10th Cir. 2013) (“[T]he decision
    regarding what issues are appropriate to entertain on appeal in instances of lack of
    preservation is discretionary.”). We elect to do so under the circumstances of this
    criminal case.
    The second hurdle is substantive and more serious. At a minimum, it is
    open to significant doubt whether the better-plea theory is a cognizable theory of
    Strickland prejudice. See, e.g., Short v. United States, 
    471 F.3d 686
    , 696–97 (6th
    Cir. 2006) (“The Supreme Court has developed a specific standard that defendants
    13
    (...continued)
    alone, Mr. Dominguez seemingly has failed to preserve the better-plea theory.
    See, e.g., Fish v. Kobach, 
    840 F.3d 710
    , 729–30 (10th Cir. 2016). However, as
    we do infra, we exercise our discretion to overlook any preservation issue arising
    from these circumstances and reach the merits; having done so, we conclude that
    Mr. Dominguez does not prevail in any event.
    46
    who plead guilty must meet to demonstrate prejudice with respect to their
    representation by counsel. . . . [I]n the present case, the petitioner’s claim of
    prejudice rests upon an assertion that he wound up with a less favorable plea or
    sentence than he otherwise would have accepted with the advice of competent
    counsel. Such a claim is insufficient to establish actual prejudice.” (citations
    omitted)); Bethel v. United States, 
    458 F.3d 711
    , 720 (7th Cir. 2006) (“To
    demonstrate prejudice, the defendant must show that he would not have pled
    guilty and would have insisted on going to trial. Whether he could have
    negotiated a better plea deal is irrelevant to the issue of prejudice in the
    ineffective assistance context.”); United States v. Horne, 
    987 F.2d 833
    , 836 (D.C.
    Cir. 1993) (“Nothing in the present record suggests that [defendant] had (or even
    now has) any intention of pleading not guilty and going to trial. . . . It is
    apparent, therefore, that [defendant] wants to withdraw his guilty plea solely in
    order to strike a better deal with the prosecutor. The constitutional requirement
    of effective assistance of counsel is intended, however, to guarantee a fair
    disposition of defendant’s case, not to ensure that he is able to drive the hardest
    possible plea bargain with the Government.”); Fields v. Att’y Gen. of Md., 
    956 F.2d 1290
    , 1297 & n.19 (4th Cir. 1992) (concluding that a defendant could not
    “make the showing of prejudice required under . . . Strickland” where the “crux of
    [his] case [was] that with effective assistance he would have pled to a different
    plea bargain and received a more favorable sentence,” not that he would have
    47
    “stood trial”); Craker v. McCotter, 
    805 F.2d 538
    , 542 (5th Cir. 1986)
    (“[Defendant’s] allegation here that effective counsel would have negotiated a
    better bargain also fails to satisfy the prejudice prong of Strickland as interpreted
    in Hill. Under Hill, the question is not whether [defendant] would have received
    a better deal with effective representation, but whether he would have rejected the
    deal offered and gone to trial.”). 14
    14
    The Sixth and Ninth Circuits have signaled their openness to
    considering a better-plea theory in assessing prejudice arguments under
    Strickland’s framework; notably, in the last ten years, according to our research,
    these two circuits appear to have focused their attention on the immigration
    context. See, e.g., Rodriguez-Penton v. United States, 
    905 F.3d 481
    , 487–88 (6th
    Cir. 2018) (citing Missouri v. Frye, 
    566 U.S. at
    141–42, in reasoning that
    “[r]ecent Supreme Court authority has expanded Hill’s holding in material ways,”
    and “hold[ing] that [the petitioner] may demonstrate prejudice if he can show
    that, had he known [from competent counsel] about the risk of adverse
    immigration consequences, he would have bargained for a more favorable plea”
    (emphasis added)); United States v. Rodriguez-Vega, 
    797 F.3d 781
    , 788–90 (9th
    Cir. 2015) (allowing a defendant to show Strickland prejudice either by
    demonstrating that “there existed a reasonable probability of negotiating a better
    plea by identifying cases indicating a willingness by the government to permit
    defendants charged with the same or a substantially similar crime to plead guilty
    to a non-removable offense” or “by showing that she settled on a charge in a
    purposeful attempt to avoid an adverse effect on her immigration status”—all
    while holding, in the alternative, that the defendant established prejudice because
    she demonstrated a reasonable probability she would have gone to trial “in the
    absence of a more favorable plea agreement” (emphases added)); cf. United States
    v. Howard, 
    381 F.3d 873
    , 882 (9th Cir. 2004) (in a decision from a prior decade,
    involving a federal criminal defendant in a 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
     proceeding, stating
    that “[t]o satisfy Strickland’s prejudice prong, [the prisoner] must allege that but
    for counsel’s errors, he would either have gone to trial or received a better plea
    bargain” (emphasis added)). But see Rodriguez-Penton, 905 F.3d at 491–92
    (Thapar, J., dissenting) (“In recent years, the Supreme Court has decided several
    important cases defining the Sixth Amendment rights of criminal defendants who
    plead guilty. . . . Notwithstanding these decisions, the Supreme Court has never
    (continued...)
    48
    In particular, our research has not uncovered any Tenth Circuit controlling
    precedent that has expressly considered whether such a prejudice theory is
    cognizable under Strickland—much less endorsed it. 15 And Mr. Dominguez has
    14
    (...continued)
    held that a criminal defendant has a right to try to bargain for a plea offer he
    never received.”). Fortunately, it is not our responsibility in this case to
    determine the sweep of these decisions and, more specifically, whether they
    indicate that the Sixth and Ninth Circuits fully countenance the use of the better-
    plea theory of Strickland prejudice in the criminal context, as well as the
    immigration context. It suffices for us to note that, even if the reasoning of these
    cases concerning the better-plea theory does fully apply in the criminal context, it
    is nevertheless true that the weight of circuit authority appears to cast significant
    doubt on the cognizability of this theory.
    15
    In the interest of completeness, we do highlight certain stray
    language in Heard that alludes to a better plea bargain in the ineffective-
    assistance setting. Importantly, recall that Heard analyzed a Strickland prejudice
    question in the guilty-plea context by invoking Hill’s well-established rubric. See
    Heard, 728 F.3d at 1186 (“However, in light of all of the possibilities for a more
    favorable outcome we have discussed . . ., we hold that as a matter of law, [the
    petitioner] has carried his burden to demonstrate ‘a reasonable probability that,
    but for counsel’s errors, he would not have pleaded guilty and would have insisted
    on going to trial.’” (emphasis added) (quoting Hill, 
    474 U.S. at 59
    )). But, in the
    course of its Hill analysis, Heard makes the following statement:
    [T]here are several ways [petitioner’s] lawyer credibly could
    have favorably ‘changed the outcome’ of [petitioner’s] case had
    she made reasonable use of those cases. For example, it is
    reasonably probable that bringing those cases to the prosecutor’s
    attention during the plea-negotiation stage could have resulted in
    a better bargain, lesser charges, or even dismissal of the case
    altogether.
    Id. at 1184. Though this language does refer to the reasonable probability of
    negotiating a better plea deal, we do not think this brief aside can be reasonably
    viewed as any form of meaningful engagement by the Heard panel with the
    question of whether a better-plea theory of prejudice is cognizable under
    (continued...)
    49
    not identified any Tenth Circuit authority to this effect. Indeed, Mr. Dominguez
    completely elides in his briefing this substantive threshold question.
    Nevertheless, we need not pause to assess the implications of Mr. Dominguez’s
    briefing failure, nor is it necessary for us to consider (unaided) whether this
    prejudice theory is cognizable under Strickland. That is because, even if Mr.
    Dominguez’s better-plea theory were cognizable, he would not be able to
    establish prejudice under it here.
    More specifically, Mr. Dominguez’s better-plea theory is built on a
    foundation of speculation and conjecture. He cites to nothing in the record
    indicating that the government would have offered him a plea agreement more
    favorable than the one he accepted, regardless of the circumstances. Cf. R., Vol.
    V, at 117 (the government, at the district court’s hearing on Mr. Dominguez’s
    motion to withdraw, noting that the plea agreement was “reasonable” because it
    offered Mr. Dominguez a sentence “76 months below the guideline range”); id. at
    118 (the government emphasizing that “the potential sentences” for Mr.
    Dominguez’s § 924(c) violations “were all exactly the same” after the First Step
    15
    (...continued)
    Strickland—much less as endorsement of such a theory. Significantly, Heard’s
    remark concerning a better plea deal comes in the context of a prejudice analysis
    expressly grounded on Hill’s rubric concerning the denial of a trial right. And, at
    most, the panel makes this plea-deal observation in bolstering its contention that
    the Hill measure of prejudice was satisfied. Therefore, Heard does not illuminate
    the cognizability question concerning the better-plea prejudice theory, and the
    matter remains open in our circuit.
    50
    Act, and that if Mr. Dominguez had been “convicted on all of these charges,” he
    would not have been “looking at anywhere close to 28 years or certainly wouldn’t
    be under almost any reasonable analysis”).
    Without more than sheer speculation and conjecture suggesting that it was
    reasonably probable that the government would have given him a more favorable
    plea agreement, Mr. Dominguez’s better-plea theory of prejudice must fail. See,
    e.g., Hooks v. Workman, 
    689 F.3d 1148
    , 1187 (10th Cir. 2012) (“Reasonable
    probability is more than mere speculation . . . .”); Byrd, 
    645 F.3d at 1168
     (noting
    that “mere speculation is not sufficient to satisfy this [Strickland prejudice]
    burden”); cf. Frye, 
    566 U.S. at 148
     (“[D]efendants who have shown a reasonable
    probability they would have accepted the earlier plea offer must also show that, if
    the prosecution had the discretion to cancel it or if the trial court had the
    discretion to refuse to accept it, there is a reasonable probability neither the
    prosecution nor the trial court would have prevented the offer from being
    accepted or implemented. This further showing is of particular importance
    because a defendant has no right to be offered a plea . . . .” (emphasis added));
    Rodriguez-Penton v. United States, 
    905 F.3d 481
    , 493 (6th Cir. 2018) (Thapar, J.,
    dissenting) (noting that, even under a more-expansive reading of Supreme Court
    precedent, “a defendant still must show a ‘reasonable probability’ that, but for
    counsel’s bad advice, he would have received a chance to negotiate a better
    51
    offer—something much more difficult in the plea-bargaining context” (quoting
    Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1969)).
    In short, Mr. Dominguez’s suggestion that he could have negotiated a better
    plea agreement—if he had been equipped by his lawyer with knowledge of the
    First Step Act—is objectively groundless. Therefore, even if the better-plea
    theory were a cognizable theory of Strickland prejudice, Mr. Dominguez would
    not prevail on it here.
    c
    All that said, we acknowledge Mr. Dominguez’s repeated suggestion that
    the record potently supports his contention that, if properly advised concerning
    the First Step Act, he would have rejected the plea agreement, because in fact he
    took affirmative steps to do so. More specifically, Mr. Dominguez emphasizes
    that he filed his motion to withdraw his plea “immediately after he became aware
    of the First Step Act’s impact on his case.” Aplt.’s Opening Br. at 13 (noting that
    his responsive action in filing the motion “constitutes per se evidence that he
    would not have pleaded guilty if he had been correctly informed of the law before
    he had changed his plea” (emphasis added)); see Aplt.’s Reply Br. at 13 (arguing
    that “the record demonstrates that there is every reason to question whether Mr.
    Dominguez would have entered into the same plea agreement with the
    government had he been properly informed of the available alternatives” and
    pointing out that “[t]he most telling piece of evidence is that when Mr.
    52
    Dominguez was properly informed of the law, he moved to withdraw his plea”
    (emphasis added)).
    We do not question that, under certain circumstances, a defendant’s
    affirmative efforts to withdraw his guilty plea—upon receiving reasonably
    competent advice from counsel—may be a relevant factor in assessing whether
    counsel’s allegedly deficient pre-plea advice prejudiced the defendant under
    Strickland. See, e.g., Gonzalez v. United States, 
    722 F.3d 118
    , 133 (2d Cir. 2013)
    (“[T]he fact that an attempt was made to withdraw the guilty plea and go to trial
    may not be dispositive on the issue of [ineffective assistance of counsel]
    prejudice; however, it is a factor that must be considered by the court in assessing
    whether there is a reasonable probability that but for substandard performance by
    counsel, the defendant would have chosen to eschew the plea and go to trial.”).
    However, Mr. Dominguez does not convince us that his actions regarding his
    motion to withdraw significantly support his contention that there is a reasonable
    probability that, but for his counsel’s allegedly deficient representation
    concerning the First Step Act, he would not have entered into his plea agreement.
    To begin, Mr. Dominguez’s actions relating to the filing of his motion to
    withdraw arguably were not the product of a genuine desire to proceed to trial,
    upon receiving constitutionally adequate advice concerning the First Step Act,
    but, rather, the outgrowth of a negotiating strategy aimed at leveraging the First
    Step Act’s stacking amendment to secure a better plea. See, e.g., Aplt.’s Reply
    53
    Br. at 15 (noting that the record shows that Mr. Dominguez’s “counsel is
    equivocating [about whether Mr. Dominguez would have pleaded guilty] because
    . . . Mr. Dominguez might still have pleaded guilty, but under a more beneficial
    plea agreement” (emphasis added)); see also Gonzalez, 722 F.3d at 133 (noting
    that “a court might reasonably find in some circumstances that a defendant’s
    request to withdraw his plea of guilty did not reflect a genuine desire to go to
    trial”). Insofar as that is so, we already have explained why, from an objective
    perspective, the prospect of a better plea here was speculative and
    conjectural—and, consequently, an inadequate basis for a claim of Strickland
    prejudice. See, e.g., Byrd, 
    645 F.3d at 1168
    .
    Thus, as relevant here, even assuming that Mr. Dominguez’s post-plea
    knowledge of the First Step Act prompted him to file a motion to withdraw with
    the subjective aim of getting a better plea agreement, that action would not
    signify that Mr. Dominguez was objectively prejudiced by his counsel’s advice to
    enter the existing plea agreement because Mr. Dominguez’s prospect of a better
    plea agreement was only speculative and conjectural. See, e.g., Bonney I, 754
    F.3d at 884 (noting that the Supreme Court has cited Strickland “in support of an
    objective prejudice standard”); Hooks, 689 F.3d at 1187 (noting that “[r]easonable
    probability is more than mere speculation”).
    Alternatively, let us assume for the present analysis that Mr. Dominguez’s
    actions regarding the motion to withdraw genuinely reflected a subjective
    54
    willingness to risk a trial. Even so, Mr. Dominguez has not demonstrated that the
    cause of his newfound willingness to go to trial—which he swore in open court
    did not exist at the time he pleaded guilty—stemmed from his post-plea
    awareness of the First Step Act’s implications, rather than from some other
    reason.
    In this regard, recall that Strickland’s prejudice analysis involves a
    “counterfactual” inquiry that hinges on counsel’s alleged ineffective
    representation—that is, the inquiry turns on whether, but for such ineffective
    representation, there is a reasonable probability that the outcome of the
    proceeding would have been different. Headley v. United States, 804 F. App’x
    973, 979 (10th Cir. 2020) (unpublished). Consequently, factors unrelated to
    counsel’s ineffective representation do not fall within the compass of Strickland
    prejudice, even if there is a reasonable probability that, but for those factors, the
    outcome of the proceeding would have been different.
    Here, as shown above, whether or not Mr. Dominguez possessed knowledge
    of the First Step Act, he would have been hard pressed to see his plea
    agreement—viewed through an objective lens—as anything other than very
    favorable. And nothing material about the First Step Act changed after Mr.
    Dominguez pleaded guilty and the statute became law. But there were changes
    that did not involve the First Step Act around the time and after Mr. Dominguez
    pleaded guilty relating to the status of his co-defendants; these changes
    55
    conceivably could have altered his assessment of the risks of going to trial.
    Specifically, as the government notes, Mr. Dominguez’s “motion came . . . well
    after he knew that he would not sit at trial with his two co-defendants and their
    DNA implicated cases.” Aplee.’s Resp. Br. at 35.
    In other words, when Mr. Dominguez filed his motion to withdraw, he
    knew that his co-defendants—as to whom the government’s evidence was
    admittedly stronger, including DNA evidence—were not going be tried with him
    because they previously had pleaded guilty. And it is at least arguable that this
    knowledge was the factor that altered his risk calculation regarding going to trial
    and prompted him to file his motion to withdraw—not the knowledge that he
    allegedly should have received from his lawyer concerning the First Step Act.
    To be clear, we have no need to reach a definitive conclusion on this
    matter. It suffices for us to conclude that the timing of Mr. Dominguez’s motion
    to withdraw and, relatedly, his actions in filing that motion do not have the clear,
    unequivocal import that Mr. Dominguez suggests. That is, these circumstances
    do not “constitute[] per se evidence that he would not have pleaded guilty if he
    had been correctly informed of the law before he had changed his plea.” Aplt.’s
    Opening Br. at 13; cf. United States v. Santiago Miranda, 
    654 F.3d 130
    , 139–40
    (1st Cir. 2011) (noting that “the timing of [the defendant’s] motion to withdraw
    his guilty plea is suspect” because the motion was filed “well after [the
    56
    defendant’s] attorney received an unfavorable PSR,” indicating that “the benefit
    of pleading guilty and the risk of proceeding to trial dissipated substantially”).
    Instead, viewed in the context of the foregoing analysis regarding why it
    was entirely rational for Mr. Dominguez to enter into his plea agreement, his
    filing of his motion to withdraw and the timing of it do not alter our view that Mr.
    Dominguez has failed to show that there is a reasonable probability that, but for
    any deficiency in his counsel’s advice concerning the First Step Act, the outcome
    of his plea proceeding would have been different. In other words, Mr.
    Dominguez’s filing of his motion to withdraw and the timing of it do not—alone
    or in combination with other factors—change our bottom-line conclusion that he
    does not establish Strickland prejudice.
    ***
    In the end, we are left with little more than Mr. Dominguez’s say-so as to
    whether he would have rejected his plea agreement if his counsel had informed
    him of the First Step Act’s implications. But while such “bald, post hoc and
    unsupported statements” may be a necessary predicate to Mr. Dominguez’s
    Strickland prejudice showing, they are insufficient, on their own, to carry his
    burden of proof. Heard, 728 F.3d at 1184.
    IV
    For the foregoing reasons, we conclude that the district court did not abuse
    its discretion in denying Mr. Dominguez’s motion to withdraw his guilty plea
    57
    because (1) his plea was knowing and intelligent and (2) he received “close
    assistance” of counsel. Accordingly, we AFFIRM the district court’s judgment.
    58
    United States v. Dominguez, Nos. 19-8021 & 19-8022
    LUCERO, J., dissenting:
    I appreciate the lengthy and thorough review my colleagues provide in the
    majority opinion, but I remain unpersuaded. Although I agree that “there is no
    requirement that a defendant be advised of all potential collateral consequences of a
    guilty plea,” (Op. 22, quoting United States v. Muhammad, 
    747 F.3d 1234
    , 1239-40 (10th
    Cir. 2014)), the penalties a defendant avoids by pleading guilty are anything but
    collateral. Avoidance of potential penalties was the basic impetus that motivated
    Dominguez to enter into his plea agreement with the United States. Unequivocal failure
    by counsel for Dominguez to advise him of law that dramatically altered those penalties
    amounts to ineffective assistance of counsel. As a result, I would conclude Dominguez is
    entitled to withdraw his guilty plea.
    I
    Plea bargaining is commonly predicated on avoided penalties. A defendant whose
    counsel fails to provide even a moderately accurate picture of what penalties a guilty plea
    would avoid cannot make an informed pleading decision. This follows from the nature of
    plea bargaining. “[P]lea bargains are essentially contracts.” Puckett v. United States,
    
    556 U.S. 129
    , 137 (2009). When a party to a contract is severely misinformed by counsel
    about the benefits a contract will yield, counsel has undoubtedly failed the client. In the
    1
    context of entering a plea, a critical stage of the criminal process,1 such a failure
    constitutes ineffective assistance of counsel and is grounds for vacating a plea agreement.
    The majority consigns counsel’s failure to irrelevancy. In its view, Dominguez’s
    expectation that he would understand the benefits of a potential plea bargain is simply too
    much to ask—a criminal defendant is entitled to understand only “the penalties and direct
    consequences associated with the charges to which he pleaded guilty,” not “penalties or
    potential consequences associated with charges to which he did not plead guilty.” (Op.
    25). No matter that those charges “to which he did not plead guilty” were a primary
    motivation behind the defendant’s guilty plea.
    This cabined view of the “knowingly and intelligently” requirement for guilty
    pleas cannot be right. Demanding only that a criminal defendant understands the
    penalties to be received, not the penalties to be avoided, is tantamount to requiring that
    the defendant only understand half the bargain. This falls well short of what the
    Constitution and our caselaw demand.
    II
    When a defendant moves to withdraw a guilty plea prior to sentencing, the court
    must assess whether there is a “fair and just reason for withdrawal” under Federal Rule of
    Criminal Procedure 11(d)(2)(B) by considering the factors set forth in United States v.
    Yazzie, 
    407 F.3d 1139
    , 1142 (10th Cir. 2005). We review this determination for an
    abuse of discretion. 
    Id.
     Dominguez’s challenge to the district court’s denial of his
    1
    See Williams v. Jones, 
    571 F.3d 1086
    , 1090-91 (10th Cir. 2009).
    2
    motion to withdraw his guilty plea turns on two of the Yazzie factors: “whether close
    assistance of counsel was available to the defendant . . . [and] whether the plea was
    knowing and voluntary.” 
    Id.
     Although “close assistance of counsel” is not further
    explained in Yazzie, the Supreme Court has stated that “the right to counsel is the right to
    effective assistance of counsel.” Missouri v. Frye, 
    566 U.S. 134
    , 138 (2012).
    The analysis of the Yazzie factors relevant to Dominguez’s motion to withdraw
    his guilty plea therefore requires a determination of whether his counsel was ineffective
    under Strickland, a determination that would also render his plea not voluntary or
    intelligent. Consequently, the analysis outlined by the Supreme Court in Hill v. Lockhart
    is the relevant inquiry to assess these Yazzie factors in the context of whether Dominguez
    provided a “fair and just” reason for withdrawal.
    In Hill v. Lockhart, the Supreme Court applied the two-part Strickland test to
    challenges of guilty pleas based on ineffective assistance of counsel. 
    474 U.S. 52
    , 58
    (1985). “To demonstrate that counsel was constitutionally ineffective, a defendant must
    show that counsel’s representation fell below an objective standard of reasonableness and
    that he was prejudiced as a result.” Lee v. United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 1958
    , 1964 (2017)
    (quotation omitted). As the Supreme Court explained, “the first half of the Strickland v.
    Washington test is nothing more than a restatement of the standard of attorney
    competence already set forth in Tollett v. Henderson . . . and McMann v. Richardson.”
    Hill, 
    474 U.S. at
    58-59 (citing Tollett v. Henderson, 
    411 U.S. 258
     (1973) and McMann v.
    Richardson, 
    397 U.S. 759
     (1970)). Under McMann and Tollett, whether a guilty plea is
    unintelligent “depends . . . on whether that advice was within the range of competence
    3
    demanded of attorneys in criminal cases.” McMann, 
    397 U.S. at 770-71
    ; see also Tollett,
    
    411 U.S. at 266
    . “In order to satisfy the ‘prejudice’ requirement, the defendant must
    show that there is a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s errors, he would not
    have pleaded guilty and would have insisted on going to trial.” Hill, 
    474 U.S. at 59
    .
    Unlike my colleagues in the majority, I conclude that Dominguez has met both
    requirements of the Strickland test. First, his counsel’s performance was objectively
    deficient.
    The first prong—constitutional deficiency—is necessarily linked to the practice
    and expectations of the legal community: The proper measure of attorney
    performance remains simply reasonableness under prevailing professional norms.
    We long have recognized that prevailing norms of practice as reflected in
    American Bar Association standards and the like are guides to determining what is
    reasonable.
    Padilla v. Kentucky, 
    559 U.S. 356
    , 366 (2010) (cleaned up). The American Bar
    Association Criminal Justice Standards for the Defense Function impose “a duty to be
    well-informed regarding the legal options and developments that can affect a client’s
    interests during a criminal representation.” Am. Bar Ass’n Standards for Criminal
    Justice: The Defense Function, 4-4.1.3 (4th ed. 2017). As trial defense counsel appears
    to acknowledge, his failure to research or make himself aware of the pending change in
    federal sentencing law effectuated by the First Step Act did not fulfill this duty, and that
    failure was objectively unreasonable.
    The First Step Act was “heralded as the most far-reaching overhaul of the criminal
    justice system in a generation,” receiving extensive press coverage during its
    consideration and passage by Congress. Alan Ellis and Mark H. Allenbaugh, The First
    4
    Step Act of 2018—A Significant First Step in Sentencing Reform, Bloomberg Law, Jan.
    10, 2019 (quotation omitted). Given the critical importance of the First Step Act’s
    changes to the stacking provisions under § 924(c) and the widespread publicity
    concerning the legislation, defense counsel’s failure to research or monitor its passage
    was objectively unreasonable. See Hinton v. Alabama, 
    571 U.S. 263
    , 274 (2014) (“An
    attorney’s ignorance of a point of law that is fundamental to his case combined with his
    failure to perform basic research on that point is a quintessential example of unreasonable
    performance under Strickland.”).
    At the hearing on the motion to withdraw his plea, the district court evaluated
    defense counsel’s efforts and determined that Dominguez received close assistance of
    counsel. For the district court, defense counsel’s failure to advise Dominguez on
    statutory changes was not deficient, but this finding was premised on the court’s
    erroneous determination that the First Step Act was not yet law:
    While the timing of the plea negotiations leading up to the change of plea is
    unusual, it is important to realize that Defendant was engaged in plea
    negotiations for several weeks prior to the change of plea hearing, when the
    passage of the First Step Act was uncertain. Failure to fully consider this
    legislation that was not signed by the President until (short[l]y) after the
    change of plea hearing does not constitute the lack of close assistance of
    counsel.
    District Court Order at 8 (emphasis added).
    Quite to the contrary, the legislation was signed before the change of plea was
    entered, and was thus the applicable law for analysis of the constitutional effectiveness of
    5
    Dominguez’s defense counsel.2 Given that the First Step Act was a significant criminal
    justice reform measure that received national press coverage, the failure of defense
    counsel to research, understand, and discuss its ramifications if passed with his client is
    objectively unreasonable. That conclusion is inescapable in light of the First Step Act’s
    becoming law prior to the change of plea.
    Although we review the district court’s decision on a motion to withdraw a guilty
    plea deferentially, a district court “by definition abuses its discretion when it makes an
    error of law.” Koon v. United States, 
    518 U.S. 81
    , 100 (1996); see also United States v.
    Lopez-Avila, 
    665 F.3d 1216
    , 1219 (10th Cir. 2011). The First Step Act was effective for
    the entirety of December 21, 2018; it was therefore the law prior to the district court’s
    acceptance of Dominguez’s change of plea. By basing its denial of Dominguez’s motion
    on its conclusion that the law did not change until after the change of plea hearing, the
    district court erred on an issue of law and therefore necessarily abused its discretion.
    Moreover, incorrect sentencing law was communicated to the defendant as a result
    of this change of law. That the pertinent statute was signed into law only just prior to the
    plea hearing is of no moment; the defendant was misinformed and entered a plea based
    upon that misinformation. Only if we are prepared to say that recent changes in the law
    2
    The First Step Act has no specific effective date; as such, it is effective when
    enacted. See Lapeyre v. United States, 
    84 U.S. 191
    , 198 (1872) (“There is no statute
    fixing the time when acts of Congress shall take effect, but it is settled that where no
    other time is prescribed, they take effect from their date. . . . The act becomes effectual
    upon the day of its date. In such cases it is operative from the first moment of that day.”).
    6
    are of no consequence could we possibly ignore such a deficiency. I am not prepared to
    do so.
    Dominguez has also shown prejudice arising from his counsel’s ineffective
    assistance. Contrary to the majority’s contention, we have much more than Dominguez’s
    assertion that he would not have changed his plea had he known of the changes wrought
    by the First Step Act to § 924(c)’s stacking provisions. In the motion to withdraw the
    plea, Dominguez’s trial defense counsel (1) described the central importance of
    § 924(c)’s stacking provisions to Dominguez’s plea, (2) explicitly stated at the
    withdrawal motion hearing that he would not have recommended the plea agreement had
    he known of the First Step Act changes to the stacking provisions, and (3) explained that
    Dominguez would not have pled guilty had he been informed of these changes.
    Counsel’s representations to the district court, particularly when coupled with
    Dominguez’s assertions, demonstrate a strong likelihood that effective assistance of
    counsel would have affected Dominguez’s choice to accept the plea agreement.3
    The majority contends that it would have been irrational for Dominguez to change
    his plea, describing the plea agreement as “very advantageous to [Dominguez] because it
    was seventy-six months below the low end of the applicable Guidelines range . . . .” (Op.
    39). But in the context of the 336 months to which Dominguez was sentenced under the
    plea agreement, a 76-month discount for agreeing to plead guilty is hardly
    3
    Because of my conclusion that Dominguez has established “a reasonable
    probability that, but for counsel’s errors, he would not have pleaded guilty and would
    have insisted on going to trial,” Hill, 
    474 U.S. at 59
    , I do not consider the alternative
    argument that he would have been able to negotiate a more advantageous plea agreement.
    7
    overwhelmingly advantageous. It would certainly not have been irrational for
    Dominguez to chance a trial given how lengthy his plea agreement sentence would be if
    not for the threatened 60-year mandatory minimum that his counsel led him to believe
    was hanging over his head. And that is all that Dominguez needs to show: that his
    “decision to reject the plea bargain would have been rational under the circumstances.”
    Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at 372
    . Having surpassed this “objective floor,” Heard v. Addison, 
    728 F.3d 1170
    , 1184 (10th Cir. 2013) (emphasis omitted), Dominguez’s and his trial
    counsel’s statements that Dominguez would not have pled guilty but for his counsel’s
    ineffective assistance warrant giving Dominguez the opportunity to withdraw his guilty
    plea.
    III
    A defense attorney must correctly advise his client on the consequences not only
    of those charges to which the defendant is pleading guilty but also of the benefits
    accruing from a guilty plea. These benefits are essential, not collateral, to a plea
    agreement. They fall squarely within the requirements of Strickland—and it cannot be
    otherwise, given that plea bargaining “is the criminal justice system.” Frye, 566 at 144.
    “The longstanding test for determining the validity of a guilty plea is whether the plea
    represents a voluntary and intelligent choice among the alternative courses of action open
    to the defendant.” Hill, 
    474 U.S. at 56
     (quotation omitted). With the ubiquity of plea
    bargaining in our criminal justice system, “defendants cannot be left to the mercies of
    incompetent counsel” in assessing the benefits, as well as the costs, of their plea bargain.
    McMann, 
    397 U.S. at 771
    .
    8
    Because the truncated view of the Strickland inquiry adopted by the majority
    violates basic constitutional principles that a guilty plea must be made knowingly and
    voluntarily, and because my colleagues trivialize the importance of material elements of
    the law inherent to the entry of this plea, I respectfully dissent.
    9