Dine Citizens Against Ruining Our Env't v. Bernhardt ( 2019 )


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  •                                                                         FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    PUBLISH                        Tenth Circuit
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS                 May 7, 2019
    Elisabeth A. Shumaker
    FOR THE TENTH CIRCUIT                   Clerk of Court
    _________________________________
    DINE CITIZENS AGAINST RUINING
    OUR ENVIRONMENT; SAN JUAN
    CITIZENS ALLIANCE; WILDEARTH
    GUARDIANS; NATURAL RESOURCES
    DEFENSE COUNCIL,
    Plaintiffs - Appellants,
    No. 18-2089
    v.
    DAVID BERNHARDT, in his official
    capacity as Acting Secretary of the United
    States Department of the Interior; UNITED
    STATES BUREAU OF LAND
    MANAGEMENT, an agency within the
    United States Department of the Interior;
    NEIL KORNZE, in his official capacity as
    Director of the United States Bureau of
    Land Management,
    Defendants - Appellees,
    and
    DJR ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC; BP
    AMERICA PRODUCTION COMPANY;
    AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE;
    ANSCHUTZ EXPLORATION
    CORPORATION; ENDURING
    RESOURCES IV, LLC,
    Intervenor Defendants - Appellees,
    and
    CONOCOPHILLIPS COMPANY;
    BURLINGTON RESOURCES OIL &
    GAS COMPANY LP,
    Intervenor Defendants.
    ------------------------------
    ALL PUEBLO COUNCIL OF
    GOVERNORS; NATIONAL TRUST FOR
    HISTORIC PRESERVATION; NAVAJO
    ALLOTTEES; ALICE BENALLY; LILLY
    COMANCHE; VIRGINIA HARRISON;
    SAMUEL HARRISON; DOLORA
    HESUSE; VERNA MARTINEZ; LOYCE
    PHOENIX,
    Amici Curiae.
    _________________________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of New Mexico
    (D.C. No. 1:15-CV-00209-JB-LF)
    _________________________________
    Samantha Ruscavage-Barz, WildEarth Guardians, Santa Fe, New Mexico (Kyle J. Tisdel,
    Western Environmental Law Center, Taos, New Mexico, with her on the briefs),
    appearing for Appellants.
    Avi Kupfer, U.S. Department of Justice, Environment & Natural Resources Division,
    Washington, D.C. (Michael C. Williams, Of Counsel, Attorney-Advisor, Office of the
    Solicitor, U.S. Department of the Interior, Clare M. Boronow, and Mark R. Haag, U.S.
    Department of Justice, Environment & Natural Resources Division, Washington, D.C.,
    on the brief), for the Defendants-Appellees.
    Hadassah M. Reimer, Holland & Hart LLP, Jackson, Wyoming (Stephen G. Masciocchi,
    and John F. Shepherd, Holland & Hart LLP, Denver, Colorado, Bradford Berge, Holland
    & Hart LLP, Santa Fe, New Mexico, Rebecca W. Watson, Welborn Sullivan Meck &
    Tooley, P.C., Denver, Colorado, Stephen Rosenbaum, Covington & Burling, LLP,
    Washington, D.C., and Jon J. Indall, Comeau Maldegen Templeman & Indall LLP, Santa
    Fe, New Mexico, with her on the brief), appearing for Intervenors-Appellees.
    _________________________________
    Before BRISCOE, McKAY, and HOLMES, Circuit Judges.
    2
    _________________________________
    BRISCOE, Circuit Judge.
    _________________________________
    In this case, we are asked to decide whether the Bureau of Land Management
    violated the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and the National
    Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in granting more than 300 applications for permits
    to drill horizontal, multi-stage hydraulically fracked wells in the Mancos Shale area
    of the San Juan Basin in northeastern New Mexico. Appellants1 sued the Secretary of
    the Department of the Interior, the Bureau of Land Management, and the Secretary of
    the BLM, alleging that the BLM authorized the drilling without fully considering its
    indirect and cumulative impacts on the environment or on historic properties. The
    district court denied Appellants a preliminary injunction, and we affirmed that
    decision in 2016. After merits briefing, the district court concluded that the BLM
    had not violated either NHPA or NEPA and dismissed Appellants’ claims with
    prejudice. Appellants now appeal.
    We have jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. § 1291 and affirm in part, reverse in
    part, and remand with instructions.
    1
    Appellants are four environmental advocacy groups: (1) Diné Citizens
    Against Ruining Our Environment, comprised of Navajo community activists from
    the Four Corners region, (2) San Juan Citizens Alliance, concerned with social,
    economic, and environmental justice in the San Juan Basin, (3) WildEarth Guardians,
    based in Santa Fe, New Mexico and with members and offices throughout the
    western United States, and (4) Natural Resources Defense Council, with members
    throughout the United States, many of whom reside in New Mexico.
    3
    I
    We summarized the underlying facts in the prior appeal.
    The San Juan Basin is a large geographic region in the southwestern
    United States, including part of New Mexico. Drilling for oil and gas has
    occurred in the Basin for more than sixty years, and the Basin is currently
    one of the most prolific sources of natural gas in the country. The Basin
    includes both public and private lands. Many of the public lands and
    resources fall under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management’s
    Farmington Field Office in New Mexico, which manages these lands and
    resources under its published Resource Management Plan.
    In 2000, the BLM initiated the process of revising its existing RMP,
    which had been published in 1988. As part of this process, the BLM
    contracted with the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Geology to
    develop a “reasonably foreseeable development scenario,” or RFDS, to
    predict the foreseeable oil and gas development likely to occur over the
    next twenty years. Based on historic production data and available
    geologic and engineering evidence, the RFDS estimated that 9,970 new oil
    and gas wells would be drilled on federally managed lands in the New
    Mexico portion of the San Juan Basin during this time period. Of these
    wells, the RFDS estimated that more than forty percent would be “Dakota,
    Mancos” gas wells—wells that could produce gas from both the Mancos
    geologic horizon and the Dakota geologic horizon that lies below it. The
    RFDS estimated that only 180 new oil wells would be drilled in the Mancos
    Shale, due to the fact that most reservoirs in the Mancos Shale were
    approaching depletion under then-current technologies, but it noted that
    there is excellent potential for the Mancos to be further evaluated.
    In 2003, the BLM issued its Proposed Resource Management Plan
    and Final Environmental Impact Statement ([2003 EIS]). In this document,
    the BLM referred to the predictions and analysis contained in the RFDS in
    order to assess four proposed alternatives for managing federal lands in the
    San Juan Basin, including the “balanced approach” the agency ultimately
    decided to adopt. Under this balanced approach, the BLM analyzed the
    cumulative impacts of an estimated 9,942 new wells in the San Juan
    Basin—approximately the same number predicted in the 2001 RFDS—by
    looking at, for instance, the likely air quality impacts from the drilling and
    operation of this many new wells in the region. The [2003 EIS] did not
    discuss specific sites or approve any individual wells, although it assumed
    the majority of new wells would be drilled in the high development area in
    the northern part of the managed area. The BLM issued its final RMP,
    4
    adopting the Alternative D balanced approach, in December 2003.
    Diné Citizens Against Ruining Our Env’t v. Jewell (Diné II), 
    839 F.3d 1276
    , 1279–80
    (10th Cir. 2016) (citations omitted).
    Although the 2003 EIS analyzed oil and gas drilling in the San Juan Basin
    generally, operators wanting to drill new wells in the area must seek and receive approval
    for specific drilling via an application for a permit to drill (APD) submitted to the BLM.
    When the BLM receives an APD, it prepares an environmental assessment (EA)
    examining the environmental impacts of the proposed drilling. The EA must include an
    analysis of the direct, indirect, and cumulative effects of the proposed drilling. See 40
    C.F.R. §§ 1508.7, 1508.8. The EA process results in one of three outcomes: (1) a
    conclusion that the proposed action would result in a significant environmental impact,
    necessitating an EIS, (2) a conclusion that the proposed action would not result in a
    significant environmental impact—a “finding of no significant impact” (FONSI), or (3) a
    conclusion that the proposed action will not go forward. 43 C.F.R. § 46.325. Even if a
    proposed action will have significant effects, the EA may still result in a FONSI if it is
    tiered to a broader environmental analysis that fully analyzed those significant effects.
    
    Id. § 46.140(c).
    Beginning in 2010, the BLM began receiving APDs for drilling in the Mancos
    Shale. Development interest in the area increased quickly, and between early 2012 and
    April 2014, seventy new wells were completed in the Mancos Shale area. In 2014,
    recognizing the potential for additional Mancos Shale development, the BLM had a new
    RFDS prepared to evaluate the Mancos Shale’s potential for oil and gas development.
    5
    The 2014 RFDS estimates that full development of the Mancos Shale would result in
    3,960 new wells.
    The 2014 RFDS predicts that new drilling in the Mancos Shale will be done
    largely, if not entirely, by horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. “A
    horizontally drilled well starts as a vertical or directional well, but then curves and
    becomes horizontal, or nearly so, allowing the wellbore [i.e., drilled hole] to follow
    within a rock stratum for significant distances and thus greatly increase the volume of a
    reservoir opened by the wellbore.” Wyoming v. Zinke, 
    871 F.3d 1133
    , 1137 (10th Cir.
    2017) (alteration in original) (quotations omitted). Hydraulic fracturing is a process
    designed to “maximize the extraction” of oil and gas resources. JA1912. Fluids, usually
    water with chemical additives, “are pumped into a geologic formation at high pressure.”
    
    Id. When the
    pressure “exceeds the rock strength,” it creates or enlarges fractures from
    which oil and gas can flow more freely. 
    Id. After the
    fractures are created, a “propping
    agent (usually sand) is pumped into the fractures to keep them from closing.” 
    Id. As we
    noted previously,
    These new drilling techniques have greatly increased access to oil and gas
    reserves that were not previously targeted for development and have given
    rise to much higher levels of development in the Mancos Shale than the
    BLM previously estimated and accounted for. Moreover, horizontal
    drilling and multi-stage fracturing may have greater environmental impacts
    than vertical drilling and older fracturing techniques.
    Diné 
    II, 839 F.3d at 1283
    .
    Hydraulic fracturing is common in the San Juan Basin and has been used there in
    some form since the 1950s. Horizontal drilling, however, is relatively new. At the time
    6
    the 2003 EIS issued, “[h]orizontal drilling [wa]s possible but not [then] applied in the San
    Juan Basin due to poor cost[-]to[-]benefit ratio.” JA746. The environmental impacts
    considered in the 2003 EIS were therefore based on the impacts associated with vertical
    drilling, not horizontal drilling. But the 2003 EIS noted that “[i]f horizontal drilling
    should prove economically and technically feasible in the future, the next advancement in
    horizontal well technology could be drilling multi-laterals or hydraulic fracturing
    horizontal wells.” 
    Id. Since the
    2003 EIS issued, 3,945 of the 9,942 contemplated vertical wells have
    been drilled in the San Juan Basin. The BLM continues to receive and approve APDs for
    horizontal Mancos Shale wells. Appellants’ initial petition in the district court
    challenged “at least 130” Mancos Shale APDs approved by the BLM. JA2449. Over the
    course of this litigation, Appellants amended their petition three times to account for
    additional granted APDs. Their final petition challenged “at least 351” APDs.2 JA2701.
    In 2015, Appellants filed their first Petition for Review of Agency Action
    (Petition) in district court, challenging the BLM’s issuance of APDs as violative of
    NEPA and NHPA. Appellants named as defendants the Secretary of the United
    States Department of the Interior, BLM, and the Director of BLM (collectively,
    2
    The number of wells at issue on appeal is unclear. Although the district court
    ruled that twenty-eight challenged APDs are not final agency action and four others
    are moot—a ruling Appellants do not appeal—Appellants continue to assert that 362
    APDs (the same number they argued throughout briefing in the district court) are at
    issue. Federal Appellees, for their part, assert that the challenged wells “number[]
    337 as of October 17, 2018,” but cite only to the district court’s opinion in support.
    Fed. Aples. Br. at 18.
    7
    Federal Appellees). A group of oil companies (DJR Energy Holdings, LLC, BP
    America Production Company, American Petroleum Institute, Anschutz Exploration
    Corporation, and Enduring Resources IV, LLC), each of which owns leases or
    drilling permits in the Mancos Shale intervened as defendants (collectively,
    Intervenor Appellees).
    Appellants moved for a preliminary injunction, which the district court denied.
    See Diné Citizens Against Ruining Our Env’t v. Jewell (Diné I), No. CIV 15-0209,
    
    2015 WL 6393843
    (D.N.M. Sept. 16, 2015). This court upheld the denial on appeal.
    Diné II, 
    839 F.3d 1276
    . In district court, Appellants amended their Petition three
    times to add additional challenged APDs. Appellants’ operative Third Supplemented
    Petition alleges, as relevant on appeal: (1) a NEPA violation for improperly tiering
    the EAs to the 2003 EIS; (2) a NEPA violation for failing to prepare an EIS or
    supplement an existing EIS; and (3) a NHPA violation for failing to complete Section
    106 consultation. Appellants sought vacatur of all the challenged APDs and an
    injunction against all “future horizontal drilling or hydraulic fracturing in the Mancos
    Shale” until the BLM complied with NHPA and NEPA. JA2743.
    In April 2017, Appellants sought judgment in the district court. On April 23,
    2018, the district court ruled against Appellants and dismissed their claims with
    prejudice. The district court made the following relevant rulings: (1) Appellants have
    standing to pursue their claims; (2) Appellants do not establish a NEPA violation;
    and (3) Appellants do not establish a NHPA violation.
    Appellants timely appealed, raising two issues. First, they contend that the
    8
    BLM violated NHPA because it “failed to analyze the indirect and cumulative
    impacts of the challenged Mancos Shale drilling permits on cultural sites in the
    Greater Chaco Landscape.” Aplts. Br. at 1 (footnote omitted). Second, they argue
    that the BLM violated NEPA because it “failed to analyze the cumulative impacts of
    the challenged Mancos Shale drilling permits on environmental resources in the
    Greater Chaco Landscape.” 
    Id. at 2.
    Appellants seek vacatur of the challenged
    APDs and a permanent injunction against “any further ground-disturbing activities on
    the challenged APDs until BLM complies with the NHPA and NEPA.” 
    Id. at 51.
    Federal Appellees assert, as they did in the district court, that Appellants lack
    standing to challenge the relevant agency actions.
    II
    The BLM is subject to two statutes relevant on appeal: the National Historic
    Preservation Act and the National Environmental Policy Act. “NHPA[] . . . is a
    procedural statute requiring government agencies to stop, look, and listen before
    proceeding when their action will affect national historical assets.” Coal. of Concerned
    Citizens to Make Art Smart v. Fed. Transit Admin. of U.S. Dep’t of Transp. (Concerned
    Citizens), 
    843 F.3d 886
    , 905 (10th Cir. 2016) (quoting Presidio Historical Ass’n v.
    Presidio Trust, 
    811 F.3d 1154
    , 1169 (9th Cir. 2016)). NHPA was enacted “to foster
    conditions under which our modern society and our historic property can exist in
    productive harmony and fulfill the social, economic, and other requirements of present
    and future generations.” 54 U.S.C. § 300101(1).
    NEPA is also a procedural statute. It requires agencies to “pause before
    9
    committing resources to a project and consider the likely environmental impacts of the
    preferred course of action as well as reasonable alternatives.” N.M. ex rel. Richardson
    v. Bureau of Land Mgmt., 
    565 F.3d 683
    , 703 (10th Cir. 2008). NEPA has twin aims:
    First, it places upon an agency the obligation to consider every significant
    aspect of the environmental impact of a proposed action. Second, it ensures
    that the agency will inform the public that it has indeed considered
    environmental concerns in its decisionmaking process.
    Forest Guardians v. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Serv., 
    611 F.3d 692
    , 711 (10th Cir. 2010)
    (quoting Balt. Gas & Elec. Co. v. Nat. Res. Def. Council, Inc., 462 U.S 87, 97 (1983)).
    Neither NEPA nor NHPA “provide a private right of action,” so we review the
    two decisions as “final agency action[s] under the” APA. Utah Envtl. Cong. v.
    Russell, 
    518 F.3d 817
    , 823 (10th Cir. 2008). We apply the same standard of review as
    the district court: the familiar “arbitrary and capricious” standard. 
    Richardson, 565 F.3d at 704
    –05; 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A). An agency’s decision is arbitrary and capricious if the
    agency:
    (1) entirely failed to consider an important aspect of the problem, (2)
    offered an explanation for its decision that runs counter to the evidence
    before the agency, or is so implausible that it could not be ascribed to a
    difference in view or the product of agency expertise, (3) failed to base
    its decision on consideration of the relevant factors, or (4) made a clear
    error of judgment.
    
    Richardson, 565 F.3d at 704
    (citations and quotations omitted). “A presumption of
    validity attaches to the agency action and the burden of proof rests with [the parties]
    who challenge such action.” Citizens’ Comm. to Save Our Canyons v. Krueger, 
    513 F.3d 1169
    , 1176 (10th Cir. 2008) (quoting Colo. Health Care Ass’n v. Colo. Dep’t of
    Soc. Servs., 
    842 F.2d 1158
    , 1164 (10th Cir. 1988)). Our deference to the agency is
    10
    “especially strong where the challenged decisions involve technical or scientific
    matters within the agency’s area of expertise.” Morris v. U.S. Nuclear Reg.
    Comm’n, 
    598 F.3d 677
    , 691 (10th Cir. 2010) (quoting 
    Russell, 518 F.3d at 824
    ).
    III
    Because standing is jurisdictional, we must first determine whether Appellants
    have standing to bring their claims. The district court concluded that Appellants have
    standing, and we review that determination de novo. S. Utah Wilderness All. v. Palma,
    
    707 F.3d 1143
    , 1152 (10th Cir. 2013).
    When, as here, an organization sues on behalf of its members, the organization has
    standing if:
    (a) its members would otherwise have standing to sue in their own right; (b)
    the interests it seeks to protect are germane to the organization’s purpose;
    and (c) neither the claim asserted nor the relief requested requires the
    participation of individual members in the lawsuit.
    Hunt v. Wash. State Apple Advert. Comm’n, 
    432 U.S. 333
    , 343 (1977). Federal
    Appelles do not argue that the interests Appellants seek to protect are not germane to the
    organizations’ purposes, nor do they argue that the participation of individual members is
    required.3 Our standing inquiry is therefore limited to whether any of Appellants’
    members “have standing to sue in their own right.” 
    Id. We conclude
    that they do.
    To establish standing, a plaintiff must show:
    (1) it has suffered an “injury in fact” that is (a) concrete and particularized
    3
    Regardless, both of these requirements are met. Each organization has the
    goal of protecting the environment in some way. And nothing indicates that
    individual members would need to participate for the court to grant the relief
    Appellants request.
    11
    and (b) actual or imminent, not conjectural or hypothetical; (2) the injury is
    fairly traceable to the challenged action of the defendant; and (3) it is likely,
    as opposed to merely speculative, that the injury will be redressed by a
    favorable decision.
    Friends of the Earth v. Laidlaw Envtl. Servs. (TOC), Inc., 
    528 U.S. 167
    , 180–81 (2013).
    At the summary judgment stage, Appellants must “set forth by affidavit or other evidence
    specific facts, which for purposes of the summary judgment motion will be taken to be
    true.” Lujan v. Defs. of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 561 (1992) (citations and quotations
    omitted).
    A
    The injury-in-fact prong of our standing analysis “breaks down into two parts.”
    Comm. to Save the Rio Hondo v. Lucero, 
    102 F.3d 445
    , 449 (10th Cir. 1996).
    Appellants must show that (1) “in making its decision without following [NEPA’s]
    procedures, the agency created an increased risk of actual, threatened, or imminent
    environmental harm,” and (2) “the increased risk of environmental harm injures [the
    litigant’s] concrete interests by demonstrating either its geographical nexus to, or actual
    use of the site of the agency action.” 
    Id. Appellants have
    satisfied both requirements.
    1
    Under NEPA, “an injury of alleged increased environmental risks due to an
    agency’s uninformed decisionmaking may be the foundation for injury in fact under
    Article III.” 
    Id. Here, the
    allegedly uninformed decisions Appellants challenge are the
    BLM’s approval of hundreds of APDs in the Mancos Shale without considering the
    indirect and cumulative impacts to cultural sites and environmental resources. Aplts. Br.
    12
    at 1–2. Appellants have sufficiently tied the BLM’s challenged decisions to increased
    environmental risks.
    Eisenfeld, a member of San Juan Citizens and WildEarth, asserts that the “Mancos
    Shale APD authorizations . . . impact[] the visual landscape, night sky, solitude and quiet,
    [and] public health and safety.” JA343. Nichols, a member of WildEarth, states that
    “[w]ith the increase in oil and gas development has come light pollution, more truck
    traffic, drilling rigs sticking up from the land, smells, dust, and more industrialization.”
    JA615. He asserts that recently,
    the impacts of Mancos shale oil development have become more visible,
    offensive, and degrading of [his] recreational enjoyment of public lands in
    the area. The new development has brought more drilling rigs, flaring,
    truck traffic, road building, pipeline construction, the construction and
    operation of more tanks and production facilities, and just overall more oil
    and gas industry presence in the area.
    JA607–08. These facts are sufficient to establish “an increased risk of environmental
    harm due to [the BLM’s] alleged uninformed decisionmaking,” and they satisfy the first
    prong of our injury-in-fact analysis. 
    Lucero, 102 F.3d at 451
    .
    Federal Appellees argue that Appellants fail on this prong of the standing analysis
    because the 2003 EIS examined the effects of “drilling 9,942 wells using conventional
    techniques,” and Appellants have not shown that the challenged Mancos Shale APDs
    “will increase the risk of environmental harm in a manner or to a degree not already
    considered.” Fed. Aples. Br. at 26. This argument conflates the standing analysis with
    the merits analysis.
    As discussed, Appellants have submitted affidavits that show an increase in
    13
    environmental harm from drilling activities in the Mancos Shale area; this satisfies the
    first prong of our injury-in-fact analysis. Whether that environmental harm is of a
    manner or to a degree not already considered in the 2003 EIS is a question that goes to
    the merits of Appellants’ NEPA claim. Appellants, of course, need not prove the merits
    of their claim in order to establish standing. See, e.g., Steel Co. v. Citizens for a Better
    Env’t, 
    523 U.S. 83
    , 89 (“It is firmly established in our cases that the absence of a valid
    (as opposed to arguable) cause of action does not implicate subject-matter jurisdiction . . .
    .”).
    2
    Standing “also requires a plaintiff be among the injured.” 
    Lucero, 102 F.3d at 449
    . Therefore, Appellants “must be able to show that a separate injury to [their]
    concrete, particularized interests flows from the agency’s procedural failure.” 
    Id. (citing Lujan,
    504 U.S. at 572). To demonstrate harm to a plaintiff’s concrete interests, the
    plaintiff must “establish either its geographic nexus to, or actual use of the site where the
    agency will take or has taken action such that it may be expected to suffer the
    environmental consequences of the [challenged] action.” 
    Id. (quotations omitted).
    Appellants’ members’ affidavits show a geographic nexus to the affected areas
    sufficient to satisfy the second prong of our injury-in-fact analysis. Eisenfeld states that
    he “regularly visit[s] the greater Chaco region, including areas in and around Counselor,
    Lybrook, and Nageezi,” and that he “intend[s] to go back [to Nageezi] in May and June
    14
    of 2017.”4 JA338. He also states that he has “visited hundreds of well sites in the
    [Greater Chaco] area, and ha[s] frequented lands where many other Mancos Shale wells
    are in view.” JA342.
    Nichols regularly visits the Greater Chaco region “for recreational enjoyment.”
    JA348. He describes visiting Pueblo Pintado, Chaco Culture National Historical Park
    (Chaco Park), Nageezi, and Pueblo Alto. Nichols “intend[s] to continue visiting the
    Greater Chaco region, including [Chaco Park] and its outliers, as well as public lands in
    the region, at least once a year for the foreseeable future,” and had a trip planned for “late
    June 2017.” JA351.
    Kendra Pinto, a member of Diné, lives in Twin Pines, New Mexico, which is
    “located along Highway 550, at the county line of San Juan and Rio Arriba.” JA617.
    Beginning in 2013, she noticed a “major increase in Halliburton trucks along 550, and at
    the intersection of 7900 and 7950, trucks are staging right off the highway and even on
    the county road blocking traffic.” JA618. She “pass[es] through areas that are very
    potent in natural gas odors,” and has “seen the giant pillars of fire for the flaring the sites
    do.” JA619. She states that “[t]he lights staged at well sites can be as bright as stadium
    lights.” 
    Id. Deborah Green,
    a member of NRDC, visits the Chaco Canyon area and Chaco
    Park at least once a year. She states that “[o]il and gas leasing and development in the
    4
    Because “standing is determined at the time the action is brought,” Mink v.
    Suthers, 
    482 F.3d 1244
    , 1253 (10th Cir. 2007), it does not affect our standing
    analysis that these dates are now past.
    15
    Chaco Canyon area/region and [Chaco Park] adversely affect[] the quality of [her] visitor
    experience in the area, and if expanded, would do so even more.” JA630. Along
    Highway 550, on the way to Chaco Park, Green has experienced
    air pollution from gas flares at wells and large amounts of exhaust from the
    oil and gas company trucks and heavy equipment; noise pollution from
    heavy truck traffic; and light pollution when drilling goes on around the
    clock and from gas flares, which are visible from the road for a long
    distance at night.
    
    Id. These affidavits
    establish that the BLM’s challenged actions impair these
    individuals’ actual, concrete interests because the affiants have a geographical nexus to
    and actually use the land in the allegedly affected area.
    Federal Appellees argue that the affidavits are insufficient for two reasons. First,
    they contend that Appellants have “challenged 337 individual agency actions,” each of
    which “gives rise to a distinct claim,” and that Appellants “must establish standing . . . for
    each challenged APD approval.” Fed. Aples. Br. at 23. Second, they argue that
    Appellants “fail to establish a geographical nexus to the challenged agency actions”
    because Appellants’ affidavits all refer generally to the “greater Chaco region” or the
    “Mancos Shale formation.” 
    Id. at 26–27.
    Both arguments fail.
    As Appellants point out, we have previously rejected similar arguments. In
    Palma, the district court held that the plaintiffs did not establish an injury in fact because
    they submitted affidavits that “did not identify specific visits to each of the thirty-nine
    leases at 
    issue.” 707 F.3d at 1155
    . This holding, we concluded, misapplied the law. 
    Id. “Neither our
    court nor the Supreme Court has ever required an environmental plaintiff to
    16
    show that it has traversed each bit of land that will be affected by a challenged agency
    action.” 
    Id. Rather, “[a]
    plaintiff who has repeatedly visited a particular site, has
    imminent plans to do so again, and whose interest are harmed by a defendant’s conduct
    has suffered injury in fact that is concrete and particularized.” 
    Id. at 1156.
    In Palma, an
    organization’s member’s affidavit was “sufficient” when “[h]e specified areas which he
    has visited, averred that these specific areas will be affected by oil and gas drilling, and
    stated his interests will be harmed by such activity.” 
    Id. The affidavits
    Appellants
    submitted in this case meet this standard.5
    Further, maps in the record indicate the geographic proximity of challenged APD
    sites to specific areas referenced in Appellants’ affidavits. Nichols attached to his
    declaration a map of the area around Chaco Park that shows the proximity of existing and
    new wells to Chaco Park and other locations affiants describe. This and other maps in
    the record indicate that challenged well sites are within twenty miles or less of Chaco
    Park, where Nichols and Green recreate; along Highway 550, the road to enter Chaco
    Park; and within several miles of Twin Pines, where Pinto lives, and Nageezi, where
    Eisenfeld and Nichols both recreate.
    Furthermore, Appellants in this case challenge the BLM’s alleged failure to
    5
    Although we dismissed the appeal in Palma for lack of ripeness, Palma still
    informs our injury-in-fact determination. Because we concluded that the Palma
    plaintiffs had established a concrete and particularized injury, we went on to consider
    “not whether SUWA is a proper party to challenge BLM’s decision, but when it can
    do 
    so.” 707 F.3d at 1157
    . But our determination that the Palma plaintiffs’ harm was
    not ripe does not render obsolete our conclusion that their harm was sufficiently
    concrete and imminent. Palma therefore appropriately informs our injury-in-fact
    analysis here.
    17
    evaluate the indirect and cumulative impacts of the APDs, not merely the direct impacts
    of drilling to the area immediately surrounding the wellpads. Although Appellants’
    NEPA claim is in the form of challenges to numerous individual APDs, the allegedly
    affected area extends beyond the boundaries of the well sites and into the greater Chaco
    landscape. Affiants’ descriptions of environmental harms including “air pollution from
    gas flares at wells,” “exhaust from the oil and gas company trucks and heavy equipment,”
    “noise pollution from heavy truck traffic,” and “light pollution” from drilling and “gas
    flares,” JA630, which they experience as they live and recreate in the affected area, are
    sufficient to place Appellants “among the injured.” 
    Lucero, 102 F.3d at 449
    .
    Appellants have shown through their members’ affidavits that some of their
    members have a geographical nexus to, and actually use, land the BLM has exposed to an
    increased risk of environmental harm due to its alleged uninformed decisionmaking.
    Appellants have established an injury in fact for purposes of Article III.
    B
    To establish causation, an environmental plaintiff “need only trace the risk of
    harm to the agency’s alleged failure to follow [NEPA]’s procedures.” 
    Lucero, 102 F.3d at 452
    . A NEPA injury “results not from the agency’s decision, but from the agency’s
    uninformed decisionmaking.” 
    Id. (first emphasis
    added).
    Federal Appellees argue that Appellants have not shown that “the relief sought—
    the vacatur of BLM’s decisions approving these 337 APDs—will remedy their alleged
    injuries.” Fed. Aples. Br. at 29. They assert that Appellants have not established that
    their environmental harms were caused by “the 337 challenged permits rather than . . . the
    18
    approximately 23,000 active oil and gas wells in the San Juan Basin that are not the
    subject of this action.” 
    Id. This argument
    fails.
    “In the context of a [NEPA] claim, the injury is the increased risk of
    environmental harm to concrete interests . . . .” 
    Lucero, 102 F.3d at 451
    (emphasis
    added). In this case, Appellants’ asserted injury is the increased risk of environmental
    harm from the additional wells, and it is undisputed that BLM has authorized more than
    300 additional wells in the Mancos Shale. Appellants have alleged that the BLM did not
    comply with NEPA in granting the challenged APDs, and that its alleged failure resulted
    in “the agency’s uninformed decisionmaking” as to these additional wells. 
    Id. at 452.
    This is sufficient to establish causation.
    C
    Appellants must also establish that it is “likely, as opposed to merely speculative,
    that the injury will be redressed by a favorable decision.” 
    Lujan, 504 U.S. at 561
    (quotations omitted). Under NEPA, “a plaintiff need not establish that the ultimate
    agency decision would change upon [NEPA] compliance. Rather, the [Plaintiff must
    only show] that its injury would be redressed by a favorable decision requiring”
    compliance with NEPA procedures. 
    Lucero, 102 F.2d at 452
    (quotations and citations
    omitted). Here, Appellants challenge the BLM’s decision to grant APDs without
    conducting the requisite NEPA analysis. A favorable decision ordering compliance with
    NEPA’s procedures would “avert the possibility that the [BLM] may have overlooked
    significant environmental consequences of its actions,” thereby redressing Appellants’
    alleged harms. 
    Id. Appellants have
    established redressability.
    19
    Because individual members of Appellants’ organizations have suffered a concrete
    and particularized injury in fact that is fairly traceable to the BLM’s alleged failure to
    comply with NEPA and could be redressed by a favorable decision, we conclude that
    Appellants have standing.6
    IV
    Before analyzing the merits of Appellants’ arguments, we first note the dramatic
    insufficiency of the record. Although Appellants challenge more than 300 individual
    agency actions, they have provided us with the complete record of the BLM’s
    decisionmaking process for only a few of the challenged actions. We are therefore
    unable to evaluate the sufficiency of the BLM’s NHPA and NEPA analyses for the vast
    majority of the challenged actions. See 10th Cir. R. 10.4(A) (“Counsel must designate a
    record on appeal . . . that is sufficient for considering and deciding the appellate issues.”);
    
    id. at 10.4(B)
    (“When the party asserting an issue fails to provide a record or appendix
    sufficient for considering that issue, the court may decline to consider it.”).
    As to NHPA, the record indicates that the BLM considered impacts on historic
    properties in at least three documents for each APD: (1) a Cultural Resource Survey
    (CRS), (2) a Record of Review, and (3) a site-specific EA. Therefore, in order to
    6
    The harms Appellants allege are the same for their NHPA claims (an
    increased risk of harm to Chaco Park and the surrounding area), and NHPA is also a
    procedural statute, so the standing analysis for NHPA is the same as for NEPA in this
    case. Appellants have established standing under NHPA because they allege a
    concrete and particularized injury in fact that is fairly traceable to the BLM’s alleged
    failure to comply with NHPA and could be redressed by a favorable decision.
    20
    evaluate the sufficiency of the BLM’s NHPA analysis, we would need the complete EA,
    complete CRS, and complete Record of Review for each challenged APD. The record,
    however, contains portions of the BLM’s NHPA analysis for only seventeen different
    sets of APDs.7 Further, the vast majority of the NHPA analyses in the record are only
    several-page excerpts, not the entire analysis. The record contains the complete EA,
    CRS, and Record of Review for only one set of challenged APDs: Kimbeto Wash Unit
    Wells 787H, 789H, and 791H.
    As to NEPA, the record indicates that the BLM’s NEPA analysis was included in
    at least each site-specific EA and the 2003 EIS (to which each of the site-specific EAs
    tiered). Therefore, in order to evaluate the sufficiency of the BLM’s NEPA analyses, we
    would need the complete 2003 EIS and the complete EA for each challenged APD. The
    record, however, only includes portions of twenty-seven EAs. And, as with the NHPA
    analyses, the vast majority of the EAs in the record are several-page excerpts, not the
    complete EA. From our count, the record contains only six complete EAs: EA 2012-
    0268, EA 2014-0272, EA 2015-0036, EA 2015-0066, EA 2016-0029, and EA 2016-
    0200/2016-0076. We are therefore able to analyze whether the BLM violated NEPA
    only as to those six EAs.
    “[O]ur cases addressing deficiencies in the appendix submitted by an appellant
    define a guiding principle . . . .” Lincoln v. BNSF Ry. Co., 
    900 F.3d 1166
    , 1190 (10th
    7
    It appears that many CRSs and Records of Review analyze the impacts on
    historic properties for more than one APD. And it appears that most, if not all, EAs
    analyze the impacts of more than one APD. Regardless, the record on appeal
    contains far fewer than all of the documents containing the BLM’s NHPA analyses.
    21
    Cir. 2018). Even when an appendix is deficient, if “the materials provided by the
    appellant permit us to reach a firm and definite conclusion regarding the merits of an
    individual argument or claim within the appeal,” we often will address the argument or
    claim, although our rules do not require us to do so. 
    Id. But if
    “we are forced to venture
    a guess as to the merits of an argument or claim, even ‘an informed guess,’ we will
    summarily affirm the district court’s judgment.” 
    Id. (collecting cases).
    Applying these principles, we conduct our NHPA and NEPA reviews only as to
    those challenged actions for which we have the BLM’s complete analysis. For NHPA,
    we evaluate the sufficiency of the BLM’s analysis for Kimbeto Wash Unit Wells 787H,
    789H, and 791H. For NEPA, we evaluate the sufficiency of the BLM’s analysis for: (1)
    EA 2012-0268, (2) EA 2014-0272, (3) EA 2015-0036, (4) EA 2015-0066, (5) EA 2016-
    0029, and (6) EA 2016-0200/2016-0076.8 As to all other challenged agency actions, the
    record “is insufficient to permit assessment of [Appellants’] claim of error,” and we
    affirm the district court. Tilton v. Capital Cities/ABC, Inc., 
    115 F.3d 1471
    , 1474 (10th
    Cir. 1997).
    8
    We note that even as to these EAs, it is possible that the record does not
    contain the BLM’s entire NEPA analysis. See, e.g., JA2143 (stating “Appendix D.
    Surface Reclamation Plan,” but not containing any surface reclamation plan).
    However, because we do not identify—and the parties do not point to—any missing
    portion of these EAs relevant to the challenges Appellants raise on appeal, we
    conclude that the record is sufficient for us to evaluate Appellants’ NEPA claims as
    to these EAs.
    22
    V
    Appellants contend that the BLM violated NHPA in three ways. First, they assert
    that the BLM arbitrarily defined an area of potential effects (APE) for each APD in a way
    that excluded cultural sites that might be indirectly affected by Mancos Shale
    development. This argument is premised on Appellants’ assertion that the 2014 Protocol
    required the BLM to set a separate APE for indirect effects, which the BLM did not do.
    Second, Appellants argue that the BLM did not consider the cumulative effects of
    Mancos Shale development on relevant cultural and historic properties. Finally,
    Appellants contend that the BLM failed to consult with the State Historic Preservation
    Office (SHPO) as required by the 2014 Protocol. Each of these arguments fail.
    A
    Section 106 of NHPA sets forth specific processes federal agencies must perform
    to comply with NHPA. See 36 C.F.R. § 800.1(a). In general, the Section 106 process
    involves four steps. First, the agency defines the APE. 36 C.F.R. § 800.4(a). The APE
    is “the geographic area or areas within which an undertaking may directly or indirectly
    cause alterations in the character or use of historic properties, if any such properties
    exist.” 
    Id. § 800.16(d).
    “Establishing an [APE] requires a high level of agency expertise,
    and as such, the agency’s determination is due a substantial amount of discretion.”
    Valley Cmty. Pres. Comm’n v. Mineta, 
    373 F.3d 1078
    , 1092 (10th Cir. 2004).
    After defining the APE, the agency identifies historic properties within the APE.
    36 C.F.R. § 800.4(b). A historic property is “any prehistoric or historic district, site,
    building, structure, or object included on, or eligible for inclusion on” the National
    23
    Register of Historic Places (NRHP). 54 U.S.C. § 300308. If the agency determines that
    no historic properties are present within the APE, it reports that finding and the NHPA
    process ends. 36 C.F.R. § 800.4(d)(1).
    If historic properties are present within the APE, the agency determines whether
    the proposed undertaking will adversely affect those properties. 
    Id. § 800.5.
    An adverse
    effect exists “when an undertaking may alter, directly or indirectly, any of the
    characteristics of a historic property that qualify the property for inclusion in the [NRHP]
    in a manner that would diminish the integrity of the property’s location, design, setting,
    materials, workmanship, feeling, or association.” 
    Id. § 800.5(a)(1).
    Adverse effects
    include “reasonably foreseeable effects caused by the undertaking that may occur later in
    time, be farther removed in distance or be cumulative.” 
    Id. They also
    include the
    “[i]ntroduction of visual, atmospheric[,] or audible elements that diminish the integrity of
    the property’s significant historic features.” 
    Id. § 800.5(a)(2)(v).
    If the agency determines that the undertaking may cause an adverse effect on the
    historic properties within the APE, it must “develop and evaluate alternatives or
    modifications to the undertaking that could avoid, minimize, or mitigate adverse effects
    on historic properties.” 
    Id. § 800.6(a).
    The Section 106 process does not demand a
    particular result, however, because “Section 106 is essentially a procedural statute and
    does not impose a substantive mandate” on the agencies governed by it. Valley 
    Cmty., 373 F.3d at 1085
    .
    Section 106 authorizes agencies to enter into a “programmatic agreement to
    govern the implementation of a particular program or the resolution of adverse effects
    24
    from certain complex project situations or multiple undertakings.” 36 C.F.R.
    § 800.14(b). When a governing programmatic agreement is in place, compliance with the
    procedures in that agreement satisfies the agency’s NHPA Section 106 responsibilities
    for all covered undertakings. 
    Id. § 800.14(b)(2)(iii).
    The parties agree that two programmatic agreements governed the BLM’s NHPA
    analyses of the APDs in this case: one agreement that went into effect in 2004 (the 2004
    Protocol), and one that went into effect in 2014 (the 2014 Protocol). Therefore, we must
    resolve whether Appellants have shown that the BLM violated the requirements of the
    2014 Protocol9 as to the single challenged APD properly before us. Although the
    compliance requirements for the 2014 Protocol are somewhat different than Section
    106’s requirements, the basic NHPA process is the same.
    The 2014 Protocol states generally that, “[i]n defining the APE, the BLM will
    consider potential direct, indirect, and cumulative effects to historic properties and their
    associated settings when setting is an important aspect of integrity, as applicable.”
    JA1562. Relevant here, the 2014 Protocol states that “[t]he BLM will follow the
    established guidance on standard direct APEs for certain types of projects in Appendix
    9
    Although Appellants acknowledge the existence and applicability of the 2004
    Protocol, they make no NHPA arguments under the 2004 Protocol. Federal
    Appellees assert (without citation) that “[a]pproximately 221 of the challenged
    drilling permits were approved at the time the 2004 Protocol was operative, and
    approximately 163 permits fell under the 2014 Protocol.” Fed. Aples. Br. at 12. All
    of Appellants’ NHPA arguments, however, rely on the 2014 Protocol. Because we
    conclude that Appellants’ NHPA challenge fails for other reasons, we need not
    address the effect Appellants’ failure to argue that the BLM violated the 2004
    Protocol might otherwise have on Appellants’ NHPA challenges.
    25
    B.” 
    Id. (italics omitted).
    Appendix B sets a “standard APE” for well pads of “the well
    pad and construction zone plus 100[] [feet] on each side from the edge of the construction
    zone.” JA1594. The 2014 Protocol acknowledges that “[i]n certain circumstances, even
    though an undertaking may have a standard APE . . . , the Field Manager, at the
    recommendation of the cultural resource specialist, may have justification to require a
    larger APE.” 
    Id. B Appellants
    argue that the BLM “failed to account for indirect impacts to cultural
    sites, as required by the NHPA and the Protocol.” Aplts. Br. at 30. According to
    Appellants, “the Protocol requires BLM to consider a separate APE for indirect effects
    where ‘[t]he introduction of physical, visual, or audible elements has the potential to
    affect the historic setting or use’ of cultural sites ‘where setting is an important aspect of
    integrity.’” 
    Id. at 31
    (quoting JA1562). Appellants’ argument fails because the 2014
    Protocol merely allows for, it does not require, a separate indirect-effects APE.
    The 2014 Protocol acknowledges that “[t]he introduction of physical, visual,
    audible, or atmospheric elements has the potential to affect the historic setting or use of
    historic properties,” and requires the BLM to “take this into account in defining the limits
    of an APE for indirect effects.” JA1562 (emphasis added). Under the 2014 Protocol,
    “[t]he indirect APE shall include known or suspected historic properties and their
    associated settings where setting is an important aspect of integrity.” 
    Id. The 2014
    Protocol continues: “Identification efforts outside of the APE for direct effects shall be at
    the approval of the BLM field manager, taking into account the recommendations of the
    26
    BLM cultural resource specialist and the SHPO.” 
    Id. (emphasis added).
    In other words,
    the BLM need not set—or even consider—a separate indirect-effects APE when
    “physical, visual, audible, or atmospheric elements ha[ve] the potential to affect the
    historic setting or use of historic properties,” as Appellants argue. JA1562. Rather, the
    2014 Protocol only requires that the BLM take indirect effects into account as it exercises
    its substantial discretion in setting the APE. The 2014 Protocol therefore contains a
    default presumption that the direct and indirect APE will be the same and, to the extent
    the BLM will attempt to identify historic properties outside the direct-effects APE, those
    identification efforts will be at the approval of the BLM field manager.
    Moreover, the CRS, the Record of Review, and the EA for the Kimbeto Wash
    Unit wells indicate that the BLM looked to areas far outside the standard direct-effects
    APE to identify cultural properties. The EA includes a fulsome discussion of the
    potential for indirect impacts from the proposed project, including an analysis of visual
    resources. The EA notes that the proposed action is at least 8.5 miles “from the boundary
    of [Chaco Park].” 
    Id. It acknowledges
    that “small portions of the pipeline fall within”
    two National Park Service designated Key Observation Points, but concludes that
    “[g]iven [the] distance ([over] 11.5 miles) and low profile[,] the pipeline will not be
    visible.” JA1949. The EA notes that the project’s “well pad is within a mile of a few
    scattered residences,” but concludes that it is “unlikely that the well pad will be visible
    from these residences due to area topography.” JA1950. It also states that the “well pad
    will not visible from any designated recreation areas.” 
    Id. The EA
    also addresses the project’s potential impact on night skies, noting that
    27
    “[l]ight sources associated with drilling an oil and gas well include a light plant or
    generator, a light on top of the rig, vehicle traffic, and flaring.” JA1951.
    The necessity for flaring and the duration of flaring varies widely from well
    to well and is difficult to predict. With the exception of a few yearly
    events, visitors are not allowed access to the canyon rim where the
    proposed action may be seen after sunset, minimizing the chance that
    visitors would see the direct light. While these lights could reduce the
    general darkness of the night sky as seen from [Chaco Park], it is likely the
    impact would be imperceptible.
    
    Id. Further, the
    EA notes that any potential light impacts “would be short-term.” 
    Id. The CRS
    and Record of Review also indicate that the BLM looked for historic
    sites in an area that extended far beyond the direct-effects APE. The CRS notes that a
    record search was conducted and “[n]o sites listed on the State Register of Cultural
    Properties or the [NRHP we]re located within a 1 mile [sic] of the project area.” JA2173
    (emphasis added). The BLM also conducted pedestrian surveys of a 108.01-acre area,
    although the CRS indicates only 25.76 acres in the APE. [Id.] During the pedestrian
    surveys, “[w]hen cultural material was encountered, it was pin flagged and the
    archaeologists began an intensive search of the area to locate other material.” JA2175.
    After eight “Fieldwork Dates,” forty-six “Survey Person Hours” and thirty-nine
    “Recording Person Hours,” the BLM’s NHPA review identified four newly recorded
    cultural sites, one previously recorded site, and twelve isolated occurrences of cultural
    material. 
    Id. The BLM
    ultimately determined that three of the five sites were ineligible
    for listing on the NRHP, and two were eligible but avoided. The BLM therefore
    recommended that the project go forward with mitigation requirements, including
    employee education, temporary barriers, and archaeological site monitoring.
    28
    The CRS, Record of Review, and EA for the Kimbeto Wash Unit wells indicate
    that the BLM attempted to identify historic properties in an area far outside the standard
    direct-effects APE for well pads, and that the BLM considered the proposed drilling’s
    possible visual impacts, including its impact on night skies. Given this analysis,
    especially considering that it far exceeded the analysis required by the 2014 Protocol,
    Appellants have failed to establish that the BLM violated NHPA by not adequately
    considering the indirect effects of the Kimbeto Wash Unit wells.10
    C
    Appellants also argue that the BLM violated NHPA because it “failed to analyze
    the cumulative effects of developing hundreds of new APDs across this culturally
    significant landscape.” Aplts. Br. at 38. Appellants’ cumulative-effects argument fails
    because Appellants identify no historic properties within the APE the BLM set.
    In support of their cumulative-effects argument, Appellants cite to 36 C.F.R.
    10
    Despite the BLM’s extensive NHPA analysis for the Kimbeto Wash Unit
    wells, parts of the record indicate that the BLM may not have considered the
    cumulative and indirect impacts of other challenged APDs so thoroughly. For
    example, in discussing possible cumulative impacts, some EAs state simply that
    “[t]here would be no negative cumulative impact on cultural resources, as significant
    cultural sites would be avoided.” JA1154; accord JA1267 (same); JA1333 (same).
    Depending on the circumstances—and whether this were indeed the only cumulative
    impacts analysis the BLM completed—this cursory analysis could be insufficient.
    However, other parts of the record contain more thorough indirect- and
    cumulative-effects analyses. Indeed, the apparent difference in the substance of the
    BLM’s NHPA analyses for different APDs highlights the need to examine each of the
    BLM’s challenged actions individually and with reference to a complete record of the
    BLM’s NHPA analysis. And, of course, we cannot determine that the BLM’s
    analysis was insufficient for one APD by examining the analysis the BLM conducted
    for a different APD.
    29
    § 800.5(a)(1), which states that “[a]dverse effects may include reasonably foreseeable
    effects caused by the undertaking that may occur later in time, be farther removed in
    distance or be cumulative.” This regulation, however, addresses the BLM’s application
    of “the criteria of adverse effect to historic properties within the [APE].” 36 C.F.R.
    § 800.5(a) (emphasis added). In other words, the cited language simply means that an
    undertaking can have adverse effects on historical properties within the APE, even if the
    undertaking only adversely affects the properties through “reasonably foreseeable effects
    caused by the undertaking that may . . . be cumulative.” 
    Id. § 800.5(a)(1).
    Appellants, however, argue that the BLM abused its discretion by failing to
    analyze the cumulative adverse effects horizontal Mancos Shale wells might have “on the
    integrity of the historic setting for any number of cultural sites, [Chaco] Park, and the
    Greater Chaco Landscape.” Aplts. Br. at 37. This argument ignores that § 800.5(a)(1)
    applies to the BLM’s assessment of adverse effects on “historic properties within the
    [APE].” 36 C.F.R. § 800.5(a) (emphasis added). And the record indicates that the APE
    for the Kimbeto Wash Unit wells did not encompass the “cultural sites, [Chaco] Park, and
    the Greater Chaco Landscape,” Aplts. Br. at 37, which Appellants argue would be
    negatively impacted by these cumulative effects.11
    In sum, Appellants’ cumulative-effects argument is premised on an APE different
    11
    Indeed, Appellants criticize this aspect of the BLM’s NHPA process,
    arguing that the BLM’s APE definition “resulted in the agency excluding from its
    analysis all cultural sites likely to be adversely affected by noise, light, and air
    pollution.” Aplts. Br. at 30.
    30
    from the one the BLM defined. Appellants’ argument therefore fails.
    D
    Appellants also argue that the BLM was required to consult with the SHPO12
    because defining APEs for the challenged APDs was “complicated or controversial.”
    Aplts. Br. at 35. In support, Appellants cite the 2014 Protocol’s examples of
    “complicated or controversial” projects, contending that the APDs at issue qualify
    because “‘multiple applicants’ [and] ‘multiple Indian tribes’ are involved.” 
    Id. (quoting JA1562).
    Appellants’ SHPO consultation argument fails.
    The 2014 Protocol “specifies the manner in which the BLM works with SHPO,”
    and “establishes a streamlined consultation process for most BLM undertakings.”
    JA1552. It provides that “[t]he BLM will consult with SHPO on undertakings for which
    a standard APE . . . has not been developed.” JA1562. Appendix B indicates that if the
    BLM utilizes a standard APE for an undertaking, the “BLM and SHPO have consulted”
    as to that APE. JA1594 (emphasis added). The 2014 Protocol also states that the BLM
    will consult with the SHPO “where the APE is complicated or controversial,” and gives
    examples of situations in which defining the APE may be complicated or controversial:
    12
    Amici All Pueblo Council of Governors and the National Trust for Historic
    Preservation in the United States argue that the BLM did not adequately consult with
    Native American tribes before approving the APDs. Appellants did not make this
    argument in district court, and we decline to consider it for the first time on appeal.
    McDonald v. Kinder-Morgan, Inc., 
    287 F.3d 992
    , 999 (10th Cir. 2002) (“[A]bsent
    extraordinary circumstances, we will not consider arguments raised for the first time
    on appeal.”).
    31
    “undertakings involving multiple agencies, multiple states, multiple applicants, and/or
    multiple Indian tribes.” JA1562.
    The 2014 Protocol therefore establishes a default presumption that the BLM need
    not consult with the SHPO “on undertakings for which a standard APE” exists, such as
    the undertakings at issue in this case. JA1562. And in this case, the applicability of a
    standard APE also undermines a conclusion that the APE is complicated or controversial.
    Rather, the existence of a standard APE indicates that the BLM and the SHPO anticipated
    that the BLM would often have to define an APE for activities related to oil and gas
    drilling, such as well pads, pipelines, and roads. And, seeking to “streamline the
    consultation process” for these common undertakings, the BLM and the SHPO
    determined that a standard APE for these activities would suffice in most circumstances,
    and BLM-SHPO consultation in defining the specific APE would be unnecessary.
    JA1552; accord JA1562. We therefore reject Appellants’ argument that the BLM abused
    its discretion by not consulting with the SHPO.
    Appellants fail to carry their burden of establishing that the BLM violated NHPA.
    The BLM’s decision is entitled to a presumption of regularity, and it finds support in the
    record. Accordingly, we affirm the district court’s dismissal of Appellants’ NHPA claim.
    VI
    Appellants’ NEPA argument is as follows: the environmental impacts of the
    horizontal Mancos Shale wells are both (1) different in kind from and (2) greater in
    magnitude than those considered in the 2003 EIS. Because of this, the 2003 EIS did not
    fully analyze the environmental impacts associated with horizontal Mancos Shale wells,
    32
    so the BLM was not authorized to tier the EAs to the 2003 EIS, and the FONSIs the BLM
    issued were arbitrary and capricious. We conclude that, as to five EAs, Appellants have
    demonstrated that the BLM needed to—but did not—consider the cumulative impacts of
    water resources associated with the 3,960 reasonably foreseeable horizontal Mancos
    Shale wells. The BLM’s issuance of FONSIs and approval of APDs associated with
    these EAs was therefore arbitrary and capricious and violated NEPA.
    A
    NEPA “requires federal agencies . . . to analyze environmental consequences
    before initiating actions that potentially affect the environment.” Utah Env’t Cong. v.
    Bosworth, 
    443 F.3d 732
    , 735–36 (10th Cir. 2006). To comply with NEPA, agencies
    must prepare a detailed statement of the environmental impact of any “major Federal
    action[] significantly affecting the quality of the human environment.” 42 U.S.C.
    § 4332(2)(C).
    In conducting its NEPA analysis, a federal agency must prepare, as relevant here,
    either “(1) an environmental impact statement [(EIS)], [or] (2) an environmental
    assessment [(EA)].” 
    Bosworth, 443 F.3d at 736
    . An EIS “is required if a proposed
    action will ‘significantly affect[] the quality of the human environment.’” 
    Id. (alteration in
    original) (quoting 42 U.S.C. § 4332(C)). “If an agency is uncertain whether the
    proposed action will significantly affect the environment, it may prepare a considerably
    less detailed [EA].” 
    Id. Although less
    detailed than an EIS, the EA must still “include brief discussions of
    the need for the proposal, of alternatives . . . , [and] of the environmental impacts of the
    33
    proposed action and alternatives.” 40 C.F.R. § 1508.9(b). Among the environmental
    impacts the EA must evaluate are “the cumulative impacts of a project.” WildEarth
    Guardians v. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Serv., 
    784 F.3d 677
    , 690 (10th Cir. 2015) (quoting
    Davis v. Mineta, 
    302 F.3d 1104
    , 1125 (10th Cir. 2002) abrogated on other grounds by
    Diné Citizens Against Ruining Our Env’t v. Jewell, 
    839 F.3d 1276
    (10th Cir. 2016)).
    Cumulative impacts are “the impact on the environment which results from the
    incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present, and reasonably
    foreseeable future actions.” 40 C.F.R. § 1508.7. Cumulative impacts can result from
    “individually minor but collectively significant actions taking place over a long period of
    time.” 
    Id. If, after
    considering the necessary factors, the agency concludes the action is
    unlikely to have a significant environmental impact, it may issue a finding of no
    significant impact (FONSI) and proceed with the action. 40 C.F.R. § 1508.13. If the
    agency reaches the opposite conclusion, before proceeding with the action, it must
    prepare an environmental impact statement to thoroughly analyze the action’s predicted
    environmental impacts, including its direct, indirect, and cumulative impacts. 42 U.S.C.
    § 4332(2)(C); 40 C.F.R. §§ 1508.11, 1508.25. However, even when a proposed action
    has “significant effects,” the BLM may tier13 an EA to an existing EIS—and thereby
    13
    “Tiering refers to the coverage of general matters in broader environmental
    impact statements . . . with subsequent narrower statements or environmental
    analyses . . . incorporating by reference the general discussions and concentrating
    solely on the issues specific to the statement subsequently prepared.” 40 C.F.R.
    § 1508.28.
    34
    reach a FONSI—if the EIS to which it tiers “fully analyzed those significant effects.” 43
    C.F.R. § 46.140(c). But if the “relevant analysis in the [EIS] is not sufficiently
    comprehensive or adequate to support further decisions, the [EA] must explain this and
    provide any necessary analysis.” 
    Id. § 46.140(b).
    “The role of a federal court under NEPA is to review the EIS, [or] EA, . . . as the
    case may be, and ‘simply . . . ensure that the agency has adequately considered and
    disclosed the environmental impact of its actions.” Concerned 
    Citizens, 843 F.3d at 902
    (third alteration in original) (quoting Wyoming v. U.S. Dep’t of Agric., 
    661 F.3d 1209
    ,
    1256–57 (10th Cir. 2011)). In conducting this review, we apply a “rule of reason
    standard” to determine whether claimed NEPA violations “are merely flyspecks, or are
    significant enough to defeat the goals of informed decision making and informed public
    comment.” Utahns for Better Transp. v. U.S. Dep’t of Transp., 
    305 F.3d 1152
    , 1163
    (10th Cir. 2002).
    B
    Appellants first argue that the challenged APDs cause environmental impacts
    qualitatively different from those considered in the 2003 EIS because the APDs authorize
    drilling in the southern portion of the Mancos Shale, while the 2003 EIS “only evaluated
    development in the northern portion.” Aplts. Br. at 42. Appellants’ argument fails
    because the 2003 EIS evaluated the effects of drilling throughout the entire San Juan
    Basin—an area that includes the location of the challenged APDs.
    The 2003 EIS was developed to “analyze[] the environmental impacts of oil and
    gas leasing and development in the San Juan Basin in New Mexico.” JA767. The
    35
    “planning area” addressed in the 2003 EIS “includes all of San Juan County, most of
    McKinley County, western Rio Arriba County, and northwestern Sandoval County.”
    JA768. All challenged APDs are within this area.
    The 2003 EIS denoted the northeastern portion of the planning area as a “high
    development area” for oil and gas production, but that area was so identified because
    “more than 99 percent of the federal oil and gas resources [we]re currently leased” in that
    area. JA778. Nothing in the 2003 EIS indicates that the BLM analyzed the
    environmental impacts of drilling on only the high development area. Indeed, the 2003
    EIS’s chapter on the affected environment contains a lengthy discussion of the cultural
    resources present in the Chaco Canyon. The record, therefore, does not support
    Appellants’ assertion that the challenged APDs are in a geographic area not considered
    by the 2003 EIS.
    C
    Appellants also argue that the BLM has never fully analyzed the cumulative
    environmental impacts of drilling 3,960 horizontal wells in the Mancos Shale because
    those impacts exceed the environmental impacts evaluated in the 2003 EIS in two
    specific ways: air pollution and water use. As to air pollution, we conclude that
    Appellants have not provided us with a record from which we can assess the BLM’s
    NEPA analysis. As to water use, we conclude that Appellants have shown that the BLM
    never considered the cumulative impact of the water use associated with the 3,960
    reasonably foreseeable horizontal Mancos Shale wells for five specific EAs. We
    therefore reverse the district court’s dismissal of Appellants’ NEPA claims as to EAs
    36
    2014-0272, 2015-0036, 2015-0066, 2016-0029, and 2016-0200/2016-0076.14
    1
    Appellants’ cumulative-impacts argument relies on one assumption the parties
    dispute: that the BLM’s NEPA analysis must consider the impacts associated with all
    3,960 wells the 2014 RFDS identified as possible if full-field Mancos Shale
    development occurs. We conclude that the 2014 RFDS made it reasonably
    foreseeable that 3,960 horizontal Mancos Shale wells would be drilled, and NEPA
    therefore required the BLM to consider the cumulative impacts of those wells in the
    EAs it conducted for subsequent horizontal Mancos Shale well APDs.
    The 2014 RFDS “collect[ed] and analyze[d] geological and engineering
    evidence[] . . . to determine the potential subsurface development of the Gallup/Mancos
    play.” JA1665. Based on this analysis, it estimated that full development of the Mancos
    Shale would result in 3,960 new wells. And, although it predicted “a five[-]year delay in
    significant activity” in the Mancos Shale area “due to unfavorable economics,” it also
    predicted that well activity would “rapidly increase” once the economics became more
    favorable. JA1662.
    The BLM itself has relied on RFDSs to define the scope of “reasonably
    14
    EA 2012-0268 was completed in June 2012, more than two years before the
    2014 RFDS issued. Appellants’ cumulative-impacts argument relies entirely on the
    2014 RFDS’s prediction of 3,960 horizontal Mancos Shale wells. Because
    Appellants provide no reason other than the 2014 RFDS that the BLM’s NEPA
    analysis should have included the environmental impacts from 3,960 horizontal
    Mancos Shale wells, Appellants do not establish that the BLM violated NEPA as to
    EA 2012-0268.
    37
    foreseeable” actions for the purposes of its cumulative-impacts analyses. For example,
    two of the EAs before us cite to the 2014 RFDS in their discussions of cumulative
    impacts. In describing the methodology used to analyze cumulative impacts, EA 2016-
    0029 and EA 2016-0200/2016-0076 discuss oil and gas development predicted in the
    2014 RFDS, noting that the 2014 RFDS
    identified high, moderate, and low potential regions for oil development of
    the Mancos-Gallup Formation. Within the high potential region, full
    development would include 5 wells per section, resulting in 1,600
    completions. Within the moderate potential region, full development
    would include one well per section, resulting in 330 completions. Within
    the low potential region, full development would include one well per
    township, resulting in 30 well completions. Additionally, the [2014 RFDS]
    predicted 2,000 gas wells could be development [sic] in the northeastern
    corner of the [BLM’s Farmington Field Office].
    JA1926; JA2096. The BLM also relied on the 2001 RFDS for projected drilling amounts
    in the 2003 EIS. The 2003 EIS states that the 2001 RFDS “form[ed] the basis for
    projected oil and gas development in the planning area over the next 20 years.” JA769–
    70. Especially in light of the BLM’s past reliance on the drilling projected in RFDSs, we
    conclude that once the 2014 RFDS issued, the 3,960 horizontal Mancos Shale wells
    predicted in that document were “reasonably foreseeable future actions.” 40 C.F.R.
    § 1508.7; accord Sierra Club v. Marsh, 
    976 F.2d 763
    , 767 (1st Cir. 1992) (“[A]s in other
    legal contexts, the terms ‘likely’ and ‘foreseeable,’ as applied to a type of environmental
    impact, are properly interpreted as meaning that the impact is sufficiently likely to occur
    that a person of ordinary prudence would take it into account in reaching a decision.”).
    The BLM therefore needed to consider the cumulative environmental impacts associated
    with the reasonably foreseeable 3,960 horizontal Mancos Shale wells when it conducted
    38
    EAs for the challenged APDs.
    Intervenor Appellees’ arguments do not persuade us otherwise. First, we of
    course acknowledge that “full-field [Mancos Shale] development is not at issue in
    this case.” Int. Aples. Br. at 38. But that does not excuse the BLM from NEPA’s
    requirement that it “take a ‘hard look’ at the environmental consequences before”
    approving the challenged APDs. Balt. Gas & Elec. 
    Co., 462 U.S. at 97
    . And, in this
    case, that involved considering the cumulative impacts of the 3,960 reasonably
    foreseeable horizontal Mancos Shale wells. See 40 C.F.R. §§ 1508.9(b), 1508.7.
    Second, we reject Intervenor Appellees’ argument that the BLM did not need
    to consider the cumulative impact of the predicted 3,960 wells because “no operator
    has proposed to drill” all of those wells. Int. Aples. Br. at 40. Once the 2014 RFDS
    issued, it became reasonably foreseeable to the BLM that the projected wells would
    be drilled, so the BLM needed to consider the cumulative impact of all those wells,
    even if the wells were not going to be drilled imminently. 40 C.F.R. § 1508.7
    (“Cumulative impacts can result from individually minor but collectively significant
    actions taking place over a period of time.” (emphasis added)).
    Finally, we reject Intervenor Appellees’ argument that our conclusion here would
    “automatically foreclose authorization of all individual activities in the [planning] area”
    once the BLM initiates an RMP amendment process. Int. Aples. Br. at 42. Rather, our
    decision forecloses only those activities with environmental impacts—direct, indirect, or
    cumulative—that have not been considered in either a site-specific EA or a broader
    NEPA document to which the EA tiers. But that is the purpose of NEPA: to “require[]
    39
    federal agencies . . . to analyze environmental consequences before initiating actions that
    potentially affect the environment.” 
    Bosworth, 443 F.3d at 735
    –36.
    We conclude that the 3,960 horizontal Mancos Shale wells predicted in the 2014
    RFDS were reasonably foreseeable after the 2014 RFDS issued. The BLM therefore had
    to consider the cumulative impacts of all 3,960 wells when it conducted its site-specific
    EAs.
    2
    Appellants argue that the air pollution caused by the horizontal Mancos Shale
    wells will exceed the air pollution amounts considered in the 2003 EIS. In support,
    Appellants point to a table that purports to “illustrate the total combined impacts of past,
    present, and reasonably foreseeable future development.” Aplts. Br. at 43. Although the
    numbers in Appellants’ table indicate that horizontal wells have a much greater
    environmental impact than do vertical wells, the numbers Appellants provide for the
    environmental impacts of vertical wells are not supported by the record. More
    importantly, the record does not contain the BLM’s complete air pollution analysis, so we
    are unable to fully evaluate the air pollution argument Appellants make.
    Appellants’ air pollution argument relies on the following assumptions:15
    Well Type       Construction Time          Nox           CO          VOC           PM10
    (tpy)         (tpy)        (tpy)         (tpy)
    Vertical               9 days             2.30          0.63         0.20          0.92
    15
    NOx is nitrous oxide; CO is carbon monoxide; VOC is volatile organic
    compound; and PM10 is particulate matter at 10 microns. Each is a form of air
    pollution.
    40
    Horizontal            25 days              6.13         1.64          0.55         2.54
    
    Id. at 44.
    Although these numbers support the conclusion that horizontal wells have a
    greater environmental impact than do vertical wells, these numbers are not supported
    either by the part of the record to which Appellants cite or by any other part of the record
    we could identify.
    First, Appellants cite to “JA2331–32 ([pages 4-61–4-62 of the] 2003 EIS
    providing qualitative assessment of air quality impairment and violations of air
    standards)” and “JA2328–29 (emissions estimates based on developing 663 wells per
    year)” in support of the numbers they list for air pollution associated with vertical wells.
    Aplts. Br. at 44 n.22. The first cited portion of the 2003 EIS, however, analyzes the
    overall potential effect of contemplated drilling operations on air quality in the project
    area. Those pages do not analyze the air pollution contemplated by construction of
    vertical wells, as Appellants indicate they do. Moreover, there is no discernible
    connection between any of the numbers in this cited portion of the 2003 EIS and the
    numbers in Appellants’ chart.
    The same is true of the other portion of the record Appellants cite: JA2328–29
    (pages 4-58 and 4-59 of the 2003 EIS). That portion of the 2003 EIS provides an
    “estimation of emissions for each year” under Alternative B.16 JA2328. A table on the
    16
    This portion of the 2003 EIS analyzes emissions associated with Alternative
    B—which the BLM did not select. Elsewhere, the 2003 EIS notes that air emissions
    under Alternative D, the selected alternative, would be “99.7% of that under
    Alternative B.” JA782. Air emission estimates for Alternative B therefore could
    inform estimates for Alternative D.
    41
    second cited page contains categories that match the categories in Appellants’ chart—
    VOC, CO, Nox, and PM10. However, the table indicates that it depicts “Project Year 1
    and Project Year 20 Annual Air Emissions Associated with Gas Production” under
    Alternative B. JA2329 (emphasis added). The numbers, therefore, do not represent air
    pollution associated with vertical well construction. And, once again, there is no
    discernible connection between any air pollution numbers in these pages and the vertical-
    well numbers in Appellants’ table.
    Finally, Appellants indicate that the well construction time for a vertical well is
    nine days. Again, nothing in the part of the record to which Appellants cite supports that
    assertion. However, the 2003 EIS notes elsewhere that “the time to complete individual
    wells is generally between one and two months.” JA2287 (emphasis added). This
    indicates that Appellants’ cited nine days is incorrect.
    More fundamentally, the record does not contain crucial aspects of the BLM’s
    NEPA analysis. Specifically, the record does not include the BLM’s complete air
    pollution analysis. The 2003 EIS notes that “Appendix J includes the emissions estimates
    for Alternative D.” JA2378. Appendix J also “presents data used to estimate annual air
    emissions” for each alternative. JA834. But Appendix J is not in the record.
    Further, from our review, no other part of the record includes data that would
    facilitate the comparison on which Appellants rely: the gross amount of NOx, CO, VOC,
    and PM10 created in the construction of a single vertical well. Those numbers might be in
    Appendix J—and they might even be the numbers Appellants include in their chart—but
    we have no way of determining that because Appendix J is not in the record. We
    42
    therefore cannot evaluate whether, as Appellants argue, “the 3,945 existing vertically
    drilled and the reasonably foreseeable 3,960 horizontally drilled Mancos Shale wells
    exceed the total impacts predicted in the 2003 EIS.” Aplts. Br. at 45.
    Appellants do not include the BLM’s complete analysis of air pollution in the
    2003 EIS, and therefore offer no way to compare the impacts contemplated by the 2003
    EIS with the impacts that could result from 3,960 horizontal Mancos Shale wells. The
    BLM’s NEPA analysis “is entitled to the presumption of regularity,” 
    Stiles, 654 F.3d at 1045
    , and Appellants have not carried their burden of demonstrating that the BLM acted
    arbitrarily or capriciously.
    3
    Appellants also argue that the total water used for drilling 3,960 horizontal
    Mancos Shale wells will exceed the water use contemplated in the 2003 EIS, and the
    BLM therefore abused its discretion in tiering the EAs to the 2003 EIS, issuing FONSIs,
    and approving APDs. We agree with Appellants that, as to five challenged EAs, the
    BLM did not consider the cumulative water use associated with the 3,960 reasonably
    foreseeable horizontal Mancos Shale wells. Therefore, as to these five EAs, the BLM’s
    issuance of FONSIs and approval of APDs was arbitrary and capricious.
    Appellants’ water-resources argument, like their air-pollution argument, is based
    largely on calculations in their comparison table. First, Appellants state that drilling a
    single horizontal well will use 1,020,000 gallons of water. In contrast, Appellants assert
    the 2003 EIS predicted that drilling a single vertical well would use 283,500 gallons of
    water. Appellants then multiply each of these numbers by the total number of wells
    43
    (3,960 reasonably foreseeable horizontal wells; 3,945 already drilled vertical wells) and
    arrive at a total water consumption amount of over 5 billion gallons of water. According
    to Appellants, the 2003 EIS contemplated total water use of just over 2.8 billion gallons.
    Therefore, argue Appellants, when the 3,960 reasonably foreseeable horizontal Mancos
    Shale wells are taken into account, the projected water use increases by 82% over what
    the 2003 EIS considered.
    Although we note some discrepancies between Appellants’ cited numbers and
    the numbers in the record,17 we reject Federal Appellees’ argument that Appellants’
    water-resources calculations “do not withstand scrutiny.” Fed. Aples. Br. at 33. Federal
    Appellees argue generally that water use could be decreased through “new strategies and
    technologies,” Fed. Aples. Br. at 35 (quotations omitted), but they do not point us to any
    part of the record that contradicts Appellants’ assertions that the cumulative water use
    associated with the reasonably foreseeable 3,960 wells dramatically exceeds the total
    17
    First, the average of 6,750 barrels of water per well on which Appellants
    base their vertical well calculations is the figure contemplated under Alternative A,
    which the BLM did not select. For Alternative D, the BLM’s chosen alternative, the
    2003 EIS predicted total water use of 7,000 acre-feet or an average of 0.70 acre-feet
    (228,095 gallons) of water for each well.
    And although the 2014 RFDS noted an average water use of 3.13 acre-feet
    (1.02 million gallons) for the 55 horizontal wells that had reported water use
    numbers, other figures to which Appellants cite in their water use comparison are not
    supported by the record. Specifically, Appellants indicate that three EAs “calculat[e]
    966,000 gallons per horizontal well.” Aplts. Br. at 44 n.21. Each of these three EAs,
    however, estimate that “23,000 barrels of useable water would be required to drill
    each well,” but “approximately 10,000 to 11,000 barrels would be recovered for
    reuse,” resulting in a net water use for these wells of 12,000 to 13,000 barrels, or
    504,000 to 546,000 gallons. JA1071, JA1075, JA1083. 966,000 gallons is the
    amount of water in 23,000 barrels, indicating that Appellants ignored the EAs’
    prediction that water would be recovered for reuse.
    44
    water use contemplated in the 2003 EIS. We conclude that, regardless of the minor
    inaccuracies in their calculations, Appellants have established that the difference between
    the water use contemplated in the 2003 EIS and the water use associated with drilling the
    reasonably foreseeable horizontal Mancos Shale wells is more than a “mere[] flyspeck.”
    Utahns for Better 
    Transp., 305 F.3d at 1163
    .
    None of the five EAs before us considered the cumulative impacts of the water use
    associated with all 3,960 reasonably foreseeable horizontal Mancos Shale wells. The
    only discussion of water resources in EA 2015-0036 is as follows:
    [T]he operator would follow ‘Pit Rule’ guidelines and Onshore Order
    No. 1. Drilling operations would utilize a closed-loop system. Drilling
    of the horizontal lateral would be accomplished with water-based mud.
    All cuttings would be hauled to a commercial disposal facility or land
    farm.
    JA1241. Three other EAs (EA 2015-0066, EA 2016-0029, and EA 2016-0200/2016-
    0076) all list “Groundwater Resources” as an “issue considered but not analyzed.”
    JA1305; JA1911–12; JA2082–83. Each of these EAs discusses the general process
    for hydraulic fracturing, then concludes that “[n]o impacts to surface water or
    freshwater-bearing groundwater aquifers are expected to occur from hydraulic
    fracturing of these proposed wells.” JA1912; JA2083; accord JA1306 (containing the
    same substantive analysis with slightly different wording). EAs 2015-0036, 2015-
    0066, 2016-0029, and 2016-0200/2016-0076 contain no discussion of the cumulative
    impacts related to water resources.
    EA 2014-0272 is the only EA that contains any discussion of the cumulative
    impacts on water resources. Its cumulative-impact analysis states:
    45
    Reasonably foreseeable development within the Largo sub-
    watershed may include an estimated additional 1,811 oil and gas wells and
    related facilities. Surface-disturbing activities that would be associated
    with these actions may affect an estimated 6,756 acres ([2003 EIS], page 4-
    7). The [2003 EIS] determined that the primary cumulative impacts on
    water quality would result from surface disturbance, which would generate
    increased sediment yields ([2003 EIS] pages 4-123 and 4-124). Cumulative
    effects to water resources from the proposed action would be maximized
    shortly after construction begins and would decrease over time as
    reclamation efforts progress.
    The proposed action would cumulatively contribute approximately
    20.0 acres of long-term disturbance in the watershed. Cumulative impacts
    to surface waters would be related to short-term sedimentation or flow
    changes. Surface-disturbing activities other than the proposed action that
    may cause accelerated erosion include—but are not limited to—
    construction of roads, other facilities, and installation of trenches for
    utilities; road maintenance such as grading or ditch cleaning; public
    recreational activities; vegetation manipulation and management activities;
    prescribed and natural fires; and livestock grazing.
    JA1141. This analysis of the cumulative impacts on water resources does not address the
    water consumption associated with the 3,960 reasonably foreseeable Mancos Shale wells.
    As to these five EAs, the BLM was required to, but did not, consider the
    cumulative impacts on water resources associated with drilling the 3,960 reasonably
    foreseeable horizontal Mancos Shale wells.18 The BLM therefore acted arbitrarily and
    capriciously in issuing FONSIs and approving APDs associated with these EAs.
    Federal Appellees make two additional arguments in support of the BLM’s NEPA
    analysis, both of which we reject.
    18
    All five EAs referenced the 2003 EIS in their analysis of the cumulative
    impacts associated with air pollution, but not water use.
    46
    Federal Appellees first argue that Appellants advocate “too narrow a definition of
    cumulative impact—one that would require specific, quantitative measurements of all
    potential effects.” Fed. Aples. Br. at 33. Instead, argue Federal Appellees, the 2003 EIS
    analyzed cumulative impacts via a “broad, qualitative approach . . . consistent with the
    purpose of [a] programmatic EIS.” 
    Id. This argument
    fails because the record indicates
    that (1) the BLM did quantify the cumulative water-resources impacts of proposed
    drilling in the 2003 EIS, (2) the BLM could have quantified the cumulative water-
    resources impacts of the horizontal Mancos Shale wells, and (3) water use is an important
    aspect of the environmental impacts associated with well drilling.
    First, the 2003 EIS quantified the total amount of water required for drilling
    operations in each considered alternative. Second, four of the five EAs we consider also
    included a quantitative measure of the amount of water the drilling operations for the
    proposed APDs would use. Finally, the 2003 EIS acknowledged that “[t]he primary
    issues and concerns regarding water resource problems caused by oil and gas
    development involve . . . water consumption and use.” JA2283. Likewise, the 2014
    RFDS noted that “[t]he development of the Mancos play will require additional fresh
    water for stimulation purposes,” and acknowledged that “horizontal completions . . .
    require large volumes of water for hydraulic fracturing.” JA1686.
    We therefore reject Federal Appellees’ argument that the BLM could conduct an
    adequate cumulative-impacts analysis without quantifying the amount of reasonably
    foreseeable water use. The BLM had non-speculative figures that it could use to quantify
    the cumulative impact of the drilling, and the water-resources impacts were important.
    47
    The BLM was therefore required to consider those impacts to comply with NEPA. See
    Wyoming v. 
    USDA, 661 F.3d at 1253
    (rejecting the argument that an EIS failed to
    adequately consider cumulative impacts because “cumulative impacts that are too
    speculative or hypothetical to meaningfully contribute to NEPA’s goals of public
    disclosure and informed decisionmaking need not be considered”); Utah Envtl. Congress
    v. Troyer, 
    479 F.3d 1269
    , 1280 (10th Cir. 2007) (“An agency’s decision will be deemed
    arbitrary and capricious if the agency entirely failed to consider an important aspect of
    the problem[] . . . . [or] failed to base its decision on consideration of the relevant factors .
    . . .” (internal quotations and alterations omitted)).
    We also reject Federal Appellees argument that “the site-specific APD EAs
    addressed cumulative drilling effects that differ in type and magnitude from those
    examined in the” 2003 EIS. Fed. Aples. Br. at 37. As discussed, the record indicates
    otherwise. None of the five EAs we consider contain any analysis of the cumulative
    impact to water resources from the 3,960 reasonably foreseeable horizontal Mancos Shale
    wells. And the record supports the conclusion that the water use associated with those
    3,960 wells far exceeds the water use considered in the 2003 EIS. The 2003 EIS’s water-
    resources analysis was therefore not “sufficiently comprehensive or adequate” to support
    the proposed drilling, and the EAs were required to “provide any necessary analysis.” 43
    C.F.R. § 46.140(b). Because they did not, the BLM violated NEPA.
    Appellants have established that the water use associated with drilling the 3,960
    reasonably foreseeable horizontal Mancos Shale wells exceeded the water use
    contemplated in the 2003 EIS in a way that made the BLM’s failure to consider the
    48
    cumulative water impacts “significant enough to defeat the goals of informed
    decisionmaking and informed public comment.” Utahns for Better 
    Transp, 305 F.3d at 1163
    . We conclude that the BLM acted arbitrarily and capriciously in issuing FONSIs
    and approving APDs associated with EAs 2014-0272, 2015-0036, 2015-0066, 2016-
    0029, and 2016-0200/2016-0076.
    VII
    Because we conclude that the BLM violated NEPA, we remand to the district
    court with instructions to vacate the FONSIs and APDs associated with EAs 2014-0272,
    2015-0036, 2015-0066, 2016-0029, and 2016-0200/2016-0076, and to remand those EAs
    to the BLM to conduct a proper NEPA analysis.
    “Under the APA, courts ‘shall’ ‘hold unlawful and set aside agency action’
    that is found to be arbitrary or capricious.” WildEarth Guardians v. U.S. Bureau of
    Land Mgmt., 
    870 F.3d 1222
    , 1239 (10th Cir. 2017) (quoting 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A)).
    “Vacatur of agency action is a common, and often appropriate form of injunctive
    relief granted by district courts.” 
    Id. “In the
    past, we have done all of the following
    when placed in a similar posture: (1) reversed and remanded without instructions, (2)
    reversed and remanded with instructions to vacate, and (3) vacated agency
    decisions.” 
    Id. (collecting cases).
    And remand to the agency is usually the
    appropriate decision in this situation. See Middle Rio Grande Conservancy Dist. v.
    Norton, 
    294 F.3d 1220
    , 1225–26 (10th Cir. 2002) (“[A] reviewing court normally
    remands when it finds an agency’s decision not to conduct an EIS arbitrary or
    capricious.”).
    49
    Given our remand instructions to vacate, however, there is no need to also
    “enjoin any further ground-disturbing activities on the APDs” as Appellants request.
    Aplts. Br. at 51. Once the APDs are vacated, drilling operations will have to stop
    because “[n]o drilling operations, nor surface disturbance preliminary thereto, may be
    commenced prior to” APD approval. 43 C.F.R. § 3162.3-1(c). Because vacatur is
    “sufficient to redress [Appellants’] injury, no recourse to the additional and
    extraordinary relief of an injunction [is] warranted.” Monsanto Co. v. Geertson Seed
    Farms, 
    561 U.S. 139
    , 166 (2010).
    VIII
    For the foregoing reasons, we affirm in part and reverse in part the judgment of the
    district court.19 We remand to the district court with instructions to vacate the FONSIs
    and APDs associated with EAs 2014-0272, 2015-0036, 2015-0066, 2016-0029, and
    2016-0200/2016-0076, and to remand those EAs to the BLM to conduct a proper NEPA
    analysis.
    19
    We deny Navajo Allottees Alice Benally, Lilly Comanche, Virginia
    Harrison, Samuel Harrison, Dolora Hesuse, Verna Martinez, and Lois Phoenix’s
    motion to file an amicus brief because “the matters asserted in [Navajo Allottees’
    amicus brief] are [not] relevant to the disposition of the case,” Fed. R. App. P.
    29(a)(3)(B).
    50