United States v. Henthorn , 864 F.3d 1241 ( 2017 )


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  •                                                                        FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    Tenth Circuit
    July 26, 2017
    PUBLISH                  Elisabeth A. Shumaker
    Clerk of Court
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    TENTH CIRCUIT
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff - Appellee,
    v.                                                No. 15-1490
    HAROLD ARTHUR HENTHORN,
    Defendant - Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLORADO
    (D.C. NO. 1:14-CR-00448-RBJ-1)
    O. Dean Sanderford, Assistant Federal Public Defender (Virginia L. Grady,
    Federal Public Defender, with him on the briefs), Office of the Federal Public
    Defender, Districts of Colorado and Wyoming, Denver, Colorado, for Appellant.
    J. Bishop Grewell, Assistant United States Attorney (Robert C. Troyer, Acting
    United States Attorney, with him on the brief), Office of the United States
    Attorney, Denver, Colorado, for Appellee.
    Before TYMKOVICH, Chief Judge, SEYMOUR, and KELLY, Circuit Judges.
    TYMKOVICH, Chief Judge.
    This case presents us with the difficult issue of whether a district court
    presiding over a murder trial abused its discretion in admitting evidence of prior,
    similar incidents, including whether the defendant killed his second wife in
    circumstances similar to those that led to the death of his first wife.
    We affirm. The district court did not abuse its discretion in admitting prior
    similar conduct. The court fully explained, and we agree, that the evidence was
    properly admitted under Federal Rule of Evidence 404(b), was relevant, and was
    not substantially outweighed by unfair prejudice.
    I. Background
    In September 2012, Harold Henthorn’s second wife, Toni, 1 died after
    falling more than 100 feet from a cliff in Rocky Mountain National Park. She fell
    in a remote location with poor cellular service and no nearby aid stations.
    Henthorn first called 911 around 6:00 pm, but—due to the remoteness of the
    location—by the time the first ranger arrived on the scene, it was after 8:00 pm
    and Toni was dead. After an investigation, Henthorn was charged with and tried
    for first-degree murder on the government’s theory that he, with premeditation
    and malice aforethought, pushed Toni over the cliff to her death.
    The evidence presented at trial provides a basic timeline of events, starting
    in the early afternoon when Henthorn and Toni set out for their hike as part of a
    celebration of their twelfth wedding anniversary. Sometime before 3:30 pm, the
    1
    Because this opinion refers to two of Henthorn’s wives, both of whom
    took his surname upon marriage, we refer to them by their first names to avoid
    any ambiguity.
    -2-
    couple left the established trail. Photographs around this time show the couple
    eating lunch atop a scenic cliff overlook. Additional photographs indicate that
    the couple continued off trail and found a cliff below their lunch spot around
    4:45 pm. It is estimated that Toni fell from that cliff shortly before 5:15 pm.
    Henthorn estimates it took him forty-five minutes to call 911 after Toni’s fall,
    including fifteen minutes to reach her body and thirty minutes to assess and move
    her, return to cellular coverage, and call 911. The first 911 call occurred at
    5:54 pm. At 6:16 pm, Henthorn sent a text message to Toni’s brother, Barry
    Bertolet, indicating that Toni was in critical condition after falling from a rock,
    EMTs were coming, Barry should catch the next flight, and his cell phone battery
    was low. Henthorn exchanged several conversations with 911 dispatchers
    between the time of his first call at 5:54 pm and when the first EMT ranger
    arrived at the scene around 8:00 pm, examined Toni’s body, and reported her
    death.
    An investigation of the incident raised a number of questions about
    Henthorn’s version of events. For example, Henthorn told a ranger that he and
    Toni initially planned to hike the Bear Lake trail, a half-mile of paved,
    handicapped-accessible walking with no elevation gain. He explained that they
    switched to Deer Mountain trail at the last second to avoid crowds. Deer
    Mountain trail is a three-mile hike climbing 1,200 feet from its trailhead to its
    10,200-foot summit, and thus an odd choice for Toni, who had undergone three
    -3-
    knee surgeries and whose chronic injuries left her unable to ski. Henthorn also
    feigned unfamiliarity with the park and told a ranger that he had made only one
    earlier scouting trip to the park, but phone records revealed he visited the park at
    least eight or nine times in the six weeks before Toni’s death. And while
    Henthorn described their venture away from the Deer Mountain trail to the off-
    trail lunch spot and lower cliff (where Toni fell) as a spontaneous decision to get
    away from crowds, find a romantic spot, or see wild turkeys or deer, investigators
    later discovered that he was quite familiar with the precise area where Toni died.
    For instance, Henthorn reported a white sheet adorned a cliff near Toni’s fall, but
    that sheet had actually been removed by Park Service the week before her fall.
    And the Park Service found a detailed, annotated map of the park in Henthorn’s
    car with notes, highlighting, and a pink “X” marking the spot on the map where
    Toni fell.
    Evidence of Henthorn’s communications during and after the incident was
    also troubling. For example, Henthorn reported certain vital signs (e.g., pulse and
    respirations), but the vitals he provided were inconsistent with Toni’s injuries. 2
    2
    For example, during the 911 call beginning at 5:54 pm, Henthorn told the
    dispatchers that Toni had a head injury, a pulse of 60–80, and respirations of 5–8
    per minute. He later (sometime between 6:16 pm and 6:39 pm) told Barry, Toni’s
    brother, that Toni’s pulse was 60 and respirations 5. And at 6:32 pm Henthorn
    told 911 dispatchers that Toni’s breathing was shallow and he was about to start
    CPR. But, given her injuries, Dr. James Wilkerson (the Larimer County coroner
    and chief medical examiner, qualified by the court as an expert forensic
    pathologist) estimated at trial that Toni died between 20–60 minutes after her fall,
    (continued...)
    -4-
    During the 911 call beginning at 6:54 pm, the dispatchers attempted to coach
    Henthorn through CPR but doubted he was actually performing it. 3 Less than four
    2
    (...continued)
    see R., Vol. VII, at 530, and was therefore almost certainly dead by 6:15 pm.
    3
    Julie Sullivan (the emergency services dispatcher for the Larimer
    Emergency Telephone Authority at the Estes Park Police Department) used a
    “standardized protocol” to coach people through CPR over the phone and had
    made “about 240” such calls before she talked with Henthorn in September 2012.
    R., Vol. VII, at 165–66, 171–73. Sullivan testified that her conversation with
    Henthorn was very unusual and she identified several red flags throughout the
    process. In particular, she commented,
    In my experience, when I’m doing CPR with somebody, guiding them
    through it, even if they are experienced people, nurses and other people
    on the scene, they’re extremely out of breath. I found it unusual that he
    wasn’t letting me know when he was completed with an instruction I
    had given him. A lot of—you know, every other call I’ve been with,
    the person wants to know immediately what to do next. Okay, I did my
    30, what do I do next. What do I do next. That was very unusual, and
    I didn’t feel like he was doing the CPR. Most people because of the
    exertion of doing the CPR, the compressions and also giving the
    breaths, it’s very exhausting. . . . I need to know when you’re complete
    with it, so we can go ahead and go on to the next instruction, and he
    was not letting me know after he completed every instruction I’d given
    him. So I was prompting him to let me know. . . . And also we did
    have an open line. On all the other CPR calls that I’ve done through
    my career, I can hear them as they are doing the compressions on the
    patient ‘cause it’s a lot of breathing, it’s a heavy breathing, it’s very
    exhausting, and it’s hard to even get out and talk back—they have a
    hard time talking with me because they are so out of breath because of
    the exertion.
    Id. at 174–75; see also id. at 180 (Sullivan testifying, based on her experience,
    that she “did not believe that [Henthorn] was doing the CPR,” did not think he
    was doing the steps with her, and was not out of breath—“That’s why I asked if
    someone else was there on the scene with him. I was wondering if somebody else
    was doing the chest compressions and the CPR”).
    -5-
    minutes into the call, Henthorn said he had to turn off his phone because his
    battery was almost gone. After hanging up on the 911 dispatcher, however,
    Henthorn made another twenty-two calls and sent or received ninety-eight text
    messages, including multiple calls and at least sixteen text messages to a friend
    asking if he could drive to pick Henthorn up from Estes Park and recommending
    that the friend take a particular route. And while Toni sustained serious injuries
    from the fall, the medical examiner found no signs of the abrasions, contusions,
    or anterior rib fractures typically associated with the performance of CPR. 4
    Toni’s lipstick was not even smeared from the alleged mouth-to-mouth
    resuscitation.
    Finally, the investigation revealed Henthorn had taken out several large life
    insurance policies on Toni’s life prior to her death and recently made himself the
    beneficiary of a life insurance annuity originally naming their seven-year-old
    daughter as the beneficiary. 5
    4
    Toni’s fall was broken by a tree at the cliff’s base, which scalped hair
    and tissue from her skull. Her brain was hemorrhaging, her neck was fractured,
    she had blunt force trauma to the chest, abdomen, and pelvis, her ribs were
    broken and her chest deformed with her liver and lungs lacerated and bleeding,
    and her skin was pale from blood loss.
    5
    At the time of the incident, Henthorn held three $1.5 million life
    insurance policies on Toni and a $205,000 annuity—he stood to receive more than
    $4.7 million from Toni’s death. But when a ranger asked about Toni’s life
    insurance, Henthorn only mentioned a $1 million policy for the couple’s daughter
    and a potential $50,000 policy from a recent car purchase.
    -6-
    During the course of the investigation, prosecutors learned of two prior
    incidents involving Henthorn and his wives. First, they became aware of the
    mysterious circumstances surrounding the death of Henthorn’s first wife, Lynn, in
    May 1995. Lynn died while she and Henthorn were changing a tire on the side of
    the road; she was crushed under the car and died from internal injuries consistent
    with traumatic asphyxiation. Prior to that incident, Henthorn had also taken out a
    large life insurance policy on Lynn, but no legal action came as a result. Second,
    they discovered an incident in May 2011 when Henthorn threw a heavy beam off
    a deck he was repairing at the couple’s vacation cabin near Grand Lake,
    Colorado. The beam struck Toni in the back of the neck and upper back, injuring
    her neck.
    The district court allowed the prosecution to present evidence at Henthorn’s
    murder trial of the two prior incidents to rebut Henthorn’s defense that Toni’s
    death was an accident. On appeal, Henthorn contends the district court erred in
    admitting the evidence.
    II. Analysis
    Evidence of crimes, wrongs, or other acts is prohibited under the Federal
    Rules of Evidence when used “to prove a person’s character in order to show that
    on a particular occasion the person acted in accordance with the character.” Fed.
    R. Evid. 404(b)(1). Such evidence is permitted, however, “for another purpose,
    such as proving motive, opportunity, intent, preparation, plan, knowledge,
    -7-
    identity, absence of mistake, or lack of accident.” Fed. R. Evid. 404(b)(2). To
    determine whether Rule 404(b) evidence is properly admitted, we look to the
    four-part test from Huddleston v. United States, 
    485 U.S. 681
     (1988):
    (1) The evidence must be offered for a proper purpose under Rule 404(b);
    (2) The evidence must be relevant under Rule 401;
    (3) The probative value of the evidence must not be substantially
    outweighed by its potential for unfair prejudice under Rule 403; and
    (4) The district court, upon request, must have instructed the jury pursuant
    to Rule 105 to consider the evidence only for the purpose for which it was
    admitted. See United States v. Rodella, 
    804 F.3d 1317
    , 1333 (10th Cir. 2015),
    cert. denied, 
    137 S. Ct. 37
     (2016).
    Admissibility of evidence under Rule 404(b) “involves a case-specific
    inquiry that is within the district court’s broad discretion.” United States v.
    Mares, 
    441 F.3d 1152
    , 1157 (10th Cir. 2006) (citing United States v. Olivo, 
    80 F.3d 1466
    , 1469 (10th Cir. 1996)). We review a district court’s decision to admit
    such evidence for an abuse of discretion and “will not reverse unless the district
    court’s decision exceeded the bounds of permissible choice in the circumstances
    or was arbitrary, capricious or whimsical.” Rodella, 804 F.3d at 1329 (citing
    United States v. Nance, 
    767 F.3d 1037
    , 1042 (10th Cir. 2014)).
    Before trial, the government filed a notice of Rule 404(b) evidence, stating
    that it planned to introduce evidence of three prior incidents involving Henthorn,
    -8-
    his wives, and his former sister-in-law: (1) Lynn’s death while changing a tire in
    May 1995; (2) Henthorn’s secret acquisition in 2010 of a $400,000 life insurance
    policy on Grace Rishell (who was married to Lynn’s brother) in which he named
    himself as the primary beneficiary; and (3) a previous injury suffered by Toni in
    May 2011. The defense objected and filed a motion in limine to exclude the
    evidence, primarily on the ground that it constituted improper character evidence
    and was substantially more prejudicial than probative.
    To consider the issues, the district court held an extensive, two-day hearing
    in which it heard evidence from ten witnesses (including seven defense
    witnesses), received over thirty exhibits, and heard oral argument from both sides.
    In a subsequent eighteen-page order covering all of the Huddleston factors, the
    district court ruled that the evidence of both prior incidents involving his wives
    would be admitted for the limited purpose of proving planning, intent, and lack of
    accident relating to Toni’s death in September 2012. The court denied the
    government’s request to allow testimony regarding the life insurance policy
    Henthorn took out on his former sister-in-law, finding that the incident “might be
    relevant to a charge of attempting to defraud Ms. Rishell’s insurance company,
    but . . . [was] not relevant to the actual crime charged” (i.e., Toni’s murder). R.,
    Vol. I, pt. 1, at 237–38. The court provided limiting instructions that emphasized
    the admitted evidence’s limited purpose both when the evidence was introduced at
    trial and in the written jury instructions.
    -9-
    We address the district court’s application of each of the four Huddleston
    factors in turn.
    1. Factor One: Proper Purpose
    The first Huddleston factor requires the evidence be offered for a proper
    purpose under Rule 404(b). “Evidence is offered for a proper purpose if it is
    utilized for any of the ‘other purposes’ enumerated in Rule 404(b),” United States
    v. Davis, 
    636 F.3d 1281
    , 1298 (10th Cir. 2011), and that enumerated list “is
    illustrative, not exhaustive,” United States v. Brooks, 
    736 F.3d 921
    , 939 (10th Cir.
    2013) (citing United States v. Tan, 
    254 F.3d 1204
    , 1208 (10th Cir. 2001)). “Rule
    404(b) is considered to be an inclusive rule, admitting all evidence of other
    crimes or acts except that which tends to prove only criminal disposition.”
    Brooks, 736 F.3d at 949.
    The government was required to prove Henthorn committed a specific
    intent crime: first-degree murder requires a “willful, deliberate, malicious, and
    premeditated killing.” 
    18 U.S.C. § 1111
    (a). It offered the prior acts evidence to
    prove “Henthorn’s intent, motive, and plan,” and to “establish that the death of
    his wife Toni was no accident.” R., Vol. I, pt. 1, at 16; id. at 22 (invoking
    “intent, motive, planning, preparation, and lack of accident”). The district court
    admitted the evidence to “rebut[] the defense of accident or to show[] plan and
    intent.” Id. at 231, 237. These purposes are specifically contemplated by Rule
    404(b) and are plainly proper. See Fed. R. Evid. 404(b)(2) (listing “motive,
    -10-
    opportunity, intent, preparation, plan, knowledge, identity, absence of mistake, or
    lack of accident” (emphases added)). Henthorn does not argue otherwise. 6
    The first Huddleston factor is satisfied.
    2. Factor Two: Relevance
    The second Huddleston factor requires the evidence be relevant under Rule
    401. Evidence is relevant if: (1) “it has any tendency to make a fact more or less
    probable than it would be without the evidence”; and (2) “the fact is of
    consequence in determining the action.” Fed. R. Evid. 401. In other words,
    “[r]elevant evidence tends to make a necessary element of an offense more or less
    probable.” Davis, 
    636 F.3d at 1298
    .
    a. Similarity
    The lynchpin of Huddleston relevance is similarity. “To determine the
    relevance of a prior bad act, we look to the similarity of the prior act with the
    charged offense, including their temporal proximity to each other.” Brooks, 736
    F.3d at 940. Uncharged acts are admissible “as long as the uncharged acts are
    similar to the charged crime and sufficiently close in time.” Mares, 
    441 F.3d at
    1157 (citing United States v. Zamora, 
    222 F.3d 756
    , 762 (10th Cir. 2000)).
    “[T]he degree to which factors such as temporal distance and geographical
    6
    To the extent, if any, that Henthorn disputes whether the district court
    admitted the evidence for a proper purpose under Rule 404(b)—namely, whether
    the evidence was improperly admitted to show Henthorn’s alleged propensity to
    commit murder—his arguments hinge on contentions of relevance that we address
    under the second Huddleston factor.
    -11-
    proximity are important to a determination of the probative value of similar acts
    will necessarily depend on the unique facts of each case’s proffered evidence.”
    Mares, 
    441 F.3d at 1159
    . But even so, acts “quite remote to the crime[] charged
    have frequently been deemed by us and our sister circuits to be relevant if they
    were sufficiently similar to those crimes.” United States v. Watson, 
    766 F.3d 1219
    , 1240 (10th Cir. 2014). In other words, there is “no absolute rule regarding
    the number of years that can separate offenses.” 
    Id.
     (citations omitted). Instead,
    this court “applies a reasonableness standard and examines the facts and
    circumstances of each case.” 
    Id.
     (citations omitted).
    As the district court concluded, the prior incidents here were both
    extraordinarily similar to the charged offense.
    i. Lynn’s Death
    Henthorn’s first wife, Lynn, died from internal injuries consistent with
    traumatic asphyxiation after being pinned under a vehicle. The incident occurred
    in May 1995 when she and Henthorn were changing a tire on a remote highway
    approximately thirty miles from their home in southwest Denver. The couple
    pulled over on a gravel slope alongside the road in a heavily forested area. It was
    dark and there was no cellular service. There were no houses nearby and the
    nearest hospital was a forty-minute drive away.
    Several suspicious facts about the incident are noteworthy. For example,
    the tire the couple stopped to change was not flat, but merely low, and was
    -12-
    measured at 15 out of 44 pounds of pressure (i.e., approximately 34 percent). The
    spare tire they sought to replace it with was measured at only 4 pounds more (i.e.,
    19 out of 44 pounds of pressure, or approximately 43 percent). Other tires on the
    vehicle were also low, inflated between 27–30 out of 44 pounds of pressure (i.e.,
    approximately 61–68 percent). A local mechanic coincidentally drove by the
    couple around 9:30 pm and asked the Henthorns if they needed any help. Even
    though Henthorn had only a small flashlight and would later claim he did not
    know how to change a tire, he declined the mechanic’s offer to shine his
    headlights on the scene or otherwise help change the tire.
    Half an hour later, around 10:00 pm, Henthorn flagged down another car
    and told the occupants the car had fallen on top of his wife. They drove back up
    the road to try to find a house and call 911 but, when they could not find a phone,
    returned to the scene to try to help. Two men were able to lift up the car and free
    an unconscious Lynn. Then, Henthorn angrily screamed at them not to touch her.
    Over Henthorn’s objections, they started CPR and got her breathing again.
    Meanwhile, another passenger left the scene again, to try to find a phone, and
    returned with blankets after finding someone to call 911. Emergency vehicles
    eventually arrived at the scene and Lynn was airlifted to a nearby hospital but
    died in surgery due to internal injuries.
    Henthorn later told inconsistent stories about the incident. For example,
    Henthorn told an emergency responder that Lynn was changing the tire, but told
    -13-
    others that he was the one changing the tire. He told officers he used boat jacks
    to prop up the car because he had tried the regular jack but could not get it to
    work even after he lubricated it. No lubricant or oil was found at the scene.
    Henthorn also suggested that he got Lynn out from under the car and started CPR
    (without any mention of the passersby who stopped to help and were the ones to
    perform CPR), and he vacillated between whether he and Lynn were going to, or
    coming from, dinner. When law enforcement asked Henthorn whether Lynn’s life
    was insured, he disclosed only one of the multiple life insurance policies he
    would collect on. Henthorn ultimately collected $600,000 in life insurance,
    including proceeds from a policy that went into effect only two and a half months
    before Lynn’s death and from an accidental death rider that doubled the benefit
    from $150,000 to $300,000 in the event Lynn died in an accident.
    A couple days after the incident, one of the good samaritans who stopped to
    help called law enforcement to voice her suspicions and ask if Henthorn had been
    arrested in connection with Lynn’s death. While law enforcement briefly
    investigated Lynn’s death as a suspicious incident, investigators eventually
    determined her death was an accident despite the unusual circumstances. For
    example, even though a sheriff’s deputy photographed a suspicious shoe print
    atop the car’s fender (potentially suggesting that the car had been pushed off,
    rather than fallen from, the jacks) and investigators took a photograph of
    -14-
    Henthorn’s shoes for comparison purposes, that comparison was never made. The
    investigators also never challenged Henthorn’s inconsistent statements.
    ii. Toni’s Injury
    In May 2011, Henthorn’s second wife, Toni, suffered a neck injury when
    she was struck in the back of the neck and upper back with a large wooden beam.
    The incident occurred when she and Henthorn were staying at their cabin near
    Grand Lake, Colorado. It was dark and their secluded cabin was surrounded by
    trees on three sides.
    Several facts about the Grand Lake deck incident raise suspicion. For
    example, it was around 10:00 pm at night but Henthorn was allegedly doing
    construction work or cleaning on the deck of the cabin. Henthorn later told
    inconsistent stories about the incident. For example, Henthorn told the
    paramedics he threw the beam that hit Toni, but told an emergency room doctor
    that the beam had merely fallen off the deck and hit her. He also told a friend
    that he dropped the beam on Toni when he slipped from a ladder that she was
    holding. A nurse’s note in Toni’s file indicates that Toni was under the deck,
    holding a flashlight for Henthorn when the beam fell. And in one account, given
    to friends he called to come and watch his and Toni’s daughter (who was asleep
    inside the cabin), Henthorn suggested Toni was cleaning up around the deck and
    had just bent down when a piece of lumber fell off the deck and hit her. If she
    had not bent down, the beam would have presumably hit her in the head instead of
    -15-
    the neck and back. But when the friends arrived at the cabin that night to watch
    the Henthorns’ daughter, they did not see any lumber on the deck.
    Prior to the incident, Henthorn held four $1.5 million life insurance policies
    on Toni but cancelled one of the policies—the second of two with the same
    insurance company, American General—in February 2011, three months before
    the injury. One month before the injury, in April 2011, Henthorn made himself
    the beneficiary of a $205,000 life insurance annuity bought by Toni’s parents for
    the Henthorns’ young daughter.
    At the time, medical personnel deemed the incident an accident. No one,
    including Toni, voiced any suspicions that Henthorn intended to injure her and
    there were no police reports or activity.
    ***
    Each incident, including Toni’s death, occurred in a remote location which
    impeded communications, delayed emergency responders, and reduced the
    likelihood of accidental witnesses. Indeed, Henthorn was always the only witness
    at the time of injury. And in the aftermath of each incident, Henthorn told
    inconsistent stories about what happened. Although there is a seventeen-year gap
    between his first wife’s death and Toni’s, the temporal distance is not per se
    disqualifying, 7 and does not overshadow the marked similarities between the
    7
    See, e.g., United States v. Watson, 
    766 F.3d 1219
     (10th Cir. 2014) (ten to
    seventeen years); United States v. Roberts, 
    185 F.3d 1125
     (10th Cir. 1999)
    (continued...)
    -16-
    incidents. Henthorn’s first wife, Lynn, died after thirteen years of marriage to
    Henthorn. His second wife, Toni, died after twelve years of marriage. Henthorn
    lied about the applicable life insurance policies and collected significant sums of
    life insurance proceeds from each death. Over their respective family’s
    objections, he also had each woman’s body quickly cremated and spread their
    ashes at the same spot on Red Mountain near Ouray, Colorado.
    b. Independence from Character Inferences
    Evidence’s relevance cannot “depend on a defendant likely acting in
    conformity with an alleged character trait” or require the jury to draw a “chain of
    inferences dependent upon [a] conclusion” about the defendant’s character. See
    United States v. Commanche, 
    577 F.3d 1261
    , 1267, 1269 (10th Cir. 2009). But
    all this is “not to say that other-act evidence must be excluded whenever a
    propensity inference can be drawn; rather, Rule 404(b) excludes the evidence if
    its relevance to ‘another [proper] purpose’ is established only through the
    forbidden propensity inference.” Rodella, 804 F.3d at 1333.
    7
    (...continued)
    (sixteen years); United States v. Meacham, 
    115 F.3d 1488
     (10th Cir. 1997)
    (twenty-five to twenty-nine years); United States v. Wacker, 
    72 F.3d 1453
     (10th
    Cir. 1995) (thirteen years); see also, e.g., United States v. Luger, 
    837 F.3d 870
    (8th Cir. 2016) (twenty-five years); United States v. Sterling, 
    738 F.3d 228
     (11th
    Cir. 2013) (fifteen years); United States v. Rodriguez, 
    215 F.3d 110
     (1st Cir.
    2000) (fifteen years); United States v. Hernandez-Guevara, 
    162 F.3d 863
     (5th Cir.
    1998) (eighteen years); United States v. Hadley, 
    918 F.2d 848
     (9th Cir. 1990)
    (fifteen years).
    -17-
    Evidence remains admissible even if it has the potential “impermissible
    side effect of allowing the jury to infer criminal propensity,” so long as the jury
    “[i]s not required to make any such inferences in order to also” find wilfulness or
    intent. See 
    id.
     at 1333–34 (emphasis added). For example, consider our decision
    in United States v. Moran, 
    503 F.3d 1135
     (10th Cir. 2007). There, the district
    court presiding over defendant Moran’s trial for being a felon in possession of a
    firearm allowed the government to present evidence of Moran’s prior felon-in-
    possession conviction. See 
    id.
     at 1138–39. While the use of Moran’s prior
    conviction to help prove the only challenged element of the charged offense (i.e.,
    that Moran “knowingly possessed” the firearm) “involve[d] a kind of propensity
    inference (i.e., because he knowingly possessed a firearm in the past, he
    knowingly possessed the firearm in the present case),” we explained that the
    inference did “not require a jury to first draw the forbidden general inference of
    bad character or criminal disposition.” 
    Id. at 1145
    . Instead, the inference was
    “specific” and “rest[ed] on a logic of improbability that recognizes that a prior act
    involving the same knowledge decreases the likelihood that the defendant lacked
    the requisite knowledge in committing the charged offense.” 
    Id.
    Likewise, the use of the prior incidents here rests on a logic of
    improbability that recognizes that prior incidents involving similar circumstances
    decrease the likelihood that Henthorn lacked the requisite intent, motive, and plan
    -18-
    in committing the charged offense. Indeed, the prior incidents make it more
    likely that the charged offense was the product of design, rather than an accident. 8
    In asserting that the evidence is irrelevant, Henthorn relies on our decision
    in Commanche, where we reversed the district court’s decision to admit Rule
    8
    Henthorn and the government spar over whether the chain of logic
    supporting admission of the prior incidents is one of relevance or character. This
    logic may be—but is not necessarily—viewed as an application of the so-called
    “doctrine of chances.” The doctrine of chances relies on objective observations
    about the probability of events and their relative frequency, and the improbability
    of multiple coincidences. As explained by the Seventh Circuit in United States v.
    York, 
    933 F.2d 1343
     (7th Cir. 1991), the doctrine “tells us that highly unusual
    events are highly unlikely to repeat themselves . . . . The man who wins the
    lottery once is envied; the one who wins it twice is investigated.” 
    Id. at 1350
    .
    Although this court has never explicitly endorsed the doctrine of chances, we
    have acknowledged the doctrine in upholding the relevance of prior act evidence
    to prove specific intent in a criminal drug trafficking case. See United States v.
    Cherry, 
    433 F.3d 698
    , 701–02 (10th Cir. 2005). For academic analysis and
    criticism of the doctrine, see generally Edward J. Inwinkelried, An Evidentiary
    Paradox: Defending the Character Evidence Prohibition by Upholding a Non-
    Character Theory of Logical Relevance, the Doctrine of Chances, 
    40 U. Rich. L. Rev. 419
     (2006); Andrew J. Morris, Federal Rule of Evidence 404(b): The
    Fictitious Ban on Character Reasoning from Other Crime Evidence, 
    17 Rev. Litig. 181
     (1998).
    We are inclined to agree with the district court that the doctrine of chances
    “is merely one name to call a common sense observation that a string of
    improbable incidents is unlikely to be the result of chance,” an observation
    recognized by the Supreme Court in Lisenba v. California, 
    314 U.S. 219
    , 227
    (1941) (invoking the “widely recognized principle that similar but disconnected
    acts may be shown to establish intent, design, and system”). Indeed, Lisenba
    involved testimony concerning the mysterious death of the defendant’s former
    wife, which was admitted as evidence in a trial against the defendant for the
    murder of his second wife “in a manner to give the appearance of accident” and
    collect life insurance. Id. at 223. The Court did not invoke the doctrine of
    chances by name, but rejected the defendant’s argument that the death of his first
    wife was “wholly disconnected from the crime charged” and upheld the rule of
    evidence as applied. See id. at 226–27.
    -19-
    404(b) evidence. There, defendant Commanche faced criminal assault charges
    after injuring two unarmed opponents with a box cutter in a fight. Commanche,
    
    577 F.3d at 1263
    . Commanche claimed he acted in self defense, and the
    government sought to introduce evidence of his two prior convictions for
    aggravated battery for altercations in which he brandished sharp cutting
    instruments. See 
    id.
     at 1263–65. We concluded the evidence was irrelevant
    because “[t]he only disputed issue at trial was whether Commanche acted in self
    defense.” 
    Id. at 1265
    . The fact “[t]hat Commanche ha[d] twice been convicted of
    battering people in the past . . . ha[d] no direct bearing on whether he acted in self
    defense in this particular instance.” 
    Id. at 1268
    . As we explained, Commanche
    was not a case “in which intent is proven circumstantially based on repeated
    substantially similar acts” because the details of his prior convictions
    “demonstrate nothing about his intent; they simply show that he is violent.” 
    Id. at 1269
    . Notably, “[t]here [wa]s no indication in the record that Commanche
    claimed self defense on the other two occasions.” 
    Id.
    Unlike the defendant in Commanche, Henthorn has repeatedly asserted the
    same defense—i.e., that he and his wives have been victims of multiple tragic
    accidents. The prior incidents admitted here have many more marks of similarity,
    especially those pointing to motive, intent, and planning. Our case is thus more
    akin to a hypothetical version of Commanche in which the defendant was
    involved in several fights and always claimed self-defense. At some point, the
    -20-
    court may reasonably begin to question whether the defendant actually acted in
    self-defense and whether his use of force was justified. 9
    Although the evidence may allow the jury to draw negative inferences
    about Henthorn’s character, such inferences are not required before a jury may
    9
    This is not a novel proposition. For example, in State v. Roth, 
    881 P.2d 268
     (Wash. App. 1994), the court upheld the trial court’s decision to admit
    evidence of the mysterious death of defendant Roth’s second wife when Roth was
    on trial for his fourth wife’s death. See 
    id. at 271
    . Roth was not charged after his
    second wife fell from a cliff while the couple was hiking, and he collected
    significant life insurance proceeds. 
    Id.
     Roth was charged, however, after his
    fourth wife drowned during an outing on an inflatable raft. 
    Id.
     The court
    presiding over Roth’s trial for murdering his fourth wife admitted evidence of the
    second wife’s death to help prove Roth’s intent, including “proof of scheme or
    plan, proof of motive, proof of distinctive modus operandi, to rebut a claim of
    accident, and under the doctrine of chances.” 
    Id. at 272
    . The trial court found
    the evidence of the second wife’s death “highly relevant” and the appellate court
    further emphasized that the evidence was particularly probative because Roth’s
    defense at trial was that his fourth wife’s injuries occurred by happenstance or
    misfortune (i.e., that her death was an accident). See 
    id.
     273–75. As the court
    explained,
    [A] material issue of accident arises where the defense is denial and the
    defendant affirmatively asserts that the victim’s injuries occurred by
    happenstance or misfortune. . . . It is undisputed that Roth’s defense
    was that [his fourth wife’s] drowning was accidental—i.e., that no
    crime occurred. Clearly, then, evidence of a prior incident in which
    Roth married, insured, and murdered a woman would be highly relevant
    to a crucial aspect of the State’s case: the need to rebut Roth’s claim of
    accident and to establish an intentional killing. Thus, as the trial court
    concluded, the evidence was highly relevant as to a material assertion
    of the defendant.
    
    Id. at 275
    . “[T]he marked similarities between the victims, the physical
    circumstances of the crimes, and the relatively complex nature of the crimes”
    further supported “a commonsense inference that the deaths of Roth’s spouses
    were not mere fortuities.” 
    Id. at 276
    .
    -21-
    find that the prior incidents are relevant for a proper purpose—i.e., that they bear
    on Henthorn’s intent, motive, plan, or lack of accident. The inference here, as in
    Moran, is specific and rests on a logic of improbability recognizing that a prior
    act involving similar circumstances decreases the likelihood that Henthorn lacked
    the specific intent in committing the charged offense.
    c. Preliminary Rule 104(b) finding
    “[I]n the Rule 404(b) context, similar act evidence is relevant only if the
    jury can reasonably conclude that the act occurred and that the defendant was the
    actor.” Dowling v. United States, 
    493 U.S. 342
    , 346 (1990) (citing Huddleston,
    458 U.S. at 689). This requirement stems from Federal Rule of Evidence 104(b),
    which, “[w]hen the relevance of evidence depends on whether a fact exists,”
    requires proof “sufficient to support a finding that the fact does exist.” Fed. R.
    Evid. 104(b); see also Huddleston, 458 U.S. at 689–91.
    In its order admitting the challenged evidence, the district court readily
    acknowledged the prior incidents did “not present a typical prior-bad-act
    scenario.” See R., Vol. I, pt. 1, at 224. “Usually, the prior act is clearly a bad
    act,” but Henthorn insisted each incident was merely an accident. Id. (emphasis
    removed). And if the incidents were all accidents, the evidence would be
    irrelevant. As a prerequisite for admitting the evidence, then, the district court
    made two Rule 104(b) findings.
    -22-
    First, as to Lynn’s death, the district court found there was sufficient
    evidence “for a jury to reasonably find the conditional fact—that Mr. Henthorn
    orchestrated the murder of Lynn Henthorn—by a preponderance of the evidence.”
    Id. at 225. In reaching this conclusion, the district court credited evidence from
    the government “expos[ing] a number of discrepancies in Mr. Henthorn’s various
    accounts of the events leading to the death of Lynn Henthorn,” including: “[1]
    which of the couple was changing the tire; [2] whether one or two jacks were used
    to prop up the car initially; [3] whether the couple was returning from dinner or
    heading to dinner when the accident occurred; and [4] at what time the couple left
    their house that day.” Id. Circumstantial evidence further supported the
    government’s theory, including:
    [1] the fact that there was a shoe print on the wheel well of the tire
    being changed suggesting that the car may have been kicked or pushed
    off of the jack; [2] that the tire being replaced was not flat but only had
    low pressure, and that the spare tire had similarly low pressure; [3] that
    no lubricant was found in an inventory of the car to support Mr.
    Henthorn’s allegation that he attempted to lubricate the proper jack so
    that he could use it; [4] that a passerby had stopped and offered to help
    change the tire, but that Mr. Henthorn declined his offer; [5] that the
    same passerby offered to shine his headlights on the car, which Mr.
    Henthorn also declined in spite of [its] being dark with no lights on the
    road and his only having a mini-flashlight; [6] that the incident
    occurred without any witnesses and in a remote location that delayed
    emergency responders; and [7] that in attempts to physically recreate
    the incident as told by Mr. Henthorn investigators have been
    unsuccessful.
    Id. In addition, the government proffered evidence of Henthorn’s inexplicable
    interactions with a second group of passersby after the car fell on Lynn, including
    -23-
    that “Henthorn attempted to prevent them from performing CPR on Lynn” and,
    because Henthorn “refused to warm Lynn with his coat in spite of the near-
    freezing temperatures,” “the passersby instead placed their coats on her.” Id. at
    226. And the district court recognized testimony suggesting that in the aftermath
    of the incident the cremator found Henthorn’s “insistence that Lynn be
    immediately cremated” to raise suspicion, and a deputy coroner investigator
    working on the case wanted to develop additional evidence but was not permitted
    to do so. See id. It was also discovered that, although Henthorn mentioned only
    one life insurance policy when he was questioned by officials, there were actually
    three policies in Lynn’s name. See id. Combined, the district court thus found
    there was “sufficient evidence to support a reasonable finding by a jury that it is
    more likely than not that Lynn Henthorn’s death was not an accident but instead a
    murder.” Id.
    Second, as to Toni’s previous injury at the cabin near Grand Lake, the
    district court found “a jury could reasonably find by a preponderance of the
    evidence that the deck incident was not an accident, but rather a deliberate
    attempt to bring about his wife’s death.” Id. at 236. In reaching this conclusion,
    the district court determined the deck incident was “analytically similar” to the
    tire-changing incident. See id. at 235. As the district court explained,
    The circumstances of the accident were unusual. The Henthorns were
    ostensibly doing work outside their cabin late at night. Mr. Henthorn
    allegedly tossed or dropped a board over the edge of the deck, and it
    -24-
    struck his wife, who was picking up broken glass on the ground below,
    on the back of her neck. No one else was present. Toni sustained
    injuries serious enough to be taken to the local hospital and then
    transported to a trauma center in Denver, although the injuries turned
    out to be less serious than the initial diagnosis. Mr. Henthorn allegedly
    told inconsistent stories about what happened. He was the beneficiary
    of substantial insurance on Toni’s life.
    Id. The district court recognized this was a close call, and that while “[b]eing hit
    by a board dropped from ten feet may well cause serious injury, depending upon
    the size of the board and where the victim is hit,” it would be “markedly less
    likely” to result in death than being pinned under a car or pushed off a cliff, and
    may be “an odd way to attempt it.” Id. 10 Considering “all the evidence
    presented,” however, the district court concluded that “a jury could reasonably
    find that the deck incident was a deliberate attempt on Mr. Henthorn’s part to kill
    his wife, rather than an accident.” Id.
    Henthorn has not challenged either of these Rule 104(b) findings on appeal.
    And the jurors were repeatedly instructed to ignore the evidence of the prior
    incidents if they decided they were accidents.
    ***
    We are satisfied that the second Huddleston factor is met.
    10
    We generally agree with the district court that admitting evidence of the
    Grand Lake deck incident was a “closer call” than admitting evidence of the tire-
    changing incident. R., Vol. I, pt. 1, at 235. Even if the district court’s decision to
    admit evidence of the Grand Lake deck incident was error, however, we would
    find that any error was harmless in light of the tire-changing incident and other
    incriminating evidence presented at trial.
    -25-
    3. Factor Three: Probative Value Versus Unfair Prejudice
    The third Huddleston factor requires the evidence’s probative value not be
    substantially outweighed by its potential for unfair prejudice. The corresponding
    Federal Rule of Evidence provides that a court “may exclude evidence if its
    probative value is substantially outweighed by a danger of one or more of the
    following: unfair prejudice, confusing the issues, misleading the jury, undue
    delay, wasting time, or needlessly presenting cumulative evidence.” Fed. R. Evid.
    403. The exclusion of evidence under Rule 403 “is an extraordinary remedy and
    should be used sparingly.” Brooks, 736 F.3d at 940 (quoting Tan, 
    254 F.3d at 1211
    ).
    “Evidence is unfairly prejudicial if it makes a conviction more likely
    because it provokes an emotional response in the jury or otherwise tends to affect
    adversely the jury’s attitude toward the defendant wholly apart from its judgment
    as to his guilt or innocence of the crime charged.” United States v. MacKay, 
    715 F.3d 807
    , 840 (10th Cir. 2013) (citation omitted) (emphasis added). “In engaging
    in the requisite balancing,” courts “give the evidence its maximum reasonable
    probative force and its minimum reasonable prejudicial value.” United States v.
    Cerno, 
    529 F.3d 926
    , 935 (10th Cir. 2008). And “it is not enough that the risk of
    unfair prejudice be greater than the probative value of the evidence; the danger of
    that prejudice must substantially outweigh the evidence’s probative value.” 
    Id.
    “The trial court has broad discretion to determine whether prejudice inherent in
    -26-
    otherwise relevant evidence outweighs its probative value” and, for this court to
    overturn a district court’s exercise of this discretion on appeal, we must be able to
    say the court made an “obvious” or “substantial” error. See United States v.
    Magallanez, 
    408 F.3d 672
    , 678–79 (10th Cir. 2005) (citation omitted).
    Here, in admitting the challenged evidence the district court reasoned that
    “[a]lthough this evidence might provoke an emotional response, it would not do
    so ‘wholly apart’ from its relevance to rebutting the defense of accident or to
    showing plan or intent.” R., Vol. I, pt. 1, at 231. The district court found that
    any prejudice resulting from the admission of the evidence was “therefore not
    ‘unfair’” and, in any event, would not substantially outweigh the evidence’s
    probative value. See id. at 231; id. at 237 (“As with the [tire-changing]
    incident, . . . the probative value of [the Grand Lake deck incident] is not
    substantially outweighed by the danger of unfair prejudice. If it were viewed by
    the jury as an accident, the deck incident would not reasonably provoke an
    emotional response adverse to Mr. Henthorn. If viewed by the jury as not having
    been an accident, then the deck incident presumably would adversely affect the
    jury’s attitude toward Mr. Henthorn, but . . . not [ ] wholly apart from the jury’s
    judgment as to his guilt or innocence of the crime charged.”).
    Assuming maximum reasonable probative force and minimum reasonable
    prejudicial value, Cerno, 
    529 F.3d at 935
    , we cannot say the district court abused
    its discretion in completing its Rule 403 balancing inquiry. While evidence of the
    -27-
    prior incidents was undoubtedly prejudicial in the broad sense, it was also highly
    probative of lack of accident and Henthorn’s specific intent. Even if reasonable
    jurists may have weighed the Rule 403 factors differently and reached a different
    conclusion about the evidence’s admissibility, we cannot say the district court
    made an “obvious” or “substantial” error.
    Thus, the third Huddleston factor is satisfied.
    4. Factor Four: Limiting Instruction
    The fourth and final Huddleston factor requires the district court, upon
    request, to instruct the jury to consider the evidence only for the purpose for
    which it was admitted. The corresponding Federal Rule of Evidence provides that
    “[i]f a court admits evidence that is admissible . . . for a purpose—but not . . . for
    another purpose—the court, on timely request, must restrict the evidence to its
    proper scope and instruct the jury accordingly.” Fed. R. Evid. 105. For example,
    “[a] limiting instruction cautions the jury that the Rule 404(b) evidence should be
    considered only for the purposes for which it was admitted and not as evidence of
    the defendant’s character or propensity to commit an offense.” Davis, 
    636 F.3d at 1298
    .
    Here, the district court gave limiting instructions both when the evidence of
    the tire-changing and Grand Lake deck incidents was first admitted at trial and
    again in the closing jury instructions. When the jury first heard the evidence at
    trial, the district court explained that the jurors could only consider the evidence
    -28-
    for the limited purposes of: (1) rebutting the defense that Toni’s death was an
    accident; and (2) establishing planning and intent by Henthorn regarding Toni’s
    death. See R., Vol. VII, at 937–38 (Grand Lake deck incident); id. at 1063 (tire-
    changing incident). The instructions also emphasized that Henthorn’s
    commission of the acts involved in the prior incidents did not mean that he
    necessarily committed the act charged in the case, and that, if the jury decided
    Henthorn did not commit the acts involved in the prior incidents they were “not to
    consider the evidence about [the prior incidents] for any purpose.” See id. at 938
    (Grand Lake deck incident); id. at 1063–64 (tire-changing incident). When a
    juror asked the court to repeat the cautionary instruction, it did. See id. at 939.
    After taking into account both parties’ proposed 404(b) instructions, the
    court’s written instructions at the close of trial again carefully cabined the jury’s
    use of the prior acts evidence. The final instructions read as follows:
    During the trial you heard evidence about [the tire-changing and
    Grand Lake deck incidents]. When you heard that evidence I gave you
    an instruction about it. I am now repeating that instruction.
    You may consider the evidence about this incident only for the
    following limited purposes: (1) rebutting the defense that Toni
    Henthorn’s death was an accident; and (2) establishing planning and
    intent by the defendant regarding Toni Henthorn’s death.
    The fact the defendant may have previously committed [the tire-
    changing or Grand Lake deck acts] does not mean that he necessarily
    committed the act charged in this case.
    -29-
    If after your consideration of all the evidence, you decide [the
    tire-changing or Grand Lake deck incident] was an accident, then you
    are not to consider the evidence about that act for any purpose.
    R., Vol. I, pt. 2, at 94–95. These instructions mirrored the defense’s proposed
    404(b) instructions with only minor modifications. 11
    We are satisfied these instructions adequately advised the jury of its
    obligations under Rule 404(b). And, “absent a showing to the contrary, we
    ‘presume jurors will conscientiously follow the trial court’s instructions.’”
    Brooks, 736 F.3d at 941 (citation omitted).
    The district court’s repeated explanations readily satisfy the fourth
    Huddleston factor.
    III. Conclusion
    All four Huddleston factors are met—the government offered the evidence
    of the two prior incidents for a proper purpose under Rule 404(b), the evidence
    was relevant under Rule 401, the probative value of the evidence was not
    substantially outweighed by its potential for unfair prejudice under Rule 403, and
    the district court repeatedly instructed the jury pursuant to Rule 105 to consider
    the evidence only for the purpose for which it was admitted. Accordingly, we
    11
    In particular, the court’s final instructions substituted “the defendant”
    for “Mr. Henthorn” twice and, in the final paragraph, used the phrase “If after
    your consideration of all the evidence, you decide the [tire-changing / Grand Lake
    deck] act was an accident” rather than “If you decide that Mr. Henthorn did not
    commit the [tire-changing / Grand Lake deck] act.” Compare R., Vol. I, pt. 1, at
    267–70, with R., Vol. I, pt. 2, at 94–95.
    -30-
    hold the district court did not abuse its discretion in admitting the challenged
    evidence and thus AFFIRM Henthorn’s conviction.
    -31-