Renewable Fuels Association v. EPA ( 2020 )


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  •                                                                         FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    PUBLISH                          Tenth Circuit
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS                 January 24, 2020
    Christopher M. Wolpert
    FOR THE TENTH CIRCUIT                      Clerk of Court
    _________________________________
    RENEWABLE FUELS ASSOCIATION;
    AMERICAN COALITION FOR
    ETHANOL; NATIONAL CORN
    GROWERS ASSOCIATION; NATIONAL
    FARMERS UNION,
    Petitioners,
    No. 18-9533
    v.
    UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL
    PROTECTION AGENCY,
    Respondent,
    and
    HOLLYFRONTIER CHEYENNE
    REFINING, LLC; HOLLYFRONTIER
    REFINING AND MARKETING, LLC;
    HOLLYFRONTIER WOODS CROSS
    REFINING, LLC; WYNNEWOOD
    REFINING COMPANY, LLC,
    Intervenors – Respondents.
    __________________
    THE AMERICAN FUEL AND
    PETROCHEMICAL
    MANUFACTURERS,
    Amicus Curiae.
    _________________________________
    Petition for Review from an Order of the
    Environmental Protection Agency
    (EPA No. 1-3876)
    _________________________________
    Matthew W. Morrison (Cynthia Cook Robertson and Bryan M. Stockton, with him on the
    briefs), Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP, Washington, DC, appearing for
    Petitioners.
    Patrick R. Jacobi, Environmental Defense Section, United States Department of Justice,
    Denver, Colorado (Jeffrey Bossert Clark, Assistant Attorney General, and Susan Stahle,
    Office of the General Counsel, United States Environmental Protection Agency,
    Washington, DC, with him on the briefs), appearing for Respondents.
    Peter D. Keisler (C. Fredrick Beckner, III, Ryan C. Morris, and Peter C. Whitfield, with
    him on the briefs), Sidley Austin, LLP, Washington, DC, appearing for Respondents
    HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC, HollyFrontier Refining & Marketing, LLC, and
    HollyFrontier Woods Cross Refining, LLC.
    Brian H. Potts and Jonathan G. Hardin, Perkins Coie LLP, Madison, Wisconsin, on the
    briefs for Respondent Wynnewood Refining Company, LLC.
    Richard S. Moskowitz, American Fuel & Pertrochemical Manufacturers, Washington,
    DC, and Robert J. Meyers and Thomas A. Lorenzen, Crowell & Moring, LLP,
    Washington, DC, filed an Amicus Curiae brief for American Fuel & Petrochemical
    Manufacturers, in support of Respondent.
    _________________________________
    Before BRISCOE, KELLY, and LUCERO, Circuit Judges.
    _________________________________
    BRISCOE, Circuit Judge.
    _________________________________
    2
    I.     THE CLEAN AIR ACT, RENEWABLE FUELS, AND SMALL REFINERIES ................... 7
    A.      LEGISLATIVE AND EXECUTIVE HISTORY ................................................. 7
    B.      REGULATIONS AND POST-ENACTMENT HISTORY .................................. 17
    C.      THE EXEMPTION EXTENSION PETITIONS ............................................... 30
    1. CHEYENNE .............................................................................. 32
    2. WOODS CROSS ........................................................................ 35
    3. WYNNEWOOD .......................................................................... 37
    II.    THE BIOFUELS COALITION’S STANDING TO SUE ............................................... 38
    III.   OTHER JURISDICTIONAL ISSUES ....................................................................... 58
    A.      TIMELINESS ......................................................................................... 58
    B.      RIPENESS ............................................................................................. 61
    IV.    THE BIOFUELS COALITION’S STATUTORY CONSTRUCTION CHALLENGES.......... 64
    A.      EXTENSION OF EXEMPTION .................................................................. 67
    1. TEXTUAL ANALYSIS ................................................................ 69
    2. THE 2014 SMALL REFINERY RULE ........................................... 79
    B.      DISPROPORTIONATE ECONOMIC HARDSHIP .......................................... 84
    C.      HARDSHIP FROM COMPLIANCE ............................................................. 87
    V.     THE BIOFUELS COALITION’S ADDITIONAL CHALLENGES .................................. 89
    VI.    MOTIONS ......................................................................................................... 97
    3
    VII.   CONCLUSION ................................................................................................... 99
    4
    In the mid-2000s, Congress launched an effort to amend the Clean Air Act
    (“CAA”) to try to reduce the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels. The resulting
    legislation set ambitious targets for replacing specified volumes of crude oil fuel with
    renewable fuels. The legislation created several exemptions from this “biofuels”
    mandate, including a temporary exemption for small refineries if compliance in a
    given year would impose disproportionate economic hardship. The United States
    Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA” or “agency”) is charged with
    implementing the legislation, and the agency has promulgated numerous regulations
    for that purpose.
    At issue here are three EPA orders granting extensions of the small refinery
    exemption. Those orders were not made available to the public, for reasons later
    explained. The orders are being challenged by a group of renewable fuels producers
    who say they found out about the extensions through news articles or public company
    filings. We refer to these producers collectively as the Biofuels Coalition, and their
    petition to this court raises several important questions. The EPA opposes the
    Biofuels Coalition’s appeal. So do the three recipients of the small refinery
    extensions, who have been granted leave to intervene.
    As a preliminary matter, we conclude that the Biofuels Coalition has standing
    to sue. Constituents of the Biofuels Coalition have established an injury in fact in the
    form of lower prices, lower revenues, or increased competition with respect to the
    renewable fuels those constituents market and sell. For standing purposes, this injury
    is fairly traceable to the EPA’s decisions to grant extensions of the three small
    5
    refinery exemptions in question. A favorable judicial decision is likely to redress at
    least some of this injury, assuming, as we must, that the EPA will continue to follow
    Congress’s directive to implement and flesh out the renewable fuels program.
    We also conclude that this court otherwise has jurisdiction over the matter.
    This case does not involve a challenge to a nationally-applicable agency rule, which
    challenge could only be heard in the United States Court of Appeals for the District
    of Columbia Circuit. The Clean Air Act contains a 60-day filing deadline with
    jurisdictional implications, but that deadline is triggered when final agency action
    appears in the Federal Register. The EPA never published the extension orders at
    issue. And although members of the Biofuels Coalition were not invited to
    participate in the proceedings that generated the orders, the record is sufficient (and
    the controversy is ripe) for judicial resolution.
    On the merits, we agree in part with two of the Biofuels Coalition’s three
    statutory construction arguments. The amended Clean Air Act allows the EPA to
    grant an “extension” of the small refinery exemption – not a stand-alone “exemption”
    – in response to a convincing petition. The statute limits exemptions to situations
    involving “extensions,” with the goal of forcing the market to accept escalating
    amounts of renewable fuels over time. None of the three small refineries here
    consistently received an exemption in the years preceding its petition. The EPA
    exceeded its statutory authority in granting those petitions because there was nothing
    for the agency to “extend.” Further, one of the EPA’s reasons for granting the
    petitions was to address disproportionate economic hardship caused by something
    6
    other than compliance with the renewable fuels mandate. That, too, was beyond the
    agency’s statutory authority. The Biofuels Coalition additionally claims that the EPA
    read the word “disproportionate” out of the statute, but we reject that argument.
    Once we move from the topic of statutory authority, we disagree with almost
    all of the Biofuels Coalition’s assertions that the EPA acted arbitrarily and
    capriciously in granting the extension petitions. We hold that the agency did abuse
    its discretion, however, by failing to address the extent to which the three refineries
    were able to recoup their compliance costs by charging higher prices for the fuels
    they sell. The EPA has studied and staked out a policy position on this issue. One of
    the refineries expressly raised the issue in its extension petition. It was not
    reasonable for the agency to ignore it.
    I.    THE CLEAN AIR ACT, RENEWABLE FUELS, AND SMALL REFINERIES
    As background for our textual analysis, we briefly summarize the legislative
    and executive history of the pertinent amendments to the Clean Air Act, along with
    the law’s provisions relating to small refineries. We summarize EPA regulations and
    post-enactment legislative and executive branch pronouncements concerning these
    small refinery provisions as well. We then describe the orders issued by the EPA
    granting the three small refinery extension petitions at the heart of this case.
    A.     LEGISLATIVE AND EXECUTIVE HISTORY
    Congress changed the “Renewable Content of Gasoline” when it amended the
    Clean Air Act through the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (“Energy Policy Act”), Pub. L.
    No. 109-58, 119 Stat. 594. The Energy Policy Act directed the EPA to promulgate
    7
    regulations to ensure that gasoline sold or introduced into commerce in the United
    States included rising amounts of renewable fuel, going from four billion gallons in
    2006 to seven and a half billion gallons in 2012. 
    Id. §§ 1501(o)(2)(A)–(B).
    Renewable fuel targets for 2013 and beyond were to be determined later. 
    Id. § 1501(o)(2)(B)(ii).
    The statute also created a “Credit Program” under which fuel
    refiners, blenders, or importers could buy or sell compliance credits. 
    Id. § 1501(o)(5).
    The Energy Policy Act contained a “Temporary Exemption” until
    calendar year 2011 for small refineries, defined as those “for which the average
    aggregate daily crude oil throughput for a calendar year (as determined by dividing
    the aggregate throughput for the calendar year by the number of days in the calendar
    year) does not exceed 75,000 barrels.” 
    Id. §§ 1501(o)(1)(D),
    1501(o)(9)(A)(i). The
    statute instructed the EPA to extend this exemption for at least two years for any
    small refinery identified in an upcoming study by the Department of Energy (“DOE”)
    as suffering “disproportionate economic impact if required to comply[.]” 
    Id. §§ 1501(o)(9)(A)(ii)(I)–(II).
    Congressional reports on the proposals that became the Energy Policy Act
    foreshadowed these provisions. A House report stated that H.R. 1640 would increase
    the volume of renewable fuels from 3.1 billion gallons in 2005 to 5.0 billion gallons
    in 2012, and “would allow refineries, blenders, and importers to accumulate and trade
    credits[.]” H.R. Rep. No. 109-215, pt. 1, at 221, 270 (2005). A Senate report stated
    that a “major provision” of S. 10 would increase the volume of renewable fuels from
    four billion gallons in 2006 to eight billion gallons in 2012, with provisions relating
    8
    to “participation by small refiners” and “a fuel producer credit and trading program.”
    S. Rep. No. 109-78, at 2, 18–19 (2005). The reports from both chambers discussed
    the overall policy objectives of the legislation. See 
    id. at 1,
    6 (“The widening gap
    between supply and demand, accompanied by reliance on foreign sources to close
    that gap, has created profound concerns in the Congress over the nation’s energy
    security. . . . Coupled with those concerns is the recognition that meeting demand
    must be accomplished in an environmentally sound manner.”); H.R. Rep. No. 109-
    215, pt. 1, at 169 (“Energy security is critical in a world of growing demand and
    regional political instability. Dependence on any single source of energy, especially
    from a foreign country, leaves America vulnerable to price shocks and supply
    shortages.”).
    President George W. Bush signed the Energy Policy Act into law. He stated
    that the bill “will strengthen our economy, and it will improve our environment, and
    it’s going to make this country more secure.” Remarks on Signing the Energy Policy
    Act of 2005 in Albuquerque, New Mexico, 41 Weekly Comp. Pres. Doc. 1262 (Aug.
    8, 2005), reprinted in 2005 U.S.C.C.A.N. S17, S19. The President observed that
    “[t]he bill also will lead to a greater diversity of fuels for cars and trucks. The bill
    includes tax incentives for producers of ethanol and biodiesel. The bill includes a
    flexible, cost-effective renewable fuel standard that will double the amount of ethanol
    and biodiesel in our fuel supply over the next 7 years.” 
    Id. at 1264–65,
    S22. The
    President added that “[u]sing ethanol and biodiesel will leave our air cleaner. And
    every time we use a home-grown fuel, particularly these, we’re going to be helping
    9
    our farmers and, at the same time, be less dependent on foreign sources of energy.”
    
    Id. at 1265,
    S22.
    Congress expanded the provisions of the Energy Policy Act relating to
    renewable fuels – and further amended the Clean Air Act – through the Energy
    Independence and Security Act of 2007 (“Energy Independence and Security Act”),
    Pub. L. No. 110-140, 121 Stat. 1492. Those changes and others are now reflected in
    section 7545(o) of Title 42. The current version of the statute increases renewable
    fuel obligations in at least four categories: (1) renewable fuel, defined as “fuel that is
    produced from renewable biomass and that is used to replace or reduce the quantity
    of fossil fuel present in a transportation fuel,” is targeted to rise from four billion
    gallons in 2006 to 36 billion gallons in 2022, 42 U.S.C. §§ 7545(o)(1)(J),
    7545(o)(2)(B)(i)(I); (2) advanced biofuel, generally defined as renewable fuel “other
    than ethanol derived from corn starch” with lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions at
    least 50 percent less than baseline,1 is targeted to rise from 0.6 billion gallons in 2006
    to 21 billion gallons in 2022, 
    id. §§ 7545(o)(1)(B),
    7545(o)(2)(B)(i)(II); (3) cellulosic
    biofuel, defined as renewable fuel “derived from any cellulose, hemicellulose, or
    lignin that is derived from renewable biomass” with lifecycle greenhouse gas
    emissions at least 60 percent less than baseline, is targeted to rise from 0.1 billion
    gallons in 2010 to 16 billion gallons in 2022, 
    id. §§ 7545(o)(1)(E),
    1
    The statute defines “baseline lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions” as “the
    average lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions,” as determined by the EPA, for
    “gasoline or diesel (whichever is being replaced by the renewable fuel) sold or
    distributed as transportation fuel in 2005.” 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(1)(C).
    10
    7545(o)(2)(B)(i)(III); and (4) biomass-based diesel (“BBD”), defined with certain
    exceptions as renewable fuel that is “biodiesel” with lifecycle greenhouse gas
    emissions at least 50 percent less than baseline, was targeted to rise from 0.5 billion
    gallons in 2009 to one billion gallons in 2012, with volumes in later years to be set
    by the EPA in consultation with the DOE. 
    Id. §§ 7545(o)(1)(D),
    7545(o)(2)(B)(i)(IV), 7545(o)(2)(B)(ii).
    As amended, this portion of the Clean Air Act contains additional provisions
    on greenhouse gas emissions. For renewable fuel produced from new facilities
    commencing production after December 19, 2007, the law states that such fuel must
    achieve “at least a 20 percent reduction in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions
    compared to baseline lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.” 
    Id. § 7545(o)(2)(A)(i).
    Several emissions are each identified as a “greenhouse gas,” and the EPA is
    authorized to include, after notice and comment, “any other anthropogenically-
    emitted gas” determined “to contribute to global warming.” 
    Id. § 7545(o)(1)(H).
    The term “lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions,” in turn, is defined to include the
    aggregate quantity of emissions “related to the full fuel lifecycle” where “the mass
    values for all greenhouse gases are adjusted to account for their relative global
    warming potential.” 
    Id. The statute
    directs the EPA to issue regulations to ensure that the requirements
    of the law are met. 
    Id. § 7545(o)(2)(A)(iii).
    The statute also directs the EPA, after
    receiving an estimate of renewable fuel volumes from the Energy Information
    Administration (“EIA”) by October 31 of each year from 2005 through 2021, to
    11
    “determine and publish in the Federal Register” by November 30 of each year the
    renewable fuel obligations for the upcoming year. 
    Id. §§ 7545(o)(3)(A)–(B).
    The
    EPA expresses these obligations in terms of a “volume percentage” of transportation
    fuel sold or introduced into commerce in the United States. 
    Id. §§ 7545(o)(3)(B)(ii)(I)–(III).
    As discussed in more detail below, this process involves
    transforming aggregate volumes from the EIA into individual compliance
    obligations. The EPA estimates what percentage of the overall fuel supply each of
    the four renewable fuel types specified in the statute should constitute, and requires
    designated entities to replicate those percentages on an individual basis. The law
    states that yearly renewable fuel obligations are “applicable to refineries, blenders,
    and importers, as appropriate[.]” 
    Id. § 7545(o)(3)(B)(ii).
    The Energy Independence and Security Act continued the credit program
    established by the Energy Policy Act. The current version of the statute envisions the
    generation of credits for refined, blended, or imported gasoline with greater-than-
    required quantities of renewable fuel; for the use or transfer to another person of such
    credits; and for carrying forward a renewable fuel deficit in certain circumstances (a
    deficit that must be addressed “in the calendar year following the year in which the
    renewable fuel deficit is created”). 
    Id. §§ 7545(o)(5)(A)–(B),
    (D). The law states
    that a credit “shall be valid to show compliance for the 12 months as of the date of
    generation.” 
    Id. § 7545(o)(5)(C).
    The Energy Independence and Security Act also continued to make available a
    small refinery exemption. The definition of “small refinery” still looks to whether a
    12
    refinery has average aggregate daily crude oil throughput for a calendar year of
    75,000 barrels or less. 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(1)(K). The “Temporary exemption” was
    again written to apply to small refineries until 2011, with a minimum extension of the
    exemption of two years for any such refinery determined to be subject to a
    disproportionate economic hardship by a DOE study to be conducted no later than
    2008. 
    Id. §§ 7505(o)(9)(A)(i)–(ii).
    Small refineries continue to be able to petition
    the EPA “at any time” for an extension of this exemption. 
    Id. § 7545(o)(9)(B)(i).
    The EPA is obligated to “make adjustments” when determining the renewable fuel
    volume percentages for an upcoming calendar year to “account for the use of
    renewable fuel during the previous calendar year by small refineries that are
    exempt[.]” 
    Id. § 7545(o)(3)(C)(ii).
    Several supporters of the Energy Independence and Security Act in the Senate
    highlighted that the bill substantially increased renewable fuel requirements to
    promote energy independence and environmental stewardship. In the words of one
    legislator:
    To help reduce our dependence on imported oil, and on oil
    consumption, this bill strengthens the renewable fuels standard. It sets
    clear benchmarks for higher levels of production of biofuels made from
    corn as well as other feedstocks, including soybean oil, switchgrass, and
    other sources of energy that will be developed in the future. With this
    bill we will shift some of our energy reliance from the oilfields of the
    Middle East to the corn fields of the Midwest. The bill will ratchet up
    the schedule for the use of renewable fuels in our cars and trucks from
    the level of 7.5 billion gallons by 2012, as passed in the 2005 Energy
    Bill, to 15 billion gallons by 2015 and 36 billion gallons by 2022. That
    represents a major advance in our commitment to renewable, home
    grown fuels that reduce emissions, mitigate global warming, and
    improve farmer income.
    13
    153 Cong. Rec. S15421, S15429 (daily ed. Dec. 13, 2007) (statement of Sen.
    Durbin); see also 
    id. at S15428
    (statement of Sen. Johnson) (commenting that “[t]his
    bipartisan bill builds on the success of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which
    authorized the first nationwide renewable fuel standard, RFS,” that the bill will ramp
    up “the amount of ethanol and cellulosic ethanol produced in this country so that by
    2020 the United States will produce a minimum of 36 billion gallons of renewable
    fuels,” and that “[w]e are going to produce more fuel from renewable resources and
    over the long-term decrease the amount of fossil fuels we need to import from
    unstable regions of the globe”); 
    id. (statement of
    Sen. Cardin) (“H.R. 6 raises the
    annual requirement for the amount of renewable fuels used in cars and trucks to 36
    billion gallons by 2022. H.R. 6 makes a historic commitment to develop cellulosic
    ethanol by requiring that the United States produce 21 billion gallons of advanced
    biofuels, like cellulosic ethanol. Homegrown renewable fuels will replace the
    equivalent of all the oil we import from the Middle East today.”); 153 Cong. Rec.
    S15004, S15008 (daily ed. Dec. 7, 2007) (statement of Sen. Reid) (“This legislation
    makes an unprecedented commitment to American-grown biofuels by increasing the
    renewable fuels standard to 36 billion gallons by the year 2022, which will not just
    reduce our addiction to oil but create American jobs as well.”).
    Certain members of the House of Representatives likewise embraced the view
    that the substantial increase in renewable fuel utilization envisioned by the Energy
    Independence and Security Act would produce geopolitical and environmental
    14
    benefits. 153 Cong. Rec. H16659, H16744–45 (daily ed. Dec. 18, 2007) (statement
    of Rep. Jackson-Lee) (“[T]ransitioning from foreign oil to ethanol will protect our
    environment from dangerous carbon and greenhouse gas emissions. With its
    commitment to American biofuels, the legislation calls for a significant increase in
    the Renewable Fuels Standard. It encourages the diversification of American energy
    crops thus ensuring that biodiesel and cellulosic sources are key components in
    America’s drive to become energy independent.”); 
    id. at H16749
    (statement of Rep.
    Udall) (“And it will increase the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS), which sets annual
    requirements for the amount of renewable fuels produced and used in motor vehicles.
    The new RFS has specific requirements for the use of biodiesel and cellulosic sources
    to ensure that these ethanol sources also advance along with corn-based ethanol.
    Furthermore, the bill includes critical environmental safeguards to ensure that the
    growth of homegrown fuels helps to reduce carbon emissions.”); 153 Cong. Rec.
    H14434, H14437 (daily ed. Dec. 6, 2007) (statement of Rep. Conyers) (“The
    legislation before us today also reduces our dependence on foreign oil. The initiative
    includes a historic commitment to American biofuels that will fuel our cars and
    trucks.”); 
    id. at H14439
    (statement of Rep. Engel) (stating that the legislation makes
    “an historic commitment to American grown biofuels,” including an RFS “which will
    ensure that a percentage of our nation’s fuel supply will be provided by the domestic
    production of biofuels,” providing a pathway “for reduced consumer fuel prices,
    increased energy security, and growth in our nation’s factories and farms”).
    15
    The substantial increase in renewable fuel targets in the Energy Independence
    and Security Act also prompted some objections to the legislation. See, e.g., 153
    Cong. Rec. E2589, E2589–90 (daily ed. Dec. 17, 2007) (statement of Rep. Herger)
    (“H.R. 6 seeks to raise the current ethanol requirement by a factor of five. Such a
    dramatic increase, combined with growing demand for corn-fed meat products the
    world over, will likely result in even higher food prices for U.S. consumers.”); 153
    Cong. Rec. S15421, S15422–23 (daily ed. Dec. 13, 2007) (statement of Sen. Inhofe)
    (“The renewable fuels standard increase is going to mandate an increase from 7 ½ to
    15. That is of corn ethanol. Then other bio increases are more than that. . . . [T]he
    livestock and the poultry people . . . are very distressed because of the increase in the
    cost of feedstock. This is going to make it that much worse. There are other
    problems with that too, with ethanol’s effect on food prices: economic sustainability,
    transportation infrastructure needs, the water usage in that process.”); 153 Cong. Rec.
    H14434, 14441 (daily ed. Dec. 6, 2007) (statement of Rep. Goodlatte) (“This
    legislation would dramatically expand the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) by
    increasing it to 36 billion gallons by 2022. This initiative is extremely ambitious . . .
    . The RFS provisions create an unrealistic mandate for advanced biofuels technology
    that doesn’t yet exist and creates hurdles for the development of second generation
    biofuels . . . .”).
    The objections did not carry the day, and President George W. Bush signed the
    Energy Independence and Security Act into law. The President noted that when he
    endorsed the Energy Policy Act two years earlier, he understood “we needed to go
    16
    even further.” Statement by President George W. Bush Upon Signing H.R. 6 (Dec.
    19, 2007), reprinted in 2007 U.S.C.C.A.N. S25. He said the Energy Independence
    and Security Act was “a major step toward reducing our dependence on oil,
    confronting global climate change, expanding the production of renewable fuels and
    giving future generations of our country a nation that is stronger, cleaner and more
    secure.” 
    Id. He declared
    that “[t]he bill I sign today takes a significant step because
    it will require fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel in 2022.
    This is nearly a fivefold increase over current levels. It will help us diversify our
    energy supplies and reduce our dependence on oil. It’s an important part of this
    legislation, and I thank the members of Congress for your wisdom.” 
    Id. at S26.
    B.     REGULATIONS AND POST-ENACTMENT HISTORY
    The EPA has issued a number of regulations to implement the renewable fuels
    program. Although the statute refers to “refineries, blenders, and importers” in
    connection with yearly percentage volume requirements, 42 U.S.C. §
    7545(o)(3)(B)(ii), the EPA confines “obligated parties” to refiners and importers. 40
    C.F.R. § 80.1406(a)(1). The EPA has published the equations used to calculate the
    annual renewable fuel percentage standards, 
    id. § 80.1405(c),
    along with the formulas
    used to determine individual Renewable Volume Obligations (“RVOs”) as to the four
    categories of renewable fuels. 
    Id. § 80.1407(a).
    In general, an RVO for an obligated
    party is determined by applying an annual percentage requirement to the amount of
    non-renewable fuel produced or imported by that party, and then adding any deficit
    carryover from the previous year. 
    Id. 17 The
    EPA administers credits using a device known as a Renewable
    Identification Number (“RIN”). 
    Id. § 80.1401.
    The regulations describe how RINs
    are generated and assigned to batches of renewable fuel by producers and importers.
    
    Id. § 80.1426.
    Each party required to meet an RVO must demonstrate that it has
    “retired for compliance purposes” a sufficient number of RINs. 
    Id. § 80.1427(a)(1).
    This involves “separating” RINs by blending the renewable fuel with petroleum-
    based fuel, 
    id. § 80.1429,
    at which point the RINs may be “transferred any number of
    times.” 
    Id. § 80.1428(b)(3).
    RINs created by blending or purchase typically may
    only be used to demonstrate compliance “for the calendar year in which they were
    generated or the following calendar year.” 
    Id. § 80.1427(a)(6)(i).
    RINs used to show
    compliance in one year usually “cannot be used to demonstrate compliance in any
    other year.” 
    Id. § 80.1427(a)(6)(ii).
    A RIN is considered “expired” if not used
    during the year of its creation or the year after, and “an expired RIN will be
    considered an invalid RIN and cannot be used for compliance purposes.” 
    Id. § 80.1428(c).
    The EPA has regulations pertaining to the small refinery exemption as well.
    The regulations recognized an exemption in 2010 for each entity that met “the
    definition of small refinery” for “calendar year 2006.” 
    Id. § 80.1441(a)(1).
    The
    regulations stated that this exemption “shall be extended” for at least two years if a
    DOE study determined compliance would impose disproportionate economic
    hardship. 
    Id. § 80.1441(e)(1).
    The regulations indicate that a small refinery may
    petition for “an extension” of the exemption “at any time,” and that such a petition
    18
    must “specify the factors that demonstrate a disproportionate economic hardship;”
    provide a detailed discussion regarding “the hardship the refinery would face in
    producing” compliant transportation fuel; and identify “the date the refiner
    anticipates that compliance with the requirements can reasonably be achieved[.]” 
    Id. § 80.1441(e)(2)(i).
    In 2014, the EPA amended the regulations to change the
    definition of a small refinery (the “2014 Small Refinery Rule”):
    In order to qualify for an extension of its small refinery exemption, a
    refinery must meet the definition of “small refinery” in § 80.1401 for
    the most recent full calendar year prior to seeking an extension and must
    be projected to meet the definition of “small refinery” in § 80.1401 for
    the year or years for which an exemption is sought. Failure to meet the
    definition of small refinery for any calendar year for which an
    exemption was granted would invalidate the exemption for that calendar
    year.
    
    Id. § 80.1441(e)(2)(iii).
    At least since 2010, see 
    id. § 80.1405(a),
    the EPA has published lengthy
    documents setting yearly renewable fuel standards and explaining how the program
    works. These documents acknowledge that the program originated with the Energy
    Policy Act and was modified by the Energy Independence and Security Act. E.g.,
    Renewable Fuel Standard Program: Standards for 2018 and Biomass-Based Diesel
    Volume for 2019 (“EPA 2018 Standards”), 82 Fed. Reg. 58,486, 58,487 (Dec. 12,
    2017). They also acknowledge that the stated goals of the Energy Independence and
    Security Act included moving the country toward “greater energy independence and
    security [and] to increase the production of clean renewable fuels.” 
    Id. (brackets in
    original). “The fundamental objective of the RFS provisions under the CAA is clear:
    19
    To increase the use of renewable fuels in the U.S. transportation system every year
    through at least 2022 in order to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) and increase
    energy security.” Renewable Fuel Standard Program: Standards for 2014, 2015 and
    2016 and Biomass-Based Diesel Volume for 2017 (“EPA 2014-2016 Standards”), 80
    Fed. Reg. 77,420, 77,421 (Dec. 14, 2015).
    The EPA in recent years has announced volume requirements that are “lower
    than the statutory targets,” but the agency contends these targets “nevertheless will
    ensure these renewable fuels will continue to play a critical role as a complement to
    our petroleum-based fuels.” EPA 2018 Standards, 82 Fed. Reg. at 58,487. Starting
    no later than 2015, for instance, the EPA indicated that “challenges have made the
    volume targets established by Congress for 2014, 2015, and 2016 beyond reach.”
    EPA 2014-2016 Standards, 80 Fed. Reg. at 77,422. The EPA thus decided to apply
    “the tools Congress provided to make adjustments to the statutory volume targets in
    recognition of the constraints that exist today,”2 while at the same time retaining
    standards sufficient to “drive growth in renewable fuels, particularly advanced
    biofuels which achieve the lowest lifecycle GHG emissions.” 
    Id. at 77,423;
    see also
    Renewable Fuel Standard Program: Standards for 2017 and Biomass-Based Diesel
    2
    The statute contains several qualifications and waiver provisions. See, e.g.,
    42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(2)(B)(ii) (describing factors to be analyzed when setting
    renewable fuel volumes); 
    id. § 7545(o)(4)
    (identifying circumstances where
    greenhouse gas reduction percentages may be adjusted); 
    id. §§ 7545(o)(7)(A)–(C),
    (F) (allowing waivers based on severe harm to the economy or environment, or on
    inadequate domestic supply); 
    id. §§ 7545(o)(7)(D)–(E)
    (setting forth conditions
    under which volumes of cellulosic biofuel and biomass-based diesel must or may be
    reduced).
    20
    Volume for 2018, 81 Fed. Reg. 89,746, 89,747 (Dec. 12, 2016) (“The standards we
    are setting are designed to achieve the Congressional intent of increasing renewable
    fuel use over time in order to reduce lifecycle GHG emissions of transportation fuels
    and increase energy security, while at the same time accounting for real-world
    challenges that have slowed progress toward these goals.”).
    The EPA’s stated aim in harmonizing real-world constraints with aggressive
    statutory renewable fuel targets is to maintain the RFS program “as a market forcing
    policy.” EPA 2014-2016 Standards, 80 Fed. Reg. at 77,423. In the EPA’s words,
    “[t]he objective of the program is to introduce increasing volumes of renewable fuels,
    with a focus on cellulosic and other advanced renewable fuels, into the marketplace.
    Congress made the decision that this is an appropriate policy objective, and put in
    place a program to achieve that policy goal.” Id.; see also 
    id. (“The fact
    that
    Congress chose to mandate increasing and substantial amounts of renewable fuel
    clearly signals that it intended the RFS program to create incentives to increase
    renewable fuel supplies and overcome constraints in the market.”). The EPA has
    observed that (1) “Congress set targets that envisioned growth at a pace that far
    exceeded historical growth and prioritized that growth as occurring principally in
    advanced biofuels;” and (2) “[i]t is apparent, therefore, that Congress intended
    changes to the extent and pace of growth of renewable fuel use that would be
    unlikely to occur absent the new program.” 
    Id. at 77,432.
    The EPA has also reviewed how overall targets are translated into individual
    compliance requirements for obligated parties. According to the EPA:
    21
    Under the RFS program, EPA is required to determine and publish
    annual percentage standards for each compliance year. The percentage
    standards are calculated to ensure use in transportation fuel of the
    national “applicable volumes” of the four types of biofuels (cellulosic
    biofuel, BBD, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel) that are set
    forth in the statute or established by EPA in accordance with the Act’s
    requirements. The percentage standards are used by obligated parties
    (generally, producers and importers of gasoline and diesel fuel) to
    calculate their individual compliance obligations. Each of the four
    percentage standards is applied to the volume of non-renewable gasoline
    and diesel that each obligated party produces or imports during the
    specified calendar year to determine their individual volume obligations
    with respect to the four renewable fuel types. The individual volume
    obligations determine the number of Renewable Identification Numbers
    (RINs) of each renewable fuel type that each obligated party must
    acquire and retire to demonstrate compliance.
    EPA 2018 Standards, 82 Fed. Reg. at 58,488. The EPA maintains that “[t]he
    percentage standards are set so that if every obligated party meets the percentages by
    acquiring and retiring the appropriate number of RINs, then the amount of renewable
    fuel, cellulosic biofuel, BBD, and advanced biofuel used will meet the applicable
    volume requirements on a nationwide basis.” 
    Id. at 58,522.
    As to small refineries, the EPA’s standard-setting documents confirm that
    “Congress provided a temporary exemption” which could be extended beyond 2010
    “based either on the results of a required DOE study, or based on an EPA
    determination of ‘disproportionate economic hardship’ on a case-by-case basis in
    response to small refinery petitions.” EPA 2018 Standards, 82 Fed. Reg. at 58,523;
    see also Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: 2013 Renewable Fuel Standards
    (“EPA 2013 Standards”), 78 Fed. Reg. 49,794, 49,821 (Aug. 15, 2013) (“Congress
    provided two ways that small refineries can receive a temporary extension of the
    22
    exemption beyond 2010.”). As stated by the EPA, Congress “spoke directly to the
    relief that EPA may provide for small refineries,” and “limited that relief to a blanket
    exemption through December 31, 2010, with additional extensions if the criteria
    specified by Congress are met.” Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Changes to
    Renewable Fuel Standard Program, 75 Fed. Reg. 14,670, 14,736 (Mar. 26, 2010).
    The DOE issued a small refinery study in 2009. The study “did not find that
    small refineries would face a disproportionate economic hardship under the RFS
    program.” Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: 2012 Renewable Fuel Standards
    (“EPA 2012 Standards”), 77 Fed. Reg. 1,320, 1,339 (Jan. 9, 2012) (footnote omitted).
    The EPA understood that the conclusions of the 2009 DOE study “were based in part
    on the expected robust availability of RINs and EPA’s ability to grant relief on a
    case-by-case basis.” 
    Id. at 1,339–40.
    The EPA explained that as a result of the 2009
    study, “beginning in 2011 small refiners and small refineries were required to
    participate in the RFS program as obligated parties,” and “there was no small
    refiner/refinery volume adjustment to the 2011 standard as there was for the 2010
    standard.” 
    Id. at 1,340.
    A report from the Senate Committee on Appropriations criticized the DOE’s
    2009 study. The report stated that “[t]he Committee understands the study contained
    inadequate small refinery input, did not assess the economic condition of the small
    refining sector, take into account regional factors or accurately project RFS
    compliance costs.” S. Rep. No. 111-45, at 109 (2009). The Committee generally
    directed the DOE to “reopen and reassess the Small Refineries Exemption Study,”
    23
    and specifically directed the DOE to “seek and invite comment from small refineries
    on the RFS exemption hardship question, assess RFS compliance impacts on small
    refinery utilization rates and profitability, evaluate the financial health and ability of
    small refineries to meet RFS requirements, study small refinery impacts and regional
    dynamics by [Petroleum Administration for Defense District, or] PADD, and reassess
    the accuracy of small refinery compliance costs through the purchase of renewable
    fuel credits.” 
    Id. (brackets added).
    A House conference report added that “[t]he
    conferees support the study requested by the Senate on RFS and expect the
    Department to undertake the requested economic review.” H.R. Rep. No. 111-278, at
    126 (2009).
    The DOE issued a revised small refinery study in 2011. The EPA in 2012
    wrote that “DOE recently re-evaluated the impacts of the RFS program on small
    entities and concluded that 21 small refineries would suffer a disproportionate
    hardship if required to participate in the program. As a result, these refineries will be
    exempt from being obligated parties for a minimum of two additional years, 2011 and
    2012.” EPA 2012 Standards, 77 Fed. Reg. at 49,821 (footnotes omitted). The EPA
    currently says on its website that “[f]or 2011 and 2012, 24 small refineries were
    granted an exemption” under 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(9)(A)(ii). See RFS Small Refinery
    Exemptions, https://www.epa.gov/fuels-registration-reporting-and-compliance-
    help/rfs-small-refinery-exemptions (“Small Refinery Exemptions, EPA Website,” last
    visited January 17, 2020). The EPA cites the 2019 data from this website with
    approval in its appellate brief. EPA Respondent’s Br. at 12 n.1.
    24
    As directed, one of the steps the DOE took to revisit the issue of
    disproportionate economic hardship was to survey small refineries. Small Refinery
    Exemption Study: An Investigation into Disproportionate Economic Hardship (“2011
    DOE Study”), U.S. Department of Energy (Mar. 2011, redacted), Administrative
    Record volume 1 (“REC1”) at 483, 489–90. With those survey results in hand, the
    DOE concluded that “[d]isproportionate economic hardship must encompass two
    broad components: a high cost of compliance relative to the industry average, and an
    effect sufficient to cause a significant impairment of the refinery operations.” 
    Id. at 495.
    The DOE created scoring matrixes to reflect these two categories. 
    Id. at 495,
    523–28. The first matrix contains scoring for “Disproportionate Structural Impact
    Metrics” (with categories for access to capital/credit, other business lines besides
    refining and marketing, local market acceptance of renewables, percentage of diesel
    production, and exceptional state regulations) and “Disproportionate Economic
    Impact Metrics” (with categories for relative refining margin measure, renewable fuel
    blending as a percentage of production, operation in a niche market, and RINs net
    revenue or cost). 
    Id. at 525–27.
    The second matrix contains scoring for “Viability
    Metrics” (with categories for compliance costs eliminating efficiency gains,
    individual special events, and compliance costs being likely to lead to a shutdown).
    
    Id. at 528;
    see also Addendum to the Small Refinery Exemption Study: An
    Investigation into Disproportionate Economic Hardship, U.S. Department of Energy
    (May 2014), REC1 at 583–85 (explaining scoring changes with respect to the
    viability matrix).
    25
    In late 2015, Congress provided an explanatory statement on the 2016
    Consolidated Appropriations Act concerning the DOE’s scoring system. Noting that
    the DOE’s 2011 study set forth “two broad components” for disproportionate
    economic hardship – “a high cost of compliance relative to the industry average
    disproportionate impacts” and “an effect sufficient to cause significant impairment of
    the refinery operations viability” – the explanatory statement provided that if the
    Secretary of Energy “finds that either of these two components exists, the Secretary
    is directed to recommend to the EPA Administrator a 50 percent waiver of RFS
    requirements for the petitioner.” 161 Cong. Rec. H9693, H10105 (daily ed. Dec. 17,
    2015). The explanatory statement further provided that a small refinery with profits
    sufficient to cover RFS compliance costs might nonetheless be subject to a
    disproportionate economic hardship:
    [T]he dramatic rise in RIN prices has amplified RFS compliance and
    competitive disparities, especially where unique regional factors exist,
    including high diesel demand, no export access, and limited biodiesel
    infrastructure and production. In response to recent petitions, the
    Secretary determined that the RFS program would impose a
    disproportionate economic and structural impact on several small
    refineries. Despite this determination, the Secretary did not
    recommend, and EPA did not provide, any RFS relief because it
    determined the refineries were profitable enough to afford the cost of
    RFS compliance without substantially impacting their viability. The
    Secretary is reminded that the RFS program may impose a
    disproportionate economic hardship on a small refinery even if the
    refinery makes enough profit to cover the cost of complying with the
    program. Small refinery profitability does not justify a disproportionate
    regulatory burden where Congress has explicitly given EPA authority,
    in consultation with the Secretary, to reduce or eliminate this burden.
    
    Id. 26 A
    2016 Senate report on appropriations for various agencies contained similar
    observations. The Senate report commented that “[i]n response to several recent
    petitions,” the EPA had “determined that compliance with the RFS would have a
    disproportionate economic impact on a small refinery, but denied hardship relief
    because the small refinery remained profitable notwithstanding the disproportionate
    economic impact.” S. Rep. No. 114-281, at 70 (2016). The report indicated that
    “[t]his is inconsistent with congressional intent because the statute does not
    contemplate that a small refinery would only be able to obtain an exemption by
    showing that the RFS program threatens its viability. Congress explicitly authorized
    the Agency to grant small refinery hardship relief to ensure that small refineries
    remain both competitive and profitable.” Id.; see also 
    id. (intimating that
    “small
    entities cannot remain competitive and profitable if they face disproportionate
    structural or economic metrics such as limitations on access to capital, lack of other
    business lines, disproportionate production of diesel fuel, or other site specific
    factors”). In a separate explanatory statement on an agreement regarding
    appropriations amendments, the House echoed that “[t]he agreement includes the
    directive contained in Senate Report 114-281 related to small refinery relief.” 163
    Cong. Rec. H3327, H3884 (daily ed. May 3, 2017) (statement of Rep.
    Frelinghuysen).
    Beginning in 2016, the EPA began granting more petitions to extend the small
    refinery exemption. Table 2 on the EPA’s website indicates that while the agency
    granted 23 of 41 extension petitions from 2013-2015 (reflecting an approval rate of
    27
    approximately 56%, as two petitions were declared ineligible or withdrawn), the
    agency granted 85 of 94 extension petitions from 2016-2018 (reflecting an approval
    rate of approximately 90%, as five petitions were declared ineligible or withdrawn):
    Number                    Number      Number of
    of        Number          of          Petitions    Number of Number of
    Compliance Petitions of Grants       Denials     Declared     Petitions Pending
    Year       Received Issued           Issued      Ineligible   Withdrawn Petitions
    2013          16          8          7           0            1             0
    2014          13          8          5           0            0             0
    2015          14          7          6           1            0             0
    2016          20          19         1           0            0             0
    2017          37          35         1           0            1             0
    2018          42          31         6           2            3             0
    2019          21          0          0           0            0             21
    Small Refinery Exemptions, EPA Website (data as of January 16, 2020); see also
    Renewable Fuel Standard Program: Standards for 2019 and Biomass-Based Diesel
    Volume for 2020 (“EPA 2019 Standards”), 83 Fed. Reg. 63,704, 63,707 (Dec. 11,
    2018) (stating that in response to comments suggesting increased disclosure of “data
    related to the RIN market,” the EPA “made additional information available through
    our public website,” including “the number of small refinery exemption petitions
    received, granted, and denied by year”). The EPA granted 19 of 20 small refinery
    extension petitions in 2016, 35 of 36 eligible and maintained petitions in 2017, and
    31 of 37 eligible and maintained petitions in 2018. Small Refinery Exemptions, EPA
    Website.
    As the number of granted petitions began to rise, so too did the amount of fuel
    exempted from the amended Clean Air Act’s renewable fuels targets. Table 1 on the
    28
    EPA’s website reveals not only that exempted volumes of gasoline and diesel went
    from approximately 2 billion gallons in 2013 to a peak of 17 billion gallons in 2017
    (with more than 13 billion exempted gallons in 2018), but also that exempted RVOs
    went from approximately 190 million RINs in 2013 to an apex of 1.8 billion RINs in
    2017 (with more than 1.4 billion exempted RINs in 2018):
    Estimated Volumes of Gasoline            Estimated Renewable
    Compliance        and Diesel Exempted (million             Volume Obligations (RVO)
    Year              gallons)                                 Exempted (million RINs)
    2013              1,980                                    190
    2014              2,300                                    210
    2015              3,070                                    290
    2016              7,840                                    790
    2017              17,050                                   1,820
    2018              13,420                                   1,430
    2019              0                                        0
    
    Id. (rounded to
    the nearest 10 million gallons or RINs).
    If any small refinery petitions to extend the temporary exemption are granted
    after the announcement of the applicable percentage standards for a given year, the
    EPA does not modify the standards to account for the exemptions. The EPA has
    followed this policy at least from 2011 through 2018, reasoning that “the Act is best
    interpreted to require issuance of a single annual standard in November that is
    applicable in the following calendar year, thereby providing advance notice and
    certainty to obligated parties regarding their regulatory requirements.” Regulation of
    Fuels and Fuel Additives: 2011 Renewable Fuel Standards (“EPA 2011 Standards”),
    75 Fed. Reg. 76,790, 76,804 (Dec. 9, 2010). The EPA says that “[p]eriodic revisions
    to the standards to reflect waivers issued to small refineries or refiners would be
    29
    inconsistent with the statutory text, and would introduce an undesirable level of
    uncertainty for obligated parties.” Id.; see also EPA 2018 Standards, 82 Fed. Reg. at
    58,523 (“EPA is maintaining its approach that any exemptions for 2018 that are
    granted after the final rule is released will not be reflected in the percentage standards
    that apply to all gasoline and diesel produced or imported in 2018.”). The EPA
    recognizes that “any exemption for a small refinery will result in a proportionally
    higher percentage standard for remaining obligated parties,” and that “this will affect
    the degree to which individual obligated parties can acquire sufficient RINs for
    compliance through blending ethanol into gasoline that they produce.” EPA 2011
    Standards, 75 Fed. Reg. at 76,805.
    C.     THE EXEMPTION EXTENSION PETITIONS
    The EPA is required to consider DOE studies and other economic factors when
    assessing small refinery petitions. 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(9)(B)(ii). Operating within
    this framework, the EPA received and evaluated the three extension petitions at issue
    in this case. HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining LLC (“Cheyenne”) submitted a
    petition in March 2017. Administrative Record volume 2 (“REC2”) at 589–610.
    HollyFrontier Woods Cross Refining LLC (“Woods Cross”) submitted a petition in
    September 2017. 
    Id. at 648–63.
    Wynnewood Refining Company, LLC
    (“Wynnewood”) submitted a petition in January 2018. 
    Id. at 686–731.
    The petitions
    for these three refineries (“the Refineries”) are discussed in more detail below.
    As a prelude, we describe how information identified by the parties as
    confidential has been handled. As noted infra in § II, the Refineries requested
    30
    confidentiality when they submitted their extension petitions to the EPA. The parties
    continued on appeal to seek confidential treatment of certain business information.
    In a series of orders, this court provisionally granted the parties’ request for a
    protective order, along with the parties’ requests to file particular briefs and record
    materials under seal. In each of those orders, the court explained that it retained
    discretion to revisit the issues. At the court’s prompting, the Refineries later
    indicated whether they objected to the disclosure of several specific facts.
    The court is honoring most – but not all – of the Refineries’ confidentiality
    objections. The court is also maintaining the confidential status of any previously-
    sealed document. The court has kept in mind 5 U.S.C. § 552(b)(4), which contains a
    disclosure exemption for privileged or confidential “trade secrets and commercial or
    financial information,” as well as 40 C.F.R. § 2.208, which states that “business
    information is entitled to confidential treatment” if various requirements are met.
    Any instance in this opinion in which the court parts company with the parties on
    confidentiality is based both on these standards and on the “strong presumption”
    under the common law “in favor of public access.” United States v. Pickard, 
    733 F.3d 1297
    , 1302 (10th Cir. 2013) (citation omitted); see also Colony Ins. Co. v.
    Burke, 
    698 F.3d 1222
    , 1241 (10th Cir. 2012) (commenting that this presumption
    “may be overcome where countervailing interests heavily outweigh the public
    interests in access”) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted).
    31
    1.     CHEYENNE
    According to the petition submitted on behalf of Cheyenne in 2017, the
    refinery employs approximately 300 people in Wyoming. REC2 at 590. Because it
    was identified in the DOE’s 2011 study as being subject to disproportionate
    economic hardship, Cheyenne was granted an extension of the small refinery
    exemption through 2012. 
    Id. Cheyenne did
    not apply for or did not receive an
    extension of the exemption in 2013 and 2014. 
    Id. at 638
    n.13. Cheyenne applied to
    extend the exemption in 2015, but the EPA denied the petition. 
    Id. at 590,
    638 n.13.
    On appeal, this court granted an unopposed motion by the EPA to vacate the denial
    and remand the matter to the agency for further proceedings consistent with Sinclair
    Wyo. Refining Co. v. EPA, 
    874 F.3d 1159
    (10th Cir. 2017). The parties have not
    discussed the subsequent proceedings, but we assume for purposes of this opinion
    that Cheyenne’s 2015 petition was granted on remand. See infra § II (summarizing
    post-Sinclair events in the context of redressability).
    Cheyenne contended in its 2017 petition that renewable fuel compliance in
    2016 would impose disproportionate economic hardship. Cheyenne emphasized that
    it focused on diesel (normally blended with less renewable fuel than gasoline) and
    otherwise had limited blending abilities, in contrast to some “larger, more
    competitive refineries.” REC2 at 592–93. Cheyenne argued that “[t]he cost of RIN
    purchases and the poor economics of biodiesel blending threaten the viability of the
    Cheyenne refinery[.]” 
    Id. at 593.
    Cheyenne described the expenses it believed
    would arise out of RFS compliance in 2016, consisting of blending costs and RIN
    32
    purchase costs. 
    Id. at 593,
    596. Cheyenne averred that it had no other business lines
    besides refining and marketing, that it had an operating loss and an asset impairment
    in 2016, that it had relatively thin margins over the past three years, and that it did
    not operate in a niche market. 
    Id. at 595–97.
    The DOE applied its scoring criteria and recommended denying Cheyenne’s
    request for an extension of the small refinery exemption in 2016. 
    Id. at 627–28.
    The
    DOE gave Cheyenne “a score of 0.9 in the structural and economic metric and a
    score of 0.0 in the viability metric.” 
    Id. at 628.
    The DOE concluded that “the
    HollyFrontier Cheyenne refinery had positive refining margins and RFS compliance
    would not appear, based on the data we analyzed, to threaten the refinery’s economic
    viability.” 
    Id. The EPA
    declined to follow the DOE’s recommendation and granted
    Cheyenne’s petition. 
    Id. at 614,
    629–46. The EPA acknowledged that “it has been
    found that a refinery does not experience disproportionate economic hardship simply
    because it may need to purchase a significant percentage of its RINs for compliance
    from other parties, even though RIN prices have increased since the DOE study,
    because the RIN prices lead to higher sales prices obtained for the refineries’
    blendstock, resulting in no net cost of compliance for the refinery.” 
    Id. at 634
    n.5
    (emphasis in original). The EPA also acknowledged that the DOE did not find
    “disproportionate economic and structural impacts and the Cheyenne Refinery.” 
    Id. at 645.
    After summarizing Cheyenne’s financial history, however, 
    id. at 637–42,
    the
    EPA determined that the refinery “would suffer a disproportionate economic hardship
    33
    if it had to comply with the RFS obligations for 2016 and should be granted full
    relief.” 
    Id. at 646.
    In granting the petition, the EPA reasoned that “for a refinery like the
    Cheyenne Refinery, its disproportionate economic hardship may be the result of other
    economic factors, including a difficult year for the industry as a whole.” 
    Id. at 645.
    The EPA found that Cheyenne’s financial performance showed the refinery would
    disproportionately suffer “from compliance with RFS obligations.” 
    Id. The EPA
    discussed Cheyenne’s financial performance in 2016, Cheyenne’s cash flow from
    2014-2016, Cheyenne’s net refining margin in 2016, and Cheyenne’s three-year
    average net refining margin. 
    Id. at 640,
    645.
    In the process of adjudicating Cheyenne’s petition, the EPA acknowledged it
    was generally altering its methodology. The agency stated “[i]n prior decisions, EPA
    considered that a small refinery could not show disproportionate economic hardship
    without showing an effect on ‘viability,’ but we are changing our approach.” 
    Id. at 636
    n.10. The agency explained that “[w]hile a showing of a significant impairment
    of refinery operations may help establish disproportionate economic hardship,
    compliance with RFS obligations may impose a disproportionate economic hardship
    when it is disproportionately difficult for a refinery to comply with its RFS
    obligations – even if the refinery’s operations are not significantly impaired.” 
    Id. at 636
    n.10, 646 n.41.
    34
    2.     WOODS CROSS
    The 2017 petition submitted on behalf of Woods Cross stated that the refinery
    has 285 employees and 70 full-time contractors in Utah. 
    Id. at 648–49.
    The petition
    asserted neither that Woods Cross was identified as being subject to disproportionate
    economic hardship in the DOE’s 2011 study, nor that Woods Cross previously sought
    or received other extensions of the small refinery exemption. 
    Id. at 648–53.
    Woods
    Cross declared that compliance with RFS in 2016 would impose disproportionate
    economic hardship because the refinery has no other lines of business and cannot
    blend the full amount of required renewable fuel, because “there is still some
    resistance to the acceptance of biodiesel” in Woods Cross’s market, and because
    buying RINs “adds a heavy financial burden to the refinery and renders it
    economically inefficient relative to its competition.” 
    Id. at 649–52.
    Woods Cross
    described what it believed its compliance costs for 2016 would be, tallying up RIN
    purchases and blending costs. 
    Id. at 652.
    The DOE recommended granting Woods Cross’s petition in part. 
    Id. at 678–
    79. The DOE gave Woods Cross “a score of 1.9 in the structural and economic
    metric and a score of 0.0 in the viability metric.” 
    Id. at 679.
    The DOE found that
    Woods Cross “did not have negative refining margins while making significant
    refinery investments, thus RFS compliance would not appear, based on the data we
    analyzed, to threaten the refinery’s economic viability.” 
    Id. Because Woods
    Cross
    scored above 1.0 in the first metric, the DOE suggested that EPA consider a “50
    percent exemption from the 2016 RFS[.]” 
    Id. 35 The
    EPA granted Woods Cross’s petition and awarded a full extension of the
    small refinery exemption, rather than a partial extension of the exemption. 
    Id. at 665,
    680–85. The EPA noted this court held in Sinclair that the agency’s previous
    viability requirement for “disproportionate economic hardship” was “at odds with
    Congress’s statutory command.” 
    Id. at 681–82
    (citation omitted); see also 
    Sinclair, 887 F.3d at 988
    (“[T]he EPA has exceeded its statutory authority under the CAA in
    interpreting the hardship exemption to require a threat to a refinery’s survival as an
    ongoing operation.”). The agency recounted, however, that “prior to this ruling, EPA
    had already changed its approach for the 2016 small refinery petitions issued in May
    2017.” REC2 at 682. The agency clarified that it had determined disproportionate
    economic hardship “can exist on the basis of adverse structural conditions alone. A
    difficult year for the refining industry as a whole may exacerbate economic problems
    for small refineries that face disproportionate impacts.” Id.; see also 
    id. (stating that
    the “industry-wide downward trend” of lower net refining margins “can result in
    tangible effects on small refineries with adverse structural conditions”).
    The EPA concluded that in combination with other factors, unfavorable
    structural conditions for Woods Cross warranted “100% relief.” 
    Id. at 682,
    684. The
    EPA drew attention to limitations on the refinery’s blending capabilities, and
    addressed Woods Cross’s net refining margins and financial performance in 2015 and
    2016. 
    Id. at 684.
    This analysis led the EPA to decide that “the Woods Cross
    Refinery will experience [disproportionate economic hardship] that can be relieved in
    whole or in part by removing its RFS obligations for 2016.” 
    Id. (brackets added).
    36
    3.     WYNNEWOOD
    The petition submitted on behalf of Wynnewood in 2018 described that
    refinery as having more than 300 employees and more than 250 full-time contractors
    in Oklahoma. 
    Id. at 688.
    The petition stated that Wynnewood received an extension
    of the blanket exemption in 2011 and 2012, but “has not received hardship relief
    since 2012.” 
    Id. at 687.
    Wynnewood described what it believed RFS compliance
    costs would be, and compared those costs to the refinery’s other operating expenses.
    
    Id. at 688–89,
    694. In light of the refinery’s financial performance in 2017,
    Wynnewood claimed the RFS compliance costs would impose disproportionate
    economic hardship. 
    Id. at 689.
    The Wynnewood petition addressed all of the factors in the DOE’s scoring
    matrixes. As to structural and economic factors, Wynnewood presented arguments
    concerning (1) access to capital or credit; (2) other lines of business; (3) the market
    for the relevant blended renewable fuels; (4) the refinery’s proportion of diesel fuel;
    (5) the refinery’s net refining margins in 2015 and 2016, along with a three-year
    average margin; (6) the presence or absence of a niche market; and (7) the possibility
    of “passing through” RIN expenses to customers. 
    Id. at 689–96.
    As to viability,
    Wynnewood again referenced the metric of average net refining margin, and gave the
    EPA an assessment of competitiveness and profitability. 
    Id. at 696.
    Similar to Woods Cross, the DOE recommended “a 50 percent exemption from
    the 2017 RFS” for Wynnewood. 
    Id. at 736.
    The DOE scored Wynnewood on
    structural, economic, and viability metrics. 
    Id. The DOE
    stated that “the refinery
    37
    has positive refining margins and RFS compliance would not appear, based on the
    data we analyzed, to threaten the refinery’s economic viability.” 
    Id. Nonetheless, based
    on structural and economic factors, the DOE suggested that the EPA grant a
    partial extension of the small refinery exemption. 
    Id. The EPA
    granted Wynnewood’s petition and fully extended the exemption for
    2017. 
    Id. at 733,
    737–41. The EPA explained that “[i]n previous year decisions,
    DOE and EPA considered that [disproportionate economic hardship] exists only
    when a refinery experiences both disproportionate impacts and viability impairment.”
    
    Id. at 738
    (brackets added). The EPA continued that in response to concerns that the
    threshold for establishing disproportionate economic hardship was “too stringent,”
    Congress clarified that such hardship “can exist if DOE finds that a small refinery is
    experiencing either disproportionate impacts or viability impairment.” 
    Id. (emphasis in
    original). Once again, the EPA stated that hardship “can exist on the basis of
    adverse structural conditions alone,” and a difficult year “may exacerbate economic
    problems for small refineries that face disproportionate impacts[.]” 
    Id. at 738
    –39.
    The EPA thus decided that unfavorable structural conditions and other factors
    justified “100% relief” for Wynnewood. 
    Id. at 739–41.
    The EPA focused on
    Wynnewood’s financial performance in 2016 and the first three quarters of 2017,
    coupled with Wynnewood’s net refining margins. 
    Id. at 741.
    The EPA concluded by
    stating that Wynnewood would experience disproportionate economic hardship which
    “can be relieved in whole or in part by removing its RFS obligations for 2017.” 
    Id. II. THE
    BIOFUELS COALITION’S STANDING TO SUE
    38
    Although the EPA does not challenge the Biofuels Coalition’s standing to sue,
    the Refineries do. Addressing those arguments requires an understanding of the four
    organizations that make up the Biofuels Coalition. The first organization is the
    Renewable Fuels Association (“RFA”), a trade association for the ethanol industry.
    Geoff Cooper Declaration (“Cooper Decl.”) ¶ 2. RFA members include “companies
    that manufacture and market ethanol fuel to blenders and marketers of gasoline, as
    well as companies that provide goods and services (such as process technologies and
    raw feedstocks) to ethanol producers.” 
    Id. Through its
    President and Chief
    Executive Officer, RFA avers that its members “operate facilities in 24 states, from
    California to New York, and are responsible for the production of almost a third of
    the ethanol sold in the United States.” 
    Id. ¶¶ 2–3.
    The second organization is the
    American Coalition for Ethanol (“ACE”), another ethanol advocacy group. Brian
    Jennings Declaration (“Jennings Decl.”) ¶ 2. It also counts as members both
    producers and other companies that support the industry. 
    Id. ¶ 2
    & Ex. A. Through
    its Chief Executive Officer, the organization attests that “[m]any of ACE’s members”
    produce ethanol, and “[o]ther members grow crops, primarily corn, that are used in
    the production of renewable fuels.” 
    Id. ¶¶ 7–8.
    The other two Biofuels Coalition members are similar, but even more focused
    on feedstocks. The third organization is the National Farmers Union (“NFU”), an
    advocacy group for “family farmers, ranchers and rural communities[.]” Roger
    Johnson Declaration (“Johnson Decl.”) ¶ 2. According to the group’s President,
    39
    “NFU’s members include family farmers and growers of crops such as corn and
    soybeans[.]” 
    Id. ¶¶ 2–4.
    NFU further declares that “[c]orn is used to produce most
    of the non-advanced portion of renewable fuels (conventional renewable fuel), and
    soybeans are used to produce biomass-based diesel.” 
    Id. ¶ 5.
    The fourth
    organization is the National Corn Growers Association (“NCGA”). NCGA’s Chief
    Executive Officer declares that the association “represents more than 40,000 dues-
    paying corn farmers nationwide and more than 300,000 corn growers who contribute
    to NCGA through the corn programs (known as ‘checkoff’ programs) in their states.”
    Jon Doggett Declaration (“Doggett Decl.”) ¶¶ 1–3, 5. NCGA reiterates that “[c]orn
    is used as a feedstock to make ethanol[.]” 
    Id. ¶ 6.
    The Constitution specifies that the “judicial Power of the United States”
    extends only to “Cases” and “Controversies.” U.S. Const. art. III, §§ 1–2. Standing
    to sue “is a doctrine rooted in the traditional understanding” of those terms. Spokeo,
    Inc. v. Robins, 
    136 S. Ct. 1540
    , 1547 (2016). The doctrine “requires federal courts to
    satisfy themselves that the plaintiff has alleged such a personal stake in the outcome
    of the controversy so as to warrant his invocation of federal-court jurisdiction.”
    Summers v. Earth Island Inst., 
    555 U.S. 488
    , 493 (2009) (citation and internal
    quotation marks omitted, emphasis in original). By limiting the category of litigants
    empowered to maintain a federal lawsuit, the law of Article III standing “serves to
    prevent the judicial process from being used to usurp the powers of the political
    branches, and confines the federal courts to a properly judicial role.” Spokeo, 136 S.
    Ct. at 1547 (citations and internal quotation marks omitted).
    40
    The “irreducible constitutional minimum” of standing is threefold. Lujan v.
    Defenders of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 560 (1992). “The plaintiff must have (1)
    suffered an injury in fact, (2) that is fairly traceable to the challenged conduct of the
    defendant, and (3) that is likely to be redressed by a favorable judicial decision.”
    
    Spokeo, 136 S. Ct. at 1547
    . An injury in fact must be not only “concrete and
    particularized,” but also “actual or imminent,” as opposed to “conjectural” or
    “hypothetical.” 
    Lujan, 504 U.S. at 560
    (citations and internal quotation marks
    omitted). “Although the ‘traceability’ of a plaintiff’s harm to the defendant’s actions
    need not rise to the level of proximate causation, Article III does require proof of a
    substantial likelihood that the defendant’s conduct caused the plaintiff’s injury in
    fact.” Habecker v. Town of Estes Park, Colo., 
    518 F.3d 1217
    , 1225 (10th Cir. 2008)
    (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). And “[t]o demonstrate redressability,
    a party must show that a favorable court judgment is likely to relieve the party’s
    injury.” WildEarth Guardians v. Pub. Serv. Comm’n of Colo., 
    690 F.3d 1174
    , 1182
    (10th Cir. 2012) (citation omitted).
    “The party invoking federal jurisdiction bears the burden of establishing”
    standing. 
    Lujan, 504 U.S. at 561
    . Each element “must be supported in the same way
    as any other matter on which the plaintiff bears the burden of proof, i.e., with the
    manner and degree of evidence required at the successive stages of the litigation.”
    
    Id. On a
    direct appeal from an administrative decision, the complainant “must
    produce evidence on each element of standing as if it were moving for summary
    judgment in district court.” N. Laramie Range Alliance v. FERC, 
    733 F.3d 1030
    ,
    41
    1034 (10th Cir. 2013). If a counterparty contests these facts, the complainant will not
    enjoy “the benefit of any inference” and must discharge its burden under a
    preponderance-of-the-evidence standard. 
    Id. (citation omitted).
    The evidence must
    show that the complainant “had standing when it filed its petition for review.” 
    Id. An association
    seeking to invoke federal court jurisdiction must make a further
    showing. The association must demonstrate that “its members would otherwise have
    standing to sue in their own right;” “the interests it seeks to protect are germane to
    the organization’s purpose;” and “neither the claim asserted nor the relief requested
    requires the participation of individual members in the lawsuit.” Hunt v. Wash. State
    Apple Advert. Comm’n, 
    432 U.S. 333
    , 343 (1977). Because the Refineries in this
    case do not challenge the latter two components, we focus on the core elements of
    standing, keeping in mind that “the gist of the question” is whether members of the
    Biofuels Coalition “have such a personal stake in the outcome of the controversy as
    to assure that concrete adverseness which sharpens the presentation of issues upon
    which the court so largely depends for illumination.” Massachusetts v. EPA, 
    549 U.S. 497
    , 517 (2007) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). We also
    recognize that “when the plaintiff is not himself the object of the government action
    or inaction he challenges, standing is not precluded, but it is ordinarily substantially
    more difficult to establish.” 
    Summers, 555 U.S. at 494
    (citation and internal
    quotation marks omitted).
    The Biofuels Coalition principally relies on an affidavit and a report from
    RFA’s chief economist to prove standing. Scott Richman Declaration (“Richman
    42
    Decl.”) ¶¶ 1–5. The economist provides his estimation, in gallons, of total renewable
    fuel obligations for Cheyenne and Woods Cross in 2016 and Wynnewood in 2017.
    
    Id. ¶ 10.
    He then identifies, as a percentage, what the extensions granted to the
    Refineries represent in terms of all exempted volumes. Scott Richman Report
    (“Richman Report”) at 3, 12–13, 17. He observes that the EPA reinstated the RINs
    Cheyenne and Woods Cross had previously retired for compliance purposes in 2016,
    and he appears to assume the agency simply relieved Wynnewood of its RIN
    retirement obligation in 2017. Richman Decl. ¶¶ 12, 23. He then opines that the
    Refineries can “use these reinstated RINs in many ways,” including selling the RINs
    to other obligated parties or using the RINs to satisfy RVOs for other refineries
    owned by the same corporate parent. 
    Id. ¶¶ 13,
    23. He maintains that the Refineries’
    sale or use of these RINs to establish compliance inflicts “economic harm” on
    members of the Biofuels Coalition, because obligated parties use such RINs “instead
    of blending ethanol or obtaining RINs representing additional blending from other
    parties.” 
    Id. ¶¶ 9,
    23.
    RFA’s economist bases this conclusion on an industry-wide analysis of the
    effects of the 48 small refinery exemption extensions granted overall for 2016 and
    2017, as well as the effects of the three exemption extensions at issue in this case. 
    Id. ¶¶ 5,
    18, 21. He observes that there are approximately 2.59 billion carryover RINs
    available to meet 2019 renewable fuel volume requirements, and he attributes most of
    these carryover RINs to the 48 extensions. 
    Id. ¶ 15
    & n.6 (citing an earlier
    publication of the EPA 2019 Standards, 83 Fed. Reg. at 63,709); Richman Report at 9
    43
    & n.10 (same). This, according to the economist, has “contributed to reduced
    demand and lower per-gallon prices for ethanol. These factors have resulted in lower
    revenues received by RFA’s ethanol producing members.” Richman Decl. ¶ 5;
    Richman Report at 1. In particular, he states that extensions in the aggregate have
    caused the ethanol “blend rate,” or ethanol’s average inclusion in the nation’s
    gasoline supply, to fall by 162 million gallons from February 2018 to August 2018.
    Richman Decl. ¶ 16; Richman Report at 1, 9–11, 24–25. Valuing ethanol at $1.45
    per gallon during this time period, he asserts that the drop in the blend rate resulted in
    an estimated $233 million revenue reduction for the industry and an estimated $68
    million revenue reduction for RFA members. Richman Decl. ¶ 17; Richman Report
    at 16–17. For this same time period, he calculates estimated revenue reductions for
    the industry overall and for RFA members due to the Refineries’ extensions.
    Richman Decl. ¶ 18; Richman Report at 17.
    RFA’s economist claims these numbers are conservative. He reasons that the
    foregoing numbers understate the economic injury to the Biofuels Coalition because
    “the reduction in demand has forced RFA members and other producers to sell
    ethanol at lower prices than that which they would receive” had small refinery
    extensions not been granted. Richman Decl. ¶ 19; Richman Report at 17–19. He
    attests that ethanol prices would have been $0.08 per gallon higher in February 2018
    absent these extensions, and $0.34 per gallon higher by June 2018 “given the
    continued effect on consumption[.]” Richman Decl. ¶ 20; Richman Report at 2–3,
    19. “Without adjusting for any possible increase in production due to increased
    44
    consumption that would have occurred” in the absence of the 48 small refinery
    extensions, he argues, from February to August 2018 the annualized impact on
    industry revenues was $4 billion and the annualized impact on RFA members’
    revenues was $1.2 billion. Richman Report at 19–20. He closes by attributing a
    substantial amount of “unrealized value” across the industry – and a specific amount
    of “unrealized value” for RFA members – to the Refineries’ exemptions. Richman
    Decl. ¶ 21; Richman Report at 3, 20–21.
    The Refineries do not meaningfully dispute that this evidence is sufficient to
    establish an injury in fact, the first prong of the test for Article III standing. “For
    standing purposes, a loss of even a small amount of money is ordinarily an ‘injury.’”
    Czyzewski v. Jevic Holding Corp., 
    137 S. Ct. 973
    , 983 (2017); see also Carpenters
    Indus. Council v. Zinke, 
    854 F.3d 1
    , 5 (D.C. Cir. 2017) (“Economic harm to a
    business clearly constitutes an injury-in-fact. And the amount is irrelevant. A dollar
    of economic harm is still an injury-in-fact for standing purposes.”). The financial
    losses claimed by the Biofuels Coalition fit this description. The alleged losses are
    concrete in that they are quantified in dollars. The alleged losses are particularized in
    that they affect each Biofuels Coalition member who produces ethanol or ethanol
    feedstocks.
    Certain Biofuels Coalition members also have cognizable injuries as
    competitors. Probable economic injury resulting from governmental actions which
    “alter competitive conditions” can constitute an injury in fact. Clinton v. City of
    N.Y., 
    524 U.S. 417
    , 432-33 (1998) (citation omitted). Put another way, “economic
    45
    actors suffer constitutional injury in fact when agencies lift regulatory restrictions on
    their competitors or otherwise allow increased competition.” Nat’l Biodiesel Bd. v.
    EPA, 
    843 F.3d 1010
    , 1015 (D.C. Cir. 2016) (citation and internal quotation marks
    omitted); see also Citizens for Responsibility & Ethics in Washington v. Trump, 
    939 F.3d 131
    , 143 (2d Cir. 2019) (explaining that competitor standing “relies on
    economic logic to conclude that a plaintiff will likely suffer an injury-in-fact when
    the [defendant] acts in a way that increases competition or aids the plaintiff’s
    competitors”) (citation omitted, brackets in original).
    The record reflects at least some degree of competition between the Refineries
    and certain members of the Biofuels Coalition. The former produce or market
    conventional fuels, and the latter produce or market alternative fuels. One of the
    goals of the RFS program is to replace crude oil with biofuel, see supra § I, and
    alternatives like ethanol displace the traditional components of petroleum-based fuel.
    See, e.g., Declaration of Scott Mundt ¶ 5 (“RFS requires refiners to use specified
    volumes of renewable fuel, such as ethanol, to reduce the quantity of petroleum-
    based transportation fuel.”); 2011 DOE Study, REC1 at 504 (“Ethanol serves to
    displace other blending components of gasoline.”); HollyFrontier Corporation 2015
    Form 10-K at 27 (Feb. 24, 2016), REC1 at 41 (stating on behalf of the parent entity
    for Cheyenne and Woods Cross that “we compete with other industries that provide
    alternative means to satisfy the energy and fuel requirements of our industrial,
    commercial and individual consumers,” and “[t]he more successful these alternatives
    become” the greater the impact on “pricing and demand for our products and
    46
    profitability”). The EPA’s decision to extend the small refinery exemption relieves
    the Refineries from having to pay for blending or RINs associated with renewable
    fuels, including the types of fuel generated by Biofuels Coalition members. 
    See supra
    § I.C.1-3. There is injury in fact.
    The Refineries dispute the second Article III standing requirement, namely,
    whether the losses claimed by the Biofuels Coalition are “fairly traceable” to the
    EPA’s decisions to grant the three petitions at issue. Cheyenne, Woods Cross, and
    Wynnewood each argue that there is no evidence showing any individual extension
    of the small refinery exemption harmed any individual Biofuels Coalition member.
    For example, Cheyenne and Woods Cross insist that their exempted RINs constitute
    only a tiny fraction of the total RFS obligation. The Refineries also contend that
    RFA’s economist did not analyze whether any one extension resulted in lower
    ethanol sales or prices for any one producer, and that RFA’s economist at best has
    identified correlation between (rather than proving causation for) ethanol demand and
    carryover RINs.
    These arguments are colorable, but we conclude that the “fairly traceable”
    requirement is satisfied. In Massachusetts, a coalition of States, local governments,
    and private organizations alleged that the EPA abdicated its responsibility to regulate
    certain greenhouse emissions from new motor vehicles under the Clean Air 
    Act. 549 U.S. at 504
    . Although “[t]he harms associated with climate change” were “serious
    and well recognized,” 
    id. at 521,
    the EPA challenged the coalition’s standing to sue
    by asserting that any decision not to regulate emissions from new vehicles
    47
    contributed “insignificantly to petitioners’ injuries,” and regulating said emissions
    would be a drop in the worldwide bucket and immaterial to mitigating “global
    climate change.” 
    Id. at 521,
    523–24. The Supreme Court did not accept this line of
    reasoning:
    The EPA overstates its case. Its argument rests on the erroneous
    assumption that a small incremental step, because it is incremental, can
    never be attacked in a federal judicial forum. Yet accepting that
    premise would doom most challenges to regulatory action. Agencies,
    like legislatures, do not generally resolve massive problems in one fell
    regulatory swoop. They instead whittle away at them over time,
    refining their preferred approach as circumstances change and as they
    develop a more nuanced understanding of how best to proceed.
    
    Id. at 524
    (citation omitted). Massachusetts thus held “[w]hile it may be true that
    regulating motor-vehicle emissions will not by itself reverse global warming, it by no
    means follows that we lack jurisdiction to decide whether EPA has a duty to take
    steps to slow or reduce it.” 
    Id. at 525
    (emphasis in original); see also Consumer
    Data Indus. Ass’n v. King, 
    678 F.3d 898
    , 902 (10th Cir. 2012) (“[T]he Supreme
    Court concluded that Massachusetts had standing to challenge the EPA’s refusal to
    regulate greenhouse-gas emissions despite the attenuated causal chain linking agency
    non-action to potential environmental damage.”).
    The causal chain linking the EPA’s grants of the Refineries’ extension
    petitions to potential economic damage to the Biofuels Coalition is no more
    attenuated. How much of an economic loss each Biofuels Coalition member may
    have sustained as a result of the EPA’s decision to grant a given refinery petition is
    certainly debatable, and the amount of any such loss may be impossible to precisely
    48
    quantify. But the evidence presented is sufficient to show for standing purposes that
    Biofuels Coalition members who produce ethanol or feedstocks suffered some injury
    – even if each individual member’s loss is small – which is fairly traceable to
    increasing the number of unretired RINs. Paired with economic principles suggesting
    that lessened demand for a product will reduce the price, RFA’s affidavit in this case
    is enough, in part because the record otherwise does not establish that all of the
    injury to Biofuels Coalition members is “th[e] result [of] the independent action of
    some third party not before the court.” 
    Lujan, 504 U.S. at 560
    –61 (citation omitted,
    brackets in original).
    We recognize that markets are often complicated, and nothing in today’s
    opinion should be construed as holding that the analysis of RFA’s economist is
    unimpeachable. When evaluating standing, however, “[t]he judicial task of
    determining causation can be imprecise” because courts must make a “predictive
    judgment” about a “notoriously difficult issue” based on a pre-trial record.
    
    Carpenters, 854 F.3d at 6
    ; see also 
    id. (stating that
    “[c]ommon sense and basic
    economics” may be relevant to assessing causation in this context). It is “well
    settled” for these purposes that “petitioners need not prove a cause-and-effect
    relationship with absolute certainty; substantial likelihood of the alleged causality
    meets the test.” Nat. Res. Def. Council v. NHTSA, 
    894 F.3d 95
    , 104 (2d Cir. 2018)
    (citation omitted); see also Lexmark Int’l, Inc. v. Static Control Components, Inc.,
    
    572 U.S. 118
    , 134 n.6 (2014) (reiterating that “[p]roximate causation is not a
    requirement of Article III standing”). “This is true even in cases where the injury
    49
    hinges on the reactions of third parties” to an agency’s conduct. Nat. Res. Def.
    
    Council, 894 F.3d at 104
    .
    Additionally, more than just general competitive harm is fairly traceable to the
    extensions of the three small refinery exemptions at issue. Those extensions not only
    remove a large compliance burden from the Refineries, but also specifically relate to
    products (ethanol and ethanol feedstocks) that Biofuels Coalition members sold and
    continue to sell. Several courts have found causation for purposes of standing when
    government action results in concrete and particularized changes to a competitive
    relationship. See, e.g., Nat’l Biodiesel 
    Bd., 843 F.3d at 1015
    –16 (holding, based on
    the facts in a competitor standing case, that it was “self-evident” the complainants
    established “injury, causation, and redressability”); Int’l Bhd. of Teamsters v. U.S.
    Dep’t of Transp., 
    724 F.3d 206
    , 211–12 (D.C. Cir. 2013) (holding, based on the facts
    in a competitor standing case, that “[t]he causation and redressability requirements of
    Article III are easily satisfied”).
    The Refineries challenge redressability as well, the third component of the test
    for Article III standing. Pointing out that the RINs reinstated by the EPA were only
    valid in 2016 and 2017, Cheyenne and Woods Cross argue that vacating the EPA’s
    grants of those petitions will not benefit the Biofuels Coalition now. Wynnewood
    joins in by arguing that it was unnecessary to “reinstate” any 2017 RINs at all for that
    refinery. The Refineries also contend that there is no statutory basis for the EPA to
    force them to retire different RINs in excess of RFS obligations for future years, and
    even if there were, it would be speculative to conclude this small set of RINs would
    50
    meaningfully affect ethanol prices or otherwise change the financial fortunes of
    individual Biofuels Coalition members. This is especially true, the Refineries assert,
    given the Biofuels Coalition’s allegation that there are already billions of cheap
    carryover RINs in the market.
    Significantly, however, we have also taken cues from Massachusetts on
    redressability. We stated in Consumer Data that “[t]he Supreme Court has rejected
    interpretations of the rule that demand complete redressability, stressing that a
    plaintiff need show only that a favorable decision would redress ‘an injury,’ not
    ‘every 
    injury.’” 678 F.3d at 902
    (emphasis in original, quoting Larson v. Valente,
    
    456 U.S. 228
    , 243 n.15 (1982)). Referencing Massachusetts, we found that
    “[r]edressability was satisfied” because “the risk of harm would be reduced to some
    extent if petitioners received the relief they seek.” 
    Id. (citation and
    internal quotation
    marks omitted, emphasis in original). Even more pointedly, we rejected the
    argument that a favorable decision must redress at least one injury completely:
    [T]he State cites no authority for this theory, and neglects to account for
    Massachusetts v. EPA where the Court adopted the contrary conclusion
    – standing is proper where a favorable decision would relieve “some
    extent” of an injury. Indeed, if the law required that the requested relief
    afford complete redress, the Supreme Court would not have allowed
    Massachusetts to proceed against the EPA, as there was no guarantee a
    favorable decision would mitigate against future environmental damage,
    must less redress it completely.
    
    Id. at 905
    (citation omitted, brackets added). We recognized the same principle in
    Chamber of Commerce of the U.S. v. Edmondson, 
    594 F.3d 742
    (10th Cir. 2010),
    concluding that “the harms alleged by the Chambers will likely be ‘reduced to some
    51
    extent’ by an injunction running against the Attorney General.” 
    Id. at 757–58
    (citations omitted); see also 
    id. at 757
    n.16 (“An opposite holding would contravene
    Supreme Court precedent so as to require complete redressability.”).
    We pause to address the Refineries’ point that a favorable order will not affect
    the market or redress any economic harm because all of the reinstated or exempted
    RINs were for 2017 or earlier compliance years. While it is true that a given RIN
    may be carried over only to the next compliance year, see, e.g., 40 C.F.R.
    § 80.1427(6)(i), that RIN may have ongoing effects as a result of the carryover
    process. A RIN generated in year one but used in year two reduces the amount of
    blending that must be done or the number of RIN purchases that must be made in the
    second year. This process then repeats itself year to year. In year two, for instance,
    any excess blending accomplished or excess RINs acquired may be carried over for
    compliance purposes to year three. The EPA appears to have implicitly
    acknowledged these ripple effects by noting in its proposed standards for 2019 that
    “[w]hile EPA cannot predict how obligated parties will comply in 2018 or the
    amount of additional small refinery hardship exemptions that may be granted in the
    future, the 2016 and 2017 exemptions have directly increased the number of
    carryover RINs that will likely be available for compliance with the 2019 standards.”
    Renewable Fuel Standard Program: Standards for 2019 and Biomass-Based Diesel
    Volume for 2020, 83 Fed. Reg. 32,024, 32,030 (proposed July 10, 2018).
    Moreover, although we do not decide today the nature or scope of the EPA’s
    remedial powers, we conclude that vacating or invalidating the extensions of the
    52
    Refineries’ exemptions is “likely” to lead to EPA action addressing the contested
    2016–2017 RINs, thus at least partially redressing the Biofuels Coalition’s alleged
    harms. In addition to authorizing civil penalties, see 42 U.S.C. § 7545(d)(1), the
    amended Clean Air Act conveys to federal courts the power to award injunctive and
    “other appropriate” relief for specified violations of the statute or accompanying
    regulations. See 
    id. § 7545(d)(2).
    The statute then directs the EPA to promulgate
    regulations to “ensure” that gasoline sold “contains the applicable volume of
    renewable fuel.” 
    Id. § 7545(o)(2)(A)(i).
    Among other things, those regulations
    prohibit creating or transferring “a RIN that is invalid,” 40 C.F.R. § 80.1460(b)(2),
    failing to acquire sufficient RINs or using invalid RINs “to meet the person’s RVOs,”
    
    id. § 80.1460(c)(1),
    and causing another person to commit these and other violations.
    
    Id. § 80.1460(d).
    On more than one occasion, the EPA has requested legal action seeking after-
    the-fact retirements of RINs. Two examples are highlighted on the EPA’s website.
    See Civil Enforcement of the Renewable Fuel Standard Program,
    https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/civil-enforcement-renewable-fuel-standard-
    program (last visited January 17, 2020). In United States v. NGL Crude Logistics,
    LLC, No. 2:16-cv-1038-LRR (N.D. Iowa), a complaint filed in 2016 “at the request
    of the Administrator” sought to require the defendant to retire approximately 36
    million invalid RINs from 2011 to “offset the harm caused by the violations.” NGL
    Crude Logistics Docket No. 21 at 1, 9–13, 23. The parties entered into a consent
    decree that accomplished just that, with the defendant retiring the RINs in 2018–
    53
    2019. 
    Id. Docket No.
    247 at 1, 6–7. In United States v. Chemoil Corp., No. 4:16-cv-
    05538-PJH (N.D. Cal.), the complaint filed at the EPA’s request sought to require the
    defendant to retire approximately 73 million RINs to comply with RVOs from 2011–
    2013. Chemoil Corp. Docket No. 1 at 10, 14. That case was also resolved via a
    consent decree, with the defendant retiring 65 million RINs in 2016–2017. 
    Id. Docket No.
    7 at 4, 10. The purpose of these illustrations is not to comment on the
    legal merits of the cases, but instead to demonstrate the likelihood of the EPA taking
    further action to offset the effects of any 2016–2017 refinery RINs that are vacated or
    deemed invalid by court order.
    Post-Sinclair events reinforce this conclusion. After holding that an existential
    threat to a refinery’s existence was not the sine qua non of “disproportionate
    economic hardship,” this court vacated two agency orders denying hardship relief and
    granted the EPA’s request for a voluntary remand and vacatur with respect to a third.
    Producers of Renewables United for Integrity Truth & Transparency v. EPA, 778 F.
    App’x 1, 2–3 (D.C. Cir. 2019). On remand, the EPA granted extensions of these
    Wyoming refinery exemptions, and ordered a form of prospective relief:
    The three Wyoming refineries had by then demonstrated compliance
    with the 2014 and 2015 standards by retiring RINs for those years, and
    those RINs had since expired. The EPA thus decided that, in order to
    provide the refineries with “meaningful relief” from their since-excused
    compliance, it would “replac[e]” the retired, expired RINs with an equal
    number of newly minted 2018 RINs.
    
    Id. at 3
    (quotation marks and brackets in original). A petitioner challenged the EPA’s
    RIN-replacement orders, and the D.C. Circuit transferred the case to this court. 
    Id. at 54
    3–4. Again, we raise this matter not to pre-judge the merits of Producers of
    Renewables, as those merits will be evaluated by a different panel of this court. We
    highlight the case solely to show a likelihood that the EPA will not sit on its hands if
    prior refinery RINs are invalidated.
    The competitor standing doctrine likewise informs redressability. The EPA’s
    decisions to lift renewable fuel requirements by extending the small refinery
    exemption convey an advantage to the Refineries linked to the principal economic
    activity of certain Biofuels Coalition members (generating, marketing, and selling
    ethanol). Courts invoking competitor standing observe that redressability is “closely
    related to the question of causation,” and when the complainants are subjected to
    some form of ongoing harm, “it logically follows that relief would redress their
    injury – at least to some extent, which is all that Article III requires.” Citizens for
    Responsibility & Ethics in 
    Washington, 939 F.3d at 147
    ; see also United States v.
    Students Challenging Regulatory Agency Procedures (SCRAP), 
    412 U.S. 669
    , 689
    n.14 (1973) (declining to limit standing to “those who have been ‘significantly’
    affected by agency action,” and noting that “an identifiable trifle is enough for
    standing to fight out a question of principle”) (citation omitted).
    Because standing defines and limits the power of the judicial branch, it does
    not exist for the convenience of the parties. Standing must be based on specific facts
    satisfying all required legal elements, just as our determination that the Biofuels
    Coalition has standing is based on the facts presented here. Still, the implications of
    the Refineries’ position cannot be overlooked. This case is unusual because it
    55
    involves decisions to grant three small refinery extension petitions, as opposed to just
    one. There is evidence in the record that these three Refineries collectively account
    for a non-trivial amount of exempted renewable fuel. This case also involves
    multiple third-party producers, acting through the trade associations or advocacy
    groups that constitute the Biofuels Coalition. There is evidence that these producers
    collectively account for a non-trivial amount of ethanol and ethanol feedstocks. If
    these complainants lack a “fairly traceable” and “redressable” injury vis-à-vis these
    Refineries, it is hard to imagine ones that would. In other words, if the Refineries are
    correct on the issue of standing, then EPA decisions to reduce renewable fuel
    obligations under the Clean Air Act by granting extensions of the small refinery
    exemption may be effectively unreviewable.
    This threat is heightened by the manner in which extension petitions are
    granted. Small refineries understandably do not want to publicize otherwise
    restricted financial information. So the refineries request that their petitions be kept
    confidential. E.g., REC2 at 598, 653, 687; see 
    also supra
    § I.C (surveying some of
    the legal bases for confidentiality designations). Given these confidentiality
    concerns, the EPA normally does not publish decisions granting small refinery
    petitions, in the Federal Register or anywhere else. See 
    Sinclair, 887 F.3d at 992
    (“Nor do third parties have access to the decisions, since the EPA does not publicly
    release its decisions because they contain confidential business information.”). This
    makes it difficult for outsiders to determine when petitions have been filed and
    granted. Members of the Biofuels Coalition claim that they only found out about the
    56
    agency’s decisions in this matter through Reuters articles and public company
    disclosure documents like Forms 10-K. Cooper Decl. ¶ 12; Jennings Decl. ¶ 5;
    Johnson Decl. ¶ 8; Doggett Decl. ¶ 8. Yet without participation by third parties, it is
    difficult to see how EPA decisions granting small refinery petitions will ever be
    subject to appellate review. A small refinery that receives an extension of its
    renewable fuels exemption has no incentive to appeal. Nor does the EPA have any
    incentive to appeal its own decision.
    Excepting these EPA small refinery decisions from judicial review aimed at
    ensuring statutory compliance would be troublesome. “Congress rarely intends to
    prevent courts from enforcing its directives to federal agencies.” Mach Mining, LLC
    v. EEOC, 
    135 S. Ct. 1645
    , 1651 (2015). The Administrative Procedure Act (“APA”)
    “creates a basic presumption of judicial review [for] one suffering legal wrong
    because of agency action.” Weyerhaeuser Co. v. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Serv., 139 S.
    Ct. 361, 370 (2018) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted, brackets in
    original). The Supreme Court has long characterized the presumption favoring
    judicial review as “strong,” and it can be rebutted only upon a showing that
    “Congress wanted an agency to police its own conduct.” Mach 
    Mining, 135 S. Ct. at 1651
    (citation omitted). No such showing has been made here, as nothing in the
    amended Clean Air Act directly “precludes review” of EPA decisions granting small
    refinery petitions, and “federal courts routinely assess” these types of adjudications
    under APA provisions such as 5 U.S.C. § 706(2). 
    Weyerhaeuser, 139 S. Ct. at 370
    ,
    371. Accepting the Refineries’ standing arguments would largely negate this
    57
    presumption and preclude any judicial review of orders granting extensions of the
    small refinery exemption.
    III.   OTHER JURISDICTIONAL ISSUES
    The Refineries present several other challenges to jurisdiction. In addition to
    contesting jurisdiction based on the 2014 change in the EPA’s definition of “small
    refinery,” see infra § IV.A.2, the Refineries separately contend that the Biofuels
    Coalition was required to, but did not, file this action within 60 days of the issuance
    of the EPA orders granting the Refineries’ hardship petitions. The Refineries
    maintain as well that the Biofuels Coalition, notwithstanding its status as a non-party
    to agency proceedings on the Refineries’ hardship applications, was required to
    present its arguments to the EPA before seeking judicial review. The EPA contests
    jurisdiction based on the 2014 Small Refinery Rule, but does not join either of the
    Refineries’ other two jurisdictional arguments.
    A.    TIMELINESS
    The Clean Air Act generally requires challenges to final agency actions to be
    filed “within sixty days from the date notice of such promulgation, approval, or
    action appears in the Federal Register[.]” 42 U.S.C. § 7607(b)(1). “The deadline in
    § 7607(b)(1) is jurisdictional.” Utah v. EPA, 
    765 F.3d 1257
    , 1258 (10th Cir. 2014).
    Because “Congress waived sovereign immunity through § 7607(b)(1),” the 60-day
    deadline “serves a jurisdictional function” by restricting this congressional waiver.
    
    Id. at 1260.
    The relevant EPA regulation states that “[u]nless the Administrator
    otherwise explicitly provides in a particular promulgation, approval, or action, the
    58
    time and date of such promulgation, approval or action” for purposes of § 7607(b)(1)
    “shall be at 1:00 p.m. eastern time (standard or daylight, as appropriate) on (a) for a
    Federal Register document, the date when the document is published in the Federal
    Register, or (b) for any other document, two weeks after it is signed.” 40 C.F.R.
    § 23.3.
    The history of § 23.3 is instructive. The main reason the EPA proposed this
    provision and related provisions was “to bring greater fairness to so-called ‘races to
    the courthouse.’” 50 Fed. Reg. 7,268 (Feb. 21, 1985). Litigants looked for what they
    perceived as friendly courts regarding the interpretation of certain statutes. They
    then sought “by various means to be the first to be informed of an Agency action and
    then to be the first to file a petition for review in one of the [friendliest of the] twelve
    United States courts of appeals.” 
    Id. (brackets added).
    The Clean Air Act, by
    providing for “exclusive judicial review in the D.C. Circuit of EPA’s nationally-
    applicable regulations,” eliminated “a great many racing opportunities,” but not all of
    them, and other statutes contained no provisions to reduce racing. 
    Id. In promulgating
    the new rules, the agency sought to “eliminate the worst abuses
    associated with races to the courthouse under those EPA-administered statutes that
    allow racing and under which races are reasonably likely to occur.” 
    Id. One commenter
    objected to the new rules on the ground that “affected persons
    may have no notice of the action” and be deprived of due process. 
    Id. at 7,269.
    The
    EPA addressed that concern by noting that “[m]ost potential litigants interested in
    actions covered by the regulations will have actual notice of non-Federal Register
    59
    documents.” 
    Id. As to
    litigants with notice, the EPA observed that the rule “will
    have the beneficial effect of establishing a fixed trigger for commencing the judicial
    review process.” 
    Id. Litigants without
    notice were not part of any race to the
    courthouse, and thus were not addressed by the rule: “The commenter’s concern –
    that someone entitled to seek judicial review, and who has no notice of the action,
    will later be barred from obtaining review by a preclusive judicial review provision –
    addresses a matter not within the scope of this rulemaking. Any such claim can be
    raised in judicial proceedings if it arises in practice.” 
    Id. The Refineries
    assert that the reference to “any other document” in the text of
    § 23.3 trumps any preamble, but there is no conflict between the two. The rule
    provides that agency actions reflected in the Federal Register become final at 1:00
    p.m. eastern time on the date of publication, and agency actions reflected in other
    documents become final two weeks after publication. The rule is silent as to whether
    this principle of finality applies to agency actions effected by “other document[s]”
    when parties are without notice. It does not say parties without notice are, or are not,
    subject to the rule. Instead, it leaves that issue to be “raised in judicial proceedings if
    it arises in practice.” 50 Fed. Reg. at 7,269.
    Filling this silence by construing § 23.3 to foreclose appeals by parties without
    notice would be irrational. What possible purpose would be served by such an
    interpretation, other than to immunize unpublished agency actions from third party
    scrutiny? The agency’s justification for promulgating the rule in the first instance –
    setting a fixed trigger for commencing the judicial review process – does not apply to
    60
    parties without notice who cannot participate in any race to the courthouse. As a
    result, the Refineries’ proposed interpretation of § 23.3 is not just inconsistent with
    the strong presumption favoring judicial review of agency action. 
    See supra
    § II. It
    is also in tension with the enduring principle that if a literal interpretation would
    “lead to absurd results, or be contrary to the evident meaning of the act taken as a
    whole, it should be rejected.” Heydenfeldt v. Daney Gold & Silver Mining Co., 
    93 U.S. 634
    , 638 (1876).
    We summarize our ruling as follows: The 60-day deadline in 42 U.S.C.
    § 7607(b)(1) did not render the Biofuels Coalition’s petition untimely. Because
    agency orders granting the Refineries’ hardship petitions were not published in the
    Federal Register, the statutory clock never started.3 The EPA regulation
    implementing the statute states that documents other than those published in the
    Federal Register become final two weeks after they are signed, but the text and the
    preamble demonstrate that the regulation does not address parties without notice of
    such “other documents.” The Refineries’ attempt to invoke the statutory cut-off is
    misguided.
    B.     RIPENESS
    3
    The statute also permits a party seeking review “based solely on grounds
    arising after such sixtieth day” to submit a petition “within sixty days after such
    grounds arise.” 42 U.S.C. § 7607(b)(1). Here, however, there is no way to hold that
    the Biofuels Coalition’s petition is based exclusively on grounds arising 60 days after
    any publication in the Federal Register (thus triggering the “after-arising” 60-day
    filing period), because no publication ever took place.
    61
    The Refineries’ other argument is couched in terms of ripeness. Although
    federal courts have a “virtually unflagging” obligation to hear and decide cases
    within their jurisdiction, 
    Lexmark, 572 U.S. at 126
    (citations omitted), the ripeness
    doctrine is intended “to prevent the courts, through avoidance of premature
    adjudication, from entangling themselves in abstract disagreements over
    administrative policies, and also to protect the agencies from judicial interference
    until an administrative decision has been formalized and its effects felt in a concrete
    way by the challenging parties.” Nat’l Park Hosp. Ass’n v. Dep’t of Interior, 
    538 U.S. 803
    , 807–08 (2003) (citation omitted). “Determining whether administrative
    action is ripe for judicial review requires us to evaluate (1) the fitness of the issues
    for judicial decision and (2) the hardship to the parties of withholding court
    consideration.” 
    Id. at 808.
    The “fitness for judicial decision” criterion favors review. Relevant
    considerations include whether “the issue is a purely legal one,” whether “the agency
    decision in dispute was final,” whether the court would “benefit from further factual
    development of the issues presented,” and whether “judicial intervention would
    inappropriately interfere with further administrative action[.]” Wyoming v. Zinke,
    
    871 F.3d 1133
    , 1141–42 & n.2 (10th Cir. 2017) (citations and internal quotation
    marks omitted). No one disputes that the refinery orders constitute final agency
    actions. The core statutory interpretation issues are predominantly legal. Combined
    with the public record, the existing agency record is sufficient to decide the fact-
    based issues that have been presented on appeal. The EPA’s position is crystallized
    62
    in three written orders granting the refinery petitions. There is no indication that the
    EPA intends to reconsider those orders, so judicial review will not interfere with any
    ongoing or contemplated administrative activity.
    The “hardship to the parties” criterion favors review as well. We have
    afforded substantial weight to the hardship element when complainants face
    “significant costs, financial or otherwise,” if their disputes are deemed unripe for
    adjudication, and when the respondent has “taken some concrete action” that impairs
    or threatens to impair the petitioner’s interests. Utah v. U.S. Dep’t of Interior, 
    535 F.3d 1184
    , 1197–98 (10th Cir. 2008). All of those factors are present here. The EPA
    has taken concrete action by granting the Refineries’ extension petitions. Exempting
    the Refineries from RFS compliance impairs the interests of Biofuels Coalition
    members by increasing competition and reducing the value of products those
    members market and sell. The alleged harm suffered by Biofuels Coalition
    constituents will worsen if judicial review is delayed or denied.
    The Refineries cite authorities discussing the benefits of allowing an
    administrative agency to consider the precise question raised, adding that a litigant
    waives any argument not so presented. The cases indicate that parties “generally
    must structure their participation so that it alerts the agency to the parties’ position
    and contentions, in order to allow the agency to give the issue meaningful
    consideration.” Forest Guardians v. U.S. Forest Serv., 
    495 F.3d 1162
    , 1170 (10th
    Cir. 2007) (citations and internal quotation marks omitted). The cases also explain
    that the waiver rule ensures “simple fairness” to the agency and other affected
    63
    litigants, while providing a court “with a record to evaluate complex regulatory
    issues[.]” ExxonMobil Oil Corp. v. FERC, 
    487 F.3d 945
    , 962 (D.C. Cir. 2007)
    (citation omitted).
    This general presentment requirement does not cause the case at hand to be
    unripe. Biofuels Coalition members received no notice of and no invitation to
    participate in the proceedings culminating in the refinery extension orders. Biofuels
    Coalition members were thus precluded from raising administrative arguments in
    opposition to the refinery extensions, and the EPA cannot be forced to conduct a
    brand new hearing. This court is powerless to require administrative procedures in
    addition to those set forth in the APA, Vt. Yankee Nuclear Power Corp. v. Nat. Res.
    Def. Council, Inc., 
    435 U.S. 519
    , 524 (1978), which beyond its plain text imposes
    only “a general ‘procedural’ requirement of sorts by mandating that an agency take
    whatever steps it needs to provide an explanation that will enable the court to
    evaluate the agency’s rationale at the time of decision.” Pension Benefit Guar. Corp.
    v. LTV Corp., 
    496 U.S. 633
    , 654 (1990). Even if the refinery orders and the existing
    administrative record in theory could be more tailored to each argument giving rise to
    this appeal, they in practice provide adequate facts and a sufficient explanation of the
    EPA’s reasoning to permit judicial review.
    IV.   THE BIOFUELS COALITION’S STATUTORY CONSTRUCTION CHALLENGES
    The Biofuels Coalition contends that the EPA exceeded its statutory authority
    in at least three respects by granting the Refineries’ petitions. First, the Biofuels
    Coalition asserts that the EPA failed to honor the statutory requirement of an
    64
    “extension,” confusing an extension of an exemption with a plain-vanilla exemption.
    Second, the Biofuels Coalition argues that the EPA robbed the phrase
    “disproportionate economic hardship” of its intended meaning by focusing on
    structural factors and eschewing a comparative analysis to determine which hardships
    are disproportionate. Third, the Biofuels Coalition says the EPA neglected to require
    that any disproportionate economic hardship was caused by compliance with RFS
    obligations.
    These arguments rise or fall with the provisions in 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(9).
    For reference, those provisions state in relevant part:
    (9) Small refineries
    (A) Temporary exemption
    (i) In general
    The requirements of paragraph (2) shall not apply to small
    refineries until calendar year 2011.
    (ii) Extension of exemption
    (I) Study by Secretary of Energy
    Not later than December 31, 2008, the Secretary of Energy
    shall conduct for the Administrator a study to determine
    whether compliance with the requirements of paragraph (2)
    would impose a disproportionate economic hardship on small
    refineries.
    (II) Extension of exemption
    In the case of a small refinery that the Secretary of Energy
    determines under subclause (I) would be subject to a
    disproportionate economic hardship if required to comply with
    paragraph (2), the Administrator shall extend the exemption
    65
    under clause (i) for the small refinery for a period of not less
    than 2 additional years.
    (B) Petitions based on disproportionate economic hardship
    (i) Extension of exemption
    A small refinery may at any time petition the Administrator for
    an extension of the exemption under subparagraph (A) for the
    reason of disproportionate economic hardship.
    (ii) Evaluation of petitions
    In evaluating a petition under clause (i), the Administrator, in
    consultation with the Secretary of Energy, shall consider the
    findings of the study under subparagraph (A)(ii) and other
    economic factors.
    (iii) Deadline for actions on petitions
    The Administrator shall act on any petition submitted by a small
    refinery for a hardship exemption not later than 90 days after the
    date of receipt of the petition.
    42 U.S.C. §§ 7545(o)(9)(A)–(B) (emphasis in original).
    Plain and unambiguous statutory language must be enforced “according to its
    terms,” because we assume “the ordinary meaning of that language accurately
    expresses the legislative purpose.” Hardt v. Reliance Standard Life Ins. Co., 
    560 U.S. 242
    , 251 (2010) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). To decide
    whether the language of a statute is plain, “we must read the words in their context
    and with a view to their place in the overall statutory scheme.” King v. Burwell, 
    135 S. Ct. 2480
    , 2489 (2015) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). A statute
    generally should be interpreted “so that effect is given to all its provisions, so that no
    part will be inoperative or superfluous, void or insignificant.” Rubin v. Islamic
    66
    Republic of Iran, 
    138 S. Ct. 816
    , 824 (2018) (citation and internal quotation marks
    omitted). The goal is to view the law “as a symmetrical and coherent regulatory
    scheme” and to “fit, if possible, all parts into an harmonious whole.” FDA v. Brown
    & Williamson Tobacco Corp., 
    529 U.S. 120
    , 133 (2000) (citations and internal
    quotation marks omitted); see also Graham Cty. Soil & Water Conservation Dist. v.
    United States ex rel. Wilson, 
    559 U.S. 280
    , 290 (2010) (indicating that a court’s duty
    is “to construe statutes, not isolated provisions”) (citation and internal quotation
    marks omitted).
    A.     EXTENSION OF EXEMPTION
    The APA states that a reviewing court shall “hold unlawful and set aside
    agency action, findings and conclusions” found to be “in excess of statutory
    jurisdiction, authority, or limitations, or short of statutory right[.]” 5 U.S.C. §
    706(2)(C). The APA further states that “[t]o the extent necessary to decision and
    when presented, the reviewing court shall decide all relevant questions of law,
    interpret constitutional and statutory provisions, and determine the meaning or
    applicability of the terms of an agency action.” 
    Id. § 706.
    When reviewing an
    agency’s legal determination, the court generally applies the standard of review
    articulated by the Supreme Court in Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council,
    
    467 U.S. 837
    (1984). See 
    id. at 842–44
    (asking “whether Congress has directly
    spoken to the precise question at issue,” and if not, “whether the agency’s answer is
    based on a permissible construction of the statute”).
    67
    There are times, however, when Chevron is inapplicable. “[L]egislative rules
    and formal adjudications are always entitled to Chevron deference, while less formal
    pronouncements like interpretive rules and informal adjudications may or may not be
    entitled to Chevron deference.” 
    Sinclair, 887 F.3d at 990
    (citation omitted); see also
    United States v. Mead Corp., 
    533 U.S. 218
    , 229–30 (2001) (“It is fair to assume
    generally that Congress contemplates administrative action with the effect of law
    when it provides for a relatively formal administrative procedure tending to foster the
    fairness and deliberation that should underlie a pronouncement of such force.”). In
    Sinclair, we determined that “Congress did not intend the EPA’s interpretation of
    ‘disproportionate economic hardship’ to have the ‘force of 
    law.’” 887 F.3d at 993
    .
    And we concluded that informal adjudications of petitions to extend the small
    refinery exemption were not subject to Chevron deference. 
    Id. at 992;
    see also 
    id. (noting, among
    other things, that such adjudications lack “trial-like procedures” and
    “the benefit of notice-and-comment”).
    When Chevron does not apply, “we follow the analysis set forth in Skidmore v.
    Swift & Co., 
    323 U.S. 134
    (1944).” 
    Id. at 991
    (parallel citations omitted). Skidmore
    review means that the weight provided to an administrative judgment “will depend
    upon the thoroughness evident in [the agency’s] consideration, the validity of its
    reasoning, its consistency with earlier and later pronouncements, and all those factors
    which give it power to persuade, if lacking power to 
    control.” 323 U.S. at 140
    (brackets added). Put another way, an administrative ruling under Skidmore may
    68
    “claim the merit of its writer’s thoroughness, logic, and expertness, its fit with prior
    interpretations, and any other sources of weight.” 
    Mead, 533 U.S. at 235
    .
    1.     TEXTUAL ANALYSIS
    For the Biofuels Coalition’s first statutory argument, we begin with the text
    referring to an “Extension of Exemption.” The small refinery exemption subject to
    an extension in this section of the amended Clean Air Act is expressly identified as
    “Temporary” in subpart (A). 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(9)(A). That temporary exemption
    for small refineries initially lasted until calendar year 2011. 
    Id. § 7545(o)(9)(A)(i).
    Congress decided this temporary exemption could be extended past 2010 for a given
    small refinery if compliance, as determined by a DOE study, would impose
    disproportionate economic hardship. 
    Id. § 7545(o)(9)(A)(ii).
    In subpart (B),
    Congress decided that this temporary exemption could also be extended past 2010 for
    a small refinery if compliance, as adjudicated by the EPA in response to that
    refinery’s petition, would impose disproportionate economic hardship. 
    Id. § 7545(o)(9)(B)(i)–(ii).
    A common definition of “extension” that meshes with this statutory scheme is
    apparent. Several dictionaries include a definition of “extension” to the effect of “an
    increase in length of time,” especially “an increase in time allowed under agreement
    or concession.” Extension, Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary,
    https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary (last visited January 17, 2020); see also
    Extension, Collins Online Dictionary,
    https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english (“Collins,” last visited January
    69
    17, 2020) (“An extension is an extra period of time for which something lasts or is
    valid, usually as a result of official permission.”); Extension, Dictionary.com Online
    Dictionary, https://www.dictionary.com/browse (“Dictionary.com,” last visited
    January 17, 2020) (“[A]n additional period of time given one to meet an
    obligation[.]”). Similar dictionaries contain a related definition of “extension”:
    “[T]he fact of reaching, stretching, or continuing; the act of adding to something in
    order to make it bigger or longer.” Extension, Cambridge Online Dictionary,
    https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english (“Cambridge,” last visited
    January 17, 2020); see also Extension, Dictionary.com (“[T]hat by which something
    is extended or enlarged; an addition[.]”); Extension, Lexico Online Dictionary,
    https://www.lexico.com/en/definition (“Lexico,” last visited January 17, 2020) (“A
    part that is added to something to enlarge or prolong it.”). These dictionaries also
    indicate that the definition of “extend” includes “to add to something in order to
    make it bigger or longer.” Extend, Cambridge; see also Extend, Merriam-Webster
    (“[T]o cause to be longer: Prolong[.]”) (capitalization omitted).
    These ordinary definitions of “extension,” along with common sense, dictate
    that the subject of an extension must be in existence before it can be extended. For
    example, if someone interested in current events subscribes to a news service in years
    one through five, allows the subscription to lapse in years six and seven, and goes
    back to the news service in year eight, we usually do not say that year eight was an
    “extension” of the subscription from years one through five. Rather, we say that the
    person renewed or restarted his or her subscription in year eight. Likewise, if
    70
    someone seeks and obtains permission in years one through five to shop at a
    members-only retailer, does not seek or is denied membership in years six and seven,
    but seeks and obtains membership in year eight, we typically do not say that the
    return to the retailer in year eight was an “extension” of the membership. We say,
    instead, that the person renewed or restarted his or her membership in year eight.
    Paired with the rest of the amended Clean Air Act, therefore, common
    definitions of “extension” mean that a small refinery which did not seek or receive an
    exemption in prior years is ineligible for an extension, because at that point there is
    nothing to prolong, enlarge, or add to. Congress chose to provide an “Extension of
    exemption” for disproportionate economic hardship, based either on the results of the
    DOE study or on a meritorious petition. Congress did not provide an unlimited
    “Exemption” to every small refinery identified in the DOE study or with a
    meritorious petition. See Advocate Health Care Network v. Stapleton, 
    137 S. Ct. 1652
    , 1659 (2017) (observing that “[w]hen legislators did not adopt ‘obvious
    alternative’ language, ‘the natural implication is that they did not intend’ the
    alternative”) (citation omitted). Congress presumably used the term “extension” for a
    reason, and we should be hesitant to strip that word of significant meaning. See
    TRW, Inc. v. Andrews, 
    534 U.S. 19
    , 31 (2001) (restating that “[i]t is a cardinal
    principle of statutory construction that a statute ought, upon the whole, to be so
    construed that, if it can be prevented, no clause, sentence, or word shall be
    superfluous, void, or insignificant”) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted).
    71
    This interpretation of “extension” funnels small refineries toward compliance
    over time. The statute contemplates a “temporary” exemption for these entities “with
    an eye toward eventual compliance with the renewable fuels program for all
    refineries.” Hermes Consolidated, LLC v. EPA, 
    787 F.3d 568
    , 578 (D.C. Cir. 2015).
    All small refineries were the beneficiaries of a blanket exemption from 2006 through
    2010. According to the EPA, 24 of these small refineries received extensions of their
    exemptions in the aftermath of the 2011 DOE study. 
    See supra
    § I.B. That number
    should have tapered down from 2013 forward, because the only small refineries from
    this group which continued to be eligible for extensions were ones that submitted
    meritorious hardship petitions each year. This reading of “extension” means that
    once a small refinery figures out how to put itself in a position of annual compliance,
    that refinery is no longer a candidate for extending (really “renewing” or
    “restarting”) its exemption.
    The EPA and the Refineries place significant weight on more recent
    Congressional pronouncements emphasizing the significance or breadth of the small
    refinery exemption. 
    See supra
    § I.B. The Supreme Court has discouraged the use of
    “[p]ost-enactment legislative history (a contradiction in terms),” stating that such
    history “is not a legitimate tool of statutory interpretation.” Bruesewitz v. Wyeth
    LLC, 
    562 U.S. 223
    , 242 (2011). “Real (pre-enactment) legislative history is
    persuasive to some because it is thought to shed light on what legislators understood
    an ambiguous statutory text to mean when they voted to enact it into law. But post-
    enactment legislative history by definition could have had no effect on the
    72
    congressional vote.” 
    Id. (citations and
    internal quotation marks omitted). Bruesewitz
    assigned no value to “a Committee Report by a later Congress,” 
    id. at 241,
    consistent
    with other precedent. See, e.g., Barber v. Thomas, 
    560 U.S. 474
    , 486 (2010)
    (“[W]hatever interpretive force one attaches to legislative history, the Court normally
    gives little weight to statements, such as those of the individual legislators, made
    after the bill in question has become law.”) (emphasis in original); 
    Graham, 559 U.S. at 297
    –98 (refusing to rely on a letter written by the primary sponsors of a bill “13
    years after the amendments were enacted,” as the letter had “scant or no” interpretive
    value).
    We need not decide whether the post-enactment history proffered by the EPA
    and the Refineries is off limits, because even if we consider those materials, they do
    not change the outcome. The post-enactment materials do not discuss the definition
    of “extension.” Moreover, assuming arguendo that certain legislators thought the
    small refinery exemption was important, the ones who enacted the law also made
    clear that the renewable fuel targets reflected in the Energy Policy Act and the
    Energy Independence and Security Act were essential to promoting biofuel
    production, energy independence, and environmental protection. 
    See supra
    §§ I.A–
    B; see also American Fuel & Petrochemical Mfrs. v. EPA, 
    937 F.3d 559
    , 568 (D.C.
    Cir. 2019) (confirming that the RFS program was intended to “move the United
    States toward greater energy independence and security” and “increase the
    production of clean renewable fuels”) (citation omitted). Those targets were
    designed to be aggressive and “market forcing.” 
    See supra
    §§ I.A–B; see also
    73
    Americans for Clean Energy v EPA, 
    864 F.3d 691
    , 710 (D.C. Cir. 2017) (“[T]he
    Renewable Fuel Program’s increasing requirements are designed to force the market
    to create ways to produce and use greater and greater volumes of renewable fuel each
    year.”). To balance all of those policy concerns, Congress gave small refineries a
    substantial amount of time to adapt, commencing the RFS program with a blanket
    exemption that for some refineries ended up lasting seven years.
    A small refinery in 2006 was in a much different position than a small refinery
    in 2016 or 2017. A small refinery in 2006 did not have a meaningful opportunity to
    consider in advance whether or how it could comply with renewable fuel obligations.
    In contrast, a small refinery in 2016 or 2017 had many years to ponder operational
    issues and compliance costs, including whether it made sense to enter into or remain
    in the market in light of the statute’s challenging renewable fuels mandate. The EPA
    has long required each small refinery submitting an extension petition to consider and
    explain when the refinery will achieve compliance. 40 C.F.R. § 80.1441(e)(2)(i). So
    a small refinery in 2016 or 2017 had an ample opportunity to study and understand
    any disproportionate economic impact likely to be occasioned by meeting
    Congressional targets. Construing the word “extension” to require prior exemptions
    – as a predicate to prolongment or enlargement – limits but preserves the small
    refinery exemption while giving meaning to the remainder of 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(9).
    Understanding “extension” to require a predicate “exemption” is not new.
    Through at least the first quarter of 2016, the EPA itself limited “extensions” to only
    those small refineries that qualified for the original blanket exemption. To illustrate,
    74
    in April 2016, the EPA denied a petition submitted by Dakota Prairie Refining, LLC
    (“Dakota Prairie”) to extend the small refinery exemption in calendar year 2015.
    Petition for Review, Dakota Prairie Refining, LLC v. EPA, No. 16-2692, at 8 of 17
    (8th Cir. June 13, 2016) (“Dakota Prairie Appellate Petition”).4 The EPA explained
    that “[c]onsistent with the plain language of the CAA and in furtherance of
    Congressional intent, EPA promulgated regulations that allow only small refineries
    that previously had received the initial exemption to qualify for an extension of that
    exemption.” 
    Id. Hence, “EPA
    interprets and implements these provisions as
    allowing those small refineries qualifying for the statutory temporary exemption as
    now eligible for an extension of that exemption.” 
    Id. The EPA
    explained the rationale for this construction in its April 2016 Dakota
    Prairie denial letter. The EPA recognized that “this approach is not only consistent
    with the plain language of the statute and regulations, but also reflects the fact that
    newer small refineries have the ability to consider whether they believe the
    establishment of the RFS program and its requirements will cause economic hardship
    before beginning operations.” 
    Id. at 8–9
    of 17. Furthermore, said the EPA, “this
    approach avoids two possible negative consequences associated with any refinery
    exemption – an increase in obligations for non-exempt facilities or the use of less
    renewable fuel than EPA anticipated when it established the applicable percentage
    4
    The Dakota Prairie petition for appellate review attaches the EPA’s April 14,
    2016 denial letter. The petition and its attachments are available on PACER, and
    those materials are cited in footnote 4 on page 23 of the EPA’s appellate brief in this
    case.
    75
    standards.” 
    Id. at 9
    of 17. The EPA then put these principles into practice, stating
    that “[b]ased on the above, EPA is denying Dakota Prairie’s request to evaluate its
    petition for a one-year small refinery exemption for its 2015 RFS obligations.” 
    Id. The EPA
    and the Refineries contend that “extension” cannot be so interpreted
    because the statute allows a small refinery to tender a hardship petition “at any time.”
    42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(9)(B)(i). Common definitions of “any” are indeed expansive.
    See, e.g., Any, Dictionary.com (“[W]hatever or whichever it may be[.]”); Any, Lexico
    (equating “any time” with “[a]t whatever time”); Any, Merriam-Webster
    (“[U]nmeasured or unlimited in amount, number, or extent[.]”). But even if a small
    refinery can submit a hardship petition at any time, it does not follow that every
    single petition can be granted. By that logic, the EPA could grant a 2019 petition
    seeking a small refinery exemption for calendar year 2009 – more than a decade after
    the fact. The EPA would also be empowered to grant a re-submitted extension
    petition for an earlier year even though the agency had previously denied that very
    petition. And aside from these hypothetical examples, EPA data show that the
    approach followed by the agency from 2016-forward has opened up a gaping and
    ever-widening hole in the statute. The number of petitions filed by small refineries
    has gone up substantially, and the EPA has granted nearly every hardship application.
    
    See supra
    § I.B.
    In any event, a more delimited interpretation in which an “extension” requires
    a predicate exemption works hand-in-hand with the phrase “at any time.” As noted,
    the EPA must issue annual RFS percentages by November 30 of the prior year. 42
    76
    U.S.C. § 7545(o)(3)(A)–(B). Because they can submit petitions “at any time,” small
    refineries seeking to extend their hardship exemptions are not limited by this
    November 30 deadline. This is a significant statutory concession. As explained by
    the D.C. Circuit:
    The problem is that while the EPA must promulgate annual percentage
    standards by November 30 each year, refineries may petition for an
    exemption “at any time,” 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(9)(B)(i), and the EPA has
    no mechanism to adjust renewable fuel obligations to account for
    exemptions granted after each year’s percentage standards are finalized.
    As a result, because the EPA cannot ensure that non-exempt obligated
    parties compensate for the renewable-fuel shortfall created by belated
    exemptions, those gallons of renewable fuel simply go unproduced.
    American 
    Fuel, 937 F.3d at 571
    (emphasis in original). The EPA raises the
    percentage standards for non-exempt parties in a given year by subtracting from its
    calculations the transportation fuel contributions of small refineries that were granted
    exemptions before the EPA established the percentage standards in question. 
    Id. at 588
    (citing 40 C.F.R. § 80.1405(c)). “This solution, however, is only partial: the
    EPA does not currently account for small refinery exemptions granted after it
    promulgates percentage standards for that year – so-called retroactive exemptions.”
    
    Id. (emphasis in
    original).
    In short, it confers a substantial benefit upon small refineries and it maintains a
    coherent regulatory scheme to interpret “at any time” to exempt hardship petitioners
    from the EPA’s annual percentages deadline. The EPA does not have a mechanism
    to fully compensate for volumes exempted as a result of later-filed or later-granted
    small refinery petitions, and the tool the EPA does have imposes concomitant
    77
    burdens on non-exempt obligated parties. See 
    id. at 571
    (“When calculating
    percentage standards for any given year, the EPA accounts for any small refineries
    that have received exemptions by requiring non-exempt obligated parties to produce
    proportionally more.”). Interpreting the phrase “at any time” in this manner allows
    the word “extension” to maintain its ordinary meaning and to meaningfully promote
    the aims of the statute. The contrary interpretation suggested in this lawsuit by the
    EPA and the Refineries does not.
    Although our charge is to evaluate only the EPA’s adjudication of the three
    refinery petitions, we draw theoretical support from Americans for Clean Energy,
    
    864 F.3d 691
    . One of the issues in that case was the meaning of the statutory waiver
    provision based on “inadequate domestic supply.” 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(7)(A). The
    EPA attempted to defend a reading of that provision which was held inconsistent
    with the letter of the law and the spirit of Congress’ “market forcing 
    policy.” 864 F.3d at 710
    . The EPA’s proposed interpretation permitted the agency to unduly
    “bring the volume requirements down,” and “[n]o argument” supported “that goal-
    defying (much less that text-defying) statutory construction.” 
    Id. (citation omitted);
    see also 
    id. at 712
    (commenting that the EPA’s interpretation turned “the Renewable
    Fuel Program’s ‘market forcing’ provisions on their head”). The D.C. Circuit
    observed that even if it were persuaded by the agency’s policy arguments for
    lowering renewable fuel volume requirements, “those arguments could not overcome
    the statute’s plain language, which is our primary guide to Congress’ preferred
    policy. If the regime is indeed flawed, it is up to Congress and the President to
    78
    ‘reenter the field’ and fix it.” 
    Id. (citations and
    first set of internal quotation marks
    omitted).
    Because an “extension” requires a small refinery exemption in prior years to
    prolong, enlarge, or add to, the three refinery petitions in this case were
    improvidently granted. Wynnewood last received a hardship exemption in 2012. 
    See supra
    § I.C.3. There is no evidence in the record that Woods Cross ever qualified for
    a hardship exemption, much less in the years preceding the refinery’s most recent
    application to suspend compliance. See 
    id. § I.C.2.
    Although Cheyenne presumably
    received an exemption in 2015, its original exemption expired no later than 2013.
    See 
    id. § I.C.1.
    At most, these Refineries sought to renew or restart their exemptions
    in 2016 or 2017. The amended Clean Air Act did not authorize the EPA to grant the
    petitions.
    2.     THE 2014 SMALL REFINERY RULE
    The EPA and the Refineries contend that we lack jurisdiction to address the
    foregoing issue as a result of the 2014 amendment to the regulatory definition of
    “small refinery.” The Clean Air Act generally provides that although challenges to
    final agency actions which are “locally or regionally applicable” must be filed “in the
    United States Court of Appeals for the appropriate circuit,” challenges to final
    agency actions identified by the EPA as “based on a determination of nationwide
    scope or effect” must be filed “in the United States Court of Appeals for the District
    of Columbia[.]” 42 U.S.C. § 7607(b). The statute also generally specifies that any
    petition for review under this subsection must be filed within 60 days from the date
    79
    notice of such promulgation, approval, or action appears in the Federal Register. Id.;
    see 
    also supra
    § III.A. The EPA and the Refineries assert that the Biofuels Coalition
    is effectively challenging the 2014 Small Refinery Rule, and the 60-day window for
    any such challenge (which could only be heard in the D.C. Circuit) closed long ago.
    The EPA communicated the basis for the 2014 Small Refinery Rule in a
    document entitled “Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: RFS Pathways II, and
    Technical Amendment to the RFS Standards and E15 Misfueling Mitigation
    Requirements.” 79 Fed. Reg. 42,128 (July 18, 2014). The EPA explained that in
    2010, the agency specified in the definition of “small refinery” that the 75,000 barrels
    per day (“bpd”) threshold determination “should be calculated based on information
    from calendar year 2006.” 
    Id. at 42,152.
    By 2014, however, the agency believed it
    was inappropriate that “refineries satisfying the 75,000 bpd threshold in 2006 should
    be eligible for extensions to their small refinery RFS exemption if they no longer
    meet the 75,000 bpd threshold.” 
    Id. Accordingly, the
    EPA proposed modifying the
    definition of “small refinery” so that the 75,000 bpd threshold applied “in 2006 and
    in all subsequent years.” 
    Id. The EPA
    also proposed specifying that “in order to
    qualify for an extension of its small refinery exemption,” a refinery had to qualify as
    a “small refinery” for “all full calendar years between 2006 and the date of
    submission of the petition for an extension of the exemption.” Id.5
    5
    The EPA’s original proposal appears at 78 Fed. Reg. 36,042 (proposed June
    14, 2013). See 
    id. at 36,063–64
    (“[W]e propose modifying the definition of small
    refinery so that the crude throughput threshold of 75,000 bpd must apply in 2006 and
    in all subsequent years.”).
    80
    The EPA received two comments supporting these proposed modifications, but
    ultimately decided to issue a different final rule. 
    Id. at 42,152,
    42,163. The EPA
    stated that “[a]fter further consideration of this matter,” it understood the agency’s
    initial proposal “could unfairly disqualify a refinery from eligibility for small
    refinery relief based only on a single year’s production since 2006.” 
    Id. at 42,152.
    The EPA thought it would be improper to treat differently “two refineries whose
    recent operating conditions were equivalent” if “one refinery exceeded 75,000 bpd in
    a single year as much as 8 years ago.” 
    Id. The agency
    therefore modified the final
    rule “to require that throughput be no greater than 75,000 barrels in the most recent
    full calendar year prior to an application for hardship.” 
    Id. The EPA
    emphasized
    that its “primary concern” was “treating refineries with similar performance the
    same,” and argued that the new changes “reasonably implement the statutory
    definition of ‘small refinery,’ which indicates that the 75,000 barrel aggregate daily
    crude oil throughput is for ‘a calendar year,’ but does not specify which calendar year
    should be the focus of inquiry.” 
    Id. While there
    may be overlap between the definition of a “small refinery” and
    the definition of an “extension,” the two issues are not the same. Qualifying as a
    “small refinery” is a necessary but not sufficient condition for an extension. In
    addition to meeting the definition of a “small refinery,” a petitioner must demonstrate
    that it will suffer disproportionate economic hardship if required to comply with the
    statute’s renewable fuels directive. 42 U.S.C. §§ 7545(o)(9)(A)(ii)(II),
    7545(o)(9)(B)(i). A petitioner also must show that it is seeking an “extension” of an
    81
    exemption, as opposed to a free-standing “exemption.” 
    Id. The 2014
    Small Refinery
    Rule establishes who may seek an extension of an exemption, but it does not resolve
    what constitutes a valid extension.
    This analysis is consistent with the preamble to and the text of 40 C.F.R. §
    80.1441. Both of those sources state that to qualify for an extension of the
    exemption, a “small refinery” must have average daily crude oil throughput of 75,000
    barrels or less in the prior year (in contrast to the previous version of the rule, which
    looked to an applicant’s throughput in 2006, and in contrast to the EPA’s opening
    proposal, which looked to an applicant’s throughput from 2006 to the date of the
    petition). E.g., 
    id. § 80.1441(e)(2)(iii).
    But neither the preamble nor the
    administrative rule contains any discussion of what the word “extension” actually
    means. The preamble and the administrative rule also contain no indication that
    statute’s use of the word “extension” is ambiguous; the ambiguity the EPA attempted
    to address expressly pertained to the phrase “small refinery.” See 79 Fed. Reg. at
    42,152 (noting that the statute does not specify which year should be the focus of the
    75,000 bpd small refinery calculation).
    Tellingly, the EPA itself previously did not treat the 2014 Small Refinery Rule
    as dispositive on the issue of an “extension” of the exemption. In 2016 – almost two
    years after the amendment reflected in 40 C.F.R. § 80.1441(e)(2)(iii) became
    effective, see 79 Fed. Reg. at 42,128 – the EPA did not mention its regulatory
    definition of “small refinery” when denying the Dakota Prairie petition. Dakota
    Prairie Appellate Petition at 8–9 of 17. If the 2014 Small Refinery Rule controlled
    82
    the meaning of “extension,” the EPA would have been required to adjudicate Dakota
    Prairie’s petition based on whether the refinery had average aggregate daily crude oil
    throughput of 75,000 barrels or less in 2014 and 2015. The EPA did not do that.
    Regardless, there is no challenge in the case at bar to the 2014 Small Refinery
    Rule. The Biofuels Coalition does not seek to nullify it. This court expresses no
    opinion on its validity. The only remedy sought by the Biofuels Coalition is to
    vacate the EPA’s decisions granting the 2016 and 2017 hardship petitions of
    Cheyenne, Woods Cross, and Wynnewood. That, in turn, limits our review and the
    scope of any relief we may grant. Cf. Alon Refining Krotz Springs, Inc. v. EPA, 
    936 F.3d 628
    , 643 (D.C. Cir. 2019) (“[T]he petitions for review filed in 2017 and 2018
    raise no back-door challenge to the 2010 regulation: the petitions contend that EPA
    in 2017 arbitrarily refused to take account of changing economic conditions, and they
    seek vacatur only of the 2017 order denying a new rulemaking going forward.”). The
    Biofuels Coalition’s petition to this court was neither misdirected to the wrong
    tribunal, nor untimely by virtue of 42 U.S.C. § 7607(b). We have jurisdiction to
    determine whether the EPA exceeded its authority in exempting three individual
    refineries in Oklahoma, Utah, and Wyoming.
    For similar reasons, we disagree with the EPA and the Refineries that Chevron
    deference, rather than Skidmore review, is in order. Their argument for Chevron
    deference assumes not only that the 2014 Small Refinery Rule is up for grabs in this
    litigation, but also that the Rule sets forth a permissible construction of the term
    “extension.” Neither assumption is accurate. As discussed, the validity of the 2014
    83
    Small Refinery Rule is not being disputed here, only the validity of unpublished EPA
    orders granting small refinery petitions that were not subject to notice-and-comment
    procedures. Even if the 2014 Small Refinery Rule reasonably fills a gap in the
    portion of the statute defining a “small refinery” by throughput in an unspecified
    “calendar year” (an issue we do not decide today), see 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(1)(K), the
    Rule does not explain or resolve any ambiguity with respect to the statutory
    definition of “extension.” We are thus bound by 
    Sinclair, 887 F.3d at 992
    –93, which
    evaluated informal adjudications of small refinery petitions under Skidmore.
    B.     DISPROPORTIONATE ECONOMIC HARDSHIP
    The Biofuels Coalition’s second statutory argument takes aim at the EPA’s
    construction of “disproportionate economic hardship.” As we explained in Sinclair,
    “hardship” is “suffering,” “privation,” or “adversity,” i.e., something that “makes
    one’s life hard or difficult[.]” 
    Id. at 9
    96 (citations omitted). Although the EPA’s
    comment in the Cheyenne order that relief may be warranted “even if the refinery’s
    operations are not significantly impaired” may prompt questions about the agency’s
    interpretation of “hardship,” see REC2 at 636 n.10, 646 n.41, the Biofuels Coalition
    does not dig deeper into the meaning of “suffering,” “privation,” or “adversity.” We
    assume for the sake of argument that at least part of the hardship the EPA sought to
    address, see infra § IV.C, was each refinery’s RFS compliance bill for the year in
    question. REC2 at 593, 596, 652, 688–89, 694.
    A “hardship” for a small refinery, however, is not enough. The hardship must
    be “disproportionate.” The amended Clean Air Act “commands the EPA to consider
    84
    the disproportionate impact of the RFS program, which inherently requires a
    comparative evaluation.” 
    Sinclair, 887 F.3d at 997
    (emphasis in original). “The
    EPA must compare the effect of the RFS Program compliance costs on a given
    refinery with the economic state of other refineries.” Id.; see also 
    Hermes, 787 F.3d at 575
    (reciting that “the relative costs of compliance alone cannot demonstrate
    economic hardship because all refineries face a direct cost associated with
    participation in the program”). The Biofuels Coalition claims that the EPA bypassed
    this part of the statutory test.
    We are satisfied that the EPA did not dispense with a comparative analysis in
    granting the Refineries’ extension petitions. Several metrics in the scoring system
    created by the DOE in 2011 are designed to be comparative. See 2011 DOE Study,
    REC1 at 490 (“[M]etrics were developed to evaluate whether each of the eighteen
    refineries that responded to the survey and fall within the scope of the study would
    suffer an economic hardship relative to an industry standard.”). For example, the
    Disproportional Economic Impact Metric of “Relative refining margin measure” is
    calculated as a three year average for all small refineries, and “[r]efineries with a
    negative net average margin were scored a 10; those below the industry average were
    scored a 5.” 
    Id. at 527
    (emphasis omitted). The Disproportional Economic Impact
    Metric of “In a niche market” also recognizes “higher than industry refining margins
    for the niche refiner.” 
    Id. at 527
    (emphasis omitted). The Disproportional Structural
    Impact Metric of “Renewable fuel blending (% of production)” further provides that
    refineries which “have greater than the industry average of approximately 32 percent
    85
    diesel production receive a score of 5; those at 40 percent diesel or above have a
    score of 10.” 
    Id. at 526
    (emphasis omitted).
    The EPA orders at issue are not as clear as they might have been, but they
    contain references to one or more of these comparative factors. As to Cheyenne, the
    EPA highlighted the refinery’s negative net refining margin, and considered the score
    of “10” assigned to the refinery by the DOE for diesel production. REC2 at 643, 645.
    As to Woods Cross, the EPA stressed the refinery’s low net refining margin, along
    with blending limitations. 
    Id. at 684.
    The EPA also took into account the score of
    “10” assigned to the refinery by the DOE for lacking a niche market. 
    Id. at 683.
    As
    to Wynnewood, the EPA again considered net refining margins, plus DOE rankings
    for diesel production and the presence or absence of a niche market. 
    Id. at 738
    –40.
    On this record, we cannot say that the EPA eliminated the requirement of consulting
    industry benchmarks when evaluating the Refineries’ assertions of disproportionate
    economic hardship.
    86
    C.     HARDSHIP FROM COMPLIANCE
    The Biofuels Coalition’s third statutory argument is that the EPA relied on
    disproportionate economic hardship suffered by the Refineries as a result of
    something other than RFS compliance. Part (A) of 42 U.S.C. § 7545(o)(9), in
    connection with the “[e]xtension of the exemption” that can be effected by a DOE
    study, directed the DOE to investigate “whether compliance with the requirements”
    of the RFS program “would impose a disproportionate economic hardship on small
    refineries.” 
    Id. § 7545(o)(9)(A)(ii)(I).
    The next clause in Part (A) corroborated that
    if a DOE study determined a small refinery “would be subject to a disproportionate
    economic hardship if required to comply” with RFS obligations, then the EPA was
    obligated to extend the blanket exemption for another two years. 
    Id. § 7545(o)(9)(A)(ii)(II).
    The plain language of these provisions indicates that
    renewable fuels compliance must be the cause of any disproportionate hardship.
    The EPA and the Refineries resist this construction of the law, pointing to
    language in Part (B) of the statute. Part (B) addresses case-by-case applications, and
    states that a small refinery may submit a petition “for an extension of the exemption
    under subparagraph (A) for the reason of disproportionate economic hardship.” 
    Id. § 7545(o)(9)(B)(i).
    “The phrase ‘by reason of’ denotes some form of causation,”
    Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Inst., 
    138 S. Ct. 1833
    , 1842 (2018), leading the EPA
    and the Refineries to argue that small refinery petitions need only be “for the reason
    of” economic hardship, not “for the reason of” RFS compliance.
    87
    This suggested interpretation does not view § 7545(o)(9)(B)(i) in context.
    Section 7545(o)(9)(B)(i) tells the reader that any individual exemption petition must
    be “for the reason of” (and thus caused by) disproportionate economic hardship, but
    it does not attempt to describe what must induce the hardship. Congress did that
    work in §§ 7545(o)(9)(A)(ii)(I)–(II), and then elucidated that the object of any
    petition under Part (B) is “an extension of the exemption under subparagraph (A)[.]”
    
    Id. § 7545(o)(9)(B)(i).
    Congress went on to remind the EPA that each case-by-case
    petition under Part (B) must be assessed in light of “the findings of the study under
    subparagraph (A)(ii) and other economic factors.” 
    Id. § 7545(o)(9)(B)(ii).
    Far from
    being diluted by Part (B), the hardship-caused-by-compliance requirement in Part (A)
    works together with it.
    The agency orders granting the Refineries’ extension petitions are not
    restricted to disproportionate economic hardship caused by RFS compliance. The
    EPA stated in the Woods Cross and Wynnewood orders that such hardship “can exist
    on the basis of adverse structural conditions alone,” followed by references to “[a]
    difficult year for the refining industry as a whole” and an “industry-wide downward
    trend” of lower net refining margins. REC2 at 682, 738–39. The EPA echoed in the
    Cheyenne order that disproportionate economic hardship may be the result of “a
    difficult year for the industry as a whole.” 
    Id. at 645.
    Macroeconomic conditions
    surely provide important context for assessing individual small refinery extension
    petitions. But hardships caused by overall economic conditions are different from
    hardships caused by compliance with statutory renewable fuel obligations.
    88
    Even if the EPA’s references to structural conditions and the industry as a
    whole could be characterized as inartful shorthand, the agency concluded that
    removing RFS obligations for Woods Cross in 2016 and Wynnewood in 2017 would
    relieve those Refineries’ disproportionate economic hardship “in whole or in part[.]”
    
    Id. at 684,
    741. This statement is indecipherable unless the EPA had in mind
    hardships beyond those caused by RFS compliance. The alleged hardships imposed
    on Woods Cross and Wynnewood were in the form of RFS compliance expenses. 
    Id. at 652,
    688–89. Each of those hardships was entirely eliminated once the EPA
    suspended the Refineries’ RFS obligations. The only way the EPA’s orders could
    have offered relief “in part” was if the agency considered disproportionate economic
    hardship occasioned by something other than complying with the amended Clean Air
    Act. Granting extensions of exemptions based at least in part on hardships not
    caused by RFS compliance was outside the scope of the EPA’s statutory authority.
    V.    THE BIOFUELS COALITION’S ADDITIONAL CHALLENGES
    Beyond statutory construction issues, the Biofuels Coalition contends that the
    EPA’s analysis of disproportionate economic hardship was arbitrary and capricious
    under the APA. See 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A). The Biofuels Coalition asserts the EPA
    did not recognize that (1) the Refineries’ economic status was relatively favorable,
    because Cheyenne had a one-time $654 million accounting write-down, Woods
    Cross’s three-year margin was higher than the industry average, and Wynnewood
    characterized $80.4 million in scheduled turnaround costs as direct operating
    expenses; (2) overall RIN purchase costs were relatively modest, especially in
    89
    comparison to the applicable state and local sales tax rate for each refinery; (3) the
    corporate parents of the Refineries had carryover RINs which could be used to offset
    the Refineries’ yearly RFS obligations, and regardless, the financial health of the
    parents should have been factored in to each hardship determination; and (4) prior
    agency studies and other documents showed the Refineries could recoup RFS
    compliance costs via higher consumer prices.
    Our review is “narrow” and “deferential” under the APA’s “arbitrary and
    capricious” standard. Dep’t of Commerce v. New York, 
    139 S. Ct. 2551
    , 2569 (2019).
    An agency need only “examine the relevant data and articulate a satisfactory
    explanation for its action including a rational connection between the facts found and
    the choice made.” Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n of the U.S. v. State Farm Mut. Auto.
    Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43 (1983) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). A
    decision is arbitrary and capricious if an agency “has relied on factors which
    Congress has not intended it to consider, entirely failed to consider an important
    aspect of the problem, offered an explanation for its decision that runs counter to the
    evidence before the agency, or is so implausible that it could not be ascribed to a
    difference in view or the product of agency expertise.” Id.; see also Dine Citizens
    Against Ruining Our Env’t v. Bernhardt, 
    923 F.3d 831
    , 839 (10th Cir. 2019) (adding
    that an agency acts arbitrarily and capriciously if it makes “a clear error of
    judgment,” but recognizing that a “presumption of validity attaches to the agency
    action” and the burden of proof lies with those challenging such action).
    90
    This forgiving standard of review dooms almost all of the Biofuels Coalition’s
    objections. Right or wrong, the EPA’s overall assessment of the Refineries’
    economic status was not arbitrary. There is no evidence in the record that
    Cheyenne’s write-down and Wynnewood’s characterization of expenses were
    improper accounting maneuvers. Cheyenne suffered a loss and had other negative
    financial characteristics in 2016 even if the write-down is removed from the
    equation, and Wynnewood had certain financial features from 2016 to 2017 which
    were consistent with the EPA’s analysis. Woods Cross’s net refining margin may
    have been above average in the aggregate, but that margin sharply declined in 2016.
    Nothing in the amended Clean Air Act or in existing regulations required the EPA to
    base its decisions on tax rates or parent company information. As a result, it is hard
    to see how the parental materials for which the Biofuels Coalition seeks judicial
    notice could show an abuse of discretion. In any event, with only one exception,
    those judicial notice motions are denied. See infra § VI.
    There is one objection presented by the Biofuels Coalition, however, that
    warrants intervention: The EPA ignored or failed to provide reasons for deviating
    from prior studies showing that RIN purchase costs do not disproportionately harm
    refineries which are not vertically integrated. This oversight is significant even with
    deferential review, in part because administrative agencies “are free to change their
    existing policies as long as they provide a reasoned explanation for the change.”
    Encino Motorcars, LLC v. Navarro, 
    136 S. Ct. 2117
    , 2125 (2016). An agency must
    “display awareness that it is changing position” and “show that there are good
    91
    reasons for the new policy.” FCC v. Fox Television Stations, Inc., 
    556 U.S. 502
    , 515
    (2009) (emphasis omitted). Likewise, if the new policy “rests upon factual findings
    that contradict those” upon which the prior policy was based, the agency must
    provide a reasoned explanation “for disregarding facts and circumstances that
    underlay or were engendered by the prior policy.” 
    Id. at 515–16.
    “It follows that an
    unexplained inconsistency in agency policy is a reason for holding an interpretation
    to be an arbitrary and capricious change from agency practice.” Encino 
    Motorcars, 136 S. Ct. at 2126
    (citation, brackets, and internal quotation marks omitted).
    The EPA has dedicated a considerable amount of attention to whether
    unintegrated refineries can recoup RFS compliance costs by passing them on to
    customers. The agency published a study addressing this topic in 2015. See Dallas
    Burkholder, EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality, A Preliminary
    Assessment of RIN Market Dynamics, RIN Prices, and Their Effects (May 14, 2015)
    (“Burkholder Study”), REC1 at 410–40. The EPA concluded that “[m]erchant
    refiners, who largely purchase separated RINs to meet their RFS obligations,” are
    “recovering these costs in the sale price of their products.” 
    Id. at 412.
    The EPA
    acknowledged that “there is a direct and obvious cost” in obtaining RINs for
    merchant refiners, who “do not own fuel blending infrastructure” and “generally
    purchase RINs from fuel blenders[.]” 
    Id. at 437.
    Still, the EPA found that refineries
    “are generally able to recover the cost of meeting their RIN obligations in the price of
    their petroleum blendstocks.” 
    Id. at 437–38,
    440.
    92
    The agency revisited this topic in 2017. In response to multiple petitions
    seeking to change RFS “point of obligation” rules, the EPA cited the Burkholder
    Study and repeated that “merchant refiners are generally not uniquely adversely
    impacted (relative to integrated refiners).” Denial of Petitions for Rulemaking to
    Change the RFS Point of Obligation, EPA-420-R-17-008 (November 2017), at 22 &
    n.57, available at https://nepis.epa.gov (“EPA Point of Obligation Denial,” last
    visited January 17, 2020). The EPA similarly reiterated that while merchant refiners
    are “directly paying for the RINs they buy on the market, they are passing that cost
    along in the form of higher wholesale gasoline and diesel prices.” 
    Id. at 23;
    see also
    
    id. (explaining that
    “[e]mpirical data” support the argument that RIN purchasers
    “recover the cost of these RINs in the price of the petroleum blendstocks they sell”).
    The EPA reviewed studies submitted by commenters purporting to show “an inability
    to ‘pass-through’ the cost of the RFS program to consumers,” but the agency did “not
    find these assessments convincing.” 
    Id. at 23–24.
    In contrast, the EPA found
    “compelling” other papers demonstrating that “the ability of the merchant refiners to
    recover the cost of the RINs was complete (not statistically different than 100%) and
    occurred quickly (within 2 business days).” 
    Id. at 25.
    At least through the first quarter of 2019, the EPA continued to affirm its
    policy position that merchant refiners pass through most or all of their RIN purchase
    costs. The agency reported in March of 2019 that it “conducted an extensive analysis
    of RIN prices and market dynamics. After studying the data, we concluded that RIN
    prices generally reflected market fundamentals and that obligated parties (including
    93
    parties that purchase separated RINs) recover the cost of RINs in the market price of
    gasoline and diesel fuel they sell.” Modifications to Fuel Regulations To Provide
    Flexibility for E15; Modifications to RFS RIN Market Regulations, 84 Fed. Reg.
    10,584, 10,607 (proposed Mar. 21, 2019). The EPA announced the same conclusion
    in late 2018, adding that “[e]ven if we were to assume the cost of acquiring RINs
    were not recovered by obligated parties,” a cost-to-sales ratio test “shows that the
    costs to small entities of the RFS standards are far less than 1 percent of the value of
    their sales.” EPA 2019 Standards, 83 Fed. Reg. at 63,742.
    The EPA did not analyze the possibility of RIN cost recoupment when it
    granted the Refineries’ extension petitions. There is no question that the EPA was
    aware of the Burkholder Study, because the agency cited it in the background section
    of the Cheyenne order. REC2 at 634 n.5. The EPA has also embraced the pass-
    through principle in other litigation, including when the agency defended its decision
    to retain existing point of obligation rules. See Alon 
    Refining, 936 F.3d at 649
    (“According to the EPA, refiners recover the cost of the RINs they purchase by
    passing that cost along in the form of higher prices for the petroleum based fuels they
    produce.”) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). Nor can there be serious
    debate that near-total RIN cost recovery within two business days would be material
    to any finding of “disproportionate economic hardship” for a refinery. Yet the
    agency did not explain whether, to what extent, or why the pass-through principle
    was inapplicable to Cheyenne. 
    Id. at 644–45.
    The EPA’s Woods Cross order
    contains no pass-through analysis either. 
    Id. at 684–85.
    94
    Especially glaring is the lack of any particularized pass-through analysis by
    the EPA for Wynnewood. Under the header of “RIN net revenue or cost,”
    Wynnewood acknowledged and attempted to distinguish the Burkholder Study in its
    hardship petition. 
    Id. at 694.
    Despite Wynnewood’s explicit attempt to differentiate
    the Burkholder Study, however, the EPA did not address this topic when granting the
    refinery’s petition. The DOE did not score the category of “RINs net revenue or
    cost” for Wynnewood, so the EPA could not have implicitly relied on the findings of
    that other agency. 
    Id. at 740
    & n.6. The EPA stated that it generally considered “all
    of the information submitted by a petitioner,” but in the process of extending
    Wynnewood’s exemption, the agency did not discuss any arguments for or against
    applying the pass-through principle. 
    Id. at 740
    –41. At best, therefore, the EPA
    ignored its own pass-through studies and analysis. At worst, the EPA abandoned its
    prior studies and analysis sub silentio. In either scenario, the agency’s action was
    arbitrary and capricious.
    Cheyenne and Woods Cross argue in this litigation that it would have been
    improper for the EPA to rely on a general pass-through principle from the Burkholder
    Study in adjudicating specific refinery petitions. Cheyenne and Woods Cross focus
    on the following passage from the EPA’s 2017 paper:
    While the EPA continues to believe that refiners, including merchant
    refiners, are generally able to recover the cost of RINs through prices
    they receive for the petroleum blendstocks they sell, we also
    acknowledge that there are many diverse factors that impact each
    individual refiner’s profitability and their ability to recover their full
    cost of production (including crude oil costs, labor costs, capital costs,
    regulatory and compliance costs, etc.). These factors include, but are
    95
    not limited to, the refinery’s location, their access to various types of
    crude oil, the local demand and competition for refined products.
    EPA Point of Obligation Denial at 27, cited in HollyFrontier Cheyenne &
    HollyFrontier Woods Cross Br. at viii, 53. Cheyenne and Woods Cross supplement
    this argument by citing Ergon-W. Va., Inc. v. EPA, 
    896 F.3d 600
    (4th Cir. 2018), in
    which the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit held it was arbitrary
    and capricious for the EPA to rely solely on the Burkholder Study without analyzing
    specific evidence presented by a small refinery suggesting an inability to “pass the
    RIN costs on to purchasers because of the local market’s low acceptance of blended
    diesel.” 
    Id. at 613.
    We need not decide whether we agree with the Fourth Circuit’s decision,
    because this case involves a different issue. The problem here is not that the EPA
    abused its discretion by assigning too much weight to the Burkholder Study, or to the
    many other academic papers and studies indicating that merchant refineries typically
    recoup their RIN purchase costs through higher petroleum fuel prices. Nor is the
    problem necessarily that the EPA committed reversible errors in assessing the
    “diverse factors” potentially impacting an individual refiner’s ability to pass RIN
    costs on to customers. The difficulty is that the EPA did not address the applicability
    of the pass-through principle at all, even when one of the Refineries attempted to
    prove individual circumstances warranting the principle’s suspension. We do not
    know whether the pass-through studies previously performed or cited by the EPA
    matched up with each refinery’s individual conditions (thereby precluding a finding
    96
    of disproportionate economic hardship), because the agency declined to address the
    issue. The EPA thus “failed to consider an important aspect of the problem,” Motor
    
    Vehicle, 463 U.S. at 43
    , and its silence ran counter to the record.
    VI.   MOTIONS
    In a pair of motions, the Biofuels Coalition requests judicial notice of certain
    documents. These documents include Forms 10-K for the Refineries’ parent
    organizations, the EPA’s Point of Obligation Denial, a brief submitted by the EPA in
    other litigation, memoranda from EPA and National Economic Council officials, and
    an email thread among EPA employees. With the exception of the Point of
    Obligation Denial, this opinion relies on none of these materials. We therefore deny
    as moot the Biofuels Coalition’s judicial notice motions as to all but one of the
    proffered documents.
    As to the Point of Obligation Denial, we grant the request for notice to the
    extent necessary. The document is publicly available on the EPA’s website.
    Information on a government website is subject to notice if, among other things, it is
    “not subject to reasonable factual dispute” and part of a source “whose accuracy
    cannot reasonably be questioned[.]” New Mexico ex rel. Richardson v. Bureau of
    Land Mgmt., 
    565 F.3d 683
    , 702 n.22 (10th Cir. 2009). Although the EPA says the
    statements in the Point of Obligation Denial were made in the context of a different
    proceeding, the agency “does not dispute” their accuracy. EPA Judicial Notice
    Opposition at 9.
    97
    Citing cases such as Fla. Power & Light Co. v. Lorion, 
    470 U.S. 729
    , 743–44
    (1985), the EPA and the Refineries contend that judicial review in matters governed
    by the APA usually is limited to the existing administrative record. We do not
    question that general principle. Even so, “we have recognized that consideration of
    extra-record materials is appropriate in ‘extremely limited’ circumstances,” such as
    “where the agency ignored relevant factors it should have considered[.]” Lee v. U.S.
    Air Force, 
    354 F.3d 1229
    , 1242 (10th Cir. 2004) (citation omitted). That is precisely
    the purpose for which we have examined the Point of Obligation Denial. No more
    and no less, the document reflects a relevant policy position that the agency did not
    specifically analyze when granting the Refineries’ extension petitions. Additional
    special circumstances are that (1) the Biofuels Coalition had no opportunity to
    participate in compiling the administrative record; and (2) we take judicial notice
    only of the existence of the statements in the Point of Obligation Denial, not of their
    substantive truth.
    Finally, an organization known as the American Fuel & Petrochemical
    Manufacturers (“AFPM”) asks us to consider its amicus curiae brief in support of the
    Refineries. AFPM describes itself as “a trade association whose members comprise
    nearly all the petroleum refining capacity in the United States,” including several
    members which “operate small refineries” receiving “exemptions” from RFS
    requirements. AFPM Motion at 2–3. We grant AFPM’s request. See Fed. R. App.
    P. 29(a)(3) (stating that a motion for leave must indicate “the movant’s interest” and
    “the reason why an amicus brief is desirable and why the matters asserted are
    98
    relevant to the disposition of the case”). The brief submitted by AFPM has been
    reviewed by the court and will be considered filed as of the date of AFPM’s motion
    for leave. No refiling is necessary.
    VII.    CONCLUSION
    For the foregoing reasons, we vacate the EPA orders granting the exemption
    extension petitions of Cheyenne, Woods Cross, and Wynnewood. We remand these
    matters to the EPA for further proceedings consistent with this opinion. The Biofuels
    Coalition’s judicial notice motions are denied, subject to one exception explained
    above. AFPM’s motion for leave to file an amicus brief is granted. To the extent
    consistent with this opinion, we affirm our prior confidentiality orders in this case,
    meaning that any item previously placed under seal by the parties will remain under
    seal.
    99