Kayle Barrington Bates v. Secretary, Florida Department of Corrections ( 2014 )


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  •                Case: 13-11882       Date Filed: 09/05/2014      Page: 1 of 80
    [PUBLISH]
    IN THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE ELEVENTH CIRCUIT
    ________________________
    No. 13-11882
    ________________________
    D.C. Docket No. 5:09-cv-00081-MCR
    KAYLE BARRINGTON BATES,
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    versus
    SECRETARY, FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS,
    Respondent-Appellee.
    ________________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of Florida
    ________________________
    (September 5, 2014)
    Before CARNES, Chief Judge, TJOFLAT and WILSON, Circuit Judges.
    ED CARNES, Chief Judge, and TJOFLAT, Circuit Judge:1
    1
    This opinion was written jointly by Chief Judge Carnes and Judge Tjoflat. Cf. Florida ex
    rel. Atty. Gen. v. U.S. Dep’t of Health & Human Servs., 
    648 F.3d 1235
    , 1240 n.1 (11th Cir.
    2011) (jointly authored opinion); Waters v. Thomas, 
    46 F.3d 1506
    , 1509 n.1 (11th Cir. 1995) (en
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014      Page: 2 of 80
    On the afternoon of June 14, 1982, Janet White, a State Farm Insurance
    clerk, returned from lunch around 1:00 p.m., as was her normal practice. As she
    came into the office, she answered the phone. Unknown to her, she was not alone.
    She knew that Kayle Barrington Bates had stopped by the office earlier that day,
    talked with her, and left. She did not know that, having seen that she was alone in
    the office, Bates had returned to the area and parked his truck in the woods some
    distance behind the building where it could not be seen and waited. She did not
    know that while she was out at lunch he had broken into the office and was there
    waiting for her to return. When Bates surprised White she let out a “bone-chilling
    scream” and fought for her life. He overpowered her and forcibly took her from
    the office building to the woods where he savagely beat, strangled, and attempted
    to rape her, leaving approximately 30 contusions, abrasions, and lacerations on
    various parts of her face and body.
    The state trial judge in his sentencing order found that during the attack
    Bates had stolen White’s diamond ring “by tearing it from her left ring finger” and
    in the process severely injured her. “While being attacked, robbed, bruised,
    lacerated, strangled and stabbed [she] was still alive.” Death resulted from the stab
    banc) (jointly authored opinion). Part III was authored by Judge Tjoflat, while the remainder
    was authored by Chief Judge Carnes.
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    wounds but was not immediate; it “came only some five to ten minutes after this
    brutal and senseless attack.”
    I.
    As a result of his crimes against Janet White, Bates is now on death row in
    Florida. This is his appeal from the denial of federal habeas relief. In accordance
    with the certificate of appealability that we granted, Bates challenges his
    convictions and capital sentence on two grounds. As to his convictions, Bates
    contends that his trial counsel was constitutionally ineffective for failing to object
    to an opening prayer, which was delivered in the presence of the jury venire by a
    minister of the church where the victim’s funeral service had been held. As to his
    death sentence, he relies on Simmons v. South Carolina, 
    512 U.S. 154
    , 
    114 S.Ct. 2187
     (1994), to contend that his due process rights were violated at his capital
    resentencing proceeding when the trial court refused to instruct the jury that Bates
    had agreed to waive his eligibility for parole, and that he had already been
    sentenced to two life terms plus fifteen years on his other counts of conviction,
    which would run consecutively to any sentence imposed for first-degree murder.
    A.
    It was in 1982 that Bates was indicted in Bay County, Florida, for the first-
    degree murder, kidnapping, sexual battery, and armed robbery of Janet Renee
    White. Before the beginning of jury selection for the 1983 trial, the judge asked
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    those present in the courtroom, including the members of the jury venire, to stand
    while Reverend N.B. Langford of the First Baptist Church opened the proceedings
    with a prayer. Reverend Langford then gave the following invocation:
    May we pray together. Father, this is a beautiful day that you’ve
    given to each of us, and we thank you for the privilege that’s ours to
    enjoy all the bounties that you’ve given to each of us. Lord, we pray
    for the seriousness of the situation with which we’re confronted, and
    we ask for your wisdom and your guidance, Father, upon all who are
    involved, we pray for the Judge as he presides for your special
    wisdom and for your guidance to do upon his life. Thank you, Father,
    that we live in a country that has freedom for all, and we ask now for
    your leadership and your blessings upon the judicial system, for in
    Christ’s name I pray, Amen.
    Bates’ court-appointed counsel, Theodore Bowers, did not object to the prayer and
    the court proceeded with jury selection. The next day the prosecution called its
    first witness, the victim’s husband. He testified, among other things, that he had
    last seen his wife at the First Baptist Church as her coffin was being closed during
    her funeral service. Bowers did not object to that testimony.
    The evidence of guilt presented against Bates during the three-day trial was
    overwhelming, as the Florida Supreme Court’s summary of it shows:
    Bates was arrested at the scene of the crime just minutes after the
    victim’s death. He had the victim’s diamond ring in his pocket, and
    he tried to conceal it from law enforcement officers. A watch pin
    consistent with Bates’ watch was found inside the victim’s office, and
    Bates’ watch was missing a watch pin. Footprints consistent with
    Bates’ shoes were found behind the State Farm office building.
    Bates’ hat was found near the victim’s body. Two green fibers were
    found on the victim’s clothing — one on her blouse and one on her
    skirt — that were consistent with the material that Bates’ pants were
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    made of. A knife case was found near the victim’s body, and that case
    was identified by various witnesses as being the exact type that Bates
    wore. The victim’s two fatal stab wounds were consistent with the
    type of buck knife that Bates carried in that case. The consistency
    between the stab wounds and Bates’ knife was striking; the wounds
    were four inches deep, and Bates’ knife was four inches long; the
    width of the wounds was consistent with the width of Bates’ knife;
    and as was testified to at the resentencing, there were abrasions at the
    bottom of the wound that were consistent with marks that Bates’ knife
    would have made. Bates’ statements to investigators and at his trial
    also placed him either at the scene of the crime or directly involved in
    the victim’s murder. Bates stated during a telephone call to his wife
    after his arrest that he killed a woman.
    Bates v. State, 
    3 So. 3d 1091
    , 1099 (Fla. 2009).
    The jury convicted Bates of first-degree murder, kidnapping, armed robbery,
    and attempted sexual battery (a lesser-included offense of the crime of sexual
    battery that was charged in the indictment). It recommended a sentence of death
    on the murder count. The judge followed the jury’s recommendation, sentencing
    Bates to death for the first-degree murder of White, and imposing two life
    sentences plus fifteen years imprisonment on the three remaining counts of
    conviction, all of which were to run consecutively to each other. In support of the
    death sentence the judge found five statutory aggravating circumstances and one
    statutory mitigating circumstance. See Bates v. State, 
    465 So. 2d 490
    , 492 (Fla.
    1985).
    On direct appeal, the Florida Supreme Court affirmed Bates’ convictions and
    non-capital sentences, but vacated the death sentence and remanded for
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    resentencing on the murder conviction because the trial court had erroneously
    found two aggravating circumstances. 
    Id.
     at 492–93. On remand the trial judge
    determined that the remaining aggravating circumstances still outweighed the
    statutory and non-statutory mitigating ones, and he again sentenced Bates to death.
    The Florida Supreme Court affirmed. Bates v. State, 
    506 So. 2d 1033
     (Fla.), cert.
    denied, 
    484 U.S. 873
    , 
    108 S.Ct. 212
     (1987).
    B.
    After his death warrant was signed in 1989, Bates filed a state post-
    conviction motion under Florida Rule of Criminal Procedure 3.850. Among other
    claims for collateral relief, Bates asserted a claim under the First Amendment’s
    Establishment Clause, contending that his convictions and capital sentence were
    improperly obtained because the trial began with a prayer from the victim’s
    minister. He also raised a related Sixth Amendment claim of ineffective assistance
    of counsel based on his trial attorney’s failure to object to the Reverend’s opening
    invocation. The trial judge recused himself from ruling on the Rule 3.850 motion
    and was replaced by a different judge. At an evidentiary hearing on that motion,
    Bates’ trial counsel testified that he thought “nothing of the prayer” because it
    neither encouraged the jury to convict nor acquit Bates. However, in a self-
    described act of “pure speculation,” counsel opined that the prayer could have
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    prejudiced Bates given the “racial tension” involved in the case. (Bates is black
    and his victim was white.)
    The state trial court summarily rejected Bates’ claims regarding the prayer,
    but granted him a new sentence hearing based on defense counsel’s ineffective
    assistance during the second penalty hearing before the jury. See Bates v. Dugger,
    
    604 So. 2d 457
    , 458–59 (Fla. 1992). The Florida Supreme Court affirmed that
    decision in all respects, including the denial of Bates’ dual challenges arising from
    the prayer. The court rejected Bates’ substantive Establishment Clause challenge
    as procedurally barred because it was not properly raised at trial, and it summarily
    rejected “[a]ny allegations of ineffectiveness raised incidentally” to that
    substantive claim as being “without merit.” 
    Id.
     at 459 & n.4.
    C.
    Before Bates’ 1995 resentencing proceeding (his third sentence proceeding
    before a jury), the Florida legislature amended 
    Fla. Stat. § 775.082
     to provide that
    a defendant convicted of capital murder could either be sentenced to death or to
    life imprisonment without the possibility of parole. See 
    Fla. Stat. § 775.082
    (1)
    (1995) (“A person who has been convicted of a capital felony shall be punished by
    death . . ., otherwise such person shall be punished by life imprisonment and . . .
    shall be ineligible for parole.”). The revised statute, which became effective on
    May 25, 1994, differed from the capital sentencing scheme in effect at the time of
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    Bates’ 1982 crimes, under which life imprisonment with the possibility of parole
    after 25 years was the only alternative to death for the crime of first-degree murder.
    See 
    id.
     § 775.082 (1983); see also Hudson v. State, 
    708 So. 2d 256
    , 262 (Fla.
    1998).
    Bates was concerned that the jury might sentence him to death to avoid the
    possibility that under a life sentence he could eventually be released from prison.
    He sought to avoid that by having the amended version of § 775.082, which
    provided life without parole as the only alternative to a death sentence, applied to
    him and the jury instructed that it could impose a life without parole sentence in
    lieu of death. Bates stated that he would waive any rights he had to parole
    eligibility under the pre-amendment version of § 775.082, along with any claim
    that retroactively applying the revised statute to his criminal conduct would violate
    ex post facto principles. The trial court denied Bates’ request because life without
    the possibility of parole was not an available sentence at the time he committed
    first-degree murder, and he could not unilaterally elect to receive a sentence not
    authorized by state law. Bates also asked the trial court to inform the jury that he
    had already been sentenced to consecutive life terms plus fifteen years on his other
    counts of conviction, but the court denied that request as well.
    After three hours of deliberations, the latest resentencing jury submitted the
    following note to the trial judge: “Are we limited to the two recommendations of
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    life with minimum 25 years or death penalty. Yes. No. Or can we recommend
    life without a possibility of parole. Yes. No.” Instead of answering “yes” or “no,”
    the trial court referred the jury to its written instructions. After further
    deliberations, the jury recommended a death sentence by a vote of nine to three.
    The trial court followed that recommendation and, for the third time, sentenced
    Bates to death for the first-degree murder of White.
    Bates appealed his latest death sentence to the Florida Supreme Court,
    contending that the trial court’s refusal to instruct the jury that life without the
    possibility of parole was an available alternative to death violated due process and
    denied him a fundamentally fair capital sentence proceeding. He also challenged
    the trial court’s refusal to inform the jury about his other consecutive sentences.
    The Florida Supreme Court rejected those claims on the merits and affirmed the
    death sentence. Bates v. State, 
    750 So. 2d 6
     (Fla. 1999). In doing so the court held
    that the amended version of 
    Fla. Stat. § 775.082
     did not apply retroactively to
    crimes committed before its effective date of May 25, 1994, because there was no
    clear legislative intent to overcome the presumption that state laws apply only
    prospectively. Id. at 10; see also State v. Lavazzoli, 
    434 So. 2d 321
    , 323 (Fla.
    1983) (“It is a well-established rule of construction that in the absence of clear
    legislative expression to the contrary, a law is presumed to operate
    prospectively.”). In view of that, the court concluded that Bates’ attempted
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    waivers of parole eligibility and any ex post facto claims were “of no
    consequence” because he could not “by agreement confer on the [trial] court the
    authority to impose an illegal sentence,” meaning one which was not statutorily
    authorized at the time he committed first-degree murder. Bates, 
    750 So. 2d at
    10–
    11 (quotation marks omitted).
    The Florida Supreme Court also held that Bates was not entitled to apprise
    the jury of his other consecutive sentences because that “evidence would open the
    door to conjecture and speculation as to how much [actual prison] time a prisoner
    serves of a sentence,” which can be affected by “many factors other than the length
    of the sentence imposed by the sentencing court,” and thus would “distract [the]
    jurors from the relevant issue of what is the appropriate sentence for the murder
    conviction.” 
    Id. at 11
    .
    Thereafter, Bates filed another state post-conviction motion under Rule
    3.850 challenging both his convictions and his latest death sentence, although that
    filing did not raise any issues involved in this appeal. The state trial court denied
    that motion and the Florida Supreme Court affirmed the denial. See Bates, 
    3 So. 3d 1091
    .
    D.
    Bates filed his federal habeas petition in March 2009, asserting a large
    number of constitutional claims, including the two at issue in this appeal: (1) that
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    his trial counsel rendered ineffective assistance in failing to object to the prayer in
    the presence of the jury venire before voir dire, particularly once the victim’s
    husband gave testimony implying that she had been a member of that minister’s
    congregation; and (2) that his due process rights under Simmons were violated
    when, at his 1995 resentencing, the trial court refused to instruct the jury about his
    parole ineligibility. In an order issued on September 28, 2012, the district court
    denied the 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
     petition, finding that his ineffective assistance claim
    was procedurally barred and that the Florida Supreme Court’s rejection of his
    parole ineligibility claim was entitled to deference under the standards prescribed
    by the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (AEDPA).
    Bates filed a motion to alter or amend the district court’s judgment under
    Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 59(e), contending that the court had erroneously
    found that his ineffective assistance claim was procedurally defaulted. The court
    granted the Rule 59(e) motion, concluding that the Florida Supreme Court had
    indeed reached the merits of that claim, but determined that federal habeas relief
    was still not warranted because the state court’s merits determination was entitled
    to AEDPA deference. We later granted Bates a COA on two issues: (1) whether
    trial counsel rendered ineffective assistance in failing to object to the prayer; and
    (2) whether “the trial court’s refusal to instruct the jury about [Bates’] parole
    eligibility, including the effect of consecutive sentences he had left to serve, was
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    contrary to law established by the United States Supreme Court or objectively
    unreasonable in light of such precedent.”
    II.
    We review de novo the denial of Bates’ § 2254 petition. Our review, like
    the district court’s, is “greatly circumscribed” by the “highly deferential” standards
    mandated by AEDPA. See Wood v. Allen, 
    542 F.3d 1281
    , 1285 (11th Cir. 2008)
    (quotation marks omitted). Under that statute, a federal court may not grant habeas
    relief on a claim adjudicated on the merits in state court unless the state court’s
    decision “was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of, clearly
    established [f]ederal law, as determined by the Supreme Court of the United
    States,” or “was based on an unreasonable determination of the facts in light of the
    evidence presented in the State court proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d).
    The phrase “clearly established federal law” refers only to “the holdings, as
    opposed to the dicta, of [the Supreme] Court’s decisions as of the time of the
    relevant state-court decision.” Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 412, 
    120 S.Ct. 1495
    , 1523 (2000); see also Putman v. Head, 
    268 F.3d 1223
    , 1241 (11th Cir. 2011)
    (“Clearly established federal law is not the case law of the lower federal courts,
    including this Court.”). A state court decision is “contrary to” clearly established
    federal law if it either “applies a rule that contradicts the governing law set forth in
    [Supreme Court] cases” or “confronts a set of facts that are materially
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    indistinguishable from a decision of [the Supreme] Court and nevertheless arrives
    at a [different] result.” Williams, 
    529 U.S. at
    405–06, 
    120 S.Ct. at
    1519–20. An
    “unreasonable application” of Supreme Court precedent, by contrast, occurs when
    the state court “correctly identifies the governing legal rule but applies it
    unreasonably to the facts of a particular prisoner’s case.” 
    Id.
     at 407–08, 
    120 S.Ct. at 1520
    . “[A]n unreasonable application of federal law is different from an
    incorrect application of federal law.” 
    Id. at 410
    , 
    120 S.Ct. at 1522
    . So long as
    “fairminded jurists could disagree on the correctness of the state court’s decision,”
    a federal habeas court may not grant relief. Harrington v. Richter, — U.S. —, 
    131 S.Ct. 770
    , 786 (2011) (quotation marks omitted).
    III.
    Bates contends that his trial counsel was constitutionally ineffective for
    failing to object to Reverend Langford’s opening prayer, either when it was
    delivered before voir dire in the presence of the venire or after the victim’s
    husband testified that her funeral service was held at the Reverend’s church.
    Bates insists that the prayer violated the First Amendment’s Establishment Clause
    because “there was no constitutionally legitimate basis for the trial judge to inject”
    religion into the proceedings, and that it substantially impaired his due process
    right to a fair trial because it purportedly urged the jury to base its verdict on divine
    wisdom and guidance instead of the evidence adduced at trial.
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    Under clearly established federal law, a petitioner asserting a claim of
    ineffective assistance of counsel must demonstrate both deficient performance and
    prejudice—that counsel’s performance “fell below an objective standard of
    reasonableness” and that “there is a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s
    unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding would have been different.”
    Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 687–88, 694, 
    104 S.Ct. 2052
    , 2064, 2068
    (1984). “Judicial scrutiny of counsel’s performance must be highly deferential,”
    indulging the “strong presumption that counsel’s conduct [fell] within the wide
    range of reasonable professional assistance” and bearing “in mind that counsel’s
    function . . . is to make the adversarial testing process work in the particular case.”
    
    Id.
     at 689–90, 
    104 S.Ct. at
    2065–66. Because Strickland demands an “objective
    inquiry into the reasonableness of counsel’s performance—an inquiry which asks
    only whether ‘some reasonable lawyer’ could have pursued the challenged course
    of conduct—a petitioner bears the heavy burden of showing that ‘no competent
    counsel would have taken the action that his counsel did take.’” Gissendaner v.
    Seaboldt, 
    735 F.3d 1311
    , 1323 (11th Cir. 2013) (quoting Chandler v. United
    States, 
    218 F.3d 1305
    , 1315 & n.16 (11th Cir. 2000) (en banc)). And where the
    highly deferential standards mandated by Strickland and AEDPA both apply, the
    combined effect is a doubly deferential form of review which asks “not whether
    counsel’s actions were reasonable,” but whether “there is any reasonable argument
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    that counsel satisfied Strickland’s deferential standards.” Harrington, 
    131 S.Ct. at 788
    .
    A.
    Initially, we must untangle two versions of Bates’s claim under Strickland.
    There is, first, the version Bates presented in his habeas petition, and then there is
    the version Judge Wilson, in his concurring opinion, proposes on Bates’s behalf.
    Both versions concern the following sequence of events at Bates’s trial. First,
    before jury selection, the trial judge invited a minister—introduced as “Reverend
    Langford of the First Baptist Church”—to open the proceedings with a prayer.
    One day later, at the guilt phase of the trial, the victim’s husband testified that he
    last saw his wife “at First Baptist Church before they closed the coffin.” Bates’s
    trial attorney did not object to either event. Both Bates and Judge Wilson say the
    attorney should have objected, though for different reasons.
    B.
    Bates, for his part, argues that the pretrial prayer violated the Establishment
    Clause and that his lawyer, Theodore Bowers, rendered ineffective assistance of
    counsel for not recognizing and objecting to the Establishment Clause violation.
    See Pet’r’s Br. at 27 (“[T]here was no constitutionally legitimate basis for the trial
    judge to inject religious prayers into the jury’s choice of life or death in a capital
    case.”). To support that claim, Bates cites cases from various jurisdictions
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    involving religious invocations at public assemblies, and he consistently describes
    his Strickland claim as being derivative of an underlying Establishment Clause
    violation.
    The trouble for Bates here is that the Establishment Clause is not a trial
    right; a violation of the Establishment Clause at trial does not, standing alone,
    enable a criminal defendant to challenge his conviction. A proceeding might be
    thoroughly sectarian without being unfair for due process purposes, just as a
    proceeding might be thoroughly unfair without being violative of the
    Establishment Clause. They are simply different legal standards. To be sure, a
    person compelled by the state to be present at a sectarian proceeding can have
    standing to pursue a civil challenge to that proceeding under the Establishment
    Clause, see, e.g., McCreary Cnty. v. ACLU of Kentucky, 
    545 U.S. 844
    , 
    125 S. Ct. 2722
    , 
    162 L. Ed. 2d 729
     (2005) (considering a civil challenge to officials posting
    the Ten Commandments on the walls of courthouses); North Carolina Civil
    Liberties Union Legal Foundation v. Constangy, 
    947 F.2d 1145
     (4th Cir. 1991)
    (entertaining a civil application to permanently enjoin a judge from opening court
    with a prayer), but for the criminal defendant the religious character of a trial is
    relevant only to the extent that it affects the fundamental fairness of the
    proceeding, and no special standards govern our analysis when the alleged
    unfairness stems from religion, as opposed to some other factor.
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    A defendant’s right to due process is violated if he is sentenced based on
    “factors that are constitutionally impermissible or totally irrelevant to the
    sentencing process, such as for example the race, religion, or political affiliation of
    the defendant.” Zant v. Stevens, 
    462 U.S. 862
    , 885, 
    103 S. Ct. 2733
    , 
    77 L. Ed. 2d 235
     (1983). When religion is the basis of a due process challenge, courts look to
    whether the religious features of the trial substantially impaired the fairness of the
    proceeding; they do not ask, in the abstract, whether the events at trial violated the
    Establishment Clause. See, e.g., United States v. Bakker, 
    925 F.2d 728
    , 740–41
    (4th Cir. 1991) (vacating a sentence where “the trial judge abused his discretion
    and violated due process by factoring his own sense of religiosity and victimization
    into the sentence he imposed,” and where the record showed “the explicit intrusion
    of personal religious principles as the basis of a sentencing decision” (emphasis
    added)); see also Deyton v. Keller, 
    682 F.3d 340
    , 348 (4th Cir. 2012) (“To the
    extent that the [trial] judge quoted from the Bible, there is . . . no credible argument
    that he impermissibly rested the chosen term of imprisonment on scripture and not
    on [state law].”); United States v. Hoffman, 
    626 F.3d 993
    , 999 (8th Cir. 2010)
    (“Nothing suggests that the district court’s personal view of religion in any way
    influenced an aspect of [the defendant’s] sentence.”); United States v. Traxler, 
    477 F.3d 1243
    , 1249 (10th Cir. 2007) (concluding that a due process challenge to a
    judge’s religious comments applies “only to those circumstances where
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    impermissible personal views expressed at sentencing were the basis of the
    sentence” (emphasis added)); Arnett v. Jackson, 
    393 F. 3d 681
    , 688 (6th Cir. 2005)
    (denying habeas relief where the trial judge had referred to a passage from the
    Bible, but “[t]here [was] nothing in the totality of the circumstances of
    [defendant’s] sentencing to indicate that the trial judge used the Bible as her final
    source of authority” (quotation marks omitted)); United States v. Walker, 
    696 F.2d 277
    , 282 (4th Cir. 1982) (“[The defendants] are not entitled to such a reversal [of
    their convictions] unless the content of the prayer substantially impaired the
    fairness of their trial.”).
    Bates, in this case, wastes most of his habeas petition trying to relitigate the
    pretrial prayer as a violation of the Establishment Clause, and then—almost as an
    afterthought—connects the alleged First Amendment violation to his counsel’s
    supposed negligence in failing to notice and object to the Establishment Clause
    violation. See Pet. for Writ of Habeas Corpus, Doc. 1, at 54 (Mar. 16, 2009) (“If
    the mere installation of a statue bearing the Ten Commandments in a courthouse
    was sufficient for the United States Supreme Court to uphold an injunction barring
    the display, then certainly a prayer invoking God’s blessing upon the jury and
    judge given by the minister of the victim in Mr. Bates’s capital trial violated the
    First Amendment along with Mr. Bates’s rights guaranteed under the Sixth, Eighth,
    and Fourteenth Amendments.”). This argument simply misses the mark: the
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    sectarian aspects of a trial are relevant only to the extent they make the trial unfair,
    and on the fairness question the Establishment Clause has nothing to teach us. It
    follows that Bates’s lawyer could not be ineffective for failing to raise an
    Establishment Clause claim, because an Establishment Clause claim, by itself,
    would not help his client anyway.
    C.
    Judge Wilson, in his concurring opinion, wants to rehabilitate Bates’s
    Strickland claim by recasting it as an argument about fairness: Judge Wilson says
    “the jury was far less likely to be able to give Bates a fair trial after the prayer and
    the husband’s testimony” were combined, and “any competent counsel would have
    objected.” Wilson, J., Op. at 2 n.1. All of us on the panel agree that Bates is not
    entitled to relief on that claim, either, because Bates can cite no Supreme Court
    case supporting it, and therefore cannot show that the Florida Supreme Court
    decision denying relief was contrary to, or an unreasonable application of, clearly
    established law. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(2). Judge Wilson nonetheless volunteers
    that—were the issue to present itself on de novo review—he would readily grant
    relief on Bates’s Strickland claim because he thinks the pretrial prayer “inserted
    God into Bates’s trial, and the husband’s testimony made clear whose side God
    was on,” resulting in “obvious and significant prejudice” that all competent
    lawyers would object to. Wilson, J., Op. at 2, 6.
    19
    Case: 13-11882       Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 20 of 80
    If that were an accurate description of what happened at trial, we might
    agree with Judge Wilson that Bates’s trial was unfair. But Judge Wilson’s account
    bears little resemblance to the trial transcript, which he does not quote from or cite
    to in making his argument. We will start by reprinting the parts of the trial
    transcript actually at issue, so as to ground the discussion in the record, and then
    consider the extratextual glosses Bates and Judge Wilson offer.
    1.
    On January 17, 1983, just before the start of voir dire, the trial judge asked
    the prospective jurors to stand as Reverend N.B. Langford “of the First Baptist
    Church” delivered the following prayer:
    May we pray together. Father, this is a beautiful day that you’ve
    given to each of us, and we thank you for the privilege that’s ours to
    enjoy all the bounties that you’ve given to each of us. Lord, we pray
    for the seriousness of the situation with which we’re confronted, and
    we ask for your wisdom and your guidance, Father, upon all who are
    involved, we pray for the Judge as he presides for your special
    wisdom and for your guidance to do upon his life. Thank you, Father,
    that we live in a country that has freedom for all, and we ask now for
    your leadership and your blessings upon the judicial system, for in
    Christ’s name I pray, Amen.
    Trial Record, Vol. I at 1211 (Jan. 17, 1983). So far, we’d say, so good. One could
    absolutely question the wisdom or propriety of starting trials this way 2—and no
    2
    See, e.g., Marsh v. Chambers, 
    463 U.S. 783
    , 805–06, 
    103 S. Ct. 3330
    , 3343, 
    77 L. Ed. 2d 1019
     (1983) (Brennan, J., dissenting) (“[N]o American should at any point feel alienated from
    his government because that government has declared or acted upon some ‘official’ or
    ‘authorized’ point of view on a matter of religion.”); United States v. Walker, 
    696 F.2d 277
    , 282
    (4th Cir. 1982) (“The practice [of pretrial prayer] is a needlessly risky one. Because each
    20
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014        Page: 21 of 80
    one on this panel is suggesting that the trial judge here was observing some kind of
    best practice—but as far as prayers go, this is pretty bland stuff. The prayer did
    not incite the jury to vengeance or vindictiveness, but rather called for wisdom and
    solemnity “upon all who are involved”—including the defendant.3 One day later,
    after the jury had been selected and the guilt phase begun, the State called the
    victim’s husband as its first witness at trial. During that testimony, the prosecutor
    and the husband had the following exchange:
    [THE STATE]: When was the last time you saw [the victim, Renee
    White] alive?
    [HUSBAND]: June 14th, 1982, approximately between the hours of
    12 and 12:30.
    [THE STATE]: Where was that at?
    [HUSBAND]: At our residence, 602 1/2 Colorado Avenue.
    [THE STATE]: Was this for lunch?
    [HUSBAND]: Yes.
    minister composes his own prayer, its content is beyond the control of the judge. A minister,
    knowing little of the ground rules for jury trials, may inadvertently say something that is
    prejudicial to a defendant. . . . We think the practice should be discouraged.”).
    3
    Bowers later testified at the collateral evidentiary hearing that it did not even occur to
    him to object to the prayer because he thought it harmless.
    [THE STATE]: Okay. The prayer by Reverend Langford was neutral, wasn’t it?
    [BOWERS]: I’ve read the prayer from the motion, I didn’t—I didn’t think
    nothing of the prayer.
    [THE STATE]: Right. It didn’t to you seem to encourage anybody to convict
    this defendant or to acquit him, either way, did it?
    [BOWERS]: The prayer itself, no.
    [THE STATE]: Just kind of asked for the Lord’s guidance in making a wise
    decision, something about like that?
    [BOWERS]: It speaks for itself, yes.
    Postconviction Record, Vol. III at 353.
    21
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 22 of 80
    [THE STATE]: Was it usual procedure for you and her to have
    lunch during the week?
    [HUSBAND]: Yes, we usually would meet at home.
    [THE STATE]: What was her normal lunch hour?
    [HUSBAND]: Between 12 and 1 each day.
    [THE STATE]: When was the last time you saw her?
    [HUSBAND]: June 17th, at First Baptist Church before they closed
    the coffin.
    [THE STATE]: This was at the funeral services?
    [HUSBAND]: Yes, at the funeral services.
    [THE STATE]: On June 14th, 1982, was Renee an employee of Jim
    Dickerson?
    [HUSBAND]: Correct.
    [THE STATE]: What is the name of his organization?
    [HUSBAND]: He represents State Farm Insurance Agency, Jim
    Dickerson, State Farm Insurance Agency.
    [THE STATE]: And where is it located?
    [HUSBAND]: On Highway 77.
    [THE STATE]: And that is in Bay County, Florida?
    [HUSBAND]: Correct.
    [THE STATE]: How many employees did Mr. Dickerson have?
    [HUSBAND]: One.
    [THE STATE]: And that was Renee?
    [HUSBAND]: And that was Renee.
    Trial Record, Vol. I. at 291–93 (Jan. 18, 1983).
    Somewhere in this testimony, Judge Wilson claims God was inserted into
    trial on the victim’s side, but we don’t see it. Instead, we see the prosecutor
    establishing the husband as a fact witness and asking him about the day of the
    crime. The prosecutor asked the husband about his last contact with his wife, and
    the husband took that question very literally and said that he last “saw” his wife in
    a coffin. The prosecutor clarified that the husband was talking about the funeral,
    and then rerouted the questioning back to the circumstances of the crime. And the
    22
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 23 of 80
    husband had a great deal to say about that: He had lunch with his wife a mere half
    hour before her murder; he knew about her work schedule and her habits; he knew
    what clothes she had worn that day; and most importantly, he could identify her
    wedding ring, which had been (according to the coroner) violently wrenched from
    her hand while she lay bleeding to death in the woods behind her office, and which
    Bates had been carrying in his pocket when the police saw him emerge from the
    woods just minutes after the murder. All told, two things jump out from this
    testimony. The first is that the prosecutor was not trying to elicit the victim’s
    church affiliation, and he certainly did not dwell on it; he had other points to make.
    The second is that, considering everything else that was going on in the husband’s
    testimony, the one throwaway reference to the funeral was probably the detail least
    likely to engage the jury’s attention.
    The other point worth making here is how little textual support the transcript
    offers for Judge Wilson’s claim that “this sequence of events focused the jury on
    the need for justice for the victim” because “[w]ithout a guilty verdict, the jury
    could do nothing for the God-fearing victim or her grieving husband.” Wilson, J.,
    Op. at 1–2. Nobody said anything even remotely like that at trial. Neither the
    husband nor the prosecutor mentioned Reverend Langford or the pretrial prayer,
    and the husband’s singular offhand mention of First Baptist Church does not
    appear ever again in the transcript. There was no mention of God or “the need for
    23
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 24 of 80
    justice for the victim.” We think, instead, that the husband’s testimony is what it
    appears to be: a factual statement, made in passing, in response to one question
    asked in the course of a three-day trial. Most likely, the jury didn’t think about it at
    all. Certainly there’s no direct evidence that they did. And so, attempting to show
    unfairness, both Bates and Judge Wilson go far beyond the record.
    2.
    Bates, delving deep between the lines, asserts that the husband’s testimony
    “was specifically elicited by the prosecution to make that connection between
    Reverend Langford of the First Baptist Church and [the victim],” Pet’r’s Br. at 31,
    but he offers no evidence for that extraordinary claim apart from the transcript
    itself, which does not even circumstantially support his conspiracy theory. Even
    apart from that lack of evidence, Bates’s suspicions are implausible. For one thing,
    if the prosecution was really devious enough to “plant” the husband’s testimony,
    surely they would have made better use of it, either by lingering over the First
    Baptist connection on direct examination or by referencing the church or the
    testimony later in closing argument. Otherwise, this supposed “strategy” would be
    so subtle as to be self-defeating. Consider what this gambit would require of the
    jury: that (1) the preternaturally alert jurors zero in on the husband’s offhand
    mention of the church, (2) instantly connect that to the Reverend’s prayer the day
    before, (3) know, or at least suspect, that the husband and the Reverend were
    24
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 25 of 80
    members of the same First Baptist Church,4 and (4) take all of that—somehow—as
    an invitation to ignore their oaths as jurors and find Bates guilty regardless of the
    evidence against him. If that was really the plan, the prosecution was playing a
    very long game, indeed.
    Judge Wilson, for his part, takes the position that those connections are not
    so implausible once you account for what he calls “the context of a racially
    charged environment.” Wilson, J., Op. at 2 n. 1; see also Pet. for Habeas Corpus,
    Doc. 1, at 55 (“Mr. Bates is black while the victim, and her minister who gave the
    invocation, and the entire guilt phase jury were white.”). On this account, the
    courtroom’s ambient racial tension is the missing link that explains how a facially
    neutral prayer could fuse with a picayune detail from the husband’s testimony to
    prejudice a defendant in a “high profile, racially charged murder case in a small
    community.” Wilson, J., Op. at 4. But this dog-whistle theory 5 of prejudice is just
    as speculative as Bates’s prosecutorial-conspiracy theory, and we don’t know why
    4
    Today, there are at least four churches in Panama City, Florida, that call themselves
    First Baptist Church. See ChurchSearch, Southern Baptist Convention,
    http://www.sbc.net/churchsearch/results.asp?query=Panama+City%2C+FL (last visited Aug. 4,
    2014). That number was probably different in 1983, when Bates was on trial, but we don’t
    know. And that is part of the problem: even if we assume, as the parties do, that Reverend
    Langford and the husband were talking about the same First Baptist Church, Bates never
    explains how the jurors would have known that. Even Bowers—who was from the area and
    familiar with its churches—wasn’t sure when asked about it years later at the collateral hearing.
    See Postconviction Record, Vol. III at 374. (“I didn’t know [at the time that] the deceased—
    well, I still don’t know, but I presume, was a member of that church.”) (emphasis added).
    5
    See William Safire, Safire’s Political Dictionary 190 (Oxford University Press 2008)
    (defining “dog-whistle politics” as “[t]he use of messages embedded in speeches that seem
    innocent to a general audience but resonate with a specific public attuned to receive them.”).
    25
    Case: 13-11882       Date Filed: 09/05/2014      Page: 26 of 80
    Judge Wilson is so confident in asserting it; he wasn’t in the courtroom. Bowers,
    the lawyer, was in the room, and was familiar with Panama City, its churches, and
    its people. And, “[u]nlike a later reviewing court, the attorney observed the
    relevant proceedings, knew of materials outside the record, and interacted with the
    client, with opposing counsel, and with the judge.” Harrington v. Richter, __ U.S.
    __, 
    131 S. Ct. 770
    , 788, 
    178 L. Ed. 2d 624
     (2011). Bowers was, in other words,
    better positioned than any of us to evaluate what effect the husband’s testimony
    might have in the moment, and he did not see any reason to object. 6 The language
    about “racial tension” comes from testimony Bowers gave seven years later, at the
    collateral hearing, with the encouragement of Bates’s new collateral counsel.
    Judge Wilson says “Bowers testified that the jurors could have drawn a prejudicial
    conclusion” from the husband’s testimony, Wilson, J., Op. at 4 n. 2, and indeed
    that is exactly what Bowers said: they could have, a possibility that Bowers also
    described, in the same answer, as “pure speculation.” Here is that exchange:
    [COUNSEL FOR PETITIONER]: Now, [the State] asked you
    certain questions about the prayer that was said in court. And
    you’ve indicated you could relay what the impact of the prayer
    was on the jury. I don’t think he let you answer that. Let me
    let you answer that. From your perspective at the time, what
    was the impact of the jury hearing that from the victim’s
    minister?
    6
    Nor was Bowers simply asleep at the switch. The transcript shows him objecting to
    testimony—for lack of relevance—just a few pages later. See Trial Record, Vol. I. at 300 (Jan.
    18, 1983).
    26
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 27 of 80
    [BOWERS]: All right, at that time I didn’t know the deceased—well,
    I still don’t know, but I presume, was a member of that church.
    It’s a prominent church in this area, one of the largest Baptist
    churches in this area. Nothing that the minister might have said
    or intended, but a person sitting on the jury may have
    assumed—this is pure speculation—connected these things
    together. And given a situation where you do have a racial
    tension type thing, it could produce a result. Negative,
    prejudicial.
    Postconviction Record, Vol. III at 374–75.
    “Pure speculation” does not establish a due process violation. There is no
    question that under the Constitution “a defendant has the right to an impartial jury
    that can view him without racial animus, which has so long distorted our system of
    criminal justice.” Georgia v. McCollum, 
    505 U.S. 42
    , 58, 
    112 S. Ct. 2348
    , 2358,
    
    120 L. Ed. 33
     (1992). But it is equally well established that courts may not
    entertain “the divisive assumption—as a per se rule—that justice in a court of law
    may turn upon the pigmentation of skin, the accident of birth, or the choice of
    religion.” Id. at 59, 
    112 S. Ct. at 2359
    . The record simply does not support the
    claim that God was injected into the trial on the victim’s side, and we cannot fill in
    the gaps with the “divisive assumption” that jurors convicted Bates on account of
    his race, as opposed to the evidence presented against him—evidence that even
    Bates seems to concede was overwhelming. See Pet. for Writ of Habeas Corpus,
    Doc. 1, at 30–36 (“[Part] C. Understanding the Offense”).
    27
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 28 of 80
    Bates, of course, is not making a due process claim. The claim, instead, is
    that he received ineffective assistance of counsel when his lawyer did not make the
    due process objection on his behalf at trial. Specifically, the claim is that a
    competent lawyer watching events unfold at trial would have, at some point,
    moved for a mistrial. We disagree.
    D.
    When a petitioner says his attorney was ineffective for failing to make an
    objection, Strickland requires proof that the attorney fell below the standard of
    “reasonableness under prevailing professional norms.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 688
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2065
    . This test “has nothing to do with what the best lawyers
    would have done. Nor is the test even what most good lawyers would have done.
    We ask only whether some reasonable lawyer at the trial could have acted, in the
    circumstances, as defense counsel acted at trial.” Waters v. Thomas, 
    46 F.3d 1506
    ,
    1512 (11th Cir. 1995) (en banc).
    Decisions about whether to object—and when, and in what form—are
    tactical choices consigned by Strickland to a lawyer’s reasoned professional
    judgment. Good lawyers, knowing that judges and juries have limited time and
    limited patience, serve their clients best when they are judicious in making
    objections. In any trial, a lawyer will leave some objections on the table. Some of
    those objections might even be meritorious, but the competent lawyer nonetheless
    28
    Case: 13-11882       Date Filed: 09/05/2014      Page: 29 of 80
    leaves them unmade because he considers them distractive or incompatible with
    his trial strategy.
    In this case, as with any Strickland claim, we start by “reconstruct[ing] the
    circumstances of counsel’s challenged conduct” and “evaluat[ing] the conduct
    from counsel’s perspective at the time.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 689
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2065
    . We imagine Bowers, the defense lawyer, sitting in the courtroom and
    watching the victim’s husband testify about the day of his wife’s murder. During
    this testimony, the husband mentions that her funeral took place at First Baptist
    Church, and Bowers recalls that one day earlier Reverend Langford—also of First
    Baptist Church, or at least a First Baptist Church—had delivered a prayer at the
    start of jury selection. What should Bowers do?
    We must assume, for the sake of argument, that in this hypothetical Bowers
    shares Judge Wilson’s intuition about the possibility of prejudice on these facts. In
    real life, of course, it never even occurred to Bowers to object, first because it was
    not obvious to him (and, therefore, probably not obvious to the jury) that the
    husband was talking about the same church the Reverend belonged to—indeed,
    that still is not obvious, even today—and second because Bowers thought “nothing
    of the prayer” in the first place. 7 But let us proceed on the assumption that a
    7
    Judge Wilson says the fact that Bowers “never even considered moving for a mistrial is
    all the more reason to believe that his failure to object was incompetent and not the product of
    thoughtful consideration,” Wilson, J., Op. at 7–8, but we think that argument is obviously
    29
    Case: 13-11882       Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 30 of 80
    competent attorney would at least think something of the prayer. In considering
    his options, Bowers would keep two additional points in mind. First, a mistrial is
    an extraordinary remedy—available only when a trial has broken down so
    completely as to be wholly unreliable—and judges are (rightly) reluctant to use it.
    A competent lawyer knows, therefore, that if he’s going to move for a mistrial, he
    needs a good reason, lest he waste time, lose credibility, and undermine his client
    by making half-baked arguments. Second, Bowers is not aware of any case that
    might support his motion for a mistrial, even tangentially. That assumption might
    sound extreme, but we believe it to be fair because neither Judge Wilson nor Bates
    cite any cases to support a mistrial motion, and if they cannot produce authority to
    support their position—despite having time to consider and research the
    question—it hardly seems fair to expect a trial attorney to develop the argument
    wholesale on the spot. Judge Wilson, on this point, says only that he “believe[s]
    that many trial judges in Florida would grant a motion for a mistrial” on these
    facts. Wilson, J., Op. at 5 n.3. That might be true; we have no idea. What we do
    know is that isn’t the standard for Strickland performance. That some judge,
    somewhere in Florida, might buy an argument does not mean that all lawyers in all
    circular: a competent attorney would object, Judge Wilson says, and this attorney did not object,
    so he must have been incompetent. The conclusion is just a restatement of the premise.
    30
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014        Page: 31 of 80
    cases must make that argument. With those limitations in mind, Bowers would
    think through his options.
    He could do the dramatic thing and rise to make a speaking objection, but
    that might be unwise. For one thing, he would be interrupting a grieving
    husband’s recollection of his wife’s murder—which is no way to win friends on
    the jury—and for another, he would be calling attention to the very thing he wants
    to suppress: the victim’s church affiliation. If the jurors had not made the
    connection before between Reverend Langford and the husband’s reference to First
    Baptist Church, they would certainly make that connection now, with Bowers
    spelling it out for them in his objection. Objecting might make things worse by
    highlighting what would have otherwise been an entirely unremarkable and
    unmemorable detail.8
    Judge Wilson, anticipating this argument, “agree[s] with [me] that
    interrupting either the prayer or the husband’s testimony with an immediate
    8
    This, of course, is a problem inherent to objections: in articulating the objection, the
    lawyer must underscore the substance of the thing he seeks to correct. There is always the risk
    that the lawyer will object unsuccessfully and, in the process, only emphasize damaging
    testimony or evidence. In deciding whether to object, then, lawyers are always making a
    calculation, weighing the importance of the objection against the risk of failure. Those
    calculations almost never yield an objectively “correct” answer, which is why Strickland defers
    to the considered professional judgment of licensed attorneys. See Strickland v. Washington,
    
    466 U.S. 668
    , 693, 
    104 S. Ct. 2052
    , 2067, 
    80 L. Ed. 2d 674
     (1984) (“Representation is an art,
    and an act or omission that is unprofessional in one case may be sound or even brilliant in
    another.”); Chandler v. United States, 
    218 F.3d 1305
    , 1313 (11th Cir. 2000) (en banc)
    (“Different lawyers have different gifts; this fact, as well as differing circumstances from case to
    case, means the range of what might be a reasonable approach at trial must be broad. To state
    the obvious: the trial lawyers, in every case, could have done something more or something
    different.”).
    31
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014     Page: 32 of 80
    objection would have been imprudent,” but he suggests that the objection might
    come “after the husband’s testimony concluded.” Wilson, J., Op. at 4–5. But wait
    a minute: we thought the whole point of objecting was that the husband’s
    testimony caused “obvious and significant prejudice” to Bates, and that Bowers
    “sat idly by as the prosecution stacked the deck against his client” and ignored “the
    jury’s mounting prejudice against him.” Id. at 6, 8. If the testimony was really
    that bad—if it had so undermined the fairness of the proceedings that only the
    extraordinary remedy of a mistrial would do—then how can Bowers afford to
    wait?
    In fact, delaying the objection involves a whole new set of tactical problems.
    The first is the contemporaneous-objection rule, which “enforce[s] the requirement
    that parties lodge timely objections to errors at trial so as to provide the [trial] court
    with an opportunity to avoid or correct any error, and thus avoid the costs of
    reversal and a retrial.” United States v. Turner, 
    474 F.3d 1265
    , 1275 (11th Cir.
    2007). If Bowers waits too long to object, the trial judge can overrule the objection
    as untimely, and “where . . . a defendant fails to preserve an evidentiary ruling by
    contemporaneously objecting, [appellate] review is only for plain error.” 
    Id.
    Not to worry, Judge Wilson says: the contemporaneous-objection rule is not
    so rigid that it prevents Bowers from waiting a little while—perhaps until a
    “natural breaking point” in the proceedings—to lodge his objection, “particularly if
    32
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 33 of 80
    counsel explains the reason for any delay.” Wilson, J., Op. at 5. Maybe, but then
    again, maybe not: trial judges have a lot of discretion in ruling a belated objection
    untimely, and if Bowers sits on his objection until the close of the husband’s
    testimony, the trial judge can—and very likely will—call it untimely, a decision
    our court would then only review for plain error. Turner, 
    474 F.3d at 1275
    . In
    deciding the timeliness of Bowers’s objection, the trial judge will doubtlessly
    wonder about the delay: “Hold on,” he might ask, “you’re telling me, on the one
    hand, that this testimony was so disastrously prejudicial to your client that it makes
    the whole trial irreparably unfair, but you’re only bringing it to my attention now,
    after the witness was excused?” The judge might assume that Bowers is not all
    that serious, after all, in his objection, or that Bowers merely wants to preserve the
    issue for appeal, or that Bowers is “sandbagging the court—remaining silent about
    his objection and belatedly raising the error only if the case does not conclude in
    his favor.” Cf. Puckett v. United States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    , 134, 
    129 S. Ct. 1423
    , 1428,
    
    173 L. Ed. 2d 266
     (2009) (quotation marks omitted). No doubt the trial judge
    might agree with Judge Wilson and say that Bowers’s reason for waiting was a
    good one, but Bowers, sitting at counsel’s table, has no way of knowing that.
    From his perspective, an objection presents an inescapable dilemma: he can either
    object immediately—which ensures that his objection is timely, but also requires
    him to interrupt the husband’s testimony—or he can wait and try to object later,
    33
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014   Page: 34 of 80
    which avoids some of the practical problems of an immediate objection, but risks
    losing the argument entirely to the contemporaneous-objection rule. Or he might
    decide that it isn’t worth objecting at all.
    We want to be clear: our point is not that it would be wrong for Bowers to
    object. Our point is only that the answer is not obvious. Reasonable lawyers could
    disagree about the best way forward. On habeas review, we need only reiterate
    that “it does not follow that any counsel who takes an approach we would not have
    chosen is guilty of rendering ineffective assistance.” Waters, 
    46 F.3d at 1522
    .
    Bowers, in this hypothetical, faces a choice where his conduct is “neither directly
    prohibited by law nor directly required by law,” which is to say: the choice is
    strategic, and “a court must not second-guess counsel’s strategy.” Chandler, 
    218 F.3d at
    1314 n.14.
    Judge Wilson’s wait-and-see approach also depends on “the distorting
    effects of hindsight,” contra Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 689
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2065
    , as it is
    only in retrospect that we know Bowers could have safely waited until the
    conclusion of the husband’s testimony. Bowers, sitting in the courtroom and
    watching events unfold in real time, does not have that luxury because he does not
    know what the prosecutor’s next question will be. For all he knows, the worst is
    yet to come—and if things had gotten worse, and if Bowers had adopted Judge
    Wilson’s wait-and-see strategy, we do not doubt that Bates would now be before
    34
    Case: 13-11882   Date Filed: 09/05/2014   Page: 35 of 80
    our court to complain of ineffective assistance because his attorney waited too long
    to object. Habeas lawyers can play this game all day—and they do. See Waters,
    
    46 F.3d at 1514
     (“The widespread use of the tactic of attacking trial counsel by
    showing what ‘might have been’ proves that nothing is clearer than hindsight—
    except perhaps the rule that we will not judge trial counsel’s performance through
    hindsight.”).
    Even putting aside the practical problems with moving for a mistrial, our
    hypothetical defense attorney would also consider the substance of his objection
    before proceeding, and consider how likely he is to prevail. Let’s imagine that
    Bowers waits and finds an opportune time to approach the bench and move for a
    mistrial outside the presence of the jury. We suppose, in some parallel universe,
    that he might get lucky and secure a mistrial then and there, but we doubt it very
    much: the Reverend’s prayer was generic, the husband’s reference to church was
    made in passing, and Bowers can cite no authority, from any jurisdiction, to
    convince the judge that the husband’s testimony requires the extraordinary remedy
    of a mistrial. If the judge is feeling generous he might offer to give the jury a
    curative instruction of some kind, but for Bowers that would be the worst of both
    worlds. His entire concern is that the jury will link the Reverend to the victim, and
    a curative instruction will accomplish that more definitively than anything the jury
    has already heard. And so, having failed to get a mistrial and having declined the
    35
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 36 of 80
    judge’s offer of a curative instruction, Bowers returns to counsel’s table empty-
    handed, and the prosecutor resumes his direct examination of witnesses in front of
    an even-more bewildered jury. A competent attorney could reasonably decide that
    this whole gambit would be fruitless, and possibly counterproductive.
    Judge Wilson’s answer to this is that Bowers had nothing to lose: “[A]t
    worst, Bowers faced a win-no lose situation. Had he raised the objection, he might
    have secured a mistrial and spared his client from prejudice, but at worst, his
    objection would have been overruled.” Wilson, J., Op. at 6. Judge Wilson does
    not cite a single case to support this “win-no lose situation” test of Strickland
    performance, which—if it were the law—would require defense lawyers to make
    themselves perpetual objection machines, lest some later reviewing court identify a
    conceivably plausible objection that counsel failed to raise. Fortunately, Judge
    Wilson’s position is not the law: “[The Supreme] Court has never established
    anything akin to the Court of Appeals’ ‘nothing to lose’ standard for evaluating
    Strickland claims.” Knowles v. Mirzayance, 
    556 U.S. 111
    , 122, 
    129 S. Ct. 1411
    ,
    1419, 
    173 L. Ed. 2d 251
     (2009); see also Chandler v. United States, 
    218 F.3d 1305
    ,
    1319 (11th Cir. 2000) (en banc) (“Counsel is not required to present every
    nonfrivolous defense . . . . Considering the realities of the courtroom, more is not
    always better. Stacking defenses can hurt a case. Good advocacy requires
    36
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 37 of 80
    ‘winnowing out’ some arguments, witnesses, evidence, and so on, to stress
    others.”).
    Judge Wilson also says that a lawyer’s fear of being overruled cannot excuse
    an attorney’s decision to forego “the best arguments [he] can make” on his client’s
    behalf. But, first of all, the Strickland test “has nothing to do with what the best
    lawyers would have done. Nor is the test even what most good lawyers would
    have done. We ask only whether some reasonable lawyer could have acted, in the
    circumstances, as defense counsel acted at trial.” Waters, 
    46 F.3d at 1512
    (citations omitted); see also LeCroy v. United States, 
    739 F.3d 1297
    , 1313 (11th
    Cir. 2014) (“We do not measure counsel against what we imagine some
    hypothetical ‘best’ lawyer would do.”). Second, Judge Wilson never substantiates
    the assumption behind this claim, which is that an objection here really is the
    “best” argument Bowers could make under the circumstances. Neither Bates nor
    Judge Wilson cites cases to support a hypothetical mistrial motion, nor do they
    even articulate what, exactly, Bowers is supposed to say when it comes time to
    object. We thus have no basis on which to say that objecting would be the “best”
    argument; we can only say, at most, that it might be one argument, and a long shot
    at that. See Knowles, 
    556 U.S. at 125
    , 129 S. Ct. at 1421 (concluding that
    attorneys are not required to raise a defense that is “almost certain to lose.”); Diaz
    37
    Case: 13-11882      Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 38 of 80
    v. Sec’y for the Dep’t of Corr., 
    402 F.3d 1136
    , 1142 (11th Cir. 2006) (concluding
    that a lawyer “is not ineffective for failure to raise a meritless argument.”).
    All of this brings us back, one last time, to Bowers sitting in the courtroom
    and listening to the husband’s testimony. With the contemporaneous-objection
    clock ticking, and mindful of the wisdom of objecting judiciously, he must decide
    whether to interrupt the proceedings and object so he can roll the dice on a long-
    shot mistrial motion, for which he can cite no legal authority, that might end up
    backfiring by highlighting testimony the jury might have otherwise ignored
    completely. Can we imagine that there is “some reasonable lawyer” out there,
    somewhere, who would survey this situation and decide, as Bowers did, to stay
    seated? Waters, 
    46 F.3d at 1512
    . We say, with gusto, that we can. There is not a
    “right” answer here that all attorneys must follow in all cases. In every trial,
    attorneys have to make hundreds of tiny ambiguous decisions like this one, where
    they must decide to act or react or not act at a moment’s notice in circumstances
    where their legal position is uncertain. Bolender v. Singletary, 
    16 F.3d 1547
    , 1557
    (11th Cir. 1994) (“[T]he craft of trying cases is far from an exact science; in fact, it
    is replete with uncertainties and obligatory judgment calls.”). Any one of those
    decisions could later be pinned beneath the appellate microscope, dissected, and
    made to look foolish by collateral counsel, who—unlike trial attorneys—have
    years and sometimes decades to craft dazzling new theories of defense. But the
    38
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 39 of 80
    trial lawyer has to play the hand he’s dealt in circumstances that are inevitably not
    ideal; money, time, and energy are finite, and sometimes the facts or law or both
    are stacked against him. Our task is “not to grade counsel’s performance,”
    Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 697
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2069
    , or ask whether the attorney could
    have performed better, or ask whether some novel, unenacted strategy might have
    led to a better outcome for the client. Strickland speaks only to the small class of
    cases in which “counsel was not functioning as the ‘counsel’ guaranteed by the
    Sixth Amendment” at all, 
    466 U.S. at 687
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2064
    , and does not operate
    as a catch-all mechanism for “fixing” trials we might have conducted differently.
    See White v. Singletary, 
    972 F.2d 1218
    , 1221 (11th Cir. 1992) (“[W]e are
    interested in whether the adversarial process at trial, in fact, worked adequately.”).
    The record in this case demonstrates that Bowers labored diligently to defend his
    client. He subjected the state’s case to adversarial testing. And he lost in the face
    of overwhelming evidence that his client committed a terrible crime. 9 That is bad
    news for Bates, but it is not a Sixth Amendment violation.
    9
    The overwhelming evidence of Bates’s guilt also makes it obvious that Bates cannot
    show Strickland prejudice. Even if one assumes that Bowers was incompetent for failing to
    object to the husband’s testimony, “[a]n error by counsel . . . does not warrant setting aside the
    judgment of a criminal proceeding if the error had no effect on the judgment.” 
    466 U.S. at 691
    ,
    
    104 S. Ct. at 2066
    .
    In evaluating whether an attorney’s error had an effect on the judgment, the question is
    not whether the defendant could have temporarily evaded conviction by demanding a new trial.
    Rather, “[w]hen a defendant challenges a conviction, the question is whether there is a
    reasonable probability that, absent the errors, the factfinder would have had a reasonable doubt
    respecting guilt.” 
    Id. at 695
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at
    2068–69 (emphasis added).
    39
    Case: 13-11882       Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 40 of 80
    IV.
    Bates also contends that his right to a fair capital sentence proceeding, as
    articulated in Simmons v. South Carolina, was violated at his 1995 resentencing by
    the trial court’s refusal to instruct the jury either that: (1) it could impose a
    sentence of life without the possibility of parole under the 1994 amendment to 
    Fla. Stat. § 775.082
    ; (2) he had agreed to waive parole eligibility under the pre-
    amendment version of that statute; or (3) he had already been sentenced to two life
    terms plus fifteen years on his other counts of conviction, all of which would run
    consecutively to any sentence he received for murder. In support of this claim,
    Bates asserts that retroactively applying the 1994 version of § 775.082 to the
    murder he committed in 1982 would not violate the constitutional prohibition
    against ex post facto laws because it would not work to his disadvantage and he
    had otherwise agreed to waive any ex post facto rights. Because he had agreed to
    waive his eligibility for parole under the pre-amendment version of § 775.082,
    Bates maintains that he was entitled under Simmons “to an accurate jury
    Here, then, even if Bowers had objected, and even if he had gotten a new trial with a new
    jury, he would still have faced the huge body of inculpatory evidence offered by the State. The
    police encountered Bates emerging from the woods just minutes after the murder, his clothes
    stained with the victim’s blood. They found the victim’s wedding ring in his pocket. Next to her
    body they found his knife case, and the victim’s fatal stab wounds matched his knife. The most
    likely outcome of a new trial would still be the same result: a guilty verdict.
    40
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014        Page: 41 of 80
    instruction” that a sentence of life without the possibility of parole could be
    imposed in lieu of the death penalty. 10
    In Simmons, the Supreme Court held that “where the defendant’s future
    dangerousness is at issue, and state law prohibits the defendant’s release on parole,
    due process requires that the sentencing jury be informed that the defendant is
    parole ineligible.” 
    512 U.S. at 156
    , 
    114 S.Ct. at 2190
     (plurality opinion); see also
    10
    In his federal habeas petition, Bates raised a distinct claim that the resentencing court
    violated the principles of Lockett v. Ohio, 
    438 U.S. 586
    , 
    98 S.Ct. 2954
     (1976), by preventing
    him from presenting various types of relevant mitigating evidence that “might serve as a basis
    for a sentence less than death,” including the consecutive sentences he had received for his non-
    homicide convictions. Although the COA we granted is broad enough to encompass that claim,
    at least insofar as it relies on evidence of Bates’ other consecutive sentences, Bates has
    abandoned it by failing to “plainly and prominently” argue on appeal that the resentencing court
    was required under Lockett to admit evidence of his other consecutive sentences as relevant
    mitigating circumstances. See Sapuppo v. Allstate Floridian Ins. Co., 
    739 F.3d 678
    , 681 (11th
    Cir. 2014) (“A party fails to adequately brief a claim when he does not plainly and prominently
    raise it, for instance by devoting a discrete section of his argument to those claims.”) (quotation
    marks omitted); United States v. Willis, 
    649 F.3d 1248
    , 1254 (11th Cir. 2011) (“A party seeking
    to raise a claim or issue on appeal must plainly and prominently so indicate. . . . Where a party
    fails to abide by this simple requirement, he has waived his right to have the court consider that
    argument.”) (quotation marks and citation omitted). Bates did include a single citation to
    Lockett in his appellate brief, but that passing reference is not enough to preserve the issue for
    appellate review. See Sapuppo, 739 F.3d at 681–82 (explaining that an “appellant abandons a
    claim when he either makes only passing references to it,” “raises it in a perfunctory manner
    without supporting arguments and authority,” or buries it within his main arguments). And
    contrary to Judge Wilson’s concurring opinion, the fact that Bates broadly contends that the state
    courts’ refusal to admit such evidence was unconstitutional is not sufficient to place a Lockett-
    based claim before us. Bates’ claim centers on the constitutional rule announced in Simmons,
    not the one set forth in Lockett. A petitioner who, for example, challenges the admission of
    evidence as violative of his constitutional rights under the Fourth Amendment cannot be said to
    have properly preserved any and all constitutional challenges to that evidence, whether based on
    the Fifth Amendment right against compelled self-incrimination or the Sixth Amendment right to
    confront adverse witnesses.
    In any event, as we discuss later, the Supreme Court’s decisions in Simmons and
    Ramdass v. Angelone, 
    530 U.S. 156
    , 
    120 S.Ct. 2113
     (2002), which directly deal with evidence
    concerning parole ineligibility, provide enough basis for reasonably concluding that the
    admission of evidence of other consecutive sentences at a capital sentence hearing is not
    mandated by clearly established federal law.
    41
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 42 of 80
    id. at 178, 
    114 S.Ct. at 2201
     (O’Connor, J., concurring) (“Where the State puts the
    defendant’s future dangerousness in issue, and the only available alternative
    sentence to death is life imprisonment without the possibility of parole, due process
    entitles the defendant to inform the capital sentencing jury . . . that he is parole
    ineligible.”). The basis of the Court’s holding was that the State “may not mislead
    the jury [about the defendant’s future dangerousness] by concealing accurate
    information about the defendant’s parole ineligibility” under state law. 
    Id.
     at 165
    n.5, 
    114 S.Ct. at
    2194 n.5 (plurality opinion). At the same time, however, the
    Court endorsed the general proposition that where “parole is available” as a matter
    of state law, courts should “defer to a State’s determination as to what a jury
    should and should not be told about sentencing” because “how the jury’s
    knowledge of parole availability will affect the decision whether or not to impose
    the death penalty is speculative.” 
    Id. at 168
    , 
    114 S.Ct. at 2196
     (plurality opinion);
    see also 
    id. at 176
    , 
    114 S.Ct. at 2200
     (O’Connor, J., concurring) (“The decision
    whether or not to inform the jury of the possibility of early release is generally left
    to the States. In a State in which parole is available, the Constitution does not
    require (or preclude) jury consideration of that fact.”) (citation omitted).
    Since Simmons was decided, the Supreme Court has declined to extend its
    holding to cases where parole ineligibility has not been conclusively established as
    a matter of state law. See Ramdass v. Angelone, 
    530 U.S. 156
    , 165, 
    120 S.Ct. 42
    Case: 13-11882      Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 43 of 80
    2113, 2119 (2002) (plurality opinion). In Ramdass, the Court explained that the
    Simmons rule applies only “when a defendant is, as a matter of state law, parole
    ineligible at the time of his trial,” and it refused to adopt a “functional approach” to
    parole ineligibility — one dependent on whether a defendant “would, at some
    point, be released from prison” — because that approach would require courts and
    juries to examine too many theoretical possibilities, which “might well” distract
    them “from the other vital issues in the case.” 
    Id.
     at 168–69, 
    120 S.Ct. at 2121
    .
    The Florida Supreme Court rejected Bates’ Simmons claim based on its
    interpretation of the 1994 amendment to 
    Fla. Stat. § 775.082
    . The court held that
    the amended statue, which eliminated the possibility of parole for capital
    defendants sentenced to life in prison, “was not applicable to crimes committed
    before its effective date” of May 25, 1994, because state laws are “presumed to
    apply prospectively” in the absence of “clear legislative intent to the contrary,” and
    there was “no unequivocal language that the Legislature intended this amendment
    to apply retroactively.” Bates, 
    750 So. 2d at 10
    ; see also State v. Smith, 
    547 So. 2d 613
    , 616 (Fla. 1989) (“[I]t is firmly established law that the statutes in effect at the
    time of commission of a crime control as to the offenses for which the perpetrator
    can be convicted, as well as the punishments which may be imposed.”). From that
    threshold determination that “the 1994 amendment [could] have no effect on
    [Bates’] sentencing,” the Florida Supreme Court concluded that there was simply
    43
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014        Page: 44 of 80
    no ex post facto claim for Bates to waive and that he was not entitled to have the
    jury informed that he had agreed to waive parole eligibility because, “[a]t the time
    [he] committed this murder, the Legislature had not established life without the
    possibility of parole as punishment for this crime.” Bates, 
    750 So. 2d at
    10–11.
    Turning to Bates’ request that the jury be informed of his other consecutive
    sentences, the Florida Supreme Court explained that “[t]he introduction of this
    evidence would open the door to conjecture and speculation as to how much time a
    prisoner serves of a sentence and distract jurors from the relevant issue of what is
    the appropriate sentence for the murder conviction.” 
    Id. at 11
    . Because “[t]he
    length of actual prison time is affected by many factors other than the length of the
    sentence imposed by the sentencing court,” the Florida Supreme Court found that
    evidence of Bates’ other sentences was not relevant to the issue of whether he
    would “actually remain in prison for the length of those sentences.” 
    Id.
    That decision was neither contrary to, nor an unreasonable application of,
    Simmons and its progeny. Simmons requires that a sentencing jury be informed of
    a defendant’s parole ineligibility only where the defendant is, as a matter of state
    law, absolutely ineligible for parole and the State places his future dangerousness
    at issue. 11 See 
    512 U.S. at 156, 178
    , 
    114 S.Ct. at 2190, 2201
    ; Ramdass, 
    530 U.S. 11
    In addressing a separate claim that the State had violated Hitchcock v. State, 
    673 So. 2d 859
    , 863 (Fla. 1996), by arguing to the jury that Bates would be eligible for parole on a life
    sentence after serving 25 years, the Florida Supreme Court noted that the State had not
    44
    Case: 13-11882       Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 45 of 80
    at 166, 
    120 S.Ct. at 2120
     (“[A] parole-ineligibility instruction is required only
    when, assuming the jury fixes the sentence at life, the defendant is ineligible for
    parole under state law.”). The Florida Supreme Court’s twin determinations —
    that the 1994 amendment to § 775.082 does not apply retroactively to Bates’
    criminal conduct and that he had no right under state law to waive his parole
    eligibility — conclusively establish that Bates would be eligible for parole if the
    jury sentenced him to life imprisonment. In light of the Florida Supreme Court’s
    interpretation of state law, which is binding on federal courts, Bates was not
    entitled under Simmons to inform the jury that it could impose a sentence of life
    without the possibility of parole or that he had agreed to waive his parole
    eligibility. See Ramdass, 530 U.S. at 167, 
    120 S.Ct. at 2120
     (holding that a
    Simmons instruction was not required in light of the Virginia Supreme Court’s
    “authoritative determination” that the “petitioner was not ineligible for parole
    when the jury considered his sentence”); see also Estelle v. McGuire, 
    502 U.S. 62
    ,
    67–68, 
    112 S.Ct. 475
    , 480 (1991) (“[I]t is not the province of a federal habeas
    court to reexamine state-court determinations on state-law questions.”); Mullaney
    “inject[ed] [Bates’] future dangerousness into its evidence or argument.” Bates, 
    750 So. 2d at 11
    . Without explicitly acknowledging that finding, Bates asserts that the State’s cross-
    examination of his character witnesses and its closing argument “implied that [he] would be a
    danger in the future.” We need not decide whether the Florida Supreme Court’s contrary finding
    forecloses federal habeas relief on Bates’ Simmons claim because the court did not specifically
    rely on that finding when rejecting the claim before us, and Bates would still not be entitled to
    relief under AEDPA even if we assume that the prosecution had put his future dangerousness at
    issue.
    45
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 46 of 80
    v. Wilbur, 
    421 U.S. 684
    , 691, 
    95 S.Ct. 1881
    , 1886 (1975) (“This Court . . .
    repeatedly has held that state courts are the ultimate expositors of state law and that
    we are bound by their constructions except in extreme circumstances.”) (citation
    omitted); Reaves v. Sec’y, Fla. Dep’t of Corr., 
    717 F.3d 886
    , 903 (11th Cir. 2013)
    (“The Florida Supreme Court’s interpretation of state law is binding on federal
    courts.”).
    Bates insists that there was no ex post facto impediment to retroactively
    applying the amended version of § 775.082 to his pre-amendment criminal conduct
    because, under the circumstances of his case, it would not work to his disadvantage
    and he otherwise agreed to waive his ex post facto rights. But that argument
    misses the point. The Florida Supreme Court’s conclusion that the revised
    sentencing statute does not apply retroactively to crimes committed before its
    effective date was not based on the constitutional prohibition against ex post facto
    legislation. Instead, it was a matter of statutory construction based on the time-
    honored presumption against retroactive application of laws absent clear legislative
    intent to the contrary. See Bates, 
    750 So. 2d at 10
     (“Retroactive application of the
    law is generally disfavored . . . and any basis for retroactive application must be
    unequivocal and leave no doubt as to the legislative intent.”) (citations omitted);
    see generally Landgraf v. USI Film Prods., 
    511 U.S. 244
    , 265, 
    114 S.Ct. 1483
    ,
    1497 (1994) (“[T]he presumption against retroactive legislation is deeply rooted in
    46
    Case: 13-11882   Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 47 of 80
    our jurisprudence, and embodies a legal doctrine centuries older than our
    Republic.”).
    Because the amended Florida statute, as authoritatively interpreted by
    Florida’s highest court, does not operate retroactively, there is no ex post facto
    problem for Bates to waive. Ex post facto problems can arise only if a law actually
    does apply retroactively to criminal conduct or other events that occurred before its
    enactment. See Lynce v. Mathis, 
    519 U.S. 433
    , 441, 
    117 S.Ct. 891
    , 896 (1997)
    (“To fall within the ex post facto prohibition, a law must be retrospective — that is,
    it must apply to events occurring before its enactment — and it must disadvantage
    the offender . . . by altering the definition of criminal conduct or increasing the
    punishment for the crime.”) (quotation marks and citations omitted). Bates’
    problem was not one that he can waive his way around because his problem is that
    the state law he sought to have applied to him did not apply to him.
    As for Bates’ contention that the state courts violated his clearly established
    due process rights by failing to instruct the jury about his other consecutive
    sentences, we rejected a virtually identical argument in Booker v. Secretary,
    Florida Department of Corrections, 
    684 F.3d 1121
     (11th Cir. 2012). There, the
    petitioner argued that the state trial court had violated his due process rights when
    it refused to instruct his capital sentencing jury that he “was serving a consecutive
    term of imprisonment of one-hundred years” for his other crimes, which
    47
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 48 of 80
    “functionally barred him from ever being paroled” if he were sentenced to life with
    the possibility of parole after 25 years on his murder conviction. 
    Id.
     at 1123–24.
    The Florida Supreme Court, quoting the earlier decision that it had issued in this
    case, rejected the petitioner’s claim on the ground that “[t]he introduction of this
    evidence would open the door to conjecture and speculation as to how much time a
    prisoner serves of a sentence and distract jurors from the relevant issue of what is
    the appropriate sentence for the murder conviction.” Booker v. State, 
    773 So. 2d 1079
    , 1088 (Fla. 2000) (quoting Bates, 
    750 So. 2d at 11
    ).
    Applying AEDPA standards, we held that the Florida Supreme Court’s
    decision in Booker was not contrary to or “an unreasonable application of clearly
    established federal law, which thus far has only addressed jury instructions in the
    circumstance of statutory parole ineligibility.” Id. at 1126. We explained that
    “Simmons does not control where the defendant is statutorily eligible for release
    on parole,” and that “Ramdass rejected the functional approach to parole eligibility
    that [the petitioner] urges us to adopt here.” Id. Even if the state court’s decision
    “violate[d] the spirit of Simmons,” we concluded in Booker that it did not violate
    any clearly established Supreme Court precedent about “the necessity of an
    instruction to inform the jury of the length of a defendant’s likely term of
    48
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014        Page: 49 of 80
    imprisonment.” Id. at 1126–27 (quotation marks and ellipsis omitted). Our
    Booker decision forecloses Bates’ claim. 12
    The need for AEDPA deference here is no different than it was in Booker.13
    Indeed, there appears to be even more reason to defer to the Florida Supreme
    Court’s decision in this case because Bates, unlike the petitioner in Booker, cannot
    colorably claim that his other consecutives sentences “functionally barred him
    from ever being paroled.”14 Id. at 1124. At the time Bates was sentenced for his
    non-homicide offenses, Florida law provided that he would be eligible for parole
    12
    Judge Wilson’s concurring opinion insists that our decision in Booker does not
    foreclose Bates’ claim that he is entitled to federal habeas relief based on a violation of his due
    process rights under Simmons. But it does. The petitioner in Booker, like the petitioner here,
    asserted that “the state court violated his due process rights when it refused to instruct the jury
    regarding his other consecutive sentences.” Booker, 684 F.3d at 1124. And we held that the
    petitioner was not entitled to federal habeas relief because the Florida Supreme Court’s rejection
    of that claim was neither contrary to, nor an unreasonable application of, “Simmons or its
    progeny” or any other “clearly established federal law, which thus far has only addressed jury
    instructions in the circumstances of statutory parole ineligibility.” Id. at 1126. Because there
    were no changes in clearly established federal law between the time the Florida Supreme Court
    decided Booker’s appeal and the time it decided Bates’ appeal, Bates’ near-identical claim for
    federal habeas relief must also fail under AEDPA standards.
    13
    Bates attempts to distinguish Booker and Ramdass on the ground that neither case
    involved a defendant who agreed to waive his right to parole eligibility. [Bl.Br. at 60] But that
    is a distinction without a difference because the Florida Supreme Court has conclusively
    determined, as matter of state law, that Bates had no right to waive his parole eligibility and
    effectively opt for a sentence that was not authorized by the law in effect at the time he
    committed first-degree murder. Bates has not cited any Supreme Court precedent holding that
    states must permit a defendant to waive a state law applicable to his sentencing simply because it
    would be advantageous for him to do so.
    14
    Unlike Bates’ consecutive sentences, all of which carried the possibility of parole,
    there is no indication from the face of our opinion in Booker that the petitioner in that case was
    eligible for parole on his consecutive term of 100 years imprisonment. Indeed, in Booker we
    assumed that the petitioner would have to satisfy “his multiple terms of incarceration” before
    becoming eligible for parole on a possible life sentence for his murder conviction. 684 F.3d at
    1122 & n.1.
    49
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 50 of 80
    on his two life sentences “within 5 years after the initial date of confinement in
    execution of the judgment,” and would be eligible for parole on his remaining
    fifteen-year sentence “within 24 months” of that same date. See 
    Fla. Stat. § 947.16
    (1)(c)-(d) (1983). Had the resentencing jury fixed Bates’ sentence for
    first-degree murder at life, it appears that he would have been eligible for parole on
    all of his convictions within 37 years of his initial 1983 confinement or 25 years
    after his 1995 resentencing proceeding. See 
    id.
     § 947.16(2)(g) (“For purposes of
    determining eligibility for parole interview and release, . . . [e]ach mandatory
    minimum portion of consecutive sentences shall be served consecutively.”).
    Because parole was still a legal possibility, however remote and however far
    removed, at the time of Bates’ resentencing proceeding, his circumstances fell
    outside the narrow confines of Simmons’ constitutional rule, which applies only
    when lifetime parole ineligibility is a certainty under state law. See Simmons, 
    512 U.S. at 171
    , 114 S.Ct. at 2198 (plurality opinion) (“The State may not create a false
    dilemma by advancing generalized arguments regarding the defendant’s future
    dangerousness while, at the same time, preventing the jury from learning that the
    defendant never will be released on parole.”) (emphasis added); Ramdass, 530 U.S.
    at 181, 
    120 S.Ct. at
    2127–28 (O’Connor, J., concurring) (“Simmons does not
    require courts to estimate the likelihood of future contingencies concerning the
    defendant’s parole ineligibility. Rather, Simmons entitles the defendant to inform
    50
    Case: 13-11882      Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 51 of 80
    the capital sentencing jury that he is parole ineligible where the only alternative
    sentence to death is life without the possibility of parole.”) (emphasis added). The
    Florida courts had leeway in deciding whether the jury should be informed of
    Bates’ other consecutive sentences, none of which guaranteed that he would never
    be released from prison if he were given a life sentence for first-degree murder.
    See Simmons, 
    512 U.S. at 168
    , 114 S.Ct. at 2196 (plurality opinion) (“[W]e
    generally will defer to a State’s determination as to what a jury should and should
    not be told about sentencing. In a State in which parole is available, how the jury’s
    knowledge of parole availability will affect the decision whether or not to impose
    the death penalty is speculative, and we shall not lightly second-guess a decision
    whether or not to inform a jury of information regarding parole.”); id. at 176, 114
    S.Ct. at 2200 (O’Connor, J., concurring) (“In a State in which parole is available,
    the Constitution does not require (or preclude) jury consideration of that fact.”).
    As the Supreme Court explained in Ramdass, a “functional approach” to
    parole ineligibility is neither “necessary [n]or workable” because “[t]he
    possibilities [of when a defendant might be released from prison] are many, the
    certainties few,” and states “might well conclude that the jury would be distracted
    from the other vital issues in the case.” 530 U.S. at 169, 
    120 S.Ct. at 2121
    (plurality opinion). Although it acknowledged that the “latitude” given to states in
    this area is subject to “federal requirements . . . related to the admission of
    51
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 52 of 80
    mitigating evidence,” the Ramdass Court underscored that states could, for a
    variety of reasons, reasonably conclude that information concerning potential
    parole ineligibility might not be material:
    Parole eligibility may be unrelated to the circumstances of the crime
    the jury is considering or the character of the defendant, except in an
    indirect way. Evidence of potential parole ineligibility is of uncertain
    materiality, as it can be overcome if a jury concludes that even if the
    defendant might not be paroled, he may escape to murder again; he
    may be pardoned; he may benefit from a change in parole laws; some
    other change in the law might operate to invalidate a conviction once
    thought beyond review; or he may be no less a risk to society in
    prison. The Virginia Supreme Court had good reason not to extend
    Simmons beyond the circumstances of that case, which included
    conclusive proof of parole ineligibility under state law at the time of
    sentencing.
    
    Id.
     at 169–70, 
    120 S.Ct. at
    2121–22 (citations omitted).15
    The Florida Supreme Court expressed similar concerns when it concluded
    that Bates’ non-homicide sentences were “not relevant mitigation on the issue of
    whether [he] will actually remain in prison for the length of those sentences” and
    “would open the door to conjecture and speculation” because the “length of actual
    prison time is affected by many factors other than the length of the sentence
    imposed by the sentencing court.” Bates, 
    750 So. 2d at 11
    . That court, too, “had
    15
    In his concurring opinion, Judge Wilson expresses his belief that the Supreme Court
    would, if given the chance, likely “conclude that due process requires [the admission of other
    consecutive sentences as] relevant mitigation evidence in a capital sentencing.” That belief flies
    in the face of the fact that the Court has already rejected a “functional approach” to parole
    ineligibility and given several reasons why “[e]vidence of potential parole ineligibility is of
    uncertain materiality.” See Ramdass, 530 U.S. at 169–70, 
    120 S.Ct. at
    2121–22. We have no
    reason to believe that the Supreme Court will rule to the contrary in the future. And, as Judge
    Wilson acknowledges, under AEDPA only past holdings count; future ones are irrelevant.
    52
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014   Page: 53 of 80
    good reason not to extend Simmons beyond the circumstances of that case, which
    included conclusive proof of parole ineligibility under state law at the time of
    sentencing.” See Ramdass, 530 U.S. at 170, 
    120 S.Ct. at 2121
     (plurality opinion).
    We cannot say that the state courts’ refusal to allow Bates to inform the jury of his
    other consecutive sentences, all of which carried the possibility of parole at some
    point, was contrary to or an unreasonable application of clearly established
    Supreme Court precedent. At the very least, some fairminded jurists could
    conclude that the Florida Supreme Court’s decision was not “so lacking in
    justification that there was an error well understood and comprehended in existing
    law,” which forecloses Bates’ entitlement to federal habeas relief under AEDPA’s
    highly deferential standards. See Harrington, 
    131 S.Ct. at
    786–87.
    V.
    For these reasons, we affirm the district court’s denial of Bates’ § 2254
    petition for a writ of habeas corpus.
    AFFIRMED.
    53
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    WILSON, Circuit Judge, concurring:
    Although I ultimately agree that Bates is not entitled to habeas relief on his
    claims, I write separately to emphasize my disagreement with much of the
    Majority’s analysis. First, with respect to Bates’s ineffective assistance of counsel
    claim, although I believe that trial counsel was ineffective, given the dearth of
    clearly established law on this point, I agree that the state court’s adjudication was
    not an unreasonable application of clearly established federal law. Similarly, with
    respect to Bates’s claim involving the resentencing jury’s lack of awareness about
    his consecutive life sentences, I disagree with the Majority’s conclusion that
    existing Supreme Court precedent forecloses his claim. Nevertheless, because I
    agree that the Florida Supreme Court’s adjudication was not contrary to clearly
    established law of the Supreme Court, I ultimately concur in the outcome of that
    claim.
    A.
    Bates’s murder trial began with a prayer in the presence of the jury, and the
    victim’s husband subsequently gave testimony informing the jury that the prayer
    was delivered by none other than the victim’s own minister. This testimony had no
    probative value, but it had great potential to prejudice the jury against Bates. The
    prayer inserted God into Bates’s trial, and the husband’s testimony made clear
    whose side God was on.
    54
    Case: 13-11882       Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 55 of 80
    Bates argues that his trial counsel, Bowers, rendered ineffective assistance
    by failing to object to this highly prejudicial sequence of events, either when the
    trial judge asked the victim’s minister to pray or when the victim’s husband’s
    testimony linked the victim to the minister’s church. Specifically, Bates insists
    that in the racially charged context of this case, where a black defendant stood
    before an all-white jury, beginning the trial with a prayer by the victim’s minister
    was not generic and benign as the district court and the Majority concludes,
    particularly after the jury became aware of who delivered the prayer. Moreover,
    Bates insists that the Florida Supreme Court did not conduct the proper cumulative
    Strickland prejudice analysis because it failed to consider the totality of the
    circumstances within the context of Bates’s trial. 1
    The Florida Supreme Court concluded that this Strickland claim failed on
    the merits. See Bates v. Dugger, 
    604 So. 2d 457
    , 459 n.4 (Fla. 1992). Although
    1
    Part of Bates’s theory may be, as the Majority says, “that an all-white jury cannot give a black
    defendant charged with the murder of a white woman a fair trial.” Maj. Op. at 14. Had Bowers
    secured a mistrial by requesting one after the prayer or at least after the husband’s testimony,
    Bates believes he may have benefitted from a racially diverse jury. That, however, is not Bates’s
    only argument, or his best one. To be perfectly clear, I am focusing here on Bates’s claim that in
    the context of a racially charged environment, which included an all-white jury, a white Christian
    victim whose religion was made evident by her minister’s prayer, and a black defendant, his
    counsel’s failure to object to the minister’s prayer after the husband’s testimony was objectively
    unreasonable. The prejudice Bates suffered as a result of this unobjected-to sequence of events
    was not facing an all-white jury, which perhaps may have been able to give Bates a fair trial
    before they listened to the minister’s opening prayer. Rather, Bates claims, and I agree, that the
    jury was far less likely to be able to give Bates a fair trial after the prayer and the husband’s
    testimony, and that any competent counsel would have objected. This testimony linked the
    minister’s plea for God’s guidance to the victim herself, turning a potentially innocuous prayer
    into a not so subtle reminder that Bates stood accused of murdering a Christian woman and that
    her minister was interested in the trial.
    55
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    Bates insists that the Florida Supreme Court’s determination is not entitled to
    AEDPA deference because it was insufficient and relied upon inaccurate facts, the
    Supreme Court has clarified that “[w]here a state court’s decision is
    unaccompanied by an explanation, the habeas petitioner’s burden still must be met
    by showing there was no reasonable basis for the state court to deny relief.”
    Harrington v. Richter, __ U.S. __, 
    131 S. Ct. 770
    , 784 (2011); see Jones v. GDCP
    Warden, __F.3d __, 
    2014 WL 1088312
    , *10 (11th Cir. March 20, 2014) (“AEDPA
    mandates deferential review of any claim that a state court ‘adjudicated on the
    merits,’ 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d), and does not impose any specific requirements on
    how a state court should announce its decision.”). Therefore, we owe the Florida
    Supreme Court’s rejection of Bates’s ineffective assistance of counsel claim
    AEDPA deference, and given that conclusion, I agree with the Majority that Bates
    is not entitled to habeas relief. I am not aware of any clearly established federal
    law, nor has Bates cited any, which indicates that the Florida Supreme Court’s
    determination is an unreasonable determination under Strickland.
    This is not to say that I agree with the Florida Supreme Court’s decision. I
    do not. I concur and do not dissent only because that court’s decision is not
    necessarily an unreasonable one. Unlike the Majority and that court, however, I
    believe that Bates has presented a persuasive Strickland claim. One would expect
    reasonably competent counsel, following a prayer by a murder victim’s minister
    56
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    and subsequent testimony linking the victim to the minister’s church, to request
    permission to approach the bench, to object, and to ask for a mistrial. This is
    especially true given the context of Bates’s original trial: it was a high profile,
    racially charged murder case in a small community. 2
    I agree with the Majority that interrupting either the prayer or the husband’s
    testimony with an immediate objection would have been imprudent. I also agree
    that if Bowers had waited too long to object, his objection would have been barred
    by the contemporaneous-objection rule. See, e.g., United States v. Turner, 
    474 F.3d 1265
    , 1267 (11th Cir. 2007) (refusing to consider an objection to testimony
    where the “objection was made by defense counsel only the next day” (emphasis
    added)). I disagree, however, that competent counsel would not find an
    opportunity to object in the rather large window of time between the moment the
    husband gave the objectionable testimony (when an objection would have been
    imprudent) and “the next day” (when an objection would have been untimely).
    Had Bowers asked to approach the bench immediately after the husband’s
    testimony concluded but before the next witness was called, the objection would
    2
    During the postconviction evidentiary hearing, Bowers testified that the jurors could have
    drawn a prejudicial conclusion from the prayer and subsequent testimony given the racial tension
    in the case. In his brief, Bates explains that “[n]o black defendant in a death penalty case in
    Panama City had ever been acquitted where the victim was white. Of the five death sentences
    rendered in Bay County, all five were black defendants with white victims. Three of the
    sentences were handed down to Mr. Bates since 1983. The other two death sentences were
    imposed on Carl Jackson and Eric Turner, whose cases were overturned and reduced to life
    sentences by the Florida Supreme Court. See Jackson v. State, 
    359 So. 2d 1190
     (Fla. 1978);
    Turner v. State, 
    645 So. 2d 444
     (1994).”
    57
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014        Page: 58 of 80
    have been timely. The contemporaneous-objection rule does not foreclose
    objections raised after a witness’s testimony, particularly if counsel explains the
    reason for any delay.
    I also fail to see why Bowers would have been conflicted about approaching
    the bench to request a mistrial. The upside, securing a mistrial, could not have
    been more beneficial to Bates given the jury’s mounting prejudice against him. In
    this context, the prospects for securing a mistrial need not be very great to make it
    incompetent not to even ask for one.3 The Majority suggests that there is a
    significant downside to asking for a mistrial in the manner just described, but I do
    not see it. The Majority explains that approaching the bench would have invited
    the jury to speculate and that if the objection had been overruled, the jury would
    have been left bewildered. Even if this is true, is it really better to leave the jury
    prejudiced, instead? I cannot take seriously the notion that prosecutors would
    voice no objection to beginning a murder trial with a prayer by the defendant’s
    minister, even though all the reasons The Majority discusses for not objecting
    would be equally applicable in that context. When God is inserted into a trial on
    the opponent’s side, whatever slight reservations competent attorneys have about
    raising objections (not wanting to be quarrelsome, not wanting to exhaust the
    3
    There is no certainty that Bowers’s objection, had it been raised, would have been sustained,
    but by remaining silent, there was a certainty that a mistrial would not be granted. Depriving a
    client of a significant, even if not certain, opportunity for a mistrial under these circumstances is
    incompetent.
    58
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 59 of 80
    court’s patience, and not wanting to “bewilder” the jury) pale in comparison to
    such obvious and significant prejudice.
    The Majority opinion further supposes that Bowers may have refrained from
    objecting because he feared having his objection overruled, but that can hardly
    justify an attorney’s decision not to raise an objection in the first place. If that
    were an adequate justification, a lawyer could never be faulted for failing to raise
    an objection because it is always true that an objection might be overruled. This
    logic depends on the fallacy that having an objection overruled is highly
    counterproductive, such that a lawyer who hears prejudicial testimony is placed in
    a lose-lose situation: objecting is bad because the objection might be overruled, but
    remaining silent is also bad because the prosecution may inject even more
    prejudice into the trial. But here, at worst, Bowers faced a win-no lose situation.
    Had he raised the objection, he might have secured a mistrial and spared his client
    from prejudice, but at worst, his objection would have been overruled out of the
    jury’s hearing, leading to a momentary break in the proceedings at an already
    natural breaking point (between the testimony of two witnesses). In short, Bowers
    passed up an opportunity for a significant upside in order to avoid a virtually non-
    existent downside. 4
    4
    The Majority opinion insists that we cannot expect competent attorneys to raise objections that
    are meritless. On that point, I agree. But a potentially losing claim is different than a meritless
    one. We might expect competent counsel to object to highly prejudicial evidence even if there is
    59
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    Further, the fact that Bowers thought “nothing of the prayer” and that he
    never even considered moving for a mistrial is all the more reason to believe that
    his failure to object was incompetent and was not the product of thoughtful
    consideration. He did not balance the pros of objecting to this highly prejudicial
    evidence against the cons of potentially drawing attention to the prejudice, as the
    Majority would have it. Instead, Bowers incompetently failed to see the prejudice
    at all and sat idly by as the court and the prosecution stacked the deck against his
    only a 49% chance that the objection will be sustained, but of course if the odds of success are
    only 1%, competent counsel’s calculus may change. This consideration assumes that the
    objectionable evidence is prejudicial, however, and as the Majority recognizes, in addition to
    considering the odds of having an objection sustained, competent counsel must also assess
    whether the evidence is bad for the client. All else being equal, as evidence becomes more
    prejudicial, competent attorneys will be more willing to raise objections that may not be
    sustained. And at the other extreme, when an event transpires that does nothing to harm a
    client’s interests, even if it is 100% certain that an objection to the event will be sustained,
    competent attorneys will not necessarily object because there is nothing to gain by doing so.
    Relying on this imminently logical proposition, the Majority suggests that if Bates could not
    ultimately show prejudice for purposes of Strickland, then we cannot conclude that his attorney
    was incompetent for failing to object. To be clear, I believe that Bates can show prejudice for
    Strickland purposes. But even if he could not, I disagree with the Majority opinion’s conclusion.
    The fact that an appellate court may ultimately conclude, looking back, that an error was not
    prejudicial for Strickland purposes does not mean that the potential error was not sufficiently
    prejudicial to mandate action by a competent attorney on the spot. We assess prejudice for
    Strickland purposes under the totality of the circumstances, with the benefit of all the evidence
    and with knowledge of all subsequent events. Prejudicial evidence to which an attorney might
    have objected is often outweighed by subsequent, overwhelming proof of guilt, and we often find
    that a Strickland claim fails on the second prong of the analysis for this reason.
    But it would be patently incompetent for an attorney listening to prejudicial evidence during a
    trial to analyze the effect on his client in the same way. For one thing, he obviously does not
    know what the totality of the circumstances will be because he cannot predict the future.
    Further, the fact that subsequent evidence might render earlier prejudice harmless does not mean
    that a lawyer should simply throw up his hands and allow the prosecution to pile prejudice on top
    of prejudice. Indeed, if that were the case, a lawyer representing a man confronted with
    overwhelming evidence of his guilt could never be incompetent under the first prong of
    Strickland. Surely that cannot be. Competent lawyers object to prejudicial testimony even if—
    perhaps particularly if—the cases against their clients are overwhelming.
    60
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014        Page: 61 of 80
    client. 5 As I have already said, however, while I believe Bates established a
    Strickland claim, we cannot grant habeas on this basis because the Florida
    Supreme Court’s contrary conclusion was not unreasonable.6
    It is bad enough that, in the course of denying habeas relief on Bates’s
    Strickland claim, the Majority countenances a defense attorney’s failure to object
    to highly prejudicial proceedings that have no probative value in a trial. However,
    I believe that the manner in which the Majority relies upon Establishment Clause
    cases to conclude that Bates’s Strickland claim fails is even more problematic and
    5
    The Majority correctly notes that competent attorneys do not make all objections that could be
    made, even if there is nothing to lose by objecting. To be clear, I do not find Bates’s Strickland
    claim persuasive because there would have been no downside to raising an objection. Instead, I
    find Bates’s Strickland claim persuasive because, in addition to having almost nothing to lose by
    objecting, Bowers had a lot to gain. His client was prejudiced by proceedings at trial, and at that
    point, Bowers had two options: allow the trial to proceed, despite the obvious downside that the
    trial was infected with prejudice against his client, or object and request a mistrial, which has no
    perceptible downside and which would have given Bates at least a shot at a new trial uninfected
    by prejudice. Faced with these options, competent attorneys do not opt for silence.
    6
    The Majority explains that Bowers admitted only that the jury could have drawn a prejudicial
    inference against Bates based on the prayer and subsequent testimony. From this, the Majority
    concludes that we would merely be speculating about whether or not prejudice occurred, which
    is not enough to establish a Strickland claim. This argument misses the point. Bates’s entire
    argument is that his counsel’s barometer for measuring prejudice was not functioning properly,
    so it does not do much good for us to rely heavily on that barometer now. While Bowers
    perceived no prejudice at the time and merely speculated after the fact that there might have been
    prejudice to Bates, Bates claims there was prejudice at trial but only realized later that the
    potential was there. More to the point, we are not here to evaluate what Bowers believed;
    instead, we are here to evaluate what objectively competent counsel would have believed and
    done. I think competent counsel would have assessed, on the spot, that the prejudice was real,
    not speculative, and I think competent counsel would have done something about it.
    That the record does not reveal much about how prejudicial the testimony in question
    truly was does not, as the Majority suggests, support the government’s position. Instead, the
    silence in the record is a consequence of Bowers’s failure to perceive the prejudice; it is not a
    sign that there was no prejudice. We know that testimony linked the minister, and thus the trial’s
    opening prayer, to the victim, and we know that Bowers did nothing about it, leaving the record
    on this point underdeveloped. All this tells us is that Bowers failed to react, not that he had no
    reason to react.
    61
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    unnecessary. Because the Florida Supreme Court addressed Bates’s Strickland
    claim on the merits, the first question we must address is whether that court
    unreasonably applied Strickland in holding that Bowers’s failure to object to a
    prayer and subsequent testimony was not ineffective. I agree that it did not, and
    we could leave it at that.
    To be fair, I discussed how I would have addressed the Strickland issue were
    we to analyze the issue de novo, so I cannot quarrel with the Majority’s decision to
    do the same. I must, however, raise a few issues with the Majority’s analysis,
    which is in deep tension with Strickland itself. To begin with, I would frame the
    question differently than has the Majority. The Majority asks only whether
    Bowers was incompetent for failing to object to the prayer itself. Had Bowers
    objected only to the prayer, I agree that his objection might have been best framed
    as an Establishment Clause challenge. That is not precisely what Bates claims
    Bowers should have objected to, however. Instead, Bates also insists that Bowers
    was incompetent for failing to object to the prayer after the husband’s testimony
    linked the prayer and the minister to the victim. In other words, we need not
    address whether the Establishment Clause prevented the trial court from inviting
    God into the courtroom; rather, we must address whether competent attorneys
    would object to testimony placing God on the victim’s side. That changes the
    objection from an Establishment Clause challenge to a run-of-the-mill objection to
    62
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 63 of 80
    highly prejudicial testimony that has no probative value. The Establishment
    Clause cases cited by the Majority are irrelevant to this inquiry.
    Even assuming that we must address whether Bowers was incompetent for
    failing to raise an initial objection to the prayer itself on Establishment Clause
    grounds, we have no reason to address the Establishment Clause cases. As the
    Majority makes clear, it believes the prayer itself was entirely innocuous,
    unobjectionable, and did not prejudice the jury against Bates in any way. The
    Strickland analysis should thus be quite simple: competent attorneys in Bowers’s
    position would not have objected because nothing about the prayer harmed Bates.
    The Majority’s Strickland analysis should stop there. After all, regardless of the
    odds of success, why object or ask for a mistrial if there is no reason to think that
    the next jury will be any more sympathetic (or less prejudiced) than the current
    one?
    To justify discussing the Establishment Clause, the Majority explains that it
    is only analyzing what a competent attorney in Bowers’s position would have
    done. In order to do this, the Majority claims we need to know whether Bowers’s
    objection to the prayer itself would have been sustained under the Establishment
    Clause because that, in turn, informs our analysis of whether a competent attorney
    in Bowers’s position would have objected. I disagree with both propositions.
    63
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    In analyzing Bates’s Strickland claim, our goal is to recreate the situation
    confronting Bowers when he failed to object. The Majority states that it is
    reasonable to conclude that counsel’s failure to object was not deficient because
    the “United States Supreme Court has never held that it is a violation of either the
    Due Process Clause or the Establishment Clause to begin a criminal trial with a
    prayer, let alone a violation of the Establishment Clause that would require
    reversal, a mistrial, or any other form of relief.” Maj. Op. at 19. The Majority also
    asserts that “we are deciding . . . that given the state of the law at the time of trial
    (and now), it was (and still is) not clearly established that the opening prayer
    violated the Establishment Clause. . . . As a result, a reasonably competent
    attorney could conclude that objecting . . . would not benefit his client.” Maj. Op.
    at 21, n.9 (emphasis added).
    In essence, the Majority is asserting that counsel cannot be found
    incompetent for failing to raise an objection under Strickland unless the Supreme
    Court has clearly established that the unraised objection would have been
    sustained. That simply cannot be the case, as competent trial counsel’s goal is not
    to have 100% of his objections sustained; it is instead to secure the most favorable
    circumstances for his client. When assessing a trial court’s actions, the competent
    attorney’s first question is not, “What have federal courts clearly said on this
    subject, and if I object, how likely am I to be sustained?” Instead, the competent
    64
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    attorney’s first question is, “Do these actions harm my client’s interests, and if so,
    what are the best arguments I can make to remedy the prejudice that has just
    occurred?” If the best argument is one that has neither been explicitly accepted or
    rejected by federal courts, and counsel decides not to make the argument for that
    reason, I think that decision would very likely be incompetent.
    Indeed, the question of how clearly established the grounds for an objection
    are in federal law is often largely irrelevant to a trial attorney in state court. For
    example, assuming that the Supreme Court had clearly established that Bates
    would have been entitled to a mistrial had Bowers objected to the prayer,
    competent counsel still may not have objected for reasons wholly unrelated to the
    clarity of federal law. If, as the Majority claims, the jury was not prejudiced
    against Bates either before or after the prayer, then even if Bowers could have
    secured a mistrial, why would he want to? Competent lawyers do not halt
    proceedings only to start them over again—even if the Supreme Court has clearly
    established that they can—when there is no reason to believe that starting over will
    be any better for their clients.
    On the other hand, if Supreme Court precedent was not clearly established
    one way or the other, and a defendant’s trial began with a prayer asking the jury to
    bring the defendant to justice or to bring closure to the victim’s family, the
    prejudice would be extreme. In that case, it would likely be incompetent for
    65
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 66 of 80
    counsel to do nothing regardless of whether the Supreme Court had clearly
    established that beginning a trial with a biased prayer is grounds for a mistrial,
    unless he had legitimate strategic reasons for doing nothing. That case law is not
    definitive on the issue is no excuse for the attorney to sit in silence and to do
    absolutely nothing to suggest that gaps in case law be filled in in his client’s favor. 7
    In order to justify its discussion of the Establishment Clause in a case about
    a Strickland claim, the Majority explains that counsel cannot be deemed ineffective
    for failing “to raise meritless arguments.” Diaz v. Sec’y, Dept. of Corr., 
    402 F.3d 1136
    , 1142 (11th Cir. 2005) (emphasis added). As the Majority explains, however,
    the most that can be said of case law regarding any objection Bowers might have
    raised under the Establishment Clause is that federal law does not clearly establish
    that such an objection would prevail. I have no problem concluding that attorneys
    cannot be found incompetent for failing to raise meritless claims, but I think it is
    entirely different—and highly inappropriate—to suggest that attorneys could never
    be found incompetent for failing to raise a claim simply because it is not clearly
    established. But this is the interpretation of Strickland the Majority advances.
    Worse still, in a case where our only task is to assess the reasonableness of the
    7
    Further, from the standpoint of a criminal defense attorney operating in state court, that the
    Supreme Court has no clearly established precedent does not necessarily suggest that there is a
    gap in case law at all. If the Florida Supreme Court had clearly established precedent
    interpreting the Establishment Clause to forbid prayers at the beginning of a criminal trial and
    explaining that a mistrial is the only adequate remedy, then the absence of clearly established
    federal law would be entirely irrelevant to our Strickland analysis.
    66
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    Florida Supreme Court’s resolution of a Strickland claim, the Majority attempts to
    convert a potential Establishment Clause claim from “not clearly established” to
    “meritless.” This obvious overreach makes a mess of Strickland and potentially
    forecloses a claim that we have absolutely no reason to address.
    At least by explaining that “we are not deciding whether the opening prayer
    violated the Establishment Clause,” Maj. Op. at 21, n.9, the Majority recognizes
    that whether trials can begin with prayers is still an open question. It is important
    to point out that this remains true despite the Majority’s claim that “federal courts
    of appeal have rejected such Establishment Clause challenges where the content of
    the prayer did not prejudice the defendant or substantially impair his right to a fair
    trial.” Maj. Op. at 19 (emphasis added). In support of this proposition, the
    Majority cites Isaacs v. Head and Marsh v. Chambers, neither of which support the
    Majority’s conclusion. See Isaacs, 
    300 F.3d 1232
    , 1252–53 (11th Cir. 2002)
    (rejecting a habeas claim that the state court had unreasonably applied the Supreme
    Court’s Establishment Clause precedent by not reversing a conviction where there
    had been a prayer to open a trial, reasoning that there was a lack of Supreme Court
    precedent supporting a reversal); Marsh, 
    463 U.S. 783
    , 
    103 S. Ct. 3330
     (1983)
    (holding that a prayer at the commencement of a legislative session did violate the
    Establishment clause). These cases tell us only that it is not clearly established that
    Bowers’s objection to the prayer would have been sustained. They do not tell us
    67
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    that it should have (or would have) been overruled had it been made, or that the
    objection would have been meritless such that Bowers cannot be faulted for having
    failed to raise it. The same can be said of the Supreme Court’s recent decision in
    Town of Greece, NY v. Galloway. 
    134 S. Ct. 1811
     (2014) (rejecting an
    Establishment Clause challenge to opening town board meetings with a sectarian
    Christian prayer). 8
    Ironically, the Majority emphasizes that Bates cannot disguise an
    Establishment Clause claim as a Strickland claim because he was only granted a
    Certificate of Appealability (COA) on the Strickland issue. See Maj. Op. at 14,
    n.1. Given that Bates is precluded from making an Establishment Clause claim, it
    is inappropriate—particularly in an AEDPA case concerning a Strickland claim—
    for the Majority to imply that Establishment Clause cases foreclose objections to
    prayers at the beginning of a trial. Ultimately, however, because of the deference
    afforded state courts under AEDPA and the absence of clearly established federal
    8
    The Majority also cites United States v. Walker, 
    696 F.2d 277
    , 282 (4th Cir. 1982). To be sure,
    that case advances the argument the Majority unnecessarily makes here that Bowers’s objection,
    had he raised it, might not have been sustained. But the fact that the Majority has to resort to out
    of Circuit precedent to support its point shows that the question of what might have happened
    had Bowers objected is an open one in this Circuit. It also underscores how implausible it is to
    suggest that Bowers was competent based on the assumption that he did not raise an objection
    because he believed the state trial court would extend the law of our sister Circuit to overrule his
    objection. It would have been the government’s job to argue why the state court should adopt
    that precedent, and it is competent defense counsel’s job, if the objection would benefit his
    client, to explain why the Fourth Circuit’s non-binding case was wrongly decided or is
    distinguishable. Under the Majority’s view, the government’s job would become very easy,
    because as soon as an adverse ruling comes out in any federal court against a defendant’s
    position, apparently competent defense counsel are no longer expected to raise the objection in
    any other jurisdiction.
    68
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014         Page: 69 of 80
    law of the Supreme Court, I concur in concluding that the Florida Supreme Court’s
    adjudication of the Strickland claim was not unreasonable. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1).
    B.
    Bates makes three related claims with respect to revised Florida Statute §
    775.082(1), which provides for a possible sentence of life without parole. First,
    Bates argues that the resentencing judge erred by failing to allow Bates to waive
    his right against ex post facto application of laws in order to apply the newer
    version of § 775.082(1) to him, which provides a possible sentence of life without
    parole.9 Second, Bates maintains that the judge erred by failing to enter Bates’s
    soliloquy seeking retroactive application of the sentencing statute into evidence so
    that the jury would know that Bates was willing to forego any potential opportunity
    for parole. Third, Bates argues that the resentencing judge erred by failing to
    instruct the resentencing jury that Bates had been sentenced to two life terms and
    one 15-year term for the other crimes which would run consecutively, facts which
    he believes would have made the jury less likely to recommend death because they
    9
    Alternatively, Bates maintains that the application of the statute as revised by the Florida
    Legislature in 1994 would not violate the prohibition against ex post facto application of laws.
    See Weaver v. Graham, 
    450 U.S. 24
    , 29, 
    101 S. Ct. 960
    , 964 (1981) (providing a two prong test
    to determine if a statute violates the ex post facto prohibition, asking (1) is the law retrospective,
    and if so, (2) if it is disadvantageous to the offender). Here, Bates argues that the amended §
    775.082(1), if applied, would be advantageous, not disadvantageous, under the circumstances of
    his resentencing.
    69
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014        Page: 70 of 80
    would have known that he would be imprisoned for a long time. 10 Bates asserts
    that these failures denied him due process and a fundamentally fair capital
    sentencing under the Eighth and Fourteenth Amendments. See Stringer v. Black,
    
    503 U.S. 222
    , 232, 
    112 S. Ct. 1130
    , 1137 (1992) (“[W]hen the sentencing body is
    told to weigh an invalid factor in its decision, a reviewing court may not assume it
    would have made no difference if the thumb had been removed from death’s side
    of the scale.”).
    In its adjudication on the merits, the Florida Supreme Court held:
    In Florida, without clear legislative intent to the contrary, a law is
    presumed to apply prospectively. . . . We find no unequivocal
    language that the Legislature intended this [1994] amendment to
    apply retroactively. We have previously held that this statute was not
    applicable to crimes committed before its effective date . . . .
    Our analysis of this issue causes us to reject appellant’s waiver
    arguments. Because the 1994 amendment can have no effect on
    appellant’s sentencing, we conclude that the waiver of an ex post facto
    claim in respect to the 1994 amendment to section 775.082 is of no
    consequence. The waiver of ex post facto rights would only be an
    issue if the statute could have an effect on appellant’s sentence which,
    as we have stated, it cannot.
    10
    Bates’s claim regarding the relevance of his additional life sentences to the resentencing jury is
    within the broad scope of our COA, which authorized Bates to address “[w]hether the Florida
    Supreme Court’s rejection of Appellant’s claim that the trial court’s refusal to instruct the jury
    about Appellant’s parole eligibility, including the effect of consecutive sentences he had left to
    serve, was contrary to law established by the United States Supreme Court or objectively
    unreasonable in light of such precedent.” I disagree with the Majority’s argument that even if
    Bates’s claim is included in our COA, he has abandoned this claim by failing to “plainly and
    prominently” argue it on appeal. Maj. Op. at 27, n.13 (citing Sapuppo v. Allstate Floridian Ins.
    Co., 
    739 F.3d 678
    , 681 (11th Cir. 2014)). Bates has cited the relevant Supreme Court precedents
    in his appellate brief and specifically argued that the resentencing jury’s lack of information
    about his additional consecutive sentences was unconstitutional. That is enough to place the
    issue before us.
    70
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014     Page: 71 of 80
    Appellant’s alternate contention, that the jury should have been
    advised that appellant would agree to waive the possibility of parole,
    is also unavailing under Florida’s capital sentencing scheme because,
    as the trial court ruled, “[a] defendant cannot by agreement confer on
    the court the authority to impose an illegal sentence.” Williams v.
    State, 
    500 So. 2d 501
    , 503 (Fla. 1986). At the time appellant
    committed this murder, the Legislature had not established life
    without the possibility of parole as punishment for this crime.
    In his second issue, appellant argues that the State took advantage of
    the trial court’s failure to instruct the jury on a sentence of life without
    the possibility of parole during cross-examination of appellant’s
    witnesses and closing argument by making future dangerousness an
    issue for the jury. Appellant did not object to either the State’s cross-
    examination or closing argument on this ground, and the issue is
    therefore procedurally barred. Steinhorst v. State, 
    412 So. 2d 332
    , 338
    (Fla. 1982). Moreover, after reviewing the record, we do not agree
    that the State’s cross-examination or argument raised the specter of
    appellant’s future dangerousness. . . .
    As part of his third issue, appellant contends that the fact that he was
    already sentenced to two life terms plus fifteen years and that those
    sentences were to run consecutively to the sentence for the murder
    was relevant mitigation “in the sense that [it] might serve as a basis
    for a sentence less than death.” We have rejected similar arguments
    in Franqui v. State, 
    699 So. 2d 1312
    , 1326 (Fla. 1997); Marquard v.
    State, 
    641 So. 2d 54
     (Fla. 1994); and Nixon v. State, 
    572 So. 2d 1336
    (Fla. 1990).
    These other sentences are not relevant mitigation on the issue of
    whether appellant will actually remain in prison for the length of those
    sentences. The length of actual prison time is affected by many factors
    other than the length of the sentence imposed by the sentencing court.
    The introduction of this evidence would open the door to conjecture
    and speculation as to how much time a prisoner serves of a sentence
    and distract jurors from the relevant issue of what is the appropriate
    sentence for the murder conviction. Regarding this issue appellant’s
    brief states “[T]he state argued that [appellant] would be eligible for
    parole after serving the mandatory minimum.” Appellant, however,
    71
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 72 of 80
    makes no record reference to support that statement; nor has our
    independent review of the record revealed support for that statement.
    As we stated regarding the previous issue, our review of the record
    causes us to find that the State did not violate Hitchcock v. State, 
    673 So. 2d 859
    , 860 (Fla. 1996), by injecting appellant’s future
    dangerousness into its evidence or argument. We conclude that the
    trial court followed our precedent and did not abuse its discretion in
    respect to this issue.
    Bates v. State, 
    750 So. 2d 6
    , 10–11 (Fla. 1999) (footnote omitted). I note that in
    his concurrence, Justice Shaw of the Florida Supreme Court emphasized that the
    question posed by the resentencing jury indicated that they were clearly confused,
    and the court should have just answered with a simple “Yes” in response to
    whether the jury was limited to life with a minimum of 25 years or the death
    penalty, and “No” in response to whether they could recommend life without the
    possibility of parole. 
    Id. at 20
     (Shaw, J. concurring). There was also a vigorous
    dissent in which Florida Supreme Court Justice Anstead, along with two other
    Florida justices, held that the majority’s refusal to accept Bates’s waiver of his ex
    post facto rights was “unnecessarily harsh and inconsistent with . . . prior case
    law.” 
    Id. at 20
     (Anstead, J., dissenting). In fact, Justice Anstead explained that
    such a waiver would be consistent with prevailing legislative policy, as indicated
    by the legislative amendment itself, and that the court has repeatedly recognized
    that a defendant can waive his constitutional protections. 
    Id.
     at 21 (citing Bowles
    v. Singletary, 
    698 So. 2d 1201
     (Fla. 1997); Melvin v. State, 
    645 So. 2d 448
     (Fla.
    1994)).
    72
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014   Page: 73 of 80
    Nevertheless, upon review of the relevant Supreme Court precedent, I agree
    with the Majority here that the Florida Supreme Court’s adjudication was not
    contrary to, or an unreasonable application of, clearly established federal law.
    With respect to Bates’s first two claims, the state court had previously held that
    this statute was not applicable to crimes committed before its effective date, and
    there was nothing in its legislative history to indicate that defendants could choose
    which sentencing statute would apply. Bates, 
    750 So. 2d at 10
    ; see Hudson v.
    State, 
    708 So. 2d 256
    , 262 (Fla. 1998). Further, Bates has cited no federal law
    requiring or even allowing a defendant to waive the laws applicable to his
    sentencing, regardless of whether such a waiver would be favorable to him or not.
    However, Bates’s third claim, regarding the jury’s knowledge about his
    other convictions, gives me much pause. The Florida Supreme Court explicitly
    rejected Bates’s argument that the fact that he was already sentenced to two life
    terms plus 15 years and that those sentences were to run consecutively to the
    sentence for murder was relevant mitigation “in the sense that [it] might serve as a
    basis for a sentence less than death.” Bates, 
    750 So. 2d at 11
    . The Florida
    Supreme Court continued to say:
    These other sentences are not relevant mitigation on the issue of
    whether appellant will actually remain in prison for the length of those
    sentences. The length of actual prison time is affected by many
    factors other than the length of the sentence imposed by the
    sentencing court. The introduction of this evidence would open the
    door to conjecture and speculation as to how much time a prisoner
    73
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 74 of 80
    serves of a sentence and distract jurors from the relevant issue of what
    is the appropriate sentence for the murder conviction.
    
    Id.
     Cutting against the Florida Supreme Court’s finding that such evidence would
    be irrelevant, longstanding Supreme Court precedent explicitly holds that evidence
    which may call for a penalty less severe than death is relevant in a capital
    sentencing. See Mills v. Maryland, 
    486 U.S. 367
    , 367–77, 
    108 S. Ct. 1860
    , 1867
    (1988) (holding that “the risk that the death penalty will be imposed in spite of
    factors which may call for a less severe penalty is unacceptable and incompatible
    with the commands of the Eighth and Fourteenth Amendments”); Lockett v. Ohio,
    
    438 U.S. 586
    , 604, 
    98 S. Ct. 2954
    , 2964–65 (1978) (holding that “the Eighth and
    Fourteenth Amendments require that the sentencer, in all but the rarest kind of
    capital case, not be precluded from considering, as a mitigating factor, any aspect
    of a defendant’s character or record and any of the circumstances of the offense
    that the defendant proffers as a basis for a sentence less than death” (emphasis and
    footnote omitted)).
    One of the primary factors that any sentencing body must consider is the
    need for incapacitation of the defendant in order to protect the public. See, e.g., 
    18 U.S.C. §3553
    (a)(2)(c) (stating that one of the primary needs of a sentence is to
    “protect the public from further crimes of the defendant”). In this case, the
    resentencing jury was undoubtedly interested in incapacitating Bates because it
    asked if it could impose a life sentence instead of the death penalty, indicating that
    74
    Case: 13-11882         Date Filed: 09/05/2014        Page: 75 of 80
    some jurors wanted to incapacitate Bates, without the possibility of parole, for
    longer than the 12 years remaining on the 25-years-to-life sentence that Bates
    would have received if the jury had voted against death. Admittedly, guaranteed
    life without parole was not an option even if Bates’s other sentences were
    considered because it appears that under Florida’s previous system of parole, Bates
    would have been eligible for review for parole, at an absolute minimum, 12 years
    after the end of his sentence for the first degree murder conviction.11 However,
    given the jury’s question, we do not see any limiting principle in Lockett that
    would render it inapplicable. Indeed, the fact that Bates would be, at a minimum,
    incarcerated for an additional 12 years following his sentence for first degree
    murder, bringing total incarceration if the jury voted against death to at least
    another 24 years, is a “mitigating factor . . . that the defendant proffer[ed] as a
    11
    To understand Bates’s argument, it is critical to understand the options presented to the jury.
    The jury was given two choices: vote for death or for a term of life with the possibility of parole
    after 25 years. Bates had already served 13 years in prison, so the jury believed it had a choice
    between death or a life sentence with the possibility that Bates would be a free man in as few as
    12 years. The actual consequences of the jury’s vote were quite different. Bates had been
    convicted of three other crimes, leading to two additional life sentences and a 15-year sentence,
    all to run consecutively. As the Majority explains, each of these sentences carried the possibility
    of parole. For each of the two life sentences, Bates would serve a minimum of five years, and
    for the 15-year sentence, he would serve at least an additional two years. In total, these other
    sentences guaranteed that Bates would spend, at the very least, an additional 12 years in prison
    without eligibility for parole, on top of whatever sentence the capital sentencing jury selected.
    Thus, while the jury believed that if it did not vote for death, Bates might be free in 12 years, in
    reality, if the jury did not vote for death, Bates could not have been paroled for at least 24 years.
    In other words, a vote for life would have left Bates incapacitated for at least twice as long as the
    jury believed.
    Misinformed as it was, the jury’s vote for death was still fairly close: 9-3. It seems reasonable to
    infer that some jurors who did not believe that 12 years of incapacitation was enough might have
    believed that 24 years was.
    75
    Case: 13-11882       Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 76 of 80
    basis for a sentence less than death.” Lockett, 
    438 U.S. at 604
    , 
    98 S. Ct. at 2964
    . It
    is clear from the jurors’ question that incapacitation was important to them, but on
    this critical issue, the jury was kept in the dark. 12
    We recognize that Simmons v. South Carolina made a jury instruction on
    parole ineligibility mandatory only in a context where lifetime ineligibility was at
    issue, only in the context of rebutting aggravating evidence, and only where the
    jury itself had a life without parole option. 
    512 U.S. 154
    , 175, 
    114 S. Ct. 2187
    ,
    2200 (1994) (O’Connor, J., concurring) (holding that when the state raised the
    specter of a defendant’s future dangerousness, the court violated his due process
    rights by refusing to instruct the jury that, as an alternative to a capital sentence,
    the sentence of life imprisonment included absolutely no possibility of parole).
    Simmons did not, however, either foreclose or explicitly extend that mandatory
    instruction to eligibility for parole for a term of years rather than for a term of life
    or to sentences rendered for other convictions not before the jury. 
    Id.
    Subsequently, Ramdass v. Angelone held that the instruction on ineligibility for
    parole is only required when ineligibility is established with certainty as a matter of
    state law. 
    530 U.S. 156
    , 166, 
    120 S. Ct. 2113
    , 2120 (2000). Thus, Ramdass also
    does not foreclose applying the rule from Simmons in a case like this, where there
    12
    Quite apart from the constitutional question presented here, it also seems to me that when we
    ask jurors to make morally difficult life-and-death decisions, we ought to fully inform them of
    the actual consequences of their choices.
    76
    Case: 13-11882        Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 77 of 80
    is certainty under state law that Bates would be ineligible for parole, at a bare
    minimum, for a term of 12 additional years following the term served for the first
    degree murder. Nor does Ramdass foreclose application of Lockett’s rule that
    relevant mitigating evidence cannot be kept from a capital sentencing jury. Indeed,
    the plurality in Ramdass permitted Virginia to insist on certainty before instructing
    the jury on ineligibility for parole precisely because of how relevant ineligibility
    for parole is to a sentencing jury. 
    Id.
     at 180–81, 120 S. Ct. at 2127–28.13
    Furthermore, Lockett’s rule that defendants are entitled to present evidence
    that may tend to prove to a jury that they deserve a sentence less than death may be
    sufficiently clear to control this case, even under deferential AEDPA review of
    state court decisions. See Panetti v. Quarterman, 
    551 U.S. 930
    , 953, 
    127 S. Ct. 2842
    , 2858 (2007) (“AEDPA does not require state and federal courts to wait for
    some nearly identical factual pattern before a legal rule must be applied. Nor does
    AEDPA prohibit a federal court from finding an application of a principle
    unreasonable when it involves a set of facts different from those of the case in
    13
    Further, I do not agree that this Court’s decision in Booker v. Secretary, Florida Department of
    Corrections, 
    684 F.3d 1121
    , 1126 (11th Cir. 2012), forecloses Bates’s claim. In that case, which
    presented itself upon habeas review, we found that even if the Florida Supreme Court’s
    resolution of the claim “clearly violates the spirit of . . . Simmons, that does not mean that it
    constitutes an unreasonable application of clearly established federal law, which thus far has only
    addressed jury instructions in the circumstance of statutory parole ineligibility.” Booker, 684
    F.3d at 1126 (internal quotation marks omitted). At most, Booker says that violating the spirit of
    Simmons is not contrary to clearly established law. To be clear, I believe that Simmons and
    Ramdass do not foreclose relief on this claim, and that relief is supported by the Supreme
    Court’s decision in Lockett and Mills, but I ultimately conclude that, given AEDPA deference,
    the Florida Supreme Court’s adjudication falls short of violating clearly established federal law
    of the Supreme Court.
    77
    Case: 13-11882       Date Filed: 09/05/2014       Page: 78 of 80
    which the principle was announced. The statute recognizes, to the contrary, that
    even a general standard may be applied in an unreasonable manner.” (internal
    citations omitted)). Thus, according to the Supreme Court’s holding in Panetti, the
    evidentiary rules announced in Lockett and Mills need not specifically address the
    instant factual scenario in order to be applied to grant habeas relief.
    I think it likely, given the highly relevant nature of incapacitation to jurors
    when deciding whether to impose a capital sentence, that the Supreme Court would
    conclude that due process requires including such relevant mitigation evidence in a
    capital sentencing. Moreover, the trial court here, unlike the state trial court in
    Ramdass, could have, without “conjecture and speculation,” Bates, 
    750 So. 2d at 11
    , told the jurors of the 12 years of guaranteed incapacitation that Bates would
    have to serve in addition to what they imposed for the murder conviction.14 Cf.
    Ramdass, 
    530 U.S. at 167
    , 120 S. Ct. at 2120 (holding that a Simmons instruction
    was not warranted because defendant’s third conviction under Virginia’s three-
    strike rule was not final under Virginia law at the time the jury considered the
    murder sentence). Thus, I find the Florida Supreme Court’s reasons for refusing to
    permit the jury instruction unpersuasive.
    14
    We do recognize, however, that while Bates’s counsel asked the resentencing judge for an
    instruction regarding his two additional life sentences and his 15-year sentence, to be served
    consecutively, the only absolutely definitive period of incarceration, under Florida law at the
    time, appears to be 12 years to run consecutively to Bates’s punishment for first degree murder.
    The trial judge, when confronted with either counsel’s request or the jury’s subsequent question,
    could have explained this to the jury.
    78
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 79 of 80
    Nevertheless, a competing principle announced by the Supreme Court in
    California v. Ramos, that state courts are entitled to deference in determining what
    evidence may go before a sentencing jury, combined with AEDPA’s deferential
    standard of review, precludes us from applying Mills and Lockett to this case.
    Ramos, 
    463 U.S. 992
    , 1001, 
    103 S. Ct. 3446
    , 3453 (1983) (stating that it is
    ordinarily proper to “defer[] to the State’s choice of substantive factors relevant to
    the penalty determination”). The Supreme Court further reiterated in Ramdass that
    “States are entitled to some latitude [as] the admissibility of evidence at capital
    sentencing . . . remains . . . an issue left to the States.” Ramdass, 
    530 U.S. at 169
    ,
    120 S. Ct. at 2122–23. Even the Ramdass dissent recognizes the discretion
    typically afforded to state supreme courts: “This is not to say . . . that the
    Constitution compels States to tell the jury every single piece of information that
    may be relevant to its deliberations. Indeed, in California v. Ramos, we held it
    ordinarily proper to defer to the State’s choice of substantive factors relevant to the
    penalty determination.” Id. at 194–95, 120 S. Ct. at 2135 (Stevens, J., dissenting).
    Therefore, despite the Supreme Court’s holding in Panetti that “AEDPA
    does not require state and federal courts to wait for some nearly identical factual
    pattern before a legal rule must be applied,” 
    551 U.S. at 953
    , 
    127 S. Ct. at 2858
    , I
    conclude that Supreme Court’s emphasis on the deference afforded to state courts’
    evidentiary rulings under AEDPA, in light of the ambiguity in the law created by
    79
    Case: 13-11882     Date Filed: 09/05/2014    Page: 80 of 80
    Simmons and Ramdass, precludes us from granting Bates habeas on this claim.
    This highlights a troubling consequence of AEDPA case law: where a precedent
    cannot obviously be extended to the case we have before us, and where the
    Supreme Court has spoken in a tangentially related way to the situation at issue
    without explicitly covering it, we figuratively throw up our hands, repeat the
    refrain that AEDPA requires deference to state courts, and deny habeas relief. To
    be clear, I believe that the Florida Supreme Court’s determination on this issue was
    contrary to the rule articulated in Lockett and reiterated in Mills, but that the more
    recent precedent in Simmons and Ramdass, although distinguishable, generates
    sufficient ambiguity as to preclude relief in an AEDPA context unless or until the
    Supreme Court tells us otherwise. For these reasons alone, I concur in affirming
    the district court’s decision denying Bates habeas relief.
    80