Rivas v. Fischer ( 2015 )


Menu:
  • 13-2974-pr
    Rivas v. Fischer
    In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    for the Second Circuit
    AUGUST TERM 2014
    No. 13-2974-pr
    HECTOR RIVAS,
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    v.
    BRIAN FISCHER,
    Superintendent, Sing Sing Correctional Facility,
    Respondent-Appellee.
    On Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of New York
    ARGUED: DECEMBER 9, 2014
    DECIDED: MARCH 11, 2015
    Before: CABRANES, POOLER, and SACK, Circuit Judges.
    Petitioner Hector Rivas appeals from the judgment of the
    United States District Court for the Northern District of New York
    (Gary L. Sharpe, Chief Judge) denying his amended petition for a writ
    of habeas corpus pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d). On March 25, 1993,
    a jury in Onondaga County Court in Syracuse, New York, found
    Rivas guilty of second-degree murder for killing his former
    girlfriend, Valerie Hill. At trial, the prosecution argued that Rivas
    killed Hill on the night of Friday, March 27, 1987. Rivas was
    sentenced to an indeterminate term of imprisonment of 25 years to
    life, which he has been serving for the last 22 years. In 1999, Rivas
    filed a motion for post-conviction relief pursuant to New York
    Criminal Procedure Law § 440.10, raising, inter alia, a claim of
    ineffective assistance of counsel and presenting essentially
    unchallenged expert testimony persuasively demonstrating that Hill
    could not have died on Friday, March 27, 1987. The Supreme Court
    of the State of New York, Onondaga County, denied Rivas’s § 440.10
    motion in its entirety.
    In 2002, Rivas filed an amended petition for a writ of habeas
    corpus in the District Court. The District Court dismissed the
    petition as time-barred, and we vacated and remanded, holding that
    additional fact-finding on the issue of timeliness was required. After
    an evidentiary hearing, the District Court again dismissed the
    petition as time-barred. We reversed, holding that a ‚credible‛ and
    ‚compelling‛ showing of actual innocence warrants an equitable
    exception to the limitation period set forth by the Antiterrorism and
    Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996, allowing a petitioner to have his
    otherwise time-barred claims heard by a federal court. We
    concluded that Rivas had made such a showing, having produced
    essentially unchallenged expert testimony ‚which call*ed+ into
    serious doubt the central forensic evidence linking him to the
    crime,‛ and, as a result, ‚a reasonable juror, apprised of all the
    evidence in the record, would more likely than not vote to acquit.‛
    We remanded the cause for Rivas’s petition to be heard on the
    2
    merits. On remand, the District Court nonetheless denied Rivas’s
    petition in its entirety.
    Because we conclude that the state court’s denial of Rivas’s
    ineffective-assistance claim involved an ‚unreasonable application‛
    of Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    (1984), we REVERSE the
    judgment of the District Court denying habeas relief and REMAND
    the cause. On remand, the District Court shall issue a writ of habeas
    corpus to Rivas by the sixtieth calendar day after the issuance of our
    mandate unless the state has, by that time, taken concrete and
    substantial steps expeditiously to retry Rivas.
    RICHARD M. LANGONE, Langone &
    Associates, PLLC, Levittown, NY, for
    Petitioner-Appellant.
    PRISCILLA STEWARD, Assistant Attorney
    General (Barbara D. Underwood, Solicitor
    General, Nikki Kowalski, Deputy Solicitor
    General, on the brief), for Eric T.
    Schneiderman, Attorney General for the
    State of New York, New York, NY, for
    Respondent-Appellee.
    JOSÉ A. CABRANES, Circuit Judge:
    The question presented is whether we are required to grant a
    writ of habeas corpus pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d) because the
    state court in this case unreasonably applied Strickland v.
    3
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    (1984), in rejecting petitioner Hector Rivas’s
    claim of ineffective assistance of counsel.
    Rivas was convicted in Onondaga County Court of second-
    degree murder for the death of his former girlfriend, Valerie Hill. At
    trial, the prosecution argued that Rivas killed Hill on the night of
    Friday, March 27, 1987, at her apartment in Syracuse, New York. In
    formulating a defense strategy, Rivas’s defense counsel relied
    principally on Rivas’s professed alibi, which placed him elsewhere
    for most of that weekend. Crucially, however, Rivas did not have an
    alibi during a key three-and-a-half hour window—between
    approximately 9:00 p.m. on Friday, March 27, 1987, and 12:30 a.m.
    on Saturday, March 28, 1987. The prosecution argued that Rivas
    killed Hill during this exact time frame. The prosecution’s case was
    almost entirely circumstantial and turned on the testimony of the
    Chief Medical Examiner, Dr. Erik K. Mitchell.
    At the time of Hill’s murder, Dr. Mitchell had estimated the
    time of Hill’s death as sometime after the close of that window—
    between Saturday, March 28 and Sunday, March 29, 1987. At trial
    nearly six years later, however, Dr. Mitchell expressed a very
    different opinion, testifying instead that Hill died one night earlier—
    on the evening of Friday, March 27, 1987—during which time Rivas
    had no alibi. Despite its critical importance to his client’s case,
    defense counsel failed to investigate the basis for Dr. Mitchell’s
    apparently revised findings regarding the time of death and instead
    relied principally on Rivas’s effectively irrelevant alibi for the
    remainder of the weekend. After deliberating for approximately
    4
    eight hours, the jury in Onondaga County Court found Rivas guilty
    of second-degree murder. He was subsequently sentenced to an
    indeterminate term of imprisonment of 25 years to life.
    On July 12, 1999, Rivas, with new counsel, filed a motion for
    post-conviction relief pursuant to New York Criminal Procedure
    Law § 440.10, raising, inter alia, a claim of ineffective assistance of
    counsel. In his motion, Rivas presented essentially unchallenged
    expert testimony persuasively showing that Hill in fact died
    sometime after 3:30 p.m. on Saturday, March 28, 1987, casting grave
    doubt on the prosecution’s theory that Hill was murdered on Friday
    night. In his § 440.10 filing, Rivas also presented compelling
    evidence further discrediting Dr. Mitchell. Rivas’s filing alleged that
    Dr. Mitchell had perjuriously purported to base his time-of-death
    opinion in part on ‚brain slides‛ that, Rivas later learned, were non-
    existent. Rivas also introduced evidence that, at the time of Rivas’s
    trial, Dr. Mitchell was under investigation by state and local
    agencies (including possibly the office of the prosecutor who
    charged Rivas) for various forms of misconduct. At trial, Rivas’s
    counsel failed to challenge Dr. Mitchell’s reliance on the non-existent
    ‚brain slides,‛ or to cross-examine him regarding the investigations
    into his alleged misconduct that were pending at the very time of
    the prosecution of Rivas.
    On September 8, 2000, the Supreme Court of the State of New
    York, Onondaga County, denied Rivas’s § 440.10 motion, holding,
    inter alia, that ‚*d+efense counsel employed a trial strategy based
    upon a defense that defendant was sufficiently alibied for the entire
    5
    weekend, . . . and that the People would not be able to prove
    defendant’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt [as to] whether the jury
    found that the crime occurred on Friday night or on Saturday
    night.‛ People v. Rivas, No. 92-2794, slip. op. at 34–35 (N.Y. Sup. Ct.
    Sept. 8, 2000). On June 19, 2002, Rivas filed an amended petition for
    a writ of habeas corpus in the United States District Court for the
    Northern District of New York, raising substantially the same claims
    that he advanced in his § 440.10 motion. The District Court (Gary L.
    Sharpe, Judge) dismissed Rivas’s petition as time-barred under 28
    U.S.C. § 2254(d). See Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891, ECF No. 21
    (N.D.N.Y. Jan. 28, 2005). We vacated and remanded, holding that
    additional fact-finding on the issue of timeliness and actual
    innocence was required. See Rivas v. Fischer, 294 F. App’x 677, 678–79
    (2d Cir. 2008).
    After a hearing, the District Court again dismissed the petition
    as untimely. See Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891 (GLS/DEP), 
    2010 WL 1257935
    (N.D.N.Y. Mar. 26, 2010). We reversed, holding as a matter
    of first impression in this Circuit that a ‚credible‛ and ‚compelling‛
    showing of actual innocence warrants an equitable exception to
    AEDPA’s limitation period, allowing a petitioner to have his
    otherwise time-barred claims heard by a federal court. Rivas v.
    Fischer, 
    687 F.3d 514
    , 517–18 (2d Cir. 2012). We concluded that Rivas
    had   made        such   a   showing,   having   produced    essentially
    unchallenged expert testimony ‚which call*ed+ into serious doubt
    the central forensic evidence linking him to the crime,‛ and, as a
    result, ‚a reasonable juror, apprised of all the evidence in the record,
    6
    would more likely than not vote to acquit.‛ 
    Id. at 552.
    We remanded
    the cause for Rivas’s petition to be heard on the merits. After hearing
    oral argument, the District Court nonetheless denied Rivas’s petition
    in its entirety. See Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891 (GLS), 
    2013 WL 4026844
    (N.D.N.Y. Aug. 6, 2013).
    We now reverse. We hold that, in viewing all the
    circumstances at the time, no reasonable argument can be made that
    Rivas’s defense counsel satisfied his ‚duty to make reasonable
    investigations or to make a reasonable decision that makes
    particular investigations unnecessary.‛ 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 691
    .
    We further hold that no reasonable argument can be made that
    defense counsel’s deficient performance did not prejudice the
    defense. See 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 687
    . As a result, the state court’s
    conclusion to the contrary involved an ‚unreasonable application‛
    of Strickland. 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1).
    Accordingly, we REVERSE the judgment of the District Court
    denying habeas relief and REMAND the cause. On remand, the
    District Court shall issue a writ of habeas corpus to Rivas by the
    sixtieth calendar day after the issuance of our mandate unless the
    state has, by that time, taken concrete and substantial steps
    expeditiously to retry Rivas.
    BACKGROUND
    We previously set forth the relevant facts in our prior opinion,
    Rivas v. Fischer, 
    687 F.3d 514
    (2d Cir. 2012). We incorporate those
    facts herein by reference and reproduce the relevant portions here:
    7
    [BEGINNING OF QUOTED PASSAGES FROM OUR
    PRIOR 2012 OPINION]1
    A.      The Murder of Valerie Hill
    At approximately 11:45 a.m. on Monday, March
    30, 1987, Randall Hill (‚Randall‛) discovered the lifeless
    body of his twenty-eight-year-old daughter, Valerie Hill
    (‚Hill‛), on the living-room floor of her apartment on
    Hickok Avenue in Syracuse, New York. Transcript of
    the Trial of Hector Rivas (March 17, 1993) (‚Trial Tr.‛)
    at 103.
    Randall had last seen his daughter on Friday
    night, March 27, when the two met for dinner at a
    nearby restaurant. He later recalled that Hill seemed
    upset during their meeting and did not eat anything. 
    Id. at 96–98.
    During their conversation, Hill informed her
    father that she was planning to spend the weekend
    visiting a friend in the Albany area and would not
    return until Sunday evening. 
    Id. at 99.
    Hill left the
    restaurant at approximately 8:15 p.m. on Friday. 
    Id. at 97–98.
    The friend Hill planned to visit, Laura Adams,
    later testified that she called Hill ‚dozens of times‛ on
    Friday night and throughout the weekend, but never
    1 Although our previous recitation of the facts drew from both the record
    of Rivas’s state collateral proceeding and the evidentiary hearing held by the
    District Court, 
    id. at 518,
    our review under 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d) ‚is limited to the
    record that was before the state court that adjudicated the claim on the merits,‛
    Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    131 S. Ct. 1388
    , 1398 (2011). The footnotes within the quoted
    passages are numbered as in the original. Brackets are used to correct
    typographical errors.
    8
    reached her, although she encountered at least one
    ‚busy‛ signal. 
    Id. at 217–19,
    221. Randall also had no
    success when he attempted to call Hill on Sunday night
    and again Monday morning. 
    Id. at 99–100.
    On Monday morning, Randall went to the
    hospital where Hill was employed as a pediatric nurse
    (and where Randall’s wife was then admitted as a
    patient) and discovered that Hill had not reported to
    work. 
    Id. at 101,
    103. Concerned, he drove to Hill’s
    apartment, where he found her car parked in the
    driveway. Randall let himself in through the unlocked
    side door and discovered Hill lying ‚face down on the
    carpet‛ in her living room. She was wearing a bathrobe,
    which was pulled ‚up around her shoulders,‛ and was
    otherwise naked. 
    Id. at 100–03.
    The belt of the bathrobe
    was wrapped around her neck. 
    Id. at 157.
    Randall immediately called the police, as well as
    his son, David. 
    Id. at 104.
    Arriving at the scene, police
    investigators found no signs of forced entry into Hill’s
    apartment, which was on the bottom floor of a two-
    family house. 
    Id. at 107,
    228–29. The apartment was
    ‚very neat,‛ and nothing appeared to be out of order.
    
    Id. at 228.
    A number of cigarettes of the brand Rivas
    smoked were found in an ashtray in Hill’s kitchen. 
    Id. at 150–51,
    638. Later testing revealed that fingerprints on
    the ashtray, as well as on a bottle of wine, belonged to
    Rivas. 
    Id. at 591–93.2
    In addition to Rivas’s and Hill’s
    2Rivas, having dated Hill, had been in her apartment
    many times before and it was undisputed at trial that he had been
    9
    fingerprints, an unidentified set of prints was taken
    from the telephone. 
    Id. at 588.
    Missing from the
    apartment was an airline ticket that Hill had collected
    from her travel agent on the afternoon of Friday, March
    27.
    After learning from Randall and David that Hill
    had recently broken up with Rivas, police officers went
    to Rivas’s house in Cazenovia, a town about twenty
    miles southeast of Syracuse. 
    Id. at 235.
    Rivas agreed to
    accompany the officers to the Syracuse police station.
    Sergeant John D. Brennan later testified that Rivas
    appeared nervous,3 but was cooperative and did not
    inquire as to why he was being questioned. 
    Id. at 237–
    28. At the police station, Rivas was taken to an
    interrogation room where police proceeded to question
    him for approximately twelve hours. Despite the fact
    that he was interrogated at length regarding his
    activities the weekend of Hill’s death, Rivas was never
    informed of his Miranda rights because, the police
    officers later insisted, he was not regarded as a suspect
    at that time. Trial Tr. at 239. At approximately 5:30 p.m.,
    after over two hours of questioning, police informed
    Rivas that Hill had been killed. According to Brennan,
    in her apartment as recently as Thursday, March 26, 1987. 
    Id. at 240.
           3 However, another officer who interviewed Rivas that
    day, Frank Pieklik, testified at a pretrial motions hearing that
    Rivas ‚appeared, as I recall, quite normal.‛ Transcript of Feb. 24,
    1993, Hearing (‚Pretrial Hearing Tr.‛) at 30 (Feb. 24, 1993).
    10
    Rivas exhibited no discernible reaction upon hearing
    this news. 
    Id. at 247.
    During the interview, Rivas told the police that he
    had last seen Hill four days earlier, on the evening of
    Thursday, March 26, 1987, when he had gone to her
    house and talked to her for half an hour. 
    Id. at 240.
    He
    had also driven by Hill’s apartment at 2:00 p.m. the
    following day, Friday, March 27, and again
    approximately four hours later, at 6:00 p.m. He claimed
    he did not linger on either occasion after discovering
    that Hill was not home. 
    Id. at 240–41.
    Rivas said that he
    had spent most of Friday evening with friends at
    various bars in Syracuse and Cazenovia. See Trial Exh.
    1. He stated that he was at Coleman’s Bar (‚Coleman’s‛)
    in Syracuse from about 6:00 to 11:00 p.m. He then went
    to Albert’s Bar (‚Albert’s‛) in Cazenovia and stayed
    there until 2:00 a.m., before returning to Syracuse to get
    breakfast at an all-night diner. He finally went home
    and fell asleep at 4:00 a.m. Rivas claimed that he awoke
    at 11:30 a.m. on Saturday and returned to Albert’s to do
    some plumbing work. He remained for lunch and then
    went home to take care of some yard work. He then
    returned to Albert’s to watch Syracuse compete in the
    ‚Final Four‛ of the NCAA Men’s Basketball
    Tournament. He remained at Albert’s until
    approximately 8:00 p.m., whereupon he went to a party
    at a friend’s house until 4 a.m. on Sunday, March 29,
    before returning home to bed. As Rivas stated in the
    interview, many people saw him and spoke with him
    on Saturday night. 
    Id. 11 While
    Rivas was being questioned at the station,
    other police officers put together an application for a
    warrant to search his residence. Attached to the
    application was an affidavit signed by Officer Timothy
    Phinney, attesting that there was probable cause to
    believe that several items would be found in Rivas’s
    home, including a key to Hill’s apartment and clothing
    soiled with blood, fecal matter, or other contaminants.
    See Motion to Vacate Sentence Pursuant to Criminal
    Procedure Law 440.10 (‚Section 440.10 Mot.‛) Exhs. 1 &
    2. The affidavit also stated that the Onondaga County
    Medical Examiner, Dr. Erik Mitchell, had preliminarily
    estimated the time of Hill’s death to be ‚sometime
    [between] [S]aturday the 28th of March afternoon and
    *S+unday morning *the+ 29th of March 1987.‛ 
    Id. Exh. 2.4
    4   Contemporaneous newspaper articles also reported that
    Mitchell had estimated the time of death to have been sometime
    late Saturday night, March 28, to early Sunday morning, March
    29. See, e.g., Mike McAndrew, ‚As Wife Lay Dying, Man Found
    His Daughter Slain,‛ The Syracuse Post–Standard, Apr. 1, 1987, at
    A1 (‚Onondaga County Medical Examiner Erik Mitchell has
    determined that Hill was strangled late Saturday or early Sunday,
    Deputy Police Chief Robert Galvin said.‛); John Doherty, ‚Police
    Have No Clues into Slaying of Nurse,‛ The Syracuse Post–Standard,
    Apr. 1, 1987, at B3 (‚An autopsy has determined that Valerie J.
    Hill . . . was strangled to death with the cloth belt of her bathrobe,
    police said. The report also indicated that she died sometime
    Saturday or early Sunday morning, police said.‛).
    We take judicial notice of ‚the fact that press coverage
    contained certain information, without regard to the truth of [its]
    contents.‛ Staehr v. Hartford Fin. Servs. Grp., 
    547 F.3d 406
    , 425 (2d
    Cir. 2008).
    12
    In the basement of Rivas’s house, investigators
    discovered a damp jacket draped over a clothesline.
    Trial Tr. [at] 274–75. Although a search of household
    trash was not expressly contemplated by the warrant,
    investigators also seized and reconstructed a torn-up
    note, which they found in a trash bag in Rivas’s
    kitchen.5 The note was from Hill to another former
    boyfriend, Bob Lucas, expressing her thanks for their
    time together. See Trial Exh. 5.6 Finally, inside a
    bedroom closet, investigators observed what they
    described as a ‚shrine,‛ consisting of a large statue of
    the Virgin Mary surrounded by two small candles and a
    photograph of Hill. Trial Tr. at 270–74, 316. Although
    photographs were taken of the trash bag that contained
    the note, as well as other items in Rivas’s house, no
    photograph was taken of the ‚shrine.‛ See 
    id. 5 Rivas
    later argued that the note had been recovered from
    Hill’s apartment and not his. See Mem. Supp. § 440.10 Mot. at 34.
    6 The note was admitted at trial over Rivas’s objection. On
    direct appeal, the Appellate Division of the New York Supreme
    Court held that the note should have been suppressed because it
    was not within the scope of the warrant and did not fall under the
    ‚plain view‛ exception, but that its improper admission at trial
    constituted harmless error. See People v. Rivas, 
    214 A.D.2d 996
    , 
    626 N.Y.S.2d 640
    , 641 (4th Dep’t 1995). [In our prior opinion, we
    explained that, because] in reviewing a claim of actual innocence
    we consider ‚all the evidence ... without regard to whether it
    would necessarily be admitted under rules of admissibility that
    would govern at trial,‛ 
    House, 547 U.S. at 538
    , 
    126 S. Ct. 2064
    (internal quotation marks omitted), we need not ignore the
    contents of the note.
    13
    Despite a thorough investigation, neither Rivas
    nor anyone else was charged with, or even publicly
    identified as a suspect in, Hill’s murder, which
    remained a ‚cold case‛ for five years.
    B.    The Indictment of Hector Rivas
    In January 1992, William J. Fitzpatrick was sworn
    in as District Attorney of Onondaga County, having
    previously served in that office as an Assistant District
    Attorney. According to his biography on the Onondaga
    County District Attorney’s website, when he was Chief
    Assistant District Attorney, ‚Fitzpatrick specialized in
    re-opening cases that had previously been considered
    inactive and, with the cooperation of various police
    agencies in Onondaga County and the state of New
    York, he brought numerous killers to justice in cases
    that were thought to be un-winnable.‛ See ‚Meet the
    DA,‛ Office of the Onondaga District Attorney,
    www.ongovda.net/section/meet_the_da/ (last visited
    May 30, 2012).
    On November 22, 1992, nearly six years after the
    murder of Valerie Hill, a grand jury indicted Rivas on
    charges of murder in the second degree and aggravated
    sexual abuse. It is not clear what, if any, new evidence
    might have come to light that would lead authorities to
    pursue, and the grand jury to indict, Rivas nearly six
    years after the murder. In its Bill of Particulars,
    responding to a defense request for the date when Rivas
    was first identified as a possible perpetrator of the
    crime, the prosecution stated, simply: ‚It is very
    difficult to respond to this request. Defendant was
    14
    indicted in November 1992.‛ See Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01–
    cv–1891, (N.D.N.Y. Sept. 18, 2009), ECF No. 55–2 at 56
    (Answering Affidavit).
    Rivas contends that, sometime after becoming
    District Attorney, Fitzpatrick approached Mitchell, the
    medical examiner, and requested that he review Hill’s
    autopsy report with an eye toward expanding the time
    of death to include Friday, March 27, 1987, when
    Rivas’s alibi was not as strong. According to Rivas, at
    the time this alleged request was made, Mitchell ‚was
    under criminal investigation by DA Fitzpatrick’s office,
    as well as by the Department of Health and the
    Department of Environmental Conservation‛ for
    varieties of misconduct, including improper disposal of
    waste and stealing and mishandling of body parts.
    Appellant’s Br. at 8.
    The State concedes that Mitchell was accused of
    various forms of misconduct as early as 1989, see
    Appellee’s Br. at 24, and does not dispute that he was
    under investigation by the State Department of Health
    at the time he testified against Rivas. It is also
    undisputed that Mitchell resigned in November 1993, in
    part to avoid prosecution by the District Attorney’s
    Office. See Remand Hearing Tr.[, dated Sept. 21 & 22,
    2009,] at 205.7 It is not clear from the record, however, at
    7 Mitchell’s decision to resign was widely reported in the
    local newspapers. See, e.g., John O’Brien & Todd Lightly, ‚DA:
    Mitchell ‘Went Too Far’: Medical Examiner, Accused of
    Mishandling Body Parts, Quits Under Pressure,‛ The Syracuse
    Post–Standard, Nov. 20, 1993, at A1 (‚Thursday, Fitzpatrick told
    15
    what point the District Attorney’s Office opened its
    criminal investigation into Mitchell’s conduct.8 Though
    Rivas’s state post-conviction attorneys submitted
    requests under New York’s Freedom of Information
    Law      requesting    information      regarding    the
    investigation, the County provided only one page (a
    press release) in response, maintaining that other
    materials were non-final agency records and attorney
    work product. See Remand Hearing Tr.[, dated Sept. 21
    & 22, 2009,] at 208. Rivas’s attorneys also persuaded a
    Mitchell’s lawyer that if Mitchell resigned, the criminal
    investigation would end.‛). In the separate investigation by the
    State Department of Health, Mitchell was later cleared of
    wrongdoing. See Jim O’Hara, ‚Ex–Medical Examiner Cleared of
    Wrongdoing: Mitchell was Accused of Improperly Harvesting
    Body Parts,‛ Syracuse Post–Standard, Nov. 16, 1995, at B1.
    8  The investigation was triggered when two subordinates
    publicly accused Mitchell of misconduct. These self-styled
    ‚whistleblowers‛ submitted statements that were included in the
    record of Rivas’s initial appeal to this Court. One subordinate
    claimed to have witnessed Mitchell ‚slant the interpretation of
    evidence and/or exclude evidence to serve his predetermined
    objectives,‛ and averred that ‚Dr. Mitchell’s opinions and
    interpretations of evidence cannot be trusted as impartial or
    accurate.‛ Aff. of William R. Sawyer at 5–7 (quoted in Joint App’x
    at 337 n.7). Another—who was himself fired at the same time
    Mitchell resigned, and later had his medical license revoked for
    persistent drug and alcohol abuse—claimed that Mitchell had
    instructed him to fashion his autopsy reports in a way that would
    allow for manipulation of the case findings and had remarked that
    ‚the medical examiners worked for Onondaga County and were
    there to serve the needs of the District Attorney’s Office.‛ Letter of
    David A. Rigle at 16 (quoted in Joint App’x at 337 n.7).
    16
    state Supreme Court justice to conduct an in camera
    review of the County’s investigation of Mitchell in 1998,
    but the judge determined that the documents would not
    be provided to Rivas.9
    In any case, whether it was out of an ‚eager*ness+
    to please the prosecutor,‛ Appellant’s Br. at 5, as Rivas
    suggests, or based upon an independent reevaluation of
    the medical record, it does appear that sometime in
    1992, Mitchell reconsidered his estimate of the time of
    death. The grand jury’s indictment alleges that Rivas
    killed Hill ‚on or about‛ Friday, March 27, 1987. The
    State has identified no new evidence that came to light
    between March 1987 and November 1992 that led to the
    indictment.10 As far as the record reflects, therefore, the
    only thing that changed during that span of time was
    the medical examiner’s estimation of the time of death.
    9   The judge did, however, inform one of Rivas’s attorneys
    that Fitzpatrick was scheduled to attend a meeting with a
    legislative committee regarding allegations against Mitchell on
    April 13, 1993, just over two weeks after the conclusion of Rivas’s
    trial. See Remand Hearing Tr.[, dated Sept. 21 & 22, 2009,] 117–19.
    10  It appears that the only new evidence prosecutors
    employed at Rivas’s trial was the testimony of a former friend,
    who stated that Rivas made an incriminating statement to the
    effect that he ‚didn’t mean to do it‛ shortly after Hill’s death. See
    Trial Tr. at 816–17. However, prosecutors evidently did not learn
    of this alleged statement until after the indictment was returned,
    when the witness’s girlfriend came forward. See 
    id. at 828–29.
    17
    C.     The Trial of Hector Rivas
    Rivas was tried before a jury in March 1993, with
    now-deceased Onondaga County Court Judge J. Kevin
    Mulroy presiding. He was represented by Richard J.
    Calle, an attorney then practicing in Queens, New York.
    Rivas, who had moved downstate, hired Calle because
    Calle happened to be representing him in a civil
    arbitration matter in the fall of 1992, around the time the
    District Attorney’s Office renewed its investigation of
    him in connection with Hill’s murder. See Section 440.10
    Hearing Tr. at 11. Calle did not work out of a formal
    business office and, on the occasions that he met with
    Rivas prior to Rivas’s incarceration, those meetings
    were typically held in Rivas’s sister’s apartment or at a
    local diner.11
    1.      The People’s Direct Case
    The People’s case was almost entirely
    circumstantial.12 District Attorney Fitzpatrick, who tried
    the case himself, presented Rivas as an obsessive, jilted
    11Calle was later indicted and convicted on federal charges
    of obstruction of justice and mail fraud unrelated to his
    representation of Rivas. He was disbarred from the practice of law
    in New York State nine years after Rivas’s trial. See In re Calle, 
    301 A.D.2d 218
    , 
    749 N.Y.S.2d 528
    (1st Dep’t 2002).
    12Several of Rivas’s fingerprints had been found on items
    in Hill’s house, including a bottle of wine. However, the
    prosecution acknowledged at trial that Rivas had been in the
    apartment many times before, including in the week prior to Hill’s
    death.
    18
    lover who harassed Hill following their breakup and
    was pushed over the edge when he learned that Hill
    was planning to take a trip to the Bahamas alone. Trial
    Tr. at 1127–28. As Fitzpatrick summarized: ‚Hector
    Rivas stalked this woman [for] two and a half months,
    and finally strangled her and killed her in a jealous rage
    on March the 27th of 1987.‛ 
    Id. at 1069.
    Trial testimony and exhibits supported at least
    part of this theory. Friends of Hill testified that Rivas
    persisted in contacting Hill on a regular basis, even after
    she had made clear that she did not want to continue or
    revive their relationship. In addition, the prosecution
    introduced dozens of notes, cards, and letters that Rivas
    had written to Hill in the months between their breakup
    and her death. See 
    id. at 1092–97.
    Police investigators
    also testified regarding Rivas’s strange behavior when
    he was first questioned, including his lack of reaction
    when he was told that Hill had died. 
    Id. at 247.
    Several witnesses testified regarding Rivas’s
    whereabouts on Friday, March 27, 1987, the alleged date
    of the murder. Taken together, the testimony of these
    witnesses suggested that there may have been a
    window of time during which Rivas could have gone to
    Hill’s house and strangled her while en route from
    Coleman’s in Syracuse to Albert’s in Cazenovia, about
    thirty minutes away. Prosecution witnesses testified
    that Rivas left Coleman’s at around 9:00 or 9:30 p.m.
    and did not arrive at Albert’s until sometime between
    11:00 p.m. and 12:30 a.m. 
    Id. at 461–63,
    439–40, 849. One
    witness, a clerk at a liquor store near Hill’s apartment,
    testified that he saw Rivas enter the store between 9:30
    19
    and 10:00 p.m. 
    Id. at 496–99.
    Two witnesses testified that
    they observed Rivas smoking a cigarette in his car,
    which was parked outside Hill’s house, sometime
    between 11:00 p.m. and 12:00 a.m. that night—around
    the time that the prosecution theorized Hill was
    murdered. 
    Id. at 533–34,
    936–37.13
    Beyond making the case that Rivas had motive
    and the opportunity to murder Hill on Friday night,
    Fitzpatrick deftly turned Rivas’s alibi for Saturday
    against him. Through witness testimony and in his
    opening and summation, Fitzpatrick suggested that
    Rivas had contrived to be seen by many people at all
    hours of the day Saturday and into Sunday morning, so
    that he would have an alibi in the event that police
    focused on Saturday evening as the time of death. See,
    e.g., 
    id. at 1084,
    1124. For example, Elizabeth Lewis, one
    of Hill’s friends, testified that Rivas sought her out at a
    party Saturday evening and remarked that ‚*i+t’s too
    bad Valerie’s not feeling well, that she can’t be here
    tonight.‛ 
    Id. at 780.
    The implication, according to the
    prosecution, was that Rivas wanted to plant the idea in
    Lewis’s mind that Hill was alive on Saturday evening,
    13 One of these witnesses, Hill’s upstairs neighbor, was in
    fact called by Rivas as a defense witness, apparently because she
    had initially told police that she had seen Hill in their shared
    basement on Saturday morning, March 28. However, under cross
    examination by Fitzpatrick, she readily conceded that she was
    mistaken in her initial statement to police and had in fact seen Hill
    on Friday morning, March 27. Trial Tr. 928–29, 932.
    20
    knowing that he was at that very moment cementing
    his alibi. See 
    id. at 1124.14
    Similarly, Fitzpatrick emphasized a seemingly
    exculpatory item of evidence: a Stephen King novel that
    Hill had checked out from the Cazenovia Public
    Library, and which a witness had seen in the back seat
    of Hill’s car on Friday afternoon. See 
    id. at 190–91.
    The
    book was returned to the library’s drop box sometime
    between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning,
    suggesting that Hill (the most likely person to have
    returned it) was alive at least as late as Saturday
    afternoon. But Fitzpatrick theorized that it was Rivas
    who returned the book, hoping that it would cause
    investigators to believe that Hill was not killed on
    Friday night, when his alibi was relatively weaker. 
    Id. at 54–55,
    1085.15
    14 Lewis did not testify that Rivas claimed to have spoken
    to Hill on Saturday. However, it was her sense, six years later, that
    he was trying to convey the impression that he had. This
    purported plan backfired, because Lewis—unlike Rivas—knew
    that Hill was planning to be out of town that weekend. Rivas’s
    comment therefore struck her as odd. Trial Tr. [at] 780.
    15 As Rivas pointed out in his state collateral motion,
    however, Hill had requested the book through an interlibrary loan
    and all of the markings on the book indicated it was from a
    different library, in Utica. Thus, Rivas (belatedly) argued, only
    Hill would have known to return it to Cazenovia library and not
    the original library. Furthermore, although the prosecution’s
    fingerprint expert examined the book and found three prints that
    he could not identify, he apparently did not recover any of Rivas’s
    prints from the book. See Trial Tr. at 588.
    21
    Finally, [Fitzpatrick] elicited testimony from Joe
    Fields, an acquaintance of Rivas, who encountered him
    at Albert’s bar approximately three weeks after the
    murder. Rivas had been drinking heavily and was
    crying over Hill’s death. According to Fields, at a
    moment when Rivas did not know that Fields was in
    earshot, he said to himself, ‚Valerie, Valerie, I didn’t
    mean to do it.‛ 
    Id. at 817–18.
    2.     The Medical Examiner’s Testimony
    No matter how much circumstantial evidence the
    prosecution could amass tending to link Rivas to the
    crime, however, it had no case unless it could prove that
    Hill died on Friday night. Fitzpatrick himself
    acknowledged that Rivas’s alibi was ‚complete—for
    Saturday night.‛ 
    Id. at 55.
    Indeed, it was the People’s
    position that Rivas’s alibi was so strong on Saturday
    night precisely because he had concocted it, having
    murdered Hill the night before. Therefore, the
    prosecution’s case rested almost entirely on the
    testimony of Mitchell, the medical examiner, to
    persuade the jury that Hill died on Friday night and not
    on Saturday as Mitchell had initially determined.
    Mitchell testified that, when he first observed
    Hill’s body on the afternoon of Monday, March 30, it
    ‚was in rigor,‛ and that by the time he performed an
    autopsy later that day, ‚*s+he was coming out of rigor.‛
    
    Id. at 869,
    872.16 He cautioned that no medical examiner
    16In the ‚scene investigation‛ report that Mitchell
    prepared and signed at the time of his initial inquiry into the
    22
    can pinpoint with certainty the time of a person’s death,
    
    id. at 886,
    but stated that, based on his observations of
    the body, there was nothing inconsistent with Hill
    having died on either the night of Saturday, March 28,
    or Friday, March 27. 
    Id. at 888.
    However, taking into
    account a number of external factors—namely, that
    Hill’s cat was seen outside on Saturday morning; that
    Hill had not been seen after Friday; that she never
    contacted the friend whom she intended to visit that
    weekend; that her car had apparently not been driven
    since Friday; and that she had not been in touch with
    her father despite the fact that his wife was gravely ill—
    Mitchell opined that ‚it’s more likely that she died
    Friday night, to possibly very early Saturday morning‛
    than on Saturday night. Trial Tr. [at] 889–90. He also
    stated his opinion ‚within a reasonable degree of
    medical certainty‛ that Hill died as a result of being
    strangled. 
    Id. at 891.17
    Confronted      on     cross-examination     with
    contemporaneous newspaper accounts that reported on
    his preliminary findings, Mitchell admitted that he
    ‚*q+uite possibly‛ had estimated at some point that Hill
    died late on Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
    cause and time of Hill’s death, he reported that he had found
    Hill’s body in ‚full rigor, with fixed anterior livor.‛ See Remand
    Hearing Tr. [at] 75–76[, dated Sept. 21 & 22, 2009] (emphasis
    added).
    17 Whether by design or oversight, Mitchell did not testify
    that his opinion on Hill’s time of death was ‚within a reasonable
    degree of medical certainty.‛ Trial Tr. at 891.
    23
    
    Id. at 895–96.18
    Mitchell also conceded that, when he
    testified before the grand jury in November 1992, he
    had stated that it was merely ‚on the outside edge of * +
    possibility‛ that Hill could have been murdered on
    Friday night. 
    Id. at 907.
    At trial, however, he insisted
    that he had never ‚tied *himself+‛ to a Saturday night
    estimate. 
    Id. at 895.
    He stressed that the onset and
    relaxation of rigor mortis was highly variable and could
    be slowed, for example, by cold temperatures. 
    Id. at 905–06.
    Although Mitchell thus acknowledged that in
    most cases rigor mortis relaxes within twenty-four to
    forty-eight hours (which would put Hill’s time of death
    somewhere between Saturday and Sunday afternoon),
    he suggested that the cool temperatures in Hill’s
    apartment could have retarded the process.
    On redirect examination, Mitchell explained that,
    when he testified before the grand jury several months
    earlier, he had not reviewed ‚some of *his+ notes and
    slides.‛ 
    Id. at 915.
    Having had the opportunity to review
    the ‚slides‛ before trial, he noticed in them ‚some
    18 Although Calle attempted to impeach Mitchell with
    newspaper articles suggesting that Mitchell had initially estimated
    the time of death to be [Saturday] night, he did not refer to the
    police affidavit supporting the application to search Rivas’s
    residence, which stated that Mitchell had preliminarily estimated
    the time of Hill’s death to be ‚sometime *between+ *S+aturday the
    28th of March afternoon and [S]unday morning [the] 29th of
    March 1987,‛ Section 440.10 Mot. Exh. 2. See Section 440.10
    Hearing Tr. at 98.
    24
    decomposition to the brain.‛ 
    Id. This, he
    stated, ‚tends
    to push the [time+ limits further out.‛ Id.19
    3.      Belated Disclosure of Exculpatory Evidence
    At the close of the People’s case, Fitzpatrick
    disclosed the existence of an August 1988 affidavit from
    one Joe Morgan, in which Morgan attested that an
    individual named Patsy Barricella had admitted to
    Morgan that he (Barricella) murdered Hill. Trial Tr. at
    19  Rivas contends that Mitchell committed perjury when he
    testified that he had examined ‚brain slides,‛ because the medical
    examiner’s file did not, in fact, contain any such slides. The state
    concedes that there were no ‚brain slides‛—that is, sectional
    slides containing actual brain tissue. It argues, however, that there
    were in fact two photographic slides containing images of Hill’s
    brain, and that Mitchell may have been referring to those slides in
    his testimony.
    We need not, and therefore do not, address Rivas’s
    allegation that Mitchell committed perjury. We note, however,
    that Fitzpatrick specifically characterized the slides in question as
    ‚autopsy sectional slides‛ in his closing argument. Trial Tr. at
    1082–83. Furthermore, Rivas’s expert, Dr. Cyril Wecht, has
    testified [at the federal evidentiary hearing before the District
    Court in 2009] that a forensic pathologist would ‚not use the word
    slide synonymously with a photograph.‛ Remand Hearing Tr.[,
    dated Sept. 21 & 22, 2009,] at 27. In any case, Wecht has also
    testified [before the state collateral review court in 1999] that, even
    if Mitchell had examined ‚brain slides‛ (that is, sectional slides),
    such a review is ‚totally unreliable‛ as a means of determining the
    time of death, because the sections of the brain contained in such
    slides continue to decompose for up to ten days after the brain is
    placed in a formalin bath for preservation. See Aff. of Cyril H.
    Wecht[, dated June 11, 1999,] Supp. Section 440.10 Mot. at 6.
    25
    947–48.20 Recognizing that this evidence was
    ‚exculpatory without a doubt,‛ 
    id. at 984,
    the trial judge
    allowed Calle, Rivas’s attorney, to decide whether to
    adjourn and attempt to call Morgan or Barricella as
    witnesses, or instead to bring out the information
    contained in the affidavits by examining the Syracuse
    police officer who had interviewed Morgan. Calle opted
    to draw the information out of the police officer,
    Michael Ostuni. 
    Id. at 987.
    According to [Officer]
    Ostuni, Morgan claimed that he had a conversation
    with his friend and neighbor Barricella in March 1988,
    at which time Barricella confessed to killing ‚the girl on
    Hickok Avenue.‛ Section 440.10 Mot. Exh. 8. In
    addition, Barricella had, according to Morgan, driven
    by the crime scene several times as police were
    investigating Hill’s murder and was stopped by police
    as a result. (Indeed, a contemporaneous police report
    revealed that Barricella was stopped by police after
    driving by the crime scene repeatedly. See Section
    440.10 Mot. Exhs. 9 & 10.) However, on cross-
    examination by the District Attorney, Ostuni also
    testified that Morgan was a con artist and career
    criminal who had contacted the police from a county jail
    cell, demanding release as a quid pro quo for
    cooperation. Trial Tr. at 998–1000. Ostuni further
    20 Though it is unclear when Fitzpatrick first became aware
    of or obtained Morgan’s affidavit itself, the trial transcript
    suggests that he was in possession of at least some documents
    relating to Morgan before opening statements were made, and
    thus well before this information was turned over to the defense.
    See Trial Tr. at 65.
    26
    testified that Barricella was known to be ‚mildly
    mentally retarded.‛ 
    Id. at 1001.
    4.    Rivas’s Direct Case
    Beyond the testimony of Ostuni, Rivas’s direct
    case was underwhelming. As Calle later testified, he did
    not appreciate at trial that the precise time of Hill’s
    death was important because he felt that Rivas had a
    strong alibi throughout the entire weekend. He
    therefore never considered calling an expert forensic
    pathologist to challenge Mitchell’s adjusted findings.
    See Section 440.10 Hearing Tr. at 85, 87. He did attempt
    to establish that Hill was alive on Saturday by calling a
    prosecution witness, Hill’s upstairs neighbor, to read
    from an affidavit in which she had stated that she had
    seen Hill in their shared basement that morning.
    However, on cross-examination by Fitzpatrick, the
    witness readily conceded that she had been mistaken in
    her affidavit and had in fact seen Hill on Friday
    morning, not the following day. See Trial Tr. at 927–932.
    Calle also attempted to establish Rivas’s alibi by calling
    a single witness who claimed to have seen Rivas at
    Albert’s in Cazenovia as early as 7:30 p.m. on Friday. 
    Id. at 967.
    Finally, he called a witness who testified that
    Rivas was acting normally on Saturday night. 
    Id. at 974.
    Rivas did not testify in his own defense, and claims that
    Calle never informed him of his right to do so. Section
    440.10 Hearing Tr. at 17–18.
    5.    Summations
    In his closing argument, Calle argued that the
    Hill murder had been solved backwards: The police and
    27
    the District Attorney’s Office had decided at the outset
    that Rivas was the killer and then set out to find, or
    fabricate, the proof of the murder from there, ignoring
    other potential leads along the way. Trial Tr. at 1044.
    With respect to the time of death, Calle argued that
    Mitchell had to stretch science beyond the breaking
    point to opine at trial that it was more likely that Hill
    had been killed on Friday than on Saturday, when
    Mitchell had previously testified before the grand jury
    that a Friday time of death was only ‚on the outside
    limits of possibility.‛ 
    Id. at 1062.
    Calle did not explicitly
    challenge Mitchell’s credibility or suggest that he might
    be beholden to the District Attorney’s Office. Indeed,
    Rivas claims that neither he nor Calle were aware of the
    investigations into Mitchell’s conduct at the time of the
    trial, despite their widespread publicity in the weeks
    leading up to it, apparently because they both then
    lived downstate. See § 2254 Petition at iv; Remand
    Hearing Tr.[, dated Sept. 21 & 22, 2009,] at 271–72.
    Fitzpatrick, in       his    summation,       defended
    Mitchell’s estimates:
    [A]s [Dr. Mitchell] told the grand jury, rigor
    mortis, the stiffening of the body after
    death, normally begins to pass off within 24
    to 48 hours. If we were looking at a
    calendar, this would put the normal time of
    death or the normal median time of death
    sometime Saturday afternoon. Could it
    have been 16, 17, 18 hours earlier?
    Absolutely. Absolutely. Heating conditions
    refer, first of all, to 75 degrees. It wasn’t the
    28
    temperature of the house. The temperature
    of the house was 62 degrees. . . . Basement
    underneath her, cold floor. And the nights
    as you might expect, in March of 1987 were
    cold as well.
    Trial Tr. at 1082–83.21 Furthermore, Fitzpatrick argued,
    Mitchell had ‚had a chance to review autopsy sectional
    slides of the brain,‛ 
    id., which tended
    to expand the
    range of possible times of death. This review,
    Fitzpatrick claimed, combined with the external
    indications Mitchell had identified, had led Mitchell to
    opine that it was most likely that Hill died on Friday,
    March 27.
    21 In fact, the temperature of the apartment was never
    recorded and Hill was lying on a carpeted floor. The record also
    reveals that the week of Hill’s death was unusually warm. One
    witness told police that the last time she had seen Hill, Hill was
    sunbathing in her backyard. Section 440.10 Mot. Exh. 24. Another
    witness stated that she had her window open late Saturday night,
    when she heard a woman’s scream. 
    Id. Exh. 4.
            Parenthetically, we note that, according to the National
    Climatic Data Center, the mean temperature in Syracuse, NY, on
    March 27, 1987, was 51° Fahrenheit, with a high of 61° and a low
    of 40°. On March 28, the temperature ranged from 37–65° with a
    mean of 51°. And on Sunday, March 29, the day before Hill’s body
    was discovered, the high temperature was 74° and the low 36[°]
    with a mean of 55°. See Local Climatological Data, Monthly
    Summary for Syracuse, NY, March 1987, available at
    http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_finish=0.400803217
    488396 (last visited July 3, 2012).
    29
    Summarizing the evidence against Rivas,
    Fitzpatrick theorized that Rivas had paid Hill a visit on
    Friday night after he left Coleman’s bar, and had
    brought over a bottle of rum and a bottle of wine in
    hopes that the two could mend their relationship. When
    he discovered that Hill not only did not want to reunite
    with him, but was also planning a trip to the Bahamas
    alone, he flew into a rage and strangled her. Then,
    realizing he needed to cover up the crime, he got rid of
    the airline ticket (but left an ashtray full of his
    cigarettes), and, on the way to his car, took Hill’s library
    book from the back seat of her car, intending to return it
    the next day to make it appear as though Hill were still
    alive. He then crafted a tight alibi for the rest of the
    weekend. 
    Id. at 1125–30.
    The jury deliberated for eight hours over the
    course of one day, during which time it asked for
    further instructions on the meaning of ‚reasonable
    doubt.‛ 
    Id. at 1188.
    At approximately 10:45 p.m. on
    March 25, 1993, nearly six years to the day after Valerie
    Hill was killed, Hector Rivas was found guilty of
    second-degree murder. He was subsequently sentenced
    on May 12, 1993, to an indeterminate term of
    imprisonment of twenty-five years to life.
    D.    State Post–Conviction Proceedings
    Rivas, with the assistance of new counsel,
    appealed his conviction to the Appellate Division of the
    New York Supreme Court . . . . On April 28, 1995, the
    Appellate Division issued a decision unanimously
    affirming Rivas’s conviction. People v. Rivas, 
    214 A.D.2d 30
    996, 
    626 N.Y.S.2d 640
    (4th Dep’t 1995) . . . . Rivas’s
    application for leave to appeal to the New York Court
    of Appeals was denied on August 15, 1995. People v.
    Rivas, 
    86 N.Y.2d 801
    , 
    632 N.Y.S.2d 514
    , 
    656 N.E.2d 613
    (1995) (table).22
    Thereafter, with the assistance of yet another
    lawyer, Rivas filed a motion to vacate the judgment of
    conviction pursuant to N.Y. Criminal Procedure Law
    § 440.10, which provides the means of collateral attack
    on a criminal judgment in New York state courts. In
    that application, Rivas alleged that he had been the
    victim of a ‚concerted effort to convict that was severed
    from concerns over actual guilt very early on in this
    investigation and was orchestrated by the District
    Attorney himself, William J. Fitzpatrick, who personally
    prosecuted this case.‛ Affirmation of H. Mitchell
    Schuman in Support of Section 440.10 Mot. at 3.
    Principal among Rivas’s allegations was that
    Mitchell, the medical examiner, had altered his original
    estimate of the time of Hill’s death in order to satisfy the
    District Attorney in hopes of avoiding prosecution for
    alleged criminal misconduct. 
    Id. at 4–7.
    Rivas claimed
    not to have known about the investigation of Mitchell
    and his office until after the trial, when Mitchell was
    indeed forced to resign to avoid prosecution by
    22 Rivas also filed an application for a writ of error coram
    nobis, which was denied by the Appellate Division on September
    27, 1996. People v. Rivas, 
    231 A.D.2d 971
    , 
    647 N.Y.S.2d 648
    (4th
    Dep’t 1996) (Table).
    31
    Fitzpatrick’s office. 
    Id. at 6.
    Additionally, Rivas claimed
    to have discovered only after the trial that, despite
    Mitchell’s testimony that he had examined ‚slides‛ in
    coming to the conclusion that Hill most likely died on
    the night of Friday, March 27, 1987, and despite
    Fitzpatrick’s characterization of these slides in his
    summation as ‚autopsy sectional slides,‛ there were in
    fact no sectional slides of Hill’s brain in the medical
    examiner’s file. 
    Id. at 6–7.
    Rivas also pointed to ‚new evidence,‛ in the form
    of an affidavit by Dr. Cyril H. Wecht, an expert in
    forensic pathology, who attested that Mitchell’s
    calculations of the cause of death were ‚misguided,‛
    and that, in his expert opinion, ‚based upon a
    reasonable degree of medical certainty, . . . the length of
    time between the death of Valerie J. Hill and the time
    she was found was less than 48 hours, and more likely
    less than 36 hours.‛ Affirmation of Cyril H. Wecht in
    Support of Section 440.10 Mot. (emphasis in original). In
    other words, according to Wecht, Hill most likely died
    between 3:30 p.m. on Saturday, March 28, and 3:30 a.m.
    on Sunday, March 29.
    In addition, Rivas alleged that a significant
    amount of exculpatory material was withheld from the
    defense at trial. Most saliently for our purposes, Rivas
    claimed that he never received an affidavit taken from
    one of Hill’s neighbors, Mary Lazarski, and a police
    report memorializing an interview with another
    unnamed neighbor. In her affidavit, Lazarski attested
    that, late in the evening of March 28 or early in the
    morning of March 29, while she was watching
    32
    ‚Saturday Night Live‛ on television, she heard through
    her open window ‚a loud shriek or scream *that+
    seemed to cut off.‛ Section 440.10 Mot. Exh. 4. She
    stated that ‚*t+he voice was a woman’s voice and it
    sounded like someone was in trouble and not like
    anyone kidding around.‛ 
    Id. Lazarski’s husband
    also
    signed an affidavit confirming that his wife woke him
    up and told him about the incident that night. 
    Id. The unidentified
    neighbor told police that he heard a dog
    barking and a car speed away from the vicinity of Hill’s
    house at around 11:00 Saturday night. 
    Id. Beyond these
    documents, Rivas claimed that the
    prosecution failed to disclose: (1) a police report
    regarding an interview with a neighbor who had seen
    Hill intimately embracing a man other than Rivas a few
    days prior to her murder, and another interview stating
    that Hill had been involved in an intimate relationship
    with a man other than Rivas at the time of her death;
    (2) information that one of Hill’s neighbors had
    previously been arrested for burglary and was known
    to peer through windows in the neighborhood;23
    23 This neighbor appears to have been a member of the
    family [that] lived upstairs from Hill at 250 Hickok Avenue. The
    individual was interviewed by police in connection with Hill’s
    murder and admitted to having been arrested and charged in 1985
    with a burglary of 248 Hickok Avenue, the apartment later
    occupied by Hill. (He was ultimately convicted of petit larceny,
    according to the report.) When questioned about his whereabouts
    the weekend of Hill’s death, he mentioned having ‚pass*ed+ by
    his parents house at 250 Hickok Avenue.‛ Section 440.10 Mot.
    Exh. 18. Although it appears that the individual had an alibi for
    33
    (3) information that an employee at the hospital where
    Hill worked had been disciplined after Hill made a
    complaint against him; (4) information regarding a
    purported ‚sexual deviant‛ who was residing in Hill’s
    neighborhood; (5) the fact that one of the prosecution
    witnesses had a prior conviction; and (6) the affidavit
    stating that Patsy Barricella, not Rivas, had committed
    the crime. Section 440.10 Mot. at 7–10.
    Finally, Rivas raised a claim of ineffective
    assistance of counsel, alleging that his trial attorney,
    Calle, had failed to apprise him of his right to testify in
    his own defense, and had failed to ‚investigate or
    challenge the false and misleading testimony given by
    the medical examiner at trial.‛ Mem. Law. Supp. Section
    440.10 Mot. at 34–40.
    On April 7, 2000, Acting Onondaga County
    Supreme Court Justice John J. Brunetti conducted an
    evidentiary hearing in connection with Rivas’s § 440.10
    motion. At the close of the hearing, Justice Brunetti
    issued an oral ruling denying relief with respect to
    Rivas’s Brady claims and one portion of his ineffective-
    assistance claim, finding that Rivas had not borne his
    burden of persuasion on those points. See Section 440.10
    Tr. at 135–41. After taking the remaining issues under
    the relevant time period, the very fact that he was questioned by
    police and had previously been arrested for suspicious criminal
    activity involving Hill’s apartment, if disclosed to the defense,
    would likely have provided grounds for challenging the
    credibility of his family members, who testified against Rivas.
    34
    advisement and receiving post-hearing briefs from the
    parties, Justice Brunetti issued a written decision on
    September 8, 2000, denying relief on the remaining
    claims. See People v. Rivas, No. 92–2794 (N.Y. Sup. Ct.
    Sept. 8, 2000).
    [END OF QUOTED PASSAGES FROM OUR 2012
    OPINION]
    
    Rivas, 687 F.3d at 518
    –30.
    E.     Federal Habeas Proceedings
    On June 19, 2002, Rivas filed an amended petition for a writ of
    habeas corpus pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2254, raising substantially the
    same claims that he advanced in his § 440.10 motion. 24 The District
    Court dismissed Rivas’s petition as time-barred under 28 U.S.C.
    § 2254(d), see Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891, ECF No. 21 (N.D.N.Y.
    Jan. 28, 2005), and we vacated and remanded, holding that
    additional fact-finding on the issues of timeliness and actual
    innocence was required, see Rivas v. Fischer, 294 F. App’x 677, 678–79
    (2d Cir. 2008).
    After an evidentiary hearing, the District Court again
    dismissed the petition as untimely. See Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-
    24 In addition to his ineffective-assistance claim, Rivas re-raised his
    various claims under Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
    (1963), People v. Sandoval, 
    34 N.Y.2d 371
    (1974), and the Due Process Clause. Because we grant Rivas’s petition
    on the basis of his ineffective-assistance claim, we need not address these other
    claims.
    35
    1891 (GLS/DEP), 
    2010 WL 1257935
    (N.D.N.Y. Mar. 26, 2010). We
    reversed, holding as a matter of first impression in this Circuit that a
    ‚credible‛ and ‚compelling‛ showing of actual innocence warrants
    an equitable exception to AEDPA’s limitation period, allowing a
    petitioner to have his otherwise time-barred claims heard by a
    federal court. Rivas v. Fischer, 
    687 F.3d 514
    , 517–18 (2d Cir. 2012).25
    We concluded that Rivas had made such a showing, having
    produced essentially unchallenged expert testimony ‚which call*ed+
    into serious doubt the central forensic evidence linking him to the
    crime,‛ and, as a result, ‚a reasonable juror, apprised of all the
    evidence in the record, would more likely than not vote to acquit.‛
    
    Id. at 552.
    We remanded the cause for Rivas’s petition to be heard on
    the merits.
    After hearing oral argument, the District Court nonetheless
    denied the petition on the merits. See Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891
    (GLS), 
    2013 WL 4026844
    (N.D.N.Y. Aug. 6, 2013). With respect to
    Rivas’s ineffective-assistance claim, the District Court held that the
    state court’s determination ‚was comprised of both reasonable
    factual determinations and a reasonable application of Strickland.‛
    
    Id. at *22.
    The District Court reasoned that defense counsel’s decision
    to rely on Rivas’s incomplete alibi was sound trial strategy because
    25  The Supreme Court subsequently confirmed in McQuiggin v. Perkins,
    
    133 S. Ct. 1924
    , 1928 (2013), that ‚actual innocence, if proved, serves as a gateway
    through which a petitioner may pass whether the impediment is a procedural
    bar . . . or . . . expiration of the statute of limitations.‛ See 
    id. at 1931
    (citing 
    Rivas, 687 F.3d at 547
    –48).
    36
    ‚*e+ven if Rivas employed an expert who reached the same
    conclusions as Dr. Wecht . . . the time of death would simply be
    limited to sometime between 3:30 P.M. on Saturday and 11:30 A.M.
    on Monday,‛ and ‚Rivas was, by his own account, alone during a
    large portion of Sunday, beginning at 4:00 A.M.‛ 
    Id. at *33.
    With
    respect to prejudice, the District Court held that ‚*a+s discrediting
    Dr. Mitchell would not narrow the time of death to a period during
    which Rivas could not have committed the murder, so too would it
    fail to alleviate the considerable circumstantial evidence suggesting
    his involvement in Valerie’s death.‛ 
    Id. at *34.
    This appeal followed.
    DISCUSSION
    We review a district court’s denial of a petition for a writ of
    habeas corpus de novo, Alvarez v. Ercole, 
    763 F.3d 223
    , 229 (2d Cir.
    2014), and we review the underlying state court’s denial under 28
    U.S.C. § 2254(d) for an ‚’objectively unreasonable’‛ application of
    clearly established federal law, Wiggins v. Smith, 
    539 U.S. 510
    , 521
    (2003) (quoting Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 409 (2000)).26
    Section 2254(d), as amended by the Antiterrorism and
    Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (‚AEDPA‛), provides ‚*t+he
    statutory authority of federal courts to issue habeas corpus relief for
    26See Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 101–02 (2011) (distinguishing
    between de novo review and review for objective unreasonableness).
    37
    persons in state custody.‛ 
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 97
    . Section 2254(d)
    provides:
    (d) An application for a writ of habeas
    corpus on behalf of a person in custody
    pursuant to the judgment of a State court
    shall not be granted with respect to any
    claim that was adjudicated on the merits in
    State court proceedings unless the
    adjudication of the claim—
    (1) resulted in a decision that was contrary
    to, or involved an unreasonable application
    of, clearly established Federal law, as
    determined by the Supreme Court of the
    United States; or
    (2) resulted in a decision that was based on
    an unreasonable determination of the facts
    in light of the evidence presented in the
    State court proceeding.
    28 U.S.C. § 2254(d).
    Rivas contends that the state court’s denial of his ineffective-
    assistance claim involved an ‚unreasonable application‛ of
    Strickland under Section 2254(d)(1).27 The Supreme Court has
    explained that an ‚unreasonable application‛ is one that is ‚more
    27 There is no dispute that Strickland constitutes ‚clearly established
    Federal law.‛ Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    131 S. Ct. 1388
    , 1403 (2011).
    38
    than incorrect or erroneous‚; it must be ‚objectively unreasonable.‛
    
    Wiggins, 539 U.S. at 520
    –21 (internal quotation marks omitted). In
    other words, the state court’s decision must be ‚so lacking in
    justification that there was an error well understood and
    comprehended in        existing   law beyond     any   possibility for
    fairminded disagreement.‛ 
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 103
    .
    Strickland has two components:
    First, the defendant must show that
    counsel’s performance was deficient. This
    requires showing that counsel made errors
    so serious that counsel was not functioning
    as the ‘counsel’ guaranteed the defendant
    by the Sixth Amendment. Second, the
    defendant must show that the deficient
    performance prejudiced the defense. This
    requires showing that counsel’s errors were
    so serious as to deprive the defendant of a
    fair trial, a trial whose result is 
    reliable. 466 U.S. at 687
    . Where, as here, a petitioner’s claim stems from a
    ‚strategic choice*+ made after less than complete investigation,‛ such
    a choice is reasonable ‚precisely to the extent that reasonable
    professional judgments support the limitations on investigation.‛ 
    Id. at 690–91.
    ‚In other words, counsel has a duty to make reasonable
    investigations or to make a reasonable decision that makes
    particular investigations unnecessary.‛ 
    Id. at 691.
    In   assessing    whether     counsel   exercised      ‚reasonable
    professional judgment,‛ our ‚principal concern . . . is not whether
    39
    counsel should have presented‛ the additional evidence that further
    investigation would have revealed, but rather, ‚whether the
    investigation supporting counsel’s decision not to introduce‛ the
    additional evidence ‚was itself reasonable.‛ 
    Wiggins, 539 U.S. at 522
    –
    23. In doing so, we look to ‚not only the quantum of evidence
    already known to counsel, but also whether the known evidence
    would lead a reasonable attorney to investigate further.‛ 
    Id. at 527.
    Finally, our scrutiny of counsel’s performance must be
    ‚highly deferential‛ because we must apply ‚a strong presumption
    that counsel’s conduct falls within the wide range of reasonable
    professional assistance.‛ 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 689
    . Similarly, under
    Section 2254(d), ‚the range of reasonable applications is substantial,‛
    so when Strickland and Section 2254(d) apply in tandem our review
    must be ‚doubly‛ deferential. 
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 105
    (internal
    quotation marks omitted). Therefore, the relevant question ‚is not
    whether counsel’s actions were reasonable,‛ but instead ‚whether
    there is any reasonable argument that counsel satisfied Strickland’s
    deferential standard.‛ 
    Id. at 102.
    Our analysis must ‚determine what
    arguments or theories supported . . . the state court’s decision; and
    then [we] must ask whether it is possible fairminded jurists could
    disagree that those arguments or theories are inconsistent‛ with
    Strickland. 
    Id. A. Rivas
    contends that his trial counsel, Calle, was ineffective
    because he did not investigate further into the basis of Mitchell’s
    40
    revised findings as to the time of Hill’s death. Rivas argues that
    Calle should have, among other things: (1) consulted with or
    retained a competing forensic pathologist, who would have found
    that   the   revised   findings   were    not    scientifically   reliable;
    (2) researched Mitchell’s qualifications and background, which
    would have revealed that he had been accused of, and was under
    pending investigation for, various forms of misconduct at the time
    of trial; (3) reviewed the documents relied upon by Mitchell, which
    would have revealed that he based his revised opinion in part on
    nonexistent ‚brain slides‛; and (4) used as impeachment evidence a
    search warrant application in which a Syracuse police officer swore
    that Mitchell had previously estimated the time of Hill’s death as
    ‚sometime Saturday the 28th of March afternoon, and *S+unday
    morning the 29th of March 1987.‛
    At the state 440.10 hearing, Calle attempted to justify his
    limited investigation as reflecting a tactical judgment to pursue an
    alternative strategy. He testified as follows:
    Q. Did you consider getting an expert
    witness regarding time of death?
    A. No, I didn’t.
    Q. Okay. Could you tell us what your—
    what your thoughts were on that at the
    time of the trial?
    A. I was under the belief—I was under the
    belief that Mr. Rivas did not commit this
    crime.
    41
    Q. Mm, hmm.
    A. I was under the belief that the cause of
    death was not a significant issue to his
    defense—
    Q. Mm, hmm.
    A. —because he wasn’t the one who
    committed that.
    Q. Mm, hmm.
    A. I believe that he had an alibi for the
    entire weekend.
    Q. Mm, hmm.
    A. The Friday there was a number of
    affidavits of people at bars in Cazenovia,
    Albert’s and another bar, I can’t recall the
    name, which placed him at that location
    some many miles away. In fact, Mr. Rivas
    and myself had gone up there conducting
    an investigation together and it didn’t seem
    to me to be pertinent—
    Q. Mm, hmm.
    A. —before the trial to determine if in fact
    the cause of death was a significant issue,
    because six years before the indictment the
    coroner, if that’s what you call him, he had
    indicated that death was either Saturday or
    Sunday and then six years later determined
    42
    it was Friday and I thought that I would be
    able to impeach his credibility which
    would prevent the District Attorney’s office
    from proving the crime beyond a
    reasonable doubt. . . .
    THE COURT: Can I just interrupt? You
    used a term ‚cause of death‛. I’m
    understanding you to mean time of death
    or am I incorrect?
    THE WITNESS: No, I did mean cause of
    death. That’s why I think I didn’t give
    significant attention to the—the—the
    retention of an expert coroner to refute the
    findings of Dr. Mitchell.
    THE COURT: And because there was you
    felt he was well alibied?
    THE WITNESS: Yes, sir.
    Section 440.10 Hearing Tr. at 85–87; see also 
    id. at 94–95,
    97–98. The
    state collateral review court credited this explanation, finding that
    ‚*d]efense counsel employed a trial strategy based upon a defense
    that defendant was sufficiently alibied for the entire weekend . . .
    and that the People would not be able to prove defendant’s guilt
    beyond a reasonable doubt whether the jury found that the crime
    occurred on Friday night or on Saturday night.‛ People v. Rivas, No.
    92–2794, slip op. at 34–35 (N.Y. Sup. Ct. Sept. 8, 2000). The state
    court concluded that ‚counsel formulated a trial strategy, it was an
    43
    objectively reasonable one, and it was executed in a reasonably
    competent manner.‛ 
    Id. at 34.
    We disagree.
    The record demonstrates that Calle relied on three sources in
    formulating his ‚strategy‛: (i) Rivas’s alibi, (ii) a newspaper article
    reporting that Mitchell had previously estimated the time of death
    as Saturday, March 28, or early Sunday morning, March 29, see Trial
    Tr. at 895, and (iii) Mitchell’s grand jury testimony, in which he had
    stated that a Friday time of death was ‚on the outside edge of
    possibility,‛ Trial Tr. at 907, 1062. Rather than justifying a decision
    not to investigate Mitchell’s findings further, however, this evidence
    would have led any reasonable attorney to conclude exactly the
    opposite: further investigation was absolutely vital.28
    Critically, Rivas’s alibi was uncorroborated and incomplete
    for a key three-and-a-half hour window—between approximately
    9:00 p.m. on Friday, March 27, 1987, and 12:30 a.m. on Saturday,
    March 28, 1987. See Trial Tr. at 440, 461–63, 469, 487–88, 849.29 Not
    28 The Supreme Court explained in Strickland that ‚*t+he proper measure
    of attorney performance remains simply reasonableness under prevailing
    professional 
    norms.‛ 466 U.S. at 688
    . The American Bar Association standards in
    effect in 1993 stated that ‚*d+efense counsel should conduct a prompt
    investigation of the circumstances of the case and explore all avenues leading to
    facts relevant to the merits of the case.‛ ABA Standards of Criminal Justice:
    Prosecution and Defense Functions § 4-4.1(a) (3d ed. 1993); see also Rompilla v.
    Beard, 
    545 U.S. 374
    , 387 (2005) (finding ABA Standards useful ‚‘guides to
    determining what is reasonable’‛ (quoting 
    Wiggins, 539 U.S. at 524
    )).
    29Indeed, the two witnesses who demonstrate that Rivas’s alibi was
    incomplete for these key three-and-a-half hours, Mark Brosh and Beverly
    44
    coincidentally, the core of the prosecution’s case was that Rivas
    killed Hill during this exact time frame. See, e.g., Trial Tr. at 31, 56,
    1069, 1083, 1125–26. The indictment charged Rivas with killing Hill
    ‚on or about the 27th day of March‛; the People’s Bill of Particulars
    stated that Rivas was alleged to have killed Hill ‚*o+n March 27th,
    1987 between the hours of 9:00pm and 12:00 midnight at 248 Hickok
    Avenue in the City of Syracuse‛; the prosecution argued repeatedly
    in its opening and its closing that Rivas killed Hill on Friday, March
    27, 1987, Trial Tr. at 31, 56, 1069, 1083, 1105, 1125–26; indeed, it
    argued that Rivas’s alibi was ‚complete‛ for Saturday night, March
    28, 1987, precisely because he had concocted it, having murdered
    Hill on Friday, March 27, Trial Tr. at 55; and finally the Certificate of
    Conviction states that Rivas was indicted for, and convicted of,
    second-degree murder ‚committed on March 27, 1987.‛ We are not
    persuaded by the District Court’s speculation that counsel may not
    have wanted to make an issue of ‚a narrowed time of death‛
    because of the ‚risk of fixing the jury’s attention on a time frame
    during which, by his own account, Rivas’ whereabouts could not be
    corroborated [i.e., between 4:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. Sunday morning
    when Rivas was sleeping+.‛ Rivas, 
    2013 WL 4026844
    , at *33. At no
    point did the prosecution argue that Rivas murdered Hill on
    Saturday or Sunday. The District Court’s conjecture regarding
    counsel’s motivations—which appears nowhere in the state
    Dorland, were listed on Rivas’s own notice of alibi, albeit apparently misspelled.
    See Notice of Alibi, People v. Rivas, Index No. 92-2794 (Onondaga Cnty. Ct.),
    available at Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891, ECF No. 55-2 at 42 (N.D.N.Y.).
    45
    collateral review court’s decision or in Calle’s testimony at the state
    440.10 hearing—resembles ‚more a post hoc rationalization of
    counsel’s     conduct      than    an     accurate     description      of   [his]
    deliberations.‛ 
    Wiggins, 539 U.S. at 526
    –27.
    The case therefore turned on rebutting the prosecution’s
    theory as to the time of death.30 Inexplicably, however, Calle relied
    on a strategy that was completely divorced from this central issue:
    He relied on an alibi defense when, in fact, Rivas did not have an
    alibi for the precise time that the prosecution claimed Rivas had
    murdered Hill. In effect, Calle’s alibi defense amounted to no
    defense at all. No ‚fairminded jurist[],‛ 
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 101
    ,
    could agree that this decision constituted ‚sound trial strategy,‛
    
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 689
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    Accordingly, the state court’s conclusion to the contrary was
    objectively unreasonable. See 
    Wiggins, 539 U.S. at 521
    .
    As to the newspaper article and grand jury testimony, this
    evidence also compelled further investigation. By Calle’s own
    admission, this evidence armed him with the knowledge that
    Mitchell had apparently changed his estimate as to the time of death
    six years after the fact, seemingly on the basis of no new evidence.
    30 As we previously stated, ‚it was the People’s position that Rivas’s alibi
    was so strong on Saturday night precisely because he had concocted it, having
    murdered Hill the night before. Therefore, the prosecution’s case rested almost
    entirely on the testimony of Mitchell, the medical examiner, to persuade the jury
    that Hill died on Friday night and not on Saturday as Mitchell had initially
    determined.‛ 
    Rivas, 687 F.3d at 524
    .
    46
    See Section 440.10 Hearing Tr. at 85–87. Coupled with the fact that
    the prosecution’s case turned entirely on linking Hill’s death to a
    time when Rivas had an incomplete alibi, this knowledge would
    have led any reasonable attorney to conclude that investigating the
    basis of Mitchell’s new findings was essential.31 Rather than
    investigate further, however, counsel’s investigation inexplicably
    stopped there, a decision Calle was unable to justify as consistent
    with his constitutional ‚duty to make reasonable investigations or to
    make a reasonable decision that makes particular investigations
    unnecessary.‛ 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 691
    . Considering all the
    circumstances, no ‚fairminded jurist[]‛ could agree that the
    quantum of evidence known to Calle at the time justified his
    decision to forego further investigation and rely instead on a
    critically deficient alibi and two perfunctory items of impeachment
    evidence that only scratched the surface of Mitchell’s revised
    findings. 
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 101
    ; see also 
    Wiggins, 539 U.S. at 527
    (‚Strickland does not establish that a cursory investigation
    automatically justifies a tactical decision . . . .‛).
    31  The Supreme Court has ‚recognized the threat to fair criminal trials
    posed by the potential for incompetent or fraudulent prosecution forensics
    experts. . . . This threat is minimized when the defense retains a competent expert
    to counter the testimony of the prosecution’s expert witnesses.‛ Hinton v.
    Alabama, 
    134 S. Ct. 1081
    , 1090 (2014); see also 
    id. at 1088
    (‚‘Criminal cases will arise
    where the only reasonable and available defense strategy requires consultation
    with experts or introduction of expert evidence.’‛ (quoting 
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 106
    )).
    47
    In sum, this is the exceedingly rare and exceptional case
    where the state court’s decision involved an ‚unreasonable
    application‛ of Strickland. 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d).
    B.
    Having established deficient performance, Rivas must also
    show ‚a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional
    errors, the result of the proceeding would have been different.‛
    
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    . It is well established that ‚*a+ reasonable
    probability is a probability sufficient to undermine confidence in the
    outcome.‛ 
    Id. ‚When a
    defendant challenges a conviction, the
    question is whether there is a reasonable probability that, absent the
    errors, the factfinder would have had a reasonable doubt respecting
    guilt.‛ 
    Id. at 695.
    We previously held that Rivas had presented a ‚credible‛ and
    ‚compelling‛ claim of actual innocence for purposes of establishing
    an equitable exception to AEDPA’s limitations period—that is, Rivas
    established that ‚a reasonable juror, apprised of all the evidence in
    the record, would more likely than not vote to acquit.‛ 
    Rivas, 687 F.3d at 552
    . The Supreme Court has held that this standard, which
    we previously concluded Rivas had met, requires ‚a stronger
    showing than that needed to establish prejudice‛ under Strickland.
    Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
    , 327 & n.45 (1995). Accordingly, for
    substantially the same reasons, we now hold that Rivas has
    established that, absent his counsel’s unprofessional errors and
    omissions, a factfinder would have had a reasonable doubt
    48
    respecting his guilt. See 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 695
    .32 Specifically, as
    we previously observed, those reasons were as follows:
    Ultimately . . . it does not matter how
    much indirect, circumstantial evidence the
    State amassed to suggest that Rivas killed
    Hill on Friday night, if she in fact died [at
    another time] . . . . Therefore, the question
    turns almost entirely on the relative
    credibility of the prosecution’s expert,
    Mitchell, and Rivas’s expert, Wecht. In this
    regard, we stress once more that the State,
    despite having the opportunity to challenge
    Wecht’s [affirmation before the state
    collateral review court], or to [submit] its
    own expert to support Mitchell’s
    conclusions, failed to raise any serious
    question about Wecht’s qualifications or
    conclusions. We therefore are left to weigh
    the unchallenged [affirmation] of a
    renowned       forensic      pathologist—who
    concluded ‚to a reasonable degree of
    medical certainty‛ that Hill could not have
    32 As we previously noted, our review is limited to the record before the
    state court that adjudicated Rivas’s claim. See supra note 1 (quoting Pinholster, 
    131 S. Ct. 1398
    ). For purposes of the present appeal we do not rely on Dr. Wecht’s
    testimony from the federal evidentiary hearing but note that Dr. Wecht’s
    unchallenged affirmation, which was submitted to the state collateral review
    court, reached the same conclusions. Aff. of Cyril H. Wecht, dated June 11, 1999,
    ¶ 17, available at Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891, ECF No. 56-2 at 23 (N.D.N.Y.
    Sept. 18, 2009).
    49
    died on Friday—against the testimony of a
    disgraced and allegedly beholden medical
    examiner, who initially told police that Hill
    died on Saturday evening, later told the
    grand jury that it was on the ‚outside edge
    of possibility‛ that she died on Friday
    evening, and finally testified, without
    reference to any degree of medical
    certainty, that it was ‚more likely‛ that she
    died on Friday night. . . .
    Finally, though we do not suggest
    that Mitchell intentionally lied on the stand
    or that District Attorney Fitzpatrick
    suborned perjury, we think a reasonable
    juror would discredit Mitchell’s testimony
    upon learning that he had been subject to
    numerous investigations for misconduct
    and official malfeasance and was under
    investigation for potentially criminal
    misconduct at the very moment that he was
    providing testimony in the criminal trial. In
    short, based on the record before us, any
    reasonable juror would almost certainly
    credit Wecht over Mitchell and would
    therefore, more likely than not, harbor a
    reasonable doubt about Rivas’s guilt.
    50
    
    Rivas, 687 F.3d at 546
    .33
    Although the state collateral review court did not make any
    express findings as to prejudice, we are required to assume for the
    purpose of argument that it would have denied Rivas’s ineffective-
    assistance claim also on that basis. See 
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 98
    (holding that habeas petitioner must show ‚there was no reasonable
    basis for the state court to deny relief‛ regardless of ‚whether or not
    the state court reveals which of the elements in a multipart claim it
    33  The District Court stated that ‚the extent to which Dr. Mitchell’s
    investigation was public knowledge . . . is unclear.‛ Rivas, 
    2013 WL 4026844
    , at
    *27. There were, however, numerous news articles predating Rivas’s March 1993
    trial reporting on investigations into Dr. Mitchell and his office. See, e.g., John
    O’Brien, Mitchell’s Policies Studied by Miller, SYRACUSE POST-STANDARD, Nov. 25,
    1989, at B1 (‚The Onondaga County health commissioner has begun reviewing
    the policies and performance of the medical examiner’s office, in light of recent
    publicity about questionable activities in the office.‛); Coroner Boiling Bones in
    Parking Lot: Report, SCHENECTADY GAZETTE, Oct. 28, 1989, at 47 (‚Medical
    Examiner Dr. Erik Mitchell has drawn complaints recently for the way he runs
    his office. Last month, Mitchell was directed by County Executive Nick Pirro to
    halt his practice of donating body parts for medical research without the consent
    of the dead person’s family. . . . Pirro has appointed an independent panel of
    three forensic pathologists to review *Mitchell’s handling of a separate+ case.‛);
    see also William Kates, Who Really Killed Nanette Gordon?, THE JOURNAL, Oct. 9,
    1989, at 1 (‚The *victim’s+ family has assailed the competency of Mitchell’s
    investigation and questioned whether the medical examiner could be objective
    because he was once a suspect in Gordon’s death.‛); Jim O’Hara, Medical
    Examiner Denies He Ordered Staff to Dice Body Parts, SYRACUSE HERALD-JOURNAL,
    Mar. 5, 1993, at A1 (‚Onondaga County Medical Examiner Erik Mitchell today
    dismissed as ‘lies, insults and slander’ a series of allegations leveled against him
    by employees, including a complaint he had staff dice brains and other body
    parts to be flushed away.‛).
    51
    found insufficient‛).34 To the extent it would have so ruled, we
    conclude that such a decision would have been objectively
    unreasonable for the reasons set forth above and in our prior
    opinion.
    34   In denying the other portions of Rivas’s § 440.10 motion, the state
    collateral review court held that ‚defendant cannot show that the fact that brain
    ‘tissue’ slides never existed impacted the jury verdict, because it is still not
    apparent that Dr. Mitchell wasn’t referring to a review of the photographic slides
    that were contained in the medical examiner’s file.‛ People v. Rivas, No. 92–2794,
    slip op. at 8 (N.Y. Sup. Ct. Sept. 8, 2000). This argument, however, overlooks the
    fact that the prosecutor told the jury in his closing statement that Dr. Mitchell
    had ‚review[ed] autopsy sectional slides of the brain.‛ Trial Tr. at 1083; see also
    
    Rivas, 687 F.3d at 525
    n.19. It also overlooks the fact that Dr. Wecht’s
    unchallenged affirmation states that ‚[d]ecomposition of internal organs is
    highly variable, and cannot be used for the determination of the time of
    death. . . . The examination of the brain or brain slides is an unreliable aid in
    estimating the time of death.‛ Aff. of Cyril H. Wecht, dated June 11, 1999, ¶¶ 10,
    14, available at Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891, ECF No. 56-2 at 21–22 (N.D.N.Y.
    Sept. 18, 2009); see also 
    Rivas, 687 F.3d at 525
    n.19.
    The state collateral review court also held that the investigation of Dr.
    Mitchell ‚revealed misconduct relative to disposal of bodies and body parts by
    the office, and while those activities may have contributed to Dr. Mitchell’s
    stepping down from his office, there have never been any allegations that he
    testified falsely in any trials.‛ People v. Rivas, No. 92–2794, slip op. at 13 (N.Y.
    Sup. Ct. Sept. 8, 2000). As noted above and in our prior opinion, however, this
    material would have been invaluable in impeaching Dr. Mitchell’s credibility,
    not necessarily because of the nature of the investigations themselves, but
    because of Dr. Mitchell’s possible conflict of interest in rendering his opinions in
    Rivas’s prosecution while under pending investigation by state and local
    investigators, including possibly those who were prosecuting Rivas. See 
    Rivas, 687 F.3d at 546
    .
    52
    CONCLUSION
    To summarize: We hold that it was an unreasonable
    application of Strickland for the state collateral review court to deny
    Rivas’s claim of ineffective assistance of counsel. Accordingly, we
    (1) REVERSE the judgment of the District Court, and
    (2) REMAND the cause.
    On remand, the District Court shall issue a writ of habeas
    corpus to Rivas on the sixtieth calendar day after the issuance of our
    mandate unless New York State has, by that time, taken concrete
    and substantial steps expeditiously to retry Rivas.
    The mandate shall issue forthwith. If further proceedings
    arising from Rivas’s habeas petition are required in this Court, the
    parties shall inform the Clerk of this Court. Jurisdiction will then be
    automatically restored to this Court without need for a new notice of
    appeal. After jurisdiction is restored, the Clerk shall set an expedited
    briefing schedule, and, in the interest of judicial economy, the matter
    will then be heard by this panel on letter briefs.
    53