Dennis v. Secretary, Pennsylvania Department of Corrections , 834 F.3d 263 ( 2016 )


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  •                                      PRECEDENTIAL
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE THIRD CIRCUIT
    _____________
    No. 13-9003
    _____________
    JAMES A. DENNIS
    v.
    SECRETARY, PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT OF
    CORRECTIONS;
    SUPERINTENDENT, STATE CORRECTIONAL
    INSTITUTION AT GREENE;
    SUPERINTENDENT, STATE CORRECTIONAL
    INSTITUTION AT ROCKVIEW;
    DISTRICT ATTORNEY OF PHILADELPHIA COUNTY,
    Appellants
    On appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania
    (District Court No.: 2-11-cv-01660)
    District Judge: Honorable Anita B. Brody
    Argued on November 5, 2014 before Merits Panel
    Argued En Banc on October 14, 2015
    Before: McKEE Chief Judge, AMBRO, FUENTES, SMITH,
    FISHER, CHAGARES, JORDAN, HARDIMAN,
    GREENAWAY, JR., VANASKIE, SHWARTZ, KRAUSE
    and RENDELL* Circuit Judges
    (Filed: August 23, 2016)
    Ronald Eisenberg, Esquire (Argued)
    Susan E. Affronti, Esquire
    Ryan Dunlavey, Esquire
    Philadelphia County Office of District Attorney
    3 South Penn Square
    Philadelphia, PA 19107
    Counsel for Appellants
    *Honorable Marjorie O. Rendell assumed Senior
    Status on July 1, 2015.
    2
    Amy L. Rohe, Esquire (Argued)
    Reisman Karron Green
    1700 K. Street, N.W.
    Suite 200
    Washington, DC 20006
    Stuart B. Lev, Esquire
    Federal Community Defender Office for the District of
    Pennsylvania
    Trial Unit
    601 Walnut Street
    The Curtis Center, Suite 540 West
    Philadelphia, PA 19106
    Counsel for Appellee
    Catherine M. A. Carroll, Esquire
    WilmerHale
    1875 Pennsylvania Avenue, N. W.
    Washington, DC 20006
    Counsel for Amicus Appellees
    3
    OPINION
    RENDELL, Circuit Judge.
    James Dennis has spent almost twenty-four years
    unsuccessfully challenging his conviction for the murder of
    Chedell Williams.         The Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    repeatedly affirmed Dennis’s first-degree murder conviction
    and sentence and denied his applications for post-conviction
    relief. Thereafter, Dennis filed an application under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    , and the United States District Court for the
    Eastern District of Pennsylvania granted Dennis habeas
    corpus relief, concluding that the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court had unreasonably applied Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
     (1963), with respect to three pieces of evidence suppressed
    by the Commonwealth. The suppressed Brady material—a
    receipt corroborating Dennis’s alibi, an inconsistent statement
    by the Commonwealth’s key eyewitness, and documents
    indicating that another individual committed the murder —
    effectively gutted the Commonwealth’s case against Dennis.
    The withholding of these pieces of evidence denied Dennis a
    fair trial in state court. We will therefore affirm the District
    Court’s grant of habeas relief based on his Brady claims.
    4
    I.    Background
    A.     Factual Background
    On October 22, 1991, Chedell Williams and Zahra
    Howard, students at Olney High School, climbed the steps of
    the Fern Rock SEPTA station, located in North Philadelphia.
    Two men approached the girls and demanded “give me your
    fucking earrings.” App. 465. The girls fled down the steps;
    Howard ran to a nearby fruit vendor’s stand and Williams ran
    into the intersection at Tenth and Nedro Streets. The men
    followed Williams. The perpetrators tore Williams’s gold
    earrings from her earlobes. One of the men grabbed her, held
    a silver handgun to her neck, and shot her. The men then ran
    up the street to a waiting getaway car and fled the scene. The
    precise time of injury was 1:54 p.m. Emergency personnel
    responded within minutes, but Williams was pronounced
    dead at the hospital less than an hour later.
    B.     Police Investigation and the Trial
    The police undertook an investigation into the
    Williams murder, primarily aimed at determining the identity
    of the shooter. Frank Jastrzembski led a team of detectives
    who pursued the investigation based on rumors that “Jimmy”
    Dennis from the Abbottsford Homes projects in East Falls1
    committed the crime, despite being unable to identify the
    source of the rumors. Resting on tips by neighbors from the
    1
    The Fern Rock SEPTA station is located in North
    Philadelphia. The Abbottsford projects are located in
    Northwest Philadelphia.
    5
    projects, police proceeded with Dennis as the primary, if not
    the sole, suspect.2
    Detectives obtained eyewitness reports and
    identifications, very few of which aligned with Dennis’s
    appearance. Nearly all of the eyewitnesses who gave height
    estimates of the shooter described him as between 5’9” and
    5’10.” He was described as having a dark complexion and
    weighing about 170 to 180 pounds. The victim, Williams,
    had a similar build as the shooter; she was 5’10” and weighed
    150 pounds. Dennis, on the other hand, is 5’5” tall and
    weighed between 125 and 132 pounds at the time of trial.
    Prior to trial, three eyewitnesses identified Dennis in a
    photo array, at an in-person lineup, and at a preliminary
    hearing: Williams’s friend, Zahra Howard; a man working on
    a garage near the intersection, Thomas Bertha; and a SEPTA
    employee who was standing in front of the station at the time
    of the murder, James Cameron.3
    2
    Detective Jastrzembski testified at trial that neither
    the alleged second individual nor the person in the car were
    ever arrested, although the case was ongoing.
    3
    Chief Judge McKee’s masterful concurrence
    summarizes with great detail the photo array, line up, and the
    bystanders’ identifications. As Chief Judge McKee notes, a
    majority of the nine eyewitnesses who viewed the photo array
    were unable to identify Dennis. Anthony Overstreet was
    installing stone facing on a nearby garage with Bertha at the
    time of the incident. Overstreet told police that he recognized
    the shooter from around Broad and Olney Streets in North
    Philadelphia. Although Overstreet stated that Dennis looked
    like the shooter when he reviewed the photo array, he
    6
    Zahra Howard
     Photo Array: Howard identified Dennis, saying
    “this one looks like the guy, but I can’t be sure . . .
    He looks a little like the guy that shot Chedell.”
    App. 1537. When asked if she could be sure, she
    replied “No.” 
    Id.
     Lineup: Howard indicated that she “thought”
    Dennis was the shooter. App. 586.4
    identified a different individual as the shooter during a later
    in-person lineup—not Dennis. George Ritchie, who was
    across the street from Bertha and Overstreet, was unable to
    identify anyone as the shooter among photos provided by the
    police, despite initially asserting that he would be able to
    identify the perpetrators again. The two fruit vendors
    Howard ran toward, David Leroy, a hot dog vendor near the
    station, and Clarence Verdell, a bystander on the SEPTA
    steps, did not identify Dennis from the photo array. None of
    these bystanders were called to testify at trial.
    4
    The District Court reasoned that the eyewitnesses’
    memory may have been supplanted by photos from the array:
    “That some (but notably not all) of the witnesses went on to
    identify Mr. Dennis in a life [sic] lineup two months after
    providing only tentative photo array identification indicates
    that their memories of the photo array may have ‘replaced’
    their memories of the actual event. Or, more simply, that Mr.
    Dennis was familiar to them because they had seen his photo
    previously, and had no prior exposure to the other members
    of the lineup.” Dennis v. Wetzel, 
    966 F. Supp. 2d 489
    , 492
    n.4 (E.D. Pa. 2013) (internal quotation marks and citation
    omitted), vacated and remanded sub nom. Dennis v. Sec’y,
    7
     Preliminary Hearing and Trial: Howard testified at
    trial that she had identified Dennis as the shooter at
    a preliminary hearing. App. 474-75. She also
    made an in-court identification during trial. 
    Id.
    Thomas Bertha
     Photo Array: Bertha initially said that the first
    photo, which was a photo of Dennis, looked like
    the man running with the gun and later confirmed
    his identification.
     Lineup: When asked to identify the shooter, Bertha
    simply stated “three,” which was Dennis. App.
    586.
    Pa. Dep’t of Corr., 
    777 F.3d 642
     (3d Cir. 2015), reh’g en
    banc granted, opinion vacated (May 6, 2015) (“Dennis V”).
    Chief Judge McKee’s concurrence expands on this
    concern. He observes that “[a]llowing a witness to view a
    suspect more than once during an investigation can have a
    powerful corrupting effect on that witness’ memory.” J.
    McKee Concurring Op. at 26. Research shows “that while
    fifteen percent of witnesses who mistakenly identify an
    innocent person during the first viewing of a lineup, that
    percentage jumps to thirty-seven percent if the witness
    previously viewed that innocent person’s mug shot.” 
    Id.
    Here, “[t]he witnesses who identified Dennis at trial were
    given not two, but three, opportunities to view Dennis. These
    multiple views could help explain why initially tentative
    guesses became certain identifications by the time the
    witnesses took the stand.” 
    Id.
     at 33
    8
     Trial: Bertha identified Dennis as the shooter at
    trial.
    James Cameron
     Photo Array: Cameron said that Dennis looked like
    the shooter, but wavered “I can’t be sure.” App.
    1548.
     Lineup: Cameron identified Dennis, who was in the
    third position in the lineup, by simply stating
    “number three” without reservation. App. 689.
     Preliminary Hearing and Trial: At trial, Cameron
    identified Dennis as the shooter and confirmed that
    he had identified Dennis at the preliminary hearing.
    At trial, the prosecutor introduced testimony from
    detectives who verified that Howard, Bertha, and Cameron
    each identified Dennis in the photo array and lineup. No
    other eyewitness identifications were referenced.
    Dennis was arrested on November 22, 1991. His
    signed statement indicated that he stayed at his father’s house
    until about 1:30 p.m. on the day in question, when his father
    drove him to the bus stop and watched him get on the “K” bus
    toward Abbottsford Homes to attend singing practice that
    evening. Dennis rode the K bus for approximately thirty
    minutes to the intersection of Henry and Midvale Avenues.
    During the trip, Dennis saw Latanya Cason, a woman he
    knew from Abbottsford Homes. In his statement to police,
    which was read into the record at trial, Dennis asserted that
    when he and Cason disembarked the bus “[he] waved to her.”
    
    9 App. 710
    . After getting off the bus, Dennis walked to
    Abbottsford Homes, where he spent the rest of the day with
    his friends. Dennis’s father, James Murray, corroborated
    Dennis’s story. He stated that they spent the morning
    together, and that he drove Dennis to the bus stop shortly
    before 2:00 p.m. to catch the K bus to Abbottsford Homes.
    The Commonwealth’s case rested primarily on
    eyewitness testimony, which Assistant District Attorney
    Roger King emphasized in his opening statement to the jury.
    Though ADA King acknowledged that the Commonwealth
    had no physical evidence—the silver handgun and the
    earrings were never recovered—he contended that the
    eyewitness identifications were sufficient for a conviction.
    Three eyewitnesses were called to testify at trial: Zahra
    Howard, Thomas Bertha, and James Cameron.
    Zahra Howard, who was present with the victim at the
    time of the murder, led the Commonwealth’s case. She
    recounted what had occurred, noting that the shooter was
    “right in front of” her and Williams, about one or two feet
    away, and that she looked the shooter in the face. App. 467–
    68. About ten seconds passed between the first time she saw
    the men until she turned around and ran away from the scene;
    she also saw the shooter for about five to ten seconds while
    he was grabbing Williams in the street. Howard identified
    Dennis in a photo array, at an in-person lineup, and at a
    preliminary hearing. Defense counsel focused his cross-
    examination on her hesitation in prior identifications.
    Howard described the shooter as wearing a black hooded
    sweatshirt and a red sweat suit. In her statement, Howard
    said that the shooter was about same height as Detective
    Danks, who was 5’9” or 5’10,” or taller. Howard testified at
    10
    trial that she had never seen the shooter or his accomplice
    before in her life.
    Thomas Bertha and his partner, Anthony Overstreet,
    were installing stones on a garage near Tenth and Nedro
    Streets on the day in question. After hearing the gunshot,
    they came down from their ladders and looked down the
    street from the sidewalk. The two perpetrators ran past them.
    The shooter passed between three to eight feet in front of
    Bertha, and Bertha ran after him. Bertha made visual contact
    with the shooter, who was running toward him, for about
    three to four seconds. Defense counsel impeached Bertha by
    recalling that, at the preliminary hearing, Bertha testified that
    he could not have seen the shooter for longer than about a
    second. Bertha viewed the photo array and attended the
    lineup, identifying Dennis at both. He described the shooter
    as wearing red sweat pants, a red hooded sweatshirt, a black
    cap, and a leather jacket. Bertha testified at trial that he
    remembered telling the police that the shooter was 5’9” and
    180 pounds.
    James Cameron was working as a SEPTA cashier on
    the day of the murder. He was about eight to ten feet from
    Williams when she was shot and saw the shooter for a few
    seconds. Cameron saw the shooter’s face several times but
    acknowledged that he “didn’t really pay attention.” App.
    664. He testified at trial that he saw the shooter for about
    thirty to forty seconds collectively.            This estimate
    contradicted Cameron’s prior testimony at the preliminary
    hearing where he claimed that about twenty seconds passed
    between when he first saw the shooter and when the shooter
    ran away. Cameron viewed the array, attended the lineup, and
    testified at the preliminary hearing, identifying Dennis at each
    11
    instance, as well as at trial. Cameron stated that Dennis
    looked like the shooter, “especially from the side.” App. 676.
    He described the shooter as wearing a red sweat suit and a
    dark jacket, carrying a small silver revolver. He did not
    remember giving detectives a specific height and weight
    description, but remembered telling them that the shooter was
    “stocky.”
    5 App. 664
    .
    Aside from eyewitness testimony, the Commonwealth
    presented testimony from Charles “Pop” Thompson and
    Latanya Cason, who spoke about their interactions with
    Dennis on October 22, 1991, the day of the murder.
    Thompson was in Dennis’s singing group, which held
    rehearsal at Abbottsford Homes that day. Thompson did not
    remember what Dennis was wearing, but told detectives that
    he saw Dennis with a gun that night. He also identified an
    illustrative .32 chrome revolver, which had been admitted as a
    Commonwealth exhibit, as being similar to the one he saw in
    Dennis’s possession. Thompson had an open drug possession
    5
    Detectives Manuel Santiago and William Wynn
    testified at trial about the eyewitnesses’ prior identifications.
    Detective Santiago supervised the activities at the crime scene
    on the day of the murder and compiled a photo array to show
    to Howard, Bertha, and Cameron, which included eight
    photographs with Dennis’s photo in the first position. Dennis
    looked different in the photograph than at the time of arrest.
    Santiago did not ask Howard why she could not be sure that it
    was the shooter. Detective Wynn, the lineup supervisor for
    the Philadelphia Police, conducted the in-person lineups for
    Howard, Bertha, and Cameron. Defense counsel placed
    Dennis as number three in the lineup. All participants dressed
    similarly and carried large numbers for identification.
    12
    charge at the time of trial, but testified that he was not
    expecting any help from the Commonwealth with the drug
    charge in exchange for his testimony. Three years after trial,
    Thompson attested in a statement that he had never seen
    Dennis with a gun and that his testimony at trial was false.
    Latanya Cason, who knew Dennis “by living up [her]
    way” at Abbottsford Homes, testified that she saw him
    between 4:00 and 4:30 p.m. at Henry and Midvale Avenues
    on October 22, 1991. App. 731. Cason’s estimate that she
    saw Dennis between 4:00 and 4:30 p.m. was “strictly a guess”
    on her part—she did not know exactly what time she saw
    Dennis—but there was no question she saw him that day.
    App. 745. Prior to seeing Dennis, Cason took public
    transportation to the 3-2 center where she picked up her
    public assistance check, signing a document to confirm pick
    up. She then filled her daughter’s prescription, got some fish,
    ran a few additional errands, and went home via the K bus.
    Cason testified at trial that she did not see Dennis at 2:00 p.m.
    that day because she was just leaving work at 2:00 p.m.
    Although the Commonwealth introduced a schedule of
    payment and food stamps at trial, which stated that Cason was
    slated to pick up her public assistance check and food stamps
    on October 22, 1991, nothing was introduced at trial
    indicating the precise time of day she retrieved her benefits.
    Detective Jastrzembski executed a search warrant of
    Dennis’s father’s home and seized two black jackets, a pair of
    red pants, and a pair of white sneakers. The police lost the
    items prior to trial. Detectives and two experts testified at
    trial about physical aspects of the crime, but the
    13
    Commonwealth did not introduce any physical evidence at
    trial. 6
    Dennis’s defense strategy centered on his alibi, good
    character, and mistaken identity.7 His defense comprised of
    6
    The Commonwealth’s other witnesses did not testify
    as to Dennis’s connection to the murder. Rather, they spoke
    to the emergency response to the crime (Fireman Oakes), the
    scene of the crime (Sergeant Fetscher), Williams’s body chart
    (Detective Brown), and the projectile removed from her body
    (Detective Reinhold). Williams’s ex-boyfriend recounted a
    prior incident where Williams had been robbed at gunpoint
    for the same earrings she wore on the day of the murder.
    Officer Jachimowicz, a firearms expert, testified as to the type
    of gun that was likely used in the murder, and although he
    acknowledged that there were thousands of models of .32
    caliber handguns, he asserted with certainty that the nickel
    finish Harrington Richardson 733 was probably used in the
    murder. Detective Dominic Mangoni transported Howard and
    Bertha to the lineup. Detective Thomas Perks participated in
    Dennis’s arrest. Williams’s mother and father, Barbara and
    Barry, identified their daughter and testified to her future. Dr.
    Sekula-Perlman, a medical examiner, ruled Williams’s death
    a homicide by a shot at close range. Sergeant Fetscher took
    information from witnesses at the scene, including Howard,
    Bertha, and Cameron. None of these witnesses testified
    substantively as to Dennis’s alleged involvement in the
    murder.
    7
    Defense counsel sought to discredit eyewitness
    testimony put forth by the Commonwealth, primarily that of
    Zahra Howard. However, counsel’s cross-examination was
    confined to highlighting Howard’s prior hesitation in
    identifying Dennis. Similarly, defense counsel’s cross-
    14
    testimony by his father, James Murray, Dennis himself, a few
    members of his singing group, and character witnesses.
    Dennis did not have evidence to support an “other suspect”
    defense.
    Dennis’s father testified that the two of them were
    together from the evening of October 21, 1991, until about
    1:50 p.m. on October 22, 1991. Murray lives about fifteen to
    eighteen blocks from the Fern Rock Station, roughly a five-
    minute drive with traffic. Murray testified that “[he] kn[ew]
    for a fact that [Dennis] was on [the K bus]” at the time of
    Williams’s murder because he drove Dennis to the stop and
    watched from his car as Dennis boarded the bus. App. 804.
    The Commonwealth pointed out that Murray had visited
    Dennis forty times since his arrest.
    Willis Meredith, James Smith, and Marc Nelson,
    members of Dennis’s singing group who had known Dennis
    for ten years or more, testified on Dennis’s behalf about
    rehearsal on the day of the murder. Meredith saw Dennis for
    about twenty minutes around 2:15 or 2:30 p.m., which
    aligned with Dennis’s account. Smith testified that Dennis
    was dressed in dark sweats and a dark hooded shirt at
    rehearsal that night—he was not wearing any red. Meredith,
    Smith, and Nelson each testified that Thompson and Dennis
    frequently got into arguments. Each testified that they had
    examination of Cason focused on shakiness in her
    recollection; counsel had nothing to indicate that her timeline
    was incorrect, or that she was mistaken or testifying falsely.
    15
    not seen a handgun in Dennis’s possession.8 Other defense
    witnesses, including Dennis’s brothers, friends, and church
    leaders, testified to Dennis’s reputation for being honest,
    truthful, peaceful, and law-abiding.9
    Finally, Dennis took the stand. He testified that he had
    nothing to do with Williams’s shooting and was not in the
    area at the time of her murder.10 In line with his father’s
    testimony, Dennis said he spent the previous night at his
    father’s house and left at 1:30 or 1:45 p.m. to take the bus to
    Abbottsford Homes for singing practice. When Dennis left
    his father’s house, he was wearing a dark blue jeans set; he
    changed into black sweats at Merriweather’s house before
    rehearsal. Dennis testified that he took the K bus, where he
    “thought” he saw Tammy Cason, to Henry and Midvale
    Avenues in East Falls, arriving around 2:30 p.m.
    11 App. 8
    Lawrence Merriweather also testified to seeing
    Dennis on the day in question. Merriweather testified that he
    saw Dennis between 3:00 and 3:30 p.m.
    9
    The Commonwealth responded with character
    witnesses that disputed the testimony of Dennis’s character
    witnesses.
    10
    Dennis testified that Helen Everett, his girlfriend,
    told him about the rumor that he, Derrick, and Rodney,
    committed the murder. He testified that Derrick and Rodney
    spoke with the police about the murder. Neither testified at
    trial.
    11
    Anthony Sheridan, a SEPTA employee called by the
    Commonwealth, testified that there was a K bus that left the
    stop near Dennis’s father’s house at approximately 1:56 p.m.
    and that it would take approximately half an hour to arrive at
    Henry and Midvale.
    16
    1028. Dennis then went to Willis Meredith’s house for
    twenty to thirty minutes. Dennis acknowledged getting into
    frequent arguments with Thompson about Thompson’s desire
    to be the leader of the singing group.
    Counsels’ closings reiterated the trial’s themes—
    eyewitness identifications and Dennis’s alibi.       Defense
    counsel pointed to eyewitness identifications as the key
    question in the Commonwealth’s case, but he had no means
    of impeaching Howard, the eyewitness with the closest view
    of the shooter. Defense counsel highlighted Thompson’s
    motive to lie, but Thompson’s testimony did not directly link
    Dennis to Williams’s murder. Finally, defense counsel had to
    backtrack from using Cason to bolster Dennis’s timeline due
    to the timing discrepancy between her version—that they saw
    one another between 4:00 and 4:30—and Dennis’s account
    that he saw Cason at 2:30. In his closing statement to the
    jury, counsel urged that Dennis had not, in fact, seen Cason
    on the bus to detract from the inconsistency.
    ADA King similarly saw Howard as the key witness at
    trial and instructed the jury that “if you believe Zahra
    Howard, that’s enough to convict James Dennis.” App. 1207.
    King attacked Dennis’s testimony that he saw Tammy Cason
    on the K bus as incredible, and undercut Dennis’s father’s
    testimony by urging that “blood is thicker than water,”
    leaving no disinterested witnesses to support Dennis’s
    account. App. 1208-09.
    17
    The jury found Dennis guilty of first-degree murder,
    robbery, carrying a firearm without a license, criminal
    conspiracy, and possession of an instrument of a crime. It
    found Dennis’s lack of significant criminal history a
    mitigating factor during the penalty phase, but it also found
    that the killing was committed in the course of a felony,
    amounting to an aggravating circumstance.           The jury
    sentenced Dennis to death.
    C.     Undisclosed Evidence
    The prosecution failed to disclose to Dennis’s counsel
    three pieces of exculpatory and impeachment evidence: (1) a
    receipt revealing the time that Cason had picked up her
    welfare benefits, several hours before the time she had
    testified to at trial, thus corroborating Dennis’s alibi (the
    “Cason receipt”); (2) a police activity sheet memorializing
    that Howard had given a previous statement inconsistent with
    her testimony at trial, which provided both invaluable
    material to discredit the Commonwealth’s key eyewitness and
    evidence that someone else committed the murder (the
    “Howard police activity sheet”); and (3) documents regarding
    a tip from an inmate detailing his conversation with a man
    other than Dennis who identified himself as the victim’s killer
    (the “Frazier documents”).
    1.     Cason receipt
    Detectives interviewed Latanya Cason, the woman
    identified in Dennis’s initial statement, at Abbottsford Homes
    a few months after Dennis’s arrest. Cason told detectives that
    she thought she remembered seeing Dennis the day of the
    murder, but her timeline contradicted the one Dennis
    18
    outlined. She said that she worked until 2:00 p.m., went to
    the 3-2 center to pick up her public assistance check, picked
    up a prescription and some fish, boarded the K bus, and got
    off near Abbottsford Homes. According to Cason, she saw
    Dennis when she got off the K bus between 4:00 and 4:30
    p.m., not between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. as Dennis indicated.
    The only discrepancy between Dennis’s testimony and
    Cason’s was the time of their interaction. Police records
    indicate that Cason gave detectives a Department of Public
    Welfare (“DPW”) card marked “Schedule of check payment”
    at the time of her interview, which was introduced at trial.
    However, the Commonwealth possessed another DPW
    document not disclosed at trial—a receipt bearing the time
    Cason picked up her check. Cason testified at trial as a
    witness for the prosecution and her testimony aligned with
    her initial statement to detectives.
    On appeal, Dennis’s new appellate counsel obtained
    Cason’s time-stamped receipt from the DPW.12 Cason stated
    in an affidavit that police had a copy of the time-stamped
    receipt when they interviewed her and that she gave police
    her only copy of the receipt. The receipt indicated that Cason
    picked up her welfare check at 13:03, or 1:03 p.m. In
    complete contradiction to her trial testimony, then, Cason
    could not have been working until 2:00 p.m. that day. Cason
    12
    It is not clear how counsel would have been able to
    obtain Cason’s receipt on appeal because DPW regulations
    placed strict limitations on the type of information it would
    disclose and to whom. See 
    55 Pa. Code § 105.4
    (a)(1).
    Presumably, counsel would have sought permission from
    Cason, or assistance from Cason herself, in obtaining the
    receipt.
    19
    attributed her prior incorrect testimony to misunderstanding
    military time, so that she “may have thought that the 13:03,
    which is on the receipt, was 3:03 p.m.” App. 1736. Based on
    the discrete time indicated on the receipt, Cason’s affidavit
    stated she would have seen Dennis “between 2:00 and 2:30
    p.m. at the Abbottsford Homes, and not 4:00 to 4:30 that is in
    my statement.” 
    Id. 2
    .     Howard police activity sheet
    Two days after the murder, detectives interviewed
    Diane and Mannasset Pugh, Williams’s aunt and uncle.
    Diane Pugh told detectives that, the night after the murder,
    Zahra Howard told them that she recognized the assailants
    from Olney High School, where she and Williams were
    students.   Dennis did not attend Olney High School.
    Howard’s assertion that she recognized the assailants from
    school contradicted her prior statements to police that she had
    never seen the men before and did not recognize them from
    school. Police recorded in their “THINGS TO DO” list that
    they planned to interview Howard about her inconsistent
    statements.
    Howard further told the Pughs that two people named
    “Kim” and “Quinton” had also been present at the murder.
    The following day, another of Williams’s aunts, Elaine
    Parker, told police that Howard mentioned Kim and Quinton
    were at the scene. The Commonwealth disclosed Parker’s
    statement prior to trial. However, the prosecution did not
    disclose information about Howard’s inconsistent statement
    to the Pughs. Mere hours after meeting with Parker and
    receiving additional information that Howard had omitted or
    misstated facts in her initial statement to police, two
    20
    detectives met with Howard, ostensibly to follow up on their
    “things to do.” Ignoring their recorded intentions, however,
    the detectives only questioned Howard about a photo array
    and did not inquire about the inconsistent statements.
    3.     Frazier documents
    Prior to Dennis’s arrest, Philadelphia detectives
    received a call from Montgomery County police relaying a tip
    from an inmate at the Montgomery County Correctional
    Facility, William Frazier. Frazier told Montgomery County
    detectives that he spoke with the man who may have
    murdered Williams during a three-way call with Frazier’s
    friend, Tony Brown, facilitated by Frazier’s aunt. During the
    call, Brown told Frazier and Frazier’s aunt that he “fucked
    up” and murdered Williams when the gun went off
    accidentally during a botched robbery of her earrings. App.
    1692. He also said that two other men, Ricky Walker and
    “Skeet,” aided in committing the crime. Frazier told
    detectives that Brown had a brown car, that he “like[d] to
    wear sweat suits,” and that the men knew the victim as
    “Kev[’s] . . . girl.”
    13 App. 1694
    –95.
    Frazier told police that Brown and the others had hid
    in Frazier’s empty apartment for two days following the
    murder. Frazier provided addresses for the men, including
    their parents’ and girlfriends’ addresses, an address and phone
    number for his aunt, and an address for the pawn shop Brown
    frequented. Frazier volunteered to take detectives on a “ride
    along” to point out the houses and pawn shop.
    13
    Williams, the victim, previously dated a man named
    Kevin Williams.
    21
    Following the tip, Detectives Santiago and
    Jastrzembski interviewed Walker, who admitted to knowing
    Williams from Olney High School, but denied knowing
    Brown or Skeet. Walker denied any involvement in the
    murder, and claimed that his mother could verify that he was
    sleeping when Williams was murdered. Walker admitted to
    hanging out around Broad and Olney, the exact area where
    Overstreet said he had seen the perpetrator before. Detectives
    never verified Walker’s alibi nor showed his photo to any of
    the eyewitnesses. Detectives never located Brown or Skeet.
    Detectives, including Jastrzembski, spoke with
    Frazier’s landlord, who had no knowledge of anyone entering
    Frazier’s apartment. Detectives did not interview Frazier’s
    aunt to obtain her account of the call with Brown.
    The Commonwealth suppressed at least six documents
    relating to the Frazier tip from Dennis’s trial counsel: (1)
    Frazier’s initial statement to the Montgomery County police
    (Oct 31, 1991); (2) Frazier’s statement to the Philadelphia
    police (Nov. 1, 1991); (3) Police Activity Sheet regarding
    Frazier’s landlord (Nov. 1, 1991); (4) Police Activity Sheet
    regarding Ricky Walker (Nov. 2, 1991); (5) Frazier’s signed
    search consent; and (6) Ricky Walker’s statement (Nov. 2,
    1991). The Commonwealth concedes that these documents
    were not disclosed to Dennis until a decade after trial.
    22
    D.     Review of State Court Conviction
    Like many habeas cases, this case has a lengthy
    procedural history. Only those decisions and arguments
    relevant to the instant appeal are summarized below.
    On July 22, 1998, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    affirmed Dennis’s conviction and death sentence on direct
    appeal by a vote of four to three. Commonwealth v. Dennis,
    
    715 A.2d 404
     (Pa. 1998) (“Dennis I”). Dennis argued on
    direct appeal that the Commonwealth violated his due process
    rights by failing to disclose Cason’s time-stamped receipt
    prior to trial, in opposition to Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
    (1963). 14
    On September 15, 1998, Dennis filed a timely pro se
    petition pursuant to Pennsylvania’s Post Conviction Relief
    Act (“PCRA”), received new counsel, and also received
    discovery. In December 1999, PCRA counsel was appointed
    and filed an amended petition, and, subsequently, a
    supplemental amended petition and a second supplemental
    14
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s 2004 decision,
    Commonwealth v. Dennis, 
    859 A.2d 1270
     (Pa. 2004)
    (“Dennis II”), is not relevant to this appeal. On December 12,
    2000, Dennis filed a motion for discovery, seeking the
    prosecutor’s jury selection notes, and the PCRA court granted
    Dennis’s motion.        After granting the Commonwealth’s
    request for reconsideration of the order, the PCRA court
    reinstated the discovery order on July 10, 2001. In Dennis II,
    the Pennsylvania Supreme Court reversed the order granting
    discovery of the prosecutor’s jury selection notes and
    remanded the case for completion of PCRA review.
    23
    petition on December 1, 2000, and July 10, 2002,
    respectively. Two pieces of evidence at issue in this appeal
    were disclosed during PCRA discovery. First, Dennis
    received the police activity sheet memorializing Howard’s
    statements to Diane Pugh the night after the murder, which
    indicated that she recognized the shooter from Olney High
    School. Second, Dennis received the six documents relating
    to the Frazier lead that police had abandoned. The PCRA
    court denied Dennis’s claims that the prosecution violated
    Brady by failing to disclose the Howard statement and the
    Frazier documents.        Dennis again appealed to the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court.
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court affirmed the PCRA
    court in part and vacated in part, and remanded two claims.
    Commonwealth v. Dennis, 
    950 A.2d 945
     (Pa. 2008) (“Dennis
    III”). The court found that the Commonwealth’s failure to
    disclose the Frazier documents did not violate Brady because
    the prosecution was not required to disclose “every fruitless
    lead” and that “inadmissible evidence cannot be the basis for
    a Brady violation.” 
    Id. at 968
     (internal quotation marks
    omitted) (quoting Commonwealth v. Lambert, 
    884 A.2d 848
    ,
    857 (2005)).
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court remanded to the
    PCRA court Dennis’s claim that the Commonwealth violated
    Brady by suppressing the contents of the police activity sheet
    memorializing Zahra Howard’s inconsistent statement. After
    evidentiary hearings on remand, the PCRA court again
    dismissed Dennis’s petition. Commonwealth v. Dennis, Case
    No. 92-01-0484, slip op. (Pa. Ct. Com. Pl. Mar. 17, 2010).
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court concluded that it was not
    relevant that Howard denied her prior inconsistent statement
    24
    at the evidentiary hearing before the PCRA court. See, e.g.,
    Commonwealth v. Dennis, 
    17 A.3d 297
    , 309 (Pa. 2011)
    (“Dennis IV”).
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court affirmed the PCRA
    denial on appeal. 
    Id.
     It concluded that the police activity
    sheet was not material under Brady because “Howard was
    extensively cross-examined” and because “there were two
    eyewitnesses other than Howard who observed the shooting
    at close range . . . [and] positively identified [Dennis] as the
    shooter in a photo array, in a line up, and at trial.” 
    Id.
    Following the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling,
    Dennis filed a habeas corpus petition under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of
    Pennsylvania for review of his conviction and death sentence.
    The District Court granted Dennis habeas relief based on
    Dennis’s Brady claims as to the Commonwealth’s failure to
    disclose the Cason receipt, the Frazier documents, and the
    police activity sheet containing Howard’s inconsistent
    statement. Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 518.
    The District Court concluded that the state court’s
    ruling regarding the Cason receipt involved an unreasonable
    determination of the facts. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    had concluded that the receipt was not exculpatory because
    (1) “[Cason’s] testimony would not support Appellant’s
    alibi”; (2) it would have been cumulative of testimony by
    another witness; and (3) there was no evidence that the
    Commonwealth withheld the receipt from the defense.
    Dennis I, 715 A.2d at 408. The District Court determined
    that the receipt corroborated Dennis’s alibi, provided direct
    evidence that Cason’s testimony was false, and would have
    25
    been strong impeachment evidence. Therefore, the state
    court’s determination that the receipt was not “exculpatory”
    was an unreasonable determination of the facts. Dennis V,
    966 F. Supp. 2d at 508.
    The District Court also concluded the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court had engaged in a similarly unreasonable
    determination of facts regarding whether the receipt was
    actually suppressed by the police. In its opinion, the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court stated that the police came into
    possession of the receipt when interviewing Cason, and that
    the Commonwealth never claimed to have disclosed the
    receipt to defense counsel. The District Court relied on Kyles
    v. Whitley, 
    514 U.S. 419
    , 437 (1995), for the proposition that
    favorable evidence in the police’s possession is imputed to
    the prosecution. Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 509–10. It also
    interpreted the three-factor balancing test in United States v.
    Pelullo, 
    399 F.3d 197
     (3d Cir. 2005), to come out in favor of
    required disclosure by the Commonwealth. Further, the state
    court’s conclusion that the receipt was not material was an
    unreasonable application of clearly established federal law
    because the “receipt and Cason’s accompanying corrected
    testimony would have provided independent, disinterested
    corroboration of Dennis’[s] explanation for where he was at
    the time of Williams’[s] murder,” would have transformed
    Cason from a government witness into a defense witness who
    supported Dennis’s alibi, and would have provided
    impeachment evidence to challenge Cason’s testimony that
    she had worked until 2:00 p.m. that day, which otherwise
    could not have been challenged. Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at
    511.
    26
    The District Court also granted habeas relief on the
    basis of Dennis’s Brady claim regarding the Frazier
    documents, concluding that the state court had adopted an
    unreasonably narrow reading of Brady. The Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court had held that the prosecution did not violate
    Brady by failing to disclose the Frazier documents because
    Dennis did not show that the documents were admissible and
    material. The District Court rejected the assertion that
    inadmissible evidence cannot be the basis of a Brady claim,
    reasoning that the United States Supreme Court has never
    stated such a rule and that most circuit courts, including the
    Third Circuit, have held to the contrary. Id. at 503.
    Additionally, that the United States Supreme Court proceeded
    with the Brady analysis after acknowledging that the
    polygraph results at issue in Wood v. Bartholomew, 
    516 U.S. 1
     (1995), were not admissible indicated to the District Court
    that there is no admissibility requirement for Brady evidence.
    Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 503.
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court had also held that
    the prosecution need not disclose every “fruitless lead” in
    order to comply with Brady. The District Court determined
    that this conclusion was unreasonable under Kyles. The
    Frazier documents contained “internal markers of credibility,”
    such as a description of the victim as “Kev[’s] . . . girl,”
    which was accurate, an admission to shooting the victim in
    the correct location on her body, and a description of the
    alleged perpetrators that matched other descriptions of the
    shooter more closely than Dennis did. Id. at 504. The
    District Court reasoned that the Frazier documents would
    have led to further investigation that could have proved vital
    to the defense and could have been used to impeach the police
    27
    investigation or provide a defense that another person
    committed the murder. Id. at 505.
    Lastly, the District Court granted habeas relief on the
    basis of Dennis’s claim that the Commonwealth violated
    Brady when it withheld the police activity sheet containing
    Howard’s inconsistent statements.          The District Court
    concluded that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court had
    unreasonably applied Brady and its progeny in rejecting the
    Howard Brady claim. First, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    had unreasonably dismissed the impeachment value of the
    evidence and incorrectly concluded that cross-examination of
    Howard rendered new impeachment evidence immaterial.
    The District Court noted that the United States Supreme
    Court has directly rejected the notion that there can be no
    Brady claim relating to impeachment evidence where a
    witness was already impeached with other information. See
    Banks v. Dretke, 
    540 U.S. 668
    , 702 (2004) (rejecting the
    state’s argument that no Brady violation occurred because the
    witness was “heavily impeached at trial,” where the withheld
    evidence was the only impeachment evidence that the witness
    was a paid informant).15 The District Court emphasized that,
    although Howard was cross-examined at trial, she was not
    impeached. Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 514–15. Second,
    the District Court concluded that the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court had incorrectly applied a sufficiency of the evidence
    test in direct contravention of Kyles’s directive that Brady
    material be viewed in light of all of the evidence. Rather, the
    15
    The parenthetical language here is a direct quote
    from the parenthetical used by the District Court in its
    description of Banks. See Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 514–
    15.
    28
    state court should have focused on whether the defendant
    received a fair trial in the absence of the disclosed evidence.
    Id. at 516. Finally, the District Court found it unreasonable
    that the state court had failed to consider the effect of the
    evidence on trial counsel’s investigation, pretrial preparation,
    decision to interview or call certain witnesses, or the effect of
    cross-examining detectives on their investigation into
    Howard. Given that the police themselves thought it was
    important to follow up with Howard about her possible
    statements to Pugh, the District Court concluded it was clear
    that the lead was material from an investigatory point of view.
    Id.
    The District Court also concluded that the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court had failed to undertake a
    cumulative materiality analysis as required by Kyles. Id. at
    517–18. It did not rule on Dennis’s remaining claims. Id. at
    491, 501 n.19 & 510 n.27. The Commonwealth filed a timely
    notice of appeal.
    A panel of this Court issued an opinion on February 9,
    2015. Dennis v. Sec’y, Pa. Dep’t of Corr., 
    777 F.3d 642
     (3d
    Cir. 2015). This opinion was vacated and rehearing en banc
    was granted on May 6, 2015.
    II.    Jurisdiction and Standard of Review
    The District Court had jurisdiction under 
    28 U.S.C. §§ 2241
     and 2254 over Dennis’s habeas corpus petition. This
    Court has appellate jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C §§ 1291 and
    2253. The District Court based its decision on a review of the
    state court record and did not conduct an evidentiary hearing,
    so our review of its order is plenary and we apply the same
    29
    standard the District Court applied. Branch v. Sweeney, 
    758 F.3d 226
    , 232 (3d Cir. 2014); Brown v. Wenerowicz, 
    663 F.3d 619
    , 627 (3d Cir. 2011).
    The Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act
    (AEDPA) dictates the manner in which we conduct our
    review. Federal habeas courts cannot grant relief “with
    respect to any claim that was adjudicated on the merits in
    State court” unless the adjudication (1) “resulted in a decision
    that was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application
    of, clearly established Federal law, as determined by the
    Supreme Court of the United States”; or (2) “resulted in a
    decision that was based on an unreasonable determination of
    the facts in light of the evidence presented in the State court
    proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d).
    Under § 2254(d)(1), “clearly established federal law”
    means “the governing legal principle or principles set forth by
    the Supreme Court at the time the state court renders its
    decision.” Lockyer v. Andrade, 
    538 U.S. 63
    , 71–72 (2003).
    It “refers to the holdings, as opposed to the dicta, of [the
    Supreme Court’s] decisions as of the time of the relevant
    state-court decision.” Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 412
    (2000). AEDPA allows federal courts to grant habeas relief
    only if the state court decision is contrary to, or an
    unreasonable application of, clearly established federal law.
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1).
    A state court decision is “contrary to” clearly
    established federal law if the state court (1) “applies a rule
    that contradicts the governing law” set forth in Supreme
    Court precedent or (2) “confronts a set of facts that are
    materially indistinguishable from a decision of [the Supreme]
    Court and nevertheless arrives at a result different” from that
    30
    reached by the Supreme Court. Williams, 
    529 U.S. at
    405–
    06. Interpreting Supreme Court precedent in a manner that
    adds an additional element to the legal standard for proving a
    constitutional violation is “contrary to” clearly established
    federal law. 
    Id.
     at 393–94, 397 (reasoning that the Virginia
    Supreme Court’s interpretation of Strickland v. Washington,
    
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984), which increased the burden on
    petitioners, was “contrary to” Supreme Court precedent).
    A state court decision is an “unreasonable application
    of federal law” if the state court “identifies the correct
    governing legal principle,” but “unreasonably applies that
    principle to the facts of the prisoner’s case.” Id. at 413. A
    strong case for habeas relief “does not mean the state court’s
    contrary conclusion was unreasonable.”            Harrington v.
    Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 102 (2011). Habeas relief may not be
    granted on the basis that the state court applied clearly
    established law incorrectly; rather, the inquiry is “whether the
    state court’s application of clearly established federal law was
    objectively unreasonable.”       Williams, 
    529 U.S. at 409
    (emphasis added).        A rule’s unreasonable application
    corresponds to the specificity of the rule itself: “[t]he more
    general the rule, the more leeway courts have in reaching
    outcomes in case-by-case determinations.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 101
     (internal quotation marks and citation omitted). “A
    state court’s determination that a claim lacks merit precludes
    federal habeas relief so long as fairminded jurists could
    disagree on the correctness of the state court’s decision.” 
    Id.
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    Finally, under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(2), a state court
    decision is based on an “unreasonable determination of the
    facts” if the state court’s factual findings are “objectively
    31
    unreasonable in light of the evidence presented in the state-
    court proceeding,” which requires review of whether there
    was sufficient evidence to support the state court’s factual
    findings. See Miller-El v. Cockrell, 
    537 U.S. 322
    , 340
    (2003). Determinations of factual issues made by state courts
    are presumed to be correct. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (e)(1); Miller-
    El, 
    537 U.S. at 340
    . However, “[d]eference does not by
    definition preclude relief. A federal court can disagree with a
    state court’s credibility determination and, when guided by
    AEDPA, conclude the decision was unreasonable or that the
    factual premise was incorrect by clear and convincing
    evidence.” Miller-El, 
    537 U.S. at 340
    .
    Judges Fisher and Hardiman advance an interpretation
    of Richter that far exceeds its reach. Further, their approach
    would have the federal habeas courts “rewrite” state court
    opinions, as Judge Jordan’s thorough concurrence observes.
    We recognize that the AEDPA standard is “difficult to meet .
    . . because it was meant to be. As amended by AEDPA, §
    2254(d) stops short of imposing a complete bar on federal-
    court relitigation of claims already rejected in state
    proceedings.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 102
    . The highly
    deferential standard “reflects the view that habeas corpus is a
    guard against extreme malfunctions in the state criminal
    justice systems, not a substitute for ordinary error correction
    through appeal.” 
    Id.
     at 102–03 (internal quotation marks
    omitted). This level of deference stems from deep-rooted
    concerns about federalism. Williams, 
    529 U.S. at 436
     (noting
    that Congress intended to “further the principles of comity,
    finality, and federalism” in passing AEDPA). That said,
    Richter and its progeny do not support unchecked speculation
    by federal habeas courts in furtherance of AEDPA’s goals.
    While we must give state court decisions “the benefit of the
    32
    doubt,” as Judge Fisher recognizes, federal habeas review
    does not entail speculating as to what other theories could
    have supported the state court ruling when reasoning has been
    provided, or buttressing a state court’s scant analysis with
    arguments not fairly presented to it. Make no mistake about
    it, the Dissents justify the state court ruling based on an
    argument never presented to it. No case decided by our court
    or the United States Supreme Court permits this approach.
    We now write to clarify how we interpret the Supreme
    Court’s jurisprudence as to when and how federal courts
    ought to “fill the gaps” in state court opinions on federal
    habeas review subject to AEDPA.
    The United States Supreme Court has clearly laid out
    the analytical path for federal habeas courts confronted with a
    state court opinion devoid of reasoning—i.e., a bare ruling.
    When a state court decision lacks reasoning, the Supreme
    Court instructed habeas courts to “determine what arguments
    or theories supported or, as here, could have supported, the
    state court’s decision; and then it must ask whether it is
    possible fairminded jurists could disagree that those
    arguments or theories are inconsistent with the holding in a
    prior decision of this Court.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 102
    (emphasis added). Richter is that case. This is not.
    In Richter, the Court faced the question of whether
    AEDPA deference “applies when a state court’s order is
    unaccompanied by an opinion explaining the reasons relief
    has been denied.” 
    Id. at 98
    . The United States Supreme
    Court admonished the Ninth Circuit’s de novo review of the
    California Supreme Court’s one-sentence summary denial of
    petitioner’s claim under Strickland, and held that state court
    decisions that are devoid of reasoning, i.e., a bare ruling,
    33
    constitute adjudications on the merits that trigger AEDPA
    deference. Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 98
     (“[T]he habeas petitioner’s
    burden still must be met by showing there was no reasonable
    basis for the state court to deny relief. This is so whether or
    not the state court reveals which of the elements in a multipart
    claim it found insufficient . . . .”). In other words, state courts
    need not articulate a statement of reasons to invoke AEDPA
    deference by federal habeas courts. 
    Id.
     (“[D]etermining
    whether a state court’s decision resulted from an
    unreasonable legal or factual conclusion does not require that
    there be an opinion from the state court explaining the state
    court’s reasoning.”). The California Supreme Court had
    provided no reasoning; accordingly, in order to determine
    whether the state court had made a decision that was contrary
    to, or involved an unreasonable application of, clearly
    established federal law, or an unreasonable determination of
    fact, the federal habeas court was required to theorize based
    on what was presented to the state court.
    We suggest that the concept of “gap filling” is fairly
    limited. It should be reserved for those cases in which the
    federal court cannot be sure of the precise basis for the state
    court’s ruling. It permits a federal court to defer while still
    exploring the possible reasons. It does not permit a federal
    habeas court, when faced with a reasoned determination of
    the state court, to fill a non-existent “gap” by coming up with
    its own theory or argument, let alone one, as here, never
    raised to the state court. In Premo v. Moore, 
    562 U.S. 115
    (2011), decided on the same day as Richter, the state court
    had concluded that the petitioner had not received ineffective
    assistance of counsel under Strickland, but did not specify on
    which Strickland prong—performance or prejudice—
    petitioner failed to meet his burden. As in Richter, the
    34
    Supreme Court instructed the Ninth Circuit to assume “that
    both findings would have involved an unreasonable
    application of clearly established federal law.” 562 U.S. at
    123. Unsure as to which prong formed the basis for the state
    court’s ruling, the federal court could fill the gap by exploring
    the two prongs of Strickland.
    In contrast, when the state court pens a clear, reasoned
    opinion, federal habeas courts may not speculate as to
    theories that “could have supported” the state court’s
    decision. The Supreme Court established this limitation on
    Richter “gap filling” in Wetzel v. Lambert, 
    132 S. Ct. 1195
    (2012), where it described the proper analytical path for state
    court decisions accompanied by reasoning:
    Under § 2254(d), a habeas court must determine
    what arguments or theories supported . . . the
    state court’s decision; and then it must ask
    whether it is possible fairminded jurists could
    disagree that those arguments or theories are
    inconsistent with the holding in a prior decision
    of this Court.
    Id. at 1198 (quoting Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 102
    ; alterations in
    original; emphasis added). This is fairly straightforward. As
    explained above, the Court in Richter included the language
    “or, as here, could have supported” when it initially instructed
    courts on gap filling. Courts were tasked with considering
    what theories “could have supported” the state court decision
    in cases akin to those “as here,” or, summary denials.
    Removing the clause “or, as here, could have supported” from
    the instruction when the state court provides a fully-reasoned
    decision removed the task of speculative gap-filling from the
    35
    habeas court’s analysis. Instead, federal habeas courts
    reviewing reasoned state court opinions are limited to “those
    arguments or theories” that actually supported, as opposed to
    “could have supported,” the state court’s decision. The
    Supreme Court’s intent to limit deference to the state court to
    those reasons that it articulated in its opinion is further
    supported by the Supreme Court’s instruction that the court
    on remand consider whether “each ground supporting the
    state court decision is examined and found to be unreasonable
    under AEDPA.” Id. at 1199.
    When a state court ruling is based on a reasoned, but
    erroneous, analysis, federal habeas courts are empowered to
    engage in an alternate ground analysis—relying on any
    ground properly presented—but, in such a case, the federal
    court owes no deference to the state court. In Lafler v.
    Cooper, 
    132 S. Ct. 1376
     (2012), the state court had “simply
    found that respondent’s rejection of the plea was knowing and
    voluntary” in rejecting defendant’s ineffective counsel claim
    and “failed to apply Strickland,” despite referencing the
    performance and prejudice prongs of Strickland in its opinion.
    
    Id. at 1390
    . “By failing to apply Strickland to assess the
    ineffective-assistance-of-counsel claim respondent raised, the
    state court’s adjudication was contrary to clearly established
    federal law” and the Supreme Court analyzed the Strickland
    claim de novo. 
    Id. at 1390
    . The Court was not filling a gap
    in Lafler. Instead, it was employing different analysis that
    was very much a part of the case, and supplied an alternate
    ground for concluding, on de novo review, that there was no
    ineffectiveness of counsel.
    Justices of the Supreme Court have indicated in a
    concurrence from the denial of a petition for certiorari that
    36
    federal courts are bound to the text of state court opinions.
    Justice Ginsburg, joined by Justice Kagan, observed
    Richter’s hypothetical inquiry was necessary,
    however, because no state court opinion
    explained the reasons relief had been denied. In
    that circumstance, a federal habeas court can
    assess whether the state court’s decision
    involved an unreasonable application of clearly
    established Federal law only by hypothesizing
    reasons that might have supported it. But
    Richter makes clear that where the state court’s
    real reasons can be ascertained, the § 2254(d)
    analysis can and should be based on the actual
    arguments or theories that supported the state
    court’s decision.
    Hittson v. Chatman, 
    135 S. Ct. 2126
    , 2127–28, reh’g denied,
    
    136 S. Ct. 15
     (2015) (mem.) (internal quotation marks,
    alterations, and citations omitted). Other courts of appeals
    have similarly limited Richter’s gap-filling instruction to the
    bare ruling situation. See Johnson v. Sec’y, DOC, 
    643 F.3d 907
    , 910 (11th Cir. 2011) (“When faced with an ineffective
    assistance of counsel claim that was denied on the merits by
    the state courts, a federal habeas court ‘must determine what
    arguments or theories supported or, [if none were stated],
    could have supported, the state court’s decision[.]”(alterations
    in original) (quoting Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 102
    )); see also
    Grueninger v. Dir., Va. Dep’t of Corr., 
    813 F.3d 517
    , 525–26
    (4th Cir. 2016) (“looking through” a state court summary
    refusal to hear an appeal to the prior reasoned decision and
    observing that “where there is no indication of the state
    court’s reasoning, a federal habeas petitioner must show that
    37
    there was ‘no reasonable basis for the state court to deny
    relief,’ and a federal habeas court must defer under AEDPA
    to any reasonable ‘arguments or theories . . . [that] could have
    supported[ ] the state court’s decision’” (quoting Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 98, 102
    ) (internal citations omitted; alterations in
    original)); Montgomery v. Bobby, 
    654 F.3d 668
    , 700 (6th Cir.
    2011) (Clay, J., dissenting) (“If the state court articulated its
    reasons, the habeas court must identify and evaluate those
    reasons under § 2254(d); only if the state court did not
    articulate its reasons must the habeas court hypothesize as to
    the state court’s reasoning, and evaluate those hypothetical
    reasons.”).      Federal courts should only gap-fill when
    presented with a bare ruling or when it is unsure as to the
    basis of the state court ruling on the issue presented. See
    Premo, 
    562 U.S. at 123
     (concluding that when the state court
    neglected to articulate which prong of Strickland was
    deficient, the federal habeas court ought to evaluate both
    prongs of Strickland). We will not gap-fill when the state
    court has articulated its own clear reasoning. Instead, we will
    evaluate the state court’s analysis and review de novo any
    properly presented alternative ground(s) supporting its
    judgment.
    Dennis’s claims at issue on appeal stem from the
    Commonwealth’s violations of Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
     (1963). Prosecutors have an affirmative duty “to disclose
    [Brady] evidence . . . even though there has been no request
    [for the evidence] by the accused,” which may include
    evidence known only to police. Strickler v. Greene, 
    527 U.S. 263
    , 280 (1999); Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at 438
    . To comply with
    Brady, prosecutors must “learn of any favorable evidence
    known to the others acting on the government’s behalf . . .,
    38
    including the police.’’ Strickler, 
    527 U.S. at 281
     (internal
    quotation marks omitted) (quoting Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at 437
    ).
    To prove a Brady violation, a defendant must show the
    evidence at issue meets three critical elements. First, the
    evidence “must be favorable to the accused, either because it
    is exculpatory, or because it is impeaching.” 
    Id.
     at 281–82;
    see also United States v. Bagley, 
    473 U.S. 667
    , 676 (1985)
    (“Impeachment evidence . . ., as well as exculpatory
    evidence, falls within the Brady rule.”). Second, it “must
    have been suppressed by the State, either willfully or
    inadvertently.” Strickler, 
    527 U.S. at 282
    . Third, the evidence
    must have been material such that prejudice resulted from its
    suppression. Id.; see also Banks, 
    540 U.S. at 691
    . The
    “touchstone of materiality is a ‘reasonable probability’ of a
    different result.” Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at 434
    . Materiality “does
    not require demonstration by a preponderance that disclosure
    of the suppressed evidence would have resulted ultimately in
    the defendant’s acquittal . . . [Rather], [a] ‘reasonable
    probability’ of a different result is . . . shown when the
    government’s evidentiary suppression undermines confidence
    in the outcome of the trial.” 
    Id.
     (internal quotation marks
    omitted).
    III.   Discussion
    The District Court held that the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court had unreasonably applied Brady and its progeny in
    rejecting Dennis’s claims that the prosecution was required
    under Brady to disclose the Cason receipt, the Frazier
    documents, and the police activity sheet containing Howard’s
    inconsistent statements. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    issued a thorough decision on each claim. We conclude, like
    39
    the District Court, that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s
    decisions regarding Dennis’s Brady claims rested on
    unreasonable conclusions of fact and unreasonable
    applications of clearly established law, or were contrary to
    United States Supreme Court precedent. We will affirm the
    District Court and grant habeas relief on Dennis’s Brady
    claims based on the Cason receipt, the Howard police activity
    sheet, the Frazier documents, and their cumulative prejudice.
    A.     Cason Receipt
    1.     Facts
    The Commonwealth did not disclose the DPW receipt
    that was in the police’s possession, provided objective
    impeachment evidence of a key Commonwealth witness, and
    bolstered Dennis’s alibi. Cason signed the DPW receipt
    when she picked up her check on October 22, 1991, the day
    of Williams’s murder. The receipt’s time stamp shows Cason
    picked up a $94.00 payment for “public assistance” at
    “13:03,” or 1:03 p.m. During Dennis’s direct appeal, Cason
    signed an affidavit detailing her recollection of the interview
    she had with police prior to Dennis’s trial. According to
    Cason, detectives brought a copy of the time-stamped receipt
    to the interview, and she “located and gave the detective [her]
    pink copy of the same receipt. The detective kept [her] copy
    of the receipt.” App. 1735.
    The Commonwealth called Cason to testify at Dennis’s
    trial. She testified that she left work around 2:00 p.m., picked
    up her welfare check, ran errands, and saw Dennis when she
    got off the K bus “between 4:00 and 4:30.” App. 733. The
    receipt serves two functions: (1) it negates her testimony that
    40
    she worked until 2:00 p.m. on October 22; and (2) it
    demonstrates that, contrary to Cason’s testimony at trial that
    she retrieved her receipt after 3:00 p.m., Cason actually
    picked up her check at 1:03 p.m. Cason admits in her
    affidavit that she “may have thought that the 13:03, which
    was on the receipt, was 3:03 p.m.” App. 1736. In light of the
    time-stamped receipt, Cason explained in her affidavit, she
    “would have seen [James] Dennis between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m.
    at the Abbottsford Homes, and not 4:00 to 4:30 that is in my
    statement.” Id.
    2.     State Court Decision
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court rejected Dennis’s
    Brady claim stemming from the Cason receipt. The Court
    found, consistent with Cason’s affidavit, that the “police
    came into possession of a Department of Public Welfare
    (DPW) receipt showing that Cason cashed her check at 1:03
    p.m.” Dennis I, 715 A.2d at 408. In denying Dennis’s
    ineffective assistance of counsel claim, the Court held that
    Cason’s new version of events “would not support [Dennis’s]
    alibi [] because the murder occurred at 1:50 p.m., forty
    minutes earlier than Cason’s earliest estimate” of when she
    saw Dennis. Id. The Court further held that the corrected
    testimony “would have been cumulative of testimony of
    witness Willis Meredith, who testified that he saw [Dennis] at
    the Abbottsford Homes at approximately 2:15 to 2:30 p.m.”
    Id. The Court dismissed the Brady claim because the receipt
    was “not exculpatory, because it had no bearing on [Dennis’s]
    alibi, and there [was] no evidence that the Commonwealth
    withheld the receipt from the defense.” Id.
    41
    3.     AEDPA Review
    The state court ruling was a reasoned ruling that the
    District Court could understand; no gaps needed to be filled.
    Dennis was entitled to habeas relief based on the Cason
    Brady claim only if he could demonstrate that the decision
    was an unreasonable application of, or contrary to, clearly
    established law, or an unreasonable determination of the
    facts. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d). Addressing the reasoned view of
    the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, we conclude that it
    unreasonably applied Brady and its progeny in evaluating the
    Cason receipt and made unreasonable determinations of fact.
    The receipt would have served as independent documentary
    corroboration of a key witness for Dennis’s alibi defense, and
    suppression by the Commonwealth violated Brady.
    a) Favorability
    The Cason receipt provided exculpatory and
    impeachment evidence that would have bolstered Dennis’s
    alibi defense at trial, so it easily meets Brady’s first prong.
    Banks, 
    540 U.S. at 691
     (stating that both impeachment and
    exculpatory evidence satisfy the first Brady prong).
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court erred by failing to
    recognize the impeachment value of the Cason receipt, which
    would have provided documentary evidence that Cason
    testified falsely at trial. The United States Supreme Court has
    made plain that impeachment evidence may be considered
    favorable under Brady even if the jury might not afford it
    42
    significant weight. See Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at
    450–51 (rejecting
    the state’s argument that the evidence was “neither
    impeachment nor exculpatory evidence” because the jury
    might not have substantially credited it; according to the
    Court, “[s]uch [an] argument . . . confuses the weight of the
    evidence with its favorable tendency”).16
    Dennis’s defense strategy pitted his credibility, and
    that of his witnesses, against eyewitness credibility, Cason’s
    testimony, and the testimony of the other prosecution
    witnesses. No physical evidence was admitted at trial.
    Evidence that challenged Dennis’s credibility, or that of other
    defense witnesses like his father, was therefore particularly
    crucial to the outcome of the trial. As the District Court aptly
    noted:
    Armed with the receipt, Dennis’s counsel—at
    the very least—would have been able to show
    that Cason was mistaken about the timing of the
    afternoon, by pointing out that she could not
    possibly have worked until 2 p.m. since she was
    at the DPW center at 1:03 p.m. . . . The time
    stamped receipt would have directly
    contradicted [Cason’s testimony that she didn’t
    get off work until 2:00 p.m.].
    Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 508. Without evidence to
    challenge the veracity of Cason’s testimony, Dennis’s
    assertion that he saw Cason as he got off the K bus lost
    16
    This framing of Kyles was taken from Lambert v.
    Beard, 537 F. App’x 78, 86 (3d Cir. 2013).
    43
    significant credibility, as did his father’s corroboration of
    Dennis’s version of his timeline.
    Further, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court erroneously
    concluded that the receipt was not exculpatory because it did
    not affect Dennis’s alibi. Dennis I, 715 A.2d at 408. It held
    that Cason’s revised recollection of the day “would not
    support [Dennis’s] alibi [] because the murder occurred at
    1:50 p.m., forty minutes earlier than Cason’s earliest
    estimate.” Id. This conclusion fails to recognize how
    Cason’s corrected testimony corroborates testimony provided
    by Dennis and other witnesses, namely, his father.
    The Commonwealth argues that the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court reasonably concluded that the receipt did not
    require disclosure pursuant to Brady because Cason’s
    corrected testimony would not have made it impossible for
    Dennis to have been at Fern Rock station when Williams was
    murdered. Cason’s affidavit stated that she saw Dennis at
    2:30 p.m. at Abbottsford Homes. The Commonwealth
    contends that Dennis could have committed the murder at
    Fern Rock at 1:50 p.m. and returned to Abbottsford Homes
    by 2:30 p.m. because the shooter entered a waiting getaway
    car after the murder and it was a thirteen minute drive
    between the two. This view unreasonably discounts the
    buttressing effect Cason’s corrected testimony would have on
    Dennis’s alibi theory. Although Cason’s corrected testimony,
    assuming it would mirror precisely what she said in her
    affidavit, would not definitively place Dennis in a location
    where it was impossible for him to commit the murder,
    Cason’s testimony would have strengthened Dennis’s and his
    father’s testimony that Dennis had been with his father that
    afternoon and was on the bus at the time of the murder.
    44
    Validating Dennis’s and his father’s testimony about
    his alibi on the day in question is sufficient to demonstrate
    favorability under Brady. Exculpatory evidence need not
    show defendant’s innocence conclusively. Under Brady,
    “[e]xculpatory evidence includes material that goes to the
    heart of the defendant’s guilt or innocence as well as that
    which may well alter the jury’s judgment of the credibility of
    a crucial prosecution witness.” United States v. Starusko, 
    729 F.2d 256
    , 260 (3d Cir. 1984) (citing Giglio v. United States,
    
    405 U.S. 150
    , 154 (1972)). That Cason’s corrected testimony
    does not wholly undermine the prosecution’s theory of guilt
    does not sap its exculpatory value. The Commonwealth had
    an obligation to disclose the receipt under Brady because it
    would have altered the jury’s judgment about Cason’s
    credibility. Cason’s evidence is not favorable simply because
    of where Cason said she saw Dennis as corrected in her
    affidavit—at Abbottsford Homes. Rather, as Dennis argues,
    the exculpatory value lies in corroborating testimony of
    witnesses at trial who otherwise received little objective
    reinforcement, and whose credibility, as a result of Cason’s
    mistaken testimony in the absence of the receipt, was
    seriously undermined.
    The only discrepancy between Cason’s testimony and
    the alibi established by Dennis and his father was the precise
    time Cason and Dennis saw one another—Cason claimed to
    have seen Dennis around 4:00 or 4:30 p.m., while Dennis said
    it was around 2:30 p.m. As both parties note, the other
    witnesses that testified on behalf of Dennis were friends and
    family, who were vulnerable to arguments of bias. To the
    contrary, Cason offered disinterested testimony that
    corroborated the government’s theory.          Although the
    45
    Commonwealth indicates that Cason could have been
    discredited in a similar manner as Dennis’s other witnesses,
    nothing in the record indicates that Cason shared the type of
    close relationship with Dennis as other witnesses who
    testified on his behalf.
    The receipt contradicted Cason’s testimony at trial.
    Her corrected recollection, coupled with a specific
    documentary basis, would have provided disinterested
    corroboration of Dennis’s and his father’s testimony. The
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court made an unreasonable
    determination of the facts and an unreasonable application of
    federal law in refusing to acknowledge the receipt’s
    exculpatory and impeachment value.
    b) Suppression of the receipt
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court stated that “the
    police came into possession of [the] receipt” when
    interviewing Cason. Dennis I, 715 A.2d at 408. Later, in a
    section analyzing materiality, it concluded there was “no
    evidence that the Commonwealth withheld the receipt from
    the defense.” Id. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court provided
    no explanation for its latter statement, and we cannot be sure
    whether the court was assessing the facts or interpreting the
    law. If it was construing fact, it was clearly unreasonable
    because the police had the receipt and therefore so did the
    prosecution.17 See Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at
    437–38. If it was
    17
    The Commonwealth argues on appeal that the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court did not make a factual finding
    and that the statement that the police had the receipt was
    merely framing for the later substantive discussion. In Bobby
    46
    making a conclusion of law as to the duty to disclose, the
    conclusion is similarly problematic because the court ignored
    Kyles. As Judge Jordan observes in his concurrence, “[i]f one
    follows the instruction of Kyles, those two statements are
    impossible to harmonize.” J. Jordan Concurring Op. at 16.
    Once the Pennsylvania Supreme Court determined that
    the police detectives had obtained the receipt from Cason, the
    Commonwealth had constructive possession and was required
    to disclose the receipt to Dennis prior to trial. In 1995, three
    years prior to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s decision, the
    United States Supreme Court explained this duty:
    [T]he prosecution, which alone can know what
    is undisclosed, must be assigned the consequent
    responsibility to gauge the likely net effect of
    all [favorable] evidence and make disclosure
    when the point of “reasonable probability” is
    reached. This in turn means that the individual
    prosecutor has a duty to learn of any favorable
    evidence known to the others acting on the
    government’s behalf in the case, including the
    police. But whether the prosecutor succeeds or
    v. Bies, 
    556 U.S. 825
     (2009), cited in support by the
    Commonwealth, the Supreme Court held that a state court’s
    alleged factual finding could not support issue preclusion
    because there was no evidence that the alleged state court
    finding was supported by the record at trial or on appeal and
    further was not necessary to the judgments made by the state
    court. Bies bears no relation to our case where there is ample
    evidence in the record that the police took possession of the
    receipt, as attested by Cason herself.
    47
    fails in meeting this obligation (whether, that is,
    a failure to disclose is in good faith or bad
    faith), the prosecution’s responsibility for
    failing to disclose known, favorable evidence
    rising to a material level of importance is
    inescapable.
    Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at
    437–38 (internal quotation marks and
    citation omitted).     In ignoring Kyles’s instruction that
    prosecutors must disclose evidence obtained by the police, the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court unreasonably applied clearly
    established federal law. The Commonwealth’s argument that
    the receipt did not appear in the prosecution file does nothing
    to undercut its duty to disclose under Kyles and, as the
    District Court correctly notes, borders on bad faith. It
    explained:
    The Commonwealth admits that the entire
    homicide file—where one may expect a
    document recovered by the police to exist—
    went missing in March 1997, before the
    Commonwealth had submitted its direct appeal
    briefing. The Commonwealth may not point to
    a missing file and declare it the petitioner’s
    burden to prove that the receipt was, at one
    point, contained inside.
    Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 509 (citation omitted). The
    Commonwealth has never asserted that it disclosed the receipt
    to Dennis. We refuse to allow it to evade its duty under
    Brady based on failure to adequately search or maintain its
    own files.
    48
    The Commonwealth argues that because Dennis’s
    appellate counsel was able to obtain the receipt from the
    DPW nearly five years post-trial, the prosecution had no
    responsibility under Brady to turn it over to defense counsel
    when the receipt came into its possession. Judge Fisher
    adopts this approach and excuses the Commonwealth from its
    Brady responsibility by injecting an argument that was not
    even mentioned by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, much
    less fairly presented before it.
    The Commonwealth did not raise a       “due diligence”
    argument, as such, before the state court.       Rather, in its
    Response to Defendant’s Reply Brief, the       Commonwealth
    argued for the first time that there was no    Brady violation
    because the receipt was publicly available.    The entirety of
    the alleged due diligence argument is below.
    [A]lthough defendant does not explain how he
    obtained a copy of [the Cason receipt], he
    presumably did so from the Department of
    Public Welfare, thus establishing its public
    availability.    Brady does not require the
    Commonwealth to produce evidence that was
    not in its sole possession, but was available, as
    this document apparently was.
    App. 2026. As Judge Jordan observes, Pennsylvania law
    generally regards arguments raised for the first time in reply
    briefs as waived. J. Jordan Concurring Op. at 16 n.9.
    Further, our review on habeas is limited to the record
    as presented to the state court. See Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. 170
    , 181–82 (2011). There was no evidence regarding
    49
    the availability of the receipt. In fact, the Commonwealth’s
    assertion that the receipt was publicly available was incorrect,
    as it runs counter to specific Pennsylvania regulations in
    effect at the time. As they existed during Dennis’s appeal, the
    DPW’s privacy regulations protected the vast majority of
    private information; the only exception was that the
    Commonwealth may disclose “the address and amount of
    assistance a person is currently receiving” following a direct
    request about a specific person. 
    55 Pa. Code § 105.4
    (a)(1).
    Even if the DPW receives a subpoena requesting information
    about a recipient, it must challenge that demand and “plead,
    in support of its request to withhold information, that under
    the Public Welfare Code (62 P.S. §§ 101–1503), the rules of
    the Department prohibit the disclosure of information in
    records and files, including the names of clients, except as
    provided in subsection (a).” Id. § 105.4(b)(3). To the extent
    that information was publicly available regarding Cason’s
    public assistance payments, it was limited to Cason’s address
    and her amount of assistance, which is irrelevant to her
    interaction with Dennis on the day of Williams’s murder.
    Only the Commonwealth held information that would support
    Dennis’s alibi—the time-stamped receipt Cason provided to
    the police.
    Even if we were to imagine that a diligence argument
    was presented and considered by the state court, the United
    States Supreme Court has never recognized an affirmative
    due diligence duty of defense counsel as part of Brady, let
    alone an exception to the mandate of Brady as this would
    clearly be. The Supreme Court has noted that its precedent
    “lend[s] no support to the notion that defendants must
    scavenge for hints of undisclosed Brady material when the
    prosecution represents that all such material has been
    50
    disclosed.” Banks, 
    540 U.S. at 695
    . To the contrary, defense
    counsel is entitled to presume that prosecutors have
    “discharged their official duties.” 
    Id. at 696
     (quoting Bracy v.
    Gramley, 
    520 U.S. 899
    , 909 (1997)). Further, the duty to
    disclose under Brady is absolute—it does not depend on
    defense counsel’s actions. United States v. Agurs, 
    427 U.S. 97
    , 107 (1976) (“[I]f the evidence is so clearly supportive of a
    claim of innocence that it gives the prosecution notice of a
    duty to produce, that duty should equally arise even if no
    request is made.”). Brady’s mandate and its progeny are
    entirely focused on prosecutorial disclosure, not defense
    counsel’s diligence.
    The emphasis in the United States Supreme Court’s
    Brady jurisprudence on fairness in criminal trials reflects
    Brady’s concern with the government’s unquestionable
    advantage in criminal proceedings, which the Court has
    explicitly recognized. See, e.g., Strickler, 
    527 U.S. at 281
    (reasoning that the “special status” of the prosecutor in the
    American legal system, whose interest “in a criminal
    prosecution is not that [he] shall win a case, but that justice
    shall be done . . . explains . . . the basis for the prosecution’s
    broad duty of disclosure” (quoting Berger v. United States,
    
    295 U.S. 78
    , 88 (1935)). Construing Brady in a manner that
    encourages disclosure reflects the Court’s concern with
    prosecutorial advantage and prevents shifting the burden onto
    defense counsel to defend his actions.              Requiring an
    undefined quantum of diligence on the part of defense
    counsel, however, would enable precisely that result—it
    would dilute Brady’s equalizing impact on prosecutorial
    advantage by shifting the burden to satisfy the claim onto
    defense counsel.
    51
    The focus on disclosure by the prosecutor, not
    diligence by defense, is reiterated in the Supreme Court’s
    approval of the shift in the traditional adversarial system
    Brady imposes. In United States v. Bagley, the Court
    explained that “[b]y requiring the prosecutor to assist the
    defense in making its case, the Brady rule represents a limited
    departure from a pure adversary model” because the
    prosecutor is not tasked simply with winning a case, but
    ensuring justice. 
    473 U.S. 667
    , 675 n.6 (1985). Further, the
    Court placed the burden of obtaining favorable evidence
    squarely on the prosecutor’s shoulders. See Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at 437
     (“[T]he individual prosecutor has a duty to learn of any
    favorable evidence known to the others acting on the
    government’s behalf in the case.”). That the government may
    be burdened by the Brady rule does not undercut its need to
    comply with it. The imposition of an affirmative due
    diligence requirement on defense counsel would erode the
    prosecutor’s obligation under, and the basis for, Brady itself.
    Indeed, the United States Supreme Court has cautioned
    against such a rule. It has rejected the notion that defense
    counsel’s diligence is relevant in assessing “cause” for the
    failure to raise a Brady suppression issue in state court
    proceedings. In Strickler, it reasoned that because counsel
    was entitled to rely on the prosecutor fulfilling its Brady
    obligation, and had no reason for believing it had failed to
    comply, the failure to raise the issue earlier in habeas
    proceedings was justified. See Strickler, 
    527 U.S. at
    286–89.
    Similarly here, the prosecutor’s duty is clear. Dennis’s
    counsel was entitled to rely on the prosecutor’s duty to turn
    52
    over exculpatory evidence.18 Assessing whether he could or
    should have discovered the receipt is beside the point.19
    In Banks, the Supreme Court explicitly rejected the
    notion that “the prosecution can lie and conceal and the
    prisoner still has the burden to . . . discover the evidence, so
    long as the potential existence of a prosecutorial misconduct
    claim might have been detected.” 
    540 U.S. at 696
     (internal
    quotation marks and citations omitted). Banks concluded that
    “[a] rule . . . declaring ‘prosecutor may hide, defendant must
    seek,’ is not tenable in a system constitutionally bound to
    accord defendants due process.” Id.; see also United States v.
    Tavera, 
    719 F.3d 705
    , 712 (6th Cir. 2013) (recognizing that
    “the clear holding in Banks” does away with any belief that
    Brady imposes a due diligence requirement on defense
    counsel); Bell v. Bell, 
    512 F.3d 223
    , 242 (6th Cir. 2008)
    (Clay, J., dissenting) (“The rule emerging from Strickler and
    Banks is clear: Where the prosecution makes an affirmative
    18
    Dennis’s trial counsel asserted in an affidavit he “did
    not specifically request a copy of the welfare check receipt
    from the Commonwealth, because [he] did not know of its
    existence,” but he had “[b]y formal motion . . . request[ed] all
    exculpatory evidence be produced.” App. 1725.
    19
    The Tenth Circuit and the D.C. Circuit agree that
    defense counsel’s knowledge is not at issue in Brady. Banks
    v. Reynolds, 
    54 F.3d 1508
    , 1517 (10th Cir. 1995) (“[T]he
    prosecution’s obligation to turn over the evidence in the first
    instance stands independent of the defendant's knowledge. . . .
    The only relevant inquiry is whether the information was
    exculpatory.” (internal quotation marks omitted)); accord In
    re Sealed Case, 
    185 F.3d 887
    , 896–97 (D.C. Cir. 1999).
    53
    representation that no Brady material exists, but in fact has
    Brady material in its possession, the petitioner will not be
    penalized for failing to discover that material.”).
    While we think that the United States Supreme Court
    has made it clear that Brady requires the prosecution to turn
    over all material favorable evidence in its possession, we
    acknowledge that it is not totally frivolous under our Third
    Circuit jurisprudence for the Commonwealth to have argued,
    as it did here, that because defense counsel could or should
    have discovered the Cason receipt with due diligence, the
    prosecution was not required to disclose it.20 That is because
    our case law, as we discuss below, is inconsistent and could
    easily confuse. Thus, we need to clarify our position: the
    concept of “due diligence” plays no role in the Brady
    analysis.21 To the contrary, the focus of the Supreme Court
    20
    Surprisingly, several courts of appeals have
    endorsed some form of a due diligence requirement. For a
    comprehensive overview of common features of the diligence
    rule and where it emerged, see Kate Weisburd, Prosecutors
    Hide, Defendants Seek: The Erosion of Brady Through the
    Defendant Due Diligence Rule, 
    60 UCLA L. Rev. 138
    , 141,
    147–56 (2012). Common features include that the evidence
    was equally available to the prosecution and the defense, that
    the evidence was known by the defendant, and that the
    relevant facts were accessible by the defendant. 
    Id.
     at 153–
    56.
    21
    The Second Circuit also recently recognized in a
    habeas case that “[t]he [United States] Supreme Court has
    never required a defendant to exercise due diligence to obtain
    Brady material.” See Lewis v. Conn. Comm’r of Corr., 790
    54
    has been, and it must always be, on whether the government
    has unfairly “suppressed” the evidence in question in
    derogation of its duty of disclosure. See Gov’t of the V.I. v.
    Mills, 
    821 F.3d 448
    , 460 n.10 (3d Cir. 2016) (“The critical
    question in assessing constitutional error is to what extent a
    defendant’s rights were violated, not the culpability of the
    prosecutor.” (quoting Marshall v. Hendricks, 
    307 F.3d 36
    , 68
    (3d Cir. 2002)).
    In Brady, the United States Supreme Court held “that
    the suppression by the prosecution of evidence favorable to
    an accused upon request violates due process where the
    evidence is material either to guilt or to punishment,
    irrespective of the good faith or bad faith of the prosecution.”
    Brady, 
    373 U.S. at 87
     (emphasis added). Suppression is
    “[t]he prosecution’s withholding from the defense of evidence
    that is favorable to the defendant.” Suppression of Evidence,
    Black’s Law Dictionary (10th ed. 2014). Inquiries into
    prosecutorial suppression are, by nature, retrospective as to
    the actions of the prosecutor—they do not place affirmative
    duties on defense counsel pre-trial. Agurs, 
    427 U.S. at 108
    (“[T]he prosecutor will not have violated his constitutional
    duty of disclosure unless his omission is of sufficient
    significance to result in the denial of the defendant’s right to a
    fair trial.”).
    The government must disclose all favorable evidence.
    Only when the government is aware that the defense counsel
    already has the material in its possession should it be held to
    F.3d 109, 121 (2d Cir. 2015). It retained its test for when
    evidence is not “suppressed” for Brady purposes, however.
    
    Id.
    55
    not have “suppressed” it in not turning it over to the defense.
    Any other rule presents too slippery a slope. In United States
    v. Perdomo, 
    929 F.2d 967
    , 973 (3d Cir. 1991), and United
    States v. Starusko, 
    729 F.2d 256
    , 262 (3d Cir. 1984), we
    opened the door to a due diligence exception to Brady.
    Starusko, 
    729 F.2d at 262
     (“‘[T]he government is not obliged
    under Brady to furnish a defendant with information which he
    already has or, with any reasonable diligence, he can obtain
    himself.’” (quoting United States v. Campagnuolo, 
    592 F.2d 852
    , 861 (5th Cir.1979))). In Grant v. Lockett, 
    709 F.3d 224
    ,
    230–31 (3d Cir. 2013), we may have widened that opening
    when we combined our conclusion that defense counsel was
    constitutionally ineffective in violation of the defendant’s
    rights with a finding that there was no Brady violation
    because counsel clearly should have discovered the
    prosecutor’s key witness’s criminal record and been aware
    that he was on parole when the shooting occurred and when
    he testified at trial. We did note in Grant that Grant himself
    had obtained the witness’s criminal records while in custody,
    but we did not rest our ruling on that fact.
    In Wilson v. Beard, 
    589 F.3d 651
    , 663–64 (3d Cir.
    2009), we got it right. There we concluded that “[i]f the
    prosecution has the obligation, pursuant to Perdomo, to notify
    defense counsel that a government witness has a criminal
    record even when that witness was represented by someone in
    defense counsel’s office, the fact that a criminal record is a
    public document cannot absolve the prosecutor of her
    responsibility to provide that record to defense counsel.” 
    Id.
    (emphasis added) (internal quotation marks and citations
    omitted). Thus, we held that a criminal record, which
    arguably could have been discovered by defense counsel, is
    suppressed if not disclosed. Defense counsel in Wilson
    56
    certainly had the ability to obtain the alleged Brady
    material—a criminal record—by virtue of his legal training.
    Yet we required disclosure pursuant to Brady. We also got it
    right in Pelullo when we rejected defendant’s argument that
    certain documents were Brady material and somehow
    “suppressed” when the government had made the materials
    available for inspection and they were defendant’s own
    documents. Pelullo, 
    399 F.3d at 212
     (“[T]he government
    repeatedly made the warehouse documents available to [the
    defendant] and his attorneys for inspection and copying.”).
    To the extent that we have considered defense
    counsel’s purported obligation to exercise due diligence to
    excuse the government’s non-disclosure of material
    exculpatory evidence, we reject that concept as an
    unwarranted dilution of Brady’s clear mandate. Subjective
    speculation as to defense counsel’s knowledge or access may
    be inaccurate, and it breathes uncertainty into an area that
    should be certain and sure. See Weisburd, supra, at 164
    (“[P]rosecutors . . . cannot accurately speculate about what a
    defendant or defense lawyer could discover through due
    diligence. Prosecutors are not privy to the investigation plan
    or the investigative resources of any given defendant or
    defense lawyer.”). The United States Supreme Court agrees.
    It has recognized that ample disclosure is “as it should be”
    because it “tend[s] to preserve the criminal trial, as distinct
    from the prosecutor’s private deliberations, as the chosen
    forum for ascertaining the truth about criminal accusations. . .
    . The prudence of the careful prosecutor should not therefore
    be discouraged.” Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at
    439–40 (internal
    citations omitted).
    57
    All favorable material ought to be disclosed by the
    prosecution. To hold otherwise would, in essence, add a
    fourth prong to the inquiry, contrary to the Supreme Court’s
    directive that we are not to do so. In Williams v. Taylor, the
    Virginia Supreme Court had interpreted the Supreme Court’s
    decision in Lockhart v. Fretwell, 
    506 U.S. 364
    , 369 (1993)
    “to require a separate inquiry into fundamental fairness even
    when [petitioner] [was] able to show that his lawyer was
    ineffective and that his ineffectiveness probably affected the
    outcome of the proceeding.” 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 393 (2000). The
    Court held that the Virginia Supreme Court’s imposition of
    this additional test was an unreasonable application of, and
    contrary to, Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984).
    Williams, 
    529 U.S. at
    393–94. Adding due diligence, whether
    framed as an affirmative requirement of defense counsel or as
    an exception from the prosecutor’s duty, to the well-
    established three-pronged Brady inquiry would similarly be
    an unreasonable application of, and contrary to, Brady and its
    progeny.
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s conclusion that the
    prosecution did not withhold the Cason receipt was an
    unreasonable application of law and fact. The receipt was in
    its possession pursuant to Kyles and, under United States
    Supreme Court precedent, it is clear that there is no additional
    prong to Brady and no “hide and seek” exception depending
    on defense counsel’s knowledge or diligence. See Banks, 
    540 U.S. at 696
    .
    c) Materiality
    Without a doubt, Dennis suffered prejudice due to the
    Commonwealth’s failure to disclose the receipt. The defense
    58
    strategy was rooted in Dennis’s alibi that he was getting on
    the K bus at the time of the murder. The Commonwealth’s
    withholding of the receipt transformed a witness who would
    otherwise have been an alibi witness for Dennis into a witness
    for the prosecution or, at least, left Dennis powerless to
    impeach Cason’s false testimony if offered by the
    prosecution. The state court’s conclusion that Dennis
    suffered no prejudice is an unreasonable determination of fact
    and law.
    Failure to disclose the Cason receipt made testimony
    by a key government witness, who provided the sole
    testimony contradicting Dennis’s alibi, unassailable. The
    Commonwealth highlighted how weighty Cason’s testimony
    was at trial. In his opening, referring to Cason as simply a
    “lady from the neighborhood,” ADA King emphasized the
    discrepancy between Cason’s and Dennis’s testimony:
    “[Cason] had something very interesting to say. Yeah, I saw
    him when I was on the bus, but it wasn’t 2:00, it was 4:00.”
    App. 404. At closing, King reiterated the inconsistencies
    between Cason’s and Dennis’s testimony, and added that
    “[the Commonwealth] called her, not the defense. She came
    in and said, I was at work at 2:00. I saw him somewhere
    between 4:00 and 4:30. Try again, Jimmy. That one didn’t
    work.” App. 1209. Disclosure of the receipt would have
    given defense counsel evidence to demonstrate that Cason
    falsely testified when she asserted that she worked until 2:00
    p.m. on October 22. Disclosure would have allowed defense
    counsel to undermine Cason’s credibility or would have
    caused her to correct her testimony—as she did later in an
    affidavit—so as to support Dennis’s version of events.
    Impeachment using the receipt may have caused Cason to
    explain to the jury that her prior testimony rested on a
    59
    misunderstanding of military time and allowed Cason to
    correct her timeline during trial. More likely, the prosecution
    would not have called Cason at all, and Dennis would have
    called Cason to corroborate his testimony.22 Finally, ADA
    King would not have, at closing, been able to point out the
    inconsistencies between Dennis’s and Cason’s testimonies.
    Cason’s uncorrected testimony left the jury with
    conflicting stories as to Dennis and Cason’s interactions on
    the day of the murder. Following Cason’s testimony that she
    could not have seen Dennis between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m.,
    Dennis qualified his trial testimony and said that he only
    “thought” he saw Cason. App. 1030. During closing,
    Dennis’s counsel told the jury, “Remember what [Dennis]
    told you when he got up there? It’s wrong. He didn’t see
    [Cason] on the bus. He thought he saw her on the bus, but he
    didn’t.” App. 1179–80. The District Court thoughtfully
    explained how Dennis’s uncorrected testimony damaged
    defense counsel’s strategy:
    This scrambled explanation left the jury with
    two options, equally unhelpful to Dennis:
    believe that Cason and Dennis had seen each
    other on the bus, as both testified, but that it
    happened later than Dennis said—and therefore
    find no alibi for the time of the crime; or believe
    counsel’s new story that Dennis was on the
    earlier bus, and thus could not have committed
    22
    The Commonwealth concedes that if it had the
    receipt, Cason would have provided little value to the
    prosecution and they would not have called her. Indeed,
    Dennis probably would have.
    60
    the crime, but never saw Cason at all. Cason’s
    corrected testimony would have transformed
    Cason from a damaging Commonwealth
    witness to a uniquely powerful, disinterested
    defense witness who would provide document-
    supported corroboration for Dennis’[s] alibi. . . .
    Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 512. The impeachment value
    the receipt provided would have eliminated the conflicting
    stories for the jury and, given the weight of Cason’s
    testimony alleged by the prosecution at trial, could have
    raised significant doubt about Dennis’s guilt. The state
    court’s determination that Dennis did not suffer prejudice as a
    result of Cason’s unchallenged testimony was unreasonable.
    In concluding that the Commonwealth had evidence that its
    witness’s testimony was false, we need not reach whether the
    prosecutors here intentionally presented false evidence
    because the inquiry is solely the impact that the absence of
    evidence had on the trial. See Brady, 
    373 U.S. at 87
    ; Mills,
    821 F.3d at 460 n.10.
    In Banks, the United States Supreme Court
    admonished prosecutors for letting statements by an
    informant, which they believed to be false, stand uncorrected
    throughout the proceedings. The Court concluded that
    “prosecutors represented at trial and in state postconviction
    proceedings that the State had held nothing back . . . It was
    not incumbent on Banks to prove these representations false;
    rather, Banks was entitled to treat the prosecutor’s
    submissions as truthful.” 
    540 U.S. at 698
    . Earlier Brady
    cases indicate similar concern for allowing false testimony.
    See, e.g., Agurs, 
    427 U.S. at 103
     (“[C]onviction obtained by
    the knowing use of perjured testimony is fundamentally
    61
    unfair, and must be set aside if there is any reasonable
    likelihood that the false testimony could have affected the
    judgment of the jury.”) (footnotes omitted). Letting Cason’s
    testimony stand when the Commonwealth had evidence it
    was false unquestionably violated Brady and entitles Dennis
    to a new trial.
    The state court took an unreasonably narrow view of
    Brady materiality by focusing on the fact that Cason would
    only have been able to say that she saw him around 2:30 p.m.
    Cason’s testimony need not fully corroborate Dennis’s alibi
    in order to show materiality under Brady. Kyles explained
    that Brady materiality does not turn on a determination of the
    sufficiency of the evidence, but instead requires the court to
    consider the constitutional error in light of all the evidence to
    determine whether it “put[s] the whole case in such a
    different light as to undermine confidence in the verdict.”
    
    514 U.S. at 435
    . Transforming Cason, a disinterested
    individual with documentary support, into a defense witness
    meets the requirements of Brady materiality because it would
    have necessarily bolstered Dennis’s alibi defense narrative
    and “put the whole case in . . . a different light.” 
    Id.
    Dennis testified that his father drove him to the bus
    stop around 1:50 p.m., where he boarded the K bus. Dennis
    asserted in his statement to police, which was read into the
    record at trial, that he waved at Cason when “we got off” the
    K bus at Abbottsford Homes, a trip that generally took about
    thirty minutes. App. 710 (emphasis added). Dennis’s
    statement implies that they rode the K bus together and,
    setting aside the difference in timelines, Cason’s testimony
    aligns with his account since Cason also took the K bus to
    Abbottsford Homes and saw Dennis there after she
    62
    disembarked. Regardless of whether the receipt would have
    refreshed Cason’s memory enough to cause her to testify that
    she and Dennis were on the 1:56 p.m. K bus together, it
    certainly would have empowered defense counsel to elicit
    testimony from Cason that the location in which she saw
    Dennis was consistent with her exiting the bus at the same
    time he did and to acknowledge that even if she did not notice
    him on the bus, she had no reason to disbelieve that he was
    there.
    Cason, unlike the other witnesses Dennis called, did
    not know him well. Cason testified that she knew Dennis, but
    when ADA King asked her how long she had known him,
    Cason replied, “I don’t really, you know, know him, I know
    him by living up my way” at Abbottsford Homes. App. 731.
    Because Cason simply knew Dennis from the neighborhood,
    she served as a significantly less interested witness compared
    to Dennis’s other testifying witnesses, who were all close
    friends, family, and church leaders. As a result, she was less
    vulnerable to accusations of bias, and her testimony in
    support would have carried more weight with the jury. This
    is particularly important given the nature of her testimony
    compared to Dennis’s other witnesses. Unlike Dennis’s other
    witnesses, Cason’s testimony would have been supported by
    documentary proof of her timeline, the time-stamped receipt,
    to provide independent credibility to her testimony. In light
    of the receipt, Cason’s testimony on Dennis’s behalf would
    have been doubly strong—she was disinterested, and the
    receipt provided documentary corroboration for her version of
    the events. 23
    The Commonwealth argues that Cason’s testimony
    23
    would be duplicative of Willis Meredith’s non-alibi
    63
    The Commonwealth criticizes the District Court’s
    analysis of the Cason receipt Brady claim as a
    misinterpretation of the record. Primarily, this critique rests
    on the District Court’s conclusion that the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court “overlook[ed] the fact that both Cason and
    Dennis testified that they saw each other on the bus.” Dennis
    V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 511. While it is true that Cason did not
    testify at trial that she saw Dennis on the K bus, nor did she
    deny it, and the Commonwealth’s failure to turn over the
    receipt deprived defense counsel of the opportunity to refresh
    Cason’s memory with the receipt or at least elicit that she saw
    Dennis immediately upon exiting the bus, thereby
    corroborating that they exited at the same location. Given
    that her unrefreshed testimony put the encounter after 4:00
    p.m., defense counsel had no reason to elicit such testimony.
    But whether Cason testified that she saw Dennis on the bus or
    disembarking the bus, such testimony would have reinforced
    Dennis’s own testimony that he was on the bus and placed
    him in a location that would have made it practically
    impossible for him to murder Williams. Brady, therefore,
    required that the Commonwealth disclose the receipt.
    testimony. Willis Meredith, a friend of Dennis’s, testified that
    he saw Dennis at Abbottsford Homes around 2:30 p.m.
    Cason’s testimony is not cumulative for two reasons: (1)
    Willis, like Dennis’s other witnesses, was a friend and open
    to accusations of bias from the prosecution; and (2) Cason’s
    testimony was corroborated by independent documentary
    evidence. So, even if her testimony simply placed Dennis at
    Abbottsford Homes around 2:30, it did so with more
    evidentiary weight than Meredith’s.
    64
    At minimum, Cason’s time-stamped receipt would
    have empowered defense counsel to effectively impeach one
    of the Commonwealth’s strongest witnesses and mitigated the
    devastating effect of her testimony on Dennis’s credibility
    and his father’s. At most, the Commonwealth’s case would
    have been short one witness, and Dennis’s alibi defense
    strategy would have been doubly strong due to (1) Cason’s
    status as a disinterested defense witness with the documentary
    corroboration and (2) the resulting increase in Dennis’s and
    his father’s credibility. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court was
    therefore unreasonable in concluding that the receipt was not
    favorable to Dennis when it would have bolstered his alibi. It
    was unreasonable in concluding that there was “no evidence”
    that the Commonwealth had suppressed the receipt when the
    state court found that detectives had the receipt in their
    possession. And finally, it was unreasonable in concluding
    that the receipt was not material. Had the Commonwealth
    disclosed the receipt, the jury may well have credited
    Dennis’s alibi defense.
    B.     Howard Police Activity Sheet
    1.     Facts
    A suppressed police activity sheet reveals that two
    days after Williams’s murder, Zahra Howard, an eyewitness
    and key witness for the Commonwealth at trial, made a
    statement to Williams’s aunt and uncle, Dianne and
    Mannasett Pugh, that was inconsistent with an earlier
    statement she had made to police. Shortly after the murder,
    Howard told police that she did not recognize the shooter
    from school. The Pughs told police, however, that Howard
    told them the day after the murder that she knew the
    65
    perpetrators from Olney High School, and that “Kim” and
    “Quinton” were at the scene when the shooting occurred.
    App. 1506. Quinton was Dianne Pugh’s nephew. The police
    indicated in their “THINGS TO DO” list that they intended to
    speak with the Pughs again and “[i]nterview Zahra Howard
    again” in light of her inconsistent statement to the Pughs.
    App. 1507. When police met with Howard the following day,
    however, they did not ask Howard about her conversation
    with the Pughs.
    2.     State court decision
    The     Pennsylvania    Supreme     Court    initially
    characterized Dennis’s Brady claim regarding Howard’s
    inconsistent statement as one “with at least arguable merit.”
    Dennis III, 950 A.2d at 969. But the court was not prepared
    to rule on the record before it, and it remanded the Howard
    Brady claim to the PCRA court to address that claim in the
    first instance. Id.
    The PCRA court rejected the Brady claim following an
    evidentiary hearing. The District Court aptly summarized the
    PCRA hearing and decision by the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court:
    Dennis sought to argue the merits of the Brady
    claim on the papers; he objected to the
    introduction of evidence from Howard and
    Diane Pugh because, he argued, their
    recollections now, a decade after the trial, about
    who the shooter was or what they told the
    police had no relevance on the question of
    whether the Commonwealth had violated Brady
    66
    by failing to disclose the activity sheet.   As
    Dennis’s PCRA counsel told the court:
    The testimony has to be evaluated
    in its trial context. And all we can
    do at this point is put on paper for
    the court what we expect the
    impeachment to have been,
    assuming, for example, Zahra
    Howard denies having made the
    statement.          We have to
    demonstrate on paper how she
    could have been impeached, and
    how that evidence relates to other
    evidence in the case. . . . Her
    testimony today about what she
    remembers from 16 years ago we
    can cross-examine, but it doesn’t
    illuminate the question of
    materiality in the context of the
    trial.
    NT 12/22/08 at 15. The court allowed the
    testimony over Dennis’s objections.         As
    expected, both Howard and Pugh denied that
    Howard had ever suggested that she recognized
    the assailants. Pugh’s testimony should not
    carry much weight, however, given that she
    declared before she was even sworn in, “I don’t
    remember nothing, nothing at all. It’s been 15,
    16 years so I don't remember. They just
    subpoenaed me and I’m here.” Id. at 56.
    67
    The PCRA court ultimately rejected the
    Brady claim. It noted that, during the hearing,
    Howard “testified credibly that she did not
    know the appellant from Olney High School,
    nor had she seen him prior to the murder.”
    Commonwealth v. Dennis, Case No. 92–01–
    0484, slip op. (Pa.Ct.Com.Pl. Mar. 17, 2010), at
    13. Although the question whether Howard
    recognized James Dennis (“the appellant”) or
    had seen him before the murder is entirely
    irrelevant to whether she told Diane Pugh that
    she had seen the shooter before the murder, this
    is, in fact, the entirety of the testimony that the
    Commonwealth elicited from Howard at the
    PCRA hearing:
    Q: And in that conversation [with
    Diane Pugh] did you ever say
    anything about recognizing the
    defendant before?
    A: No.
    Q: Did you ever see the defendant
    at Olney High School?
    A: No.
    Q: Did you ever see him around
    Olney High School?
    A: No.
    NT 12/22/08 at 18. On cross, when Dennis’s
    lawyer asked her about whether she said she
    had ever seen the shooter before, or whether she
    had ever told anyone she recognized the shooter
    from Olney High School, Howard denied
    68
    recognizing the shooter or having ever said she
    did. Id. at 25–27.
    Given both trial and PCRA counsel’s
    thorough cross-examination of Howard, the
    PCRA court determined that it was “unlikely
    that any additional impeachment evidence
    contained in the police activity sheet . . . would
    have created a reasonable probability that the
    result of the proceeding would have been
    different had it been disclosed.” Dennis, slip
    op. at 14. The court further noted that the
    government’s case at trial “did not rest solely
    on” Howard’s testimony. Id. Finally, the
    contents of the activity sheet amounted to
    inadmissible hearsay, which “cannot be the
    basis for a Brady violation.” Id. at 15.
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court largely
    accepted the PCRA court’s determinations,
    despite its seeming recognition, in Dennis III, of
    the investigatory value the activity sheet would
    have had and its earlier dismissal of the
    admissibility issue. It agreed that Dennis had
    failed to prove a reasonable probability of a
    different result had the activity sheet been
    disclosed. Commonwealth v. Dennis, 
    609 Pa. 442
    , 
    17 A.3d 297
    , 309 (2011) (“Dennis IV”). It
    echoed the PCRA court in noting that “Howard
    was extensively cross-examined by defense
    counsel in an attempt to impeach her testimony
    during trial,” and that “there were two
    eyewitnesses other than Howard” who
    69
    identified Dennis; “[t]he disclosure of the
    activity sheet would have had no impact upon
    these eyewitnesses’ testimony.” 
    Id.
     It did not
    specifically   address    the   question    of
    admissibility.
    Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 513–14.
    3.    AEDPA Review
    There is no question that Howard’s inconsistent
    statement would have been helpful to the defense but was not
    revealed to defense counsel until PCRA discovery, ten years
    after trial. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court denied Dennis’s
    Brady claim regarding the Howard statement on materiality
    grounds. Although the court articulated the proper standard
    for materiality, whether a “reasonable probability” of a
    different outcome has been established, it applied Kyles in a
    manner inconsistent with Supreme Court precedent.
    First and foremost, defense counsel could have used
    Howard’s inconsistent statement as an effective means of
    impeachment during trial. As noted above, impeachment
    evidence unquestionably falls under Brady’s purview and
    cannot be suppressed by the prosecution.                  The
    Commonwealth notes that evidence is not necessarily
    material under Brady simply because it may open up avenues
    for impeachment—the focus of the inquiry is on the
    “reasonable probability of a different result” under Kyles.
    Such a probability exists here. The type of impeachment
    evidence provided by the activity sheet would have undercut
    the credibility of a key prosecution witness in a manner not
    duplicated by other challenges the defense was able to level at
    70
    trial. Consequently, the impeachment material provided by
    the suppressed activity sheet is material under Brady, and it
    was unreasonable for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to
    hold otherwise.
    Howard was the Commonwealth’s key eyewitness
    against Dennis and the Commonwealth accordingly
    highlighted her testimony. ADA King emphasized the
    importance of Howard’s testimony in his closing argument:
    “[I]f you believe Zahra Howard, that’s enough to convict
    James Dennis.” App. 1207. As Williams’s friend and the
    person with the closest view of the shooter, Howard’s
    testimony carried significant emotional and practical weight
    with the jury. 24
    Unlike other testifying eyewitnesses, Howard had
    views of the perpetrator at numerous stages during the
    incident. At trial, Howard testified that she saw the shooter
    24
    Howard’s testimony undoubtedly bore more
    emotional weight with the jury than the other eyewitness
    testimony presented at trial due to Howard’s close friendship
    with the victim. Because of Howard’s personal connection
    with, and physical proximity to, Williams at the time of her
    murder, stress may have played a particularly damaging role
    in the strength of her identification. Chief Judge McKee
    explains in his concurrence that that stress may impair a
    witness’s identifications. J. McKee Concurring Op. at 29–31.
    Here, the identification that the Commonwealth so
    confidently framed as sufficient to support Dennis’s
    conviction may have suffered the greatest from the effect of
    stress.
    71
    for approximately twenty seconds total. This comported with
    her testimony at the preliminary hearing. The two other
    testifying eyewitnesses’ views were much briefer. Bertha
    testified at the preliminary hearing that he saw the assailant
    for about a second. At trial, he expanded the amount of time
    he said he saw the shooter to three or four seconds. Cameron
    initially testified at the preliminary hearing that he saw the
    assailant for twenty seconds but upped the amount of time to
    thirty to forty seconds at trial. Notably, Cameron qualified
    his testimony by admitting that he “didn’t really pay
    attention.”
    25 App. 664
    . In contrast to Bertha and Cameron’s,
    Howard’s testimony was consistent, lengthy, and involved
    numerous views of the assailant—on the subway stairs,
    during the face-to-face encounter and finally, when Williams
    was shot. Because of the consistency and emotional weight
    of Howard’s testimony, defense counsel’s strategy was
    heavily reliant on impeaching Howard by any means—
    counsel attempted to “discredit her any . . . way [he] could.”
    App. 1326.
    25
    Judge Fisher concedes that Bertha and Cameron may
    not have been paying attention during the incident, but urges
    that “the gunshot focused their view and spurred them into
    action.” J. Fisher Dissent Op. at 21. As Chief Judge
    McKee’s concurrence highlights, however, the presence of a
    weapon at a crime scene “has a consistently negative impact
    on both feature recall accuracy and identification accuracy.”
    J. McKee Concurring Op. at 32. Here, the gunshot may have
    startled Bertha and Cameron to attention, but research
    demonstrates that the accuracy of their recollection of the
    perpetrators would have been reduced, not amplified, by the
    presence of the silver handgun.
    72
    Counsel’s ability to discredit Howard was limited,
    however. Without evidence that would directly contradict
    Howard’s testimony at trial, defense counsel sought to
    discredit Howard by pointing out her initial hesitation in
    identifying Dennis as the perpetrator during the photo array.
    Counsel could not challenge Howard’s trial testimony on
    other grounds. But prosecutors held contradictory statements
    by Howard about whether she recognized the perpetrators.
    Howard had initially told police, and later testified at trial,
    that she had never seen the perpetrators before and had not
    recognized them from school. According to the Pughs,
    however, Howard had said she recognized the shooter from
    Olney High School. The Pughs (along with Parker) also
    stated that Howard had also identified two other individuals,
    Kim and Quinton, as being present at the scene.
    As noted by the District Court, cross-examination does
    not equate to actual impeachment. Defense counsel cross-
    examined Howard, but he could only engage in limited
    questioning focused on challenging her hesitation
    identifications of Dennis as the shooter. This is decidedly
    different from the actual impeachment enabled by the activity
    sheet. In Banks, a witness was heavily impeached at trial, but
    the prosecution suppressed evidence that the witness served
    as a paid informant. 
    540 U.S. at 702
    . Accordingly, none of
    the impeachment conducted at trial covered his status as an
    informant; the jury weighed his credibility without knowing
    this. 
    Id.
     at 702–03. The Supreme Court rejected the state’s
    argument that because the witness was heavily impeached,
    further impeachment evidence was immaterial. 
    Id. at 702
    .
    We have similarly indicated that additional impeachment
    evidence helps to substantiate Brady claims in a way that
    might make them material. In Lambert v. Beard, we stated
    73
    that “it is patently unreasonable to presume—without
    explanation—that whenever a witness is impeached in one
    manner, any other impeachment becomes immaterial.” 
    633 F.3d 126
    , 134 (3d Cir. 2011), judgment vacated on other
    grounds sub nom. Wetzel v. Lambert, 
    132 S. Ct. 1195
     (2012).
    The mere fact that a witness has been heavily cross-examined
    or impeached at trial does not preclude a determination that
    additional impeachment evidence is material under Brady.
    Indeed, we have granted habeas relief on the basis of a
    “significant difference” between the suppressed impeachment
    and other types of impeachment evidence used at trial.
    Slutzker v. Johnson, 
    393 F.3d 373
    , 387 (3d Cir. 2004). In
    Slutzker, we held that a police report memorializing a
    witness’s inconsistent statement was significantly different
    from the reports used to impeach the witness at trial. In the
    reports used at trial, the witness failed to identify the
    defendant, but in the suppressed report, she definitively stated
    that the man she saw was not the defendant. We concluded
    that “[t]he latter is much more convincing impeachment
    evidence, and the failure to disclose it leaves us in doubt that
    the trial verdict was worthy of confidence.” 
    Id.
     The police
    activity sheet memorializing Howard’s statement similarly
    provides distinct and persuasive impeachment material that
    discredits Howard’s testimony more thoroughly than the
    identification challenges defense counsel levelled at trial.
    The Commonwealth relies on United States v. Walker,
    
    657 F.3d 160
     (3d Cir. 2011), and United States v. Perez, 
    280 F.3d 318
     (3d Cir. 2002), in arguing that the activity sheet
    does not add anything significant to the record and is
    consequently immaterial, even if the evidence is unique.
    However, the activity sheet adds to the record in a distinct
    74
    and significant way, so Walker and Perez do not compel us to
    find it immaterial. In Walker, defendants sought a new trial
    based on the state’s suppression of information, unrelated to
    the trial itself, about an informant witness. The informant,
    who testified at defendant’s trial, was found with cocaine and
    marijuana in his pocket on the day of a controlled buy
    operation in an unrelated case. We held that suppression of
    that information did not rise to the level of a Brady violation.
    
    657 F.3d at 188
     (noting that another witness for the
    prosecution provided direct support). Unlike our case, where
    Howard’s statement to the Pughs directly undercut the
    credibility of her eyewitness testimony in Dennis’s case, the
    alleged Brady evidence in Walker was wholly unrelated to
    defendant’s case. Further, we reiterated the principle in
    Walker that “there are some instances where specific
    impeachment evidence is so important (for issues such as the
    identity of the culprit) that it is material for Brady purposes
    even when a witness has already been effectively impeached
    on other issues.” 
    Id.
     (emphasis added). Thus, Walker
    supports the view that withholding impeachment material that
    is germane to a critical aspect of the case—as here, the
    identity of the perpetrator—violates Brady.
    Similarly,    Perez    does      not     support     the
    Commonwealth’s contention. The alleged Brady material in
    Perez was a witness’s later statement inculpating another
    defendant and exculpating Perez. The initial statement,
    unlike Howard’s initial statement in this case, was
    corroborated by documentary evidence and co-defendant
    testimony at trial. Here, Howard’s eyewitness testimony
    played a pivotal emotional and practical role that could not be
    replaced by other evidence. There are material differences in
    impeachment value as well. In Perez, we concluded that
    75
    cross-examination on the basis of the later statement would
    not have induced the co-defendant to admit to committing the
    crime. Perez, 
    280 F.3d at
    350–51. Here, the type of
    statement at issue is different—Howard would have been
    confronted with an inconsistent statement, but not one that
    would have implicated her in the crime.
    Armed with the activity sheet, defense counsel could
    have impeached Howard in a manner that very well may have
    led her to admit she recognized the perpetrators from her high
    school. Regardless of whether she actually recognized the
    shooter, Howard’s credibility would have been placed counter
    to that of the victim’s aunt and uncle, the Pughs, who would
    have undoubtedly been called at trial.          Consequently,
    Howard’s impeachment could have changed the jury’s
    perception of her credibility.
    There are significant, material differences between the
    type of cross-examination defense counsel engaged in and
    what he could have done had he known of the police activity
    sheet. As the District Court noted, “the activity sheet would
    have shown that [Howard] either lied to Williams’[s] close
    relatives—only days after the murder and in a manner that
    implicated Diane Pugh’s own nephew—or she was lying at
    trial.” Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 515. Thus, the
    government’s suppression necessarily undermines confidence
    in the outcome of Dennis’s trial.             Discrediting the
    prosecution’s central witness, and the eyewitness with the
    most significant exposure to the shooter, would have had
    devastating effects on the prosecution’s case at trial. The
    remaining two eyewitnesses were located farther away from
    the incident, had only brief glimpses of the perpetrators, or
    were admittedly paying little attention.           Challenging
    76
    Howard’s identification of the shooter did little to undermine
    her credibility as a witness; but armed with the inconsistent
    statement, defense counsel could have undercut Howard’s
    testimony sufficiently that a jury may not have convicted
    Dennis. There is a reasonable probability that had the activity
    sheet been disclosed, the result of the proceeding would have
    been different.
    The Commonwealth argues that Howard did not make
    the statements attributed to her in the activity sheet. In
    support of this assertion, the Commonwealth looks to
    Howard’s and the Pugh’s testimony during PCRA review—
    over sixteen years after Dennis’s trial. Her statements during
    PCRA review carry little weight in how we consider a jury’s
    credibility determination at trial. In Kyles, the Supreme Court
    explicitly rejected the contention that post-conviction
    credibility determinations could replicate the jury’s credibility
    determinations at trial. Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at
    449 n.19
    (“[N]either observation [during post-conviction proceedings]
    could possibly have affected the jury’s appraisal of Burns’s
    credibility at the time of Kyles’s trials.”). The court oriented
    its analysis around how the jury would have weighed the
    information, not the credibility of the post-conviction
    testimony itself. Thus, the proper inquiry remains whether
    use of the activity sheet by defense counsel at trial would
    have resulted in a different outcome at trial. The jury makes
    the credibility determination, not the Court sixteen years post-
    trial.
    Although the Supreme Court instructed habeas courts
    in Wood not to ignore testimony at evidentiary hearings that
    would undermine the potential usefulness of alleged Brady
    material, the admissions during a post-conviction hearing in
    77
    Wood differed significantly from those provided by Howard
    during PCRA review. In Wood, counsel specifically admitted
    that “disclosure [of the polygraph results] would not have
    affected the scope of his cross-examination,” and
    consequently, he did not bother to obtain admissions during
    post-conviction review. Wood, 
    516 U.S. at
    7–8. The post-
    conviction testimony at issue here is markedly different.
    Dennis’s trial counsel testified that discrediting Howard
    through inconsistent statements was an integral part of the
    trial strategy. Interpreting Howard’s statements during PCRA
    hearings as indicating that she did not, in fact, make the
    statements to the Pughs contained in the activity sheet would
    allow the Commonwealth to cure its suppression of material
    evidence through delay. This we will not do.
    The Commonwealth’s argument that the information
    contained in the activity sheet was double hearsay, so not
    admissible for impeachment purposes, fairs no better. The
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court did not rest its decision on an
    admissibility determination. Rather, it rooted its analysis in a
    misapplication of the Kyles materiality standard: that “any
    additional impeachment based on the activity sheet would
    have created a reasonable probability that the result of the
    proceeding would have been different.” Dennis IV, 
    17 A.3d at 309
    .
    Counsel could also have used the information to
    challenge the adequacy of the police investigation. Defense
    counsel could have questioned Detectives Jastrzembski and
    Santiago as to why they did not ask Howard questions about
    her inconsistent statement when they saw her again only a
    few hours after indicating that confronting her was part of
    their “things to do.” Their subsequent meeting with Howard
    78
    centered on reviewing a photo array. The detectives never
    asked Howard about admitting to the Pughs that she
    recognized the assailants from Olney High School. They
    never asked Howard about Kim and Quinton, despite having
    recently left a discussion with Parker, who stated that Howard
    mentioned Kim and Quinton to her as well. There is also no
    indication that they conducted any further investigation into
    the Pughs and whether they misheard all of these details or
    had reason to fabricate Howard’s inconsistent statement.
    Armed with the statement, defense counsel could have
    highlighted the investigatory failures for the jury, which could
    have supported Dennis’s acquittal.
    Further, defense counsel could have used the Howard
    inconsistent statement to mount an “other suspect” defense at
    trial. According to the Pughs, Howard stated that she
    recognized the shooter from Olney High School where she
    and Williams were enrolled. Dennis attended Roxborough
    High School for his entire high school career. The simple
    conflict between where Dennis attended school and where
    Howard stated the assailants went to school would have
    removed Dennis as a suspect and empowered defense counsel
    to put forth an “other suspect” defense at trial, which he was
    otherwise unable to do. Together with the failure to follow
    up on the statements to the Pughs, defense counsel could have
    urged that Dennis’s was a case where police arbitrarily put
    blinders on as to the possibility that someone else committed
    the crime and pursued the easy lead.
    Although     the Pennsylvania      Supreme     Court
    acknowledged that “the omission is to be evaluated in the
    context of the entire record,” Dennis IV, 
    17 A.3d at 309
    , it
    ultimately applied the Brady materiality standard
    79
    unreasonably by using sufficiency of the evidence as a
    touchstone. As pointed out by the District Court, the
    Supreme Court instructed in Kyles that “[a] defendant need
    not demonstrate that after discounting the inculpatory
    evidence in light of the undisclosed evidence, there would not
    have been enough left to convict.” 
    514 U.S. at
    434–35.
    Rather, “the Kyles Court rebuked the dissent for assuming
    that Kyles must lose on his Brady claim because there would
    still have been enough to convict, even if the favorable
    evidence had been disclosed. ‘The rule is clear, and none of
    the Brady cases has ever suggested that sufficiency of the
    evidence (or insufficiency) is the touchstone.’” Dennis V,
    966 F. Supp. 2d at 516 (quoting Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at
    435 n.8).
    State courts may not “emphasize[] reasons a juror might
    disregard new evidence while ignoring reasons she might
    not.” Wearry v. Cain, 
    136 S. Ct. 1002
    , 1007 (2016).
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court concluded that
    “[t]he disclosure of the activity sheet would have had no
    impact upon [two additional] eyewitnesses’ testimony” and
    consequently, the activity sheet was not material under Brady.
    Dennis IV, 
    17 A.3d at 309
    . In making its conclusion as to the
    materiality of the activity sheet, the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court tied the materiality of the activity sheet to a
    requirement that Dennis show that Cameron’s and Bertha’s
    eyewitness testimony would not be sufficient to support the
    jury’s finding. This analysis is entirely inconsistent with the
    Court’s instructions on materiality. The Commonwealth
    argues, and the Dissent appears to accept, that by citing
    Commonwealth v. Weiss, 
    986 A.2d 808
     (Pa. 2009)—which
    reiterated the Supreme Court’s admonition of the sufficiency
    of the evidence test—the Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    applied the proper standard.          However, unreasonable
    80
    application of federal law under AEDPA occurs when the
    state court identifies the proper principle, but “unreasonably
    applies that principle to the facts of the prisoner’s case.”
    Williams, 
    529 U.S. at 413
    . Indeed, in Lafler, the state court
    had identified the two Strickland prongs—prejudice and
    performance—yet the United States Supreme Court
    concluded that the state court had unreasonably used the
    “knowing and voluntary” standard and disregarded
    Strickland. 132 S. Ct. at 1390.
    Here, the Commonwealth’s argument that the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court knew the proper standard for
    materiality does little to demonstrate that it actually applied it
    reasonably. Instead of engaging in a holistic materiality
    inquiry per Kyles, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court proceeded
    down an analytical path that hinged the activity sheet’s Brady
    materiality on the sufficiency of the evidence, namely, the
    strength of Bertha and Cameron’s eyewitness testimony, in
    direct contravention of how the Supreme Court has defined
    materiality.
    Judge Fisher’s Dissent relies on the Supreme Court’s
    decision in Strickler to support the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court’s approach to materiality in Dennis IV. Like the
    activity sheet, the exculpatory materials at issue in Strickler
    would have cast doubt on the testimony of a key prosecution,
    Anne Stoltzfus. In Strickler, the Court of Appeals for the
    Fourth Circuit below had identified the Kyles standard for
    materiality and had concluded that “without considering
    Stoltzfus’ testimony, the record contained ample, independent
    evidence of guilt, as well as evidence sufficient to support the
    findings of vileness and future dangerousness that warranted
    the imposition of the death penalty.” Strickler, 
    527 U.S. at
    81
    290. The United States Supreme Court soundly rejected the
    Fourth Circuit’s approach upon review in Strickler. It
    instructed that “[t]he standard used by [the Fourth Circuit]
    was incorrect” and reiterated that “the materiality inquiry is
    not just a matter of determining whether, after discounting the
    inculpatory evidence in light of the undisclosed evidence, the
    remaining evidence is sufficient to support the jury’s
    conclusions.” 
    Id.
     (“[T]he question is whether ‘the favorable
    evidence could reasonably be taken to put the whole case in
    such a different light as to undermine confidence in the
    verdict.’” (quoting Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at 435
    )).              The
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court did precisely what the Strickler
    Court rejected—it evaluated whether, after considering
    Howard’s testimony, the remaining eyewitness testimony was
    sufficient for Dennis’s conviction. Dennis IV, 
    17 A.3d at 309
    (“[T]here were two eyewitnesses other than Howard who
    observed the shooting at close range. . . . The disclosure of
    the activity sheet would have had no impact upon these
    eyewitnesses’ testimony.”).
    Further, the materiality of the impeachment evidence
    in Strickler is distinguishable from the police activity sheet at
    issue here because the evidence against petitioner in Strickler
    was far more extensive and varied than the Commonwealth’s
    case against Dennis. As Judge Fisher recognizes, there was
    “considerable forensic and other physical evidence” linking
    the petitioner to the crime in Strickler. 
    527 U.S. at 293
    . The
    Supreme Court ultimately concluded that “[t]he record
    provide[d] strong support for the conclusion that petitioner
    would have been convicted of capital murder and sentenced
    to death, even if Stoltzfus had been severely impeached.” 
    Id. at 294
    . Thus, the Strickler Court held that petitioner had not
    shown materiality under Brady.
    82
    The record laid by the Commonwealth in Dennis’s
    case pales in comparison to the one mounted by the
    government in Strickler. For instance, the police in Strickler
    recovered hairs from clothing found with the victim that were
    microscopically akin to petitioner’s, and petitioner’s
    fingerprints were found on the inside and outside of the
    victim’s car. 
    527 U.S. at
    293 n.41. No similar physical
    evidence exists on the record in Dennis’s case. The Supreme
    Court recognized the importance of Stoltzfus’s testimony, as
    it was the only disinterested narrative account provided at
    trial, but ultimately concluded in its holistic materiality
    inquiry that petitioner failed to show that there was “a
    reasonable probability that his conviction or sentence would
    have been different had these materials been disclosed.” 
    Id. at 296
    . The conclusion that petitioner failed to show
    materiality against the variety and extensiveness of the
    evidence against petitioner in Strickler differs from the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court indication that two other
    eyewitness accounts were sufficient for a jury to convict
    Dennis.
    In sum, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court unreasonably
    applied Brady and its progeny in denying Dennis’s Brady
    claim based on the Howard inconsistent statement. It
    unreasonably disregarded the impeachment value of the
    evidence in discrediting the Commonwealth’s key eyewitness
    and the adequacy of the investigation. It unreasonably
    applied a sufficiency of the evidence test by tying the
    materiality of the activity sheet to the sufficiency of the
    remaining inculpatory eyewitness testimony. And finally, the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court failed to consider that the
    activity sheet would have enabled defense counsel to raise a
    83
    defense he was otherwise unable to present—that a student at
    Olney High School committed the murder. There is a
    reasonable probability that, had the activity sheet been
    disclosed, the jury would have had a reasonable doubt as to
    Dennis’s guilt.
    C.     Frazier Documents
    1. Facts
    Prior to Dennis’ arrest, Philadelphia police received a
    lead from Montgomery County Detectives that someone other
    than Dennis may have murdered Williams. William Frazier,
    an inmate at the Montgomery County Correctional Facility
    called police and told them that Tony Brown “shot . . . [a]
    female in the middle of the street near the Fern Rock station”
    after the girl resisted his efforts to take her earrings, which
    Brown sold at a pawn shop for $400. App. 1689–90.
    Frazier heard Brown’s confession during a three way
    call facilitated by his aunt, Angela Frazier. Frazier recounted
    the conversation in a signed statement given to Philadelphia
    Police less than two weeks after Williams’s murder. Brown
    admitted that he—along with Frazier’s cousin, Ricky Walker,
    and a man called “Skeet”—had “fucked up” and killed
    Chedell Williams. App 1692. Frazier told police that Brown
    knew Williams, and identified her as “Kev with the blue
    pathfinder . . . his girl.” App. 1694.
    During the call, Brown asked Frazier if he heard about
    “the incident on the news about the girl that [was] killed over
    a pair of earrings,” and Brown confessed “that was us.” App.
    1692. Frazier reported “[Tony] said that he and Ricky got out
    84
    of the car and Skeet was driving. They approached the girl,
    Tony pulled his gun out and told her to give up the earrings . .
    . she refused. So he put the gun to her neck . . . [and] it
    accidentally went off.” 
    Id.
     Walker briefly joined the call and
    reported that they were scared, and that they left Frazier’s
    apartment, where they sought cover after the murder, in the
    middle of the night so that no one would see them. Frazier
    reported that Brown and Walker sounded “extremely nervous
    and upset.” App. 1694. Frazier described Tony as 5’7”, two
    inches taller than Dennis, with light brown skin. Like the
    assailant, Tony “like[d] to wear sweat suits;” he had also
    committed robberies in the past and owned “a collection of
    guns.” App. 1693–95.
    Frazier gave detectives addresses for Brown and
    Walker, the address where Skeet used to live. Frazier also
    gave police Angela Frazier’s address and phone number,
    Brown’s mother’s address, and an address of the pawn shop,
    along with a description of the proprietor. Frazier agreed to
    go on a ride along to show detectives the addresses he
    reported. The Philadelphia police, including Jastrzembski,
    spoke with Frazier’s landlord, who confirmed that Frazier
    rented the apartment located at the address he provided.
    Although the landlord reported that nobody had been in the
    apartment since Frazier’s arrest, the men used unconventional
    means to enter Frazier’s apartment the night of the murder—
    they climbed through Frazier’s right window. 26
    26
    While this matter was pending before the panel, the
    government located Frazier in federal prison and interviewed
    him. During this interview, Frazier admitted the story he told
    police in 1991 was, in his words, “bullshit,” that the “three-
    way” phone call with his aunt and “Tony Brown” “never
    85
    Detectives interviewed Walker, who told them that he
    “c[ouldn’t] stand” his cousin, Frazier. App. 1703. Walker
    denied knowing Tony Brown and Skeet and denied any
    involvement with, or knowledge about, Williams’s murder.
    He told detectives that he was at his house with his mother on
    the day of the murder.          Police did not conduct an
    investigation into Walker’s alibi or alert defense counsel to
    any of the information on Frazier’s tip.
    2.     State court decision
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court affirmed the PCRA
    court’s denial of Dennis’s Brady claim as to the Frazier
    documents on the grounds that Dennis failed to demonstrate
    that the documents were material and admissible. The
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court relied on its decision in
    Commonwealth v. Lambert, 
    884 A.2d 848
     (2005), in which it
    emphasized that the prosecution need not “disclose to the
    defense every fruitless lead followed by investigators of a
    crime” and asserted that “inadmissible evidence cannot be the
    basis for a Brady violation.” Lambert, 
    884 A.2d at 857
    (citation omitted). The court concluded: “In the absence of
    any argument regarding the gravamen of Lambert . . .
    [Dennis] has failed to establish a basis for relief” regarding
    the Frazier documents. Dennis III, 950 A.2d at 968.
    However, as Dennis points out, the Pennsylvania Supreme
    happened,” and that he did not know anyone named “Tony
    Brown” or “Skeet.” Response to Pet. Rh’g at 17 n.13.
    Ultimately, Frazier’s admission many years post-trial does
    not change our analysis of whether, given the information the
    Commonwealth had at the time of the tip, they were required
    to disclose the lead documents pursuant to Brady.
    86
    Court retreated from its decision in Lambert in a later opinion
    so as to comport with Supreme Court precedent regarding the
    need for admissibility. Commonwealth v. Willis, 
    46 A.3d 648
    , 670 (Pa. 2012) (“[W]e hold that admissibility at trial is
    not a prerequisite to a determination of materiality under
    Brady. . . . Therefore, nondisclosed favorable evidence which
    is not admissible at trial may nonetheless be considered
    material for Brady purposes[.]”).
    3.     AEDPA Review
    The state court addressed the merits of the Frazier
    claim and, as a result, Dennis may obtain habeas relief only if
    he can demonstrate that the decision was an unreasonable
    application of, or contrary to, clearly established law, or an
    unreasonable determination of the facts. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d).
    It is undisputed that the first two elements of Brady are met.
    The Frazier documents indicated that someone other than
    Dennis committed the crime, and were thus exculpatory, and
    there is no question that the state did not disclose the
    documents until PCRA discovery.                 However, the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court unreasonably applied Brady and
    its progeny in concluding that the Frazier documents were
    immaterial. Also, in appending an admissibility requirement
    onto Brady, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court acted contrary
    to clearly established law, as defined by the United States
    Supreme Court.
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s justification that
    the Frazier documents were a “fruitless lead” was
    unreasonable. There is no requirement that leads be fruitful
    to trigger disclosure under Brady, and it cannot be that if the
    Commonwealth fails to pursue a lead, or deems it fruitless,
    87
    that it is absolved of its responsibility to turn over to defense
    counsel Brady material. The rationale behind Brady itself
    rests on the principle that prosecutors bear an obligation to
    structure a fair trial for defendants:
    Society wins not only when the guilty are
    convicted but when criminal trials are fair; our
    system of the administration of justice suffers
    when any accused is treated unfairly. . . . A
    prosecution that withholds evidence . . . which,
    if made available, would tend to exculpate him
    or reduce the penalty helps shape a trial that
    bears heavily on the defendant. That casts the
    prosecutor in the role of an architect of a
    proceeding that does not comport with
    standards of justice, even [if] . . . his action is
    not the result of guile[.]
    Brady, 
    373 U.S. at
    87–88 (internal quotation marks and
    footnote omitted). Structuring a fair trial for defendants
    demands that prosecutors freely disclose material that is
    helpful to the defense.     Consequently, making Brady
    disclosure depend on a prosecutor’s own assessment of
    evidentiary value, as opposed to the benefit to defense
    counsel, is anathema to the goals of fairness and justice
    motivating Brady.
    The lead was not fruitless, it was simply not rigorously
    pursued. Detectives did not interview Angela Frazier, who
    facilitated the three-way call and was on the phone when
    Brown confessed to the murder. Detectives did not question
    Walker again—who admitted to having a bias against
    Frazier—after he stated that he did not know any Brown or
    88
    Skeet, nor did they attempt to verify Walker’s alibi on the day
    of the murder. Detectives did not investigate the owner of the
    pawn shop where Brown purportedly sold Williams’s
    earrings. Detectives did not obtain the photos of Brown,
    Skeet, and Walker that were in Frazier’s apartment.
    Detectives went to an incorrect address seeking information
    about Skeet and spoke with a woman named Janice Edelen,
    who said she did not know any man called Skeet. Finally,
    detectives did not visit the addresses Frazier provided until
    ten years after the murder.         Armed with the Frazier
    documents, Dennis’s counsel would have been prepared to
    pursue the lead himself or at least informed the jury of the
    police’s misguided focus on Dennis and failure to pursue the
    lead.
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court grafted an
    admissibility requirement onto the traditional three-prong
    Brady inquiry when it rejected Dennis’s Brady claim as to the
    Frazier documents on the ground that he failed to
    affirmatively show that the documents were admissible. The
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s characterization of
    admissibility as dispositive under Brady was an unreasonable
    application of, and contrary to, clearly established law as
    defined by the United States Supreme Court.
    The Commonwealth articulates the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court’s decision somewhat differently. It argues
    that our role on habeas review is determining “whether, under
    Supreme Court precedent, it was objectively unreasonable for
    the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to reject Dennis’s claim that
    he only had to argue or allege that disclosure ‘might’ have
    affected his investigation or preparation for trial.” Appellants
    Br. 74. This framing incorrectly states what the Pennsylvania
    89
    Supreme Court did in Dennis III. It did not simply discount
    Dennis’s argument that defense counsel could have prepared
    differently had the documents been disclosed—it appended an
    admissibility requirement to Brady in contravention of clearly
    established law.
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court cited Wood v.
    Bartholomew, 
    516 U.S. 1
     (1995), as attaching an
    admissibility requirement to Brady. The United States
    Supreme Court’s holding in Wood compels the opposite
    conclusion, however. The Supreme Court held in Wood that
    there was no Brady violation when the prosecution did not
    disclose the results of two polygraph examinations that were
    inadmissible at trial. Wood, 
    516 U.S. at 6
    . The Wood Court
    noted that Brady governs “evidence,” and that the polygraph
    results, since they were inadmissible under state law, were
    “not ‘evidence’ at all.” 
    Id.
     at 5–6. However, under
    Washington law, polygraphic examinations cannot be
    admissible for any purpose at trial, even for impeachment
    purposes. 
    Id. at 5
    . At most, the Court’s holding in Wood
    could support the proposition that evidence that cannot be
    used in any manner at trial under state law may be immaterial
    under Brady. The holding does not reach so far as to allow
    state courts to attach a general admissibility requirement onto
    the Brady inquiry as the Pennsylvania Supreme Court did in
    Dennis III.
    Further, the Wood Court analyzed the effect of
    suppressing the polygraph results, despite their
    uncontroverted inadmissibility. After acknowledging their
    inadmissibility, the Wood Court proceeded to examine
    whether, if disclosed, the results would have led to the
    discovery of evidence that would have influenced the course
    90
    of trial, including pre-trial preparations. See Wood, 
    516 U.S. at 7
     (considering whether trial counsel would have prepared
    differently given the results, though ultimately concluding
    that disclosure would not have resulted in a different
    outcome). The Supreme Court’s decision to continue its
    inquiry in light of wholly inadmissible alleged Brady material
    is telling. As the District Court aptly observed, “[i]f
    inadmissible evidence could never form the basis of a Brady
    claim, the Court’s examination of the issue would have ended
    when it noted that the test results were inadmissible.” Dennis
    V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 503.
    The Supreme Court’s choice in Wood to consider the
    way in which suppression of the polygraph results affected
    preparation and trial aligns with the way in which materiality
    is discussed in Kyles. Kyles makes clear that evidence is
    material under Brady when the defense could have used it to
    “attack the reliability of the investigation.” 
    514 U.S. at 446
    .
    As noted by the District Court, in Kyles, defense counsel
    could have used the information at issue “to throw the
    reliability of the investigation into doubt and to sully the
    credibility” of the lead detective. 
    Id. at 447
    . The proper
    inquiry for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court was to consider
    whether disclosure of the Frazier documents would have
    impacted the course of trial, which includes investigative
    activities. Here, disclosure of the Frazier documents would
    have empowered defense counsel to pursue strategies and
    preparations he was otherwise unequipped to pursue.
    Imposition of an admissibility requirement does not
    comport with the United States Supreme Court’s longstanding
    recognition that impeachment evidence may be favorable and
    material, and if so, is unquestionably subject to Brady
    91
    disclosure. The Court stated definitively in Strickler that
    “[o]ur cases make clear that Brady’s disclosure requirements
    extend to materials that, whatever their other characteristics,
    may be used to impeach a witness.” 
    527 U.S. at
    282 n.21
    (emphasis added). As to both the first Brady prong,
    favorability, and the third Brady prong, materiality, the
    Supreme Court has held that impeachment evidence falls
    under Brady’s purview. 
    Id.
     at 281–82 (the evidence “must be
    favorable to the accused, either because it is exculpatory, or
    because it is impeaching.”); Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at 445
    (concluding that evidence was material because “the effective
    impeachment of one eyewitness can call for a new trial even
    though the attack does not extend directly to others”).
    Further, nearly all of the cases decided by the United States
    Supreme Court since Brady have dealt with impeachment
    evidence. See Wearry v. Cain, 
    136 S. Ct. 1002
     (2016) (per
    curiam), Wetzel v. Lambert, 
    132 S. Ct. 1195
     (2012); Smith v.
    Cain, 
    132 S. Ct. 627
     (2012); Cone v. Bell, 
    556 U.S. 449
    (2009); Banks v. Dretke, 
    540 U.S. 668
     (2004); Strickler v.
    Greene, 
    527 U.S. 263
     (1999); United States v. Bagley, 
    473 U.S. 667
     (1985); United States v. Agurs, 
    427 U.S. 97
     (1976);
    Moore v. Illinois, 
    408 U.S. 786
     (1972); Giglio v. United
    States, 
    405 U.S. 150
     (1972); Giles v. Maryland, 
    386 U.S. 66
    (1967). It would be difficult to find stronger support for the
    proposition that admissibility is not a requirement under
    Brady, and the Supreme Court’s repeated consideration of
    impeachment material in Brady cases—without any
    reservation whatsoever—compels us to conclude that it is
    unreasonable to graft an admissibility requirement onto
    Brady’s traditional three-pronged inquiry.
    Beyond the recognition that impeachment evidence is
    covered by Brady, the essence of the United States Supreme
    92
    Court’s Brady jurisprudence focuses on the benefits of
    disclosure to the defense, not admissibility. This is evidenced
    by the definition of materiality itself. Kyles provides that
    evidence is material “if there is a reasonable probability that,
    had the evidence been disclosed to the defense, the result of
    the proceeding would have been different.” 
    514 U.S. at
    433–
    34 (1995) (quoting Bagley, 
    473 U.S. at 682
     (opinion of
    Blackmun, J.)) (emphasis added). Quite simply, under Brady,
    the focus of the inquiry is on whether the information had
    “been disclosed to the defense,” not whether it was
    admissible at trial. See 
    id.
     An admissibility requirement
    improperly shifts that focus.
    The United States Supreme Court’s focus on
    disclosure is mirrored in the way in which it has applied the
    “reasonable probability” standard used to assess materiality
    under Brady. When the Court has reviewed applications of
    the “reasonable probability” standard, it has weighed the
    strength of the suppressed evidence against the strength of
    disclosed evidence to evaluate its impact, not critiqued the
    character of the evidence itself. See Strickler, 
    527 U.S. at
    290–94. In Strickler, the Court denied a Brady claim on
    materiality grounds because “the record provides strong
    support for the conclusion that petitioner would have been
    convicted of capital murder and sentenced to death, even if
    [an eyewitness] had been severely impeached.” 
    Id. at 294
    .
    Thus, the focus was on disclosure, given the effect of other
    available material, not the character of the material itself.
    The Supreme Court’s later decision in Cone v. Bell
    similarly affirmed its longstanding focus on disclosure
    regardless of admissibility at trial.   There, the Court
    considered impeachment evidence including police bulletins,
    93
    statements contained in official reports, and FBI reports to be
    Brady material. Cone, 
    556 U.S. at
    470–71. Neither the Sixth
    Circuit nor the District Court below fully considered whether
    the suppressed documents would have persuaded the jury to
    impose a lesser sentence. 
    Id. at 475
     (“It is possible that the
    suppressed evidence, viewed cumulatively, may have
    persuaded the jury that Cone had a far more serious drug
    problem than the prosecution was prepared to acknowledge,
    and that Cone’s drug use played a mitigating, though not
    exculpating, role in the crimes he committed.”). Cone held
    that the courts below had failed to “thoroughly review the
    suppressed evidence or consider what its cumulative effect on
    the jury would have been” regarding Cone’s sentence. 
    Id. at 472
    . By remanding the case for full consideration of the
    Brady claim despite the fact that the suppressed evidence was
    not necessarily admissible, the Court indicated that the
    admissibility of suppressed evidence ought not to change the
    materiality inquiry itself, which is understood as “a
    reasonable probability that, had the evidence been disclosed,
    the result of the proceeding would have been different.” 
    Id. at 470, 476
    .
    Our recent decision in Johnson v. Folino, 
    705 F.3d 117
    (3d Cir. 2013) further affirms the view that inadmissible
    evidence is often very material:
    [I]nadmissible evidence may be material if it
    could have led to the discovery of admissible
    evidence. Furthermore . . . we think that
    inadmissible evidence may be material if it
    could have been used effectively to impeach or
    corral witnesses during cross-examination.
    Thus, the admissibility of the evidence itself is
    94
    not dispositive for Brady purposes. Rather, the
    inquiry is whether the undisclosed evidence is
    admissible itself or could have led to the
    discovery of admissible evidence that could
    have made a difference in the outcome of the
    trial sufficient to establish a “reasonable
    probability” of a different result.
    
    Id. at 130
     (citations omitted).     Here, however, the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court ignored how the United States
    Supreme Court has evaluated materiality and instead made
    inadmissibility a determinative factor, indeed, the
    determinative factor.
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s characterization of
    admissibility as a separate, independent prong of Brady
    effectively added admissibility as a requirement. This runs
    afoul of Supreme Court precedent. The Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court required “evidence sought under Brady be
    material and admissible.” Dennis III, 950 A.2d at 968
    (emphasis added). The Supreme Court has never added a
    fourth “admissibility” prong to Brady analysis. Like the
    imposition of a due diligence prong, adding an admissibility
    prong would alter Brady’s traditional three-prong inquiry in a
    manner that the Supreme Court rejected in Williams. See
    Williams, 
    529 U.S. at 393
    .
    Most federal courts have concluded that suppressed
    evidence may be material for Brady purposes even where it is
    not admissible. See United States v. Morales, 
    746 F.3d 310
    ,
    314 (7th Cir. 2014) (listing cases). However, the Seventh and
    Fourth Circuits have indicated that inadmissible evidence
    cannot be material. Morales, 746 F.3d at 314; see also
    95
    Jardine v. Dittmann, 
    658 F.3d 772
    , 777 (7th Cir. 2011)
    (“Logically, inadmissible evidence is immaterial under [the
    Brady] rule”); Hoke v. Netherland, 
    92 F.3d 1350
    , 1356 n.3
    (4th Cir. 1996). Jardine and Hoke involved evidence that
    was prohibited from being used under state evidence laws and
    their assertions regarding an admissibility requirement were
    not determinative to their holdings. Jardine, 
    658 F.3d at 777
    (noting that the undisclosed material was inadmissible under
    state law and could not be used to impeach, but concluding
    that no Brady violation occurred only after evaluating other
    avenues through with the material could be used); Hoke, 
    92 F.3d at
    1355–56 (holding that the undisclosed information
    about the murder victim’s sexual history would not have been
    material in light of overwhelming physical and other evidence
    and resolving the case on grounds other than admissibility).
    Morales is similarly unpersuasive, as it observed that the
    Courts of Appeals for the First, Second, Third, Sixth, and
    Eleventh Circuits have read Brady to include material but
    inadmissible evidence. 746 F.3d at 314. The Morales court
    even conceded that “[w]e find the Court’s methodology in
    Wood to be more consistent with the majority view in the
    courts of appeals than with a rule that restricts Brady to
    formally admissible evidence.” Id. at 315. 27
    27
    Although the United States Supreme Court recently
    recognized that circuit splits may indicate a possibility of fair-
    minded disagreement under AEDPA, it did so where the
    circuit split emerged out of an express reservation left by the
    Supreme Court on the precise question decided by the state
    court. In White v. Woodall, the Kentucky Supreme Court
    decided that a no-adverse inference instruction, required by
    the Fifth Amendment to protect a non-testifying defendant at
    the guilt phase, is not required at the penalty phase. 134 S.
    96
    The Frazier documents were material under Brady.
    Dennis’s counsel could have used the information contained
    in the Frazier documents to challenge detectives at trial
    regarding their paltry investigation of the lead. As we
    previously noted, the lead was “fruitless” because the
    Commonwealth failed to take sufficient action to determine if
    it was fruitful—the Commonwealth essentially abandoned it.
    The Commonwealth does not dispute that trial counsel could
    Ct. 1697, 1701 (2014) reh’g denied, 
    134 S. Ct. 2835
     (2014).
    In so doing, the Kentucky Supreme Court relied on the
    Supreme Court’s decision in Mitchell v. United States, 
    526 U.S. 314
     (1999), to support its denial. Mitchell included an
    express reservation on the question the state court decided.
    See White, 134 S. Ct. at 1703. In the wake of reservation in
    Mitchell, “[t]he Courts of Appeals . . . recognized
    that Mitchell left [the sentencing question] unresolved; their
    diverging approaches to the question illustrate the possibility
    of fairminded disagreement.” White, 134 S. Ct. at 1703 n.3.
    Thus, the United States Supreme Court opined that the
    Kentucky Supreme Court’s rejection of respondent’s Fifth
    Amendment claim was not objectively unreasonable because
    there was an intentional lack of guidance from the Court. The
    United States Supreme Court has made no such express
    reservations when it comes to Brady materiality or an
    admissibility requirement. Consequently, to the extent that
    language from our sister circuits might be read to recognize a
    general admissibility requirement in Brady, we respectfully
    conclude that they have erred. Discrepancies as to the
    interpretation of Wood ought not to substantiate the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s erroneous application of the
    Brady materiality standard in this case.
    97
    have used the information in the suppressed documents to
    question the detectives.
    Further, had the Commonwealth not suppressed the
    Frazier documents, Dennis could have presented an “other
    person” defense at trial, which he was otherwise not able to
    do. The Frazier documents bring to light that Walker
    admitted to going to Olney High School—the school
    Williams and Howard attended—and he recognized Williams
    from school. Thus, the documents not only support an
    alternative shooter theory, but the very same alternative
    shooter theory that defense counsel could have been prepared
    to raise had the Howard activity sheet also been disclosed.
    Alterations in defense preparation and cross-examination at
    trial are precisely the types of qualities that make evidence
    material under Brady. Consequently, it was unreasonable for
    the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to conclude that the Frazier
    documents were not material.          There is a reasonable
    probability that had the jury heard an “other person” defense,
    the result of the proceeding would have been different.
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court unreasonably
    applied federal law and applied law in a manner contrary to
    Supreme Court precedent. The Commonwealth’s suppression
    of the Frazier documents violated Brady as they were
    favorable to the defense, and could have been used by defense
    counsel as exculpatory and impeachment evidence. Dennis is
    entitled to a new trial.
    D.     Cumulative Materiality
    While the suppression of the Cason receipt, the
    Howard police activity sheet, and the Frazier documents
    98
    support ordering a new trial, the cumulative effect of their
    suppression commands it. Had the Brady material been
    disclosed, there is a reasonable probability that the outcome
    of the trial would have been different, and its suppression
    undermines confidence in the verdict.
    The District Court engaged in a cumulative materiality
    analysis in addition to granting each individual Brady claim.
    Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 517–18. This analysis was
    proper. When the issue ripened in Dennis IV and the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court could have assessed the
    cumulative prejudice of withholding the Cason receipt,
    Frazier documents, and police activity sheet containing
    Howard’s statements, it declined to do so explicitly. We are
    required to presume that the state court considered and
    rejected Dennis’s cumulative materiality argument. Johnson
    v. Williams, 
    133 S. Ct. 1088
    , 1097 (2013). Just as the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s rejections of Dennis’s Brady
    claims constituted unreasonable application of federal law, its
    rejection of the cumulative materiality of the suppressed
    evidence, though not done explicitly, was an unreasonable
    application of Brady and its progeny.
    The Supreme Court in Kyles instructed that the
    materiality of withheld evidence must be “considered
    collectively, not item by item.” 
    514 U.S. at 436
    . The
    importance of cumulative prejudice cannot be overstated, as it
    stems from the inherent power held by the prosecution, which
    motivated Brady. 
    Id. at 437
     (“[T]he prosecution . . . alone
    can know what is undisclosed[] [and] must be assigned the
    consequent responsibility to gauge the likely net effect of all
    such evidence and make disclosure when the point of
    99
    ‘reasonable probability’ is reached.”). The Supreme Court
    recently reiterated that state courts are required to evaluate the
    materiality of suppressed evidence cumulatively. Wearry,
    
    136 S. Ct. at 1007
     (“[T]he state postconviction court
    improperly evaluated the materiality of each piece of
    evidence in isolation rather than cumulatively.”)
    As acknowledged by the District Court, the cumulative
    impeachment value of the suppressed evidence would have
    undermined the Commonwealth’s case. The Cason receipt
    would have impeached the Commonwealth’s primary
    response to Dennis’s alibi by providing documentary proof
    that Cason testified falsely and would have transformed her
    into a witness for the defense. The inconsistent statement
    contained in the police activity sheet would have impeached
    Howard’s credibility, undoubtedly the Commonwealth’s most
    important eyewitness.       Her impeachment by the Pugh
    statement would challenge her credibility, not simply the
    reliability of her identification during the photo array and
    lineup, which was what defense counsel was limited to at
    trial. Discrediting Cason and Howard may very well have
    raised sufficient doubt among the jury to acquit Dennis.
    Moreover, the Frazier documents could have supported the
    existence of another suspect who attended Howard’s high
    school, and the significance of this becomes even more
    pronounced when considered with Howard’s statements to the
    Pughs that the suspect attended her high school.
    Together, the suppressed documents provided ample
    material to challenge the Commonwealth’s investigation
    following the murder. As the District Court stated:
    100
    Defense would have had a strong case to make
    that the Commonwealth abandoned promising
    leads: Police failed to meet with Frazier’s aunt,
    to verify Walker's alibi, or to include Walker
    and Brown in photo arrays or line-ups; police
    also failed to follow up with Howard about the
    statement she allegedly made to the Pughs, to
    take a formal statement from the Pughs, or to
    interview Quinton. The Commonwealth
    allowed Cason to testify incorrectly that she
    worked until 2 p.m., and failed to investigate
    Dennis’[s] alibi given the actual timing of
    Cason’s       activities.    Discrediting      the
    investigation is a crucial corollary to presenting
    an innocence/alibi defense: If the defense could
    lead the jury to believe that the Commonwealth
    conducted a shoddy investigation, the jury
    would have been more likely to listen to and
    believe Dennis’[s] alibi.
    Dennis V, 966 F. Supp. 2d at 518. The withholding of the
    Brady material would have given defense counsel unique
    ability to discredit the Commonwealth’s primary witnesses,
    bolster his alibi defense using objective documentary support
    from a disinterested party, highlight the shoddiness of the
    Commonwealth’s investigation, and perhaps point to another
    perpetrator. The cumulative effect of the suppression of these
    documents requires habeas relief.
    IV.   Conclusion
    For the foregoing reasons, we will affirm the judgment
    of the District Court and grant Dennis a conditional writ of
    101
    habeas corpus. Petitioner shall be released unless the
    Commonwealth commences a new trial against him within
    ninety days after issuance of the mandate.
    102
    McKEE, Chief Judge, concurring.
    I. Introduction
    More than three decades ago, Justice Brennan
    cautioned:
    [E]yewitness testimony is likely to be believed
    by jurors, especially when it is offered with a
    high level of confidence, even though the
    accuracy of an eyewitness and the confidence of
    that witness may not be related to one another at
    all. All the evidence points rather strikingly to
    the conclusion that there is almost nothing more
    convincing than a live human being who takes
    the stand, points a finger at the defendant, and
    says ‘That’s the one!’1
    James Dennis was sentenced to death because three
    eyewitnesses appeared at trial and confidently pointed their
    fingers at him when asked if they saw Chedell Williams’ killer
    in the courtroom. The prosecution later told the jury that if they
    believed these witnesses, they should convict James Dennis of
    first degree murder. And they did.
    The Dissent would deny Dennis relief in large part
    because it believes that “the evidence against Dennis was
    strong.”2 According to the Dissent, “it is hard to discount the
    identification testimony of three eyewitnesses.”3 Yet, nearly
    half a century of scientific research teaches that eyewitness
    testimony can be one of the greatest causes of erroneous
    convictions. The jurors in Dennis’ trial, like many juries, were
    never properly instructed about the dangers of eyewitness
    identifications. The jury charge given in this case failed to
    equip them with the knowledge necessary to accurately assess
    the reliability of the three eyewitnesses who pointed their
    fingers at James Dennis and said, “He’s the one.”
    1
    Watkins v. Sowders, 
    449 U.S. 341
    , 352 (1981) (Brennan, J.,
    dissenting) (alterations and emphasis in original) (quoting
    Elizabeth Loftus, Eyewitness Testimony 19 (1979)).
    2
    Dissent at 1 (Fisher, J.).
    3
    
    Id.
    1
    I therefore write separately to underscore the problems
    inherent in eyewitness testimony and the inadequacies of our
    standard jury instructions relating to that evidence. Jury
    instructions must educate jurors on the relevant scientific
    findings regarding eyewitness reliability in order to mitigate
    the dangers associated with inaccurate eyewitness
    identifications. The standard instructions, which were used
    here, are not only insufficient, they are misleading. However, I
    join the Majority’s thoughtful explanation of why Dennis is
    entitled to relief under AEDPA’s stringent standard of review
    in its entirety.
    In the last thirty years, over 2,000 studies have
    examined human memory and cognition and their relationship
    to the reliability of eyewitness identifications.4 This impressive
    body of scholarship and research has revealed that eyewitness
    accounts can be entirely untrustworthy. As the International
    Association of Chiefs of Police has concluded, “[o]f all
    investigative procedures employed by police in criminal cases,
    probably none is less reliable than the eyewitness
    identification.”5
    Yet, the law has not caught up to the science. The
    Innocence Project has documented that, nationwide,
    eyewitness misidentifications have been a factor in seventy-
    five percent of the wrongful convictions that were
    subsequently overturned by DNA evidence.6 One of the most
    4
    State v. Henderson, 
    27 A.3d 872
    , 892 (N.J. 2011), holding
    modified by State v. Chen, 
    27 A.2d 930
     (N.J. 2011); Charles
    A. Morgan III et al., Accuracy of Eyewitness Memory for
    Persons Encountered During Exposure to Highly Intense
    Stress, 27 Int’l J.L. & Psychiatry 265, 265 (2004).
    5
    Int’l Ass’n of Chiefs of Police, Training Key No. 600:
    Eyewitness Identification 5 (2006), available at
    http://www.ripd.org/Documents/APPENDIX/2/Supporting%2
    0Materials/IP%20113%20IACP%202006.pdf.
    6
    The Innocence Project, Reevaluating Lineups: Why
    Witnesses Make Mistakes and How to Reduce the Chance of a
    Misidentification 3 (2009), available at
    http://www.innocenceproject.org/wp-
    content/uploads/2016/05/eyewitness_id_report-5.pdf; see also
    2
    powerful and prominent examples of such a wrongful
    conviction is the story of Ronald Cotton and Jennifer
    Thompson. In July 1984, a man broke into Thompson’s
    apartment and raped her at knife point.7 When shown a photo
    array three days later, Thompson tepidly selected Cotton as her
    attacker.8 “I think this is the guy,”9 she said, pointing to
    Cotton’s photo. The lead detective then asked her if she was
    sure, and she responded, “Positive.”10 But belying her
    professed certainty, she then asked the detective, “Did I do
    OK?”11 He reassured her, “You did great.”12 About a month
    later, Thompson viewed a live lineup, in which Cotton was the
    only one repeated from the prior photo array.13 When
    Thompson positively identified Cotton from that lineup, she
    stated that she was certain he was the one who had attacked
    her.14 Cotton was then arrested and charged with one count of
    rape. At his trial, Thompson testified that she was “absolutely
    Brandon L. Garrett, Convicting the Innocent: Where Criminal
    Prosecutions Go Wrong 8-9, 279 (2011) (finding same in 190
    of 250 DNA exoneration cases); Brief for Am. Psychol. Ass’n
    as Amicus Curiae Supporting Petitioner at 14-15, Perry v.
    New Hampshire, 
    132 S. Ct. 716
     (2012) (“[S]tudies have
    consistently found that the rate of inaccurate identifications is
    roughly 33 percent.”).
    7
    60 Minutes, Eyewitness: How Accurate is Visual Memory?,
    CBS News, Mar. 6, 2009,
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/eyewitness-how-accurate-is-
    visual-memory.
    8
    
    Id.
    9
    Committee on Scientific Approaches to Understanding and
    Maximizing the Validity and Reliability of Eyewitness
    Identification in Law Enforcement and the Courts, Committee
    on Science, Technology, and Law, Committee on Law and
    Justice, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and
    Education, National Research Council, Identifying the
    Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification 10 (2014).
    10
    
    Id.
    11
    
    Id.
    12
    
    Id.
    13
    Id.; 60 Minutes, supra.
    14
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 10.
    3
    sure” that Cotton was her rapist.15 There was no corroboration
    of her identification, and she admitted that she had not been
    wearing her eyeglasses at the time of the attack.16 Nonetheless,
    a jury convicted Cotton on the strength of Thompson’s positive
    identification.17 Cotton was sentenced to life in prison plus
    fifty-four years.18
    The story does not end there. In prison, Cotton learned
    that a fellow inmate named Bobby Poole had admitted raping
    Thompson to another inmate. Based on this information,
    Cotton managed to win a new trial.19 At that retrial, Thompson
    had an opportunity to view Poole. Her reaction: “I have never
    seen him in my life.”20 As Thompson later recounted in an
    interview about the case, when she was asked to look at Poole
    during Cotton’s second trial, she was angry: “I thought, ‘how
    dare you. How dare you question me? How dare you try to
    paint me as someone who could possibly have forgotten what
    my rapist looked like, I mean, the one person you would never
    forget. How dare you.’”21
    Based on Thompson’s unequivocal affirmation of her
    identification of Cotton, he was once again convicted. He
    served over a decade in prison before DNA tests finally
    confirmed that Cotton was innocent and Poole was, in fact, the
    rapist.22 As one legal commentator described this case, “[t]he
    fallibility of eyewitness testimony and the malleability of
    memory could not be clearer, as here a crime victim had seen
    15
    Id.
    16
    Jules Epstein, Eyewitnesses and Erroneous Convictions: An
    American Conundrum, in Controversies in Innocence Cases
    in America 41, 43 (Sarah Lucy Cooper ed., 2014).
    17
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 10.
    18
    Id.
    19
    Epstein, supra, at 43.
    20
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 10.
    21
    60 Minutes, supra.
    22
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 10.
    4
    the scientifically proven perpetrator but instead saw Cotton’s
    face as that of her assailant.”23
    As I will elaborate below when I discuss the even more
    remarkable story of John White’s erroneous conviction,
    Cotton’s story cannot readily be dismissed as a fluke.
    Moreover, problems of erroneous identification remain even
    where more than one eyewitness identifies the same person as
    the perpetrator. In thirty-eight percent of misidentification
    cases documented by the Innocence Project, multiple
    eyewitnesses misidentified the same innocent person. 24
    Almost without exception, eyewitnesses who identify the
    wrong person express complete confidence that they chose the
    real perpetrators.25
    We should therefore find precious little solace in the
    fact that three eyewitnesses fingered James Dennis. As I will
    discuss, the procedures used to elicit the identifications of
    Dennis and the circumstances surrounding the crime raise
    serious questions about the accuracy of those identifications.
    The voluminous studies conducted on the subjects of memory
    and eyewitness identifications make it painfully clear that
    many of the identification procedures used in this case were
    inconsistent with the fundamental concept of neutral inquiry.
    As a result, these identifications lack many of the basic indicia
    of reliability. Yet, the jury that convicted Dennis was
    completely unaware of these problems. In addition, the jurors
    were never even informed that five other eyewitnesses, with
    similar or better opportunities to observe the shooting, either
    could not identify Dennis as Chedell Williams’ killer or
    identified someone else. Accordingly, the three courtroom
    identifications do little to assuage my concerns about the
    reliability of the identification testimony that the jury
    considered. Rather, I cannot help but wonder if an innocent
    man may have spent more than two decades on death row.
    It is as obvious as it is tragic that mistaken
    identifications have disastrous effects for the unjustly accused.
    23
    Epstein, supra, at 43 (citation omitted).
    24
    The Innocence Project, Reevaluating Lineups, supra, at 3.
    25
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 11.
    5
    That is particularly true where—as here—the death penalty is
    imposed. But wrongful convictions are not the only
    consequence of our continued failure to incorporate the
    teachings of scientific research into judicial proceedings.
    Mistaken identifications “also erode public confidence in the
    criminal justice system as a whole.”26 In addition, when
    someone is wrongfully convicted, the real perpetrator remains
    free to victimize again. Thus, this is an issue of far-reaching
    importance to the defense, prosecutors, police departments, as
    well as to judges: All have an interest in minimizing the
    possibility of erroneous identifications. The New Jersey
    Supreme Court accurately described the situation in its
    landmark decision discussing eyewitness identifications: “At
    stake is the very integrity of the criminal justice system and the
    courts’ ability to conduct fair trials.”27
    Before I begin my discussion of the science as applied
    to this case, I want to emphasize that my point here is not to
    cast aspersions on the motives of the police or prosecutors
    involved in this investigation or to insinuate that they
    intentionally used suggestive procedures to convict Dennis. On
    the contrary, I have no reason to believe they were motivated
    by anything other than a sincere desire to bring the killer of
    Chedell Williams to justice. The science surrounding
    eyewitness identifications and reliability was simply not as
    well-understood at the time of Dennis’ investigation and trial
    as it is today.
    II. The Identifications
    A. The Crime
    As the Majority recounts and the Dissent emphasizes,
    the shooting at issue here occurred in broad daylight, at the
    intersection of Tenth Street and Nedro Avenue, in
    Philadelphia. This intersection is adjacent to the Fern Rock
    26
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 22 (citing Int’l Ass’n of Chiefs of Police, National Summit
    on Wrongful Convictions: Building a Systemic Approach to
    Prevent Wrongful Convictions (2013)).
    27
    State v. Henderson, 
    27 A.3d 872
    , 879 (N.J. 2011), holding
    modified by State v. Chen, 
    27 A.3d 930
     (N.J. 2011).
    6
    SEPTA station, where steps lead up to a ticketing office. On
    October 22, 1991, Chedell Williams and her friend Zahra
    Howard walked up these steps so that Williams could purchase
    a SEPTA Transpass. As they climbed the steps on opposite
    sides of a railing that extended up the middle, two men
    approached them head on. A man with a red sweat suit—whom
    witnesses later uniformly described as the shooter—initially
    approached Howard on her side of the railing and demanded
    her earrings. The women fled, and Howard managed to hide
    behind a nearby fruit stand while the man in the red sweat suit
    pursued Williams into the intersection of Tenth and Nedro.
    Howard later stated that, up until that point, she had not seen a
    gun. Howard watched as the man in the red struggled to take
    Williams’ earrings, pulled her close to him, and shot her in the
    neck with a “silver revolver.”28 Williams fell to the ground, and
    both men ran north on Tenth Street.
    Five other witnesses gave similar accounts of the
    shooting in police interviews conducted the day of the murder.
    First, James Cameron, a SEPTA cashier, stated that he was
    standing at Tenth Street and Nedro Avenue, chatting with
    another SEPTA employee, when he saw a man grab Williams
    in the street, pull out a “dull silver gun,” and shoot her.29
    As the two perpetrators fled, they ran past Anthony
    Overstreet and Thomas Bertha. Overstreet and Bertha were
    working on a house on North Tenth Street, near the intersection
    where the shooting occurred. After hearing screaming
    followed by a gunshot, both men saw Williams fall to the
    ground as the two perpetrators ran directly toward them. Both
    Overstreet and Bertha observed the man in the red sweat suit
    holding a chrome-plated gun in his hand.
    Overstreet’s initial interview with police is particularly
    important because he expressed confidence that he would be
    able to identify the shooter if he saw him again. Overstreet was
    about six feet from the perpetrators as they ran past him. In his
    interview, he recounted that they “both looked right in my
    face” as they fled.30 Moreover, Overstreet told officers that “he
    28
    J.A. 1495.
    29
    J.A. 1496.
    30
    J.A. 1494.
    7
    would definitely be able to identify them” because “he ha[d]
    seen the man with the red hooded jumpsuit who had the gun
    before.”31 Overstreet then explained that he might have known
    the shooter from the “area of Broad & Clearview St[reets]
    where he used to hang.”32 He later clarified that he thought he
    had seen the shooter at a house where Overstreet used to smoke
    cocaine, and he gave the police the address of that house.
    Another eyewitness who expressed confidence he could
    identify the shooter was George Ritchie. At the time of the
    shooting, Ritchie was repairing a car on Tenth Street. “He
    heard 2 [black men] hollering and running away from the train
    station and towards him in the middle of 10th St.” 33 Ritchie
    was about twenty-five feet away from them and “saw them
    clearly.”34 He told police that “he did get a good look at these
    two [black males] and can identify them if he sees them
    again.”35
    Another eyewitness, Clarence Verdell, had an
    opportunity to view the perpetrators immediately prior to the
    shooting and provided the police with a detailed description of
    the accomplice’s face. Verdell saw the perpetrators as they
    initially chased Williams and Howard down the ticketing
    office steps. A moment later, Verdell heard what sounded like
    a firecracker. He then turned and saw Williams fall to the
    ground. Verdell never saw the gun and had never seen either
    the girls or the males before. He told his interviewer that he
    would be able to recognize the accomplice, but did not get a
    good look at the shooter.
    Finally, police interviewed David LeRoy, a vendor who
    sold hot dogs at Tenth and Nedro. He stated that he saw the
    shooter pull Williams toward him and kill her. He noted that
    the shooter had on a red hat, pulled down to his eyes.
    Two weeks after the crime, the police interviewed a fruit
    vendor and his son, Joseph DiRienzo and Joseph DiRienzo, Jr.
    31
    
    Id.
    32
    
    Id.
    33
    J.A. 1493.
    34
    
    Id.
    35
    
    Id.
    8
    They had also been present at the murder scene and echoed the
    description of the crime provided by the other witnesses.
    B. The Photo Arrays
    A few days after the shooting, the police heard rumors
    that James Dennis might have been the shooter, and they
    decided to show witnesses photo arrays containing his picture.
    The detectives compiled three arrays of eight photographs
    each. Dennis’ picture was placed in the first position of the first
    array, and police used this array to solicit an identification of
    the shooter (the second array was used to attempt identification
    of the accomplice, and the third was shown thereafter to offer
    the witnesses one more opportunity to identify a suspect). At
    trial, Detective Manuel Santiago explained how he compiled
    the array: he used the “most recent photo”36 that he could find
    of Dennis and then “went into [police] files and obtained
    photos of young black males, which would not be too unlike
    the photo of Mr. James Dennis.”37 When Detective Santiago
    showed the witnesses the arrays, he instructed them: “I’m
    going to show you a photograph spread with eight photos. See
    if you recognize anyone.”38
    Only four of the nine eyewitnesses could make any
    identification from the arrays: Zahra Howard, Thomas Bertha,
    Anthony Overstreet, and James Cameron indicated that Dennis
    “look[ed] familiar.”39 However, none of these witnesses was
    initially certain about their “identifications.” For example,
    when Detective Santiago showed Howard the arrays, she
    pointed to Dennis and stated, “[t]his one looks like the guy, but
    I can’t be sure.”40 Detective Santiago next showed the same
    spreads to James Cameron. When asked if he recognized
    anyone, Cameron stated, “#1 looks familiar but I can’t be
    sure.”41 When provided the same arrays, Bertha pointed to
    Dennis and stated, “[t]hat looks like the one that was running
    36
    J.A. 165.
    37
    
    Id.
    38
    J.A. 161.
    39
    J.A. 1548.
    40
    J.A. 1537.
    41
    J.A. 1548.
    9
    with the gun.”42 Santiago probed further: “Can you be sure that
    photo #1 is the male that you saw get away from the girl and
    run at you with the gun after the gunshot?”43 It was then that
    Bertha replied, “Yes I can.”44 Detective Santiago’s follow-up
    question and Bertha’s response bear an eerie resemblance to
    the follow-up question asked of Jennifer Thompson (“Are you
    sure?”) after her response (“Positive”) following her initial
    tentative selection of Ronald Cotton from a photo array.
    A different detective showed Anthony Overstreet the
    arrays. After Overstreet had reviewed the first array, the
    detective asked “[i]s there anyone in these photos that you can
    identify?”45 Overstreet replied: “Yes, in the first set of photos,
    #1 looks like the male who shot the girl.”46 The detective then
    asked Overstreet to repeat his identification: “The male that
    you identified, is he the male you saw running up the street
    with the gun?” “Yes he is,” Overstreet confirmed.47 Thus,
    when asked about the male that he had “identified,” Overstreet
    moved from saying that Dennis’ picture “looked like” the
    shooter to affirming that Dennis “is” the shooter. This may, at
    first, appear to be a meaningless distinction that is nothing
    more than innocuous reply to a simple follow-up question.
    However, as I will discuss in greater detail below, such subtle,
    and seemingly innocent, probes can sow seeds that blossom
    into certain, albeit inaccurate, identifications.48
    Significantly, none of the remaining five eyewitnesses
    selected Dennis from the photo arrays. When a detective
    showed Verdell the spreads, he stated, “The best I can say is
    it’s either #1, #5, or #8. I concentrated more on the male that
    was directly behind Chedell and I believe him to be the
    accomplice.”49 Verdell returned to the police station a few days
    later to reexamine the photos. The second time around, he
    stated “it would be either #1 or #8 who was the [shooter]. I lean
    42
    J.A. 1555.
    43
    J.A. 1556.
    44
    
    Id.
    45
    J.A. 1565.
    46
    
    Id.
    47
    J.A. 1566.
    48
    See infra Part III.A.4.
    49
    J.A. 1576.
    10
    more towards #1 because of the build of the male but he
    definitely doesn’t have that cut of hair now. I definitely do not
    remember him having his hair cut that way.”50 Neither David
    LeRoy nor either of the DiRienzos identified Dennis from the
    arrays.
    Finally, the Commonwealth denies that police ever
    showed George Ritchie a photo array. Ritchie vigorously
    disputes this claim. In 2005, Ritchie testified at Dennis’ Post-
    Conviction Relief hearing that officers showed him an array
    during their investigation but became frustrated when Ritchie
    was unable to identify the shooter from the photos. Assuming
    arguendo that the Commonwealth’s claim regarding Ritchie is
    true, that means that the police and prosecution did not attempt
    to learn if Ritchie would have identified Dennis or someone
    else as the shooter even though Ritchie had initially expressed
    confidence in his ability to identify the shooter.
    C. The Lineup
    On December 19, 1991, about a month and a half after
    the police showed the witnesses the photo arrays, officers
    conducted an in-person lineup involving Dennis and five
    fillers. Fillers are non-suspects who are added to the line-up to
    provide the witnesses with choices. Although Dennis’ attorney
    requested that all eyewitnesses be present, only the witnesses
    who had identified Dennis from the photo array (Howard,
    Cameron, Bertha, and Overstreet) participated.
    The police had those four witnesses view the lineup at
    the same time, in the same room. Accordingly, nothing
    prevented the witnesses from observing each other’s reactions.
    As I elaborate below, studies consistently caution against
    conducting a lineup in this fashion.51 At trial, one of the
    officers that helped conduct the lineup, Detective William
    Wynn, testified that the following instructions were given to
    the four witnesses:
    We’re going to view a lineup of six men. They’ll
    be numbered from one through six from your left
    50
    J.A. 1581.
    51
    See infra Part III.A.4.
    11
    to your right. . . . I want you to look at each man
    carefully, see if you can identify any of these
    men as being involved in your incident. If you
    can identify any of these men, just remember the
    number of the man that you can identify, and
    when we’re through looking at all six men, I’ll
    order them out of this viewing area or box, as we
    call it. At that time I will call you outside of the
    lineup room, one at a time by name, and ask you
    as to whether or not you can make an
    identification. If you can, just tell me the number
    of the man that you can identify. If you can’t,
    simply tell that you cannot. It’s important that
    while you’re in the lineup room, there will be no
    pointing, talking, shouting or displaying of
    emotions so as not to influence one another’s
    decision. It will be important to you not only this
    evening but also at a later date.52
    After the witnesses viewed each person in the lineup, the police
    called them out of the room, one by one, and asked if they
    could make an identification.
    Cameron and Bertha identified Dennis. Howard pointed
    out Dennis, but was less sure, stating only “I think it was
    [him].”53 Overstreet—the witness who initially expressed the
    most confidence in his ability to identify the shooter due to his
    alleged prior exposure to him—identified an entirely different
    person from the lineup.
    D. In-Court Identifications
    At Dennis’ trial over a year later, the prosecution called
    only the three witnesses who had picked him from the photo
    arrays and lineup. When asked whether Chedell Williams’
    killer was in the courtroom, Bertha, Cameron, and Howard
    each confidently pointed to Dennis, even though all three had
    expressed doubt in their earlier identifications.
    III. The Science of Eyewitness Identifications
    52
    J.A. 226-27.
    53
    J.A. 228-29.
    12
    As I noted at the outset, we have long known that
    eyewitness identifications are not always as reliable as
    witnesses (and jurors) may believe them to be. In 1927, long
    before the explosion of research in this area, Justice Felix
    Frankfurter wrote: “[t]he hazards of [eyewitness identification]
    testimony are established by a formidable number of instances
    in the records of English and American trials.”54 In 1932, well
    before the availability of DNA analysis, Yale Law professor
    Edwin M. Borchard documented almost seventy cases
    involving eyewitness errors that caused miscarriages of
    justice.55 Over thirty years later, the Supreme Court
    acknowledged this problem in United States v. Wade.56 There,
    the Court famously proclaimed that “[t]he vagaries of
    eyewitness identification are well-known; the annals of
    criminal law are rife with instances of mistaken
    identification.”57
    In the ensuing decades, the scientific community has
    made significant strides in understanding this phenomenon.58
    A combination of basic and applied research on human visual
    perception and cognition has revealed that the reliability of
    eyewitness identifications is largely contingent on the
    conditions under which memories are created, stored, and then
    54
    Felix Frankfurter, The Case of Sacco and Vanzetti: A
    Critical Analysis for Lawyers and Laymen 30 (Universal
    Library ed., 1962).
    55
    Edwin M. Borchard, Convicting the Innocent; Sixty-Five
    Actual Errors of Criminal Justice (1932).
    56
    
    388 U.S. 218
     (1967).
    57
    
    Id. at 228
    .
    58
    See, e.g., Gary L. Wells, Nancy K. Steblay, & Jennifer E.
    Dysart, Double-Blind Photo Lineups Using Actual
    Eyewitnesses: An Experimental Test of a Sequential Versus
    Simultaneous Lineup Procedure, 39 L. & Hum. Behav. 1, 1
    (2015); Laura Smalarz & Gary L. Wells, Contamination of
    Eyewitness Self-Reports and the Mistaken-Identification
    Problem, 24 Current Directions Psychol. 120, 120 (2015);
    Brian L. Cutler & Steven D. Penrod, Mistaken Identification:
    The Eyewitness, Psychology, and the Law (1995); Eyewitness
    Testimony: Psychological Perspectives (Gary L. Wells &
    Elizabeth A. Loftus eds., 1984).
    13
    later recalled. “At its core, eyewitness identification relies on
    brain systems for visual perception and memory: The witness
    perceives the face and other aspects of the perpetrator’s
    physical appearance and bearing, stores that information in
    memory, and later retrieves the information for comparison
    with the visual percept of an individual in a lineup.”59 Research
    has shown that certain variables can impact the processes of
    these memory functions with serious implications for the
    reliability of the subsequent memories. These variables
    generally fall into two basic categories: system variables and
    estimator variables.
    A. System Variables
    System variables are the procedures and practices law
    enforcement use to elicit eyewitness identifications.60
    Examples of system variables include the instructions law
    enforcement officers give to witnesses when they ask them to
    provide identifications, the comments of police to witnesses
    during the identification process, and the types of procedures
    (lineup, photo array, etc.) used to solicit the identification.
    These factors are important not only because they heavily
    influence the reliability of identifications, but also because they
    largely lie within the exclusive control of the criminal justice
    system. The following section explores a few critical system
    variables and their effects on the accuracy of eyewitness
    identifications.
    1. Blinded versus Non-Blinded Procedures
    One of the most important system variables that law
    enforcement can control is the blinding of identification
    procedures.61 Blinding occurs when the officer administering
    an identification procedure, such as a photo array, knows who
    the suspect is but cannot determine when the witness is
    59
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 14-15.
    60
    See id. at 16, 72, 76.
    61
    See State v. Henderson, 
    27 A.3d 872
    , 896-97 (N.J. 2011),
    holding modified by State v. Chen, 
    27 A.2d 930
     (N.J. 2011);
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra, at
    24-25, 26.
    14
    viewing the suspect’s photo. “In one common ‘blinded’
    procedure, the officer places each photo in a separate envelope
    or folder and then shuffles the envelopes/folders so that only
    the witness sees the images therein.”62 This blinding can also
    be doubled: for example, when an officer who neither knows
    the suspect’s identity nor position in the photo array shows the
    array to an eyewitness. Such blinding is used to prevent the
    officer from giving the witness conscious or unconscious cues
    that can affect the witness’ identification.63
    Common sense suggests that identification procedures
    administered without some degree of blinding are inherently
    untrustworthy, and research confirms this.64 Typically, the
    greater the level of blinding, the more reliable the procedure.
    One of the foremost experts on eyewitness identifications has
    concluded that blind lineup administration is “the single most
    important characteristic that should apply to eyewitness
    identification.”65 Social psychologists believe this is crucial to
    avoiding the “expectancy effect”: “the tendency for
    experimenters to obtain results they expect . . . because they
    have helped to shape that response through their
    expectations.”66 In a seminal meta-analysis of 345 studies
    across eight broad categories of behavioral research,
    researchers found that “[t]he overall probability that there is no
    such thing as interpersonal expectancy effects is near zero.”67
    “Even seemingly innocuous words and subtle cues—pauses,
    gestures, hesitations, or smiles—can influence a witness’
    behavior.”68 Moreover, the witness usually remains completely
    62
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 25.
    63
    Id. at 25.
    64
    See Henderson, 27 A.3d at 896-97; National Research
    Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra, at 24-25, 26.
    65
    Henderson, 27 A.3d at 896 (internal quotation marks
    omitted).
    66
    Robert Rosenthal & Donald B. Rubin, Interpersonal
    Expectancy Effects: The First 345 Studies, 3 Behav. & Brain
    Sci. 377, 377 (1978).
    67
    Id.
    68
    Henderson, 
    27 A.3d 896
     (citing Ryann M. Haw & Ronald
    P. Fisher, Effects of Administrator-Witness Contact on
    Eyewitness Identification Accuracy, 89 J. Applied Psychol.
    15
    unaware of the signals she has been given or their effect on her
    identification.
    Outside the realm of law enforcement, in scientific
    experiments for instance, it is standard practice to use blinding.
    The importance of blind administration is so great that a failure
    to implement such a policy can affect even seemingly objective
    processes, such as the analysis of DNA samples. In one
    experiment, researchers gave seventeen experienced DNA
    analysts a mixed sample of DNA evidence from an actual
    crime scene—a gang rape committed in Georgia.69 All
    seventeen analysts worked at the same accredited government
    laboratory in the United States.70 Years earlier, prosecutors had
    relied on this evidence to convict a man named Kerry
    Robinson.71 In the real investigation, two analysts from the
    Georgia Bureau of Investigation concluded that Robinson
    “could not be excluded” as a suspect based on his DNA profile
    relative to the crime scene sample.72 Nevertheless, of the
    seventeen analysts involved in the study of this case, only one
    agreed that Robinson “could not be excluded.”73 Four analysts
    found that the evidence was inconclusive, and the other twelve
    said he could be excluded.74 All seventeen analysts were
    blinded to contextual information about the case. 75 Experts
    speculated that a failure to blind the DNA testing in the real
    investigation could explain the inconsistency between the
    results the Georgia Bureau of Investigation and the seventeen
    independent analysts obtained. “The difference between you
    giving them the data and saying ‘what do you make of it?’ and
    1106, 1107 (2004) and Steven E. Clark, Tanya E. Marshall, &
    Robert Rosenthal, Lineup Administrator Influences on
    Eyewitness Identification Decisions, 15 J. Experimental
    Psychol.: Applied 63, 66-73 (2009)).
    69
    Linda Geddes, Fallible DNA Evidence Can Mean Prison or
    Freedom, 2773 The New Scientist: Special Report 1, 5
    (2010).
    70
    
    Id.
    71
    
    Id.
    72
    
    Id.
    73
    
    Id.
    74
    
    Id.
    75
    
    Id.
    16
    the local district attorney giving them the data and saying
    ‘We’ve arrested someone, is his profile in here?’ is huge.”76
    The Supreme Court has recognized the significance of
    such cues for decades. In 1967, in United States v. Wade, the
    Court ruled that a pretrial lineup is a “critical stage” of
    prosecution at which a defendant had a right to the presence of
    counsel.77 The Court explained:
    The fact that the police themselves have, in a
    given case, little or no doubt that the man put up
    for identification has committed the offense, and
    that their chief pre-occupation is with the
    problem of getting sufficient proof, because he
    has not “come clean,” involves a [] danger that
    this persuasion may communicate itself even in
    a doubtful case to the witness in some way.78
    The importance of conscious and unconscious police
    persuasion cannot be overstated in the context of a trial because
    it negates the effect that strenuous cross-examination may
    otherwise have on the witness’ confidence in her identification.
    “[E]ven though cross-examination is a precious safeguard to a
    fair trial, it cannot be viewed as an absolute assurance of
    accuracy and reliability.”79 Obviously, if an eyewitness is
    completely unaware that her identification has been shaped by
    subliminal cues communicated by investigators, it is incredibly
    difficult, if not impossible, to dissuade that witness of the
    accuracy of her identification. As was true for Jennifer
    Thompson in the rape case discussed earlier, vigorous cross-
    examination may serve only to reinforce the witness’ certainty
    of her identification.80 The Supreme Court recognized in Wade
    that once a pretrial identification is made, the identifying
    witness becomes “the sole jury.”81 Thus, “[t]he trial which
    76
    
    Id. at 6
     (internal quotation marks omitted).
    77
    
    388 U.S. 218
    , 236-37 (1967).
    78
    
    Id. at 235
     (internal alterations, quotation marks, and
    citation omitted).
    79
    
    Id.
    80
    See 60 Minutes, supra.
    81
    Wade, 
    388 U.S. at 235
    .
    17
    might determine the accused’s fate may well not be that in the
    courtroom but that at the pretrial confrontation.”82
    None of the identifications in Dennis’ case were
    obtained through processes that included blinding. The officers
    who showed the photo arrays and conducted the lineup knew
    that Dennis was the suspect, and they knew his position in the
    arrays and in the lineup. As the above studies make clear, it is
    entirely possible that the officers investigating Williams’
    killing gave the witnesses unconscious cues about their
    suspicions. Dennis’ jurors would have been in a far better
    position to assess the reliability of the three courtroom
    identifications had they been informed of the importance of
    blinding procedures and their absence here.
    2. Pre-Identification Instructions
    The instructions police give witnesses prior to
    attempting to elicit an identification constitute a second
    important system variable. There is broad consensus that police
    must instruct witnesses that the suspect may not be in the lineup
    or array and that the witness should not feel compelled to
    identify anyone.83 In two meta-analyses, researchers found that
    providing this information to witnesses in advance
    significantly increased the reliability of the results in target-
    absent lineups.84 In one study, the number of people that chose
    innocent fillers in target-absent lineups increased by forty-five
    percent when the lineup administrators failed to tell the
    subjects that they need not choose a suspect.85
    82
    
    Id.
    83
    State v. Henderson, 
    27 A.3d 872
    , 897 (N.J. 2011), holding
    modified by State v. Chen, 
    27 A.2d 930
     (N.J. 2011).
    84
    See Steven E. Clark, A Re-examination of the Effects of
    Biased Lineup Instructions in Eyewitness Identification, 
    29 Law & Hum. Behav. 395
    , 418-20 (2005); Nancy M. Steblay,
    Social Influence in Eyewitness Recall: A Meta-Analytic
    Review of Lineup Instruction Effects, 
    21 Law & Hum. Behav. 283
    , 285-86, 294 (1997).
    85
    See Roy S. Malpass & Patricia G. Devine, Eyewitness
    Identification: Lineup Instructions and the Absence of the
    Offender, 66 J. Applied Psychol. 482, 485 (1981).
    18
    One hardly needs to engage in a protracted review of the
    wealth of data on this point to appreciate its implications.
    Without such instructions, witnesses may misidentify innocent
    suspects merely because they assume the suspect is present and
    the person misidentified bears the strongest resemblance to the
    actual perpetrator. Research confirms this.86 It is therefore
    critical that courts inform jurors of this system variable where
    present. Such information enables jurors to consider the impact
    that the absence of such instructions may have had on witness
    identifications.
    The record in Dennis’ case shows that the investigators
    failed to give such instructions to the witnesses. Accordingly,
    there is a real risk that the witnesses identified Dennis because
    he most closely resembled Williams’ killer. Indeed, that is a
    fair interpretation of this record. Upon seeing Dennis’ photo,
    Howard did not say “that’s him,” or “I think this is the shooter.”
    Instead, she tentatively told officers: “This one looks like the
    guy, but I can’t be sure.”87 Like Howard, Bertha and Cameron
    also initially responded to these arrays in a manner that
    strongly suggests that they selected Dennis because his
    photograph bore a closer resemblance to the shooter than any
    of the fillers. They qualified their selection of Dennis by
    saying: “Number 1 looks familiar but I can’t be sure”88; and
    “that looks like the one that was running with the gun.”89 It
    simply cannot be assumed that either statement was the
    equivalent of proclaiming: “that’s him,” or “he’s the one.”
    3. Photo Array and Lineup Construction
    Researchers have also found that the way that a photo
    array or live lineup is constructed can affect the reliability of
    the resulting identifications. A number of considerations are
    critical. First, not surprisingly, mistaken identifications are
    more likely where the suspect stands out in comparison to the
    86
    See Clark, Effects of Biased Lineup Instructions, supra, at
    421; Steblay, Social Influence in Eyewitness Recall, supra, at
    284.
    87
    J.A. 1537 (emphasis added).
    88
    J.A. 1548 (emphasis added).
    89
    J.A. 1555 (emphasis added).
    19
    fillers.90 Using fillers that are relative look-alikes forces a
    witness to examine her memory, whereas placing the suspect
    among a group of individuals that bear little resemblance to
    him causes him to stand out. “[A] biased lineup may [also]
    inflate a witness’ confidence in the identification because the
    selection process seemed easy.”91 As of yet, there is no clear
    agreement among researchers about whether fillers should
    more closely resemble a witness’ pre-lineup description of the
    suspect or the actual suspect.92 However, whether the fillers
    more closely resemble the suspect or the witness’ pre-lineup
    description, the fillers’ appearances should not make the
    suspect stand out.
    Second, all lineups should include a minimum of five
    93
    fillers. The logic here, which appears to be a matter of general
    agreement, is again clear: the greater the number of choices,
    the less the chance of making a lucky guess, and the more the
    90
    See Roy S. Malpass, Colin G. Tredoux, & Dawn
    McQuiston-Surrett, Lineup Construction and Lineup
    Fairness, in 2 The Handbook of Eyewitnesses Psychology
    155, 156-58 (2007).
    91
    State v. Henderson, 
    27 A.3d 872
    , 898 (N.J. 2011), holding
    modified by State v. Chen, 
    27 A.2d 930
     (N.J. 2011) (citing
    David F. Ross et al., When Accurate and Inaccurate
    Eyewitnesses Look the Same: A Limitation of the ‘Pop-Out’
    Effect and the 10-to 12-Second Rule, 21 Applied Cognitive
    Psychol. 677, 687 (2007) and Gary L. Wells & Amy L.
    Bradfield, Measuring the Goodness of Lineups: Parameter
    Estimation, Question Effects, and Limits to the Mock Witness
    Paradigm, 13 Applied Cognitive Psychol. S27, S30 (1999)).
    92
    Compare Steven E. Clark & Jennifer L. Tunnicliff,
    Selecting Lineup Foils in Eyewitness Identification
    Experiments: Experimental Control and Real-World
    Simulation, 25 L. & Hum. Behav. 199, 212 (2001), and Gary
    L. Wells, Sheila M. Rydell, & Eric P. Seelau, The Selection of
    Distractors for Eyewitness Lineups, 78 J. Applied Psychol.
    835, 842 (1993), with Stephen Darling, Tim Valentine, &
    Amina Memon, Selection of Lineup Foils in Operational
    Contexts, 22 Applied Cognitive Psychol. 159, 165-67 (2008).
    93
    See Nat’l Inst. of Justice, U.S. Dep’t of Justice, Eyewitness
    Evidence: A Guide for Law Enforcement 29 (1999).
    20
    witness is forced to rely on her own memory to identify the
    suspect.
    Third, for similar reasons, lineups should not feature
    more than one suspect. In its landmark decision on the issue of
    eyewitness identification, the Supreme Court of New Jersey
    emphasized that, “if multiple suspects are in the lineup, the
    reliability of a positive identification is difficult to assess, for
    the possibility of ‘lucky’ guesses is magnified.”94
    The trial judge here noted that the composition of the
    lineup was somewhat suggestive because Dennis was slightly
    shorter than the rest of the participants, causing him to stand
    out. The jurors were therefore able to consider this disparity as
    they evaluated the reliability of the identifications. However,
    the court did not provide the jury with an explanation of how
    this may have affected the witnesses’ identifications of Dennis
    in that lineup. Nor did it give the jurors information that would
    allow them to consider the lineup construction in context with
    all of the other factors that were involved in the identifications
    of Dennis.
    4. Interactions with Witnesses: Witness Feedback
    Another critical system variable is whether law
    enforcement provides a witness with any feedback or other
    information in the course of her identification. As I touched on
    in my discussion of blinding procedures, “[t]he nature of law
    enforcement interactions with the eyewitness before, during,
    and after the identification plays a role in the accuracy of
    eyewitness identifications and in the confidence expressed in
    the accuracy of those identifications by witnesses.”95 Elizabeth
    Loftus, a pioneering researcher in the field of human memory
    and cognition, has thoroughly documented the effects of
    received information on memory accuracy. In one study, she
    94
    Henderson, 27 A.3d at 898 (internal quotation marks
    omitted).
    95
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 91 (citing Steven. E. Clark, Tanya E. Marshall, & Robert
    Rosenthal, Lineup Administrator Influences on Eyewitness
    Identification Decisions, 15 J. of Experimental Psychol.:
    Applied 63 (2009)).
    21
    showed college students a video of a car crash on a country
    road.96 Afterward, she asked them to estimate how fast the car
    was going. Half the students were asked how fast the car was
    going when it “passed the barn” along the country road; the
    other half were simply asked how fast the car was going “along
    the country road.”97 A week later, she asked the same students
    whether they had seen a barn in the film. Approximately
    seventeen percent of the students who were given the “passed
    the barn” cue recalled seeing the barn in the video.98 In
    contrast, less than three percent of the non-barn cue group
    remembered a barn.99 In reality, there was no barn in the
    video.100 This demonstrates the very subtle—yet extremely
    powerful—effect statements at the time of memory recall can
    have.
    In the eyewitness identification context, such
    information often comes in the form of pre- or post-
    identification information that may reinforce an identification.
    For example, research confirms the intuitive proposition that
    when investigators give cues that suggest “you got the right
    guy,” the witness’ confidence in the identification is artificially
    inflated. A meta-analysis of twenty studies covering 2,400
    identifications found that witnesses who received feedback
    “expressed significantly more retrospective confidence in their
    decision compared with participants who received no
    feedback.”101 Such feedback not only causes a witness to
    misjudge the reliability of her identification, it can also result
    in the witness embellishing the opportunity she had to observe
    the perpetrator and the crime. “Those who receive a simple
    post-identification confirmation regarding the accuracy of their
    identification significantly inflate their reports to suggest better
    witnessing conditions at the time of the crime, stronger
    96
    See Elizabeth F. Loftus, Leading Questions and the
    Eyewitness Report, 7 Cognitive Psychol. 560, 566 (1975).
    97
    Id.
    98
    Id.
    99
    Id.
    100
    Id.
    101
    Amy B. Douglass & Nancy M. Steblay, Memory
    Distortion in Eyewitnesses: A Meta-Analysis of the Post-
    identification Feedback Effect, 20 Applied Cognitive
    Psychol. 859, 863 (2006).
    22
    memory at the time of the lineup, and sharper memory abilities
    in general.”102 Furthermore, confirmational feedback need not
    be immediate to corrupt a witness’ memory. One study showed
    that the effects of confirmational feedback may be the same
    even when it occurs two days after an identification.103 Other
    research further substantiates that these effects can withstand
    the passage of time.104
    The particular perils of witness feedback are evident in
    many of the documented cases of false identifications. Here
    again, the story of Ronald Cotton and Jennifer Thompson is
    illustrative: officer feedback led Thompson to harden her false
    memory of Cotton as her rapist. In the process, her memory
    was effectively immunized from any impact cross-examination
    may otherwise have had on her confidence, which impeded the
    jury’s ability to properly assess her testimony.
    I realize, of course, that law enforcement officials are
    not completely in control of the feedback witnesses receive.
    Interactions among witnesses outside the confines of police
    proceedings, for instance, can affect the reliability of the
    witnesses’ identifications.105 For example, if one witness talks
    102
    Id. at 864-65; see also Gary L. Wells & Amy L. Bradfield,
    “Good, You Identified the Suspect”: Feedback to
    Eyewitnesses Distorts Their Reports of the Witnessing
    Experience, 83 J. Applied Psychol. 360 (1998).
    103
    See Gary L. Wells, Elizabeth A. Olson, & Steve D.
    Charman, Distorted Retrospective Eyewitness Reports as
    Functions of Feedback and Delay, 9 J. Experimental
    Psychol.: Applied 42, 49-50 (2003).
    104
    See Jeffrey S. Neuschatz et al., The Effects of Post-
    Identification Feedback and Age on Retrospective Eyewitness
    Memory, 19 Applied Cognitive Psychol. 435, 449 (2005).
    105
    See, e.g., Rachel Zajac & Nicola Henderson, Don’t It
    Make My Brown Eyes Blue: Co-Witness Misinformation
    About a Target’s Appearance Can Impair Target-Absent
    Line-up Performance, 17 Memory 266, 275 (2009)
    (“[P]articipants who were [wrongly] told by the [co-witness]
    that the accomplice had blue eyes were significantly more
    likely than control participants to provide this information
    when asked to give a verbal description.”); Lorraine Hope et
    al., “With a Little Help from My Friends . . .”: The Role of
    23
    to another, she can alter or reinforce the other’s memory of the
    same event. “[P]ost-identification feedback does not have to be
    presented by the experimenter or an authoritative figure (e.g.
    police officer) in order to affect a witness’ subsequent crime-
    related judg[]ments.”106 In one study, after witnesses made
    incorrect identifications, they were told either that their co-
    witness made the same or a different identification.107 Not
    surprisingly, confidence rose among the witnesses that were
    told that their co-witness had agreed with them and fell among
    those told that co-witnesses had disagreed.108
    Though law enforcement officials may not be able to
    completely insulate witnesses from this system variable, police
    did not even attempt to guard against it here. The witnesses
    Co-Witness Relationship in Susceptibility to Misinformation,
    127 Acta Psychologica 476, 481 (2008) (noting that all
    participants “were susceptible to misinformation from their
    co-witness and, as a consequence, produced less accurate
    recall accounts than participants who did not interact with
    another witness”); Helen M. Paterson & Richard I. Kemp,
    Comparing Methods of Encountering Post-Event
    Information: The Power of Co-Witness Suggestion, 20
    Applied Cognitive Psychol. 1083, 1083 (2006) (“Results
    suggest that co-witness information had a particularly strong
    influence on eyewitness memory, whether encountered
    through co-witness discussion or indirectly through a third
    party.”); John S. Shaw III, Sena Garven, & James M. Wood,
    Co-Witness Information Can Have Immediate Effects on
    Eyewitness Memory Reports, 
    21 Law & Hum. Behav. 503
    ,
    503, 516 (1997) (“[W]hen participants received incorrect
    information about a co-witness’s response, they were
    significantly more likely to give that incorrect response than
    if they received no co-witness information.”); C.A. Elizabeth
    Luus & Gary L. Wells, The Malleability of Eyewitness
    Confidence: Co-Witness and Perseverance Effects, 79 J.
    Applied Psychol. 714, 717-18 (1994).
    106
    Elin M. Skagerberg, Co-Witness Feedback in Line-ups, 21
    Applied Cognitive Psychol. 489, 494 (2007).
    107
    Luus & Wells, The Malleability of Eyewitness Confidence,
    supra, at 717-18.
    108
    Id.; see also Skagerberg, supra, at 494-95 (showing similar
    results).
    24
    who identified Dennis viewed the lineup in the same room and
    at the same time. Detective Wynn’s instruction to the witnesses
    not to react or show emotion during the lineup reduces the risk
    of feedback, but this instruction did not eliminate it. Therefore,
    the risk that the witnesses’ reactions may have influenced the
    results of the lineup cannot be discounted, and the jurors should
    have been instructed about this possibility.
    Furthermore, the record of Bertha’s photo array
    identification establishes the existence of at least some officer-
    to-witness feedback. Detective Santiago asked Bertha to affirm
    his identification: “Can you be sure that photo #1 is the male
    that you saw get away from the girl and run at you with the gun
    after the gunshot?”109 Only then did Bertha state he was
    “sure”110 Dennis was the shooter as opposed to his initial
    statement that Dennis’ photo merely “look[ed] like”111 the
    shooter.
    I am not suggesting that Detective Santiago’s question
    ultimately negated Bertha’s ability to make an in-court
    identification. Nor am I suggesting that Detective Santiago
    intentionally tried to reinforce Bertha’s confidence in his
    identification or “prime” him for a subsequent in-court
    identification. I am, however, suggesting that the jury should
    have been informed of how Detective Santiago’s response to
    Bertha’s initial selection of Dennis’ photo may have affected
    the reliability of Bertha’s lineup identification and, as I next
    explain, his subsequent in-court identification as well.
    5. Multiple viewings
    Another crucial system variable—and one that was
    clearly present here—is the opportunity to engage in multiple
    viewings of a suspect. Allowing a witness to view a suspect
    more than once during an investigation can have a powerful
    corrupting effect on that witness’ memory. It creates a risk that
    the witness will merely identify a suspect based on her past
    views of him rather than her memory of the relevant event.
    Meta-analysis has revealed that while fifteen percent of
    109
    J.A. 1556.
    110
    Id.
    111
    J.A. 1555.
    25
    witnesses mistakenly identify an innocent person during the
    first viewing of a lineup, that percentage jumps to thirty-seven
    percent if the witness previously viewed that innocent person’s
    mug shot.112 This phenomenon is known as “mug shot
    exposure.” Related studies have also shown the existence of
    “mug shot commitment.” This refers to the fact that once
    witnesses positively identify an innocent person from a mug
    shot, “a significant number” then “reaffirm[] their false
    identification” in a later photo lineup.113 This is true even when
    the real suspect is actually present in the lineup.114
    Nonetheless, multiple viewings seem to have no impact on the
    reliability of a lineup identification “when a picture of the
    suspect was not present in photographs examined earlier”115 by
    the witness.
    The incredible story of John White that I mentioned at
    the outset serves as a powerful example of the impact that
    multiple viewings can have on witness identifications. In 1979,
    John White was accused of breaking into the home of a
    seventy-four-year-old woman and then beating and raping
    her.116 After the victim picked White out of a photo array, he
    was placed in a live lineup.117 White was the only person
    repeated in both the photo array and live lineup. The victim
    112
    Kenneth A. Deffenbacher, Brian H. Bornstein, & Steven
    D. Penrod, Mugshot Exposure Effects: Retroactive
    Interference, Mugshot Commitment, Source Confusion, and
    Unconscious Transference, 30 L. & Hum. Behav. 287, 299
    (2006).
    113
    See Gunter Koehnken, Roy S. Malpass, Michael, S.
    Wogalter, Forensic Applications of Line-Up Research, in
    Psychological Issues in Eyewitness Identification 205, 219
    (Siegfried L. Sporer, Roy S. Malpass, Gunter Koehnken eds.,
    1996).
    114
    Id.
    115
    Id. at 218. However, as noted earlier, Dennis’ picture was
    presented in photo arrays that witnesses saw prior to viewing
    the lineup.
    116
    The Innocence Project, John Jerome White,
    http://www.innocenceproject.org/cases/john-jerome-white/
    (last visited July 5, 2016).
    117
    Id.
    26
    identified White from that live lineup.118 DNA analysis later
    revealed that the victim’s actual assailant was not White, but a
    man named James Parham. By the cruelest of ironies, Parham
    had actually been placed in the live lineup with White as a filler
    when the victim identified White as her assailant. Despite
    having an opportunity to view her real rapist in the lineup, the
    victim affirmed her initial selection of White. Her erroneous
    identification led to a life sentence for White, who served
    twenty-seven years before the DNA evidence exonerated
    him.119
    A leading researcher offered the following explanation
    of White’s case:
    The witness had already identified John White
    from a photographic lineup. And, John White
    was the only person who was in both the
    photographic lineup and the live lineup. Hence,
    what we have here, I believe, is a strong
    example of how a mistaken identification from
    one procedure (a photo lineup) is repeated in
    the next procedure (a live lineup) even though
    the real perpetrator is clearly present in the
    second procedure. Repeating the same mistake
    can occur for several reasons. One possibility is
    that the initial mistaken identification changed
    the memory of the witness; in effect John
    White’s face “became” her memory of the
    attacker and the face of Parham no longer
    existed once she mistakenly identified John
    White. Another possibility is that she
    approached the live lineup with one goal in
    mind - find the man she had identified from the
    photos. Perhaps she never really looked at
    Parham because she quickly saw the man she
    identified from photos and did not need to look
    further.120
    118
    Id.
    119
    Id.
    120
    Gary Wells, The Mistaken Identification of John Jerome
    White,
    27
    The witnesses who identified Dennis at trial were given
    not two, but three, opportunities to view Dennis. These
    multiple views could help explain why initially tentative
    guesses became certain identifications by the time the
    witnesses took the stand. The possibility cannot be ignored that
    the witnesses here, like the victims in White and Cotton’s
    cases, selected Dennis in the live lineup because they were
    looking for the man they had already identified from the photo
    arrays. The jurors should have been informed of the impact of
    multiple viewings so that they could have considered that
    effect in determining how much weight to afford the lineup
    identifications and/or the in-court identifications. Absent that
    information, the jurors were ill equipped to assess the
    possibility that Howard, Bertha, and Cameron’s lineup and in-
    court identifications of Dennis may have been based on prior
    viewings of his picture rather than their memories of the crime.
    These system variables on the accuracy of eyewitness
    identifications highlight the importance of the procedures law
    enforcement officials use when soliciting identifications. As
    the Oregon Supreme Court has explained, “it is incumbent on
    courts and law enforcement personnel to treat eyewitness
    memory just as carefully as they would other forms of trace
    evidence, like DNA, bloodstains, or fingerprints, the
    evidentiary value of which can be impaired or destroyed by
    contamination. Like those forms of evidence, once
    contaminated, a witness’ original memory is very difficult to
    retrieve.”121
    B. Estimator Variables
    Estimator variables are the conditions present during
    memory formation or storage. They can also have a substantial
    impact on the reliability of eyewitness identifications.122
    https://public.psych.iastate.edu/glwells/The_Misidentification
    _of_John_White.pdf (last visited July 6, 2016).
    121
    State v. Lawson, 
    291 P.3d 673
    , 689 (Or. 2012).
    122
    See State v. Henderson, 
    27 A.3d 872
    , 895 (N.J. 2011),
    holding modified by State v. Chen, 
    27 A.2d 930
     (N.J. 2011);
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra, at
    1, 72, 92-93.
    28
    Crucial estimator variables include, but are not limited to, the
    amount of stress on the observer, the presence of weapons, and
    visibility conditions. Unlike system variables, estimator
    variables are beyond the control of the criminal justice system.
    Nevertheless, asking jurors to consider eyewitness
    identifications without properly instructing them on the impact
    that such estimator variables may have had erects yet another
    barrier to accurate evaluation of identifications.
    1. Stress
    First, high levels of stress at the time of memory
    formation can negatively impact a witness’ ability to
    accurately identify the perpetrator.123 Stressful conditions
    impair a witness’ ability to identify key characteristics of an
    individual’s face.124 A meta-analysis of the effect of high stress
    on eyewitness identifications found that stress hampers both
    eyewitness recall and identification accuracy.125
    A recent study examining the effects of stress on
    identifications at a U.S. Military mock prisoner-of-war camp
    illustrates this phenomenon.126 In this study, 509 active-duty
    military personnel, with an average of 4.2 years in the service,
    underwent two types of interrogations.127 After twelve hours of
    confinement, participants experienced either a high-stress
    interrogation involving real physical confrontation followed by
    a low-stress interrogation without physical confrontation, or
    123
    See Charles A. Morgan III et al., Accuracy of Eyewitness
    Identification Is Significantly Associated with Performance
    on a Standardized Test of Face Recognition, 30 Int’l J.L. &
    Psychiatry 213 (2007); Kenneth A. Deffenbacher et al., A
    Meta-Analytic Review of the Effects of High Stress on
    Eyewitness Memory, 28 L. & Hum. Behav. 687 (2004);
    Morgan et al., Accuracy of Eyewitness Memory, supra.
    124
    See Charles A. Morgan III et al., Misinformation Can
    Influence Memory for Recently Experienced, Highly Stressful
    Events, 36 Int’l J.L. & Psychiatry 11, 15 (2013).
    125
    Deffenbacher et al., Effects of High Stress, supra, at 699.
    126
    Morgan et al., Accuracy of Eyewitness Memory, supra, at
    266.
    127
    Id. at 267-68.
    29
    vice versa.128 The interrogations were separated by
    approximately four hours, and about half the participants
    received the high-stress interrogation first, while the other half
    experienced the low-stress interrogation first.129 Both
    interrogations lasted about forty minutes.130 Twenty-four hours
    after the interrogations, the participants were asked to identify
    their interrogators from live lineups, sequential photo arrays,
    or simultaneous photo arrays.131 Across all identification
    procedures, subjects had far more difficulty accurately
    identifying their high-stress interrogators.132 Sixty-two percent
    of subjects could identify their low-stress interrogators in live
    lineups, while only thirty percent of subjects could accurately
    identify their high-stress interrogators from such lineups.133
    Furthermore, fifty-six percent of subjects erroneously
    identified a person who was not their interrogator (false
    positive) during live lineups, while only thirty-eight percent of
    subjects did so for their low-stress interrogations.134
    This study is particularly stunning when one considers
    that the subjects all had a prolonged and unobstructed
    opportunity to view their interrogators, and the interrogators
    were all within arm’s reach of their subjects. The subjects’
    ability to see the faces of their interrogators was therefore
    exponentially better than the opportunity witnesses to most
    violent crimes have to see perpetrators. Their views were
    certainly better than those of Howard, Bertha, and Cameron.
    As the study’s authors explained,
    [c]ontrary to the popular conception that most
    people would never forget the face of a clearly
    seen individual who had physically confronted
    them and threatened them for more than 30
    min[utes], . . . [t]hese data provide robust
    evidence that eyewitness memory for persons
    encountered during events that are personally
    128
    Id. at 268.
    129
    Id.
    130
    Id.
    131
    Id. at 269-70.
    132
    Id. at 272.
    133
    Id.
    134
    Id.
    30
    relevant, highly stressful, and realistic in nature
    may be subject to substantial error.135
    Notably, this study further found that memories formed during
    a stressful event are highly susceptible to modifications from
    misinformation received after the event. That has particular
    relevance here given the presence of the system variables
    described above.
    Stress almost certainly affected all of the witnesses who
    saw Chedell Williams gunned down. The shooting
    undoubtedly caused Howard—the prosecution’s star
    witness—a significant amount of stress. Not only was she
    herself chased, but she also watched as the perpetrator grabbed
    her best friend and shot her at point-blank range. It is not
    surprising that multiple witnesses recalled hearing Howard
    screaming. Stress also likely affected Bertha’s ability to later
    make an accurate identification. He saw the shooter as the
    shooter rushed him, head on, pistol in hand. Jurors cannot
    properly assess eyewitness identification testimony where
    stress was present at memory formation unless this variable is
    explained to them.
    2. Weapon Focus
    The presence of weapons is a second, and related,
    estimator variable. The National Research Council has stated,
    “[r]esearch suggests that the presence of a weapon at the scene
    of a crime captures the visual attention of the witness and
    impedes the ability of the witness to attend to other important
    features of the visual scene, such as the face of the perpetrator
    . . . . The ensuing lack of memory of these other key features
    may impair recognition of a perpetrator in a subsequent
    lineup.”136 In 1992, an analysis of weapon focus studies
    concluded that the presence of a weapon significantly reduced
    witnesses’ ability to recall their perpetrators.137 A more recent
    study of the pertinent literature confirms that weapon presence
    135
    Id. at 274.
    136
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 93.
    137
    Nancy K. Steblay, A Meta-analytic Review of the Weapon
    Focus Effect, 16 L. & Hum. Behav. 413, 415-17 (1992).
    31
    has a consistently negative impact on both feature recall
    accuracy and identification accuracy.138
    Here, the jury was never informed that visibility of the
    perpetrator’s gun may well have hampered the witnesses’
    ability to observe and/or form an accurate memory of the
    assailant’s face. Howard, Bertha, and Cameron all provided
    clear descriptions of the gun, revealing their focus on it. But
    the jury was never informed of how this powerful estimator
    variable may have affected them.
    3. Memory Decay
    The period between memory formation and memory
    recall is known as the “retention interval” and constitutes
    another important estimator variable. A meta-analysis of fifty-
    three facial memory studies found “that memory strength will
    be weaker at longer retention intervals than at briefer ones.”139
    Most of the studies analyzed in this meta-analysis examined
    retention intervals of less than one month, many of them less
    than one week. This meta-analysis also found agreement
    among experts that “the rate of memory loss for an event is
    greatest right after an event and then levels off over time.”140
    Furthermore,
    [t]he effect of the retention interval also is
    influenced by the strength and quality of the
    initial memory that is encoded, which, in turn,
    138
    Jonathan M. Fawcett et al., Of Guns and Geese: A Meta-
    Analytic Review of the ‘Weapon Focus’ Literature, Psychol.,
    Crime & L. 1, 22 (2011).
    139
    Kenneth A. Deffenbacher et al., Forgetting the Once-Seen
    Face: Estimating the Strength of an Eyewitness’s Memory
    Representation, 14 J. Experimental Psychol.: Applied 139,
    142 (2008); see also Carol Krafka & Steven
    Penrod, Reinstatement of Context in a Field Experiment on
    Eyewitness Identification, 49 J. Personality & Soc.
    Psychol. 58, 65 (1985) (finding a substantial increase in the
    misidentification rate in target-absent arrays from two to
    twenty-four hours after event).
    140
    Deffenbacher et al., Forgetting the Once-Seen Face,
    supra, at 143.
    32
    may be influenced by other estimator variables
    associated with witnessing the crime (such as the
    degree of visual attention) and viewing factors
    (such as distance, lighting, and exposure
    duration).141
    The in-court identifications of Dennis were made nearly one
    year after the crime occurred—a very significant retention
    interval under the relevant studies. Research is hardly
    necessary to appreciate the difficulty of trying to accurately
    recall the details of this chaotic and traumatizing event—
    lasting only a matter of seconds—a year later. The jurors
    should have been informed of that difficulty and its possible
    impact on the accuracy of these identifications. They were not.
    4. Exposure Duration, Distance, and Lighting
    As one would expect, exposure duration, distance, and
    lighting affect the accuracy of eyewitness identifications.142
    The charge that was given here did alert the jurors to the impact
    of these factors on the accuracy of an identification.143
    141
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 99.
    142
    Brian H. Bornstein et al., Effects of Exposure Time and
    Cognitive Operations on Facial Identification Accuracy: A
    Meta-Analysis of Two Variables Associated with Initial
    Memory Strength, 18 Psychol., Crime & L. 473 (2012) (meta-
    analysis of the effect of exposure duration on facial
    identification accuracy); R.C.L. Lindsay et al., How
    Variations in Distance Affect Eyewitness Reports and
    Identification Accuracy, 
    32 Law & Hum. Behav. 526
     (2008)
    (study of the effect of distance on identification accuracy).
    143
    Race-bias—referring to the relative races of the witness
    and perpetrator—is another crucial estimator variable.
    Although this variable does not raise concerns here because
    the three eyewitnesses and the perpetrator were all Black, it is
    nevertheless worth noting because it again shows the extent to
    which circumstances (other than opportunity to observe) can
    greatly impact the reliability of an eyewitness identification.
    Research has thoroughly documented a phenomenon known
    as “own-race bias” wherein people more accurately identify
    faces within their own race as compared to those of members
    33
    However, as I explain in the following section, it did not
    adequately convey the impact these factors can have on in-
    court identifications.
    C. The Dissent’s Dismissal of Estimator Variables
    As the Majority recounts, nearly all of the eyewitnesses
    who mentioned the shooter’s height in their initial police
    interviews described him as between 5’8” and 5’10”.144 The
    witnesses also described the shooter as having a dark
    complexion and weighing about 170 to 190 pounds. James
    Dennis is 5’5” tall and weighed between 125 and 132 pounds
    at the time of trial.
    The Dissent dismisses and tries to rationalize away this
    considerable size discrepancy. In an attempt to reinforce the
    reliability of the three witnesses, the Dissent relies on research
    that concludes eyewitnesses tend to underestimate the height
    and weight of taller and heavier targets and overestimate the
    height and weight of shorter and lighter targets.145 The
    of a different racial group. See National Research Council,
    Identifying the Culprit, supra, at 96; Roy S. Malpass &
    Jerome Kravitz, Recognition for Faces of Own and Other
    Race, 13 J. Personality & Soc. Psychol. 330 (1969). The
    Innocence Project analyzed 297 DNA exonerations and found
    that a cross-racial misidentification occurred in forty-two
    percent of the cases in which an erroneous eyewitness
    identification was made. Edwin Grimsley, What Wrongful
    Convictions Teach Us about Racial Inequality, The
    Innocence Project (Sept. 26, 2012),
    http://www.innocenceproject.org/Content/What_Wrongful_C
    onvictions_Teach_ Us_About_Racial_Inequality.php.
    144
    In fact, one eyewitness—Joseph DiRienzo Jr.—described
    the shooter’s height in terms of his own height: “about my
    height, about 5’9”.” J.A. 1649.
    145
    Dissent at 3 (Fisher, J.) (citing Christian A. Meissner,
    Siegfried L. Sporer, & Jonathan W. Schooler, Person
    Descriptions as Eyewitness Evidence, in 2 Handbook of
    Eyewitness Psychology 3, 8 (Rod C.L. Lindsay et al. eds.,
    2007) and Rhona H. Flin & John W. Shepherd, Tall Stories:
    Eyewitnesses’ Ability to Estimate Height and Weight
    Characteristics, 5 Hum. Learning 29, 34 (1986)).
    34
    Dissent’s use of that research is cruelly ironic. The finding of
    those studies was not that we should disregard eyewitness
    inaccuracy, as the Dissent’s citation implies. Those researchers
    found just the opposite. The studies discovered that eyewitness
    identifications are frequently unreliable.146 As two of the
    researchers explained, “[t]he width and range of subjects’
    errors for the targets’ height and weight in this study showed
    clearly that some subjects experience great difficulty in
    accurately     judging      another     individual’s    physical
    characteristics.” 147
    The Dissent also focuses on the strength of three
    estimator variables. The Dissent reminds us that “the visual
    conditions were excellent,”148 the witnesses saw the shooter at
    “close range,”149 and none of the identifications were cross-
    racial.150 This is not only misleading, it also ignores many other
    system and estimator variables that were at least as important
    (if not more important) than the ones the Dissent focuses upon.
    I agree that the lighting was good. However, the lighting
    here was likely no better than that in the rooms where the
    military personnel who failed to recognize the faces of their
    interrogators were questioned under stressful conditions.151
    The witnesses here were in close proximity to the shooter.
    However, they were not as close as Jennifer Thompson was to
    Ronald Cotton or John White’s accuser was to him. Moreover,
    these witnesses only had a matter of seconds to view the
    perpetrators. Howard saw the shooter as he rushed towards her,
    Cameron in the seconds the crime occurred, and Bertha as the
    shooter ran past him. All of the witnesses’ views occurred
    under highly stressful circumstances and their focus appears to
    have been as much on the gun in the shooter’s hand as on the
    146
    Meissner, Sporer, & Schooler, Person Descriptions as
    Eyewitness Evidence, supra, at 8 (citing the Flin and
    Shepherd study); Flin & Shepherd, Tall Stories, supra, at 36.
    147
    Flin & Shepherd, Tall Stories, supra, at 36.
    148
    Dissent at 2 (Fisher, J.).
    149
    Id.
    150
    Id. at 3 (citing Arizona v. Youngblood, 
    488 U.S. 51
    , 72
    n.8).
    151
    Morgan et al., Accuracy of Eyewitness Memory, supra, at
    268.
    35
    shooter’s face. As I will explain in greater detail below, the
    charge that the jurors received did not focus their attention on
    any of those considerations.
    The lack of blinding, the presence of officer feedback,
    the fact that the record suggests that the witnesses thought they
    had to select someone from the photo arrays, the multiple
    viewings of Dennis, and the witnesses’ viewing of the live
    lineup in the same room, all suggest that the identifications
    may have been corrupted by cues from law enforcement and/or
    other witnesses.
    We would be justifiably skeptical of any clinical trial
    where the researcher knew which sample was a placebo or who
    received the placebo. Yet, we do not think twice about allowing
    someone to be convicted of a crime and sentenced to death on
    the basis of identification procedures where the investigator
    presenting the photo array or lineup is fully aware of who the
    suspect is. The witnesses who identified Dennis at trial had not
    one, but three opportunities to view Dennis. And none of the
    procedures included any level of blinding. Nothing in this
    record suggests that anyone other than Dennis was present in
    both the photo array and lineup. Yet, the jury was not made
    aware of the potential importance of any of these
    considerations. That should sound a note of caution in
    assessing the reliability of these identifications.
    Finally, we should not ignore the fact that the majority
    of the witnesses that police interviewed after the crime were
    unable to identify Dennis as the shooter. Jurors did not know
    that Joseph DiRienzo, Joseph DiRienzo, Jr., Clarence Verdell,
    and David LeRoy all were unable to identify Dennis from the
    photo array. Although Anthony Overstreet did identify Dennis
    from this array, he did not think Dennis was the shooter once
    he had an opportunity to view him in the lineup. Overstreet had
    expressed the most confidence in his ability to positively
    identify the shooter during the initial police interviews.152
    152
    The fact that Overstreet and other non-identifying
    witnesses could theoretically have been called by defense
    counsel is no answer. No defense attorney in her right mind
    would put such witnesses on the stand, knowing that the
    witnesses had seen photographs of the defendant and would
    36
    When the totality of circumstances is viewed in context, the
    evidence of Dennis’ guilt is not as uncompromising as the
    Dissent suggests.
    Moreover, concerns about the reliability of these
    identifications should not be assuaged by evidence that was
    introduced in an attempt to corroborate the identification
    testimony. As the Majority explains, aside from eyewitness
    testimony, the Commonwealth presented testimony from
    Charles Thompson, who told detectives that he saw Dennis
    with a gun the night of the murder. Thompson identified an
    illustrative .32 chrome revolver (previously admitted as a
    Commonwealth exhibit) as being similar to the one he saw in
    Dennis’s possession. As the Majority notes, Thompson had an
    open drug-possession charge at the time of trial, but testified
    that he was not expecting help from the Commonwealth in
    exchange for his testimony. Years after trial, Thompson
    recanted his testimony, averring that he had never seen Dennis
    with a gun and that his testimony at trial was false.
    I realize, of course, that it can be argued that
    Thompson’s recantation is not necessarily relevant to the force
    of the eyewitness identifications because it happened after trial.
    However, his testimony clearly corroborated the identification
    evidence, and it underscores the dangers of the inadequate
    identification instructions. The fact that the jurors were not
    given a sufficient basis to assess the identifications of Dennis
    severely undermined the potential force of Dennis’ alibi
    testimony. Why would jurors believe such testimony
    (especially since it was offered by his father) when three
    neutral witnesses identified Dennis as the shooter? Had the
    jurors been able to assess the identifications with an
    appropriate understanding of the variables I have discussed,
    Dennis’s alibi testimony may well have had much greater
    force, and jurors would have been in a better position to weigh
    Dennis’ alibi against Thompson’s testimony that appeared to
    corroborate the three eyewitnesses. That is particularly true
    when we factor in the evidence of the Cason receipt that the
    know the person sitting at counsel table was the person the
    police had arrested for the crime. A criminal justice system
    seeking fairness and justice should not countenance the
    creation of such an absurd dilemma.
    37
    Majority explains.153 The Cason receipt could have further
    bolstered Dennis’ alibi testimony and raised a reasonable doubt
    about the accuracy of the eyewitness identifications.
    IV. Manson v. Brathwaite and its Progeny
    In 1977, the Supreme Court established a basic
    framework for determining whether admission of a particular
    identification violates a defendant’s Fourteenth Amendment
    right to due process in Manson v. Brathwaite.154 Under the
    Manson test, a court must first assess whether the eyewitness
    identification procedure at issue was, under the “totality of the
    circumstances,” unnecessarily suggestive.155 If the
    identification procedure was not unnecessarily suggestive, the
    inquiry ends. However, if it was unduly suggestive, a court
    must considers five factors to determine whether the resulting
    identification is nonetheless reliable. Those factors, drawn
    from the Supreme Court’s prior decision in Neil v. Biggers,156
    are: (1) “the opportunity of the witness to view the criminal at
    the time of the crime,” (2) “the witness’ degree of attention,”
    (3) “the accuracy of the witness’ prior description of the
    criminal,” (4) “the level of certainty demonstrated by the
    witness at the confrontation,” and (5) “the length of time
    between the crime and the confrontation.”157 These factors are
    weighed against “the corrupting effect of the suggestive
    identification itself.”158 Manson emphasizes that “reliability is
    the linchpin in determining the admissibility of identification
    testimony.”159
    Since Manson, more than 2,000 scientific studies have
    been conducted on the reliability of eyewitness
    identifications.160 As I have explained, we now understand that
    153
    See Maj. Op. at 13, 17, 18-20.
    154
    
    432 U.S. 98
     (1977).
    155
    
    Id. at 106
     (internal quotation marks omitted).
    156
    
    409 U.S. 188
     (1972).
    157
    
    Id. at 199-200
    ; Manson, 
    432 U.S. at 114
    .
    158
    Manson, 
    432 U.S. at 114
    .
    159
    
    Id.
    160
    State v. Henderson, 
    27 A.3d 872
    , 892 (N.J. 2011), holding
    modified by State v. Chen, 
    27 A.2d 930
     (N.J. 2011); Morgan
    et al., Accuracy of Eyewitness Memory, supra, at 265.
    38
    even seemingly neutral identification procedures can lead to
    unreliable results due to a myriad of subtle variables. We also
    now know that a witness’ subjective confidence in the accuracy
    of her identification has limited correlation to the reliability of
    her identification. As the National Research Council
    emphasized in its recent report on eyewitness identifications,
    the Manson test “treats factors such as the confidence of a
    witness as independent markers of reliability when, in fact, it
    is now well established that confidence judgments may vary
    over time and can be powerfully swayed by many factors.” 161
    The Supreme Court recently reaffirmed the approach
    laid out in Manson in Perry v. New Hampshire.162 There, an
    eyewitness saw a man break into a car, called the police, and
    then told the responding officer that a man standing in the
    building’s parking lot was the perpetrator.163 That man was
    then arrested and convicted in state court. On appeal to the
    Supreme Court, he argued that the highly suggestive nature of
    the identification process entitled him to a suppression hearing
    prior to trial in order to determine the admissibility of the
    identification.164 The Supreme Court rejected this argument. It
    held that the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment
    only requires such a hearing when law enforcement arranged
    the unnecessarily suggestive circumstances under which the
    identification was obtained.165 The Court “linked the due
    process check, not to suspicion of eyewitness testimony
    generally, but only to improper police arrangement of the
    circumstances surrounding an identification.”166
    In reaching this conclusion, the Court acknowledged the
    scientific research on eyewitness reliability.167 It recognized
    161
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 6.
    162
    
    132 S. Ct. 716
     (2012).
    163
    
    Id. at 721-22
    .
    164
    
    Id. at 722-23
    .
    165
    
    Id. at 730
    .
    166
    
    Id. at 726
     (emphasis added).
    167
    
    Id. at 727
     (“As one of Perry’s amici points out, many other
    factors bear on “the likelihood of misidentification,”—for
    example, the passage of time between exposure to and
    identification of the defendant, whether the witness was under
    stress when he first encountered the suspect, how much time
    39
    the importance of this body of science and urged more robust
    jury instructions. As the Court explained, “[e]yewitness-
    specific jury instructions, which many federal and state courts
    have adopted, [] warn the jury to take care in appraising
    identification evidence.”168 The Court also stressed the
    importance of evidentiary rules “to exclude relevant evidence
    if its probative value is substantially outweighed by its
    prejudicial impact or potential for misleading the jury.”169
    Thus, instead of considering the relevant system and estimator
    variables “under the banner of due process,”170 the Supreme
    Court advocated that courts incorporate the relevant scientific
    findings through other avenues, such as jury instructions and
    evidentiary rules.
    Some state courts have heeded Perry’s call and created
    new procedures and evidentiary frameworks that minimize the
    risks associated with erroneous eyewitness identifications.
    Most notably, in a unanimous decision, the Supreme Court of
    New Jersey re-wrote the state’s rules governing the admission
    of eyewitness identifications in State v. Henderson.171 Prior to
    that decision, New Jersey courts relied on the Manson test to
    determine whether certain identifications were admissible.172
    Henderson, however, held that the Manson test did “not offer
    an adequate measure for reliability or sufficiently deter
    inappropriate police conduct.” The court also concluded that
    Manson “overstates the jury’s inherent ability to evaluate
    the witness had to observe the suspect, how far the witness
    was from the suspect, whether the suspect carried a weapon,
    and the race of the suspect and the witness.” (internal citation
    omitted)).
    168
    
    Id. at 728-29
     (internal footnote omitted).
    169
    
    Id. at 729
    .
    170
    
    Id. at 727
     (“To embrace Perry’s view would thus entail a
    vast enlargement of the reach of due process as a constraint
    on the admission of evidence.”).
    171
    
    27 A.3d 872
     (N.J. 2011), holding modified by State v.
    Chen, 
    27 A.2d 930
     (N.J. 2011).
    172
    See 
    id. at 918
    ; State v. Madison, 
    536 A.2d 254
    , 258-59
    (N.J. 1988) holding modified by State v. Henderson, 
    27 A.3d 872
     (N.J. 2011).
    40
    evidence offered by eyewitnesses who honestly believe their
    testimony is accurate.”173
    To remedy these problems, the court pioneered a two-
    part revision to the judicial procedures related to eyewitness
    identifications. First, the court changed the requirements
    related to pre-trial hearings on the admissibility of eyewitness
    identifications. After Henderson, a defendant can now obtain a
    pre-trial hearing if she can show “some evidence of
    suggestiveness that could lead to a mistaken identification.”174
    The court specified that this “evidence, in general, must be tied
    to a system—and not an estimator—variable.”175 The trial
    173
    Henderson, 27 A.3d at 878.
    174
    Id. at 920.
    175
    Id. The New Jersey Supreme Court instructed courts to
    consider the following non-exhaustive list of system variables
    when deciding whether to hold a pre-trial hearing:
    1. Blind Administration. Was the lineup
    procedure performed double-blind? If double-
    blind testing was impractical, did the police use
    a technique like the “envelope method”
    described above, to ensure that the
    administrator had no knowledge of where the
    suspect appeared in the photo array or lineup?
    2. Pre-identification Instructions. Did the
    administrator provide neutral, pre-identification
    instructions warning that the suspect may not be
    present in the lineup and that the witness should
    not feel compelled to make an identification?
    3. Lineup Construction. Did the array or lineup
    contain only one suspect embedded among at
    least five innocent fillers? Did the suspect stand
    out from other members of the lineup?
    4. Feedback. Did the witness receive any
    information or feedback, about the suspect or
    the crime, before, during, or after the
    identification procedure?
    5. Recording Confidence. Did the administrator
    record the witness’ statement of confidence
    immediately after the identification, before the
    possibility of any confirmatory feedback?
    41
    court can end this hearing at any time “if it finds from the
    testimony that defendant’s threshold allegation of
    suggestiveness is groundless.”176 But if the defendant’s claim
    is meritorious, the trial judge must weigh both system and
    estimator variables177 to decide whether, under the “totality of
    6. Multiple Viewings. Did the witness view the
    suspect more than once as part of multiple
    identification procedures? Did police use the
    same fillers more than once?
    7. Showups. Did the police perform a showup
    more than two hours after an event? Did the
    police warn the witness that the suspect may not
    be the perpetrator and that the witness should
    not feel compelled to make an identification?
    8. Private Actors. Did law enforcement elicit
    from the eyewitness whether he or she had
    spoken with anyone about the identification
    and, if so, what was discussed?
    9. Other Identifications Made. Did the
    eyewitness initially make no choice or choose a
    different suspect or filler?
    Id. at 920-21.
    176
    Id. at 920.
    177
    The New Jersey Supreme Court told courts to consider the
    following, non-exhaustive list of estimator variables in
    assessing the reliability of an eyewitness identification:
    1. Stress. Did the event involve a high level of
    stress?
    2. Weapon focus. Was a visible weapon used
    during a crime of short duration?
    3. Duration. How much time did the witness
    have to observe the event?
    4. Distance and Lighting. How close were the
    witness and perpetrator? What were the lighting
    conditions at the time?
    5. Witness Characteristics. Was the witness
    under the influence of alcohol or drugs? Was
    age a relevant factor under the circumstances of
    the case?
    42
    the circumstances,” the defendant has “demonstrated a very
    substantial likelihood of irreparable misidentification.”178 If
    the trial court concludes that the defendant has met this burden,
    the court must suppress the identification evidence.179
    Second, the New Jersey Supreme Court directed the
    state judicial system to develop “enhanced jury charges on
    eyewitness identification for trial judges to use.”180 As the
    court explained, “[w]e anticipate that identification evidence
    will continue to be admitted in the vast majority of cases. To
    help jurors weigh that evidence, they must be told about
    relevant factors and their effect on reliability.”181
    6. Characteristics of Perpetrator. Was the
    culprit wearing a disguise? Did the suspect have
    different facial features at the time of the
    identification?
    7. Memory decay. How much time elapsed
    between the crime and the identification?
    8. Race-bias. Does the case involve a cross-
    racial identification?
    ...
    9. Opportunity to view the criminal at the time
    of the crime.
    10. Degree of attention.
    11. Accuracy of prior description of the
    criminal.
    12. Level of certainty demonstrated at the
    confrontation.
    Did the witness express high confidence at the
    time of the identification before receiving any
    feedback or other information?
    13. The time between the crime and the
    confrontation. (Encompassed fully by “memory
    decay” above.)
    Id. at 921-22.
    178
    Id. at 920.
    179
    Id.
    180
    Id. at 878.
    181
    Id.
    43
    Henderson also emphasized that the “factors that both
    judges and juries will consider are not etched in stone.”182
    Rather, “the scientific research underlying them will continue
    to evolve, as it has in the more than thirty years since
    Manson.”183 Accordingly, the court clarified that its decision
    does not “limit trial courts from reviewing evolving,
    substantial, and generally accepted scientific research.”184
    Finally, the New Jersey Supreme Court suggested that,
    where appropriate, trial courts consider giving instructions
    during the trial before eyewitness identification testimony is
    elicited. Such instructions would help inform juries, up front,
    of the problems that can arise from seemingly unequivocal
    courtroom identifications.185
    After Henderson, in July 2012,186 the New Jersey
    Supreme Court released its expanded set of jury instructions
    governing evaluation of identifications. These instructions
    explain that scientific research has shown eyewitness
    identifications can be unreliable, and they emphasize that
    eyewitness evidence “must be scrutinized carefully.”187 To this
    end, the instructions identify a specific set of factors that jurors
    should consider when deciding whether eyewitness
    identification evidence is reliable, including estimator and
    system variables.188 These instructions are consistent with the
    Supreme Court’s analysis in Perry and will better equip jurors
    to evaluate the reliability of eyewitness identifications.189
    182
    Id.
    183
    Id.
    184
    Id. at 922.
    185
    Id. at 924.
    186
    These instructions were released a year after the opinion in
    Henderson.
    187
    Supreme Court of New Jersey, New Jersey Criminal
    Model Jury Instructions, Identification: In-Court
    Identifications Only 2 (2012),
    http://www.judiciary.state.nj.us/pressrel/2012/jury_instructio
    n.pdf.
    188
    Id. at 3-9.
    189
    New Jersey is not alone in its response to the vast body of
    research on the reliability of eyewitness identifications. In
    2011, the Justices of the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial
    44
    The Supreme Court of Oregon has likewise reformed
    the state judicial system’s approach to eyewitness
    identifications. However, Oregon has taken a slightly different
    approach. In State v. Lawson,190 the court addressed the
    reliability issue from an evidentiary standpoint as opposed to a
    due process one. Prior to Lawson, Oregon courts adhered to a
    rule under which trial courts could not consider whether an
    identification was unreliable until some evidence of
    suggestiveness was first introduced.191 In rejecting that
    approach, the Oregon Supreme Court explained:
    Such a requirement [] conflates evidentiary
    principles with due process concerns. A
    constitutional due process analysis might
    properly consider suggestiveness as a separate
    prerequisite to further inquiry because the Due
    Process Clause is not implicated absent some
    Court convened a study group to “offer guidance as to how
    our courts can most effectively deter unnecessarily suggestive
    identification procedures and minimize the risk of a wrongful
    conviction.” Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court Study
    Group on Eyewitness Evidence, Report and
    Recommendations to the Justices 1 (2013) (internal quotation
    marks omitted). The report made five recommendations
    aimed at minimizing misidentifications: (1) acknowledge
    variables affecting identification accuracy; (2) develop a
    model policy and implement best practices for police
    departments; (3) expand use of pretrial hearings; (4) expand
    use of improved jury instructions; and (5) offer continuing
    education to judges and bar leaders. Id. at 2-5. Like
    Henderson, the Massachusetts report recommended that,
    when a defendant contests the reliability of an eyewitness
    identification, the trial judge should conduct a pretrial hearing
    to determine whether law enforcement used suggestive
    identification procedures to elicit that identification. Id. at
    109-16. If a suggestive procedure was used, the report
    recommended that courts assess whether those procedures
    impacted the reliability of the identification. Id. at 111. The
    report suggested that courts consider both estimator and
    system variables in pre-trial hearings. Id.
    190
    
    291 P.3d 673
     (Or. 2012).
    191
    See 
    id. at 688
    ; State v. Classen, 
    590 P.2d 1198
     (Or. 1979).
    45
    form of state action, such as the state’s use of a
    suggestive identification procedure. As a matter
    of state evidence law, however, there is no reason
    to hinder the analysis of eyewitness reliability
    with      purposeless     distinctions    between
    suggestiveness and other sources of unreliability.
    . . . A trial court tasked with determining a
    constitutional claim must necessarily assume
    that the evidence is otherwise admissible; were it
    inadmissible on evidentiary grounds, the court
    would never reach the constitutional question.
    However, a trial court tasked with considering a
    question of evidentiary admissibility clearly
    cannot begin by assuming admissibility.192
    Lawson then fashioned a new approach to examining
    eyewitness identifications from existing rules of evidence.
    Under this revised test, “when a criminal defendant files a
    pretrial motion to exclude eyewitness identification evidence,
    the state as the proponent of the eyewitness identification must
    establish all preliminary facts necessary to establish
    admissibility of the eyewitness evidence.”193 If the challenged
    eyewitness evidence implicates the Oregon equivalents of
    Federal Rules of Evidence 602194 and 701,195 the state must
    192
    Lawson, 352 P.3d at 688-89 (citing Perry v. New
    Hampshire, 
    132 S. Ct. 716
    , 730 (2012) (“[T]he Due Process
    Clause does not require a preliminary judicial inquiry into
    reliability of an eyewitness identification when the
    identification was not procured under unnecessary suggestive
    circumstances arranged by law enforcement.”)).
    193
    Id. at 696-97 (emphasis added).
    194
    Fed. R. Evid. 602 (“A witness may testify to a matter only
    if evidence is introduced sufficient to support a finding that
    the witness has personal knowledge of the matter. Evidence
    to prove personal knowledge may consist of the witness’s
    own testimony.”).
    195
    Fed. R. Evid. 701 (“If a witness is not testifying as an
    expert, testimony in the form of an opinion is limited to one
    that is: (a) rationally based on the witness’s perception; (b)
    helpful to clearly understanding the witness’s testimony or to
    determining a fact in issue; and (c) not based on scientific,
    46
    prove that the eyewitness has personal knowledge of the matter
    on which she will testify, and her identification “is both
    rationally based on [her] first-hand perceptions and helpful to
    the trier of fact.”196 This flips the burdens in due process cases
    such as Manson and Henderson. Rather than the defendant
    proving that the identification at issue is unreliable, the state
    must first prove that the identification meets the evidentiary
    requirements of Rules 602 and 701.
    If the state successfully shows that the identification
    evidence is admissible, the burden then shifts to the defendant
    to establish that “the probative value of the evidence is
    substantially outweighed by the danger of unfair prejudice,
    confusion of the issues, misleading the jury, or by
    considerations of undue delay or needless presentation of
    cumulative evidence.” 197 Thus, Oregon courts now rely on the
    state equivalent of Federal Rule of Evidence 403198 to exclude
    unreliable eyewitness identifications that are otherwise
    admissible. If a trial court concludes that the defendant has
    made such a showing, “the trial court can either exclude the
    identification, or fashion an appropriate intermediate remedy
    short of exclusion to cure the unfair prejudice or other dangers
    attending the use of that evidence.”199
    State courts are not alone in their responses to the
    scientific research. Federal circuit courts of appeals have also
    acknowledged the unreliability of certain eyewitness
    technical, or other specialized knowledge within the scope of
    Rule 702.”).
    196
    Lawson, 291 P.3d at 697.
    197
    Id.
    198
    Fed. R. Evid. 403 (“The court may exclude relevant
    evidence if its probative value is substantially outweighed by
    a danger of one or more of the following: unfair prejudice,
    confusing the issues, misleading the jury, undue delay,
    wasting time, or needlessly presenting cumulative
    evidence.”).
    199
    Lawson, 291 P.3d at 697.
    47
    testimony.200 In United States v. Brownlee,201 we recognized
    the importance of expert testimony in safeguarding against
    unreliable eyewitness identifications. There, we held that a
    district court properly admitted expert testimony concerning
    the effects of race, hair covering, weapons focus, and exposure
    on the identification accuracy of multiple witnesses.202 We
    further held that the district court improperly excluded expert
    testimony comparing the show-up procedure used in that case
    (a procedure where law enforcement presents a single
    individual arguably fitting a witness’ description to that
    witness for identification) and other identification procedures
    and analyzing the suggestiveness of the show-up and its
    potential effect on the identifications. We also held that the
    district court improperly excluded expert testimony on
    confidence malleability, post-event suggestiveness, and
    confidence of accuracy.203 In doing so, we joined the growing
    chorus in acknowledging that
    The recent availability of post-conviction DNA
    tests demonstrate that there have been an
    overwhelming number of false convictions
    stemming from uninformed reliance on
    eyewitness misidentifications. . . . In fact,
    mistaken eyewitness identifications are
    responsible for more wrongful convictions than
    all other causes combined. Eyewitness evidence
    presented from well-meaning and confident
    citizens is highly persuasive but, at the same
    time, is among the least reliable forms of
    evidence.204
    We then explained that expert testimony can play a crucial role
    in counteracting the falsely persuasive effect of unreliable
    200
    See, e.g., United States v. Bartlett, 
    567 F.3d 901
    , 906 (7th
    Cir. 2009), cert. denied, 
    558 U.S. 1147
     (2010); United States
    v. Brownlee, 
    454 F.3d 131
    , 141-44 (3d Cir. 2006).
    201
    
    454 F.3d 131
     (2006).
    202
    
    Id. at 137
    .
    203
    
    Id. at 141
    .
    204
    
    Id. at 141-42
     (internal quotation marks, citations, and
    alterations omitted).
    48
    eyewitness testimony.205 As the National Research Council has
    recognized, expert testimony on eyewitness identifications
    may hold certain advantages over jury instructions as a method
    to explain the relevant science to juries.206 Expert witnesses:
    (1) “can explain scientific research in a more flexible manner,
    by presenting only the relevant research to the jury”; (2) are
    more “familiar with the research and can describe it in detail”;
    (3) “can convey the state of the research at the time of the trial”;
    (4) “can be cross-examined by the other side”; and (5) “can
    more clearly describe the limitations of the research.”207
    Therefore, expert testimony on eyewitness accuracy is a crucial
    tool for educating juries on the science surrounding
    identifications.
    It is against this backdrop that we must assess the jurors’
    acceptance of the three eyewitness identifications of Dennis
    and the adequacy of the charge that guided their deliberations.
    V. The Jury Charge
    In Watkins v. Sowders, Justice Brennan wrote: “Surely
    jury instructions can ordinarily no more cure the erroneous
    admission of powerful identification evidence than they can
    cure the erroneous admission of a confession.”208 Although
    Justice Brennan was referring to the admissibility of certain
    eyewitness identifications rather than their reliability, his
    caution underscores the limited utility of a bare bones jury
    instruction that does not properly inform jurors about the many
    factors that can undermine courtroom identifications. This is
    particularly so given the powerful countervailing effect of
    jurors’ predisposition to believe eyewitness testimony.
    Studies have documented that jurors tend to
    misunderstand how memory works and often believe it to be
    much more reliable and less susceptible to outside influence
    205
    See 
    id. at 144
    .
    206
    National Research Council, Identifying the Culprit, supra,
    at 40.
    207
    Id.
    208
    
    449 U.S. 341
    , 350 (1981) (Brennan, J. dissenting)
    (emphasis added).
    49
    than it actually is.209 One survey of 1,000 potential jurors in
    Washington, D.C. found that almost two-thirds of the
    respondents thought the statement “I never forget a face”
    applied “very well” or “fairly well” to them.210 Another thirty-
    seven percent thought the presence of a weapon would enhance
    the witness’ reliability, while thirty-three percent either
    believed that the weapon would have no effect or were unsure
    what effect the weapon would have.211 Finally, thirty-nine
    percent of respondents believed that when an event is violent,
    it makes a witness’ memory for details more reliable, while
    thirty-three percent responded either that this would have no
    effect or that they were unsure of the effect violence during the
    commission of the crime would have.212 The studies I have
    discussed show how wrong these beliefs are. There is no reason
    to believe the jurors who convicted Dennis were any more
    enlightened about memory formation and recall than the
    respondents in these studies.
    Yet, the jurors who convicted James Dennis were only
    provided with a “plain vanilla” instruction. They had no
    knowledge of the potential distortion that can be caused by the
    factors discussed here. The trial court’s entire jury instruction
    regarding how the jurors should evaluate the eyewitness
    identifications was as follows:
    There have been several Commonwealth
    identification witnesses. . . . However, a mistake
    can be made in identifying a person even by a
    witness attempting to be truthful.
    Where the opportunity for positive
    identification is good and the witness is positive
    in his or her identification and his or her
    identification is not weakened by prior failure to
    identify but remains, even after cross-
    examination, positive and unqualified, the
    209
    Epstein, supra, 46-48; Elizabeth F. Loftus, Timothy P.
    O’Toole, & Catharine F. Easterly, Juror Understanding of
    Eyewitness Testimony: A Survey of 1000 Potential Jurors in
    the District of Columbia l (2004).
    210
    Loftus, O’Toole, & Easterly, supra, at 6.
    211
    Id. at 8.
    212
    Id. at 9.
    50
    testimony as to identification need not be
    received with caution and can be treated as a
    statement of fact.
    On the other hand, where a witness is not
    in a position to clearly observe the assailant or is
    not positive, as to identify, or his or her positive
    statements as to identity are weakened by
    qualification or by inconsistencies or by failure
    to identify the defendant on one or more prior
    occasions, then the testimony as to identification
    must be received with caution. You have heard
    the testimony in this case to the effect, and I
    leave it to your judgment and for your
    determination, but my recollection is that there
    were some prior identifications that were less
    than unqualified or positive. I think that’s been
    gone over at length by counsel. Under those
    circumstances, you should receive the testimony
    with caution. But it’s for you to determine
    whether or not this is so, you decide whether the
    testimony was weakened and what the evidence
    was.
    If, according to these rules, you decide
    that caution is required in determining whether
    or not to accept the testimony of the identifying
    witnesses, then you must take into consideration
    the following matters: A, whether the testimony
    of the identification witness is generally
    believable; B, whether his or her opportunity to
    observe was sufficient to allow him or her to
    make an accurate identification; C, how the
    identification was arrived at; D, all of the
    circumstances indicating whether or not the
    identification was accurate; and E, whether the
    identification testimony is supported by other
    evidence. And you must conclude that it is so
    supported before you can accept it as being
    accurate.
    My advice to you is this. In this case, my
    recollection, that’s why I’m not being so
    emphatic, my recollection is that one of the
    witnesses said, “I think[,]”[] another witness, for
    example, said, at a certain time, “I can’t be sure.”
    51
    Witnesses who testified that way, their testimony
    as to identification should be received with
    caution and you should follow the rules that I’ve
    given you.213
    Absent from this instruction is any explanation of the
    relevant system or estimator variables that so crucially impact
    the reliability of witness identifications. The caution the trial
    court urged is of precious little help given that omission. Jurors
    need to be informed of the applicable variables before they will
    be in a position to exercise the caution that this instruction
    urged. Without those detailed instructions, jurors simply are in
    no position to fully appreciate that “[t]he witness’ recollection
    of [a] stranger can be distorted easily by the circumstances or
    by later actions of the police.”
    Moreover, as should be evident from my discussion, the
    italicized text instructing the jurors that they need not be
    cautious about accepting the identification of a witness who
    appears certain of her identification and had a good opportunity
    to observe the crime is extraordinarily dangerous. Contrary to
    the court’s instruction, that testimony cannot be accepted as
    fact. Social science aside, one need only consider the professed
    certainty of the accusers of Ronald Cotton and John White to
    understand just how problematic such a charge is. We again
    face a familiar and problematic reality: How ill-equipped these
    jurors were to assess the accuracy of the three eyewitnesses
    who pointed to Dennis and said “that’s the one.”
    VI. Conclusion: Un-Ringing the Bell
    In 1977, Justice Marshall emphasized that “‘the
    vagaries of eyewitness identification are well-known; the
    annals of criminal law are rife with instances of mistaken
    identification.’”214 They are known far better today. As Justice
    Marshall continued: “It is, of course, impossible to control one
    source of such errors[—]the faulty perceptions and unreliable
    memories of witnesses[—]except through vigorously
    213
    J.A. 1237-39.
    214
    Manson v. Braithwaite, 
    432 U.S. 98
    , 119 (1977)
    (Marshall, J., dissenting) (internal alteration omitted) (quoting
    United States v. Wade, 
    388 U.S. 218
    , 228 (1967)).
    52
    contested trials conducted by diligent counsel and judges.”215
    Given the quantity and quality of research that has been
    conducted since Justice Marshall wrote those words, we judges
    must do a better job of educating ourselves and jurors about the
    dynamics of eyewitness identifications. Although no system so
    dependent on the limits of human abilities will ever be able to
    totally eliminate the problems endemic in eyewitness
    testimony, the integrity of the criminal justice system demands
    that we do better.
    “[J]urors seldom enter a courtroom with the knowledge
    that eyewitness identifications are unreliable. Thus, while
    science has firmly established the inherent unreliability of
    human perception and memory, this reality is outside the jury’s
    common knowledge and often contradicts jurors’
    ‘commonsense’ understandings.”216 Therefore, thorough and
    appropriately focused jury instructions that reflect the
    scientific findings are critical to allowing jurors to discharge
    their solemn obligation to assess evidence.217 Such instructions
    will also encourage police to use more neutral procedures in
    investigating crimes. If law enforcement officials know that
    juries will be informed about best practices for obtaining
    identifications, police will have a very strong incentive to
    215
    
    Id.
    216
    United States v. Brownlee, 
    454 F.3d 131
    , 142 (3d Cir.
    2006) (internal quotation marks and citations omitted).
    217
    It is important to note that jury instructions are only one of
    several promising remedies. As we mentioned in our
    discussion of Brownlee, expert testimony regarding the
    reliability of eyewitness identifications can also help jurors
    accurately assess the reliability of such identifications. The
    National Research Council has also recommended that, where
    appropriate, trial judges make basic inquiries into eyewitness
    identification evidence. National Research Council,
    Identifying the Culprit, supra, at 109-10. As the National
    Research Council suggested, “while the contours of such an
    inquiry would need to be established on a case-by-case basis,
    at a minimum, the judge could inquire about prior lineups,
    what information had been given to the eyewitness before the
    lineup, what instructions had been given to the eyewitness in
    connection with administering the lineup, and whether the
    lineup had been administered ‘blindly.’” Id. at 110.
    53
    adopt protocols consistent with those best practices. As the
    National Research Council has explained, such instructions
    therefore “create an incentive for agencies to adopt written
    eyewitness identification procedures and to document the
    identifications themselves.”218
    It is difficult to un-ring the bell that an unreliable
    eyewitness identification tolls. Therefore, in the first instance,
    it is law enforcement—not the courts—that can best ensure
    against an undue risk of convicting the innocent. However,
    robust jury instructions can minimize the dangers associated
    with inaccurate eyewitness identifications. In this case, had the
    jury been appropriately informed of the problems associated
    with the procedures used to solicit the identifications, as well
    as the numerous estimator variables that could have affected
    them, the jurors may well have concluded that James Dennis
    was not the one who shot Chedell Williams.
    218
    Id. at 110.
    54
    APPENDIX: Eyewitness Identifications
    Table 1—Photo Array Identifications
    Name                    Reaction to Array                            J.A. Cite
    Zahra        Howard, Selects Dennis: “This looks like the guy, but I 1537
    Second victim        can’t be sure.”
    Thomas        Bertha, Selects Dennis: “This one, #1. . . . That looks 1555
    Construction worker   like the one that was running with the gun.”
    Anthony Overstreet, Selects Dennis: “[I]n the first set of photos, #1 1565
    Construction worker looks like the man who shot the girl.”
    James     Cameron, Selects Dennis: “#1 looks familiar but I can’t 1548
    SEPTA employee     [be] sure.”
    David LeRoy,            Could not identify anyone from arrays.       1510
    Hot dog vendor
    George         Ritchie, Ritchie says he could not make an 1384-85
    Repairing car nearby    identification when shown the photos. The
    Commonwealth maintains the police never
    showed Ritchie an array.
    Clarence     Verdell,   Could not identify anyone from arrays: “I 1580
    Pedestrian    (passed   originally had said the possibilities on this
    Williams and Howard     spread were 1, 5, and 8. I say now that it
    on the stairs at the    wasn’t #5, it would be either #1 or #8 who was
    station)                the [shooter]. I lean more towards #1 because
    of the build of the male but he definitely
    doesn’t have that cut of hair now. I definitely
    do not remember him having his hair cut that
    way. He was behind Chedell’s girlfriend
    when I saw them.”
    Joseph DiRienzo Jr., Could not identify anyone from arrays.          1650
    Son of fruit stand
    vendor
    Joseph DiRienzo,        Could not identify anyone from arrays.       1653
    Fruit stand vendor
    55
    Table 2—Lineup Identifications
    Name                  Lineup Identification                  J.A. Cite
    Zahra       Howard, Positively identifies Dennis: “I think it 228-29
    Second victim       was – I think it was three.”
    Thomas       Bertha, Identifies Dennis.                      228
    Construction worker
    Anthony Overstreet, Identifies a different person in the 228
    Construction worker lineup.
    James   Cameron, Identifies Dennis.                          228
    SEPTA employee
    56
    JORDAN, Circuit Judge, concurring in part and concurring in
    the judgment:
    To say this case is troubling is a serious
    understatement. James Dennis was convicted of murder and
    sentenced to death based almost entirely upon the testimony
    of three problematic eyewitnesses and despite a dearth of
    physical evidence. On direct appeal, the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court affirmed his conviction and death sentence in
    an opinion that is no credit to that court’s usual standards.
    See Dennis I, 
    715 A.2d 404
     (Pa. 1998). It rejected in a mere
    three sentences Dennis’s Brady claim with respect to the
    Cason receipt, a piece of evidence thoroughly described in
    today’s Majority opinion. Here is the entirety of the state
    court’s analysis:
    Finally, it is clear that there clearly was no
    Brady violation. The DPW receipt was not
    exculpatory, because it had no bearing on
    Appellant’s alibi, and there is no evidence that
    the Commonwealth withheld the receipt from
    the defense. Accordingly, Appellant’s claims of
    ineffectiveness regarding Cason and the DPW
    receipt have no arguable merit.
    
    Id. at 408
    .
    Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of that drive-by
    discussion is the assertion that the Cason receipt was not
    exculpatory because “it had no bearing on [Dennis]’s alibi.”
    
    Id.
     In reality, the pertinence and importance of the receipt
    could not be more glaring. It shows exactly what time
    1
    witness Latanya Cason received her public assistance check,
    thus shifting the timeline of events that she laid out during her
    trial testimony so that, instead of contradicting Dennis’s
    testimony, she almost perfectly corroborated his alibi. The
    previously-undisclosed receipt thus transforms Cason from a
    damning prosecution witness into a powerful witness for the
    defense.
    Every judge of our en banc Court has now concluded
    that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s contrary
    determination was not only wrong, but so obviously wrong
    that it cannot pass muster even under AEDPA’s highly-
    deferential standard of review. In other words, it is the
    unanimous view of this Court that any fairminded jurist must
    disagree with the Dennis I court’s assessment of the
    materiality and favorability of the Cason receipt. Yet
    somehow a majority of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    endorsed Dennis’s conviction and death sentence. The lack
    of analytical rigor and attention to detail in that decision on
    direct appeal is all the more painful to contemplate because
    the proof against Dennis is far from overwhelming. He may
    be innocent.
    But the strength of the case against James Dennis need
    not be the focus of our attention. This case can and should be
    resolved on a single point: the Brady claim concerning the
    Cason receipt. That is one reason why I cannot join the more
    expansive opinion of my colleagues in the Majority. Their
    correct conclusion that the error in Dennis I regarding the
    Cason receipt is by itself enough to warrant habeas relief
    means that we have no call to address the Brady claims with
    respect to the Howard police activity report and the Frazier
    documents. And, in fact, I disagree with the Majority’s
    2
    analysis of those latter two claims and fully agree with my
    dissenting colleagues’ rejection of them, which is another
    reason I cannot join the Majority opinion.
    Moreover, I also agree with the Dissent’s position,1 set
    forth in its discussion of the Cason receipt, that imposing a
    “reasonable diligence” requirement upon defense counsel
    does not violate a clearly established holding of the Supreme
    Court. The “reasonable diligence” requirement is, in effect, a
    rule that a Brady claim will not lie when the evidence in
    question was available to the defense by the exercise of
    reasonable diligence. E.g., Brown v. Cain, 
    104 F.3d 744
    , 750
    (5th Cir. 1997). We are obligated by AEDPA to uphold a
    state court’s decision unless it is “contrary to, or involved an
    unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law,
    as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States.”
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). Under AEDPA, whether any of us
    thinks that imposing a reasonable diligence requirement is a
    good idea or the best interpretation of Brady is irrelevant.
    What matters is that one can reasonably perceive such a
    requirement being allowed by Supreme Court jurisprudence.2
    1
    All references to the “Dissent” refer to Judge Fisher’s
    dissenting opinion, unless the reference is explicitly made to
    Judge Hardiman’s dissent.
    2
    Although the Majority is correct that the “Supreme
    Court has never recognized an affirmative due diligence duty
    of defense counsel as part of Brady” (Majority Op. at 50),
    there is no Supreme Court opinion that forecloses the
    adoption of that duty. The Supreme Court has emphasized
    that the Brady rule requires disclosure of evidence that is
    “unknown to the defense,” United States v. Agurs, 
    427 U.S.
                            3
    97, 103 (1976), and that the rule is rooted in “the defendant’s
    right to a fair trial,” 
    id. at 108
    . Based on that language,
    several courts of appeals have concluded that information is
    not unknown to the defense for Brady purposes if it can be
    obtained by the exercise of reasonable diligence, and that
    requiring diligence on the part of defense counsel does not
    implicate the right to a fair trial. See, e.g., Lugo v. Munoz,
    
    682 F.2d 7
    , 10 (1st Cir. 1982) (“Since the information at issue
    here was available to the defense attorney through diligent
    discovery, we find that the prosecutor’s omission was not of
    sufficient significance to result in the denial of the
    defendant’s right to a fair trial” (internal quotation marks
    omitted).); United States v. Brown, 
    628 F.2d 471
    , 473 (5th
    Cir. Unit A 1980) (“Truth, justice, and the American way do
    not … require the Government to discover and develop the
    defendant’s entire defense.”); United States v. Hedgeman,
    
    564 F.2d 763
    , 769 (7th Cir. 1977) (establishing a diligence
    requirement and noting that “the prosecutor will not have
    violated his constitutional duty of disclosure unless his
    omission is of sufficient significance to result in the denial of
    the defendant’s right to a fair trial”). The Dissent has also
    collected cases to that effect. (See J. Fisher Dissent Op. at 13-
    14 n.1.) In any event, on AEDPA review it is sufficient for
    our purposes that there is no Supreme Court decision clearly
    holding that there is not a reasonable diligence requirement.
    See Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 103 (2011) (noting
    that a state-court error on habeas review must be one that is
    “well understood and comprehended in existing law beyond
    any possibility for fairminded disagreement”).
    4
    We ourselves have applied it repeatedly,3 so we can hardly
    say that it constitutes an unreasonable application of federal
    law.
    Of course, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court never said
    anything at all in its Dennis I decision about defense
    counsel’s lack of diligence in locating the Cason receipt. But,
    under Harrington v. Richter, habeas review requires that we
    engage in so-called “gap-filling,” and apply AEDPA
    deference to whatever reasonable “arguments or theories …
    could have supported[] the state court’s decision,” if that
    decision does not provide reasoning for its conclusions.4 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 102 (2011). Thus, despite the fact that the
    3
    See Grant v. Lockett, 
    709 F.3d 224
    , 231 (3d Cir.
    2013) (“It is therefore clear that trial counsel could have
    discovered [the otherwise-suppressed evidence] had he
    exercised reasonable diligence.”); United States v. Pelullo,
    
    399 F.3d 197
    , 213 (3d Cir. 2005) (“[T]he burden is on the
    defendant to exercise reasonable diligence.”); United States v.
    Starusko, 
    729 F.2d 256
    , 262 (3d Cir. 1984) (“[T]he
    government is not obliged under Brady to furnish a defendant
    with information which he already has or, with any
    reasonable diligence, he can obtain himself” (internal
    quotation marks omitted).).
    4
    More specifically, Richter says: “Under § 2254(d), a
    habeas court must determine what arguments or theories
    supported or, as here, could have supported, the state court’s
    decision; and then it must ask whether it is possible
    fairminded jurists could disagree that those arguments or
    theories are inconsistent with the holding in a prior decision
    of th[e Supreme] Court.” 562 U.S. at 102.
    5
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court never itself discussed diligence,
    Richter might prompt us to apply a reasonable diligence
    requirement and reject Dennis’s Cason receipt Brady claim –
    exactly as the Dissent has suggested – if there were a gap in
    the state-court decision for us to fill. The problem I have with
    the Dissent is that I see no gap in the state court’s reasoning,
    at least not in the sense contemplated in Richter. My
    dissenting colleagues are not filling a gap here; they are re-
    writing the opinion of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court,
    adding and then elaborating a theory that was never litigated
    in state court.
    The reality of what happened in Dennis I is more
    straightforward. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court simply
    erred. Its opinion stated both that “the police came into
    possession of” the Cason receipt and that “there [was] no
    evidence that the Commonwealth withheld the receipt from
    the defense.” Dennis I, 715 A.2d at 408. There was,
    however, no recognition that those statements are
    fundamentally at odds. Under the Supreme Court’s opinion
    in Kyles v. Whitley, any evidence in the possession of the
    police is, for Brady purposes, also in the possession of the
    prosecution. 
    514 U.S. 419
    , 437 (1995). If a piece of
    favorable, material evidence is in the possession of the police
    but is not turned over to the defense, it is necessarily withheld
    by the prosecution in violation of Brady. See 
    id.
     (prosecutors
    are responsible for “any favorable evidence known to the
    others acting on the government’s behalf in the case,
    including the police”).
    By entirely failing to apply Kyles, the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court acted “contrary to … clearly established
    Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court of the
    6
    United States.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1).5 In light of the state
    court’s error, I would review Dennis’s Brady claim with
    respect to the Cason receipt “unencumbered by the deference
    AEDPA normally requires,” Panetti v. Quarterman, 
    551 U.S. 930
    , 948 (2007), to determine whether Dennis is “in custody
    in violation of the Constitution or laws … of the United
    States.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (a).6 On that de novo review, I
    5
    At the same time, the court went so far astray in
    applying Brady that its decision also “involved an
    unreasonable application of … clearly established Federal law
    … .” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1).
    6
    It is important to understand the interplay between
    §§ 2254(a) and 2254(d). “Section 2254(a) permits a federal
    court to entertain only those applications alleging that a
    person is in state custody ‘in violation of the Constitution or
    laws or treaties of the United States.’” Cullen v. Pinholster,
    
    563 U.S. 170
    , 181 (2011). Section 2254(d) imposes an
    “additional restriction” on habeas relief in cases where a
    claim “has been adjudicated on the merits in State court
    proceedings.” 
    Id.
     (internal quotation marks omitted). In
    those circumstances, habeas relief is barred unless the state
    court’s decision is “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
    application of, clearly established Federal law.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). Section 2254(d) thus sets forth a necessary, but
    not sufficient, prerequisite to habeas relief only for those
    claims adjudicated on the merits in state court. If that high
    bar is cleared – i.e., the state court’s decision is so
    unreasonable or contrary to federal law as established by the
    Supreme Court – we are still restricted to granting habeas
    relief only if the petitioner has shown he is in custody in
    violation of federal law under § 2254(a). In that second
    7
    would hold that the evidence in question meets all three
    requirements of Brady – the Cason receipt is material and
    favorable, and it was suppressed by the Commonwealth – for
    the reasons set out in Part III.A of the Majority opinion. I
    therefore concur in the judgment. I also agree with Part II of
    the Majority opinion and write separately to explain my view
    of the limits of Richter gap-filling and the proper scope of
    AEDPA deference.
    Recall that in Dennis I, the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court said, “there is no evidence that the Commonwealth
    withheld the [Cason] receipt from the defense.” 715 A.2d at
    408. My dissenting colleagues believe “it is not clear what
    the court meant by [that].” (J. Fisher Dissent Op. at 8.) They
    then proceed to fill the “gap” they think is created by the
    ambiguity they perceive, saying, “the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court could have meant that the receipt was not withheld
    because it was available to the defense with reasonable
    diligence.” (J. Fisher Dissent Op. at 11.)
    The precedent that establishes a gap-filling
    requirement, Richter, dealt with a state court decision that
    was unsupported by any reasoning. 562 U.S. at 96-97. The
    state court issued a summary order, with no written opinion,
    denying a prisoner’s ineffective assistance of counsel claim.
    analysis, we review the petitioner’s claim de novo, without
    deference to the state court’s legal conclusions. Panetti, 
    551 U.S. at 953
     (“When a state court’s adjudication of a claim is
    dependent on an antecedent unreasonable application of
    federal law, the requirement set forth in § 2254(d)(1) is
    satisfied. A federal court must then resolve the claim without
    the deference AEDPA otherwise requires.”).
    8
    Id. The gap in the state court’s reasoning was obvious – there
    was no reasoning at all. The Supreme Court held that, even
    in those circumstances, “[w]here a state court’s decision is
    unaccompanied by an explanation, the habeas petitioner’s
    burden still must be met by showing there was no reasonable
    basis for the state court to deny relief.” Id. at 98. Thus
    federal courts must fill gaps in a state court’s reasoning so
    that there is something against which to measure a
    petitioner’s efforts. In short, “a habeas court must determine
    what arguments or theories … could have supported[] the
    state court’s decision” and afford AEDPA deference to those
    theories. Id. at 102.
    Premo v. Moore extended Richter’s gap-filling
    directive a bit beyond cases devoid of all reasoning. 
    562 U.S. 115
     (2011). There, a prisoner claimed ineffective assistance
    of counsel because his attorney had failed to file a motion to
    suppress a confession. 
    Id. at 119
    . In concluding that such a
    motion “would have been fruitless,” 
    id.,
     the state court’s
    opinion expressly referenced trial counsel’s explanation that
    “suppression would serve little purpose” because the
    defendant had made full and admissible confessions to others.
    
    Id. at 123
    . The state court did not, however, specify which of
    the two prongs of the ineffective assistance of counsel
    standard from Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984)
    – deficient performance or prejudice – formed the basis of its
    rejection of the claim. Premo, 
    562 U.S. at 123
    . The Supreme
    Court therefore held that the Court of Appeals for the Ninth
    Circuit had to fill that gap by assuming “that both findings
    would have involved an unreasonable application of clearly
    established federal law.” 
    Id.
     Critical to the ultimate denial of
    habeas relief, the Supreme Court believed that the state
    court’s justification for rejecting the petitioner’s claim was
    9
    sufficient to address either prong of Strickland.7
    Accordingly, the Supreme Court’s decision was not an
    exercise in speculation but was rooted in the state court’s
    actual reasoning. Premo did not require consideration of an
    entirely new argument that had not already been identified
    and accepted by the state court. See 
    id. at 124
     (“[T]he [state
    court’s] first and independent explanation – that suppression
    would have been futile – confirms that [counsel’s]
    representation was adequate under Strickland.”). The “gap”
    that the Court filled was thus quite narrow.
    The very next year, the Supreme Court put a limit on
    gap-filling. In Lafler v. Cooper, it upheld a grant of habeas
    corpus. 
    132 S. Ct. 1376
     (2012). The petitioner, Anthony
    Cooper, had shot at a woman’s head but missed, instead
    hitting her in the buttock, hip, and abdomen. 
    Id. at 1383
    . The
    prosecution offered Cooper two plea deals, and Cooper
    expressed interest. 
    Id.
     He ended up rejecting the offers,
    though, because (he later alleged) his attorney convinced him
    7
    See Premo, 
    562 U.S. at 126-27
     (on performance: “It
    is not clear how the successful exclusion of the confession
    would have affected counsel’s strategic calculus. The
    prosecution had at its disposal two witnesses able to relate
    another confession. … Moore’s counsel made a reasonable
    choice to opt for a quick plea bargain.”); 
    id. at 129
     (on
    prejudice: “The state court here reasonably could have
    determined that Moore would have accepted the plea
    agreement even if his second confession had been ruled
    inadmissible. By the time the plea agreement cut short
    investigation of Moore’s crimes, the State’s case was already
    formidable and included two witnesses to an admissible
    confession.”).
    10
    that the prosecution would be unable to establish intent to
    murder because he shot his victim below the waist. 
    Id.
     After
    he was convicted on all charges, Cooper claimed ineffective
    assistance of counsel. 
    Id.
     The Michigan Court of Appeals
    rejected his claim, analyzing it as follows:
    [T]he record shows that defendant knowingly
    and intelligently rejected two plea offers and
    chose to go to trial. The record fails to support
    defendant’s contentions that defense counsel’s
    representation was ineffective because he
    rejected a defense based on [a] claim of self-
    defense and because he did not obtain a more
    favorable plea bargain for defendant.
    People v. Cooper, No. 250583, 
    2005 WL 599740
    , at *1
    (Mich. Ct. App. Mar. 15, 2005) (per curiam) (internal
    citations omitted). After the district court granted Cooper’s
    petition for habeas relief, the Sixth Circuit affirmed,
    emphasizing the problem in the state court’s decision with
    this comment: “it is not clear from the [state] court’s
    abbreviated discussion (only two sentences of the opinion is
    even arguably responsive to petitioner’s claim) what the court
    decided, or even whether the correct legal rule was
    identified.” Cooper v. Lafler, 376 F. App’x 563, 568-69 (6th
    Cir. 2010), vacated by 
    132 S. Ct. 1376
     (2012).
    While it ultimately affirmed the habeas decision, the
    Supreme Court concluded that the state court’s two-sentence
    analysis “may not be quite so opaque as the Court of Appeals
    for the Sixth Circuit thought … .” Lafler, 
    132 S. Ct. at 1390
    .
    The state court had identified Cooper’s ineffective-assistance-
    of-counsel claim, but had failed to apply the proper Strickland
    11
    standard to assess it. Instead, the state court had “simply
    found that respondent’s rejection of the plea was knowing and
    voluntary.” 
    Id.
     Although the Michigan court recited the
    Strickland standard, the Supreme Court concluded that the
    state court had mistakenly relied upon an entirely different
    standard (i.e., the “knowing and voluntary” standard), which
    was contrary to Strickland. By relying upon the wrong
    standard altogether, “the state court’s adjudication was
    contrary to clearly established federal law.” 
    Id.
     As a
    consequence, the Supreme Court declined to apply AEDPA
    deference to the state court decision and, instead, engaged in
    de novo review of Cooper’s Strickland claim, concluding that
    his counsel’s deficient performance and the prejudice
    therefrom required relief. 
    Id. at 1390-91
    . The Supreme
    Court’s analysis in Lafler suggests that we should be hesitant
    to deem a state court opinion to be so lacking in analysis that
    it is comparable to an “order … unaccompanied by an
    opinion explaining [its] reasons.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 98
    . In
    other words, we ought not engage in error correction under
    the guise of gap-filling.
    That holds true here. In Dennis I, the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court correctly identified Brady and its requirement
    that, for relief to be warranted, the evidence in question must
    be both exculpatory and withheld. Nevertheless, the court
    applied a standard contrary to Brady and its progeny when it
    concluded that the prosecution did not withhold evidence that
    the police had in their possession. Cf. Sears v. Upton, 
    561 U.S. 945
    , 952 (2010) (per curiam) (“Although the court
    appears to have stated the proper … standard, it did not
    correctly conceptualize how that standard applies to the
    circumstances of this case.”). Kyles is very clear in
    explaining that, for purposes of a Brady analysis, the
    12
    prosecution functionally possesses all favorable evidence in
    the possession of the police. See 
    514 U.S. at 437
     (“[T]he
    individual prosecutor has a duty to learn of any favorable
    evidence known to the others acting on the government’s
    behalf in the case, including the police.”). Just as the
    Michigan state court in Lafler failed to apply Strickland to
    assess an ineffective assistance claim, so too the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court failed to apply Kyles to assess Dennis’s Brady
    claim with respect to the Cason receipt. Rather than applying
    Kyles, the court simply found that there was no evidence that
    the prosecutor possessed the Cason receipt. Compare Lafler,
    
    132 S. Ct. at 1390
     (“Rather than applying Strickland, the state
    court simply found that respondent’s rejection of the plea was
    knowing and voluntary. An inquiry into whether the rejection
    of a plea is knowing and voluntary, however, is not the
    correct means by which to address a claim of ineffective
    assistance of counsel.”). Lafler implies a limit on the gap-
    filling called for by Richter and Premo. As was done in
    Lafler, we should take the state court’s decision as written,
    rather than construct our own “not unreasonable” theory to
    justify that court’s conclusion.
    Justice Scalia’s dissent in Lafler further supports the
    analogy between that case and this one. Indeed, his opinion
    reads much like the Dissent here. First, he pointed out that
    the Michigan state court had recited the Strickland standard.
    Lafler, 132 S. Ct. at 1396 (Scalia, J., dissenting). He next
    read the subsequent paragraph of the state court’s decision as
    an attempt to apply that standard. Id. He then concluded that
    the state court did not apply a standard “contrary to” federal
    law. Instead, by direct analogy to Premo, he argued that his
    colleagues should have assessed whether the state court
    opinion constituted an unreasonable application of clearly
    13
    established federal law, subject to Richter’s gap filling
    requirement:
    Since it is ambiguous whether the state court’s
    holding was based on a lack of prejudice or
    rather the court’s factual determination that
    there had been no deficient performance, to
    provide relief under AEDPA this Court must
    conclude that both holdings would have been
    unreasonable applications of clearly established
    law.
    Id. Justice Scalia’s effort to salvage the state court decision
    in Lafler provides some support for the Dissent’s approach
    here. But Justice Scalia was himself writing a dissent. Had
    the Supreme Court wanted us to save every problematic state
    court opinion by gap-filling and application of AEDPA
    deference, Justice Scalia’s opinion would have been the
    majority position.
    I can discern no ambiguity in the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court’s Brady analysis regarding the Cason receipt.
    The Dennis I opinion is clear about it. Very brief and very
    wrong, but clear. The analysis under the suppression prong
    of Brady can be distilled from two sentences of the opinion.
    First, the court says, “During their investigation … the police
    came into possession of” the Cason receipt.8 Dennis I, 715
    8
    The Commonwealth argues that this sentence is not
    necessarily a factual finding to which we must defer under
    § 2254(e)(1), but was instead the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court’s recapitulation of Dennis’s argument. The Majority
    rightly rejects that argument. (See Majority Op. at 46 n.17.)
    14
    The plain language of Dennis I indicates that the statement
    was a finding of fact. See Paulson v. Newton Corr. Facility,
    Warden, 
    703 F.3d 416
    , 420 (8th Cir. 2013) (interpreting, in a
    habeas case, a state-court opinion consistent with its “plain
    language”). When the Pennsylvania Supreme Court was
    referring to arguments from the parties, it said so: in the very
    next paragraph of that opinion, every sentence contains some
    version of the words “appellant argues.” No such language
    appears in the disputed sentence (or its entire surrounding
    paragraph, for that matter). Thus, it certainly appears that the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court was making a statement of
    historical fact when it said that “the police came into
    possession of” the Cason receipt. Dennis I, 715 A.2d at 408.
    Without the deference afforded to an express factual
    finding, it would be an open question whether the police
    actually possessed the Cason receipt. When Dennis first
    offered Cason’s affidavit alleging that the police took her
    receipt, he himself argued that a “remand for an evidentiary
    hearing” would be “necessary to establish the record” before
    the Brady issue could be resolved. (App. 2012; see also App.
    1891, 2021.) Likewise, the Commonwealth understood
    Cason’s affidavit to be merely a proffer of her “proposed
    testimony,” and argued that such testimony would have
    lacked the support of “competent evidence.” (App. 1923.)
    Further complicating matters, Cason’s 1997 recollection of
    her interview with the police is in conflict with the police’s
    contemporaneous record of that encounter in 1992 (which did
    not enter the court record until after Dennis I, during PCRA
    proceedings). Were we here on de novo review of that factual
    finding, we could well question whether the police did, in
    fact, have the Cason receipt. As it stands, the state court’s
    15
    A.2d at 408. It then says, “there is no evidence that the
    Commonwealth withheld the receipt from the defense.” Id.
    If one follows the instruction of Kyles, those two statements
    are impossible to harmonize. But if one ignores Kyles and
    assumes there exists some dividing line between the police
    and the prosecution, the court’s reasoning is plain. To the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court, the fact that the police had the
    receipt does not mean that the Commonwealth had the receipt,
    and thus the Commonwealth did not suppress what it did not
    have. There is no hint that “reasonable diligence” was part of
    the analysis.    The Commonwealth did not advance a
    reasonable diligence argument,9 nor did the court reference a
    diligence requirement anywhere in its opinion. In failing to
    apply Kyles, the state court’s opinion was “contrary to” and
    “involved an unreasonable application of[] clearly established
    Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court of the
    United States.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1).
    My dissenting colleagues treat the contradictory
    sentences in Dennis I like a “Magic Eye” image, staring past
    the obvious error until the illusion of a fillable gap
    materializes. They do so, I assume, because it is hard to
    accept that a court would make such a clear error of law: How
    factual findings are “presumed to be correct.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (e)(1).
    9
    In its sur-reply brief before the state court, the
    Commonwealth mentioned the potential “public availability”
    of the receipt. (App. 2026.) Under Pennsylvania law,
    however, arguments raised for the first time in reply briefs are
    generally regarded as waived. Commonwealth v. Potts, 
    566 A.2d 287
    , 296 (Pa. Super. Ct. 1989).
    16
    could the state court possibly have concluded both that the
    police possessed the receipt and that the prosecution did not
    withhold it? That conclusion makes absolutely no sense if
    one assumes the state court knew of and applied Kyles. See
    Lopez v. Schriro, 
    491 F.3d 1029
    , 1046 (9th Cir. 2007)
    (Thomas, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part) (noting
    that we start with the “presumption that state judges know
    and follow the law”). But state courts, just like us, do
    sometimes err. And when they do, we are not free to label
    significant errors as “gaps” to be corrected under Richter and
    Premo.
    Limiting our habeas review to the actual, expressed
    reasoning of a state court is itself a form of deference. The
    principles of comity and federalism underlying AEDPA’s
    highly-deferential standard compel us to acknowledge the
    state court’s reasoning if we can fairly discern it. See Ylst v.
    Nunnemaker, 
    501 U.S. 797
    , 803 (1991) (describing an
    “unexplained” state-court order as one from which that
    court’s rationale is “undiscoverable”).10 We would do real
    10
    In Ylst, the Supreme Court held that when there is
    one reasoned state judgment rejecting a federal claim, any
    later unexplained orders upholding that judgment or rejecting
    the same claim will be presumed to rest upon the same
    ground. 
    501 U.S. at 803
    . In emphasizing the difficulty of
    discerning the reasoning behind an unexplained state-court
    order – or one “whose text or accompanying opinion does not
    disclose the reason for the judgment,” 
    id.
     at 802 – the Court
    said: “Indeed, sometimes the members of the court issuing an
    unexplained order will not themselves have agreed upon its
    rationale, so that the basis of the decision is not merely
    undiscoverable but nonexistent.” 
    Id. at 803
    . Although Ylst
    17
    damage to those principles were we to begin re-writing state
    court opinions to save them. Sometimes what appears to be a
    fundamental misstep is exactly that. Since the passage of
    AEDPA, the narrow purpose of federal habeas review has
    been to address just such missteps. See Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 103
     (“As a condition for obtaining habeas corpus from a
    federal court, a state prisoner must show that the state court’s
    ruling on the claim being presented in federal court was so
    lacking in justification that there was an error well understood
    and comprehended in existing law beyond any possibility for
    fairminded disagreement.”).
    There is yet another reason to think that Dennis I
    presents nothing more complicated than a Kyles error: the
    Commonwealth advocated it. Before the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court, the Commonwealth advanced the incorrect
    theory that it was not required to turn over favorable evidence
    in the possession of the police. It emphasized that, “even
    though Cason claims in her affidavit that [the receipt] was
    taken by the police,” the failure to produce that document
    could not constitute a Brady violation because “there [wa]s no
    reason to believe it was in the Commonwealth’s possession to
    be produced.” (App. 2026.) That argument presupposes,
    contrary to Kyles, that there exists a divide between
    discoverable evidence taken by the police and discoverable
    evidence in the prosecutor’s case file.
    At the time, that argument may have had some basis in
    Pennsylvania law, although it was already untenable because
    predates the passage of AEDPA, the Richter Court cited it
    favorably, 562 U.S. at 99-100, thus indicating the continued
    validity of its presumption.
    18
    of Kyles. In 1995, when Kyles was decided, the Pennsylvania
    rules governing discovery and evidence disclosure were not
    based on the premise that evidence possessed by the police is
    possessed by the prosecution. See Pa. R. Crim. Pro. 305B
    (Repealed) (requiring mandatory disclosure of evidence
    favorable to the accused only when it “is within the
    possession or control of the attorney for the
    Commonwealth”).       Even after Kyles was decided, the
    Pennsylvania Superior Court continued to hew to the out-
    moded state-law rule. See Commonwealth v. McElroy, 
    665 A.2d 813
    , 819 (Pa. Super. Ct. 1995). The Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court likewise continued to apply its discovery rules
    as written. See Commonwealth v. Gribble, 
    703 A.2d 426
    ,
    435-36 (Pa. 1997). It did not explicitly abrogate the faulty
    state rule of discovery until 2001. See Commonwealth v.
    Burke, 
    781 A.2d 1136
    , 1142 (Pa. 2001). Dennis I was
    decided in 1998. Thus, the court was not leaving a gap in its
    Dennis I opinion. It was accepting the Commonwealth’s
    unsound argument, and it practically said so.
    The wisdom of Richter gap-filling is open to
    reasonable criticism. A widely respected judge has expressed
    the view that gap-filling is unfair and incentivizes unreasoned
    decisions; it is a perspective that my colleague Judge
    Hardiman evidently shares, as described in his Dissent. See
    Mann v. Ryan, 
    774 F.3d 1203
    , 1225 (9th Cir. 2014)
    (Kozinski, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part)
    (Richter “has the perverse effect of encouraging state courts
    to deny relief summarily, to insulate their orders from
    tinkering by the federal courts.”), on reh’g en banc, No. 09-
    99017, 
    2016 WL 3854234
     (9th Cir. July 15, 2016). Given
    those criticisms, it has been suggested that we should engage
    in Richter gap-filling, and thus apply AEDPA deference, even
    19
    when a state court does give a reasoned basis for its
    conclusions. See 
    id. at 1224
     (Kozinski, J., concurring in part
    and dissenting in part) (“After Richter, it seems clear that we
    should assess the reasonableness of a state court’s decision,
    not its reasoning.”). Judge Hardiman would follow that
    approach here. (See J. Hardiman Dissent Op. at 4 (“I would
    hold that regardless of the thoroughness – or even the
    correctness – of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s stated
    reasoning, its judgment may not be upset so long as its
    decision did not contravene or unreasonably apply clearly
    established federal law … .”).) And, indeed, his approach
    may have some appeal as a matter of policy – he has
    identified those policy justifications well – but, as a matter of
    law, I do not believe we can go so far. Lafler does not accept
    that logic.
    Nor does the Supreme Court’s opinion in Wetzel v.
    Lambert, a post-Richter decision in which the Court dealt
    with a fully-reasoned (i.e., gapless) state court opinion. 
    132 S. Ct. 1195
     (2012) (per curiam). Wetzel described the
    required analytical path as follows:
    Under § 2254(d), a habeas court must determine
    what arguments or theories supported … the
    state court’s decision; and then it must ask
    whether it is possible fairminded jurists could
    disagree that those arguments or theories are
    inconsistent with the holding in a prior decision
    of this Court.
    Id. at 1198 (quoting Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 102
    ). The ellipsis in
    that quotation is significant, as the Court wholly excised the
    “or, as here, could have supported” language from its
    20
    quotation of Richter when describing how federal courts
    review a reasoned state-court decision. Compare supra note
    4. Rather than extending Richter, both Lafler and Wetzel
    suggest that gap-filling is reserved for only those cases where
    we cannot discern the basis for the state court’s conclusions.11
    11
    That reading of Richter has ample support in other
    circuits. See, e.g., Cannedy v. Adams, 
    706 F.3d 1148
    , 1158
    (9th Cir. 2013) (“[I]t does not follow from Richter that, when
    there is a reasoned decision by a lower state court, a federal
    habeas court may no longer ‘look through’ a higher state
    court’s summary denial to the reasoning of the lower state
    court.”); Johnson v. Secretary, DOC, 
    643 F.3d 907
    , 930 n.9
    (11th Cir. 2011) (“The Court’s instruction from Harrington
    does not apply here because the Florida Supreme Court did
    provide an explanation of its decision … .”); Sussman v.
    Jenkins, 
    642 F.3d 532
    , 534 (7th Cir. 2011) (distinguishing
    Richter because that case “addresses the situation in which a
    state-court decision ‘is unaccompanied by an explanation,’”
    whereas in the instant case “the state appellate court issued an
    opinion”).
    To read Richter to apply to a state court’s ultimate
    decisions, irrespective of stated reasoning, also requires that
    we assume the Richter Court intended to overrule some
    precedents sub silentio. In particular, Ylst established a
    presumption that “[w]here there has been one reasoned state
    judgment rejecting a federal claim, later unexplained orders
    upholding that judgment or rejecting the same claim rest upon
    the same ground.” 
    501 U.S. at 803
    . Judge Hardiman
    endeavors to narrow the Ylst presumption to only apply when
    we are uncertain as to whether the state court decided a claim
    “on the merits.” (J. Hardiman Dissent Op. at 15 n.7.) So, in
    his view, we look through to the last reasoned state court
    21
    decision to determine whether the case was decided on the
    merits, and then, having answered that question, take no
    account of the reasoning in that state court decision. But, in
    applying the Ylst presumption, the Supreme Court has
    analyzed and discussed the expressed reasoning of lower state
    courts. See Johnson v. Williams, 
    133 S. Ct. 1088
    , 1097-99
    (2013); see also Hittson v. Chatman, 
    135 S. Ct. 2126
    , 2128
    (2015) (Ginsburg, J., concurring in the denial of certiorari)
    (“There is no reason not to ‘look through’ … to determine the
    particular reasons why the state court rejected the claim on
    the merits.”). The proper application of the Ylst presumption
    raises all of the same policy problems Judge Hardiman has
    noted – just one step lower in the state review process. If we
    “look through” an unreasoned state court decision, Ylst
    presumably requires that we then review the reasoning given
    in the lower state court. If not, then why bother “looking
    through” at all? If we truly read Richter in the way Judge
    Hardiman proposes – and took his reasoning to its logical
    conclusion – it would require that we void the Ylst
    presumption, because we need not “look through” unreasoned
    judgments when we actually review only decisions and not
    their reasoning. But, in the words of the Supreme Court, “a
    presumption which gives [unreasoned orders] no effect –
    which simply ‘looks through’ them to the last reasoned
    decision – most nearly reflects the role they are ordinarily
    intended to play.” Ylst, 
    501 U.S. at 804
     (emphasis in
    original). It is hard to accept that the Richter Court intended
    to implicitly overrule Ylst, particularly because the Court
    cited Ylst favorably. See Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 99-100
    . The
    Court also applied the Ylst presumption just this past term,
    thus confirming its continued viability. See Kernan v.
    Hinojosa, 
    136 S. Ct. 1603
    , 1605-06 (2016) (per curiam).
    22
    And, under Judge Hardiman’s approach, Ylst is not the
    only precedent that would have to fall. Compare J. Hardiman
    Dissent Op. at 14-15 (“Where the state court denies relief but
    addresses only certain prongs of a test or components of a
    claim, the reviewing federal court should likewise consider
    what reasons regarding an unaddressed prong or component
    could have supported the decision.”), with Wiggins v. Smith,
    
    539 U.S. 510
    , 534 (2003) (reviewing a Strickland claim, and
    concluding that its “review is not circumscribed by a state
    court conclusion with respect to prejudice, as neither of the
    state courts below reached this prong of the Strickland
    analysis”), and Palmer v. Hendricks, 
    592 F.3d 386
    , 400 (3d
    Cir. 2010) (citing Wiggins for the proposition “that because
    the state courts did not decide the prejudice issue on the
    merits, AEDPA’s deferential standards do not apply to our
    resolution of the prejudice question”). In Wiggins, the
    Supreme Court did not defer to the state court’s order in
    assessing the second prong of the petitioner’s Strickland
    claim because “neither of the state courts below reached this
    prong of the Strickland analysis.” 
    539 U.S. at 534
    . The
    Court thus acted contrary to Judge Hardiman’s proposed
    holding here – it engaged in de novo review of the second
    prong even though “the state court denie[d] relief but
    addresse[d] only certain prongs of a test or components of a
    claim … .” (J. Hardiman Dissent Op. at 14.) Judge
    Hardiman forthrightly acknowledges that his proposed
    holding is in tension with Wiggins, but then suggests that
    Richter (as the later of the two cases) undermines Wiggins. I
    do not believe that Richter intended that result, especially
    because the two cases can be reconciled.
    23
    That is not the case here. Were Dennis in exactly the
    same position but the Dennis I opinion contained one or two
    fewer sentences, there would perhaps be a gap to fill and I
    would be joining my dissenting colleagues in applying
    AEDPA deference, but there is no gap. The Dennis I opinion
    suffers from erroneous and not opaque reasoning. It may
    seem odd that so much hinges on so little, with a man’s life
    depending on the difference between bad reasoning and no
    reasoning. That, however, is the analytical distinction drawn
    by Supreme Court precedent, including Richter, Premo, and
    Lafler.12
    12
    Again, if we determine that a state court’s reasoning
    is contrary to clearly established federal law, we then engage
    in de novo review of the claim in question. See supra note 6;
    Panetti, 
    551 U.S. at 948-54
    . In his dissent, Judge Hardiman
    posits a hypothetical in which our decision to grant habeas
    relief could turn on the state court’s method of drafting its
    decision. If the state court issues a summary order, we would
    apply Richter and deny habeas relief by application of
    AEDPA deference. If, however, it issues a reasoned decision,
    and that reasoning is contrary to clearly-established federal
    law, we would grant habeas relief – to the very same claimant
    – after de novo review of the underlying claim. My colleague
    thinks that outcome absurd, but, whether we like it or not, that
    is what the Supreme Court directs us to do. Under AEDPA,
    we must defer (1) to the reasoning actually elaborated in a
    state court decision, and (2) to any basis that can reasonably
    support a state court’s decision, but only if its own reasoning
    cannot be fairly discerned. The latter is the import of Richter.
    If the Supreme Court wanted us to afford AEDPA deference
    to all state court decisions regardless of the extent of their
    reasoning, that would be a rule of considerable consequence
    24
    Given the magnitude of the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court’s error regarding the Cason receipt, this case presents
    the sort of “extreme malfunction[] in the state criminal justice
    system” that demands our intervention. Richter, 562 U.S. at
    102 (internal quotation marks omitted). I therefore concur in
    Part III.A of the Majority’s opinion, insofar as it explains why
    it is proper to grant Dennis habeas relief on de novo review of
    the Cason receipt Brady claim, and I concur in Part II of the
    Majority opinion and in the judgment.
    for habeas petitioners. Presumably the Supreme Court would
    have said (or at least suggested) as much in Richter, Premo,
    Lafler, Wetzel, or any of the other numerous habeas appeals it
    has considered in recent years and that Judge Hardiman has
    collected in his dissent. If anything, though, the Court has
    said the contrary. See Panetti, 
    551 U.S. at
    954 (Ҥ 2254 does
    not preclude relief if either the reasoning or the result of the
    state-court decision contradicts” clearly-established Supreme
    Court precedent (internal quotation marks and alteration
    omitted, emphasis added).).
    A petitioner does not get any windfall under the
    approach I have outlined based on Supreme Court precedent.
    If his claim does not have merit, it will fail even under de
    novo review. Under Judge Hardiman’s approach, by contrast,
    state prosecution teams do get a windfall. They would prevail
    unless every conceivable route to victory is “contrary to …
    clearly established Federal law, as determined by the
    Supreme Court of the United States.”                
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). In other words, the prosecution wins even if it
    never argued a sensible position and the state court gave only
    a completely erroneous basis for its decision. I do not believe
    we can or should read Richter as going that far.
    25
    FISHER, Circuit Judge, dissenting, with whom SMITH,
    CHAGARES and HARDIMAN, Circuit Judges, join.
    A Philadelphia jury convicted James Dennis of murder
    and sentenced him to death. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    affirmed his conviction and sentence. His petition for
    postconviction relief was denied, and, after several interven-
    ing decisions, this denial was affirmed by the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court. The Majority overturns these state-court
    decisions by concluding that the prosecution failed to disclose
    to Dennis exculpatory material in violation of Brady v.
    Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
     (1963). The Majority is particularly
    concerned about the reliability of eyewitness testimony and
    about a “shodd[y]” investigation by the Philadelphia police.
    Maj. Op. 89. By taking this approach, the Majority goes off
    course for two reasons. First, the evidence against Dennis was
    strong—it is hard to discount the identification testimony of
    three eyewitnesses. Second, and more importantly, the
    Majority fails to adhere to the narrowly circumscribed scope
    of habeas review. Congress has decreed that we may not grant
    a writ of habeas corpus unless the judgment of the state court
    was clearly unreasonable, not merely incorrect. Applying this
    standard of review to a case such as this one is difficult, but
    the Supreme Court has repeatedly reversed those courts of
    appeals that have not faithfully followed this mandate. The
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court did not unreasonably apply
    clearly established federal law, and for that reason I dissent.
    I
    On a sunny fall afternoon in 1991, Chedell Williams and
    her friend Zahra Howard got off the bus that had brought
    1
    them from their high school and climbed the steps of the Fern
    Rock SEPTA station in Philadelphia. Two men accosted them
    and demanded their earrings. Williams ran into the street to
    escape. One of the men chased her, grabbed her, and ripped
    her earrings out of her ears. He raised a silver revolver and
    fired one shot into her neck from less than an inch away.
    Williams collapsed and died. The shooter fled. Three
    eyewitnesses, including Howard, observed the shooter at
    close range. They each identified the shooter in a photo array,
    in a lineup, and at trial: the shooter was James Dennis.
    The Majority discusses in detail the testimony of the
    three eyewitnesses who testified at trial that Dennis shot
    Williams: Zahra Howard, Thomas Bertha, and James
    Cameron. The Majority calls out discrepancies between the
    eyewitnesses’ descriptions of the shooter’s height and weight
    (said to be 5′9″ or 5′10″ and 170 to 180 pounds) and Dennis’s
    actual size (5′5″ and 125 to 135 pounds). The reliability of the
    eyewitness identifications is irrelevant to the legal question
    we must decide—which is whether the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court unreasonably applied Brady and its progeny. Neverthe-
    less, a few points about the identifications are worth
    mentioning. First, the visual conditions were excellent. The
    murder occurred in the afternoon and the weather was clear.
    Second, the witnesses saw the shooter at close range and had
    unobstructed views of his face. Howard was one to two feet
    away from the shooter and looked him in the face. Bertha and
    the shooter made eye contact from less than eight feet away,
    and Bertha was able to observe the expression on the
    shooter’s face. Cameron saw the face of the shooter from
    eight to ten feet away. Third, none of the identifications was
    2
    cross-racial. See Arizona v. Youngblood, 
    488 U.S. 51
    , 72 n.8
    (1988) (Blackmun, J., dissenting) (noting studies showing that
    cross-racial identifications are less accurate than same-race
    identifications). And fourth, witnesses generally overestimate
    the height and weight of men who are below population
    averages, as Dennis was. Christian A. Meissner et al., Person
    Descriptions as Eyewitness Evidence 3, 8, in 2 Handbook of
    Eyewitness Psychology (Rod C.L. Lindsay et al., eds. 2007)
    (noting a tendency for witnesses to underestimate the height
    of taller targets and overestimate the height of shorter
    targets); Rhona H. Flin & John W. Shepherd, Tall Stories:
    Eyewitnesses’ Ability to Estimate Height and Weight
    Characteristics, 5 Human Learning 29, 34 (1986) (noting the
    same effect for both height and weight); see 
    id.
     at 36 (citing a
    study finding that “witnesses tend to overestimate the height
    of criminals”).
    The defense vigorously cross-examined these witnesses
    and elicited some discrepancies between their testimony and
    prior statements and between estimates of the shooter’s height
    and weight and Dennis’s. Nevertheless, the jury found the
    eyewitnesses’ testimony credible. In addition to that testimony,
    the prosecution called Charles Thompson, a member of
    Dennis’s singing group, who testified that he saw Dennis with
    a small silver handgun several hours after the murder.
    Whatever one might feel about the testimony of these
    witnesses or the testimony of eyewitnesses in general, the
    evidence that convinced the jury to convict Dennis was not,
    as the district court described it, “scant evidence at best.”
    Dennis v. Wetzel, 
    966 F. Supp. 2d 489
    , 491 (E.D. Pa. 2013).
    3
    Dennis’s Brady claims concern three documents that he
    asserts the prosecution should have turned over to him before
    trial: a receipt from the Department of Public Welfare (DPW),
    a police activity sheet reporting a conversation with
    Williams’s aunt and uncle, and police records describing the
    investigation of a jailhouse tip. The receipt relates to a
    possible alibi witness, Latanya Cason. Dennis told police that
    he was riding a bus at the time of the murder—shortly before
    2:00 p.m.—and that he saw Cason and waved to her as he left
    the bus. Cason testified at trial that she saw Dennis at 4:00 or
    4:30 p.m., which did not support his alibi. Cason visited the
    DPW before seeing Dennis that day. Dennis asserts that the
    police had a time-stamped receipt from Cason’s DPW visit
    and that, had the receipt been turned over to the defense,
    Cason would have testified that she saw Dennis at 2:00 or
    2:30 p.m. The subject of Dennis’s second claim is a police
    activity sheet containing detectives’ notes of an interview
    with Williams’s aunt and uncle, Diane and Mannasett Pugh.
    According to the notes, the Pughs told detectives that Zahra
    Howard told them she recognized the shooter from her high
    school. This conflicts with Howard’s statements to police and
    testimony at trial that she had never seen the shooter before.
    The third Brady claim concerns police records of an
    investigation of a tip by an inmate, William Frazier, who told
    police that his friend, Tony Brown, admitted to Frazier that
    Brown shot Williams. Police never located Tony Brown, and
    Frazier later admitted that he made up the entire story.
    The district court concluded that the prosecution violated
    Brady by suppressing each of these three items and found that
    the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s determinations to the
    4
    contrary unreasonably applied clearly established Supreme
    Court precedent. I disagree with the Majority’s affirmance of
    the district court and will explain my reasons in detail.
    II
    The source of my disagreement with the Majority is its
    failure to apply the deferential standard of review prescribed
    by the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act
    (AEDPA). When a state prisoner applies for a writ of habeas
    corpus on a claim that was adjudicated on the merits in state
    court, a federal court may not grant the application unless the
    state court’s decision was “contrary to, or involved an
    unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law,
    as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States” or
    “resulted in a decision that was based on an unreasonable
    determination of the facts in light of the evidence presented in
    the State court proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d). A state
    court’s application of the law or determination of the facts is
    not unreasonable merely because it is—in the eyes of the
    reviewing federal court—wrong. The decision must be “so
    lacking in justification that there was an error well understood
    and comprehended in existing law beyond any possibility for
    fair-minded disagreement.” Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 103 (2011).
    We must give state-court decisions “the benefit of the
    doubt.” Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. 170
    , 181 (2011). This
    duty to give state-court decisions deference applies even
    when a state court does not give a reasoned explanation of its
    decision. “Where a state court’s decision is unaccompanied
    by an explanation, the habeas petitioner’s burden still must be
    5
    met by showing there was no reasonable basis for the state
    court to deny relief.” Richter, 562 U.S. at 98. In such a
    situation, the reviewing federal court must consider arguments
    and theories that “could have supported” the decision. Id. at
    102.
    The AEDPA standard is intentionally difficult to meet.
    The standard reflects state courts’ competence to resolve
    federal constitutional questions and states’ strong interest in
    controlling their criminal justice systems. Federal habeas
    corpus is designed to “‘guard against extreme malfunctions in
    the state criminal justice systems,’ not [to] substitute for
    ordinary error correction through appeal.” Id. at 102–03
    (quoting Jackson v. Virginia, 
    443 U.S. 307
    , 332 n.5 (1979)
    (Stevens, J., concurring)). Among the courts of appeals,
    however, there has been some reluctance to adhere to the
    AEDPA standard as defined by the Supreme Court. In recent
    terms, the Court has issued a string of reversals, many as
    summary per curiam opinions, for failure to apply the correct
    standard of review under AEDPA. See, e.g., Woods v.
    Etherton, 
    136 S. Ct. 1149
     (2016) (per curiam); Woods v.
    Donald, 
    135 S. Ct. 1372
     (2015) (per curiam); Glebe v. Frost,
    
    135 S. Ct. 429
     (2014); Lopez v. Smith, 
    135 S. Ct. 1
     (2014)
    (per curiam); Marshall v. Rodgers, 
    133 S. Ct. 1446
     (2013)
    (per curiam); Parker v. Matthews, 
    132 S. Ct. 2148
     (2012) (per
    curiam); Renico v. Lett, 
    559 U.S. 766
     (2010). There are many
    more. I fear that this case may join that list.
    The Majority holds that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    unreasonably applied the United States Supreme Court’s
    decisions in the line of cases discussing prosecutors’ duty to
    turn over favorable evidence to the defense. In Brady v.
    6
    Maryland, the Court held that “the suppression by the
    prosecution of evidence favorable to an accused upon request
    violates due process where the evidence is material either to
    guilt or to punishment, irrespective of the good faith or bad
    faith of the prosecution.” 
    373 U.S. at 87
    . The Court later ruled
    that the duty to disclose exculpatory evidence applies whether
    a defendant requests it or not. United States v. Agurs, 
    427 U.S. 97
    , 107 (1976). The Court explained that a Brady
    violation has three components: evidence that is (1) favorable
    to the defendant, (2) suppressed by the prosecution, and (3)
    material. Strickler v. Greene, 
    527 U.S. 263
    , 281–82 (1999).
    Favorable evidence includes both exculpatory evidence and
    evidence that could be used to impeach prosecution
    witnesses. United States v. Bagley, 
    473 U.S. 667
    , 676 (1985).
    Evidence can be suppressed even if it is only known to the
    police and not to the prosecutor—“the individual prosecutor
    has a duty to learn of any favorable evidence known to the
    others acting on the government’s behalf in the case,
    including the police.” Kyles v. Whitley, 
    514 U.S. 419
    , 437
    (1995). Evidence is material if “there is a reasonable
    probability that the suppressed evidence would have produced
    a different verdict.” Strickler, 
    527 U.S. at 281
    . The materiality
    of suppressed evidence must be assessed cumulatively, “not
    item by item.” Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at 436
    .
    III
    A
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court addressed the Brady
    claim based on Latanya Cason’s DPW receipt (and an
    ineffective assistance of counsel claim based on his counsel’s
    7
    failure to investigate Cason) without providing much
    reasoning or detail. The court noted that Cason testified that
    she saw Dennis at around 4:00 or 4:30 p.m. the day of the
    murder based on her recollection that she had left work to
    cash her welfare check at about 2:00 p.m. “During their
    investigation, however, the police came into possession of a
    Department of Public Welfare (DPW) receipt showing that
    Cason cashed her check at 1:03 p.m.” Commonwealth v.
    Dennis, 
    715 A.2d 404
    , 408 (Pa. 1998) (“Dennis I ”). The court
    found that the receipt was not material because even if the
    defense knew of the receipt, Cason’s corrected testimony
    “would not support [Dennis’s] alibi … because the murder
    occurred at 1:50 p.m., forty minutes earlier than Cason’s
    earliest estimate.” 
    Id.
     The court concluded: “Finally, it is clear
    that there clearly was no Brady violation. The DPW receipt
    was not exculpatory, because it had no bearing on [Dennis’s]
    alibi, and there is no evidence that the Commonwealth
    withheld the receipt from the defense.” 
    Id.
    I agree with the Majority that the Cason receipt was
    favorable to Dennis and was material, but I disagree with the
    Majority’s conclusion that the receipt was suppressed.
    Despite the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s representations
    about clarity, it is not clear what the court meant by “there is
    no evidence that the Commonwealth withheld the receipt
    from the defense.” The Majority acknowledges that the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court “provided no explanation.” Maj.
    Op. 46. Yet the Majority assumes that the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court made an unreasonable finding of fact or
    conclusion of law that the prosecution had no duty to disclose
    8
    the receipt because it was in possession of the police—a
    finding clearly foreclosed by Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at
    437–38.
    When a state court does not give a reasoned explanation,
    we are not permitted to assume or guess what the most likely
    explanation is. “Where a state court’s decision is unaccompa-
    nied by an explanation, the habeas petitioner’s burden still
    must be met by showing there was no reasonable basis for the
    state court to deny relief.” Richter, 562 U.S. at 98 (emphasis
    added). In other words, when there is an analytical gap in a
    state court’s reasoning, we must consider “what arguments or
    theories … could have supported … the state court’s
    decision.” Id. at 102.
    Although the state-court decision at issue in Richter was
    a summary disposition, the Supreme Court’s instruction to
    consider arguments that could have supported the state court’s
    decision is not limited to summary dispositions. In Premo v.
    Moore, 
    562 U.S. 115
     (2011), which was decided the same day
    as Richter, the Supreme Court considered theories that could
    have supported a reasoned, written decision with an analytical
    gap. In state postconviction relief proceedings, Moore argued
    that his counsel had been unconstitutionally ineffective under
    Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984). The state
    court rejected his Strickland argument, but, as the Supreme
    Court noted, the “state court did not specify” whether the
    ineffectiveness claim failed “because there was no deficient
    performance under Strickland or because Moore suffered no
    Strickland prejudice, or both.” Moore, 
    562 U.S. at 123
    . In
    order for a federal court to grant habeas relief, both prongs
    would need to have involved an unreasonable application of
    clearly established federal law. 
    Id.
     The Supreme Court found
    9
    that the state court “reasonably could have concluded that
    Moore was not prejudiced by [his] counsel’s actions. Under
    AEDPA, that finding ends federal review.” 
    Id. at 131
    .
    Because the Pennsylvania Supreme Court provided no
    explanation for why it found that the receipt was not withheld
    from the defense, there is an analytical gap. This gap is more
    open-ended than the two possibilities the state court could
    have considered in Moore and narrower than a summary
    disposition, such as Richter, where the universe of possible
    theories is broad. But our obligation to consider what theories
    could have supported the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s
    decision is no less than in Richter and Moore.
    Judge Jordan, in his opinion concurring in part and
    concurring in the judgment, takes the position that there is no
    gap to be filled under Richter and Moore. He believes that the
    only way to explain the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s
    statements that the police had the receipt but that the
    Commonwealth did not withhold the receipt is that the court
    failed to apply Kyles. Judge Jordan concludes that the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court “simply found that there was no
    evidence that the prosecutor possessed the Cason receipt.”
    Concurring Op. 13. This is a reasonable explanation, but it is
    not the only explanation. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s
    opinion lacks sufficient analysis to tell what it meant by
    “there is no evidence the Commonwealth withheld the receipt
    from the defense.” Dennis I, 715 A.2d at 408. If we “take the
    state court’s decision as written,” Concurring Op. 13, rather
    than assuming that the state court made a mistake, there is an
    analytical gap.
    10
    The Majority also takes the position that the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court violated Kyles. The Majority
    notes, however, that “[t]he Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    provided no explanation for its … statement [that there was
    ‘no evidence that the Commonwealth withheld the receipt
    from the defense’], and we cannot be sure whether the court
    was assessing the facts or interpreting the law.” Maj. Op. 46.
    Despite this lack of clarity, the Majority is evidently certain
    that it knows “the precise basis for the state court’s ruling.”
    Id. at 34. Unlike the Majority, I am unable to discern the
    precise basis for the state court’s ruling, and, for that reason,
    this is one of those cases in which consideration of theories
    that could have supported the state court’s decision is
    required.
    This required consideration leads to the conclusion that
    there is a viable gap-filling theory here: the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court could have meant that the receipt was not
    withheld because it was available to the defense with
    reasonable diligence. The reasonable diligence “branch of the
    Brady doctrine” is evident, albeit inconsistent, in our own
    precedents. See United States v. Perdomo, 
    929 F.2d 967
    , 973
    (3d Cir. 1991) (“Evidence is not considered to be suppressed
    if the defendant either knew or should have known of the
    essential facts permitting him to take advantage of any
    exculpatory evidence.” (emphasis added)); United States v.
    Starusko, 
    729 F.2d 256
    , 262 (3d Cir. 1984) (“[T]he
    government is not obliged under Brady to furnish a defendant
    with information which he already has or, with any
    reasonable diligence, he can obtain himself.” (quoting United
    States v. Campagnuolo, 
    592 F.2d 852
    , 861 (5th Cir. 1979)).
    11
    But see Wilson v. Beard, 
    589 F.3d 651
    , 664 (3d Cir. 2009)
    (“[T]he fact that a criminal record is a public document
    cannot absolve the prosecutor of her responsibility to provide
    that record to defense counsel.” (internal quotation mark
    omitted)).
    Despite this inconsistency, we reinforced the conclusion
    that Brady has a reasonable diligence component in Grant v.
    Lockett, 
    709 F.3d 224
    , 231 (3d Cir. 2013). In Grant, the
    prosecution failed to disclose that its key witness—the only
    person who testified that Grant was the shooter—was on
    parole at the time of the shooting. Grant’s postconviction
    relief counsel was able to discover that the witness was on
    parole, and his trial counsel could have looked up the
    witness’s criminal history in records kept by the clerk of
    court. We concluded that Grant’s Brady claim “lacked merit”
    because “trial counsel could have discovered [the witness’s]
    parole status had he exercised reasonable diligence.” 
    Id. at 230, 231
    .
    The Majority correctly notes that our case law on Brady
    reasonable diligence “is inconsistent and could easily
    confuse” and clarifies that reasonable diligence “plays no role
    in the Brady analysis.” Maj. Op. 54. This clarification to our
    case law is helpful, and were we reviewing this case on direct
    appeal it would be entirely appropriate. The “no reasonable
    diligence” rule may indeed represent the best interpretation of
    the Supreme Court’s Brady case law. But this rule is
    nonetheless an interpretation of Supreme Court precedent. It
    does not represent a clearly established holding of the Court,
    and it does not mean that any other interpretation is
    unreasonable.
    12
    The reasonableness of interpreting Brady to have a
    reasonable diligence component is supported by the decisions
    of other courts of appeals. The Majority notes with surprise
    that “several Courts of Appeals have endorsed some form of a
    due diligence requirement.” Maj. Op. 54 n.20. “Several”
    understates the matter. A majority of the courts of appeals
    have applied a reasonable diligence requirement at one time
    or another.1 The number of courts (including our court, ten
    1. First Circuit: United States v. Rodriguez, 
    162 F.3d 135
    ,
    147 (1st Cir. 1998) (“The government has no Brady
    burden when the necessary facts for impeachment are
    readily available to a diligent defender ….”).
    Second Circuit: United States v. Payne, 
    63 F.3d 1200
    ,
    1208 (2d Cir. 1995) (“[E]vidence is not considered to
    have been suppressed within the meaning of the Brady
    doctrine if the defendant or his attorney either knew, or
    should have known, of the essential facts permitting him
    to take advantage of that evidence.” (internal quotation
    marks and alteration omitted)).
    Fourth Circuit: United States v. Wilson, 
    901 F.2d 378
    ,
    381 (4th Cir. 1990) (“[W]here the exculpatory
    information is not only available to the defendant but also
    lies in a source where a reasonable defendant would have
    looked, a defendant is not entitled to the benefit of the
    Brady doctrine.”).
    Fifth Circuit: United States v. Dixon, 
    132 F.3d 192
    , 199
    (5th Cir. 1997) (“Brady does not obligate the government
    to produce for a defendant evidence or information
    13
    already known to him, or that he could have obtained
    from other sources by exercising reasonable diligence.”
    (internal quotation marks and alteration omitted)); United
    States v. Prior, 
    546 F.2d 1254
    , 1259 (5th Cir. 1977)
    (“[N]umerous cases have ruled that the government is not
    obliged under Brady to furnish a defendant with
    information which he already has or, with any reasonable
    diligence, he can obtain himself.”).
    Sixth Circuit: Matthews v. Ishee, 
    486 F.3d 883
    , 891 (6th
    Cir. 2007) (“Where … the factual basis for a claim is
    reasonably available to the petitioner or his counsel from
    another source, the government is under no duty to
    supply that information to the defense.” (internal
    quotation marks omitted)).
    Seventh Circuit: Boss v. Pierce, 
    263 F.3d 734
    , 740 (7th
    Cir. 2001) (“Evidence is suppressed for Brady purposes
    only if … the evidence was not otherwise available to the
    defendant through the exercise of reasonable diligence.”).
    Eighth Circuit: United States v. Zuazo, 
    243 F.3d 428
    ,
    431 (8th Cir. 2001) (“The government does not suppress
    evidence in violation of Brady by failing to disclose
    evidence to which the defendant had access through other
    channels.”).
    Ninth Circuit: Raley v. Ylst, 
    470 F.3d 792
    , 804 (9th Cir.
    2006) (“[W]here the defendant is aware of the essential
    facts enabling him to take advantage of any exculpatory
    evidence, the Government does not commit a Brady
    14
    out of the twelve regional courts of appeals) and decisions
    applying a reasonable diligence requirement hardly evince a
    clearly established Supreme Court rule that reasonable
    diligence plays no role in the Brady analysis. Even if the
    Majority is correct and all these decisions erroneously applied
    Brady, it is hard to conclude that the error is “well understood
    and comprehended in existing law” and “beyond any
    possibility for fairminded disagreement.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 103
    . Surely, given the number of federal circuit judges who
    have concluded that reasonable diligence is a consideration in
    the analysis of a Brady claim, “it is possible fairminded jurists
    could disagree” that reasonable diligence is inconsistent with
    Supreme Court precedent. 
    Id. at 102
    .
    Under the specific facts of this case, the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court easily could have concluded that Latanya
    Cason’s DPW receipt was available to Dennis’s counsel had
    his counsel exercised reasonable diligence. Dennis was aware
    of Cason—the police only interviewed her after Dennis told
    violation by not bringing the evidence to the attention of
    the defense.” (quoting United States v. Brown, 
    582 F.2d 197
    , 200 (2d Cir. 1978)).
    Eleventh Circuit: LeCroy v. Sec’y, Fla. Dep’t of Corr.,
    
    421 F.3d 1237
    , 1268 (11th Cir. 2005) (“To establish that
    he suffered a Brady violation, the defendant must prove
    that … the defendant did not possess the evidence and
    could not have obtained it with reasonable diligence
    ….”).
    15
    them she had seen him. Dennis’s appellate counsel obtained
    the receipt from the DPW. And Dennis argued that his trial
    counsel would have located the receipt with “minimal
    investigation.”2 (App. 1800.) It was not an unreasonable
    application of clearly established Supreme Court precedent
    for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to conclude that there
    was no Brady violation where trial counsel could have
    discovered the evidence by exercising reasonable diligence
    and investigating his own client’s alibi witness. See United
    States v. Senn, 
    129 F.3d 886
    , 893 (7th Cir. 1997) (“[T]he
    defendants are hoisted by their own petard: without having
    obtained the Broward County file they would not have a
    Brady argument, but the ease with which they obtained their
    file defeats their claim.”).
    The Majority contends the Supreme Court did “away
    with any belief that Brady imposes a due diligence
    requirement” in Banks v. Dretke, 
    540 U.S. 668
     (2004). Maj.
    Op. 53. But Banks, which was decided after the Pennsylvania
    2. The Majority asserts that the DPW receipt was not
    publicly available because DPW regulations prevent
    disclosure of information about welfare recipients. Maj.
    Op. 49–50. Dennis did not argue this point below or raise
    it on appeal, and, to the extent the DPW privacy
    regulations applied to the receipt, Dennis’s admission that
    the receipt was available with minimal investigation
    makes the regulations irrelevant.
    16
    Supreme Court’s decision in Dennis I,3 is distinguishable. In
    Banks, the prosecution withheld evidence that one
    prosecution witness had been “intensively coached” by
    prosecutors before his testimony and another witness was a
    paid police informant. 
    540 U.S. at
    677–78. The prosecution
    failed to correct these witnesses’ testimony when the
    witnesses denied talking to anyone about their testimony or
    receiving payments from police. 
    Id.
     The Supreme Court
    refused to adopt a rule allowing the prosecution to “lie and
    conceal” evidence so long as the prisoner might have been
    able to detect the “potential existence” of prosecutorial
    misconduct. 
    Id. at 696
    . Unlike the DPW receipt at issue in the
    present case, the evidence in Banks of the witness coaching
    and police payments was solely in the hands of the
    prosecution. No amount of diligent investigation would have
    uncovered that evidence. Banks is not directly applicable to
    evidence that could have been discovered after “minimal
    investigation.” See Bell v. Bell, 
    512 F.3d 223
    , 235 (6th Cir.
    2008) (en banc) (concluding that Banks did not call into
    question precedents applying a reasonable diligence
    requirement).
    3. See Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 412 (2000) (“[T]he
    phrase ‘clearly established Federal law, as determined by
    the Supreme Court of the United States’ … refers to the
    holdings, as opposed to the dicta, of this Court’s decisions
    as of the time of the relevant state-court decision.”
    (emphasis added)).
    17
    Under these circumstances, I cannot conclude that the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s denial of Dennis’s Brady
    claim based on the receipt was an unreasonable application of
    clearly established Supreme Court precedent.
    B
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court reasonably determined
    that the Pugh statement was immaterial under Brady. The
    statement was found in a police activity sheet that showed
    that Chedell Williams’s aunt and uncle, Diane and Mannasett
    Pugh, told police that Zahra Howard told them that she
    recognized the shooter from school. This alleged statement is
    contrary to what Howard repeatedly told police and testified
    about at trial—that she had never seen the shooter before he
    accosted Williams and her at the SEPTA station.
    The postconviction relief court held an evidentiary
    hearing about this Brady claim. Howard testified that she
    never told Williams’s family that she had seen the shooter
    before. When confronted by the purported statement in the
    police activity sheet, she denied ever having made it. Diane
    Pugh testified that, as far as she could remember, Howard
    never said she recognized the shooter before the murder.
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court concluded that the
    police activity sheet showing the Pugh statement was not
    material under Brady because there was no reasonable
    probability of a different result had the sheet been turned
    over. Commonwealth v. Dennis, 
    17 A.3d 297
    , 308–09 (Pa.
    2011) (“Dennis IV ”). The Pennsylvania Supreme Court noted
    that Howard “was extensively cross-examined at trial” about
    18
    her identification of Dennis, including about whether she had
    ever seen the shooter before, and she steadfastly testified that
    Dennis was the shooter and that she had never seen him
    before. 
    Id. at 309
    . Two eyewitnesses other than Howard
    identified Dennis in a photo array, in a line up, and at trial,
    and these witnesses would not have been affected by any
    impeachment of Howard. 
    Id.
     For these reasons, the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court held that Dennis “still received
    a fair trial resulting in a verdict worthy of confidence.” 
    Id.
    This conclusion was not an unreasonable interpretation of
    Supreme Court precedent.
    The Majority correctly notes that heavy impeachment of
    a witness does not render further impeachment immaterial.
    See Banks, 
    540 U.S. at 702
    . In Banks, the prosecution
    suppressed information that a key witness was a government
    informant, and the government argued this information was
    “merely cumulative” because the witness was heavily
    impeached at trial. 
    Id.
     None of the testimony at trial
    concerned the witness’s status as an informant, however. The
    Court concluded this missing information was material
    because the jury was ignorant of the witness’s “true role” in
    the case. 
    Id.
    The impeachment value of the activity sheet in this case
    was minor. Howard’s identification of Dennis was cross-
    examined at trial. She credibly testified in the postconviction
    relief hearing that she never made the statements attributed to
    her in the activity sheet. The activity sheet’s double hearsay
    makes it inherently weak. This is not the kind of evidence
    considered material in Banks.
    19
    The Majority asserts that had the activity sheet been
    disclosed, “defense counsel could have impeached Howard in
    a manner that very well may have led her to admit she
    recognized the perpetrators from her high school.” Maj. Op.
    76. There is no basis in the record for this speculation, which
    is undercut by Howard’s consistency in all her sworn
    testimony at trial and during the postconviction relief hearing.
    Such a dramatic courtroom reversal is more likely in a
    Matlock or Perry Mason script than in reality. The unlikely
    nature of this speculation does not create a reasonable
    probability of a different result or “undermine confidence in
    the outcome,” as required for Brady materiality.4 Kyles, 
    473 U.S. at 682
    .
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s consideration of the
    strength of the other evidence against Dennis was also not
    unreasonable. The materiality of the activity sheet “must be
    evaluated in the context of the entire record.” Agurs, 
    427 U.S. at 112
    . And “evidence impeaching an eyewitness may not be
    material if the State’s other evidence is strong enough to
    sustain confidence in the verdict.” Smith v. Cain, 
    132 S. Ct. 4
    . The Majority adopts the district court’s conclusion that
    the activity sheet would have shown that Howard either
    lied to the Pughs or lied at trial. Maj. Op. 76. Given
    Howard’s testimony at trial and the postconviction relief
    hearings, an alternative conclusion is as least as likely: in
    a crowded and grieving house immediately after the
    murder, the Pughs misunderstood or later misreported
    what Howard said.
    20
    627, 630 (2012). The Pennsylvania Supreme Court could
    reasonably have concluded, in the context of the entire record,
    that any impeachment value of the activity sheet would not
    undermine confidence in the verdict. Bertha and Cameron
    also identified Dennis in a photo array, in a line up, and at
    trial. Impeachment of Howard would not have affected the
    weight of their testimony.
    The Majority emphasizes the importance of Howard as
    “the eyewitness with the most significant exposure to the
    shooter” and minimizes Bertha and Cameron as “located
    farther away” with “only brief glimpses of the perpetrators”
    or “paying little attention.” Maj. Op. 76. But in this case,
    “farther away” was only eight feet from the shooter for
    Bertha and ten feet from the shooter for Cameron, and each
    had an unobstructed view of the shooter’s face. To the extent
    Bertha and Cameron had not been paying attention to the
    commotion, the gunshot focused their view and spurred them
    into action. Bertha stepped into the street as the shooter ran
    past, stopped as the shooter raised his gun, and then followed
    behind him. Cameron and the shooter made eye contact.
    When the shooter fled, Cameron ran to aid Williams. The
    eyewitness testimony of Bertha and Cameron was powerful
    evidence of guilt.
    The Majority criticizes the Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    for applying a “sufficiency of the evidence” standard in lieu
    of the appropriate Brady materiality standard. Nowhere,
    however, did the Pennsylvania Supreme Court articulate the
    wrong standard. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court recognized
    that Brady materiality is not a question of sufficiency of
    21
    evidence in Commonwealth v. Weiss, 
    986 A.2d 808
     (Pa.
    2009), and it cited Weiss in Dennis IV.5
    The Majority nevertheless concludes that, even if the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court knew the correct standard, it
    unreasonably applied that standard to the facts of this case.
    The Majority focuses on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s
    statement that “disclosure of the activity sheet would have
    had no impact upon [Bertha’s and Cameron’s eyewitness]
    testimony.” Dennis IV, 
    17 A.3d at 309
    . According to the
    Majority, this is evidence that the Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court was proceeding down a wrong “analytical path.” Maj.
    Op. 81. But there is nothing inherently wrong with this
    analytical path. The United States Supreme Court has, at
    times, made similar statements.
    For instance, in Strickler v. Greene, the prosecution
    withheld exculpatory materials that would have been
    5. See Weiss, 986 A.2d at 816 (remanding to the
    postconviction relief court to “consider whether
    disclosure of the impeachment evidence to competent
    counsel would have made a different result reasonably
    probable,” which “will necessarily entail a review of all
    the evidence presented at trial, not for its sufficiency, but
    for the potential negative effect disclosure of the alleged
    impeachment evidence would have had thereon”); id. at
    815 (“The United States Supreme Court has made clear
    that Bagley’s materiality standard is not a sufficiency of
    the evidence test.”).
    22
    “devastating ammunition for impeaching” the prosecution’s
    key witness, Anne Stoltzfus. 
    527 U.S. 263
    , 296 (1999)
    (Souter, J., dissenting). At the petitioner’s capital murder trial,
    Stoltzfus testified “in vivid detail” about the abduction of the
    murder victim. 
    Id. at 266
     (majority opinion). Stoltzfus was the
    only disinterested eyewitness who testified. The exculpatory
    materials were police notes of interviews with Stoltzfus and
    letters Stoltzfus wrote to the police that cast serious doubt on
    her testimony. The Court found all the elements of Brady met
    except for materiality. Although the Court recognized the
    importance of Stoltzfus’s eyewitness testimony, that was not
    the only evidence before the jury. Other eyewitnesses placed
    the petitioner at the shopping mall where the abduction
    occurred, and “considerable forensic and other physical
    evidence” linked the petitioner to the crime. 
    Id. at 293
    . The
    Court concluded that “[t]he record provides strong support for
    the conclusion that petitioner would have been convicted of
    capital murder and sentenced to death, even if Stoltzfus had
    been severely impeached.” 
    Id. at 294
    . Thus, the petitioner did
    not convince the Court that there was “a reasonable
    probability that the jury would have returned a different
    verdict if her testimony had been either severely impeached
    or excluded entirely.” 
    Id. at 296
    . The Pennsylvania Supreme
    Court’s reasoning in this case is not appreciably different
    from the reasoning in Strickler.
    The Majority’s remaining reason for concluding that the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court unreasonably applied the facts
    is that the Majority considered the same facts and reached a
    different conclusion. This is not a proper basis for granting
    habeas relief. There is a reasonable possibility that impeach-
    23
    ment of Howard might have produced a different result, but
    the Pennsylvania Supreme Court did not unreasonably apply
    the facts or law in concluding that Dennis did not establish a
    reasonable probability of a different result. See 
    id. at 291
    . I
    would not grant habeas relief on this claim.
    C
    Dennis’s final Brady claim concerns documents about
    the police investigation of a lead from William Frazier.
    Frazier, an inmate at the Montgomery County Correctional
    Facility, contacted police and informed them that he knew
    who shot Chedell Williams. He told a story about a three-way
    call he received in jail with his aunt and a friend named Tony
    Brown. During the call, Tony Brown admitted that he
    accidentally shot Williams while robbing her. Tony Brown
    told Frazier that he was accompanied by his friend Ricky
    Walker, who was Frazier’s cousin, and another man, “Skeet,”
    who drove the car.
    Despite Frazier’s being a jailhouse informant who
    obviously wanted to parlay information for something in
    return (even if only a day out of jail), the police investigated
    his tip. They took Frazier on a ride-along to Tony Brown’s
    house, Ricky Walker’s house, the pawnshop where Tony
    Brown allegedly sold Williams’s earrings, Skeet’s house, and
    Frazier’s girlfriend’s house. Police interviewed Frazier’s
    landlord and Walker. Walker told police that he never heard of
    anyone named Tony Brown or “Skeet.” He explained that he
    “can’t stand” Frazier, who racked up $1,000 in charges on a
    phone calling card Walker had lent to him. Despite this
    investigation, police found no trace of a Tony Brown. This is
    24
    not surprising. Frazier later admitted that he concocted the
    entire story.6
    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court rejected Dennis’s
    Brady claim about the Frazier lead documents because the
    documents were inadmissible hearsay. Commonwealth v.
    Dennis, 
    950 A.2d 945
    , 968 (Pa. 2008) (“Dennis III ”). This
    conclusion is not an unreasonable application of clearly
    established Supreme Court precedent.
    Authority is split about whether inadmissible evidence
    can be the basis for a Brady violation. Our court, along with
    the First, Second, Sixth, and Eleventh Circuit Courts of
    Appeals, has concluded that admissibility is not a prerequisite
    for a Brady claim. See, e.g., Johnson v. Folino, 
    705 F.3d 117
    ,
    130 (3d Cir. 2013) (“[I]nadmissible evidence may be material
    if it could have led to the discovery of admissible evidence.”).
    6. The Majority asserts that the Frazier “lead was not
    fruitless, it was simply not rigorously pursued.” Maj. Op.
    88. The police did pursue this lead, however, going so far
    as to take Frazier out of his jail cell and bring him with
    them on his tour of Philadelphia. The Majority questions
    why police did not interview more of the people involved
    in Frazier’s tale. Police can always do more investigative
    work, but they have limited resources. And simply put,
    this lead coming from a jailhouse snitch was a dead end.
    The police should not be faulted for deciding not to waste
    more time on what Frazier himself admitted was
    “bullshit.” Response to Pet. Rh’g 17 n.13.
    25
    The Fourth and Seventh Circuits have concluded otherwise.
    Jardine v. Dittmann, 
    658 F.3d 772
    , 777 (7th Cir. 2011)
    (“Logically, inadmissible evidence is immaterial under this
    rule.”); Hoke v. Netherland, 
    92 F.3d 1350
    , 1356 n.3 (4th Cir.
    1996) (“[T]hese statements may well have been inadmissible
    at trial … and therefore, as a matter of law, ‘immaterial’ for
    Brady purposes.”).
    The Majority recognizes the contrary decisions of the
    Fourth and Seventh Circuits and “respectfully conclude[s]
    that they have erred.” Maj. Op. 97 n.26. But in order to grant
    habeas relief, the Majority must conclude that these courts did
    more than err—the decisions must be so clearly wrong that
    they are objectively unreasonable. Does the Majority really
    believe that our fair-minded colleagues on the Fourth and
    Seventh Circuits are that wrong? As the Supreme Court has
    noted, the courts of appeals’ “diverging approaches to [a]
    question illustrate the possibility of fairminded disagree-
    ment.” White v. Woodall, 
    134 S. Ct. 1697
    , 1703 n.3 (2014).
    Circuit precedent cannot create or refine clearly established
    Supreme Court law, and lower federal courts “may not
    canvass circuit decisions to determine whether a particular
    rule of law is so widely accepted among the Federal Circuits
    that it would, if presented to [the Supreme] Court, be
    accepted as correct.” Marshall v. Rodgers, 
    133 S. Ct. 1446
    ,
    1451 (2013) (per curiam). Although “[m]ost federal courts
    have concluded that suppressed evidence may be material for
    Brady purposes even where it is not admissible,” Maj. Op. 95,
    that does not transform such a rule into clearly established
    Supreme Court precedent.
    26
    The Majority does not cite any direct holding of the
    Supreme Court establishing a rule that admissibility is
    irrelevant under Brady. The Majority instead relies on “the
    Supreme Court’s repeated consideration of impeachment
    material in Brady cases.” Maj. Op. 92. The Supreme Court’s
    consideration of impeachment material does not compel the
    broad conclusion that admissibility is irrelevant.
    Because reasonable judges could—and indeed do—
    disagree about whether Brady material must be admissible,
    the Pennsylvania Supreme Court did not unreasonably apply
    clearly established Supreme Court precedent when it found
    that the inadmissibility of the Frazier lead documents
    prevented Dennis’s Brady claim.7
    IV
    The Majority asserts that the Cason receipt, Pugh
    statement, and Frazier documents “effectively gutted the
    Commonwealth’s case against Dennis” and that the failure to
    turn over these documents denied Dennis a fair trial. Maj. Op.
    4. Not true. Dennis’s inability to obtain the Cason receipt
    before trial was, as Dennis himself argued, due to his trial
    counsel’s failure to conduct even a minimal investigation. The
    7. Because the Pennsylvania Supreme Court could
    reasonably have determined that the Cason receipt was
    not suppressed and reasonably determined that the Frazier
    documents were not subject to Brady, materiality was an
    issue with only the Pugh statement. Accordingly, there is
    no need to conduct a cumulative materiality analysis.
    27
    double hearsay Pugh statement was credibly refuted by
    Howard. Even if Howard were impeached, based on the
    eyewitness testimony of Bertha and Cameron, there was not a
    reasonable probability of a jury’s returning a different verdict.
    Frazier’s story was fabricated. It was not an unreasonable
    application of clearly established federal law to consider the
    inadmissibility of the Frazier documents. In granting habeas
    relief for each of these Brady claims, the Majority failed to
    correctly apply the deferential AEDPA standard. I respectfully
    dissent.
    28
    HARDIMAN, Circuit Judge, dissenting, joined by SMITH
    and FISHER, Circuit Judges.
    At the outset of its analysis of James Dennis’s Brady
    claims, the Majority notes that the Antiterrorism and
    Effective Death Penalty Act (AEDPA) “dictates” our review.
    Majority Op. 30. The opinion describes with precision
    AEDPA’s strictures. Federal courts are prohibited from
    granting habeas corpus relief unless the state-court
    adjudication (1) “resulted in a decision that was contrary to,
    or involved an unreasonable application of, clearly
    established Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court
    of the United States,” or (2) “resulted in a decision that was
    based on an unreasonable determination of the facts in light
    of the evidence presented in the State court proceeding.” 
    Id.
    (quoting 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)). These fetters on our review,
    the Majority notes, come close to “imposing a complete bar
    on federal-court relitigation of claims already rejected in
    state-court proceedings.” 
    Id. at 32
     (quoting Harrington v.
    Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 102 (2011)).
    It is one thing to recite these demanding limits; it is
    quite another to abide by them.1 And as Judge Fisher’s
    1
    The inability of federal courts to follow AEDPA has
    reached epidemic proportions. As I pointed out in 2012, since
    2000
    the Supreme Court has granted certiorari in
    ninety-four cases arising under AEDPA, forty-
    six of which involved questions of federal court
    deference to decisions of state courts. Thirty-
    four of those cases (approximately seventy-four
    percent) have been reversed because the court
    1
    of appeals failed to afford sufficient deference
    to the state court. Remarkably, twenty-two of
    those cases—almost fifty percent—were
    reversed without dissent.
    Garrus v. Sec’y of Pennsylvania Dep’t of Corr., 
    694 F.3d 394
    , 412–14 (3d Cir. 2012) (en banc) (Hardiman, J.,
    dissenting) (collecting cases).
    In the four short years since we decided Garrus, the
    errors have continued apace. By my count, of the nineteen
    cases arising under AEDPA in which the Supreme Court has
    granted certiorari, fourteen involved questions of federal
    court deference to state-court decisions. Thirteen of those
    cases were reversed—ten without dissent. See Kernan v.
    Hinojosa, 
    136 S. Ct. 1603
    , 1606 (2016) (per curiam)
    (reversing the Ninth Circuit’s treatment of a summary
    decision as a non-merits adjudication and noting that “the
    Ninth Circuit has already held that state-court denials of
    claims identical to [the petitioner’s] are not contrary to clearly
    established federal law”); Woods v. Etherton, 
    136 S. Ct. 1149
    ,
    1153 (2016) (unanimously reversing the Sixth Circuit because
    “a fairminded jurist—applying the deference due the state
    court under AEDPA—could certainly conclude that the court
    was not objectively unreasonable in deciding that appellate
    counsel was not incompetent under Strickland, when she
    determined that trial counsel was not incompetent under
    Strickland”); White v. Wheeler, 
    136 S. Ct. 456
    , 461–62
    (2015) (unanimously reversing the Sixth Circuit’s grant of
    habeas relief because it “did not properly apply the deference
    it was required to accord the state-court ruling”); Davis v.
    Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. 2187
    , 2208 (2015) (reversing the Ninth
    Circuit’s grant of the writ on the ground that fairminded
    2
    jurists could disagree as to whether a state court’s exclusion
    of a defendant’s attorney from part of a Batson hearing was
    harmless error); Woods v. Donald, 
    135 S. Ct. 1372
    , 1377
    (2015) (unanimously reversing the Sixth Circuit’s grant of
    habeas relief because the state court’s conclusion that the
    petitioner’s counsel was not per se ineffective “was not
    contrary to any clearly established holding” of the Court);
    Glebe v. Frost, 
    135 S. Ct. 429
    , 430 (2014) (unanimously
    reversing the Ninth Circuit’s conclusion that the state court
    “unreasonably applied clearly established federal law by
    failing to classify the trial court’s restriction of closing
    argument as structural error” because no Supreme Court
    precedent clearly established that such mistakes rank as
    structural error); Lopez v. Smith, 
    135 S. Ct. 1
    , 5 (2014)
    (unanimously reversing the Ninth Circuit where it “had no
    basis to reject the state court’s assessment that [the petitioner]
    was adequately apprised of the possibility of conviction on an
    aiding-and-abetting theory”); White v. Woodall, 
    134 S. Ct. 1697
    , 1702–04 (2014) (reversing the Sixth Circuit’s grant of
    habeas relief because the state court’s determination that the
    trial court’s jury instructions did not violate clearly
    established federal law was not “objectively unreasonable”);
    Burt v. Titlow, 
    134 S. Ct. 10
    , 17–18 (2013) (reversing without
    dissent the Sixth Circuit’s judgment that the state court’s
    conclusion that counsel’s performance was ineffective was
    unreasonable); Nevada v. Jackson, 
    133 S. Ct. 1990
    , 1994
    (2013) (per curiam) (unanimously reversing the Ninth
    Circuit’s grant of habeas relief where the state court
    reasonably applied federal law in determining that the
    petitioner had not been denied the right to present a complete
    defense when he was not allowed to present certain extrinsic
    evidence); Metrish v. Lancaster, 
    133 S. Ct. 1781
    , 1792 (2013)
    3
    dissenting opinion cogently explains, they quickly fall by the
    wayside once the Majority turns to actually reviewing
    Dennis’s claims. I join Judge Fisher’s opinion in full, but
    write separately to note that I would reverse the District
    Court’s judgment even if there were no “analytical gap[s]” in
    the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s decision rejecting
    Dennis’s Brady claims. Fisher Dissent 9–10. Consistent with
    the text of AEDPA and the precedents of the United States
    Supreme Court, I would hold that regardless of the
    thoroughness—or even the correctness—of the Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court’s stated reasoning, its judgment may not be
    upset so long as its decision did not contravene or
    unreasonably apply clearly established federal law and did
    not rest on an unreasonable determination of the facts.
    Whatever its flaws, the state court’s decision passes this test.
    I
    (unanimously reversing the Sixth Circuit’s grant of the writ
    where Supreme Court had “never found a due process
    violation in circumstances remotely resembling [the
    petitioner’s] case”); Johnson v. Williams, 
    133 S. Ct. 1088
    ,
    1097 (2013) (reversing without dissent the Ninth Circuit’s
    grant of relief based on the faulty conclusion that the state
    court had overlooked a meritorious Sixth Amendment claim);
    Ryan v. Gonzales, 
    133 S. Ct. 696
    , 700 (2013) (killing two
    birds with one stone in unanimously reversing both the Sixth
    Circuit’s and Ninth Circuit’s grants of relief where the courts
    wrongly concluded that federal law provides a right to
    incompetent prisoners to suspend their federal habeas
    proceedings); but see Brumfield v. Cain, 
    135 S. Ct. 2269
    ,
    2281 (2015) (finding the state court’s determination of the
    facts regarding a defendant with an IQ of 75 unreasonable).
    4
    It is a virtue of our judicial system that courts explain
    their decisions in writing. When an explanation is not good
    enough—whether due to a legal, logical, factual, or other
    defect—the decision it supports is often reversed. AEDPA
    displaces this traditional approach to error review by
    imposing strict constraints on the writ of habeas corpus
    designed to stay the hand of federal courts over all but the
    most glaring of state-court errors. We may issue the writ only
    “where there is no possibility fairminded jurists could
    disagree that the state court’s decision conflicts with” the
    precedents of the Supreme Court. Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 102 (2011). For a prisoner in state custody to obtain
    habeas relief from a federal court, he must demonstrate that
    the state court’s decision on the claim presented before the
    federal court “was so lacking in justification that there was an
    error well understood and comprehended in existing law
    beyond any possibility for fairminded disagreement.” 
    Id. at 103
    . “If this standard is difficult to meet,” the Supreme Court
    has explained, “that is because it was meant to be.” 
    Id. at 102
    .
    A
    By its terms, AEDPA applies to federal review of
    state-court decisions—not to the specific explanations that
    support them. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d). This distinction might
    seem technical, but the Supreme Court’s decision in
    Harrington v. Richter rendered it critical. There, the Court
    was faced with the question of AEDPA’s application to a
    state-court decision that dismissed in a one-sentence summary
    order a habeas petitioner’s ineffective assistance of counsel
    claim. 562 U.S. at 96–97. The Court was presented with two
    issues: whether the state-court decision constituted an
    “adjudicat[ion] on the merits” under AEDPA, and if so, how
    the Court should go about determining whether the decision
    5
    was unreasonable under AEDPA given that the opinion
    provided no reasoning. Id. at 97–102.
    The Court’s answer to the first question rested on a
    straightforward application of AEDPA. Since the text of
    AEDPA “refers only to a ‘decision’” resulting from an
    “adjudication”—making no mention of the need for a
    “statement of reasons”—the Court held that summary
    decisions unaccompanied by an explanation usually qualify as
    merits adjudications under AEDPA. Id. at 98. Hence, even
    where the state-court decision under federal review is devoid
    of reasoning, AEDPA’s deference requirements apply. It
    followed that “the habeas petitioner’s burden still must be met
    by showing there was no reasonable basis for the state court
    to deny relief.” Id. (emphasis added). This rule obtains
    regardless of “whether or not the state court reveals which of
    the elements in a multipart claim it found insufficient, for §
    2254(d) applies when a ‘claim,’ not a component of one, has
    been adjudicated.” Id.
    The Court’s answer to the second question in
    Richter—how to assess the reasonableness of a summary
    state-court decision under AEDPA—is particularly instructive
    here. The Court held that AEDPA requires federal courts to
    consider what explanations would nevertheless support the
    decision under federal law. As the Court explained, “a habeas
    court must determine what arguments or theories supported
    or, as here, could have supported, the state court’s decision;
    and then it must ask whether it is possible fairminded jurists
    could disagree that those arguments or theories are
    inconsistent with the holding in a prior decision of this
    Court.” Id. at 102 (emphasis added). At a minimum, then,
    when a state-court decision is unaccompanied by an
    6
    explanation, Richter requires us to ascertain whether it was
    reasonable.
    Circuit courts of appeals have divided over whether
    Richter extends beyond the precise circumstances of that
    case.2 Those courts that have chosen to cabin Richter can
    readily point to a limiting principle: single-sentence decisions
    versus multiple-sentence decisions. That distinction strikes
    me as unprincipled, however, because neither Richter’s logic
    nor AEDPA’s text limits the reason-supplying rule to cases in
    which the state-court “decision” is expressed in just one
    sentence. A decision is a decision, after all, and AEDPA does
    not distinguish among one-sentence decisions, one-paragraph
    decisions, or ten-page decisions; all of them are subject to the
    same deferential standard. Although the first portion of
    Richter focused on the fact that the state-court decision
    provided no explanation for the outcome, the reasonableness
    standard articulated in the rest of the opinion is tied to
    AEDPA’s general standard itself. “Where a state court’s
    decision is unaccompanied by an explanation, the habeas
    petitioner’s burden still must be met by showing there was no
    reasonable basis for the state court to deny relief.” Id.
    (emphasis added). In other words, regardless of how
    extensive or sparse the reasoning of a state-court opinion, the
    same AEDPA reasonableness test applies to all decisions on
    the merits.
    2
    See Noam Biale, Beyond A Reasonable
    Disagreement: Judging Habeas Corpus, 
    83 U. Cin. L. Rev. 1337
    , 1391 (2015) (“Since Richter . . . the circuits have split
    on whether the opinion’s ‘could have supported’ language for
    decisions unaccompanied by a reasoned opinion applies to
    decisions that do include a reasoned opinion.”).
    7
    This approach to AEDPA’s reasonableness standard
    finds support in Premo v. Moore. There, the petitioner
    claimed his counsel was ineffective for failing to move for
    suppression of the petitioner’s confession before advising him
    regarding a guilty plea. 
    562 U.S. 115
    , 119 (2011). The state
    court concluded that the petitioner had not established
    ineffective assistance of counsel under Strickland v.
    Washington, reasoning that a “motion to suppress would have
    been fruitless in light of the other admissible confession by
    [the petitioner], to which two witnesses could testify.” 
    Id. at 119
     (internal quotation marks omitted). Even though the state
    court “did not specify whether this was because there was no
    deficient performance under Strickland or because [the
    petitioner] suffered no Strickland prejudice, or both,” the
    Supreme Court stated that for a federal habeas court to
    properly eschew AEDPA deference, it “had to conclude that
    both findings would have involved an unreasonable
    application of clearly established federal law.” 
    Id. at 131
    (emphasis added).
    Although the state court’s reasoning was quite bare
    and did not explicitly engage the Strickland prongs, the Court
    held that its decision was entitled to AEDPA deference
    because reasons existed that would have supported the
    decision. Specifically, it highlighted that counsel had
    explained in state court that his decision to discuss plea
    bargaining before challenging the petitioner’s confession was
    based on his rationale that “suppression would serve little
    purpose in light of [the petitioner’s] other full and admissible
    confession.” 
    Id.
     at 123–24. “The state court,” the Supreme
    Court explained, “would not have been unreasonable to
    accept this explanation.” 
    Id. at 124
     (emphasis added). Indeed,
    the Court found it unnecessary to consider a second
    8
    justification that counsel had offered in the underlying
    proceedings because the first “confirms that his representation
    was adequate under Strickland, or at least that it would have
    been reasonable for the state court to reach that conclusion.”
    
    Id.
     (emphasis added). In short, presented with a state-court
    decision that was not a summary disposition but that provided
    only some vague reasoning for its decision, the Premo Court
    looked to the record to posit a rationale that would have
    supported that decision, finding it not to be an unreasonable
    application of federal law.3 We should approach Dennis’s
    case the same way.4
    3
    The Majority and Judge Jordan conclude that the
    Supreme Court’s decision in Lafler v. Cooper “implies a
    limit” to the reason-supplying rule announced in Richter.
    Jordan Concurrence 13. I do not read Lafler that way.
    Significantly, habeas relief in that case rested on the Supreme
    Court’s holding that Michigan Court of Appeals’ application
    of Strickland was “contrary to”—not an “unreasonable
    application of”—clearly established federal law. 
    132 S. Ct. 1376
    , 1390 (2012). Specifically, rather than applying the
    Strickland ineffective-assistance-of-counsel standard, the
    state court applied a (completely wrong) “knowing and
    voluntary” plea rejection rule. 
    Id.
     Because a decision is
    categorically “contrary to” clearly established federal law if
    the state court “applies a rule that contradicts the governing
    law,” Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 405 (2000), AEDPA
    deference was inappropriate, so de novo review applied.
    Lafler, 
    132 S. Ct. at 1390
    . Consequently, the case was not
    amenable to Richter’s “could have supported” analysis to
    determine whether the state court decision was an
    unreasonable application of federal law. For these reasons, I
    9
    disagree with the Majority and Judge Jordan that Lafler
    instructs federal courts to “take the state court’s decision as
    written” and apply Richter only in the small subset of cases in
    which the state court left so-called “gaps” to be filled. Jordan
    Concurrence 13.
    Nor do I read Wetzel v. Lambert to imply any limit on
    Richter. Although the opinion in that case did not include
    Richter’s “theories [that] . . . could have supported” language
    in its recitation of AEDPA’s general standard, see 
    132 S. Ct. 1195
    , 1198 (2012), the Court did not reject that approach by
    implication. Rather, in Wetzel the reasons for upholding the
    state court’s decision under AEDPA were expressed by the
    state court. The petitioner claimed the prosecution violated
    Brady by suppressing a police activity sheet consisting of a
    photo display marked with written notations suggesting that
    “someone other than or in addition to” the petitioner had
    committed the crime. 
    Id.
     at 1196–97. We granted habeas
    relief, but the Supreme Court vacated and remanded,
    explaining that we had “overlooked the determination of the
    state courts that the notations were . . . ‘not exculpatory or
    impeaching’ but instead ‘entirely ambiguous.’” 
    Id. at 1198
    .
    The Court criticized us for “focus[ing] solely on the [state
    court’s] alternative ground that any impeachment value that
    might have been obtained from the notations would have been
    cumulative.” 
    Id.
     The problem was that “[i]f the conclusion in
    the state courts about the content of the document was
    reasonable—not necessarily correct, but reasonable—
    whatever those courts had to say about cumulative
    impeachment evidence would be beside the point.” 
    Id.
     Hence,
    by failing to recognize—as the state courts did—the
    “‘ambiguous’ nature of the notations” and the “‘speculat[ive]’
    nature of [the petitioner’s] reading of them,” we ran afoul of
    10
    B
    AEDPA. 
    Id.
     Far from implying a limitation on Richter,
    Wetzel merely requires federal habeas courts to review state
    court opinions in search of a reasonable reading that would
    support the decision under federal law.
    4
    Some courts have begun to recognize Richter’s true
    reach. See, e.g, Holland v. Rivard, 
    800 F.3d 224
    , 235 (6th Cir.
    2015) (concluding that although “a state court decision
    unaccompanied by any explanation differs from a state court
    decision based on erroneous reasoning . . . Richter suggests
    that this is not a meaningful distinction” and that AEDPA
    requires a habeas petitioner to show that there was “no
    reasonable basis for the state court to deny relief . . . whether
    or not the state court reveals [its reasoning]”); Trottie v.
    Stephens, 
    720 F.3d 231
    , 240–41 (5th Cir. 2013) (“We review
    only the ultimate legal determination by the state court—not
    every link in its reasoning.”); Brady v. Pfister, 
    711 F.3d 818
    ,
    827 (7th Cir. 2013) (Wood, J.) (“[I]t is clear that a bad reason
    does not necessarily mean that the ultimate result was an
    unreasonable application of established doctrine. . . . If a state
    court’s rationale does not pass muster . . . for Section
    2254(d)(1) cases, the only consequence is that further inquiry
    is necessary.”); Mann v. Ryan, 
    774 F.3d 1203
    , 1224–25 (9th
    Cir. 2014) (Kozinski, J., concurring and dissenting) (“I have
    misgivings about whether, in light of the Supreme Court’s
    decision in Richter, we are still entitled to reverse a state
    court’s reasonable decision based on what we consider to be
    its incorrect reasoning. . . . After Richter, it seems clear that
    we should assess the reasonableness of a state court’s
    decision, not its reasoning.”).
    11
    My understanding of Richter is supported by notions
    of consistency and coherence as well. If we were to limit
    Richter to cases involving one-sentence decisions, the
    outcome of federal review would turn on the state court’s
    opinion-writing technique. Consider a federal court faced
    with a state-court decision that rejected a petitioner’s claim
    that his conviction was invalid because it stemmed from an
    illegal arrest. Assume the record was unclear with respect to
    whether the arresting officer had probable cause, but that
    fairminded jurists could disagree as to whether a Supreme
    Court precedent demanded the conclusion that there was no
    probable cause. If the state court rejected the petitioner’s
    claim via summary disposition, Richter requires the
    reviewing federal court to infer the supportive rationale.
    Because the record would arguably support probable cause
    for the arrest, the conviction would be affirmed. But what if
    the very same claim had been rejected in a partially reasoned
    state-court opinion with problematic gaps in the logic from
    which adverse inferences could be drawn or in an opinion that
    gave incorrect reasons to justify the decision (say, by stating
    that the arrest was valid because there was “reasonable
    suspicion”)? Absurdly, appellate courts that circumscribe
    Richter in the way the Majority has here would require the
    reviewing federal court to ignore the supportive rationale on
    de novo review (where a weak case for probable cause
    wouldn’t be enough) and grant relief.
    The asymmetry illustrated by my hypothetical makes a
    mess of the scheme established by AEDPA. How could a
    state-court decision be “reasonable” under AEDPA where the
    state court gives no reasons to explain itself but where we can
    think of one, yet be “unreasonable” under AEDPA where—
    although the very same good reason to support the decision
    12
    exists—the decision is supported by undeveloped or incorrect
    reasons?5 See Mann, 774 F.3d at 1224–25 (Kozinski, J.,
    concurring and dissenting) (“A habeas petitioner is not
    entitled to any reasoning at all, so reversing a state court’s
    reasonable decision on the grounds of incorrect reasoning
    risks treating defendants inconsistently: Those who are given
    incorrect reasoning get relief while those who aren’t given
    any reasoning do not.”). To make AEDPA reasonableness
    turn on a state court’s drafting decision is inconsistent with
    AEDPA’s directive that federal courts review the
    reasonableness of decisions, not opinions. And because it
    makes AEDPA deference inversely proportional to the
    amount of information the state court provides, it creates a
    perverse incentive for state courts to earn the deference of
    federal courts by saying less.6
    5
    Such arbitrariness is all the more perplexing in light
    of the fact that AEDPA “does not require citation of
    [Supreme Court] cases—indeed, it does not even require
    awareness of [Supreme Court] cases.” Early v. Packer, 
    537 U.S. 3
    , 8 (2002).
    6
    See Hodges v. Colson, 
    727 F.3d 517
    , 537 n.5 (6th
    Cir. 2013) (“[If Richter is limited to summary dispositions],
    the more information the state court provides, the less
    deference we grant it. This is contrary not only to the
    language of the statute, which speaks of ‘claims’ not
    components of claims, but also contrary to the spirit of §
    2254(d), which is designed to give more deference to a state
    court judgment on the merits.”).
    13
    II
    To sum up, I would hold that when gaps or errors
    afflict a state court’s habeas adjudication, federal courts may
    not reverse unless the decision itself is unreasonable. In
    Dennis’s case, this principle is most pertinent to the Cason
    receipt. As Judge Fisher explains, the reasons proffered by the
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court for rejecting Dennis’s Brady
    claims regarding the Howard police activity report and the
    Frazier documents are themselves sufficient to pass AEDPA
    review without any inference from us. The Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court’s analysis of the Cason receipt, on the other
    hand, is incomplete and might ungenerously be read as
    incorrect. For the reasons explained by Judge Fisher,
    however, a rationale consistent with Supreme Court precedent
    supports the decision, and so it must stand. I would simply
    add that AEDPA would require us to supply this rationale
    even if the state court’s treatment of the Cason receipt were in
    fact wrong. After all, “[a] state court could write that it
    rejected a defendant’s claim because Tarot cards dictated that
    result, but its decision might nonetheless be a sound one.”
    Brady, 711 F.3d at 827 (Wood, J.).
    In my view, AEDPA requires federal courts to take the
    following approach to habeas review. Where the state court
    denies relief summarily, Richter requires federal courts to
    consider what arguments or theories could have supported the
    state court’s decision such that fairminded jurists could
    disagree whether those arguments or theories are inconsistent
    with the holding in a prior decision of the Supreme Court.
    Where the state court denies relief but addresses only certain
    prongs of a test or components of a claim, the reviewing
    federal court should likewise consider what reasons regarding
    an unaddressed prong or component could have supported the
    14
    decision. And where, as here, the state court denies relief
    through vague, ambiguous, incomplete, or even incorrect
    reasoning, AEDPA still requires the reviewing federal court
    to consider what theories could have supported the decision
    under AEDPA.7
    7
    I disagree with Judge Jordan that my understanding
    of Richter conflicts with Ylst v. Nunnemaker and Wiggins v.
    Smith. Both of those cases involved the threshold question of
    whether the petitioners’ claim had been decided on the merits.
    The Ylst Court was faced with an “unexplained” State
    supreme court order denying the petitioner’s habeas petition,
    wherein it was unclear whether the court rested its denial on a
    procedural default (the basis of the lower court’s holding) or
    on the merits of his Miranda claim. 
    501 U.S. 797
    , 801 (1991).
    The Supreme Court reversed the Ninth Circuit’s conclusion
    that the decision was on the merits, explaining that, “where,
    as here, the last reasoned opinion on the claim explicitly
    imposes a procedural default, we will presume that a later
    decision rejecting the claim did not silently disregard that bar
    and consider the merits.” 
    Id. at 803
    . To the extent that Ylst
    requires us to “look through” unreasoned state court opinions
    to the last reasoned opinion, I have no quarrel with Judge
    Jordan that we ought to first consider whether the state
    court’s stated explanation is reasonable before deigning to
    supply reasons of our own under Richter. As for Wiggins, we
    have explained that the reason the Court declined to apply
    deference with respect to the prejudice prong of the
    petitioner’s Strickland claim was that the state courts had not
    decided the Strickland prejudice issue “on the merits.”
    Palmer v. Hendricks, 
    592 F.3d 386
    , 400 (3d Cir. 2010); see
    also Wiggins, 
    539 U.S. 510
    , 534 (2003) (“[O]ur review is not
    15
    By ignoring these principles, the Majority empowers
    itself to reweigh evidence that is decades old. Like the
    District Court, the Majority takes a fresh look at the evidence
    and concludes, contrary to the consistent testimony of three
    eyewitnesses, that the alleged Brady violations “effectively
    gutted the Commonwealth’s case against Dennis.” Majority
    Op. 4 (emphasis added). AEDPA proscribes such searching
    review. Because fairminded jurists could disagree as to
    whether the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s decision was
    inconsistent with federal law, we owe it our deference. I
    respectfully dissent from the Majority’s decision to do
    otherwise.
    circumscribed by a state court conclusion with respect to
    prejudice, as neither of the state courts below reached this
    prong of the Strickland analysis.”). Because AEDPA
    deference only extends to “any claim that was adjudicated on
    the merits in State court proceedings,” 
    28 U.S.C.A. § 2254
    (d),
    the determination whether the state-court decision under
    federal review was made on the merits is prior to the
    consideration, vel non, of whether adequate reasons exist in
    support of that decision. I do nevertheless agree with Judge
    Jordan that Wiggins is in some tension with my approach
    because it engaged in de novo review of the second prong of
    Strickland even though the state court denied relief but
    addressed only the first prong. However, Richter—decided
    after Wiggins—speaks clearly on this point. “[A] habeas
    petitioner’s burden still must be met by showing there was no
    reasonable basis for the state court to deny relief . . . . whether
    or not the state court reveals which of the elements in a
    multipart claim it found insufficient, for § 2254(d) applies
    when a ‘claim,’ not a component of one, has been
    adjudicated.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 98
    .
    16
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 13-9003

Citation Numbers: 834 F.3d 263, 2016 U.S. App. LEXIS 15434, 2016 WL 4440925

Judges: McKee, Ambro, Fuentes, Smith, Fisher, Chagares, Jordan, Hardiman, Greenaway, Vanaskie, Shwartz, Krause, Rendell

Filed Date: 8/23/2016

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 11/5/2024

Authorities (81)

Manson v. Brathwaite , 97 S. Ct. 2243 ( 1977 )

Commonwealth v. Lambert , 584 Pa. 461 ( 2005 )

Moore v. Illinois , 92 S. Ct. 2562 ( 1972 )

Harrington v. Richter , 131 S. Ct. 770 ( 2011 )

Premo v. Moore , 131 S. Ct. 733 ( 2011 )

Burt v. Titlow , 134 S. Ct. 10 ( 2013 )

Ramon Ramos Lugo v. Miguel Gimenez Munoz, Etc. , 682 F.2d 7 ( 1982 )

Randy Boss and Revell Boss v. Guy Pierce and Mark A. Pierson , 263 F.3d 734 ( 2001 )

Neil v. Biggers , 93 S. Ct. 375 ( 1972 )

Wetzel v. Lambert , 132 S. Ct. 1195 ( 2012 )

Wood v. Bartholomew , 116 S. Ct. 7 ( 1995 )

Cullen v. Pinholster , 131 S. Ct. 1388 ( 2011 )

White v. Woodall , 134 S. Ct. 1697 ( 2014 )

Brumfield v. Cain , 135 S. Ct. 2269 ( 2015 )

In Re Sealed Case No. 99-3096(brady Obligations) , 185 F.3d 887 ( 1999 )

Kyles v. Whitley , 115 S. Ct. 1555 ( 1995 )

Strickler v. Greene , 119 S. Ct. 1936 ( 1999 )

Wiggins v. Smith, Warden , 123 S. Ct. 2527 ( 2003 )

Panetti v. Quarterman , 127 S. Ct. 2842 ( 2007 )

Marshall v. Rodgers , 133 S. Ct. 1446 ( 2013 )

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