Castano v. American Tobacco Co ( 1996 )


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  •                 IN THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE FIFTH CIRCUIT
    _______________
    No. 95-30725
    _______________
    DIANNE CASTANO, et al.,
    Plaintiffs-Appellees,
    VERSUS
    THE AMERICAN TOBACCO COMPANY, et al.,
    Defendants-Appellants.
    _________________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Eastern District of Louisiana
    _________________________
    May 23, 1996
    Before SMITH, DUHÉ, and DeMOSS, Circuit Judges.
    JERRY E. SMITH, Circuit Judge:
    In what may be the largest class action ever attempted in
    federal court, the district court in this case embarked “on a road
    certainly less traveled, if ever taken at all,” Castano v. American
    Tobacco Co., 
    160 F.R.D. 544
    , 560 (E.D. La. 1995) (citing EDWARD C.
    LATHAM, THE POETRY   OF   ROBERT FROST, “THE ROAD NOT TAKEN” 105 (1969)), and
    entered a class certification order.           The court defined the class
    as:
    (a) All nicotine-dependent persons in the United States
    . . . who have purchased and smoked cigarettes manufac-
    1
    tured by the defendants;
    (b) the estates, representatives, and administrators of
    these nicotine-dependent cigarette smokers; and
    (c) the spouses, children, relatives and “significant
    others” of these nicotine-dependent cigarette smokers as
    their heirs or survivors.
    
    Id. at 560-61
    .          The plaintiffs limit the claims to years since
    1943.1
    This matter comes before us on interlocutory appeal, under
    
    28 U.S.C. § 1292
    (b), of the class certification order.                          Concluding
    that the district court abused its discretion in certifying the
    class, we reverse.
    I.
    A.    The Class Complaint
    The     plaintiffs2      filed     this     class     complaint       against      the
    defendant tobacco companies3 and the Tobacco Institute, Inc.,
    1
    The court defined “nicotine-dependent” as:
    (a) All cigarette smokers who have been diagnosed by a medical
    practitioner as nicotine-dependent; and/or
    (b) All regular cigarette smokers who were or have been advised by
    a medical practitioner that smoking has had or will have adverse
    health consequences who thereafter do not or have not quit smoking.
    
    Id. at 561
    . The definition is based upon the criteria for “dependence” set forth
    in AMERICAN PSYCHIATRIC ASSOCIATION, DIAGNOSTIC AND STATISTICAL MANUAL OF MENTAL DISORDERS (4th
    ed.).
    2
    The original class plaintiffs were Ernest R. Perry, Sr., T. George
    Solomon, Jr., and Dianne A. Castano. The class representatives include Perry,
    Gloria Scott, and Deania Jackson, all current cigarette smokers. Dianne Castano
    is a class representative on behalf of her deceased husband, Peter Castano.
    3
    The defendant tobacco companies are The American Tobacco Company, Inc.,
    R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company, Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corporation, Phillip
    Morris, Inc., Liggett & Meyers, Inc., Lorillard Tobacco Company, Inc., and United
    (continued...)
    2
    seeking compensation solely for the injury of nicotine addiction.
    The gravamen of their complaint is the novel and wholly untested
    theory that the defendants fraudulently failed to inform consumers
    that nicotine is addictive and manipulated the level of nicotine in
    cigarettes to sustain their addictive nature.             The class complaint
    alleges nine      causes    of   action:    fraud   and    deceit,   negligent
    misrepresentation, intentional infliction of emotional distress,
    negligence      and   negligent    infliction     of   emotional     distress,
    violation of state consumer protection statutes, breach of express
    warranty, breach of implied warranty, strict product liability, and
    redhibition pursuant to the Louisiana Civil Code.
    The plaintiffs seek compensatory4 and punitive damages5 and
    attorneys’ fees.6          In addition, the plaintiffs seek equitable
    relief for fraud and deceit, negligent misrepresentation, violation
    of consumer protection statutes, and breach of express and implied
    warranty.       The equitable remedies include a declaration that
    defendants are financially responsible for notifying all class
    members of nicotine’s addictive nature, a declaration that the
    (...continued)
    States Tobacco Company. Prior to oral argument, Liggett & Meyers, Inc., filed
    in this court a motion conditionally to dismiss, without prejudice, its appeal
    because of a pending settlement with the plaintiffs. We have declined to enter
    the requested dismissal.
    4
    The plaintiffs seek compensatory damages for fraud and deceit, negligent
    misrepresentation, intentional infliction of emotional distress, breach of
    express and implied warranty, strict products liability, and redhibition.
    5
    The plaintiffs seek punitive damages for fraud and deceit, intentional
    infliction of emotional distress, negligence, and negligent infliction of
    emotional distress.
    6
    The plaintiffs seek attorneys’ fees for violations of consumer protection
    statutes and redhibition.
    3
    defendants manipulated nicotine levels with the intent to sustain
    the addiction of plaintiffs and the class members, an order that
    the defendants disgorge any profits made from the sale of ciga-
    rettes, restitution for sums paid for cigarettes, and the estab-
    lishment of a medical monitoring fund.
    The plaintiffs initially defined the class as “all nicotine
    dependent persons in the United States,” including current, former
    and    deceased    smokers    since   1943.        Plaintiffs    conceded   that
    addiction would have to be proven by each class member; the
    defendants    argued   that      proving   class    membership    will   require
    individual mini-trials to determine whether addiction actually
    exists.
    In response to the district court’s inquiry, the plaintiffs
    proposed a four-phase trial plan.7             In phase 1, a jury would
    determine common issues of “core liability.”             Phase 1 issues would
    include8   (1) issues of law and fact relating to defendants’ course
    of    conduct,    fraud,   and   negligence   liability     (including      duty,
    standard of care, misrepresentation and concealment, knowledge,
    intent); (2) issues of law and fact relating to defendants’ alleged
    conspiracy and concert of action; (3) issues of fact relating to
    the    addictive    nature/dependency       creating    characteristics       and
    properties of nicotine; (4) issues of fact relating to nicotine
    7
    The district court did not adopt the plaintiffs’ trial plan, but its
    order certifying the class incorporates many elements of it.
    8
    For purposes of clarity, those issues that the district court did not
    certify as common have been left out of this summary of the plaintiffs’ trial
    plan.
    4
    cigarettes as defective products; (5) issues of fact relating to
    whether defendants’ wrongful conduct was intentional, reckless or
    negligent; (6) identifying which defendants specifically targeted
    their advertising and promotional efforts to particular groups
    (e.g. youths, minorities, etc.); (7) availability of a presumption
    of reliance; (8) whether defendants’ misrepresentations/suppression
    of   fact    and/or    of   addictive       properties       of   nicotine     preclude
    availability     of    a    “personal      choice”     defense;      (9)    defendants’
    liability for actual damages, and the categories of such damages;
    (10) defendants’ liability for emotional distress damages; and
    (11) defendants’ liability for punitive damages.
    Phase 1 would be followed by notice of the trial verdict and
    claim forms to class members.              In phase 2, the jury would determine
    compensatory damages in sample plaintiff cases.                           The jury then
    would    establish     a    ratio    of    punitive        damages   to    compensatory
    damages, which ratio thereafter would apply to each class member.
    Phase 3 would entail a complicated procedure to determine
    compensatory damages for individual class members.                      The trial plan
    envisions     determination         of    absent    class    members’      compensatory
    economic and emotional distress damages on the basis of claim
    forms,      “subject   to    verification          techniques     and     assertion    of
    defendants’     affirmative         defenses       under    grouping,      sampling,   or
    representative procedures to be determined by the Court.”
    The trial plan left open how jury trials on class members’
    personal injury/wrongful death claims would be handled, but the
    trial plan discussed the possibility of bifurcation.                        In phase 4,
    5
    the court would apply the punitive damage ratio based on individual
    damage awards and would conduct a review of the reasonableness of
    the award.
    B.    The Class Certification Order
    Following extensive briefing, the district court granted, in
    part, plaintiffs’ motion for class certification, concluding that
    the prerequisites of FED. R. CIV. P. 23(a) had been met.9               The court
    rejected certification, under FED. R. CIV. P. 23(b)(2), of the
    plaintiffs’ claim for equitable relief, including the claim for
    medical monitoring.        160 F.R.D. at 552.     Appellees have not cross-
    appealed that portion of the order.
    The court did grant the plaintiffs’ motion to certify the
    class under FED. R. CIV. P. 23(b)(3),10 organizing the class action
    issues into four categories: (1) core liability; (2) injury-in-
    fact,     proximate      cause,   reliance     and   affirmative        defenses;
    9
    Rule 23(a) states:
    One or more members of a class may sue or be sued
    as representative parties on behalf of all only if
    (1) the class is so numerous that joinder of all members
    is impracticable, (2) there are questions of law or fact
    common to the class, (3) the claims or defenses of the
    representative parties are typical of the claims or
    defenses of the class, and (4) the representative
    parties will fairly and adequately protect the interests
    of the class.
    10
    Rule 23(b)(3) states, in pertinent part, that a class action may be
    maintained if
    the court finds that the questions of law or fact common
    to the members of the class predominate over any
    questions affecting only individual members, and that a
    class action is superior to other available methods for
    the fair and efficient adjudication of the controversy.
    6
    (3) compensatory damages; and (4) punitive damages. Id. at 553-58.
    It then analyzed each category to determine whether it met the
    predominance and superiority requirements of rule 23(b)(3).             Using
    its power to sever issues for certification under FED. R. CIV.
    P. 23(c)(4), the court certified the class on core liability and
    punitive damages, and certified the class conditionally pursuant to
    FED. R. CIV. P. 23(c)(1).
    1. Core Liability Issues
    The court defined core liability issues as “common factual
    issues [of] whether defendants knew cigarette smoking was addic-
    tive, failed to inform cigarette smokers of such, and took actions
    to addict cigarette smokers.         Common legal issues include fraud,
    negligence,   breach   of   warranty      (express    or   implied),   strict
    liability,    and   violation   of     consumer      protection   statutes.”
    160 F.R.D. at 553.
    The court found that the predominance requirement of rule
    23(b)(3) was satisfied for the core liability issues.             Without any
    specific analysis regarding the multitude of issues that make up
    “core liability,” the court found that under Jenkins v. Raymark
    Indus., 
    782 F.2d 468
     (5th Cir. 1986), common issues predominate
    because resolution of core liability issues would significantly
    advance the individual cases.        The court did not discuss why “core
    liability” issues would be a significant, rather than just common,
    part of each individual trial, nor why the individual issues in the
    remaining categories did not predominate over the common “core
    7
    liability” issues.
    The only specific analysis on predominance analysis was on the
    plaintiffs’ fraud claim.        The court determined that it would be
    premature to hold that individual reliance issues predominate over
    common issues.     Relying on Eisen v. Carlisle & Jacquelin, 
    417 U.S. 156
     (1974), the court stated that it could not inquire into the
    merits of the plaintiffs’ claim to determine whether reliance would
    be an issue in individual trials.          160 F.R.D. at 554.       Moreover,
    the court recognized the possibility that under state law, reliance
    can be inferred when a fraud claim is based on an omission.
    Accordingly, the court was convinced that it could certify the
    class and defer the consideration of how reliance would affect
    predominance.
    The court also deferred substantial consideration of how
    variations in state law would affect predominance.            Relying on two
    district court opinions,11 the court concluded that issues of fraud,
    breach   of   warranty,     negligence,   intentional    tort,   and   strict
    liability do not vary so much from state to state as to cause
    individual    issues   to   predominate.      The   court   noted   that   any
    determination of how state law variations affect predominance was
    premature, as the court had yet to make a choice of law determina-
    tion.    As for the consumer protection claims, the court also
    11
    The court cited In re Asbestos Sch. Litig., 
    104 F.R.D. 422
    , 434 (E.D.
    Pa. 1984) (discussing the similarity of negligence and strict liability in U.S.
    jurisdictions), aff’d in part and reversed in part sub nom. School Dist. of
    Lancaster v. Lake Asbestos, Ltd. (In re Sch. Asbestos Litig.) (“School
    Asbestos”), 
    789 F.2d 996
    , 1010 (3d Cir.), cert. denied, 
    479 U.S. 852
    , and cert.
    denied, 
    479 U.S. 915
     (1986), and In re Cordis Cardiac Pacemaker Prod. Liability
    Litig., No. C-3-90-374 (S.D. Ohio Dec. 23, 1992) (unpublished) (discussing
    similarities among negligence, strict liability, and fraud).
    8
    deferred analysis of state law variations, because “there has been
    no showing that the consumer protection statutes differ so much as
    to make individual issues predominate.”      
    Id.
    The court also concluded that a class action is superior to
    other methods for adjudication of the core liability issues.
    Relying heavily on Jenkins, the court noted that having this common
    issue litigated in a class action was superior to repeated trials
    of the same evidence.     Recognizing serious problems with manage-
    ability, it determined that such problems were outweighed by “the
    specter of   thousands,   if   not   millions,   of   similar   trials    of
    liability proceeding in thousands of courtrooms around the nation.”
    
    Id. at 555-56
    .
    2. Injury-in-fact, Proximate Cause, Reliance,
    Affirmative Defenses, and Compensatory Damages
    Using the same methodology as it did for the core liability
    issues, the district court refused to certify the issues of injury-
    in-fact, proximate   cause,    reliance,   affirmative    defenses,      and
    compensatory damages, concluding that the “issues are so overwhelm-
    ingly replete with individual circumstances that they quickly
    outweigh predominance and superiority.” 
    Id. at 556
    . Specifically,
    the court found that whether a person suffered emotional injury
    from addiction, whether his addiction was caused by the defendants’
    actions, whether he relied on the defendants’ misrepresentations,
    and whether affirmative defenses unique to each class member
    precluded recovery were all individual issues.        As to compensatory
    damages and the claim for medical monitoring, the court concluded
    9
    that such claims were so intertwined with proximate cause and
    affirmative defenses that class certification would not materially
    advance the individual cases.
    3. Punitive Damages
    In certifying punitive damages for class treatment, the court
    adopted the plaintiffs’ trial plan for punitive damages: The class
    jury would develop a ratio of punitive damages to actual damages,
    and the court would apply that ratio in individual cases.                 As it
    did with the core liability issues, the court determined that
    variations in state law, including differing burdens of proof, did
    not preclude certification.            Rather than conduct an independent
    review of predominance or superiority, the court relied on Jenkins
    and on Watson v. Shell Oil Co., 
    979 F.2d 1014
     (5th Cir. 1992),
    vacated for rehearing en banc, 
    990 F.2d 805
     (5th Cir. 1993), appeal
    dismissed,    
    53 F.3d 663
       (5th    Cir.   1994),   for   support   of   its
    certification order.12
    II.
    A district court must conduct a rigorous analysis of the
    rule 23 prerequisites before certifying a class.              General Tel. Co.
    v. Falcon, 
    457 U.S. 147
    , 161 (1982); Applewhite v. Reichold Chems.,
    12
    The panel opinion in Watson has no precedential weight in this circuit.
    While the case was awaiting rehearing en banc, it settled. According to the
    Internal Operating Procedure accompanying 5TH CIR. R. 35, “the effect of granting
    a rehearing en banc is to vacate the previous opinion and judgment of the Court
    and to stay the mandate.” See de Aguilar v. Boeing Co., 
    47 F.3d 1404
    , 1411 (5th
    Cir.), cert. denied, 
    116 S. Ct. 180
     (1995).
    10
    
    67 F.3d 571
    , 573 (5th Cir. 1995).             The decision to certify is
    within the broad discretion of the court, but that discretion must
    be exercised within the framework of rule 23.                Gulf Oil Co. v.
    Bernard, 
    452 U.S. 89
    , 100 (1981).          The party seeking certification
    bears the burden of proof.       Horton v. Goose Creek Ind. Sch. Dist.,
    
    690 F.2d 470
    , 486 (5th Cir. 1982), cert. denied, 
    463 U.S. 1207
    (1983); In re American Medical Sys., 
    75 F.3d 1069
    , 1086 (6th Cir.
    1996) (concluding that district court reversed the proper burden of
    proof by asking defendants to show cause why the court should not
    certify the class).
    The district court erred in its analysis in two distinct ways.
    First, it failed to consider how variations in state law affect
    predominance and superiority. Second, its predominance inquiry did
    not include consideration of how a trial on the merits would be
    conducted.
    Each of these defects mandates reversal.              Moreover, at this
    time, while the tort is immature, the class complaint must be
    dismissed, as class certification cannot be found to be a superior
    method of adjudication .13
    A. Variations in State Law
    Although    rule   23(c)(1)    requires    that   a   class   should   be
    13
    The defendants raise a number of additional challenges to the district
    court’s order, including claims that individual issues predominate, that the use
    of a punitive damage ratio violates due process, that a multi-state class action
    inevitably will violate Erie R.R. v. Tompkins, 
    304 U.S. 64
     (1938), and that
    bifurcation of core liability issues in a class action violates article III of
    the Constitution. Given our conclusion that this matter cannot proceed as a
    class action in any event, we find it unnecessary to address those issues.
    11
    certified “as soon as practicable” and allows a court to certify a
    conditional class, it does not follow that the rule’s requirements
    are lessened when the class is conditional.    As a sister circuit
    explained:
    Conditional certification is not a means whereby the
    District Court can avoid deciding whether, at that time,
    the requirements of the Rule have been substantially met.
    The purpose of conditional certification is to preserve
    the Court’s power to revoke certification in those cases
    wherein the magnitude or complexity of the litigation may
    eventually reveal problems not theretofore apparent. But
    in this case the District Court seemed to brush aside one
    of the requirements of Rule 23(b)(3) by stating that at
    this time “analysis of the individual versus common
    questions would be for the Court to act as a seer.”
    However difficult it may have been for the District Court
    to decide whether common questions predominate over
    individual questions, it should not have sidestepped this
    preliminary requirement of the Rule by merely stating
    that the problem of individual questions “lies far beyond
    the horizon in the realm of speculation.”
    In re Hotel Tel. Charges, 
    500 F.2d 86
    , 90 (9th Cir. 1974).
    In a multi-state class action, variations in state law may
    swamp any common issues and defeat predominance.   See   Georgine v.
    Amchem Prods., 
    1996 WL 242442
    , at *2 (3d Cir. May 10, 1996)
    (decertifying class because legal and factual differences in the
    plaintiffs’ claims “when exponentially magnified by choice of law
    considerations, eclipse any common issues in this case.”); American
    Medical Sys.,   
    75 F.3d at 1085
     (granting mandamus in a multi-state
    products liability action, in part because “[t]he district court
    . . . failed to consider how the law of negligence differs from
    jurisdiction to jurisdiction”).
    Accordingly, a district court must consider how variations in
    state law affect predominance and superiority. Walsh v. Ford Motor
    12
    Co., 
    807 F.2d 1000
     (D.C. Cir. 1986) (Ruth Bader Ginsburg, J.),
    cert. denied, 
    482 U.S. 915
     (1987).       The Walsh court rejected the
    notion that a district court may defer considering variations in
    state law:
    Appellees see the “which law” matter as academic. They
    say no variations in state warranty laws relevant to this
    case exist. A court cannot accept such an assertion “on
    faith.” Appellees, as class action proponents, must show
    that it is accurate. We have made no inquiry of our own
    on this score and, for the current purpose, simply note
    the general unstartling statement made in a leading
    treatise: “The Uniform Commercial Code is not uniform.”
    Id. at 1016-17 (footnotes omitted).
    A district court’s duty to determine whether the plaintiff has
    borne its burden on class certification requires that a court
    consider variations in state law when a class action involves
    multiple jurisdictions. “In order to make the findings required to
    certify a class action under Rule 23(b)(3) . . . one must initially
    identify the substantive law issues which will control the outcome
    of the litigation.”    Alabama v. Blue Bird Body Co., 
    573 F.2d 309
    ,
    316 (5th Cir. 1978).
    A requirement that a court know which law will apply before
    making a predominance determination is especially important when
    there may be differences in state law.         See In re Rhone-Poulenc
    Rorer, Inc. (“Rhone-Poulenc”), 
    51 F.3d 1293
    , 1299-1302 (7th Cir.)
    (mandamus)   (comparing   differing    state   pattern   instructions   on
    negligence and differing formulations of the meaning of negli-
    gence), cert. denied, 
    116 S. Ct. 184
     (1995); In re “Agent Orange”
    Prod. Liability Litig., 
    818 F.2d 145
    , 165 (2d Cir. 1986) (noting
    possibility of differences in state products liability law), cert.
    13
    denied, 
    484 U.S. 1004
     (1988).        Given the plaintiffs’ burden, a
    court cannot rely on assurances of counsel that any problems with
    predominance or superiority can be overcome.          Windham v. American
    Brands, Inc., 
    565 F.2d 59
    , 70 (4th Cir. 1977), cert. denied, 
    435 U.S. 968
     (1978).
    The able opinion in School Asbestos demonstrates what is
    required from a district court when variations in state law exist.
    There, the court affirmed class certification, despite variations
    in state law, because:
    To meet the problem of diversity in applicable state law,
    class plaintiffs have undertaken an extensive analysis of
    the variances in products liability among the jurisdic-
    tions. That review separates the law into four catego-
    ries. Even assuming additional permutations and combina-
    tions, plaintiffs have made a creditable showing, which
    apparently satisfied the district court, that class
    certification does not present insuperable obstacles.
    Although we have some doubt on this score, the effort may
    nonetheless prove successful.
    789 F.2d at 1010; see also Georgine, 
    1996 WL 242442
    , at *12 & n.13
    (distinguishing School Asbestos because it involved few individual-
    ized questions, and class counsel had made a credible argument that
    the applicable law of the different states could be categorized
    into   four   patterns);   Walsh,   
    807 F.2d at 1017
       (holding   that
    “nationwide    class   action   movants   must   creditably   demonstrate,
    through an ‘extensive analysis’ of state law variances, ‘that class
    certification does not present insuperable obstacles’”).
    A thorough review of the record demonstrates that, in this
    case, the district court did not properly consider how variations
    in state law affect predominance.         The court acknowledged as much
    in its order granting class certification, for, in declining to
    14
    make a choice of law determination, it noted that “[t]he parties
    have only briefly addressed the conflict of laws issue in this
    matter.”        160 F.R.D. at 554.         Similarly, the court stated that
    “there has been no showing that the consumer protection statutes
    differ so much as to make individual issues predominate.”                  Id.14
    The district court’s review of state law variances can hardly
    be considered extensive; it conducted a cursory review of state law
    variations and gave short shrift to the defendants’ arguments
    concerning variations.           In response to the defendants’ extensive
    analysis of how state law varied on fraud, products liability,
    affirmative defenses, negligent infliction of emotional distress,
    consumer protection statutes, and punitive damages,15 the court
    14
    The defendants contend that this statement shows that the court
    erroneously placed the burden on them to show that the various state statutes
    differ, rather than on the plaintiffs to show that they do not. See American
    Medical Systems, 
    75 F.3d at 1085
    .
    15
    We find it difficult to fathom how common issues could predominate in
    this case when variations in state law are thoroughly considered. The Georgine
    court found that common issues in an asbestos class action did not predominate:
    However, beyond these broad issues, the class
    members’ claims vary widely in character. Class members
    were exposed to different asbestos-containing products,
    for different amounts of time, in different ways, and
    over different periods. Some class members suffer no
    physical injury or have only asymptomatic pleural
    changes, while others suffer from lung cancer, disabling
    asbestosis, or from mesotheliomaSSa disease which,
    despite a latency period of approximately fifteen to
    forty years, generally kills its victims within two
    years after they become symptomatic.        Each has a
    different history of cigarette smoking, a factor that
    complicates the causation inquiry.
    . . .
    These factual differences translate into signifi-
    cant legal differences.      Differences in amount of
    exposure and nexus between exposure and injury lead to
    disparate applications of legal rules, including matters
    of causation, comparative fault, and the types of
    (continued...)
    15
    examined a sample phase 1 jury interrogatory and verdict form, a
    (...continued)
    damages available to each plaintiff.
    Furthermore, because we must apply an individual-
    ized choice of law analysis to each plaintiff’s claims,
    the proliferation of disparate factual and legal issues
    is compounded exponentially. . . . In short, the number
    of uncommon issues in this humongous class action, with
    perhaps as many as a million class members, is colossal.
    
    1995 WL 242442
    , at *11 (citations omitted).
    The Castano class suffers from many of the difficulties that the Georgine
    court found dispositive. The class members were exposed to nicotine through
    different products, for different amounts of time, and over different time
    periods. Each class member’s knowledge about the effects of smoking differs, and
    each plaintiff began smoking for different reasons.      Each of these factual
    differences impacts the application of legal rules such as causation, reliance,
    comparative fault, and other affirmative defenses.
    Variations in state law magnify the differences. In a fraud claim, some
    states require justifiable reliance on a misrepresentation, see Allgood v. R.J.
    Reynolds Tobacco Co., 
    80 F.3d 168
    , 171 (5th Cir. 1996); Burroughs v. Jackson
    Nat’l Life Ins. Co., 
    618 So. 2d 1329
    , 1332 (Ala. 1993), while others require
    reasonable reliance, see Parks v. Morris Homes Corp., 
    141 S.E.2d 129
    , 132 (S.C.
    1965). States impose varying standards to determine when there is a duty to
    disclose facts. See Sugarhouse Fin. Co. v. Anderson, 
    610 P.2d 1369
    , 1373 (Utah
    1980) (finding no duty when transaction was made at arm’s length); Dodd v. Nelda
    Stephenson Chevrolet, Inc., 
    626 So. 2d 1288
    , 1293 (Ala. 1993) (using a flexible
    standard based on the transaction and relationship of the parties).
    Products liability law also differs among states. Some states do not
    recognize strict liability. E.g., Cline v. Prowler Indus., 
    418 A.2d 968
    , 979-80
    (Del. 1980). Some have adopted RESTATEMENT (SECOND) OF TORTS § 402A. E.g., O.S.
    Stapley Co. v. Miller, 
    447 P.2d 248
    , 251-52 (Ariz. 1968). Among the states that
    have adopted the Restatement, there are variations. See 5 STUART M. SPEISER ET AL.,
    THE AMERICAN LAW OF TORTS §§ 18.31, 18:34-18:35 (Law Co-op 1996).
    Differences in affirmative defenses also exist. Assumption of risk is a
    complete defense to a products claim in some states.          E.g., S.C. CODE ANN.
    § 15-73-20 (Law Co-op 1976). In others, it is a part of comparative fault
    analysis. E.g., COLO. REV. STAT. § 13-21-111.7 (1986). Some states utilize “pure”
    comparative fault, e.g., ARIZ. REV. STAT. ANN. § 12-2503-09 (1984); others follow
    a “greater fault bar,” e.g., CONN. GEN. STAT. ANN. § 52-572h (West 1988); and still
    others use an “equal fault bar,” e.g., ARK. CODE ANN. § 16-64-122 (Michie 1991).
    Negligent infliction of emotional distress also involves wide variations.
    See Douglas B. Marlow, Negligent Infliction of Mental Distress: A Jurisdictional
    Survey of Existing Limitation Devices and Proposal Based on an Analysis of
    Objective Versus Subjective Indices of Distress, 33 VILL. L. REV. 781 (1988).
    Some states do not recognize the cause of action at all. See Allen v. Walker,
    
    569 So. 2d 350
    , 352 (Ala. 1990). Some require a physical impact. See OB-GYN
    Assocs. v. Littleton, 
    386 S.E.2d 146
    , 148 (Ga. 1989).
    Despite these overwhelming individual issues, common issues might
    predominate. We are, however, left to speculate. The point of detailing the
    alleged differences is to demonstrate the inquiry the district court failed to
    make.
    16
    survey of medical monitoring decisions, a survey of consumer fraud
    class   actions,    and   a   survey   of   punitive   damages    law   in   the
    defendants’ home states.         The court also relied on two district
    court opinions granting certification in multi-state class actions.
    The district court’s consideration of state law variations was
    inadequate.      The surveys provided by the plaintiffs failed to
    discuss, in any meaningful way, how the court could deal with
    variations in state law.        The consumer fraud survey simply quoted
    a few state courts that had certified state class actions.                   The
    survey of punitive damages was limited to the defendants’ home
    states.      Moreover, the two district court opinions on which the
    court relied did not support the proposition that variations in
    state law could be ignored.16          Nothing in the record demonstrates
    that the court critically analyzed how variations in state law
    would affect predominance.
    The court also failed to perform its duty to determine whether
    16
    Both the plaintiffs and the district court cite Cordis and School
    Asbestos for the definitive proposition that state law does not vary enough in
    negligence, strict liability, or fraud to prevent certification. See Castano,
    160 F.R.D. at 554.    Putting aside the obvious objection that a court must
    independently analyze the case before it to determine predominance, such reliance
    is misplaced.
    In Cordis, the court specifically recognized that there are differences in
    the law of strict liability and fraud in different jurisdictions. The court
    certified the class despite those differences because the differences did not
    eliminate predominance in that particular case.      Such a finding cannot be
    reflexively applied to the case sub judice.
    The same is true of School Asbestos.       Like the court in Cordis, the
    district court there found little variation in state negligence law. The Third
    Circuit agreed that the variations in strict liability would not make the class
    unmanageable. 789 F.2d at 1009. See also Georgine, 
    1996 WL 242442
    , at *12 &
    n.13 (acknowledging that the court in School Asbestos certified the class despite
    variations in state law, but limiting the reach of the decision to cases where
    variations can be broken down into a small number of patterns). It is a stretch
    to characterize these two cases as standing for the proposition that state law
    does not vary on negligence, strict liability, or fraud.
    17
    the   class   action    would   be   manageable    in   light   of   state   law
    variations.     The court’s only discussion of manageability is a
    citation to Jenkins and the claim that “[w]hile manageability of
    the liability issues in this case may well prove to be difficult,
    the Court finds that any such difficulties pale in comparison to
    the specter of thousands, if not millions, of similar trials of
    liability proceeding in thousands of courtrooms around the nation.”
    
    Id. at 555-56
    .
    The problem with this approach is that it substitutes case-
    specific analysis with a generalized reference to Jenkins.                   The
    Jenkins court, however, was not faced with managing a novel claim
    involving eight causes of action, multiple jurisdictions, millions
    of plaintiffs, eight defendants, and over fifty years of alleged
    wrongful conduct.        Instead, Jenkins involved only 893 personal
    injury asbestos cases, the law of only one state, and the prospect
    of trial occurring in only one district. Accordingly, for purposes
    of the instant case, Jenkins is largely inapposite.
    In summary, whether the specter of millions of cases outweighs
    any manageability problems in this class is uncertain when the
    scope of any manageability problems is unknown.             Absent considered
    judgment on    the     manageability    of   the   class,   a   comparison    to
    millions of individual trials is meaningless.
    B. Predominance
    The district court’s second error was that it failed to
    consider how the plaintiffs’ addiction claims would be tried,
    18
    individually or on a class basis.            See 160 F.R.D. at 554.          The
    district court, based on Eisen v. Carlisle & Jacquelin, 
    417 U.S. 156
    , 177-78 (1974), and Miller v. Mackey Int’l, 
    452 F.2d 424
     (5th
    Cir. 1971), believed that it could not go past the pleadings for
    the certification decision.           The result was an incomplete and
    inadequate predominance inquiry.
    The crux of the court’s error was that it misinterpreted Eisen
    and Miller.     Neither case suggests that a court is limited to the
    pleadings when deciding on certification. Both, instead, stand for
    the unremarkable proposition that the strength of a plaintiff’s
    claim should not affect the certification decision.              In Eisen, the
    Court held that it was improper to make a preliminary inquiry into
    the merits of a case, determine that the plaintiff was likely to
    succeed, and consequently shift the cost of providing notice to the
    defendant.     
    417 U.S. at 177
    .       In Miller, this court held that a
    district court could not deny certification based on its belief
    that the plaintiff could not prevail on the merits.                   
    452 F.2d at 427
    .
    A district court certainly may look past the pleadings to
    determine whether the requirements of rule 23 have been met.17
    17
    See Falcon, 
    457 U.S. at 160
     (“Sometimes the issues are plain enough from
    the pleadings . . . and sometimes it may be necessary for the court to probe
    behind the pleadings before coming to rest on the certification question.”);
    Coopers & Lybrand v. Livesay, 
    437 U.S. 463
    , 469 (1978) (reasoning that “the class
    determination generally involves considerations that are ‘enmeshed in the factual
    and legal issues comprising the plaintiff’s cause of action.’”); 
    id.
     at 469 n.12
    (“‘Evaluation of many of the questions entering into determination of class
    action questions is intimately involved with the merits of the claims. The
    typicality of the representative’s claim or defenses . . . and the presence of
    common questions of law or fact are obvious examples.          The more complex
    determinations required in Rule 23(b)(3) class actions entail even greater
    (continued...)
    19
    Going beyond the pleadings is necessary, as a court must understand
    the claims, defenses, relevant facts, and applicable substantive
    law in order to make a meaningful determination of the certifica-
    tion issues.      See MANUAL   FOR   COMPLEX LITIGATION § 30.11 (3d ed. 1995).
    The district court’s predominance inquiry demonstrates why
    such an understanding is necessary.               The premise of the court’s
    opinion is a citation to Jenkins and a conclusion that class
    treatment    of    common      issues    would    significantly   advance    the
    individual trials.       Absent knowledge of how addiction-as-injury
    cases would actually be tried, however, it was impossible for the
    court to know whether the common issues would be a “significant”
    portion of the individual trials.                The court just assumed that
    because the common issues would play a part in every trial, they
    must be significant.18         The court’s synthesis of Jenkins and Eisen
    would write the predominance requirement out of the rule, and any
    common issue would predominate if it were common to all the
    (...continued)
    entanglement with the merits.’”); Love v. Turlington, 
    733 F.2d 1562
    , 1564 (11th
    Cir. 1984) (“While it is true that a trial court may not properly reach the
    merits of a claim when determining whether the class certification is warranted,
    this principle should not be talismanically invoked to artificially limit a trial
    court’s examination of the factors necessary to a reasoned determination of
    whether a plaintiff has met her burden of establishing each of the Rule 23 class
    action requirements.”); Huff v. N.D. Cass Co., 
    485 F.2d 710
    , 713 (5th Cir. 1973)
    (en banc) (“It is inescapable that in some cases there will be overlap between
    the demands of [rule] 23(a) and (b) and the question of whether plaintiff can
    succeed on the merits.”).
    18
    The district court’s approach to predominance stands in stark contrast
    to the methodology the district court used in Jenkins. There, the district judge
    had a vast amount of experience with asbestos cases. He certified the state of
    the art defense because it was the most significant contested issue in each case.
    Jenkins, 109 F.R.D. at 279. To the contrary, however, the district court in the
    instant case did not, and could not, have determined that the common issues would
    be a significant part of each case. Unlike the judge in Jenkins, the district
    judge a quo had no experience with this type of case and did not even inquire
    into how a case would be tried to determine whether the defendants’ conduct would
    be a significant portion of each case.
    20
    individual trials.19
    The court’s treatment of the fraud claim also demonstrates the
    error inherent in its approach.20          According to both the advisory
    committee’s notes to Rule 23(b)(3) and this court’s decision in
    Simon v. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc., 
    482 F.2d 880
    19
    An incorrect predominance finding also implicates the court’s
    superiority analysis: The greater the number of individual issues, the less
    likely superiority can be established. American Medical Sys., 
    75 F.3d at 1084-85
    (distinguishing a single disaster mass tort from a more complex mass tort). The
    relationship between predominance and superiority in mass torts was recognized
    in the Advisory Committee’s note to rule 23(b)(3), which states:
    A “mass accident” resulting in injuries to numerous persons is
    ordinarily not appropriate for a class action because of the
    likelihood that significant questions, not only of damages but of
    liability and defenses to liability, would be present, affecting the
    individuals in different ways. In these circumstances an action
    conducted nominally as a class action would degenerate in practice
    into multiple lawsuits separately tried.
    FED. R. CIV. P. 23(b)(3) advisory committee’s note (citation omitted), reprinted
    in 
    39 F.R.D. 69
    , 103 (1966). See also Georgine, 
    1996 WL 242442
    , at *12-*13
    (relying on the Advisory Committee’s note); American Medical Sys., 73 F.3d at
    1084-85.
    The plaintiffs assert that Professor Charles Allen Wright, a member of the
    Advisory Committee has now repudiated this passage in the notes. See H. NEWBERG,
    3 NEWBERG ON CLASS ACTIONS § 17.06 (3d ed. 1992).    Professor Wright’s recent
    statements, made as an advocate in School Asbestos, must be viewed with some
    caution. As Professor Wright has stated:
    I certainly did not intend by that statement to say that a
    class should be certified in all mass tort cases. I merely wanted
    to take the sting out of the statement in the Advisory Committee
    Note, and even that said only that a class action is “ordinarily not
    appropriate” in mass-tort cases.     The class action is a complex
    device that must be used with discernment. I think for example that
    Judge Jones in Louisiana would be creating a Frankenstein’s monster
    if he should allow certification of what purports to be a class
    action on behalf of everyone who has ever been addicted to nicotine.
    Letter of Dec. 22, 1994, to N. Reid Neureiter, Williams & Connolly, Washington,
    D.C.
    20
    The court specifically discussed reliance in the context of a fraud
    claim. Reliance is also an element of breach of warranty claims in some states,
    see, e.g., Modern Farm Serv., Inc. v. Ben Pearson, Inc., 
    308 F.2d 18
    , 23 (5th
    Cir. 1962) (Arkansas); Caruso v. Celsius Insulation Resources, Inc., 
    101 F.R.D. 530
    , 536 (M.D. Pa. 1984), and an element of consumer protection statutes in
    others, see, e.g., Louisiana ex rel. Guste v. General Motors Corp., 
    370 So. 2d 477
    , 489 (La. 1979).
    21
    (5th Cir. 1973), a fraud class action cannot be certified when
    individual reliance will be an issue.           The district court avoided
    the reach of this court’s decision in Simon by an erroneous reading
    of Eisen; the court refused to consider whether reliance would be
    an issue in individual trials.
    The problem with the district court’s approach is that after
    the class trial, it might have decided that reliance must be proven
    in individual trials.         The court then would have been faced with
    the difficult choice of decertifying the class after phase 1 and
    wasting judicial resources, or continuing with a class action that
    would have failed the predominance requirement of rule 23(b)(3).210.
    Rule 23(b)(3) states:
    An action may be maintained as a class action if . . . the court
    finds that the questions of law or fact common to the members of the
    class predominate over any questions affecting only the individual
    members, and that a class action is superior to other available
    methods for the fair and efficient adjudication of the controversy.
    Rule 23(c)(4) states:
    When appropriate . . . an action may be brought or maintained as a
    class action with respect to particular issues, . . . and the
    provisions of this rule shall the be construed and applied accord-
    21
    Severing the defendants’ conduct from reliance under rule 23(c)(4) does
    not save the class action. A district court cannot manufacture predominance
    through the nimble use of subdivision (c)(4). The proper interpretation of the
    interaction between subdivisions (b)(3) and (c)(4) is that a cause of action, as
    a whole, must satisfy the predominance requirement of (b)(3) and that (c)(4) is
    a housekeeping rule that allows courts to sever the common issues for a class
    trial.
    22
    22
    ingly.
    III.
    In addition to the reasons given above, regarding the district
    court’s procedural errors, this class must be decertified because
    it     independently         fails     the      superiority         requirement      of
    rule     23(b)(3).      In   the     context    of    mass   tort    class   actions,
    certification        dramatically     affects      the   stakes     for    defendants.
    Class     certification      magnifies       and     strengthens     the    number   of
    unmeritorious claims.         Agent Orange, 818 F.2d at 165-66.              Aggrega-
    tion of claims also makes it more likely that a defendant will be
    found liable and results in significantly higher damage awards.
    MANUAL   FOR   COMPLEX LITIGATION § 33.26 n.1056; Kenneth S. Bordens and
    Irwin A. Horowitz, Mass Tort Civil Litigation: The Impact of
    Procedural Changes on Jury Decisions, 73 JUDICATURE 22 (1989).
    In addition to skewing trial outcomes, class certification
    creates insurmountable pressure on defendants to settle, whereas
    individual trials would not.            See Peter H. Schuck, Mass Torts: An
    Institutional Evolutionist Perspective, 80 CORNELL L. REV. 941, 958
    See In re N.D. Cal. Dalkon Shield IUD Prods. Liability Litig., 
    693 F.2d 847
    , 856 (9th Cir. 1982) (balancing severed issues against the
    remaining individual issues), cert. denied, 
    459 U.S. 1171
     (1983);
    see also Jenkins, 109 F.R.D. at 278 (comparing state of the art
    defense to individual questions of exposure and degree of injury in
    a class action certified only on the common issue of the state of
    the art defense). Reading rule 23(c)(4) as allowing a court to
    sever issues until the remaining common issue predominates over the
    remaining individual issues would eviscerate the predominance
    requirement of rule 23(b)(3); the result would be automatic
    certification in every case where there is a common issue, a result
    that could not have been intended.
    23
    (1995).        The risk of facing an all-or-nothing verdict presents too
    high a risk, even when the probability of an adverse judgment is
    low.        Rhone-Poulenc, 
    51 F.3d at 1298
    .    These settlements have been
    referred to as judicial blackmail.23
    It is no surprise then, that historically, certification of
    mass tort litigation classes has been disfavored.24 The traditional
    23
    In re Gen. Motors Corp. Pick-Up Truck Fuel Tank Prods. Liability Litig.,
    
    55 F.3d 768
    , 784-85 (3d Cir.), cert. denied, 
    116 S. Ct. 88
     (1995); Rhone-Poulenc,
    
    51 F.3d at 1299-1300
    . See also Georgine, 
    1996 WL 242442
    , at *10 n.10 (rejecting
    the argument that the possibility of settlement should be factored positively in
    applying rule 23(b)(3)). But see In re A.H. Robins Co., 
    880 F.2d 709
    , 740 (4th
    Cir. 1985) (treating the fact that certification may foster settlement as a
    positive factor when applying rule 23(b)(3)) (dicta), cert. denied, 
    493 U.S. 959
    (1989).
    24
    At the time rule 23 was drafted, mass tort litigation as we now know it
    did not exist. Schuck, supra, at 945. The term had been applied to single-event
    accidents. Id. Even in those cases, the advisory committee cautioned against
    certification. See supra note 19. As modern mass tort litigation has evolved,
    courts have been willing to certify simple single disaster mass torts, see
    Sterling v. Velsicol Chem. Corp., 
    855 F.2d 1188
    , 1197 (6th Cir. 1987), but have
    been hesitant to certify more complex mass torts, see Georgine, 
    1996 WL 242442
    ,
    at *12-*14, *19 (discussing the trend in certification and decertifying an
    asbestos class action); American Medical Sys., 
    75 F.3d at 1084-85
    . See also
    Rhone-Poulenc, 
    51 F.3d 1293
     (decertifying class); In re Joint E. & S. Dist.
    Asbestos Litig., 
    14 F.3d 726
     (2d Cir. 1993) (vacating limited fund class action);
    In re Bendectin Prod. Liability Litig., 
    749 F.2d 300
     (6th Cir. 1984) (granting
    mandamus reversing class certification); Dalkon Shield IUD Prods. Liability
    Litig., 
    693 F.2d at 856
     (decertifying class for lack of commonality and
    superiority); Harding v. Tambrands Inc., 
    165 F.R.D. 623
    , ___, 
    1996 WL 138057
    ,
    at *5 (D. Kan. 1996) (denying certification of nationwide class of persons
    alleging toxic shock syndrome); Kurczi v. Eli Lilly & Co., 
    160 F.R.D. 667
     (N.D.
    Ohio 1995) (denying nationwide class certification); Hurd v. Monsanto Co., 
    164 F.R.D. 234
     (S.D. Ind. 1995) (refusing to certify class of persons alleging PCB
    exposure at one plant); Bethards v. Bard Access Sys., Inc., 
    1995 WL 75356
     (N.D.
    Ill. 1995) (recommending denial of class certification in products liability
    action regarding catheters); Ikonen v. Hartz Mountain Corp., 
    122 F.R.D. 258
     (S.D.
    Cal. 1988) (denying class certification in flea and tick spray products liability
    action); In re Tetracycline Cases, 
    107 F.R.D. 719
     (W.D. Mo. 1985) (denying
    certification because class action is not superior method of adjudication);
    Mertens v. Abbott Laboratories, 
    99 F.R.D. 38
     (D.N.H. 1983) (denying certification
    of class in DES litigation); Ryan v. Eli Lilly & Co., 
    84 F.R.D. 230
     (D.S.C. 1979)
    (denying certification of class of women who took synthetic estrogen during
    pregnancy); Yandle v. PPG Indus., 
    65 F.R.D. 566
     (E.D. Tex. 1974) (denying
    asbestos claims class certification). But see Central Wesleyan College v. W.R.
    Grace & Co., 
    6 F.3d 177
     (4th Cir. 1993) (affirming certification of class of
    colleges in suit against asbestos manufacturer); Agent Orange, 818 F.2d at 166-67
    (certifying class despite manageability difficulties because of centrality of
    military contractor defense); School Asbestos, 
    789 F.2d 996
    ; In re Teletronics
    Pacing System, Inc., Acufix Atrail “J” Leads Prod. Liability Litig., No. C-1-95-
    (continued...)
    24
    concern over the rights of defendants in mass tort class actions is
    magnified in the instant case.        Our specific concern is that a mass
    tort cannot be properly certified without a prior track record of
    trials from which the district court can draw the information
    necessary to make the predominance and superiority requirements
    required by rule 23.      This is because certification of an immature
    tort results in a higher than normal risk that the class action may
    not be superior to individual adjudication.
    We first address the district court’s superiority analysis.
    The court acknowledged the extensive manageability problems with
    this   class.      Such   problems    include    difficult    choice    of   law
    determinations, subclassing of eight claims with variations in
    state law, Erie guesses, notice to millions of class members,
    further subclassing to take account of transient plaintiffs, and
    the difficult procedure for determining who is nicotine-dependent.
    Cases with far fewer manageability problems have given courts
    pause.    See, e.g., Georgine, 
    1996 WL 242442
    , at *19; In re Hotel
    Tel., 
    500 F.2d at 909
    .
    The district court’s rationale for certification in spite of
    such problemsSSi.e., that a class trial would preserve judicial
    resources in the millions of inevitable individual trialsSSis based
    (...continued)
    094 (S.D. Ohio, Nov. 17, 1995) (certifying class against manufacturer of alleged
    defective pacemaker leads) (unpublished); In re Copley Pharmaceutical, Inc., 
    161 F.R.D. 456
     (D. Wyo. 1995) (certifying nationwide class for limited threshold
    liability issues regarding prescription drug albuterol, but refusing to certify
    class for individual issues of liability and causation or punitive damages);
    Craft v. Vanderbilt Univ., No. 3:94-0090 (M.D. Tenn. July 14, 1994) (certifying
    class for exposure to a radioactive isotope in medical experiments)
    (unpublished); In re Cordis Cardiac Pacemaker Prod. Liability Litig., No. C-3-90-
    374 (S.D. Ohio Dec. 23, 1992) (unpublished).
    25
    on pure speculation.        Not every mass tort is asbestos, and not
    every mass tort will result in the same judicial crises.25                   The
    judicial crisis to which the district court referred is only
    theoretical.
    What the district court failed to consider, and what no court
    can determine at this time, is the very real possibility that the
    judicial crisis may fail to materialize.26           The plaintiffs’ claims
    25
    There is reason to believe that even a mass tort like asbestos could
    be managed, without class certification, in a way that avoids judicial meltdown.
    See Georgine, 
    1996 WL 242442
    , at *21 (suggesting methods, short of a nationwide
    class action, that would be more efficient than individual trials); John A.
    Siliciano, Mass Torts and the Rhetoric of Crisis, 80 CORNELL L. REV. 980, 1010-12
    (1995) (suggesting that stringent “gate keeping” by courts at the outset would
    have prevented asbestos from becoming a monstrous mass tort). In a case such as
    this one, where causation is a key element, disaggregation of claims allows
    courts to dismiss weak and frivolous claims on summary judgment.
    Where novel theories of recovery are advanced (such as addiction as
    injury), courts can aggressively weed out untenable theories. See, e.g., Allgood
    v. R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., 
    80 F.3d 168
    , 172 (5th Cir. 1996) (rejecting
    failure-to-warn claim against tobacco companies based on inadequate proof of
    reliance and, alternatively, on “common knowledge” theory). Courts can use case
    management techniques to avoid discovery abuses. The parties can also turn to
    mediation and arbitration to settle individual or aggregated cases.
    26
    The plaintiffs, in seemingly inconsistent positions, argue that the lack
    of a judicial crisis justifies certification; they assert that the reason why
    individual plaintiffs have not filed claims is that the tobacco industry makes
    individual trials far too expensive and plaintiffs are rarely successful. The
    fact that a party continuously loses at trial does not justify class
    certification, however. See American Medical Systems, 
    75 F.3d at
    1087 and n.20
    (granting mandamus in part because judge’s comments that class treatment was
    warranted because the defendant had greater litigation resources than the
    plaintiff demonstrated a bias in favor of certification by the judge). The
    plaintiffs’ argument, if accepted, would justify class treatment whenever a
    defendant has better attorneys and resources at its disposal.
    The plaintiffs’ claim also overstates the defendants’ ability to outspend
    plaintiffs. Assuming arguendo that the defendants pool resources and outspend
    plaintiffs in individual trials, there is no reason why plaintiffs still cannot
    prevail. The class is represented by a consortium of well-financed plaintiffs’
    lawyers who, over time, can develop the expertise and specialized knowledge
    sufficient to beat the tobacco companies at their own game. See Francis E.
    McGovern, An Analysis of Mass Torts for Judges, 73 TEX. L. REV. 1821, 1834-35
    (1995) (suggesting that plaintiffs can overcome tobacco defendants’ perceived
    advantage when a sufficient number of plaintiffs have filed claims and shared
    discovery). Courts can also overcome the defendant’s alleged advantages through
    coordination or consolidation of cases for discovery and other pretrial matters.
    See MANUAL FOR COMPLEX LITIGATION at §33.21-25.
    26
    are based on a new theory of liability and the existence of new
    evidence.       Until plaintiffs decide to file individual claims, a
    court cannot, from the existence of injury, presume that all or
    even any plaintiffs will pursue legal remedies.270. See Allgood v. R.
    J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., No. 95-20363, 
    1996 WL 146250
    , at *2 (5th Cir. Apr. 16,
    1996) (holding that common knowledge is a defense to a duty to warn and warranty
    claim).28    Nor can a court make a superiority determination based on
    such speculation.      American Medical Sys., 
    75 F.3d at 1085
     (opining
    that superiority is lacking where judicial management crisis does
    not exist and individual trials are possible).
    Severe manageability problems and the lack of a judicial
    crisis are not the only reasons why superiority is lacking.                 The
    most compelling rationale for finding superiority in a class
    actionSSthe existence of a negative value suitSSis missing in this
    case.       Accord Phillips Petroleum Co. v. Shutts, 
    472 U.S. 797
    , 809
    (1985); Rhone-Poulenc, 
    51 F.3d at 1299
    .
    As he stated in the record, plaintiffs’ counsel in this case
    has promised to inundate the courts with individual claims if class
    certification is denied.       Independently of the reliability of this
    self-serving promise, there is reason to believe that individual
    27
    There are numerous reasons why plaintiffs with positive-value suits opt
    out of the tort system, including risk aversion to engaging in litigation,
    privacy concerns, and alternative avenues for medical treatment, such as
    Medicaid.   See McGovern, supra, at 1827-28.     In a case where comparative
    negligence is raised, plaintiffs have the best insight into their own relative
    fault.
    Ultimately, a court cannot extrapolate, from the number of
    potential plaintiffs, the actual number of cases that will be
    filed. See id. at 1823 & n.8 (contending that only 10 to 20% of
    persons who suffer harm actually invoke the tort litigation
    process).
    27
    suits are feasible.   First, individual damage claims are high, and
    punitive damages are available in most states.          The expense of
    litigation does not necessarily turn this case into a negative
    value suit, in part because the prevailing party may recover
    attorneys’ fees under many consumer protection statutes. See Boggs
    v. Alto Trailer Sales, 
    511 F.2d 114
    , 118 (5th Cir. 1974) (acknowl-
    edging that the availability of attorneys’ fees is a common basis
    for finding non-superiority).
    In a case such as this one, where each plaintiff may receive
    a large award, and fee shifting often is available, we find Chief
    Judge Posner’s analysis of superiority to be persuasive:
    For this consensus or maturing of judgment the district
    judge proposes to substitute a single trial before a
    single jury . . . . One jury . . . will hold the fate of
    an industry in the palm of its hand. . . . That kind of
    thing can happen in our system of civil justice . . . .
    But it need not be tolerated when the alternative exists
    of submitting an issue to multiple juries constituting in
    the aggregate a much larger and more diverse sample of
    decision-makers. That would not be a feasible option if
    the stakes to each class member were too slight to repay
    the cost of suit . . . .      But this is not the case
    . . . . Each plaintiff if successful is apt to receive
    a judgment in the millions. With the aggregate stakes in
    the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, or even in
    the billions, it is not a waste of judicial resources to
    conduct more than one trial, before more than six jurors,
    to determine whether a major segment of the international
    pharmaceutical industry is to follow the asbestos
    manufacturers into Chapter 11.
    Rhone-Poulenc, 
    51 F.3d at 1300
    .     So too here, we cannot say that it
    would be a waste to allow individual trials to proceed, before a
    district   court   engages   in   the   complicated   predominance   and
    superiority analysis necessary to certify a class.
    Fairness may demand that mass torts with few prior
    verdicts  or judgments be litigated first in smaller
    28
    unitsSSeven single-plaintiff, single-defendant trialsSS
    until general causation, typical injuries, and levels of
    damages become established. Thus, “mature” mass torts
    like asbestos or Dalkon Shield may call for procedures
    that are not appropriate for incipient mass tort cases,
    such as those involving injuries arising from new
    products, chemical substances, or pharmaceuticals.
    MANUAL   FOR   COMPLEX LITIGATION § 33.26.
    The remaining rationale for superioritySSjudicial efficiency29SS
    is also lacking.         In the context of an immature tort, any savings
    in judicial resources is speculative, and any imagined savings
    would be overwhelmed by the procedural problems that certification
    of a sui generis cause of action brings with it.
    Even assuming arguendo that the tort system will see many more
    addiction-as-injury claims, a conclusion that certification will
    save judicial resources is premature at this stage of the litiga-
    tion.     Take for example the district court’s plan to divide core
    liability from other issues such as comparative negligence and
    reliance. The assumption is that after a class verdict, the common
    issues will not be a part of follow-up trials.             The court has no
    basis for that assumption.
    It may be that comparative negligence will be raised in the
    individual trials, and the evidence presented at the class trial
    will have to be repeated.         The same may be true for reliance.30      The
    29
    See Sterling, 855 F.2d at 1196 (“The procedural device of Rule 23(b)(3)
    class action was designed not solely as a means for assuring legal assistance in
    the vindication of small claims but, rather, to achieve the economies of time,
    effort, and expense.”).
    30
    See, e.g., Allgood, 
    80 F.3d at 171
     (holding that under Texas law,
    reliance is an essential element of both affirmative fraud and fraudulent
    concealment).
    29
    net result may be a waste, not a savings, in judicial resources.
    Only after the courts have more experience with this type of case
    can a court certify issues in a way that preserves judicial
    resources.   See Jenkins, 
    782 F.2d 468
     (certifying state of the art
    defense because experience had demonstrated that judicial resources
    could by saved by certification).
    Even assuming that certification at this time would result in
    judicial efficiencies in individual trials, certification of an
    immature tort brings with it unique problems that may consume more
    judicial resources than certification will save.     These problems
    are not speculative; the district court faced, and ignored, many of
    the problems that immature torts can cause.
    The primary procedural difficulty created by immature torts is
    the inherent difficulty a district court will have in determining
    whether the requirements of rule 23 have been met.   We have already
    identified a number of defects with the district court’s predomi-
    nance and manageability inquires, defects that will continue to
    exist on remand because of the unique nature of the plaintiffs’
    claim.
    The district court’s predominance inquiry, or lack of it,
    squarely presents the problems associated with certification of
    immature torts.    Determining whether the common issues are a
    “significant” part of each individual case has an abstract quality
    to it when no court in this country has ever tried an injury-as-
    addiction claim. As the plaintiffs admitted to the district court,
    “we don’t have the learning curb [sic] that is necessary to say to
    30
    Your Honor ‘this is precisely how this case can be tried and that
    will not run afoul of the teachings of the 5th Circuit.’”
    Yet, an accurate finding on predominance is necessary before
    the court can certify a class.              It may turn out that the defen-
    dant’s conduct, while common, is a minor part of each trial.
    Premature certification deprives the defendant of the opportunity
    to present that argument to any court and risks decertification
    after considerable resources have been expended.
    The    court’s   analysis       of   reliance     also     demonstrates    the
    potential judicial inefficiencies in immature tort class actions.
    Individual trials will determine whether individual reliance will
    be an issue.    Rather than guess that reliance may be inferred, a
    district   court   should     base    its      determination     that   individual
    reliance does not predominate on the wisdom of such individual
    trials.    The risk that a district court will make the wrong guess,
    that the parties will engage in years of litigation, and that the
    class ultimately will be decertified (because reliance predominates
    over common    issues)   prevents         this   class      action   from   being a
    superior method of adjudication.
    The   complexity    of   the     choice     of   law    inquiry    also   makes
    individual adjudication superior to class treatment.                    The plain-
    tiffs have asserted eight theories of liability from every state.
    Prior to certification, the district court must determine whether
    variations in state law defeat predominance.                  While the task may
    not be impossible, its complexity certainly makes individual trials
    a more attractive alternative and, ipso facto, renders class
    31
    treatment not superior.          See Georgine, 
    1996 WL 242332
    , at *21
    (recommending that Congress solve the problems inherent in multi-
    state class actions by federalizing choice of law rules, but
    rejecting    such    legislation     when   it   masquerades   as   judicial
    innovation).
    Through individual adjudication, the plaintiffs can winnow
    their claims to the strongest causes of action.31          The result will
    be an easier choice of law inquiry and a less complicated predomi-
    nance inquiry.       State courts can address the more novel of the
    plaintiffs’ claims, making the federal court’s Erie guesses less
    complicated.     It is far more desirable to allow state courts to
    apply and develop their own law than to have a federal court apply
    “a kind of Esperanto [jury] instruction.”           Rhone-Poulenc, 
    51 F.3d at 1300
    ; MANUAL     FOR   COMPLEX LITIGATION § 33.26 (discussing the full
    cycle of litigation necessary for a tort to mature).
    The full development of trials in every state will make
    subclassing an easier process.         The result of allowing individual
    trials to proceed is a more accurate determination of predominance.
    We have already seen the result of certifying this class without
    individual adjudications, and we are not alone in expressing
    discomfort with a district court’s certification of a novel theory.
    31
    State courts are more than capable of providing definitive statements
    regarding the validity of addiction-as-injury claims.    See, e.g., Joseph E.
    Seagram & Sons v. McGuire, 
    814 S.W.2d 385
     (Tex. 1991) (accepting “common
    knowledge” theory and holding no cause of action for alcohol addiction claim
    based on products liability, misrepresentations, negligence, breach of implied
    warranties of merchantability and fitness, violations of consumer protection
    statutes, and conspiracy); see also Allgood, 
    80 F.3d at 171-72
     (rejecting
    failure-to-warn claim against tobacco companies based on inadequate proof of
    reliance and, alternatively, on “common knowledge” theory) (citing Joseph E.
    Seagram).
    32
    See Rhone-Poulenc, 
    51 F.3d at 1300
    .
    Another factor weighing heavily in favor of individual trials
    is the risk that in order to make this class action manageable, the
    court will be forced to bifurcate issues in violation of the
    Seventh Amendment.      This class action is permeated with individual
    issues,    such   as   proximate   causation,    comparative    negligence,
    reliance, and compensatory damages.          In order to manage so many
    individual issues, the district court proposed to empanel a class
    jury to adjudicate common issues.         A second jury, or a number of
    “second” juries, will pass on the individual issues, either on a
    case-by-case basis or through group trials of individual plain-
    tiffs.
    The Seventh Amendment entitles parties to have fact issues
    decided by one jury, and prohibits a second jury from reexamining
    those facts and issues.32     Thus, Constitution allows bifurcation of
    issues that are so separable that the second jury will not be
    called upon to reconsider findings of fact by the first:
    [T]his Court has cautioned that separation of issues is
    not the usual course that should be followed, and that
    the issue to be tried must be so distinct and separable
    from the others that a trial of it alone may be had
    without injustice.     This limitation on the use of
    bifurcation is a recognition of the fact that inherent in
    the Seventh Amendment guarantee of a trial by jury is the
    general right of a litigant to have only one jury pass on
    a common issue of fact. The Supreme Court recognized
    this principle in Gasoline Products . . . . The Court
    explained . . . that a partial new trial may not be
    “properly resorted to unless it clearly appears that the
    issue to be retried is so distinct and separable from the
    others that a trial of it alone may be had without
    32
    “[N]o fact tried by jury, shall be otherwise re-examined in any Court
    of the United States. . .” U.S. CONST. amend. VII.
    33
    injustice.”   Such a rule is dictated for the very
    practical reason that if separate juries are allowed to
    pass on issues involving overlapping legal and factual
    questions the verdicts rendered by each jury could be
    inconsistent.
    Alabama v. Blue Bird Body Co., 
    573 F.2d 309
    , 318 (5th Cir. 1978)
    (citations and footnotes omitted).
    The   Seventh   Circuit    recently    addressed   Seventh   Amendment
    limitations to bifurcation.         In Rhone-Poulenc, 
    51 F.3d at 1302-03
    ,
    Chief Judge Posner described the constitutional limitation as one
    requiring a court to “carve at the joint” in such a way so that the
    same issue is not reexamined by different juries. “The right to a
    jury trial . . . is a right to have juriable issues determined by
    the first jury impaneled to hear them (provided there are no errors
    warranting a new trial), and not reexamined by another finder of
    fact.”   
    Id. at 1303
    .
    Severing a defendant’s conduct from comparative negligence
    results in the type of risk that our court forbade in Blue Bird.
    Comparative   negligence,      by   definition,   requires   a    comparison
    between the defendant’s and the plaintiff’s conduct.                 Rhone-
    Poulenc, 
    51 F.3d at 1303
     (“Comparative negligence entails, as the
    name implies, a comparison of the degree of negligence of plaintiff
    and defendant.”).     At a bare minimum, a second jury will rehear
    evidence of the defendant’s conduct.           There is a risk that in
    apportioning fault, the second jury could reevaluate the defen-
    dant’s fault, determine that the defendant was not at fault, and
    apportion 100% of the fault to the plaintiff.        In such a situation,
    the second jury would be impermissibly reconsidering the findings
    34
    of a first jury.      The risk of such reevaluation is so great that
    class treatment can hardly be said to be superior to individual
    adjudication.33
    The plaintiffs’ final retort is that individual trials are
    inadequate because time is running out for many of the plaintiffs.34
    They point out that prior litigation against the tobacco companies
    has taken up to ten years to wind through the legal system.               While
    a compelling rhetorical argument, it is ultimately inconsistent
    with the plaintiffs’ own arguments and ignores the realities of the
    legal system.      First, the plaintiffs’ reliance on prior personal
    injury cases is unpersuasive, as they admit that they have new
    evidence and are pursuing a claim entirely different from that of
    past plaintiffs.
    Second, the plaintiffs’ claim that time is running out ignores
    the reality of the class action device.              In a complicated case
    involving multiple jurisdictions, the conflict of law question
    33
    The plaintiffs argue that any risk that a bifurcation order would
    violate the Seventh Amendment is speculative, as the plaintiffs may prevail on
    causes of action that either do not require bifurcation or do not contain issues
    that are so intertwined that the Seventh Amendment will be implicated.        In
    essence, plaintiffs’ argument boils down to a repudiation of the class
    complaint’s negligence and strict products liability claims.
    34
    This contention is disingenuous at best.       At oral argument, the
    plaintiffs asserted that time is of the essence, because plaintiffs who die
    cannot partake in a medical monitoring fund. What the plaintiffs failed to
    mention was that the district court refused to certify a medical monitoring fund,
    and the plaintiffs have not cross-appealed that decision. Moreover, for the
    remainder of the claims a plaintiff’s family or estate can sue based on
    survivorship statutes.     The plaintiffs’ class complaint envisions survivor
    lawsuits. In fact, the named plaintiff in this case, Dianne Castano, is a non-
    smoker who is suing both for the wrongful death of her husband and as a
    representative in a survival action.
    35
    itself could take decades to work its way through the courts.35
    Once that issue has been resolved, discovery, subclassing, and
    ultimately the class trial would take place.             Next would come the
    appellate process.       After the class trial, the individual trials
    and appeals on comparative negligence and damages would have to
    take place.     The net result could be that the class action device
    would lengthen, not shorten, the time it takes for the plaintiffs
    to reach final judgment.
    IV.
    The district court abused its discretion by ignoring varia-
    tions in state law and how a trial on the alleged causes of action
    would be tried. Those errors cannot be corrected on remand because
    of the novelty of the plaintiffs’ claims.                Accordingly, class
    treatment is not superior to individual adjudication.
    We have once before stated that “traditional ways of proceed-
    ing reflect far more than habit.         They reflect the very culture of
    the jury trial. . . .”       In re Fibreboard Corp., 
    893 F.2d 706
    , 711
    (5th Cir. 1990).       The collective wisdom of individual juries is
    necessary before this court commits the fate of an entire industry
    35
    The plaintiffs rely on School Asbestos for the proposition that
    variations in state law do not preclude predominance. Putting that issue aside,
    the case is instructive for what happened after the Third Circuit remanded to the
    district court. Almost nine years after the first complaint was filed, and eight
    years after the court of appeals had affirmed certification, the conflict of law
    issues had yet to be resolved. See In re Sch. Asbestos Litig., 
    977 F.2d 764
    , 771
    (3d Cir. 1992) (granting mandamus to disqualify judge but refusing to address
    whether district court’s trial plan properly resolved any problems with
    variations in state law because new judge may adopt a different trial plan).
    36
    or, indeed, the fate of a class of millions, to a single jury.   For
    the forgoing reasons, we REVERSE and REMAND with instructions that
    the district court dismiss the class complaint.
    37