Anne Harding v. County of Dallas, Texas, et ( 2020 )


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  •      Case: 18-11256   Document: 00515276497     Page: 1   Date Filed: 01/17/2020
    IN THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE FIFTH CIRCUIT  United States Court of Appeals
    Fifth Circuit
    FILED
    January 17, 2020
    No. 18-11256                   Lyle W. Cayce
    Clerk
    ANNE HARDING; GREGORY R. JACOBS; JOHANNES PETER SCHROER;
    HOLLY KNIGHT MORSE,
    Plaintiffs - Appellants
    v.
    COUNTY OF DALLAS, TEXAS; CLAY LEWIS JENKINS, in his Official
    Capacity as County Judge of Dallas County, Texas; THERESA DANIEL;
    MIKE CANTRELL; JOHN WILEY PRICE; ELBA GARCIA,
    Defendants - Appellees
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of Texas
    Before HIGGINBOTHAM, DENNIS, and HO, Circuit Judges.
    PATRICK E. HIGGINBOTHAM, Circuit Judge:
    Four Anglo voters in Dallas County, Texas challenge the county’s 2011
    redistricting plan for electing county commissioners, urging that it denied their
    rights under § 2 of the Voting Rights Act and the Equal Protection Clause of
    the Fourteenth Amendment by providing only one Anglo-majority district.
    I.
    Dallas County is governed by a Commissioners Court, comprising a
    county judge elected at-large and four commissioners elected from single-
    member districts. In 2011, the Commissioners Court concluded that
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    redistricting was necessary, as the districts created in response to the 2000
    Census were now malapportioned. Between 2000 and 2010, the county’s
    population grew by 6.7%, and its demographics shifted. The Hispanic share of
    the total population grew from 29.9% in 2000 to 38.3% in 2010 and the African-
    American share increased from 20.1% to 21.9%, while the Anglo share fell from
    44.3% to 33.1%, a drop of nearly 200,000 people over the decade.
    Faced with this dynamic, the Commissioners Court turned to
    redistricting, first hiring redistricting counsel and then an expert in North
    Texas geography and demographics, Matt Angle. There were then two
    Republican commissioners, two Democratic commissioners, and a Democratic
    county judge. The Court met in an executive session to discuss boundaries for
    map drawing with counsel and Angle. Responding to the resulting instruction,
    they presented a set of redistricting criteria, which the commissioners
    unanimously adopted. 1 Using the criteria, Angle generated four maps
    redistricting the county and presented them to the Commissioners Court
    during a closed-session meeting. The Commissioners selected one of the maps
    to be presented in three public hearings. After the hearings, the
    Commissioners Court adopted the new map by a vote of three to one. 2
    1  The criteria were, in rank order, “(1) complying with the one-person, one-vote
    requirement . . . , (2) complying with [Sections 2 and 5 of] the Voting Rights Act, . . .
    (3) respecting population increases and decreases in Dallas County over the decade,
    (4) respecting boundaries of voting tabulation districts where possible, and if not possible,
    creating voting Districts that ensure adequate polling place facilities, (5) considering
    completely redrawn maps, rather than single District maps, (6) respecting municipal and
    geographic boundaries (but subsidiary to requirements of Constitution and Voting Rights
    Act), and (7) creating geographically compact Districts composed of contiguous territory (but
    subsidiary to requirements of Constitution and Voting Rights Act).”
    2 Republican Commissioner Maurine Dickey, who had previously announced that she
    would not be seeking reelection, did not vote.
    2
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    In its submission of the new map to the Department of Justice for
    preclearance under § 5 of the Voting Rights Act, the Commissioners Court
    explained three of the new map’s districts 3:
    The new Commissioner Precinct map maintains two current
    minority opportunity precincts and creates a new minority
    opportunity precinct in Precinct 1. Specifically, the new map
    maintains Precinct 3 as an African American opportunity precinct.
    The African American population is increased in this precinct from
    45.6% to 47.9%. Precinct 4 which is currently represented by a
    Hispanic, who was the candidate of choice of minority voters in
    2010, has not been retrogressed. In fact, the current Precinct 4 is
    49.3% Hispanic and 65.5% Black plus Hispanic. The new Precinct
    4 is 57.9% Hispanic and 72.1% Black plus Hispanic. Precinct 1 is
    a new minority opportunity precinct. Precinct 1 has a Hispanic
    population of 48.0% and is 68.4% Black plus Hispanic.
    And District 2 is an Anglo-majority district. Anglo voters account for
    60.2% of its total population and 64.0% of the voting-age population. With the
    new map in effect, the Commissioners Court has a Democratic county judge,
    one Republican and three Democratic commissioners.
    II.
    In January 2015, four Anglo voters, one for each of the four districts, filed
    this suit against Dallas County and the members of the Commissioners Court
    in their official capacities. They alleged that the 2011 map violates § 2 of the
    Voting Rights Act by diluting Anglo votes. They also brought a claim under the
    Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, assertedly two
    separate claims: intentional vote dilution and racial gerrymandering. 4
    3   The Supreme Court had not yet decided Shelby Cty. v. Holder, 
    570 U.S. 529
    (2013).
    4   Although Plaintiffs asserted other claims, they are not at issue here.
    3
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    Two years and two amended complaints later, the parties cross-moved
    for summary judgment. The district court concluded that the “equal protection
    claim” was pleaded not as a racial gerrymandering claim but “as a vote dilution
    claim, and nothing more.” The district court set the case for trial thirty days
    hence. Plaintiffs did not seek leave to amend their complaint a third time.
    III.
    The case proceeded to a four-day bench trial with testimony from each of
    the four Plaintiffs and two expert witnesses for each side. The district court
    concluded that Plaintiffs “failed to prove that, were a second Anglo majority
    district drawn, Anglos would possess the potential to elect an Anglo
    Republican.” Plaintiffs appeal the rejection of their § 2 vote dilution claim after
    trial and the district court’s pre-trial ruling that no claim of racial
    gerrymandering was before the court.
    IV.
    Vote dilution suits are “peculiarly dependent upon the facts of each case,
    and require[] an intensely local appraisal of the design and impact of the
    contested electoral mechanisms.” 5 On summary judgment and after trial,
    questions of law are reviewed de novo, while questions of fact are reviewed for
    clear error. 6 The district court’s findings as to the threshold conditions
    established in Thornburg v. Gingles and the district court’s ultimate findings
    on vote dilution are subject to review only for clear error. 7 A finding is clearly
    erroneous if the “reviewing court is left with the definite and firm conviction
    5  Thornburg v. Gingles, 
    478 U.S. 30
    , 79 (1986) (internal quotation omitted).
    6  N.A.A.C.P. v. Fordice, 
    252 F.3d 361
    , 364–65 (5th Cir. 2001).
    7 Sensley v. Albritton, 
    385 F.3d 591
    , 595 (5th Cir. 2004). These three conditions
    address the existence of racially polarized voting and the relative power of the racial voting
    blocs. See 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 50
    –51.
    4
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    that a mistake has been committed. . . .” 8 By contrast, a finding is not clearly
    erroneous simply because the reviewing court “is convinced that it would have
    decided the case differently.” 9
    V.
    We turn first to Plaintiffs’ standing to assert their § 2 vote dilution claim.
    The standing gate opens the courthouse door to plaintiffs with an injury-in-
    fact that is traceable to the defendant’s actions and likely to be redressed by a
    favorable decision. 10 In vote dilution cases, the “harm arises from the particular
    composition of the voter’s own district, which causes his vote—having been
    packed or cracked—to carry less weight than it would carry in another,
    hypothetical district.” 11
    The district court found that each Plaintiff is an Anglo voter residing in
    a different district in Dallas County and that each asserts a legally cognizable
    injury—the dilution of their votes, that the Anglo voting population is packed
    into District 2, wasting Anglo voting power, and that the remainder of the
    Anglo population is cracked into Districts 1, 3, and 4, diluting the strength of
    their Anglo voters.
    While the uncontested facts appear to establish standing, Defendants
    urge that three of the Plaintiffs, through their testimony, nonetheless lost their
    otherwise-valid standing. As the argument goes, one Plaintiff testified at trial
    8 Anderson v. Bessemer City, 
    470 U.S. 564
    , 573 (1985).
    9 
    Id. 10 Lujan
    v. Defenders of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 560–61 (1992).
    11 Gil v. Whitford, 
    138 S. Ct. 1916
    , 1931 (2018); see also 
    id. at 1935
    (Kagan, J.,
    concurring in the judgment) (quoting Wesberry v. Sanders, 
    376 U.S. 1
    , 7 (1964)) (“To have
    standing to bring a partisan gerrymandering claim based on vote dilution, then, a plaintiff
    must prove that the value of her own vote has been ‘contract[ed].’ And that entails showing,
    as the Court holds, that she lives in a district that has been either packed or cracked.”).
    5
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    that her only injury was that her commissioner—a Republican whom she could
    not identify—was not conservative enough. Such testimony, Defendants say,
    admits the want of an injury to a legally cognizable interest and cannot be
    redressed in this suit, while Plaintiffs dispute the characterization and claimed
    effect of the testimony.
    This argument fails. The Plaintiff’s inability to explain the legal theory
    underlying her vote dilution claim is not fatal. Standing is not a pop quiz
    administered by able defense attorneys to unsophisticated plaintiffs. It is
    conceded that each voter resides in a district where their vote has been cracked
    or packed. That is enough. And the contention that the Plaintiffs’ injury cannot
    be redressed here collapses standing and merit resolution.
    VI.
    A.
    The district court concluded that Plaintiffs did not prove that Anglos, a
    minority in Dallas County, have the potential to elect their preferred
    candidate, a Republican, in a second commissioner district. Plaintiffs insist
    that the district court applied the wrong standard, that they need only provide
    an alternative map with two Anglo-majority districts. In their view, the district
    court, by demanding more evidence, has required them to show a “sure win,”
    not an opportunity of success. 12
    1.
    Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act prohibits any “voting qualification or
    prerequisite to voting or standard, practice, or procedure . . . which results in
    a denial or abridgement of the right of any citizen of the United States to vote
    12Defendants agree with the decision of the district court and offer additional
    arguments in its support, which we do not reach.
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    on account of race or color[.]” 13 It governs efforts to dilute the vote of racial
    minorities through redistricting. To establish a § 2 vote dilution claim, a
    plaintiff must show, “based on the totality of circumstances, . . . that the
    political processes leading to nomination or election” are “not equally open to
    participation by members of a class of citizens . . . in that its members have
    less opportunity than other members of the electorate to participate in the
    political process and to elect representatives of their choice.” 14 Section 2 does
    not, however, “establish[] a right to have members of a protected class elected
    in numbers equal to their proportion in the population.” 15
    In Gingles, the Supreme Court articulated a two-step test for
    establishing a § 2 vote dilution claim. 16 At the first step, the plaintiff must
    satisfy three threshold conditions: A “minority group” must be “sufficiently
    large and geographically compact to constitute a majority in a single member
    district”; 17 the minority group must be “politically cohesive”; 18 and the majority
    group must vote as a bloc such that it can “usually . . . defeat the minority’s
    preferred candidate.” 19 “Failure to establish any one of these threshold
    requirements is fatal,” 20 thresholds that guide the determination of whether
    “minority voters possess the potential to elect representatives in the absence
    of the challenged structure or practice[.]” 21 If minority voters lack this
    potential, “they cannot claim to have been injured by that structure or
    13 52 U.S.C. § 10301(a).
    14 
    Id. § 10301(b).
          15 
    Id. 16 478
    U.S. at 50–51.
    17 
    Id. at 50.
          18 
    Id. at 51.
          19 
    Id. 20 Campos
    v. City of Hous., 
    113 F.3d 544
    , 547 (5th Cir. 1997).
    21 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 51
    n.17.
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    practice.” 22 As the Supreme Court explained in Abbott v. Perez, “it is hard to
    see” how the Gingles factors “could be met if the alternative to the districting
    decision at issue would not enhance the ability of minority voters to elect the
    candidates of their choice.” 23
    After meeting the three prongs of Gingles, a plaintiff must establish that
    the “totality of the circumstances” supports a finding of vote dilution. 24 This
    entails a functional analysis that is “peculiarly dependent upon the facts of
    each case and requires an intensely local appraisal of the design and impact of
    the contested electoral mechanisms.” 25
    2.
    The able district court concluded that Plaintiffs satisfied the first prong
    of Gingles—the Anglo minority group was large and compact. It then analyzed
    the Plaintiffs’ evidence in support of the other two prongs of Gingles—the
    cohesion of the Anglo voters and the cohesion of the Hispanic voters. Turning
    to Plaintiffs’ alternative map, as well as the data and expert testimony offered
    by the parties, the district court concluded that Plaintiffs “have failed to prove
    the ‘ultimate question’ of vote dilution under § 2 because they have not proved
    that the minority group (i.e., Anglos) ‘has the potential to elect a [Republican],’
    which plaintiffs maintain would be the Anglo candidate of choice, in a possible
    second commissioner district.” 26 Accenting the completeness of this failure, the
    22 
    Id. 23 138
    S. Ct. 2305, 2332 (2018).
    24 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 79
    .
    25 
    Id. (internal quotation
    omitted).
    26 In conducting its analysis, the district court necessarily considered the Gingles
    factors, finding, for example, that Plaintiffs “failed to take into account the geographical
    dispersion of Anglo Democrats and the high concentration of these types of voters in the
    neighborhoods plaintiffs would include in their proposed ‘Anglo opportunity’ districts.”
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    district court observed that this followed even if it assumed Plaintiffs satisfied
    the three Gingles factors:
    [P]laintiffs did not offer any evidence at trial that would
    show how Republican candidates would fare in commissioner
    elections under their Remedial Plan. In fact, plaintiffs offered no
    evidence or analysis of any election using their proposed Remedial
    Plan. . . .
    . . . Plaintiffs have not presented evidence regarding the
    “functionality” of their proposed Remedial Plan, and have failed to
    prove that it is even possible to create two commissioner districts
    in which Dallas County Anglos would have an opportunity to elect
    a Republican (which plaintiffs maintain is the Anglo candidate of
    choice).
    Ultimately, the district court found that the Plaintiffs’ alternative map
    would lessen the potential for Anglo voters to elect a second county
    commissioner, likely resulting in all four districts being represented by
    Democrats.
    3.
    Plaintiffs first insist that they need only show an increased
    opportunity—not guaranteed success—for the Anglo-preferred candidate in a
    hypothetical district. True enough. 27 But an alternative map containing an
    additional majority-minority district does not necessarily establish an
    increased opportunity. The Supreme Court’s decision in Abbott v. Perez
    illustrates this commonsense conclusion. The Court considered whether the
    drawing of two districts diluted the voting power of the Latino population. 28
    The government’s map contained one Latino opportunity district and one
    27 See 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 50
    n.17 (emphasis added) (“Unless minority voters possess
    the potential to elect representatives in the absence of the challenged structure or practice,
    they cannot claim to have been injured by that structure or practice.”).
    28 
    Abbott, 138 S. Ct. at 2332
    .
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    Anglo district. Seeking a second Latino opportunity district, the plaintiffs in
    Abbott proposed a remedial map with different district lines. In that map,
    Latinos represented a majority of voting age citizens in both districts. Using
    election returns from 2010 and 2016, the plaintiffs’ expert estimated the
    performance of the two proposed Latino opportunity districts: “[O]ne
    performed for Latinos in only 7 out of 35 relevant elections, and the other did
    so in none of the 35 elections.” 29 After reviewing this evidence, the Supreme
    Court concluded that plaintiffs’ alternative map did not improve the ability of
    Latinos to elect their preferred candidates. 30 As a result, the vote dilution claim
    failed even though the alternative map there—just like the alternative map
    here—contained an additional majority-minority district.
    Plaintiffs’ efforts to diminish Abbott fail. They argue that Abbott’s force
    is limited to cases where “the plaintiff’s own expert testified that no possible,
    legal map could perform.” In their view, Abbott “did not hold that plaintiffs
    have the burden to prove such performance, only that its stipulated absence
    was problematic.” Not so. The Supreme Court held that “[c]ourts cannot find
    § 2 violations on the basis of uncertainty.” 31 The Court expressly rejected the
    lower court’s conclusion that a § 2 claim could prevail because it had not been
    disproven. 32 Arguably, Abbott simply applied this longstanding rule and did
    not raise the threshold for plaintiffs asserting § 2 claims. More importantly,
    29 
    Id. 30 Id.
          31 
    Id. at 2333.
          32 
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    our decision need not turn on Abbott’s reach. As recognized in Gingles, minority
    voters must have the potential to elect another candidate of their choosing. 33
    Our colleague argues that Plaintiffs have been deprived of fair notice
    that they must demonstrate an alternative plan under which they could elect
    an additional Anglo-preferred candidate—in essence, that they lacked notice
    of a new standard. Abbott observed that “[u]nder Gingles, the ultimate
    question is whether a districting decision dilutes the votes of minority voters,
    . . . and it is hard to see how this standard could be met if the alternatives to
    the districting decision at issue would not enhance the ability of minority
    voters to elect the candidates of their choice.” 34 The day after Abbott was
    decided, Defendants in this case flagged the opinion for the district court.
    Plaintiffs responded, urging that Abbott worked no relevant change in the law,
    that the Supreme Court “addressed § 2 only to the extent that the lower court
    had ruled that a plaintiff might succeed on its § 2 claim,” and that Abbott
    “recognized the uncertainty in that might and refused to uphold an
    invalidation of legislatively enacted districts on the basis of something the
    lower court did not actually find.” And Plaintiffs did not seek the opportunity
    to present further evidence. On August 23, 2018, two months after Abbott, the
    district court issued its memorandum opinion and judgment. The Notice of
    Appeal followed. There was no want of notice and no request for an opportunity
    33  
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 50
    n.17 (“Unless minority voters possess the potential to elect
    representatives in the absence of the challenged structure or practice, they cannot claim to
    have been injured by that structure or practice.”); see also Cooper v. Harris, 
    137 S. Ct. 1455
    ,
    1470 (2017) (quoting Growe v. Emison, 
    507 U.S. 25
    , 40 (1993) (The Gingles factors “are needed
    to establish that ‘the minority [group] has the potential to elect a representative of its own
    choice’ in a possible district, but that racially polarized voting prevents it from doing so in
    the district as actually drawn because it is ‘submerg[ed] in a larger white voting
    population.’”).
    34 
    Abbott, 138 S. Ct. at 2332
    (citing LULAC v. Perry, 
    548 U.S. 399
    , 425–26 (2006)).
    11
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    to present further evidence, and no party has brought this argument of no
    notice to the Court.
    Plaintiffs contend that even if Anglo voters are no more likely to elect a
    second Anglo commissioner under their alternative map, they will have
    enhanced influence over multiple districts. Plaintiffs acknowledge that § 2
    does not require the creation of these “influence districts.” 35 However, they
    contend that “this Court has never said that once the Gingles factors are
    otherwise met, a minority group’s ability to influence an election is irrelevant
    to their opportunity ‘to participate in the political process and to elect
    representative of their choice.’”
    Perhaps, but this ability is not enough to establish a vote dilution claim.
    In Abbott, it was dispositive that plaintiffs’ alternative map did not provide
    Latinos with an improved opportunity to elect another Latino-preferred
    candidate. 36 The Supreme Court dismissed the vote dilution claim without
    considering whether an influence district could be created. 37 We are pointed to
    no case in which the ability to create an influence district was considered
    sufficient to establish a § 2 vote dilution claim.
    4.
    Plaintiffs argue that even if they need to show that a second Anglo-
    preferred candidate could be elected under an alternative map, the district
    court incorrectly applied the standard to the evidence. Specifically, they
    contend that the district court’s analysis of their alternative map was flawed
    for three reasons: (1) its failure to account for non-Anglo cross-over voting, (2)
    35 See Bartlett v. Strickland, 
    556 U.S. 1
    , 18 (2009) (plurality opinion).
    36 
    Abbott, 138 S. Ct. at 2333
    .
    37 
    Id. 12 Case:
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    its reliance on estimates produced using exogenous elections, and (3) its failure
    to properly consider the “totality of the circumstances.”
    1. Plaintiffs assert that the district court accounted for Anglo cross-over
    voting for Democratic candidates but did not consider non-Anglo cross-over
    voting for Republican candidates. 38 But the district court relied on estimates
    of election outcomes that accounted for all Dallas voters, including non-Anglo
    cross-over voters.
    Plaintiffs next insist that the court failed to consider other relevant
    factors, such as differences in voter turnout or the identity of specific
    candidates. Of course, turnout, the candidates’ identity, and many other
    factors could undermine the accuracy of the predictions. But Plaintiffs offered
    no evidence that they did undermine their accuracy. More to the point, the
    burden remains upon Plaintiffs to provide evidence that Anglos could elect a
    second Republican commissioner. Yet as the district court found, “plaintiffs did
    not offer any evidence at trial that would show how Republican candidates
    would fare in commissioner elections under their Remedial Plan,” and the
    Defendants did.
    2. Plaintiffs urge that the district court should not have relied on “two
    cherry-picked examples from exogenous elections in an unusual year . . . .” 39
    Angle, one of Defendants’ expert witnesses, estimated the performance of
    Plaintiffs’ alternative map by using the election returns from the 2016
    38 Cross-over voting occurs when a voter supports the candidate that is not preferred
    by the majority of the voter’s racial group—for example, a Hispanic voter who votes for a
    Republican candidate.
    39 Exogenous elections are “elections in a district for positions that are not exclusively
    representative of that district.” Rodriguez v. Harris Cty., 
    964 F. Supp. 2d 686
    , 759 (S.D. Tex.
    2013), aff’d sub nom. Gonzalez v. Harris Cty., 601 F. App’x 255 (5th Cir. 2015).
    13
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    presidential election and 2016 Dallas County sheriff’s election. These
    exogenous elections, Plaintiffs argue, are not predictive of behavior in future
    local elections. Although this Court has “unequivocally stat[ed] that evidence
    from elections for the office at issue is more probative,” it has “not bar[red]
    limited consideration of exogenous elections” as here. 40
    3. Pivoting again, Plaintiffs contend that the close defeats of Anglo-
    preferred candidates prove that their alternative plan gives Anglo voters the
    chance to elect another Republican commissioner. Under the Plaintiffs’
    alternative map, the Anglo-preferred candidate would lose 49.4% to 50.6% in
    District 2 and 49.2% to 50.8% in District 4. Yet as the district court noted,
    “plaintiffs offered no evidence or analysis of any election using their proposed
    Remedial Plan,” a burden theirs to carry. “Any lack of evidence in the record
    regarding a violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 must be attributed to
    [plaintiffs], not to the district court.” 41 We are not “left with the definite and
    firm conviction that a mistake has been committed . . . .” 42
    B.
    At the hearing on summary judgment, the district court concluded that
    there was no racial gerrymandering claim in the case—that it was “pleaded as
    40  
    Fordice, 252 F.3d at 374
    (internal citation omitted).
    41  League of United Latin Am. Citizens #4552 (LULAC) v. Roscoe Indep. Sch. Dist.,
    
    123 F.3d 843
    , 846 (5th Cir. 1997).
    42 Anderson v. Bessemer City, 
    470 U.S. 564
    , 573 (1985).
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    [an intentional] vote dilution claim, and nothing more.” Plaintiffs challenge
    that decision.
    A racial gerrymandering claim is “analytically distinct” from an
    intentional vote dilution claim. 43 The Supreme Court explained the difference
    in Miller v. Johnson:
    Whereas [an intentional] vote dilution claim alleges that the
    [government] has enacted a particular voting scheme as a
    purposeful device to maintain or cancel out the voting potential of
    racial or ethnic minorities, an action disadvantaging a particular
    race, the essence of [a racial gerrymandering claim] . . . is that the
    [government] has used race as a basis for separating voters into
    districts. 44
    To prove an intentional vote dilution claim, a plaintiff must show a
    discriminatory purpose and discriminatory effect. 45 Redistricting plans are
    unconstitutional if “conceived or operated as purposeful devices to further
    racial discrimination by minimizing, cancelling out or diluting the voting
    strength of racial elements in the voting population.” 46 Because intentional
    vote dilution claims are infrequently asserted, “[t]he role that § 2 and Gingles
    play in intentional vote dilution claims as opposed to results-only claims is
    somewhat unsettled.” 47 By contrast, a racial gerrymandering claim establishes
    “that race was improperly used in the drawing of the boundaries of one or more
    43 Shaw v. Reno, 
    509 U.S. 630
    , 652 (1993).
    44 
    515 U.S. 900
    , 911 (1995) (internal quotations omitted).
    45 Vill. of Arlington Heights v. Metro. Hous. Dev. Corp., 
    429 U.S. 252
    , 266 (1977).
    46 Rogers v. Lodge, 
    458 U.S. 613
    , 617 (1982).
    47 Perez v. Abbott, 
    253 F. Supp. 3d 864
    , 942 (W.D. Tex. 2017). Because a § 2 vote
    dilution claim can be proven without a showing of intentional discrimination, few voters have
    asserted intentional vote dilution claims since “the 1982 amendments to the Voting Rights
    Act made effects a basis for section 2 liability.” Veasey v. Abbott, 
    830 F.3d 216
    , 335 n.15 (5th
    Cir. 2016) (Costa, J., dissenting in part).
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    specific electoral districts.” 48 In such cases, race must have been “the
    predominant factor motivating” the redistricting process and “subordinat[ing]
    traditional race-neutral districting principles, including but not limited to
    compactness, contiguity, and respect for political subdivisions or communities
    defined by actual shared interests[.]” 49
    The complaint contained an “Equal Protection” claim arising under the
    Fourteenth Amendment. In support, the complaint’s statement of the claim for
    relief stated:
    The facts alleged constitute a denial to the Plaintiffs of rights
    guaranteed by the Equal Protection Clause of Section 1 of the 14th
    Amendment to the United States Constitution. The
    Commissioners Court crafted the Discriminating Map and each of
    its four (4) component CCDs to purposefully fragment Dallas’s
    Anglos, dispersing them among the four (4) CCDs without regard
    to traditional, neutral redistricting principles. The Commissioners
    Court designed the Discriminating Map to reduce and lesson
    Dallas’s Anglos’ electoral opportunities significantly below the
    level of opportunities that would have been available under a map
    compliant with neutral principles. This fragmentation provides
    undue voting advantages to Dallas’s non-Anglo, ethnic-bloc-voting
    majority. The Discriminating Map was intentionally crafted to
    allow Dallas’s ethnic majority coalition to dominate the
    Commissioners Court beyond what their voting power and
    geographic distribution would otherwise suggest and to deny
    Dallas’s Anglos the chance to meaningfully participate in the
    choice of any commissioner outside of CCD 2.
    As Plaintiffs note in their brief, their complaint also stated: “[R]ace was
    the predominant factor in the Commissioners Court’s crafting of the
    48Ala. Legislative Black Caucus v. Alabama, 
    135 S. Ct. 1257
    , 1265 (2015).
    
    49Miller, 515 U.S. at 916
    . “[I]f racial considerations predominated over others, . . . the
    State [must] prove that its race-based sorting of voters serves a ‘compelling interest’ and is
    ‘narrowly tailored’ to that end.” 
    Cooper, 137 S. Ct. at 1464
    . The Supreme Court has assumed
    that complying with the Voting Rights Act is a compelling interest. 
    Id. 16 Case:
    18-11256     Document: 00515276497       Page: 17    Date Filed: 01/17/2020
    No. 18-11256
    Discriminating Map as a whole and in the design of each of the Discriminating
    Map’s component four (4) CCDs.” This statement is not found in the claim for
    relief. Rather, it came five pages earlier and was incorporated by reference into
    the Equal Protection claim. In Plaintiffs’ view, these allegations are enough to
    state a racial gerrymandering claim.
    The district court, however, concluded that Plaintiffs pled an intentional
    vote   dilution   claim,    not   the   analytically    distinct   claim    of   racial
    gerrymandering. A racial gerrymandering claim (often called a Shaw claim) is
    distinct and far from subtle in its demands, and Plaintiffs gave no notice that
    it was being urged. Almost three years before the summary judgment ruling,
    Defendants in their motion to dismiss had flagged a possible effort to make the
    complaint: “To the extent Plaintiffs purport to make a racial gerrymandering
    claim, they also fail to state a claim. . . .” Plaintiffs responded but did not clarify
    their complaint; rather, they labeled the relevant portion of their response
    “Analysis of a 14th Amendment, Vote-Dilution Claim.” The district court
    dismissed the motion, concluding that Plaintiffs had pled “plausible claims
    under the Voting Rights Act and the Equal Protection Clause.” One month
    later, Plaintiffs amended their complaint but did not clarify that they were
    pursuing a racial gerrymandering claim. Nor did they clarify in subsequent
    briefing. After summary judgment, Plaintiffs did not seek leave to add a racial
    gerrymandering claim to their complaint. Given the distinctive character of a
    Shaw claim, that failure alone is sufficient to reject this claim.
    All the same, the district court’s decision was correct: Plaintiffs did not
    plead a racial gerrymandering claim. The decision of the three-judge district
    17
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    No. 18-11256
    court in Perez v. Abbott is instructive. 50 The court concluded that two different
    complaints failed to state racial gerrymandering claims. The first failed
    primarily because the “Fourteenth Amendment claims [were] couched only in
    terms of intentional discrimination and vote dilution.” 51 The complaint also
    failed to cite key racial gerrymandering cases, like Shaw v. Reno 52 or Miller v.
    Johnson, 53 or to “specifically argue a racial gerrymandering claim.” 54 Nor was
    it enough that “a substantial amount of the evidence relevant to the intentional
    discrimination claims also supports a finding of unconstitutional racial
    gerrymandering.” 55
    The second complaint was equally deficient. 56 It alleged that “Latino and
    African American voters in Dallas and Tarrant Counties have been splintered
    and fragmented in both 2011 and 2013 to diminish their ability to effectively
    participate in the political process[.]” 57 But the court found that “these
    allegations appear[ed] to support only their intentional vote dilution claim[.]” 58
    The court did conclude, however, that a third complaint in Perez “clearly
    pleaded” a racial gerrymandering claim. 59 But that claim was not contested,
    and the complaint alleged seven times that race predominated in different
    districts. The actual claim for relief consisted of only a substantive sentence
    and a clause incorporating prior allegations by reference.
    50 
    253 F. Supp. 3d 864
    (W.D. Tex. 2017).
    51 
    Perez, 253 F. Supp. 3d at 932
    –34.
    52 
    509 U.S. 630
    .
    53 
    515 U.S. 900
    .
    54 
    Perez, 253 F. Supp. 3d at 932
    .
    55 
    Id. 56 Id.
    at 933.
    57 
    Id. (internal quotation
    omitted).
    58 
    Id. 59 Id.
    18
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    No. 18-11256
    The complaint before us only once alleged that race predominated, and
    it made this allegation five pages before stating the claim for relief. Moreover,
    unlike the brief claim for relief in the third complaint in Perez, the Plaintiffs’
    claim for relief was substantial, spanning fifteen lines of text. It did not
    mention Shaw, Miller, or any other racial gerrymandering cases. And though
    some of the allegations in the claim for relief are consistent with both vote
    dilution and racial gerrymandering claims, allegations that are merely
    consistent with a claim provide anemic notice that cannot be seen as sufficient.
    Plaintiffs, aware of the uncertainty flagged by Defendants, never sought leave
    to amend at any stage of the case. We therefore hold that Plaintiffs did not
    plead a Shaw claim.
    VII.
    We affirm the district court’s refusal to entertain a claim of racial
    gerrymandering and its denial of the vote dilution claim after trial.
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    No. 18-11256
    JAMES C. HO, Circuit Judge, concurring in part and dissenting in part:
    In Abbott v. Perez, 
    138 S. Ct. 2305
    (2018), the Supreme Court increased
    the evidentiary burden on plaintiffs in vote dilution cases under Section 2 of
    the Voting Rights Act. I agree with the majority that, based on the evidence
    presented at trial, the vote dilution claim in this case fails under Perez.
    But Perez was not decided until after the close of trial in this case.
    Plaintiffs should have the opportunity on remand to meet the new evidentiary
    standard announced in Perez. For that reason, I respectfully dissent.
    ***
    For decades, the Supreme Court has applied a two-prong test to assess
    vote dilution claims under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, 52 U.S.C.
    § 10301. See Thornburg v. Gingles 
    478 U.S. 30
    , 50–51 (1986). First, the
    plaintiff must satisfy three threshold conditions, commonly known as the
    Gingles factors: (1) the racial minority group must be “sufficiently large and
    geographically compact to constitute a majority in a single member district,”
    (2) that minority group must be “politically cohesive,” and (3) the majority must
    vote as a bloc such that it can “usually . . . defeat the minority’s preferred
    candidate.” 
    Id. at 50–51.
    See also LULAC v. Perry, 
    548 U.S. 399
    , 425–26
    (2006) (same). Second, if the plaintiff satisfies all three Gingles factors, she
    must then demonstrate that vote dilution has occurred under the totality of
    the circumstances test set forth by the Court—in essence, whether a history of
    racial discrimination exists in the relevant jurisdiction. 
    Id. at 426.
          Prior to Perez, the Court made clear that, once a plaintiff is able to meet
    the three Gingles factors, the vote dilution claim proceeds to the totality of the
    circumstances test. “If all three Gingles requirements are established, the
    statutory text directs us to consider the ‘totality of circumstances.’” 
    Id. at 425
    (quoting Johnson v. De Grandy, 
    512 U.S. 997
    , 1011 (1994)). And the totality
    20
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    No. 18-11256
    of the circumstances test is not arduous—once the Gingles factors are met,
    courts will have “good reason to believe that § 2 requires drawing a majority-
    minority district.” Cooper v. Harris, 
    137 S. Ct. 1455
    , 1470 (2017). See also
    Clark v. Calhoun County, 
    21 F.3d 92
    , 97 (5th Cir. 1994) (“[I]t will be only the
    very unusual case in which the plaintiffs can establish the existence of the
    three Gingles factors but still have failed to establish a violation of § 2 under
    the totality of the circumstances”).
    The reason for this framework is simple: Once a plaintiff is able to
    satisfy the three Gingles factors, courts are satisfied that the minority group
    will have the opportunity to elect a representative of its choice. See, e.g.,
    
    Harris, 137 S. Ct. at 1470
    (“Those three showings . . . are needed to establish
    that the ‘minority [group] has the potential to elect a representative of its own
    choice.’”) (quoting Growe v. Emison, 
    507 U.S. 25
    , 40 (1993)).
    Perez alters this framework. In addition to the three Gingles factors,
    Plaintiffs must survive an additional inquiry before reaching the totality of the
    circumstances test. Plaintiffs must now affirmatively prove that the minority
    group will have a “real” opportunity to elect representatives of its choice. 
    Perez, 138 S. Ct. at 2333
    .
    So after Perez, it is no longer enough for plaintiffs to draw a proposed
    district that satisfies the three Gingles factors. It must additionally prove that
    the proposed district will in fact perform as plaintiffs hope.
    This performance requirement is new.            No prior Supreme Court
    precedent required evidence of performance prior to Perez—nor have the
    parties or the district court cited any. See also 
    Perez, 138 S. Ct. at 2358
    (Sotomayor, J., dissenting) (criticizing majority for requiring evidence of
    performance); cf. Richard L. Hasen, Suppression of Minority Voting Rights Is
    About to Get Way Worse, SLATE (June 25, 2018), (“[I]n a pretty brief but
    21
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    No. 18-11256
    significant part of the majority opinion, the court in Abbott seems to make it
    harder for plaintiffs to win cases under Section 2.”), https://slate.com/news-
    and-politics/2018/06/the-abbott-v-perez-case-echoes-shelby-county-v-holder-
    as-a-further-death-blow-for-the-voting-rights-act.html.
    In this case, the district court denied Plaintiffs’ vote dilution claim based
    on Perez. It held that Plaintiffs satisfied the first Gingles factor and presumed
    that they satisfied the second and third factors as well. It nevertheless rejected
    Plaintiffs’ vote dilution claim—not under the totality of the circumstance test,
    but because Plaintiffs failed to prove performance. See Harding v. County of
    Texas, 
    336 F. Supp. 3d 677
    , 694–95 (N.D. Tex. 2018) (“[A]ssum[ing] that
    plaintiffs have satisfied each of the three Gingles prongs, the court still finds
    that they have failed to prove the ultimate question of vote dilution under § 2
    because they have not proved that the minority group (i.e., Anglos) has the
    potential to elect a Republican, which plaintiffs maintain would be the Anglo
    candidate of choice.”) (cleaned up).
    The district court reached this conclusion, however, despite the fact that
    Perez was not decided until after the close of trial. I would remand to give the
    parties the opportunity to submit evidence under Perez.
    ***
    The act of redrawing an electoral district is an inherently politicized
    matter. So courts naturally proceed with extreme caution before intervening—
    indeed, three members of the Supreme Court have suggested that courts
    should not decide vote dilution claims under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act
    at all.   See 
    Perez, 138 S. Ct. at 2335
    (Thomas, J., joined by Gorsuch, J.,
    concurring); Holder v. Hall, 
    512 U.S. 874
    , 946 (1994) (Thomas, J., joined by
    Scalia, J., concurring in the judgment). The majority’s reluctance to permit
    further proceedings on Plaintiffs’ vote dilution claim is thus appropriate.
    22
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    No. 18-11256
    But Plaintiffs here have not had the opportunity to prove their case with
    full notice of the evidentiary standards that will govern their claim. I take no
    position on how their claim would be resolved on remand. But there is enough
    here to warrant further review under the new governing standard. 1
    For these reasons, I would remand for further proceedings on Plaintiffs’
    Section 2 vote dilution claim. I respectfully dissent in part.
    1 Consider, for example, the racially charged comments in the record to date—a record
    that includes comments by one powerful county commissioner that “all of you are white, go
    to hell,” as well as the disparaging description of his fellow county commissioner (the one
    whose very district is at issue in this case) as “Honey Boo Boo.” Consider also that
    Defendants’ evidence of non-performance to date is less than compelling—close margins from
    only two exogenous races during an anomalous election cycle. See Majority Op. 14 (denying
    claim on the ground that “the Anglo-preferred candidate would lose 49.4% to 50.6% in District
    2 and 49.2% to 50.8% in District 4”); NAACP v. Fordice, 
    252 F.3d 361
    , 374 (5th Cir. 2001)
    (instructing courts to make only “limited” use of “exogenous election” data). Remand would
    provide both sides full and fair opportunity to strengthen their evidence in light of Perez.
    23