David Anaya v. Bobby Lumpkin, Director ( 2020 )


Menu:
  • Case: 18-11203      Document: 00515579388          Page: 1     Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    United States Court of Appeals
    for the Fifth Circuit
    United States Court of Appeals
    Fifth Circuit
    FILED
    September 25, 2020
    No. 18-11203                            Lyle W. Cayce
    Clerk
    David Abram Anaya,
    Petitioner—Appellant,
    versus
    Bobby Lumpkin, Director, Texas Department of Criminal Justice,
    Correctional Institutions Division,
    Respondent—Appellee.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of Texas
    USDC No. 2:15-CV-234
    Before Barksdale, Haynes, and Willett, Circuit Judges.
    Don R. Willett, Circuit Judge:
    David Anaya was charged with murder and aggravated assault. He
    rejected the State’s plea deal and opted instead for a jury trial. He didn’t deny
    that he shot the victim. He insisted instead that he fired in self-defense. But
    Anaya’s lawyer did not tell Anaya that, because he was a felon in possession
    of a weapon, the jury could consider his failure to retreat under Texas law.
    So now Anaya brings a habeas claim for ineffective assistance of counsel. The
    district court denied Anaya relief. Because of the rigorous deference we owe
    the state court’s judgment on collateral review, we AFFIRM.
    Case: 18-11203     Document: 00515579388           Page: 2   Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    I
    Late one night in Potter County, Texas, a group of five teenagers
    heard gunshots as they were leaving a club. They ran to their car, where they
    found a man, beaten and bloody, leaning up against it. One of the teens threw
    the man off the car so they could leave.
    David Anaya left the same club at about the same time. He noticed a
    crowd in the parking lot and saw “flashes of a gun in the air.” A group was
    “pounding on somebody with their feet.” Anaya went to investigate. By the
    time Anaya got close enough to the scene, he found his brother on the ground,
    brutally beaten, wounded, and bleeding. Anaya gathered his brother, put him
    in the front seat of his car, and put his brother’s gun in the console. Anaya
    wanted to leave before police arrived because he was on parole.
    While driving down Amarillo Boulevard, Anaya pulled up alongside
    the car full of teens from the club. One of the teens testified that Anaya
    accused them of attacking his brother. Anaya says that the front passenger in
    the other car was making “aggressive gestures” and that someone in the back
    seat pointed a gun at Anaya through the window. Anaya then fired his
    brother’s gun at them, he claims, in self-defense. One of the teen passengers
    was struck in the temple and died. The police recovered a black toy gun from
    the teenagers’ car, but the owner of the toy gun denied having brandished it.
    An investigator testified that the toy gun resembled a semi-automatic gun—
    its blue and orange coloring had been scratched off to make it look real.
    The State offered Anaya a plea bargain: 30 years for murder and 15
    years for aggravated assault. Anaya did not deny the underlying facts in the
    2
    Case: 18-11203          Document: 00515579388             Page: 3   Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    indictment but claimed he was acting in self-defense. So Anaya’s discussions
    with his lawyer, Rus Bailey, centered on the viability of a self-defense claim at
    trial. That was Anaya’s only defense. The State provided Bailey with a list of
    Anaya’s convictions and made clear it planned to use those convictions at trial
    to enhance Anaya’s punishment. Because of those prior convictions, at the
    time of the shooting, Anaya was a felon in possession of a firearm. This meant
    that the jury could consider Anaya’s failure to retreat in evaluating the
    reasonableness of his actions. 1
    The jury convicted Anaya of both assault and felony murder. He was
    sentenced to 40 and 99 years, respectively. Anaya appealed, and the state
    intermediate appellate court affirmed. The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals
    refused Anaya’s petitions for review. And he did not seek certiorari from the
    Supreme Court of the United States.
    Anaya pursued an ineffective assistance of counsel claim in three state
    habeas proceedings, the last dismissed as successive. The TCCA denied
    relief, and the Supreme Court denied certiorari. 2 All of Anaya’s state habeas
    petitions were denied without written orders. Anaya applied to the federal
    district court for habeas relief. 3 The district court adopted the magistrate
    judge’s written findings, conclusions, and recommendation—the only
    written opinion in Anaya’s habeas proceedings—and denied a Certificate of
    1
    Tex. Penal Code Ann. § 9.32(c), (d).
    2
    Anaya v. Texas, 
    136 S. Ct. 195
    (2015).
    3
    See 28 U.S.C. § 2254.
    3
    Case: 18-11203          Document: 00515579388               Page: 4        Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    Appealability. We granted Anaya a COA on one issue: Anaya’s ineffective
    assistance of counsel claim that his counsel misdescribed the law of self-
    defense, which impaired Anaya’s ability to make an informed decision on the
    viability of his only defense and the State’s plea offer.
    II
    When a state court denies a habeas application without a written
    order—as is the case here—that decision is an adjudication on the merits
    subject to deference under 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d). 4 When a district court
    denies a § 2254 application, we review the district court’s findings of fact for
    clear error and its conclusions of law de novo, “applying the same standard
    of review to the state court’s decision as the district court.” 5 We also review
    mixed questions of law and fact de novo. 6
    To obtain relief under § 2254(d), Anaya must establish that the state
    court’s adjudication of his claim “resulted in a decision that was contrary to,
    or involved an unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law,
    as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States” or “resulted in a
    decision that was based on an unreasonable determination of the facts in light
    of the evidence presented in the State court proceeding.” 7
    4
    Register v. Thaler, 
    681 F.3d 623
    , 626 n.8 (5th Cir. 2012).
    5
    Robertson v. Cain, 
    324 F.3d 297
    , 301 (5th Cir. 2003) (citation omitted).
    6
    Id. 7 28
    U.S.C. § 2254(d).
    4
    Case: 18-11203           Document: 00515579388               Page: 5   Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    III
    The Sixth Amendment right to counsel extends to the plea-bargaining
    process, where defendants are “entitled to the effective assistance of
    competent counsel.” 8 In fact, we have “observed that providing counsel to
    assist a defendant in deciding whether to plead guilty is ‘one of the most
    precious applications of the Sixth Amendment.’” 9 That’s because the
    overwhelming majority of federal and state convictions are the result of guilty
    pleas. 10 The Supreme Court has repeatedly reminded us that, because our
    criminal justice system has become “for the most part a system of pleas, not
    a system of trials,” the “critical point for a defendant” is often plea
    negotiation, not trial. 11 And because “horse trading between prosecutor and
    defense counsel determines who goes to jail and for how long,” plea
    bargaining “is not some adjunct to the criminal justice system; it is the
    criminal justice system.” 12
    Anaya’s ineffective assistance of counsel claim—based on Bailey’s
    advice at plea bargaining—is governed by the two-part test established in
    8
    Lafler v. Cooper, 
    566 U.S. 156
    , 162 (2012) (quoting McMann v. Richardson, 
    397 U.S. 759
    , 771 (1970)).
    9
    United States v. Rivas-Lopez, 
    678 F.3d 353
    , 356 (5th Cir. 2012) (cleaned up)
    (quoting United States v. Grammas, 
    376 F.3d 433
    , 436 (5th Cir. 2004)).
    10
    Missouri v. Frye, 
    566 U.S. 134
    , 143 (2012) (“Ninety-seven percent of federal
    convictions and ninety-four percent of state convictions are the result of guilty pleas.”).
    11
    Id. at 143–44
    (quoting 
    Lafler, 566 U.S. at 170
    ).
    12
    Id. (emphasis in original)
    (quoting Scott & Stuntz, Plea Bargaining as Contract,
    101 Yale L.J. 1909, 1912 (1992)).
    5
    Case: 18-11203            Document: 00515579388              Page: 6         Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    Strickland v. Washington. 13 Under Strickland, a defendant who claims
    ineffective assistance of counsel must show: (1) “that counsel’s
    representation fell below an objective standard of reasonableness,” 14 and
    (2) that the deficiency was “prejudicial to the defense.” 15 The inquiry is
    highly deferential to counsel. 16 And in the habeas context, we do not start
    with a clean slate but must give deference to the state court under
    § 2254(d). 17 We address each Strickland prong in turn, applying the requisite
    “doubly deferential” standard of review “that gives both the state court and
    the defense attorney the benefit of the doubt.” 18
    A
    First, the performance prong. To show deficient performance under
    Strickland, Anaya must show that Bailey “made errors so serious that counsel
    was not functioning as the ‘counsel’ guaranteed by the Sixth Amendment.” 19
    We must “indulge a strong presumption that counsel’s conduct falls within
    13
    See id. at 140.
    14
    
    466 U.S. 668
    , 688 (1984).
    15
    Id. at 692. 16
    
    Id. at 690 
    (“[C]ounsel is strongly presumed to have rendered adequate assistance
    and made all significant decisions in the exercise of reasonable professional judgment.”);
    see also Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. 170
    , 189 (2011).
    17
    See Mejia v. Davis, 
    906 F.3d 307
    , 315 (5th Cir. 2018) (citing Harrington v. Richter,
    
    562 U.S. 86
    , 105 (2011)).
    18
    Burt v. Titlow, 
    571 U.S. 12
    , 15 (2013) (citation omitted).
    19
    United States v. Kayode, 
    777 F.3d 719
    , 723 (5th Cir. 2014) (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 687
    ).
    6
    Case: 18-11203           Document: 00515579388             Page: 7       Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    the wide range of reasonable professional assistance.” 20 But counsel’s
    “[s]ilence” “on matters of great importance, even when answers are readily
    available,” is “fundamentally at odds with the critical obligation of counsel
    to advise the client of ‘the advantages and disadvantages of a plea
    agreement.’” 21 To be sure, in the habeas world of double deference, “‘the
    question is not whether counsel’s actions were reasonable,’ but ‘whether
    there is any reasonable argument that counsel satisfied Strickland’s
    deferential standard.’” 22 Anaya claims that Bailey was silent on a matter of
    great importance—Anaya’s entire defense—that would have radically
    altered his plea decision. We agree, and conclude there is no reasonable
    argument to the contrary.
    Under Texas’s self-defense statute, juries are generally prohibited
    from considering a defendant’s failure to retreat in assessing the
    reasonableness of his belief that deadly force was necessary. 23 But there are
    important caveats to that general rule. Relevant here, it only applies if the
    actor was “not engaged in criminal activity at the time the deadly force [wa]s
    used.” 24 If the actor was not engaged in criminal activity, the jury “may not
    20
    United States v. Kelly, 
    915 F.3d 344
    , 350 (5th Cir. 2019) (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 689
    ).
    21
    Padilla v. Kentucky, 
    559 U.S. 356
    , 370 (2010) (quoting Libretti v. United States,
    
    516 U.S. 29
    , 50–51 (1995)).
    22
    
    Mejia, 906 F.3d at 315
    (quoting 
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 105
    ).
    23
    Tex. Penal Code Ann. § 9.32(d).
    24
    Id. § 9.32(c) (emphasis
    added).
    7
    Case: 18-11203          Document: 00515579388            Page: 8   Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    consider whether the actor failed to retreat,” 25 and the actor’s belief that
    deadly force was necessary is “presumed to be reasonable.” 26 In contrast, if the
    defendant is engaged in criminal activity at the time force is used, the jury
    can consider his failure to retreat before using deadly force. 27 And such a
    person’s belief that deadly force was necessary is no longer presumed
    reasonable. 28
    At the time of the shooting, Anaya was engaged in criminal activity
    because he was a felon in possession of a firearm. As a result: (1) The jury was
    permitted to consider his failure to retreat and (2) his belief that deadly force
    was necessary was not presumed to be reasonable. The State made Anaya’s
    failure to retreat central to its case, contending that, because Anaya was
    driving a car when he fired his gun, he could have easily retreated.
    Anaya claims that his decision to reject the State’s plea offer turned
    on the viability of his self-defense claim. He admitted from the get-go that he
    shot the victim, so his whole theory rested on self-defense. Anaya claims that
    Bailey told him he had a “viable defense”—that Bailey would argue Anaya’s
    conduct was reasonable because Anaya thought his life was in danger. But
    Anaya avers that Bailey never informed him of the role his failure to retreat
    would play at trial under Texas law. In fact, Anaya claims, Bailey told him
    that “it did not matter or make a difference if [Anaya] had the ability to
    25
    Id. § 9.32(d) (emphasis
    added).
    26
    Id. § 9.32(b)(3) (emphasis
    added).
    27
    See
    id. § 9.32(c). 28
                   Id. § 9.32(b).
    8
    
    Case: 18-11203             Document: 00515579388                Page: 9   Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    retreat.” Anaya filed affidavits from himself, his wife, mother, and father—
    each of which supports his assertion that he would not have rejected the plea
    if he knew his failure to retreat would be presented to the jury. Bailey
    submitted a responsive affidavit and argued that it was Anaya’s decision to
    go to trial and that Bailey never guaranteed any result. But Bailey’s affidavit
    didn’t even attempt to refute the accusation that he failed to correctly inform
    Anaya about the role of retreat.
    Bailey’s understanding of the self-defense statute was clearly wrong.
    But was Bailey’s advice so gravely in error that he was acting outside the
    “wide range of reasonable professional assistance?” 29 Running throughout
    Strickland cases is a distinction between strategic choices, which are
    “virtually unchallengeable,” 30 and “[a]n attorney’s ignorance of a point of
    law.” 31 When ignorance of a key point of law is combined with failure to do
    basic research, that’s a “quintessential example of unreasonable
    performance under Strickland.” 32
    Our Strickland precedent in the context of plea negotiations is clear
    that a defendant must have “a full understanding of the risks of going to
    trial.” 33 Otherwise, “he is unable to make an intelligent choice of whether to
    29
    See 
    Kelly, 915 F.3d at 350
    .
    30
    
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 690
    .
    31
    Hinton v. Alabama, 
    571 U.S. 263
    , 274 (2014).
    32
    Id. 33
                      
    Grammas, 376 F.3d at 436
    (quoting Teague v. Scott, 
    60 F.3d 1167
    , 1171 (5th Cir.
    1995)).
    9
    Case: 18-11203           Document: 00515579388              Page: 10     Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    accept a plea or take his chances in court.” 34 Plea negotiations are full of high
    stakes and hard choices. Pitch perfect counsel is neither expected nor
    required. But having competent counsel means being “aware of the relevant
    circumstances and the likely consequences” of going to trial. 35 Counsel is
    deficient when a defendant charges onward to trial “with a grave
    misconception as to the very nature of the proceeding and possible
    consequences.” 36
    Anaya’s primary support is Padilla v. Kentucky. There, counsel told
    the defendant that he wouldn’t be deported if he pleaded guilty to drug
    distribution. 37 But the conviction required deportation, so his guilty plea
    made “deportation virtually mandatory.” 38 The Supreme Court found that,
    because the answer was readily available and the law was clear, counsel’s
    “duty to give correct advice [was] equally clear.” 39 Anaya also directs us to
    Lafler v. Cooper and Hinton v. Alabama. In Lafler, the defendant rejected a
    plea offer because his counsel advised him that “the prosecution would be
    unable to establish intent to murder [the victim] because she had been shot
    34
    Id. (quoting Teague, 60
    F.3d at 1171).
    35
    
    Rivas-Lopez, 678 F.3d at 356
    ; see also 
    Grammas, 376 F.3d at 436
    (“When the
    defendant lacks a full understanding of the risks of going to trial, he is unable to make an
    intelligent choice of whether to accept a plea or take his chances in court.” (quoting 
    Teague, 60 F.3d at 1171
    )).
    36
    Beckham v. Wainwright, 
    639 F.2d 262
    , 267 (5th Cir. Unit B Mar. 1981).
    37
    
    Padilla, 559 U.S. at 359
    .
    38
    Id. 39
                    Id. at 369.
    10
    
    Case: 18-11203            Document: 00515579388                 Page: 11          Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    below the waist.” 40 There, the Supreme Court did no analysis on the
    performance prong because all parties agreed that counsel was deficient. 41 In
    Hinton, the lawyer failed to request funding in order to replace an inadequate
    expert because the lawyer mistakenly believed he had received all of the
    funding he could get under Alabama law. 42 A “cursory investigation” would
    have revealed that he could be reimbursed for “any expenses reasonably
    incurred.” 43
    Here, Bailey’s performance was deficient and there can be no
    reasonable argument otherwise in light of Padilla, Lafler, and Hinton. 44 Anaya
    couldn’t fully understand the risks of rejecting the State’s plea offer because
    he didn’t know that his status as a felon in possession of a weapon would move
    the goalpost at trial. Bailey’s silence on a “matter[] of great importance” was
    “fundamentally at odds” with his critical obligation “to advise the client of
    ʻthe advantages and disadvantages of a plea agreement.’ ” 45 And Bailey’s
    failure to advise Anaya on the law of retreat wasn’t a strategic decision. There
    were no difficult questions about how much to investigate or how to balance
    
    40 566 U.S. at 161
    .
    41
    Id. at 163. 42 571
    U.S. at 274.
    43
    Id. 44
                     
    Mejia, 906 F.3d at 315
    (explaining 28 U.S.C. § 2254’s standard).
    45
    See 
    Padilla, 559 U.S. at 370
    (quoting 
    Libretti, 516 U.S. at 50
    –51); see also
    id. (noting that, under
    Strickland, there is “no relevant difference ‘between an act of
    commission and an act of omission.’ ” ( q u o t i n g S t r i c k l a n d , 4 6 6 U . S . a t 6 9 0 ) ) .
    11
    Case: 18-11203         Document: 00515579388               Page: 12       Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    competing evidence. 46 Bailey knew Anaya was a felon in possession of a
    weapon—thus engaged in criminal activity—and Bailey failed to advise
    Anaya of the crucial difference that fact would make at trial.
    Anaya’s whole defense was self-defense. This was the only issue at
    trial. And Bailey’s silence on a central component of the self-defense statute
    meant that Anaya couldn’t appreciate the extraordinary risks of passing up
    the State’s offer. Under Strickland’s performance prong, Bailey’s
    representation fell outside the “wide range of reasonable professional
    assistance.” 47 Under § 2254(d)’s standard, the contrary conclusion would be
    an unreasonable application of the Supreme Court’s precedent in Padilla,
    Lafler, and Hinton.
    B
    Now, the prejudice prong, viewed again with the requisite double
    deference. Here, Anaya’s claim fails. Under Strickland’s prejudice prong,
    Anaya must show that “there is a reasonable probability that, but for
    counsel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding would have been
    different.” 48 A “reasonable probability” is “a probability sufficient to
    46
    See 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 690
    –91.
    47
    
    Kelly, 915 F.3d at 350
    (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 689
    ).
    48
    
    Lafler, 566 U.S. at 163
    (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    ).
    12
    Case: 18-11203         Document: 00515579388              Page: 13   Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    undermine confidence in the outcome.” 49 It’s “less than a preponderance of
    the evidence.” 50
    In Missouri v. Frye, the Supreme Court established a three-part test for
    demonstrating prejudice in the context of a rejected plea offer. 51 The
    defendant must show that, but for his counsel’s error, there is a “reasonable
    probability” that (1) the defendant “would have accepted the earlier plea
    offer had [he] been afforded effective assistance of counsel”; (2) the “plea
    would have been entered without the prosecution canceling it or the trial
    court refusing to accept it, if they had the authority to exercise that discretion
    under state law”; and (3) “the end result of the criminal process would have
    been more favorable by reason of a plea to a lesser charge or a sentence of less
    prison time.” 52
    Here, the parties dispute what evidence is needed to demonstrate a
    reasonable probability that these three parts of the Frye test are satisfied.
    Anaya has compelling arguments, but ultimately the law is murky. Because
    it’s possible that “fairminded jurists could disagree” over what is required to
    49
    Dale v. Quarterman, 
    553 F.3d 876
    , 880 (5th Cir. 2008) (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 693
    –94).
    50
    Id. (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 693
    –94).
    51
    
    Frye, 566 U.S. at 147
    .
    52
    Id. 13
    Case: 18-11203          Document: 00515579388                  Page: 14   Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    demonstrate prejudice under Frye, Anaya cannot surmount the hurdle of
    § 2254(d). 53
    We address each part of Frye’s prejudice test in turn.
    1
    First, would Anaya have accepted the plea offer? Anaya argues that
    his unrebutted affidavit testimony is sufficient to show a reasonable
    probability he would have accepted the plea but for his counsel’s erroneous
    advice. According to the State, the Supreme Court made clear in Lee v.
    United States that this standard cannot be met based purely on “post hoc
    assertions from a defendant about how he would have pleaded but for his
    attorney’s deficiencies.” 54 Rather, courts must “look to contemporaneous
    evidence to substantiate a defendant’s expressed preferences.” 55 So, the
    State argues, Anaya’s affidavits aren’t competent evidence.
    But the State takes the above quotes from Lee out of context. The full
    context makes clear that Lee imposed standards for overturning an accepted
    plea deal, not standards for obligating the government to offer again a plea
    rejected by the defendant. Here’s the Lee language in context:
    Surmounting Strickland’s high bar is never an easy task, and
    the strong societal interest in finality has special force with
    respect to convictions based on guilty pleas. Courts should not
    upset a plea solely because of post hoc assertions from a
    53
    See 
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 102
    (explaining that § 2254(d) “preserves authority
    to [provide habeas relief] in cases where there is no possibility fairminded jurists could
    disagree that the state court’s decision conflicts with [the Supreme Court’s] precedents”).
    54
    
    137 S. Ct. 1958
    , 1967 (2017).
    55
    Id. 14
    Case: 18-11203         Document: 00515579388             Page: 15   Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    defendant about how he would have pleaded but for his
    attorney’s deficiencies. Judges should instead look to
    contemporaneous evidence to substantiate a defendant’s
    expressed preferences. 56
    The State argues that the same considerations should apply to a
    defendant, like Anaya, who rejected his plea. But the State is wrong. We can’t
    export the Lee standard—the need for contemporaneous evidence—from the
    context of “convictions based on guilty pleas.” Here’s why: The standard
    for evaluating a Strickland claim when the defendant seeks to upset a guilty
    plea was first laid out in 1985 in Hill v. Lockhart. 57 But, in 2012, the Supreme
    Court issued two opinions on the same day—Lafler v. Cooper and Missouri v.
    Frye—that governed Strickland analysis in the context of rejected plea offers.
    In Frye, the Court was careful to note that Hill was still good law when applied
    to upsetting convictions based on accepted pleas. 58 But the Court explicitly
    disavowed a single “means for demonstrating prejudice . . . during plea
    negotiations.” 59 And the Court formulated a new, unique prejudice test for
    our context here—rejected pleas. 60 The Court’s application of that new
    prejudice standard in Lafler makes clear that Lee is inapposite.
    In Lafler, the Supreme Court didn’t do its own prejudice analysis;
    instead, the Court relied on the Sixth Circuit’s reasoning under the prejudice
    56
    Id. (emphasis added) (cleaned
    up).
    57
    
    474 U.S. 52
    (1985).
    58
    
    Frye, 566 U.S. at 148
    .
    59
    Id. 60
                   Id.
    15
    
    Case: 18-11203         Document: 00515579388              Page: 16       Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    prong. 61 There, the defendant relied only on his “uncontradicted” testimony
    that “had he known that a conviction for assault with intent to commit
    murder was possible, he would have accepted the state’s offer.” 62 And the
    Sixth Circuit rejected Michigan’s argument—identical to the State’s
    argument here—that the defendant “cannot show prejudice with his own
    ‘self-serving statement.’” 63 Moreover, the Sixth Circuit explained that even
    if the defendant’s assertion needed independent corroboration, the
    “significant disparity between the prison sentence under the plea offer and
    exposure after trial lends credence to petitioner’s claims.” 64 The same is true
    here. And this rationale was affirmed by the Supreme Court.
    Plus, if the Lee Court wanted to augment the prejudice test articulated
    in Frye and Lafler, one would expect the Court to have connected the dots.
    But Lee—decided five years after Lafler and Frye—didn’t even cite Frye and
    only once cited Lafler. The Lee dissent, however, heavily discussed both. And
    the majority responded in a footnote:
    The dissent also relies heavily on [Frye and Lafler]. Those cases
    involved defendants who alleged that, but for their attorney’s
    incompetence, they would have accepted a plea deal—not, as
    here and as in Hill, that they would have rejected a plea. In both
    Frye and Lafler, the Court highlighted this difference . . . . Frye
    and Lafler articulated a different way to show prejudice, suited
    61
    
    Lafler, 566 U.S. at 174
    .
    62
    Cooper v. Lafler, 376 F. App’x 563, 571 (6th Cir. 2010) (unpublished).
    63
    Id. 64
                   Id.
    16
    
    Case: 18-11203          Document: 00515579388               Page: 17        Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    to the context of pleas not accepted, not an additional element
    to the Hill inquiry. 65
    Lee affirmed what Frye and Lafler made clear: Accepted and rejected pleas arise
    in different contexts and require distinct tests. So Lee’s requirement for
    contemporaneous evidence is simply irrelevant in this context. There may be
    other reasons to doubt Anaya’s affidavits, but their non-contemporaneous
    nature is not a problem under Frye and Lafler. Anaya could potentially satisfy
    part one of Frye’s prejudice test with the affidavits he has provided.
    2
    On to part two: Would the plea have been entered? Under this part of
    Frye’s test, Anaya must demonstrate that his “plea would have been entered
    without the prosecution canceling it or the trial court refusing to accept it, if
    they had the authority to exercise that discretion under state law.” 66 The
    district court concluded that the record was “silent” on these two questions,
    so Anaya failed to show a reasonable probability that this part of the Frye
    prejudice test was satisfied. And this is where the law gets too murky for
    Anaya to convincingly demonstrate an unreasonable application of federal
    law. Anaya argues that part two of Frye’s prejudice test is satisfied if there is
    no “particular fact” or “intervening circumstance” that would cast doubt on
    65
    
    Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1965
    n.1 (emphasis in original); see also 
    Lafler, 566 U.S. at 163
    –
    64 (“In contrast to Hill, here the ineffective advice led not to an offer’s acceptance but to
    its rejection. Having to stand trial, not choosing to waive it, is the prejudice alleged.”); 
    Frye, 566 U.S. at 148
    (“Hill does not, however, provide the sole means for demonstrating
    prejudice arising from the deficient performance of counsel during plea negotiations.”).
    66
    
    Frye, 566 U.S. at 147
    .
    17
    Case: 18-11203          Document: 00515579388        Page: 18    Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    the presumption that the prosecution would have maintained the offer and
    the court would have accepted it. His contention appears to be that his
    burden here is simply to point to the record and show the absence of these
    particular facts or intervening circumstances. The State’s primary response
    is that it is Anaya’s burden to show that the plea would have been entered.
    But Anaya doesn’t disagree with the State on who bears the burden; his fight
    is over what he needs to show to satisfy that burden. The State doesn’t
    propose an alternative theory or suggest what evidence would suffice, other
    than to argue that Anaya must provide affirmative proof that demonstrates
    there are no particular facts or intervening circumstances.
    The governing cases are not a paradigm of clarity. In Frye, the Court
    explained that if the prosecution has discretion to cancel an offer or if the trial
    court has discretion to refuse it, defendants must show “there is a reasonable
    probability neither the prosecution nor the trial court would have prevented
    the offer from being accepted or implemented.” 67 The Frye Court then
    provided a framework for conducting this inquiry:
    It can be assumed that in most jurisdictions prosecutors and
    judges are familiar with the boundaries of acceptable plea
    bargains and sentences. So in most instances it should not be
    difficult to make an objective assessment as to whether or not
    a particular fact or intervening circumstance would suffice, in the
    normal course, to cause prosecutorial withdrawal or judicial
    nonapproval of a plea bargain. The determination that there is
    or is not a reasonable probability that the outcome of the
    67
    Id. at 148. 18
    Case: 18-11203          Document: 00515579388                Page: 19    Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    proceeding would have been different absent counsel’s errors
    can be conducted within that framework. 68
    If this were a case involving a non-deferential standard of review, we would
    need to explore this question in more depth.
    However, we must apply the doubly deferential standard of § 2254(d)
    to our Strickland inquiry. And under § 2254(d), “an unreasonable application
    of federal law is different from an incorrect application.” 69 To obtain relief,
    Anaya must show that the state court’s ruling “was so lacking in justification
    that there was an error well understood and comprehended in existing law
    beyond any possibility for fairminded disagreement.” 70 As the Supreme
    Court has made clear, this standard is hard to meet “because it was meant to
    be.” 71 Section 2254(d) authorizes us to grant habeas relief only “in cases
    where there is no possibility fairminded jurists could disagree that the state
    court’s decision conflicts with [the Supreme Court’s] cases.” 72 That’s the
    extent of our authority. 73
    We had no trouble concluding that Anaya satisfied § 2254(d)’s heavy
    burden on Strickland’s performance prong. But here, assuming Anaya’s view
    of the Frye framework is correct, it is not “well understood and
    68
    Id. at 149
    (emphasis added).
    
    69 Will. v
    . Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 365 (2000) (emphasis in original).
    70
    
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 103
    .
    71
    Id. at 102. 72
                   Id.
    73
    
                   Id.
    19
    
    Case: 18-11203       Document: 00515579388              Page: 20      Date Filed: 09/25/2020
    No. 18-11203
    comprehended” that defendants bear no burden to supply affirmative proof
    that the prosecution would not withdraw the plea or that the court would
    have accepted it. Our own precedent is clear that Anaya carries the burden to
    make this showing. 74 But we have never articulated how a defendant does
    so—whether affirmative evidence is needed. And Anaya points to no
    published case from any circuit that absolves the defendant of the need to
    supply affirmative proof of some kind.
    Anaya has no doubt satisfied the third part of the Frye prejudice test—
    that “the end result of the criminal process would have been more favorable
    by reason of a plea to a lesser charge or a sentence of less prison time.” 75 But
    because the law on the burden of proof in part two of Frye’s prejudice test is
    not so clear as to foreclose the possibility of fairminded disagreement, we
    cannot grant Anaya the relief he requests.
    IV
    For these reasons, we AFFIRM.
    74
    
    Rivas-Lopez, 678 F.3d at 359
    (“[T]here is a burden on [defendant] to show that
    there was a reasonable probability that the prosecution would not have withdrawn the plea
    offer and that the court would have accepted its terms.”).
    75
    See 
    Frye, 566 U.S. at 147
    . Part three is easily satisfied here: The plea offered
    Anaya 30 years for murder and 15 for aggravated assault. His ultimate sentences were for
    40 years and 99 years respectively.
    20