Mark Jensen v. Marc Clements ( 2015 )


Menu:
  •                                In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    ____________________
    No. 14-1380
    MARK D. JENSEN,
    Petitioner-Appellee,
    v.
    MARC CLEMENTS,
    Respondent-Appellant.
    ____________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court for the
    Eastern District of Wisconsin.
    No. 11 CV 00803 — William C. Griesbach, Chief Judge.
    ____________________
    ARGUED OCTOBER 30, 2014 — DECIDED SEPTEMBER 8, 2015
    ____________________
    Before WILLIAMS, TINDER, and HAMILTON, Circuit Judges.
    WILLIAMS, Circuit Judge. Julie Jensen’s handwritten letter
    to the police was “a make or break issue,” an “essential
    component of the State’s case,” and of “extraordinary value”
    to “the central issue in this case.” Those are not the court’s
    words, but the words of the State, as it fought for the admis-
    sion of the letter before it placed Mark Jensen on trial for his
    2                                                   No. 14-1380
    wife Julie’s murder. The State maintained at trial that Jensen
    killed his wife and framed it to look like suicide. Jensen’s de-
    fense was that his wife, depressed, and unhappy in mar-
    riage, committed suicide and made it look like her husband
    had killed her. A key piece of evidence at trial was Julie’s
    handwritten letter to the police, written two weeks before
    her death, in which she wrote that she would never take her
    life and that her husband should be the suspect if anything
    should happen to her.
    As a later-decided United States Supreme Court case,
    Giles v. California, 
    554 U.S. 353
     (2008), made clear, this letter
    and other accusatory statements she made to police in the
    weeks before her death regarding her husband should never
    have been introduced at trial. The Wisconsin appellate court
    found the error in admission to be harmless. Jensen now
    seeks a writ of habeas corpus, which he may only receive if
    the Wisconsin appellate court’s adjudication of the claim
    “resulted in a decision that was contrary to, or involved an
    unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law,
    as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States,”
    or “resulted in a decision that was based on an unreasonable
    determination of the facts in light of evidence presented in
    the State court proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d). We agree
    with the district court that the Wisconsin appellate court’s
    harmless error determination reflects an unreasonable appli-
    cation of the Chapman v. California, 
    386 U.S. 18
     (1967), harm-
    less error standard. The erroneous admission of Julie’s letter
    and statements to the police had a substantial and injurious
    influence or effect in determining the jury’s verdict. So we
    affirm the district court’s grant of Jensen’s petition for a writ
    of habeas corpus.
    No. 14-1380                                                  3
    I. BACKGROUND
    Two weeks before her death, Julie Jensen gave a sealed
    envelope to her neighbors, Tadeusz and Margaret Wojt, and
    told them that if anything happened to her, they should give
    the envelope to the police. The day of Julie’s death, the Wojts
    did just that. The envelope contained a handwritten letter
    with Julie’s signature that read:
    Pleasant Prairie Police Department, Ron Kosman or
    Detective Ratzburg,
    I took this picture [and] am writing this on Saturday 11-
    21-98 at 7 AM. This “list” was in my husband’s busi-
    ness daily planner—not meant for me to see, I don’t
    know what it means, but if anything happens to me, he
    would be my first suspect. Our relationship has deteri-
    orated to the polite superficial. I know he’s never for-
    given me for the brief affair I had with that creep seven
    years ago. Mark lives for work [and] the kids; he’s an
    avid surfer of the Internet
    Anyway, I do not smoke or drink. My mother was an
    alcoholic, so I limit my drinking to one or two a week.
    Mark wants me to drink more—with him in the eve-
    nings. I don’t. I would never take my life because of my
    kids—they are everything to me! I regularly take Ty-
    lenol [and] multi-vitamins; occasionally take OTC stuff
    for colds, Zantac, or Immodium; have one prescription
    for migraine tablets, which Mark use[s] more than I.
    I pray I’m wrong [and] nothing happens … but I am
    suspicious of Mark’s behaviors [and] fear for my early
    demise. However, I will not leave David [and] Douglas.
    4                                                 No. 14-1380
    My life’s greatest love, accomplishment and wish: “My
    3 D’s”—Daddy (Mark), David, Douglas.
    Julie had made other similarly accusatory statements to
    the police in the weeks before her death as well. She left two
    voicemails for Officer Ron Kosman, stating in the second
    that she thought her husband was trying to kill her. (She left
    this message on a voicemail despite Officer Kosman’s mes-
    sage on his voicemail that he was out of the office on a hunt-
    ing trip and would not check messages until his return.) Of-
    ficer Kosman then visited Julie, and she told him she had
    given a letter to the Wojts along with a roll of film with pho-
    tographs she had taken of Jensen’s day planner, evidently to
    include the “list” in his planner referenced in her letter. She
    retrieved the film and gave it to Officer Kosman, but the po-
    lice were unable to connect the photographs of the pages of
    Jensen’s day planner to anything connected to the case. Julie
    also told Officer Kosman that if she were to be found dead,
    she did not commit suicide, and Jensen was her first suspect.
    She made statements to others as well including the Wojts
    and her son’s teacher that she worried her husband was go-
    ing to kill her.
    Julie was found dead in the home she shared with her
    husband and their two sons on December 3, 1998. The first
    autopsy did not reveal a cause of death, and the case was ini-
    tially treated as a suicide. A search of the Jensens’ home
    computer yielded internet searches for suicide and poison-
    ing, including a search at 7:40 am on December 3 for “eth-
    ylene glycol poisoning.” Ethylene glycol, commonly known
    as antifreeze, was found in Julie’s system. But the toxicolo-
    gist (Dr. Christopher Long)’s initial characterization was
    badly off. He described the 3,940 micrograms per milliliter of
    No. 14-1380                                                    5
    ethylene glycol in the 660 ml of her gastric contents as a
    “large concentration of ethylene glycol.” His report reached
    the conclusion that Julie’s death was not a suicide, and he
    reached this conclusion by relying on factors including that
    Julie’s stomach contained significant amounts of ethylene
    glycol, showing that her death occurred at or near the time
    of administration; she would have been too weak to drink
    the amount of ethylene glycol in her stomach without assis-
    tance; and she would have been too weak to hide the eth-
    ylene glycol container after her final dose. But in reality, the
    660 ml of her stomach contents contained only a half tea-
    spoon of ethylene glycol, or .083 ounces, so it was not a
    “large concentration.” Dr. Long’s mistake destroyed the
    foundation of his opinion that Julie’s death was not a sui-
    cide, i.e., that she could not have consumed that large a
    quantity of ethylene glycol on her own. The computer search
    also revealed numerous emails between Jensen and a wom-
    an with whom he was having an affair.
    In March 2002, over three years after Julie’s death, Jen-
    sen was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Dr.
    Mark Chambliss, the doctor who conducted an autopsy, said
    at trial for the first time that the cause of death was asphyxia
    by smothering, and a medical examiner concluded that the
    cause of death was ethylene glycol poisoning with probable
    terminal asphyxia. From the beginning, the parties contested
    the admissibility of Julie’s letter and her statements to Of-
    ficer Kosman in the weeks before her death. The State con-
    ceded that the voicemails Julie left for Officer Kosman were
    inadmissible hearsay. The Wisconsin state trial court ruled
    that Julie’s letter was admissible in its entirety. After the Su-
    preme Court decided Crawford v. Washington, 
    541 U.S. 36
    (2004), Jensen moved for reconsideration. The trial court
    6                                                          No. 14-1380
    granted Jensen’s motion for reconsideration, ruling that Ju-
    lie’s letter and statements to Officer Kosman were testimoni-
    al and therefore not admissible under Crawford because the
    declarant was unable to testify at trial and there was no prior
    opportunity for cross examination. The court also rejected
    the State’s argument that the letter and Julie’s statements
    were admissible under the doctrine of forfeiture by wrong-
    doing.
    The State appealed the trial court’s order and petitioned
    for bypass directly to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. On Feb-
    ruary 23, 2007, the Wisconsin Supreme Court agreed that the
    letter and statements to police were testimonial, but it also
    ruled that the trial court erred in its analysis of whether the
    statements were admissible under the forfeiture by wrong-
    doing doctrine. State v. Jensen, 
    727 N.W.2d 518
    , 536-37 (Wis.
    2007) (“Jensen I”). The Wisconsin Supreme Court adopted “a
    broad forfeiture by wrongdoing doctrine, and conclude[d]
    that if the State can prove by a preponderance of the evi-
    dence that the accused caused the absence of the witness, the
    forfeiture by wrongdoing doctrine will apply to the confron-
    tation rights of the defendant.” 
    Id. at 536
    . The court remand-
    ed for a hearing to determine the application of the doctrine
    in Jensen’s case. 
    Id. at 537
    .
    On remand, after a ten-day hearing, the trial court
    found by a preponderance of the evidence that Jensen killed
    Julie, causing her absence from trial, and so Jensen had for-
    feited his right to confrontation with respect to the letter. 1 As
    1 There are serious reasons to question this finding, however. For ex-
    ample, the medical examiner Dr. Mary Mainland testified for the State
    during the forfeiture hearing that murder was likely, and she testified
    that Julie would have been too weak the day before she died to use the
    No. 14-1380                                                           7
    a result, the letter and Julie’s statements to Officer Kosman
    were admissible at trial.
    The resulting six-week trial began more than nine years
    after Julie’s death. The State introduced evidence concerning
    Julie’s statements and actions in the days, weeks, and
    months before her death, including her handwritten letter
    and statements to Officer Kosman. The State also introduced
    evidence that Jensen was having an affair and that he was
    bitter about a brief affair Julie had seven years earlier. Two
    of Jensen’s former co-workers testified that he had made in-
    criminating statements to them. The State contended that
    Jensen had made plans to murder his wife to have a future
    with his mistress, wanted to avoid a messy divorce, and had
    searched on the internet for ways to make Julie’s death look
    like a suicide. The State also argued that Julie was a devoted
    mother who would not have committed suicide. The State
    maintained that Julie could not have ingested ethylene gly-
    col by herself and that Jensen had suffocated her after she
    showed signs of recovering from poison he had given her.
    Surprisingly, this suffocation theory arose for the very
    first time at the trial more than nine years after Julie’s death,
    when it came up for the first time during Dr. Chambliss’s
    redirect examination. Dr. Chambliss had performed an au-
    topsy, and his report had not identified a cause of death. But
    during redirect examination, the prosecutor showed Dr.
    Chambliss photographs of Julie at the scene that appeared to
    show Julie with an unnaturally bent nose. The prosecutor
    telephone. But at trial Dr. Mainland admitted that she had been “mistak-
    en” in her testimony during the forfeiture hearing because Julie did in
    fact use the phone that day and had a telephone conversation with Mrs.
    Wojt.
    8                                                   No. 14-1380
    posed a hypothetical question to Dr. Chambliss. It asked him
    to, among other things, “consider the manner in which the
    face appears to be smashed into the pillow” and to consider
    information from Jensen’s cellblock mate Aaron Dillard
    (whose significant credibility concerns we will discuss later)
    that Jensen “had shoved her face into the pillow and suffo-
    cated her.” When the prosecutor asked whether Dr.
    Chambliss had an opinion as to the cause of death in those
    circumstances, Dr. Chambliss responded with the opinion,
    for the first time, that the immediate cause of death would
    be smothering. Yet the autopsy report did not report any
    damage to Julie’s nose, and witnesses at the scene had not
    observed anything unusual about her nose. As for Dr. Main-
    land, she had testified at the forfeiture hearing that Julie died
    from ethylene-glycol poisoning. Then five months later, at
    trial, she too testified that Julie had been suffocated, based
    on details from Dillard.
    The defense account at trial was much different. It took
    the position that Julie, depressed, had committed suicide by
    poisoning herself but had made it look as though her hus-
    band, from whom she was distant, had killed her. The de-
    fense maintained that Julie was discouraging others from
    worrying about her absence so they would not come to her
    assistance. Julie had not been restrained or otherwise inca-
    pacitated from seeking help, and ethylene glycol was a fairly
    slow-acting poison, so the defense contended that Julie’s
    failure to seek help was more consistent with suicide than
    with murder.
    The defense evidence included testimony from the
    Jensens’ family doctor, who told the jury that during an ap-
    pointment two days before her death, Julie “seemed de-
    No. 14-1380                                                  9
    pressed and distraught and almost frantic, actually.” The ju-
    ry heard Julie had a fifteen-minute conversation with her
    neighbor, Mrs. Wojt, the day before her death in which she
    told Mrs. Wojt not to worry if she did not see Julie outside
    that day because she was not feeling well due to her medica-
    tion. Julie also made a similar statement to her sister-in-law
    three days earlier that she would be ill on December 2 be-
    cause she expected to be put on medication by her doctor.
    The defense also highlighted that although Julie had made
    multiple statements saying she feared her husband was try-
    ing to kill her, she did not call anyone or otherwise seek help
    when she began to feel ill.
    After thirty hours of deliberation, the jury convicted
    Jensen of first-degree intentional homicide. Four months lat-
    er, the United States Supreme Court decided Giles v. Califor-
    nia, 
    554 U.S. 353
     (2008), which adopted a narrower interpre-
    tation of the Confrontation Clause than had the Wisconsin
    Supreme Court in Jensen I. On the direct appeal of his con-
    viction, Jensen argued that Giles made clear that Julie’s
    handwritten letter and statements to the police were errone-
    ously admitted.
    In a December 29, 2010 ruling, the Wisconsin Appellate
    Court “assume[d] that the disputed testimonial evidence
    was erroneously admitted” in light of Giles but found that
    any error was harmless, and it affirmed Jensen’s conviction.
    State v. Jensen, 
    794 N.W.2d 482
    , 493 (Wis. App. Ct. 2010)
    (”Jensen II”). The Wisconsin Supreme Court denied Jensen’s
    petition for review. Jensen then filed a petition for a writ of
    habeas corpus in federal district court. The district court
    granted Jensen’s petition, and the warden appeals.
    10                                                 No. 14-1380
    II. ANALYSIS
    Jensen’s habeas petition is premised on his contention
    that the admission of Julie’s handwritten letter and her accu-
    satory statements to the police in the weeks before her death
    violated his right to confrontation under the Sixth Amend-
    ment to the United States Constitution. The Sixth Amend-
    ment provides that “[i]n all criminal prosecutions, the ac-
    cused shall enjoy the right … to be confronted with the wit-
    nesses against him.” Ordinarily, a witness who makes testi-
    monial statements against a defendant will be available at
    trial for cross examination, and if not available then the wit-
    ness’s earlier testimony will only be introduced at trial if the
    defendant had an earlier opportunity to cross examine the
    witness. See Crawford, 
    541 U.S. at 68
    .
    The state trial court concluded that an exception to the
    right of confrontation was present here because Jensen had
    committed a wrongful act (murder) that made the witness
    unavailable to testify at trial. But the Supreme Court subse-
    quently held in Giles that the forfeiture by wrongdoing ex-
    ception to the Confrontation Clause in the United States
    Constitution applies only when the defendant engaged in
    conduct designed to prevent the witness from testifying.
    Giles, 
    554 U.S. at 359
    ; see also 
    id. at 367
     (“Every commentator
    we are aware of has concluded the requirement of intent
    ‘means that the exception applies only if the defendant has
    in mind the particular purpose of making the witness una-
    vailable.’”) (citation omitted). In other words, testimonial
    hearsay statements for which no other exception applies
    should be excluded if “the evidence suggested that the de-
    fendant had caused a person to be absent, but had not done
    so to prevent the person from testifying—as in the typical
    No. 14-1380                                                  11
    murder cases involving accusatorial statements by the vic-
    tim.” 
    Id. at 361
    . The warden makes no argument that the let-
    ter and statements were admissible under Giles. Indeed, the
    State’s theory at trial was that Jensen killed his wife not to
    prevent her from testifying, but because he wanted her dead.
    Under Giles, the admission of Julie’s letter and statements to
    the police, none of which were dying declarations, violated
    the Confrontation Clause and was federal Constitutional er-
    ror. The warden does, however, argue that Jensen cannot
    benefit from Giles as a procedural matter, and we turn to that
    argument now.
    A. Giles Decided Before Claim Adjudicated on the
    Merits by State Court
    The parties dispute which Wisconsin state court decision
    constitutes the relevant decision for Antiterrorism and Effec-
    tive Death Penalty Act of 1986 (“AEDPA”) purposes. Under
    AEDPA, habeas relief
    shall not be granted with respect to any claim that was
    adjudicated on the merits in State court proceedings un-
    less the adjudication of the claim
    (1) resulted in a decision that was contrary to, or in-
    volved an unreasonable application of, clearly es-
    tablished Federal law, as determined by the Su-
    preme Court of the United States; or
    (2) resulted in a decision that was based on an unrea-
    sonable determination of the facts in light of the
    evidence presented in the State court proceeding.
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1) (emphasis added). Jensen argues that
    the Wisconsin appellate court’s post-Giles decision is the last
    state-court decision adjudicating his claim on the merits, and
    12                                                  No. 14-1380
    he maintains our review under AEDPA is therefore of the
    state appellate court decision.
    The warden, however, argues that the last state court ad-
    judication of the merits of Jensen’s Confrontation Clause
    claim was the trial court’s 2007 decision concluding that the
    disputed evidence was admissible under the forfeiture by
    wrongdoing exception. Because the Supreme Court did not
    decide Giles until 2008, the warden contends there is no deci-
    sion contrary to clearly established Supreme Court case law
    at the time, and so Jensen’s petition for habeas relief fails.
    The state appellate court assumed that the disputed testimo-
    nial evidence was erroneously admitted under Giles but
    found that any error was harmless, and the warden main-
    tains the state appellate court did not adjudicate the claim
    “on the merits” because the decision was made on harmless-
    error grounds. Jensen II, 794 N.W.2d at 493.
    If the warden is correct that the trial court decision is the
    relevant decision in this case, Jensen’s habeas request fails
    because it is premised on Giles, which the Supreme Court
    had not decided at the time of the trial court ruling. See Cul-
    len v. Pinholster, 
    131 S. Ct. 1388
    , 1399 (2011) (measuring state-
    court decisions against the Supreme Court precedents as of
    the time the state court renders its decision); Knowles v. Mir-
    zayance, 
    556 U.S. 111
    , 122 (2009) (stating it is not an unrea-
    sonable application of clearly established federal law “for a
    state court to decline to apply a specific legal rule that has
    not been squarely established by this Court.”).
    The United States Supreme Court’s recent decision in
    Davis v. Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. 2187
     (2015), guides us here. There,
    neither the criminal defendant nor his lawyer was given the
    opportunity to be present during the hearings on his chal-
    No. 14-1380                                                     13
    lenges to the prosecutor’s use of peremptory challenges to
    exclude minority jurors, and he maintained that the ex parte
    hearings violated his federal Constitutional rights. 
    Id. at 2194-95
    . The California Supreme Court ruled that any error
    was harmless beyond a reasonable doubt. 
    Id.
     at 2195 (citing
    People v. Ayala, 
    6 P.3d 193
    , 204 (Cal. 2000)). The United States
    Supreme Court granted a petition for a writ of certiorari, and
    one of the questions was “[w]hether a state court’s rejection
    of a claim of federal constitutional error on the ground that
    any error, if one occurred, was harmless beyond a reasona-
    ble doubt is an ‘adjudicat[ion] on the merits’ within the
    meaning of 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d), so that a federal court may
    set aside the resulting final state conviction only if the de-
    fendant can satisfy the restrictive standards imposed by that
    provision.” Brief for Petitioner at i, Chappell v. Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. 401
     (2014) (No. 13-1428), 
    2014 WL 2335007
    , at *i; see Chap-
    pell v. Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. 401
     (Oct. 20, 2014) (granting petition
    for writ of certiorari).
    In its resulting decision, the Court stated that “[t]here is
    no dispute that the California Supreme Court held that any
    federal error was harmless beyond a reasonable doubt under
    Chapman [v. California, 
    386 U.S. 18
     (1967)].” Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. at 2198
    . The Court then ruled that “this decision undoubted-
    ly constitutes an adjudication of Ayala’s constitutional claim
    ’on the merits.’” 
    Id.
    That a state court holding of harmless error beyond a
    reasonable doubt constitutes the adjudication of a claim on
    the merits for AEDPA purposes makes sense. The Court has
    previously explained that “as used in this context, the word
    ‘merits’ is defined as ‘[t]he intrinsic rights and wrongs of a case
    as determined by matters of substance, in distinction from
    14                                                   No. 14-1380
    matters of form.” Johnson v. Williams, 
    133 S. Ct. 1088
    , 1097
    (2013) (quoting Webster’s New International Dictionary 540
    (2d ed. 1954)). In contrast, an adjudication on matters “ex-
    traneous” to the particular claim, “such as competence of the
    tribunal or the like,” or on “procedural details” or “techni-
    calities,” would not be a decision “on the merits.” 
    Id.
     A
    harmless-error determination is a substantive determination,
    not merely one of form.
    In his brief written before Ayala, the warden pointed to
    Greene v. Fisher, 
    132 S. Ct. 38
    , 43 (2011). In Greene, the parties
    agreed that the last state court adjudication on the merits of
    a federal Confrontation Clause claim took place on direct
    appeal to the Pennsylvania Superior Court. 
    Id. at 45
    . The
    United States Supreme Court decision on which the defend-
    ant wished to rely, Gray v. Maryland, 
    523 U.S. 185
     (1998), did
    not issue until three months later. The Greene Court ruled
    that although Gray was issued while the defendant’s petition
    for leave to appeal to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court was
    pending, and that court initially granted the petition (though
    later dismissed it as improvidently granted), Gray was not
    “clearly established Federal law” under AEDPA because it
    had not been issued at the time of the last state-court adjudi-
    cation on the merits. 
    Id.
     No harmless-error determination
    was at issue in Greene, and Greene does not inform the analy-
    sis of whether a harmless-error determination is an adjudica-
    tion on the merits.
    Under Ayala, though, it is clear that the Wisconsin appel-
    late court decision is the last “adjudication on the merits” for
    AEDPA purposes in Jensen’s case. Therefore, Giles had been
    decided by the time of the last adjudication of the claim on
    the merits, and Julie’s letter and the statements to Officer
    No. 14-1380                                                   15
    Kosman at issue were admitted in violation of Jensen’s
    rights under the United States Constitution, as shown by
    clearly established Supreme Court precedent at the time of
    the Wisconsin appellate court decision.
    B. Error Had Substantial and Injurious Effect in De-
    termining Jury’s Verdict
    We must now assess whether the Wisconsin appellate
    court’s decision that any federal constitutional error was
    harmless was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable ap-
    plication of, clearly established federal law as determined by
    the United States Supreme Court, or was based on an unrea-
    sonable determination of the facts. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1), (2).
    Jensen maintains it was, and the district court agreed.
    “The test for whether a federal constitutional error was
    harmless depends on the procedural posture of the case.”
    Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. at 2197
    . When a case is on direct appeal, the
    standard for harmless error is that articulated in Chapman:
    “‘[B]efore a federal constitutional error can be held harmless,
    the court must be able to declare a belief that it was harmless
    beyond a reasonable doubt.’” Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. at 2197
     (quot-
    ing Chapman, 
    386 U.S. at 24
    ).
    However, because the conviction here originated in
    state court, this case is a collateral proceeding governed by
    AEDPA. Our case law had given some contrary signals as to
    the applicability of the Supreme Court’s decisions in Chap-
    man and Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
     (1993), in cases
    where the state-court ruling was based on harmless error.
    Compare, e.g., Kamlager v. Pollard, 
    715 F.3d 1010
    , 1016 (7th Cir.
    2013) and Brown v. Rednour, 
    637 F.3d 761
    , 766 (7th Cir. 2011)
    with, e.g., Jones v. Basinger, 
    635 F.3d 1030
    , 1052 n.8 (7th Cir.
    16                                                  No. 14-1380
    2011) (recognizing that “any error sufficiently harmful to sat-
    isfy the Brecht ‘actual prejudice’ standard could be deemed
    harmless only by unreasonably applying Chapman.”).
    The Supreme Court’s recent decision in Ayala clarified
    the standard of review. For habeas petitioners like Jensen,
    where the state court ruled that an error in admission was a
    harmless error, the petitioners are
    “not entitled to habeas relief based on trial error unless
    they can establish that it resulted in ‘actual prejudice.’”
    Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 637
     (quoting United States v. Lane, 
    474 U.S. 438
    , 449 (1986)). Under this test, relief is proper on-
    ly if the federal court has “grave doubt about whether a
    trial error of federal law had ‘substantial and injurious
    effect or influence in determining the jury’s verdict.’”
    O’Neal v. McAninch, 
    513 U.S. 432
    , 436 (1995).
    Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. at 2197-98
    .
    So the Supreme Court has made clear that Jensen must
    meet the Brecht standard. But Ayala also makes clear that this
    requirement does not mean that the Wisconsin appellate
    court’s harmless error determination lacks significance. See
    Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. at 2198
    . Rather, the “Brecht standard ‘sub-
    sumes’ the requirements that § 2254(d) imposes when a fed-
    eral habeas petitioner contests a state court’s determination
    that a constitutional error was harmless under Chapman.” Id.
    (citing Fry v. Pliler, 
    551 U.S. 112
    , 120 (2007)). While a federal
    court adjudicating a habeas petition does not need to “’for-
    mal[ly]’ apply both Brecht and ‘AEDPA/Chapman,’ AEDPA
    nevertheless ‘sets forth a precondition to the grant of habeas
    relief.’” Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. at 2198
    .
    No. 14-1380                                                   17
    Jensen maintains that the Brecht standard is satisfied here
    and that the Wisconsin court’s finding that the error was
    harmless beyond a reasonable doubt was not just wrong, but
    also unreasonable. Cf. Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. at 2199
     (stating that
    when reviewing state court’s determination that error was
    harmless under Chapman, federal court cannot grant habeas
    relief unless harmlessness determination itself was unrea-
    sonable). He also argues that the Wisconsin court unreason-
    ably applied clearly established Supreme Court law by ap-
    plying the wrong test, failing to consider his evidence in de-
    fense, and erroneously determining that key points of evi-
    dence were undisputed.
    We begin with the test for harmless error. Time and
    again, the Supreme Court has emphasized that a harmless-
    error inquiry is not the same as a review for whether there
    was sufficient evidence at trial to support a verdict. Nearly
    seventy years ago, in Kotteakos v. United States, 
    328 U.S. 750
    (1946), the Supreme Court explained as it conducted harm-
    less-error review of jury’s decision:
    And the question is, not were they right in their judg-
    ment, regardless of the error or its effect upon the ver-
    dict. It is rather what effect the error had or reasonably
    may be taken to have had on the jury’s decision.…The
    inquiry cannot be merely whether there was enough to
    support the result, apart from the phase affected by the
    error. It is rather, even so, whether the error itself had
    substantial influence.
    
    Id. at 764-65
    . The Supreme Court has reinforced this princi-
    ple over and over. For example, in Satterwhite v. Texas, 
    486 U.S. 249
     (1988), the Court considered a death sentence where
    the state appellate court found contested testimony harmless
    18                                                    No. 14-1380
    on the basis that the properly admitted evidence would have
    been sufficient to support a jury decision. 
    Id. at 258
    . The Su-
    preme Court reversed, explaining, “[t]he question, however,
    is not whether the legally admitted evidence was sufficient
    to support the death sentence, which we assume it was, but
    rather whether the State has proved ‘beyond a reasonable
    doubt that the error complained of did not contribute to the
    verdict obtained.’” 
    Id. at 258-59
     (quoting Chapman, 
    386 U.S. at 24
    ). Finding this standard satisfied, the Court reversed the
    state court’s judgment. Id. at 260; see also Sullivan v. Louisiana,
    
    508 U.S. 275
    , 279 (1993) (“The inquiry, in other words, is not
    whether, in a trial that occurred without the error, a guilty
    verdict would surely have been rendered, but whether the
    guilty verdict actually rendered in this trial was surely unat-
    tributable to the error.”); Fahy v. State of Conn., 
    375 U.S. 85
    , 86
    (1963) (“We find that the erroneous admission of this uncon-
    stitutionally obtained evidence at this petitioner’s trial was
    prejudicial; therefore, the error was not harmless, and the
    conviction must be reversed. We are not concerned here
    with whether there was sufficient evidence on which the pe-
    titioner could have been convicted without the evidence
    complained of.”).
    Despite this long line of cases establishing the test for
    harmless error, the Wisconsin appellate court’s reasoning
    reads as though it is conducting an evaluation of whether
    there was sufficient evidence to support the verdict, not
    whether the error in admitting Julie’s letter and statements
    to police affected the jury’s verdict. Cf. Kotteakos, 
    328 U.S. at 764-65
    . Near the beginning of its analysis, the state appellate
    court stated, “Here, we will not attempt to catalog all the un-
    tainted evidence the State presented; however, we will
    summarize some of the compelling pieces in order to illus-
    No. 14-1380                                                  19
    trate that the record is replete with reason to uphold the ju-
    ry’s verdict, even if the assumedly tainted evidence is disre-
    garded.” Jensen II, 794 N.W.2d at 493. The court then went
    through five categories of evidence presented by the State—
    computer evidence, motive evidence, Jensen’s incriminating
    statements, medical evidence, and miscellaneous evidence.
    Id. at 493-94. The court said this was evidence from which “a
    rational jury could alone conclude beyond a reasonable
    doubt” that Jensen murdered his wife. Id. at 494. But a
    statement of what a “rational jury could conclude” is not a
    statement of a harmless-error inquiry; it is instead the ques-
    tion presented when a direct appeal asks whether there is
    sufficient evidence to support a verdict. See State v. Kim-
    brough, 
    630 N.W.2d 752
    , 756 (Wis. 2001). That is not the ques-
    tion here.
    The state appellate court next said it would examine the
    admitted testimonial evidence to determine whether any er-
    ror in admitting it was harmless. Id. at 495. It looked at Ju-
    lie’s letter and found other properly admitted evidence in
    the record that the appellate court said made similar points
    as to those made in the letter, or to corroborate statements in
    the letter. For example, the court stated that a sentence in Ju-
    lie’s letter stating that “if anything happens to me, he would
    be my first suspect” was assumed inadmissible evidence. It
    then discussed what it termed “[ad]missible duplica-
    tive/corroborative evidence in the record.” Id. at 495. The
    court pointed to Mr. Wojt’s testimony that about a month
    before her death, Julie told him she suspected Jensen was
    trying to poison her or drive her nuts to take the children
    from her. Id. at 496. Mr. Wojt also recounted that Julie said
    Jensen would go to work and leave his computer on with a
    screen displaying a website about poisoning. Id. The court
    20                                                  No. 14-1380
    also pointed to her son’s teacher’s testimony recounting Ju-
    lie’s statement, “I think my husband is going to kill me” as
    well as Jensen’s sister’s testimony that Julie told her in the
    fall of 1998 that she thought Jensen might be planning to kill
    her. Id.
    The court concluded its discussion comparing the indi-
    vidual statements in the letter to other evidence in the record
    by stating, “The State’s additional evidence, compared to Ju-
    lie’s letter, illustrates that virtually all relevant information
    in Julie’s letter was duplicated by admissible nontestimonial
    evidence from other sources. The rest of the record reflects
    that the jury heard overwhelming evidence of murder, and
    upon this record, it could rationally have concluded beyond
    a reasonable doubt that Jensen murdered Julie. The same is
    true regarding Julie’s testimonial statements to Kosman; that
    is, virtually everything related in Julie’s statements to
    Kosman was duplicated by admissible evidence from other
    sources.” Jensen II, 794 N.W.2d at 498. This analysis from the
    Wisconsin appellate court demonstrates that it is conducting
    a review for whether there is sufficient evidence to support a
    verdict, a review that looks at all the evidence in the light
    most favorable to the conviction, and where the inquiry is
    only whether the jury could have convicted. See Kimbrough,
    
    630 N.W.2d at 756
    . That is very different than the harmless
    error test under clearly established Supreme Court law.
    And these statements do not just seem to be slips of the
    pen. The state appellate court decision contains a very de-
    tailed discussion of the State’s evidence. But its discussion
    does not engage with the defense evidence that goes against
    the evidence discussed by the court. The Supreme Court has
    said, however, that when a court “evaluat[es] the strength of
    No. 14-1380                                                   21
    only one party’s evidence, no logical conclusion can be
    reached regarding the strength of contrary evidence offered
    by the other side to rebut or cast doubt.” Holmes v. South
    Carolina, 
    547 U.S. 319
    , 331 (2006).
    To be clear, if the question was whether there was suffi-
    cient evidence to convict Jensen, the answer would be “yes.”
    But the harmless error test does not focus just on the suffi-
    ciency of other evidence. The question as we conduct the
    Brecht analysis is whether we are in “’grave doubt about
    whether a trial error of federal law had “substantial and in-
    jurious effect or influence in determining the jury’s verdict.”’”
    Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. at 2198
     (quoting O’Neal, 
    513 U.S. at 436
     (em-
    phasis added)). So we must look at the influence the im-
    properly admitted handwritten letter and accusatory state-
    ments to the police had on the verdict. In this analysis “we
    look to ‘a host of factors,’ such as ‘the importance of the wit-
    ness’ testimony in the prosecution’s case, whether the testi-
    mony was cumulative, the presence or absence of evidence
    corroborating or contradicting the testimony of the witness
    on material points, the extent of cross-examination otherwise
    permitted, and, of course, the overall strength of the prose-
    cution’s case.’” Jones, 
    635 F.3d at 1052
     (quoting Delaware v.
    Van Arsdall, 
    475 U.S. 673
    , 684 (1986)).
    The letter, a handwritten letter, penned just two weeks
    before her death, was unlike anything else in evidence. It
    came straight from Julie, shortly before her death. (At least
    according to the State—there was some question at trial as to
    its authenticity.) And it played a key role in the trial from the
    outset. The jury first heard about the letter early in the
    State’s opening statement, when it read the letter in its en-
    tirety out loud for the jury to hear. The State used Julie’s
    22                                                  No. 14-1380
    own words from the letter and her statements to Officer
    Kosman in its opening statement to underscore its themes of
    fear, motive, and absence of intent to take her own life. In
    light of the pretrial ruling that the letter would be allowed
    into evidence, the defense addressed the letter in its opening
    as well, even presenting it as a large exhibit. Defense counsel
    accurately in its opening statement told the jury that “[w]e’ll
    come back to the letter many times during this case, and
    you’ll have to decide whether it’s a blueprint for framing her
    husband or legitimate.”
    The letter was also the last thing the State left in the ju-
    ry’s mind before it deliberated Jensen’s fate, as the State’s
    end to its rebuttal closing argument focused on the letter. (It
    had also highlighted the letter and Julie’s statements to the
    police in other parts of its closing argument.) In its final ar-
    guments to the jury the State stressed that the letter con-
    tained Julie’s own thoughts: “So here was her unexpressed
    thoughts. She wrote them down, and she hid them away ….
    Hid them away until a time when she could resolve this ter-
    rible dilemma she was in ….” The State also emphasized
    here that the jury should believe the letter because it con-
    tained Julie’s own words: “It was a thought which was only
    to be expressed upon her death, because she wanted the
    world to know the truth. She wanted you to know the
    truth.” The State told the jury to believe the letter because
    Julie would not have lied: “At the time she wrote those
    words Julie had no motive to lie. She was hoping and she
    was praying nobody would ever see these words.” The State,
    in its final words, left the jury with words from the letter:
    “She hoped, she prayed that would not happen. But as she
    indicated, however, I will not leave David and Douglas, my
    life’s greatest love, accomplishment and wish. That’s why
    No. 14-1380                                                  23
    she stayed. Dr. Spiro doesn’t understand that. Well, there’s a
    lot of things that Dr. Spiro doesn’t understand. The im-
    portant thing is that you do. Thank you.”
    The prosecution’s choice to end its closing arguments
    with the letter reflects its importance in the prosecution’s
    case. The letter was a unique piece of evidence. No other
    piece of evidence had the emotional and dramatic impact as
    did this “letter from the grave.” While some of the state-
    ments in the letter also came out through other witnesses at
    trial, only the letter contained words straight from Julie. And
    what words they were. Julie’s handwritten letter said her
    husband would be her first suspect if anything were to hap-
    pen to her, along with emotionally compelling statements
    that she would never take her life or leave her children. The
    themes in the letter that Julie identified—she was caught up
    in an unhappy marriage, Jensen was still bitter about her af-
    fair, it was just Jensen who used the internet, she would
    never take her life because she loved her children too much,
    she feared Jensen was plotting her murder—were the same
    themes that the State developed throughout trial. Cf. United
    States v. Brown, 
    490 F.2d 758
    , 781 (D.C. Cir. 1973) (“The
    statement presented all the classic hearsay dangers and
    abuses. Here was that voice from the grave casting an in-
    criminating shadow on the defendant … The damaging evi-
    dence stands impregnable—irretrievably lodged in the ju-
    rors’ minds.”).
    Recognizing the significance of the letter, the prosecutor
    did not merely ask one witness to discuss the letter’s con-
    tents; rather, it displayed the handwritten letter itself on the
    screen and asked the jury to read it. Twelve witnesses testi-
    fied about the letter, including five experts. Notably, state
    24                                                 No. 14-1380
    medical experts Dr. Mainland and Dr. Long relied on the let-
    ter to support their medical opinions that Julie’s death was a
    homicide. Dr. Long testified that the letter and Julie’s other
    statements to police regarding fearing for her life from her
    husband were two of the reasons for his conclusion that Ju-
    lie’s death was a homicide. And Dr. Mainland testified that
    “every sentence in the letter influenced” her, and that the
    sentence in the letter that Julie would not take her own life
    because of her children was especially influential in her
    opinion that the death was a homicide. The police and the
    Wojts also testified about the letter. The letter was also
    shown to Jensen during a video-recorded interrogation, and
    the State emphasized Jensen’s reaction to the letter in its
    closing. The letter also came up during the jury delibera-
    tions—the jury’s second note in its thirty hours of delibera-
    tions requested the letter.
    Indeed, the importance of the letter in the State’s case
    was emphasized over and over by the State as it repeatedly
    fought to get the letter admitted. In pretrial litigation, the
    State called the letter an “essential component of the State’s
    case,” “highly relevant to the central issues of this case: sui-
    cide, motive, and fear,” and of “extraordinary value.” It also
    called the letter’s admissibility “a make or break issue” from
    the State’s perspective. While the Wisconsin appellate court
    found the improperly admitted evidence added “nothing
    significant beyond the properly admitted nontestimonial
    statements,” Jensen II, 794 N.W.2d at 499, in addition to all
    that we discussed, the State’s own words reflect the im-
    portance of the letter to its case and the unreasonable nature
    of the appellate court’s finding of harmless error.
    No. 14-1380                                                 25
    In assessing whether the improperly admitted evidence
    had a substantial and injurious effect on the verdict, we are
    concerned with the overall strength of the prosecution’s
    case, not merely the evidence in its favor. Jones, 
    635 F.3d at 1032
    . Although the state appellate court discussed the State’s
    evidence at length, it did not engage with the defense evi-
    dence. As the district court observed, “A reader of the court
    of appeals’ opinion would conclude that Jensen called no
    witnesses, introduced no evidence, never questioned the
    credibility of any witness, and never even elicited helpful
    testimony from a prosecution witness.” But that is far from
    what actually happened during the six-week trial.
    While the Wisconsin appellate court referred to “untaint-
    ed and undisputed gripping evidence against Jensen,” Jensen
    II, 794 N.W.2d at 494, the “undisputed” evidence in the case
    was all circumstantial and subject to more than one interpre-
    tation. Even the computer evidence, which the appellate
    court called the most incriminating evidence against Jensen,
    was not conclusive. The State presented evidence of searches
    for various means of death (poisoning, botulism, pipe
    bombs, and mercury fulminate, and one visited website ex-
    plained how to reverse the polarity of a swimming pool,
    which the Jensens had), testimony from her son’s teacher
    that Julie and her son had both said Julie did not know how
    to use a computer, and testimony that there was no internet
    use on the home computer in November 1998 from Monday
    through Friday between 9 a.m. and 6 p.m., while Jensen was
    at work, nor was there internet use during days when he
    was at a conference out of town.
    But no evidence precluded a jury from finding that Julie
    did at least some of the internet searches, including those for
    26                                                No. 14-1380
    ethylene glycol poisoning. In addition to the pro-prosecution
    evidence discussed by the appellate court, the jury also
    heard from Julie’s best friend, who testified that Julie used
    the computer to conduct research and for household
    bookkeeping. Julie’s resume stated that she had performed
    “on-line security order entry” while working at Dean Witter.
    She had also obtained a Series Seven broker’s license that
    allowed her to place and accept stock trades. That evidence
    was consistent with Jensen’s statement to investigators
    denying any knowledge of the internet searches for poison
    and stating that Julie also used the internet and accessed the
    computer. Moreover, that the home computer’s internet
    search history was deleted is equally consistent with both
    Julie trying to hide evidence of her suicide and with Jensen
    trying to hide evidence of murder. And no searches for poi-
    sons were found on Jensen’s work computer, which one
    might have expected if he were the person doing that search
    on the home computer.
    This case was no slam dunk. The evidence was all cir-
    cumstantial. And there was significant evidence in support
    of Jensen’s theory that Julie had taken her life, evidence not
    discussed at all by the Wisconsin appellate court. For exam-
    ple, she had visited her doctor, Dr. Richard Borman, two
    days before her death. Dr. Borman testified that she was
    “highly upset” and “seemed depressed and distraught and
    almost frantic, actually.” The jury heard that Dr. Borman
    prescribed the anti-depressant Paxil, which can worsen a
    depressed person’s symptoms. Julie became ill the day after
    she saw Dr. Borman, starting in the early hours of the day,
    and by mid-morning Jensen had gone to see Dr. Borman.
    Jensen expressed concern that Julie was suffering from Pax-
    il’s side effects including sleeplessness, and Dr. Borman pre-
    No. 14-1380                                                     27
    scribed a sleep aid. It was while Jensen was away seeing Dr.
    Borman that Julie phoned Mrs. Wojt to say not to worry if
    she did not see Julie outside that day, another significant
    piece of evidence that supported the defense’s suicide theo-
    ry. A jury could infer that once Jensen left for the doctor, Ju-
    lie put her suicide plan into action, including calling Mrs.
    Wojt and going on the computer to search for ethylene gly-
    col poisoning. (There was an internet search for ethylene
    glycol poisoning at 9:45 am that day, when the defense said
    Jensen was away seeing Dr. Borman.)
    Nor did the state appellate court discuss the significant
    credibility problems of seven-time convict Aaron Dillard,
    Jensen’s one-time cellblock mate whom the trial judge called
    the “top liar I’ve ever had in court.” Dillard, testifying at trial
    while awaiting his own sentencing, testified that Jensen ad-
    mitted to him in prison that he had poisoned Julie and later
    suffocated her by pushing her face into a pillow. The medi-
    cal professionals who opined for the very first time at trial
    that Julie was suffocated (Dr. Chambliss and Dr. Mainland)
    relied on Dillard’s account for the suffocation details. Dillard
    had in his cell a transcript of the lead detective’s interroga-
    tion of Jensen, and the trial judge recognized there was tes-
    timony from which the jury could conclude that Dillard was
    in and out of Jensen’s cell. Although the State argued that
    Jensen had confessed to his cellblock mate Dillard, if the
    transcript was in Jensen’s cell, that could have been the way
    Dillard obtained the details.
    The state appellate court also did not discuss the testi-
    mony of Dr. Herzl Spiro, who examined Julie’s mental
    health records and interviewed persons close to her. He tes-
    tified that Julie was suffering from a major depressive disor-
    28                                                             No. 14-1380
    der that was complicated by anxiety and agitation with pos-
    sible delusional features, and he concluded that she posed a
    significant suicide risk and that it was more likely that Julie’s
    ingestion of antifreeze was the result of suicidal intent rather
    than homicide or accident.
    The state appellate court noted the testimony from Ed-
    ward Klug who said that during a late-night gripe session
    with Jensen about their wives, Jensen said that if one wanted
    to get rid of his wife, there were websites instructing how to
    kill her with undetectable poison. But the court did not dis-
    cuss the fact that Klug had not come forward with this ac-
    count until nine years after Julie’s death, despite the large
    amount of publicity surrounding the case. The state appel-
    late court was concerned only with the evidence in the pros-
    ecution’s favor, while the proper concern is with the overall
    strength of the prosecution’s case. Van Arsdall, 
    475 U.S. at 684
    ; Jones, 
    635 F.3d at 1032
    . 2
    2 The dissent suggests that it is somehow irrelevant that the Wiscon-
    sin appellate court’s lengthy opinion ignored extensive evidence. But in
    Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
     (2011), to which the dissent points, there
    was no state court opinion that explained the reasons for denying relief.
    
    Id. at 98
    . Here, however, the state court gave a detailed account of the
    “arguments or theories [that] supported … the state court’s decision,”
    and that account matters to our analysis. 
    Id. at 102
    ; see Brady v. Pfister, 
    711 F.3d 818
    , 826 (7th Cir. 2013) (explaining that even after Richter, federal
    courts must evaluate whether § 2254(d) satisfied in light of state court’s
    explanation); cf. Kubsch v. Neal, 
    2015 WL 4747942
    , at *17-19 (7th Cir. Aug.
    12, 2015) (discussing review where state court rationale is incomplete).
    The actual arguments and theories supporting the state appellate court’s
    decision convince us that its error was “well understood and compre-
    hended in existing law beyond any possibility for fairminded disagree-
    ment.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 103
    .
    No. 14-1380                                                 29
    We conclude that after consideration of the correct
    standard of review, the improperly admitted letter and accu-
    satory statements resulted in actual prejudice to Jensen. We
    recognize that “an unreasonable application of federal law is
    different from an incorrect application of federal law.” Har-
    rington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
     (2011). But the state appellate
    court’s ruling was not simply incorrect. The state trial judge
    recognized this when he called the letter’s admittance “grave
    constitutional error” when he foresaw the Giles ruling. That
    the jury improperly heard Julie’s voice from the grave in the
    way it did means there is no doubt that Jensen’s rights under
    the federal Confrontation Clause were violated. Any reason-
    able jurist using the proper standard would have to find
    “grave doubt” about whether that violation is harmless. The
    error in admission had a substantial and injurious effect or
    influence in determining the jury’s verdict; it was one “well
    understood and comprehended in existing law beyond any
    possibility for fairminded disagreement.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 103
    . Because Jensen satisfies the Brecht standard, he neces-
    sarily satisfies the AEDPA standard of an unreasonable ap-
    plication of the Chapman harmless error standard. See Ayala,
    
    135 S. Ct. at 138
    ; Fry, 
    551 U.S. at 120
    . As a result, we agree
    with the district court that Jensen’s petition must be granted.
    III. CONCLUSION
    The judgment of the district court is AFFIRMED.
    30                                                  No. 14-1380
    TINDER, Circuit Judge, dissenting. The admission of Julie’s
    letter and testimonial statements to Officer Kosman violated
    Jensen’s confrontation rights, but the Wisconsin Court of
    Appeals affirmed his conviction, holding that the error was
    harmless beyond a reasonable doubt under Chapman v. Cali-
    fornia, 
    386 U.S. 18
    , 24 (1967). Fairminded jurists could disa-
    gree with that holding. Indeed, my colleagues in the majori-
    ty, who epitomize fair-mindedness, disagree, and make a
    strong case for doing so. But I submit that fairminded jurists
    could also agree with the Wisconsin Court of Appeals. And
    because we owe great deference to the state court’s decision,
    we are not in a position to choose between two fairminded
    alternatives. I would uphold the decision of the Wisconsin
    Court of Appeals as a reasonable application of Chapman.
    Therefore, I respectfully dissent.
    In Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
     (1993), the Supreme
    Court established the harmless-error standard that applies
    “in determining whether habeas relief must be granted be-
    cause of constitutional error of the trial type.” 
    Id. at 638
    . The
    test is “whether the error had substantial and injurious effect
    or influence in determining the jury’s verdict.” 
    Id. at 637
    (quotation omitted). In other words, there must be “actual
    prejudice.” 
    Id.
     (quotation omitted).
    Three years after [the Court] decided Brecht,
    Congress passed, and the President signed, the
    Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act
    of 1996 (AEDPA), under which a habeas peti-
    tion may not be granted unless the state court’s
    adjudication “resulted in a decision that was
    contrary to, or involved an unreasonable appli-
    cation of, clearly established Federal law, as
    No. 14-1380                                                   31
    determined by the Supreme Court of the Unit-
    ed States ....”
    Fry v. Pliler, 
    551 U.S. 112
    , 119 (2007) (quoting 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1)).
    The Court recently held that when a state prisoner “seeks
    federal habeas corpus relief, he must meet the Brecht stand-
    ard, but that does not mean … that a state court’s harmless-
    ness determination has no significance under Brecht.” Davis
    v. Ayala, 
    135 S.Ct. 2187
    , 2198 (2015). Rather, “[w]hen a Chap-
    man decision is reviewed under AEDPA, ‘a federal court
    may not award habeas relief under § 2254 unless the harm-
    lessness determination itself was unreasonable.’” Id. at 2199
    (quoting Fry, 
    551 U.S. at 119
    ). “And a state-court decision is
    not unreasonable if ‘fairminded jurists could disagree on
    [its] correctness.’” 
    Id.
     (quoting Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 101 (2011)) (internal quotation marks omitted). Thus, to
    prevail, a petitioner “must show that the state court’s deci-
    sion to reject his claim ‘was so lacking in justification that
    there was an error well understood and comprehended in
    existing law beyond any possibility for fairminded disa-
    greement.’” 
    Id.
     (quoting Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 103
    ).
    As assumed by the Wisconsin Court of Appeals, the ad-
    mission of Julie’s letter and testimonial statements to Officer
    Kosman violated the Confrontation Clause. However, to ob-
    tain habeas relief, Jensen “must show that he was actually
    prejudiced by this [violation], a standard that he necessarily
    cannot satisfy if a fairminded jurist could agree with the
    [state court’s] decision that the [violation] met the Chapman
    standard of harmlessness.” 
    Id.
    32                                                  No. 14-1380
    The Wisconsin Court of Appeals examined Julie’s letter
    line by line, and it explained in great detail how all of Julie’s
    statements in the letter were duplicative of other, admissible
    evidence. State v. Jensen (Jensen II), 
    794 N.W.2d 482
    , 495–98
    (2010). It did the same with Julie’s testimonial statements to
    Officer Kosman. 
    Id.
     at 498–99. For example, Jensen’s sister,
    Laura Koster, testified that Julie told her that she thought
    Jensen might be planning to kill her. Koster also testified that
    Julie showed her a photo of a list from Jensen’s day planner
    and something that “looked like a syringe.”
    Tadeusz Wojt, Julie’s neighbor, testified that during the
    three weeks prior to Julie’s death, Julie was upset and
    “scared she was go[ing] to die,” because Julie feared that
    Jensen was trying to poison her by “put[ting] something in
    the wine” Jensen insisted Julie drink. Wojt also testified that
    Julie told him that she did not think she would make it
    through one particular weekend because she had found sus-
    picious notes written by her husband and she had seen a
    computer page about poisoning that Jensen had left open on
    the home computer. Wojt testified that Julie repeatedly told
    him about marital problems she and Jensen were having.
    Therese DeFazio, Julie’s son’s teacher, testified that a
    week before her death, Julie told DeFazio that she thought
    Jensen was trying to kill her and “was going to make it look
    like a suicide.” DeFazio said Julie told her about a list writ-
    ten by Jensen that included “syringes ... and drugs and items
    like that,” and Julie feared that Jensen was going to try to
    give her an overdose of drugs by putting them in her food or
    drink. DeFazio testified that Julie said that Jensen “never
    forgave her” for the affair she had eight years earlier. DeFa-
    zio also testified that in August 1998 she asked Julie to help
    No. 14-1380                                                  33
    in the computer lab with the children, and Julie said, “[O]h, I
    can’t do that, I don’t even know how to turn one on.” DeFa-
    zio testified that Julie’s son told DeFazio that he was teach-
    ing his mother how to use a computer because “she didn’t
    know how.” DeFazio testified that Julie said she gave her
    neighbor a note, “saying that if my husband ever kills me
    please believe that I did not commit suicide, I would never
    do that because I love my children and I wouldn’t do that to
    my children.”
    Dr. Richard Borman, Julie’s physician, testified that two
    days before her death, Julie denied being suicidal and said
    she loved her children “more than anything and they were
    the most important thing in the world to her,” and she did
    not want to lose them. Dr. Borman said Julie alluded to an
    affair that she had in the past and said she believed that Jen-
    sen had “never really forgiven” her for it.
    Jensen’s friend and co-worker, David Nehring, testified
    that soon after he met Jensen, sometime around 1990 or 1991,
    Jensen told him about Julie’s brief affair. Nehring testified
    that eight years after telling him about the affair, Jensen’s
    anger had not diminished. He said that “[Jensen] remained
    upset about [the affair] and distressed over it for as long as I
    knew him.” Nehring described Jensen’s computer skills as
    “above average,” and testified that during the month before
    Julie’s death, Jensen conducted Internet searches on drug in-
    teractions “on a very frequent basis.” Nehring testified that
    Jensen said he was trying to get Julie to relax by offering her
    glasses of wine at night, but she was resisting his efforts.
    Nehring also testified that a day after Nehring told Jensen he
    was surprised the police had not seized Jensen’s work com-
    puter as part of the investigation into Julie’s death, Jensen
    34                                                No. 14-1380
    reported that his work computer “had been fried and he’d
    have to get a new one.”
    The State presented evidence indicating that Jensen re-
    peatedly placed pornographic photos around the house for
    Julie to find and that Jensen knew Julie believed her former
    paramour was planting them. Jensen denied knowing the
    origin of the pornographic photos, but he told the investigat-
    ing officer, Detective Paul Ratzburg, that he began saving
    the photos and using them to upset Julie when “something
    would happen” that caused him to “get pissed off.” Detec-
    tive Ratzburg said Jensen explained that sometimes Jensen
    would leave the photos out for Julie to find and other times
    he would bring them out, show them to Julie and tell her
    that he “found these in the shed.” Detective Ratzburg testi-
    fied that Jensen admitted that their marriage was never the
    same after Julie’s affair.
    Detective Ratzburg also testified that Jensen told him that
    on the morning of Julie’s death, Julie “could hardly sit up,”
    she “was not able to get out of bed,” and she “was not able
    to move around and function.” Jensen said he propped Julie
    up in bed at 7:30 a.m., and he did not leave home that morn-
    ing until 8:00 or 9:00 a.m. This timetable is significant be-
    cause of computer evidence that, at 7:40 a.m. on the day of
    Julie’s death, a search for “ethylene glycol poisoning” was
    conducted on the Jensen home computer and then the user
    double-deleted that morning’s Internet history. Computer
    evidence also revealed that, two months earlier, the Jensen
    home computer was used to search for methods of poison-
    ing on the same day Jensen and his then-paramour ex-
    changed emails planning their future together.
    No. 14-1380                                                   35
    In short, there were multiple sources of admissible evi-
    dence duplicating (or corroborating) every relevant aspect of
    Julie’s erroneously admitted testimonial statements. In par-
    ticular, Julie’s letter and statements to Officer Kosman were
    not the only times Julie told her story; during the same time
    period, she told variations of the same story to multiple
    people. This contributed to what the Wisconsin Court of
    Appeals described as “the staggering weight of the untaint-
    ed evidence and cumulatively sound evidence presented by
    the State,” which led the court to conclude that “the State
    has proven beyond a reasonable doubt that any error com-
    plained of did not contribute to the verdict obtained.” Jensen
    II, 794 N.W.2d at 504.
    The Wisconsin Court of Appeals recognized that “[t]his
    case was not a classic whodunit.” Id. at 493. Instead, the jury
    was asked to choose between two dark and premeditated
    alternatives—either Jensen murdered Julie and framed it to
    look like suicide, or Julie committed suicide and framed Jen-
    sen for murder. One unique aspect of this case is that each of
    Julie’s testimonial statements, as well as much of the dupli-
    cative admissible evidence, could be interpreted to support
    either alternative. (Given the wealth of duplicative admissi-
    ble evidence, it seems safe to assume the jury will be pre-
    sented with the same stark choice if there is a retrial.) It rea-
    sonably could be said that the inclusion or exclusion of Ju-
    lie’s letter and testimonial statements to Officer Kosman
    would not significantly alter the jury’s choice or the consid-
    erations underlying that choice, no matter the rhetoric em-
    ployed by the State’s lawyers in pretrial filings or the parties’
    use of the letter as a framing device during trial.
    36                                                No. 14-1380
    In part because so much of the evidence could be viewed
    as supporting either of the two competing theories, the pros-
    ecution’s case was not a slam dunk, as discussed by the ma-
    jority. And as also noted by the majority, there might be rea-
    son to believe that Julie’s letter was especially forceful evi-
    dence (even though its authenticity was questioned) and that
    members of the jury would have given less weight to Julie’s
    oft-repeated fears and accusations if all they had were her
    oral statements to her neighbor, her son’s teacher, and Jen-
    sen’s sister, as well as the corroborating computer and medi-
    cal evidence, evidence of Jensen’s incriminating statements
    and motive, and evidence of Julie’s lack of suicidal intent
    and devotion to her children. But it might also be reasonable
    to think that without the letter and testimonial statements to
    Officer Kosman, the jury would have been less inclined to
    believe Jensen’s theory that Julie committed suicide and
    framed him for murder, because anyone concocting such a
    scheme likely would have memorialized their accusations in
    writing and taken steps to ensure they came to the attention
    of the police. In other words, in this unique situation—where
    the evidence at issue supported each side’s theory—the state
    court could reasonably decide that despite the significant
    role Julie’s testimonial statements played in the trial, those
    statements did not play a significant role in deciding the ju-
    ry’s verdict.
    The majority faults the Wisconsin Court of Appeals for
    ignoring evidence supporting the defense theory. It is worth
    pointing out that the Wisconsin court stated that it “re-
    view[ed] the extensive record.” Jensen II, 794 N.W.2d at 504.
    But “of greater moment is the Supreme Court’s ruling in
    Harrington [v. Richter] that even a state court ‘opinion’ con-
    sisting of the single word ‘affirmed’ is entitled to the full
    No. 14-1380                                                 37
    deference that the habeas corpus statute demands be given
    determinations by state courts. The Supreme Court’s ruling
    precludes our inferring error from the Wisconsin court’s
    failure to discuss particular pieces of evidence.” Price v.
    Thurmer, 
    637 F.3d 831
    , 839 (7th Cir. 2011) (citing Richter, 
    562 U.S. at
    98–99).
    The majority reads the Wisconsin Court of Appeals’s de-
    cision as employing a sufficiency-of-the-evidence test, rather
    than a harmlessness test. If that was true, it would be an un-
    reasonable application of Chapman, and to be fair, there are a
    few statements in the state court’s opinion to support this
    reading. But in each case, the court reiterated its finding of
    harmlessness based on “the staggering weight of the un-
    tainted evidence and cumulatively sound evidence present-
    ed by the State.” Jensen II, 794 N.W.2d at 504. For example,
    after cataloging some of the state’s corroborating evidence,
    the court stated:
    With the above illustrative summary of the
    other, untainted and undisputed gripping evi-
    dence against Jensen—from which a rational
    jury could alone conclude beyond a reasonable
    doubt that Jensen cruelly planned and plotted
    and, in fact, carried out the murder of his wife
    Julie—we move on to examine the admitted testi-
    monial evidence for a determination as to whether
    the assumed error in admitting it was harmless or
    reversible. As already noted, we conclude that
    the State has met its burden of proving admis-
    sion of the testimonial evidence was harmless
    beyond a reasonable doubt. The State deftly
    dissects the challenged testimonial evidence
    38                                                 No. 14-1380
    and is able to point to admissible duplicative
    and corroborative evidence in the record.
    Id. at 494–95 (emphasis added). This passage makes clear
    that while the Wisconsin Court of Appeals found the nontes-
    timonial evidence against Jensen sufficient to support the
    jury’s verdict, this was not the basis of its harmlessness find-
    ing. Instead, the court “move[d] on” to conclude that the
    admission of Julie’s testimonial statements was harmless be-
    cause the statements were duplicative of other, untainted
    corroborative evidence. Cf. Delaware v. Van Arsdall, 
    475 U.S. 673
    , 684 (1986) (“Whether such an error is harmless in a par-
    ticular case depends upon a host of factors…. These factors
    include … whether the testimony was cumulative, [and] the
    presence or absence of evidence corroborating or contradict-
    ing the testimony of the witness on material points….”). As
    the Wisconsin court stated in concluding its harmlessness
    analysis, “[t]he sine qua non is that the testimonial state-
    ments provided nothing significant beyond the properly
    admitted nontestimonial statements.” Jensen II, 794 N.W.2d
    at 499. And as the court reiterated in concluding its opinion:
    “the State has proven beyond a reasonable doubt that any
    error complained of did not contribute to the verdict ob-
    tained.” Id. at 504; cf. Chapman, 
    386 U.S. at 24
     (“[B]efore a
    federal constitutional error can be held harmless [on direct
    appeal], the court must be able to declare a belief that it was
    harmless beyond a reasonable doubt.”).
    The Wisconsin Court of Appeals concluded that “even
    assuming the testimonial evidence of Julie’s letter and Julie’s
    statements to Kosman were inadmissible under the rules of
    evidence and the Sixth Amendment Confrontation Clause,
    we deem any error in admission harmless.” Jensen II, 794
    No. 14-1380                                                  39
    N.W.2d at 499. Based on the duplicative nature of Julie’s tes-
    timonial statements and the overall strength of the prosecu-
    tion’s case (even considering the defense evidence discussed
    by the majority), I am not convinced that the state court’s
    decision “‘was so lacking in justification that there was an
    error well understood and comprehended in existing law
    beyond any possibility for fairminded disagreement.’” Ayala,
    
    135 S.Ct. at 2199
     (quoting Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 103
    ); cf. id. at
    2198 (“There must be more than a ‘reasonable possibility’
    that the error was harmful. The Brecht standard reflects the
    view that a ‘State is not to be put to th[e] arduous task [of
    retrying a defendant] based on mere speculation that the de-
    fendant was prejudiced by trial error; the court must find
    that the defendant was actually prejudiced by the error.’”)
    (quoting Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 637
    ; Calderon v. Coleman, 
    525 U.S. 141
    , 146 (1998)). I would find that the decision of the Wis-
    consin Court of Appeals represented a reasonable applica-
    tion of controlling precedent. Accordingly, I would reverse
    the grant of habeas relief.