Mendiola, Julio v. Schomig, James E. ( 2000 )


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  • In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    No. 98-4031
    Julio Mendiola,
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    v.
    James M. Schomig, Warden, Pontiac
    Correctional Center,
    Respondent-Appellee.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    No. 98 C 3183--Charles P. Kocoras, Judge.
    Argued January 4, 2000--Decided August 10, 2000
    Before Easterbrook, Manion, and Rovner, Circuit
    Judges.
    Easterbrook, Circuit Judge. During the wake for a
    member of the Latin Kings street gang, four non-
    members drove by. Incensed, gang members standing
    outside the funeral home opened fire on the car,
    which sped away. Within a block the car crashed
    into other vehicles. Three of the four occupants
    made it to safety on foot. Manuel Gutierrez, the
    fourth, did not. As a mob beat Gutierrez, one
    assailant shot Gutierrez six times, killing him.
    A jury concluded that Julio Mendiola fired the
    fatal bullets, and he was sentenced to 50 years’
    imprisonment for first-degree murder. His
    conviction was affirmed by the state’s appellate
    court, and a federal judge denied his petition
    for collateral relief. 1998 U.S. Dist. Lexis 16995
    (N.D. Ill. Oct. 21, 1998). Mendiola’s sole
    contention on this appeal is that the prosecutor
    withheld material exculpatory evidence, violating
    the due process clause of the fourteenth
    amendment. See Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
    (1963).
    Eyewitness testimony supplied the basis of the
    conviction. Francisco Carabez identified Mendiola
    as the shooter. Immediately after the murder,
    Carabez and his friend Angelo Torres went looking
    for the killer. Carabez described the shooter’s
    appearance and clothing to Torres, and when the
    two found Mendiola within a block of the crime
    Carabez unhesitatingly identified him to Torres
    based on his clothing as well as his visage.
    Carabez later identified Mendiola in a photo
    spread, a lineup, and the courtroom. Torres
    corroborated Carabez’s description of the events
    immediately after the murder. Mendiola’s defense
    was an alibi (that he had been drinking beer with
    two friends in a car some distance from the
    murder); one of the supposed drinking companions
    verified this story; several witnesses testified
    that Mendiola was not the shooter; Mendiola
    himself testified that he had nothing to do with
    the killing or, for that matter, the Latin Kings.
    This defense was undercut by a police officer’s
    testimony that the tattoo of a crown on
    Mendiola’s back is the insignia of the Latin
    Kings, that the officer had observed Mendiola
    associate with other gang members and use the
    gang’s slogans and gestures, that in a booking
    photograph Mendiola posed using a hand gesture
    employed by the Latin Kings, and that soon after
    being arrested Mendiola had given accounts of his
    whereabouts that conflicted with the alibi
    offered at trial. Another officer testified that,
    when arrested, Mendiola had admitted membership
    in the Latin Kings. Some if not all of the
    witnesses who testified on Mendiola’s behalf had
    links to that gang, and the prosecutor argued
    that their testimony should be discounted
    accordingly.
    Although the murder took place in daylight on a
    busy street, police and prosecutors had
    difficulty finding people willing to cooperate.
    Only one witness to the attack other than Carabez
    testified for the prosecution, and that witness,
    Maria Balderrama, was unable (or unwilling) to
    identify the shooter. Balderrama, who was 12 at
    the time of the shooting and trial, testified
    that she had been playing on the street when the
    affray erupted. She corroborated Carabez’s
    description of the attempted escape, the mob
    descending on Gutierrez, the beating, and the
    murder. But when asked for identifying details,
    all Balderrama would say was that the shooter was
    "not that tall and not that short," and "not that
    fat and not that skinny." She viewed a lineup but
    did not identify anyone. She did not recall what
    the slayer was wearing. On cross examination,
    Balderrama stated that she did not get a good
    look at the killer and did not see his face. The
    detective who conducted the lineup testified that
    Balderrama had appeared to be very scared and
    hesitated even to view the lineup until she was
    assured that the people in the lineup could not
    see her--an assurance that obviously did not
    apply to the trial.
    On the day of sentencing, Mendiola filed a
    motion for a new trial. The principal support for
    that motion was the transcript of a statement
    that Balderrama made to Mendiola’s lawyer, in his
    office, two weeks after the trial. Balderrama
    told counsel in response to leading questions
    that, during her time on the stand, she came to
    believe that Mendiola was not the shooter.
    According to her statement, after the completion
    of her testimony she expressed this opinion to
    one of the two prosecutors, who asked her not to
    tell Mendiola’s lawyer. It is uncontested that
    the state never informed defense counsel that
    Balderrama wanted to change her testimony from an
    agnostic position to one favoring Mendiola.
    Failure to convey that information, Mendiola
    insisted, violated the prosecution’s obligation
    under the due process clause to disclose material
    exculpatory information.
    The trial judge denied Mendiola’s request for a
    new trial and also declined to hold an
    evidentiary hearing to learn whether Balderrama
    would repeat in court the statements made in
    defense counsel’s office. The judge concluded
    that, no matter what Balderrama later said, she
    had not exculpated Mendiola immediately after
    leaving the stand, and that, as a result, the
    prosecution had not violated its constitutional
    obligation. In an unpublished opinion, the court
    of appeals observed that it, too, was entitled to
    draw inferences from the record, and it agreed
    with the trial judge that "the content of Maria
    Balderrama’s post-trial statement regarding the
    conduct of the assistant State’s Attorneys in
    this case [is] highly incredible." Then the
    appellate court added that, even if Balderrama’s
    post-trial statement were true, her change of
    mind would not have been material exculpatory
    evidence, because Balderrama had denied seeing
    the shooter’s face. When denying Mendiola’s
    petition, the district court concluded that the
    state court’s decision on the materiality issue
    did not represent an unreasonable application of
    clearly established federal law, see 28 U.S.C.
    sec.2254(d)(1), making federal collateral relief
    unavailable.
    If Balderrama told the prosecutor that she was
    confident that Mendiola did not shoot Gutierrez,
    then the critical question is whether "there is
    a reasonable probability" that this information
    would have altered the outcome of the trial.
    Strickler v. Greene, 
    527 U.S. 263
    , 280 (1999);
    Kyles v. Whitley, 
    514 U.S. 419
    , 433-34 (1995).
    Although this sounds like a demand for
    quantification, Strickler and Kyles say that the
    inquiry is subjective: "[t]he question is not
    whether the defendant would more likely than not
    have received a different verdict with the
    evidence, but whether in its absence he received
    a fair trial, understood as a trial resulting in
    a verdict worthy of confidence." 
    Kyles, 514 U.S. at 434
    , reiterated by 
    Strickler, 527 U.S. at 289
    -
    90. When the constitutional standard is flexible,
    and the state court takes the rule seriously and
    produces an answer within the range of defensible
    positions, sec.2254(d)(1) requires the federal
    court to deny the petition. "[W]hen the
    constitutional question is a matter of degree,
    rather than of concrete entitlements, a
    ’reasonable’ decision by the state court must be
    honored." Lindh v. Murphy, 
    96 F.3d 856
    , 871 (7th
    Cir. 1996) (en banc), reversed on other grounds,
    
    521 U.S. 320
    (1997). See also Williams v. Taylor,
    
    120 S. Ct. 1495
    , 1518-23 (2000); Gardner v.
    Barnett, 
    199 F.3d 915
    (7th Cir. 1999) (en banc);
    Tenner v. Gilmore, 
    184 F.3d 608
    (7th Cir. 1999).
    That Balderrama had denied under oath seeing the
    incident clearly enough to make an
    identification, had disclaimed seeing the
    shooter’s face and was unable even to describe
    his body type, means that her testimony did not
    support his conviction other than by
    corroborating Carabez’s description of the
    sequence of events. Her change of mind did not
    affect this aspect of her testimony, the only one
    that mattered. Yet it cannot be gainsaid that
    Mendiola would have been helped by support from
    Balderrama, for the prosecutor could not have
    responded that she was affiliated with the Latin
    Kings--although the prosecutor would have
    emphasized the incompatibility between
    Balderrama’s new position and her earlier
    professed inability to see details about the
    shooter’s appearance. Because arguments can be
    made both ways, it is hard to call the state
    court’s resolution unreasonable, in the objective
    sense adopted by the Supreme Court in Williams.
    But we need not rest on that ground, because
    both the trial court and the state appellate
    court found that Balderrama did not tell the
    prosecutor that she had come to believe that
    Mendiola did not shoot Gutierrez. The appellate
    court’s statement--that "the content of Maria
    Balderrama’s post-trial statement regarding the
    conduct of the assistant State’s Attorneys in
    this case [is] highly incredible"--was not, as
    Mendiola would have it, a throw-away line. It was
    an independent ground of decision, offered only
    after the court observed that it had an
    independent right to draw inferences from the
    record. Under federal law, that finding of fact
    is dispositive.
    In a proceeding instituted by an application for
    a writ of habeas corpus by a person in custody
    pursuant to the judgment of a State court, a
    determination of a factual issue made by a State
    court shall be presumed to be correct. The
    applicant shall have the burden of rebutting the
    presumption of correctness by clear and
    convincing evidence.
    28 U.S.C. sec.2254(e)(1). Mendiola has not
    established by "clear and convincing evidence"
    that Balderrama’s post-trial statement,
    effectively a partial recantation of her trial
    testimony, must be preferred to the testimony
    given under oath. Mendiola has not seriously
    tried to do this; he has no evidence other than
    Balderrama’s statement. Instead his principal
    contention is that conclusions reached by state
    judges in the absence of an evidentiary hearing
    are not "really" findings of fact and fall
    outside sec.2254(e).
    The foundation of Mendiola’s position--that only
    trial judges may make factual findings, and then
    only after hearings dedicated to the contested
    issue--is unsound. Sumner v. Mata, 
    449 U.S. 539
    ,
    546-47 (1981), holds that state appellate courts’
    findings are entitled to the same respect that
    trial judges’ findings receive. What is more,
    sec.2254(e)(1) does not require findings to be
    based on evidentiary hearings. This is a major
    difference between sec.2254(e), part of the
    Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of
    1996, and its predecessor 28 U.S.C. (1994 ed.)
    sec.2254(d). The former statute required
    deference to "a determination after a hearing on
    the merits of a factual issue" unless one of
    eight conditions was satisfied. Section 2254(e),
    by contrast, omits any mention of a hearing. If
    a state court’s finding rests on thin air, the
    petitioner will have little difficulty satisfying
    the standards for relief under sec.2254. But if
    the state court’s finding is supported by the
    record, even though not by a "hearing on the
    merits of [the] factual issue", then it is
    presumed to be correct.
    Plenty of support for the finding is apparent
    in this record. The trial judge heard
    Balderrama’s testimony at trial, which supplied
    ample basis for the judge to disbelieve a later
    inconsistent story. See United States v. Provost,
    
    969 F.2d 617
    , 619-20 (8th Cir. 1992). Cf. United
    States v. Stewart, 
    198 F.3d 984
    (7th Cir. 1999)
    (statements made under oath when pleading guilty
    are conclusive, and the judge may reject without
    a hearing a defendant’s later contention that his
    sworn statements were untrue). Balderrama’s
    statement to Mendiola’s lawyer made little sense.
    Why would she testify as she did and then sing a
    different song immediately after leaving the
    stand? The trial judge observed not only
    Balderrama but also the prosecutors. In response
    to Mendiola’s post-trial motion, both prosecutors
    denied that Balderrama had told them that she had
    concluded that Mendiola did not shoot Gutierrez.
    Neither prosecutor testified under oath (and one
    relayed his recollections by hearsay through the
    other), but both had reputational interests in
    telling the truth. When dealing with contentions
    that prosecutors have exercised peremptory
    challenges improperly, judges are entitled to
    credit prosecutors’ explanations without placing
    them under oath. Purkett v. Elem, 
    514 U.S. 765
    (1995); Hernandez v. New York, 
    500 U.S. 352
    (1991). We see no greater reason why a formal
    hearing is required when the subject is what a
    witness told a prosecutor. If Balderrama’s post-
    trial statement is correct, then two prosecutors
    put their law licenses and careers in jeopardy
    for no good reason; the trial judge (and the
    state’s appellate court) were entitled to think
    it more plausible that Balderrama did not recant
    until the post-trial interview with Mendiola’s
    lawyer.
    Disbelief of recantations is sensible--and not
    just because the formality of a court, the
    presence of the litigants, and the gaze of a
    judge induce witnesses to hew more closely to the
    truth than they do when speaking in private and
    attempting to appease the losing side’s advocate.
    Disbelief is reasonable because it protects
    witnesses after trial, and thus promotes truthful
    testimony during trial. See Hyseer v. Florida,
    
    315 U.S. 411
    , 422 (1942). Some witnesses fall
    prey to influences--perhaps the persuasive
    influence of a skilled advocate asking leading
    questions, perhaps the less wholesome influence
    of the defendant’s friends. See Charles Alan
    Wright, 3 Federal Practice and Procedure
    sec.557.1 (2d ed. 1982). Both may have been at
    work with Balderrama. People fear the Latin Kings
    for a reason. By disbelieving recantations,
    judges protect witnesses such as Balderrama.
    Knowledge that obtaining a recantation will not
    affect the outcome of the trial makes it less
    likely that defendants and their friends will
    hound witnesses after trial. Witnesses who are
    nonetheless pursued may protect themselves by
    telling defendants’ friends (and lawyers) what
    they want to hear, knowing that recantation will
    not jeopardize an accurate verdict already
    delivered.
    Four state judges (one trial judge, three
    appellate judges) chose to believe Balderrama on
    the witness stand over Balderrama in the office
    of Mendiola’s lawyer, and to believe two members
    of the bar rather than to credit a recantation by
    a fearful witness. That decision has not been
    undercut by clear and convincing evidence, so the
    judgment of the district court is
    affirmed.
    ROVNER, Circuit Judge, dissenting. It is our
    obligation in habeas corpus to defer to the state
    courts, not to clean up after them. The trial
    judge in this case left a gaping hole in the
    record when he "found" that Maria Balderrama lied
    and the prosecutor she accused of suppressing
    evidence told the truth, without bothering to
    hear either one of them testify. Rather than
    remanding for an evidentiary hearing, the
    Illinois appellate court compounded the problem
    when, "draw[ing] inferences of fact from the
    record," it dismissed Balderrama’s post-trial
    statement as "highly incredible." Today, my
    colleagues conclude not only that no harm was
    done, but that it is an entirely "sensible"
    approach for courts to disbelieve recantations as
    a matter of principle, whatever the
    circumstances. See ante at 7. Their reasoning
    would summarily foreclose relief not only to
    Mendiola, but to any defendant convicted on the
    testimony of an eyewitness who later recants, and
    I cannot join it.
    1.
    Maria Balderrama was a key prosecution witness
    whose impartiality the prosecutors trumpeted in
    closing arguments. She did not identify Mendiola
    as the man who shot Manuel Gutierrez, but she
    corroborated the testimony of the one and only
    witness who did--Francisco Carabez. The
    prosecutor’s own words reveal how important she
    was to the State’s case:
    What else do you have, ladies and gentlemen?
    Maria Balderamma [sic]. Let’s talk about Maria
    Balderamma [sic] for a second. Thirteen-year-old
    girl that came in and told you what she saw. She
    saw and she heard the victim begging for his
    life. She tells you he’s laying there on the
    ground saying, I’m not nothing, I’m not nothing,
    don’t shoot me, please don’t shoot. She says the
    man took out the gun, fired the gun numerous
    times. And what’s her description of the shooter?
    Not too tall, not too short. Was he fat? No, not
    really fat. Was he thin? No, not really thin. Not
    what the Latin King members, the defense
    witnesses, tell you a concocted defense of some
    short, fat guy. Maria Balderamma [sic] was right
    across the street. She says she couldn’t see his
    face. She was trembling when she viewed the
    lineup.
    What she tells you, ladies and gentlemen,
    supports everything that Francisco Carabez said,
    everything he said about what happened.
    F141-42 (emphasis added). See also 
    id. at F149
    ("And you know Francisco Carabez is telling the
    truth because it’s supported by all of the
    evidence in this case."); F197 ("Two credible
    witnesses, Angelo Torres, is enough. Maria
    Balderamma [sic] is enough.").
    Balderrama’s sworn post-trial statement was as
    material as her testimony at trial. What she
    alleges is that while she was on the witness
    stand, she realized that Mendiola was not the
    person who shot Gutierrez. She recognized
    Mendiola (whom she did not know by name) from the
    neighborhood, where she had seen him eating out
    with his parents on one occasion and in church on
    two others. C117-18. And she was "positive" that
    Mendiola was not the shooter, because Mendiola
    did not have a ponytail, did not have dark skin,
    and was taller than the person she had seen kill
    Gutierrez. C118-19. Balderrama goes on to allege
    that immediately after she testified (and while
    the trial was still underway), she approached one
    of the prosecutors and repeatedly told him that
    "[t]hat is not the guy" who shot Gutierrez. C123.
    He instructed her to say nothing to either
    Mendiola’s attorneys or his parents, however, and
    until the trial was over, she heeded that
    instruction. C123-24.
    If Balderrama is telling the truth, the
    prosecutor suppressed exculpatory evidence in
    violation of Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
    , 
    83 S. Ct. 1194
    (1963). By Balderrama’s account, she
    got enough of a look at the shooter and had
    enough of a visual acquaintance with Mendiola to
    know that he was not the killer. Her testimony to
    that effect would have left the State without the
    corroboration of Carabez’s testimony that it so
    emphasized in arguments to the jury. That
    corroboration cannot be dismissed as cumulative
    or immaterial. By all accounts, the events that
    culminated in the murder of Gutierrez unfolded
    very quickly in a chaotic environment. Because
    there was no physical evidence implicating
    Mendiola in the murder, the State’s case rested
    almost entirely on eyewitness testimony--and in
    great measure upon the testimony of a single
    witness, Carabez. Balderrama was the only
    prosecution witness who could confirm Carabez’s
    account of what occurred and his description of
    the person who shot Gutierrez. (Torres could only
    testify as to what Carabez told him.) She also
    was, as my colleagues acknowledge, one of very
    few witnesses whose credibility was unimpeached.
    Ante at 5.
    One need only look to United States v. Agurs,
    
    427 U.S. 97
    , 
    96 S. Ct. 2392
    (1976), for
    confirmation that the assertions in Balderrama’s
    post-trial statement are material. In Agurs, the
    Supreme Court held that the prosecutor’s
    suppression of exculpatory evidence in violation
    of Brady will demand a new trial "if the omitted
    evidence creates a reasonable doubt that did not
    otherwise exist[.]" 
    Id. at 112,
    96 S. Ct. at
    2402. By way of illustration, the Court remarked:
    If, for example, one of only two eyewitnesses to
    a crime had told the prosecutor that the
    defendant was definitely not its perpetrator and
    if this statement was not disclosed to the
    defense, no court would hesitate to reverse a
    conviction resting on the testimony of the other
    eyewitnesses. . . .
    
    Id. at 112
    n.21, 96 S. Ct. at 2402 
    n.21, quoting
    Comment, Brady v. Maryland and The Prosecutor’s
    Duty to Disclose, 40 U. Chi. L. Rev. 112, 125
    (1972). This is almost exactly the situation we
    have here. One of the two eyewitnesses who were
    central to the State’s case purportedly told the
    prosecutor that Mendiola was not the assailant,
    and this exculpatory information was kept from
    the defense until after he was convicted. In view
    of the fact that the State relied upon Balderrama
    to bolster the testimony of the only witness who
    could identify Mendiola as the killer, her
    statement (if credited) creates "a reasonable
    probability that, had the evidence been disclosed
    to the defense, the result of the proceeding
    would have been different." Strickler v. Greene,
    
    527 U.S. 263
    , 
    119 S. Ct. 1936
    , 1948 (1999)
    (quoting United States v. Bagley, 
    473 U.S. 667
    ,
    682, 
    105 S. Ct. 3375
    , 3383 (1985)); Kyles v.
    Whitley, 
    514 U.S. 419
    , 433-34, 
    115 S. Ct. 1555
    ,
    1565 (1995)./1
    2.
    The key question, of course, is whether
    Balderrama’s post-trial assertions are credible.
    But for what has transpired in this case, there
    would be no need to point out that credibility
    assessments require an evidentiary hearing. We
    honor that rule probably more than a hundred
    times a year in reviewing summary judgment
    rulings alone. See Anderson v. Liberty Lobby,
    Inc., 
    477 U.S. 242
    , 255, 
    106 S. Ct. 2505
    , 2513
    (1986). The reasons are as familiar as the rule.
    Ascertaining whether a witness is telling the
    truth--as yet an entirely unscientific task--
    demands an opportunity for the factfinder to look
    her in the eye, observe her demeanor, note the
    dryness of her brow, hear the inflections in her
    voice, and in general to observe how she holds up
    on cross-examination. E.g., Anderson v. City of
    Bessemer City, N.C., 
    470 U.S. 564
    , 575, 105 S.
    Ct. 1504, 1512 (1985); United States v.
    Mancillas, 
    183 F.3d 682
    , 701 n.22 (7th Cir. 1999)
    (quoting United States v. Garcia, 
    66 F.3d 851
    ,
    856 (7th Cir. 1995)), cert. denied, 
    120 S. Ct. 1271
    (2000). Cold paper records supply none of
    this information.
    What Mendiola appropriately asked for, and what
    he was entitled to, was a brief evidentiary
    hearing so that the court could determine whether
    Balderrama or the prosecutor was telling the
    truth. Balderrama’s statement, which Mendiola
    submitted in support of his request, laid more
    than an adequate foundation for the hearing. Her
    statement was given under oath, and it set forth
    in detail when and why she realized that Mendiola
    was not the person she had seen shoot Gutierrez,
    as well as the circumstances and content of the
    conversation in which she disclosed this
    information to the prosecutor. Nothing more was
    required to demonstrate that an evidentiary
    hearing was necessary.
    But rather than devote twenty minutes or so to
    such a hearing, or to articulate sound reasons
    why a hearing was unnecessary, the trial judge
    simply "found" that Balderrama was lying. The
    sole piece of evidence that the court actually
    had before it at that point was Balderrama’s
    sworn statement. Beyond that, it had only an out-
    of-court verbal assurance from the prosecutor
    identified in Balderrama’s statement denying that
    there had ever been a conversation in which she
    told him that Mendiola was not the shooter. G6,
    G12. That assurance was relayed to the court by
    the prosecutor’s colleague. Nonetheless, the
    court proceeded to find the hearsay repetition of
    the prosecutor’s denial to be more credible than
    Balderrama’s sworn statement:
    I find there was no violations [sic] of the
    document Brady versus Maryland because I accept
    [Assistant State’s Attorney] Mr. Berlin’s word
    through the representations of [his colleague]
    Mr. Rogers here in court. Mr. Berlin being an
    officer of the court that he never had a
    conversation with Maria Balderamma [sic] or she
    stated that Mr. Mendiola was not the shooter. I
    find that conversation did not exist; that Maria
    Balderamma [sic] a young lady from the community
    for whatever motivated her, made in fact a false
    statement to the defense attorneys in the
    presence of the court reporter post-trial. That
    assertion due to the fact I find Mr. Berlin to be
    a credible outstanding state’s attorney. He’s not
    in any way encroached nondisclosure under Brady
    versus Maryland.
    G18-19.
    This was an extraordinary turn of events.
    Without having heard a single witness testify,
    and based solely on the unsworn assurances of a
    prosecutor who was not even before the court,/2
    the court simply took the prosecution’s word and
    labeled Balderrama a liar. It did not say that
    her post-trial statement was incredible as a
    matter of law, it did not say that her statement
    was immaterial. It simply chose not to believe
    her, without any of the process that normally
    attends such credibility determinations.
    3.
    Faced with the blatant impropriety of the trial
    court’s credibility determination, the Illinois
    Appellate Court felt the need in the first
    instance to become a factfinder itself. "[A]n
    appellate court may draw inferences of fact from
    the record before it," the court proclaimed.
    People v. Mendiola, No. 1-95-2874, Order, at 20
    (Ill. App. July 21, 1997) (hereinafter, "Order"),
    citing Ill. Sup. Ct. Rule 366(a)(4)./3 And without
    further ado--indeed, without any explanation at
    all--the court simply announced: "We find the
    content of Maria Balderrama’s post-trial
    statement regarding the conduct of the assistant
    State’s Attorneys in this case to be highly
    incredible." Order at 20.
    The appellate court’s finding is even less
    sound than the trial court’s. The trial judge, at
    least, had heard Balderrama testify at trial and,
    within the confines of the courtroom, had seen
    the prosecutors at work. See ante at 6-7. The
    appellate court, by contrast, had only a cold
    record before it. It had no business making
    credibility determinations. See Cabana v.
    Bullock, 
    474 U.S. 376
    , 388 n.5, 
    106 S. Ct. 689
    ,
    698 n.5 (1986)./4 What the court meant to say,
    perhaps, when it "found" Balderrama’s post-trial
    statement to be "highly incredible," was that no
    reasonable finder of fact could believe it--that
    her statement was incredible as a matter of law.
    See, e.g., Anderson v. Bessemer City, 
    N.C., 470 U.S. at 575
    , 105 S. Ct. at 1512; Kidd v. Illinois
    State Police, 
    167 F.3d 1084
    , 1095-96 (7th Cir.
    1999). That won’t fly either. To accuse a
    prosecutor of misconduct, as Balderrama did, is
    a grave matter. None of us wants to believe that
    an officer of the court would instruct a witness
    to keep exculpatory information to herself. But
    is it beyond the realm of possibility?
    Regrettably, it is not. See Lockett v. Blackburn,
    
    571 F.2d 309
    (5th Cir. 1978) (State encouraged and
    helped confidential informants who witnessed
    defendant’s sale of heroin to undercover agent to
    leave state before trial, rendering defendant
    unable to subpoena them); see also, e.g., United
    States v. Boyd, 
    833 F. Supp. 1277
    (N.D. Ill.
    1993) (Aspen, J.), aff’d, 
    55 F.3d 239
    (7th Cir.
    1995); Walker v. City of New York, 
    974 F.2d 293
    ,
    294-95 (2d Cir. 1992), cert. denied, 
    507 U.S. 961
    , 
    113 S. Ct. 1387
    (1993), and cert. denied,
    
    507 U.S. 972
    , 
    113 S. Ct. 1412
    (1993); Ex Parte
    Davis, 
    957 S.W.2d 9
    , 10-11 (Tex. Crim. App.
    1997), cert. denied, 
    523 U.S. 1023
    , 
    118 S. Ct. 1307
    (1998); Commonwealth v. Smith, 
    615 A.2d 321
    ,
    322-23 (Pa. 1992). Balderrama’s allegations are
    straightforward and plausible, and we are given
    no other reason to believe that her testimony--if
    she were ever allowed to give it--could not be
    credited. So far as the record reveals, she is
    not delusional, she suffers no impairments in her
    perception, nor is she an incompetent witness--
    she was, after all, a jewel in the State’s case
    against Mendiola. A factfinder would of course be
    free not to believe her, but before she can be
    deemed incredible, her testimony must be heard.
    Grudgingly indulging the assumption that
    Balderrama’s statement might be true, the
    Illinois appellate court alternatively posited
    that it was not material in the Brady sense--that
    it was unlikely to have affected the outcome of
    the trial, in other words. Order at 20-21; see
    
    Strickler, 119 S. Ct. at 1948
    , 1952; 
    Kyles, 514 U.S. at 434
    , 115 S. Ct. at 1565-66. For three
    reasons, each of which again revolves around her
    credibility, the court was confident that a jury
    would have discounted Balderrama’s allegations:
    (1) "young Maria’s post-trial statement lacks
    credibility because it seems to result from
    defense counsel’s leading questions"; (2) her
    statement "was contradicted by nearly every other
    witness"; and (3) cross-examination by Mendiola’s
    attorney at trial "significantly undercut Maria’s
    ability to inculpate or exculpate any suspect."
    Order at 21-21 (emphasis in original). The
    district court thought that this was a reasonable
    materiality assessment, and sustained the state
    court judgment on that basis. Mendiola v. Carter,
    No. 98 C 3183, 
    1998 WL 748276
    , at *8 (N.D. Ill.
    Oct. 22) (Kocoras, J.). On closer inspection,
    however, the appellate court’s materiality
    evaluation turns out to be as flawed as the rest
    of its analysis.
    That Mendiola’s lawyers may have asked some
    leading questions when they elicited Balderrama’s
    post-trial statement is entirely beside the
    point. Her statement was submitted solely as
    prima facie proof of the need for a hearing. See
    G8. In that sense, it was no different from an
    affidavit, which typically is drafted by an
    attorney in terms favorable to his client. Had
    the trial court allowed Mendiola to put
    Balderrama on the witness stand, his attorneys no
    doubt would have questioned her in an appropriate
    manner; and the State, I might add, would have
    enjoyed the opportunity to cross-examine her. But
    one party cannot conduct a hearing on his own,
    and so we are left with the record as it is. To
    discount the evidentiary value of Balderrama’s
    statement because of its form ignores the fact
    that it is the trial court that is to blame for
    refusing to hold a hearing, not Mendiola.
    To say that Balderrama’s statement "was
    contradicted by nearly every other witness"
    (Order at 21) is flat-out wrong. What
    contradicted Balderrama, the court believed, was
    the testimony of several eyewitnesses that the
    man who shot Gutierrez "wore a hood." Order at
    19. If he was wearing a hood, the appellate court
    apparently reasoned, Balderrama could not
    possibly have known that he wore his hair in a
    ponytail--and the ponytail is one of the reasons
    she gives for her late realization that Mendiola
    was not the shooter. C118. Yet, one can wear a
    hooded sweatshirt or jacket without wearing the
    hood up, and if the shooter’s hood was down
    during any portion of the encounter, it would
    have been possible for Balderrama to see a
    ponytail. In fact, of the five eyewitnesses who
    testified about the shooting, only one--Carabez--
    indicated that the assailant raised his hood at
    the beginning of the encounter. B68, B91. Three
    others testified that the killer left his hood
    down until after he shot Gutierrez. D150, E38,
    E65. The fifth--Balderrama--could not recall
    whether he had a hood or not. B124.
    Finally, to suggest that Balderrama’s ability to
    inculpate or exculpate anyone as Gutierrez’s
    assailant had already been cast into doubt at
    trial ignores the basis for Balderrama’s
    assertion that Mendiola was not the shooter.
    Balderrama had indeed effectively conceded on
    cross-examination that she did not get a good
    look at the killer and did not see his face.
    B123-24. The two characteristics that in her mind
    ruled out Mendiola as the assailant, however--his
    complexion and lack of a ponytail (C118-19)--are
    not features that require a good look at
    someone’s visage to discern. Nothing in this
    record gives us reason to doubt that Balderrama
    in fact saw a ponytail and dark complexion on the
    assailant. (Carabez, for example, testified that
    the shooter’s complexion was "[b]rownish." B73.)
    The State itself was content to rely on her
    description of the shooter to bolster Carabez’s
    identification of Mendiola. F142.
    4.
    My colleagues’ own effort to rescue the state
    courts’ finding fares no better and in one
    important respect, I believe, makes matters
    worse. Declaring first that there is "[p]lenty of
    support" in the record for the state courts’
    assessment of Balderrama’s credibility, ante at
    6, they tick off a list of circumstances which,
    in their view, suggest that her post-trial
    statement is false, ante at 6-7. None of these
    factors, however, supports the trial court’s
    decision to dismiss Balderrama as a liar without
    first holding a hearing. Second, my colleagues
    make the sweeping declaration that "[d]isbelief
    of recantations is sensible" because it "promotes
    truthful testimony during trial." Ante at 7.
    Maybe, maybe not. But not all recantations are
    false, and a generalized pronouncement that trial
    courts are free to disregard any and all
    recantations as a matter of policy rules out any
    relief to those convicted on the basis of perjury
    or otherwise inaccurate testimony.
    The fact that the trial court heard Balderrama
    testify as a witness at trial (see ante at 6-7)
    lends little or no support to the determination
    that her post-trial statement is incredible. That
    point would be relevant if Balderrama were
    attempting to withdraw or change her prior
    testimony. Had she identified Mendiola as the
    shooter at trial, for example, the trial court
    would indeed have had some basis for assessing
    the veracity of her post-trial assertion that
    Mendiola was not the shooter--having already
    heard and seen the witness say that X is true
    under oath, a court has a frame of reference for
    assessing the credibility of her subsequent
    statement that X is false. See, e.g., United
    States v. Provost, 
    969 F.2d 617
    , 619-20 (8th Cir.
    1992), cert. denied, 
    506 U.S. 1056
    , 
    113 S. Ct. 986
    (1993), cited ante at 6-7. Put another way,
    when a witness wishes to take back what she has
    already asserted under oath, she has some
    explaining to do; and if a reasonable explanation
    is not forthcoming, the court need not let her
    testify a second time. See United States v.
    Stewart, 
    198 F.3d 984
    , 986 (7th Cir. 1999), cited
    ante at 7; see also Higgins v. Mississippi, No.
    97-3521, 
    2000 WL 869416
    , at *3 (7th Cir. June 30).
    Balderrama’s statement is not a true recantation
    in this sense, however. At trial, Balderrama
    never implicated Mendiola as the person who shot
    Gutierrez. Instead, she recounted the sequence of
    events that culminated in the shooting and gave
    a vague description of the shooter. In no respect
    does her post-trial statement conflict with the
    substance of her testimony. The statement
    certainly does convey information that Balderrama
    did not disclose at trial, but in virtually every
    instance, this was information that she was never
    asked about at trial. She was never asked, for
    example, whether the shooter wore his hair in a
    ponytail. She was never asked if Mendiola
    appeared taller, shorter, darker, or lighter than
    the shooter. She was never asked, in fact,
    whether she recognized Mendiola at all. Her post-
    trial statement thus stands in contrast to a true
    recantation, which often amounts to a confession
    of perjury. To the extent it requires
    explanation, she gives it.
    My colleagues also suggest that Balderrama’s
    statement "made little sense." Ante at 7. "Why
    would she testify as she did," they ask, "and
    then sing a different song immediately after
    leaving the stand?" 
    Id. (emphasis in
    original).
    As I have just explained, however, Balderrama’s
    post-trial statement does not amount to a
    different song so much as an additional verse. So
    far as the record discloses, when Balderrama took
    the witness stand, no one thought that she could
    or would identify Mendiola as Gutierrez’s
    assailant. She had not picked Mendiola out of the
    line-up (see B116), she had not seen the
    shooter’s face (B115-16), and could only describe
    the shooter in general terms (B116, B124). Her
    own realization that she did recognize Mendiola
    (as someone other than the shooter) did not occur
    until she was on the witness stand. C119. Because
    no one else was the wiser at that point, she was
    not asked while on the stand whether she
    recognized him. The fact that she (allegedly)
    spoke up immediately after she finished
    testifying if anything lends credibility to her
    account of events. Would my colleagues think her
    allegations more credible if she had waited a
    month or two (or a year or two) before
    approaching the prosecutor?
    The notion that the trial judge was entitled to
    credit the prosecutor’s unsworn, hearsay denial
    because prosecutors have "reputational interests
    in telling the truth" (ante at 7) makes
    insufficient room for the real world. Yes,
    prosecutors, like other attorneys, have an
    interest in preserving their credibility;
    confessing small sins serves that interest. But
    I hardly think it likely that a prosecutor who
    actually instructs a witness to suppress
    exculpatory information is going to be
    forthcoming about it, when it is only her word
    against his. If indeed a prosecutor has engaged
    in the kind of serious misconduct that Balderrama
    alleges, arguably it would not be in his
    "reputational interest" to acknowledge the
    impropriety. Confessing to conduct that amounts
    to the obstruction of justice will not do much to
    advance a prosecutor’s career. Whatever we might
    think in the abstract, the important point is
    that we know that some prosecutors do engage in
    this sort of misconduct (see, e.g., cases cited
    supra at 16), and that they don’t always tell the
    truth about it. Balderrama’s allegations are
    within the realm of possibility. Under the
    circumstances, the trial judge was obligated to
    hear both Balderrama and the prosecutor testify
    before deciding who was telling the truth.
    Finally, the suggestion that there are
    "sensible" policy reasons to disbelieve
    recantations categorically (ante at 7) is
    bothersome. Recantations should be viewed with a
    healthy dose of skepticism, for all of the
    reasons my colleagues have cited. But as we know,
    witnesses don’t always wait until after they
    leave the courtroom to dissemble. Just as a
    witness may recant her testimony later to appease
    the defendant and his allies, she may also lie in
    the first instance, perhaps to appease the
    prosecution, to protect someone else, or to
    exculpate herself. In short, the recantation on
    occasion represents the truth./5 Deciding when
    that is so is by no means an easy task, and when
    the trial judge has given the witness’s change of
    heart due consideration, his judgment is entitled
    to our deference. But when a court rejects a
    plausible recantation out of hand, without any of
    the process that attends a valid credibility
    assessment, we owe the court’s finding no
    respect. To sustain such a summary determination,
    as we do today, is to unnecessarily exalt the
    sovereignty of state courts over due process and
    the pursuit of truth.
    5.
    Four state judges, my brothers note in closing,
    have chosen to disbelieve Balderrama’s post-trial
    statement exonerating Mendiola. Ante at 8. With
    all due respect to my colleagues on the Illinois
    courts, it would not matter if 100 of them had
    done so, since not one has actually heard what
    Balderrama has to say. And given that Balderrama
    and the prosecutor are the only two people who
    know whether her allegations are true, Mendiola
    cannot possibly marshal the clear and convincing
    evidence needed to show that the state courts’
    credibility assessment is wrong (see ante at 6,
    8) unless and until he is given the chance to put
    Balderrama on the witness stand.
    The gravity of the trial court’s mistake is
    demonstrated by the lengths to which the Illinois
    appellate court, and now this court, have gone to
    compensate for it. Had the trial judge simply
    done his job and conducted an evidentiary hearing
    that would have enabled him to decide whether
    Balderrama’s post-trial statement is truthful, we
    would not be here today. Instead, we find
    ourselves struggling to prop up credibility
    assessments fashioned of smoke and mirrors. It is
    not our province to second-guess state courts,
    but neither is it our province to gloss over
    their mistakes. This case should be remanded to
    the district court for the evidentiary hearing
    that the state courts have refused to give
    Mendiola.
    I respectfully dissent.
    /1 See, e.g., 
    Kyles, 514 U.S. at 445
    , 115 S. Ct. at
    1571 ("the effective impeachment of one
    eyewitness can call for a new trial even though
    the attack does not extend directly to others .
    . . .") (citing Agurs); Cannon v. Alabama, 
    558 F.2d 1211
    , 1215-16 (5th Cir. 1977) (new trial
    ordered where government failed to disclose
    eyewitness who had identified someone other than
    defendant as perpetrator), cert. denied, 
    434 U.S. 1087
    , 
    98 S. Ct. 1281
    (1978); Jackson v.
    Wainwright, 
    390 F.2d 288
    , 298-99 (5th Cir. 1968)
    (new trial ordered where prosecution failed to
    disclose pre-trial statements of eyewitness who
    said assailant had lighter complexion than
    defendant); United States ex rel. Meers v.
    Wilkins, 
    326 F.2d 135
    , 138-40 (2d Cir. 1964) (new
    trial ordered where prosecution failed to
    disclose two eyewitnesses who told police that
    defendant did not participate in robbery);
    Watkins v. Miller, 
    92 F. Supp. 2d 824
    , 843-47
    (S.D. Ind. 2000) (Hamilton, J.) (habeas corpus
    granted where prosecution failed to disclose,
    inter alia, existence of eyewitness who observed
    abduction of murder victim at time when defendant
    had solid alibi and who gave description of
    abductor that could not have been defendant);
    United States v. Sheehan, 
    442 F. Supp. 1003
    ,
    1008-09 (D. Mass. 1977) (new trial ordered where
    government failed to disclose existence of only
    eyewitness who saw unmasked faces of bank robbers
    and who was unable to identify defendant as one
    of the robbers); In re Kapatos, 
    208 F. Supp. 883
    ,
    888-89 (S.D.N.Y. 1962) (habeas corpus granted and
    new trial ordered where State failed to disclose
    pre-trial statement and grand jury testimony of
    witness who indicated that defendant was not one
    of two men he saw fleeing scene of murder).
    /2 "Hearsay testimony is presumptively unreliable
    under the common law because the opposing party
    has no opportunity to cross-examine and test the
    declarant’s truthfulness under oath before the
    factfinder." United States v. Shukri, 
    207 F.3d 412
    , 417 (7th Cir. 2000), citing 5 John H.
    Wigmore, Evidence in Trials at Common Law sec. 1368, at
    37, sec. 1420, at 251 (rev. ed. 1974), and
    McCormick on Evidence sec. 245, at 728 (Edward W.
    Cleary ed., 3d ed. 1984). The prosecutor’s out-
    of-court statement in this case bears none of the
    indicia of reliability that would overcome this
    presumption. See, e.g., Fed. R. Evid. 804(b).
    /3 The supreme court rule grants a variety of
    discretionary powers to a reviewing court in
    Illinois to exercise "on such terms as it deems
    just," including the authority to "draw
    inferences of fact." Rule 366(a)(4). Illinois
    appellate courts resort to this authority when
    they make a finding that the facts of record
    virtually compel, e.g., In re Marriage of
    Bennett, 
    587 N.E.2d 577
    , 579-81 (Ill. App. 1992),
    and likewise when they reject a factual assertion
    that is wholly inconsistent with the record,
    e.g., In re Marriage of Johnson, 
    565 N.E.2d 162
    ,
    163-64 (Ill. App. 1990). Nothing in the rule,
    however, authorizes a reviewing court to resolve
    a genuine swearing contest. See, e.g., Zaderaka
    v. Illinois Human Rights Com’n, 
    545 N.E.2d 684
    ,
    688 (Ill. 1989).
    /4 Of course I agree that appellate courts have the
    ability and authority under appropriate
    circumstances to make factual determinations,
    Sumner v. Mata, 
    449 U.S. 539
    , 546-47, 
    101 S. Ct. 764
    , 769 (1981) ("Sumner I"), and that such
    determinations are presumed to be correct, 28
    U.S.C. sec. 2254(e)(1). See ante at 6. Thus, for
    example, when a state appellate court examines
    the record and determines that the trial judge
    did not rely on an impermissible factor in
    sentencing the defendant, Wainwright v. Goode,
    
    464 U.S. 78
    , 85, 
    104 S. Ct. 378
    , 382-83 (1983),
    that a witness gave an accurate, detailed
    description of the defendant, Sumner v. Mata, 
    455 U.S. 591
    , 597, 
    102 S. Ct. 1303
    , 1307 (1982) (per
    curiam) ("Sumner II"), or that the record reveals
    or does not reveal racial discrimination in the
    selection of jurors, Mitchell v. Rees, 
    114 F.3d 571
    , 576-77 (6th Cir. 1997), cert. denied, 
    522 U.S. 1120
    , 
    118 S. Ct. 1062
    (1998), we owe that
    assessment deference. See Sumner 
    II, 455 U.S. at 597-98
    ; 102 S. Ct. at 1307; Sumner 
    I, 449 U.S. at 546-47
    , 101 S. Ct. at 769. But the presumption of
    correctness falls away when the appellate court
    engages in factfinding without the sort of
    information or process that render factual
    assessments reliable. Making a credibility
    assessment based on a paper record alone is a
    classic example. 
    Bullock, 474 U.S. at 388
    n.5,
    106 S. Ct. at 698 
    n.5.
    /5 Illinoisans will no doubt recall Cathleen Crowell
    Webb, who stirred a nationwide controversy in
    1985 when she recanted her charge that Gary
    Dotson had kidnapped and raped her in 1977. Her
    recantation led the Governor to commute Dotson’s
    sentence, although it did not initially persuade
    the Illinois courts to vacate his conviction. See
    People v. Dotson, 
    516 N.E.2d 718
    (Ill. App.
    1987). Notably, however, the trial judge in
    Dotson at least heard Webb’s recantation on the
    witness stand before rejecting it as incredible.
    See 
    id. at 719.
    Years later, when DNA testing
    ruled out Dotson as the source of biological
    material found on Webb’s undergarments, a new
    trial was ordered and the State dropped the
    charges against him. See Matt O’Connor, State
    dismisses Dotson rape case, Chicago Tribune, Aug. 15,
    1989, at 1.