Hampton, Patrick v. Leibach, Blair ( 2003 )


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  •                              In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    ____________
    No. 01-4186
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ex rel.
    PATRICK HAMPTON,
    Petitioner-Appellee,
    v.
    BLAIR LEIBACH,
    Respondent-Appellant.
    ____________
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    No. 99 C 5473—Matthew F. Kennelly, Judge.
    ____________
    ARGUED APRIL 10, 2002—DECIDED OCTOBER 14, 2003
    ____________
    Before RIPPLE, MANION, and ROVNER, Circuit Judges.
    ROVNER, Circuit Judge. In 1982, an Illinois jury convicted
    eighteen-year-old Patrick Hampton of deviate sexual
    assault, attempted rape, robbery, and aggravated battery,
    and the trial judge ordered him to serve an extended pris-
    on term of sixty years. Hampton filed a petition for a writ
    of habeas corpus pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    , alleging
    (among other things) that his trial counsel was constitu-
    tionally ineffective for failing to investigate and interview
    exculpatory eyewitnesses to the crimes of which he was
    convicted and for making promises in his opening statement
    to the jury that he did not keep. Following an evidentiary
    hearing, the district court granted the writ on these
    2                                                No. 01-4186
    grounds. Hampton v. Leibach, No. 99 C 5473, 
    2001 WL 1518533
     (N.D. Ill. Nov. 29, 2001). The State has ap-
    pealed. By order of the United States Supreme Court,
    Hampton has been released from prison during the pen-
    dency of this appeal. We affirm the district court’s judg-
    ment.
    I.
    The offenses of which Hampton was convicted took
    place at a rhythm and blues concert held at the Chicago
    International Amphitheatre on the evening of December 29,
    1981. Four bands performed at the concert: Chocolate Milk,
    Slave, Michael Henderson, and Zapp. Shortly after mid-
    night, while the last band was still playing, a group of up
    to forty individuals marched up the aisle toward the stage,
    chanting “Black Gangster Disciples” and “Third World
    Disciple Nation,” pounding their fists together, and making
    gang signals with their hands. Three Latino concert-
    goers—Hugo N., Martha N., and Denise M.1—were seated
    in the fifth row of the theater. As they arose from their
    seats and attempted to leave, the group in the aisle at-
    tacked them, removing their clothes, taking their wallets
    and jewelry, beating them, and sexually assaulting the two
    women. Security guards eventually intervened and rescued
    the three victims of the assault. None of the perpetrators
    was detained at the scene.
    Fourteen year-old Keith Powell attended the concert
    and witnessed the attack. He later identified a number
    of former acquaintances from the Robert Taylor Homes
    (a public housing project) as having been in the group of
    people who had marched toward the stage of the theater.
    1
    We shall refer to the these three individuals by their first
    names and last initials to respect their privacy.
    No. 01-4186                                                 3
    Hampton was among the individuals that Powell identi-
    fied, although Powell would later testify that he did not
    actually see Hampton participate in the attack on the three
    Latinos.
    Hampton was arrested on December 31, 1981. He was
    eighteen years old at that time and had never before been
    arrested.
    Ultimately, nine individuals, including Hampton, were
    charged with the attacks. Six of them pleaded guilty
    and were sentenced to the short periods of time they had
    already spent in jail awaiting trial. Three defendants—
    Hampton, Ronald Mallory, and Ricky Knight—pleaded not
    guilty. They were tried jointly before three separate juries.
    Attorney Jack Rodgon represented Hampton at the trial.
    Hampton’s family had retained Rodgon, who previously
    had represented Hampton’s brother. In advance of trial,
    Rodgon sought to withdraw as Hampton’s counsel, asserting
    that his fees were not being paid and that Hampton and his
    family were not cooperating with him in preparation of the
    case. The trial judge, Hon. Earl E. Strayhorn, proposed to
    solve the problem by appointing Rodgon. Rodgon demurred,
    indicating there were “some problems” with representing
    Hampton. R. 48-1 at 129. The judge was unmoved and
    refused to release Rodgon from the engagement; he subse-
    quently granted Rodgon’s motion to continue as Hampton’s
    counsel by appointment.
    At trial, Powell testified that near the end of the concert,
    a group of men approached the Amphitheatre stage, making
    gang-related signs with their hands and chanting gang
    slogans. The three defendants were members of that group.
    Powell had known the defendants for two to three years; he
    had once lived in the Robert Taylor Homes where the de-
    fendants resided. Powell saw a disturbance break out near
    the stage. At some point during the melee, a naked woman
    ran up the aisle; he also saw Knight throw a pair of pants
    4                                               No. 01-4186
    in the air. Although the stage lights were lit during this
    incident, the rest of the lights in the Amphitheatre were
    darkened. Following the concert, Powell took the 43rd
    Street bus back to the Robert Taylor Homes near 43rd and
    State Streets, where he was staying with his aunt. He saw
    each of the three defendants (among other individuals that
    he knew) on that bus. He also overheard a conversation in
    which someone—he could not say who—bragged about
    having “stuffed his fingers” into the vagina of a woman, R.
    48-2 at 563, and having taken jewelry. Powell reported
    what he had seen and heard to the police on the afternoon
    of December 31. Powell testified that although Hampton
    was in the group that approached the stage, he had not
    seen Hampton attack anyone, nor had he heard Hampton
    say anything on the bus. Powell also testified that he had
    picked Hampton out of a line-up, and he was positive on
    this point. R. 48-2 at 624. However, the trial evidence would
    subsequently reveal that he had never picked Hampton out
    of a line-up. R. 48-3 at 1087.
    Hugo N., one of the three victims of the assault, testified
    that he had attended the concert with his girlfriend, Denise
    M., his sister, Martha N., and Martha’s boyfriend, Scott S.
    They sat in the fifth row on the main floor of the Amphi-
    theatre. A number of disturbances preceded the assault
    in which he, Denise, and Martha were injured: In the inter-
    mission following the second act, Martha’s boyfriend was
    struck in the head with a crowbar; during the third act,
    Hugo saw security personnel chasing someone through the
    theater; and during the intermission between the third and
    final acts, he saw another fight break out among concert-
    goers. During the last act, when Hugo, Denise, and Martha
    saw the group of men moving down the aisle toward the
    stage chanting “Third World Disciple Nation” and making
    hand signals, they decided to leave. (Scott S. had already
    left due to his injury.) As they attempted to do so, however,
    the group blocked their exit and attacked them. Hugo lost
    No. 01-4186                                                  5
    sight of Martha. As Hugo attempted to shield Denise from
    the group, they were both kicked and punched. His shirt
    was torn off, he felt people going through his pockets (his
    wallet, keys, and jewelry all were taken) and then the rest
    of his clothes were torn from his body. Denise was also
    being stripped of her clothes. Knight twice struck him
    and Denise with a chair, and on the second blow they both
    fell to the floor. At this point, a number of attackers had
    exposed their penises, and Hugo saw Knight put his in
    Denise’s mouth, telling her “something like ‘here, take it.’ ”
    R. 48-2 at 766. A security guard eventually came to his aid;
    another helped Denise. They were taken to a first aid
    station and subsequently by ambulance to a hospital. Hugo
    later identified Knight from photographs and from a line-
    up. He did not identify Hampton as one of his attackers.
    Nor did he give the police a description of his assailants pri-
    or to the first line-up that he viewed. Hugo agreed that at
    the time of his assault, the last band was still playing, the
    air in the Amphitheatre was smoke-filled, and the only light
    was coming from the multi-colored stage lights.
    Denise M. testified that when she, Hugo, and Martha at-
    tempted to leave the theater, their path was blocked by a
    group of fifteen to twenty men who were chanting and mak-
    ing hand signals. She and Hugo were pushed and shoved,
    and she felt hands grabbing her. Her clothing and jewelry
    were ripped from her person, and she felt fingers being
    pushed into her vagina. After someone twice struck them
    with a chair, she fell dazed to the ground along with Hugo.
    A number of the men had their penises out, and two of them
    approached her. Knight attempted to put his in her mouth
    (saying “here, take it,” R. 48-3 at 1017) as did Mallory.
    Several men sat on her legs and one tried to pull them
    apart. Denise saw one of the attackers, whom she identified
    as Hampton, move his hands and she felt him try to force a
    cold, hard object into her vagina. Eventually, a security
    guard arrived and managed to break up the assault. Denise
    6                                                    No. 01-4186
    suffered a number of injuries from the attack, including a
    tear in her vagina that required surgical repair, a bladder
    infection, and scarring on her breast. From photographs
    and from a line-up, she subsequently identified Hampton as
    the individual who had attempted to force an object into her
    vagina. On cross-examination, Denise testified that she
    could not estimate how long she had seen this individual.
    She indicated that there were many men who were attack-
    ing her, and that she was concentrating on the faces of the
    men who tried to put their penises in her mouth.2 Prior to
    viewing photographs and a line-up, she did not give a
    description of Hampton or her other assailants to the
    police.3
    Martha N. testified that the assault began as a group of
    men began to march toward the stage, making signals at
    another group that was standing in front of the stage. As
    she looked over at the aisle, she saw Knight gathering men
    around him as they proceeded down the aisle. When she,
    Hugo, and Denise attempted to move into the aisle in order
    to leave, she found herself surrounded by a group of up to
    thirty or thirty-five men. Knight swung a chair at her and
    she ducked to avoid the blow. She then felt others pulling
    her by the hair toward the stage. She was punched and
    kicked, and her jewelry was taken. A man that she identi-
    fied as Hampton tore her pants and attempted (unsuccess-
    2
    Other testimony indicated that on January 3, 1982, Denise
    had identified Ronald Mallory, not Knight, as the person who put
    his penis into her mouth; subsequently, on January 8, she iden-
    tified Knight as the one who did this. R. 48-3 at 952-53, 957. At
    trial, Denise testified that both men had attempted to do this, but
    that neither one had succeeded. R. 48-3 at 1018, 1019.
    3
    Chicago police Detective Thomas Ptak testified that Denise M.
    did supply the police with a description of her assailants. How-
    ever, no such description was included in the police report that he
    prepared. R. 48-3 at 960.
    No. 01-4186                                                7
    fully) to put his hand into her vagina. When she tried to get
    away, she heard Knight say, “Get her. Get her.” R. 48-2
    at 856. She managed to run to a security guard and asked
    for his help, but he did nothing. She then located a second
    guard who did help her. Martha testified that she subse-
    quently picked Hampton out of line-up that took place on
    December 31. She acknowledged that she had only seen his
    face for four to five seconds on the night of the assault and
    that during that time she was kicking and flailing at the
    people who were attacking her. Prior to viewing the De-
    cember 31st line-up, she did not describe Hampton or her
    other assailants to the police beyond saying that they were
    young black males. R. 48-3 at 949-50.
    Detective Thomas Ptak later acknowledged on cross-ex-
    amination that according to a written investigative report
    that he had helped to prepare, Martha N. had identified
    Ezra Garner, not Hampton, as the man who had tried to
    put his hand into her vagina. R. 48-3 at 984. Ptak testified
    that the report was erroneous, and that Martha had ac-
    tually identified Hampton.
    William Heinrichs, a field supervisor for the Cook County
    Sheriff’s office, was moonlighting as a security guard at
    the concert. Just after midnight, a young Latina in a torn
    blouse and pants (Martha N.) approached him and told him
    that a fight was taking place and that her brother and his
    girlfriend were being attacked. He left her in the custody of
    another guard, then rounded up additional other guards to
    assist him. As he and other guards approached the scene of
    the attack, he saw a large group of black men gathered in
    a circle. In the center of that circle, a man and a woman
    were on the ground being beaten. As Heinrichs pushed his
    way through to the center of the circle, he saw a young
    black man that he later identified as Hampton bending over
    the woman, thrusting his arm toward her vaginal area. One
    of the other guards yanked him off the woman, and the
    guards helped the two victims—both of them naked and
    8                                                No. 01-4186
    bruised—to safety. Heinrichs testified that he grabbed the
    assailant he identified as Hampton by the shoulder, but
    was unable to keep him and the others from fleeing. On the
    witness stand, Heinrichs indicated that he saw Hampton
    for no more than three to four seconds during the assault;
    he also testified that he had searched Hampton earlier in
    the evening, when Hampton was admitted to the theater.
    Following the incident, Heinrichs made no effort to contact
    the police for more than a week; ultimately, someone from
    the police department contacted him on January 6. Later
    that day, Heinrichs identified Hampton and three other
    individuals as participants in the attacks from a photograph
    of a line-up. On the previous day, Heinrichs had seen a
    television news report about the attack. That report fea-
    tured a picture of Hampton (who by then was in police cus-
    tody), and in Heinrichs’ estimation, the photograph of
    Hampton had been displayed on the air for as long as one
    minute.
    Ricky Knight called no witnesses in his defense. He of-
    fered only a single stipulation to the effect that a detective
    would testify that the police investigation revealed it was
    Ronald Mallory, and not Knight, who had put his penis in
    Denise’s mouth.
    Ronald Mallory presented four witnesses besides himself.
    A woman who had grown up in the same neighborhood
    as he testified that to her knowledge he was not a gang
    member. A second witness, who knew Mallory from the pro-
    jects and considered him a friend, testified that she had
    attended the concert, that she had seen the attacks, that
    she was standing right next to Mallory while the attacks
    took place, that Mallory had not participated in the attacks,
    and that he was not, to her knowledge, a gang member.
    Gregory Hubbard testified that he had known Mallory
    for five to six years from the neighborhood, that he too was
    present at the concert, that he saw Mallory during the
    attacks, that Mallory had not taken part in the attacks, and
    that Mallory was not a gang member. Gregory Mallory
    No. 01-4186                                                9
    (“Gregory” or “Gregory Mallory”), Ronald’s brother, testified
    that he too had attended the concert, that he had seen the
    attacks, that he saw where his brother was during the
    attacks, and that Mallory was not one of the attackers.
    Gregory acknowledged that he had a previous conviction for
    an unspecified crime. Finally, Mallory himself testified,
    acknowledging that he was present at the concert but
    denying any involvement in the attacks. Mallory said that
    he approached the police on his own and gave them a
    statement after hearing that they were looking for him. He
    conceded, however, that he had lied to the authorities when
    he told them he had not seen anyone he knew (other than
    his brother) at the concert.
    Two of Mallory’s witnesses had favorable things to say
    about Hampton. The government asked Hubbard on cross-
    examination whether he had seen anyone he recognized
    participating in the attacks. Hubbard said that he had not,
    and on further questioning, testified that he had not seen
    either Knight, Hampton, or Mallory take part in the at-
    tacks. R. 48-3 at 1145. Gregory Mallory, also on cross-ex-
    amination, denied that either Mallory or Hampton was a
    member of the Disciples gang. R. 48-3 at 1107.
    However, because each defendant’s case was heard by a
    separate jury, Hampton’s jury did not hear this testimony.
    When the State was putting on its own witnesses, all three
    juries were present in the courtroom at the same time. But
    as counsel for each defendant took turns cross-examining
    the State’s witnesses, and later as each defendant put on
    his own evidence, the juries were rotated in and out of the
    courtroom such that each jury only heard one defendant’s
    case. Hampton’s jury thus was not present in the courtroom
    when Mallory’s witnesses testified.
    Hampton’s defense case was limited to one witness. De-
    tective Craig Cegielski testified that Powell, to his knowl-
    edge, had never picked Hampton out of a line-up. R. 48-3 at
    1087.
    10                                             No. 01-4186
    In his opening statement, Hampton’s attorney, Rodgon,
    made two promises: first, that Hampton would testify that
    he was present at the concert and had seen what happened
    but had not participated in the attack (R. 48-2 at 543), and
    second, that the evidence would show that Hampton was
    neither a member of, nor involved with, any gang (id. at
    544). Neither promise was kept. Hampton did not testify,
    and his jury heard no evidence that he had lacked involve-
    ment with a gang.
    The theme that Rodgon sounded in closing argument was
    one that he focused on exclusively throughout the trial—the
    weakness of the government’s case against Hampton.
    Rodgon challenged both Powell’s credibility and Heinrichs’:
    Rodgon noted that Powell claimed to have identified
    Hampton in a line-up but that the evidence revealed he
    had not done so; and Heinrichs, despite his position as
    a law enforcement officer, had not come forward as a wit-
    ness until the police contacted him more than a week after
    the assaults, and he had identified Hampton only after
    he had seen a news report featuring a photograph of
    Hampton. Rodgon also questioned the ability of Martha N.
    and Denise M. to identify Hampton as one of their attack-
    ers, noting that they had only gotten brief glimpses of the
    assailant under stressful conditions. Rodgon explained nei-
    ther Hampton’s failure to testify nor the lack of evidence
    that Hampton was uninvolved in a gang; he simply noted
    that Hampton was not obliged to put on a case.
    During jury deliberations, Hampton’s jury sent four notes
    to the judge. One of these indicated that the jury had ar-
    rived at a verdict as to five of the nine charges against
    Hampton but was deadlocked as to the four other charges.
    R. 62 at 189. Ultimately, the jury acquitted Hampton of the
    attempted rape of Martha N. (R. 62 at 193) but convicted
    him of deviate sexual assault, the attempted rape of Denise,
    aggravated battery, and robbery (R. 62 at 194-201). Knight
    was convicted on all charges. Mallory was acquitted of cer-
    No. 01-4186                                               11
    tain charges and granted a mistrial as to the remaining
    charges, as to which his jury could not render a verdict. He
    was acquitted of the remaining charges at a second trial.
    Judge Strayhorn ordered Hampton to serve a prison term
    of sixty years. R. 62 at 214; R. 48-6 at 58. The most ser-
    ious of his offenses, deviate sexual assault, was normally
    punishable by a maximum of thirty years. However, that
    maximum was doubled to sixty years upon a finding that
    the assault was accompanied by exceptionally brutal or
    heinous behavior indicative of wanton cruelty. Judge
    Strayhorn determined that Hampton’s use of a foreign ob-
    ject to assault Denise M. met this condition. He remarked:
    It is probably the most ag[g]rievously cruel, wanton,
    depraved, brutal, [heinous], animalistic activity that
    I have run into in some thirty five years in the practice
    of law as a prosecutor, as a defense counsel and as a
    Judge. I’ve never run into a situation involving the
    [heinous] type facts that evolved in this case and that
    were shown to exist in this case and Mr. Hampton was
    actively involved to take a foreign object and to attempt
    to force it into the vagina of a woman being held pros-
    trate on the ground, people on each arm and on each
    leg. That’s animalistic. That’s depraved. That’s cruel.
    That’s doing great harm and I can’t allow it to pass and
    I will not allow it to pass unnoticed.
    R. 48-8 at 37. He was not imposing the sentence for the
    purpose of rehabilitation, Judge Strayhorn explained. “It is
    purely and simply for punishment for . . . the most cruel,
    wanton, brutal, [heinous,] depraved, animalistic act that
    I have ever seen committed on a human being.” R. 48-8
    at 38. The judge ordered Hampton to serve concurrent, les-
    ser terms on the other charges. R. 62 at 214; R. 48-6 at 58.
    On direct review, the Illinois appellate court affirmed
    Hampton’s conviction and sentence. People v. Knight, 
    486 N.E.2d 1356
     (Ill. App. Ct. 1985). The Illinois Supreme
    12                                               No. 01-4186
    Court, as well as the United States Supreme Court, both de-
    clined to hear the case. Knight v. Illinois, 
    480 U.S. 905
    , 
    107 S. Ct. 1346
     (1987).
    In 1990, Hampton filed a petition for postconviction relief
    in state court. Through counsel, he filed a supplemental
    petition after the Cook County public defender’s office was
    appointed to represent him. R. 48-5 at 108 et seq. In his
    supplemental petition, Hampton asserted that Rodgon had
    been ineffective for failing to investigate and interview ex-
    culpatory occurrence and character witnesses (R. 48-5 at
    112-13, 117-19), for failing to have Hampton testify in his
    own defense, and for failing to present evidence that
    Hampton was not a gang member as Rodgon had promised
    in his opening statement (R. 48-5 at 125-27). (Hampton’s
    petition included other claims not relevant here.) Hampton
    submitted an affidavit in support of the petition in which
    he averred, inter alia, that he had given Rodgon the names,
    addresses, and telephone numbers of Gregory Mallory,
    Clinton Williams, and Ronnie Garner, and he had told
    Rodgon that they would confirm that he had not partici-
    pated in the attacks. R. 48-5 at 168 ¶ 12. Williams and
    Garner signed affidavits indicating that Hampton was not
    a gang member, that they had attended the concert with
    him, and that Hampton was not involved in the attacks
    R. 48-5 at 180-81 ¶ 5 (Williams); 
    id.
     at 182-83 ¶ 5 (Garner).
    They also stated that Rodgon had never contacted them. R.
    48-5 at 180 ¶ 4 (Williams); 
    id.
     at 182 ¶ 4 (Garner).
    Hampton’s affidavit also indicated that he would have given
    Rodgon the names of potential character witnesses if
    Rodgon had asked him (R. 48-5 at 169 ¶ 15); and several of
    his friends and family members submitted affidavits aver-
    ring, among other things, that Hampton was not a gang
    member (R. 48-5 at 184 ¶ 5g; 
    id.
     at 187 ¶ 6b; 
    id.
     at 189
    ¶ 5h, i; 
    id.
     at 191 ¶ 5d; 
    id.
     at 193 ¶ 5d). Hampton’s supple-
    mental petition ultimately was assigned to Circuit Judge
    Colleen McSweeney Moore.
    No. 01-4186                                                      13
    On the State’s motion, Judge Moore summarily dismissed
    the bulk of Hampton’s petition, including his ineffectiveness
    claim. She determined that an evidentiary hearing was
    warranted on Hampton’s claim that he had been denied the
    right to testify on his own behalf. R. 48-7 at C38.4 But she
    4
    At the subsequent hearing on that issue, Rodgon explained that
    he had advised Hampton not to take the witness stand because
    Hampton would have testified that he knew everyone involved in
    the case, including the other defendants, that he had gone to the
    concert with some of the other defendants, that he had left with
    them, and that he had taken the bus home with them. R. 48-7 at
    D32. In Rodgon’s view, the specter of guilt by association was a
    “terrible problem.” 
    Id.
     at D33. Rodgon testified that he conveyed
    this concern to Hampton, but left it to his client to decide whether
    or not to testify. 
    Id.
     at D31. Hampton, by contrast, testified that
    Rodgon had never informed him that he had a right to testify and
    did not explain that the decision whether or not to testify was his
    rather than Rodgon’s to make. 
    Id.
     at D7-8. Hampton said that he
    had told Rodgon during the State’s case that he wanted to testify.
    
    Id.
     at D9-11. But according to Hampton, Rodgon did not discuss
    the matter with him again until after Rodgon announced to the
    court that the defense was resting its case. 
    Id.
     at D11. At that
    point, Hampton asked Rodgon why he could not take the witness
    stand, and Rodgon, according to Hampton, responded simply,
    “Don’t worry, everything will be all right.” 
    Id.
    After hearing both Rodgon and Hampton testify, Judge Moore
    credited Rodgon’s version of events over Hampton’s. See 
    id.
     at
    D58-59. She found that Rodgon and Hampton had discussed the
    possibility of him testifying and what Hampton would say, that
    Rodgon had informed Hampton of his right to testify and that the
    decision was his as opposed to Rodgon’s, and that Hampton had
    elected not to take the witness stand. 
    Id.
     She also found, in view
    of the “overwhelming” testimony from the “numerous eyewitnes-
    ses” in the State’s case who identified Hampton as one of the per-
    petrators, that Rodgon had understandably changed his mind
    about Hampton testifying in his own defense. 
    Id.
     at D57. “It is
    . . . not unreasonable during the course of a trial or as a matter of
    (continued...)
    14                                                 No. 01-4186
    concluded that no such hearing was warranted as to his al-
    legations of ineffectiveness. The judge thought the ineffec-
    tiveness claim meritless in part because Hampton could not
    show that the outcome of his trial might have been different
    had Rodgon taken the steps that Hampton alleged he had
    neglected to take. R. 48-7 at C34, C36. In the judge’s view,
    Hampton’s postconviction counsel was attempting to sub-
    stitute his own strategic judgment, informed by hindsight,
    for that of Rodgon. 
    Id.
     at C34-35. Judge Moore went on to
    “find . . . as a matter of fact from the record . . . that Mr.
    Ro[dg]on’s trial tactics, his strategy in the manner in which
    he represented Patrick Hampton’s interest was not ineffec-
    tive but rather was highly competent.” 
    Id.
     at C35. She
    noted that Rodgon had moved to quash Hampton’s arrest
    and had obtained an evidentiary hearing on that motion, he
    had moved to suppress the identification of Hampton and
    also obtained a hearing on that request, he had pursued
    additional motions regarding discovery and other issues in
    the case, and during the trial he had effectively cross-exam-
    ined the State’s witnesses. 
    Id.
     at C32-34. The judge rejected
    the notion that Mallory’s acquittal supplied reason to be-
    lieve that Hampton too might have been acquitted had
    Rodgon looked for the types of witnesses that Mallory’s
    counsel had presented. “[T]he evidence with regard to Mr.
    Mallory was so much weaker than the evidence with re-
    gard to Patrick Hampton,” she reasoned. 
    Id.
     at C35. In
    Hampton’s case, a security guard as well as the victims of
    the assault were able to identify Hampton; the case against
    Mallory, by contrast, rested solely on the testimony of a
    single victim (Denise M.). See 
    id. 4
    (...continued)
    concurring trial strategy between a defendant and his attorney to
    agree not to take the stand with the type of testimony that they
    had discussed Mr. Hampton testifying to, in light of the over-
    whelming evidence in the case.” 
    Id.
    No. 01-4186                                                15
    A divided Illinois Appellate Court affirmed the dismis-
    sal of Hampton’s ineffectiveness claims, concluding that
    Hampton’s allegations did not satisfy either of the two
    criteria set forth in Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    ,
    
    104 S. Ct. 2052
     (1984)—objectively unreasonable perfor-
    mance by counsel and prejudice resulting therefrom. People
    v. Hampton, No. 1-95-4282, 
    726 N.E.2d 1187
     (Ill. App. Ct.
    June 8, 1998) (unpublished) (hereinafter, “App. Ct. Order”).
    Hampton could not show prejudice, the court reasoned, giv-
    en the “overwhelming” proof of his guilt—namely, the fact
    that two of the victims of the attack, along with the security
    guard, had identified him as one of the perpetrators. App.
    Ct. Order at 5. Nor could Hampton establish that Rodgon’s
    performance as his attorney was objectively unreasonable.
    The decision whether to present a witness, the court stated,
    is a matter of strategy and “cannot support a claim of in-
    effective assistance of counsel.” 
    Id. at 6
    . The court noted
    that an attorney is only obliged to make a reasonable
    investigation or to make a reasonable decision that renders
    particular investigations unnecessary. 
    Id.
     Here, Rodgon
    knew that Hampton had attended the concert along with
    several other defendants and that he had been positively
    identified as one of the perpetrators by two victims and the
    guard. Against that backdrop, the court believed, Rodgon
    reasonably could have concluded that pursuing witnesses
    who would simply have confirmed that Hampton was pres-
    ent at the scene of the crime and linked to the other per-
    petrators of the offense posed as much of a detriment as a
    benefit to Hampton’s defense:
    The testimony of these other witnesses would have been
    redundant and only serve[d] to emphasize the fact that
    defendant went to the concert with the perpetrators,
    was present during the assault, and left with the
    perpetrators. It was not unreasonable for defense coun-
    sel to find this troubling. Indeed, it was defense coun-
    sel’s assessment that defendant faced a probability of
    “guilt by association.”
    16                                                No. 01-4186
    
    Id. 7
    . Thus, “[a]pplying a heavy measure of deference to de-
    fense counsel’s judgment,” the court concluded that Rodgon
    made a reasonable decision not to interview the witnesses
    that Hampton had named. 
    Id.
     As for Rodgon’s failure to
    fulfill the promise that Hampton would testify in his own
    defense,5 the court noted that Rodgon, at the time he made
    this statement, believed that Hampton would take the
    stand. 
    Id. at 8
    . Subsequently, however, he discussed with
    Hampton the problem of guilt by association, and he also
    became concerned that Hampton might not be able to with-
    stand the rigors of cross-examination. 
    Id.
     In the end,
    Rodgon had advised Hampton that the choice whether or
    not to testify was his to make, and Hampton had decided
    not to testify. 
    Id.
     The court viewed this as a change in trial
    strategy that could not support a claim of ineffectiveness.
    
    Id.
    Judge Sheila O’Brien dissented, reasoning that Hampton
    should have had the same opportunity that the State had to
    present occurrence witnesses:
    This crime occurred in a large area, with hundreds of
    people present. Defendant could have been present in
    the area and not have participated in the events and
    these occurrence witnesses could have corroborative in-
    formation. These allegations make a substantial show-
    ing of a violation of defendant’s constitutional rights.
    
    Id. at 21
    . The Illinois Supreme Court subsequently denied
    Hampton’s petition for leave to appeal. People v. Hampton,
    No. 85803, 
    705 N.E.2d 443
     (Ill. Oct. 6, 1998) (unpublished).
    5
    The court noted (App. Ct. Order at 8) but did not address
    Rodgon’s prediction that the evidence would show Hampton’s lack
    of involvement with any gang. Hampton had raised this promise
    in his supplemental post-conviction petition (R. 48-5 at 125-27)
    and in his appeal (R. 17 Ex. B at 17-18).
    No. 01-4186                                                   17
    Having exhausted his state court remedies, Hampton filed
    a pro se petition for a writ of habeas corpus in the district
    court. The court appointed counsel to represent Hampton,
    and his attorneys subsequently filed an amended petition
    which, in relevant part, re-asserted Hampton’s claim of
    ineffectiveness. R. 27. Over the State’s objection, the district
    court conducted an evidentiary hearing to explore Rodgon’s
    failure to investigate exculpatory witnesses.
    Hampton testified at that hearing that during the nine-
    month period that he was incarcerated in advance of trial,
    Rodgon had met with him at the jail on only one occasion,
    for about thirty to forty-five minutes. R. 59-1 at 10, 13.6
    During this meeting, which took place shortly after
    Hampton was arraigned in January 1982, Hampton told
    Rodgon that he had attended the concert with Ronnie
    Garner, Clinton Williams, and Gregory Mallory, and that
    all three could verify that he was not involved in the at-
    tacks and that he was not a gang member. 
    Id. at 13-14
    . All
    three lived in the same building as Hampton, and they
    had grown up together. 
    Id. at 14
    . Hampton gave Rodgon
    their contact information. 
    Id.
     He also pointed out Williams
    and Gregory Mallory to Rodgon at subsequent court pro-
    ceedings that they attended. 
    Id. at 16
    . Hampton assumed
    that Rodgon would contact them and call them to testify at
    trial. 
    Id. at 14, 16, 17
    . When Rodgon rested the defense case
    without calling these witnesses, Hampton asked him why
    he had not done so and Rodgon told him not to worry about
    the matter. 
    Id. at 18
    .
    6
    Hampton did have other two- or three-minute meetings with
    Rodgon during this period—in court or in the holding cell adjacent
    to the courtroom—but, according to Hampton, on those occasions
    Rodgon simply explained to him what had occurred in court that
    day or what he expected to happen at the next court date. R. 59-1
    at 11.
    18                                               No. 01-4186
    Rodgon testified that he believed the State’s case against
    Hampton was weak: there was no physical evidence impli-
    cating Hampton in the attacks; it was purely an identifica-
    tion case. R. 59-1 at 89. Hampton had not given him any
    information about potential defense witnesses, and for that
    reason Rodgon had not interviewed any such individuals.
    
    Id. at 99-100
    . Rodgon knew that Hampton lived in the
    Robert Taylor Homes and that “numerous people from
    there” had attended the concert. 
    Id. at 91
    . However, he did
    not know who these individuals were. Had Hampton given
    him the names of potential occurrence witnesses, Rodgon
    testified, he would have followed through and spoken to
    such witnesses. 
    Id. at 116
    . Rodgon did not visit the Robert
    Taylor Homes in an effort to identify potential witnesses,
    nor did he have an investigator do so. 
    Id. at 100-02
    . With
    two immaterial exceptions, Rodgon’s case file contained
    no notes reflecting interviews with potential witnesses, al-
    though he agreed that such notes would have been in the
    file. 
    Id. at 95-99, 151-52
    .
    In a 1987 letter to the Illinois Attorney Registration and
    Disciplinary Commission (“ARDC”) responding to a com-
    plaint Hampton had filed about his performance, Rodgon
    had indicated that he did speak with Hampton about pos-
    sible witnesses.
    Prior to trial I did talk to [Hampton] concerning wit-
    nesses that may or may not be called on his behalf. As
    I recall he told me at that time that he was with people
    who he had left the Amphitheatre with on a bus. Most
    of these people were later arrested and charged with
    the crime and plead[ed] guilty. I did not think it appro-
    priate for me to put on witnesses who had plead[ed]
    guilty to the crime to say that they were with Mr.
    Hampton at the time but that he did not participate in
    the crime.
    R. 58 Petitioner’s Ex. 1D at 3. When asked about the letter
    at the evidentiary hearing, Rodgon still maintained that
    No. 01-4186                                                 19
    Hampton had not given him the names of potential occur-
    rence witnesses. Had Hampton done so, Rodgon testified, he
    would have sent someone to speak with them. R. 59-1 at
    121. Rodgon indicated that he did not contact co-defendant
    Ronnie Garner because when defendants plead guilty (as he
    knew Garner had), they typically incriminate not only
    themselves but their co-defendants. 
    Id. at 123-24
    . He had
    not spoken with any of the other defendants who pleaded
    guilty for the same reason; Rodgon did not think it good
    strategy to put people who had pleaded guilty on the
    witness stand. 
    Id. at 125
    . He acknowledged, however (at
    first reluctantly), that one cannot assess the credibility of a
    prospective witness without first talking to him or her. 
    Id. at 147
    .
    Harold Winston, Hampton’s postconviction attorney, also
    testified at the hearing before Judge Kennelly. Winston
    recalled that after obtaining Rodgon’s trial file and review-
    ing the contents, he asked Rodgon about the lack of any
    notes from interviews with Hampton or other witnesses.
    Rodgon told Winston that he had given him all that he had.
    R. 59-1 at 32. Winston also indicated that in the course of
    preparing Hampton’s supplemental postconviction petition,
    he had spoken with Gregory Hubbard. Although Hubbard
    had given him helpful information, he had ultimately
    refused to sign an affidavit in support of Hampton’s peti-
    tion. 
    Id. at 54
    .
    W. Michael Fay had represented Ronald Mallory at the
    trial. He testified before Judge Kennelly that he went to
    the Robert Taylor Homes along with two assistant public
    defenders who were representing Ricky Knight to speak
    with other people who had attended the concert and had
    witnessed the attacks. R. 59-1 at 68-70. Fay did not recall,
    however, whether the occurrence witnesses he called to tes-
    tify in Mallory’s defense were among the people he spoke to
    at the Robert Taylor Homes. 
    Id. at 71
    . Fay was confident
    that, pursuant to Circuit Court rules, he would have given
    20                                              No. 01-4186
    Rodgon a copy of Mallory’s witness list. 
    Id. at 73
    . Gregory
    Hubbard was among the witnesses included on that list.
    
    Id.
     Fay also recalled that he spoke with Rodgon regularly
    about the case as they encountered one another in the hall-
    ways of the Criminal Courts building. 
    Id. at 79
    .
    Having heard both Hampton and Rodgon testify, Judge
    Kennelly credited Hampton’s testimony in relevant part. He
    found that Hampton had given Rodgon the names of
    potential witnesses but that Rodgon had failed to follow up
    with these witnesses. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *7-*8. Judge
    Kennelly thought that a decision by Rodgon not to pursue
    these witnesses might have been strategically justified vis
    à vis Garner, who had pleaded guilty to charges arising out
    of the incident and who had not contested the government’s
    version of events, which implicated Hampton. 
    Id. at *8
    , *16
    n.7. However, the failure to investigate would not have been
    justified as to Mallory and Williams. 
    Id. at *8
    , *16-*17. Not
    having interviewed those two individuals, Rodgon had no
    strategic basis for dismissing them as prospective wit-
    nesses. 
    Id. at *8
    .
    Judge Kennelly further observed that Rodgon admitted
    knowing that a group of people who lived at the same
    housing project as Hampton had attended the concert,
    and that some of those individuals might have witnessed
    the attacks. 
    Id. at *8
    . But Rodgon had made no effort to
    locate such individuals. 
    Id.
     Nor was there any indication
    that Rodgon had spoken with the attorneys representing
    Hampton’s co-defendants about their witnesses. 
    Id.
     At least
    one of those witnesses—Gregory Hubbard—could have ex-
    culpated Hampton. 
    Id.
     Finally, Rodgon had never asked
    Hampton for the names of witnesses who could verify that
    he was not in a gang, nor had he made any other efforts to
    locate such witnesses. 
    Id.
    Ronnie Garner also testified at the evidentiary hearing
    before Judge Kennelly. At the time of the concert, Garner
    No. 01-4186                                                 21
    had known Hampton for ten years and was his friend.
    According to Garner, Hampton was not a gang member.
    Garner had attended the concert along with Ronnie Jack-
    son, Sandelle Poole, Ezra Garner (Ronnie’s brother), and
    Hampton; Hampton also left the concert with them. During
    the concert, Hampton was seated near Ronnie Garner and
    was within his sight at all times. Garner testified that
    Hampton was not part of the crowd that attacked the three
    Latinos. Garner said that no one had ever asked him what
    he knew about Hampton’s involvement in the attacks, nor
    had anyone asked him to testify on Hampton’s behalf. He
    would have testified in Hampton’s defense had he been
    asked. Garner himself had been charged with participating
    in the attacks, however; and he ultimately had pleaded
    guilty (against his lawyer’s advice) and was sentenced
    to the six months he had already served in pretrial deten-
    tion. On the witness stand before Judge Kennelly, Garner
    insisted that he had not, in fact, participated in the attacks,
    but had elected to plead guilty in order to avoid a poten-
    tially much longer term had he been tried and convicted.
    And although he had not contested the version of events
    that the prosecutor recited at the change of plea hearing—a
    version that had implicated Garner and Hampton both—
    neither had he endorsed it as accurate. R. 57-3 at 21-27; see
    R. 58, Petitioner’s Ex. 11 at 31-32 (State proffers factual
    basis for plea and Judge Strayhorn finds it sufficient to
    accept plea but Garner not asked to endorse it); compare 
    id. at 7
     (co-defendant Ford asked to stipulate to State’s prof-
    fer). Judge Kennelly found Garner’s testimony to be credi-
    ble. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *9.
    Gregory Mallory, who had been a next-door neighbor and
    friend of Hampton’s for about nine years at the time of the
    concert, also testified. Gregory had attended the concert,
    was seated about five to ten feet from Hampton, and said
    that Hampton was not near the attacking crowd. As noted
    above, Gregory’s brother Ronald Mallory was tried along
    22                                               No. 01-4186
    with Hampton, and Gregory had testified in Ronald’s (suc-
    cessful) defense. Although Gregory said that he would have
    testified on Hampton’s behalf, Hampton’s attorney had
    never contacted him. Gregory had begun using heroin in
    1989, and was still addicted to the narcotic when the evi-
    dentiary hearing took place in 2001. He was convicted
    of felony theft in 1981, and for heroin possession in 1994.
    Although Gregory did not believe that his longtime abuse of
    heroin had affected his memory, he answered a number of
    the questions put to him with answers like “okay” and “I
    guess so,” and he was unable to recall certain details about
    the concert (e.g., precisely what row he sat in) and about the
    trial (including the fact that it involved three juries). But
    Gregory had not been a heroin user at the time of the
    concert or at the time of Hampton’s trial. And although
    Judge Kennelly characterized Mallory’s memory as imper-
    fect, he found his testimony credible nonetheless.
    Unsurprisingly, given the passage of time and the
    effects of heroin use, [Gregory Mallory’s] memory of the
    incident has faded a bit. But the issue is not whether he
    would make a good witness if Hampton’s trial were held
    today, but what effect his testimony might have had at
    the 1982 trial. The Court finds that Mallory would have
    made an effective defense witness at that trial.
    
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *9.
    Clinton Williams died in July 1995, six years before the
    evidentiary hearing took place. He too had been a friend of
    Hampton’s and had attended the concert. Williams was
    alive at the time that Hampton had petitioned for post-
    conviction relief in state court and had signed an affidavit
    in support of that petition indicating that Hampton had
    not participated in the attacks. R. 48-5 at 180-81. Judge
    Kennelly discerned no reason to believe that Williams
    would not have been a credible witness on Hampton’s be-
    No. 01-4186                                                 23
    half. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *9. The judge pointed out that
    there was no evidence linking Williams to the group that
    had perpetrated the attacks. 
    Id.
    Before reaching the merits of Hampton’s failure-to-
    investigate claim, the district judge determined that there
    were no procedural obstacles that precluded either the evi-
    dentiary hearing he had convened or consideration of the
    merits of the claim. The court first concluded that Hampton
    had fairly presented the claim in state court and thus had
    exhausted his state court remedies with respect to that
    claim. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (b)(1), (c); O’Sullivan v. Boerckel,
    
    526 U.S. 838
    , 844-45, 
    119 S. Ct. 1728
    , 1732 (1999); Picard
    v. Connor, 
    404 U.S. 270
    , 275-76, 
    92 S. Ct. 509
    , 512
    (1971). This was so, in the court’s view, notwithstanding
    Hampton’s failure to submit an affidavit from Gregory
    Mallory in support of his postconviction petition. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *10. As the court observed, a claim advanced
    in a federal habeas petition may be said to have been fairly
    presented to the state courts so long as that claim is funda-
    mentally the same claim that the petitioner asked the state
    courts to resolve. 
    Id. at *10
    , citing Boyko v. Parke, 
    259 F.3d 781
    , 789 (7th Cir. 2001). This was true of Hampton’s inef-
    fectiveness claim, the judge reasoned. Although Hampton
    had not tendered an affidavit from Gregory Mallory to
    substantiate the ineffectiveness claim (as he had from
    Williams and Garner), Hampton had, in his own affidavit,
    averred that Gregory’s name was among those he had given
    to his attorney as a witness, and Hampton had argued in
    his petition that Rodgon should have contacted and inter-
    viewed Gregory. Under these circumstances, Hampton’s
    federal claim was not materially different from the one
    Hampton had pursued in state court. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at
    *10.
    Nor did Hampton’s failure to submit an affidavit from
    Gregory constitute a procedural default that barred federal
    consideration of the ineffectiveness claim. 
    Id. at *11
    ; see
    24                                               No. 01-4186
    Harris v. Reed, 
    489 U.S. 255
    , 261-62, 
    109 S. Ct. 1038
    , 1042
    (1989). Although the Illinois Appellate Court had noted the
    absence of an affidavit from Gregory in its discussion of the
    claim, it had nonetheless addressed the merits of the claim
    in its entirety and without relying on the procedural flaw of
    the missing affidavit. Because the state court chose to
    ignore this default, Judge Kennelly reasoned, it posed no
    obstacle to federal consideration of the ineffectiveness
    claim. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *11.
    Next, the judge found that a federal statutory restriction
    on evidentiary hearings in habeas proceedings did not fore-
    close the court from hearing testimony in support of
    Hampton’s ineffectiveness claim. 
    Id.
     at *12-*14. Subject to
    narrow exceptions, 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (e)(2), added by the
    Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996
    (“AEDPA”), forbids a district court from holding an eviden-
    tiary hearing on a habeas claim if the petitioner failed to
    develop the factual basis of that claim in state court. As the
    district court acknowledged, we have held that this limita-
    tion applies not just to an evidentiary hearing, but to any
    means used in lieu of such a hearing to expand the record
    in order to introduce new factual information. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *12, citing Boyko, 
    259 F.3d at 790
    . The State
    argued that section 2254(e)(2) constrained the court’s abil-
    ity not only to convene an evidentiary hearing, but also its
    ability to consider the affidavit from Gregory Mallory that
    Hampton had submitted in support of his habeas petition,
    given that Hampton had not submitted an affidavit from
    Gregory in support of his postconviction petition in state
    court. But this provision forecloses an expansion of the
    record only if the habeas petitioner’s failure to develop the
    record appropriately in state court was due to the peti-
    tioner’s lack of diligence or some larger fault attributable
    to the petitioner or his counsel. See Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 420
    , 432, 
    120 S. Ct. 1479
    , 1488 (2000); see also
    Matheny v. Anderson, 
    253 F.3d 1025
    , 1039 (7th Cir. 2001)
    No. 01-4186                                                    25
    (quoting Burris v. Parke, 
    116 F.3d 256
    , 258-59 (7th Cir.
    1997), cert. denied, 
    522 U.S. 990
    , 
    118 S. Ct. 462
     (1997)),
    cert. denied, 
    535 U.S. 1030
    , 
    122 S. Ct. 1635
     (2002).
    In the district court’s view, there was no evidence that
    Hampton had been anything but diligent in pursuing his
    ineffectiveness claim in state court. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at
    *12. Although the materials in support of Hampton’s
    post-conviction petition did not include an affidavit from
    Gregory, Hampton had identified Gregory in his own affi-
    davit, averring that he had given Gregory’s name and con-
    tact information to Rodgon as an eyewitness who might
    testify on his behalf. The court also noted that Hampton
    had asked the lower state court to conduct an evidentiary
    hearing but that the State had opposed a hearing and the
    state court had refused to conduct one. Had a hearing been
    held, the court theorized, “it is overwhelmingly likely that
    [Gregory] Mallory would have been called to testify.” 
    Id. at *12
    . Consequently, although the state court record lacked
    an affidavit from Gregory that outlined what his testimony
    on Hampton’s behalf might have been (had Rodgon pursued
    him as a witness), that omission could not be ascribed to a
    lack of diligence on Hampton’s part. “Having been rebuffed
    at the prosecution’s request in his attempt to make a com-
    plete record in state court, Hampton cannot be faulted for
    his failure to do so or accused of a lack of diligence.” Id.7
    7
    The court reached a different conclusion with respect to the af-
    fidavit of Farod Poole, which Hampton had submitted in support
    of his supplemental habeas petition. According to that affidavit,
    Poole was with Hampton at the concert, he had witnessed the
    attacks, and he saw that Hampton was not a participant. R. 27
    Ex. E ¶ 5. Poole was not mentioned in Hampton’s supplemental
    postconviction petition, however, and no affidavit from him was
    tendered to the state postconviction court. Although the district
    court remained convinced that Hampton had fairly presented his
    (continued...)
    26                                                    No. 01-4186
    Having thus determined that the AEDPA posed no bar to
    taking additional evidence on Hampton’s claim, the court
    turned to pre-AEDPA standards. See Matheny, 
    253 F.3d at 1039
    . Under those rules, an evidentiary hearing on a
    habeas petitioner’s claim is required if the petitioner has
    alleged facts that would entitle him to relief and the state
    courts, for reasons beyond his control, did not consider
    his claim in a full and fair hearing. See Townsend v. Sain,
    
    372 U.S. 293
    , 312-13, 
    83 S. Ct. 745
    , 757 (1963), overruled
    on other grounds by Keeney v. Tamayo-Reyes, 
    504 U.S. 1
    ,
    
    112 S. Ct. 1715
     (1992); Wright v. Gramley, 
    125 F.3d 1038
    ,
    1044 (7th Cir. 1997). A full and fair hearing is one that af-
    forded the petitioner a complete opportunity to present
    the facts relevant to his constitutional claim. See Matheny,
    
    253 F.3d at 1039
    ; Spreitzer v. Peters, 
    114 F.3d 1435
    , 1456 &
    n.9 (7th Cir. 1997), disposition clarified, 
    127 F.3d 551
     (7th
    Cir. 1997), cert. denied, 
    522 U.S. 1120
    , 
    118 S. Ct. 1060
    (1998). Judge Kennelly found that the Illinois post-convic-
    tion court, when it dismissed the relevant portion of
    Hampton’s postconviction petition without a hearing, had
    deprived Hampton of this opportunity:
    The state court did not permit Hampton to explore his
    trial counsel’s reasons—if he had any—for failing to
    interview and call the witnesses whose names Hampton
    had given him. Nor did it permit him to address the is-
    7
    (...continued)
    ineffectiveness claim to the state courts (because Poole’s affidavit
    did not alter the nature of Hampton’s claim), see 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *11, it found that consideration of Poole’s affidavit
    was barred under section 2254(e)(2), 
    id. at *14
    . Hampton had not
    established in state court what Poole’s testimony would have
    been, nor had he offered any explanation for the omission. 
    Id.
     “Un-
    der the circumstances, the Court has no alternative but to find
    that Hampton lacked due diligence in state court in this regard,
    thus barring this Court’s consideration of Poole’s affidavit.” 
    Id.
    No. 01-4186                                                    27
    sue of prejudice, which would have required consider-
    ation of the effect of [those witnesses’] testimony.
    
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *13.8 The judge pointed out that in
    both Matheny and Bruce v. United States, 
    256 F.3d 592
    , 600
    (7th Cir. 2001), we had concluded that an evidentiary hear-
    ing was necessary in order to evaluate the ineffectiveness
    claims asserted in those cases. Judge Kennelly believed
    that this was true here as well. Testimony from Hampton’s
    counsel as well as Hampton’s proposed witnesses would en-
    able the court to assess the adequacy of Rodgon’s represen-
    tation of Hampton and to determine whether Hampton was
    prejudiced by Rodgon’s failure to interview (and summon to
    testify) Hampton’s witnesses. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *13.
    The Illinois Appellate Court had said that Rodgon’s
    failure to follow up with Hampton’s occurrence witnesses
    was based on a strategic decision to avoid the specter of
    guilt by association that such witnesses might have raised
    or enhanced (App. Ct. Order at 7); but the district court
    found to the contrary. Although section 2254(e)(1) provides
    that state court findings of fact are owed a presumption of
    8
    Although the court’s analysis on this point was framed in terms
    of Gregory alone, the focus properly is on the need to hear him
    and the other witnesses Hampton has identified testify. Section
    2254(e)(2) and procedural default rules deal with whether the un-
    derlying factual basis for the claim was adequately developed in
    state court and whether state procedural rules were followed. The
    Townsend analysis, by contrast, addresses the need for the federal
    habeas court to conduct an evidentiary hearing in order to fairly
    resolve the petitioner’s claim. Here, for example, that analysis
    considers whether it is necessary to hear Hampton’s witnesses
    testify or whether his failure-to-investigate claim can be resolved
    solely on the affidavits, as the state courts did. This analysis
    therefore must take into consideration not only Gregory’s prof-
    fered testimony, but the entire body of evidence relevant to
    Hampton’s claim.
    28                                              No. 01-4186
    correctness, no such presumption was warranted here, in
    the district court’s view. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *15. The
    state court’s finding was “entirely speculative,” with no
    basis in the record before the state courts. 
    Id.
     The only
    evidence that Rodgon was concerned about guilt by associa-
    tion came from a limited hearing that the state trial court
    had conducted on Hampton’s separate claim regarding
    Rodgon’s failure to have Hampton himself testify. Id.; see
    n.4, supra; R.48-7 at D32-33. Rodgon’s rationale for not
    calling Hampton to the witness stand could not be “trans-
    mogrified” into an explanation for his failure to conduct an
    adequate pretrial investigation, the district court reasoned.
    
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *15. Moreover, even if the appellate
    court’s characterization of Rodgon’s conduct as “strategic”
    were presumed correct, Hampton had succeeded in rebut-
    ting that presumption by clear and convincing evidence.
    Id.; see § 2254(e)(1). The court found that Rodgon had no
    reason not to follow up on the eyewitness information that
    Hampton had given him or not to make his own effort to
    identify other occurrence witnesses. Rodgon had conceded
    on the witness stand that an attorney cannot decide wheth-
    er to call a witness who is not also a co-defendant without
    first interviewing that witness, barring some other external
    factor known to the attorney (such as a significant felony
    record or the immateriality of the witness’s testimony) that
    detracts from the value of that witness’s possible testimony.
    
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *15.
    The district court also viewed the appellate court’s
    strategy determination as either contrary to or an unrea-
    sonable application of Strickland’s observation that strate-
    gic choices based on something less than a complete investi-
    gation are reasonable to the extent that reasonable profes-
    sional judgment would support limits on that investigation.
    
    Id. at *16
    ; see Strickland v. Washington, 
    supra,
     
    466 U.S. at 690-91
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2066
    . Here, there was no evidence of
    No. 01-4186                                               29
    any judgment at all on Rodgon’s part, and it was not the
    court’s duty to fill that void with its own judgment. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *16.
    Where the prosecution relies heavily on eyewitness tes-
    timony that might be rebutted by other eyewitnesses, the
    district court emphasized, the attorney’s duty to investi-
    gate such witnesses is critical. 
    Id.
     In this case, Rodgon had
    cross-examined the State’s witnesses and exposed the
    weaknesses in their identifications of Hampton, but he
    made no effort to determine whether Hampton had more of
    a defense than that. 
    Id.
     Cases including Washington v.
    Smith, 
    219 F.3d 620
    , 631-32 (7th Cir. 2000); Williams v.
    Washington, 
    59 F.3d 673
    , 681 (7th Cir. 1995); Harris v.
    Reed, 
    894 F.2d 871
    , 878-79 (7th Cir. 1990); and Sullivan v.
    Fairman, 
    819 F.2d 1382
    , 1389 (7th Cir. 1987), support the
    notion that the failure to investigate exculpatory witnes-
    ses can amount to ineffective assistance of counsel. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *17-*18. Rodgon’s ineffectiveness was not
    limited to his failure to interview the eyewitnesses that
    Hampton had identified for him, but included his failure to
    make an effort of his own to locate other eyewitnesses. 
    Id. at *18
    . The court noted that if Rodgon simply had paid
    attention to the witness lists of Hampton’s co-defendants,
    he would have found at least one witness (Gregory Hub-
    bard) who could have exonerated Hampton. 
    Id.
    The district court believed that Rodgon was also ineffec-
    tive for failing to look for witnesses who could confirm that
    Hampton was not a gang member. 
    Id.
     at *18-*19. The
    Illinois Appellate Court had written this omission off as a
    failure to call witnesses who might have testified that
    Hampton was a “decent person.” App. Ct. Order at 16. But
    Hampton’s supplemental postconviction petition, along with
    the affidavits he had submitted in support of that petition,
    made clear that the gist of such witnesses’ testimony was
    not simply that Hampton was of good character, but that
    30                                              No. 01-4186
    he was not a gang member. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *19. Gang
    affiliation was made relevant by the strong overtones of
    gang activity that Powell had observed in the group of men
    he saw marching toward the stage of the theater (the
    chanting of gang slogans and hand signals). The unfulfilled
    promise that Rodgon made in his opening statement—that
    the jury would hear evidence that Hampton was not in-
    volved in a gang—revealed that Rodgon was aware of the
    importance of this issue. 
    Id. at *18
    . Proof that Hampton had
    no gang connections would have tended to undercut testi-
    mony that he was part of the group that attacked the three
    victims. 
    Id. at *19
    . Yet Rodgon had never so much as asked
    Hampton for the names of individuals who could attest to
    his lack of gang involvement. 
    Id.
    The Illinois Appellate Court had also held that even if
    Rodgon had rendered ineffective assistance, Hampton could
    not demonstrate that he was prejudiced by his attorney’s
    performance. App. Ct. Order at 5. “In light of the over-
    whelming evidence of defendant’s guilt, i.e., two of the vic-
    tims and a security guard identified defendant, defendant
    cannot establish that but for his defense counsel’s perfor-
    mance the outcome of his trial would have been different.”
    
    Id.
     The district court concluded that this one-sentence
    disposition of the prejudice prong of the ineffectiveness in-
    quiry amounted to an unreasonable application of Strick-
    land.
    In the district court’s view, the State’s case against
    Hampton was “far from unassailable.” 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at
    *19. Heinrichs, the security guard, conceded that on the
    night of the attacks he had only seen the assailant he later
    identified as Hampton for three or four seconds, and he had
    not picked Hampton out of a line-up until after he had seen
    Hampton’s picture in a television news report. 
    Id.
     Denise
    M. and Martha N. likewise had only gotten brief glimpses
    of Hampton and had been unable to describe him except as
    No. 01-4186                                                31
    an African-American male for the police. 
    Id.
     Hugo M. never
    identified Hampton notwithstanding the fact that he was at
    Denise M.’s side during the assault. 
    Id.
     Each of the wit-
    nesses who identified Hampton had witnessed the assault
    “under extremely stressful . . . near-riot conditions.” 
    Id. at *19
    .
    The fact that the jury acquitted Hampton of the attempt-
    ed rape of Martha N. demonstrated the likelihood that the
    testimony of exculpatory occurrence and other witnes-
    ses might have produced a different outcome on the other
    charges. 
    Id. at *20
    . Martha N. had identified Hampton as
    one of her attackers, and had done so under the same cir-
    cumstances as the other two witnesses who identified
    Hampton. But in Martha N.’s case, the record had supplied
    a basis to challenge her identification—the written report
    indicating that Martha N. had picked from the line-up
    someone other than Hampton. Notwithstanding testimony
    from a detective that the written report was erroneous, the
    jury’s decision to acquit Hampton on this charge suggested
    to the district court that the jury had doubts about the
    strength of Martha N.’s identification. 
    Id.
     This in turn in-
    dicated to the court that if the jury had been given reason
    to doubt the identifications by Denise M. and the guard be-
    yond arguments about the circumstances under which they
    had seen the assailant, it was reasonably likely that the
    jury’s decision on the other charges might have been dif-
    ferent as well. 
    Id.
    Rodney Mallory’s acquittal on all charges supplied addi-
    tional, “powerful evidence” that an adequate investigation
    into defense witnesses might well have produced a different
    result for Hampton. 
    Id. at *20
    . Mallory’s attorney had put
    on the very type of eyewitness testimony that Rodgon had
    failed to pursue, including Rodney’s brother Gregory, whom
    Hampton had cited to Rodgon as an eyewitness. 
    Id.
     Rodney
    Mallory was acquitted notwithstanding the testimony of
    32                                              No. 01-4186
    Denise M. that he had attempted to place his penis in her
    mouth and the testimony of Keith Powell that Rodney was
    among the group of individuals who walked toward the
    stage of the Amphitheatre. 
    Id.
     True, no security guard had
    identified Rodney. 
    Id.
     Even so, the favorable outcome for
    Rodney Mallory persuaded the district court that it was
    reasonably probable that a defense founded in part upon
    exculpatory occurrence witnesses would have resulted in
    Hampton’s acquittal. 
    Id.
    The district court found further that Rodgon’s failure to
    investigate and present witnesses to establish Hampton’s
    lack of gang affiliation, although not dispositive by itself,
    was also “highly prejudicial” to Hampton. 
    Id.
     Gang affilia-
    tion was an aspect of the prosecution’s case that tended to
    buttress the witnesses’ identification of Hampton. 
    Id.
     Sow-
    ing doubt about the notion that Hampton would have parti-
    cipated in gang-related activity thus would have given the
    jury reason to question the identification of Hampton. 
    Id.
    Rodgon’s failure to keep the promise he made during
    opening that Hampton would testify in his own defense re-
    inforced the district court’s conclusion that Rodgon’s repre-
    sentation of Hampton was ineffective. 
    Id.
     at *21-*22. The
    Illinois Appellate Court had chalked up Hampton’s failure
    to testify to a change in trial strategy driven by Rodgon’s
    concern over the prospect of guilt by association. App. Ct.
    Order at 8. Had Hampton testified, he would have admitted
    that he was present at the scene of the crime and that he
    arrived and left with others implicated in the attacks. But
    if that prospect was what worried Rodgon, the district court
    noted, it was a possibility that was as apparent before trial
    as it was when the time came to decide whether Hampton
    would take the witness stand; there was no indication that
    anything relevant to the guilt-by-association concern had
    changed over the course of the trial. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at
    *21. Consequently, the district court believed, it was “fool-
    hardy and objectively unreasonable for [Rodgon] to promise
    No. 01-4186                                                 33
    that Hampton would testify.” 
    Id.
     The court acknowledged
    that an attorney’s failure to keep a promise made in an
    opening statement will rarely supply the basis for an in-
    effectiveness claim. 
    Id.
     In this case, however, nothing
    occurred during the State’s case against Hampton that
    altered the pros and cons of Hampton taking the stand.
    
    Id.
     at *21-*22. True, had he testified, Hampton would
    have had to explain his presence at the scene of the crime,
    but, the court pointed out, Rodney Mallory had been able
    to do so successfully. 
    Id. at *22
    . Under the circumstances,
    the court found it objectively unreasonable for Rodgon to
    make and then abandon the promise that Hampton would
    take the stand. 
    Id.
     “The Appellate Court’s contrary conclu-
    sion, based on a finding that was without any support
    in the record, was an unreasonable application of Strick-
    land.” 
    Id.
     Rodgon’s failure to fulfill the promise, the district
    court went on, was also prejudicial to Hampton. 
    Id.
    Hampton’s failure to take the stand as promised gave rise
    to a negative inference about what the content of his tes-
    timony might have been. 
    Id.
     The court could not say that
    this alone likely affected the outcome of the trial. However,
    the decision not to keep the promise “significantly buttres-
    se[d]” the court’s conclusion that Rodgon’s overall perfor-
    mance likely did influence the outcome. 
    Id.
    Having concluded that Hampton was deprived of the
    effective assistance of counsel, Judge Kennelly granted his
    petition for a writ of habeas corpus. He ordered Hampton
    released from prison unless, within thirty days, the State
    announced its intent to retry Hampton. 
    Id. at *25
    . The
    State appealed, and subsequently it asked the district court
    to stay its judgment. Hampton in turn asked the court to
    order his release pending appeal. By this time, Hampton
    had been incarcerated for twenty years, but even with cred-
    it for good time, he could not expect to be discharged from
    prison prior to January 2012. After weighing the equities,
    Judge Kennelly stayed the judgment to the extent of reliev-
    34                                               No. 01-4186
    ing the State, pending appeal, of the obligation to announce
    its intent to retry Hampton within thirty days. Hampton v.
    Leibach, No. 99 C 5473, 
    2001 WL 1618737
    , at *3 (N.D. Ill.
    Dec. 18, 2001). The judge also ordered Hampton released
    from prison on bond pending appeal. 
    Id.
     at *2-*3.
    Hampton’s release was conditioned on his sister’s willing-
    ness to execute a quitclaim deed on her home as security.
    
    Id. at *3
    . He also required Hampton to “live with his sister
    in her home, restrict his travel to the State of Illinois, make
    reasonable efforts to seek employment, and avoid contact
    with the victims of the offenses with which he was charged
    in state court.” 
    Id.
     Although this court subsequently stayed
    Hampton’s release pending appeal, United States Supreme
    Court Justice John Paul Stevens, acting as Circuit Justice,
    granted Hampton’s application to vacate that stay, and the
    full Court subsequently declined to overturn his order. On
    January 28, 2002, this court ordered Hampton released at
    such time as the district court’s conditions on his release
    were satisfied.
    II.
    A. Evidentiary Hearing
    The State’s initial contentions on appeal concern the
    district court’s decision to conduct an evidentiary hearing
    on Hampton’s ineffectiveness claim. The State does not
    quarrel with the lower court’s determination that Hampton
    fairly presented his failure-to-investigate claim to the state
    courts. See § 2254(b)(1), (c); Boyko, 
    259 F.3d at 788-89
    . But
    for three reasons, the State contends that the decision to
    hold a hearing on that claim was, either in part or in whole,
    erroneous: (1) Hampton did not submit an affidavit from
    Gregory Mallory in support of his supplemental petition for
    postconviction relief, and to that extent failed to develop the
    factual basis for his claim in state court; (2) Hampton’s
    failure to tender an affidavit from Gregory in state court,
    No. 01-4186                                                35
    which the Illinois Appellate Court noted, amounts to a
    procedural default that bars federal consideration of the
    ineffectiveness claim; and (3) there was, in any case, no
    need for an evidentiary hearing because there were no
    factual disputes that required a hearing to resolve.
    1. Failure to Submit Affidavit from Gregory Mallory.
    As the district court recognized, section 2254(e)(2) bars
    a district court from conducting an evidentiary hearing
    or otherwise permitting an expansion of the evidentiary
    record in support of a habeas claim if the petitioner failed
    to develop the factual basis for his claim in state court. In
    the supplemental postconviction petition that Hampton
    filed in state court, Hampton identified the occurrence wit-
    nesses whose names he had allegedly given to Rodgon,
    he submitted his own affidavit averring that he supplied
    Rodgon with their names and contact information, and
    he submitted affidavits from two of those witnesses—
    Williams and Garner—which in turn confirmed that they
    would have given exculpatory testimony on Hampton’s
    behalf. But Hampton did not submit an affidavit from
    Gregory Mallory. As we have noted, Hampton’s post-
    conviction counsel, Harold Winston, testified at the eviden-
    tiary hearing in the district court, and Winston explained
    that he had interviewed Gregory, that Gregory had pro-
    vided helpful information, but that Gregory had been un-
    willing to sign an affidavit reflecting that information and
    that Winston lacked the authority to compel him to do so.
    R.59-1 at 54-55. The State contends that in failing to tender
    an affidavit from Gregory Mallory, Hampton failed to devel-
    op the basis for his ineffectiveness claim.
    It is not entirely clear from the briefing whether the State
    believes that this omission wholly forecloses all expansion
    of the record in support of Hampton’s ineffectiveness claim,
    or only the submission and consideration of Gregory’s af-
    36                                               No. 01-4186
    fidavit and testimony. We shall assume that the State
    means only to argue that Hampton is foreclosed from tend-
    ering Gregory’s affidavit and testimony, as it is otherwise
    clear that Hampton tendered affidavits from Williams and
    Garner in state court and thus developed his ineffectiveness
    claim to that extent. This is consistent with the State’s pre-
    sentation at oral argument. There its counsel argued, in es-
    sence, that a failure-to-investigate claim akin to Hampton’s
    is both defined and limited by the particular witnesses that
    the petitioner charges his counsel with failing to contact. In
    other words, a failure to investigate claim supported by the
    affidavits of two exculpatory eyewitnesses (like Garner and
    Williams) is a claim based on those two witnesses alone;
    and if the petitioner at a later date presents affidavits from
    additional eyewitnesses that counsel failed to contact, he
    has inevitably transformed his ineffectiveness claim into a
    new claim with a distinct factual basis. Thus, in the State’s
    view, if the affidavits of those additional witnesses were not
    presented to the state courts, then section 2254(e)(2) pre-
    cludes the petitioner from relying on those witnesses in
    federal court, because they represent a factual basis for the
    ineffectiveness claim that was never developed in state
    court.
    Whether the State is correct to parse the failure-to-inves-
    tigate claim and its factual basis in this way is a matter on
    which we reserve judgment. The essence of Hampton’s
    claim is that there were multiple eyewitnesses to the at-
    tacks who could have exonerated him and that his counsel
    failed to contact any of them. In support of that claim, he
    presented the affidavits of two of those witnesses (Garner
    and Williams) to the state postconviction court, in this way
    documenting the nature of the exculpatory testimony that
    was available had his counsel pursued this line of investiga-
    tion. Mallory’s proffered testimony was not materially
    different from that of Garner or Williams and so did not
    alter the basic nature of Hampton’s ineffectiveness claim;
    No. 01-4186                                                 37
    his was just one more iteration of the exculpatory testimony
    that was available to the defense but not investigated
    by Rodgon. In that sense, the failure to tender an affidavit
    from Gregory to the state court arguably did not constitute
    a failure to develop the factual basis for the ineffective-
    ness claim for purposes of section 2254(e)(2)—that basis
    was fleshed out with the affidavits of Garner and Williams.
    We need not resolve the point, however. We may assume
    that the omission of Gregory’s affidavit from Hampton’s
    postconviction petition might preclude him from presenting
    Gregory’s affidavit and testimony in federal court if the
    omission was attributable to a lack of diligence on
    Hampton’s part.
    As the district court noted, a petitioner’s failure to devel-
    op the factual basis of his habeas claim in state court will
    bar expansion of the record in federal court only if this fail-
    ure was due to a lack of diligence or some greater fault
    attributable to the petitioner himself. Williams v. Taylor,
    
    supra,
     
    529 U.S. at 432
    , 
    120 S. Ct. at 1488
    ; Burris v. Parke,
    supra, 
    116 F.3d at 258-59
    ; see also, e.g., Newell v. Hanks,
    
    283 F.3d 827
    , 838 (7th Cir. 2002). The relevant inquiry is
    thus not simply whether the petitioner theoretically could
    have discovered the evidence while he was still in the state
    forum, but whether he made appropriate efforts to locate
    and present that evidence to the state courts. See Williams,
    429 U.S. at 435, 
    120 S. Ct. at 1490
    . Winston’s testimony
    in the district court reveals that he had spoken with
    Gregory, that he had obtained information from Gregory
    that would have supported Hampton’s claim, but that, in
    the end, Gregory refused to sign the affidavit. R. 59-1 at 54.
    Hampton argues that his failure to submit an affidavit from
    Gregory was thus due to circumstances beyond his control
    (Gregory’s refusal to cooperate) and not to his own lack of
    diligence or some other fault that may deemed his responsi-
    bility. Notably, the State does not quarrel with the notion
    that a witness’s refusal to execute an affidavit may excuse
    38                                              No. 01-4186
    the petitioner’s failure to develop the record as to that
    witness’s prospective testimony. See State Br. at 34-39; see
    also Newell, 
    283 F.3d at 838
    . It makes two other arguments
    instead. First, it suggests that this court erred in Burris
    when it held that the failure to develop the factual basis
    of a claim will preclude an evidentiary hearing under
    section 2254(e)(2) only if the failure is attributable to the
    petitioner. In the State’s view, the AEDPA bars expansion
    of the record at the federal level even when the petitioner
    and his counsel are not to blame for failing to develop the
    factual basis for the claim in state court. State Br. at 35.
    Second, the State argues that if Hampton attempted but
    was unable to procure an affidavit from Gregory, his at-
    torney should have executed an affidavit to that effect and
    presented that affidavit to the state postconviction court.
    State Reply Br. at 2.
    The State’s first argument is untenable given the Su-
    preme Court’s intervening opinion in Williams. The Court
    in Williams did not construe section 2254(e)(2) to bar an
    evidentiary hearing whenever the underlying facts were not
    developed in state court. The Court instead held that evi-
    dentiary expansion is foreclosed only when the failure to
    develop the factual record sooner is due to “a lack of dili-
    gence, or some greater fault, attributable to the prisoner or
    the prisoner’s counsel.” 
    529 U.S. at 432
    , 
    120 S. Ct. at 1488
    .
    The rule that we announced in Burris is consistent with
    Williams; indeed, the Court cited Burris (among other
    authorities) with approval. 
    Ibid.
    The State’s second argument misapprehends the nature
    of the inquiry called for by section 2254(e)(2). The State
    faults Hampton and his counsel for not making a record in
    state court as to counsel’s inability to obtain an affidavit
    from Gregory. But when the petitioner has not fully de-
    veloped the factual basis for his claim in state court, it is
    the federal court that must decide whether that omission
    No. 01-4186                                                       39
    forecloses expansion of the record pursuant to section
    2254(e)(2). To the extent that the state court record sheds
    light on whether the petitioner could have developed the
    facts underlying his claim while he was still in the state
    forum, it is obviously relevant to this inquiry. Cf. Williams,
    
    529 U.S. at 437-40
    , 
    120 S. Ct. at 1491-92
     (references to
    psyciatric record in state court proceedings demonstrated
    that petitioner, if diligent, could have located report and
    raised its non-disclosure in state habeas proceeding). But
    when the reason is not self-evident from the state record,
    nothing in section 2254(e)(2) precludes the petitioner from
    supplying the explanation when he arrives in federal court.
    See 
    id. at 440-44
    , 
    120 S. Ct. at 1492-94
     (relying on federal
    court record to determine that petitioner’s failure to develop
    factual basis for two of his claims was not due to lack of
    diligence on petitioner’s part); Boyko, 
    259 F.3d at 791-92
    (remanding for determination by district court as to peti-
    tioner’s diligence). Hampton’s postconviction counsel, in his
    testimony before the district court, detailed the unsuccess-
    ful effort he had made to obtain an affidavit from Gregory.
    In deciding whether expansion of the record was appropri-
    ate, the district court was free to consider that and any oth-
    er evidence that placed into context Hampton’s failure to
    completely develop the basis for his ineffectiveness claim in
    state court.9 As we have said, the State has not disputed the
    9
    Although section 2254(e)(2) does not require the petitioner to
    have explained his failure to develop the factual basis for his
    claim while still in the state forum, we acknowledge that the
    Illinois Post-Conviction Hearing Act did require Hampton either
    to attach to his postconviction petition “affidavits, records, or oth-
    er evidence supporting its allegations” or to explain “why the same
    are not attached.” Ill. Stat. Ann. Ch. 38 ¶ 122-2 (Smith-Hurd
    1990). Thus, Hampton and his counsel should have explained to
    the state postconviction court that their failure to submit an
    affidavit from Gregory Mallory was due to Gregory’s refusal to
    (continued...)
    40                                                    No. 01-4186
    notion that a witness’s refusal to cooperate with the
    petitioner may suffice under section 2254(e)(2) to excuse the
    petitioner’s failure to tender that witness’s testimony in the
    state forum. In the absence of such an argument, we shall
    assume that Hampton did demonstrate diligence not with-
    standing his failure to submit an affidavit from Gregory
    Mallory in support of his postconviction petition.
    2. Procedural Default
    When it addressed Hampton’s ineffectiveness claim, the
    Illinois Appellate Court pointed out that Hampton had
    attached affidavits from both Williams and Garner to his
    petition for postconviction relief, but not one from Gregory.
    App. Ct. Op. at 6. The Illinois Post-Conviction Hearing Act
    requires a petitioner to attach to his petition affidavits (or
    other evidence) supporting the factual allegations of the pe-
    tition. See Ill. Stat. Ann. Ch. 38 ¶ 122-2 (Smith-Hurd 1990),
    now codified at 725 Ill. Comp. Stat. 5/122-2. Thus, a claim
    that trial counsel failed to investigate and call to testify
    a particular witness should be supported by an affidavit
    from that witness. People v. Enis, 
    743 N.E.2d 1
    , 13 (Ill.
    9
    (...continued)
    sign such an affidavit, just as the State suggests. Had the Illinois
    courts relied on the lack of such an explanatory affidavit as a
    reason to disregard Gregory’s potential testimony on Hampton’s
    behalf, Hampton’s failure to explain to the state courts why he
    had not submitted an affidavit from Gregory might have consti-
    tuted a procedural default barring the federal courts from con-
    sidering Gregory’s testimony. As we note below, however, al-
    though the Illinois Appellate Court noted that Hampton had not
    submitted an affidavit from Gregory, it did not rely on the missing
    affidavit in disposing of Hampton’s ineffectiveness claim; neither
    did it note or rely on the lack of an explanation for the missing
    affidavit.
    No. 01-4186                                                 41
    2000), cert. denied, 
    533 U.S. 908
    , 
    121 S. Ct. 2254
     (2001).
    Hampton’s failure to tender an affidavit from Gregory was
    in apparent violation of that requirement. The State con-
    tends that this procedural default, which the Appellate
    Court noted, constitutes an adequate and independent state
    procedural ground for the court’s decision that precludes the
    federal courts from reaching the merits of his constitutional
    claim insofar as it rests on Gregory’s testimony. See Stewart
    v. Smith, 
    536 U.S. 856
    , 860, 
    122 S. Ct. 2578
    , 2581 (2002);
    Coleman v. Thompson, 
    501 U.S. 722
    , 729, 
    111 S. Ct. 2546
    ,
    2553-54 (1991).
    However, because the state court did not rely on
    Hampton’s purported default in disposing of his ineffective-
    ness claim, we may reach the merits of the claim. A peti-
    tioner’s procedural default will bar federal habeas review
    only if the state court actually relied on that default as an
    independent basis for its decision. Harris v. Reed, supra,
    489 US. at 261-62, 
    109 S. Ct. at 1042
    . Here, the Illinois Ap-
    pellate Court (the last state court to address the ineffective-
    ness claim) did no more than note Hampton’s failure to sub-
    mit an affidavit from Gregory Mallory. App. Ct. Order
    at 6. The court gave no hint that the missing affidavit con-
    strained or influenced its resolution of the claim in any way.
    The court proceeded to plenary consideration of the merits
    of the claim, referring collectively to the witnesses that
    Hampton claimed his attorney had failed to investigate as
    “these witnesses,” without drawing any distinction between
    Williams and Garner, whose affidavits had been attached
    to Hampton’s petition, and Gregory Mallory. App. Ct. Order
    at 7. Under these circumstances, we find no adequate and
    independent state procedural ground that forecloses or
    limits our consideration of Hampton’s ineffectiveness claim.
    See, e.g., Farmer v. Litscher, 
    303 F.3d 840
    , 846 (7th Cir.
    2002); Moore v. Bryant, 
    295 F.3d 771
    , 774 (7th Cir. 2002).
    The State makes a similar argument with respect to
    Gregory Hubbard. Hubbard’s name was not among those
    42                                                     No. 01-4186
    that Hampton had given to Rodgon. Rather, the district
    court cited Hubbard as an example of an exculpatory
    witness whom Rodgon would have discovered had he made
    a rudimentary effort of his own to identify such witnesses.
    
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *8. Recall that Hubbard had testified
    on Ronald Mallory’s behalf and, among other things,
    claimed that Hampton did not participate in the attacks.
    R. 48-3 at 1132-33, 1145. As was the case with Gregory
    Mallory, Hampton did not attach an affidavit from Hubbard
    to his postconviction petition, and the State thus contends
    that Hampton procedurally defaulted his ineffectiveness
    claim insofar as it relied on Hubbard as a prospective wit-
    ness.10
    Hubbard, however, occupies a unique place among the
    witnesses that Rodgon might have summoned on Hampton’s
    behalf, in that the trial record itself revealed the substance
    of Hubbard’s testimony. When he testified for Ronald
    Mallory, Hubbard had not only exculpated Mallory but also
    Hampton (Tr. 1132, 1145); it was simply the case that
    Hampton’s jury never heard this testimony. Given the
    existing record of Hubbard’s testimony, there was no real
    need for Hampton to submit an affidavit from Hubbard in
    order to substantiate the claim that he would have been
    a helpful witness. See People v. Johnson, 
    700 N.E.2d 996
    ,
    1003 (Ill. 1998) (lack of affidavit or other evidence not fatal
    to postconviction claim if petitioner’s allegations are uncon-
    tradicted and clearly supported by record), cert. denied, 526
    10
    It is not clear whether the State also means to invoke section
    2254(e)(2) in pressing this argument. However, for the same
    reasons we conclude below that the failure to submit an affidavit
    from Hubbard in state court did not constitute a procedural de-
    fault barring Hampton from relying on Hubbard’s testimony, we
    would also conclude that Hampton did not fail to develop the
    factual basis for his failure-to-investigate claim insofar as it rests
    on Hubbard’s testimony.
    No. 01-4186                                                    
    43 U.S. 1009
    , 
    119 S. Ct. 1150
     (1999). As it was, Hampton not
    only named Hubbard in his supplemental postconviction
    petition, but cited the testimony he had given on behalf of
    Ronald Mallory. R. 48-5 at 119. That testimony was in the
    record, the entirety of which the postconviction judge said
    she had considered before dismissing his failure-to-investi-
    gate claim. R. 48-7 at C3, C31. Hampton did not, therefore,
    commit a procedural default in state court that precludes
    him from relying upon Hubbard’s testimony.11
    3. Need for an Evidentiary Hearing
    Finally the State appears to argue in passing that the dis-
    trict court erred in ordering an evidentiary hearing because
    “there were no factual disputes which warranted a hearing.”
    State Br. at 39. Because the State has not developed this
    argument, we need not consider it. See, e.g., Palmquist v.
    Selvik, 
    111 F.3d 1332
    , 1342 (7th Cir. 1997) (“Even an issue
    expressly presented for resolution is waived if not de-
    veloped.”). Instead, we believe it sufficient to make two brief
    points.
    First, a habeas petitioner is entitled to an evidentiary
    hearing under Townsend v. Sain, 
    supra,
     
    372 U.S. at
    312-
    13, 
    83 S. Ct. at 757
    , if he has alleged facts that would enti-
    11
    The State makes the same procedural default argument with
    respect to Farod Poole, an additional witness that Hampton did
    not name to Rodgon but, Hampton alleges, was readily dis-
    coverable had Rodgon simply made an effort to locate additional
    eyewitnesses. An affidavit from Poole was submitted in support
    of Hampton’s supplemental habeas petition. R.27 Ex. E. The
    district court ultimately did not consider Poole’s affidavit, how-
    ever, finding that Hampton’s failure to identify him as a potential
    witness and to tender an affidavit from him in support of his
    petition for postconviction relief in state court was due to a lack
    of diligence on Hampton’s part. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *14.
    44                                                      No. 01-4186
    tle him to relief and the state courts, for reasons not attrib-
    utable to him, denied him a full and fair hearing to explore
    those facts. See Matheny, 
    253 F.3d at 1039
    ; Porter v.
    Gramley, 
    112 F.3d 1308
    , 1317 (7th Cir. 1997), cert. denied,
    
    522 U.S. 1093
    , 
    118 S. Ct. 886
     (1998).12 That is the case here.
    Hampton’s habeas petition, together with the affidavits
    before the district court at the time it decided to convene
    a hearing, made out a prima facie case of ineffectiveness.
    Hampton had preliminarily established that there were
    eyewitnesses to the attacks who could have exculpated
    him, that these witnesses had either been identified to
    Hampton’s trial counsel Rodgon by Hampton himself or
    were readily discoverable, but that Rodgon had not con-
    tacted these witnesses in order to determine whether they
    might have aided Hampton’s defense. The state postconvic-
    tion court was presented with those same basic averments
    but summarily disposed of Hampton’s petition without an
    evidentiary hearing; and the Appellate Court affirmed that
    disposition.
    Second, there were points that the district court could
    not reasonably resolve without conducting a hearing. For
    example, although the Illinois Appellate Court had ascribed
    Rodgon’s failure to investigate and present exculpatory
    witnesses to a legitimate concern that such witnesses might
    have presented a problem of guilt by association for
    Hampton (App. Ct. Order at 7), there in fact was no record
    as to Rodgon’s efforts and thinking as to such witnesses.
    12
    The State suggests that section 2254(e)(2) displaces the pre-
    AEDPA Townsend analysis. However, our opinion in Matheny
    indicates that if section 2254(e)(2) by its terms does not apply (i.e.,
    if the failure to develop the factual basis for the habeas claim in
    state court cannot be attributed to something that the petitioner
    did or failed to do), then the federal habeas court should consult
    pre-AEDPA standards to determine whether an evidentiary hear-
    ing on the petitioner’s claim is warranted. 
    253 F.3d at 1039
    .
    No. 01-4186                                               45
    The only available evidence as to Rodgon’s thinking came
    from the postconviction hearing regarding Hampton’s own
    failure to testify. See supra at 13-14 & n.4. Because the
    postconviction court had summarily dismissed Hampton’s
    ineffectiveness claim, the state court record was never
    developed as to what Rodgon knew about exculpatory oc-
    currence witnesses, what steps he may have taken to iden-
    tify and speak with such witnesses, or his reasons (if any)
    for neither investigating nor presenting such witnesses.
    Indeed, as the evidentiary hearing in the district court re-
    vealed, there were disputes between Hampton and Rodgon
    as to whether or not Hampton had identified potential wit-
    nesses for Rodgon, disputes that could only be resolved after
    the court heard their testimony and assessed their credibil-
    ity. See Bruce v. United States, 
    supra,
     
    256 F.3d at 598-99
    (district court abused its discretion in refusing to conduct
    an evidentiary hearing on failure to investigate claim made
    under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    , where the affidavits of trial coun-
    sel, defendant, and prospective alibi witnesses presented
    questions of fact as to whether counsel adequately assessed
    the potential testimony of these witnesses). Moreover, the
    district court could not assess what impact the exculpatory
    eyewitnesses likely would have had upon Hampton’s trial
    without hearing their testimony. 
    Id. at 600
    . We observed in
    Matheny that “[a]n adequate record is imperative to
    properly evaluate ineffective assistance claims,” 
    253 F.3d at
    1040 (citing United States v. Draves, 
    103 F.3d 1328
    , 1335
    (7th Cir.), cert. denied, 
    521 U.S. 1127
    , 
    117 S. Ct. 2528
    (1997)), and in this case an evidentiary hearing was
    necessary in order to supply such a record. See also United
    States ex rel. Cosey v. Wolff, 
    682 F.2d 691
    , 693-94 (7th Cir.
    1982) (per curiam).
    B. Merits
    “The Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of
    1996 modified a federal habeas court’s role in reviewing
    46                                               No. 01-4186
    state prisoner applications in order to prevent federal ha-
    beas ‘retrials’ and to ensure that state-court convictions are
    given effect to the extent possible under law.” Bell v. Cone,
    
    535 U.S. 685
    , 693, 
    122 S. Ct. 1843
    , 1849 (2002), citing
    Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 403-04, 
    120 S. Ct. 1495
    ,
    1518 (2000). In order to obtain habeas relief under the
    AEDPA, a petitioner must establish that the proceedings in
    state court resulted in a decision (1) “that was contrary to,
    or involved an unreasonable application of, clearly estab-
    lished Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court of
    the United States,” or (2) “that was based on an unreason-
    able determination of the facts in light of the evidence pre-
    sented in the State court proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d).
    The relevant decision, for purposes of this assessment, is
    the decision of the last state court to rule on the merits of
    the petitioner’s claim—here, the order of the Illinois Ap-
    pellate Court. E.g., Schultz v. Page, 
    313 F.3d 1010
    , 1015
    (7th Cir. 2002), cert. denied, 
    123 S. Ct. 2220
     (2003).
    Hampton appropriately does not contend that the Illinois
    Appellate Court’s decision is “contrary to” clearly estab-
    lished law; the court cited and applied the familiar rules
    governing claims of attorney ineffectiveness as set forth
    in the seminal Supreme Court precedent on that subject,
    Strickland v. Washington, supra, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 
    104 S. Ct. 2052
    . See Woodford v. Visciotti, 
    537 U.S. 19
    , 
    123 S. Ct. 357
    ,
    359-60 (2002) (per curiam). Instead, Hampton maintains
    that the court unreasonably applied those standards.
    “A state-court decision that correctly identifies the govern-
    ing legal rule but applies it unreasonably to the facts of
    a particular prisoner’s case certainly would qualify as a
    decision ‘involv[ing] an unreasonable application of . . .
    clearly established Federal law.’ ” Williams, 529 U.S. at 407-
    08, 120 S. Ct. at 1520. “Unreasonable” means something
    more than “mistaken,” however. Visciotti, 
    123 S. Ct. at 360, 361
    ; Williams, 529 U.S. at 410, 120 S. Ct. at 1522;
    Hardaway v. Young, 
    302 F.3d 757
    , 762 (7th Cir. 2002), cert.
    No. 01-4186                                                47
    denied, 
    123 S. Ct. 1802
     (2003). A state court decision is
    unreasonable for purposes of section 2254(d)(1) if its ap-
    plication of Supreme Court precedent “l[ies] well outside the
    boundaries of permissible differences of opinion.” 
    Id.,
     citing
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 411, 120 S. Ct. at 1522; see also
    Visciotti, 
    123 S. Ct. at 361
     (“[t]he federal habeas scheme
    . . . authorizes federal-court intervention only when a state-
    court decision is objectively unreasonable”). “Our task is to
    uphold those outcomes which comport with recognized con-
    ventions of legal reasoning and set aside those which do
    not.” Ward v. Sternes, 
    334 F.3d 696
    , 703 (7th Cir. 2003).
    In relevant part, Hampton’s habeas petition contends that
    he was denied his Sixth Amendment right to the effective
    assistance of trial counsel. In order to succeed on a claim of
    attorney ineffectiveness, a petitioner must demonstrate
    both that his counsel’s conduct fell below an objective
    standard of reasonableness and that his counsel’s sub-
    standard performance prejudiced him. Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 687
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2064
    .
    The first Strickland showing entails proof that the peti-
    tioner’s trial attorney “made errors so serious that counsel
    was not functioning as the ‘counsel’ guaranteed the defen-
    dant by the Sixth Amendment.” 
    Ibid.
     In assessing the
    adequacy of an attorney’s performance, the court’s scrutiny
    of course must be “highly deferential,” 
    id. at 689
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2065
    , allowing ample room for differences of professional
    opinion among attorneys as to how one might best represent
    the defendant, 
    id. at 689-90
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2065-66
    .
    A fair assessment of attorney performance requires that
    every effort be made to eliminate the distorting effects
    of hindsight, to reconstruct the circumstances of coun-
    sel’s challenged conduct, and to evaluate the conduct
    from counsel’s perspective at the time. Because of the
    difficulties inherent in making the evaluation, a court
    48                                               No. 01-4186
    must indulge a strong presumption that counsel’s con-
    duct falls within the wide range of reasonable pro-
    fessional assistance; that is, the defendant must over-
    come the presumption that, under the circumstances,
    the challenged action “might be considered sound trial
    strategy.” See Michel v. Louisiana, [
    350 U.S. 91
    , 101, 76
    S. Ct.158, 164 (1955)].
    Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 689
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2065
    ; see also
    Cone, 
    535 U.S. at 698, 702
    , 122 S. Ct. at 1852, 1854.
    The second prong of the Strickland inquiry requires a
    demonstration of prejudice, that is, proof that “counsel’s
    errors were so serious as to deprive the defendant of a fair
    trial, a trial whose result is reliable.” 
    466 U.S. at 687
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2064
    . Prejudice is established when “there is a
    reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional
    errors, the result of the proceeding would have been differ-
    ent.” 
    Id. at 694
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2068
    . This standard does not
    require the petitioner to convince the court that his attor-
    ney’s ineffectiveness “more likely than not altered the out-
    come in the case.” 
    Id. at 693
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2068
    ; see also
    Visciotti, 
    123 S. Ct. at 359
    ; Nix v. Whiteside, 
    475 U.S. 157
    ,
    175, 
    106 S. Ct. 988
    , 998 (1986); White v. Godinez, 
    301 F.3d 796
    , 804 (7th Cir. 2002). Rather, a “reasonable probability”
    is one “sufficient to undermine confidence in the outcome.”
    Id. at 694, 
    104 S. Ct. at 2068
    . Even if the odds that the
    defendant would have been acquitted had he received
    effective representation appear to be less than fifty percent,
    prejudice has been established so long as the chances of ac-
    quittal are better than negligible. Miller v. Anderson, 
    255 F.3d 455
    , 459 (7th Cir. 2001), judgment modified, 
    268 F.3d 485
     (7th Cir. 2001).
    1. Failure to Investigate Exculpatory Eyewitnesses
    Hampton’s ineffectiveness claim is based primarily upon
    what he contends was Rodgon’s failure to conduct a reason-
    No. 01-4186                                               49
    able pretrial investigation by contacting the occurrence
    witnesses whose names had been give to him and by failing
    make any effort of his own to locate and contact other eye-
    witnesses.
    The duty to investigate derives from counsel’s basic
    function, which is “ ‘to make the adversarial testing
    process work in the particular case.’ ” Kimmelman v.
    Morrison, 
    477 U.S. 365
    , 384, 
    106 S. Ct. 2574
     (1986)
    (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 690
    , 
    104 S. Ct. 2052
    ).
    “Because that testing process generally will not function
    properly unless defense counsel has done some in-
    vestigation into the prosecution’s case and into various
    defense strategies, [the Supreme Court has] noted that
    ‘counsel has a duty to make reasonable investigations
    or to make a reasonable decision that makes particular
    investigations unnecessary.’ ” 
    Id.
     (quoting Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 691
    , 
    104 S. Ct. 2052
    ).
    Brown v. Sternes, 
    304 F.3d 677
    , 691 (7th Cir. 2002). The
    Illinois Appellate Court characterized Rodgon’s decision not
    to present testimony from eyewitnesses who might have
    testified favorably for Hampton as a strategic decision that
    “cannot” support a claim of attorney ineffectiveness. App.
    Ct. Order at 6. The Supreme Court has, true enough, ob-
    served that “strategic choices made after thorough investi-
    gation of law and facts relevant to plausible options are
    virtually unchallengeable.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 690
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2066
     (emphasis supplied). The Court added,
    however, that “strategic choices made after less than com-
    plete investigation are reasonable precisely to the extent
    that reasonable professional judgments support the limita-
    tions on investigation.” 
    Id. at 690-91
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2066
    (emphasis supplied). We also pointed out in Crisp v.
    Duckworth that “[alt]hough there may be unusual cases
    when an attorney can make a rational decision that inves-
    tigation is unnecessary, as a general rule an attorney must
    50                                               No. 01-4186
    investigate a case in order to provide minimally competent
    representation.” 
    743 F.2d 580
    , 583 (7th Cir. 1984), cert.
    denied, 
    469 U.S. 1226
    , 
    105 S. Ct. 1221
     (1985). Thus, among
    the questions posed by Hampton’s claim are whether
    Rodgon’s omission to contact and present exculpatory eye-
    witness was indeed a strategic decision, whether that deci-
    sion was based on a complete or incomplete investigation,
    and whether, if based on an incomplete investigation,
    “reasonable professional judgment” supported a limited
    investigation. See Montgomery v. Petersen, 
    846 F.2d 407
    ,
    413 (7th Cir. 1988) (“counsel [has] a duty to contact a poten-
    tial witness unless counsel ‘can make a rational decision
    that investigation is unnecessary’ ”) (quoting Crisp, 
    743 F.2d at 583
    ).
    The district court made several threshold factual deter-
    minations that have a substantial impact on our evaluation
    of the ineffectiveness claim insofar as the claim rests on
    Rodgon’s failure to investigate exculpatory eyewitnesses.
    The court found first that Hampton had given Rodgon the
    names of three eyewitnesses (Garner, Gregory Mallory, and
    Williams), and in so finding rejected Rodgon’s testimony to
    the contrary. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *8. It found further that
    Rodgon had not only failed to contact not only these wit-
    nesses, but had also failed to independently pursue other
    available eyewitnesses. 
    Id.
     Third, except as to Garner, the
    court found that Rodgon had no tactical or strategic reason
    for not following up with such witnesses. 
    Id. at *8, *16
    .
    Although the State does not expressly challenge these find-
    ings as clearly erroneous, see Foster v. Schomig, 
    223 F.3d 626
    , 634 n.4 (7th Cir. 2000), cert. denied, 
    532 U.S. 944
    , 
    121 S. Ct. 1407
     (2001), it does nibble about their edges, taking
    issue with the way in which the court evaluated some of the
    evidence underlying its findings.
    The State does not appear to quarrel with the district
    court’s finding that Hampton gave the names of Garner,
    No. 01-4186                                               51
    Gregory, and Williams to Rodgon. In its recitation of the
    evidence presented to Judge Kennelly, the State points out
    that Rodgon denied having been given these names by
    Hampton, insisting that he would have investigated had
    he been given the names of such witnesses. State Br. at 25.
    Hampton, on the other hand, testified that he did give
    Rodgon this information. The choice of whom to believe fell
    to Judge Kennelly, who heard them both testify. See Foster,
    
    223 F.3d at
    634 n.4; see also Sullivan v. Fairman, 
    supra,
    819 F.2d at 1392-93
    . Rodgon’s 1987 letter to the ARDC,
    which indicated that he and Hampton did discuss potential
    (unnamed) witnesses, figured into the judge’s credibility
    assessment. See 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *7. The State sug-
    gests that the district court gave the ARDC letter too much
    weight, noting that Rodgon’s mere reference to potential
    witnesses “does not mean that he failed to investigate any
    witnesses.” State Br. at 50. That is true enough. However,
    the principal inference that Judge Kennelly drew from the
    letter was that Hampton, contrary to Rodgon’s testimony,
    had identified potential defense witnesses for Rodgon. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *7. Considered along with Hampton’s
    testimony, that inference was not unreasonable. Judge
    Kennelly’s finding that Hampton did give the names of
    Garner, Williams, and Gregory Mallory to Rodgon is amply
    supported by the record and is not clearly erroneous.
    The State appears to take some issue with the district
    court’s next finding—that Rodgon made no attempt to con-
    tact the witnesses whose names Hampton had given him or
    to identify other potentially exculpatory eyewitnesses on his
    own. The record, we should point out, is devoid of any evi-
    dence that Rodgon actually did make such an attempt.
    Rodgon himself simply denied that Hampton had given him
    the names of any witnesses and said that he did not know
    who, other than Hampton’s co-defendants, might be favor-
    52                                                   No. 01-4186
    able occurrence witnesses.13 The district court found it
    noteworthy that Rodgon’s trial file lacked any memoranda
    or notations indicating that Rodgon (or an investigator) had
    spoken with any witnesses. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *7. The
    State suggests that there may be explanations other than
    a failure to interview witnesses for the lack of documenta-
    tion in Rodgon’s file. State Br. at 49. Rodgon did testify that
    he had made notes that, by the time of the hearing before
    Judge Kennelly, were missing from the file. “I had notes. I
    know I had notes. I don’t know where they are because the
    file got split up, and it has been 20 years almost, 19 years.”
    R. 59-1 at 93. But Rodgon did not specify what type of notes
    these were, nor was he able to identify any occurrence
    witness that he did contact. In the absence of any evidence
    that Rodgon had spoken with such witnesses, Judge
    Kennelly permissibly concluded that Rodgon made no effort
    to locate and interview potentially exculpatory eyewit-
    nesses. Again, his finding is amply supported by the record
    and is not clearly erroneous.14
    13
    Garner, Gregory, and Williams each averred that Rodgon had
    never contacted him.
    14
    The State suggests that “Rodgon would [not] have been able to
    file numerous pretrial motions requiring extensive research, pre-
    pare discovery requests, conduct pretrial hearings and conduct
    lengthy and vigorous cross-examinations of all the State witnes-
    ses” without having conducted a more extensive pretrial investiga-
    tion than reflected in the documentation remaining in the case
    file. State Br. at 49. This contention misses the point, however.
    The district court never suggested, let alone held, that Rodgon’s
    representation of Hampton was deficient in all respects. Consis-
    tent with the ineffectiveness claim that Hampton asserted, the
    court focused on Rodgon’s failure to look for eyewitnesses who
    might have exonerated Hampton. Rodgon’s representation of
    Hampton might well have been conscientious and effective in
    other respects, and we are obliged to consider Rodgon’s perfor-
    (continued...)
    No. 01-4186                                                      53
    Notably, the State mounts no direct challenge to the dis-
    trict court’s finding that Rodgon’s failure to pursue excul-
    patory eyewitnesses was not a strategic decision.15 The
    district court observed that although the Illinois Appellate
    Court had labeled it as such, this finding “ ‘rests on thin
    air’ ” and consequently was entitled to no deference. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *15 (quoting Mendiola v. Schomig, 
    224 F.3d 589
    , 592 (7th Cir. 2000), cert. denied, 
    533 U.S. 949
    , 
    121 S. Ct. 2591
     (2001)). “Neither the state trial court nor the
    Appellate Court had any basis to determine why Rodgon
    had not interviewed Hampton’s witnesses (either the occur-
    rence witnesses or the ‘character’ witnesses); the finding
    that it was a strategic move was entirely speculative.” 
    Id. 14
    (...continued)
    mance as a whole. See Miller v. Anderson, supra, 
    255 F.3d at
    458-
    59. But the possibility that Rodgon was competent in other
    aspects of his lawyering by no means rules out the possibility that
    his failure to investigate potential exculpatory defense witnesses
    amounted to constitutional ineffectiveness. Cf. Bryant v. Scott, 
    28 F.3d 1411
    , 1418-19 (5th Cir. 1994).
    15
    The State does suggest that in making this determination, the
    district court “closed its eyes” to the ramifications of one document
    found in Rodgon’s trial folder—a copy of Ronald Mallory’s pretrial
    statement to prosecutors. State Br. at 49. Among other things,
    that statement asserts that Ronald Mallory did not see anyone
    except his brother Gregory at the concert, that he did not see
    Garner there at all, and that he never left the balcony of the
    Amphitheatre. R.58 Petitioner’s Ex. 4 at 4-5. In these particulars,
    Ronald Mallory’s statement is inconsistent with the accounts giv-
    en by Williams, Garner, Gregory Mallory, and Hampton. (Mallory
    admitted at trial that he had lied in his pretrial statement. R. 48-
    3 at 1158, 1175.) But those inconsistencies in and of themselves
    hardly would have justified a decision not to speak with the wit-
    nesses whose names Hampton gave to Rodgon or to look for addi-
    tional eyewitnesses. See, e.g., Bryant v. Scott, 
    supra n.14
    , 
    28 F.3d at 1418
    .
    54                                               No. 01-4186
    Our own review of the record confirms the district court’s
    assessment: there is no evidence to support the notion that
    Rodgon made a strategic decision not to look for exculpatory
    eyewitnesses. As the district court put it, Rodgon’s omission
    to pursue such witnesses was one that occurred by default
    rather than design. Id. at *16.
    In any case, an attorney’s decisions are not immune from
    examination simply because they are deemed tactical.
    Miller, 
    255 F.3d at 458
    ; Crisp, 
    743 F.2d at 584
    . Strickland
    itself makes clear that “strategic choices made after less
    than complete investigation are reasonable precisely to the
    extent that reasonable professional judgments support the
    limitations on investigation.” 
    466 U.S. at 690-91
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2066
     (emphasis ours). Rodgon’s decision not to call
    exculpatory eyewitnesses in Hampton’s defense—if it was
    a decision at all—was necessarily one made after an in-
    complete investigation, for Rodgon never spoke with such
    witnesses to find out what they had to say. Only if it was
    objectively reasonable for Rodgon to self-limit his investiga-
    tion in this way may his “decision” not to present exculpa-
    tory eyewitnesses itself be considered reasonable. Ibid.; see
    also Montgomery, 
    846 F.2d at 413
    ; Crisp, 
    743 F.2d at 584
    .
    As we conclude below, given the circumstances confronting
    Rodgon, it was not reasonable for Rodgon to believe that
    it was unnecessary to identify and interview potentially
    exculpatory eyewitnesses to the events underlying the
    charges against Hampton.
    Eyewitness testimony was the linchpin of the State’s case
    against Hampton. There was no physical evidence tying
    Hampton to the attack upon the three Latino concertgoers.
    The only evidence implicating Hampton in the attack—
    beyond Hampton’s conceded presence at the concert—came
    from the three prosecution witnesses (victims Denise M.
    and Martha N., and William Heinrichs, the security guard)
    who identified Hampton as one of the attackers, and (to a
    lesser extent) from Keith Powell, who identified Hampton
    No. 01-4186                                               55
    as among the group of individuals marching toward the
    stage of the auditorium but had not seen Hampton attack
    anyone. None of the three individuals who identified
    Hampton as an assailant knew Hampton, and none of those
    three witnesses had more than a momentary glimpse of the
    assailant whom they identified as Hampton. They got that
    look under conditions that were anything but ideal: the
    attack was chaotic and perpetrated by a large group of
    people, and the house lights in the Amphitheatre had been
    dimmed for the concert. Moreover, by their own account,
    none of the witnesses had, prior to seeing a line-up, pro-
    vided a physical description of the assailant they identified
    as Hampton to the authorities.
    Under these circumstances, the first and most obvious
    line of attack on the prosecution’s case was to emphasize
    the vulnerabilities in the identification testimony; and this
    Rodgon did with vigor. Through his cross-examination of
    the State’s witnesses, Rodgon competently highlighted each
    of the circumstances that might have given the jury reason
    to doubt the ability of the State’s witnesses to identify
    Hampton beyond a reasonable doubt as one of the assail-
    ants.
    But whatever the weaknesses in the State’s case that
    Rodgon succeeded in exposing in this fashion, his defense of
    Hampton did not elicit any testimony that Hampton
    was not among the group of individuals who attacked the
    three victims. The omission of such exculpatory evidence
    cannot be discounted. None of the witnesses who identified
    Hampton as an assailant was proven to be wholly incredi-
    ble, and none of the weaknesses and inconsistencies in their
    identifications was fatal to the State’s case. Each of them
    testified that it was Hampton she or he had seen, notwith-
    standing the difficult conditions under which they had seen
    him. Opposing testimony from other eyewitnesses to the
    attacks, positing that Hampton was not a participant,
    would have given the jury a qualitatively different and more
    56                                                 No. 01-4186
    powerful reason to believe that the State’s witnesses were
    mistaken in their identifications of Hampton. See Washing-
    ton v. Smith, supra, 
    219 F.3d at 634
     (additional alibi
    witnesses that attorney failed to contact “would have added
    a great deal of substance and credibility to [petitioner’s]
    alibi”); Wright v. Gramley, supra, 
    125 F.3d at 1042
     (where
    state’s case against petitioner relied almost exclusively on
    testimony of two eyewitnesses who saw assailant only
    briefly, occurrence witnesses who gave physical description
    of assailant “radically different” from petitioner’s appear-
    ance “would have transformed a relatively weak defense
    into a far stronger one”); Crisp, 743 F.3d at 585 (“[h]aving
    independent witnesses corroborate a defendant’s story may
    be essential”); United States ex rel. Cosey v. Wolff, 
    727 F.2d 656
    , 658 n.3 (7th Cir. 1984) (witnesses whose names
    petitioner had given to his counsel “would not only have
    corroborated [petitioner’s] story and further impeached the
    victim’s version, but . . . if the witnesses were believed, their
    testimony alone would have entirely exculpated [peti-
    tioner]”), overruled on other grounds, United States v.
    Payne, 
    741 F.2d 887
    , 891 n.4 (7th Cir. 1984) (per curiam).
    The Illinois Appellate Court’s assertion that such testimony
    would have been “redundant” is plainly wrong; testimony by
    one eyewitness to a crime that the perpetrator was not the
    person named by another eyewitness is the antithesis of
    redundancy. See Washington, 
    219 F.3d at 634
    ; Montgomery,
    
    846 F.2d at 415
    ; Crisp, 
    743 F.2d at 585
    ; Cosey, 
    727 F.2d at
    658 n.3. For that very reason, the Fifth Circuit has recog-
    nized that “[t]he failure to interview eyewitnesses to a crime
    may strongly support a claim of ineffective assistance of
    counsel.” Bryant v. Scott, 
    28 F.3d 1411
    , 1415 (5th Cir. 1994)
    (citing Gray v. Lucas, 
    677 F.2d 1086
    , 1093 n.5 (5th Cir.
    1982), cert. denied, 
    461 U.S. 910
    , 
    103 S. Ct. 1886
     (1983)).
    As the evidence presented to Judge Kennelly makes
    clear, there were such exculpatory eyewitnesses available
    No. 01-4186                                                57
    to the defense. Hampton provided Rodgon with the names
    and means of contacting three of these witnesses—Garner,
    Gregory Mallory, and Williams. Each of those witnesses
    knew Hampton, had attended the concert, had witnessed
    the attacks, and was prepared to testify that Hampton had
    not participated in those attacks. Attorneys representing
    Hampton’s co-defendants had located other eyewitnesses to
    the attacks who resided at the public housing project where
    Hampton lived and thus might have known or at least
    recognized Hampton. As the district court pointed out,
    Rodgon would have been able to identify those witnesses
    simply by consulting with his colleagues and/or investigat-
    ing the people identified on their witness lists. At least one
    of those individuals, Gregory Hubbard, would have testified
    that Hampton did not participate in the attacks.
    Like the district court, we shall assume that Rodgon had
    a valid reason not to contact Garner, who (unlike the other
    prospective witnesses) had been charged with, and had
    pleaded guilty to, participating in the attacks. Rodgon was
    aware of Garner’s guilty plea, and he was also aware that
    the proffer of evidence that the State recited each time one
    of Hampton’s co-defendants pleaded guilty expressly im-
    plicated Hampton in the attacks. Garner was not asked
    to affirm the truth of the government’s proffer (neither
    did he contest its accuracy). Nonetheless, Garner’s guilty
    plea in the face of a proffer that expressly implicated both
    Hampton as well as himself obviously diminished his utility
    as a defense witness to some degree. But see Bryant, 
    28 F.3d at 1419
     (without interviewing a co-defendant who had
    pleaded guilty, petitioner’s trial attorney “was ill equipped
    to assess his credibility or persuasiveness as a witness, de-
    spite the objective factors tending to impugn [his] credibil-
    ity”); cf. Cosey, 
    727 F.2d at
    658 n.3 (although three of
    potential witnesses had reason to be biased in petitioner’s
    favor, “that alone is insufficient cause to automatically re-
    ject them”).
    58                                               No. 01-4186
    But Rodgon had no reason not to contact and interview
    the other eyewitnesses Hampton has identified. Those wit-
    nesses were not implicated in the attacks, nor did they suf-
    fer from any other disability that necessarily would have
    impaired their credibility in the eyes of the jury. Although
    the State has methodically identified various inconsisten-
    cies and imperfections among the recollections of those
    witnesses, such flaws—hardly surprising after the passage
    of nearly twenty years—cannot excuse Rodgon’s failure to
    contact and interview them. Certainly they would bear on
    the weight that a jury assessing Hampton’s guilt might
    have attached to their testimony, and to that extent they
    are relevant to the assessment of prejudice from the failure
    to contact them, an assessment we are about to make. But
    they are not qualitatively different in kind from the weak-
    nesses in the identification testimony of the State’s own
    witnesses. A decision that it was unnecessary to look for
    and contact such eyewitnesses cannot be described as rea-
    sonable. See Washington, 
    219 F.3d at 632
     (trial counsel’s
    failure, inter alia, to ascertain what exculpatory evidence
    defendant’s witnesses might have was a “flagrant exam-
    ple[ ] of ineffectiveness”); Lord v. Wood, 
    184 F.3d 1083
    , 1095
    (9th Cir. 1999) (counsel cannot assess credibility and de-
    meanor of prospective witness without “looking him in
    the eye and hearing him tell his story”), cert. denied, 
    528 U.S. 1198
    , 
    120 S. Ct. 1262
     (2000). Notably, Rodgon himself
    offered no strategic reason for the failure; he simply denied
    having any leads on such witnesses—an explanation the
    district court found incredible. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *7-*8.
    The Illinois Appellate Court also thought that testimo-
    ny from exculpatory eyewitnesses would have posed
    a problem of “guilt by association,” and for that reason it
    was reasonable for Rodgon not to contact such witnesses.
    App. Ct. Order at 7. Testimony from other eyewitnesses, the
    court explained, would have “only serve[d] to emphasize the
    fact that defendant went to the concert with the perpetra-
    No. 01-4186                                               59
    tors, was present during the assault, and left with the
    perpetrators.” 
    Id.
     The State sounds the same theme in its
    briefs. “Petitioner’s potential witnesses all would place him
    at the scene of the crime,” the State emphasizes. Reply Br.
    at 14. “The testimony of Williams, Mallory and Garner
    would have reinforce[d] the fact that Petitioner was [at the
    concert] and would have taken away from Rodgon’s strategy
    to distance Petitioner from the taint of association and vig-
    orously pursue a misidentification theory.” State Br. at 54.
    The “guilt by association” concern is altogether a red
    herring, however, given the context in which the attacks
    occurred. There was never any dispute, and the jury well
    knew, that Hampton was present at the concert; so were
    thousands of other people. Attending a rhythm and blues
    concert is neither a crime nor suggestive of participation in
    a crime; and the fact that a horrible assault occurred at the
    concert does not cast a pall of suspicion upon everyone who
    attended. Furthermore, only one of the four favorable eye-
    witnesses that Hampton has identified—Garner—was
    implicated in the attacks, and we have assumed that
    Rodgon had a valid reason not to contact him. The other
    three—Williams, Gregory Mallory, and Hubbard—were
    simply bystanders to the assaults, and so would not have
    fostered the notion that Hampton was linked to the perpe-
    trators by testifying on his behalf. Even to the extent that
    these witnesses would have testified that they, along with
    Hampton, had attended and left the concert in the company
    of other individuals who were perpetrators (which is not
    surprising given that they all lived in the same neighbor-
    hood), they were no different in that respect from Powell,
    the State’s own witness, who knew and rode home on the
    bus with the individuals he heard bragging about the
    attacks.
    For these reasons, we sustain the district court’s determi-
    nation that Rodgon’s failure to investigate exculpatory eye-
    60                                               No. 01-4186
    witnesses was objectively unreasonable. Such witnesses
    were readily available to Rodgon, the testimony of those
    witnesses, if believed, would alone have given the jury a
    reason to acquit Hampton, and Rodgon had no legitimate
    strategic reason not to pursue such witnesses.
    We further agree with the district court that Hampton
    was prejudiced by his attorney’s ineffectiveness. In explain-
    ing why it was unreasonable for Rodgon not to look for
    exculpatory eyewitnesses, we have already highlighted sev-
    eral of the circumstances that establish prejudice, so we will
    briefly recite them again here with belaboring them. With
    no physical evidence against Hampton, the prosecution’s
    case against him depended entirely on witnesses
    who testified that they saw him participate in the attacks.
    Those witnesses saw the assailant they identified as
    Hampton only briefly and under difficult circumstances,
    rendering their identifications of Hampton vulnerable to
    challenge. And although Rodgon effectively identified these
    vulnerabilities, he presented no testimony to affirmatively
    counter the prosecution’s witnesses—i.e., from eyewitnesses
    who would have testified that Hampton did not participate
    in the attacks. See, e.g., Wright, 
    125 F.3d at 1042-43
    ; Cosey,
    
    727 F.2d at
    658 n.3.
    Given the central role that eyewitness testimony played
    in this case, the vulnerabilities in the testimony of the
    State’s eyewitnesses, and the shortcomings in human per-
    ception that so frequently render eyewitness testimony less
    reliable than other types of evidence, see Wright, 
    125 F.3d at
    1043 n.4 (collecting cases), we are more than satisfied
    that the failure to investigate exculpatory eyewitnesses
    likely affected the outcome of Hampton’s trial. The eyewit-
    nesses that Hampton has identified, and whose testimony
    the district court found credible, would have given the jury
    a powerful reason to doubt Hampton’s culpability.
    Two separate acquittals lend support to this notion. First,
    the jury acquitted Hampton of the attempted rape of
    No. 01-4186                                                   61
    Martha N. Recall that according to a written report of a
    line-up that Martha N. had viewed, she had picked Ezra
    Garner rather than Hampton as her assailant. Detective
    Ptak had characterized the report as inaccurate in this
    respect. Nonetheless, the report stood as evidence that
    Martha N., at least initially, had identified someone other
    than Hampton as the person who attempted to rape her.
    The jury’s decision to acquit Hampton on that charge, but
    not others, suggests that the report gave it reason to doubt
    the reliability of Martha N.’s identification in a way that
    it did not doubt the other witnesses against Hampton.16
    Second, Ronald Mallory ultimately was acquitted of all
    charges. Recall that Denise M. had identified Mallory as
    one of the men who attempted to place his penis in her
    mouth. In his defense, Mallory had testified that he did not
    participate in the attack, and he called three additional
    witnesses who said the same thing (a fourth witness con-
    firmed that he was not a gang member). Mallory’s acquittal
    demonstrates the importance of exculpatory eyewitness
    testimony and suggests that Hampton’s jury might have
    been swayed by such testimony. We recognize that the case
    against Mallory was not as strong as the case against
    Hampton, in the sense that only one person—Denise M.—
    identified him as an assailant. But the State’s case against
    Hampton was not qualitatively different from the one
    against Mallory; and Denise M., who was also one of
    Hampton’s accusers, testified on cross-examination that
    it was the men who attempted to put their penises in
    her mouth (including Mallory) on whose faces she had
    concentrated during the attacks. What substantively made
    16
    Recall that at one point during deliberations, the jury sent a
    note to Judge Strayhorn indicating that it was deadlocked on four
    of the charges against Hampton. R. 62 at 189. Although the dead-
    lock obviously did not persist, it undercuts the notion that the
    case against Hampton was overwhelming in all respects.
    62                                                  No. 01-4186
    Mallory’s case unique, beyond his own (self-serving) testi-
    mony that he did not participate in the attacks, was the
    exculpatory eyewitness testimony that Mallory presented.
    That testimony was virtually identical to the eyewitness
    testimony on which Hampton bases his ineffectiveness
    claim, and Mallory’s jury evidently found that testimony
    sufficiently persuasive to doubt his accuser.17
    The State latches onto a number of omissions, potential
    biases, and inconsistencies in and among the testimonies
    and affidavits of Garner, Gregory, and Williams, and con-
    tends that in view of these vulnerabilities, the district court
    was wrong to believe that their testimony likely would have
    had any real impact on the outcome of Hampton’s trial. It
    notes, for example, that Garner, Gregory, and Williams
    were all long-time friends of Hampton’s who, like Hampton,
    were present at the scene of the crime; and Garner, it re-
    minds us, pleaded guilty to participating in the attacks. Cf.
    Montgomery, 
    846 F.2d at 414
     (stressing importance of
    independent witnesses); Crisp, 
    743 F.2d at 585
     (same). The
    State also points to various incongruities among the af-
    fidavits that these three witnesses submitted. Hampton
    alleged in his affidavit that he snuck into the concert with
    Gregory Mallory and then sat in the center of the theater
    with Gregory and Garner until they left the concert.
    17
    The postconviction court suggested (R. 48-7 at C35), as has the
    State (State Br. at 53, Reply Br. at 13) that the case against
    Hampton was significantly stronger given that the witnesses
    against him included William Heinrichs, the security guard who
    testified that he saw an assailant he identified as Hampton as-
    saulting Denise M. But Heinrichs’ credibility was far from unques-
    tioned. Recall that Heinrichs, notwithstanding his employment
    with the Cook County Sheriff, did not come forward as a witness
    for more than a week after the attacks (after the police contacted
    him), and that he identified Hampton the day after he had seen a
    television news report featuring a photograph of Hampton.
    No. 01-4186                                                63
    However, Gregory’s affidavit did not mention that he and
    Hampton had snuck into the theater together, nor did it
    specify with whom Gregory sat during the concert. Garner’s
    affidavit omitted any mention of Gregory. And Williams’
    affidavit averred that Hampton snuck into the theater
    with Garner, and like Garner’s affidavit, it omits mention
    of Gregory. These omissions and inconsistencies, in the
    State’s view, give reason to doubt the veracity and exculpa-
    tory value of the eyewitnesses Hampton has identified.
    Moreover, the State asserts that Gregory Mallory proved
    himself to be a poor witness: as we have previously noted,
    Gregory did not recall exactly where he sat during the
    concert, did not remember that Hampton was tried along
    with Gregory’s brother Ronald and that the case was tried
    before three juries, and could not remember certain repre-
    sentations he had made in his affidavit; he also answered a
    number of the questions posed to him with answers like “I
    don’t know” and “Okay.”
    A number of these asserted weaknesses are unremark-
    able. It is by no means surprising that the witnesses who
    would have exonerated Hampton were his friends—they
    were the people he was sitting with at the concert, and as
    such they were in a superior position to know whether or
    not he had joined the group of men who attacked the three
    Latinos. Their friendship with Hampton certainly is a
    circumstance that a factfinder would consider in weighing
    their credibility, but it is not so impeaching that one can
    wholly discount the import of their testimony and the effect
    that it might have had on Hampton’s jury. As for the
    asserted inconsistencies between the affidavits of Hampton
    and the other eyewitnesses, these are by and large inconsis-
    tencies of omission rather than outright conflicts. Because
    the affidavits were prepared many years after the relevant
    events took place, gaps and inconsistencies in the memory
    of the affiants are to be expected. See, e.g., Brice v. Nkaru,
    
    220 F.3d 233
    , 240 (4th Cir. 2000); Grebenick v. Chater, 121
    64                                              No. 01-
    4186 F.3d 1193
    , 1200 (8th Cir. 1997). The district judge, who in
    contrast to the state courts and to this court heard all but
    Williams testify, found them to be credible witnesses.
    Two of Hampton’s witnesses—Garner and Gregory
    Mallory—did suffer from more serious credibility problems,
    but the district court by no means overlooked these flaws as
    the State suggests. The court agreed with the State that
    Rodgon could not be faulted for failing to contact Garner,
    who had pleaded guilty and in doing so had not contested
    the evidentiary proffer that inculpated Hampton; Garner’s
    testimony therefore played no role in the court’s decision to
    grant relief to Hampton. Gregory Mallory’s testimony did
    factor into the court’s assessment, but the court was candid
    about his shortcomings as a witness. Years of drug abuse
    may well have taken their toll on Gregory’s faculties, al-
    though Mallory denied that his memory was impaired. But
    the district court had to look backward and consider what
    effect Gregory’s testimony might have had in 1982, when
    Hampton and his co-defendants were tried. Gregory was not
    yet a heroin user then; moreover, he had not only testified
    in his brother Ronald’s successful defense, but he also had
    testified at that time that Hampton had not participated in
    the attacks. Under those circumstances, Judge Kennelly
    had reason to believe that Gregory’s current testimony was
    not the product of delusion or fabrication and that Gregory
    would have made a credible witness for Hampton in 1982.
    For all of these reasons, Hampton was prejudiced by his
    attorney’s failure to look for and interview exculpatory oc-
    currence witnesses. A diligent attorney would have made an
    effort to locate such witnesses and, upon learning what they
    had to say, surely would have put them on the witness
    stand to testify on Hampton’s behalf. Although we cannot
    say with confidence that it is more likely than not that
    Hampton would have been acquitted had such witnesses
    been presented, his chances of acquittal with the support of
    No. 01-4186                                                65
    those witnesses certainly would have been better than neg-
    ligible. The State’s case, although more than sufficient to
    convict Hampton, was not so overwhelming that the
    outcome of the trial was a foregone conclusion.
    Although we have concluded that Hampton’s claim of
    ineffective assistance of counsel is meritorious, our work
    does not end there. Hampton is entitled to relief in habeas
    corpus only if the Illinois Appellate Court’s rejection of his
    ineffectiveness claim amounts to an objectively unreason-
    able application of Strickland. See Visciotti, 
    123 S. Ct. at 361
    ; Williams, 529 U.S. at 411, 120 S. Ct. at 1522; ante at
    46-47. For the reasons that follow—reasons that we have
    already touched upon—we believe that the Illinois Appel-
    late court unreasonably applied both prongs of the Strick-
    land test for ineffectiveness.
    The Illinois Appellate Court recognized that Hampton’s
    trial counsel was required either to undertake a reasonable
    investigation or to make a reasonable decision that an in-
    vestigation was unnecessary. App. Ct. Order at 6. As found
    by Judge Kennelly, Rodgon made no effort to locate and
    speak with potentially favorable occurrence witnesses. 
    2001 WL 1518533
    , at *8. Under Strickland, that failure to in-
    vestigate can be excused only if the decision not to look
    for such witnesses was itself reasonable. 
    466 U.S. at 690-91
    ,
    
    104 S. Ct. at 2066
    . Yet, neither of the two explanations that
    the state court posited for Rodgon’s failure to pursue ex-
    culpatory eyewitnesses—(1) those witnesses would place
    Hampton at the scene of the crime and link him to the
    perpetrators of the assaults, and (2) their testimony would
    be redundant (App. Ct. Order at 7)—is plausible, as we
    have pointed out. It was never in dispute that Hampton
    attended the concert, and testimony that he did so would
    not have incriminated him any more than it would have
    incriminated the thousands of other people who attended
    but did not participate in the attacks. Nor would such
    testimony have linked Hampton to the other perpetrators.
    66                                              No. 01-4186
    With the exception of Garner, whom we have assumed
    Rodgon was not obligated to contact in view of his guilty
    plea, none of the exculpatory witnesses Hampton has
    identified was implicated in the offenses. At the same time,
    eyewitness testimony to the effect that Hampton did not
    participate in the assaults logically cannot be written off
    as redundant. Whatever ammunition Rodgon had amassed
    against the State’s witnesses, he had no witness pointing
    affirmatively to Hampton’s innocence. In short, the record
    supplies no sound reason for Rodgon to have concluded
    that it was unnecessary to investigate eyewitnesses who
    would have exculpated Hampton. The Illinois Appellate
    Court’s contrary assessment was therefore unreasonable. It
    is wholly inconsistent with the facts of the case. See, e.g.,
    Rice v. McCann, 
    339 F.3d 546
    , 549 (7th Cir. 2003) (state
    court’s application of federal law is reasonable where it is
    “ ‘at least minimally consistent with the facts and circum-
    stances of the case’ ”) (quoting Sanchez v. Gilmore, 
    189 F.3d 619
    , 623 (7th Cir. 1999), cert. denied, 
    529 U.S. 1089
    ,
    
    120 S. Ct. 1724
     (2000)). It also stands in such tension with
    the duty to investigate acknowledged in Strickland that it
    was not only erroneous, but unreasonable. See Ward v.
    Sternes, supra, 
    334 F.3d at 705
    .
    As for prejudice, the Illinois Appellate Court character-
    ized the proof against Hampton as overwhelming, so that
    even if Rodgon had looked for, contacted, and presented
    exculpatory eyewitnesses on Hampton’s behalf, there is no
    reasonable probability that the outcome of the trial would
    have been different. Again, we do not doubt that the trial
    record as it stands supports Hampton’s conviction. But as
    we have emphasized, the case against Hampton rested en-
    tirely on the testimony of eyewitnesses who said that he
    participated in the assaults, and the identification testi-
    mony of these witnesses was by no means invulnerable.
    Against that backdrop, one cannot summarily discount the
    possibility that the outcome of the trial might have been
    different had the jury heard credible testimony from other
    No. 01-4186                                               67
    eyewitnesses that Hampton was not one of the assailants.
    Recall that under Strickland, Hampton need not convince
    the court that such testimony more likely than not would
    have resulted in his acquittal; he need only establish that
    this is a reasonable probability, a better than negligible
    likelihood. 
    466 U.S. at 693-94
    , 
    104 S. Ct. at 2068
    ; Miller v.
    Anderson, supra, 
    255 F.3d at 459
    . The exculpatory eyewit-
    nesses whom Rodgon never pursued have now been located,
    examined under oath, and found credible by the district
    judge. Obviously, we cannot predict how the jury would
    have resolved the credibility contest between the State’s
    witnesses and Hampton’s, but nothing in the record permits
    one to say that the jury inevitably would have discredited
    the exculpatory eyewitnesses. The appellate court’s one-
    sentence holding that Hampton could not establish preju-
    dice (App. Ct. Order at 5) was not a reasonable application
    of Strickland.
    The Illinois Appellate Court’s decision turned a blind eye
    both to the nature of the State’s case and to the importance
    of the eyewitnesses that Rodgon failed to locate and inter-
    view. Those witnesses, if believed, would alone have given
    the jury a reason to acquit Hampton, see Cosey v. Wolff,
    supra, 
    727 F.2d at
    658 n.3, and given the vulnerabilities in
    the testimony of the State’s witnesses, would have in-
    creased the odds of an acquittal. See Washington v. Smith,
    supra, 
    219 F.3d at 634
    ; Wright v. Gramley, supra, 
    125 F.3d at 1042-43
    . Rodgon’s failure to seek out exculpatory eye-
    witnesses who were readily available to him cannot fairly
    be described as a reasonable decision. Nor can the possibil-
    ity of a different outcome had Rodgon pursued this line
    of defense reasonably be quantified as no better than neg-
    ligible. See Miller, 
    255 F.3d at 459
    . The state court’s
    application of Strickland was therefore unreasonable, and
    Hampton is entitled to relief.
    68                                              No. 01-4186
    2. Failure to Fulfill Promises Made in Opening
    Statement
    In his opening statement, Rodgon made two representa-
    tions that form the basis for Hampton’s second claim of
    ineffectiveness. He promised the jury first that “Mr.
    Hampton will testify and tell you that he was at the concert.
    Mr. Hampton will tell you that he saw what happened but
    was not involved with it.” R. 48-2 at 543. He went on to
    promise the jury that “[t]he evidence will show that my
    client is not a member of any gang nor a part of a gang . . .
    .” 
    Id. at 544
    . Rodgon did not deliver on either prom-
    ise—Hampton did not testify, and the jury never heard any
    evidence establishing that Hampton lacked a gang affilia-
    tion.
    It bears noting that the foundation for this claim is the
    broken promise as opposed to the decision not to pursue
    a particular line of testimony. We may assume, without
    deciding, that it was reasonable for Rodgon to advise
    Hampton not to testify and not to present testimony from
    other witnesses about his lack of gang ties; such decisions
    are often motivated by strategic considerations that com-
    mand deference from the judiciary. E.g., Taylor v. United
    States, 
    287 F.3d 658
    , 662 (7th Cir. 2002); Foster v. Schomig,
    supra, 
    223 F.3d at 631
    . But Rodgon promised the jury that
    it would hear from Hampton and that it would also hear
    evidence that he had no gang involvement, and he reneged
    on his promises without explaining to the jury why he did
    so. Turnabouts of this sort may be justified when “unex-
    pected developments . . . warrant . . . changes in previously
    announced trial strategies.” Ouber v. Guarino, 
    293 F.3d 19
    ,
    29 (1st Cir. 2002) (citing Dutton v. Brown, 
    812 F.2d 593
    , 598
    (10th Cir.), cert. denied, 
    484 U.S. 836
    , 870, 
    108 S. Ct. 116
    ,
    197 (1987)); see also, e.g., Drake v. Clark, 
    14 F.3d 351
    , 356
    (7th Cir. 1994). However, when the failure to present the
    promised testimony cannot be chalked up to unforeseeable
    No. 01-4186                                                69
    events, the attorney’s broken promise may be unreasonable,
    for “little is more damaging than to fail to produce impor-
    tant evidence that had been promised in an opening.”
    Anderson v. Butler, 
    858 F.2d 16
    , 17 (1st Cir. 1988); see also
    Washington v. Smith, supra, 
    219 F.3d at 634
     (failure to
    produce witness identified in notice of alibi and mentioned
    during voir dire gave rise to “negative inference” against the
    defendant). The damage can be particularly acute when it
    is the defendant himself whose testimony fails to material-
    ize:
    When a jury is promised that it will hear the defen-
    dant’s story from the defendant’s own lips, and the
    defendant then reneges, common sense suggests that
    the course of trial may be profoundly altered. A broken
    promise of this magnitude taints both the lawyer who
    vouchsafed it and the client on whose behalf it was
    made.
    Ouber, 
    293 F.3d at 28
    .
    In this case, the Illinois Appellate Court ascribed the
    unfulfilled promise that Hampton would testify to a change
    in trial strategy. App. Ct. Order at 8. In the postconviction
    proceeding, Rodgon had testified that at the time of opening
    statements, he believed that Hampton would take the stand
    in his own defense. Subsequently, however, he raised with
    Hampton the possibility that his testimony might aggravate
    the possibility of the jury thinking him guilty by associa-
    tion. He therefore communicated this concern to Hampton,
    and Hampton made the decision not to testify. The
    postconviction judge found Rodgon credible on this point. R.
    48-7 at D58-59. In the Appellate Court’s view, this change
    of strategy “cannot support an ineffective assistance of
    counsel claim.” App. Ct. Order at 8.
    The potential disadvantages of Hampton’s testimony were
    ones that would have been obvious from the outset of the
    case, however, and thus do not justify Rodgon’s decision to
    70                                              No. 01-4186
    promise the jury that Hampton would testify and then
    renege on that promise. We have already voiced our skep-
    ticism of the validity of the “guilt by association” theory;
    and the record does not shed any light on the reasons why
    Rodgon thought that Hampton otherwise might not hold
    up on cross-examination. But we may put these points aside
    and assume that Rodgon legitimately concluded that
    Hampton’s testimony posed a substantial risk to the defense
    for the reasons he cited. Nonetheless, the circumstances
    that gave Rodgon pause were entirely foreseeable at the
    time he made his opening statement. Hampton himself was
    obviously available to Rodgon before the trial started, such
    that Rodgon could have assessed his strengths and weak-
    nesses as a prospective defense witness. If Hampton was a
    weak witness, Rodgon should have ascertained that before
    he announced that Hampton would take the stand; nothing
    in the record suggests that anything material to Hampton’s
    worth as a witness remained a secret until after Rodgon
    had made that promise. See Oubler, 
    293 F.3d at 29
    . Nor did
    the guilt by association issue emerge unexpectedly later in
    the trial. It was never a secret that Hampton was present
    at the concert, that he attended the concert with friends, or
    that he knew other individuals (for example, Garner) who
    were implicated in the attacks.
    Thus, to the extent that Rodgon had legitimate reasons to
    conclude that Hampton should not testify, it was unreason-
    able for him to tell the jury that Hampton would take the
    stand. Nothing was to be gained from making that promise,
    only to renege upon it later without explanation. The jury
    was lead to believe that Hampton had a story to tell that
    was diametrically opposed to that of his accusers; it was
    told, in essence, that there were two versions of what oc-
    curred and that it would have the opportunity to evaluate
    Hampton’s own credibility in choosing between those ver-
    sions. In the end, however, the jury never heard a second
    version of what occurred—from Hampton or any other
    No. 01-4186                                               71
    eyewitness; it heard only the State’s account of events. And
    in that context, Hampton’s unexplained failure to take the
    witness stand may well have conveyed to the jury the im-
    pression that in fact there was no alternate version of the
    events that took place, and that the inculpatory testimony
    of the prosecution’s witnesses was essentially correct. See
    Harris v. Reed, supra, 
    894 F.2d at 879
     (failure to present
    exculpatory testimony as promised “left the jury free to
    believe [the prosecution’s witness’s] account of the inci-
    dent as the only account”); see also Ouber, 
    293 F.3d at 34
    .
    Rodgon’s decision to promise Hampton’s testimony and then
    to break with that promise was objectively unreasonable.
    Although less important, we also cannot ignore the failure
    to present testimony that Hampton was not involved with
    a gang, an omission that the state appellate court noted
    (App. Ct. Order at 8) but did not explicitly address (see id.
    at 7-9). Powell’s testimony that the group of men who
    perpetrated the attacks had approached the stage of the
    theater chanting “Third World Disciple Nation” and making
    apparent gang signals with their hands suggested that the
    attacks were gang-related. Against that backdrop, evidence
    that Hampton was neither a gang member nor involved
    with a gang arguably was relevant to an assessment of
    Hampton’s guilt or innocence in the sense that it tended to
    make his participation in the attacks less likely. Just as a
    defendant’s affiliation with a gang may be probative of his
    relationship with other participants in a crime and his
    connection to the charged offense, see United States v.
    Thomas, 
    86 F.3d 647
    , 652 (7th Cir.), cert. denied, 
    519 U.S. 967
    , 
    117 S. Ct. 392
     (1996), proof that the defendant lacks
    any gang affiliation may bear on the likelihood that he
    participated in criminal activity with unmistakable gang
    overtones. To be sure, evidence of a defendant’s gang af-
    filiation or lack thereof is by no means dispositive of his
    guilt or innocence. But to the extent it sheds light upon
    72                                                   No. 01-4186
    the defendant’s relationship with other perpetrators of the
    crime, and perhaps on his motive to commit the crime, it is
    relevant nonetheless. Rodgon himself plainly recognized as
    much when he informed the jury that Hampton was not a
    gang member and, more to the point, told jurors that they
    would hear evidence to that effect. As the record reveals
    and as Judge Kennelly found, testimony along these lines
    was readily available to Rodgon; he simply failed to pursue
    it. We may assume that it would have been entirely rea-
    sonable for Rodgon not to look for and introduce such
    evidence in the absence of a promise that such evidence
    would be presented. But having created an expectation that
    the jury would hear evidence tending to disassociate
    Hampton from the group of men who perpetrated the at-
    tack, it was unreasonable for Rodgon not to follow through
    by eliciting testimony on this point. His failure to do so
    could only have undercut the credibility of the defense with
    the jury.
    The Illinois Appellate Court’s determination that it was
    reasonable for Hampton Rodgon to make and then break
    these promises as a matter of evolving trial strategy was
    unreasonable. Making such promises and then abandoning
    them for reasons that were apparent at the time the prom-
    ises were made18 cannot be described as legitimate trial
    strategy. Promising a particular type of testimony creates
    an expectation in the minds of jurors, and when defense
    counsel without explanation fails to keep that promise, the
    jury may well infer that the testimony would have been
    18
    The record is silent as to Rodgon’s reasons, if any, for abandon-
    ing the promise to present evidence that Hampton was not affil-
    iated with a gang. In the absence of any indication that some sub-
    sequent development rendered Rodgon unable to present such evi-
    dence, we shall assume that Rodgon decided not to present such
    testimony for reasons akin to the concerns that led him not to call
    Hampton himself to the stand.
    No. 01-4186                                               73
    adverse to his client and may also question the attorney’s
    credibility. In no sense does it serve the defendant’s in-
    terests. Abandoning the promise may be necessary when
    things do not pan out as the attorney reasonably expected
    or the detriments of the promised evidence become clear
    only later. But for the reasons we have discussed, that was
    not the case here. Rodgon’s failure to call Hampton as a
    witness or to establish his lack of gang ties cannot be
    chalked up to a change in trial strategy. The Illinois
    Appellate Court’s effort to do so is inconsistent with the
    facts of the case, and unreasonable in that regard. See Rice
    v. McCann, 
    supra,
     
    339 F.3d at 549
    .
    Although we agree with the district court that Rodgon’s
    breach of the promises he made in the opening statement
    was not so prejudicial that it would support relief in and of
    itself, the breach serves to underscore the more important
    failure to investigate exculpatory occurrence witnesses. Al-
    though Rodgon exploited what weaknesses there were in
    the State’s case, he elicited no affirmative evidence that
    Hampton did not participate in the attacks. The jury was
    given reason to question how good of a look the State’s
    witnesses had gotten of the assailant they identified as
    Hampton, but was presented with no evidence that the as-
    sailant was not Hampton. What is more, Rodgon promised
    the jury that it would hear Hampton testify to his inno-
    cence, and then failed to deliver on that promise. He pro-
    mised the jury that it would hear evidence that Hampton
    was not involved in any gang, and then failed to deliver on
    that promise as well. Those broken promises themselves
    supplied the jury with reason to believe that there was no
    evidence contradicting the State’s case, and thus to doubt
    the validity of Hampton’s defense. See Harris, 
    894 F.2d at 879
    .
    74                                              No. 01-4186
    IV.
    For the reasons we have identified, we conclude Hampton
    was deprived of the effective assistance of trial counsel, in
    violation of the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments to the
    Constitution. The Illinois Appellate Court’s contrary con-
    clusion was the result of an unreasonable application of the
    principles identified in Strickland v. Washington. After
    careful review of the record, we are left with the definite
    and firm conviction that the result of Hampton’s trial is not
    reliable. We therefore agree with the district judge, who
    handled this case with commendable thoroughness, that
    Hampton is entitled to a writ of habeas corpus.
    AFFIRMED
    MANION, Circuit Judge, dissenting. Twenty-one years ago
    Patrick Hampton began to serve a sixty-year sentence for
    deviate sexual assault, attempted rape and related crimes.
    At his trial, the prosecution presented the testimony of two
    of the three victims, Martha N. and Denise M., who clearly
    identified and implicated Hampton in the brutal crimes. In
    addition, the prosecution presented the testimony of a se-
    curity guard at the concert, who unequivocally identified
    Hampton as the person he saw actively participating in the
    sexual assault of Denise M. Despite this evidence, the court
    has held that primarily because Hampton’s attorney failed
    to interview several of Hampton’s friends who were also at
    the concert, and possibly present their testimony, his repre-
    sentation of Hampton at trial was constitutionally deficient.
    However, even if we assume that Hampton’s attorney could
    No. 01-4186                                                 75
    have performed better in his service, because of the strong
    evidence of Hampton’s guilt it is not reasonably probable
    that the outcome of the trial would have been different.
    Therefore, because the Illinois Appellate Court reasonably
    applied relevant federal law to the facts of this case, I re-
    spectfully dissent and would reverse the district court’s
    grant of habeas corpus.
    In order to succeed on a claim of ineffective assistance of
    counsel, a petitioner is required to demonstrate that his
    counsel’s conduct fell below an objective standard of rea-
    sonableness and that he was prejudiced by that sub-stan-
    dard performance. Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    ,
    687 (1984). Strickland’s prejudice inquiry looks at whether
    “counsel’s errors were so serious as to deprive the defendant
    of a fair trial, a trial whose result is reliable.” Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 687
    . This requires the defendant to show “a
    reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional
    errors, the result of the proceeding would have been differ-
    ent.” 
    Id. at 694
    . A reasonable probability, under Strickland,
    “is one sufficient to undermine confidence in the outcome of
    the trial.” 
    Id.
     Additionally, under the AEDPA, a federal
    habeas court must consider whether the state court’s
    decision was an objectively unreasonable application of
    Strickland regarding the prejudice prong. Roche v. Davis,
    
    291 F.3d 473
    , 481 (7th Cir. 2002). Here, Hampton cannot
    meet the Strickland requirements for demonstrating preju-
    dice and therefore the Illinois state court’s application of
    those requirements was not unreasonable.
    Although Hampton’s attorney Rodgon failed to investigate
    three of Hampton’s friends who may have testified that
    Hampton did not participate in the crime, this does not
    necessarily demonstrate prejudice. Even if we assume that
    all three witnesses would have testified at trial, it is likely
    that their testimony would have been conflicting, as demon-
    strated by their conflicting affidavits, and could have been
    more of a hindrance than a help.
    76                                               No. 01-4186
    Additionally, the court relies on the fact that because one
    of Hampton’s codefendants, Ronald Mallory, was acquitted,
    it demonstrates that further investigation into defense wit-
    nesses may have produced a different result for Hampton.
    Such reliance is misplaced. Ronald Mallory only had to
    contend with the identification of one victim, whereas three
    individuals—the two victims and one security guard—
    clearly and concisely identified Hampton.
    Finally, his attorney’s failure to present Hampton’s own
    testimony to the jury or present evidence of his lack of gang
    affiliation, after promising to do both in his opening state-
    ment, similarly does not rise to the level of prejudice under
    Strickland. The court does not hold that the testimony that
    Hampton would have delivered in his defense could have
    swayed the jury, but instead holds that Rodgon should have
    explained why his client did not testify. But any explana-
    tion could be complicated and risky, and might have simply
    underscored the fact that he did not testify. The court also
    does not mention that Rodgon did not need to present evi-
    dence as to Hampton’s gang affiliation, despite his promise
    in his opening statement, because the State did not present
    any evidence with regard to Hampton’s gang affiliation.
    Without such evidence, Rodgon did not have anything to
    rebut. In fact, without the State’s evidence, it would have
    been potentially damaging for Rodgon to broach the issue of
    Hampton’s possible gang affiliation.
    II
    Therefore, because of the questionable prejudice caused
    by Rodgon’s alleged errors and the strong evidence of his
    guilt, Hampton has failed to demonstrate a reasonable
    probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the
    result of his trial would have been different. These deficien-
    cies similarly preclude a finding that the Illinois Appellate
    Court’s dismissal of Hampton’s claims of ineffective assis-
    No. 01-4186                                              77
    tance of counsel was an objectively unreasonable applica-
    tion of Strickland. I would, therefore, reverse and remand
    to the district court with instructions to deny the petition
    for habeas corpus, and I respectfully dissent.
    A true Copy:
    Teste:
    ________________________________
    Clerk of the United States Court of
    Appeals for the Seventh Circuit
    USCA-02-C-0072—10-14-03