Bethel, Julian C. v. United States ( 2006 )


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  •                             In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    ____________
    No. 04-4108
    JULIAN C. BETHEL,
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    v.
    UNITED STATES    OF   AMERICA,
    Respondent-Appellee.
    ____________
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Western District of Wisconsin.
    No. 04 C 371—John C. Shabaz, Judge.
    ____________
    ARGUED NOVEMBER 9, 2005—DECIDED AUGUST 17, 2006
    ____________
    Before POSNER, ROVNER and WOOD, Circuit Judges.
    ROVNER, Circuit Judge. Julian C. Bethel pled guilty to
    one count of conspiracy to distribute more than 100 kilo-
    grams of marijuana in violation of 
    21 U.S.C. § 846
    . He was
    sentenced to 192 months’ imprisonment. That sentence was
    based in part on the classification of Bethel as a “career
    offender” pursuant to § 4B1.1 of the U.S. Sentencing
    Guidelines (“Guidelines”). We affirmed that sentence in an
    unpublished order, United States v. Bethel, 
    2003 WL 1545261
     (7th Cir. March 24, 2003), and Bethel subsequently
    filed a motion to vacate his sentence under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    . The crux of Bethel’s claim is that his attorney
    provided ineffective assistance by failing to warn him before
    he pled guilty that he would be subject to treatment as a
    2                                              No. 04-4108
    career offender, instead advising him that his sentence
    would be in the range of 100-125 months, substantially less
    than the 192 months to which he was ultimately sentenced.
    The district court rejected his claim, and we affirm.
    I.
    A grand jury returned an eight-count indictment against
    Bethel and three co-defendants. Count I charged all four
    defendants with conspiracy to distribute and possession
    with intent to distribute more than 100 kilograms of
    marijuana. Count V charged Bethel with distributing
    marijuana. The remaining counts were directed at
    Bethel’s co-defendants. Following his March 2001 arrest,
    Bethel made many incriminating statements to law enforce-
    ment officers about his drug-related activities. He told the
    officers he had been dealing marijuana since January 1998.
    Although the officers were able to verify that Bethel
    regularly dealt in large quantities of marijuana, Bethel
    claimed he was never a “big dealer,” and that the largest
    quantity of marijuana he bought at any one time was
    twelve pounds. Bethel provided varying estimates of his
    marijuana purchases, at first conceding that he regularly
    purchased five pounds of marijuana per week, but subse-
    quently admitting to buying seven pounds every two weeks.
    He stated that in the middle of 1998, he was purchasing
    approximately six pounds of marijuana per month from his
    co-defendants, and by the end of 1998, he was averaging
    three to five pounds per week. In 1999, he averaged ten to
    twenty pounds per month, but slowed his buying habits
    somewhat in 2000 after he was approached by the Dane
    County Narcotics Gang Task Force. The probation office
    calculated that, by Bethel’s own admissions, he purchased
    approximately 480 pounds (or 218 kilograms) of marijuana
    between April 1998 and March 2001. Law enforcement
    officers also interviewed six people who purchased mari-
    No. 04-4108                                                  3
    juana from Bethel. Those purchases totaled approximately
    930 pounds (or 422 kilograms). Having bought and sold
    nearly a half ton of marijuana in a three-year period, Bethel
    apparently had a different definition of “big dealer” than
    most people would have.
    Bethel pled guilty to Count I; Count V was dismissed.
    Prior to pleading guilty, his lawyer advised him that he was
    facing a sentence of 100 to 125 months. The lawyer pre-
    dicted that Bethel would start with a base offense level of
    28 under Guideline 2D1.1(a)(3) because he sold more than
    400 but less than 700 kilograms of marijuana. Counsel
    anticipated that Bethel would receive a three-level reduc-
    tion under Guideline 3E1.1 for acceptance of responsibility
    because Bethel pled guilty promptly after his indictment
    and cooperated with the government. Based on Bethel’s
    prior criminal record, the lawyer opined that Bethel’s
    criminal history category would rate a level V.
    The probation office prepared a presentence report
    (“PSR”) that recommended the same Guideline range that
    Bethel’s attorney had calculated, 100 to 125 months of
    imprisonment. The government, however, objected to this
    calculation, and recommended that Bethel be sentenced as
    a career offender pursuant to Guideline 4B1.1. The applica-
    tion of Guideline 4B1.1 increased the base offense level
    from 28 to 34 and raised the criminal history category from
    V to VI. The resultant sentencing range was 188 to 235
    months. The government based this argument on two prior
    state court convictions, one for possession with intent to
    distribute cocaine and one for battery. Bethel conceded that
    the prior state court drug conviction qualified as a felony for
    the purposes of the Guidelines but disputed the character-
    ization of the battery conviction as a felony crime of vio-
    lence. According to the criminal complaint for the battery,
    during an argument with his girlfriend, Marie Johnson,
    Bethel slapped a telephone out of her hands, wrapped his
    hands around her neck and pinned her to a wall. He
    4                                                No. 04-4108
    squeezed her neck, pressing against her windpipe with his
    thumbs so that she could neither speak nor breathe. He
    released his hold when Johnson’s friend intervened. Bethel
    told Johnson, “I could have killed you but I didn’t.” Bethel
    pled guilty to a Wisconsin misdemeanor charge of battery
    and received a sentence of forty-five days in jail and two
    years of probation. The government noted that although
    Bethel was convicted of misdemeanor battery under Wis.
    Stat § 940.19, he also was charged as a repeat offender
    under 
    Wis. Stat. § 939.62
    . Under the repeat offender
    provision, he was subject to a term of up to three years of
    imprisonment which, the government argued, qualified as
    a felony crime of violence under either subsection of
    Guideline 4B1.2.
    Neither Bethel’s attorney nor the probation office initially
    interpreted Bethel’s criminal record this way and so neither
    realized that Bethel could be subjected to the career
    offender provision of the Guidelines. Bethel’s attorney
    promptly objected to the government’s recommendation that
    Bethel be sentenced as a career offender. Counsel noted
    that § 940.19 carried a maximum penalty of nine months’
    imprisonment and that the habitual criminal enhancement
    count under § 939.62 was dismissed at Bethel’s sentencing
    hearing in state court. Counsel based this argument on a
    review of the Circuit Court Automation Program, a data-
    base that showed the habitual criminal enhancement as
    dismissed as of sentencing. Counsel indicated he had filed
    a written request for the case file from the Dane County
    Clerk of Courts Office in an attempt to verify this informa-
    tion. It is unclear from the record whether counsel had
    reviewed the database prior to advising Bethel on his
    probable sentence or whether the attorney did not investi-
    gate this issue until the government raised it as an objec-
    tion to the PSR.
    In any case, the probation office agreed with the govern-
    ment and filed an addendum to the PSR recommending that
    No. 04-4108                                                 5
    Bethel be sentenced as a career offender with a sentencing
    range of 188 to 235 months. Apparently, while Bethel was
    on probation for the Wisconsin assault charge (he also was
    still on probation for the Wisconsin conviction for possession
    with intent to deliver cocaine), he assaulted Johnson again,
    broke down the door of her home, and failed to report to his
    probation agent as required. For these new incidents, both
    Wisconsin probations were revoked and he was sentenced
    to an additional six months’ imprisonment on the assault
    charge to be served consecutively to an additional three
    years on the cocaine charge. The federal probation office
    therefore opined that Bethel was subject to a maximum
    three year term for his original assault and thus was a two-
    time felon at the time of his sentencing in the instant case.
    The only dispute at Bethel’s sentencing hearing was
    whether the career offender provision applied. Guideline
    4B1.1(a) sets forth the relevant factors in making this
    determination:
    A defendant is a career offender if (1) the defendant
    was at least eighteen years old at the time the defen-
    dant committed the instant offense of conviction; (2) the
    instant offense of conviction is a felony that is either a
    crime of violence or a controlled substance offense; and
    (3) the defendant has at least two prior felony convic-
    tions of either a crime of violence or a controlled sub-
    stance offense.
    Bethel did not dispute the first two factors. For the last
    factor, Bethel conceded that he had one prior conviction
    meeting the provision, the 1994 conviction for possessing
    cocaine with the intent to deliver. The center of the sentenc-
    ing hearing was the 1995 conviction for battery. The
    description of the crime foreclosed argument about whether
    this was a crime of violence. With both the government and
    the probation office now characterizing the battery as a
    felony, the district court sentenced Bethel as a career
    offender to 192 months’ imprisonment. We subsequently
    affirmed Bethel’s sentence, citing as dispositive United
    6                                                   No. 04-4108
    States v. Bissonette, 
    281 F.3d 645
    , 646-47 (7th Cir. 2002).
    Although Bissonette post-dated Bethel’s sentencing, Bethel
    maintains that his attorney should have been able to
    predict the application of the career offender provision
    under then-existing Supreme Court precedent, namely
    United States v. LaBonte, 
    520 U.S. 751
     (1997).
    After we affirmed the sentence on direct appeal, Bethel
    moved to vacate his sentence under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
     on the
    ground that his attorney provided ineffective assistance
    by failing to advise him that he would be eligible for
    treatment as a career offender.1 The district court denied
    Bethel’s request to hold an evidentiary hearing, deeming it
    unnecessary under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    . The court noted that
    under Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984),
    Bethel must show that his lawyer’s representation fell
    below an objective standard of reasonableness, and that the
    deficient performance so prejudiced his defense that
    it deprived him of a fair trial. In the context of a guilty plea,
    the court observed that Bethel must show that but for
    counsel’s deficient advice, he would have insisted on
    proceeding to trial. After noting these standards, the court
    analyzed Bethel’s claim:
    Petitioner has not demonstrated that his counsel’s
    actions fell below an objective standard of reasonable-
    ness or that absent the advice of counsel he would have
    proceeded to trial because he would still have been
    subjected to the career offender sentence. Accordingly,
    petitioner was not denied effective assistance of counsel
    and his motion under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
     on this ground
    will be denied.
    1
    In his pro se motion, Bethel also argued again that the court
    erred by sentencing him as a career offender and that his sentence
    violated Apprendi v. New Jersey, 
    530 U.S. 466
     (2000). Those
    claims are not part of this appeal.
    No. 04-4108                                                   7
    Bethel v. United States, No. 04-C-371-S, Memorandum and
    Order, at 4-5 (W.D. Wisc. Sept. 21, 2004). The district court
    subsequently denied Bethel’s request for a certificate of
    appealability. We construed his notice of appeal as an
    application for a certificate of appealability in this court. We
    found that Bethel had made a substantial showing of the
    denial of a constitutional right on the issue of whether
    counsel was ineffective when he failed to warn Bethel that
    he could be sentenced as a career criminal offender. We
    granted the certificate of appealability as to that issue,
    granted Bethel’s motion to proceed in forma pauperis, and
    sua sponte appointed counsel.
    II.
    On appeal, Bethel argues that he meets both prongs of
    the Strickland test to establish ineffective assistance of
    counsel. First, he contends that his lawyer’s performance
    fell short of objectively reasonable standards when he failed
    to advise Bethel that he could be subject to the career
    offender provision, exposing him to a sentence nearly twice
    as long as the one counsel predicted. Second, Bethel
    maintains he has credibly shown that but for counsel’s
    deficient advice, there is a reasonable probability that he
    would not have accepted the plea agreement, but instead
    would have insisted on putting the government to its
    burden of proof at trial.
    A.
    In early May 2001, Bethel signed a plea agreement with
    the U.S. Attorney’s office. The plea agreement provided
    in relevant part:
    The defendant understands that any guideline compu-
    tation discussions are not part of the plea agreement.
    The defendant should not rely upon the possibility of a
    8                                               No. 04-4108
    particular sentence based upon any guideline computa-
    tion discussions between defense counsel and the
    United States.
    R. 31, at 4. Bethel also acknowledged in the plea letter that
    the United States made no promises or guarantees regard-
    ing the sentence to be imposed, and that the court could
    impose any sentence up to the statutory maximum subject
    to the limits imposed by the Guidelines. R. 31, at 4.
    At Bethel’s change of plea hearing, the district court
    posed a series of questions in order to determine that
    Bethel’s plea was both knowing and voluntary. R. 109, at 3-
    7. After determining that Bethel understood his plea
    agreement and had discussed it with his lawyer, the court
    asked Bethel if anyone made any other promise or assur-
    ance to him to induce him to plead guilty. R. 109, at 7, 10.
    Under oath, Bethel denied that anyone had made any
    promises or assurances. He also affirmed his understanding
    (1) that his sentence could be more severe than he might be
    expecting; (2) that the statutory minimum was five years’
    imprisonment and the maximum was forty years; (3) that
    the government reserved the right to challenge the Guide-
    lines computations prepared by the probation office; (4) that
    the government agreed in its discretion to move for a
    sentence reduction if Bethel provided substantial assistance
    to the government but that the court was not obliged to
    grant the motion; (5) that any Guideline computation
    discussions were not part of the plea agreement; (6) that
    Bethel should not rely upon the possibility of a particular
    sentence based on guideline computation discussions held
    between defense counsel and the government; and (7) that
    the court was free to reject any recommendation as to
    sentence and was free to impose any sentence up to and
    including the statutory maximum subject only to the limits
    of the Guidelines. R. 109, at 15, 18-22. The court also asked
    Bethel:
    Do you understand that the Court will not be able to
    determine the guideline sentence for your case until
    No. 04-4108                                                      9
    after the presentence report has been completed and . . .
    you have had the opportunity as will the government to
    challenge the reported facts and the application of the
    guidelines recommended by the probation officer and
    that the sentence imposed may be different from any
    estimate your attorney may have given you. . . . Is that
    your understanding, Mr. Bethel?
    R. 109, at 22. Bethel replied, “Yes, sir.” 
    Id.
     Bethel also
    affirmed that he understood that the Court had the author-
    ity in some circumstances to depart from the Guidelines and
    impose a sentence that was either more severe or less
    severe than the sentence called for by the Guidelines.2 The
    court explained again that after Bethel pled guilty, a
    presentence report would be prepared to assist the court in
    determining an appropriate sentence. At the end of this
    discussion, Bethel entered a plea of guilty.
    3 R. 109
    , at 39.
    B.
    When a district court denies a petition under § 2255, we
    review fact findings for clear error and issues of law de
    novo. Galbraith v. United States, 
    313 F.3d 1001
    , 1006 (7th
    2
    Bethel’s change of plea hearing and sentencing hearing were
    held in 2001, long before the Supreme Court ruled that the
    Guidelines were to be treated as advisory rather than mandatory.
    See United States v. Booker, 
    543 U.S. 220
     (2005).
    3
    The court also walked Bethel through the various applicable
    provisions of the plea agreement itself, confirming his understand-
    ing of the terms of that document and his assent to the agree-
    ment. The plea agreement provided that if Bethel provided
    substantial assistance to the government in an investigation
    or prosecution of another person, the government would, in its
    discretion, move under Guideline 5K1.1 for a downward departure
    in Bethel’s sentence. The plea agreement reserved to both Bethel
    and the government the right to challenge the Guide-
    lines calculations made by the probation office.
    10                                               No. 04-4108
    Cir. 2002). The district court made no fact-findings and our
    review is thus de novo. In order to make out a claim for
    ineffective assistance of counsel in the context of a guilty
    plea, a defendant must show (1) that counsel’s performance
    fell below an objective standard of reasonableness; and (2)
    that there is a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s
    errors, the defendant would not have pled guilty and would
    have insisted on going to trial. Hill v. Lockhart, 
    474 U.S. 52
    ,
    57-59 (1985); Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 687-88
    . See also Moore
    v. Bryant, 
    348 F.3d 238
    , 241 (7th Cir. 2003) (to show
    ineffective assistance in the context of a guilty plea, a
    defendant must demonstrate that counsel’s advice regard-
    ing the plea was objectively unreasonable and that there is
    a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s error, the
    defendant would not have pled guilty but would have
    insisted on going to trial); Galbraith, 
    313 F.3d at 1008
     (to
    meet the prejudice prong of the Strickland test in the
    context of a guilty plea, the defendant must show that but
    for counsel’s error, he would not have pled guilty).
    When assessing counsel’s performance, we have noted
    that a reasonably competent lawyer will attempt to learn all
    of the relevant facts of the case, make an estimate of
    a likely sentence, and communicate the results of that
    analysis to the client before allowing the client to plead
    guilty. Moore, 
    348 F.3d at 241
    . See also United States v.
    Cieslowski, 
    410 F.3d 353
    , 358-59 (7th Cir. 2005), cert.
    denied, 
    126 S. Ct. 1021
     (2006) (to prove inadequate perfor-
    mance, a defendant must show that counsel did not attempt
    to learn the facts of the case and failed to make a good-faith
    estimate of a likely sentence); United States v. Martinez,
    
    169 F.3d 1049
    , 1053 (7th Cir. 1999) (to provide effective
    assistance of counsel in a guilty plea, counsel must attempt
    to learn the facts of the case and make a good-faith estimate
    of a likely sentence); United States v. Barnes, 
    83 F.3d 934
    ,
    939 (7th Cir.), cert. denied, 
    519 U.S. 857
     (1996) (a reason-
    ably competent counsel will attempt to learn all of the facts
    No. 04-4108                                               11
    of the case, make an estimate of a likely sentence, and
    communicate the results of that analysis to the client). The
    Supreme Court has noted the many uncertainties surround-
    ing the difficult decision of whether to plead guilty.
    McMann v. Richardson, 
    397 U.S. 759
    , 769-70 (1970).
    Because many questions about the facts and how a court or
    jury will apply the law to those facts cannot be answered by
    counsel with certitude, “[w]aiving trial entails the inherent
    risk that the good-faith evaluations of a reasonably compe-
    tent attorney will turn out to be mistaken either as to the
    facts or as to what a court’s judgment might be on given
    facts.” McMann, 
    397 U.S. at 770
    .
    Although a gross mischaracterization of the sentencing
    consequences of a plea may strongly indicate deficient
    performance, it is not proof of deficiency. Cieslowski, 
    410 F.3d at 359
    . The government does not contest Bethel’s claim
    that his lawyer failed to advise him that he would
    be subject to the career offender provision, which exposed
    him to nearly double his lawyer’s estimate of the applicable
    Guidelines sentencing range. The salient question is
    whether counsel undertook a good-faith effort to determine
    the applicable facts and estimate the sentence. An inaccu-
    rate prediction of a sentence alone is not enough to meet the
    standard. Barnes, 
    83 F.3d at 940
    ; United States v. Arvanitis,
    
    902 F.2d 489
    , 494 (7th Cir. 1990). Because the district court
    declined to hold a hearing, the record is wholly undeveloped
    on the issue of the efforts that Bethel’s lawyer undertook to
    estimate Bethel’s sentence before recommending that
    Bethel plead guilty. We do not know, for example, whether
    counsel examined the state’s database for information on
    the battery charge before he advised Bethel about his
    sentence or only after the government objected to the PSR.
    We do not know if the database inaccurately showed that
    the habitual criminal enhancement count under § 939.62
    had been dismissed at Bethel’s sentencing hearing in state
    court. Nor do we know whether counsel investigated the
    12                                              No. 04-4108
    effect of Bethel’s probation violation on that dismissal. At
    best, we know that whatever error counsel made was
    repeated by the probation office when it first calculated the
    sentencing range. It is certainly possible in this situation
    that Bethel’s attorney made a good-faith effort to learn all
    of the relevant facts and calculate a probable sentence and
    still made a mistake. Although the effect of the mistake was
    a rather large discrepancy in the possible sentence pre-
    dicted, the error could have been based on a subtle misin-
    terpretation of Bethel’s state court criminal record, which
    itself appears somewhat muddled. See Galbraith, 
    313 F.3d at 1008
     (the ineffective assistance analysis takes place
    in the context of a presumption that an attorney’s conduct
    is reasonably proficient). Because there was no hearing on
    the issue, however, there is simply not enough here to
    determine what efforts counsel undertook in calculating the
    sentencing range he communicated to Bethel. We thus
    cannot determine whether counsel’s performance fell below
    an objective standard of reasonableness.
    But even if we assume that counsel’s advice regarding the
    plea was objectively unreasonable (and again, we make no
    such judgment today), Bethel has not shown that, absent
    counsel’s erroneous advice, he would not have pled guilty
    but would have insisted on going to trial. In an affidavit in
    support of his § 2255 motion, Bethel asserted, “[M]y
    appointed counsel ‘coerced’ me into pleading guilty with
    misinformation as to the sentence that I would receive in
    exchange for my plea.” R. 91, ¶ 5. In describing that
    misinformation, he complains that through the pre-trial
    stage, the change of plea hearing and the first PSR, he was
    not informed that his sentence could be enhanced under the
    career criminal provisions of the Guidelines. R. 91, ¶ 6.
    Although it appears true that no one mentioned this
    particular enhancement to him, the district court advised
    Bethel that his sentence could be more severe than he
    might be expecting; that the government reserved the right
    No. 04-4108                                                 13
    to challenge the Guidelines computations prepared by the
    probation office; that any Guideline computation discus-
    sions were not part of the plea agreement; and that Bethel
    should not rely upon the possibility of a particular sentence
    based on Guideline computation discussions held between
    defense counsel and the government. The court advised
    Bethel that “the Court will not be able to determine the
    guideline sentence for your case until after the presentence
    report has been completed and . . . you have had the
    opportunity as will the government to challenge the re-
    ported facts and the application of the guidelines recom-
    mended by the probation officer and that the sentence
    imposed may be different from any estimate your attorney
    may have given you.” R. 109, at 22. The court thus informed
    Bethel in six or seven different ways that he could not rely
    on any particular predictions or discussions about a possible
    sentence when he entered his plea. Under oath, Bethel
    stated that he understood all of this and still wanted to
    plead guilty. In doing so, he was affirming that his guilty
    plea was not made in reliance of a particular sentence. He
    cannot now be heard to complain that he would not have
    pled guilty if he had known his sentence would be more
    severe than his lawyer predicted. He specifically disclaimed
    that risk at his change of plea hearing.
    We have stated many times that a mere allegation by
    the defendant that he would have insisted on going to
    trial is not sufficient to establish prejudice. Cieslowski, 
    410 F.3d at 359
    ; Berkey v. United States, 
    318 F.3d 768
    , 772-73
    (7th Cir. 2003), cert. denied, 
    541 U.S. 1055
     (2004); Barker v.
    United States, 
    7 F.3d 629
    , 633 (7th Cir. 1993), cert. denied,
    
    510 U.S. 1099
     (1994). Bethel has more than a mere allega-
    tion; he can show that his lawyer’s prediction was mistaken
    by a considerable margin. See Moore, 
    348 F.3d at 242-43
     (an
    erroneous sentencing prediction of nearly double the time
    that the defendant would actually have faced had he
    proceeded to trial is precisely the type of information that
    14                                               No. 04-4108
    is likely to impact a plea decision); Barnes, 
    83 F.3d at 940
    (a gross mischaracterization of the sentencing consequences
    of a plea may provide a strong indication of deficient
    performance). That margin might give us pause if Bethel
    had not repeatedly insisted at his plea hearing that he was
    not relying on a particular sentence in entering his plea. See
    United States v. Peterson, 
    414 F.3d 825
    , 827 (7th Cir.), cert.
    denied, 
    126 S. Ct. 592
     (2005). In that case, Peterson moved
    to withdraw his guilty plea, arguing that it was involuntary
    because his attorney falsely promised him that his federal
    sentence would run concurrently with any punishment
    under state law. At his plea hearing, Peterson, like Bethel,
    insisted that no one had promised him anything in ex-
    change for his plea. The judge then asked Peterson if he
    understood that the sentences might not be concurrent and
    he indicated that he did. We remarked, “Judges need not let
    litigants contradict themselves so readily; a motion that can
    succeed only if the defendant committed perjury at the plea
    proceedings may be rejected out of hand unless the defen-
    dant has a compelling explanation for the contradiction.”
    Peterson, 
    414 F.3d at 827
    . Bethel’s situation differs only in
    that the court did not inquire about the specific Guideline
    provision that is now at issue. Bethel made broad and
    repeated concessions that he understood his sentence could
    be more severe than predicted and that he was not relying
    on a particular sentence in signing the plea agreement and
    pleading guilty. He offers no compelling explanation for his
    current claim that he would not have pled guilty had he
    known his sentence would be higher than predicted, a claim
    that directly contradicts his statements at the change of
    plea hearing. To prove the prejudice prong of the Hill
    analysis, a defendant must show that his lawyer’s defi-
    ciency was a decisive factor in his decision to plead guilty.
    Martinez, 
    169 F.3d at 1053
    ; Barnes, 
    83 F.3d at 940
    . Having
    assured the court that sentencing was not a factor (much
    less a decisive factor) in his decision to plead guilty, Bethel
    fails to make the requisite showing.
    No. 04-4108                                                15
    Bethel relies on Moore for the proposition that his plea
    colloquy did not remove the prejudice of his lawyer’s
    erroneous advice regarding sentencing. 
    348 F.3d 238
    . But
    Moore is distinguishable in several respects. Moore main-
    tained his innocence throughout the pre-trial process,
    unlike Bethel who confessed almost immediately. Moore,
    
    348 F.3d at 240
    . Moore changed his plea only reluctantly
    after his lawyer told him that he would face ten years if
    he pled guilty or twenty-two to twenty-seven years if
    convicted at trial. Moore, 
    348 F.3d at 242-43
    . In fact, Moore
    faced a sentence of twelve and half to fifteen years if he was
    convicted at trial. At his change of plea hearing, Moore
    indicated that he did not wish to proceed with the plea, then
    changed his mind and entered the plea. He then moved to
    withdraw the plea soon after entering it. Moore, 
    348 F.3d at 243
    . Bethel never indicated any ambivalence about his plea.
    But the determinative difference between Moore and Bethel
    is that nothing in Moore’s plea colloquy addressed whether
    his plea was based on any predictions as to his sentence.
    Moore, 
    348 F.3d at 243
    . Nothing at the plea alerted Moore
    to the possibility that he was misinformed as to the choice
    he faced. 
    Id.
     As we noted above, the district court told
    Bethel in six or seven different ways that his sentence could
    be more severe than he expected and greater than his
    attorney predicted. Bethel understood and agreed and pled
    guilty anyway, thereby enjoying a three-level reduction for
    acceptance of responsibility. Moore is therefore inapposite.
    Bethel finally argues that, had he known he was sub-
    ject to the career offender provision, he would have negoti-
    ated a different plea deal for himself than the one
    he accepted. But that is not the test. Under Hill and its
    progeny, a claim that a defendant would not have entered
    this particular plea agreement is not sufficient to show
    prejudice. Hill, 
    474 U.S. at 59
    ; Martinez, 
    169 F.3d at 1053
    ;
    Arvanitis, 
    902 F.2d at 489
    . To demonstrate prejudice, the
    defendant must show that he would not have pled guilty
    16                                               No. 04-4108
    and would have insisted on going to trial. Whether he could
    have negotiated a better plea deal is irrelevant to the issue
    of prejudice in the ineffective assistance context. It is
    unlikely Bethel would have insisted on going to trial in any
    case because, shortly after his arrest, he confessed to selling
    hundreds of pounds of marijuana. He never challenged the
    admissibility of that confession and, in combination with
    evidence of a controlled buy and the testimony of his co-
    defendants, his conviction was a virtual certainty. No doubt
    his lawyer would have advised him to plead guilty even if
    counsel had accurately predicted the application of the
    career offender provision. We doubt Bethel would have
    traded the three-level acceptance of responsibility reduction
    for the privilege of a trial with a virtually certain result.
    But we need not engage in that speculation because Bethel
    himself assured all concerned that he wished to plead guilty
    no matter what the sentencing consequences of that plea
    turned out to be. He was therefore not prejudiced by his
    lawyer’s advice.
    AFFIRMED.
    A true Copy:
    Teste:
    ________________________________
    Clerk of the United States Court of
    Appeals for the Seventh Circuit
    USCA-02-C-0072—8-17-06