Michael Miller v. Dushan Zatecky , 820 F.3d 275 ( 2016 )


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  •                                    In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    ____________________
    No. 15-1869
    MICHAEL MILLER,
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    v.
    DUSHAN ZATECKY, Superintendent, Pendleton Correctional
    Facility,
    Respondent-Appellee.
    ____________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court for the
    Southern District of Indiana, Indianapolis Division.
    No. 1:13-cv-913-SEB-TAB — Sarah Evans Barker, Judge.
    ____________________
    ARGUED APRIL 18, 2016 — DECIDED APRIL 26, 2016
    ____________________
    Before EASTERBROOK and SYKES, Circuit Judges, and
    ADELMAN, District Judge.*
    EASTERBROOK, Circuit Judge. Michael Miller was convicted
    in Indiana of three counts of child molestation and sentenced
    to three consecutive 40-year terms. The sexual abuse, includ-
    *   Of the Eastern District of Wisconsin, sitting by designation.
    2                                                   No. 15-1869
    ing anal intercourse, began when the victim was nine and
    continued for six years. When imposing the lengthy term (ef-
    fectively life in prison), the state judge relied not only on the
    nature of Miller’s conduct but also on his four prior convic-
    tions, his failure to reform after stretches of imprisonment,
    and the absence of any mitigating factors.
    The convictions were affirmed on direct appeal, see Mil-
    ler v. State, No. 34A02-0307-CR-563 (Ind. App. June 8, 2004).
    Miller then filed a collateral attack, contending that his ap-
    pellate lawyer furnished ineffective assistance by failing to
    contest the length of his sentence. (Miller made many other
    arguments, but all except the sentencing issue have been
    abandoned.) The state’s court of appeals eventually conclud-
    ed that appellate counsel should have raised this issue, but
    that its omission did not result in prejudice under the stand-
    ard of Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 694–96 (1984),
    and equivalent state decisions, which ask whether the peti-
    tioner has demonstrated a “reasonable probability” that the
    outcome of the direct appeal would have been different.
    The court observed that the substantive standard for ap-
    pellate review in Indiana is whether the sentence is “inap-
    propriate in light of the nature of the offense and the charac-
    ter of the offender.” Ind. App. R. 7(B). (Miller does not con-
    tend that his sentence violates the Cruel and Unusual Pun-
    ishments Clause or any other rule of federal law.) After re-
    viewing the evidence, the appellate court held “that Miller
    has not established that his 120-year aggregate sentence is
    inappropriate in light of the nature of the offense and the
    character of the offender.” Miller v. State, 2013 Ind. App. Un-
    pub. LEXIS 377 (Mar. 16, 2013) at *19.
    No. 15-1869                                                     3
    This means that, if Miller’s appellate lawyer had contest-
    ed the sentence, the argument would have failed on the mer-
    its. Because, in the state court’s view, the chance of success
    was zero, it necessarily followed that Miller had not shown a
    “reasonable probability” that a better appellate lawyer could
    have obtained a lower sentence for him. A federal district
    judge then denied Miller’s petition for a writ of habeas cor-
    pus under 
    28 U.S.C. §2254
    . Miller v. Zatecky, No. 1:13-cv-913-
    SEB-TAB (S.D. Ind. Mar. 26, 2015).
    Because Indiana addressed on the merits the question
    whether Miller has established prejudice, we must decide
    whether the state’s decision “was contrary to, or involved an
    unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law,
    as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States”.
    
    28 U.S.C. §2254
    (d)(1).
    Miller recognizes that Indiana’s judiciary articulated the
    legal standard the same way the Supreme Court does, so he
    contends that the state court’s decision was an “unreasona-
    ble application” of the governing standard. But, as far as we
    can see, the decision was not based on federal law at all, let
    alone federal law “clearly established” by the Supreme
    Court. It rests on a conclusion that, as a matter of state law, it
    would have been futile to contest the sentence’s length on
    appeal, because a 120-year sentence is not “inappropriate in
    light of the nature of the offense and the character of the of-
    fender.” A federal court cannot disagree with a state court’s
    resolution of an issue of state law. See, e.g., Bradshaw v. Rich-
    ey, 
    546 U.S. 74
     (2005); Estelle v. McGuire, 
    502 U.S. 62
     (1991).
    Shaw v. Wilson, 
    721 F.3d 908
    , 914–15 (7th Cir. 2013),
    shows that a defendant may use ineffective-assistance doc-
    trine to gain the benefit of state law when a lawyer’s error
    4                                                 No. 15-1869
    prevented the state judiciary from recognizing the force of a
    potential state-law defense (or other advantage secured by
    state law). Doing that does not use §2254 to override a state
    court’s conclusion that state law does not provide the peti-
    tioner with the benefit he sought. But that’s exactly what
    Miller needs. A lawyer’s blunder has not led Indiana’s judi-
    ciary to overlook the possibility that Miller may have been
    entitled to a lower sentence. Instead the state’s court of ap-
    peals addressed that subject directly and concluded that ap-
    pellate review of his sentence in 2004 would have done him
    no good—as a matter of state law. That’s the sort of decision
    §2254 leaves to the state judiciary.
    Miller maintains that the state court’s decision was “un-
    reasonable” because, when considering dispositions of simi-
    lar cases, the court of appeals did not discuss any opinion
    issued after June 8, 2004, the date Miller’s direct appeal was
    decided. Later decisions, according to Miller, look more fa-
    vorably on contentions that sentences in sex-offense cases
    are too long, and had the court of appeals used them as
    comparisons this would have demonstrated a “reasonable
    probability” of appellate success. But the court of appeals
    considered only decisions that were “available as precedent
    during Miller’s direct appeal” (Miller v. State at *17).
    Section 2254(d)(1) does not ask whether a decision was
    reasonable in the abstract. It asks whether the state court
    reasonably applied rules clearly established by the Supreme
    Court of the United States. Miller does not point to any deci-
    sion by that Court clearly establishing that a state must give
    a petitioner the benefit of state-law precedent that comes af-
    ter his conviction’s finality. That would amount to saying, as
    a matter of federal law, that all state-law decisions must ap-
    No. 15-1869                                                   5
    ply retroactively. That isn’t how federal courts apply their
    own decisions. See Welch v. United States, No. 15–6418 (U.S.
    Apr. 18, 2016) (explaining federal retroactivity doctrine). The
    Supreme Court has never questioned the states’ ability to
    choose whether to apply their own case law retroactively.
    State courts must apply federal decisions retroactively when
    federal doctrine so requires (if they entertain collateral at-
    tacks at all), see Montgomery v. Louisiana, 
    136 S. Ct. 718
    , 727–
    32 (2016), but they are free to decide when their own doctri-
    nal changes apply to cases that have become final.
    And why should a state be required, as a matter of either
    state or federal law, to give Miller the benefit of decisions
    released after the conclusion of his direct appeal? Miller does
    not question the state judiciary’s conclusion that, if his law-
    yer had contested the length of his sentence in 2004, he
    would have lost. The goal of ineffective-assistance doctrine
    is to give criminal defendants the benefit of the counsel to
    which the Sixth Amendment says they are entitled. We
    know from Indiana’s decision that, even if appellate counsel
    had done exactly what Miller says counsel should have
    done, this would not have helped him. It would be weird to
    say that a defendant is better off having a lawyer who omits
    a losing issue than if that lawyer had performed exactly as a
    zealous and capable counsel should.
    Nonetheless, Miller insists that Lockhart v. Fretwell, 
    506 U.S. 364
     (1993), entitles him to the benefit of hindsight. That
    isn’t what Lockhart holds. It did not concern §2254(d)(1)—not
    only because it predates by three years the Antiterrorism
    and Effective Death Penalty Act, which rewrote §2254 and
    insulated many state decisions that might have led to relief
    in earlier years, see Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. 170
    , 180–90
    6                                                    No. 15-1869
    (2011), but also because Lockhart does not deal with an as-
    serted change of state law. It does not make defendants with
    poor lawyers better off than defendants with good ones.
    Fretwell was convicted of a capital crime in Arkansas and
    sentenced to death. The jury instructions permitted the ju-
    rors to consider, as an aggravating factor, that the crime had
    been committed for pecuniary gain. A few months before
    Fretwell’s sentencing, a panel of the Eighth Circuit had held
    that the Eighth Amendment forbids a state to use as an ag-
    gravating factor any element of the substantive crime. Collins
    v. Lockhart, 
    754 F.2d 258
     (8th Cir. 1985). Fretwell’s lawyer did
    not ask the Arkansas judge to apply Collins. By the time
    Fretwell filed a collateral attack in federal court, Collins had
    been overruled as inconsistent with Lowenfield v. Phelps, 
    484 U.S. 231
     (1988). See Perry v. Lockhart, 
    871 F.2d 1384
     (8th Cir.
    1989). Another panel of the Eighth Circuit held that Fretwell
    was entitled to the benefit of the holding in Collins, even
    though that decision was wrong, but the Supreme Court re-
    versed. It held that the Sixth Amendment does not entitle
    litigants to gain from judicial errors.
    Miller concludes from this that anyone who advances an
    ineffective-assistance claim is entitled to the benefit of hind-
    sight. Yet that was not the Court’s point. The case stands for
    the proposition that a person seeking federal collateral re-
    view must show that the state court committed an error of
    federal law—not that it took a step mistakenly (and tempo-
    rarily) thought to be an error, but that the state judiciary real-
    ly was in error. Given Lowenfield and Perry, the instructions at
    Fretwell’s sentencing trial were constitutionally valid; he
    had no legitimate beef about them, and at any new sentenc-
    No. 15-1869                                                   7
    ing hearing the instructions would have been repeated ver-
    batim.
    Later decisions have emphasized that Lockhart does not
    redefine Strickland’s “prejudice” component. See, e.g., Lafler
    v. Cooper, 
    132 S. Ct. 1376
    , 1386–87 (2012); Glover v. United
    States, 
    531 U.S. 198
    , 202–04 (2001). Indeed, the Court has un-
    derstood Lockhart as an anti-hindsight decision, warning
    against the “natural tendency to speculate as to whether a
    different … strategy might have been more successful.”
    Maryland v. Kulbicki, 
    136 S. Ct. 2
    , 4 (2015), quoting from Lock-
    hart, 
    506 U.S. at 372
    .
    Miller observes that our opinion in Shaw remarks in pass-
    ing that “hindsight is permissible.” 721 F.3d at 918. That’s so
    in the sense that, under Lockhart, federal law must favor the
    petitioner when the collateral attack is resolved, as well as
    when the state’s decision became final. Nothing in Lockhart
    justifies any general resort to hindsight. Immediately after
    the langue we have quoted, our opinion in Shaw cites 
    506 U.S. at 372
    , where Lockhart condemns resort to hindsight to
    disparage the performance of counsel. And we cannot forget
    that Strickland asks whether there is a reasonable probability
    that “but for counsel's unprofessional errors, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different.” 
    466 U.S. at 694
    . That
    has the same temporal focus as the state’s court of appeals in
    Miller’s case, asking whether a better performance by coun-
    sel could have affected the outcome then and there.
    If Shaw meant more by its remark, it still cannot control
    the outcome in a proceeding under §2254(d)(1). That statute
    limits the federal courts’ role to applying law clearly estab-
    lished by the Supreme Court of the United States. The Justic-
    es insist that district and circuit judges disregard their own
    8                                                     No. 15-1869
    decisions. See, e.g., Lopez v. Smith, 
    135 S. Ct. 1
    , 4 (2014) (“Cir-
    cuit precedent cannot ‘refine or sharpen a general principle
    of Supreme Court jurisprudence into a specific legal rule that
    this Court has not announced.’”); Marshall v. Rodgers, 
    133 S. Ct. 1446
    , 1450 (2013). Lockhart itself does not “clearly estab-
    lish” that state courts must consider state-law decisions that
    postdate counsel’s deficient performance; it has nothing to
    say about how state courts determine the temporal scope of
    their own decisions. And Kulbicki holds federal law does not
    require the use of hindsight in ineffective-assistance cases.
    Miller has not shown that the state judiciary made an er-
    ror of federal law, so he is not entitled to collateral relief.
    AFFIRMED
    No. 15-1869                                                               9
    ADELMAN, District Judge, dissenting. Because appellate
    counsel provided ineffective assistance by failing to chal-
    lenge Michael Miller’s 120-year prison sentence, I would
    conditionally grant the writ. The majority concludes that
    Miller fails to show that the state judiciary made any error of
    federal law in rejecting this claim. For the reasons that fol-
    low, I respectfully dissent.
    I.
    A jury convicted Miller of three counts of child molesta-
    tion, and the trial court sentenced him to 40 years in prison
    on each count running consecutively for a total of 120 years.1
    1 The majority notes that the sexual abuse, including anal intercourse,
    began when the victim was nine and continued for six years, and that the
    state court in imposing an effective life term considered not only the na-
    ture of Miller’s conduct but also his four prior convictions, his failure to
    reform after stretches of imprisonment, and the absence of mitigating
    factors. While it isn’t necessary to address the facts at length, I do note
    that the victim in this case came forward years after the alleged abuse,
    first disclosing it during a psychiatric hospitalization. During Miller’s
    trial, the victim testified that he was drunk and high on marijuana dur-
    ing the alleged assaults. He did not know how old he was when the as-
    saults occurred (although he did know he was under the age of 14, an
    element of the charges). He was not sure of the dates of, or the addresses
    where, the assaults took place. The “only thing that [he was] a hundred
    percent sure of is that man [Miller] had sex with [him].” At the sentenc-
    ing hearing, Miller presented testimony from numerous witnesses as to
    his good character. Several of the witnesses had children of their own;
    none expressed concern about Miller acting inappropriately. One wit-
    ness indicated that Miller had taken her 15-year-old son under his wing,
    turning his life around. “I can’t thank Mike enough for what he’s done
    for my son.” The victim, apparently incarcerated at the time of Miller’s
    sentencing, did not appear to make a statement. Finally, while Miller had
    prior felony convictions, they were for drug offenses, not sexual miscon-
    duct.
    10                                                 No. 15-1869
    On direct appeal, Miller’s counsel raised two nigh frivolous
    challenges—to the sufficiency of the evidence and the ad-
    mission of other-acts evidence; he also noted a clerical error
    in the written judgment, which did not affect the length of
    Miller’s sentence. Counsel failed to raise a challenge to Mil-
    ler’s virtual life sentence, despite the fact that Miller asked
    him to and counsel in a letter to Miller said “it probably will
    be” one of the issues he raised. The Indiana court of appeals
    remanded for correction of the clerical error but quickly re-
    jected the evidentiary challenges.
    Miller then petitioned for post-conviction relief in state
    court, arguing, inter alia, that his appellate counsel provided
    ineffective assistance. The state trial court held a hearing, at
    which appellate counsel testified he did not have any inde-
    pendent recollection of or knowledge why he did not raise
    the sentencing issue on direct appeal. The trial court denied
    relief, and the Indiana court of appeals affirmed.
    The state court of appeals found that counsel should
    have raised the sentencing issue on direct appeal and thus
    considered whether there was a reasonable probability that
    the outcome of the appeal would have been different had he
    done so. In analyzing this issue, the court distinguished two
    cases “available as precedent during Miller’s direct appeal,”
    opining that Miller’s case was more aggravated. The court
    noted that Miller acted as a father figure to the victim and
    found the nature of the offense particularly contemptible be-
    cause Miller had significant time to reflect upon the heinous
    nature of his actions between the dates on which the crimes
    occurred. The court also found that Miller’s prior criminal
    history, which included three Class D felony drug convic-
    tions and a Class A misdemeanor conviction, and the fact
    No. 15-1869                                                               11
    that he molested the victim over a six-year time span
    demonstrated his inability to lead a law abiding life and his
    depraved character. The court concluded:
    that Miller has not established that his 120-year aggregate sen-
    tence is inappropriate in light of the nature of the offense and the
    character of the offender. Consequently, Miller cannot establish
    that there is a reasonable probability that his sentence would
    have been revised pursuant to Appellate Rule 7(B) if appellate
    counsel had raised the issue on direct appeal. We therefore af-
    firm the trial court’s finding that Miller’s appellate counsel was
    not ineffective.
    Miller v. State, 
    2013 Ind. App. Unpub. LEXIS 377
    , at *19–20
    (Ind. Ct. App. Mar. 26, 2013) (internal citations omitted).
    Miller then sought habeas relief in federal court. The dis-
    trict court denied his petition, but we granted a certificate of
    appealability on the issue of whether appellate counsel pro-
    vided ineffective assistance and sua sponte appointed coun-
    sel to represent Miller on this appeal.
    II.
    Because his case is governed by the Antiterrorism and Ef-
    fective Death Penalty Act (“AEDPA”), in order to obtain re-
    lief Miller must show that the decision of the last state court
    to address his claim on the merits was contrary to, or in-
    volved an unreasonable application of, clearly established
    Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court of the
    United States. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d). The standard is a de-
    manding one, but I believe that Miller satisfies it.
    In order to establish a claim of ineffective assistance, a
    defendant generally must show (1) that counsel’s perfor-
    mance was deficient, and (2) that the deficient performance
    prejudiced the defense. Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    ,
    12                                                               No. 15-1869
    687 (1984). The present case involves the performance of
    counsel on direct appeal. An appellate lawyer performs defi-
    ciently if he abandons a non-frivolous claim that was both
    obvious and clearly stronger than the claims he actually pre-
    sented. Shaw v. Wilson, 
    721 F.3d 908
    , 915 (7th Cir. 2013). The
    court evaluates performance from the perspective of a rea-
    sonable attorney at the time of the appeal, avoiding the dis-
    torting effects of hindsight. 
    Id.
    To determine prejudice in this context, the court asks
    whether there is a reasonable probability that, but for coun-
    sel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the direct appeal
    would have been different. 
    Id. at 918
    . As this court stated in
    a similar case involving appellate counsel’s failure to raise
    an issue of Indiana law on direct appeal:
    In assessing prejudice, we must bear in mind once again that we
    are making a comparative inquiry about counsel’s choices; we
    are not resolving any issue of state law, and we are not telling
    the Indiana judiciary how it should approach this issue. Preju-
    dice exists, however, if counsel bypassed [a] nonfrivolous argu-
    ment that, if successful, would have resulted in the vacation of
    [the petitioner’s] conviction. … And when evaluating prejudice,
    unlike when evaluating attorney performance, hindsight is per-
    missible. Lockhart v. Fretwell, 
    506 U.S. 364
    , 372 (1993); Hemstreet v.
    Greiner, 
    491 F.3d 84
    , 91 (2d Cir. 2007); Eddmonds v. Peters, 
    93 F.3d 1307
    , 1326 n.5 (7th Cir. 1996). This means that the Indiana Su-
    preme Court’s [later decisions are] relevant to whether the ar-
    gument [counsel] jettisoned was both nonfrivolous and stronger
    than the sufficiency argument he presented.
    
    Id.
    There can be little doubt that counsel performed defi-
    ciently by failing to raise the sentencing issue on Miller’s di-
    rect appeal. The evidentiary challenges counsel raised were
    all but doomed to fail, given the standards of review Indiana
    No. 15-1869                                                               13
    appellate courts apply, and the clerical correction did Miller
    no good.
    On the other hand, Indiana appellate courts are author-
    ized to independently “review and revise” sentences. Ind.
    Const. Art. 7, § 4; Pierce v. State, 
    949 N.E.2d 349
    , 352 (Ind.
    2011). This authority is implemented through Indiana Ap-
    pellate Rule 7(B), which provides that the appellate court
    may revise a sentence if after due consideration of the trial
    court’s decision the appellate court finds the sentence is in-
    appropriate in light of the nature of the offense and the char-
    acter of the offender. Pierce, 949 N.E.2d at 352. As Miller
    shows in his brief, Indiana appellate courts have not hesitat-
    ed to use this authority; he cites no less than 11 cases in
    which Indiana appellate courts shortened sentences in simi-
    lar cases.2
    2Pierce v. State, 
    949 N.E.2d 349
     (Ind. 2011) (revising 124 year sentence
    on four counts of child molestation to 80 years); Sanchez v. State, 
    938 N.E.2d 720
     (Ind. 2010) (revising total sentence of 80 years on three counts
    of child molestation to 40 years); Harris v. State, 
    897 N.E.2d 927
     (Ind.
    2008) (revising consecutive sentences of 50 years on two counts of child
    molesting to concurrent); Smith v. State, 
    889 N.E.2d 261
     (Ind. 2008) (revis-
    ing four consecutive sentences of 30 years each, a total of 120 years, to a
    total of 60 years); Monroe v. State, 
    886 N.E.2d 578
     (Ind. 2008) (reducing
    sentence of 100 years to 50 years); Estes v. State, 
    827 N.E.2d 27
     (Ind. 2005)
    (revising sentence of 267 years on 14 counts of child molesting and sexu-
    al misconduct with a minor to 120 years); Serino v. State, 
    798 N.E.2d 852
    (Ind. 2003) (revising sentence of 385 years on 26 counts of child molesta-
    tion to 90 years); Kien v. State, 
    782 N.E.2d 398
     (Ind. Ct. App. 2003) (revis-
    ing consecutive sentences of 40 years on three counts, a total of 120 years,
    to 80 years total); Ortiz v. State, 
    766 N.E.2d 370
     (Ind. 2002) (revising 30
    year consecutive sentences on child molesting counts to run concurrent-
    ly); Haycraft v. State, 
    760 N.E.2d 203
     (Ind. Ct. App. 2001) (revising 190
    year sentence for child molesting and related offenses to 150 years);
    14                                                           No. 15-1869
    The Indiana court of appeals found deficient perfor-
    mance in this case. The warden does not argue otherwise in
    this court. The issue is thus whether the state court’s preju-
    dice finding was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
    application of, federal law as determined by the Supreme
    Court.
    The Indiana court correctly set forth the standards for
    evaluating ineffective assistance of appellate counsel claims.
    The court cited state rather than federal decisions, but there
    is nothing wrong with that (so long as the state cases do not
    contradict federal law as set forth by the Supreme Court).
    See, e.g., Early v. Packer, 
    537 U.S. 3
    , 8 (2002).
    As Miller notes, however, the state court limited its anal-
    ysis to cases pre-dating Miller’s direct appeal, ignoring later
    cases cited by the parties in which Indiana appellate courts
    revised sentences in similar cases. Miller argues that this is
    “contrary to” the holding of Lockhart v. Fretwell that, while
    Walker v. State, 
    747 N.E.2d 536
     (Ind. 2001) (revising consecutive sentences
    of 40 years on two counts of child molesting to be concurrent). As dis-
    cussed below, one of the issues in this case is whether the Indiana court
    of appeals erred by failing to consider cases post-dating Miller’s direct
    appeal. Five of the cases cited above pre-date the decision on Miller’s
    direct appeal; six post-date the direct appeal. It is also important to note
    that in January 2003 the Indiana supreme court modified the standard
    for revising a sentence; formerly, appellate courts could revise a sentence
    only if it was “manifestly unreasonable.” Serino, 798 N.E2d at 856. Find-
    ing this barrier to review too high, the court modified the rule to allow
    revision “if, after due consideration of the trial court’s decision, the
    Court finds that the sentence is inappropriate in light of the nature of the
    offense and the character of the offender.” 
    Id.
     (quoting Ind. Appellate
    Rule 7(B)). This more lenient standard applied at the time of Miller’s di-
    rect appeal, but there were a limited number of cases applying it at that
    time.
    No. 15-1869                                                               15
    the performance prong is evaluated without the benefit of
    hindsight, prejudice is measured based on the law as it exists
    at the time the court adjudicates the ineffective assistance
    claim. See 
    506 U.S. at 372
    ; see also Shaw, 721 F.3d at 918
    (“[W]hen evaluating prejudice, unlike when evaluating at-
    torney performance, hindsight is permissible.”).
    While the state court discussed only cases available at the
    time of Miller’s direct appeal, it did not explicitly state that
    later cases were irrelevant as a matter of law; as indicated,
    the court set forth the correct standards earlier in its deci-
    sion. We will not grant a writ simply because the state court
    failed to cite all of the pertinent cases.3
    3 The warden argues that Lockhart v. Fretwell has no applicability here
    because that case is limited to situations in which the defendant would
    receive a windfall if the court did not consider subsequent legal devel-
    opments. In Lockhart, counsel failed to raise an objection supported by
    case-law at the time of sentencing; however, by the time the defendant
    sought habeas relief, the favorable case-law had been overruled. Under
    these circumstances, the Supreme Court refused to focus “on mere out-
    come determination, without attention to whether the result of the pro-
    ceeding was fundamentally unfair or unreliable.” 
    506 U.S. at 369
    . Lock-
    hart did not supplant the general prejudice rule set forth in Strickland,
    e.g., a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional er-
    rors, the result of the proceeding would have been different. Williams v.
    Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 391–93 (2000). Lockhart’s rule that the court also con-
    sider unfairness only comes into play in the unusual circumstance where
    the defendant attempts to demonstrate prejudice based on considera-
    tions that, as a matter of law, ought not inform the inquiry, 
    id.
     at 393
    n.18, such as later rejected case-law, Shaw, 721 F.3d at 919. The warden
    contends that the present case does not involve a change in the law.
    However, after Lockhart, courts have held that prejudice is determined
    with the benefit of hindsight in all cases, whether focused on the out-
    come or unfairness. See, e.g., Lynch v. Dolce, 
    789 F.3d 303
    , 311 (2d Cir.
    16                                                            No. 15-1869
    However, I would hold that the Indiana court of appeals
    did unreasonably apply federal law. As indicated above, the
    court stated:
    that Miller has not established that his 120-year aggregate sen-
    tence is inappropriate in light of the nature of the offense and the
    character of the offender. Consequently, Miller cannot establish
    that there is a reasonable probability that his sentence would
    have been revised pursuant to Appellate Rule 7(B) if appellate
    counsel had raised the issue on direct appeal.
    The conclusion in the second sentence does not necessari-
    ly follow from the premise in the first sentence. A court con-
    sidering an ineffective assistance claim need not definitively
    resolve in the defendant’s favor the merits of the arguments
    counsel omitted, “for under Strickland [the defendant] need
    show only a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s un-
    professional errors, the result of the proceeding would have
    been different.” United States v. Weathers, 
    493 F.3d 229
    , 238
    (D.C. Cir. 2007) (internal quote marks omitted, emphasis in
    original); see also Shaw, 721 F.3d at 918 (rejecting the re-
    spondent’s argument that the petitioner’s claim would have
    failed under state law because his “theory does not turn on
    the ultimate outcome in the state courts; it depends only on
    the relative strength of this argument over the one counsel
    chose”).
    Given the numerous cases in which Indiana appellate
    courts revised similar sentences, there is at least a reasonable
    chance Miller may have obtained such relief on direct ap-
    peal. That this panel of the Indiana court of appeals found
    the sentence appropriate on post-conviction review does not
    2015); Eddmonds, 
    93 F.3d at
    1326 n.5. The warden cites no authority to the
    contrary. Thus, this aspect of Lockhart applies in the present case.
    No. 15-1869                                                            17
    foreclose the possibility that the Indiana supreme court (or
    the different panel of the court of appeals that heard Miller’s
    direct appeal)4 would have exercised independent authority
    differently.5 Indeed, had counsel raised the sentencing issue
    on direct appeal, there is every reason to believe that Miller’s
    case would have been on the list set forth in note 2, above.
    As Miller shows in his brief, the state supreme court has
    on multiple occasions reduced sentences in cases arguably
    more aggravated than his. In Serino v. State, for instance, a
    jury found the defendant guilty of 26 counts of child molest-
    ing and sexual misconduct with a minor.6 The defendant in
    that case became a father figure to the victim, his girlfriend’s
    son, but then repeatedly sexually abused the boy over a
    three year period, beginning when the victim was 11, includ-
    ing fondling, oral sex, and anal sex. 798 N.E.2d at 853. In im-
    posing a 385-year sentence, the trial court noted that Serino
    was in a position of trust with the victim and exploited that
    trust, that Serino was not charged with all crimes committed
    against the child, and that Serino had other pending charges
    4The Indiana court of appeals has 15 members. The court’s three-
    judge panels sit together for terms of four months, after which the judges
    rotate. http://www.in.gov/judiciary/appeals/2347.htm (last visited Apr.
    21, 2016). None of the judges who heard Miller’s direct appeal served on
    the panel that decided his post-conviction appeal.
    5It is important to note that appellate review under Rule 7(B) in-
    volves “an exercise of judgment that is unlike the usual appellate pro-
    cess, and is very similar to the trial court’s [exercise of discretion].”
    Cardwell v. State, 
    895 N.E.2d 1219
    , 1223 (Ind. 2008). The Indiana supreme
    court has described Rule 7(B) as “a standard leaving much to the uncon-
    strained judgment of the appellate court.” 
    Id. at 1224
    .
    6Serino was decided on November 19, 2003, nearly seven months be-
    fore the court of appeals decided Miller’s direct appeal.
    18                                                 No. 15-1869
    for sex crimes against another child, in concluding that a
    lesser sentence would depreciate the seriousness of the
    crimes. 
    Id. at 857
    . Based primarily on the testimony from
    numerous witnesses attesting to Serino’s positive character
    traits, the supreme court reduced the sentence to 90 years. 
    Id. at 858
    .
    Miller also occupied a position of trust with the victim,
    and his crimes also occurred over a several year period.
    However, Miller was convicted of just three counts, he had
    no other charges pending, and the record discloses no un-
    charged conduct related to the same victim. As discussed in
    note 1, supra, Miller also produced numerous positive char-
    acter witnesses at his sentencing. Yet he is serving a sentence
    30 years longer than Serino.
    In Smith v. State, a jury convicted the defendant of four
    counts of child molesting, based on his step-daughter’s re-
    port that he had sexual intercourse with her when she was
    10 years old and on three other occasions before she turned
    14. 889 N.E.2d at 262. The trial court imposed four consecu-
    tive sentences of 30 years, 120 years total, based on Smith’s
    extensive criminal history, including two sex offenses; the
    extended period of time over which Smith molested the vic-
    tim; the heinous violation of trust represented by Smith’s
    abuse of his step-daughter; and the additional psychological
    abuse he inflicted on the girl. Id. at 263-64. Despite these ag-
    gravated circumstances, the Indiana supreme court reduced
    the sentence to a total of 60 years. Id. at 264. Miller sits in
    prison for twice as long, despite the absence of prior sex of-
    fenses on his record or any evidence of additional psycho-
    logical abuse of the victim.
    No. 15-1869                                                              19
    And in Sanchez v. State, the defendant sexually abused his
    step-daughters, ages six and nine, resulting in three child
    molestation convictions. 938 N.E.2d at 721. The trial court
    imposed concurrent sentences of 40 years for the two counts
    pertaining to the first child, and a consecutive sentence of 40
    years for the count pertaining to the second child. Id. The
    state supreme court, noting that Sanchez did not use signifi-
    cant force on the girls or cause injury, and that he lacked an
    extensive prior record, made the sentences concurrent, re-
    ducing the total term to 40 years. Id. at 723. Miller was con-
    victed of three counts involving the same victim, who testi-
    fied that Miller never threatened him or inflicted any injury
    (other than temporary pain from the intercourse). Yet Mil-
    ler’s sentence is three times as long as Sanchez’s.7
    Finally, while perhaps not an independent basis for
    granting relief, the Indiana court’s rejection of Miller’s sen-
    tencing claim is weakened by its failure to consider post-
    2004 cases. As discussed above, in January 2003 the Indiana
    supreme court made it easier for appellate courts to revise
    sentences.8 It thus stands to reason that there would be more
    case-law favorable to Miller’s position after 2003 than before.
    The warden argues that, because the text of the rule did not
    7I do not cite these cases to show that the Indiana court of appeals er-
    roneously exercised its discretion under Appellate Rule 7(B) in Miller’s
    case. The only issue we need to decide is whether Miller has shown a
    reasonable probability, a better than negligible chance, see Harris v.
    Thompson, 
    698 F.3d 609
    , 644 (7th Cir. 2012), of a different outcome. Be-
    cause the Indiana supreme court has reduced sentences in cases arguably
    more aggravated than Miller’s, I find that Miller has made the required
    showing.
    The Indiana court of appeals acknowledged the changed standard,
    8
    and that it applied to Miller’s sentence.
    20                                                No. 15-1869
    change, the court’s analysis was the same in 2013 as it would
    have been in 2004. But given the vagueness of the rule surely
    the Indiana supreme court’s application of it in similar cases
    is important. Those cases offer insight into what might have
    happened had counsel challenged Miller’s sentence on direct
    appeal. It is true, as the warden notes, that the Indiana court
    of appeals used the present tense—“Miller has not estab-
    lished that his 120-year aggregate sentence is inappropriate.”
    Miller, 
    2013 Ind. App. Unpub. LEXIS 377
    , at *19 (emphasis
    added.) But this shows only that this panel found the sen-
    tence appropriate; it does not show that another panel of the
    court or the Indiana supreme court would not have revised
    Miller’s sentence on direct appeal. Nor does the tense the
    court used change the fact that it ignored post-2003 case-law.
    III.
    The majority says that the state court’s decision was not
    based on federal law at all; rather, it rests on the conclusion
    that, as a matter of state law, an appeal challenging the sen-
    tence would have been futile. A federal court cannot disa-
    gree with a state court’s resolution of an issue of state law.
    We addressed a similar issue in Shaw, a case which also
    involved counsel’s failure to raise an issue of Indiana state
    law on direct appeal. In Shaw, the state amended the infor-
    mation after the deadline set by the then-applicable proce-
    dural rule (Section 35-34-1-5). 721 F.3d at 911. Although no
    Indiana appellate court ever had invalidated an amendment
    under that rule, the Indiana supreme court had stated that
    tardy amendments, if substantive in nature, were impermis-
    sible. Id. at 912 (citing Haak v. Indiana, 
    695 N.E.2d 944
    , 951
    (Ind. 1998)). Trial counsel challenged the amendment, but
    appellate counsel failed to renew the challenge on direct ap-
    No. 15-1869                                                             21
    peal, instead raising a near frivolous challenge to the suffi-
    ciency of the evidence. 
    Id.
     Four years after Shaw lost his di-
    rect appeal, the Indiana supreme court reversed a conviction
    based on an untimely substantive amendment, confirming
    what it had said in Haak. 
    Id.
     (citing Fajardo v. Indiana, 
    859 N.E.2d 1201
     (Ind. 2007)).9 Shaw then sought post-conviction
    relief, arguing that his appellate lawyer provided ineffective
    assistance by not raising the amendment issue. The Indiana
    court of appeals denied relief, noting that while some deci-
    sions of the state supreme court included dicta supporting
    Shaw, prior to Fajardo no amendment had actually been in-
    validated under the rule. Given the state of the law, the court
    found that counsel’s performance was not deficient. 
    Id. at 913
    . The court also found no prejudice because Shaw had
    been granted a continuance to prepare for trial. 
    Id.
    When Shaw sought habeas relief, the state argued that
    the federal courts were entirely prohibited from evaluating
    the Indiana court of appeals’ assessment of Shaw’s claim be-
    cause the claim involved a question of state law. 
    Id. at 914
    .
    We rejected that contention:
    The state’s argument, however, misses the point that Shaw is
    making. Shaw is not asking (and has no reason to ask) that we
    second-guess an Indiana court on the meaning of Section 35-34-
    1-5. Shaw is making a simpler point: a competent lawyer in Indi-
    ana should have recognized that there was a state statute under
    which relief for his client was possible and would have pursued
    that theory on appeal. An argument about the validity of the
    state’s effort to amend the indictment would have been material-
    ly stronger than the frivolous sufficiency-of-the-evidence point
    that [counsel] raised. With that much accepted, there is no fur-
    9  The Indiana legislature later changed the rule in response to Fajar-
    do. 
    Id.
     at 912–13.
    22                                                           No. 15-1869
    ther role for the federal judiciary: whether the Indiana appellate
    court would have been persuaded, or if not, whether the Indiana
    Supreme Court would have granted transfer, is immaterial. The
    state’s argument that even this kind of comparative assessment
    is out of bounds, if accepted, would foreclose federal review of
    almost any ineffectiveness claim that rests on an attorney's mis-
    handling of a state-law issue, no matter how egregiously defi-
    cient the attorney’s performance. It is well established that a de-
    fense attorney’s failure to raise a state-law issue can constitute
    ineffectiveness.
    
    Id.
     at 914–15.
    The majority indicates that Shaw permits an ineffective
    assistance claim where counsel’s error prevented the state
    judiciary from recognizing the force of a potential state law
    argument. Here, according to the majority, appellate coun-
    sel’s mistake did not prevent the Indiana judiciary from
    looking at Miller’s sentence; the Indiana court of appeals did
    so on post-conviction review, concluding that a possible re-
    view of the sentence in 2004 would have done him no
    good—as a matter of state law. For two reasons, this misses
    the mark.
    First, because habeas petitioners must exhaust their state
    court remedies before turning to the federal courts, it will
    often be the case that the state post-conviction court ad-
    dresses the merits of the argument counsel omitted. Indeed,
    the Indiana court of appeals did so in Shaw. 721 F.3d at 913.10
    We granted habeas relief, despite the fact that the omitted
    claim may have failed as a matter of state law; we declined
    Specifically, the Indiana court of appeals noted the absence of au-
    10
    thority supporting a challenge to the amendment at the time of the direct
    appeal. Because state law did not support the claim at the time, the court
    found that counsel’s performance was not deficient. Id.
    No. 15-1869                                                              23
    to be drawn into the content of state law, noting that “it is
    necessary only to conclude that the amendment issue was
    clearly stronger than the sufficiency argument. Id. at 916. We
    said the same thing assessing prejudice:
    [W]e are making a comparative inquiry about counsel’s choices;
    we are not resolving any issue of state law, and we are not tell-
    ing the Indiana judiciary how it should approach this issue.
    Prejudice exists, however, if counsel bypassed an nonfrivolous
    argument that, if successful, would have resulted in the vacation
    of Shaw’s conviction (just as the conviction in Fajardo later was).
    Id. at 918.
    Second, the majority makes the same mistake as the Indi-
    ana court of appeals, equating one panel’s discretionary re-
    jection of Miller’s sentencing claim (based solely on pre-2004
    case-law), with a finding that there is no reasonable proba-
    bility that the state supreme court or another panel of the
    court of appeals would have modified the sentence on direct
    appeal. As indicated above, review under Rule 7(B) involves
    “an exercise of judgment that is unlike the usual appellate
    process.” Cardwell, 895 N.E.2d at 1223. The Indiana supreme
    court has explained that:
    whether we regard a sentence as appropriate at the end of the
    day turns on our sense of the culpability of the defendant, the
    severity of the crime, the damage done to others, and myriad
    other factors that come to light in a given case. Individual judg-
    ments as to the proper balance to be struck among these consid-
    erations will necessarily vary from person to person, and judges,
    whether they sit on trial or appellate benches, are no exception.
    There is thus no right answer as to the proper sentence in any
    given case. As a result, the role of an appellate court in review-
    ing a sentence is unlike its role in reviewing an appeal for legal
    error or sufficiency of evidence.
    24                                                        No. 15-1869
    Id. at 1224. Because there is no “right” or “wrong” answer
    under Appellate Rule 7(B), it is incorrect to say, as the major-
    ity does, that the Indiana court of appeals definitively re-
    solved the issue as a matter of state law in finding the sen-
    tence appropriate. See id. at 1225 (explaining that the goal of
    appellate review is “not to achieve a perceived ‘correct’ re-
    sult in each case”).11
    The majority notes that Miller cites no Supreme Court
    decision holding that a state must give a petitioner the bene-
    fit of state law precedent that comes after his conviction be-
    came final. This, too, misses the mark. I agree that, while it
    would have been permissible for the Indiana court of appeals
    to cite post-2004 cases, no rule of federal law required it to do
    so. But Miller’s point is that those cases are available to us in
    evaluating the state court’s prejudice determination. Consid-
    ering later cases does not, as the majority suggests, effective-
    ly require that all state law decisions apply retroactively. The
    operative rule in Indiana was the same in 2004 as in 2013;
    Miller does not seek benefit of a new, more lenient standard,
    he simply directs our attention to cases applying the rule
    which support his position that there is a reasonable proba-
    bility his sentence would have been modified had his lawyer
    raised the issue.
    The majority contends that Lockhart does not entitle Mil-
    ler to the benefit of hindsight. While it is true that Lockhart, a
    pre-AEDPA case, applied case-law post-dating the petition-
    er’s direct appeal to deny habeas relief, we have not under-
    It would be different if Miller had argued, say, that Indiana law
    11
    prohibited consecutive sentences in cases like his, and the court of ap-
    peals rejected that contention under state law
    No. 15-1869                                                   25
    stood the case to be limited to those circumstances. See Shaw,
    721 F.3d at 918. In Shaw, for instance, we considered the In-
    diana supreme court’s post-direct-appeal decision in Fajardo
    in evaluating prejudice. Id. The majority correctly notes that
    Lockhart did not change Strickland’s prejudice component, see
    note 3, supra, but the Supreme Court’s later decisions do not,
    as the majority suggests, understand Lockhart as an anti-
    hindsight decision. Maryland v. Kulbicki, 
    136 S. Ct. 2
    , 4 (2015),
    cited by the majority, quoted Lockhart in assessing perfor-
    mance, not prejudice. The Court explicitly declined to ad-
    dress prejudice in that case. 
    Id. at 5
    .
    IV.
    For these reasons, I would vacate the district court’s deci-
    sion and remand with instructions to grant the writ unless
    Indiana affords Miller a new appeal.