Michael Gilbreath v. Dan Winkleski ( 2021 )


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  •                                In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    No. 20-2638
    MICHAEL GILBREATH,
    Petitioner-Appellee,
    v.
    DAN WINKLESKI, Warden,
    Respondent-Appellant.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Western District of Wisconsin.
    No. 3:19-cv-00728-jdp — James D. Peterson, Chief Judge.
    ARGUED APRIL 15, 2021 — DECIDED DECEMBER 30, 2021
    Before KANNE, ROVNER, and HAMILTON, Circuit Judges.
    ROVNER, Circuit Judge. Michael Gilbreath was convicted by
    a Wisconsin jury of first degree sexual assault of a child for
    repeatedly molesting his step-granddaughter, S.L., beginning
    in approximately 2002 or 2003 when she was nine years old,
    and ending in 2006 when she was twelve. The district court
    2                                                             No. 20-2638
    granted his petition for a writ of habeas corpus on the basis of
    ineffective assistance of counsel. We reverse.
    I.
    We presume that the factual findings of the state court are
    correct for the purposes of habeas review unless the petitioner
    rebuts the presumption of correctness by clear and convincing
    evidence. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (e)(1). Gilbreath has not provided
    clear and convincing evidence rebutting the state court
    findings and so we defer to the state court’s version of events.
    Goodloe v. Brannon, 
    4 F.4th 445
    , 447 (7th Cir. 2021); Weaver v.
    Nicholson, 
    892 F.3d 878
    , 886 (7th Cir. 2018). We will supplement
    the state court’s recitation of the facts with undisputed facts
    that provide background.
    A.
    From infancy, S.L. was raised by her grandmother, Patricia
    Gilbreath, and Patricia’s husband, Michael Gilbreath, the
    petitioner here.1 In addition to S.L., Gilbreath and Patricia had
    two children of their own, Haiden, who is the same age as S.L.;
    and Aaron, who is four years older than S.L. They also raised
    S.L.’s half-brother, Giovanni, who is two years younger than
    S.L., from the age of five. Although Gilbreath and Patricia were
    her grandparents, S.L. referred to them as her parents. This
    family of six lived in a small house that had two bedrooms at
    the time that the assaults began. When S.L. was nine, she
    shared a bedroom with all of the children in the home. She and
    Haiden slept together on a futon, where they arranged them-
    1
    For clarity, we will refer to the petitioner as Gilbreath and will refer to
    other family members by their first names.
    No. 20-2638                                                            3
    selves so that S.L.’s head was even with Haiden’s feet.
    Giovanni and Aaron slept in a bunk bed directly above the
    girls for a year or two of the relevant time period, but later
    moved to the second bedroom after a third bedroom was
    created by a garage conversion. Patricia slept on a couch in the
    living room, and had a direct view into the girls’ bedroom,
    which was just steps away.
    During the relevant time period, Gilbreath would regularly
    come home drunk in the early morning hours and sometimes
    go into the children’s room. Gilbreath’s nighttime visits ended
    in 2006 when he was convicted of driving under the influence
    and was sentenced to a term of imprisonment. In 2008, shortly
    before Gilbreath was due to be released from prison, S.L., then
    fourteen years old and in eighth grade, disclosed for the first
    time that Gilbreath had sexually assaulted her during these
    nighttime visits. S.L. first told a friend and then told a school
    guidance counselor at that friend’s urging. That first disclosure
    led to an investigation by social services and law enforcement.
    Social worker Kelly Oleson interviewed S.L., accompanied
    by Deputy Cheryl Thompson. Oleson and Thompson both
    generated reports of the interview.2 Oleson wrote that S.L. told
    her that Gilbreath would come into her room at 2:00 or 3:00
    a.m. after a night of drinking, that he would get into the bed
    and rub her stomach, and touch and rub her breast and vaginal
    2
    When we describe the reports of social services and law enforcement as
    undisputed, we mean only that there is no dispute as to what the reports
    say. We do not mean to imply that Gilbreath does not dispute the truth of
    some of the statements that social services and law enforcement recorded
    in those reports.
    4                                                   No. 20-2638
    areas (which she indicated by gesturing). S.L. reported that this
    had happened five or six times, and that the touching occurred
    over her clothing. She also said that Gilbreath “used to do it
    when she was younger.” S.L. said that Haiden was generally
    asleep while this was happening but that Haiden had told her
    that this had happened to her once too. Gilbreath would also
    sometimes kiss both girls on the lips. S.L. would often pretend
    to be asleep when these things were happening. At the end of
    each incident, Gilbreath would leave the room and go to his
    own bedroom. S.L. blushed and became embarrassed when she
    told Oleson that she had not told Gilbreath to stop. She told
    Oleson that Gilbreath once apologized for what he had done to
    her the previous night, and that he was a different person
    when he was drinking. She said that she had not told Patricia
    about what had happened, that she feared her parents would
    get divorced if Patricia found out, and that she did not want
    Gilbreath to go to jail or have to participate in programs
    because this had happened. S.L. did not think Gilbreath would
    do this again unless he began drinking again. When asked if
    anyone else knew what had happened, S.L. reported that she
    once told Aaron and that he had replied that she should tell
    him if it happened again and he would do something about it.
    She had also told the friend who encouraged her to go to the
    guidance counselor, Aaron’s best friend Dustin, and her cousin
    Kayla. Deputy Thompson’s report largely tracked that of
    Oleson in all of the relevant details, including a note that S.L.
    didn’t want “anything big” to happen to Gilbreath such as
    additional jail time, that she just wanted him to not do this
    again. After concluding the interview with S.L., Oleson
    interviewed Haiden. According to Oleson’s report of that
    No. 20-2638                                                    5
    interview, Haiden reported that Gilbreath had kissed her “like
    a boyfriend.” As a result of the 2008 investigation, Patricia was
    asked to put a lock on the door of the girls’ bedroom and to
    keep Gilbreath away from S.L.
    In 2010, S.L., then sixteen years of age, again raised
    allegations of the pre-2008 abuse with a school counselor, and
    she was again interviewed by social services and law
    enforcement. Oleson conducted the social services interview
    for this second disclosure, accompanied this time by
    Investigator Mark Bitsky of the county sheriff’s office.
    According to Oleson’s report, S.L. said she was getting into
    trouble with her parents, and that Gilbreath was calling her
    abusive and degrading names and threatening to hit her. He
    compared her unfavorably to her biological mother (Patricia’s
    daughter) and threatened to punch her in the face. She had a
    boyfriend named Robert whom Gilbreath did not like.
    Although Gilbreath would not allow her to date, she was
    sometimes allowed to visit Robert at his home. S.L. told Oleson
    that she often hid out in her bedroom because of Gilbreath’s
    poor treatment of her. S.L. reported that Gilbreath used very
    vulgar and inappropriate language with her and sometimes
    with Haiden regarding his sex life and his past sexual
    encounters; he also told S.L. that he no longer had sex with
    Patricia. Oleson’s report described Gilbreath’s remarks to S.L.
    as “graphic and inappropriate for a parent to be having with
    their child.” R. 7-4, at 2. S.L. was concerned that Gilbreath
    might have started drinking again. She was also concerned
    because he had begun to come into her bedroom again at night,
    and she feared he would act as he had before going to prison
    in 2006. Oleson noted that S.L. had engaged in self-harm by
    6                                                   No. 20-2638
    cutting her skin and also by burning her skin with chemicals.
    S.L. reported that Gilbreath was angry about the cutting
    behavior. Her boyfriend, Robert, also engaged in cutting, and
    her parents blamed Robert for S.L.’s self-harm.
    S.L.’s second disclosure, like her first, addressed conduct
    that occurred when she was between nine and twelve years of
    age. She denied that Gilbreath committed any new offenses
    after his 2008 release from prison. But during the second
    disclosure, Oleson reported that S.L. described more frequent
    instances of abuse in the original time period of 2002 or 2003 to
    2006. For example, she described certain abuse as occurring
    more times than she could count, and then estimated that it
    occurred twenty times. S.L. also gave graphic accounts of
    particular incidents, telling Oleson that Gilbreath had regularly
    touched her genital area beneath her clothing (hereafter “the
    nighttime abuse”), including a specific incident that occurred
    in his bedroom; that he had caused her to touch his genitals
    directly (hereafter “the masturbation incident”); and that he
    had engaged in other abuse that occurred while he was bathing
    her at a young age (hereafter “the bathtub incident”). These
    allegations were more detailed than those that she had made
    two years earlier, at the age of fourteen. Oleson characterized
    the second disclosure as “more descriptive” than the interview
    in 2008, but noted that “many [sic] of the surrounding detailed
    information was identical.” R. 7-4, at 4. S.L. told Oleson and
    Bitsky that she did not want them to talk to Gilbreath or
    Patricia because she feared her mother would be angry with
    her. She reported that the entire family was angry with her
    after her 2008 disclosure. Oleson also interviewed Haiden
    again who this time told Oleson that she was “the lucky one.”
    No. 20-2638                                                     7
    Oleson halted Haiden’s interview when she became very
    upset.
    Bitsky requested that Oleson arrange a forensic interview
    at Safe Harbor, a child advocacy center in Madison, Wisconsin.
    The Safe Harbor interview, which was recorded and
    transcribed, largely tracked the second interview with Oleson,
    but in greater detail. Because the second interview with Oleson
    was largely consistent with the forensic interview, we will refer
    to these jointly as the second disclosure. According to Bitsky’s
    report of the forensic interview, S.L. described certain
    recurring nighttime abuse as taking place two to three times a
    week, but she had difficulty “singling out each event.” R. 7-7,
    at 2. In describing the regular incidents of nighttime abuse, S.L.
    reported that Gilbreath would remove her bottom clothing and
    directly touch her genitals. She also described three particular
    incidents that differed from the usual nighttime abuse. In
    addition to an incident of nighttime abuse that occurred in
    Gilbreath’s bedroom rather than her own, she described two
    incidents of particular conduct that were different from the
    regularly occurring abuse. The first incident, the bathtub
    incident, involved Gilbreath getting into the bathtub with her
    while they were both naked, and having him place her, in a
    seated position, on top of his penis. She did not recall anything
    more specific from that incident. She believed this was the
    beginning of the abuse, and said that she was very young
    when it happened, too young to bathe herself. She also
    described the masturbation incident in detail, but could not
    recall how the masturbation incident ended. She believed it
    was the last incident of abuse prior to Gilbreath’s arrest for
    drunk driving in 2006. S.L. repeated to the forensic interviewer
    8                                                           No. 20-2638
    that Gilbreath called her vulgar names, that he had not abused
    her since being released from prison, that Gilbreath had
    inappropriate and graphic conversations with her about his sex
    life, that she believed he had abused Haiden on one occasion,
    and that Gilbreath had twice apologized to her for the abuse,
    once before he went to prison and once after he came home
    from prison.
    The record does not reveal why S.L.’s first disclosure did
    not lead to criminal charges against Gilbreath, but the second
    disclosure resulted in Gilbreath being charged with first degree
    sexual assault of a child. After S.L. made the second disclosure
    to Oleson and Bitsky and before the forensic interview,
    Gilbreath was arrested3 and Patricia placed S.L. in foster care.
    B.
    With this background in place, we turn to the evidence
    produced at trial. The State’s primary witness at Gilbreath’s
    three-day jury trial was S.L., who was then twenty years old,
    married and the mother of a child. The State also presented
    testimony from Ann McKinley (an expert on child sexual
    abuse), Patricia and Haiden. Gilbreath testified on his own
    behalf and was the only witness presented in the defense case.
    At trial, S.L. testified that, when she was a child, Gilbreath
    came into her room drunk late at night and touched her breast
    and genital areas under and over her clothing. Consistent with
    her second disclosure, she said that it happened many times
    3
    It appears that Gilbreath was taken into custody on a probation violation
    involving the use of alcohol. He was later charged with abuse of S.L., but
    faced consequences for the probation violation in the interim.
    No. 20-2638                                                    9
    but could not give a definitive number. She also testified
    regarding three specific incidents, namely, the instance of
    nighttime abuse that occurred in Gilbreath’s room, the
    masturbation incident and the bathtub incident consistent with
    the second disclosure. She said that, during the time period
    when the abuse was occurring, she told her cousin Kayla, and
    Aaron what was happening. In the case of Kayla, she tried to
    spell the word “molest” on a piece of paper, and Kayla replied
    that it was “gross,” that she would not go near Gilbreath again.
    She testified that when she told Aaron that Gilbreath was
    touching her inappropriately, he replied that if it happened
    again, she should tell him and he would do something about
    it. She also described telling the friend who encouraged her to
    report it, and the guidance counselor whom she told as a
    result. She testified that she did not go into detail about the
    abuse during the first disclosure because she was
    uncomfortable and did not understand some of terms. She
    described Gilbreath’s verbal abuse after he returned from
    prison, and testified that when she was 15 or 16, Gilbreath cut
    up her temporary driver’s license. She denied delinquent
    behavior or being suspended at school. She admitted that she
    cut and burned herself during that time period, explaining that
    she did so in part to make herself unattractive to Gilbreath.
    Asked what caused her to disclose the abuse for a second
    time in 2010, she replied that she “was scared [of] what was
    going to happen,” that “everything started kind of going south
    where, you know, my license got tore up, and I was getting
    yelled at all of the time.” R. 6-10, at 137. She implied that she
    was getting bad grades at that time and said that she was
    getting yelled at for things she had not done. After the second
    10                                                 No. 20-2638
    disclosure, Patricia was angry with her and accused her of
    lying, and Haiden would not speak to her. Shortly after the
    second disclosure, social services removed her from the home
    and she was placed in foster care. Asked if she had ever made
    a written account of what happened to her, S.L. testified that
    she wrote a letter to her counselor, who thought that the
    writing exercise might help her cope with what had happened.
    On cross-examination, defense counsel established that S.L.
    saw Gilbreath as the disciplinarian in the home, that he was the
    one to ground the children or take away privileges. S.L. also
    agreed that Gilbreath had “more to say” about the girls’
    relationships with boys. Counsel then turned his attention to
    the letter that S.L. said she had written to her counselor. In
    response to defense counsel’s questions, S.L. confirmed that
    she wrote the letter on her own in response to her counselor
    telling her to write down everything she remembered; that she
    typed it on a computer, chose the font and formatting, and
    printed it out; and that she wrote it when she was still in high
    school. Defense counsel then asked:
    And when you were doing that, were you trying to
    write out as best you could what you remembered
    happening so that you could address that with your
    counselor, correct?
    R. 6-10, at 156. S.L. replied, “Correct.” In response to
    questioning, she indicated that she wrote the letter in
    approximately an hour. Her foster mother later provided it to
    the prosecution.
    After going through the layout of the small house and
    having S.L. identify various locations, defense counsel then
    No. 20-2638                                                             11
    brought forth a number of letters and asked S.L. if she had
    written the letters to Gilbreath while he was in prison. After
    saying that she did not recognize any of the letters, she
    eventually conceded that, although she did not remember
    writing any of the letters, she may have forgotten and so could
    not say for certain that she did not write a particular letter.4
    Counsel then attempted to impeach S.L. with Oleson’s initial
    report from the first disclosure. Counsel pointed out that S.L.
    reported to Oleson that the touching occurred over her
    clothing and that it had happened five or six times. S.L.
    testified that she did not remember being asked about the
    number of times the incidents occurred, and also did not
    remember being asked for details at that first interview. Nor
    did she recall saying that the incidents occurred five or six
    times, or that the touching occurred only over her clothing.
    Counsel then attempted to further impeach her with a
    statement she had made under oath at a preliminary hearing
    two years before the trial. At the preliminary hearing, she was
    also asked about whether she had told Oleson at the initial
    disclosure that Gilbreath touched her only over her clothing.
    At the preliminary hearing, S.L. denied telling Oleson that the
    touching occurred only over her clothing. At the trial, she
    confirmed that this would still be her answer, despite what
    4
    Defense counsel attempted to establish that S.L. sent Gilbreath letters
    when he was in prison where she expressed a strong desire to have him
    home again. He argued that the letters demonstrated that S.L. did not fear
    Gilbreath’s return from prison, as she claimed. The prosecution sought to
    show that the letters were forgeries. Although there is no way to know what
    the jury made of the letters, the trial court determined during sentencing
    proceedings that the letters were forged. R. 6-16, at 31.
    12                                                            No. 20-2638
    was written in Oleson’s report. In response to the direct
    question, “So if [the interviewers] wrote that, they were
    mistaken?”, S.L. replied, “Yes.” R. 6-11, at 186–87.5
    Counsel then returned to the letter S.L. wrote to her
    counselor, and on this subject, he had even more success, so
    much so that he was later stunned by the jury’s verdict. We
    will describe this impeachment in detail because it was critical
    to counsel’s decisions at trial. S.L. first confirmed that she had
    not seen the letter for years. Counsel then pointed out that the
    letter said that Gilbreath would barge into her room between
    midnight and three in the morning with no clothes on
    (contrary to her trial testimony that he would enter the room
    wearing a robe and underwear). S.L. did not remember writing
    that he came in naked, she denied that it had ever happened
    that way, and she confirmed that she recalled him wearing a
    robe.
    Counsel than brought up a number of statements in the
    letter to the counselor that S.L. confirmed were not true and
    denied writing in the letter that she had just admitted writing.
    5
    Defense counsel’s attempt to impeach S.L. was somewhat confusing until
    he handed her a transcript of her prior testimony. Until that point, neither
    S.L. nor the presiding judge understood what he was asking. The confusion
    cleared once the transcript was provided. S.L. then gave the answer that
    defense counsel sought, namely that she disagreed with Oleson’s report.
    She denied that she had said at the initial disclosure interview that the
    touching incidents all occurred over her clothing. She said that Oleson was
    mistaken if that was what she wrote. That meant that, although her trial
    testimony was consistent with her testimony at the preliminary hearing, it
    conflicted with the contemporaneous report generated by Oleson, a
    disinterested third party who interviewed her close in time to the incidents.
    No. 20-2638                                                     13
    For example, the letter stated that, during the masturbation
    incident, Gilbreath ejaculated on her bed. She did not
    remember writing that to the counselor, and confirmed that
    she did not recall how the masturbation incident ended. She
    also did not remember writing more details regarding the
    bathtub incident, and agreed that the bathtub incident did not
    happen the way it was described in the letter to her counselor.
    She confirmed that she remembered nothing about the bathtub
    incident other than Gilbreath sitting her on his lap in the tub
    when they were both naked. She also denied writing that she
    said nothing to Gilbreath while this was happening because he
    would beat her, testifying that she had not written this and that
    it was untrue. She denied writing that the abuse went on every
    night for four to five years, and also denied that the abuse went
    on for that long, explaining that Gilbreath was in prison for
    some part of that time period. She insisted that she would not
    have put something in the letter that was not true. Asked how
    all of this incorrect content got into the letter, she said she did
    not know, that she gave the letter to her foster mother and did
    not know what happened to it after that. She also said that her
    foster mother would not have altered the letter.
    She denied writing that, after her secret was out (after the
    first disclosure), she became a “wild child” for two years,
    doing what she wanted and that no one could tell her what to
    do. She denied writing that she was cutting and burning
    herself, but agreed that it was true that she was cutting and
    burning herself in that time period. She denied writing other,
    less material statements in the letter, some of which she agreed
    were true and some of which she testified were not true.
    Defense counsel asked if she lied to her counselor in these
    14                                                   No. 20-2638
    statements, and she replied, “I did not lie to my counselor.” R.
    6-11, at 202. She also denied typing most of the letter that she
    had just testified that she typed, saying, “No. Most of the stuff
    in here, I did not type, because it’s not true.” R. 6-11, at 202.
    There is no dispute that the letter to the counselor contained all
    of the statements that S.L. first affirmed that she wrote and
    then moments later denied that she wrote. And there is no
    dispute that this version of events was a significant departure
    from the versions she reported at the first and second
    disclosures.
    Counsel concluded his cross-examination of S.L. with
    questions about whether she reported at the second disclosure
    having “tension and disputes” with Gilbreath. S.L. did not
    recall saying those things to the interviewers at the second
    disclosure. Nor did she recall telling the interviewers that
    Gilbreath and Patricia did not like her boyfriend Robert and
    tried to cut her off from him. She also did not remember saying
    at the second disclosure that Gilbreath was yelling at her
    almost every day. She did remember Gilbreath tearing up her
    driving permit, and admitted she was angry because she had
    paid for driver’s education and the permit by herself with
    money she earned from work, and because it delayed her
    ability to drive. She agreed that she was “pretty unhappy,
    angry even,” when Gilbreath did this. She could not recall
    when this occurred in relation to the second disclosure.
    The prosecutor attempted to rehabilitate S.L. on re-direct,
    trying to recast the letter to the counselor as representing
    emotional truth rather than factual truth. S.L. eventually
    agreed that the letter was meant to express emotional truth.
    She explained that she had significant mental health issues
    No. 20-2638                                                     15
    after she was removed from the Gilbreath home following the
    second disclosure, suffering from depression to the point of
    suicidal thoughts. It was during that time frame that she was
    in counseling and would have written this letter, and agreed
    that her memory of writing parts of the letter could have been
    impaired by the emotional distress she was suffering at that
    time. On re-direct, S.L. also explained that in her first
    disclosure interview, it was difficult to tell Oleson and
    Thompson that the abuse occurred both under and over her
    clothing. She confirmed that the interviewers showed her a
    diagram of an unclothed human body in order for her to
    identify where she had been touched. By pointing to areas of
    the unclothed body in the diagram, she believed she had
    conveyed in the first disclosure that she was touched under
    and over her clothing. On re-cross, she continued to deny
    having written anything that was factually untrue, and could
    not explain the erroneous contents of the letter to her
    counselor.
    The prosecution next presented Haiden and Patricia.
    Haiden did not recall telling Oleson that Gilbreath kissed her
    like a boyfriend but agreed that, because the interview
    occurred a long time ago, it was “maybe” possible that she said
    it. Haiden testified that Gilbreath called S.L. a “bitch,” and said
    he also called the other children names when he was angry.
    Haiden confirmed that Gilbreath sometimes came into the
    girls’ bedroom at night. Although she was usually sleeping
    when he came in, she recalled that he would say goodnight
    and hug them. She would not fall asleep again until he left. She
    denied telling Oleson in 2010 that she did not know what
    happened when Gilbreath would come into the room at night
    16                                                  No. 20-2638
    because she would roll over. Shown Oleson’s report of her
    2010 interview, Haiden said that her memory was not
    refreshed. She did recall crying at the interview, agreeing that
    the interview was difficult for her and that it ended because
    she was upset. She did not recall telling Oleson that she was
    “the lucky one.” R. 6-12, at 257. She conceded that it was
    possible that she told Oleson that she was the lucky one
    because she was “really confused then.” R. 6-12, at 258. Haiden
    also confirmed that Gilbreath had inappropriate conversations
    with his children about his sex life, including discussions about
    receiving oral sex. She recalled being fifteen or sixteen during
    the conversation about oral sex.
    On cross-examination, Haiden recalled Gilbreath visiting
    the room but not getting between the girls on the futon bed;
    instead he “either sat on our bed or laid on our bed
    somewhere.” R. 6-12, at 265. Haiden also testified that
    Gilbreath talked about his sexual escapades in front of S.L.,
    Giovanni and herself, and that they would laugh when he said
    these things.
    Patricia testified that she found out about S.L.’s second
    disclosure only after calling Bitsky to find out why Gilbreath
    had been arrested. Patricia met the next day with Oleson and
    asked her to remove S.L. from the home because she did not
    want her around and was “done with her.” R. 6-12, at 293. As
    for S.L.’s boyfriend Robert, Patricia testified that S.L. was
    allowed to visit him at his home when his parents were present
    but was not allowed to stay overnight. Patricia denied that S.L.
    was a “problem child,” but said that, beginning at the ages of
    fourteen or fifteen, she did not want to be told what to do
    anymore, that she “wanted to come and go,” and wanted to
    No. 20-2638                                                    17
    date. R. 6-12, at 300. But they did not allow her to stay out late
    and required her to let them know where she was. Patricia
    confirmed that S.L. was never suspended or expelled from
    school; nor was she ever in juvenile court. Asked if it was her
    belief that S.L. disclosed the sexual assault because there were
    restrictions and she did not want to follow the rules, Patricia
    replied, “Well, her license was cut up and stuff like that. She
    wanted to go and do what she wanted to do, and she couldn’t
    do that.” R. 6-12, at 302. The prosecutor then asked what the
    problem was when S.L. was fourteen that Patricia believed
    caused her to retaliate by alleging sexual assault (at the time of
    the first disclosure), and Patricia responded, “I don’t know.”
    R. 6-12, at 302.
    Patricia conceded that Gilbreath was harder to deal with
    when he was drunk and became “cocky.” R. 6-12, at 306. At
    those times, she would not talk to him. She testified that he
    went out drinking once or twice a week. She confirmed that,
    when he came home drunk, he would sometimes go into the
    girls’ rooms, where she could see him from the couch where
    she slept. He sometimes lingered there long enough for her to
    ask him what he was doing. She said that he sat on the floor in
    the girls’ room, and that although she was a light sleeper, it
    was possible that she fell back asleep on occasion when he was
    in the girls’ room.
    Rather than calling Oleson as a witness, the parties agreed
    to two stipulations regarding Oleson’s reports. The prosecution
    read the following stipulation to the jury:
    If called to testify, Social Worker Kelly Oleson
    would testify that, at one point in the interview of
    18                                                          No. 20-2638
    Haiden Gilbreath on June 2, 2010, Haiden stated,
    quote, “I was the lucky one.”
    R. 6-13, at 6. Defense counsel told the jury:
    [T]he defense notes that it’s the agreement of the
    parties that were Kelly Oleson called to testify,
    that—about the interview of [S.L.], January 26 of
    2008, that [S.L.] was asked how many times the
    touching had occurred. And she stated, “Five or six
    times.”
    R. 6-13, at 6. That concluded the prosecution’s case-in-chief.
    Gilbreath then testified in his own defense. He conceded
    that he had eight convictions for driving under the influence,
    and asserted that May 11, 2006, the day of his last arrest for
    drunk driving, marked the last time he consumed alcohol. He
    also admitted that on certain occasions prior to that May 2006
    arrest, when he was on probation after serving time in jail for
    driving under the influence, he violated the conditions of his
    probation by continuing to drink alcohol.6 He testified that
    during his last period of custody (from 2006 to 2008), he
    decided to stop drinking and entered an alcohol treatment
    program at an inpatient facility.
    Shortly before his release from prison in 2008, he learned
    from his wife that S.L. had accused him of sexual abuse. He
    6
    On cross-examination, he admitted that he drank in violation of his
    probation conditions when on release after a drunk driving offense in 2004.
    He testified that although he was going to bars once or twice a week during
    that time, he was not caught, and he agreed that Patricia, Haiden and S.L.
    covered for him during that time. R. 6-13, at 114–16.
    No. 20-2638                                                             19
    testified, “I swallowed my heart,” when he heard this, and
    could not believe that S.L. “would lie about me sexually
    assaulting her.” R. 6-13, at 71. He admitted that he came home
    drunk late at night four or five times a month,7 and that he
    infrequently8 went into the girls’ room in that condition. He
    testified that he also went into his sons’ room when he came
    home drunk, because he missed his children. He explained that
    when he went into the children’s rooms, he would smoke a
    cigarette, drink a glass of water, say goodnight, tell the
    children he loved them, and say prayers with them. He
    testified that he stayed in the rooms for five minutes or less.
    Counsel led Gilbreath through the small layout of the house,
    the sleeping arrangements, the lighting at night, and the
    improbability that a grown man could get into a small futon
    with two children without Patricia or Haiden noticing that he
    was there. Gilbreath denied climbing on the futon with the
    girls during nighttime visits.9
    He described himself as the principal disciplinarian of the
    family, imposing punishments that included grounding,
    7
    On cross-examination, he said he went to bars once or twice a week,
    sometimes more and sometimes less. R. 6-13, at 108.
    8
    On cross-examination, he called his visits to the girls’ room “rare,”
    claiming that although it was important to him to say good night to his
    children and although he came home drunk once or twice a week, he went
    into the girls’ room at night only a “couple times” throughout their entire
    childhood. R. 6-13, at 109–10.
    9
    He conceded on cross-examination that he did lay on the futon with his
    children during the day, but claimed he was never on the futon with both
    S.L. and Haiden at the same time. R. 6-14, at 134–35.
    20                                                   No. 20-2638
    chores, spanking, and writing out the alphabet. Asked if the
    girls had behavioral problems that required discipline before
    he went to prison in 2006, Gilbreath replied, “Not so much the
    girls.” R. 6-13, at 90. Asked about behavioral problems among
    the children after he was released from prison in 2008,
    Gilbreath testified that S.L. was constantly lying, going places
    other than where she said, not coming home on time, and not
    calling. He imposed discipline but she continued to break his
    rules. At one point, as a result of her lying, he decided to cut
    her driver’s permit in half because he did not trust her driving
    on his insurance. S.L. cried when he cut the permit in half. He
    also was “a little bit” concerned about her relationship with
    Robert, and had placed restrictions on the times and places that
    she could be with him. R. 6-13, at 102. S.L. argued with him
    over the restrictions. Asked about his relationship with S.L.
    during that time, Gilbreath responded, “In that time frame, me
    and [S.L.] were fine. Me and [S.L.] got along just fine.” R. 6-13,
    at 103. In clarifying the time frame, Gilbreath explained that he
    and S.L. were “fine until I cut her license in half. And then she
    began to somewhat isolate. We got along.” R. 6-13, at 103. As
    for the timing of cutting up the permit, Gilbreath believed it
    No. 20-2638                                                                  21
    was a week or two before he was taken into custody in 2010.
    10 R. 6
    -13, at 104.
    Gilbreath testified that he was interviewed by law
    enforcement after each of S.L.’s disclosures. When he was
    released from prison in 2008, he voluntarily spoke to detectives
    about S.L.’s allegations. He told them that it did not happen
    and he did not know why she would make such accusations.
    Two years later, he was taken into custody for two months on
    a report that he had been drinking and driving in violation of
    his probation conditions. He denied that he had been drinking,
    and admitted only that, although he was not permitted by the
    conditions of his probation to go to bars, he had done so in
    order to pick up his children from work.11 During this two-
    10
    There was some confusion in the record on the timing of the driver’s
    permit incident. On cross-examination, Gilbreath agreed that he cut up
    S.L.’s permit in the spring of 2008, approximately two years before the
    second disclosure. R. 6-14, at 129. In closing arguments, the prosecutor
    corrected what she characterized as a math error in her claim that two years
    transpired between the permit incident and the second disclosure; she
    asserted instead that one year and one month passed between the permit
    incident and the second disclosure. R. 6-14, at 164. The jury was
    admonished that the attorneys’ statements were not evidence. R. 6-14, at
    148.
    11
    Cutting an exceedingly fine distinction, Gilbreath testified that he was
    prohibited from entering bars or taverns, which he understood to mean
    businesses that earned income mainly through selling alcohol. His children
    worked at a resort which he thought he was allowed to enter. He admitted
    to “hang[ing] out” at the resort “[a] little bit,” but denied drinking while he
    was there. R. 6-13, at 97. Nevertheless, when released after the two-month
    incarceration, he was required to report in to probation by phone at certain
    (continued...)
    22                                                            No. 20-2638
    month incarceration, Bitsky interviewed him regarding S.L.’s
    second disclosure. He told Bitsky that he was innocent, and
    that he had nothing to say about something that did not
    happen. The defense rested at the close of Gilbreath’s cross-
    examination.
    C.
    The jury made short work of the case, retiring to the jury
    room at 4:35 p.m. on a Friday afternoon, and returning with
    the verdict of guilty at 6:05 p.m. The court sentenced Gilbreath
    to ten years in prison, to be followed by fifteen years of
    extended supervision. In a post-conviction motion, Gilbreath
    sought a new trial on two grounds: in the interest of justice
    because the real controversy of S.L.’s credibility was not fully
    tried; and due to ineffective assistance of counsel.12 There was
    considerable factual overlap between the two issues raised.
    The same judge who presided over the trial held a hearing on
    Gilbreath’s motion at which defense counsel testified
    extensively regarding his representation of Gilbreath at trial.
    We will discuss counsel’s testimony below. The court also
    heard testimony from Aaron, Haiden, Giovanni, Kayla, Kayla’s
    mother Dawn (who is Gilbreath’s sister), Gilbreath and
    Patricia. The court denied the motion for a new trial, rejecting
    11
    (...continued)
    times and submit to Breathalyzer tests. A jury could infer from this that
    probation suspected that he was in fact drinking again.
    12
    Gilbreath raised additional issues on the post-conviction motion that are
    not relevant to the issues on appeal. The court denied relief on those claims
    as well.
    No. 20-2638                                                                 23
    both grounds. In rejecting the statutory claim that the real
    controversy of S.L.’s credibility was not fully tried, the court
    noted that the defendant bore the burden of demonstrating a
    substantial probability that a new trial would produce a
    different result. See 
    Wis. Stat. § 752.35
    . The court found that the
    jury did in fact hear evidence on every one of the topics raised
    by Gilbreath. The court dismissed the need for “new witnesses
    or more witnesses saying the same thing,” characterizing the
    proposed evidence as “just old wine and new bottles.” R. 6-16,
    at 18. The court characterized the omitted evidence as
    repetitive and cumulative, and concluded that Gilbreath did
    not demonstrate a substantial probability that a new trial
    would produce a different result.
    The court also rejected the motion for a new trial based on
    ineffective assistance of counsel. Gilbreath asserted that
    counsel was ineffective because: (1) he did not object on
    hearsay and confrontation grounds when S.L. testified that she
    reported the assaults to family members and they responded
    with supportive statements; (2) he failed to impeach S.L. with
    prior inconsistent statements regarding the nature of the
    assaults and her motive to lie; (3) he did not present family
    witnesses who could have contradicted S.L.’s testimony and
    corroborated a motive to lie; (4) he did not present numerous
    witnesses regarding S.L.’s character for truthfulness; (5) he
    failed to present evidence on the authenticity of letters
    purportedly written by S.L. to Gilbreath when he was in
    prison;13 and (6) he failed to investigate the existence of an
    13
    This issue was raised in relation to a request to vacate the sentence and
    (continued...)
    24                                                            No. 20-2638
    audio recording of S.L.’s 2010 second disclosure interview with
    Oleson and Bitsky.
    In assessing defense counsel’s testimony regarding his
    strategy and trial decisions, the court remarked that the
    transcript “should be required reading in every law school trial
    practice class.” R. 6-16, at 25. Although some of counsel’s
    tactics did not work out the way he thought they would, his
    decisions were rational and based on the law and the facts, the
    court found, noting that counsel had “sound reason[s]” for the
    trial strategy decisions that he made. 
    Id.
     In particular, he used
    third party witnesses to impeach S.L.’s testimony and also
    impeached her with prior inconsistent statements. He
    presented evidence regarding the crowded physical layout of
    the house and the close proximity of witnesses who saw and
    heard nothing amiss. He made clear that once he impeached
    S.L. regarding the letter to her counselor, he made a conscious
    decision that more impeachment, more evidence regarding her
    mental health, and more testimony about her character for
    untruthfulness was not only unnecessary but would have
    blunted the effect of what he accomplished in that cross-
    examination. Counsel testified that his cross-examination of
    S.L. was better than he could have ever hoped it would be, and
    13
    (...continued)
    re-sentence Gilbreath because the court purportedly relied on incorrect
    information when it concluded that the prison letters from S.L. were forged.
    The court rejected the claim that additional witnesses on the origin of the
    letters would have changed his conclusion that the letters were forged.
    During the post-conviction hearing, the court reiterated its finding that the
    letters purportedly written by S.L. to Gilbreath while he was in prison were
    forged. R. 6-16, at 31–34.
    No. 20-2638                                                               25
    the court agreed with that assessment. Indeed, the judge
    remarked, “I thought [S.L.] had been cut to pieces.” R. 6-16, at
    26. According to the judge (recall, this was the same judge who
    presided over the trial), counsel “got [S.L.] to, in my
    view—obviously not in the jury’s view—but in my view, kind
    of self-destruct.” R. 6-16, at 27. The cross-examination on the
    letter to the counselor was effective enough to cause the court
    to characterize the case as “enough … to go to the jury, but it
    certainly wasn’t a real strong case.” R. 6-16, at 26. With regard
    to the witnesses called and the testimony given at trial, the
    court could not conclude that counsel’s performance fell
    outside the wide range of competent professional services
    taken as a whole.14 The court’s only area for concern was
    counsel’s failure to realize that Oleson’s 2010 report indicated
    that Bitsky had recorded the interview. Because he did not
    notice that note in Oleson’s report, he did not seek the
    recording for possible use at trial. The court had already
    concluded in analyzing the “real controversy” motion that,
    despite that notation, such a recording did not exist at the time
    of trial and did not exist at the time of the post-conviction
    hearing, so counsel’s error had no effect on the outcome. R. 6-
    16, at 14, 29. In the end, the court concluded that counsel’s
    performance was not deficient and that Gilbreath had not been
    prejudiced by any of counsel’s claimed errors or omissions.
    14
    In considering Gilbreath’s claim that defense counsel should have
    presented additional witnesses, the court found as a factual matter that
    Aaron was unavailable to testify at Gilbreath’s trial because he was on
    probation in Colorado and was prohibited from leaving the state at that
    time. R. 6-16, at 15. Gilbreath makes no effort in this appeal to demonstrate
    that the court’s factual finding was erroneous in any way.
    26                                                   No. 20-2638
    The Wisconsin Court of Appeals affirmed the trial court’s
    ruling. The court noted that, at the post-conviction hearing,
    various members of the Gilbreath family testified that they
    believed that S.L. had a character for untruthfulness, and that
    none of them had ever witnessed the alleged assaults despite
    being in close proximity in the small house. In rejecting the
    statutory claim that the real controversy of S.L.’s credibility
    had not been fully tried without this additional evidence, the
    court cited State v. McAlister, 
    911 N.W.2d 77
     (Wis. 2018), and
    concluded that the evidence Gilbreath sought to introduce was
    simply new impeachment material of the same general
    character as impeachment evidence produced at trial, and was
    therefore cumulative. That evidence included testimony from
    Aaron and Kayla denying that S.L. ever disclosed the assaults
    to them; evidence that S.L. had behavioral problems and that
    Gilbreath interfered with her dating life; evidence that S.L. said
    in her 2008 first disclosure interview that the touching
    occurred only over her clothing and that she said nothing at
    that time about the three specific assaults that she described at
    trial; testimony by Aaron, Giovanni, Kayla and Haiden
    challenging S.L.’s credibility; testimony from family members
    regarding S.L.’s motive to lie in 2008 and regarding her
    behavioral problems and motives in 2010 at the time of the
    second disclosure; and evidence that undermined S.L.’s claim
    at trial that she did not recall sending certain letters to
    Gilbreath when he was in prison. The court of appeals held
    that none of this omitted evidence warranted a new trial on the
    statutory claim.
    Turning to the claim that counsel was ineffective for failing
    to investigate and present certain impeachment evidence, the
    No. 20-2638                                                      27
    court of appeals concluded that Gilbreath suffered no prejudice
    from counsel’s decisions because all of the evidence that he
    wanted counsel to present was merely cumulative and would
    not have changed the outcome of the trial. In a footnote, the
    appellate court also concluded that counsel’s performance was
    not deficient, summarily affirming the decision of the post-
    conviction court as being consistent with the record and the
    law. In addition, the court found that after causing S.L. to
    “kind of self-destruct” on the stand, “counsel’s decision to stop
    impeachment when he did, and not to call additional witnesses
    to further impeach S.L. ‘on the same topic,’ was a reasonable
    trial strategy under the circumstances, because trial counsel
    could reasonably have determined that doing otherwise would
    have weakened Gilbreath’s case.” State v. Gilbreath, 
    2018 WL 2347126
    , *4 n.5 (Wis. Ct. App. May 24, 2018).
    After the Wisconsin Supreme Court denied Gilbreath’s
    petition for review, he brought his federal habeas petition,
    which the district court granted. Gilbreath v. Winkleski, 
    476 F. Supp. 3d 804
     (W.D. Wis. 2020). Because our review of that
    decision is de novo, we will only briefly sketch the district
    court’s ruling. The court found that counsel was ineffective
    and that the state appellate court’s decision affirming the
    conviction was unreasonable. The court focused on counsel’s
    alleged failures to investigate and present evidence that could
    have corroborated Gilbreath’s testimony, further undermined
    S.L.’s credibility, and provided a motive for S.L. to lie at the
    time of her first disclosure in 2008. The court found that the
    failure to present certain evidence was due not to strategic
    decisions during trial but to a failure to investigate before trial.
    The court found counsel’s explanations for why he made
    28                                                  No. 20-2638
    certain decisions “not plausible” and concluded that many of
    counsel’s decisions not to impeach S.L. with prior inconsistent
    statements were based on inadvertence or neglect rather than
    strategy. The court found that these various failures prejudiced
    Gilbreath because the proposed evidence would have been
    corroborative, not merely cumulative, and could have changed
    the outcome in this credibility contest. The court also found
    that the state court engaged in an unreasonable application of
    Strickland when it applied state rather than federal law in
    determining that the evidence was merely cumulative instead
    of corroborative. Under federal law, the evidence would be
    considered corroborative, according to the district court, and
    because the case was close, the errors had a “reasonable
    chance” of affecting the outcome. The district court therefore
    granted the writ, and the State of Wisconsin now appeals.
    II.
    On appeal, the State contends that the Wisconsin Court of
    Appeals neither unreasonably applied the law as set forth in
    Strickland nor relied on an unreasonable determination of the
    facts when it concluded that counsel was not deficient and that
    Gilbreath suffered no prejudice from the failure to present
    evidence that it determined was cumulative. We review the
    district court’s grant of Gilbreath’s habeas petition de novo.
    Goodloe, 4 F.4th at 448; Mosley v. Butler, 
    762 F.3d 579
    , 587 (7th
    Cir. 2014).
    Because this appeal is governed by the Antiterrorism and
    Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (“AEDPA”), we give great
    deference to the state court. Goodloe, 4 F.4th at 448–49. Where
    the state court has made a decision on the merits, we may
    No. 20-2638                                                    29
    grant relief only if that decision was “contrary to, or involved
    an unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law,
    as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States,” or
    “was based on an unreasonable determination of the facts in
    light of the evidence presented in the State court proceeding.”
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d); Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 97–98
    (2011); Goodloe, 4 F.4th at 449. In making out a claim for
    ineffective assistance of counsel:
    First, the defendant must show that counsel’s
    performance was deficient. This requires showing
    that counsel made errors so serious that counsel was
    not functioning as the “counsel” guaranteed the
    defendant by the Sixth Amendment. Second, the
    defendant must show that the deficient performance
    prejudiced the defense. This requires showing that
    counsel’s errors were so serious as to deprive the
    defendant of a fair trial, a trial whose result is
    reliable.
    Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 687 (1984). When a claim
    of ineffective assistance is assessed in the context of a habeas
    proceeding, the “pivotal question is whether the state court’s
    application of the Strickland standard was unreasonable. This
    is different from asking whether defense counsel’s
    performance fell below Strickland's standard.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 101
    . Section 2254:
    preserves authority to issue the writ in cases where
    there is no possibility fairminded jurists could
    disagree that the state court’s decision conflicts with
    [the Supreme] Court’s precedents. It goes no further.
    30                                                   No. 20-2638
    Section 2254(d) reflects the view that habeas corpus
    is a “guard against extreme malfunctions in the state
    criminal justice systems,” not a substitute for
    ordinary error correction through appeal. As a
    condition for obtaining habeas corpus from a federal
    court, a state prisoner must show that the state
    court’s ruling on the claim being presented in
    federal court was so lacking in justification that
    there was an error well understood and
    comprehended in existing law beyond any
    possibility for fairminded disagreement.
    Richter, 
    562 U.S. at
    102–03. Because the standards created by
    Strickland and section 2254(d) are both highly deferential,
    “when the two apply in tandem, review is ‘doubly’ so.” Richter,
    
    562 U.S. at 105
    .
    A.
    Gilbreath argues that he was denied the effective assistance
    of counsel when his trial lawyer failed to: (1) investigate S.L.’s
    claims that she disclosed the assaults to Aaron and Kayla,
    neglecting to interview them or present their testimony;
    (2) impeach S.L.’s testimony denying her motive to lie with her
    prior statements discussing her behavioral problems and
    Gilbreath’s interference with her dating life; (3) impeach S.L.
    with inconsistencies between the statements she made in the
    first disclosure and her testimony at trial, and with her failure
    to mention at the initial disclosure any of the three specific
    instances of abuse she testified to at trial; (4) investigate
    witnesses and present testimony from family members
    corroborating Gilbreath’s version of events and establishing
    No. 20-2638                                                              31
    S.L.’s character for dishonesty; and (5) present evidence
    regarding S.L.’s motive to lie at the time of the first disclosure
    or regarding S.L.’s behavioral problems leading up to the
    second disclosure.15 To establish deficient performance, a
    person challenging a conviction must show that counsel’s
    representation fell below an objective standard of
    reasonableness, applying a strong presumption that counsel’s
    representation was within the wide range of reasonable
    professional assistance. Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 104
    ; United States v.
    Best, 
    426 F.3d 937
    , 945 (7th Cir. 2005) (review of the attorney’s
    performance is highly deferential and reflects a strong
    presumption that counsel’s conduct falls within the wide range
    of reasonable professional assistance; that is, the defendant
    must overcome the presumption that, under the circumstances,
    the challenged action might be considered sound trial
    strategy).
    We begin with the question of whether counsel was
    deficient, and more specifically with the question of whether
    the state court’s application of the Strickland standard on
    15
    As the State of Wisconsin noted in its reply brief, Gilbreath’s habeas
    claims have changed over time. At the time of the post-conviction hearing,
    Gilbreath withdrew multiple claims of deficiency including several that he
    brings on appeal now. Some of these issues overlapped factually with
    Gilbreath’s statutory “real controversy” claim and so the factual record was
    developed in the Wisconsin courts. In the interests of simplifying the case,
    the State elected on appeal to withdraw its claims of procedural default for
    those issues. However, as the State notes, Gilbreath’s withdrawal of those
    claims in the post-conviction court led the court to not make findings or
    legal conclusions on those claims in the context of ineffective assistance
    under Strickland. Because the State has essentially waived waiver, we will
    address these claims on the merits.
    32                                                 No. 20-2638
    deficiency was unreasonable. Gilbreath’s trial lawyer,
    Christopher Van Wagner, testified extensively regarding his
    trial strategy, and how it affected his decisions throughout the
    trial. “[S]trategic choices made after thorough investigation of
    law and facts relevant to plausible options are virtually
    unchallengeable; and strategic choices made after less than
    complete investigation are reasonable precisely to the extent
    that reasonable professional judgments support the limitations
    on investigation.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    690–91. Gilbreath
    contends that the state court unreasonably applied Strickland
    by deferring to some of Van Wagner’s decisions as strategic
    when in fact they were based on an incomplete investigation.
    We disagree. Van Wagner’s explanation of his pre-trial
    decisions and the application of his strategy as the case
    unfolded before the jury was, as the trial court remarked in the
    post-conviction oral ruling, worthy of being “required reading
    in every law school trial practice class.” R. 6-16, at 25. Van
    Wagner’s theory of the defense was that S.L. fabricated the
    allegations. Fully aware that a young accuser in a sexual abuse
    case can be perceived sympathetically by the jury, he sought to
    demonstrate not that she was a liar but rather that she was not
    a reliable witness:
    [T]he core of the defense was that she’s not reliable.
    Not that she’s lying. … [M]y general approach is not
    to treat a young witness who claims to have been as-
    saulted … with attack mode but rather with, we
    need to feel sorry for her but we can’t rely on her.
    That’s where I really wanted to be. And sometimes
    … I’ll even say she believes it happened but that
    No. 20-2638                                                  33
    doesn’t mean it did, which is to give her emotional
    credibility but not factual credibility.
    R. 6-15, at 113. As part of this approach, he sought to show
    “both the incredulity of or … the unbelievability of her
    accusations given the physical layout [of the house] and the
    witnesses who were present. And also to show that she had a
    number of reasons why she may well have wanted to be out of
    the house and be … away from [Gilbreath].” R. 6-15, at 57–58.
    As for those latter reasons, he sought to show that she rebelled
    against Gilbreath as the disciplinarian and the person who was
    blocking her access to boyfriends. He explained that in
    attacking the credibility of a witness, he chose which avenues
    to use both before trial and as the case unfolded at trial. He
    was thus prepared with documentation of S.L.’s prior
    statements in case he decided to impeach her on that basis, and
    also sought to use the layout of the house combined with “the
    incredibly intimate proximity of various witnesses” to the site
    of alleged molestation to show that it was highly improbable
    that her version of events could have occurred and yet gone
    unnoticed by Patricia and Haiden. R. 6-15, at 58.
    He did in fact attempt to impeach S.L. with the different
    versions that she had given of Gilbreath’s conduct, beginning
    with the number of times that she alleged that he assaulted her.
    He was successful in showing that she disclaimed the
    statement recorded in Oleson’s first report that the abuse
    occurred only five or six times, and proved up that
    34                                                            No. 20-2638
    inconsistency with the stipulation regarding Oleson’s report.16
    But after the difficulty of questioning S.L. on that point, he
    stayed away from attempting to impeach her with prior
    inconsistent statements followed by a prove-up for fear that he
    would be perceived by the jury as “attacking” S.L. by
    “lock[ing] her in” with “lawyers questions” and saying, “didn’t
    you say this, and didn’t you say that.” R. 6-15, at 79.
    Primarily, though, he did not wish to detract from the
    extraordinary success he had in impeaching S.L. with the letter
    she wrote to her counselor:
    By the time she had finished giving her answers
    about the type written statement for the psycholo
    gist I didn’t feel that there was anything else I
    should do to give the chance to the State to
    rehabilitate her credibility because she basically said
    I didn’t write what I wrote. And that was something
    I could never have expected in trial and this is what
    I mean about focusing on what the witness is doing
    and saying. … I thought that by the time she had
    essentially and unbelievably denied typing the four
    page statement that she typed and saying the things
    she had put in there that at that point if there was
    ever going to be a jury that was going to have a
    problem with her credibility that was the moment.
    And then to go into other areas while certainly
    16
    Van Wagner also explained that he did not wish to have Oleson testify
    and did not wish to risk admitting her full reports because substantial parts
    of the reports and Oleson’s likely testimony would have been very harmful
    to Gilbreath’s case.
    No. 20-2638                                                   35
    scorched earth in nature, exhaustive in nature would
    … not discredit but would undercut … the visceral
    impact to the jury.
    R. 6-15, at 67. He felt that S.L. had “made herself out to be
    virtually delirious on the stand or incredible,” and that he did
    not wish to risk detracting from what he felt was Gilbreath’s
    “optimal position in front of the jury” by trying to prove up
    statements through witnesses who might be hostile to the
    defense. He had a file marked with S.L.’s prior statements, had
    them at the ready for cross-examination, and decided as a
    strategic matter not to prove up certain prior inconsistent
    statements. R. 6-15, at 63. He described his thought process:
    I knew in my opinion at that time my strategic view
    of the four page type written letter to the therapist
    was it was manna from heaven. It was a piece of
    gold. And … if we were ever going to get an
    acquittal it was going to be a, a fulcrum point. And
    so if you recall in my cross-examination I spent the
    first five to seven minutes … locking into the truth
    and the extent and the detail and the completeness
    and the absolute reliability of that statement without
    asking her about a single piece of its content. My
    intent was to finish my cross with that[.]
    R. 6-15, at 72. He then sought to have S.L. affirm the layout of
    the room and house and the location of the witnesses to show
    the improbability of her claim that the masturbation incident
    (among others) had occurred steps away from Patricia and in
    the same bed as Haiden without them noticing, before
    returning to the content of the letter. When he began
    36                                                  No. 20-2638
    questioning her about the content, he had not expected that she
    would begin to deny writing something that minutes earlier
    she had “been locked into committing that she had written the
    whole thing.” R. 6-15, at 73. This made her appear “delusional”
    in his view, and at that point, he moved away from individual
    impeachments so that he could focus on “getting as much of
    this deluded response out of her.” R. 6-15, at 73–74.
    In response to questions about various decisions he made
    during the trial, Van Wagner indicated that, although with the
    hindsight of knowing that his strategy did not carry the day
    with the jury he would prefer to have done things differently,
    he believed at the time that he had made the best possible
    decisions for Gilbreath’s defense. R. 6-15, at 66, 68–69.
    Counsel’s explanation of his trial decisions and strategy at the
    post-conviction hearing covered approximately seventy pages
    of transcript, and so far we have sketched out his strategy in
    only the broadest terms. Although we assess counsel’s
    performance as a whole, we must turn to Gilbreath’s particular
    claims of ineffective assistance and Van Wagner’s explanation
    in each instance before considering the whole.
    1.
    Gilbreath asserts that counsel was ineffective for failing to
    investigate S.L.’s claims that she contemporaneously disclosed
    the assaults to Aaron and Kayla, neglecting to interview them
    or present their testimony. Both Aaron and Kayla would have
    testified that S.L. never mentioned the assaults to them,
    impeaching S.L.’s claim that she reported the assaults to them
    and that they responded supportively. Van Wagner testified
    that he was aware that S.L. claimed she had disclosed the
    No. 20-2638                                                                 37
    assaults to Aaron and Kayla. Van Wagner did not believe that
    Aaron had anything useful to add to the trial, noting that he
    preferred to present the two closest eyewitnesses: Haiden, who
    shared a bed with S.L., and Patricia, who slept a few steps
    away. Van Wagner thought that a teenaged boy asleep in a
    bunk bed above S.L.’s futon would not have anything useful to
    offer. But more importantly, he testified that Aaron was living
    in Colorado at the time of the trial and was having legal
    problems of his own. Gilbreath did not want Aaron to return
    for the trial, and together Van Wagner and Gilbreath decided
    not to bring Aaron to Wisconsin for the trial. In fact, Aaron was
    on probation in Colorado and was not allowed to leave the
    state. As a result of Gilbreath’s wishes, counsel’s judgment and
    Aaron’s own legal difficulties, Van Wagner spoke to Aaron
    mostly about whether he could be forced by the State of
    Wisconsin to return to testify and did not go into detail with
    him regarding his knowledge of S.L.’s claims. See Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 691
     (“[W]hen a defendant has given counsel reason
    to believe that pursuing certain investigations would be
    fruitless or even harmful, counsel’s failure to pursue those
    investigations may not later be challenged as unreasonable.”).
    The post-conviction court concluded as a factual matter that
    Aaron was not available for trial and so gave no weight to any
    claims that counsel was ineffective for failing to call Aaron for
    any purpose.17 Gilbreath offers nothing to counter this factual
    finding, and we therefore cannot conclude that the state court
    17
    At most, Aaron would have testified that he did not witness any abuse,
    that he believed S.L. to have a character for untruthfulness, and that S.L. did
    not tell him about the assaults at the time they occurred.
    38                                                   No. 20-2638
    unreasonably applied Strickland in declining to find counsel
    ineffective in relation to Aaron’s possible testimony.
    As for Kayla, counsel believed that he spoke to all family
    members who attended the trial, some before and some during
    the trial. He could not specifically recall talking to Kayla about
    S.L.’s disclosure claim and he did not consider calling her to
    impeach S.L. about whether she disclosed the assaults at the
    time they were occurring. Although he could not recall making
    a decision specifically about objecting on hearsay grounds to
    S.L.’s testimony about her purported conversation with Kayla,
    he explained that his general practice was not to object unless
    he felt the testimony would hurt the case; he did not wish to
    give the jury the impression that he was seeking to prevent
    them from knowing the truth. He assumed from his failure to
    object that he did not believe at the time that he should. He
    also explained that he does not cross-examine on every topic,
    instead limiting himself to things that highlighted the areas
    most fertile in the case. And as we noted above, he sought not
    to show that S.L. was a liar but that she was unreliable, a
    reasonable strategy with a young accuser.
    Kayla would have testified that S.L. did not disclose the
    assaults to her and that she believed S.L. was not a truthful
    person. In denying the post-conviction motion, the state court
    credited Van Wagner’s testimony that he did not believe that
    third-party impeachment of S.L. was an effective tactic, and
    believed at the time of trial that it would have harmed
    Gilbreath’s case for several reasons, including by detracting
    from what defense counsel had already accomplished. Under
    Strickland, “a particular decision not to investigate must be
    directly assessed for reasonableness in all the circumstances,
    No. 20-2638                                                  39
    applying a heavy measure of deference to counsel’s
    judgments.” 
    466 U.S. at 691
    . Even if a decision not to further
    investigate Kayla was a mistake, that is not enough to
    characterize a lawyer’s judgment as ineffective assistance. See
    Makiel v. Butler, 
    782 F.3d 882
    , 901–02 (7th Cir. 2015) (a
    miscalculation constitutes deficient performance only where
    the miscalculation was objectively unreasonable). See also
    Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    690–91 (“[S]trategic choices made after
    less than complete investigation are reasonable precisely to the
    extent that reasonable professional judgments support the
    limitations on investigation.”). We cannot say that Van
    Wagner’s decision not to investigate Kayla further in light of
    what he already knew and in the context of his general strategy
    was objectively unreasonable. Nor can we say that the state
    court unreasonably applied Strickland in refusing to fault Van
    Wagner for this choice. See Yarborough v. Gentry, 
    540 U.S. 1
    , 8
    (2003) (even if an omission by counsel is inadvertent, relief is
    not automatic; the Sixth Amendment guarantees reasonable
    competence, not perfect advocacy judged with the benefit of
    hindsight). And as we note below, any failure to investigate
    Kayla further and present her testimony was not prejudicial.
    2.
    Gilbreath next contends that counsel was ineffective for
    failing to impeach S.L.’s testimony denying her motive to lie
    with her prior statements discussing her behavioral problems
    and Gilbreath’s interference with her dating. Specifically, he
    contends that counsel should have impeached S.L. regarding
    the inconsistency between her claim during the 2008 disclosure
    that the touching occurred only over her clothes, and her 2010
    disclosure where she reported touching under her clothing. But
    40                                                            No. 20-2638
    of course, counsel did ask S.L. about her claim in 2008 that the
    touching occurred only over her clothing, although he
    admittedly did not prove up this assertion by presenting
    Oleson’s written report on this point.18 Nevertheless, counsel
    explained that the decision not to prove up prior inconsistent
    statements was a strategic decision he made at the time of the
    trial. R. 6-15, at 63–64. He did not wish to detract from what he
    accomplished in showing her to be “virtually delirious” in her
    testimony about the letter to her therapist, and he generally did
    not like to impeach with and prove up prior inconsistent
    statements because such evidence “causes jurors eyes to glaze
    over and they don’t follow it.” R. 6-15, at 63. He had difficulty
    impeaching S.L. regarding the number of times the assaults
    occurred and decided against pushing the point again. He also
    held the view that “in general that kind of prove up is a
    wonderful law school or deposition technique but jurors just
    don’t want to follow it very well. They just tend to lose
    interest.” R. 6-15, at 64–65. Although in hindsight he regretted
    not proving up the inconsistent statement regarding touching
    under versus over the clothing, he made a decision at the time
    not to pursue it and detract from what he believed to be the
    zenith of the case. That decision was not an objectively
    unreasonable strategy, and as such, it cannot be characterized
    as ineffective assistance.
    18
    Counsel’s questioning on the under-versus-over-the-clothing issue was
    successful enough that the State sought to rehabilitate S.L. on this topic on
    re-direct examination. R. 6-11, at 218. The jury was instructed that sexual
    contact either directly or through the clothing qualifies as sexual abuse. R.
    6-14, at 154-55.
    No. 20-2638                                                              41
    Gilbreath also argued that counsel should have impeached
    S.L. regarding her motive to lie in 2010 when she denied that
    she was getting into trouble at home and denied that her
    parents objected to her relationship with Robert. Gilbreath lists
    a number of prior inconsistent statements that counsel could
    have used to impeach S.L. on these topics. We will not repeat
    our analysis regarding counsel’s strategic decisions generally
    not to impeach with prior inconsistent statements. We will add
    only that counsel was of the view that he thoroughly
    addressed these very topics when he questioned S.L. about the
    statements she wrote to her therapist, where she referred to
    herself as a “wild child,” and in the testimony of Gilbreath,
    Patricia and Haiden that S.L. was getting into serious trouble
    with Gilbreath frequently. He had also addressed the driver’s
    license issue, which he characterized as a “huge deal” to a
    teenager. But he did not wish to attack her further and risk the
    jury thinking, “[L]eave her alone for crying out loud. … [T]he
    poor girl is doing the best she can.” R. 6-15, at 78–79.19 See
    Bergmann v. McCaughtry, 
    65 F.3d 1372
    , 1380 (7th Cir. 1995)
    (deciding not to cross-examine a sympathetic victim/witness
    was well within the realm of sound trial strategy, and we will
    not, in hindsight, second-guess that decision). When asked
    about failing to impeach S.L. with her prior statements about
    her father’s dislike of Robert, counsel replied, “My answer is
    19
    Counsel also explained that he was very careful to avoid using
    impeachment materials from the interviews with Oleson and Safe Harbor
    for fear that the trial court would allow the entire documents be entered
    into evidence at the State’s request for completeness and context. He wished
    to avoid the entry into evidence of significant amounts of information that
    would have been adverse to Gilbreath’s case.
    42                                                 No. 20-2638
    the same. … I did what I did because I thought it was the best
    at the time,” explaining that he abandoned the idea of paper
    impeachments or collateral witness impeachments because S.L.
    had “self-impeached quite well.” R. 6-15, at 83. These were not
    objectively unreasonable decisions.
    3.
    Gilbreath next asserts counsel should have impeached S.L.
    with her failure to mention in her first disclosure the three
    specific, more graphic incidents that she described at trial.
    Asked about his failure to do so during the post-conviction
    hearing, Van Wagner explained his entire impeachment
    strategy and his decision to forgo this type of impeachment
    after he cross-examined S.L. regarding her letter to the
    therapist. R. 6-15, at 71–77. His explanation, some of which we
    quoted above, occupied five or six pages of the transcript, and
    was based on reasonable strategic decisions grounded in the
    facts of the case and the law, as the state court found, and
    requires no further analysis.
    4.
    This conclusion applies equally to counsel’s decisions not
    to call Aaron, Giovanni, Kayla, and Kayla’s mother Dawn to
    testify that they observed no sexual touching or suspicious
    conduct when in the presence of S.L. and Gilbreath, and in the
    case of the latter three witnesses, that they believed that S.L.
    had a reputation for untruthfulness. We have already
    addressed Aaron’s unavailability for trial, and need not
    address this claim further as it relates to him. In the case of
    Giovanni, counsel testified that no one had suggested to him
    prior to trial that Giovanni would have something helpful to
    No. 20-2638                                                   43
    say. See Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 691
     (whether investigation
    decisions are reasonable depends critically on information
    provided by the defendant). As with Aaron, Giovanni was in
    a bunk bed above S.L. and was not as direct a witness as
    Haiden or Patricia. Van Wagner did not believe that having
    Giovanni testify that he saw nothing would add anything to
    the testimony of Haiden and Patricia, characterizing his
    potential contributions as “negligible,” especially in
    comparison to Haiden who shared a bed with S.L. and said she
    saw nothing. R. 6-15, at 97. Although in hindsight, counsel
    thought it might have been better to call Aaron and Giovanni,
    at the time, he decided not to because “teenage boys sleep like
    rocks. They sleep through anything,” and because the jury
    knew that the children shared the room and yet nobody came
    forward and told investigators they witnessed anything. R. 6-
    15, at 98. Giovanni was two years younger than S.L., and so
    would have been seven years old when the abuse began. It is
    difficult to say that counsel made an objectively unreasonable
    decision in deciding not to interview a witness who would
    have been seven or eight years old and without a direct line of
    sight to the relevant events. In the end, Giovanni would have
    said only that he did not see anything amiss and that he
    believed S.L. to be untruthful. As the state court post-
    conviction court noted, it was “not particularly surprising” that
    after the jury believed S.L. and convicted Gilbreath, “family
    members who sided with the defendant came out of the
    woodwork to claim” that S.L. was a liar, but this was simply
    the same evidence the jury had already heard from different
    voices. R. 6-16, at 19. Counsel’s decisions not to have family
    members pile on with claims that S.L. had a character for
    44                                                  No. 20-2638
    untruthfulness or that they saw nothing amiss was a
    reasonable strategy at the time of the trial. See Bergmann, 
    65 F.3d at 1380
     (as a matter of trial strategy, counsel could well
    decide not to call family members as witnesses because family
    members can be easily impeached for bias).
    5.
    Finally, Gilbreath argues that counsel was ineffective
    because he failed to provide evidence of a motive for S.L. to
    fabricate the first disclosure in 2008, focusing instead on her
    motives at the time of the second disclosure in 2010. This gap
    was exploited by the prosecutor in questioning Patricia and in
    closing argument, according to Gilbreath. In particular, Van
    Wagner should have presented evidence that, in 2008, S.L. was
    involved with a friend of Aaron’s named Dustin, who was four
    years older than she, and that Gilbreath interfered with that
    relationship in the same way he interfered with her
    relationship with Robert in 2010.
    Van Wagner testified that he sought to present a motive
    that was the same throughout, namely that Gilbreath was a
    strict disciplinarian against whom S.L. rebelled. He testified
    that this motive was present “on a lesser scale in 2008 by all
    accounts that came in,” and he did not have much more to
    present as a motive for the first disclosure in 2008. R. 6-15, at
    86. He therefore presented S.L. as having the same motives to
    lie in 2008 as she had in 2010. He did not bring out evidence
    regarding Dustin specifically, but he did present evidence that
    Gilbreath was a strict disciplinarian both before he went to
    prison and when he came home from prison. Counsel was also
    wary of the dynamics in the courtroom during the presentation
    No. 20-2638                                                   45
    of motive evidence because the defense side of the room was
    full of Gilbreath’s relatives, and the other side held just a row
    and a half of members of S.L.’s foster family and someone from
    a support agency. He did not wish to get into an “internecin[e]
    family battle,” and did not have more evidence to add beyond
    the discipline evidence for a 2008 motive to lie. R. 6-15, at 85.
    Van Wagner’s explanation of his handling of the 2008
    motive to lie evidence is consistent with the testimony of both
    Gilbreath and Patricia at trial and at the post-conviction
    hearing. Both Patricia and Gilbreath professed not to know
    why S.L. would lie in 2008, R. 6-12, at 52 and R. 6-13 at 92, and
    Gilbreath testified that he did not understand that there was an
    issue with Dustin until after he was released from prison.
    R. 6-15, at 185. Gilbreath thus did not seek to limit S.L.’s
    relationship with Dustin until some time after his release, and
    in fact testified at trial that he did not really have problems
    with S.L.’s behavior before he went to prison. R. 6-15, at
    185–87; R. 6-13, at 90. Moreover, S.L.’s first disclosure came
    before Gilbreath’s release, and so the timeline did not support
    using her relationship with Dustin as a motive for lying about
    Gilbreath.
    Gilbreath also faults Van Wagner for failing to present
    specific instances of S.L.’s behavioral issues in the 2010 time
    frame in order to show her motive to lie. This evidence
    included S.L. writing a note at school critical of Gilbreath for
    telling her what to do when he was not her father; lying to
    Gilbreath about her self-inflicted wounds; lying about staying
    late at school for a school project when she was in fact meeting
    up with a boyfriend; and arguing with Gilbreath about her
    desire to take a two-week trip with Robert. But Van Wagner
    46                                                  No. 20-2638
    explained several times why he decided not to impeach S.L.
    with this type of evidence, and although he may have felt in
    hindsight that it would have been better or more prudent to
    employ this type of evidence, he repeatedly reaffirmed that he
    made the best decisions he could for Gilbreath at the time
    based on his judgment of how the trial was unfolding. Most
    importantly, he had placed before the jury S.L.’s own
    descriptions of her behavioral issues in the letter to her
    therapist. Once again, Van Wagner’s reasons for declining to
    present his type of evidence were the result of objectively
    reasonable strategic decisions supported by the facts and the
    law, and Gilbreath cannot show that the state court misapplied
    Strickland on this point. Yarborough, 
    540 U.S. at 9
     (“The issues
    counsel omitted were not so clearly more persuasive than
    those he discussed that their omission can only be attributed to
    a professional error of constitutional magnitude.”); Dunn v.
    Jess, 
    981 F.3d 582
    , 591 (7th Cir. 2020) (Strickland establishes a
    deferential presumption that strategic judgments made by
    defense counsel are reasonable); Yu Tian Li v. United States, 
    648 F.3d 524
    , 528 (7th Cir. 2011) (so long as an attorney articulates
    a strategic reason for a decision that was sound at the time it
    was made, the decision generally cannot support a claim of
    ineffective assistance of counsel).
    In sum, a petitioner’s burden in making a claim of
    ineffective assistance is to show “that counsel made errors so
    serious that counsel was not functioning as the ‘counsel’
    guaranteed the defendant by the Sixth Amendment.”
    Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 687
    . The state court did not unreasonably
    apply this standard in concluding that Gilbreath fell short of
    that mark.
    No. 20-2638                                                     47
    B.
    Gilbreath failed to demonstrate that the state court’s
    rejection of a claim of deficient performance was contrary to,
    or involved an unreasonable application of, clearly established
    federal law, or was based on an unreasonable determination of
    the facts in light of the evidence presented in the state court
    proceeding. That conclusion is sufficient to end this appeal, but
    for the sake of completeness, we turn to the question of
    prejudice, the second major prong of the Strickland analysis:
    With respect to prejudice, a challenger must
    demonstrate a reasonable probability that, but for
    counsel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different. A reasonable
    probability is a probability sufficient to undermine
    confidence in the outcome. It is not enough to show
    that the errors had some conceivable effect on the
    outcome of the proceeding. Counsel’s errors must be
    so serious as to deprive the defendant of a fair trial,
    a trial whose result is reliable.
    Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 104
     (internal citations and quotation marks
    omitted). Again, because we consider Gilbreath’s Strickland
    challenge in the context of a petition for a writ of habeas corpus,
    our review of the state court’s decision on prejudice is highly
    deferential. Gilbreath again falls short of the mark.
    The post-conviction court found that counsel’s decisions
    were the result of objectively reasonable strategic decisions
    except in a single instance related to counsel’s failure to notice
    that an interview with Oleson had been recorded. Gilbreath
    does not complain of this error on appeal, and in any case, the
    48                                                   No. 20-2638
    court found that it had no basis for concluding that Gilbreath
    was denied a fair trial with a reliable result as a result of that
    or any other error. The court of appeals also concluded there
    were no prejudicial errors in trial counsel’s performance:
    The matters that Gilbreath argues trial counsel
    should have investigated and used to impeach S.L.
    are the same matters we have discussed above [in
    rejecting Gilbreath’s claim under 
    Wis. Stat. § 752.35
    that the real controversy was not fully tried]. We
    have explained, however, that S.L.’s credibility was
    thoroughly impeached at trial and the new
    impeachment material would be merely cumulative.
    Therefore, there could be no prejudice to Gilbreath
    as a result of counsel’s alleged deficient
    performance, because the result of a new trial would
    be the same.
    State v. Gilbreath, 
    2018 WL 2347126
    , *4 (Wis. Ct. App. May 24,
    2018).
    Gilbreath takes issue with the court’s characterization of the
    additional impeachment material and other evidence as
    “cumulative,” contending that the evidence was actually
    corroborative, and maintaining that the court wrongly applied
    state rather than federal law in making that judgment. See State
    v. Gilbreath, 
    2018 WL 2347126
    , *3 (citing State v. McAlister, 
    911 N.W.2d 77
     (Wis. 2018)). Gilbreath objects to this application of
    McAlister because that case involved a claim of newly
    discovered evidence in the context of a motion for a new trial,
    rather than a claim for ineffective assistance of counsel. But the
    language he objects to in the court’s opinion is contained in the
    No. 20-2638                                                    49
    analysis of his state law claim for a new trial in the interest of
    justice where the real controversy was not tried. True, the court
    of appeals referred back to that analysis when it assessed the
    prejudice prong of the Strickland claim, but the court’s point
    was subtly different: in the Strickland analysis, the court found
    that S.L. had been so thoroughly impeached that additional
    impeachment evidence would not likely have affected the
    outcome of the trial.
    It does not matter whether the additional impeachment
    evidence is characterized as cumulative or corroborative;
    neither of the state courts found that there was a reasonable
    probability that, but for the omission of this evidence, the
    result of the proceeding would have been different. Indeed,
    counsel managed to place before the jury at least three
    different versions of the abuse that S.L. reported to authorities,
    social workers and her counselor, using her own words to
    demonstrate the inconsistencies. As the post-conviction court
    noted, counsel thoroughly succeeded in discrediting S.L.’s
    reliability as a witness with the cross-examination on the letter
    to her counselor; and counsel reasonably decided that
    additional evidence demonstrating unreliability or
    untruthfulness would have hurt rather than helped his case.
    The court agreed with counsel’s assessment. Gilbreath does not
    explain how the conclusion of the state court that there is not
    a reasonable probability that the result would have been
    altered by this additional evidence results from an
    unreasonable application of federal law.
    Gilbreath contends, nevertheless, that counsel’s failure to
    impeach S.L. on the same points we have already covered
    would have caused the jury to reassess her credibility.
    50                                                   No. 20-2638
    According to Gilbreath, the case was close, and the Wisconsin
    court failed to assess the missing evidence in light of the
    strengths and weaknesses of the State’s case. Evidence of his
    guilt was weak, Gilbreath asserts, and in a close case, the
    additional evidence would have made a difference to the
    outcome. As we noted above, the post-conviction court also
    presided over the original trial, and that judge concluded that
    there was no reasonable probability that, but for any error by
    counsel, the result would have been different. In our
    assessment of prejudice when the same judge presided over
    both the trial and the post-conviction hearing, “we cannot
    accept as conclusive the judge’s statement that the new
    evidence would not have made any difference to the outcome
    of the case.” Raygoza v. Hulick 
    474 F.3d 958
    , 964 (7th Cir. 2007).
    Nevertheless, “we naturally give great weight to the judge’s
    assessments, particularly on matters relating to the credibility
    of the witnesses who appeared.” 
    Id.
    At base, Gilbreath’s argument is that, in a credibility
    contest, counsel must employ scorched-earth tactics in
    attacking the credibility of the primary witness. But this
    argument gives no consideration to the risks of such a strategy.
    As trial counsel was well aware, there are significant down-
    sides to attacking a sympathetic young accuser or even being
    perceived as attacking her. In this instance, the accuser had
    been abandoned by her entire family after disclosing the abuse,
    and the courtroom was full of the defendant’s supporters.
    Counsel was fully aware of the tensions in the courtroom when
    he decided not to call additional witnesses or further impeach
    S.L. after he successfully impeached her with her own words
    in front of the jury, where she first took ownership of the letter
    No. 20-2638                                                    51
    to her therapist and then denied that she wrote the most
    significant parts of it, including substantial material that
    contradicted her testimony at trial on the very issues Gilbreath
    asserts were insufficiently challenged. In addition to the
    potential upside of the additional evidence, counsel and the
    Wisconsin courts noted that there were also significant risks
    and downsides, and Gilbreath’s arguments acknowledge none
    of those downsides. The judgments of the Wisconsin courts on
    prejudice are due deference.
    Finally, although Gilbreath faults the Wisconsin court for
    failing to consider the additional evidence in the context of the
    totality of the evidence before the jury, he fails to consider the
    effect of his own testimony as the only witness presented in the
    defense case. Gilbreath’s counsel, in attempting to make sense
    of the jury’s verdict, remarked that he was stunned by the
    verdict:
    [W]hat I did in this case didn’t work and it
    should’ve. It should’ve based on my eighty to ninety
    trials including twenty sexual assault trials on both
    sides.
    R. 6-15, at 115–16. In the end, counsel concluded, “if you ask
    me I’d say I think the jury just said we don’t believe Michael.”
    R. 6-15, at 117. Gilbreath fails to take into account that his
    testimony was the other half of the credibility contest, and his
    own lawyer believed that the jury simply did not believe his
    client even though the trial strategy he employed should have
    worked based on his extensive trial experience in sexual
    assault cases.
    52                                                  No. 20-2638
    Even if we ourselves were persuaded that Gilbreath had
    been prejudiced by his lawyer’s lapses (and again, there were
    no significant lapses), “a state court’s determination that a
    defendant was not prejudiced by his lawyer’s ineffectiveness
    is entitled to great weight in a federal habeas corpus
    proceeding.” Price v. Thurmer, 
    637 F.3d 831
    , 839 (7th Cir. 2011).
    We cannot conclude in the end that the state court’s ruling on
    prejudice was the result of an unreasonable application of
    clearly established federal law, or was based on an
    unreasonable determination of the facts.
    III.
    In granting the writ, the district court did not defer
    sufficiently to counsel and the state courts:
    [T]he Strickland standard must be applied with
    scrupulous care, lest “intrusive post-trial inquiry”
    threaten the integrity of the very adversary process
    the right to counsel is meant to serve. Strickland, 
    466 U.S., at
    689–690, 
    104 S.Ct. 2052
    . Even under de novo
    review, the standard for judging counsel’s
    representation is a most deferential one. Unlike a
    later reviewing court, the attorney observed the
    relevant proceedings, knew of materials outside the
    record, and interacted with the client, with opposing
    counsel, and with the judge. It is “all too tempting”
    to “second-guess counsel’s assistance after
    conviction or adverse sentence.” 
    Id., at 689
    , 
    104 S.Ct. 2052
    [.]
    Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 105
    . In this case, experienced counsel
    carefully decided when to press forward and when to hold
    No. 20-2638                                                  53
    back in light of a carefully constructed strategy that took into
    consideration everything from the sympathetic nature of the
    accuser to the mood in the courtroom. As Van Wagner
    perceived the case unfold and reached what he believed was
    the “zenith of … the strength of our case,” a “fulcrum point”
    that gave his client the best chance for an acquittal, he
    consciously resolved not to present the very evidence that
    Gilbreath argues he should have presented. We cannot say that
    the Wisconsin Court of Appeals unreasonably applied
    Strickland when it determined that counsel’s performance was
    neither constitutionally deficient nor prejudicial. We therefore
    reverse the judgment granting the writ.
    REVERSED.