Dulce Zaragoza v. Merrick B. Garland ( 2022 )


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  •                               In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    for the Seventh Circuit
    ____________________
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    DULCE M. ZARAGOZA,
    Petitioner,
    v.
    MERRICK B. GARLAND,
    Attorney General of the United States,
    Respondent.
    ____________________
    Petitions for Review of Orders of the
    Board of Immigration Appeals.
    No. A061-636-606
    ____________________
    ARGUED DECEMBER 3, 2020 — DECIDED NOVEMBER 8, 2022
    ____________________
    Before SYKES, Chief Judge, and FLAUM and ST. EVE, Circuit
    Judges.
    SYKES, Chief Judge. Dulce Zaragoza, a native and citizen of
    Mexico and a lawful permanent resident of the United
    States, pleaded guilty to the Indiana offense of criminal
    neglect of a dependent after locking her six-year-old son in a
    2                                       Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    closet for six hours. She was sentenced to one year in jail
    suspended to time served plus 30 days, with the remainder
    of the sentence to be served on probation. After completing
    her sentence, she traveled abroad and presented herself for
    admission when she returned. The Department of Home-
    land Security (“DHS”) found her inadmissible based on the
    neglect conviction, which the agency classified as a “crime
    involving moral turpitude.” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1182
    (a)(2)(A)(i)(I). She
    was placed in removal proceedings.
    Zaragoza fought removal on several grounds, with her
    arguments expanding as the proceedings progressed. Before
    the immigration judge, she argued that the Indiana neglect
    offense does not qualify as a crime involving moral turpi-
    tude. The judge disagreed and entered a removal order, and
    Zaragoza appealed to the Board of Immigration Appeals
    (“BIA” or “the Board”). In the meantime, she petitioned the
    state court to modify her sentence. Her purpose was to bring
    herself within the so-called “petty offense” exception to
    inadmissibility, which is available to first-time offenders
    sentenced to six months or less. 
    Id.
     § 1182(a)(2)(A)(ii)(II). The
    state court obliged and reduced her one-year sentence to
    179 days. With that order in hand, Zaragoza argued before
    the BIA that Indiana’s neglect offense is not a crime involv-
    ing moral turpitude, and regardless, the petty-offense excep-
    tion applies.
    The BIA rejected both arguments, agreeing with the im-
    migration judge that the Indiana offense is categorically a
    crime involving moral turpitude, and further holding that
    the sentence-modification order was not effective to estab-
    lish Zaragoza’s eligibility for the petty-offense exception. For
    the latter conclusion, the Board relied on a recent decision of
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                       3
    the Attorney General declaring that state-court sentence-
    modification orders are effective for immigration purposes
    only if based on a legal defect in the underlying criminal
    proceeding. Matter of Thomas & Thompson (“Thomas”), 
    27 I. & N. Dec. 674
    , 690 (Att’y Gen. 2019).
    Zaragoza sought reconsideration, this time adding two
    more arguments: (1) the phrase “crime involving moral
    turpitude” is unconstitutionally vague; and (2) the Attorney
    General’s decision in Thomas is impermissibly retroactive as
    applied to her. The BIA disagreed on both counts. Zaragoza
    petitioned for review in this court, reprising the entire array
    of arguments she presented to the Board.
    We agree with the BIA’s resolution of all issues but one:
    applying Thomas in Zaragoza’s case is an impermissibly
    retroactive application of a new rule. We therefore remand
    to the BIA for further proceedings consistent with this
    opinion.
    I. Background
    After emigrating from her native Mexico, Zaragoza set-
    tled in Indiana with her three children and in August 2011
    became a lawful permanent resident. On October 9, 2013, she
    punished her six-year-old son by barricading him in a closet
    while she was at work. She left him with nothing except a
    cup of water, a hot-dog bun with ketchup on it, and a bowl
    to urinate in if needed. After instructing her older son not to
    release the younger boy from the closet, she left the house.
    The boy remained in confinement for six hours.
    Zaragoza was charged in state court with neglect of a de-
    pendent in violation of Indiana Code § 35-46-1-4(a)(2), which
    makes it unlawful for “[a] person having the care of a de-
    4                                           Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    pendent … [to] knowingly or intentionally … abandon[] or
    cruelly confine[] the dependent.” Though the offense was a
    Class D felony, id. § 35-46-1-4(a) (2013), 1 punishable by a
    term of imprisonment of up to three years, id. § 35-50-2-7(a),
    Zaragoza entered into a plea agreement pursuant to a statute
    that permitted the court to enter judgment for a Class A
    misdemeanor, id. § 35-5-2-7(c), punishable by a maximum
    term of imprisonment of one year, id. § 35-50-3-2. On
    March 31, 2014, a state-court judge approved the plea
    agreement, accepted Zaragoza’s guilty plea, and sentenced
    her to one year in jail suspended to time served plus 30 days,
    with the remainder of the one-year term to be served on
    probation, and a $50 fine. She completed her sentence and
    was discharged from supervision in March 2015.
    A few months later, Zaragoza traveled abroad. On July 7,
    2015, she returned through Chicago and presented herself
    for inspection as a returning lawful permanent resident.
    Customs officials discovered her neglect conviction and
    paroled her into the United States in anticipation of removal
    proceedings. On August 6 DHS initiated removal proceed-
    ings based on her neglect conviction, which the agency
    classified as a “crime involving moral turpitude,” making
    her inadmissible under § 1182(a)(2)(A)(i)(I).
    Zaragoza moved to terminate the proceedings, arguing
    that neglect of a dependent is not a crime involving moral
    turpitude. An immigration judge disagreed, concluding that
    Indiana’s neglect offense is a crime involving moral turpi-
    tude under the categorical approach as explained in the
    1Indiana now punishes the base neglect offense as a Level 6 felony. IND.
    CODE § 35-46-1-4(a) (2021).
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                       5
    BIA’s decision in Matter of Silva-Trevino, 
    26 I. & N. Dec. 826
    ,
    830 (B.I.A. 2016). The judge denied Zaragoza’s motion and
    ordered her removed.
    Zaragoza sought review in the BIA. While her appeal
    was pending, she petitioned the state court to modify her
    sentence to 179 days in prison. That was an odd request on
    the surface, not least because Zaragoza had long since
    completed her sentence. But her purpose was apparent in
    light of the removal peril she faced. As a first-time offender,
    if her sentence was not “in excess of 6 months,” she would
    qualify for the petty-offense exception to inadmissibility
    under § 1182(a)(2)(A)(ii)(II). The prosecutor approved
    Zaragoza’s request, and on February 13, 2019, the state court
    entered an order modifying her sentence to 179 days sus-
    pended, with all terms and financial obligations satisfied.
    Back before the BIA, Zaragoza reiterated her position
    that the Indiana neglect offense is not a crime involving
    moral turpitude, but she now also claimed that the petty-
    offense exception lifted the inadmissibility bar. The BIA
    rejected both arguments. In a decision issued on
    November 14, 2019, the Board first agreed with the immigra-
    tion judge’s ruling that the neglect offense is categorically a
    crime of moral turpitude. Turning to the petty-offense
    exception, the Board explained that under the Attorney
    General’s recent decision in Thomas, issued just a few weeks
    earlier, the state court’s sentence-modification order had no
    effect for immigration purposes because it was not based on
    a procedural or substantive defect in the underlying criminal
    proceeding. Zaragoza’s eligibility thus turned on her origi-
    nal sentence, not her sentence as modified. Because she was
    originally sentenced to one year in prison, she did not
    6                                       Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    qualify for the exception. The Board dismissed her appeal,
    and Zaragoza petitioned for review of that order.
    In the meantime, she asked the BIA to reconsider its deci-
    sion. Her motion added two new arguments. She now
    claimed that the statutory phrase “crime involving moral
    turpitude” is unconstitutionally vague. She also argued that
    applying the Attorney General’s decision in Thomas to her
    amounted to an impermissibly retroactive application of a
    new rule.
    The Board denied the reconsideration motion, standing
    by its decision that the Indiana neglect offense is a crime
    involving moral turpitude and rejecting the new vagueness
    challenge to the statute. The Board also rejected Zaragoza’s
    claim that applying Thomas in her case is an impermissibly
    retroactive application of a new rule. Zaragoza petitioned for
    review of the BIA’s second order, and we consolidated the
    two petitions. See 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (b)(6).
    II. Discussion
    Zaragoza reprises the full assortment of legal challenges
    that she raised before the agency. Some of the issues are
    complex, and two have attracted support from amici curiae.
    For ease of presentation, we separate them into two groups.
    In the first group are arguments pertaining to the mean-
    ing and application of § 1182(a)(2)(A)(i)(I)—specifically,
    whether the phrase “crime involving moral turpitude” is
    unconstitutionally vague and whether Indiana’s neglect
    offense qualifies as such a crime under the categorical ap-
    proach and the BIA’s decision in Silva-Trevino. In the second
    group are claims pertaining to the petty-offense exception,
    including Zaragoza’s arguments that the Attorney General’s
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                                  7
    decision in Thomas is wrong as a matter of law and not
    entitled to deference and is impermissibly retroactive as
    applied to her.
    Because these are legal issues, our standard of review is
    de novo, Meraz-Saucedo v. Rosen, 
    986 F.3d 676
    , 684 (7th Cir.
    2021), with one important qualifier. We defer to the agency’s
    reasonable interpretation of the immigration laws in its
    precedential decisions and also its “[n]on-precedential
    decisions that rely on applicable Board precedent.” Cano-
    Oyarzabal v. Holder, 
    774 F.3d 914
    , 916 (7th Cir. 2014).
    A. Crime Involving Moral Turpitude
    1. Unconstitutional Vagueness
    Zaragoza begins with the argument that the statutory
    phrase “crime involving moral turpitude” is unconstitution-
    ally vague. 2 She primarily relies on a trio of recent Supreme
    Court decisions addressing vagueness challenges to the
    definitions of “crime of violence” and “violent felony” in
    statutes that use these terms to denote certain convictions
    that carry sentencing and immigration consequences. See
    United States v. Davis, 
    139 S. Ct. 2319
     (2019) (residual clause
    defining “crime of violence,” 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    )); Sessions v.
    Dimaya, 
    138 S. Ct. 1204
     (2018) (residual clause defining
    “crime of violence,” 
    18 U.S.C. § 16
    ); Johnson v. United States,
    
    576 U.S. 591
     (2015) (residual clause defining “violent felony,”
    
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (e)).
    2 Zaragoza purports to challenge the statute both facially and as applied,
    but she does not delineate any ground on which the phrase “crime
    involving moral turpitude” is vague only as applied to her. Rather, her
    argument rests entirely on her view that the phrase is inherently vague.
    We therefore construe this as a facial challenge.
    8                                       Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    Zaragoza’s challenge immediately runs headlong into
    Jordan v. De George, 
    341 U.S. 223
    , 232 (1951), a much earlier
    decision specifically holding that the phrase “crime involv-
    ing moral turpitude” as used in immigration law—there, the
    Immigration Act of 1917—is not unconstitutionally vague.
    Jordan squarely controls here.
    Zaragoza responds that Jordan is no longer authoritative
    because it did not consider the categorical way in which the
    BIA and the courts now classify convictions for immigration
    and sentencing purposes. But she challenges the language of
    the statute, not the decision method courts use to classify
    convictions for these purposes. And Jordon squarely holds
    that the statutory phrase “crime involving moral turpitude”
    as used in immigration law is not unconstitutionally vague.
    Zaragoza also argues that Jordan may be disregarded be-
    cause it is out of sync with the Court’s intervening decisions
    in Johnson, Dimaya, and Davis. That argument cannot succeed
    in the court of appeals. Jordan is binding on us until the
    Supreme Court says otherwise. State Oil Co. v. Kahn, 
    522 U.S. 3
    , 20 (1997) (“[I]t is this Court’s prerogative alone to overrule
    one of its precedents.”). The Court has repeatedly reaffirmed
    this point: “If a precedent of this Court has direct application
    in a case, yet appears to rest on reasons rejected in some
    other line of decisions, the Court of Appeals should follow
    the case which directly controls, leaving to this Court the
    prerogative of overruling its own decisions.” Agostini v.
    Felton, 
    521 U.S. 203
    , 237–38 (1997) (quotation marks and
    alteration omitted).
    Accordingly, we and other courts have already rejected
    post-Johnson vagueness challenges to the phrase “crime
    involving moral turpitude.” Dominguez-Pulido v. Lynch,
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                          9
    
    821 F.3d 837
    , 842–43 (7th Cir. 2016); see also Islas-Veloz v.
    Whitaker, 
    914 F.3d 1249
    , 1250 (9th Cir. 2019) (“The Court’s
    more recent decisions in Johnson and Dimaya did not reopen
    inquiry into the constitutionality of the phrase.”); Moreno v.
    Att’y Gen., 
    887 F.3d 160
    , 166 (3d Cir. 2018); Boggala v. Sessions,
    
    866 F.3d 563
    , 570 (4th Cir. 2017). We do so again here.
    2. Neglect of a Dependent Is a Crime Involving Moral
    Turpitude
    Zaragoza next challenges the Board’s conclusion that the
    Indiana neglect offense qualifies as a crime involving moral
    turpitude. Like other statutory contexts in which the agency
    must classify convictions for immigration purposes, the
    categorical approach applies to this inquiry. See Silva-Trevino,
    26 I. & N. at 830; see also Garcia-Martinez v. Barr, 
    921 F.3d 674
    ,
    679 (7th Cir. 2019) (“Both Chevron deference and the sound-
    ness of the Board’s reasoning in Silva-Trevino … thus lead us
    to adopt that framework for characterizing crimes of moral
    turpitude in immigration cases.”).
    Applying that framework, we examine whether the statu-
    tory definition of the offense fits within the “generic” defini-
    tion of a crime involving moral turpitude. Silva-Trevino, 26 I.
    & N. at 831. The comparison focuses on “the minimum
    conduct that has a realistic probability of being prosecuted
    under the statute of conviction, rather than on the facts
    underlying the [noncitizen’s] particular violation of that
    statute.” 
    Id.
     (citing Moncrieffe v. Holder, 
    569 U.S. 184
    , 190–91
    (2013)); see also Garcia-Martinez, 921 F.3d at 679. If Zaragoza
    can show that the state courts have applied the neglect
    statute to conduct that does not come within the generic
    definition, then the offense is not categorically a crime
    involving moral turpitude. See Moncrieffe, 
    569 U.S. at
    206
    10                                    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    (explaining that the noncitizen has the burden of demon-
    strating that the state law applies to more conduct than the
    generic offense covers); see also Garcia-Martinez, 921 F.3d at
    679.
    We begin with the generic definition of a “crime involv-
    ing moral turpitude,” acknowledging (as we must) that the
    “moral turpitude label” is “an odd match for the categorical
    approach.” Garcia-Martinez, 921 F.3d at 679. Though the
    phrase is not defined in statute, we give Chevron deference to
    decisions of the BIA reasonably interpreting that term. Cano-
    Oyarzabal, 774 F.3d at 916. In Silva-Trevino the Board held
    that a crime involving moral turpitude has “two essential
    elements: reprehensible conduct and a culpable mental
    state.” 26 I. & N. Dec. at 834. For conduct to be “reprehensi-
    ble,” it must be “inherently base, vile, or depraved, and
    contrary to the accepted rules of morality and the duties
    owed between persons or to society in general.” Id. at 833
    (quotation marks omitted). A culpable mental state means
    “some degree of scienter, either specific intent, deliberate-
    ness, willfulness, or recklessness.” Matter of Ortega-Lopez,
    
    27 I. & N. Dec. 382
    , 385 (B.I.A. 2018) (quoting Matter of
    Louissaint, 
    24 I. & N. Dec. 754
    , 757 (B.I.A. 2009)).
    We compare that definition with the Indiana neglect of-
    fense as defined by statute and as applied by the Indiana
    courts. Garcia-Martinez, 921 F.3d at 680. The relevant part of
    Indiana’s neglect statute provides: “A person having the care
    of a dependent … who knowingly or intentionally … aban-
    dons or cruelly confines the dependent … commits neglect
    of a dependent.” § 35-46-1-4(a)(2). Indiana courts have
    defined “cruelly confines” as “confinement which is likely to
    result in a harm such as disfigurement, mental distress,
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                       11
    extreme pain or hurt, or gross degradation, and yet does not
    necessarily endanger the dependent’s life or health.”
    Hartbarger v. State, 
    555 N.E.2d 485
    , 487 (Ind. Ct. App. 1990);
    Demontigney v. State, 
    593 N.E.2d 1270
    , 1272 (Ind. Ct. App.
    1992) (applying the Hartbarger standard).
    So defined, the Indiana neglect offense categorically
    matches both elements of the generic definition of a “crime
    involving moral turpitude.” First, and more straightforward-
    ly, the offense requires a sufficiently culpable mental state.
    The Indiana statute requires intentional or knowing conduct,
    and the generic crime involving moral turpitude can be
    established by “specific intent, deliberateness, willfulness, or
    recklessness.” Ortega-Lopez, 27 I. & N. Dec. at 385.
    Second, the neglect offense requires “reprehensible con-
    duct.” Abandoning or cruelly confining a dependent, as the
    Indiana courts interpret this offense, qualifies as “inherently
    base, vile, or depraved, and contrary to the accepted rules of
    morality and the duties owed between persons or to society
    in general.” Silva-Trevino, 26 I. & N. Dec. at 833 (quotation
    marks omitted).
    Zaragoza emphasizes that the neglect offense does not
    require proof of conduct that endangers the dependent’s life
    or health, see Hartbarger, 
    555 N.E.2d at 487
    , which she be-
    lieves makes the Indiana offense broader than the generic
    definition of a crime involving moral turpitude. We disa-
    gree. Under the Hartbarger standard, the offender’s conduct
    must be “likely to result in a harm such as disfigurement,
    mental distress, extreme pain or hurt, or gross degradation.”
    
    Id.
     A person who exposes a dependent child to that degree
    of risk by abandoning or cruelly confining him has engaged
    in reprehensible conduct.
    12                                          Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    Zaragoza further contends that merely causing a child
    “mental distress” is not an act of moral turpitude. But the
    reference to “mental distress” here must be read in context.
    Hartbarger mentions mental distress in a list of risks that
    includes “disfigurement,” “extreme pain or hurt,” and
    “gross degradation.” 
    Id.
     These are all very serious harms,
    which implies that the inclusion of “mental distress” is
    understood to encompass only the risk of severe emotional
    trauma. See also State v. Downey, 
    476 N.E.2d 121
    , 123 (Ind.
    1985) (“The purpose of [§ 35-46-1-4(a)(1)] … is to authorize
    the intervention of the police power to prevent harmful
    consequences and injury to dependents.”).
    Additionally, as the BIA correctly recognized, Zaragoza
    has failed to demonstrate that there is a “realistic probabil-
    ity” that the neglect statute will be applied to actions causing
    only minor mental distress, rather than conduct that is
    “inherently base, vile, or depraved.” Silva-Trevino, 26 I. & N.
    Dec. at 831, 833 (quotation marks omitted). She points to her
    own conviction, which she claims did not involve conduct
    that is inherently base, vile, or depraved. We disagree.
    Zaragoza barricaded her six-year-old son in a closet using
    large items of furniture and leaving him nothing but water, a
    hot-dog bun with ketchup, and a bowl to urinate in, and she
    then left her house for six hours. This is undoubtedly “con-
    trary to the accepted rules of morality and the duties owed
    between persons.” Id. at 833 (quotation marks omitted). 3
    3 To be clear, we examine the facts of the underlying conviction for the
    limited purpose of rejecting Zaragoza’s argument that the Indiana
    neglect offense is categorically overbroad.
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                        13
    Zaragoza also points to the specific conduct at issue in
    Hartbarger and in Scruggs v. State, 
    883 N.E.2d 189
    , 190 (Ind.
    Ct. App. 2008). The facts of those cases, she argues, establish
    that the Indiana neglect statute sweeps more broadly that
    the generic definition of a crime involving moral turpitude.
    Notably, however, in both cases the defendants’ convictions
    were reversed based on insufficient evidence. Hartbarger,
    
    555 N.E.2d at 487
    ; Scruggs, 
    883 N.E.2d at 191
    . No matter,
    Zaragoza says, because the categorical approach examines
    “the minimum conduct that has a realistic probability of
    being prosecuted under the statute of conviction.” Silva-
    Trevino, 26 I. & N. Dec. at 831 (emphasis added). Because the
    defendants in Hartbarger and Scruggs were prosecuted for
    neglect of a dependent, she insists that the specific conduct
    at issue in both cases is relevant to the “realistic probability”
    inquiry even though it was insufficient to support their
    convictions.
    The better reading of Silva-Trevino is that the realistic-
    probability principle considers the minimum conduct that
    realistically could be successfully prosecuted under the statute
    in question. Silva-Trevino relied on the Supreme Court’s
    decision in Moncrieffe, which explained that the categorical
    approach examines “the minimum conduct criminalized by
    the state statute” and requires a showing of “a realistic
    probability … that the State would apply its statute” to the
    specified conduct. 
    569 U.S. at 191
     (emphases added) (quota-
    tion marks omitted); see also Matter of Chairez-Castrejon, 
    26 I. & N. Dec. 349
    , 356 (B.I.A. 2014) (applying the Moncrieffe rule
    only to successful prosecutions). In other words, the Su-
    preme Court’s realistic-probability test, which Silva-Trevino
    incorporates, considers how state law is applied by state
    courts, not prosecutors. Gonzales v. Duenas-Alvarez, 
    549 U.S. 14
                                         Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    183, 193 (2007) (explaining that to show a realistic probabil-
    ity, an offender “must at least point to his own case or other
    cases in which the state courts in fact did apply the statute in
    the special (nongeneric) manner for which he argues”).
    This understanding of Moncrieffe and Silva-Trevino com-
    ports with well-established background norms. Prosecutors
    are not expositors of law—courts are, which is why we defer
    to state courts in understanding the content of state law. Erie
    R.R. Co. v. Tompkins, 
    304 U.S. 64
    , 78 (1938). Because the state
    appellate court held that the specific conduct in Hartbarger
    and Scruggs did not violate the neglect statute, those cases do
    not help Zaragoza here.
    Zaragoza also likens the Indiana neglect statute to other
    state statutes that have been held not to constitute crimes
    involving moral turpitude. Her comparators, however, are
    inapt. For example, she points to a Fifth Circuit case holding
    that a Texas child-abandonment statute is not a crime in-
    volving moral turpitude. Rodriguez-Castro v. Gonzales,
    
    427 F.3d 316
    , 324 (5th Cir. 2005). But the Texas statute penal-
    ized mere negligence, which is not a sufficient mental state
    of culpability to qualify as a crime involving moral turpi-
    tude. 
    Id.
     at 322–23. As we’ve explained, the Indiana neglect
    statute requires intentional or knowing wrongdoing, which
    squarely falls within the generic definition of a crime involv-
    ing moral turpitude.
    In another of Zaragoza’s examples, the BIA held that
    simple battery under California law is not a crime involving
    moral turpitude because it requires no more than an inten-
    tional “touching” of another without consent. In re Sanudo,
    
    23 I. & N. Dec. 968
    , 972 (B.I.A. 2006). Indiana’s neglect
    statute, by contrast, requires a likelihood of “disfigurement,
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                               15
    mental distress, extreme pain or hurt, or gross degradation.”
    Hartbarger, 
    555 N.E.2d at 487
    . The statute thus covers a
    narrower and more serious swath of conduct than the
    California battery statute. 4
    In sum, as interpreted and applied by the state courts, the
    Indiana neglect statute requires proof that the defendant
    intentionally or knowingly abandoned or cruelly confined a
    dependent in such a way that will likely result in “disfig-
    urement, mental distress, extreme pain or hurt, or gross
    degradation.” 
    Id.
     We agree with the BIA that this offense is
    categorically a crime involving moral turpitude. Accord
    Hernandez-Perez v. Holder, 
    569 F.3d 345
    , 348 (8th Cir. 2009)
    (concluding that a similar child-endangerment statute under
    Iowa law is a crime involving moral turpitude).
    B. Petty-Offense Exception
    Although the Indiana neglect conviction qualifies as a
    crime involving moral turpitude, the inadmissibility bar is
    lifted for first-time offenders like Zaragoza if the crime in
    question was punishable by one year or less and the sen-
    tence did not exceed six months. More specifically, Zaragoza
    4 Zaragoza also criticizes the BIA and the immigration judge for relying
    on Matter of Leal, 
    26 I. & N. Dec. 20
     (B.I.A. 2012), which held that an
    Arizona endangerment statute qualifies as a crime involving moral
    turpitude. She correctly points out that the Arizona and Indiana crimes
    are different in two ways: the Arizona offense requires a higher risk of
    serious harm, while the Indiana offense requires a more culpable mental
    state. The immigration judge simply balanced the difference. We share
    Zaragoza’s skepticism of this approach. Nonetheless, as explained above,
    our independent application of the categorical approach confirms that
    the Indiana neglect offense is categorically a crime involving moral
    turpitude.
    16                                              Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    is not inadmissible based on her neglect conviction if (1) “the
    maximum penalty possible for the crime … did not exceed
    imprisonment for one year” and (2) she “was not sentenced
    to a term of imprisonment in excess of 6 months (regardless
    of the extent to which the sentence was ultimately execut-
    ed).” § 1182(a)(2)(A)(ii)(II).
    It’s undisputed that Zaragoza satisfies the first require-
    ment. The neglect offense normally carries a maximum
    penalty of up to three years in prison, but she pleaded guilty
    pursuant to a statute that permitted the court to enter judg-
    ment for a Class A misdemeanor, which carries a maximum
    penalty of one year of imprisonment. IND. CODE § 35-50-3-2.
    And indeed, the judgment reflects that she was convicted of
    the misdemeanor offense. 5
    The dispute here centers on the second requirement. The
    exception applies only if the offender was sentenced to a
    term of six months or less. Based on Zaragoza’s original
    sentence, she is clearly ineligible. She was sentenced to one
    year of imprisonment suspended to time served plus
    30 days. The suspension has no effect on the analysis. As
    defined in the Immigration and Nationality Act (“INA” or
    “the Act”), “[a]ny reference to a term of imprisonment or a
    sentence … is deemed to include the period of incarceration
    or confinement ordered by a court of law regardless of any
    suspension of the imposition or execution of that imprison-
    ment or sentence in whole or in part.” 8 U.S.C.
    5 In its initial decision, the BIA incorrectly stated that because the offense
    is normally a Class D felony, which carries a three-year maximum, the
    petty-offense exception is inapplicable. The Board abandoned this
    reasoning in its decision denying Zaragoza’s motion to reconsider.
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                        17
    § 1101(a)(48)(B) (emphases added). The petty-offense excep-
    tion itself contains similar “regardless” language: the excep-
    tion applies only if the offender’s sentence “was not … in
    excess of 6 months (regardless of the extent to which the
    sentence was ultimately executed).” Id. § 1182(a)(2)(A)(ii)(II)
    (emphasis added).
    But what about the sentence-modification order? Recall
    that in February 2019 while her appeal was pending before
    the BIA, Zaragoza sought and obtained an order from a state
    judge reducing her one-year sentence to 179 days. At the
    time BIA precedent recognized state-court sentence-
    modification orders as effective for immigration purposes.
    See Matter of Cota-Vargas, 
    23 I. & N. Dec. 849
    , 852 (B.I.A. 2005)
    (holding that an immigration court must give full faith and
    credit to a state-court decision modifying a sentence). Ac-
    cordingly, Zaragoza asked the BIA to evaluate her eligibility
    for the petty-offense exception based on her sentence as
    modified.
    The BIA did not rule on her appeal until nine months af-
    ter she had obtained the sentence-modification order. By
    then the Attorney General had issued his decision in Thomas,
    overruling Cota-Vargas and holding that state-court sentence-
    modification orders are effective for immigration purposes
    only if based on a procedural or substantive defect in the
    underlying criminal proceeding. Thomas, 27 I. & N. Dec. at
    674. Zaragoza’s sentence modification was not based on
    such a defect. Applying Thomas, the Board declined to give it
    effect for purposes of evaluating her eligibility for the petty-
    offense exception. Because Zaragoza’s original sentence
    exceeded six months, the Board found her ineligible for the
    exception.
    18                                      Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    Zaragoza attacks this ruling on several grounds. She first
    argues that the Attorney General’s decision in Thomas is not
    entitled to deference and is wrong as a matter of law. Alter-
    natively, she argues that even if Thomas correctly interpreted
    the relevant statutes, the decision cannot be applied to her
    because she reasonably relied on the BIA’s preexisting
    rules—namely, Cota-Vargas. Applying Thomas to her, she
    argues, would be a manifestly unjust retroactive application
    of a new rule.
    1. Thomas Is Entitled to Deference
    The pre-Thomas legal landscape was a patchwork of in-
    consistent rules regarding the immigration consequences of
    state-court orders altering a criminal sentence. If a state court
    vacated a conviction for reasons other than a defect in the
    criminal proceeding, then the immigration consequences
    remained fixed to the original conviction and sentence.
    Matter of Pickering, 
    23 I. & N. Dec. 621
    , 624 (B.I.A. 2003). But
    if a state court modified a sentence, then the immigration
    consequences were fixed to the new order. Cota-Vargas, 23 I.
    & N. Dec. at 852; In re Song, 
    23 I. & N. Dec. 173
    , 174 (B.I.A.
    2001). If a state court clarified a sentence, then the immigra-
    tion judge was to consider several characteristics of the state-
    court order before deciding whether immigration conse-
    quences should attach to the original sentence or the clarifi-
    cation order. Matter of Estrada, 
    26 I. & N. Dec. 749
    , 755–56
    (B.I.A. 2016).
    These inconsistencies, coupled with the perception that
    state courts were using sentence modifications to circumvent
    federal immigration law, led the Attorney General to step in.
    In May 2019 he directed the BIA to refer two pending cases
    to him for a clarifying opinion. Thomas, 27 I. & N. Dec. at 674.
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                     19
    We pause here for a bit of background on the two cases
    the Attorney General directed the BIA to send. Michael
    Vernon Thomas, a citizen of Trinidad and Tobago, and
    Joseph Lloyd Thompson, a citizen of Jamaica, were convict-
    ed in unrelated state-court proceedings of the Georgia crime
    of “family violence battery” and were sentenced to
    12 months of imprisonment. Id. at 678. Years later, long after
    they had completed their sentences, DHS placed them in
    removal proceedings as “aggravated felons” because each
    man “had been convicted of a ‘crime of violence’ for which
    the ‘term of imprisonment [was] at least one year.’” Id.
    (quoting 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43)(F)).
    While their removal proceedings were pending, Thomas
    and Thompson returned to state court and obtained orders
    reducing their sentences to slightly under 12 months. 
    Id.
     at
    678–79. The modification orders were not based on any
    defect in the underlying criminal proceedings, but Thomas
    and Thompson argued in their removal proceedings that
    because their sentences had been reduced to less than one
    year, they were no longer removable as aggravated felons.
    After directing the BIA to refer the cases, the Attorney
    General invited the parties and any interested amici to
    submit briefs regarding the effect of state-court sentence-
    modification orders for immigration purposes. 
    Id. at 674
    .
    On October 25, 2019, the Attorney General issued his de-
    cision overruling Cota-Vargas, Song, and Estrada and holding
    that state-court sentence-modification orders “have no effect
    for immigration purposes if based on reasons unrelated to
    the merits of the underlying criminal proceeding, such as
    rehabilitation or the avoidance of immigration consequenc-
    es.” 
    Id.
    20                                     Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    The decision largely flowed from the definitions of “con-
    viction” and “term of imprisonment” in the INA:
    (A) The term “conviction” means, with respect
    to an alien, a formal judgment of guilt of the al-
    ien entered by a court or, if adjudication has
    been withheld, where—
    (i) a judge or jury has found the alien guilty
    or the alien has entered a plea of guilty or
    nolo contendere or has admitted sufficient
    facts to warrant a finding of guilt, and
    (ii) the judge has ordered some form of
    punishment, penalty, or restraint on the al-
    ien’s liberty to be imposed.
    (B) Any reference to a term of imprisonment or a
    sentence with respect to an offense is deemed to
    include the period of incarceration or confine-
    ment ordered by a court of law regardless of
    any suspension of the imposition or execution
    of that imprisonment or sentence in whole or
    in part.
    
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(48) (emphases added).
    Anchoring his analysis in the text of these definitions, the
    Attorney General began with an uncontroversial observa-
    tion: “An alien plainly has been convicted under the INA
    when a court has entered ‘a formal judgment of guilt,’ and
    he has received a sentence when the court orders a ‘period of
    incarceration or confinement,’ no matter whether the sen-
    tence [has been] executed.” Thomas, 27 I. & N. Dec. at 680–81.
    In other words, by virtue of the “regardless” clause in the
    definition, the terms “conviction” and “term of imprison-
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                      21
    ment” refer to the original conviction and sentence notwith-
    standing any suspension of the sentence. The “regardless”
    clause, the Attorney General reasoned, also implied that
    “other post-sentencing events—such as modifications or
    clarifications—should not be relevant under the immigration
    laws.” Id. at 682.
    The Attorney General then looked to the statutory histo-
    ry to confirm this implication, noting that § 1101(a)(48) was
    enacted as part of the Illegal Immigration Reform and
    Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 in response to deci-
    sions of the BIA holding that certain suspended sentences
    were excluded from the definition of “conviction” for immi-
    gration purposes. Id. at 681. The new statutory definitions of
    “conviction” and “term of imprisonment” in § 1101(a)(48)
    displaced the BIA’s previous rule about suspended sentenc-
    es. In this way, “Congress made clear that immigration
    consequences should flow from the original determination
    of guilt.” Id. at 682. By removing the BIA’s special treatment
    of suspended sentences, “Congress ensured uniformity in
    the immigration laws by avoiding the need for immigration
    judges to examine the post-conviction procedures of each
    State.” Id.
    Based on this review of the statutory text and history, the
    Attorney General concluded that “the phrase ‘term of im-
    prisonment or a sentence’ in paragraph (B) is best read to
    concern an alien’s original criminal sentence, without regard
    to post-sentencing alterations that, like a suspension, merely
    alleviate the impact of that sentence.” Id. But he carved out
    an exception based on the reasoning in Pickering: “If the
    original sentence was altered because of a legal defect, then
    the sentence was not legally effective, and there is no valid
    22                                          Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    sentence to which immigration consequences can attach.” Id.
    at 682–83.
    The Attorney General thus extended the Pickering vacatur
    framework to all sentence alterations, including vacaturs,
    modifications, and clarifications. Id. at 683–85. He according-
    ly held that “state-court orders that modify, clarify, or
    otherwise alter a criminal alien’s sentence … will be given
    effect for immigration purposes only if based on a procedural
    or substantive defect in the underlying criminal proceed-
    ing.” Id. at 690 (emphasis added).
    Decisions of the Attorney General interpreting the feder-
    al immigration statutes are entitled to Chevron deference.
    I.N.S. v. Aguirre-Aguirre, 
    526 U.S. 415
    , 424 (1999); see also
    
    8 U.S.C. § 1103
    (a)(1) (stating that the “determination and
    ruling by the Attorney General with respect to all questions
    of law shall be controlling”). Applying the two-step Chevron
    framework, we first ask “whether ‘the statute is silent or
    ambiguous with respect to the specific issue’ before [us]; if
    so, ‘the question for the court [is] whether the agency’s
    answer is based on a permissible construction of the stat-
    ute.’” Aguirre-Aguirre, 
    526 U.S. at 424
     (quoting Chevron,
    U.S.A., Inc. v. Nat. Res. Def. Council, Inc., 
    467 U.S. 837
    , 843
    (1984)).
    Neither the petty-offense exception nor the definitions in
    § 1101(a)(48) unambiguously resolve whether Zaragoza’s
    original or modified sentence is the correct reference point
    for determining her eligibility for the exception. The answer
    instead turns on Chevron Step 2. 6 Based on our own review,
    6 An amicus relies heavily on BIA caselaw predating the statutory
    definition of “term of imprisonment.” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(48)(B). Accord-
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                                   23
    we hold that the Attorney General’s decision in Thomas is a
    permissible interpretation of the operative statutes—indeed,
    it is the most reasonable interpretation.
    We begin with the language of the petty-offense excep-
    tion. Zaragoza qualifies for relief from inadmissibility if she
    “was not sentenced to a term of imprisonment in excess of
    6 months (regardless of the extent to which the sentence was
    ultimately executed).” § 1182(a)(2)(A)(ii)(II) (emphasis
    added). The use of the past tense suggests that the statute
    refers to the original sentence as a matter of historical fact;
    the “regardless” qualifier excludes later alterations of it.
    Next, as Thomas explains, the definition of the phrase
    “term of imprisonment” in § 1101(a)(48)—and especially the
    language directing us to ignore any sentence suspension—
    implies that in general, subsequent alterations are to be
    disregarded. The inference here may not be strong enough to
    conclusively resolve the effect of sentence modifications at
    ing to the amicus, those decisions establish that a “new, reduced sentence
    stands as the only valid and lawful sentence imposed” for immigration
    purposes, Matter of Martin, 
    18 I. & N. Dec. 226
    , 227 (B.I.A. 1982), and that
    Congress intended to preserve this rule in enacting § 1101(a)(48). We are
    not persuaded. As the amicus recognizes, the definition of “term of
    imprisonment” displaced BIA precedent regarding the immigration
    effect of suspended sentences. Any inferences about Congress’s view on
    modified sentences are thin at best—certainly not convincing enough to
    resolve this case at Chevron Step 1. Indeed, to the extent that we can
    deduce anything from the enactment of § 1101(a)(48), it’s that Congress
    wanted “immigration consequences [to] flow from the original determi-
    nation of guilt,” not a modified determination. Matter of Thomas &
    
    Thompson, 27
     I. & N. Dec. 674, 682 (Att’y Gen. 2019); see also Saleh v.
    Gonzales, 
    495 F.3d 17
    , 24 (2d Cir. 2007) (recognizing that § 1101(a)(48)(A)
    “focuses on the original attachment of guilt”).
    24                                      Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    Chevron Step 1, but it confirms that the Attorney General’s
    interpretation of the statute is a reasonable one at Chevron
    Step 2.
    Were there any doubt about this analysis, circuit prece-
    dent confirms our conclusion. After the BIA held in Pickering
    that immigration consequences remain fixed to a conviction
    even after it is vacated (with an important exception for
    vacaturs based on a legal defect), we concluded that the
    agency’s decision was entitled to Chevron deference. Ali v.
    Ashcroft, 
    395 F.3d 722
    , 728–29 (7th Cir. 2005). Because the
    definition of “conviction” in § 1101(a)(48)(A) is silent on
    whether immigration consequences remain attached to a
    vacated conviction, we did not resolve the case at Chevron
    Step 1. Id. at 728. Rather, at Chevron Step 2, we held that
    Pickering’s interpretation was reasonable and therefore
    entitled to deference. Id. at 729.
    The same result follows here. As we’ve explained, in
    Thomas the Attorney General extended the Pickering vacatur
    rule to all sentence alterations—including, as relevant here,
    sentence modifications. True, resolving the immigration
    effect of vacaturs and sentence modifications turns on
    separate statutory definitions—for the former, it’s the defini-
    tion of “conviction” in § 1101(a)(48)(A); for the latter, it’s the
    definition of the phrase “term of imprisonment or a sen-
    tence” in § 1101(a)(48)(B). But the definitions are related and
    should be read harmoniously. And to the extent that it
    makes sense to treat vacated convictions differently from
    sentence modifications, it is far more reasonable to give
    continued effect to the original sentence after it has been
    modified than to give continued effect to a conviction after it
    has been vacated. Cf. Ali, 
    395 F.3d at
    729 n.4 (“[I]t would not
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                      25
    make much sense for Ali, whose conviction was modified to
    avoid deportation, to fare better than the applicant in
    Pickering[,] whose conviction was outright quashed for the
    same purpose.”). And yet we deferred to the BIA’s rule in
    Pickering.
    Zaragoza responds that deferring to Thomas is incon-
    sistent with our obligation to give full faith and credit to a
    state court’s modification of a sentence. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 1738
    (requiring that “every court within the United States” give
    full faith and credit to authenticated “Acts, records and
    judicial proceedings”). The Attorney General addressed and
    rejected that argument, reasoning that interpreting and
    applying the defined terms “conviction” and “term of
    imprisonment” in federal immigration law does not call into
    question the validity of the state court’s order. Thomas, 27 I.
    & N. Dec. at 686 (“The adjudicator is not reevaluating or
    otherwise questioning the validity of the state-court judg-
    ment. The adjudicator accordingly does not violate the Full
    Faith and Credit Act.”). We agree. The same reasoning
    defeats Zaragoza’s related argument that Thomas violates
    basic federalism principles. Because the federal immigration
    statutes assign independent effect to state convictions, they
    do not risk overrunning the domain of state law.
    In sum, the Attorney General’s decision in Thomas is enti-
    tled to deference as a permissible construction of the terms
    “conviction” and “term of imprisonment or a sentence” as
    defined in § 1101(a)(48). Under the Thomas rule, the state
    court’s sentence-modification order is not effective for
    immigration purposes because it was not based on a proce-
    dural or substantive defect in Zaragoza’s criminal case.
    26                                     Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    2. Retroactivity
    Zaragoza argued in her reconsideration motion that ap-
    plying Thomas to her is an impermissibly retroactive applica-
    tion of a new rule. The Board rejected that argument. We
    review retroactivity questions independently, owing no
    deference to the agency’s ruling. Velásquez-García v. Holder,
    
    760 F.3d 571
    , 578–79 (7th Cir. 2014)
    The law generally disfavors the retroactive application of
    new legal rules. See 
    id. at 579
    . “Elementary considerations of
    fairness dictate that individuals should have an opportunity
    to know what the law is and to conform their conduct
    accordingly; settled expectations should not be lightly
    disrupted.” Landgraf v. USI Film Prods., 
    511 U.S. 244
    , 265
    (1994). But deciding when a new rule operates retroactively
    “is not always a simple or mechanical task.” 
    Id. at 268
    . A new
    rule is not necessarily “retroactive” in effect simply because
    it is applied in a case arising from conduct predating its
    adoption. 
    Id. at 269
    . Rather, a determination that a particular
    rule operates retroactively “comes at the end of a process of
    judgment concerning the nature and extent of the change in
    the law and the degree of connection between the operation
    of the new rule and a relevant past event.” 
    Id. at 270
    . The
    inquiry, in other words, “demands a commonsense, func-
    tional judgment” and is “informed and guided by ‘familiar
    considerations of fair notice, reasonable reliance, and settled
    expectations.’” Martin v. Hadix, 
    527 U.S. 343
    , 357–58 (1999)
    (quoting Landgraf, 
    511 U.S. at 270
    )).
    As a general matter, “[a] rule is considered to be retroac-
    tive” in effect “when it ‘attaches new legal consequences to
    events completed before its enactment.’” Velásquez-García,
    760 F.3d at 579 (quoting Landgraf, 
    511 U.S. at 270
    ). A rule
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                                   27
    attaches “new legal consequences” to completed events
    when it “takes away or impairs vested rights acquired under
    existing laws, or creates a new obligation, imposes a new
    duty, or attaches a new disability, in respect to transactions
    or considerations already past.” I.N.S. v. St. Cyr, 
    533 U.S. 289
    ,
    321 (2001) (quoting Landgraf, 
    511 U.S. at 269
    ).
    A vexing problem in retroactivity cases is to identify the
    appropriate reference point for analysis—the event or mo-
    ment in time by which to judge whether an intervening legal
    development imposes new consequences or disabilities. See
    Vartelas v. Holder, 
    566 U.S. 257
    , 269–70 (2012); 
    id. at 277
    (Scalia, J., dissenting). Zaragoza and the government offer
    competing possibilities. 7 The government contends that the
    correct point of reference is March 31, 2014, when Zaragoza
    was convicted and sentenced for the neglect offense. Because
    she had no fixed entitlement to the petty-offense exception at
    that point in time, the government argues that Thomas does
    not have retroactive effect as applied to her. Zaragoza coun-
    ters with two possible reference points—either March 31,
    7 After oral argument we ordered supplemental briefing on the retroac-
    tivity question and specifically asked the parties to brief the relevant
    point of reference for retroactivity analysis in this case and the applica-
    tion of the retroactivity factors discussed in Velásquez-García v. Holder,
    
    760 F.3d 571
     (7th Cir. 2014). Zaragoza asserted that the government had
    waived any argument about retroactivity by failing to respond to her
    discussion of Velásquez-García in her opening brief. We disagree. Alt-
    hough the government did not specifically address the Velásquez-García
    factors in its original brief, it responded in a more general way to
    Zaragoza’s retroactivity argument, which is enough to avoid waiver.
    Sec'y, U.S. Dep't of Lab. v. Preston, 
    873 F.3d 877
    , 883 n.5 (11th Cir. 2017)
    (“Parties can most assuredly waive positions and issues on appeal, but
    not individual arguments—let alone authorities.”).
    28                                   Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    2014, when she was convicted and sentenced, or
    February 13, 2019, when the state court entered its sentence-
    modification order. As Zaragoza sees it, Thomas is impermis-
    sibly retroactive by reference to either event.
    We conclude that the proper reference point for the ret-
    roactivity inquiry is the February 2019 sentence-modification
    order. As we’ve noted, retroactivity analysis is concerned
    with the degree of connection between the new rule and the
    relevant past event. More specifically, the analysis asks
    whether a new rule “impairs vested rights acquired under
    existing laws.” St. Cyr, 
    533 U.S. at 321
     (quotation marks
    omitted). When the state court entered the sentence-
    modification order, Zaragoza acquired a legal entitlement to
    the petty-offense exception under existing immigration
    law—namely, the BIA’s decision in Cota-Vargas. As of that
    event, she had a complete defense to removal. The Attorney
    General’s decision in Thomas overruled Cota-Vargas, eliminat-
    ing the defense. So the “transaction[] or consideration[]” to
    which Thomas attached legal consequences was the sentence-
    modification order. 
    Id.
     The rule of Thomas therefore has
    retroactive effect as applied in Zaragoza’s removal proceed-
    ings.
    The government resists this conclusion, relying on the
    Supreme Court’s decisions in Vartelas and St. Cyr, both of
    which used the immigrant’s underlying conviction to evalu-
    ate the retroactive effect of later legal developments. But
    neither of those cases involved sentence modifications, so
    the Court had no occasion to consider the problem presented
    here.
    Instead, this case is closer to our decision in Jeudy v.
    Holder, 
    768 F.3d 595
     (7th Cir. 2014). There, an immigrant
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                       29
    committed a removable offense after living in the United
    States for six years. He continued to live in the United States,
    and just a year later, he became eligible to request cancella-
    tion of removal since he had continuously lived in the
    country for seven years. Congress later enacted a “stop-time
    rule,” which stops the seven-year continuous-residency
    clock when an immigrant commits a removable offense.
    8 U.S.C. § 1229b(d)(1). Because Jeudy had committed the
    removable offense before the seven years were up, the BIA
    concluded that he was ineligible to apply for cancellation of
    removal. Jeudy, 768 F.3d at 596–97.
    We disagreed, instead holding that the stop-time rule
    was impermissibly retroactive as applied in Jeudy’s case
    because he “was actually eligible for discretionary relief
    before [the new stop-time rule] took effect.” Id. at 603. In
    other words, in Jeudy there wasn’t a retroactivity problem
    simply because his conviction predated the new law; rather,
    a postconviction event made Jeudy unquestionably eligible
    for relief from removal, only to then be foreclosed by a later
    legal development.
    The same is true here. A postconviction event—
    Zaragoza’s sentence modification—gave her a right to relief
    from removal, only to be taken away by Thomas. Because the
    state court’s sentence-modification order predated Thomas,
    the decision is retroactive as applied to her.
    Our next question is whether retroactive application is
    impermissible in Zaragoza’s case. As we explained in
    Velásquez-García, when an agency interprets a statute “as an
    incident of its adjudicatory function,” it may permissibly
    apply the new interpretation in the case in which it is an-
    nounced. 760 F.3d at 581 (quotation marks omitted). But “a
    30                                      Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    retrospective application can be properly withheld” in other
    cases “when to apply the new rule to past conduct or prior
    events would work a manifest injustice.” Id. (quotation
    marks omitted). The “manifest injustice” inquiry turns on
    several factors:
    (1) Whether the particular case is one of first
    impression, (2) whether the new rule repre-
    sents an abrupt departure from well-
    established practice or merely attempts to fill a
    void in an unsettled area of law, (3) the extent
    to which the party against whom the new rule
    is applied relied on the former rule, (4) the de-
    gree of burden which a retroactive order im-
    poses on a party, and (5) the statutory interest
    in applying a new rule despite the reliance of a
    party on the old standard.
    Id. (quoting NLRB v. Wayne Transp., 
    776 F.2d 745
    , 751 n.8 (7th
    Cir. 1985)). “Like most such unweighted multi-factor lists,
    this one serves best as a heuristic; no one consideration
    trumps the others.” 
    Id.
    The first factor—whether the case is one of “first impres-
    sion”—requires some clarification. As we’ve noted, when an
    agency announces a new rule in the exercise of its adjudica-
    tive function, it may apply the rule in the proceeding before
    it; that is the case of “first impression.” 
    Id.
     This case, howev-
    er, is one of “second impression”: the BIA applied Thomas
    retroactively to Zaragoza—a stranger to the case in which
    the new rule was announced—even though she had already
    acquired a right to relief from removal by operation of the
    prior rule of Cota-Vargas. The government concedes, and we
    agree, that this factor tips against retroactive application.
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                         31
    The second factor is whether the new rule constitutes an
    abrupt departure from well-established practice or merely
    fills a void. Thomas overruled Cota-Vargas and therefore
    departed from well-established practice, so this factor too
    disfavors retroactive application.
    The third factor is the extent of Zaragoza’s reliance inter-
    ests. Though no one factor in the Velásquez-García list is
    decisive, this one has a significant role to play. See Vartelas,
    
    566 U.S. at 274
     (“[T]he likelihood of reliance on prior law
    strengthens the case for reading a newly enacted law pro-
    spectively.”); Landgraf, 
    511 U.S. at 270
     (retroactivity doctrine
    is guided by “familiar considerations of fair notice, reasona-
    ble reliance, and settled expectations”). “Importantly, the
    critical question is not whether a party actually relied on the
    old law, but whether such reliance would have been reason-
    able.” Velásquez-García, 760 F.3d at 582; see also Jeudy, 768 F.3d
    at 604.
    Reliance on the old law was objectively reasonable in the
    circumstances here. Under the rule of Cota-Vargas, Zaragoza
    had clear right to relief under the petty-offense exception
    when the state court modified her sentence. That is, Cota-
    Vargas gave her a complete defense to removal once she
    obtained the order from the state court reducing her sen-
    tence to six months or less. When she did so, she reasonably
    relied on then-existing law, which lifted the inadmissibility
    bar and eliminated the basis for her removal.
    The reliance interests here are arguably stronger than
    those at issue in Velásquez-García. There, the immigrant took
    preliminary steps toward acquiring permanent-resident
    status but did not file an application within one year of the
    date when his visa number became available, as required by
    32                                     Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591
    statute. Velásquez-García, 760 F.3d at 574. Under three prior
    non-precedential BIA decisions, the agency required an
    applicant to show only that he “took ‘substantial steps’ to
    acquire permanent status in order to qualify for the Act’s
    protection.” Id. at 576. However, in its intervening decision
    in Matter of Vazquez, 
    25 I. & N. Dec. 817
     (B.I.A. 2012), the BIA
    narrowed its interpretation of the operative language in the
    statutory deadline, requiring “an immigrant [to] make a
    fully compliant application for permanent residence or one
    with only technical defects within one year, unless excep-
    tional circumstances prevented the immigrant from filing
    such an application.” Velásquez-García, 
    760 F.3d 576
    . In other
    words, “substantial steps” were no longer sufficient; under
    the new interpretation, a completed, compliant, and timely
    application was needed. The BIA’s new interpretation
    “departed sharply” from its earlier non-precedential deci-
    sions. 
    Id.
     We held that Velásquez-García’s reliance on the old
    law was objectively reasonable because “[i]n light of the
    state of the law at the critical time, a reasonable person
    reasonably could have assumed that the Act did not require
    him or her to file an application within one year.” 
    Id. at 583
    .
    If it was reasonable for Velásquez-García to rely on non-
    precedential BIA decisions generously interpreting a statuto-
    ry deadline to apply for immigration benefits, then it was
    reasonable for Zaragoza to rely on the BIA’s precedential
    decision in Cota-Vargas, which gave her a complete defense
    to removability based on her sentence modification.
    The fourth factor is the degree of burden that the retroac-
    tive rule imposes. “Courts have long recognized the obvious
    hardship imposed by removal.” 
    Id. at 584
    . This factor clearly
    favors Zaragoza. The final factor is the statutory interest in
    Nos. 19-3437 & 20-1591                                    33
    applying the new rule despite reliance on the old standard.
    “Often, this will point in favor of the government because
    non-retroactivity impairs the uniformity of a statutory
    scheme, and the importance of uniformity in immigration
    law is well established.” 
    Id.
     (quotation marks and alteration
    omitted). Applying Thomas to Zaragoza would promote
    uniformity because the rule would apply to all sentence
    modifications occurring before that decision was issued.
    In sum, all but one of the Velásquez-García factors weigh
    against retroactive application of Thomas in Zaragoza’s case.
    Accordingly, we conclude that applying the new rule to her
    would work a manifest injustice. We GRANT the petitions for
    review and REMAND to the BIA for further proceedings
    consistent with this opinion.