John Myers v. Ron Neal ( 2020 )


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  •                               In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    ____________________
    No. 19‐3158
    JOHN MYERS,
    Petitioner‐Appellee,
    v.
    RON NEAL,
    Respondent‐Appellant.
    ____________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court for the
    Southern District of Indiana, Indianapolis Division.
    No. 1:16‐cv‐2023 — James R. Sweeney, II, Judge.
    ____________________
    ARGUED MAY 26, 2020 — DECIDED AUGUST 4, 2020
    AMENDED SEPTEMBER 16, 2020
    ____________________
    Before FLAUM, SCUDDER, and ST. EVE, Circuit Judges.
    SCUDDER, Circuit Judge. Indiana University student Jill
    Behrman went for a bike ride one morning but never re‐
    turned. The police later found her bicycle less than a mile
    from the home of John Myers II, on the north side of Bloom‐
    ington. Two years later a woman named Wendy Owings came
    forward confessing to the murder, but the case was reopened
    when a hunter came upon Behrman’s remains far from the
    2                                                     No. 19‐3158
    location Owings described. A renewed investigation led the
    authorities to Myers, who was eventually charged with the
    murder. Six years after Behrman’s disappearance, a jury con‐
    victed him. Multiple Indiana courts affirmed. Myers then
    sought relief in federal court, and the district court granted
    his application for a writ of habeas corpus, concluding that
    Myers’s counsel performed so deficiently at trial as to under‐
    mine confidence in the jury’s guilty verdict. We reverse.
    The district court was right about the performance of My‐
    ers’s trial counsel. It was deficient and plainly so in at least
    two ways. What leads us to reinstate Myers’s conviction,
    though, is the strength of the state’s case against him separate
    and apart from those errors. Among the most convincing evi‐
    dence were the many self‐incriminating statements that My‐
    ers made to many different people, like telling his grand‐
    mother that, if the police ever learned what he did, he would
    spend the rest of his life in jail. The weight of these statements,
    when combined with other evidence, leads us to conclude
    that his counsel’s deficient performance did not prejudice
    him. The proper outcome is to respect the finality of Myers’s
    conviction in the Indiana courts.
    I
    A. The Murder and Investigation
    Jill Behrman disappeared during a morning bicycle ride
    on May 31, 2000. Local authorities and the Bloomington com‐
    munity sprung to action with assistance from volunteer
    search groups, neighboring police forces, state authorities,
    and eventually the FBI. The police established the timeline of
    that morning: Behrman, a skilled cyclist, planned to go for a
    ride before starting work at noon at the University’s Student
    No. 19‐3158                                                    3
    Recreational Sports Center. She logged off her computer at
    9:32 a.m. at her parents’ house, which was close to the center
    of town. Two people reported seeing Behrman’s bike lying by
    the road near farmland northwest of Bloomington at some
    point around noon that day. Nobody could locate her,
    though.
    Initial leads pointed quite literally in different directions.
    Which way Behrman rode her bike that morning was one of
    the unsolved questions in the investigation and became a fo‐
    cus of the eventual trial. Everyone agreed that she started her
    ride from her parents’ house in Bloomington. Whether she
    rode north or south was what mattered. Behrman’s riding
    north was important to the theory the state would present at
    trial because it placed her near the home of John Myers. But
    some early leads suggested that Behrman rode south that
    morning. The Appendix contains a map with markings of the
    locations pertinent to the case.
    Myers lived about a mile from where Behrman’s bike was
    found on North Maple Grove. Given this proximity, Bloom‐
    ington Detective Rick Crussen interviewed him on June 28,
    2000. Myers stated that he had been on vacation the week of
    Behrman’s disappearance. He added that he had been “here
    and there” but mainly at home because his plans to take a trip
    with his girlfriend Carly Goodman had fallen through. While
    checking Myers’s explanations, the authorities learned that
    his relationship with Goodman, a high school senior at the
    time, ended a few weeks earlier than he had described. Good‐
    man also told the police that she had no plans to go anywhere
    with Myers.
    In 2002, a woman named Wendy Owings came forward
    and confessed to Behrman’s murder. Owings, a Bloomington
    4                                                  No. 19‐3158
    resident, was facing unrelated felony charges when authori‐
    ties interviewed her and asked her whether she knew about
    the Behrman disappearance—which by then was widely
    known around town. Owings faced up to 86 years’ imprison‐
    ment and believed she could benefit by cooperating and con‐
    fessing to the murder. Owings then decided to lie to the po‐
    lice, thinking that falsely admitting to the murder would
    mean less jail time. She did so by concocting the story that she
    and two friends were driving and using drugs when they ac‐
    cidentally hit Behrman on her bicycle. Owings said that the
    collision took place on Harrell Road on Bloomington’s south
    side, roughly 20 miles from where Behrman’s bike was found.
    To cover up the accident, Owings explained, they loaded Beh‐
    rman’s body into their car, wrapped her in a plastic sheet se‐
    cured with bungee cords, stabbed her, and dumped her body
    in Salt Creek. Investigators were able to corroborate some of
    Owings’s information: they drained the creek and found a
    knife, plastic tarp, and bungee cords. Although Behrman’s
    body was not recovered, the police closed the investigation
    into her disappearance.
    Nearly three years after Behrman’s disappearance, in
    March 2003, a father and son hunting in the woods north of
    Bloomington came across a human jawbone. The woods were
    about 20 miles north of where Behrman’s bike was found. The
    authorities and a forensic expert surveyed the scene and col‐
    lected other skeletal remains. They determined based on den‐
    tal records that the remains belonged to Jill Behrman. Recog‐
    nizing her story no longer added up, Owings recanted her
    confession and admitted to lying about the murder in hopes
    for leniency on other charges.
    No. 19‐3158                                                     5
    The authorities reopened the investigation after Owings’s
    recantation, but no meaningful breakthrough occurred until
    2004. It was then that Detective Rick Lang turned his focus to
    Myers based on unexpected information provided by Myers’s
    own family. His grandmother Betty Swaffard came forward
    and told the authorities that Myers had made a series of sus‐
    picious and incriminating comments about Behrman’s disap‐
    pearance. Others also reported incriminating statements My‐
    ers made to them about the case. His former girlfriend, Carly
    Goodman, likewise informed the police about a time Myers
    took her to the approximate location in the woods where Beh‐
    rman’s remains were later found. These developments led the
    state to conclude it had enough evidence to bring charges. In
    April 2006 a grand jury indicted Myers for the murder of Jill
    Behrman.
    B. The Trial
    1. Opening Statements
    Trial began on October 16, 2006. In its opening statements,
    the prosecution highlighted Myers’s many incriminating
    statements, focusing especially on his grandmother who felt
    compelled to alert the authorities despite strong feelings of
    family loyalty. The state’s theory hinged on Behrman riding
    her bike along a northern route on North Maple Grove near
    Myers’s home, which the state said they would prove by pre‐
    senting bloodhound scent evidence.
    Defense counsel opened by suggesting Myers had an alibi:
    the morning that Behrman disappeared, Myers made phone
    calls from the landline in his northside home at 9:15, 9:17, 9:18,
    10:35, and 10:47 a.m. That timing, defense counsel suggested,
    rendered Myers’s involvement impossible if Behrman rode
    6                                                 No. 19‐3158
    her bike not north (in the direction of Myers’s home) but in‐
    stead to the south along Harrell Road. The officers involved
    in the first investigation considered that route possible after
    speaking to one of Behrman’s classmates and to Wendy Ow‐
    ings, both of whom said they saw Behrman on that road on
    the day she disappeared.
    Myers’s counsel also used his opening statement to offer
    the jury two alternative suspects for the murder. The first was
    Wendy Owings, the person who confessed to the murder but
    later recanted her story after the police recovered Behrman’s
    remains in a different place than she had identified. Defense
    counsel alternatively sought to place blame on Brian Hollars,
    a Bloomington resident who worked with Behrman at the Stu‐
    dent Recreational Sports Center. But in contending that Hol‐
    lars was responsible for Behrman’s murder, defense counsel
    made certain misrepresentations. He promised the jury evi‐
    dence that Hollars and Behrman were romantically involved
    and were seen fighting the day before she disappeared. Coun‐
    sel also represented that a bloodhound followed Behrman’s
    scent in the direction of Hollars’s house but that an officer
    stopped the dog before it could reach the front door. All of
    those promises rang hollow, as defense counsel never pre‐
    sented any such evidence.
    2. The State’s Case Against Myers
    The evidence presented during the first few days of trial
    focused on how Behrman’s remains were uncovered, identi‐
    fied, and analyzed. Then the state presented evidence about
    her cycling habits and movements the day she disappeared.
    Brian Hollars testified for the prosecution, described Beh‐
    rman’s work at the recreational center, and offered an alibi by
    No. 19‐3158                                                   7
    informing the jury that he was at work the day of the disap‐
    pearance. His testimony was not meaningfully challenged.
    As the state promised, it presented evidence supporting
    its theory that Behrman rode north on North Maple Grove,
    near Myers’s home. Foremost, the state presented evidence
    showing the location at which Behrman’s bike was found.
    Deputy Charles Douthett, who conducted a search with his
    bloodhound several days after the disappearance, likewise
    testified that the dog tracked Behrman’s scent along parts of
    the northern route. The dog alerted to Behrman’s scent not
    only in the general direction of Brian Hollars’s home but also
    near the location of her bike and indeed even a touch north in
    the direction of Myers’s home. The jury heard no evidence
    that the bloodhound tracked Behrman to Hollars’s doorstep
    as defense counsel told the jury in his opening statement.
    The state’s witnesses also included members of Myers’s
    own family. His mother recounted for the jury a time in 2001
    when Myers returned from fishing in the woods and reported
    finding a “bone” and “panties.” Myers’s aunt Debbie Bell tes‐
    tified that two months before Behrman’s disappearance, My‐
    ers called asking for help watching his daughter because he
    needed time alone. Bell told the jury she remembered Myers
    pointing to problems with his girlfriend Carly Goodman and
    saying that he “felt like he was a balloon full of hot air ready
    to burst.” She also described Myers’s demeanor on the day
    Behrman disappeared, recalling that he showed up at his par‐
    ents’ home crying and saying he was leaving town.
    Myers’s grandmother Betty Swaffard testified despite
    what she described as conflicting feelings of family loyalty.
    She told the jury that early on Myers said he was a suspect in
    Behrman’s disappearance and was afraid to drive past the
    8                                                  No. 19‐3158
    police roadblocks near his home. She further recounted My‐
    ers’s statements four years later in 2004, when he called and
    asked her to take care of his daughter. He explained that he
    needed time to himself because he had “a lot of things” to
    think about. When Swaffard asked what was wrong, Myers
    said that “if the authorities knew” what he had done he
    would “be in prison for the rest of [his] life.” As he dropped
    off his daughter, Myers was crying and told his grandmother
    that he wished he “wasn’t a bad person” and that he hadn’t
    “done these bad things.” Defense counsel did not meaning‐
    fully cross‐examine these family members.
    The state also presented evidence about Myers’s unusual
    behavior around the time of Behrman’s disappearance. The
    jury heard, for example, a neighbor explain that Myers had
    covered the windows of his trailer and moved his car on the
    day Behrman went missing. Myers said he parked elsewhere
    so nobody could see he was home.
    Nine additional witnesses testified that Myers brought up
    Behrman’s disappearance—sometimes in highly inculpatory
    terms—between 2000 and 2006. One of those witnesses was
    the husband of Myers’s cousin, who recalled him saying at a
    family gathering in late 2001 that he bet Behrman’s body
    would be found in the woods.
    Another witness, Myers’s former coworker Dean Alexan‐
    der, told the jury that while out on a furniture delivery, Myers
    asked him if he had heard about the Behrman case. Myers
    proceeded to point out where Behrman’s bike was found and
    said that he had been questioned by police a couple of times
    because he lived close by. Alexander also told the jury that
    Myers then went further and, while driving north, gestured
    out the window and said, “if he was ever going to hide a body,
    No. 19‐3158                                                   9
    he would hide it up this way in a wooded area.” The state also
    called Kanya Bailey, a former girlfriend of Myers, who said
    that in 2000 or 2001, he pointed to the spot where Behrman’s
    bike was found and told her that he was the one who found it.
    The state presented further testimony from John Roell,
    who was in jail for a petty offense and shared a cell with My‐
    ers for two days in May 2005. Roell recounted for the jury cer‐
    tain statements Myers made about Behrman. More specifi‐
    cally, Roell came forward to authorities to report that Myers
    brought up the Behrman case and mentioned her bicycle three
    or four times. Roell described how Myers paced nervously
    about the cell, appeared to be angry, once referred to a
    woman—who Roell believed was Behrman—as a “bitch,” and
    said that “if she wouldn’t have said anything, this probably
    . . . none of this would have happened.”
    Myers’s former girlfriend Carly Goodman also testified
    for the prosecution and told the jury about the time in March
    2000 when Myers drove her to a clearing in the woods north
    of Bloomington. Six years later, Detective Lang drove her back
    to the same general area and, without prompting, Goodman
    stated that she recognized the area as the location where My‐
    ers had taken her before. That area was less than one mile
    from where the Morgan County hunter found Behrman’s re‐
    mains. On cross‐examination Goodman acknowledged that
    she had little explanation for how she recognized that clearing
    compared to any other.
    Additional evidence supporting the prosecution’s theory
    came from pathologist Stephen Radentz. He testified that Beh‐
    rman had been killed by a shotgun wound to the back of the
    head. He also opined that the physical evidence surrounding
    the scene, including the failure to locate any clothing, led him
    10                                                  No. 19‐3158
    to conclude that Behrman was raped before she was mur‐
    dered.
    A firearms expert also testified and explained that the
    murder weapon, which was never recovered, likely was a 12‐
    gauge shotgun. The state presented testimony from Myers’s
    brother, who explained that he kept a 12‐gauge shotgun at his
    parents’ house but noticed the gun was missing when he
    moved home for a month in June 2000.
    3. The Defense Case
    The defense called only two witnesses. The first was Gary
    Dunn, the FBI investigator who led the initial inquiry into
    Behrman’s death and considered seriously the possibility that
    she had biked along a southern route away from Myers’s
    home. After Dunn stepped down, defense counsel admitted
    being unprepared to call their next witness because they
    “didn’t anticipate having to put on [their] case this early”—
    the state had rested its case earlier than the trial schedule an‐
    ticipated.
    Jason Fajt, an officer responsible for processing physical
    evidence in the case, also testified. Fajt presented books about
    pregnancy and reproductive health found in Behrman’s bed‐
    room, presumably to bolster the defense’s theory that Beh‐
    rman had a relationship with Brian Hollars and became preg‐
    nant with his child. Fajt also showed the jury the tarp, knife,
    and bungee cords found in Salt Creek that were consistent
    with the confession that Wendy Owings later recanted.
    4. Closing Arguments
    The state used its summation to argue that the trial evi‐
    dence exposed two of Myers’s obsessions: his ex‐girlfriend
    Carly Goodman and Behrman’s bicycle. The prosecutor
    No. 19‐3158                                                   11
    reminded the jury of the many witnesses who described My‐
    ers’s statements about Behrman’s bike. The state likewise em‐
    phasized Myers’s statements to his grandmother and aunt,
    urging the jury to see them as confessions to the murder.
    The state also described Myers’s activities the morning of
    the murder, painting his calls to various parks and drive‐in
    movies as a “last‐ditch effort to get [his girlfriend] Carly back”
    and explaining that he was “trying to get control back” over
    her. The state connected the two apparent obsessions by es‐
    tablishing a motive: Myers wanted to control Goodman but
    could not, so instead he took Behrman, who was merely in the
    wrong place at the wrong time, to the same clearing in the
    woods where he had driven Goodman. Based on the evi‐
    dence, the state argued, Myers’s need to control women mo‐
    tivated what Dr. Radentz called a “classic rape homicide.”
    On the defense side, Myers’s counsel followed up with a
    watered‐down version of his original theory, since much of it
    had been discredited during trial. Defense counsel reempha‐
    sized Myers’s alibi and that the evidence about which way
    Behrman rode was a wash. He touched on the Wendy Owings
    theory and posited that the physical evidence did not rule out
    a stabbing.
    When it came to Brian Hollars, counsel shied away from
    his original theory. He still suggested that Behrman might
    have been murdered because she was pregnant, a theory he
    gleaned from books about the topic and contraception found
    in her bedroom. But counsel said that the person responsible
    for the murder could have been Hollars “or maybe it was an‐
    other man entirely.” The defense also noted that Myers had
    no clear motive for the murder and stressed the lack of phys‐
    ical evidence connecting him to it.
    12                                                  No. 19‐3158
    The jury deliberated for less than two hours and returned
    a guilty verdict. The trial court later sentenced Myers to 65
    years’ imprisonment. The Indiana Court of Appeals affirmed
    Myers’s conviction and sentence on direct review. See Myers
    v. State, 
    887 N.E.2d 170
     (Ind. Ct. App. 2008). The Indiana Su‐
    preme Court then declined review. See Myers v. State, 
    898 N.E.2d 1228
     (Ind. 2008) (unpublished table decision).
    C. Requests for Postconviction Relief in State Court
    Myers began his quest for postconviction relief by filing a
    petition in the trial court alleging that his counsel had per‐
    formed so ineffectively at trial as to violate the Sixth Amend‐
    ment. To support his petition, Myers pointed to an order of
    the Indiana Supreme Court finding that defense counsel, Pat‐
    rick Baker, had engaged in professional misconduct during
    the trial, and suspending his license to practice for six months.
    See In re Baker, 
    955 N.E.2d 729
     (Ind. 2011). The Indiana Su‐
    preme Court found that Baker breached his ethical duties not
    only by making false promises to the jury during his opening
    statement, but also by improperly soliciting Myers as a client
    and then falsely promising to represent him free of charge.
    While Myers alleged multiple instances of ineffective as‐
    sistance in his state postconviction petition, three specific er‐
    rors came to form the focus of his request for relief:
    1. False promises: Counsel’s broken promises to
    the jury in his opening statement destroyed
    his credibility and left jurors confused about
    his theory of defense.
    2. Bloodhound evidence: Counsel’s failure to ob‐
    ject to unreliable bloodhound evidence al‐
    lowed the jury to conclude that Behrman
    No. 19‐3158                                                  13
    traveled near Myers’s home, providing him
    the opportunity to commit the murder.
    3. Rape testimony: Counsel failed to object to Dr.
    Radentz’s testimony that the circumstances
    around Behrman’s murder suggested she
    was raped. And that testimony allowed the
    jury to find a sexual assault motive, which
    was unfounded and resulted in severe prej‐
    udice.
    The Indiana trial court denied relief. It noted that defense
    counsel did make misrepresentations during his opening
    statement but said that they did not affect the trial’s outcome
    because the judge instructed the jurors not to base their deci‐
    sion on the statements and arguments of counsel. The trial
    court also rejected all of Myers’s other contentions that his
    counsel performed deficiently at trial.
    The Indiana Court of Appeals affirmed the denial of post‐
    conviction relief. See Myers v. State, 
    33 N.E.3d 1077
     (Ind. Ct.
    App. 2015). The court evaluated Myers’s three primary con‐
    tentions of ineffective assistance of counsel this way:
    1. False promises: The court found deficient per‐
    formance because defense counsel knew or
    should have known that no evidence sup‐
    ported his contentions that a bloodhound
    detected Behrman’s scent at Hollars’s home.
    (The court did not address counsel’s false
    promise about evidence showing that Hol‐
    lars and Behrman were seen fighting the day
    before her disappearance.) The false promise
    about the bloodhound evidence did not
    14                                               No. 19‐3158
    result in prejudice, however, as defense
    counsel was able to present some evidence
    suggesting the possibility that Hollars had a
    romantic interest in Behrman. That evi‐
    dence, the court reasoned, came from Beh‐
    rman’s cousin, who testified that some uni‐
    dentified “older man” had asked Behrman
    out on a date.
    2. Bloodhound evidence: Though defense counsel
    testified at the postconviction hearing that
    he did not remember ever researching the
    admissibility of bloodhound evidence, the
    court concluded that Myers failed to over‐
    come the presumption that counsel’s choice
    not to object to the evidence was strategic.
    Finding no deficient performance on this
    score, the court never reached the prejudice
    question.
    3. Rape testimony: The court forwent a deficient
    performance analysis and concluded that
    Baker’s failure to object to the testimony
    from Dr. Radentz did not prejudice Myers at
    trial. The court determined that counsel suc‐
    cessfully cross‐examined Dr. Radentz and
    elicited the acknowledgment that his conclu‐
    sion about rape was not based on any phys‐
    ical evidence from Behrman’s remains.
    Before denying relief, the state appellate court paused to
    address Myers’s contention that counsel’s errors, when aggre‐
    gated, affected the jury’s decision and thereby amounted to
    ineffective assistance of counsel. The court underscored its
    No. 19‐3158                                                  15
    finding that Myers had failed to show even one instance of his
    counsel performing deficiently in a way that resulted in prej‐
    udice. Without even one error to point to, the court reasoned,
    there was nothing to aggregate as part of any cumulative prej‐
    udice analysis.
    The Indiana Supreme Court again declined review. See
    Myers v. State, 
    40 N.E.3d 858
     (Ind. 2015) (unpublished table
    decision). It was then that Myers sought postconviction relief
    in federal court.
    D. District Court’s Award of Federal Habeas Relief
    In a 146‐page opinion, the district court focused much of
    its analysis on what it found were three serious errors com‐
    mitted by Myers’s trial counsel: making false promises re‐
    garding the Brian Hollars evidence during opening state‐
    ments, not objecting to the bloodhound evidence, and failing
    to preclude Dr. Radentz’s testimony about Behrman likely be‐
    ing raped. Myers v. Superintendent, Indiana State Prison, 
    410 F. Supp. 3d 958
    , 981, 991, 1016 (S.D. Ind. 2019).
    Turning to prejudice, the district court determined that the
    Indiana Court of Appeals, as the last court to have considered
    the merits of Myers’s ineffective assistance claim, considered
    each allegation of ineffective assistance in isolation, rather
    than focusing on their cumulative effect. See 
    id.
     at 1021–23.
    The failure to consider the combined effect of the errors, the
    district court concluded, amounted to an unreasonable appli‐
    cation of the clearly established direction the Supreme Court
    provided in Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984). See
    
    id.
    From there the district court found that “no fairminded ju‐
    rist could conclude that trial counsel’s cumulative errors did
    16                                                 No. 19‐3158
    not meet Strickland’s prejudice standard.” Myers, 410
    F. Supp. 3d at 1054. The court underscored that, while the
    state’s evidence was sufficient to convict Myers, “it is far from
    a strong case of guilt” and, as a result, “the prejudice caused
    by trial counsel’s errors more likely impacted the verdict.” Id.
    at 1034. Indeed, the district court found that the “cumulative
    impact of trial counsel’s errors was devastating to Mr. Myers’s
    defense.” Id. at 1050. The court granted habeas relief on that
    basis.
    II
    While this appeal owes some of its complexity to the fed‐
    eral habeas corpus framework, the proper starting point is fa‐
    miliar. To evaluate a claim of ineffective assistance of counsel,
    we apply the standard the Supreme Court announced in
    Strickland v. Washington and ask whether defense counsel’s
    performance was deficient and resulted in prejudice. 
    466 U.S. at 687
    . The deficient performance prong requires that the de‐
    fendant show that his counsel’s errors were so far below the
    level of competent representation that it was as though he had
    no counsel at all. See 
    id.
     On the prejudice prong, the defendant
    must show “a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s
    unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding would
    have been different.” 
    Id. at 694
    .
    That hill is even steeper for issues that the state court de‐
    cided on the merits. Through its enactment of the Antiterror‐
    ism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996, Congress has al‐
    lowed a federal court to award habeas relief to those like John
    Myers convicted of crimes under state law only if the state
    court’s ruling “was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
    application of, clearly established Federal law, as determined
    by the Supreme Court,” or “was based on an unreasonable
    No. 19‐3158                                                     17
    determination of the facts in light of the evidence presented
    in the State court proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1), (2). This
    is no easy task. See Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. 170
    , 181 (2011)
    (describing the federal habeas standard as “difficult to meet”
    and “highly deferential”). The deferential standard reflects
    Congress’s decision to require federal courts to afford sub‐
    stantial respect to the interests of comity and finality embod‐
    ied in state court judgments of conviction.
    By its terms, however, so‐called AEDPA deference does
    not apply to federal claims that the state court did not address
    on the merits. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d) (providing that the def‐
    erential standard of review applies to “any claim that was ad‐
    judicated on the merits in [s]tate court proceedings”). When a
    state court reaches only one part of Strickland’s two‐pronged
    analysis, we review the unaddressed prong de novo. See Wig‐
    gins v. Smith, 
    539 U.S. 510
    , 534 (2003) (reviewing de novo
    whether the defendant was prejudiced for purposes of the
    Strickland analysis because the state court did not reach the
    issue).
    A. Deficient Performance
    We agree with the district court that defense counsel’s per‐
    formance fell short of “the legal profession’s objective stand‐
    ards for reasonably effective representation.” See Anderson v.
    Sternes, 
    243 F.3d 1049
    , 1057 (7th Cir. 2001) (citing Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at
    687–88). We reach that conclusion whether we
    evaluate counsel’s performance de novo or by affording the In‐
    diana Court of Appeals’s assessment the deference prescribed
    by § 2254(d)(1).
    False promises. Defense lawyers often argue for acquittals
    on the basis that the authorities charged the wrong person.
    18                                                   No. 19‐3158
    Myers’s counsel sought to do just that but went too far. Coun‐
    sel promised to present evidence that Brian Hollars killed
    Behrman, even though he had to know he could not follow
    through on that promise at trial. No evidence supported the
    promises to prove that a bloodhound tracked Behrman’s scent
    to Hollars’s home or that Hollars was seen arguing with Beh‐
    rman a day or two before she disappeared. Without such evi‐
    dence, counsel’s promises went unfulfilled. Making false
    promises about evidence in an opening statement is a surefire
    way for defense counsel to harm his credibility with the jury.
    See United States ex rel. Hampton v. Leibach, 
    347 F.3d 219
    , 257
    (7th Cir. 2003). The state wisely concedes that Myers’s coun‐
    sel’s false promises are indefensible—a clear instance of defi‐
    cient performance.
    Bloodhound evidence. The analysis is not as straightforward
    with Myers’s contention that his counsel should have objected
    to the testimony that a bloodhound tracked Behrman’s scent
    along a northern route and ultimately to the location of where
    her bike was found. The prosecution used this evidence to put
    Behrman—not just her bike—in north Bloomington, near My‐
    ers’s home. Myers’s counsel may have thought that it was
    more difficult to assign blame to Hollars without evidence
    putting Behrman in north Bloomington the morning of her
    disappearance.
    But the district court was right in its observation that coun‐
    sel so passively allowing the bloodhound evidence all but
    guaranteed the jury would not credit Myers’s alibi that he was
    at home making telephone calls on a landline for a good part
    of the morning when Behrman disappeared. And the district
    court was equally correct that, at the very least, defense coun‐
    sel should have investigated the admissibility of bloodhound
    No. 19‐3158                                                    19
    evidence and made an informed decision about whether to
    seek its exclusion. We, too, are troubled by counsel’s acknowl‐
    edgment at the postconviction hearing that he did not recall
    doing anything to assess the admissibility of the bloodhound
    evidence. Plain and simple, counsel missed the issue.
    In these circumstances, we are inclined to agree with the
    district court that counsel’s failure to object amounted to de‐
    ficient performance and that the Indiana Court of Appeals’s
    conclusion to the contrary was unreasonable, as it assumed
    without any evidentiary foundation in the record that coun‐
    sel’s failure to object reflected a considered and reasonable
    strategic decision. See Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    690–91 (“[S]trate‐
    gic choices made after thorough investigation of law and facts
    relevant to plausible options are virtually unchallengeable;
    and strategic choices made after less than complete investiga‐
    tion are reasonable precisely to the extent that reasonable pro‐
    fessional judgments support the limitations on investiga‐
    tion.”); Wiggins, 
    539 U.S. at 521
     (emphasizing the same point).
    Rape testimony. Perhaps the starkest example of deficient
    performance came from counsel’s failure to object to testi‐
    mony stating that the circumstances around the murder were
    consistent with Behrman being raped before she was killed.
    Dr. Radentz, a forensic pathologist, investigated Behrman’s
    remains and the scene surrounding their recovery and con‐
    cluded that the cause of death was a “shotgun wound to the
    back of the head.” That conclusion alone presented an obsta‐
    cle for Myers’s theory that Wendy Owings’s recanted confes‐
    sion (that she ran over Behrman with her car, stabbed her to
    death, and then dumped her body in Salt Creek) was in fact
    true. But Dr. Radentz also testified that Behrman’s remains
    20                                                   No. 19‐3158
    being found in a remote place without any clothing suggested
    that she was raped.
    In state postconviction review, the Indiana Court of Ap‐
    peals did not consider whether the failure to object to Dr. Ra‐
    dentz’s testimony reflected deficient performance, preferring
    instead to take the permissible course of going straight to
    Strickland’s prejudice prong. See Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 697
    (“[A] court need not determine whether counsel’s perfor‐
    mance was deficient before examining the prejudice suffered
    by the defendant as a result of the alleged deficiencies.”). That
    analytical route has a consequence for our review of Myers’s
    request for federal habeas relief: we lack any state court de‐
    termination on the deficient performance prong to which to
    review or defer under § 2254(d)(1). See Quintana v. Chandler,
    
    723 F.3d 849
    , 853 (7th Cir. 2013) (“[W]hen a state court makes
    the basis for its decision clear, [§] 2254(d) deference applies
    only to those issues the state court explicitly addressed.”) (cit‐
    ing Wiggins, 
    539 U.S. at 534
    ). Our review therefore proceeds
    de novo.
    Having taken our own fresh and thorough look at the trial
    record, we conclude without hesitation that defense counsel’s
    failure to object to Dr. Radentz’s testimony was “outside the
    wide range of professionally competent assistance.” Strick‐
    land, 
    466 U.S. at 690
    . Counsel provided no explanation for this
    failure, and our role is not to search for one to excuse his de‐
    ficient performance. See Wiggins, 
    539 U.S. at
    526–27; Brown v.
    Sternes, 
    304 F.3d 677
    , 691 (7th Cir. 2002).
    While the Indiana Court of Appeals was right to note that
    defense counsel did manage to elicit acknowledgment from
    Dr. Radentz that he could not prove Behrman was raped, the
    observation only goes so far. Defense counsel himself was
    No. 19‐3158                                                  21
    responsible for provoking the testimony most harmful to My‐
    ers. On direct examination, Dr. Radentz raised only the possi‐
    bility of a rape‐homicide and even then only in passing. But it
    was defense counsel’s imprecise and prolonged questioning
    on cross‐examination that allowed Dr. Radentz to underscore
    his certainty that a rape occurred. Indeed, in response to de‐
    fense counsel’s questions, Dr. Radentz testified that he consid‐
    ered the case “a rape homicide and dumping until proven
    otherwise.”
    Preventing the jury from hearing a word about a rape mo‐
    tive should have been a priority for counsel. Everyone should
    agree that the introduction of evidence of sexual violence, es‐
    pecially in a case where a young college student went missing
    and later turned up dead, can be prejudicial. See House v. Bell,
    
    547 U.S. 518
    , 541 (2006). And in prosecuting Myers, the state
    did not use Dr. Radentz’s testimony solely to explain where
    and how Behrman was murdered. It instead relied on the tes‐
    timony to support its theory of motive: that Myers raped Beh‐
    rman before shooting her as a display of his desire to control
    women. Defense counsel should have sought to prevent My‐
    ers from being portrayed as a rapist.
    In the end, we agree with the district court that counsel
    performed deficiently. We turn now to whether any of coun‐
    sel’s errors resulted in substantial prejudice to Myers.
    B. Prejudice
    Errors are prejudicial when there is a “reasonable proba‐
    bility” that the trial would have come out differently without
    them. Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    ; see also Cook v. Foster, 
    948 F.3d 896
    , 908 (7th Cir. 2020) (explaining and applying the
    same standard). “A reasonable probability,” the Supreme
    22                                                   No. 19‐3158
    Court has explained, “is a probability sufficient to undermine
    confidence in the outcome.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    . While
    the Supreme Court has avoided assigning a numerical proba‐
    bility to the inquiry, it has explained that the likelihood of a
    different result need not be “more likely than not” but none‐
    theless “must be substantial.” Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 111–12 (2011).
    Where, as here, the record shows more than one instance
    of deficient performance, the Sixth Amendment requires that
    we approach the prejudice inquiry by focusing on the cumu‐
    lative effect of trial counsel’s shortcomings. This direction
    comes from Strickland itself, where the Supreme Court in‐
    structed courts to “consider the totality of the evidence before
    the judge or jury.” 
    466 U.S. at 695
    . “Taking the unaffected
    findings as a given, and taking due account of the effect of the
    errors on the remaining findings, a court making the preju‐
    dice inquiry must ask if the defendant has met the burden of
    showing that the decision reached would reasonably likely
    have been different absent the errors.” 
    Id. at 696
    .
    We have read Strickland just this way—as mandating a cu‐
    mulative assessment of prejudice—on at least five prior occa‐
    sions. See, e.g., Harris v. Thompson, 
    698 F.3d 609
    , 648 (7th Cir.
    2012) (“The question is whether counsel’s entire performance
    at the hearing prejudiced Harris. By analyzing each deficiency
    in isolation, the [state] appellate court clearly misapplied the
    Strickland prejudice prong.”); Sussman v. Jenkins, 
    636 F.3d 329
    ,
    360 (7th Cir. 2011) (assessing the “cumulative impact” of
    counsel’s two errors); Goodman v. Bertrand, 
    467 F.3d 1022
    , 1030
    (7th Cir. 2006) (reversing the district court’s denial of a § 2254
    application because the state appellate court unreasonably
    applied federal law by “evaluating each error in isolation”
    No. 19‐3158                                                   23
    and not in their totality); Washington v. Smith, 
    219 F.3d 620
    ,
    634–35 (7th Cir. 2000) (explaining that the Strickland prejudice
    inquiry required an assessment of “the totality of the omitted
    evidence” and the other evidence presented to the jury); Alva‐
    rez v. Boyd, 
    225 F.3d 820
    , 824 (7th Cir. 2000) (explaining that
    the need to analyze errors together because their “synergistic”
    effects can make the “whole . . . greater than the sum of its
    parts”).
    The Indiana Court of Appeals did not undertake a cumu‐
    lative prejudice inquiry. It instead relied on its assessment of
    each individual error in isolation and then reasoned that be‐
    cause no one error met each of Strickland’s two prongs, a cu‐
    mulative analysis was unnecessary. The court defended its
    approach with sparse reasoning: “We have reviewed each of
    Myers’ claims of error in detail and concluded that none of
    them amount to ineffective assistance of counsel.” Myers, 33
    N.E.3d at 1114. It then offered the view that “trial irregulari‐
    ties” cannot be combined to “gain the stature of reversible er‐
    ror.” Id. (citing Kubsch v. State, 
    934 N.E.2d 1138
    , 1154 (Ind.
    2010)). That legal observation is at odds with Strickland itself
    and our prior conclusions.
    In these circumstances, where the state habeas court has
    not conducted a cumulative prejudice analysis, we must un‐
    dertake the inquiry on our own in the first instance. See Good‐
    man, 467 F.3d at 1030–31 (considering the impact of counsel’s
    errors in light of the strength of the other evidence presented
    to the jury de novo and therefore without deference to the state
    court’s findings).
    It is here that we part ways with the district court. In eval‐
    uating the state’s evidence against Myers, assessing defense
    counsel’s errors, and projecting how the trial may have
    24                                                   No. 19‐3158
    proceeded differently absent those errors, the district court
    found itself lacking confidence in the jury’s guilty verdict. The
    court emphasized the absence of physical evidence linking
    Myers to the murder and, even more generally, any proof of
    a prior connection between him and Behrman. And, as the
    district court saw it, the absence of such proof is what made
    Dr. Radentz’s rape testimony so prejudicial to Myers, for it al‐
    lowed the jury to assign a motive to what otherwise appeared
    an implausible crime. So, too, did the district court find that
    Myers suffered substantial prejudice when his counsel made
    no meaningful effort to show that Behrman rode her bike
    south (not north toward Myers’s home) the morning she dis‐
    appeared. That evidence would have been difficult for the
    prosecution to overcome, given the landline telephone rec‐
    ords showing that Myers was home making calls that morn‐
    ing. And that point is why, in the district court’s view, the
    bloodhound scent evidence mattered: it put Behrman close to
    Myers’s home and doomed his alibi.
    We see the evidence differently. Far from weak, the prose‐
    cution presented substantial evidence of Myers’s guilt. The
    district court failed to appreciate that, when taken together,
    the evidence of Myers’s guilt overwhelmed any prejudicial ef‐
    fect of defense counsel’s failings. The weight of the state’s case
    against Myers prevents him from showing that he suffered
    substantial prejudice from his trial counsel’s errors. See Strick‐
    land, 
    466 U.S. at 696
     (“[A] verdict or conclusion only weakly
    supported by the record is more likely to have been affected
    by errors than one with overwhelming record support.”);
    Cook, 948 F.3d at 909 (emphasizing the same point).
    To be sure, counsel’s deficient performance undoubtedly
    had some impact on the trial. The most troubling aspect of
    No. 19‐3158                                                   25
    counsel’s deficient performance—failing to object to Dr. Ra‐
    dentz’s testimony that Behrman was raped before she was
    murdered—allowed the state to supply the jury with a theory
    of motive. The state made the point as plain as day in its clos‐
    ing argument: “You know the motive in this crime is clear . . .
    when Doctor Radentz told you that this was a classic rape
    murder. Rape is a crime of control. Rape is not a sex crime. It
    is pure and simple control over another human being and
    dominating them.” The state used Dr. Radentz’s opinion to
    underscore the narrative that Myers, while reeling from his
    breakup with Carly Goodman, had a need to control people,
    especially women.
    But even without the testimony about rape, the state
    painted that picture about Myers through other means. The
    jury heard testimony showing that Myers lost his girlfriend,
    Carly Goodman, and had no luck trying to restore the rela‐
    tionship, including by unexpectedly showing up at her senior
    class trip and trying to join her at an amusement park in Lou‐
    isville before being turned away. The jury also heard from
    John Roell, who shared a cell with Myers in May 2005, that
    Myers spoke about Behrman using degrading language and
    saying that nothing had to happen to her if she would not
    have said anything—statements evincing Myers’s attempt to
    exert control over her. With all of this evidence, the state por‐
    trayed a defendant who lost control of one relationship and
    committed a horrific crime as part of trying to exercise control
    over a young woman of a similar age.
    As for counsel’s false promises during his opening state‐
    ment, we do not doubt that those damaged the theory of de‐
    fense that Brian Hollars committed the murder. The jury
    never heard any testimony about a bloodhound alerting to
    26                                                 No. 19‐3158
    Behrman’s scent near Hollars’s home or any argument be‐
    tween Hollars and Behrman in the days before her disappear‐
    ance.
    Counsel’s errors also weakened Myers’s alternate theory
    that Wendy Owings committed the murder. Recall that when
    she confessed, Owings said that she hit Behrman on Harrell
    Road on the south side of Bloomington. But by not objecting
    to the bloodhound evidence, counsel let the state provide sup‐
    port for its theory that Behrman rode her bike in the opposite
    direction the morning she went missing, making Owings’s in‐
    volvement seem implausible, especially given the recanted
    and admittedly false confession.
    In evaluating the whole trial picture, however, it becomes
    clear that the viability of the Hollars and Owings theories was
    significantly undermined for reasons other than counsel’s
    mistakes. The Owings theory depended on Behrman riding
    south, but apart from the bloodhound scent testimony, the
    jury heard evidence that she rode in the opposite direction.
    Remember that Behrman’s bike was found along North Ma‐
    ple Grove, less than a mile from Myers’s home. Nothing about
    the bloodhound scent testimony changed that evidentiary ob‐
    stacle for Myers. And from the outset, Hollars was not a seri‐
    ous suspect in the case. Indeed, the jury learned that the au‐
    thorities initially considered Hollars due only to the admoni‐
    tions from a psychic in Michigan.
    Much more significant, the state called both Hollars and
    Owings to testify at trial. Owings explained in detail the pres‐
    sure she felt from investigators and her own defense attorney
    to cooperate and confess to murdering Behrman since she was
    facing significant time on other charges. She also described
    how she formulated the fake story, in part by relying on her
    No. 19‐3158                                                27
    childhood experiences swimming and fishing in Salt Creek.
    For his part, Hollars denied any involvement in Behrman’s
    disappearance, described the very limited interactions he had
    with Behrman during her work at the Indiana University rec‐
    reation center, and explained that he was at work on the cam‐
    pus the morning she disappeared.
    Simply put, Myers could not compete with the testimony
    the prosecution presented from Owings and Hollars—evi‐
    dence presented almost certainly to prove to the jury that the
    state had charged the right person with Behrman’s murder.
    The testimony from Owings and Hollars diminished the
    strength of Myers’s defense to a much greater extent than any
    prejudice that independently followed from counsel’s failure
    to object to the bloodhound scent evidence or misleading
    opening statement.
    So, while we are quick to acknowledge counsel’s errors,
    we are confident that the defense theories that they impacted
    were sufficiently undermined, if not overwhelmed, by evi‐
    dence presented at trial. Any impact from those errors on the
    jury’s verdict pales in comparison to the strength of the evi‐
    dence the state presented against Myers:
       Behrman’s bike was found less than a mile
    from Myers’s home;
       The very day Behrman went missing, Myers
    was seen crying and took steps to cover his
    windows with blankets and move his car to
    prevent anyone from knowing he was home;
       Myers took his girlfriend to the approximate
    location in the Morgan County woods where
    28                                                   No. 19‐3158
    a hunter later came upon Behrman’s re‐
    mains;
       Myers had access to a 12‐gauge shotgun like
    the one that the experts opined was used in
    Behrman’s murder; and
       Myers made multiple self‐incriminating
    statements to many different people, with at
    least one of those statements being tanta‐
    mount to confessing to committing the mur‐
    der.
    The last point bears especially significant weight. The in‐
    criminating statements Myers made to so many different peo‐
    ple following Behrman’s disappearance make all the differ‐
    ence in determining whether defense counsel’s errors sub‐
    stantially affected the outcome of the trial. During an inter‐
    view with the investigators in 2005, he insisted that had not
    discussed the Behrman case with anyone except law enforce‐
    ment—a position at extreme odds with much of the other tes‐
    timony that the jury heard. See United States v. Rajewski, 
    526 F.2d 149
    , 158 (7th Cir. 1975) (“It is well settled that untrue ex‐
    culpatory statements may be considered as circumstantial ev‐
    idence of the defendant’s consciousness of guilt.”). Myers put
    himself front and center in the murder, conveying to many
    people an obsession with Behrman’s disappearance and
    death and thereby thwarting a meaningful chance of a suc‐
    cessful defense at trial.
    The list is long, so we will recap just a few of the most re‐
    vealing and inculpatory statements that Myers made. Just af‐
    ter Behrman went missing, Myers called his grandmother
    Betty Swaffard and asked for $200, telling her that he was a
    No. 19‐3158                                                      29
    suspect in the case. Around the same time, he showed up at
    his parents’ home crying and said he was leaving town and
    never coming back.
    Swaffard’s full testimony was devastating for Myers. She
    told the jury that in 2004 her grandson called her and said that
    he had “a lot of things [he] need[ed] to think about.” He then
    went further and told her that if the authorities knew about
    the things on his mind he would “be in prison for the rest of
    [his] life.” Later that night when he dropped his daughter off
    at Swaffard’s house, he cried and told her that he wished he
    “hadn’t done these bad things.” Swaffard heard these state‐
    ments as relating exclusively to Behrman, and, despite feel‐
    ings of deep‐seated family loyalty, felt compelled to come for‐
    ward and share the information with the authorities.
    Remember too that after Behrman’s disappearance, Myers
    told his mother that he had been fishing in a creek in the
    woods and came upon a “bone” and “panties.” He likewise
    told his cousin’s husband (before the authorities recovered
    Behrman’s remains) that he bet the police would find Beh‐
    rman’s body in the woods.
    Aside from these statements to family members, the jury
    heard from an array of friends, acquaintances, and commu‐
    nity members recalling similar comments. For example, My‐
    ers spoke frequently of the Behrman case and even aggran‐
    dized his role in it, like falsely telling his ex‐girlfriend that he
    was the one who found Behrman’s bike. Even more, he told
    his former coworker Dean Alexander during a discussion
    about Behrman that if he was going to hide a body, he would
    hide it up north in a wooded area. Myers’s comment fore‐
    shadowed what happened over a year later—Behrman’s re‐
    mains were found in the woods just north of Bloomington.
    30                                                   No. 19‐3158
    And then there was John Roell, Myers’s former cellmate who
    told the jurors that Myers brought up Behrman and her bicy‐
    cle repeatedly, called her a “bitch,” and said “if she wouldn’t
    have said anything, this probably . . . none of this would have
    happened.”
    All of this testimony regarding the unsolicited statements
    that Myers made to those around him about Behrman’s dis‐
    appearance and murder went untainted by any of his trial
    counsel’s errors and by any measure defeated his defense.
    Our examination of the record leaves us of the firm con‐
    viction that even without counsel’s errors, the jury would
    have reached the same conclusion and found John Myers
    guilty of murdering Jill Behrman. Because of the strength of
    the evidence presented at trial, our confidence in the jury’s
    decision is not undermined. See Lee v. Avila, 
    871 F.3d 565
    , 571
    (7th Cir. 2017) (finding no prejudice despite deficient perfor‐
    mance when “the state’s case was very strong” and made a
    different outcome “not reasonably probable”). Myers has
    fallen short of demonstrating what the Supreme Court has
    told us is essential to relief rooted in a claim of ineffective as‐
    sistance of counsel—that the “likelihood of a different result
    must be substantial.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at
    111–12.
    We close by noting that the district court, while granting
    Myers relief based on the three instances of ineffective assis‐
    tance of counsel analyzed in this opinion, acknowledged but
    did not definitively resolve other, lesser alleged instances of
    ineffective assistance. Our analysis of the strength of the
    state’s evidence forecloses relief based on these other allega‐
    tions of ineffective assistance. But we do remand for the sole
    purpose of allowing the district court to address the two
    claims Myers advanced under Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
    No. 19‐3158                                                   31
    (1963), in his § 2254 application. The district court reserved
    judgment on these claims. Our conclusions regarding the
    strength of the state’s evidence may well foreclose relief on
    those claims too, but the district court should assess the ques‐
    tion in the first instance as neither party briefed the claims in
    this appeal.
    We REVERSE the order granting Myers’s petition for a
    writ of habeas corpus and REMAND for the sole and limited
    purpose of allowing the district court to consider the unre‐
    solved Brady claims identified above.
    32                                                          No. 19‐3158
    Appendix
    Map Source: Indiana State Library, Indianapolis, IN
    1. John Myers’s home
    2. Location where Jill Behrman’s bike was found
    3. Brian Hollars’s home and location where one resident thought he
    saw Behrman cycling
    4. Jill Behrman’s home
    5. Location where another resident thought she saw Behrman cycling
    and where Wendy Owings said she was driving
    Not pictured: Jill Behrman’s remains were found about 20 miles north
    of Point 2.