United States v. Michael Coscia ( 2021 )


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  •                               In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    ____________________
    No. 19-2010
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff-Appellee,
    v.
    MICHAEL COSCIA,
    Defendant-Appellant.
    ____________________
    No. 20-1032
    MICHAEL COSCIA,
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    v.
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Respondent-Appellee.
    ____________________
    Appeals from the United States District Court for the
    Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    Nos. 14-cr-00551-1 & 19-cv-05003 — Harry D. Leinenweber, Judge.
    ____________________
    ARGUED DECEMBER 2, 2020 — DECIDED JULY 12, 2021
    ____________________
    2                                                 Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    Before EASTERBROOK, RIPPLE, and ROVNER, Circuit Judges.
    RIPPLE, Circuit Judge. A jury convicted Michael Coscia of
    six counts of commodities fraud, in violation of 18 U.S.C.
    1
    § 1348, and six counts of spoofing, in violation of 7 U.S.C.
    §§ 6c(a)(5)(C) and 13(a)(2). On direct appeal, we affirmed his
    2
    conviction. We now have before us the appeals of two pro-
    ceedings that Mr. Coscia initiated after we resolved his di-
    rect appeal. The first is a motion for a new trial on the basis
    of new evidence in which he alleges (1) that data discovered
    after trial establishes that there were errors in the data pre-
    sented to the jury and (2) that subsequent indictments
    against other traders for similar spoofing activities undercut
    the Government’s characterization of Mr. Coscia as “unique”
    or a trading “outlier.” The second proceeding is a motion to
    vacate his conviction pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    , in which
    Mr. Coscia claims that his trial counsel, Sullivan & Cromwell
    LLP, provided ineffective assistance of counsel. Specifically,
    he alleges that Sullivan & Cromwell had an undisclosed con-
    flict of interest with several of the Government’s witnesses
    and that this conflict adversely affected counsel’s perfor-
    mance. He also alleges that, even if there was no conflict of
    interest, his trial counsel nevertheless provided constitution-
    ally deficient representation.
    The district court denied both motions, and Mr. Coscia
    1 Spoofing is a disruptive trading practice in which a person submits
    bids or offers with the intent to cancel the bid or offer before it is execut-
    ed. See 7 U.S.C. § 6c(a)(5).
    2 United States v. Coscia, 
    866 F.3d 782
     (7th Cir. 2017).
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                                 3
    3
    now appeals. He submits that the district court abused its
    discretion when it denied his new trial motion. In his view,
    the newly discovered evidence demonstrated that key evi-
    dence relied on by the Government to establish his intent to
    spoof was false and inaccurate. As for his habeas motion, he
    contends that the district court correctly found that counsel
    had a conflict of interest, but incorrectly concluded that there
    was no adverse effect on counsel’s performance. He further
    submits that the district court erred in rejecting his argument
    that, even in the absence of a conflict of interest, his defense
    counsel’s performance was constitutionally deficient. In the
    alternative, Mr. Coscia requests further discovery and an ev-
    identiary hearing on his ineffective assistance of counsel
    claims.
    We now affirm the district court’s judgments on both the
    new trial and § 2255 motions. We conclude that the district
    court did not abuse its discretion in denying Mr. Coscia’s
    motion for a new trial on newly discovered evidence
    grounds. We further conclude that the district court correctly
    determined that Mr. Coscia failed to demonstrate an adverse
    effect or prejudice in either of his ineffective assistance of
    counsel claims.
    3 Mr. Coscia filed two separate notices of appeal for each of the two mo-
    tions denied by the district court. For the sake of judicial economy, we
    consolidated his appeals. We employ the standard “R.” and “Appellant’s
    Br.” when referring to Mr. Coscia’s appeal of his new trial motion, and
    “2255 R.” and “Appellant’s 2255 Br.” when referring to Mr. Coscia’s ap-
    peal of his § 2255 motion.
    4                                        Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    I
    BACKGROUND
    A.
    Mr. Coscia’s Trading Activity
    Michael Coscia was the principal of a futures trading
    firm, Panther Trading LLC. He traded commodity futures
    contracts on electronic exchanges operated by CME Group,
    Inc. (“CME”) and the Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
    (“ICE”). Trading firms such as Mr. Coscia’s use computer
    programs to execute trades that are carried out in fractions
    of a second. In our opinion affirming Mr. Coscia’s convic-
    tion, we described the basic process of high-frequency trad-
    ing:
    The simplest approaches take advantage of the
    minor discrepancies in the price of a security or
    commodity that often emerge across national
    exchanges. These price discrepancies allow
    traders to arbitrage between exchanges by buy-
    ing low on one and selling high on another.
    Because any such price fluctuations are often
    very small, significant profit can be made only
    on a high volume of transactions. Moreover,
    the discrepancies often last a very short period
    of time (i.e., fractions of a second); speed in ex-
    ecution is therefore an essential attribute for
    firms engaged in this business.
    United States v. Coscia, 
    866 F.3d 782
    , 786 (7th Cir. 2017).
    High-frequency trading can also be used “to artificially
    move the market price of a stock or commodity up and
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                                    5
    down, instead of taking advantage of natural market
    events.” 
    Id. at 787
    . This artificial movement can be accom-
    plished “by placing large and small orders on opposite sides
    of the market.” 
    Id.
     For example, if an unscrupulous trader
    wanted to buy, he would place a small order below the cur-
    rent market price. He would simultaneously place large or-
    ders to sell on the opposite side of the market. He would
    place these large sell orders at progressively lower prices un-
    til the purchase price matched the price at which the small
    buy order had been placed. The small order then would be
    executed, and the large orders would be cancelled. “Im-
    portantly, the large, market-shifting orders that he places to
    create this illusion are ones that he never intends to execute;
    if they were executed, our unscrupulous trader would risk
    extremely large amounts of money by selling at suboptimal
    prices.” 
    Id.
    Congress criminalized this practice, called “spoofing,” in
    2010 as part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Con-
    sumer Protection Act, Pub. L. No. 111-203, 
    124 Stat. 1376
    (2010). It became unlawful “to engage in any trading, prac-
    tice, or conduct on or subject to the rules of a registered enti-
    ty that … is, is of the character of, or is commonly known to
    the trade as, ‘spoofing’ (bidding or offering with the intent to
    4
    cancel the bid or offer before execution).” 7 U.S.C. § 6c(a)(5).
    4 “[A] bid is an order to buy and an offer is an order to sell.” Coscia, 866
    F.3d at 787.
    6                                      Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    B.
    Mr. Coscia’s Trial
    In August 2011, Mr. Coscia implemented two
    high-frequency trading programs that followed a specific
    pattern:
    When he wanted to purchase, Mr. Coscia
    would begin by placing a small order request-
    ing to trade at a price below the current market
    price. He then would place large-volume or-
    ders, known as “quote orders,” on the other
    side of the market. A small order could be as
    small as five futures contracts, whereas a large
    order would represent as many as fifty or more
    futures contracts. At times, his large orders
    risked up to $50 million. The large orders were
    generally placed in increments that quickly
    approached the price of the small orders.
    Coscia, 866 F.3d at 788 (footnotes omitted).
    A grand jury indicted Mr. Coscia for six counts of spoof-
    ing and six counts of commodities fraud based on his 2011
    trading activity. Trial began on October 26, 2015. The Gov-
    ernment set forth Mr. Coscia’s pattern of trading: placing
    small orders and large orders on opposite sides of the mar-
    ket, with the small orders filling once the desired price was
    met and the large orders immediately cancelled. The same
    pattern would then repeat in the opposite direction. Each of
    these patterns took place within one second or less. To estab-
    lish Mr. Coscia’s fraudulent intent, the Government present-
    ed (1) the testimony of Jeremiah Park, Mr. Coscia’s computer
    programmer; (2) testimony of representatives of ICE and
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                           7
    CME, who described Mr. Coscia’s trading activities and pre-
    sented charts summarizing relevant trading data; (3) testi-
    mony of other traders on the effect of Mr. Coscia’s trading
    on their businesses; (4) Mr. Coscia’s deposition testimony
    taken by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; and
    (5) the rebuttal testimony of financial markets expert Hank
    Bessembinder.
    Park testified that he created, at Mr. Coscia’s direction,
    two programs: Flash Trader and Quote Trader. He con-
    firmed that Mr. Coscia had specified that the programs were
    5
    to act “[l]ike a decoy” to “pump [the] market.” Specifically,
    the large-volume orders were designed to avoid being filled
    and would be cancelled based on (1) the passage of time, (2)
    the partial filling of large orders, or (3) the complete filling of
    a small order. These cancellation settings were intended to
    reduce the risk that the large orders would be filled. After
    the large orders were cancelled, the program would reenact
    the trades in reverse.
    The Government also presented representatives of ICE
    and CME who testified about trading data summarized in
    data charts. The court admitted, without objection, six ICE
    summary charts and six CME summary charts. John Red-
    man, the director of compliance for ICE, testified about the
    ICE data and summary charts. Ryan Cobb, a data scientist
    for CME, testified about the CME data and summary charts.
    Both Redman’s and Cobb’s testimony supported the Gov-
    ernment’s view that Mr. Coscia had engaged in a specific
    trading pattern that was outside trading norms. We briefly
    5 R.86 at 231, 235 (Tr. 498, 502).
    8                                               Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    review the charts relevant to this appeal.
    ICE Summary Chart 2 compared the rate at which
    Mr. Coscia filled his large orders to the rate at which he
    filled his small orders on the ICE market. Redman testified
    that between August and October 2011, Mr. Coscia had
    placed 24,814 large orders and had traded on 0.5% of those
    orders. In contrast, Mr. Coscia had placed 6,782 small orders
    6
    and had traded on approximately 52% of those orders.
    ICE Summary Chart 3 displayed Mr. Coscia’s “or-
    der-to-trade ratio,” or “the average size of the order he
    showed to the market divided by the average size of the or-
    7
    ders filled.” This chart compared the activity of Mr. Coscia’s
    firm on the ICE market to the activity of others trading at
    approximately the same volume. ICE Summary Chart 3
    showed that Mr. Coscia’s average order size was 39.8 lots,
    but his average trade size was 2.5 lots. Thus, Mr. Coscia’s
    order-to-trade ratio was 1,592%. According to the chart, oth-
    er trading entities had ratios between 91% to 264%.
    ICE Summary Chart 6 displayed Mr. Coscia’s share of
    cancellations of large orders that followed the trade of a
    small order in the opposite direction. This chart showed that,
    between September and October 2011, Mr. Coscia cancelled
    large orders 14,563 times following the execution of
    small-order trades; other market participants followed this
    pattern only 671 times combined. Thus, according to the
    chart, Mr. Coscia accounted for 96% of all of the cancelled
    6 See R.177-31.
    7 Coscia, 866 F.3d at 789; see also R.177-32.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                                   9
    large orders that followed the execution of a small order in
    the opposite direction on the ICE exchange.
    CME Summary Charts 2 and 3 compared the rates at
    which Mr. Coscia filled large and small orders, referred to as
    a “fill-rate differential.” These charts showed that, on the
    CME markets, Mr. Coscia filled 35.61% of his small orders,
    but only 0.08% of his large orders, resulting in a 35.53%
    fill-rate differential.
    CME Summary Chart 5 showed how Mr. Coscia ranked
    among all trading entities in the same markets in terms of
    large orders placed (“large order entry rank”) and large or-
    8
    ders actually traded (“volume rank”). Mr. Coscia ranked
    first, entering the most large orders in eleven of the seven-
    teen CME commodities. Mr. Coscia’s volume rank for large
    orders actually traded, however, was significantly lower
    9
    across all commodities.
    Finally, the Government introduced testimony of other
    traders, some of whom lost hundreds of thousands of dollars
    as a result of Mr. Coscia’s trading activity. Anand Twells, a
    trading supervisor at Citadel, LLC, testified that in a transac-
    tion with Panther Trading, it lost “about $480” in “roughly
    10
    400 milliseconds.”              Hovannes Dermenchyan, the global
    8 See R.177-5.
    9 To illustrate, Ryan Cobb testified that in the Australian dollar market,
    Mr. Coscia ranked first, entering more large orders than any other partic-
    ipant, but was only the thirty-third highest participant “in terms of actu-
    al trade volume.” R.86 at 135 (Tr. 402).
    10 R.88 at 30 (Tr. 635).
    10                                       Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    head of trading and markets at Teza Technologies, testified
    that his firm “lost $10,000 over the course of an hour” be-
    cause its programs were “induced into trading” by this sin-
    11
    gle participant’s behavior. “[E]very time that participant
    placed a very large order,” he went on, “it would induce this
    12
    specific strategy to trade on the opposite side.” Alexander
    Gerko, who was previously a portfolio manager at GSA
    Capital, testified that he “noticed a pattern of activity”
    where “very, very large orders appear[ed] on the market …,
    and then these orders would disappear from the bid and ap-
    13
    pear on the offer.” Gerko stated that his firm noticed this
    activity “because [they] started to lose a substantial amount
    14
    of money” from “trading with the small trade.” Finally,
    Jonathan Eddy, senior vice president at D.E. Shaw & Com-
    pany, testified that his firm’s computer program considered
    “order imbalance” in the market as a factor in whether it
    15
    trades. Eddy explained that its program was “more likely
    to want to sell” when there were more orders to sell in the
    market; after multiple large orders to sell were placed at de-
    16
    creasing prices, its program also placed an order to sell.
    11 Id. at 51 (Tr. 656).
    12 Id.
    13 Id. at 90 (Tr. 695).
    14 Id. at 91, 105 (Tr. 696, 710).
    15 R.89 at 5 (Tr. 762).
    16 Id.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                         11
    In his defense, Mr. Coscia maintained that his trading
    was legitimate because each order placed was an order ca-
    pable of being filled prior to its cancellation. He testified that
    the strategy of his programs was to “make a lopsided market
    17
    and hope to get traded on the better of the offer.” If the
    small order was executed, the large order would be can-
    celled; if the large order was executed, the small order
    would be cancelled. Mr. Coscia also testified that he had no
    preference, and sometimes did not even know, whether his
    small or large orders were filled.
    In rebuttal, the Government presented testimony from
    financial markets expert Hank Bessembinder. He testified
    that Mr. Coscia’s trading was materially different from that
    of other high-frequency traders. In contrast to Mr. Coscia’s
    claims of indifference as to which of his orders were filled,
    Bessembinder testified that “[t]he outcomes don’t seem to
    reflect that same sort of even balance” of an indifferent trad-
    18
    er.        Rather, “the outcomes are far, far from being 50/50 or
    19
    equal outcomes on both sides of the market.” Bessembin-
    der added that “[t]here were more than 10 times as many
    contracts traded on the small orders as compared to the
    20
    large orders.” Mr. Coscia “was entering over 60 percent of
    his orders as large orders, whereas, the other high-frequency
    17 Id. at 119–20 (Tr. 876–77).
    18 R.91 at 117 (Tr. 1363).
    19 Id.
    20 Id. at 117–18 (Tr. 1363–64).
    12                                           Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    traders were entering only about a quarter of one percent of
    21
    their orders as large orders.” But Mr. Coscia cancelled “[a]
    little over 97 percent” of his large orders within one second,
    while other high-frequency trading firms canceled their
    large orders within one second “[j]ust under 35 percent” of
    22
    the time. Further, Bessembinder testified that Mr. Coscia’s
    large-order fill rate did not account for his successive at-
    tempts to cancel orders that failed because the order had al-
    23
    ready fully executed milliseconds earlier.
    The jury convicted Mr. Coscia on all twelve counts. The
    court sentenced Mr. Coscia to a term of thirty-six months’
    imprisonment, followed by two years’ supervised release.
    Mr. Coscia filed a motion for judgment of acquittal and for a
    24
    new trial, both of which the district court denied.
    21 Id. at 123 (Tr. 1369).
    22 Id. at 125 (Tr. 1371).
    23 Id. at 106–09 (Tr. 1352–55) (describing an exhibit that showed an entry
    that an order had filled, followed by two cancellation entries that ap-
    peared milliseconds after that generated “order not found error
    code[s]”).
    24 Mr. Coscia’s first new trial motion, which is not before us, was made
    on the basis that Mr. Coscia’s convictions were “against the weight of the
    evidence, the jury was not properly instructed, and the Government in-
    troduced inadmissible, false, and prejudicial testimony.” R.96 at 1. The
    motion before us is Mr. Coscia’s second new trial motion on the basis of
    newly discovered evidence. See R.219; R.220.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                       13
    C.
    Direct Appeal
    Mr. Coscia appealed his conviction and sentence, and we
    affirmed. Coscia, 866 F.3d at 782. In his appeal, Mr. Coscia
    challenged the anti-spoofing statute as unconstitutionally
    vague. He also contended that the Government produced
    insufficient evidence to support his spoofing conviction.
    We first held that the anti-spoofing statute provided suf-
    ficient notice and that “Mr. Coscia’s actions [fell] well within
    the core of the anti-spoofing provision’s prohibited conduct,
    precluding any claim that he was subject to arbitrary en-
    forcement.” Id. at 795. With respect to the sufficiency of the
    evidence, we observed:
    As we have noted earlier, a conviction for
    spoofing requires that the prosecution prove
    beyond a reasonable doubt that Mr. Coscia
    knowingly entered bids or offers with the pre-
    sent intent to cancel the bid or offer prior to ex-
    ecution. Mr. Coscia’s trading history clearly
    indicates that he cancelled the vast majority of
    his large orders. Accordingly, the only issue is
    whether a rational trier of fact could have
    found that Mr. Coscia possessed an intent to
    cancel the large orders at the time he placed
    them.
    A review of the trial evidence reveals the fol-
    lowing. First, Mr. Coscia’s cancellations repre-
    sented 96% of all Brent futures cancellations on
    the Intercontinental Exchange during the
    two-month period in which he employed his
    14                                     Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    software. Second, on the Chicago Mercantile
    Exchange, 35.61% of his small orders were
    filled, whereas only 0.08% of his large orders
    were filled. Similarly, only 0.5% of his large
    orders were filled on the Intercontinental Ex-
    change. Third, the designer of the programs,
    Jeremiah Park, testified that the programs were
    designed to avoid large orders being filled.
    Fourth, Park further testified that the “quote
    orders” were “[u]sed to pump [the] market,”
    suggesting that they were designed to inflate
    prices through illusory orders. Fifth, according
    to one study, only 0.57% of Coscia’s large or-
    ders were on the market for more than one
    second, whereas 65% of large orders entered
    by other high-frequency traders were open for
    more than a second. Finally, Mathew Evans,
    the senior vice president of NERA Economic
    Consulting, testified that Coscia’s or-
    der-to-trade ratio was 1,592%, whereas the or-
    der-to-trade ratio for other market participants
    ranged from 91% to 264%.
    Id. at 795–96 (alterations in original) (footnotes omitted). We
    therefore concluded that, “when evaluated in its totality, the
    cumulative evidence certainly allowed a rational trier of fact
    to determine that Mr. Coscia entered his orders with the in-
    tent to cancel them before their execution.” Id. at 796.
    We decided Mr. Coscia’s direct appeal on August 7, 2017.
    On January 10, 2019, Mr. Coscia filed in the district court a
    second motion for a new trial. The district court denied this
    motion on May 15, 2019. Two months later, Mr. Coscia filed
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                                   15
    a motion to vacate his conviction under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    . The
    district court denied this motion on December 12, 2019. The
    district court’s decisions on these two motions are before us
    today. For ease of reading, we discuss each separately in this
    opinion. We first will address the district court’s denial of
    the second motion for a new trial; we then turn to the motion
    under § 2255. In each discussion, we will set forth additional
    particular facts pertinent to our analysis.
    II
    The Motion for A New Trial
    A.
    Governing Standards
    We review a district court’s denial of a motion for new
    trial based on newly discovered evidence for an abuse of
    discretion. United States v. Reyes, 
    542 F.3d 588
    , 595 (7th Cir.
    2008). District courts may “grant a new trial if the interest of
    justice so requires.” Fed. R. Crim. P. 33(a). Granting a new
    trial in the “interest of justice” is “‘reserved for only the most
    extreme cases,’ and we ‘approach such motions with great
    caution and are wary of second-guessing the determinations
    of both judge and jury.’” United States v. Hagler, 
    700 F.3d 1091
    , 1101 (7th Cir. 2012) (first quoting United States v. Lin-
    wood, 
    142 F.3d 418
    , 422 (7th Cir. 1998); and then quoting
    25
    United States v. McGee, 
    408 F.3d 966
    , 979 (7th Cir. 2005)).
    25 See also United States v. Kamel, 
    965 F.2d 484
    , 490 (7th Cir. 1992) (“Be-
    cause of the importance accorded to considerations of repose, regularity
    of decision-making and conservation of scarce judicial resources, courts
    exercise ‘great caution’ in setting aside a verdict reached after ful-
    (continued … )
    16                                           Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    In seeking a new trial, based on newly discovered evi-
    dence, the defendant must demonstrate that the new evi-
    dence “(1) was discovered after trial, (2) could not have been
    discovered sooner through the exercise of due diligence, (3)
    is material and not merely impeaching or cumulative, and
    (4) probably would have led to acquittal.” United States v.
    O’Malley, 
    833 F.3d 810
    , 813 (7th Cir. 2016). In an effort to
    meet these criteria, Mr. Coscia presents two categories of
    “newly discovered” evidence: (1) ICE and CME data dis-
    closed post-trial, and (2) subsequent indictments against
    other traders for similar activities. We address each of these
    categories in turn.
    B.
    Newly Discovered Data
    The first category of newly discovered evidence prof-
    fered by Mr. Coscia is data disclosed post-trial by ICE and
    CME. In Mr. Coscia’s view, this newly discovered infor-
    mation raises a significant question regarding the accuracy
    of the charts that the Government employed at trial to estab-
    lish that he intentionally had engaged in spoofing.
    1. Background
    During pretrial discovery, ICE and CME produced cer-
    tain data that the Government intended to use at trial
    through the summary charts that we described earlier. One
    month before trial, Mr. Coscia’s counsel requested produc-
    ( … continued)
    ly-conducted proceedings; this is particularly appropriate when, as here,
    the action has been tried before a jury.” (footnotes omitted)).
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                               17
    tion of these charts. The Government responded that it had
    not yet prepared the summary charts but that “the infor-
    mation that they summarize ha[d] already been produced”
    26
    to the defense.
    Mr. Coscia’s counsel independently issued four subpoe-
    nas: one subpoena to ICE for the audit trail of ten market
    participants on the ICE Brent Crude Futures market over a
    27
    two-month period; and three subpoenas to CME for,
    among other things, the full audit trail for Mr. Coscia’s or-
    28
    ders, audit trail information from August to October 2011
    29
    covering eight contracts, and more specific information
    about the activity of eight high-frequency trading compa-
    nies.
    Following trial but before sentencing, CME produced a
    complete record of all market participants’ order and trading
    histories covering approximately ten weeks in all seventeen
    30
    markets in which Mr. Coscia had traded. Through Sullivan
    26 R.227-8 at 2.
    27 See R.227-4.
    28 See R.227-2.
    29 See R.227-3.
    30 It is not clear from the record how Mr. Coscia obtained the CME data
    post-trial. The Government notes that Mr. Coscia received data from
    CME that neither he nor the Government possessed at the time of trial,
    and that “[d]efense counsel refused to explain how defendant obtained
    this new CME data.” Appellee’s Br. 24 n.7; see also R.224 at 2 n.2 (“On
    January 18, 2019, the [Government] requested that defense counsel dis-
    close when and how defendant sought this data from CME. Defense
    (continued … )
    18                                           Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    & Cromwell, and later Kobre & Kim LLP, Mr. Coscia at-
    tempted to obtain the full audit trail data of all market par-
    ticipants on the Brent Crude Futures market for the period
    between September 6, 2011 and October 18, 2011, as well as
    personal and confidential information relating to govern-
    ment witness Hovannes Dermenchyan. During Mr. Coscia’s
    attempt to obtain additional data from ICE, that exchange
    disclosed that it had inadvertently failed to produce all of
    the data underlying ICE Summary Chart 6 to either the Gov-
    ernment or the defense before trial. The court denied
    Mr. Coscia’s request to subpoena ICE for its full audit trail
    data but ordered ICE to produce the information that had
    been used to create ICE Summary Chart 6.
    ICE complied with the court’s order to produce the data
    used to create ICE Summary Chart 6. In its letter producing
    the data, ICE explained that the order cancellations dis-
    played in ICE Summary Chart 6 are “based on an ICE sys-
    tem tool that, for regulatory purposes, generates an alert
    31
    when the tool detects suspicious trading activity.” ICE also
    disclosed that, “due to an inadvertent error in calculating the
    total alerts from the Backup Data to create Summary Chart 6,
    the totals for the alerts for Mr. Coscia and ‘All other partici-
    ( … continued)
    counsel responded, on January 22, that it would be a ‘substantial burden’
    to obtain this information, but confirmed that defendant did not have
    before trial the CME data on which his [second motion for a new trial]
    relies.”).
    31 R.222-3 at 2.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                       19
    32
    pants’ … were misstated.” Specifically, Mr. Coscia ac-
    counted for 14,141 of the alerts (not 14,563), and “All other
    participants” accounted for 1,328 of the alerts (not 671).
    2. The Present Motion
    On January 10, 2019, Mr. Coscia filed a second motion for
    a new trial based on newly discovered evidence, the motion
    now before us. In this motion, Mr. Coscia first submitted that
    the newly disclosed ICE and CME data established that
    there were errors in the data presented to the jury.
    Mr. Coscia also submitted that subsequent indictments
    against other traders for similar spoofing activities undercut
    the Government’s characterization of Mr. Coscia as “unique”
    or that he was a trading “outlier.”
    In response, the Government submitted that Mr. Coscia
    had failed to establish that this data would have been una-
    vailable to him prior to trial if he had exercised due dili-
    gence. The Government pointed out that Mr. Coscia did not
    subpoena ICE for its trading data until five months after the
    conclusion of trial. Thus, the Government submitted that
    Mr. Coscia’s lack of due diligence alone was fatal to his re-
    quest for a new trial.
    Mr. Coscia replied that the data that he received after tri-
    al proved that there were material errors in the evidence
    presented to the jury. In particular, he invited the court’s at-
    tention to five charts: ICE Summary Charts 3 and 6, and
    CME Charts 2, 3, and 5. We therefore briefly review each of
    the alleged errors that Mr. Coscia identified and the Gov-
    32 
    Id. at 3
    .
    20                                     Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    ernment’s response.
    ICE Summary Chart 3. ICE Summary Chart 3 showed that,
    on the ICE New Brent crude market, Mr. Coscia’s or-
    der-to-trade ratio of 1,592% was significantly greater than
    the ratio of any other market participant. The closest firm
    had a ratio of 264%. Mr. Coscia maintained that the new
    CME data conclusively establishes that there were actually
    dozens and even hundreds of traders with order-to-trade
    ratios greater than 1,592% for each of the seventeen com-
    modities traded on the CME.
    The Government responded that Mr. Coscia “glosses
    over his misleading juxtaposition of data from CME markets
    against data from ICE markets[] without ever establishing:
    (1) that CME and ICE markets are comparable (i.e., ‘ap-
    ples-to-apples’); or (2) what defendant’s order-to-trade-size
    33
    ratios were for each of the seventeen CME commodities.”
    ICE Summary Chart 6. ICE Summary Chart 6 reflected
    that Mr. Coscia accounted for 96% of all large orders can-
    celled after a small order was filled in the opposite direction.
    Mr. Coscia contends, however, that the new data presents
    two issues. First, he stated that ICE Summary Chart 6 was
    presented to the jury as a summary of all order cancellations,
    when actually it was based on a limited set of data based on
    ICE’s regulatory tool that generated alerts when the tool de-
    tected suspicious activity. The full data, he submitted, actu-
    ally shows that his transactions “represented a fraction of
    33 R.224 at 9.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                        21
    34
    one percent of all order cancellations.” Second, he noted
    that, as ICE disclosed post-trial, the numbers generated in
    the chart were inaccurate. Mr. Coscia represented 91%, as
    opposed to 96%, of the alerts.
    In reply, the Government first submitted that Mr. Coscia
    misunderstood and misrepresented the testimony at trial.
    Redman specifically testified that ICE Summary Chart 6
    showed a specific type of cancellations: cancellations of large
    orders that followed the trading of a small order in the other
    direction. In any event, suggested the Government, demon-
    strating Mr. Coscia’s overall cancellation rate of less than one
    percent and ICE’s inadvertent, and minor, counting error
    only served to impeach the data presented at trial.
    CME Summary Charts 2 and 3. CME Summary Charts 2
    and 3 demonstrated that Mr. Coscia filled 35.61% of his
    small orders, but only 0.08% of his large orders, resulting in
    a 35.53% fill-rate differential. Mr. Coscia submitted that the
    post-trial CME data shows that Mr. Coscia’s 35.53% fill rate
    was not abnormal or uncommon, as there were “dozens and
    even hundreds of traders” in each of the seventeen CME
    35
    markets who had fill-rate differentials greater than 35.53%.
    In his view, it was simply untrue that his trading patterns
    were unique.
    In reply, the Government submitted that Mr. Coscia’s
    updated data analysis misleadingly “pitt[ed] defendant’s ag-
    gregate differential against the commodity-specific differentials
    34 R.220 at 7.
    35 
    Id. at 19
    .
    22                                     Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    36
    of other traders.” The Government further observed that
    “defendant’s newly-proffered evidence does not demon-
    strate that any other trader across the CME markets had an
    37
    aggregate fill-rate differential higher than 35.53%.” In the
    Government’s view, then, tallying the number of individual
    traders with higher fill-rate differentials in a single commod-
    ity market—without knowing what each trader’s aggregate
    fill-rate differential was across all markets or if each trader
    traded in all seventeen markets as Mr. Coscia—was of little
    value when compared against Mr. Coscia’s aggregate
    fill-rate differential for all seventeen markets.
    CME Summary Chart 5. Finally, Mr. Coscia contended
    that the newly-produced data demonstrated that CME
    Summary Chart 5, which reflected that Mr. Coscia was a
    market leader in placing large orders but ranked lower in
    filling large orders, was inaccurate in three ways. First, the
    chart failed to include modifications of orders. Second, the
    data compared Mr. Coscia’s individual trading activity to
    trading activity of firms, which were comprised of dozens of
    individual traders. Third, the chart showed how Mr. Coscia
    ranked in large orders placed compared to both large and
    small orders filled. Mr. Coscia’s updated analysis included
    order modifications, which reduced Mr. Coscia’s overall
    cancellation rate. Moreover, considering only large orders
    filled, as opposed to large and small orders, Mr. Coscia had
    among the highest fill rates of anyone in the industry, and
    much more comparable order and fill rankings relative to
    36 R.224 at 10.
    37 
    Id.
     (emphasis added).
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                         23
    other traders.
    The Government countered that including modifications
    is misleading, as “defendant’s spoofing algorithm was not
    38
    programmed to modify—but to cancel—large orders.” And
    in any event, the exclusion of modifications was discussed
    on cross-examination. Further, the Government submitted
    that its rebuttal witness, Bessembinder, “testified that de-
    fendant’s large-order fill rate offers only a partial picture,
    overlooking his successive attempts to cancel orders filled
    39
    milliseconds before his cancellation instructions arrived.”
    3. District Court’s Ruling
    The district court found Mr. Coscia’s presentation of this
    new evidence problematic because it was not relevant to the
    actual defense that he had presented at trial. Mr. Coscia’s
    defense “admitted the substance of his trading activity,”
    “claimed that this was a legitimate trading strategy,” and
    “argued that many traders pursued trading strategies simi-
    lar to his.” 40 Observing that “the most likely use of the
    so-called newly discovered evidence would be to impeach
    the government’s witnesses,” which could not serve as the
    basis for a new trial, the district court concluded that the
    new statistical evidence would probably not lead to an ac-
    quittal. 41 The district court also rejected the subsequent in-
    38 
    Id. at 8
    .
    39 
    Id. at 9
    .
    40 R.233 at 4.
    41 
    Id. at 5
    .
    24                                     Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    dictments, concluding that “[a]ny such evidence would
    42
    hardly be relevant or material.” As the district court saw it,
    “[t]hat others may have employed illegal trading strategies
    does not constitute a defense to a criminal indictment based
    43
    on the employment of illegal trading strategies.” Finding
    that none of the new evidence satisfied the requirements for
    a new trial and that the jury was completely justified in con-
    cluding that Mr. Coscia was guilty, the district court denied
    Mr. Coscia’s motion for a new trial.
    4. Our Assessment
    We now evaluate Mr. Coscia’s arguments. We ask first
    whether he established that the ICE and CME data disclosed
    after trial constitutes new evidence. In short, Mr. Coscia must
    demonstrate that he could not have discovered the data
    sooner through the exercise of due diligence. See United
    States v. Westmoreland, 
    712 F.3d 1066
    , 1073 (7th Cir. 2013). A
    claim of diligence, however, is seriously undermined when
    the defendant fails to have a subpoena issued or fails to re-
    quest a continuance because critical evidence was not avail-
    able. See United States v. Oliver, 
    683 F.2d 224
    , 228 (7th Cir.
    1982) (holding that failure to exercise diligence in locating
    witnesses before trial precluded new trial based on newly
    discovered evidence). Mr. Coscia must show that the failure
    to obtain production of this new information was not due to
    his lack of diligence.
    42 Id. at 7.
    43 Id.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                      25
    Recall that, after trial concluded, Mr. Coscia obtained
    from CME a complete audit trail covering approximately ten
    weeks of all market participants for every market in which
    he traded. In addition, while the court was considering the
    Government’s motion to quash Mr. Coscia’s post-trial sub-
    poena, ICE disclosed that it inadvertently had failed to turn
    over the data underlying ICE Summary Chart 6, which set
    out Mr. Coscia’s share of cancellations of large orders fol-
    lowing the trade of a small order in the opposite direction. In
    accordance with the court’s order, ICE then produced the
    data underlying ICE Summary Chart 6 and disclosed that
    the original numbers on the chart were misstated: Mr. Coscia
    accounted for 14,141, not 14,563, of such cancellations, and
    all other participants accounted for 1,328, not 671, of such
    cancellations.
    Mr. Coscia submits that this information constitutes new
    evidence because he was entitled to rely at trial on the Gov-
    ernment’s representations that he had all of the data. He
    points out that, in response to his request for the summary
    charts, the Government had responded: “We have not yet
    prepared the summary charts, but the information that they
    44
    summarize has already been produced to you.” He also
    notes that ICE witness John Redman confirmed at trial that
    he had reviewed the data on the ICE disk and that the sum-
    mary charts were true and accurate summaries of the data
    on the ICE disk.
    First of all, to the extent Mr. Coscia intimates that he was
    not provided any of the data underlying any of the summary
    44 R.227-8 at 2.
    26                                           Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    45
    charts, that contention is, to put it mildly, overblown. Prior
    to trial, Mr. Coscia obtained data through discovery and his
    own independent subpoenas. Indeed, Mr. Coscia’s own ex-
    pert witness used that data to create his own summary
    charts. We therefore cannot accept Mr. Coscia’s suggestion
    that he was deprived of complete data underlying all of the
    ICE and CME summary charts. Indeed, the representations
    made to him were in large part true. It was only the underly-
    ing data for ICE Summary Chart 6 that was lacking as re-
    vealed by ICE’s post-trial disclosure that it inadvertently had
    failed to produce that material to either party. The newly
    discovered material with respect to Summary Chart 6 dis-
    closed errors, but those errors can be characterized accurate-
    ly as de minimis. Of all the large order cancellations follow-
    ing small order trades in the opposite direction, Mr. Coscia
    accounted for 91%, not 96% of such trades. Importantly, the
    data continues to show that Mr. Coscia, more than any other
    market participant, engaged in a pattern of cancelling large
    orders after trading a small order in the opposite direction.
    Mr. Coscia simply has not demonstrated how the limited
    non-disclosure of ICE Summary Chart 6 casts doubt on all of
    the summary charts from both ICE and CME. Nor has he
    connected the missing data from ICE Summary Chart 6 to
    any explanation of why he failed to obtain earlier the data he
    sought after trial. In an effort to meet the latter burden, he
    points to the four subpoenas that he issued prior to trial as
    proof of his diligence. 46 These subpoenas were crafted, how-
    45 See Appellant’s Br. 39–40, 45–46.
    46 See R.227-2; R.227-3; R.227-4; R.227-5.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                          27
    ever, to produce specifically described information. For ex-
    ample, Mr. Coscia’s single ICE subpoena requested the audit
    trail data for only ten trading firms between September 6,
    2011 and October 18, 2011, as well as the data underlying the
    47
    statistics in its Suspicious Trading Report. Mr. Coscia’s
    subpoenas to CME were cabined to his own orders and
    trades, orders and trade data of specific entities, and audit
    trail data for eight markets on four dates. It was not until
    well after trial that Mr. Coscia sought the full audit trail of all
    CME transactions and all ICE transactions. Mr. Coscia has
    not demonstrated why he was unable to obtain, through
    compulsory process, the full audit trail data he has since ob-
    tained or why he did not request a continuance prior to trial
    to obtain those records.
    Even if we were to assume that this new evidence could
    not have been discovered sooner through the exercise of due
    diligence, Mr. Coscia fails to explain convincingly how this
    new information is material. In the context of a motion for a
    new trial, evidence is considered material “if there is a rea-
    sonable probability that, had the evidence been disclosed to
    the defense, the result of the proceeding would have been
    different.” United States v. Bagley, 
    473 U.S. 667
    , 682 (1985).
    Mr. Coscia has not carried his burden of demonstrating that
    the new information here seriously called into question the
    jury verdict. Instead, the new information would serve only
    as impeachment evidence against some of the Government’s
    witnesses. Given the amount and strength of the other evi-
    47 See R.227-4.
    28                                             Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    dence against Mr. Coscia, this simply does not warrant a
    new trial. 48
    Moreover, his materiality arguments with respect to the
    post-trial information fail because his proposed modifica-
    tions to the data analysis presented at trial are either inaccu-
    rate or misleading. Additionally, many of the purported is-
    sues with the data could have been elicited on
    cross-examination at trial. We first examine Mr. Coscia’s at-
    tempts to recharacterize the analyses presented at trial. We
    then turn to those matters that could have been examined
    through cross-examination.
    Mr. Coscia relies on the post-trial data to recast the sum-
    mary charts presented at trial. The new data analysis
    Mr. Coscia urges us to adopt, however, misrepresents the
    data or requires us to make unjustified inferences. For in-
    stance, Mr. Coscia requests that we make comparisons be-
    tween different sets of data that can be compared only by
    accepting false equivalencies. ICE Summary Chart 3 showed
    Mr. Coscia’s order-to-trade ratio to be 1,592% on the ICE
    Brent Futures market, whereas the next firm down had a ra-
    48 See Kamel, 
    965 F.2d at 493
     (“A new trial will not be granted if the evi-
    dence offered is merely impeaching or cumulative; it must be material.”).
    Although “[i]t is true that, typically, newly discovered impeachment ev-
    idence does not warrant relief under Rule 33,” United States v. Reyes, 
    542 F.3d 588
    , 596 (7th Cir. 2008), we have cautioned that this is not a categor-
    ical rule, see United States v. Taglia, 
    922 F.2d 413
    , 415–16 (7th Cir. 1991).
    For example, “[i]f the government’s case rested entirely on the uncorrob-
    orated testimony of a single witness who was discovered after trial to be
    utterly unworthy of being believed …, the district judge would have the
    power to grant a new trial in order to prevent an innocent person from
    being convicted.” 
    Id. at 415
    . This simply is not the case here.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                        29
    tio of only 264%. To undermine the ICE data summarized in
    ICE Summary Chart 3, Mr. Coscia invites our attention to the
    CME data that he obtained post-trial and asks us to conclude
    that “literally dozens, and sometimes hundreds” of traders
    49
    had order-to-trade ratios greater than 1,592%. Mr. Coscia
    reasons, without any support, that “[g]iven the robustness of
    the CME data,” we may assume that the additional ICE data
    would show similar results to the CME data. 50 Focusing on
    this evidence, he asserts that he was not the outlier the Gov-
    ernment made him out to be. We decline to rely on CME da-
    ta to make unsupported assumptions about the validity of
    the ICE data. Notably, Mr. Coscia has hampered our ability
    to compare the CME order-to-trade ratios by not sharing
    what his own order-to-trade ratio was for each of the CME
    commodities.
    Mr. Coscia attempts to discredit CME Summary Charts 2
    and 3 with another apples-to-oranges comparison. CME
    Summary Charts 2 and 3 showed that Mr. Coscia had an ag-
    gregate 35.53% “fill-rate differential,” the difference between
    Mr. Coscia’s small-order fill rate and large-order fill rate,
    across all seventeen CME markets. Mr. Coscia, with the new
    CME data in hand, observes that “dozens and even hun-
    dreds of traders” had fill-rate differentials greater than his
    35.53%, counting 1,189 “unique traders” with larger fill-rate
    51
    differentials.           This summation, however, is achieved by
    49 Appellant’s Br. 33.
    50 
    Id.
     at 33 n.8.
    51 
    Id.
     at 34–35.
    30                                      Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    counting each trader with a commodity-specific differential
    greater than Mr. Coscia’s aggregate fill-rate differential
    across all markets. For us to see it Mr. Coscia’s way, we must
    compare the fill-rate differentials of specific traders in single
    commodity markets against his aggregate fill-rate differen-
    tial across seventeen markets. Without establishing whether
    the other traders traded in each of the same seventeen mar-
    kets as Mr. Coscia or what the aggregate fill-rate differentials
    were for each of the “unique traders” Mr. Coscia identifies,
    Mr. Coscia has not met his burden demonstrating that this is
    an apt comparison.
    Mr. Coscia also attempts to use the data to support prop-
    ositions that we do not think can be fairly maintained.
    Mr. Coscia challenges several aspects of ICE Summary Chart
    6, which showed Mr. Coscia’s share of cancellations of large
    orders following a small order filled in the opposite direc-
    tion. Mr. Coscia first contends that ICE Summary Chart 6
    was presented to the jury as a chart showing all order cancel-
    lations among all other participants. Relying on the post-trial
    data, Mr. Coscia observes that, “of the 71,785,276 cancella-
    tions in the Brent contracts market traded on ICE, Coscia on-
    52
    ly accounted for 47,649 or .066% of those canceled orders.”
    But it is clear that ICE Summary Chart 6 did not display
    market-wide order data of all cancellations but only revealed
    a specific subset of cancellations: cancellations of large or-
    ders following the fill of a small order in the opposite direc-
    tion. The very first page of the exhibit reflects this subset of
    cancellations: “Instances where Mr. Coscia cancelled large
    52 Id. at 25.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                                  31
    53
    orders following an opposite trade.” In addition, Redman
    clearly confirmed this characterization at trial:
    So what we did to get to this chart was we
    looked at how frequently a large order was
    canceled following the trading of a small order
    in the other direction.
    … It looks at everybody else who’s—who had
    the same instance of large order—small order
    54
    trades, large orders canceled.
    Thus, Mr. Coscia’s submission that he actually represent-
    ed less than 1% of all market-wide cancellations is not at all
    supported by the evidence. The record is clear that ICE
    Summary Chart 6 referred to a subset of cancellations only:
    Mr. Coscia accounted for over 90% of cancellations of large
    orders that followed the fill of a small order in the opposite
    direction. The post-trial data correction simply reflects that
    Mr. Coscia represented 91%, as opposed to 96%, of large or-
    der cancellations following the trade of a small order in the
    other direction. We find it difficult to see how this de mini-
    mis error probably could have led to an acquittal. Mr. Coscia
    53 R.177-35 at 1. Mr. Coscia contends that “the presumption that the jury
    understood the 96% figure” to represent only this subset of cancellations,
    as opposed to all cancellations, “is belied both by the chart’s more sweep-
    ing title of ‘Order cancellation comparison.’” Appellant’s Reply Br. 12
    n.6. We are unpersuaded by Mr. Coscia’s concerns, as the first page of
    the exhibit contains the very heading Mr. Coscia claims is lacking;
    Mr. Coscia has chosen to excerpt the first page of the exhibit from his
    lead brief. See Appellant’s Br. 23–24.
    54 R.86 at 37–38 (Tr. 304–05).
    32                                     Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    offers no other justification why this minor error should cast
    doubt on all of the data evidence.
    Finally, Mr. Coscia attacks CME Summary Chart 5 by
    suggesting three ways the data could have been calculated
    differently. He contends: (1) that order modifications should
    have been included in the cancellation count; (2) that small
    and large firms should have been treated differently; (3) and
    that large orders placed only should have been compared to
    large orders filled. But where the data or the calculations
    may have fallen short are matters that should have been
    dealt with on cross-examination. Indeed, Mr. Coscia’s trial
    counsel did cross-examine CME witness Ryan Cobb on the
    55
    exclusion of modifications from the chart.
    Mr. Coscia also fails to carry his burden of demonstrating
    that he likely would have been acquitted if the jury had been
    presented this data or his updated charts. First, as we have
    discussed, Mr. Coscia’s proposed presentation of the evi-
    dence does not present the new evidence fairly or accurately.
    It is a safe assumption that Government counsel would have
    exposed these shortcomings. More fundamentally, there was
    a significant amount of other evidence against Mr. Coscia
    that established his intent to spoof. The jury considered
    Mr. Coscia’s own testimony, the testimony of programmer
    Jeremiah Park, the testimony of other traders, and the rebut-
    tal testimony of Hank Bessembinder.
    55 Id. at 150–52 (Tr. 417–19).
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                       33
    For these reasons, we conclude that the district court did
    not abuse its discretion in denying Mr. Coscia’s motion for a
    new trial based on the post-trial data.
    C.
    Subsequent Indictments of Other Traders
    Mr. Coscia also submits that subsequent indictments of
    other traders for spoofing materially undercuts the Govern-
    ment’s key theory at trial: that Mr. Coscia was an “outlier.”
    In his view, these subsequent indictments establish that the
    Government had asserted falsely that Mr. Coscia’s trading
    activities were unique and that this uniqueness demonstrat-
    ed his criminal intent. Mr. Coscia also submits a new trial is
    warranted in his case because the Government treated Park’s
    testimony differently in the prosecution of another trader, see
    United States v. Jitesh Thakkar, No. 18-cr-00036 (N.D. Ill.),
    where it argued that Park’s testimony did not support a
    finding of intent to spoof.
    As to whether the subsequent indictments contradict the
    Government’s characterization of Mr. Coscia as “unique” or
    as an “outlier,” the district court was entitled to conclude, in
    the context of a motion for a new trial, that the fact “[t]hat
    others may have employed illegal trading strategies does not
    constitute a defense to a criminal indictment based on the
    56
    employment of illegal trading strategies.” From our review
    of the record, the case against Mr. Coscia was not built ex-
    clusively around the Government’s characterization of
    Mr. Coscia’s trading strategy as “unique.” Significantly, it
    56 R.233 at 7.
    34                                          Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    included Mr. Coscia’s own admissions about his trading pat-
    terns, Park’s testimony, and the testimony of other traders.
    With respect to the Thakkar prosecution, Mr. Coscia con-
    tends that the Government took a position contrary to the
    one it took against him. Specifically, Thakkar alleged that the
    Government engaged in selective prosecution because it de-
    clined to prosecute Jeremiah Park, the computer program-
    mer who built Mr. Coscia’s trading program. In reply, the
    Government stated that “Park’s awareness of Coscia’s intent
    to spoof is not supported by Park’s own testimony in Coscia.
    ... Park testified that Coscia never suggested to Park that
    Coscia was doing something wrong or fraudulent when us-
    57
    ing Park’s trading programs.” Whether Park was subjec-
    tively aware of Mr. Coscia’s intent to spoof or whether Park
    had a subjective intent to spoof, however, is irrelevant to
    Mr. Coscia’s intent to spoof. We cannot accept Mr. Coscia’s
    attempt to conflate his own intent with that of Park.
    Mr. Coscia has failed to establish that the interests of jus-
    tice warrant a new trial, for either the post-trial data or the
    subsequent indictments. The district court therefore did not
    abuse its discretion in denying Mr. Coscia’s new trial mo-
    tion.
    57 Government’s Resp. to Def. Jitesh Thakkar’s Mot. to Dismiss Indict-
    ment with Prejudice at 9 n.4, United States v. Thakkar, No. 18-cr-00036
    (N.D. Ill.).
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                          35
    III
    The Section 2255 Motion
    After the district court denied the motion for a new trial,
    Mr. Coscia filed a motion under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
     to vacate
    his conviction. In this motion, he alleged that his trial coun-
    sel, Sullivan & Cromwell, had provided ineffective assis-
    tance of counsel in two ways. He first submitted that Sulli-
    van & Cromwell had undisclosed conflicts of interest that
    adversely affected his trial counsel’s performance. Secondly,
    he alleged that Sullivan & Cromwell had provided ineffec-
    tive assistance by failing to object to, investigate, or chal-
    lenge the Government’s statistical evidence. The district
    court denied his § 2255 motion.
    We will review each of those allegations in turn. We re-
    view de novo a district court’s denial of a defendant’s mo-
    tion to vacate or set aside his convictions pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    . Hall v. United States, 
    371 F.3d 969
    , 972 (7th Cir.
    2004). We review the district court’s factual findings for clear
    error. 
    Id.
    A.
    The Conflict-of-Interest Allegation
    1. Background
    Mr. Coscia submits that, at the time of his trial, Sullivan
    & Cromwell represented, either simultaneously or in the
    past, several government witnesses, including ICE, D.E.
    Shaw, and Citadel. He further alleges that Sullivan &
    Cromwell never disclosed such conflict to him and that its
    representation of an adverse witness constituted an actual
    conflict of interest. In his view, this conflict of interest incen-
    36                                     Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    tivized Sullivan & Cromwell to neglect critical discovery be-
    cause the information derived from such a discovery process
    necessarily would impact adversely these clients.
    Mr. Coscia supported these allegations by noting that,
    with respect to ICE, Sullivan & Cromwell’s website revealed
    that it had represented ICE in various transactions over a
    fourteen-year period. Notably, it represented ICE in a $5.2
    billion acquisition that had been finalized on the first day of
    Mr. Coscia’s trial. Sullivan & Cromwell never disclosed that
    representation. Furthermore, Sullivan & Cromwell’s lead
    counsel, Attorney Kenneth Raisler, personally had repre-
    sented ICE in prior matters. According to Mr. Coscia, Attor-
    ney Raisler therefore knew that Sullivan & Cromwell had a
    long-term and valuable attorney-client relationship with
    ICE. Mr. Coscia contended that, because of its concurrent
    representation of ICE, Sullivan & Cromwell chose trial strat-
    egies that would not create difficulties for its long-standing
    client by failing to ascertain the completeness or accuracy of
    the summary charts and by failing to cross-examine effec-
    tively Redman, the ICE representative.
    Mr. Coscia also alleged that Sullivan & Cromwell previ-
    ously had represented D.E. Shaw and Citadel, entities whose
    representatives testified for the Government at his trial. He
    supported this allegation by submitting attorney profile
    pages from the Sullivan & Cromwell website showing that
    various attorneys from the firm had represented D.E. Shaw
    58
    and Citadel in various transactions. This situation, in
    Mr. Coscia’s view, amounted to an actual conflict of interest
    58 See 2255 R.8-2; R.8-3.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                                  37
    because Sullivan & Cromwell attorneys faced the possibility
    of having to cross-examine their former clients. Mr. Coscia
    further speculates that Sullivan & Cromwell “represented
    other persons or entities who testified at trial, and therefore
    59
    had yet further conflicts of interest.” Mr. Coscia contended
    that Sullivan & Cromwell, wary of creating difficulty for
    these clients, had failed to obtain data from them or
    cross-examine their representatives effectively.
    The district court ruled that Mr. Coscia had demonstrat-
    ed successfully that the firm actively provided legal services
    to ICE at the time of the trial. It nevertheless concluded that
    Mr. Coscia failed to show that this simultaneous representa-
    tion had affected adversely Attorney Raisler’s performance
    during trial. Taking the same view as it had in disposing of
    the second motion for a new trial, the district court deter-
    mined that Sullivan & Cromwell’s strategy was to
    acknowledge Mr. Coscia’s trading conduct and to justify that
    trading conduct as legitimate. The court therefore concluded
    that Mr. Coscia failed to demonstrate that any alleged con-
    flict adversely affected Sullivan & Cromwell’s representation
    of him.
    59 Appellant’s 2255 Br. 19 n.3 (“In response to a question from one of
    Coscia’s post-trial attorneys asking whether [Sullivan & Cromwell] had
    represented any of 28 specific entities who were involved in Coscia’s trial
    and/or the transactions at issue in Coscia’s case, [Sullivan & Cromwell]
    provided the following vague but suggestive response: ‘We can confirm
    that Sullivan & Cromwell LLP represented certain entities (or their affili-
    ates) listed in your April 3, 2019 letter prior to or during Sullivan &
    Cromwell’s representation of Mr. Coscia.’” (emphasis omitted)).
    38                                      Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    2. Governing Principles
    The Sixth Amendment guarantees criminal defendants
    effective assistance of counsel. Included within this right is
    the right to representation “free from conflicts of interest.”
    Wood v. Georgia, 
    450 U.S. 261
    , 271 (1981).
    An allegation of the sort presented here is governed by
    the rule established by the Supreme Court in Cuyler v. Sulli-
    van, 
    446 U.S. 335
     (1980). Under this rule, the defendant must
    first establish the existence of a conflict of interest. Once the
    defendant has established such a conflict, he must further
    establish that the conflict “adversely affected his lawyer’s
    performance.” 
    Id. at 348
    . “[U]ntil a defendant shows that his
    counsel actively represented conflicting interests, he has not es-
    tablished the constitutional predicate for his claim of ineffec-
    tive assistance.” 
    Id. at 350
     (emphasis added). This showing,
    although not as difficult to meet as the Strickland v. Washing-
    ton, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984), prejudice standard, is nevertheless a
    significant burden. See Spreitzer v. Peters, 
    114 F.3d 1435
    , 1450
    (7th Cir. 1997); see also Hall, 
    371 F.3d at 973
     (observing that
    the Sullivan adverse-effect standard is significantly easier to
    meet than the Strickland prejudice standard).
    In sum, “[a]n ‘actual conflict,’ for Sixth Amendment pur-
    poses, is a conflict of interest that adversely affects counsel’s
    performance.” Mickens v. Taylor, 
    535 U.S. 162
    , 172 n.5 (2002).
    An “adverse effect” can be demonstrated “by showing that
    ‘but for the attorney’s actual conflict of interest, there is a
    reasonable likelihood that counsel’s performance somehow
    would have been different.’” Gonzales v. Mize, 
    565 F.3d 373
    ,
    381 (7th Cir. 2009) (quoting Stoia v. United States, 
    22 F.3d 766
    ,
    771 (7th Cir. 1994)).
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                        39
    3. Our Assessment
    We first consider Mr. Coscia’s conflict of interest claim as
    to ICE, and we agree with the district court that there was a
    conflict of interest with respect to ICE. We conclude, howev-
    er, that Attorney Raisler’s conflict of interest did not ad-
    versely affect his performance.
    With respect to the conflict of interest, Mr. Coscia pre-
    sented evidence that his trial attorney, Kenneth Raisler, was
    involved in providing legal and lobbying services to ICE in
    the years prior to Mr. Coscia’s criminal proceeding. In addi-
    tion, Sullivan & Cromwell was directly providing legal ser-
    vices to ICE while Attorney Raisler was representing
    60
    Mr. Coscia. We have noted the importance of “the pre-
    sumption that the lawyer will subordinate his pecuniary in-
    terests and honor his primary professional responsibility to
    his clients in the matter at hand.” United States v. Jeffers, 
    520 F.2d 1256
    , 1265 (7th Cir. 1975). Attorney Raisler’s prior direct
    involvement and his firm’s simultaneous involvement in the
    representation of ICE in other matters at the time of
    Mr. Coscia’s trial, and the failure to disclose such conflict, is
    cause for concern that loyalties may have been divided. See
    Rosenwald v. United States, 
    898 F.2d 585
    , 587 (7th Cir. 1990)
    (“The pragmatic pressure on counsel in cases such as these is
    purely financial—the lawyer does not want to lose a client
    whether that client is seeking advice on civil or on criminal
    matters. The ethical dilemma is also the same—the attorney
    must still guard secrets and confidences and must seek to
    promote the client’s interests ….”). Here, Redmond’s testi-
    60 See 2255 R.8-1.
    40                                            Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    mony about Mr. Coscia’s trading conduct on ICE’s exchange,
    the role that Attorney Raisler had played in advising ICE on
    regulatory and lobbying matters, and the financial stake Sul-
    livan & Cromwell had in the simultaneous matters concern-
    ing ICE, support the district court’s determination.
    As we noted earlier, the presence of a conflict of interest,
    standing alone, does not carry the day for Mr. Coscia. Hav-
    ing established that Sullivan & Cromwell had a conflict with
    respect to ICE, Mr. Coscia still must demonstrate that there
    is a reasonable possibility that, absent this conflict of interest,
    his counsel’s representation was adversely affected. In an
    effort to carry this burden, Mr. Coscia submits that, because
    his counsel’s firm had a conflict of interest, the attorney did
    not obtain or verify the data underlying the ICE summary
    charts. If this underlying statistical evidence had been avail-
    able, Mr. Coscia continues, it would have “expose[d] the ob-
    jective inaccuracies in the prosecution’s charts” and demon-
    61
    strated that his trading strategy was not unique. Mr. Coscia
    also maintains that an unconflicted lawyer would have,
    through more effective cross-examination, rebutted the Gov-
    ernment’s assertion that Mr. Coscia was an outlier in his
    62
    trading activity.
    61 Appellant’s 2255 Br. 29.
    62 For example, Mr. Coscia points to his trial counsel’s failure to
    cross-examine ICE representative Redman about a $122,180 loss he in-
    curred. At trial, Redman testified that this loss resulted from a large or-
    der being filled; Mr. Coscia now alleges that this loss actually resulted
    from multiple small orders. Redman’s testimony, however, supported
    Mr. Coscia’s defense theory: he was indifferent to whether large or small
    orders were filled, and that he “wanted to trade” each large order he
    (continued … )
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                                      41
    Mr. Coscia’s argument encounters some very strong
    headwinds. At the outset, the newly discovered post-trial
    data does not uncover the large inaccuracies he claims. 63 It
    demonstrates, at most, a mild variation in the cancellation of
    large trades following small orders in the opposite direction.
    Moreover, Mr. Coscia’s defense at trial was to acknowledge
    that his trading activity was unique, but wholly above
    64
    board. His approach, quite understandably, was to present
    ( … continued)
    placed on the market. R.89 at 183 (Tr. 940). In closing, Mr. Coscia’s de-
    fense counsel told the jury: “[J]ust because the small side actually trades
    more often than the large side that you really didn’t have anything at
    stake …. But the truth is, and we’re going to see this, the large side was
    filled in full or in part more than 8,000 times.” R.92 at 94 (Tr. 1507). De-
    fense counsel went on: “Sometimes the large side was profitable. Some-
    times it was not. Sometimes you make money in trading. Sometimes you
    don’t.” Id. at 103 (Tr. 1516).
    63 Mr. Coscia again insists that ICE Summary Chart 6 falsely “claimed
    that Coscia was responsible for 96% of all order cancellations on the
    Brent Crude futures market,” and that it was not until post-trial that ICE
    disclosed that ICE Summary Chart 6 represented a subset of cancella-
    tions flagged by an ICE system alert tool. Appellant’s 2255 Br. 26–27.
    Mr. Coscia urges that not only was the methodology of the alert tool
    “never fully explained either during trial or after,” but that trial counsel
    failed to contest the “devastating statistic … that Coscia accounted for
    96% of all cancellations on the Brent Crude market.” Id. at 27. As we dis-
    cussed with respect to Mr. Coscia’s new trial motion, the record indicates
    that ICE Summary Chart 6 was clearly presented to the jury for what it
    was: large orders cancelled after small orders filled in the opposite direc-
    tion. The chart’s title and Redman’s testimony clearly describe that ICE
    Summary Chart 6 reflected a subset of, not all, cancellations.
    64 See, e.g., R.82 at 170 (Tr. 170) (“Every order to buy or sell a futures con-
    tract that he placed into the market was a real, legitimate order that was
    (continued … )
    42                                          Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    his trading activity as legitimate and to argue that there was
    no evidence that his trading behavior manifested an intent to
    spoof. He submitted that he was indifferent as to whether
    his large or small orders were filled and that every order he
    placed, regardless of size, was capable of being filled and
    therefore legitimate.
    The focus of Mr. Coscia’s defense was that he was not at-
    tempting to rig the market through spoofing. The post-trial
    statistical evidence recovered is only mildly relevant and
    probative to this defense. By diluting, somewhat, the Gov-
    ernment’s assertion that he was an outlier in his trading
    methodology, the new evidence provides some circumstan-
    tial evidence relevant to whether he was attempting to rig
    the market. In light of the other evidence, however, this mild
    variation of ICE Summary Chart 6 could not have made a
    significant difference in the jury’s determination. Consider-
    ing the design of the program and the testimony of Park,
    Mr. Coscia’s programmer, that Mr. Coscia wanted the pro-
    gram to act “[l]ike a decoy” to “pump [the] market,” it was
    entirely reasonable for trial counsel to pursue the chosen
    strategy. 65 In the end, Mr. Coscia set up a system designed to
    spoof the market.
    ( … continued)
    available for others in the market to trade. … Sometimes he lost money.
    Sometimes he made money.”); R.92 at 52 (Tr. 1465) (“We don’t dispute,
    in short, that he had a different strategy, but there’s nothing wrong or
    unlawful about having a different strategy. There’s nothing wrong or
    unlawful about having an unusual strategy.”).
    65 R.86 at 231, 235 (Tr. 498, 502).
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                       43
    The situation is somewhat different with respect to D.E.
    Shaw or Citadel. Here, Mr. Coscia has not demonstrated that
    a conflict of interest existed. Relying on Hall and Enoch v.
    Gramley, 
    70 F.3d 1490
     (7th Cir. 1995), Mr. Coscia contends
    that “even the possibility of cross-examining a former client
    constitutes an actual conflict.” 66 This position misses the
    mark: In Enoch, 70 F.3d at 1498, we declined to adopt a rule
    “that any lawyer has a conflict of interest when he
    cross-examines a former client.” Although the possibility of
    having to cross-examine a former client may lead to an actual
    conflict of interest, we have held that the defendant must
    show one of two things: “(1) that the attorney’s representa-
    tion of the first client was ‘substantially and particularly re-
    lated to his later representation of defendant’ or (2) that the
    attorney actually ‘learned particular confidential information
    during the prior representation of the witness that was rele-
    vant to defendant’s later case.’” Hall, 
    371 F.3d at 973
     (quoting
    Enoch, 70 F.3d at 1496–97).
    Mr. Coscia has not established that Sullivan & Crom-
    well’s representation of D.E. Shaw in its unrelated structured
    private transactions or of Citadel in its unrelated investment
    transactions was substantially and particularly related to the
    representation of Mr. Coscia. The cases to which Mr. Coscia
    invites our attention involve the same matter or concern
    co-defendants, and therefore do not govern the situation be-
    fore us. For instance, in Hall, we held that there was an actu-
    al conflict of interest when an attorney’s representation of a
    witness “enabled him to learn confidential information per-
    66 Appellant’s 2255 Br. 18.
    44                                             Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    taining directly to Hall’s case.” Id. at 973. In Ross v. Heyne,
    
    638 F.2d 979
    , 982 (7th Cir. 1980), “one attorney represented
    the defendant while his law partner represented
    co-defendants who testified for the prosecution.” This type
    of multiple representation presented an actual conflict be-
    cause the “two co-defendants testified against Ross in ex-
    change for favorable treatment by the state,” and the de-
    fendant’s attorney “was unable to cross-examine them effec-
    tively.” 
    Id. at 983
    . 67 And in United States v. Moscony, 
    927 F.2d 742
    , 747–51 (3d Cir. 1991), the Third Circuit held that an ac-
    tual conflict of interest existed when defense counsel previ-
    ously had represented employees of the defendant who
    would be testifying for the government. Defense counsel
    could not effectively impeach the witnesses “without reveal-
    ing information ‘relating to’ his representation of them.” 
    Id. at 750
    .
    Mr. Coscia has not established that Sullivan & Cromwell
    learned of relevant and confidential information from its
    representations of D.E. Shaw and Citadel in unrelated trans-
    actions. He has presented no facts to suggest that
    Mr. Coscia’s trial lawyers were torn between the duty of
    67 See also McElrath v. Simpson, 
    595 F.3d 624
     (6th Cir. 2010) (finding an
    actual conflict of interest in joint representation of multiple defendants in
    same case); Boykin v. Webb, 
    541 F.3d 638
     (6th Cir. 2008) (same); McFarland
    v. Yukins, 
    356 F.3d 688
     (6th Cir. 2004) (same); United States v. Basham, 
    918 F. Supp. 2d 787
     (C.D. Ill. 2013) (finding an actual conflict of interest when
    prior client and defendant were charged with the same offense, and prior
    client admitted defendant’s involvement); United States v. Ring, 
    878 F. Supp. 134
     (C.D. Ill. 1995) (finding an actual conflict of interest when
    counsel previously represented in related matter client who would be
    testifying as material government witness).
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                        45
    confidentiality to their firm’s former client and their duty of
    loyalty to Mr. Coscia.
    Inviting our attention to United States v. Alex, 
    788 F. Supp. 359
     (N.D. Ill. 1992), Mr. Coscia further contends that “a law-
    yer cannot represent a defendant if he previously represent-
    ed a victim of the crime.” 68 Alex is not binding precedent,
    but, in any event, Mr. Coscia overstates the district court’s
    conclusion. In Alex, an attorney undertook representation of
    a criminal defendant while simultaneously representing sev-
    eral of the alleged victims of the defendant’s extortionate
    conduct in a grand jury investigation. 
    Id. at 362
    . The court
    concluded that, because of his representation of the victims,
    counsel was “aware of certain matters which could be used
    to attack the credibility of the witnesses at trial.” 
    Id. at 364
    .
    The court’s concern was grounded in the fact that the attor-
    ney sought “to represent one of the alleged perpetrators of
    the criminal activity when he and his firm previously repre-
    sented individuals who were allegedly victims of the very
    same criminal activity.” 
    Id.
    Even if we were to assume that D.E. Shaw and Citadel
    can be characterized as victims of Mr. Coscia’s spoofing
    conduct, Mr. Coscia does not allege, and there is nothing in
    the record to suggest, that Sullivan & Cromwell represented
    D.E. Shaw or Citadel as victims in the context of Mr. Coscia’s
    criminal activity. See Enoch, 70 F.3d at 1497 (concluding no
    actual conflict when attorney represented adverse witness
    for “entirely separate” matters “four years apart, and none
    of the relevant people involved had cross-cutting relation-
    68 Appellant’s 2255 Br. 21–22.
    46                                             Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    ships”). Here, Mr. Coscia has offered only speculation that
    Sullivan & Cromwell’s prior representation of D.E. Shaw
    and Citadel involved a possible conflict of interest. “[T]he
    possibility of conflict,” however, “is insufficient to impugn a
    criminal conviction.” Sullivan, 
    446 U.S. at 350
    . 69
    B.
    Ineffective Assistance of Counsel
    1. Background
    As a second ground for relief under § 2255, Mr. Coscia
    also brings an ineffective assistance of counsel claim on the
    ground that, even in the absence of a conflict of interest, his
    trial counsel provided ineffective assistance. His petition al-
    leged that trial counsel’s failure to object to, investigate, and
    69 Mr. Coscia insists that his trial counsel “took a disturbingly light
    touch” by failing to obtain the algorithm program logic of the trading
    firms. Appellant’s 2255 Br. 29. He submits that “[t]he program logic from
    D.E. Shaw would likely have shown that it, too, was designed to cancel
    orders … which would have been important to show Coscia was not an
    ‘outlier’ or ‘unique’ in his trading.” Id. at 30. But again, Mr. Coscia’s de-
    fense theory was to not dispute his algorithm or that he was an outlier.
    See R.82 at 172 (Tr. 172) (“Let me get one thing right out of the way. We
    don’t disagree that Michael Coscia came up with the idea for a comput-
    er-driven trading program. He’s admitted that. We don’t dispute that it
    worked generally as the prosecution has described.”); R.92 at 53 (Tr.
    1465) (“We don’t dispute how Michael’s strategy worked. We don’t dis-
    pute that it worked differently from other high-frequency traders. We
    don’t dispute that Michael placed more large orders than other
    high-frequency traders, and we don’t dispute that Michael traded …
    more large orders than other high-frequency traders.”); Id. at 129 (Tr.
    1542) (“Now, as Michael told you and Professor Bessembinder also con-
    firmed, there’s really no dispute about how the algorithm worked.”).
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                        47
    challenge certain evidence rendered his trial counsel’s per-
    formance constitutionally deficient. The Government coun-
    tered that Mr. Coscia failed to satisfy either the defi-
    cient-performance or prejudice prong of Strickland v. Wash-
    ington, 
    466 U.S. at 668
    . It emphasized that trial counsel’s de-
    cisions were strategic: He characterized Mr. Coscia’s conduct
    as a legitimate trading strategy. And in any event, the jury
    saw and heard a significant amount of evidence, including
    Mr. Coscia’s own testimony, along with that of his pro-
    grammer, Park.
    The district court agreed with the Government that
    Mr. Coscia could not establish either Strickland prong. In its
    view, Mr. Coscia’s case presented “the common situation”
    where an attorney concludes that “the client stands a better
    chance of success by admitting the underlying actions al-
    leged to have been taken by the client which appear to be
    easily provable, and instead argue to the jury that the actions
    70
    do not amount to a crime.” The court concluded that trial
    counsel’s strategic decision was objectively reasonable, and
    there was no reasonable probability that a different strategy
    would have led to a different outcome. Accordingly, the dis-
    trict court denied Mr. Coscia’s § 2255 motion.
    2. Governing Principles
    It is well established that the right to counsel is the right
    to effective assistance of counsel. Id. at 686. Under the
    two-prong test set forth in Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    687–88, inef-
    fective assistance of counsel is established by showing that
    70 2255 R.15 at 6–7.
    48                                     Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    trial counsel’s performance fell below an objective standard
    of reasonableness and that the deficient performance was
    prejudicial. To satisfy the first prong, the petitioner must
    first “show that counsel provided constitutionally deficient
    performance, meaning counsel made errors so serious he
    was not functioning as the counsel guaranteed the defendant
    by the Sixth Amendment.” Winfield v. Dorothy, 
    956 F.3d 442
    ,
    451 (7th Cir. 2020) (internal quotations omitted). In evaluat-
    ing such claims, we must “indulge a strong presumption
    that counsel’s conduct falls within the wide range of reason-
    able professional assistance.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 689
    . To
    satisfy the second prong, the petitioner also must “show that
    this deficient performance prejudiced his defense—meaning
    there is a ‘reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s un-
    professional errors, the result of the proceeding would have
    been different.’” Winfield, 956 F.3d at 451 (quoting Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 694
    ).
    3. Mr. Coscia’s Contentions
    Mr. Coscia submits that his trial counsel failed to investi-
    gate and offer probative evidence to undermine the Gov-
    ernment’s case by (1) failing to investigate or challenge inac-
    curate summary charts; (2) failing to obtain and introduce
    evidence supporting Mr. Coscia’s good faith; and (3) failing
    to impeach Government witnesses.
    The Government submits that Mr. Coscia’s “claims of de-
    ficient performance relate to strategic choices made by de-
    71
    fendant’s trial counsel.” The data and summary charts in-
    71 Appellee’s 2255 Br. 49.
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                                  49
    dicated clearly that Mr. Coscia’s trading practices were dif-
    ferent and unusual from that of other high-frequency trad-
    ing firms.
    We already have rejected Mr. Coscia’s argument that the
    data was as inaccurate as he claims. More importantly, the
    strategic choice to accept the trading data as presented but
    argue that nothing was wrong with his trading practices was
    a reasonable decision in light of other evidence against
    Mr. Coscia. Park’s testimony that Mr. Coscia directed him to
    design a program to avoid large orders being filled made it
    difficult for Mr. Coscia to deny his trading choices.
    Mr. Coscia’s prior deposition testimony for the Commodity
    Futures Trading Commission confirms that the choice to
    admit Mr. Coscia’s conduct but to argue that it was legal was
    entirely reasonable.
    Mr. Coscia insists that his trial counsel failed to pursue a
    good-faith defense. But, as the Government submits and the
    district court recognized, Mr. Coscia’s defense strategy at
    72
    trial was a good-faith defense. From the outset, Mr. Coscia’s
    defense acknowledged the differences between his trading
    activities and that of other traders. Trial counsel submitted
    72 2255 R.15 at 5 (“At trial, Petitioner’s defense was to acknowledge his
    trading activity, which was testified to by employees of ICE and the oth-
    er entities he claims created the conflict. Petitioner attempted to justify
    his trading activities as being wholly legal and proper. … His defense
    was that each and every order he placed, both large and small, was a
    legitimate order that was capable of being filled prior to cancelation.”
    (citations omitted)).
    50                                           Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    that Mr. Coscia’s choice of conduct was “just good trad-
    73
    ing.”
    Mr. Coscia next asserts that trial counsel failed to im-
    peach various government witnesses. For example, he points
    to counsel’s failure to use prior inconsistent statements to
    impeach Dermenchyan, an employee at Teza Technologies.
    In an earlier interview with the Financial Services Authority,
    Dermenchyan stated that he did not know whether the same
    participant who placed the large orders was the same partic-
    74
    ipant placing small orders on the other side. At trial, Der-
    menchyan stated:
    [L]arge size[] [orders] were placed in the mar-
    ket in order to induce participants to trade on
    the opposite side, and … it was clear it was an
    individual participant doing this. And if you
    follow the logic, it was clear that it was a par-
    ticipant playing with supply and demand in
    order to push prices in one direction and then
    75
    push them back in the other direction.
    These statements, however, are not inconsistent with one
    another. Dermenchyan’s testimony at trial concerned large
    orders only, not whether the same participant was placing
    large orders and small orders in the opposite direction.
    Mr. Coscia further complains that his trial counsel did not
    73 R.82 at 186 (Tr. 186).
    74 See 2255 R.5-22 at 15.
    75 R.88 at 80 (Tr. 685).
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                       51
    adequately dispute the trading practice; yet his defense be-
    fore the jury was to acknowledge and admit to his trading
    practices.
    Mr. Coscia also submits that his trial counsel was defi-
    cient in failing to cross-examine Alex Gerko of GSA Capital
    about GSA Capital’s settlement with CME regarding
    matched orders. Gerko testified to his observation of a par-
    ticular pattern of activity, where he “would see very, very
    large orders appearing on the market indicating some kind
    of very sharp imbalance between buyers and sellers, and
    then these orders would disappear from the bid and appear
    76
    on the offer and … repeat tens of times in a row.”
    Cross-examining Gerko on GSA Capital’s settlement with
    CME, however, would have done little for Mr. Coscia’s de-
    fense because his defense strategy was to admit to his trad-
    ing practices. The failure to cross-examine here is insufficient
    to overcome the “strong presumption” that counsel’s deci-
    sions fell “within the wide range of reasonable professional
    assistance.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 689
    .
    We agree with the district court’s assessment that
    Mr. Coscia’s trial counsel was presented with “the common
    situation” where “the client stands a better chance of success
    by admitting the underlying actions alleged to have been
    taken by the client which appear to be easily provable, and
    instead argue to the jury that the actions do not amount to a
    crime.” 77 That the jury did not accept his defense does not
    76 Id. at 90 (Tr. 695).
    77 2255 R.15 at 6–7.
    52                                      Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    render it constitutionally deficient. We cannot conclude that
    his trial counsel’s performance was so deficient as to fall be-
    low an objective standard of reasonableness.
    Even if we were to assume that trial counsel’s perfor-
    mance was deficient, Mr. Coscia has not demonstrated prej-
    udice. Given the strong evidence of Mr. Coscia’s intent, it is
    highly improbable that the introduction of a weak statistical
    characterization of Mr. Coscia’s trading patterns would have
    led to a different outcome. Not only did Park testify as to his
    instructions, but Mr. Coscia, himself, testified to how he de-
    signed his trading programs to work. His ineffective assis-
    tance of counsel claim therefore must fail.
    C.
    Evidentiary Hearing
    Finally, we turn to the district court’s denial of
    Mr. Coscia’s request for an evidentiary hearing. We review
    this denial for abuse of discretion. See Kafo v. United States,
    
    467 F.3d 1063
    , 1067 (7th Cir. 2006). When a petitioner “alleg-
    es facts that, if proven, would entitle him to relief,” the dis-
    trict court must grant an evidentiary hearing. Bruce v. United
    States, 
    256 F.3d 592
    , 597 (7th Cir. 2001) (quoting Stoia, 
    22 F.3d at 768
    ). The court, however, is not required to grant an evi-
    dentiary hearing when “the motion and the files and records
    of the case conclusively show that the prisoner is entitled to
    no relief.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (b). “In addition, a hearing is not
    necessary if the petitioner makes conclusory or speculative
    allegations rather than specific factual allegations.” Daniels v.
    United States, 
    54 F.3d 290
    , 293 (7th Cir. 1995); see also Aleman
    v. United States, 
    878 F.2d 1009
     (7th Cir. 1989) (rejecting hear-
    Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032                                      53
    ing request when petitioner “offer[ed] conjecture, not facts”
    that certain witnesses were informants).
    Mr. Coscia submitted that he became aware only after
    trial that trial counsel simultaneously or previously repre-
    sented ICE, D.E. Shaw, and Citadel. He sought an eviden-
    tiary hearing and requested discovery in the form of a doc-
    ument subpoena to Sullivan & Cromwell to determine,
    among other things, whether Sullivan & Cromwell repre-
    sented ICE, D.E. Shaw, Citadel, or any other government
    witnesses or trading firms identified in the indictment; the
    subject matter and time period of those representations;
    which attorneys were involved or knew about those repre-
    sentations; the conflict check procedures at Sullivan &
    Cromwell; and the communications between, and the fees
    obtained from, any parties Sullivan & Cromwell represent-
    ed. Mr. Coscia also requested to depose his trial counsel.
    As we already have concluded that trial counsel present-
    ed an actual conflict with ICE, we evaluate whether the dis-
    trict court erred in denying his request for an evidentiary
    hearing concerning his conflict allegations related to D.E.
    Shaw and Citadel. He contends that Sullivan & Cromwell’s
    prior representation of these entities explains what he char-
    acterizes as the “disturbingly light touch” given by trial
    counsel. 78 Mr. Coscia submits that, without such a conflict of
    interest, his trial counsel would have obtained data or elicit-
    ed testimony from these entities to show that Mr. Coscia’s
    trading patterns were not abnormal or an outlier.
    78 Appellant’s 2255 Br. 29.
    54                                     Nos. 19-2010 & 20-1032
    This defense, however, was the opposite of Mr. Coscia’s
    actual defense strategy to admit Mr. Coscia’s trading prac-
    tices but submit that they were above board. And as we have
    discussed, in light of Park’s testimony and Mr. Coscia’s own
    testimony, Mr. Coscia’s good-faith defense was a more than
    reasonable strategy.
    Mr. Coscia has submitted only that trial counsel had pre-
    viously represented adverse witnesses in unrelated transac-
    tional matters and that they therefore must have obtained
    confidential information. He has not provided any specific
    allegations as to what relevant information might have been
    obtained from those transactions or how such information
    would have affected this case. We therefore conclude that the
    district court did not abuse its discretion in denying
    Mr. Coscia’s request for an evidentiary hearing.
    Conclusion
    The district court did not abuse its discretion in denying
    Mr. Coscia’s new trial motion on the basis of new evidence.
    We also affirm the district court’s denial of Mr. Coscia’s
    § 2255 motion. Even though we agree with the district court
    that Mr. Coscia’s trial counsel had a conflict, the district
    court properly concluded that counsel’s performance was
    not adversely affected. Finally, Mr. Coscia cannot establish
    either prong of his ineffective assistance claim. For these rea-
    sons, we affirm the judgments of the district court.
    AFFIRMED