Federal Firearms Licensees of Illinois v. Jay R. Pritzker ( 2023 )


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  •                                In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    ____________________
    No. 23-1353
    ROBERT BEVIS, et al.,
    Plaintiffs-Appellants,
    v.
    CITY OF NAPERVILLE, ILLINOIS and JASON ARRES,
    Defendants-Appellees,
    and
    THE STATE OF ILLINOIS,
    Intervening Appellee.
    ____________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court for the
    Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    No. 1:22-cv-04775 — Virginia M. Kendall, Judge.
    ___________________
    No. 23-1793
    JAVIER HERRERA,
    Plaintiff-Appellant,
    v.
    KWAME RAOUL, et al.,
    Defendants-Appellees.
    2                                                        Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    ____________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court for the
    Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    No. 1:23-cv-00532 — Lindsay C. Jenkins, Judge.
    ___________________
    No. 23-1825 1
    CALEB BARNETT, et al.,
    Plaintiffs-Appellees,
    v.
    KWAME RAOUL and BRENDAN F. KELLY,
    Defendants-Appellants.
    ____________________
    Appeals from the United States District Court for the
    Southern District of Illinois.
    No. 3:23-cv-00209-SPM — Stephen P. McGlynn, Judge.
    ____________________
    ARGUED JUNE 29, 2023 — DECIDED NOVEMBER 3, 2023
    ____________________
    Before EASTERBROOK, WOOD, and BRENNAN, Circuit Judges.
    WOOD, Circuit Judge. The Second Amendment to the Con-
    stitution recognizes an individual right to “keep and bear
    Arms.” Of that there can be no doubt, in the wake of the
    1 Consolidated with No. 23-1826, Harrel v. Raoul (S.D. Ill. No. 3:23-cv-
    00141-SPM); No. 23-1827, Langley v. Kelly (S.D. Ill. No. 3:23-cv-00192-SPM);
    and No. 23-1828, Federal Firearms Licensees of Illinois, et al. v. Pritzker (S.D.
    Ill. No. 3:23-cv-00215-SPM).
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                           3
    Supreme Court’s decisions in District of Columbia v. Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
     (2008); McDonald v. City of Chicago, 
    561 U.S. 742
    (2010); Caetano v. Massachusetts, 
    577 U.S. 411
     (2016) (per cu-
    riam); and New York State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n v. Bruen, 
    142 S. Ct. 2111 (2022)
    . But as we know from long experience with
    other fundamental rights, such as the right to free speech, the
    right peaceably to assemble, the right to vote, and the right to
    free exercise of religion, even the most important personal
    freedoms have their limits. Government may punish a delib-
    erately false fire alarm; it may condition free assembly on the
    issuance of a permit; it may require voters to present a valid
    identification card; and it may punish child abuse even if it is
    done in the name of religion. The right enshrined in the Sec-
    ond Amendment is no different.
    The present cases, which we have consolidated for dispo-
    sition, relate to the types of “Arms” that are covered by the
    Second Amendment. 2 This presents a line-drawing problem.
    Everyone can agree that a personal handgun, used for self-
    defense, is one of those Arms that law-abiding citizens must
    be free to “keep and bear.” Everyone can also agree, we hope,
    that a nuclear weapon such as the now-retired M388 Davy
    Crockett system, with its 51-pound W54 warhead, can be re-
    served for the military, even though it is light enough for one
    person to carry.3 Many weapons, however, lie between these
    2 For ease of exposition, we will use the term Arms to refer to those
    weapons that fall within the scope of the Second Amendment.
    3 See Matthew Seelinger, The M28/M29 Davy Crockett Nuclear Weapon
    System, THE ARMY HISTORICAL FOUNDATION, https://armyhistory.org/the-
    m28m29-davy-crockett-nuclear-weapon-system/; see also Jeff Schogol,
    The Story of the ‘Davy Crockett,’ a Nuclear Recoilless Rifle Once Fielded by the
    4                                               Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    extremes. The State of Illinois, in the legislation that lies at the
    heart of these cases, has decided to regulate assault weapons
    and high-capacity magazines—a decision that is valid only if
    the regulated weapons lie on the military side of that line and
    thus are not within the class of Arms protected by the Second
    Amendment. Several municipalities have done the same. The
    plaintiffs in these cases challenge that conclusion. Using the
    tools of history and tradition to which the Supreme Court di-
    rected us in Heller and Bruen, we conclude that the state and
    the affected subdivisions have a strong likelihood of success
    in the pending litigation. We therefore affirm the decisions of
    the district courts in appeals No. 23-1353 and 23-1793 refusing
    to enjoin these laws, and we vacate the injunction issued by
    the district court in appeals No. 23-1825, 23-1826, 23-1827, and
    23-1828.
    I.     Background
    A. The Act
    At the center of these appeals lies a new statute in Illinois
    that took effect on January 10, 2023—a measure called the Pro-
    tect Illinois Communities Act, Pub. Act 102-1116 (2023) (“the
    Act”). Some of the consolidated cases also implicate three mu-
    nicipal laws that cover much of the same ground, though the
    details vary: Cook County Ordinances No. 54-210 to 54-215;
    City of Chicago Municipal Ordinances 8-20-010 to 8-20-100;
    and City of Naperville Ordinances No. 3-19-1 to 3-19-3. We
    make note of the municipal laws only when their specific pro-
    visions affect our analysis. For the interested reader, the chart
    US Army, TASK & PURPOSE (Sept. 19, 2022), https://taskandpur-
    pose.com/history/army-davy-crockett-tactical-nuclear-weapon/.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                             5
    in the Appendix to this opinion summarizes the relevant dif-
    ferences among these enactments.
    The Act is a sprawling piece of legislation made up of 99
    sections that cover a vast array of regulatory and record-keep-
    ing matters, along with the provisions of interest here. The
    Act’s wide scope led to a challenge in Illinois’s courts for fail-
    ing to comply with state-law requirements such as the single-
    subject rule, the three-readings requirement, and the ban on
    special legislation. See Caulkins v. Pritzker, 
    2023 IL 129453
    (Aug. 11, 2023). The state supreme court upheld the Act
    against those contentions, and it also ruled that the Act did
    not violate the state constitution’s equal protection clause. It
    did not reach any argument about the Second Amendment,
    because it found that the plaintiffs had waived any reliance
    on that theory. The plaintiffs in these cases have not argued
    that the Act is invalid under state law.
    The critical part of the Act for our purposes is its treatment
    of so-called assault weapons and large-capacity magazines.
    Those sections institute something close to a ban on “assault
    weapons,” through the Act’s general prohibitions of the sale,
    possession, and use of a defined set of weapons. The Act also
    bans large-capacity magazines. The plaintiffs have not speci-
    fied exactly which provisions of the Act they believe are un-
    constitutional under the Second Amendment, but we assume
    that their principal targets are 720 ILCS 5/24-1.9 and 5/24-1.10.
    Section 5/24-1.9 addresses the “[m]anufacture, possession, de-
    livery, sale, and purchase of assault weapons, .50 caliber rifles,
    and .50 caliber cartridges,” and section 5/24-1.10 deals with
    “[m]anufacture, delivery, sale, and possession of large capac-
    ity ammunition feeding devices.”
    6                                                  Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    The Act defines “assault weapon” using language that is
    largely borrowed from the expired Federal Assault Weapons
    Ban, which was a subsection of the Violent Crime Control and
    Law Enforcement Act of 1994, 
    Pub. L. No. 103-322, 108
     Stat.
    1796. 4 The Illinois Act bans certain semiautomatic rifles and
    pistols. A semiautomatic rifle falls under the Act’s proscrip-
    tions if it has the capacity to accept a detachable magazine and
    one or more of the following features: a pistol grip or
    thumbhole stock; any feature capable of functioning as a pro-
    truding grip for the non-trigger hand; a folding, telescoping,
    thumbhole, or detachable stock or a stock that otherwise en-
    hances the concealability of the weapon; a flash suppressor; a
    grenade launcher; or a barrel shroud. 720 ILCS 5/24-
    1.9(a)(1)(A). The definition also includes a semiautomatic rifle
    with a fixed magazine capacity of greater than 10 rounds, ex-
    cept those that accept only .22 caliber rimfire ammunition. 
    Id.
    5/24-1.9(a)(1)(B). Finally, there is a lengthy list of particular
    models that fall within the scope of the statute. See 5/24-
    1.9(a)(1)(J). Subpart (i) of that section covers all AK weapons,
    and subpart (ii) covers all AR types. In the remainder of this
    opinion, we will refer often to the AR-15 as a paradigmatic
    example of the kind of weapon the statute covers. We use it
    only illustratively, however; our analysis covers everything
    mentioned in the Act.
    The Act makes it unlawful for any person within Illinois
    knowingly to “manufacture, deliver, sell, import, or pur-
    chase … an assault weapon, assault weapon attachment, .50
    caliber rifle, or .50 caliber cartridge.” 
    Id.
     5/24-1.9(b). (Unless
    the context requires otherwise, from this point we use the
    4 The more formal name of the relevant part of the law was the Public
    Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                            7
    term “assault weapon” to cover all four covered items, in the
    interest of readability.) With some exceptions, the Act also
    makes it unlawful as of January 1, 2024, for any person within
    the state knowingly to “possess an assault weapon.” 
    Id.
    5/24-1.9(c).
    There are two significant exceptions to these prohibitions.
    Using the terminology the Supreme Court of Illinois adopted
    in Caulkins, the first is for “trained professionals” and the sec-
    ond is for “grandfathered individuals.” 
    2023 IL 129453
     at ¶ 1.
    The list of trained professionals, set forth in 5/24-1.9(e), in-
    cludes peace officers; qualified active and retired law-enforce-
    ment officers; prison wardens and “keepers”; members of the
    Armed Services, Reserves, or Illinois National Guard; nuclear
    facility guards; and licensed private security personnel. 
    Id.
    5/24-1.9(e)(1)–(7). The “grandfather” provision can be found
    at 5/24-1.9(d). It states that the Act’s prohibitions do “not ap-
    ply to a person’s possession of an assault weapon … if the
    person lawfully possessed” that weapon as of the effective
    date of the law and then the person “provide[s] in an endorse-
    ment affidavit, prior to January 1, 2024, under oath or affirma-
    tion” certain specified information to the Illinois State Police.
    
    Id.
     5/24-1.9(d)(1)–(3). A completed endorsement affidavit
    “creates a rebuttable presumption that the person is entitled
    to possess and transport the assault weapon.” 
    Id.
     5/24-1.9(d),
    at ¶ 2. The Act restricts the places where authorized persons
    may possess their weapons to the following: (1) private prop-
    erty owned or controlled by the person; (2) other private
    property, with the express permission of the owner or con-
    troller; (3) premises of a licensed firearms dealer or gunsmith
    for lawful repairs; (4) licensed firing ranges or sport shooting
    competition venues; and (5) in transit to or from any of those
    locations, if the weapon is unloaded and in a container. 
    Id.
    8                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    5/24-1.9(d), at ¶ 3(1)–(5). The parties have not focused on
    these locational restrictions, and so neither will we.
    Section 5/24-1.10 sets out the rules for large-capacity am-
    munition feeding devices. They are defined as a magazine (or
    similar mechanism) that can accept “more than 10 rounds of
    ammunition for long guns and more than 15 rounds of am-
    munition for handguns.” 
    Id.
     5/24-1.10(a), at ¶ 3(1). This provi-
    sion also grandfathers in those who lawfully possessed a
    large-capacity magazine before the effective date of the Act,
    so long as the device is used in a permitted place. 
    Id.
     5/24-
    1.10(d). It has an analogous set of exceptions for trained pro-
    fessionals. 
    Id.
     5/24-10(d), at ¶ 1.
    Broadly speaking, violations of the assault-weapon ban
    are classified as felonies when the violation involves guns or
    gun parts, and as misdemeanors when the violation involves
    .50 caliber cartridges. 
    Id.
     5/24-1(b).
    B. The Lawsuits
    The ink was barely dry on the pages of the Act when liti-
    gation began. Before us now are six related cases, in which 26
    plaintiffs have challenged the Act and the three municipal or-
    dinances we mentioned earlier. All of the challengers contend
    that the legislation in question violates their Second Amend-
    ment right to keep and bear Arms. A brief review of the indi-
    vidual cases should help keep the issues straight.
    1. Bevis v. City of Naperville (No. 23-2353)
    This case, filed in the Northern District of Illinois, was
    brought by three parties: (1) Robert Bevis, a Naperville resi-
    dent and owner of Law Weapons, Inc.; (2) Law Weapons, Inc.,
    a commercial firearms store in Naperville; and (3) the Na-
    tional Association for Gun Rights. We refer to them
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                              9
    collectively as Bevis. Once the suit was filed and landed in
    Judge Kendall’s court, Bevis’s first step was to seek a prelimi-
    nary injunction against both the Naperville ordinance and the
    Act. They were unsuccessful. Applying the standard four-
    part test for preliminary injunctions established in Winter v.
    Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., 
    555 U.S. 7
    , 20 (2008),
    Judge Kendall decided that the plaintiffs were unlikely to suc-
    ceed on the merits. This would have been an easy conclusion
    under our decision in Friedman v. City of Highland Park, 
    784 F.3d 406
     (7th Cir. 2015), but the judge was concerned that
    Friedman’s methodology may have been undermined by
    Bruen, and so she undertook a fresh analysis of the merits us-
    ing only Bruen. (We address Friedman’s continuing vitality be-
    low.)
    Judge Kendall’s efforts convinced her that “[t]he history of
    firearm regulation … establishes that governments enjoy the
    ability to regulate highly dangerous arms (and related dan-
    gerous accessories).” Bevis v. City of Naperville, No. 22 C 4775,
    
    2023 WL 2077392
    , at *14 (N.D. Ill. Feb. 17, 2023). She took par-
    ticular note of longstanding regulations on Bowie knives and
    other “melee weapons.” 
    Id.
     at *10–11. Next, she found that as-
    sault weapons fit within this tradition because they pose “an
    exceptional danger” compared with “standard self-defense
    weapons such as handguns.” Id. at *14. Critically for our pur-
    poses, after citing statistics about the lethality and injury rates
    of assault weapons, id., she highlighted the fact that “[a]ssault
    rifles can … be easily converted to … mimic military-grade
    machine guns,” id. at *15. Quoting from the Fourth Circuit,
    she observed that
    the very features that qualify a firearm as a
    banned assault weapon—such as flash
    10                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    suppressors, barrel shrouds, folding and tele-
    scoping stocks, pistol grips, grenade launchers,
    night sights, and the ability to accept bayonets
    and large-capacity magazines—serve specific,
    combat-functional ends.
    Id. (quoting Kolbe v. Hogan, 
    849 F.3d 114
    , 137 (4th Cir. 2017) (en
    banc), abrogated on other grounds by Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at 2126–27)
    (cleaned up). Finally, the judge noted that the high-capacity
    magazines exhibited similar dangers. Id.
    This was enough, in her view, to show that the plaintiffs
    were not likely to succeed on the merits. Quickly looking at
    the other three criteria for a preliminary injunction, she also
    found that without a presumption of irreparable harm related
    to the alleged Second Amendment violation, plaintiffs could
    not satisfy that factor. Bevis had not shown that the gun shop
    would lose substantial sales because of the two laws, and the
    organizational members retained other effective weapons for
    self-defense. Id. at *16. Finally, Judge Kendall concluded that
    neither the balance of equities nor the public interest favored
    plaintiffs sufficiently to overcome the inadequate showing on
    the other issues. Id. at *17.
    2. Herrera v. Raoul (No. 23-1793)
    The plaintiff in our next case, Javier Herrera, is a Chicago
    emergency room doctor who owns several assault weapons
    and large-capacity magazines. After the Act was passed, he
    filed a suit seeking both a temporary restraining order and a
    preliminary injunction against the Act, the Chicago ordi-
    nance, and the Cook County ordinance. Unlike Bevis, he also
    challenged the Act’s registration requirements (through
    which the grandfathering provisions are administered). This
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           11
    case was assigned to Judge Jenkins, who largely agreed with
    the reasoning in Bevis. See Herrera v. Raoul, No. 23 CV 532,
    
    2023 WL 3074799
     (N.D. Ill. Apr. 25, 2023). She rejected
    Hererra’s attempt to distinguish Bevis on the ground that his
    suit focused on the defense of his home, rather than on the
    public-carry right. Although she recognized that the analo-
    gies to Bowie knives and melee weapons were not perfect, she
    noted that Bruen did not demand a “dead ringer” or a “histor-
    ical twin,” especially if there are “‘dramatic technological
    changes’ or ‘unprecedented societal concerns’ [that] may re-
    quire a ‘more nuanced approach.’” Id. at *7, *9 (quoting Bruen,
    142 S. Ct. at 2133, 2132).
    With respect to the need to register a covered weapon in
    order to take advantage of the Act’s grandfathering provision,
    Judge Jenkins first assured herself that the question was ripe
    even though Herrera had not yet taken steps to register his
    guns. Id. at *8. Herrera made clear that he intended to disobey
    that law, that his intended conduct “[ran] afoul of a criminal
    statute,” and that the effective date of the registration require-
    ment was “sufficiently imminent.” Id. (quotations omitted).
    On the merits, however, she concluded that Herrera was un-
    likely to succeed because historical evidence showed that the
    “colonies required gun registration in a variety of ways,” such
    as colonial “muster” requirements and a variety of tax re-
    quirements, “which in essence required that firearms be iden-
    tified and disclosed to the government.” Id. at *9. She also took
    note of several 19th- and 20th-century laws as evidence of a
    “continuing tradition of state and national registration re-
    quirements.” Id. She found support for her ruling in the Bruen
    Court’s comment that “nothing in our analysis should be in-
    terpreted to suggest the unconstitutionality of existing ‘shall-
    12                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    issue’ licensing laws.” Id. at *10 (quoting Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at
    2138 n.9 (cleaned up)).
    Although lack of likely success on the merits pointed
    strongly toward denial of preliminary injunctive relief, Judge
    Jenkins also looked briefly at the other three factors and found
    that they pointed in the same direction. She rejected the argu-
    ment that there is an established presumption of irreparable
    harm for all Second Amendment challenges. Id. at *11. She
    was also unpersuaded by Herrera’s argument that the laws
    prevented him from protecting himself in his home and at-
    tending his monthly SWAT training (because of the commute
    time to retrieve his assault weapons from an out-of-county lo-
    cation). Herrera owned other compliant guns suitable for self-
    defense, and he had managed the commute since 2018. Id. at
    *12. Lastly, she found that neither the public interest nor the
    equities pushed the needle far enough to justify an injunction.
    Id. at *13.
    3. Barnett v. Raoul (No. 23-1825)
    The perspective reflected in the third case, which arose in
    the Southern District of Illinois, is quite different from the first
    two. In Barnett and the three other cases that were consoli-
    dated with it, the plaintiffs included individual gun owners,
    commercial firearms dealers, and various organizations de-
    voted to protecting and enhancing Second Amendment
    rights. Like their counterparts in the Northern District, these
    plaintiffs sought a preliminary injunction against the Act. Un-
    like the others, they succeeded. Judge McGlynn concluded
    that because the plaintiffs had brought a facial challenge to
    the Act, “the entirety of [the Act] as codified will be enjoined.”
    Barnett v. Raoul, No. 3:23-cv-00209-SPM (Lead Case), 
    2023 WL 3160285
    , at *2 (S.D. Ill. Apr. 28, 2023). (We put to one side the
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           13
    fact that there are many provisions of the Act that have noth-
    ing to do with gun ownership or regulation. See generally
    Pub. Act 102-1116 (2023). Presumably the judge did not mean
    to enjoin them, but if that is so, then the injunction does not
    comply with Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 65. That rule re-
    quires an injunction to indicate clearly what is forbidden or
    mandated—a rule necessitated by the fact that injunctions are
    enforceable by contempt. We need not explore this further,
    given our ultimate conclusion in these appeals.)
    With obvious reference to the two sections of the Act that
    address assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, Judge
    McGlynn chose to start with the issue of irreparable injury,
    rather than likelihood of success on the merits. He found that
    there is a presumption of irreparable harm when plaintiffs
    mount a facial challenge under the Second Amendment, and
    even if there were not, these plaintiffs had shown irreparable
    injury because the restrictions on their ability to buy or sell
    the weapons and accessories covered by the Act limited their
    right to armed self-defense. 
    2023 WL 3160285
    , at *4–5.
    The judge then moved on to likelihood of success on the
    merits. He rejected the defendants’ arguments that many of
    the Act’s provisions regulated only accessories (such as
    threaded barrels and pistol grips), which in themselves were
    not the Arms protected by the Second Amendment. Those
    items were “important corollar[ies] to the meaningful exercise
    of the core right to possess firearms for self-defense.” Id. at *8
    (quoting Ezell v. City of Chicago, 
    651 F.3d 684
    , 708 (7th Cir.
    2011)). He then moved on to consider whether the Act was
    “consistent with this Nation’s historical tradition of firearm
    regulation.” Id. at *9. For this purpose, he assigned to the de-
    fendants the burden of “(1) demonstrat[ing] that the ‘arms’ in
    14                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    [the Act] are not in ‘common use;’ and (2) ‘identify[ing] a well-
    established and representative historical analogue’ to [the
    Act].” Id. (quoting Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at 2128, 2133). He rejected
    the defendants’ argument that the weapons had to be in com-
    mon use for self-defense. The defendants failed to carry their
    burden, he held, because they “focused almost entirely on
    AR-15 rifles and their commonality or lack thereof” instead of
    the many other weapons and accessories covered by the Act.
    Id. at *10. Accepting an argument of the plaintiffs in the cases
    now before us (as well as their amici curiae), the judge held
    that AR-15s and large-capacity magazines are “in common
    use” because a large number of people own them. Id.
    Wrapping up, the judge characterized the defendants’
    proposed historical analogues as inapt, because they were
    simply concealed-carry regulations, not outright bans on pos-
    session. Id. at *11. The balance of harms, in his view, decidedly
    favored the plaintiffs, as (in his words) “there can be no harm
    to a government agency when it is prevented from enforcing
    an unconstitutional statute,” id. (cleaned up and quotation
    omitted), and he saw no evidence in the record indicating
    how the Act would help Illinois communities. He noted that
    the Act “was purportedly enacted in response to the Highland
    Park [mass] shooting,” id. at *12, but that fact was not enough
    to overcome the injury it inflicted.
    II.    Governing Law
    A. Preliminary Injunction Standard
    As our account of the proceedings in the district courts
    shows, we are not here today to rule definitively on the con-
    stitutionality of the Act or any of the municipal ordinances.
    The only issue before us concerns preliminary injunctive
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           15
    relief. The Bevis and Herrera courts denied motions for such
    an injunction, which would have suspended the operation of
    720 ILCS 5/24-1.9 and 5/24-1.10 (and the corresponding Na-
    perville, Chicago, and Cook County ordinances), and the Bar-
    nett court granted the injunction (ostensibly against the entire
    Act, as we mentioned). We entered a stay of the Barnett injunc-
    tion pending the resolution of these interlocutory appeals,
    which are authorized by 
    28 U.S.C. § 1292
    (a)(1); the order stip-
    ulated that the stay would remain in effect “until these ap-
    peals have been resolved and the court’s mandate has is-
    sued.”
    As we mentioned earlier, the leading Supreme Court de-
    cision establishing the standard for granting preliminary in-
    junctive relief is Winter v. Natural Resources Defense Council,
    Inc., 
    555 U.S. 7
     (2008). The Court summarized the pertinent
    requirements as follows:
    A plaintiff seeking a preliminary injunction
    must establish that he is likely to succeed on the
    merits, that he is likely to suffer irreparable
    harm in the absence of preliminary relief, that
    the balance of equities tips in his favor, and that
    an injunction is in the public interest.
    
    Id. at 20
    . It elaborated on these factors in a later case dealing
    with the criteria for staying a court decision, Nken v. Holder,
    
    556 U.S. 418
     (2009), noting there that “[t]here is substantial
    overlap between [the criteria for a stay] and the factors gov-
    erning preliminary injunctions.” 
    Id.
     at 434 (citing Winter, 
    555 U.S. at 24
    ). The two most important considerations are likeli-
    hood of success on the merits and irreparable harm. 
    Id.
     With
    respect to the former, the Court said that “[i]t is not enough
    that the chance of success on the merits be ‘better than
    16                                              Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    negligible.’” 
    Id.
     (quoting and disapproving Sofinet v. INS, 
    188 F.3d 703
    , 707 (7th Cir. 1999)). Nor is a mere possibility enough.
    
    Id.
     As we put it in Illinois Republican Party v. Pritzker, 
    973 F.3d 760
    , 763 (7th Cir. 2020), although the party seeking the injunc-
    tion need not demonstrate likelihood of success by a prepon-
    derance of the evidence, that party must nevertheless make a
    “strong” showing that reveals how it proposes to prove its
    case. Similarly, a mere possibility of irreparable harm will not
    suffice. See Nken, 
    556 U.S. at
    434–35; Winter, 
    555 U.S. at 22
    .
    Decisions such as Winter and Nken reflect the fact that “[a]
    preliminary injunction is an extraordinary remedy never
    awarded as of right.” Winter, 
    555 U.S. at 24
    . The party seeking
    the injunction bears the burden of showing that this type of
    relief is warranted. Nken, 
    556 U.S. at
    433–34. We must also
    bear in mind, when a party is seeking to enjoin a statute, that
    legislative enactments are entitled to a presumption of consti-
    tutionality. See Flemming v. Nestor, 
    363 U.S. 603
    , 617 (1960)
    (quoting Fletcher v. Peck, 
    10 U.S. (6 Cranch) 87
    , 128 (1810)).
    Though we carefully evaluate any claim that a statute violates
    the Constitution, we assume that the legislative body—
    whether Congress or a state legislature—was aware of consti-
    tutional limitations and endeavored to follow them.
    Finally, we note that a hybrid standard of review applies
    to interlocutory review of a preliminary injunction: “we re-
    view the district court’s findings of fact for clear error, its legal
    conclusions de novo, and its balancing of the factors for a pre-
    liminary injunction for abuse of discretion.” Doe v. University
    of Southern Indiana, 
    43 F.4th 784
    , 791 (7th Cir. 2022) (brackets
    and quotation omitted).
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                             17
    B. The Second Amendment
    The basic contours of the second article of the Bill of Rights
    have become familiar, and so we will only summarize them
    here. In a crisp, if not enigmatic, way, it says this: “A well reg-
    ulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State,
    the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be
    infringed.” U.S. CONST. amend. II. For many years, both the
    Supreme Court and scholars thought that there was a relation
    between the prefatory clause, which refers to the Militia, and
    the operative clause, which refers to the right to keep and bear
    Arms. See, e.g., ROBERT H. BORK, SLOUCHING TOWARDS
    GOMORRAH: MODERN LIBERALISM AND AMERICAN DECLINE 166
    (rev. ed. 2003). But in Heller the Supreme Court severed that
    connection. Undertaking its own examination of the events
    that led up to the Amendment’s inclusion in the Constitution,
    it concluded that the Amendment recognized an individual
    right to keep and bear Arms.
    At the same time, Heller held that “[l]ike most rights, the
    right secured by the Second Amendment is not unlimited.”
    
    554 U.S. at 626
    . It continued as follows:
    From Blackstone through the 19th-century
    cases, commentators and courts routinely ex-
    plained that the right was not a right to keep
    and carry any weapon whatsoever in any man-
    ner whatsoever and for whatever purpose.
    
    Id.
     This opened up new frontiers of litigation: Which weapons
    are covered? What manner of “keeping and bearing” is pro-
    tected? What purpose must or may the user have? Which peo-
    ple hold this right? The Heller Court recognized that there was
    much left to be resolved. It did give some hints, however. One
    18                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    important tea leaf for present purposes was its refusal to en-
    dorse the idea that the Amendment protects “only those
    weapons useful in warfare.” 
    Id. at 624
    . It called this a “star-
    tling reading,” since that would have implied that ma-
    chineguns—quintessential weapons used exclusively by the
    military, not private citizens—could not be regulated, in the
    face of the National Firearms Act’s restrictions on those weap-
    ons. Id.; see also 
    Pub. L. No. 73-474, 48
     Stat. 1236 (1934).
    Perhaps the most important expansion of Heller occurred
    in McDonald, in which the Supreme Court confirmed that the
    Second Amendment, like the First, Fourth, Fifth, Sixth, and
    Eighth Amendments, applies to the states through incorpora-
    tion pursuant to the Fourteenth Amendment. See 
    561 U.S. at 750
    . The late date of the McDonald decision—2010—explains
    why there are so few cases exploring the Second Amendment
    implications of state laws regulating weapons from the time
    the Amendment became part of the Constitution (1791) to the
    present. Under the view that prevailed until McDonald, the
    states were free to regulate weapons in any way compatible
    with their own constitutions. See generally Jeffrey S. Sutton,
    51 Imperfect Solutions: States and the Making of American Consti-
    tutional Law (2018). And they did so in countless ways—a
    point of some significance when we come to consider the his-
    tory and tradition of regulation in this area.
    After McDonald, most courts of appeals adopted a two-
    step test for legality under the Second Amendment. See, e.g.,
    Ezell, 651 F.3d at 702–03. Step one asked whether the “chal-
    lenged firearms law regulates activity falling outside the
    scope of the Second Amendment right as it was understood
    [historically].” Id. If the regulated activity was unprotected,
    then the law in question was not subject to further Second
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           19
    Amendment review. If, however, history showed that the ac-
    tivity was protected, or the evidence was inconclusive, step
    two called on the court to balance the public benefit the gov-
    ernment was seeking to achieve against the regulatory means
    it selected, using a form of heightened scrutiny. Id. at 703.
    Some courts, including our own, steered clear of that two-
    step approach. That explains the path we chose in Friedman,
    which dealt with exactly the same issue we face now: a ban
    on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. Although
    the district court in Bevis thought that the reasoning in Fried-
    man might not have survived Bruen, we see Friedman as basi-
    cally compatible with Bruen, insofar as Friedman anticipated
    the need to rest the analysis on history, not on a free-form bal-
    ancing test.
    After briefly reviewing the holdings in Heller and McDon-
    ald, Friedman turned to the question of the scope of the indi-
    vidual right to keep and bear Arms. It began by summarizing
    the Court’s own historical analysis in Heller:
    [The Court] cautioned against interpreting the
    [Heller] decision to cast doubt on “longstanding
    prohibitions,” including the “historical tradi-
    tion of prohibiting the carrying of ‘dangerous
    and unusual weapons.’” [554 U.S.] at 623, 627. It
    observed that state militias, when called to ser-
    vice, often had asked members to come armed
    with the sort of weapons that were “in common
    use at the time”, id. at 624, and it thought these
    kinds of weapons (which have changed over the
    years) are protected by the Second Amendment
    in private hands, while military-grade weapons
    (the sort that would be in a militia’s armory),
    20                                               Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    such as machine guns, and weapons especially
    attractive to criminals, such as short-barreled
    shotguns, are not. Id. at 624–25.
    784 F.3d at 407–08. The plaintiffs in Friedman had contended
    that “there is no ‘historical tradition’ of banning possession of
    semi-automatic guns and large-capacity magazines.” Id. at
    408. But, we observed, “this argument proves too much: its
    logic extends to bans on machine guns, … [but] Heller deemed
    a ban on private possession of machine guns to be obviously
    valid.” Id. (citing Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 624
    ). That was so even
    though states “didn’t begin to regulate private use of machine
    guns until 1927,” and the federal government did not do so
    until 1934. 
    Id.
    The critical question of “[h]ow weapons are sorted be-
    tween private and military uses,” we noted, “has changed
    over time.” 
    Id.
     Anticipating Bruen, we rejected a historical fo-
    cus on the 1920s, when these bans started to come into exist-
    ence, and turned instead to the time of the Second Amend-
    ment’s adoption. 
    Id.
     With respect to the common ownership
    and use question, we cautioned against circular reasoning:
    Machine guns aren’t commonly owned for law-
    ful purposes today because they are illegal;
    semi-automatic weapons with large-capacity
    magazines are owned more commonly because,
    until recently (in some jurisdictions), they have
    been legal. Yet it would be absurd to say that the
    reason why a particular weapon can be banned
    is that there is a statute banning it, so that it isn’t
    commonly owned. A law’s existence can’t be the
    source of its own constitutional validity.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                      21
    Id. at 409. 5 We were not persuaded by the plaintiffs’ efforts to
    put semiautomatic weapons on the “private” or “mixed” side
    of the line between private or mixed private/military weap-
    ons, on the one hand, and weapons exclusively for military
    use, on the other. We were reluctant to place semiautomatic
    weapons in the former category for the simple reason that the
    Heller Court had not done so. Instead, in distinguishing United
    States v. Miller, 
    307 U.S. 174
     (1939), we reaffirmed “the rule
    that the Second Amendment does not authorize private per-
    sons to possess weapons such as machine guns and sawed-off
    shotguns that the government would not expect (or allow) cit-
    izens to bring with them when the militia is called to service.”
    784 F.3d at 408.
    Conspicuously absent from our Friedman analysis is any
    hint of the two-part test that Bruen disapproved. We looked
    instead to the type of Arms that the Second Amendment has
    always protected for private use and contrasted them with
    weapons reserved for military use. We expressly declined to
    subject Highland Park’s law to means-end scrutiny. Id. at 410.
    Instead, we said, “we think it better to ask whether a regula-
    tion bans weapons that were common at the time of ratifica-
    tion or those that have ‘some reasonable relationship to the
    preservation or efficiency of a well regulated militia,’ … and
    whether law-abiding citizens retain adequate means of self-
    defense.” Id. (quoting Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 622
     (quoting Miller,
    
    307 U.S. at 178
    )). This approach, we believe, is consistent with
    the methodology approved in Bruen.
    5 The dissent embraces the reasoning we rejected in Friedman; it asserts
    that circularity concerns are more hypothetical than actual. See post at 62
    n.4 (citing Friedman, 784 F.3d at 416 n.5 (Manion, J., dissenting)).
    22                                              Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    Pointing to Wilson v. Cook County, 
    937 F.3d 1028
     (7th Cir.
    2019) (per curiam), the dissent sees Friedman differently. It
    notes that one can find language in Wilson that characterizes
    Friedman as “evaluat[ing] the importance of the reasons for
    the [assault weapons ban] to determine whether they justified
    the ban’s intrusion on Second Amendment rights.” 937 F.3d
    at 1036. But this language is pure dicta. It may represent the
    Wilson panel’s attempt to put a gloss on Friedman, but it did
    not change the actual legal test that Friedman applied. The is-
    sue in Wilson, recall, was whether Friedman could be recon-
    ciled with Ezell, which struck down Chicago’s ban on firing
    ranges within city limits. See id. at 1035. On that issue, Wilson
    found that “Friedman fits comfortably under the umbrella of
    Ezell” and that it “represents the application and extension of
    its principles to the specific context of a ban on assault weap-
    ons and large-capacity magazines.” Id. at 1036. Indeed, Wilson
    is notable for what it did not say: it never said that Friedman
    had used intermediate scrutiny or means-end balancing; and
    it did not depict Friedman as evaluating only the importance
    of the reasons behind the ordinance at issue there. The fleeting
    reference to the city’s reasons for adopting the ordinance, in
    short, was not part of the panel’s reasoning, and so, while cer-
    tainly disapproved in Bruen, does not undermine the central
    analysis in the case.
    We have now referred many times to Bruen, and finally, it
    takes center stage. Rejecting the two-part test adopted by the
    courts of appeals (which it derided as having “one step too
    many,” 142 S. Ct. at 2127), the Bruen Court elaborated on the
    test that Heller requires. See 142 S. Ct. at 2129–30. First, it said,
    the trial court must decide whether “the Second Amend-
    ment’s plain text covers an individual’s conduct.” Id. If so,
    then “the Constitution presumptively protects that conduct.”
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                             23
    Id. at 2130. The analysis then moves to the second step, which
    calls on the “government [to] justify its regulation by demon-
    strating that it is consistent with the Nation’s historical tradi-
    tion of firearm regulation.” Id. The Court predicted that this
    second step would be relatively easy in some instances, when
    historical analogues are easy to find. But in other instances, it
    recognized that the task would be challenging. It singled out
    “cases implicating unprecedented societal concerns or dra-
    matic technological changes,” which “may require a more nu-
    anced approach.” Id. at 2132.
    Bruen also confirmed some additional points that inform
    our analysis. First, the Court said (not for the first time) that
    the Arms protected by the Second Amendment are not limited
    to those that were in existence at the time of its ratification,
    1791, or at the time the Fourteenth Amendment took effect,
    1868. Id. Second, the search is for a historical regulation that is
    relevantly similar, not identical. Bearing in mind that “the cen-
    tral component” of the Second Amendment right is individual
    self-defense, id. at 2133 (quoting McDonald, 
    561 U.S. at 767
    (emphasis in original)), the question is whether the modern
    and historical regulations “impose a comparable burden on
    the right of armed self-defense and whether that burden is
    comparably justified,” 
    id.
     And the Court made it clear that this
    search was a meaningful one, not just a subterfuge for either
    upholding or striking down all modern laws:
    [A]nalogical reasoning under the Second
    Amendment is neither a regulatory straight-
    jacket nor a regulatory blank check. On the one
    hand, courts should not uphold every modern
    law that remotely resembles a historical ana-
    logue, because doing so risk[s] endorsing
    24                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    outliers that our ancestors would never have ac-
    cepted. On the other hand, analogical reasoning
    requires only that the government identify a
    well-established and representative historical
    analogue, not a historical twin. So even if a mod-
    ern-day regulation is not a dead ringer for his-
    torical precursors, it still may be analogous
    enough to pass constitutional muster.
    
    Id.
     (quotation and citation omitted, and second alteration and
    emphases in original). Finally, the Court’s decision in Bruen
    builds on, rather than disturbs, Heller and McDonald. See id. at
    2157 (Alito, J., concurring); id. at 2161 (Kavanaugh, J., concur-
    ring). Justice Alito in particular took care to make this point
    when he wrote “[n]or does [Bruen] decide anything about the
    kinds of weapons that people may possess.” Id. at 2157 (Alito,
    J., concurring). Bruen simply “made the constitutional stand-
    ard endorsed in Heller more explicit” and applied it to the
    handgun regulation at issue. Id. at 2134.
    Our task is to apply Bruen’s methodology to the four laws
    before us. We begin by assessing whether the assault weapons
    and large-capacity magazines described in those laws are
    Arms for purposes of the Second Amendment. If not, then the
    Second Amendment has nothing to say about these laws:
    units of government are free to permit them, or not to permit
    them, depending on the outcome of the democratic process. If
    they are properly characterized as Arms, then we must pro-
    ceed to Bruen’s second step, at which the governments bear
    the burden of proof, and determine whether these laws pass
    muster.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                             25
    III.    Application to the Cases
    A. Are the Covered Weapons “Arms”?
    We begin by looking at the “plain text” of the Second
    Amendment to see whether the assault weapons and large-
    capacity magazines (terms that we, like the parties, continue
    to use as short-hand for the many items covered by these
    laws) fall within the scope of the “Arms” that individual per-
    sons are entitled to keep and bear. Both Supreme Court deci-
    sions and historical sources indicate that the Arms the Second
    Amendment is talking about are weapons in common use for
    self-defense. That is not to say that there are no other lawful
    uses for weapons—sporting uses, collection, and competi-
    tions come to mind as examples. But the constitutional pro-
    tection exists to protect the individual right to self-defense,
    and so that will be our focus.
    Our starting point is, once again, Heller. It began by inter-
    preting the object of the Second Amendment right: Arms. See
    
    554 U.S. at 581
    . It is worth a close look at this part of the opin-
    ion:
    The 18th-century meaning is no different from
    the meaning today. The 1773 edition of Samuel
    Johnson’s dictionary defined “arms” as
    “[w]eapons of offence, or armour of defence.” 1
    Dictionary of the English Language 106 (4th ed.)
    (reprinted 1978). Timothy Cunningham’s im-
    portant 1771 legal dictionary defined “arms” as
    “any thing that a man wears for his defence, or
    takes into his hands, or useth in wrath to cast at
    or strike another.” 1 A New and Complete Law
    Dictionary; see also N. Webster, American
    26                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    Dictionary of the English Language (1828) (re-
    printed 1989) (similar).
    The term was applied, then as now, to weap-
    ons that were not specifically designed for military
    use and were not employed in a military capacity.
    For instance, Cunningham’s legal dictionary
    gave as an example of usage: “Servants and la-
    bourers shall use bows and arrows on Sundays,
    &c. and not bear other arms.” … Although one
    founding-era thesaurus limited “arms” (as op-
    posed to “weapons”) to “instruments of offence
    generally made use of in war,” even that source
    stated that all firearms constituted “arms.” 1 J.
    Trusler, The Distinction Between Words Es-
    teemed Synonymous in the English Language
    37 (3d ed. 1794) (emphasis added).
    
    554 U.S. at
    581–82 (first emphasis and ellipsis added, and
    “hereinafter” parentheticals omitted). Summarizing, the
    Court said that “the Second Amendment extends, prima facie,
    to all instruments that constitute bearable arms.” 
    Id. at 582
    .
    But what exactly falls within the scope of “bearable”
    Arms? Not machineguns, the Court said, because they can be
    dedicated exclusively to military use. See 
    id. at 624
    . Yet a nor-
    mal person can certainly pick up and carry a machinegun, or
    for that matter the portable nuclear weapons we mentioned at
    the outset. “Bearable” thus must mean more than “transport-
    able” or “capable of being held.” See 
    id. at 627
     (discussing
    “weapons that are most useful in military service—M16 rifles
    and the like,” which “may be banned”).
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                             27
    The Court’s comments about the role of the militia shed
    light on the scope of the term “Arms.” It explained that “[t]he
    traditional militia was formed from a pool of men bringing
    arms ‘in common use at the time’ for lawful purposes like self-
    defense.” 
    Id. at 624
    . It then concluded that “the Second
    Amendment does not protect those weapons not typically
    possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes, such
    as short-barreled shotguns. That accords with the historical
    understanding of the scope of the right.” 
    Id. at 625
     (emphasis
    added). We take from this that the definition of “bearable
    Arms” extends only to weapons in common use for a lawful
    purpose. That lawful purpose, as we have said several times,
    is at its core the right to individual self-defense.
    This approach is consistent with the historical antecedents
    on which the Second Amendment was based. Chief among
    those was the 1689 English Bill of Rights, which is a key pre-
    cursor to the bills of rights in the U.S. state and federal consti-
    tutions. The 1689 Bill of Rights “explicitly protected a right to
    keep arms for self-defense.” McDonald, 
    561 U.S. at 768
    . Simi-
    larly, Blackstone explained that at the root of the right to bear
    arms, there is a “natural right of resistance and self-preserva-
    tion,” and “the right of having and using arms for self-preser-
    vation and defence.” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 594
     (quoting
    1 WILLIAM BLACKSTONE, COMMENTARIES *139, *140). State con-
    stitutional protections from the Founding Era confirm this un-
    derstanding. As Heller observed, “nine state constitutional
    provisions written in the 18th century or the first two decades
    of the 19th … enshrined a right of citizens to bear arms in de-
    fense of themselves and the state or bear arms in defense of
    himself and the state.” 
    554 U.S. at
    584–85, 585 n.8 (citing the
    state constitutions of Pennsylvania, Vermont, Kentucky, Ohio,
    28                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    Indiana, Mississippi, Connecticut, Alabama, and Missouri)
    (quotations omitted).
    In order to show a likelihood of success on the merits, the
    plaintiffs in each of the cases before us thus have the burden
    of showing that the weapons addressed in the pertinent leg-
    islation are Arms that ordinary people would keep at home
    for purposes of self-defense, not weapons that are exclusively
    or predominantly useful in military service, or weapons that
    are not possessed for lawful purposes. This search for the cor-
    rect meaning of “Arms” for the Second Amendment is con-
    sistent with our approach to its companions in the Bill of
    Rights. When interpreting the text of a constitutional provi-
    sion or a statute, we often resort to contemporaneous diction-
    aries or other sources of context to ensure that we are under-
    standing the word in the way its drafters intended. In Fourth
    Amendment cases, we ask whether the place or item searched
    falls within the Amendment’s scope. See, e.g., California v. Ci-
    raolo, 
    476 U.S. 207
    , 213–14 (1986) (aerial view of backyard). For
    purposes of the Sixth Amendment, before we apply the Con-
    frontation Clause we must ensure that a particular statement
    was testimonial. See, e.g., Ohio v. Clark, 
    576 U.S. 237
    , 243–44,
    247 (2015) (child’s responses to questions from a teacher). The
    famous Fifth Amendment right against compulsory self-in-
    crimination attaches only if the person is in custody, despite
    no mention of custody in the “plain text” of the Amendment.
    See, e.g., New York v. Quarles, 
    467 U.S. 649
    , 654 (1984).
    We find substantial support for the proposition that the
    Arms protected by the Second Amendment do not include
    weapons that may be reserved for military use. We already
    have pointed to language in the Supreme Court’s opinions to
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                        29
    this effect. 6 The dissent, relying heavily on Staples v. United
    States, 
    511 U.S. 600
     (1994), contends that the Court has already
    decided that the AR-15 is in common use, and thus that the
    weapon is presumptively immune from regulation. See post at
    67. We see no such holding in Staples. That case had nothing
    to do with the Second Amendment, which is mentioned no-
    where in the opinion. The Court handed down the Staples de-
    cision five months before Congress enacted the Federal Assault
    Weapons Ban, when as a matter of federal law it was lawful
    to own an AR-15. (We assume that this statute is of little rele-
    vance to our historical inquiry, given the Supreme Court’s in-
    sistence that the relevant time to consult is 1791, or maybe
    1868, not the late 20th century.) The status of the AR-15 at the
    time Staples was decided provides a ready explanation for
    why the Court asserted (with no empirical support) that the
    AR-15 is among the weapons that have been “widely accepted
    as lawful possessions.” 
    511 U.S. at 612
    . Interestingly, the Sta-
    ples Court contrasted the AR-15s with grenades, the posses-
    sion of which it said “is not an innocent act.” 
    Id. at 610
     (quo-
    tation omitted). It said the same about “machineguns, sawed-
    off shotguns, and artillery pieces.” 
    Id. at 611
    . Overall, we see
    6 We note, too, that this court was not the first to observe the line that
    Heller recognized, and which was applied to the states in McDonald. For
    example, over a decade ago, and three years before Friedman, one scholar
    of the Second Amendment wrote that “Heller and McDonald … focused on
    the right of a law-abiding person to have a handgun in his or her home for
    self-protection,” but “[n]either case foreclosed reasonable gun regula-
    tions,” including “bans on military weapons wholly unnecessary for ordi-
    nary self-defense,” “limits on the size of gun clips,” and “registration and
    permit requirements.” See Akhil Reed Amar, Gun Control After Newtown
    (Dec. 26, 2012), reprinted in THE CONSTITUTION TODAY: TIMELESS LESSONS
    FOR THE ISSUES OF OUR ERA 230, 231 (2016).
    30                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    nothing in Staples that decides whether the Second Amend-
    ment protects AR-15s, though we do find much in the opinion
    that reinforces the line we discern from Heller, and which is
    confirmed by history.
    When we compare the AR-15s and other semiautomatic
    weapons covered by the Act and its counterparts, we come to
    the same conclusion. Indeed, we asked the plaintiffs at oral
    argument to explain what distinguishes AR-15s from M16s,
    the military’s counterpart that is capable of both fully auto-
    matic operation and semiautomatic operation. The question
    is important precisely because Heller itself stated that M16s
    are not among the Arms covered by the Second Amendment;
    they are instead a military weapon. See 
    554 U.S. at 624, 627
    .
    The plaintiffs’ responses to our question were unconvinc-
    ing. They argued, for instance, that civilians do not regard
    machineguns as useful for self-defense, but that is because
    they cannot purchase machineguns. It is not too much of a
    stretch to think that some people might like the fully auto-
    matic feature of a machinegun, if they were hoping to defend
    their families, their property, and themselves from invaders.
    The plaintiffs also noted that machineguns are more expen-
    sive than semiautomatic weapons, but we cannot believe that
    an item’s entitlement to constitutional protection depends on
    its price. Finally, with a nod to the “lawful use” criterion, the
    plaintiffs said that when machineguns were available to civil-
    ians (early in the 20th century), they were primarily used by
    criminals. But this tells us nothing about how use of those
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                      31
    guns would have evolved, had they remained legal and read-
    ily available. 7
    Coming directly to the question whether the weapons and
    feeding devices covered by the challenged legislation enjoy
    Second Amendment protection, at the first step of the Bruen
    analysis, we conclude that the answer is no. We come to this
    conclusion because these assault weapons and high-capacity
    magazines are much more like machineguns and military-
    grade weaponry than they are like the many different types
    of firearms that are used for individual self-defense (or so the
    legislature was entitled to conclude). 8 Indeed, the AR-15 is al-
    most the same gun as the M16 machinegun. The only mean-
    ingful distinction, as we already have noted, is that the AR-15
    has only semiautomatic capability (unless the user takes ad-
    vantage of some simple modifications that essentially make it
    fully automatic), while the M16 operates both ways. Both
    7 It appears that there is a large and growing demand for guns in gen-
    eral. Since 1986, the number of guns manufactured each year has almost
    quadrupled, from around 3 million in 1986 to almost 11 million in 2013.
    See Scott Horsley, Guns in America, by the Numbers, NPR (Jan. 5, 2016),
    https://www.npr.org/2016/01/05/462017461/guns-in-america-by-the-
    numbers. There is no reason to think that machineguns would not have
    followed the same pattern, had they been lawful in civilian hands.
    8 Obviously, many weapons are “dual use”: private parties have a
    constitutionally protected right to “keep and bear” them and the military
    provides them to its forces. In this sense, there is a thumb on the scale in
    favor of Second Amendment protection. When we refer to “military”
    weapons here, we mean weapons that may be essentially reserved to the
    military.
    32                                                    Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    weapons share the same core design, and both rely on the
    same patented operating system. 9
    The similarity between the AR-15 and the M16 only in-
    creases when we take into account how easy it is to modify
    the AR-15 by adding a “bump stock” (as the shooter in the
    2017 Las Vegas event had done) or auto-sear to it, thereby
    making it, in essence, a fully automatic weapon. In a decision
    addressing a ban on bump stocks enacted by the Maryland
    legislature, another federal court found that bump-stock de-
    vices enable “rates of fire between 400 to 800 rounds per mi-
    nute.” Maryland Shall Issue v. Hogan, 
    353 F. Supp. 3d 400
    , 404
    (D. Md. Nov. 16, 2018) (quotation omitted). To the same effect,
    the Fourth Circuit noted that “[t]he difference between the
    fully automatic and semiautomatic versions of [the AR-15 and
    AK-47] is slight. That is, the automatic firing of all the ammu-
    nition in a large-capacity thirty-round magazine takes about
    two seconds, whereas a semiautomatic rifle can empty the
    same magazine in as little as five seconds.” Kolbe, 849 F.3d at
    125. The District of Columbia Circuit also noted that “semi-
    automatics … fire almost as rapidly as automatics.” Heller v.
    District of Columbia, 
    670 F.3d 1244
    , 1263 (D.C. Cir. 2011), on re-
    mand from Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    ; see also ATF Ruling 2006-2, at
    2 (Dec. 13, 2006) (discussing a device (apparently the “Akins
    Accelerator,” an early bump-stock device) that “is advertised
    to fire approximately 650 rounds per minute”).
    9 See ARMALITE, INC., Technical Note 54: Direct Impingement Versus Pis-
    ton Drive (July 3, 2010), available at https://wayback.archive-
    it.org/all/20120905024032/http://www.armalite.com/im-
    ages/Tech%20Notes%5CTech%20Note%2054,%20Gas%20vs%20Op%20R
    od%20Drive,%20020815.pdf.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                            33
    There are a few other differences between the AR-15 and
    the M16, but none that is relevant. The M16 has an automatic
    firing rate of 700 rounds per minute, while the AR-15 has a
    semiautomatic rate of “only” 300 rounds per minute—unless,
    as we have just noted, it is modified with, for example, a
    bump stock or a “binary” trigger, which can double the rate
    at which semiautomatic weapons can be fired. Both models
    use the same ammunition, deliver the same kinetic energy
    (1220–1350 foot-pounds), the same muzzle velocity (2800–
    3100 feet per second), and the same effective range (602–875
    yards). And these comments apply with equal force to the
    high-capacity handguns that are restricted by these laws. The
    latter are almost indistinguishable from the 17- or 21-round
    M17 and M18 pistols that are standard-issue in the military.
    But what about the possibility that the AR-15 (and its
    many cousins covered by the Act) as sold is an Arm, even
    though simple modifications can transform it into a military
    weapon? On the one hand, this might support an argument
    against the Act, which focuses initially on the product as sold.
    On the other hand, there is a serious question whether the leg-
    islature sought to prevent users from deconstructing weapons
    into (or assembling weapons from) their constituent parts in
    order to evade the core regulation. If the AR-15 by itself is not
    a machinegun because it fires “only” at the rate of 300 rounds
    per minute, and the auto-sear is also not a machinegun be-
    cause it is just a component that holds a hammer in the cocked
    position, that would be a road map for assembling ma-
    chineguns and avoiding legitimate regulations of their private
    use and carry. A question of this nature is raised in VanDerStok
    v. Garland, No. 4:22-cv-00691-O, 
    2023 WL 4539591
     (N.D. Tex.
    June 30, 2023), appeal docketed, No. 23-10718, 
    2023 WL 4945360
    (5th Cir. July 24, 2023), and stay pending appeal granted sub nom.
    34                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    Garland v. Vanderstok, No. 23A82, 
    2023 WL 5023383
     (U.S. Aug.
    8, 2023), where the Supreme Court has issued a stay of a dis-
    trict court’s order vacating a federal “ghost gun” regulation,
    
    87 Fed. Reg. 24652
     (Apr. 26, 2022). See also Garland v. Black-
    hawk Mfg. Grp., Inc., No. 23A302, 
    2023 WL 6801523
     (U.S. Oct.
    16, 2023) (vacating a second injunction limited to the parties).
    Neither the parties nor the evidence before us addressed
    these points, but the district courts may explore them as the
    cases move forward. Better data on firing rates might change
    the analysis of whether the AR-15 and comparable weapons
    fall on the military or civilian side of the line. We note in this
    connection that it is one thing to say that the AR-15 is capable
    of firing at a rate of 300 rounds per minute and the compara-
    ble rate for the M16 is 700 rounds per minute, but quite an-
    other to address actual firing capacity, which accounts for the
    need to change magazines. No one here has suggested that
    the M16 comes with a 700-round magazine, or for that matter
    that the AR-15 comes with a 300-round magazine. Either one
    must be reloaded multiple times to fire so many rounds. Fac-
    toring in the reloading time, the record may show that the two
    weapons differ more—or less—than it appears here.
    Turning now to large-capacity magazines, we conclude
    that they also can lawfully be reserved for military use. Recall
    that these are defined by the Act as feeding devices that have
    in excess of 10 rounds for a rifle and 15 rounds for a handgun.
    Anyone who wants greater firepower is free under these laws
    to purchase several magazines of the permitted size. Thus, the
    person who might have preferred buying a magazine that
    loads 30 rounds can buy three 10-round magazines instead.
    Based on the record before us, we are not persuaded that
    the AR-15 is materially different from the M16. Heller informs
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           35
    us that the latter weapon is not protected by the Second
    Amendment, and therefore may be regulated or banned. Be-
    cause it is indistinguishable from that machinegun, the AR-15
    may be treated in the same manner without offending the Sec-
    ond Amendment.
    We conclude this portion of the opinion by stressing again
    that this is just a preliminary look at the subject. That assess-
    ment persuades us, as it did Judges Kendall and Jenkins, that
    the plaintiffs have not shown a strong likelihood of success on
    the merits. But, as we previously have recognized, Second
    Amendment challenges to gun regulations often require more
    evidence than is presented in the early phases of litigation. See
    Atkinson v. Garland, 
    70 F.4th 1018
    , 1023–25 (7th Cir. 2023) (va-
    cating the district court’s order dismissing a Second Amend-
    ment challenge to a federal statute and remanding with a list
    of specific questions to consider as the case proceeded). There
    thus will be more to come, and we do not rule out the possi-
    bility that the plaintiffs will find other evidence that shows a
    sharper distinction between AR-15s and M16s (and each one’s
    relatives) than the present record reveals.
    B. Historical Tradition
    Although we are satisfied that these appeals can be re-
    solved at the first step of the Bruen framework—are the weap-
    ons among the Arms protected by the Second Amendment—
    for the sake of completeness we now turn to the question
    whether, if the weapons covered by the statutes before us
    ought to be considered bearable “Arms,” the laws nonetheless
    pass muster under Bruen’s second step. In short, are these
    laws consistent with the history and tradition of firearms reg-
    ulation? Here, too, at the preliminary injunction stage, we
    36                                           Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    conclude that the plaintiffs have not shown the necessary like-
    lihood of success on the merits.
    In discussing whether these assault weapons and large-ca-
    pacity magazines are Arms protected by the Second Amend-
    ment, we have (as instructed by Bruen) confined ourselves to
    textual considerations. There is another aspect of the Bruen
    framework, which is whether the regulated weapons are “in
    common use.” There is no consensus on whether the com-
    mon-use issue belongs at Bruen step one or Bruen step two.
    The plaintiffs argue that it belongs at the second step. We will
    assume (without deciding the question) that this is a step two
    inquiry, where the state bears the burden of proof. Even with
    that leeway, we do not find this factor to be very helpful.
    In this respect, we find the analysis in Friedman to be par-
    ticularly useful, and unlike the district courts, we do not be-
    lieve that the relevant portion was undermined by Bruen. We
    recognized in Friedman that “common use” is a slippery con-
    cept. Suppose, for example, a new type of handgun is intro-
    duced to the market on January 1, 2024. As of that day, zero
    guns of that type have been sold. Yet if its characteristics are
    analogous to those of the many other types of handguns avail-
    able for consumers, no one would say that this new handgun
    was not within the class of Arms protected by the Second
    Amendment. At the other end of the spectrum, consider the
    actual case of machineguns, which for a time were available
    for civilian purchase, but which were eventually withdrawn
    from that market. However popular machineguns might have
    been, either in organized crime circles or more generally, be-
    cause their characteristics were military in nature, the deci-
    sion to reserve them to military use was within the power of
    the legislature.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                          37
    The dissent repeatedly makes the point that the assault
    weapons covered by the challenged legislation are obviously
    in common use, because there are so many in private hands.
    Indeed, the dissent’s argument boils down to two proposi-
    tions: first, it contends that the fact that many people own as-
    sault weapons insulates them from regulation; and second, it
    makes the surprising assertion that assault weapons are not
    particularly dangerous. The latter proposition finds no empir-
    ical support in the record, and the former, as we will explain,
    does not carry the day.
    The plaintiffs present basically the same argument. One
    brief asserts that at least 20 million AR-15s and similar rifles
    are owned by some 16 million citizens (though they do not
    specify how many of these owners would fall within the large
    carveout created by the grandfather and the trained profes-
    sional exceptions to the Act). The plaintiffs also assert that at
    least 150 million magazines with a capacity greater than 10
    rounds have been bought for private use. (The state criticizes
    these numbers for being based, it says, on “an unpublished,
    non-peer-reviewed paper recounting an online survey that
    does not disclose its funding or measurement tools.” We have
    no need for present purposes to resolve that dispute.) Cook
    County offers a different perspective, noting that of all the
    firearms in the country, only 5.3% are assault weapons, and
    that percentage includes those held by law-enforcement agen-
    cies. One is reminded of Mark Twain’s apocryphal remark,
    “There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statis-
    tics.”
    For the reasons set forth in more detail in Friedman, we de-
    cline to base our assessment of the constitutionality of these
    laws on numbers alone. Such an analysis would have
    38                                                    Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    anomalous consequences. The problem with this approach
    can be seen in the case of the AR-15. When, in 1994, the Fed-
    eral Assault Weapons Ban made civilian possession of AR-15s
    (among other assault weapons) unlawful, see Pub. L. No. 103-
    322, § 110102, 
    108 Stat. 1796
    , 1996, few civilians owned AR-
    15s. But in 2004, after the legislation was allowed to expire
    pursuant to its sunset provision, 
    id.
     § 110105(2), 108 Stat. at
    2000, these weapons began to occupy a more significant share
    of the market. Indeed, most of the AR-15s now in use were
    manufactured in the past two decades. 10 Thus, if we looked to
    numbers alone, the federal ban would have been constitu-
    tional before 2004, but unconstitutional thereafter. This con-
    clusion is essential to the plaintiffs’ position, yet it lacks both
    textual and historical provenance.
    As this example illustrates, the idea of “common use” can-
    not be severed from the historical scope of the common-law
    right that the Second Amendment was designed to protect
    against encroachment. In other words, the relevant question
    is what are the modern analogues to the weapons people used
    for individual self-defense in 1791, and perhaps as late as
    1868. This would exclude the weapons used exclusively by
    the military—and every Framer of the Second Amendment
    was well aware by 1791 that the King of England had an im-
    pressive standing army, and that such weapons existed. The
    weapons used for self-defense are the ones that Heller,
    McDonald, Caetano, and Bruen had in mind—not a militaristic
    10 See Aaron O’Neill, Annual Share of AR-15 Assault Rifles in the Total
    Number of Firearms Manufactured in the United States from 1990 to 2020,
    STATISTA (June 2, 2023), https://www.statista.com/statistics/1388010/share-
    ar-15-united-states-firearm-production-historical/.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                            39
    weapon such as the AR-15, which is capable of inflicting the
    grisly damage described in some of the briefs.
    Bruen recognized that even Arms (i.e., non-militaristic
    weapons) may be regulated, as long as the regulation is “part
    of an enduring American tradition of state regulation.” 142 S.
    Ct. at 2155. A regulation is a part of this tradition if one can
    provide answers to two questions: (1) how, and (2) why, does
    a given regulation “burden a law-abiding citizen’s right to
    armed self-defense”? Id. at 2133. With respect to the “how”
    question, judges are instructed to consider “whether modern
    and historical regulations impose a comparable burden” on
    that right. Id. For all its disclaiming of balancing approaches,
    Bruen appears to call for just that: a broader restriction bur-
    dens the Second Amendment right more, and thus requires a
    closer analogical fit between the modern regulation and tra-
    ditional ones; a narrower restriction with less impact on the
    constitutional right might survive with a looser fit. It is at this
    stage that many courts, as well as the state parties here, point
    to the long-standing tradition of regulating the especially
    dangerous weapons of the time, whether they were firearms,
    explosives, Bowie knives, or other like devices. (The regula-
    tions we list below are representative of this tradition.) The
    dissent cannot deny that regulation existed; it relies only on
    the fact that the particulars of those regulations varied from
    place to place, and that some were more absolute than others.
    But the same is true in our case. The laws before us have one
    huge carve-out: people who presently own the listed firearms
    or ammunition are entitled to keep them, subject only to a reg-
    istration requirement that is no more onerous than many
    found in history. In addition, as we noted at the outset, the
    laws do not purport to regulate many other special uses. This
    40                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    is enough, in our view, to satisfy the “how” question Bruen
    identified.
    The “why” question is another one that at first blush
    seems hard to distinguish from the discredited means/end
    analysis. But we will do our best. Bruen makes clear that the
    question whether a burden is “comparably justified” cannot
    be answered by pointing to the gravity of the harms the legis-
    lation was designed to avert and the appropriateness of the
    mechanism they adopt. See id. at 2133, 2129. The dissent
    chooses to take a purposive approach to this question: what
    were the reasons motivating the historical regulations, and do
    they map well onto the reasons behind the modern law? We
    confess to some skepticism about any test that requires the
    court to divine legislative purpose from anything but the
    words that wound up in the statute. Legislator A may have
    had one goal; Legislator B may have had another; and Legis-
    lator C might have agreed to vote for one bill in exchange for
    a reciprocal vote for Legislator D’s pet project later. That is
    why, as the author of Heller reminded us, “The text is the law,
    and it is the text that must be observed.” ANTONIN SCALIA, A
    MATTER OF INTERPRETATION 22 (1997).
    The best one can say is that if the text of the legislation
    evinces its purpose (perhaps in an introductory Statement of
    Purpose, which many bills contain, or in some other prefatory
    provision), that is a valid source to consult in answering the
    “why” question. When we consult the text of the Act, we find
    the best indication of its purpose in its name: “Protect Illinois
    Communities Act.” See Pub. Act. 102-1116, at § 1 (2023). Cf.
    Johnson v. Robison, 
    415 U.S. 361
    , 377 (1974) (noting that the
    name of a statute can emphasize its purpose). Historical reg-
    ulations show that at least since the Founding there has been
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                         41
    an unbroken tradition of regulating weapons to advance sim-
    ilar purposes.
    Once again, the dissent cannot dispute the existence of this
    enduring American tradition. It tries to escape it, asserting
    that “stop[ping] a mass casualty event,” or perhaps “stopping
    escalating gun violence,” is the purpose of the statute, post at
    71, 74, yet it points to nothing in the Act that supports either
    of these specific characterizations. To be sure, the dissent
    notes that the bill enacted by the City of Naperville recites a
    few of the many mass shootings that have occurred during
    the last decade. See post at 71 n.13. 11 But the bill also expressly
    states that the purpose of the ordinance is to protect public
    health, safety, and welfare. See City of Naperville, Ill., Ordi-
    nance No. 22-099, at 4 (Aug. 16, 2022). The mass-shooting de-
    tails appear to be nothing more than particular examples il-
    lustrating that broader purpose. The state’s attorney also in-
    forms us that the legislation was enacted after the Highland
    Park July 4 massacre. But we have not rested our opinion on
    this point, because in our view it comes too close to the
    means/end scrutiny that Bruen rejected. In any event we do
    not think it is appropriate to rely on extratextual considera-
    tions to answer the “why” question. The issue, whether we
    separate out “how” and “why” or we consider them a unified
    test, is whether the tools the legislature used were limited to
    those that the Second Amendment left for it, after (as the
    Court said in Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 635
    , and Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at
    2133 n.7) the Second Amendment itself performed the
    11 Indeed, the dissent relies solely on the municipal bill’s recitations as
    proof of the state statute’s purpose. It is quite the puzzle to try to square
    this interpretive method with the dissent’s lengthy criticism of our brief
    invocation of the name of the Act. See post at 63-65.
    42                                                   Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    necessary means/end balancing. As we have explained, we
    think that the legislatures involved here did stay within those
    boundaries.
    Harking back to our examination of covered Arms, we
    find the distinction between military and civilian weaponry
    to be useful for Bruen’s second step, too. Both the states and
    the federal government have long contemplated that the mil-
    itary and law enforcement may have access to especially dan-
    gerous weapons, and that civilian ownership of those weap-
    ons may be restricted. 12 Many other weapons remain that are
    more universally available. That is enough to assure us that
    we are not creating some unbounded “military veto” over the
    types of Arms that can be regulated. History and tradition
    leave no doubt that certain weaponry is for the state only:
    weapons such as the grenades, the machineguns, the artillery
    pieces, and the like mentioned in Staples. See 
    511 U.S. at
    611–
    12. (And recall that the laws before us carve out not only the
    military, but police and security forces too, from their cover-
    age.) And, as we now show, the distinction between the two
    uses is one well rooted in our history.
    The following examples suffice to make the point:
    12 We realize that all guns are dangerous when used as intended: a
    gunshot wound may be fatal or life-threatening. The Centers for Disease
    Control and Prevention estimate that 48,830 people died as a result of a
    firearm in 2021. See CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION, Na-
    tional Center for Health Statistics: All Injuries (Sept. 13, 2023),
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm. But the record indicates
    that there are important differences in the lethality of the military-grade
    weapons, as compared with guns that are commonly owned and used for
    self-defense and other lawful purposes.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                          43
    •   In 1746, Boston outlawed the discharging of
    any cannon, gun, or pistol within city limits,
    but it explained that soldiers were still per-
    mitted to discharge weaponry on their train-
    ing days. See Chapter 11—An Act to Prevent
    the Firing of Guns Charged with Shot[t] or
    Ball in the Town of Boston, §§ 1–3, in 3 THE
    ACTS AND RESOLVES OF THE PROVINCE OF THE
    MASSACHUSETTS BAY 1742-1756, at 309 (1878).
    •   Other cities, such as Cleveland, Ohio, imple-
    mented similar ordinances throughout the
    19th century, again exempting military com-
    panies during drills. See Chapter 33—Fire
    Arms, §§ 417–423, in ORDINANCES OF THE
    CITY OF CLEVELAND 136–37 (H.L. Vail & L.M.
    Snyder, eds., 1890).
    •   There are dozens of examples of Bowie knife
    regulations, forbidding or limiting the use of
    these dangerous weapons. Several of those
    featured military exceptions. In 1884, for ex-
    ample, Arkansas outlawed the sale of all
    dirks, Bowie knives, cane-swords, metal
    knuckles, and pistols, except as for use in the
    army or navy of the United States. See Chap-
    ter 53—Carrying Weapons, §§ 1907–1909, in
    A DIGEST OF THE STATUTES OF ARKANSAS 490
    (W.W. Mansfield, ed., 1884).
    •   Several city ordinances in the late 1800s fol-
    lowed suit, restricting the carry of a wide ar-
    ray of dangerous and concealable weapons
    (slingshots, metal knuckles, Bowie knives,
    44                                           Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    daggers, pistols, and clubs), but exempting
    “peace officers” and “conservator[s] of the
    peace.” See Chapter 6—Offenses Against the
    Peace of the City, § 182, in THE REVISED
    ORDINANCES OF PROVO CITY 106–07 (1877);
    Chapter 534—Ordinances of Baltimore,
    § 742A, in THE BALTIMORE CITY CODE 297–98
    (John Prentiss Poe, ed., 1893).
    •   The federal government continued this tra-
    dition when it began passing gun control
    laws. The National Firearms Act of 1934 im-
    posed taxation and registration require-
    ments on all guns, but it exempted transfers
    to the U.S. government, states, territories,
    political subdivisions, and peace officers.
    See 
    Pub. L. No. 73-474, §§ 1-12
    , § 13, 
    48 Stat. 1236
    , 1236-40, 1240 (1934).
    •   Federal restrictions expanded in 1968, when
    sale and delivery of destructive devices (de-
    fined as an “explosive, incendiary, or poison
    gas bomb, grenade, mine, rocket, missile, or
    similar device”) and machineguns were se-
    verely restricted. See Omnibus Crime Con-
    trol and Safe Streets Act of 1968, 
    Pub. L. No. 90-351, § 921
    (a)(4), § 922(b), 
    82 Stat. 197
    , 227,
    230 (1968). Once again, these provisions did
    not apply to items sold to the United States
    or to any individual state. 
    Id.
     § 925(a), 82
    Stat. at 233.
    •   Machineguns were banned by the Firearm
    Owners’ Protection Act of 1986. Since then,
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                            45
    civilian ownership has been capped at pre-
    1986 levels and only military and law en-
    forcement have access to these weapons. See
    
    Pub. L. No. 99-308, § 102
    (9), 
    100 Stat. 449
    , 453
    (1986).
    In short, there is a long tradition, unchanged from the time
    when the Second Amendment was added to the Constitution,
    supporting a distinction between weapons and accessories
    designed for military or law-enforcement use, and weapons
    designed for personal use. The legislation now before us re-
    spects and relies on that distinction.
    IV.    Concluding Observations
    We conclude with a few remarks about several additional
    issues in some of these cases that do not require immediate
    attention, and a reminder about the limits on our ruling.
    First, we briefly comment on Herrera’s challenge to the
    constitutionality of the registration requirement that imple-
    ments the grandfather exemption. He regards it as a burden
    on his Second Amendment rights, and he worries that it may
    in the future lead to confiscatory acts on the part of the state.
    If we are correct in our prediction that the state will prevail in
    its defense of the Act against the Second Amendment argu-
    ments, then the registration requirement will be valid as long
    as it can withstand rational basis review. At this juncture, we
    see nothing particularly onerous about it, though as with eve-
    rything we have said, this is a preliminary assessment. Her-
    rera has until the end of 2023 to file the necessary forms, and
    if he does so, he may retain all of the covered weapons he al-
    ready owns; the Act will prohibit only his acquisition of addi-
    tional assault weapons or high-capacity feeding devices. For
    46                                                  Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    its own reasons, the dissent agrees with us that the registra-
    tion requirement should not be enjoined. See post at 76.
    Second, in this court none of the parties has developed any
    coherent argument that would distinguish restrictions on
    possession, on the one hand, from restrictions on sale or man-
    ufacture, on the other. One of the parties in Bevis is a gun
    store, but the implications of that have yet to be addressed.
    We thus have no comment on it.
    Finally, we have no need to decide whether an alleged Sec-
    ond Amendment violation gives rise to a presumption of ir-
    reparable harm, and if so, whether any such presumption is
    rebuttable or ironclad. Given our decision that the plaintiffs
    have not shown that they have a strong likelihood of success
    on the merits, we think it best to save this point for another
    day. We also have no comment on the other two parts of the
    Winter inquiry: where the balance of equities lies, and what
    the public interest dictates. 13
    We close with an important reminder. Nothing that we
    have said here indicates that any state or municipality must
    enact restrictions on the ownership of assault weapons or
    high-capacity magazines. Unless preemptive federal legisla-
    tion requires otherwise, this is an issue for the political pro-
    cess in each jurisdiction. The people of some states may find
    13 The governmental parties devoted considerable attention in their
    briefs to the horrors of the mass shootings that have occurred with dis-
    tressing regularity throughout the country. Illinois reports that the mass
    shooting in the town of Highland Park on July 4, 2022, in which seven
    people were killed and another 48 were injured, inspired the Act. We have
    not relied on this point, however, because, as we have mentioned, it ap-
    pears to depend on the type of means/end analysis that Bruen disap-
    proved.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           47
    the arguments in favor of a lack of restrictions to be persua-
    sive; the people of other states may prefer tighter restrictions.
    As long as those restrictions do not infringe on the constitu-
    tionally protected right to keep and bear the Arms covered by
    the Second Amendment, either choice is permissible. In the
    cases now before us, however, the plaintiffs have not shown a
    likelihood of success on the merits, based on the fact that mil-
    itary weapons lie outside the class of Arms to which the indi-
    vidual right applies.
    In Nos. 23-1353 and 23-1793, we AFFIRM the district
    courts’ orders denying preliminary injunctive relief. In Nos.
    23-1825, 23-1826, 23-1827, and 23-1828, we VACATE the dis-
    trict court’s order granting preliminary injunctive relief. We
    also confirm that the stay we issued in these appeals will re-
    main in effect until our mandate issues.
    SO ORDERED.
    48                                                                                                 Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    APPENDIX
    Jurisdiction         Actions Prohibited                 Firearms Covered                 Magazines Covered
    •   Semiautomatic rifles that
    have one or more assault
    •   Manufacture                        weapon-like modifications
    •   Delivery                       •   Semiautomatic pistols that
    •   Sale                               have one or more assault
    weapon-like modifications      •   Rifles—over 10 rounds
    •   Purchase
    Illinois                                        •   Semiautomatic shotguns        •   Handguns—over 15
    •   Possession (pre-existing           with a revolving cylinder         rounds
    possession and private             or that have one or more
    post-Act use are permissi-         assault weapon-like modi-
    ble if registration require-       fications
    ments are met)
    •   Various assault weapons
    listed by name
    •   Semiautomatic rifles that
    can accept more than 10
    rounds or that have one or
    more assault weapon-like
    modifications
    Naperville     •   Commercial sale                                                              N/A
    •   Devices that accelerate the
    rate of fire of a semiauto-
    matic rifle
    •   Various assault weapons
    listed by name
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                                                               49
    •   Semiautomatic rifles that
    have one or more assault
    weapon-like modifications
    •   Manufacture
    •   Semiautomatic pistols that
    •   Sale
    have one or more assault
    •   Offer or display for sale       weapon-like modifications
    •   Give                       •   Semiautomatic shotguns
    with a revolving cylinder
    Cook County   •   Lend                                                        •   Magazines over 10 rounds
    or that have or one more
    •   Transfer of ownership          assault rifle-like modifica-
    tions
    •   Acquire
    •   Combination kits from
    •   Carry
    which an assault weapon
    •   Possession                     can be assembled
    •   Various assault weapons
    listed by name
    50                                                                                    Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    •   Semiautomatic rifles with
    the ability to accept a de-
    tachable magazine and that
    have one or more assault
    weapon-like modifications
    •   Semiautomatic rifles that
    have a fixed magazine with
    the capacity to accept more
    •   Import                      than 10 rounds
    •   Sale                    •   Devices that accelerate the
    rate of fire of a semiauto-    •   Handguns—over 15
    Chicago   •   Manufacture
    matic rifle                        rounds
    •   Transfer of ownership
    •   Shotguns that have one or
    •   Possession                  more assault weapon-like
    modifications
    •   Semiautomatic handguns
    that have one or more as-
    sault weapon-like modifi-
    cations
    •   Various assault weapons
    listed by name
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                             51
    BRENNAN, Circuit Judge, dissenting. The Second Amend-
    ment “right of the people to keep and bear Arms” is not a sec-
    ond-class right. Yet the State of Illinois and several Illinois mu-
    nicipalities have categorically banned law-abiding citizens
    from keeping and bearing a sweeping range of firearms and
    magazines. In a remarkable conclusion, the majority opinion
    decides that these firearms are not “Arms” under the Second
    Amendment. Because the banned firearms and magazines
    warrant constitutional protection, and the government parties
    have failed to meet their burden to show that their bans are
    part of the history and tradition of firearms regulation, pre-
    liminary injunctions are justified against enforcement of the
    challenged laws. I respectfully dissent.
    I
    The Protect Illinois Communities Act, Pub. Act 102-1116,
    challenged in each case before us, dramatically redefines the
    legality of firearms and magazines in Illinois. It goes far be-
    yond the prohibition of “assault rifles.” The Act eliminates the
    ownership, possession, and use for self-defense of many of
    the most commonly-owned semiautomatic handguns, shot-
    guns, rifles, and magazines. Exceptions to the Act are narrow.
    Specifically, the Act covers firearms, magazines, and an
    endorsement process for registration. The Act bans the man-
    ufacture, delivery, sale, import, and purchase of a vast array
    of weapons, 720 ILL. COMP. STAT. §§ 5/24-1(a)(16), 75/24-1.9(a),
    5/24-1.10(a)–(b), prohibiting them by their features, by their
    functions, and by name. The Act bans semiautomatic rifles
    with detachable magazines and one additional qualifying at-
    tachment, such as a pistol grip or a flash suppressor. Id. § 5/24-
    1.9(a)(1)(A). “[A]ll AR type[]” rifles are banned, including 43
    named variants, such as the AR-15. The Act further prohibits
    52                                              Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    “copies, duplicates, variants, or altered facsimiles with the ca-
    pability of any such weapon.” Id. § 5/24-1.9(a)(1)(J)(ii). It also
    bans almost 100 more rifles by name. Id. § 5/24-1.9(a)(1)(J).
    The Act restricts various other firearms as well. For exam-
    ple, a law-abiding citizen in Illinois can no longer purchase
    semiautomatic pistols that have “a fixed magazine with the
    capacity to accept more than 15 rounds,” regardless of any
    attachments. Id. § 5/24-1.9(a)(1)(D). The same goes for a semi-
    automatic shotgun with a fixed magazine holding more than
    five shells. Id. § 5/24-1.9(a)(1)(F)(v). The list of restricted weap-
    ons includes nearly all detachable magazines holding more
    than 10 rounds of ammunition for long guns and 15 rounds
    of ammunition for handguns. Id. § 5/24-1.10(a)(1)–(2). Many
    handguns, the “quintessential self-defense weapon” for the
    American people, District of Columbia v. Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    ,
    629 (2008), come standard with magazines carrying more than
    15 rounds. As with semiautomatic rifles, after banning pistols
    by their features, the Act bans “[a]ll AR type[] pistols” and
    approximately 40 semiautomatic pistols by name. 720 ILL.
    COMP. STAT. § 5/24-1.9(a)(1)(K).
    Three municipal laws are also challenged, which are as or
    more restrictive than the Act. The City of Naperville ordi-
    nance is similar to the Act in most respects; both are
    challenged in Bevis. The Cook County and City of Chicago or-
    dinances, challenged along with the Act in Herrera, are even
    broader. Cook County bans possession of “assault weapons,”
    COOK COUNTY, ILL. CODE § 54-211 and § 54-212, which in-
    cludes semiautomatic pistols with the capacity to accept a de-
    tachable magazine and contain a qualifying attachment (such
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                        53
    as a muzzle brake). The City of Chicago ordinance is similar.
    See CHI. MUN. CODE §§ 8-20-010, 8-20-075, 8-20-085. 1
    II
    The parties dispute whether the state, county, and city
    bans respect the constitutional right to keep and bear arms. In
    New York State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n, Inc. v. Bruen, 
    142 S. Ct. 2111 (2022)
    , the Supreme Court set forth the framework for ad-
    dressing those disputes. Rejecting means-end scrutiny, the
    Court held: “When the Second Amendment’s plain text
    1 The majority opinion uses the phrase “assault weapon” to simplify
    the covered arms. The appendix to the majority opinion uses a variety of
    terms to summarize the types of arms the four challenged laws categori-
    cally ban.
    Still, the description in the appendix of the Act’s ban is underinclusive
    in some ways. The Act bans semiautomatic rifles with fixed magazines
    over 10 rounds (unless it fires .22 rimfire and is loaded with a tubular
    mechanism). ILL. COMP. STAT. § 5/24-1.9(a)(1)(B). The appendix uses the
    phrase “[s]emiautomatic pistols that have one or more assault weapon-
    like modifications,” most likely a reference to ILL. COMP. STAT. § 5/24-
    1.9(a)(1)(C). More precisely, the Act also bans semiautomatic pistols with
    fixed magazines over 15 rounds. Id. § 5/24-1.9(a)(1)(D). Not included in
    the appendix are bump stocks and binary triggers (a device enabling the
    firing of two-rounds per trigger pull), which are both prohibited by the
    Act. Id. § 5/24-1(a)(14).
    The Cook County ordinance mirrors the Act’s prohibitions, although
    it is stricter than the Act in that it bans semi-automatic handguns with
    fixed magazines over 10 rounds (as opposed to 15 rounds under the Act).
    COOK COUNTY, ILL. CODE § 54-211(2).
    The City of Chicago ordinance is underinclusive in its description of
    the magazines covered. The ordinance prohibits any magazine holding
    greater than 15 rounds, encompassing magazines for all types of firearms
    (except for attached devices that only accept and operate with .22 rimfire
    ammunition), not just handguns. CHI. MUN. CODE § 8-20-010.
    54                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    covers an individual’s conduct, the Constitution presump-
    tively protects that conduct. The government must then jus-
    tify its regulation by demonstrating that it is consistent with
    the Nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation.” Bruen,
    142 S. Ct. at 2129–30.
    The Second Amendment states in part, “the right of the
    people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” U.S.
    CONST. amend. II. The amendment presents several condi-
    tions for plain text coverage, which raise questions including:
    •   Is the regulated population a covered “peo-
    ple?” See, e.g., Range v. Att’y Gen. United
    States, 
    69 F.4th 96
    , 101–03 (3d Cir. 2023) (en
    banc); United States v. Sitladeen, 
    64 F.4th 978
    ,
    983 (8th Cir. 2023); and
    •   Is the conduct regulated “keep[ing]” or
    “bear[ing]” arms? See, e.g., Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    582–92.
    We consider another question: Are the instruments regu-
    lated “Arms”?
    “Arms” in the Second Amendment is a broad term that
    “covers modern instruments that facilitate armed self-de-
    fense.” Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at 2132. The term “extends, prima fa-
    cie, to all instruments that constitute bearable arms, even
    those that were not in existence at the time of the founding.”
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 582
    . When the plain text of the Second
    Amendment covers an individual’s conduct, then the Consti-
    tution presumptively protects the conduct. Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at
    2129–30. That presumptive protection is of all bearable instru-
    ments that facilitate armed self-defense, even those not in ex-
    istence at the time of the Founding. Id. at 2132, 2143 (citing
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                          55
    Caetano v. Massachusetts, 
    577 U.S. 411
    , 411–412 (2016) (per cu-
    riam), and Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 627
    ). 2
    As an initial matter, magazines—ammunition feeding de-
    vices without which semiautomatic firearms cannot operate
    as intended—are “Arms.” Such devices are required as part of
    the firing process. This court has recognized that corollaries
    to firearms fall within Second Amendment protection. See
    Wilson v. Cook County, 
    937 F.3d 1028
    , 1032 (7th Cir. 2019)
    (quoting Ezell v. City of Chicago, 
    651 F.3d 684
    , 708 (7th Cir.
    2011)). Further, the Act’s ban on magazines holding more
    than ten rounds for rifles and more than fifteen rounds for
    handguns effectively bans firearms that come standard with
    magazines over the limit.
    As for the broader definition of “Arms,” that term should
    be read as “Arms”—not “Arms in common use at the time.”
    In Heller, the Supreme Court recognized a “historical tradition
    of prohibiting the carrying of ‘dangerous and unusual weap-
    ons,’” 
    554 U.S. at 627
    , which may be regulated—a point it re-
    peated in Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at 2143.
    The Court “did not say that dangerous and unusual weap-
    ons are not arms.” Teter v. Lopez, 
    76 F.4th 938
    , 950 (9th Cir.
    2023) (emphasis in original) (ruling that Hawaii statute ban-
    ning butterfly knives violated Second Amendment). To be
    2 When the Supreme Court issued Bruen, it vacated several federal ap-
    pellate decisions upholding gun controls laws, remanding them for recon-
    sideration. Two of them—Duncan v. Bonta, 
    19 F.4th 1087
     (9th Cir. 2021),
    and Ass’n of N.J. Rifle & Pistol Clubs Inc. v. Att’y Gen. N.J., 
    974 F.3d 237
     (3d
    Cir. 2020)—concerned magazine limits of 10 rounds, and Bianchi v. Frosh,
    
    858 F. App’x 645
     (4th Cir. 2021) (per curiam) (unpublished), upheld Mar-
    yland’s “assault weapons” ban.
    56                                                       Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    sure, this does not mean that the Second Amendment bars
    governments from regulating weapons long held improper
    for civilian use. This reading of Bruen permits the govern-
    ment, for example, to preclude civilian ownership of military
    weaponry when the history and tradition of weapons regula-
    tion so dictates. As other examples, the government may pro-
    hibit sawn-off rifles and shotguns, which properly qualify as
    dangerous and unusual firearms as they are not ordinarily
    used by law-abiding citizens. See Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 625
     (“[T]he
    Second Amendment does not protect those weapons not typ-
    ically possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes,
    such as short-barreled shotguns.”). But that distinction does
    not determine whether a weapon is an “Arm.”
    The government parties limit the Second Amendment
    right by importing the phrase “in common use” to assess
    whether firearms are “Arms.” But their reading improperly
    restricts the constitutional right. The banned firearms propel
    bullets by explosive force from gunpowder, yet the govern-
    ment parties ask us to conclude that these rifles and pistols
    are not “Arms.” As one amicus curiae submitted, “in common
    use” is a sufficient condition for finding arms protected under
    the history and tradition test in Bruen, not a necessary condi-
    tion to find them “Arms.” 3 The nature of an object does not
    change based on its popularity, but the regulation of that ob-
    ject can.
    The government parties also incorrectly attempt to place a
    burden on the plaintiffs to show that the plain text of “Arms”
    includes the banned firearms. Bruen does not say that. In-
    stead, Bruen states that when the Second Amendment’s text
    3 See D.E. 99, Brief for Amici Curiae Idaho, et al., at 6.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                              57
    covers an individual’s conduct, the Constitution presump-
    tively protects it. 142 S. Ct. at 2126, 2129–30. It is undisputed
    that the government then bears the burden of proof under
    Bruen’s history and tradition framework.
    Whether a firearm is “in common use” is asked as part of
    the history and tradition analysis. At least two reasons sup-
    port this reading. First, the “in common use” test in Bruen is
    drawn from the “historical tradition” of restrictions on “dan-
    gerous and unusual weapons.” Id. at 2143. The test is not
    drawn from a historical understanding of what an “Arm” is.
    Id. at 2132. Second, if a weapon is an “Arm,” it is only prima
    facie protected by the Second Amendment. Bruen, 142 S. Ct.
    at 2132 (quoting Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 582
    ); see Teter, 76 F.4th at
    949–50 (placing “in common use” test in history and tradition
    test of Bruen).
    The limitation of the Second Amendment right is ad-
    dressed in Bruen’s history and tradition test. This requires the
    government to identify well-established and representative
    historical analogues to show that the modern regulation is
    consistent with a historical tradition of firearms regulation.
    Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at 2133. In performing this analogical inquiry,
    it is critical to fly at the right level of generality. Id. (“[A]na-
    logical reasoning under the Second Amendment is neither a
    regulatory straightjacket nor a regulatory blank check.”); see
    J. HARVIE WILKINSON, COSMIC CONSTITUTIONAL THEORY 44
    (2012). Fly too high, and we risk any historical firearms regu-
    lation becoming an analogue. Under Bruen, courts must not
    “uphold every modern law that remotely resembles a histor-
    ical analogue.” Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at 2133. (quoting Drummond
    v. Robinson, 
    9 F.4th 217
    , 226 (3d Cir. 2021)). Fly too low, and
    we risk myopia—nitpicking differences because a historical
    58                                             Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    regulation is not a “dead ringer.” 
    Id.
     We are looking for “a
    well-established and representative historical analogue, not a
    historical twin.” 
    Id.
    Before reviewing the approach to decide whether a regu-
    lation is an analogical fit, it helps to address what history and
    tradition refer to here. “History” means that analogous laws
    must be “longstanding” and from the relevant “timeframe.”
    Id. at 2131, 2133 (citing Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 626
    ). “History” helps
    establish the public meaning of the Constitution as “under-
    stood ... when the people adopted” it. 
    Id.
     (citing Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    634–35). The Court tells us that only two historical
    timeframes are relevant to the public understanding of the
    Second Amendment—the adoption of the Second Amend-
    ment in 1791 and the ratification of the Fourteenth Amend-
    ment in 1868. Id. at 2136. Laws enacted after the “end of the
    19th century” must be given little weight. Id. at 2136–37
    (cleaned up). “Tradition” means that the comparison must be
    to laws with wide acceptance in American society. Id. at 2136.
    Laws that enjoyed “widespread” and “unchallenged” sup-
    port form part of our tradition. Id. at 2137.
    In Bruen, the Court reaffirmed that “individual self-de-
    fense is ‘the central component’ of the Second Amendment
    right,” id. at 2133 (citing McDonald, 
    561 U.S. at 767
     (quoting
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 599
    )), and expressly identified two ques-
    tions to assess the analogical strength of a historical regula-
    tion: “how and why the regulations burden a law-abiding cit-
    izen’s right to armed self-defense.” Id. at 2133. Put another
    way, how does the regulation limit the Second Amendment
    right, and why does it do so?
    How. How a historical regulation addressed a particular
    problem, or whether it did at all, matters. “[I]f earlier
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                             59
    generations addressed the societal problem, but did so
    through materially different means, that also could be evi-
    dence that a modern regulation is unconstitutional.” Id. at
    2131. Whether a given regulation was ever enforced, and to
    what extent, can be relevant here as well. Id. at 2149.
    Courts must also evaluate how historical “regulations bur-
    den a law-abiding citizen’s right to armed self-defense.” Id. at
    2133. Modern regulations that impose a “comparable burden
    on the right of armed self-defense” are more likely to be up-
    held. Id.
    In assessing these comparable burdens, we consider the
    breadth of the ban and the weapon banned. For the breadth
    of the ban, the more expansive the limitation, the greater the
    burden on the Second Amendment right, which necessarily
    requires a close analogical fit. For the weapon banned, the
    burden on the right to keep and bear arms necessarily corre-
    lates with whether the prohibited weapon is “in common use
    at the time” of regulation. Id. at 2128, 2134, 2143. So, it is nat-
    ural that categorical bans of weapons in common use will
    require an even stronger analogical fit with historical regula-
    tions. See id. at 2143–44 (rejecting the analogical value of
    alleged colonial era categorical bans on “dangerous and unu-
    sual” weapons because handguns are “unquestionably in
    common use today”).
    Why. Why a historical regulation addressed a particular
    problem, or whether it did at all, is also key to evaluating its
    analogical value. In considering whether a historical regula-
    tion is an analogical fit, courts are to address whether the
    modern regulation and proposed historical analogue have
    comparable justifications for burdening the right to bear
    arms. Id. at 2133. If the reasons motivating the historical and
    60                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    modern regulations differ, there is no analogue. See id. at 2140,
    2144. Beyond doubt, this inquiry should not allow a return to
    interest balancing. See id. at 2131 (explaining that the Second
    Amendment itself “is the very product of an interest balancing
    by the people” (quoting Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 635
    )). Rather, the
    state’s current rationale for arms regulation only matters in-
    sofar as a historical regulation was motivated by similar rea-
    sons. If not, the analogy fails. See id. at 2144 (discussing the
    context of the colonial New Jersey restrictions, in which land
    disputes between planters and the colony’s proprietors
    caused planters to carry pistols).
    The government can only defend a regulation by proving
    it is consistent with this country’s history and tradition. See
    Atkinson v. Garland, 
    70 F.4th 1018
    , 1020–21 (7th Cir. 2023).
    Whether that history and tradition allows regulating firearms
    in sensitive places, for the mentally ill, and for felons, is cur-
    rently under debate. See, e.g., United States v. Rahimi, 
    61 F. 4th 443
    , 460–61 (5th Cir. 2023) (ruling that federal statute prohib-
    iting possession of firearm by individual subject to domestic
    violence restraining order violates Second Amendment as in-
    consistent with historical tradition), cert. granted 
    143 S. Ct. 2688
    .
    This understanding of the Bruen framework is different
    from that of my colleagues. First, the majority opinion
    acknowledges Bruen’s “in common use” language but criti-
    cizes it as spawning unworkable circularity issues: If the Sec-
    ond Amendment protects firearms in common use, then that
    right would turn on how quickly a state enacts regulations. If
    a firearm is outlawed quickly following its introduction to the
    market, then it has no chance of gaining common use and en-
    joys only limited or no Second Amendment protection. This
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           61
    cannot be how the Second Amendment functions, the argu-
    ment goes, as the speed of regulation should not bear on an
    arm’s constitutionality.
    This circularity concern is far less pressing when the “in
    common use” language is properly situated. Because that
    consideration plays into the history and tradition analysis—
    and not the scope of the Second Amendment’s text—it is not
    an “on-off” switch for constitutional protection. Just because
    a weapon is not in common use does not mean it falls outside
    the text of the Second Amendment; and just because a
    weapon is in common use does not necessarily mean a gov-
    ernment is barred from regulating it. Proper inquiry requires
    full examination of the government’s evidence and historical
    analogues, keeping in mind that bans of weapons “in com-
    mon use” are constitutionally suspect.
    The Supreme Court certainly was not worried about cir-
    cularity. In Bruen, the Court explicitly linked the Second
    Amendment analysis to “in common use.” See 142 S. Ct. at
    2128 (quoting Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 629
    ) (explaining that “the Sec-
    ond Amendment protects only the carrying of weapons that
    are those ‘in common use at the time,’ as opposed to those that
    ‘are highly unusual in society at large’”). The Court reasoned
    that even if handguns were once “dangerous and unusual,”
    such firearms “are unquestionably in common use today”
    and therefore receive robust Second Amendment protection.
    Id. at 2143. In Caetano, the Court addressed Second Amend-
    ment protections for a new electronic weapon. So many were
    in circulation (200,000 stun guns, far fewer than the approxi-
    mately 25 million AR rifles) that the electronic weapon was
    deemed “commonly possessed by law-abiding citizens for
    lawful purposes … .” 577 U.S. at 420. We are not free to ignore
    62                                                     Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    the Court’s instruction as to the role of “in common use” in
    the Second Amendment analysis. 4
    Next, my colleagues disagree with my approach to Bruen’s
    “why” question, raising the specter of purposivism. The ma-
    jority opinion urges respect for the text of a statute alone,
    which I share. Indeed, a fair reading of a statute always “re-
    quires an ability to comprehend the purpose of the text, which
    is a vital part of its context.” See ANTONIN SCALIA & BRYAN A.
    GARNER, READING LAW: THE INTERPRETATION OF LEGAL TEXTS
    33 (2012); see also John O. McGinnis, The Contextual Textualism
    of Justice Alito, 14 HARV. J. L. & PUB. POL’Y PER CURIAM, at 2
    (2023) (describing Justice Alito’s use of context in interpreta-
    tion). This is certainly a different task than interpreting a stat-
    ute by reference to the intent of its drafters, which I agree is
    an inappropriate job for judges.
    Still, Bruen requires us to consider the historical context
    giving rise to the statute (the “why”). Bruen looks at history
    and tradition to determine “the content of the preexisting le-
    gal right to bear arms.” Randy E. Barnett & Lawrence B. So-
    lum, Originalism After Dobbs, Bruen, and Kennedy, 118 NW.
    U. L. REV. 433, 469 (2023). And Bruen’s history and tradition
    approach is a different endeavor than statutory interpreta-
    tion.
    Often a statute takes center stage for a purpose other than
    to discern the scope of its legal rule, even when determining
    whether it violates a constitutional right. See Vill. of Arlington
    4 The circularity argument also is not new. See Friedman v. City of High-
    land Park, 
    784 F.3d 406
     (7th Cir. 2015). As Judge Manion explained in dis-
    sent, circularity concerns deal in the hypothetical more than the actual. 
    Id.
    at 416 n.5.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                            63
    Heights v. Metro. Hous. Dev. Corp., 
    429 U.S. 252
    , 270 (1977)
    (considering whether a discriminatory purpose was a moti-
    vating factor in a city’s zoning rules). For example, in Bruen
    the Court considered Henry VIII’s “displeasure with hand-
    guns” due to his concern that they would “threaten[] English-
    men’s proficiency with the longbow,” which led to
    Parliament’s passage of handgun restrictions. 142 S. Ct. at
    2140. East New Jersey prohibited the concealed carry of
    pocket pistols in response to “‘strife and excitement’ between
    planters and the Colony’s proprietors ‘respecting titles to the
    soil.’” Id. at 2143–44. And Heller discusses the “public-safety
    reasons” behind several Colonial-era individual-arms-bear-
    ing statutes. Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 601
    .
    When looking to the text in its “why” analysis, the major-
    ity opinion relies on the Act’s title, Protect Illinois Communi-
    ties Act. Set aside for the moment that “for interpretive pur-
    poses,” courts should only rely on titles to “shed light on
    some ambiguous word or phrase” in the text. See Trainmen v.
    Baltimore & Ohio R. Co., 
    331 U.S. 519
    , 529 (1947). Titles and sec-
    tion headings have a short history in the Anglo-American in-
    terpretive tradition—legislatures did not always include the
    title while debating the act. See SCALIA & GARNER at 221. If
    there is serious doubt as to whether those titles and headings
    received a fair shake in the legislative process, relying on
    them would make little sense. One influential treatise im-
    plores judges to check a state’s constitution for provisions that
    vouchsafe interpretive usefulness on a statutory title. See id. at
    224.
    As it turns out, the title of the Protect Illinois Communities
    Act has little interpretive utility. The Illinois Constitution has
    a provision grounding the title in the legislative process, but
    64                                              Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    there is serious doubt whether the legislature obeyed it here.
    The so-called three-readings clause states: “A bill shall be read
    by title on three different days in each house.” ILL. CONST. art.
    IV, § 8(d). Reading rules exist precisely to ensure “that each
    House knows what it is passing and passes what it wants.”
    Schwegmann Bros. v. Calvert Distillers Corp., 
    341 U.S. 384
    , 396
    (1951) (Jackson, J., concurring) (explaining that the federal
    three-readings rule helps draw a line where debate ends and
    drafting begins).
    Consider the procedural path of the Act, during which the
    Illinois legislature may very well have ignored the three-read-
    ings rule. See Caulkins v. Pritzker, No. 129453, 
    2023 WL 5156850
    , at *17 (Ill. Aug. 11, 2023) (White, J., dissenting). A
    group of firearms owners challenged the Act in Illinois state
    court, arguing it violated several provisions of the Illinois
    Constitution. Id. at *1. The three-readings clause is one of
    these provisions, and the Supreme Court of Illinois rejected
    that claim only because the plaintiffs failed to cross-appeal it,
    a jurisdictional error warranting dismissal. Id. This legislation
    began in the Illinois House with the title, “an Act concerning
    regulation,” and its synopsis described changes to the state’s
    insurance code. Id. at *17 (White, J., dissenting). The House
    read it three times by this title, then sent it to the Illinois Sen-
    ate. Id. The Senate read it twice before the Senate adopted an
    amendment that “completely stripped the insurance provi-
    sions[,] … replaced them with the ‘Protect Illinois Communi-
    ties Act[,]’” and added the new bill’s popular title. Id. The day
    the legislation became the “Protect Illinois Communities Act,”
    the Senate read it for the first time under the new title and
    passed it. Id. The Act was returned to the House the day after
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                      65
    that and passed without a reading. Id. The Illinois Governor
    signed it later that day. Id. 5
    Though the Act’s possible three-readings problem bears
    on neither the Second Amendment question nor the Act’s le-
    gitimacy, it remains a good reason to be skeptical of the inter-
    pretive value of language extrinsic to the operative text. In-
    stead, I focus on permissible indicators of meaning.
    III
    Turning to this interlocutory appeal, the plaintiffs make a
    facial challenge to the Act and ordinances at the preliminary
    injunction stage. According to the Supreme Court in Nken v.
    Holder, 
    556 U.S. 418
    , 434 (2009), the two most important con-
    siderations at this stage are likelihood of success on the merits
    and irreparable harm. For the reasons explained below, plain-
    tiffs have satisfied both considerations.
    A
    As for likelihood of success on the merits, the firearms and
    magazines banned by the Act and ordinances are “Arms” un-
    der the plain text of the Second Amendment. These firearms
    and magazines are therefore presumptively protected. 6 The
    government parties embrace a contrasting, very narrow view
    of the scope of the Second Amendment. They would limit this
    constitutional right to the facts in Heller and Bruen. Yet, as
    5 The Illinois Supreme Court decided that the Act does not violate cer-
    tain provisions of that state’s constitution. Caulkins, 
    2023 WL 5156850
    , at
    *4–6. The court also ruled that a challenge based on the federal Second
    Amendment had been waived. Id. at *6.
    6 Debates about grenades or rocket launchers are off subject. Some
    military weaponry is covered by federal statute, see 18 U.S.C. ch. 44, which
    is not challenged here.
    66                                                Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    examples, the First and Fourth Amendments would surely
    not be read in such a cramped manner.
    Under Bruen’s history and tradition test, the government
    parties bear the burden to show that the banned arms are not
    in common use—or in other words, are not dangerous and
    unusual—and to identify historical analogues. As described
    above, Bruen reviewed Heller and set forth its test to deter-
    mine if regulations satisfied the “how” and “why” test. Bruen,
    142 S. Ct. at 2128 (citing Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    626–34).
    The Act and ordinances here do not fall within a “histori-
    cal tradition of prohibiting the carrying of ‘dangerous and un-
    usual weapons.’” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 627
    ; see Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at
    2143. The banned arms are “in common use,” including for
    self-defense, hunting, and sporting pursuits. Each side
    chooses its metric—regulators divide the banned guns by the
    total number of firearms, and gun owners use gross numbers
    of the banned guns and magazines. Under either measure, the
    banned weapons and magazines meet the definition of “com-
    mon”: “the quality of being public or generally used.” BRYAN
    GARNER, GARNER’S DICTIONARY OF LEGAL USAGE 179 (Oxford,
    3d ed. 2011). More than 24 million AR rifles are estimated to
    be in circulation in this country. 7 Magazines number far more:
    in 2020 it was estimated that approximately 160 million pistol
    and rifle magazines with a capacity of 11 rounds or more were
    in U.S. consumer possession from 1990–2018. 8
    7 Commonly Owned: NSSF Announces over 24 Million MSRs in Circula-
    tion,   NAT’L    SHOOTING       SPORTS     FOUND.    (July 20, 2022),
    https://www.nssf.org/articles/commonly-owned-nssf-announces-over-
    24-million-msrs-in-circulation/ [https://perma.cc/2LX6-UN3B].
    8 Firearm Production in the United States, NAT’L SHOOTING SPORTS
    FOUND. 7 (2020), https://www.nssf.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/IIR-
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                            67
    Federal courts have recognized that the AR-15 rifle is com-
    mon. In Staples v. United States, 
    511 U.S. 600
     (1994), the Su-
    preme Court offered comments in dicta stating how common
    AR-15s were at that time in this country. That case, which did
    not address the Second Amendment, turned on the question
    of mens rea, and the Court decided that to convict a person of
    possession of an unregistered machinegun, the government
    must prove the defendant knew that it would fire automati-
    cally. 
    Id. at 619
    . In Staples, the Court contrasted the semiauto-
    matic AR-15 with the automatic M16. 
    Id.
     at 602 n.1, 603.
    Acknowledging “a long tradition of widespread lawful gun
    ownership by private individuals in this country,” the Court
    stated, “[e]ven dangerous items can, in some cases, be so com-
    monplace and generally available that we would not consider
    them to alert individuals to the likelihood of strict regula-
    tion.” 
    Id.
     at 610–11. Staples contrasted ordinary firearms such
    as the AR-15 in that case with “machineguns, sawed-off shot-
    guns, and artillery pieces,” stating “guns falling outside those
    categories traditionally have been widely accepted as lawful
    possessions.” 
    Id. at 612
    .
    Albeit pre-Bruen, two federal appellate courts also con-
    cluded that AR platform rifles are common. N.Y. State Rifle &
    Pistol Ass’n, Inc. v. Cuomo, 
    804 F.3d 242
    , 255 (2d Cir. 2015)
    (“Even accepting the most conservative estimates cited by the
    parties and by amici, the assault weapons and large-capacity
    magazines at issue are ‘in common use’ as that term was used
    in Heller.”); Heller v. District of Columbia, 
    670 F.3d 1244
    , 1261
    (D.C. Cir. 2011) (“We think it clear enough in the record that
    semi-automatic rifles and magazines holding more than ten
    2020-Firearms-Production-v14.pdf [https://perma.cc/3WK8-TVAV] (sum
    of pistol and rifle magazines with 11 or more rounds).
    68                                                   Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    rounds are indeed in ‘common use,’ … .”). The firearms
    banned by the Act and ordinances here have achieved com-
    mon use in the United States. They are not unusual.
    As for magazines, Heller recognizes that ammunition feed-
    ing devices may store rounds in a way that the ammunition
    can be used immediately. 
    554 U.S. at 630
    . The Act and ordi-
    nances limit the number of rounds a magazine may contain to
    10 and 15. Nothing in the record supports these arbitrary lim-
    its. “Large”- or “high”-capacity magazine is a relative term,
    as pistols may ship with magazine sizes ranging from 5 to 20
    rounds, and common self-loading rifles have a standard mag-
    azine capacity of between 20 and 30 rounds. 9 The numbers
    chosen in the Act and ordinances do not track the gun market
    and are not “in common use.”
    Even if AR platform rifles were unusual, they are not more
    dangerous than handguns. (Recall the test is “dangerous and
    unusual.” (emphasis added). See 
    id. at 627
    ; Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at
    2143.) The semiautomatic mechanism in an AR-15 rifle is, in
    all material respects, the same as in a semiautomatic handgun.
    That mechanism is gas powered, and the impact of the pin
    firing the bullet pushes back the lock mechanism, ejects the
    9 David B. Kopel, The History of Firearm Magazines and Magazine Prohi-
    bitions, 78 ALB. L. REV. 849, 874 (2015) (“It is indisputable in the modern
    United States that magazines of up to thirty rounds for rifles and up to
    twenty rounds for handguns are standard equipment for many popular
    firearms.”); id. at 859 (“The most popular rifle in American history is the
    AR-15 platform, a semiautomatic rifle with standard magazines of twenty
    or thirty rounds.”). Springfield, for example, ships a small handgun with
    a 5-round magazine. See XD-S Mod.2 OSP 3.3” Single Stack .45 ACP Hand-
    gun,     SPRINGFIELD      ARMORY     (2023),     https://www.springfield-ar-
    mory.com/xd-series-handguns/xd-s-mod-2-osp-handguns/xd-s-mod-2-
    osp-3-3-single-stack-45-acp-handgun [https://perma.cc/64NQ-KRWM].
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                          69
    old shell, and loads the new round from the magazine. If
    Bruen and Heller provide that semiautomatic handguns do not
    fail under the “dangerous” prong, the mechanism in the AR-
    15 must survive scrutiny. Indeed, a handgun could be viewed
    as more dangerous than an AR-15 rifle because the handgun
    is less accurate and more concealable. 10
    AR-15s are not more dangerous because of the projectile
    used. The regulations challenged here do not speak to the
    type of round employed, but to the capacity of the magazines
    and the rate of fire. In this respect, an AR-15 and a semiauto-
    matic handgun are very similar. Controlling for the same cal-
    iber of round, the difference between a Glock semiautomatic
    pistol and an AR-15 is just the stock and barrel length. Their
    rate of fire depends on how fast a trigger can be pulled. On
    that metric, an AR-15 is closer to a semiautomatic handgun
    10 One pre-Bruen analysis offered a test for “Arms” consistent with the
    elements Heller pointed to: common use, unusualness, dangerousness,
    and use by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes. Eugene Volokh, Im-
    plementing the Right to Keep and Bear Arms for Self Defense: An Analytical
    Framework and a Research Agenda, 56 UCLA L. REV. 1443, 1481–82 (2009).
    Volokh suggested that “Arms” with the same level of practical danger-
    ousness as those in common use are protected. Id. Machineguns fail this
    test due to their rapid rate of fire and the difficulty of firing them in a dis-
    criminating way. The same with short-barreled shotguns, which combine
    the lethality of a shotgun at the short distance characteristic of a criminal
    attack, and the concealability of a handgun. Id. at 1482.
    The weapons banned by the Act and the ordinances here have the
    same practical dangerousness as those in common use among law-abiding
    citizens. See id. at 1485.
    70                                                  Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    (protected in Bruen and Heller) than an automatic rifle such as
    the M16. 11
    Though dangerousness can be measured by many metrics,
    it is best to focus on what we know. The traditional demarca-
    tion for regulation has been between automatic and semiau-
    tomatic weapons. Fully automatic weapons have long been
    heavily regulated, and lawfully owned, fully automatic fire-
    arms are very rare and expensive. 12 The Act and ordinances
    violate that tradition.
    The banned arms are “in common use.” They are com-
    monly possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes,
    including self-defense. They may be “dangerous”—as are all
    firearms—but they are not “unusual,” and thus would not be
    within the history and tradition recognized in Heller of pro-
    hibiting “dangerous and unusual” weapons.
    The Act and ordinances burden the rights of hundreds of
    thousands of law-abiding citizens to keep and bear the types
    of weapons and magazines that have long been deemed
    appropriate for self-defense. This leaves one option for the
    government parties—they must identify analogous weapons
    regulations from at or near the time of the Founding. These
    are the “how” and “why” questions of Bruen’s history and tra-
    dition test—“how” did the regulation burden the Second
    11 See STEPHEN P. HALBROOK, AMERICA’S RIFLE: THE CASE FOR THE AR-
    15, at 9 (2022) (“The features that make an otherwise legal semiautomatic
    firearm an ‘assault weapon’ under various laws do nothing to affect the
    firearm’s functional operation and, if anything, promote safe and accurate
    use.”).
    12 See GARY KLECK, TARGETING GUNS: FIREARMS AND THEIR CONTROL
    108–10 (1997).
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                  71
    Amendment right, and “why” was this regulation adopted?
    The government parties offer a variety of historical regula-
    tions on weapons. These regulations show, they argue, that
    the Act and ordinances are consistent with the Nation’s his-
    tory and tradition. But the governments’ examples are not rel-
    evantly similar—their “how” and “why” set them apart from
    the Act and ordinances here.
    The government parties first point to regulations limiting
    the public carry of certain weapons, such as pistols, dirks (a
    long-bladed dagger), Bowie knives, and clubs. See, e.g., 
    1813 Ky. Acts 100
     (restricting concealed carry of weapons like
    pocket pistols, dirks, or swords in a cane, unless the individ-
    ual was “travelling on a journey”); 1813 La. Acts. 172; 
    1819 Ind. Acts 39
    . But those regulations are limited only to the pub-
    lic carry of certain weapons. The Act and ordinances here do
    more, prohibiting the sale and eventually the possession of
    the banned firearms. The “how” of the current regulations is
    more burdensome than historical regulations limiting public
    carry of weapons.
    The Bowie knife example offered by the government par-
    ties and relied on by the district court in Bevis falls short as a
    historical analogue under the “how” and “why” questions.
    The Bowie knife was not categorically banned, just burdened
    in certain ways. The “how” is different, as it was taxed, or it
    could not be carried. The “why” for the Bowie knife was also
    different. The knife was regulated because it was used in du-
    els, not to stop a mass casualty event—the “why” proffered
    here. 13 Laws banning Bowie knives are also a poor analogue
    13 For example, the Naperville ordinance states its bans are a direct
    response to mass shootings over the last decade. See NAPERVILLE, ILL.
    72                                                  Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    because of what they ban. Guns and knives present different
    dangers. Bodily harm is inflicted up-close and personal with
    a knife, and from a distance with a gun. These differences cau-
    tion that the “how” and “why” behind historical Bowie knife
    regulations are not so comparable to justify the bans here.
    Elsewhere, the government parties note historical bans on
    the sale, possession, and carry of pocket pistols, revolvers,
    and other kinds of weapons. Such regulations appear to have
    been uncommon. One example is an 1837 Georgia statute stat-
    ing, “it shall not be lawful for any merchant … or any person
    or persons whatsoever, to sell, or offer to sell, or to keep, or to
    have about their person or elsewhere, any of the hereinafter
    described weapons, to wit: Bowie, or any other kinds of
    knives, manufactured and sold for the purpose of weapon, or
    carrying the same as arms of offence or defense, pistols, dirks,
    sword canes, spears … save such pistols as are known and
    used as horseman’s pistols … .” 1837 Ga. Acts 90, § 1; see also
    
    1879 Tenn. Pub. Acts 135
    –36, An Act to Prevent the Sale of
    Pistols, chap. 96 § 1; 
    1881 Ark. Acts 192
    , An Act to Preserve
    the Public Peace and Prevent Crime, ch. XCVI, § 3.
    These regulations also tended to restrict only unusual
    kinds of pistols, preserving the right to continue carrying
    army or navy pistols. Even more, Heller, McDonald, and Bruen
    have solidified the constitutional right to own and carry
    handguns, so it is unclear what insights to draw from these
    defunct regulations. The “how” of regulations like the Geor-
    gia statute are thus distinguishable. The current regulations
    do far more than limit small, uncommon handguns or other
    MUN. CODE tit. 3, ch.19 (reciting list of mass shootings and incorporating
    them into text of the ordinance).
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           73
    outlier weapons. They limit access to many of the most popu-
    lar models of semiautomatic rifles, handguns, shotguns, and
    magazines. The Act and ordinances therefore impose a far
    greater burden on the right to keep and bear arms. If all that
    is not enough, the Supreme Court of Georgia declared the
    1837 statute unconstitutional to the extent it limited one’s con-
    stitutional right to carry arms openly. See Nunn v. State, 
    1 Ga. 243
    , 251 (1846); Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at 2147 (discussing Nunn and
    the 1837 Act).
    Cook County contends that historical regulations on gun-
    powder support their current ordinance. The County argues
    that the “why” of those regulations is comparable to the
    “why” of the Act and the county’s ordinance—preventing
    mass casualty events. But the County’s argument “flies too
    high.” The “why” of the gunpowder regulations was to stop
    fires resulting from the combustion of stored flammable ma-
    terials. Moreover, while gunpowder storage was regulated,
    purchasing and possessing gunpowder was not prohibited.
    Fire-safety laws do not create a comparable burden to an ab-
    solute ban on arms. See Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 632
     (“Nothing about
    those fire-safety laws undermines our analysis; they do not
    remotely burden the right of self-defense as an absolute ban
    on handguns.”). Even more, the Court rejected this gunpow-
    der analogy in Heller. 
    Id.
     (“Justice Breyer cites ... gunpowder-
    storage laws that he concedes did not clearly prohibit loaded
    weapons, but required only that excess gunpowder be kept in
    a special container or on the top floor of the home. Nothing
    about those fire-safety laws undermines our analysis; they do
    not remotely burden the right of self-defense as much as an
    absolute ban on handguns.”).
    74                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    Various government parties also offer as historical ana-
    logues regulations on trap or spring guns, fully automatic ma-
    chineguns, and short-barreled rifles and shotguns. See, e.g., 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (a)(4) (short-barreled shotguns and rifles); 
    id.
    § 922(o) (machineguns); 1763–
    1775 N.J. Laws 346
    , An Act for
    the Preservation of Deer and Other Game, and to Prevent
    Trespassing with Guns, ch. 539, § 10 (trap guns). But the
    “how” and “why” of those restrictions are materially differ-
    ent as well. Trap or spring guns—rigged to fire when a string
    or other device is triggered by contact—do not provide a his-
    torical analogue. They fire indiscriminately, and the “why” of
    banning them—the imbalance of using lethal force to protect
    property versus human life—is different than the “why” the
    Act and ordinances seek to address of stopping escalating gun
    violence. Just so, machineguns can expend hundreds more
    rounds per second than even the fastest semiautomatic fire-
    arm, disqualifying such a law as an analogue.
    The majority opinion also relies on anti-carry laws as ana-
    logues. But the challenged Act and ordinances ban possession
    of arms. The distinction between anti-carry and anti-posses-
    sion laws is critical: the first limits only the way a person may
    use a firearm in public; the second categorically denies pos-
    session of a firearm for any purpose. To elide this difference
    between anti-carry and anti-possession laws ignores Heller
    and Bruen. Bruen states that the “central” consideration in as-
    sessing historical analogues is “whether modern and histori-
    cal regulations impose a comparable burden on the right of
    armed self-defense and whether that burden is comparably
    justified.” 142 S. Ct. at 2133.
    This leaves only those regulations restricting semiauto-
    matic firearms and ammunition feeding devices, but those
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                          75
    regulations all come from the twentieth century. Even if valid
    for other reasons, Bruen states that regulations so far from the
    time of the Founding cannot meaningfully inform the history
    and tradition analysis. 142 S. Ct. at 2136–37 (“[W]e must also
    guard against giving postenactment history more weight than
    it can rightly bear.”).
    Even if the government parties had identified a historical
    analogue that satisfied the “how” and “why” inquiries of
    Bruen’s history and tradition test, a single such regulation was
    not enough in that case. 142 S. Ct. at 2153. In fact, three ana-
    logues were not enough in Bruen. Id. One can ask if there is
    any “why” in support of the Act and ordinances that did not
    also apply to the ownership and public carry of handguns in
    Bruen. If the “how” and “why” of handguns did not satisfy
    Bruen, what about these regulations supply a different
    “why”? This question was not adequately answered at oral
    argument. 14
    Because the Act and ordinances fail the “how” and “why”
    questions of Bruen, the government parties have not met their
    burden that these regulations are “relevantly similar” to a his-
    torical law. Some hypothetical laws might satisfy the history
    and tradition test—say, a law that banned carbine rifles that
    hold more than six rounds, or possession of a pistol that need
    not be reloaded. Magazines fall within the category of
    “Arms,” so banning them must also satisfy the history and
    tradition test. For example, if there had been a historical ana-
    logue of “25 or fewer bullets is the number of shots a gun shall
    fire,” the government parties might rely on that. But no such
    laws have been cited for firearms or magazines. The
    14 Oral Arg. at 15:20.
    76                                              Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    government parties have failed to show that the Act and
    ordinances are consistent with the Nation’s history and tradi-
    tion of firearm regulation. History and tradition do not sup-
    port banning firearms and magazines so many citizens own,
    possess, and use for lawful purposes.
    To finish up likelihood of success on the merits, I agree
    with my colleagues that on this record, the registration re-
    quirement does not appear to be unconstitutional.
    B
    On the second consideration for a preliminary injunction,
    an alleged constitutional violation often constitutes irrepara-
    ble harm. See Int’l Ass’n of Fire Fighters, Loc. 365 v. City of East
    Chicago, 
    56 F.4th 437
    , 450 (7th Cir. 2022); 11A CHARLES ALAN
    WRIGHT & ARTHUR R. MILLER, FEDERAL PRACTICE AND
    PROCEDURE § 2948.1 (3d ed. 2022) (“When an alleged depriva-
    tion of a constitutional right is involved ... most courts hold
    that no further showing of irreparable injury is necessary.”).
    For some constitutional violations, particularly First Amend-
    ment violations, irreparable harm is presumed. Christian Legal
    Soc’y v. Walker, 
    453 F.3d 853
    , 867 (7th Cir. 2006). Although the
    Supreme Court has not recognized a presumption of irrepa-
    rable harm for Second Amendment violations, it has empha-
    sized that the constitutional right to bear arms for self-defense
    is not “a second-class right, subject to an entirely different
    body of rules than the other Bill of Rights guarantees.” Bruen,
    142 S. Ct. at 2156 (citing McDonald v. City of Chicago, 
    561 U.S. 742
    , 780 (2010) (plurality opinion)).
    This court has held that when a law is facially challenged
    under the Second Amendment, “the form of the claim and the
    substance of the Second Amendment right” create a “harm
    [that] is properly regarded as irreparable and having no
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                        77
    adequate remedy at law.” Ezell, 651 F.3d at 699–700. In Ezell,
    the court likened the plaintiff’s alleged Second Amendment
    harm to a First Amendment challenge, implying a presump-
    tion of irreparable harm. Id. In accord, the Ninth Circuit has
    held that there is a presumption of irreparable harm where a
    Second Amendment right is violated. See Baird v. Bonta, 
    81 F.4th 1036
    , 1046 (9th Cir. 2023) (“[W]e presume that a consti-
    tutional violation causes a preliminary injunction movant ir-
    reparable harm and that preventing a constitutional violation
    is in the public interest.”) Pre-Bruen, the D.C. Circuit con-
    cluded the same. See Wrenn v. District of Columbia, 
    864 F.3d 650
    , 667–68 (D.C. Cir. 2017).
    Accordingly, a violation of the Second Amendment right
    presumptively causes irreparable harm. The Act and other or-
    dinances challenged here violate the Second Amendment,
    and thus, irreparable harm has occurred. The majority opin-
    ion does not speak to irreparable harm.
    Neither of the final two preliminary injunction factors—
    balance of the equities and what the public interest dictates—
    cuts against the plaintiffs. Gunshot victims and gun owners
    each claim harms, and what is in the public interest on ques-
    tions of gun possession and ownership is constantly under
    public debate. So, I would rule that preliminary injunctions
    are justified against enforcement of the challenged laws.
    IV
    In reaching the opposite result, the majority opinion ap-
    plies precedent and reasoning that Bruen abrogated.
    A
    Notwithstanding Bruen, the majority opinion relies on rea-
    soning from this court’s decision in Friedman v. City of
    78                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    Highland Park, 
    784 F.3d 406
     (7th Cir. 2015). See also Wilson v.
    Cook County, 
    937 F.3d 1028
    , 1035 (7th Cir. 2019) (relying on
    Friedman to dismiss a Second Amendment challenge to the
    Cook County ordinance banning assault weapons and large-
    capacity magazines). It is true that the Act regulates firearms
    and magazines in substantially the same way as the ordi-
    nances in Friedman (Highland Park) and in Wilson (Cook
    County), which were upheld. Compare 720 ILL. COMP. STAT. §§
    5/24-1.9(a)(1), 1.10(a) with Friedman, 784 F.3d at 407 and Wilson,
    937 F.3d at 1029–30. As noted in I., the City of Chicago and
    City of Naperville ordinances are functionally similar to the
    Act and the Cook County ordinance.
    In Friedman, this court announced a unique test for Second
    Amendment questions: “whether a regulation bans weapons
    that were common at the time of ratification or those that have
    ‘some reasonable relationship to the preservation or efficiency
    of a well regulated militia,’ … and whether law-abiding citi-
    zens retain adequate means of self-defense.” 784 F.3d at 410.
    The government parties assert Friedman focused on the con-
    siderations identified by Heller and Bruen, specifically,
    historical evidence and the impact of the regulation on an in-
    dividual’s meaningful opportunities for self-defense. Id.; Wil-
    son, 937 F.3d at 1033. Friedman is therefore compatible with
    the constitutional analysis endorsed by Bruen, the govern-
    ment parties submit, and Friedman remains good law and
    should control the outcome here.
    But after Bruen, Friedman’s test is no longer viable, and
    much of Friedman is inconsistent with it. The Second Amend-
    ment’s “reference to ‘arms’ does not apply only to those arms
    in existence in the 18th century.” Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at 2132
    (cleaned up). That amendment’s operative clause “does not
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                            79
    depend on service in the militia.” Id. at 2127. Indeed, the dis-
    sent in Bruen admitted that under the majority opinion’s hold-
    ing the scope of the right to bear arms has “nothing whatever
    to do with service in a militia.” Id. at 2177–78 (Breyer, J. dis-
    senting). And “the right to bear other weapons is ‘no answer’
    to a ban on the possession of protected arms.” Caetano, 577
    U.S. at 421 (quoting Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 629
    ).
    This court in Friedman based its decision in substantial part
    on its view of the benefits of the ordinance, including that the
    arms ban reduced “perceived risk” and “makes the public feel
    safer.” 784 F.3d at 411–12. But Bruen emphatically rejected this
    sort of interest-balancing. 142 S. Ct. at 2127. Friedman also held
    that categorical bans may be proper even if the limits do not
    “mirror restrictions that were on the books in 1791.” 
    784 F.3d 410
    . The Bruen decision superseded that, concluding that a re-
    striction on Second Amendment rights will survive scrutiny
    only if “the government identif[ies] a well-established and
    representative historical analogue” to the regulation. 
    142 S. Ct. 2133
    .
    Friedman looked to history when it held that a court must
    ask whether the arms were common at the time of ratification.
    784 F.3d at 410. But in Bruen, the Court was clear that “the
    Second Amendment’s definition of ‘arms’ … covers modern
    instruments that facilitate armed self-defense,” “‘even those
    that were not in existence at the time of the founding.’” 142 S.
    Ct. at 2132 (quoting Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 582
    ); see Caetano, 577
    U.S. at 411–12 (holding lower court’s decision that arms were
    unprotected because they were not in common use at the time
    of ratification was “inconsistent with Heller”).
    In Wilson, this court described Friedman as “evaluat[ing]
    the importance of the reasons for the [ban] to determine
    80                                           Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    whether they justified the ban’s intrusion on Second Amend-
    ment rights,” such as the “‘substantial’ interest[]” in “making
    the public feel safer” and “overall dangerousness.” Wilson,
    937 F.3d at 1036. But Bruen rejected that interest-balancing ap-
    proach as “inconsistent with Heller’s historical approach.”
    Bruen, 142 S. Ct. at 2129. Governments may no longer “simply
    posit that the regulation promotes an important interest,” id.
    at 2126, or advances a “substantial benefit,” Friedman, 784 F.3d
    at 412. Wilson described Friedman’s application of an interest-
    balancing test as “intermediate scrutiny,” Wilson, 937 F.3d at
    1036, the approach Bruen expressly left behind.
    Recently, in Atkinson v. Garland, 
    70 F.4th 1018
     (7th Cir.
    2023), this court considered the new world Bruen presented
    for Second Amendment jurisprudence, in the context of pos-
    session of a firearm as a felon. Id. at 1022. There, we declined
    to avoid a Bruen analysis by relying on Heller and instead
    stated, “[w]e must undertake the text-and-history inquiry the
    Court so plainly announced and expounded upon at great
    length.” Id. Neither the majority nor the dissent in Atkinson
    discussed or even cited Friedman, although those opinions re-
    lied on other pre-Bruen precedents from our court.
    In sum, Bruen effectively abrogated Friedman and Wilson.
    The “history and tradition” methodology of Bruen is not the
    framework applied in either of those cases. “Stare decisis can-
    not justify adherence to an approach that Supreme Court
    precedent forecloses.” Fed. Trade Comm’n v. Credit Bureau Ctr.,
    LLC, 
    937 F.3d 764
    , 767 (7th Cir. 2019). “When an intervening
    Supreme Court decision unsettles [this court’s] precedent, it
    is the ruling of the [Supreme] Court … that must carry the
    day.” United States v. Wahi, 
    850 F.3d 296
    , 302 (7th Cir. 2017).
    That happened here, and the district court in Bevis correctly
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           81
    concluded that Friedman cannot be reconciled with Bruen.
    This court should review the challenged laws under Bruen’s
    framework, distinct from any interest-balancing approach,
    and separate from the reasoning employed in Friedman and
    Wilson.
    The majority opinion is correct that Friedman’s test differs
    from the two-step interest balancing test of other courts that
    Bruen replaced. Nevertheless, Friedman cites to history to com-
    pare the arms the regulation bans, rather than the regulations
    themselves. 784 F.3d at 410. Friedman discusses the features of
    the weapons, including whether they are in common use for
    militia or police functions. Id. It also examines the gun’s char-
    acteristics—such as its weight, caliber, and magazine capac-
    ity—as determinative of its value to self-defense. Id. at 411.
    Representative of that analysis, the majority opinion engages
    in a matching exercise between the AR-15 and the M16, as-
    sessing the similarity and differences of the characteristics of
    the two firearms.
    In stark contrast, in Bruen the Court did not say “Arms”
    are defined by using the history and tradition of military ver-
    sus civilian weaponry, such as the line drawn in the majority
    opinion. Rather, the Court looked to common usage to define
    the term “Arms.” Even more, the assessment in Bruen is
    whether a firearm regulation has a historical analogue, 142 S.
    Ct. at 2133, not whether a weapon does. Under Bruen’s frame-
    work, courts can entertain the parties’ arguments as to
    whether a regulation is a historical analogue. Per Bruen,
    whether firearm regulations were historically grounded in a
    military versus civilian distinction is to be performed as part
    of the history and tradition analysis, not in the plain text re-
    view, as the majority opinion does.
    82                                                   Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    B
    The majority opinion’s reasoning departs from Bruen in
    other ways, which I examine next.
    1. A weapon’s military counterpart does not determine
    whether it is an “Arm.”
    The AR-15 is a civilian, not military, weapon. No army in
    the world uses a service rifle that is only semiautomatic.15
    Even so, the majority opinion uses a civilian firearm’s military
    counterpart to determine whether it is an “Arm.” But neither
    Heller nor Bruen draw a military/civilian line for the Second
    Amendment. Similarity between the AR-15 and the M16
    should not be the basis on which to conclude that the AR-15
    is not a weapon used in self-defense.
    The majority opinion concludes that Heller limits the scope
    of “Arms” in the amendment to those not “dedicated to mili-
    tary use” and those possessed for a lawful purpose. Citing to
    “historical support” that “the Arms protected by the Second
    Amendment do not include weapons for the military,” the
    majority opinion focuses on Heller’s comment about the M16
    rifle. 
    554 U.S. at 627
    . The AR-15 and the M16 are similar weap-
    ons, my colleagues conclude, which means the AR-15 is be-
    yond protection under the Second Amendment.
    My colleagues read the passages in Heller discussing
    weapons with military capabilities too broadly, however,
    placing controlling weight on supporting or explanatory lan-
    guage in that decision. For example, Heller did not limit the
    scope of “Arms” to those without an analogous military
    15 E. Gregory Wallace, “Assault Weapon” Myths, 43 S. ILL. U. L.J. 193,
    205–06 (2018).
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                             83
    capacity. 
    554 U.S. at
    581–82. The majority opinion emphasizes
    the statement in Heller that “Arms” are “weapons that were
    not specifically designed for military use and were not em-
    ployed in a military capacity.” Maj. Op. at 26 (emphasis omit-
    ted). But this passage most naturally means that the public
    understanding of “Arms” encompassed more than weapons
    designed for or employed in a military capacity. At that sec-
    tion of Heller, the Court was refuting the argument that the
    Second Amendment only protected a military right to keep
    and bear arms. Instead, “Arms” was broad enough to include
    “any thing that a man wears for his defence, or takes into his
    hands, or useth in wrath to coast at or strike another.” Heller,
    
    554 U.S. at 581
    . That passage in Heller does not support a read-
    ing that weapons the military uses are not “Arms.”
    Relying on Heller’s discussion of United States v. Miller—
    the Supreme Court’s 1939 decision upholding a conviction
    under the National Firearms Act against a Second Amend-
    ment challenge—the majority opinion points out that milita-
    ristic weapons are not “bearable” and thus not “arms” at all.
    Justice Stevens in dissent in Heller viewed Miller as endorsing
    a military-only view of the Second Amendment. To him, Mil-
    ler says regulating “the nonmilitary use and ownership of
    weapons” is fine—so the Amendment protects only the “right
    to keep and bear arms for certain military purposes.” 
    Id.
     at
    637–38 (Stevens, J., dissenting).
    But according to Heller, Miller does not say that the Second
    Amendment protects machineguns as part of ordinary mili-
    tary equipment. Rather, Miller explains that a short-barreled
    shotgun, the weapon at issue, is not “‘any part of the ordinary
    military equipment’” nor “‘could contribute to the common
    defense.’” 
    Id. at 622
     (quoting Miller, 
    307 U.S. at 178
    ). In Heller,
    84                                             Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    the Court explained, “we therefore read Miller to say only that
    the Second Amendment does not protect those weapons not
    typically possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful pur-
    poses, such as short-barreled shotguns.” Id. at 625.
    The majority opinion here quotes this passage and re-
    frames it as a military-analogue test. It introduces the passage
    with Heller’s observation that an M16 is “most useful in mili-
    tary service.” Id. at 627. But after Heller, we know Miller does
    not address a weapon’s military use. Because the National
    Firearms Act of 1934 targeted the firearms most commonly
    used by criminals and gangs, Miller’s “lawful use” language
    relates to criminal use, not military use.
    One example of this military-analogue test falling short is
    when the majority opinion compares the rates of fire of the
    AR-15 and the M16. My colleagues credit the AR-15’s rate of
    fire as “‘only’ 300 rounds per minute,” which they do not see
    as a relevant difference from the M16’s 700 rounds per mi-
    nute. Maj. Op. at 33. The two record sources they point to do
    not support a 300-rounds-per-minute rate; in fact, those
    sources give good reasons to doubt that figure.
    The first is the district court’s opinion in Bevis, which ex-
    plains: “[A] shooter using a semiautomatic weapon can
    launch thirty rounds in as little as six seconds, with an effec-
    tive rate of about a bullet per second for each minute of firing,
    meeting the U.S. Army definition for ‘rapid fire.’” Set to the
    side the district court’s concession that the effective rate is ac-
    tually only sixty rounds per minute. For the 300-rounds-per-
    minute figure, the district court cited a law journal article that
    spends nine pages discussing the dubious origins of the 300-
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           85
    rounds-per-minute claim. 16 Wallace agrees that 30 shots in six
    seconds is possible—if you are an expert at operating firearms
    and you neglect aiming and reloading.17
    The second source that might be referenced for the figure
    is a government witness’s report in Herrera. James Yurgealitis
    included a chart listing weapons, an ammunition type, and
    the “semiautomatic cyclic rate” of each. Each rifle, including
    “M-16/AR-15 Rifle,” has a cyclic rate of exactly 300 rounds per
    minute, and the three pistols have a rate of “300–400 rounds
    per minute.” Yurgealitis offers no source for his calculations.
    He does not describe the firing conditions or how the shooter
    timed the shots.
    Yurgealitis describes the rate as “cyclic,” a type of fire
    where “the gunner holds the trigger to the rear while the as-
    sistant gunner feeds ammunition into the weapon.” DEP’T OF
    THE ARMY, ARMY TRAINING PUBLICATION: INFANTRY PLATOON
    AND SQUAD, ATP 3-21.8, at Appendix F. The cyclic rate “pro-
    duces the highest volume of fire the machine gun can fire”
    and is a drastic step, as it “can permanently damage the
    machine gun and barrel and should be used only in case of
    emergency.” Id. It is difficult to see how a gunner could fire
    an AR-15 cyclically. Because it is a semiautomatic firearm, if
    the trigger were held to the rear, the cyclic rate would be one
    round per minute. Yurgealitis does not explain how this can
    be done.
    The effective rate of fire, rather than the cyclic rate, would
    be a better comparison. There, Yurgealitis helps. He includes
    in his report a table from an Army field manual on rifle
    16 See Wallace, supra note 15 at 214–22.
    17 See id. at 217–18.
    86                                              Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    marksmanship listing the M16’s maximum semiautomatic ef-
    fective rate at 45 rounds per minute—more than four times
    slower than its maximum automatic effective rate.
    Heller does not draw a line between firearms that are mil-
    itary counterparts and those that are not. That demarcation
    should not decide whether firearms and magazines are pro-
    tected under the Second Amendment.
    2. A “military weapon” is defined too broadly.
    Even if Heller drew such a line, the majority opinion’s
    standard for what constitutes a “military weapon” renders
    the “military” category substantially overbroad.
    The majority opinion draws a line between “private” or
    “mixed private/military” weapons on one side (also charac-
    terized as “dual use” weapons) and “military weapons” on
    the other side. Military weapons are defined as “weapons that
    may be essentially reserved to the military,” Maj. Op. at 31
    n.8—meaning that a military weapon is one not made availa-
    ble for public use. The only “characteristic” that matters is
    that the government decided to ban it. “Dual use” weapons
    are those “private parties have a constitutionally protected
    right to ‘keep and bear’” and “the military provides [] to its
    forces.” Id. “In this sense, there is a thumb on the scale in favor
    of Second Amendment protection.” Id. Under the majority
    opinion’s definition, “dual use” weapons are on the side of
    the line protected by the Second Amendment.
    Applying their framework, my colleagues find the AR-15
    “more like” the M16 by comparing the firearms’ characteris-
    tics. Id. To my colleagues, the firearms look the same (“same
    core design”), operate the same (“same patented operating
    system”), and have similar specifications (same ammunition,
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                              87
    kinetic energy, muzzle velocity, and effective range), identi-
    fying “the only meaningful distinction” as an M16’s auto-
    matic-fire capability. Id. at 31–32. But because the AR-15 is not
    “essentially reserved to the military” and shares characteris-
    tics with “private” weapons, such as being semiautomatic, the
    AR-15 is at most a “dual use” weapon. So under the majority
    opinion’s categories, the AR-15 should warrant Second
    Amendment protection.
    In any event, because the majority opinion defines a mili-
    tary weapon as any that “may be essentially reserved to the
    military,” a weapon’s characteristics are not relevant to how
    it is categorized. Thus, any combat weapon would be a mili-
    tary weapon. This effectively allows the U.S. Armed Forces to
    decide what “Arms” are protected under the Second Amend-
    ment. Such a “military veto” is mistaken for at least three rea-
    sons.
    First, the military has historically selected for commission
    firearms already publicly available and thus on the “dual use”
    side of the line. Privately available repeating and semiauto-
    matic rifles, and the arms the American military selected for
    wartime use, overlapped substantially at least until the 1930’s.
    When the Second Amendment was ratified, repeaters—
    firearms capable of repeated firing before they required man-
    ual reloading—were useful for military purposes and were
    widely available for civilian purchase. The Girandoni air rifle,
    for example, was invented for the Austrian army.18 The
    “state-of-the-art repeater” at the time, the Girandoni was
    18 NICHOLAS J. JOHNSON, ET AL., FIREARMS LAW AND THE SECOND
    AMENDMENT: REGULATION, RIGHTS, AND POLICY 2206 (3d ed., 2021).
    88                                                      Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    useful for hunting as well—Meriwether Lewis took one on his
    expedition. 19 In 1828, the military awarded a contract to a
    gunsmith to produce the Jennings repeater for military use.20
    But the military only “considered the guns promising” after
    seven years of “private use,” as the repeater had been circu-
    lating at least since 1821. 21 Another repeater, the Henry, won
    a military contract after a Union captain used it to defend his
    home against seven Confederates who ambushed him while
    eating dinner with his family. 22
    In 1900, the military began considering semiautomatic ri-
    fles but, after years of searching, decided to stick with the
    .30’06 Springfield bolt-action rifle. 23 Even though “semi-auto-
    matic rifles for the civilian market were abundant,” the mili-
    tary declined to select one because they were too complicated
    and brittle for field use. 24 In the 1930s, the military’s desire to
    issue semiautomatic rifles caused it to “encourage[] … private
    experimentation” in development and testing. 25 A military
    veto contravenes the robust history of “dual use” weapons
    beyond the private sector.
    19 See id.
    20 See id. at 2221.
    21 Id.
    22 HORACE WILLIAM SHALER CLEVELAND, HINTS TO RIFLEMEN 180–81
    (1864). See also id. at 179 (reproducing letter from a private citizen testify-
    ing to the exceptional quality of the weapon).
    23 See JOHNSON at 2233–34.
    24 Id. at 2233.
    25 Id. at 2234.
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                                    89
    Second, the military has historically commissioned pistols,
    a firearm that is an “Arm” under Heller. Pistols have always
    been standard-issue military firearms. Under the majority
    opinion’s approach, Heller would have been mistaken.
    Major Pitcairn began the American Revolution with a shot
    from his pistol. 26 General George Washington carried pistols
    into battle at Valley Forge, Monmouth, and Yorktown. 27 In
    1811, a brigade major in the Massachusetts militia described
    the pistol as a standard weapon for an infantryman in a com-
    prehensive guide to the day’s military science. 28
    The military has not stopped issuing pistols. In 1911, after
    lengthy trials and revisions with Colt and gun designer John
    Browning, the military selected for its troops the Colt Model
    1911. 29 It is unclear whether that model was available for ci-
    vilian purchase after the military contract in 1911. But like
    more common civilian handguns, the M1911 was semiauto-
    matic and had an eight-round magazine. 30 Indeed, the Civil-
    ian Marksmanship Program, a federally chartered 501(c)(3)
    26 See CHARLES WINTHROP SAWYER, 1 FIREARMS IN AMERICAN HISTORY:
    1600 TO 1800, at 72 (1910).
    27 See Evan Brune, Arms of Independence: The Guns of the American Rev-
    olution, AM. RIFLEMAN (July 2, 2021), https://www.americanrifle-
    man.org/content/arms-of-independence-the-guns-of-the-american-revo-
    lution [https://perma.cc/9S69-T56Y].
    28 See E. HOYT, PRACTICAL INSTRUCTIONS FOR MILITARY OFFICERS 111
    (1811).
    29 See JOHNSON at 2232.
    30 See id.
    90                                                   Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    entity responsible for arranging sales of decommissioned mil-
    itary service weapons to the public, sells Colt M1911s today.31
    In the 1980s, the military switched to the Beretta M9, a
    handgun with a counterpart available for purchase today on
    Beretta’s website. In fact, the M9 was designed and available
    to civilians a decade before the military selected it as the
    Beretta 92. 32 The only differences between the military-issue
    M9 and the one for public sale are the markings, the dots on
    the sights, and the screw heads. 33 Under the majority opinion,
    the military’s decision to award Beretta a military contract for
    the Beretta 92 would take the firearm out of the “Arms” pro-
    tected by the Second Amendment.
    Third, the military’s decommissioning and sale of its sur-
    plus weapons would mean that the Second Amendment right
    might spring into and out of life. The military sometimes de-
    commissions service weapons and sells them to the public
    through the Civilian Marksmanship Program, as mentioned
    31      See    About,     CIV.     MARKSMANSHIP       PROG.     (2023),
    https://thecmp.org/about/ [https://perma.cc/L7T5-6T5D];1911 Information,
    CIV. MARKSMANSHIP PROG. (2023), https://thecmp.org/sales-and-ser-
    vice/1911-information/ [https://perma.cc/7HQW-G3VJ].
    32 See American Service Pistols & Civilian Counterparts, KEYSTONE
    SHOOTING CTR. (2023), https://keystoneshootingcenter.com/blog/ameri-
    can-service-pistols-civilian-counterparts [https://perma.cc/UG45-V46Q].
    33 See Christopher Bartocci, Beretta Government vs Commercial M9 Iden-
    tification, SMALL ARMS SOLUTIONS LLC (May 28, 2018), https://smal-
    larmssolutions.com/home/beretta-government-vs-commercial-m8-identi-
    fication [https://perma.cc/EDT4-JEXT]; Bob Campbell, Range Report:
    Beretta’s M9 Civilian Version, CHEAPER THAN DIRT: THE SHOOTER’S LOG
    (Feb. 22, 2016), https://blog.cheaperthandirt.com/berettas-m9-civilian-ver-
    sion [https://perma.cc/VL7T-ZXQA] (“The M9 is a variant that’s as close
    to the military M9 as possible. The sights are marked in a different man-
    ner, and the finish differs from the standard M92.”).
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                          91
    above. As with the M16, the military also decides not to renew
    contracts for weapons it deems no longer fit for military use.
    The majority opinion does not explain the status of a weapon
    like this, including whether the right to possess it springs to
    life, or if its analogues become “Arms.”
    3. The examples given are not historical analogues.
    The majority opinion sets forth “the relevant question [a]s
    what are the modern analogues to the weapons people used
    for their personal self-defense in 1791, and perhaps as late as
    1868.” Maj. Op. at 38. But when declaring its holding in Bruen,
    the Court discussed historical analogues with reference not to
    weapons, but to regulations. Following Heller, Bruen consid-
    ered “whether ‘historical precedent’ from before, during, and
    even after the founding evinces a comparable tradition of reg-
    ulation.” Bruen, 
    142 S. Ct. 2111
    , 2131–32. “Only if a firearm
    regulation is consistent with this Nation’s historical tradition
    may a court conclude that the individual’s conduct falls out-
    side the Second Amendment’s ‘unqualified command.’” Id. at
    2126.
    The seven historical examples the majority opinion offers
    as comparators are laws or ordinances which it says support
    “a distinction between weapons and accessories designed for
    military or law-enforcement use, and weapons designed for
    personal use.” Id. at 45. For my colleagues, the challenged Act
    and ordinances carry forward this same distinction. Under
    Bruen, though, these examples do not satisfy the “how” and
    “why” questions in the history and tradition test, and thus are
    not comparators for the challenged Act or ordinances.
    92                                                      Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    The first example is a 1746 Boston ordinance outlawing the
    discharge of a cannon, gun or pistol within city limits. 34 The
    second is an allusion to similar ordinances in Cleveland in the
    nineteenth century. The fourth refers to late nineteenth cen-
    tury ordinances restricting the carry of various weapons. ex-
    cept for peace officers. Such prohibitions differ, however,
    from a categorical ban of a class of weapons from private
    ownership which burden the right of armed self-defense.
    Regulations against the discharge of weapons compare better
    to modern criminal statutes prohibiting, for example, the
    reckless discharge of a firearm. See 720 ILL. COMP. STAT. § 5/24-
    1.5(a). And prohibitions on the carrying of certain weapons
    do not amount to a categorical ban of whole classes of fire-
    arms. These examples thus fail the “how” question in Bruen.
    The fifth, sixth, and seventh examples are the National
    Firearms Act of 1934 and two amendments to it: the Omnibus
    Crime control and Safe Streets Act of 1968, and Firearm Own-
    ers’ Protection Act of 1986. Yet these examples do not provide
    insight into the public understanding of the Second Amend-
    ment right in 1791 (or in 1868). They are too far removed from
    the ratification of the Constitution (or of the Fourteenth
    Amendment) to qualify as historical analogues under Bruen.
    They therefore fail the “why” question in Bruen.
    The remaining third example cites dozens of Bowie knife
    regulations which forbid or limit their use, specifically citing
    an 1884 Arkansas statute outlawing “the sale of all dirks,
    Bowie knives, cane-swords, metal knuckles, and pistols, ex-
    cept as for use in the army or navy of the United States.” This
    34 Heller rejected this regulation as a historical analogue. 
    554 U.S. at 633
    .
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                               93
    law was passed after ratification of the Fourteenth Amend-
    ment and banned the sale of these knives. It did not categori-
    cally ban their possession. This example fails the “how” and
    the “why” test of Bruen for the reasons given previously.
    Attempting to show that the “how” test has been correctly
    applied, my colleagues point to what they consider a “huge
    carve-out” in the Act. Maj. Op. at 39. To the contrary, excep-
    tions to the categorical ban in the Act are narrow. The Act out-
    right forbids the manufacture, delivery, sale, importation, and
    purchasing of the covered arms within the state of Illinois. On
    January 1, 2024, a total ban on possession of the covered arms
    takes effect. 720 ILL. COMP. STAT. § 5/24-1.9(c). Though an ex-
    ception exists for those who submit a compliant “endorse-
    ment affidavit” to the Illinois State Police, id. § 5/24-1.9(d), the
    majority opinion mistakes its scope. The exception is limited
    to the sale or transfer of a covered arm: (1) to seven specially
    excepted classes of authorized persons; (2) to the United
    States; or (3) in another state or for export. Id. § 5/24-1.9(e).
    And the only people who can take advantage of this exception
    are current in-state residents who possess a covered arm prior
    to January 1, 2024, and future in-state residents who move
    into Illinois already in possession of a covered arm. Id. 35 Such
    a narrow exception cannot legitimize a broad categorical ban
    on the ownership, possession, purchase, and sale of a vast
    swath of arms.
    For my colleagues, it is sufficient that the seven regula-
    tions deemed similar “are representative of [the] tradition” of
    35 The municipal ordinances are even more limiting, excepting from
    their reach only military and law enforcement personnel. NAPERVILLE,
    ILL., MUN. CODE tit. 3 ch. 19 § 2; CHI. MUN. CODE § 8-20-075(b); COOK
    COUNTY, ILL. CODE § 54-212(a)(1).
    94                                            Nos. 23-1353 et al.
    “regulating the especially dangerous weapons of the time.”
    Yet, Bruen requires more. The particulars of the historical an-
    alogues are critical; they illustrate whether the Act and the
    municipal ordinances place comparable burdens on the Sec-
    ond Amendment right when considered against historical an-
    alogues. Bruen itself gave weight to the differences between
    the particulars of regulations. 142 S. Ct. at 2148–49 (rejecting
    nineteenth century surety statutes as sufficiently analogous to
    restrictions on public carry because these laws did not consti-
    tute a “ban[] on public carry,” indicating their “burden” on
    public carry was “likely too insignificant.”). The examples the
    majority opinion cites may illustrate weapons regulation gen-
    erally. But none of them is a categorical ban on an entire class
    of arms.
    V
    Since Bruen, this is the first federal appellate court to up-
    hold a categorical ban on semiautomatic weapons and certain
    magazines.
    The decision in Barnett was correct. The district court
    properly rejected the notion that the Second Amendment pro-
    tects only the possession and use of weapons for self-defense.
    The banned magazines are “Arms,” as are other appurte-
    nances such as a pistol grip and a flash suppressor. The court
    correctly read Heller and Bruen to locate “in common use” in
    Bruen’s history and tradition and applied the “how” and
    “why” test to conclude that concealed carry regulation differs
    from a ban on possession and does not pass as a historical an-
    alog. This led the court to correctly issue an injunction against
    the Act.
    The district court in Bevis correctly found standing, noted
    that unlike other constitutional amendments the Second
    Nos. 23-1353 et al.                                           95
    Amendment protects a tangible item, and concluded that
    Friedman did not survive Bruen. I disagree, however, with the
    court’s decisions in Bevis to limit “Arms” to those weapons
    that are not “particularly dangerous,” and its justification of
    the Act and the Naperville ordinance under the historical test
    without mentioning Bruen’s “how” and “why” test. As noted
    above, the court’s Bowie knife analogue misses the mark. In
    Herrera the district court relied heavily on the memorandum
    opinion and order in Bevis, incorporating large parts of that
    decision.
    I would affirm the decision in Barnett and reverse the de-
    cisions in Bevis and Herrera and lift our court’s stay on the in-
    junction against the Act. I would vacate the decisions in Bevis
    and Herrera and remand for the district court to reconsider the
    denial of the injunction against the challenged municipal or-
    dinances.
    For these reasons, I respectfully dissent.
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 23-1828

Filed Date: 11/3/2023

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 11/4/2023