Citizens Telecommunications v. FCC ( 2018 )


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  •             United States Court of Appeals
    For the Eighth Circuit
    ___________________________
    No. 17-2296
    ___________________________
    Citizens Telecommunications Company of Minnesota, LLC
    lllllllllllllllllllllPetitioner
    v.
    Federal Communications Commission; United States of America
    lllllllllllllllllllllRespondents
    Ad Hoc Telecommunications Users Committee; BT Americas, Inc.; Granite
    Telecommunications, LLC; INCOMPAS; Sprint Corporation; Windstream
    Services, LLC
    lllllllllllllllllllllIntervenors
    ___________________________
    No. 17-2342
    ___________________________
    Ad Hoc Telecommunications Users Committee; BT Americas, Inc.; Granite
    Telecommunications, LLC; INCOMPAS; Sprint Corporation; Windstream
    Services, LLC
    lllllllllllllllllllllPetitioners
    v.
    Federal Communications Commission; United States of America
    lllllllllllllllllllllRespondents
    NCTA-The Internet & Television Association; Comcast Corporation; AT&T
    Services, Inc.; USTelecom; CenturyLink, Inc.
    lllllllllllllllllllllIntervenors
    ------------------------------
    Consumer Federation of America; New Networks Institute; Public Knowledge
    lllllllllllllllllllllAmici on Behalf of Petitioners
    ___________________________
    No. 17-2344
    ___________________________
    CenturyLink, Incorporated
    lllllllllllllllllllllPetitioner
    v.
    Federal Communications Commission; United States of America
    lllllllllllllllllllllRespondents
    Ad Hoc Telecommunications Users Committee; BT Americas, Inc.; Granite
    Telecommunications, LLC; INCOMPAS; Sprint Corporation; Windstream
    Services, LLC
    lllllllllllllllllllllIntervenors
    ___________________________
    No. 17-2685
    ___________________________
    -2-
    Access Point, Inc.; Alpheus Communications, LLC; New Horizons
    Communications Corp.; XChange Telecom, LLC
    lllllllllllllllllllllPetitioners
    v.
    Federal Communications Commission; United States of America
    lllllllllllllllllllllRespondents
    NCTA-The Internet & Television Association; Comcast Corporation; AT&T
    Services, Inc.; USTelecom; CenturyLink, Inc.
    lllllllllllllllllllllIntervenors
    ------------------------------
    Consumer Federation of America; New Networks Institute; Public Knowledge
    lllllllllllllllllllllAmici on Behalf of Petitioners
    ____________
    Petitions for Review of an Order of the
    Federal Communications Commission
    ____________
    Submitted: May 15, 2018
    Filed: August 28, 2018
    ____________
    Before SHEPHERD, MELLOY, and GRASZ, Circuit Judges.
    ____________
    GRASZ, Circuit Judge.
    -3-
    Two groups of petitioners ask this Court to review a 2017 order of the Federal
    Communications Commission (“FCC”) that alters the FCC’s regulations for business
    data services (“BDS”). One group, the “ILEC Petitioners,”1 challenges new price cap
    rates in the order. The second group, the “CLEC Petitioners,”2 challenges most of the
    other changes in the order, both on the adequacy of notice and on the merits. For the
    reasons discussed below, we grant the CLEC Petitioners’ petition in part, regarding
    notice. We deny the petitions in all other respects.
    I. Background
    A.    Business Data Services
    The term BDS generally refers to communications lines for businesses, which
    offer dedicated service with guaranteed performance and speed. BDS is currently
    1
    The ILEC Petitioners are Citizens Telecommunications Company of
    Minnesota, LLC and CenturyLink, Inc. The term “ILEC” refers to “Incumbent Local
    Exchange Carriers.” Local exchange carriers are companies that provide local
    telephone service or access. 
    47 U.S.C. § 153
    (32). The “incumbent” local exchange
    carriers are the carriers that held virtual monopolies in the provision of telephone
    service in their areas for many years before changes in law encouraged competition.
    2
    The CLEC Petitioners are: Ad Hoc Telecommunications Users Committee; BT
    Americas, Inc.; Granite Telecommunications, LLC; COMPTEL d/b/a INCOMPAS
    (“INCOMPAS”); Sprint Corp.; Windstream Services, LLC; Access Point, Inc.;
    Alpheus Communications, LLC; New Horizons Communications Corp.; and
    XChange Telecom, LLC. Several of these petitioners are “CLECs” or “Competitive
    Local Exchange Carriers,” while a few are BDS customers rather than any type of
    local exchange carrier. INCOMPAS is a national trade association representing
    competitive communications service providers and their supplier partners. We refer
    to the entire group as the CLEC Petitioners for ease of reference.
    -4-
    transitioning from being provided through phone line-based “TDM” services,3 which
    are heavily regulated, to being provided through packet-based “Ethernet” services,
    which are lightly regulated. Regulations limit prices on BDS in several ways,
    including imposing caps on aggregate prices (“price caps”). See WorldCom, Inc. v.
    F.C.C., 
    238 F.3d 449
    , 454 (D.C. Cir. 2001). Regulations also require certain
    providers to tariff these services, which essentially means to publish any changes in
    the prices they charge before the changes take effect. See 
    id.
    The services at issue in this case are two different subsets of BDS: (1) end user
    channel terminations (or “channel termination services”), which connect the main
    provider’s office to a customer’s building; and (2) dedicated “transport services,”
    which connect a provider’s offices to other network locations. Currently, some of the
    CLEC Petitioners compete for customers by purchasing BDS from the main providers
    in order to reach specific customers. A competitor uses one or both services
    depending on whether it has equipment in a particular office or connects its network
    to the main provider’s network at a different point.
    Prior to issuance of the order under review in this case (Business Data Services
    in an Internet Protocol Environment, 32 FCC Rcd. 3459 (2017) (the “2017 Order”)),
    the FCC had relied on a “temporary” formula for calculating the price caps on BDS.
    These price caps are generally subject to two adjustments: an annual increase to
    account for inflation; and an annual decrease to account for productivity in
    telecommunications that exceeds productivity in the general economy. The FCC
    refers to the annual decrease as the “X-factor.” In 2000, the FCC adopted a proposal
    that set temporary X-rates of 3.0% for 2000, 6.5% for 2001 through 2003, and a rate
    equivalent to the inflation rate pending the FCC revisiting the issue by 2005. Access
    3
    “TDM” refers to “time division multiplex,” which is how providers transmit
    information over phone lines.
    -5-
    Charge Reform, 15 FCC Rcd. 12962, 13025 ¶ 149 (2000). However, the FCC never
    revisited the issue until the 2017 Order.
    The FCC also avoided permanent rules for applying BDS price caps before the
    2017 Order. 2017 Order at ¶ 1. In 1999, the FCC sought to remove price caps on
    channel termination services and transport services in areas of the country with more
    competitive markets through what is known as the “Pricing Flexibility Order.” See
    generally Access Charge Reform, 14 FCC Rcd. 14221 (1999) (“Pricing Flexibility
    Order”). The Pricing Flexibility Order provided some immediate changes and also
    established two forms of broader relief available in metropolitan statistical areas
    (“MSAs”) for service providers that could prove a particular MSA met certain
    designated competitive thresholds. See WorldCom, Inc., 
    238 F.3d at
    454–55. In
    2002, AT&T4 petitioned the FCC to reconsider its Pricing Flexibility Order, alleging
    that the order was not fostering competitive entry and seeking a moratorium on
    further grants of pricing flexibility. See Special Access Rates for Price Cap Local
    Exchange Carriers, 20 FCC Rcd. 1994, ¶¶ 1–6 (2005). In 2005, the FCC rejected
    AT&T’s requests but sought comment on the BDS price cap regulations and on any
    appropriate interim relief. See 
    id.
     That 2005 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking started
    a proceeding that continued from January 2005 until the 2017 Order at issue in this
    case. 2017 Order at ¶ 1.
    B.    The 2016 Notice and the 2017 Order
    In 2016, the FCC issued the most recent Further Notice of Proposed
    Rulemaking regarding BDS price caps. See Business Data Services in an Internet
    Protocol Environment, 31 FCC Rcd. 4723 (2016) (the “2016 Notice”). The 2016
    4
    The 2002 version of AT&T was acquired by Southwestern Bell Company,
    which then rebranded as AT&T. Thus, the AT&T intervenor in this case does not
    necessarily share the views of the 2002 version of AT&T on BDS.
    -6-
    Notice “propos[ed] to end the traditional use of tariffs for BDS services and discard[]
    the traditional classification of ‘dominant’ and ‘nondominant’ carriers,” pairing this
    deregulation “with the use of tailored rules where competition does not exist.” Id. at
    ¶ 4. The 2016 Notice articulated “four fundamental principles” for the new proposed
    regulations. Id. “First, competition is best.” Id. at ¶ 5. “Second, the new regulatory
    framework should be technology-neutral.” Id. at ¶ 6. “Third, Commission actions
    should remove barriers that may be inhibiting the technology transitions.” Id. at ¶ 7.
    “Fourth, the Commission should construct regulation to meet not only today’s
    marketplace, but tomorrow’s as well.” Id. at ¶ 8.
    In the 2017 Order, the FCC began by analyzing competition in the market. It
    stated that its competition analysis was “informed by, but not limited to, traditional
    antitrust principles” and addressed “technological and market changes as well as
    trends within the communications industry, including the nature and rate of change.”
    2017 Order at ¶ 12. Based on data collected in the proceeding, it concluded there was
    reasonable competition, now or at least over the medium term, in TDM services with
    bandwidth above 45 Mbps,5 all transport services, and all Ethernet services. See id.
    at ¶¶ 16, 73–76. It also concluded that a competitor with nearby BDS facilities
    restrained prices for lower bandwidth TDM services in the short term and provided
    reasonable competition in three to five years. See id. at ¶¶ 13–15. The FCC further
    stated that “ex ante pricing regulation is of limited use—and often harmful—in a
    dynamic and increasingly competitive marketplace” and that “[w]e intend to apply ex
    ante regulation only where competition is expected to materially fail to ensure just
    and reasonable rates.” Id. at ¶¶ 4, 86.
    5
    Throughout the 2017 Order, the FCC referred to two types of lower bandwidth
    phone lines: “Digital Signal 1” or “DS1,” referring to a line with a data rate of
    approximately 1.5 Mbps; and “Digital Signal 3” or “DS3,” referring to a line with a
    data rate of approximately 45 Mbps. See 2016 Notice at ¶ 25 (defining those terms).
    -7-
    The FCC took three actions in light of these conclusions regarding competition.
    First, it continued forbearance from ex ante regulation6 of higher bandwidth TDM
    services and of all Ethernet services, emphasizing that packet-based
    telecommunications services remain subject to Title II regulations. Id. at ¶¶ 87–89.
    Second, it extended its forbearance from ex ante regulation to include TDM transport
    services. Id. at ¶¶ 90–93. Third, it established a Competitive Market Test for lower
    bandwidth TDM channel termination services. Id. at ¶¶ 94–171.
    When creating the Competitive Market Test, the FCC assessed what it believed
    would be the (1) relevant geographic area, (2) the relevant data, and (3) the
    appropriate level of competition. See id. On the first issue, it narrowed the relevant
    geographic area from MSAs to counties. See id. at ¶¶ 108–16. On the second issue,
    it used its “Form 477” broadband service availability data7 along with data collected
    in the rulemaking proceeding for the initial assessment of competitiveness, and it
    required reliance on the Form 477 data for later reassessments. See id. at ¶¶ 103–07.
    On the third issue, it concluded that a single competitor, even if merely within a half
    mile of a set of customers rather than directly servicing those customers, significantly
    affected prices such that the costs of price caps would exceed the benefits in that
    market. See id. at ¶¶ 117–29. Relatedly, the FCC also concluded in its competition
    analysis that a residential cable network could substitute for low-bandwidth BDS for
    some customers. See id. at ¶¶ 27–31.
    6
    “Ex ante regulation” refers to any regulation of prices in advance, including
    price caps.
    7
    The FCC requires all facilities-based broadband providers to report every
    census block where they offer broadband exceeding 200 kbps in either upload or
    download bandwidth speed. 2017 Order at ¶ 105. The FCC collects this data semi-
    annually and makes the data available to the public. Id.
    -8-
    Based on these conclusions, the FCC established two criteria for
    competitiveness. First, a business location is competitive if a competitive provider’s
    facilities are within half a mile. Id. at ¶ 132. Second, a business location is
    competitive if a cable provider’s facilities are within the same census block.8 Id. at
    ¶ 133.
    After deciding on its Competitive Market Test, the FCC engaged in data
    analysis to determine the thresholds for each of the criteria. Id. at ¶¶ 135–44. It
    examined what thresholds for the two criteria have the least risk of both
    overregulation on one hand and underregulation on the other. See id. The FCC then
    selected thresholds that were higher than any of its analytics demanded “out of an
    abundance of caution” and so “that counties [it] deregulate[s] will be predominantly
    competitive.” Id. at ¶¶ 141–42. Thus, it determined that a county is competitive if
    50% of the BDS customer locations within that county have a facilities-based
    competitor within half a mile (as opposed to a competitor who relies on ILECs in the
    area and lacks its own facilities nearby) or if 75% of the census blocks within that
    county have cable broadband service. See id. The FCC also directed the FCC’s
    Wireline Competition Bureau to retest non-competitive counties every three years to
    determine competitiveness. See id. at ¶¶ 145–52.
    For counties deemed non-competitive under the Competitive Market Test, the
    FCC left price cap regulation in place with some modifications. First, it declined to
    re-impose price caps in any counties where it had previously granted related relief
    under the Pricing Flexibility Order. Id. at ¶¶ 178–82. Second, it extended some
    8
    The FCC reasoned that a cable provider has incentive to invest in serving
    locations within a census block where it is already present. 2017 Order at ¶ 133. A
    census block is the smallest geographic measurement used by the United States
    Census Bureau for data collection, generally referring to “statistical areas bounded
    by visible features.” U.S. Census Bureau, Geographic Terms and Concepts - Block,
    https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/gtc/gtc_block.html.
    -9-
    limited pricing flexibility to all non-competitive counties. Id. at ¶¶ 183–86. Third,
    the FCC prohibited non-disclosure agreements (“NDAs”) in specified BDS contracts
    in non-competitive counties, to the extent the NDAs forbade or prevented disclosure
    of information to the FCC. Id. at ¶¶ 187–96. Finally, it set the X-factor for annual
    price cap adjustments to DS1 and DS3 end user channel terminations at 2%. Id. at
    ¶¶ 197–99.
    In addition to creating a Competitive Market Test, the FCC also removed the
    tariff (filing) requirement from a few services. It expanded its removal of the tariff
    requirement for BDS with higher bandwidth, extending that relief to all companies
    rather than just those companies that had successfully petitioned for such relief about
    a decade ago. Id. at ¶¶ 155–59. It also newly removed the tariff requirement for
    transport services and for any BDS within counties previously granted certain relief
    under the Pricing Flexibility Order. Id. at ¶¶ 160–65.
    After the FCC published the 2017 Order in the Federal Register, the respective
    petitioners sought review in different circuits. The FCC notified the Judicial Panel
    on Multidistrict Litigation of the multiple petitions for review, and the panel
    consolidated proceedings in this Court for review. The nature of the ILEC
    Petitioners’ and CLEC Petitioners’ challenges to the 2017 order were very different,
    leading several petitioners in each group to intervene in opposition to the relief
    sought by the other group.9
    9
    The following entities intervened to oppose the ILEC Petitioners: Ad Hoc
    Telecommunications Users Committee; BT Americas, Inc.; Granite
    Telecommunications, LLC; INCOMPAS; Sprint Corporation; and Windstream
    Services, LLC. CenturyLink, Inc., intervened along with non-petitioners AT&T
    Services, Inc., and USTelecom to oppose the CLEC Petitioners. Some stakeholders
    in the cable industry (NCTA-The Internet & Television Association and Comcast
    Corporation) also intervened to oppose the CLEC Petitioners.
    -10-
    II. Standard of Review
    On review of an agency order, we must “hold unlawful and set aside agency
    action, findings, and conclusions found to be . . . arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of
    discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with law.” 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2). An agency
    rule is arbitrary and capricious “if the agency has relied on factors which Congress
    has not intended it to consider, entirely failed to consider an important aspect of the
    problem, offered an explanation for its decision that runs counter to the evidence
    before the agency, or is so implausible that it could not be ascribed to a difference in
    view or the product of agency expertise.” Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n of U.S., Inc. v.
    State Farm Mut. Auto. Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43 (1983).
    “A court is not to ask whether a regulatory decision is the best one possible or
    even whether it is better than the alternatives.” FERC v. Elec. Power Supply Ass’n,
    
    136 S. Ct. 760
    , 782 (2016). Instead, we ask whether the agency “examine[d] the
    relevant data and articulate[d] a satisfactory explanation for its action including a
    ‘rational connection between the facts found and the choice made.’” Motor Vehicle
    Mfrs. Ass’n, 
    463 U.S. at 43
     (quoting Burlington Truck Lines, Inc. v. United States,
    
    371 U.S. 156
    , 168 (1962)). We cannot “supply a reasoned basis for the agency’s
    action that the agency itself has not given” but may “uphold a decision of less than
    ideal clarity if the agency’s path may reasonably be discerned.” 
    Id.
     (citations
    omitted).
    “[W]hen the resolution of the dispute involves primarily issues of fact and
    analysis of the relevant information requires a high level of technical expertise, we
    must defer to the informed discretion of the responsible federal agencies.” Minnesota
    Pub. Utils. Comm’n. v. F.C.C., 
    483 F.3d 570
    , 577 (8th Cir. 2007) (alteration in
    original) (quoting Cent. S. Dakota Co-op. Grazing Dist. v. Sec’y of U.S. Dep’t of
    Agric., 
    266 F.3d 889
    , 894–95 (8th Cir. 2001)). Our review is narrow in scope and we
    will not “substitute our judgment for that of the agency.” 
    Id.
     (quoting same).
    -11-
    If a petitioner challenges the agency’s compliance with the Administrative
    Procedure Act’s (“APA’s”) procedural requirements, then de novo review is required
    “because compliance ‘is not a matter that Congress has committed to the agency’s
    discretion.’” United States v. Brewer, 
    766 F.3d 884
    , 887–88 (8th Cir. 2014) (quoting
    Iowa League of Cities v. E.P.A., 
    711 F.3d 844
    , 872 (8th Cir. 2013)).
    III. Analysis
    The CLEC Petitioners’ arguments fit into five categories: (1) the adequacy of
    notice, (2) the ending of ex ante regulations for transport services, (3) the Competitive
    Market test, (4) the rules regarding Ethernet services, and (5) the Interim Wholesale
    Access Rule. The ILEC Petitioners’ arguments solely concern the X-factor. We
    address each of these issue categories in turn.
    A.    Notice
    The CLEC Petitioners advance three specific arguments as to lack of sufficient
    notice: (1) the 2017 Order was broadly deregulatory while the 2016 Notice requested
    comment on a heightened regulatory scheme; (2) they had no meaningful opportunity
    to analyze the specific criteria adopted in the 2017 Order; and (3) at minimum, they
    had no notice of the complete deregulation of transport services.
    The APA provides the following requirements for notice:
    (b) General notice of proposed rule making shall be published in the
    Federal Register, unless persons subject thereto are named and either
    personally served or otherwise have actual notice thereof in accordance
    with law. The notice shall include—
    (1) a statement of the time, place, and nature of public rule
    making proceedings;
    -12-
    (2) reference to the legal authority under which the rule is
    proposed; and
    (3) either the terms or substance of the proposed rule or a
    description of the subjects and issues involved.
    
    5 U.S.C. § 553
    . “[A]n agency’s notice is sufficient if it allows interested parties to
    offer ‘informed criticism and comments.’” Missouri Limestone Producers Ass’n, Inc.
    v. Browner, 
    165 F.3d 619
    , 622 (8th Cir. 1999) (quoting Northwest Airlines, Inc. v.
    Goldschmidt, 
    645 F.2d 1309
    , 1319 (8th Cir. 1981)).
    1.     Notice of a broadly deregulatory order
    The CLEC Petitioners complain that the 2016 Notice requested comment on
    a heightened regulatory scheme while the 2017 Order was broadly deregulatory. A
    somewhat Orwellian approach to proposing rules in the 2016 Notice creates much of
    the dispute here. One of the FCC’s stated goals was “large scale de-regulation,” but
    it requested comment on several suggestions that would have increased regulation.
    2016 Notice at ¶ 4; e.g., id. at ¶ 354. The FCC, whose composition changed in 2017,
    emphasized the stated goal in the 2017 Order and followed only the proposals in the
    2016 Notice that adhered to that stated goal. The CLEC Petitioners argue that we
    should vacate the 2017 Order because the 2016 Notice requested comment on a
    heightened regulatory scheme and that it was impossible for them to anticipate
    deregulation. We find it significant that the CLEC Petitioners base their argument
    here on their expectation that the FCC in 2017 would not follow through on its 2016
    stated goal.
    More specifically, the 2016 Notice proposed “large scale de-regulation” that
    “goes hand in hand with the use of tailored rules where competition does not exist.”
    2016 Notice at ¶ 4. It observed that “the data and our analysis suggests that
    competition is lacking in BDS at or below 50 Mbps in many circumstances” and
    requested comment on the issue. Id. at ¶ 271 & n.690. It stated that the Pricing
    -13-
    Flexibility Order’s “collocation test,” which assessed competitive equipment
    collocated with an ILEC’s equipment, (1) failed because it was “a poor proxy for
    predicting the entry of facilities-based competition,” (2) “retained unnecessary
    regulation in areas that were very likely to be competitive,” and (3) “deregulated over
    large areas where competition was unlikely to occur.” Id. at ¶ 275. The 2016 Notice
    requested comment on whether census blocks were an appropriate geographic area
    for a Competitive Market Test or whether a larger or more granular area was
    appropriate, strongly implying that MSAs were too broad by stating that “[o]ur goal
    is to learn from past experiences and to not repeat the errors of the 1999 pricing
    flexibility regime by granting relief too broadly to cover areas where competition is
    not present or unlikely to occur.” Id. at ¶¶ 289–90.
    The CLEC Petitioners necessarily argue at a high level of abstraction because
    their arguments are based on their own interpretation of the 2016 Notice. The CLEC
    Petitioners read these provisions in light of their understanding that the FCC, as
    composed in 2016, believed that the 1999 Pricing Flexibility Order was wrong and
    did not really mean to pursue large-scale deregulation.
    We reject their arguments because their reading of the 2016 Notice entails an
    interpretation whose basis is not present in the text. The 2016 Notice discussed how
    the prior test was both over-inclusive and under-inclusive, which implies shifting the
    rules in favor of a better-tailored deregulatory approach. The 2016 Notice’s only
    limits on new criteria for a Competitive Market Test were its disavowal of both the
    collocation test from the Pricing Flexibility Order and the MSA geographic area.
    2016 Notice at ¶¶ 275, 290. The CLEC Petitioners may be correct that the FCC, as
    composed in 2016, would have expanded the use of price caps and applied a stricter
    competitive market test favoring their use, but nothing in the 2016 Notice compelled
    the FCC to abandon “large scale de-regulation” in favor of that approach. From the
    2016 Notice’s plain text, the CLEC Petitioners had adequate notice of large scale
    deregulation.
    -14-
    2.     Notice of specific criteria
    The CLEC Petitioners argue that the criteria the FCC adopted in the
    Competitive Market Test were not proposed in the 2016 Notice. The FCC applied
    two criteria for the Competitive Market Test: (1) competitive providers within half
    a mile, or (2) competitive cable providers within the relevant census block. See 2017
    Order at ¶¶ 132–33. If the 2016 Notice “described in significant detail the factors that
    would animate a new standard,” and the 2017 Order used those factors, then the
    commenters had adequate notice of the final rule despite not knowing its final
    application of those factors. See United States Telecom Ass’n v. F.C.C., 
    825 F.3d 674
    , 735 (D.C. Cir. 2016).
    Broadly speaking, the 2017 Order followed the 2016 Notice’s framework for
    the new standard it adopted. As the 2016 Notice proposed, the 2017 Order set
    “objective criteria,” “subject[ing] markets determined competitive to minimal
    regulation,” and “subject[ing] relevant markets, determined non-competitive, to
    specific rules.” 2016 Notice at ¶ 270.
    The 2016 Notice’s request for comment described the type of criteria it was
    considering:
    On the criteria for the Competitive Market Test, we invite comment.
    Initially, we are proposing a test, which focuses on multiple factors,
    including bandwidth, different customer classes, business density, and
    the number of providers in areas consisting of census blocks where each
    block in the relevant market meets the specified criteria. As described
    above, the data and our analysis suggests that competition is lacking in
    BDS at or below 50 Mbps in many circumstances, and that competition
    is present in BDS above 50 Mbps in many circumstances. Such evidence
    will guide how the Commission uses product market characteristics in
    applying the Competitive Market Test to a relevant market. We seek
    comment on the appropriate factors to include in the test and, in
    -15-
    particular, the appropriate weight to attribute to the various factors in
    application of the test.
    2016 Notice at ¶ 271 (footnote omitted). The 2016 Notice then sought comment on
    many particular facets of these criteria categories, including (1) whether a 50 Mbps
    bandwidth demarcation was the correct demarcation, 
    id. at ¶ 285
    , (2) the number of
    competitors necessary for the area to be deemed competitive, 
    id. at ¶ 294
    , (3) whether
    a nearby cable company with DOCSIS 3.0 (a particular standard for sending high
    speed internet over cable wires) on its network counted as a competitor, 
    id.,
     and (4)
    whether a census block was the appropriate geographic area for the Competitive
    Market Test or whether the test should use a larger or more granular area, 
    id.
     at
    ¶¶ 287–91.
    At a broad level, the Competitive Market Test adopted in the 2017 Order
    addressed the multiple factors suggested in the 2016 Notice: “bandwidth, different
    customer classes, business density, and the number of providers in areas consisting
    of census blocks where each block in the relevant market meets the specified
    criteria.” 2016 Notice at ¶ 271. The Competitive Market Test assessed the number
    of providers in the area. See 2017 Order at ¶¶ 132–33. It also assessed bandwidth
    indirectly, rejecting the suggestion of a 50 Mbps demarcation but applying regulation
    to BDS at or below 45 Mbps.10 See 
    id.
     at ¶¶ 130–33. It narrowed the geographic
    area, but it rejected the suggestion of a census block area, finding that a county was
    a sufficiently granular area without creating administrative complications that arose
    with smaller units. 
    Id.
     at ¶¶ 108–16. The FCC completely rejected criteria based on
    customer classes or business density, reasoning “they are largely unnecessary to
    achieve our policy goals and, importantly, [] including them in a competitive market
    test would make it administratively unwieldy.” 
    Id.
     at ¶ 99 & n.305.
    10
    The 2017 Order demarcated higher and lower bandwidth at 45 Mbps rather
    than 50 Mbps because existing regulation ended there and because it found evidence
    in the record that services above a DS3 were competitive. See 2017 Order at ¶ 87.
    -16-
    At a more narrow level, both criteria in the Competitive Market Test adhered
    to the particularized requests for comment in the 2016 Notice. While not all of those
    particularized requests fell under the “Competitive Market Test” subheading of the
    2016 Notice, all of them were within the 2016 Notice.
    It is true that the first criterion in the 2017 Order (regarding nearby
    competitors) is not in the Competitive Market Test subsection of the 2016 Notice.
    Despite that omission, other subsections of the 2016 Notice found “that fiber-based
    competitive supply within at least half a mile generally has a material effect on prices
    of BDS with bandwidths of 50 Mbps or less, even in the presence of nearby
    UNE-based [relying on “unbundled network elements” from a major competitor] and
    HFC-based [“hybrid fiber-coaxial” or cable] competition.” 2016 Notice at ¶¶ 161,
    211. The 2016 Notice then requested comment on “how close competition must be
    to place material competitive pressure on supply at a given location.” 
    Id. at ¶ 215
    .
    That request for comment is precisely on point to the adopted criterion. The 2016
    Notice would have been better organized if it had placed that request for comment
    under the “Competitive Market Test” subsection. Nevertheless, because the FCC
    requested comment on the proximity of competitors, the failure to include that
    concept in all relevant subsections is not fatal to the notice afforded the final rule.
    We agree with our sister circuit that a significant difference exists between instances
    “where the [notice] expressly asked for comments on a particular issue” and where
    the notice mentioned an issue but “gave no indication that the agency was considering
    a different approach.” CSX Transp., Inc. v. Surface Transp. Bd., 
    584 F.3d 1076
    , 1081
    (D.C. Cir. 2009) (collecting cases). Because the 2016 Notice expressly asked for
    comments on this particular issue, the CLEC Petitioners had adequate notice of this
    criterion.
    The second criterion in the 2017 Order, regarding nearby cable companies, is
    in the 2016 Notice’s Competitive Market Test subsection. The 2016 Notice requested
    comment on whether “two facilities-based competitors” are sufficient for competition,
    -17-
    whether to weigh “competition from a cable company” differently than other
    competition, and whether it is “enough for a cable company to just have DOCSIS 3.0
    coverage over their HFC network in the area.” 2016 Notice at ¶ 294. After reviewing
    the comments, the FCC essentially answered those three questions with yes, no, and
    yes, respectively. 2017 Order at ¶¶ 29, 120–21, 133. The possibility that the FCC
    might have selected different answers in 2016 does not alter the conclusion that the
    CLEC Petitioners had notice of the range of alternatives being considered.
    For the foregoing reasons, the CLEC Petitioners had adequate notice of the
    adopted Competitive Market Test.
    3.     Notice of ending ex ante regulation of transport services
    The CLEC Petitioners’ third argument challenging the sufficiency of notice
    is that they had no notice of the complete deregulation of transport services. The
    CLEC Petitioners are correct that there is no notice of completely ending ex ante
    regulation of transport services in the 2016 Notice. The 2016 Notice proposed a
    Competitive Market Test for both channel termination services and transport services.
    2016 Notice at ¶ 278. The FCC argues that it gave adequate notice of the different
    treatment for transport services because the 2016 Notice stated that transport services
    are more competitive than channel termination services. 
    Id. at ¶ 281
    . We reject this
    argument because the 2016 Notice also proposed addressing the two services under
    the same regulations notwithstanding the difference in the very next paragraph. 
    Id. at ¶ 282
    . Nothing in the 2016 Notice requests comment on treating the two services
    differently. Yet, the 2017 Order treated transport services differently when it ended
    ex ante regulation of TDM transport services. See 2017 Order at ¶¶ 90–93. Thus, the
    FCC failed to provide adequate notice of its ending of ex ante regulation of transport
    services.
    -18-
    We reject the FCC’s suggestion that any notice of the subjects and issues
    involved is sufficient notice. The APA states that an agency must include “either the
    terms or substance of the proposed rule or a description of the subjects and issues
    involved.” 
    5 U.S.C. § 553
    (b)(3). We have stated that “[t]he notice should be
    sufficiently descriptive of the ‘subjects and issues involved’ so that interested parties
    may offer informed criticism and comments.” Northwest Airlines, 
    645 F.2d at 1319
    (quoting Ethyl Corp. v. E.P.A., 
    541 F.2d 1
    , 48 (D.C. Cir. 1976) (en banc)). As the
    Tenth Circuit has explained, § 553(c) constrains what level of notice satisfies
    § 553(b)(3) because the notice must be sufficient to “give[] interested persons an
    opportunity to participate in the rule making.” See Mkt. Synergy Grp., Inc. v. United
    States Dep’t of Labor, 
    885 F.3d 676
    , 681 (10th Cir. 2018) (quoting 
    5 U.S.C. § 553
    (c)).11 Because the FCC did not propose completely ending ex ante regulation
    of transport services, it did not allow for informed participation by interested parties
    in that portion of the rulemaking, and its notice was insufficient.
    4.     Prejudice
    The FCC alternatively argues that, even if the 2016 Notice did not satisfy its
    obligations under the APA, the FCC’s release of a draft of the 2017 Order three
    weeks before adoption made any procedural error harmless since the FCC was able
    to review and address comments on the draft 2017 Order. See 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
     (“due
    account shall be taken of the rule of prejudicial error”). We reject this argument
    11
    Other courts have focused this fair notice inquiry on the rule rather than the
    notice, asking whether the rule is a “logical outgrowth” of the proposal rather than
    whether the parties had fair notice of the final rule. See, e.g., CSX Transp., 584 F.3d
    at 1079. There is no meaningful difference between the two approaches. See Long
    Island Care at Home, Ltd. v. Coke, 
    551 U.S. 158
    , 174 (2007). Thus, we do not
    separately address the CLEC Petitioners’ arguments about whether the remainder of
    the final rule was a logical outgrowth because our discussion of notice addresses the
    substance of those arguments.
    -19-
    because we do not believe that the FCC providing a few weeks to review the 2017
    Order cured the deficient notice regarding transport services.
    The only authority the FCC cites in support of its harmless error argument
    discussed the adequacy of notice and did not address the timing issue here. See Nat’l
    Ass’n of Broadcasters v. F.C.C., 
    789 F.3d 165
    , 176–77 (D.C. Cir. 2015) (holding
    there was no prejudice where an FCC bureau released a staff-level notice of a
    proposed rule, and the FCC later adopted the rule without issuing its own notice).
    Nothing in that opinion suggests that a three-week notice of a complex issue is
    sufficient. See 
    id.
     We have not found any other authority supporting such a
    contention, and we are also not persuaded that a few weeks of review cured the
    deficient notice regarding transport services here. The APA’s procedural rules are
    designed to allow parties the opportunity for informed criticism and comments, see
    CSX Transp., 584 F.3d at 1083, and creating any exceptions to the procedural
    requirements would allow agencies to significantly alter the course of a proceeding
    without authorization. We hold that the early release of a draft order does not cure
    the harm from inadequate notice under these facts.
    Some intervenors raised a separate prejudice argument, insisting that the CLEC
    Petitioners failed to demonstrate prejudice because they only vaguely referenced
    additional “economic analysis” regarding transport services without explaining how
    such analysis would differ from their numerous submissions in the proceeding. While
    the intervenors may be correct that everything that needed to be said regarding
    transport services was said during the twelve years preceding the 2017 Order, the law
    regarding prejudice under the APA ensures procedural integrity. Losing the
    opportunity to dissuade an agency from adopting a particular rule is prejudicial. See
    CSX Transp., 584 F.3d at 1083 (“[T]hey were prejudiced by their inability to persuade
    the Board not to adopt the four-year rule in the first place, thus requiring them to
    litigate the issue in individual proceedings.”). In a slightly different context, this
    Court has applied similar reasoning, finding injury for purposes of standing when an
    -20-
    APA procedural right is violated. See Iowa League of Cities, 711 F.3d at 870–871
    (violation of a procedural right constitutes injury in fact where the procedure is
    designed to protect some threatened concrete interest, including the ability to meet
    one’s regulatory obligations). Requiring more than a procedural violation of the
    notice requirement in order to find prejudice would risk virtually repealing the APA’s
    procedural requirements. See Sprint Corp. v. F.C.C., 
    315 F.3d 369
    , 376–77 (D.C.
    Cir. 2003).
    It may be true that the numerous comments received in the proceeding already
    discussed all relevant aspects of transport services. Other parties’ comments may
    have raised the prospect of treating transport services differently, including the
    decision adopted in the 2017 Order, and the CLEC Petitioners may have responded
    to those comments. These comments, however, would not cure inadequate notice.
    Agencies “cannot bootstrap notice from a comment.” Shell Oil Co. v. E.P.A., 
    950 F.2d 741
    , 760 (D.C. Cir. 1991) (quoting Small Ref. Lead Phase-Down Task Force v.
    U.S. E.P.A., 
    705 F.2d 506
    , 549 (D.C. Cir. 1983)). The APA requires interested
    parties wishing to play a role in the rulemaking process to comment on the agency’s
    proposals, not on other interested parties’ proposals. We cannot divine whether the
    CLEC Petitioners have any additional arguments against ending ex ante regulation
    of transport services, but we believe they were prejudiced because any chance to
    make their case did not come from the FCC’s notice.
    5.     Conclusion regarding the adequacy of notice
    We grant the petitions of the CLEC Petitioners on the notice issue, in part,
    vacating solely the portions of the final rule affecting TDM transport services and
    remanding them to the FCC for further proceedings. We otherwise deny the petitions
    of the CLEC Petitioners on the remainder of the notice issue.
    -21-
    B.    Ex Ante Regulations for Transport Services
    The CLEC Petitioners also challenged the merits of the 2017 Order’s rules
    regarding ex ante regulations for transport services. Because we hold that the FCC
    provided inadequate notice of this issue, and we are remanding it on that basis, we do
    not need to reach this argument.
    C.    The Competitive Market Test
    The CLEC Petitioners challenge the economic theory behind the Competitive
    Market Test, the respective merits of the criteria in the test, the reasonableness of
    finding duopolies competitive under the test, and the adequacy of the cost-benefit
    analysis in the test. We address each of those challenges in turn.
    1.     Economic theory
    The FCC did not assess the ILECs’ market power before granting regulatory
    relief, and the CLEC Petitioners insist that this was an error. The argument presumes
    the FCC is bound to apply the traditional market power framework from the
    guidelines for horizontal mergers issued by the Federal Trade Commission and the
    U.S. Department of Justice (the “Horizontal Merger Guidelines”). The CLEC
    Petitioners are correct that the FCC has applied that framework in other orders in
    other contexts, such as Petition of Qwest Corp. for Forbearance Pursuant to 
    47 U.S.C. § 160
    (c) in the Phoenix, Arizona Metro. Statistical Area, 25 FCC Rcd. 8622
    (2010) (the “Qwest/Phoenix unbundling adjudication”), but nothing indicates the
    FCC was bound to extend that framework to the BDS context. The Pricing Flexibility
    Order specifically rejected the traditional market power framework in the BDS
    context, finding that the benefits of regulatory relief outweighed any costs of granting
    relief while an incumbent still had some market power, see Pricing Flexibility Order
    -22-
    at ¶¶ 90–91, and there is no evidence in the record that the FCC adopted another
    economic rule in the BDS context until the 2017 Order.
    Perhaps recognizing this problem, the CLEC Petitioners also advocate a
    finding that the FCC adopted the traditional market power framework since it cited
    to the Horizontal Merger Guidelines in the 2017 Order. The FCC relies on its overall
    disavowal of traditional antitrust principles in the 2017 Order, observing that it was
    only informed by those principles on a limited basis and did not adopt them
    completely. The CLEC Petitioners question whether that disavowal was effective
    based on citations in the 2017 Order to the Horizontal Merger Guidelines.
    The CLEC Petitioners’ attempts to impose the Horizontal Merger Guidelines
    on the 2017 Order ignore the portions of the 2017 Order that rejected the traditional
    market power framework. The FCC criticized the industry concentration measures
    of a traditional market power framework because, viewed in isolation, they are
    “largely poor indicators of whether market conditions exist that will constrain
    business data services prices, and overstate the competitive effects of concentration.”
    2017 Order at ¶ 66. The FCC offered three reasons for this conclusion: (1) nearby
    facilities can “expand [their] presence to timely reach a customer,” (2) a competitor
    does not need to be physically serving a location to act as a competitive constraint on
    the market, and (3) concentration metrics largely reflect power in declining “legacy”
    TDM services. 
    Id. at ¶ 67
    .
    The CLEC Petitioners advance three arguments against the FCC’s approach,
    but none of them are persuasive.
    First, the CLEC Petitioners accuse the FCC of wholly disregarding market
    power after the FCC dismissed the relevance of market concentration and the
    traditional market power framework. This accusation is incorrect because the FCC
    addressed two aspects of market power: deciding that no market power existed in
    -23-
    Ethernet services, see 
    id. at ¶ 67
    , and concluding that ILEC market power in TDM
    services had been largely eliminated and was declining where it remained, see 
    id. at ¶ 84
    .
    Second, the CLEC Petitioners argue that the FCC’s own expert report
    undermined its conclusions. The report stated that ILECs charge higher prices for
    lower bandwidth TDM BDS in areas without a competitor, reflecting use of market
    power. Importantly, this conclusion from the report did not survive peer review. See
    
    id. at ¶ 74
    . The problem with the CLEC Petitioners’ argument, as well as with
    drawing definitive conclusions from the expert report, is that the FCC recognized
    different fixed costs in serving different customers may be causing the increased
    prices in certain areas. See 
    id.
     at ¶ 75 & n.243. The FCC’s expert report was unable
    to completely account for this potential alternate cause for high prices and thus a
    causal connection could not be established. See 
    id.
    Finally, the CLEC Petitioners accuse the FCC of “not even attempt[ing] to
    show that its ‘nearby potential competitors’ currently drive prices to ‘reasonably
    competitive’ levels, or will ever do so in the near term.” This accusation wrongly
    presumes that the FCC needed to find competition in the short term. If the FCC
    chose to follow a traditional market power framework, then it would need to look to
    short term results. Under the public interest balancing that the FCC applied, however,
    it could weigh competition in the medium term, meaning that the omission of short
    term assessments is not fatal to its analysis.
    In sum, the CLEC Petitioners offer no persuasive reason to convert mere
    citations to the Horizontal Merger Guidelines into wholesale adoption of an economic
    theory that the FCC explicitly rejected, especially in light of the multiple reasoned
    -24-
    rejections of both the CLEC Petitioners’ economic theory and their evidence.12 Thus,
    the FCC was not bound to apply the traditional market power framework, either by
    past orders or by partial use of the Horizontal Merger Guidelines. We hold that the
    FCC applied a permissible economic theory for its Competitive Market Test.
    2.     Reasonableness of the first criterion of the Competitive Market Test
    The first criterion of the Competitive Market Test stated that a business
    location is competitive if a competitive provider’s facilities are within half a mile.
    2017 Order at ¶ 132. The dispute here is whether the evidence shows that the CLEC
    Petitioners cannot economically build out to low bandwidth customers in areas
    deemed competitive by the Competitive Market Test. The FCC did not believe the
    CLEC Petitioners’ evidence, and the CLEC Petitioners protest that the evidence
    compels a finding in their favor.
    We note that the FCC made several findings in support of its conclusions. The
    FCC observed in the 2017 Order that most of the buildings at issue are far closer to
    competitive fiber than half a mile, as the average distance between buildings served
    by ILEC BDS and a competitive fiber line is 364 feet. 
    Id. at ¶ 42
    . In addition, half
    of these buildings are within 88 feet of competitive fiber, and the next quarter are
    within 456 feet, leaving only the last quarter of buildings at issue in the Competitive
    Market Test approaching a half mile distance. See 
    id.
     The FCC also cited evidence
    12
    The Third Circuit case cited by the CLEC Petitioners is not on point. It
    involved an order where the FCC applied the Horizontal Merger Guidelines for local
    television ownership and a completely different economic theory for local radio
    ownership that contradicted the Horizontal Merger Guidelines without explaining
    why it adopted two different economic theories to assess ownership limits in the same
    Order. See Prometheus v. F.C.C., 
    373 F.3d 372
    , 433 (3d Cir. 2007). The 2017 Order
    did not rely on two contrary economic theories and thus did not suffer from the same
    defect found in Prometheus.
    -25-
    that some competitors will build as far as a mile out, although it noted that these
    competitors are an exception to the general trend. See 
    id.
     at ¶ 41 & n.136. The FCC
    believed that these nearby networks exist because competitive providers build their
    fiber rings so that they can market to multiple customers near a lateral line,
    aggregating demand for a build out. 
    Id. at ¶ 42, 54
    , 119 n.363. The FCC also
    predicted that cable’s aggressive build outs since the collection of data in 2013 had
    likely brought most of the locations that were within half a mile of competition in
    2013 within a quarter mile of competition in 2017. See 
    id. at ¶ 43
    . The FCC argues
    that the CLEC Petitioners’ studies inflate costs by selecting the most expensive build
    (entirely underground lines), presuming a separate lateral line for each individual low
    bandwidth customer, and treating the main fiber ring as part of the cost of reaching
    new customers rather than as an existing “sunk” cost near a potential new customer.13
    The CLEC Petitioners focus on evidence about what conditions justify build-
    outs while dismissing the concept of building circuitous routes as the exception rather
    than the rule. They argue that their networks are near low-bandwidth customers
    because they built lines near high-bandwidth customers in the same area, while the
    FCC argues that the CLEC Petitioners’ networks are near low-bandwidth customers
    because they build networks to facilitate lower cost expansion to low-bandwidth
    customers. It is difficult to parse the evidence because the costs of building to a low
    bandwidth customer rely heavily on what costs count as sunk costs and on how
    expensive of a build-out each company performs. The evidence in support of both
    arguments is credible. As a result, there is no reason the FCC was obligated to favor
    the CLEC Petitioners’ interpretation of the evidence over the interpretation it
    adopted, and the FCC was not arbitrary and capricious in adoption of its first
    criterion.
    13
    The FCC refers to fixed costs already incurred before serving a new customer
    as “sunk” costs in wireline telecommunications. 2017 Order at ¶ 120 & nn.370–71.
    -26-
    3.     Reasonableness of the second criterion of the Competitive Market
    Test
    The second criterion of the Competitive Market Test stated that a business
    location is competitive if a cable provider’s facilities are within the same census
    block. 2017 Order at ¶ 133. The CLEC Petitioners argue that this criterion is wrong
    because cable is not in the BDS market and is generally not building fiber BDS
    connections to low bandwidth areas.
    The FCC freely conceded in the 2017 Order that Ethernet over Hybrid Fiber-
    Coaxial (“EoHFC”) (cable’s symmetrical connection that sometimes has performance
    guarantees) and cable’s best efforts network (cable’s asymmetrical residential
    connection without performance guarantees) are not in the same market as BDS
    because they are not perfect substitutes. 
    Id.
     at ¶¶ 27–31. The FCC also observed,
    however, that businesses substitute EoHFC and best efforts service for BDS anyway
    at lower bandwidths, where they are willing to sacrifice some of the service
    guarantees of BDS for a lower price. See 
    id.
     Thus, it concluded that cable companies
    are building fiber connections to target high-bandwidth locations while using their
    lower cost options to target low-bandwidth locations. See 
    id.
     at ¶¶ 27–31, 55–62.
    The CLEC Petitioners correctly characterize cable’s relationship to BDS, but
    nothing in their arguments impugns the FCC’s analysis. As the intervening cable
    stakeholders observed, the fact that their services are not the same as BDS does not
    undermine the other fact that cable services are increasingly functioning as substitutes
    for BDS anyway. See 
    id.
     Thus, in view of the FCC’s entire analysis rather than the
    portions selectively quoted by the CLEC Petitioners, the FCC was not arbitrary and
    capricious in adoption of its second criterion.
    -27-
    4.     Reasonableness of finding duopolies competitive
    The CLEC Petitioners protest that duopolies (markets with only two
    competitors) have anticompetitive effects and that a Competitive Market Test cannot
    reasonably produce duopolies. As a procedural matter, they again cite the
    Qwest/Phoenix unbundling adjudication, arguing that the FCC was compelled to
    disfavor duopolies in this context based on its prior statements in another context.
    This is wrong both because the Qwest/Phoenix unbundling adjudication was focused
    on a particular market at a particular time and because, by its own terms, it has no
    binding effect on this BDS proceeding. Even if the Qwest/Phoenix unbundling
    adjudication were somehow binding, it did not create any bright line rule about when
    duopolies are competitive. 2017 Order at ¶ 121. Thus, the FCC was not compelled
    to agree with the CLEC Petitioners that the Competitive Market Test cannot
    reasonably produce duopolies.
    On the merits, the problem with the CLEC Petitioners’ duopoly argument is
    that it presumes their conclusion about high incremental costs. The FCC observed
    that the sunk costs to reach an area are high while the incremental costs of supplying
    new customers are low, causing ILECs to restrict prices to those low incremental
    costs when at least one competitor has spent the sunk costs. 
    Id. at ¶ 120
    . As a result,
    it concluded that duopolies can sufficiently increase competition to make regulation
    unnecessary. The CLEC Petitioners may reasonably disagree with the FCC on what
    the evidence shows regarding incremental costs, but their disagreement is no basis for
    finding the FCC’s interpretation of a conflicting record to be arbitrary and capricious.
    Furthermore, even if the FCC misinterpreted the evidence on incremental costs,
    it receives deference when it predicts what will happen in the market in the future.
    “[J]udicial deference to agency action is ‘especially important’ when [an] agency’s
    judgments are ‘predictive.’” Southwestern Bell Tel. Co. v. F.C.C., 
    153 F.3d 523
    , 547
    (8th Cir. 1998) (quoting City of St. Louis v. Dep’t of Transp., 
    936 F.2d 1528
    , 1534
    -28-
    (8th Cir. 1991)). The FCC explained in the 2017 Order that it relied on the
    Competitive Market Test and the related market data to predict what will happen in
    the market. 2017 Order at ¶ 124. The FCC also cited sufficient evidence to justify
    removing ex ante regulation in a market with two competitors. Regardless of whether
    its predictions based on uncertain data prove true, the FCC is not acting arbitrarily
    and capriciously when it makes such predictions in choosing how to regulate the
    market under its jurisdiction.
    5.     Cost-benefit analysis
    The CLEC Petitioners further argue that the FCC’s cost-benefit analysis
    supporting the 2017 Order failed to quantify the costs or measure them against the
    benefits. The CLEC Petitioners seemingly shift their argument in their reply brief,
    focusing on undervaluation of the benefits and alleging overvaluation of costs.
    Although this Court has not elaborated on the appropriate standard of review for
    challenges to an agencies’ economic calculations, the D.C. Circuit has deferred to
    agencies, allowing them to “arrive at a cost figure within a broad zone of reasonable
    estimate.” Nat’l Ass’n of Home Builders v. E.P.A., 
    682 F.3d 1032
    , 1040 (D.C. Cir.
    2012) (quoting Nat’l Wildlife Fed’n v. E.P.A., 
    286 F.3d 554
    , 563 (D.C. Cir. 2002)).
    Under this deferential review, an agency need not quantify all costs “with rigorous
    exactitude,” but it must consider them all. See GTE Serv. Corp. v. F.C.C., 
    782 F.2d 263
    , 273 (D.C. Cir. 1986). We agree with this approach.
    The problem with the CLEC Petitioners’ argument is that it presumes that only
    price caps produce affordable rates, while the FCC found that competition would
    drive prices to competitive levels. 2017 Order at ¶ 102. The FCC agreed that the
    benefits of price caps outweighed the costs in areas with few competitive alternatives,
    which is why it adopted a Competitive Market Test. See id. at ¶ 101. It further
    explained that BDS has unique characteristics that make price cap regulations highly
    unlikely to be accurate measures of the correct price in a competitive market.
    -29-
    Specifically, the FCC explained BDS has “high uncertainty due to frequent and often
    large unforeseen changes in both customer demand for services and network
    technologies that are hard to anticipate and hedge against in contracts with
    customers,” 2017 Order at ¶ 127, “a complex set of products and services, which are
    tailored to individual buyers,” id., as well as “costs of provision that vary
    substantially across different customer-provider combinations,” id., and “large
    irreversible sunk-cost investments that a provider is required to make before offering
    service,” id. Reasonable minds could disagree with the FCC’s cost-benefit analysis,
    but there is nothing unreasonable about its conclusions, as it considered all of the
    relevant factors. Thus, the FCC was not arbitrary and capricious in its cost-benefit
    analysis.
    6.     Conclusions regarding challenges to the Competitive Market Test
    We recognize that the relevant data presents radically different pictures of the
    competitiveness of the market depending on the economic theory applied and the
    weight given to conflicting pieces of evidence. But the FCC may rationally choose
    which evidence to believe among conflicting evidence in its proceedings, especially
    when predicting what will happen in the markets under its jurisdiction. Thus, we
    deny the petitions for review as to the Competitive Market Test because the FCC’s
    resolution of competing evidence was not arbitrary and capricious.14
    14
    Because we find that the removal of ex ante regulation through a Competitive
    Market Test was reasonable without reference to ex post regulation, we need not
    further address whether the ex post regulation retained in the 2017 Order would save
    an unreasonable rule.
    -30-
    D.    Ethernet Services
    The CLEC Petitioners argue the FCC unreasonably excluded low bandwidth
    Ethernet BDS from price caps. A brief discussion of the 2016 Notice is necessary
    before reaching the arguments here.
    Although the 2016 Notice stated that it wanted a “technology and provider
    neutral” framework, implicitly treating both Ethernet and TDM services the same, it
    emphasized several times that it would still, as necessary, treat TDM services
    differently than Ethernet services “based on past experience and historical practice.”
    2016 Notice at ¶¶ 270 & n.689, 507. The 2016 Notice requested comment on how
    previous grants of forbearance would impact any regulatory approach. Id. at ¶ 311.
    While it requested comment on extending some type of rate regulation to Ethernet
    BDS in non-competitive areas, it proposed that the rate regulation would not be price
    caps but instead would be an anchor or benchmark pricing system based on the price
    caps for TDM BDS. Id. at ¶¶ 352–54. It noted that price caps incurred disadvantages
    that anchor or benchmark pricing did not, and it sought commentary on using anchor
    or benchmark pricing. Id. at ¶ 425. Finally, it proposed expanding the tariff
    forbearance for Ethernet BDS from the companies that had previously petitioned for
    such forbearance to all companies offering Ethernet BDS. Id. at ¶ 434. The 2016
    Notice suggested applying price caps to Ethernet BDS only in a request for comment
    on whether to allow services to voluntarily include Ethernet BDS in their aggregate
    price caps, although it did also request comment on a Verizon/INCOMPAS letter
    suggesting the mandatory use of price caps in non-competitive areas. See id. at
    ¶¶ 426, 512.
    In view of the 2016 Notice, the question facing the FCC and commenters was
    how to create a technology neutral framework that “take[s] account of legitimate
    differences” between technologies. Id. at ¶ 507. The CLEC Petitioners’ arguments
    on the rule are flawed for two reasons: they overstate the importance of a mistake in
    -31-
    the 2017 Order, and they mischaracterize the 2016 Notice as proposing eliminating
    the distinction between TDM and Ethernet BDS.
    The first flaw in the CLEC Petitioners’ argument is that, while they are correct
    the 2017 Order misstated their comments, that error does not compromise the FCC’s
    conclusions regarding low-bandwidth Ethernet. The FCC stated that the CLEC
    Petitioners would only extend their fiber networks, not their TDM networks, in low
    bandwidth situations. 2017 Order at ¶ 88. The record portions cited in ¶ 88 of the
    2017 Order show that the CLEC Petitioners would not extend any network in low
    bandwidth situations. See id. Nevertheless, the CLEC Petitioners overstate the
    importance of that error. The FCC broadly found increasing revenue for cable and
    CLECs and decreasing prices in BDS even at low bandwidths. Id. at ¶¶ 68–73. It
    also found that the increased revenue combined with reduced sunk costs made
    Ethernet BDS competitive, especially because ILECs needed to incur the same sunk
    costs. Id. at ¶ 83. In view of the competition that the FCC found on the record, it was
    not unreasonable for the FCC to conclude both that entrants are better placed to win
    customers with Ethernet BDS than they would be if the market only included TDM
    BDS and that regulation would dissuade competitors from continuing with the rapid
    growth of Ethernet BDS. See id. at ¶ 88. As we observed in our discussion of the
    Competitive Market Test, there is conflicting evidence about whether competitors are
    building fiber networks to reach low bandwidth customers, and there is no reason the
    FCC was obligated to favor the CLEC Petitioners’ interpretation of the evidence over
    the interpretation it adopted. The FCC’s footnote regarding the CLEC Petitioners
    was errant, but it was also not essential to the economic analysis.
    The second flaw in the CLEC Petitioners’ argument is that it fails to
    acknowledge that the 2016 Notice proposed that Ethernet services not be subjected
    to tariffs or price caps. 2016 Notice at ¶¶ 420–26. Likely as a result, the CLEC
    Petitioners do not discuss the benchmarking versus price cap nuance contained in the
    2016 Notice. The statement in the CLEC Petitioners’ brief that “the Commission
    -32-
    proceeded to create the exact regulatory disparity that it rejected a year before” is
    false because the 2016 Notice proposed regulatory disparity. The FCC followed the
    economic analysis that it noted in its 2016 Notice, concluding that it is easier to enter
    the market using Ethernet BDS because of the higher profits relative to sunk costs and
    the need for both ILECs and competitors to build out a fiber network. The CLEC
    Petitioners simply misread the 2016 Notice.
    While the CLEC Petitioners may have some reasonable arguments against
    treating Ethernet services differently, there is still no basis here for this Court to
    conclude that the FCC acted arbitrarily and capriciously in its choice of whether to
    exclude Ethernet services from price caps.15
    E.    The Interim Wholesale Access Rule
    The CLEC Petitioners argue the FCC unreasonably declined to extend the
    Interim Wholesale Access Rule to BDS. That rule requires ILECs to continue selling
    wholesale access to certain services when they discontinue a TDM input in favor of
    newer technology. We agree with the FCC that its elimination of the Interim
    Wholesale Access Rule moots the issue of whether the FCC unreasonably declined
    to extend that rule in this context. We also decline the CLEC Petitioners’ invitation
    to adopt their characterization of the relevant “community” in 
    47 U.S.C. § 214
    (a)
    because the argument invites proxy review of an order not before us.
    15
    Because we find the FCC’s actions regarding ex ante regulation reasonable
    without reference to ex post regulation, we need not further address whether ex post
    regulation would save an unreasonable rule.
    -33-
    F.    The “X-factor”
    We next consider the ILEC Petitioners’ sole challenge, which concerns the
    FCC’s decision to set the “X-factor” annual price cap reduction at 2.0%. The FCC
    explained in its 2017 Order that it believed the 2.0% rate, which was based on the
    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Capital, Labor, Energy, Materials, and Services data
    for the broadcasting and telecommunications industries (“KLEMS (Broadcasting and
    Telecommunications)” or “KLEMS”) data set, was likely too high, but that it did not
    have information in the record from which it could quantify either the magnitude or
    direction of bias. 2017 Order at ¶¶ 231, 236.
    The ILEC Petitioners attack this rationale on two related grounds. First, they
    argue that the FCC failed to account for the overstated productivity in the KLEMS
    data set despite relevant information in the record that would have enabled such an
    adjustment. The ILEC Petitioners also fault the FCC for failing to adjust the KLEMS
    data set downward for the effect of declining utilization of TDM services on ILECs’
    unit costs. After carefully considering these arguments and the underlying record, we
    do not find that the FCC made an arbitrary or capricious decision.
    We acknowledge the 2017 Order is not a model of clarity as it relates to the X-
    factor analysis. Nevertheless, a court may “uphold a decision of less than ideal clarity
    if the agency’s path may reasonably be discerned.” Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n, 
    463 U.S. at 43
     (quoting Bowman Transp., Inc. v. Arkansas-Best Freight Sys., Inc., 
    419 U.S. 281
    , 286 (1974)).
    The best reading of this section of the 2017 Order is that the FCC rejected all
    of the data offered to it for adjusting the KLEMS data set as insufficiently precise.
    It acknowledged that the X-factor could reasonably be as low as 1.7%, which is the
    percentage proposed by CenturyLink’s study for 2006–2014, the approximate
    midpoint time period in the FCC’s data. 2017 Order at ¶¶ 224–25, 235. The FCC
    -34-
    then concluded that it would prefer a higher X-factor based on (1) a mistaken
    comment about lack of studies with lower numbers16 and (2) another study based on
    the KLEMS data set alone that favored a slightly higher X-factor. 
    Id. at ¶ 235
    .
    We see no reason in the record why the FCC would be compelled to adjust the
    KLEMS data set, especially in light of the conflicting evidence on what sort of
    adjustment was appropriate. As some intervenors observed, the CLECs offered
    significant evidence that the KLEMS data set understates the productivity level
    because the broadcasting industry has declining productivity while the
    telecommunications industry has increasing productivity, and the KLEMS data set
    included both industries. Also, the FCC found some evidence that cost-sharing
    between TDM and Ethernet services was increasing productivity for both, leaving it
    uncertain whether any adjustment to the KLEMS data set was necessary even when
    price caps are applied to TDM services alone. 
    Id.
     at ¶¶ 227–30. All of these reasons
    support the FCC’s decision not to adjust the KLEMS data set and to reach the
    resulting 2.0% X-factor from an unadjusted KLEMS data set.
    16
    We are troubled by the FCC’s statement in the 2017 Order that “[n]o party has
    submitted an X-factor study or similar data-based analysis purporting to show that the
    X-factor should be lower than 2.0 percent.” CenturyLink submitted just such a study.
    2017 Order at ¶ 235 n.595. The FCC cited the relevant study for other propositions
    in the 2017 Order, indicating that it was aware of the study. See, e.g., 
    id.
     at ¶ 206
    n.534. It also expressed multiple reasons for rejecting any adjustment in light of the
    conflicting evidence. If the FCC did not accept the credibility of the proposed
    adjustment data before it, any adjustment based on that data would be arbitrary and
    capricious. See Sierra Club v. E.P.A., 
    884 F.3d 1185
    , 1195 (D.C. Cir. 2018) (holding
    that the EPA was arbitrary and capricious when it based a conclusion on data it found
    unreliable). Thus, because the FCC reasonably found any adjustment to the KLEMS
    data set inappropriate, we are not convinced that its mistaken statement was anything
    more than a failure to expressly acknowledge all of the adjustment options it was
    rejecting.
    -35-
    The ILEC Petitioners’ argument that the FCC failed to account for relevant
    evidence showing overstated productivity in the KLEMS data set is flawed because
    the FCC found conflicting evidence both as to whether the KLEMS data set
    overstated productivity and, if so, the magnitude of that overstatement. “When neither
    of two suggested adjustments applied to inaccurate data is completely satisfactory[,]
    a rate-making body may fashion its own adjustments within reasonable limits.”
    United Parcel Serv., Inc. v. U.S. Postal Serv., 
    184 F.3d 827
    , 839 (D.C. Cir. 1999)
    (quoting Ass’n of Am. Publishers, Inc. v. Governors of U. S. Postal Serv., 
    485 F.2d 768
    , 773 (D.C. Cir. 1973)). The FCC declined to impose any adjustment because it
    determined it needed an extensive set of company specific data and inputs to
    accurately resolve the conflicting evidence. 2017 Order at ¶ 231. While it may have
    some of that data in the record, the FCC was not unreasonable in declining to use the
    limited data at hand when it had doubts about the reliability of that data.
    The ILEC Petitioners’ argument that evidence of declining utilization of TDM
    services on ILECs’ unit costs required a downward adjustment to the KLEMS data
    set is wrong for two reasons. First, the FCC found conflicting evidence on the effect
    of declining utilization on ILECs’ unit costs, and therefore was not required to accept
    the ILEC Petitioners’ favored data. 
    Id.
     at ¶¶ 226–30. If cost sharing was increasing
    productivity, as some evidence indicated, then the FCC reasonably declined to adjust
    the KLEMS data set downward. Second, contrary to the ILEC Petitioners’ assertion,
    the FCC did take account of the declining utilization when selecting an X-factor
    within its proposed range. 
    Id.
     at ¶¶ 233–36. While it may have been preferable for
    the FCC to adjust the proposed range of X-factors rather than the selection within the
    range, the FCC was not required to account for declining utilization at all. The FCC
    reasonably declined to adjust the KLEMS data set considering the limited and
    potentially unreliable data at hand.
    -36-
    While the FCC’s analysis regarding the X-factor was not a model of clarity, we
    conclude that the FCC was not arbitrary and capricious in declining to adjust the
    KLEMS data set in its selection of a new X-factor.
    IV. Conclusion
    We grant the CLEC Petitioners’ petitions, in part, vacating the portions of the
    final rule affecting TDM transport services and remanding that issue alone to the FCC
    for further proceedings. We deny the petitions for review on all other issues.
    ______________________________
    -37-
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 17-2296

Filed Date: 8/28/2018

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 8/28/2018

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