Christopher Spreitz v. Charles Ryan , 916 F.3d 1262 ( 2019 )


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  •                   FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    CHRISTOPHER J. SPREITZ,                No. 09-99006
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    D.C. No.
    v.                    4:02-CV-00121-JMR
    CHARLES L. RYAN, Warden,
    Respondent-Appellee.                OPINION
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Arizona
    John M. Roll, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued July 11, 2013
    Submitted March 4, 2019
    San Francisco, California
    Filed March 4, 2019
    Before: Richard A. Paez, Marsha S. Berzon,
    and Richard C. Tallman, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge Paez;
    Dissent by Judge Tallman
    2                        SPREITZ V. RYAN
    SUMMARY *
    Habeas Corpus / Death Penalty
    The panel reversed the district court’s denial of habeas
    corpus relief with respect to Christopher J. Spreitz’s death
    sentence, and remanded, in a case in which Spreitz argued
    that the Arizona Supreme Court violated Eddings v.
    Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
     (1982), by refusing to consider, as
    a matter of law, mitigating evidence of Spreitz’s
    longstanding alcohol and substance abuse on the ground that
    he did not establish a causal connection between this
    mitigating evidence and the crime.
    The panel held that the district court erred in concluding
    that Spreitz’s claim that the Arizona Supreme Court violated
    Eddings is procedurally defaulted. The panel explained that
    the first opportunity Spreitz had to raise that claim was
    before the post-conviction-relief (PCR) court, at which time
    he did so.
    Because the decision of the PCR court – which first
    declared the claim waived, but proceeded to adjudicate the
    claim on the merits – was contrary to clearly established
    Supreme Court precedent, the panel accorded that decision
    no deference and reviewed Spreitz’s Eddings claim de novo.
    The panel concluded that the Arizona Supreme Court
    violated Eddings by impermissibly requiring that Spreitz
    establish a causal connection between his longstanding
    substance abuse and the murder before considering and
    *
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It
    has been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                       3
    weighing the evidence as a nonstatutory mitigating factor.
    The panel concluded that the error was not harmless.
    The panel affirmed the district court’s judgment denying
    relief with respect to Spreitz’s conviction in a concurrently
    filed memorandum disposition.
    Dissenting, Judge Tallman wrote that the record does not
    establish that either the sentencing court or the Arizona
    Supreme Court unconstitutionally refused to consider
    relevant mitigating evidence; and that even if the Arizona
    courts did violate Eddings, Spreitz cannot show that this
    error had a “substantial and injurious effect or influence” on
    his ultimate sentence.
    COUNSEL
    Timothy M. Gabrielsen (argued), Assistant Federal Public
    Defender; John M. Sands, Federal Public Defender; Office
    of the Federal Public Defender, Tucson, Arizona; Susan B.
    Fox and Sean Bruner, Law Office of Sean Bruner Ltd.,
    Tucson, Arizona; for Petitioner-Appellant.
    Lacey Stover Gard (argued) and Jeffrey A. Zick, Section
    Chief Counsel; Kent E. Cattani, Chief Counsel, Criminal
    Appeals/Capital Litigation Section; Mark Brnovich,
    Attorney General; Office of the Attorney General, Tucson,
    Arizona; for Respondents-Appellees.
    4                         SPREITZ V. RYAN
    OPINION
    PAEZ, Circuit Judge:
    In 1994, an Arizona jury convicted Christopher J. Spreitz
    (“Spreitz”) of first-degree murder. The victim was thirty-
    nine year old Ruby Reid (“Reid”). Finding that the cruelty
    of the murder outweighed any mitigating circumstances, the
    trial judge sentenced Spreitz to death. Spreitz appeals the
    district court’s denial of his petition for a writ of habeas
    corpus challenging his conviction and sentence. We affirm
    the district court’s judgment with respect to Spreitz’s
    conviction, 1 and reverse with respect to his sentence. 2
    In challenging his sentence, Spreitz argues that the
    Arizona Supreme Court unconstitutionally affirmed his
    death sentence by failing to consider mitigating evidence of
    his longstanding alcohol and substance abuse. He contends
    that the state court refused to consider, as a matter of law,
    this evidence in mitigation because he did not establish a
    causal connection between the crime and his long-term
    alcohol and substance abuse. In Eddings v. Oklahoma,
    
    455 U.S. 104
    , 110 (1982), the Supreme Court held that under
    both the Eighth and Fourteenth Amendments, a sentencer in
    a capital case may not “refuse to consider, as a matter of law,
    1
    We affirm the judgment with respect to Spreitz’s conviction in a
    concurrently filed memorandum disposition.
    2
    On February 13, 2015, we vacated submission of Spreitz’s case
    pending final resolution of the en banc proceedings in McKinney v. Ryan,
    
    730 F.3d 903
     (9th Cir. 2013). In December 2015, the en banc court
    issued an opinion in McKinney. 
    813 F.3d 798
     (9th Circ. 2015) (en banc).
    After the Supreme Court denied the State’s petition for a writ of
    certiorari, Ryan v. McKinney, 
    137 S. Ct. 39
     (2016) (mem), we ordered
    supplemental briefing on the applicability of McKinney to Spreitz’s case.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                              5
    any relevant mitigating evidence” offered by the defendant.
    Id. at 114. Although a sentencer “may determine the weight
    to be given relevant mitigating evidence . . . they may not
    give it no weight by excluding such evidence from their
    consideration.” Id. at 114–15 (footnote omitted). In
    interpreting and applying Eddings, the Supreme Court has
    explained that “full consideration of evidence that mitigates
    against the death penalty is essential if the [sentencer] is to
    give a reasoned moral response to the defendant’s
    background, character, and crime.” Penry v. Lynaugh
    (Penry I), 
    492 U.S. 302
    , 328 (1989), abrogated on other
    grounds by Atkins v. Virginia, 
    536 U.S. 304
     (2002) (internal
    quotation marks and citation omitted). Moreover, the
    Supreme Court has been clear: requiring a defendant to
    prove a causal nexus between his mitigating evidence and
    the crime is “a test we never countenanced and now have
    unequivocally rejected.” Smith v. Texas, 
    543 U.S. 37
    , 45
    (2004) (per curiam).
    At the time of Spreitz’s sentencing, Arizona Revised
    Statute Annotated § 13-703(G)(1994) 3 listed five mitigating
    factors, and Arizona case law additionally recognized
    nonstatutory mitigating factors, including, for example, a
    defendant’s difficult family background or mental condition
    not severe enough to qualify as a statutory mitigating factor.
    In an en banc decision of our court, McKinney v. Ryan,
    
    813 F.3d 798
     (9th Cir. 2015), cert denied, 
    137 S. Ct. 39
    (2016) (mem), we explained:
    For a period of a little over 15 years in capital
    cases, in clear violation of Eddings, the
    3
    Arizona has since revised its death penalty sentencing scheme. All
    references to Arizona’s Revised Statute Annotated are to those
    provisions in effect at the time of Spreitz’s sentencing.
    6                         SPREITZ V. RYAN
    Supreme Court of Arizona articulated and
    applied a “causal nexus” test for nonstatutory
    mitigation that forbade as a matter of law
    giving weight to mitigating evidence, such as
    family background or mental condition,
    unless the background or mental condition
    was causally connected to the crime.
    Id. at 802. As a result, we held in McKinney that
    “[a]pplication of the causal nexus test to nonstatutory
    mitigating factors violated Eddings, for it resulted in Arizona
    courts being entirely forbidden, as a matter of state law, to
    treat as a mitigating factor a family background or a mental
    condition that was not causally connected to a defendant’s
    crime.” Id. Spreitz argues that the Arizona Supreme Court
    applied its causal nexus test in his case, refusing to consider
    evidence of his long-term substance and alcohol abuse
    because he did not adequately establish a causal connection
    between that history of abuse and his crime.
    As in McKinney, “the precise question before us is
    whether the Arizona Supreme Court applied its
    unconstitutional causal nexus test in affirming [Spreitz]’s
    death sentence on de novo review.” 4 Id. at 804 (emphasis
    4
    The Arizona Supreme Court is required by statute to undertake an
    independent review of a death sentence. 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703.01
    (A).
    In conducting that review for crimes that occurred before 2002, the court
    “independently review[s] the trial court’s findings of aggravation and
    mitigation and the propriety of the death sentence. In doing so, [the
    court] review[s] the record de novo, considering the quality and the
    strength, not simply the number, of aggravating and mitigating factors.”
    State v. Lynch, 
    357 P.3d 119
    , 141 (Ariz. 2015) (internal quotation marks
    and citations omitted), rev’d on other grounds, Lynch v. Arizona, 
    136 S. Ct. 1818
     (2016).
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                            7
    and internal quotation marks omitted). For the reasons that
    follow, we conclude that it did.
    I.
    A. Spreitz’s Crimes, Conviction, and Sentence
    On May 25, 1989, the police arrested Spreitz after
    discovering Ruby Reid’s body in the desert. Upon
    questioning, Spreitz confessed to murdering Reid. We
    briefly provide the facts of the murder.
    On the evening of May 18, after drinking heavily and
    being rejected by the woman he was dating, Spreitz “picked
    up” Reid at a convenience store. State v. Spreitz (Spreitz I),
    
    945 P.2d 1260
    , 1264–65 (Ariz. 1997). 5 In his confession,
    Spreitz claimed that Reid voluntarily left with him and that
    his understanding was that they would have sex later that
    evening. 
    Id. at 1265
    . Spreitz further claimed that he drove
    her out to the desert, where Reid decided she no longer
    wanted to have sex. 
    Id.
     The two fought as a result. 
    Id.
    Spreitz explained that Reid slapped him and that he
    responded by punching her in the mouth. 
    Id.
     Spreitz then
    sexually assaulted Reid—“remov[ing] her clothing and
    ha[ving] vaginal intercourse with her.” 
    Id.
     Spreitz also
    recounted that he hit Reid in the head multiple times with a
    rock “to make her stop yelling.” 
    Id.
     He explained that he
    left Reid without knowing whether she was alive or dead.
    
    Id.
    Shortly after leaving Reid in the desert, Spreitz was
    stopped by a Tucson police department officer. 
    Id. at 1264
    .
    5
    Our recitation of the facts is adopted from the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s opinion affirming Spreitz’s conviction and death sentence.
    8                     SPREITZ V. RYAN
    The officer observed that Spreitz had a ripped shirt, smelled
    of feces, and appeared to be covered in blood and fecal
    matter. 
    Id.
     In addition, when detectives later searched
    Spreitz’s car, they found blood spatter in the trunk, some of
    which was inconsistent with Spreitz’s blood characteristics.
    
    Id. at 1265
    .
    On Monday morning, May 22, Reid’s naked and
    decomposing body was discovered on the outskirts of
    Tucson. 
    Id.
     At trial, “the medical examiner testified that,
    due to the advanced state of decomposition, he could not
    determine the full extent and nature of [Reid]’s injuries.” 
    Id.
    Even so, he was able to observe “bruising on the legs, arms,
    and back; bruising and abrasions on the buttocks; several
    broken ribs; internal bleeding; a broken jaw; several head
    lacerations; and a skull fracture where the skull had been
    ‘shoved in.’” 
    Id.
     The medical examiner concluded that Reid
    had been killed by “blunt-force trauma to the head.” 
    Id.
    In addition to finding Reid’s body “[a]t the scene, police
    detectives observed tire tracks leading back to the pavement,
    oil stains in the dirt, footprints, and drag marks in the dirt
    leading away from the body. They also found feces-stained
    pants, tennis shoes, socks, a used tampon, and a torn
    brassiere. Two blood-stained rocks lay next to the body.”
    
    Id.
     A few days later, police arrested Spreitz. 
    Id.
    On June 2, 1989, a grand jury indicted Spreitz for first-
    degree murder, 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. §§ 13-1105
    , 13-703;
    sexual assault, 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. §§ 13-406
    (A) & (B);
    and kidnapping, 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. §§ 13-304
    (A)(3) &
    (B). Spreitz I, 
    945 P.2d at 1265
    . After five years of pre-trial
    proceedings mostly regarding the admissibility of DNA
    evidence, a seven-day jury trial began on August 9, 1994.
    
    Id. at 1266
    . After the conclusion of the trial, the jury
    returned guilty verdicts on all three counts: first-degree
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                        9
    murder (both premeditated and felony murder), sexual
    assault, and kidnapping. 
    Id.
    Prior to both his aggravation-mitigation and sentencing
    hearings before the trial judge, Spreitz submitted evidence
    and a memorandum in support of certain mitigating
    circumstances. As noted earlier, at the time of Spreitz’s
    sentencing, Arizona’s death penalty statutes provided a list
    of five specific mitigating factors; Arizona case law
    recognized nonstatutory mitigating factors as well. See 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 13-703
    (G); McKinney, 813 F.3d at 802.
    Spreitz argued as nonstatutory mitigating factors: “(1) his
    dysfunctional family life and lack of socialization; (2) a
    history of alcohol and drug abuse; (3) his expressions of
    remorse; [(4)] his good behavior while incarcerated; [(5)] his
    lack of adult convictions; [and (6)] no prior record of violent
    tendencies.” Spreitz I, 
    945 P.2d at 1279
    . Spreitz argued as
    statutory mitigating factors: (1) his age at the time of the
    murder, 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 13-703
    (G)(5), and (2) that
    his “capacity to appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct
    or to conform his conduct to the requirements of law was
    significantly impaired [due to alcohol use], but not so
    impaired as to constitute a defense to prosecution,” 
    id.
    § 13-703(G)(1); see Spreitz I, 
    945 P.2d at 1279
    .
    Spreitz provided evidence of and argued for all the
    foregoing mitigating circumstances but focused heavily on a
    combination of his relationship with his mother and his long
    history of alcohol and substance abuse. To that end, Spreitz
    submitted a written report by and presented testimony from
    an examining psychologist, Dr. Todd Flynn, Ph.D. After
    conducting interviews and research, Dr. Flynn concluded
    that Spreitz’s longstanding alcohol and substance abuse
    should be considered as both a statutory and nonstatutory
    mitigating factor. In his report, which was admitted into
    10                       SPREITZ V. RYAN
    evidence at the aggravation and mitigation hearing, Dr.
    Flynn repeatedly emphasized Spreitz’s longstanding
    substance abuse 6:
    By age twelve or thirteen, Chris Spreitz
    began drinking alcohol and smoking
    marijuana. By age 15, he drank steadily on
    weekends and would have a shot of vodka
    before school.
    The collateral information shows that the
    alcohol abuse continued to intensify after he
    left home. A variety of persons . . . described
    him as a heavy drinker. This includes a
    second cousin, Scott [Jouett], who saw him to
    be intoxicated, “a majority of the time,” when
    he was visiting Santa Barbara a week before
    the current offense. To the interviewing
    investigator, Mr. [Jouett] also described,
    “several different occasions when Chris has
    blackouts,” while drinking alcohol.
    It appears completely clear from the available
    information that Chris Spreitz had a long-
    standing problem with alcohol which
    probably reached the level of physical
    dependence.     He described himself as
    drinking in the morning as early as age 15.
    Virtually everyone else who spent much time
    with him described him as a heavy drinker.
    6
    Dr. Flynn testified consistently with his report.   For ease of
    reference, we refer only to his report.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                       11
    Ultimately, Dr. Flynn concluded that Spreitz’s alcohol
    abuse, childhood home life, and stunted development,
    combined with rejection by his girlfriend on the day of the
    crime, and intoxication at the time of the crime, led to the
    murder.
    At the end of his report, Dr. Flynn summarized his
    findings and opinions with respect to both statutory and
    nonstatutory mitigating factors. He opined that both
    Spreitz’s age, 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 13-703
    (G)(5), and
    impaired capacity to appreciate the wrongfulness of his
    conduct or conform his conduct to the law, 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 13-703
    (G)(1), were mitigating statutory factors. As
    to § 13-703(G)(5), specifically, Dr. Flynn opined that a
    combination of a disturbing upbringing in a “pathogenic,
    emotionally neglectful home environment,” and “[y]ears of
    alcoholism intoxication” combined to cause major deficits in
    Spreitz’s social and emotional development.             As to
    § 13-703(G)(1), Dr. Flynn offered a similar conclusion. In
    light of Spreitz’s “history of alcoholism . . . , a significant
    but unknown degree of alcohol intoxication is likely” on the
    night of the crime. In addition, Spreitz’s “history strongly
    suggests years of early experiences likely to have caused a
    build-up of pent-up angry, aggressive feelings toward
    women generally (and older women especially) which may
    have burst forth with uncontrollable intensity with or without
    alcohol intoxication.” Dr. Flynn concluded that Spreitz’s
    intoxication on the night of the crime coupled with his early
    childhood experiences “likely . . . contributed to an
    uncontrollable outburst of aggression” and inability to
    control his conduct.
    Dr. Flynn also concluded that certain nonstatutory
    mitigating factors were present. The nonstatutory mitigating
    factors included, in his opinion: Spreitz’s low potential for
    12                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    future violence, the “failure of [Spreitz’s] parents to provide
    treatment for alcohol abuse in [his] teenage years,” and the
    “emotionally deprived, physically punitive home
    environment” of Spreitz’s upbringing. Dr. Flynn also
    emphasized that even if both statutory mitigating factors
    failed to satisfy the statutory threshold, they may still “be
    appropriately considered . . . as nonstatutory mitigation.”
    On November 28, 1994, the trial court conducted an
    aggravation-mitigation hearing. At the hearing, Spreitz
    called three mitigation witnesses: Dr. Flynn and two
    correctional officers from the Pima County jail, where
    Spreitz was incarcerated. The State did not offer any
    witnesses or evidence at the hearing. Dr. Flynn testified
    consistently with his report, as detailed above.
    On the same date, a probation officer filed a Pre-
    Sentence Report, which concluded:
    It appears the defendant became involved in
    the senseless commission of the instant
    offense due to his alcohol and drug abuse.
    After five years in custody, he now admits his
    substance abuse problem; however, this does
    not condone his involvement in the offense.
    It is unfortunate the victim died before the
    defendant had his revelation.
    Prior to the sentencing hearing, Spreitz also submitted
    several letters from friends, family, and jail personnel.
    On December 21, 1994, the trial court conducted a
    sentencing hearing. Spreitz, Spreitz’s counsel, the victim’s
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                            13
    sister, and the prosecutor each addressed the court. 7 The
    prosecutor first disputed the mitigating evidence presented
    by Spreitz at the mitigation-aggravation hearing. With
    respect to Spreitz’s alcohol abuse, the prosecutor argued that
    Spreitz’s intoxication at the time of the crime did not meet
    the statutory definition for mitigation under § 13-703(G)(1)
    because his conduct both during the murder and afterwards
    demonstrated that “he knew what he was doing.” The
    prosecutor emphasized that the evidence revealed that Reid
    had been forcibly abducted and stuffed into the trunk of a
    car, thus forcing her to spend time “contemplat[ing] the
    uncertainty of her fate.” The prosecutor argued that the
    evidence revealed signs of struggle and that the serious
    injuries to Reid’s body belied any notion that Spreitz did not
    know what he was doing. The prosecutor further argued that
    the fact that Reid defecated on herself revealed that she was
    terrified prior to her murder. In sum, the prosecutor argued
    that given both the heinous nature of the crime and the
    manner in which Reid suffered, a finding in aggravation that
    Reid was murdered in an “especially cruel manner” was
    warranted.
    After a short recess, the sentencing judge rendered oral
    findings addressing the aggravation and mitigation issues.
    He then imposed a sentence of death. 8 Following the
    7
    The trial court did not entertain argument at the conclusion of the
    aggravation-mitigation hearing. As a result, counsel addressed the
    aggravation-mitigation evidence and sentence options at the subsequent
    sentencing hearing.
    8
    Ring v. Arizona, 
    536 U.S. 548
     (2012), the Supreme Court decision
    holding judge-sentencing in capital cases unconstitutional, had yet to be
    decided.
    14                   SPREITZ V. RYAN
    hearing, the sentencing judge filed a judgment setting forth
    written findings.
    The judge first found one aggravating circumstance—
    that the offense was committed in an “especially cruel
    manner.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 13-703
    (F)(6). The judge
    proceeded to review the “many factors [that were] submitted
    in mitigation,” ultimately finding five mitigating
    circumstances of various levels of significance:
    [1] A mitigating circumstance defense
    submitted was that the defendant had an
    extremely disruptive childhood . . . . The
    court finds the home was sub-normal, not
    even a minimally healthy one for developing
    children; and it is obvious the defendant
    suffered a disruptive middle childhood—had
    a punitive, controlling, cold mother, who he
    could not please, no matter what he did.
    The defendant in his life turned to substance
    abuse—alcohol and some suggestion he was
    using cocaine and other drugs. However, the
    court does not find such is a mitigating
    circumstance that impaired his ability to
    make a judgment on whether he was acting
    rightfully or wrongfully in the death of the
    victim.
    The defendant’s history of intoxication is
    longstanding.       He had been abusing
    substances for close to ten years of his life at
    the time of this offense when he was twenty-
    two. Again, the court does not believe that
    the substance abuse or intoxication impaired
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      15
    the defendant’s ability and capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct to
    any significant degree. . . . The court does not
    believe intoxication is any sort of mitigating
    circumstance.
    ...
    [2] The court acknowledges that the
    defendant has begun a process of
    improvement and emotional growth while
    confined at the Pima County Jail, where he
    has taken part in education programs.
    Correctional officers have testified he was a
    prisoner who caused no problems.
    [3] The age of the defendant at the time of the
    offense (twenty-two) is not a mitigating
    circumstance in and of itself. Immaturity
    probably is, but the court does not believe
    immaturity was a significant mitigating
    circumstance.
    [4] The court finds that Mr. Spreitz has no
    criminal history of a felony nature—there is
    no history or propensity for acts of violence.
    [5] The court believes the defendant is
    capable of being rehabilitated. The court
    does not know whether he has a good
    prognosis for the future, but the court
    believes he can be rehabilitated.
    In conclusion, the judge found that “the mitigating
    circumstances [were] not sufficient to balance the
    16                       SPREITZ V. RYAN
    aggravating circumstances, nor [were] they sufficiently
    substantial to call for leniency.” He thus imposed a death
    sentence as to the first-degree murder conviction.
    B. Spreitz’s Appeal and Post-Conviction Proceedings
    Spreitz appealed his conviction and sentence to the
    Arizona Supreme Court with the assistance of new counsel.
    The Arizona Supreme Court affirmed Spreitz’s conviction
    and sentence after conducting its own independent review of
    the record. 9 In reviewing the mitigating evidence, the court
    found four of the five mitigating circumstances that the
    sentencing judge had found, declining to find Spreitz’s good
    behavior while in jail awaiting sentencing as a mitigating
    circumstance. Spreitz I, 
    945 P.2d at
    1280–81. The court
    explained:
    [1] “We agree with the sentencing judge that
    defendant’s upbringing was subnormal.” 
    Id. at 1280
    .
    [2] “We also find that the sentencing judge
    . . . properly found that his emotional
    immaturity was not a significant mitigating
    factor.” 
    Id. at 1281
    .
    [3] “We agree that the record supports the
    sentencing judge’s findings that defendant
    had no previous adult felony convictions, no
    prior acts of violence, and
    9
    See note 4, supra. Because the Arizona Supreme Court conducted
    a de novo review, we focus on its analysis, rather than, as the dissent
    does in part, the analysis by the trial court.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                     17
    [4] that the defendant is capable of
    rehabilitation.” Id.
    The Arizona Supreme Court also added that it considered
    remorse as an additional nonstatutory mitigating factor. Id.
    The court addressed Spreitz’s history of alcohol and
    substance abuse as follows:
    The record demonstrates defendant’s
    longtime substance abuse problems. We
    note, however, that defendant’s general
    problems with substance abuse are not
    essential to our decision here. We therefore
    decline to conclude that defendant was
    impaired by alcohol consumption to an extent
    that it interfered with his “capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct or
    to conform his conduct to the requirements of
    the law.” A[riz]. R[ev]. S[tat]. [Ann.]
    § 13-703(G)(1); see also State v. Medrano,
    
    185 Ariz. 192
    , 194, 
    914 P.2d 225
    , 227 (1996)
    (citing [State v.] Stokley, 182 Ariz. [505,]
    520, 898 P.2d [454,] 469 [1995]).
    
    Id.
     at 1280–81. In the only other portion of its opinion
    addressing Spreitz’s history of alcohol and substance abuse,
    the court said:
    The sentencing judge found that defendant’s
    ability to appreciate the wrongfulness of his
    conduct was not impaired on the night of the
    murder to any significant extent by substance
    abuse, emotional disorders, situational stress,
    or by a combination of these. Our review of
    18                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    the record convinces us that the trial court’s
    finding was proper.
    Id. at 1281.
    The Arizona Supreme Court agreed with the trial court’s
    aggravation finding that the murder was done in an
    especially cruel manner, id. at 1279, and then proceeded to
    reweigh the applicable aggravating and mitigating factors,
    finding that “the aggravating circumstance of especial
    cruelty in defendant’s murder of Ruby Reid outweigh[ed] all
    factors mitigating in favor of leniency.” Id. at 1282. It
    affirmed his death sentence. Id. at 1283. Spreitz filed a
    petition for a writ of certiorari, which the United States
    Supreme Court denied. Spreitz v. Arizona, 
    523 U.S. 1027
    (1998) (mem).
    In March 2000, represented again by new counsel,
    Spreitz filed a petition for post-conviction relief in the
    Arizona Superior Court (“PCR court”). See Ariz. R. Crim.
    P. 32.1. Spreitz alleged, inter alia, that the sentencing judge
    and the Arizona Supreme Court committed error by failing
    to consider his history of alcohol and substance abuse as a
    nonstatutory mitigating factor apart from its causal
    connection to the murder—i.e., Eddings error. He also
    alleged that his appellate counsel was ineffective for failing
    to raise the sentencing judge’s Eddings error on appeal to the
    Arizona Supreme Court. Spreitz additionally raised several
    new claims of trial-counsel-ineffectiveness.
    The PCR court denied all of Spreitz’s claims and entered
    an order dismissing his petition for post-conviction relief. In
    Part 3 of its order, the PCR court discussed Spreitz’s claims
    of “nexus-error”—that both the trial court and the Arizona
    Supreme Court erred when they failed to consider Spreitz’s
    longstanding alcohol and substance abuse on the basis that
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                             19
    Spreitz had failed to establish a causal nexus between the
    long-term substance abuse and the murder. 10 The PCR court
    dismissed the claim 11 as waived, reasoning that Spreitz had
    failed to raise the issue on direct appeal. Nonetheless, the
    PCR court addressed the merits of the nexus-error claim in
    the course of analyzing Spreitz’s argument that his appellate
    counsel was ineffective for failing to raise it. In doing so,
    the PCR court explained that the claim failed because:
    [I]t must be demonstrated, under A[riz].
    R[ev]. S[tat]. [Ann.] § 13-703(G)(l), that
    there is a causal link between the history of
    alcohol or substance abuse and the offense
    itself. E.g., State v. Stokley, [] 182 Ariz.
    [505,] 523 [
    898 P.2d 454
    , 472 (Ariz. 1995)].
    Without some basis for explaining or
    defining the individual’s behavior at the time
    of the offense, the Petitioner’s history of
    alcohol or substance abuse would be
    inconsequential (which is exactly what the
    trial court and Supreme Court concluded).
    State v. Kayer, 
    194 Ariz. 423
    , 
    984 P.2d 81
    ([Ariz.] 1999).
    At times, the court can and should consider
    an individual’s long-term alcoholism and
    10
    For ease of reference, we refer to the Arizona courts’ alleged error
    as “nexus-error.”
    11
    Although Spreitz raised, and the PCR court recognized, two
    distinct claims—one with respect to the sentencing court and one with
    respect to the Arizona Supreme Court—the PCR court’s analysis treats
    the claims as one and the same and refers to them in the singular. To
    reflect accurately the PCR court’s discussion, our summary here likewise
    refers to a singular “claim.”
    20                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    substance abuse, usually in conjunction with
    other factors or diagnosis, as non-statutory
    mitigation. However, the impact or effect of
    the alcoholism or substance abuse must be
    substantial and of such severity that it
    provides a sufficient basis for explaining the
    defendant’s conduct, character or ability to
    control his behavior at the time of the offense.
    [Citations omitted].
    As previously discussed, there is no evidence
    in Petitioner’s case to suggest that he suffered
    any long-term effects from his alcohol or
    drug abuse that precluded him from
    controlling his behavior. Petitioner did not
    suffer from any cognitive or emotional
    deficits that rendered him incapable of
    controlling his conduct. Therefore, the trial
    court did not err in failing to find Petitioner’s
    history of alcohol or substance abuse as a
    separate, non-statutory mitigating factor.
    [Citation omitted].
    Spreitz filed a petition for review in the Arizona
    Supreme Court challenging the PCR court’s judgment. The
    Arizona Supreme Court summarily affirmed the PCR court’s
    merits determination with respect to Spreitz’s Eddings
    claims. State v. Spreitz (Spreitz II), 
    39 P.3d 525
    , 527 (Ariz.
    2002).
    Spreitz filed his federal habeas petition in February
    2003. He alleged in claim seven that the sentencing judge
    and the Arizona Supreme Court had both committed nexus-
    error with respect to his long-time alcohol and substance
    abuse, and that appellate counsel was ineffective for failing
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      21
    to argue the sentencing judge’s nexus-error on direct appeal
    to the Arizona Supreme Court.
    The district court denied all of Spreitz’s claims. With
    respect to the alleged nexus-error by both the sentencing
    court and the Arizona Supreme Court, the district court
    found the claims procedurally barred, relying on the PCR
    court’s determination that Spreitz had waived the claims
    because he could have raised them on direct appeal but failed
    to do so. The district court concluded that Spreitz had
    properly exhausted his ineffective assistance of appellate
    counsel claim, and thus addressed the alleged nexus-error in
    that context, ultimately concluding it was not meritorious.
    Accordingly, the district court concluded that “appellate
    counsel’s failure to raise this issue on appeal does not
    constitute ineffectiveness.”
    Spreitz timely appealed.
    II. Jurisdiction and Standard of Review
    We have jurisdiction pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. §§ 1291
    and 2253(a), and review de novo the district court’s denial
    of a writ of habeas corpus. Poyson v. Ryan, 
    879 F.3d 875
    ,
    887 (9th Cir. 2018). Because Spreitz filed his federal habeas
    petition after April 24, 1996, he must satisfy the
    Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act (“AEDPA”).
    Under AEDPA, we may not grant habeas relief unless the
    state’s adjudication of Spreitz’s claim (1) “was contrary to
    . . . clearly established federal law[] as determined by the
    Supreme Court,” (2) “involved an unreasonable application
    of” such law, or (3) “was based on an unreasonable
    determination of the facts in light of the evidence presented
    in the State court proceeding.” (
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)). “In
    making this determination, we look to the last state court
    decision to address the claim,” White v. Ryan, 
    895 F.3d 641
    ,
    22                     SPREITZ V. RYAN
    665 (9th Cir. 2018) (citing Wilson v. Sellers, 
    138 S. Ct. 1188
    ,
    1192 (2018)), which for Spreitz’s nexus-error claim is that
    of the PCR court.
    Spreitz argues that the PCR court’s decision was
    “contrary to” Eddings v. Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
     (1982).
    “A state court’s decision is contrary to clearly established
    federal law if it ‘applies a rule that contradicts the governing
    law set forth in [U.S. Supreme Court] cases’ or arrives at a
    different result in a case that ‘confronts a set of facts that are
    materially indistinguishable from a decision of [the
    Supreme] Court.’” Castellanos v. Small, 
    766 F.3d 1137
    ,
    1146 (9th Cir. 2014) (alteration in original) (quoting
    Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 405–06 (2000)). “If the
    state court applies a legal standard that contradicts clearly
    established [Supreme Court] law, we review de novo the
    applicant’s claims, applying the correct legal standard to
    determine whether the applicant is entitled to relief.” 
    Id.
    (citation omitted).
    III. Discussion
    As discussed supra, the precise question we must decide
    is whether the Arizona Supreme Court applied its
    unconstitutional causal nexus test in violation of Eddings
    when it affirmed Spreitz’s death sentence. To answer that
    question, we must first determine whether the claim is
    properly before us. After concluding that Spreitz’s claim
    could not have been procedurally defaulted, we turn to the
    level of deference we must accord the PCR court’s ruling on
    Spreitz’s Eddings claim under AEDPA. Because the PCR
    court’s decision was contrary to clearly established Supreme
    Court precedent, we accord that decision no deference and
    review Spreitz’s Eddings claim de novo. We conclude that
    the Arizona Supreme Court violated Eddings by
    impermissibly requiring that Spreitz establish a causal
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      23
    connection between his longstanding substance abuse and
    the murder before considering and weighing the evidence as
    a nonstatutory mitigating factor. Finally, having determined
    that the Arizona Supreme Court applied an unconstitutional
    causal nexus test in its sentencing procedure, we turn to
    whether the error was harmless under Brecht v. Abrahamson,
    
    507 U.S. 619
     (1993). We conclude that the error was not
    harmless and therefore reverse the district court’s judgment
    with respect to Spreitz’s sentence.
    A.
    Under the doctrine of procedural default, a federal
    habeas court “will not review the merits of claims, including
    constitutional claims, that a state court declined to hear
    because the prisoner failed to abide by a state procedural
    rule.” Martinez v. Ryan, 
    566 U.S. 1
    , 9 (2012). “We review
    de novo a district court’s conclusion that a claim is
    procedurally defaulted.” Cooper v. Neven, 
    641 F.3d 322
    ,
    326 (9th Cir. 2011).
    Here, the district court concluded that both of Spreitz’s
    Eddings claims—that the sentencing court and the Arizona
    Supreme Court applied an unconstitutional causal nexus
    test—were procedurally defaulted, because the PCR court
    found each claim waived for failure to raise them on direct
    appeal. This conclusion, however, is erroneous with respect
    to Spreitz’s claim that the Arizona Supreme Court violated
    Eddings. After all, “[t]he Arizona Supreme Court reviews
    capital sentences de novo, making its own determination of
    what constitute[s] legally relevant aggravating and
    mitigating factors, and then weighing those factors
    independently. 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 13-755
    . The Arizona
    Supreme Court ‘conducts a thorough and independent
    review of the record and of the aggravating and mitigating
    evidence to determine whether the sentence is justified.’”
    24                        SPREITZ V. RYAN
    McKinney, 813 F.3d at 819 (emphasis removed) (quoting
    State v. McKinney, 
    917 P.2d 1214
    , 1225 (Ariz. 1996)).
    Spreitz could not have raised on direct appeal his claim that
    the Arizona Supreme Court violated Eddings in performing
    its de novo review of Spreitz’s death sentence. The first
    opportunity he had to raise that claim was before the PCR
    court, at which time he did so. Thus, Spreitz’s claim is not
    procedurally defaulted and is properly before us. 12
    B.
    Because Spreitz’s claim that the Arizona Supreme Court
    applied an unconstitutional causal nexus test to his
    nonstatutory mitigating evidence of long-time alcohol and
    12
    The district court declined to issue a certificate of appealability
    (“COA”) on Spreitz’s substantive Eddings claim, which he raised as
    claim 1.7 on pages 108 through 111 in his federal habeas petition.
    Although Spreitz did not present his Eddings claim as a separate
    uncertified issue, we may grant a COA regarding any uncertified issue
    discussed in a petitioner’s opening brief. See 9th Cir. R. 22-1(e).
    Spreitz’s opening brief discusses the Arizona courts’ Eddings errors. We
    therefore may exercise our discretion to expand the COA to encompass
    the Eddings claim.
    To obtain a COA under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2253
    (c), Spreitz must
    demonstrate that “reasonable jurists could debate whether . . . the
    petition should have been resolved in a different manner or that the issues
    presented were adequate to deserve encouragement to proceed further.”
    Slack v. McDaniel, 
    529 U.S. 473
    , 484 (2000). Reasonable jurists could
    debate the merits of Spreitz’s Eddings claim. We thus exercise our
    discretion and expand the COA to encompass Spreitz’s substantive
    Eddings claim with respect to the Arizona Supreme Court. We
    acknowledge that under Ninth Circuit Rule 22-1(f), the State would
    normally be afforded an opportunity to submit supplemental briefing on
    the uncertified Eddings issue. Here, however, the Eddings issue has been
    exhaustively briefed, in the context of Spreitz’s appellate counsel’s
    alleged ineffectiveness before the Arizona Supreme Court. Additional
    briefing is unwarranted.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      25
    substance abuse is properly before us, we next determine the
    level of deference to accord the PCR court’s adjudication of
    that claim. As discussed above, although the PCR court first
    declared the claim waived, it proceeded to adjudicate the
    claim on the merits. In denying the claim, the PCR court
    explained:
    Without some basis for explaining or
    defining the individual’s behavior at the time
    of the offense, [Spreitz]’s history of alcohol
    or substance abuse would be inconsequential
    (which is exactly what the trial court and
    Supreme Court concluded).
    At times, the court can and should consider
    an individual’s long-term alcoholism and
    substance abuse, usually in conjunction with
    other factors or diagnosis, as non-statutory
    mitigation. However, the impact or effect of
    the alcoholism or substance abuse must be
    substantial and of such severity that it
    provides a sufficient basis for explaining the
    defendant’s conduct, character, or ability to
    control his behavior at the time of the offense.
    ....
    As previously discussed, there is no evidence
    in [Spreitz]’s case to suggest that he suffered
    any long-term effects from his alcohol or
    drug abuse that precluded him, from
    controlling his behavior. Petitioner did not
    suffer from any cognitive or emotional
    deficits that rendered him incapable of
    controlling his conduct. Therefore, the trial
    26                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    court did not err in failing to find [Spreitz]’s
    history of alcohol or substance abuse as a
    separate, non-statutory mitigating factor.
    In other words, the PCR court concluded that Spreitz’s
    longstanding alcohol and substance abuse could only be
    considered a nonstatutory mitigating factor if it “provide[d]
    a sufficient basis for explaining the defendant’s conduct,
    character, or ability to control his behavior at the time of the
    offense.” This discussion both accurately described the
    causal nexus test and approved of it.
    Such reasoning is contrary to clearly established federal
    law. As explained in McKinney, “the causal nexus test
    clearly violates Eddings.” 813 F.3d at 810. Therefore,
    “[b]ecause the state court used the wrong standard, we need
    not defer to that decision.” Hardy v. Chappell, 
    849 F.3d 803
    ,
    820 (9th Cir. 2016).
    C.
    Because the PCR court’s decision was “contrary to”
    clearly established law, we review de novo the merits of
    Spreitz’s Eddings claim. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). We
    therefore consider whether the Arizona Supreme Court
    applied its unconstitutional causal nexus test in reviewing
    and affirming Spreitz’s death sentence. In so doing, “we
    look only to the decision of th[e Arizona Supreme Court],
    . . . only [considering] . . . the decision of the sentencing
    judge . . . to the degree it was adopted or substantially
    incorporated by the Arizona Supreme Court.” McKinney,
    813 F.3d at 819.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                             27
    1.
    Our decision in McKinney frames our consideration of
    the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision and Spreitz’s claim.
    McKinney makes clear that the Arizona Supreme Court
    consistently articulated and applied its unconstitutional
    causal nexus test during the period in which Spreitz’s death
    sentence was litigated in the trial court and reviewed by the
    Arizona Supreme Court. Id. at 824. Moreover, McKinney
    makes plain that although on habeas review, we generally
    apply a “presumption that state courts know and follow the
    law,” “the Arizona Supreme Court’s consistent articulation
    and application of its causal nexus test . . . make such a
    course impossible.” Id. at 803 (internal quotation marks and
    citation omitted). In appeals heard from the late 1980s until
    at least 2002, see State v. Canez, 
    42 P.3d 564
    , 594 (Ariz.
    2002), it was unmistakably clear that “the Arizona Supreme
    Court did not know and follow federal law.” 
    Id.
     (internal
    quotation marks omitted). 13 Therefore, just as in McKinney
    and subsequent cases applying McKinney, see, e.g., Poyson,
    879 F.3d at 889, “the presumption” that the Arizona
    Supreme Court knew and followed the law “is rebutted” here
    as well. McKinney, 813 F.3d at 804.
    That said, McKinney does not dispose of Spreitz’s claim.
    We must still review the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision
    to determine whether it did, in fact, apply its unconstitutional
    causal nexus test in Spreitz’s case. In doing so, we are
    mindful of the fact that at the time the Arizona Supreme
    Court decided Spreitz’s appeal, “if there is to be a
    presumption, it is that the Arizona Supreme Court violated
    13
    In 2005, the Arizona Supreme Court repudiated its earlier nexus
    test. See State v. Anderson, 
    111 P.3d 369
    , 391–92 (Ariz. 2005).
    28                   SPREITZ V. RYAN
    the dictates of Lockett and Eddings.” Greenway v. Ryan,
    
    866 F.3d 1094
    , 1095 (9th Cir. 2017).
    2.
    Against this backdrop, we are convinced that the Arizona
    Supreme Court applied its causal nexus test with respect to
    Spreitz’s evidence of longstanding alcohol and substance
    abuse in violation of Eddings.
    We quote again the Arizona Supreme Court’s discussion
    of Spreitz’s history of alcohol and substance abuse:
    The record demonstrates defendant’s
    longtime substance abuse problems. We
    note, however, that defendant’s general
    problems with substance abuse are not
    essential to our decision here. We therefore
    decline to conclude that defendant was
    impaired by alcohol consumption to an extent
    that it interfered with his “capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct or
    to conform his conduct to the requirements of
    the law.” A[riz]. R[ev]. S[tat]. [Ann.] § 13-
    703(G)(1); see also State v. Medrano,
    
    185 Ariz. 192
    , 194, 
    914 P.2d 225
    , 227 (1996)
    (citing Stokley, 
    182 Ariz. at 520
    , 
    898 P.2d at 469
    ).
    ....
    The sentencing judge found that defendant’s
    ability to appreciate the wrongfulness of his
    conduct was not impaired on the night of the
    murder to any significant extent by substance
    abuse, emotional disorders, situational stress,
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      29
    or by a combination of these. Our review of
    the record convinces us that the trial court’s
    finding was proper.
    Spreitz I, 
    945 P.2d at
    1280–81.          This discussion
    demonstrates that the Arizona Supreme Court primarily
    concluded that Spreitz failed to show statutory mitigation
    under 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 13-703
    (G)(1) based on his
    intoxication on the night of the murder. “When applied
    solely in the context of statutory mitigation under
    § 13-703(G)(1), the causal nexus test does not violate
    Eddings.” McKinney, 813 F.3d at 810.
    The plain text of the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision,
    however, also clearly demonstrates that the court did not
    solely apply its causal nexus test to Spreitz’s evidence of
    statutory mitigation. The court initially recognized Spreitz’s
    “general problems with substance abuse”—evidence that
    should have been relevant as nonstatutory mitigation—but
    concluded those problems were “not essential to [its]
    decision” because they did not show Spreitz was “impaired
    on the night of the murder.” Spreitz I, 
    945 P.2d at
    1280–81.
    In other words, the court did not acknowledge the relevance
    of longtime substance abuse as nonstatutory mitigation in the
    absence of a causal relationship to the crime. Instead, the
    court held that because there was no causal relationship,
    Spreitz’s long-term alcohol abuse was not of significance—
    i.e. “not essential”—to the court’s overall determination of
    either statutory or nonstatutory mitigation.
    The Supreme Court, however, has been clear that “‘full
    consideration of evidence that mitigates against the death
    penalty is essential if the sentencer is to give a reasoned
    moral response to the defendant’s background, character,
    and crime.’” McKinney, 813 F.3d at 812 (first emphasis
    30                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    added) (quoting Penry I, 
    492 U.S. at 319, 328
    ).
    Accordingly, “Eddings requires that ‘[t]he sentencer must
    also be able to consider and give effect’” to any relevant
    mitigation evidence proffered by the defendant, which
    includes evidence going toward nonstatutory mitigation. 
    Id.
    (quoting Penry I, 
    492 U.S. at 319, 328
    ). The Arizona
    Supreme Court’s refusal to consider Spreitz’s alcohol and
    substance abuse beyond its connection, if any, to Reid’s
    murder constitutes application of its unconstitutional causal
    nexus test to relevant nonstatutory mitigation evidence.
    Our understanding of the Arizona Supreme Court’s
    opinion is bolstered by the fact that in its discussion of
    Spreitz’s longstanding alcohol and substance abuse, the
    court cited to a prior decision that likewise applied the
    unconstitutional causal nexus test, State v. Medrano,
    
    914 P.2d 255
     (Ariz. 1996). In McKinney, we explained that
    in Medrano, the Arizona Supreme Court upheld the
    sentencing judge’s determination that the defendant’s
    cocaine use failed as a nonstatutory mitigating circumstance
    because he did not show that it contributed to his conduct on
    the night of the murder. McKinney, 813 F.3d at 825–26. In
    so doing, “[t]he Arizona Supreme Court applied the causal
    nexus test.” Id. at 825. Although the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s citation to Medrano is not dispositive, it certainly
    corroborates our understanding of the court’s opinion. See
    also Poyson, 879 F.3d at 890 (emphasizing, among other
    considerations, that the Arizona Supreme Court cited a
    passage from a case specifically identified in McKinney as
    applying the unconstitutional causal nexus test in order to
    conclude that the state court also applied that test to Poyson’s
    evidence). Moreover, as we explained in McKinney, “the
    Arizona Supreme Court applied its unconstitutional nexus
    test consistently” for fifteen years because it had “a mistaken
    understanding of Eddings.” 813 F.3d at 826. It is thus
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                        31
    entirely logical that in citing the exact portion of Medrano
    where it previously applied its causal nexus test, the Arizona
    Supreme Court was applying the same test in Spreitz’s case.
    See id. at 821; see also Poyson, 879 F.3d at 890.
    We find further support for our understanding of the
    Arizona Supreme Court’s unconstitutional treatment of
    Spreitz’s alcohol and substance abuse when we compare it
    with the manner in which the court discussed other
    mitigating factors. As detailed earlier, in evaluating the
    evidence of Spreitz’s general history of alcohol and
    substance abuse, the court stated that this evidence was “not
    essential” to its decision. Spreitz I, 
    945 P.2d at 1280
    . By
    contrast, when the court considered other mitigating factors,
    it specifically discussed the weight it would give those
    factors, as opposed to simply dismissing them outright. For
    example, when discussing Spreitz’s subnormal upbringing,
    the court stated, “Although we recognize defendant’s
    upbringing as a mitigating circumstance, we accord it little
    weight.” 
    Id. at 1280
     (emphasis added). As another example,
    after “finding that since his arrest, [Spreitz] has
    demonstrated remorse,” the court stated that his “remorse for
    his actions does little to counterbalance especial cruelty as a
    serious aggravating circumstance.” 
    Id. at 1281
     (emphasis
    added). And finally, when discussing the sentencing judge’s
    determination regarding Spreitz’s emotional immaturity, the
    court stated, “We also find that the sentencing judge . . .
    properly found that his emotional immaturity was not a
    significant mitigating factor.” 
    Id.
     (emphasis added). In
    other words, when the Arizona Supreme Court wanted to
    assign weight to a given factor, it said so. This pattern stands
    in stark contrast to the court’s conclusion that anything
    related to Spreitz’s long-term alcohol or substance abuse that
    fell short of the statutory definition could not serve as
    mitigation. 
    Id.
     at 1280–81.
    32                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    Finally, as also discussed earlier, the PCR court
    distinctly interpreted the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision
    as having applied a causal nexus test. The PCR court
    explained that “[w]ithout some basis for explaining or
    defining the individual’s behavior at the time of the offense,
    [Spreitz]’s history of alcohol or substance abuse would be
    inconsequential (which is exactly what the trial court and
    Supreme Court concluded).” Moreover, in articulating how
    the Arizona Supreme Court had applied its causal nexus test
    in Spreitz’s direct appeal, the PCR court, as had the Arizona
    Supreme Court, cited to a decision of the Arizona Supreme
    Court indisputably applying an unconstitutional nexus test,
    State v. Kayer, 
    984 P.2d 31
     (Ariz. 1999). See McKinney,
    813 F.3d at 816 (explaining that Kayer held “that the
    defendant’s mental impairment ‘was not established as a
    nonstatutory mitigating factor’ in part because ‘defendant
    offered no evidence to show the requisite causal nexus that
    mental impairment affected his judgment or his actions at the
    time of the murder’” (quoting Kayer, 
    984 P.2d at 46
    )). The
    fact that the PCR court interpreted the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s opinion as we do—and then itself applied the
    constitutionally erroneous nexus test—lends further support
    to our reading.
    We recognize that the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision
    on the particular issue before us was framed by language that
    might, in a decisional vacuum, suggest the court knew,
    understood, and applied the law with respect to Eddings.
    The court acknowledged that Spreitz argued that his history
    of alcohol and drug abuse served as both a statutory and
    nonstatutory mitigating factor. Spreitz I, 
    945 P.2d at 1279
    .
    It then stated that it “must consider any aspect of the
    defendant’s character or record . . . relevant to determining
    whether the death penalty should be imposed.” 
    Id.
     And
    finally, in reaching the conclusion to affirm Spreitz’s death
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                       33
    sentence, the court explained that it had “examin[ed] the
    entire record and reweigh[ed] the applicable aggravating and
    mitigating factors.” 
    Id.
     at 1281–82.
    The Arizona Supreme Court’s acknowledgment of what
    Spreitz argued does not indicate that it relied on or accepted
    that argument as correct. Further, we cannot, given
    McKinney, Poyson, and Greenway, proceed in a decisional
    vacuum.
    Considered in light of the baseline that the Arizona
    Supreme Court was consistently applying its
    unconstitutional causal nexus test in death penalty cases at
    the time Spreitz’s appeal was decided, as well as its citations
    to cases held in McKinney to be applying that standard, we
    are confident that the manner in which the Arizona Supreme
    Court disposed of Spreitz’s evidence of his longstanding
    alcohol and substance abuse confirms that it applied the
    causal nexus test it was using during that period.
    Styers v. Schriro, 
    547 F.3d 1026
     (9th Cir. 2008) supports
    this conclusion. Styers stated that the mere fact that “the
    Arizona Supreme Court stated that it had ‘considered all of
    the proffered mitigation,’” is not sufficient to contradict the
    fact that “its analysis prior to this statement indicated
    otherwise.” 
    Id. at 1035
     (internal citation omitted). In Styers,
    notwithstanding assertions to the contrary, the Arizona
    Supreme Court refused to consider evidence of the
    defendant’s Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (“PTSD”)
    because he had failed to connect it causally to his crimes. 
    Id.
    Here, too, the Arizona Supreme Court’s actual analysis of
    Spreitz’s longstanding alcohol and substance abuse reveals
    that it refused to consider this particular aspect of Spreitz’s
    character free from any connection to the crime. Rather, the
    court’s discussion demonstrates that in evaluating Spreitz’s
    long-term alcohol and substance abuse, it applied a causal
    34                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    nexus test in violation of Eddings and therefore refused, as a
    matter of law, to consider it in assessing Spreitz’s evidence
    of nonstatutory mitigating circumstances.
    To the extent the state argues the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s opinion is ambiguous as to whether it applied an
    unconstitutional causal nexus test or not—and we believe
    that it is not—McKinney requires resolving that ambiguity
    in favor of Spreitz. McKinney held it clear that the Arizona
    Supreme Court “consistently articulated and applied its
    causal nexus test” at the time the trial court imposed
    Spreitz’s death sentence and the Arizona Supreme Court
    reviewed and affirmed that sentence. McKinney, 813 F.3d
    at 803 (emphasis in original). Again, “if there is to be a
    presumption, it is that the Arizona Supreme Court violated
    the dictates of Lockett and Eddings.” Greenway, 866 at
    1095.
    In sum, because (1) the Arizona Supreme Court clearly
    stated that Spreitz’s longstanding alcohol and substance
    abuse was “not essential” to its decision, which was in line
    with the court’s consistent practice of applying a causal
    nexus test; (2) the Arizona Supreme Court cited to Medrano,
    in which it had previously articulated a causal nexus test;
    (3) the Arizona Supreme Court carefully laid out the weight
    it would accord other mitigating factors as opposed to simply
    ignoring them; and (4) the PCR court likewise interpreted
    the Arizona Supreme Court’s opinion as applying a causal
    nexus test, we conclude that the Arizona Supreme Court
    held, as a matter of law, that Spreitz’s long-term alcohol and
    substance abuse was not a nonstatutory mitigating factor and
    therefore refused to consider it. This holding was in clear
    violation of Eddings.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                            35
    3.
    In light of our conclusion that the Arizona Supreme
    Court failed to comply with Eddings, we must next decide
    whether Spreitz was prejudiced by this error. On federal
    habeas review, relief is warranted if an error “had substantial
    and injurious effect or influence” on the challenged decision.
    See Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
    , 623 (1993). The
    petitioner is “not entitled to habeas relief” unless he can
    establish that the error “resulted in actual prejudice.” Davis
    v. Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. 2187
    , 2197 (2015) (internal quotation
    marks omitted). Here, because we are “in grave doubt about
    whether [the Arizona Supreme Court’s] error of federal law
    had substantial and injurious effect or influence in
    determining [whether to affirm Spreitz’s death sentence],
    that error is not harmless. And, [Spreitz] must win.”
    McKinney, 813 F.3d at 822 (quoting O’Neal v. McAninch,
    
    513 U.S. 432
    , 435 (1995)).
    We previously have required resentencing based on
    prejudicial Eddings error where the Arizona Supreme Court
    refused to consider, as a matter of law, mitigation evidence
    “central to” the petitioner’s “plea for leniency.” See id. at
    823; see also Coleman v. Calderon, 
    210 F.3d 1047
    , 1051
    (9th Cir. 2000) (concluding that a penalty-phase jury
    instruction error was not harmless under Brecht because “it
    undermined the very core of Coleman’s plea for life”). 14 For
    the reasons that follow, it is clear that Spreitz’s long-term
    14
    We do not suggest that Brecht prejudice may only be established
    if inappropriately considered mitigating evidence was at “the very core
    of [a defendant’s] plea for life.” Coleman, 
    210 F.3d at 1051
    . It is
    conceivable that other forms of Eddings error could have “a substantial
    and injurious effect” on a defendant’s sentence if they would be
    significant to the sentencer, despite the defendant’s failure to rely on
    them as central to his or her argument. Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 623
    .
    36                        SPREITZ V. RYAN
    alcohol and substance abuse was important mitigation
    evidence, and was so closely related as to become central to
    his plea for leniency. The Arizona Supreme Court’s refusal
    to consider that evidence had a substantial and injurious
    effect on its sentencing determination that requires
    resentencing.
    While a defendant’s evidence of longstanding alcohol
    and/or substance abuse can be probative mitigation evidence
    on its own, a “history of substance abuse [is] substantially
    mitigating when . . . combined with other mitigating
    evidence.” Henry v. Ryan, 
    720 F.3d 1073
    , 1090 (9th Cir.
    2013) (emphasis added) (listing cases and holding that the
    defendant’s alcoholism “would not have had a substantial
    and injurious effect” because it “st[ood] alone, was similar
    to evidence already considered by the sentencing courts, and
    was of limited probative value”) (footnote omitted). 15 Here,
    Spreitz’s evidence regarding his history of alcohol and
    substance abuse—spanning nearly half his life by the time
    he committed the crime at the age twenty-two—was the
    15
    The dissent makes much of Henry, suggesting it dictates the
    outcome of our prejudice analysis. Dissent at 29. Not so. In that case,
    the state court had found that Henry’s intoxication on the day of the
    murder did constitute a statutory mitigating factor but was not
    sufficiently substantial to outweigh the two aggravating factors. Henry,
    720 F.3d at 1090. Henry argued that the state court erred by failing to
    consider evidence of his “historical alcoholism” in addition to his
    intoxication on the day of the crime. Id. We concluded that any error
    was harmless because the history of substance abuse “was similar to
    evidence already considered by the sentencing courts and was of limited
    probative value.” Id. In other words, because the state court had found
    insufficient evidence of alcohol use that was tied to the murder, we could
    not conclude that general alcohol use that was not tied to the murder
    could have been determinative. Here, by contrast, the Arizona Supreme
    Court found that Spreitz’s evidence of intoxication did not rise to the
    level of statutory mitigation. Accordingly, there is not the same
    contextual harmlessness problem as in Henry.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                        37
    factor on which much of his other mitigation evidence
    turned.
    In both his report and his testimony, Dr. Flynn discussed
    at length the extent to which alcohol consumed Spreitz’s life
    in the decade leading up to Reid’s murder. Spreitz began
    drinking when he was twelve or thirteen; by fifteen, he was
    drinking steadily on the weekends and drinking vodka before
    school. According to Dr. Flynn, “[d]rug and alcohol abuse
    dominated his teenage years.” After he left home, Spreitz’s
    drinking intensified: Spreitz experienced blackouts multiple
    times and, a week before the murder, Spreitz was
    “intoxicated a majority of the time.” Dr. Flynn concluded
    that “[i]t appears completely clear from the available
    information that . . . Spreitz had a long-standing problem
    with alcohol which probably reached the level of physical
    dependence.”
    Critically, Spreitz’s decade-long struggle with alcohol
    and other addictive substances reflects the true gravity of his
    “subnormal upbringing,” a mitigating circumstance
    recognized by the Arizona Supreme Court. See Spreitz I,
    
    945 P.2d at 1280
    . Both Spreitz’s sentencing memorandum
    and Dr. Flynn detailed how his difficult childhood led to
    Spreitz’s early dependence on alcohol. For instance, Dr.
    Flynn explained that Spreitz turned to alcohol as a coping
    mechanism to deal with the “pervasive subabusive
    emotional battering and neglect that he received from his
    mother,” whom he described as “punitive, controlling, [and]
    emotionally cold.” Dr. Flynn found that Spreitz “slipped
    quietly into alcoholic numbness” after his “failure to live up
    to his mother’s standards or earn her love.” Reflecting
    parental neglect, Spreitz’s parents “failed to arrange . . . for
    an appropriate rehabilitation program” even though
    “[v]irtually everyone . . . who spent much time with him
    38                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    described him as a heavy drinker.” “Given the intensity and
    duration” of Spreitz’s reliance on alcohol, “the mother (and
    step-father) were either so uninvolved with him to have
    failed to notice the problem, or they were aware of it and
    failed to arrange (or attempt to arrange) for an appropriate
    rehabilitation program.”
    Because Spreitz did not receive treatment during his
    teenage years, his dependence on alcohol only deepened. In
    his sentencing memorandum, Spreitz, too, argued that his
    long-term alcohol abuse reflects the impact that his
    upbringing by an emotionally unavailable, manipulative,
    punitive mother had on him: it was “[n]o wonder that by 12
    or 13 [h]e began drinking alcohol and smoking marijuana.”
    Although the Arizona Supreme Court recognized that
    Spreitz’s “subnormal” upbringing was “a mitigating
    circumstance,” it “accord[ed] it little weight.” Spreitz I,
    
    945 P.2d at 1280
    . Had the court properly considered
    Spreitz’s longstanding history of alcohol abuse in
    conjunction with and as a manifestation of his disturbing
    childhood, both mitigating circumstances—and most
    importantly, the two in combination—would have been
    more compelling.
    The dissent argues that Spreitz’s long-term history of
    alcohol abuse cannot be central to his plea for leniency
    because much of his mitigation evidence focused on his
    “abusive and dysfunctional childhood, upbringing, and
    interactions with his mother,” Dissent at 66, not his history
    of alcohol and substance abuse. This argument, however,
    misses the point, as it overlooks the interlinked relationship
    between Spreitz’s alcoholism and his subnormal childhood:
    Spreitz’s history of alcohol and substance abuse is central to
    evaluating the actual significance of his childhood as a
    mitigating factor, and vice versa.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                            39
    In addition to being a symptom of his dysfunctional
    childhood, Spreitz’s alcohol and substance abuse can be seen
    as linked to his emotional immaturity, another nonstatutory
    mitigating circumstance recognized by the Arizona Supreme
    Court but described as not “significant.” Spreitz I, 
    945 P.2d at 1282
    . In his report, Dr. Flynn explained that Spreitz was
    “very likely to have been socially and emotionally
    immature” due, at least in part, to “[y]ears of alcoholism
    intoxication [that] wipe[d] out many of the . . . healthy
    developmental processes requisite to age-appropriate social
    and emotional maturity.” Similarly, in his sentencing
    memorandum, Spreitz connected “[h]is developmental
    failure” with his “[n]umbing by use of alcohol.” Again, had
    the Arizona Supreme Court properly considered Spreitz’s
    longstanding alcohol and substance abuse, another
    mitigating factor—Spreitz’s emotional immaturity—would
    have been brought into proper perspective.
    Thus, by failing to consider Spreitz’s longstanding
    alcohol and substance abuse, the Arizona Supreme Court
    was left with a critical void in Spreitz’s narrative: Spreitz’s
    subnormal childhood was so emotionally disturbing that it
    led him to drink by the age of twelve or thirteen, which, in
    turn, disrupted his normal development and contributed to
    his emotional immaturity. As both a symptom and cause of
    other mitigating factors, Spreitz’s longstanding alcohol
    abuse was thus central to his plea for leniency. 16 Without
    16
    Contrary to the dissent’s suggestion, Spreitz did not focus on his
    intoxication at the time of the crime to the exclusion of his history of
    alcohol abuse. Dissent at 22–24. Rather, both he and Dr. Flynn
    distinguished between Spreitz’s history of alcohol abuse as nonstatutory
    mitigation and his intoxication at the time of the crime as statutory
    mitigation. It is Spreitz’s history of alcohol abuse that underlies and
    amplifies much of his other mitigation evidence, not his intoxication at
    the time of Reid’s murder.
    40                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    consideration of the evidence of his long-term substance and
    alcohol abuse, the Arizona Supreme Court’s conclusions
    regarding all of Spretiz’s mitigation evidence were
    fundamentally flawed.
    We come to this conclusion fully recognizing, as the
    dissent emphasizes, that “the severity of an aggravating
    circumstance must be considered when determining whether
    an Eddings error is harmless.” Dissent at 71. The Arizona
    Supreme Court described what Spreitz’s “confession and
    physical evidence” revealed: that “Spreitz beat and raped
    [Reid] in a brutal assault that lasted many minutes before he
    crushed her skull.” Spreitz I, 
    945 P.2d at 1279
    . For this
    reason, the Arizona Supreme Court affirmed the sentencing
    court’s finding that Reid’s murder was especially cruel. 
    Id.
    Even so, we found prejudicial nexus-error in McKinney
    where the murder was done in a cruel manner for pecuniary
    gain as part of a double murder. McKinney, 813 F.3d at 823.
    “When the choice is between life and death,” “the risk that
    the death penalty will be imposed in spite of facts which may
    call for a less severe penalty. . . . is unacceptable.” Abdul-
    Kabir v. Quarterman, 
    550 U.S. 233
    , 264 (2007) (quoting
    Lockett v. Ohio, 
    438 U.S. 586
    , 605 (1978)). Accordingly,
    the sentencer “must be able to give meaningful consideration
    and effect to all mitigating evidence that might provide a
    basis for refusing to impose the death penalty on a particular
    individual, notwithstanding the severity of his crime.” Id. at
    247 (emphasis added).
    Here, the Arizona Supreme Court failed to give any
    meaning to Spreitz’s longstanding alcohol and substance
    abuse, an oversight which, in turn, minimized the value of
    other mitigating evidence as well. Because the court’s
    analysis was missing a core component, we “cannot say,
    with fair assurance” that the Arizona Supreme Court’s
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      41
    Eddings error did not affect its decision. McKinney,
    813 F.3d at 822. As a result, the Arizona Supreme Court’s
    refusal to consider the evidence was not harmless under
    Brecht.
    IV. Conclusion
    We reverse in part the district court’s judgment denying
    a writ of habeas corpus. We remand with instructions to
    grant the writ with respect to Spreitz’s sentence unless the
    state, within a reasonable period, either corrects the
    constitutional error in his death sentence or vacates the
    sentence and imposes a lesser sentence consistent with the
    law.
    REVERSED in part and REMANDED.
    TALLMAN, Circuit Judge, dissenting:
    The court declares that Christopher Spreitz’s death
    sentence should be vacated because, applying de novo
    review, the sentencing court and the Arizona Supreme Court
    violated Eddings v. Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
     (1982), and that
    this error was not harmless. I respectfully dissent.
    First, the record does not establish that either court
    unconstitutionally refused to consider relevant mitigating
    evidence. They were simply not persuaded by it. What the
    record clearly shows is the Arizona courts did not find that
    Spreitz’s proffered evidence outweighed the aggravating
    factor of cruelty in the way by which he brutally murdered
    Ruby Reid. Second, even if we determined that the Arizona
    courts did violate Eddings, Spreitz cannot show that this
    error had a “substantial and injurious effect or influence” on
    42                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    his ultimate sentence. Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
    ,
    623 (1993). Given the savage brutality of his crimes and the
    weakness of all the mitigation evidence he presented, any
    remand for a redetermination of the appropriate penalty
    ought to result in the same decision.
    Nonetheless, the majority attempts unsuccessfully to
    navigate the course that Spreitz’s Eddings claim requires
    him to sail to warrant federal habeas relief. In doing so, the
    majority has once again foundered on the shoals of the
    Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996
    (AEDPA), specifically 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    —where so many
    of our prior habeas corpus decisions are wrecked—failing to
    afford the respect due the decisions of our sister state courts
    and taunting the Supreme Court for another capsizing in lieu
    of safe passage.
    I
    We review the Arizona post-conviction relief (PCR)
    court’s decision because it is the last reasoned state court
    decision on Spreitz’s Eddings claim. See Barker v. Fleming,
    
    423 F.3d 1085
    , 1091 (9th Cir. 2005). Under AEDPA we first
    must decide the level of deference to give to that decision by
    determining whether it “was contrary to, or involved an
    unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law,
    as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States.”
    
    Id.
     § 2254(d)(1).
    I do not quarrel with the majority’s determination that
    the PCR court held a mistaken view of what Eddings
    requires, and that we therefore must review Spreitz’s
    Eddings claim de novo. See Castellanos v. Small, 
    766 F.3d 1137
    , 1146 (9th Cir. 2014). However, “we may not grant
    habeas relief simply because of [the PCR court’s]
    § 2254(d)(1) error . . . .” Frantz v. Hazey, 
    533 F.3d 724
    , 735
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                       43
    (9th Cir. 2008) (en banc); see also 
    id. at 728
    , 735–37
    (explaining our “approach to reviewing state court decisions
    that rely on legal principles contradicting clearly established
    Supreme Court law but do not necessarily reach the wrong
    result”).
    On de novo review, Spreitz can meet neither of the two
    requirements to obtain habeas relief on his Eddings claim.
    First, he cannot demonstrate that the state sentencing courts
    actually violated Eddings. And second, even if there was a
    violation, he cannot show that any Eddings error by those
    state courts was prejudicial under Brecht.
    II
    Spreitz’s Eddings claim rests in large part on the
    erroneous assumption that the sentencing court and the
    Arizona Supreme Court failed to consider his history of
    alcohol and substance abuse, unrelated to the offense, as
    non-statutory mitigation when determining his sentence. He
    contends that, by failing to consider all mitigating
    circumstances, the state courts violated Eddings, which
    provides that in capital cases “the sentencer may not refuse
    to consider or be precluded from considering ‘any relevant
    mitigating evidence.’” Skipper v. South Carolina, 
    476 U.S. 1
    , 4 (1986) (quoting Eddings, 
    455 U.S. at 114
    ). Eddings also
    provides that the sentencer “may determine the weight to be
    given relevant mitigating evidence.” 
    455 U.S. at
    114–15.
    Recently, we adopted an erroneous presumption that the
    Arizona Supreme Court repeatedly violated the dictates of
    Eddings by “consistently” applying an unconstitutional
    causal nexus test to all capital cases between 1989 and 2005.
    See McKinney v. Ryan, 
    813 F.3d 798
    , 803 (9th Cir. 2015)
    44                        SPREITZ V. RYAN
    (en banc), cert. denied, 
    137 S. Ct. 39
     (2016). 1 “We did not
    say, however, that the Arizona [Supreme Court] always
    applied it.” See Greenway v. Ryan, 
    866 F.3d 1095
    , 1095 (9th
    Cir. 2017) (per curiam). Notably, in listing the cases in
    which the Arizona courts erroneously applied the causal
    nexus test, McKinney did not include Spreitz’s case. See
    813 F.3d at 815–16, 824–26. And in McKinney, our holding
    resolved only the “precise question” whether the state court
    in that specific case had applied the causal nexus test. Id. at
    804; see also Hedlund v. Ryan, 
    854 F.3d 557
    , 586 n.22 (9th
    Cir. 2017) (“We express no opinion as to how to apply
    McKinney in future Arizona capital cases from the suspect
    time period.”). Each case must be reviewed on its unique
    facts. We therefore must examine the state court decisions
    in Spreitz’s case to determine whether they properly took
    into account all mitigating factors. 2
    1
    The real damage inflicted by the en banc decision in McKinney is
    the broad assumption it adopts that now infects every death sentence
    imposed by Arizona courts for horrendous murders adjudicated in the
    sixteen-year period. It is regrettable that the United States Supreme
    Court denied certiorari in McKinney. But this case presents yet another
    opportunity to right the error in Ninth Circuit death penalty habeas
    jurisprudence.
    2
    In reviewing the last reasoned state court decision, we may
    consider “the record that was before the state court that adjudicated the
    claim on the merits.” Cannedy v. Adams, 
    706 F.3d 1148
    , 1156 (9th Cir.
    2013) (citation omitted). The record before the PCR court in this case
    included the sentencing judge’s decision and the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s direct appeal ruling. Thus, despite the majority’s preference for
    cabining its view of the record to only the Arizona Supreme Court’s
    decision, we must consider both decisions here.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                        45
    A
    At all relevant times in this case, the operative Arizona
    death penalty statute required a sentencing court to “impose
    a sentence of death if the court finds one or more of the
    aggravating circumstances enumerated in [the statute and
    determines] that there are no mitigating circumstances
    sufficiently substantial to call for leniency.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (E) (1993) (current version at 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-751
    (E) (2012)). Arizona law provided five statutory
    mitigating factors, see § 13-703(G), including a modified
    form of diminished capacity: “The defendant’s capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct or to conform his
    conduct to the requirements of the law was significantly
    impaired, but not so impaired as to constitute a defense to
    prosecution.” Id. § 13-703(G)(1). Even our en banc court
    acknowledged, “When applied solely in the context of
    statutory mitigation under § 13-703(G)(1), the causal nexus
    test does not violate Eddings.” McKinney, 813 F.3d at 810.
    But Arizona law also provided for consideration of
    catch-all, non-statutory mitigating evidence that
    encompassed “any factors proffered by the defendant or the
    state that are relevant in determining whether to impose a
    sentence less than death, including any aspect of the
    defendant’s character, propensities or record and any of the
    circumstances of the offense.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G).
    The dictates of Eddings apply to such non-statutory
    mitigating evidence. See McKinney, 813 F.3d at 810
    (“When applied in the context of nonstatutory mitigation, the
    causal nexus test clearly violates Eddings.”). Lastly,
    Arizona law requires the Arizona Supreme Court to
    “independently review the trial court’s findings of
    aggravation and mitigation and the propriety of the death
    46                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    sentence.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703.01
    (A) (1994) (current
    version at 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-755
    (A) (2009)).
    B
    Here, Spreitz cannot show that the sentencing judge, the
    Honorable William N. Sherrill, violated Eddings in
    determining Spreitz’s sentence. At sentencing, Spreitz
    submitted a memorandum that specifically discussed his
    history of substance abuse and cited Eddings; defense
    psychologist Dr. Todd C. Flynn provided the court with a
    psychological evaluation report and testimony specifically
    discussing Spreitz’s history of substance abuse as both
    statutory and non-statutory mitigating factors; and Judge
    Sherrill differentiated between the two types of mitigation
    and ultimately decided that the mitigating evidence did not
    outweigh the aggravating factor of cruelty based on how
    Spreitz murdered Ms. Reid.
    In his written judgment, Judge Sherrill acknowledged
    that “many factors have been submitted in mitigation.”
    Among the mitigating evidence, he observed that Spreitz “in
    his life turned to substance abuse—alcohol and some
    suggestion he was using cocaine and other drugs”—and that
    Spreitz’s “history of intoxication [was] longstanding.” He
    also found that Spreitz “had been abusing substances for
    close to ten years of his life.” Judge Sherrill’s discussion of
    Spreitz’s history of substance abuse unrelated to the crime
    establishes that he considered that evidence in his sentencing
    decision. See Williams v. Stewart, 
    441 F.3d 1030
    , 1057 (9th
    Cir. 2006) (stating that a sentencing court does not violate
    Eddings where it is clear that “the sentencing court
    considered all relevant mitigating evidence that was
    offered”).
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                        47
    There is an important distinction between Judge
    Sherrill’s consideration of Spreitz’s evidence of his long-
    term substance abuse, and Judge Sherrill’s subsequent
    findings regarding the weight he ultimately decided to give
    that evidence.      After discussing Spreitz’s proffered
    mitigating evidence, Judge Sherrill correctly observed that
    the issue was, in weighing the imposition of capital
    punishment, “whether any of these mitigating
    circumstances, individually or cumulatively, can balance or
    outweigh the aggravating circumstances.” And, he finally
    determined that “the mitigating circumstances [were] not
    sufficient to balance the aggravating circumstances, nor
    [were] they sufficiently substantial to call for leniency.” In
    reaching that conclusion, Judge Sherrill specified that he did
    “not believe that intoxication [was] any sort of mitigating
    circumstance.” (Emphasis added.) One should fairly read
    that conclusion to mean that Spreitz’s long history of
    substance abuse was neither a statutory nor a non-statutory
    mitigating factor “sufficiently substantial to call for
    leniency.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (E).
    Under Eddings, Judge Sherrill was free to conclude that
    Spreitz’s mitigating evidence, whether statutory or non-
    statutory, simply did not warrant leniency given the
    aggravating circumstance of how Spreitz cruelly murdered
    Ruby Reid. See Mann v. Ryan, 
    828 F.3d 1143
    , 1159–60 (9th
    Cir. 2016) (holding that defendant “failed to show that the
    mitigating circumstances he had presented,” including a
    history of substance abuse, “outweighed the aggravating
    circumstances of his crimes”), cert. denied, 
    137 S. Ct. 1091
    (2017), 
    137 S. Ct. 1205
     (2017); Henry v. Ryan, 
    720 F.3d 1073
    , 1090 n.11 (9th Cir. 2013) (recognizing that “historical
    alcoholism might [be] considered aggravating as well as
    mitigating, depending on the perspective of the sentencing
    court”). “It is sufficient that a sentencing court state that it
    48                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    found no mitigating circumstances that outweigh the
    aggravating circumstances.” Williams, 
    441 F.3d at 1057
    (quotation omitted).
    Eddings also did not prevent Judge Sherrill from giving
    less weight to Spreitz’s substance abuse history based on a
    lack of nexus to the murder. See Hedlund, 854 F.3d at 587
    n.23 (stating that under Eddings, “a court is free to assign
    less weight to mitigating factors that did not influence a
    defendant’s conduct at the time of the crime”); Styers v.
    Ryan, 
    811 F.3d 292
    , 298–99 (9th Cir. 2015) (holding that the
    Arizona Supreme Court did not violate Eddings in assigning
    little weight to the petitioner’s PTSD in the absence of a
    causal connection to the crime), cert. denied, 
    137 S. Ct. 1332
    (2017). Nor did Eddings prevent Judge Sherrill from
    assigning no weight to Spreitz’s long-term substance abuse
    unrelated to the offense, so long as Judge Sherrill considered
    that evidence, which the record shows he definitely did. See
    Williams, 
    441 F.3d at 1057
     (“Once mitigating evidence is
    allowed in, a finding that there are ‘no mitigating
    circumstances’ does not violate the Constitution.”); Ortiz v.
    Stewart, 
    149 F.3d 923
    , 943 (9th Cir. 1998) (“[T]he
    sentencing court did not refuse to consider mitigating
    evidence; it considered the evidence and found it inadequate
    to justify leniency. That assessment did not violate the
    Constitution.”), overruled in part on other grounds by
    Martinez v. Ryan, 
    566 U.S. 1
     (2012).
    In addition to the above findings, Judge Sherrill also
    added that he did not “believe that [Spreitz’s] substance
    abuse or intoxication impaired [his] ability and capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct to any significant
    degree” under § 13-703(G)(1). At the time, Arizona courts
    were required by law to examine whether evidence of
    alcohol and drug use bore a causal connection to the crime.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                       49
    
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1) (requiring the sentencer to
    consider leniency if the defendant proved that his “capacity
    to appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct or to conform
    his conduct to the requirements of law was significantly
    impaired, but not so impaired as to constitute a defense to
    prosecution”). And, there is no question that Spreitz pursued
    a mitigation strategy at sentencing that attempted to link his
    long-term substance abuse with the kidnap/murder to show
    statutory mitigation under § 13-703(G)(1).
    For example, Spreitz’s sentencing memorandum stated
    that Dr. Flynn’s insights about him were of “the nature, type
    and character contemplated by A.R.S. Section
    13-703(G)(1),” and that “Dr. Flynn’s report [was], indeed,
    relevant and should be considered by the Court as statutory
    mitigating circumstances.” Dr. Flynn’s report and expert
    testimony went to great lengths to argue that Spreitz’s
    alcohol abuse was “very strongly correlated with violent
    behavior . . . .” Judge Sherrill could not respond to Spreitz’s
    argument that § 13-703(G)(1) called for leniency without
    analyzing whether Spreitz had shown a connection between
    his substance abuse and the murder. We cannot infer from
    that causal nexus analysis that Judge Sherrill flatly refused
    to consider any evidence of substance abuse that was not
    causally related to the crime.
    Rather, this record shows that Judge Sherrill
    constitutionally applied a causal nexus test in the context of
    an Arizona statutory mitigating factor, § 13-703(G)(1). See
    McKinney, 813 F.3d at 810 (“When applied solely in the
    context of statutory mitigation . . . , the causal nexus test
    does not violate Eddings.”).         Judge Sherrill’s other
    statements repeatedly demonstrate that he understood
    Eddings’ mandate and considered all of Spreitz’s proffered
    mitigating evidence, but ultimately found that evidence
    50                   SPREITZ V. RYAN
    insufficient to warrant leniency. We are in the same
    situation here that recently confronted our Court in Hedlund.
    See 854 F.3d at 591 (Bea, J., concurring) (“[Although] Judge
    Sheldon constitutionally applied a causal-nexus test in the
    context of an Arizona statutory mitigating factor[,
    § 13-703(G)(1), that] statement does not show that Judge
    Sheldon excluded mitigating evidence from his
    consideration, and Judge Sheldon’s other statements
    repeatedly demonstrate otherwise.”).
    Nor does the record before us support the conclusion that
    Judge Sherrill failed to consider evidence of Spreitz’s long-
    term substance abuse as a non-statutory mitigating factor.
    What we can say for sure is that he was not persuaded by
    that evidence. Judge Sherrill listened to testimony and
    arguments at trial and in the penalty phase, read everything
    submitted, and then deliberated for three days before
    concluding that Spreitz’s mitigation evidence was not
    sufficient to outweigh the evidence in aggravation
    warranting death. There is no Eddings error here.
    C
    Similarly, in its “detailed independent review” of
    Spreitz’s sentence, the Arizona Supreme Court “examined
    the entire record to weigh and consider the aggravating and
    mitigating circumstances.” State v. Spreitz, 
    945 P.2d 1260
    ,
    1278 (Ariz. 1997). Consistent with Eddings, the Arizona
    Supreme Court recognized “that the sentencing judge must
    consider any aspect of the defendant’s character or record
    and any circumstance of the offense relevant to determining
    whether the death penalty should be imposed.” 
    Id. at 1279
    (quotation omitted). And, it recognized “that the weight
    accorded such evidence is within the sentencing judge’s
    discretion.” Id.; see Greenway, 866 F.3d at 1097 (citing
    similar language in the Arizona Supreme Court’s review of
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                       51
    a capital sentence to conclude that the court “did not reject
    any mitigating factor, as a matter of law, on the theory that
    it was not related to the commission of the crime”).
    In that review, the Arizona Supreme Court specifically
    observed that the “record demonstrates defendant’s longtime
    substance abuse problems.” Spreitz, 
    945 P.2d at 1280
    .
    Nonetheless, the court found that Spreitz’s “general
    problems with substance abuse [were] not essential to [its]
    decision”     because,     ultimately,     “the   aggravating
    circumstance of especial cruelty in [Spreitz]’s murder of
    Ruby Reid outweigh[ed] all factors mitigating in favor of
    leniency.” 
    Id. at 1280, 1282
    . The Arizona Supreme Court
    thus rejected, on the merits, Spreitz’s argument that his long-
    term substance abuse constituted either a statutory or non-
    statutory mitigating factor warranting leniency in his case.
    There is no mitigation evidence it refused to consider.
    To the extent that the majority cites Poyson v. Ryan,
    
    879 F.3d 875
     (9th Cir. 2018), for the proposition that
    McKinney, 813 F.3d at 802–03, adopts a per se rule that the
    Arizona Supreme Court applied an unconstitutional causal
    nexus test in all capital cases over a 15-year period, I fully
    agree with Judge Ikuta’s reluctant concurrence in Poyson.
    879 F.3d at 897–900. McKinney was wrongly decided and
    flips the “presumption that state courts know and follow the
    law.” Id. at 897–98 (citing Woodford v. Visciotti, 
    537 U.S. 19
    , 24 (2002)). The record here rebukes even the McKinney
    presumption and in that respect is factually distinguishable
    from both McKinney and Poyson.
    The majority nonetheless concludes that the Arizona
    Supreme Court’s use of the term “not essential” proves that
    the court “require[d] that Spreitz establish a causal
    connection between his longstanding substance abuse and
    the murder before considering and weighing the evidence as
    52                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    a nonstatutory mitigating factor.” Op. at 22–23, 29. Not so.
    We can reasonably interpret “not essential” to mean
    inconsequential, which we have previously defined in a
    similar context as having little effect on the outcome. See
    Landrigan v. Stewart, 
    272 F.3d 1221
    , 1230 (9th Cir. 2001)
    (“At any rate, any error in failing to consider Landrigan’s
    use of alcohol and drugs would have been inconsequential;
    it would have had no effect whatsoever on the outcome.”),
    adopted sub nom. Landrigan v. Schriro, 
    501 F.3d 1147
     (9th
    Cir. 2007) (en banc).
    The majority reasons that, unlike the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s consideration of Spreitz’s substance abuse history
    unrelated to the murder, “when the court considered other
    mitigating factors, it specifically discussed the weight it
    would give to those factors . . . .” Op. at 31. But the law has
    never imposed an obligation on the sentencer to explicitly
    disclose the value it assigns to every piece of mitigating
    evidence. “The U.S. Supreme Court has ‘never held that a
    specific method for balancing mitigating and aggravating
    factors in a capital sentencing proceeding is constitutionally
    required.’” Styers, 811 F.3d at 298 (quoting Kansas v.
    Marsh, 
    548 U.S. 163
    , 175 (2006)). Nor did McKinney
    abrogate the principle that a sentencing court is not required
    to “itemize and discuss every piece of evidence offered in
    mitigation.” Jeffers v. Lewis, 
    38 F.3d 411
    , 418 (9th Cir.
    1994) (en banc). “We have determined that a sentencing
    court need not specifically discuss each individual item of
    mitigating evidence so long as it appears to have considered
    all relevant evidence.” Ortiz, 
    149 F.3d at 943
    . This is
    particularly important when reviewing Eddings claims
    because otherwise we could infer that a sentencing court
    refused to consider any piece of evidence to which it did not
    expressly assign a value, even though it sufficiently
    discussed that proffered evidence. That is not the law.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                        53
    For example, in Jeffers, our en banc court held that the
    state court’s “failure to list and discuss each item of evidence
    [that the defendant] offered in mitigation” did not
    demonstrate that the “court neglected to consider all of his
    mitigation evidence.” 
    38 F.3d at
    417–18. Instead, we held
    that there was no clear requirement under either Arizona law
    or the federal Constitution that the sentencer itemize and
    discuss each piece of evidence offered in mitigation. 
    Id. at 418
    . And, we held that the sentencing court there clearly
    considered all such evidence. 
    Id.
     In addition, a sentencing
    court “need not exhaustively analyze each mitigating factor
    as long as a reviewing federal court can discern from the
    record that the state court did indeed consider all mitigating
    evidence offered by the defendant.” Moormann v. Schriro,
    
    426 F.3d 1044
    , 1055 (9th Cir. 2005) (quotation omitted); see
    also Lopez v. Schriro, 
    491 F.3d 1029
    , 1039 (9th Cir. 2007)
    (observing that there is no “clearly established Supreme
    Court precedent setting forth the record the sentencing court
    must make in order to permit sufficient appellate review”
    (quotation omitted)). We can easily make that determination
    here.
    The majority also focuses on the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s additional finding that Spreitz “was [not] impaired
    by alcohol consumption to an extent that it interfered with
    his ‘capacity to appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct
    or to conform his conduct to the requirements of the law.’”
    Op. at 28 (quoting Spreitz, 
    945 P.2d at
    1280–81). But this
    statement does not mean that the Arizona Supreme Court
    refused to consider Spreitz’s long-term substance abuse
    unrelated to the murder. On the contrary, as the majority
    recognizes, the Arizona Supreme Court’s “decision . . .
    suggest[ed] the court knew, understood, and applied the law
    with respect to Eddings.” Id. at 32. For example, the
    Arizona Supreme Court stated: “In our review, we have
    54                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    been mindful that the sentencing judge must consider any
    aspect of the defendant’s character or record and any
    circumstance of the offense relevant to determining whether
    the death penalty should be imposed.” Spreitz, 
    945 P.2d at 1279
     (quotations omitted) (emphasis added).           After
    independently “weighing the mitigating circumstances both
    individually and cumulatively against the aggravating
    circumstance,” it ultimately found that “the aggravator of
    especial cruelty outweighed all other circumstances.” 
    Id. at 1280
    . Those findings do not violate Eddings. They reflect
    a careful consideration of all of the evidence, ultimately
    concluding that the death sentence was warranted here
    despite what Spreitz offered in mitigation. Thus, there was
    no Eddings violation.
    III
    Even if we were to determine that the state courts
    committed Eddings error by failing to consider Spreitz’s
    long-term substance abuse unrelated to the offense, Spreitz
    cannot show that this error was prejudicial because the
    violent manner in which he abducted and murdered Ruby
    Reid trenchantly outweighed all evidence proffered in
    mitigation. See Greenway, 866 F.3d at 1100 (denying
    habeas relief on petitioner’s Eddings claim because the
    Arizona Supreme Court’s Eddings error was harmless).
    Thus, even assuming that the state courts unconstitutionally
    excluded that evidence, their factual determinations make
    clear that the evidence would have been entitled to little
    mitigating weight in their ultimate sentencing
    determinations.
    “The harmless-error standard on habeas review provides
    that ‘relief must be granted’ only if the error ‘had substantial
    and injurious effect or influence in determining the [sentence
    imposed].’” McKinney, 813 F.3d at 822 (quoting Brecht,
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      55
    
    507 U.S. at 623
    ). The United States Supreme Court has
    distinguished this harmless error standard from the standard
    applicable to cases on direct review, which require merely a
    “reasonable possibility” that the error affected the outcome
    of the proceedings. See Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at
    634–38 (citing
    Chapman v. California, 
    386 U.S. 18
    , 24 (1967)). Unlike
    cases on direct review, “granting habeas relief merely
    because there is a ‘reasonable possibility’ that [the] error
    contributed to the [outcome of the proceedings] is at odds
    with the historic meaning of habeas corpus.” Id. at 637
    (citation and quotations omitted). As such, “an error that
    may justify reversal on direct appeal will not necessarily
    support a collateral attack on a final judgment.” Id. at 634
    (citation and quotations omitted).
    In McKinney, we clarified that a state court’s Eddings
    violation is harmless if we can “say[] with fair assurance”
    that “the judgment was not substantially swayed by the
    error.” 813 F.3d at 822 (quoting Kotteakos v. United States,
    
    328 U.S. 750
    , 765 (1946)) (emphasis added). On the other
    hand, an Eddings error is not harmless if we are in “grave
    doubt” about whether it had a substantial and injurious effect
    or influence in determining the sentence imposed. 
    Id.
    (quoting O’Neal v. McAninch, 
    513 U.S. 432
    , 436 (1995)).
    McKinney held that the excluded evidence there “was
    important mitigating evidence” because it was “central to
    [McKinney’s] plea for leniency.” 813 F.3d at 823 (emphasis
    added). It cited Coleman v. Calderon, 
    210 F.3d 1047
     (9th
    Cir. 2000), where we held that an unconstitutional jury
    instruction at sentencing was not harmless because “it
    undermined the very core of Coleman’s plea for life.” 
    Id. at 1051
     (emphasis added).
    Here, based on what the Arizona courts repeatedly said,
    there is no “grave doubt” as to whether any Eddings error
    56                   SPREITZ V. RYAN
    substantially influenced or swayed Spreitz’s ultimate
    sentence. The courts at every level consistently found that
    “the aggravating circumstance of especial cruelty in
    [Spreitz’s] murder of Ruby Reid outweigh[ed] all factors
    mitigating in favor of leniency.” Spreitz, 
    945 P.2d at 1282
    .
    In considering the entire record, the Arizona Supreme Court
    explained:
    We agree with the sentencing judge that
    defendant’s upbringing was subnormal. The
    record supports the judge’s conclusion that
    defendant’s home life was sadly lacking and
    that his mother’s erratic behavior toward
    defendant     inhibited    his        emotional
    development and social skills . . . . Although
    we recognize defendant’s upbringing as a
    mitigating circumstance, we accord it little
    weight.     While defendant’s inadequate
    upbringing may have contributed to his
    emotional immaturity and undeveloped
    humanitarian skills, we concur with
    defendant’s statement at his sentencing
    hearing that “people that have had as bad a
    background or worse haven’t killed. And I
    don’t want what everyone has said about my
    background to be an excuse for what’s
    happened.”
    ....
    The record demonstrates defendant’s
    longtime substance abuse problems. We
    note, however, that defendant’s general
    problems with substance abuse are not
    essential to our decision here. We therefore
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      57
    decline to conclude that defendant was
    impaired by alcohol consumption to an extent
    that it interfered with his “capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct or
    to conform his conduct to the requirements of
    the law.” A.R.S. § 13-703(G)(1) . . . .
    [W]e find that defendant expressed remorse
    for the victim’s death on more than one
    occasion . . . . We recognize remorse as a
    nonstatutory      mitigating    factor     ....
    However, defendant’s remorse for his actions
    does little to counterbalance especial cruelty
    as a serious aggravating circumstance in Ms.
    Reid’s murder. According to defendant’s
    confession, when he left Ms. Reid in the
    desert early the morning of May 19, 1989, he
    did not know whether she was alive or dead.
    He confessed that he rode his bicycle out to
    the murder site several days later to see if her
    body was still there, hoping that it would not
    be, that she was still alive. We would find
    defendant’s remorse a more compelling
    mitigating factor if, for example, it had
    prompted him to report his actions toward
    Ms. Reid to the authorities.
    The sentencing judge found that defendant’s
    ability to appreciate the wrongfulness of his
    conduct was not impaired on the night of the
    murder to any significant extent by substance
    abuse, emotional disorders, situational stress,
    or by a combination of these. Our review of
    the record convinces us that the trial court’s
    finding was proper . . . .
    58                   SPREITZ V. RYAN
    We agree that the record supports the
    sentencing judge’s findings that defendant
    had no previous adult felony convictions, no
    prior record of acts of violence, and that
    defendant is capable of rehabilitation. We
    also find that the sentencing judge correctly
    rejected defendant’s age of twenty-two as a
    mitigating circumstance and properly found
    that his emotional immaturity was not a
    significant mitigating factor.
    After examining the entire record and
    reweighing the applicable aggravating and
    mitigating factors, we find that the
    aggravating circumstance of especial cruelty
    in defendant’s murder of Ruby Reid
    outweighs all factors mitigating in favor of
    leniency.
    ....
    We have conducted an independent review of
    defendant’s aggravating and mitigating
    circumstances as required by A.R.S. section
    13-703.01 and find that the mitigating
    circumstances      cumulatively      are   not
    sufficiently substantial to warrant leniency in
    relation to the aggravating circumstance of
    cruelty.
    Id. at 1280–83.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                        59
    Despite this explanatory language summarizing its
    analysis of all of the evidence from the sentencing hearing,
    the majority nonetheless insists that the Arizona Supreme
    Court refused to consider Spreitz’s long-term substance
    abuse as a non-statutory mitigating factor, and concludes this
    refusal “had a substantial and injurious effect on [Spreitz’s
    sentence].” Op. at 35–36. My colleagues reason that
    “Spreitz’s long-term alcohol and substance abuse was
    important mitigation evidence . . . central to his plea for
    leniency.” Id. The record belies that characterization.
    A
    Unlike McKinney and Coleman, Spreitz’s history of
    substance abuse unrelated to the murder was not “central” to
    his plea for leniency or at the very core of his plea for life.
    Instead, Spreitz argued at sentencing that he deserved
    leniency because of, among other things, (1) his intoxication,
    age, and emotional immaturity at the time of the crime;
    (2) his disruptive childhood; (3) his abusive home
    environment; (4) his emotionally cold mother; (5) his poor
    social adjustment; (6) a persistent pattern of rejection; (7) the
    absence of a healthy role model; (8) a lack of economic and
    emotional support; (9) his lack of a high school education;
    (10) the absence of adult convictions and violent behavior;
    (11) his low risk of future danger; (12) his good character;
    (13) his good behavior while in jail; and (14) his
    rehabilitative nature. See, e.g., Spreitz, 
    945 P.2d at 1279
    (“At sentencing, defendant argued as statutory and
    nonstatutory mitigating factors: (1) his dysfunctional family
    life and lack of socialization; (2) a history of alcohol and
    drug abuse; (3) his expressions of remorse; (4) his impaired
    capacity to appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct,
    A.R.S. § 13-703(G)(1); (5) his good behavior while
    incarcerated; (6) his lack of adult convictions; (7) no prior
    60                   SPREITZ V. RYAN
    record of violent tendencies; and (8) his age at the time of
    the murder, A.R.S. § 13-703(G)(5).”).          Specifically,
    Spreitz’s sentencing memorandum posited that:
    The Defendant’s background and upbringing
    are ripe with numerous mitigating factors:
    1. He faced a disruptive middle childhood.
    2. Punitive and abusive behavior toward
    [Spreitz].
    3. An emotionally cold mother.
    4. Poor social adjustment with peers.
    5. No healthy role model.
    6. Drug and alcohol abuse.
    7. [That] Spreitz was forced to live on his
    own without economic or emotional support.
    8. Persistent pattern of rejection.
    In addition, Spreitz devoted a large portion of his
    sentencing memorandum to explaining how his childhood
    abuse, dysfunctional upbringing, developmental immaturity,
    and emotional problems contributed to his commission of
    the murder:
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      61
    For Chris, as with other chronically rejected,
    neglected and devalued children, there was
    no escaping [his] deep seated anger and
    resentment. The desperate, quiet, battle
    wrestling inside of Chris as he sought to
    please [his mother] and was rejected could
    not be numbed forever by alcohol. His
    developmental failure included the non-
    development of personal insight and conflict
    resolution skills. He could not control,
    understand or deal with the anger. Numbing
    by use of alcohol and trysts with older women
    were but stop-gap measures. His fragile
    facade was ready to crack. Each failure
    brought Chris closer to the edge. He crossed
    that point with the victim. The result was
    inevitable [as] Chris had no way to
    compensate for a lifetime of misdirected
    development, through a dysfunctional life
    and family, especially when combined with
    arrested and distorted development and
    alcoholism . . . .
    Chris’s background is a relevant and
    powerful mitigating factor with a
    determinative factor culminating in the
    instant offense. When a person’s background
    has an impact [on] his behavior beyond his
    control, as here, such a circumstance is
    clearly mitigation entitled to great
    [deference]. Add to that the family and
    abusive environment and [this] mitigation
    clearly outweighs any possible claim of
    aggravation . . . . The situational stress build
    up, including rejection by his mother, his
    62                      SPREITZ V. RYAN
    girlfriend, and again that night, coupled with
    poorly developed coping skills and alcohol
    certainly mitigates the act.
    (Emphasis added.) 3
    But the majority nonetheless wishes to recast the defense
    theories and reweigh the facts, as if we were conducting a
    direct review. The majority singles out Dr. Flynn’s
    observations that (1) Spreitz began drinking alcohol and
    smoking marijuana at age twelve or thirteen, (2) Spreitz
    drank steadily by age fifteen, (3) Spreitz’s “alcohol abuse
    continued to intensify after he left home,” (4) Spreitz’s
    alcoholism reached the level of physical dependence, and
    (5) a “variety of persons” described Spreitz as a heavy
    drinker, as intoxicated most of the time, and as having
    blackouts while drinking alcohol. Those observations,
    however, do not make Spreitz’s evidence of his longstanding
    alcoholism, with no connection to the crime, central to his
    plea for leniency.
    Instead, Spreitz presented his long-term substance abuse
    primarily to establish the statutory mitigating factors under
    § 13-703(G)(1) and § 13-703(G)(5). As to § 13-703(G)(1),
    Dr. Flynn repeatedly emphasized that Spreitz’s lifetime of
    substance abuse contributed to his murder of Ms. Reid.
    Notably, Dr. Flynn’s report opined that:
    The research on violent behavior shows a
    strong correlation with alcohol intoxication.
    3
    Likewise, Spreitz claims in this appeal that his lawyer was
    ineffective at sentencing by failing to present witnesses who had
    extensive evidence about his early development, family history, head
    injuries, substance abuse, and emotional problems. We have rejected
    that claim in a contemporaneously filed memorandum disposition.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                     63
    Given [Spreitz’s] history, I can see a
    perceived rejection by two women in the
    same evening as especially disturbing to him,
    particularly when intoxicated, to the point at
    which he lost aggressive control, disinhibited
    by the alcohol intoxication . . . .
    My best guess is that he was drunk, hurt and
    angry at the unwillingness of his girlfriend to
    let him into her apartment, startled into an
    alcoholic rage at the angry confrontation by
    the victim, and ended up venting the years of
    stored up rage at her.
    And although several factors that normally
    predict violence were not present, there is
    alcoholism—one of the strongest correlates
    of violent behavior. And, there is the
    emotional, sexual maladjustment that comes
    from his lifetime of misdirected development
    in a dysfunctional family, combined with
    arrested and/or distorted adult development
    because of the alcoholism . . . .
    1. Given the history of alcoholism . . . a
    significant but unknown degree of alcohol
    intoxication is likely. Alcohol intoxication
    has a well-documented disinhibiting effect
    which frequently includes losses of control of
    angry emotions and aggressive behavior.
    2. [Spreitz’s] history strongly suggests years
    of early experiences likely to have caused a
    build-up of pent-up angry, aggressive
    feelings toward women generally (and older
    64                     SPREITZ V. RYAN
    women especially) which may have burst
    forth with uncontrollable intensity with or
    without alcohol intoxication. Only trivial
    provocation is required for this type of
    aggression explosion, termed an Intermittent
    Explosive Disorder by DSM-IV.
    3. Still more likely is that a combination of
    1. and 2. above contributed to an
    uncontrollable outburst of aggression.
    (Emphasis added.)
    Dr. Flynn also gave extensive testimony on how
    Spreitz’s substance abuse contributed to the impairment of
    his mental state “in terms of conforming his behavior to his
    understanding of the law and right and wrong generally.” At
    the aggravation-mitigation hearing, Dr. Flynn went to great
    lengths to opine that Spreitz’s alcohol abuse was “very
    strongly correlated with violent behavior.” Dr. Flynn also
    testified that Spreitz’s parents’ failure to treat his alcoholism
    during his teenage years was significant because it increased
    his violence potential: “[A]lcohol is probably the most
    common, strongest correlative . . . with violent behavior
    . . . , doubling the risk of violent behavior and I think the
    absence of successful treatment for alcoholism is likely to
    have been a significant and maybe a sine qua non that went
    on in this offense.” (Emphasis added.)
    In light of the evidence presented by Dr. Flynn, it is hard
    to say that the Arizona courts did not consider the effect of
    both his intoxication and his history of substance abuse as
    required under § 13-703(G)(1). They just weren’t persuaded
    by it. Rather, they reasonably and properly found that
    Spreitz’s history of alcohol abuse was not sufficiently
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                       65
    influential on his ability to conform his conduct to the law or
    his ability to appreciate the consequences at the time he
    viciously murdered Ms. Reid. Contrary to the majority’s
    suggestion, Op. at 28–29, it cannot be said that the Arizona
    courts never considered his longstanding alcoholism under
    § 13-703(G)(1) in the first place.
    As to the statutory mitigating factor under
    § 13-703(G)(5), Dr. Flynn explained how Spreitz’s history
    of substance abuse contributed to his emotional immaturity:
    “When you spend most of your teenage years drunk or
    stoned, it has not only been my observation in criminal
    populations but my observations clinically . . . that virtually
    all heavily drugged teenagers [are] socially and emotionally
    immature as having substance abuse problems.” (Emphasis
    added.) Dr. Flynn also testified that the lack of a treatment
    effort in Spreitz’s home to deal with his alcoholism was
    significant because it showed a lack of proper supervision
    and parenting during his developing years, which
    contributed to his emotional immaturity under
    § 13-703(G)(5):
    [The lack of any treatment effort for Spreitz’s
    alcoholism] is consistent with an uncaring
    parent to have a child which is stealing booze
    out of the house from the early teenage years,
    who shows up drunk in his early teenage life
    and everybody in the person’s life recognizes
    there’s a serious alcoholic problem and yet
    the parent either does one of two things,
    doesn’t care enough to notice or doesn’t care
    enough to do anything about it. That’s
    important in and of itself in my opinion from
    the standpoint of an evaluation of parenting.
    66                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    Thus, where Spreitz did not present his long-term
    substance abuse to explain his conduct at the time of the
    murder under § 13-703(G)(1), he did so to plead for leniency
    based on his emotional immaturity under § 13-703(G)(5).
    Any evidence that Spreitz presented of his long-term
    substance abuse as non-statutory mitigation was cursory and
    only ancillary to the considerable evidence he adduced to
    explain how his past addiction affected his conduct and
    immaturity at the time of the murder.
    Moreover, the significant evidence presented regarding
    Spreitz’s abusive and dysfunctional childhood, upbringing,
    and interactions with his mother stands as further support
    that Spreitz’s history of alcohol and substance abuse was not
    central to his plea for leniency. Dr. Flynn testified to those
    matters at length:
    [Spreitz grew up in] a fully pathological
    home environment, [which] include[d]
    physical and emotional neglect, physical
    abuse and emotional neglect and possibly
    emotional abuse by the mother according to
    which there was no hint of acceptance of him
    in spite of ongoing efforts on his part to
    please her. In fact of all the people that I
    interviewed and all the interviews that I read,
    the only favorable, the only person who had
    a single favorable thing to say about the
    mother was Mr. Spreitz himself. From all
    other persons they described her in the most
    negative terms. His sister described herself
    as being saved from the pathological effects
    of the home by the fact she ran away and was
    placed in a group home. Mr. and Mrs. Spreitz
    described most of the mother’s behavior in a
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      67
    manner that would be considered pathogenic
    by anyone who knew anything about
    psychology and parenting . . . .
    [There is] massive evidence from a
    psychological point . . . that there was a cold
    uncaring mother who was anything but
    sensitive to his needs, whom he was never
    able to please. By this hypothesis it is most
    common for children so treated to harbor a
    store of anger, and it is consistent with this
    train of thought that the anger was breaking
    down partially by chronicity and partially by
    series     of      emotionally      unsuccessful
    relationships with women, a tendency to
    orient toward older women in the months
    leading up to the offense[.] [S]hortly before
    the offense . . . there had been a rejection by
    a current girlfriend . . . . [T]his by itself and
    probably especially this under the
    disinhibiting influence of alcohol possibly
    result[ed] in an explosion of aggressive
    behavior especially toward a woman and
    especially toward an older woman. The
    recently pent-up rage accumulated over the
    year aggravated the more recent months
    which may be considered by the Court to
    constitute an outburst of behavior that means
    an inability to conform one’s behavior [to the
    requirements of the law].
    (Emphasis added.)
    And, when Judge Sherrill asked Dr. Flynn what he
    considered were non-statutory mitigating factors in this
    68                       SPREITZ V. RYAN
    case, Dr. Flynn responded: “[T]he likely relationship
    between the alcoholism and the violence generally and this
    offense specifically and . . . the deprived pathogenic home
    environment [are what] I would consider non-statutory
    factors.” (Emphasis added.) In the face of this record, I am
    at a loss to understand how my colleagues can say that
    Spreitz’s history of substance abuse as a non-statutory
    mitigating factor was central to or at the very core of
    Spreitz’s plea for leniency. 4
    B
    Two other cases where we have found Arizona courts’
    Eddings errors to be harmless, Henry v. Ryan, 
    720 F.3d 1073
    (9th Cir. 2013), and Stokley v. Ryan, 
    705 F.3d 401
     (9th Cir.
    2012), are instructive here.
    1
    In Henry, the Arizona courts found a statutory mitigating
    factor under § 13-703(G)(1)—namely, that “Henry’s
    capacity to appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct or to
    conform his conduct to the requirements of law was
    significantly impaired . . . because of his consumption of
    alcohol on the day of the murder.” 720 F.3d at 1089–90.
    Nonetheless, the courts imposed the death penalty because
    they “agreed that the mitigation was not sufficiently
    4
    The majority does not take issue with the fact that the Arizona
    courts considered Spreitz’s substance abuse history in the statutory
    mitigating context or that they found it insufficient to outweigh the
    aggravating factor of cruelty. “When applied solely in the context of
    statutory mitigation,” the “causal nexus test does not violate Eddings.”
    McKinney, 813 F.3d at 810.
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                              69
    substantial to call for leniency” in light of two aggravating
    factors. Id. at 1090.
    As with Spreitz here, on habeas review, we assumed that
    the state courts violated Eddings by failing to consider
    Henry’s history of alcohol abuse as a non-statutory
    mitigating factor. However, we denied habeas relief because
    Henry failed to show that the Eddings error had a
    “substantial and injurious effect or influence” on his
    sentence. Id. at 1087–89 (quoting Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 623
    ).
    We reasoned that, “in imposing the death penalty, the
    Arizona courts already considered Henry’s intoxication at
    the time of the murder as a mitigating factor” and concluded
    that it was “not sufficient to call for leniency.” Id. at 1090.
    And:
    Given the similar nature of the mitigation, the
    additional evidence of Henry’s historical
    alcoholism would have had minimal
    mitigating value.       If the state courts
    concluded that intoxication with a causal
    connection to the crime was not sufficient to
    call for leniency, it is highly doubtful that
    they would have considered alcoholism
    without a causal connection to be sufficient.
    Id. 5
    Similarly, here, the Arizona courts agreed that Spreitz’s
    substance abuse at the time of the offense was not sufficient
    to call for leniency. In addition, they found that Spreitz
    could not show statutory mitigation under § 13-703(G)(1)
    5
    Although Henry involved different facts, as the majority points out,
    its reasoning applies fully to Spreitz’s case. Op. at 36, n.15.
    70                   SPREITZ V. RYAN
    because his “ability to appreciate the wrongfulness of his
    conduct was not impaired on the night of the murder to any
    significant extent by substance abuse.” Spreitz, 
    945 P.2d at 1281
    . The majority does not take issue with these findings.
    As in Henry, the Arizona courts’ consideration of Spreitz’s
    long-term substance abuse unrelated to the offense would
    have had minimal mitigating value because of its similarity
    to the evidence already rejected. Henry, 720 F.3d at 1090;
    see also Landrigan, 
    272 F.3d at
    1230 & n.9 (holding that,
    where the sentencing court rejected the petitioner’s “alleged
    intoxication and past history of drug use as a statutory
    mitigating factor” and “did not go on to consider them as a
    nonstatutory mitigating factor,” any “error in failing to
    consider Landrigan’s use of alcohol and drugs would have
    been inconsequential; it would have had no effect
    whatsoever on the outcome”); Wong v. Belmontes, 
    558 U.S. 15
    , 23 (2009) (“The sentencing jury was thus ‘well
    acquainted’ with Belmontes’ background and potential
    humanizing features. Additional evidence on these points
    would have offered an insignificant benefit, if any at all.”
    (citation omitted)).
    The majority thus errs by failing to apply Henry’s
    reasoning to conclude that any Eddings error was harmless
    here. See Hart v. Massanari, 
    266 F.3d 1155
    , 1172 (9th Cir.
    2001) (“[I]f a controlling precedent is determined to be on
    point, it must be followed.”). If direct evidence of
    substance-induced intoxication on the night of the murder
    was insufficient to outweigh the aggravated circumstances
    of the crime, a long history of drug and alcohol abuse would
    fare no better.
    2
    In Stokley, we assumed that the Arizona Supreme Court
    committed Eddings error by failing to consider Stokley’s
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      71
    abusive childhood and good behavior in jail because of a
    lack of causal nexus. 705 F.3d at 403–04. We held,
    however, that this error was harmless because there were
    three aggravating circumstances, including that Stokley—
    like Spreitz—had “committed the offense in an especially
    heinous, cruel, and depraved manner.” Id. at 404. We noted
    the gruesome details of Stokley’s offense, including (1) that
    he had sexual intercourse with his victims; (2) that the
    victims’ bodies (two young girls) were violently beaten; and
    (3) that the victims’ bodies were dragged to and thrown
    down a mineshaft. Id. at 405 n.1. We also observed that
    both the sentencing court and the Arizona Supreme Court
    consistently determined that “leniency was inappropriate.”
    Id. at 405. We found no likelihood “that, but for a failure to
    fully consider Stokley’s family history or his good behavior
    in jail during pre-trial incarceration, the Arizona courts
    would have come to a different conclusion” as to Stokley’s
    sentence. Id.
    Although Stokley’s facts were relatively more egregious
    than the facts here—Stokley involved three aggravating
    circumstances instead of one and Stokley’s victims were
    under the age of fifteen—Stokley nonetheless informs us that
    the severity of an aggravating circumstance must be
    considered when determining whether an Eddings error is
    harmless. Here, both the sentencing court and the Arizona
    Supreme Court consistently ruled that leniency was
    inappropriate because of the especially cruel manner in
    which Spreitz kidnapped and murdered Ruby Reid. Spreitz,
    
    945 P.2d at 1266
    , 1278–79 (citing 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13
    -
    703(F)(6)). The crime scene photographs alone give
    compelling support to that ruling, showing Ms. Reid’s body
    beaten beyond recognition by heavy rocks. The pathologist
    underscored the extensive damage to her body revealed on
    autopsy.
    72                     SPREITZ V. RYAN
    Arizona courts consider five factors in “determining
    whether a murder was especially heinous, cruel or depraved:
    (1) relishing the murder, (2) infliction of gratuitous violence,
    (3) needless mutilation of the victim, (4) senselessness of the
    crime, and (5) helplessness of the victim.” Gulbrandson v.
    Ryan, 
    738 F.3d 976
    , 984 (9th Cir. 2013) (citing State v.
    Gretzler, 
    659 P.2d 1
    , 11–12 (Ariz. 1983) (en banc)). “A
    finding of cruelty is warranted when the defendant inflicts
    on the victim mental anguish or physical abuse before the
    victim’s death.” Spreitz, 
    945 P.2d at 1278
    . “Cruelty is found
    when the victim is conscious at the time of the offense in
    order to suffer pain and distress.” 
    Id.
     (citation and alterations
    omitted).
    Here, the Arizona courts found that Ms. Reid suffered
    tremendous mental and physical pain when she was forced
    into Spreitz’s car trunk and transported to the desert where
    she was beaten, sexually assaulted, and eventually murdered.
    
    Id. at 1265, 1278
    . Judge Sherrill observed: “At the scene of
    the murder the victim was thoroughly beaten. The autopsy
    showed, in addition to the death-causing blows to the head,
    five ribs broken, eighteen bruises and grab marks, internal
    bruising and bleeding, lacerations[,] and a broken jaw.”
    Spreitz did not confess to kidnapping Ms. Reid, but did
    admit to beating her as she fought back, removing her
    clothes, having intercourse with her, and smashing her in the
    head with a rock when she would not stop yelling. 
    Id.
    Physical evidence found at the scene of the murder
    corroborated Spreitz’s confession: Ms. Reid’s clothing,
    including her torn brassiere, was strewn in one area of the
    scene, and photographs of the area vividly depicted drag
    marks running from that area to the spot where Ms. Reid’s
    body and the bloody rocks were found. According to
    Spreitz’s confession, when he left Ms. Reid lying in the
    desert on the morning of May 19, 1989, he did not know
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      73
    whether she was still alive or dead. Also significant to Judge
    Sherrill’s finding of mental anguish was that Ms. Reid had
    defecated in and on her clothing. See 
    id. at 1265
    , 1278–79.
    In its independent review of these facts, the Arizona
    Supreme Court agreed that Spreitz had murdered Ms. Reid
    in an especially cruel manner. 
    Id. at 1278
    . The Arizona
    Supreme Court highlighted Spreitz’s “own admission that he
    beat her as she fought back and hit her with the rock when
    she would not stop yelling,” which it found was “clear
    evidence of [Ms. Reid’s] conscious suffering.” 
    Id. at 1279
    .
    The court found that Spreitz’s confession and the physical
    evidence all pointed to the conclusion that Spreitz “beat and
    raped [Ms. Reid] in a brutal assault that lasted many minutes
    before he crushed her skull.” 
    Id.
     My colleagues in the
    majority do not quarrel with that finding.
    Thus, even assuming that the Arizona courts failed to
    consider Spreitz’s evidence of long-term substance abuse
    unrelated to the crime, it is unlikely their consideration of
    that evidence would have substantially altered their ultimate
    decision to sentence Spreitz to death based on the aggravated
    manner in which Ms. Reid met her death. And we cannot
    say “with fair assurance” that the sentence they imposed was
    substantially swayed by their failure to consider that
    evidence. McKinney, 813 F.3d at 822 (quoting Kotteakos,
    
    328 U.S. at 765
    ).
    Further, Eddings allows the Arizona courts “to consider
    the absence of a causal connection when assessing the
    quality and strength of [mitigating] evidence.” Henry,
    720 F.3d at 1090. It does not prevent the Arizona courts
    from “assign[ing] less weight to mitigating factors that did
    not influence a defendant’s conduct at the time of the crime.”
    Hedlund, 854 F.3d at 587 n.23. The Arizona Supreme Court
    has recognized this principle in its more recent cases. See,
    74                    SPREITZ V. RYAN
    e.g., State v. Newell, 
    132 P.3d 833
    , 849 (Ariz. 2006) (en
    banc) (“We do not require that a nexus between the
    mitigating factors and the crime be established before we
    consider the mitigation evidence. But the failure to establish
    such a causal connection may be considered in assessing the
    quality and strength of the mitigation evidence.” (citation
    omitted)). Thus, we can confidently say that if Spreitz were
    resentenced, the Arizona courts would give even less weight
    to his history of substance abuse unrelated to the crimes in
    balancing that evidence against what he did to Ruby Reid.
    C
    The majority cites Henry for the broad proposition that
    “a ‘history of substance abuse [is] substantially mitigating
    when . . . combined with other mitigating evidence.’” Op.
    at 36 (emphasis omitted) (quoting Henry, 720 F.3d at 1090).
    But the majority has not offered up any authority that reaches
    this conclusion under factually-similar circumstances.
    Indeed, unlike the three cases Henry relies upon in making
    this statement, Spreitz’s defense counsel presented
    considerable evidence at sentencing of his lifelong history of
    substance abuse, his mental and emotional problems, and his
    family dysfunction.       Counsel retained Dr. Flynn, a
    psychotherapist and forensic consultant, who personally
    evaluated Spreitz, performed psychological assessments,
    and interviewed people who were familiar with him. Dr.
    Flynn submitted a report and testified extensively regarding
    Spreitz’s alcohol and drug addictions, his family history of
    substance abuse, his disruptive childhood, and his emotional
    problems. Thus, the majority’s suggestion that Spreitz’s
    case is comparable to those in which we have found evidence
    of longstanding substance abuse to be substantially
    mitigating is misplaced. This is particularly so in light of the
    horrific way in which Ruby Reid died, the impact of which
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      75
    was not lost on all of the Arizona judges who reviewed this
    record.
    D
    Lastly, Spreitz’s own arguments on appeal belie the
    conclusion that his long-term substance abuse unrelated to
    the crime was central to his plea for leniency. Spreitz argues
    that whether he “was intoxicated at the time of the murder
    was critical” to his case, and that “the issue of [his]
    intoxication [at the time of the crime] was critically
    important.” He contends that he “was highly intoxicated at
    the time of the murder” and that “this was the primary cause
    of him committing the murder.” And, he urges that there
    “was ample evidence that [he] was highly intoxicated at the
    time of the murder and that his intoxication contributed
    directly to his actions.” “This was highly relevant
    mitigation,” he says: “[h]ad the judge heard the evidence
    described herein, it is highly probable that he would not have
    sentenced [Spreitz] to death.” But the judge did hear all of
    that evidence. He just didn’t buy the argument based on the
    testimony of officers who interacted with Spreitz before and
    after he killed Ms. Reid. That credibility determination is
    not assailable on appeal.
    Spreitz’s defense theories have shifted on collateral
    appeal. Contrary to his position in supplemental briefing
    ordered by this Court post-McKinney, Spreitz does not make
    any similar arguments about his long-term substance abuse
    as a non-statutory mitigating factor. Instead, he claims that
    evidence of his childhood head injuries that his counsel
    failed to present were vital to his mitigation evidence.
    Spreitz argues that the “importance of counsels’ failure to
    investigate [his] history of head injuries cannot be
    overstated;” that the “connection between childhood head
    injuries and impulsive murder” was “well established” at the
    76                   SPREITZ V. RYAN
    time of sentencing; that “there was a correlation between
    [his] head injuries as a child and his impulsive behavior in
    the instant case;” and that “[expert] testimony could have
    enlightened the court as to the connection between childhood
    head injuries and impulsive behavior in murderers in
    general, and could have developed the link between
    [Spreitz]’s own head injuries and his impulsive behavior
    during this murder in particular.” He contends that:
    The murder in this case was a classic
    impulsive act. It was not thought out or
    premeditated beforehand. Appellant beat the
    victim with a rock; he did not even bring a
    weapon. The victim refused to have sex with
    him, fought him, and he became enraged and
    impulsively killed her. That is the classic
    behavior of a murderer who suffered
    childhood head injuries.
    (Emphasis added.) Spreitz’s shifting defense theories
    undermine his latest argument that long-term substance
    abuse was central to his plea for leniency all along.
    We will never know how Ruby Reid, forced into the
    trunk of Spreitz’s car and pondering her fate as he drove her
    into the desert, would have answered any of Spreitz’s
    contentions. But the forensic evidence of the way in which
    she died stands in silent, but compelling refutation of that
    defense. Simply put, Spreitz cannot show on this record that
    his long-term substance abuse, as a non-statutory mitigating
    factor and without any connection to the crime, was either
    “central to his plea for leniency,” McKinney, 813 F.3d at
    823, or at “the very core of [his] plea for life,” Coleman,
    
    210 F.3d at 1051
    . Therefore, he cannot demonstrate that the
    Arizona courts’ alleged failure to consider that evidence
    SPREITZ V. RYAN                      77
    substantially influenced or swayed his ultimate sentence.
    Nor can he show that, had the Arizona courts further
    considered its marginal mitigating weight, the evidence
    would have substantially affected the outcome of his
    sentence. See Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 623
    . Because Spreitz
    cannot show that the error he alleges was not harmless, the
    district court’s denial of habeas relief on Spreitz’s Eddings
    claim should be affirmed.
    From the majority’s conclusion otherwise, I respectfully
    dissent.