San Luis & Delta-Mendota Water v. Pacific Coast Federation Etc. ( 2014 )


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  •                 FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    SAN LUIS & DELTA-MENDOTA               No. 12-15144
    WATER AUTHORITY; WESTLANDS
    WATER DISTRICT; STOCKTON EAST             D.C. No.
    WATER DISTRICT; METROPOLITAN           1:09-cv-01053-
    WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN                LJO-DLB
    CALIFORNIA; OAKDALE IRRIGATION
    DISTRICT; SOUTH SAN JOAQUIN
    IRRIGATION DISTRICT; KERN
    COUNTY WATER AGENCY;
    COALITION FOR A SUSTAINABLE
    DELTA; STATE WATER
    CONTRACTORS,
    Plaintiffs-Appellees,
    CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF
    WATER RESOURCES,
    Intervenor-Plaintiff–Appellee,
    v.
    GARY LOCKE; UNITED STATES
    DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE;
    NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
    ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION;
    NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES
    SERVICE; JAMES W. BALSIGER;
    RODNEY R. MCINNIS; U.S.
    DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR;
    UNITED STATES BUREAU OF
    2                        SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    RECLAMATION; MICHAEL L.
    CONNOR; DONALD R. GLASER; JANE
    LUBCHENCO; SALLY JEWELL,*
    Defendants,
    and
    THE BAY INSTITUTE; CALIFORNIA
    TROUT; FRIENDS OF THE RIVER;
    NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE
    COUNCIL; NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
    COUNCIL OF THE FEDERATION OF
    FLY FISHERS; SAN FRANCISCO
    BAYKEEPER; SACRAMENTO RIVER
    PRESERVATION TRUST; WINNEMEM
    WINTU TRIBE; PACIFIC COAST
    FEDERATION OF FISHERMEN’S
    ASSOCIATIONS, INC., Institute for
    Fisheries Research,
    Intervenor-Defendants–Appellants.
    SAN LUIS & DELTA-MENDOTA                             No. 12-15289
    WATER AUTHORITY; WESTLANDS
    WATER DISTRICT,                                        D.C. No.
    Plaintiffs-Appellants,                1:09-cv-01053-
    LJO-DLB
    and
    *
    Sally Jewell is substituted for her predecessor, Kenneth Lee Salazar,
    as Secretary of the Interior. Fed. R. App. P. 43(c)(2).
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE    3
    STOCKTON EAST WATER DISTRICT;
    METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF
    SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA; OAKDALE
    IRRIGATION DISTRICT; SOUTH SAN
    JOAQUIN IRRIGATION DISTRICT;
    KERN COUNTY WATER AGENCY;
    COALITION FOR A SUSTAINABLE
    DELTA; STATE WATER
    CONTRACTORS,
    Plaintiffs,
    CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF
    WATER RESOURCES,
    Intervenor-Plaintiff,
    v.
    GARY LOCKE; UNITED STATES
    DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE;
    NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
    ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION;
    NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES
    SERVICE; JAMES W. BALSIGER;
    RODNEY R. MCINNIS; U.S.
    DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR;
    UNITED STATES BUREAU OF
    RECLAMATION; MICHAEL L.
    CONNOR; DONALD R. GLASER; JANE
    LUBCHENCO; SALLY JEWELL,
    Defendants-Appellees,
    THE BAY INSTITUTE; CALIFORNIA
    TROUT; FRIENDS OF THE RIVER;
    4                SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE
    COUNCIL; NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
    COUNCIL OF THE FEDERATION OF
    FLY FISHERS; SAN FRANCISCO
    BAYKEEPER; SACRAMENTO RIVER
    PRESERVATION TRUST; WINNEMEM
    WINTU TRIBE; PACIFIC COAST
    FEDERATION OF FISHERMEN’S
    ASSOCIATIONS, INC., Institute for
    Fisheries Research,
    Intervenor-Defendants–Appellees.
    SAN LUIS & DELTA-MENDOTA              No. 12-15290
    WATER AUTHORITY; WESTLANDS
    WATER DISTRICT; STOCKTON EAST            D.C. No.
    WATER DISTRICT; METROPOLITAN          1:09-cv-01053-
    WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN               LJO-DLB
    CALIFORNIA; OAKDALE IRRIGATION
    DISTRICT; SOUTH SAN JOAQUIN
    IRRIGATION DISTRICT; KERN
    COUNTY WATER AGENCY;
    COALITION FOR A SUSTAINABLE
    DELTA,
    Plaintiffs,
    CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF
    WATER RESOURCES,
    Intervenor-Plaintiff,
    and
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE    5
    STATE WATER CONTRACTORS,
    Plaintiff-Appellant,
    v.
    GARY LOCKE; UNITED STATES
    DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE;
    NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
    ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION;
    NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES
    SERVICE; JAMES W. BALSIGER;
    RODNEY R. MCINNIS; U.S.
    DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR;
    UNITED STATES BUREAU OF
    RECLAMATION; MICHAEL L.
    CONNOR; DONALD R. GLASER; JANE
    LUBCHENCO; SALLY JEWELL,
    Defendants-Appellees,
    THE BAY INSTITUTE; CALIFORNIA
    TROUT; FRIENDS OF THE RIVER;
    NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE
    COUNCIL; NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
    COUNCIL OF THE FEDERATION OF
    FLY FISHERS; SAN FRANCISCO
    BAYKEEPER; SACRAMENTO RIVER
    PRESERVATION TRUST; WINNEMEM
    WINTU TRIBE; PACIFIC COAST
    FEDERATION OF FISHERMEN’S
    ASSOCIATIONS, INC., Institute for
    Fisheries Research,
    Intervenor-Defendants–Appellees.
    6                 SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    SAN LUIS & DELTA-MENDOTA               No. 12-15291
    WATER AUTHORITY; WESTLANDS
    WATER DISTRICT; STOCKTON EAST             D.C. No.
    WATER DISTRICT; METROPOLITAN           1:09-cv-01053-
    WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN                LJO-DLB
    CALIFORNIA; OAKDALE IRRIGATION
    DISTRICT; SOUTH SAN JOAQUIN
    IRRIGATION DISTRICT; STATE
    WATER CONTRACTORS,
    Plaintiffs,
    CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF
    WATER RESOURCES,
    Intervenor-Plaintiff,
    and
    KERN COUNTY WATER AGENCY;
    COALITION FOR A SUSTAINABLE
    DELTA,
    Plaintiffs-Appellants,
    v.
    GARY LOCKE; UNITED STATES
    DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE;
    NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
    ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION;
    NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES
    SERVICE; JAMES W. BALSIGER;
    RODNEY R. MCINNIS; U.S.
    DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR;
    UNITED STATES BUREAU OF
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                     7
    RECLAMATION; MICHAEL L.
    CONNOR; DONALD R. GLASER; JANE
    LUBCHENCO; SALLY JEWELL,
    Defendants-Appellees,
    THE BAY INSTITUTE; CALIFORNIA
    TROUT; FRIENDS OF THE RIVER;
    NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE
    COUNCIL; NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
    COUNCIL OF THE FEDERATION OF
    FLY FISHERS; SAN FRANCISCO
    BAYKEEPER; SACRAMENTO RIVER
    PRESERVATION TRUST; WINNEMEM
    WINTU TRIBE; PACIFIC COAST
    FEDERATION OF FISHERMEN’S
    ASSOCIATIONS, INC., Institute for
    Fisheries Research,
    Intervenor-Defendants–Appellees.
    SAN LUIS & DELTA-MENDOTA              No. 12-15293
    WATER AUTHORITY; WESTLANDS
    WATER DISTRICT; STOCKTON EAST            D.C. No.
    WATER DISTRICT; OAKDALE               1:09-cv-01053-
    IRRIGATION DISTRICT; SOUTH SAN           LJO-DLB
    JOAQUIN IRRIGATION DISTRICT;
    STATE WATER CONTRACTORS; KERN
    COUNTY WATER AGENCY;
    COALITION FOR A SUSTAINABLE
    DELTA,
    Plaintiffs,
    8                SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF
    WATER RESOURCES,
    Intervenor-Plaintiff,
    and
    METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF
    SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
    Plaintiff-Appellant,
    v.
    GARY LOCKE; UNITED STATES
    DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE;
    NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
    ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION;
    NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES
    SERVICE; JAMES W. BALSIGER;
    RODNEY R. MCINNIS; U.S.
    DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR;
    UNITED STATES BUREAU OF
    RECLAMATION; MICHAEL L.
    CONNOR; DONALD R. GLASER; JANE
    LUBCHENCO; SALLY JEWELL,
    Defendants-Appellees,
    THE BAY INSTITUTE; CALIFORNIA
    TROUT; FRIENDS OF THE RIVER;
    NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE
    COUNCIL; NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
    COUNCIL OF THE FEDERATION OF
    FLY FISHERS; SAN FRANCISCO
    BAYKEEPER; SACRAMENTO RIVER
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                     9
    PRESERVATION TRUST; WINNEMEM
    WINTU TRIBE; PACIFIC COAST
    FEDERATION OF FISHERMEN’S
    ASSOCIATIONS, INC., Institute for
    Fisheries Research,
    Intervenor-Defendants–Appellees.
    SAN LUIS & DELTA-MENDOTA               No. 12-15296
    WATER AUTHORITY; WESTLANDS
    WATER DISTRICT; STOCKTON EAST             D.C. No.
    WATER DISTRICT; METROPOLITAN           1:09-cv-01053-
    WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN                LJO-DLB
    CALIFORNIA; OAKDALE IRRIGATION
    DISTRICT; SOUTH SAN JOAQUIN
    IRRIGATION DISTRICT; KERN                OPINION
    COUNTY WATER AGENCY;
    COALITION FOR A SUSTAINABLE
    DELTA; STATE WATER
    CONTRACTORS,
    Plaintiffs-Appellees,
    CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF
    WATER RESOURCES,
    Intervenor-Plaintiff–Appellee,
    v.
    GARY LOCKE; UNITED STATES
    DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE;
    NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
    ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION;
    NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES
    10                SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    SERVICE; JAMES W. BALSIGER;
    RODNEY R. MCINNIS; U.S.
    DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR;
    UNITED STATES BUREAU OF
    RECLAMATION; MICHAEL L.
    CONNOR; DONALD R. GLASER; JANE
    LUBCHENCO; SALLY JEWELL,
    Defendants-Appellants,
    and
    THE BAY INSTITUTE; CALIFORNIA
    TROUT; FRIENDS OF THE RIVER;
    NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE
    COUNCIL; NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
    COUNCIL OF THE FEDERATION OF
    FLY FISHERS; SAN FRANCISCO
    BAYKEEPER; SACRAMENTO RIVER
    PRESERVATION TRUST; WINNEMEM
    WINTU TRIBE; PACIFIC COAST
    FEDERATION OF FISHERMEN’S
    ASSOCIATIONS, INC., Institute for
    Fisheries Research,
    Intervenor-Defendants.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Eastern District of California
    Oliver W. Wanger, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted
    September 15, 2014—San Francisco, California
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                            11
    Filed December 22, 2014
    Before: Richard C. Tallman and Johnnie B. Rawlinson,
    Circuit Judges, and Thomas O. Rice, District Judge.**
    Opinion by Judge Tallman
    SUMMARY***
    Endangered Species Act
    The panel affirmed in part and reversed in part the district
    court’s summary judgment and remanded for entry of
    summary judgment in favor of defendants, federal agencies
    and intervenor-environmental groups, in an action pertaining
    to a formal Biological Opinion developed by the Commerce
    Department’s National Marine Fisheries Service pursuant to
    the Endangered Species Act regarding the impact of
    continuing water extraction in the California Central Valley
    on certain threatened and endangered Salmonid species.
    The Marine Fisheries Service in its 2009 Biological
    Opinion determined that the Department of Interior Bureau of
    Reclamation’s proposed water project in the Central Valley
    would jeopardize some of the Delta’s endangered Salmonids.
    To remedy this problem, the Marine Fisheries Service
    **
    The Honorable Thomas O. Rice, United States District Judge for the
    Eastern District of Washington, sitting by designation.
    ***
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It has
    been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    12                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    required the Bureau to change the way it pumps water out of
    the Central Valley’s rivers. A number of groups that depend
    on the Central Valley’s water sued to halt this change. On
    summary judgment, the district court found, in part, that the
    Marine Fisheries Service violated the Administrative
    Procedure Act’s arbitrary or capricious standard when
    developing much of the Biological Opinion.
    On an initial evidentiary question, the panel held that the
    district court went beyond the exceptions, set forth in Lands
    Council v. Powell, 
    395 F.3d 1019
    (9th Cir. 2004), when it
    admitted extra-record declarations and substituted the
    analysis in those declarations for that provided by the Marine
    Fisheries Service.
    The panel held that the district court did not give the
    Service the substantial deference it was due under the
    Administrative Procedure Act. The panel found that the
    components of the Biological Opinion invalidated by the
    district court were reasonable and supported by the record
    and therefore the panel upheld the Biological Opinion in its
    entirety.
    Specifically, the panel found that: (1) the Service acted
    within its substantial discretion when it used raw salvage data
    instead of data scaled to fish population to set flows in the
    Old and Middle Rivers; (2) the Service’s jeopardy opinion
    components were not arbitrary and capricious as they
    pertained to the winter-run Chinook, the Southern Resident
    orca, the steelhead critical habitat, and the impact of indirect
    mortality factors on the listed species; and (3) the Biological
    Opinion’s challenged reasonable and prudent alternative
    actions were not arbitrary and capricious.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                    13
    Affirming, on cross-appeal, several components of the
    district court’s opinion, the panel held that the Marine
    Fisheries Service did not need to distinguish between
    discretionary and non-discretionary actions; that the
    Biological Opinion’s indirect mortality factors were direct
    effects under the Endangered Species Act; and that Bureau of
    Reclamation was not independently liable under the
    Endangered Species Act.
    COUNSEL
    Rebecca Rose Akroyd, Daniel J. O’Hanlon, Hanspeter
    Walter, Kronick, Moskovitz, Tiedemann, & Girard, PC,
    Sacramento, California, for Plaintiffs-Appellees/Cross-
    Appellants San Luis & Delta-Mendota Water Authority and
    Westlands Water District.
    David A. Diepenbrock, Eileen Diepenbrock, Jonathan Marz,
    and Jon D. Rubin, Diepenbrock Elkin LLP, Sacramento,
    California, for Plaintiffs-Appellees San Luis & Delta-
    Mendota Water Authority.
    Robert D. Thornton and Paul S. Weiland, Nossaman LLP,
    Irvine, California, for Plaintiff-Appellee/Cross-Appellant
    Kern County Water Agency and Plaintiff-Appellee Coalition
    for a Sustainable Delta.
    Amelia T. Minaberrigarai, General Counsel, Bakersfield,
    California, for Plaintiff-Appellee/Cross-Appellant Kern
    County Water Agency.
    Martha F. Bauer, Mark J. Mathews, Brownstein Hyatt Farber
    Schreck, LLP, Denver, Colorado; Steve Sims, Brownstein
    14                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP, Albuquerque, New Mexico;
    David Longly Bernhardt (argued), Brownstein Hyatt Farber
    Schreck, LLP, Washington, D.C.; Harold Craig Manson,
    General Counsel, Fresno, California, for Plaintiff-
    Appellee/Cross-Appellant Westlands Water District.
    Tim O’Laughlin and William C. Paris, III, O’Laughlin &
    Paris LLP, for Plaintiffs-Appellees Oakdale Irrigation District
    and South San Joaquin Irrigation District.
    Steven M. Anderson, Melissa R. Cushman, Steven G. Martin,
    and Gregory K. Wilkinson, Best Best & Krieger, LLP,
    Riverside, California; Paeter E. Garcia, Best Best & Krieger
    LLP, Los Angeles, California, for Plaintiffs-Appellees State
    Water Contractors.
    Alexis K. Galbraith, Karna Elizabeth Harrigfeld, Jennifer
    Lynn Spaletta, and Jeanne M. Zolezzi, Herum Crabtree,
    Stockton, California, for Plaintiff-Appellee Stockton East
    Water District.
    Christopher J. Carr and William M. Sloan (argued), Morrison
    & Foerster LLP, San Francisco, California; Linus
    Masouredis, Chief Deputy General Counsel, Sacramento,
    California, for Plaintiff-Appellee Metropolitan Water District
    of Southern California.
    Michael M. Edson, Allison Goldsmith, Daniel S. Harris,
    Clifford T. Lee (argued), Deputy Attorneys General—Office
    of the California Attorney General, San Francisco, California,
    for Intervenor-Plaintiff–Appellee California Department of
    Water Resources.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                    15
    Ellen J. Durkee (argued) and Bridget McNeil, United States
    Department of Justice, Washington, D.C., for Defendants-
    Appellants/Cross-Appellees United States Department of
    Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
    Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, United
    States Department of the Interior, and United States Bureau
    of Reclamation.
    Trent W. Orr and George Matthew Torgun, Earthjustice, San
    Francisco, California, for Intervenor-Defendants–Appellants/
    Cross-Appellees Pacific Coast Federation of Fisherman’s
    Associations, Institute for Fisheries Research, The Bay
    Institute, California Trout, Friends of the River, Northern
    California Counsel of the Federation of Fly Fishers, San
    Francisco Baykeeper, Sacramento River Preservation Trust,
    Winnemem Wintu Tribe.
    Katherine S. Poole (argued) and Douglas A. Obegi, San
    Francisco, California, for Intervenor-Defendant/Appellant
    Natural Resources Defense Counsel.
    16                       SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. FACTS AND PROCEEDINGS BELOW. . . . . . . . . . 23
    A. Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
    1. Factual Background—The Sacramento-
    San Joaquin Delta. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
    a. The Central Valley and the River
    Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
    b. The State Water Project and the
    Central Valley Project. . . . . . . 25
    c. Threatened and Endangered
    Species in the Delta. . . . . . . . . 28
    2. Legal Background—The Endangered
    Species Act.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
    B. Proceedings Leading to the Current Controversy
    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
    1. The 2009 Salmonid Biological Opinion
    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
    a. The Consultation Request. . . . 32
    b. The Jeopardy Opinion. . . . . . . 33
    c. The Reasonable and Prudent
    Alternatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                                  17
    2. The Present Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
    II. STANDARDS OF REVIEW. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
    III.    THE RECORD ON REVIEW. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
    IV.     THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
    A. The APA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
    B. The ESA.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
    V. THE MERITS OF THE BIOLOGICAL OPINION. . . 47
    A. We Defer To the Agency’s Choice To Use Raw
    Salvage Figures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
    B. The Challenged Jeopardy Opinion Components
    Are Not Arbitrary or Capricious. . . . . . . . . . . 52
    1. Winter-Run Chinook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
    2. Southern Resident Orca. . . . . . . . . . . . 53
    3. Steelhead Critical Habitat. . . . . . . . . . 55
    4. Indirect Mortality Factors. . . . . . . . . . 57
    C. The Challenged RPA Actions Are Not Arbitrary
    or Capricious. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
    1. The Legal Requirements for an RPA
    Action.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
    18                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    a. The ESA Does Not Require
    NMFS To Explain How Each
    RPA Action Is Essential To Avoid
    Jeopardy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
    b. The ESA Does Not Require
    NMFS To Articulate Compliance
    with the Non-Jeopardy Factors
    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
    2. Challenged RPA Actions. . . . . . . . . . . 64
    a. Action IV.2.1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
    b. Action IV.2.3 and Action IV.3
    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
    c. Action IV.4.2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
    d. Action III.1.2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
    e. Action III.1.3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
    f. Action III.2.2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
    VI.   CROSS-APPEAL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
    A. NMFS Need Not Distinguish Discretionary and
    Non-Discretionary Actions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
    B. The Biological Opinion’s Indirect Mortality
    Factors Are Direct Effects Under the ESA. . . 75
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                                  19
    C. Reclamation Is Not Independently Liable Under
    the ESA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
    VII.    CONCLUSIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
    GLOSSARY OF TERMS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
    20                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    OPINION
    TALLMAN, Circuit Judge:
    And then the dry years would come, and
    sometimes there would be only seven or eight
    inches of rain. The land dried up and the
    grasses headed out miserably a few inches
    high and great bare scabby places appeared in
    the valley. The live oaks got a crusty look
    and the sage-brush was gray. The land
    cracked and the sprigs dried up and the cattle
    listlessly nibbled dry twigs. Then the farmers
    and the ranchers would be filled with disgust
    for the Salinas Valley. The cows would grow
    thin and sometimes starve to death. People
    would have to haul water in barrels to their
    farms just for drinking.
    John Steinbeck, East of Eden 5 (Penguin Books 2002) (1952).
    Although John Steinbeck wrote about California’s Salinas
    Valley, the same can be said for California’s Central Valley.
    Like the Salinas Valley, the Central Valley is rich and fertile.
    It is home to some of California’s most productive
    agriculture, and food grown in the Valley sits on the tables in
    most American homes. But the Central Valley is also
    naturally dry. The Valley floor receives an average of five to
    sixteen inches of rainfall per year; the United States
    Geological Service considers it to be arid or semi-arid. In its
    natural state, the Valley could not sustain the level of
    agriculture that the country demands from it.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                      21
    To remedy this problem, the federal and state
    governments have invested enormous sums of money
    developing infrastructure to pump water out of the rivers that
    crisscross the Valley’s floor, store it, and deliver it to
    agricultural and domestic consumers in California. This
    water is essential to the continuing vitality of agriculture in
    the Central Valley, and some 25 million Californians depend
    on it for daily living. But that water is also an important
    habitat for thousands of river and anadromous fish, many of
    which are endangered.
    And therein lies the conflict: If the governments did not
    extract water from the Central Valley’s rivers, the Valley
    could not support the farms that feed, the dams that power,
    and the canals that hydrate millions of Americans. But by
    extracting the water, people dramatically alter the rivers’
    natural state and threaten the viability of the species that
    depend on them. People need water, but so do fish.
    This case is about the competing demands for these
    limited water resources. In 2006 the Department of Interior’s
    Bureau of Reclamation (“Reclamation”), the federal agency
    that oversees water resources in the West, asked the
    Commerce Department’s National Marine Fisheries Service
    (“NMFS”) to evaluate under the Endangered Species Act
    (“ESA”) the impact of continuing water extraction in the
    Central Valley on certain threatened and endangered
    Salmonid species that live there. In response, NMFS
    developed a Biological Opinion (“BiOp”) in which it
    determined that Reclamation’s proposed project would
    jeopardize some of the Delta’s endangered Salmonids. See
    generally 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 574–75. To remedy this
    problem, NMFS required Reclamation to change the way it
    pumps water out of the Valley’s rivers. See 
    id. at ch.
    11. A
    22                        SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    number of groups that depend on the Central Valley’s water
    sued to halt this change. On summary judgment, the district
    court found that NMFS had violated the Administrative
    Procedure Act’s (“APA”) arbitrary or capricious standard
    when developing much of the BiOp. See generally In re
    Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d 802
    , 955–59
    (E.D. Cal. 2011); 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(a) (2012). Defendants—
    joined by environmental groups—appealed, and once again
    we enter the fray.1
    We hold that the district court did not give NMFS the
    substantial deference it is due under the APA. On
    independent record review, we find that the components of
    the BiOp invalidated by the district court are reasonable and
    supported by the record. As a result, we uphold the BiOp in
    its entirety. We, therefore, REVERSE and REMAND for
    entry of summary judgment in favor of Defendants.
    1
    This is not the first time we have addressed this conflict, nor is it likely
    to be the last. We recently addressed the conflict between Delta irrigation
    and a small threatened fish known as the Delta Smelt. See San Luis &
    Delta Mendota Water Auth. v. Jewell (Delta Smelt), 
    747 F.3d 581
    (9th Cir.
    2014). In Delta Smelt we reversed the district court and upheld a 2008
    BiOp in which the Fish and Wildlife Service (“FWS”) concludes that
    continued water extraction from the Central Valley’s rivers would
    jeopardize the Delta Smelt and offers reasonable and prudent alternatives
    that Reclamation should take to ameliorate this impact. See 
    id. at 593–92.
    Our opinion in Delta Smelt informs much of our analysis here.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                     23
    I. FACTS AND PROCEEDINGS BELOW
    A. Background
    1. Factual Background—The            Sacramento-San
    Joaquin Delta
    a. The Central Valley and the River Systems
    The Central Valley is a flat-bottom basin covering 22,500
    square miles in inland California. The walls of the basin are
    created by several mountain ranges: the Sierra Nevada and
    Cascade Mountains to the east, the Klamath Mountains to the
    north, the Coast Range to the west, and the Tehachapi
    Mountains to the south. See infra, Fig. A. The Valley is long
    and narrow. It stretches from Bakersfield in the south to
    Redding in the north (about 450 miles) and is between 40 and
    60 miles wide from east to west.
    The Central Valley contains several major river systems.
    Those systems are comprised of the San Joaquin River
    (which flows west from the Cathedral Range of the Sierra
    Nevada Mountains, turns north around Fresno, and enters the
    San Francisco Bay north of Berkeley), the Sacramento River
    (which flows south from the Salmon and Trinity Mountains
    around Redding and passes through Sacramento before
    joining the San Joaquin River), and their tributaries. The
    Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers converge around
    Antioch, about thirty miles northeast of Oakland, where they
    form the San Joaquin River Delta. The water from the Delta
    flows past Chipps Island, into the Suisun Bay, through Bulls
    Head Channel, and into the San Francisco Bay. The water
    passes the city of San Francisco and flows under the Golden
    Gate Bridge where it finally enters the Pacific Ocean. See
    24                     SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    infra, Fig. A. The brackish body of water through which the
    rivers flow on their way to the Pacific Ocean is called the
    “Bay-Delta.” The river delta is called simply “the Delta.”
    Fig. A. Delta Map.2
    2
    California Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey,
    http://ca.water.usgs.gov/gama/Provs/CenVly.htm (last visited Oct. 21,
    2014, 9:09 a.m.).
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                       25
    b. The State Water Project and the Central
    Valley Project
    Since the early part of the twentieth century, land owners,
    local irrigation districts, and the federal and California state
    governments have pumped fresh water out of the San Joaquin
    and Sacramento Rivers (and their tributaries) to irrigate the
    agricultural lands of the Central Valley and to provide
    drinking water to the people of California. See Cent. Delta
    Water Agency v. United States, 
    306 F.3d 938
    , 943 (9th Cir.
    2002). California governs this pumping through the State
    Water Project (“SWP”) and the federal government does so
    through the Central Valley Project (“CVP”) (collectively,
    “the Projects”).
    The SWP is the largest state-built water project in the
    United States. Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 594
    . It consists of
    “21 dams and reservoirs, . . . five power plants, 16 pumping
    plants, and 662 miles of aqueduct.” 
    Id. (internal citations
    omitted). The California Department of Water Resources
    (“DWR”)—Plaintiff-in-Intervention here—oversees
    operations of the SWP. 
    Id. The CVP
    is “the largest federal water management project
    in the United States.” Cent. Delta Water 
    Agency, 306 F.3d at 943
    . Congress initially authorized it in the Rivers and
    Harbors Act of 1935. 
    Id. It comprises
    a series of dams, “21
    reservoirs, 11 hydropower plants, and 500 miles of canals and
    aqueducts.” Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 594
    . Reclamation
    oversees operations of the CVP. The CVP is partially
    governed by the Central Valley Project Improvement Act
    (“CVPIA”), 
    id. at 594,
    which Congress passed in 1992 to
    “achieve a reasonable balance among competing demands for
    use of Central Valley Project water, including the
    26                     SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    requirements of fish and wildlife, agricultural, municipal and
    industrial and power contractors.” Central Valley Project
    Improvement Act, Pub L. No. 102–575, 106 Stat. 4706
    (1992).
    Together, the Projects provide water to more than 25
    million agricultural and domestic consumers in central and
    southern California. They do so, in part, by pumping fresh
    water out of the Delta using the Harvey O. Banks Pumping
    Plant (“Banks pumping plant”) and the C.W. “Bill” Jones
    Pumping Plant (“Jones pumping plant”), both of which are
    located near Tracy, California.3 The Banks pumping plant is
    capable of pumping water at the rate of 10,300 cubic feet per
    second (“cfs”), but it generally operates closer to 6,680 cfs.
    See OCAP BA at 2-2. The Jones pumping plant has a
    maximum pumping capability of 4,600 cfs. See 
    id. The plants
    operate by lifting water from the Delta using motor-
    generated pumps.4 They pump the water into pipes that
    deliver it into the California Aqueduct or the Delta-Mendota
    Canal, respectively. See Jones & Banks Pumping Facilities.
    From there, the Projects deliver the water to agricultural users
    in the Central Valley and domestic users in central and
    southern California. See id.; see also Fig. B.
    3
    See Biological Assessment on the Continued Long-term Operations of
    the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project, U.S. Bureau of
    Reclamation, http://www.usbr.gov/mp/cvo/ocapBA_051608.html 2-1 (last
    visited Oct. 20, 2014) [hereinafter “OCAP BA”]; see also Fig. A.
    4
    Central Valley Project’s C.W. “Bill” Jones Pumping Plant and Tracy
    Fish Collection Facility, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (July 2012),
    http://www.usbr.gov/mp/PA/docs/fact_sheets/Jones_Pumping_Plant.pdf
    [hereinafter “Jones and Banks Pumping Facilities”].
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                             27
    The Projects also control the volume of water flowing
    through the Central Valley’s rivers by prescribing releases
    from upstream reservoirs, which operate as water storage
    facilities. Releases from CVP/SWP reservoirs cool water
    temperatures, reduce the salinity of the Delta, provide flood
    control, improve volume for fish habitat and migration, and
    supply additional water for agricultural use. See OCAP BA
    at 2-5.
    Fig. B. CVP and SWP Map.5
    5
    Central Valley Project, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation,
    http://www.usbr.gov/projects/Project.jsp?proj_Name=Central+Valley+
    Project (last visited Oct. 21, 2014 8:55 a.m.); James Nickles et al.,
    California’s BAY-DELTA: USGS Science Supports Decision Making,
    http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3032/ (last visited Oct. 21, 2014, 9:00 a.m.).
    28                  SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    c. Threatened and Endangered Species in the Delta
    Although the Projects provide substantial benefits to
    people and to state agriculture, they arguably harm species
    native to the Delta by modifying those species’ natural
    habitats. Five such species are at issue in this case: (1) the
    endangered Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon
    (“winter-run Chinook”); (2) the threatened Central Valley
    spring-run Chinook salmon (“spring-run Chinook”); (3) the
    threatened Central Valley steelhead (“CV steelhead”); (4) the
    threatened Southern Distinct Population Segment of North
    American green sturgeon (“green sturgeon”); and the
    endangered Southern Resident orca whale (“Southern
    Resident orca”). See 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 30.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                        29
    The four Salmonid species (the first four listed) are
    anadromous fish, and Southern Resident orca are marine
    mammals. Anadromous fish live most of their lives in salt
    water.6 Nevertheless, they are born, mature, lay eggs, and
    often die in inland freshwater lakes and rivers. After they
    grow from fry (baby fish) to smolts (juvenile fish) in fresh
    water, anadromous salmon outmigrate through rivers and
    deltas into the oceans and seas where they will spend most of
    their adult lives. When it is time to reproduce, these salmon
    migrate back through the deltas to the rivers and lakes in
    which they were born to lay eggs. During this migration,
    salmon must pass impediments in inland rivers such as locks,
    dams, channels, and pumps.
    The San Francisco Bay-Delta is an essential conduit for
    anadromous fish that return to California’s inland rivers and
    lakes to reproduce. Nevertheless, human interactions with the
    Delta and California’s inland rivers over the past century
    have significantly altered them, threatening their ability to
    serve as salmonid habitats. SWP and CVP operations
    increase pollution, encourage the growth of non-native
    species, and create water shortages in the Delta that harm
    salmon by exposing them to unnatural stressors. See 2009
    Salmonid BiOp at 374–82. Migrating salmon can also be
    caught in, and killed by, the large water pumps that serve the
    Projects. Finally, CVP/SWP operations that limit cold water
    releases from dams upstream of traditional spawning sites
    potentially impact critical spawning habitat by making the
    rivers less conducive to reproduction.
    6
    See, e.g., Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), NOAA
    Fisheries Office of Protected Resources, http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/
    pr/species/fish/chinooksalmon.htm (last updated May 15, 2014).
    30                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    2. Legal Background—The Endangered Species Act
    We must review NMFS’s formal opinion as to how
    Reclamation and DWR should operate the Projects to avoid
    jeopardizing endangered Salmonid species. Before further
    discussing the relationship between the Projects and the
    species, we briefly review the legal framework for that
    opinion.
    The federal government protects listed and threatened
    species, such as the five at issue here, primarily through the
    ESA. See Endangered Species Act, 16 U.S.C. §§ 1531–1544
    (2012). When Congress passed the ESA in 1973, it sought to
    bring about the “better safeguarding, for the benefit of all
    citizens, [of] the Nation’s heritage in fish, wildlife, and
    plants.” 
    Id. § 1531(a)(5).
    Section 7 of the ESA “addresses the obligations of federal
    agencies with respect to conservation and protection of
    species listed as either endangered or threatened under the
    ESA.”       Lawrence R. Liebesman & Rafe Petersen,
    Endangered Species Deskbook 39 (2d ed. 2010). ESA section
    7 prohibits a federal agency from taking any action that is
    “likely to jeopardize the continued existence” of any listed or
    threatened species or “result in the destruction or adverse
    modification” of those species’ critical habitat. 16 U.S.C.
    § 1536(a)(2).
    Section 7 requires an agency proposing a project that
    might harm listed or threatened species to consult with either
    NMFS or the Interior Department’s Fish and Wildlife Service
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                          31
    (“FWS”)7 about the proposed action. 16 U.S.C. § 1536(a)(2).
    As part of this consultation, the action agency prepares an
    initial assessment of the project in which it evaluates the
    project’s impact on any listed or endangered species. This is
    called a Biological Assessment (“BA”). 50 C.F.R. § 402.02
    (2009). The appropriate consultation agency reviews the
    action agency’s BA and uses it to prepare a Biological
    Opinion (“BiOp”) in which it ultimately determines whether
    the proposed agency action is likely to adversely impact
    endangered or listed species, or negatively modify their
    critical habitats. See 16 U.S.C. § 1536(a)(2).8
    If the agency concludes that the proposed action will
    jeopardize species or critical habitats, “the Biological
    Opinion must outline any ‘reasonable and prudent
    alternatives’ that the [agency] . . . believes will avoid that
    consequence.” Bennett v. Spear, 
    520 U.S. 154
    , 158, 117 S.
    Ct. 1154, 1159 (1997) (quoting 16 U.S.C. § 1536(b)(3)(A)).
    Reasonable and prudent alternatives (“RPAs”) are
    alternative actions identified during formal
    consultation that can be implemented in a
    manner consistent with the intended purpose
    of the action, that can be implemented
    consistent with the scope of the Federal
    7
    Whether an agency consults with NMFS or FWS depends on the
    species for which it is seeking consultation. NMFS consults on marine
    and anadromous species. See Liebesman & 
    Petersen, supra, at 40
    .
    8
    The consultation agency’s determination with regard to whether the
    proposed project is likely to jeopardize listed species is called the
    “jeopardy opinion” component of the BiOp. See U.S. Fish & Wildlife
    Serv. & Nat’ l Marine Fisheries Serv., ESA Section 7 Consultation
    Handbook 4-37 (Mar. 1998) [hereinafter “Handbook”].
    32                        SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    agency’s legal authority and jurisdiction, that
    is [sic] economically and technologically
    feasible, and that the Director believes would
    avoid the likelihood of jeopardizing the
    continued existence of listed species or
    resulting in the destruction or adverse
    modification of critical habitat.
    50 C.F.R. § 402.02. The consulting agency may also
    issue—with the BiOp—an incidental take statement (“ITS”)
    that permits the action agency to harm listed species when
    implementing the RPAs without violating the ESA. See 
    id. B. Proceedings
    Leading to the Current Controversy
    1. The 2009 Salmonid Biological Opinion
    a. The Consultation Request
    In 2006, Reclamation asked NMFS to prepare a BiOp
    assessing the impact of continued and future CVP/SWP
    operations on Delta Salmonid species.9 This request was
    motivated by the listing of new endangered species and the
    designation of new critical habitats. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at
    31. In it, Reclamation asked NMFS to evaluate the effect of
    Reclamation and DWR’s proposal to continue to operate the
    Projects “to divert, store, and convey Project water . . . ,”
    OCAP BA at 2-1, on winter-run Chinook, spring-run
    Chinook, CV steelhead, CCC steelhead (a fish not at issue
    9
    Although the SWP is a state project, it is subject to federal consultation
    along with the CVP because of a 1986 agreement between the federal
    government and DWR. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 31.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                      33
    here), green sturgeon, and Southern Resident orca, see 2009
    Salmonid BiOp at 30.
    Reclamation developed a BA that could provide the basis
    for such a consultation in the fall of 2008. 
    Id. at 32.
    Using
    the data Reclamation provided in the BA, supplementing it
    with its own research, NMFS developed a draft Salmonid
    BiOp that it released to Reclamation and DWR for comment
    in the winter of 2008. 
    Id. at 33.
    Reclamation and DWR
    reviewed and commented on the document. NMFS also
    requested and received peer review from the CALFED Bay-
    Delta Program and the Center for Independent Experts. See
    
    id. Based on
    the comments received, NMFS published a final
    560-page BiOp on June 4, 2009. Reclamation provisionally
    accepted the BiOp that same day.
    Plaintiffs contest the legality of the 2009 BiOp here,
    arguing—for various reasons—that parts of it are arbitrary or
    capricious in violation of the APA. Before discussing
    Plaintiffs’ specific challenges and the issues on appeal, we
    briefly review the portions of the BiOp that are relevant.
    b. The Jeopardy Opinion
    In the first part of the BiOp, NMFS concludes that “the
    long-term operations of the CVP and SWP are likely to
    jeopardize the continued existence of the” winter-run
    Chinook, the spring-run Chinook, the CV steelhead, the green
    sturgeon, and the Southern Resident orca. 
    Id. at 575.
    Similarly, “[t]he long-term operations of the CVP and SWP
    are likely to destroy or adversely modify critical habitat for”
    winter-run Chinook, spring-run Chinook, CV steelhead, and
    green sturgeon. 
    Id. 34 SAN
    LUIS V. LOCKE
    c. The Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives
    Because NMFS concludes that ongoing CVP/SWP
    operations would threaten listed species, it issued over
    seventy RPAs that Reclamation is supposed to implement to
    avoid jeopardy. See generally 
    id. at 574–724.
    The proposed
    RPAs fall into five operational categories—(I) Sacramento
    River Division, (II) American River Division, (III) East Side
    Division, (IV) Delta Division, and (V) Fish Passage Program.
    See 
    id. at 19.
    On appeal, the parties challenge provisions of
    the RPAs falling into categories III and IV.
    Actions in category III relate to CVP/SWP operations on
    the Stanislaus River, which provides critical spawning and
    smolting grounds for the CV steelhead. See 
    id. at 619–20.
    Prior to the construction of the New Melones Dam on the
    Stanislaus River, CV steelhead spawned in the cold
    tributaries upstream of where the New Melones Reservoir is
    now located. See 
    id. at 107–08,
    619. Now, “[t]he steelhead
    population on the Stanislaus River is precariously small and
    limited to habitat areas below the [Goodwin and New
    Melones] Dams that historically were unsuitable owing to
    high summer temperatures.” 
    Id. at 619.
    In RPA category III,
    NMFS prescribes certain volumes of releases from the
    Goodwin and New Melones Dams that, according to NMFS,
    will cool the rivers enough to facilitate steelhead spawning.
    See 
    id. at 620.
    The flows will also rejuvenate the gravel that
    is essential to steelhead spawning habitat and provide
    migratory cues to adult and juvenile fish.
    Actions in category IV relate to operations in the Delta.
    See 
    id. at 628–30
    (describing Delta division action). NMFS
    concludes that the proposed actions for the Projects, which
    “include continued diversion of water from the Delta at the
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                            35
    project’s export facilities, with increased export levels,” “will
    increase the level of stressors in the Delta,” further degrading
    it as a habitat. 
    Id. at 629.
    The category IV RPA Actions
    address this jeopardy finding by imposing flow-to-export
    ratios for the Old and Middle Rivers, see 
    id. at 643–44,
    prescribing maximum negative flow rates for the Old and
    Middle Rivers, 
    id. at 648,
    and requiring a certain salvage
    efficiency at major fish salvage stations, 
    id. at 655.
    2. The Present Case
    On June 15, 2009, Plaintiffs San Luis & Delta-Mendota
    Water Authority and Westlands Water District challenged the
    legality of the 2009 BiOp by filing suit against the
    Department of Commerce, the National Oceanic and
    Atmospheric Administration, and NMFS (collectively
    “Federal Defendants”)10 in the Eastern District of California.
    See Compl. at 1, ECF No. 1. The district court consolidated
    that case with several other cases in which state water
    districts challenged the 2009 BiOp.11 DWR intervened as a
    plaintiff. See Joinder by Calif. Dep’t of Water Res., ECF No.
    137. And several environmental and fishing groups
    10
    Reclamation and the United States Department of the Interior were
    later joined. They are included under the umbrella of “Federal
    Defendants.” See In re Consolidated Salmonid 
    Cases, 791 F. Supp. 2d at 813
    .
    11
    The plaintiffs fall into three separate groups. The Export Plaintiffs
    are San Luis & Delta Mendota Water Authority and Westlands Water
    District; State Water Contractors; Kern County Water Agency and
    Coalition for a Sustainable Delta; and Metropolitan Water District of
    Southern California. The Stanislaus River Plaintiffs (or “SR Plaintiffs”)
    are Stockton East Water District, Oakdale Irrigation District, and South
    San Joaquin Irrigation District. The DWR Plaintiff in Intervention is the
    California Department of Water Resources.
    36                       SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    intervened as defendants.12 See In re Consolidated Salmonid
    
    Cases, 791 F. Supp. 2d at 813
    .
    On August 6, 2010, several Plaintiffs moved for summary
    judgment on their claim that the 2009 BiOp violates the ESA
    and the APA. 
    Id. The Stanislaus
    River Plaintiffs and DWR
    filed separate motions for summary judgment. 
    Id. The Federal
    Defendants and Defendant-Intervenors responded
    with cross-motions for summary judgment. 
    Id. “These cross-
    motions, which included over 700 pages of briefing and
    thousands of pages of supporting declarations and exhibits,
    came on for hearing on December 16 and 17, 2010.” 
    Id. On September
    20, 2011, the district court filed a 157-page
    opinion granting in part and denying in part Plaintiffs’ claims,
    and granting in part and denying in part Defendants’ claims.
    
    Id. at 955–59.
    The district court made dozens of conclusions relating to
    almost every component of the BiOp when rendering this
    complex and lengthy opinion. We briefly review the
    conclusions at issue in this appeal.
    The Defendants ask us to overturn the following of the
    district court’s holdings in which it struck down components
    of the BiOp:
    •        NMFS acted unlawfully by relying on raw salvage data to
    set negative flow thresholds for the Old and Middle
    12
    Those Defendant-Intervenors are The Bay Institute; California Trout;
    Friends of the River; Natural Resources Defense Council; Northern
    California Council of the Federation of Fly Fishers; San Francisco
    Baykeeper; Sacramento River Preservation Trust; Winnemem Wintu
    Tribe; and Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Associations, Inc.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                       37
    Rivers. Basic scientific principles require the agency to
    use data scaled to population to determine the impact of
    exports on fish survival. 
    Id. at 827.
    •   NMFS erred by failing to provide sufficient support for
    its classification of the winter-run Chinook as “high risk”
    rather than the less serious classification of “not viable.”
    
    Id. at 864.
    •   NMFS erred by failing to reconcile the 2009 Salmonid
    BiOp’s jeopardy determination relating to the Southern
    Resident orca with an apparently contradictory conclusion
    in a different 2009 BiOp (“2009 Orca BiOp”). 
    Id. at 866.
    •   NMFS failed to adequately explain how continued
    operation of the Projects will adversely modify the CV
    steelhead’s critical habitat by reducing spawnable area
    and degrading gravel quality and quantity. 
    Id. at 936.
    •   Although NMFS sufficiently established that delta
    hydrologic conditions—as altered in part by the
    Projects—are favorable to invasive species, the BiOp
    does not support the conclusion that continued CVP/SWP
    operations promote invasive species, which in turn
    threaten listed species. 
    Id. at 870.
    Nor does the BiOp
    sufficiently explain “how the projects influence
    contaminants or cause food limitations.” 
    Id. • NMFS
    provided no support for its decision to use
    “maximum steelhead habitat” as a benchmark for
    evaluating the effect of East Side Division operations on
    listed species in the Stanislaus River. Because the
    modeling related to the New Melones Dam flows are
    38                    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    based on the “maximum habitat” benchmark, the New
    Melones Dam flow limits violate the APA. 
    Id. at 938.
    •    NMFS’s modeling assumptions relating to the Stanislaus
    River are flawed because NMFS set its goal as
    “doubling” CV steelhead habitat. 
    Id. at 950.
    •    NMFS failed to establish how each RPA Action complies
    with 50 C.F.R. § 402.02’s non-jeopardy factors.
    Specifically, NMFS did not establish how each RPA
    Action complies with the many purposes of the CVPIA,
    
    id. at 918,
    nor did it consider how each Action is feasible,
    
    id. at 919.
    NMFS erred particularly by failing to show
    how Delta Action IV.4.2 is feasible.
    •    NMFS erred by failing to explain how certain RPA
    Actions are “essential” to avoid jeopardy of the listed
    species or adverse modification of their habitats. 
    Id. at 897
    & n.26. Those actions are Delta Division RPAs
    IV.2.1, IV.2.3, and IV.3 and East Side Division RPAs
    III.1.2, III.1.3, and III.2.2.
    Plaintiffs ask us to overturn the following of the district
    court’s holdings that were favorable to the BiOp:
    •    Reclamation did not violate its obligations under section
    7 of the ESA when it accepted the 2009 Salmonid BiOp.
    
    Id. at 955.
    •    NMFS did not need to segregate discretionary and non-
    discretionary agency activities when constituting the
    environmental baseline. 
    Id. at 852.
                         SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                     39
    •   NMFS did not err by classifying indirect mortality factors
    as a direct effect of the continuing Projects. 
    Id. at 870–71.
    The district court entered its final judgment on December
    12, 2011. See Final Judgment, ECF No. 655. The parties
    timely cross-appealed. This court has jurisdiction under
    28 U.S.C. § 1291 (2012).
    II. STANDARDS OF REVIEW
    We review the district court’s summary judgment rulings
    de novo. McFarland v. Kempthorne, 
    545 F.3d 1106
    , 1110
    (9th Cir. 2008) (internal citations omitted). Summary
    judgment is appropriate when the pleadings and record
    demonstrate that “there is no genuine dispute as to any
    material fact and the movant is entitled to judgment as a
    matter of law.” Fed. R. Civ. P. 56(a). This court also reviews
    de novo the district court’s evaluations of an agency’s
    actions. Sierra Club v. Babbit, 
    65 F.3d 1502
    , 1507 (9th Cir.
    1995) (“De novo review of a district court judgment
    concerning a decision of an administrative agency means we
    view the case from the same position as the district court.”).
    We evaluate a district court’s decision to admit extra-record
    evidence for abuse of discretion. Lands Council v. Powell,
    
    395 F.3d 1019
    , 1030 n.11 (9th Cir. 2004).
    This is a record review case, so we will conduct our own
    review of the administrative record and, if necessary, “direct
    that summary judgment be granted to either party . . . .” 
    Id. at 1026.
    40                  SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    III.   THE RECORD ON REVIEW
    Before reviewing the merits of the 2009 Salmonid BiOp,
    we must resolve an initial evidentiary question: Did the
    district court err in its own record review by supplementing
    the administrative record with dozens of extra-record
    declarations? The district court relied on extra-record
    declarations comprising thousands of pages of scientific
    opinion, to evaluate and—in some circumstances—call into
    question the BiOp. See In re Consolidated Salmonid 
    Cases, 791 F. Supp. 2d at 813
    (describing how the parties’ cross
    motions for summary judgment “included . . . thousands of
    pages of supporting declarations and exhibits”). It did so
    under our holding in Lands 
    Council, 395 F.3d at 1030
    , which
    permits district courts to supplement an administrative record
    in a few limited circumstances. Id.; see Tr. of Proceeding
    Mot. to Admit Expert Test. vol. 1, at 12, ECF No. 695
    [hereinafter Expert Tr. vol. 1]; 
    id. at 14–15
    (describing the
    Lands Council exceptions). The question here is whether the
    district court properly applied Lands Council, or whether it
    went beyond Lands Council to improperly question NMFS’s
    scientific determinations. We hold, based in part on our
    opinion in Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 602
    –04, that the district
    court went beyond the Lands Council exceptions when it
    admitted extra-record declarations and substituted the
    analysis in those declarations for that provided by NMFS.
    In general, a court reviewing agency action under the
    APA must limit its review to the administrative record. See
    Camp v. Pitts, 
    411 U.S. 138
    , 142, 
    93 S. Ct. 1231
    , 1244
    (1973). We have applied this rule many times, in many
    different contexts. See, e.g., Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 602
    –04
    (stating the rule and applying it to strike extra-record
    declarations admitted by the district court); Fence Creek
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                      41
    Cattle Co. v. U.S.F.S., 
    602 F.3d 1125
    , 1131 (9th Cir. 2010)
    (“Generally, judicial review of an agency decision is limited
    to the administrative record on which the agency based the
    challenged decision.”); Sw. Ctr. for Biological Diversity v.
    U.S.F.S., 
    100 F.3d 1443
    , 1450 (9th Cir. 1996) (“Judicial
    review of an agency decision typically focuses on the
    administrative record in existence at the time of the decision
    and does not encompass any part of the record that is made
    initially in the reviewing court.”); Asarco, Inc. v. E.P.A.,
    
    616 F.2d 1153
    , 1159 (9th Cir. 1980) (“[A]gency action must
    be examined by scrutinizing the administrative record at the
    time the agency made its decision.”).
    This rule ensures that the reviewing court affords
    sufficient deference to the agency’s action. The APA gives
    an agency substantial discretion “to rely on the reasonable
    opinions of its own qualified experts even if, as an original
    matter, a court might find contrary views more persuasive.”
    Marsh v. Or. Natural Res. Def. Council, 
    490 U.S. 360
    , 378,
    
    109 S. Ct. 1851
    , 1861 (1989). “When a reviewing court
    considers evidence that was not before the agency, it
    inevitably leads the reviewing court to substitute its judgment
    for that of the agency.” 
    Asarco, 616 F.2d at 1160
    . In so
    imposing its judgment, the reviewing court effectively
    conducts a de novo review of the agency’s action rather than
    limiting itself to the deferential procedural review that the
    APA’s arbitrary or capricious standard permits. See River
    Runners for Wilderness v. Martin, 
    593 F.3d 1064
    , 1070 (9th
    Cir. 2010) (per curiam).
    But we have also recognized several exceptions to this
    rule. Under Lands Council, a reviewing court may consider
    extra-record evidence where admission of that evidence (1) is
    necessary to determine “‘whether the agency has considered
    42                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    all relevant factors and has explained its decision,’” (2) is
    necessary to determine whether “‘the agency has relied on
    documents not in the record,’ (3) ‘when supplementing the
    record is necessary to explain technical terms or complex
    subject matter,’ or (4) ‘when plaintiffs make a showing of
    agency bad 
    faith.’” 395 F.3d at 1030
    (quoting Sw. Ctr. for
    Biological Diversity v. 
    U.S.F.S., 100 F.3d at 1450
    ). These
    exceptions are to be narrowly construed, and the party
    seeking to admit extra-record evidence initially bears the
    burden of demonstrating that a relevant exception applies.
    See Fence 
    Creek, 602 F.3d at 1131
    .
    The first Lands Council exception—the “relevant factors”
    exception—is the most difficult to apply, so we pause here to
    further examine it. Although the relevant factors exception
    permits a district court to consider extra-record evidence to
    develop a background against which it can evaluate the
    integrity of the agency’s analysis, the exception does not
    permit district courts to use extra-record evidence to judge the
    wisdom of the agency’s action. 
    Asarco, 616 F.2d at 1160
    .
    This distinction is a fine, but important, one. Reviewing
    courts may admit evidence under this exception only to help
    the court understand whether the agency complied with the
    APA’s requirement that the agency’s decision be neither
    arbitrary nor capricious. See 
    id. at 1159;
    see also Motor
    Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n of U.S., Inc. v. State Farm Mut. Auto Ins.
    Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 
    103 S. Ct. 2856
    (1983) (further describing
    the APA’s standards). But reviewing courts may not look to
    this evidence as a basis for questioning the agency’s scientific
    analyses or conclusions. 
    Asarco, 616 F.2d at 1160
    –61.
    We most recently considered the scope of the Lands
    Council exceptions in Delta Smelt. See Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 602
    –04. There, like here, the district court admitted
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                       43
    “multiple declarations from multiple experts” to augment the
    administrative record. 
    Id. at 603.
    We held that, in doing so,
    the district court violated the APA for two reasons. First, the
    court admitted more than forty expert declarations under
    Lands Council in addition to certifying four expert
    declarations under Federal Rule of Evidence 706. 
    Id. at 599
    n.13 (citing Fed. R. Evid. 706), 603. We questioned whether
    the district court needed the extra-record declarations to
    explain the technical language in the BiOp or provide
    background material because the Rule 706 court-appointed
    experts served those purposes. See 
    id. at 603.
    Thus, we were
    critical of the district court opening the administrative record
    as a forum for the experts to debate the merits of the BiOp.
    
    Id. at 603–04.
    Second, we held in Delta Smelt that the district court
    erred when it used the extra-record declarations as a basis for
    judging the wisdom of the agency’s scientific 
    analysis. 747 F.3d at 604
    . Even if a reviewing court properly admits
    extra-record evidence under Lands Council, it may not use
    the admitted extra-record evidence “to determine the
    correctness or wisdom of the agency’s decision.” 
    Asarco, 616 F.2d at 1160
    . Such use is never permitted.
    Here too, the district court violated Delta Smelt’s holding
    when it used several extra-record declarations to question
    NMFS’s scientific judgments. As in Delta Smelt, the district
    court here “relied . . . on the declarations of the parties’
    experts-as-advocates as the basis for rejecting the 
    BiOp.” 747 F.3d at 604
    . In this way, the district court overstepped
    the bounds of Lands Council by opening the administrative
    record as a forum for the experts to debate the merits of the
    BiOp. The district court employed extra-record declarations
    at the following points for this impermissible purpose: In re
    44                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    Consolidated Salmonid 
    Cases, 791 F. Supp. 2d at 827
    , 852
    (Deriso Decl., ECF No. 440); 
    id. at 829,
    832, 834, 841
    (Burnham Decl., ECF No. 439); 
    id. at 840,
    841 (Hilborn
    Reply Decl., ECF No. 493); 
    id. at 863
    (Cramer Decl., ECF
    No. 448); 
    id. at 880
    (Cummings Decl., ECF No. 445); 
    id. at 884,
    889–90, 893 (Cavallo Decl., ECF No. 446–1); 
    id. at 942–43
    (Dotan Decl., ECF No. 442). By admitting these
    declarations and relying on them to question the wisdom of
    NMFS’s judgments, the district court abused its discretion
    under Lands Council.
    IV.     THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK
    A. The APA
    The ESA does not provide its own standard of judicial
    review, so we evaluate the BiOp under the APA’s arbitrary or
    capricious standard. See 
    Bennett, 520 U.S. at 174
    –77; Delta
    
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 601
    . Section 706(2)(A) of the APA
    requires a reviewing court to uphold agency action unless it
    is “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise
    not in accordance with law.” 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A). Under
    this standard, we will “sustain an agency action if the agency
    has articulated a rational connection between the facts found
    and the conclusions made.” Pac. Coast Fed’n of Fishermen’s
    Ass’ns v. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, 
    426 F.3d 1082
    , 1090
    (9th Cir. 2005).
    The arbitrary or capricious standard is a deferential
    standard of review under which the agency’s action carries a
    presumption of regularity. See Citizens to Preserve Overton
    Park, Inc. v. Volpe, 
    401 U.S. 402
    , 415–16, 
    91 S. Ct. 814
    (1971), abrogated in part on other grounds as recognized in
    Califano v. Sanders, 
    430 U.S. 99
    , 
    97 S. Ct. 980
    (1977); Kern
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                        45
    Cnty. Farm Bureau v. Allen, 
    450 F.3d 1072
    , 1076 (9th Cir.
    2006). Although the court’s inquiry must be “searching and
    careful, . . . the ultimate standard of review is a narrow one.”
    
    Marsh, 490 U.S. at 378
    (internal citations omitted). Thus,
    “[e]ven when an agency explains its decision with ‘less than
    ideal clarity,’ a reviewing court will not upset the decision on
    that account ‘if the agency’s path may be reasonably
    discerned.’” Ala. Dep’t of Envt’l Conservation v. E.P.A.,
    
    540 U.S. 461
    , 497, 
    124 S. Ct. 983
    (2004) (quoting Bowman
    Transp. v. Ark.—Best Freight Sys., Inc., 
    419 U.S. 281
    , 286,
    
    95 S. Ct. 438
    (1974)). It is not the reviewing court’s task to
    “make its own judgment about” the appropriate outcome.
    River Runners for 
    Wilderness, 593 F.3d at 1070
    . “Congress
    has delegated that responsibility to” the agency. 
    Id. “The court’s
    responsibility is narrower: to determine whether the”
    agency complied with the procedural requirements of the
    APA. 
    Id. This traditional
    deference to the agency is at its highest
    where a court is reviewing an agency action that required a
    high level of technical expertise. 
    Marsh, 490 U.S. at 377
    ; see
    also Baltimore Gas & Elec. Co. v. Natural Res. Def. Council,
    Inc., 
    462 U.S. 87
    , 103, 
    103 S. Ct. 2246
    (1983) (“When
    examining this kind of scientific determination . . . a
    reviewing court must generally be at its most deferential.”).
    As part of this deference, we afford the agency discretion to
    choose among scientific models; we “reject an agency’s
    choice of a scientific model only when the model bears no
    rational relationship to the characteristics of the data to which
    it is applied.” Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 621
    (internal citations
    omitted).
    Nevertheless, the deference we owe an agency is not
    unlimited. We may not automatically defer to an agency’s
    46                  SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    conclusions, even when those conclusions are scientific. See
    
    Marsh, 490 U.S. at 378
    . Rather, our review must be
    sufficiently probing to ensure that the agency has not
    relied on factors which Congress has not
    intended it to consider, entirely failed to
    consider an important aspect of the problem,
    offered an explanation for its decision that
    runs counter to the evidence before the
    agency, or is so implausible that it could not
    be ascribed to a difference in view or the
    product of agency expertise.
    State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    . A different approach “would not
    simply render judicial review generally meaningless, but
    would be contrary to the demand that courts ensure that
    agency decisions are founded on a reasoned evaluation of the
    relevant factors.” 
    Marsh, 490 U.S. at 378
    (internal citations
    omitted).
    B. The ESA
    The ESA requires an agency to use “the best scientific
    and commercial data available” when formulating a BiOp.
    16 U.S.C. § 1536(a)(2); 50 C.F.R. § 402.14(g)(8). An
    agency’s failure to do so violates the APA. See 5 U.S.C.
    § 706(2)(A); Pac. Coast Fed’n v. Gutierrez, 
    606 F. Supp. 2d 1195
    , 1244 (E.D. Cal. 2008).
    The purpose of the best available science standard is to
    prevent an agency from basing its action on speculation and
    surmise. 
    Bennett, 520 U.S. at 176
    . Under this standard, an
    agency must not “‘disregard[] available scientific evidence
    that is in some way better than the evidence [it] relies on.’”
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                      47
    Kern 
    Cnty., 450 F.3d at 1080
    (quoting Sw. Ctr. for Biological
    Diversity v. Babbitt, 
    215 F.3d 58
    , 60 (D.C. Cir. 2000)). The
    standard does not, however, require an agency to conduct
    new tests or make decisions on data that does not yet exist.
    See Am. Wildlands v. Kempthorne, 
    530 F.3d 991
    , 998–99
    (D.C. Cir. 2008) (holding that an agency’s use of available
    data and test methods was reasonable even though better test
    methods existed because those test methods had not yet been
    used on the species in question). Moreover, if the only
    available data is “‘weak,’ and thus not dispositive,” an
    agency’s reliance on such data “does not render the agency’s
    determination ‘arbitrary and capricious.’” Greenpeace Action
    v. Franklin, 
    14 F.3d 1324
    , 1336 (9th Cir. 1992) (quoting Stop
    H-3 Ass’n v. Dole, 
    740 F.2d 1442
    , 1460 (9th Cir. 1984)). An
    agency complies with the best available science standard so
    long as it does not ignore available studies, even if it
    disagrees with or discredits them. See Kern 
    Cnty., 450 F.3d at 1081
    (rejecting Kern’s argument that FWS violated the
    best available science standard when it cited but allegedly
    misinterpreted three studies).
    Finally, what constitutes the best scientific and
    commercial data available is itself a scientific determination
    deserving of deference. Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Fla.
    v. United States, 
    566 F.3d 1257
    , 1265 (11th Cir. 2009) (citing
    
    Marsh, 490 U.S. at 377
    –78). For that reason “[a] court
    should be especially wary of overturning such a
    determination on review.” In re Consolidated Salmonid
    
    Cases, 791 F. Supp. 2d at 821
    .
    V. THE MERITS OF THE BIOLOGICAL OPINION
    With these standards in mind, we evaluate each BiOp
    component that is challenged on appeal.
    48                  SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    Plaintiffs originally challenged dozens of specific
    components of the 2009 Salmonid BiOp. At summary
    judgment, the district court upheld as valid many of them, and
    determined that several others were arbitrary or capricious.
    See 
    id. at 955–59.
    Defendants appeal each part of the district
    court opinion in which the court found the BiOp unlawful.
    Plaintiffs cross-appeal several portions of the opinion in
    which the district court upheld the BiOp.
    We discuss each challenge to the BiOp in turn. First, we
    address the district court’s objections to NMFS’s use of raw
    salvage data. Second, we discuss the challenges to NMFS’s
    jeopardy opinions, including the portion of the BiOp dealing
    with indirect mortality factors. Third, we review the
    challenges to NMFS’s RPAs, clarifying what the ESA and its
    implementing regulations require from the agency when it is
    developing and defining RPAs. We then evaluate the
    challenged Actions in light of those requirements. Finally,
    we discuss the three cross-appeal issues.
    As our record review will show, the district court—in
    many instances—did not afford the agency proper deference
    under the APA. Rather than evaluating the agency’s
    decision-making process and deferring to the agency’s
    scientific conclusions when those conclusions are fairly
    traceable to the record, the district court engaged in an in-
    depth substantive review of the science supporting the BiOp
    and substituted its own opinions, and those of the parties’
    experts, for the opinions of NMFS. As a result, the district
    court invalidated much of the BiOp under a quasi de novo
    review. But the APA does not permit such an in-depth
    review, particularly where, like here, the conclusions
    implicate agency expertise. See 
    Marsh, 490 U.S. at 375
    –77.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                           49
    We correct the district court’s errors in our own review;
    and as a result, we uphold the BiOp in its entirety. After
    reviewing the record as a whole, we are satisfied that, when
    developing each component of the BiOp, NMFS relied on the
    factors that Congress intended it to consider, considered all
    important aspects of the problem, and offered explanations
    for its decisions that are in line with the evidence. See State
    
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    . We are also satisfied that, in doing so,
    NMFS used the best scientific data available, even if that
    science was not always perfect. Cf. Greenpeace 
    Action, 14 F.3d at 1336
    .
    A. We Defer To the Agency’s Choice To Use Raw
    Salvage Figures
    The Projects pump fresh water out of the Old and Middle
    Rivers in volumes sufficient to reverse the rivers’ traditional
    flow. Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 606
    . Absent pumping, the
    rivers would flow north into the Delta. Under pumping
    operations, the rivers flow south to the Jones and Banks
    pumping plants. Listed species—particularly juveniles—are
    caught in the negative current and drawn towards the
    pumping facilities. See 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 651. Some
    of these fish are salvaged at the pumps, meaning they are
    diverted from the fatal pumping plants to fish salvage
    facilities and into tanks where they are counted, measured,
    loaded into trucks, driven north, and dumped back into the
    Delta.13 But even if salvaged, fish that are drawn towards the
    pumps in the Rivers’ negative flow have a lower likelihood
    13
    See Fish Facilities Unit Monitoring and Operations Projects, Cal.
    Dep’t of Wildlife, http://www.dfg.ca.gov/delta/data/salvage/
    salvageoverview.asp (last visited Oct. 20, 2014, 4:02 p.m.).
    50                       SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    of surviving outmigration than their counterpoints that are
    lucky enough to avoid entrainment.14
    NMFS concluded in the BiOp that as negative flow of the
    Old and Middle Rivers increases, fish are more likely to be
    diverted out of the main Delta and towards the pumping
    facilities. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 651. To counter this effect
    and enhance the likelihood of salmonids successfully exiting
    the Delta, several of the RPA Actions regulate negative flows
    and limit exports when fish numbers are high or are likely to
    be high. NMFS developed these RPA Actions, in part, by
    considering the raw number of fish salvaged at certain
    volumes of negative flow. See 
    id. at 361–62
    (Figs. 65 & 66).
    Plaintiffs argue that NMFS violated the ESA by using raw
    salvage data instead of data scaled to fish population. They
    assert that the number of fish salvaged every month could be
    related to the number of fish in the Delta rather than to the
    volume of negative flows in the Old and Middle Rivers. The
    district court agreed, concluding that it goes against the grain
    of traditional science to use raw instead of scaled salvage
    numbers. In re Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 827. And because “[t]he agency is required to apply
    generally recognized and accepted biostatistical principles,
    which constitute the best available science, in reaching its
    decisions,” NMFS’s use of raw salvage data was arbitrary or
    capricious. 
    Id. Defendants appeal
    that holding here.
    14
    A fish is “entrained” when it follows diverted water rather than the
    natural course of a river, stream, pond, or lake. The danger with
    entrainment is that fish can become stranded in irrigation canals or killed
    when they are trapped in pumps.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                       51
    This issue is almost entirely controlled by our holding in
    Delta Smelt. There, the consulting agency—FWS—also used
    raw salvage data to set maximum negative flows for the Old
    and Middle Rivers. See Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 606
    –07;
    2009 Delta Smelt BiOp at 349–50. We determined that the
    choice to use raw salvage data was appropriate for three
    reasons. First, the agency has substantial discretion to choose
    between available scientific models, provided that it explains
    its choice. See Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 610
    (citing Nw. Coal.
    for Alts. to Pesticides v. E.P.A., 
    544 F.3d 1043
    , 1050 (9th Cir.
    2008)). Second, other studies helped inform the specific flow
    requirements imposed. Finally, the flow limits “work in
    tandem with the incidental take statement (“ITS”), which
    accounts for population-level impacts.” 
    Id. at 608.
    All three factors are present here. First, the agency
    adequately explained why the loss data, although un-scaled
    to population, usefully assisted NMFS in identifying whether
    and how fish loss relates to negative flow velocity. See 2009
    Salmonid BiOp at 360–62; OCAP BA at 13-43–45.
    Second, NMFS—like FWS—did not base its maximum
    negative flow prescriptions on raw salvage data alone.
    Rather, it used the same particle tracking models FWS used
    in the Delta Smelt BiOp to evaluate the effect of heightened
    exports on naturally buoyant particles. 2009 Salmonid BiOp
    at 362–63. It also relied on studies, such as a 2008 study by
    Wim J. Kimmerer, to support its conclusion that there exists
    a positive relationship between the volume of water exported
    from project pumping plants and juvenile salmonid
    entrainment at those plants. See, e.g., 
    id. at 361;
    Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 612
    (describing how FWS used the same study).
    52                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    Finally, here—like in the Delta Smelt BiOp—the ITS
    uses population data to scale incidental take, and the RPA
    uses data generated from incidental take to introduce more
    restrictive flows in the Old and Middle Rivers. Like the Delta
    Smelt BiOp, the Salmonid BiOp sets a range of acceptable
    negative flow in the Old and Middle Rivers and requires the
    action agency to use population-based data generated from
    incidental take to scale in more permissive or restrictive
    flows, with a minimum flow of -5,000 cfs. 2009 Salmonid
    BiOp at 650.
    For these three reasons, the agency acted within its
    substantial discretion when it used a non-scaled data model
    to set flows in the Old and Middle Rivers.
    B. The Challenged Jeopardy Opinion Components Are
    Not Arbitrary or Capricious
    NMFS determined that the proposed continuing
    operations of the Projects are likely to jeopardize the viability
    and essential habitat of the listed species. 
    Id. at 575.
    The
    district court invalidated several specific components of this
    provision as arbitrary or capricious. See In re Consolidated
    Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 955–59. Defendants
    appeal the district court’s holdings, so we review them here.
    1. Winter-Run Chinook
    According to the district court, NMFS based its finding
    that ongoing CVP/SWP operations jeopardize winter-run
    Chinook in part on its determination that winter-run Chinook
    is at a “high risk” of extinction. 
    Id. at 864.
    The court
    concluded that NMFS’s “high risk” designation was
    “completely unsupported by the record.” 
    Id. As a
    result, the
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                        53
    district court determined that this aspect of the BiOp must be
    remanded and fixed.
    The district court was incorrect in so concluding. NMFS
    did not characterize winter-run Chinook as being at “high risk
    of extinction” instead of characterizing the species as being
    “not viable.” See 
    id. at 864.
    Rather, NMFS informed its
    designation of winter-run Chinook as “not viable” by
    considering Dr. Lindley’s 2007 study, in which he suggests
    that winter-run Chinook is at a “high risk” of extinction in
    several categories. See 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 85–88.
    NMFS discussed the limitations of Lindley’s categories and
    explained how it made up for these limitations by relying on
    other studies. See 
    id. (citing McElhany
    et al. (2000),
    Liermann and Hilborn (2001), and others). In doing so,
    NMFS adequately explained how its various descriptions of
    winter-run Chinook as “high risk” influenced its ultimate
    jeopardy opinion. Such an explanation is sufficient to satisfy
    State Farm’s requirement that the agency consider all
    relevant factors and offer an explanation for its conclusion
    that is grounded in the evidence. 
    See 463 U.S. at 43
    . Thus,
    this part of the BiOp need not be remanded and fixed.
    2. Southern Resident Orca
    NMFS concludes in the BiOp that continued CVP/SWP
    operations are likely to jeopardize the viability of the
    Southern Resident orca. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 573–74.
    The logic supporting this conclusion is relatively simple. The
    orca population at issue has fewer than ninety members, and
    so NMFS felt compelled to scrutinize “even small effects on
    the fitness of individuals that increase the risk of mortality or
    decrease the chances of successful reproduction.” 
    Id. at 573.
    Winter-run and spring-run Chinook are a critical prey base
    54                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    for the Southern Resident orca. 
    Id. According to
    NMFS,
    reduction in populations of this prey-base jeopardize the
    Southern Resident orca because, for example, less food
    requires whales to spend too much energy foraging and
    “insufficient prey could cause whales to rely upon their fat
    stores, which contain high contaminant levels.” 
    Id. NMFS concluded
    that continued CVP/SWP operations threaten the
    viability of winter-run and spring-run Chinook. 
    Id. at 574–75.
    This determination led it to also conclude that these
    operations jeopardize the Southern Resident orca. 
    Id. The district
    court reversed and remanded this conclusion.
    It held that NMFS did not consider all relevant factors of the
    problem because it failed to discuss a seemingly contrary
    finding it made, in a BiOp issued on May 5, 2009, that
    commercial ocean “harvest of salmon would not jeopardize
    the Southern Resident Killer Whales.”             See In re
    Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 864–65.
    The district court’s conclusion is incorrect because NMFS
    did discuss the 2009 Orca BiOp in the Salmonid BiOp,
    showing that it did not “entirely fail[] to consider” an aspect
    of the problem. See State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    . NMFS
    discussed the 2009 Orca BiOp as part of its baseline analysis.
    See 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 218–21. NMFS clarified that the
    2009 Orca BiOp—unlike the 2009 Salmonid BiOp—does not
    consider the long-term health of Chinook on the continued
    viability of the Southern Resident orca, but rather analyzes
    the year-to-year impact of commercial harvest on the whales’
    short-term food supply. 
    Id. at 218.
    In this way, NMFS
    distinguished the two BiOps as dealing with different time
    frames. NMFS’s discussion of how findings in the 2009 Orca
    BiOp relate to findings in the 2009 Salmonid BiOp, although
    brief, is sufficient to show that NMFS considered the 2009
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                      55
    Orca BiOp when developing the 2009 Salmonid BiOp. This
    consideration satisfies NMFS’s obligations under State Farm.
    
    See 463 U.S. at 43
    .
    3. Steelhead Critical Habitat
    The BiOp makes two relevant conclusions regarding how
    the proposed action will adversely modify CV steelhead
    critical habitat in the Stanislaus River. First, NMFS
    concludes that CV steelhead prefer to spawn when water is
    flowing at 200 cfs; proposed deviations from that flow could
    reduce spawnable habitat as much as ninety-five percent in
    some years. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 306, 311. Second,
    NMFS concludes that continued CVP/SWP operations,
    specifically those that dictate flows from the New Melones
    and Goodwin Dams, will degrade spawning gravel below the
    Goodwin Dam, thereby undermining replenishment efforts.
    
    Id. The district
    court found these conclusions to be arbitrary
    or capricious. Specifically, with regard to spawnable area,
    the district court found that NMFS used “maximum habitat”
    as a benchmark for evaluating the Projects’ impacts. That
    benchmark was improper because “maximizing” habitat is
    not a goal of the ESA. In re Consolidated Salmonid Cases,
    
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 935. The district court also found that no
    record evidence supported NMFS’s conclusion that the
    CVP/SWP operations cause the recorded gravel loss. 
    Id. at 936.
    We side with the agency on both issues. First, NMFS did
    not misapply the ESA by relying on a study that sets a goal of
    56                       SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    “maximizing” habitat.15 The record shows that NMFS looked
    to Aceituno (1993) and other studies to determine the point at
    which the Projects’ restriction of flows in the Stanislaus River
    would “appreciabl[y] reduce[]” habitat, see 2009 Salmonid
    BiOp at 42 (citing 50 C.F.R. § 402.02). The record does not
    show that NMFS abandoned the ESA’s prescription to “avoid
    jeopardy” in favor of Aceiunto’s goal of “maximizing
    habitat,” see 
    id. (discussing jeopardy
    requirement). Rather,
    NMFS explained why Aceiunto’s 1993 study provided an
    adequate baseline for developing minimum and pulse flows
    in the Stanislaus River.16 In providing this explanation,
    NMFS satisfied its obligations under the ESA and State
    
    Farm. 463 U.S. at 43
    .
    Second, the record provides adequate support (grounded
    in best available science) for NMFS’s conclusion that
    CVP/SWP operations negatively impact spawning gravel
    quantity and quality. Before construction of dams, channel
    forming flows of 8,000 cfs and mobilizing flows of 5,000 to
    8,000 cfs created channels—outside of traditional gravel
    spawning grounds—in which the river deposited fine
    sediment. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 308 (citing Mesick (2001);
    15
    It is to be expected that the language of the studies on which an
    agency relies will not always track the statutory language of the ESA. Not
    all studies are conducted to serve as a basis for section 7 consultation.
    Thus, the mere fact that Aceituno’s study seeks to “maximize” CV
    steelhead habitat does not require NMFS to disregard it.
    16
    See Memorandum from Rhonda Reed, Section 7 Biologist, on The
    Development of the Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPA) to Avoid
    Jeopardy to CV Steelhead in the Stanislaus River, Specifically as it
    Relates to Flow and Temperature 2–9 (May 31, 2009) (NMFS biologist
    Rhonda Reed describes how NMFS used Aceituno’s suggested minimum
    flows as a starting point but altered those flows based on discussions with
    agency and stakeholder scientists).
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                         57
    Kondolf et al. (2001)). But CVP/SWP operations have all but
    halted these flows in recent years. 
    Id. Thus, fine
    sediment
    collects in CV steelhead gravel spawning ground, degrading
    the quality of spawning areas. 
    Id. According to
    Dr.
    Kondolf’s 2001 study (upon which NMFS bases much of this
    part of the jeopardy opinion), “poor quality of spawning
    gravels due to deposition of sand and fine sediment” is one of
    four primary factors limiting salmon survival in the
    Stanislaus River.17 The specific component of the BiOp
    challenged here essentially adopts this conclusion. See 2009
    Salmonid BiOp at 308 (citing Kondolf et al. (2001)).
    Although NMFS could have done a better job making the
    connection between CVP/SWP operations and the quantity of
    gravel suitable for CV steelhead rearing, that connection is
    fairly discernable from a review of the “whole record.” See
    5 U.S.C. § 706; Bowman 
    Transp., 419 U.S. at 286
    . The
    conclusion is, thus, not arbitrary or capricious.
    4. Indirect Mortality Factors
    The BiOp evaluates the impact of both direct and indirect
    mortality factors on listed species. Direct mortality factors,
    such as entrainment, are those project components that
    directly harm or kill listed species. See 50 C.F.R. § 402.02.
    Indirect mortality factors are those caused by continued
    operations that do not directly cause the death of listed
    species, but lead to it. Those indirect mortality factors
    include predation, harm inflicted on native species by
    non-native species, pollution, and food limitations. See 2009
    Salmonid BiOp at 374. NMFS concludes that CVP/SWP
    17
    G.M. Kondolf, et al., Reconnaissance-Level Assessment of Channel
    Change and Spawning Habitat on the Stanislaus River Below Goodwin
    Dam, Rpt. to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1 (Mar. 22, 2001).
    58                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    operations cause indirect mortality for listed species by
    creating conditions in the Delta that favor non-native species,
    species that prey on listed Salmonids. CVP/SWP operations
    also negatively influence the listed species by lengthening the
    time members remain in the interior delta—where they are
    exposed to pollution and other indirect mortality
    factors—before outmigrating to the ocean. See 
    id. Plaintiffs challenged
    this finding at summary judgment.
    See In re Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at
    869–71. The district court mostly agreed with them, holding
    that although NMFS sufficiently established that Delta
    hydrologic conditions—as altered in part by the Projects—are
    favorable to invasive species, NMFS failed to articulate the
    connection among continuing Projects operations, invasive
    species, and harm to listed species. See 
    id. at 870
    (posing the
    following questions: “What effect do these exotics have on
    the Listed Species? To what extent does the contribution of
    the Projects to the continued presence of these exotics
    contribute to the jeopardy finding?”). That failure, according
    to the district court, rendered the indirect mortality analysis
    arbitrary and capricious. 
    Id. at 870–71.
    We disagree. NMFS adequately connected indirect
    mortality factors to CVP/SWP operations, thus satisfying its
    obligations under the APA and ESA. NMFS’s conclusion
    that the Projects’ operations exacerbate Salmonid indirect
    mortality proceeds in three steps. First, NMFS explains how,
    over the past half century, the Projects’ operations have
    worked to degrade the environment in the interior delta,
    converting a thriving river system into an unnatural inland
    lake-like habitat ill-suited to many native species. This
    statement is uncontested. See 
    id. at 870
    (“Plaintiffs do not
    directly contest the conclusion that the altered hydrologic
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                       59
    conditions are favorable for invasive species. Nor do
    Plaintiffs challenge the BiOp’s conclusion that CVP and SWP
    operations contribute to this ecosystem alteration.”). Second,
    NMFS concludes that continued CVP/SWP operations
    (specifically pumping from the Jones and Banks facilities)
    cause fish outmigrating through the main channels of the
    Delta to divert into intersecting channels that split off from
    the main rivers and lead towards the inner delta. 2009
    Salmonid BiOp at 374. The Projects’ operations cause this
    diversion by, among other things, reversing the flows of the
    Old and Middle Rivers. 
    Id. at 651
    (citing Vogel (2004) to
    support the conclusion that “fish chose channels leading south
    more frequently when exports were elevated, than when
    exports were lower”). Third, fish that are drawn through
    intersecting channels and into the inner Delta have a lower
    survival rate than fish that remain in the main Delta. 
    Id. at 375.
    Not all of these fish are killed in pumping plants; many
    are eaten by non-native predators, trapped by non-native
    plants, or fall prey to pollution in the inner Delta. 
    Id. at 374–81.
    The second step provides the critical causal link between
    the Projects’ operations and indirect mortality factors that the
    district court found lacking. We find that NMFS cited
    enough scientific evidence to support its conclusions that high
    levels of pumping from the Jones and Banks facilities
    influence fish to swim towards the inner Delta where they fall
    prey to indirect mortality factors. See 
    id. at 651
    (citing Vogel
    (2004), SJRGA (2006), SJRGA (2007), SJRGA (2008)).
    Although the agency’s analysis is not perfect, it may
    60                       SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    reasonably be discerned, see Bowman 
    Transp., 419 U.S. at 286
    , and is thus not arbitrary or capricious.18
    C. The Challenged RPA Actions Are Not Arbitrary or
    Capricious
    We now consider the RPA Actions invalidated by the
    district court. Before wading into the specific Actions, we
    clarify what the ESA and its implementing regulations require
    from an agency when the agency is developing RPAs as part
    of a BiOp.
    1. The Legal Requirements for an RPA Action
    ESA section 7 provides that “[i]f jeopardy or adverse
    modification is found [during consultation], the Secretary
    shall suggest those reasonable and prudent alternatives which
    he believes would not . . . ,” 16 U.S.C. § 1536(b)(3)(A),
    18
    Nevertheless, we can see where the district court got derailed into
    thinking that NMFS blamed continuing CVP/SWP operations for exotics
    in the Delta. See In re Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at
    870. NMFS essentially makes this statement, without any record support,
    in its summary of the indirect mortality component of the BiOp. 2009
    Salmonid BiOp at 382. The district court properly questioned this
    conclusion: NMFS did not support the assertion that continuing
    CVP/SWP operations cause that level of environmental decline. Although
    NMFS seemed to say as much on page 382 of the BiOp, the crux of its
    indirect mortality argument is in the pages preceding the summary on page
    382. NMFS makes clear that the question is not whether “altered project
    operations reduce [or exacerbate] the presence of exotics?” but rather
    “whether altered project operations could keep more fish in the main delta
    where they are less likely to come into contact with exotic species and
    die?” As explained, NMFS believes the answer to this question is yes,
    and it supported its conclusion by relying on the best available science.
    See, e.g., 
    id. at 651
    .
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                      61
    “jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered [or
    threatened] species . . .” or result in adverse modification of
    critical habitat, 
    id. § 1536
    (a)(2). Reasonable and prudent
    alternatives are alternative actions identified during formal
    consultation that (1) “can be implemented in a manner
    consistent with the intended purpose of the action,” (2) “can
    be implemented consistent with the scope of the Federal
    agency’s legal authority and jurisdiction,” (3) are
    “economically and technologically feasible,” and (4) “the
    Director believes would avoid the likelihood of jeopardizing
    the continued existence of listed species or resulting in the
    destruction or adverse modification of critical habitat.” 50
    C.F.R. § 402.02. The first three of these factors are the
    non-jeopardy factors developed by the agency. The final is
    the jeopardy factor, and it is taken from ESA section 7. See
    Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 634
    .
    Under these provisions, the district court reversed and
    remanded several RPA Actions because the agency did not
    (1) explain how each RPA Action is “essential to avoid
    jeopardy,” In re Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 922; see also 
    id. at 897
    n.26, or (2) explain how each
    RPA Action complies with § 402.02’s three non-jeopardy
    factors. We recently held in Delta Smelt that these are not the
    correct legal standards under which to evaluate an RPA
    Action. As we further clarify below, neither section 7 nor
    § 402.02 require NMFS to explain why each Action is
    “essential” or to fully elucidate the non-jeopardy factors.
    62                       SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    a. The ESA Does Not Require NMFS To
    Explain How Each RPA Action Is Essential
    To Avoid Jeopardy
    The district court held that § 402.02 requires NMFS to
    show how each RPA Action is essential to avoid jeopardy.19
    The effect of this holding was to impose an onerous, highly
    precise standard on NMFS under which the district court
    invalidated RPA Actions anytime NMFS did not explain why
    the Action was necessary, over all others, to preserve the
    species. See, e.g., In re Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 791 F.
    Supp. 2d at 898.
    As we explained in Delta Smelt, neither the ESA nor its
    implementing regulations require this level of precision from
    the agency. The ESA requires only that the agency impose
    RPAs that are “not likely to jeopardize” the species or its
    habitat. See 16 U.S.C. § 1536(a)(2), (b)(3)(B). The
    regulations interpret this section as requiring the agency to
    develop RPAs “that the Director believes” would avoid
    jeopardy. 50 C.F.R. § 402.02. This moderate and deferential
    language is a far cry from that which would impose a strictly
    essential requirement. Rather, this language imposes a
    “flexible standard for the consulting agency” that does not
    require the Secretary “to explain why he chose one RPA over
    another . . . .” Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 624
    (citing Sw. Ctr.
    for Biological Diversity v. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation,
    19
    The district court articulated its holding as requiring NMFS to explain
    how each RPA Action is an “essential component of an overall RPA
    designed to avoid jeopardy.” In re Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 791 F.
    Supp. 2d at 897 n.26. But in practice, the district court invalidated BiOp
    provisions when NMFS failed to explain how they were “essential to
    avoid jeopardy . . . .” 
    Id. at 922.
    That is the holding we review.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                        63
    
    143 F.3d 515
    , 523 (9th Cir. 1998)). Under this deferential
    standard, the agency need not pick the best RPA or the one
    most likely to avoid jeopardy. 
    Id. Rather, we
    give the
    agency flexibility to choose among several appropriate
    alternatives. We will uphold that choice so long as it is
    reasonably supported based on a review of the record as a
    whole. See Sw. Ctr. for Biological Diversity v. U.S. Bureau
    of 
    Reclamation, 143 F.3d at 523
    .
    b. The ESA Does Not Require NMFS To
    Articulate Compliance with the Non-Jeopardy
    Factors
    The district court also held that Agency regulations
    require NMFS to describe how each RPA Action meets
    § 402.02’s non-jeopardy factors. See In re Consolidated
    Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 917. It invalidated
    several RPA Actions, including Action IV.4.2, for failing to
    establish compliance with these factors. We hold that the
    district court erred in interpreting § 402.02.
    Again, this issue is largely controlled by Delta Smelt. We
    said in Delta Smelt that, “[n]othing in § 402.02 obligates the
    [consultation agency] . . . to address the non jeopardy factors
    when it proposes RPAs. Section 402.02 is a definitional
    section; it is defining what constitutes an RPA, not setting out
    hoops that the [consultation agency] . . . must jump 
    through.” 747 F.3d at 635
    . Thus, while “a ‘thorough’ documentation of
    jeopardy/adverse modification in the BiOp is always
    required, . . . documentation of the non jeopardy factors is
    only required when the RPA fails to meet a non jeopardy
    factor.” 
    Id. at 635–36.
    Based on this conclusion, we rejected
    the district court’s finding that the agency acted arbitrarily or
    capriciously by failing to include “some exposition in the
    64                      SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    record of why the agency concluded (if it did so at all) that all
    four regulatory requirements for a valid RPA were satisfied.”
    San Luis & Delta-Mendota Water Auth. v. Salazar, 760 F.
    Supp. 2d 855, 957 (E.D. Cal. 2010), aff’d in part rev’d in part
    by Delta Smelt, 
    747 F.3d 581
    .
    This holding applies with equal force here. NMFS is not
    required to document its compliance with § 402.02’s non-
    jeopardy factors. Rather, it needed only to fairly conclude—
    based on the record—that the proposed RPAs do not further
    jeopardize the listed species or adversely affect critical
    habitats. See Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 635
    . We evaluate
    whether it did so below.
    2. Challenged RPA Actions
    a. Action IV.2.1
    The district court invalidated several RPA Actions related
    to the San Joaquin Delta. The first, Action IV.2.1, prescribes
    San Joaquin River inflow to export ratios between April 1 and
    May 31. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 641. After a brief
    adjustment period, Action IV.2.1 requires Reclamation and
    DWR to implement specific flow to combined export ratios
    on the San Joaquin River (measured at Vernalis, California).
    
    Id. at 643.
    Those ratios are:
    San Joaquin Valley       Vernalis flow (cfs): CVP/SWP
    Classification             combined export ratio
    Critically dry                       1:1
    Dry                             2:1
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                          65
    Below normal                             3:1
    Above normal                             4:1
    Wet                                4:1
    2009 Salmonid BiOp at 643–44.
    The district court invalidated the 4:1 flow-to-export ratio
    as arbitrary and capricious. Although it concluded that record
    evidence provided support for some flow-to-export ratio, the
    district court determined that the agency did not provide
    sufficient support for the specific 4:1 flow-to-export ratio.
    See generally In re Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 791 F.
    Supp. 2d at 894–98.
    We disagree with the district court and hold that the
    record supports NMFS’s decision to impose the 4:1 ratio.
    NMFS bases its decision to impose a 4:1 flow-to-export ratio
    primarily on Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan (“VAMP”)
    studies of Chinook salmon smolts. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at
    644–45. VAMP has tested Salmonid survival based on a 2:1
    ratio, but not a 4:1 ratio. Drawing on VAMP and other data
    showing a positive correlation between a high-flow-to-low-
    export ratio and successful salmonid outmigration,20 NMFS
    concluded that “flow to export ratios should be at least 2:1
    and preferably higher to increase survival and abundance.”
    Stuart 4:1 
    Memo., supra, at 22
    . NMFS settled on the 4:1
    20
    Memorandum from Jeffrey Stuart, NMFS Fisheries Biologist, on The
    San Joaquin River “4:1 Flow to Export ratio” Reasonable and Prudent
    Alternative (RPA) for the formal section 7 consultation regarding the
    Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water
    Project 20–21 (June 2, 2009) [hereinafter Stuart 4:1 Memo.].
    66                  SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    ratio as a high ratio (appropriate in above-normal
    precipitation years) by studying historic monthly average
    flows at Vernalis. 
    Id. at 16.
    “This data shows that
    approximately 6,000 cfs of flow is available at Vernalis in 50
    percent of the wet and above normal water years.” 
    Id. at 17.
    Being that the minimum export level to maintain health and
    safety is 1,500 cfs, 
    id. at 22,
    a 4:1 export ratio in wet and
    above normal years—although maximally protective of
    fish—is traceable to the record. It is within the agency’s
    discretion to choose a conservative threshold that will afford
    maximum protection to the species so long as that threshold
    is fairly supported, which it is. Tenn. Valley Auth. v. Hill,
    
    437 U.S. 153
    , 184–85, 
    98 S. Ct. 2279
    (1978).
    b. Action IV.2.3 and Action IV.3
    Actions IV.2.3 and IV.3 specify river flow management
    strategies for the Old and Middle Rivers. Although the Old
    and Middle Rivers typically flow north, CVP and SWP
    pumping reverses that flow, drawing the water south to the
    Jones and Banks pumping plants. See Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 606
    . According to Particle Tracking Model (“PTM”) and
    fish tagging studies cited by NMFS, listed fish outmigrating
    through the San Joaquin River are vulnerable to diversion
    into the channels that lead to the export facilities when
    pumping is high and the flow of the Old and Middle Rivers
    is very negative. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 651. These
    diverted fish have a lower rate of survival than their
    counterparts that bypass the inner Delta and migrate directly
    through the outer Delta to the San Francisco Bay.
    Actions IV.2.3 and IV.3 seek to mitigate these effects by
    imposing negative flow restrictions on the Old and Middle
    Rivers. Action IV.2.3 requires the Projects to reduce exports
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                       67
    from the Jones and Banks pumping plants between January 1
    and June 15 such that the negative flow of the Old and
    Middle Rivers is limited to -2,500 to -5,000 cfs, depending on
    the presence of salmonids. 
    Id. at 648–52.
    Action IV.3
    requires the Projects to reduce exports between November 1
    and December 31 when fish salvage numbers (the numbers of
    fish caught at the pumps) meet certain triggers. 
    Id. at 652–53.
    The district court invalidated both Actions. It held, with
    regard to Action IV.2.3, that the agency did not adequately
    explain how imposition of the specific flow requirements in
    the Action are “essential to avoid jeopardy.” In re
    Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 909
    (citation omitted). It invalidated Action IV.3 because NMFS
    based the specific triggers on raw salvage data and “failed to
    provide any record explanation for why the specific triggers
    were chosen.” 
    Id. at 911.
    We again reverse the district court and find that the record
    supports NMFS’s decision to impose both Actions. The
    record fairly supports NMFS’s imposition of the particular
    flow restrictions in Action IV.2.3. PTM modeling cited by
    NMFS supports the conclusion that risk of fish entrainment
    at pumping facilities increases substantially between -2,500
    and -5,000 cfs. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 652. That same data
    shows that the risk of entrainment increases at an even greater
    rate with flow restrictions more negative than -5,000 cfs. 
    Id. Thus, it
    is reasonable for NMFS to impose the -2,500 to
    -5,000 cfs range as a minimum negative flow during times
    when salmonids are likely to pass channel openings. The raw
    data salvage numbers bolster this conclusion. According to
    that data, “[l]oss of older juveniles at the CVP and SWP fish
    collection facilities increases sharply at Old and Middle River
    flows of approximately -5,000 cfs . . . .” 
    Id. at 361.
    NMFS
    68                       SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    explained its rationale for imposing the specific flow
    restrictions in Action IV.2.3, and supports that rationale with
    what it has determined is the best available science—PTM
    studies and raw salvage data.21 It has, thus, satisfied its
    procedural and substantive obligations under the APA and
    ESA.
    Action IV.3 is also fairly traceable to the 2009 Salmonid
    BiOp and accompanying studies. NMFS explains that the
    triggers imposed by Action IV.3 are developed from previous
    work done by DWR, Reclamation, NMFS, and FWS.22 The
    specific triggers in Action IV.3 (eight fish/thousand acre feet
    or fifteen fish/thousand acre feet) come from data compiled
    by NMFS tending to show that when salvage exceeds those
    levels, there is a pulse of fish in the system. See Stuart PTM
    
    Memo., supra, at 28
    (Fig. 15). The agency’s decision to set
    these as particular triggers is based on its own data generated
    over nine years, data that is well documented in the BiOp and
    supporting memoranda. See 
    id. For that
    reason, these
    particular triggers are not arbitrary or capricious.
    c. Action IV.4.2
    Action IV.4.2 requires DWR to implement specific
    measures to (1) reduce pre-salvage fish loss and (2) improve
    21
    We have already held, consistent with our opinion in Delta Smelt, that
    NMFS acted within its considerable discretion when it elected to use raw
    salvage data as a guide for setting certain RPA Actions.
    22
    Memorandum from Jeffrey Stuart, NMFS Fisheries Biologist, on
    Particle Tracking Model results for Old and Middle River flow
    manipulation (June 3, 2009) [hereinafter Stuart PTM Memo.] (describing
    how the agencies have used a salmon “decision tree” based on salvage
    data).
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                       69
    salvage efficiency. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 655. To reduce
    pre-salvage loss, the Action requires DWR to “commence
    studies to develop predator control methods for Clifton Court
    Forebay,” the body of water the fish cross before reaching the
    Tracy and Skinner Fish Collection Facilities. 
    Id. at 656.
    The
    Action also sets a specific benchmark for salvage efficiency
    at the facilities, requiring DWR to “achieve a minimum 75
    percent salvage efficiency for CV salmon, steelhead, . . . and
    green sturgeon” at the Skinner Fish Collection Facility. 
    Id. at 655.
    Plaintiffs argued that this Action is not technologically or
    economically feasible and that the agency thus violated
    § 402.02 by requiring it. The district court agreed. It
    concluded that NMFS failed to “cite any record evidence
    indicating that the efficiency improvement, albeit a minor
    one, is economically or technologically feasible.” In re
    Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 926.
    Delta Smelt made clear that the ESA does not require
    NMFS to cite record evidence showing that each RPA Action
    is economically and technologically feasible. Delta 
    Smelt, 747 F.3d at 635
    . Thus, NMFS’s failure to cite such evidence
    here was not arbitrary or capricious.
    d. Action III.1.2
    The remaining actions challenged by Plaintiffs,
    invalidated by the district court, and challenged here, relate
    to CVP/SWP operations on the Stanislaus River, in the east
    side of the Central Valley.
    Action III.1.2 pertains to the temperature of the Stanislaus
    River. According to NMFS, increased temperature in the
    70                      SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    Stanislaus River threatens the critical habitat of the CV
    steelhead. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 619–20. To remedy this
    problem and achieve desired temperatures, Action III.1.2
    requires Reclamation to “make cold water releases from New
    Melones Reservoir to provide suitable temperatures for CV
    steelhead rearing, spawning, egg incubation smoltification,
    and adult migration in the Stanislaus River downstream of
    Goodwin Dam . . . .” 
    Id. at 620–21.
    Action III.1.2 includes
    an exception to this requirement when the projected
    temperatures cannot be achieved. 
    Id. at 621
    (describing the
    process that Reclamation should use to apply for an exception
    to the temperature requirements).
    The district court remanded this action to the agency after
    determining that the agency did not sufficiently document
    “the extent to which this RPA is ‘essential’ to avoiding
    jeopardy . . . .” In re Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 791 F.
    Supp. 2d at 947–49. More specifically, the court determined
    that because the Action includes an exception with “no
    limitations” it necessarily does not avoid jeopardy. 
    Id. at 947.
    The record does not support the district court’s conclusion
    that the “Federal Defendants describe an exception that ‘has
    no limitations.’” 
    Id. at 947.
    NMFS will consider granting an
    exception to the temperature requirements only when
    Reclamation demonstrates that “after taking all actions within
    its authorities, it is unlikely to meet” the temperature
    requirements. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 621. If that happens,
    Reclamation must convene the Stanislaus Operations Group
    (“SOG”)23 to obtain recommendations on how to proceed.
    23
    “Reclamation created a Stanislaus Operations Group (SOG) to provide
    a forum for real-time operational flexibility and implementation of the
    alternative actions defined in the RPA.” NOAA Fisheries, Stanislaus
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                          71
    See 
    id. at 621.
    If the SOG cannot come to a consensus,
    NMFS will make recommendations. Reclamation must
    satisfy several procedural requirements before NMFS will
    grant an exception under Action III.1.2, leading us to
    conclude that application of the exception is limited. For this
    reason, the record supports NMFS’s conclusion that
    imposition of Action III.1.2, notwithstanding its exception, is
    likely to avoid jeopardy.
    e. Action III.1.3
    Action III.1.3 also relates to how CVP/SWP operations on
    the Stanislaus River impact the CV steelhead. CV steelhead
    adults respond to certain flows in the Stanislaus River as a
    natural cue for fall migration. Juveniles depend on a
    particular volume of spring flows to assist them in migrating
    out of the River to the Delta and eventually to the Pacific
    Ocean. 
    Id. at 625.
    Pulse flows in the Stanislaus River also
    benefit CV steelhead habitat by maintaining gravel quality,
    promoting channel formation, and enhancing access to varied
    rearing habitats. 
    Id. at 624.
    To better provide these essential
    cues and to sustain CV steelhead habitat, Action III.1.3
    requires Reclamation to “operate releases from the East Side
    Division reservoir to achieve a minimum flow schedule as
    prescribed” in the RPA. 
    Id. at 623.
    The minimum flow
    schedule incorporates short periods of high volume flows in
    October (fall attraction flows), several times in March and
    April (outmigration cue flows), and in May (outmigration
    flows). 
    Id. Operations Group,
    http://www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/
    central_valley/water_operations/sog.html (last visited Oct. 20, 2014,
    4:58 p.m.).
    72                       SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    The district court invalidated this Action because NMFS
    failed to explain why the pulse flows would maintain gravel
    quality in the Stanislaus River. In re Consolidated Salmonid
    Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 950. It remanded for further
    explanation on this point, noting that “[p]articularly in light
    of the potentially high water costs of these pulse flows, the
    rationale for Action III.1.3 must be lawfully explained and
    justified on remand.” 
    Id. We hold
    that the district court erred by failing to defer to
    the Agency’s interpretation of a scientific study. NMFS
    based Action III.1.3’s flow numbers on a 2001 study
    conducted by Dr. Kondolf, et al. In that study, Dr. Kondolf,
    et al. conclude that “flows around 5,000 to 8,000 cfs are
    necessary” to mobilize the channel bed material. Kondolf et
    
    al., supra, at 36
    . NMFS determined, after weighing the
    relevant interests, that implementing pulse flows at the low-
    end of Kondolf’s flow range would achieve the appropriate
    balance between habitat protection and maintaining water
    reserves in the East Side Division Reservoir. See 
    Reed, supra, at 7
    –8. In doing so, NMFS balanced Kondolf’s pulse
    flow suggestions against Reclamation’s conclusion that
    prolonged flows exceeding 1,500 cfs would cause flooding.
    See 
    id. Congress delegated
    this type of balancing to
    administrative agencies when it passed the APA and ESA.
    See River Runners for 
    Wilderness, 593 F.3d at 1070
    . As long
    as the agency’s decision is properly documented, as it is here,
    we will not overturn it. See State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    .24
    24
    Nor do we overturn NMFS’s choice to use the SJR salmon model to
    help prescribe pulse flows on the Stanislaus River. Although it is true that
    the SJR model determines flows needed to double salmon population,
    NMFS explains why this model was a helpful guide for developing this
    RPA. Also, NMFS did not rely exclusively on this model to prescribe
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                             73
    f. Action III.2.2
    Finally, the district court invalidated RPA Action III.2.2,
    which relates to floodplain restoration and innundation flows
    in the Stanislaus River. Prior to the construction of the New
    Melones Dam in the late 1970s, snow melt from the Sierra
    Nevada Mountains created pulse flows in the Stanislaus River
    that formed new and scoured existing channels in the riverbed
    and surrounding floodplains. 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 627.
    CV steelhead juveniles used (and continue to use) these
    channels as a rearing habitat. 
    Id. However, the
    floodplain
    habitats that were “inundated before operation of the New
    Melones Dam have become fossilized with fine material and
    thick riparian vegetation that is never rejuvenated by
    scouring,” 
    id., because pulse
    flows from New Melones Dam
    are infrequent. Thus “[f]loodplain juvenile rearing habitat
    and connectivity will continue to be degraded by New
    Melones operations, as proposed.” 
    Id. To remedy
    this
    impact, Action III.2.2 requires Reclamation to “seek advice
    from SOG to develop an operational strategy to achieve
    floodplain innundation flows that inundate CV steelhead
    juvenile rearing habitat on a one- to three-year return
    schedule.” 
    Id. The district
    court found this action arbitrary
    or capricious, holding that because it defines no action per se,
    NMFS did not—and in fact could not—perform a feasibility
    analysis as required by 50 C.F.R. § 402.02. In re
    Consolidated Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 952.
    Stanislaus River flows. See 
    Reed, supra, at 5
    –7 (citing, in addition to the
    SJR salmon model, Aceituno (1993) and Cramer Fish Sciences (2009)).
    Thus, the record does not support the district court’s conclusion that
    “[n]othing in the record explains why it is appropriate to use a model
    designed to double the existing salmon population to set numeric flow
    targets to avoid jeopardy to the CV steelhead.” In re Consolidated
    Salmonid Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 950.
    74                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    The district court erred in invaliding this action. We held
    in Delta Smelt that § 402.02 does not require the consultation
    agency to explain how each Action is feasible. And neither
    Plaintiffs nor the district court provide any reason why the
    SOG would recommend an action that Reclamation and
    DWR could not adopt. See Sw. Ctr. for Biological Diversity
    v. U.S. Bureau of 
    Reclamation, 143 F.3d at 523
    –24 (noting
    that feasibility is examined from the perspective of the
    agency). Thus, this court has no reason to declare that Action
    III.2.2 violates § 402.02’s feasibility factor.
    VI.      CROSS-APPEAL
    Plaintiffs cross-appeal several components of the district
    court opinion in which the district court upheld the BiOp. We
    affirm the district court on all three cross-appeal issues.
    A. NMFS Need Not Distinguish Discretionary and Non-
    Discretionary Actions
    ESA section 7 provides that, after an agency seeks
    consultation on a potential project, the agency providing
    consultation shall write a BiOp “detailing how the agency
    action affects the species or its critical habitat.” 16 U.S.C.
    § 1536(b)(3)(A). To determine how agency action affects
    listed species, the consulting agency must analyze the action
    in relation to the “environmental baseline.” 50 C.F.R.
    § 402.02. “This baseline is intended to form a basic
    ‘snapshot’ of the status of the species at a particular moment
    in time before the action is taken.” Liebesman & 
    Petersen, supra, at 46
    .
    Plaintiffs argue that NMFS must separate discretionary
    aspects of the Projects from non-discretionary aspects of the
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                      75
    Projects to define the environmental baseline. The district
    court disagreed, holding that “[n]othing in the law requires
    NMFS to segregate discretionary aspects of coordinated
    Project operations from non-discretionary ones in the manner
    Export Plaintiffs demand.” In re Consolidated Salmonid
    Cases, 
    791 F. Supp. 2d
    at 852.
    Plaintiffs’ discretionary/non-discretionary argument is the
    same argument that we entertained and rejected in Delta
    Smelt. 
    See 747 F.3d at 638
    –40. We again reject these
    arguments and affirm the district court on this point.
    B. The Biological Opinion’s Indirect Mortality Factors
    Are Direct Effects Under the ESA
    For the purposes of ESA section 7 consultation, the
    “effect” of a proposed action includes both direct and indirect
    effects. 50 C.F.R. § 402.02. To show that something is an
    indirect effect of the proposed action, an agency must
    demonstrate (1) that it is caused by the action, (2) that it is
    later in time than the action, and (3) that it is reasonably
    likely to occur. 
    Handbook, supra, at 4-27
    (citing 50 C.F.R.
    § 402.02). Whether NMFS needed to make these findings
    with regard to “indirect mortality factors” identified in the
    BiOp, see 2009 Salmonid BiOp at 374, is a key issue on
    cross-appeal.
    NMFS concludes in the BiOp that CVP/SWP operations
    subject listed species to indirect mortality factors—such as
    predation and exposure to toxins—in the inner Delta. See
    generally 
    id. at 374–82.
    The district court determined that
    “the indirect mortality findings challenged by Plaintiffs do
    not constitute ‘indirect effects’” within the meaning of 50
    C.F.R. § 402.02 because they are “caused by the action
    76                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    subject to consultation, not by some other action . . . .” In re
    Consolidated Salmonid 
    Cases, 791 F. Supp. 3d at 868
    (citing
    
    Handbook, supra
    ).
    We agree with the district court. Indirect effects are
    typically more attenuated than those described in the 2009
    BiOp. National Wildlife Federation v. Coleman provides a
    clear, oft-cited example of an “indirect effect.” 
    529 F.2d 359
    ,
    373 (5th Cir. 1976). There, the Fifth Circuit held that the
    Department of Transportation must consider the residential
    and commercial development “that can be expected to result
    from the construction of the highway” as an indirect effect of
    highway construction. 
    Id. NMFS and
    FWS provide another
    example of an indirect effect in the consultation handbook.
    See 
    Handbook, supra
    , at 4-29. This example is a little bit
    closer to home:
    A very complex example of indirect effects
    arose in determining effects of renewing water
    services contracts . . . in the San Joaquin
    Basin . . . . Upon checking with other Federal
    and State agencies, the FWS determined that
    the distribution of water for agricultural use
    on the higher east side of the Valley provided
    a hydrologic head maintaining the
    groundwater table on the west side of the
    Valley at a level making it economical to
    pump.
    
    Id. As a
    result, residents could use the pumped water to
    convert the land to agriculture. But the conversion of the land
    to agriculture destroyed the habitat of several listed species.
    
    Id. FWS considered
    this an indirect effect of renewing the
    water services contracts. 
    Id. These two
    examples show that
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                      77
    an indirect effect—as envisioned by 50 C.F.R. § 402.02—is
    one that the action makes possible (or indeed, more
    probable), but does not directly cause.
    The indirect mortality factors described in the BiOp are
    direct effects. According to NMFS, CVP/SWP operations
    draw listed fish into the inner Delta by reversing the flows of
    the Old and Middle Rivers. See 2009 Salmonid BiOp at
    361–62. NMFS concludes that the interior Delta is a
    dangerous place for migrating salmonids partially because of
    Project operations. See 
    id. at 374–75,
    433. These effects
    occur concurrently with the Projects; they are not future
    “indirect” actions “reasonably certain” to occur. See
    50 C.F.R. § 402.02.
    C. Reclamation Is Not Independently Liable Under the
    ESA
    Plaintiffs’ argument that Reclamation is independently
    liable under the ESA is predicated on a finding that the BiOp
    is legally flawed. See Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe of Indians
    v. U.S. Dep’t of the Navy, 
    898 F.2d 1410
    , 1415 (9th Cir.
    1990) (compliance with a BiOp satisfies an action agency’s
    procedural obligations under the ESA, but it does not satisfy
    the agency’s substantive obligation to comply with section 7).
    Because we hold that the BiOp is legally sound, we dismiss
    Plaintiffs’ argument.
    VII.   CONCLUSIONS
    Based on the foregoing, we REVERSE the components of
    the district court’s opinion in which it invalidated the BiOp
    and AFFIRM the district court with regard to the three issues
    78                   SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    on cross-appeal. We REMAND for entry of summary
    judgment in favor of defendants.
    Each party shall bear its own costs.
    REVERSED IN PART, AFFIRMED IN PART, AND
    REMANDED.
    SAN LUIS V. LOCKE                       79
    GLOSSARY OF TERMS
    anadromous fish    fish that ascend rivers from the sea
    for breeding
    APA                Administrative Procedure Act
    BA                 Biological Assessment
    Bay-Delta          San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-
    San Joaquin Delta
    BiOp               2009 Salmonid Biological Opinion
    cfs                cubic feet per second
    CVP                Central Valley Project
    CVPIA              Central Valley Project Improvement
    Act
    DWR               California Department of Water
    Resources
    ESA                Environmental Species Act
    IFIM               incremental flow instream
    methodology
    ITS                Incidental Take Statement
    80                SAN LUIS V. LOCKE
    listed species    (1) the Sacramento River winter-run
    Chinook salmon (“winter-run
    Chinook”); (2) the Central Valley
    spring-run Chinook salmon (“spring-
    run Chinook”); (3) the Central
    Valley steelhead (“CV steelhead”);
    (4) the threatened Southern Distinct
    Population Segment of North
    American green sturgeon (“green
    sturgeon”); and the Southern
    Resident killer whales (“Southern
    Resident orcas”).
    NMFS              National Marine Fisheries Service
    the Projects      Central Valley Project and State
    Water Project
    PTM               Particle Tracking Model
    RPA               reasonable and prudent alternatives
    Reclamation       U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
    SOG               Stanislaus Operations Group
    SWP               State Water Project
    VAMP              Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 12-15144, 12-15289, 12-15290, 12-15291, 12-15293, 12-15296

Judges: Tallman, Rawlinson, Rice

Filed Date: 12/22/2014

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 10/19/2024

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