James Hardy v. Kevin Chappell, Warden ( 2017 )


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  •                      FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    JAMES EDWARD HARDY,                        No. 13-56289
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    D.C. No.
    v.                   2:11-cv-07310-VAP-PJW
    KEVIN CHAPPELL,
    Respondent-Appellant.              ORDER AND
    AMENDED OPINION
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Central District of California
    Virginia A. Phillips, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted October 20, 2015
    Pasadena, California
    Filed August 11, 2016
    Amended January 27, 2017
    Before: Harry Pregerson and Consuelo M. Callahan,
    Circuit Judges, and Stanley Allen Bastian, District Judge.*
    Order;
    Dissent to Order by Judge Bea;
    *
    The Honorable Stanley Allen Bastian, District Judge for the U.S.
    District Court for the Eastern District of Washington, sitting by
    designation.
    2                      HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    Opinion by Judge Bastian;
    Dissent by Judge Callahan
    SUMMARY**
    Habeas Corpus
    The panel amended an August 11, 2016, opinion
    reversing the district court’s judgment denying a habeas
    corpus petition challenging convictions for two counts of
    first degree murder and one count of conspiracy to collect life
    insurance proceedings; denied a petition for panel rehearing;
    and denied on behalf of the court a petition for rehearing en
    banc.
    Judge Bea – joined by Judges O’Scannlain, Gould,
    Tallman, Bybee, Callahan, M. Smith, Ikuta, N.R. Smith and
    Owens – dissented from the denial of rehearing en banc.
    Judge Bea wrote that (1) in finding that the California
    Supreme Court applied an incorrect standard to determine
    whether the petitioner was prejudiced by undisputed
    ineffective assistance of counsel, the panel majority fly-
    specked some of the court’s language and denigrated other
    language that clearly stated its use of the proper standard;
    and (2) in deciding that the California Supreme Court’s
    conclusion that the petitioner was not prejudiced was based
    on unreason rather than compelling evidence in the record,
    the panel majority abandoned any notion of the proper
    deference owed to a state court’s judgment under AEDPA.
    **
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It has
    been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                       3
    COUNSEL
    Elizabeth Richardson-Royer (argued), Deputy Federal Public
    Defender; Hilary Potashner, Federal Public Defender; Federal
    Public Defender’s Office, Los Angeles, California; for
    Petitioner-Appellant.
    Colleen M. Tiedemann (argued), Deputy Attorney General;
    Kenneth C. Bryne, Supervising Deputy Attorney General;
    Lance E. Winters, Senior Assistant Attorney General; Gerald
    A. Engler, Chief Assistant Attorney General; Kamala D.
    Harris, Attorney General; Office of the Attorney General, Los
    Angeles, California; for Respondent-Appellee
    ORDER
    The opinion filed on August 11, 2016 is amended as
    follows:
    Slip Opinion page 4: change “the apartment of
    Clifford” to “the home of Clifford”
    Slip Opinion page 5: change “lived in an
    apartment complex on Vose Street” to “lived
    in a home on Saticoy Street”
    Slip Opinion page 5: change “Reilly also lived
    in the Vose Street apartments.” to “Reilly
    lived in an apartment complex on Vose Street
    in Van Nuys.”
    Slip Opinion page 5: change “Morgan’s
    apartment” to “Morgan’s home”
    4                   HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    Slip Opinion page 8: change “entered the
    apartment” to “entered the home”
    Slip Opinion page 9: change “Morgan’s
    apartment” to “Morgan’s home”
    Slip Opinion page 17: change “Morgan’s
    apartment” to “Morgan’s home”
    Judges Pregerson and Bastian have voted to deny the
    petition for panel rehearing and have recommended denying
    the petition for rehearing en banc. Judge Callahan has voted
    to grant the petition for panel rehearing and petition for
    rehearing en banc.
    The full court was advised of the petition for rehearing en
    banc. A judge requested a vote on whether to rehear the
    matter en banc. The matter failed to receive a majority of
    votes of the nonrecused active judges in favor of en banc
    consideration. Fed. R. App. P. 35.
    The petition for panel rehearing and the petition for
    rehearing en banc are DENIED. No future petitions for
    rehearing will be entertained.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                        5
    BEA, Circuit Judge, with whom O’SCANNLAIN, GOULD,
    TALLMAN, BYBEE, CALLAHAN, M. SMITH, IKUTA,
    N.R. SMITH, and OWENS, Circuit Judges, join, dissenting
    from the denial of rehearing en banc:
    Two years ago, the Supreme Court reversed a judgment
    of this court where we had failed to give the proper
    deference owed to a state-court habeas decision under the
    Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act (“AEDPA”),
    28 U.S.C. § 2254. See Davis v. Ayala, 
    135 S. Ct. 2187
    , 2208
    (2015). Last year, we followed Davis in upholding a state-
    court decision where “its invocation of the Strickland
    prejudice standard might have been ambiguous but was not
    clearly incorrect.” Mann v. Ryan, 
    828 F.3d 1143
    , 1147 (9th
    Cir. 2016) (en banc). The panel’s decision departs from the
    instruction of Davis and its implementation in Mann. This
    case ought to have been reheard en banc for two reasons.
    First, a divided panel of this court found that a unanimous
    California Supreme Court decision by Justice Werdegar
    applied an incorrect standard to determine whether habeas
    petitioner James Edward Hardy (“Hardy”) was prejudiced by
    the undisputed ineffective assistance of trial counsel. The
    panel majority got there by out-of-context “fly-specking”
    some of that court’s language, and denigrating other language
    that clearly stated its use of the proper standard.
    Second, perhaps recognizing the weakness of its argument
    that the California Supreme Court had applied the wrong
    standard, the panel majority pivoted to its secondary
    argument that, assuming the state court had applied the
    correct standard, its application of that standard was
    unreasonable. The state court had determined that Hardy was
    not prejudiced by the ineffective assistance of counsel
    6                    HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    because the state produced ample evidence that Hardy
    conspired to kill the victims to obtain life insurance proceeds
    and aided and abetted the commission of the murders. In
    deciding that the California Supreme Court’s conclusion was
    based on unreason, rather than the compelling evidence in the
    record, the majority simply abandoned any notion of the
    proper deference owed to a state court’s judgment under
    AEDPA.
    Both of the majority’s determinations are contrary to
    repeated Supreme Court instructions to us as to how we must
    treat state-court decisions in our interpretation and application
    of AEDPA. I respectfully dissent from our refusal to rehear
    this case en banc.
    I. Factual and Procedural History
    The background of this case is important for appreciating
    how far the majority exceeded the limited scope of its review
    under AEDPA. Clifford Morgan (“Morgan”) devised a plan
    to have his wife and son killed so he could collect on their life
    insurance policies. In re Hardy, 
    163 P.3d 853
    , 860 (Cal.
    2007). He enlisted Mark Anthony Reilly (“Reilly”) to help
    with the plan. 
    Id. Reilly at
    first failed to recruit Calvin Boyd
    (“Boyd”) to participate in the murders. 
    Id. According to
    the
    state, Reilly then recruited appellant Hardy to help commit
    the murders. 
    Id. Sometime in
    the night of May 20–21, 1981,
    multiple assailants went to Morgan’s home, cut a chain lock
    with bolt cutters, and stabbed Morgan’s wife and son to
    death. 
    Id. Hardy, Reilly,
    and Morgan were tried together in Los
    Angeles County Superior Court. 
    Id. at 862.
    Hardy was
    represented by Los Angeles County Deputy Public Defender
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                              7
    Michael Demby (“Demby”). 
    Id. Hardy and
    Reilly were
    convicted of two counts of first degree murder, one count of
    conspiracy to commit murder to collect life insurance
    proceeds, and several special-circumstance allegations.1 
    Id. at 863.
    In the penalty phase, Hardy and Reilly were both
    sentenced to death. 
    Id. at 859.
    Hardy filed a habeas petition in the California Supreme
    Court, alleging ineffective assistance of counsel by Demby
    and requesting relief as to the penalty phase. 
    Id. at 863.
    The
    California Supreme Court ordered the state to show cause
    why Hardy was not entitled to penalty phase relief because
    Demby had failed to call available mitigation witnesses. 
    Id. at 864.
    Upon the California Supreme Court’s order, a referee
    heard evidence that incriminated Boyd in the murders (the
    “Boyd evidence”). See 
    id. at 867–81.
    The referee entered
    findings of fact and conclusions of law, which found Demby
    performed deficiently when he failed to investigate and
    present evidence that Boyd had done the stabbing and was the
    actual killer. See 
    id. at 864,
    885. Based on the factual
    findings in the referee’s report, Hardy filed a second petition
    for a writ of habeas corpus arguing that evidence from that
    hearing also required guilt-phase relief. 
    Id. at 859.
    The California Supreme Court consolidated Hardy’s
    petitions for penalty-phase and guilt-phase relief. 
    Id. In a
    unanimous opinion authored by Justice Werdegar, the court
    granted Hardy’s petition to vacate the judgment of the penalty
    phase. 
    Id. at 895.
    For his guilt-phase relief petition, the
    1
    Morgan was also convicted of capital murder charges, but his case was
    severed from the other two co-defendants for the penalty phase because
    of his failing health. In re 
    Hardy, 163 P.3d at 863
    . Morgan died of bone
    cancer before the penalty phase of his separate trial. 
    Id. 8 HARDY
    V. CHAPPELL
    California Supreme Court agreed with Hardy that Demby’s
    performance was constitutionally deficient under the
    Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 687 (1984),
    standard. See In re 
    Hardy, 163 P.3d at 884
    –85. However, the
    court also found that Hardy did not suffer prejudice therefrom
    in the guilt phase. 
    Id. at 891.
    The court reasoned that, even
    though the Boyd evidence may have cast doubt on Hardy’s
    role as the killer who stabbed the victims to death, there had
    been ample evidence at trial to convict Hardy of first degree
    murder on a conspiracy theory, 
    id. at 888–90,
    and on an
    aiding-and-abetting theory, 
    id. at 890–91.
    As the court stated,
    After weighing this evidence and considering
    what petitioner’s trial would have looked like
    had he been represented by competent
    counsel, we conclude that although there is a
    reasonable probability the jury would not have
    convicted petitioner on the prosecution’s
    proffered theory that he was the actual killer,
    ample evidence remains that petitioner was
    guilty of the murders on the alternative
    theories that he conspired with, and aided and
    abetted, Reilly, Morgan and others to commit
    the murders.
    
    Id. at 891
    (citation omitted).2
    2
    Perhaps this case would not even be here had Justice Werdegar
    inserted “on the other hand, there is no reasonable probability the jury
    would have acquitted on the prosecution theories of conspiracy and aiding
    and abetting because ample evidence remains that petitioner was guilty of
    the murders on the alternative theories.” But can the second part of that
    paragraph be read any other way?
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                             9
    Hardy then filed a habeas petition in the United States
    District Court for the Central District of California. A
    magistrate judge issued a report and recommendation denying
    Hardy’s claims. Hardy v. Martel, 
    2013 WL 3223392
    at *1
    (C.D. Cal. June 24, 2013). The district court accepted the
    report, entered judgment denying the petition, and issued a
    certificate of appealability as to “[w]hether the state supreme
    court reasonably concluded that Hardy was not prejudiced as
    a result of his counsel’s failure to uncover and expose the fact
    that a key government witness, Calvin Boyd, was probably
    the person who committed the murders.” 
    Id. (alteration in
    original).
    A majority of the panel voted to reverse the district
    court’s judgment. The majority held that the California
    Supreme Court had applied a standard contrary to clearly
    established law in analyzing Strickland prejudice because
    the opinion uses the words “substantial evidence” at certain
    points in describing the evidence in the record.3 Analyzing
    Hardy’s Strickland claim de novo, the panel held that Hardy
    was prejudiced in the guilt phase by Demby’s deficient
    performance. In the alternative, assuming the California
    Supreme Court applied the correct standard, the majority
    held that Justice Werdegar’s application of the Strickland
    prejudice prong was unreasonable.
    3
    Tellingly, the majority opinion does not mention Justice Werdegar’s
    use of the phrase “ample evidence” three times to describe the strong
    evidence that Hardy was guilty because of the derivative theories of
    liability.
    10                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    II. Justice Werdegar         Applied     the   Correct
    Prejudice Standard
    The majority’s claim that Justice Werdegar used an
    incorrect standard—that she weighed evidence to see whether
    it constituted “substantial evidence” to determine whether
    prejudice as defined by Strickland existed—is inconsistent
    with her language elsewhere and her methodology throughout
    the opinion. She properly applied Strickland’s reasonable
    probability standard to determine whether prejudice resulted
    from the ineffective assistance of counsel in failing to
    investigate and to properly cross-examine Boyd.
    First, she unquestionably stated the proper, Strickland
    prejudice standard and the majority opinion so recognized:
    Second, he must also show prejudice flowing
    from counsel’s performance or lack thereof.
    Prejudice is shown when there is a
    “reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s
    unprofessional errors, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different. A
    reasonable probability is a probability
    sufficient to undermine confidence in the
    outcome.”
    In re 
    Hardy, 163 P.3d at 883
    –84 (emphasis added) (citations
    omitted) (quoting In re Avena, 
    909 P.2d 1017
    , 1032–33 (Cal.
    1996)); see also 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    (“A reasonable
    probability is a probability sufficient to undermine confidence
    in the outcome.”).
    She then started her analysis of whether Hardy had
    proved prejudice by correctly explaining the three relevant
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                       11
    elements of the Strickland prejudice analysis in the particular
    context of Demby’s deficient performance.
    (1) What evidence was available that counsel failed
    reasonably to discover?
    (2) How strong was that evidence?
    (3) How strong was the evidence of guilt produced at
    trial?
    As to the first element, she found in favor of Hardy:
    “Subtracting Boyd’s testimony, the evidence that petitioner
    was the actual killer was weak and circumstantial.” 
    Id. at 886.
    She also found in favor of Hardy as to the second
    element. Properly presented, the Boyd evidence would have
    shown that “the evidence that petitioner committed the
    murders was much weaker,” so that there was a reasonable
    probability the jury would not have convicted him as the
    actual killer of the two Morgans. 
    Id. at 890.
    But as to the third element, the evidence of guilt on the
    alternative theories of (1) conspiring to commit the murders
    and (2) aiding and abetting the commission of the murders,
    the evidence was indeed strong and was not undermined by
    Boyd’s testimony. “[H]e [petitioner] was strongly linked to
    the conspiracy.” 
    Id. (emphasis added).
    Justice Werdegar
    provided a detailed discussion of the linkage:
    “According to Debbie Sportsman [the then-
    girlfriend of Reilly, the codefendant on the
    murder charges], Reilly began associating
    with Hardy around May 10, 1981. She
    testified that the two men had many private
    12               HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    conversations during this period and often
    drank and took drugs together. On the
    evening of May 20, 1981, the night of the
    killings, Debbie met with Hardy and Reilly at
    the latter’s apartment. Reilly spoke with
    Morgan on the telephone and asked him if he
    wanted to go through with the killing.
    Morgan, who was in Carson City, answered
    that he did.” Petitioner thereafter discussed
    his alibi with Colette Mitchell [Hardy’s then-
    girlfriend] “all the time,” and he coordinated
    his alibi with Reilly as well. According to
    Colette, petitioner knew several details about
    the crimes, including that the assailants had
    used a tool to cut the chain lock, that life
    insurance proceeds were the reason for the
    killing, that the money was collecting interest,
    and that Reilly was in charge.            Most
    incriminating was petitioner’s receipt of
    $1,000 in $100 bills after the murders, his
    instruction to Colette to dispose of his shoes
    on learning that police might have discovered
    some footprints at the crime scene, and his
    direction to dispose of the M–1 carbine rifle
    allegedly stolen from the Morgan home. Even
    discounting petitioner’s inconsistent
    statements to Colette about whether he had
    participated in the actual killing, there is
    ample evidence showing he participated in
    the plan to kill the victims as part of a
    wider conspiracy to defraud the insurance
    companies.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                            13
    
    Id. (emphasis added)
    (citation omitted) (quoting People v.
    Hardy, 
    825 P.2d 781
    , 796 (Cal. 1992)). Justice Werdegar
    relied on this ample evidence4 of Hardy’s role in the
    conspiracy, in contradistinction to the weak evidence that he
    was the actual stabber, in concluding that Demby’s deficient
    performance did not prejudice Hardy as to the verdict of guilt.
    Her conclusion is reasonable if one considers what the
    evidence of Boyd’s perfidy—left on the cutting room floor by
    trial counsel—accomplished. That evidence showed that
    Hardy did not wield the knife, Boyd did. But the evidence
    unearthed about Boyd did nothing to rebut the evidence of
    Hardy’s participation in the conspiracy and his aiding and
    abetting. As Justice Werdegar fulsomely relates, “such
    deficient representation nevertheless does not require reversal
    of the guilt judgment because counsel’s failure to investigate
    did not undermine the prosecution’s theory that petitioner
    conspired to commit the murders, and such conspiracy
    rendered petitioner liable for first degree murder irrespective
    of the possibility that a third party actually killed the
    victims.” 
    Id. at 859–60
    (bolded emphasis added). And again,
    But this [Boyd] evidence does not
    undermine5 other critical evidence, such as
    the testimony of Colette Mitchell, who
    testified petitioner told her he was going to
    4
    As noted above, the California Supreme Court opinion described this
    derivative liability evidence as “ample” when it expressly weighed the
    evidence by the reasonable-probability standard. See In re 
    Hardy, 163 P.3d at 890
    .
    5
    Note the use of the precise term used in Strickland —“undermine
    confidence”—to measure what constitutes prejudice under Strickland. See
    
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    .
    14                      HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    steal something from someone to enable the
    collection of insurance proceeds;6 that he had
    been to the victims’ home the night of the
    murders; that he knew the crime was to be
    accomplished by cutting the chain on the
    door; that he received $1,000, apparently for
    his participation in either the conspiracy or the
    murders themselves; that Morgan was not
    worried about the delay the trial caused
    because his money was earning interest while
    he was in jail; or that people who said the
    murder was committed by more than one
    person were wrong because he “[knew] for a
    fact it was one.” The referee’s findings also
    do not fatally undermine Colette’s testimony
    regarding petitioner’s suspicious instructions
    to her to help dispose of both the stolen M–1
    carbine rifle and his shoes. That petitioner
    went to the victims’ home with Reilly and
    Boyd is also possible. In short, although the
    weight and breadth of the evidence showing
    Boyd participated in the murders is disturbing,
    such evidence does not fatally undermine
    the prosecution’s entire case against
    petitioner.
    
    Id. at 883
    (alteration in original) (bolded emphasis added). It
    was the fact that the Boyd evidence did not undermine the
    conspiracy and aiding-and-abetting convictions—not that
    6
    During the event, the perpetrators took an M–1 rifle from the Morgan
    home and cut a chain lock with bolt cutters to make it look as if a forcible
    entry and burglary had occurred. Actually, Reilly gained entry to the
    Morgan home with a key from Mr. Morgan.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                      15
    the conspiracy and aiding-and-abetting evidence was
    “substantial”—which drove the state court’s decision that
    there was no prejudice under the Strickland “undermining”
    test for prejudice. “Undermine confidence in the outcome”
    is the proper Strickland test and the one used by Justice
    Werdegar, as shown by her repeated use of the term
    “undermine” when weighing the evidence. Moreover, the
    California Supreme Court quite clearly applied the correct
    Strickland standard when it concluded its prejudice analysis:
    Because petitioner would have been convicted
    of two first degree murders on these two
    theories of derivative liability irrespective of
    Demby’s unreasonable failure to investigate
    and present evidence of the Boyd connection,
    petitioner fails to demonstrate he would have
    achieved a more favorable outcome at the
    guilt phase had Demby competently
    investigated the Boyd connection.
    Accordingly, we conclude petitioner fails to
    demonstrate prejudice at the guilt phase
    fl o wing from Demby’s deficient
    representation.
    
    Id. at 891
    (citing 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 687
    –88).
    As Judge Callahan noted in dissent, we recently
    reaffirmed that, in habeas cases, when “it is possible to read
    the state court’s decision in a way that comports with clearly
    established federal law . . . we must do so.” 
    Hardy, 832 F.3d at 1144
    (Callahan, J. dissenting) (alterations in original)
    (quoting 
    Mann, 828 F.3d at 1157
    –58). We follow this
    approach because the Supreme Court has made clear that “[a]
    readiness to attribute error is inconsistent with the
    16                     HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    presumption that state courts know and follow the law. It is
    also incompatible with § 2254(d)’s ‘highly deferential
    standard for evaluating state-court rulings,’ which demands
    that state-court decisions be given the benefit of the doubt.”
    Woodford v. Visciotti, 
    537 U.S. 19
    , 24 (2002) (per curiam)
    (citations omitted) (quoting Lindh v. Murphy, 
    521 U.S. 320
    ,
    333 n.7 (1997)).
    This is not a case where we really need to give the
    California Supreme Court “the benefit of the doubt.” But
    instead of following the Supreme Court’s clear instructions,
    the majority went out of its way to find fault with the opinion.
    Ignoring Justice Werdegar’s careful reasoning for finding no
    prejudice, the majority focused exclusively on the opinion’s
    use of the term “substantial evidence.” According to the
    majority, Justice Werdegar applied a “substantial evidence”
    standard to determine that Hardy suffered no prejudice from
    Demby’s performance.
    But Justice Werdegar was not weighing the evidence by
    a “substantial evidence” standard. Instead, she used the term
    “substantial evidence” six times to explain that extensive and
    compelling evidence supported the prosecution’s theory that
    Hardy was guilty of murder because he conspired with, and
    aided and abetted, others to commit the murders. She
    characterized this derivative liability evidence as
    “substantial” in contradistinction to her assessment that the
    evidence that Hardy was the actual stabber was weak and
    undermined by the Boyd evidence.7 As noted above, she also
    7
    The opinion makes this point clear when it explains that the court
    would be required to vacate the murder convictions if the court were
    considering only the actual stabber theory. In re 
    Hardy, 163 P.3d at 888
    .
    But vacating the convictions is not necessary, according to the court,
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                               17
    stated that this derivative liability evidence was “ample.”
    The majority’s assertion that Justice Werdegar’s opinion
    weighed the critical evidence related above by whether it was
    “substantial” rather than whether this evidence precluded a
    reasonable probability of a different result is not a fair
    reading of the opinion.
    III.      Justice Werdegar’s Application of the
    Strickland Prejudice Standard Was
    Reasonable
    Perhaps recognizing the weakness of its argument that the
    California Supreme Court applied the incorrect standard, the
    majority equivocated and suggested that, even if the
    California Supreme Court had applied the correct standard, its
    application of that standard was unreasonable. According to
    the majority, if Demby had presented the Boyd evidence, the
    prosecution’s theory that Hardy was the actual stabber would
    have been undermined. Therefore, in the majority’s
    estimation, this reasonable doubt as to Hardy’s role as the
    actual stabber would have also changed the jury’s view of
    Hardy’s guilt as a co-conspirator and as an aider and abettor
    of the murders.
    But the majority’s eagerness to find that the California
    Supreme Court opinion was an unreasonable application of
    the Strickland prejudice standard also conflicts with
    established Supreme Court precedent. In Harrington v.
    Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    (2011), this court had granted a habeas
    petition after trial counsel for the petitioner failed to present
    because the prosecutor also proceeded on the derivative theories of
    liability, and petitioner could not show prejudice as to the verdict because
    of the evidence which amply supported those theories of guilt. 
    Id. 18 HARDY
    V. CHAPPELL
    expert testimony on blood evidence that would have bolstered
    the petitioner’s theory of the case. 
    Id. at 97.
    The Supreme
    Court reversed and noted that the petitioner had not
    established Strickland prejudice because “[t]here was ample
    basis for the California Supreme Court to think any real
    possibility of Richter’s being acquitted was eclipsed by the
    remaining evidence pointing to guilt.” 
    Id. at 113.
    As explained above, Justice Werdegar did not abuse the
    broad discretion established by AEDPA in finding that the
    compelling evidence of conspiracy and aiding-and-abetting
    guilt precluded a finding of Strickland prejudice. That
    evidence was both “substantial” and “ample.” The girlfriends
    of Hardy and Reilly at the time, Collette Mitchell and Debbie
    Sportsman respectively, testified to Hardy’s close association
    with Reilly in the weeks leading up to the murder. Sportsman
    testified that Hardy was with Reilly when Reilly spoke on the
    phone with Morgan and Morgan confirmed he wanted the
    killings to happen. Mitchell testified that Hardy had detailed
    knowledge of the crime’s execution, that Hardy received
    money for his role in the murders, and that Hardy tried to
    dispose of physical evidence linking him to the crime scene.
    Even if we would reach a different conclusion as to whether
    Hardy was prejudiced by Demby’s performance, it was not
    unreasonable for Justice Werdegar to conclude that—
    correctly applying the Strickland prejudice standard—this
    highly incriminating evidence precluded a reasonable
    probability of a different jury verdict. The panel majority
    failed to appreciate this essential point when it decided that
    its interpretation of the paper record was the only reasonable
    conclusion.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                       19
    V. Conclusion
    The Supreme Court has repeatedly admonished this court
    that it should not reverse reasonable state-court decisions on
    habeas review. The majority nit-picked a unanimous opinion
    that repeatedly quoted Strickland in order to conclude that the
    California Supreme Court did not apply the long-settled and
    well-known prejudice standard for ineffective-assistance-of-
    counsel cases. The majority also decided that, if the
    California Supreme Court in fact applied what it said it was
    applying, then the California Supreme Court acted
    unreasonably by not accurately imagining how the jury would
    have reacted to the Boyd evidence. The majority’s
    unacknowledged reinterpretation of AEDPA deference is in
    conflict with precedents of the Supreme Court and this court.
    I respectfully dissent from our failure to rehear this case
    en banc.
    OPINION
    BASTIAN, District Judge:
    During the night of May 20, 1981, someone entered the
    home of Clifford and Nancy Morgan and brutally stabbed
    Nancy Morgan and their eight-year-old son to death.
    According to the State of California, that someone was James
    Edward Hardy. The State argued that theory at trial, obtaining
    a conviction and death sentence for Hardy. As it turns out,
    that someone was likely Calvin Boyd, a key prosecution
    witness at Hardy’s trial. Yet Hardy remains imprisoned,
    serving a life sentence.
    20                      HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    The Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of
    1996 (“AEDPA”) raised the standard of review for
    petitioners, greatly limiting the success rate of petitions for
    writs of habeas corpus.1 Despite the demanding standard set
    by AEDPA for state inmates, this case does not present a
    close question—Hardy is entitled to a writ of habeas corpus
    pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2254.
    Factual and Procedural History2
    Clifford Morgan (hereinafter “Morgan”) lived in a home
    on Saticoy Street in Van Nuys, California, with his wife,
    Nancy, and their eight-year-old son. Morgan devised a
    sinister plan to have his wife and son killed so he could
    collect on their life insurance policies. He enlisted the help of
    Mark Anthony Reilly. Reilly lived in an apartment complex
    on Vose Street in Van Nuys. Reilly agreed to Morgan’s plan
    and sought a partner for the murders. In exchange for this
    help, Morgan allowed Reilly to live in Morgan’s home and
    promised to allow Reilly to manage a bar that Morgan
    intended to open with the insurance proceeds.
    After failing to recruit a kickboxer named Marc Costello,
    Reilly turned to another Vose Street resident, Calvin Boyd,
    1
    See, e.g., John H. Blume, AEDPA: The “Hype” and the “Bite,”
    9 CORNELL L. REV. 259 (2006); Lee Kovarsky, AEDPA’s Wrecks: Comity,
    Finality, and Federalism, 82 TUL. L. REV. 443 (2007); Judith L. Ritter,
    The Voice of Reason—Why Recent Judicial Interpretations of the
    Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act’s Restrictions on Habeas
    Corpus are Wrong, 37 SEATTLE U. L. REV. 55 (2013).
    2
    The factual and procedural summary is taken from the district court’s
    order. The district court relied on the Supreme Court of California. In re
    James Edward Hardy, 
    41 Cal. 4th 977
    , 983–87 (2007) (Hardy II).
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                        21
    and Boyd’s friend Marcus. According to Boyd’s trial
    testimony, Boyd eventually declined to participate in the
    murders because Reilly was unable to pay him with either
    money or cocaine in advance. According to the State, Reilly
    then tried to recruit Hardy, telling two friends that Hardy
    might assist him in the crime.
    In May 1981, Morgan moved to Carson City, Nevada,
    ostensibly for business reasons but likely to establish an alibi.
    During the night of May 20 or morning of May 21, two
    people, allegedly Hardy and Reilly, used bolt cutters and a
    key to enter the Morgan residence. Nancy Morgan and her
    son were sleeping in a back bedroom. Both were stabbed to
    death. Experts testified that physical evidence suggested at
    least two persons were responsible for the slayings, which
    likely occurred between 3:30 and 5:30 a.m.
    Michael Mitchell, Reilly’s roommate, testified that he
    returned to the Vose Street apartments and went to sleep
    sometime after 11:00 p.m on May 20, 1981. Around
    midnight, he awoke and saw Hardy, Reilly, Colette Mitchell
    (no relation to Michael Mitchell), and Steven Rice (another
    neighbor) in the apartment that he shared with Reilly. Later,
    he heard male voices and heard the shower being used. The
    next morning, he observed wet towels in the bathroom, but he
    saw no evidence of blood.
    Shortly after the murders, Reilly admitted his guilt to his
    then-girlfriend Debbie Sportsman and made incriminating
    statements to her. He told Sportsman that Nancy Morgan said
    “[p]lease don’t kill me,” that more than one perpetrator was
    involved, that bolt cutters had been used to cut the chain lock
    on the door, and that a fish knife had been used in the
    stabbings.
    22                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    Morgan’s recent purchase of an unusually large amount
    of life insurance raised suspicions, as did two incriminating
    statements he made to a neighbor—that his wife was worth
    more dead than alive, and that he expected she would die
    before him. Sportsman’s testimony linked Reilly to Morgan
    and human blood was found on Reilly’s shoes. No physical
    evidence was found that linked Hardy to the murders. The
    evidence against Hardy consisted largely of the testimony of
    Calvin Boyd and Colette Mitchell.
    Calvin Boyd was the State’s key witness. He testified that
    shortly after the murders, Reilly admitted that he and Hardy
    were the killers. Boyd stated Reilly had showed him recently
    purchased bolt cutters. Boyd claimed he walked through
    Rice’s apartment the morning of the murders and saw Reilly
    and Hardy both sleeping—placing the two men together
    shortly after the crime. Boyd also saw Rice and Colette
    Mitchell (hereinafter “Mitchell”) in the apartment.
    Mitchell was Hardy’s girlfriend at the time of the murders
    but not at the time of trial. She gave testimony indirectly
    linking Hardy to the crime. Her initial statements to law
    enforcement provided Hardy with an alibi, but she changed
    her story and admitted to perjury. Mitchell contacted Hardy
    in jail intending to assist him even after she was granted
    immunity for her testimony. At trial, Mitchell testified she
    was working at a restaurant on the night of the murders.
    Hardy, Reilly, and Rice met at the restaurant shortly after
    9:00 p.m. and Mitchell served them drinks. They went to the
    Vose Street apartments around 10:00 p.m. to “party” and use
    cocaine. Mitchell admitted to doing several large lines of
    cocaine and drinking at least three beers via a “beer bong.”
    Mitchell testified to quarreling with Hardy and leaving
    Reilly’s apartment to go next door. Sometime between
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                         23
    midnight and 2:00 a.m., Rice and Mitchell left the apartments
    to purchase more beer. After returning, Hardy sought her out
    at Rice’s apartment and told her not to leave because he
    needed her that night. Despite having an unusually large
    amount of cocaine—which often would keep her awake—she
    passed out in Rice’s apartment and did not wake until 11:00
    a.m. the next day. When she awoke, Hardy was asleep next to
    her and Reilly was asleep on a sofa.
    Mitchell initially told police she had been with Hardy the
    entire night. At trial, she claimed she was either asleep or
    passed out for most of the night and did not know if Hardy
    left the apartment or not. Mitchell claimed Reilly once told
    her that he and Hardy had left the apartment while she slept
    but that another time Reilly told her they had not left.
    Mitchell testified she and Hardy discussed his alibi “all the
    time.” Mitchell stated Hardy led her to believe he was going
    to steal something from someone to enable a third person to
    collect on an insurance policy. Hardy supposedly told her at
    least twice that he had been to the victims’ home on the night
    of the murders. Hardy claimed he knew the victims were
    alive when he was there because he heard them snoring. On
    another occasion, Hardy told Mitchell the victims had already
    been killed by the time he entered the home. Mitchell testified
    that Hardy said “we were at the house,” but she also stated
    that he told her “he didn’t do it.” Mitchell testified that Reilly
    admitted to her that he knew who the killer was and it was not
    Hardy.
    Mitchell claimed Hardy said a chain on a door would be
    cut to give the crime the appearance of a robbery. According
    to Mitchell, Hardy was to receive a portion of $40,000 or
    $50,000, but he actually only received $1,000. Mitchell
    testified she, or someone else, put the $1,000 in a cedar box.
    24                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    Mitchell said Hardy made several other statements: Morgan
    was not worried about the trial because during the delay his
    insurance proceeds were earning interest; the less she knew
    about the crime the better off she would be; Reilly was in
    charge of the situation; Hardy knew for a fact only one person
    committed the murders; Hardy took something from
    Morgan’s home to make it look like a robbery; and the killers
    used bolt cutters. According to Mitchell’s testimony, Hardy
    asked her and Hardy’s brother to retrieve and dispose of an
    M1 carbine from Hardy’s apartment; a firearm of the same
    style was reported missing from the crime scene. Mitchell
    also testified that Hardy asked her to destroy some of his
    shoes after he learned police found a shoeprint at the scene.
    At trial, Hardy’s attorney, Michael Demby, gave no
    opening statement and presented no evidence on Hardy’s
    behalf. The jury was instructed that individuals who directly
    and actively committed the act constituting the crime, those
    who aided or abetted the commission of the crime, and those
    who advised and encouraged its commission were equally
    guilty. An additional aid-and-abet instruction was also given.
    Hardy, Reilly, and Morgan were convicted of two counts
    of first degree murder and one count of conspiracy to commit
    murder to collect life insurance proceeds. Six special
    circumstances were found by the jury. The defendants were
    not convicted on a burglary charge. A joint penalty phase was
    held for Hardy and Reilly—both were sentenced to death.
    Morgan died of cancer before he could be sentenced.
    On appeal, the California Supreme Court vacated one of
    the special circumstances but affirmed the judgment in all
    other respects. The United States Supreme Court denied a
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                               25
    petition for writ of certiorari. Hardy v. California, 
    506 U.S. 987
    (1992).
    On July 26, 1991, Hardy filed a petition for writ of habeas
    corpus in the California Supreme Court. That court issued an
    order to show cause why Hardy was not entitled to penalty
    phase relief because his trial counsel failed to call available
    mitigation witnesses. On April 28, 1993, the California
    Supreme Court ordered the Los Angeles County Superior
    Court to hold a reference hearing and make findings of fact.
    The superior court judge heard evidence over several
    months in 1996 and 1997, where a very different story than
    the one presented at trial emerged. According to a number of
    credible witnesses, Boyd made very incriminating statements
    after the murders, Boyd’s alibi for the night of the murders
    was a sham, and Hardy had refused to participate in the
    crimes.3 On September 16, 1999, the superior court entered
    findings of fact and conclusions finding Demby performed
    deficiently when he failed to investigate and present evidence
    that (a) Calvin Boyd, a key prosecution witness, was the
    actual killer, and (b) the murders occurred at a time when
    Hardy could not have been present.
    On May 3, 2000, Hardy filed his Supplemental Allegation
    to Conform the Pleadings to the Proof, arguing that evidence
    from the reference hearing also required guilt phase relief.
    3
    Specifically, the superior court judge found Boyd had admitted his
    guilt telling a friend “yes, man, I went in to do the lady in and Marcus and
    I were stumbling through the house, and I went through one room, I
    tripped upon the kid and grabbed a pillow and put it over his face and
    stabbed him.” The California Supreme Court explicitly adopted this
    finding.
    26                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    The California Supreme Court issued an order directing the
    State to show cause why Hardy was not entitled to reversal of
    his conviction “because he is innocent of the capital crimes of
    which he was convicted, because a third party named Calvin
    Boyd committed the murders, and because [Hardy’s] trial
    counsel rendered constitutionally ineffective assistance of
    counsel by failing to present evidence demonstrating
    [Hardy’s] innocence.” Both of Hardy’s state habeas petitions
    were consolidated for argument and opinion.
    On July 26, 2007, the California Supreme Court decided
    the consolidated petitions. Although that court recognized
    that the disturbing revelations about Boyd “presented a more
    difficult decision for the jury and may well have created in
    the minds of the jurors a reasonable doubt as to petitioner’s
    guilt,” it found Hardy could not meet the very difficult burden
    of an actual innocence claim. Hardy II, 41 Cal 4th at
    1017–18. As to ineffective assistance of counsel, the
    California Supreme Court granted Hardy’s claim that
    Demby’s performance was deficient at both the penalty and
    guilt phases of the trial. The court reversed Hardy’s death
    sentence but found Demby’s inadequate representation at the
    guilt phase did not prejudice Hardy because there was
    “substantial evidence” to convict him under an aid-and-abet
    or conspiracy theory. 
    Id. at 1029–30
    (“We conclude
    substantial evidence supports the theory that petitioner was
    guilty of first degree murder on a conspiracy theory.”). The
    court also rejected Hardy’s actual innocence claim.
    The California Supreme Court order specifically adopted
    several factual findings from the reference hearing, including:
    (1) Raynell Burney, Rickey Ginsburg, James Moss, Sandra
    Moss, Michael Small, and Steven Rice testified credibly
    regarding various incriminating statements and actions made
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                        27
    by Boyd; (2) Boyd was not a credible witness; (3) Boyd
    habitually carried a knife similar to the murder weapon;
    (4) Boyd had previously committed several assaults with a
    knife; (5) Boyd had cuts on his hands after the killings;
    (6) Boyd’s alibi was false; (7) Boyd had motive to commit
    murder; (8) Boyd testified falsely when he stated at trial that
    the prosecutor had not promised him anything in connection
    with his testimony when he was actually granted immunity;
    and (9) Boyd likely had a role in the murders, very possibly
    a primary one.
    After the State chose not to retry the penalty phase, Hardy
    was resentenced to consecutive terms of life in prison without
    the possibility of parole. He was resentenced to twenty-five
    years to life on the conspiracy charge.
    On September 6, 2011, Hardy timely filed a pro se
    petition for writ of habeas corpus in the United States District
    Court for the Central District of California. A magistrate
    judge ordered responsive briefing but denied Hardy’s request
    for appointment of counsel. On May 7, 2013, the magistrate
    issued a report and recommendation denying all claims. On
    June 24, 2013, the district court accepted the report and
    entered judgment denying the petition. The district court
    issued a certificate of appealability as to “[w]hether the state
    supreme court reasonably concluded that Hardy was not
    prejudiced as a result of his counsel’s failure to uncover and
    expose the fact that a key government witness, Calvin Boyd,
    was probably the person who committed the murders.” This
    appeal was timely filed.
    28                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    Standards of Review
    A district court’s decision to grant or deny a habeas
    corpus petition under 28 U.S.C. § 2254 is reviewed de novo.
    Brown v. Ornoski, 
    503 F.3d 1006
    , 1010 (9th Cir. 2007);
    Shumway v. Payne, 
    223 F.3d 982
    , 984 (9th Cir. 2000). Facts
    found by the district court are reviewed for clear error. Tapia
    v. Roe, 
    189 F.3d 1052
    , 1055 (9th Cir. 1999).
    AEDPA applies because the petition was filed after the
    passage of that law. Jeffries v. Wood, 
    103 F.3d 827
    , 827 (9th
    Cir. 1996). Under AEDPA, relief may only be granted if the
    state court decision in question was either “contrary to, or
    involved an unreasonable application of, clearly established
    Federal law” or was “based on an unreasonable determination
    of the facts in light of the evidence presented in the State
    court proceeding.” § 2254(d)(1)–(2).
    Analysis
    The question now is whether the California Supreme
    Court decision was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
    application of, clearly established federal law. The answer is
    yes; the California Supreme Court decision was contrary to
    established federal law. Alternatively, we also conclude that
    the California Supreme Court decision was an unreasonable
    application of clearly established federal law.
    I.
    The “clearly established federal law” for an ineffective
    assistance of counsel claim under the Sixth Amendment
    derives from Strickland v. Washington. 
    466 U.S. 668
    (1984);
    see Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. 170
    , 189 (2011) (“There is
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                               29
    no dispute” that Strickland is clearly established federal law).
    Strickland established a two-part test: the defendant must
    show (1) counsel’s performance was deficient, and (2) the
    deficient performance prejudiced the defense. 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 687
    .
    The first prong of Strickland is not contested here. The
    California Supreme Court concluded that Demby rendered
    deficient performance by failing to investigate and present
    evidence that Boyd was likely the actual killer.4 Because
    neither party questions this conclusion, this Court need only
    review the findings under the second prong of Strickland,
    which the parties contest.
    Under § 2254(d)(1), “contrary to” means “substantially
    different from the relevant precedent” of the Supreme Court.
    Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 405 (2000). As an example,
    the Supreme Court explained that if a state court denied an
    ineffective assistance of counsel claim for failure to show
    prejudice by a preponderance of the evidence standard rather
    than by a reasonable probability of a different result standard,
    the state court’s ruling would be “contrary to” the clearly
    established federal law in Strickland because the state court
    would be applying a stricter standard. 
    Id. 405–06. This
    case
    presents a nearly identical set of circumstances.
    4
    The State, with its more abundant resources, should also have
    discovered Boyd’s role in the crime. Instead, the State concealed the
    existence of an immunity agreement with Boyd granted Boyd immunity
    and used him as its key witness against Hardy. The prosecutor’s conduct
    in this case raises substantial concerns regarding the reliability of Hardy’s
    conviction even apart from the Demby’s inadequate representation.
    30                     HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    The California Supreme Court held that Hardy did not
    demonstrate the level of prejudice required under Strickland.
    The court concluded that even without Boyd’s testimony, and
    even if Demby had proven to the jury that Boyd was the
    actual murderer, substantial evidence remained to permit a
    jury to find Hardy guilty of murder under an aid-and-abet or
    conspirator theory.
    Although the California Supreme Court recited the
    Strickland standard, it concluded that because there was
    “substantial evidence” against Hardy he suffered no prejudice
    from Demby’s deficient performance. This was not the
    correct standard, and consequently, the relevant question
    regarding prejudice at the guilt phase was never properly
    addressed.
    Substantial evidence is “such relevant evidence as a
    reasonable mind might accept as adequate to support a
    conclusion.”5 Richardson v. Perales, 
    402 U.S. 389
    , 401
    (1971) (quoting Consol. Edison Co. v. NLRB, 
    305 U.S. 197
    ,
    229 (1938)). By applying this standard, the state court created
    a much higher bar for Hardy than the law required. Under
    Strickland, the court must ask “whether there is a reasonable
    probability that, absent the errors [by counsel], the factfinder
    would have had a reasonable doubt respecting 
    guilt.” 466 U.S. at 695
    . A reasonable probability is “sufficient to
    undermine confidence in the outcome” and must be
    5
    Substantial evidence is also the standard California courts use in
    reviewing factual and credibility determinations made by a referee during
    a reference hearing. In re Cox, 
    30 Cal. 4th 974
    , 998 (2003). Here, the
    California Supreme Court properly applied the standard in that portion of
    its opinion concerning the reference hearing. Whether counsel’s deficient
    performance prejudiced Hardy, however, is not subject to the substantial
    evidence standard and is independently reviewed.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                        31
    substantial, not just conceivable. 
    Id. at 693–94.
    This standard
    does not mean a petitioner must demonstrate “that counsel’s
    actions more likely than not altered the outcome.” Harrington
    v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 112 (2011) (citing 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 693
    ) (internal quotation marks omitted).
    Requiring a habeas petitioner to demonstrate that had counsel
    performed adequately there would not have been sufficient
    evidence for a jury to convict is more akin to a Fed. R. Crim.
    P. 29 motion for a judgment of acquittal and has no place in
    the Strickland test. To the extent that the California Supreme
    Court found the Strickland prejudice prong was not met
    because substantial evidence remained to convict Hardy
    under a different theory, it applied a standard contrary to
    clearly established federal law.
    This case differs substantially from Mann v. Ryan. No.
    09-99017, — F.3d — , 
    2016 WL 3854234
    (9th Cir. July 15,
    2016) (en banc). In Mann, this Court found that the state
    court’s opinion was ambiguous as to whether it was
    employing the proper Strickland standard. 
    Id. at *11.
    The
    most logical inference in Mann, however, was that the state
    court judge—who was also the original sentencing
    judge—applied the proper standard but recited the standard
    incorrectly. Hardy’s case presents the inverse. Here, the state
    court correctly recited the Strickland standard but then, in its
    application, abandoned it—replacing it with a substantial
    evidence standard. As the Supreme Court has made clear, it
    is the application, not the recitation of a standard that matters
    for § 2254(d) purposes. See Sears v. Upton, 
    561 U.S. 945
    ,
    952 (2010) (per curiam) (“Although the Court appears to
    have stated the proper [Strickland] prejudice standard, it did
    not correctly conceptualize how that standard applies to the
    circumstances of this case.”) (footnote omitted). It is apparent
    on the surface of the California Supreme Court’s decision that
    32                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    it applied an incorrect standard and no inferences need be, nor
    can be drawn, that could result in finding the state court
    applied the proper standard. See Mann, 
    2016 WL 3854234
    at
    *11.
    Hardy’s petition satisfies the “contrary to” clause of
    § 2254(d)(1) because the California Supreme Court employed
    a standard of review which was significantly harsher than the
    clearly established test from Strickland. 
    Id. (“Had the
    state
    post-conviction court applied [a stricter standard] to analyze
    [Petitioner’s] ineffective assistance of counsel claims, its
    opinion would have been contrary to clearly established
    federal law under AEDPA.”). Because the state court used the
    wrong standard, we need not defer to that decision. See
    Panetti v. Quarterman, 
    551 U.S. 930
    , 948 (2007) (explaining
    that when § 2254(d)(1) is satisfied, a court may review a
    petition “unencumbered by the deference AEDPA normally
    requires”). In other words, this Court may analyze Hardy’s
    constitutional claim de novo pursuant to § 2254(a). Frantz v.
    Hazey, 
    533 F.3d 724
    , 735–37 (9th Cir. 2008) (explaining the
    two step process under AEDPA).
    II.
    Under de novo review, Hardy was clearly prejudiced in
    the guilt phase by Demby’s deficient performance. Had
    Demby properly investigated and presented evidence that
    Boyd—the state’s key witness—actually committed the
    murders, there is a substantial probability the jury would have
    come to a different conclusion. Hardy is entitled to habeas
    relief because the California Supreme Court applied a
    standard contrary to clearly established law and because his
    attorney’s deficient performance was prejudicial at the guilt
    phase.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                      33
    At trial, the State’s theory of the case centered on the
    existence of an “elaborate scheme or plan or design by Mr.
    Morgan[,] coupled with Mr. Reilly as the middleman[, which]
    culminated in the hiring of Mr. Hardy or the agreement by
    Mr. Hardy to go with Mr. Reilly to do the killing.” That is,
    Morgan hired Reilly to kill his family, Reilly then recruited
    Hardy, and the two entered Morgan’s home where Hardy
    killed Morgan’s wife and son. The State argued that Boyd
    and his friend Marcus had originally been enlisted to
    burglarize the Morgan residence but had ultimately
    withdrawn from the scheme.
    According to the California Supreme Court, Boyd
    provided “two critical pieces of evidence” at trial: (1) Boyd
    testified that Reilly told Boyd that Hardy was the killer, and
    (2) Boyd saw Hardy and Reilly together just a few hours after
    the murder at Rice’s apartment.
    Most of the other evidence presented against Hardy at
    trial came from Mitchell. Sportsman also testified that Hardy
    and Reilly spent a lot of time drinking and doing drugs
    together during the weeks surrounding the murders.
    We note that the California Supreme Court actually did
    address the prejudicial effect of Demby’s performance but
    only in relation to Hardy’s actual innocence claim—not as to
    his ineffective assistance claim. The California Supreme
    Court found the weight and breadth of the evidence regarding
    Boyd’s likely participation in the murder “would have
    presented a more difficult decision for the jury and may well
    have created in the minds of the jurors a reasonable doubt as
    to [Hardy’s] guilt.” The evidence regarding Boyd’s likely
    participation—which included evidence Boyd made
    incriminating statements before and after the murder, had a
    34                    HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    false alibi, carried a knife similar to the murder weapon, and
    had previously committed assaults—is precisely the same
    evidence that Hardy argues Demby should have investigated
    and presented at trial. The fact that the California Supreme
    Court acknowledged, in relation to Hardy’s innocence claim,
    how such evidence would have created a reasonable doubt as
    to Hardy’s guilt is equally applicable to Hardy’s ineffective
    assistance of counsel claim.
    Nonetheless, the California Supreme Court held Hardy
    was not entitled to relief on the ineffective assistance of
    counsel claim because substantial evidence supported a
    theory Hardy was guilty of first degree murder on a
    conspiracy theory and on an aid-and-abet theory. Because
    Hardy was found guilty on a conspiracy charge, and because
    an aid-and-abet jury instruction was given along with the
    murder charge, the California Supreme Court concluded no
    prejudice occurred. Under de novo review, the California
    Supreme Court clearly erred.
    First, as noted, the State’s entire theory of the case hinged
    on Hardy being the actual killer. Under no reasonable reading
    of the record could it be concluded the jury actually found
    Hardy guilty under an aid-or-abet theory. When the
    prosecutor addressed the aid-and-abet theory in his closing
    argument, he described only Morgan’s and Reilly’s
    involvement—not Hardy’s. Although the jury instruction
    regarding the murder charge included an aid-and-abet
    instruction and the jury found Hardy guilty of the murder
    charge, an aid-and-abet theory is wholly distinct6 from an
    6
    We do not suggest that a prosecutor can never present factually
    inconsistent theories. Rather, we emphasize that here the prosecutor
    presented just one theory to the jury: Hardy was the actual killer.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                               35
    actual killer theory and the jury could not simultaneously
    have found both true.7 Had Demby presented evidence that
    Boyd was the killer it would have completely undermined the
    prosecution’s theory of the case. As a result, there is a
    significant likelihood the jury would not have found that
    Hardy was guilty of murder beyond a reasonable doubt.
    Further, the California Supreme Court found that
    “[e]vidence of Boyd’s incriminating admissions, coupled
    with other evidence, could have convinced a reasonable jury
    to entertain some doubt as to the extent of [Hardy’s]
    participation in the murders.” The California Supreme Court
    also stated that had Boyd’s participation been revealed at trial
    it would have “throw[n] some doubt on the scope of
    [Hardy’s] role—said by the prosecutor at trial to be a primary
    one—in the crimes.” These statements indicate the state court
    believed a jury would have seriously questioned what role, if
    any, Hardy had in the murders, including under an aid-and-
    7
    In Taylor v. Beard, this court rejected a petitioner’s argument that
    because the jury found him guilty of being the actual shooter, it could not
    find him guilty of aiding and abetting. 
    811 F.3d 326
    , 327 (9th Cir. 2016)
    (en banc) (petition for cert. filed). Hardy’s case is distinguishable from
    Taylor because Taylor was making a “freestanding innocence” claim and
    the additional evidence he presented tended to inculpate him further. 
    Id. at 333–34.
    Hardy’s Strickland claim, however, has a much more yielding
    standard. Additionally, Taylor was tried alone, a jury agreed on every
    element of the crime that Taylor essentially admitted to committing, and
    his jury did not need to agree unanimously on the theory presented. 
    Id. at 332
    (citing Schad v. Arizona, 
    501 U.S. 624
    , 631–32 (1991)). In contrast,
    Hardy was tried with two other co-defendants who were alleged to be the
    aiders-and-abettors and Hardy was tried as the actual killer. Because of the
    critical differences in the standards that apply to an actual innocence claim
    versus the Strickland claim in this case and the dissimilar trial procedures
    used in these two cases, Taylor does not control this case.
    36                      HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    abet theory, had Demby not performed deficiently as Hardy’s
    attorney.
    Second, although Hardy was found guilty by the jury of
    conspiracy to commit murder for insurance proceeds, his
    conviction rested on being the actual killer. The California
    Supreme Court found the jury relied—at least in part—on a
    conspiracy theory in convicting Hardy and that sufficient
    evidence supported the theory. This theory fails for the same
    reasons the aid-and-abet theory fails. The prosecution argued
    Hardy was a member of the conspiracy because he agreed to,
    and actually did, commit the murders.8 Any remaining
    evidence linking Hardy to other minor acts involved in the
    conspiracy does little to rebut that the prosecution’s theory at
    trial would have been eviscerated had Demby not been
    deficient.
    Additionally, there was at least some evidence adopted by
    the California Supreme Court that, even if Hardy was
    involved in the conspiracy at one point, he may have
    withdrawn from the conspiracy before the commission of the
    crimes. Hardy may have backed out before the crime was
    committed because, according to Boyd, Hardy was too
    “chicken shit to go along.” Whether this withdrawal would
    have occurred before any overt acts were taken—and
    therefore been effective—is unclear but it is additional
    evidence adopted by the state court that would cause a jury to
    view the conspiracy charge differently. Again, whether the
    jury could have or even likely would have convicted Hardy
    8
    In his opening statement, the prosecutor stated that “there is no doubt
    in anyone’s mind or ought to be that Mr. Hardy had the knife in his hand
    and plunged that knife into the bodies of those two people in excess of 65
    times.”
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                      37
    under this theory of conspiracy is irrelevant; what matters is
    the substantial likelihood the jury may not have convicted
    Hardy had Demby investigated and presented evidence about
    Boyd’s participation in the crime.
    Third, even if the aid-or-abet and conspiracy theories of
    guilt could supplant what the jury found at trial—that Hardy
    was the actual killer—it is reasonably likely the jury would
    have had a reasonable doubt under those theories based on the
    evidence that should have been presented at trial. The
    California Supreme Court’s contrary conclusion was incorrect
    and is unsupported by the record. According to the state
    court, the substantial evidence that remained to convict Hardy
    under derivative theories consists almost entirely of
    Mitchell’s testimony and a few circumstantial statements
    made by Sportsman.
    In support of its finding, the California Supreme Court
    cites Sportsman’s testimony linking Reilly to the murders.
    Sportsman testified that the day after the murders she saw
    Reilly and Hardy laughing and drinking. Sportsman also
    testified that Reilly encouraged her to speak to Hardy and
    Mitchell to coordinate alibis. According to Sportsman, Hardy
    and Reilly started drinking and doing drugs together ten days
    before the murders.
    Beyond Sportsman’s testimony, the California Supreme
    Court relied solely on Mitchell to provide the “substantial
    evidence” that Hardy is guilty under a derivative theory.
    Mitchell testified that Hardy discussed his alibi frequently
    and that Hardy knew several details about the crimes. Most
    incriminatingly—according to the California Supreme
    Court—was that Hardy possessed $1,000 in $100 bills after
    the murders and that he instructed Mitchell to dispose of his
    38                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    shoes and an M1 carbine. The state court, however,
    recognized the weakness of Mitchell’s testimony—
    discounting most of it point-by-point. The court noted
    Mitchell “did not know where the money came from, could
    not remember who informed her of the money’s origin, and
    could not remember the first time she saw the money.” The
    California Supreme Court added “[t]he persuasive power of
    [Mitchell’s] testimony was further undermined by the fact she
    was subject to impeachment due to her drug and alcohol use
    and that she admitted lying for [Hardy] at his preliminary
    hearing.”
    The California Supreme Court found that Sportsman’s
    and Mitchell’s testimony could support a finding that Hardy
    was guilty under a derivative theory assuming the jury found
    the testimony credible and persuasive. As previously
    explained, however, this is not the correct standard. The
    question is whether, if Demby had not performed deficiently,
    it is reasonably likely the jury would have reached a different
    outcome. Although the federal district court concluded that
    the jury specifically found Mitchell credible and relied on her
    testimony, this conclusion was purely speculative and not
    supported by the record. See 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 695
    (“[E]vidence about the actual process of decision, if not part
    of the record of the proceeding under review . . . should not
    be considered in the prejudice determination.”). At least one
    juror stated that the jury specifically discussed Mitchell’s
    testimony and determined she was not credible. Further,
    Mitchell’s testimony would have been discounted by the jury
    had Demby presented evidence that Boyd’s testimony, which
    corroborated much of Mitchell’s testimony, was false.
    The California Supreme Court described Boyd’s crucial
    role in Hardy’s trial calling it “extremely damaging to
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                      39
    [Hardy’s] case” and stating that he provided evidence “on
    which the prosecution relied to convict [Hardy].” Removing
    Boyd’s extremely damaging testimony and its corroborating
    effect on Mitchell’s testimony would have significantly
    changed the case as presented to the jury. Despite some
    evidence remaining that Hardy may have somehow been
    involved in the murders under a derivative theory, had
    Demby not performed deficiently, there is a substantial
    likelihood the jury would have had a reasonable doubt
    concerning Hardy’s guilt.
    Last, Strickland’s prejudice prong requires analyzing the
    evidence that would have been presented had counsel not
    performed deficiently. Bonin v. Calderon, 
    59 F.3d 815
    , 834
    (9th Cir. 1995). Strickland held:
    a court hearing an ineffectiveness claim must
    consider the totality of the evidence before the
    . . . jury. Some of the factual findings will
    have been unaffected by the errors, and
    factual findings that were affected will have
    been affected in different ways. Some errors
    will have had a pervasive effect on the
    inferences to be drawn from the evidence,
    altering the entire evidentiary picture, and
    some will have had an isolated, trivial effect.
    Moreover, a verdict or conclusion only
    weakly supported by the record is more likely
    to have been affected by the errors than one
    with overwhelming record support. Taking the
    unaffected findings as a given, and taking due
    account of the effect of the errors on the
    remaining findings, a court making the
    prejudice inquiry must ask if the defendant
    40                      HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    has met the burden of showing that the
    decision reached would reasonably likely
    have been different absent the 
    errors. 466 U.S. at 695
    –96. Strickland does not permit the court to
    reimagine the entire trial. We must leave undisturbed the
    prosecution’s case. We only envision what Demby should
    have presented in Hardy’s defense and determine how that
    would have altered the trial. In doing so, we may not invent
    arguments the prosecution could have made if it had known
    its theory of the case would be disproved.
    Here, this means the State would have called Boyd to the
    stand to testify that Hardy was the actual killer. Then Demby
    would have cross-examined Boyd, revealing compelling
    evidence that Boyd, not Hardy, was the actual killer. Though
    we might assume the State would attempt to rehabilitate Boyd
    as a witness, we cannot simply presume it would have been
    successful in doing so. Nor can we presume the State would
    have altered the entire theory of its case in response or been
    successful doing so. If the State had changed horses
    midstream, that alone would have created a substantial
    probability the jury would come to a different result.
    Demby’s failure to investigate Boyd’s role in this case altered
    the entire evidentiary picture. Viewing the trial in this
    manner, the California Supreme Court and the federal district
    court erred in finding there was no reasonable probability that
    the outcome would have been different but-for the deficient
    performance of counsel under any theory of conviction.9
    9
    The Strickland test is clear, and it is not a sufficiency of the evidence
    standard nor is it a substantial evidence standard. The dissent incorrectly
    suggests otherwise and fails to address or analyze how the decifient
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                          41
    This is not a case where counsel’s deficient performance
    had no bearing on the outcome due to otherwise strong or
    overwhelming evidence of guilt. See, e.g.,United States v.
    O’Neal, 
    937 F.2d 1369
    , 1376 (9th Cir. 1990) (no prejudice
    where there was strong evidence of guilt), abrogated on other
    grounds by United States v. Garcia-Cruz, 
    40 F.3d 986
    , 989
    (1994); United States v. Harden, 
    846 F.2d 1229
    , 1232 (9th
    Cir. 1988) (no prejudice where there was overwhelming
    evidence of guilt). Instead, the verdict was only weakly
    supported by the evidence. No witness except Boyd placed
    Hardy at the scene of the crime, no witness reported seeing
    Hardy leaving the apartment complex the night of the crime,
    and no blood, fingerprint, footprint, hair, or other forensic
    evidence linked Hardy to the crime. No murder weapon was
    found and no evidence was presented that linked Hardy to
    any knife similar to the one used by the killers. Indeed, no
    physical evidence whatsoever linked Hardy to the crime.
    Hardy was convicted of being the actual killer primarily on
    the strength of Boyd’s now discredited testimony. It cannot
    be reasonably argued that strong or overwhelming evidence
    of guilt under any theory exists without Boyd’s testimony.
    Thus, there is a substantial likelihood that the jury would not
    have convicted Hardy had Demby performed effectively.
    III.
    Even though the California Supreme Court recited the
    proper Strickland prejudice standard, it failed to apply the
    proper standard, and thus the decision is not protected from
    review for 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d) purposes. See 
    Sears, 561 U.S. at 952
    (2010). Assuming, however, that the California
    performance by attorney Demby fundamentally prejudiced Hardy on all
    theories of criminal liability.
    42                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    Supreme Court did correctly conceptualize and apply the
    Strickland prejudice standard but simply camouflaged that
    understanding with a different—and incorrect—phrasing of
    the legal standard, we still conclude that its application was
    unreasonable.
    Prior to the passage of AEDPA, federal courts reviewed
    state court convictions for habeas consideration using a
    standard akin to de novo review. See Brown v. Allen,
    
    344 U.S. 443
    , 500–03 (1953). AEDPA revised the standard
    of review limiting a federal court’s review of state court
    decisions which are “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
    application of, clearly established Federal law.” § 2254(d).
    Three distinct terminologies have emerged to describe the
    “unreasonable application” portion of § 2254(d). The
    Supreme Court has described this standard as objective
    unreasonableness, double deference, and the fairminded jurist
    test. Although this may appear as simply a “matter of
    phrasing,” its discussion is necessary because “phrasing
    mirrors thought, and it is important that the phrasing not
    obscure the true issue” before the Court. Wright v. West,
    
    505 U.S. 277
    , 304–05 (1992) (O’Connor, J., concurring)
    (quoting 
    Brown, 344 U.S. at 501
    ). Regardless of which
    conception of “unreasonable application” is applied, the result
    is the same in this case—the California Supreme Court
    applied the Strickland prejudice test in an unreasonable
    fashion.
    In Williams, the Supreme Court explained that
    “unreasonable” is a common term in the legal world and is to
    be measured objectively in the AEDPA context. 
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 409
    –10. Although the term “unreasonable” may
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                              43
    be difficult to define in some scenarios, we know it means
    more than being merely erroneous or incorrect. 
    Id. at 410–11.
    Later, in explaining how § 2254(d) interacts with the
    Strickland test, the Supreme Court introduced the concept of
    “double deference.” Double deference refers to the layering
    of the reasonableness test from § 2254(d) on top of another
    reasonableness test, such as the deficiency prong of
    Strickland’s two part standard. Because only the prejudice
    prong is at issue here, double deference does not apply.10
    More recently, the Supreme Court expressed the AEDPA
    standard slightly differently. In Harrington v. Richter, the
    Court phrased the application of Strickland under
    § 2254(d)(1) as “whether it is possible fairminded jurists
    could disagree” that theories or arguments the state court
    could have relied on were inconsistent with a prior Supreme
    Court decision. 
    562 U.S. 86
    ,101–02 (2011). This “fairminded
    10
    Double deference applies when a federal court is reviewing a state
    court’s application of a general rule. Knowles v. Mirzayance, 
    556 U.S. 111
    (2009) (citing Yarborough v. Alvarado, 
    541 U.S. 652
    , 664 (2004)). The
    more specific a legal rule is, the more narrow a range of reasonable
    application exists for that rule. 
    Yarborough, 541 U.S. at 664
    . Strickland’s
    deficiency prong presents a general rule because “[j]udicial scrutiny of
    counsel’s performance must be highly deferential” and there is “a strong
    presumption that counsel’s conduct falls within the wide range of
    reasonable professional 
    assistance.” 466 U.S. at 687
    –88. Because “[t]here
    are countless ways to provide effective assistance in any given case,”
    courts must be hesitant in performing a post-hoc review of trial counsel’s
    strategic choices. 
    Id. at 689.
    Thus, the federal court asks whether it was
    reasonable for the state court to find whether trial counsel’s performance
    fell within the range of reasonable professional assistance. Because the
    prejudice prong of Strickland presents only a more specific legal rule, a
    case considering only that prong is not subject to double deference as
    described in Mirzayance.
    44                     HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    jurist” phrasing has oft been repeated since Richter in the
    AEDPA/Strickland context. See, e.g., Davis v. Ayala, 135 S.
    Ct. 2187, 2199 (2015); 
    Pinholster, 563 U.S. at 188
    ; Andrews
    v. Davis, 
    798 F.3d 759
    , 774 (9th Cir. 2015).
    In Williams, the Supreme Court explained that the
    “reasonable jurist” standard is an objective standard and is
    not the proper standard for determining what amounts to an
    “unreasonable application” under § 
    2254(d)(1). 529 U.S. at 409
    (“The placement of this additional overlay on the
    ‘unreasonable application’ clause was erroneous.”). Because
    Richter cited Williams approvingly, and because no Supreme
    Court decision has overruled Williams, it is clear that the
    “fairminded jurist” language in Richter is just an alternative
    way to describe the objective unreasonableness standard
    elucidated in Williams and not a new subjective standard.11
    Applying an objective fairminded jurist standard does not
    mean that because any state judge found otherwise, the
    federal court is obliged to turn away a petitioner. Cf. Wright
    v. West, 
    505 U.S. 277
    , 304 (1992) (O’Connor, J., concurring).
    Indeed, to do so would wholly negate § 2254 and function as
    a suspension of the writ of habeas corpus for state prisoners.
    It would mean that even were a state prisoner granted a writ
    by a state trial court, the government could appeal all
    throughout the state process and lose each step of the way but
    so long as one jurist on either the state appellate court or state
    supreme court dissented, any federal petition would be
    11
    The dissent clings to a subjective interpretation of the Supreme
    Court’s “fairminded jurist” language, insisting § 2254(d) cannot be met
    because the California Supreme Court and the federal district court came
    to a different conclusion. Under this interpretation, there would be no
    reason for a federal appellate court to ever hear § 2254(d) appeals.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                        45
    doomed to failure. Courts are to read laws in order to give
    them meaning, not to render them fully impotent. See
    
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 404
    .
    Under any reading of § 2254(d), we conclude that Hardy
    is entitled to relief. We must determine whether the
    California Supreme Court applied the prejudice prong of
    Strickland in an unreasonable manner. It did.
    The relevant inquiry under Strickland’s prejudice prong
    is “whether it is reasonably likely the result would have been
    different” had counsel not performed deficiently. Cannedy v.
    Adams, 
    706 F.3d 1148
    , 1162 (9th Cir. 2013) (quoting
    
    Harrington, 562 U.S. at 111
    –12). A court must “compare the
    evidence that actually was presented to the jury with that
    which could have been presented had counsel acted
    appropriately.” Thomas v. Chappell, 
    678 F.3d 1086
    , 1102
    (9th Cir. 2012) (quoting Karis v. Calderon, 
    283 F.3d 1117
    ,
    1133 (9th Cir. 2002)). As described in detail in part II, if
    Demby had provided effective assistance of counsel, the
    State’s theory of the case that Hardy was the actual killer
    would have been eviscerated. If Demby had investigated
    Boyd and then presented evidence that he made incriminating
    statements before and after the murder, and that his alibi was
    false, the jury would have been torn between two conflicting
    theories on the identity of the second killer. This would have
    created a reasonable doubt as to Hardy’s guilt. To the extent
    the California Supreme Court concluded there was not a
    substantial likelihood of a different result, it did not simply
    arrive at an incorrect conclusion about prejudice but it applied
    the Strickland prejudice prong in an objectively unreasonable
    manner.
    46                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    Hardy is entitled to relief based on the severity of
    Demby’s deficiency, the vital role Boyd’s testimony played
    in securing Hardy’s convictions, the lapses of the prosecution,
    and the utter dearth of other evidence inculpating Hardy.
    Conclusion
    Hardy was deprived of effective assistance of counsel at
    his trial and has demonstrated Strickland prejudice therefrom.
    Hardy’s attorney failed him, and the State of California failed
    Hardy by putting a man on the stand that it should have
    known committed the crime. We are not in a position to
    determine if, or to what extent, Hardy may have been
    involved in these heinous murders. But we can, and do, find
    that when the California Supreme Court failed to find
    ineffective assistance of counsel, its denial of Hardy’s claim
    was both contrary to and objectively unreasonable under
    Strickland. Accordingly, Hardy is entitled relief under
    AEDPA. We REVERSE the district court’s judgement and
    REMAND the case to the district court with instructions to
    grant the petition for a writ of habeas corpus.
    REVERSED and REMANDED.
    CALLAHAN, Circuit Judge, dissenting:
    This is a standard habeas case governed by AEDPA that
    requires us to evaluate the reasonableness of the state court’s
    determination that an error—here, an error made by defense
    counsel—was not prejudicial. In a unanimous 57-page
    opinion, the California Supreme Court found that under
    Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    (1984), James
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                        47
    Edward Hardy did not receive competent representation from
    his trial lawyer, who failed to discover evidence tending to
    show that Hardy was not the person who stabbed the mother
    and child to death. In re Hardy, 
    41 Cal. 4th 977
    , 1019–21
    (2007). Accordingly, the California Supreme Court vacated
    his death penalty. Applying Strickland’s prejudice test,
    however, the court affirmed his conviction as a conspirator
    and an aider and abettor, because the overwhelming evidence
    of Hardy’s participation in the crime was not undermined by
    the post-conviction evidence suggesting that another person
    did the actual stabbing. 
    Id. at 1021–30.
    The only issue certified by the district court for appeal is
    the California Supreme Court’s determination that Hardy has
    failed to show that his conviction as a conspirator and abettor
    was undermined by his trial attorney’s failure to uncover
    evidence that another person butchered the victims. Under
    AEDPA, we may not grant relief unless Hardy shows that the
    California Supreme Court’s decision applied Strickland in an
    “objectively unreasonable” manner. Davis v. Ayala, 135 S.
    Ct. 2187, 2198 (2015).
    As recently reaffirmed in our en banc opinion, where “it
    is possible to read the state court’s decision in a way that
    comports with clearly established federal law . . . we must do
    so.” Mann v. Ryan, —F.3d—, 
    2016 WL 3854234
    , at *11 (9th
    Cir. 2016) (en banc). This reflects the Supreme Court’s
    admonishments in Ayala that:
    under AEDPA, “a federal court may not
    award habeas relief under § 2254 unless the
    harmlessness determination itself was
    unreasonable.” And a state-court decision is
    not unreasonable if “‘fairminded jurists could
    48                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    disagree’ on [its] correctness.” [A petitioner]
    therefore must show that the state court’s
    decision to reject his claim “was so lacking in
    justification that there was an error well
    understood and comprehended in existing law
    beyond any possibility for fairminded
    
    disagreement.” 135 S. Ct. at 2199
    (internal citations omitted) (second
    emphasis added).
    Rather than follow the Supreme Court’s directions, the
    majority manufactures a legal standard that the state supreme
    court never utilized and refuses to recognize the
    reasonableness of the alternative bases of guilt identified by
    that court. Because the majority’s rationale and conclusion
    are contrary to AEDPA and to the Supreme Court’s opinions
    interpreting the AEDPA standard of review, I dissent.
    I.   Background
    Thirty-seven years ago, at the behest of Clifford Morgan,
    Mark Anthony Reilly and Hardy plotted to murder Morgan’s
    wife, Nancy, and their eight-year-old son, Mitchell. In
    exchange for their hard work, Morgan promised to reward the
    two handsomely, with money from the insurance proceeds he
    intended to collect from the deaths. The morning after
    Morgan gave final approval to proceed with the murders, a
    neighbor found Nancy’s and Mitchell’s bloody, lifeless
    bodies in the bedroom of the Morgan’s Van Nuys home. The
    two had been knifed to death—Morgan’s wife had been
    stabbed 45 times and their son 21 times.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                        49
    Morgan, Reilly and Hardy were arrested for the killings
    and charged with first degree murder and conspiracy to
    commit murder to collect life insurance proceeds. Cal. Penal
    Code §§ 182, 187. The amended information listed 24 overt
    acts committed by the men in furtherance of the conspiracy.
    The acts involving Hardy include: taking an M–1 rifle from
    the Morgan home on May 20 or 21 to make the murders
    appear to have been committed in the course of a
    robbery/burglary; participating in the arrangements the trio
    made to ensure that Morgan would be out of town when the
    murders took place; receiving instruction from Reilly as to
    how to commit the murders; meeting Reilly on May 20 to
    formulate their alibi with Colette Mitchell; and accompanying
    Reilly to burglarize the Morgan home, which Reilly
    accomplished by using a key supplied by Morgan to gain
    entry, and bolt cutters to disguise the purpose of the killings.
    Because the conspiracy continued after the murders took
    place, the information also listed several acts committed by
    Hardy while in pre-trial custody: he assisted Reilly in
    fabricating an alibi and/or a confession or testimony to enable
    Morgan to collect insurance proceeds, and a defense that
    would pin the murders on someone else; he communicated
    with Reilly over 60 times and joined him in conveying to
    other co-conspirators testimony given at the preliminary
    hearing, and in “formulat[ing]” their hearing testimony; and
    he arranged to have his brother dispose of the M–1 rifle taken
    from the Morgan home.
    Hardy, Reilly and Morgan were tried together in Los
    Angeles County Superior Court. At trial, Debbie Sportsman,
    Reilly’s girlfriend, and Colette Mitchell, Hardy’s girlfriend,
    provided key testimony linking Hardy to the murders.
    Sportsman testified that Hardy kept company with Reilly in
    the days before and after the murders. She also recounted
    50                   HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    that Hardy was present in Reilly’s apartment during Reilly’s
    telephone conversation with Morgan several hours before the
    killings. Colette testified that she was with Hardy the night
    before the murders and that, although she was not sure
    whether Hardy left the apartment between 2 a.m. and 11 a.m.
    the following day, he told her on two occasions that he had
    been to the victims’ home on the night of the murders. Hardy
    frequently discussed his alibi with her in the days following
    the murders and told her that bolt cutters had been used to
    enter the victims’ house. He also told her that Reilly was in
    charge, that insurance proceeds were the reason for the
    killing, and that Morgan was not worried about the delay
    caused by the trial because his insurance proceeds were
    earning 12 ¾ percent interest. Colette further recalled that
    Hardy received $1,000 in $100 bills after the murders.
    Finally, Colette testified that as a pre-trial detainee, Hardy
    instructed her to destroy a pair of shoes that he feared would
    match a footprint discovered at the crime scene, and to help
    him dispose of an M–1 carbine rifle allegedly stolen from
    Morgan’s home.
    At the State’s urging, the trial court permitted the jury to
    consider whether Hardy conspired to commit murder, or
    aided and abetted the killings. Regarding conspiratorial
    liability, the court explained that a conspirator includes a
    person “who, whether present or not at the commission or
    attempted commission of a crime, advise[s] and encourage[s]
    in its commission or attempted commission.” Hardy, 
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 1026. Such a person is “regarded by the law as [a]
    principal[] in the crime . . . and equally as guilty.” 
    Id. In defining
    a conspiracy, the court instructed that it is “an
    agreement” to commit a crime “followed by an overt act
    committed in this state by one of more persons of the parties
    for the purpose of accomplishing the object of the
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                        51
    agreement.” 
    Id. at 1027.
    The jury received a copy of the
    amended information listing the alleged overt acts. 
    Id. at 1026.
    In turn, the prosecutor argued that “based upon the
    facts of this case, . . . if one conspires to commit a murder for
    the purposes of collecting insurance, what is it other than
    premeditation and deliberation [justifying a verdict of first
    degree murder]?” 
    Id. at 1027.
    The prosecutor further argued:
    “We submit to you that Mr. Hardy joined that conspiracy, and
    when he joins the conspiracy, he adopts those acts
    [committed by Reilly and Morgan].” 
    Id. at 1027–28.
    The jury heard similar instructions and argument
    regarding aiding and abetting liability. The court defined an
    aider and abettor as someone who “aids, promotes,
    encourages or instigates by act or advice the commission” of
    a crime and explained that such person is “liable for the
    natural and reasonable or probable consequences of any act
    that he knowingly aided or encouraged.” 
    Id. at 1029.
    The
    prosecutor argued this theory of guilt to the jury: “[i]f you
    find that this is a first degree murder and if you find that each
    one of these individuals [Hardy, Morgan and Reilly]
    participated in that, either by aiding, abetting, by personally
    becoming involved, by encouraging, by soliciting, by aiding
    and abetting, each one of them individually [is guilty of first
    degree murder].” 
    Id. at 1029–30
    (second brackets by state
    court).
    The jury convicted Hardy, Morgan and Reilly of two
    counts of first degree murder, one for Nancy and one for
    Mitchell. Moreover, convinced that the three participated in
    a scheme to murder the victims and thus were jointly culpable
    for the deaths regardless of who performed the actual killings,
    the jury separately convicted each defendant of one count of
    conspiracy to commit murder to collect life insurance
    52                       HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    proceeds. Hardy and Reilly were sentenced to death.1 The
    convictions were affirmed on direct appeal to the California
    Supreme Court. 
    Hardy, 2 Cal. 4th at 216
    .
    II.    State and Federal Habeas Proceedings
    A. State Habeas Decision
    In 2007, the California Supreme Court affirmed Hardy’s
    conviction in state habeas proceedings. Hardy claimed,
    among other things, that defense counsel unreasonably and
    prejudicially failed to investigate and present significant
    evidence indicating that he was innocent of murder and that
    Calvin Boyd was probably the person who killed Nancy and
    Mitchell Morgan.        An evidentiary hearing revealed
    incriminating evidence against Boyd. The court found that
    this evidence, while failing to demonstrate Hardy’s
    innocence, created substantial doubt that he personally
    stabbed the victims, thus undermining confidence in the
    sentence. The court vacated Hardy’s death sentence on this
    basis.2
    The court upheld the guilty verdict, however, because
    counsel’s failure to discover and present the Boyd evidence
    did not undermine confidence in the jury’s determination that
    1
    The jury did not get the opportunity to consider Morgan’s sentence.
    The trial court severed his penalty phase trial from the other defendants
    when it was discovered that his health was failing due to cancer. Hardy,
    
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 987; People v. Hardy, 
    2 Cal. 4th 86
    , 128, 197 (1992),
    modified on denial of reh’g (May 14, 1992). Morgan died before the
    penalty phase of his separate trial could be held. 
    Id. 2 In
    2010, Hardy was re-sentenced to two consecutive life terms without
    the possibility of parole plus a consecutive prison term of 25 years to life.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                           53
    Hardy was guilty of murder as a co-conspirator. Hardy,
    
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 1021–30, 1036. Recognizing Strickland’s
    requirement that a defendant establish the prejudice he has
    allegedly suffered because of counsel’s deficient
    representation, the court required Hardy to show that “there
    is a ‘reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s
    unprofessional errors, the result of the [trial] would have been
    different.’” 
    Id. at 1018
    (quoting In re Avena, 
    12 Cal. 4th 694
    ,
    721 (1996)).3 Based on Supreme Court precedent, the court
    defined “reasonable probability” as “a probability sufficient
    to undermine confidence in the outcome.” 
    Id. Guided by
    these principles, the California Supreme Court
    considered whether post-conviction evidence that Boyd
    stabbed the victims undermined confidence in the guilty
    verdict. The court did so by “weighing [the] evidence and
    considering what petitioner’s trial would have looked like had
    he been represented by competent counsel.” 
    Id. at 1030.
    The
    court recognized that “although the prosecutor proceeded
    primarily on the theory that petitioner was the actual killer, he
    also presented to the jury two theories of derivative liability:
    conspiracy, and aiding and abetting.” 
    Id. at 1025.
    Citing the
    accusatory instrument, the jury instructions and the
    prosecutor’s closing arguments, the court found that the
    prosecution had adequately presented both alternative
    theories for the jury’s consideration. The court then
    determined that Debbie Sportsman’s and Colette Mitchell’s
    testimony “strongly” demonstrated that “[Hardy] conspired
    with, and aided and abetted, Reilly, Morgan and others” to
    kill Nancy and Mitchell Morgan for financial gain. 
    Id. at 1028–30.
    The court concluded that Hardy failed to meet
    3
    The standard quoted in Avena is excerpted from Strickland. 
    Avena, 12 Cal. 4th at 721
    (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    ).
    54                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    Strickland’s prejudice prong as to his guilt as a conspirator
    and an abettor.
    B. Federal Habeas Decision
    Hardy challenged the California Supreme Court’s 2007
    decision in habeas proceedings in federal court. The district
    court denied his petition but certified one issue for appellate
    review: whether the California Supreme Court reasonably
    concluded that Hardy was not prejudiced as a result of
    counsel’s failure to uncover and expose the fact that Boyd
    was the likely killer. This is the narrow question we must
    answer on appeal.
    III.   Standard of Review
    We review the district court’s decision de novo, but apply
    AEDPA’s “highly deferential standards” to the underlying
    state court decision. 
    Ayala, 135 S. Ct. at 2198
    ; Mann, 
    2016 WL 3854234
    , at *7. Under AEDPA, a claim that is
    adjudicated on the merits in state court may be reviewed by
    a federal court only to determine whether its adjudication was
    “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of,
    clearly established Federal law, as determined by the
    Supreme Court of the United States,” or (2) was “based on an
    unreasonable determination of the facts in light of the
    evidence presented at the State Court proceeding.” 28 U.S.C.
    § 2254(d); 
    Ayala, 135 S. Ct. at 2198
    . The Supreme Court
    continues to require that we rigorously apply AEDPA’s
    deferential mandate. 
    Ayala, 135 S. Ct. at 2198
    –99;
    Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 100–04 (2011). As part
    of that mandate, we must “presum[e] that state courts know
    and follow the law,” we must give state courts “the benefit of
    the doubt,” and we must make an “effort to reconcile” state
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                        55
    courts’ reasoning with clearly established law. Woodford v.
    Visciotti, 
    537 U.S. 19
    , 24 (2002) (per curiam).
    IV.    Deference to the California Supreme Court Is
    Required
    A. The California Supreme Court’s Correct Application
    of Strickland’s “Reasonable Probability” Standard
    Under AEDPA’s “contrary to” clause, we examine
    whether “the state court arrives at a conclusion opposite to
    that reached by [the Supreme] Court on a question of law or
    if the state court decides a case differently than [the Supreme]
    Court on a set of materially indistinguishable facts.” Mann,
    
    2016 WL 3854234
    , at *7 (quoting Williams v. Taylor,
    
    529 U.S. 362
    , 412–13 (2000)).
    Here, the state court began its prejudice analysis by
    reciting the Strickland standard verbatim, setting forth the
    “reasonable probability” test. It then proceeded to conduct
    three critical inquiries derived from the Supreme Court’s
    decision in Rompilla v. Beard, 
    545 U.S. 374
    (2005). In
    Rompilla, the Supreme Court found Strickland prejudice
    where counsel failed to discover mitigating evidence about
    the petitioner’s disadvantaged 
    background. 545 U.S. at 390
    –93. Had counsel investigated his client’s imprisonment
    record, the Court held, he would have discovered critical
    information that would likely have influenced the jury not to
    sentence him to death. 
    Id. Based on
    Rompilla, the California Supreme Court
    assessed Hardy’s prejudice claim by asking: “What evidence
    was available that counsel failed reasonably to discover?
    How strong was that evidence? How strong was the evidence
    56                     HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    of guilt produced at trial?” Hardy, 
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 1021–22
    (citing In re Thomas, 
    37 Cal. 4th 1249
    , 1265 (2006)).4 The
    court answered each of these questions, beginning with a
    recap of the new evidence implicating Boyd in the murders.
    The court then analyzed the trial evidence purporting to show
    that Hardy personally stabbed the victims and determined that
    the evidence was “weak and circumstantial.” 
    Id. at 1022.
    Finally, the court considered what trial evidence linked Hardy
    to the murder conspiracy and determined that the testimony
    from Hardy’s and Reilly’s girlfriends supported not only that
    theory, but also the State’s aiding and abetting theory of guilt.
    The California Supreme Court’s measured approach led to the
    principled decision to affirm Hardy’s conviction. Hardy,
    
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 1036.
    The majority cannot bring itself to defer to the California
    Supreme Court’s conclusion or methodology, however. To
    circumvent AEDPA, the majority fragments the state court
    opinion in a way that distorts the court’s prejudice
    formulation, making it appear as if the court embraced a test
    that was “contrary to” Strickland. In so doing, the majority
    defies Supreme Court precedent and our recently reaffirmed
    mandate that we must “read the [state court] decision to
    comport with clearly established federal” where it is possible
    to do so. Mann, 
    2016 WL 3854234
    , at *11; see 
    Visciotti, 537 U.S. at 24
    .
    In Mann, we applied this principle to a state court
    decision where “the court did not clearly state the [prejudice]
    standard it applied.” Mann, 
    2016 WL 3854234
    , at *11. We
    4
    Although the California Supreme Court cites to its decision in Thomas,
    Thomas expressly relies on Rompilla’s prejudice approach. 
    Thomas, 27 Cal. 4th at 1265
    .
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                               57
    “[r]ead[] the opinion as a whole” and made the “logical
    inference” that the state court applied the correct “reasonable
    probability” standard and not, as the petitioner contended, the
    “more-likely-than-not” standard. 
    Id. We based
    our
    conclusion on various factual findings relevant to the
    petitioner’s mitigation profile and the state court’s reference
    to a “controll[ing]” Arizona Supreme Court decision adopting
    the “reasonable probability” standard. 
    Id. Much like
    the petitioner in Mann, the majority argues that
    the state court employed a prejudice test that was
    “significantly harsher than the clearly established test from
    Strickland,” “creat[ing] a much higher bar for Hardy than the
    law require[s].” Maj. Op. 30, 32. The majority opines that
    the state decision applied a “substantial evidence” test—
    relevant to a sufficiency-of-the-evidence challenge—that
    impermissibly burdened Hardy with “demonstrat[ing] that
    had counsel performed adequately there would not have been
    sufficient evidence for a jury to convict” him. Maj. Op. 31.
    The California Supreme Court made no such blunder.
    The court used the term “substantial evidence”
    interchangeably with “ample evidence” or “overwhelming
    evidence” to underscore the strong evidence of Hardy’s guilt
    as a conspirator and an abettor.5 Given that the court’s
    5
    See Hardy, 
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 1029 (“there is ample evidence showing
    [Hardy] participated in the plan to kill the victims as part of a wider
    conspiracy”); 
    id. at 1030
    (“For much the same reasons we found
    substantial evidence supported a conspiracy theory of liability for first
    degree murder, we also find substantial evidence supports an aiding and
    abetting theory of liability. To recap: Overwhelming evidence tied Reilly
    to the conspiracy and the murders . . .”); 
    id. (“[W]e conclude
    that although
    there is a reasonable probability the jury would not have convicted
    [Hardy] on the prosecution’s proffered theory that he was the actual killer,
    58                       HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    opinion “painstakingly describes the Strickland standard,” its
    use of the term “substantial” and not another modifier of the
    majority’s choosing “may perhaps be imprecise, but . . . it can
    no more be considered a repudiation of the standard than can
    [the Supreme] Court’s own occasional indulgence in the same
    imprecision.” 
    Visciotti, 537 U.S. at 23
    –24. The California
    Supreme Court found that Hardy failed the “reasonable
    probability” test because the evidence that counsel failed to
    discover was of minimal weight as to Hardy’s participation
    in the murders, and was overwhelmed by other evidence of
    his role as a conspirator and as an aider and abettor.6
    The majority assumes the worst of the state supreme
    court, however, refusing to even attempt to reconcile the state
    court’s use of the term “substantial evidence” with its proper
    framing of the Strickland prejudice standard. See 
    id. at 24.
    “This readiness to attribute error is inconsistent with the
    presumption that state courts know and follow the law.’”7
    ample evidence remains that [he] was guilty of the murders on the
    alternative theories[.]”); 
    id. at 1036
    (“there being ample evidence [Hardy]
    was a coconspirator in the scheme to kill the victims”).
    6
    The missing evidence did, however, carry weight with respect to the
    sentence, as it tended to show Hardy might not have played the lead role
    in the murder conspiracy. Accordingly, the state court remanded for re-
    sentencing.
    7
    This presumption is especially compelling here, where the state court
    knew when to examine the record for substantial evidence—i.e., when
    reviewing the factual and credibility determinations of the reference
    hearing referee. Hardy, 
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 993 (“[W]e give great weight to
    those of the referee’s findings that are supported by substantial evidence.
    This is especially true for findings involving credibility
    determinations. . . . [Hardy] is entitled to challenge the referee’s findings,
    both on the ground that they are not supported by substantial evidence and
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                            59
    Mann, 
    2016 WL 3854234
    , at *11 (quoting 
    Visciotti, 537 U.S. at 24
    ). “Taken in context,” the California Supreme Court’s
    prejudice discussion demonstrates the great care the court
    took in weighing the evidence to determine whether the jury
    would have acquitted Hardy of murder under all theories of
    guilt had his attorney performed adequately. Id.; see
    
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 398
    –99 (upholding the state trial
    judge’s “[Strickland prejudice] conclusion that the entire
    postconviction record, viewed as a whole and cumulative of
    mitigation evidence presented originally, raised ‘a reasonable
    probability that the result of the sentencing proceeding would
    have been different’ if competent counsel had presented and
    explained the significance of all the available evidence”).
    “If [the Strickland] standard is difficult to meet, that is
    because it was meant to be.” 
    Richter, 562 U.S. at 102
    . The
    Supreme Court has explained that a petitioner’s “reasonable
    probability” showing must be “substantial, not just
    conceivable.” 
    Id. at 111–12
    (citing 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 693
    ). The majority acknowledges this requirement but
    somehow construes it to lighten a petitioner’s Strickland
    burden. Maj. Op. 30–31. It is the quantity and quality of trial
    evidence, as impacted by counsel’s errors, that determines
    whether the probability of reasonable doubt is “substantial”
    or, as here, “just conceivable.” See 
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 397
    –99.
    The majority’s misinterpretation of the California
    Supreme Court’s opinion reflects its failure to appreciate the
    issues raised in this appeal. The majority’s opinion
    “ignore[s] ‘the only question that matters’” in this case:
    for accuracy[.]”); Maj. Op. 30 n.5 (acknowledging proper application of
    “substantial evidence” standard to referee findings).
    60                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    “whether the state court’s application of the Strickland
    standard was unreasonable.” 
    Richter, 562 U.S. at 102
    (quoting Lockyer v. Andrade, 
    538 U.S. 63
    , 71 (2003)). The
    proper inquiry would force the majority to consider “what
    arguments or theories”—here, for example, key testimony
    from Debbie Sportsman and Colette Mitchell—“supported
    . . . or could have supported” the state supreme court’s
    determination that the jury verdict would not have changed
    had the missing evidence been presented. 
    Id. B. Reasonableness
    of the California Supreme Court’s
    Prejudice Determination
    In determining the reasonableness of a state court
    decision, the Supreme Court requires that we not only
    consider the reasons offered by the state court, but also “what
    arguments or theories supported or . . . could have supported,
    the state court’s decision.” 
    Id. (emphasis added).
    We are
    directed to then “ask whether it is possible fairminded jurists
    could disagree that those arguments or theories are
    inconsistent with the holding in a prior decision of this
    Court.” 
    Id. Applying these
    principles, the Supreme Court
    has held that “[a] state court’s determination that a claim
    lacks merit precludes federal habeas relief so long as
    ‘fairminded jurists could disagree’ on the correctness of the
    state court’s decision.” 
    Id. at 101
    (quoting Yarborough v.
    Alvarado, 
    541 U.S. 652
    , 664 (2004)).
    The California Supreme Court’s decision reflects its
    masterful grasp of the State’s multi-faceted case and why, in
    light of these nuances, Strickland precludes relief. In
    assessing the integrity of the jury verdict, the court examined
    the State’s approach to the defendants’ prosecution from
    arraignment to verdict. At the outset, it observed that the
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                      61
    amended information charged Hardy with conspiracy and
    alleged a series of overt acts committed by Hardy in
    furtherance of the conspiracy. It then pointed to all the
    evidence—including the testimony of Debbie Sportsman and
    Colette Mitchell—that bore out these allegations. The
    damning evidence is worth repeating: Hardy and Reilly
    began associating with each other in the days leading up to
    the murders; Hardy was with Reilly in Reilly’s apartment
    when Morgan gave final approval to proceed with the
    murders; Hardy rehearsed his alibi with Colette frequently in
    the days following the murders; Hardy knew critical details
    about the crimes, including that life insurance proceeds were
    the reason underlying and payment for the murders; Reilly
    played a leadership role in the planning efforts; Hardy
    received $1,000 cash after the murders; and Hardy instructed
    Colette regarding the disposal of potentially incriminating
    evidence. Hardy, 
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 1028–30. Based on all the
    evidence, the prosecutor during summation called the jurors’
    attention to the conspiracy and aiding and abetting
    instructions provided by the trial court and urged them to
    convict the three defendants as co-conspirators and as aiders
    and abettors to murder. The jury agreed, returning verdicts of
    first degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder.
    The majority nonetheless chastises the California
    Supreme Court for accepting the way in which the State
    prosecuted its case.       It myopically insists that the
    prosecution’s entire case rose and fell on the theory that
    Hardy was the actual killer, but this is refuted by the record
    and the jury’s verdict. Even if there were less evidentiary
    support for the California Supreme Court’s decision, the
    majority would still be bound by the Supreme Court’s clear
    instruction to consider “what arguments or theories supported
    or . . . could have supported, the state court’s decision.”
    62                  HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    
    Richter, 562 U.S. at 102
    ; see 
    Visciotti, 537 U.S. at 27
    (“[U]nder § 2254(d)(1), it is not enough to convince a federal
    habeas court that, in its independent judgment, the state-court
    decision applied Strickland incorrectly. The federal habeas
    scheme leaves primary responsibility with the state courts for
    these judgments.”).
    The majority’s contrary assessment of the evidence and
    legal arguments in this case turns on two errors of law. First,
    the majority asserts that “an aid-and-abet theory is wholly
    distinct from an actual killer theory and the jury could not
    simultaneously have found both true.” Maj. Op. 34–35. But
    as we have recognized, the law permits the State to present
    factually inconsistent theories of guilt, within constitutional
    limits of course. See Taylor v. Beard, 
    811 F.3d 326
    , 327, 331
    (9th Cir. 2016) (en banc) (state argued principal and aiding-
    and-abetting theories in the alternative). The majority’s logic
    begs the question: having charged Hardy with first degree
    murder, what leverage would the prosecution have gained by
    a conspiracy count, or an aiding-and-abetting instruction,
    premised on Hardy’s culpability as the actual killer? Nothing
    at all, since Hardy would be acting as a principal under all
    three theories of guilt.
    Second, contrary to principles of conspiratorial liability,
    the majority contends that the acts Hardy committed in
    furtherance of the conspiracy are too “minor” to render him
    culpable for murder. Maj. Op. 36. A conspiracy requires the
    commission of an overt act but does not distinguish between
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                            63
    major and minor acts.8 As the California Supreme Court held
    on direct appeal, the conspiracy in this case was primarily one
    to defraud insurance companies. 
    Hardy, 2 Cal. 4th at 143
    –44.
    The conspiracy continued until the co-conspirators received
    the insurance proceeds, or until Morgan was convicted of
    murder. 
    Id. at 144.
    Because the proceeds had not yet been
    paid at the time of trial, any of Hardy’s overt acts committed
    between the agreement to defraud and the trial—however
    minor that act may be in the eyes of the majority—was a
    cognizable basis for convicting him of conspiracy to commit
    murder to collect life insurance.
    The majority’s fixation on the fact that part of the State’s
    case hinged on an actual killer theory undoubtedly clouds its
    judgment on habeas review. It deliberately ignores the other
    theories of culpability advanced by the prosecution and points
    8
    As recited by the California Supreme Court:
    A conspiracy is an agreement entered into between two
    or more persons with the specific intent to agree to
    commit a public offense and with the further specific
    intent to commit such offense, followed by an overt act
    committed in this state by one or more of the parties for
    the purpose of accomplishing the object of the
    agreement.
    In order to find a defendant guilty of conspiracy, in
    addition to proof of the unlawful agreement and
    specific intent, there must be proof of the commission
    of at least one of the overt acts alleged in the
    information. It is not necessary to the guilt of any
    particular defendant that he himself committed the
    overt act, if he was one of the conspirators when such
    an act was committed.
    Hardy, 
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 1027 (quoting jury instructions).
    64                   HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    only to the evidentiary shortcomings undermining the
    prosecution’s assertion that Hardy did the actual stabbing.
    But the California Supreme Court did not hide the ball with
    respect to these weaknesses. It recognized that no one
    reported seeing Hardy leave Reilly’s apartment the night of
    the murders; no witnesses placed Hardy at the crime scene;
    no blood, fingerprint, footprint, hair or other forensic
    evidence linked him to the crimes; and no murder weapon
    was recovered. Such evidence could have shored up the
    prosecution’s actual killer theory. But the shortcomings of
    the State’s principal liability theory did not necessarily
    undercut its alternative case for conspiracy. So long as the
    State proved that Hardy intentionally participated in the
    murder plot, its case against all three defendants remained
    strong.
    The majority’s dismissive attitude towards the state
    court’s careful treatment of the jury verdict is contrary to the
    Supreme Court’s repeated instruction “not . . . to substitute its
    own opinion for the [state court’s] determination.” 
    Ayala, 135 S. Ct. at 2202
    . At this point, the Supreme Court’s
    AEDPA instructions to the Ninth Circuit might sound like a
    broken record. See 
    Visciotti, 537 U.S. at 22
    –27; Deck v.
    Jenkins, 
    814 F.3d 954
    , 986–87 & n.1 (9th Cir. 2016) (en
    banc) (M. Smith, J., dissenting) (citing Supreme Court cases
    reversing Ninth Circuit’s grant of AEDPA relief). The
    majority blithely marches forward to the beat of its own
    drum, however, substituting its judgment for that of the state
    supreme court. It discounts Debbie Sportsman’s “few
    circumstantial statements” regarding Hardy’s role in the
    murders. Maj. Op. 37. It also discredits Colette Mitchell’s
    testimony, cherry-picking statements from the state court
    opinion that acknowledge weaknesses in her testimony. Maj.
    Op. 37–38. But the California Supreme Court made those
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                              65
    acknowledgments only for purposes of assessing Hardy’s
    guilt as the actual killer and plainly accepted Colette’s
    testimony as supporting the jury’s conspiracy verdict.9 See
    Hardy, 
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 1023–25, 1028–30. Only by
    substituting its evaluation of the evidence for that of the
    jury—the very process forbidden by the Supreme Court—can
    the majority conclude that the California Supreme Court’s
    decision was unreasonable.
    V.     Conclusion
    The California Supreme Court’s meticulous opinion
    comports with Strickland. The court recited Strickland’s
    “reasonable probability” standard and faithfully applied it,
    inquiring whether counsel’s inadequate performance would
    have undermined confidence in the guilty verdict. The court
    concluded that the representation undermined the theory that
    Hardy actually stabbed the victims, thus prejudicing the death
    penalty verdict and justifying its vacatur. The court found no
    additional prejudice to the conviction, however, because
    critical post-conviction evidence did not blot out the
    substantial trial evidence establishing that Hardy conspired to
    9
    The majority asserts that the observations the state supreme court made
    in rejecting Hardy’s claim of innocence are “equally applicable” to his
    ineffective assistance of counsel claim. Maj. Op. 34. The rationale is
    flawed, however, because actual innocence claims and ineffective
    assistance of counsel claims are governed by separate and distinct legal
    standards. Compare Hardy, 
    41 Cal. 4th
    at 1016, 1018 (rejecting actual
    innocence claim where “the allegations . . . fail to undermine the
    prosecution’s entire case against [Hardy] or point unerringly to his
    innocence or reduced culpability”), with 
    id. at 1036
    (rejecting ineffective
    assistance of counsel claim where the “new evidence does not undermine
    our confidence that the jury would nevertheless have convicted [Hardy]
    of murder by relying on a conspiracy theory”).
    66                 HARDY V. CHAPPELL
    commit, and aided and abetted, the murders. This was not an
    objectively unreasonable conclusion given the overwhelming
    evidence connecting Hardy to the conspiracy. And even if
    the conclusion were erroneous, under AEDPA, we are not
    authorized to re-weigh the evidence to correct it.
    This is not the first time that we have gotten the
    “unreasonableness question” wrong. In Richter, the Supreme
    Court reprimanded us for
    treat[ing] the unreasonableness question as a
    test of its confidence in the result it would
    reach under de novo review: Because the
    Court of Appeals had little doubt that
    Richter’s Strickland claim had merit, the
    Court of Appeals concluded the state court
    must have been unreasonable in rejecting it.
    This analysis overlooks arguments that would
    otherwise justify the state court’s result and
    ignores further limitations of § 2254(d),
    including its requirement that the state court’s
    decision be evaluated according to the
    precedents of this Court. It bears repeating
    that even a strong case for relief does not
    mean the state court's contrary conclusion was
    
    unreasonable. 562 U.S. at 102
    (internal citation omitted). The majority in
    this case commits the very same error. See, e.g., Ayala,
    
    135 S. Ct. 2187
    ; Visciotti, 
    537 U.S. 19
    ; Williams, 
    529 U.S. 362
    . I agree with the justices of the California Supreme
    Court, the United States magistrate judge and the United
    States district judge that Hardy’s request for habeas relief
    should be denied.
    HARDY V. CHAPPELL                      67
    Somehow the Supreme Court’s instructions, as plain as
    they are, seem to have fallen on deaf ears. My hearing is not
    so dull. Because the majority has turned a blind eye to
    AEDPA and the Court’s interpretation of it, I dissent.