Smith v. Baldwin ( 2007 )


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  •                                              Volume 1 of 2
    FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    ROGER PAUL SMITH,                        No. 04-35253
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    v.                           D.C. No.
    CV-98-00059-OMP
    GEORGE H. BALDWIN,
    OPINION
    Respondent-Appellee.
    
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Oregon
    Owen M. Panner, Senior Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted
    June 18, 2007—San Francisco, California
    Filed December 26, 2007
    Before: Alex Kozinski, Chief Judge, and
    Mary M. Schroeder, Stephen Reinhardt, Andrew J. Kleinfeld,
    Sidney R. Thomas, M. Margaret McKeown,
    Kim McLane Wardlaw, William A. Fletcher,
    Raymond C. Fisher, Richard A. Paez, Richard C. Tallman,
    Richard R. Clifton, Jay S. Bybee, Milan D. Smith, Jr. and
    Sandra S. Ikuta, Circuit Judges.
    Milan D. Smith, Jr., Circuit Judge, delivered the opinion of
    the court, in which Kozinski, Chief Judge, and Kleinfeld,
    McKeown, Wardlaw, Tallman, Clifton, Bybee and Ikuta,
    Circuit Judges, join.
    Raymond C. Fisher, Circuit Judge, filed a concurring
    opinion, in which Schroeder, W. Fletcher, and Paez,
    Circuit Judges, join.
    16637
    16638                SMITH v. BALDWIN
    Stephen Reinhardt, Circuit Judge, filed a dissent, in which
    Thomas, Circuit Judge, joins.
    Sidney R. Thomas, Circuit Judge, filed a separate dissent.
    16642                SMITH v. BALDWIN
    COUNSEL
    Thomas J. Hester, Office of the Federal Public Defender,
    Portland, Oregon, for the petitioner-appellant.
    Kathleen Cegla, Assistant Attorney General; Erin C. Lagesen,
    Assistant Attorney General (argued), Salem, Oregon, for the
    respondent-appellee.
    OPINION
    MILAN D. SMITH, JR., Circuit Judge:
    We took this case en banc to correct a misconstruction of
    the Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
     (1995), “actual innocence”
    “gateway” by a divided panel of this court in Smith v. Bal-
    dwin, 
    466 F.3d 805
     (9th Cir. 2006), reh’g en banc granted,
    
    482 F.3d 1156
     (9th Cir. 2007). The panel erroneously held
    that Petitioner-Appellant Roger Paul Smith could satisfy the
    “actual innocence” standard to overcome “a procedural
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                  16643
    default of his claims insofar as they relate to his felony mur-
    der conviction,” thus permitting him to proceed with his con-
    stitutional claims. Smith, 466 F.3d at 807. We disagree, and
    we affirm the decision of the district court.
    While burglarizing the home of Emmett and Elma Konzel-
    man, either Smith or his criminal companion, Jacob Edmonds,
    bludgeoned eighty-seven-year-old Mr. Konzelman to death
    with a three-foot long crowbar. After Edmonds told police
    that Smith killed Konzelman, the prosecution offered
    Edmonds a plea deal contingent on his passing a polygraph
    examination. The results of the polygraph test were inconclu-
    sive, but the examiner opined that Edmonds had answered the
    questions truthfully and Edmonds entered the plea deal in
    exchange for his testimony against Smith. Despite Smith’s
    request, the prosecution did not reveal the results of
    Edmonds’s polygraph.
    Believing that Edmonds had passed the polygraph exami-
    nation, and knowing that Edmonds would testify against him,
    Smith entered a no contest plea to felony murder and first-
    degree robbery. Edmonds has now changed his story and
    claims that Smith did not kill Mr. Konzelman. Edmonds is
    unwilling to testify on Smith’s behalf, however, because the
    state has informed him that he will be prosecuted for the capi-
    tal murder of Mr. Konzelman if he insists on claiming that
    Smith was not the person who wielded the lethal crowbar.
    Smith asserts that the state’s actions constitute prosecutorial
    misconduct, and he argues that his failure to exhaust his state
    court remedies should be excused because Smith can show
    actual innocence, as well as cause and prejudice.
    Although the resolution of these issues is not essential to
    our analysis, in order to more clearly demonstrate Smith’s
    inability to meet his evidentiary burden, we assume without
    deciding that two of Smith’s arguments have merit: (1) the
    state committed prosecutorial misconduct by threatening to
    prosecute Edmonds for capital murder if he testified on
    16644                      SMITH v. BALDWIN
    Smith’s behalf; and (2) the proper remedy for the prosecu-
    torial misconduct is to compel the state to grant use immunity
    to Edmonds in an evidentiary hearing where Edmonds would
    testify that he, not Smith, killed Emmett Konzelman.1 We do
    not assume, and we expressly reject, the Smith panel majori-
    ty’s decision to treat Edmonds’s affidavits as “credible, for
    purposes of resolving the question whether Smith’s proce-
    dural default should bar him from presenting his habeas
    claims on the merits.” Smith, 466 F.3d at 828. Even indulging
    the two cited assumptions, however, we conclude that Smith
    has not satisfied the requirements of Schlup’s actual inno-
    cence exception with respect to his conviction for felony mur-
    der. We also hold that neither the actions of Smith’s first state
    post-conviction trial counsel nor the state’s withholding of the
    results of Edmonds’s polygraph examination constitute suffi-
    cient cause and prejudice to excuse the procedural default
    resulting from Smith’s failure to exhaust his state remedies.
    I.   Facts and Procedural Background
    During the early morning hours of April 4, 1989, after
    snorting methamphetamine, Smith, Edmonds, and Arlen Bouse2
    decided to steal enough money or property to enable them to
    purchase tickets for a rock concert the following night. The
    group drove around several neighborhoods in Edmonds’s
    truck searching for a good target. Ultimately, they discovered
    a house with the garage door open belonging to Emmett Kon-
    zelman and his wife, seventy-four-year-old Elma.
    After parking Edmonds’s truck near the Konzelmans’ resi-
    1
    We do not endorse the three-judge panel majority’s novel addition to
    our requirement that the prosecution grant use immunity, but merely
    assume it to show that even under this more stringent standard we must
    affirm the district court.
    2
    The record is unclear as to whether Mr. Bouse’s first name is “Arlen”
    or “Marlin.” The district and magistrate judges both used “Arlen,” but the
    sentencing transcript from the state court used “Marlin.”
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                    16645
    dence, all three men entered the garage. While in the garage,
    Smith inadvertently caused the door connecting the garage to
    the house to slam shut. Startled, the group fled from the
    garage and Bouse was separated from Smith and Edmonds.
    Bouse took a beer, a hat, and gloves from the garage and
    returned to the truck to await Edmonds and Smith. Bouse
    waited at the truck, but Edmonds and Smith did not return for
    approximately forty-five minutes.
    Although accounts of what happened next occasionally
    conflict, testimony of several witnesses establishes all the fac-
    tual elements essential to our analysis. Smith and Edmonds
    returned to the Konzelman residence and burglarized the
    house. Before entering the house, Smith and Edmonds spent
    some time in the garage. While there, they found two hats to
    wear as disguises. One man wore a baseball cap or a skull cap
    and the other wore a fedora hat. Smith and Edmonds also tied
    bandannas over their faces while in the garage. Both Smith
    and Edmonds wore gloves, though it is unclear what kind and
    how many. Edmonds stated that he wore white latex gloves
    while Smith wore a pair of black leather gloves. Smith, how-
    ever, has stated that he wore either one or two brown work
    gloves. In the garage, Smith and Edmonds also found a three-
    foot-long crowbar and a rope.
    Edmonds provided extensive testimony about what hap-
    pened in the Konzelmans’ residence at Smith’s sentencing
    hearing (Sentencing Hearing) on November 6 and 7, 1989.
    Smith’s attorney cross-examined Edmonds at the Sentencing
    Hearing.
    Q.   Who turned the light on?
    A.   Mr. Smith.
    Q.   Where were you when he turned that light on?
    A.   Standing in the doorway.
    16646                 SMITH v. BALDWIN
    Q.   Both of you were standing there in the door-
    way?
    A.   Right.
    Q.   Who had the crowbar?
    A.   Mr. Smith.
    Q.   What did you have in your hand?
    A.   A rope.
    Q.   Why did you take the rope into the bedroom?
    A.   In case they woke up and tried to call the cops
    or something.
    Q.   As the light was turned on, what did you see
    Mr. Smith do regarding the two people in the
    room, the other two, Mr. and Mrs. Konzelman?
    A.   I seen him just, ah, tell ’em to wake up.
    Q.   You heard that?
    A.   Yeah.
    Q.   Did you see them appear to wake up?
    A.   I seen Mrs. Konzelman appear to wake up,
    yeah.
    Q.   Did you see Mr. Konzelman?
    A.   He didn’t wake up right away, so Mrs. Konzel-
    man woke him up.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                16647
    Q.   What happened next?
    A.   He started to get up and Mr. Smith said to lay
    back down.
    Q.   Do you remember how he said that?
    A.   “Lay back down, old man.”
    Q.   Did Mr. Konzelman lay down?
    A.   No. I don’t think he heard him.
    Q.   What did you see Mr. Smith do then?
    A.   I seen him make a threatening gesture with the
    crowbar first.
    Q.   And then after he made the gesture what did he
    do?
    A.   I don’t know. I said, “I’m getting the fuck out
    of here.”
    Q.   While you were in the—still in the room, Mr.
    Edmonds, did you see anybody hit with that
    crowbar?
    A.   No.
    Q.   Did you leave the room or did you stay?
    A.   I left the room.
    Q.   How far away did you go?
    A.   Garage.
    16648                SMITH v. BALDWIN
    A.   How long were you gone?
    A.   Couple minutes, waiting for him to follow me.
    Q.   Did he follow you out?
    A.   No.
    Q.   What did you do then?
    A.   I went back in to get him.
    Q.   When you came back in the bedroom, what
    happened that you could see when you came
    back in the bedroom?
    A.   I seen Mr. Konzelman laying on the floor.
    ***
    Q.   Where was Mrs. Konzelman?
    A.   Laying on the bed.
    Q.   Did it appear that anything had happened to
    either one of those people while you were
    gone?
    A.   Mrs. Konzelman, I couldn’t tell. Mr. Konzel-
    man, there was blood on the bed.
    Q.   While you were there in the bedroom did you
    see Mr. Konzelman move?
    A.   Yeah, he got back up on the bed.
    Q.   As he was doing that, what happened?
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                  16649
    A.   Nothing. He just got back up on the bed and
    him and he [sic] wife laid together.
    Q.   Did you see anybody hit after that?
    A.   No.
    Q.   When Mr. Konzelman crawled back on the bed
    did he appear to have been injured?
    A.   Yeah.
    Q.   Why?
    A.   I don’t know. He just had a lot of blood all over
    him.
    Q.   Did there appear to be blood more in one place
    than any other place?
    A.   Yeah, the head.
    ****
    Q.   When you first went into the room it didn’t
    appear that either one of those people were hurt
    or injured when the light first came on?
    A.   No, they just looked scared.
    Q.   You saw him gesture toward them, I think was
    your term? You left the bedroom.
    A.   Yeah. I said, “Let’s get the fuck out of here.”
    Q.   Did Mr. Smith say anything; did he reply to
    your statement, “Let’s get out of here?”
    16650                 SMITH v. BALDWIN
    A.   No I didn’t give him time. I was gone.
    Q.   He could have said, “I’m coming.”
    A.   He didn’t say anything like that.
    Q.   But you didn’t hear anything?
    A.   Right.
    Q.   You said in the garage and coming back, then
    you noted there was injuries?
    A.   Yeah.
    Q.   At least a lot of blood on the bed?
    A.   Yes.
    Q.   And blood on Mr. Konzelman?
    A.   Right.
    Q.   Was there anybody else in the house besides the
    two Konzelman’s and you, and Roger Smith?
    A.   No.
    Mrs. Konzelman testified at the same hearing, confirming
    many of the details of Edmonds’s testimony.
    Q.   After he had come to bed what was the next
    thing you knew that was going on that wasn’t
    suppose to be happening?
    A.   That man standing in my bedroom looking at
    me.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                 16651
    Q.   At that time, Mrs. Konzelman, do you remem-
    ber one man or two men?
    A.   There were two men.
    Q.   Where in your bedroom were they, Ma’am?
    A.   One was in front of the dresser, the other was
    in the door.
    ****
    Q.   Was the light on or off at that time, Ma’am?
    A.   I can’t tell you that.
    Q.   At least there was two men. The light must have
    been on.
    A.   I can—I could tell—I could see plainly.
    Q.   When no one answered, did you check to see if
    your husband was there with you?
    A.   I did.
    Q.   Where was he?
    A.   He was still asleep right beside me.
    Q.   As far as you can remember—would you tell
    the Judge what you remember next happening
    with these two men and with you and your hus-
    band?
    A.   Well, apparently my husband moved as if he
    were going to—after I awakened him, as if he
    were going to do something and the guy said,
    16652                      SMITH v. BALDWIN
    “Lay down old man.” And that’s about my last
    memory. Until I felt (indicating) a hit across my
    forehead.
    The police later found the crowbar in the kitchen and the
    rope in the bedroom. After the beating, Elma Konzelman lay
    motionless in her bed until convinced the burglars had left the
    house. She climbed out of bed and when she realized that the
    intruders had disabled her phones she found her cane and
    slowly made her way to a neighbor’s house to call for help.
    Paramedics arrived quickly and rushed the Konzelmans to the
    hospital. Elma Konzelman required surgery to implant a metal
    plate in her head, but she survived. Emmett Konzelman died
    approximately sixteen hours later as a result of his injuries.
    Shortly after the attack on the Konzelmans, while the police
    were interrogating Edmonds about an unrelated offense,
    Edmonds mentioned that he had attended a Judas Priest con-
    cert. An alert police officer recalled that a ticket stub from the
    same concert was found in the street near the Konzelman resi-
    dence on the morning following the burglary. Further investi-
    gation revealed that the ticket stub belonged to Edmonds and
    he confessed to participating in the burglary. Edmonds identi-
    fied Smith and Bouse as his criminal companions and he
    stated that Smith entered the Konzelmans’ bedroom and beat
    them with the crowbar. Based on Edmonds’s description of
    the events and his apparent credibility,3 as well as Mrs. Kon-
    zelman’s statements to police and Smith’s history of violent
    crime, police charged Smith with aggravated murder, felony
    murder, burglary, two counts of robbery, and two counts of
    assault.
    Because Edmonds provided a statement indicating that
    3
    When police told Edmonds that they found his ticket stub at the scene,
    he put his head down on the table and began to cry. In addition, Edmonds
    made statements to his cellmate in prison that corroborated the version of
    events Edmonds gave to the police.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                      16653
    Smith beat the Konzelmans, the state offered him a plea
    agreement contingent on his passing a polygraph examination.
    The results of the polygraph were inconclusive, but the exam-
    iner stated that he believed Edmonds had answered the ques-
    tions truthfully. As a result, the state entered a plea agreement
    with Edmonds. Smith believed that Edmonds had passed the
    polygraph and requested a copy of the results. The prosecu-
    tion refused to give Smith the polygraph results, however,
    because it believed that it could not admit the polygraph
    results as evidence at trial and, thus, it was not required to
    share them with Smith.
    Smith faced prosecution for capital murder and he knew
    that Edmonds would testify against him. Instead of proceed-
    ing to trial, Smith elected to enter a plea agreement whereby
    he pled no contest to felony murder and one count of robbery.
    The state agreed to drop the remaining charges against Smith.
    At Smith’s insistence, the state also dropped charges of hin-
    dering prosecution against Jeanne Simons, Smith’s girlfriend,
    whom Edmonds had previously implicated in the crime.
    Although his attorney indicated that he was on some kind of
    “mild sedative or tranquilizer” during the plea hearing, when
    questioned by the judge, Smith replied that he did not feel
    affected by the medication and that he understood what was
    going on around him. After thoroughly reviewing the charges
    and likely sentence with Smith, the court accepted Smith’s
    plea. The sentencing judge stated that the evidence in the
    record was sufficient to satisfy him that Smith “caused the
    assault” and he imposed a life sentence with a minimum term
    of 30 years in prison.4 Thereafter, Smith filed unsuccessful
    direct appeals with the Oregon Court of Appeals and the Ore-
    gon Supreme Court.
    Smith then filed a petition for post-conviction relief in the
    Oregon Circuit Court. He claimed (1) ineffective assistance of
    4
    Smith does not challenge his sentence in the current federal habeas
    petition.
    16654                  SMITH v. BALDWIN
    counsel because his trial lawyer failed to properly advise him
    of potential defenses and “hounded” Smith into pleading no
    contest, and (2) a violation of his due process rights both
    because Edmonds’s plea bargain wrongfully exposed Smith to
    “greater consequences for his acts than are legally justifiable”
    and because Smith was on drugs when he entered his plea,
    thus rendering it unknowing and involuntary, notwithstanding
    his contemporaneous report that he felt unaffected by the
    drugs. The Oregon Circuit Court denied Smith’s petition on
    the merits and also denied his request for appointment of new
    counsel.
    The Oregon Court of Appeals appointed new counsel for
    Smith. On appeal, however, Smith argued only that the Ore-
    gon Circuit Court that heard his post-conviction claims should
    have appointed new counsel for him; he did not challenge the
    denial of his substantive post-conviction claims on the merits.
    The Oregon Court of Appeals affirmed without opinion the
    Circuit Court’s refusal to appoint new counsel for Smith and
    the Oregon Supreme Court denied review. Accordingly,
    Smith never presented his substantive post-conviction claims
    to the Oregon Supreme Court, and thus they are procedurally
    defaulted.
    Meanwhile, Edmonds completed his sentence for the Kon-
    zelman robbery and was released from prison. In 1992,
    Edmonds was arrested on various charges of rape, sodomy,
    and kidnapping with a firearm, to which he pleaded no contest
    and was sentenced to life in prison.
    On February 16, 1996, Edmonds signed an affidavit read-
    ing, in pertinent part:
    On April 4, 1989, myself, Roger Smith and Arlen
    Bouse were involved in a residential burglary. On
    the above date mentioned Emmit Konzleman [sic]
    was bludgeoned to death at the adress [sic] of 3030
    South Shore Drive, Albany, OR.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                   16655
    After all incidents occured [sic] and I had been
    apprehended and taken into custody. [sic] I stated in
    a sworn statement that Roger Smith was my code-
    fendent and had in fact bludgeoned Emmit Konzle-
    man [sic] to death.
    I would like to, for the record [sic] retract that
    statement. Roger Smith did not kill Emmit Konzle-
    man. [sic]
    I am confessing right now that I committed pur-
    gory [sic] with full knowledge of the consequences.
    The reason I lied under oath was because my
    attorney of record at the time Thomas Hill led me to
    believe that Roger Smith was about to testify and
    leave me to do a life sentence for a crime I did not
    commit.
    The only way for me to set the record straight is
    to write this confession now.
    Based on Edmonds’s recantation, Smith again sought post-
    conviction relief in state court claiming that the recantation
    constituted new exculpatory evidence. Smith also claimed that
    his due process rights were violated because his trial counsel
    failed to explain the difference between aggravated murder
    and felony murder, and, given his below-average intelligence
    and his use of drugs, the trial court further failed to adequately
    explain the charges against him. The Oregon Circuit Court
    granted summary judgment for the state and Smith appealed.
    While the appeal was pending, Smith filed a motion for vol-
    untary dismissal, apparently because he grew frustrated with
    his attorney and the delays caused by the court granting exten-
    sions of time. The court granted Smith’s motion for voluntary
    dismissal of his state claims and Smith turned to federal court.
    In 1997, Smith filed a petition for writ of habeas corpus in
    the federal district court. Smith raised four substantive claims
    16656                   SMITH v. BALDWIN
    in his federal habeas petition: (1) the plea resulting in his con-
    viction was not knowing and voluntary; (2) ineffective assis-
    tance of counsel during the investigative and trial preparation
    stages of his case; (3) ineffective assistance of counsel during
    the plea negotiation/entry stage; and (4) ineffective assistance
    of counsel in hearings before the Oregon Circuit Court.
    While Smith’s federal habeas petition was pending, he
    received another affidavit from Edmonds, dated July 24,
    2001. That affidavit reads in pertinent part:
    1.   On April 4, 1989, I participated in a residential
    burglary at 3030 Southshore Drive in Albany,
    Oregon, along with Roger Smith and Arlen
    Bouse.
    2.   I clearly recall the events relating to the burglary
    and this affidavit is based entirely on my first
    hand knowledge of those events.
    3.   During the course of the burglary, an elderly res-
    ident of the home, Mr. Emmit Konzleman [sic],
    was bludgeoned to death.
    4.   In the underlying prosecution of Mr. Smith and
    myself, I falsely stated, under oath, that Mr.
    Smith had bludgeoned Mr. Konzleman [sic],
    when in fact I knew that he had not.
    5.   I recognize that my false sworn statement was
    an act of perjury, and I acknowledged this when
    I sent a sworn recantation to the Linn County
    District Attorney in 1996.
    6.   I know that Mr. Smith did not bludgeon or oth-
    erwise strike Mr. Konzleman [sic] and I know
    that Mr. Smith never entered the Konzleman’s
    bedroom, where the killing occurred.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                         16657
    7.   I was motivated to falsely implicate Mr. Smith
    because my trial attorney and others counseled
    that, by doing so, I could avoid prosecution for
    murder or aggravated murder.
    8.   As a part of my plea agreement in the underly-
    ing case, I was required to take a polygraph con-
    cerning the murder and I was told that I neither
    passed or failed that test but that the results were
    inconclusive.
    After receiving the new affidavit from Edmonds, Smith
    amended his federal habeas petition to include two additional
    claims: (1) Smith’s conviction was unconstitutional because
    he was actually innocent of felony murder; and (2) Smith’s
    due process rights were violated under Brady v. Maryland,
    
    373 U.S. 83
     (1963), when the prosecution made a deal with
    the actual killer and failed to produce the results of
    Edmonds’s polygraph test when requested.
    After receiving a copy of Edmonds’s second affidavit, a
    state prosecutor met with Edmonds and his newly appointed
    counsel. The prosecutor informed Edmonds that if he insisted
    on testifying in accordance with his recantations, the state
    would seek to set aside his plea agreement in this case, sub-
    jecting Edmonds to capital murder charges for killing Emmett
    Konzelman. If, however, Edmonds reaffirmed his original tes-
    timony identifying Smith as the killer, the state would agree
    not to pursue perjury charges based on the contents of the
    affidavits. Edmonds conferred with counsel and decided to
    invoke his Fifth Amendment rights and refused to testify.
    Smith argued that the state’s actions constituted prosecu-
    torial misconduct intended to distort the fact-finding process
    and he requested that the federal district court order an evi-
    dentiary hearing and compel the state to grant use immunity5
    5
    When a witness receives a grant of use immunity, “while the govern-
    ment may prosecute the witness for an offense related to the subject matter
    16658                      SMITH v. BALDWIN
    to Edmonds under United States v. Westerdahl, 
    945 F.2d 1083
    (9th Cir. 1991). The federal district court rejected Smith’s
    claim of prosecutorial misconduct and denied his request for
    an evidentiary hearing. The district court held that it was
    unable to reach the merits of Smith’s habeas petition because
    Smith had failed to exhaust his claims in state court. The dis-
    trict court also concluded that Smith’s failure to properly
    exhaust his state court remedies constituted procedural
    default, which Smith could not overcome because he had
    failed to demonstrate either actual innocence or cause and
    prejudice. Smith appealed to this court.
    A majority of a three-judge panel of this court held that
    “because prosecutorial misconduct in connection with his fed-
    eral habeas proceedings seriously interfered with Smith’s
    ability to make the necessary showing under Schlup, and
    because the resultant harm cannot be effectively remedied by
    less intrusive means, the exculpatory testimony withheld from
    the court as a result of the state’s actions must be presumed
    to be true.” Smith, 466 F.3d at 806-07. As a result, the panel
    majority concluded that “Smith satisfies the Schlup ‘actual
    innocence’ standard for overcoming a procedural default of
    his claims insofar as they relate to his felony murder convic-
    tion . . . and thus Smith is entitled to proceed with his consti-
    tutional claims.” Id. at 807. The dissenting judge argued that,
    even assuming prosecutorial misconduct, “the evidence in this
    case is still insufficient to qualify Smith for Schlup v. Delo’s
    actual innocence gateway.” Id. at 829 (Bybee, J., dissenting).
    We agreed to rehear this case en banc. We focus our analy-
    sis primarily on whether Smith can overcome his procedural
    default either by demonstrating actual innocence under Schlup
    of the witness’s testimony, the testimony itself and any ‘fruits’ thereof
    may not be used against the witness in any criminal case except a prosecu-
    tion for perjury arising out of the testimony.” United States v. Lord, 
    711 F.2d 887
    , 890 (9th Cir. 1983).
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                    16659
    or by establishing cause and prejudice. Because we hold that
    Smith fails on both counts, we affirm the decision of the dis-
    trict court.
    II.   Standard of Review and Jurisdiction
    Smith’s federal habeas petition was filed after April 24,
    1996, and is thus governed by the Antiterrorism and Effective
    Death Penalty Act of 1996 (“AEDPA”), 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    .
    Woodford v. Garceau, 
    538 U.S. 202
    , 204, 210 (2003). We
    review de novo the district court’s decision to dismiss the fed-
    eral habeas petition for procedural default. Manning v. Foster,
    
    224 F.3d 1129
    , 1132 (9th Cir. 2000). The district court’s
    denial of an evidentiary hearing pursuant to AEDPA is
    reviewed for abuse of discretion. Davis v. Woodford, 
    384 F.3d 628
    , 638 (9th Cir. 2004). We review the district court’s rele-
    vant factual findings for clear error. Barajas v. Wise, 
    481 F.3d 734
    , 738 (9th Cir. 2007).
    We have appellate jurisdiction over the district court’s
    denial of the petition under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2253
    .
    III.   Analysis
    Smith’s amended federal habeas petition raised six claims:
    (1) lack of a knowing and voluntary plea; (2) ineffective assis-
    tance of counsel during the investigative and trial preparation
    stages of this case; (3) ineffective assistance of counsel during
    the plea negotiation/entry stage of this case; (4) ineffective
    assistance of counsel in hearings before the Oregon Circuit
    Court; (5) actual innocence of felony murder, rendering
    Smith’s conviction unconstitutional; and (6) violation of
    Smith’s due process rights under Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
     (1963), when the prosecution made a deal with the actual
    killer and failed to comply with Smith’s request to produce
    the results of Edmonds’s polygraph test. The district court
    declined to address these claims on the merits because it
    determined that they were procedurally defaulted. The district
    16660                  SMITH v. BALDWIN
    court also denied Smith’s request for an evidentiary hearing
    and found that the state did not commit prosecutorial miscon-
    duct leading to Edmonds’s decision not to testify on behalf of
    Smith.
    On appeal, Smith argues that (1) his federal habeas claims
    are not procedurally defaulted, (2) even if they are defaulted,
    such default is excused because of actual innocence as well as
    cause and prejudice, (3) Smith is at least entitled to an eviden-
    tiary hearing, and (4) the state committed prosecutorial mis-
    conduct.
    Given our holding in this case and because it highlights the
    weakness of Smith’s case, we assume, arguendo, that Smith
    is entitled to an evidentiary hearing and that the state commit-
    ted prosecutorial misconduct. As noted, however, we do not
    presume Edmonds’s affidavits to be “credible, for purposes of
    resolving the question whether Smith’s procedural default
    should bar him from presenting his habeas claims on the mer-
    its,” as required by the panel majority. Smith, 466 F.3d at 828.
    Even if we assume that the state committed prosecutorial mis-
    conduct by threatening to seek the death penalty against
    Edmonds if he testified on behalf of Smith, and that the state
    should be forced to grant use immunity to Edmonds at an evi-
    dentiary hearing at which he would testify that he, rather than
    Smith, killed Mr. Konzelman, Smith still cannot overcome his
    procedural default because he cannot show either actual inno-
    cence of felony murder or cause and prejudice from the
    default.
    A.   Smith’s federal habeas claims are procedurally
    defaulted.
    [1] Before a federal court may consider the merits of a state
    prisoner’s petition for a writ of habeas corpus, the prisoner
    generally must first exhaust his available state court remedies.
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (b); see also Rose v. Lundy, 
    455 U.S. 509
    ,
    515 (1982). If the petitioner fails to present his federal claims
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                          16661
    to the state’s highest court, and if he is procedurally barred
    from presenting those claims to the appropriate state court at
    the time of filing his federal habeas petition, the petitioner’s
    claims are considered procedurally defaulted for purposes of
    federal habeas review. O’Sullivan v. Boerckel, 
    526 U.S. 838
    ,
    848 (1999).
    [2] Smith raises several constitutional claims in his federal
    habeas petition, none of which he properly exhausted in state
    court. In his first round of state post-conviction proceedings,
    Smith abandoned all substantive claims and challenged on
    appeal only the denial of his motion for new counsel by the
    state trial court on post-conviction review. Smith abandoned
    all federal claims raised in his second post-conviction action
    when the court granted his motion to voluntarily dismiss the
    appeal.6 Accordingly, Smith’s federal habeas claims are not
    properly exhausted. In addition, his claims are procedurally
    defaulted for federal habeas purposes because Oregon’s time
    limit for filing petitions for post-conviction relief bar Smith
    from now returning to state court to exhaust his remedies. 
    Or. Rev. Stat. § 138.510
    (3) (2005).
    Smith presents two arguments on appeal to excuse his fail-
    ure to raise his claims before the Oregon courts, neither of
    which help him. Smith notes that, despite a petitioner’s failure
    to exhaust his state remedies, a federal court will consider the
    merits of a federal habeas petition when “circumstances exist
    that render [the state post-conviction] process ineffective to
    protect the rights of the applicant.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (b)(1)
    (B)(ii). First, Smith argues that Oregon’s post-conviction pro-
    cess was ineffective because, with respect to his first petition,
    the original post-conviction court denied his request for new
    counsel and, on appeal, the state court denied Smith’s request
    to depose his trial counsel and the prosecutor. Second, Smith
    6
    Smith did properly exhaust on direct review his Eighth Amendment
    challenge to the length of his sentence, but he does not raise that claim in
    his federal habeas petition.
    16662                        SMITH v. BALDWIN
    argues that Oregon’s post-conviction process was ineffective
    because the post-conviction trial court denied his second peti-
    tion by holding that it could not allow relief based on newly-
    discovered evidence of actual innocence under 
    Or. Rev. Stat. § 138.530
    (1) (2005).7 Smith claims that this ruling establishes
    that Oregon’s post-conviction process was ineffective to pro-
    tect his rights because it prevents the state post-conviction
    court from considering evidence of actual innocence. There-
    fore, Smith argues that his failure to exhaust state remedies
    should be excused under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (b)(1)(B)(ii).
    [3] We need not reach the merits of either of these argu-
    ments, however, because these excuses for failure to exhaust
    are irrelevant to our present inquiry. Smith needs no excuse
    from the exhaustion requirement because he has technically
    exhausted his state remedies through his procedural default.
    The Supreme Court has noted that “[a] habeas petitioner who
    has defaulted his federal claims in state court meets the tech-
    nical requirements for exhaustion; there are no state remedies
    any longer ‘available’ to him.” Coleman v. Thompson, 
    501 U.S. 722
    , 732 (1991). In cases such as this, where a petitioner
    7
    
    Or. Rev. Stat. § 138.530
    (1) (2005):
    (1) Post-conviction relief pursuant to ORS 138.510 to 138.680
    shall be granted by the court when one or more of the following
    grounds is established by the petitioner:
    (a) A substantial denial in the proceedings resulting in petition-
    er’s conviction, or in the appellate review thereof, of petitioner’s
    rights under the Constitution of the United States, or under the
    Constitution of the State of Oregon, or both, and which denial
    rendered the conviction void.
    (b) Lack of jurisdiction of the court to impose the judgment
    rendered upon petitioner’s conviction.
    (c) Sentence in excess of, or otherwise not in accordance with,
    the sentence authorized by law for the crime of which petitioner
    was convicted; or unconstitutionality of such sentence.
    (d) Unconstitutionality of the statute making criminal the acts
    for which petitioner was convicted.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                   16663
    did not properly exhaust state remedies and “the court to
    which the petitioner would be required to present his claims
    in order to meet the exhaustion requirement would now find
    the claims procedurally barred,” the petitioner’s claim is pro-
    cedurally defaulted. 
    Id.
     at 735 n.1. In light of the procedural
    bar to Smith returning to state court to exhaust his state reme-
    dies properly, the relevant question becomes whether Smith’s
    procedural default can be excused, not whether Smith’s fail-
    ure to exhaust can be excused. Therefore, the exceptions to
    the exhaustion requirement set forth in § 2254(b) are irrele-
    vant to Smith’s petition. Rather, we must determine whether
    we can excuse Smith’s procedural default under the applica-
    ble exception to that rule.
    B.   Smith cannot overcome his procedural default.
    [4] On federal habeas review under AEDPA, generally
    “[w]e may not reach the merits of procedurally defaulted
    claims.” Williams v. Stewart, 
    441 F.3d 1030
    , 1061 (9th Cir.
    2006) (per curiam). However, a petitioner can overcome pro-
    cedural default and obtain federal review of the merits of his
    claim in one of two ways. First, a petitioner overcomes proce-
    dural default if he presents sufficient evidence to “demon-
    strate that failure to consider the claims will result in a
    fundamental miscarriage of justice.” Coleman, 
    501 U.S. at 750
    . To make this showing, a petitioner’s case must fall
    within the “narrow class of cases . . . [involving] extraordi-
    nary instances when a constitutional violation probably has
    caused the conviction of one innocent of the crime.”
    McCleskey v. Zant, 
    499 U.S. 467
    , 494 (1991). Second, a peti-
    tioner may overcome procedural default by making “an ade-
    quate showing of cause and prejudice” for his failure to
    exhaust his state court remedies. Strickler v. Greene, 
    527 U.S. 263
    , 282 (1999). Because we conclude that Smith has demon-
    strated neither actual innocence nor cause and prejudice, we
    cannot consider the merits of Smith’s procedurally defaulted
    federal habeas petition.
    16664                         SMITH v. BALDWIN
    1.    Actual Innocence
    We will excuse Smith’s procedural default if he can make
    the requisite showing of actual innocence of his conviction for
    felony murder. See Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 315-16
    .8 In this con-
    text, Smith’s “claim of innocence . . . is procedural, rather
    than substantive” because it allows him to overcome proce-
    dural default to obtain federal review of his substantive con-
    stitutional claims on the merits. 
    Id. at 314
    . Such a “claim of
    innocence is thus ‘not itself a constitutional claim, but instead
    a gateway through which a habeas petitioner must pass to
    have his otherwise barred constitutional claim considered on
    the merits.’ ” 
    Id. at 315
     (quoting Herrera v. Collins, 
    506 U.S. 390
    , 404 (1993)). In order to pass through the actual inno-
    cence procedural gateway of Schlup, Smith must show that,
    in light of all available evidence, it is more likely than not that
    no reasonable juror would convict him of the relevant crime.
    See House v. Bell, 
    126 S. Ct. 2064
    , 2076-77 (2006).9
    8
    Based on the briefs, record, and oral argument, we conclude that Smith
    challenges only the procedural default with respect to his conviction for
    felony murder and not with respect to his conviction for robbery. Smith
    does not offer any facts or arguments to support a claim of actual inno-
    cence of the robbery conviction or to otherwise excuse his procedural
    default concerning that conviction.
    9
    We recognize that in Schlup the Supreme Court made the actual inno-
    cence gateway available to a federal habeas petitioner who was convicted
    following a jury trial, while in this case, Smith entered a no contest plea
    in state court rather than proceeding to trial. We are aware of a potential
    incongruity between the purpose of the actual innocence gateway
    announced in Schlup and its application to cases involving guilty (or no
    contest) pleas. See Bousley v. United States, 
    523 U.S. 614
    , 629-36 (1998)
    (Scalia, J., dissenting). For purposes of our analysis, however, we assume
    without deciding that the actual innocence gateway is available to Smith.
    We do not determine whether the Schlup actual innocence gateway always
    applies to petitioners who plead guilty (or no contest), but in this case, the
    state has not raised the argument and, more importantly, Smith has failed
    to satisfy the requirements of Schlup. Thus, the question is ultimately irrel-
    evant for purposes of the habeas petition under consideration.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                   16665
    [5] In this case, Smith pled no contest to felony murder, an
    offense with which he was charged because Emmett Konzel-
    man was killed in the course of the burglary committed by
    Smith and Edmonds. Smith does not dispute his involvement
    in the burglary, but instead rests his actual innocence claim on
    Oregon’s affirmative defense to felony murder, which has
    five statutory elements. See 
    Or. Rev. Stat. § 163.115
    (3)
    (2005). Had Smith gone to trial on the felony murder charge,
    he would have had the burden of proving all five elements of
    the affirmative defense by a preponderance of the evidence.
    
    Id.
     § 161.055(2). Accordingly, to pass through the Schlup
    actual innocence gateway, Smith must prove that it is more
    likely than not that no reasonable juror would have found that
    he failed to establish any of the five elements of the affirma-
    tive defense by a preponderance of the evidence. See
    Jaramillo v. Stewart, 
    340 F.3d 877
    , 882-83 (9th Cir. 2003);
    Griffin v. Johnson, 
    350 F.3d 956
    , 963-64 (9th Cir. 2003).
    [6] Oregon’s statutory affirmative defense to felony murder
    requires Smith to prove that he:
    (a) Was not the only participant in the underlying
    crime;
    (b) Did not commit the homicidal act or in any way
    solicit, request, command, importune, cause or aid in
    the commission thereof;
    (c) Was not armed with a dangerous or deadly
    weapon;
    (d) Had no reasonable ground to believe that any
    other participant was armed with a dangerous or
    deadly weapon; and
    (e) Had no reasonable ground to believe that any
    other participant intended to engage in conduct
    likely to result in death.
    16666                   SMITH v. BALDWIN
    
    Or. Rev. Stat. § 163.115
    (3). Because Smith and Edmonds
    both participated in the burglary of the Konzelman residence,
    the state does not dispute that Smith has established element
    (a). Each of the remaining four elements is contested. Even
    though we assume, arguendo, that the state engaged in pro-
    secutorial misconduct and that Edmonds would testify at that
    hearing that he, not Smith, was the true killer, we hold that
    Smith cannot meet his high burden of establishing actual
    innocence of felony murder under Schlup because he cannot
    meet the requisite evidentiary burden for all five elements of
    his affirmative defense to take advantage of the gateway. Spe-
    cifically, Smith cannot meet his burden under elements (b),
    (c), or (d).
    (b)   “Did not commit the homicidal act”
    [7] The second element of the affirmative defense requires
    Smith to prove, by a preponderance of the evidence, that he
    was not Mr. Konzelman’s actual killer. 
    Or. Rev. Stat. § 163.115
    (3)(b). We have assumed for purposes of this analy-
    sis that, granted use immunity, Edmonds would testify to this
    effect. We do not assume, however, that every reasonable
    juror would believe him.
    Edmonds, taking the stand in Smith’s defense, would be
    confronted with the numerous inconsistent statements he has
    made under oath and to his cellmate in prison. He would have
    his contradictory statements to the police read into the record
    to impeach his credibility. He would be forced to refute his
    prior testimony at Smith’s Sentencing Hearing, where he
    recounted, in detail, seeing Smith with the crowbar in his
    hand and threatening Mr. Konzelman, leaving, and returning
    to find Mr. Konzelman battered on the floor and a pool of
    blood on the bed where he had been lying. See Fed. R. Evid.
    801(d)(1) (admitting prior statements to prove the truth of the
    matter asserted therein where declarant testified under oath
    and was subject to cross examination). This refutation would
    be no less difficult for the fact that his prior testimony is sub-
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                    16667
    stantially corroborated by that of Mrs. Konzelman, the only
    surviving victim of what occurred in the Konzelmans’ bed-
    room. Edmonds’s prior testimony that Smith woke the Kon-
    zelmans by turning on the lights and that he was standing
    behind Smith in the doorway when Smith entered the room,
    his description of the confrontation between Mr. Konzelman
    and Smith, and his statement that he left the doorway shortly
    before the beating occurred, all correspond to Mrs. Konzel-
    man’s description of the same events, given in the same pro-
    ceeding. The fact that the police found the rope (which
    Edmonds admitted to carrying) in the bedroom is further evi-
    dence that he was there.
    Even Edmonds’s wholesale disavowal of parts of his previ-
    ous testimony would not exculpate Smith. Edmonds would,
    for example, have to reconcile the inconsistencies in the two
    affidavits. In his February 1996 affidavit, Edmonds wrote
    both that “Roger Smith did not kill Emmit Konzleman [sic]”
    and that Edmonds lied because “Roger Smith was about to
    testify and leave [Edmonds] to do a life sentence for a crime
    [Edmonds] did not commit.” It is undisputed, however, that
    one of them was the killer. His second, 2001 affidavit, on the
    other hand, states merely that he committed perjury to avoid
    being sent to prison. This would be consistent with the first
    statement of his 1996 affidavit, but in tension with the second.
    That second affidavit, which states categorically that “Mr.
    Smith never entered the Konzleman’s [sic] bedroom, where
    the killing occurred,” also contradicts Mrs. Konzelman’s testi-
    mony that both burglars were in the room at one point, as well
    as what Edmonds told the police under oath, and what he told
    his cellmate while he was in prison.
    [8] Edmonds would also have to convince the jurors that
    they should believe him now, with no corroborating evidence,
    when the statute of limitations on perjury has expired,10 and
    10
    A perjury charge for Edmonds’s testimony at Smith’s Sentencing
    Hearing would be barred by the statute of limitations.
    16668                       SMITH v. BALDWIN
    when he is serving a life term in prison, meaning that he faces
    almost no consequences for lying to them now. Why would
    a reasonable juror believe Edmonds, knowing that he was fac-
    ing yet another story spun by a drug addict, kidnapper, rapist,
    and admitted perjurer who, because of his current life sen-
    tence, can now lie with impunity? Smith must not only show
    that such a juror would find it more likely than not that
    Edmonds was lying in his statements to the police, his cell-
    mate, and to the court in his Sentencing Hearing testimony;
    he must also show that every reasonable juror would find it
    more likely than not that Edmonds, at long last, has decided
    to tell the truth. We do not find it more likely than not that
    every juror would do so.
    [9] Edmonds’s recantation changes little. A reasonable
    juror would still have sufficient evidence to believe that Smith
    was more likely than not the real killer, and Smith certainly
    cannot meet his burden by a preponderance of the evidence.11
    11
    Curiously, our dissenting colleagues are unhappy that we make what
    they refer to as “credibility findings,” Reinhardt, J., dis. op. at 16695, in
    evaluating evidence a reasonable juror might review in making a Schlup
    “actual innocence” determination in this case. They had no hesitancy in
    making similar determinations themselves when they participated as en
    banc members of the majority making a Schlup “actual innocence” evalua-
    tion in Carriger v. Stewart, 
    132 F.3d 463
     (9th Cir. 1997) (en banc). In
    Carriger, the allegedly exculpating witness had originally testified against
    the petitioner, then testified in a post-conviction proceeding that he, him-
    self, was the real murderer, then retracted the confession three weeks later.
    
    Id. at 471-72
    . By the time the petitioner made a Schlup actual innocence
    argument, the exculpating witness was unavailable to testify because he
    was dead. 
    Id. at 472-73
    . Nonetheless, the Carriger court deemed the con-
    fession credible—when neither the state court nor federal district court in
    the Schlup proceeding had witnessed it—and deem its subsequent retrac-
    tion incredible. 
    Id. at 473-76
    . Notably, the majority stated, “the fact that
    [the accusing witness] confessed without immunity and overwhelmingly
    against his own penal interest is a strong indicator of his reliability.” 
    Id. at 475
    . We respectfully suggest that our dissenting colleagues are being
    inconsistent when they criticize us for drawing the opposite inference with
    respect to a witness who thought he could recant, and possibly help his
    partner in crime, without any personal consequences.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                          16669
    Perhaps it is for this reason that our dissenting colleagues (and
    the original panel majority) would have us adopt the novel
    approach of simply accepting Edmonds’s affidavits at face
    value, declaring them to exculpate Smith, and proceeding to
    a hearing on his constitutional claims—a remedy with no sup-
    port in relevant precedent. The dissents’ (and the original
    panel majority’s) remedy goes well beyond the Schlup actual
    innocence excuse for procedural default. Instead, the dissent-
    ers (and the original Smith majority) appear to have fashioned
    an additional, independent excuse that opens the gateway for
    defendants alleging serious prosecutorial misconduct to pro-
    ceed to the merits of their cases without complying with
    AEDPA’s exhaustion requirements. That is not the law, and,
    left unchanged, could potentially open a gaping hole in
    AEDPA’s jurisdictional and exhaustion framework. It was
    that error in law, combined with the panel’s other miscon-
    structions of the Schlup gateway, not “the factual question
    whether the evidence does or does not support an affirmative
    defense,” Reinhardt, J., dis. op. at 16701, that required our en
    banc review. The Schlup gateway exists only for those who
    can demonstrate their actual innocence, which Smith cannot
    do under Oregon law.
    (c)   “Was not armed with a dangerous or deadly weapon”
    [10] The third element of the affirmative defense requires
    Smith to prove, by a preponderance of the evidence, that he
    “[w]as not armed with a dangerous or deadly weapon.” 
    Or. Rev. Stat. § 163.115
    (3)(c). We note that the retraction in both
    Further, we note that this is not a true “credibility finding” based on a
    lower court’s direct observation of a witness on the stand. It is quite the
    opposite, in fact—here, we evaluate potential testimony that no judge or
    jury has ever heard. It does not matter to our analysis whether the witness
    is actually telling the truth—the purpose of a credibility determination—
    but rather we care only whether all reasonable jurors would choose to
    believe the proffered testimony.
    16670                  SMITH v. BALDWIN
    of Edmonds’s affidavits is limited to his “sworn statement”
    but makes no reference to his testimony at Smith’s Sentencing
    Hearing or what he told his cellmate. Moreover, while some
    of the statements in the affidavit flatly contradict parts of his
    Sentencing Hearing testimony (for example, that “Mr. Smith
    did not bludgeon or otherwise strike Mr. Konzleman [sic] and
    . . . that Mr. Smith never entered the Konzleman’s [sic] bed-
    room, where the killing occurred”), it is completely silent
    about the rest of his statements. If a reasonable juror could
    somehow manage to believe every word in both Edmonds’s
    affidavits, he or she could still find much to believe in
    Edmonds’s Sentencing Hearing testimony that is not men-
    tioned or contradicted in either affidavit.
    [11] For example, at the Sentencing Hearing, Edmonds tes-
    tified that he found Smith holding the crowbar in the Konzel-
    mans’ bedroom, and that he shortly thereafter threatened Mr.
    Konzelman with it. While he has disavowed his statement that
    Smith was in the Konzelmans’ bedroom, he has not changed
    his story that Smith was holding the crowbar. A reasonable
    juror could still credit this part of Edmonds’s Sentencing
    Hearing testimony, and find that Smith, at some point in the
    evening, held the crowbar. A reasonable juror who found it as
    likely as not that Smith held the crowbar at some point in the
    evening would be compelled to find that Smith had failed to
    establish the third element of his affirmative defense, and find
    Smith guilty.
    (d)   “Had no reasonable ground to believe that [Edmonds]
    was armed with a dangerous or deadly weapon”
    [12] The fourth element of the affirmative defense requires
    Smith to show that he “[h]ad no reasonable ground to believe
    that any other participant was armed with a dangerous or
    deadly weapon.” 
    Or. Rev. Stat. § 163.115
    (3)(d). Even assum-
    ing that a reasonable juror really believed the core of
    Edmonds’s new story—that he, not Smith, was the true killer
    —the record demonstrates that such a juror would still con-
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                       16671
    clude that Smith had reason to believe that Edmonds was
    armed with a dangerous weapon, and thus that Smith’s affir-
    mative defense to felony murder fails.
    [13] It is undisputed that Emmett Konzelman died as a
    result of being beaten with a three-foot-long crowbar at the
    hands of either Smith or Edmonds. Assuming that Edmonds
    was the killer, we do not believe that all reasonable jurors
    would find by a preponderance of the evidence that Edmonds
    successfully concealed such a large, curve-ended weapon
    from Smith’s sight (three feet being almost the length of an
    average baseball bat) during the forty-five minutes that
    Edmonds and Smith were in the garage and burglarizing the
    home.
    It is undisputed that the crowbar came from the Konzel-
    mans’ garage. Smith and Edmonds were in the garage
    together planning their criminal enterprise for some time
    before entering the house. Although the garage was dark, the
    record suggests that Edmonds may have had a lighter and
    Smith a flashlight. Whatever the light source, the record indi-
    cates that Smith and Edmonds must have had sufficient light
    to identify various objects within the garage, since they found
    and removed from the garage, among other things, the hats
    they wore to disguise themselves, the rope, and the crowbar.
    If Edmonds located and removed the crowbar in the garage
    before entering the house, a reasonable juror could easily con-
    clude that Smith saw the crowbar at that time.
    A reasonable juror could find that Smith and Edmonds
    entered the house at or around the same time. In one account,
    Edmonds told police that he and Smith “masked ourselves
    with bandanas and . . . we went in the house.” In another
    statement, Edmonds stated that he and Smith were together in
    the living room immediately after entering the house. At
    Smith’s Sentencing Hearing, Edmonds testified that he
    entered the house first and Smith followed right behind him.12
    12
    At the Sentencing Hearing, Edmonds, contradicting his statement to
    the police, denied being near Smith during much of the burglary. A rea-
    16672                       SMITH v. BALDWIN
    Neither recantation addresses this issue. A reasonable juror
    would likely conclude that it would have been highly improb-
    able that Smith could have avoided seeing Edmonds carrying
    a three-foot crowbar, either when they entered the house at
    approximately the same time, or later while together in the
    house, especially when the light was turned on.
    The record also contains evidence that Smith had reason to
    know that Edmonds was armed with the crowbar when he was
    in the Konzelmans’ bedroom. Mrs. Konzelman testified that
    when she awoke, she saw the attacker standing next to the
    dresser in the bedroom while the other burglar briefly stood
    in the bedroom doorway, before proceeding down the hall-
    way. Mrs. Konzelman also testified that the attacker picked
    up the crowbar from the ground before he began striking Mr.
    Konzelman. Assuming Edmonds was the killer, a reasonable
    juror could conclude that Smith saw the crowbar in the bed-
    room, even if Edmonds was not holding it in his hand when
    Smith briefly stopped at the bedroom door before the attack.
    Furthermore, it is entirely plausible that Smith returned to the
    bedroom doorway when he heard the beating, or that he
    moved to a vantage point in the hallway from which he was
    not visible to Mrs. Konzelman but could still see the attack.
    None of these scenarios is contradicted by the evidence,
    including Edmonds’s two recantation affidavits. Based on this
    evidence, a reasonable juror could find that Smith had reason
    to know that Edmonds was armed when in the bedroom where
    he initiated the fatal attack.
    sonable juror who thought that Edmonds was “attempting to pin the mur-
    der on his partner in the robbery,” Reinhardt, J., dis. op. at 16702, might
    conclude that the earlier version of the story, where the two were together
    in the house, is the true statement. It would only be natural that a burglar,
    trying to exculpate himself, would lie to place as much distance as possi-
    ble between himself and his accomplice (and, by extension, the killing).
    It would make little sense, by contrast, to lie about the two being in the
    same room together when they were not.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                   16673
    In addition, Smith admitted that he took a rope from the
    garage and brought it into the Konzelman residence. The rope
    was later found on the bedroom floor and the crowbar was
    discovered in the kitchen. Accordingly, even assuming that
    Edmonds carried the crowbar and Smith the rope, the ultimate
    placement of the objects permits the reasonable inference that
    Smith and Edmonds crossed paths while Edmonds had the
    crowbar and Smith the rope, or that Edmonds took the rope
    from Smith at some point before the beating.
    Smith also entered a plea of no contest to the robbery
    charge, which alleged that “the said defendant(s) . . . did use
    a dangerous weapon, to-wit: a crowbar . . . .” It makes no dif-
    ference whether Smith’s plea meant that Edmonds used the
    crowbar (as opposed to Smith); it constituted an admission
    that he knew the crowbar was used.
    [14] Judge Reinhardt’s dissent criticizes us for “relying
    almost entirely on Edmonds’s past statements” in determining
    what really occurred that night. Reinhardt, J., dis. op. at
    16695. Our colleagues are mistaken. We conclude only that
    at least one reasonable juror—even one who believes
    Edmonds’s new story that Smith did not wield the crowbar—
    could still credit Edmonds’s earlier statements on more ancil-
    lary matters, even in the light of contradictory contemporane-
    ous testimony. While it might be reasonable to infer that a
    “probable killer . . . attempting to pin the murder on his part-
    ner in the robbery,” Reinhardt, J., dis. op. at 16702, would lie
    about who actually crushed Mr. Konzelman’s skull with a
    crowbar, a reasonable juror might nonetheless believe that
    Edmonds was originally telling the truth about such things as
    whether they entered the house together or separately—and,
    if Edmonds testified differently today, that he would be lying
    now only to exculpate his friend.
    But, as Judge Reinhardt’s dissent notes, Edmonds would
    not be alone—Smith himself could testify about the circum-
    stances of the crime. His 1992 deposition testimony in his ini-
    16674                  SMITH v. BALDWIN
    tial post-conviction proceeding, however, would undermine
    any current claim that he was unaware that Edmonds had a
    crowbar with him in the house. One of Smith’s habeas claims
    was that trial counsel had failed to properly pursue and advise
    him about possible defenses. At the outset of the deposition,
    counsel for the State Attorney General explained to Smith that
    “[t]his is my opportunity to clarify what you are complaining
    about in your petition.” When asked “what defenses do you
    think that you had to this crime,” Smith stated that trial coun-
    sel should have “raised the evidence” that “Edmonds did it
    and not me.” When Smith was asked whether there were any
    other defenses, Smith said he was not “legally adapted” to
    respond. State counsel then offered to let Smith consult with
    his lawyer:
    Well, do you need to talk to your attorney to get
    some idea of some other legal defenses that you
    think he should have raised because this is the only
    chance you’re going to get to tell me what you . . . .
    The parties went off the record and Smith consulted with his
    attorney. After noting for the record that Smith had consulted
    with his counsel, the State attorney asked again, “What other
    defenses do you think trial counsel should have raised on your
    behalf?” Smith responded:
    A.   He should have raised the defense that what
    happened that night was not intended to happen.
    Q.   You mean Mr. Edmonds didn’t intend to kill
    those people?
    A.   Yeah.
    Smith’s counsel clarified, “I think what he means is that he
    [Smith] didn’t intend to kill anybody.” State counsel then
    interjected, “But he told me earlier that Mr. Edmonds did the
    killing, not him;” whereupon Smith further explained, “Well,
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                   16675
    like I didn’t know that he was going to do it.” Smith was
    given additional opportunities to raise other defenses his trial
    attorney should have raised, but not once during this deposi-
    tion did he state that he had no reason to believe that
    Edmonds had the crowbar.
    If Smith was unaware that Edmonds had the crowbar—as
    opposed to being unaware Edmonds had the intent to use the
    crowbar to kill—he likely would have said so. That he did not
    say so when given ample opportunity leads to the conclusion
    either that he knew that Edmonds had a crowbar or that Smith
    himself went into the bedroom with the crowbar. Throughout
    the plea colloquy, two-day Sentencing Hearing, and his 1992
    deposition, Smith never made the simple statement that he did
    not know and had no reason to believe a crowbar had been
    brought into the Konzelmans’ bedroom. The reason for this is
    obvious.
    [15] In sum, even assuming that, as a result of prosecutorial
    misconduct, Edmonds would be entitled to use immunity at an
    evidentiary hearing at which he would testify in accordance
    with his recantations that he, not Smith, held the crowbar, and
    even assuming that, notwithstanding his former sworn testi-
    mony, the jury believed him, it is more likely than not that a
    reasonable juror would conclude that Smith failed to establish
    by a preponderance of the evidence that he “[h]ad no reason-
    able ground to believe that any other participant was armed
    with a dangerous or deadly weapon.” 
    Or. Rev. Stat. § 163.115
    (3)(d). Even if Edmonds could convince a reason-
    able juror that he, not Smith, was the killer, that reasonable
    juror would still conclude that Smith had reason to know that
    Edmonds was armed with a three-foot-long crowbar during
    the burglary. Because a reasonable juror would conclude that
    Smith failed to prove this element of his affirmative defense
    by a preponderance of the evidence, Smith cannot pass
    through the Schlup gateway.
    16676                        SMITH v. BALDWIN
    2.    Cause and Prejudice
    Although Smith has failed to show actual innocence under
    Schlup, he can still overcome his procedural default if he
    makes “an adequate showing of cause and prejudice” relating
    to his failure to exhaust his state court remedies. Strickler, 
    527 U.S. at 282
    . To make this showing, Smith must “demonstrate
    cause for the default and actual prejudice as a result of the
    alleged violation of federal law.” Coleman, 
    501 U.S. at 750
    .
    Smith argues that his procedural default is excused based on
    cause and prejudice because (1) his state post-conviction
    counsel was ineffective, and (2) the prosecution committed
    Brady error by wrongfully withholding Edmonds’s polygraph
    results. Both arguments fail.
    Smith argues that cause exists to excuse his procedural
    default because his first post-conviction counsel abandoned
    his role as Smith’s legal representative by failing to depose
    Smith’s trial counsel, the trial prosecutor, and the jail doctor.
    At the first post-conviction trial proceedings, the state intro-
    duced affidavits from Smith’s trial counsel and the trial prose-
    cutor, and Smith argues that his post-conviction counsel’s
    decision not to question these witnesses in a prior deposition
    constituted ineffective assistance. In response to the court’s
    questioning, Smith’s post-conviction counsel explained that
    he did not depose these witnesses because they would not pro-
    vide any assistance to Smith’s case. He stated that “it would
    be to Mr. Smith’s detriment to question these people further
    because, in my opinion, they would only further damage his
    case rather than help.” Smith argues that his counsel’s inac-
    tion prevented Smith from properly presenting his substantive
    post-conviction claims in state court,13 thus constituting cause
    for his procedural default.
    13
    In his first state post-conviction petition, Smith alleged (1) ineffective
    assistance of counsel because his trial lawyer failed to properly advise him
    of potential defenses and “hounded” Smith into pleading no contest, and
    (2) the violation of his due process rights because Edmonds’s plea bargain
    wrongfully exposed Smith to “greater consequences for his acts than are
    legally justifiable” and because Smith was on drugs when he entered his
    plea, thus rendering it unknowing and involuntary.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                         16677
    In order to establish cause for a procedural default, a peti-
    tioner must demonstrate that the default is due to an external
    objective factor that “ ‘cannot fairly be attributed to him.’ ”
    Manning, 
    224 F.3d at 1133
     (quoting Coleman, 
    501 U.S. at 753
    ). Because “[t]here is no constitutional right to an attorney
    in state post-conviction proceedings,” Coleman, 
    501 U.S. at 752
    , attorney ineffectiveness “in the post-conviction process
    is not considered cause for the purposes of excusing the pro-
    cedural default at that stage,” Manning, 
    224 F.3d at 1133
    . As
    the Supreme Court has established, counsel acts as the peti-
    tioner’s agent and thus any attorney error in post-conviction
    proceedings is generally attributable to the petitioner himself.
    See Coleman, 
    501 U.S. at 752-53
    .
    [16] Smith seeks to avoid this rule by arguing that his post-
    conviction counsel’s failure to depose the relevant witnesses
    resulted in counsel abandoning Smith, which qualifies as an
    external objective factor that caused Smith’s failure to exhaust
    his state remedies. See 
    id. at 754
    . Although Smith voiced his
    disapproval of his post-conviction counsel’s strategic deci-
    sions, he has failed to show that those decisions rose to the
    level of an external objective factor causing the procedural
    default. The alleged errors of his attorney in the first state
    post-conviction trial proceedings did not prevent Smith from
    thereafter raising his substantive post-conviction claims with
    the Oregon Court of Appeals and the Oregon Supreme Court.
    See Custer v. Hill, 
    378 F.3d 968
    , 974-75 (9th Cir. 2004)
    (holding that a federal habeas petitioner could not rely on
    state post-conviction attorney errors to overcome procedural
    default when the petitioner did not preserve the substantive
    claims by presenting them pro se to the Oregon Supreme
    Court).14 When the state post-conviction trial court denied
    14
    Smith’s reliance on our decision in Manning v. Foster, 
    224 F.3d 1129
    (9th Cir. 2000), to establish cause based on attorney errors in the post-
    conviction process is misplaced. In Manning, we held that a petitioner
    could excuse his procedural default when post-conviction counsel errors,
    “though not constitutionally defective, were not attributable to him
    because they were both unauthorized and tainted by a conflict of interest.”
    
    224 F.3d at 1135
     (emphasis added). Smith has not alleged that a conflict
    of interest caused the ineffective assistance of his post-conviction counsel.
    16678                   SMITH v. BALDWIN
    Smith’s request for new counsel, he elected to challenge that
    decision alone on appeal, rather than also challenge the denial
    of his substantive state post-conviction claims. Smith’s failure
    to exhaust his state court remedies was thus independent of
    any alleged errors committed by Smith’s post-conviction trial
    counsel. Therefore, Smith’s allegation of ineffective assis-
    tance of counsel during his first state post-conviction trial
    does not constitute cause sufficient to excuse his procedural
    default, and we need not address whether he has shown preju-
    dice with respect to that claim.
    Next, while Smith procedurally defaulted on his Brady
    claim by raising it for the first time in his federal habeas peti-
    tion, he argues that there is cause and prejudice to excuse the
    default because the state wrongfully withheld the results of
    Edmonds’s polygraph examination. The results of that exami-
    nation, in which Edmonds stated that Smith killed Emmett
    Konzelman, were inconclusive. The polygraph examiner nev-
    ertheless gave his opinion that Edmonds had answered the
    questions truthfully and the state followed through with its
    plea offer to Edmonds. Smith requested a copy of the results
    immediately, but the state refused to divulge them. Smith
    claims that he assumed that Edmonds passed the polygraph
    because it was an express condition of the plea deal offered
    to Edmonds. When Edmonds’s second recantation affidavit
    revealed that the results of the polygraph examination were
    inconclusive, Smith again requested the results, and the state
    finally gave a copy to Smith while his federal habeas petition
    was pending in the district court. Smith contends that the
    state’s withholding of the polygraph results for so long consti-
    tutes cause and prejudice to excuse the procedural default of
    his Brady claim.
    Even assuming that Smith could show cause for the proce-
    dural default of his Brady claim, he has failed to demonstrate
    any “prejudice as a result of the alleged violation of federal
    law . . . .” Coleman, 
    501 U.S. at 750
    . Under Brady, the prose-
    cution may not withhold any evidence that is material and
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                  16679
    favorable to the accused. Brady, 
    373 U.S. at 87-88
    ; United
    States v. Jernigan, 
    492 F.3d 1050
    , 1053-54 (9th Cir. 2007)
    (en banc). “ ‘[T]he evidence at issue must be favorable to the
    accused, either because it is exculpatory, or because it is
    impeaching; that evidence must have been suppressed by the
    State, either willfully or inadvertently; and prejudice must
    have ensued.’ ” Hovey v. Ayers, 
    458 F.3d 892
    , 916 (9th Cir.
    2006) (quoting Banks v. Dretke, 
    540 U.S. 668
    , 691 (2004)).
    Prejudice ensues if the evidence that is withheld is consid-
    ered “material.” 
    Id.
     Evidence is material under Brady if there
    is a “reasonable probability” that the outcome would have
    been different if the prosecution had not withheld the evi-
    dence. Jernigan, 
    492 F.3d at
    1053 (citing Kyles v. Whitley,
    
    514 U.S. 419
    , 434 (1995)). Generally, the test of materiality
    is whether the evidence “undermines confidence in the out-
    come of the trial.” United States v. Bagley, 
    473 U.S. 667
    , 678
    (1985) (emphasis added). When the accused enters a plea
    rather than proceeding to trial, however, materiality is deter-
    mined by “whether there is a reasonable probability that but
    for the failure to disclose the Brady material, the defendant
    would have refused to plead and would have gone to trial.”
    Sanchez v. United States, 
    50 F.3d 1448
    , 1454 (9th Cir. 1995).
    [17] Under these standards, the results of Edmonds’s poly-
    graph examination were not material, and thus the state’s
    delay in revealing them was not prejudicial to Smith. In the
    Oregon Circuit Court, where Smith entered his no contest
    plea, the results of polygraph examinations are inadmissible
    because they are “inherently prejudicial.” State v. Terry, 
    37 P.3d 157
    , 165 (Or. 2001); see also State v. Lyon, 
    744 P.2d 231
    , 232 (Or. 1987) (holding that polygraph test results are
    inadmissible in Oregon courts even if the parties stipulate as
    to their admissibility). Because they are inadmissible in Ore-
    gon courts, the results of Edmonds’s polygraph examination
    do not qualify as “evidence” for Brady purposes, let alone
    “material evidence.” Wood v. Bartholomew, 
    516 U.S. 1
    , 6
    (1995) (per curiam). Thus, it is not reasonably probable that
    16680                 SMITH v. BALDWIN
    the immediate disclosure of the polygraph results would have
    influenced Smith’s decision to plead no contest rather than
    proceed to trial because Smith “could have made no mention
    of them either during argument or while questioning witness-
    es” or at any other point in the trial. 
    Id.
     Therefore, we find
    that, even assuming that Smith could demonstrate cause, he
    cannot show prejudice based on the state’s delay in revealing
    the results of Edmonds’s polygraph examination because
    those results are inadmissible in Oregon court. Accordingly,
    Smith cannot overcome the procedural default of his Brady
    claim.
    IV.   Conclusion
    We hold that Smith procedurally defaulted the claims in his
    federal habeas petition, and we cannot excuse his default
    because he has failed to demonstrate actual innocence or
    cause and prejudice. Accordingly, we do not reach the merits
    of Smith’s petition.
    We vacate Smith v. Baldwin, 
    466 F.3d 805
     (9th Cir. 2006),
    reh’g en banc granted, 
    482 F.3d 1156
     (9th Cir. 2007), and we
    affirm the decision of the district court.
    AFFIRMED.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN           16681
    Volume 2 of 2
    16682                  SMITH v. BALDWIN
    FISHER, Circuit Judge, with whom SCHROEDER, W.
    FLETCHER, and PAEZ, Circuit Judges, join, concurring:
    Although I concur in the result the majority reaches, I write
    separately because I do not adopt all of its reasoning. Specifi-
    cally, I would affirm the district court’s decision on narrower
    grounds, relying solely on the determination that Smith can-
    not overcome the high standard set by Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
     (1995), with respect to element (d) of Oregon’s
    affirmative defense to felony murder. Thus, Smith cannot pass
    through the “gateway . . . to have his otherwise barred consti-
    tutional claim[s] considered on the merits.” 
    Id. at 315
     (inter-
    nal citations and quotation marks omitted).
    I agree we should assume there was prosecutorial miscon-
    duct, generally for the reasons spelled out in Judge Rein-
    hardt’s and Judge Thomas’ dissents. I am not persuaded,
    however, that the facts of this case warrant skipping over the
    Schlup gateway to remedy this misconduct. Smith’s problem,
    even with Edmonds as a now-exculpatory witness, is his
    inability to demonstrate that, on the record as a whole, no rea-
    sonable juror would have concluded that he proved all the
    necessary elements of Oregon’s affirmative defense to felony
    murder.
    I focus on the fourth element, which requires the defendant
    to prove that he “[h]ad no reasonable ground to believe that
    any other participant was armed with a dangerous or deadly
    weapon.” 
    Or. Rev. Stat. § 163.115
    (3)(d). The plain language
    of Edmonds’ affidavits, in which he recants his previous state-
    ments that Smith killed Mr. Konzelman, does not satisfy
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                  16683
    Smith’s burden with regard to this element. At most, the affi-
    davits would establish that Smith was not the real killer, but
    they do not resolve the separate question of whether Smith
    “had a reasonable ground to believe” that Edmonds was
    armed before he beat Mr. Konzelman with the crowbar.
    To evaluate how a jury would likely resolve that question,
    our Schlup review “must consider all the evidence, old and
    new, incriminating and exculpatory, without regard to
    whether it would necessarily be admitted under rules of
    admissibility that would govern at trial.” House v. Bell, 
    126 S. Ct. 2064
    , 2077 (2006) (internal citations and quotation
    marks omitted). Although this is a closer question than the
    majority indicates, I ultimately join its conclusion that Smith
    has not met his burden of proof to warrant passing through
    Schlup’s actual innocence gateway.
    To characterize Edmonds’ statements as “occasionally”
    contradictory is an understatement. Op. 16645. As Judge
    Bybee described in his dissent from the three-judge panel
    decision in this case, “Edmonds has given many accounts of
    that evening, which together encompass nearly every possible
    way that the burglary and murder might have occurred.”
    Smith v. Baldwin, 
    466 F.3d 805
    , 831 (9th Cir. 2006) (Bybee,
    J., dissenting), reh’g granted, 
    482 F.3d 1156
     (9th Cir. 2007).
    For the purpose of Smith’s element (d) argument, the discrep-
    ancies regarding the Smith’s and Edmonds’ respective
    comings-and-goings into the Konzelmans’ house are particu-
    larly pertinent.
    At different times, Edmonds has alternatively said that: (1)
    Smith returned to the garage to obtain the rope and the crow-
    bar after he and Edmonds had entered the house; (2) Smith
    already had the crowbar in his hands when they entered the
    house for the first time, and Smith returned to the garage only
    to get the rope; or (3) Edmonds didn’t “have any idea where
    the crowbar came in at,” because the first time he saw it was
    in the Konzelmans’ bedroom. In each re-telling of this story,
    16684                   SMITH v. BALDWIN
    there have been periods when Edmonds was alone in either
    the house or the garage while Smith was in the other location,
    and the order of who followed whom into the house has often
    changed. Depending on the time-line one accepts, Edmonds
    could have entered the house either before or after Smith, and
    removed the crowbar from the garage and carried it into the
    house without Smith’s knowledge. See SR Dissent at 16696
    n.10. A reasonable juror could adopt this interpretation and
    conclude that Smith had no reason to know about the crowbar
    before Edmonds used it to beat Mr. Konzelman.
    Under Schlup, however, Smith must prove that it is more
    likely than not that no reasonable juror would conclude that
    Smith had a reasonable ground to believe that Edmonds was
    armed. See, e.g., House, 
    126 S. Ct. at 2077
    ; Carriger v. Stew-
    art, 
    132 F.3d 463
    , 478 (9th Cir. 1997). Smith cannot satisfy
    this high standard. Despite — or perhaps because of — the
    inconsistencies, a reasonable juror most likely would find that
    (1) there was a period when Edmonds and Smith were in the
    same location when Edmonds had the crowbar before he used
    it, and that (2) Edmonds could not conceal the three-foot
    weapon from Smith during this time — indeed, that he had no
    reason to do so. Because it is more likely than not that a rea-
    sonable juror would conclude that Smith had a reasonable
    ground to believe that Edmonds was armed, Smith cannot
    meet his burden with respect to element (d) of Oregon’s affir-
    mative defense to felony murder.
    In reaching this conclusion, I do not feel it useful to specu-
    late on the contents of Edmonds’ hypothetical testimony if he
    were to testify at a hypothetical evidentiary hearing. I submit
    this is largely irrelevant to our inquiry given the nature of the
    cumulative record. Even if Edmonds testified that Smith did
    not know that he was carrying the crowbar, we must “assess
    how reasonable jurors would react to the overall, newly sup-
    plemented record.” House, 
    126 S. Ct. at 2078
     (emphasis
    added). “If new evidence so requires, this may include consid-
    eration of ‘the credibility of the witnesses presented at trial.’ ”
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                   16685
    
    Id.
     (internal citations omitted). We must evaluate how a jury
    would respond to all of Edmonds’ statements, not just his
    hypothetical, exculpatory version. Given the numerous incon-
    sistencies and contradictions in Edmonds’ various accounts, it
    is unlikely that reasonable jurors would find Edmonds’ new
    testimony sufficiently credible to rule out that Smith knew
    about the crowbar before Mr. Konzelman’s beating. See
    Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 330
     (explaining that where “newly pres-
    ented evidence may [ ] call into question the credibility of the
    witnesses presented at trial,” then “the habeas court may have
    to make some credibility assessments”). Therefore, viewed in
    the totality of all the circumstances, Smith cannot show that
    more likely than not, no reasonable juror would conclude that
    he had a reasonable ground to believe that Edmonds was
    armed. Consequently, regardless of Edmonds’ hypothetical
    testimony, I conclude that Smith does not meet Schlup’s
    actual-innocence gateway standard with respect to element (d)
    of Oregon’s affirmative defense to felony murder.
    REINHARDT, Circuit Judge, with whom THOMAS, Circuit
    Judge, joins, dissenting:
    Reading the majority opinion, one could hardly discern that
    this appeal is about a case of egregious prosecutorial
    misconduct—threatening a witness with execution if he testi-
    fies favorably to the defendant. Instead, the majority engages
    in a remarkable and creative act of hypothetical appellate fact-
    finding and, on the basis of the testimony it believes might
    have been given, concludes that the witness’s testimony and
    that of others, whatever that testimony might have been,
    would be of no consequence. Given that the threatened wit-
    ness was the only person other than the petitioner who had
    direct knowledge of the critical aspects of the events of the
    evening in question and the only person other than the peti-
    tioner who was capable of testifying to them, it is not surpris-
    ing that the prosecutor failed to anticipate that any court, let
    16686                     SMITH v. BALDWIN
    alone an en banc appellate court, would determine without his
    testimony having been adduced that whatever he said would
    be of no significance, and that regardless of what his testi-
    mony might be an evidentiary hearing could not have pro-
    duced any material facts. Had the prosecutor realized that our
    court could have reached such an unprecedented result, he
    most surely would not have felt compelled to engage in so
    extreme an act of prosecutorial misconduct. He would have
    let the witness testify instead of threatening to have him exe-
    cuted.
    I.
    In this case, Smith’s co-defendant, in order to avoid murder
    charges and obtain a light sentence, turned state’s evidence
    and agreed to swear that Smith, an accomplice to the robbery,
    was the person who killed the victim. The facts, however,
    showed that the co-defendant, himself, was more likely the
    killer.1 Nevertheless, the co-defendant’s plan succeeded and
    he was out of prison within three years of his plea agreement,
    while Smith, who, according to the evidence, most likely
    assaulted no one, pled no contest to felony murder in order to
    avoid trial on a capital murder charge. Following his plea,
    Smith received a life sentence.
    The plea arrangement in this case was not unique. The par-
    ticipant in criminal activity who confesses first and fingers his
    fellow wrongdoer frequently receives a far lighter sentence,
    even though he may have been the primary culprit and com-
    mitted the more egregious act. As a result, his hapless asso-
    ciate who played a lesser role often receives the harsher
    punishment—sometimes even a death sentence.2 See, e.g.,
    1
    See Smith v. Baldwin, 
    466 F.3d 805
    , 814-17 (9th Cir. 2006), reh’g en
    banc granted 
    482 F.3d 1156
     (9th Cir. 2007).
    2
    The Supreme Court has recognized the inherent unreliability of an
    accusation made by a defendant against his co-defendant. As the Court
    explained in Lilly v. Virginia, 
    527 U.S. 116
     (1999),
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                         16687
    Coleman v. McCormick, 
    874 F.2d 1280
     (9th Cir. 1989) (en
    banc).
    What is unique about this case is that when Edmonds, the
    probable killer, attempted, seven years later, to recant and to
    testify that Smith was not the murderer, the state prosecutor
    succeeded in preventing an evidentiary hearing by threatening
    to seek the death penalty against Edmonds if he testified
    favorably to Smith. At the time of the threat, Smith had filed
    his federal habeas petition asserting that he had not committed
    a violent act against anyone and that, under Oregon law, he
    was actually innocent of felony murder. Accordingly, he
    asserted, he was entitled under Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
    (1995), to bypass his state procedural default and present his
    claim that his conviction of felony murder was obtained in
    violation of his constitutional rights.3 In seeking to bypass the
    procedural default, Smith simply sought to have the federal
    court examine those constitutional claims on the merits.
    Not surprisingly, in response to the state’s threat to have
    him executed, Edmonds, the likely killer, invoked his Fifth
    Amendment privilege and refused to testify. As a result, the
    district court found that a Schlup evidentiary hearing would
    when one person accuses another of a crime under circumstances
    in which the declarant stands to gain by inculpating another, the
    accusation is presumptively suspect and must be subjected to the
    scrutiny of cross-examination. . . . ‘Due to his strong motivation
    to implicate the defendant and to exonerate himself, a codefen-
    dant’s statements about what the defendant said or did are less
    credible than ordinary hearsay evidence.’
    Id. at 132 (quoting Bruton v. United States, 
    391 U.S. 123
    , 141 (1968)
    (White, J., dissenting)). Despite this admonition from our highest court,
    criminal convictions are still obtained on the basis of co-defendant accusa-
    tions with great frequency.
    3
    Smith also pled guilty to the robbery, but in his habeas petition he did
    not deny his guilt of that offense and did not seek to set aside that convic-
    tion or his sentence on that count.
    16688                        SMITH v. BALDWIN
    be a “pointless exercise” and concluded that, without the
    admitted killer’s4 exculpatory testimony, Smith could not
    establish actual innocence in a manner sufficient to overcome
    his procedural default and to allow him to proceed on the
    merits of his constitutional claims.
    In short, the effect of the state’s prosecutorial misconduct5
    —threatening to seek the death penalty against Smith’s key
    witness if he testified favorably to Smith—was to deny Smith
    the opportunity to develop the facts necessary to establish his
    Schlup claim. Because of the state’s misconduct, Smith could
    not overcome the procedural barrier to his receiving a hearing
    on the merits of the alleged constitutional violations. Put dif-
    ferently, the state’s threat to have Edmonds executed elimi-
    nated the crucial—indeed, the only—evidentiary process that
    would have allowed Smith to pass through the Schlup gate-
    way and, as a result, present his constitutional claims in fed-
    eral court.
    4
    Although Edmonds never formally confessed to having killed Konzel-
    man, he twice stated affirmatively, in his affidavits, that Smith was not the
    killer. Given that Smith and Edmonds were the only two intruders in the
    house when the attack occurred, the only reasonable inference from
    Edmonds’s absolution of Smith is that Edmonds himself was the mur-
    derer. Indeed, as the state itself acknowledged, “Edmonds has implicitly
    admitted that he, rather than [Smith], was the killer, [even though] he has
    never directly admitted as much.”
    5
    There can be little doubt that the state’s actions qualify as prosecutorial
    misconduct. As the panel opinion explained:
    Threatening a potential witness for the defense with execution
    constitutes prosecutorial misconduct far more coercive than that
    present in any reported case of which we are aware. The cases in
    which courts have considered the prosecution’s threats to charge
    witnesses with perjury or other criminal offenses, have all
    involved the possibility of far less serious punishment. . . . Here,
    the prosecution’s unprecedented threat to seek the death penalty
    against Edmonds if he testified that Smith was not the killer was
    unquestionably coercive and constituted substantial interference
    with Edmonds’s decision whether to testify.
    Smith, 466 F.3d at 823 (citations omitted; emphasis in original).
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                    16689
    II.
    The primary question before us is thus simply: what does
    a federal court do when the state, by an act of gross prosecu-
    torial misconduct, interferes with a habeas petitioner’s ability
    to make a showing of his actual innocence in a manner that
    would allow the federal court to excuse his state procedural
    default? It is not a question we have faced before, nor a situa-
    tion we are likely to face often. The majority seeks to avoid
    answering the question by asserting that even had an evidenti-
    ary hearing been held, Smith could not have proved his inno-
    cence. Aside from the fact that this is somewhat like saying,
    “We don’t need a trial because we know that the defendant is
    guilty,” there is a fundamental flaw in the majority’s
    approach. My colleagues do not evaluate Smith’s claim on the
    basis of what evidence could have been adduced at an eviden-
    tiary hearing. Instead, they base their decision on what
    Edmonds said years ago, shortly after the killing, when he
    was trying to shift the blame to Smith so that he would not be
    subject to a lengthy term of imprisonment himself. The major-
    ity’s mode of analysis obviously ignores the basic point that
    Edmonds has filed affidavits retracting his earlier testimony
    and is now, in offering to exonerate Smith, purporting to tell
    the truth for the first time. Whether he did so shortly after the
    killing or whether his current story is true can be determined
    only when he is placed under oath and is subject to cross-
    examination by both sides—in short, at an evidentiary hear-
    ing.
    Let me emphasize that the record is clear. As the district
    court found, “The Linn County prosecutor’s office . . . warned
    Edmond’s [sic] counsel that the district attorney would seek
    the death penalty if Edmonds testified . . .” (emphasis added).
    There can be no doubt about the prosecution’s goal in making
    that threat. Critically, the prosecution did not threaten to seek
    the death penalty against Edmonds if he turned out to be the
    true killer. Rather, it threatened Edmonds with execution only
    if he testified at Smith’s evidentiary hearing. That the state
    16690                   SMITH v. BALDWIN
    dropped its threat against Edmonds as soon as he declined to
    testify—that it never investigated his statements or sought to
    determine whether his recantation might be true—makes
    crystal-clear the state’s purpose in threatening Edmonds with
    the death penalty: to prevent Edmonds from testifying at
    Smith’s hearing and exculpating Smith of felony murder.
    The question we now face, as I have explained above, is
    how should we consider Smith’s Schlup claim given that the
    state’s misconduct has rendered an evidentiary hearing a
    “pointless exercise.” The majority’s solution is to imagine a
    hypothetical evidentiary hearing at which Edmonds would
    testify, having been granted use immunity by the state, “that
    he, rather than Smith, killed Mr. Konzelman.” Maj. op. at
    16660. The majority then determines that Edmonds’s hypo-
    thetical testimony that Smith was not the true killer would not
    be credible and that, even if it were credible, it would not ben-
    efit Smith because Smith would still have to prove that he
    himself never held the crowbar nor had a reasonable ground
    to believe that Edmonds had it. Relying almost entirely on
    Edmonds’s prior self-serving and ambiguous statements made
    when he was trying to shift the blame to Smith to avoid capi-
    tal murder charges himself, the majority holds that Smith
    could not meet his burden of proving Schlup actual innocence
    because at least one reasonable juror would still find Smith
    guilty of felony murder.
    The principal fallacy in the majority’s approach is apparent
    on its face. It disregards the historic and constitutionally guar-
    anteed system under which American courts determine the
    facts. A full and fair hearing at which Edmonds was permitted
    to testify is the only way that Smith could have established
    the factual elements required to make out his defense to fel-
    ony murder, and thus his Schlup actual innocence claim. By
    conducting an evidentiary hearing we could have determined
    whether Edmonds’s initial story or his current affidavits were
    true. In the absence of that hearing, it is impossible to deter-
    mine what Edmonds might have said or what Smith might
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                   16691
    have established. Had a hearing been held, Smith’s lawyer,
    who presumably understood the elements of the affirmative
    defense that Smith was required to establish, could have
    explored those elements fully in questioning Edmonds. Smith,
    presumably, would have also testified at the hearing. His testi-
    mony, like Edmonds’s, would likely have provided significant
    details regarding the events that took place in the garage, the
    timing of the two men’s entrance into the Konzelman home,
    and the subsequent events inside the home, all of which could
    have established definitively whether Smith had held the
    crowbar or, if he had not, whether he had reason to believe
    that Edmonds was armed with it. Both men would have been
    subject to rigorous cross-examination. Perhaps their testimony
    on direct would not have held up. Perhaps it would not have
    been sufficient to allow Smith to meet the five-part test neces-
    sary to establish an affirmative defense to felony murder
    under Oregon law. At least a fair and full hearing would have
    been held and a judge could have ruled on the two defen-
    dants’ credibility and assessed the facts. We will never know
    what the results of a Schlup hearing would have been, how-
    ever, because the prosecution’s blatant misconduct rendered
    such a hearing impossible.
    The majority’s unprecedented attempt to construct a hypo-
    thetical evidentiary hearing as a substitute for an actual
    hearing—the one the prosecution prevented from being held
    —fails to fill the gaping holes in the record created by the
    state’s unconscionable interference. In the majority’s mythical
    hearing, Edmonds states one thing only: that he, not Smith,
    was the actual killer. In that construct, Edmonds does not pro-
    vide details about the night in question. He does not say
    whether Smith ever held the crowbar nor does he provide
    facts that might indicate whether Smith had reason to believe
    that Edmonds had the crowbar. In sum, the majority’s con-
    struct assumes that Edmonds’s affidavits—which do not
    address Smith’s affirmative defense but state only that Smith
    was not the killer—comprise the full scope of what
    16692                       SMITH v. BALDWIN
    Edmonds’s testimony would have been had an evidentiary
    hearing taken place.
    Such an assumption is entirely unreasonable. The purpose
    of Edmonds’s affidavits was not to establish all the elements
    of Smith’s affirmative defense. Edmonds sought only to
    inform the interested parties, including the state, that his state-
    ments inculpating Smith seven years earlier, made in
    exchange for lenient treatment, were false. The affidavits do
    not purport to set forth any of the factual circumstances sur-
    rounding the killing or to describe fully the events of the eve-
    ning in question.6 Accordingly, it makes little sense to
    assume, as the majority’s construct does, that, had an eviden-
    tiary hearing been held, Edmonds would have merely
    repeated the statements in his affidavits, and nothing more.
    Rather, in the absence of specific knowledge as to what
    Edmonds and Smith would have said had the state’s miscon-
    duct not rendered an evidentiary hearing futile, an approach
    far more consistent with our constitutional principles of due
    process is for the court to presume that the evidence precluded
    by the state’s misconduct would have materially benefitted
    Smith with respect to his Schlup claim, and, accordingly, to
    allow him to present his constitutional claims on the merits.
    Such a presumption is hardly unusual in civil litigation.7
    “Generally, a trier of fact may draw an adverse inference from
    the destruction of evidence relevant to a case.” Akiona v.
    United States, 
    938 F.2d 158
    , 161 (9th Cir. 1991); see also 2
    Kenneth S. Broun et al., McCormick on Evidence § 265 (6th
    ed. 2006). As we stated in Akiona,
    6
    Indeed, the majority’s criticism of those affidavits for their incomplete-
    ness, see maj. op. at 16671 (stating that “[n]either recantation addresses
    th[e] issue” whether Smith and Edmonds entered the house at the same
    time); id. at 16672 (noting that neither of Edmonds’s affidavits addresses
    whether Smith could have seen the crowbar when he paused briefly at the
    bedroom door), only underscores this point.
    7
    A petition for habeas corpus, of course, initiates a civil proceeding.
    Mayle v. Felix, 
    545 U.S. 644
    , 654 n.4 (2005).
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                     16693
    The adverse inference is based on two rationales,
    one evidentiary and one not. The evidentiary ratio-
    nale is nothing more than the common sense obser-
    vation that a party who has notice that a document
    is relevant to litigation and who proceeds to destroy
    the document is more likely to have been threatened
    by the document than is a party in the same position
    who does not destroy the document. . . .
    The other rationale for the inference has to do
    with its prophylactic and punitive effects. Allowing
    the trier of fact to draw the inference presumably
    deters parties from destroying relevant evidence
    before it can be introduced at trial.
    Akiona, 
    938 F.2d at 161
     (quoting Nation-Wide Check Corp.,
    Inc. v. Forest Hills Distribs., Inc., 
    692 F.2d 214
    , 218 (1st Cir.
    1982)). Both rationales apply equally strongly to the state’s
    willful intimidation of a critical witness with the result that he
    refuses to testify at a habeas petitioner’s Schlup evidentiary
    hearing and thus renders the hearing, in the words of the dis-
    trict court, a “pointless exercise.” First, the state’s interference
    with Edmonds’s willingness to testify raises the obvious infer-
    ence that the state was “likely to have been threatened by,”
    Akiona, 
    938 F.2d at 161
     (quoting Nation-Wide, 
    692 F.2d at 218
    ), Edmonds’s testimony—why else would the prosecution
    have gone to such unconscionable lengths to prevent him
    from testifying? Put differently, if, as the majority suggests,
    Edmonds’s testimony would have been of no assistance to
    Smith in a Schlup hearing because it would not establish
    Smith’s innocence of felony murder, why was the state so
    desperate to prevent his testimony? Why would it have
    engaged in egregious prosecutorial misconduct by threatening
    to have Edmonds executed if he testified? Thus the inference
    is rational and fairly drawn. Equally important, if we presume
    that Edmonds’s testimony would have been favorable to
    Smith, our action would have a most beneficial effect. It
    would deter the state from unlawfully interfering with the
    16694                     SMITH v. BALDWIN
    introduction of relevant evidence in future habeas and other
    proceedings.
    The deterrence rationale takes on added importance when
    considered in light of the purposes of the Schlup doctrine. The
    Schlup gateway is an outgrowth of the Supreme Court’s rec-
    ognition that “the conviction of one innocent of the crime” for
    which he was convicted represents a “fundamental miscar-
    riage of justice.” McCleskey v. Zant, 
    499 U.S. 467
    , 494
    (1991); see also Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 314-15
    . Meeting the
    Schlup standard does not by itself prove that such a miscar-
    riage has taken place,8 but doing so raises a significant possi-
    bility that the petitioner may not have been guilty of the
    offense for which he was convicted. This possibility warrants
    an exception to the procedural default rule to allow the federal
    court to make absolutely certain that no miscarriage of justice
    occurs. See Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 316
    . When the state, through
    an act of flagrant prosecutorial misconduct, precludes the
    introduction of evidence that, had it been admitted, would
    undermine the court’s confidence in the outcome of a criminal
    proceeding, it substantially increases the possibility that a fun-
    damental miscarriage of justice—the conviction of an inno-
    cent individual—has occurred. Even more so if the state by
    that egregious misconduct precludes the holding of the evi-
    dentiary hearing itself. This is certainly behavior that federal
    courts, charged with upholding constitutional protections,
    should seek to deter. For this reason, it is especially appropri-
    ate in the context of a habeas petitioner’s Schlup actual inno-
    cence claim to apply the standard presumption that the
    precluded evidence was unfavorable to the party that caused
    its preclusion and, here, that the precluded evidentiary hearing
    would have resulted in an outcome favorable to the other
    party.
    8
    This is in contrast to prevailing on a freestanding actual innocence
    claim, which alone is grounds for granting habeas relief but imposes a
    much more difficult—indeed, possibly insurmountable—burden on the
    petitioner. See Herrera v. Collins, 
    506 U.S. 390
     (1993).
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                           16695
    III.
    I will not here engage in the extraordinary process of appel-
    late factfinding that the majority does when it concludes that
    a reasonable juror would more likely than not find that Smith
    had failed to meet at least one element of his affirmative
    defense. Such factual determinations are a matter for the dis-
    trict court in the first instance. They are to be made after a
    thorough review of facts adduced at a habeas petitioner’s evi-
    dentiary hearing. In this case, however, such a hearing was
    precluded by the state’s deliberate and egregious misconduct,
    and the district court was unable to make any findings. As a
    result, the majority does so on its own, relying almost entirely
    on Edmonds’s past statements—which are in serious doubt in
    light of his recantations—as well as on hypothetical testimony
    at a hearing that never took place. Such creative prestidigita-
    tion is no substitute for an actual evidentiary hearing. More-
    over, the majority makes credibility findings as to Edmonds’s
    hypothetical testimony at its hypothetical hearing. Needless to
    say, such credibility findings are a question for the district
    court and cannot be made on appellate review, especially in
    the absence of any testimony on which to base those findings.9
    9
    The majority strangely suggests that we are “being inconsistent,” maj.
    op. at 16668-69 n.11, in criticizing its hypothetical credibility determina-
    tions because an en banc decision that we joined, Carriger v. Stewart, 
    132 F.3d 463
     (9th Cir. 1997) (en banc), concluded that a state court’s credibil-
    ity determination was “not fairly supported by the record as a whole” and
    therefore was “not entitled to a presumption of correctness,” 
    id. at 475-76
    .
    The majority’s comparison of its own approach to that of Carriger is, to
    say the least, bizarre. In Carriger, the state court had found that a deceased
    witness’s confession, which it had not itself witnessed, was not consistent
    with the physical evidence and therefore not credible. 
    Id. at 473
    . The en
    banc court, reviewing the entire record, concluded that there was “virtually
    no . . . support for the state court’s rejection of [the witness’s] confession”
    and, consequently, declined to defer to the state court’s credibility finding,
    pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(8) (1994). Id. at 475; see also 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(8) (1994) (“[A] determination . . . of a factual issue, made by
    a State court of competent jurisdiction . . . , shall be presumed to be cor-
    rect, unless . . . the Federal court on a consideration of . . . the record as
    16696                       SMITH v. BALDWIN
    The majority’s analyses of elements (b) and (c) of the affirma-
    tive defense—whether Smith killed Konzelman and whether
    he was himself armed with the crowbar—as well as its analy-
    sis of element (d)—whether Smith had reason to believe
    Edmonds was armed—are based almost entirely on hypotheti-
    cal, non-existent evidence. Because such determinations are
    wholly invalid in the absence of an evidentiary hearing, I will
    not discuss each of them individually here.
    To the extent that the majority’s analysis of element (d)
    relies on evidence other than Edmonds’s past statements,10
    such evidence is trivial and fails to prove that Smith had rea-
    son to believe that Edmonds was armed with the crowbar.
    First, there is Mrs. Konzelman’s testimony. Contrary to the
    majority’s assertion, there is little reason to believe on the
    basis of her testimony that Smith saw the crowbar on the bed-
    room floor when he paused briefly in the doorway. Mrs. Kon-
    zelman stated that she herself did not see the crowbar until the
    attacker picked it up from the ground just prior to assaulting
    her husband. She also stated that the second burglar’s pause
    a whole concludes that such factual determination is not fairly supported
    by the record.”). The Carriger court’s appellate review, pursuant to stat-
    ute, of a credibility determination made by the state court—that the state
    court was in no better position to make—is a far cry from this majority’s
    credibility assessment of hypothetical testimony that has never been given,
    let alone passed upon by a lower court.
    10
    The linchpin of the majority’s reasoning as to element (d) is
    Edmonds’s prior statements indicating that he and Smith entered the Kon-
    zelmans’ residence “at or around the same time.” Maj. op. at 16671. With-
    out Edmonds’s statements, which were, in any event, vague and imprecise,
    two of the majority’s primary factual bases—that the crowbar is three-feet
    long (and therefore difficult to conceal) and that there was sufficient light
    in the garage to see objects—would be wholly irrelevant. It would make
    little difference that the crowbar was long or that the garage was suffi-
    ciently lit if Smith and Edmonds did not enter the house together. If
    Edmonds entered sometime after Smith (or perhaps even vice versa) he
    could have easily removed the crowbar from the garage and carried it into
    the house without Smith’s knowledge.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                           16697
    at the doorway was brief—just long enough for her to see his
    bandana—which is consistent with Edmonds’s affidavit stat-
    ing that Smith “never entered the Konzleman’s [sic] bed-
    room.” These facts strongly suggest that Smith did not have
    the occasion during his brief pause at the doorway to search
    the room visibly and observe the crowbar, which was on the
    floor and out of plain sight.
    Second, three of the majority’s primary pieces of evidence
    prove nothing more than that Smith learned at some point,
    either during, or more likely after, the attack, that Edmonds
    was armed with the crowbar.11 It would be patently unreason-
    11
    These pieces are: (1) the ultimate locations of the rope and crowbar,
    (2) Smith’s guilty plea on the robbery charge, and (3) the majority’s the-
    ory that Smith may have witnessed Edmonds committing the attack from
    another room.
    First, the majority asserts that “the ultimate placement of the [rope and
    crowbar] permits the reasonable inference that Smith and Edmonds
    crossed paths while Edmonds had the crowbar and Smith the rope[ ] . . . .”
    Maj. op. at 16673. To the extent that the objects’ placement implies that
    Smith and Edmonds “crossed paths,” however, it does not imply that they
    did so prior to the beating. To the contrary, given that Smith never entered
    the bedroom before the beating, the only reasonable inference that can be
    drawn is that, if the two crossed paths at all, allowing Smith to see
    Edmonds holding the crowbar, it was only after the attack had taken place.
    Second, the fact that Smith pled to the robbery charge that alleged that
    the defendants used a crowbar proves nothing more than that he had
    learned at some time that Edmonds had a crowbar. This is hardly a surpris-
    ing admission, given that Smith would certainly have learned of that fact
    when he discovered that Konzelman had been murdered, if only from
    being so informed by the police.
    Finally, the majority’s conjecture that “it is entirely plausible that Smith
    returned to the bedroom doorway when he heard the beating, or that he
    moved to a vantage point in the hallway from which he was not visible
    to Mrs. Kozelman [sic] but could still see the attack,” maj. op. at 16672,
    if it may even be believed, proves only that Smith discovered that
    Edmonds had the crowbar while the attack was taking place. It says noth-
    ing about whether Smith had reason to believe prior to the attack that
    Edmonds had picked up the crowbar—the only time frame that is relevant
    to element (d) of the affirmative defense.
    16698                 SMITH v. BALDWIN
    able to find that Smith “[h]ad . . . reason to believe that
    [Edmonds] was armed with a dangerous or deadly weapon”
    for the purposes of Oregon Revised Statute § 163.115(3)(d) if
    he discovered that Edmonds had possession of the crowbar
    only while Edmonds was committing the attack or after it had
    taken place. The purpose of an affirmative defense statute,
    after all, is to ensure that only persons who were aware
    beforehand that a death could occur during the felony, and
    therefore might have acted to prevent it, may be held liable
    for felony murder. These points are thus wholly irrelevant to
    the question whether Smith had reasonable ground to believe
    prior to the attack that Edmonds was armed.
    The majority’s attempt to bolster its analysis through
    Smith’s 1992 post-conviction deposition testimony is also
    unavailing. Although Smith “consulted with his counsel”
    about other defenses his trial counsel could have raised, we
    have no idea whether Smith’s post-conviction counsel told
    him that not having reason to know that Edmonds had a crow-
    bar constituted such a defense, or whether Smith understood
    him if he had. (We could, of course, have learned the answer
    to these questions had the evidentiary hearing to which Smith
    was entitled been held.) Thus, the fact that Smith never
    explicitly stated during that deposition that he was unaware
    Edmonds had the crowbar tells us nothing. Moreover, the
    majority interprets Smith’s deposition statement that he
    “didn’t know that [Edmonds] was going to [kill Konzelman]”
    as meaning that Smith was “unaware Edmonds had the intent
    to use the crowbar.” Maj. op. at 16675 (emphasis added).
    Smith’s statement, however, could just as easily mean that
    Smith was unaware that Edmonds had the crowbar. Indeed,
    that may be the more reasonable interpretation of Smith’s
    vague utterance—after all, Smith may have been unaware that
    Edmonds was going to kill Konzelman precisely because he
    never saw Edmonds holding the crowbar.
    In sum, the majority’s evidentiary analysis depends almost
    entirely on credibility determinations of Edmonds’s never-
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                         16699
    given testimony at a hearing that never occurred; the few
    crumbs of evidence that do not fall in that category fail to sup-
    port the majority’s conclusion, and, if they did, they would
    hardly be sufficient.12
    12
    Judge Fisher’s approach, while rightly rejecting the majority’s reli-
    ance on Edmonds’s hypothetical testimony, see Fisher op. at 16684, ulti-
    mately fails for the same reason the majority’s does. Judge Fisher notes
    that Edmonds’s past statements concerning “Smith’s and Edmonds’
    respective comings-and-goings into the Konzelmans’ house” were highly
    inconsistent, Fisher op. at 16683, and concludes on that basis that a rea-
    sonable juror would most likely find that Edmonds and Smith were
    together at least sometime during the evening and that Smith would have
    seen Edmonds carrying the crowbar at that point, Fisher op. at 16684. Like
    the majority, Judge Fisher believes that an evidentiary hearing would have
    made no difference because Smith could not have proven his actual inno-
    cence regardless of what Edmonds might have said. But the fact that
    Edmonds changed his story so many times when he was attempting to
    shift the responsibility to Smith surely cannot defeat Smith’s Schlup claim.
    That a defendant trying to pin the blame on someone else was unable to
    keep his story straight does not provide reason to credit one of those sto-
    ries over the others, as Judge Fisher suggests; if anything, it is reason to
    discount all of Edmonds’s past stories as fabricated in an attempt to avoid
    culpability himself. At the very least, Edmonds’s failed past inconsistent
    statements are not a reason to deprive Smith of an evidentiary hearing.
    Because the existing evidence in the record is so utterly unreliable, as
    Judge Fisher himself recognizes, we cannot assume that what Edmonds
    might say at an evidentiary hearing at which he finally accepts responsibil-
    ity for the crime would have no bearing on whether Smith could prove his
    affirmative defense.
    Given that Judge Fisher also appears to recognize the egregious nature
    of the prosecutorial misconduct, I am puzzled as to why he would simply
    assume that fact for the purpose of the opinion rather than stating
    expressly that he, like the dissenters, would hold that the prosecutor’s
    behavior was grossly improper and unethical. Although I disagree with the
    majority for all the reasons expressed in this dissent, I find its failure to
    adopt such a holding and to condemn expressly the prosecutor’s conduct
    particularly inexcusable. I would hope that its unwillingness to do so
    would not encourage other prosecutors to believe that they may engage in
    similar threats to seek the death penalty against witnesses who might tes-
    tify to facts that are contrary to the prosecution’s theory of the case.
    16700                  SMITH v. BALDWIN
    IV.
    Finally, I note briefly that, although the majority does not
    advocate holding a hearing, because it believes that its hypo-
    thetical construct dispenses with any need for doing so, it also
    appears to suggest that granting Edmonds use immunity could
    effectively remedy the prosecutorial misconduct. This is also
    erroneous. As the panel opinion explained, granting Edmonds
    use immunity
    would not effectively counter the threat of execution,
    as the state would be free to seek the death penalty
    even if barred from relying on Edmonds’s testimony.
    If Edmonds did decide to testify, there would be no
    way to ensure that the looming prosecutorial threat
    of execution would not significantly influence his
    testimony. . . . Any testimony that contradicted his
    affidavits would be of doubtful reliability.
    Smith, 466 F.3d at 826-27. Because the state’s threat to have
    Edmonds executed would taint any testimony that Edmonds
    might give so long as the threat of execution loomed, we
    could not now send the case back for an evidentiary hearing
    at which Edmonds testifies under use immunity. On the other
    hand, granting Edmonds “transactional immunity”—or total
    immunity from prosecution on the subject matter of his
    testimony—would allow Edmonds to testify more readily but
    would provide too much of a reward for testimony that may
    be untruthful, and such immunity might encourage Edmonds
    to lie with impunity. Thus, allowing Smith to proceed to a
    hearing on the merits of his constitutional claims provides the
    least intrusive solution; such a remedy would effectively cure
    the harm wrought by the prosecution’s unconstitutional threat
    that it would seek to have a witness executed if he testified in
    Smith’s favor, without providing too much or too little immu-
    nity to that witness. This remedy would, of course, grant no
    substantive relief to Smith, who would still be required to
    establish on the merits his claims of constitutional violations.
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                          16701
    In any event, the majority affirms the denial of an evidentiary
    hearing and does not remand for the grant of use immunity.
    So, its discussion of that remedy is as worthless as its con-
    struct of a non-existent hearing.
    V.
    In the end, it is difficult to believe that the Court took this
    case en banc to decide the factual question whether the evi-
    dence does or does not support an affirmative defense to fel-
    ony murder under a particular provision of Oregon law.13 We
    do not go en banc to sort out questions of fact or state law,
    or to create mythical records for hearings that never were. See
    Fed. R. App. P. 35(a) (“An en banc . . . rehearing is not
    favored and ordinarily will not be ordered unless: (1) en banc
    consideration is necessary to secure or maintain uniformity of
    the court’s decisions; or (2) the proceeding involves a ques-
    tion of exceptional importance.”). It is even more unfathom-
    able that, by its fallacious evaluation of non-existent facts, the
    majority reaches a result the correctness of which is impossi-
    ble to evaluate, all in order to avoid considering the state’s
    flagrant prosecutorial misconduct and the consequences that
    should attach to it.
    I regret that this court did not hold, as it should have, that
    threatening a witness with execution if he testifies that a per-
    son convicted of a crime is not guilty is in direct contraven-
    tion of the Due Process Clause of the Constitution. We have
    13
    Despite the majority’s insistence, this case is not about construing
    Schlup. What a habeas petitioner must prove to establish actual innocence
    under Schlup is not at issue in this case. Rather, as I explained earlier, the
    unique problem we face is determining what a court should do when the
    state, by threatening to execute a habeas petitioner’s key witness if he tes-
    tifies at an evidentiary hearing, makes it impossible for the petitioner to
    establish his Schlup claim. The majority evades that question, however,
    and instead decides this case based entirely on an unprecedented process
    of appellate factfinding and credibility assessing of hypothetical testimony
    at a hearing-that-never-was.
    16702                   SMITH v. BALDWIN
    an obligation to label such egregious prosecutorial miscon-
    duct for what it is—a gross deprivation of the petitioner’s
    rights and a reprehensible abuse of the prosecutor’s authority.
    Here, it is evident from the district court’s finding that the
    effect of the state’s misconduct was to deny a habeas peti-
    tioner the very evidentiary hearing necessary to establish his
    affirmative defense. Yet, the majority decides against Smith’s
    Schlup claim almost entirely on the basis of the earlier ambig-
    uous testimony of the probable killer who at the time was
    attempting to pin the murder on his partner in the robbery in
    order to obtain a lighter sentence for himself, and who has
    since recanted his story. Because, unlike the majority, I
    believe we cannot countenance the state’s blatant violation of
    constitutional processes, and because, in the absence of an
    evidentiary hearing, I cannot deem the violation harmless on
    the basis of a story the threatened witness has disavowed, I
    respectfully dissent.
    THOMAS, Circuit Judge, dissenting:
    I concur in Judge Reinhardt’s dissent, but write separately
    in order to amplify my views.
    “It is well established that ‘substantial governmental inter-
    ference with a defense witness’s free and unhampered choice
    to testify amounts to a violation of due process.” United
    States v. Vavages, 
    151 F.3d 1185
    , 1188 (9th Cir. 1998) (quot-
    ing United States v. Little, 
    753 F.2d 1420
    , 1438 (9th Cir.
    1984)); see also Webb v. Texas, 
    409 U.S. 95
    , 97-98 (1972)
    (warning witness of likely perjury prosecution constituted
    violation of due process).
    I can conceive of no stronger governmental interference
    with a witness’s free choice to testify than to threaten the wit-
    ness with death at the hands of the state if the witness testifies
    consistent with his sworn affidavit. One can only describe the
    SMITH v. BALDWIN                   16703
    government’s apparent reasoning as chilling. Either the gov-
    ernment did not believe the witness’s affidavit—in which case
    it was prepared to seek capital punishment despite its belief
    that the man did not commit the murder—or the government
    wanted to suppress truthful statements that might cause a man
    who did not commit the murder to be freed or his sentence
    reduced. If this type of threat had been made by the defense,
    there is little doubt we would call it witness tampering, sanc-
    tionable by an obstruction of justice charge.
    I can understand the temptation to leap to the ultimate con-
    clusion as to potential culpability for a crime. However, draw-
    ing analytical constructs as to theoretical liability from a spare
    appellate record is quite different from the truth that emerges
    from the crucible of a courtroom hearing.
    I would not brush aside the government’s prosecutorial
    misconduct. Rather, I would hold that the petitioner’s due
    process rights were violated by the threat made against the
    witness and remand for a full Schlup evidentiary hearing.
    Then, and only then, could we rest assured that there had been
    a meaningful search for the truth of what happened that tragic
    evening, and that the person most culpable in those events
    was receiving the punishment warranted for the senseless
    death of a helpless elderly man.