Alaska Wilderness v. Kempthorne ( 2008 )


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  •                  FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    ALASKA WILDERNESS LEAGUE;             
    NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE
    COUNCIL, INC.; PACIFIC
    ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES
    CENTER,
    v.
    Petitioners,
       No. 07-71457
    DIRK KEMPTHORNE, et al.,
    Respondent,
    SHELL OFFSHORE, INC.,
    Respondent-Intervenor.
    
    RESISTING ENVIRONMENTAL               
    DESTRUCTION ON INDIGENOUS LANDS,
    A PROJECT OF THE INDIGENOUS
    ENVIRONMENTAL NETWORK;
    CENTER FOR BIOLOGICAL
    DIVERSITY AND SIERRA CLUB,
    Petitioners,       No. 07-71989
    v.
    DIRK KEMPTHORNE, et al.,
    Respondent,
    SHELL OFFSHORE, INC.,
    Respondent-Intervenor.
    
    15551
    15552         ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    NORTH SLOPE BOROUGH; ALASKA           
    ESKIMO WHALING COMMISSION,
    Petitioners,
    No. 07-72183
    
    v.
    DOI No. 2007-152
    DIRK KEMPTHORNE, et al.,
    Respondent,            OPINION
    SHELL OFFSHORE, INC.,
    Respondent-Intervenor.
    
    On Petition for Review of a Decision of the
    Department of Interior
    Argued and Submitted
    December 4, 2007—San Francisco, California
    Filed November 20, 2008
    Before: Dorothy W. Nelson, Stephen Reinhardt, and
    Carlos T. Bea, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge D.W. Nelson;
    Dissent by Judge Bea
    15556         ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    COUNSEL
    Christopher Winter, Crag Law Center, Portland, Oregon;
    Deirdre A. McDonnell, Earthjustice, Juneau, Alaska, for the
    petitioners.
    David C. Shilton, United States Department of Justice, Wash-
    ington, D.C., for the respondent.
    Kyle W. Parker, Patton Boggs LLP, Anchorage, Alaska, for
    the respondent-intervenor.
    OPINION
    D.W. NELSON, Senior Circuit Judge:
    Petitioners are six organizations that support environmental
    conservation, indigenous communities, and wildlife popula-
    tions of Northern Alaska. They challenge the Minerals Man-
    agement Service’s (“MMS”) approval of an exploration plan
    submitted by Shell Offshore Inc. (“Shell”). Shell seeks to drill
    multiple offshore exploratory oil wells over a three-year
    period in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea.
    Petitioners challenge the agency’s action under the
    National Environmental Policy Act (“NEPA”), 
    42 U.S.C. §§ 4321-4347
    , and the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act
    (“OCSLA”), 
    43 U.S.C. §§ 1331-56
    . Petitioners allege that
    MMS failed to take the requisite “hard look” at the impact of
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE            15557
    drilling on the people and wildlife of the Beaufort Sea region
    in violation of the standards set forth by NEPA, OCSLA, and
    their implementing regulations. Petitioners also argue that
    MMS erred by failing to prepare an environmental impact
    statement (“EIS”) for the proposed exploration activities,
    because of the potential for significant harmful effects on the
    environment.
    We have jurisdiction over all parties’ claims as each peti-
    tion for review was timely filed. We vacate the agency’s
    approval of Shell’s exploration plan, and remand so that
    MMS can conduct the “hard look” analysis required by
    NEPA.
    FACTUAL AND PROCEDURAL BACKGROUND
    I.   Administrative Process
    In April 2002, MMS issued a five-year plan establishing a
    lease sale schedule for the Outer Continental Shelf (“OCS”)
    of the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. The plan envisions offer-
    ing three separate lease sales in the Beaufort Sea. In February
    2003, MMS prepared a detailed EIS to evaluate the overall
    impacts of the activities projected to occur pursuant to these
    lease sales (“multi-sale EIS”). The study analyzes the poten-
    tial effects of oil exploration and production on the region’s
    wildlife, environment, and subsistence activities. The multi-
    sale EIS assumes that drilling would begin in 2007, and
    would require a maximum of two drilling rigs, icebreakers,
    supply boats, and floating platforms in waters deeper than
    twenty meters. The multi-sale EIS also evaluates mitigation
    measures that were developed through the cooperation of fed-
    eral agencies, the State of Alaska, and Native Alaskans. These
    measures include an extensive bowhead whale monitoring
    program and a conflict avoidance process designed to protect
    subsistence activities. The multi-sale EIS further notes: “Any
    proposed exploration or development plans that may result for
    any of the three OCS sales evaluated in this EIS, would
    15558          ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    require additional NEPA environmental analysis using site
    specific information.”
    In 2003, MMS held the first sale, Lease Sale 186, without
    conducting further NEPA analysis. The agency held two sub-
    sequent lease sales in July 2004 (Lease Sale 195), and August
    2006 (Lease Sale 202), preparing a supplemental environmen-
    tal assessment (“EA”) for each one. Both of these EAs
    “tiered” to the multi-sale EIS. In the tiering process, the
    agency looks to see if the proposed activities are covered by
    the analysis in previous studies, whether additional mitigation
    measures are needed, and what level of NEPA evaluation is
    required. The leases at issue in this case were purchased in
    July 2004, under Lease Sale 195.
    OCSLA requires that a lessee obtain approval of an explo-
    ration plan (“EP”) before beginning exploratory drilling. 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.201
    . The EP must include a project-specific
    environmental impact analysis assessing the potential effects
    of the proposed exploration activities. 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.227
    .
    MMS reviews the EP, and the application is deemed “submit-
    ted” when it “fulfills requirements and is sufficiently accu-
    rate,” and the applicant has “provided all needed additional
    information.” 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.231
    (a). MMS then conducts its
    environmental review pursuant to NEPA, 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.232
    (c), and within thirty days issues a decision approv-
    ing, disapproving, or requiring modifications to the EP. 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.233
    .
    Shell’s proposed drilling activities are the first to be consid-
    ered for the Beaufort Sea in conjunction with these lease
    sales. In November 2006, Shell submitted the first version of
    its EP for the Beaufort Sea region. Shell’s EP details its plan
    to drill up to twelve exploratory wells on twelve lease tracts
    in the Beaufort Sea over the next three years. The lease blocks
    are grouped into five “prospects” and stretch from the Col-
    ville River Delta eastward to the Canadian border. The Cor-
    nell Prospect is fifteen to twenty miles offshore of the Colville
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE              15559
    River Delta, north of the Inupiat Eskimo village of Nuiqsut.
    The Sivulliq Prospect is ten miles offshore in Camden Bay,
    between the villages of Nuiqsut and Kaktovik. The Olympia
    Prospect is located north of Kaktovik. The Fosters and Fire-
    claw Prospects are located farther east, between Kaktovik and
    the Canadian border.
    In the first year of the plan, Shell aims to drill four wells
    within the Sivulliq Prospect in Camden Bay. In the following
    two years, “Shell proposes to drill an undetermined number
    of wells on additional prospects . . . depending on the [initial]
    drilling results.” Throughout this project, Shell plans to use
    two drilling vessels, two icebreaking ships, various other sup-
    ply boats, and up to six aircraft. All exploratory activities
    would occur between June and mid-November as the Beaufort
    Sea is frozen over for half of the year.
    In December 2006, MMS issued its “Completeness Com-
    ments” on Shell’s EP, indicating what information was still
    needed before the EP would be considered properly submit-
    ted. The agency asked Shell to clarify the specific drilling
    locations for which it was seeking approval. MMS also sought
    more information on the “potential impact of underwater
    noise,” conflict avoidance mechanisms, and other mitigation
    measures that could ameliorate the deleterious effects of the
    exploratory drilling. The final version of Shell’s EP was sub-
    mitted on January 12, 2007. The application included Shell’s
    Environmental Report and an oil spill contingency plan. No
    further detail was given identifying specific well locations for
    the 2008 and 2009 seasons. MMS determined the application
    was complete and began the approval process on January 17,
    2007.
    After receiving a completed EP, the agency has thirty days
    to approve, disapprove, or require modification of a plan. 
    43 U.S.C. § 1340
    (c)(1); 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.233
    . Throughout this
    time period, a number of agency experts expressed concern
    about the potentially significant impacts the drilling would
    15560            ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    have on bowhead whales, polar bears, and the Inupiat subsis-
    tence harvest.
    Despite these concerns, MMS issued an eighty-seven page
    EA and a Finding of No Significant Impact (“FONSI”) on
    February 15, 2007. The EA “tiers” to the prior environmental
    studies, pursuant to 
    40 C.F.R. § 1502.20
    . The EA states: “The
    level and types of activities proposed in the Shell EP are
    within the range of the activities described and evaluated in
    the Beaufort Sea multiple-sale EIS . . . and updated in EA’s
    [sic] for Sales 195 and 202.” The agency concluded that the
    proposed activities “would not significantly affect the quality
    of the human environment” or “cause ‘undue or serious harm
    or damage to the human, marine, or coastal environment,’ ”
    in accordance with 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.27
    . As a result of this
    finding, the agency did not prepare an EIS specific to this proj-
    ect.1
    On April 13, 2007, a group of Petitioners consisting of the
    Alaska Wilderness League, the National Resources Defense
    Council, and the Pacific Environment (collectively “AWL”),
    filed a Petition for Review with this court. Simultaneously,
    Petitioners representing the North Slope Borough and the
    Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission (collectively “NSB”)
    filed an optional administrative appeal from the agency’s
    decision with the Interior Board of Land Appeals (“IBLA”).
    On May 4, 2007, the IBLA declined to exercise its jurisdic-
    tion and stayed the administrative proceedings pending the
    outcome of AWL’s Petition for Review.
    1
    MMS’s approval of the EP was subject to many conditions. Shell had
    to: (1) obtain a determination from the State of Alaska that its operations
    were consistent with the Alaska Coastal Management Plan; (2) take mea-
    sures to avoid conflicts with subsistence harvests; and (3) get approval of
    its project from both the National Marine Fisheries Service and the Fish
    and Wildlife Service. The State of Alaska approved Shell’s plan on June
    19, 2007. Shell reached a conflict avoidance agreement with local whaling
    captains on July 24, 2007. On July 31, 2007, the Fish and Wildlife Service
    issued its Letter of Authorization. The National Marine Fisheries Service
    approved the project on October 25, 2007.
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE            15561
    Shell filed a Motion to Intervene on May 14, 2007. On May
    15, NSB filed an independent Petition for Review. On May
    22, 2007, Resisting Environmental Destruction on Indigenous
    Lands (“REDOIL”), an organization representing a network
    of Native Alaskans, filed its Petition for Review and a Motion
    to Consolidate. This court consolidated the matter on July 2,
    2007. On August 14, 2007, this court granted Petitioners’
    motion to stay, ordering the agency’s decision inoperative
    until this matter could be considered on the merits.
    II.   Beaufort Sea Resources and Wildlife
    The Alaskan Beaufort Sea is part of the Arctic Ocean, bor-
    dering Alaska’s north shore. It stretches from Point Barrow
    and the Chukchi Sea in the west, to the Canadian border in the
    east. The Beaufort Sea is home to a wide range of fish, mam-
    mal, and bird species. The Western Arctic stock of bowhead
    whales lives within the Beaufort region. Bowhead whales are
    designated as an endangered species under 
    50 C.F.R. § 17.11
    (h). These creatures may live over 100 years and do
    not reach sexual maturity until fifteen to twenty years. Once
    they attain maturity, they reproduce roughly every three years.
    The Western Arctic group migrates twice annually. In the
    spring, they move eastward from the Bering Strait, through
    the Alaskan Beaufort Sea, and into summer feeding grounds
    in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. Most calves are born in the
    Chukchi Sea prior to entering the Beaufort. During September
    and October, the whales reverse course and head back to the
    Bering Strait. The whales spend considerable time feeding in
    the Alaskan Beaufort during both phases of their migratory
    pattern.
    Bowhead whales are sensitive to noise in the marine envi-
    ronment. The noise generated by icebreakers and drillships
    has the potential to cause serious consequences for bowhead
    whales. The impacts of a specific project would vary depend-
    ing on the placement, quantity, and quality of vessels operat-
    ing at each site. High levels of underwater noise can cause
    15562         ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    temporary or permanent hearing damage. Even low levels of
    noise can affect the biological functions and behavioral pat-
    terns of marine mammals. In particular, increased noise can
    cause avoidance behaviors that displace migratory routes.
    Females traveling with young calves may be especially sus-
    ceptible to harm, as disturbances could separate a dependent
    from its caregiver.
    The Inupiat Eskimos reside on the north coast of Alaska
    and have long relied upon the resources of the Beaufort Sea
    and its environs for subsistence. Eight different villages are
    scattered along the coast. As noted by the multi-sale EIS:
    [T]his close relationship between the spirit of a peo-
    ple, their social organization, and the cultural value
    of subsistence hunting may be unparalleled when
    compared with other areas in America where energy
    development is taking place. The Inupiat’s continu-
    ing strong dependence on subsistence foods, particu-
    larly marine mammals and caribou, creates a unique
    set of potential effects from onshore and offshore oil
    exploration and development on the social and cul-
    tural system.
    Subsistence activities are an important component of the
    Inupiat’s long-term health, as this diet and lifestyle protects
    against degenerative health risks. Further, as the multi-sale
    EIS states, “[s]ubsistence activities are assigned the highest
    cultural values by the Inupiat and provide a sense of identity
    in addition to being an important economic pursuit.”
    Bowhead whales are an important subsistence resource for
    the Inupiat. The harvest of bowhead whales is regulated by
    the International Whaling Commission, which sets guidelines
    on the number of whales that can be taken for subsistence
    purposes. The whale hunt is a dangerous and arduous process
    for Inupiat whalers, but it produces large amounts of meat
    consumed by Inupiat communities. Shell’s proposed activities
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE             15563
    take place in and adjacent to the subsistence bowhead whale
    hunting grounds for the villagers of both Nuiqsut and Kak-
    tovik. As a result, there is the potential that Shell’s activities
    may disrupt the Inupiat whaling activities.
    STANDARDS OF REVIEW
    Review of claims under NEPA and OCSLA are governed
    by the Administrative Procedure Act, 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (“APA”). Klamath-Siskiyou Wildlands Ctr. v. Bureau of Land
    Mgmt., 
    387 F.3d 989
    , 992 (9th Cir. 2004). “The agency’s
    actions, findings, and conclusions will be set aside if they are
    ‘arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not
    in accordance with law.’ ” 
    Id.
     (quoting 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2)(A)).
    Our review under the APA is “narrow but searching and care-
    ful.” Gifford Pinchot Task Force v. U.S. Fish & Wildlife
    Serv., 
    378 F.3d 1059
    , 1065 (9th Cir. 2004) (internal quotation
    marks omitted). OCSLA further states that an agency’s find-
    ings, “if supported by substantial evidence on the record con-
    sidered as a whole, shall be conclusive.” 
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (c)(6).
    We review a decision to forego preparation of an environ-
    mental impact statement under the arbitrary and capricious
    standard. Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n v. Babbitt, 
    241 F.3d 722
    , 730 (9th Cir. 2001). We look to whether the agency
    has: (1) taken a “hard look” at the potential impact of its
    actions; (2) considered all of the relevant factors in its deci-
    sion; and (3) provided an adequate statement of reasons to
    explain why a project’s impacts are insignificant. 
    Id.
     We will
    not substitute our judgment for that of the agency, but must
    “engage in a substantial inquiry” and a “thorough, probing,
    in-depth review.” Native Ecosystems Council v. U.S. Forest
    Serv., 
    418 F.3d 953
    , 960 (9th Cir. 2005) (quoting Citizens to
    Preserve Overton Park, Inc. v. Volpe, 
    401 U.S. 402
    , 415-16
    (1971)).
    15564            ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    DISCUSSION
    I.   Jurisdiction over NSB and REDOIL’s Petitions for
    Review
    [1] This court has jurisdiction over all claims before us.
    Respondents unsuccessfully argue that NSB and REDOIL’s
    petitions should be dismissed as untimely. OCSLA’s jurisdic-
    tional provision provides that a petition for review must be
    filed with the court within sixty days of any contested action.
    
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (c)(3). Respondents assert that the “action”
    at issue here is MMS’s approval of Shell’s EP on February
    15, 2007. Under this logic, the sixty-day time limit expired on
    April 16, 2007, and jurisdiction would therefore be barred
    over the petitions filed by NSB on May 15, 2007, and
    REDOIL on May 22, 2007.
    [2] However, since NSB and REDOIL utilized the adminis-
    trative appeal process, the sixty-day deadline did not begin to
    run on February 15, 2007. NSB and REDOIL filed an
    optional appeal of the agency’s decision with the IBLA on
    April 13, 2007, pursuant to 
    30 C.F.R. § 290.2
    . This optional
    appeal was filed within the sixty-day timeline established by
    
    30 C.F.R. § 290.3
    . On May 4, 2007, the IBLA declined to
    exercise its jurisdiction and stayed further proceedings pend-
    ing the outcome of AWL’s petition, already filed in this court.
    The statute of limitations was tolled during the administrative
    appeal process, and the sixty-day period to file a petition for
    review began to run after the IBLA issued its decision on May
    4.2 See ICC v. Bhd. of Locomotive Eng’rs, 
    482 U.S. 270
    , 284-
    2
    The IBLA’s May 4, 2007, decision “suspended” the administrative
    proceedings in light of the fact that the IBLA would lose jurisdiction over
    the appeals when the administrative record was filed with this Court as
    part of AWL’s petition for review. See 
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (c)(7); see also
    
    id.
     § 1349(c)(5) (“The Secretary shall file in the appropriate court the
    record . . . .”) (emphasis added). The IBLA suspended the proceedings
    because, at the time of its decision, it did not know whether the adminis-
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE                    15565
    85 (1987) (holding that a timely petition for administrative
    review stops the running of the statute of limitations). By fil-
    ing on May 15 and May 22, the organizations petitioned for
    review well within the statutory time period.3
    [3] Respondents’ argument that tolling does not apply in
    this context is unavailing. For purposes of judicial review, the
    filing of an optional administrative appeal renders MMS’s
    February 15, 2007 decision non-final. See Acura of Bellevue
    v. Reich, 
    90 F.3d 1403
    , 1407 (9th Cir. 1996) (“We hold that
    exercise of an optional appeal to a Department ALJ renders
    the initial Administrator’s decision nonfinal for purposes of
    judicial review under the APA.”). The statute of limitations
    was tolled while the administrative appeal was pending. See,
    e.g., Bhd. of Locomotive Eng’rs, 
    482 U.S. at 284-85
    .
    Respondents assert that the Supreme Court’s decision in
    Stone v. INS, 
    514 U.S. 386
     (1995), limits the availability of
    tolling in this context. To the contrary, Stone in fact reiterates
    the strength of the “conventional tolling rule” during adminis-
    trative appeals. 
    514 U.S. at 391-92, 398
    . That case dealt with
    trative record had already been filed by MMS or when it would be filed.
    Thus, it lacked the information necessary to dismiss the appeals for lack
    of jurisdiction. Nonetheless, the IBLA’s May 4, 2007, decision was “final”
    because it effectively terminated the appeals: the IBLA could not reopen
    the appeals after the filing of the administrative record divested the IBLA
    of jurisdiction because, under § 1349(c)(7), the decision issued by this
    Court would be “final.”
    3
    The dissent ignores Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers in suggest-
    ing that the sixty-day time limit ran during the period between the Secre-
    tary’s decision and the filing of the administrative appeals and that NSB
    and REDOIL thus had only three days to file their petitions for review
    upon completion of the IBLA proceedings. Under Brotherhood of Loco-
    motive Engineers, the statutory time limit does not begin to run until the
    administrative appeal is terminated. See 
    482 U.S. at 276
     (considering only
    whether the petition for administrative review was filed “within the period
    prescribed by” the agency’s rules).
    15566         ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    a very specific jurisdictional provision in the Immigration and
    Nationality Act (“INA”). The statute stated:
    [W]henever a petitioner seeks review of an order
    under this section, any review sought with respect to
    a motion to reopen or reconsider such an order shall
    be consolidated with the review of the order.
    8 U.S.C. § 1105a(a)(6) (1988) (current version at 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (b)(6) (2005)). The Court examined the statutory lan-
    guage and the legislative history to conclude that the “statute
    is best understood as reflecting an intent on the part of Con-
    gress that deportation orders are to be reviewed in a timely
    fashion after issuance, irrespective of the later filing of a
    motion to reopen or reconsider.” Stone, 
    514 U.S. at 394
    . The
    Court deviated from the general tolling principle because of
    specific indications from Congress that it intended such a
    result. 
    Id. at 393
     (“Congress chose to depart from the ordinary
    judicial treatment of agency orders under reconsideration”);
    see also 
    id. at 398
     (this provision “is best understood as
    reflecting [Congress’s] expectation that in the particular con-
    text of INS deportation orders the normal tolling rule will not
    apply.”).
    The jurisdictional statute in OCSLA is not analogous to the
    INA statute at issue in Stone. The statute in Stone directly
    addressed the relationship between judicial review and agency
    reconsideration. See 8 U.S.C. § 1105a(a)(6) (1988). OCSLA’s
    jurisdictional provision uses standard language that does not
    suggest any intent to diverge from general tolling principles.
    See 
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    . The statute generically states that peti-
    tions for review must be filed “within sixty days after the date
    of such action.” 
    Id.
     § 1349(c)(3). There is no indication here
    that Congress intended to depart from established tolling prin-
    ciples. Additionally, permitting tolling does not frustrate the
    prompt implementation of MMS action. The regulations pro-
    vide that the agency’s decisions remain in effect during an
    administrative appeal, unless a stay is granted. 30 C.F.R.
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE             15567
    § 290.7(a). MMS decisions can therefore have immediate
    effect, unless a reviewing body has legitimate reason to grant
    a stay.
    [4] The dissent erroneously argues that 
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (c)
    prohibits any internal administrative appeal of the Secretary’s
    decision to approve an exploration plan. However, that sec-
    tion prohibits only other forms of judicial review and is silent
    as to administrative review. Sections (c)(1) through (c)(3) by
    their own terms apply only to “judicial review,” and sections
    (c)(5) through (c)(7) establish rules for that judicial review.
    The only possible basis for the dissent’s conclusion is section
    (c)(4), which provides that “[a]ny action of the Secretary
    specified in paragraph (1) or (2) shall only be subject to
    review pursuant to the provisions of this subsection, and shall
    be excluded from citizen suits which are permitted pursuant
    to subsection (a) of this section.” 
    Id.
     Notably, the latter half
    of § 1349(c)(4), like the remainder of § 1349(c), is concerned
    exclusively with judicial review. In this statutory context, it is
    clear that, just like every other provision of § 1349(c), the “re-
    view” covered by the first half of § 1349(c)(4) is judicial
    review: Section 1349(c)(4) simply preempts other statutory
    avenues for judicial review, such as the Administrative Proce-
    dure Act. Because § 1349(c) is silent as to the availability or
    timing of administrative review, general principles of admin-
    istrative tolling, as exemplified in Brotherhood of Locomotive
    Engineers, apply, and the sixty-day deadline did not begin to
    run until the IBLA issued its decision on May 4, 2007.
    [5] NSB and REDOIL did not relinquish their opportunity
    for judicial review by opting to file an administrative appeal
    first. The statute of limitations was tolled during the appeal
    process, and petitions for review were filed well within sixty
    days after the IBLA issued its order. Accordingly, we have
    jurisdiction over all parties.
    15568             ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    II.        Compliance With NEPA “Hard Look” Review
    A.    Statutory Background
    OCSLA provides for a four-stage process for oil and gas
    development, with NEPA review at each stage. See Sec’y of
    the Interior v. California, 
    464 U.S. 312
    , 337 (1984) (delineat-
    ing the “four distinct statutory stages to developing an off-
    shore well,” each requiring “separate regulatory review”). The
    process involves: (1) preparation of a lease-sale schedule; (2)
    lease sales; (3) exploration of the lease-sale area; and (4)
    development and production. 
    Id.
     The continuing review pro-
    cess allows an agency to adjust its analysis to make sure
    energy production activities are conducted in an environmen-
    tally sound manner. The case before us involves exploration,
    the third stage of the process. At this phase, a lessee submits
    an EP for review and approval. 
    43 U.S.C. § 1340
    (c). The
    agency has thirty days to review the EP. 
    Id.
     § 1340(c)(1). The
    agency must disapprove the plan if it would result in “serious
    harm or damage” to the marine, coastal, or human environ-
    ment. See 
    43 U.S.C. § 1334
    (a)(2)(A)(i).
    As noted by the Supreme Court, “NEPA declares a broad
    national commitment to protecting and promoting environ-
    mental quality.” Robertson v. Methow Valley Citizens Coun-
    cil, 
    490 U.S. 332
    , 348 (1989). NEPA ensures that an agency
    “will have available, and will carefully consider, detailed
    information concerning significant environmental impacts; it
    also guarantees that the relevant information will be made
    available to the larger audience that may also play a role in
    both the decisionmaking process and the implementation of
    that decision.” 
    Id. at 349
    .
    NEPA requires that, “to the fullest extent possible,” all fed-
    eral agencies shall prepare an EIS when considering proposed
    activities “significantly affecting the quality of the human
    environment.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 4332
    ; Robertson, 
    490 U.S. at 348
    ;
    see also Blue Mountains Biodiversity Project v. Blackwood,
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE              15569
    
    161 F.3d 1208
    , 1212 (9th Cir. 1998) (threshold question in
    NEPA challenge is “whether a proposed project will ‘signifi-
    cantly affect’ the environment, thereby triggering the require-
    ment for an EIS” (quoting 
    42 U.S.C. § 4332
    (2)(C)). An
    agency may first prepare a less exhaustive EA to determine
    whether an EIS is necessary. 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.9
    ; Nat’l Parks
    & Conservation Ass’n v. Babbitt, 
    241 F.3d 722
    , 730 (9th Cir.
    2001). An EA is a “concise public document” that “[b]riefly
    provide[s] sufficient evidence and analysis for determining
    whether to prepare an [EIS] or a [FONSI].” 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.9
    (a). “Because the very important decision whether to
    prepare an EIS is based solely on the EA, the EA is funda-
    mental to the decision-making process.” Metcalf v. Daley, 
    214 F.3d 1135
    , 1143 (9th Cir. 2000). An EA is sufficient if it pro-
    vides enough “evidence and analysis for determining whether
    to prepare an [EIS] or a [FONSI].” Anderson v. Evans, 
    371 F.3d 475
    , 488 (9th Cir. 2004). Federal regulations encourage
    agencies to tier their environmental analyses in order to
    streamline and focus the review process. 
    40 C.F.R. § 1502.20
    (“Whenever a broad [EIS] has been prepared . . . the subse-
    quent statement or environmental assessment need only sum-
    marize the issues discussed in the broader statement and
    incorporate discussions from the broader statement by refer-
    ence and shall concentrate on the issues specific to the subse-
    quent action.”).
    [6] “[A]n EIS must be prepared if ‘substantial questions are
    raised as to whether a project . . . may cause significant degra-
    dation of some human environmental factor.’ ” Idaho Sport-
    ing Congress v. Thomas, 
    137 F.3d 1146
    , 1149 (9th Cir. 1998)
    (quoting Greenpeace Action v. Franklin, 
    14 F.3d 1324
    , 1332
    (9th Cir. 1992)). If an agency finds an EIS is not required and
    issues a FONSI, it must provide a “convincing statement of
    reasons” to explain its decision. Blue Mountains, 
    161 F.3d at 1212
    ; see also 
    40 C.F.R. §§ 1501.4
    (e), 1508.13. An agency
    cannot rely on mere “conclusory assertions that an activity
    will have only an insignificant impact on the environment.”
    Ocean Advocates v. U.S. Army Corps of Eng’rs, 
    402 F.3d 15570
              ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    846, 864 (9th Cir. 2005). Rather, the agency must demon-
    strate that it took the requisite “hard look” at the potential
    environmental impacts of a project, thereby justifying its
    action. Blue Mountains, 
    161 F.3d at 1212
    ; Ocean Advocates,
    402 F.3d at 864; Kern v. U.S. Bureau of Land Mgmt., 
    284 F.3d 1062
    , 1066-67 (9th Cir. 2002).
    To provide guidance on how NEPA should be applied, the
    Council on Environmental Quality promulgated regulations
    explaining what factors an agency must consider in determin-
    ing if a project’s potential effects are “significant.” See 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.27
    . This requires “considerations of both con-
    text and intensity.” 
    Id.
     Context refers to the location and inter-
    ests that would be affected by the proposed action. 
    Id.
    § 1508.27(a). Intensity refers to “the severity of the impact.”
    Id. § 1508.27(b). In considering intensity, an agency should
    consider up to ten factors that shed light on the “significance”
    of a project. Id. Those factors include: the effect on public
    health and safety; the unique characteristics of the geographic
    area; the degree to which the effects on the quality of the
    human environment are likely to be highly controversial; the
    degree to which the possible effects are highly uncertain or
    involve unknown risks; and the possible impacts on an endan-
    gered or threatened species. Id. §§ 1508.27(b)(2), (3), (4), (5),
    (7).
    B.    Sufficiency of MMS’s Environmental Analysis
    MMS has not provided a convincing statement of reasons
    explaining why Shell’s exploratory drilling plans at these spe-
    cific sites would have an insignificant impact on bowhead
    whales and Inupiat subsistence activities. As a result, we are
    unpersuaded that MMS took the requisite “hard look” at the
    environmental impact of this project. There remain substantial
    questions as to whether Shell’s plan may cause significant
    harm to the people and wildlife of the Beaufort Sea region.
    Respondents’ primary response is that, through the tiering
    process, the agency sufficiently analyzed all possible environ-
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE             15571
    mental impacts of this project. The EA is “tiered” to the
    multi-sale EIS and the EAs for Lease Sales 195 and 202 pur-
    suant to 
    40 C.F.R. § 1502.20
    . According to Respondents, any
    analysis that is allegedly missing from the EA is adequately
    covered in those previous documents. Respondents point out
    that OCSLA only allows thirty days to approve an EP, see 
    43 U.S.C. § 1340
    (c)(1), and argue that this short statutory dead-
    line encourages a streamlined review process. The agency
    may not, however, hide behind the cloak of its generalized
    multi-sale EIS. NEPA applies to all stages of the OCSLA
    cycle. Vill. of False Pass v. Clark, 
    733 F.2d 605
    , 614 (9th Cir.
    1984). When the agency is tasked with assessing the environ-
    mental impacts of a particular exploration plan, it has a duty
    to take a hard look at the consequences of drilling in specific
    sites. As the agency itself noted in the multi-sale EIS, “[a]ny
    proposed exploration or development plans that may result for
    [the area] evaluated in this EIS, would require additional
    NEPA environmental analysis using site specific informa-
    tion.” MMS’s environmental analysis is inadequate because it
    fails to consider the impacts this specific project will have on
    bowhead whales and Inupiat subsistence activities.
    1.   Impacts on Bowhead Whales
    MMS’s EA fails to take a hard look at whether Shell’s
    exploratory drilling program would have a “significant” effect
    on bowhead whales, an endangered species. See 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.27
    (b)(9) (agency should consider “degree to which the
    action may adversely affect an endangered or threatened spe-
    cies”). The EA lacks sufficient analysis on the consequences
    of underwater noise and its impact on bowheads’ migratory
    routes. Although the presence of some negative effects does
    not mandate a finding of significant impact, the agency must
    “consider the degree of adverse effect on a species.” Env’t
    Protection Info. Center (EPIC) v. U.S. Forest Serv., 
    451 F.3d 1005
    , 1010-11 (9th Cir. 2006); see also Native Ecosystems
    Council, 428 F.3d at 1240-41 (any mention of an adverse
    15572         ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    impact does not necessarily compel an EIS, but an agency
    should not use a “soft touch or brush-off of negative effects”).
    [7] The major shortcoming of the agency’s environmental
    analysis is that it does not assess the impacts that would be
    felt by the bowhead whale population from a project in the
    migratory route that involves two drillships and two icebreak-
    ers. The multi-sale EIS envisions “[a] maximum of two drill-
    ing rigs” would be used during this time, and the EA
    “assumed that two drilling rigs with icebreaker support might
    operate during any year.” However, aside from nominally
    mentioning the possible extent of this project, the studies
    relied upon by the agency do not actually assess the potential
    significance of underwater noise from a drilling operation of
    this scope.
    [8] The multi-sale EIS discusses, in a general sense, the
    impact of noise on bowhead whales, citing a number of
    studies that have been conducted on the topic. However, that
    document contains no studies that analyze the effects of noise
    from a project with two drillships and two icebreakers. The
    studies assessing the effect of noise in other situations suggest
    that bowheads respond to drilling noise by altering their
    migration speed and swimming direction to avoid closely
    approaching the noise sources. In discussing icebreaker noise,
    the multi-sale EIS states, “[e]ffects of an actual icebreaker on
    migrating bowheads, especially mothers and calves, could be
    biologically significant.” Moreover, studies cited in the multi-
    sale EIS use varying methodologies and come to inconclusive
    results. Many of these reports use noise simulations, but there
    is limited data on how bowheads would respond in an uncon-
    trolled setting. The reports state: “There are no observations
    of bowhead reactions to icebreakers breaking ice,” and “play-
    back results may somewhat understate the differences
    between truly undisturbed whales versus those exposed to
    playbacks.” The generalized information contained in the
    multi-sale EIS does not adequately demonstrate that the
    agency has taken a hard look at the effects of Shell’s project
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE              15573
    on bowhead whales. After making the observation that noise
    could cause significant biological effects, there is not addi-
    tional information that supports why any specific project
    would not cause real harm to whale populations. In particular,
    it is not evident from the multi-sale EIS that a project using
    the type of equipment proposed by Shell would not have a
    significant impact on bowhead whales.
    The EA does not cure this infirmity. The EA gives only a
    brief description of the level of noise the individual drillships
    in Shell’s proposal could make, but does not examine the
    combined effect of all vessels operating simultaneously. The
    agency’s analysis relies in large part on a biological opinion
    (“BiOp”) prepared by the National Marine Fisheries Service
    (“NMFS”) in 2006. MMS asserts that the BiOp “covers the
    proposed Shell operations” because it assumed a situation
    where two drilling rigs with icebreaker support would operate
    in an area covering up to twelve wells. But there is no indica-
    tion that the BiOp in fact relies on studies involving two drill-
    ships and two icebreakers. The BiOp acknowledges that the
    “potential total adverse effects of long-term added noise, dis-
    turbance, and related avoidance of feeding and resting habitat
    . . . are unknown.” In addition, “[t]here has been no docu-
    mented evidence that noise from previous OCS operations has
    served as a barrier to migration,” but “[c]oncentrations of loud
    noise and disturbance activities during the open water period
    have the potential to cause large numbers of bowheads to
    avoid using areas for resting and feeding for long periods of
    time . . . while the noise producing activities continue.” This
    analysis indicates that there are serious concerns and
    uncertainties about the manner in which the endangered bow-
    head population would respond to Shell’s three year explor-
    atory drilling plan. Despite these concerns, the BiOp goes on
    to allege that “bowhead whales exposed to noise-producing
    activities . . . most likely would experience temporary, nonle-
    thal effects.” It comes to the conclusion that “such exploratory
    drilling would not jeopardize the population.” This determina-
    15574         ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    tion is not supported by the BiOp’s contrary assertions that
    noise could cause serious adverse effects.
    MMS realizes the distinguishing characteristics between
    Shell’s specific proposal and the scope of prior studies, but
    does not then engage in any additional analysis. The agency
    admits in the EA that, “in the past, operations with one drill
    ship and associated icebreakers have displaced the migration
    slightly, and no whales were sighted between the operations
    and shore, but it is unknown what the increased level of effect
    of two proposed drillships and associated icebreakers and
    other attendant vessels would be.” In MMS’s own review of
    a 1993 monitoring study, the agency notes that the report “de-
    tected behavioral changes in bowheads around drillship oper-
    ations near Camden Bay.” MMS goes on to state:
    With regards to the MMS significance criteria, there
    is no evidence that the offshore displacement . . .
    persisted for more than a generation (about 17
    years). So, the level of effect of a drillship in Cam-
    den Bay is probably not significant by MMS NEPA
    standards. However, the same type of displacement
    to the east of Kaktovik where whales frequently feed
    would affect growth and could have a more serious
    biological effect. Also, even though there isn’t a sig-
    nificant biological effect from in Camden Bay opera-
    tions, there could be a significant sociocultural effect
    if the bowheads do not migrate back into the shore-
    ward portion of the migration corridor as they
    approach Cross Island.
    Notably, the EA also states that the “effect on bowheads is
    likely to be greater than for [the 1993 activities] because of
    Shell’s proposal to use two drillships, two large icebreakers,
    and several associated vessels.” Although the agency men-
    tions the possibility for increased impacts on bowhead whales
    and the human populations who depend on them, it fails to
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE            15575
    take a hard look at whether a proposal of this magnitude will
    have significant impacts on this endangered species.
    The agency’s attempt to rely upon a monitoring program as
    a mitigation measure is similarly ill-founded. This section of
    the EA ends with a discussion of “Stipulation No. 4” which
    requires that Shell conduct a site-specific whale monitoring
    program during its drilling operations. Instead of insisting on
    alternative mitigation measures or conducting a full EIS at
    this time, MMS states it “has the authority to modify
    approved operations to ensure that significant biological pop-
    ulations or habitats deserving protection are not subject to a
    threat of serious, irreparable, or immediate harm.”
    [9] Federal regulations define “mitigation” as a way to
    avoid, minimize, rectify, or compensate for the impact of a
    potentially harmful action. 
    40 C.F.R. §§ 1508.20
    (a)-(e). An
    agency can rely upon mitigation measures in determining
    whether an environmental impact is significant. See Nat’l
    Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 
    241 F.3d at 734
    . In order to be
    effective, a mitigation measure must be supported by analyti-
    cal data demonstrating why it will “constitute an adequate
    buffer against the negative impacts that may result from the
    authorized activity.” 
    Id.
     A mitigation measure must render
    potential impacts “so minor as to not warrant an EIS.” 
    Id.
     The
    proposed monitoring program fails this test, as it could detect
    impacts only after they have occurred. MMS’s statement that
    it would reserve the authority to modify approved operations
    does not provide enough protection under this standard. A
    court must be able to review, in advance, how specific mea-
    sures will bring projects into compliance with environmental
    standards. See 
    id. at 733
     (“The Parks Service proposes to
    increase the risk of harm to the environment and then perform
    its studies. . . . This approach has the process exactly back-
    wards.”). Monitoring may serve to confirm the appropriate-
    ness of a mitigation measure, but that does not make it an
    adequate mitigation measure in itself. See EPIC, 
    451 F.3d at 1015-16
    .
    15576         ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    [10] After considering the gaps in the multi-sale EIS and
    the EA, we conclude that the agency failed to take a “hard
    look” under NEPA because it did not provide a well-reasoned
    analysis of site-specific impacts to the endangered bowhead
    whale population. The tiered OCSLA process allows general
    analysis at the lease-sale stage, but the agency must then con-
    sider site-specific impacts before approving an individual
    exploration plan. See Pit River Tribe v. U.S. Forest Serv., 
    469 F.3d 768
    , 784 (9th Cir. 2006) (holding that agency could not
    rely on “vague prior programmatic statements,” but needed to
    consider “site-specific impacts” when a “critical decision has
    been made to act” on a lease sale); Vill. of False Pass v. Watt,
    
    565 F. Supp. 1123
    , 1135 (D. Alaska 1983) (“[A] purpose of
    OCSLA is to permit an expedient resolution of preliminary
    matters in the development of oil lands while preserving
    administrative and judicial review for future times when
    potential threats to the environment are readily visualized and
    evaluated.”).
    As the agency itself notes in the multi-sale EIS, the tiered
    approach “builds on the premise that as both the agencies and
    companies involved move from general planning, to leasing,
    to exploration . . . the specificity of the information improves.
    The accompanying environmental analysis that flows from
    each stage also is more specific with respect to location, tim-
    ing, and magnitude.” The EA contains the names of Shell’s
    drilling vessels (the Kulluk and the Frontier Discoverer) and
    icebreakers (the Kapitan Dranitzyn and the Vladimire Ignat-
    yuk), and mentions the other vessels Shell intends to use.
    However, merely noting the details of Shell’s EP does not
    demonstrate that the effects of this plan were actually ana-
    lyzed. The results of the studies in the multi-sale EIS and EA
    were inconclusive. The agency may not rely on past studies
    on the general impact of noise on bowhead whales to justify
    its failure to conduct a particularized assessment here. This is
    especially true when past studies acknowledged that noise
    levels may, in certain circumstances, cause significant distur-
    bances to whales. Additionally, MMS’s analysis should take
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE        15577
    a closer look at the locations of Shell’s individual wells in
    relationship to the migratory patterns of the bowhead whales.
    [11] In sum, MMS abrogated its NEPA duties because nei-
    ther the EA nor the documents it tiers to considers the specific
    parameters and potential dangers of Shell’s project. There is
    substantial uncertainty about how various levels of noise
    would affect whales and their migratory patterns. See 
    40 C.F.R. §§ 1508.27
    (b)(5), (9) (in its review, agency should
    consider degree to which possible effects to the environment
    are highly uncertain, as well as how action may adversely
    affect an endangered species). Furthermore, the proposed mit-
    igation measure does not save the plan because it is not clear
    that a monitoring program will ameliorate potentially serious
    negative impacts. See Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 
    241 F.3d at 734
    .
    2.        Impacts on Inupiat Subsistence Activities
    i.    Bowhead Whale Harvest
    [12] MMS also failed to take a “hard look” at the effects
    Shell’s project would have on the Inupiat’s subsistence uses
    of bowhead whales. The agency’s review should consider
    how the proposal affects public health or safety, and the
    degree to which its impact on the human environment is
    unknown or highly controversial. 
    40 C.F.R. §§ 1508.27
    (b)(2),
    (4), (5). MMS defines a “significant” effect on a sociocultural
    system as: “A chronic disruption of sociocultural systems that
    occurs for a period of 2-5 years, with a tendency toward the
    displacement of existing social patterns.”
    [13] As discussed above, MMS did not adequately evaluate
    the consequences of drilling in these specific locations on
    bowhead whale populations. That same analysis applies to the
    effect the drilling plan will have on the bowhead whale har-
    vest and the important role this tradition plays in Inupiat cul-
    ture. MMS’s failure to consider the parameters of Shell’s plan
    15578          ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    results in an inadequate analysis of the impacts of this pro-
    posal on communities that rely on bowhead whales for subsis-
    tence. The EA itself notes that even if underwater noise does
    not cause a significant biological effect for the whales them-
    selves, “there could be a significant sociocultural effect if the
    bowheads do not migrate back” into the “migration corridor.”
    MMS acknowledges this possibility, but then comes to the
    inexplicable conclusion that this project can proceed without
    other modifications. The agency further states that “ideally,
    drilling and high resolution seismic activity would not deflect
    whales until . . . whalers had harvested whales,” but does not
    give any rationale explaining why it expects this ideal sce-
    nario will occur. The EA itself admits that “it is unknown
    what the increased level of effect of two proposed drillships
    and associated icebreakers and other attendant vessels would
    be.”
    [14] Without examining the possible level of disruption to
    the Inupiat harvest of bowhead whales, MMS offers only
    “conclusory assertions” that impacts will not be significant.
    See Ocean Advocates, 402 F.3d at 864-66 (holding that Army
    Corps of Engineers failed to take “hard look” where its
    assessment included only conclusory assertions and did not
    discuss contrary evidence). Accordingly, Petitioners correctly
    posit that the agency must conduct greater analysis of how
    Shell’s activities in these particular locations, using two drill-
    ships and two icebreakers, will affect the Inupiat’s reliance on
    the bowhead harvest.
    MMS asserts that any threat to the Inupiat’s subsistence
    whaling would be minimized through a conflict avoidance
    agreement. Again, the deficiencies in the agency’s analysis
    are not cured through its proposed mitigation measure. In
    order to rely on mitigation to obviate further analysis, the
    measure must be identified and its effectiveness analyzed.
    Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 
    241 F.3d at 733-36
     (hold-
    ing EIS must be prepared where monitoring and mitigation
    measures were uncertain). Additionally, “[m]itigation must be
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE                    15579
    discussed in sufficient detail to ensure that environmental
    consequences have been fairly evaluated.” Neighbors of
    Cuddy Mountain v. U.S. Forest Serv., 
    137 F.3d 1372
    , 1380
    (9th Cir. 1998) (internal quotation marks and citation omit-
    ted). The agency must provide analytic data on the efficacy of
    a proposed measure, and the court must decide whether it
    “will render such impacts so minor as to not warrant an EIS.”
    Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 
    241 F.3d at 734
    .
    [15] The conflict avoidance agreement process is too vague
    and uncertain as a mitigation measure to justify the agency’s
    decision not to engage in further analysis. Conflict avoidance
    agreements come about through a voluntary process and are
    renegotiated every year. The agency is not party to the pro-
    cess, and any agreement made is not legally binding. The EA
    itself notes that without an agreement, there are serious ques-
    tions about whether the project would have significant
    impacts on Inupiat communities. The agency states: “Without
    such conflict avoidance measures in place, significant impacts
    to the subsistence resources and hunts for bowhead whales,
    seals, and polar bears could occur.” It goes on to say: “Only
    a carefully constructed and monitored [conflict avoidance
    agreement] could produce some remedy to disturbances to
    bowhead whales and the subsistence hunt.” The language
    used by MMS reveals the real risks this project poses to the
    bowhead population and Inupiat communities. An annual vol-
    untary re-negotiation process does not sufficiently mitigate
    the concerns raised by Petitioners and acknowledged by the
    agency.
    [16] Simply because conflict avoidance agreements have
    been used effectively in the past does not mean that an agency
    can rely on them to cure inadequacies in the environmental
    assessment.4 MMS abdicates its responsibility for analyzing
    4
    Before drilling operations were stayed by this court in August 2007,
    Shell and the local whaling captains negotiated a year-long agreement that
    would have deferred drilling operations until after completion of the Nuiq-
    sut whale hunt.
    15580            ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    the effects on subsistence whaling by leaving it up to the par-
    ties to come up with their own agreement, outside of the
    NEPA review process. MMS does provide that, if the parties
    fail to reach an agreement, MMS may re-examine the situa-
    tion and make a “final determination on the adequacy of the
    measures taken to prevent unreasonable conflicts with subsis-
    tence harvests.” However, this provision is not sufficient to
    meet the agency’s obligations. There is still no analytical data
    that shows how the process would reduce the impact to whal-
    ing below the level of significance. See Nat’l Parks & Con-
    servation Ass’n, 
    241 F.3d at
    734 (citing Idaho Sporting
    Congress, 
    137 F.3d at 1151
    ). By relying on the uncertain out-
    come of the conflict avoidance agreement process, the agency
    deprives this court of its ability to review whether the measure
    is sufficiently protective. In sum, the agency is not relieved of
    its responsibility to conduct more specific analysis on how
    this project will affect the Inupiat harvest of bowhead whales.
    ii.   Other Subsistence Activities
    Shell’s activities will also affect other Inupiat subsistence
    resources, such as beluga whales, caribou, and fish. Petition-
    ers urge the agency to take a closer look at the impacts of
    exploration because of the proximity of the proposed activi-
    ties to the Inupiat hunting and fishing grounds. The EA’s
    comments focus almost entirely on the subsistence use of
    bowhead whales. It notes only in one sentence that “helicopter
    and aircraft supply flights have the potential to disturb caribou
    movements and alter the subsistence hunt.” The multi-sale
    EIS takes a cursory glance at these other animal populations,
    stating that drilling activities “could affect the availability of”
    beluga whales to subsistence hunters. The study further
    acknowledges that flight activity may disturb caribou popula-
    tions.5
    5
    In a separate agreement, Shell has agreed to keep helicopter traffic
    above 1,500 feet to minimize any interference with the caribou hunt.
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE             15581
    The biggest gap in the agency’s multi-sale EIS and EA is
    the lack of both information and analysis examining the
    impacts this project will have on fish populations. In analyz-
    ing fish populations, the EA acknowledges: “Given scientific
    uncertainty surrounding how several important fish species
    would react to varying levels of drilling program noise, we
    believe it possible there will be more than a minimal level of
    effect on some species.” MMS acknowledges that it “cannot
    concur” with Shell’s assurances that its activities “may have
    minimal to no impact on fish.” The agency goes on to state:
    The MMS also cannot concur that the effects on all
    fish species would be ‘short term’ or that these
    potential effects are insignificant, nor would they be
    limited to the ‘. . . localized displacement of fish
    . . .’, because they could persist for up to five months
    each year for three consecutive years and they could
    occur during critical times in the life cycle of impor-
    tant fish species.
    The MMS remains concerned that the potential
    adverse effects described for several fish species will
    occur to an unknown degree, however none are
    expected to exceed the level that would require three
    generations to recover (the threshold for a significant
    effect).
    After this lengthy discussion on concerns and gaps in the data,
    the EA’s abrupt conclusion that any potential effects will be
    insignificant is unsubstantiated. This is the type of “conclu-
    sory assertion” that is disfavored by this court because the
    agency has not provided any scientific data that justifies this
    position. See Ocean Advocates, 402 F.3d at 864.
    The EA notes that it does not have the data to examine the
    full effect of underwater noise on fish movement. When infor-
    mation necessary to determine the effects is readily available
    or easily gathered, the law requires that an agency gather such
    15582         ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    information. See Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 
    241 F.3d at 733
     (stating agency’s “lack of knowledge does not excuse
    the preparation of an EIS; rather it requires the [agency] to do
    the necessary work to obtain it.”). Here, MMS has not shown
    that this information is unattainable. If data on the impacts of
    fish is not readily available, then the agency must give a more
    complete explanation of how, in light of those gaps, it still
    believes this project would not cause a significant impact on
    fish and the communities that consume them.
    The EA ultimately concludes that Inupiat communities may
    suffer cultural consequences from drilling activities, but does
    not state whether these effects will be “significant.” Instead,
    the EA relies on mitigation measures in the hopes that they
    would ameliorate any harm done: “Required mitigation, mon-
    itoring, and conflict avoidance measures . . . would serve col-
    lectively to mitigate disturbance effects on Native lifestyles
    and subsistence practices and likely would mitigate any con-
    sequent impacts on sociocultural systems.” As discussed
    above, these mitigation measures do not go far enough to rec-
    tify the potential that Shell’s project will cause substantial
    harm to Inupiat communities on Alaska’s northern shore.
    [17] In sum, MMS failed to take a “hard look” at the
    impacts this plan will have on Inupiat subsistence activities.
    The agency notes the gaps in its data and the potential for
    serious consequences, but then comes to the unsubstantiated
    conclusion that any impacts will be insignificant. The agen-
    cy’s broad assertions are not supported by the record. See
    EPIC, 
    451 F.3d at 1009
     (agency must consider all relevant
    factors and provide a convincing statement of reasons to jus-
    tify its decision). Accordingly, MMS should create either a
    revised environmental analysis or, as necessary, an environ-
    mental impact statement, taking a closer look at how Shell’s
    drilling in these specific sites will affect Inupiat subsistence
    activities.
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE              15583
    3.   Impacts of Potential Crude Oil Spills
    [18] Despite any other insufficiencies, MMS’s environmen-
    tal analysis does adequately examine the impacts of a poten-
    tial crude oil spill. The EA states, “[f]or purposes of this EA
    analysis, no crude oil spills are assumed from exploration
    activities. This assumption is based on the low rate of explor-
    atory drilling blowouts per well drilled and the history of
    exploration spills on the Arctic OCS . . . .” Petitioners contend
    that this assumption is erroneous, and the agency must con-
    sider the likelihood of a spill in relationship to the harm such
    an event would cause. This argument is unavailing. The agen-
    cy’s assessment makes the proper inquiry into the risk of an
    oil spill, and no further analysis is required in relationship to
    this exploration plan.
    In the process of NEPA review, an agency should consider
    the “degree to which the possible effects on the human envi-
    ronment are highly uncertain or involve unique or unknown
    risks.” 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.27
    (b)(5). NEPA does not require
    consideration of risks that are “merely speculative” or “infini-
    tesimal.” No GWEN Alliance v. Aldridge, 
    855 F.2d 1380
    ,
    1386 (9th Cir. 1988); Ground Zero Ctr. for Non-Violent
    Action v. U.S. Dep’t of the Navy, 
    383 F.3d 1082
    , 1090 (9th
    Cir. 2004). An agency should assess the likelihood of a partic-
    ular risk along with the consequences of such an accident. See
    City of New York v. U.S. Dep’t of Transp., 
    715 F.2d 732
    , 746
    (9th Cir. 1983) (“It is only the risk of accident that might ren-
    der the proposed action environmentally significant. That cir-
    cumstance obliges the agency to undertake risk assessment:
    an estimate of both the consequences that might occur and the
    probability of their occurrence.”).
    Despite its initial assumption that an oil spill will not occur,
    the EA includes discussion of the effects of a potential spill
    on the Inupiat subsistence harvest and a variety of animal spe-
    cies. The EA also incorporates the multi-sale EIS’s extensive
    discussion of a potential spill. The multi-sale EIS recognizes
    15584          ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    that “[a] very large oil spill is an issue of concern to everyone.
    . . . A very large oil spill is a low-probability event with the
    potential for very high effects.” The EIS analyzes data from
    spills around the world, since very large spills in U.S. waters
    have been extremely rare. The document further considers the
    potential effects of “small” and “large” oil spills in the Beau-
    fort Sea region. Appended to the multi-sale EIS is a lengthy
    document entitled “The Information, Models and Assump-
    tions We Use to Analyze the Effects of Oil Spills in this EIS.”
    This report includes information on the history and behavior
    of spilled oil. In evaluating the risks of an oil spill, the agency
    has, over time, conducted extensive studies on the likelihood
    of oil spills in the Beaufort Sea. These include the 2002 and
    2006 Bercha Reports on the “Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence
    Estimators and their Variability for the Beaufort and Chukchi
    Seas.” The analysis of oil spill risks was updated in the EAs
    for both Lease Sale 195 and Lease Sale 202. There is no indi-
    cation that the agency erred in relying on these documents in
    its review of this specific project.
    Petitioners argue that extensive discussion of spills in
    MMS’s prior analyses and the requirement that an oil
    response plan be prepared is evidence that an oil spill is a rea-
    sonably foreseeable event. Under their logic, the EA should
    therefore have included analysis on the possibility of such a
    spill. Petitioners support this contention by citing to cases
    where an agency was required to consider even remote risks
    that could cause great harm. See, e.g., San Luis Obispo Moth-
    ers for Peace v. Nuclear Regulatory Comm’n, 
    449 F.3d 1016
    ,
    1030-31 (9th Cir. 2006) (holding that agency was unreason-
    able in categorically dismissing the possibility of a terrorist
    attack as “too remote and highly speculative” to warrant
    NEPA consideration). Petitioners also point out that, even if
    an oil spill is unlikely, the consequences could be great. Peti-
    tioners contend that the EA’s blanket “assumption” failed to
    adequately consider the relationship between the risk and the
    consequences of an oil spill.
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE             15585
    Petitioners’ position on this issue is flawed. The EA prop-
    erly tiers to the lengthy discussion of the risk and impacts of
    oil spills in the multi-sale EIS. This case may be distinguished
    from San Luis Obispo Mothers for Peace because here, the
    agency does not claim it has no obligation to consider this
    risk, but only that it has sufficiently done so in previous
    studies. There is no evidence that anything about this particu-
    lar project requires separate analysis on oil spills. No special
    risk creates the need for additional evaluation of factors that
    were not already considered in MMS’s prior studies.
    Although the language in the EA may not have been ideal,
    MMS’s “assumption” that there would not be an oil spill was
    supplemented with comprehensive studies on the likelihood
    and impact of such an event. Accordingly, the agency did not
    act arbitrarily and capriciously in its assessment of the poten-
    tial effects of an oil spill from this project.
    C.   Necessity of a Revised EA or an EIS
    MMS has violated NEPA by failing to take a “hard look”
    at the impacts of Shell’s proposal on bowhead whales and
    Inupiat subsistence activities. MMS has not provided a con-
    vincing statement of reasons to justify its decision not to com-
    plete an EIS. See Blue Mountains, 
    161 F.3d at 1211
    .
    Moreover, several of the regulatory significance criteria are
    triggered here. See 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.27
    ; Sierra Club v. U.S.
    Forest Serv., 
    843 F.2d 1190
    , 1193 (9th Cir. 1988) (holding
    that an agency’s decision not to prepare an EIS was “unrea-
    sonable” because record demonstrated that four of the regula-
    tory factors were implicated). Shell’s project is located in an
    increasingly fragile ecosystem and near the Arctic National
    Wildlife Refuge, an “ecologically critical area” under 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.27
    (b)(3). The contentious nature of the agen-
    cy’s internal communication during the review process dem-
    onstrates the controversy surrounding the project. See 
    id.
    § 1508.27(b)(4); see also Native Ecosystems Council, 428
    15586         ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    F.3d at 1240 (noting that a project is highly controversial if
    there is a substantial dispute about the effect of an action). As
    discussed above, the impact of activities at these particular
    sites poses an unknown risk to bowhead whales and Inupiat
    subsistence activities. See id. § 1508.27(5). The project could
    also have a serious effect on an endangered species: bowhead
    whales. See id. § 1508.27(b)(9). Finally, there is the potential
    for cumulatively significant impacts as the project continues
    through exploration and into the production phase, and the
    region continues to develop. See id. § 1508.27(b)(7).
    [19] In light of the potential for serious impacts on bow-
    head whales and Inupiat subsistence activities, the agency
    erred by not undertaking a more careful analysis before issu-
    ing a FONSI. Due to the inadequacies in this particular EA,
    there is uncertainty over whether the proposed project may
    have a significant impact. Accordingly we remand to the
    agency to either prepare a revised EA or, as necessary, an
    EIS.
    The statutory scheme does not preclude a finding that an
    EIS may be appropriate in these circumstances. MMS argues
    that the strict timelines in OCSLA indicate that an EIS is not
    a feasible option at the exploration stage. The agency only has
    thirty days to approve or disapprove of an exploration plan.
    
    43 U.S.C. § 1340
    (c)(1). Respondents argue that thirty days is
    not enough time to generate a full EIS. However, in passing
    OCSLA, Congress specifically provided that it did not alter an
    agency’s obligations under NEPA. See 
    43 U.S.C. § 1866
    (a);
    see also 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.232
    (c) (“The [agency] will evaluate
    the environmental impacts of the activities described in your
    proposed EP and prepare environmental documentation under
    [NEPA].”). This court has recognized that “NEPA may
    require an environmental impact statement at each stage: leas-
    ing, exploration, and production and development.” Vill. of
    False Pass v. Clark, 
    733 F.2d at 614
    .
    The agency may be correct that it is difficult for an agency
    to conduct a full EIS in only thirty days, but its argument that
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE              15587
    OCSLA precludes such a result is unconvincing. There is
    flexibility built into the regulatory scheme so that the agency
    can perform its full duties under NEPA. The thirty-day clock
    begins to run only when an exploration plan is deemed com-
    plete. 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.233
    (a). If the agency is able to identify
    gaps before that point, then it can request that information be
    added before the proposal is finalized. See 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.231
    (b). Additionally, at the end of the thirty-day review
    period, the agency may opt to require modifications to an EP
    if there are concerns that it does not comport with environ-
    mental standards. 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.233
    (b). These options give
    the agency additional time to consider a plan and compile an
    environmental impact statement, if necessary. To say simply
    that the agency only has thirty days to complete a full EIS is
    misleading. Here, since the agency’s decision to issue a
    FONSI without considering the environmental impacts to
    bowhead whales and subsistence resources was in error,
    MMS should prepare either a more thorough environmental
    analysis or an EIS, as necessary, examining the consequences
    of drilling at these specific locations. See Metcalf v. Daley,
    
    214 F.3d 1135
    , 1146 (9th Cir. 2000).
    III.   MMS’s Compliance With OCSLA
    [20] The agency’s approval of this project also violated
    OCSLA. OCSLA’s implementing regulations require that,
    when evaluating exploration plans, an agency should consider
    information about “proposed well location and spacing.” 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.203
    . Exploration plans must be “project specif-
    ic” and describe the “resources, conditions, and activities”
    that could be affected. 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.227
    . In particular, an
    EP must include “[a] map showing the surface location and
    water depth of each proposed well and the locations of all
    associated drilling unit anchors.” 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.211
    (b).
    Shell submitted the locations of the 2007 drilling sites, but did
    not specify where it wished to drill in 2008 and 2009. Shell
    noted that future drilling locations will depend on what is
    found in the first Sivulliq exploration. Without specific infor-
    15588          ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    mation about future well locations, the agency cannot meet its
    obligation to “review and approve proposed well location and
    spacing” in accord with 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.203
    . As a result, the
    agency erred by approving an EP for 2007-2009 without
    knowing where Shell would be drilling for the last two years.
    The agency is not saved by regulations that allow MMS to
    consider the impacts of drilling at subsequent locations when
    the company requests permits for those specific sites. See 
    30 C.F.R. §§ 250.410-250.418
    . These regulations stipulate that to
    obtain approval for a well, the applicant must have
    “[i]nclude[d] the well in [its] approved Exploration Plan.” 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.410
    (b). The wells for 2008 and 2009 were not
    included in Shell’s EP. The permit regulations are not an ade-
    quate mechanism enabling the agency to check Shell’s actions
    at a later date. MMS also points to 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.201
    (c),
    which enables the agency to relax certain informational
    requirements when:
    (1) Sufficient applicable information or analysis is
    readily available to MMS;
    (2) Other coastal or marine resources are not present
    or affected;
    (3) Other factors such as technological advances
    affect information needs; or
    (4) Information is not necessary or required for a
    State to determine consistency with their CZMA
    Plan.
    It is not clear how any of these sections would apply here. To
    the contrary, having specific information about well locations
    is critical to the agency’s ability to analyze the project’s envi-
    ronmental effects. MMS acted in contravention of the regula-
    tions by approving Shell’s three-year plan without
    determining the locations of the wells that would be drilled in
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE            15589
    that period. In order to comply with the regulations, the
    agency needs to consider the location of the proposed wells
    before it can approve the project for all three years.
    CONCLUSION
    [21] For the foregoing reasons, we VACATE the agency’s
    approval of Shell’s exploration plan and REMAND for the
    agency to prepare a revised EA or, as necessary, an EIS.
    Shell’s motion to lift the stay is DENIED as moot.
    VACATED AND REMANDED.
    BEA, Circuit Judge, dissenting:
    I respectfully dissent on two grounds. First, North Slope
    Borough and the Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission
    (“NSB”) and Resisting Environmental Destruction on Indige-
    nous Lands (“REDOIL”) filed their petitions for review after
    the time allowed by the applicable statute of limitations, and
    neither Congress nor this court provide NSB or REDOIL with
    an exception to the requirement of timely filing.
    Second, because the Minerals Management Service’s
    (“MMS”) approval of Shell’s exploration plan was neither
    arbitrary nor capricious, we have no power to overturn the
    agency action, and the majority’s efforts to do so contravene
    our recent en banc decision in The Lands Council v. McNair,
    
    537 F.3d 981
     (9th Cir. 2008).
    Jurisdiction
    We do not have jurisdiction over NSB and REDOIL’s peti-
    tions for review because the petitions were filed in this court
    more than 60 days after the agency action here on review:
    MMS’s approval of Shell Offshore, Inc.’s (“Shell”) explora-
    15590            ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    tion plan. In their petitions for review, NSB and REDOIL
    contend MMS failed to consider how Shell’s exploration plan
    would harm some Inupiat subsistence activities: to wit, the
    Inupiat practice of bowhead whale hunting. We lack jurisdic-
    tion over these petitions because it took NSB and REDOIL 96
    days to file the petitions they were required by statute to file
    within 60 days.
    At all times relevant here, the Outer Continental Shelf
    Lands Act (“OCSLA”), 
    43 U.S.C. § 1331
     et seq., provided:
    Any action of the Secretary specified in paragraph
    (1) or (2) shall only be subject to review pursuant to
    the provisions of this subsection . . . .
    
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (c)(4) (emphases added). “This subsection”
    by which “[a]ny action of the Secretary” may only be
    reviewed is 
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (c).
    
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (c)(2) makes clear the statute applies to
    “[a]ny action of the Secretary1 to approve . . . any exploration
    plan . . . .” and that such actions “shall be subject to judicial
    review only in a United States court of appeals for a circuit
    in which an affected State is located.” 
    Id.
     (emphases added).
    Thus, review under 
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (c) must be “judicial” in
    nature, because “any action” by the Secretary to approve an
    exploration plan “shall only” be subject to review pursuant to
    the mechanisms described in the provisions of 
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (c)—and those mechanisms are only judicial.2
    1
    MMS has the authority to approve exploration plans on behalf of the
    Secretary of the Interior. See 
    30 C.F.R. § 256
    .
    2
    Contrary to the majority’s assertion, 
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (c) does not
    mention or even raise the possibility of administrative review. We should
    not read such review into the statute, particularly when, as here, the statute
    includes opposing provisions. See Silvers v. Sony Pictures Ent., Inc., 
    402 F.3d 881
    , 885 (9th Cir. 2005) (en banc) (“The doctrine of expressio unius
    est exclusio alterius ‘as applied to statutory interpretation creates a pre-
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE                     15591
    Subsection 1349(c)(3) provides that “judicial review . . .
    shall be available only to a person who . . . files a petition for
    review of the Secretary’s action within sixty days after the
    date of such action. . . .” Accordingly, an MMS order approv-
    ing an exploration plan, as here, is reviewable “only” in a
    court of appeals and “only” when the petition for review is
    filed within 60 days. MMS approved Shell’s exploration plan
    on February 15, 2007. The last day to petition for review of
    the MMS decision was April 16, 2007, 60 days later. NSB
    and REDOIL filed their petitions for review in this court on
    May 22, 2007, and May 25, 2007, respectively.
    The majority ignores the plain text of the statute, and
    instead relies on the fact that on April 13, 2007, before filing
    their petitions for review in this court, NSB and REDOIL
    chose to file a purported administrative appeal with the Inte-
    rior Board of Land Appeals (“IBLA”) of MMS’s approval
    order—a filing that is not authorized by the relevant statute,
    
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    . They purported to do so pursuant to 
    30 C.F.R. § 290.2.3
     On May 4, 2007, IBLA “suspended” pro-
    sumption that when a statute designates certain persons, things, or man-
    ners of operation, all omissions should be understood as exclusions.’ ”).
    Thus, mention of “judicial review” must be interpreted as the only review
    allowed by statute. To allow administrative review is plainly to amend the
    statute by judicial writ.
    3
    
    30 C.F.R. § 290.2
     provides: “If you are adversely affected by a[n]
    [MMS] official’s final decision or order issued under” the relevant MMS
    regulations, “you may appeal that decision or order to the Interior Board
    of Land Appeals.” MMS sought dismissal of NSB’s and REDOIL’s IBLA
    administrative appeals because federal courts of appeals have exclusive
    jurisdiction to review the approval of an exploration plan under OCSLA.
    The majority states that “the IBLA declined to exercise its jurisdiction and
    stayed the administrative proceedings pending the outcome of” the instant
    petition for review. Op. at 15560. Actually, the IBLA’s order is unclear:
    the IBLA stated it would have no jurisdiction to hear this matter once the
    administrative record was filed in this court, but also stated the IBLA
    would immediately “suspend proceedings . . . pending the outcome of” the
    instant petition for review. Importantly, the IBLA did not decide it had
    15592             ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    ceedings on the administrative appeal pending the outcome of
    the instant petition for review.
    The majority holds the statutory 60-day filing period was
    “tolled” during NSB and REDOIL’s unauthorized administra-
    tive appeal. Accordingly, the majority holds NSB and
    REDOIL’s May 15 and May 22 petitions in this court were
    timely. The majority holds IBLA’s suspension of the adminis-
    trative appeal pending the outcome of the instant action is a
    reviewable final agency order and, thus, the 60-day period for
    NSB and REDOIL to file their petitions for review of MMS’s
    order approving the exploration plan began when IBLA sus-
    pended the unauthorized administrative appeal.
    The majority’s use of the word “tolling” here is inventive.
    The “tolling” the majority applies is different from any known
    concept of tolling by appeal or equitable tolling, which is per-
    haps why, as discussed below, the majority cites only inappo-
    site cases. Here, the question is not whether the time to file
    for review of MMS’s approval of Shell’s exploration plan was
    jurisdiction, but prudentially or otherwise decide not to exercise any such
    jurisdiction. Rather than determine it had jurisdiction, it observed it would
    have no jurisdiction upon filing of the record. Note: the IBLA did not say
    it would lose any jurisdiction it might have had. Indeed, it declined to rule
    one way or the other on the motion challenging its jurisdiction. This is a
    far cry from “the IBLA declined to exercise its jurisdiction”: the only
    action the IBLA took was to take the motions to dismiss and to stay
    “under advisement.”
    The only way to interpret the IBLA order, based on its actions as well
    as its words regarding the motions to dismiss and to stay, is that the IBLA
    understood it would lose any jurisdiction it had once the appeal was per-
    fected by the filing of the administrative record in this court, and anticipat-
    ing such filing, stayed proceedings pending the outcome of the instant
    petition for review. The IBLA was in error. The IBLA never had jurisdic-
    tion over this matter in the first place, and thus had no valid administrative
    appeal to stay, because § 1349 provides the courts of appeals with “exclu-
    sive” jurisdiction to hear petitions for review of MMS’s approval of an
    exploration plan.
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE                      15593
    extended by the administrative appeal. Rather, the question is
    whether the filing of an administrative appeal with IBLA sud-
    denly rendered MMS’s approval of the exploration plan,
    which constitutes a final appealable order, non-final—and,
    therefore, whether IBLA’s later suspension of the administra-
    tive appeal was itself a “final agency action” that restarted the
    60-day filing clock. See United States v. Ibarra, 
    502 U.S. 1
    ,
    4 n.2 (1991) (“[T]he issue is better described as whether the
    [60]-day period began to run on the date of the first order or
    on the date of the order denying the motion for reconsidera-
    tion, rather than as a matter of tolling. Principles of equitable
    tolling usually dictate that when a time bar has been sus-
    pended and then begins to run again upon a later event, the
    time remaining on the clock is calculated by subtracting from
    the full limitations period whatever time ran before the clock
    was stopped.”).
    Contrary to the majority’s assertion, IBLA’s suspension of
    proceedings cannot constitute a “final agency action” because
    a suspension of proceedings pending the outcome of collateral
    proceedings is, by definition, not final.4 See Bennett v. Spear,
    
    520 U.S. 154
    , 177-78 (1997) (“As a general matter, two con-
    ditions must be satisfied for agency action to be ‘final’: First,
    the action must mark the ‘consummation’ of the agency’s
    decisionmaking process—it must not be of a merely tentative
    or interlocutory nature. And second, the action must be one by
    which ‘rights or obligations have been determined,’ or from
    which ‘legal consequences will flow.’ ”). Nothing is more
    interlocutory than a suspension of proceedings—whether in
    review of an agency action or a divorce decree. Thus, the only
    4
    Indeed, how can the suspension of an appeal at the agency level be a
    reviewable final agency action? If we determine the suspension was within
    the agency’s discretion, it can be indefinite and there will never be an deci-
    sion! Here, for instance, if no administrative record were filed, the suspen-
    sion of the appeal would be indefinite. Even a decision by the circuit court
    would not fulfill the regulation’s requirement of filing an administrative
    record to oust agency jurisdiction.
    15594            ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    “final” agency action here was MMS’s approval of the explo-
    ration plan.5
    Further, the majority’s “tolling” theory is inapplicable as a
    matter of law because, although the Department of the Interior
    provides a general scheme for administrative appeals of MMS
    decisions pursuant to 
    30 C.F.R. § 290.2
     (the regulation on
    which NSB and REDOIL erroneously relied when filing their
    unauthorized administrative appeal), Congress expressly
    restricted the availability of review for MMS’s approval of an
    exploration plan to the court of appeals. See 
    43 U.S.C. § 1349
    (“Any action of the Secretary to approve . . . any exploration
    plan . . . under this subchapter shall be subject to judicial
    review only in a United States court of appeals . . . .”)
    (emphasis added). Thus, there is no statutory administrative
    review process during which a court may stay the running of
    OCSLA’s limitations period. NSB and REDOIL simply filed
    administrative appeals under general agency regulations, and
    those appeals clashed with a specific statutory prohibition of
    an appeal other than to a United States Court of Appeals. It
    should be that simple: the specific congressional statute
    trumps the general agency regulation. See Chevron USA, Inc.
    v. Natural Res. Def. Council, Inc., 
    467 U.S. 837
    , 842-43
    (1984) (“If the intent of Congress is clear, that is the end of
    the matter; for the court, as well as the agency, must give
    effect to the unambiguously expressed intent of Congress.”).
    Even if “tolling” somehow were to apply, under any recog-
    nized tolling theory the statute of limitations would have
    begun to toll on April 13, 2007, when NSB and REDOIL filed
    their administrative appeals. On April 13, 2007, only three
    days remained in the 60-day statutory filing period. Thus,
    when IBLA suspended NSB and REDOIL’s unauthorized
    5
    The petitioners are not misled. Their opening briefs are clear they peti-
    tion for review of MMS’s approval of the exploration plan, and not
    IBLA’s suspension of their administrative appeal. See Opening Br. of
    AWL and REDOIL at 1; Opening Br. of NSB at 4-5.*
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE                     15595
    administrative appeal on May 4, 2007, NSB and REDOIL
    would have had three days in which to file timely petitions for
    review in this court (by May 7, 2007). Their petitions were
    not filed until May 22, 2007 (REDOIL) and May 25, 2007
    (NSB). Thus, the petitions were filed late, even if one accepts
    the majority’s creative “tolling” theory.
    To support its tolling theory, the majority opinion relies on
    cases interpreting the Hobbs Act, 
    28 U.S.C. §§ 2341-51
    , to
    hold the tolling rule applicable under that statutory scheme
    also applies here. Cases based on the Hobbs Act, however—
    including the primary case cited by the majority, ICC v.
    Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers, 
    482 U.S. 270
     (1987)
    —are inapposite because: (1) the Hobbs Act simply does not
    apply to decisions of the Secretary of the Interior, whose
    authority is delegated to MMS, and (2) the rationale behind
    Hobbs Act tolling does not apply to a situation like this one.6
    1.    The Hobbs Act does not apply to actions by
    MMS or the Secretary of the Interior.
    Any tolling rule derived from an interpretation of the
    Hobbs Act is off base because the Hobbs Act does not apply
    to MMS. The Hobbs Act states “[t]he court of appeals (other
    than the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Cir-
    cuit) has exclusive jurisdiction to enjoin, set aside, suspend
    6
    I note Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers is inapposite for the addi-
    tional reason that, in Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers, there was no
    question the administrative review board had authority to take the admin-
    istrative appeal. See 
    482 U.S. at 276
    . The situation here, as discussed, is
    quite the contrary: the IBLA had no authority whatsoever to take an
    administrative appeal of an MMS exploration plan.
    The majority also cites Acura of Bellevue v. Reich, 
    90 F.3d 1403
     (9th
    Cir. 1996) in support of its “tolling” theory. Unlike Brotherhood of Loco-
    motive Engineers, Acura is not a Hobbs Act case. However, Acura is inap-
    posite because it did not involve a specific statutory provision, as here,
    that provides the courts of appeals with exclusive jurisdiction to hear peti-
    tions for review.
    15596          ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    (in whole or in part), or to determine the validity of” final
    orders from certain specific agencies—but not those within
    Department of the Interior, including MMS. On its face, the
    Hobbs Act applies only to final orders of: (1) the Federal
    Communications Commission; (2) the Secretary of Agricul-
    ture; (3) the Secretary of Transportation; (4) the Federal Mari-
    time Commission; (5) the Atomic Energy Commission; and
    (6) the Surface Transportation Board, and also (7) orders
    under section 812 of the Fair Housing Act. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2342
    .
    In some instances, an agency’s organic statutes may refer to
    the Hobbs Act as the appropriate statute for obtaining judicial
    review. See, e.g., 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (a)(1) (providing for judicial
    review of final orders of removal of aliens under the Hobbs
    Act). OCSLA, however, is not such a statute. Instead, OCSLA
    contains its own provisions for exclusive judicial review by
    the courts of appeals. Thus, a judicially-created tolling rule
    under the Hobbs Act does not apply to agency action taken by
    the Secretary of the Interior or MMS under OCSLA.
    Here, NSB and REDOIL simply may not have read
    OCSLA, 
    43 U.S.C. § 1331
     et seq., and filed an administrative
    appeal under a law that provides for review only by this court.
    Now they want a free pass. We should not give it to them:
    “As the saying goes, ‘rules is rules.’ ” Nat’l Sci. and Tech.
    Network, Inc. v. FCC, 
    397 F.3d 1013
    , 1014-15 (D.C. Cir.
    2005).
    2.   The justifications for Hobbs Act “tolling”
    do not apply here.
    Even were the Hobbs Act applicable to MMS’s final order,
    the underlying rationale for staying the running of the limita-
    tions period under the Hobbs Act does not apply to MMS
    approval of exploration plans under OCSLA. In the Hobbs
    Act cases, the agencies the court reviewed possessed statutory
    authority to conduct administrative reviews of their orders
    after the filing of a petition for rehearing or reconsideration
    with the agency. See, e.g., 
    49 U.S.C. § 722
    (c) (granting
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE                   15597
    administrative powers to review orders of the Department of
    Transportation); 
    46 U.S.C. § 304
    (b) (Federal Maritime Com-
    mission); 
    42 U.S.C. § 2239
    (b) (Atomic Energy Commission).
    Hence, in those cases, including those cited by the majority,
    it was consistent with Congress’s stated intent to stay the limi-
    tations period for judicial review of actions by those agencies
    because Congress gave those agencies statutory power and
    authority to review their own actions before another court did.
    In contrast, OCSLA and the organic statutes for the Depart-
    ment of the Interior do not provide for Interior or other
    agency administrative review of MMS decisions. The statu-
    tory scheme provides the Secretary of the Interior only with
    the general authority to “prescribe such rules and regulations
    as may be necessary to carry out” OCSLA, 
    43 U.S.C. § 1334
    ,
    but not to review an MMS order approving an exploration
    plan. Indeed, as discussed above, the OCSLA provision gov-
    erning the approval of exploration plans expressly limits
    review to a petition to the courts of appeal.
    Thus, we lack a statutory basis on which to allow tolling for
    an administrative appeal in the OCSLA context. Further, toll-
    ing here violates the clear intent of Congress that the Secre-
    tary “shall approve” exploration plans within 30 days. The
    majority’s holding that action on exploration plans may be
    administratively appealed to the IBLA and, thus—probably,
    almost always—decided over a period of time longer than 30
    days, defeats Congress’s express desire for rapid approval or
    denial of exploration plans.7 The justifications for Hobbs Act
    tolling simply do not apply to review of an exploration plan
    approval under OCSLA.
    7
    Congress stated its intent for OCSLA included “expedited exploration
    and development of the Outer Continental Shelf” and to “insure that the
    extent of oil and natural gas resources of the Outer Continental Shelf is
    assessed at the earliest practicable time.” 
    43 U.S.C. § 1802
    (1), (9)
    (emphases added).
    15598             ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    Finally, the Supreme Court has made clear that statutorily
    imposed times to file a notice of appeal (and, by extension, a
    petition for review) are jurisdictional and are not subject to
    equitable exceptions. See Bowles v. Russell, 
    127 S.Ct. 2360
    (2007).8 The majority does not claim there are grounds for
    equitable exceptions to the 60-day rule. Here, as discussed,
    we lack any statutory basis for “tolling.” Therefore, because
    OCSLA provides exclusive jurisdiction for review of MMS
    approval of exploration plans to the courts of appeals, because
    the Hobbs Act does not apply to petitions for review under
    OCSLA, and because the justifications for Hobbs Act tolling
    are not present in the context of this case, we do not have
    jurisdiction over NSB and REDOIL’s untimely petitions.
    Our lack of jurisdiction over NSB and REDOIL’s untimely
    petitions narrows the scope of our review because it elimi-
    nates from our consideration those issues that were not raised
    in the timely filed petition of the Alaska Wilderness League,
    the National Resources Defense Council, and the Pacific
    Environment (collectively “AWL”). Specifically, we lack
    jurisdiction over claims that MMS failed to take a “hard look”
    at the potential impact of Shell’s exploration plan on Inupiat
    subsistence hunting, as AWL did not raise this contention.
    We still must determine whether, as AWL did contend,
    MMS failed to take a “hard look” at the impact of Shell’s
    exploration plan on bowhead whales.
    8
    “Because Congress decides whether federal courts can hear cases at all,
    it can also determine when, and under what conditions, federal courts can
    hear them. . . . Bowles’ failure to file his notice of appeal in accordance
    with the statute therefore deprived the Court of Appeals of jurisdiction. . . .
    Today we make clear that the timely filing of a notice of appeal in a civil
    case is a jurisdictional requirement. . . . [T]his Court has no authority to
    create equitable exceptions to jurisdictional requirements . . . .” Bowles,
    
    127 S.Ct. at 2365-66
    .
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE                      15599
    Merits
    Under OCSLA, the Secretary of the Interior and, by delega-
    tion, MMS, are charged with ensuring the “vital national
    resource reserve” of the Outer Continental Shelf “be made
    available for expeditious and orderly development, subject to
    environmental safeguards.” 
    43 U.S.C. § 1332
    (3). Under the
    National Environmental Policy Act (“NEPA”), 
    42 U.S.C. § 4321
     et seq., the agency must utilize a staged decision-
    making process that conducts environmental review at each
    stage of a proposed action’s OCSLA review. See 
    40 C.F.R. § 1502.20
    .
    This case comes to us at stage three of NEPA analysis.9 At
    this stage, OCSLA requires—prior to lessee Shell commenc-
    ing exploration of potential oil or natural gas deposits—that
    such lessee must “submit an exploration plan to the Secretary
    for approval.” 
    43 U.S.C. § 1340
    (c)(1). If the Secretary finds
    the plan is consistent with OCSLA, OCSLA regulations, and
    the provisions of the lease, the exploration plan “shall be
    approved” within 30 days of submission. 
    Id.
    As the majority correctly observes, MMS prepared an ini-
    tial, 1500-page Environmental Impact Statement that dis-
    cussed potential environmental effects from development of
    each of Shell’s lease-sale sites (“multi-sale EIS”). MMS then
    prepared a supplemental, near-100-page Environmental
    Assessment (“EA”) that supplemented the multi-sale EIS for
    two of Shell’s lease plots about which MMS decided addi-
    tional information was needed. In agency parlance, this sup-
    plementing process is called “tiering.” “Tiering” means the
    9
    Stage one is preparation of a lease schedule, stage two is drafting the
    lease itself, and stage four is development of the lease property. See Tribal
    Village of Akutan v. Hodel, 
    869 F.2d 1185
    , 1186 (9th Cir. 1988) (explain-
    ing the four stages of NEPA analysis before deferring to the judgment of
    the Secretary of the Interior as to the adequacy of the environmental
    studies at issue). The instant petitions for review address stage three alone.
    15600            ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    agency bases its later analyses on its initial comprehensive
    analysis, instead of preparing another 1500 page EIS. Peti-
    tioners and the majority do not want MMS to use its extensive
    prior work to inform its decisions on individual leases, but to
    prepare a new, self-contained EIS10 for each lease Shell pro-
    poses to explore. This is worse than re-inventing the wheel:
    this is re-inventing the wheel for each wheel of the car.
    The process will be expensive, time-consuming, and
    largely duplicative, which is precisely why NEPA’s imple-
    menting regulations encourage “tiering” of NEPA documents
    —to “eliminate repetitive discussion of the same issues and to
    focus on the actual issues ripe for decision at each level of
    environmental review.” 
    40 C.F.R. § 1502.20
     (“Whenever a
    broad environmental impact statement has been prepared . . .
    the subsequent statement or environmental assessment need
    only summarize the issues discussed in the broader statement
    . . . .”). The agency’s use of tiering allows it to fulfill its
    NEPA obligations while complying with the strict 30-day
    turnaround time OCSLA requires. See 
    43 U.S.C. § 1340
    (c)(1). Here, following its tiered analysis, MMS issued
    a “Finding of No Significant Impact” (“FONSI”), which is the
    agency’s determination that the existing analyses are suffi-
    cient and a new, start-from-scratch EIS (or “revised” EA) is
    unnecessary. See 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.9
    (a)(1).
    The majority concludes MMS failed to include a suffi-
    ciently detailed analysis of the biological effects of Shell’s
    exploration plan on bowhead whales, and that its order
    approving the plan was therefore arbitrary and capricious. The
    majority holds the agency should have prepared a new, self-
    10
    The majority alternatively permits the agency to prepare a “revised”
    EA instead of a wholly new EIS. However, the majority does not explain
    how or whether its demand for a “revised” EA is analytically distinguish-
    able from its demand for a new EIS. Further, whether the majority requires
    MMS to prepare a new EIS or a “revised” EA does not change the fact
    the agency gave the exploration plan a sufficiently “hard look” and so did
    not abuse its discretion by approving the exploration plan.
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE            15601
    contained EIS (or “revised” EA) in response to Shell’s explo-
    ration plan, rather than the two-lease EA it prepared, which
    tiered to the multi-sale EIS.
    MMS conducted a thorough review to determine whether
    its two-lease EA was sufficient fully to analyze Shell’s explo-
    ration plan. Pursuant to regulations, MMS considered the
    “significance” of Shell’s proposal in terms of “context” and
    “intensity.” See 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.27
    . This means the agency
    considered, in relevant part: (1) whether, after a “hard look,”
    Shell’s exploration plan was likely to impact bowhead whales
    in a significant manner; (2) whether the likely consequences
    of the drilling plan were “highly controversial”; (3) whether
    the agency’s identification of “cumulatively significant
    impacts” on bowhead whales required a separate EIS or dif-
    ferent EA; and (4) whether Shell needed to identify the pre-
    cise locations of each well it planned to drill. The majority
    holds each of these considerations requires the agency to pro-
    duce a supplemental EIS or “revised” EA, and reverses the
    agency’s order. For the reasons discussed below, with respect,
    the majority is in error. We should deny the petition.
    1.   MMS gave the potential effects of Shell’s exploration
    plan on bowhead whales a “hard look.”
    The majority concludes MMS’s analysis of the effect on
    bowhead whales of the proposed exploration plan was insuffi-
    cient for the agency to approve the exploration plan without
    requiring a new, separate EIS (or “revised” EA) for each lease
    site because the agency did not give the plan a “hard look.”
    We will find an agency gave an environmental issue a “hard
    look” under NEPA if the agency puts forth a “ ‘convincing
    statement of reasons’ that explain why the project will impact
    the environment no more than insignificantly.” Ocean Advo-
    cates v. United States Army Corps of Eng’rs, 
    402 F.3d 846
    ,
    864 (9th Cir. 2005). This “statement” may not be a mere con-
    clusory assertion. 
    Id.
    15602          ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    The majority concludes the 1500-page multi-sale EIS and
    100-page “tiered” EA it prepared were insufficient to consti-
    tute a “hard look” because—says the majority, not the expert
    agency—the EA and multi-sale EIS were too generalized to
    consider adequately the impact of Shell’s planned activities
    on bowhead whales. According to the majority, it was not
    enough for the agency to analyze studies regarding the impact
    of the type of noise Shell’s equipment would produce on bow-
    head whales as they swim by; in the majority’s “expertise,”
    the agency failed to analyze such vital additional noise-related
    consequences of drilling as the noise of two drillships with
    two icebreakers (versus the noise of two drillships with one
    icebreaker), and the noise of cracking ice.
    Sitting en banc, we recently held in a similar case that, con-
    trary to the majority’s position, “it is not our proper role” to
    “make fine-grained judgments” about the weight of specific
    studies on which an environmental agency relies. The Lands
    Council v. McNair, 
    537 F.3d 981
    , 993 (9th Cir. 2008). Rather,
    “we are to be ‘most deferential’ when the agency is ‘making
    predictions, within its area of special expertise, at the frontiers
    of science.’ ” 
    Id.
    In Lands Council, we affirmed a Forest Service plan to
    regrow an old-growth forest area against a challenge that con-
    tended the Forest Service failed to confirm its statistical mod-
    eling with long term, on-the-ground observation. We
    recognized that, “as non-scientists,” we need only ensure the
    Forest Service analyzes the issue based on “studies that the
    agency, in its expertise, deems reliable.” 
    Id. at 994
    . In other
    words, we do not “assess[ ] the quality and detail” of the
    studies on which the agency relies. 
    Id. at 993
    . Rather, “we . . .
    conduct a ‘particularly deferential review’ of an ‘agency’s
    predictive judgments about the areas that are within the agen-
    cy’s field of discretion and expertise as long as they are rea-
    sonable.’ ” 
    Id.
     Our role is merely to ensure the agency has
    not: (1) “relied on factors which Congress has not intended it
    to consider,” (2) “entirely failed to consider an important
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE             15603
    aspect of the problem,” or (3) “offered an explanation for its
    decision that runs counter to the evidence before the agency
    or an explanation that is so implausible that it could not be
    ascribed to a difference in view or the product of agency
    expertise.” 
    Id.
    None of these factors are present here. The documents
    MMS utilized in its analysis were comprehensive. The 1500-
    page multi-sale EIS contains a detailed analysis of icebreak-
    ers’ potential effects on bowheads, and finds the effect of ice-
    breaker noise on bowheads is likely to be “short-term” and
    not disruptive of migration patterns. The multi-sale EIS also
    contains a comprehensive 37-page analysis of all possible
    impacts from drilling and other oil and gas related activities
    on bowhead whales, reviewing studies on the biological sig-
    nificance of noise as it related to bowheads. The EIS notes
    “there has been no documented evidence that noise . . . would
    serve as a barrier to migration.”
    The EA, which was tiered to the multi-sale EIS, analyzed
    the biological significance of exploratory drilling on whales,
    with the advantage of knowledge of Shell’s specific plans. It
    provided detailed information regarding the specific types of
    drilling and ice-management vessels Shell plans to use and
    how it intends to use them. All the studies to which they
    referred considered responses of bowhead whales to the noise
    from drillships along with noise from ice management ves-
    sels. The EA discussed icebreaker noise, the effect on bow-
    heads of noise from drilling and ice management, and the
    National Marine Fisheries Service’s conclusion that explor-
    atory drilling and associated activities would not jeopardize
    bowhead whales, which it based in turn on an analysis of ice-
    breaker and ice-management noise in addition to drilling
    noise. In fact, the EA conducted a noise analysis specific to
    the particular drilling vessels (the Kulluk and Frontier Discov-
    erer) and the particular ice-breakers (the Kapitan Dranitzyn
    and Vladimir Ignatyuk) Shell plans to use.
    15604         ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    The EA also requires Shell to measure and mitigate sound
    levels in specific operating environments. Specifically, the
    effects on bowhead whales will be carefully monitored
    through methods including aerial surveys; if there is any indi-
    cation bowheads are being displaced from important habitats,
    the agency retains the authority to require Shell to modify its
    operations to prevent the threat of serious, irreparable harm to
    the whales.
    If one substitutes the Forest Service’s sufficient statistical
    modeling simulation in Lands Council for MMS’s purport-
    edly insufficient simulation of noise effects here, and the
    unnecessary on-the-ground observation by the Forest Service
    in Lands Council for the purportedly necessary on-site noise
    measurement here, one cannot help but conclude the panel
    majority here is overruling Lands Council sub silentio.
    The majority holds simulations of noise effects on bowhead
    whales are not enough; the agency must actually go and mea-
    sure the effect of noise on-site in an “uncontrolled setting.”
    The EIS and EA studies that do exist, according to the major-
    ity, are insufficient because they involve two drillships with
    one icebreaker ship, and the situation here involves two ice-
    breaker ships (nevermind the fact the agency analyzed the sta-
    tistics for each of the two icebreaker ships Shell plans to use).
    And the agency’s proposal to monitor the environmental
    effects of Shell’s plan is not good enough; according to the
    majority’s environmental “expertise,” the agency should have
    mandated “alternative migration measures” or prepared a full
    EIS (or “revised” EA). This is precisely the analysis Lands
    Council rejected. See 
    537 F.3d at 1001
     (“[T]o require [an
    environmental agency] to affirmatively present every uncer-
    tainty in an EIS would be an onerous requirement, given that
    experts in every scientific field routinely disagree; such a
    requirement might inadvertently prevent the [agency] from
    acting due to the burden it would impose.”).
    MMS gave a “hard look,” by any stretch of the term, to
    whether Shell’s plans would disrupt the bowhead whale’s
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE            15605
    migratory habits. The expert agency to which Congress dele-
    gated its authority concluded Shell’s plan would not disrupt
    the bowhead whales to an extent necessary to require an addi-
    tional costly EIS (or “revised” EA). The majority would
    replace the “hard look” standard with one that requires the
    agency to address every possible post-hoc consideration or
    eventuality. This not what the statute demands—“[N]one of
    NEPA’s statutory provisions or regulations requires [an envi-
    ronmental agency] to affirmatively present every uncertainty
    in its EIS,” 
    id.
     at 1001—and such a rule would render impos-
    sible Congress’s express requirement in OCSLA that the anal-
    ysis be completed in 30 days. Thus, with respect, the
    majority’s analysis is incorrect on this ground.
    2.   The potential effects identified in the multi-sale EIS and
    EA are not “highly controversial.”
    If a proposed exploration plan is “highly controversial,” a
    new, site-specific EIS (or “revised” EA) may be required. 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.27
    . The majority contends MMS erred by fail-
    ing to prepare a site-specific EIS (or “revised” EA) due to
    “[t]he contentious nature of the agency’s internal communica-
    tion during the review process.” This is based on a handful of
    complaints from a few agency scientists who opposed the
    agency’s final determination.
    A plan is “highly controversial,” and thus in need of a new
    EIS (or “revised” EA), only if there is a “substantial dispute”
    about the “size, nature, or effect” of the proposed act—and
    not the mere “existence of opposition.” Native Ecosystems
    Council v. United States Forest Serv., 
    428 F.3d 1233
    , 1240
    (9th Cir. 2005) (emphasis added). Internal disagreement alone
    is not enough to render an agency-approved plan “highly con-
    troversial,” because “[w]hen specialists express conflicting
    views, we defer to the informed discretion of the agency.”
    Envtl. Prot. Info. Ctr. v. United States Forest Serv., 
    451 F.3d 1005
    , 1017 (9th Cir. 2006). As this court has explained,
    “[s]imply because a challenger can cherry pick information
    15606           ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    and data out of the administrative record to support its posi-
    tion does not mean that a project is highly controversial . . . .”
    Native Ecosystems Council, 
    428 F.3d at 1240
    . “Not only
    would such a standard deter candid disclosure of negative
    information, it does not follow that the presence of some neg-
    ative effects necessarily rises to the level of demonstrating a
    significant effect on the environment.” 
    Id.
    Thus, that qualified experts may disagree about the impor-
    tance of certain data does not necessarily create a substantial
    enough controversy to undermine the EIS or EA the agency
    prepared. Otherwise, “any information included in an EA and
    its supporting NEPA documents that admits impacts on wild-
    life species and their habitat would trigger the preparation of
    an EIS.”11 
    Id.
     Thus, this court has “decline[d] to interpret
    NEPA as requiring the preparation of an EIS any time that a
    federal agency discloses adverse impacts on wildlife species
    or their habitat or acknowledges information favorable to a
    party that would prefer a different outcome.” 
    Id.
    Accordingly, the majority is incorrect that the agency’s
    action was so “highly controversial” that preparation of an
    EIS was required. Indeed, the fact that the agency considered
    such dissenting views underscores what a “hard look” the pro-
    posal was given. See 
    id. at 1241
     (“A ‘hard look’ should, of
    course, involve the discussion of adverse impacts. A ‘hard
    look’ does not dictate a soft touch or brush-off of negative
    effects.”). However, “such information does not automatically
    make the project ‘highly controversial’ . . . for the purposes
    of determining whether” a new EIS (or “revised” EA) is nec-
    essary. 
    Id.
    On the contrary, neither the majority nor the parties identify
    systemic failures in the agency’s analysis, or any potential
    11
    As discussed above, the majority has not analytically distinguished
    between its demand MMS prepare a new EIS or a “revised” EA.
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE             15607
    effects it might avoid by the collection of more data. The
    agency did not err.
    3.   There is no need for an EIS to analyze“cumulatively
    significant impacts.”
    The majority asserts a supplemental EIS (or “revised” EA)
    was necessary because “there is the potential for cumulatively
    significant impacts.” “Cumulatively significant impacts” are
    environmental effects from multiple activities, each too small
    to create a disturbance, but that together create a measurable
    environmental effect.
    Here, the multi-sale EIS, along with the EA, show the
    agency gave substantial consideration to the cumulative
    impacts from the proposed activities. Section V of the multi-
    sale EIS contains an 85-page discussion of cumulative
    impacts. Using a 5-step analysis, the multi-sale EIS: (1) iden-
    tified “the potential effects of the Beaufort Sea multiple sale
    on the natural resources and human environment that may
    occur in the Beaufort Sea, on the North Slope, and along the
    oil-transportation route”; (2) “analyze[d] other past, present,
    and reasonably foreseeable future oil-development activity on
    the North Slope/Beaufort Sea . . . ”; (3) “consider[ed] effects
    from other actions (sport harvest, commercial fishing, subsis-
    tence hunting, and loss of overwintering range, etc.)”; (4) “at-
    tempt[ed] to quantify effects by estimating the extent of the
    effects . . . and how long effects would last”; and (5)
    “weigh[ed] more heavily other activities that are more certain
    and geographically in the [zone nearest to shore] and . . . ana-
    lyz[ed] more intensively those effects that are of greatest con-
    cern.” (emphasis added). The EA updated the above-
    described analysis and included information on the potential
    effects from claimed global warming. The cumulative effects
    analysis considered the projected effects of oil development
    and production under all of the leases covered by the multi-
    sale EIS, past development and production, reasonably fore-
    15608          ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    seeable development and production, and even speculative
    development and production prospects.
    Relying on its previous cumulative impact analyses, the EA
    reasonably determined “the incremental contribution of the
    proposed activities to cumulative impacts is expected to be
    quite small, and thus not significant.” The EA further
    observed that “[t]he activities proposed in [Shell’s exploration
    plan] represent a small portion of the projected activities orig-
    inally analyzed for a Beaufort Sea lease sale.” As one agency
    scientist stated in an e-mail, because there is no new informa-
    tion to be discovered in an additional EIS, “[w]e do not need
    to reanalyze all cumulative impacts.”
    Accordingly, the EA and the documents to which it tiered
    articulated a careful and extensive cumulative effects analysis.
    The MMS reasonably concluded potential additional cumula-
    tive effects were not significant enough to require a costly and
    time-consuming new EIS (or “revised” EA), which would
    have made compliance with Congress’s 30-day OCSLA
    approval mandate impossible.
    4. Shell did not need to specify the location of each
    drilling well prior to approval of its exploration plan.
    Shell’s exploration plan included the locations of the four
    wells it planned to drill during the first of three years of drill-
    ing. The plan explained Shell intended to drill wells on addi-
    tional prospects during the final two years of the plan. The
    precise location and extent of drilling in the final two years,
    however, depended in part on the resources found during the
    first year of drilling.12 The majority incorrectly concludes
    OCSLA and its implementing regulations require Shell’s
    exploration plan to include the specific locations of every well
    that will be drilled.
    12
    This seems to make sense. Should the oil company commit to drill
    next to what turns out to be a dry well?
    ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE                  15609
    OCSLA requires that an exploration plan include, “in the
    degree of detail which the Secretary may by regulation
    require,” among other things, “the general location of each
    well to be drilled.” 
    43 U.S.C. § 1340
    (c)(3)(C) (emphasis
    added). The agency’s regulations require an exploration plan
    that includes “[a] map showing the surface location and water
    depth of each proposed well and the locations of all associated
    drilling unit anchors.” 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.211
    . Here, Shell knew
    of and proposed four wells “to be drilled,” and provided a
    map with the required information for those four wells. This
    is sufficient under the regulation. The majority’s demand
    Shell provide exact locations of wells before approval of its
    exploration plan, when those exact locations depend on what
    happens with the earlier wells which must be explored pursu-
    ant to the exploration plan, is a Catch-22.
    Under the exploration plan approved by MMS, should
    Shell seek to drill at sites other than the four specified in its
    original exploration plan, it will need to obtain a permit to
    drill before doing so. 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.281
    (b). Likewise, all
    supplemental exploration plans the Regional Supervisor deter-
    mines are likely to result in a significant change in the
    impacts previously identified and evaluated in the original
    exploration plan will be subject to the same procedures for
    approval as the original exploration plan. 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.285
    (c). Thus, Shell will be required to supplement its
    exploration plan with information regarding those additional
    drilling sites.13
    The agency’s interpretation of its own regulations to permit
    an entity to determine the exact location of future wells based
    on what it discovers in the first year of exploitation is consis-
    tent with the statute and its regulations and is entitled to sub-
    stantial deference. Thomas Jefferson Univ. v. Shalala, 512
    13
    Shell would also be required to submit a revised exploration plan if
    it proposes to “[c]hange the surface location of a well.” 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.283
    (a)(2).
    15610          ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE
    U.S. 504, 512 (1994); see also Chevron USA, Inc. v. Natural
    Res. Def. Council, 
    467 U.S. 837
    , 843 (1984) (“We have long
    recognized that considerable weight should be accorded to an
    executive department’s construction of a statutory scheme it
    is entrusted to administer . . . .”). Any drilling beyond the spe-
    cific sites approved in Shell’s exploration plan would have to
    undergo separate MMS review pursuant to 
    30 C.F.R. § 250.413
    (h), which requires the applicant for a permit to drill
    to submit a report of conditions as the proposed site. Thus, the
    agency’s decision not to require this information now, but
    instead to require it later when the information is available,
    was not arbitrary and capricious.
    Conclusion
    In the statutorily required 30-day period MMS had to
    approve or deny Shell’s request for an exploration permit, the
    agency parsed nearly 1,600 pages of in-depth scientific analy-
    sis. This voluminous study—a “hard look” by any rule—
    revealed that, while the drilling project might have some
    small impact on the environment, that impact was not signifi-
    cant enough for MMS to require a costly, time-consuming,
    duplicative EIS or “revised” EA. This analysis was neither
    arbitrary nor capricious, and is entitled to deference.
    I’m afraid the majority has substituted its “expertise” in
    environmental science for that of the expert agency to which
    Congress entrusted primary analytic responsibility, and in the
    process has overruled an en banc decision and nullified Con-
    gress’s express 30-day OCSLA approval requirement. We
    should not do any of this. Accordingly, for the reasons dis-
    cussed above, I would hold we lack jurisdiction over NSB and
    REDOIL’s untimely petitions for review, and that MMS’s
    approval of Shell’s exploration permit without an additional
    EIS or “revised” EA was not arbitrary and capricious.
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 07-71457

Filed Date: 11/19/2008

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 10/14/2015

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