Virginia Duncan v. Rob Bonta ( 2021 )


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  •                  FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    VIRGINIA DUNCAN; RICHARD LEWIS;           No. 19-55376
    PATRICK LOVETTE; DAVID
    MARGUGLIO; CHRISTOPHER                       D.C. No.
    WADDELL; CALIFORNIA RIFLE &               3:17-cv-01017-
    PISTOL ASSOCIATION, INC., a                  BEN-JLB
    California corporation,
    Plaintiffs-Appellees,
    OPINION
    v.
    ROB BONTA, in his official capacity
    as Attorney General of the State of
    California,
    Defendant-Appellant.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Southern District of California
    Roger T. Benitez, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted En Banc June 22, 2021
    Pasadena, California
    Filed November 30, 2021
    Before: Sidney R. Thomas, Chief Judge, and Susan P.
    Graber, Richard A. Paez, Marsha S. Berzon, Sandra S.
    Ikuta, Mary H. Murguia, Paul J. Watford, Andrew D.
    Hurwitz, Ryan D. Nelson, Patrick J. Bumatay and
    Lawrence VanDyke, Circuit Judges.
    2                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Opinion by Judge Graber;
    Concurrence by Judge Graber;
    Concurrence by Judge Berzon;
    Concurrence by Judge Hurwitz;
    Dissent by Judge Bumatay;
    Dissent by Judge VanDyke
    SUMMARY *
    Second Amendment
    The en banc court reversed the district court’s summary
    judgment and remanded for entry of judgment in favor of
    Defendant Rob Bonta, Attorney General for the State of
    California, in an action raising a facial challenge to
    California Penal Code section 32310, which prohibits, with
    certain exceptions, possession of large-capacity magazines,
    defined as those that can hold more than ten rounds of
    ammunition.
    California law allows owners of large-capacity
    magazines to modify them to accept ten rounds or fewer.
    Owners also may sell their magazines to firearm dealers or
    remove them from the state. And the law provides several
    exceptions to the ban on large-capacity magazines, including
    possession by active or retired law enforcement officers,
    security guards for armored vehicles, and holders of special
    weapons permits.
    *
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It
    has been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                          3
    Plaintiffs, who include persons who previously acquired
    large-capacity magazines lawfully, bring a facial challenge
    to California Penal Code section 32310. They argue that the
    statute violates the Second Amendment, the Takings Clause,
    and the Due Process Clause.
    The court applied a two-step framework to review the
    Second Amendment challenge, asking first whether the
    challenged law affects conduct protected by the Second
    Amendment, and if so, what level of scrutiny to apply. The
    court noted that ten sister circuits have adopted a
    substantially similar two-step test. The court assumed,
    without deciding, that California’s law implicates the
    Second Amendment, and joining its sister circuits that have
    unanimously applied intermediate scrutiny to other laws
    banning or restricting large-capacity magazines, determined
    that intermediate scrutiny applied because the ban imposed
    only a minimal burden on the core Second Amendment right
    to keep and bear arms. Applying intermediate scrutiny, the
    court held that section 32310 was a reasonable fit for the
    important government interest of reducing gun violence.
    The statute outlaws no weapon, but only limits the size of
    the magazine that may be used with firearms, and the record
    demonstrates (a) that the limitation interferes only minimally
    with the core right of self-defense, as there is no evidence
    that anyone ever has been unable to defend his or her home
    and family due to the lack of a large-capacity magazine; and
    (b) that the limitation saves lives. The court noted that in the
    past half-century, large-capacity magazines have been used
    in about three-quarters of gun massacres with 10 or more
    deaths and in 100 percent of gun massacres with 20 or more
    deaths, and more than twice as many people have been killed
    or injured in mass shootings that involved a large-capacity
    magazine as compared with mass shootings that involved a
    smaller-capacity magazine. Accordingly, the ban on legal
    4                    DUNCAN V. BONTA
    possession of large-capacity magazines reasonably
    supported California’s effort to reduce the devastating
    damage wrought by mass shootings.
    The court held that section 32310 does not, on its face,
    effect a taking. The government acquires nothing by virtue
    of the limitation on the capacity of magazines, and because
    owners may modify or sell their nonconforming magazines,
    the law does not deprive owners of all economic use.
    Plaintiffs’ due process claim essentially restated the takings
    claim, and it failed for the same reasons.
    Concurring, Judge Graber stated that as the majority
    opinion explains, District of Columbia v. Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
     (2008), does not provide a clear framework for deciding
    whether a statute does or does not violate the Second
    Amendment. But by repeatedly drawing an analogy to the
    First Amendment’s Free Speech Clause, Heller strongly
    suggests that intermediate scrutiny can apply to the Second
    Amendment, too. Accordingly, reasonable restrictions on
    the time, place, or manner of exercising the Second
    Amendment right to keep and bear arms are permissible if
    they leave open ample alternative means of exercising that
    right, the central component of which is individual self-
    defense. Applying those principles here, intermediate
    scrutiny was the appropriate standard for assessing
    California’s ban on large-capacity magazines. Other circuits
    have recognized, and Judge Graber agreed, that a ban on
    large-capacity magazines leaves open ample alternative
    means of self-defense.
    Concurring, Judge Berzon, joined by Judges Thomas,
    Paez, Murguia, Watford and Hurwitz, wrote separately to
    respond to Judge Bumatay’s dissent, which advocated a
    “text, history, and tradition” approach to Second
    Amendment legal claims. In connection with her response,
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                          5
    Judge Berzon offered a brief theoretical and historical
    defense of the two-step, tiered scrutiny approach used by
    eleven of the federal courts of appeals in
    Second Amendment cases.             Judge Berzon hoped to
    demonstrate that the notion that judges can avoid so-called
    subjectivity more successfully under the “text, history, and
    tradition” approach than under the two-step, tiered scrutiny
    analysis was a simplistic illusion. Rather than representing
    a “much less subjective” framework for decisionmaking in
    Second Amendment cases involving discrete arms
    regulations, the “text, history, and tradition” test obscures
    the myriad indeterminate choices that will arise in most such
    cases. The tiered scrutiny approach, in contrast, serves to
    guide and constrain a court’s analysis in Second Amendment
    disputes regarding discrete arms regulations, as it has done
    for numerous other constitutional provisions. Additionally,
    the notion that text, history, and, especially, “tradition” are
    objectively ascertainable disregards what linguists,
    historians, and anthropologists have long recognized:
    language can be indeterminate, especially as time passes;
    ascertaining what happened in the past is contingent and
    variable, because both the data available and the means of
    structuring and analyzing that data vary over time; and
    “tradition” is a term with little stable meaning, both as to the
    time period it takes for a “tradition” to become established
    and as to the individuals or communities whose habits and
    behaviors are said to establish a “tradition.”
    Concurring, Judge Hurwitz wrote that he was reluctantly
    compelled to respond to the dissent of Judge VanDyke.
    Judge Hurwitz stated that judges can respectfully disagree
    on whether the measures California has adopted violate the
    Second Amendment. But an attack on the personal motives
    of the members of this court who reach the same result in
    this case as every other Circuit to address this issue neither
    6                    DUNCAN V. BONTA
    advances the court’s discourse nor gives intellectual support
    to the legal positions argued by Judge VanDyke.
    Dissenting, Judge Bumatay, joined by Judges Ikuta and
    R. Nelson, stated that the tiers-of-scrutiny approach utilized
    by the majority functions as nothing more than a black box
    used by judges to uphold favored laws and strike down
    disfavored ones. While the court can acknowledge that
    California asserts a public safety interest, it cannot bend the
    law to acquiesce to a policy that contravenes the clear
    decision made by the American people when they ratified
    the Second Amendment. Judge Bumatay believes that this
    court should have dispensed with the interest-balancing
    approach and hewed to what the Supreme Court told the
    courts to do in the watershed case, District of Columbia v.
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    , 595 (2008), which provided clear
    guidance to lower courts on the proper analytical framework
    for adjudicating the scope of the Second Amendment right.
    That approach requires an extensive analysis of the text,
    tradition, and history of the Second Amendment, rather than
    the tiers-of-scrutiny approach used by the majority. Under
    that approach, the outcome is clear. Firearms and magazines
    capable of firing more than ten rounds have existed since
    before the Founding of the nation. They enjoyed widespread
    use throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. They
    number in the millions in the country today. With no
    longstanding prohibitions against them, large-capacity
    magazines are thus entitled to the Second Amendment’s
    protection.
    Dissenting, Judge VanDyke largely agreed with Judge
    Bumatay’s dissent. Judge VanDyke stated that the majority
    of this court distrusts gun owners and thinks the Second
    Amendment is a vestigial organ of their living constitution.
    Those views drive this Circuit’s caselaw ignoring the
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         7
    original meaning of the Second Amendment and fully
    exploiting the discretion inherent in the Supreme Court’s
    cases to make certain that no government regulation ever
    fails the court’s laughably “heightened” Second Amendment
    scrutiny. This case is the latest demonstration that the
    Circuit’s current test is too elastic to impose any discipline
    on judges who fundamentally disagree with the need to keep
    and bear arms. Responding to Judge Hurwitz’s claim that
    judges’ personal views about the Second Amendment and
    guns have not affected the Ninth Circuit’s jurisprudence,
    Judge VanDyke argued this is simply not plausible when
    viewed against the backdrop of our circuit’s Second
    Amendment decisions, including Judge Hurwitz’s own
    concurrence in this case. Judge VanDyke consequently
    suggested two less manipulable tests the Supreme Court
    should impose on lower courts for analyzing government
    regulations burdening Second Amendment rights. First, the
    Supreme Court should elevate and clarify Heller’s “common
    use” language and explain that when a firearm product or
    usage that a state seeks to ban is currently prevalent
    throughout our nation (like the magazines California has
    banned here), then strict scrutiny applies. Second, the Court
    should direct lower courts like this one to compare one
    state’s firearm regulation to what other states do (here a
    majority of states allow what California bans), and when
    most other states don’t similarly regulate, again, apply strict
    scrutiny.
    8                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    COUNSEL
    Samuel P. Siegel (argued) and Helen H. Hong, Deputy
    Solicitors General; John D. Echeverria, Deputy Attorney
    General; Mark R. Beckington and Heather Hoesterey,
    Supervising Deputy Attorneys General; Thomas S.
    Patterson, Senior Assistant Attorney General; Michael J.
    Mongan, Solicitor General; Rob Bonta, Attorney General;
    Office of the Attorney General, Sacramento, California; for
    Defendant-Appellant.
    Erin E. Murphy (argued), Paul D. Clement, Kasdin M.
    Mitchell, and William K. Lane III, Kirkland & Ellis LLP,
    Washington, D.C.; C.D. Michel, Anna M. Barvir, and Sean
    A. Brady, Michel & Associates P.C., Long Beach,
    California; for Plaintiffs-Appellees.
    Jonathan E. Lowy and T. Tanya Schardt, Brady,
    Washington, D.C.; Rafael Reyneri, Scott D. Danzis, Thomas
    C. Villalon, and Nora Conneely, Covington & Burling LLP,
    Washington, D.C.; for Amicus Curiae Brady.
    Scott A. Edelman, Gibson Dunn & Crutcher LLP, Los
    Angeles, California; Vivek R. Gopalan, Matthew C. Reagan,
    and Zhen He Tan, Gibson Dunn & Crutcher LLP, San
    Francisco, California; Kathryn M. Cherry, Gibson Dunn &
    Crutcher LLP, Dallas, Texas; Hannah Shearer and Hannah
    Friedman, Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence,
    San Francisco, California; J. Adam Skaggs, Giffords Law
    Center to Prevent Gun Violence, New York, New York; for
    Amici Curiae Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence
    and March for Our Lives Action Fund.
    Antonio J. Perez-Marques and Antonio M. Haynes, David
    Polk & Wardwell LLP, New York, New York; Eric
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      9
    Tirschwell, Mark Anthony Frassetto, Janet Carter, and
    William J. Taylor Jr., Everytown Law, New York, New
    York; for Amicus Curiae Everytown for Gun Safety.
    Christa Y. Nicols, Brady, Washington, D.C., for Amicus
    Curiae Team ENOUGH.
    Jonathan K. Baum, Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP,
    Chicago, Illinois; Mark T. Ciani, Katten Muchin Rosenman
    LLP, New York, New York; for Amici Curiae California
    Chapter of the American College of Emergency Physicians,
    American Academy of Pediatrics California, and California
    Academy of Family Physicians.
    Karl A. Racine, Attorney General; Loren L. Alikhan,
    Solicitor General; Caroline S. Van Zile, Principal Deputy
    Solicitor General; Carl J. Schifferle, Deputy Solicitor
    General; Sonya L. Lebsack, Assistant Attorney General;
    Office of the Solicitor General, Washington, D.C.; William
    Tong, Attorney General, Hartford, Connecticut; Kathleen
    Jennings, Attorney General, Wilmington, Delaware; Clare
    E. Connors, Attorney General, Honolulu, Hawaii; Kwame
    Raoul, Attorney General, Chicago, Illinois; Brian E. Frosh,
    Attorney General, Baltimore, Maryland; Maura Healey,
    Attorney General, Boston, Massachusetts; Dana Nessel,
    Attorney General, Lansing, Michigan; Keith Ellison,
    Attorney General, St. Paul, Minnesota; Gurbir S. Grewal,
    Attorney General, Trenton, New Jersey; Hector Balderas,
    Attorney General, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Letitia James,
    Attorney General, New York, New York; Ellen F.
    Rosenblum, Attorney General, Salem, Oregon; Josh
    Shapiro, Attorney General, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Peter
    F. Neronha, Attorney General, Providence, Rhode Island;
    Thomas J. Donovan Jr., Attorney General, Montpelier,
    Vermont; Mark R. Herring, Attorney General, Richmond,
    10                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Virginia; Robert W. Ferguson, Attorney General, Olympia,
    Washington; for Amici Curiae District of Columbia,
    Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland,
    Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New
    Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,
    Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.
    Michael N. Feuer, City Attorney; Kathleen Kenealy, Chief
    Assistant City Attorney; Scott Marcus, Senior Assistant City
    Attorney; Danielle L. Goldstein, James P. Clark, and Blithe
    Smith Bock, Deputy City Attorneys; Office of the City
    Attorney, Los Angeles, California; Dennis J. Herrera, City
    Attorney; Aileen McGrath, Co-Chief of Appellate
    Litigation; Office of the City Attorney, San Francisco,
    California; Barbara J. Parker, City Attorney, Office of the
    City Attorney, Oakland, California; Mara W. Elliott, City
    Attorney; Jonathan I. Lapin, Chief Deputy City Attorney;
    Office of the City Attorney, San Diego, California; Yibin
    Shen, City Attorney; Michael Roush, Chief Assistant City
    Attorney; Montague Hung, Deputy City Attorney; Office of
    the City Attorney, Alameda, California; Scott H. Howard,
    City Attorney, Pasadena, California; George S. Cardona,
    Interim City Attorney, Santa Monica, California; John A.
    Nagel, City Attorney; Rebecca L. Moon, Senior Assistant
    City Attorney; Office of the City Attorney, Sunnyvale,
    California; Michael Jenkins, City Attorney, Best Best &
    Krieger LLP, Manhattan Beach, California; for Amici
    Curiae City of Los Angeles, City and County of San
    Francisco, City of San Diego, City of Oakland, City of West
    Hollywood and Mayor Lindsey P. Horvath, City of
    Alameda, City of Calabasas, City of Santa Monica, and City
    of Sunnyvale.
    James E. Hough, Jamie A. Levitt, and Cesar A. Francia,
    Morrison & Foerster LLP, New York, New York; Daniel A.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                     11
    Goldschmidt, Morrison & Foerster LLP, Chiyoda-ku,
    Tokyo, Japan; James R. Sigel, Morrison & Foerster LLP,
    San Francisco, California; Samuel B. Goldstein, Morrison &
    Foerster LLP, Washington, D.C.; for Amici Curiae Pride
    Fund to End Gun Violence, Equality California, and Gays
    Against Guns.
    Stephen P. Halbrook, Fairfax, Virginia; Nezida S. Davis,
    Bakari Law LLC, Decatur, Georgia; for Amici Curiae
    National African American Gun Association Inc. and Pink
    Pistols.
    Jeremiah L. Morgan, Robert J. Olson, William J. Olson, and
    Herbert W. Titus, William J. Olson P.C., Vienna, Virginia;
    Joseph W. Miller, Joseph Miller Law Offices LLC,
    Fairbanks, Alaska; Steven C. Bailey and Gary G. Kreep,
    Ramona, California; for Amici Curiae Gun Owners of
    America, Inc.; Gun Owners Foundation; Gun Owners of
    California; California Constitutional Rights Foundation;
    Virginia Citizens Defense League; Montana Shooting Sports
    Association; Oregon Firearms Federation; Tennessee
    Firearms Association; Conservation Legal Defense and
    Education Fund; Policy Analysis Center; Heller Foundation;
    and Restoring Liberty Action Committee.
    John Parker Sweeney, James W. Porter III, Marc A.
    Nardone, and Candice L. Rucker, Bradley Arant Boult
    Cummings, Washington, D.C., for Amicus Curiae National
    Rifle Association of America Inc.
    Dan M. Peterson, Dan M. Peterson PLLC, Fairfax, Virginia,
    for Amici Curiae National Association of Chiefs of Police,
    Western States Sheriffs’ Association, California Reserve
    Peace Officers Association, San Francisco Veteran Police
    Officers Association, International Law Enforcement
    12                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Educators and Trainers Association, Law Enforcement
    Legal Defense Fund, California State Sheriffs’ Association,
    New Mexico Sheriffs’ Association, Association of New
    Jersey Rifle & Pistol Clubs Inc., Bridgeville Rifle & Pistol
    Club, Connecticut Citizens Defense League, Delaware State
    Sportsmen’s Association, Gun Owners’ Action League
    Massachusetts, Gun Owners of California, Maryland State
    Rifle & Pistol Association, New York State Rifle & Pistol
    Association, Vermont Federation of Sportsmen’s Clubs,
    Vermont State Rifle & Pistol Association, and Virginia
    Shooting Sports Association.
    Joseph G.S. Greenlee, Firearms Policy Coalition,
    Sacramento, California; George M. Lee, Seiler Epstein LLP,
    San Francisco, California; for Amici Curiae William Wiese,
    Jeremiah Morris, Lance Cowley, Sherman Macaston,
    Clifford Flores, L.Q. Dang, Frank Federau, Alan Normandy,
    Todd Nielsen, California Gun Rights Foundation, Firearms
    Policy Coalition, Firearms Policy Foundation, Armed
    Equality, San Diego County Gun Owners, Orange County
    Gun Owners, Riverside County Gun Owners, California
    County Gun Owners, and Second Amendment Foundation.
    Donald E. J. Kilmer Jr., Law Offices of Donald Kilmer APC,
    San Jose, California, for Amicus Curiae Madison Society
    Foundation Inc.
    John Cutonilli, Garrett Park, Maryland, pro se Amicus
    Curiae.
    Patrick S. Loi and Anthony P. Schoenberg, Farella Braun &
    Martel LLP, San Francisco, California, for Amicus Curaie
    Americans Against Gun Violence.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      13
    Marek Suchenek Ph.D., Long Beach, California, pro se
    Amicus Curiae.
    Mark Brnovich, Attorney General; Joseph A. Kanefield,
    Chief Deputy & Chief of Staff; Brunn W. Roysden III,
    Solicitor General; Michael S. Catlett, Deputy Solicitor
    General; Office of the Attorney General, Phoenix, Arizona;
    Jeff Landry, Attorney General; Elizabeth B. Murrill,
    Solicitor General; Josiah Kollmeyer, Assistant Solicitor
    General; Department of Justice, Baton Rouge, Louisiana;
    Steve Marshall, Attorney General, State of Alabama; Treg
    Taylor, Attorney General, State of Alaska; Leslie Rutledge,
    Attorney General, State of Arkansas; Christopher M. Carr,
    Attorney General, State of Georgia; Lawrence G. Wasden,
    Attorney General, State of Idaho; Theodore E. Rokita,
    Attorney General, State of Indiana; Derek Schmidt, Attorney
    General, State of Kansas; Daniel Cameron, Attorney
    General, Commonwealth of Kentucky; Lynn Fitch, Attorney
    General, State of Mississippi; Eric S. Schmitt, Attorney
    General, State of Missouri; Austin Knudsen, Attorney
    General, State of Montana; Douglas J. Peterson, Attorney
    General, State of Nebraska; Dave Yost, Attorney General,
    State of Ohio; Mike Hunter, Attorney General, State of
    Oklahoma; Alan Wilson, Attorney General, State of South
    Carolina; Jason R. Ravnsborg, Attorney General, State of
    South Dakota; Ken Paxton, Attorney General, State of
    Texas; Sean D. Reyes, Attorney General, State of Utah;
    Patrick Morrissey, Attorney General, State of West Virginia;
    Bridget Hill, Attorney General, State of Wyoming; for
    Amici Curiae States of Arizona, Louisiana, Alabama,
    Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas,
    Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio,
    Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah,
    West Virginia, Wyoming, and Commonwealth of Kentucky.
    14                 DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Craig A. Livingston and Crystal L. Van Der Putten,
    Livingston Law Firm P.C., Walnut Creek, California;
    Lawrence G. Keane and Benjamin F. Erwin, National
    Shooting Sports Foundation Inc., Newtown, Connecticut;
    for Amicus Curiae National Shooting Sports Foundation Inc.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        15
    OPINION
    GRABER, Circuit Judge:
    In response to mass shootings throughout the nation and
    in California, the California legislature enacted Senate
    Bill 1446, and California voters adopted Proposition 63.
    Those laws amended California Penal Code section 32310
    to prohibit possession of large-capacity magazines, defined
    as those that can hold more than ten rounds of ammunition.
    California law allows owners of large-capacity magazines to
    modify them to accept ten rounds or fewer. Owners also
    may sell their magazines to firearm dealers or remove them
    from the state. And the law provides several exceptions to
    the ban on large-capacity magazines, including possession
    by active or retired law enforcement officers, security guards
    for armored vehicles, and holders of special weapons
    permits.
    Plaintiffs, who include persons who previously acquired
    large-capacity magazines lawfully, bring a facial challenge
    to California Penal Code section 32310. They argue that the
    statute violates the Second Amendment, the Takings Clause,
    and the Due Process Clause. We disagree.
    Reviewing de novo the district court’s grant of summary
    judgment to Plaintiffs, Salisbury v. City of Santa Monica,
    
    998 F.3d 852
    , 857 (9th Cir. 2021), we hold: (1) Under the
    Second Amendment, intermediate scrutiny applies, and
    section 32310 is a reasonable fit for the important
    government interest of reducing gun violence. The statute
    outlaws no weapon, but only limits the size of the magazine
    that may be used with firearms, and the record demonstrates
    (a) that the limitation interferes only minimally with the core
    right of self-defense, as there is no evidence that anyone ever
    has been unable to defend his or her home and family due to
    16                    DUNCAN V. BONTA
    the lack of a large-capacity magazine; and (b) that the
    limitation saves lives. About three-quarters of mass shooters
    possess their weapons and large-capacity magazines
    lawfully. In the past half-century, large-capacity magazines
    have been used in about three-quarters of gun massacres
    with 10 or more deaths and in 100 percent of gun massacres
    with 20 or more deaths, and more than twice as many people
    have been killed or injured in mass shootings that involved
    a large-capacity magazine as compared with mass shootings
    that involved a smaller-capacity magazine. Accordingly, the
    ban on legal possession of large-capacity magazines
    reasonably supports California’s effort to reduce the
    devastating damage wrought by mass shootings. (2) Section
    32310 does not, on its face, effect a taking. The government
    acquires nothing by virtue of the limitation on the capacity
    of magazines, and because owners may modify or sell their
    nonconforming magazines, the law does not deprive owners
    of all economic use. (3) Plaintiffs’ due process claim
    essentially restates the takings claim, and it fails for the same
    reasons. Accordingly, we reverse the judgment of the
    district court and remand for entry of judgment in favor of
    Defendant Rob Bonta, Attorney General for the State of
    California.
    FACTUAL AND PROCEDURAL HISTORY
    A. Large-Capacity Magazines
    A magazine is an “ammunition feeding device” for a
    firearm. 
    Cal. Penal Code § 16890
    . On its own, a magazine
    is practically harmless and poses no threat to life or limb.
    But when filled with bullets and attached to a firearm, its
    deadliness is equally obvious. A magazine enables a shooter
    to fire repeatedly—a number of times up to the ammunition
    capacity of the magazine—without reloading. Once a
    magazine is empty, the shooter may continue to fire only
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      17
    after pausing to change magazines or to reload the original
    magazine. The time it takes to change magazines ranges
    from about two to ten seconds, depending on the skill of the
    shooter and the surrounding circumstances. Ass’n of N.J.
    Rifle & Pistol Clubs, Inc. v. Att’y Gen. N.J. (“ANJRPC”),
    
    910 F.3d 106
    , 113 (3d Cir. 2018).
    California and many other jurisdictions define a “large-
    capacity magazine” as a magazine capable of holding more
    than ten rounds of ammunition. E.g., 
    Cal. Penal Code § 16740
    ; 
    18 U.S.C. § 921
    (a)(31)(A) (1994); 
    Conn. Gen. Stat. § 53
    -202w(a)(1); 
    D.C. Code § 7-2506.01
    (b); N.J. Stat.
    Ann. § 2C:39-1(y). Large-capacity magazines thus allow a
    shooter to fire more than ten rounds without any pause in
    shooting.
    Most, but not all, firearms use magazines. For those
    firearms that accept magazines, manufacturers often include
    large-capacity magazines as a standard part of a purchase of
    a firearm. “Most pistols are manufactured with magazines
    holding ten to seventeen rounds, and many popular rifles are
    manufactured with magazines holding twenty or thirty
    rounds.” Kolbe v. Hogan, 
    849 F.3d 114
    , 129 (4th Cir. 2017)
    (en banc). Although data on magazine ownership are
    imprecise, some experts estimate that approximately half of
    all privately owned magazines in the United States have a
    capacity greater than ten rounds. 
    Id.
    As we will discuss in detail below, Defendant introduced
    evidence that mass shootings often involve large-capacity
    magazines, to devastating effect. Shooters who use large-
    capacity magazines cause significantly more deaths and
    injuries than those shooters who are equipped with
    magazines of smaller capacity. Intended victims and law
    enforcement officers use brief pauses in shooting to flee or
    to fight back. Because shooters who are equipped with
    18                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    large-capacity magazines may fire many bullets without
    pause, shooters are able to—and do—inflict far more
    damage using those magazines than they otherwise could.
    B. California’s Ban
    In 1994, Congress banned the possession or transfer of
    large-capacity magazines. Pub. L. 103-322, § 110103,
    Sept. 13, 1994, 
    108 Stat. 1796
    , 1998–2000 (formerly
    codified at 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (w)). The federal ban exempted
    those magazines that were legally possessed before the date
    of enactment. 
    Id.
     The law expired ten years later, in 2004.
    
    Id.
     § 110105(2).
    California began regulating large-capacity magazines in
    2000, prohibiting their manufacture, importation, or sale in
    the state. 
    Cal. Penal Code § 12020
    (a)(2) (2000). After the
    expiration of the federal ban, California strengthened its law
    in 2010 and again in 2013 by, among other things,
    prohibiting the purchase or receipt of large-capacity
    magazines. 
    Cal. Penal Code § 32310
    (a) (2013). But
    possession of large-capacity magazines remained legal, and
    law enforcement officers reported to the California
    legislature that, as a result, enforcement of the existing laws
    was “very difficult.”
    In 2016, the California legislature enacted Senate
    Bill 1446, which barred possession of large-capacity
    magazines as of July 1, 2017, and imposed a fine for failing
    to comply. 2016 Cal. Stat. ch. 58, § 1. Later in 2016, voters
    in California approved Proposition 63, also known as the
    Safety for All Act of 2016, which subsumed Senate
    Bill 1446 and added provisions that imposed a possible
    criminal penalty of imprisonment for up to a year for
    unlawful possession of large-capacity magazines after
    July 1, 2017. 
    Cal. Penal Code § 32310
    (c). Proposition 63
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        19
    declared that large-capacity magazines “significantly
    increase a shooter’s ability to kill a lot of people in a short
    amount of time.” Prop. 63 § 2(11). “No one except trained
    law enforcement should be able to possess these dangerous
    ammunition magazines,” and the present law’s lack of a ban
    on possession constituted a “loophole.” Id. § 2(12). The
    law’s stated purpose is “[t]o make it illegal in California to
    possess the kinds of military-style ammunition magazines
    that enable mass killings like those at Sandy Hook
    Elementary School; a movie theater in Aurora, Colorado;
    Columbine High School; and an office building at
    101 California Street in San Francisco, California.” Id.
    § 3(8).
    California law defines a “large-capacity magazine” as
    any ammunition feeding device with the
    capacity to accept more than 10 rounds, but
    shall not be construed to include any of the
    following:
    (a) A feeding device that has been
    permanently altered so that it cannot
    accommodate more than 10 rounds.
    (b) A .22 caliber tube ammunition feeding
    device.
    (c) A tubular magazine that is contained in a
    lever-action firearm.
    
    Cal. Penal Code § 16740
    . The ban on possession of large-
    capacity magazines exempts persons who are active or
    retired law enforcement officers, security guards for armored
    vehicles, and holders of special weapons permits for limited
    20                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    purposes; the law also allows the manufacture of magazines
    for government use and the use of magazines as props in film
    production. 
    Id.
     §§ 32400–55. Finally:
    Any person who may not lawfully possess a
    large-capacity magazine commencing July 1,
    2017 shall, prior to July 1, 2017:
    (1) Remove the large-capacity magazine
    from the state;
    (2) Sell the large-capacity magazine to a
    licensed firearms dealer; or
    (3) Surrender the large-capacity magazine to
    a law enforcement agency for destruction.
    Id. § 32310(d).
    California is not alone in banning the possession of
    large-capacity magazines after the federal prohibition
    expired in 2004. The District of Columbia and eight other
    states have imposed significant restrictions on large-capacity
    magazines. 
    Colo. Rev. Stat. §§ 18-12-301
    , 302; 
    Conn. Gen. Stat. § 53
    -202w; 
    D.C. Code § 7-2506.01
    (b); 
    Haw. Rev. Stat. § 134-8
    (c); 
    Mass. Gen. Laws Ann. ch. 140, §§ 121
    , 131(a),
    131M; 
    Md. Code Ann., Crim. Law § 4-305
    (b); N.J. Stat.
    Ann. §§ 2C:39-1(y), 39-3(j), 39-9(h); 
    N.Y. Penal Law §§ 265.00
    , 265.36; 13 Vt. Stat. Ann. § 4021. Municipalities,
    too, have banned the possession of large-capacity
    magazines. E.g., Highland Park, Ill. City Code § 136.005;
    Sunnyvale, 
    Cal. Mun. Code § 9.44.050
     (enacted before the
    statewide ban).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        21
    C. Procedural History
    Plaintiffs brought this action in 2017, arguing that
    California’s prohibition on the possession of large-capacity
    magazines violates the Second Amendment, the Fifth
    Amendment’s Takings Clause, and the Fourteenth
    Amendment’s Due Process Clause. Plaintiffs own, or
    represent those who own, large-capacity magazines, and
    they do not want to comply with California’s requirement
    that they modify the magazines to accept ten or fewer
    rounds, remove the magazines from the state, sell them to a
    licensed firearms dealer, or allow state authorities to destroy
    them.
    Shortly before July 1, 2017, the district court
    preliminarily enjoined the state from enforcing the law,
    holding that Plaintiffs were likely to succeed on their claims
    under the Second Amendment and the Takings Clause.
    Duncan v. Becerra, 
    265 F. Supp. 3d 1106
     (S.D. Cal. 2017).
    On appeal to this court, a two-judge majority affirmed the
    preliminary injunction, concluding that the district court did
    not abuse its discretion in holding that Plaintiffs had shown
    a likelihood of success on their claims. Duncan v. Becerra,
    742 F. App’x 218, 221–22 (9th Cir. 2018) (unpublished); see
    also id. at 220 (“We do not determine the ultimate merits,
    but rather determine only whether the district court correctly
    distilled the applicable rules of law and exercised
    permissible discretion in applying those rules to the facts at
    hand.” (internal quotation marks omitted)). Judge Wallace
    dissented. Id. at 223–26. He acknowledged the deferential
    standard of review on appeal from a preliminary injunction
    but he “d[id] not consider it a close call to conclude the
    district court abused its discretion in finding Plaintiffs were
    likely to succeed on the merits of their constitutional
    challenges.” Id. at 226 (Wallace, J., dissenting). Judge
    22                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Wallace reasoned that “California’s evidence—which
    included statistical studies, expert testimony, and surveys of
    mass shootings showing that the use of [large-capacity
    magazines] increases the lethality of gun violence—was
    more than sufficient to satisfy intermediate scrutiny.” Id.
    at 223. And he further concluded that the California law did
    not violate the Takings Clause, because there is no physical
    taking and no evidence that alteration or sale of large-
    capacity magazines would be economically infeasible. Id.
    at 225.
    In 2019, the district court granted summary judgment to
    Plaintiffs on the Second Amendment and takings claims and
    permanently enjoined Defendant from enforcing the law.
    Duncan v. Becerra, 
    366 F. Supp. 3d 1131
     (S.D. Cal. 2019).
    On appeal, a divided panel affirmed the district court’s grant
    of summary judgment as to the Second Amendment claim.
    Duncan v. Becerra, 
    970 F.3d 1133
     (9th Cir. 2020). Chief
    District Judge Lynn dissented; she would have rejected
    Plaintiffs’ Second Amendment claim. 
    Id.
     at 1169–76.
    The panel majority’s opinion conflicted with decisions
    by all six circuit courts to have considered—and rejected—
    Second Amendment challenges to similar laws. Worman v.
    Healey, 
    922 F.3d 26
     (1st Cir. 2019), cert. denied, 
    141 S. Ct. 109
     (2020); ANJRPC, 
    910 F.3d 106
    ; Kolbe, 
    849 F.3d 114
    ;
    N.Y. State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n, Inc. v. Cuomo (“NYSRPA”),
    
    804 F.3d 242
     (2d Cir. 2015); Friedman v. City of Highland
    Park, 
    784 F.3d 406
     (7th Cir. 2015); Heller v. District of
    Columbia, 
    670 F.3d 1244
     (D.C. Cir. 2011) (“Heller II”). We
    granted rehearing en banc and, pursuant to our ordinary
    practice, vacated the panel’s opinion. Duncan v. Becerra,
    
    988 F.3d 1209
     (9th Cir. 2021) (order); Ninth Cir. Rules 35-1
    to 35-3, Adv. Comm. Note 3.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                              23
    DISCUSSION
    We address (A) the Second Amendment claim and
    (B) the takings claim. 1
    A. Second Amendment Claim
    The Second Amendment states: “A well regulated
    Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the
    right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be
    infringed.” U.S. Const. amend. II. The Second Amendment
    “protects a personal right to keep and bear arms for lawful
    purposes, most notably for self-defense within the home.”
    McDonald v. City of Chicago, 
    561 U.S. 742
    , 780 (2010).
    The Second Amendment “is fully applicable to the States.”
    
    Id. at 750
    .
    In District of Columbia v. Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    , 574, 628
    (2008), the Supreme Court struck down, as inconsistent with
    the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms, the
    District of Columbia’s laws that “generally prohibit[ed] the
    possession of handguns” and “totally ban[ned] handgun
    possession in the home.” The Court declined to define the
    applicable framework for addressing Second Amendment
    claims, holding that the handgun ban failed “[u]nder any of
    the standards of scrutiny that we have applied to enumerated
    constitutional rights.” 
    Id. at 628
    .
    “Following Heller and McDonald, we have created a
    two-step framework to review Second Amendment
    challenges.” Young v. Hawaii, 
    992 F.3d 765
    , 783 (9th Cir.
    1
    In a footnote, Plaintiffs state that summary judgment was proper
    in their favor on the due process claim “[f]or all the same reasons” that
    apply to the takings claim. Because we reject the takings claim, we reject
    the due process claim.
    24                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    2021) (en banc), petition for cert. filed, (U.S. May 11, 2021)
    (No. 20-1639). We first ask “if the challenged law affects
    conduct that is protected by the Second Amendment.” 
    Id.
     If
    not, then the law is constitutional, and our analysis ends. 
    Id.
    If, on the other hand, the law implicates the Second
    Amendment, we next choose and apply an appropriate level
    of scrutiny. Id. at 784. Ten of our sister circuits have
    adopted a substantially similar two-step test. Gould v.
    Morgan, 
    907 F.3d 659
    , 668–69 (1st Cir. 2018), cert. denied,
    
    141 S. Ct. 108
     (2020); NYSRPA, 804 F.3d at 254;
    GeorgiaCarry.Org, Inc. v. U.S. Army Corps of Eng’rs,
    
    788 F.3d 1318
    , 1322 (11th Cir. 2015); see Young, 992 F.3d
    at 783 (listing cases from the Third, Fourth, Fifth, Sixth,
    Seventh, Tenth and D.C. Circuits that apply a similar two-
    step framework).
    Judge Bumatay’s dissent would jettison the two-step
    framework adopted by us and our sister circuits, in favor of
    a “text, history, and tradition” test. Dissent by J. Bumatay
    at 108. Plaintiffs have not sought this test, despite having
    filed supplemental briefs after we granted rehearing en banc,
    and Defendant has not had a chance to respond. The dissent
    nevertheless asks us to disrupt a decade of caselaw and to
    create a circuit split with ten of our sister circuits, not
    because of any recent development in the law, but because
    of the dissent’s preferred reading of the same Supreme Court
    cases that we have applied many times. We reject the
    dissent’s invitation. Our test is fully consistent with every
    other circuit court’s approach and, for the reasons that
    follow, we agree with those decisions that have thoroughly
    and persuasively rejected the dissent’s alternative approach
    to Second Amendment claims. E.g., NYSRPA, 804 F.3d
    at 257 n.74; Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at
    1264–67.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         25
    Our two-step inquiry faithfully adheres to the Supreme
    Court’s guidance in Heller and McDonald. The Court
    looked extensively to history, text, and tradition in
    discussing the scope of the Second Amendment right.
    Accordingly, history, text, and tradition greatly inform step
    one of the analysis, where we ask whether the challenged
    law implicates the Second Amendment. See, e.g., Young,
    992 F.3d at 784–826 (undertaking a detailed historical
    review); Teixeira v. County of Alameda, 
    873 F.3d 670
    , 682–
    87 (9th Cir. 2017) (en banc) (reviewing historical materials
    at length). Those sources also inform step two, where we
    choose strict scrutiny, intermediate scrutiny, or no scrutiny
    at all (as in Heller) by examining the effect of the law on the
    core of the Second Amendment right as traditionally
    understood. E.g., United States v. Chovan, 
    735 F.3d 1127
    ,
    1138 (9th Cir. 2013).
    But we do not read the Supreme Court’s cases as
    foreclosing the application of heightened scrutiny as the final
    step of the analysis. The Court expressly held that rational
    basis review is never appropriate. Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    628
    n.27. Had the Court intended to foreclose the other forms of
    traditional review, it could have so held. Instead, and to the
    contrary, the Court referred specifically to “the standards of
    scrutiny that we have applied to enumerated constitutional
    rights” and held that application of heightened scrutiny is
    unnecessary when the law at issue “would fail constitutional
    muster” under any standard of scrutiny. 
    Id.
     at 628–29.
    The Court clearly rejected Justice Breyer’s “judge-
    empowering ‘interest balancing inquiry’” that, rather than
    corresponding to any of “the traditionally expressed levels
    (strict scrutiny, intermediate scrutiny, rational basis),” asked
    instead “‘whether the statute burdens a protected interest in
    a way or to an extent that is out of proportion to the statute’s
    26                    DUNCAN V. BONTA
    salutary effects upon other important governmental
    interests.’” 
    Id.
     at 634 (citing 
    id.
     at 689–90 (Breyer, J.,
    dissenting)). But the standards that we apply—strict and
    intermediate scrutiny—plainly are the traditional tests and
    are not the interest-balancing test proposed by Justice
    Breyer. In Heller, the Court emphasized that the Second
    Amendment, “[l]ike the First, . . . is the very product of an
    interest balancing by the people.” 
    Id. at 635
    . The Court
    regularly assesses First Amendment challenges using
    intermediate and strict scrutiny, depending on the nature of
    the law and the context of the challenge. E.g., Packingham
    v. North Carolina, 
    137 S. Ct. 1730
    , 1736 (2017); Reed v.
    Town of Gilbert, 
    576 U.S. 155
    , 163–65 (2015). We see no
    reason why those same standards do not apply to Second
    Amendment challenges as well. Unless and until the
    Supreme Court tells us and the First, Second, Third, Fourth,
    Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, Tenth, Eleventh, and D.C. Circuits
    that, for a decade or more, we all have fundamentally
    misunderstood the basic framework for assessing Second
    Amendment challenges, we reaffirm our two-step approach.
    Here, Plaintiffs bring a facial Second Amendment
    challenge to California’s ban on large-capacity magazines.
    Accordingly, Plaintiffs “must show that no set of
    circumstances exists under which the [statute] would be
    valid.” Young, 992 F.3d at 779 (alteration in original)
    (internal quotation marks omitted). Our review is “limited
    to the text of the statute itself,” and Plaintiffs’ (and amici’s)
    individual circumstances do not factor into our analysis. Id.
    We are guided by the decisions of six of our sister
    circuits, all of which upheld laws banning or restricting
    large-capacity magazines as consistent with the Second
    Amendment. Worman, 
    922 F.3d 26
    ; ANJRPC, 
    910 F.3d 106
    ; Kolbe, 
    849 F.3d 114
    ; NYSRPA, 
    804 F.3d 242
    ;
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                               27
    Friedman, 
    784 F.3d 406
    ; Heller II, 
    670 F.3d 1244
    ; see Fyock
    v. City of Sunnyvale, 
    779 F.3d 991
     (9th Cir. 2015) (affirming
    the denial of a preliminary injunction in a case in which the
    plaintiffs challenged a municipal ban on large-capacity
    magazines). Most of those decisions applied the same
    general two-step approach that guides us and reached the
    same conclusions that we reach. In particular, they assumed
    without deciding, at step one, that the law implicated the
    Second Amendment; and held, at step two, that intermediate
    scrutiny applied and that the ban or restrictions survived that
    form of review. Worman, 922 F.3d at 33–40; ANJRPC,
    910 F.3d at 116–24; NYSRPA, 804 F.3d at 254–64; Heller II,
    
    670 F.3d at
    1260–64; see Fyock, 779 F.3d at 996–1001
    (following that same general approach in the context of an
    appeal from a preliminary injunction). 2
    1. Step One: Whether the Challenged Law Implicates
    the Second Amendment
    At step one, we ask whether the challenged law affects
    conduct that the Second Amendment protects. Young,
    2
    Sitting en banc, the Fourth Circuit reached two alternative holdings
    in upholding Maryland’s ban on large-capacity magazines. It first held,
    at step one, that bans on large-capacity magazines do not implicate the
    Second Amendment. Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 135–37. The court next held,
    in the alternative and in accord with the four decisions cited in the text
    that, assuming any scrutiny was warranted, intermediate scrutiny applied
    and that the ban withstood such scrutiny. Id. at 138–41.
    For its part, the Seventh Circuit declined to apply that court’s
    ordinary two-step inquiry, holding instead that a municipal ban on large-
    capacity magazines was constitutional because those magazines were not
    common at the time of ratification, and the ordinance leaves residents
    “ample means to exercise the inherent right of self-defense that the
    Second Amendment protects.” Friedman, 784 F.3d at 411 (internal
    quotation marks omitted).
    28                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    992 F.3d at 783. Defendant argues that California’s ban
    withstands scrutiny at this step for two reasons. First,
    Defendant asks us to follow the lead of the Fourth Circuit
    and hold that large-capacity magazines lack Second
    Amendment protection because they are similar to “‘M-16
    rifles and the like,’ i.e., ‘weapons that are most useful in
    military service.’” Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 142 (quoting Heller,
    
    554 U.S. at 627
    ).           Second, Defendant argues that
    longstanding regulations have governed magazine capacity
    such that California’s ban on large-capacity magazines
    survives scrutiny at this initial step of the analysis. See
    Young, 992 F.3d at 783 (holding that, if longstanding,
    accepted regulations have governed the subject of the
    challenged law, then the Second Amendment is not
    implicated).
    Both arguments appear to have significant merit. As we
    describe below, large-capacity magazines have limited
    lawful, civilian benefits, whereas they provide significant
    benefits in a military setting. Accordingly, the magazines
    likely are “most useful in military service,” at least in an
    ordinary understanding of that phrase. Kolbe, 849 F.3d
    at 135–37.
    Moreover, Congress and some states have imposed
    firing-capacity restrictions for nearly a century. In 1932,
    Congress banned, in the District of Columbia, “any firearm
    which shoots automatically or semiautomatically more than
    twelve shots without reloading.” Around the same time,
    several states, including California, enacted bans on firearms
    that could fire automatically or semi-automatically more
    than 10, 12, 16, or 18 bullets. 
    1933 Cal. Stat. 1170
    , § 3. The
    state bans were later repealed, but the District of Columbia’s
    ban appears to have remained in place in some form
    continuously since 1932. We also take note of the more
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        29
    recent bans, first imposed by Congress in 1994 and later
    imposed by nine states and some municipalities after the
    federal ban expired in 2004. Cf. United States v. Henry,
    
    688 F.3d 637
    , 640 (9th Cir. 2012) (holding, nine years ago,
    that machine guns are “unusual” because they had been
    banned since 1986, a total of 26 years). In addition,
    governments long have imposed magazine capacity limits on
    hunters. See, e.g., 
    50 C.F.R. § 20.21
    (b) (prohibiting the
    hunting of most migratory game birds “[w]ith a shotgun of
    any description capable of holding more than three shells,
    unless it is plugged with a one-piece filler, incapable of
    removal without disassembling the gun, so its total capacity
    does not exceed three shells”); 
    Cal. Fish & Game Code § 2010
     (“It is unlawful . . . to use or possess a shotgun
    capable of holding more than six cartridges at one time, to
    take a mammal or bird.”).
    Ultimately, though, we decline to decide those two sub-
    issues definitively. Neither we nor the Supreme Court has
    decided whether the passage in Heller pertaining to weapons
    “most useful in military service” should be read as
    establishing a legal standard and, if so, how to interpret that
    phrase for purposes of step one of the constitutional analysis.
    See Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 627
     (“It may be objected that if
    weapons that are most useful in military service—M-16
    rifles and the like—may be banned, then the Second
    Amendment right is completely detached from the prefatory
    clause.”). Similarly, determining whether sufficiently
    longstanding regulations have governed large-capacity
    magazines likely would require an extensive historical
    inquiry. See, e.g., Young, 992 F.3d at 784–826 (undertaking
    a detailed historical review of regulations concerning the
    open carrying of arms); Teixeira, 873 F.3d at 682–87
    (reviewing historical materials in determining whether the
    Second Amendment encompasses a right to sell firearms).
    30                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    In many cases raising Second Amendment challenges,
    particularly where resolution of step one is uncertain and
    where the case raises “large and complicated” questions,
    United States v. Torres, 
    911 F.3d 1253
    , 1261 (9th Cir. 2019),
    we have assumed, without deciding, that the challenged law
    implicates the Second Amendment. E.g., United States v.
    Singh, 
    979 F.3d 697
    , 725 (9th Cir. 2020), cert. denied,
    Matsura v. United States, 
    2021 WL 2044557
    , No. 20-1167
    (U.S. May 24, 2021); Mai v. United States, 
    952 F.3d 1106
    ,
    1114–15 (9th Cir. 2020), cert. denied, 
    2021 WL 1602649
    ,
    No. 20-819 (U.S. Apr. 26, 2021); Pena v. Lindley, 
    898 F.3d 969
    , 976 (9th Cir. 2018), cert. denied, 
    141 S. Ct. 108
     (2020).
    Our sister circuits have followed this approach specifically
    with respect to laws restricting large-capacity magazines.
    See Worman, 922 F.3d at 36 (assuming, without deciding, at
    step one due to “reluctan[ce] to plunge into this factbound
    morass”); ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 117 (assuming, without
    deciding, at step one); NYSRPA, 804 F.3d at 257 (assuming,
    without deciding, at step one “[i]n the absence of clearer
    guidance from the Supreme Court or stronger evidence in the
    record”); Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at 1261
     (assuming, without
    deciding, at step one because “we cannot be certain whether”
    the requirements at this step are met). Accordingly, we
    follow the “well-trodden and ‘judicious course’” of
    assuming, without deciding, that California’s law implicates
    the Second Amendment. Pena, 898 F.3d at 976 (quoting
    Woollard v. Gallagher, 
    712 F.3d 865
    , 876 (4th Cir. 2013)).
    2. Step Two: Application of an Appropriate Level of
    Scrutiny
    a. Determination of the Appropriate Level of
    Scrutiny
    At step two, we first determine the appropriate level of
    scrutiny. Torres, 911 F.3d at 1262. “[L]aws burdening
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       31
    Second Amendment rights must withstand more searching
    scrutiny than rational basis review.” Id. We apply either
    strict scrutiny, which requires both narrow tailoring to a
    compelling governmental interest and the use of the least-
    restrictive means, Victory Processing, LLC v. Fox, 
    937 F.3d 1218
    , 1226–28 (9th Cir. 2019), or intermediate scrutiny,
    which requires a reasonable fit with an important
    governmental interest, Torres, 911 F.3d at 1263.
    “The precise level of heightened scrutiny depends ‘on
    (1) how close the law comes to the core of the Second
    Amendment right and (2) the severity of the law’s burden on
    the right.’” Mai, 952 F.3d at 1115 (quoting Chovan,
    735 F.3d at 1138). “Strict scrutiny applies only to laws that
    both implicate a core Second Amendment right and place a
    substantial burden on that right.” Id. Intermediate scrutiny
    applies to laws that either do not implicate a core Second
    Amendment right or do not place a substantial burden on that
    right. Id.
    Defendant does not dispute that California’s ban on
    large-capacity magazines implicates, at least in some
    measure, the core Second Amendment right of self-defense
    in the home. See, e.g., Pena, 898 F.3d at 977 (assuming
    without deciding that firearm regulations implicate the core
    right); see also Worman, 922 F.3d at 30, 36 (assuming
    without deciding that Massachusetts’ ban on large-capacity
    magazines implicates the core right); Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at 332
     (declining to decide whether the District of
    Columbia’s prohibition on large-capacity magazines
    “impinge[s] at all upon the core right protected by the
    Second Amendment”). Instead, Defendant argues that the
    ban imposes only a small burden on the Second Amendment
    right and that, accordingly, intermediate scrutiny is the
    appropriate lens through which to view California’s law. We
    32                       DUNCAN V. BONTA
    agree. Just as our sister circuits unanimously have applied
    intermediate scrutiny to other laws banning or restricting
    large-capacity magazines, 3 we hold that intermediate
    scrutiny applies to California’s ban.
    California’s ban on large-capacity magazines imposes
    only a minimal burden on the exercise of the Second
    Amendment right. The law has no effect whatsoever on
    which firearms may be owned; as far as the challenged
    statute is concerned, anyone may own any firearm at all.
    Owners of firearms also may possess as many firearms,
    bullets, and magazines as they choose. See ANJRPC,
    910 F.3d at 118 (holding that intermediate scrutiny applied,
    in part because the challenged law “has no impact on the
    many other firearm options that individuals have to defend
    themselves in their home”); Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 138 (same:
    “citizens [remain] free to protect themselves with a plethora
    of other firearms and ammunition”); NYSRPA, 804 F.3d
    at 260 (same: “while citizens may not acquire high-capacity
    3
    Worman, 922 F.3d at 36–38; ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 117–18; Kolbe,
    849 F.3d at 138–39; NYSRPA, 804 F.3d at 257–61; Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at
    1261–62; see Fyock, 779 F.3d at 998–999 (holding that the district
    court did not abuse its discretion in applying intermediate scrutiny to a
    municipal ban on large-capacity magazines).
    As we described in note 2, the Seventh Circuit did not apply, at least
    by name, any of the traditional levels of scrutiny. Friedman, 784 F.3d
    at 410–12. But in upholding the municipal ban on large-capacity
    magazines, the court plainly applied a standard far less demanding than
    strict scrutiny, and its analysis is fully consistent with our selection of
    intermediate scrutiny. See, e.g., id. at 411 (holding that the ordinance
    leaves residents “ample means to exercise the inherent right of self-
    defense that the Second Amendment protects” (internal quotations
    omitted)).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                          33
    magazines, they can purchase any number of magazines with
    a capacity of ten or fewer rounds”).
    Owners of firearms also may use those items at will.
    They may fire as many bullets as they would like for
    whatever lawful purpose they choose. The ban on large-
    capacity magazines has the sole practical effect of requiring
    shooters to pause for a few seconds after firing ten bullets,
    to reload or to replace the spent magazine.
    Nothing in the record suggests that the restriction
    imposes any more than a minimal burden on the Second
    Amendment right to keep and bear arms. Plaintiffs do not
    point to any evidence that a short pause after firing ten
    bullets during target practice or while hunting imposes any
    practical burden on those activities, both of which fall
    outside the core Second Amendment right in any event.
    Similarly, the record suggests at most a minimal burden,
    if any burden at all, on the right of self-defense in the home.
    Experts in this case and other cases report that “most
    homeowners only use two to three rounds of ammunition in
    self-defense.” ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 121 n.25. The use of
    more than ten bullets in defense of the home is “rare,” Kolbe,
    849 F.3d at 127, or non-existent, see Worman, 922 F.3d at 37
    (noting that neither the plaintiffs nor their experts “could . . .
    identify even a single example of a self-defense episode in
    which ten or more shots were fired”). An expert in this case
    found that, using varying methodologies and data sets, more
    than ten bullets were used in either 0% or fewer than 0.5%
    of reported incidents of self-defense of the home. Even in
    those situations, the record does not disclose whether the
    shooter fired all shots from the same weapon, whether the
    shooter fired in short succession such that reloading or
    replacing a spent cartridge was impractical, or whether the
    additional bullets had any practical effect after the first ten
    34                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    shots. In other words, the record here, as in other cases, does
    not disclose whether the added benefit of a large-capacity
    magazine—being able to fire more than ten bullets in rapid
    succession—has ever been realized in self-defense in the
    home. See ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 118 (“The record here
    demonstrates that [large-capacity magazines] are not well-
    suited for self-defense.”); Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 138 (noting the
    “scant evidence . . . [that] large-capacity magazines are
    possessed, or even suitable, for self-protection”); Heller II,
    
    670 F.3d at 1262
     (pointing to the lack of evidence that
    “magazines holding more than ten rounds are well-suited to
    or preferred for the purpose of self-defense or sport”).
    Indeed, Plaintiffs have not pointed to a single instance in this
    record (or elsewhere) of a homeowner who was unable to
    defend himself or herself because of a lack of a large-
    capacity magazine. 4
    4
    Judge VanDyke’s dissent faults us for relying on the rarity of
    instances of self-defense that use more than ten bullets while not giving
    enough weight to the infrequency of mass shootings, which the dissent
    describes as “statistically very rare.” Dissent by J. VanDyke at 160. To
    the extent that the dissent concludes that reducing the harm caused by
    mass shootings is not an “important” governmental objective at step two
    of the analysis, we disagree. Focusing solely on the frequency of mass
    shootings omits the second, critical part of the analysis set out below
    at pages 42 to 46[C]: the incredible harm caused by mass shootings. We
    do not ignore the relative infrequency of mass shootings. We instead
    conclude—and Plaintiffs do not dispute—that, considering the
    frequency of mass shootings in combination with the harm that those
    events cause, reducing the number of deaths and injuries caused by mass
    shootings is an important goal. The dissent’s analogy to commercial
    flights, [Dissent by J. VanDyke at 161 n.11, is illustrative: Although
    accidents involving commercial flights are rare, legislatures recognize
    that the serious harm caused by even a single crash justifies extensive
    regulation of the industry.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                               35
    Evidence supports the common-sense conclusion that
    the benefits of a large-capacity magazine are most helpful to
    a soldier: “the use of large-capacity magazines results in
    more gunshots fired, results in more gunshot wounds per
    victim, and increases the lethality of gunshot injuries.”
    Fyock, 779 F.3d at 1000; see Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 137 (“Large-
    capacity magazines enable a shooter to hit ‘multiple human
    targets very rapidly.’”); NYSRPA, 804 F.3d at 263–64 (“Like
    assault weapons, large-capacity magazines result in ‘more
    shots fired, persons wounded, and wounds per victim than
    do other gun attacks.’” (quoting Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at 1263
    )). A 1989 report by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco,
    and Firearms concluded that “large capacity magazines are
    indicative of military firearms,” in part because they
    “provide[] the soldier with a fairly large ammunition
    supply.” A 1998 report by that agency found that
    “detachable large capacity magazine[s] [were] originally
    designed and produced for . . . military assault rifles.” The
    Fourth Circuit concluded that, “[w]hatever their other
    potential uses . . . large-capacity magazines . . . are
    unquestionably most useful in military service.” Kolbe,
    849 F.3d at 137.
    To the extent that the dissent asks us to balance the interests of the
    lawful use of large-capacity magazines against the interests of the State
    in reducing the deaths and injuries caused by mass shootings, we
    disagree for two independent reasons. First, the Supreme Court
    expressly rejected that type of interest balancing. Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 634
    . Second, to the extent that an interest-balancing inquiry is
    relevant, we reiterate that Plaintiffs have not pointed to a single
    instance—in California or elsewhere, recently or ever—in which
    someone was unable to defend himself or herself due to a lack of a large-
    capacity magazine, whereas the record describes the many deaths and
    injuries caused by criminals’ use of large-capacity magazines during
    mass shootings.
    36                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Recent experience has shown repeatedly that the same
    deadly effectiveness of a soldier’s use of large-capacity
    magazines can be exploited by criminals, to tragic result. In
    Thousand Oaks, California, a shooter equipped with large-
    capacity magazines murdered twelve people at a bar in 2018.
    Firearms equipped with large-capacity magazines “have
    been the weapons of choice in many of the deadliest mass
    shootings in recent history, including horrific events in
    Pittsburgh (2018), Parkland (2018), Las Vegas (2017),
    Sutherland Springs (2017), Orlando (2016), Newtown
    (2012), and Aurora (2012).” Worman, 922 F.3d at 39. As
    the Fourth Circuit explained:
    Other massacres have been carried out with
    handguns equipped with magazines holding
    more than ten rounds, including those at
    Virginia Tech (thirty-two killed and at least
    seventeen wounded in April 2007) and Fort
    Hood, Texas (thirteen killed and more than
    thirty wounded in November 2009), as well
    as in Binghamton, New York (thirteen killed
    and four wounded in April 2009 at an
    immigration center), and Tucson, Arizona
    (six killed and thirteen wounded in January
    2011 at a congresswoman’s constituent
    meeting in a grocery store parking lot).
    Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 120.
    In sum, large-capacity magazines provide significant
    benefit to soldiers and criminals who wish to kill many
    people rapidly. But the magazines provide at most a
    minimal benefit for civilian, lawful purposes. Because
    California’s ban on large-capacity magazines imposes only
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       37
    a minimal burden on the Second Amendment right to keep
    and bear arms, we apply intermediate scrutiny.
    Before applying intermediate scrutiny, we address
    Plaintiffs’ argument that we need not apply any scrutiny at
    all. Plaintiffs assert that California’s law falls within the
    category of regulations, like the handgun ban at issue in
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 628
    , that fail “[u]nder any of the
    standards of scrutiny.” We have held that the only laws that
    are necessarily unconstitutional in this way are those laws
    that “amount[] to a destruction of the Second Amendment
    right.” Young, 992 F.3d at 784 (quoting Silvester v. Harris,
    
    843 F.3d 816
    , 821 (9th Cir. 2016)). Because California’s
    law imposes, as explained above, only a slight burden on the
    Second Amendment right, the law plainly does not destroy
    the right.
    The handgun ban at issue in Heller failed under any level
    of scrutiny because it “amount[ed] to a prohibition of an
    entire class of ‘arms’ that is overwhelmingly chosen by
    American society” for the lawful purpose of self-defense,
    including in the home. 
    554 U.S. at 628
    . The Supreme Court
    explained:
    There are many reasons that a citizen may
    prefer a handgun for home defense: It is
    easier to store in a location that is readily
    accessible in an emergency; it cannot easily
    be redirected or wrestled away by an attacker;
    it is easier to use for those without the upper-
    body strength to lift and aim a long gun; it can
    be pointed at a burglar with one hand while
    the other hand dials the police. Whatever the
    reason, handguns are the most popular
    weapon chosen by Americans for self-
    38                       DUNCAN V. BONTA
    defense in the home, and a complete
    prohibition of their use is invalid.
    
    Id. at 629
    .
    California’s prohibition on large-capacity magazines is
    entirely different from the handgun ban at issue in Heller.
    The law at issue here does not ban any firearm at all. It bans
    merely a subset (large-capacity) of a part (a magazine) that
    some (but not all) firearms use. 5 Heller clearly did not
    prohibit governments from banning some subset of
    weapons. See, e.g., Pena, 898 F.3d at 978 (applying
    intermediate scrutiny to a ban on the commercial sale of
    handguns lacking certain safety features and upholding the
    5
    Judge VanDyke’s dissent suggests that California’s ban on large-
    capacity magazines is akin to a ban on all cars or on large vehicles.
    Dissent by J. VanDyke at 151–152. But those analogies are inapt. A
    ban on large-capacity magazines cannot reasonably be considered a ban
    on firearms any more than a ban on leaded gasoline, a ban on
    dangerously designed gas tanks, or speed limits could be considered a
    ban on cars. E.g., 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (n); 
    49 C.F.R. § 393.67
    ; 
    Cal. Veh. Code § 22348
    . Like a ban on large-capacity magazines with respect to
    firearms, those laws retain the basic functionality of cars—driving within
    reasonable limits—while preventing specific societal harms from known
    dangers.
    The same reasoning applies to the dissent’s analogy to a ban on all
    commercial flights. Dissent by J. VanDyke at 161 n.11. A ban on large-
    capacity magazines cannot reasonably be considered a ban on firearms
    any more than the existing, extensive regulations of commercial airlines,
    aircraft, pilots, and so on could be considered a ban on commercial
    flights. All of the dissent’s analogies start from the false premise that a
    ban on large-capacity magazines somehow amounts to a ban on the basic
    functionality of all firearms, despite the fact that, as we have explained,
    many firearms do not use magazines; all firearms may be used with
    magazines of ten or fewer rounds; and no limit applies to the number of
    firearms or magazines that a person may possess and use.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        39
    ban); Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 138–39 (holding that Heller’s
    “special consideration” for handguns “does not mean that a
    categorical ban on any particular type of bearable arm is
    unconstitutional”); Friedman, 784 F.3d at 410 (“[A]t least
    some categorical limits on the kinds of weapons that can be
    possessed are proper.”).
    Nor does the fact that, among the magazines in
    circulation, approximately half are of large capacity alter our
    conclusion. As an initial matter, we question whether
    circulation percentages of a part that comes standard with
    many firearm purchases meaningfully reflect an affirmative
    choice by consumers. More to the point, Heller’s ruling that
    handguns, “the quintessential self-defense weapon,” cannot
    be prohibited rested on the premise that consumers
    overwhelmingly chose to purchase handguns for the purpose
    of self-defense in the home. Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    628–29; see
    Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 138 (emphasizing this point). By
    contrast, and as described in detail above, Plaintiffs have
    offered little evidence that large-capacity magazines are
    commonly used, or even suitable, for that purpose. See
    Worman, 922 F.3d at 36–37 (holding that, unlike “the unique
    popularity of the handgun as a means of self-defense,” “the
    record . . . offers no indication that [large-capacity
    magazines] have commonly been used for home self-
    defensive purposes”); Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 138–39 (“The
    handgun, of course, is ‘the quintessential self-defense
    weapon.’ In contrast, there is scant evidence . . . that . . .
    large-capacity magazines are possessed, or even suitable, for
    self-protection.” (citation omitted)); NYSRPA, 804 F.3d
    at 260 n.98 (“Heller . . . explain[ed] that handguns are
    protected as ‘the most popular weapon chosen by Americans
    for self-defense in the home.’ Of course, the same cannot be
    said of [large-capacity magazines].” (citation omitted)).
    40                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    In sum, we decline to read Heller’s rejection of an
    outright ban on the most popular self-defense weapon as
    meaning that governments may not impose a much narrower
    ban on an accessory that is a feature of some weapons and
    that has little to no usefulness in self-defense. We therefore
    reject Plaintiffs’ entreaty that we strike down California’s
    law without applying any scrutiny at all.             Because
    California’s law imposes only a minimal burden on the
    Second Amendment right, we apply intermediate scrutiny.
    b. Application of Intermediate Scrutiny
    “To satisfy intermediate scrutiny, the government’s
    statutory objective must be ‘significant, substantial, or
    important,’ and there must be a ‘reasonable fit’ between the
    challenged law and that objective.” Mai, 952 F.3d at 1115
    (quoting Silvester, 843 F.3d at 821–22). The legislature
    must have drawn “reasonable” conclusions, and the evidence
    must “fairly support” the legislative judgment. Pena,
    898 F.3d at 979–80.
    “The test is not a strict one,” and the government need
    not use the “least restrictive means.” Silvester, 843 F.3d
    at 827 (internal quotation marks omitted). “[W]e are
    weighing a legislative judgment, not evidence in a criminal
    trial,” Pena, 898 F.3d at 979, so “we do not impose an
    ‘unnecessarily rigid burden of proof,’” id. (quoting Mahoney
    v. Sessions, 
    871 F.3d 873
    , 881 (9th Cir. 2017)), and “we do
    not require scientific precision,” Mai, 952 F.3d at 1118
    (internal quotation marks omitted). We may consider “the
    legislative history of the enactment as well as studies in the
    record or cited in pertinent case law.” Fyock, 779 F.3d
    at 1000 (quoting Jackson, 746 F.3d at 966).
    We defer to reasonable legislative judgments. Pena,
    898 F.3d at 979. “[I]n the face of policy disagreements, or
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         41
    even conflicting legislative evidence, ‘we must allow the
    government to select among reasonable alternatives in its
    policy decisions.’” Id. at 980 (quoting Peruta v. County of
    San Diego, 
    824 F.3d 919
    , 944 (9th Cir. 2016) (en banc)
    (Graber, J., concurring)). “Sound policymaking often
    requires legislators to forecast future events and to anticipate
    the likely impact of these events based on deductions and
    inferences for which complete empirical support may be
    unavailable.” Mai, 952 F.3d at 1118 (quoting Turner Broad.
    Sys., Inc. v. FCC, 
    512 U.S. 622
    , 665 (1994)); see also
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 969 (holding that, even if the relevant
    science were “an open question,” that conclusion “is
    insufficient to discredit [a legislative body’s] reasonable
    conclusions”).
    Both dissents suggest that, because we have not struck
    down any state or federal law under the Second Amendment,
    we have “give[n] a blank check to lawmakers to infringe on
    the Second Amendment right.” Dissent by J. Bumatay
    at 111–112; accord Dissent by J. VanDyke at 169. To the
    contrary, we have carefully examined each challenge on its
    own merit. The Constitution binds legislators just as it binds
    us. That Congress and state legislatures located in our circuit
    have legislated within constitutional bounds is, properly
    viewed, a credit to those legislatures, not evidence of an
    abdication of our duty. Notably, California’s law is more
    restrained than similar laws considered by our sister circuits.
    See, e.g., Worman, 
    922 F.3d 26
     (considering a
    Massachusetts law that bans large-capacity magazines and
    assault weapons); Kolbe, 
    849 F.3d 114
     (same: Maryland
    law); NYSRPA, 
    804 F.3d 242
     (same: New York law &
    Connecticut law); Friedman, 
    784 F.3d 406
     (same: City of
    Highland Park, Illinois law); Heller II, 
    670 F.3d 1244
     (same:
    District of Columbia law). And our sister circuits, applying
    the same two-step inquiry that we apply today, have not
    42                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    hesitated to strike down provisions that go too far. See, e.g.,
    NYSRPA, 804 F.3d at 264 (striking down, under intermediate
    scrutiny, a provision of New York law that prohibited the
    loading of a magazine with more than seven rounds of
    ammunition).
    The California legislature, and the people of California,
    enacted the ban on large-capacity magazines to prevent and
    mitigate gun violence. As Plaintiffs properly concede and,
    as we have recognized before, that interest is undoubtedly
    important. E.g., Wilson v. Lynch, 
    835 F.3d 1083
    , 1093 (9th
    Cir. 2016). California’s law aims to reduce gun violence
    primarily by reducing the harm caused by mass shootings.
    Although mass shootings may be an irregular occurrence,
    the harm that flows from them is extensive. We readily
    conclude that reducing the harm caused by mass shootings
    is an important governmental objective. The only question,
    then, is whether California’s ban is a “reasonable fit” for
    reducing the harm caused by mass shootings. Silvester,
    843 F.3d at 821.
    Many mass shootings involve large-capacity magazines,
    and large-capacity magazines tragically exacerbate the harm
    caused by mass shootings. 6 One expert reported that “it is
    common for offenders to fire more than ten rounds when
    using a gun with a large-capacity magazine in mass
    shootings. In particular, in mass shootings that involved use
    of large-capacity magazine guns, the average number of
    6
    Plaintiffs dispute the reliability of Defendant’s experts and the
    underlying data, all of which are identical or similar to the reports and
    data that our sister circuits have cited. E.g., ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 121;
    Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 124 n.3. We conclude that the evidence is sufficiently
    reliable for purposes of weighing California’s legislative judgment.
    Pena, 898 F.3d at 979–80.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         43
    shots fired was 99.” More than twice as many people were
    killed or injured in mass shootings that involved a large-
    capacity magazine compared to mass shootings where the
    shooter had magazines with a smaller capacity. One expert
    looked solely at fatalities and the deadliest mass shootings
    (those with at least six deaths), and he discovered that the
    number of fatalities from mass shootings that involved a
    large-capacity magazine was at least 50% greater than the
    number of fatalities from those shootings that involved
    smaller magazines. “Moreover, since 1968, [large-capacity
    magazines] have been used in 74 percent of all gun
    massacres with 10 or more deaths, as well as in 100 percent
    of all gun massacres with 20 or more deaths.”
    The reasons are simple and verified by events: large-
    capacity magazines allow a shooter to fire more bullets from
    a single firearm uninterrupted, and a murderer’s pause to
    reload or switch weapons allows potential victims and law
    enforcement officers to flee or to confront the attacker. One
    expert described the period after a shooter has exhausted the
    current magazine as “precious down-time” that “affords
    those in the line of fire with a chance to flee, hide, or fight
    back.” Accord ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 119 (“Weapon changes
    and reloading result in a pause in shooting and provide an
    opportunity for bystanders or police to intervene and victims
    to flee.”); Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 128 (“[R]educing the number
    of rounds that can be fired without reloading increases the
    odds that lives will be spared in a mass shooting . . . [because
    there are] more chances for bystanders or law enforcement
    to intervene during a pause in firing, . . . more chances for
    the shooter to have problems quickly changing a magazine
    under intense pressure, and . . . more chances for potential
    victims to find safety.” (internal quotation marks omitted)).
    44                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    As other courts have pointed out, and as the record here
    establishes, examples abound of the harm caused by shooters
    using large-capacity magazines and of people fleeing,
    hiding, or fighting back during a shooter’s pause. The
    Fourth Circuit noted high-profile examples in “Newtown
    (where nine children were able to run from a targeted
    classroom while the gunman paused to change out a large-
    capacity thirty-round magazine), Tucson (where the shooter
    was finally tackled and restrained by bystanders while
    reloading his firearm), and Aurora (where a 100-round drum
    magazine was emptied without any significant break in
    firing).” Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 128. The Third Circuit updated
    that list a year later by noting that “[v]ideos from the Las
    Vegas shooting in 2017 show that concert attendees would
    use the pauses in firing when the shooter’s high capacity
    magazines were spent to flee.” ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 120
    (internal quotation marks omitted). We provide yet another
    intervening example: after the 2018 shooting in Thousand
    Oaks, California, news outlets reported survivors’ accounts
    of escaping when the shooter paused firing. See Thousand
    Oaks Mass Shooting Survivor: “I Heard Somebody Yell,
    ‘He’s Reloading,’” (ABC News, Nov. 8, 2018),
    https://abc7.com/thousand-oaks-ca-shooting-california/464
    9166/ (“I heard somebody yell, ‘He’s reloading!’ and that
    was when a good chunk of us had jumped up and went and
    followed the rest of the people out the window.”); People
    Threw Barstools Through Window to Escape Thousand
    Oaks, California, Bar During Shooting, (USA Today,
    Nov. 8, 2018), https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/natio
    n-now/2018/11/08/thousand-oaks-bar-shooting-people-brok
    e-windows-stools-escape/1928031002/ (“At that point I
    grabbed as many people around me as I could and grabbed
    them down under the pool table we were closest to until he
    ran out of bullets for that magazine and had to reload.”). The
    record contains additional examples of persons confronting
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         45
    a shooter or escaping during a pause in firing. See also
    ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 120 & n.24 (listing other examples).
    Approximately three-quarters of mass shooters
    possessed their weapons, as well as their large-capacity
    magazines, lawfully. Removing the ability of potential mass
    shooters to possess those magazines legally thus reasonably
    supports California’s effort to reduce the devastating harm
    caused by mass shootings. “[L]imiting a shooter to a ten-
    round magazine could mean the difference between life and
    death for many people.” Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 128 (internal
    quotation marks omitted). Moreover, removing all large-
    capacity magazines from circulation reduces the
    opportunities for criminals to steal them. See, e.g., id. at 140
    (noting the “evidence that, by reducing the availability of . . .
    [large-capacity] magazines overall, the [challenged law] will
    curtail their availability to criminals and lessen their use in
    mass shootings, other crimes, and firearms accidents”). For
    example, the shooter who targeted Sandy Hook’s elementary
    school stole his mother’s lawfully-possessed weapons and
    large-capacity magazines, which he then used to kill more
    than two dozen people, including twenty children.
    Just as our sister circuits have concluded in assessing the
    fit between restrictions on large-capacity magazines and the
    goal of reducing gun violence, we conclude that California’s
    ban is a reasonable fit, even if an imperfect one, for its
    compelling goal of reducing the number of deaths and
    injuries caused by mass shootings. Worman, 922 F.3d at 39–
    40; ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 119–22; Kolbe, 849 F.3d at 139–
    41; NYSRPA, 804 F.3d at 263–64; Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at
    1263–64. Because we apply intermediate scrutiny, the
    law need not be the least restrictive means, and some
    measure of over-inclusiveness is permissible. E.g., Torres,
    911 F.3d at 1264 n.6. Plaintiffs and their experts speculate
    46                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    about hypothetical situations in which a person might want
    to use a large-capacity magazine for self-defense. But
    Plaintiffs’ speculation, not backed by any real-world
    examples, comes nowhere near overcoming the deference
    that we must give to the reasonable legislative judgment,
    supported by both data and common sense, that large-
    capacity magazines significantly increase the devastating
    harm caused by mass shootings and that removing those
    magazines from circulation will likely reduce deaths and
    serious injuries. See, e.g., Worman, 922 F.3d at 40
    (rejecting, as “too facile by half,” the argument that a ban on
    large-capacity magazines sweeps too broadly because it bars
    law-abiding citizens from possessing them); Pena, 898 F.3d
    at 980 (upholding a firearm-safety restriction because of the
    deference we owe to “[t]he legislative judgment that
    preventing cases of accidental discharge outweighs the need
    for discharging a gun” in the “rare instance” where the safety
    restriction “disables a gun capable of providing self-
    defense”).
    Because California’s ban on large-capacity magazines is
    a reasonable fit for the compelling goal of reducing gun
    violence, we reverse the district court’s grant of summary
    judgment to Plaintiffs on their Second Amendment claim.
    B. Takings Claim
    The Fifth Amendment provides, “nor shall private
    property be taken for public use, without just compensation.”
    U.S. Const. amend. V. “There are two types of ‘per se’
    takings: (1) permanent physical invasion of the property,
    Loretto v. Teleprompter Manhattan CATV Corp., 
    458 U.S. 419
    , 426 (1982); and (2) a deprivation of all economically
    beneficial use of the property, Lucas v. S.C. Coastal Council,
    
    505 U.S. 1003
    , 1015–16 (1992).” Laurel Park Cmty., LLC
    v. City of Tumwater, 
    698 F.3d 1180
    , 1188 (9th Cir. 2012).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                               47
    Alternatively, a regulatory taking may occur if the regulation
    goes “too far.” Pa. Coal Co. v. Mahon, 
    260 U.S. 393
    , 415
    (1922). “[R]egulatory takings challenges are governed by
    the standards set forth in Penn Central Transp. Co. v. New
    York City, 
    438 U.S. 104
     (1978).” Lingle v. Chevron U.S.A.,
    Inc., 
    544 U.S. 528
    , 538 (2005); see generally Cedar Point
    Nursery v. Hassid, 
    141 S. Ct. 2063
    , 2071–72 (2021)
    (describing these concepts).
    Because Plaintiffs bring a facial takings claim, they must
    show that “the mere enactment of [California’s law]
    constituted a taking.” Tahoe-Sierra Pres. Council, Inc. v.
    Tahoe Reg’l Plan. Agency, 
    535 U.S. 302
    , 318 (2002).
    Plaintiffs must demonstrate that “no set of circumstances
    exists under which the [law] would be valid.” United States
    v. Salerno, 
    481 U.S. 739
    , 745 (1987).
    California’s law requires an owner of a large-capacity
    magazine to choose one of four options: (1) modify the
    magazine so that it accommodates ten rounds or fewer;
    (2) sell the magazine to a firearms dealer; (3) remove the
    magazine to another state (where, depending on that state’s
    laws, the owner may lawfully possess it or sell it to any third
    party); or (4) turn it over to a law enforcement agency for
    destruction. 7 
    Cal. Penal Code §§ 16740
    (a), 32310(d)(1)–
    7
    Judge Bumatay’s dissent begins by asserting that, “[i]f California’s
    law applied nationwide, it would require confiscating half of all existing
    firearms magazines in this country.” Dissent by J. Bumatay at 103. That
    dramatic assertion is inaccurate. The government seizes nothing; many
    owners are unaffected entirely; and all owners have several choices other
    than voluntary relinquishment of large-capacity magazines for
    destruction. More specifically, if every state adopted California’s law,
    many owners of large-capacity magazines, such as current and retired
    law enforcement officers, would be able to keep them. Other owners
    would retain many options. For instance, they could modify the
    48                     DUNCAN V. BONTA
    (3). California’s law plainly does not deprive an owner of
    “all economically beneficial use of the property.” Laurel
    Park, 698 F.3d at 1188. For example, Plaintiffs have neither
    asserted nor introduced evidence that no firearms dealer will
    pay for a magazine or that modification of a magazine is
    economically impractical.
    Plaintiffs’ facial regulatory takings claim fails for similar
    reasons.     Assuming, without deciding, that a facial
    regulatory takings claim is ever cognizable, id. at 1189,
    Plaintiffs’ claim fails because they have not introduced
    evidence of the “economic impact of the regulation on,” or
    the “investment-backed expectations” of, any owner of a
    large-capacity magazine. Penn Cent., 
    438 U.S. at 124
    .
    Whatever merit there may be to an individual’s as-applied
    regulatory takings claim, an issue that we do not reach in
    connection with this facial challenge, we cannot say on this
    record that a regulatory taking has necessarily occurred with
    respect to every owner of a large-capacity magazine.
    Nor does the law on its face effect a physical taking.
    California reasonably chose to prohibit the possession of
    large-capacity magazines due to the danger that they pose to
    society. Nothing in the case law suggests that any time a
    state adds to its list of contraband—for example, by adding
    a drug to its schedule of controlled substances—it must pay
    all owners for the newly proscribed item. To the contrary,
    the Supreme Court has made clear that “the property owner
    necessarily expects the uses of his property to be restricted,
    magazines to accommodate ten or fewer rounds; or they could sell the
    magazines to a firearms dealer (who could sell the magazines to buyers
    abroad or to those who remain authorized to possess them, such as the
    thousands of current and retired law enforcement officers in this
    country).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        49
    from time to time, by various measures newly enacted by the
    State in legitimate exercise of its police powers.” Lucas,
    
    505 U.S. at 1027
    . Here, an owner of a large-capacity
    magazine may continue to use the magazine, either by
    modifying it to accept a smaller number of bullets or by
    moving it out of state, or the owner may sell it. On review
    of a facial challenge, we fail to see how those options are
    necessarily inadequate in all circumstances.
    We do not read the Supreme Court’s decisions in
    Loretto, 
    458 U.S. 419
    , and Horne v. Department of
    Agriculture, 
    576 U.S. 350
     (2015), as expansively as
    Plaintiffs do. In Loretto, 
    458 U.S. at 426
    , the Court held that
    a mandated physical invasion of a landlord’s real property
    for the installation of cable-television devices constituted a
    taking. The Court rejected, as “prov[ing] too much,” the
    argument that a landlord could avoid the regulation by
    ceasing to rent the property. 
    Id.
     at 439 n.17. Similarly, in
    Horne, 576 U.S. at 361, the Court held that a requirement
    that raisin growers and handlers grant the government
    possession and title to a certain percentage of raisins
    constituted a physical taking. The Court rejected the
    argument, “at least in this case,” that no taking had occurred
    because grape farmers could avoid the raisin market
    altogether by, for example, making wine instead of raisins.
    Id. at 365.
    Those cases differ from this one in at least two material
    ways. First, unlike in Loretto and Horne, the government
    here in no meaningful sense takes title to, or possession of,
    the item, even if the owner of a magazine chooses not to
    modify the magazine, remove it from the state, or sell it.
    That California opted to assist owners in the safe disposal of
    large-capacity magazines by empowering law enforcement
    agencies to accept magazines voluntarily tendered “for
    50                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    destruction,” 
    Cal. Penal Code § 32310
    (d)(3), does not
    convert the law into a categorical physical taking.
    Second, Loretto and Horne concerned regulations of
    non-dangerous, ordinary items—rental buildings and raisins,
    “a healthy snack.” Id. at 366. Like the Third Circuit,
    ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 124 & n.32, we do not read Loretto
    and Horne as requiring a government to pay whenever it
    concludes that certain items are too dangerous to society for
    persons to possess without a modest modification that leaves
    intact the basic functionality of the item. See Loretto,
    
    458 U.S. at 436
     (holding that a taking had occurred because
    the owner “can make no nonpossessory use of the
    property”). Mandating the sale, transfer, modification, or
    destruction of a dangerous item cannot reasonably be
    considered a taking akin to a physical invasion of a rental
    building or the physical confiscation of raisins. See
    ANJRPC, 910 F.3d at 124 (rejecting a similar takings
    challenge to a ban on large-capacity magazines because the
    owners can, among other things, sell or transfer the
    magazines or modify them to accept fewer rounds).
    Because Plaintiffs’ facial takings claim fails, we reverse
    the district court’s grant of summary judgment to Plaintiffs
    on their takings claim.
    REVERSED and REMANDED                     for   entry   of
    judgment in favor of Defendant.
    GRABER, Circuit Judge, concurring:
    As the majority opinion explains, District of Columbia v.
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
     (2008), does not provide a clear
    framework for deciding whether a statute does or does not
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       51
    violate the Second Amendment.             Indeed, the Court
    recognized as much when it wrote:
    Justice BREYER chides us for leaving so
    many applications of the right to keep and
    bear arms in doubt . . . . But since this case
    represents this Court’s first in-depth
    examination of the Second Amendment, one
    should not expect it to clarify the entire field,
    any more than Reynolds v. United States,
    
    98 U.S. 145
     (1879), our first in-depth Free
    Exercise Clause case, left that area in a state
    of utter certainty.
    Id. at 635. But Heller does strongly suggest an analogy to
    the free speech guarantee of the First Amendment. For
    example:
    –”Just as the First Amendment protects modern forms of
    communications, e.g., Reno v. American Civil Liberties
    Union, 
    521 U.S. 844
    , 849 (1997), . . . the Second
    Amendment extends, prima facie, to all instruments that
    constitute bearable arms, even those that were not in
    existence at the time of the founding.” Id. at 582.
    –In regard to the extent of the Second Amendment right,
    the Court observed: “Of course the right [to keep and bear
    arms] was not unlimited, just as the First Amendment’s right
    of free speech was not, see, e.g., United States v. Williams,
    
    553 U.S. 285
     (2008).” Id. at 595 (emphasis added).
    –”Other provisions of the Bill of Rights have similarly
    remained unilluminated for lengthy periods. This Court first
    held a law to violate the First Amendment’s guarantee of
    freedom of speech in 1931, almost 150 years after the
    Amendment was ratified . . . . Even a question as basic as
    52                    DUNCAN V. BONTA
    the scope of proscribable libel was not addressed by this
    Court until 1964, nearly two centuries after the founding.”
    Id. at 625–26 (citations omitted).
    –Rational-basis scrutiny cannot “be used to evaluate the
    extent to which a legislature may regulate a specific,
    enumerated right, be it the freedom of speech . . . or the right
    to keep and bear arms.” Id. at 628 n. 27.
    –And, finally:
    The First Amendment contains the freedom-
    of-speech guarantee that the people ratified,
    which included exceptions for obscenity,
    libel, and disclosure of state secrets, but not
    for the expression of extremely unpopular
    and wrong[-]headed views. The Second
    Amendment is no different. Like the First, it
    is the very product of an interest balancing by
    the people.
    Id. at 635 (first and second emphases added).
    Under the First Amendment, we review laws that
    regulate speech under the standard of intermediate scrutiny;
    laws that “leave open ample alternative channels for
    communication of the information” and that place
    “reasonable restrictions on the time, place, or manner of
    protected speech” are permissible. Ward v. Rock Against
    Racism, 
    491 U.S. 781
    , 791 (1989). By repeatedly drawing
    an analogy to the First Amendment’s Free Speech Clause,
    Heller strongly suggests that intermediate scrutiny can apply
    to the Second Amendment, too. Accordingly, reasonable
    restrictions on the time, place, or manner of exercising the
    Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms are
    permissible if they leave open ample alternative means of
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        53
    exercising that right, the central component of which is
    individual self-defense. Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 599
    .
    Other courts, including ours, have applied the First
    Amendment analogy to analyze a Second Amendment
    challenge. We held in Jackson v. City & County of San
    Francisco, 
    746 F.3d 953
    , 961 (9th Cir. 2014), that “First
    Amendment principles” inform our analysis. In particular,
    “firearm regulations which leave open alternative channels
    for self-defense are less likely to place a severe burden on
    the Second Amendment right than those which do not,” and
    “laws which regulate only the ‘manner in which persons
    may exercise their Second Amendment rights’ are less
    burdensome than those which bar firearm possession
    completely.” 
    Id.
     (quoting United States v. Chovan, 
    735 F.3d 1127
    , 1138 (9th Cir. 2013)); accord Hirschfield v. Bureau of
    Alcohol, Firearms, Tobacco & Explosives, 
    5 F.4th 407
    , 415
    (4th Cir. 2021) (“Just as the First Amendment employs strict
    scrutiny for content-based restrictions but intermediate
    scrutiny for time, place, and manner regulations, the scrutiny
    in [the Second Amendment] context depends on the nature
    of the conduct being regulated and the degree to which the
    challenged law burdens the right.” (internal quotation marks
    omitted)); Nat’l Rifle Ass’n v. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco,
    Firearms, & Explosives, 
    700 F.3d 185
    , 198 (5th Cir. 2012)
    (“In harmony with well-developed principles that have
    guided our interpretation of the First Amendment, we
    believe that a law impinging upon the Second Amendment
    right must be reviewed under a properly tuned level of
    scrutiny—i.e., a level that is proportionate to the severity of
    the burden that the law imposes on the right.”); United States
    v. Decastro, 
    682 F.3d 160
    , 167 (2d Cir. 2012) (“In deciding
    whether a law substantially burdens Second Amendment
    rights, it is therefore appropriate to consult principles from
    other areas of constitutional law, including the First
    54                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Amendment (to which Heller adverted repeatedly).”); Heller
    v. District of Columbia, 
    670 F.3d 1244
    , 1257 (D.C. Cir.
    2011) (“Heller II”) (“As with the First Amendment, the level
    of scrutiny applicable under the Second Amendment surely
    depends on the nature of the conduct being regulated and the
    degree to which the challenged law burdens the right.”
    (internal quotation marks omitted)); Ezell v. City of Chicago,
    
    651 F.3d 684
    , 703 (7th Cir. 2011) (“Borrowing from the
    Court’s First Amendment doctrine” in formulating an
    appropriate test for Second Amendment challenges); United
    States v. Marzzarella, 
    614 F.3d 85
    , 97 (3d Cir. 2010)
    (looking to “the First Amendment speech context” in
    applying intermediate scrutiny to a law that “is more
    accurately characterized as a regulation of the manner in
    which persons may lawfully exercise their Second
    Amendment rights”).
    Applying those principles here, intermediate scrutiny is
    the appropriate standard for assessing California’s ban on
    large-capacity magazines. Other circuits have recognized,
    and I agree, that a ban on large-capacity magazines leaves
    open ample alternative means of self-defense. Ass’n of N.J.
    Rifle & Pistol Clubs, Inc. v. Att’y Gen. N.J., 
    910 F.3d 106
    ,
    118 (3d Cir. 2018) N.Y. State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n, Inc. v.
    Cuomo, 
    804 F.3d 242
    , 260 (2d Cir. 2015); Friedman v. City
    of Highland Park, 
    784 F.3d 406
    , 411 (7th Cir. 2015). As the
    majority opinion describes more fully, citizens have a nearly
    unlimited array of weapons that they may use, and very close
    to 100% of instances of self-defense use fewer—typically far
    fewer—bullets than ten. But even considering a rare
    situation in which someone defending a home wishes to fire
    more than ten bullets in a short period of time, alternatives
    nevertheless remain: the shooter may carry more than one
    firearm, more than one magazine, or extra bullets for
    reloading the magazine. Because of the inconvenience of
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       55
    carrying more than one firearm or the delay of a few seconds
    while a magazine is changed, those options are not a perfect
    substitute for a single magazine loaded with scores of
    bullets. But alternative-means analysis does not require an
    exact match. See, e.g., Jackson, 746 F.3d at 964 (applying
    intermediate scrutiny to San Francisco’s requirement that a
    gun be kept in a safe at home when not carried on the person
    because “a modern gun safe may be opened quickly” and
    because “San Franciscans are not required to secure their
    handguns while carrying them on their person”);
    Mastrovincenzo v. City of New York, 
    435 F.3d 78
    , 101 (2d
    Cir. 2006) (“The requirement that ample alternative channels
    exist does not imply that alternative channels must be perfect
    substitutes for those channels denied to plaintiffs by the
    regulation at hand.” (internal quotation marks omitted)).
    Individuals plainly have ample alternative means for self-
    defense.
    And, because the only practical effect of California’s law
    is the inability of a shooter to fire more than ten bullets
    without pause, the regulation is akin to a reasonable manner
    restriction. As far as the challenged statute is concerned, a
    shooter may fire any firearm at all and as many times as the
    shooter chooses, but only in a manner that requires briefly
    pausing after ten shots. See Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at 1262
    (holding that D.C.’s ban on large-capacity magazines was
    akin to a regulation of the manner in which speech takes
    place). In conclusion, because California’s ban on large-
    capacity magazines imposes only a minimal burden on the
    Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms,
    intermediate scrutiny applies. The majority opinion explains
    why California’s law meets that constitutional standard.
    To be sure, the First Amendment and the Second
    Amendment differ in many important respects (including
    56                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    text and purpose), and the analogy is imperfect at best. See
    Young v. Hawaii, 
    992 F.3d 765
    , 827–28 (9th Cir. 2021) (en
    banc), petition for cert filed, (U.S. May 11, 2021) (No. 20-
    1639) (rejecting analogy to the First Amendment’s “prior
    restraint” doctrine when analyzing firearms-licensing laws).
    Among other things, firearms present an inherent risk of
    violence toward others that is absent in most First
    Amendment cases. See Bonidy v. U.S. Postal Serv., 
    790 F.3d 1121
    , 1126 (10th Cir. 2015) (distinguishing the Second
    Amendment right from other fundamental rights on this
    ground, as one justification for refusing to apply strict
    scrutiny). Nonetheless, in my view Heller suggests that we
    should apply that analogy when appropriate. And I think
    that it is appropriate here to conclude that the challenged law
    is similar to a permissible “manner” restriction on protected
    speech.
    BERZON, Circuit Judge, with whom THOMAS, Chief
    Judge, and PAEZ, MURGUIA, WATFORD, and
    HURWITZ, Circuit Judges, join, concurring:
    I concur in Judge Graber’s principal opinion for the
    Court. I write separately to respond to the substance of the
    “text, history, and tradition” approach to Second
    Amendment legal claims, laid out in detail and advocated by
    Judge Bumatay’s Dissent. Bumatay Dissent at 103–143. In
    connection with that response, I shall offer a brief theoretical
    and historical defense of the two-step, tiered scrutiny
    approach used by eleven of the federal courts of appeal in
    Second Amendment cases. See Principal Opinion at 23–24
    (referencing cases from the First, Second, Third, Fourth,
    Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, Ninth, Tenth, Eleventh, and
    D.C. Circuits).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         57
    As I hope to demonstrate, the notion that judges can
    avoid so-called subjectivity—meaning, I gather, adjudging
    the validity of an arms-control regulation on the basis of their
    own biases rather than on the basis of ascertainable, self-
    limiting standards and procedures—more successfully under
    the “text, history, and tradition” approach than under the
    two-step, tiered scrutiny analysis is a simplistic illusion.
    Unlike the “text, history, and tradition” approach, the two-
    step, tiered scrutiny approach requires courts to show their
    work, so to speak, both to themselves and to readers and
    other courts. It incorporates historical analysis at the initial
    stage—that is, in considering whether a given kind of arms-
    related behavior falls within the scope of Second
    Amendment’s protection at all. See, e.g., Young v. Hawaii,
    
    992 F.3d 765
    , 783–84 (9th Cir. 2021) (en banc), petition for
    cert. filed (U.S. May 11, 2021) (No. 20-1639); Teixeira v.
    Cnty. of Alameda, 
    873 F.3d 670
    , 682 (9th Cir. 2017) (en
    banc); Jackson v. City & Cnty. of San Francisco, 
    746 F.3d 953
    , 960 (9th Cir. 2014). But where the available historical
    materials are either indeterminate, as here, Principal Opinion
    at 30, or indicate that the particular behavior does fall within
    the scope of the “right of law-abiding, responsible citizens
    to use arms in defense of hearth and home” that the Second
    Amendment was intended to protect, District of Columbia v.
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    , 616, 628, 635 (2008), a court applying
    the two-step approach moves on to the second stage of the
    inquiry. That stage requires the court expressly to consider
    and carefully to calibrate the nature of the challenged
    regulation and the government interests at hand, exposing
    the court’s analysis and interpretive choices to plain view.
    In contrast, resort to text, history, and tradition alone
    when assessing the constitutionality of particular, discrete
    arms regulations (as opposed to when assessing broader
    questions regarding the general reach of the Second
    58                    DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Amendment, as was undertaken in Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    576–
    628) obscures the myriad decisions that underlie coming to
    a resolution regarding the validity of a specific arms
    regulation using such an analysis. And so, far from limiting
    judicial discretion, the “text, history, and tradition” approach
    draws a veil over a series of decisions that are not
    preordained and that materially impact the outcome in any
    given case.
    Additionally, the notion that text, history, and,
    especially, “tradition” are objectively ascertainable
    disregards what linguists, historians, and anthropologists
    have long recognized: language can be indeterminate,
    especially as time passes; ascertaining what happened in the
    past is contingent and variable, because both the data
    available and the means of structuring and analyzing that
    data vary over time; and “tradition” is a term with little stable
    meaning, both as to the time period it takes for a “tradition”
    to become established and as to the individuals or
    communities whose habits and behaviors are said to
    establish a “tradition.”
    In short, the appeal to objectivity in the Bumatay
    Dissent, while alluring, is spurious, as the “text, history, and
    tradition” approach is ultimately an exercise in wishful
    thinking. There is good reason that jurists have come to
    favor application of the tiered scrutiny approach to many
    forms of constitutional adjudication, including in Second
    Amendment cases. The tiered scrutiny approach requires
    judges carefully to attend to their own thought processes,
    keeping their eyes open, rather than closed, to the aspiration
    of bias-free and objective decisionmaking.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        59
    I.
    An evaluation of the text of the Second Amendment and
    the history and traditions of our nation are assuredly
    important considerations in any case involving the Second
    Amendment. “[T]he Supreme Court’s guidance in Heller
    and McDonald . . . looked extensively to history, text, and
    tradition in discussing the scope of the Second Amendment
    right.” Principal Opinion at 25; see also Young, 992 F.3d
    at 783–84; Teixeira, 873 F.3d at 682; Jackson, 746 F.3d
    at 960. The principal opinion recognizes the important role
    that text, history, and tradition play in a Second Amendment
    case, noting that those considerations factor into both parts
    of the Court’s two-step analysis. Principal Opinion at 25.
    Specifically, text, history, and tradition “greatly inform step
    one of the analysis, where we ask whether the challenged
    law implicates the Second Amendment,” and they “also
    inform step two, where we choose strict scrutiny,
    intermediate scrutiny, or no scrutiny at all (as in Heller) by
    examining the effect of “ a disputed law “on the core of the
    Second Amendment right as traditionally understood.” Id.
    Judge Bumatay agrees that the text, history, and tradition
    of the Second Amendment should guide our inquiry with
    respect to the overall scope of the Second Amendment.
    Bumatay Dissent at 104, 109–110. But his proposition is
    that those three factors must also be dispositive with respect
    to the question whether any given gun regulation, no matter
    how discrete, is constitutional. Id. In other words, under his
    view, every Second Amendment case should begin and end
    with an examination of text, history, and tradition. Id.
    According to the Bumatay Dissent, precedent directs us
    to “dispense[]” with the principal opinion’s two-step, tiered
    scrutiny approach and replace it with the “text, history, and
    tradition” test. See, e.g., Bumatay Dissent at 104–105, 108,
    60                       DUNCAN V. BONTA
    111–112. Judge Graber’s opinion for the Court explains
    why that precedent-based argument is mistaken, Principal
    Opinion at 25–26, as does Judge Ginsburg’s majority
    opinion for the D.C. Circuit in Heller v. District of Columbia
    (Heller II), 
    670 F.3d 1244
    , 1264–67 (D.C. Cir. 2011). I do
    not repeat that discussion.
    Aside from the incorrect precedent argument, the
    Bumatay Dissent maintains, principally, that the “text,
    history, and tradition” test should govern Second
    Amendment legal disputes because it is inherently more
    objective and less subject to manipulation than the two-step
    approach. See, e.g., Bumatay Dissent at 109–112, 121–125.
    Contrary to that assertion, there are several reasons why text
    and history and, especially, tradition fall short of the judge-
    constraining attributes with which they are endowed by
    Judge Bumatay and the (uniformly non-controlling)
    appellate opinions on which he relies. See Bumatay Dissent
    at 115–118. This concurrence will explain why a framework
    that relies exclusively on text, history, and tradition to
    adjudicate Second Amendment claims provides only the
    aura, but not the reality, of objectivity and resistance to
    manipulation based on a judge’s supposed biases when
    applied to discrete regulations governing activity that falls
    within the scope of the Second Amendment, as that scope
    was determined by Heller. 1
    1
    There is no reason to think that “personal motives” such as a
    distaste for firearms or a lack of familiarity with firearms influenced the
    outcome of this case. Hurwitz Concurrence at 100–103. A judge’s
    obligation is to be aware of their biases and vigorously avoid using them
    to decide cases, not to bleach their minds, an impossibility. See, e.g.,
    Miles v. Ryan, 
    697 F.3d 1090
    , 1090–91 (9th Cir. 2012).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        61
    A.
    Beginning with the “text” prong of the “text, history, and
    tradition” framework, the evolution of language over time
    poses a significant problem. Words do not have inherent
    meaning. To the contrary, the meaning of a text depends in
    large part on “how the interpretive community alive at the
    time of the text’s adoption understood” the words as they
    were used in the text, and that understanding is unlikely to
    match the understanding of a future interpretive community.
    Frank H. Easterbrook, Foreword to Antonin Scalia & Bryan
    A. Garner, Reading Law: The Interpretation of Legal Texts
    xxv (2012).
    This problem arises frequently in textual interpretation
    cases involving “statutes of long-standing vintage.” United
    States v. Kimsey, 
    668 F.3d 691
    , 699–701 (9th Cir. 2012). To
    be sure, it is not impossible to navigate this difficulty and
    avoid erring in some such cases, see, e.g., 
    id.
     But the older
    a text is, the more distant we become from the interpretive
    community alive at the time of the text’s adoption, and the
    less able we are to approach a text through the perspective
    of such people. Easterbrook, supra, at xxv. There comes a
    point where the original meaning of the text “is no longer
    recoverable reliably,” as it has simply been lost to the
    passage of time. Id. When problems of this kind surface in
    Second Amendment cases involving the constitutionality of
    discrete firearm regulations, the text of the Second
    Amendment is unlikely to offer a dependable solution.
    More importantly for present purposes, although the
    word “text” appears in the title of the Bumatay Dissent’s
    “text, history, and tradition” test, the language of the Second
    Amendment does not play much of an operative role in the
    Dissent’s application of that test to the large-capacity
    magazine regulation here challenged, and for good reason.
    62                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    As the reasoning of the Dissent illustrates, the primary focus
    of the “text, history, and tradition” framework, as applied to
    specific regulations, is, unsurprisingly, on evidence of our
    nation’s history and traditions. Bumatay Dissent at 125–
    142. The language of the Constitution was necessarily
    drafted at a high level of abstraction. Its broad language
    becomes less informative the more specific the inquiry at
    issue, and textual analysis therefore often plays only a
    minimal role in analyzing how a constitutional provision
    applies to a specific regulation. Put differently, although the
    language of the Second Amendment played a vital role in
    determining the overall scope of the Amendment in Heller,
    
    554 U.S. at
    576–603, the Amendment’s text is unlikely to
    provide much guidance in cases involving the validity of
    discrete regulations. The “text” prong of the “text, history,
    and tradition” approach is therefore unlikely to yield
    ascertainable answers in cases where the Second
    Amendment’s general language is applied to narrow,
    particular regulations targeting modern arms devices. I
    therefore concentrate my critique on the “history” and
    “tradition” prongs of the Bumatay Dissent’s “text, history,
    and tradition” approach.
    B.
    The “history” prong, when relied upon as a mandatory,
    independently dispositive element of the “text, history, and
    tradition” approach, as applied to discrete regulations, has
    considerable shortcomings. To begin, without expressing
    any opinion regarding the actual accuracy of the historical
    analysis embedded in the Heller decision—which would be
    inappropriate, given that Heller is controlling precedent—I
    note that many “historians, scholars, and judges have . . .
    express[ed] the view that the [Supreme Court’s] historical
    account was flawed.” McDonald v. City of Chicago,
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       63
    
    561 U.S. 742
    , 914 (2010) (Breyer, J., dissenting) (citing
    David Thomas Konig, Why the Second Amendment Has a
    Preamble: Original Public Meaning and the Political
    Culture of Written Constitutions in Revolutionary America,
    
    56 UCLA L. Rev. 1295
     (2009); Paul Finkelman, It Really
    Was About a Well Regulated Militia, 
    59 Syracuse L. Rev. 267
     (2008); Patrick J. Charles, The Second Amendment: The
    Intent and Its Interpretation by the States and the Supreme
    Court (2009); William G. Merkel, The District of Columbia
    v. Heller and Antonin Scalia’s Perverse Sense of
    Originalism, 
    13 Lewis & Clark L. Rev. 349
     (2009); Nathan
    Kozuskanich, Originalism in a Digital Age: An Inquiry Into
    the Right to Bear Arms, 29 J. Early Republic 585 (2009);
    Saul Cornell, St. George Tucker’s Lecture Notes, the Second
    Amendment, and Originalist Methodology: A Critical
    Comment, 
    103 Nw. U. L. Rev. 1541
     (2009); Richard A.
    Posner, In Defense of Looseness: The Supreme Court and
    Gun Control, New Republic, Aug. 26, 2008 (“In Defense of
    Looseness”); Richard A. Epstein, A Structural Interpretation
    of the Second Amendment: Why Heller Is (Probably) Wrong
    on Originalist Grounds, 
    59 Syracuse L. Rev. 171
     (2008));
    see also Robert J. Spitzer, Saving the Constitution from
    Lawyers: How Legal Training and Law Reviews Distort
    Constitutional Meaning 146–48 (2008); Dennis Baron,
    Corpus Evidence Illuminates the Meaning of Bear Arms,
    
    46 Hastings Const. L.Q. 509
    , 510–11, 513 (2009); Noah
    Shusterman, Armed Citizens 223–24 (2020).
    We are, of course, bound by the conclusion Heller drew
    from historical materials regarding the protection accorded
    by the Second Amendment to the individual right to keep
    and bear arms for self-defense, and I do not mean to suggest
    that that conclusion should be revisited. Rather, the salient
    fact for present purposes is that many jurists and scholars
    well-educated on the subject fundamentally disagree with
    64                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    the Supreme Court’s historical analysis in Heller,
    demonstrating that Second Amendment history is very much
    open to dispute.
    The Bumatay Dissent nonetheless characterizes history
    as both certain and static, as if we can obtain an enduring
    understanding of what happened in the past after engaging
    in a single, meticulous review of cut-and-dried evidence.
    See, e.g., Bumatay Dissent at 120–121.              But our
    understanding of history is, in fact, ever-changing. For one
    thing, we unearth new historical documents over time, and
    those documents sometimes lead us to revise our earlier
    understandings of history. Cf. Josh Blackman & James C.
    Phillips, Corpus Linguistics and the Second Amendment,
    Harv. L. Rev. Blog, Aug. 7, 2018. The advent of the internet
    and other tools has also dramatically changed our ability to
    access and systematically review historical documents.
    When Heller was decided, for example, the Supreme Court
    had access to “only a fairly narrow range of sources”
    regarding the common usage of the Second Amendment’s
    terms at the time the Second Amendment was drafted. 
    Id.
    Now, there are enormous databases of historical documents,
    including one overseen by Brigham Young University that
    comprises about one hundred thousand works produced
    between 1760 and 1799, such as letters, newspapers,
    sermons, books, and journals. 
    Id.
     The ability to perform
    electronic searches using such databases has led to
    substantial new discoveries regarding our nation’s history,
    including hypotheses related to the meaning of the term
    “keep and bear arms” in the Second Amendment. 
    Id.
    Society also progresses over time, resulting in changed
    attitudes that may in turn affect our view of history. Take
    the Reconstruction Era as an example. A “traditional
    portrait” of the era, showcased in films like Birth of a Nation
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       65
    and embraced for much of the twentieth century, framed
    President Andrew Johnson as a hero who restored home rule
    and honest government to the South in a triumph over radical
    Northerners, who sought to plunder the spoils of the region,
    and childlike freedmen, who were not prepared to exercise
    the political power that had been foisted upon them. Eric
    Foner, Reconstruction Revisited, 10 Revs. Am. Hist. 82, 82–
    83 (1982). But in the 1960s, following the Second
    Reconstruction and a change in attitude toward people of
    color, the narrative flipped. Freedmen were recast as heroes,
    white Southerners as villains, and the Reconstruction
    governments as far more competent than had previously
    been let on. 
    Id.
     at 83–84. A decade later, wary of
    exaggerating the faults and virtues of the people of the time,
    historians rejected both accounts and began questioning
    whether “much of importance happened at all” during the
    Reconstruction Era. 
    Id.
     at 84–85. The dominant account of
    the Reconstruction Era has continued to evolve over time,
    both because new scholars, many of them scholars of color,
    have contributed to the conversation, and because the events
    of the period appear quite different from the vantage point of
    passing time. 
    Id.
     at 86–95. In other words, interpreting
    history is not as simple as compiling and processing stacks
    of paper. See also, e.g., David W. Blight, Historians and
    “Memory,” Common Place, Apr. 2002; Jonathan Gienapp,
    Constitutional Originalism and History, Process: A Blog for
    American History (Mar. 20, 2017), http://www.processhist
    ory.org/originalism-history/.
    Additionally, judges are not trained historians, and the
    study of history is rife with potential methodological
    stumbling blocks. The volume of available historical
    evidence related to the legal question in any discrete Second
    Amendment controversy, for example, will vary enormously
    and may often be either vast or quite sparse.
    66                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    On the one hand, for legal questions as to which there is
    a wealth of historical evidence, an imprecise research
    methodology can lead to what has been “derisively referred
    to . . . as ‘law office history.’” In Defense of Looseness,
    supra. As then-Judge Posner explained it, “law office
    history” refers to a process by which a judge or advocate
    “sends his law clerks” or associates “scurrying to the library
    and to the Web for bits and pieces of historical
    documentation” that will support a given position on a legal
    issue. Id. When the clerks or associates are “numerous and
    able,” when they “enjoy[] the assistance of . . . capable
    staffs” such as the staff at the Supreme Court library, or
    when they can rely on similar labor distilled into “dozens and
    sometimes hundreds of amicus curiae briefs,” it becomes “a
    simple matter . . . to write a plausible historical defense” of
    the desired position. Id. Accordingly, even if an opinion
    appears to rely on a “breathtaking” number of historical
    references, the underlying analysis may not constitute
    “disinterested historical inquiry,” but may instead represent
    “the ability of well-staffed courts” or firms to pick from
    among the available historical sources those most conducive
    to a given proposition. Id.
    To so recognize is not to suggest that judicial inquiries
    under the “text, history, and tradition” test—as opposed to
    the inquiries of advocates, which are necessarily result-
    driven—would be directed in advance at reaching a
    foreordained result. Rather, the inquiries would be directed
    at reaching a result, which necessitates marshaling the
    available historical materials such that they support a single
    legal conclusion. See, e.g., Avani Mehta Sood, Motivated
    Cognition in Legal Judgments—An Analytic Review, 9 Ann.
    Rev. L. & Soc. Scis. 307, 308–10 (2013). But history,
    assessed in a genuinely neutral fashion, may not support one
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       67
    conclusion. Instead, it may support conflicting conclusions
    or no conclusion at all.
    Although a historical account with a thesis or viewpoint
    may read better than one that acknowledges ambiguity or
    irresolution, historians are trained to sift through materials
    with an underlying acceptance that the materials may or may
    not support one conclusion or another, or that the
    conclusions that can be drawn from the evidence may evolve
    over time. Put differently, historians need not resolve
    apparent contradictions and may follow the evidence where
    it leads. See Gienapp, supra. Courts do not have that luxury.
    Judges must definitively answer specific, detailed legal
    questions—here, whether the Second Amendment permits
    states to ban high-capacity magazines that allow a weapon
    to fire more than ten rounds without reloading. That need to
    provide an answer—referred to in the literature as
    “motivated thinking” or “motivated reasoning,” see, e.g.,
    Sood, supra—can skew a court’s historical analysis, much
    as scientific research can be undermined by the desire to
    make some discovery rather than none, see, e.g., Danielle
    Fanelli & John P. A. Ioannidis, U.S. Studies May
    Overestimate Effect Sizes in Softer Research, Proc. Nat’l
    Acad. Scis. U.S., Sept. 10, 2013, at 1–6.
    On the other hand, an inquiry into some legal
    questions—such as the question whether a specific
    contemporary arms regulation is lawful under the “text,
    history, and tradition” test—may turn on a very narrow array
    of available historical resources. As the Supreme Court
    recognized in the context of a Title VII dispute, “small
    sample size may, of course, detract from the value” of
    evidence. Int’l Bhd. of Teamsters v. United States, 
    431 U.S. 324
    , 339 n.20 (1977). This Court has so recognized as well,
    noting that if an inquiry relies on an unduly small number of
    68                       DUNCAN V. BONTA
    data points, it will have “little predictive value and must be
    disregarded.” Morita v. S. Cal. Permanente Med. Grp.,
    
    541 F.2d 217
    , 220 (9th Cir. 1976). This “small sample size”
    problem has been discussed in numerous scholarly contexts,
    including with respect to historical analyses involving
    firearms. See, e.g., James Lindgren & Justin L. Heather,
    Counting Guns in Early America, 
    43 Wm. & Mary L. Rev. 1777
    , 1826 (2002) (maintaining that a scholar published a
    book that made unsubstantiated claims about gun ownership
    in America based on faulty science, including a failure to
    account for and report sample sizes). So there may be
    occasions in which the universe of available historical
    evidence is too small for courts to draw reliable conclusions,
    rendering the “history” prong of the “text, history, and
    tradition” framework inoperable.
    Sample size issues and the drive to draw a single legal
    conclusion are not the only potential methodological pitfalls
    for the “text, history, and tradition” test. Cognitive biases
    ranging from confirmation bias to anchoring bias, see, e.g.,
    Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow 80–81, 119–28,
    324, 333 (2011), can cloud a judge’s analysis. 2 And very
    few judges have received formal training on technical
    elements of historiographical research design, such as the
    importance of drawing from varied sources and assessing
    sources to ferret out potential bias imparted by the author.
    The risk that error will result from these imperfections in the
    “history” prong of the “text, history, and tradition”
    framework counsels against adopting the framework as the
    controlling test for all Second Amendment disputes, as
    2
    Confirmation bias refers to the tendency to interpret new
    information as confirmation of one’s pre-existing assumptions or
    theories. Anchoring bias refers to the tendency to over-rely on the initial
    evidence we discover as we learn about a given topic. See 
    id.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       69
    opposed to relying on history as a useful tool embedded in a
    structured, sequential inquiry such as the two-step, tiered
    scrutiny approach.
    C.
    As flawed as the suppositions of objectivity and certainty
    are for the “text” and “history” prongs of the Bumatay
    Dissent’s proposed framework, as applied to discrete
    regulations, the focus on “tradition” is even more
    problematic with regard to those supposed virtues. Courts
    have “vast discretion in deciding which traditions to take
    into account” and “substantial discretion in determining how
    to define the tradition at issue.” John C. Toro, The Charade
    of Tradition-Based Substantive Due Process, 4 N.Y.U. J. L.
    & Liberty 172, 181 (2009). Additionally, even if a court
    finds that tradition does support a given legal outcome, the
    court “must take the further step of determining whether”
    that tradition “should receive modern-day protection—an
    inquiry which depends heavily” on the court making a
    contextual judgment that accounts for the contemporary
    legal milieu. 
    Id.
    In particular, a foundational question plaguing any
    tradition-based framework is “[w]hose traditions count.” Id.
    at 181. For example, in several substantive due process
    cases such as Lawrence v. Texas, 
    539 U.S. 558
    , 567–68
    (2003), the Supreme Court appealed to historical attitudes
    going back to ancient times to support its interpretation.
    Toro, supra, at 181–83.         But when determining in
    Washington v. Glucksberg, 
    521 U.S. 702
     (1997), whether
    individuals have a right to physician-assisted suicide, the
    Supreme Court disregarded a trove of ancient history
    supporting the practice even though that history had been
    extensively referenced in the opinion on review, and instead
    began its analysis by citing commentators from the thirteenth
    70                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    century. 
    Id. at 710
    ; see also Toro, supra, at 183–85.
    Whereas ancient authorities were, by and large, tolerant of
    suicide, St. Augustine’s interpretation of the demands of the
    Fifth Commandment drastically reshaped the way Western
    societies viewed the subject by the time of the thirteenth
    century. Toro, supra, at 184–85. The Supreme Court chose
    to begin its analysis at that point and, accordingly, held that
    the right to physician-assisted suicide is not deeply rooted in
    tradition. Glucksberg, 
    521 U.S. at 735
    .
    As this example illuminates, a framework that relies
    heavily on tradition is inherently indeterminate, because it
    often depends upon the choice of traditions on which to rely.
    My point is not that such choices are illegitimate—courts
    have to make decisions between competing legal positions,
    and such decisions necessarily require choices—but instead
    that there are choices that must be made in appealing to
    tradition. Without transparency as to those choices and a
    structured procedure for making those choices, the pretense
    of objectivity collapses.
    Moreover, there are frequently traditions that support
    each side of a constitutional controversy. Id. at 186. A
    framework focused predominantly on tradition leaves
    litigants free to cherry-pick from those traditions to justify
    their preferred results. Id.
    In Michael H. v. Gerald D., 
    491 U.S. 110
     (1989), for
    example, the Supreme Court addressed the constitutionality
    under the Fourteenth Amendment’s Due Process Clause of a
    California statute providing that “a child born to a married
    woman living with her husband is presumed to be a child of
    the marriage.” 
    Id. at 113
     (plurality opinion). The natural
    father of an adulterously conceived child brought suit,
    arguing that the law infringed upon his and the child’s due
    process right to maintain a relationship with one another. 
    Id.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       71
    Justice Scalia, writing for the plurality, disagreed,
    concluding that “our traditions have protected the marital
    family” and have generally declined to afford rights to the
    natural father of an adulterously conceived child. 
    Id.
     at 124–
    27 & n.6.
    Justice Brennan, in dissent, maintained that rather than
    focusing on historical traditions related to the rights of an
    adulterous natural father, the Court should instead focus on
    the historical tradition of affording great respect to the
    parent-child relationship. 
    Id. at 139
    . In defending that
    position, Justice Brennan noted that the concept of tradition
    “can be as malleable and as elusive as ‘liberty’ itself,” and
    admonished the plurality for “pretend[ing] that tradition
    places a discernible border around the Constitution.” 
    Id. at 137
    . Although that “pretense is seductive” because “it
    would be comforting to believe that a search for ‘tradition’
    involves nothing more idiosyncratic or complicated than
    poring through dusty volumes on American history,”
    “reasonable people can disagree about the content of
    particular traditions” and about “which traditions are
    relevant.” 
    Id.
    With respect to the Second Amendment, historical
    sources from the Founding Era through the late nineteenth
    century indicate that members of the public held vastly
    different views on gun ownership and gun regulation
    depending on where they lived, both in terms of
    geographical region and in terms of whether the individual
    lived in an urban or rural environment. See, e.g., Joseph
    Blocher & Darrell A. H. Miller, The Positive Second
    Amendment: Rights, Regulation, and the Future of Heller 20,
    29–35 (2018); Joseph Blocher, Firearm Localism, 
    123 Yale L.J. 82
    , 112–21 (2013). Because a litigant who advocates a
    certain outcome may cite predominantly to authorities from
    72                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    a region or locality that tends to support the litigant’s view,
    the “tradition” prong of the “text, history, and tradition” test
    is highly manipulable. Indeed, this aspect of the approach
    renders it akin, in many ways, to an analysis of legislative
    intent—a practice rejected by textualists because the
    “legislature is a hydra-headed body whose members may
    not” share a common view. Richard A. Posner, Reflections
    on Judging 189 (2013); see also Gienapp, supra. Similarly,
    the annals of history and lore rarely divulge a common view
    on what practices qualify as traditional.
    Relatedly, there are often permissive and restrictive
    traditions that “cut in opposite directions.” Toro, supra, 189.
    In the context of a case involving a patient’s right to refuse
    life-prolonging medical treatment, for example, the Supreme
    Court had to choose between two traditions—one permissive
    tradition of allowing the state to regulate suicide, and one
    restrictive tradition of forbidding states from interfering in
    private medical decisions involving refusal of treatment.
    Cruzan ex rel. Cruzan v. Dir., Mo. Dept. Health, 
    497 U.S. 261
    , 269–82 (1990). The Supreme Court ultimately ruled in
    favor of the restrictive tradition, but, from the perspective of
    adhering to our nation’s traditions, the opposite conclusion
    would have also been justified.
    So far, no jurist or academic has come forward with a
    workable method of choosing between conflicting restrictive
    and permissive traditions. See Toro, supra, at 190–91.
    Crucially, for our purposes, the “text, history, and tradition”
    test provides no guideposts on how a court should navigate
    indistinct traditions or weigh between conflicting traditions,
    and it therefore cannot provide a workably objective or bias-
    filtering framework for adjudicating Second Amendment
    controversies regarding discrete, specific regulations.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         73
    Even if there is only one relevant tradition at issue within
    a given case, there is still the problem of deciding how
    narrowly or broadly to define the tradition. That choice can
    be outcome determinative regarding the court’s assessment
    of the impact of the given tradition on, for example, the
    validity of a specific arms regulation. Id. at 186. A historical
    prohibition on carrying firearms in “fairs, markets, and in the
    presence of the King’s ministers,” for example, “could
    support regulations of wildly different scope: wherever
    people congregate, wherever the state is in control, wherever
    people buy things, or wherever government agents are
    stationed.” Blocher & Miller, supra, at 130; see also Peter
    J. Smith, Originalism and Level of Generality, 
    51 Ga. L. Rev. 485
    , 487 (2017); Frank H. Easterbrook, Abstraction
    and Authority, 
    59 U. Chi. L. Rev. 349
    , 358 (1992).
    According to an analysis of fifty recent Second
    Amendment opinions, a court’s decision to use a higher level
    of generality when describing the core legal question in a
    given dispute usually supported striking down a challenged
    arms regulation, whereas a court’s decision to use a lower
    degree of generality typically led to the law being upheld.
    Mark Anthony Frassetto, Judging History: How Judicial
    Discretion in Applying Originalist Methodology Affects the
    Outcome of Post-Heller Second Amendment Cases, 29 Wm.
    & Mary Bill Rights J. 413, 415, 438–39 (2020). In the
    context of public carry disputes, for example, the study
    found that “[j]udges favoring a broad right to carry in public
    have generally framed the question as whether the Second
    Amendment protects a right to carry arms in public at all,”
    whereas “judges who have favored upholding public carry
    restrictions have” phrased the question more narrowly,
    characterizing the question as “whether carrying a concealed
    weapon in public was understood to be within the scope of
    the right protected by the Second Amendment at the time of
    74                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    ratification.” 
    Id.
     at 439–41 (citation omitted). As this
    discussion highlights, several factors inherent in the
    “tradition” inquiry can have a dispositive impact on the
    outcome of a legal dispute. A mandatory, rigid “text,
    history, and tradition” framework, contrary to the assertions
    of its proponents, provides no objective method for
    navigating such factors that would ensure objectivity and
    consistency in the law.
    Next, even if an asserted right does find support in a
    relevant tradition and even if courts can agree on the proper
    way to characterize that tradition, courts would still be left
    with the problem of determining whether a particular
    tradition should be carried forward as constitutionally
    sanctioned. That determination necessarily involves, albeit
    behind a veil, policy and value-balancing judgments of the
    kind that the Bumatay Dissent claims the “text, history, and
    tradition” test would avoid.
    Our nation’s history includes many traditions that would
    not now be accorded constitutional protection. See Toro,
    supra, at 193. One example that has been given is the now-
    rejected assumption that a woman is subject to her husband’s
    control and governance, a concept that gave rise to the
    widespread doctrinal rule at common law that a husband
    could not be convicted of sexually assaulting his wife. Id.
    If a man sought constitutional protection for “the right to
    have forcible intercourse” with his wife, his claim would,
    unfortunately, find ample support in our nation’s history and
    traditions. Id.; see also, e.g., Heart of Atlanta Motel, Inc. v.
    United States, 
    379 U.S. 241
    , 257–62 (1964) (holding that
    private race discrimination in places of public
    accommodation, although traditional at the time, could be
    constitutionally forbidden). A test that places great weight
    on historical traditions can undermine the very bedrock of
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        75
    constitutional governance, by overriding later, well-accepted
    legislative policies and by precluding the judiciary from
    deriving and applying principles of constitutional
    interpretation capable of adjudging when our practices,
    however traditional, have deviated from our nation’s
    precepts.
    Considering in this regard the Second Amendment in
    particular, racially discriminatory gun regulations have been
    commonplace throughout our nation’s history, ranging from
    statutes that expressly singled out people of color in their
    text, to statutes that disproportionately impacted people of
    color, such as prohibitions on the sale of certain less costly
    guns. Br. of Amicus Curiae Rutherford Institute in Supp. Of
    Pet’rs at 13–18, N.Y. State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n v. Bruen,
    No. 20-843 (July 20, 2021). Although a court would
    invalidate such a law in the modern day under the Equal
    Protection Clause, it is notable that the “text, history, and
    tradition” test itself provides no mechanism to distinguish
    unjust or unconstitutional traditions, such as the tradition of
    having race-based arms restrictions, from other traditions.
    In short, the tradition prong of the “text, history, and
    tradition” test offers even less guidance on the validity of
    discrete arms regulations under the Second Amendment than
    the already inadequate “text” and “history” prongs. It
    thereby invites inconsistency in the law and reliance of
    judges on their own personal policy preferences, contrary to
    the purported attributes of the approach touted by Judge
    Bumatay and by others who have supported the adoption of
    the “text, history, and tradition” test.
    D.
    The “text, history, and tradition” approach, as laid out in
    the Bumatay Dissent, suffers from two major additional
    76                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    defects. First, a key aspect of the rubric—the one most
    emphasized by the Dissent, see Bumatay Dissent at 127–
    137—is whether a particular weapon, ammunition, or other
    arms-related hardware is “in common use at the time.”
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 627
     (quoting United States v. Miller,
    
    307 U.S. 174
    , 179 (1939)). If so, the Bumatay Dissent
    posits, the device should receive Second Amendment
    protection.
    But when must a device be in “common use” to receive
    protection? Apparently, at the time of a court’s decision.
    Bumatay Dissent at 103, 105, 134––137 (reasoning that
    large-capacity magazines “are owned by millions of people
    nationwide” and “enjoy widespread popularity today”); see
    also VanDyke Dissent at 165–167 (discussing the present-
    day popularity of high-capacity weapons and relying on that
    evidence when assessing which weapons are “in common
    use”). Federal courts of appeal have indeed largely relied
    upon present-day statistical data when discussing whether a
    weapon qualifies as “in common use at the time.” Blocher
    & Miller, 
    supra,
     at 89 & n.126. 3 But, as our colleagues on
    the Seventh Circuit explained, “relying on how common a
    weapon is at the time of litigation would be circular.”
    3
    An unanswered question regarding this interpretation of the
    “common use” inquiry is what metric a court should apply when
    determining whether a weapon qualifies as in common use. “One can
    come to quite a range of conclusions” regarding the prevalence of the
    same weapon “depending on whether one calculates common use by
    absolute numbers, by absolute dollars, or by the percentage of the
    market,” whether that be the market for firearms in general, for the
    specific type of firearm at issue, “or for all self-defense technology.”
    Blocher & Miller, supra, at 89 (citing Eugene Volokh, Implementing the
    Right to Keep and Bear Arms for Self-Defense: An Analytical
    Framework and a Research Agenda, 
    56 UCLA L. Rev. 1443
    , 1480
    (2009)).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       77
    Friedman v. City of Highland Park, 
    784 F.3d 406
    , 409 (7th
    Cir. 2015). “[I]t would be absurd to say that the reason why
    a particular weapon can be banned is that there is a statute
    banning it” which, in turn, prevented the weapon from
    becoming commonly owned. 
    Id.
     In other words, “[a] law’s
    existence can’t be the source of its own constitutional
    validity.” Id.; see also Blocher & Miller, 
    supra, at 89
     (“law-
    abiding people [must] choose weapons from among the
    weapons that are lawful to possess, leading to the seemingly
    circular result that what is protected by the Constitution
    depends on what has been regulated by the government”).
    To regard an arms-related device’s popularity as “the
    source of its own constitutional[ity]” is no less circular.
    Devices may become popular before their danger is
    recognized and regulated, or the danger of a particular device
    may be exacerbated by external conditions that change over
    time. And a device may become popular because of
    marketing decisions made by manufacturers that limit the
    available choices. Here, for example, large-capacity
    magazines come as a standard part on many models of
    firearms, so a consumer who wants to buy those models has
    no choice regarding whether the weapon will include a
    magazine that can fire more than ten rounds without
    reloading. Principal Opinion at 17, 39–40. In any event, the
    prevalence of a particular device now is not informative of
    what the Second Amendment encompassed when adopted,
    or when the Fourteenth Amendment was added to the
    Constitution, or when the Second Amendment was declared
    incorporated into the Fourteenth Amendment and so
    applicable to state and local governments in McDonald, 
    561 U.S. at 791
     (plurality opinion).
    This is not to say that new weapons do not receive
    Second Amendment protection. To the contrary, Heller
    78                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    makes clear that the Second Amendment protects “all
    instruments that constitute bearable arms, even those that
    were not in existence at the time of the founding.” Heller,
    
    554 U.S. at 582
    ; see also Caetano v. Massachusetts,
    
    577 U.S. 411
    , 411–12 (2016). And an assessment of
    prevalence must play some role in a court’s analysis; Heller
    explained that the Second Amendment’s protection extends
    only to those weapons commonly used “by law-abiding
    citizens for lawful purposes.” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    624–25,
    627; see also Fyock v. Sunnyvale, 
    779 F.3d 991
    , 997–98 (9th
    Cir. 2015).
    Notably, however, Heller focused not just on the
    prevalence of a weapon, but on the primary use or purpose
    of that weapon. The Supreme Court explained that, at the
    time of the Second Amendment’s adoption, “all citizens
    capable of military service . . . would bring the sorts of
    lawful weapons that they possessed at home to militia duty”
    and although “[i]t may well be true today that a militia, to be
    as effective as militias in the [eighteenth] century, would
    require [more] sophisticated arms,” such “modern
    developments” cannot change the scope of the Second
    Amendment right, which remains rooted in that original
    rationale. 
    Id.
     at 627–28. The Bumatay Dissent’s excessive
    focus on the current prevalence of high-capacity magazines
    is therefore misplaced, as a proper analysis must account for
    the purpose and use of a weapon in addition to its current
    popularity.
    This discussion also surfaces another defect in the “text,
    history, and tradition” test—namely, the framework
    provides courts with little to no guidance in cases involving
    the regulation of new and emerging weapons technologies.
    Presumably, history and tradition will either be silent on or
    offer very little insight into the constitutionality of measures
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       79
    aimed at such weapons, since, by definition, the weapons
    lack a historical pedigree.
    Heller approves of the practice of adopting new
    regulations in the face of new technologies, as it expressly
    indicates that bans on the private possession of machine guns
    are valid. 
    554 U.S. at 624
    . Such bans arose gradually in the
    1920s and 1930s after machine guns became widespread,
    more than 130 years after the states ratified the Second
    Amendment. Friedman, 784 F.3d at 408. And “[n]othing in
    Heller suggests that a constitutional challenge to bans on
    private possession of machine guns brought during the
    1930s, soon after their enactment, should have succeeded.”
    Id.
    It appears likely that in many Second Amendment cases,
    courts will be called upon to assess whether a regulation
    targeting new and emerging weapons technologies adheres
    to the commands of the Second Amendment. Now-Justice
    Kavanaugh, in Heller II, responded to this concern by stating
    that courts must “reason by analogy from history and
    tradition.” Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at 1275
    . But resort to analogy
    can go only so far, as it does not provide room to account for
    contemporary circumstances not foreseeable at the time of
    the Second Amendment’s adoption or incorporation.
    Additionally, reasoning by analogy in these circumstances
    would have no guiderails and would be subject to the “level
    of generality” concerns discussed above. See supra pp. 73–
    74.
    In sum, because the “text, history, and tradition” test
    does not adequately account for the primary purpose of
    currently popular weapons technologies and does not speak
    to how courts should analyze regulations targeting new and
    emerging technologies, the framework is, for those reasons
    80                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    as well, inadequate for addressing the constitutionality of
    specific gun regulations.
    * * *
    We are, of course, bound by Heller, which directs us to
    consider the text of the Second Amendment and our
    country’s history and traditions when determining the
    general scope of the Second Amendment right. But a
    framework that relies exclusively on those considerations
    simply does not provide an administrable framework for
    adjudicating Second Amendment controversies once a
    court’s analysis moves beyond the overall scope of the
    Second Amendment and into the constitutionality of specific
    gun measures. As the Supreme Court of Ohio helpfully
    summarized, the “text, history, and tradition” test is not
    workable because it leaves the following critical questions
    unanswered:
    What should a court do when [text, history,
    and tradition] do not provide a clear answer?
    If the [district court] reviewed this case again
    and found the historical record unclear,
    would we not be right back where we started?
    More generally, how would the dissenting
    opinion address the concern that historical
    evidence can be viewed in different ways by
    different people? How would it deal with an
    argument that changed circumstances make
    reliance on certain Framing Era practices
    unjustified? Would it reject that notion
    reflexively on the ground that modern
    concerns are wholly irrelevant under the text-
    history-and-tradition-based approach? Or
    does it acknowledge that present-day
    judgments have a role to play? . . . Does one
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         81
    simply look for an historical analogue to the
    law at issue? And if analogues exist, how
    widespread must they be? How does one deal
    with modern technologies and circumstances
    that did not exist at the time of the Founding?
    State v. Weber, 
    163 Ohio St. 3d 125
    , 139–40 (2020), cert.
    denied, --- S. Ct. --- (2021). Because the “text, history, and
    tradition” approach does not fill these gaps, it cannot supply
    both a necessary and sufficient condition for striking down a
    law which seeks to regulate the Second Amendment right.
    Nor, for the reasons I have surveyed, is the “text, history, and
    tradition” test the objective, principled method for
    adjudicating Second Amendment legal controversies that the
    Bumatay Dissent repeatedly insists that it is.
    In contrast, the two-step, tiered scrutiny framework—
    which I discuss more fully in Part III—consistently applied
    in Second Amendment cases in this Court and in ten other
    Circuits, see Principal Opinion at 23–24, offers two cures for
    the key defects in the propounded “test, history, and
    tradition” approach. Specifically, under the two-step
    approach, a court may forthrightly recognize that, as to a
    specific form of contemporary regulation, the historical
    record is thin or inconclusive. The court may then move
    forward with its analysis by assuming without deciding that
    the Second Amendment is nevertheless implicated by the
    policy or regulation at issue, as the principal opinion does
    here. Principal Opinion at 30 (citing several additional
    examples). Moreover, the two-step approach provides
    guidance regarding a court’s proper steps once ambiguity in
    the available materials is acknowledged, thereby
    constraining judicial discretion at that juncture. Once a
    court moves on to step two, it must decide what level of
    heightened scrutiny applies, and then engage in a relevant,
    82                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    above-board, tiered analysis. 
    Id.
     at 23–24,30–46. Under the
    “text, history, and tradition” approach, by contrast, the well
    runs dry as soon as the court has exhausted the text of the
    Second Amendment and evidence of our nation’s history and
    traditions, even when those factors are, by any fair
    evaluation, indeterminate. The “text, history, and tradition”
    approach therefore obscures, rather than reveals and
    channels, the pivotal decisionmaking process, leaving
    judges with unfettered and unexamined discretion once a
    court’s regulation-specific Second Amendment analysis
    moves beyond incontestable history and tradition, as it is
    often bound to do.
    II.
    The Bumatay Dissent provides a powerful illustration of
    the shortcomings of the “text, history, and tradition”
    approach. Beginning with the “common use” inquiry, the
    Dissent repeatedly emphasizes that large-capacity
    magazines are currently prevalent, but it spends close to no
    time discussing the primary purpose or use of such weapons,
    instead simply asserting that the weapons are “commonly
    used by Americans for lawful purposes.” See, e.g., Bumatay
    Dissent at 103, 108, 127–131, 134–137. Relatedly, in
    response to the principal opinion’s observation that high-
    capacity magazines are specifically suited for large-scale
    military use rather than for self-defense, Principal Opinion
    at 28, 35–37, Judge VanDyke avers that, “almost every
    attribute of a weapon that makes it more effective for
    military purposes also makes it more effective for self-
    defense: more accurate, faster firing, the ability to engage
    multiple targets quickly—these are all characteristics of a
    weapon that make it better for both military and self-defense
    purposes.” VanDyke Dissent at 162–163.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       83
    But, as Judge Gould explained in his concurrence in
    Nordyke v. King, 
    644 F.3d 776
     (9th Cir. 2011) (Gould, J.,
    concurring), on reh’g en banc, 
    681 F.3d 1041
     (9th Cir.
    2012), although “laws barring possession of military-grade
    weapons might be argued to substantially burden the right to
    have weapons,” such laws “are indisputably permissible
    because they do not tread on the Second Amendment’s core
    purposes.” 
    Id.
     at 797 n.6. “I do not mean to be facetious,”
    Judge Gould wrote, “but to me it is obvious that the Second
    Amendment does not protect the right to keep a nuclear
    weapon in one’s basement, or a chemical or biological
    weapon in one’s attic.” 
    Id.
     Although nuclear bombs and
    chemical and biological weapons are, of course, in a
    completely different class of weapon than large-capacity
    magazines in terms of the level of danger they pose, and they
    are thankfully nowhere near as widespread as large-capacity
    magazines, neither of those observations gets to the heart of
    what the primary purpose or use of a large-capacity
    magazine is. Arguably, the primary use of a large-capacity
    magazine, by design, is for effective combat engagement in
    a theater of war. Principal Opinion at 28, 35–37. If true,
    then regardless of their prevalence in society, large-capacity
    magazines would not fall within the shelter of the Second
    Amendment.
    Turning to the subject of assessing the constitutionality
    of regulations addressing new or emerging technologies,
    Judge Bumatay’s analysis again misses the mark. As
    California and amici supporting the government explain,
    restrictions on semi-automatic weapons capable of firing a
    large number of rounds without reloading were enacted
    nationally and in several states shortly after such weapons
    became widely commercially available. Opening Br. at 27–
    31; Reply Br. at 10–12; Br. of Amicus Curiae Everytown for
    Gun Safety in Supp. Of Def.-Appellant at 4–9; see also
    84                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Blocher & Miller, 
    supra,
     at 42–45; Robert J. Spitzer,
    America Used to Be Good at Gun Control, N.Y. Times (Oct.
    3, 2017). Historically, gun regulation has followed that
    pattern, with regulations arising not when a new technology
    is invented, but instead when the technology begins “to
    circulate widely in society.” Robert J. Spitzer, Gun Law
    History in the United States and Second Amendment Rights,
    
    80 Law & Contemp. Probs. 55
    , 67–71 (2017). The ban on
    high-capacity magazines at issue in this case therefore
    represents a “continuation of nearly a century” of arms
    regulations targeting weapons that can fire a large number of
    rounds without reloading, Br. of Amicus Curiae Everytown
    for Gun Safety in Supp. Of Def.-Appellant at 9. The statute
    thereby arguably constitutes a longstanding prohibition that
    should not be disturbed by application of the Second
    Amendment, at least as long as the “longstanding
    prohibition” inquiry accounts for the date when the target of
    a restriction became commonplace. And based on Heller’s
    commentary regarding machine guns, 
    554 U.S. at 624
    ; see
    also supra p. 79, the inquiry should account for that factor.
    The Bumatay Dissent ignores this context. It asserts that
    large-capacity magazines have not been “subject to
    longstanding regulatory measures,” and that it is “not a close
    question” whether the statute at issue must accordingly be
    struck down. Bumatay Dissent at 108. In support, the
    Dissent provides scattered examples of weapons with similar
    firing capacities that date back as far as 1580, but it does not
    contend that such weapons were widely commercially
    available at the time, arguing only that such weapons had
    become common “by the time of the Second Amendment’s
    incorporation,” apparently referring to 1868. Bumatay
    Dissent at 132–134 (citing David B. Kopel, The History of
    Firearm Magazines and Magazine Prohibitions, 
    78 Alb. L. Rev. 849
    , 851 (2015)). Judge Bumatay nevertheless
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                             85
    declares that, because regulations targeting high-capacity
    magazines did not exist during the Founding Era, they
    cannot be considered longstanding regulations under the
    “text, history, and tradition” test. 
    Id.
     at 140–141; see also 
    id.
    at 137–142.
    But, as explained, even taking a generous (to the
    Bumatay Dissent) view on what qualifies as “common,” and
    even relying on the same source cited by the Dissent, high-
    capacity magazines did not become common until the late
    nineteenth century or early twentieth century. See Br. of
    Amicus Curiae Everytown for Gun Safety in Supp. Of Def.-
    Appellant at 4–9; Kopel, supra, at 851. The Bumatay
    Dissent’s “text, history, and tradition” framework would
    thereby require states to adopt regulations before
    circumstances warrant, sometimes before a problem even
    exists. Such a requirement would hamstring the ability of
    states to regulate nearly any new or emerging weapons
    technologies. The “text, history, and tradition” test, as a
    result, would fail to comply with McDonald’s instruction
    that the Second Amendment must be construed such that
    states retain the ability to “devise solutions to social
    problems that suit local needs and values” and to
    “experiment[] with reasonable firearms regulations.”
    
    561 U.S. at 785
     (plurality opinion). 4
    4
    The dissents assert that the Second Amendment right has been
    treated as if it were “disfavored.” See, e.g., Bumatay Dissent at 111–
    112; VanDyke Dissent at 145–146. But in terms of what the Second
    Amendment protects, the Supreme Court explained in Heller that the
    Second Amendment right has long existed in harmony with reasonable
    regulation, and the Court approved a non-exhaustive range of
    presumptively lawful regulations, without announcing any criteria for
    determining whether non-listed kinds of arms regulations are or are not
    lawful. 
    554 U.S. at
    626–27; see also, e.g., Blocher & Miller, 
    supra,
     at
    86                    DUNCAN V. BONTA
    In terms of methodology, Judge Bumatay does not
    explain how he approached the historical research
    underlying the observations made in his opinion. Although
    such methodological disclosures are not common in judicial
    opinions, they are standard in academic articles, and for
    good reason. As explained above, see supra pp. 65–68, even
    slightly defective methodology can undermine the
    persuasive force of research, and historiographical research
    is full of potential methodological pitfalls. How large is the
    pool of available evidence that the Bumatay Dissent drew
    upon? Is it large enough that we may glean reliable
    conclusions from it? Did the Dissent draw from that pool in
    a fashion that would reflect the range of differing opinions
    throughout history on gun ownership and gun regulation,
    such as by ensuring that its sources came from differing
    geographical regions and from both urban and rural areas?
    Is it possible the Bumatay Dissent relies upon inaccurate
    sources, or sources that include bias imparted by the author?
    Is it possible that Judge Bumatay approached the research
    with a desire to find a clear answer—not any particular clear
    answer—to the legal question in this case, such that the
    research process itself became skewed?             Were the
    individuals who performed the key research tasks for the
    Bumatay Dissent aware of cognitive biases like confirmation
    bias and anchoring bias, and did those individuals actively
    seek to counteract the impact of such biases on their
    research?
    185. And there are several prominent examples of state and federal
    courts striking down gun regulations that press those indistinct
    boundaries. Id. at 185–86; see also Principal Opinion at 41–42.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                           87
    The truth is, we simply do not know the answer to those
    questions, and the “text, history, and tradition” test is not
    designed to supply readers with those answers. As a result,
    we cannot be confident in the validity of the observations
    made in the Bumatay Dissent. In contrast, the two-step,
    tiered scrutiny approach embraced by the principal opinion,
    as I will explain in more detail in Part III, relies on a familiar,
    well-established methodology that requires judges to
    expressly disclose, on the public record, the reasoning that
    guides their decision in any given case. And it is designed
    to accommodate situations where evidence of history and
    tradition is conflicting or inconclusive. In this respect, the
    two-step, tiered scrutiny approach represents a superior
    framework for adjudicating Second Amendment
    controversies involving the constitutionality of discrete
    regulations.
    III.
    Looking in detail at the attributes of the two-step, tiered
    scrutiny approach more broadly, I begin from the established
    proposition that the Second Amendment is “not unlimited.”
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 595
    . Although its reach extends to
    modern weapons just as the First Amendment protects
    modern forms of speech and the Fourth Amendment applies
    to searches of modern forms of technology, 
    id. at 582
    , the
    Second Amendment has multiple limitations. It does not
    prevent regulation aimed at “dangerous or unusual”
    weapons, including complete bans on such weapons. 
    Id. at 623, 627
    . It does not undermine the validity of
    “longstanding prohibitions” such as laws that prevent
    firearms from being carried into schools. 
    Id.
     at 626–27. And
    it “by no means eliminates” a state’s ability “to devise
    solutions to social problems that suit local needs and values,”
    and to “experiment[] with reasonable firearms regulations.”
    88                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    McDonald, 
    561 U.S. at 785
     (plurality opinion). Because the
    Second Amendment provides nuanced, not absolute,
    protection to individuals’ right to keep and bear arms for
    self-defense, and because, for the reasons I surveyed, the
    “text, history, and tradition” test cannot meaningfully and
    predictably resolve which discrete regulations accord with
    the Amendment’s protections, see supra Parts I, II, some
    other method of structuring judicial inquiry into that
    question is needed.
    As the principal opinion explains, the two-step
    approach—which provides for both a historical inquiry and
    a tiered scrutiny inquiry similar to that used to apply other
    constitutional protections to discrete and variable
    regulations—has been embraced by the federal courts of
    appeal. Principal Opinion at 23–24. A consideration of the
    theoretical and historical underpinnings of the tiers of
    scrutiny indicates that the two-step approach represents a
    well-established framework for guiding and openly
    communicating, as opposed to hiding, a court’s dual
    attention to historical background as well as to the real-world
    burdens and the governmental concerns at stake. The
    principal opinion’s two-step, tiered scrutiny approach, in
    particular, is in no way the free-for-all vehicle for sanitizing
    judges’ policy preferences that Judge Bumatay makes it out
    to be. To the contrary, the set of prescribed steps embedded
    in the tiers of scrutiny demand self-awareness on the part of
    judges and lead to a public-facing decisionmaking process
    grounded in an evidentiary record.
    A.
    Lochner v. New York, 
    198 U.S. 45
     (1905), can be viewed
    as the “starting point” for the development of each of the
    three tiers of scrutiny. See Donald L. Beschle, No More
    Tiers?: Proportionality as an Alternative to Multiple Levels
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         89
    of Scrutiny in Individual Rights Cases, 
    38 Pace L. Rev. 384
    ,
    387–88 (2018); see also Moshe Cohen-Eliya & Iddo Porat,
    American Balancing and German Proportionality: The
    Historical Origins, 8 Int’l J. Const. L. 263, 280 (2010).
    There were three opinions in Lochner. Justice Peckham’s
    opinion for the majority held that the “right” of employers
    and employees to contract with one another regarding
    working conditions was subsumed within the Fourteenth
    Amendment’s Due Process Clause. Lochner, 
    198 U.S. at
    53–54. For New York’s statute limiting the working
    hours of bakers to survive review, Justice Peckham wrote,
    the government would need to satisfy an exacting test:
    demonstrating that the statute had a “direct relation” and was
    “necessary” to serve an “appropriate and legitimate” state
    interest, such as the state’s interest in health and safety. 
    Id.
    at 56–58. The opinion went on to invalidate the statute,
    concluding that the government failed to carry its burden
    under that test. 
    Id.
     at 64–65. Over time, Justice Peckham’s
    somewhat familiar test “evolve[d] into the modern strict
    scrutiny test.” Beschle, supra, at 388.
    Justice Holmes, in dissent, advocated on behalf of a
    substantially more deferential approach, whereby the statute
    would be invalidated only if it was clear that any “rational
    and fair man necessarily would admit that the statute
    proposed would infringe fundamental principles.” Lochner,
    
    198 U.S. at 76
     (Holmes, J., dissenting). The Holmes dissent
    may therefore be viewed as an early predecessor of the
    rational basis test. Justice Harlan, also in dissent, struck a
    middle ground. He agreed with Justice Holmes that any
    “liberty of contract” implicit in the Constitution may be
    constitutionally subject to regulation that “the state may
    reasonably prescribe for the common good and the well-
    being of society.” 
    Id. at 68
     (Harlan, J., dissenting). But his
    proposed approach was not nearly as deferential as Justice
    90                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Holmes’s. Instead, he would have required the state to
    produce a reasonable amount of evidence in support of the
    regulation before it could be found valid. 
    Id.
     at 69–74. This
    middle-of-the-road alternative can be characterized as a
    forebear to intermediate scrutiny.
    Although Lochner did not survive the test of time, “a
    significant question remained” regarding whether the
    analytical frameworks employed by Justices Peckham,
    Holmes, and Harlan were themselves inappropriate, as
    opposed to being inappropriately applied in that case. Id. at
    389. The Supreme Court began addressing this question in
    the late 1930s, ultimately embracing the use of heightened
    scrutiny in a variety of cases. Id.; Cohen-Eliya & Porat,
    supra, at 282–83. In United States v. Carolene Products
    Co., 
    304 U.S. 144
     (1938), for instance, the Supreme Court
    clarified that heightened scrutiny is appropriate when a court
    evaluates any one of three types of legislation: a statute in
    conflict with a fundamental right such as those enumerated
    in the Bill of Rights, a statute that undermines the healthy
    functioning of our democracy, or a statute that harms
    “discrete and insular minorities.” 
    Id.
     at 152 n.4.
    From the 1960s through the 1980s, the strict scrutiny test
    became entrenched in constitutional decisionmaking and
    was gradually shaped into the familiar two-part standard that
    requires government actors to demonstrate that a statute has
    a compelling underlying purpose, and that the statute is
    necessary—meaning there are not any less restrictive
    alternatives—to achieve the relevant purpose. See, e.g.,
    Palmore v. Sidoti, 
    466 U.S. 429
    , 432–33 (1984); Regents of
    the Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 
    438 U.S. 265
    , 290–91 (1978);
    Loving v. Virginia, 
    388 U.S. 1
    , 11 (1967); Harper v. Va.
    State Bd. of Elections, 
    383 U.S. 663
    , 670 (1966);
    McLaughlin v. Florida, 
    379 U.S. 184
    , 191–92 (1964);
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         91
    NAACP v. Alabama ex rel. Flowers, 
    377 U.S. 288
    , 307–08
    (1964); see also Richard H. Fallon, Jr., Strict Judicial
    Scrutiny, 
    54 UCLA L. Rev. 1267
    , 1273–85 (2007). The
    earliest applications of the strict scrutiny test included,
    among other subjects, racial discrimination cases involving
    the Equal Protection Clause, e.g., Palmore, 
    466 U.S. at
    432–
    33, free speech cases, e.g., Flowers, 
    377 U.S. at
    307–08, and
    voting rights cases, e.g., Harper, 
    383 U.S. at 670
    . Each
    application fell within at least one of the three buckets
    outlined in the Carolene Products footnote four. Rational
    basis review also became widespread during the same
    period, applying in essentially all other cases. See, e.g.,
    Minnesota v. Clover Leaf Creamery Co., 
    449 U.S. 456
    , 469
    (1981); N.D. State Bd. of Pharmacy v. Snyder’s Drug Stores,
    Inc., 
    414 U.S. 156
    , 164–67 (1973); Ferguson v. Skrupa,
    
    372 U.S. 726
    , 728–29 (1963).
    Around this time, constitutional scholars such as
    Professor Gerald Gunther voiced a concern that strict
    scrutiny was overly harsh, as it was “strict in theory, [but]
    fatal in fact.” Adam Winkler, Fatal in Theory and Strict in
    Fact: An Empirical Analysis of Strict Scrutiny in the Federal
    Courts, 
    59 Vand. L. Rev. 793
    , 794 (2006). Others lamented
    that rational basis scrutiny veered too far in the opposite
    direction, leading to essentially per se findings of validity in
    every case where it applied. Beschle, supra, at 392. There
    was a sense that the two-tiered system of judicial scrutiny
    was lacking, and that some middle ground was needed. Id.
    at 393. After a series of cases in which the Supreme Court
    nominally applied rational basis review to gender
    discrimination claims but engaged in an analysis that
    appeared much more like strict scrutiny review, see
    Weinberger v. Weisenfeld, 
    420 U.S. 636
    , 642–45, 648–53
    (1975); Cleveland Bd. of Educ. v. LaFleur, 
    414 U.S. 632
    ,
    639–48 (1974); Reed v. Reed, 
    404 U.S. 71
    , 74–77 (1971),
    92                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    the Supreme Court eventually expressly adopted a new tier
    of scrutiny, one that was less exacting than strict scrutiny but
    more rigorous than rational basis review, see Craig v. Boren,
    
    429 U.S. 190
    , 197–98 (1976); see also Plyler v. Doe,
    
    457 U.S. 202
    , 215–21 (1982). The middle-ground approach
    that had its roots in Justice Harlan’s Lochner dissent
    developed into what is now referred to as intermediate
    scrutiny. Beschle, supra, at 393–94.
    Although the development of intermediate scrutiny
    created a more nuanced version of the tiered system of
    judicial scrutiny in constitutional cases, a perception
    persisted that it may be useful for the tiers of scrutiny both
    to become less rigid and to include more context-specific
    guidance. Id. at 394–97. Over time, these critiques were
    met with changes to the tiered scrutiny method of analysis.
    For example, differing tests that embed a tiered scrutiny
    method of review have arisen in free speech cases, such that
    a slightly different structure of analysis applies depending on
    whether the speech is commercial in nature or occurs in a
    public forum, as well as whether a disputed regulation
    targets specific speech-related content, including by
    targeting a specific viewpoint. See, e.g., Central Hudson
    Gas & Elec. Corp. v. Pub. Serv. Comm’n of N.Y., 
    447 U.S. 557
    , 566 (1980) (commercial speech regulation); Carey v.
    Brown, 
    447 U.S. 455
    , 461–62 (1980) (public forum speech
    regulation); Turner Broad. Sys., Inc. v. FCC, 
    520 U.S. 180
    ,
    189 (1997) (content-neutral speech regulation); Perry Educ.
    Ass’n v. Perry Local Educators’ Ass’n, 
    460 U.S. 37
    , 48–49
    (1983) (content-based speech regulation); see also R.
    Randall Kelso, The Structure of Modern Free Speech
    Doctrine: Strict Scrutiny, Intermediate Review, and
    “Reasonableness” Balancing, 8 Elon L. Rev. 291, 292–95
    (2016). Numerous cases have also applied strict scrutiny and
    rational basis review more flexibly, such that per se findings
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       93
    of validity and invalidity have become less common. See,
    e.g., Romer v. Evans, 
    517 U.S. 620
    , 631–36 (1996); City of
    Cleburne v. Cleburne Living Ctr., Inc., 
    473 U.S. 432
    , 439–
    42 (1985); Grutter v. Bollinger, 
    539 U.S. 306
    , 326–44
    (2003); see also Marcy Strauss, Reevaluating Suspect
    Classification, 
    35 Seattle U. L. Rev. 135
    , 135–36 n.5
    (2011). Thus, more than one hundred years after Lochner
    first aired the predecessors of the various available
    approaches, the tiered scrutiny method of analysis has
    developed into a framework that serves to guide and
    constrain judicial decisionmaking across a variety of
    scenarios. Although imperfect, the tiered scrutiny method of
    analysis has risen to the challenge of providing a structured
    framework for adjudicating cases involving individual
    rights.
    B.
    Today, a heightened tier of scrutiny applies when courts
    evaluate a wide range of legal claims, including equal
    protection claims involving suspect and quasi-suspect
    classifications; claims involving fundamental rights such as
    the right to vote, the right to free speech, and the right to
    freely exercise one’s religion; and claims involving the
    inverse commerce clause. See, e.g., Loving, 
    388 U.S. at 11
    (race discrimination); Craig, 
    429 U.S. at
    197–98 (gender
    discrimination); Clark v. Jeter, 
    486 U.S. 456
    , 465 (1988)
    (legitimate parenthood discrimination); Burdick v. Takushi,
    
    504 U.S. 428
    , 432–34 (1992) (right to vote); Central Hudson
    Gas & Elec. Corp., 
    447 U.S. at 566
     (commercial speech
    regulation); Turner Broad. Sys., Inc., 
    520 U.S. at 189
    (content-neutral speech regulation); Fulton v. City of
    Philadelphia, 
    141 S. Ct. 1868
    , 1876–77 (2021) (free exercise
    of religion); Tenn. Wine & Spirits Retailers Ass’n v. Thomas,
    
    139 S. Ct. 2449
    , 2467–68 & n.11, 2473–74 (2019) (inverse
    94                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    commerce clause); see also Aharon Barak, Proportionality:
    Constitutional Rights and Their Limitations 510–11 (2012).
    The second stage of the principal opinion’s two-step
    approach, as mentioned, analyzes the degree to which an
    arms-related regulation burdens the Second Amendment
    right when determining whether to apply strict scrutiny,
    intermediate scrutiny, or “no scrutiny at all (as in Heller).”
    Principal Opinion at 25. Of the established, non-Second
    Amendment tiered scrutiny frameworks, this aspect of the
    two-step, tiered scrutiny approach is perhaps most analogous
    to the Anderson-Burdick doctrine used for election and
    voting rights cases. Under that doctrine, the rigor of a court’s
    inquiry into the validity of an election-related regulation
    depends upon the extent to which the challenged regulation
    burdens constitutional rights, such as the right to vote.
    Burdick, 
    504 U.S. at
    432–34. If the right to vote is severely
    burdened, strict scrutiny applies. 
    Id.
     If the right to vote is
    burdened in a “reasonable” manner, then less rigorous
    scrutiny applies instead. Id.; see also Dean Milk Co. v. City
    of Madison, 
    340 U.S. 349
    , 353–54 (1951) (applying a similar
    framework to disputes involving the inverse commerce
    clause).
    Use of the two-step, tiered scrutiny approach for Second
    Amendment cases, then, represents yet another instantiation
    of the tiered method of analysis evolving to meet the filtering
    needs of various contextual scenarios involving
    constitutional rights. No reason has been suggested, in the
    dissents in this case or elsewhere, as to why a well-
    established structure for constitutional adjudication should
    apply to a wide range of constitutional protections but not to
    the Second Amendment.
    We adopted the two-step approach for Second
    Amendment claims in United States v. Chovan, 735 F.3d
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        95
    1127 (9th Cir. 2013). There, we reviewed and analyzed
    other Circuits’ application of the two-step inquiry and
    explained that the two-step approach “reflects the Supreme
    Court’s holding in Heller that, while the Second Amendment
    protects an individual right to keep and bear arms, the scope
    of that right is not unlimited.” Id. at 1136. As Chovan
    suggests, we adopted the two-step approach because it
    provides crucial guideposts that assist and constrain our
    inquiry once we move beyond assessing the overall scope of
    the Second Amendment and into applying the Amendment
    to a specific measure or regulation. This aspect of the two-
    step approach is, indeed, its greatest asset. The elements of
    a heightened scrutiny analysis are fixed and widely known,
    lending themselves to a mode of reasoning and explication
    on the part of judges that disciplines the judicial inquiry and
    is accessible to the litigants and the public. Application of
    the two-step approach to the Second Amendment is therefore
    likely to promote both judicial introspection and public
    insight into the judicial decisionmaking process.
    Use of the two-step approach may also encourage
    participation in the development of an understanding about
    the constitutional reach of the Second Amendment by the
    other branches of government, nationally and locally.
    Because the tiers of scrutiny offer a clear structure that
    communicates to the audiences of judicial opinions the type
    and sequence of arguments that must be made to ensure that
    a piece of legislation or other governmental enactment
    survives constitutional review, application of the tiered
    scrutiny approach may encourage legislators and other
    government actors carefully to assess whether their actions
    have a proper purpose and are appropriately tailored to
    serving that purpose. In other words, judicial review under
    the two-step, tiered scrutiny approach would have a
    96                    DUNCAN V. BONTA
    disciplining effect not only on the judiciary, but on
    lawmakers as well.
    The tiered method of scrutiny may also assist courts in
    isolating “process failures” in the legislative process. Vicki
    C. Jackson, Constitutional Law in an Age of Proportionality,
    
    124 Yale L.J. 3094
    , 3151 (2015). As the Bumatay Dissent
    acknowledges, see Bumatay Dissent at 103–104, 110, one of
    the primary functions of the judiciary is to ensure that the
    legislative process is not systemically infected by “process
    failures,” which arise when lawmakers, either consciously or
    subconsciously, allow prejudice or discrimination to shape
    the law. John Hart Ely, Democracy and Distrust: A Theory
    of Judicial Review 102–04 (1980). But as I have explained,
    the “text, history, and tradition” approach is ill-suited to that
    end. See supra Parts I, II.
    In contrast, at the second stage of the two-step, tiered
    scrutiny approach, a court must carefully consider—as the
    principal opinion does here, see Principal Opinion at 30–
    40—the parties’ submissions and the evidentiary and
    legislative record to assess the degree of impact a particular
    regulation has on the Second Amendment right. Having
    done so, the court then chooses which level of scrutiny is
    appropriate and applies the prescribed level of rigor to its
    assessment of both the interests that gave rise to the
    regulation and—again, after detailed attention to the parties’
    submissions and the evidentiary and legislative records—the
    degree to which the regulation advances that asserted
    interest.     Because heightened scrutiny requires the
    government to both articulate a justification for its disputed
    action and provide an evidentiary record supporting that
    justification, it is likely to smoke out process failures. At the
    same time, because legislators are aware of this fact,
    application of the two-step approach may also produce front-
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                         97
    end incentives that prevent many process failures from
    occurring in the first place. Application of the tiered scrutiny
    approach may thereby facilitate judicial oversight into
    whether the legislative branch is acting impartially and
    responsibly, with due regard to the underlying constitutional
    protection.
    Rejecting this process-oriented mode of protecting
    constitutional rights as unreliable, Judge Bumatay
    characterizes the two-step, tiered scrutiny approach as
    “nothing more than a black box used by judges to uphold
    favored laws and strike down disfavored ones.” Bumatay
    Dissent at 104. He is mistaken. For the reasons explained,
    the two-step approach is not an invitation to engage in
    freewheeling judicial decisionmaking or generalized
    interest-balancing. Instead, it prescribes a careful, structured
    evaluation that is preserved for posterity and based on an
    evidentiary record. The two-step, tiered scrutiny approach
    thus places a heavy burden on the state to justify any
    intrusions into individual rights and, again, requires judges
    to explain their decisions in an accessible, transparent
    fashion that encourages public oversight.
    To be sure, analyses of this kind can be poorly done, and
    in any specific instance may or may not succeed in
    uncovering and minimizing the impact of judges’ policy
    preferences on the outcome of the case. But where there is
    such failure, the failure will be exposed via ascertainable
    lapses in the court’s logical or factual analysis, giving rise to
    either critiques by other courts or reversal on appeal. So the
    process-structuring aspects of the tiered scrutiny approach
    constrain the ability of the judicial system as a whole to
    allow personal policy preferences to determine outcomes,
    whether or not the process has the same success in each
    opinion written.       The “text, history, and tradition”
    98                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    framework offers none of these benefits. It provides no
    guidelines for the many cases in which the historical record
    is inconclusive, and thereby both invites biased
    decisionmaking and shrouds that decisionmaking in secrecy.
    The Bumatay Dissent further asserts that the Supreme
    Court already rejected the two-step, tiered scrutiny approach
    when it “bristled” at the suggestion in Justice Breyer’s
    dissent that courts should engage in a “freestanding ‘interest
    balancing’ approach” when adjudicating Second
    Amendment cases. Id. at 112–115 & n.10 (quoting Heller,
    
    554 U.S. at 634
    ). But, in fact, Justice Breyer’s proposal was
    a thinly veiled reference to the proportionality test, the
    dominant international framework for adjudicating gun
    rights cases. See, e.g., Moshe Cohen-Eliya & Iddo Porat,
    The Hidden Foreign Law Debate in Heller: The
    Proportionality Approach in American Constitutional Law,
    
    46 San Diego L. Rev. 368
    , 369–70 (2009). Although the
    proportionality test has some broad similarities to the tiers of
    scrutiny, comparative law theorists note that the tiered
    scrutiny approach offers substantial benefits that the
    proportionality approach lacks. Namely, the proportionality
    approach directs judges to engage in a case-by-case
    weighing analysis that assesses whether the benefits of a
    disputed policy outweigh or are sufficient to justify the
    degree of intrusion into the right at issue in the case. 
    Id.
    at 380–81. The tiers of scrutiny, in contrast, supply a pre-
    determined weighing calculus triggered by the details of
    each case. Barak, supra, at 512, 521–22. In other words, the
    tiered scrutiny approach provides a real check on judicial
    power, because much of the central weighing analysis in
    each case is not within the control of individual judges and
    is instead “bounded” by a pre-existing categorical
    framework. Id. Once again, this aspect of the tiered scrutiny
    approach cabins judicial discretion and promotes long-run
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                        99
    objective decisionmaking,         to    the    degree     such
    decisionmaking is possible.
    Finally, the Bumatay Dissent states that this Circuit’s
    precedent regarding intermediate scrutiny in Second
    Amendment cases has “dispense[d] with the requirement of
    narrow tailoring” by adopting a “reasonable fit” tailoring
    requirement. Bumatay Dissent at 111 n.8. But Vivid
    Entertainment, LLC v. Fielding, 
    774 F.3d 566
     (9th Cir.
    2014), the case cited by the Dissent for the proposition that
    intermediate scrutiny ordinarily requires “narrow tailoring,”
    clarified that “[i]n order to be narrowly tailored for purposes
    of intermediate scrutiny,” the regulation need not be the least
    restrictive means of achieving the government interest, as
    the requirement is “satisfied so long as the regulation
    promotes a substantial government interest that would be
    achieved less effectively absent the regulation.” Id. at 580.
    Our Second Amendment case law defines the “reasonable
    fit” requirement in exactly the same way, noting that
    although a firearm regulation need not utilize the least
    restrictive means of achieving its underlying objective, it
    must “promote a substantial government interest that would
    be achieved less effectively absent the regulation.” See, e.g.,
    Mai v. United States, 
    952 F.3d 1106
    , 1116 (9th Cir. 2020),
    reh’g denied, 
    974 F.3d 1082
     (2020), cert. denied, 
    141 S. Ct. 2566
     (2021); United States v. Torres, 
    911 F.3d 1253
    , 1263
    (9th Cir. 2019); Fyock, 799 F.3d at 1000. There is therefore
    no merit to the suggestion that the Ninth Circuit’s
    application of intermediate scrutiny in Second Amendment
    cases is somehow less exacting than its application of the
    standard in other kinds of cases.
    Further, Judge Bumatay cites no precedent in support of
    his assertion that intermediate scrutiny review would allow
    the government to justify a policy on grounds that are not
    100                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    “genuine.” Bumatay Dissent at 111 n.8. To the contrary, in
    cases where intermediate scrutiny applies, the burden falls
    on the government to demonstrate that an important interest
    underlies the policy, and that interest “must be genuine, not
    hypothesized or invented post hoc in response to litigation.”
    United States v. Virginia, 
    518 U.S. 515
    , 533 (1996); see also,
    e.g., Karnoski v. Trump, 
    926 F.3d 1180
    , 1199–1202 (9th Cir.
    2019).
    CONCLUSION
    Rather than representing a “much less subjective”
    framework for decisionmaking in Second Amendment cases
    involving discrete arms regulations, Bumatay Dissent
    at 121, the “text, history, and tradition” test obscures the
    myriad indeterminate choices that will arise in most such
    cases. The tiered scrutiny approach, in contrast, serves to
    guide and constrain a court’s analysis in Second Amendment
    disputes regarding discrete arms regulations, as it has done
    for numerous other constitutional provisions. I therefore
    have no doubt that the principal opinion in this case properly
    rejects the Bumatay Dissent’s invitation to abandon the
    tiered scrutiny approach for adjudicating Second
    Amendment controversies involving discrete regulations in
    favor of the “text, history, and tradition” approach. We are
    very wise not to do so, for all of the reasons I have explained.
    HURWITZ, Circuit Judge, concurring:
    I join Judge Graber’s opinion for the Court unreservedly.
    I ordinarily would not say more, but I am reluctantly
    compelled to respond to the dissent of my brother Judge
    VanDyke, who contends that the “majority of our court
    distrusts gun owners and thinks the Second Amendment is a
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       101
    vestigial organ of their living constitution.” That language
    is no more appropriate (and no more founded in fact) than
    would be a statement by the majority that today’s dissenters
    are willing to rewrite the Constitution because of their
    personal infatuation with firearms. Our colleagues on both
    sides of the issue deserve better.
    I recognize that colorful language captures the attention
    of pundits and partisans, and there is nothing wrong with
    using hyperbole to make a point. But my colleague has no
    basis for attacking the personal motives of his sisters and
    brothers on this Court. His contention that prior decisions of
    this Circuit—involving different laws and decided by
    different panels—somehow demonstrate the personal
    motives of today’s majority fails to withstand even cursory
    analysis. By such reasoning, one also would have to
    conclude that my friends in today’s minority who, like me,
    are deciding a Second Amendment case for the first time, are
    also driven by personal motives.
    Judge VanDyke has no way of knowing the personal
    views of other members of the Court about firearms. Indeed,
    members of the Court not among today’s dissenters have
    firearms in their homes. Members of this Court not among
    today’s dissenters have volunteered for service in the active
    military or the National Guard (the modern “well regulated
    Militia”) and bore arms during that service. But those
    personal experiences—or the lack of them—do not drive the
    decision on the important issue at hand. That issue is
    whether the people of the State of California are forbidden
    by the United States Constitution to enact measures like the
    contested statute to protect themselves from gun violence.
    Reasonable judges can disagree as to whether the
    California statute crosses a constitutional line. I believe that
    Judge Graber has persuasively explained why it does not.
    102                 DUNCAN V. BONTA
    But I do not question the personal motives of those on the
    other side of that issue. On the seriousness of the problem
    that California seeks to address, however, there should be no
    dispute. However infrequent mass shootings may be, hardly
    anyone is untouched by their devastation. The Ninth Circuit
    lost one of its own, Chief Judge Roll of the District of
    Arizona, to precisely such a shooting, notwithstanding Judge
    VanDyke’s assumption that federal judges are somehow
    immune from such dangers. Other members of the Court
    have lost family and friends to gun violence. I recount these
    matters of common knowledge not, as Judge VanDyke
    suggests, to import my personal experiences into the
    decision-making process in this case, but instead to
    emphasize that despite the alleged “infrequency” of mass
    shootings, they have effects far beyond the moment that are
    the proper subject of legislative consideration. And, to the
    extent that the frequency of such carnage is relevant, surely
    the people and their elected representatives are far better
    situated in the first instance than we to make that
    determination. The people of California should not be
    precluded from attempting to prevent mass murders simply
    because they don’t occur regularly enough in the eyes of an
    unelected Article III judge.
    The crucial issue here is what level of scrutiny to apply
    to the California law. We can respectfully disagree whether
    the measures California has adopted violate the Second
    Amendment. But an attack on the personal motives of the
    members of this Court who reach the same result in this case
    as every other Circuit to address this issue neither advances
    our discourse nor gives intellectual support to the legal
    positions argued by my respected dissenting colleagues. I
    start from the assumption that Judge VanDyke, whose
    dissent displays an admirable knowledge of firearms and
    ammunition, dissents today not because of his personal
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       103
    experiences or policy preferences but instead because he
    sincerely believes that his oath of fidelity to the Constitution
    requires that we invalidate what our colleague Judge Lee
    described in the now-vacated majority opinion for the three-
    judge panel as a “well-intentioned” law designed by the
    sovereign state of California to “curb the scourge of gun
    violence.” Duncan v. Becerra, 
    970 F.3d 1133
    , 1140–41 (9th
    Cir. 2020). I simply ask that today’s majority, each of whom
    took the very same oath, be treated with the same level of
    respect.
    BUMATAY, Circuit Judge, with whom IKUTA, and R.
    NELSON, Circuit Judges, join, dissenting:
    When Justice Brandeis observed that states are the
    laboratories of democracy, he didn’t mean that states can
    experiment with the People’s rights. See New State Ice Co.
    v. Liebmann, 
    285 U.S. 262
    , 311 (1932) (Brandeis, J.,
    dissenting). But that’s what California does here. The state
    bans magazines that can carry over ten rounds—a firearm
    component with a long historical lineage commonly used by
    Americans for lawful purposes, like self-defense. Indeed,
    these magazines are lawfully owned by millions of people
    nationwide and come standard on the most popular firearms
    sold today. If California’s law applied nationwide, it would
    require confiscating half of all existing firearms magazines
    in this country. California nevertheless prevents its citizens
    from owning these magazines. But the Constitution protects
    the right of law-abiding citizens to keep and bear arms
    typically possessed for lawful purposes. On en banc review,
    we should have struck down the law.
    Contrary to the Second Amendment, however, our court
    upholds California’s sweeping ban on so-called large-
    104                     DUNCAN V. BONTA
    capacity magazines. 1 It can’t be because these magazines
    lack constitutional protection. The majority assumes they
    are. And it can’t be because the ban is longstanding.
    California’s law is of recent vintage. Rather, the law
    survives because the majority has decided that the costs of
    enforcing the Second Amendment’s promise are too high.
    The majority achieves this result by resorting to the tiers-of-
    scrutiny approach adopted by this court years ago. Under
    that balancing test, the government can infringe on a
    fundamental right so long as the regulation is a “reasonable
    fit” with the government’s objective.
    In reality, this tiers-of-scrutiny approach functions as
    nothing more than a black box used by judges to uphold
    favored laws and strike down disfavored ones. But that is
    not our role. While we acknowledge that California asserts
    a public safety interest, we cannot bend the law to acquiesce
    to a policy that contravenes the clear decision made by the
    American people when they ratified the Second
    Amendment.
    In District of Columbia v. Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    , 595
    (2008), the Supreme Court held that the Second Amendment
    confers “an individual right to keep and bear arms.” This
    watershed case provided clear guidance to lower courts on
    the proper analytical framework for adjudicating the scope
    of the Second Amendment right. That approach requires an
    extensive analysis of the text, tradition, and history of the
    Second Amendment. Our court should have dispensed with
    1
    We use the term “large-capacity magazine” for consistency with
    the majority but note that magazines with the capacity to accept more
    than ten rounds of ammunition are standard issue for many firearms.
    Thus, we would be more correct to refer to California’s ban on “standard-
    capacity magazines.”
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      105
    our interest-balancing approach and hewed to what the
    Supreme Court told us to do. Under that approach, the
    outcome is clear. Firearms and magazines capable of firing
    more than ten rounds have existed since before the Founding
    of the nation. They enjoyed widespread use throughout the
    nineteenth and twentieth centuries. They number in the
    millions in the country today. With no longstanding
    prohibitions against them, large-capacity magazines are thus
    entitled to the Second Amendment’s protection. It’s the
    People’s decision in ratifying the Constitution, not
    California’s, that dictates the result here.
    For these reasons, we respectfully dissent.
    I. Factual Background
    In California, a “large-capacity magazine” is “any
    ammunition feeding device with the capacity to accept more
    than 10 rounds.” 
    Cal. Penal Code § 16740
    . Since 2000,
    California has prohibited the manufacture, importation, and
    sale of large-capacity magazines. See Act of July 19, 1999,
    ch. 129, 1999 Cal. Stat. §§ 3, 3.5. Thirteen years later, the
    California legislature prohibited the receipt and purchase of
    large-capacity magazines. See 
    2013 Cal. Stat. 5299
    , § 1.
    And three years after that, the California legislature made it
    unlawful to possess large-capacity magazines. See 
    2016 Cal. Stat. 1549
    , § 1; 
    Cal. Penal Code § 32310
    (a), (c). Shortly
    after, California voters adopted Proposition 63, which
    strengthened California’s magazine ban by making
    possession punishable by up to one year in prison. See 
    Cal. Penal Code § 32310
    (c). There’s no grandfather clause—the
    law applies no matter when or how the magazine was
    acquired. See 
    id.
    Today, California citizens who possess large-capacity
    magazines have four options: remove the magazine from the
    106                    DUNCAN V. BONTA
    state; sell the magazine to a licensed firearms dealer;
    surrender the magazine to a law enforcement agency for
    destruction; or permanently alter the magazine so that it
    cannot accept more than ten rounds. 
    Id.
     §§ 16740(a),
    32310(d).
    The question before us is whether California’s magazine
    ban violates the Second Amendment. It does.
    II. Legal Background
    The Second Amendment commands that the “right of the
    people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” U.S.
    Const. Amend. II. At the outset, it’s worth emphasis that the
    Second Amendment guarantees a pre-existing, fundamental,
    natural right. That’s because it is necessary to “protect and
    maintain inviolate the three great and primary rights of
    personal security, personal liberty, and private property.”
    1 William Blackstone, Commentaries on the Laws of
    England, *136, *139. In other words, the right is among
    “that residuum of human rights, which is not intended to be
    given up to society, and which indeed is not necessary to be
    given for any good social purpose.” 2
    The Second Amendment’s fundamental nature follows
    from its close connection to the right of self-defense. As
    John Adams explained:
    Resistance to sudden violence, for the
    preservation not only of my person, my limbs
    and life, but of my property, is an
    2
    Letter from Richard Henry Lee to Governor Edmund Randolph
    (Oct. 16, 1787), https://archive.csac.history.wisc.edu/Richard_Henry_L
    ee_to_Edmund_Randolph.pdf.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                           107
    indisputable right of nature which I have
    never surrendered to the public by the
    compact of society, and which perhaps, I
    could not surrender if I would. 3
    Judge George Thatcher, a member of the First United States
    Congress, contrasted rights conferred by law with those that
    are natural; the right of “keeping and bearing arms”
    belonged in the latter category as it is “coeval with man.” 4
    The fundamental nature of the Second Amendment has
    been well recognized by the Supreme Court. At its core, the
    Court held, the Second Amendment protects the “right of
    law-abiding, responsible citizens to use arms in defense of
    hearth and home.” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 635
    . The protection
    is an individual one and extends to all bearable arms that are
    typically possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful
    purposes, like self-defense. 
    Id. at 582, 595, 625
    . Moreover,
    the right is so “fundamental” and “deeply rooted in this
    Nation’s history and tradition,” that it is “fully applicable to
    the States.” McDonald v. City of Chicago, 
    561 U.S. 742
    ,
    750, 767 (2010) (simplified).
    3
    Boston Gazette, Sept. 5, 1763, reprinted in 3 The Works of John
    Adams 438 (Charles F. Adams ed., 1851), in Anthony J. Dennis,
    Clearing the Smoke from the Right to Bear Arms and the Second
    Amendment, 
    29 Akron L. Rev. 57
    , 73 (1995).
    4
    Scribble-Scrabble, Cumberland Gazette, Jan. 26, 1787, reprinted
    in Firearms Law and the Second Amendment: Regulation, Rights, and
    Policy, Johnson et al. 300 (2d ed. 2017). Scribble-Scrabble was the pen
    name of George Thatcher. See Patrick J. Charles, Scribble Scrabble, the
    Second Amendment, and Historical Guideposts: A Short Reply to
    Lawrence Rosenthal and Joyce Lee Malcolm, 
    105 Nw. U. L. Rev. 1821
    ,
    1825 (2011).
    108                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    III.      California’s Large-Capacity Magazine Ban Is
    Unconstitutional
    From this background, we turn to the Second
    Amendment’s application to this case. From the start, the
    majority misses the mark, the most fundamental error being
    the use of an improper framework to analyze Second
    Amendment challenges. Once again, our court applies a
    two-step, tiers-of-scrutiny approach. But that approach is
    inconsistent with what the Second Amendment commands
    and what the Supreme Court requires. On en banc review,
    we should have scrapped this regime and adopted what the
    Supreme Court tells us is the proper analytical framework—
    one that looks to the text, history, and tradition of the Second
    Amendment.
    Under that analytical framework, California’s ban on
    large-capacity magazines cannot withstand a Second
    Amendment challenge. Large-capacity magazines are
    bearable arms that are commonly owned for lawful
    purposes, and not subject to longstanding regulatory
    measures. This is not a close question. It flows directly from
    Heller.
    A. Heller’s Analytical Framework
    1. The Supreme Court Rejected an Interest-
    Balancing Test
    Before turning to what Heller did, it’s important to
    understand what it did not do. Heller did not give lower
    courts license to pursue their own conception of the Second
    Amendment guarantee. While Heller did not answer all
    questions for all times, as discussed below, it provided a
    framework for analyzing Second Amendment issues without
    resorting to the familiar tiers-of-scrutiny approach. Instead
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                            109
    of recognizing this, lower courts, including our own,
    routinely narrow Heller and fill the supposed vacuum with
    their own ahistorical and atextual balancing regime. This
    contradicts Heller’s express instructions.
    The majority continues this error by reaffirming our
    court’s two-step Second Amendment inquiry. Maj. Op. 23–
    24. Under that test, we ask two questions: (1) “if the
    challenged law affects conduct that is protected by the
    Second Amendment”; and if so, (2) we “choose and apply
    an appropriate level of scrutiny.” 
    Id.
     (simplified).
    The step one inquiry often pays lip service to Heller: it
    asks whether the law “burdens conduct protected by the
    Second Amendment,” United States v. Chovan, 
    735 F.3d 1127
    , 1136 (9th Cir. 2013), “based on a historical
    understanding of the scope of the [Second Amendment]
    right,” Jackson v. City & Cnty. Of San Francisco, 
    746 F.3d 953
    , 960 (9th Cir. 2014) (simplified). To determine whether
    the challenged law falls outside the scope of the
    Amendment, we look to whether “persuasive historical
    evidence show[s] that the regulation [at issue] does not
    impinge on the Second Amendment right as it was
    historically understood.” Silvester v. Harris, 
    843 F.3d 816
    ,
    821 (9th Cir. 2016). Thus, the first step asks if the conduct
    is protected by the Second Amendment as a historical
    matter. 5
    5
    The majority does not bother to do the hard work of examining the
    historical record and merely assumes that the magazine ban infringes on
    the Second Amendment. Such an analytical step blinds the majority to
    the long historical tradition of weapons capable of firing more than ten
    rounds in this country and the exceptional nature of California’s ban
    here. Cf. Mai v. United States, 
    974 F.3d 1082
    , 1091 (Bumatay, J.,
    110                       DUNCAN V. BONTA
    It is at step two where our court goes astray. Instead of
    ending the inquiry based on history and tradition, our court
    layers on a tier of scrutiny—an exercise fraught with
    subjective decision-making. In picking the appropriate tier,
    we operate a “sliding scale” depending on the severity of the
    infringement. 
    Id.
     Practically speaking, that means putting a
    thumb on that scale for “intermediate scrutiny.” In over a
    dozen post-Heller Second Amendment cases, we have never
    adopted strict scrutiny for any regulation. 6 That’s because
    our court interprets the sliding scale to require intermediate
    scrutiny so long as there are “alternative channels for self-
    defense.” Jackson, 746 F.3d at 961. 7
    dissenting from the denial of reh’g en banc) (“By punting the analysis of
    the historical scope of the Second Amendment . . . , we let false
    assumptions cloud our judgment and distort our precedent even further
    from the original understanding of the Constitution.”).
    6
    See Young v. Hawaii, 
    992 F.3d 765
    , 773 (9th Cir. 2021) (en banc);
    United States v. Singh, 
    979 F.3d 697
    , 725 (9th Cir. 2020); Mai v. United
    States, 
    952 F.3d 1106
    , 1115 (9th Cir. 2020); United States v. Torres,
    
    911 F.3d 1253
    , 1263 (9th Cir. 2019); Pena v. Lindley, 
    898 F.3d 969
    , 979
    (9th Cir. 2018); Teixeira v. County of Alameda, 
    873 F.3d 670
    , 678 (9th
    Cir. 2017) (en banc); Mahoney v. Sessions, 
    871 F.3d 873
    , 881 (9th Cir.
    2017); Bauer v. Becerra, 
    858 F.3d 1216
    , 1221 (9th Cir. 2017); Fisher v.
    Kealoha, 
    855 F.3d 1067
    , 1070–71 (9th Cir. 2017); Fortson v. L.A. City
    Attorney’s Office, 
    852 F.3d 1190
    , 1194 (9th Cir. 2017); Silvester,
    843 F.3d at 827; Wilson v. Lynch, 
    835 F.3d 1083
    , 1093 (9th Cir. 2016);
    Peruta v. Cnty. of San Diego, 
    824 F.3d 919
    , 942 (9th Cir. 2016) (en
    banc); Fyock v. City of Sunnyvale, 
    779 F.3d 991
    , 999 (9th Cir. 2015);
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 965; Chovan, 735 F.3d at 1138.
    7
    Once again, our court fails to pay attention to Heller with this type
    of analysis. Heller expressly says, “[i]t is no answer to say . . . that it is
    permissible to ban the possession of handguns so long as the possession
    of other firearms (i.e., long guns) is allowed.” 
    554 U.S. at 629
    ; see also
    Caetano v. Massachusetts, 
    577 U.S. 411
    , 421 (2016) (Alito, J.,
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                                 111
    What’s more, we often employ a toothless “intermediate
    scrutiny,” upholding the regulation if it “reasonabl[y] fit[s]”
    the state’s asserted public-safety objective. 8 Maj. Op. 15. In
    other words, so long as a firearms regulation aims to achieve
    a conceivably wise policy measure, the Second Amendment
    won’t stand in its way. In effect, this means we simply give
    concurring) (“But the right to bear other weapons is ‘no answer’ to a ban
    on the possession of protected arms.”). Likewise, it is no answer to say—
    as Judge Graber’s concurrence explicitly does—that citizens may defend
    their homes during an attack with multiple firearms or magazines or by
    reloading their firearms instead of using a large-capacity magazine.
    Graber Concurrence 54–55. While the concurrence calls the burden of
    carrying multiple firearms or magazines and the delay of reloading
    magazines mere “inconvenience[s],” 
    id.,
     the record shows that such
    alternatives impair the ability of citizens to defend themselves. Stated
    simply, the unpredictable and sudden nature of violent attacks may
    preclude the effective use of multiple firearms and magazines and the
    ability to reload weapons. Limiting self-defense to these alternate means
    would disadvantage law-abiding citizens, who may not have proper
    training to reload firearms or gather multiple armaments under the
    trauma and stress of a violent attack.
    8
    The “reasonable fit” modification to intermediate scrutiny
    dispenses with the requirement of narrow tailoring. See, e.g., Vivid
    Entertainment, LLC v. Fielding, 
    774 F.3d 566
    , 580 (9th Cir. 2014)
    (holding that a statute must be “narrowly tailored” to survive
    intermediate scrutiny). We appropriated the “reasonable fit” standard
    from “a specific, and very different context” under the First Amendment:
    “facially neutral regulations that incidentally burden freedom of speech
    in a way that is no greater than is essential.” Mai, 974 F.3d at 1101
    (VanDyke, J., dissenting from the denial of reh’g en banc). But tailoring
    ensures that the government’s asserted interest is its “genuine
    motivation”—that “[t]here is only one goal the classification is likely to
    fit . . . and that is the goal the legislators actually had in mind.” Brief for
    J. Joel Alicea as Amicus Curiae Supporting Petitioners at 20, N.Y. State
    Rifle & Pistol Ass’n v. Bruen, (July 20, 2021) (No. 20-843) (quoting John
    Hart Ely, Democracy and Distrust 146 (1980)). Dispensing with narrow
    tailoring thus abdicates our responsibility to test the government’s true
    interest in a regulation.
    112                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    a blank check to lawmakers to infringe on the Second
    Amendment right. Indeed, post-Heller, we have never
    struck down a single firearms regulation. 9
    All this interest balancing is in blatant disregard of the
    Court’s instructions. Nowhere in Heller or McDonald did
    the Supreme Court pick a tier of scrutiny for Second
    Amendment challenges. Nor did the Court compare the
    relative costs of firearms regulations to their potential
    public-safety benefits, adopt a sliding scale, look at
    alternative channels of self-defense, or see if there was a
    reasonable fit between the regulation and the state’s
    objective. The absence of these balancing tools was not
    accidental. The Court made clear that such judicial
    balancing is simply incompatible with the guarantees of a
    fundamental right. Time and time again, the Supreme Court
    expressly rejected the means-end balancing approach
    inherent in the two-step test applied by our court. We should
    have followed their directions.
    First was Heller. In that case, the Court soundly rejected
    any sort of interest-balancing in assessing a handgun ban. In
    dissent, Justice Breyer criticized the majority for declining
    to establish a level of scrutiny to evaluate Second
    Amendment restrictions. He then proposed adopting an
    “interest-balancing inquiry” for Second Amendment
    questions, weighing the “salutary effects” of a regulation
    against its “burdens.”        Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    689–90
    (Breyer, J., dissenting). In response, the Court bristled at the
    suggestion that a constitutional right could hinge on the cost-
    benefit analysis of unelected judges:
    9
    See footnote 6.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                               113
    We know of no other enumerated
    constitutional right whose core protection has
    been subjected to a freestanding “interest-
    balancing” approach. The very enumeration
    of the right takes out of the hands of
    government—even the Third Branch of
    Government—the power to decide on a case-
    by-case basis whether the right is really
    worth insisting upon.        A constitutional
    guarantee subject to future judges’
    assessments of its usefulness is no
    constitutional guarantee at all.
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 634
     (majority opinion). Rather than
    entertaining what tier of scrutiny should apply to the Second
    Amendment, the Court noted that the Amendment itself was
    “the very product of an interest balancing by the people,”
    and that courts are simply not permitted to “conduct [that
    balancing] anew.” 
    Id. at 635
     (emphasis in original). In sum,
    Heller struck down the handgun ban at issue because those
    firearms are commonly used by law-abiding citizens for
    lawful purposes, not because the ban failed intermediate
    scrutiny. 10
    10
    The majority asserts that Heller rejected Justice Breyer’s “interest
    balancing inquiry”—not because of the Court’s disapproval of tiers of
    scrutiny—but because Justice Breyer did not use the precise words
    “intermediate scrutiny.” Maj. Op. 25–26. We do not think the Court
    would be so focused on form over substance to reject Justice Breyer’s
    argument because of nomenclature. Indeed, the type of inquiry the
    majority engages in—such as weighing the ban’s effect on mass
    shooters, 
    id.
     at 46—is exactly the kind of balancing between
    “government public-safety concerns” and Second Amendment interests
    114                     DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Two years later came McDonald. There, the Court was
    again emphatic that the Second Amendment right was not
    subject to “interest balancing.” 
    561 U.S. at 785
    . McDonald
    reiterated the Court’s “express[] reject[ion]” of “the
    argument that the scope of the Second Amendment right
    should be determined by judicial interest balancing.” 
    Id.
    (citing Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    633–35). The Court explicitly
    rejected some state courts’ approach to permit balancing
    tests for firearm rights. 
    Id.
     The Court reasoned that the
    Fourteenth Amendment did not apply “only a watered-
    down, subjective version of the individual guarantees of the
    Bill of Rights” against the States. 
    Id.
     (simplified).
    Once again responding to Justice Breyer, McDonald
    disclaimed the notion that the Amendment is to be assessed
    by calculating its benefits and costs. Justice Breyer, in
    dissent, noted that incorporating the Second Amendment
    against the States would require judges to face “complex
    empirically based questions,” such as a gun regulation’s
    impact on murder rates, which are better left to legislatures.
    
    Id.
     at 922–26 (Breyer, J., dissenting). The Court answered
    that Justice Breyer called for, see Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 689
     (Breyer, J.,
    dissenting).
    The majority also relies on Heller’s passing reference to D.C.’s
    handgun ban failing “under any standard of scrutiny” as license to
    engage in the judicial-interest balancing adopted by this court. Maj. Op.
    25. But that misreads the statement. As then-Judge Kavanaugh noted,
    “that [reference] was more of a gilding-the-lily observation about the
    extreme nature of D.C.’s law—and appears to have been a pointed
    comment that the dissenters should have found D.C.’s law
    unconstitutional even under their own suggested balancing approach—
    than a statement that courts may or should apply strict or intermediate
    scrutiny in Second Amendment cases.” Heller v. District of Columbia
    (“Heller II”), 
    670 F.3d 1244
    , 1277–78 (D.C. Cir. 2011) (Kavanaugh, J.,
    dissenting).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      115
    that Justice Breyer was “incorrect that incorporation will
    require judges to assess the costs and benefits of firearms
    restrictions and thus to make difficult empirical judgments
    in an area in which they lack expertise.” 
    Id.
     at 790–91. On
    the contrary, rejecting any “interest-balancing test” for the
    Second Amendment right obviates the courts from making
    those “difficult empirical judgments.” 
    Id.
     (citing Heller,
    
    554 U.S. at 634
    ).
    Most recently, Caetano demonstrated the Court’s
    application of Heller and, unsurprisingly, that case did not
    involve interest balancing. See 
    577 U.S. 411
    . Caetano
    viewed Heller as announcing rules for determining the
    constitutionality of firearms regulations and applied these
    rules to a state ban on stun guns. See 577 U.S. at 411. There,
    the Court drew three takeaways from Heller: (1) the Second
    Amendment protects arms “not in existence at the time of
    the founding”; (2) a weapon not “in common use at the time
    of the Second Amendment’s enactment” does not render it
    “unusual”; and (3) the Second Amendment protects more
    than “only those weapons useful in warfare.” Id. at 411–12
    (simplified). The Court held the state court’s reasoning
    contradicted Heller’s “clear statement[s]” and vacated its
    decision. Id. at 412. Notably, Caetano did not adopt a tier
    of scrutiny or otherwise engage in interest balancing. It
    certainly did not ask whether the stun gun ban was a
    “reasonable fit” with the state’s public safety objective.
    That the Court has uniformly rejected “interest
    balancing” when it comes to the Second Amendment is
    nothing new. Then-Judge Kavanaugh understood as much
    shortly after Heller and McDonald were decided. As he
    explained, the Supreme Court “set forth fairly precise
    guidance to govern” Second Amendment challenges. Heller
    II, 
    670 F.3d at 1271
     (Kavanaugh, J., dissenting). “Heller and
    116                 DUNCAN V. BONTA
    McDonald,” he said, “leave little doubt that courts are to
    assess gun bans and regulations based on text, history, and
    tradition, not by a balancing test such as strict or
    intermediate scrutiny.”    
    Id.
        More recently, Justice
    Kavanaugh has articulated his “concern that some federal
    and state courts may not be properly applying Heller and
    McDonald.” N.Y. State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n v. City of New
    York, 
    140 S. Ct. 1525
    , 1527 (2020) (Kavanaugh, J.,
    concurring).
    Other justices have similarly questioned the continued
    use of tiers of scrutiny by lower courts. Justice Thomas, for
    instance, observed that many courts of appeals “have
    resisted [the Court’s] decisions in Heller and McDonald”
    and sought to “minimize [Heller’s] framework.” Rogers v.
    Grewal, 
    140 S. Ct. 1865
    , 1866 (2020) (Thomas, J.,
    dissenting from the denial of certiorari) (simplified). He
    emphasized that Heller “explicitly rejected the invitation to
    evaluate Second Amendment challenges under an ‘interest-
    balancing inquiry, with the interests protected by the Second
    Amendment on one side and the governmental public-safety
    concerns on the other.’” Id. at 1867 (simplified).
    Rogers wasn’t the first time that Justice Thomas sounded
    the alarm on this issue. In Friedman v. City of Highland
    Park, Justice Thomas reiterated that the Court “stressed that
    the very enumeration of the right takes out of the hands of
    government—even the Third Branch of Government—the
    power to decide on a case-by-case basis whether the right is
    really worth insisting upon.” 
    136 S. Ct. 447
    , 448 (2015)
    (Thomas, J., dissenting from denial of certiorari)
    (simplified); see also Silvester v. Becerra, 
    138 S. Ct. 945
    ,
    948 (2018) (Thomas, J., dissenting from the denial of
    certiorari) (explaining that Heller rejected “weigh[ing] a
    law’s burdens on Second Amendment rights against the
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                             117
    governmental interests it promotes”); Jackson v. City &
    Cnty. of San Francisco, 
    135 S. Ct. 2799
    , 2802 (2015)
    (Thomas, J., dissenting from the denial of certiorari).
    Moreover, Justice Thomas has criticized tiers-of-scrutiny
    jurisprudence in general as an atextual and ahistorical
    reading of the Constitution. See Whole Woman’s Health v.
    Hellerstedt, 
    136 S. Ct. 2292
    , 2327–28 (2016) (Thomas, J.,
    dissenting) (characterizing the use of “made-up tests” to
    “displace longstanding national traditions as the primary
    determinant of what the Constitution means” as illegitimate
    (simplified).) 11
    Justices Alito and Gorsuch have also taken issue with
    how lower courts are applying Heller. After determining
    that the lower court improperly upheld a New York City
    handgun ordinance under “heightened scrutiny,” Justice
    Alito, joined by Justice Gorsuch, commented, “[w]e are told
    that the mode of review in this case is representative of the
    way Heller has been treated in the lower courts. If that is
    true, there is cause for concern.” N.Y. State Rifle & Pistol
    Ass’n, 140 S. Ct. at 1544 (Alito, J., dissenting).
    A chorus of circuit judges from across the country has
    also rejected the tiers-of-scrutiny approach adopted by this
    11
    For most of this country’s history, judges viewed their role not as
    “weighing or accommodating competing public and private interests,”
    but instead employing “boundary-defining techniques” which made their
    job a more “objective, quasi-scientific one.” Richard Fallon, Strict
    Judicial Scrutiny, 
    54 UCLA L. Rev. 1267
    , 1274, 1285–86 (2007)
    (simplified). As Judge Berzon’s concurrence demonstrates, the tiers-of-
    scrutiny approach is of recent vintage. Berzon Concurrence 90–91.
    Judge Berzon, thus, confirms Professor Fallon’s view that strict scrutiny
    (and its rational-basis and intermediate-scrutiny cousins) have no
    “foundation in the Constitution’s original understanding.” Fallon, supra,
    at 1268.
    118                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    and other courts. See, e.g., Mai, 974 F.3d at 1083 (Collins,
    J., dissenting from the denial of reh’g en banc); id. at 1097
    (VanDyke, J., dissenting from the denial of reh’g en banc);
    Ass’n of N.J. Rifle & Pistol Clubs v. Att’y Gen. N.J., 
    910 F.3d 106
    , 127 (3d Cir. 2018) (Bibas, J. dissenting); Mance v.
    Sessions, 
    896 F.3d 390
    , 394 (5th Cir. 2018) (Elrod, J., joined
    by Jones, Smith, Willett, Ho, Duncan, and Engelhardt, JJ.,
    dissenting from the denial of reh’g en banc); Tyler v.
    Hillsdale Cnty. Sheriff’s Dep’t, 
    837 F.3d 678
    , 702 (6th Cir.
    2016) (Batchelder, J., concurring); id. at 710 (Sutton, J.,
    concurring).
    We join this chorus. We cannot “square the type of
    means-ends weighing of a government regulation inherent in
    the tiers-of-scrutiny analysis with Heller’s directive that a
    core constitutional protection should not be subjected to a
    freestanding interest-balancing approach.” Mai, 974 F.3d
    at 1086–87 (Bumatay, J., dissenting from the denial of reh’g
    en banc) (simplified)). That judges are not empowered to
    recalibrate the rights owed to the people has been stated
    again and again:
    Our duty as unelected and unaccountable
    judges is to defer to the view of the people
    who ratified the Second Amendment, which
    is itself the “very product of an interest
    balancing by the people.” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 635
    . By ignoring the balance already
    struck by the people, and instead subjecting
    enumerated rights, like the Second
    Amendment, to our own judicial balancing,
    “we do violence to the [constitutional]
    design.” Crawford v. Washington, 
    541 U.S. 36
    , 67–68 (2004).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                               119
    Id. at 1087. After all, “[t]he People, through ratification,
    have already weighed the policy tradeoffs that constitutional
    rights entail.” Luis v. United States, 
    136 S. Ct. 1083
    , 1101
    (2016) (Thomas, J., concurring).
    Despite these warnings, our court charges ahead in
    applying the two-step-to-intermediate-scrutiny approach.
    Application of “intermediate scrutiny” to the large-capacity
    magazine ban, however, engages in exactly the sort of “costs
    and benefits” analysis the Court said we should not be doing.
    McDonald, 
    561 U.S. at
    790–91. This approach, moreover,
    is nothing more than a judicial sleight-of-hand, allowing
    courts to feign respect to the right to keep and bear arms
    while “rarely ever actually using it to strike down a law.” 12
    Intermediate scrutiny, we fear, is just window dressing for
    judicial policymaking. Favored policies may be easily
    supported by cherry-picked data under the tier’s black box
    regime. But whether we personally agree with California’s
    firearms regulations, that is no excuse to disregard the
    Court’s instructions and develop a balancing test for a
    12
    Allen Rostron, Justice Breyer’s Triumph in the Third Battle over
    the Second Amendment, 
    80 Geo. Wash. L. Rev. 703
    , 757 (2012)
    (explaining that lower courts consistently apply intermediate scrutiny in
    line with Justice Breyer’s dissent despite Heller’s rejection of that
    approach). Even if we were to ignore Heller and continue to follow our
    own misguided precedent, the majority still gets it wrong. As Judge Lee
    ably pointed out, strict scrutiny should apply because § 32310’s
    categorical ban substantially burdens “the core right of law-abiding
    citizens to defend hearth and home.” Duncan v. Becerra, 
    970 F.3d 1133
    ,
    1152 (9th Cir. 2020), reh’g en banc granted, opinion vacated, 
    988 F.3d 1209
     (9th Cir. 2021). As the Supreme Court noted, laws that impinge on
    a “fundamental right explicitly . . . protected by the constitution” require
    “strict judicial scrutiny.” San Antonio Indep. Sch. Dist. v. Rodriguez,
    
    411 U.S. 1
    , 17 (1973); Clark v. Jeter, 
    486 U.S. 456
    , 461 (1988)
    (“[C]lassifications affecting fundamental rights are given the most
    exacting scrutiny.” (simplified)).
    120                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    fundamental right. Our job is not to give effect to our own
    will, but instead to “the will of the law”—in this case, the
    Constitution. Osborn v. Bank of U.S., 
    22 U.S. 738
    , 866
    (1824) (Marshall, C.J.).
    Of course, this would not be the first time that our court
    struggled mightily to understand the Supreme Court’s
    directions. See, e.g., Tandon v. Newsom, 
    141 S. Ct. 1294
    ,
    1297 (2021) (per curiam) (“This is the fifth time the Court
    has summarily rejected the Ninth Circuit’s analysis of
    California’s COVID restrictions on religious exercise.”).
    We have done so again here, and it is a shame.
    2. The Supreme Court Looks to Text, History,
    and Tradition
    Contrary to the majority’s reiteration of a tiers-of-
    scrutiny, sliding scale approach, Heller commands that we
    interpret the scope of the Second Amendment right in light
    of its text, history, and tradition.         That’s because
    constitutional rights “are enshrined with the scope they were
    understood to have when the people adopted them, whether
    or not future legislatures or (yes) even future judges think
    that scope too broad.” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    634–35.
    Heller announced a straightforward analytical
    framework that we are not free to ignore: the Second
    Amendment encompasses the “right of law-abiding,
    responsible citizens to use arms in defense of hearth and
    home.” 
    Id. at 635
    . As a “prima facie” matter, that right
    extends to “all instruments that constitute bearable arms,
    even those that were not in existence at the time of the
    founding.” 
    Id. at 582
    . Any regulation that infringes on the
    exercise of this right implicates conduct protected by the
    Second Amendment.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       121
    But because the Second Amendment right is “not
    unlimited,” 
    id. at 595
    , regulations that are “historical[ly]
    justifi[ed]” do not violate the right, 
    id. at 635
    . Primarily, the
    “Second Amendment does not protect those weapons not
    typically possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful
    purposes,” such as M-16s and short-barreled shotguns. 
    Id. at 625
    . In making this inquiry, we look to the “historical
    tradition,” which has excluded “dangerous and unusual”
    weapons from the Amendment’s protection. 
    Id. at 627
    . In
    the same way, the Amendment does protect weapons in
    “common us[age].” 
    Id.
     Finally, the Second Amendment
    does not disturb “longstanding prohibitions” on the sale,
    possession, or use of guns with sufficient historical
    antecedents. 
    Id.
     at 626–27.
    Rather than rely on our own sense of what is the right
    balance of freedom and government restraint, then, the Court
    instructs lower courts to follow the meaning of the People’s
    law as understood at the time it was enacted. Such an
    approach is more determinate and “much less subjective”
    because “it depends upon a body of evidence susceptible of
    reasoned analysis rather than a variety of vague ethico-
    political First Principles whose combined conclusion can be
    found to point in any direction the judges favor.” McDonald,
    
    561 U.S. at 804
     (Scalia, J., concurring).
    Far from obscuring the decision-making process, as
    Judge Berzon’s concurrence contends, applying the text,
    history, and tradition approach forces judges to put their
    cards on the table. It sets out the ground rules under which
    constitutional decision-making is made. It ensures that only
    proper sources, datapoints, and considerations are used to
    determine the scope of the Second Amendment right.
    Adopting this approach necessarily constrains judges to the
    text and the historical record rather than to their own policy
    122                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    preferences. To be sure, no mode of judicial decision-
    making is perfect or can eliminate discretionary calls, but
    relying on a historical methodology provides discernible
    rules that “hedge[]” discretion and expose the “misuse of
    these rules by a crafty or willful judge” as “an abuse of
    power.” 13 Even if the method requires complicated
    historical research or interpretative choices, the text, history,
    and tradition approach offers a common ground to criticize
    a judge who glosses over the text or misreads history or
    tradition. 14 Otherwise, we are left with the majority’s
    approach which all too often allows judges to simply pick
    the policies they like with no clear guardrails.
    Moreover, contrary to Judge Berzon’s portrayal, the fact
    that “[w]ords do not have inherent meaning” is a feature—
    not a bug—of Heller’s text-based approach. See Berzon
    Concurrence 61. We agree that the meaning of words may
    evolve over time. But enumerated rights do not. The People
    ratified the Second Amendment in 1791 to protect an
    enduring right—not one subject to the whims of future
    judges or the evolution of the words used to articulate the
    right. 15 This view is not radical. Chief Justice Marshall
    13
    Frank H. Easterbrook, Foreword to Antonin Scalia and Bryan A.
    Garner, Reading Law at xxiii (2012).
    14
    See generally William Baude, Originalism as a Constraint on
    Judges, 
    84 U. Chi. L. Rev. 2213
     (2018).
    15
    See Antonin Scalia, Originalism: The Lesser Evil, 
    57 U. Cin. L. Rev. 849
    , 862 (1989) (“The purpose of constitutional guarantees . . . is
    precisely to prevent the law from reflecting certain changes in original
    values that the society adopting the Constitution thinks fundamentally
    undesirable.”); see also William H. Rehnquist, The Notion of a Living
    Constitution, 54 Tex. L. Rev 693, 697 (1976) (“Once we have abandoned
    the idea that the authority of the courts to declare laws unconstitutional
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                             123
    expressed a similar sentiment in 1827: The Constitution’s
    words, he said, “are to be understood in that sense in which
    they are generally used by those for whom the instrument
    was intended; that its provisions are neither to be restricted
    into insignificance, nor extended to objects not
    comprehended in them.” Ogden v. Saunders, 
    25 U.S. 213
    ,
    332 (1827) (Marshall, C.J., dissenting).
    Without hewing to the meaning of the right as
    understood at the time of enactment, we alter the rights
    chosen by the People and risk injecting our own policy
    judgments into the right’s meaning. As for Judge Berzon’s
    concern that the meaning of constitutional text may be “lost
    to the passage of time,” Berzon Concurrence 61, we have
    been interpreting language going back millennia. As Justice
    Gorsuch observed, “[j]ust ask any English professor who
    teaches Shakespeare or Beowulf.” Neil M. Gorsuch, A
    Republic, If You Can Keep It 112 (2020). Simply put,
    original meaning gives enduring meaning to the Constitution
    and preserves our rights as they were enshrined at the time
    of adoption.
    The criticisms of history and tradition playing a role in
    constitutional interpretation fall equally flat. See Berzon
    Concurrence 62–75. As Heller shows, by looking to
    tradition and history, we see how constitutional text came to
    be and how the People closest to its ratification understood
    is somehow tied to the language of the Constitution that the people
    adopted, a judiciary exercising the power of judicial review appears in a
    quite different light. Judges then are no longer the keepers of the
    covenant; instead they are a small group of fortunately situated people
    with a roving commission to second-guess Congress [and] state
    legislatures . . . concerning what is best for the country.”).
    124                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    and practiced the right. 16 And by examining a firearm’s
    history of common usage, we come to see the fundamental
    nature of the right and illuminate how a modern
    governmental regulation may infringe on a longstanding
    protection. Tradition and history may also allow us to take
    interpretive options off the table: they might say that two
    possible “answers” to a legal question are permissible, which
    “is worth something” because courts should not “impose a
    third possibility.” 17 So, tradition and history inform the
    meaning of constitutional rights in ways that no tier-of-
    scrutiny can.
    For sure, this approach can be difficult. Some of Judge
    Berzon’s process critiques are not all wrong. See Berzon
    Concurrence 57–58 (noting that the “volume of available
    historical evidence . . . will vary enormously and may often
    be either vast or quite sparse”). Looking to text, history, and
    tradition to uncover meaning takes time and careful
    analysis. 18 And interpreting the meaning of documents and
    events from long-ago is much harder than simply consulting
    16
    See Lawrence B. Solum, The Fixation Thesis: The Role of
    Historical Fact in Original Meaning, 
    91 Notre Dame L. Rev. 1
    , 28
    (2015) (“[T]he original public meaning was, in part, determined by the
    public context of constitutional communication. Thus, the public at large
    would have been aware of (or had access to) the basic history of the
    Constitution.).
    17
    Ilan Wurman, Law Historians’ Fallacies, 
    91 N.D. L. Rev. 161
    ,
    171 (2015).
    18
    See, e.g., Gary Lawson & Guy Seidman, Originalism as a Legal
    Enterprise, 
    23 Const. Comment. 47
    , 74–75 (2006); William Baude &
    Jud Campbell, Early American Constitutional History: A Source Guide
    (2021), https://ssrn.com/abstract=2718777 (describing the wide variety
    of available originalist sources such as ratification debates, dictionaries,
    treatises, and linguistic corpora).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                               125
    our own policy views. But it is the high price our
    Constitution demands from judges who swear an oath to
    apply it faithfully. Indeed, the same criticisms leveled by
    Judge Berzon apply with greater force to the tiers-of-scrutiny
    approach because there is no historical backdrop to cabin a
    judge’s discretion. While judges may not be historians,
    neither are we economists, statisticians, criminologists,
    psychologists, doctors, or actuarialists. 19 But that is exactly
    the type of expertise judges use to render judgment under the
    majority’s approach. See, e.g., Mai, 952 F.3d at 1118–20
    (using Swedish statistical studies to justify the deprivation of
    the Second Amendment right of a formerly mentally ill
    citizen). While the text, history and tradition methodology
    may have shortcomings, it is better than the majority’s
    approach. 20 Their judicial black box leaves critics grasping
    to understand the court’s method for balancing policy
    interests. At the very least, text, history, and tradition has
    nothing to hide.
    B. Under Heller, Large-Capacity Magazine Bans
    Are Unconstitutional
    With a firm understanding of the approach directed by
    Heller, we turn to California’s large-capacity ban.
    19
    See William Baude & Stephen E. Sachs, Originalism and the Law
    of the Past, 37 Law and Hist. Rev. 809, 816 (2019) (“[L]egal uncertainty
    is hardly restricted to matters of history. Judges and juries frequently face
    questions that might stump expert economists or toxicologists.”).
    20
    See Scalia, supra, at 862–63.
    126                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    1. Large-capacity magazines are “arms” under
    the Second Amendment.
    To begin, when assessing a ban on a category of
    weapons, we look to whether the regulation infringes on the
    use of instruments that constitute “bearable arms” under the
    Second Amendment. Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 582
    . The Court
    tells us that the term “bearable arms” includes any
    “[w]eapons of offence” or “thing that a man wears for his
    defence, or takes into his hands,” that is “carr[ied] . . . for the
    purpose of offensive or defensive action.” 
    Id. at 581, 584
    (simplified). It doesn’t matter if the “arm” was “not in
    existence at the time of the founding.” See 
    id. at 582
    .
    At issue here are magazines capable of carrying more
    than ten rounds. A “magazine” is a firearm compartment
    that stores ammunition and feeds it into the firearm’s
    chamber. 21 The magazines are integral to the operation of
    firearms. As a result, many popular firearms would be
    practically inoperable without magazines.
    That the law bans magazines rather than the guns
    themselves does not alter the Second Amendment inquiry.
    Constitutional rights “implicitly protect those closely related
    acts necessary to their exercise.” Luis, 
    136 S. Ct. at 1097
    (Thomas, J., concurring). “No axiom is more clearly
    established in law, or in reason, than that wherever the end
    is required, the means are authorized[.]” The Federalist No.
    44, at 282 (James Madison) (Charles R. Kesler ed., 2003).
    Without protection of the components that render a firearm
    operable, the Second Amendment would be meaningless.
    21
    See Magazine, Oxford English Dictionary Online,
    https://www.oed.com/view/Entry/112144; Magazine, Merriam-Webster
    Online, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/magazine.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                              127
    See Luis, 
    136 S. Ct. at 1098
     (Thomas, J., concurring); see
    also Fyock v. Sunnyvale, 
    779 F.3d 991
    , 998 (9th Cir. 2015)
    (recognizing the “right to possess the magazines necessary
    to render . . . firearms operable”).
    Because California’s law prohibits the possession of
    large-capacity magazines, it is within the scope of the
    Second Amendment’s protection. 22
    2. Large-capacity magazines are typically
    possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful
    purposes.
    The next step in the Court’s analysis requires that we
    determine whether large-capacity magazines are “typically
    possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes.”
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 625
    . As we stated, this inquiry examines
    the historical record to determine whether the weapons are
    “dangerous and unusual,” on the one hand, or whether they
    are in “common use,” on the other. 
    Id. at 627
     (simplified). 23
    22
    California asserts that the Second Amendment doesn’t extend to
    weapons “most useful in military service.” Heller did not establish such
    an exception. In fact, Heller said the opposite: the Amendment’s
    prefatory clause reference to the “conception of the militia” means that
    the right protects “the sorts of lawful weapons that [citizens] possessed
    at home [to bring] to militia duty.” 
    554 U.S. at 627
    . Justice Alito
    squarely dispensed with California’s argument in Caetano, stating that
    the Court has “recognized that militia members traditionally reported for
    duty carrying the sorts of lawful weapons that they possessed at home,
    and that the Second Amendment therefore protects such weapons as a
    class, regardless of any particular weapon’s suitability for military use.”
    577 U.S. at 419 (Alito, J., concurring) (simplified).
    23
    We believe this inquiry is one and the same. Heller mentions both
    in the same breath. Referring to the Court’s prior precedent that “the
    128                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    First, a word about “common usage.” We start with the
    well-established premise that the Constitution protects
    enduring principles: “The meaning of the Constitution is
    fixed when it is adopted, and it is not different at any
    subsequent time when a court has occasion to pass upon it.”
    W. Coast Hotel Co. v. Parrish, 
    300 U.S. 379
    , 404 (1937).
    Thus, absent amendment, “the relevant [constitutional]
    principles must be faithfully applied not only to
    circumstances as they existed in 1787, 1791, and 1868, for
    example, but also to modern situations that were unknown
    to the Constitution’s Framers.” Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at 1275
    (Kavanaugh, J., dissenting).
    Here, we look to the Second Amendment’s text for its
    enduring meaning. Its prefatory clause reads: “A well
    regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free
    State[.]” U.S. Const. amend. II. The Court has told us that
    this prefatory clause “fits perfectly” with the Amendment’s
    operative clause’s individual right to keep and bear arms:
    “the way tyrants had eliminated a militia consisting of all the
    sorts of weapons protected were those ‘in common use at the time,’” the
    Court noted that “that limitation is fairly supported by the historical
    tradition of prohibiting the carrying of ‘dangerous and unusual
    weapons.’” 
    554 U.S. at
    627 (citing United States v. Miller, 
    307 U.S. 174
    ,
    179–80 (1939)). As then-Judge Kavanaugh recognized, Heller “said that
    ‘dangerous and unusual weapons’ are equivalent to those weapons not
    ‘in common use.’” Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at 1272
     (Kavanaugh, J.,
    dissenting) (simplified); see also United States v. Fincher, 
    538 F.3d 868
    ,
    874 (8th Cir. 2008) (“Machine guns are not in common use by law-
    abiding citizens for lawful purposes and therefore fall within the
    category of dangerous and unusual weapons that the government can
    prohibit for individual use.”); Wilson v. Cnty. of Cook, 
    968 N.E.2d 641
    ,
    655 (Ill. 2012) (“Heller explicitly recognized a historical and long-
    standing tradition of firearms regulations prohibiting a category of
    ‘dangerous and unusual weapons’ that are ‘not typically possessed by
    law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes.’”).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      129
    able-bodied men was not by banning the militia but simply
    by taking away the people’s arms, enabling a select militia
    or standing army to suppress political opponents.” Heller,
    
    554 U.S. at 598
    . Thus, the prefatory clause “announces the
    purpose for which the right was codified: to prevent
    elimination of the militia.” 
    Id. at 599
    .
    Understanding this background informs the type of
    weapons protected by the Second Amendment. As the Court
    wrote:
    In all the colonies, as in England, the militia
    system was based on the principle of the
    assize of arms. This implied the general
    obligation of all adult male inhabitants to
    possess arms, and, with certain exceptions, to
    cooperate in the work of defence. The
    possession of arms also implied the
    possession of ammunition, and the
    authorities paid quite as much attention to the
    latter as to the former.
    Miller, 
    307 U.S. at
    179–80 (simplified). The militia system
    then created a central duty: “ordinarily when called for
    [militia] service [able-bodied] men were expected to appear
    bearing arms supplied by themselves and of the kind in
    common use at the time.” 
    Id. at 179
    . Thus, the lifeblood of
    militia service was citizens armed with weapons typically
    possessed at home for lawful purposes. As a result, the
    Second Amendment protects such weapons as a class. See
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 627
    .
    So, the Second Amendment protects the type of bearable
    weapons commonly used by citizens and at the ready for
    130                       DUNCAN V. BONTA
    militia service—whether it be in 1791 or today. 24 What
    remains is an inquiry that is simultaneously historical and
    contemporary. The historical inquiry is relevant because we
    “reason by analogy from history and tradition” when
    interpreting the Constitution. Ass’n of N.J. Rifle & Pistol
    Clubs v. Att’y Gen. N.J., 
    974 F.3d 237
    , 257 (3d Cir. 2020)
    (Matey, J., dissenting) (simplified).         The Second
    Amendment right thus extends to “modern-day equivalents”
    of arms protected at the Founding. See Parker v. District of
    Columbia, 
    478 F.3d 370
    , 398 (D.C. Cir. 2007) (“[J]ust as the
    First Amendment free speech clause covers modern
    communication devices unknown to the founding
    generation, e.g., radio and television, and the Fourth
    Amendment protects telephonic conversation from a
    ‘search,’ the Second Amendment protects the possession of
    the modern-day equivalents of the colonial pistol.”), aff’d
    sub nom., Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    . For this reason, even new
    or relatively unpopular firearms today might enjoy the
    Second Amendment’s protection if they are “modern-day
    equivalents” of firearms that have been commonly owned
    for lawful purposes. Of course, the protection extends
    equally to weapons not in common use as a historical matter,
    so long as they are “commonly possessed by law-abiding
    citizens for lawful purposes today.” Caetano, 577 U.S.
    at 420 (Alito, J., concurring).
    Some courts have reviewed that common usage
    requirement as being “an objective and largely statistical
    24
    It is no matter that citizens don’t typically serve in militias today,
    or that the weapons protected by the Second Amendment would be
    comparatively ineffective in modern warfare. As Heller explained, “the
    fact that modern developments have limited the degree of fit between the
    prefatory clause and the protected right cannot change our interpretation
    of the right.” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    627–28.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      131
    inquiry.” N.Y. State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n v. Cuomo, 
    804 F.3d 242
    , 256 (2d Cir. 2015). For example, Justice Alito noted
    the quantity of stun guns (200,000) in circulation as proof
    that they’re commonly owned for lawful purposes. Caetano,
    577 U.S. at 420 (Alito, J., concurring). But a narrow focus
    on numbers may not capture all of what it means to be a
    weapon “typically possessed by law-abiding citizens for
    lawful purposes.” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 625
    . As Judge Lee
    noted, “pure statistical inquiry may hide as much as it
    reveals.” Duncan, 970 F.3d at 1147. A straight quantitative
    inquiry could create line-drawing problems and lead to
    bizarre results—such as the exclusion of a protectable arm
    because it is not widely possessed “by virtue of an
    unchallenged, unconstitutional regulation.” Id.; see also
    Friedman v. City of Highland Park, 
    784 F.3d 406
    , 409 (7th
    Cir. 2015) (“Yet it would be absurd to say that the reason
    why a particular weapon can be banned is that there is a
    statute banning it, so that it isn’t commonly used. A law’s
    existence can’t be the source of its own constitutional
    validity.”). Indeed, notably absent from Heller is any
    analysis of the number of handguns in circulation or the
    proportion of owned firearms that were handguns. Heller
    instead focused on the purpose for which the firearms are
    owned and used. See 
    554 U.S. at 629
     (“It is enough to note,
    as we have observed, that the American people have
    considered the handgun to be the quintessential self-defense
    weapon.”). Thus, in addition to statistical analysis, some
    courts also look to “broad patterns of use and the subjective
    motives of gun owners.” N.Y. State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n,
    804 F.3d at 256. We need not resolve all these questions
    today, since large-capacity magazines, as we show below,
    are “in common use” today under either rubric.
    132                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    a. Large-capacity magazines enjoy a long
    historical pedigree.
    Looking at the historical record, large-capacity
    magazines are clear modern-day equivalents of arms in
    common use by the incorporation of the Second Amendment
    and are, thus, entitled to constitutional protection. As Judge
    Lee concluded: “Firearms or magazines holding more than
    ten rounds have been in existence—and owned by American
    citizens—for centuries. Firearms with greater than ten round
    capacities existed even before our nation’s founding, and the
    common use of [large-capacity magazines] for self-defense
    is apparent in our shared national history.” Duncan,
    970 F.3d at 1147; see also David B. Kopel, The History of
    Firearm Magazines and Magazine Prohibitions, 
    78 Alb. L. Rev. 849
    , 851 (2015) (“[I]n terms of large-scale commercial
    success, rifle magazines of more than ten rounds had become
    popular by the time the Fourteenth Amendment was being
    ratified.”).
    Rather than re-tell the long history of large-capacity
    magazines in this country, we offer some highlights:
    •     The first known firearm capable of firing more than ten
    rounds without reloading was a 16-shooter invented in
    1580.
    •   The earliest record of a repeating firearm in America
    noted that it fired more than ten rounds: In 1722, Samuel
    Niles wrote of Indians being entertained by a firearm that
    “though loaded but once, . . . was discharged eleven
    times following, with bullets, in the space of two
    minutes.” Harold L. Peterson, Arms and Armor in
    Colonial America 1526–1783, 215 (2000).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      133
    •   At the Founding, the state-of the-art firearm was the
    Girandoni air rifle with a 22-shot magazine capacity.
    •   In 1777, Joseph Belton demonstrated a 16-shot repeating
    rifle before the Continental Congress, seeking approval
    for its manufacture. Robert Held, The Belton Systems,
    1758 & 1784–86: America’s First Repeating Firearms 37
    (1986).
    •   By the 1830s, “Pepperbox” pistols had been introduced
    to the American public and became commercially
    successful. Depending on the model, the Pepperbox
    could fire 5, 6, 12, 18, or 24 rounds without reloading.
    •   It took several years for Samuel Colt’s revolvers (also
    invented in the 1830s) to surpass the Pepperbox pistol in
    the marketplace.
    •   From the 1830s to the 1850s, several more rifles were
    invented with large ammunition capacities, ranging from
    12- to 38- shot magazines.
    •   By 1855, Daniel Wesson (of Smith and Wesson fame)
    and Oliver Winchester collaborated to introduce the
    lever action rifle, which contained a 30-round magazine
    that could be emptied in less than one minute. A later
    iteration of this rifle, the 16-round Henry lever action
    rifle, became commercially successful, selling about
    14,000 from 1860 to 1866.
    •   By 1866, the first Winchester rifle, the Model 1866,
    could hold 17 rounds in the magazine and one in the
    chamber, all of which could be fired in nine seconds. All
    told, Winchester made over 170,000 copies of the from
    1866 to 1898. See Norm Flayderman, Flayderman’s
    134                     DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Guide to Antique Firearms and Their Values 268 (6th ed.
    1994).
    •   A few years later, Winchester produced the M1873,
    capable of holding 10 to 11 rounds, of which over
    720,000 copies were made from 1873 to 1919.
    From this history, the clear picture emerges that firearms
    with large-capacity capabilities were widely possessed by
    law-abiding citizens by the time of the Second Amendment’s
    incorporation.     In that way, today’s large-capacity
    magazines are “modern-day equivalents” of these historical
    arms, and are entitled to the Second Amendment’s
    protection.
    b. Magazines with over ten rounds are widely
    used for lawful purposes today.
    It is also uncontested that ammunition magazines that
    hold more than ten rounds enjoy widespread popularity
    today. This is evident from the fact that as many as
    100,000,000 such magazines are currently lawfully owned
    by citizens of this country. It’s also apparent from the fact
    that those magazines are a standard component on many of
    the nation’s most popular firearms, such as the Glock pistol,
    which comes with a magazine that holds 15 to 17 rounds. 25
    25
    We can go on and on with examples. Since 1964, Ruger has sold
    six million copies of its 10/22 rifles, which is manufactured with 10-
    round, 15-round, and 25-round magazines. More than five million AR-
    15 rifles have been sold, typically with 30-round magazines. The
    commonality of large-capacity magazines is well accepted by other
    courts. See, e.g., Heller II, 
    670 F.3d at 1261
     (“We think it clear enough
    in the record that semi-automatic rifles and magazines holding more than
    ten rounds are indeed in ‘common use,’ as the plaintiffs contend”
    because “fully 18 percent of all firearms owned by civilians in 1994 were
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                             135
    They are lawful in at least 41 states and under Federal law.
    Indeed, large-capacity magazines account for half of all
    magazines owned in the United States today. Thus, the
    record in this case shows that large-capacity magazines are
    in common use for lawful purposes today, entitling them to
    Second Amendment protection.
    Not only are they ubiquitous, the large-capacity
    magazines are used for lawful purposes, like home defense.
    Millions of semiautomatic pistols, the “quintessential self-
    defense weapon” for the American people, Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 629
    , come standard with magazines carrying over ten
    rounds. Many citizens rely on a single, large-capacity
    magazine to respond to an unexpected attack. As one
    firearms expert put it: firearms equipped with a magazine
    capable of holding more than ten rounds are “more effective
    at incapacitating a deadly threat and, under some
    circumstances, may be necessary to do so.” This is why
    many Americans choose to advantage themselves by
    possessing a firearm equipped with a large-capacity
    magazine and why the ownership of those magazines is
    protected by the Second Amendment.
    California does not refute any of this. 26 Indeed, courts
    throughout the country agree that large-capacity magazines
    equipped with magazines holding more than ten rounds, and
    approximately 4.7 million more such magazines were imported into the
    United States between 1995 and 2000.”).
    26
    Instead, California points to data suggesting that people using
    firearms in self-defense fire only “2.2 shots on average.” On this basis,
    California argues that the banned magazines are not useful for self-
    defense. This is a non-sequitur. That a citizen did not expend the full
    magazine does not mean that the magazine was not useful for self-
    defense purposes. It is also immaterial that plaintiffs have not shown
    136                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    are commonly used for lawful purposes. See Ass’n of N.J.
    Rifle & Pistol Clubs, 910 F.3d at 116–17 (“The record shows
    that millions of magazines are owned, often come factory
    standard with semi-automatic weapons, are typically
    possessed by law-abiding citizens for hunting, pest-control,
    and occasionally self-defense[.]” (simplified)); N.Y. State
    Rifle & Pistol Ass’n, 804 F.3d at 255 (“[S]tatistics suggest
    that about 25 million large-capacity magazines were
    available in 1995, . . . and nearly 50 million such
    magazines—or nearly two large-capacity magazines for
    each gun capable of accepting one—were approved for
    import by 2000.). Even our court has begrudgingly admitted
    as much. See Fyock, 779 F.3d at 998 (“[W]e cannot say that
    the district court abused its discretion by inferring from the
    evidence of record that, at a minimum, [large-capacity]
    magazines are in common use. And, to the extent that certain
    firearms capable of use with a magazine—e.g., certain
    semiautomatic handguns—are commonly possessed by law-
    abiding citizens for lawful purposes, our case law supports
    the conclusion that there must also be some corollary, albeit
    not unfettered, right to possess the magazines necessary to
    render those firearms operable.”).
    In sum, firearms with magazines capable of firing more
    than ten rounds are commonplace in America today. And
    they are widely possessed for the purpose of self-defense,
    the very core of the Second Amendment. Accordingly, an
    overwhelming majority of citizens who own and use large-
    capacity magazines do so for lawful purposes. “Under our
    when a large-capacity magazine was necessary to fend off attackers.
    That is not the test. Heller only looks to the purpose of the firearm’s
    ownership—not that it is effectively used or absolutely necessary for that
    purpose. In fact, we are hopeful that most law-abiding citizens never
    have to use their firearms in self-defense.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      137
    precedents, that is all that is needed for citizens to have a
    right under the Second Amendment to keep such weapons.”
    Friedman, 
    136 S. Ct. at 449
     (Thomas, J., joined by Scalia,
    J., dissenting from denial of certiorari) (emphasis added).
    So, unless subject to “longstanding prohibition,” they are
    protected by the Second Amendment.
    3. Bans on large-capacity magazines are not a
    presumptively lawful regulatory measure.
    After completing its analysis, Heller cautioned: “nothing
    in our opinion should be taken to cast doubt on longstanding
    prohibitions on the possession of firearms by felons and the
    mentally ill, or laws forbidding the carrying of firearms in
    sensitive places such as schools and government buildings,
    or laws imposing conditions and qualifications on the
    commercial sale of arms.” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    626–27. The
    Court also noted that its list of “presumptively lawful
    regulatory measures” was not “exhaustive.” See 
    id.
     at 627
    n.26. Thus, it would be wise to ask whether California’s law
    enjoys the endorsement of history. Our task, therefore, is to
    determine “whether the challenged law traces its lineage to
    founding-era or Reconstruction-era regulations,” Duncan,
    970 F.3d at 1150, because “[c]onstitutional rights are
    enshrined with the scope they were understood to have when
    the people adopted them,” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    634–35. As a
    preview, California cannot meet this showing: the magazine
    ban’s earliest analogues only show up in the early twentieth
    century, which doesn’t meet the definition of “longstanding”
    under Heller.
    The Court’s first example of a longstanding and
    presumptively lawful regulatory measure is the
    “prohibition[] o[f] the possession of firearms by felons and
    the mentally ill.” Heller, 
    554 U.S. at 626
    . Prohibiting the
    possession of arms by those found by the state to be
    138                       DUNCAN V. BONTA
    dangerous, like violent criminals, dates to the Founding. 27
    And prohibiting the mentally ill from exercising firearms
    rights also has roots dating to the Founding. See Mai,
    974 F.3d at 1090 (Bumatay, J., dissenting from the denial of
    reh’g en banc).
    Heller next points to laws that forbid “the carrying of
    firearms in sensitive places,” as an example of longstanding
    regulatory measures. 
    554 U.S. at 626
    . Again, this practice
    dates to the Founding: “colonial and early state governments
    routinely exercised their police powers to restrict the time,
    place, and manner in which Americans used their guns.”
    Robert H. Churchill, Gun Regulation, the Police Power, and
    the Right to Keep Arms in Early America: The Legal Context
    27
    See Kanter v. Barr, 
    919 F.3d 437
    , 464 (7th Cir. 2019) (“History
    . . . support[s] the proposition that the state can take the right to bear arms
    away from a category of people that it deems dangerous.”) (Barrett, J.,
    dissenting); C. Kevin Marshall, Why Can’t Martha Stewart Have A
    Gun?, 32 Harv. J.L. & Pub. Pol’y 695, 698 (2009) (“‘[L]ongstanding’
    precedent in America and pre-Founding England suggests that a firearms
    disability can be consistent with the Second Amendment to the extent
    that . . . its basis credibly indicates a present danger that one will misuse
    arms against others and the disability redresses that danger.”); Stephen
    P. Halbrook, What the Framers Intended: A Linguistic Analysis of the
    Right to ‘Bear Arms’, 
    49 Law & Contemp. Probs. 151
    , 161 (1986)
    (“[V]iolent criminals, children, and those of unsound mind may be
    deprived of firearms[.]”); Binderup v. Att’y Gen. United States of Am.,
    
    836 F.3d 336
    , 369 (3d Cir. 2016) (Hardiman, J., concurring in part and
    concurring in the judgments) (“[T]he historical record leads us to
    conclude that the public understanding of the scope of the Second
    Amendment was tethered to the principle that the Constitution permitted
    the dispossession of persons who demonstrated that they would present
    a danger to the public if armed.”). Because such prohibitions—in their
    contemporary form—date only to the early twentieth century, Marshall,
    supra at 695, some (including the majority) have mistakenly concluded
    that any firearm regulation dating to that period must be presumptively
    lawful. See, e.g., Maj. Op. 28–29.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                             139
    of the Second Amendment, 
    25 Law & Hist. Rev. 139
    , 162
    (2007). For example, the Delaware Constitution of 1776
    stated that “no person shall come armed to any” of the state
    elections, so as to “prevent any violence or force being used
    at the said elections.” Del. Const., art. 28 (1776). And the
    multitude of Founding-era laws regulating the times and
    places in which firearms could be used are well documented.
    See Churchill, supra at 161–66.
    The final demonstrative category in Heller is the
    imposition of “conditions and qualifications on the
    commercial sale of arms.” 
    554 U.S. at 627
    . The historical
    lineage of such a broad set is necessarily difficult to trace;
    the more specific the “condition” or “qualification,” the
    more varied the history will be. Cf. Pena v. Lindley,
    
    898 F.3d 969
    , 976 (9th Cir. 2018) (“Our circuit similarly has
    strained to interpret the phrase ‘conditions and qualifications
    on the commercial sale of arms.’”). Still, in analyzing this
    category, our circuit has traced its antecedents to the
    Founding.       We’ve noted that “colonial government
    regulation included some restrictions on the commercial sale
    of firearms.” Teixeira v. Cnty. of Alameda, 
    873 F.3d 670
    ,
    685 (9th Cir. 2017) (en banc). 28
    28
    For example, several colonies “passed laws in the first half of the
    seventeenth century making it a crime to sell, give, or otherwise deliver
    firearms or ammunition to Indians.” Teixeira, 873 F.3d at 685. And, for
    instance, “Connecticut banned the sale of firearms by its residents
    outside the colony.” Id. Connecticut law also required a license to sell
    gunpowder that had been manufactured in the colony outside the colony.
    See An Act for encouraging the Manufactures of Salt Petre and Gun
    Powder, December 1775, reprinted in The Public Records of the Colony
    of Connecticut From May, 1775, to June, 1776 191 (Charles J. Hoadly
    ed., 1890); (“Be it . . . enacted, That no salt petre, nitre or gun-powder
    made and manufactured, or that shall be made and manufactured in this
    140                    DUNCAN V. BONTA
    As mentioned above, a pattern emerges. Heller’s
    examples of longstanding, presumptively lawful regulations
    have historical analogues at least dating to the Founding.
    This makes sense: determining the core of the Second
    Amendment’s protection is, after all, a “historical inquiry
    [that] seeks to determine whether the conduct at issue was
    understood to be within the scope of the right at the time of
    ratification.” United States v. Chester, 
    628 F.3d 673
    , 680
    (4th Cir. 2010).
    That pattern is problematic for California. The first law
    limiting magazine capacity was enacted by Michigan in
    1927, setting an upper limit of 16 rounds. See Act of June 2,
    1927, No. 373, § 3, 1927 Mich. Public Acts 887, 888
    (repealed 1959). Rhode Island passed a similar ban that
    year, prohibiting any firearm that could shoot more than
    12 times without reloading. See Act of Apr. 22, 1927, ch.
    1052, §§ 1, 4, 
    1927 R.I. Acts & Resolves 256
    , 256–57
    (amended 1959). In 1932, the District of Columbia
    prohibited the possession of a firearm that could shoot more
    than 12 rounds without reloading. See Act of July 8, 1932,
    Pub. L. No. 72-275, §§ 1, 8, 
    47 Stat. 650
    , 650, 652. The next
    year, Ohio passed a law requiring a permit to possess any
    firearm with an ammunition capacity over 18 rounds. See
    Act of Apr. 8, 1933, No. 166, sec. 1, §§ 12819-3, -4, 
    1933 Ohio Laws 189
    , 189 (amended 1972). California’s law,
    meanwhile, dates only to 1999.
    Colony, shall be exported out of the same by land or water without the
    licence of the General Assembly or his Honor the Governor and
    Committee of Safety[.]”). Similarly, New Jersey law required that any
    gunpowder be inspected and marked before its sale. An Act for the
    Inspection of Gun-Powder, ch. 6, §1. 1776 N. J. Laws 6. (making it an
    “Offence” for “any Person” to “offer any Gun-Powder for Sale, without
    being previously inspected and marked as in herein after directed”).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                             141
    California does not dispute the historical record—it
    points to the above Prohibition-era laws of Michigan, Rhode
    Island, and Ohio to defend its own ban’s historical pedigree.
    But such laws aren’t nearly old enough to be longstanding.
    Even if, for the sake of argument, we granted that a
    regulation need only date to the Reconstruction era to be
    sufficiently longstanding, California’s large-capacity
    magazine ban still fails. Thus, California’s magazine ban is
    not longstanding or presumptively lawful. 29 See Ass’n of
    N.J. Rifle & Pistol Clubs, 910 F.3d at 116–17 (“[T]here is no
    longstanding history of LCM regulation.”); id. at 117 n.18
    (“LCMs were not regulated until the 1920s, but most of
    those laws were invalidated by the 1970s. The federal LCM
    ban was enacted in 1994, but it expired in 2004.”)
    (simplified).
    Not only is California’s ban not historically
    longstanding, but it also differs in kind from the regulatory
    measures mentioned in Heller. Regulations on possession
    by people dangerous to society, where a firearm may be
    carried, and how firearms may be exchanged, see Heller,
    
    554 U.S. at
    626–27, are about the manner or place of use and
    sale or the condition of the user. California’s ban, on the
    other hand, is much more like a “prohibition on an entire
    class of ‘arms’ that is overwhelmingly chosen by American
    society” for home defense. 
    Id. at 628
    . Also, like the ban in
    29
    Sufficient historical pedigree is only capable of establishing a
    presumption in favor of constitutionality. But that presumption is not
    dispositive. Thus, even if California’s magazine ban dated to a period
    that would plausibly render it longstanding (i.e., the Founding or
    Reconstruction), we would still need to answer whether that presumption
    could be overcome. California’s law effectively outlaws massive swaths
    of firearms chosen by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes like self-
    defense. If a court were forced to answer the question, it’s possible that
    the ban’s history couldn’t save it.
    142                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    Heller, California’s ban extends “to the home, where the
    need for defense of self, family, and property is most acute.”
    
    Id.
    In the end, California fails to point to a single Founding-
    era statute that is even remotely analogous to its magazine
    ban. Ironically, the closest Founding-era analogues to
    ammunition regulations appear to be laws requiring that
    citizens arm themselves with particular arms and a specific
    minimum amount of ammunition. See 
    1784 Mass. Acts 142
    ; 1786 N. Y. Laws 228; 1785 Va. Statutes at Large 12
    (12 Hening c. 1); 
    1 Stat. 271
     (1792) (Militia Act); Herbert
    L. Osgood, The American Colonies in the Seventeenth
    Century 499–500 (1904) (showing that states required
    citizens to equip themselves with adequate firearms and
    sufficient ammunition—varying between twenty and
    twenty-four cartridges at minimum). That does not offer
    historical support for California’s ban; in fact, it runs directly
    counter to California’s position.
    IV.
    California’s experiment bans magazines that are
    commonly owned by millions of law-abiding citizens for
    lawful purposes. These magazines are neither dangerous
    and unusual, nor are they subject to longstanding regulatory
    measures. In ratifying the Second Amendment, the People
    determined that such restrictions are beyond the purview of
    government. Our court reaches the opposite conclusion in
    contravention of the Constitution and Supreme Court
    precedent. In so doing, it once again employs analytical
    tools foreign to the Constitution—grafting terms like
    “intermediate scrutiny,” “alternative channels,” and
    “reasonable fit” that appear nowhere in its text. So yet again,
    we undermine the judicial role and promote ourselves to the
    position of a super-legislature—voting on which
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       143
    fundamental rights protected by the Constitution will be
    honored and which will be dispensed with.
    We respectfully dissent.
    VANDYKE, Circuit Judge, dissenting:
    I largely agree with Judge Bumatay’s excellent dissent.
    And to paraphrase James Madison, if judges were angels,
    nothing further would need be said. But unfortunately,
    however else it might be described, our court’s Second
    Amendment jurisprudence can hardly be labeled angelic.
    Possessed maybe—by a single-minded focus on ensuring
    that any panel opinions actually enforcing the Second
    Amendment are quickly reversed. The majority of our court
    distrusts gun owners and thinks the Second Amendment is a
    vestigial organ of their living constitution. Those views
    drive this circuit’s caselaw ignoring the original meaning of
    the Second Amendment and fully exploiting the discretion
    inherent in the Supreme Court’s cases to make certain that
    no government regulation ever fails our laughably
    “heightened” Second Amendment scrutiny.
    This case is par for the course. The majority emphasizes
    the statistical rarity of law-abiding citizens’ need to fire more
    than an average of 2.2 shots in self-defense, but glosses over
    the statistical rarity of the harm that California points to as
    supporting its magazine ban. Instead of requiring the
    government to make an actual heightened showing, it
    heavily weighs the government’s claim that guns holding
    more than 10 rounds are “dangerous” (of course they are—
    all guns are) against a self-defense interest that the majority
    discounts to effectively nothing. Once again, our court
    flouts the Supreme Court’s exhortation against such “a
    144                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    freestanding ‘interest-balancing’ approach” to the Second
    Amendment. District of Columbia v. Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    ,
    634 (2008).
    If the Second Amendment is ever going to provide any
    real protection, something needs to change. I have some
    suggestions, which I offer below after first discussing some
    of the flaws in the majority’s analysis of this case. 1 Until the
    Supreme Court requires us to implement a paradigm shift,
    the Second Amendment will remain a second-class right—
    especially here in the Ninth Circuit.
    * * *
    It should be presumptively unconstitutional to burden
    constitutional rights. But looking at our court’s cases, you
    would assume that any burden on the right to bear arms is
    presumptively permitted. I’ve described before how our
    circuit’s version of Second Amendment “heightened”
    scrutiny has no height. It is practically indistinguishable
    from rational basis review. See Mai v. United States,
    
    974 F.3d 1082
    , 1097–106 (9th Cir. 2020) (VanDyke, J.,
    dissenting from denial of rehearing en banc). While our
    court gives lip service to Heller, its practice of effectively
    applying rational basis review ignores Heller’s admonition
    that if passing rational basis review was “all that was
    required to overcome the right to keep and bear arms . . . the
    Second Amendment would be redundant . . . .” Heller,
    
    554 U.S. at
    628 n.27.
    1
    Because Judge Bumatay’s dissent explains at length the
    shortcomings of the majority’s analysis, I provide only some
    supplemental observations.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       145
    The brokenness of our court’s balancing approach is
    particularly evident in this case, where the majority weighs
    rarity like lead when it favors the ban, but then weighs rarity
    like helium when it undermines California’s asserted
    interest. On one hand, the majority ignores the fact that
    California’s claimed reason for its ban—mass shootings—
    involves a harm that, while tragic and attention-grabbing, is
    thankfully extremely rare by any statistical metric. You are
    much more likely to be randomly injured or killed by a drunk
    driver than a mass shooter. But on the other hand, the
    majority emphasizes the rarity of any individual American’s
    use of ammunition in self-defense, latching onto California’s
    argument that only 2.2 rounds are used on average in a self-
    defense shooting, and concludes that any more rounds than
    that are thus outside the “core” of the Second Amendment.
    We might call this Version 2.2 of the Second
    Amendment. It cannot be the right way to analyze an alleged
    violation of the right to bear arms. The average number of
    times that any law-abiding citizen ever needs to “bear arms”
    at all in a self-defense situation is far below one—most
    people will (thankfully) never need to use a gun to defend
    themselves. Thus, applying the majority’s rarity analysis,
    possession of a gun itself falls outside the “core” of the
    Second Amendment. But we know that cannot be true from
    Heller, where the Supreme Court determined “self-defense
    . . . was the central component” of the Second Amendment,
    notwithstanding the practical infrequency of any particular
    person’s need to actually defend herself with a gun. 
    554 U.S. at 599
    .
    So the majority’s rarity balancing isn’t just lopsided—it
    starts from the wrong premise. We would never treat
    fundamental rights we care about this way, particularly those
    expressly enumerated in the Constitution. We don’t protect
    146                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    the free speech of the taciturn less than the loquacious. We
    don’t protect the free exercise of religion in proportion to
    how often people go to church. We wouldn’t even allow
    soldiers to be quartered only in those parts of your house you
    don’t use much. Express constitutional rights by their nature
    draw brighter and more prophylactic lines—precisely
    because those who recognized them were concerned that
    people like California’s government and the judges on our
    court will attempt to pare back a right they no longer find
    useful. This is the sentiment James Madison expressed in
    extolling “the wisdom of descrying . . . the minute tax of 3
    pence on tea, the magnitude of the evil comprized in the
    precedent. Let [us] exert the same wisdom, in watching agst
    every evil lurking under plausible disguises, and growing up
    from small beginnings.”               Madison’s “Detached
    Memoranda,” 3 Wm. & Mary Q. (3d ser.) 534, 557–58 (E.
    Fleet ed., 1946). The majority here extends our circuit’s
    practice of chipping away at a disfavored constitutional
    right, replacing the Second Amendment with their 2.2nd
    Amendment.
    This case is the latest demonstration that our circuit’s
    current test is too elastic to impose any discipline on judges
    who fundamentally disagree with the need to keep and bear
    arms. I consequently suggest two less manipulable tests the
    Supreme Court should impose on lower courts for analyzing
    government regulations burdening Second Amendment
    rights, replacing the current malleable two-step, two-
    pronged inquiry with something that would require courts to
    actually enforce the second provision of the Bill of Rights.
    First, the Supreme Court should elevate and clarify
    Heller’s “common use” language and explain that when a
    firearm product or usage that a state seeks to ban is currently
    prevalent throughout our nation (like the magazines
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      147
    California has banned here), then strict scrutiny applies.
    Second, the Court should direct lower courts like ours to
    compare one state’s firearm regulation to what other states
    do (here a majority of states allow what California bans), and
    when most other states don’t similarly regulate, again, apply
    strict scrutiny. Where many law-abiding citizens seeking to
    prepare to defend themselves have embraced a particular
    product or usage, or the majority of states have not seen a
    necessity to restrict it, real heightened scrutiny should be
    required instead of allowing our court to sloppily balance the
    citizen’s “need” against the government’s claimed “harm.”
    No doubt these proposed tests are not perfectly
    satisfying—doctrinally or academically. Few actual legal
    tests are, since the application of legal rules happens in the
    messiness of the real world. Nor would these suggested tests
    address every situation. Judge Berzon observes, for
    example, that under the “common use” test I seek to
    invigorate, gun-adverse states like California will
    predictably react to new technologies by trying to kill the
    baby in the cradle—immediately banning any new
    technology before it can become “commonly used.” Perhaps
    so, but those are difficulties at the margin. Right now, as I
    discuss further below, we have a Second Amendment test
    that enables zero enforcement in this circuit. Ultimately,
    Judge Bumatay’s and Judge Berzon’s opinions converge at
    one very important point: neither our current two-step test
    nor any proposed alternative that allows much interpretative
    or balancing discretion will ultimately lead to consistent and
    rigorous enforcement of the Second Amendment—
    particularly with the many judges who disagree with its very
    148                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    purpose. 2 It’s now beyond obvious that you can’t expect our
    court to faithfully apply any Second Amendment test that
    allows us to exercise much discretion. Many fundamental
    rights are protected by more bright-line tests. 3 It’s past time
    we bring that to the Second Amendment.
    I. The Majority Takes Our Circuit’s “Heightened”
    Scrutiny to a New Low.
    I’ve observed before how, for Second Amendment cases,
    our circuit has “watered down the ‘reasonable fit’ prong of
    intermediate scrutiny to little more than rational basis
    review,” starting by borrowing an inapt test from the First
    Amendment context and then weakening it with each
    passing case upholding government restrictions. Mai,
    974 F.3d at 1101–04 (VanDyke, J., dissenting from denial of
    rehearing en banc). This case furthers that trend. Instead of
    “demand[ing] a closer regulatory fit for a law that directly
    burdens a fundamental right,” our en banc court fails to
    apply any “real heightened scrutiny, or even just faithfully
    appl[y] the [heightened scrutiny] test as articulated in”
    comparable First Amendment jurisprudence. Id. at 1104.
    2
    To be clear, I think Judge Bumatay has penned an exemplary
    dissent addressing “text, tradition, and history.” My objection is not that
    judges cannot do good analysis under this framework, but rather that
    without a more bright-line test there is far too much opportunity for
    manipulation, especially with a right as unpopular with some judges as
    the Second Amendment.
    3
    See David B. Kopel & Joseph G.S. Greenlee, The Federal Circuits’
    Second Amendment Doctrines, 61 ST. LOUIS U.L.J. 193, 303 (2017)
    (“Bright-line rules declaring certain government actions categorically
    unconstitutional, without the need for a means/ends test, are common in
    constitutional law. They are found in the First Amendment, Fifth
    Amendment, Sixth Amendment, Eighth Amendment, Tenth
    Amendment, and Fourteenth Amendment.”) (footnotes omitted).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                              149
    Indeed, notwithstanding our court’s early commitment that
    “we are . . . guided by First Amendment principles” in
    applying the Second Amendment, Jackson v. City & Cnty.
    of San Francisco, 
    746 F.3d 953
    , 961 (9th Cir. 2014), it is
    telling that comparisons between the First and Second
    Amendment in this latest case have largely been dropped by
    the majority and relegated to concurring opinions—likely
    because it gets embarrassing and wearisome to constantly
    rationalize why we treat the Second Amendment so
    differently than its close constitutional neighbor.
    In analyzing whether California’s magazine ban violates
    the Second Amendment, the majority here follows a now
    well-traveled path. It starts like many of our Second
    Amendment cases: by assuming, instead of deciding, that the
    Second Amendment even applies to California’s ban. See,
    e.g., Mai v. United States, 
    952 F.3d 1106
    , 1114–15 (9th Cir.
    2020); Pena v. Lindley, 
    898 F.3d 969
    , 976 (9th Cir. 2018);
    Fyock v. City of Sunnyvale, 
    779 F.3d 991
    , 997 (9th Cir.
    2015). 4 This itself is very telling. It emphasizes the practical
    4
    The majority claims that the current two-step inquiry “faithfully
    adheres” to Heller, since “history, text, and tradition greatly inform step
    one of the analysis . . . .” But this only illustrates my point about the
    malleability of our current framework. Our court consistently uses step
    one of our test to either: (1) wade through the complicated history to
    conclude the regulation does not burden conduct protected by the Second
    Amendment at all, see, e.g., Young v. Hawaii, 
    992 F.3d 765
    , 785 (9th
    Cir. 2021) (en banc) (“As we might expect in this area, fraught with
    strong opinions and emotions, history is complicated, and the record is
    far from uniform.”); or (2) as here, side-step this inquiry altogether by
    assuming the conduct implicates the Second Amendment, only to uphold
    the regulation at step two by applying an extremely loose balancing test
    (more on that below). It’s clear that history, text, and tradition is
    currently comatose in our circuit’s jurisprudence enforcing the Second
    Amendment—we only rely on it when deemed useful to support the
    150                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    vacuity of the second step in our court’s two-step test. The
    reason it is so effortless for our court to “assume” that the
    Second Amendment applies is because the plaintiff will
    always lose at our court’s step-two intermediate scrutiny. If
    we genuinely applied any form of heightened scrutiny, we
    would have to be more careful and concise about what
    activity or item warrants protection under the Second
    Amendment. And something is wrong when most of our
    court’s judges can’t bring themselves to say the Second
    Amendment actually covers anything beyond a Heller-style
    total handgun ban. It’s the judicial equivalent of holding
    your nose.
    After the majority here assumes that California’s
    magazine ban “implicates” the Second Amendment at step
    one of our test, at step two it concludes that banning the most
    commonly purchased magazine used in handguns for self-
    defense only places a “small burden” on the exercise of the
    right to bear arms and thus only intermediate scrutiny
    applies. And by this point we all know what that means: the
    regulation burdening the citizens’ Second Amendment
    rights always wins under our version of Second Amendment
    “intermediate scrutiny.” Repeatedly characterizing the
    legislation as a “minimal burden,” the majority decries any
    possible need for the banned magazines and relies heavily
    on the rarity of their full use in self-defense, while giving no
    weight to the effectiveness of such magazines in self-
    defense.
    Building on this rationale, Judge Graber’s concurrence
    provides a list of unrealistic alternatives one could use in lieu
    of a higher-capacity magazine: carry multiple guns; carry
    conclusion that something falls outside our court’s illusory Second
    Amendment protection.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       151
    extra magazines; carry some loose rounds in your pocket;
    carry a cop (okay, I made that last one up). I doubt many
    who actually carry a gun for self-defense would find these
    alternatives realistic. And the majority references no
    “heightened” showing made by the government, other than
    listing past tragic events across the nation in which criminals
    misused guns. Those events were, of course, horrific. But
    citing select (and in this case, statistically very rare)
    examples of misuse cannot be a basis to overcome the
    Second Amendment. If it was, then the much more prevalent
    misuse of guns in criminal activity generally would suffice
    to ban all guns. That is why, when applying real heightened
    scrutiny, a “substantial relation is necessary but not
    sufficient.” Ams. for Prosperity Found. v. Bonta, 
    141 S. Ct. 2373
    , 2384 (2021) (applying exacting scrutiny in a First
    Amendment case).
    The truth is that what our court calls “intermediate
    scrutiny” when reviewing Second Amendment cases doesn’t
    even rise to the level of real rational basis review. That’s a
    bold claim, I know. But think about it: if your state banned
    all cars, forcing all its citizens to use bicycles because many
    people are killed by drunk drivers (not to mention
    automobile accidents generally), would you think that was
    rational? No. What if California just banned all large
    vehicles (trucks, vans, etc.) because on rare occasions some
    crazed individual intentionally drives his car into a group of
    people, and large cars presumably do more damage? I doubt
    it. But that is what California has done here—banned a type
    of firearm magazine that has obvious self-defense benefits
    when used against a group of assailants, based on a
    purported harm that, while high-profile, is statistically
    152                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    extraordinarily improbable. 5 Much more improbable than
    harm from misuse of a car. And while cars are not expressly
    protected by the Constitution, “arms” are. 6
    The reason I think most of my colleagues on this court
    would genuinely struggle more with a car ban than they do
    with a gun ban is that they naturally see the value in cars.
    They drive cars. So they are willing to accept some
    inevitable amount of misuse of cars by others. And my
    colleagues similarly have no problem protecting speech—
    even worthless, obnoxious, and hateful speech 7—because
    they like and value speech generally. After all, they made
    5
    By emphasizing their statistical rarity, I do not belittle the tragedy
    experienced by those affected by a mass shooting (any more than
    observing that airline crashes are thankfully rare detracts from the
    heartbreak of those involved when they happen).
    6
    Characterizing my car ban analogies as “inapt,” the majority says
    that California’s magazine ban is more akin to “speed limits.” But in
    attempting to trade my analogies for a more favorable one, the majority
    misses the obvious point: that in every context except our distorted
    Second Amendment jurisprudence, everyone agrees that when you
    evaluate whether a response to avoid some harm is “rational”—much
    less a “reasonable fit”—you take into account both the gravity of the
    possible harm and the risk of it occurring. The majority here completely
    ignores the latter. Perhaps if I use the majority’s own analogy it might
    click: If California chose to impose a state-wide 10 mph speed limit to
    prevent the very real harm of over 3,700 motor-vehicle deaths each year
    experienced from driving over 10 mph, no one would think such a
    response is rational—precisely because, even though the many deaths
    from such crashes are terrible, they are a comparatively rare occurrence
    (although much more common than deaths caused by mass shootings).
    7
    See, e.g., Sable Commc’ns of Cal., Inc. v. F.C.C., 
    492 U.S. 115
    ,
    126 (1989) (“indecent . . . [expression] is protected by the First
    Amendment”); Nat’l Socialist Party of Am. v. Vill. of Skokie, 
    432 U.S. 43
    , 44 (1977) (per curiam) (protecting the First Amendment rights of
    Nazis to protest).
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       153
    their careers from exercising their own speech rights. On the
    other hand, as clearly demonstrated by this case, most of my
    colleagues see “limited lawful” value in most things firearm-
    related.
    But the protections our founders enshrined in the Bill of
    Rights were put there precisely because they worried our
    future leaders might not sufficiently value them. That is why
    our court’s “intermediate scrutiny” balancing approach to
    the Second Amendment is no more appropriate here than it
    would be for any other fundamental right. As the Supreme
    Court explained in rejecting Justice Breyer’s “‘interest-
    balancing’ approach,” noting that “no other enumerated
    constitutional right[‘s] . . . core protection” was subject to
    such a test,
    [t]he very enumeration of the right takes out
    of the hands of government—even the Third
    Branch of Government—the power to decide
    on a case-by-case basis whether the right is
    really worth insisting upon. A constitutional
    guarantee subject to future judges’
    assessments of its usefulness is no
    constitutional guarantee at all.
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. at
    634–35.
    The majority repeatedly denies that it is engaging in the
    type of “judge-empowering interest-balancing inquiry”
    rejected in Heller, insisting instead that it is merely applying
    our “traditional test” in this case. It’s doing both. Our
    traditional two-part test is a “judge-empowering interest-
    balancing inquiry.” It’s a convoluted, multi-step balancing
    test that weighs different considerations at different times so
    as to give judges maximum discretion and mask when they
    treat the same considerations differently at the various stages
    154                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    of the balancing (like here). When one steps back and
    evaluates our current Second Amendment test, it is clear the
    court is engaging in an interest-balancing test—it’s just that
    the balancing is done in two or more steps instead of all
    together.
    What we call our two-step test really has three parts,
    since the second “step” is divided into two parts. A play in
    two acts, so to speak. Step II, Part I: the court determines
    the proper level of scrutiny, which includes weighing “the
    severity of the law’s burden on the right.” Step II, Part II:
    the court then applies the “appropriate” level of scrutiny
    (which, in our court’s case, is always intermediate), where
    the court weighs the government’s interest in the regulation
    (including “reasonable fit”). An ever-adapting script, it is
    always these two competing interests that drive the court’s
    analysis. Ultimately, the court is comparing the plaintiff’s
    burden against the state’s interest. If the burden on the
    plaintiff’s Second Amendment rights is great (i.e., near the
    mythical “core” of the Second Amendment), then the
    government is (theoretically) required to make a stronger
    showing of its interest and fit. And vice-versa. Like a good
    Marvel movie, there’s always lots of drama, but the result is
    fore-ordained.
    This particularly pernicious balancing test is a shell
    game. The balancing is done piecemeal so that the court can
    use differently weighted scales at each step and obfuscate the
    stark disparity between how it weighs the impact from the
    claimed violation of an express constitutional right, versus
    how it weighs the government’s justification and the
    regulation’s fit. When weighing the impact on the elusive
    “core” of the Second Amendment, the court whips out a
    scale specially calibrated to always read “minimal burden”
    (unless the government officials were dumb enough to do
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      155
    exactly the same thing Washington, D.C. and Chicago did in
    Heller and McDonald: entirely ban all handguns). But when
    it comes time to weigh the government’s interest and the
    reasonableness of the regulation’s fit under “intermediate
    scrutiny,” the court puts away the first scale and pulls out a
    different scale calibrated to always read “close enough,”
    even where, as here, the fit between the ban and the ultrarare
    harm asserted is not even rational.
    The majority acknowledges that, applying our super-
    pliable test, “we have not struck down any state or federal
    law under the Second Amendment.” But it insists “we have
    carefully examined each challenge on its own merit.” If
    every case without fail leads to the same anti-firearms
    conclusion, however, then at some point it begs credulity to
    deny that something else is driving the outcomes.
    Judge Hurwitz has penned a short concurrence
    respectfully characterizing as inappropriate and hyperbolic
    my observations regarding how my colleague’s personal
    views influence our court’s Second Amendment cases. I
    agree that it is a troubling charge to posit personal views as
    a driving force behind judicial decision-making, and not one
    I make lightly. But whatever else it may be, my claim is
    hardly hyperbolic. Here are the facts: We are a monstrosity
    of a court exercising jurisdiction over 20% of the U.S.
    population and almost one-fifth of the states—including
    states pushing the most aggressive gun-control restrictions
    in the nation. By my count, we have had at least 50 Second
    Amendment challenges since Heller—significantly more
    than any other circuit—all of which we have ultimately
    denied. In those few instances where a panel of our court
    has granted Second Amendment relief, we have without fail
    taken the case en banc to reverse that ruling. This is true
    regardless of the diverse regulations that have come before
    156                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    us—from storage restrictions to waiting periods to
    ammunition restrictions to conceal carry bans to open carry
    bans to magazine capacity prohibitions—the common thread
    is our court’s ready willingness to bless any restriction
    related to guns. Respectfully, Judge Hurwitz’s claim that
    our judges’ personal views about the Second Amendment
    and guns have not affected our jurisprudence is simply not
    plausible. Res ipsa loquitur.
    Judge Hurwitz’s own concurrence demonstrates this
    reality. In defending the validity of California’s interest, he
    doesn’t dispute that mass shootings are “infrequent,” but
    expressly dismisses that reality as irrelevant. Why?
    Because, in his view, “hardly anyone is untouched by the[]
    devastation.” His proof? A very personal anecdote about
    losing our beloved colleague to a mass shooting. No one
    disputes the depth of that tragedy, which is exactly why such
    uncommon occurrences nonetheless deeply influence my
    colleagues’ views about gun control and the Second
    Amendment. But the fact that members of our court have
    been personally affected by a mass shooting is not a
    legitimate reason to ignore the undisputed statistical rarity
    when weighing the government’s interest in its ban—it falls
    in the same category as choosing to drive instead of flying
    because you know someone who was tragically killed in a
    rare commercial airline accident.            As a personal
    psychological phenomenon, such exaggeration of risks is
    completely understandable. As a legal matter, it should have
    no place in applying fundamental constitutional rights,
    including the Second Amendment. And just as irrelevant is
    Judge Hurwitz’s reliance on yet more personal anecdotes—
    that “[o]ther members of the Court have lost family and
    friends to gun violence”—that are entirely unrelated to mass
    shootings. Defending California’s regulation by sharing
    such deeply personal examples only demonstrates just how
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      157
    hard it is for any judge, including my esteemed and talented
    colleagues, to evaluate these cases in the objective and
    detached manner required when the legal test itself offers no
    meaningful guiderails.
    It is important to emphasize that I point to my valued
    colleagues’ personal views not to engage in some unrelated
    ad hominem attack, but rather because the impact of those
    views is directly relevant to the purpose of this dissent.
    When judges are effectively told to balance the necessity for
    some particular gun-control regulation against that
    regulation’s effect on the “core” of the Second Amendment,
    there isn’t much for the judges to work with other than their
    own personal views about guns and the Second Amendment.
    Whether judges intend to bring in their personal views or
    not, those views inescapably control our holdings when
    applying a test as malleable as our Second Amendment
    intermediate scrutiny standard. Without rules that actually
    bind judges, personal intuition inescapably fills the void.
    The result of individual judges applying a formless test is a
    world where “equality of treatment is difficult to
    demonstrate and, in a multi-tiered judicial system,
    impossible to achieve . . . .” Antonin Scalia, The Rule of
    Law as a Law of Rules, 56 U. CHI. L. REV. 1175, 1182
    (1989).
    Instead of striving to avoid this inequality of treatment,
    the majority highlights the inequality among the circuits as a
    defense of our current two-step approach. They do this by
    citing one case to show “our sister circuits, applying the
    same two-step inquiry that we apply today, have not
    hesitated to strike down provisions that go too far.” This
    again bolsters my point. Because the prevailing two-step
    balancing test is so malleable and discretionary, one would
    expect that different judges with different conceptions of
    158                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    guns and gun rights would weigh the different considerations
    differently and come to different conclusions. 8
    Until the Supreme Court forces our court to do
    something different than balance our view of the utility of
    some firearm product or usage against the government’s
    claimed harm from its misuse, the Second Amendment will
    remain essentially an ink blot in this circuit.
    II. The Majority’s Second Amendment Scales Are
    Rigged.
    Not content to just tilt the rules of the game heavily in
    the government’s favor via our pathetically anemic
    “intermediate scrutiny,” the majority here also stacks the
    evidentiary deck. The majority balances the average rarity
    of the use of ammunition in lawful self-defense situations as
    weighing heavily against its protection under the Second
    Amendment. Meanwhile, it studiously ignores the rarity of
    the harm (mass shootings) that California puts forward to
    support its ban. As explained, such balancing should have
    no place in a case like this—the founders already settled the
    weighty interest citizens have in lawfully bearing
    commonplace self-defense arms like those California has
    banned here. But the stark disparity between how the
    8
    The majority defends our undefeated, 50–0 record against the
    Second Amendment by pointing out that the states in our circuit simply
    have “more restrained” gun-control laws than the states in other circuits.
    While the majority is apparently serious, this claim can’t be taken
    seriously given that our circuit’s jurisdiction includes states like
    California and Hawaii—which have enacted many of the most
    aggressive gun-control laws in the nation. The majority’s failure to
    comprehend that reality underscores my point that something other than
    objective and impartial application of the two-part test is driving the
    outcomes in our Second Amendment cases.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                            159
    majority treats the very same attribute depending on whether
    it supports or undercuts the majority’s desired outcome
    illustrates well that, even if we thought balancing might have
    a proper role in evaluating our Second Amendment rights,
    we can’t expect judges who fundamentally disagree with the
    Second Amendment to fairly read the scales.
    The reality is that essentially everything the Second
    Amendment is about is rare, for which we all should be very
    grateful. Government tyranny of the sort to be met by force
    of arms has been, in the short history of our country,
    fortunately rare. The actual need for any particular person
    to use her firearm to defend herself is, again, extremely
    rare—most of us will thankfully never need to use a gun to
    defend ourselves during our entire life. 9 And in those rare
    instances where a firearm is used in self-defense, the amount
    of ammunition needed is generally very little—oftentimes
    none at all. It is certainly true that most of us will use exactly
    zero rounds of ammunition to defend ourselves—ever. So if
    the Second Amendment protects anything, it is our right to
    be prepared for dangers that, thankfully, very rarely
    materialize.
    Given that, the majority’s focus on the fact that only
    2.2 bullets are used on average in a self-defense shooting,
    and concluding that a law banning more than that “interferes
    only minimally with the core right of self-defense,” is
    9
    Observing the rarity does not diminish the fact that thousands of
    citizens use their firearms for lawful self-defense each year. It simply
    means that as a percentage of the population generally, or even lawful
    gun owners, that percentage is tiny.
    160                      DUNCAN V. BONTA
    grossly misplaced. 10 An average of 0.0 rounds are fired on
    average in preventing government tyranny. And the average
    person will fire an average of 0.0 rounds in self-defense in
    their entire lifetime. If the rarity alone of exercising one’s
    Second Amendment rights cuts so dispositively against their
    protection, then the Second Amendment protects nothing.
    Yet when it comes to the uncommonness of mass
    shootings—the reason California says it needs its magazine
    ban—the majority counts that as nothing. You would think
    that if the government seeks to interfere with a fundamental
    right, the infrequency of the claimed harm would be a very
    important consideration. For example, if the government
    sought to ban some type of communication because it very
    infrequently resulted in harm, we would never countenance
    that. On the other hand, where some type of communication
    frequently results in harm, it might survive heightened
    scrutiny (e.g., fighting words).
    Here, California relies on a statistically very rare harm as
    justifying its ban, but a harm that, while infrequent, grabs
    headlines and is emotionally compelling. The emotional
    impact of these tragedies does all the work for the
    government and our court. But if a court was going to
    balance a fundamental right against a claimed harm, that is
    precisely where judges must cut through the emotion and do
    10
    California currently allows more than 2.2 rounds in a magazine,
    and does not prohibit carrying multiple magazines. But don’t be fooled.
    Under the majority’s Version 2.2 of the Second Amendment, there is no
    reason a state couldn’t limit its citizens to carrying a (generous) 3 rounds
    total for self-defense.
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                              161
    their job of holding the government to its (supposedly
    heightened) burden. The majority here doesn’t even try. 11
    The majority’s uneven treatment of rarity is not the only
    example where its anti-Second Amendment bias shows
    through in how it reads the record. The majority questions
    whether law-abiding citizens even want higher capacity
    magazines for self-defense, speculating “whether circulation
    percentages of a part that comes standard with many firearm
    purchases meaningfully reflect an affirmative choice by
    consumers.” But such musings only reveal a clear lack of
    knowledge about guns—or even basic economics,
    apparently. In free countries like this one, unless a market is
    interfered with by regulations like the one at issue in this
    case, it generally provides what consumers want. The
    market for self-defense firearms is no exception. Until only
    a few years ago, if you wanted a “micro-compact” firearm
    for self-defense (of the type that serves little or no military
    usage), you were generally limited to a six to eight-round
    magazine capacity. For example, the KelTec P3AT came
    with a six-round magazine, as did the Ruger LCP, Glock 43,
    Kimber Solo, and Walther PPK (of James Bond fame). The
    Kahr PM9 and Sig Sauer P238 offered six or seven-round
    11
    The majority implies that by emphasizing the rarity of mass
    shootings, I omit the other relevant part of the analysis: “the incredible
    harm caused by mass shootings.” I’m not ignoring the “incredible
    harm”; I’m simply saying that, just as we do with all serious harms, we
    must evaluate the seriousness of that harm along with the probability of
    it occurring. For example, no one doubts that commercial airline
    crashes, when they occur, result in “incredible harm.” And yet no
    government has seriously considered banning commercial flights. Why?
    Because airplane crashes are extremely rare—just like mass shootings.
    The majority’s response—doubling down on its emphasis of the harm
    while continuing to intentionally avoid its rarity—demonstrates that it is
    the majority, not me, that “omits . . . [a] critical part of the analysis.”
    162                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    magazines, while the Smith & Wesson M&P Shield came
    with seven or eight rounds. Not too long ago, it was
    basically impossible to find a lightweight, micro-compact
    firearm even capable of holding 10 rounds in its magazine.
    Then, in 2019, Sig Sauer released the P365, which took
    the self-defense market by storm because suddenly law-
    abiding citizens could have the same size micro-compact
    firearm, but now carrying 12 or 15 rounds in its magazine.
    Other companies quickly followed suit, with Springfield
    Armory releasing the Hellcat (11 to 13-round magazines),
    Ruger releasing the Max-9 (12+1), Smith & Wesson
    releasing the M&P Shield Plus (13+1), and Kimber releasing
    the R7 Mako (13+1). Aftermarket magazine manufacturers
    like Shield Arms released flush-fitting magazines holding
    15 rounds for diminutive guns like the Glock 43x and 48.
    All this has happened in just the past few years, in
    segment of the firearms market that has essentially no
    “military” application. It has happened because many law-
    abiding citizens want higher capacity magazines for one
    purpose: self-defense. The majority’s odd speculation that
    maybe the self-defense market doesn’t want higher capacity
    magazines is as uninformed as wondering why cruise-
    control comes standard on their cars since nobody in their
    urban neighborhood wants it.
    While the majority is happy to engage in ill-informed
    speculation when it comes to limiting gun rights, it
    demonstrates a distinct lack of imagination and basic logic
    when it comes to understanding why so many citizens desire
    a magazine holding over 10 rounds. First, the majority posits
    a classic false dilemma (a.k.a. an either-or fallacy) by
    waxing on at length about how larger magazines “provide
    significant benefits in a military setting,” not self-defense.
    Of course, almost every attribute of a weapon that makes it
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                       163
    more effective for military purposes also makes it more
    effective for self-defense: more accurate, faster firing, the
    ability to engage multiple targets quickly—these are all
    characteristics of a weapon that make it better for both
    military and self-defense purposes. The majority’s fixation
    on the effectiveness of higher-capacity magazines in the
    military context does not somehow demonstrate that the
    magazines are not also useful for self-defense.
    The majority relatedly adopts California’s argument that
    magazines over 10 rounds are “dangerous” when misused.
    Again, essentially every attribute of a weapon that makes it
    more effective for self-defense makes it more dangerous
    when misused. Good sights on a handgun make it more
    effective for lawful self-defense—but also make it more
    dangerous when misused. A pistol that doesn’t malfunction
    is really nice to have in a self-defense situation—but is also
    more dangerous when misused. Modern hollow-point
    ammunition, with its dramatically increased stopping
    potential, has seriously improved the performance of
    handguns in a self-defense situation—but of course also
    make the handgun more dangerous when misused. This type
    of logic, applied the way the majority does, would justify
    banning all semi-automatics since they are more dangerous
    than revolvers, all revolvers since they are more dangerous
    than derringers, all derringers since they are more dangerous
    than knives . . . until we are left with toothpicks. That is why
    the Supreme Court in Heller only talked about weapons that
    are both “dangerous and unusual” being outside the purview
    of the Second Amendment. 
    554 U.S. at 627
     (emphasis
    added) (citation omitted). The mere fact that some attribute
    (like a larger capacity magazine) might make a weapon more
    “dangerous” when misused cannot be a basis to avoid the
    Second Amendment—if so, the Second Amendment
    protects only nerf guns.
    164                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    The majority also latches onto California’s argument that
    “mass shootings often involve large-capacity magazines.”
    That is hardly surprising, given that, as the majority itself
    acknowledges, “[m]ost pistols are manufactured with
    magazines holding ten to seventeen rounds, and many
    popular rifles are manufactured with magazines holding
    twenty or thirty rounds” (citation and internal quotation
    marks omitted). So, in other words, mass shootings involve
    the most common types of firearms. This is the sort of
    evidence that suffices to meet our circuit’s “heightened”
    review under the Second Amendment?
    The majority also relies on the argument that limiting
    magazine capacity provides “precious down-time” during
    reloading, giving “victims and law enforcement officers”
    time to “fight back.” But here again, that same “down-time”
    applies equally to a mother seeking to protect herself and her
    children from a gang of criminals breaking into her home, or
    a law-abiding citizen caught alone by one of the lawless
    criminal mobs that recently have been terrorizing cities in
    our circuit. The majority focuses only on ways higher
    capacity magazines might cause more harm in the very rare
    mass shooting, while dismissing the life-threatening impact
    of being forced to reload in a self-defense situation as a mere
    “inconvenience,” and characterizing as mere “speculat[ion]
    . . . situations in which a person might want to use a large-
    capacity magazine for self-defense.”
    Ultimately, it is not altogether surprising that federal
    judges, who have armed security protecting their workplace,
    home security systems supplied at taxpayer expense, and the
    ability to call an armed marshal to their upper-middleclass
    home whenever they feel the whiff of a threat, would have
    trouble relating to why the average person might want a
    magazine with over ten rounds to defend herself. But this
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      165
    simply reinforces why those same judges shouldn’t be
    expected to fairly balance any Second Amendment test
    asking whether ordinary law-abiding citizens really need
    some firearm product or usage.
    III.     The Supreme Court Needs to Constrain Lower
    Courts’ Discretion.
    We need tests that require real heightened scrutiny and
    will pull our courts out of the habit of inverted deference to
    burdens on Second Amendment rights. In that vein, I
    propose several less-discretionary tests the Supreme Court
    should impose to cabin my errant brethren.
    A. Common Use
    My first proposal is for the Supreme Court to put real
    teeth into a consideration that has been around since at least
    as far back as 1939, when the Supreme Court noted that the
    Second Amendment’s reference to the Militia signified that
    the “arms” referenced by that provision are those “of the
    kind in common use at the time.” United States v. Miller,
    
    307 U.S. 174
    , 179 (1939). Again in Heller, the Court
    reiterated that “the sorts of weapons protected” by the
    Second Amendment are “those ‘in common use at the
    time.’” 
    554 U.S. at 627
     (quoting Miller, 
    307 U.S. at 179
    ).
    Reinforcing this precedent, the Supreme Court should make
    clear that any regulation that prohibits a firearm product or
    usage that is “in common use” nationally must pass strict
    scrutiny. Not only would that curtail lower courts’ abuse of
    their discretion in applying the Second Amendment, but it
    would also help address a perennial line-drawing difficulty
    inherent in the right to keep and bear arms.
    One of the ongoing problems with defining the contours
    of any constitutional right is determining how it applies to
    166                  DUNCAN V. BONTA
    technologies that did not exist when the constitutional
    provision was enacted. For example, how does the First
    Amendment apply to social media or blog posts? But that
    problem is particularly vexing in applying the Second
    Amendment because “arms” by their very nature change
    over time as technology advances. As the Court in Heller
    correctly observed, the Second Amendment does not protect
    “only those arms in existence in the 18th century . . . . We
    do not interpret constitutional rights that way.” Id. at 582.
    But while we know that “the Second Amendment extends,
    prima facie, to all instruments that constitute bearable arms,
    even those that were not in existence at the time of the
    founding,” id. (emphasis added), in an age where weapons
    run the gamut from fighter jets to tanks to fully-automatic
    machine guns to AR-15s to handguns to pocketknives,
    which weapons are protected by the Second Amendment and
    which are not? As this case and others like it demonstrate,
    we cannot rely on insular federal judges to weigh which
    weapons are appropriate for self-defense—they honestly
    don’t have a clue, and their intuitions about firearms are not
    good. And we can’t rely on governments to decide—that’s
    who the Second Amendment was intended to protect against.
    But as Heller discusses, we can look to what weapons law-
    abiding citizens have chosen to defend themselves—that is,
    what weapons are currently “in common use . . . for lawful
    purposes.” Id. at 624 (internal quotation marks omitted).
    Here, law-abiding citizens across the nation have
    purchased literally millions upon millions of the type of
    magazines that California has banned. Americans currently
    possess between seventy to one hundred million of those
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                           167
    magazines for self-defense. 12 The majority here concludes
    that banning them is a “small burden” on the Second
    Amendment because they “provide at most a minimal
    benefit for civilian, lawful purposes.” Millions of our fellow
    Americans disagree with my seven colleagues in the
    majority, evincing by their purchase and “keep[ing]” of
    those magazines that they consider them necessary for self-
    defense. That should count for something—actually, it
    should count for a lot, especially for a constitutional
    guarantee that ostensibly protects “the right of the people to
    keep and bear arms.” As the Heller Court explained in
    rejecting the argument that handguns could be banned
    because rifles weren’t, it was “enough to note . . . that the
    American people have considered the handgun to be the
    quintessential self-defense weapon.” Id. at 629. That same
    rationale should apply for any firearm product or usage that
    law-abiding citizens across the nation have chosen for self-
    defense.
    B. State Law Survey
    A government should also have to meet strict scrutiny if
    it bans a firearm product or usage that is allowed throughout
    most of our nation. If most of the states in the Union allow
    a particular item to be used in the course of exercising a
    Second Amendment right, then the government’s
    12
    67% of gun owners say self-defense is a major reason why they
    own their firearm. See Kim Parker, et al., The demographics of gun
    ownership in the U.S., PEW RESEARCH CENTER (June 22, 2017),
    https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2017/06/22/the-demographi
    cs-of-gun-ownership/; see also Christopher S. Koper et al., An Updated
    Assessment of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban: Impacts on Gun
    Markets     and    Gun     Violence, 1994–2002,        (June    2004),
    https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/204431.pdf.
    168                   DUNCAN V. BONTA
    justification for forbidding or restricting that item or usage
    should be subjected to strict scrutiny.
    Our court has often cited the practice of other states when
    it suits its purpose in analyzing constitutional rights. See,
    e.g., Young, 992 F.3d at 805 (analyzing the Second
    Amendment, the court observed “[i]n contrast to these states,
    other states—also from the South—upheld good-cause
    restrictions on the open carry of certain dangerous
    firearms”); Family PAC v. McKenna, 
    685 F.3d 800
    , 811 n.12
    (9th Cir. 2012) (First Amendment); S. Or. Barter Fair v.
    Jackson County, 
    372 F.3d 1128
    , 1131 (9th Cir. 2004) (First
    Amendment); Cammack v. Waihee, 
    932 F.2d 765
    , 766–67
    (9th Cir. 1991) (Establishment Clause). Indeed, the majority
    does so here, strangely observing that “California is not
    alone” because a few other states and local governments also
    ban some magazines (even though a super-majority of states
    don’t).
    The majority’s instinct that it makes sense to look at
    other states is right; its execution is just wrong. The fact that
    a handful of states similarly regulate should not help justify
    infringement of a fundamental right. But the fact that most
    other states—here, 41 states and the federal government—
    don’t similarly regulate should cause a court to suspect that
    maybe the government’s supposed justification for its ban is
    lacking.
    Like looking at “common use,” considering other states’
    regulation would have at least one serious incidental side-
    benefit: it would reduce the troubling balkanization that
    currently afflicts a fundamental right supposedly protected
    by the Constitution. Right now, a lawful gun-owner’s ability
    to lawfully “keep and bear arms” is subject to a widely
    varying patchwork quilt of state and local restrictions and
    bans that would be an embarrassment for any other
    DUNCAN V. BONTA                      169
    constitutional right. Requiring governments to satisfy real
    heightened scrutiny before they step too far out of line with
    what is working in most other jurisdictions would help deter
    states like California from using their “laboratory of
    democracy” to conduct ongoing experiments on how to
    subject a fundamental right to death by a thousand cuts. See
    Teixeira v. Cty. of Alameda, 
    873 F.3d 670
    , 694 (9th Cir.
    2017) (en banc) (Tallman, J., concurring).
    * * *
    Our court is fond of saying that Second Amendment
    rights are not absolute. See, e.g., Young, 992 F.3d at 793;
    Silveira v. Lockyer, 
    312 F.3d 1052
    , 1063 (9th Cir. 2002)
    abrogated on other grounds by Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    ; United
    States v. Vongxay, 
    594 F.3d 1111
    , 1117 (9th Cir. 2010). I
    don’t disagree with that truism—I just disagree with our
    court’s reliance on it to uphold every single firearm
    regulation, ever. Requiring that any regulation that prohibits
    a firearm product or usage “in common use” must pass strict
    scrutiny would not mean that a government would be
    helpless to address substantial genuine threats from weapons
    or uses protected by the Second Amendment. It would just
    mean that those governments would actually need to make a
    real “heightened” showing of harm, and a response that is
    narrowly tailored to that harm. That shouldn’t be asking too
    much for a constitutionally protected right.
    If ever there was a case study illustrating Madison’s
    concern about “evil lurking under plausible disguises, and
    growing up from small beginnings,” it is our circuit’s Second
    Amendment jurisprudence. In the thirteen years since the
    Supreme Court ruled in Heller that the Second Amendment
    “guarantee[s] the individual right to possess and carry
    weapons in case of confrontation,” 
    554 U.S. at 592
    , our court
    has trimmed back that right at every opportunity—to the
    170                 DUNCAN V. BONTA
    point that now, in the nine Western states covered by our
    court, the right to “keep and bear arms” means, at most, you
    might get to possess one janky handgun and 2.2 rounds of
    ammunition, and only in your home under lock and key.
    That’s it.
    That’s ridiculous, and so I must respectfully dissent.