City of Oakland v. Oakland Raiders ( 2021 )


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  •                FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    CITY OF OAKLAND,                     No. 20-16075
    Plaintiff-Appellant,
    D.C. No.
    v.                   3:18-cv-07444-
    JCS
    OAKLAND RAIDERS, a California
    Limited Partnership; ARIZONA
    CARDINALS FOOTBALL CLUB, LLC;          OPINION
    ATLANTA FALCONS FOOTBALL CLUB
    LLC; BALTIMORE RAVENS, LP;
    BUFFALO BILLS, LLC; PANTHERS
    FOOTBALL, LLC; CHICAGO BEARS
    FOOTBALL CLUB, INC.; CINCINNATI
    BENGALS, INC.; CLEVELAND
    BROWNS FOOTBALL COMPANY,
    LLC; DALLAS COWBOYS FOOTBALL
    CLUB, LTD.; PDB SPORTS LTD.;
    DETROIT LIONS, INC.; GREEN BAY
    PACKERS, INC.; HOUSTON NFL
    HOLDINGS, LP; INDIANAPOLIS
    COLTS, INC.; JACKSONVILLE
    JAGUARS LLC; KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
    FOOTBALL CLUB, INC.; CHARGERS
    FOOTBALL COMPANY LLC; THE
    RAMS FOOTBALL COMPANY, LLC;
    MIAMI DOLPHINS, LTD.; MINNESOTA
    VIKINGS FOOTBALL LLC; NEW
    YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS, INC.; NEW
    YORK JETS, LLC; PHILADELPHIA
    2         CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    EAGLES LLC; PITTSBURGH
    STEELERS LLC; FORTY NINERS
    FOOTBALL COMPANY LLC;
    FOOTBALL NORTHWEST LLC;
    BUCCANEERS TEAM LLC;
    TENNESSEE FOOTBALL, INC.; PRO-
    FOOTBALL, INC.; NATIONAL
    FOOTBALL LEAGUE; NEW ENGLAND
    PATRIOTS LLC; NEW ORLEANS
    LOUISIANA SAINTS, LLC,
    Defendants-Appellees.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of California
    Joseph C. Spero, Magistrate Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted June 14, 2021
    San Francisco, California
    Filed December 2. 2021
    Before: A. Wallace Tashima and Patrick J. Bumatay,
    Circuit Judges, and Douglas L. Rayes,* District Judge.
    Opinion by Judge A. Wallace Tashima;
    Concurrence by Judge Bumatay
    *
    The Honorable Douglas L. Rayes, United States District Judge for
    the District of Arizona, sitting by designation.
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                            3
    SUMMARY**
    Antitrust
    The panel affirmed the district court’s dismissal, for
    failure to state a claim, of an antitrust action brought by the
    City of Oakland against the National Football League and its
    member teams.
    The City alleged that defendants created artificial scarcity
    in their product of NFL teams, and then used that scarcity to
    demand supra-competitive prices from host cities. The City
    alleged that when it could not pay those prices, defendants
    punished it by allowing the Raiders to move to Las Vegas.
    The panel held that the City had Article III standing
    because it plausibly alleged that, but for defendants’ conduct,
    it would have retained the Raiders, and thus made the
    required showing that its injury was likely caused by
    defendants.
    Affirming the district court’s dismissal, the panel held
    that defendants’ conduct did not amount to an unreasonable
    restraint of trade in violation of § 1 of the Sherman Act. The
    panel held that the City failed sufficiently to allege a group
    boycott, which occurs when multiple producers refuse to sell
    goods or services to a particular customer. Here, the City
    alleged only that a single producer, the Raiders, refused to
    deal with it. The panel held that the City also failed
    sufficiently to allege statutory standing on a theory that
    **
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It has
    been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    4        CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    defendants’ conduct constituted an unlawful horizontal price-
    fixing scheme. The panel held that a finding of antitrust
    standing requires a balancing of the nature of the plaintiff’s
    alleged injury, the directness of the injury, the speculative
    measure of the harm, the risk of duplicative recovery, and the
    complexity in apportioning damages. The panel reasoned
    that here, the City was priced out of the market and therefore
    was a nonpurchaser. In addition, the City’s damages were
    highly speculative and would be exceedingly difficult to
    calculate.
    Concurring, Judge Bumatay wrote that he would hold that
    the price-fixing claim was too speculative to satisfy the
    threshold of constitutional standing. He wrote that the City
    did not show that its injury was fairly traceable to defendants’
    challenged conduct, but rather relied on speculation upon
    speculation to connect its injury of the Raiders leaving for
    Las Vegas to the NFL’s entry rule. Judge Bumatay thus
    concurred in the court’s judgment and joined Parts I, II, and
    III.B of the majority opinion.
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                 5
    COUNSEL
    Michael M. Fay (argued), James W. Quinn, Jenny H. Kim,
    and Emily Burgess, Berg & Androphy, New York, New
    York; Bruce L. Simon, Pearson Simon & Warshaw, LLP, San
    Francisco, California; Clifford H. Pearson, Michael H.
    Pearson and Thomas J. Nolan, Pearson Simon & Warshaw,
    LLP, Sherman Oaks, California; Barbara Jean Parker, Maria
    Bee, and Malia McPherson, Office of the City Attorney,
    Oakland, California, for Plaintiff-Appellant City of Oakland.
    Daniel B. Asimow (argued) and Kenneth G. Hausman,
    Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP, San Francisco,
    California; Jonathan I. Gleklen, Arnold & Porter Kaye
    Scholer LLP, Washington, D.C.; for Defendant-Appellee The
    Oakland Raiders.
    John E. Hall, Gregg H. Levy, Derek Ludwin, and Benjamin J.
    Razi, Covington & Burling LLP, Washington, D.C., for
    Defendants-Appellees The National Football League and all
    NFL Clubs other than The Oakland Raiders.
    Makan Delrahim Assistant Attorney General; Michael F.
    Murray, Deputy Assistant Attorney General; Daniel E. Haar
    and Jeffrey D. Negrette, Attorneys; Antitrust Division, United
    States Department of Justice, Washington, D.C.; for Amicus
    Curiae United States of America.
    6          CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    OPINION
    TASHIMA, Circuit Judge:
    Plaintiff City of Oakland (the “City”) alleges that the
    National Football League (“NFL”) and its thirty-two member
    teams (collectively, “Defendants”) have “created artificial
    scarcity in their product (NFL teams), and then used that
    scarcity . . . to demand supra-competitive prices from host
    cities.” First Am. Compl. (“FAC” or “complaint”) FAC ¶ 1.1
    It further alleges that, “[w]hen Oakland could not pay those
    prices, Defendants punished the city: they voted to allow the
    Raiders to move to Las Vegas, which left Oakland without an
    NFL team and caused significant losses to Oakland.” FAC
    ¶ 2. The City contends that Defendants’ conduct amounts to
    an unreasonable restraint of trade in violation of § 1 of the
    Sherman Act, 
    15 U.S.C. § 1
    , on two independent bases: First,
    because it constitutes an unlawful group boycott, and second,
    because it constitutes an unlawful horizontal price-fixing
    scheme. The district court dismissed the City’s Sherman Act
    claim for failure to state a claim upon which relief may be
    granted. See City of Oakland v. Oakland Raiders, 
    445 F. Supp. 3d 587
    , 606 (N.D. Cal. 2020); Fed. R. Civ. P. 12(b)(6).
    We affirm.
    We agree with the district court that the City has failed to
    allege a group boycott. A group boycott occurs when
    multiple producers refuse to sell goods or services to a
    particular consumer. Although the City alleges collective
    1
    The NFL is “an association of ‘separately owned professional
    football teams.’” In re Nat’l Football League’s Sunday Ticket Antitrust
    Litig., 
    933 F.3d 1136
    , 1144 (9th Cir. 2019) (quoting Am. Needle, Inc. v.
    Nat’l Football League, 
    560 U.S. 183
    , 187 (2010)).
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                    7
    action (i.e., that the other NFL teams supported the Raiders’
    boycott), it has not alleged a group boycott. The City has
    alleged only that a single producer—the Raiders—refused to
    deal with the City.
    The City’s horizontal price fixing theory fails as well. To
    plead a Sherman Act claim, a private plaintiff must show that
    it is a proper party to pursue the claim—a requirement known
    as antitrust standing. Although buyers who pay collusive
    overcharges (direct purchasers) ordinarily have antitrust
    standing to challenge a horizontal price-fixing scheme,
    buyers, like the City, who are priced out the market—and
    hence do not purchase the product or pay the
    overcharge—ordinarily do not. A nonpurchaser’s injury is
    less direct than the injuries of actual purchasers and highly
    speculative: we cannot know whether, in the absence of
    Defendants’ restrictions on output, the nonpurchaser would
    have made a purchase and, if so, under what terms. In
    addition, the City’s damages are highly speculative and
    would be exceedingly difficult to calculate. We therefore
    agree with the district court that the City has failed to allege
    antitrust standing on its horizontal price fixing theory of
    liability.
    8          CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    I.2
    In 1995, the Oakland Raiders professional football team
    signed an agreement to play in the Oakland-Alameda County
    Coliseum (“Coliseum”). FAC ¶ 102. Under the terms of the
    agreement, the Raiders leased the Coliseum for a period of
    sixteen years, with an annual rent of $50,000; the City offered
    the Raiders a $31.9 million relocation and operating loan; the
    City committed up to $10 million toward the construction of
    a new training facility; the City offered up to $85 million
    toward stadium modernization efforts; and the Raiders agreed
    to a $1 surcharge on ticket sales, with the proceeds to benefit
    Oakland public schools and other public services. FAC
    ¶ 102. The Raiders extended the lease in 2009 and again in
    2014. FAC ¶¶ 107, 112.
    In the years that followed, the City negotiated with the
    Raiders in an unsuccessful attempt to keep the team in
    Oakland. In 2014, the City proposed donating land to the
    Raiders for a new stadium. FAC ¶ 113. In 2015, the City
    proposed a $500 million renovation of the Coliseum, to which
    the City would have contributed significantly. FAC ¶ 113.
    In 2016, the City supported a proposal to build a new
    $1.3 billion stadium in Oakland, financed by $350 million in
    public funds, $400 million from an investment group led by
    former NFL players Ronnie Lott and Rodney Peete, and $500
    2
    Because the district court dismissed the City’s Sherman Act claim
    under Rule 12(b)(6) of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure, we recite the
    facts as they appear in the City’s complaint. See Padilla v. Yoo, 
    678 F.3d 748
    , 751 n.1 (9th Cir. 2012) (“We emphasize that this factual background
    is based only on the allegations of the plaintiffs’ complaint. Whether the
    plaintiffs’ allegations are in fact true has not been decided in this
    litigation, and nothing we say in this opinion should be understood
    otherwise.”).
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                9
    million from the Raiders. FAC ¶ 121. The City alleges that
    the Raiders and the NFL engaged in these negotiations in bad
    faith. According to the complaint, “[t]he Raiders, the NFL,
    and ultimately, the vast majority of NFL Clubs, were just
    stringing Oakland along as part of their collusive scheme to
    relocate the Raiders.” FAC ¶ 23.
    In 2017, the Raiders filed an application with the NFL to
    relocate the team to Las Vegas. FAC ¶ 124. The NFL teams
    voted thirty-one to one to approve the relocation. FAC ¶ 132.
    The complaint alleges that the move benefitted the Raiders
    and the other NFL teams alike. The Raiders moved to a new,
    $1.9 billion stadium in Las Vegas, financed by $750 million
    in public funds, FAC ¶¶ 5, 149, and the team’s enterprise
    value more than doubled to $3 billion, FAC ¶¶ 5, 63. The
    other teams, meanwhile, divided a $378 million relocation fee
    paid by the Raiders, FAC ¶ 66, and, due to revenue sharing
    among NFL teams, stand to share in “new television rights in
    a new geographic territory, new merchandising, new
    intellectual property and game receipts from an ultra-luxury
    $1.9 billion stadium,” FAC ¶¶ 4, 66.
    In 2018, the City commenced this action against the NFL,
    the Raiders, and the other thirty-one NFL teams, alleging an
    antitrust violation under § 1 of the Sherman Act, 
    15 U.S.C. § 1
    , as well as breach of contract and unjust enrichment
    claims under California law. FAC ¶¶ 218–42. The complaint
    seeks declaratory and monetary relief, including treble
    damages under § 4 of the Clayton Act, 
    15 U.S.C. § 15
    (a).
    With respect to the Sherman Act claim, which is the focus
    of this appeal, the complaint alleges that
    10       CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    [t]he relevant market in this action is the
    market for hosting NFL teams.                  The
    consumers in this market are all Host Cities
    offering, and all cities and communities that
    are willing to offer (i.e., potential Host Cities),
    home stadia and other support to major league
    professional football teams in the geographic
    United States. The product in this market is
    the NFL team, as a hosted entity.
    FAC ¶ 189. The City alleges that this market is
    anticompetitive because the NFL limits both the number of
    teams and the freedom of teams to relocate: NFL rules
    permit neither league expansion nor team relocation without
    the approval of three-fourths of the NFL’s teams. FAC ¶ 66.
    The complaint further alleges that these policies and practices
    artificially restrict the number of teams, driving up the prices
    demanded of and paid by host cities. As incumbent and
    aspiring host cities compete with one another, they are forced
    to pay supracompetitive prices to retain or acquire teams,
    usually in the form of publicly financed stadia. The
    complaint alleges that in a competitive market—with more
    teams and fewer restrictions on relocation—teams would
    instead compete for host cities, driving down prices:
    “Because all viable locations would have a team, team
    owners would not be able to make threats about leaving their
    current Host Cities. In fact, the tables would take a dramatic
    turn: teams actually would compete for financially viable
    locations.” FAC ¶ 47 (quoting R. Fort, Market Power in Pro
    Sports: Problems and Solutions, 13–14, in The Economics of
    Sports (W. Kern ed., 2000)). The complaint maintains that,
    “[i]n a competitive market, demanding a new stadium would
    be a risky move for any team owner: the Host City could
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                11
    reject the demand and seek out a new team willing to play in
    the existing stadium.” FAC ¶ 145.
    The City’s contention that, in a competitive market, the
    Raiders would have stayed in Oakland rests on three
    premises. First, the City alleges that there would be more
    NFL teams in a competitive market. According to the
    complaint, Defendants “artificially restrict the supply of its
    product (NFL teams) even though consumer demand in the
    market could support greater output (more teams).” FAC ¶ 9.
    “[F]ocusing on factors of wealth and population,” the City
    contends that “the current NFL could support as many as
    42 teams in the United States.” FAC ¶ 43. Second, the City
    asserts that Oakland is a highly attractive market:
    A recent economic analysis conducted by
    Dr. Daniel Rascher, Professor and Director of
    Academic Programs for the Sport
    Management Program at the University of San
    Francisco, commissioned by Oakland focused
    on which U.S. cities, currently without an
    NFL team, best reflect the demographic and
    financial conditions of existing Host Cities
    and are the best prospects for new NFL
    franchises. The winner? Oakland. Focusing
    on total population, real income, percentage of
    NFL “super fans,” and existing stadia support,
    Oakland was the highest rated city for NFL
    expansion.
    FAC ¶ 138. Third, the City alleges that “without the NFL’s
    cartel structure and rigid control over output (league
    expansion), the Raiders would have had virtually no
    relocation ‘extortion’ threat to exercise.” FAC ¶ 92.
    12       CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    The City contends that Defendants’ conduct violates the
    Sherman Act on horizontal price-fixing and group boycott
    theories. First, the City contends that Defendants have
    engaged in a group boycott, also known in antitrust law as a
    concerted refusal to deal. The complaint alleges that “[t]he
    decision to remove a team from a Host City, combined with
    the decision to deny that same City a new expansion
    franchise, constitutes a collective refusal to deal with, or a
    group boycott of, the City.” FAC ¶ 140. Second, the City
    contends that Defendants, as a cartel, have engaged in a
    classic horizontal price-fixing scheme. FAC ¶ 146. By
    “constrain[ing] the supply of NFL teams,” the NFL “is
    driving up the price of hosting an NFL team far beyond the
    marginal costs of operating an NFL team and far beyond the
    price that would be found in a competitive marketplace.”
    FAC ¶¶ 145–46.
    The complaint asserts that the City lost the Raiders for
    two reasons. First, the City alleges that it was priced out of
    the market: “Because it could not pay Defendants’
    supra-competitive prices, Oakland lost the Raiders and any
    chance to host an NFL team.” FAC ¶ 51. Second, because
    Defendants believed moving the Raiders to Las Vegas was in
    their economic interest, they refused to negotiate with the
    City in good faith.
    The complaint alleges that Defendants’ conduct—and the
    loss of the Raiders—has injured the City in several ways:
    lost investment value arising from the tens of millions of
    dollars the City borrowed to improve the Coliseum and build
    a training facility, FAC ¶¶ 201–03; lost income, including the
    $1 ticket surcharge dedicated to public education and the
    rental monies the Raiders paid for use of the Coliseum, FAC
    ¶¶ 204–05; lost tax revenues from ticket sales, concessions,
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                   13
    stadium parking, player compensation, and merchandising
    associated with Raiders games, FAC ¶¶ 206–10; and
    devaluation of the Coliseum property, which the City and
    Alameda County jointly own, FAC ¶¶ 211–17.
    The district court dismissed the City’s Sherman Act claim
    with prejudice under Rule 12(b)(6) and declined to exercise
    supplemental jurisdiction over the state-law claims. The
    court concluded that the City’s alleged injuries were too
    speculative to confer antitrust standing because the City “had
    not plausibly alleged that, but for the limited number of
    teams, Oakland would still have an NFL team.” City of
    Oakland, 445 F. Supp. 3d at 601. The court also rejected the
    City’s group boycott theory on the ground that the City had
    “not alleged that any NFL team besides the Raiders has
    refused to deal with Oakland, or that the NFL has prohibited
    any team from dealing with Oakland.” Id. at 605–06.
    Following the entry of judgment, the City timely appealed.
    II.
    “Dismissal for failure to state a claim is reviewed de
    novo.” Barrett v. Belleque, 
    544 F.3d 1060
    , 1061 (9th Cir.
    2008) (per curiam). “To survive a motion to dismiss, a
    complaint must contain sufficient factual matter, accepted as
    true, to ‘state a claim to relief that is plausible on its face.’”
    Ashcroft v. Iqbal, 
    556 U.S. 662
    , 678 (2009) (quoting Bell Atl.
    Corp. v. Twombly, 
    550 U.S. 544
    , 570 (2007)). “A claim has
    facial plausibility when the plaintiff pleads factual content
    that allows the court to draw the reasonable inference that the
    defendant is liable for the misconduct alleged.” 
    Id.
    “Antitrust standing is a question of law reviewed de novo.”
    Am. Ad Mgmt., Inc. v. Gen. Tel. Co. of Cal., 
    190 F.3d 1051
    ,
    1054 (9th Cir. 1999).
    14         CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    III.
    A. Article III Standing
    We begin by addressing Defendants’ argument that the
    City lacks Article III standing.3 To establish constitutional
    standing, “a plaintiff must show (i) that he suffered an injury
    in fact that is concrete, particularized, and actual or imminent;
    (ii) that the injury was likely caused by the defendant; and
    (iii) that the injury would likely be redressed by judicial
    relief.” TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, 
    141 S. Ct. 2190
    , 2203
    (2021) (citing Lujan v. Defs. of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    ,
    560–61 (1992)).
    Defendants focus on the second requirement, contending
    that the City’s “purported injury cannot ‘fairly . . . be traced’
    to the NFL’s rules requiring existing teams to approve league
    expansion,” because the City relies on “a long and speculative
    chain of causation.” Specifically, Defendants emphasize that
    the City does not “allege that any team sought to play in the
    NFL and was denied admission,” “that if there were an
    additional team, it would have played in Las Vegas thereby
    foreclosing the Raiders’ move there,” “that if there were
    additional teams and one of them might have played in Las
    Vegas, the Raiders would have stayed in Oakland rather than
    move to another city with a more attractive stadium or better
    economics,” or “that it made any effort to attract an existing
    franchise or new expansion team to replace the Raiders in
    3
    Although Defendants did not challenge the City’s constitutional
    standing in the district court, the issue “may be raised at any time, even for
    the first time on appeal.” DBSI/TRI IV Ltd. P’ship v. United States,
    
    465 F.3d 1031
    , 1038 (9th Cir. 2006).
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                 15
    Oakland since learning in 2016 of the Raiders’ plans to
    leave.”
    We agree with Defendants that the City relies on a
    somewhat speculative chain of causation. As we explain in
    Part III.C, infra, this fact plays a significant role in our
    analysis of the City’s statutory standing. To establish
    constitutional standing, however, the City need not establish
    to a certainty that, but for Defendants’ challenged conduct, it
    would have retained the Raiders or acquired another team. It
    need only plausibly allege that, but for that conduct, there is
    a “substantial probability” that it would have done so. See
    Warth v. Seldin, 
    422 U.S. 490
    , 504 (1975); Nat’l Fam. Farm
    Coal. v. U.S. Env’t Prot. Agency, 
    966 F.3d 893
    , 908 (9th Cir.
    2020); Legal Aid Soc’y of Alameda Cnty. v. Brennan,
    
    608 F.2d 1319
    , 1334–35 (9th Cir. 1979). That standard is
    satisfied here. The City credibly alleges that Oakland is a
    prime location for an NFL team, that there would be more
    NFL teams in a market driven by consumer demand, and
    that—in a competitive market—teams like the Raiders would
    not be able to use a threat of relocation to demand
    supracompetitive concessions from host cities. Specifically,
    Oakland is an incumbent host city. FAC ¶ 1. The City
    further alleges that in the absence of Defendants’ challenged
    actions (i.e., in a competitive market), there would be more
    teams in the NFL FAC ¶¶ 1, 9, 39, 43–44, 67, 69, 197, 199;
    that in the absence of Defendants’ challenged actions,
    Defendants would not be able to threaten relocation, FAC
    ¶¶ 16, 145, or demand supracompetitive prices from host
    cities, FAC ¶¶ 5, 10, 14, 47, 49, 57, 149, 198; that Oakland
    was willing and able to pay competitive prices to retain the
    Raiders, FAC ¶¶ 4, 65, 121–22, 128–31; that Oakland is a
    highly desirable host city for an NFL team, FAC ¶¶ 5, 26.
    127,138; that NFL relocation policies favor a team’s home
    16         CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    territory over relocation, FAC ¶¶ 21, 89–90, 167; that the
    Raiders were financially successful in Oakland, received
    significant financial support from the City, and had one of the
    most loyal fan bases in the NFL, FAC ¶ 22; that Oakland lost
    the Raiders solely because it was unable to pay
    supracompetitive prices, FAC ¶¶ 51, 133, 150–51; and that,
    in a competitive market, the Raiders would have stayed in
    Oakland or Oakland would have landed another team, FAC
    ¶¶ 16, 92.
    These allegations are sufficiently plausible to allege that
    there is a “substantial probability” that the Raiders would
    have stayed in Oakland if not for Defendants’ challenged
    conduct. This is not a case in which the plaintiff’s theory of
    standing is either “counterintuitive” or premised on “a ‘highly
    attenuated chain of possibilities.’” California v. Texas,
    
    141 S. Ct. 2104
    , 2119 (2021) (quoting Clapper v. Amnesty
    Int’l USA, 
    568 U.S. 398
    , 410 (2013)).4
    4
    Defendants’ reliance on City of Rohnert Park v. Harris, 
    601 F.2d 1040
     (9th Cir. 1979), is misplaced. There, the city’s assertion that a
    regional shopping center would have been developed in the city absent the
    defendants’ challenged conduct was “entirely speculative.” 
    Id. at 1045
    .
    That is not the case here.
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                         17
    B. Group Boycott5
    As stated above, the complaint alleges a violation of the
    Sherman Act on two alternative theories—horizontal price
    fixing and group boycott. The district court rejected the
    group boycott theory on the ground that the City “has not
    alleged that any NFL team besides the Raiders has refused to
    deal with Oakland, or that the NFL has prohibited any team
    from dealing with Oakland or set any ‘agreed terms’ that
    Oakland must meet to attract a new or different team.” City
    of Oakland, 445 F. Supp. 3d at 605–06. The City contends
    that the complaint adequately states a claim on a group
    boycott theory because it alleges that “it is the NFL owners
    5
    “The classic ‘group boycott’ is a concerted attempt by a group of
    competitors at one level to protect themselves from competition from
    non-group members who seek to compete at that level”—something that
    is not alleged here. Phil Tolkan Datsun, Inc. v. Greater Milwaukee
    Datsun Dealers’ Advert. Ass’n, 
    672 F.2d 1280
    , 1284 (7th Cir. 1982)
    (quoting Smith v. Pro Football, Inc., 
    593 F.2d 1173
    , 1178 (D.C. Cir.
    1978)); see also Phillip E. Areeda & Herbert Hovenkamp, Antitrust Law:
    An Analysis of Antitrust Principles and Their Application ¶¶ 2003i, 2200a
    (4th and 5th eds. 2013–2020) (“Areeda & Hovenkamp”). “The term
    group boycott,” however, “is in reality a very broad label for divergent
    types of concerted activity,” Phil Tolkan Datsun, 
    672 F.2d at 1285
    (quoting Mackey v. Nat’l Football League, 
    543 F.2d 606
    , 619 (8th Cir.
    1976), overruled on other grounds as stated in Eller v. Nat’l Football
    League Players Ass’n, 
    731 F.3d 752
    , 755 (8th Cir. 2013)), and the
    Supreme Court has recognized group boycotts aimed directly at
    consumers, e.g., St. Paul Fire & Marine Ins. Co. v. Barry, 
    438 U.S. 533
    ,
    544 (“[T]he Sherman Act makes it an offense for [businessmen] to agree
    among themselves to stop selling to particular customers.” (alteration in
    original) (quoting Kiefer-Stewart Co. v. Joseph E. Seagram & Sons, 
    340 U.S. 211
    , 214 (1951), overruled on other grounds by Copperweld Corp.
    v. Indep. Tube Corp., 
    467 U.S. 752
     (1984))). For purposes of our analysis,
    therefore, we assume that a concerted refusal to deal with a consumer or
    consumers states a cognizable “group boycott” claim under § 1 of the
    Sherman Act.
    18       CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    acting collectively (not individual teams) who decide whether
    and where a particular team may relocate and . . . Defendants
    made a ‘collective decision to move the Raiders to Las
    Vegas.’” We disagree.
    Collective action in support of an individual boycott is not
    the same as a group boycott. The City’s allegations, taken as
    true, show only that the Raiders boycotted the City and that
    the other Defendants supported the Raiders’ boycott. The
    other teams did not “boycott” the City. The FAC does not
    allege that they, or any of them, refused to “sell” to the City.
    The group boycott cases upon which the City relies
    involve circumstances in which multiple producers refused to
    sell their goods or services to consumers. In FTC v. Superior
    Court Trial Lawyers Ass’n., 
    492 U.S. 414
     (1990), the
    Supreme Court recognized a viable group boycott claim
    where “a group of lawyers agreed not to represent indigent
    criminal defendants in the District of Columbia Superior
    Court until the District of Columbia government increased the
    lawyers’ compensation.” 
    Id.
     at 422–23 (emphasis added).
    The Supreme Court explained that these lawyers, as a group,
    had engaged in “a concerted refusal to serve an important
    customer in the market for legal services.” 
    Id. at 423
    . And
    in St. Paul Fire & Marine Insurance Co., 438 U.S. at 543–45,
    the Court recognized a group boycott claim where three
    medical malpractice insurers refused to offer coverage to the
    policyholders of a fourth insurer in order to force the
    policyholders into agreeing to coverage by the fourth insurer
    on the fourth insurer’s terms. As these cases reflect, a group
    boycott occurs when “two or more competitors . . . refuse to
    do business with one firm.” Group boycott, Black’s Law
    Dictionary (11th ed. 2019) (emphasis added); see Seagood
    Trading Corp. v. Jerrico, Inc., 
    924 F.2d 1555
    , 1568 (11th Cir.
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                        19
    1991) (“[T]he distinguishing feature of such cases is a
    plurality of refusals to deal by different parties.”); Constr.
    Aggregate Transp., Inc. v. Fla. Rock Indus., Inc., 
    710 F.2d 752
    , 773 (11th Cir. 1983) (“[I]t is important to remember that
    a concerted refusal to deal essentially is an agreement among
    two or more parties that each will engage in an individual
    refusal to deal with a particular customer or customers. In the
    case before us, however, we have only one business entity
    refusing to deal with the plaintiff . . . . That [a second
    business entity] may have instigated [the first entity’s] refusal
    to deal does not create the plurality of ‘refusals’ necessary for
    the arrangement to be called a group boycott.”). Here, the
    other NFL teams simply supported the Raiders’ refusal to
    deal with the City, but did not themselves refuse to do
    business with the City. The City, therefore, although it has
    alleged an individual boycott, has not alleged a group
    boycott.6
    The City alternatively contends that it has alleged a group
    boycott because the other teams supported the Raiders’
    relocation threat by agreeing among themselves that they
    would neither relocate to Oakland nor allow an expansion
    team to locate there if the City refused to accede to the
    Raiders’ demands for a new stadium. FAC ¶ 140. A law
    review article upon which the City relies describes this group
    boycott theory as follows:
    [G]iven the artificial scarcity of teams and the
    difficulty of new entry, threats to relocate are
    6
    We do not decide whether the collective action of which the City
    complains could be actionable under § 1 of the Sherman Act on any other
    theory. We hold only that the conduct of which the City complains does
    not allege a group boycott.
    20       CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    more than the action of an individual
    economic entity; rather, every threat to
    relocate is also an implicit threat of a
    concerted boycott. A group boycott exists
    when individual economic actors agree to
    refrain from dealing with another entity in
    order to gain some competitive advantage, in
    this case the advantage of favorable subsidies
    to build or renovate new stadiums. . . .
    Translation: If Houston does not pay the price
    demanded by the Oilers, no other NFL team
    will deal with the city.
    David Haddock, Tonga Jacobi & Matthew Sag, League
    Structure & Stadium Rent-Seeking—the Role of Antitrust
    Revisited, 
    65 Fla. L. Rev. 1
    , 50–51 (2013). This may be a
    viable theory of group boycott (a question we need not
    reach), but it fails here because the City has not proffered any
    specific allegations to suggest that such an agreement in fact
    existed in this case. As the district court explained, “[c]ertain
    commentators’ view that ‘a threat by an individual team to
    relocate may comprise an implicit threat of concerted boycott’
    does not, without more, show that such a boycott in fact
    occurred.” City of Oakland, 445 F. Supp. 3d at 606. The
    City’s allegation is therefore too speculative to cross the
    plausibility threshold.
    C. Horizontal Price Fixing: Antitrust Standing
    Because the City’s group boycott theory fails to state a
    claim, the viability of the City’s Sherman Act claim turns on
    its horizontal price-fixing theory. As set forth below, we hold
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                        21
    that the City’s price-fixing theory fails as well, for lack of
    antitrust standing.7
    Section 1 of the Sherman Act prohibits unreasonable
    restraints of trade. In re NFL’s Sunday Ticket Antitrust Litig.,
    933 F.3d at 1149.8 Actions for damages, like this one, are
    authorized by § 4 of the Clayton Act.9 “Despite the apparent
    breadth of the phrase ‘any person,’ the Supreme Court has
    held that Congress did not intend to afford a remedy to
    everyone injured by an antitrust violation simply on a
    showing of causation.” Knevelbaard Dairies v. Kraft Foods,
    Inc., 
    232 F.3d 979
    , 987 (9th Cir. 2000). Instead, the plaintiff
    must have “antitrust standing.” 
    Id.
    We have “identified certain factors for determining
    whether a plaintiff who has borne an injury has antitrust
    standing”:
    7
    Because we affirm the dismissal of the City’s group boycott theory
    on other grounds, we need not address whether our analysis of antitrust
    standing with respect to the City’s price-fixing theory applies as well to
    the City’s group boycott theory.
    8
    The City does not contend that the challenged practices are per se
    unlawful.
    9
    Section 4(a) provides:
    [A]ny person who shall be injured in his business or
    property by reason of anything forbidden in the antitrust
    laws may sue therefor . . . and shall recover threefold
    the damages by him sustained, and the cost of suit,
    including a reasonable attorney’s fee.
    
    15 U.S.C. § 15
    (a).
    22         CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    (1) the nature of the plaintiff’s alleged injury;
    that is, whether it was the type the antitrust
    laws were intended to forestall;
    (2) the directness of the injury;
    (3) the speculative measure of the harm;
    (4) the risk of duplicative recovery; and
    (5) the complexity in apportioning damages.
    Am. Ad Mgmt., 
    190 F.3d at 1054
    .10
    10
    These five factors are illustrative rather than exhaustive. In R.C.
    Dick Geothermal Corp. v. Thermogenics, Inc., 
    890 F.2d 139
    , 146 (9th Cir.
    1989) (en banc), for example, we articulated five different factors that,
    although largely overlapping with those identified in American Ad
    Management, included two factors that we did not specifically mention in
    American Ad Management: “[t]he specific intent of the alleged
    conspirators” and “[t]he existence of other, more appropriate plaintiffs.”
    We nevertheless rely on the American Ad Management factors to frame
    our analysis. Among other virtues, they adhere closely to the factors
    identified by Areeda and Hovenkamp in their influential treatise on
    antitrust law:
    Unlike the United States government, which is
    authorized to sue anyone who violates the antitrust
    laws, a private antitrust plaintiff must show “standing”
    to sue. In addition to proving everything that would
    entitle the government to relief, the private plaintiff
    must also show (1) that the acts violating the antitrust
    laws caused—or, in an equity case, threatened to
    cause—it injury-in-fact to its “business or property;”
    (2) that this injury is not too remote or duplicative of
    the recovery of a more directly injured person; (3) that
    such injury is “antitrust injury,” which is defined as the
    kind of injury that the antitrust laws were intended to
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                            23
    “To conclude that there is antitrust standing, a court need
    not find in favor of the plaintiff on each factor.” Id. at 1055.
    “Instead, we balance the factors,” id., recognizing that
    “[a]ntitrust standing involves a case-by-case analysis,”
    Amarel v. Connell, 
    102 F.3d 1494
    , 1507 (9th Cir. 1996) (as
    amended). “Most cases will find some factors tending in
    favor of standing (to a greater or lesser degree), and some
    against (also in varying degrees), and a court may find
    standing if the balance of factors so instructs.” L.A. Mem’l
    Coliseum Comm’n v. Nat’l Football League, 
    791 F.2d 1356
    ,
    1363 (9th Cir. 1986). Nevertheless, the first factor—antitrust
    injury—is mandatory. See Am. Ad Mgmt., 
    190 F.3d at 1055
    (“[T]he Supreme Court has noted that ‘[a] showing of
    antitrust injury is necessary, but not always sufficient, to
    establish standing under § 4.’” (second alteration in original)
    (quoting Cargill, Inc. v. Monfort of Colo., Inc., 
    479 U.S. 104
    ,
    110 n.5 (1986))); see also Big Bear Lodging Ass’n v. Snow
    Summit, Inc., 
    182 F.3d 1096
    , 1102 (9th Cir. 1999) (“To have
    standing to bring an antitrust case, a plaintiff must
    demonstrate that the harm the plaintiff has suffered or might
    suffer from the practice is an ‘antitrust injury,’ that is, an
    ‘injury of the type the antitrust laws were intended to prevent
    and that flows from that which makes defendants’ acts
    unlawful.’” (quoting Atl. Richfield Co. v. USA Petroleum Co.,
    prevent and “flows from that which makes defendants’
    acts unlawful”; and, in a damage case, (4) that the
    damages claimed or awarded measure such injury in a
    reasonably quantifiable way.
    Areeda & Hovenkamp ¶ 335 (footnotes omitted). Although American Ad
    Management did not mention the requirement that a plaintiff show injury
    to its “business or property,” that is indisputably an additional requirement
    for antitrust standing under § 4 of the Clayton Act. See 
    15 U.S.C. § 15
    (a);
    Hawaii v. Standard Oil Co. of Cal., 
    405 U.S. 251
    , 260–61 (1972).
    24        CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    
    495 U.S. 328
    , 334 (1990))). Applying these principles here,
    we conclude that, although the City has alleged antitrust
    injury, it has not alleged antitrust standing generally.
    1. Antitrust Injury
    We have identified “four requirements for antitrust injury:
    (1) unlawful conduct, (2) causing an injury to the plaintiff,
    (3) that flows from that which makes the conduct unlawful,
    and (4) that is of the type the antitrust laws were intended to
    prevent.” Am. Ad Mgmt., 
    190 F.3d at 1055
    .
    The City has adequately alleged the first
    requirement—unlawful conduct. The City alleges that
    Defendants, operating as a cartel, have restricted the number
    of NFL teams and demanded supracompetitive prices from
    host cities. These allegations are sufficient. See, e.g., NCAA
    v. Bd. of Regents of Univ. of Okla., 
    468 U.S. 85
    , 107–08
    (1984) (“Restrictions on price and output are the paradigmatic
    examples of restraints of trade that the Sherman Act was
    intended to prohibit.”); Rebel Oil Co. v. Atl. Richfield Co.,
    
    51 F.3d 1421
    , 1434 (9th Cir. 1995) (“If the plaintiff puts forth
    evidence of restricted output and supracompetitive prices,
    that is direct proof of . . . injury to competition . . . .”).
    The City has adequately alleged the second
    requirement—injury—as well. This requirement is satisfied
    where the plaintiff shows that it “stands to suffer, not gain,”
    from the defendant’s unlawful conduct. Am. Ad Mgmt.,
    
    190 F.3d at 1056
    . That is the case here. The City plausibly
    alleges that, but for Defendants restrictions on output, the
    Raiders would have stayed in Oakland, or another NFL team
    would have located there. The City alleges, moreover, that
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                   25
    the loss of the Raiders has caused the City economic loss,
    including reduced tax revenues.
    Under the third requirement, “[i]t is not enough that the
    plaintiff’s claimed injury flows from the unlawful conduct.
    An antitrust injury must ‘flow[ ] from that which makes
    defendants’ acts unlawful.’” 
    Id.
     (second alteration in
    original). The complaint again satisfies this requirement
    here. The City’s alleged injuries stem from the loss of the
    Raiders, and the City plausibly alleges that the Raiders left
    Oakland because of Defendants’ allegedly unlawful
    restriction on output. The City also credibly asserts that, in
    a world with more teams, there might have already been a
    team in Las Vegas, blocking the Raiders’ move there, and
    that, in a competitive market with more teams, the Raiders
    would not have had the leverage to demand supracompetitive
    concessions from the City. The City’s alleged injuries,
    therefore, flow from that which allegedly makes Defendants’
    conduct unlawful: limiting output below levels dictated by
    consumer demand.
    “Finally, the plaintiff’s injury must be ‘of the type the
    antitrust laws were intended to prevent.’” 
    Id. at 1057
    . “The
    Supreme Court has made clear that injuries which result from
    increased competition or lower (but non-predatory) prices are
    not encompassed by the antitrust laws.” 
    Id.
     Thus, “[i]f the
    injury flows from aspects of a defendant’s conduct that are
    beneficial or neutral to competition, there is no antitrust
    injury, even if the defendant’s conduct is illegal.” Theme
    Promotions, Inc. v. News Am. Mktg. FSI, 
    546 F.3d 991
    , 1003
    (9th Cir. 2008). Here, Defendants argue that the complaint
    fails this test because the City lost the Raiders “through the
    process of competition . . . . Loss of the Raiders to a city that
    26       CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    made a better offer is not injury arising from a reduction in
    competition.”
    Defendants’ argument stands antitrust law on its head.
    “[T]he principal objective of antitrust policy is to maximize
    consumer welfare by encouraging firms to behave
    competitively,” Areeda & Hovenkamp ¶ 100, not, as
    Defendants suggest, to maximize producers’ welfare by
    increasing competition among consumers. As the Supreme
    Court recently reminded us, “[t]he goal [of the Sherman Act]
    is to distinguish between restraints with anticompetitive effect
    that are harmful to the consumer and restraints stimulating
    competition that are in the consumer’s best interest.” NCAA
    v. Alston, 141 S. Ct. at 2151 (first alteration in original)
    (emphasis added) (quoting Ohio v. Am. Express Co., 
    138 S. Ct. 2274
    , 2284 (2018)). Thus, the fact that the City lost the
    Raiders as a result of enhanced competition among
    consumers does not negate the City’s antitrust injury.
    On the contrary, the proper focus is on whether the City’s
    injuries flow from a decrease in competition among
    producers. They do. The City alleges that it was injured
    because Defendants reduced output and increased prices.
    These are precisely the kinds of harms to competition that the
    antitrust laws were intended to prevent. See Pool Water
    Prod. v. Olin Corp., 
    258 F.3d 1024
    , 1034 (9th Cir. 2001)
    (“Antitrust injury ‘means injury from higher prices or lower
    output, the principal vices proscribed by the antitrust laws.’”
    (quoting Nelson v. Monroe Reg’l Med. Ctr., 
    925 F.2d 1555
    ,
    1564 (7th Cir. 1991))). Thus, the City has alleged antitrust
    injury.
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                   27
    2. The Directness of the Injury
    The second factor in the antitrust standing inquiry “looks
    to whether [the plaintiff’s] alleged injury was the direct result
    of [the defendant’s] allegedly anticompetitive conduct.” Am.
    Ad Mgmt., 
    190 F.3d at 1058
    . This factor focuses on “the
    chain of causation between [the plaintiff’s] injury and the
    alleged restraint” of trade. 
    Id.
     “The harm may not be
    ‘derivative and indirect’ or ‘secondary, consequential, or
    remote.’” Theme Promotions, 546 F.3d at 1004 (first quoting
    Amarel, 102 F.3d at 1511, and then quoting Kolling v. Dow
    Jones & Co., 
    187 Cal. Rptr. 797
    , 808 (Ct. App. 1982)).
    This factor cuts against the City’s antitrust standing. In
    a horizontal price-fixing scheme like the one the City alleges
    here, members of a cartel “collude on price and output in an
    effort to maximize their profits.” Areeda & Hovenkamp
    ¶ 391b1. Producers restrict output and raise prices, and
    consumers—direct purchasers from the cartel—pay an
    overcharge (a supracompetitive price) to purchase the
    producers’ goods or services. These direct purchasers plainly
    have “standing to recover any collusive overcharges.” 
    Id.
    Their injuries are direct and certain. The same cannot be
    said, however, of consumers, like the City, that “were priced
    out of the market.” 
    Id.
     As Areeda & Hovenkamp explain:
    The difficulty lies in identifying those who are
    injured by the deadweight welfare loss.
    Anyone could claim that he or she would have
    purchased at the competitive price but was
    priced out of the market as a result of the
    anticompetitive pricing. Thus, courts are
    likely to find that the claims of those who
    28       CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    refused to purchase at the cartel price are
    speculative.
    
    Id.
    The Tenth Circuit confronted this situation in Montreal
    Trading Ltd. v. Amax Inc., 
    661 F.2d 864
     (10th Cir. 1981).
    There, the plaintiff alleged that the defendants unlawfully
    limited potash production to drive up prices. 
    Id. at 865
    . The
    plaintiff brought an antitrust action against the producers,
    arguing that as a result of the defendants’ actions it was
    unable to buy potash that it could have resold at a profit. 
    Id. at 867
    . The Tenth Circuit held that the plaintiff lacked
    antitrust standing. 
    Id. at 868
    . First, the court noted that “[a]
    price fixing conspiracy is certainly ‘aimed’ at those who
    purchase the product at the inflated price; their injury is more
    direct and more proximately caused than those who are
    unable to purchase due to product scarcity.” 
    Id.
     Second, the
    plaintiff’s injury was too speculative:
    [W]hen, as here, the nonpurchaser has no
    prior course of dealing with any defendant, we
    will remain unsure about many things,
    including: whether the purchase would have
    been made from one of the conspirators or
    from one of their competitors; what quantity
    would have been purchased; what price would
    have been paid; and at what price resale
    would have occurred. In the instant case we
    would also be uncertain whether the potash
    producers would have inquired about the
    identity of [the plaintiff’s] customers before
    making the sale; whether, if asked, [the
    plaintiff] could have truthfully replied that
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                       29
    part of the purchase was allocated to
    customers outside North Korea; whether [the
    plaintiff] would have had the funds needed to
    make the purchase; and whether an alleged
    shortage of railroad cars would have aborted
    the transaction.
    
    Id. at 868
    .11
    The same concerns exist here too. First, the City’s
    injuries are less direct than those of actual purchasers, such as
    the cities of Las Vegas and Los Angeles, each of which
    recently acquired NFL teams, presumably by agreeing to
    supracompetitive prices. Indeed, the existence of these more
    direct victims is an additional factor counseling against the
    City’s standing. See Ass’n of Wash. Pub. Hosp. Dists. v.
    Philip Morris Inc., 
    241 F.3d 696
    , 701 (9th Cir. 2001); R.C.
    Dick Geothermal Corp., 
    890 F.2d at 146
    ; Montreal Trading,
    
    661 F.2d at 868
    .12
    Second, the City’s contention that, in the absence of
    Defendants’ challenged practices, it would have retained the
    Raiders (or acquired another team) is too speculative to
    establish antitrust standing. As the district court explained:
    The Court . . . previously held that Oakland
    had not plausibly alleged that, but for the
    11
    The Tenth Circuit did not adopt a bright-line rule precluding
    nonpurchasers who have been priced out of a market from establishing
    antitrust standing. See Montreal Trading, 
    661 F.2d at 868
    . We agree.
    12
    The City’s injuries would also be less direct than those of NFL
    expansion teams denied entry into the league.
    30    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    limited number of teams, Oakland would still
    have an NFL team. The Court identified the
    following “incomplete list of issues that might
    be relevant” but were not addressed in
    Oakland’s original complaint:
    (1) whether there are additional potential
    owners willing to establish new teams if
    the NFL allowed them to do so;
    (2) whether such potential owners would
    have based a team in Las Vegas before the
    Raiders decided to relocate there;
    (3) whether the Raiders would still have
    left Oakland for another city if the NFL
    allowed additional teams; (4) if the
    Raiders might still have left, whether an
    additional team would have been
    established in Oakland to replace the
    Raiders; or (5) whether Oakland has made
    any effort to attract an existing team other
    than the Raiders or to establish a new
    expansion team to replace the Raiders.
    Oakland’s first amended complaint alleges
    none of those things. Instead, it repeats an
    allegation from the original complaint that
    entrepreneur and basketball-team-owner Mark
    Cuban believes Oakland is a better site for the
    Raiders than Las Vegas, and adds an
    allegation that an economic analysis
    commissioned by Oakland determined that, of
    U.S. cities without NFL teams, Oakland “best
    reflect[s] the demographic and financial
    conditions of existing Host Cities” and has
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS               31
    “the best prospects for new NFL franchises.”
    But Oakland still has not plausibly alleged
    what the playing field would look like if the
    NFL allowed more than thirty-two teams. In
    that hypothetical world, what would prevent
    Las Vegas from offering a more attractive
    deal, as in fact occurred? Would another team
    have already existed in Las Vegas? Would
    the Raiders have gone elsewhere if Las Vegas
    already had a team? If the Raiders left, would
    a different team play in Oakland? The first
    amended complaint answers none of those
    questions.
    City of Oakland, 445 F. Supp. 3d at 601 (second alteration in
    original) (citations omitted).
    We agree. The City has not alleged—and there is no way
    of knowing—what would have occurred in a more
    competitive marketplace. Would new teams have joined the
    NFL? Would they have found Oakland attractive? Would
    the Raiders have left Oakland in any event? Would the
    Raiders have stayed in the Bay Area, but not in Oakland?
    What price would the City have paid to retain the Raiders or
    acquire another team? Would the City have been willing and
    able to pay a competitive price? There are too many
    speculative links in the chain of causation between
    Defendants’ alleged restrictions on output and the City’s
    alleged injuries. Cf. Associated Gen. Contractors of Cal.,
    Inc. v. Cal. State Council of Carpenters, 
    459 U.S. 519
    , 540
    (1983) (“In this case, the chain of causation between the
    Union’s injury and the alleged restraint in the market for
    construction subcontracts contains several somewhat vaguely
    defined links.”).
    32         CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    The City complains that it should not be required “to
    reconstruct the hypothetical marketplace absent a defendant’s
    anticompetitive conduct.” (Quoting United States v.
    Microsoft Corp., 
    253 F.3d 34
    , 79 (D.C. Cir. 2001).)13
    Nonpurchasers who are priced out of the market, however,
    present a special problem, due to the speculative nature of the
    harm. We require a reasonable level of certainty before we
    will confer antitrust standing on such consumers. See
    Montreal Trading, 
    661 F.2d at 868
    ; Areeda & Hovenkamp
    ¶ 391b1.
    The City alternatively contends that it has standing under
    Montreal Trading because it can show “a regular course of
    dealing with the conspirators.” 
    661 F.2d at 868
    . The City’s
    past dealings with the Raiders, however, do not establish a
    regular course of dealing. And, under Montreal Trading, a
    “regular course of dealing” exception makes sense only if that
    course of dealing occurred in a competitive market. But that
    is not what the FAC alleges. The City alleges that its course
    of dealing with the Raiders occurred in an anticompetitive
    market, which does not resolve the many uncertain links in
    the chain of causation. Thus, even assuming that Montreal
    Trading is the law of the Circuit, an issue we need not decide,
    the City would still lack standing.
    13
    In Microsoft, 
    253 F.3d 34
    , the plaintiffs were required to prove that
    Microsoft’s anticompetitive practices (i.e., foreclosing Netscape’s and
    Java’s distribution channels) caused Microsoft to maintain its monopoly
    power in the operating system market. In that context, and relying on
    Areeda & Hovenkamp, the D.C. Circuit reasoned that courts could infer
    causation from the fact that a defendant has engaged in anticompetitive
    conduct that reasonably appears capable of making a significant
    contribution to maintaining monopoly power. 
    Id. at 79
    . The court did not
    address the question presented here.
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                   33
    In sum, this factor—the directness of the injury—supports
    the conclusion that the City has not alleged antitrust standing.
    3. The Speculative Measure of Harm
    So too does the third factor, which considers whether the
    City’s “damages are only speculative.” Am. Ad Mgmt.,
    
    190 F.3d at 1059
    . For the reasons just discussed, we do not
    know whether the City would have retained an NFL team,
    whether that team would have been the Raiders or another
    team, where that team would have played, or what price the
    City would have paid for the privilege of having an NFL
    team. Because we do not know whether the City would have
    retained the Raiders, we cannot know whether it would have
    avoided the harm it alleges.
    Furthermore, even if the City could demonstrate that it
    would have retained the Raiders (or acquired another team),
    its damages—“lost investment value,” “tax revenues
    associated with Raiders games,” and “devaluation of the
    Coliseum property”—would be exceedingly difficult to
    calculate. Cf. 
    id. at 1060
     (“[W]e do not find the calculation
    of damages in this case to be exceedingly complicated.”);
    Areeda & Hovenkamp ¶ 335c5 (“Once it becomes
    clear—especially early in the litigation—that damage
    measurements will be unduly speculative, the courts generally
    dismiss the damage suit.”). In this respect too, this case is far
    afield from the conventional horizontal price-fixing case in
    which an actual purchaser seeks to recover collusive
    overcharges.
    In sum, like the second factor, the third factor supports
    that the City has not adequately alleged antitrust standing.
    34        CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    4. Remaining Factors
    The remaining factors do not undermine the City’s claim
    of antitrust standing. This case does not appear to present a
    risk of duplicative recoveries. Nor does it appear that this
    case would require an apportionment of damages.
    Nevertheless, in light of the indirectness of the City’s injuries,
    the existence of more direct victims, the speculative measure
    of harm, and the difficulty in calculating damages, we are
    persuaded that the City lacks antitrust standing to pursue its
    horizontal price-fixing theory. As the district court observed,
    the circumstances presented here “render[] this case
    particularly unsuitable as a novel expansion of antitrust
    liability to non-purchaser plaintiffs.” City of Oakland, 445 F.
    Supp. 3d at 603.
    IV.
    We hold that the district court properly dismissed the
    City’s Sherman Act claim for failure to state a claim upon
    which relief may be granted. The City’s group boycott theory
    fails to state a claim because the City has not alleged that
    more than one team refused to deal with the City. The City’s
    horizontal price-fixing theory fails because the City has not
    adequately alleged antitrust standing. Although the City has
    alleged antitrust injury, it has not alleged with sufficient
    certainty that it would have purchased the product (i.e., that
    the Raiders would have stayed in Oakland), and under what
    terms, in a hypothetical competitive market.
    The judgment of the district court, therefore, is
    AFFIRMED.
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                 35
    BUMATAY, Circuit Judge, concurring:
    The City of Oakland brings two theories of antitrust
    liability against the NFL, the Raiders, and the NFL’s other
    31 teams. We’ve called one theory the “group boycott” claim
    and the other a “price-fixing” claim. As the majority
    correctly holds, both theories come up short. In their view,
    Oakland gets to suit up and take the field of Article III
    standing but can’t run the claims into the endzone of antitrust
    liability. Upon further review, however, I think, the majority
    fumbles the standing analysis on the price-fixing claim. I
    would hold that this claim is too speculative to satisfy the
    threshold of constitutional standing and so must be benched
    even before kickoff. On the group boycott claim, I fully
    agree with the majority that Oakland stays on the field but
    ultimately fails to score on the merits. In short, we should
    have dismissed Oakland’s price-fixing claim on Article III
    standing grounds and denied the group boycott claim on legal
    sufficiency grounds. I thus concur in the court’s judgment
    and join Parts I, II and III.B of the majority opinion.
    I.
    Rigorous enforcement of the Article III standing
    requirements ensures that federal courts stay in their lanes.
    See Spokeo, Inc. v. Robins, 
    578 U.S. 330
    , 338 (2016). By
    disclaiming jurisdiction to resolve certain disputes, we
    confine ourselves to “a proper[] judicial role.” 
    Id.
    (simplified). To meet Article III standing, a party must
    establish (1) an injury in fact; (2) traceability; and
    (3) redressability. 
    Id.
     And meeting standing on one claim
    doesn’t mean standing on other claims. See DaimlerChrysler
    Corp. v. Cuno, 
    547 U.S. 332
    , 352–53 (2006). Thus, courts
    must look to see if a party has standing for each claim
    36       CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    brought—regardless of standing on another claim. 
    Id.
     The
    party seeking access to federal court bears the burden of
    showing standing. Spokeo, 578 U.S. at 338.
    Here, Oakland asserts two independent theories of
    antitrust liability under § 1 of the Sherman Act, 
    15 U.S.C. § 1
    .
    First, the “price-fixing” claim. Oakland alleges that the
    NFL has created a horizontal price-fixing scheme with its
    entry requirements for new teams. An NFL rule dictates that
    ¾ of NFL owners must vote to approve a new football team’s
    entry into the league. Such a rule, says Oakland, inflates the
    price of hosting teams for cities by artificially restricting the
    supply of teams.
    Second, we have the “group boycott” claim. Oakland
    contends that the NFL and its teams have started an
    anticompetitive boycott against the City by collectively
    refusing to deal with it. In the City’s view, the NFL’s
    franchises are punishing Oakland for declining to pay the
    high costs and benefits to keep the Raiders in the Bay Area.
    Oakland fails to meet its burden of establishing Article III
    standing for the price-fixing claim, while the group boycott
    claim fails on the merits.
    A.
    Oakland’s price-fixing claim drops the ball on the second
    element—traceability. A party satisfies this element by
    showing that its injury “is fairly traceable to the challenged
    conduct of the defendant.” Spokeo, 578 U.S. at 338.
    Traceability requires “a causal connection between the injury
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                37
    and the conduct complained of.” Lujan v. Defs. of Wildlife,
    
    504 U.S. 555
    , 560 (1992). So with traceability, we ask: “Is
    the line of causation between the illegal conduct and injury
    too attenuated?” Allen v. Wright, 
    468 U.S. 737
    , 752 (1984).
    Our court has held that “a causal chain does not fail
    simply because it has several links, provided those links are
    not hypothetical or tenuous.” Nw. Requirements Utils. v.
    FERC, 
    798 F.3d 796
    , 806 (9th Cir. 2015) (simplified).
    Traceability then can’t “rely on conjecture about the behavior
    of other parties.” Ecological Rts. Found. v. Pac. Lumber Co.,
    
    230 F.3d 1141
    , 1152 (9th Cir. 2000). And when a standing
    theory “rests on a highly attenuated chain of possibilities,”
    “far stronger evidence” is required to establish traceability.
    California v. Texas, 
    141 S. Ct. 2104
    , 2119 (2021)
    (simplified).
    Oakland’s price-fixing claim relies on speculation upon
    speculation to connect its injury to the NFL’s entry rule.
    Basically, Oakland tries to connect its injury—the Raiders
    leaving for Las Vegas—to the NFL’s ¾ approval rule for new
    franchises. Specifically, Oakland argues that the entry rule
    allows NFL teams to demand excessive payments from host
    cities, causing the Raiders to move to Las Vegas and costing
    Oakland an NFL home team. As a result, Oakland argues it
    would not have been injured under more lenient rules for
    entry into the NFL. Essentially, Oakland’s causal chain looks
    like this:
    38       CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    But Oakland relies on speculation every step of the way.
    Start with Step One. Under Oakland’s theory, in a pro-
    competitive hypothetical world, the NFL would replace its
    current ¾ approval rule with a more competitive approach,
    which would allow for easier admission. We aren’t told what
    this new rule might be or how it might meet the threshold of
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                  39
    improved competition. Instead, we must imagine a
    hypothetical rule that would somehow accomplish what
    Oakland seeks.
    Step Two—engage in more speculation about
    hypothetical teams. To get to the next step in the chain of
    traceability, we need to speculate that this new rule would
    entice new football franchises to apply to the NFL. Here, it’s
    unclear how potential football franchises would react to this
    hypothetical new rule. Oakland assumes that more franchises
    would apply, given a more lenient admission rule. But there
    is no evidence that these imaginary franchises would have a
    significant incentive to apply under, say, a ½ owner approval
    rule rather than the existing ¾ rule. As the NFL accurately
    notes, Oakland cannot point to a single instance of a team
    being denied entry into the NFL under the existing rule. And
    under either regime, a potential franchise would have to
    convince a significant portion of NFL owners that its
    admission would not hurt the sport or the quality of
    competition. In fact, the only evidence Oakland can muster
    on this point is a 2004 estimate that the NFL could support up
    to 42 teams in the United States. But such evidence comes
    well short of showing that more franchises would be likely to
    apply simply because the NFL could hypothetically support
    more of them. Article III requires “far stronger evidence”
    here. California v. Texas, 141 S. Ct. at 2119.
    Step Three—consider a hypothetical world where the
    NFL admits new teams from the crop of applicants. The
    problem at this step is that the composition of sports leagues
    is inherently difficult to predict. Sports leagues can’t have an
    infinite number of teams. For example, a sports league has to
    weigh increasing the number of teams in its roster against
    other factors such as scheduling constraints, the quality of
    40       CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    competition, and existing contracts and commitments with
    players. See Phillip E. Areeda & Herbert Hovenkamp,
    Antitrust Law: An Analysis of Antitrust Principles and Their
    Application, ¶ 2214(b) (5th ed. 2021) (“Areeda &
    Hovenkamp”) (“[A] sports league requires limits on the
    number of teams in order that scheduling and ranking can be
    coordinated.”). Oakland would have us overlook these
    realities and speculate that the NFL would admit more teams
    if it had a more permissive entry rule and received more
    applications.
    Step Four—calculate the probabilities that a new
    imaginary NFL team would play in Las Vegas. Only if
    another NFL team played at Allegiant Stadium would the
    Raiders be blocked from leaving Oakland—the precise injury
    alleged here. But as Oakland acknowledges, it can’t provide
    any evidence that Las Vegas would have hosted an NFL team
    prior to the Raiders under supposedly pro-competitive rules.
    As a result, Oakland again asks this court to make another
    speculative leap—this time that a hypothetical franchise
    admitted under hypothetical rules would have chosen Las
    Vegas as its home. But we generally do not “endorse
    standing theories that rest on speculation about the decisions
    of independent actors.” Clapper v. Amnesty Int’l, USA,
    
    568 U.S. 398
    , 414 (2013); see also Ecological Rts. Found.,
    
    230 F.3d at 1152
     (“The issue in the causation inquiry is
    whether the alleged injury can be traced to the defendant’s
    challenged conduct, rather than to that of some other actor not
    before the court.”).
    Finally, Step Five—assume there would be enough new
    franchises admitted by the NFL to prevent other host cities
    from attracting the Raiders away from Oakland. At this final
    step, we must speculate whether another city would have still
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                41
    attracted the Raiders with a more appealing stadium or better
    economics. Oakland does put forward evidence from an
    economic expert stating that Oakland is an attractive location
    for an NFL franchise. But ultimately, Oakland asks us to
    conjecture about how hypothetical franchises would have
    weighed hypothetical proposals from hypothetical host cities.
    So Oakland’s expert can’t save the speculative house of cards
    from tumbling down.
    In sum, Oakland’s price-fixing theory requires us to make
    layers of speculative judgments to connect the allegedly
    unlawful conduct (the NFL’s entry rule) to the alleged injury
    (the Raiders’ decision to leave Oakland). But Article III
    standing requires more than an elaborate string of
    speculations. It requires the alleged injury to be fairly
    traceable to the unlawful conduct. Spokeo, 578 U.S. at 338.
    Oakland’s loss of the Raiders is too remote and too
    conjectural to be traceable to the NFL’s entry process. I
    would hold that Oakland failed to establish Article III
    standing on its price-fixing claim.
    The majority looks past these speculations by determining
    that Oakland has shown a “substantial probability” of
    standing. Maj. Op. 16. The majority argues that, despite a
    “somewhat speculative chain of causation,” there is a
    substantial probability that the Raiders would have stayed in
    Oakland but for the NFL’s entry rule. Maj. Op. 15. But our
    court has made clear that causation cannot “be too
    speculative, or rely on conjecture about the behavior of other
    parties.” Ecological Rts. Found., 
    230 F.3d at 1152
    . That is
    precisely what Oakland’s price-fixing claim does. It
    speculates about events at every step of the causal
    chain—relying on inferences about what unknown,
    independent parties would do under hypothetical
    42         CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS
    circumstances. As a result, I would dismiss Oakland’s price-
    fixing claim for failure to establish Article III standing. 1
    B.
    Oakland, however, does establish Article III standing for
    its group boycott claim. Oakland satisfies the standing
    requirements for the group boycott claim because it directly
    connects the unlawful conduct to the alleged injury. Unlike
    the price-fixing claim, the premise of the group boycott claim
    is that the NFL franchises themselves colluded to keep
    Oakland from hosting an NFL team. The football teams
    sought to punish Oakland, the theory goes, after the City
    refused to make new payments or improvements to its
    stadium to keep the Raiders. Thus, the injury of a lack of an
    NFL franchise is closely tied to the alleged unlawful conduct
    of group boycotting. In other words, there is a direct handoff
    from the anticompetitive action to the alleged injury. As a
    result, Oakland establishes Article III standing on its group
    boycott claim.
    1
    In reaching the merits of the price-fixing claim, the majority imports
    a Tenth Circuit case into our court—Montreal Trading Ltd. v. Amax Inc.,
    
    661 F.2d 864
     (10th Cir. 1981). In Montreal Trading, the Tenth Circuit
    denied antitrust standing to non-purchasers on the theory that their injuries
    were too uncertain. 
    Id. at 868
    . I question, however, whether Montreal
    Trading is relevant here. Montreal Trading explained that nonpurchasers
    should be denied standing to sue “when they lack a past course of dealing
    with the conspirators.” 
    Id.
     But Oakland, the Raiders, and the NFL have
    a long course of dealing, making the applicability of the Montreal Trading
    rule suspect. Moreover, the majority applies Montreal Trading without
    claiming to adopt it as a “bright-line rule” for our circuit. Maj. Op. 29
    n.11. But doing so just further complicates an already complicated area
    of law. The majority should have punted on this issue.
    CITY OF OAKLAND V. OAKLAND RAIDERS                  43
    Looking at the merits, I agree with the majority that
    Oakland fails to demonstrate an antitrust violation on this
    claim. In short, Oakland can only show that the Raiders
    refused to deal with the City—not that the other franchises
    joined the Oakland boycott. Moreover, since Oakland failed
    to plead a Sherman Act violation, I do not reach whether
    Oakland has sufficiently shown antitrust standing. Antitrust
    standing is distinct from Article III standing. See Associated
    Gen. Contractors of Cal., Inc. v. Cal. State Council of
    Carpenters, 
    459 U.S. 519
    , 535 n.31 (1983). Unlike Article
    III standing, courts have discretion to skip antitrust standing
    and go right to the merits. See Areeda & Hovenkamp, ¶ 335f
    (“When a court concludes that no violation has occurred, it
    has no occasion to consider [antitrust] standing.”). So there’s
    no need to address Oakland’s antitrust standing on this claim,
    but that doesn’t mean the City has it. See Maj. Op. 21 n.7.
    II.
    So, after further review, we must affirm the district
    court’s dismissal of Oakland’s suit. While Oakland doesn’t
    need to provide indisputable evidence of traceability to win
    access to federal courts, the City can’t rely on a Hail Mary of
    speculation to satisfy standing. In my view, we should have
    blown the whistle on jurisdiction rather than letting that claim
    play out on the merits.