William Tedards, Jr. v. Doug Ducey ( 2020 )


Menu:
  •                  FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    WILLIAM PRICE TEDARDS, JR.;                No. 19-16308
    MONICA WNUK; BARRY HESS;
    LAWRENCE LILIEN; ROSS TRUMBLE,                D.C. No.
    Plaintiffs-Appellants,       2:18-cv-04241-
    DJH
    v.
    DOUG DUCEY, Governor of Arizona,             OPINION
    in his official capacity; MARTHA
    MCSALLY,
    Defendants-Appellees.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Arizona
    Diane J. Humetewa, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted November 13, 2019
    Pasadena, California
    Filed February 27, 2020
    Before: MILAN D. SMITH, JR., ERIC D. MILLER,
    and DANIEL P. COLLINS, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge Milan D. Smith, Jr.;
    Concurrence by Judge Collins
    2                      TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    SUMMARY *
    Civil Rights
    The panel affirmed the district court’s dismissal of an
    action, brought following the death of Arizona Senator John
    McCain in 2018, challenging the constitutionality of an
    Arizona statute that governs appointments and elections in
    the aftermath of a vacancy in the United States Senate.
    Senator McCain died on August 25, 2018, three days
    before the primary election. Over four years remained in his
    Senate term. Consistent with the requirements of Arizona
    Revised Statute § 16-222(D), as amended, Governor Doug
    Ducey (Republican) issued a writ of election to fill Senator
    McCain’s vacant seat in November 2020, and appointed a
    temporary Senator until the winner of the November 2020
    election assumed office. The panel noted that by that time,
    Arizona will have had a temporary appointee, currently
    Senator Martha McSally, chosen by the Governor, for over
    two years. Plaintiffs, Arizona voters and a would-be Senate
    candidate, alleged that the November 2020 vacancy election
    date and the 27-month interim appointment duration violated
    the time constraints implicit in the Seventeenth Amendment
    and impermissibly burdened their right to vote, as protected
    by the First and Fourteenth Amendments. Plaintiffs further
    challenged Arizona’s statutory mandates that the Governor
    must make a temporary appointment and must choose a
    member of the same party as the Senator who vacated the
    office.
    *
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It
    has been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                        3
    The panel noted that in 1913, the Seventeenth
    Amendment fundamentally changed the structure of the
    national government by providing that United States
    Senators be “elected by the people.” Prior to the adoption of
    the Seventeenth Amendment, the Constitution gave the
    power of choosing Senators to the state legislatures. The
    original provision also empowered a State Governor, in the
    event of a vacancy arising during a legislative recess, to
    make a “temporary” appointment pending the next
    legislative session. The Seventeenth Amendment retained
    this vacancy and appointment provision in modified form,
    and it is that portion of the Amendment which the panel
    addressed.
    The panel first considered plaintiffs’ Seventeenth
    Amendment challenge to the November 2020 vacancy
    election date and the 21-month duration of appointed
    representation. The panel noted that the meaning of the
    Seventeenth Amendment has seldom been litigated, and no
    body of doctrine provided robust guidance as to its proper
    interpretation. The panel therefore used multiple modes of
    analysis and sources of authority to decipher the
    Amendment’s meaning. The panel concluded that the text
    of the Seventeenth Amendment conferred some discretion
    upon the States as to both the timing of an election to fill a
    vacancy and the duration of an interim appointment, and that
    the text was ambiguous as to the outer bounds of this
    discretion. The panel did not find that related constitutional
    provisions placed any precise temporal limitations upon
    vacancy elections or appointments under the Seventeenth
    Amendment. The panel’s review of the historical context
    led it to disfavor any interpretation that permitted
    excessively long vacancies, but the panel noted that the
    context did not reveal any precise constraints. The
    legislative history did not provide a clear view of the textual
    4                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    interpretation possessed by the members of Congress who
    voted in favor of the Seventeenth Amendment. The state
    statutes enacted after the Seventeenth Amendment’s
    ratification favored, but did not compel, an interpretation of
    the Seventeenth Amendment that left States broad discretion
    to schedule a vacancy election up until the next general
    election preceded by some reasonable period of time in
    which to hold the election.
    The panel next turned to the four prior cases that have
    interpreted the Seventeenth Amendment’s Vacancy Clause
    at any length, and concluded that plaintiffs’ challenge was
    foreclosed by binding precedents. Thus, the panel noted that
    the Supreme Court had spoken to the meaning of the relevant
    Seventeenth Amendment provisions in two cases. First, the
    panel noted that in Valenti v. Rockefeller, a three-judge
    district court, in considering a 29-month Senate seat vacancy
    following Robert F. Kennedy’s assassination, had conducted
    a detailed analysis of the relevant Seventeenth Amendment
    provisions in both a majority and a dissenting opinion, and
    had dismissed plaintiffs’ complaints. The Supreme Court
    then summarily affirmed the majority’s dismissal. 292 F.
    Supp. 851 (W.D.N.Y. 1968), summarily aff’d, 
    393 U.S. 405
    (1969) (per curiam). Second, in Rodriguez v. Popular
    Democratic Party, the Supreme Court opined on a related
    constitutional question in part based on a particular
    interpretation of the result it had summarily affirmed in
    Valenti, and also endorsed some of the reasoning of the
    Valenti three-judge district court majority. 
    457 U.S. 1
    , 10–
    12 (1982). The panel concluded that it was bound by
    Rodriguez’s 29-month interpretation of the binding result of
    Valenti. The panel further interpreted Rodriguez to endorse
    only a State’s discretion to postpone a vacancy election until
    a general election.
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                        5
    Turning to the challenged Arizona law, the panel held
    that the timing provision of A.R.S. § 16-222(D) as applied
    to the McCain vacancy was a permissible exercise of the
    State’s discretion under the Seventeenth Amendment.
    Accordingly, neither Governor Ducey’s writ of election nor
    Senator McSally’s appointment was a violation thereof. The
    panel therefore affirmed the district court’s dismissal of
    Counts I and II of plaintiffs’ amended complaint to the extent
    that those counts related to the timing of the vacancy election
    and the duration of appointed representation under the
    Seventeenth Amendment.
    Addressing plaintiffs’ First and Fourteenth Amendment
    challenges, the panel assumed, without deciding, that
    regulation of the timing of a vacancy election was at least a
    “burden” for purposes of review under Burdick v. Takushi,
    
    504 U.S. 428
    (1992). However, because the panel held that
    the Seventeenth Amendment authorized at least as long of
    an interval before the vacancy election as was challenged
    here, it concluded that the burden thereby posed was
    necessarily a “reasonable” one. The panel held that plaintiffs
    failed to plausibly allege that the timing of the vacancy
    election was not justified by “important” state interests.
    Given that the burden of this timing on plaintiffs’ right to
    vote was “reasonable” and “nondiscriminatory,” the
    “important” state interests were sufficient to affirm the
    dismissal of plaintiffs’ First and Fourteenth Amendment
    challenges.
    The panel held that plaintiffs lacked standing to
    challenge the appointment mandate and same-party
    restrictions in A.R.S. § 16-222(D). The panel held that given
    that Arizona’s legislature empowered the state governor to
    make temporary appointments, Governor Ducey
    unquestionably had the authority to appoint Martha McSally
    6                    TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    as a temporary replacement for Senator McCain. Plaintiffs
    alleged no facts rebutting Governor Ducey’s statement on
    appeal that he would have appointed Senator McSally
    regardless of the requirement that he name an interim
    Senator and regardless of the requirement that the appointee
    share Senator McCain’s political party. Accordingly, the
    panel held that plaintiffs suffered no injuries from the
    appointment of Senator McSally that were fairly traceable to
    § 16-222(C), and suffered no injury attributable to the mere
    existence of § 16-222(C) since it had not affected them. This
    lack of traceability was fatal to standing.
    Concurring in part and concurring in the judgment,
    Judge Collins agreed with the majority that the district court
    properly dismissed plaintiffs’ various constitutional
    challenges to the Arizona statute governing the filling of
    senatorial vacancies, but in Judge Collins’s view the issues
    raised in this case could be readily resolved under existing
    precedent. Judge Collins therefore did not join the analysis
    as to the meaning of the Seventeenth Amendment in
    section I(A) of the “Analysis” section of the majority’s
    opinion. Instead, he joined only Parts I(B), II, and III of the
    “Analysis” section, and concurred in the judgment.
    COUNSEL
    Michael P. Persoon (argued) and Thomas H. Geoghegan,
    Despres Schwartz and Geoghegan Ltd., Chicago, Illinois;
    Michael Kielsky, Udall Shumway, Mesa, Arizona; for
    Plaintiffs-Appellants.
    Dominic E. Draye (argued), Greenberg Traurig LLP,
    Phoenix, Arizona; Anni Lori Foster, General Counsel,
    Office of the Governor, Phoenix, Arizona; Brett W. Johnson
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                        7
    and Colin Ahler, Snell & Wilmer LLP, Phoenix, Arizona;
    James E. Tyrrell III, Venable LLP, Washington, D.C.; for
    Defendants-Appellees.
    Spencer G. Scharff, Scharff PLLC, Phoenix, Arizona, for
    Amici Curiae Vox Populi Foundation and Arizona
    Advocacy Network Foundation.
    Theresa Amato and Carlton Mosley, Shearman & Sterling
    LLP, Washington, D.C., for Amici Curiae Professors Erwin
    Chemerinsky, Helen Hershkoff, Alexander Keyssar,
    Lawrence Lessig, and Sanford Levinson.
    Michael A. Curtis, Law Offices of Michael A. Curtis,
    Phoenix, Arizona; Robert S. Lynch and Caroline G. Lynch,
    Robert S. Lynch & Associates, Phoenix, Arizona; for Amici
    Curiae Irrigation and Electrical Districts’ Association of
    Arizona (IEDA) and Arizona Municipal Power Users’
    Association (AMPUA).
    OPINION
    M. SMITH, Circuit Judge:
    In 1913, the Seventeenth Amendment fundamentally
    changed the structure of our national government by
    providing that United States Senators be “elected by the
    people.” U.S. Const. amend. XVII para. 1. Prior to the
    adoption of the Seventeenth Amendment, the Constitution
    gave the power of choosing Senators to the state legislatures.
    
    Id. art. I,
    § 3 (amended 1913). The original provision also
    empowered a State Governor, in the event of a vacancy
    arising during a legislative recess, to make a “temporary”
    appointment pending the next legislative session. 
    Id. The 8
                       TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    Seventeenth Amendment retained this vacancy and
    appointment provision in modified form, and it is that
    portion of the Amendment with which we are primarily
    concerned in this case. The relevant portion of the
    Amendment reads as follows:
    When vacancies happen in the representation
    of any State in the Senate, the executive
    authority of such State shall issue writs of
    election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That
    the legislature of any State may empower the
    executive thereof to make temporary
    appointments until the people fill the
    vacancies by election as the legislature may
    direct.
    U.S. Const. amend. XVII para. 2.
    Arizona Senator John McCain died in August 2018,
    leaving vacant one of Arizona’s two U.S. Senate seats.
    Pursuant to Arizona law, the people of Arizona will fill the
    vacancy by election in November 2020. By that time,
    Arizona will have had a “temporary” appointee, currently
    Senator Martha McSally, for over two years. Plaintiffs,
    Arizona voters and a would-be Senate candidate, challenge
    the constitutionality of the Arizona statute that governs
    appointments and elections in the aftermath of a Senate
    vacancy.
    First, Plaintiffs argue that the November 2020 vacancy
    election date and the 27-month interim appointment duration
    violate the time constraints implicit in the Seventeenth
    Amendment. The district court dismissed this challenge for
    failure to state a claim, finding no authority for invalidating
    a state statute on this basis. We affirm. Although we find
    Plaintiffs’ interpretation a possible one based on the text and
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                         9
    history of the Seventeenth Amendment, we conclude that it
    is foreclosed by binding precedents.
    Second, Plaintiffs argue that the November 2020
    vacancy election date impermissibly burdens their right to
    vote as protected by the First and Fourteenth Amendments.
    The district court also dismissed this challenge for failure to
    state a claim, finding that important State regulatory interests
    justify what is a reasonable and nondiscriminatory
    restriction on Plaintiffs’ right to vote. We agree, and affirm.
    Third and finally, Plaintiffs challenge Arizona’s
    statutory mandates that the Governor must make a temporary
    appointment and must choose a member of the same party as
    the Senator who vacated the office. Plaintiffs argue that the
    appointment       mandate      violates   the    Seventeenth
    Amendment’s specified separation of State powers, as well
    as the Fourteenth Amendment and the Elections Clause. The
    district court dismissed this challenge for failure to state a
    claim, rejecting Plaintiffs’ interpretation of the relevant
    Seventeenth Amendment language. Plaintiffs argue that the
    same-party restriction violates the Qualifications Clauses in
    the Seventeenth Amendment and other constitutional
    provisions, as well as the First Amendment and the Elections
    Clause. The district court dismissed this challenge for lack
    of standing. The district court found no harm on the basis of
    representation by a Republican and no redressability where
    the Republican Governor would appoint a Republican
    anyway. We affirm both of these dismissals for lack of
    standing.
    10                       TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    FACTUAL AND PROCEDURAL BACKGROUND
    I. Factual Background
    In November 2016, the people of Arizona reelected
    Senator John S. McCain III (Republican) to a sixth term in
    the United States Senate. In July 2017, doctors diagnosed
    Senator McCain with an aggressive brain tumor whose
    victims have only a fourteen-month average survival time. 1
    In May 2018, Governor Ducey signed into law an
    amendment to Arizona’s congressional vacancy statute,
    Arizona Revised Statutes (A.R.S.) § 16-222. See 2018 Ariz.
    Sess. Laws 2308. Pursuant to the amended law, if a Senate
    seat becomes vacant 150 days or fewer before the next
    primary election (or between the primary and the general
    election), the people of Arizona will not fill the vacancy by
    election until the following general election two years later.
    See A.R.S. §§ 16-222(A), (D). 2 The Governor must
    1
    Susan Scutti, Sen. John McCain has brain cancer, aggressive
    tumor     surgically    removed,   CNN      (July   20,     2017),
    https://www.cnn.com/2017/07/19/health/gupta-mccain-glioblastoma/
    index.html.
    2
    As amended, A.R.S. § 16-222(A) provides that “[w]hen a vacancy
    occurs in the office of United States senator . . . , and except as provided
    in subsection D of this section, the vacancy shall be filled at the next
    general election.” 2018 Ariz. Sess. Laws 2308 (emphasis added).
    A.R.S. § 16-222(D) provides that:
    If a vacancy in the office of United States senator
    occurs one hundred fifty days or less before the next
    regular primary election date, . . . the vacancy [will be]
    filled at the second regular general election held after
    the vacancy occurs . . . .
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                              11
    “appoint a person to fill the vacancy” in the interim, 3 who is
    “of the same political party as the person vacating the
    office.” 
    Id. § 16-222(C).
    At the time the legislature passed
    this amendment, the August 2018 primary was already fewer
    than 150 days away. Senator McCain was still serving as
    Senator at that time. 4
    
    Id. at 2308–09.
    In 2018, Arizona law provided for regular primary
    elections “[o]n the tenth Tuesday prior to a general . . . election.” 2009
    Ariz. Sess. Laws 1268, amended by 2019 Ariz. Sess. Laws Ch. 246
    (current version at A.R.S. § 16-201). The 2018 general election was
    scheduled nationally for November 6, 2018. See 2 U.S.C. §§ 1, 7.
    Therefore, Arizona’s primaries were held on August 28, 2018.
    Subtracting 150 days from August 28, 2018, yields a date of March 31,
    2018, which is slightly more than seven months before November 6,
    2018. Arizona has since amended its primary election schedule to make
    the primaries fall earlier in August. See A.R.S. § 16-201 (amended
    2019).
    Prior to the May 2018 amendment, A.R.S. § 16-222 contained no
    special provision for vacancies occurring within a particular time period
    before the next election. A.R.S. § 16-222(A) provided only that “[w]hen
    a vacancy occurs in the office of United States senator . . . , the vacancy
    shall be filled at the next general election.” 2012 Ariz. Sess. Laws 2543,
    amended by 2018 Ariz. Sess. Laws 2308. In the event of a vacancy
    occurring “after the close of petition filing” for the primary, a related
    statute gave the power of candidate nomination to the political party of
    the vacating Senator. A.R.S. § 16-343 (last amended by 2017 Ariz. Sess.
    Laws 959).
    3
    As amended, A.R.S. § 16-222(C) provides that, “except as
    provided in subsection D of this section, [the appointee] shall serve until
    the person elected at the next general election is qualified and assumes
    office.” 2018 Ariz. Sess. Laws 2308 (emphasis added).
    4
    Bill Hutchinson, Sen. John McCain showing ‘maverick’ spirit even
    as he battles brain cancer, ABC News (May 6, 2018),
    https://abcnews.go.com/ABCNews/sen-john-mccain-showing-maverick-
    spirit-battles-brain/story?id=54974427.
    12                    TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    Senator McCain died on August 25, 2018, three days
    before the primary election. 5 Over four years remained in
    his Senate term. Consistent with the requirements of § 16-
    222(D), as amended, Governor Doug Ducey (Republican)
    issued a writ of election to fill Senator McCain’s vacant seat
    in November 2020. Consistent with the requirements of
    § 16-222(C), Governor Ducey appointed former Arizona
    Senator Jon Kyl (Republican) to serve as Senator until the
    winner of the November 2020 election assumed office.
    Senator Kyl made clear that he would not personally seek
    election in 2020. 6
    At the time of these developments, the contest for
    Arizona’s other Senate seat was already on the ballot for
    November 2018. Competing to replace Senator Jeff Flake
    (Republican), who had decided not to seek reelection, were
    Representative Kyrsten Sinema (Democrat) and
    Representative     Martha      McSally      (Republican).
    Representative Sinema won the election with 50.0% of the
    vote compared to Representative McSally’s 47.6%. 7
    In mid-December 2018, Senator Kyl announced that he
    would resign at the end of the year so that a subsequent
    appointee could serve the full two years of the 116th
    5
    Robert D. McFadden, John McCain, War Hero, Senator,
    Presidential Contender, Dies at 81, N.Y. Times (Aug. 25, 2018),
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/25/obituaries/john-mccain-dead.html.
    6
    Jonathan Martin & Danny Hakim, Jon Kyl, Former Senator, Will
    Replace McCain in Arizona, N.Y. Times (Sept. 4, 2018),
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/04/us/politics/arizona-senate-
    mccain.html.
    7
    Green Party candidate Angela Green, who officially endorsed
    Sinema days before the election, received 2.4% of the vote.
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                               13
    Congress and seek election in 2020. 8 Days later, Governor
    Ducey announced that he had appointed Representative
    McSally to succeed Senator Kyl. 9
    At present, Senators Sinema and McSally represent
    Arizona in the United States Senate.
    II. Procedural Background
    In late November 2018, five registered Arizona voters—
    two Democrats, one Independent, one Libertarian, and one
    Republican—filed suit against Governor Ducey and Senator
    Kyl pursuant to 42 U.S.C. § 1983. Plaintiffs alleged that the
    Governor’s implementation of A.R.S. § 16-222 violated
    their constitutional rights under the Seventeenth
    Amendment and several other provisions of the U.S.
    Constitution. Their amended complaint challenged the
    November 2020 date of the vacancy election (Count I), 10 the
    8
    Sean Sullivan & John Wagner, Kyl plans to resign Arizona Senate
    seat, clearing the way for another GOP appointment, Wash. Post (Dec.
    14, 2018), https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/kyl-plans-to-
    resign-arizona-senate-seat-clearing-the-way-for-another-gop-appointment/
    2018/12/14/12bae21e-ffb1-11e8-83c0-b06139e540e5_story.html.
    9
    Press Release, Office of Governor Ducey, Governor Ducey
    Appoints Martha McSally to U.S. Senate (Dec. 18, 2018),
    https://azgovernor.gov/governor/news/2018/12/governor-ducey-appoints-
    martha-mcsally-us-senate.
    10
    Count I alleged that the “delay[]” of the vacancy election until
    November 2020, being “significantly greater than a year” after the
    occurrence of the vacancy, violates Plaintiffs’ right to fill the vacancy by
    election under the Seventeenth Amendment. Count I also alleged that
    this delay, by encompassing more than a “reasonable and brief interim
    period[] necessary to hold an orderly election,” violates Plaintiffs’ right
    to continuous direct representation under the Fourteenth Amendment
    Privileges or Immunities Clause. Count I further alleged that this delay,
    14                       TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    27-month duration and mandatory nature of the interim
    appointment (Count II), 11 and the same-party restriction on
    the interim appointee (Count III). 12 Plaintiff Hess later
    alleged that he sought to be considered for the interim
    appointment, but was barred from consideration as a
    registered Libertarian.
    In late December 2018, Plaintiffs filed a motion for
    preliminary and permanent injunction. Plaintiffs sought an
    order directing that the election to fill the vacancy be held
    “as soon as practicable, and not longer than one year from
    being “just too long” and a “de facto denial of a special election,”
    severely burdens Plaintiffs’ right to vote in violation of the First
    Amendment and the Fourteenth Amendment Equal Protection Clause.
    11
    Count II alleged that, by “mandating” that the Governor make an
    interim appointment, § 16-222(C) violates the Seventeenth
    Amendment’s provision that the state legislature may only “empower”
    the Governor to make an appointment. Count II further alleged that, by
    providing that the people will have appointed representation for
    approximately 27 months, § 16-222(D) violates Plaintiffs rights under
    the Seventeenth Amendment to be subject only to “temporary”
    appointments. Count II also alleged that the 27-month appointment
    duration violates Plaintiffs’ rights under the Fourteenth Amendment
    Privileges or Immunities Clause to have elected representation at all
    times “except for the brief interim periods necessary to conduct an
    orderly election.”
    12
    Count III alleged that, by restricting the Governor’s appointment
    discretion to a person of the same political party as the vacating Senator,
    § 16-222(D) exceeds the state legislature’s authority under the
    Seventeenth Amendment, the Elections Clause, and the Qualifications
    Clause. Count III further alleged that the same-party restriction violates
    Plaintiffs’ First Amendment rights by “giving the imprimatur of state law
    to . . . a particular partisan viewpoint.”
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                               15
    the date the vacancy arose.” Defendants, by then Governor
    Ducey and Senator McSally, moved to dismiss. 13
    In June 2019, after full briefing and oral argument, the
    district court granted Defendants’ motion to dismiss. The
    court dismissed Counts I and II for failure to state a claim.
    The court disagreed that the Seventeenth Amendment
    constrains state discretion as Plaintiffs had alleged with
    regard to the date of the vacancy election, the duration of
    appointed representation, or the mandate that the Governor
    make an appointment. The court also concluded that the
    November 2020 vacancy election date was a reasonable
    burden on Plaintiffs’ First and Fourteenth Amendment right
    to vote and was justified by important state interests. The
    court dismissed Count III for lack of standing. The court
    concluded that any harm attributable to representation by a
    Republican was too speculative to constitute a cognizable
    injury. The court further concluded that redressability was
    lacking because Governor Ducey could keep Senator
    McSally in place even without the statutory same-party
    requirement. Since it found no viable claims, the court
    denied Plaintiffs’ motion for a preliminary and permanent
    injunction.
    13
    Defendants argued that the Constitution gives States broad
    discretion to establish procedures for filling Senate vacancies and that
    § 16-222 complies with the “plain language” of the Seventeenth
    Amendment. They argued that binding precedent allows at least a 29-
    month Senate appointment. They also argued that Arizona’s procedure
    for holding a vacancy election is reasonable, nondiscriminatory, and in
    furtherance of important state interests. Alternately, Defendants argued
    that this case presents a nonjusticiable political question. As to the same-
    party requirement, Defendants argued that the requirement is
    constitutional under both the First Amendment and the Qualifications
    Clause, and that Plaintiffs lack standing to challenge it.
    16                  TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    Plaintiffs timely appealed, and thereafter moved to
    expedite this appeal. We granted Plaintiffs’ motion to
    expedite.
    JURISDICTION AND STANDARD OF REVIEW
    We have jurisdiction pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 1291. We
    review de novo a district court’s grant of a motion to dismiss
    and all constitutional questions. Mahoney v. Sessions, 
    871 F.3d 873
    , 877 (9th Cir. 2017).
    ANALYSIS
    I. Seventeenth Amendment Challenge to Vacancy
    Election Date and Duration of Appointment
    We begin with Plaintiffs’ as-applied Seventeenth
    Amendment challenges to the November 2020 vacancy
    election date and the 27-month duration of appointed
    representation. We consider these two challenges together
    because both require an analysis of what, if any, implicit
    time constraints exist within the Seventeenth Amendment.
    The meaning of the Seventeenth Amendment has seldom
    been litigated, and no body of doctrine provides us with
    robust guidance as to its proper interpretation. We therefore
    undertake here to decipher the Amendment’s meaning using
    multiple modes of analysis and sources of authority. After
    reaching a conclusion regarding that meaning, we turn to the
    law challenged in this case.
    A. Meaning of the Seventeenth Amendment
    The parties hold very different views of the extent to
    which the Seventeenth Amendment restricts state discretion
    regarding the timing of a vacancy election and the duration
    of an interim appointment. Plaintiffs argue that the
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                        17
    Seventeenth Amendment gives States very little
    discretion—that it requires a State to hold a vacancy election
    as quickly after the occurrence of a vacancy as the State
    holds a general election after petition filing. Plaintiffs argue
    that in most cases this means that a vacancy election will be
    held within, and an interim appointment will last no longer
    than, one year. Defendants argue that the Seventeenth
    Amendment gives States very broad discretion—that it does
    not carry any time constraint on vacancy elections or interim
    appointments at all beyond the deadline imposed by the end
    of the vacant term.
    The Supreme Court has spoken to the meaning of the
    relevant Seventeenth Amendment provisions in two cases.
    First, in Valenti v. Rockefeller, a three-judge district court
    conducted a detailed analysis of the relevant provisions in
    both a majority and a dissenting opinion, and the Supreme
    Court summarily affirmed the majority. 
    292 F. Supp. 851
    (W.D.N.Y. 1968), summarily aff’d, 
    393 U.S. 405
    (1969).
    Second, in Rodriguez v. Popular Democratic Party, the
    Supreme Court opined on a related constitutional question in
    part based on a particular interpretation of the result it had
    summarily affirmed in Valenti, and also endorsed some of
    the reasoning of the Valenti three-judge district court
    majority. 
    457 U.S. 1
    , 10–12 (1982).
    Normally, a summary affirmance binds us to the precise
    result affirmed, yet it remains incumbent upon us to give full
    consideration to the issues and articulate our own
    independent analysis. See Anderson v. Celebrezze, 
    460 U.S. 780
    , 784–85 & n.5 (1983); Washington v. Confederated
    Bands and Tribes of the Yakima Indian Nation, 
    439 U.S. 463
    , 476 n.20 (1979). In this instance, the Supreme Court
    has provided some additional analysis of its own, see
    
    Rodriguez, 457 U.S. at 10
    –12, but in an opinion that “did not
    18                       TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    . . . purport to be a thorough examination” of the Seventeenth
    Amendment. District of Columbia v. Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    ,
    623 (2008). We therefore undertake a full analysis here, but
    we do not reach any dispositive interpretive conclusions
    until we come to Rodriguez and consider our analysis in light
    of the reasoning therein.
    Our analysis proceeds as follows, taking inspiration from
    the method by which the Supreme Court analyzed the
    meaning of the then little-litigated Second Amendment in
    District of Columbia v. Heller 14: We begin with a close
    14
    In Heller, the Supreme Court announced its first “thorough
    examination of the Second 
    Amendment.” 554 U.S. at 623
    . Writing for
    the majority, Justice Scalia began with a textual analysis aiming to
    identify the meaning of the Second Amendment as it “would . . . have
    been known to ordinary citizens in the founding generation.” 
    Id. at 576–
    77. In the process of analyzing the text, he considered the natural and
    logical reading of the text on close examination; other uses of identical
    language elsewhere in the Constitution; founding-era dictionary
    definitions; other uses of similar language in such founding-era sources
    as The Federalist Papers and State constitutions; and the historical
    circumstances motivating the founders to codify the Second Amendment
    in the Constitution. 
    Id. at 576–
    600.
    Justice Scalia devoted a second section to greater analysis of the
    contemporary State constitutions codifying a similar right. 
    Id. at 600–
    03. He next considered the Amendment’s drafting history, though he
    expressed doubt about relying on analysis of prior rejected proposals. 
    Id. at 603–05.
    He then considered postratification interpretation, as
    evidenced by commentary, case law, and legislation, both close in time
    to ratification and specifically in the post-Civil War context. 
    Id. at 605–
    19. Finally, he considered “whether any of [the Court’s] precedents
    foreclose[d]” the majority’s interpretation. 
    Id. at 619.
    In that discussion,
    he specifically rejected reliance on United States v. Miller, 
    307 U.S. 174
    (1939), which “did not even purport to be a thorough examination of the
    Second Amendment,” and in which only one party had (only minimally)
    briefed the Amendment’s history. 
    Id. at 623–24
    (discussing).
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                             19
    examination of the Seventeenth Amendment’s text. In
    subsection 1, we attempt to discern the most natural reading
    of the text standing alone. In subsection 2, we consider the
    text in the context of related constitutional provisions.
    Subsection 3 then considers the text in the context of the
    historical circumstances motivating Congress and the
    ratifying States to amend the Constitution. In subsection 4,
    we consider the interpretations of the Seventeenth
    Amendment provided by the sponsor of the final version in
    the Senate and the author of a materially similar version in
    the House. In subsection 5, we consider the interpretations
    evidenced by state legislative enactments in the immediate
    aftermath of the Seventeenth Amendment’s ratification.
    Finally, in subsection 6, we analyze prior cases interpreting
    the relevant portion of the Seventeenth Amendment,
    including and especially Valenti and Rodriguez, and come to
    our ultimate conclusion.
    1. Text
    We begin with the text of the Seventeenth Amendment
    standing alone. The second paragraph of the Seventeenth
    Amendment (hereinafter the Vacancy Clause) comprises
    two subclauses. We refer to the first as the principal clause:
    When vacancies happen in the representation
    of any State in the Senate, the executive
    Writing for four dissenting Justices, Justice Stevens likewise
    focused on “the most natural reading of the Amendment’s text and the
    interpretation most faithful to the history of its adoption.” 
    Id. at 638
    (Stevens, J., dissenting). He nevertheless reached a different conclusion
    from the majority, which he argued was required by Miller. 
    Id. at 637–
    40.
    20                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    authority of such State shall issue writs of
    election to fill such vacancies: . . .
    U.S. Const. amend. XVII para 2. We refer to the second as
    the proviso:
    . . . Provided, That the legislature of any State
    may empower the executive thereof to make
    temporary appointments until the people fill
    the vacancies by election as the legislature
    may direct.
    
    Id. The principal
    clause begins with a trigger: “When
    vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the
    Senate, . . . .” This trigger does not expressly invoke the
    discretion of the state legislature or any other decisionmaker.
    We read the word “when” to denote both “immediately
    after” and “every time that.” Thus, every vacancy
    immediately triggers the Vacancy Clause when it happens.
    The trigger gives no express guidance as to the types of
    events that cause a vacancy to “happen,” but no ambiguity
    on that point is before us. We have no doubt that the death
    of a Senator causes a vacancy to happen.
    The principal clause then directs that “. . . the executive
    authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill
    such vacancies: . . . .” We assume “executive authority”
    refers to a state’s Governor, but we need not consider
    whether a Governor could delegate the relevant authority to
    an executive agency or other executive officer. We interpret
    the word “shall” as imposing a mandatory obligation on the
    Governor. See Zachary D. Clopton & Steven E. Art, The
    Meaning of the Seventeenth Amendment and a Century of
    State Defiance, 107 Nw. U. L. Rev. 1181, 1202 n.79 (2013)
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                         21
    (canvassing uses of the word “shall” in the Constitution, all
    of which are obligatory); accord Judge v. Quinn, 
    612 F.3d 537
    , 547 (7th Cir. 2010) (Judge I), amended by 387 F. App’x
    629 (7th Cir. 2010) (Judge II), cert. denied sub nom. Quinn
    v. Judge, 
    563 U.S. 1032
    (2011).
    A writ of election is the traditional device for initiating a
    popular election. 
    Id. at 552
    (collecting evidence regarding
    writs of election from the Glorious Revolution, the Founding
    period, the Seventeenth Amendment era, and the present
    day). A writ of election “plays the important administrative
    role of authorizing state officials to provide for the myriad
    details necessary for holding an election (printing ballots,
    locating voting places, securing election personnel, and so
    on).” 
    Id. At the
    time the Seventeenth Amendment was
    drafted, “it was settled that the state executive’s power to
    issue a writ of election carried with it the power to establish
    the time for holding an election, but only if the time had not
    already been fixed by law.” 
    Id. (citing, inter
    alia, George
    W. McCrary, A Treatise on the American Law of Elections
    166 (2d ed. 1880)). The “writ of election” reference thus
    appears to allow some discretion on the part of the State
    Governor or legislature to choose the date on which the
    election will be held.
    We interpret the phrase “writs of election to fill such
    vacancies” also as a cross-reference to the Seventeenth
    Amendment’s first paragraph, which states that Senators
    shall be “elected by the people” of each state, and which
    provides the qualifications for electors. U.S. Const. amend.
    XVII para 1. We thus understand the Vacancy Clause to
    require a writ of election that orders an election by the
    people, where “the people” is composed of those individuals
    having the requisite qualifications to vote in a Senate
    election.
    22                       TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    We read “to fill such vacancies” to refer to the election
    of a Senator who will represent the state for the remainder of
    the term in which the vacancy occurred. This language
    appears to assume that a non-de minimis period of time
    remains in the term, and that an orderly election is capable
    of filling it. That is, the duty to call an election might not
    apply if the vacancy happens so late in the term that it is not
    feasible to hold an orderly election quickly enough that the
    elected Senator will serve for more than a de minimis period
    of time. Cf. ACLU v. Taft, 
    385 F.3d 641
    , 648 (6th Cir. 2004)
    (citing Jackson v. Ogilvie, 
    426 F.2d 1333
    , 1336–37 (7th Cir.
    1970)). This language may also suggest that the State should
    leave some non-de minimis period of the vacancy for the
    people to fill by election to the extent it is within the State’s
    discretion to do so.
    The proviso begins with the authorization, “Provided,
    That the legislature of any State may empower the executive
    authority thereof to make temporary appointments . . . .”
    This language appears to give the legislature discretion as to
    whether the State will utilize the mechanism of temporary
    appointments. 15 We interpret the phrase “make temporary
    appointments,” by reference to the Senate vacancy invoked
    by the principal clause, to mean appoint a person to serve,
    temporarily, as Senator in the vacant seat.
    The key issue here is the word “temporary.” On its face,
    the term “temporary” is vague. In context, however, we are
    15
    We decline to address here whether the state legislature’s
    discretion extends so far as to encompass mandating that the executive
    make appointments, or defining the qualifications of appointees. We
    therefore also do not address how much, if any, discretion regarding
    appointments the proviso preserves for the state executive. As we
    explain in section 0, infra, we find that Plaintiffs lack standing to raise
    these arguments.
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                       23
    able to discern some meaning. First, we think the term must
    be read in relation to the six-year term of a Senator stated in
    the preceding paragraph. We would have difficulty reading
    it to approach anything nearing that full six-year term.
    Second, the proviso concludes with language placing a
    specific limit on the duration of “temporary”: “. . . until the
    people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may
    direct.” The tenure of a Governor’s appointee is thus limited
    by the timing of a popular election to fill the vacancy.
    Without more context, however, this language does not
    establish the precise amount of time that may elapse before
    the Seventeenth Amendment compels an election by the
    people to fill the vacancy. Indeed, this language expressly
    grants the state legislature some degree of discretion
    regarding that timing.
    Contrary to the Third Circuit in Trinsey v. Pennsylvania,
    
    941 F.2d 224
    (3d Cir. 1991), cert. denied, 
    502 U.S. 1014
    (1991), we do not read the proviso’s two express references
    to state legislative discretion—“the legislature of any State
    may empower” and “as the legislature may direct”—as
    creating state legislative discretion over the whole of the
    Vacancy Clause. See 
    id. at 234.
    Rather, we read these grants
    of discretion as modifying the specific terms they
    immediately relate to within the proviso. Cf. Barnhart v.
    Thomas, 
    540 U.S. 20
    , 26 (2003) (explaining the “‘rule of the
    last antecedent,’ according to which a limiting clause or
    phrase . . . should ordinarily be read as modifying only the
    noun or phrase that it immediately follows”). Thus, the first
    grant confers discretion as to whether a state legislature
    “empower[s]” the Governor “to make temporary
    appointments.” The second grant confers discretion as to the
    “direct[ing]” of a vacancy “election.” To read either grant
    24                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    of discretion more broadly would render the other grant
    superfluous.
    Instead, we agree with the Seventh Circuit in Judge I that
    “as the legislature may direct” does not modify the principal
    clause’s mandate that a Governor issue a writ of election
    when a vacancy happens. 
    See 612 F.3d at 549
    . We further
    agree with the Seventh Circuit that the proviso acts as a
    qualifier on the principal clause, rather than as an alternative
    option for responding to Senate vacancies. See 
    id. at 551.
    In sum, the text of the Seventeenth Amendment confers
    some discretion upon the States as to both the timing of an
    election to fill a vacancy and the duration of an interim
    appointment. The text is ambiguous as to the outer bounds
    of this discretion.
    2. Constitutional Context
    We now consider other constitutional provisions closely
    related to the Seventeenth Amendment. Portions of the
    Seventeenth Amendment Vacancy Clause appear in, or
    cross-reference, sections 2, 3, and 4 of Article I of the
    unamended Constitution. The meaning of identical, similar,
    or explanatory language in these provisions has the potential
    to bring the meaning of the Vacancy Clause into sharper
    focus.
    The Seventeenth Amendment Vacancy Clause
    specifically replaced the following language from Article I,
    section 3, of the unamended Constitution:
    . . . and if Vacancies happen by Resignation,
    or otherwise, during the Recess of the
    Legislature of any State, the Executive
    thereof may make temporary Appointments
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                            25
    until the next Meeting of the Legislature,
    which shall then fill such Vacancies.
    U.S. Const. art. I, § 3, cl. 2, amended by U.S. Const. amend.
    XVII (hereinafter the Unamended Vacancy Clause). The
    Seventeenth Amendment Vacancy Clause nevertheless
    retains much of this language. 16
    Most notably for our purposes, both Vacancy Clauses
    contain temporal limitations, including specifically that
    appointments be “temporary.” The Unamended Vacancy
    Clause provided two other express limitations: the trigger is
    limited to vacancies that happen “during the Recess of the
    Legislature of any State,” and the appointment lasts only
    “until the next Meeting of the Legislature, which shall then
    fill such Vacancies.” The Seventeenth Amendment Vacancy
    Clause, however, provides just one other express limitation:
    the appointment lasts only “until the people fill the vacancies
    by election as the legislature may direct.” The Seventeenth
    Amendment Vacancy Clause thus has a broader reach than
    16
    We provide a blackline for easy comparison:
    . . . and if When Vacancies happen by Resignation, or
    otherwise in the representation of any State in the
    Senate, during the Recess of the Legislature of any
    State, the executive authority of such State shall issue
    writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That
    the legislature of any State may empower the
    Executive thereof may to make temporary
    Appointments until the next Meeting of the
    Legislature, which shall then people fill such the
    Vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.
    See U.S. Const. amend. XVII para. 2; 
    id. art. I
    § 3, cl. 2 (additions in
    underline, omissions in strikethrough) (capitalization differences
    omitted).
    26                      TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    the Unamended Vacancy Clause, in that it applies
    throughout a Senate term. It is also more ambiguous than
    the Unamended Vacancy Clause, in that meetings of the state
    legislature occurred on regular schedules, whereas a popular
    vacancy election would not necessarily coincide with a
    regularly scheduled event.
    Plaintiffs argue that the Seventeenth Amendment’s
    reference to “temporary appointments” invokes a precise
    temporal meaning that this phrase had in the Unamended
    Vacancy Clause. Under the Unamended Vacancy Clause, a
    “temporary” appointment lasted no longer than the
    maximum interval between state legislative sessions. At the
    time that the Unamended Vacancy Clause was drafted, it
    appears that States held legislative sessions at least once a
    year. See Clopton & 
    Art, supra, at 1211
    n.119 (collecting
    state constitutions). As the Framers understood the
    provision, the maximum duration of a “temporary”
    appointment was thus one year. 17 See, e.g., S. Rep. No. 33-
    385, at 1–2 (1854) (concluding that an appointed Senator’s
    right of representation had expired upon the closing of the
    next legislative session following appointment). However,
    at the time that the Seventeenth Amendment was drafted,
    17
    Indeed, delegates to the Philadelphia Convention doubted whether
    it was wise to entrust a Senate appointment power to State Governors at
    all, but their concerns were assuaged by assurances of this time
    constraint. See James Madison, Notes on the Debates in the Federal
    Convention, Aug. 9, 1787 (“Mr. WILSON objected to vacancies in the
    Senate being supplied by the Executives of the States. It was unnecessary
    as the Legislatures will meet so frequently. It removes the appointment
    too far from the people . . . . Mr. RANDOLPH thought it necessary in
    order to prevent inconvenient chasms in the Senate. In some States the
    Legislatures meet but once a year. As the Senate will have more power
    & consist of a smaller number than the other House, vacancies there will
    be of more consequence. The Executives might be safely trusted he
    thought with the appointment for so short a time.”) (emphasis added).
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                               27
    many States held legislative sessions only every other year.
    Valenti v. Rockefeller, 
    292 F. Supp. 851
    , 864 (W.D.N.Y.
    1968), summarily aff’d, 
    393 U.S. 405
    (1969). The maximum
    duration of a “temporary” appointment then, assuming the
    permissible duration evolved with changing practice, 18 was
    therefore two years. These discrete time limits (one year or
    two years) are potential interpretations of the term
    “temporary” in the Seventeenth Amendment. 19
    However, the Seventeenth Amendment’s omission of the
    very language from the Unamended Vacancy Clause that
    18
    The duration of actual interim appointments did grow longer. See
    
    Valenti, 292 F. Supp. at 864
    (finding that 32 of 179 appointees between
    1789 and 1913 served for more than one year); Clopton & 
    Art, supra, at 1211
    n.120 (reporting based on “the aid of modern technology and more
    accurate sources” that only 21 pre-Seventeenth Amendment appointees
    served longer than one year, only one of whose tenure occurred during
    the first fifty years after the unamended Constitution was ratified).
    19
    Plaintiffs also invite us to also interpret the term “temporary” to
    invoke a functional analogy between the Unamended Vacancy Clause’s
    reference to the “next Meeting of the Legislature,” and the Seventeenth
    Amendment Vacancy Clause’s reference to “the people fill[ing] the
    vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.” That is, the term
    “temporary” could carry over an implication that the election by the
    people to fill the vacancy must take place at the popular-election
    equivalent of the “next Meeting of the Legislature.” Plaintiffs argue that
    the people are always in session. Thus, the State must hold the vacancy
    election as quickly as it is able to hold an orderly special election. Other
    functional interpretations are also possible, however, such as that the
    people meet when they vote in elections. Thus, the State must hold the
    vacancy election no later than the next election at which the people of
    the state are voting, which is to say any statewide election, including a
    special election or odd-year election. Or, the people meet in their federal
    political capacity when they vote for congressional representatives.
    Thus, the State must hold the vacancy election no later than the next
    congressional election, which is to say the next even-year November
    election.
    28                         TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    gave the term “temporary” a precise temporal meaning
    suggests to us that such meaning was not retained. We think
    it more likely that the meaning retained by “temporary” was
    simply that an appointment does not definitively resolve a
    vacancy, but rather lasts only until the event that actually
    “fill[s]” the vacancy.
    Plaintiffs invite us to find further meaning in the
    language of the Seventeenth Amendment Vacancy Clause
    that duplicates language in the vacancy clause governing the
    House of Representatives (the House Vacancy Clause). The
    House Vacancy Clause states:
    When      vacancies      happen    in    the
    Representation from any State, the Executive
    Authority thereof shall issue Writs of
    Election to fill such Vacancies.
    U.S. Const. art. I, § 2, cl. 4. The Seventeenth Amendment
    materially replicates this language in the principal clause. 20
    The House Vacancy Clause does not specify the amount
    of time that may permissibly elapse between the happening
    of a vacancy and the vacancy election. Given the two-year
    term of a Representative, however, we can deduce that any
    20
    We provide a blackline for easy comparison:
    When vacancies happen in the Representation from of
    any State in the Senate, the Executive Authority
    thereof of such State shall issue Writs of Election to
    fill such Vacancies.: Provided . . .
    See U.S. Const. amend. XVII para. 2; 
    id. art. I
    , § 2, cl. 4 (additions in
    underline, omissions in strikethrough) (capitalization differences
    omitted).
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                              29
    vacancy election must occur within a timeframe shorter than
    two years, and generally earlier than the next congressional
    election. 21  We note the judgment implicit in this
    requirement, that a special election is practicable on this
    shorter timeframe, and that a special election is worthwhile
    notwithstanding the limited duration of the remaining
    vacancy. Accord 
    Valenti, 292 F. Supp. at 878
    (Frankel, J.,
    dissenting).
    However, we do not think the Seventeenth Amendment
    Vacancy Clause should be interpreted as referencing the
    precise time constraints that apply in the House context, for
    two reasons. First, the effect of a House vacancy is different
    from that of a Senate vacancy. When a vacancy occurs in
    the House, the affected district has no representation in the
    House until the State certifies a winner of the special
    election. The House Vacancy Clause contains no provision
    for an interim appointee. By contrast, when a vacancy
    happens in the Senate, the affected state is normally still
    represented by a second elected Senator, as well as
    potentially by an interim appointee. The election of a
    replacement Representative is thus in some sense more
    urgent than the election of a replacement Senator. Accord
    21
    Plaintiffs’ reliance on Jackson v. Ogilvie, 
    426 F.2d 1333
    (7th Cir.
    1970), and ACLU v. Taft, 
    385 F.3d 641
    (6th Cir. 2004), for the
    proposition that the House Vacancy Clause requires a special election as
    soon as practicable is misplaced. Both of those cases were concerned
    with whether the House Vacancy Clause mandates a special election at
    all, even with little time left in the vacant term. See 
    Jackson, 426 F.2d at 1334
    ; 
    ACLU, 385 F.3d at 644
    . Both held that it does, so long as the
    remaining time is not truly de minimis. See 
    Jackson, 426 F.2d at 1337
    ;
    
    ACLU, 385 F.3d at 650
    . Both held further that the lame-duck session is
    not de minimis. See 
    Jackson, 426 F.2d at 1337
    ; 
    ACLU, 385 F.3d at 649
    n.5. But neither pronounced a time constraint that would require a
    special election earlier than the next general election.
    30                     TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    
    ACLU, 385 F.3d at 649
    n.3; 
    Valenti, 292 F. Supp. at 862
    –63
    (majority opinion). Conversely, however, the election of a
    replacement Senator is uniquely urgent in the sense that the
    Constitution prizes the equal representation of the States.
    See U.S. Const. art. V (“[N]o state, without its consent, shall
    be deprived of its equal suffrage in the Senate.”).
    Second, as a practical matter, most States can likely
    conduct a special election more easily for a single
    congressional district than for an entire state. Most
    congressional districts are smaller than their entire states in
    terms of both geography and population. 22 Thus, House
    special elections generally require fewer polling places,
    fewer ballot materials, and a smaller elections staff. There
    may also be a smaller field of candidates, and candidates
    may be able to campaign more quickly. Accordingly, there
    is reason to think the Seventeenth Amendment Vacancy
    Clause may allow a longer interval before the people fill the
    vacancy by election than does the House Vacancy Clause.
    Accord 
    Valenti, 292 F. Supp. at 862
    –63.
    Finally, Plaintiffs argue that the final words of the
    Seventeenth Amendment Vacancy Clause (“as the
    22
    Currently, seven states have only one congressional district:
    Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and
    Wyoming. U.S. Census Bureau, Apportionment Population and Number
    of       Representatives,      by     State:         2010     Census,
    https://www.census.gov/population/apportionment/files/Apportionment
    %20Population%202010.pdf. When the Seventeenth Amendment was
    ratified, five states had only one congressional district: Arizona,
    Delaware, Nevada, New Mexico, and Wyoming. Apportionment Act of
    1911, Pub. L. No. 62-5, 37 Stat. 13 (1911). When the original
    Constitution was ratified, two of the thirteen original states were
    apportioned only one congressional district pending the first census:
    Delaware and Rhode Island. U.S. Const. art. I, § 2, cl. 3.
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                       31
    legislature may direct”) are a cross-reference to the Elections
    Clause, which states:
    The Times, Places and Manner of holding
    Elections for Senators and Representatives,
    shall be prescribed in each State by the
    Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at
    any time by Law make or alter such
    Regulations, except as to the Places of
    chusing Senators.
    U.S. Const. art. I, § 4, cl. 1. We need not resolve this
    question, as we would disagree in any event with Plaintiffs’
    argument that such a cross-reference independently imposes
    a time constraint on the vacancy election. Cf. United States
    v. Classic, 
    313 U.S. 299
    , 311 (1941) (“Pursuant to . . . [the
    Elections Clause] . . . , the states are given, and in fact
    exercise a wide discretion in the formulation of a system for
    the choice by the people of representatives in Congress.”).
    In sum, we do not find that related constitutional
    provisions place any precise temporal limitations upon
    vacancy elections or appointments under the Seventeenth
    Amendment.
    3. Historical Context
    We next reflect upon the broader historical context and
    the public spirit of the moment that motivated the drafting
    and ratification of the Seventeenth Amendment. As drafted
    in 1787, the original U.S. Constitution provided for two
    chambers of the national legislature elected in two different
    ways. While members of the House of Representatives were
    to be elected “by the People,” U.S. Const. art. I, § 2, cl. 1,
    Senators were to be “chosen by the [State] Legislature,” U.S.
    Const. art. I, § 3, cl. 1. The Framers had at least two
    32                        TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    motivations for designing the Senate in this way: (a) to
    secure the role of state governments in the new federal
    government, and (b) to balance the directly elected House
    with a legislative chamber comprising a more “select
    appointment.” The Federalist No. 62 (James Madison). 23
    Congressional proposals to amend the Constitution in
    favor of the direct election of Senators began within
    Madison’s lifetime. See Clopton & 
    Art, supra, at 1189
    n.17
    (collecting proposals as early as 1826). At least four
    motivations drove the reformers: (1) curbing corrupt
    practices in the choosing of Senators, such as bribery and
    control by party bosses; 24 (2) freeing state legislatures from
    the distraction and distorting effects of being responsible for
    choosing national representatives; 25 (3) avoiding deadlocks
    23
    See also James Madison, Notes on the Debates in the Federal
    Convention, June 6, 1787 (“Mr. SHERMAN: If it were in view to
    abolish the State Govts. the elections ought to be by the people. If the
    State Govts. are to be continued, it is necessary in order to preserve
    harmony between the National & State Govts. that the elections to the
    former shd. be made by the latter.”); George H. Haynes, The Election of
    Senators 1–18 (1906) (canvassing the debates that took place at the 1787
    Philadelphia convention regarding the composition of the Senate, noting
    that the device of election by state legislatures was widely popular and
    was the device by which the delegates had themselves been selected).
    24
    See, e.g., H.R. Rep. No. 55-125, at 3 (1898) (“The public press for
    years . . . has been teeming with legislative scandals in the election of
    Senators, until bribery and corruption are, we fear, in some localities,
    fast becoming recognized as a part of the legislative function . . . .”)
    (quoting H.R. Rep. No. 52-368, at 3 (1892)); Haynes, supra note 23, at
    169–79; Jay S. Bybee, Ulysses at the Mast: Democracy, Federalism, and
    the Sirens’ Song of the Seventeenth Amendment, 91 Nw. U. L. Rev. 500,
    536–41 (1997).
    25
    See Haynes, supra note 23, at 180–95.
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                             33
    that left states unrepresented; 26 and (4) giving the people a
    greater voice in their own government. 27 This last
    motivation was primary. In the words of then-Professor,
    now Judge Jay S. Bybee:
    [W]hile corruption and legislative deadlock
    might have demanded reform, neither
    justified amending the Constitution. . . . In
    the end analysis, . . . the real justification for
    the Seventeenth Amendment was its populist
    appeal, a need to “awaken[] in the Senators
    . . . a more acute sense of responsibility to the
    people.” The people simply wished to elect
    senators themselves, without the mediation
    of their state representatives.          William
    Jennings Bryan argued that “[i]f the people of
    a State have enough intelligence to choose
    their representatives in the State legislature
    . . . , they have enough intelligence to choose
    the men who shall represent them in the
    United States Senate.” Whatever the reasons
    for the original mode of selection, the voters
    were “a new people living and acting under
    an old system.” In the proponents’ view, the
    Senate had been “a sort of aristocratic body—
    too far removed from the people, beyond
    their reach, and with no especial interest in
    their welfare.”           For populists and
    26
    See 
    id. at 158–60,
    195–96; Bybee, supra note 24, at 541–44.
    27
    See Haynes, supra note 23, at 131–32, 153–58, 166–69, 200–03;
    Bybee, supra note 24, at 544–47.
    34                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    progressives, election by the legislature was
    an anachronism[.]
    Bybee, supra note 24, at 544 (footnotes omitted) (first
    quoting H.R. Rep. No. 50-1456, at 2 (1888); second quoting
    26 Cong. Rec. 7775 (1893); third quoting 28 Cong. Rec.
    1519 (1896) (statement of Sen. Turpie); fourth quoting S.
    Rep. No. 54-530, at 10 (1896)).
    By the first decade of the twentieth century, a majority
    of state legislatures supported and had to some extent
    already implemented the popular election of Senators. See
    Richard Albert, The Progressive Era of Constitutional
    Amendment, 2 Revista de Investigações Constitucionais 35,
    46–48 (2015). Having received House approval numerous
    times in various versions, the soon-to-be Seventeenth
    Amendment finally received Senate approval in 1911. H.J.
    Res. 39, 62d Cong., 47 Cong. Rec. 1879–1925 (1911). The
    House accepted the Senate’s version in 1912, 37 Stat. 646
    (1912), and three quarters of the States had ratified the
    Amendment by mid-1913, 38 Stat. 2049 (1913).
    Reading the Seventeenth Amendment Vacancy Clause
    in the context of its primary historical purpose, we think that
    the people are generally more empowered the more of a
    Senate term they are permitted to fill by election.
    Representation by a temporary appointee is some
    representation, but it is indirect representation only, of
    precisely the type the Seventeenth Amendment meant to
    substantially replace. However, the people may also suffer
    a loss of empowerment to the extent the vacancy election
    occurs too close in time to when the vacancy happened, if a
    too-quick schedule means the people are deprived of a
    meaningful choice among candidates. But beyond the
    amount of time that it takes to hold an orderly election, we
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                       35
    think that the popular purpose of the Seventeenth
    Amendment counsels interpreting it to minimize the interval
    preceding the vacancy election and likewise the duration of
    appointed representation.
    As to the secondary concerns that motivated reformers,
    we note that corrupt practices are a heightened risk where
    there is only one decisionmaker (e.g. the Governor) rather
    than a large body of them (e.g. the State legislature). This
    risk was illustrated recently by Governor Blagojevich’s
    attempt to sell President-elect Obama’s vacant Senate seat.
    See Judge 
    I, 612 F.3d at 541
    ; Monica Davey & Emma G.
    Fitzsimmons, Ex-Governor Found Guilty of Corruption,
    N.Y. Times, June 28, 2011, at A1. Thus, the shorter the
    tenure of an appointee, the shorter may be the time that a
    corruptly appointed Senator serves, and perhaps the less
    attractive will be the appointment to corrupt actors. We
    think the Seventeenth Amendment satisfies the
    overburdened legislature and legislative deadlock concerns
    regardless of the length of a temporary appointment.
    Thus, our review of the historical context leads us to
    disfavor any interpretation that permits excessively long
    vacancies, but still does not reveal any precise constraints.
    4. Congressional Understanding
    Plaintiffs cite remarks by the Senator who proposed the
    final version of the Seventeenth Amendment in the Senate,
    and by the Representative who authored the Vacancy
    Clause’s final text in the context of a previous version of the
    Seventeenth Amendment introduced in the House, as
    supporting their interpretation of the Amendment. We
    disagree. We conclude that the cited reports are ambiguous
    as to the relevant questions.
    36                     TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    Senator Joseph L. Bristow 28 proposed the final version
    of the Seventeenth Amendment in the Senate. In his remarks
    on the Senate floor, he briefly explained the drafting of the
    Vacancy Clause. Regarding the principal clause, he
    emphasized that he had “use[d] exactly the same language in
    directing the governor to call special elections for the
    election of Senators to fill vacancies that is used in the
    Constitution in directing him to issue writs of election to fill
    vacancies in the House of Representatives.” 47 Cong. Rec.
    1482–83 (1911). Regarding the proviso, he noted “[t]hat it
    is practically the same provision which now exists in the case
    of such a vacancy. . . . [T]he legislature may empower the
    governor of the State to appoint a Senator to fill a vacancy
    until the election occurs, and he is directed by this
    amendment to ‘issue writs of election to fill such
    vacancies.’”      
    Id. These statements
    align with our
    conclusions regarding the text and constitutional context
    discussed above. They do not, however, illuminate whether
    legislators understood the final language to require that the
    necessary “special election” must “occur[]” by a particular
    time. 
    Id. Representative Henry
    St. George Tucker III 29 authored
    an 1892 proposed version of the Seventeenth Amendment,
    28
    Senator Bristow (R-Kan.) was a former newspaper editor who
    devoted his political career to progressive reform, particularly with
    respect to popular participation in government. See U.S. Senate, Joseph
    L. Bristow: A Featured Biography, https://www.senate.gov/senators/
    FeaturedBios/Featured_Bio_Bristow.htm.
    29
    Representative Tucker (D-Va.) was a constitutional law scholar
    who would later serve as dean of the law schools of Washington and Lee
    University and George Washington University. See Biographical
    Directory of the U.S. Cong., Tucker, Henry St. George,
    http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=T000399.
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                       37
    from which the final version of the Amendment borrowed
    the language in the Vacancy Clause (omitting one comma).
    Representative Tucker’s authorship received express
    acknowledgement during the Senate debates on the final
    version. 46 Cong. Rec. 2940 (1911). We therefore find
    Representative Tucker’s explanation of his language to be
    relevant here. In explaining his proposed language,
    Representative Tucker justified the principal clause, under
    which “the governor must order an election to fill the
    vacancy,” as “preserv[ing] the principle of election by the
    people.” H.R. Rep. No. 52-368, at 5 (1892) (emphasis
    added). He justified the proviso as responding to the
    predicament of those States that have “annual elections,”
    where any vacancy would therefore “in most cases not be of
    long duration, and to add another State election would be
    imposing an unnecessary expense on the people.” 
    Id. (emphasis added).
    He went on to suggest that:
    . . . in a State where there are biennial
    elections the legislature might direct that if a
    vacancy occurred within a year [or any other
    period it might fix] after the election, the
    vacancy should be filled by an election by the
    people; but if the vacancy occurred more than
    a year after the election the vacancy should
    be filled by executive appointment.
    
    Id. (brackets in
    original). In context, we read this
    explanation to suggest that a state legislature would have
    discretion to direct that any vacancy occurring within the
    “period it might fix” be filled by prompt special election, but
    that any vacancy occurring thereafter be filled at the next
    general election, with a temporary appointee serving in the
    interim.
    38                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    We conclude that Representative Tucker’s report
    evinces a strong assumption that States would fill most
    Senate vacancies by popular election within one year of their
    occurrence.      However, we are less confident that
    Representative Tucker’s report evinces any assumption that
    the proposed Vacancy Clause would require observance of
    this one-year limit. Rather, his report suggests that although
    the principal clause would require a special election (even
    sooner than one year) standing alone, the proviso defeats this
    requirement by leaving some discretion to state legislatures.
    The report does not anticipate the possibility that States with
    biennial elections might direct that a prompt special election
    is never required, postponing the people’s ability to fill the
    vacancy until the next general election no matter how near
    the previous election the vacancy arose. But neither does the
    report offer an interpretation of the proviso that would
    clearly prohibit this.
    The legislative history thus does not provide us with a
    clear view of the textual interpretation possessed by the
    members of Congress who voted in favor of the Seventeenth
    Amendment.
    5. State Legislature Interpretations
    Defendants draw our attention to the Senate vacancy
    statutes enacted by most state legislatures shortly after the
    Seventeenth Amendment’s ratification. Defendants argue
    that these statutes demonstrate that the correct interpretation
    of the Vacancy Clause is one that permits a vacancy election
    at the next even-year election, or the second even-year
    election if the vacancy happens within some months of the
    first one. See 
    Valenti, 292 F. Supp. at 858
    –59 (where there
    is ambiguity or doubt, contemporaneous and subsequent
    state practice is persuasive evidence of the best
    constitutional construction) (citing McPherson v. Blacker,
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                              39
    
    146 U.S. 1
    (1892); Smiley v. Holm, 
    285 U.S. 355
    (1932)).
    We agree that these statutes provide persuasive evidence in
    favor of this conclusion. However, we note several caveats.
    Forty States enacted Senate vacancy statutes between
    1913 and 1915. See 
    Valenti, 292 F. Supp. at 857
    tbl.1, 871–
    75 (App’x B). Nineteen States specifically required—
    whether expressly by reference to biennial or congressional
    elections, or implicitly by reference to the state’s general
    elections—that vacancy elections take place at the next
    even-year election. 30 Four States required that vacancy
    elections take place at the next even-year election following
    some additional time for nominations. 31 Four States
    required that vacancy elections take place at the next annual
    election. 32 Eight States required a special election within
    less than one year of the start of the vacancy. 33 The
    30
    See Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 12-2870 (1913) (but authorizing Governor
    to call special election if this would result in lapse of over six months);
    1913 Cal. Stat. 237 (but requiring vacancy election during any statewide
    special election if sooner); 1913 Fla. Laws 277; 1913 Ga. Laws 135;
    1913 Ill. Laws 307; 1915 Ind. Acts 13; 1914 Ky. Acts 98; 1915 Mich.
    Pub. Acts 261; 1913 Minn. Laws 756; 1915 Mont. Laws 281; 1915 Nev.
    Stat. 83; 1915 N.H. Laws 32; 1915 Okla. Sess. Laws 57; 1915 S.D. Sess.
    Laws 367; 1913 Tenn. Pub. Acts 396; 1915 Utah Laws 54; 1915 Vt. Acts
    & Resolves 70; 1913 Wis. Sess. Laws 825 (but authorizing Governor to
    call special election sooner); 1913 Wyo. Sess. Laws 100.
    31
    See 1915 N.M. Laws 39 (30 days); 1913 N.C. Sess. Laws 206 (30
    days); 1914 Ohio Laws 8 (180 days); 1913 Pa. Laws 995 (60 days in
    advance of the primary).
    32
    See 1913 Colo. Sess. Laws 267; 1914 Md. Laws 1337; 1913 N.Y.
    Laws 2419 (plus 30 days); 1914 Va. Acts 252.
    33
    See 1915 Ala. Laws 364 (60 days, or 4 months if upcoming
    general election); Del. Rev. Code § 1890 (1915) (one year); 1914 La.
    Acts 471 (100 days); 1915 Me. Laws 35 (“forthwith”); 1914 Miss. Laws
    40                       TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    remaining five States did not set a deadline but appear to
    have left the timing of vacancy elections entirely or
    primarily to the Governor’s discretion. 34
    The number of state legislatures apparently interpreting
    the Seventeenth Amendment to afford them discretion to
    postpone a Senate vacancy election for up to two years or
    slightly more is persuasive evidence that this interpretation
    reflects the original public understanding. Even the statutes
    providing for special elections within thirteen months or less
    do not necessarily evince an interpretation that the state
    legislature lacked discretion to postpone the election
    longer. 35 Nor can we entirely dismiss the interpretations of
    contemporary state legislatures as coming from the political
    bodies that the Seventeenth Amendment had just divested of
    power. The majority of state legislatures supported some
    form of the Seventeenth Amendment, and many had already
    implemented state-level reforms to create de facto direct
    election of Senators. 
    Albert, supra, at 46
    –48.
    But we also do not find the state statutes conclusive as to
    the proper interpretation of the Seventeenth Amendment
    Vacancy Clause. The evidence we have examined in this
    portion of our analysis tells us no more than that twenty-
    192 (90 days, or calendar year of general election); 1914 R.I. Pub. Laws
    65 (“as early . . . as will admit of compliance with . . . law”); 1914 S.C.
    Acts 592 (90 days); 1913 Tex. Gen. Laws 101 (90 days).
    34
    See 1913 Conn. Pub. Acts 1839; 1913 Mass. Acts 1059; 1915 Mo.
    Laws 280; 1915 Or. Laws 59; 1915 Wash. Sess. Laws 232 (not less than
    25 days from issuance of writ).
    35
    Indeed, many States that originally provided for prompt special
    elections later amended their statutes to postpone vacancy elections until
    the next even-year election. See 
    Valenti, 292 F. Supp. at 857
    tbl.1, 871–
    75 (App’x B).
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                           41
    three state legislatures enacted statutes in the wake of the
    Seventeenth Amendment’s ratification that postponed a
    vacancy election to the next (or next practicable) even-year
    election. We do not know the extent to which that choice
    represented the state legislatures’ debate or deliberation, as
    opposed to uncontested assumption, regarding the meaning
    of the Seventeenth Amendment. We do not know how state
    or federal courts might have interpreted the Seventeenth
    Amendment if those statutes had occasioned contemporary
    challenges. 36 Cf. U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton, 
    514 U.S. 779
    , 823 (1995) (“One may properly question the extent
    to which the States’ own practice is a reliable indicator of the
    contours of restrictions that the Constitution imposed on
    States, especially when no court has ever upheld [the
    challenged state practice].”). And we do not know whether
    the state legislatures that enacted speedier special election
    laws may have specifically interpreted the Seventeenth
    Amendment to so require. We do note that we have no
    example within contemporary state practice—or any
    subsequent state practice—of a State attempting to extend a
    vacancy or interim appointment by significantly more than
    the two-year gap between even-year elections.
    In sum, postratification state statutes favor, but do not
    compel, an interpretation of the Seventeenth Amendment
    Vacancy Clause that leaves States broad discretion to
    schedule a vacancy election up until the next general election
    preceded by some reasonable period of time in which to hold
    the election.
    36
    We do know that many state courts had interpreted similar
    vacancy provisions in their own state constitutions to require prompt
    special elections. See 
    Valenti, 292 F. Supp. at 883
    (Frankel, J.,
    dissenting) (collecting cases).
    42                      TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    6. Precedent
    We now turn to the four prior cases that have interpreted
    the Seventeenth Amendment Vacancy Clause at any length.
    We begin with Valenti and Rodriguez, and proceed to two
    related decisions decided by our sister circuits in the interim.
    i. Valenti v. Rockefeller
    On June 5, 1968, U.S. Senator and presidential candidate
    Robert F. Kennedy was fatally shot in the kitchen of the
    Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles. Pursuant to then-
    applicable New York law, the vacancy created by Senator
    Kennedy’s assassination occurred too close to that year’s
    Senate primaries to let the people of New York fill the
    vacancy by election in November 
    1968. 292 F. Supp. at 853
    .
    Instead, the law permitted the vacant seat to go unfilled by
    popular election until November 1970—an interval of 29
    months. See 
    id. Multiple plaintiffs
    challenged New York’s
    Senate vacancy statute and moved for an injunction ordering
    New York to hold a vacancy election in November 1968—
    i.e., five months from when the vacancy occurred. 
    Id. In Valenti,
    a divided three-judge district court 37 dismissed the
    complaints. 
    Id. 37 At
    the time of Valenti, Congress required that any case seeking an
    injunction against a state officer to prevent enforcement of an allegedly
    unconstitutional state statute be heard by a special three-judge district
    court. 28 U.S.C. § 2281 (1964) (repealed 1976). One member of the
    specially constituted court had to be a circuit judge. 
    Id. § 2284(1).
    The
    decision of the three-judge court was directly appealable to the Supreme
    Court. 
    Id. § 1253.
    See generally 17A Charles Alan Wright, Arthur R.
    Miller & Vikram David Amar, Federal Practice and Procedure § 4234
    (3d ed., Aug. 2019 update) (tracing history of the three-judge district
    court from Congress’s reaction to Ex Parte Young, 
    209 U.S. 123
    (1908),
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                              43
    All three judges on the panel agreed that the final words
    of the proviso (“as the legislature may direct”) grants “some
    reasonable degree of discretion” to state legislatures to
    determine the timing of a Senate vacancy election. 
    Id. at 856;
    id. at 884 
    (Frankel, J., dissenting). They also all agreed
    that the word “temporary” could not “faithfully be read to
    allow appointments for anything approaching the full six
    years in the case of a vacancy occurring early in the term.”
    
    Id. at 881.
    They nevertheless disagreed regarding the outer
    boundaries of the State’s discretion, as well as regarding
    what evidence is relevant to answer that question.
    Writing for the majority, Second Circuit Chief Judge
    Lumbard 38 divided the relevant inquiry into two parts: (1)
    whether the Seventeenth Amendment permitted New York
    to skip the upcoming election—i.e., November 1968—and
    (2) whether the Seventeenth Amendment permitted New
    York to skip the next odd-year election—i.e., November
    1969. See 
    id. at 855
    (majority opinion). He answered both
    questions in the affirmative. As to the first, he emphasized
    the State’s interest in holding primary elections, which he
    implied outweighed the people’s interest in a prompt special
    election. Id.; see also 
    id. at 861–62
    (emphasizing the virtues
    of primary elections). As to the second, he focused on the
    probative value of state statutes enacted shortly after the
    Seventeenth Amendment’s ratification, as we discussed
    above. 
    Id. at 856–59.
    He also posited three “substantial state
    interests” as justifying a generous interpretation of the
    discretion the Amendment grants to state legislatures:
    to the Supreme Court’s frustration with the practice peaking in the late
    1960s and early 1970s, to the “virtual abolition” of the practice in 1976).
    38
    Chief Judge Lumbard was joined by Chief District Judge
    Henderson of the Western District of New York.
    44                        TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    (a) capitalizing on maximum voter interest and turnout
    during even-year elections; (b) making it easier for Senate
    candidates to finance their campaigns; and (c) avoiding the
    inconvenience and expense associated with Senate elections
    in back-to-back years. 
    Id. at 859–60.
    39
    39
    Dissenting, Judge Frankel of the Southern District of New York
    criticized the majority for its “almost total disregard” of the Seventeenth
    Amendment’s primary mandate that Senators be “elected by the people.”
    
    Id. at 875–76
    (Frankel, J., dissenting). He would have held that the
    Amendment contains a “powerful presumption” than an appointment
    ought last no longer than one year, and that “the most impressive kind of
    justification” is necessary to exceed it. 
    Id. at 889
    (adding that the
    appointment at issue, substantially exceeding two years, was “patently
    excessive”). In support of this conclusion he drew on textual comparison
    to and historical practice under the Unamended Vacancy Clause. See 
    id. at 876–77.
    He also drew on textual comparison to the House Vacancy
    Clause, legislative history, and numerous state court interpretations of
    similar legislative vacancy provisions in those states’ own constitutions.
    See 
    id. at 877–84.
    Judge Frankel objected to the majority’s reliance on state practice,
    citing several then-recent Supreme Court decisions that invalidated state
    statutes under newly announced constitutional interpretations despite
    clearly contrary state interpretations at the time of ratification. 
    Id. at 887
    (citing Baker v. Carr, 
    369 U.S. 186
    (1962); Reynolds v. Sims, 
    377 U.S. 533
    (1964); Brown v. Board of Education, 
    347 U.S. 483
    (1954)).
    Judge Frankel further argued that it was perverse to have a
    “substantial state interest” in increased voter turnout lead to an
    interpretation that did not allow anyone to vote for over two years. 
    Id. He criticized
    the majority’s arguments about the “expense” of a special
    election, noting, for instance, that such expense could hardly be
    prohibitive. 
    Id. at 888.
    He argued that Representative Tucker’s report
    interpreted the operative language to justify delay for expense reasons if
    and only if the vacancy election would otherwise take place within the
    same year as an already scheduled general election. 
    Id. (citing H.R.
    Rep.
    No. 52-368, at 5 (1892)).
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                        45
    On direct appeal, the Supreme Court summarily affirmed
    the Valenti majority. 
    393 U.S. 405
    (1969) (per curiam).
    Accordingly, Valenti binds us as to the result, although not
    the reasoning, of the district court decision. In Anderson v.
    Celebrezze, 
    460 U.S. 780
    (1983), the Supreme Court
    explained:
    We have often recognized that the
    precedential effect of a summary affirmance
    extends no further than ‘the precise issues
    presented and necessarily decided by those
    actions.’ A summary disposition affirms
    only the judgment of the court below, and no
    more may be read into our action than was
    essential to sustain the judgment.
    
    Id. at 784
    n.5 (citation omitted) (quoting Ill. Elections Bd. v.
    Socialist Workers Party, 
    440 U.S. 173
    , 182–83 (1979)); see
    also 
    id. at 784–85
    (“Then, correctly recognizing the limited
    precedential effect to be accorded summary dispositions, the
    Court of Appeals independently reached the same
    conclusion.”) (footnote omitted); Washington v.
    Confederated Bands and Tribes of the Yakima Indian
    Nation, 
    439 U.S. 463
    , 476 n.20 (1979) (“It is not at all
    unusual for the Court to find it appropriate to give full
    consideration to a question that has been the subject of
    previous summary action.”).
    The parties dispute the nature of “the precise issues” that
    were “necessarily decided” by the Court’s summary
    affirmance in Valenti. 
    Anderson, 460 U.S. at 784
    n.5
    (quoting Ill. Elections 
    Bd., 440 U.S. at 182
    –83). Plaintiffs
    would have us limit the precedential effect of Valenti to the
    denial of the injunction sought by the Valenti plaintiffs, i.e.,
    the five-month timetable. Defendants would have us read
    46                      TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    the affirmance broadly as authorizing the delay of a popular
    election until November 1970, i.e., the full 29-month
    interval. Our resolution of this dispute turns on our
    interpretation of Rodriguez.
    ii. Rodriguez v. Popular Democratic Party
    In 1981, Puerto Rico House of Representatives member
    Ramón Muñiz (Popular Democratic Party) died and left
    vacant his seat in the commonwealth 
    legislature. 457 U.S. at 3
    . At the time, Puerto Rico law allowed the vacating
    legislator’s political party to fill the vacancy by appointment
    for the remainder of the term, in this case nearly the full four-
    year term. See 
    id. at 3–5
    & n.2 (citing P.R. Laws Ann., Tit.
    16, §§ 3206, 3207 (Supp. 1980)). The Governor of Puerto
    Rico, a member of the opposition New Progressive Party,
    instead called a special election open to all qualified voters.
    
    Id. at 3.
    In the lawsuit that ensued, the U.S. Supreme Court
    was called upon to decide whether the Puerto Rico vacancy
    law violated the U.S. Constitution. 
    Id. It unanimously
    held
    that it did not. 
    Id. The Court
    interpreted the question before it as whether,
    given that Puerto Rico allows its people to elect legislators
    by popular vote at each general election, the U.S.
    Constitution prevents it from filling vacancies during the
    interim periods only by appointment. 40          It rejected
    arguments that either the Qualifications Clause, U.S. Const.
    art. I, § 2, cl. 1 (referencing the “Electors of the most
    numerous Branch of the State Legislature”), the Guarantee
    40
    The Court separately addressed the question of whether that
    appointment could be delegated to a political party. See 
    id. at 12–14.
    It
    affirmed the finding of the Supreme Court of Puerto Rico that this “was
    a legitimate mechanism serving to protect the mandate of the preceding
    election.” 
    Id. at 13.
                             TEDARDS V. DUCEY                               47
    Clause, U.S. Const. art. IV, § 4 (guaranteeing “to every State
    in this Union a Republican Form of Government”), or the
    Fifth or Fourteenth Amendment equal protection guarantees
    so prohibit. See 
    id. at 8–10
    & n.8.
    Instead, the Court found support for Puerto Rico’s
    appointment procedure by analogizing to the Seventeenth
    Amendment. See 
    id. at 10–12.
    The Court observed that in
    Valenti it had “sustained the authority of the Governor of
    New York to fill a vacancy in the United States Senate by
    appointment pending the next regularly scheduled
    congressional election—in that case, a period of over 29
    months.” 41 
    Id. at 10–11
    (citing 
    393 U.S. 405
    ). The Court
    then reasoned that:
    . . . the fact that the Seventeenth Amendment
    permits a state, if it chooses, to forgo a special
    election in favor of a temporary appointment
    to the United States Senate suggests that
    [neither] a state [nor Puerto Rico] is . . .
    constitutionally prohibited from exercising
    similar latitude with regard to vacancies in its
    own legislature.
    41
    We acknowledge that both sides’ briefing in Rodriguez simply
    assumed that the Court’s summary affirmance of Valenti had endorsed
    the full 29-month delay of a vacancy-filling election. See Brief for
    Appellants at 22 n.14, 
    457 U.S. 1
    (1982) (No. 81-328); Brief for
    Appellees at 23–25, 
    457 U.S. 1
    (1982) (No. 81-328); Reply Brief for
    Appellants at 6–7, 11, 
    457 U.S. 1
    (1982) (No. 81-328). Rather than
    challenging this interpretation, the appellants tried to distinguish Valenti
    as upholding an appointment lasting “less than half” the term, in contrast
    to nearly the entire term as in the case at hand. Brief for 
    Appellants, supra, at 22
    n.14.
    48                      TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    
    Id. at 11.
    The Court also quoted with approval the Valenti
    district court’s assessment that the case involved “no
    fundamental imperfection in the functioning of democracy,”
    but “only the unusual, temporary, and unfortunate
    combination of a tragic event and a reasonable statutory
    scheme.” 
    Id. at 11
    (quoting 292 F. Supp. at 867
    ).
    The parties dispute whether Rodriguez’s discussion of
    Valenti was dicta or holding, given that the Seventeenth
    Amendment does not apply to Puerto Rico and the vacancy
    at issue was not in the U.S. Senate. Even if it is mere dicta,
    however, we do not believe we are free to ignore it. See Zal
    v. Steppe, 
    968 F.2d 924
    , 935 (9th Cir. 1992), as amended
    (July 31, 1992) (Noonan, J., concurring in the result in part
    and dissenting in part) (“[D]icta of the Supreme Court have
    a weight that is greater than ordinary judicial dicta as
    prophecy of what that Court might hold. We should not
    blandly shrug them off because they were not a holding.”).
    Moreover, we think that Rodriguez’s discussion of Valenti
    has even greater weight, because we cannot say with
    certainty that the Court would have reached the same
    conclusion regarding Puerto Rico’s appointment scheme
    without the analogy to Valenti’s approval of a 29-month
    Senate appointment. Furthermore, an interpretation of the
    Seventeenth Amendment Vacancy Clause that grants States
    as much as 29 months in which to schedule a vacancy
    election at their discretion is not unreasonable in light of our
    foregoing analysis. We therefore conclude that we are
    bound by Rodriguez’s 29-month interpretation of the
    binding result of Valenti. 42
    42
    Plaintiffs argue that U.S. Term Limits and Cook v. Gralike, 
    531 U.S. 510
    (2001) herald an intervening doctrinal shift that more narrowly
    circumscribes state discretion. In U.S. Term Limits, the Court prohibited
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                             49
    iii. Trinsey v. Pennsylvania
    On April 4, 1991, Pennsylvania Senator H. John Heinz
    III’s privately chartered plane collided with a helicopter in
    midair. The aircraft crashed into the yard of an elementary
    school, killing Senator Heinz along with the pilots and two
    first-grade girls who had been at recess. 43 Then-operative
    Pennsylvania law required a vacancy election at the next
    general or municipal election occurring at least 90 days after
    the happening of the vacancy, which meant November 
    1981. 941 F.2d at 225
    . In contrast to Pennsylvania’s approach to
    general elections, the law did not provide for primaries
    before the vacancy election, but instead allowed the major
    political parties to nominate candidates in accordance with
    their own party rules. 
    Id. at 225–27.
    A Philadelphia
    the State of Arkansas from denying ballot access to congressional
    candidates who had served a certain number of terms in 
    Congress. 514 U.S. at 783
    . The Court concluded that the Constitution prohibits States
    from imposing congressional qualifications additional to those therein
    enumerated, emphasizing that to allow otherwise would violate the
    “fundamental principle of our representative democracy . . . ‘that the
    people should choose whom they please to govern them.’” 
    Id. at 783,
    793, 795, 819 (quoting Powell v. McCormack, 
    395 U.S. 486
    , 547
    (1969)). In Cook, the Court prohibited the State of Missouri from
    attempting to circumvent U.S. Term Limits—under the guise of the
    State’s authority to regulate the “Manner of holding Elections,” U.S.
    Const. art. I, § 4, cl. 1—by printing adverse labels next to the names of
    congressional candidates who had not pledged or taken action to support
    a term limits amendment to the U.S. 
    Constitution. 531 U.S. at 522
    –26.
    Even assuming these cases represent a doctrinal shift relevant to our
    decision today, it would be the Supreme Court’s prerogative, not ours, to
    resolve potentially conflicting lines of its own doctrine. Rodriguez de
    Quijas v. Shearson/Am. Express, Inc., 
    490 U.S. 477
    , 484 (1989); In re
    Twelve Grand Jury Subpoenas, 
    908 F.3d 525
    , 529 (9th Cir. 2018).
    43
    Don Phillips & Michael Specter, Sen. Heinz Dies in Plane Crash,
    Wash. Post, Apr. 5, 1991, at A1.
    50                       TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    developer and would-be Republican Senate candidate sued
    pro se after reading the Seventeenth Amendment in his home
    encyclopedia, arguing that nominations must be made “by
    the people.” 44 
    Id. at 226–27.
    On appeal of the district court
    judgment for the developer, the Third Circuit reversed. 
    Id. at 236.
    The Supreme Court denied certiorari. 
    502 U.S. 1014
    (1991).
    The Third Circuit began by canvassing the Seventeenth
    Amendment’s legislative history for discussion of primary
    elections. 
    See 941 F.2d at 228
    –31. It concluded that
    Congress had deliberately omitted to require a particular
    process for nominating Senate candidates for general
    elections, but that the record revealed little consideration of
    the issue with regard to vacancy elections. 
    Id. at 230–31.
    Although presented with the “converse” of the situation
    here—essentially, the claim that the State was holding the
    vacancy election too soon—the court then relied heavily on
    Valenti and Rodriguez for the proposition that the
    Seventeenth Amendment confers “a reasonable discretion
    upon the states concerning the timing and manner of
    conducting vacancy elections.” 
    Id. at 233
    (quoting 
    Valenti, 292 F. Supp. at 866
    ). 45 Having found nothing in legislative
    44
    See David Treadwell, Senate Hopeful’s Suit Puts Pennsylvania in
    Turmoil: Novice says the people, not the parties, must choose
    candidates,      L.A.     Times       (June       20,    1991),      https://
    www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-06-20-mn-1437-story.html.
    The Third Circuit appointed Professor Laura E. Little of Temple
    University School of Law as amicus curiae to “fully and forcefully”
    present the position adverse to that of the State. 
    Trinsey, 941 F.2d at 227
    .
    45
    The Third Circuit distinguished two Supreme Court cases
    specifically regarding primary elections, holding that those cases
    governed only citizens’ rights respecting a primary election that the state
    has chosen to hold, and did not establish a right to have the state hold a
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                             51
    history or caselaw to support a constitutional requirement
    that States hold primaries before vacancy elections, the
    Third Circuit concluded that no fundamental right was
    infringed by the Pennsylvania statute. 
    Id. at 234.
    It therefore
    rejected the district court’s application of strict scrutiny, and
    concluded that Rodriguez counsels toward “a more
    deferential standard of review.” 
    Id. Trinsey is
    generally
    consistent with our foregoing analysis.
    iv. Judge v. Quinn
    On November 4, 2008, then-Senator Barack Obama was
    elected President of the United States. He resigned his
    Senate seat twelve days later, with nearly two years and two
    months remaining in the 
    term. 612 F.3d at 541
    . Illinois law
    provided that a Senate vacancy be filled at the next
    congressional election (i.e., November 2010), with the
    Governor making a temporary appointment in the interim.
    
    Id. Governor Rod
    Blagojevich appointed former State
    Attorney General Roland Burris to serve as Senator until the
    vacancy was “filled by election as provided by law,” but did
    not issue a writ of election. 
    Id. Shortly thereafter,
    Governor
    Blagojevich, whose private phone calls the FBI had all the
    while been recording, was impeached, removed from office,
    criminally indicted, and eventually convicted on charges
    including attempting to “obtain personal financial benefits
    . . . in return for his appointment of a United States Senator.”
    Superseding Indictment at 16, United States v. Blagojevich,
    No. 08 CR 888-1 (N.D. Ill. Apr. 2, 2009); see Judge 
    I, 612 F.3d at 541
    ; Davey & 
    Fitzsimmons, supra
    , at A1.
    primary election. See 
    id. at 231–32
    (discussing United States v. Classic,
    
    313 U.S. 299
    (1941), and Tashjian v. Republican Party of Conn., 
    479 U.S. 208
    (1986)).
    52                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    Two registered voters sued the successor Governor for
    an alleged violation of their Seventeenth Amendment rights.
    Judge 
    I, 612 F.3d at 541
    . As ultimately presented to the
    Seventh Circuit, the plaintiffs challenged the Governor’s
    failure to issue a writ of election fixing any date for the
    people to fill the vacancy. 
    Id. at 543.
    Without such a writ,
    the November 2010 election would fill only the subsequent
    Senate term beginning in 2011. With a writ, the November
    2010 election could also fill the remaining few weeks (i.e.,
    the “lame-duck” session) of the Obama term.
    In Judge I, the Seventh Circuit concluded that the
    Seventeenth Amendment makes mandatory the Governor’s
    duty to issue a writ of election. 
    Id. at 555.
    In Judge II, the
    Seventh Circuit clarified that the district court had authority
    to issue an injunction requiring the Governor to do just that,
    regardless of Illinois statutory law. 387 F. App’x at 630.
    The Supreme Court denied certiorari. 
    563 U.S. 1032
    (2011).
    In Judge III, the Seventh Circuit upheld the district court’s
    injunction ordering the Governor to call a special election on
    election day in November 2010, and to name as candidates
    to fill the lame-duck session of the Obama vacancy the same
    candidates running for the subsequent Senate term. 
    624 F.3d 352
    , 354, 356, 362 (7th Cir. 2010). The Supreme Court
    again denied certiorari. Burris v. Judge, 
    563 U.S. 1041
    (2011).
    Although Rodriguez had interpreted Valenti to authorize
    a State “to forgo a special election in favor of a temporary
    
    appointment,” 457 U.S. at 11
    , the Seventh Circuit concluded
    that Valenti did not provide “firm guidance” for its analysis.
    Judge 
    I, 612 F.3d at 548
    –49. Assuming without deciding
    that the Valenti summary affirmance endorsed the full 29-
    month lapse in elected representation, the Seventh Circuit
    concluded that Valenti nevertheless “had nothing to say
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                            53
    about” and “could not have decided” the question whether
    the Seventeenth Amendment mandates the issuance of a writ
    of election. 
    Id. at 549
    (noting that the Governor of New
    York had already issued a writ of election for November
    1970). We agree with the Seventh Circuit on this point, and
    conclude that the “forgo a special election” language in
    Rodriguez is fairly read to refer to elections falling outside
    the general election cycle, rather than to vacancy elections
    altogether. We add that neither Valenti nor Rodriguez
    articulate any rationale for concluding that temporary
    appointments are an alternative to ever holding a vacancy
    election, or that state discretion to “direct” a vacancy
    election encompasses discretion to “forgo” a vacancy
    election. We therefore interpret Rodriguez to endorse only
    a State’s discretion to postpone a vacancy election until a
    general election.
    B. Application to A.R.S. § 16-222
    We turn at last to the challenged law. Under the schedule
    set by A.R.S. § 16-222(D) and Governor Ducey’s writ of
    election consistent therewith, Arizona’s lapse between the
    occurrence of the vacancy and the vacancy election exceeds
    the full two-year interval between congressional election
    voting days by about two and a half months. 46 In Valenti,
    New York’s lapse exceeded the same interval by about five
    months. Because Arizona’s additional lapse does not exceed
    the additional lapse endorsed by Valenti and Rodriguez, we
    hold that the timing provision of A.R.S. § 16-222(D) as
    applied to the McCain vacancy is a permissible exercise of
    46
    Although A.R.S. § 16-222(D) provides for as much as seven
    months of additional time, no such vacancy election schedule is before
    us. We therefore need not fully resolve the outer boundaries of the
    Seventeenth Amendment’s permissible schedule.
    54                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    the State’s discretion under the Seventeenth Amendment.
    Likewise, then, neither Governor Ducey’s writ of election
    nor Senator McSally’s appointment is a violation thereof.
    We therefore affirm the district court’s dismissal of
    Counts I and II of Plaintiffs’ amended complaint to the
    extent that those counts relate to the timing of the vacancy
    election and the duration of appointed representation under
    the Seventeenth Amendment.
    II. First and Fourteenth Amendment Burdick Challenge
    to Vacancy Election Date
    Plaintiffs raise their right to vote under the First and
    Fourteenth Amendments, as interpreted by Burdick v.
    Takushi, 
    504 U.S. 428
    (1992), as an independent reason to
    find A.R.S. § 16-222 unconstitutional as applied to the
    November 2020 vacancy election date. Burdick prescribes a
    sliding-scale level of scrutiny for evaluating governmental
    actions that burden the right to vote. 
    Id. at 434.
    At one end
    of the spectrum, “severe” restrictions must be “narrowly
    drawn to advance a state interest of compelling importance.”
    
    Id. (quoting Norman
    v. Reed, 
    502 U.S. 279
    , 289 (1992)). At
    the other end of the spectrum, “important [state] regulatory
    interests are generally sufficient” to justify “reasonable,
    nondiscriminatory restrictions.” 
    Id. (quoting Anderson,
    460
    U.S. at 788). Thus, the burdening of the right to vote always
    triggers a higher level of scrutiny than rational basis review,
    but does not always trigger strict scrutiny.
    The parties dispute the severity of the burden at issue
    here. Plaintiffs argue that a 27-month election “delay” is
    plainly a “severe” restriction on the right to vote.
    Defendants argue that the delay of a vacancy election until
    the next general election is not a burden at all. We assume,
    without deciding, that regulation of the timing of a vacancy
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                        55
    election is at least a “burden” for purposes of Burdick
    review. However, because we hold above that the
    Seventeenth Amendment authorizes at least as long of an
    interval before the vacancy election as is challenged here, we
    conclude that the burden thereby posed is necessarily a
    “reasonable” one.
    “[R]easonable” restrictions on the right to vote may be
    justified by “important” state interests. 
    Burdick, 504 U.S. at 434
    (quoting 
    Anderson, 460 U.S. at 788
    ). Defendants assert
    three state interests. First, they note the cost of holding an
    election that takes place independently of the biennial
    general election. Plaintiffs counter that the cost is relatively
    small, but we have previously found similar interests
    “important” in other Burdick cases. E.g., Dudum v. Arntz,
    
    640 F.3d 1098
    , 1116 (9th Cir. 2011); Ariz. Libertarian Party
    v. Reagan, 
    798 F.3d 723
    , 733 (9th Cir. 2015).
    Second, Defendants argue that Arizona has an important
    interest in maximizing voter turnout, and provides evidence
    that voter turnout in recent Arizona elections was highest at
    biennial general elections.         Plaintiffs counter that
    Defendants’ evidence is inapposite because a special
    election for a Senator could have a much higher turnout than
    the special elections Defendants reference. Plaintiffs further
    argue that Defendants offer no basis for what increase in
    turnout qualifies as important, and that the indifference of
    some voters should not preclude others from voting. Despite
    these limitations, we agree that Arizona’s interest in voter
    turnout is important.
    Third, Defendants point to the possibility of voter
    confusion engendered by multiple elections. In 2020,
    Arizonans are scheduled to vote in a March presidential
    primary, an August primary, and the November general
    election. We agree that Arizona’s interest in minimizing
    56                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    voter confusion is important and relevant in this context. We
    reject Plaintiffs’ argument that Soltysik v. Padilla, 
    910 F.3d 438
    (9th Cir. 2018), precludes the voter confusion rationale.
    See 
    id. at 448–49
    (holding that a speculative concern of voter
    confusion was insufficient, but also that elaborate empirical
    verification was unnecessary where the burden of a
    restriction is minimal). In Soltysik we were considering the
    potential voter confusion engendered by candidate party
    affiliations on the ballot, a matter we found highly
    speculative. In this case, the potential for voter confusion on
    account of multiple elections is not purely speculative but
    has been validated by other cases. See, e.g., Lynch v. Ill.
    State Bd. of Elections, 
    682 F.2d 93
    , 97 (7th Cir. 1982); Vera
    v. Bush, 
    933 F. Supp. 1341
    , 1348 (S.D. Tex. 1996) (three-
    judge court).
    Relying on Soltysik more generally, Plaintiffs argue that
    all of Defendants’ arguments fail at the motion to dismiss
    stage because an evidentiary hearing is necessary to apply
    something more than rational basis review. 
    See 910 F.3d at 446
    –48. We disagree. This case is distinguishable from
    Soltysik because, compared to the burden at issue here, the
    burden in Soltysik fell higher on the Burdick sliding scale
    between “reasonable, nondiscriminatory” and “severe.” 
    Id. at 445–46.
    In Soltysik, we considered a challenge to a
    California law requiring candidates from all but six
    “qualified” parties to state a party preference of “None” on
    the ballot. 
    Id. at 445.
    The law therefore required a false
    statement regarding political views and clearly
    discriminated against candidates from new and small parties.
    
    Id. at 445–46.
    Under these circumstances, we held that
    further development of the evidentiary record was necessary
    to determine whether there were “more precise ways” to
    address the State’s alleged interest in preventing voter
    confusion. 
    Id. at 447.
                         TEDARDS V. DUCEY                        57
    We have already explained our conclusion that the
    burden posed by the timing of the vacancy election here is
    necessarily reasonable. To the extent that A.R.S. § 16-
    222(D)’s timing provision discriminates (against candidates
    other than the appointee, or parties other than that of the
    appointee, or voters who disfavor the appointee)—based on
    it providing the appointee ample time to gain the advantages
    of running as an incumbent—this discrimination is hardly
    distinguishable from that which occurs when a candidate
    wins an election by the people. Cf. 
    Rodriguez, 457 U.S. at 12
    (finding that the Puerto Rico vacancy statute’s effect
    “d[id] not fall disproportionately on any discrete group of
    voters, candidates, or political parties”). Thus, a higher level
    of scrutiny applied to the discriminatory regulation in
    Soltysik than applies here, and justified holding an
    evidentiary hearing to properly scrutinize the burden.
    Plaintiffs have failed to plausibly allege that the timing
    of the vacancy election here is not justified by “important”
    state interests. 
    Burdick, 504 U.S. at 434
    ; cf. 
    Rodriguez, 457 U.S. at 12
    (finding that the Puerto Rico vacancy statute
    “plainly serve[d] the legitimate purpose of ensuring that
    vacancies are filled promptly, without the necessity of the
    expense and inconvenience of a special election”). Given
    that the burden of this timing on Plaintiffs’ right to vote is
    “reasonable” and “nondiscriminatory,” the “important” state
    interests raised above are sufficient to affirm the dismissal
    of Plaintiffs’ First and Fourteenth Amendment challenges.
    
    Id. We therefore
    affirm the district court’s dismissal of
    Count I in its entirety.
    58                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    III.   Constitutional Challenges to Appointment
    Mandate and Same-Party Restriction
    Apart from the timing required by A.R.S. § 16-222(D),
    Plaintiffs challenge the law in two additional respects. They
    challenge the law’s mandate that “the governor shall appoint
    a person to fill the vacancy,” 
    id. § 16-222(C)
    (emphasis
    added), as a violation of the Seventeenth Amendment’s
    instruction that a state legislature “may empower” the
    Governor to make temporary appointments, U.S. Const.
    amend. XVII (emphasis added). They also challenge the
    law’s further mandate that the “appointee shall be of the
    same political party as the person vacating the office,”
    A.R.S. § 16-222(C), as a violation of the Qualifications
    Clauses as interpreted by U.S. Term 
    Limits, 514 U.S. at 787
    –
    827. Defendants argue that the first challenge fails on the
    merits, and that the second fails for lack of standing. The
    district court agreed. We conclude, however, that Plaintiffs
    lack standing to raise either challenge.
    The jurisdiction of Article III courts is limited to “Cases”
    and “Controversies.” U.S. Const. art. III, § 2; see Spokeo,
    Inc. v. Robins, 
    136 S. Ct. 1540
    , 1546–47 (2016). In order to
    establish that they have the “irreducible constitutional
    minimum” of standing to bring a case or controversy,
    Plaintiffs have the burden of demonstrating that they have
    “(1) suffered an injury in fact, (2) that is fairly traceable to
    the challenged conduct of the defendant, and (3) that is likely
    to be redressed by a favorable judicial decision.” 
    Id. at 1547
    (quoting Lujan v. Defenders of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 560
    (1992)). We focus here on the second factor.
    Plaintiffs invoke numerous theories to describe the
    injuries they allegedly suffer on account of § 16-222(C)’s
    mandate that the Governor make a temporary appointment
    and choose a member of the same political party as the
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                       59
    Senator who created the vacancy. See, e.g., United States v.
    Hays, 
    515 U.S. 737
    , 742–45 (1995) (representational harm);
    Regents of Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 
    438 U.S. 265
    , 281 n.14
    (1978) (loss of opportunity to compete); Ariz. Free
    Enterprise Club’s Freedom Club PAC v. Bennett, 
    564 U.S. 721
    , 750 (2011) (imposition of state viewpoint); Daniels v.
    Williams, 
    474 U.S. 327
    , 339 (1986) (Stevens, J., concurring
    in the judgment) (fundamentally flawed procedure). Even
    assuming Plaintiffs have suffered an injury in one or more of
    these respects, we fail to see how such an injury is traceable
    to A.R.S. § 16-222(C).
    Given that Arizona’s legislature “empower[ed]” the state
    governor to make “temporary” appointments, U.S. Const.
    amend. XVII, Governor Ducey unquestionably had the
    authority to appoint Martha McSally as a temporary
    replacement for Senator McCain. Plaintiffs allege no facts
    rebutting Governor Ducey’s statement on appeal that he
    “would have appointed Senator McSally regardless of the
    requirement that he name an interim senator and regardless
    of the requirement that the appointee share Senator
    McCain’s political party.” Accordingly, Plaintiffs have
    suffered no injuries from the appointment of Senator
    McSally that are fairly traceable to § 16-222(C), and have
    suffered no injury attributable to the mere existence of § 16-
    222(C) since it has not affected them. This lack of
    traceability is fatal to standing. Thus, we need not resolve
    whether the district court could redress Plaintiffs’ alleged
    injuries in the counterfactual where they were traceable to
    § 16-222(C).
    Accordingly, we affirm the district court’s dismissal of
    Count II of Plaintiffs’ amended complaint as it relates to the
    appointment mandate, and of Count III in its entirety, for
    lack of standing.
    60                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    CONCLUSION
    We interpret the Seventeenth Amendment, in light of
    Valenti and Rodriguez, to confer at least as much temporal
    discretion upon the States as was exercised by Arizona in
    A.R.S. § 16-222 as applied to the vacancy created by Senator
    McCain’s death.         Given this authorization by the
    Seventeenth Amendment, we further conclude that the
    vacancy election timing challenged here does not
    impermissibly burden the right to vote under the First and
    Fourteenth Amendments. We lack jurisdiction to consider
    Plaintiffs’ additional challenges.
    AFFIRMED.
    COLLINS, Circuit Judge, concurring in part and concurring
    in the judgment:
    I agree with the majority that the district court properly
    dismissed Plaintiffs’ various constitutional challenges to the
    Arizona statute governing the filling of senatorial vacancies,
    but in my view the issues raised in this case can be readily
    resolved under existing precedent. I therefore do not join the
    lengthy excursus on the meaning of the Seventeenth
    Amendment in section I(A) of the “Analysis” section of the
    majority’s opinion, which seems to me unnecessary to our
    decision in this case. Instead, I join only Parts I(B), II, and
    III of the “Analysis” section, and I concur in the judgment.
    I
    The Seventeenth Amendment expressly authorizes the
    legislature of a state to “empower the executive,” in the
    event of a vacancy in that State’s representation in the United
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                      61
    States Senate, “to make temporary appointments until the
    people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may
    direct.” U.S. Const. amend. XVII, para. 2. Arizona’s
    legislature has authorized the state Governor to make such
    temporary appointments, see Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 16-222(C),
    and after the vacancy created by the death of Senator John
    McCain, the Governor (Defendant Doug Ducey) exercised
    that authority by first appointing Jon Kyl and then, after
    Kyl’s resignation, by appointing Defendant Martha
    McSally. Under the plain terms of the amendment, McSally
    therefore may continue to serve temporarily “until the
    people” of Arizona “fill the vacanc[y] by election as the
    legislature may direct.” U.S. Const. amend. XVII, para. 2
    (emphasis added). On its face, the italicized phrase
    unquestionably grants the Arizona legislature “some
    reasonable degree of discretion” in setting the date of the
    election that will fill this Senate vacancy and thereby
    terminate McSally’s current “temporary appointment[].”
    Valenti v. Rockefeller, 
    292 F. Supp. 851
    , 856 (W.D.N.Y.
    1968) (three-judge district court) (emphasis added),
    summarily aff’d, 
    393 U.S. 405
    (1969); see 
    also 292 F. Supp. at 884
    (Frankel, J., dissenting) (agreeing that it was
    “acceptabl[e] all around” to “speak of a ‘reasonable
    discretion’ left to the state legislatures”). The Seventeenth
    Amendment question presented here is whether, by fixing
    the date of that election as November 3, 2020—i.e., more
    than 26 months after Senator McCain’s death on August 25,
    2018—the Arizona legislature has transgressed the proper
    boundaries of the discretion conferred by that amendment.
    See Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 16-222(D) (providing that where, as
    here, a vacancy occurs 150 days or fewer “before the next
    regular primary election date, the person who is appointed
    shall serve until the vacancy is filled at the second regular
    general election held after the vacancy occurs”) (emphasis
    added).
    62                       TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    The answer to this question is dictated by the
    precedential effect of the Supreme Court’s summary
    affirmance in Valenti, particularly as construed by the
    Court’s subsequent decision in Rodriguez v. Popular
    Democratic Party, 
    457 U.S. 1
    , 10–11 (1982). The three-
    judge district court in Valenti rejected a similar Seventeenth
    Amendment challenge to New York’s 29-month delay in the
    election to fill the vacancy created by the assassination of
    Senator Robert F. Kennedy in 1968, and the Supreme
    Court’s affirmance of that decision—coupled with
    Rodriguez’s subsequent discussion of that affirmance—
    leaves no doubt that we must reject Plaintiffs’ Seventeenth
    Amendment claim here.
    In Valenti, a three-judge district court rejected the
    plaintiffs’ constitutional challenges to a New York statute
    that effectively set November 3, 1970 as the date of the
    election to fill the vacancy created by Senator Kennedy’s
    death on June 6, 1968. 
    See 292 F. Supp. at 853
    . 1 After
    rejecting the plaintiffs’ contention “that an election in 1968
    is constitutionally required,” the court concluded that it
    “must also answer another question: Does the Seventeenth
    1
    Valenti actually involved three separate actions, two of which were
    filed in the Southern District of New York (Phillips v. Rockefeller and
    Backer v. Rockefeller) and one of which was filed in the Western District
    of New York (Valenti). The three actions apparently were not
    consolidated. Instead, to “facilitate prompt disposition of the common
    question, identical three-judge courts were designated in each case” by
    assembling a panel consisting of a Second Circuit judge and a district
    judge from each of the two districts 
    involved. 292 F. Supp. at 854
    . The
    cases were argued together, see 
    id., and “[d]uplicate
    originals” of the
    resulting opinion were filed in each district, 
    id. at 868.
    The plaintiffs in
    each case separately appealed to the Supreme Court, which separately
    affirmed each judgment without opinion. See Phillips v. Rockefeller, 
    393 U.S. 406
    (1969); 
    Valenti, 393 U.S. at 405
    ; Backer v. Rockefeller, 
    393 U.S. 404
    (1969).
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                       63
    Amendment prohibit New York from bypassing its general
    election in 1969 in favor of filling the vacancy in November,
    1970?” 
    Id. at 855
    (emphasis added). After an extensive
    analysis, the court answered this question in the negative and
    concluded that the New York legislature had “not
    contravene[d] the powers” conferred on it by the
    Seventeenth Amendment, even though “in the tragic
    circumstances of Senator Kennedy’s death the statutory
    chronology results in a delay of 29 months before the
    election of his successor by the people.” 
    Id. at 867–68.
    The Supreme Court summarily affirmed without
    opinion. 
    See 393 U.S. at 404
    –06. As the majority
    recognizes, see Majority Opinion at 45, we are bound by the
    result, if not the precise reasoning, when the Supreme Court
    summarily affirms a judgment. See Wisconsin Dep’t of
    Revenue v. William Wrigley, Jr., Co., 
    505 U.S. 214
    , 224 n.2
    (1992) (citing Anderson v. Celebrezze, 
    460 U.S. 780
    , 784 n.5
    (1983)). And because the 26-month delay at issue here is
    shorter than the 29-month delay upheld against a
    Seventeenth Amendment challenge in Valenti, we are bound
    under Valenti to reject Plaintiffs’ challenge here.
    Plaintiffs seek to evade Valenti by arguing that the
    “specific relief” sought in the complaints in those cases was
    “an election in November 1968 only and at no other time”;
    that “all the summary affirmance necessarily did was to deny
    an election on that date”; and that the Court therefore did not
    “necessarily uph[o]ld a 29-month delay in filling a Senate
    vacancy.” This contention fails. As an initial matter,
    Plaintiffs’ narrow characterization of the constitutional
    challenges presented in Valenti is belied by the district court
    opinion, which expressly addressed both the plaintiff’s
    “main argument” for a 1968 election date and their
    alternative argument for a 1969 election date. 
    292 F. Supp. 64
                          TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    at 855. Thus, while we are not bound by the Valenti district
    court’s reasoning in upholding a 29-month delay until the
    second subsequent congressional election, there can be no
    doubt that the district court’s judgment included a rejection
    of a Seventeenth Amendment challenge to such a delay, and
    we are bound by the precedential effect of the Supreme
    Court’s summary affirmance of that judgment. 
    Anderson, 460 U.S. at 784
    n.5 (“[T]he precedential effect of a summary
    affirmance extends no further than ‘the precise issues
    presented and necessarily decided by those actions.’”).
    Moreover, as the Supreme Court has explained,
    “[s]ummary affirmances . . . without doubt reject the specific
    challenges presented in the statement of jurisdiction and do
    leave undisturbed the judgment appealed from.” Mandel v.
    Bradley, 
    432 U.S. 173
    , 176 (1977) (per curiam) (emphasis
    added). 2 The first question presented in the jurisdictional
    statement filed in the Supreme Court in the Phillips case was
    as follows:
    Did New York State’s Legislature in enacting
    Section 296 of the Election Law violate
    Amendment XVII to the Constitution of the
    United States by vesting in the Executive the
    power to make a 29 months “temporary
    appointment” (from June 7, 1968 to
    December 1, 1970) and by vesting in “the
    people” (8,000,000 registered voters) the
    2
    Then, as now, the Supreme Court’s rules required that, in cases
    appealed as of right to the Court, the appellants must file a “jurisdictional
    statement” setting forth, inter alia, the questions presented and the basis
    for invoking the Court’s appellate jurisdiction. See S. CT. R. 15 (1967
    ed.); cf. S. CT. R. 18.3 (2019 ed.) (retaining a comparable requirement
    for the much smaller class of cases that remain within the Court’s
    mandatory appellate jurisdiction today).
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                      65
    right to elect a Senator of their own choosing
    for only 1 month (December 1, 1970 to
    January 3, 1971) where the total unexpired
    term of the late Senator Robert F. Kennedy
    was 30 months?
    Jurisdictional Statement, Phillips v. Rockefeller, 
    393 U.S. 406
    (1969) (No. 854), 
    1968 WL 129208
    , at *4–5 (emphasis
    added); see also 
    id. at *6
    (“[A] judgment by this Court
    reversing the judgment below would make possible an
    election for the Senate seat at the November, 1969 election.
    Or at an earlier special election by order of this Court.”).
    Similarly, the jurisdictional statement in the Backer case
    challenged the district court’s upholding of the November
    1970 date over a November 1969 date. See Statement as to
    Jurisdiction, Backer v. Rockefeller, 
    393 U.S. 404
    (1969) (No.
    852), 
    1968 WL 112484
    , at *10 (“The lower court explicitly
    decided . . . the question: Does the Seventeenth Amendment
    prohibit New York from bypassing its general election in
    1969 in favor of filling the vacancy in November, 1970? The
    question was answered in the negative.”). By separately and
    summarily affirming the judgments in Phillips and Backer,
    
    see 393 U.S. at 404
    , 406, the Supreme Court “without doubt
    reject[ed] the[se] specific challenges presented in the
    statement of jurisdiction,” and the Court therefore
    necessarily rejected these plaintiffs’ challenges to the 29-
    month delay. 
    Mandel, 432 U.S. at 176
    . We are bound by
    that holding, which requires us to reject Plaintiffs’
    Seventeenth Amendment challenge here.
    In addition, as the majority correctly notes, see Majority
    Opinion at 48, the Supreme Court’s subsequent decision in
    Rodriguez further confirms that Plaintiffs’ narrow reading of
    Valenti is incorrect. In Rodriguez, the Court addressed a
    constitutional challenge to Puerto Rico’s system for filling
    66                       TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    vacancies in its commonwealth legislature through
    temporary appointments lasting “only until the next
    regularly scheduled 
    election.” 457 U.S. at 7
    ; see also 
    id. at 8–12.
    3 The challengers contended that “qualified electors
    have an absolute constitutional right to vote for the members
    of a state or commonwealth legislature, even when a special
    election is required for this purpose.” 
    Id. at 8–9.
    In rejecting
    this contention, the Court drew an analogy to its summary
    affirmance in Valenti. Summarizing that ruling, the Court in
    Rodriguez did not refer to Valenti as addressing only a claim
    that the vacancy election had to be held within five months.
    Rather, the Court explained that Valenti had “sustained the
    authority of the Governor of New York to fill a vacancy in
    the United States Senate by appointment pending the next
    regularly scheduled congressional election—in that case, a
    period of over 29 
    months.” 457 U.S. at 10
    –11 (emphasis
    added). The Court reasoned that the Rodriguez challengers’
    insistence on a constitutional right to a special election (i.e.,
    an election in advance of the next regularly scheduled
    legislative election in Puerto Rico) was hard to square with
    Valenti: “[T]he fact that the Seventeenth Amendment
    permits a state, if it chooses, to forgo a special election in
    favor of a temporary appointment to the United States Senate
    suggests that a state is not constitutionally prohibited from
    exercising similar latitude with regard to vacancies in its
    own legislature. We discern nothing in the Federal
    Constitution that imposes greater constraints on the
    Commonwealth of Puerto Rico.” 
    Id. at 11.
    Rodriguez’s
    discussion of Valenti confirms that the Court understood its
    3
    In Rodriguez, a person elected to the Puerto Rico House of
    Representatives died shortly after the election, 
    see 457 U.S. at 3
    , and the
    vacancy was ultimately filled by a member of the same political party
    who was designated after “a primary election in which only [that party’s]
    members were permitted to participate,” 
    id. at 5
    n.3.
    TEDARDS V. DUCEY                         67
    summary affirmance as rejecting a Seventeenth Amendment
    challenge to New York’s 29-month delay until the next
    regularly scheduled election that would allow sufficient lead
    time for a primary election.
    I therefore agree with the majority’s conclusion that,
    because Arizona’s delay of the vacancy-filling election
    “does not exceed” the delay “endorsed by Valenti and
    Rodriguez,” the “timing provision of A.R.S. § 16-222(D) as
    applied to the McCain vacancy is a permissible exercise of
    the State’s discretion under the Seventeenth Amendment.”
    See Majority Opinion at 53--54. I thus concur in Part I(B)
    of the “Analysis” section of the court’s opinion and concur
    in its judgment rejecting Plaintiffs’ Seventeenth Amendment
    challenge.
    II
    I agree with the court’s rejection of Plaintiffs’ First and
    Fourteenth Amendment challenges to the date of the
    vacancy-filling election, and I therefore concur in Part II of
    the court’s “Analysis” section. Indeed, Plaintiffs’ arguments
    on this score seem difficult to square with Rodriguez’s
    observation that Puerto Rico’s “choice to fill legislative
    vacancies by appointment rather than by a full-scale special
    election may have some effect on the right of its citizens to
    elect the members of the Puerto Rico Legislature; however,
    the effect is minimal, and like that in Valenti, it does not fall
    disproportionately on any discrete group of voters,
    candidates, or political 
    parties.” 457 U.S. at 12
    (emphasis
    added).
    III
    Lastly, I agree with the court that Plaintiffs lack standing
    to challenge the requirements in Arizona law that (1) the
    68                   TEDARDS V. DUCEY
    Governor must make an appointment, and (2) the person
    selected must be from the same political party as the person
    who vacated the office. As the court explains, Plaintiffs
    cannot fairly trace their asserted injuries to these statutory
    provisions, as opposed to the Governor’s independent
    decisions. I therefore join Part III of the court’s “Analysis”
    section. For similar reasons, I believe that Plaintiffs also fail
    the redressability prong of standing. Lujan v. Defenders of
    Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 561 (1992). Given that Governor
    Ducey has stated that he would have appointed McSally
    regardless of these statutory constraints, see Majority
    Opinion at 59, any judgment invalidating those constraints
    would not redress these Plaintiffs’ alleged injuries.
    *       *       *
    For the foregoing reasons, I join Parts I(B), II, and III of
    the court’s “Analysis” section, and I concur in the court’s
    judgment affirming the district court’s dismissal of this
    action.