Joel Silva v. William Barr ( 2020 )


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  •                       FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    JOEL EMPLEO SILVA,                                  Nos. 16-70130
    Petitioner,             17-73272
    v.                              Agency No.
    A045-476-155
    WILLIAM P. BARR, Attorney
    General,
    Respondent.                       OPINION
    On Petition for Review of an Order of the
    Board of Immigration Appeals
    Submitted April 16, 2020*
    San Francisco, California
    Filed July 10, 2020
    Before: Marsha S. Berzon and Sandra S. Ikuta, Circuit
    Judges, and Ivan L.R. Lemelle, District Judge.**
    Opinion by Judge Ikuta;
    Concurrence by Judge Berzon
    *
    The panel unanimously concludes this case is suitable for decision
    without oral argument, and the case is therefore submitted on the briefs as
    of April 16, 2020. See Fed. R. App. P. 34(a)(2).
    **
    The Honorable Ivan L.R. Lemelle, United States District Judge for
    the Eastern District of Louisiana, sitting by designation.
    2                           SILVA V. BARR
    SUMMARY***
    Immigration
    Denying Joel Empleo Silva’s petitions for review of
    decisions of the Board of Immigration Appeals, the panel
    concluded that Silva’s conviction for petty theft under section
    484(a) of the California Penal Code is a crime involving
    moral turpitude, and that the BIA did not abuse its discretion
    in denying Silva’s motion to reopen to seek asylum and
    related relief based on changed country conditions in the
    Philippines.
    Silva was convicted of violating section 484(a) of the
    California Penal Code in 1998, 2004, and 2007. Addressing
    the BIA’s interpretation of crimes involving moral turpitude,
    the panel observed that, prior to 2016, the BIA had held that
    a theft offense did not categorically involve moral turpitude
    unless it involved a permanent taking, as distinguished from
    a temporary one. However, in Matter of Diaz-Lizarraga,
    
    26 I. & N. Dec. 847
     (BIA 2016), the BIA held that a theft
    offense may involve moral turpitude despite the fact that it
    does not require the accused to intend a literally permanent
    taking. This court subsequently held in Garcia-Martinez v.
    Sessions, 
    886 F.3d 1291
     (9th Cir. 2018), that the BIA’s new
    rule would not apply to persons who were convicted before
    November 16, 2016, the date on which the BIA issued Matter
    of Diaz-Lizarraga.
    ***
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It has
    been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    SILVA V. BARR                          3
    Addressing the elements of Silva’s conviction, the panel
    observed that, in People v. Davis, 
    19 Cal. 4th 301
     (1998), the
    California Supreme Court explained in dicta that section
    484(a) includes the intent to deprive the owner permanently
    of possession of the property, but the word permanently
    should not be taken literally, and temporary takings could
    amount to theft in some circumstances. In People v. Avery,
    
    27 Cal. 4th 49
     (2002), the California Supreme Court
    definitively held that a person could be convicted under
    section 484(a) even if that person did not intend to effect a
    literally permanent taking of property.
    The panel explained that, if it were writing on a clean
    slate, the categorical analysis would proceed as follows.
    Silva was convicted of violating section 484(a) in 1998, 2004,
    and 2007. According to Garcia-Martinez, at those times, the
    BIA’s generic definition of a theft offense involving moral
    turpitude required the intent to permanently deprive the
    owner of the property. But by 1998, under Davis, it was
    questionable whether a violation of section 484(a) required
    that the offender intend a literally permanent deprivation of
    property, and by 2004, under Avery, it was clear that section
    484(a) did not require such an intent. Therefore, at the time
    of at least two of Silva’s offenses, section 484(a) criminalized
    more conduct than the BIA’s generic theft offense involving
    moral turpitude, and so the state statute did not categorically
    define a crime involving moral turpitude. Thus, Silva would
    not be removable under 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(ii) because
    he was not convicted of two or more crimes involving moral
    turpitude.
    However, the panel pointed out that it was not writing on
    a clean slate, and that both before and after Avery, this court
    held that section 484(a) was a crime involving moral
    4                      SILVA V. BARR
    turpitude. The panel noted that Garcia-Martinez put those
    earlier opinions in question because they failed to analyze the
    potential distinction between the intent requirement in section
    484(a) and the BIA’s articulation of the intent required before
    Matter of Diaz Lizarraga. However, the panel concluded that
    it was nevertheless bound by circuit precedent. The panel
    explained that in this circuit, a three-judge panel must apply
    binding precedent even when it is clearly wrong because, for
    example, it failed to recognize an intervening change in the
    law. The panel noted that only an en banc court has the
    power to fix such errors. The panel further explained that a
    three-judge panel can reconsider the law of the circuit only
    when the relevant court of last resort has undercut the theory
    or reasoning underlying the prior circuit precedent in such a
    way that the cases are clearly irreconcilable, or when a three-
    judge panel must follow an agency construction entitled to
    deference under Nat’l Cable & Telecomms. Ass’n v. Brand X
    Internet Servs., 
    545 U.S. 967
     (2005), neither of which apply
    here. The panel therefore held that Silva’s three separate
    violations of section 484(a) constitute crimes involving moral
    turpitude.
    Turning to Silva’s motion to reopen, the panel held that
    the BIA did not abuse its discretion in denying Silva’s motion
    to reopen because he failed to establish prima facie eligibility
    for asylum and related relief based on changed country
    conditions. Silva sought to reopen proceedings based on his
    history of drug use and his fear of persecution or torture
    under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s anti-drug
    program. The panel noted that Silva did not contend that he
    suffered past persecution, and merely speculated that
    someone in the Philippines could report his past drug use to
    the government, or that he might succumb to the temptation
    to begin using drugs again. Because Silva failed to submit
    SILVA V. BARR                         5
    any specific evidence that such events might occur, the panel
    held that Silva failed to establish prima facie eligibility for
    relief.
    Judge Berzon concurred in the majority opinion in full,
    but wrote separately to reiterate her view that the phrase
    “crime involving moral turpitude” is unconstitutionally
    vague.
    COUNSEL
    Francisco Miguel Ugarte, Office of the Public Defender, San
    Francisco, California, for Petitioner.
    Joseph H. Hunt, Assistant Attorney General; Song Park and
    Papu Sandhu, Acting Assistant Directors; Christina P. Greer,
    Trial Attorney; Office of Immigration Litigation, Civil
    Division, United States Department of Justice, Washington,
    D.C.; for Respondent.
    OPINION
    IKUTA, Circuit Judge:
    Under our precedent, petty theft under section 484(a) of
    the California Penal Code is a crime involving moral
    turpitude. See, e.g., Castillo-Cruz v. Holder, 
    581 F.3d 1154
    ,
    1160 (9th Cir. 2009). Although we question whether this
    precedent was correctly decided, we have no authority to
    revisit it here. We also hold that the Board of Immigration
    Appeals (BIA) did not abuse its discretion in denying the
    petitioner’s motion to reopen.
    6                           SILVA V. BARR
    I
    Joel Empleo Silva was admitted to the United States as a
    lawful permanent resident on June 27, 1996. After
    admission, Silva was convicted of petty theft offenses under
    the California Penal Code on three separate occasions: in
    1998, he was convicted of petty theft in violation of sections
    484(a) and 490.5,1 and in 2004 and 2007, he was convicted of
    petty theft with a prior theft conviction in violation of
    sections 484(a) and 666.2 Silva was also convicted of
    attempted theft in violation of section 664 in 2000.
    In May 2015, the Department of Homeland Security
    charged Silva as removable for having been “convicted of
    two or more crimes involving moral turpitude,” 8 U.S.C.
    1
    Section 484(a) states, in pertinent part, “Every person who shall
    feloniously steal, take, carry, lead, or drive away the personal property of
    another . . . is guilty of theft.” 
    Cal. Pen. Code § 484
    (a). Section 484(a)
    encompasses both petty and grand theft; the elements of petty theft are the
    same as grand theft, apart from the amount or type of property taken. See
    
    Cal. Pen. Code §§ 487
    , 488; United States v. Esparza-Ponce, 
    193 F.3d 1133
    , 1137 (9th Cir. 1999).
    Section 490.5 prescribes the punishment for a “first conviction for
    petty theft involving merchandise taken from a merchant’s premises.”
    
    Cal. Pen. Code § 490.5
    . Silva was charged with stealing merchandise
    from a J. C. Penney department store.
    2
    At all relevant times, section 666 allowed for heightened
    punishments of persons convicted of petty theft after having served time
    based on a prior petty theft conviction. See 
    Cal. Penal Code § 666
    (effective Jan. 1, 2001 to Sep. 8, 2010).
    SILVA V. BARR                                7
    § 1227(a)(2)(A)(ii),3 referencing Silva’s three petty-theft
    offenses and his attempted-theft conviction. An immigration
    judge held that Silva was removable as charged.
    In December 2015, the BIA dismissed Silva’s appeal. It
    rejected Silva’s argument that a violation of section 484(a)
    did not qualify as a crime involving moral turpitude because
    the Ninth Circuit had “repeatedly held that it is.” The BIA
    expressed no opinion on Silva’s argument that the phrase
    “crimes involving moral turpitude” was unconstitutionally
    vague, holding that it lacked jurisdiction to declare an act of
    Congress unconstitutional. Silva petitioned for review.
    While the petition was pending, Silva moved to reopen
    proceedings in light of changed country conditions in the
    Philippines, for the purpose of applying for asylum,
    withholding of removal, and protection under the Convention
    Against Torture (CAT). In his motion, Silva made the
    following allegations. After Rodrigo Duterte was elected
    president of the Philippines, he instituted an anti-drug
    program that included an initiative called Oplan
    Tokhang—roughly translated as “knock and plead”—which
    focused on low-level sellers and users. Under Oplan
    Tokhang, police and local officials visited the houses of
    suspected drug sellers and users and demanded that they
    cooperate with the police. Suspects who did not cooperate,
    or who initially cooperated but then returned to using or
    selling, were reportedly killed.
    3
    Section 1227(a)(2)(A)(ii) provides, “Any alien who at any time after
    admission is convicted of two or more crimes involving moral turpitude,
    not arising out of a single scheme of criminal misconduct, regardless of
    whether confined therefor and regardless of whether the convictions were
    in a single trial, is deportable.” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(ii).
    8                           SILVA V. BARR
    Silva also alleged that his history of drug use would put
    him at risk if he returned to the Philippines. In a declaration
    submitted with his motion to reopen, Silva testified that he
    had regularly used methamphetamine while in the United
    States from the late 1990s until 2015 and that he had used a
    cheap form of the drug called “shabu” daily with friends and
    neighbors when he returned to the Philippines for three
    months in early 2000. After being taken into immigration
    custody in May 2015, Silva stopped using drugs and has
    continued to abstain from drug use after his release, even
    though he had “been tempted many times by [a] friend.”
    Despite abstaining from drugs, Silva claims that if he returns
    to the Philippines, the people who knew him when he was
    there in 2000 could “rat him out” to the police as a former
    drug user. Further, Silva believes that “it will be very hard
    for [him] to resist the temptation to start using shabu” in the
    Philippines.
    The BIA denied Silva’s motion to reopen. The BIA
    reasoned that Silva had not shown that Filipino authorities
    were aware or would become aware of his past drug use. Nor
    had Silva shown that he would use drugs in the Philippines.
    Therefore, the BIA held that Silva had not made out a prima
    facie case for asylum, withholding of removal, or CAT
    protection. Silva petitioned for review.
    We consolidated Silva’s two pending petitions for review.
    See 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (b)(6). We have jurisdiction over both
    petitions based on 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (a)(1). See Mata v. Lynch,
    
    576 U.S. 143
    , 147 (2015).4
    4
    Silva stated that the criminal-alien bar, 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (a)(2)(C)—
    which limits our jurisdiction “to review any final order of removal against
    an alien who is removable by reason of having committed” various
    SILVA V. BARR                                9
    II
    We first turn to Silva’s petition for review of the BIA’s
    December 2015 order of removal. On appeal, Silva argues
    that he is not removable for having been convicted “of two or
    more crimes involving moral turpitude,” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(ii), because a violation of section 484(a) of
    the California Penal Code does not involve moral turpitude.
    To determine whether an alien’s crime of conviction
    subjects the alien to removal under 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(ii), we apply the categorical approach set
    forth in Taylor v. United States, 
    495 U.S. 575
     (1990).
    Marmolejo-Campos v. Holder, 
    558 F.3d 903
    , 912 (9th Cir.
    2009) (en banc). That approach requires us to determine
    “whether the crime of conviction contains all the elements of
    the generic federal offense.” Renteria-Morales v. Mukasey,
    
    551 F.3d 1076
    , 1081 (9th Cir. 2008).5
    A
    In making this determination, we begin by defining
    the elements of the generic federal offense, 
    id.,
     in this
    criminal offenses, including certain crimes involving moral turpitude—
    applies here. It does not. Section 1252(a)(2)(C) applies to crimes
    involving moral turpitude “for which a sentence of one year or longer
    may be imposed.” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(i)(II); see 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (a)(2)(C). But Silva’s petty-theft convictions were not crimes for
    which such a sentence may be imposed. Rusz v. Ashcroft, 
    376 F.3d 1182
    ,
    1185 (9th Cir. 2004).
    5
    Neither party argues that we should apply the modified categorical
    approach here, see, e.g., Shepard v. United States, 
    544 U.S. 13
    , 26 (2005),
    so we do not address that issue.
    10                        SILVA V. BARR
    case, “crimes involving moral turpitude,” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(ii). We “defer to the BIA’s articulation of
    the generic federal definition ‘if the statute is silent’” and “the
    BIA’s interpretation is ‘based on a permissible construction
    of the statute.’” Renteria-Morales, 
    551 F.3d at 1081
     (quoting
    Parrilla v. Gonzales, 
    414 F.3d 1038
    , 1041 (9th Cir. 2005)).
    The BIA has defined the term “moral turpitude” as referring
    to conduct that is “inherently base, vile, or depraved, and
    contrary to the accepted rules of morality and the duties owed
    between persons or to society in general.” Matter of Silva-
    Trevino, 
    26 I. & N. Dec. 826
    , 833 (BIA 2016) (citation
    omitted). The BIA has further explained that “[t]o involve
    moral turpitude, a crime requires two essential elements:
    reprehensible conduct and a culpable mental state.” 
    Id.
     at 834
    (citing Nino v. Holder, 
    690 F.3d 691
    , 695 (5th Cir. 2012)).
    Although we have framed our definition of “moral turpitude”
    in slightly different terms,6 it “does not differ materially from
    the [BIA’s].” Marmolejo-Campos, 
    558 F.3d at
    910 (citing
    Galeana-Mendoza v. Gonzales, 
    465 F.3d 1054
    , 1058 n.9 (9th
    Cir. 2006)). These definitions, however, are not helpful for
    our task of identifying the elements of a generic “crime
    involving moral turpitude” for purposes of the categorical
    approach, because they fail “to ‘particularize’ the term in any
    meaningful way.” 
    Id.
    Given the difficulty of determining the elements of
    “crimes involving moral turpitude” as opposed to determining
    the elements of a specific criminal offense, the BIA has
    adopted a different approach. Because the phrase “crimes
    6
    “[W]e have traditionally divided crimes involving moral turpitude
    into two basic types: ‘those involving fraud and those involving grave
    acts of baseness or depravity.’” Marmolejo-Campos, 
    558 F.3d at 910
    (quoting Carty v. Ashcroft, 
    395 F.3d 1081
    , 1083 (9th Cir. 2005)).
    SILVA V. BARR                         11
    involving moral turpitude” refers to a category of crimes
    rather than a specific offense with identifiable elements, cf.
    
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43), the BIA has sensibly moved from
    trying to define the phrase itself to instead giving examples of
    the types of offenses that qualify as “crimes involving moral
    turpitude,” see, e.g., Matter of Diaz-Lizarraga, 
    26 I. & N. Dec. 847
    , 847 (BIA 2016). We have deferred to this
    approach when articulated by the BIA in a published opinion.
    Marmolejo-Campos, 
    558 F.3d at
    910–11.
    Using this method of interpretation, the BIA had
    concluded that only certain theft offenses involve moral
    turpitude. For purposes of the statutory section providing that
    the term “aggravated felony” means, among other things, “a
    theft offense (including receipt of stolen property),” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43)(G), the BIA has defined a generic “theft
    offense” as one that involves: “[1] taking of property or an
    exercise of control over property [2] without consent [3] with
    the criminal intent to deprive the owner of rights and benefits
    of ownership, even if such deprivation is less than total or
    permanent.” Gonzales v. Duenas-Alvarez, 
    549 U.S. 183
    , 189
    (2007) (quoting Penuliar v. Gonzales, 
    435 F.3d 961
    , 969 (9th
    Cir. 2006)). For purposes of defining “crimes involving
    moral turpitude,” however, the BIA’s cases from the 1940s
    indicated that only theft offenses which “by their nature
    necessarily constitute theft or stealing as those offenses are
    known at common law” would qualify, Matter of D-, 
    1 I. & N. Dec. 143
    , 145 (BIA 1941), meaning that a theft offense
    did not categorically involve moral turpitude unless it
    “involve[d] a permanent taking as distinguished from a
    temporary one,” Matter of H-, 
    2 I. & N. Dec. 864
    , 865 (BIA
    1947); accord Matter of P-, 
    2 I. & N. Dec. 887
    , 887 (BIA
    1947). At common law, however, there were certain
    situations where persons were found guilty of larceny despite
    12                     SILVA V. BARR
    not having intended a literally permanent deprivation of
    property, see People v. Davis, 
    19 Cal. 4th 301
    , 308–15 (1998)
    (collecting cases), and the BIA had not conclusively resolved
    whether certain theft offenses could involve moral turpitude
    even when a person did not intend a literally permanent
    deprivation of property, see Matter of Jurado-Delgado, 
    24 I. & N. Dec. 29
    , 33 (BIA 2006) (“We need not decide whether
    the premise of the respondent’s argument is correct, i.e., that
    if the offense required only an intent to temporarily deprive
    the owner of the use or benefit of the property taken, the
    crime would not be one of moral turpitude.”).
    Against this backdrop, the BIA reexamined the elements
    of a theft offense involving moral turpitude in Matter of Diaz-
    Lizarraga. In doing so, the BIA explained that its “purpose
    in adopting the ‘intent to permanently deprive’ requirement
    was to distinguish between substantial and reprehensible
    deprivations of an owner’s property on the one hand and, on
    the other, mere de minimis takings in which the owner’s
    property rights are compromised little, if at all.” Matter of
    Diaz-Lizarraga, 26 I. & N. Dec. at 850. Since its early
    decisions, the BIA observed, criminal law had evolved, and
    most jurisdictions had abandoned the “traditional dichotomy
    of permanent versus temporary takings.” Id. at 851.
    Accordingly, the BIA updated its jurisprudence to reflect the
    majority of states and the Model Penal Code, and held that “a
    theft offense is a crime involving moral turpitude if it
    involves an intent to deprive the owner of his property either
    permanently or under circumstances where the owner’s
    property rights are substantially eroded.” Id. at 853. Under
    this definition, a theft offense may involve moral turpitude
    “despite the fact that it does not require the accused to intend
    a literally permanent taking.” Id. at 852 (emphasis omitted).
    Further, the BIA stated that “to the extent that any of our
    SILVA V. BARR                       13
    prior decisions have required a literal intent to permanently
    deprive in order for a theft offense to be a crime involving
    moral turpitude, those decisions are overruled.” Id. at 855.
    We subsequently held that the BIA’s decision to
    “abandon the literally-permanent deprivation test” constituted
    an abrupt change in law that would impose “a new and severe
    burden” if applied to persons who were convicted while the
    “old rule was extant.” Garcia-Martinez v. Sessions, 
    886 F.3d 1291
    , 1295–96 (9th Cir. 2018). Accordingly, we held that the
    BIA’s new rule would not apply to persons who were
    convicted before November 16, 2016, the date on which the
    BIA issued its decision in Matter of Diaz-Lizarraga. Id.
    at 1296. In short, under Garcia-Martinez, the elements of a
    generic theft offense involving moral turpitude for
    convictions before November 16, 2016 are: (1) the taking of
    property or an exercise of control over property (2) without
    consent and (3) with the intent of causing a permanent
    deprivation of the property. See id. But for convictions after
    November 16, 2016, the third element becomes: “[with the]
    intent to deprive the owner of his property either permanently
    or under circumstances where the owner’s property rights are
    substantially eroded.” Matter of Diaz-Lizarraga, 26 I. & N.
    Dec. at 852–53.
    B
    Having identified the BIA’s interpretation of a generic
    theft offense involving moral turpitude, we turn to the second
    step of the categorical approach, identifying the elements of
    the specific crime of conviction. See Renteria-Morales,
    
    551 F.3d at 1081
    . To determine the elements of a state
    statute, “we may consider the interpretation of the statute
    14                     SILVA V. BARR
    provided by state courts.” United States v. Perez, 
    932 F.3d 782
    , 785 (9th Cir. 2019).
    Section 484(a) of the California Penal Code provides, in
    pertinent part, “Every person who shall feloniously steal,
    take, carry, lead, or drive away the personal property of
    another . . . is guilty of theft.” 
    Cal. Pen. Code § 484
    (a). In
    1993, a California appellate court held that “[a] person who
    intends only to temporarily deprive an owner of property,
    albeit while acquiring or depriving the owner of the main
    value of the property, does not intend to permanently deprive
    the owner of the property and therefore does not have the
    intent to commit theft, as that crime is defined under
    California law.” People v. Marquez, 
    16 Cal. App. 4th 115
    ,
    123 (1993) (emphasis omitted).
    The California Supreme Court subsequently cast doubt on
    this statement of law. See Davis, 
    19 Cal. 4th at 318
    . In
    Davis, the California Supreme Court explained in dicta that
    section 484(a) includes the intent to “deprive the owner
    permanently of possession of the property,” but “[t]he word
    ‘permanently,’ as used here is not to be taken literally,” 
    id. at 307
     (citation omitted), and temporary takings could amount
    to theft in some circumstances, 
    id.
     at 307 & n.4. In support
    of this, Davis explained that section 484(a) “is declaratory of
    the common law,” 
    id.
     at 304 n.1, and cited cases where
    defendants were convicted of larceny even though they did
    not intend a literally permanent deprivation, 
    id.
     at 308–15.
    An appellate court subsequently applied Davis’s dicta and
    held that “an intent by one to do less than retain property
    permanently will constitute theft when the owner’s property
    was dealt with in such a way that there was a substantial risk
    of permanent loss.” People v. Zangari, 
    89 Cal. App. 4th 1436
    , 1447 (2001).
    SILVA V. BARR                        15
    Finally, the California Supreme Court resolved the
    disagreement between Marquez and Zangari, and adopted the
    dicta in Davis. See People v. Avery, 
    27 Cal. 4th 49
    , 55
    (2002). Avery held that for purposes of section 484(a), “the
    intent to deprive the owner of property only temporarily, but
    for so extended a period of time as to deprive the owner of a
    major portion of its value or enjoyment, satisf[ies] the
    California requirement of intent to deprive the owner of the
    property permanently.” 
    Id.
     at 54–55. As in Davis, the
    California Supreme Court explained that this was the intent
    required to commit larceny at common law. 
    Id. at 58
    . In
    short, a person could be convicted under section 484(a) even
    if that person did not intend to effect a literally permanent
    taking of property. 
    Id. at 55
    .
    C
    Under the categorical approach, the next step is to
    determine “whether the elements of the alien’s state statute of
    conviction criminalize more conduct than, or the same
    conduct as, the elements of a generic federal offense.” Diego
    v. Sessions, 
    857 F.3d 1005
    , 1009 (9th Cir. 2017). If the
    elements of the specific crime of conviction criminalize the
    same or less conduct than the generic offense, the specific
    crime of conviction categorically qualifies as a crime
    involving moral turpitude. See 
    id.
    If we were writing on a clean slate, the third step would
    proceed as follows. Silva was convicted of violating section
    484(a) of the California Penal Code in 1998, 2004, and 2007.
    According to Garcia-Martinez, at those times, the BIA’s
    generic definition of a theft offense involving moral turpitude
    consisted of the following elements: (1) the taking of
    property or an exercise of control over property (2) without
    16                          SILVA V. BARR
    consent and (3) with the intent to permanently deprive the
    owner of the property. See 886 F.3d at 1296. But by 1998 it
    was questionable whether a violation of section 484(a)
    required that the offender intend a literally permanent
    deprivation of property, see Davis, 19 Cal 4th at 307, and by
    2004, it was clear that section 484(a) did not require such an
    intent, see Avery, 
    27 Cal. 4th at 55
    . Therefore, at the time of
    at least two of Silva’s offenses, section 484(a) criminalized
    more conduct than the BIA’s generic theft offense involving
    moral turpitude, and so the state statute did not categorically
    define a crime involving moral turpitude. See Garcia-
    Martinez, 886 F.3d at 1296.7 Under this analysis, Silva
    would not be removable under 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(ii)
    because he was not convicted “of two or more crimes
    involving moral turpitude.”
    D
    We are not, however, writing on a clean slate. Before
    Avery was decided, we held that a conviction under section
    484(a) for petty theft qualified as a crime involving moral
    turpitude. See United States v. Esparza-Ponce 
    193 F.3d 1133
    , 1136 (9th Cir. 1999). We reached this conclusion
    without delving into the question whether the intent
    requirement in section 484(a) criminalized more conduct than
    the BIA’s definition of the intent requirement for a theft
    7
    The outcome may be different today given that the BIA’s current
    interpretation of a theft offense involving moral turpitude does not require
    an intent to effect a literally permanent taking. See Matter of Diaz-
    Lizarraga, 26 I. & N. Dec. at 852–53 (holding that “a theft offense is a
    crime involving moral turpitude if it involves an intent to deprive the
    owner of his property either permanently or under circumstances where
    the owner’s property rights are substantially eroded,” which does not
    require “a literally permanent taking” (emphasis omitted)).
    SILVA V. BARR                         17
    offense involving moral turpitude. After Avery ruled that
    section 484(a) does not require an intent to effect a literally
    permanent deprivation, 
    27 Cal. 4th at 55
    , we continued to rely
    on Esparza-Ponce, see Castillo-Cruz, 
    581 F.3d at 1159
    ;
    Flores Juarez v. Mukasey, 
    530 F.3d 1020
    , 1022 (9th Cir.
    2008) (per curiam). In Flores Juarez, decided six years after
    Avery, the petitioner was “convicted of three separate petty
    theft offenses in violation of California Penal Code §§ 484
    and 488.” 
    530 F.3d at 1022
    . Without mentioning Avery, we
    relied on Esparza-Ponce to conclude that “[p]etty theft is a
    crime involving moral turpitude.” 
    Id.
     And in Castillo-Cruz,
    decided seven years after Avery, we stated that petty theft in
    violation of section 484(a) was a crime involving moral
    turpitude because it required “the specific intent to deprive
    the victim of his property permanently.” 
    581 F.3d at 1160
    (citation omitted).
    Garcia-Martinez puts our conclusions in Esparza-Ponce,
    Flores Juarez, and Castillo-Cruz in question, because these
    opinions failed to analyze the potential distinction between
    the intent requirement in section 484(a) and the BIA’s
    articulation of the intent required for a theft offense involving
    moral turpitude before Matter of Diaz Lizarraga. But we are
    nevertheless bound by our precedent. “[T]he first panel to
    consider an issue sets the law not only for all the inferior
    courts in the circuit, but also future panels of the court of
    appeals.” Hart v. Massanari, 
    266 F.3d 1155
    , 1171 (9th Cir.
    2001). In our circuit, a three-judge panel must apply binding
    precedent even when it is clearly wrong because (for
    example) it failed to recognize an intervening change in the
    law. See United States v. Contreras, 
    593 F.3d 1135
    , 1136
    (9th Cir. 2010) (en banc) (holding that a three-judge panel
    lacked authority to overrule decisions that failed to recognize
    an intervening amendment to a sentencing guideline). Only
    18                         SILVA V. BARR
    an en banc court has the power to fix these errors. See Sierra
    Forest Legacy v. Sherman, 
    646 F.3d 1161
    , 1189 (9th Cir.
    2011). A three-judge panel can reconsider the law of the
    circuit only when “the relevant court of last resort” has
    “undercut the theory or reasoning underlying the prior circuit
    precedent in such a way that the cases are clearly
    irreconcilable,” Miller v. Gammie, 
    335 F.3d 889
    , 900 (9th
    Cir.2003) (en banc), or when a three-judge panel must follow
    an agency construction entitled to Chevron deference rather
    than a prior judicial interpretation of an ambiguous statute,
    see Nat’l Cable & Telecomms. Ass’n v. Brand X Internet
    Servs., 
    545 U.S. 967
    , 982 (2005).
    Because Avery predates Castillo-Cruz and Flores Juarez,
    there is no “intervening decision on controlling state law by
    a state court of last resort,” Gammie, 
    335 F.3d at 893
    , and we
    are “bound to reach the same result” as our precedent,
    Massanari, 
    266 F.3d at 1170
    . We therefore conclude that
    Silva’s three separate violations of section 484(a) constitute
    crimes involving moral turpitude. See, e.g., Castillo-Cruz,
    
    581 F.3d at 1159
    . Accordingly, the BIA did not err in relying
    on our binding precedent to conclude that Silva was
    removable on the ground that he was “convicted of two or
    more crimes involving moral turpitude.”              
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(ii).8
    8
    Silva’s argument that the phrase “crimes involving moral turpitude”
    is unconstitutionally vague is foreclosed by our recent opinion in
    Martinez-de Ryan v. Whitaker, 
    909 F.3d 247
    , 251–52 (9th Cir. 2018), cert.
    denied sub nom. Martinez-de Ryan v. Barr, 
    140 S. Ct. 134
     (2019).
    Although Silva purports to raise a new argument regarding why the phrase
    is void for vagueness, we are bound by prior circuit law even when a new
    litigant raises arguments that are “characterized differently or more
    persuasively.” United States v. Ramos-Medina, 
    706 F.3d 932
    , 939 (9th
    Cir. 2013).
    SILVA V. BARR                                19
    III
    We next turn to the BIA’s denial of Silva’s motion to
    reopen. Although Silva did not seek relief from removal at
    his initial hearing, an alien may move to reopen proceedings
    for the purpose of submitting new applications for relief. See
    8 U.S.C. § 1229a(c)(7); 
    8 C.F.R. § 1003.2
    (c)(1). We review
    the denial of a motion to reopen for an abuse of discretion and
    reverse only if the BIA’s decision was “arbitrary, irrational,
    or contrary to law.” Valeriano v. Gonzales, 
    474 F.3d 669
    ,
    672 (9th Cir. 2007) (citation omitted).
    Where, as here, the motion to reopen is based on changed
    circumstances in the country to which removal has been
    ordered, the movant must: (1) produce evidence that
    conditions have changed in the country of removal,
    (2) demonstrate that the evidence is material, (3) show that
    the evidence was not available and would not have been
    discovered or presented at the previous hearing, and
    (4) demonstrate that the new evidence, when considered
    together with the evidence presented at the original hearing,
    would establish prima facie eligibility for the relief sought.
    See 8 U.S.C. 1229a(c)(7)(ii); 
    8 C.F.R. § 1003.2
    (c)(1);
    Agonafer v. Sessions, 
    859 F.3d 1198
    , 1204 (9th Cir. 2017).9
    9
    Section 1229a(c)(7) provides, “There is no time limit on the filing
    of a motion to reopen if the basis of the motion is to apply for relief under
    sections 1158 [asylum] or 1231(b)(3) [withholding of removal] of this title
    and is based on changed country conditions arising in the country of
    nationality or the country to which removal has been ordered, if such
    evidence is material and was not available and would not have been
    discovered or presented at the previous proceeding.” 8 U.S.C.
    § 1229a(c)(7)(ii) (footnote omitted). The regulations governing such
    20                          SILVA V. BARR
    Here, the BIA denied the motion to reopen on the ground
    that Silva had not established the fourth prong: that the new
    evidence would establish a prima facie case for the relief
    sought. Therefore, our review is limited to that ground. See
    Navas v. INS, 
    217 F.3d 646
    , 658 n.16 (9th Cir. 2000). To
    establish a prima facie case, the movant must adduce
    evidence that, along with the facts already in the record, “will
    support the desired finding if evidence to the contrary is
    disregarded.” Maroufi v. INS, 
    772 F.2d 597
    , 599 (9th Cir.
    1985); see also Sakhavat v. INS, 
    796 F.2d 1201
    , 1204 (9th
    Cir. 1986) (stating that, at the motion-to-reopen stage, the
    BIA must determine whether the movant’s affidavits “on their
    face cumulatively establish a clear probability” that he is
    entitled to the relief sought). The BIA may not make
    credibility determinations on motions to reopen, Yang v.
    Lynch, 
    822 F.3d 504
    , 509 (9th Cir. 2016), and “must accept
    as true the facts asserted by the [movant], unless they are
    ‘inherently unbelievable,’” Agonafer, 859 F.3d at 1203
    (quoting Limsico v. INS, 
    951 F.2d 210
    , 213 (9th Cir. 1991)).10
    Nevertheless, “[c]ourts have recognized that a prima facie
    case of the clear probability of persecution cannot be
    established from speculative conclusions or vague
    assertions.” Maroufi, 
    772 F.2d at 599
    ; see also Nagoulko v.
    INS, 
    333 F.3d 1012
    , 1018 (9th Cir. 2003) (holding that an
    alien’s fear of a hostile political party regaining power in her
    country is “too speculative to be credited as a basis for fear of
    motions appear at 
    8 C.F.R. § 1003.2
    . We have held that these regulations
    also apply to claims under the Convention Against Torture. Go v. Holder,
    
    744 F.3d 604
    , 609 (9th Cir. 2014).
    10
    “[W]here some of the evidence is developed at a hearing, the [BIA]
    is of course free to interpret that evidence free from inferences in favor of
    the moving party.” Limsico, 
    951 F.2d at 213
     (citation omitted).
    SILVA V. BARR                        21
    future persecution” absent “specific evidence” suggesting that
    such an event will occur). Therefore, “[a]ffidavits submitted
    in support of motions to reopen deportation proceedings must
    contain specific facts in order to carry the burden of
    establishing a clear probability of persecution.” Maroufi,
    
    772 F.2d at 600
    .
    We turn to the question whether Silva established a prima
    facie case for asylum or withholding of removal. Silva does
    not contend that he suffered past persecution in the
    Philippines, so to qualify for asylum he must demonstrate “a
    well-founded fear of future persecution” in the Philippines,
    
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.13
    (b), “on account of race, religion,
    nationality, membership in a particular social group, or
    political opinion,” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(42). In the absence of
    past persecution, an applicant must prove both a subjective
    fear of future persecution, 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.13
    (b)(2)(i)(A), and
    an objectively “reasonable possibility” of future persecution,
    
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.13
    (b)(2)(i)(B). “The objective component
    requires a showing, by credible, direct, and specific evidence
    in the record, of facts that would support a reasonable fear of
    persecution.” Limsico, 
    951 F.2d at 212
     (citation omitted).
    “Speculation on what could occur is not enough to establish
    a reasonable fear.” Bartolome v. Sessions, 
    904 F.3d 803
    , 814
    (9th Cir. 2018).
    Section 1231(b)(3) provides for withholding of removal.
    
    8 U.S.C. § 1231
    (b)(3). To qualify for this form of relief, the
    applicant must demonstrate that it is “more likely than not
    that he or she would be persecuted on account of race,
    religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group,
    or political opinion upon removal to [the country in
    question].” 
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.16
    (b)(2). The “more likely than
    not” standard for withholding of removal is “more stringent”
    22                     SILVA V. BARR
    than the “reasonable possibility” standard for asylum, and
    therefore an applicant who is unable to show a “reasonable
    possibility” of future persecution “necessarily fails to satisfy
    the more stringent standard for withholding of removal.”
    Mansour v. Ashcroft, 
    390 F.3d 667
    , 673 (9th Cir. 2004);
    accord Duran-Rodriguez v. Barr, 
    918 F.3d 1025
    , 1029 (9th
    Cir. 2019).
    Here, the BIA did not abuse its discretion in concluding
    that Silva failed to establish a prima facie case for asylum or
    withholding of removal. In his declaration, Silva speculated
    that someone in the Philippines could report his past drug use
    to the government, or that he might succumb to the
    temptation to begin using drugs again. Silva did not,
    however, submit any “specific evidence” that such events
    might occur, and these possibilities are “too speculative to be
    credited as a basis for fear of future persecution.” Nagoulko,
    
    333 F.3d at 1018
    . Accordingly, the BIA did not abuse its
    discretion in concluding that Silva failed to establish a prima
    facie case for asylum. Therefore, he also “necessarily fail[ed]
    to satisfy the more stringent standard for withholding of
    removal.” Mansour, 
    390 F.3d at 673
    .
    We next turn to the question whether Silva established a
    prima facie case for protection under the Convention Against
    Torture (CAT). To qualify for CAT protection, the applicant
    must “establish that it is more likely than not that he or she
    would be tortured if removed to [the country in question].”
    
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.16
    (c)(2); accord Duran-Rodriguez, 918 F.3d
    at 1029.
    It was neither arbitrary nor irrational for the BIA to
    conclude that Silva’s speculations in his motion to reopen and
    declaration were insufficient to show “that it is more likely
    SILVA V. BARR                         23
    than not that he would be tortured if removed to [the
    Philippines].” Duran-Rodriguez, 918 F.3d at 1029 (citing
    
    8 C.F.R. § 1208.16
    (c)(2)); see Delgado-Ortiz v. Holder,
    
    600 F.3d 1148
    , 1152 (9th Cir. 2010) (holding that generalized
    evidence of crime in Mexico was insufficient to establish
    prima facie eligibility for CAT protection). Therefore, the
    BIA did not abuse its discretion in concluding that Silva
    failed to establish a prima facie case for CAT protection.
    PETITIONS DENIED.
    BERZON, Circuit Judge, concurring:
    I concur in the majority opinion in full. I write separately
    to reiterate yet again my view that the phrase “crime
    involving moral turpitude” is unconstitutionally vague. See
    Barbosa v. Barr, 
    926 F.3d 1053
    , 1060–61 (9th Cir. 2019)
    (Berzon, J., concurring); Jauregui-Cardenas v. Barr, 
    946 F.3d 1116
    , 1121 (9th Cir. 2020) (Berzon, J., concurring). The
    majority opinion provides yet another example of our “failed
    enterprise” to consistently determine whether a crime
    involves moral turpitude when there is no “coherent criteria”
    as to what that phrase encompasses. Islas-Veloz v. Whitaker,
    
    914 F.3d 1249
    , 1258–61 (9th Cir. 2019) (Fletcher, J.,
    concurring). As “persistent efforts” have failed “to establish
    a standard” of what a “crime involving moral turpitude” is, it
    is time to revisit whether this phrase is unconstitutionally
    vague. See Johnson v. United States, —U.S.—, 
    135 S. Ct. 2551
    , 2558 (2015) (internal citation and quotation marks
    omitted).