Epic v. Ann Carlson ( 2020 )


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  •                 FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION                 No. 19-17479
    INFORMATION CENTER,
    Plaintiff-Appellant,         D.C. No.
    3:19-cv-06643-
    v.                          EMC
    ANN CARLSON, in her official
    capacity as the Forest Supervisor of       OPINION
    the Mendocino National Forest;
    UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE,
    Defendants-Appellees,
    SIERRA PACIFIC INDUSTRIES,
    Intervenor-Defendant-Appellee.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of California
    Edward M. Chen, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted May 27, 2020
    San Francisco, California
    Filed August 3, 2020
    2                         EPIC V. CARLSON
    Before: William A. Fletcher and Kenneth K. Lee, Circuit
    Judges, and Benjamin H. Settle,* District Judge.
    Opinion by Judge W. Fletcher;
    Dissent by Judge Lee
    SUMMARY**
    Environmental Law
    The panel reversed the district court’s order denying
    Environmental Protection Information Center (“EPIC”)’s
    request for a preliminary injunction, challenging the United
    States Forest Service’s approval of the Ranch Fire Roadside
    Hazard Tree Project in Northern California (the “Project”).
    The Project authorized the Forest Service to solicit bids
    from private logging companies for the right to fell and
    remove large fire-damaged trees up to 200 feet from either
    side of roads in the Mendocino National Forest. Under the
    National Environmental Policy Act, rather than preparing an
    Environmental Assessment or an Environmental Impact
    Statement for the Project, the Forest Service relied on a
    categorical exclusion (“CE”) for road repair and maintenance
    in 36 C.F.R. § 220.6(d)(4).
    *
    The Honorable Benjamin H. Settle, United States District Judge for
    the Western District of Washington, sitting by designation.
    **
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It has
    been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    EPIC V. CARLSON                        3
    The panel discussed the requirements for a preliminary
    injunction. First, the panel held that EPIC was likely to
    succeed on the merits of its claim that the Forest Service
    erred in relying on the CE for road repair and maintenance.
    The panel noted that the rationale for a CE was that a project
    that will only have a minimal impact on the environment
    should be allowed to proceed without an environmental
    impact statement or an environmental assessment. The CE
    upon which the Forest Service relied authorized projects for
    such things as grading and resurfacing of existing roads,
    cleaning existing culverts, and clearing roadside brush. The
    panel concluded that under no reasonable interpretation of the
    language of 36 C.F.R. § 220.6(d)(4) did the Project come
    within the CE for “repair and maintenance” of roads. Second,
    the panel held that EPIC submitted evidence of irreparable,
    although limited, harm. Third, the panel held that the balance
    of equities and the public interest weighed in EPIC’s favor.
    The panel reversed the denial of the requested preliminary
    injunction, and remanded for further proceedings.
    Judge Lee dissented. He would hold that the district court
    did not abuse its discretion in denying EPIC’s request for a
    preliminary injunction, and he would defer to the agency’s
    actions within its expertise.
    COUNSEL
    Matt Kenna (argued), Public Interest Environmental Law,
    Durango, Colorado; René P. Voss, Natural Resources Law,
    San Anselmo, California; for Plaintiff-Appellant.
    Jeffrey Bossert Clark (argued), Assistant Attorney General;
    Eric Grant, Deputy Assistant Attorney General; Sally J.
    4                    EPIC V. CARLSON
    Sullivan, John P. Tustin, and Jeffrey S. Beelaert, Attorneys;
    Environment and Natural Resources Division, Washington,
    D.C.; for Defendants-Appellees.
    Sara Ghafouri (argued) and Lawson E. Fite, American Forest
    Resource Council, Portland, Oregon; Tyler Welti, Venable
    LLP, San Francisco, California; for Intervenor-Defendant-
    Appellee.
    OPINION
    W. FLETCHER, Circuit Judge:
    In July 2018, the Ranch Fire burned more than 400,000
    acres in Northern California, including almost 300,000 acres
    in the Mendocino National Forest. After the fire, the United
    States Forest Service approved the Ranch Fire Roadside
    Hazard Tree Project (the “Project”). The Project authorizes
    the Forest Service to solicit bids from private logging
    companies for the right to fell and remove large fire-damaged
    trees up to 200 feet from either side of roads in the National
    Forest. Rather than preparing an Environmental Assessment
    (“EA”) or an Environmental Impact Statement (“EIS”) for the
    Project, the Forest Service relied on a categorical exclusion
    (“CE”) for road repair and maintenance in 36 C.F.R.
    § 220.6(d)(4).         Plaintiff Environmental Protection
    Information Center (“EPIC”) challenges the Forest Service
    action, contending that the Project does not qualify for the
    exclusion. The district court agreed with the Forest Service,
    holding that the Project qualified for the exclusion, and
    denied a preliminary injunction. We reverse and remand.
    EPIC V. CARLSON                         5
    I. Statutory and Regulatory Framework
    The National Environmental Policy Act (“NEPA”)
    “requires that federal agencies perform environmental
    analysis before taking any ‘major Federal actions
    significantly affecting the quality of the human
    environment.’” Ctr. for Biological Diversity v. Salazar,
    
    706 F.3d 1085
    , 1094 (9th Cir. 2013) (quoting NEPA at
    42 U.S.C. § 4332(2)(C)). “When the Government conducts
    an activity, NEPA itself does not mandate particular results.
    Instead, NEPA imposes only procedural requirements to
    ensure that the agency, in reaching its decision, will have
    available, and will carefully consider, detailed information
    concerning significant environmental impacts.” Winter v.
    Nat. Res. Def. Council, 
    555 U.S. 7
    , 23 (2008) (internal
    quotation marks and citations omitted).
    An agency can comply with NEPA in three ways. It can
    prepare an EIS; it can prepare an EA; or it can invoke a CE.
    An EIS is the most searching review. It is required for any
    action “significantly affecting the quality of the human
    environment.” 42 U.S.C. § 4332(2)(C). An EA is less
    searching. Its central function is to determine whether an EIS
    is required. 40 C.F.R. § 1508.9. A CE allows an agency to
    avoid preparing either an EIS or an EA. CEs are appropriate
    for “actions which do not individually or cumulatively have
    a significant effect on the human environment and which
    have been found to have no such effect.” 40 C.F.R. § 1508.4.
    II. Stated Purpose and Criteria of Project
    According to Ann D. Carlson, Forest Supervisor for the
    Mendocino National Forest, “The primary purpose of the
    Project is to reduce current and potential safety hazards along
    6                     EPIC V. CARLSON
    roads [in the National Forest] to create a safe transportation
    system. . . . [T]he Project plans to remove hazard trees
    through a series of salvage sales.” Carlson stated in a
    declaration in the district court that the Project’s “[r]oadside
    hazard treatments involve removing only trees that constitute
    hazards to the selected roads . . . and that have the potential
    to reach roadways.”
    The vegetation in the burned area of the Mendocino
    National Forest comprises a variety of forest types, including
    mixed conifer, oak woodlands, pine, and Douglas fir. A
    logging company whose bid has been accepted may fell
    “merchantable hazard trees” of fourteen or more inches
    diameter at breast height (“DBH”) that are “within one and a
    half tree-heights” of the road. Any tree within 200 feet of the
    centerline of the road that has been partially burned and has
    a 50 percent or higher probability of mortality is eligible for
    felling. For “the roads that run adjacent to the Snow
    Mountain Wilderness,” the Project allows cutting of eligible
    trees within 100, rather than 200, feet of the centerline. In
    total, the Project authorizes the logging of millions of board
    feet of timber on nearly 4,700 acres of National Forest land.
    Anthony Saba, a forester/silviculturist employed by the
    Forest Service, stated in a declaration that merchantable trees
    in the Project areas range from 60 to 185 feet in height.
    According to Saba, in one area of the Project, the average tree
    height is 100 feet; in another, the average height is 111 feet.
    Under the criteria of the Project, a logging company may cut
    a 100-foot tree located as far as 150 feet from the road, or a
    111-foot tree located as far as 166 feet from the road. At the
    outer limit of the Project area, a company may cut even taller
    trees. If a 100-foot tree located 150 feet from the road were
    to fall directly toward the road at a 90 degree angle, the tip of
    EPIC V. CARLSON                        7
    the tree would come to the ground 50 feet from the road. If
    a 111-foot tree located 165 feet from the road were to fall in
    the same manner, its tip would come to the ground 54 feet
    from the road. If the trees were to fall at any other angle,
    their tips would come to the ground at greater distances from
    the centerline.
    III. Categorical Exclusions
    There are two categorical exclusions potentially relevant
    to the Project. One is for “repair and maintenance” of roads
    in the National Forest. The other is for “salvage” logging of
    “fire-damaged trees” on tracts of 250 acres or less. The
    Forest Service prepared neither an EIS nor an EA for the
    Project. Instead, it relied on the first CE.
    The first CE covers:
    (4) Repair and maintenance of roads, trails,
    and landline boundaries. Examples include
    but are not limited to:
    (i) Authorizing a user to grade, resurface,
    and clean the culverts of an established
    NFS road;
    (ii) Grading a road and clearing the
    roadside of brush without the use of
    herbicides;
    (iii) Resurfacing a road to its original
    condition;
    8                    EPIC V. CARLSON
    (iv) Pruning vegetation and cleaning
    culverts along a trail and grooming the
    surface of the trail; and
    (v) Surveying, painting, and posting
    landline boundaries.
    36 C.F.R. § 220.6(d)(4). Neither a “case file and decision
    memo” nor a “supporting record” is required in order to
    invoke the CE under § 220.6(d)(4).
    The second CE covers:
    (13) Salvage of dead and/or dying trees not to
    exceed 250 acres, requiring no more than
    ½ mile of temporary road construction. The
    proposed action may include incidental
    removal of live or dead trees for landings,
    skid trails, and road clearing. Examples
    include, but are not limited to:
    (i) Harvest of a portion of a stand
    damaged by a wind or ice event and
    construction of a short temporary road to
    access the damaged trees, and
    (ii) Harvest of fire-damaged trees.
    36 C.F.R. § 220.6(e)(13). A “case file and decision memo”
    and a “supporting record” are required in order to invoke the
    CE under § 220.6(e)(13).
    EPIC V. CARLSON                         9
    IV. Procedural Background
    EPIC filed suit in federal district court on October 16,
    2019, contending that the Project does not qualify for the road
    maintenance and repair CE. As of November 21, 2019,
    logging had begun in two areas of the Project, and the Forest
    Service had finalized bidding on a third area. Bidding had
    not yet begun on the other areas in the Project. The district
    court entered a temporary restraining order (“TRO”) pending
    its hearing on EPIC’s request for a preliminary injunction.
    On December 4, 2019, the court denied the preliminary
    injunction and lifted the TRO. EPIC appealed, and we set an
    accelerated briefing schedule. We heard oral argument on
    May 27, 2020.
    V. Standard of Review
    When deciding whether to issue a preliminary injunction,
    a district court considers whether the requesting party has
    shown “[1] that he is likely to succeed on the merits, [2] that
    he is likely to suffer irreparable harm in the absence of
    preliminary relief, [3] that the balance of equities tips in his
    favor, and [4] that an injunction is in the public interest.”
    
    Winter, 555 U.S. at 20
    . Likelihood of success on the merits
    is a threshold inquiry and is the most important factor. See,
    e.g., Edge v. City of Everett, 
    929 F.3d 657
    , 663 (9th Cir.
    2019).
    We review a grant or denial of a preliminary injunction
    for abuse of discretion. See, e.g., United States v. California,
    
    921 F.3d 865
    , 877 (9th Cir. 2019). “The district court’s
    interpretation of the underlying legal principles, however, is
    subject to de novo review and a district court abuses its
    discretion when it makes an error of law.” Sw. Voter
    10                    EPIC V. CARLSON
    Registration Educ. Project v. Shelley, 
    344 F.3d 914
    , 918 (9th
    Cir. 2003) (en banc). Under the abuse-of-discretion standard,
    “as long as the district court got the law right, it will not be
    reversed simply because the appellate court would have
    arrived at a different result if it had applied the law to the
    facts of the case.” Melendres v. Arpaio, 
    695 F.3d 990
    , 999
    (9th Cir. 2012) (citations and alterations omitted).
    VI. Discussion
    A. Likely Success on the Merits
    With respect to the Project at issue, the CE for road repair
    and maintenance is unambiguous. The CE applies to “repair
    and maintenance of roads, trails, and landline boundaries.”
    “Repair” and “maintenance” are common words with well-
    understood ordinary meanings. In order to ensure that these
    words are understood in accordance with their ordinary
    meanings rather than as terms of art, the CE provides
    examples. “Repair and maintenance” of roads include
    “grad[ing], resurfac[ing], and clean[ing] the culverts” of a
    road; “grading a road”; “clearing the roadside of brush
    without the use of herbicides”; and “resurfacing a road to its
    original condition.” 36 C.F.R. § 220.6(d)(4)(i)–(iii). The CE
    specifies that the “repair and maintenance” are not limited to
    these examples, but the clear inference (even without
    invoking the principle of ejusdem generis), is that other
    examples should be similar in character to the examples
    provided.
    The question before us is whether an extensive
    commercial logging project that includes felling large,
    partially burned “merchantable” trees—including 100- and
    111-foot trees located 150 and 166 feet from roads, as well as
    EPIC V. CARLSON                         11
    taller trees even farther away—is “repair and maintenance”
    within the meaning of § 220.6(d)(4). In her declaration in the
    district court seeking to justify the “repair and maintenance”
    CE, Forest Supervisor Carlson repeatedly referred to all the
    trees to be felled under the Project as “hazard trees.” While
    all of the trees within the scope of the Project may be
    hazardous in some sense, many of them pose no imminent
    hazard. As described above, a number of the trees will not
    come close to the road even if they fall directly toward it.
    We have no doubt that felling a dangerous dead or dying
    tree right next to the road comes within the scope of the
    “repair and maintenance” CE. But the Project allows the
    felling of many more trees than that. The rationale for a CE
    is that a project that will have only a minimal impact on the
    environment should be allowed to proceed without an EIS or
    and EA. The CE upon which the Forest Service relies
    authorizes projects for such things as grading and resurfacing
    of existing roads, cleaning existing culverts, and clearing
    roadside brush. A CE of such limited scope cannot
    reasonably be interpreted to authorize a Project such as the
    one before us, which allows commercial logging of large
    trees up to 200 feet away from either side of hundreds of
    miles of Forest Service roads.
    Plaintiff EPIC argues that the CE for salvage logging, 36
    C.F.R. § 200.6(e)(13), is the only potentially applicable CE
    for salvage logging of fire-damaged trees. According to
    EPIC, no project that allows salvage logging over an area that
    exceeds 250 acres is eligible for a CE. At an earlier time,
    when the salvage logging CE was first adopted, the Forest
    Service may have agreed with this position, as EPIC
    contends. But it is clear that even if it once agreed, the Forest
    Service no longer agrees. The current position of the Forest
    12                    EPIC V. CARLSON
    Service is that the CEs for road repair and maintenance and
    for salvage logging overlap. That is, in the view of the Forest
    Service, if a project that allows felling of dangerous trees near
    roads comes within the CE for repair and maintenance, that
    CE is available even if the total area of the project is greater
    than 250 acres.
    In the case before us, we need not go so far as EPIC’s
    argument would take us. The Project does not target only
    trees that pose an immediate danger to travelers. We
    therefore need not decide the question that would be
    presented, for example, if a post-fire salvage logging project
    allowed felling of dead and dying trees up to only 20 feet
    back from 100 miles of Forest Service roads, such that the
    area covered by the project would be more than 250 acres.
    Nothing close to that question is now before us.
    The Project at issue provides substantial revenue to the
    Forest Service. It allows logging of commercially valuable
    trees up to 200 feet on either side of the road; allows felling
    of partially burned trees that have a 50 percent or higher
    chance of mortality; allows felling of large trees at such
    distances from the road that their tips will be 50 or more feet
    from the road even if the tree falls directly toward the road;
    and allows logging over an area of approximately 4,700
    acres. Under no reasonable interpretation of its language
    does the Project come within the CE for “repair and
    maintenance” of roads.
    B. Irreparable Harm
    “Ongoing harm to the environment constitutes irreparable
    harm warranting an injunction. When a project may
    significantly degrade some human environmental factor,
    EPIC V. CARLSON                         13
    injunctive relief is appropriate.”      Southeast Alaska
    Conservation Council v. U.S. Army Corps of Eng’rs, 
    472 F.3d 1097
    , 1100 (9th Cir. 2006) (internal quotation marks and
    citations omitted); see also Amoco Prod. Co. v. Vill. of
    Gambell, 
    480 U.S. 531
    , 545 (1987) (noting that
    environmental harm “can seldom be adequately remedied by
    money damages and is often permanent or at least of long
    duration, i.e., irreparable”).
    Kimberly Baker, a member of EPIC, submitted an
    affidavit in the district court stating that her enjoyment of the
    National Forest will be diminished if extensive logging were
    to occur for 200 feet on either side of the roads running
    through the burned area of the National Forest, as would be
    allowed under the Project. She wrote, “[I]f the Forest Service
    were to prepare an Environmental Assessment or
    Environmental Impact Statement, it would have to include
    alternatives to the planned logging. Alternatives . . . could
    include leaving the living trees standing, retaining more trees
    on the downhill side of the road and some of the downed
    hazard logs on the ground, which would be extremely helpful
    to wildlife and soil health and improve my enjoyment of the
    affected areas if such alternatives were chosen.” Baker also
    submitted two research articles addressing the effects of
    logging on post-fire landscapes.
    C. Balance of Equities and the Public Interest
    When “the government is a party, we consider the balance
    of equities and the public interest together.” California v.
    Azar, 
    911 F.3d 558
    , 581 (9th Cir. 2018). If irreparable
    environmental injury “is sufficiently likely,” as in this case,
    “the balance of harms will usually favor the issuance of an
    injunction to protect the environment.” Amoco Prod. Co.,
    14                    EPIC V. 
    CARLSON 480 U.S. at 545
    . We conclude that the balance of the equities
    and the public interest weigh in EPIC’s favor.
    The Forest Service argues that the balance of equities and
    the public interest favor it rather than EPIC. It contends that
    the harm suffered by EPIC and its members is relatively
    minor. The area covered by the Project is on either side of
    roads in the burned areas of the National Forest and is
    therefore easily visible to virtually all visitors to the Forest,
    but the Forest Service points out that it comprises only
    1.6 percent of the total burn area. On the other side of the
    ledger, the Forest Service argues the balance of equities and
    the public interest favor the Service “because [the Project]
    seeks to reduce the threat to public safety and to preserve
    long-term forest health.”
    We of course agree with the Forest Service that public
    safety is important. In part, the Project serves that interest
    directly, to the extent that some of the trees that would be
    felled are undoubtedly dangerous to travelers. But as
    discussed above, the Project allows felling of trees that are at
    such a distance from roads that their tips will never come
    close to the edge of the road, even if the trees fall directly
    toward the road at a 90 degree angle. Further, commercial
    logging companies working under the Project will not fell
    hazardous trees smaller than 14 inches DBH, even if the trees
    are right next to the road. But the Project also indirectly
    serves the interest of public safety. As Forest Supervisor
    Carlson points out in her declaration, revenue from the
    Project will allow the Forest Service to pay for the felling of
    such trees. This is a valid and important point, but we note
    the obvious: A budgetary system that requires the
    authorization of commercial salvage logging operations in
    order to finance work necessary for public safety can put the
    EPIC V. CARLSON                        15
    Forest Service in an awkward and conflicted position in
    deciding whether, and under what conditions, to authorize
    such operations. See Earth Island Inst. v. U.S. Forest Serv.,
    
    351 F.3d 1291
    , 1309 (9th Cir. 2003) (Noonan, J., concurring).
    We also of course agree with the Forest Service that the
    preservation of long-term forest health is important. We are
    not in a position to second-guess the Forest Service as to
    whether the logging authorized by the Project furthers that
    goal, and we defer to the Forest Service’s considered
    judgment that it does.
    In the end, however, we are not persuaded that public
    safety will actually be put at risk by granting the relief EPIC
    seeks. EPIC has never denied the Forest Service’s right to
    rely on the CE for road repair and maintenance in order to fell
    trees next to the road that pose an immediate danger to users
    of the road. To the extent the Forest Service authorizes
    salvage logging that constitutes more than repair and
    maintenance, EPIC seeks only the preparation of an EIS or an
    EA. The Forest Service has not shown that fulfilling its
    obligation to prepare an EIS or an EA is inconsistent with the
    goal of public safety.
    The public interest is served by requiring the Forest
    Service to comply with the law. We have concluded, above,
    that the Project does not qualify for the CE for road
    maintenance and repair. The Forest Service must therefore
    prepare either an EIS or an EA.
    Conclusion
    We conclude that EPIC will succeed on the merits of its
    claim; that it will suffer irreparable, though limited, harm;
    16                     EPIC V. CARLSON
    and that it has demonstrated that the balance of equities and
    the public interest weigh in its favor. We therefore reverse
    the district court’s denial of the requested preliminary
    injunction and remand for further proceedings not
    inconsistent with this opinion.
    REVERSED and REMANDED.
    LEE, Circuit Judge, dissenting:
    The Ranch Fire Roadside Hazard Tree Project (the
    “Project”) may not be optimally designed for the reasons
    outlined by the majority. But big problems often require big
    and imperfect solutions. And under a deferential standard of
    review, we should not second-guess an imperfect plan
    fashioned by the United States Forest Service, even if we
    could have crafted a better tailored one.
    The Ranch Fire burned nearly 410,000 acres of land,
    earning its title as the largest wildfire in California’s history.
    About 288,000 acres of the burned area is in the Mendocino
    National Forest. Over 770 miles of public roads that allow
    visitors to access the Forest for recreation and respite are now
    threatened by charred trees, some of which tower over the
    landscape up to 185 feet in height. If these trees fell on public
    roads, the lives of visitors, first responders, and United States
    Forest Service personnel would be placed in grave danger.
    The Forest Service responded with an imperfect but
    workable solution: Salvage operators will remove at their
    expense dying trees that threaten high-priority roadways and
    pay the Forest Service for that privilege. The Project’s criteria
    EPIC V. CARLSON                         17
    are sufficiently strict, requiring operators to remove only
    what is reasonably necessary to further road safety and
    maintenance. Trees eligible for removal must be 14 inches in
    diameter at breast height, they must be within one and a half
    times their individual height distance from the road, and they
    must have a 50% or greater likelihood of mortality. In other
    words, eligible trees must be large, able to strike the road, and
    at least halfway dead. According to the declaration of
    Mendocino National Forest Supervisor Ann Carlson, timber
    sales are the primary means to fell thousands of hazardous
    trees because it is “highly unlikely” that the Service “could
    obtain sufficient appropriated funds [from Congress] to
    accomplish all project activities.” The Forest Service
    estimates that the cost to the agency would be about
    $5.5 million otherwise.
    While I share majority’s concerns about some aspects of
    the Project, I respectfully dissent because we must defer to
    the Forest Service’s plausible plan and the district court’s
    denial of preliminary injunction.
    * * * * *
    Our review is limited by a double dosage of deference.
    First, we review the district court’s denial of a preliminary
    injunction for abuse of discretion. See United States v.
    California, 
    921 F.3d 865
    , 877 (9th Cir. 2019). This is a highly
    deferential standard. A district court’s decision “will not be
    reversed simply because the appellate court would have
    arrived at a different result if it had applied the law to the
    facts of the case.” Melendres v. Arpaio, 
    695 F.3d 990
    , 999
    (9th Cir. 2012) (citations and alterations omitted).
    18                    EPIC V. CARLSON
    Second, we need to be mindful that our review is further
    limited in a challenge to an agency action. Under the
    Administrative Procedure Act, “[a]n agency’s determination
    that a particular action falls within one of its categorical
    exclusions is reviewed under the arbitrary and capricious
    standard.” Alaska Ctr. for the Env’t v. USFS, 
    189 F.3d 851
    ,
    857 (9th Cir. 1999). Courts uphold agency action unless it is
    “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not
    in accordance with law.” 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A). The standard
    is “highly deferential, presuming the agency action to be valid
    and affirming the agency action if a reasonable basis exists
    for its decision.” Ranchers Cattlemen Action Legal Fund
    United Stockgrowers of Am. v. USDA, 
    499 F.3d 1108
    , 1115
    (9th Cir. 2007) (citation and internal quotation marks
    omitted). A court considers whether “the evidence in the
    administrative record permitted the agency to make the
    decision it did.” Occidental Eng’g Co. v. INS, 
    753 F.2d 766
    ,
    769 (9th Cir. 1985). Above all else, “we do not substitute our
    judgment for that of the agency.” N. Plains Res. Council, Inc.
    v. Surface Transp. Bd., 
    668 F.3d 1067
    , 1074 (9th Cir. 2011)
    (internal citation omitted).
    The district court did not abuse its discretion in
    denying EPIC’s requested preliminary injunction.
    Plaintiffs seeking a preliminary injunction carry a heavy
    burden. A plaintiff must show “[1] that he is likely to succeed
    on the merits, [2] that he is likely to suffer irreparable harm
    in the absence of preliminary relief, [3] that the balance of
    equities tips in his favor, and [4] that an injunction is in the
    public interest.” Winter v. Nat. Res. Def. Council, 
    555 U.S. 7
    ,
    20 (2008). As the majority notes, likelihood of success on the
    merits is most important and typically dispositive. See Edge
    v. City of Everett, 
    929 F.3d 657
    , 663 (9th Cir. 2019). When,
    EPIC V. CARLSON                        19
    as here, “the government is a party, we consider the balance
    of equities and the public interest together.” California v.
    Azar, 
    911 F.3d 558
    , 581 (9th Cir. 2018).
    1. The district court did not abuse its discretion in
    finding that EPIC did not show a likelihood of success
    on the merits.
    The majority questions two aspects of the Project: the
    200-foot project area that extends outward from the
    roadway’s centerline, and the one and a half height modifier
    for determining which trees are potentially capable of striking
    the road. While we can question some of the assumptions and
    analyses provided by the Forest Service, the record shows a
    sufficient basis for the agency’s decisions.
    In his declaration, Anthony Saba, a forester and
    silviculturist for the Forest Service, stated that the 200-foot
    boundary “was intended to capture the heights of most of the
    hazard trees that had the potential to reach the roadways
    within this Project area based on an estimated tree height
    average of approximately 100 feet.” Mr. Saba also noted that
    trees in the Project area vary between 60 and 185 feet in
    height. Thus, if trees exist within the Project area up to
    185 feet in height, then they may threaten a road that has a
    centerline at maximum 200-feet away from such trees and
    thus the 200-foot boundary is reasonable.
    The Forest Service’s reliance on the 1.5 tree height
    distance modifier poses a more difficult question. The
    majority states that it has “no doubt that felling a dangerous
    dead or dying tree right next to the road comes within the
    scope of the ‘repair and maintenance’ CE [categorical
    exclusion]. But the Project allows the felling of many more
    20                    EPIC V. CARLSON
    trees than that.” Maj. Op. at 11. To prove this, the majority
    notes that a 100-foot-tall tree that meets the other criteria is
    eligible for removal if it is within 150 feet of the road. They
    hypothesize that this tree does not threaten the road system
    because even if it fell perpendicular to the road, its tip would
    still land 50 feet away. So, the majority argues, the repair and
    maintenance categorical exclusion does not apply.
    The legitimacy of the tree height modifier thus becomes
    a paramount issue in this case. If the agency reasonably
    concluded that the modifier accurately reflects the potential
    damage area when a tree falls, then the “repair and
    maintenance” categorical exclusion would presumably apply.
    In other words, if the majority’s hypothetical 100-foot tree
    that sits 150 feet from the road poses an actual risk to the road
    system, then the repair and maintenance categorical exclusion
    would cover the felling of that tree.
    The majority concludes, however, that the modifier is not
    legitimate because the hypothetical 100-foot tree would
    extend only 100 feet on the ground once it fell, putting it well
    away from the road. But the agency provided a reasonable
    and plausible — though not indisputable — basis for the
    modifier. Namely, decayed trees can sling detritus like
    branches and limbs when falling; the tree’s final resting place
    on the ground does not reflect a one-to-one relationship with
    its height. The Forest Service’s Hazard Tree Guidelines note:
    “When a tree or tree part fails, it may strike other trees or
    debris on the ground and fling material a considerable
    distance.” These conditions can be exacerbated by other
    factors, too, like wind, breakage forces, and slope. I agree
    with the majority that there are a limited number of angles
    that a tree might fall to pose an actual threat to a public road.
    But we cannot know the exact direction a tree will fall until
    EPIC V. CARLSON                        21
    it does. While we may question whether the Forest Service’s
    use of a 1.5 tree height modifier reflects the most accurate or
    efficient criterion, it is not arbitrary or capricious and we
    must defer to the agency’s expertise in this area. See Save the
    Peaks Coal. v. USFS, 
    669 F.3d 1025
    , 1035 (9th Cir. 2012)
    (“Under the APA, [an] agency’s decision may be set aside
    only if it is arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or
    otherwise not in accordance with law.” (emphasis added)
    (internal citations omitted)); see also 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A).
    Moreover, the record convinces me — as it did the district
    court, which believed the Project “impos[es] a meaningful
    limit against a free-for-all harvest” — that the Service does
    not intend to mark every eligible tree in the Project area. For
    example, Mr. Saba stated in his declaration that otherwise
    eligible trees would not be marked for removal by the Forest
    Service where geographic blockages (like rock outcroppings)
    would prevent the trees from striking a road. He stated that
    “[t]ree marking crews are trained to account for these
    variances, and to only mark trees meeting the criteria that
    have an actual potential to impact Forest roadways.”
    While the Project may be imperfect and we may question
    the wisdom of some of the assumptions, I cannot say that the
    Forest Service’s decisions were arbitrary or capricious. Nor
    can I say that district court abused its discretion in finding
    that EPIC failed to show that it was likely to succeed on the
    merits of their claim.
    22                    EPIC V. CARLSON
    2. Irreparable harm, the balance of equities, and the
    preliminary injunction being in the public’s interest
    are closer calls than the majority recognizes.
    The district court did not abuse its discretion in finding
    that EPIC failed to show a likelihood of success on the merits
    of its claim. That alone should end our inquiry. See 
    Edge, 929 F.3d at 663
    . But the remaining preliminary injunction
    factors are a closer call than the majority recognizes.
    The majority correctly notes that ongoing harm to the
    environment may constitute irreparable harm, but it is not
    clear that Project will lead to such damage. While some
    portions of the Project overlap with critical habitat for spotted
    owls, a Forest Service biologist concluded that the Project is
    unlikely to adversely affect spotted owl habitat.
    As for the balance of equities and whether the preliminary
    injunction is in the public’s interest, the majority concludes
    that these factors favor EPIC because “EPIC seeks only the
    preparation of an EIS or an EA,” and that “[t]he public
    interest is served by requiring the Forest Service to comply
    with the law.” Maj. Op. at 15. But Ms. Carlson makes clear
    in her declaration that without these timber sales, the Service
    will be forced to close roads and recreation areas on a long-
    term basis. Certainly, the public has a strong interest in
    enjoying trips to Mendocino National Forest. The public also
    has an interest in protecting taxpayers’ money through sound
    management by the Forest Service. I do not believe the
    majority’s opinion adequately considers these countervailing
    concerns. See Weinberger v. Romero-Barcelo, 
    456 U.S. 305
    ,
    312 (1982) (“In exercising their sound discretion, courts of
    equity should pay particular regard for the public
    consequences in employing the extraordinary remedy of
    EPIC V. CARLSON                        23
    injunction.”); see also League of Wilderness Defs./Blue
    Mountains Biodiversity Project v. Connaughton, 
    752 F.3d 755
    , 765 (9th Cir. 2014) (“Both the economic and
    environmental interests are relevant factors, and both carry
    weight in this analysis.”).
    In sum, I believe that the district court did not abuse its
    discretion in denying EPIC’s request for a preliminary
    injunction, and that we must defer to the agency’s actions
    within its expertise. I thus respectfully dissent.