United States v. Keniel Thomas ( 2021 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued November 19, 2020               Decided June 11, 2021
    No. 19-3015
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    APPELLEE
    v.
    KENIEL AEON THOMAS, ALSO KNOWN AS DAVID MORGAN,
    APPELLANT
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:18-cr-00310-1)
    Rosanna M. Taormina, Assistant Federal Public Defender,
    argued the cause for appellant. With her on the briefs was A.J.
    Kramer, Federal Public Defender. Tony Axam Jr., Assistant
    Federal Public Defender, entered an appearance.
    Nicholas P. Coleman, Assistant U.S. Attorney, argued the
    cause for appellee. With him on the brief were Elizabeth
    Trosman and Kathryn L. Rakoczy, Assistant U.S. Attorneys.
    2
    Before: HENDERSON and GARLAND, * Circuit Judges, and
    GINSBURG, Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Senior Circuit Judge
    GINSBURG.
    Concurring opinion filed by Circuit Judge HENDERSON
    GINSBURG, Senior Circuit Judge: Keniel Thomas, a
    resident of Jamaica, pleaded guilty to one count of interstate
    communication with intent to extort, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 875
    (b), after botching a lottery scam. 1 In the plea agreement,
    Thomas waived most of his rights to appeal. He retained only
    the rights to claim he received ineffective assistance of counsel
    and to appeal any upward departure from the sentencing
    guidelines range calculated by the district court. At sentencing,
    the district court did depart upward and sentenced Thomas to
    nearly six years’ imprisonment.
    Thomas mounts several challenges to his sentence. First,
    he argues the Government plainly breached the plea agreement
    at sentencing. We disagree. Second, he claims his waiver of
    rights to appeal is unenforceable and then raises four issues
    within the scope of the waiver. We assume without deciding
    the waiver was ineffective and reject these challenges on their
    merits. Third, Thomas argues the district court abused its
    *
    Then-Judge Garland was a member of the panel at the time this case
    was submitted but did not participate in the final disposition of the
    case.
    1
    In a lottery scam, “scammers lead victims to believe they have won
    a drawing or lottery, but the cash or prizes will not be released
    without upfront payment of fees or taxes. Scammers frequently
    target the elderly.” U.S. Embassy in Jamaica, Lottery Scams,
    https://jm.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/victims-of-
    crime/scams (last visited May 14, 2021).
    3
    discretion by departing upward from the guidelines range. We
    find no abuse of discretion. Finally, Thomas claims his
    attorney made mistakes at sentencing and during the plea
    bargaining process that deprived him of his right to the
    effective assistance of counsel under the Sixth Amendment to
    the Constitution of the United States. We remand some of
    Thomas’s ineffective assistance claims to the district court for
    further fact-finding and deny the rest.
    I. Background
    We first discuss the plea agreement and the stipulated
    facts. After that, we summarize additional evidence the
    Government presented with its sentencing memorandum and
    the proceedings at the sentencing hearing.
    A. The plea agreement
    As part of his plea agreement, Thomas stipulated to a
    statement of offense that established the following facts.
    ***
    In June 2014, Thomas made a call to William Webster,
    whom Thomas knew to be an elderly former judge. Thomas
    identified himself as the head of the Mega Millions lottery and
    told the Judge he was the winner of an eight-figure prize. To
    collect it, Webster needed only to make an advance payment of
    $50,000 to cover taxes. If Thomas thought Judge Webster
    would be easily fooled due to his advanced age, then he was
    seriously mistaken. Perhaps unbeknownst to Thomas, he was
    trying to scam a man who once headed the Federal Bureau of
    Investigation. After hanging up with Thomas, Judge Webster
    phoned the Bureau.
    4
    The next day, Judge Webster called Thomas back, this
    time recording their conversation for the FBI. Thomas restated
    many of his falsehoods from the day before, except this time
    the fake prize amount quadrupled and the fake tax payment
    dropped to $20,000. Judge Webster humored Thomas, but did
    not agree to anything. Undeterred, Thomas made several more
    calls to Judge Webster over the following month.
    Eventually Thomas became frustrated and resorted to
    threats instead of false promises. On July 17, he called Judge
    Webster’s home phone and reached his wife, Lynda Webster.
    Thomas demanded the Websters pay him $6,000. If they did
    not pay him, then he would have both of them killed by a sniper
    and set fire to their home. To make his threats more plausible,
    Thomas recounted personal identifying information about the
    Judge, including his previous employment. He further told
    Mrs. Webster he had been surveilling her home. He correctly
    described the house and correctly stated no one had been home
    the previous evening.
    Thomas made more threats in additional conversations
    with Mrs. Webster over the following days. On July 21, in an
    especially shocking outburst, Thomas told her, “it is so easy
    killing you, you just a take a shot and put it in your sniper, aim,
    and the back of the head … all you see is blood and marrow
    flying out.” He urged the Websters to pay him $6,000 in order
    to avoid this fate.
    Having no success in securing the $6,000, Thomas
    apparently gave up on the Websters. Three years later, federal
    agents arrested him entering the United States at a New York
    airport.
    ***
    5
    In a deal with the Department of Justice, Thomas admitted
    to the facts above and pleaded guilty to one count of interstate
    communication with intent to extort, 
    18 U.S.C. § 875
    (b). In
    exchange, the Department agreed not to bring any additional
    charges.
    In the plea agreement, the parties estimated his offense
    level under the Sentencing Guidelines at 20, comprising a base
    offense level of 18, U.S.S.G. § 2B3.2; a two-level increase
    because his extortionate conduct included death threats,
    U.S.S.G. § 2B3.2(b)(1); a one-level increase because he tried
    to extort more than $20,000, U.S.S.G. § 2B3.2(b)(2); a two-
    level increase for conduct aimed a vulnerable victim, U.S.S.G.
    § 3A1.1; and a three-level decrease for acceptance of
    responsibility, U.S.S.G. § 3E1.1. Thomas had no prior
    criminal convictions, so this offense level resulted in an
    estimated guidelines range of 33 to 41 months in prison. See
    U.S.S.G. § 5A. In the agreement, Thomas waived his right to
    appeal “except to the extent” the court sentenced him “above
    the statutory maximum or the guidelines range determined by
    the Court” but he reserved the right to claim he received
    ineffective assistance of counsel.
    B. Sentencing
    After Thomas pleaded guilty, the Government submitted a
    sentencing memorandum accompanied by 38 exhibits, which
    gave a fuller picture of the FBI’s investigation than had the
    statement of offense. The evidence suggested a long-running
    and intricate conspiracy. According to the sentencing
    memorandum, it was not Thomas but his associate “Stone”
    who first contacted Judge Webster. In March 2014, Stone
    called Judge Webster, informed him he had won the lottery,
    and instructed him to send $1,000 to a California man
    6
    identified in the record as “P.W.” Judge Webster immediately
    contacted the FBI.
    At the Bureau’s request, Judge Webster stayed in phone
    and email contact with Stone, and his associates “Dudley,”
    “Reinhardt,” “Davis,” and “Winslow” over the next few
    months. The FBI’s investigation revealed P.W. was a victim
    who had been tricked into serving as a “money mule” for
    Thomas and his associates. The FBI identified dozens of other
    victims in the United States, many of them elderly. Agents
    were able to trace over $300,000 of payments flowing to
    Thomas and his associates, but estimated the total loss was
    much higher. For instance, one eighty-two year old victim
    claimed to have lost over $600,000, although the FBI was able
    to trace less than one-third of his loss.
    Thomas did not dispute any of these facts in his sentencing
    memorandum. At the sentencing hearing, however, Thomas’s
    attorney objected to a paragraph in the presentence
    investigation report (PSR) prepared by the Probation Office
    that mentioned there were victims besides the Websters. The
    district judge overruled the objection after an FBI agent
    testified to the findings of the investigation. The agent’s
    testimony corroborated the evidence in the Government’s
    sentencing memorandum (and thus the disputed paragraph of
    the PSR). The court accepted the unrebutted evidence
    presented in the sentencing exhibits and the agent’s testimony
    as its findings of fact.
    The district court went on to impose a sentence longer than
    the Government had requested. The court applied an offense-
    level enhancement not mentioned in the plea agreement
    because it found Thomas “demonstrated the ability to carry
    out” his threats. See U.S.S.G. § 2B3.2(b)(3)(B)(ii). This
    brought the sentencing guidelines range up to 46-57 months.
    7
    The court then applied two upward departures suggested in the
    Extortion Guideline: one for extortion that “involved organized
    criminal activity” and one for “a threat to a family member of
    the victim.” U.S.S.G. § 2B3.2 cmt. n.8. As a result, the court
    sentenced Thomas to 71 months in prison, 30 months more
    than the maximum estimated in the agreement.
    II. Analysis
    We begin our analysis with the alleged breach of the plea
    agreement. Second, we analyze the waiver of appellate rights
    in the plea agreement and the issues that it arguably bars.
    Third, we review the district court’s decision to depart from the
    guidelines range. In the final section, we address Thomas’s
    ineffective assistance of counsel claims.
    A. Breach of plea agreement
    In the plea agreement, the Government promised it would
    not “seek any offense-level calculation different” from the
    calculation in the agreement. ECF No. 20, at 4. On appeal,
    Thomas argues the Government breached the plea agreement
    by seeking a sentencing enhancement for a demonstrated
    ability to carry out an extortionate threat.
    Because Thomas did not object at sentencing, our review
    is for plain error. Puckett v. United States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    , 133-
    34 (2009). We may reverse only if any breach (1) was “clear
    or obvious, rather than subject to reasonable dispute,”
    (2) prejudiced the defendant, and (3) resulted in a miscarriage
    of justice. 
    Id. at 135
    . We find no breach here regardless of the
    standard of review.
    The Government did not mention the demonstrated-ability
    enhancement in its sentencing memorandum.          At the
    8
    sentencing hearing, the judge on her own initiative asked the
    prosecutor about it. The prosecutor, noting he was in an
    “unfortunate and somewhat difficult position,” stated it “was
    our interpretation and our understanding of the facts that we
    have before us that this offense did not involve the ability of
    the defendant to carry out this threat given what we knew at the
    time.” The judge pushed back, asking “in this case don’t we
    have the defendant talking to Lynda Webster and … trying to
    demonstrate with pretty concrete evidence his ability to carry
    out his threat?” But the prosecutor stood his ground: “Our
    position is that he was not able to otherwise demonstrate the
    ability to carry that out through those threats.” The judge asked
    whether the Government’s position was contrary to her reading
    of cases from the Third and Seventh Circuits, which held it is
    “irrelevant” whether the defendant “actually had the ability to
    carry it out.” The prosecutor said, no, “we’re basing it in large
    part on the facts … in our case.” The court asked whether
    actual ability was irrelevant “as a legal matter” – trying to
    understand whether the Government took that position
    “because he was in Jamaica, we didn’t think he had the ability
    to carry it out; you don’t think it applies.” The prosecutor said
    no, “as a legal matter, we are not saying that.” After taking a
    moment to confer with a colleague, he concluded: “We are not
    arguing that legally that it doesn’t apply. We are not asking
    that it apply in this case.”
    There was no breach here. The Government promised to
    argue for the stipulated guidelines range (which it did), but it
    never promised to convince the judge this range was correctly
    calculated. See Plea Agreement, ECF 20, at 5 (“[Thomas]
    acknowledges that the Court is not obligated to follow any
    recommendation of the Government at the time of
    sentencing”).
    9
    Thomas interprets the double negative in the prosecutor’s
    penultimate sentence, “We are not arguing that legally that it
    doesn’t apply,” as “effectively agree[ing]” the court should
    apply the demonstrated-ability enhancement, and argues this
    constitutes a breach. We read the transcript differently. The
    prosecutor resisted the court’s characterization of the
    Government’s position, namely, that the enhancement is
    appropriate only where the defendant had the power to carry
    out his threats, so Thomas’s being in Jamaica (and presumably
    unable to harm the Websters) was dispositive. Rather, the
    prosecutor seemed to agree with the court’s view of the law but
    maintain that the totality of the facts did not support the
    enhancement.
    This is how the Government reads the transcript as well.
    As it points out, nothing in the plea agreement required the
    prosecutor to argue for a bright-line rule that a defendant’s
    inability to make good on his threats is dispositive; to the
    contrary, he had an ethical duty to answer the court’s questions
    honestly.
    Even if we understood the double negative as a feeble
    admission the enhancement might apply, we would still hold
    the prosecution did not breach the agreement. The fact is that,
    as agreed, the Government did not at any point “seek” the
    enhancement. The district court raised it without any
    prompting – explicit or implicit – from the Government and
    applied it over the Government’s repeated objection.
    B. Waiver of rights to appeal
    In exchange for “concessions made by the Government”
    in the plea agreement, Thomas waived his right to “appeal the
    sentence in this case … and the manner in which the sentence
    was determined, except to the extent the Court sentence[d]
    10
    [him] above the statutory maximum or guidelines range
    determined by the court.” A waiver of the right to appeal is
    “generally enforceable,” so long as it is “knowing, intelligent,
    and voluntary.” United States v. Guillen, 
    561 F.3d 527
    , 528-
    29 (D.C. Cir. 2009) (analyzing a similar waiver). Thomas
    raises several issues that fall within the scope of the waiver. 2
    He attempts to bypass the waiver in two ways.
    First, Thomas argues that because the district court
    departed upward from the guidelines range he is free to
    challenge his sentence upon any ground whatsoever. This is
    belied by the text of the agreement, which barred an appeal
    “except to the extent” the court sentenced him above the
    guidelines range. See United States v. Hunt, 
    843 F.3d 1022
    ,
    1027 (D.C. Cir. 2016) (“Like statutory construction,
    interpretation of a plea agreement begins with plain language”
    (citations omitted)). The extent to which the court sentenced
    Thomas above the guidelines range is the portion of the
    sentence attributable to the upward departure. Cf. Cohen v. de
    la Cruz, 
    523 U.S. 213
    , 218 (1998) (interpreting “to the extent
    obtained by” fraud to mean “the share … that is obtained by
    fraud”). To challenge the underlying guidelines calculation or
    other aspects of the sentencing would be to go beyond the
    extent of the upward departure.
    Second, Thomas argues the district court’s explanation of
    the waiver of rights to appeal at his plea hearing effectively
    2
    Specifically, he asserts the district court abused its discretion and/or
    clearly erred by (1) finding an incorrect “amount demanded” under
    the Extortion Guideline, (2) applying the “vulnerable victim”
    enhancement under U.S.S.G. § 3A1.1(b)(1), (3) applying the
    demonstrated-ability enhancement, (4) describing the lottery scam as
    an “extortion scheme” rather than a scheme to defraud, and (5)
    failing to provide a reasonable basis for rejecting a downward
    variance based upon his status as a deportable alien.
    11
    altered the terms of the waiver to allow appeal on any issue in
    the event of an upward departure. This contention cannot be
    rejected as easily as the previous one.
    Before a district court may accept a guilty plea, Rule 11(b)
    of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure requires the judge
    to “inform the defendant of, and determine that the defendant
    understands,” certain important terms and consequences of the
    plea agreement. The purpose of the Rule, generally, is “to
    ensure that [the defendant] understands … his rights as a
    criminal defendant” before entering a guilty plea. United
    States v. Vonn, 
    535 U.S. 55
    , 62 (2002). A waiver of rights to
    appeal is a consequential term in a plea agreement, so the Rule
    specifically requires the judge to explain its terms to the
    defendant and to confirm the waiver is entered knowingly,
    intelligently, and voluntarily. Fed. R. Crim. P. 11(b)(1)(N); see
    also United States v. Lee, 
    888 F.3d 503
    , 506 (D.C. Cir. 2018).
    Due to the vital constitutional interests Rule 11 safeguards,
    we have insisted that district courts “scrupulously adhere” to
    its requirements. United States v. Brown, 
    892 F.3d 385
    , 395
    (D.C. Cir. 2018) (quoting United States v. Shemirani, 
    802 F.3d 1
    , 3 (D.C. Cir. 2015)). If “the district court mischaracterize[s]
    the meaning of the waiver in a fundamental way” at the plea
    hearing, then “the district court’s oral pronouncement controls,
    and the appeal is not barred.” Brown, 892 F.3d at 395 (quoting
    United States v. Godoy, 
    706 F.3d 493
    , 495-96 (D.C. Cir. 2013),
    cleaned up); see also, e.g., Hunt, 843 F.3d at 1028-29; United
    States v. Kaufman, 
    791 F.3d 86
    , 88 (D.C. Cir. 2016). A
    representative case is Brown, where the district court
    summarized a waiver provision nearly identical to the one here
    as follows: “[W]ith regard to certain circumstances, you may
    even have … the right to appeal the sentence … on the grounds
    of reasonableness.” 892 F.3d at 395. On appeal, we did not
    “pause to parse the precise legal meaning of ‘reasonableness.’”
    12
    Id. at 396. Instead, we refused to enforce the waiver based
    upon “the common meaning” of the district court’s
    pronouncement. Id.
    Scrupulous implementation of Rule 11 does not require “a
    litany or other ritual which can be carried out only by word-
    for-word adherence to a set ‘script.’” Fed. R. Crim. P. 11(h),
    Advisory Committee’s Notes to 1983 Amendment. To the
    contrary, a lifeless recitation of the plea agreement is
    disfavored; “a more meaningful explanation” in the judge’s
    own words is preferred. Id. (quoting United States v. Saft, 
    558 F.2d 1073
    , 1079 (2d Cir. 1977)). It is, admittedly, a delicate
    balance the district court must strike: Provide enough
    explanation to dispel any misunderstanding without simply
    reading the agreement aloud, but in doing so, take care not to
    create a new or different misconception that effectively amends
    the written agreement.
    During the Rule 11 colloquy in this case, the court
    explained the waiver as follows:
    THE COURT: Do you understand that by pleading guilty
    you are giving up all of your rights … to appeal your
    sentence, unless you are sentenced to a period of
    imprisonment longer than the statutory maximum or the
    court departs upward from the applicable recommended
    sentencing guideline range, which is all set out in your plea
    letter at page 7, paragraph 10? Do you understand that?
    THE DEFENDANT: Yes, Your Honor.
    The key difference between the written agreement and the
    court’s explanation is that the court paraphrased “except to the
    extent” as “unless.” Thomas says there is an “arguable
    13
    divergence” between the court’s explanation and the agreement
    as written, and so the court’s explanation should control.
    We agree the two arguably diverge insofar as “unless” is
    less precise and broader than “except to the extent.” The
    written terms of the agreement, as explained above, were
    specific. 3 The district court’s paraphrase, taken literally, tells
    the defendant he is not giving up all his rights to appeal if the
    district court departs upward, but does not specify which rights
    would be retained if that happened. The natural understanding,
    however, is that the right retained is the right mentioned – that
    is, the right to appeal the upward departure. As the
    Government put the point at oral argument, “There’s no reason
    why the decision to … go above the guidelines range should
    then make everything else appealable. That isn’t … a
    reasonable interpretation of the provision.”
    In light of these conflicting considerations, I think that
    whether the district court fundamentally mischaracterized the
    waiver provision is a close question. But see Henderson, J.,
    Concurring Op., post. We need not answer it, however, because
    Thomas’s challenges to the arguably waived issues lack merit.
    See United States v. Fry, 
    851 F.3d 1329
    , 1331-32 (D.C. Cir.
    2017) (“Because the waiver question does not go to our court’s
    jurisdiction, we can forgo deciding it if we reject [defendant’s]
    sentencing challenges on the merits”).
    3
    This is not to say the written waiver was beyond improvement. The
    written waiver in Brown, for example, was even more specific; it
    stated the defendant could appeal an above-guidelines sentence but
    could not “raise on appeal other issues regarding the sentencing.”
    892 F.3d at 395.
    14
    1. Stipulated guidelines enhancements
    Thomas faults the district court for applying two offense
    level enhancements recommended in the plea agreement, to
    wit, the vulnerable victim enhancement, U.S.S.G.
    § 3A1.1(b)(1), and the enhancement for extortion where the
    amount demanded exceeded $20,000, U.S.S.G. § 2B3.2(b)(2).
    The Government argues he waived his right to challenge this
    aspect of the guidelines calculation, quite apart from the
    explicit waiver of his right to appeal, by negotiating and
    accepting a plea deal that stipulated the enhancements apply.
    Therefore, the Government argues, we should not review this
    aspect of the guidelines calculation even for plain error.
    The Government is correct. While we review for plain
    error when a defendant has forfeited an issue through a failure
    to object, we will not review at all when a defendant acts
    intentionally to waive an issue. United States v. Laslie, 
    716 F.3d 612
    , 614 (D.C. Cir. 2013) (citing United States v. Olano,
    
    507 U.S. 725
    , 733 (1993) for the distinction between forfeiture
    and waiver). For instance, when a defendant makes a “tactical
    decision” to request a certain jury instruction, he is barred from
    complaining about the instruction on appeal; any error was
    “invited” by the defendant. United States v. Harrison, 
    103 F.3d 986
    , 992 (D.C. Cir. 1997); Brown, 892 F.3d at 392-93; cf.
    United States v. Long, ___ F.3d ___, No. 20-3064, 
    2021 WL 1972245
    , at *6-7 (D.C. Cir. May 18, 2021) (no waiver where
    counsel made a “mistake” rather than employing a “strategy or
    tactic”).      This rule discourages sandbagging, that is,
    purposefully inducing the district court to commit an error that
    can form the basis for an appeal in the event of an unfavorable
    result at trial or sentencing. Harrison, 
    103 F.3d at 992
    .
    Negotiating a plea agreement, like requesting a jury
    instruction, requires counsel to think strategically. See Guillen,
    15
    
    561 F.3d at 530
    . In both situations counsel must evaluate the
    various options and advise the defendant of their respective
    risks and benefits. And in both situations there is a potential
    for sandbagging. Therefore, we have held a defendant waives
    his right to contest a guidelines adjustment to which he has
    stipulated in his plea agreement: “This court does not allow
    parties to reopen issues waived by stipulation at trial.” Laslie,
    716 F.3d at 615.
    We have no doubt that Thomas intentionally waived the
    issues he now seeks to raise; there was no mere forfeiture or
    mistake. Thomas’s plea agreement provided for an offense
    level increase because the “amount demanded” exceeded
    $20,000, U.S.S.G. § 2B3.2(b)(2), and another increase because
    “a victim of the offense was a vulnerable victim,” U.S.S.G.
    § 3A1.1(b)(1). At the Rule 11 hearing, the judge asked Thomas
    whether he understood the estimate in the plea agreement that
    his offense level would be increased “by one offense level
    because you demanded over $20,000[] and by two offense
    levels because the two victims were vulnerable victims.”
    Thomas confirmed that he understood. When the Probation
    Office produced the PSR, it confirmed the parties’ guidelines
    calculation. In his sentencing memorandum Thomas adverted
    to this portion of the PSR but did not object to it. Finally, when
    at the sentencing hearing the court accepted the
    recommendation to apply these two enhancements, Thomas,
    through counsel, again stated he did not object.
    Despite all this, Thomas argues there was no waiver
    because the district court stated it had an “independent
    obligation” to calculate the guidelines range rather than relying
    solely upon the calculation estimated by the parties. Therefore,
    he says, his stipulation did not induce the district court’s
    decision and we should review for plain error after all. The
    point is not well taken; the district court has an “independent
    16
    obligation” to calculate the guidelines range in every case.
    Freeman v. United States, 
    564 U.S. 522
    , 529 (2011). If that
    undercut the defendant’s waiver here, it would do so
    everywhere. Therefore, we hold Thomas waived his challenge
    to the two disputed enhancements.
    2. Demonstrated ability
    The Extortion by … Threat of Injury Guideline provides
    for an enhancement of three offense levels if “the offense
    involved preparation to carry out” or the defendant “otherwise
    demonstrated the ability to carry out” a threat of death, serious
    injury, or kidnapping. U.S.S.G. § 2B3.2(b)(3)(B). Application
    Note 6 explains the enhancement would be appropriate if, for
    example, “an extortionate demand containing … a threat to
    kidnap a person [were] accompanied by information showing
    study of that person’s routine.” The district court applied this
    enhancement over the objection of both Thomas and the
    Government.
    The district court did not abuse its discretion by applying
    the enhancement on these facts, which closely track the
    example from Note 6. Indeed, the Seventh Circuit upheld
    application of the enhancement to similar facts in United States
    v. Hacha, 
    727 F.3d 815
     (2013). There the extortionist, who
    threatened to harm the victim’s parents, demonstrated his
    ability to carry out the threat by telling the victim (1) his
    parents’ names, (2) their address in Mexico City, and (3) the
    color of their house. 
    Id. at 817
    . Here, Thomas showed the
    Websters he knew their names, home address, and house color,
    and went farther still. To corroborate his claim the house was
    under surveillance, he correctly told Mrs. Webster she was not
    home the night before.
    17
    Thomas argues he did not demonstrate an ability to carry
    out his threats because he did not actually have the ability to
    carry them out; he was, after all, in Jamaica at the time. But
    the defendant being out of the country is not dispositive
    because having and demonstrating an ability are not the same
    thing. See United State v. White, 654 F. App’x 956, 969-70
    (11th Cir. 2016) (holding the defendant, who was in Mexico at
    the time, demonstrated the ability to carry out threats against
    Florida officials when he revealed he knew their names,
    addresses, and grandchildren’s names).
    3. “Extortion scheme” or “scheme to defraud”
    Thomas claims the court erred by referring several times
    at sentencing to an “extortion scheme.” According to Thomas,
    the scheme is more accurately characterized as a “scheme to
    defraud” because most calls to victims did not include
    extortionate threats. Thomas never objected to the court’s
    characterization at sentencing, so our review is for plain error.
    Even granting that the court’s use of the phrase was inaccurate,
    the challenge fails because Thomas does not explain how it
    affected his substantial rights.
    4. Smith variance
    As a deportable alien, Thomas is not eligible for “the
    benefits of 
    18 U.S.C. § 3624
    (c), which directs the Bureau of
    Prisons, to the extent practicable, to assure that prisoners spend
    part of … their sentences … under conditions — possibly
    including home confinement — that will ‘afford the prisoner a
    reasonable opportunity to adjust to and prepare for his re-entry
    into the community.’” United States v. Smith, 
    27 F.3d 649
    , 651
    (D.C. Cir. 1994). In his PSR, the Probation Office raised the
    possibility of a downward departure to compensate for the
    increased severity of Thomas’s punishment due to his
    18
    ineligibility for this and other Bureau of Prisons programs (a
    Smith departure). See 
    id. at 655
    . At the sentencing hearing,
    defense counsel declined to argue in support of this departure
    because he was bound by the plea agreement not to argue for
    any departures, but he said he intended to argue later for a
    downward variance on those same grounds (a Smith variance).
    At the appropriate time, however, defense counsel did not raise
    Smith or otherwise make the case for a variance. Later in the
    hearing, the district judge independently considered granting a
    variance or departure under Smith. She concluded neither was
    warranted: “[G]iven the fact that you committed your current
    offense while you were in Jamaica, it appears to me that being
    abroad doesn’t impede your criminal conduct here; I’d only
    delay bringing you to justice here.”
    Thomas argues the district court did not articulate a
    reasoned basis for declining to impose a departure or a variance
    under Smith. See Rita v. United States, 
    551 U.S. 338
    , 356
    (2007) (“The sentencing judge should set forth enough to
    satisfy the appellate court that he has considered the parties'
    arguments and has a reasoned basis for exercising his own legal
    decisionmaking authority”). Because Thomas did not object to
    the district court’s statement of reasons at sentencing, our
    review would be for plain error if we were to reach this
    argument. United States v. Locke, 
    664 F.3d 353
    , 357 (D.C. Cir.
    2011). For reasons stated later in this opinion, however, we
    hold Thomas’s attorney was ineffective as a matter of law in
    failing to argue for and present evidence supporting a Smith
    variance and in failing to object to the district court’s stated
    reason for denying one. This ineffective assistance of counsel
    claim will be remanded to the district court so it can determine
    whether counsel’s errors were prejudicial. On remand, the
    district court will need to consider arguments for the variance
    and will have to provide a reasoned basis for accepting or
    rejecting them. Consequently, we need not decide whether the
    19
    district court plainly erred. Cf. United States v. Soto, 
    132 F.3d 56
    , 59 (D.C. Cir. 1997) (“In view of our conclusion that
    counsel was ineffective, we need not reach [the defendant’s]
    alternative argument that the district court committed plain
    error”).
    C. Upward departures
    In Application Note 8 to the Extortion Guideline, the
    Sentencing Commission advises that “[i]f the offense involved
    organized criminal activity, or a threat to a family member of
    the victim, an upward departure may be warranted.” U.S.S.G.
    § 2B3.2 cmt. n.8. The district court found Thomas’s offense
    involved both organized criminal activity and a threat to a
    family member and departed upward upon both grounds.
    Thomas attacks the rationales for both departures. He first
    argues the district court erred by treating Application Note 8 as
    a “directive” rather than a suggestion. As the transcript shows,
    however, the district court well understood the departures to be
    permissive: “So I am going to address the two departures …
    that are expressly recommended for consideration where the
    facts warrant.”
    The district court was clearly correct the conduct involved
    threats to a family member. Thomas told Mrs. Webster several
    times he would murder her husband if he was not paid. These
    threats were recorded and Thomas admits to making them.
    Thomas insists “a threat to a family member of the victim”
    means a threat communicated to that family member. Under
    this interpretation, the departure would be justified only in rare
    circumstances, if ever, because the person with whom the
    extortionist speaks will usually be “the victim” of the extortion,
    not a relative of the victim. Thomas’s reading of the Guideline
    20
    is strained and unnatural: If a victim said an extortionist called
    and threatened to kill his toddler, one would not understand the
    victim to have put the child on the phone. The better
    interpretation is that the departure is permitted where the
    defendant threatens the victim with harm to a member of the
    victim’s family.
    Regarding the organized crime departure, Thomas asks us
    to view the phone calls to Mrs. Webster in isolation. Because
    none of Thomas’s associates joined him on the calls, he reasons
    the offense did not involve organized crime. The district court
    was not required to take such a narrow view. The extortionate
    threats were made as the culmination of a plot that involved
    Thomas and other members of his criminal organization.
    Thomas’s associates also contacted the Websters, and Thomas
    directed the Websters to send money to his mules as part of a
    complex, orchestrated scheme. Even looking only to the
    recording of the July 21 phone call, there is evidence of
    organized crime. Thomas spoke in the first-person plural (e.g.,
    “We know where your home is. We have your address. We
    have everything about you. So easy that we go set your home
    ablaze.”) and directed Mrs. Webster to send money to his
    “good friend” in New York.
    Finally, Thomas attacks the extent of the organized-crime
    departure. He argues the district court abused its discretion by
    adding one offense level to account for the scope of the
    organization’s crimes because, in doing so, the court
    analogized to the loss table in the Robbery Guideline, U.S.S.G.
    § 2B3.1(b)(7). He says the court should have looked instead to
    the Fraud Guideline, U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1. But the loss table in
    the Fraud Guideline escalates much more quickly: it prescribes
    an increase of eight levels if the loss exceeded $95,000 and an
    increase of 12 levels if the loss exceeded $250,000. Therefore,
    21
    Thomas benefitted from the analogy and has neither standing
    nor reason to complain about it.
    D. Ineffective assistance
    Thomas claims his defense attorney made several errors
    during plea negotiations and at sentencing that deprived him of
    his Sixth Amendment right to counsel. To prevail on these
    claims, Thomas must show (1) his attorney made errors so
    serious he was not functioning as “counsel,” and (2) the errors
    were prejudicial. United States v. Rashad, 
    331 F.3d 908
    , 909
    (D.C. Cir. 2003). When a defendant asserts ineffective
    assistance claims for the first time on direct appeal, we
    “remand the claim for an evidentiary hearing unless the trial
    record alone conclusively shows that the defendant either is or
    is not entitled to relief.” 
    Id. at 909-10
     (cleaned up).
    The Government agrees that several of the ineffective
    assistance claims should be remanded to the district court for
    fact-finding. 4 It argues, however, that four of the claims should
    be dismissed in this appeal, viz., that defense counsel: (1) failed
    to argue for or present facts supporting a Smith variance, and
    failed to object to the district court’s reason for rejecting one; 5
    (2) “affirmatively agreed” to “incorrect” offense-level
    enhancements; (3) failed to argue persuasively against the
    “demonstrated ability” enhancement; (4) did not object to the
    4
    The Government does not object to remanding the ineffective
    assistance claims based upon defense counsel’s failure: (1) to present
    “documentation” supporting a Smith variance, (2) raise mitigating
    facts contained in the Government’s sentencing exhibits, (3) review
    the exhibits with Thomas, and (4) submit character letters Thomas’s
    family and friends had written. We remand these claims to the
    district court for further proceedings.
    5
    The Government agrees this claim must be remanded in part. See
    supra, n.4. As discussed below, we remand it in full.
    22
    Government’s breach of the plea agreement; and (5) presented
    no argument against the “organized criminal activity” and
    “threat to family member” departures. We will address these
    individually.
    1. Smith variance
    The record conclusively shows Thomas’s counsel made
    unprofessional errors in failing to seek a downward variance
    due to Thomas’s status as a deportable alien. Even before the
    Supreme Court’s decision in United States v. Booker allowed
    judges to vary from the Sentencing Guidelines, 
    543 U.S. 220
    (2005), this Circuit recognized “a downward departure may be
    appropriate where the defendant’s status as a deportable alien
    is likely to cause a fortuitous increase in the severity of his
    sentence.” Smith, 
    27 F.3d at 655
    . In Thomas’s PSR, the
    Probation Office noted his “status as a deportable alien may
    warrant a downward departure.”
    Defense counsel did not zealously or diligently pursue a
    Smith variance. 6 In Thomas’s sentencing memorandum,
    counsel did not even echo the Probation Office’s call for a
    sentencing reduction or otherwise bring up Smith. Defense
    counsel later submitted a supplemental sentencing
    memorandum requesting a downward variance based upon
    Thomas’s susceptibility to “physical beating” in jail, which
    Thomas attributed to his nationality. The supplemental
    memorandum again failed to mention Smith or the Probation
    Office’s suggestion. Then, at sentencing, the court asked the
    6
    The plea agreement prohibited defense counsel from seeking a
    downward departure, so counsel would have needed to request a
    Smith variance rather than a Smith departure. This difference is
    immaterial here because, as defense counsel recognized, the
    considerations animating Smith apply equally to a variance and a
    departure.
    23
    parties to comment on the possibility of a Smith departure.
    Defense counsel, being unable to seek a downward departure,
    could not opine but stated he would raise Smith again when the
    court considered variances. When the time came, however,
    defense counsel did not raise Smith, choosing instead to rest on
    the arguments in his original sentencing memorandum. 7
    The court returned to the issue on its own later in the
    hearing, stating:
    I have also considered whether or not there should be a
    downward variance or departure due to your deportation
    after this sentence and the fact that there might be an
    increase in the severity of your sentence because of your
    inability to serve the last part of your sentence in a
    community-based confinement or in some kind of reentry
    program. But given the fact that you committed your
    current offense while you were in Jamaica, it appears to
    me that being abroad doesn't impede your criminal
    conduct here; I'd only delay bringing you to justice here.
    Defense counsel did not object to this explanation.
    It is clear from the record that defense counsel acted
    unprofessionally in failing to seek a Smith variance after the
    issue was flagged in the PSR. Cf. Soto, 
    132 F.3d at 58-59
    (holding counsel was clearly ineffective where he failed to
    raise a “potentially helpful” provision of the Guidelines). The
    7
    Specifically, when the time came to discuss variances, the judge
    listed the five variances defense counsel requested in the sentencing
    memorandum (which did not include a variance under Smith), and
    asked him “Is that basically it?” Counsel responded, “Yes, Your
    Honor, that is effectively it.” The judge asked whether counsel had
    anything to add to his variance arguments, but counsel stated: “There
    is nothing more to amplify.”
    24
    record shows this was not a strategic choice; counsel stated his
    intent to raise the issue, but then failed to do so. This was an
    error serious enough, if it affected the outcome, to deprive
    Thomas of his constitutional right to counsel.
    What is less clear is whether Thomas suffered any
    prejudice. Despite counsel’s failure to request the variance, the
    district court considered whether to grant it. The district court
    may or may not have been persuaded had counsel offered a
    cogent argument. We remand this claim to the district court to
    allow Thomas to present arguments and evidence supporting a
    Smith variance.
    2. Stipulated guidelines enhancements
    In his plea agreement, Thomas stipulated to two
    enhancements of his offense level that he now argues were
    inappropriate: (1) a one-level increase because “the amount
    demanded … exceeded $20,000,” U.S.S.G. § 2B3.2(b)(2), and
    (2) a two-level increase because Thomas “knew or should have
    known that a victim of the offense was a vulnerable victim,”
    U.S.S.G. § 3A1.1(b)(1).
    To determine whether these enhancements apply, a court
    may consider only the “relevant conduct” as defined in the
    Guidelines, which includes acts and omissions “that occurred
    during the commission of the offense of conviction, in
    preparation for that offense, or in the course of attempting to
    avoid detection or responsibility for that offense.” U.S.S.G.
    § 1B1.3(a). Whether the two enhancements were appropriate
    would depend in large part upon whether the relevant conduct
    included the calls to Mrs. Webster only or included also the
    calls to Judge Webster: Thomas demanded $50,000 during his
    attempt to defraud Judge Webster, but demanded only $6,000
    from Mrs. Webster; Judge Webster was arguably a vulnerable
    25
    victim because he was over 90 years old at the time of the
    offense, but there is no suggestion Mrs. Webster was unusually
    vulnerable. The Government asserted in the district court that
    the relevant conduct included the calls to both Websters, but it
    does not defend that position on appeal; nor does it otherwise
    argue the enhancements were correctly applied.
    Even if the enhancements were erroneous, however,
    Thomas’s objections fail because he cannot make a plausible
    showing of prejudice. Thomas principally argues that, if his
    counsel had informed him that the relevant conduct did not
    support some of the enhancements recommended in the
    agreement, then he would have negotiated a more lenient
    agreement. To prevail on this claim, Thomas would have to
    “show a reasonable probability that the end result of the
    criminal process would have been more favorable by reason of
    a plea to a lesser charge or a sentence of less prison time.”
    Brock-Miller v. United States, 
    887 F.3d 298
    , 312 (7th Cir.
    2018) (quoting Missouri v. Frye, 
    566 U.S. 134
    , 147 (2012))
    (applying this standard of prejudice to a claim that but-for
    counsel’s errors, the defendant would have “negotiated a more
    favorable plea agreement”).
    Thomas cannot make that showing. Given the uncharged
    conduct in the stipulated facts and the extra-plea evidence, it is
    completely unreasonable to believe the Government would
    have offered Thomas a more lenient deal if counsel had
    objected to the enhancements.          Even if he convinced
    prosecutors they had erred, they surely would have added
    counts sufficient to maintain at least the same recommended
    guidelines range. Indeed, the prosecution stressed to the
    district court that the sentence should reflect the “harm the
    defendant inflicted on numerous vulnerable victims,” including
    losses of “at least $300,000” and “likely much higher.” ECF
    No. 28 at 10, 13.
    26
    Alternatively, Thomas argues “it is not unlikely that he
    would have chosen either to enter an open plea or to proceed to
    trial, but for counsel’s errors.” For the open plea claim, he must
    show he would have obtained a more favorable sentence but
    for counsel’s errors. See Garcia v. United States, 
    679 F.3d 1013
    , 1015 (8th Cir. 2012); United States v. Booth, 
    432 F.3d 542
    , 546-47 (3d Cir. 2005). The claim he would have
    proceeded to trial is governed by the standard announced in Lee
    v. United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 1958
    , 1965 (2017) (“[W]hen a
    defendant claims that his counsel’s deficient performance
    deprived him of a trial by causing him to accept a plea, the
    defendant can show prejudice by demonstrating a reasonable
    probability that, but for counsel’s errors, he would not have
    pleaded guilty and would have insisted on going to trial.”
    (cleaned up)).
    Thomas cannot satisfy either standard. Again, the
    Government had evidence of uncharged conduct that would
    have supported numerous fraud counts on top of the lone
    extortion count in the information. It is highly improbable that
    Thomas would choose to proceed without a plea deal simply
    because defense counsel pointed out some logical
    inconsistencies in the Government’s offer.
    Because Thomas cannot show prejudice on these claims,
    we shall not remand them to the district court.
    3. Demonstrated ability
    Thomas’s next ineffective assistance claim is that defense
    counsel “failed to effectively argue” that the court should not
    apply the demonstrated-ability enhancement of U.S.S.G.
    § 2B3.2(b)(3)(B)(ii). This claim must fail because the district
    court was bound to apply the enhancement for reasons already
    27
    stated. Cf. United States v. Winstead, 
    890 F.3d 1082
    , 1090
    (D.C. Cir. 2018) (examining whether the argument counsel
    failed to raise was a “winning argument” in order to determine
    whether raising it would have changed the result).
    4. Breach of plea agreement
    Thomas claims defense counsel’s performance was
    constitutionally deficient because he failed to object to the
    Government’s breach of the plea agreement. As already
    discussed, however, the Government did not breach the plea
    agreement. We reject this claim because “failure to raise a
    meritless objection is not deficient performance.” United
    States v. Islam, 
    932 F.3d 957
    , 964 (D.C. Cir. 2019).
    5. Upward departures
    Finally, Thomas claims defense counsel “presented no
    substantive argument against” the two upward departures. This
    is true. Nevertheless, as we explained, the departures were
    justified. There is no reason to believe an argument against
    them could have affected the outcome. We shall not remand
    this claim.
    28
    III. Conclusion
    We reject all of Thomas’s substantive challenges to his
    sentence. We remand the case to the district court so it may
    consider his claims that he received ineffective assistance of
    counsel due to counsel’s failure to (1) argue for or present facts
    supporting a Smith variance, or object to the district court’s
    reasons for rejecting one, (2) raise mitigating facts contained in
    the Government’s sentencing exhibits, (3) review the
    sentencing exhibits with Thomas, and (4) submit character
    letters Thomas’s family and friends had written.
    So ordered.
    KAREN LECRAFT HENDERSON, Circuit Judge, concurring:
    I write separately to record my view that the district court
    “scrupulously adhere[d] to the obligations of Rule 11,” United
    States v. Shemirani, 
    802 F.3d 1
    , 3 (D.C. Cir. 2015), including
    the requirement to “inform the defendant of, and determine that
    the defendant understands, . . . the terms of any plea-agreement
    provision waiving the right to appeal or to collaterally attack
    the sentence,” Fed. R. Crim. P. 11(b)(1)(N). Accordingly,
    although I join the rest of my colleague’s opinion for the Court,
    I depart from his conclusion that “whether the district court
    fundamentally mischaracterized the waiver provision is a close
    call.” Op. at 13.
    An appeal waiver is generally enforceable. See United
    States v. Guillen, 
    561 F.3d 527
    , 529 (D.C. Cir. 2009). But if a
    judge mischaracterizes the waiver “in a fundamental way”—at
    least in a way that benefits the defendant—“‘the district court’s
    oral pronouncement controls.’” United States v. Godoy, 
    706 F.3d 493
    , 495–96 (D.C. Cir. 2013) (quoting United States v.
    Buchanan, 
    59 F.3d 914
    , 918 (9th Cir. 1995)). This doctrine
    naturally follows from the premise that criminal defendants
    “need to be able to trust the oral pronouncements of district
    court judges.” Buchanan, 
    59 F.3d at 918
    . If applicable only to
    a genuine mischaracterization, the doctrine fulfills a primary
    purpose of Rule 11—namely, ensuring that the defendant’s
    waiver is knowing and voluntary. See Shemirani, 802 F.3d at
    2 (citing United States v. Vonn, 
    535 U.S. 55
    , 62 (2002)). An
    appellate court, however, should not use a magnifying glass to
    scrutinize a minor change in phraseology that nonetheless jibes
    with the written document, whether or not it benefits the
    defendant.
    Rule 11, after all, “does not say that compliance can be
    achieved only by reading the specified items in haec verba.”
    United States v. Saft, 
    558 F.2d 1073
    , 1079 (2d Cir. 1977)
    (Friendly, J.). “To the contrary, a lifeless recitation of the plea
    agreement is disfavored.” Op. at 12. In an ideal plea colloquy,
    2
    the judge explains, rather than recites, the waiver provision. As
    my colleague notes, this requires striking a “delicate balance.”
    
    Id.
     The judge should “[p]rovide enough explanation to dispel
    any misunderstanding without simply reading the agreement
    aloud, but in doing so, take care not to create a new or different
    misconception that effectively amends the written agreement.”
    
    Id.
    The district judge struck that balance appropriately here.
    Under the plea agreement, Thomas waived his right to appeal
    his sentence “except to the extent the Court sentence[d] [him]
    above the statutory maximum or guidelines range determined
    by the Court.” Summarizing this language during the plea
    colloquy, the district judge told Thomas that he was waiving
    his right to appeal “unless you are sentenced to a period of
    imprisonment longer than the statutory maximum or the Court
    departs upward from the applicable recommended sentencing
    guideline range[,] which is all set out in your plea letter at page
    7, paragraph 10.”
    Granted, “unless” and “except to the extent” do not have
    identical meanings. Unless denotes an exception; except to the
    extent also denotes an exception but introduces detail about the
    scope of the exception. In other words, unless is “less precise
    and broader than” except to the extent.               Op. at 13.
    Notwithstanding the district court’s summary informed
    Thomas that he would regain certain appeal rights should he
    receive an above-Guidelines sentence, it failed to identify
    which appeal rights would be restored. Certainly the court
    could have—and perhaps should have—explained that an
    above-Guidelines sentence would not vitiate the appeal waiver
    in toto. But, in my view, its failure to do so falls far short of a
    mischaracterization,      let      alone      a      fundamental
    mischaracterization.
    3
    Faulty-colloquy cases are repeat offenders in our Court so
    we have a good basis to make comparisons. We have issued at
    least five published opinions holding that the district court’s
    oral pronouncement contradicted the terms of a written appeal
    waiver. See, e.g., Godoy, 706 F.3d at 495; United States v.
    Fareri, 
    712 F.3d 593
    , 594 (D.C. Cir. 2013); United States v.
    Kaufman, 
    791 F.3d 86
    , 88 (D.C. Cir. 2015); United States v.
    Hunt, 
    843 F.3d 1022
    , 1028 (D.C. Cir. 2016); United States v.
    Brown, 
    892 F.3d 385
    , 395–96 (D.C. Cir. 2018) (per curiam).
    All but one—Fareri is the exception—address waiver terms
    that are similar or identical to the language in Thomas’s plea
    agreement.
    In Godoy, the judge told the defendant that he could appeal
    his sentence if “the Court has done something illegal, such as
    imposing a period of imprisonment longer than the statutory
    maximum.” 706 F.3d at 495 (emphasis omitted). Although the
    government argued that a reasonable person would interpret
    “such as” to mean “limited to,” we rejected the argument. See
    id. In Kaufman, the judge told the defendant that he could
    appeal “if [he] believe[d] the sentence is illegal” or if he did
    not “like” the sentence. 791 F.3d at 88 (alterations in original).
    Hunt was similar. 843 F.3d at 1025. And in Brown, the judge
    told the defendant that he could appeal “on the grounds of
    reasonableness.” 892 F.3d at 395. But see id. at 410
    (Kavanaugh, J., dissenting in part) (district judge noted appeal
    would apply only “with regard to certain circumstances”).
    Each of these statements, “[t]aken for [their] plain meaning—
    which is how criminal defendants should be entitled to take the
    statements of district court judges,” Godoy, 706 F.3d at 495—
    arguably led the defendant to think that he had a broader right
    to appeal than the plea agreement promised.
    Nothing of that sort happened here. Although the district
    court’s pronouncement was less detailed than the written
    4
    agreement, it did not mischaracterize that agreement.
    Moreover, the district judge’s words had other virtues.
    “Unless” is a crisp and simple word. Its use made plain what
    might be obscured by the more complex “except to the extent”
    formulation: the precise condition that would resurrect
    Thomas’s appeal rights.
    Moreover, were we inclined to fault the district court for
    omitting detail, that would not automatically merit reversal. If
    a judge’s complete failure to discuss the appeal waiver does not
    necessarily constitute reversible error, see United States v. Lee,
    
    888 F.3d 503
    , 506 (D.C. Cir. 2018), neither does a single
    change in phraseology. What matters is whether Thomas
    understood what he was giving up. I agree that “[t]he natural
    understanding” of the district court’s pronouncement “is that
    the right retained is the right mentioned—that is, the right to
    appeal the upward departure.” Op. at 13. A “natural
    understanding” is the best evidence of what Thomas “might
    reasonably have understood the court to mean,” Hunt, 843 F.3d
    at 1028, even if an alternative meaning—no matter how
    implausible—might literally be consistent with the court’s
    words.
    Labeling the district judge’s words a “close call” may also
    have an unintended effect on judges who, notwithstanding our
    admonition to the contrary, may decide that the safest course is
    to recite appeal waivers verbatim. This, too, would hurt
    criminal defendants, most of whom are not lawyers and may
    struggle to comprehend “the dark emptiness of legal jargon.”
    Fisher v. United States, 
    328 U.S. 463
    , 487 (1946) (Frankfurter,
    J., dissenting). But a judge who simply reads the text of the
    appeal waiver is unlikely to be reversed, Saft, 
    558 F.2d. at
    1079—even though Rule 11’s purpose would be frustrated—
    thus a “lifeless recitation” is what we may come to expect.