Natural Resources Defense Council v. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission ( 2018 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued October 10, 2017           Decided January 19, 2018
    No. 16-1298
    NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL AND POWDER RIVER
    BASIN RESOURCE COUNCIL,
    PETITIONERS
    v.
    U.S. N UCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION AND UNITED
    STATES OF AMERICA,
    RESPONDENTS
    STRATA ENERGY , INC.,
    INTERVENOR
    On Petition for Review of an Order of the
    United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission
    Shannon Anderson argued the cause for petitioners. On
    the brief were Howard M. Crystal and Geoffrey H. Fettus.
    Eric V. Michel, Attorney, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
    Commission, argued the cause for federal respondents. With
    him on the brief were John C. Cruden, Assistant Attorney
    General at the time the brief was filed, U.S. Department of
    Justice, Lane N. McFadden, Attorney, and Andrew P.
    Averbach, Solicitor, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
    2
    Christopher S. Pugsley argued the cause for intervenor-
    respondent. With him on the brief was Anthony J. Thompson.
    David A. Repka, Tyson R. Smith, Ellen C. Ginsberg, and
    Jonathan M. Rund were on the brief for amicus curiae Nuclear
    Energy Institute, Inc. in support of respondents.
    Before: KAVANAUGH , Circuit Judge, and WILLIAMS and
    GINSBURG, Senior Circuit Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Senior Circuit Judge
    GINSBURG.
    GINSBURG, Senior Circuit Judge: The Nuclear Regulatory
    Commission issued a license to Strata Energy, Inc. to mine
    uranium in Crook County, Wyoming. The Natural Resources
    Defense Council, Inc., and the Powder River Basin Resource
    Council (collectively, the Councils) intervened in the licensing
    proceeding and now petition this court for review, alleging both
    procedural and substantive defects in the licensing process. For
    the reasons that follow, we deny their petition.
    I.      Background
    We begin with a brief explanation of the mining process,
    insofar as relevant to this litigation, before describing the facts
    and procedural background of this case.
    A. ISL Mining
    In situ leach uranium mining (ISL mining) involves the
    extraction of uranium from permeable uranium-bearing
    sandstone. The extraction begins with the drilling of an
    injection well into the sandstone formation, through which is
    pumped the “lixiviant,” a liquid that separates the uranium
    3
    from the permeable sandstone. The uranium-permeated
    lixiviant is pumped out through a recovery well and processed
    to extract the uranium. A uranium mining project may
    comprise hundreds or even thousands of such wells, grouped
    together in a “wellfield.”
    Although the layer of sandstone from which the uranium
    is extracted is meant to be hydrologically isolated — that is,
    bounded by layers of impermeable rock — “excursions” of the
    lixiviant may occur. In order to reduce the risk of excursions,
    ISL mining projects use “monitoring wells,” which miners drill
    both around the perimeter of a wellfield and into overlying and
    underlying aquifers in order to monitor any changes in the
    chemical composition of the water.
    B. Background
    Strata sought a license from the Commission to mine
    uranium at what it calls the Ross Project in Crook County,
    Wyoming. 
    76 Fed. Reg. 41,308
    , 41,309 (2011). The Ross
    Project lies in an area known as the Lance District, which spans
    parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming.
    The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), 
    42 U.S.C. §§ 4321
     et seq., and the Atomic Energy Act (AEA), 
    42 U.S.C. § 2011
     et seq., along with the Commission’s regulations
    implementing them, governed the licensing process. That
    process begins when a mining company files an “application
    for a license to possess and use source material for uranium
    milling.” 
    10 C.F.R. § 40.31
    (f). The application must include,
    among other things, a discussion of “the impact of the proposed
    action on the environment;” “[a]ny adverse environmental
    effects which cannot be avoided should the proposal be
    implemented;” and “[a]lternatives to the proposed action.” 
    Id.
    § 51.45(b)(1)-(3).
    4
    1. The AEA
    Under the AEA, 
    42 U.S.C. § 2011
     et seq., anyone “whose
    interest may be affected by the [licensing] proceeding” has a
    right to intervene and be heard. 
    Id.
     § 2239(a)(1)(A). To get a
    hearing, an intervenor must specify at least one “contention”
    “[p]rovid[ing] a specific statement of the issue of law or fact to
    be raised or controverted … directed at demonstrating that one
    or more of the acceptance criteria [for a license] have not been,
    or will not be met.” 
    10 C.F.R. § 2.309
    (f).
    The Councils, which intervened on behalf of a member
    living in Wyoming, sought and were granted a hearing. See In
    re Strata Energy, Inc. (Ross In Situ Recovery Uranium Project)
    (Strata I), 
    75 N.R.C. 164
     (2012). Initially, the Commission
    admitted the Councils’ Contentions Nos. 1, 2, 3, and 4/5A, with
    Contention No. 1 being of limited relevance to this appeal.
    Contention No. 2 relates to the Commission requirement that,
    upon the completion of mining operations, the miner restore a
    mined aquifer so the groundwater concentration of the
    previously mined hazardous element or mineral does not
    exceed a specified limit. 10 C.F.R. Part 40, App. A. Of the
    three options for restoration, the one relevant here is restoration
    to an “alternate concentration limit [ACL] established by the
    Commission,” 
    id.
     Criterion 5B(5)(c), with this ACL being “as
    low as reasonably achievable” so remaining hazardous
    chemicals or minerals in the groundwater “will not pose a
    substantial present or potential hazard to human health or the
    environment,” 
    id.
     Criterion 5B(6). Contention No. 2 charged
    Strata with “fail[ing] to analyze the environmental impacts that
    will occur if [Strata] cannot restore groundwater to primary or
    secondary limits” — that is, if Strata were forced to restore
    groundwater to an ACL. Strata I at 212.
    5
    Contention No. 3 dealt with the risk of excursions; it
    claimed Strata had “fail[ed] to include adequate hydrological
    information to demonstrate [its] ability to contain groundwater
    fluid migration.” 
    Id.
     Finally, Contention No. 4/5A asserted
    that Strata had further expansion plans for the Lance District
    but had “fail[ed] to adequately assess cumulative impacts of the
    proposed action and the planned Lance District expansion
    project.” 
    Id.
    Once the Commission receives a license application, the
    Commission staff prepares a draft environmental impact
    statement (EIS), which analyzes the environmental effect of the
    proposal and of any alternatives. See 
    10 C.F.R. §§ 51.70-71
    .
    The Commission can “migrate” contentions made against an
    initial license application (that is, “deem[] [them] to apply”) to
    the draft EIS or final EIS (FEIS) if “the information in the [draft
    EIS or FEIS] is sufficiently similar to the material in the
    [license application]” that the contention remains relevant. In
    re Strata Energy, Inc. (Ross In Situ Recovery Uranium Project)
    (Strata IV), 
    83 N.R.C. 566
    , 570 n.17 (2016) (internal quotation
    marks omitted).
    After the staff completed its draft EIS, the Atomic Safety
    and Licensing Board that conducted the hearing occasioned by
    the Councils’ intervention permitted the Council to migrate
    Contentions Nos. 1, 2, and 3 to the draft EIS. It disallowed
    Contention No. 4/5A on the ground that “the substantive basis
    of the cumulative impacts analysis asserted to be inadequate in
    the [license application] differs significantly from that
    provided in the [draft EIS].” In re Strata Energy, Inc. (Ross In
    Situ Recovery Uranium Project) (Strata II), LBP-13-10, 
    2013 WL 8433972
    , at *21 (N.R.C. July 26, 2013). The Board noted
    that, if a contention is not obviously going to be migrated, then
    its proponent should either seek to amend it or have it treated
    as a new contention pursuant to 
    10 C.F.R. § 2.309
    (c)(1) and
    6
    (f)(1), failing which the contention may be lost. 
    Id.
     at *22 n.15.
    The Board also declined to admit a new Contention No. 6. 
    Id. at *22-29
    .
    A draft EIS is subject to public comment. 
    10 C.F.R. § 51.73
    . Per Commission regulations, once comments have
    been received and addressed, the staff publishes its FEIS, 
    id.
    § 51.91(a)(1), a record of decision, id. § 51.102, and a decision
    on whether to issue a license, id. § 2.1202(a). The staff
    published the FEIS for the Ross Project in March 2014. 
    79 Fed. Reg. 13,683
     (March 11, 2014). Shortly thereafter, it
    issued a record of decision, rejected all the Councils’ remaining
    contentions, and granted Strata a license.
    2. The NEPA
    In order to ensure that agencies consider the environmental
    consequences of their actions, the NEPA requires them to
    “include in every recommendation or report on … major
    Federal actions significantly affecting the quality of the human
    environment, a detailed statement … on … the environmental
    impact of the proposed action.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 4332
    (C)(i). This
    requirement is meant both to guarantee an agency will
    “consider every significant aspect of the environmental impact
    of a proposed action” and “inform the public” that it has done
    so, Baltimore Gas & Electric Co. v. NRDC, Inc., 
    462 U.S. 87
    ,
    97 (1983) (internal quotation marks omitted), and to “focus[]
    the agency’s attention on the environmental consequences of a
    proposed project … [so] that important effects will not be
    overlooked or underestimated only to be discovered after
    resources have been committed or the die otherwise cast.”
    Robertson v. Methow Valley Citizens Council, 
    490 U.S. 332
    ,
    349 (1989).
    7
    Here the parties agree the relevant report for NEPA
    purposes is the FEIS, but the evidentiary hearing to which the
    Councils were entitled under the AEA took place some six
    months after the FEIS and the license had been issued. See 
    79 Fed. Reg. 44,471
     (July 31, 2014). This was in keeping with
    Commission regulations, as “the NRC staff is expected to
    promptly issue its approval or denial of [a license] application,”
    even “[d]uring the pendency of any hearing.” 
    10 C.F.R. § 2.1202
    (a).
    In January 2015, the Board issued a decision on the
    Councils’ remaining contentions. In re Strata Energy, Inc.
    (Ross In Situ Recovery Uranium Project) (Strata III), 
    81 N.R.C. 65
     (2015). It rejected all their contentions and found
    no fault with the decision to issue the license. It did, however,
    find one fault with the FEIS itself — namely, that it did not
    include enough information concerning post-mining aquifer
    restoration to an ACL at ISL mining sites other than the Ross
    Project. 
    Id. at ¶¶ 4
    .87-4.89 & n.49. The Board, however,
    rejected the Councils’ argument that it should invalidate the
    license on the ground that the FEIS was inadequate at the time
    the license was issued. Instead, the Board decided staff
    testimony in the record before it dealing with restoration to an
    ACL at other sites served to “supplement[]” the FEIS, thus
    making it adequate to support issuance of the license. 
    Id. at ¶ 4
    .89.
    Strata sought review by the Commission of the Board’s
    decisions supplementing the FEIS, refusing to migrate
    Contention No. 4/5A, and rejecting Contention No. 6; it also
    raised various substantive objections to the license. The
    Commission rejected all Strata’s arguments, with one
    Commissioner dissenting in part on the ground that
    supplementation of the FEIS meant the license was issued
    before the FEIS was complete, in violation of the NEPA.
    8
    Strata IV, 
    83 N.R.C. 566
    . The Councils here raise essentially
    the same arguments they made to the Commission that its
    actions violated the NEPA and were arbitrary and capricious in
    violation of the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2)(A).
    II.     Analysis
    The APA, of course, requires this court to “hold unlawful
    and set aside agency action, findings, and conclusions found to
    be arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not
    in accordance with law.” 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2)(A). “Upon review
    of the EIS, our job is to ensure that the agency took a ‘hard
    look’ at the environmental consequences of its decision to go
    forward with the project.” City of Grapevine, Tex. v. Dep’t of
    Transp., 
    17 F.3d 1502
    , 1503-04 (D.C. Cir. 1994). “In doing
    so, we are mindful that our role is not to ‘flyspeck an agency’s
    environmental analysis, looking for any deficiency no matter
    how minor.’” WildEarth Guardians v. Jewell, 
    738 F.3d 298
    ,
    319 (D.C. Cir. 2013) (quoting Nevada v. Dep’t of Energy, 
    457 F.3d 78
    , 93 (D.C. Cir. 2006)).
    A. Failure to Migrate Contention No. 4/5A and to Admit
    Contention No. 6
    The Councils complain first that the Board refused to
    migrate Contention No. 4/5A from the license application to
    the draft EIS and that it refused to allow their new Contention
    No. 6.
    1. Contention No. 4/5A
    The Board will permit the migration of a contention if the
    analysis at which it is directed is substantially the same in the
    license application and in the draft EIS. That was not the case
    9
    here; the discussion of possible cumulative effects associated
    with the Ross Project was substantially more thorough in the
    draft EIS than in the license application. Strata II, 
    2013 WL 8433972
     at *21-22 and n.15. The Board also declined to
    amend the Contention sua sponte to apply to the discussion in
    the draft EIS; amended contentions must satisfy the “good
    cause” factors set out in 
    10 C.F.R. § 2.309
    (c)(1), and the
    Councils failed even to imply they wanted to amend
    Contention No. 4/5A and failed to mention those factors in
    their application to migrate the Contention. 
    Id.
    The Councils charge the Board’s refusal to migrate
    Contention No. 4/5A elevated form over substance:
    Information showing they did have good cause and that the
    basis for Contention No. 4/5A did not differ substantially
    between the license application and the draft EIS was available
    in the record, and the Board should have found it even if the
    Councils themselves did not specifically point to it. But a court
    is not required to plumb the record for “novel arguments a
    [litigant] could have made but did not,” United States v.
    Laureys, 
    653 F.3d 27
    , 32 (D.C. Cir. 2011); cf. United States v.
    Dunkel, 
    927 F.2d 955
    , 956 (7th Cir. 1991) (“Judges are not like
    pigs, hunting for truffles buried in briefs”), and we see no
    reason agency officials engaged in adjudication should be any
    more obligated than judges to do counsels’ work for them. We
    are unwilling, therefore, to fault the Board for failing to hunt
    for such evidence when the Councils themselves did not even
    imply they wanted to amend their Contention.
    2. Contention No. 6
    The Councils’ proposed Contention No. 6 challenged the
    failure of the draft EIS to consider the environmental
    consequences of mining the entire Lance District, as opposed
    to just the Ross Project. Strata II, 
    2013 WL 8433972
     at *23.
    10
    The Commission’s own regulations require that various
    projects be considered in a single EIS if they are “connected,”
    “cumulative,” or “similar.” 
    40 C.F.R. § 1508.25
    (a). A
    contention that a set of projects is connected, cumulative, or
    similar must, however, like any other contention, be made in a
    timely manner, as specified in 
    10 C.F.R. § 2.309
    (c)(1)(iii); here
    the Board held any argument that Ross Project was cumulative
    with or similar to other projects was not timely because the
    information necessary for making that argument was available
    in various press releases from Strata and its parent company
    well before the Councils attempted to file Contention No. 6.
    Strata II, 
    2013 WL 8433972
     at *28.
    The Councils do not challenge that decision. They do,
    however, challenge the Board’s conclusion that the Ross
    Project and future Lance District projects were not “connected”
    within the meaning of § 1508.25(a), though they do so in vague
    terms.
    Section 1508.25(a)(1)(iii) defines “connected” projects as
    projects that “[a]re interdependent parts of a larger action and
    depend on the larger action for their justification.” The Board
    concluded the Ross Project was not dependent upon any future
    project because the Ross Project had “independent utility” —
    meaning the Ross Project was viable even if no other part of
    the Lance District were to be developed. Strata II at *26-27
    (citing Thomas v. Peterson, 
    753 F.2d 754
    , 759 (9th Cir. 1985)).
    Beyond a vague allusion to “other evidence,” all the Councils
    offer this court to show the Ross Project lacked independent
    utility is that it “was intended to service the larger Lance
    District operation” and “Strata’s parent company had publicly
    announced the larger development plans.” This simply does
    not respond to the Board’s finding that the Ross Project was
    economically viable standing alone.           That its sponsor
    envisioned it as part of a larger uranium production complex
    11
    does not mean the Ross Project would not have been built
    absent the larger production complex that Strata hoped
    eventually to develop.
    B. Supplementation of the EIS Post-Licensure
    The Councils’ other procedural complaint focuses upon
    the supplementation of the FEIS after the staff had issued a
    license to Strata. As stated above, when the staff issued the
    license the Board had found only one flaw with the FEIS and
    the Record of Decision, namely, that the FEIS did not contain
    enough information on other aquifers previously restored to
    ACLs after the completion of an ISL mining project. Strata III,
    81 N.R.C. at ¶¶ 4.87-4.89 & n.49. Nevertheless, the Board held
    “the post-restoration uranium concentration levels reported in
    the Staff’s prefiled [hearing] testimony supplements the [FEIS]
    so as to cure any defect in that regard.” Id. at ¶ 4.89.
    When the Councils challenged this supplementation on
    appeal, the Commission denied review because “the Board
    evaluated the Staff’s analysis and determined that, with the
    additional information considered at the hearing and in the
    Staff’s prefiled testimony, the environmental impacts of the
    proposed licensing action were appropriately identified.”
    Strata IV, 83 N.R.C. at 594. In addition, the Commission noted
    it had “previously held that a Board’s hearing, hearing record,
    and subsequent decision on a contested environmental matter
    augment the environmental record of decision developed by the
    Staff with respect to this issue.” Id. at 595 (citing In re Entergy
    Nuclear Ops., Inc. (Indian Point, Units 2 and 3), 
    81 N.R.C. 340
    , 388 (2015)).
    Commissioner Baran, dissenting, concluded that “the
    adjudicatory decision or proceedings cannot supplement the
    NEPA environmental document or Record of Decision after the
    12
    fact because the licensing action has already been taken in
    reliance on the NEPA analysis.” 
    Id. at 604
    . “[O]nly with the
    additional information considered at the hearing, were the
    environmental impacts of the proposed licensing action
    appropriately identified.” 
    Id.
     Therefore, the NEPA analysis
    itself was inadequate to justify the decision made. 
    Id.
    In its petition for review by this court, the Councils renew
    their arguments, and adopt the point Commissioner Baran
    made in his dissent. In short, their argument is that the purpose
    of the NEPA is to “insure that environmental information is
    available to public officials and citizens before decisions are
    made and before actions are taken,” 
    40 C.F.R. § 1500.1
    (b), and
    the Board as much as admitted the FEIS failed in that regard.
    Relatedly, the Councils cite Robertson for the proposition that
    the NEPA is an information-forcing statute, intended to require
    agencies to have all the relevant information before “resources
    have been committed or the die otherwise cast.” 
    490 U.S. at 349
    .
    These are not idle concerns. We must consider, however,
    the exact nature of the initial decision to issue the license. The
    Commission seeks to portray the initial licensing decision as
    entirely provisional; that is not quite correct for, as the Councils
    charge (and the Commission does not deny), Strata was
    authorized to begin digging immediately upon receipt of the
    license. At the same time, the license was provisional in the
    most meaningful sense; no portion of it was irrevocable, and
    the Commission’s own regulations make clear that the Board
    can amend or rescind a license after it has been issued. 
    10 C.F.R. § 2.340
    (e)(2). Indeed, the Board did amend the license
    to increase the area in which Strata was required to attempt to
    locate and to fill previously dug boreholes. See Strata III at
    ¶ 4.131.
    13
    Moreover, the Councils have not pointed to any harmful
    consequence of the supplementation; the Board came to the
    same decision after it had considered the supplemental
    information, and there is nothing to be gained by remanding the
    matter to the Commission for the staff or the Board to consider
    the same information again.
    Indeed, as the Commission points out, we encountered this
    same situation in Friends of the River (FOTR) v. FERC, 
    720 F.2d 93
     (D.C. Cir. 1983). The project at issue there was a
    hydroelectric dam; intervenors had challenged the plan to build
    the dam, arguing that the power need could be met by
    purchasing power produced by existing facilities. 
    720 F.2d at 95-97
    . The FEIS had “accorded only summary attention to
    [that] concern.” 
    Id. at 97
    . The FERC issued the license for the
    dam, and only when it denied the intervenors’ petition for
    rehearing did it provide a “cogent[]” explanation of “why [it]
    rejected prospects for further reliance on purchased power as a
    ground for refusing the license.” 
    Id.
    Despite this post-license supplementation of the record of
    decision, we upheld the FERC’s determination, rejecting
    essentially the same points the Councils raise here. We noted
    that the NEPA “establishes an essentially procedural
    requirement” that agencies “present evidence and discussion
    relevant to their environmental decisionmaking in one
    comprehensive document — the [EIS].” 
    Id. at 105-06
     (internal
    quotation marks omitted). We held the FERC failed to
    “measure up to NEPA’s command.” 
    Id. at 106
    .
    Nevertheless, we did not remand the matter for
    reconsideration because that would have been futile. Had we
    done so, the agency would have been required to investigate
    the possibility of purchasing power from alternative sources,
    but “well before the start of [our] review … the [FERC] did
    14
    make such an investigation” and “incorporated its findings in
    an opinion accessible to the public.” 
    Id.
     Public Employees for
    Environmental Responsibility v. Hopper, 
    827 F.3d 1077
     (D.C.
    Cir. 2016), upon which the Councils rely, is quite different.
    There the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management did not
    adequately consider the seafloor surrounding a wind energy
    project because it never undertook seafloor surveys. 
    Id. at 1082-84
    . The intervenor, Cape Wind, the proponent of the
    project at issue, acknowledged the FEIS required those surveys
    but said they had in fact been done. 
    Id. at 1083
    . The surveys
    were never acknowledged in agency decisions, however, and
    were never made available to the public; hence, the agency had
    not adopted them in any meaningful way, and a remand was in
    order. 
    Id.
     This is unlike the situation here, where the agency
    recognized the inadequacy in the record of decision and
    corrected it before being challenged in court.
    This case is on all fours with FOTR, not Hopper. Here,
    the Commission had adequately augmented its decision before
    being challenged in this court, and did so in a publicly
    accessible opinion. As in FOTR, “[w]e are not left to rely on
    post hoc rationalizations … [because] we have before us [the
    Commission’s] assessment, embodied in an opinion composed
    after due investigation and before the matter was brought to
    court.” 
    720 F.2d at 106-07
    . Moreover:
    Sending [this decision] back “to teach the agency a
    lesson” would be an essentially punitive measure; we
    can discern no benefit to the public in such a course,
    and no genuine service to the policies NEPA
    advances…. Remands in such cases would inevitably
    breed cynicism about court commands; they would
    likely yield going-through-the-motions responses on
    the part of those told to attend to the court’s costly,
    resource-consuming instruction to redo, under the
    15
    proper heading, what has already been done
    effectively.
    
    Id. at 107-08
    .
    The Councils offer two grounds for distinguishing FOTR,
    but neither is convincing. The first is that in FOTR the license
    was issued only after the FEIS had been made adequate. This
    is incorrect; in FOTR the license was issued in February 1982
    but the FERC adequately confronted the alternative of
    purchasing power for the first time some months later, in
    denying rehearing of the initial decision to grant the license.
    
    Id. at 97
    .
    The second ground, raised for the first time at oral
    argument, is that FOTR dealt with consideration of potential
    alternatives to a given project, whereas this case deals with the
    potential environmental effects of the project itself. This
    belated assertion is true but irrelevant, for the two requirements
    stand on the same footing. The NEPA requires that an EIS or
    other similar report include a statement both of “any adverse
    environmental effects which cannot be avoided should the
    proposal be implemented” and of “alternatives to the proposed
    action.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 4332
    (C)(ii)-(iii). So too do the
    Commission’s own regulations. 
    10 C.F.R. § 51.45
    (b)(2), (3).
    If the FEIS is required in one breath to consider both the
    environmental effects of a proposed project and potential
    alternatives to that project, then we cannot say the failure of
    one FEIS adequately to consider a potential alternative is
    somehow less important than the failure of another adequately
    to consider a potential effect of the proposed project.
    We do not mean to imply the procedure the Board
    followed was ideal or even desirable. Certainly it would be
    preferable for the FEIS to contain all relevant information and
    16
    the record of decision to be complete and adequate before the
    license is issued. FOTR, however, makes clear that even if this
    procedure was not ideal it was permissible, and common sense
    counsels against prolonging this dispute by requiring an utterly
    pointless proceeding on remand.
    C. Potential Negative Effect on the Mined Aquifer
    (Contention No. 2)
    The first of the Councils’ substantive claims is that the
    Board erred in rejecting Contention No. 2, viz., that Strata
    “fail[ed] to analyze the environmental impacts that will occur
    if [it] cannot restore groundwater to primary or secondary
    limits.” Strata I, 75 N.R.C. at 212. In the Councils’ view,
    Strata will inevitably restore groundwater in the mined aquifer
    to an ACL, and the FEIS failed adequately to analyze the
    potential environmental effects of restoration to an ACL.
    Though the Councils’ brief is not entirely clear on this issue,
    we discern two main complaints: (i) the FEIS did not have
    enough evidence regarding restoration to an ACL at other sites
    and (ii) in making its determination the staff relied solely upon
    the mined aquifer never being used for drinking water.
    We have already held it was acceptable for the Board to
    augment the FEIS with additional information regarding the
    restoration of other sites to an ACL. The Councils do not
    challenge the Board’s determination that the information
    contained in the FEIS, once supplemented with the staff’s
    prefiled hearing testimony, was a sufficient discussion of
    previous restorations to an ACL. Their first complaint is
    therefore moot.
    The Councils’ second complaint also fails. The aquifer at
    issue is “exempted” from being a source of drinking water —
    meaning “[i]t does not currently serve as a source of drinking
    17
    water” and “[i]t cannot now and will not in the future serve as
    a source of drinking water because … [i]t is mineral,
    hydrocarbon or geothermal energy producing.” 
    40 C.F.R. § 146.4
    (a)-(b)(1). In the Councils’ view, the Board simply
    concluded that the effect of the mining project upon the aquifer
    would be “small” because the effect of any mining project upon
    any exempted aquifer would be “small,” and saying no more
    violated the requirement in the NEPA to disclose all adverse
    environmental effects of a major federal action.
    In accordance with the NRC’s usual practice, see
    ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW G UIDANCE FOR LICENSING ACTIONS
    ASSOCIATED WITH NMSS PROGRAMS § 4.2.5.3 (2003)
    (NUREG-1748), the FEIS defines “small” effects as effects
    that are “not detectable … or so minor that they will neither
    destabilize nor noticeably alter any important attribute of the
    resource considered.” “Large” effects, by contrast, “are clearly
    noticeable and are sufficient to destabilize important attributes
    of the resource considered.” The definition of “medium”
    effects is not important, for these definitions reveal the
    Councils’ mischaracterization of the Board’s decision: The
    Board did not conclude that any effect upon an exempted
    aquifer would be “small”; rather, it found “there ha[d] been no
    showing that the impacts from employing an ACL will be
    ‘clearly noticeable’ and ‘sufficient to destabilize important
    attributes of [the resource].’” Strata III, 81 N.R.C. at ¶ 4.107
    (quoting the FEIS). That is, the Board concluded the effect
    would not be large, not that the effect would be small. This
    conclusion is unavoidable: Because it is “exempt,” the only
    resource the aquifer has to offer is the uranium that can be
    mined from it, and we cannot see how actually mining the
    uranium would destabilize an important attribute of the aquifer.
    In any event, the exempt status of the aquifer was not the
    only basis for the Board’s conclusion. The Board also noted
    18
    “there have been no reported instances of an excursion from an
    [ISL mining] facility negatively impacting drinking water.” Id.
    It further stated that if Strata were to seek to restore the aquifer
    to an ACL, “a license amendment would be required, triggering
    another NEPA review, and a hearing opportunity, which will
    involve the analysis of more specific water quality data.” Id.
    Finally, it pointed out that the license itself included conditions
    designed to prevent precisely the kind of environmental
    damage the Councils fear. Id. In sum, the record belies the
    Councils’ suggestion that the staff and the Board relied solely
    upon the exempted status of the aquifer.
    D. Incorrect Evaluation of the Risks of Off-Site
    Groundwater Contamination (Contention No. 3)
    Finally, the Councils petition for review of the
    Commission’s treatment of Contention No. 3. The Ross
    Project site is replete with improperly filled boreholes from
    previous exploratory digs; the Councils’ concern is that the
    presence of these unfilled boreholes presents an increased risk
    of excursions.
    1. Circular reasoning
    The Councils’ initial criticism of the Commission
    concerning Contention No. 3 is that it left undisturbed the
    Board’s circular reasoning. Specifically, the Councils point to
    a footnote in the Board’s order saying that the staff “has an
    additional incentive … [to] ensure that [Strata’s] … ‘attempt’
    to locate and [properly] abandon all [unfilled boreholes] …
    embodies a level of effort that maximizes the potential for
    eliminating excursions” because the staff will want “to fully
    support its predicative finding of SMALL long-term impacts
    from fluid migration.” Strata III, 81 N.R.C. at ¶ 4.128 n.66. In
    other words, the staff will ensure that the long-term effects of
    19
    excursions are small because it will want to vindicate its
    characterization in the FEIS of long-term effects as small. The
    Councils claim this reasoning is circular and violates the
    NEPA, which requires that the FEIS to be a forward-looking,
    predictive document, as opposed to a goal the agency staff have
    an incentive to achieve.
    The Board’s reasoning here is indeed somewhat circular,
    but it is of minor importance to the Board’s decision. Its
    reference in the margin to the staff’s desire to live up to the
    FEIS as an “additional incentive” implies there are other, no
    doubt more important, incentives at work. Indeed, the Board
    focused primarily upon the terms of the license itself, which
    required Strata to attempt to locate and to fill all boreholes in
    the area, to undertake additional tests before beginning
    production to prevent excursions, and to stop work
    immediately upon detection of an excursion. Id. at ¶ 4.128. It
    is only reasonable for the Board to rely upon the conditions in
    the license to determine the likely environmental effects of
    issuing the license, at least when the licensee — like Strata —
    does not have a record of failing to comply with license
    conditions. In analogous situations, we have permitted other
    agencies to rely upon the actions they have required in
    mitigation when predicting effects in an environmental
    analysis under the NEPA.             See Theodore Roosevelt
    Conservation P’ship v. Salazar, 
    616 F.3d 497
    , 515-17 (D.C.
    Cir. 2010) (rejecting the argument that taking into account
    adaptive mitigation measures when measuring environmental
    effects violated the NEPA); see also Sierra Club v. Van
    Antwerp, 
    661 F.3d 1147
    , 1154 (D.C. Cir. 2011) (noting that
    “we have found” “mitigation measures” can reduce the
    environmental effects of a major federal action).
    The Councils also accuse the Commission of ignoring
    contrary data it was provided in expert reports by Drs. Lance
    20
    Larson and Richard Abitz, which they claim show that other
    companies with similar license conditions left boreholes
    unfilled. We confess to being puzzled by this accusation, as
    the Board specifically acknowledged this contrary evidence.
    See Strata III, 81 N.R.C. at ¶ 4.124 (acknowledging both
    experts’ testimony). The Board simply came to a contrary
    conclusion on a technical subject as to which we owe the
    Commission some deference. Chritton v. NTSB, 
    888 F.2d 854
    ,
    856 (D.C. Cir. 1989).*
    2. Inconsistent treatment of similar data
    The Councils’ second claim with regard to Contention No.
    3 is that the Board, in its analysis of Contention No. 1, was
    willing to accept that various well samples could be averaged
    to produce baseline water quality data, see Strata III, 81 N.R.C.
    at ¶¶ 4.32-4.34, whereas when it came to the data the Councils
    presented in support of Contention No. 3, the Board was
    unwilling to accept a similar averaging. Of course, it would be
    arbitrary and capricious for the agency’s decision making to be
    “internally inconsistent.” Air Transp. Ass’n of Am. v. Dep’t of
    Transp., 
    119 F.3d 38
    , 43 (D.C. Cir. 1997). In this case,
    however, there was no inconsistency.
    The Councils misunderstand the Board’s reasoning. The
    Board rejected Dr. Abitz’s testimony not because he averaged
    various samples to decide whether two aquifers were mixing;
    instead, the Board objected to his choice of a control.
    Specifically, Abitz proposed that test well 14-18OZ be “taken
    *
    The Councils argue their real concern is with the terms of the
    license itself — namely, that it requires Strata only to “attempt” to
    locate and to fill the boreholes, instead of simply requiring Strata to
    do so. We do not consider this argument because it was first raised
    in the reply brief and hence is forfeit. See Great Lakes Chem. Corp.
    v. NLRB, 
    967 F.2d 624
    , 630 (D.C. Cir. 1992).
    21
    as [indicative of] the unmixed groundwater from the ore
    horizon.” The Board deemed this proposal speculative because
    Abitz provided no evidence to support it. Strata III, 81 N.R.C.
    at ¶ 4.141. Based upon staff testimony, the Board instead
    concluded that well 14-18OZ was likely to be unrepresentative
    of unmixed groundwater and therefore a poor choice for a
    baseline. 
    Id.
     Obviously, there is no inconsistency in accepting
    the average from a number of wells in one test while rejecting
    the choice of a particular well as the control or baseline for
    another.
    III.    Conclusion
    The procedure followed by the Commission in this matter
    was not ideal, but there was no harm and no foul under either
    the NEPA or the APA, and hence there is no point in remanding
    the matter on that score. Nor have the Councils identified any
    substantive flaws in the Commission’s decisions. The
    Councils’ petition for review is therefore
    Denied.