National Lifeline Association v. FCC (AMENDED OPINION) ( 2019 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued October 25, 2018             Decided February 1, 2019
    Amended April 10, 2019
    No. 18-1026
    NATIONAL LIFELINE ASSOCIATION, ET AL.,
    PETITIONERS
    v.
    FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION AND UNITED
    STATES OF AMERICA,
    RESPONDENTS
    OCETI SAKOWIN TRIBAL UTILITY AUTHORITY,
    INTERVENOR
    Consolidated with 18-1080
    On Petitions for Review of an Order of
    the Federal Communications Commission
    John J. Heitmann argued the cause and filed the briefs for
    petitioners National Lifeline Association, et al.
    V. Shiva Goel argued the cause for petitioner Crow Creek
    Sioux Tribe and intervenor Oceti Sakowin Tribal Utility
    2
    Authority. With him on the joint briefs were Christopher J.
    Wright and John T. Nakahata.
    Thaila K. Sundaresan, Counsel, Federal Communications
    Commission, argued the cause for respondents. With her on
    the brief were Robert B. Nicholson and Frances E. Marshall,
    Attorneys, U.S. Department of Justice, Thomas M. Johnson Jr.,
    General Counsel, Federal Communications Commission,
    David M. Gossett, Deputy General Counsel, and Jacob M.
    Lewis, Associate General Counsel. Richard K. Welch, Deputy
    Assistant General Counsel, Federal Communications
    Commission and William T. Shaw, Attorney Advisor, U.S.
    Department of Justice, entered appearances.
    Before: ROGERS and GRIFFITH, Circuit Judges, and
    RANDOLPH, Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the court filed by Circuit Judge ROGERS.
    ROGERS, Circuit Judge: Responding to Congressional
    directives, the Federal Communications Commission has
    adopted programs to make voice and broadband services more
    available and affordable for low-income consumers by
    providing a discount on these services through its Lifeline
    program. Since 1985, eligible low-income consumers may
    receive a monthly discount of $9.25 on qualifying services, and
    since 2000, low-income consumers living on Tribal lands may
    receive an additional $25 per month for these services through
    the Tribal Lifeline program in recognition of the additional
    hurdles to affordable telecommunications service on Tribal
    lands. In 2017, however, the Commission adopted two
    limitations that petitioners challenge: First, it limited this
    enhanced Tribal Lifeline subsidy to services provided by
    eligible telecommunications carriers that utilize their own fixed
    or mobile wireless facilities, excluding carriers that resell
    3
    services provided over other carriers’ facilities (“Tribal
    Facilities Requirement”). Second, it limited the enhanced
    Tribal Lifeline subsidy to residents of “rural” areas on Tribal
    lands (“Tribal Rural Limitation”).
    For the following reasons, we grant the petitions for
    review. The Commission’s adoption of these two limitations
    was arbitrary and capricious by not providing a reasoned
    explanation for its change of policy that is supported by record
    evidence. In adopting the Tribal Facilities Requirement, the
    Commission’s decision evinces no consideration of the exodus
    of facilities-based providers from the Tribal Lifeline program.
    Neither does it point to evidence that banning resellers from the
    Tribal Lifeline program would promote network buildout. Nor
    does it analyze the impact of the facilities requirement on
    Tribal residents who currently rely on wireless resellers.
    Further, the Commission ignored that its decision is a
    fundamental change that adversely affects the access and
    affordability of service for residents of Tribal lands. Similarly,
    in adopting the Tribal Rural Limitation, the Commission’s
    decision evinces no consideration of the impact on service
    access and affordability. Its decision does not examine
    wireless deployment data related to services to which most
    Tribal Lifeline recipients subscribe.
    Various non-harmless procedural deficiencies exist as
    well. The Commission failed to provide an adequate
    opportunity for comment on the proposed limitations. For
    instance, the 2017 supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking
    lacked key information needed for interested persons to
    anticipate that small towns below 10,000 in population would
    be excluded. Because the Commission stated that it intended
    to address remaining Tribal issues in a future rulemaking,
    petitioners reasonably did not submit current data on
    abandonment of the Lifeline program by facilities-based
    4
    providers. Two weeks’ notice in the form of an unpublished
    draft order was inadequate.
    I.
    In the Communications Act of 1934, Congress stated its
    goal was to “make available, so far as possible, to all the people
    of the United States . . . a rapid, efficient, Nation-wide, and
    world-wide wire and radio communication service with
    adequate facilities at reasonable charges.” 47 U.S.C. § 151.
    Congress reinforced this universal service goal in the
    Telecommunications Act of 1996, providing that “[q]uality
    services should be available at just, reasonable, and affordable
    rates” and that “[c]onsumers in all regions of the Nation,
    including low-income consumers . . . should have access to
    telecommunications and information services.” 47 U.S.C.
    § 254(b)(1), (3) (“1996 Act”).          The Commission has
    responded, as relevant here, by adopting various iterations of
    the Lifeline program. Some background is required to place
    petitioners’ current challenges in context.
    In 1985, the Commission created the Lifeline program to
    ensure that low-income consumers had access to affordable,
    landline telephone service following the divesture of AT&T.1
    Recognizing that “[a]ccess to telephone service has become
    crucial to full participation in our society and economy” and
    that “an increase in fixed charges for telephone service” could
    “cause a significant number of subscribers to cancel service,”
    the Commission provided an offset of subscriber line charges
    for low-income households. See 1985 Order, note 1, at 941–
    42. In 1997, still concerned “over the low subscribership levels
    1
    MTS and WATS Market Structure; and Establishment of a
    Joint Board; Amendment, Report and Order, 50 Fed. Reg. 939
    (Jan. 8, 1985) (“1985 Order”).
    5
    among low-income consumers,” the Commission, in response
    to § 254 of the 1996 Act, transformed the Lifeline program into
    a stand-alone universal service program “designed to make
    residential service more affordable for low-income
    consumers.”2
    The Lifeline program thus offers each eligible low-income
    household a baseline monthly discount of $9.25 to offset the
    costs of a wireline or wireless voice and broadband service
    plan. 47 C.F.R. § 54.403(a)(1). Lifeline service may be
    provided only by eligible telecommunications carriers
    (“ETCs”), which are either certified by state public service
    commissions or designated by the Commission. 47 U.S.C.
    § 214(e)(2), (6). The discount is provided as a subsidy to these
    ETCs, which in turn pass through the subsidy to provide their
    services to low-income consumers at reduced costs. 47 C.F.R.
    § 54.403(a)(1). The ETCs may allow eligible low-income
    consumers, as defined by § 54.409, to apply their discount to
    any service plan meeting certain minimum service standards.
    
    Id. § 54.401(b).
    In 2000, the Commission established the Tribal Lifeline
    program to provide an enhanced monthly subsidy of $25 for
    residents of federally recognized Tribal lands.3 See 47 C.F.R.
    § 54.403(a)(3). There was a “need for immediate Commission
    action to promote the deployment of telecommunications
    facilities in tribal areas and to provide the support necessary to
    increase subscribership . . . for the benefit of those living on”
    2
    Federal-State Joint Board on Universal Service, Report and
    Order, 12 FCC Rcd. 8776, ¶¶ 346, 406 (1997) (“1997 Order”).
    3
    Federal-State Joint Board on Universal Service et al.,
    Twelfth Report and Order, 15 FCC Rcd. 12208, ¶¶ 5, 13 (2000)
    (“2000 Tribal Lifeline Order”).
    6
    Tribal lands. 2000 Tribal Lifeline Order, note 3, ¶ 5. At that
    time, statistics showed that households on reservations and
    other Tribal lands had the lowest reported telephone
    subscribership levels in the nation. 
    Id. ¶¶ 5,
    26. The
    Commission recognized that the critical lack of access to
    telecommunications services on Tribal lands threatened
    Tribes’ access to no less than “education, commerce,
    government, and public services” and therefore their “tribal
    sovereignty and self-governance.” 
    Id. ¶ 23.
    The Commission’s “primary goal” in adopting the
    enhanced subsidy was to “reduce the monthly cost of
    telecommunications services for qualifying low-income
    individuals on tribal lands, so as to encourage those without
    service to initiate service and better enable those currently
    subscribed to maintain service.” 
    Id. ¶ 44.
    It determined that a
    “substantial additional amount of support” was necessary to
    increase subscribership in view of “(1) the extraordinarily low
    average per capita and household incomes in tribal areas,
    (2) the excessive toll charges that many subscribers incur as a
    result of limited local calling areas on tribal lands, (3) the
    disproportionately low subscribership levels in tribal areas, and
    (4) the apparent limited awareness of, and participation in, the
    existing Lifeline program.” 
    Id. Three secondary
    benefits of
    the enhanced Tribal subsidy were: (1) encouraging deployment
    of telecommunications facilities on Tribal lands that currently
    lack such facilities, (2) spurring competition from new entrants
    offering alternative technologies, and (3) reducing barriers to
    increased penetration that are caused by limited local calling
    areas. 
    Id. ¶¶ 52–58.
    Prior to adopting the enhanced Tribal subsidy, the
    Commission had consulted various Tribal leaders in formal
    field hearings, Commissioner-level meetings, and informal
    meetings. The Commission then “reaffirm[ed] . . . principles
    7
    of Tribal Sovereignty and the Federal Trust Responsibility,”
    and committed going forward, “to the extent practicable, [to]
    consult with Tribal governments prior to implementing any
    regulatory action or policy that will significantly or uniquely
    affect Tribal governments, their land and resources.”4 The
    Commission also agreed to streamline processes and
    procedures placing “undue burdens” on Indian Tribes. Tribal
    Policy Statement, note 4, at 4082 ¶ 4.
    To keep pace with various market forces resulting in the
    phase out by major carriers from the Lifeline program, the
    Commission decided to allow non-facilities-based providers
    (or “wireless resellers”) to provide Lifeline services, beginning
    in 2005. Under the 1996 Act, an ETC must “offer the services
    that are supported by Federal universal service support
    mechanisms” “either using its own facilities or a combination
    of its own facilities and resale of another carrier’s services.” 47
    U.S.C. § 214(e)(1).        Since 1997, the Commission had
    interpreted “own facilities” to mean that non-facilities-based
    providers, who purchased telecommunications service
    wholesale from other carriers that owned the facilities and then
    resold it to consumers, were ineligible for Lifeline support.
    Otherwise, wireline resellers would be able to “double
    recover,” once through the universal service subsidy and again
    through subsidized wholesale rates. See 1997 Order, note 2,
    ¶ 161. In 2005, the Commission concluded the “own facilities”
    requirement met the 1996 Act’s criteria for forbearance, and
    excused TracFone, a non-facilities-based provider, from this
    4
    Statement of Policy on Establishing a Government-to-
    Government Relationship with Indian Tribes, Policy
    Statement, 16 FCC Rcd. 4078, 4080, 4081 ¶ 2 (2000) (“Tribal
    Policy Statement”).
    8
    requirement.5 Addressing the three forbearance factors in 47
    U.S.C. § 160(a), the Commission found (1) the “own facilities”
    requirement was unnecessary to achieve the Lifeline program’s
    purposes because there is no double recovery as wireless
    resellers’ rates are not subsidized, 2005 Forbearance Order,
    note 5, ¶¶ 11–12; (2) the requirement was unnecessary to
    protect consumers, and forbearance would benefit consumers
    by offering them previously unavailable choice of providers,
    
    id. ¶ 15;
    and (3) forbearance was in the public interest because
    it would expand eligible participation in the program, 
    id. ¶ 24.
    The Commission observed that only “one-third of [Lifeline-
    eligible] households” subscribed to Lifeline services and
    predicted that allowing non-facilities-based providers like
    TracFone to participate “should expand participation of
    qualifying consumers.” 
    Id. The Commission
    used the same rationale to extend “own
    facilities” forbearance to other ETCs.6 And in 2012, the
    Commission adopted forbearance from the “own facilities”
    requirement for all non-facilities-based providers.7
    Consequently, as a result of the Commission’s blanket
    forbearance, resellers play a critical role in the Lifeline
    5
    Petition of TracFone Wireless, Inc. for Forbearance from 47
    U.S.C. § 214(e)(1)(A) and 47 C.F.R. § 54.201(i), Order, 20
    FCC Rcd. 15095, 15100 ¶ 9 (2005) (“2005 Forbearance
    Order”).
    6
    See Virgin Mobile USA, L.P. Petition for Forbearance from
    47 U.S.C. § 214(e)(1)(A) et al., Order, 24 FCC Rcd. 3381,
    ¶¶ 19–21 (2009); i-Wireless, LLC Petition for Forbearance
    from 47 U.S.C. § 214(e)(1)(A) et al., Order, 25 FCC Rcd. 8784,
    ¶ 7 (2010).
    7
    Lifeline and Link Up Reform and Modernization et al., Report
    and Order and Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, 27
    FCC Rcd. 6656, ¶ 368 (2012) (“2012 Lifeline Reform Order”).
    9
    program: by 2015, approximately two-thirds of eligible low-
    income consumers on Tribal lands relied on non-facilities-
    based providers for their Lifeline services.
    Beginning in 2012, the Commission also emphasized the
    need to comprehensively improve and modernize Lifeline
    operations. 2012 Lifeline Reform Order, note 7, ¶ 2.
    Expenditures for the Lifeline program had increased
    substantially, from $582 million in 1998 to $2.4 billion in 2012.
    
    Id. ¶ 23.
    To “constrain the growth of the program in order to
    reduce the burden on all who contribute to the Universal
    Service Fund,” 
    id. ¶ 1,
    the Commission adopted reforms to
    eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse in the program, establishing,
    among other things, national eligibility criteria, certification
    requirements, and independent audit requirements on certain
    larger carriers. 
    Id. ¶ 4.
    Then, on June 22, 2015, the Commission initiated a
    proceeding to achieve “a fundamental, comprehensive
    restructuring of the program.”8 The Commission sought
    comment on proposals to change the Lifeline and Tribal
    Lifeline programs, including whether to “limit enhanced Tribal
    Lifeline and Link Up support only to those Lifeline providers
    who have facilities,” 2015 Lifeline Second FNPRM, note 8,
    ¶ 167, and whether to “focus enhanced Tribal support to those
    Tribal areas with lower population densities,” 
    id. ¶¶ 169–70.
    The Commission made substantial changes to the Lifeline
    program in April 2016 but did not change the Tribal Lifeline
    8
    Lifeline and Link Up Reform and Modernization et al.,
    Second Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, Order on
    Reconsideration, Second Report and Order, and Memorandum
    Opinion and Order, 30 FCC Rcd. 7818, 7824 (2015) (“2015
    Lifeline Second FNPRM”).
    10
    program.9 For example, the Commission established minimum
    service standards for broadband and mobile voice services,
    created a National Verifier program to ensure only eligible
    subscribers may enroll in Lifeline support, and encouraged the
    entry of new broadband providers into the Lifeline program.
    2016 Lifeline Modernization Order, note 9, ¶¶ 6–8. The
    Commission recognized that like telephone service in previous
    generations, broadband Internet service “has evolved into the
    essential communications medium of the digital economy.” 
    Id. ¶ 12.
    It decided to “maintain the current set of Tribal-specific
    eligibility programs,” “agree[ing] with commenters” that
    “there is much more progress to be made in increasing
    penetration and adoption of Lifeline services.” 
    Id. ¶ 205.
    Of
    significance, the Commission also stated that certain Tribal
    Lifeline eligibility issues it had raised in the 2015 Lifeline
    Second FNPRM, including the proposed facilities requirement
    and rural limitation, would “remain open for consideration in a
    future proceeding more comprehensively focused on
    advancing broadband deployment on Tribal lands.” 
    Id. ¶ 211
    & nn. 570–71.
    On October 26, 2017, the Commission released a draft
    order adopting a facilities requirement and rural limitation for
    the Tribal Lifeline program.10 Some comments were submitted
    to the Commission. A public notice of November 9, 2017
    9
    Lifeline and Link Up Reform and Modernization et al., Third
    Report and Order, Further Report and Order, and Order on
    Reconsideration, 31 FCC Rcd. 3962, ¶¶ 205–11 (2016) (“2016
    Lifeline Modernization Order”).
    10
    See FCC Fact Sheet: Bridging the Digital Divide for Low-
    Income Consumers, Fourth Report and Order, Order on
    Reconsideration, Memorandum Opinion and Order, Notice of
    Proposed Rulemaking, and Notice of Inquiry, FCC-CIRC
    1711-05 (Oct. 26, 2017).
    11
    announced the beginning of the Sunshine Period and prohibited
    interested persons from lobbying the Commission. See 47
    C.F.R. § 1.1200. A week later, on November 16, 2017, the
    Commission voted 3-2 in favor of the draft 2017 Order with
    some modifications.11 In the 2017 Lifeline Order, the
    Commission adopted two limitations that petitioners challenge.
    First, the Tribal Facilities Requirement limits enhanced
    Tribal Lifeline support to “fixed or mobile wireless facilities-
    based Lifeline service provided on Tribal lands with wireless
    network facilities covering all or a portion of the relevant
    Lifeline ETC’s service area on Tribal lands.” 2017 Lifeline
    Order, note 11, ¶ 24. To possess “facilities” for purposes of
    the enhanced subsidy, “a mobile wireless provider must hold
    usage rights under a spectrum license or a long-term spectrum
    leasing arrangement along with wireless network facilities that
    can be used to provide wireless voice and broadband services.”
    
    Id. “If an
    ETC offers service using its own as well as others’
    facilities in its service area on rural Tribal lands, it may only
    receive enhanced support for the customers it serves using its
    own last-mile facilities.” 
    Id. ¶ 26.
    The Commission stated that
    the Tribal Facilities Requirement “will focus the enhanced
    support toward those providers directly investing in voice- and
    broadband-capable networks” on Tribal lands, ensuring that
    Tribal Lifeline payments “will be reinvested in the ‘provision,
    maintenance, and upgrading’ of facilities” in Tribal areas. 
    Id. ¶ 27.
    11
    Bridging the Digital Divide for Low-Income Consumers et
    al., Fourth Report and Order, Order on Reconsideration,
    Memorandum Opinion and Order, Notice of Proposed
    Rulemaking, and Notice of Inquiry, 32 FCC Rcd. 10475
    (released Dec. 1, 2017) (“2017 Lifeline Order”), 83 Fed. Reg.
    2075 (Jan. 16, 2016).
    12
    Second, the Tribal Rural Limitation limits enhanced Tribal
    Lifeline support to residents of “rural” areas on Tribal lands.
    
    Id. ¶ 3.
    It adopts the definitions of “rural” and “urban” used in
    the Commission’s Schools and Libraries Program (“E-Rate”),
    which defines “urban” as “an urbanized area or urban cluster
    area with a population equal to or greater than 25,000,” and
    “rural” as any area that is not “urban,” 47 C.F.R.
    § 54.505(b)(3). 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11, ¶ 5. The
    Commission stated that providing enhanced Lifeline support in
    “more densely populated Tribal lands” was “inconsistent with
    the Commission’s primary purpose of the enhanced support,”
    observing approximately 98% of people living in urban areas
    in the United States have access to fixed broadband Internet.
    
    Id. ¶ 9.
    Timely petitions for review were filed. Following denial
    of a stay by the Commission, the court granted petitioners’
    motion for a judicial stay, concluding “[p]etitioners have
    demonstrated a likelihood of success on the merits of their
    arguments that the facilities-based and rural areas
    limitations . . . are arbitrary and capricious.” Nos. 18-1026,
    18-1080, Order, at 2 (D.C. Cir. Aug. 10, 2018).
    II.
    Petitioners challenge the 2017 Lifeline Order, contending
    that both the Tribal Facilities Requirement and Tribal Rural
    Limitation are arbitrary and capricious because the
    Commission failed to consider several key issues, such as the
    impact of its action on service access and affordability.
    Petitioners also contend the Commission failed to provide
    sufficient notice of the proposed changes, and to initiate, as it
    stated it would, a new notice-and-comment rulemaking before
    adopting these changes to the Tribal Lifeline program.
    Petitioners further contend the Commission violated its own
    13
    procedural requirements by failing to consult Indian tribes in
    advance.
    Under the Administrative Procedure Act, the reviewing
    court “shall . . . hold unlawful and set aside agency action . . .
    found to be . . . arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or
    otherwise not in accordance with law.” 5 U.S.C. § 706(2). The
    agency must “articulate a satisfactory explanation for its action
    including a rational connection between the facts found and the
    choice made.” Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n v. State Farm Mut.
    Auto. Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43 (1983). Agency action is
    arbitrary and capricious if the agency “has relied on factors
    which Congress has not intended it to consider, entirely failed
    to consider an important aspect of the problem, offered an
    explanation for its decision that runs counter to the evidence
    before the agency, or is so implausible that it could not be
    ascribed to a difference in view or the product of agency
    expertise.” 
    Id. Of course,
    “[a]gencies are free to change their
    existing policies as long as they provide a reasoned explanation
    for the change.” Encino Motorcars, LLC v. Navarro, 136 S.
    Ct. 2117, 2125 (2016) (citing Nat’l Cable & Telecomms. Ass’n
    v. Brand X Internet Servs., 
    545 U.S. 967
    , 981–82 (2005)).
    Although the court’s review entails a “narrow” standard of
    review, “an agency [must] ‘examine the relevant data and
    articulate a satisfactory explanation for its action.’” FCC v.
    Fox Television Stations, Inc., 
    556 U.S. 502
    , 513 (2009)
    (quoting State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    ). This same standard
    applies when an agency changes its prior policy. See 
    id. But the
    new policy must be permissible under the statute, and the
    agency must acknowledge it is changing its policy and show
    that “there are good reasons” for the new policy and “that the
    agency believes it to be better, which the conscious change of
    course adequately indicates.” 
    Id. at 515.
    An agency cannot
    ignore its prior factual findings that contradict its new policy
    14
    nor ignore reliance interests. 
    Id. at 515–16.
    “[A] reasoned
    explanation is needed for disregarding facts and circumstances
    that underlay or were engendered by the prior policy.” 
    Id. at 516.
    This court has thus understood its role to be confined “to
    ensur[ing] that the [agency] engaged in reasoned
    decisionmaking,” Farmers Union Cent. Exch., Inc. v. FERC,
    
    734 F.2d 1486
    , 1500 (D.C. Cir. 1984), after a “searching and
    careful inquiry” of the record, Mississippi v. EPA, 
    744 F.3d 1334
    , 1342 (D.C. Cir. 2013). The agency’s substantive
    decision must be supported by “substantial evidence” in the
    administrative record. Comcast Corp. v. FCC, 
    579 F.3d 1
    , 5,
    7 (D.C. Cir. 2009).
    A.
    Congress established in the 1996 Act the principles
    underlying the universal service program as making “[q]uality
    services” “available at just, reasonable, and affordable rates.”
    47 U.S.C. § 254(b)(1). Since at least 2000, the Commission
    has articulated the “primary goal” of the enhanced Tribal
    subsidy as “reduc[ing] the monthly cost of telecommunications
    services for qualifying low-income individuals on tribal lands,
    so as to encourage those without service to initiate service and
    better enable those currently subscribed to maintain service.”
    2000 Tribal Lifeline Order, note 3, ¶ 44. Although the
    Commission has recognized the importance of encouraging
    infrastructure development, 
    id. ¶¶ 52–55,
    the Commission’s
    long-stated primary tenets for the program are availability and
    affordability. The Commission adopted the enhanced Tribal
    subsidy specifically for the purpose of increasing
    “subscribership” in view of the financial obstacles facing
    Tribal participation. See 
    id. ¶ 44.
    The Commission reaffirmed
    this understanding of Tribal Lifeline’s purpose in 2012, stating
    that the Tribal Lifeline program was a “direct response to the
    disproportionately low subscribership to telecommunications
    services among Tribal communities at the time.” 2012 Lifeline
    15
    Reform Order, note 7, ¶ 150. Yet in 2017, the Commission
    ignored the substantial impact of these changes on affordability
    and access. See, e.g., 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11, ¶ 24. While
    acknowledging that Lifeline funds disbursed to resellers
    “w[ould] still lower the cost of the consumer’s service,” 
    id. ¶ 23,
    the Commission explained the Tribal Facilities
    Requirement on the basis that these funds “cannot directly
    support the provider’s network because the provider does not
    have one,” 
    id. This fails
    to consider the impact of the change
    on the Lifeline subsidy’s “primary purpose” or otherwise
    explain how it is compatible with that purpose.
    The Commission also failed to justify its fundamental
    policy reversal on forbearing the “own facilities” requirement
    in light of its previous findings regarding the important role of
    non-facilities-based providers in promoting affordable
    telecommunications service.          For thirteen years, the
    Commission forbore from enforcing the “own facilities”
    requirement based on finding that “the facilities requirement
    impedes greater utilization of Lifeline-supported services
    provided by a pure wireless reseller,” 2005 Forbearance
    Order, note 5, ¶ 9, and that making non-facilities-based
    providers eligible would increase access to affordable services,
    
    id. ¶¶ 13,
    24. The Commission had found that because Lifeline
    support to wireless carriers is customer-specific, its previous
    concern that resellers might receive a double recovery did not
    apply. 
    Id. ¶ 12.
    The Commission also found that forbearance
    would “benefit consumers” because low-income consumers
    would have “a choice of providers not available to such
    consumers today for accessing telecommunications services.”
    
    Id. ¶ 15.
    Yet in 2017, the Commission rescinded its policy of
    forbearance as to the Tribal Lifeline program without
    conducting a new forbearance analysis or providing any
    reasoned explanation for its reversal. See generally 2017
    Lifeline Order, note 11, ¶¶ 21–30. Even on appeal, the
    16
    Commission does not acknowledge the policy reversal on the
    enhanced subsidy, which made reselling attractive
    economically, instead maintaining that non-facilities-based
    providers can still participate as Lifeline providers; they are
    just limited to the baseline monthly subsidy of $9.25. Resp’t’s
    Br. 54. The Commission never explained why its previous
    forbearance findings no longer applied. Although the
    Commission sought comment on whether it should reverse the
    forbearance findings, it made no new findings with regard to
    forbearance of the “own facilities” requirement for the
    enhanced subsidy. 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11, ¶¶ 69–79. Its
    reference in its notice of proposed rulemaking to major
    Commission actions for “waste, fraud, and abuse” against
    resellers, see 
    id. ¶ 68,
    can provide no justification for the Tribal
    Facilities Requirement absent evidence that a substantial
    portion of the two-thirds of services supplied by non-facilities-
    based providers are, in fact, fraudulent or wasteful, and the
    Commission pointed to none.
    The Commission also “failed to consider . . . important
    aspect[s] of the problem” in adopting the Tribal Facilities
    Requirement. State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    . First, the
    Commission’s decision does not indicate consideration of
    facilities-based providers’ unwillingness to offer Tribal
    Lifeline services. Numerous commenters explained that the
    major facilities-based providers — AT&T, T-Mobile, and
    Verizon — have relinquished their Lifeline eligibility
    altogether, and despite maintaining Lifeline eligibility, Sprint
    also does not offer any Tribal Lifeline services.12 The
    12
    See, e.g., Lifeline and Link Up Reform and Modernization et
    al., Comments of Navajo Nation Telecommunications
    Regulatory Commission, 10 (Aug. 28, 2015) (“Navajo Nation
    Comments”); Lifeline and Link Up Reform and Modernization
    et al., Comments of Assist Wireless, LLC & Easy Telephone
    17
    statement of a dissenting Commission Member also makes
    clear the Commission knew that the major facilities-based
    providers were uninterested in providing Tribal Lifeline
    services yet failed to address the problem that would be created
    as a result of changing its policy. For thirteen years, the
    Commission had justified forbearance in part based on the
    ability of non-facilities-based providers to offer minimum
    services at competitive rates by purchasing facilities-based
    providers’ services wholesale and then reselling them. See
    2012 Lifeline Reform Order, note 7, ¶ 371. By 2015, the
    Commission reported “two-thirds of enhanced Tribal support
    goes to non-facilities-based providers, and it is unclear whether
    the support is being used to deploy facilities in Tribal areas,”
    still thereby suggesting that eligible consumers relied on non-
    facilities-based providers for their telecommunications
    services. 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11, ¶ 23. This reliance
    exists because non-facilities-based providers can efficiently
    reach the low-income population with targeted service plans
    and because the largest facilities-based providers are unwilling
    to participate in a program that is unprofitable for them.13
    Services Co., 18–19 (Aug. 31, 2015); Lifeline and Link Up
    Reform and Modernization et al., Comments of AT&T, 5–6 &
    n.10 (Aug. 31, 2015); Lifeline and Link Up Reform and
    Modernization et al., Comments of the Oglala Sioux Tribe
    Utility Commission, Attachment, 3 (Aug. 31, 2015); Lifeline
    and Link Up Reform and Modernization et al., Crow Creek
    Sioux Tribal Resolution, 1 (June 1, 2017); Lifeline and Link Up
    Reform and Modernization et al., Assist Wireless, LLC,
    Boomerang Wireless, LLC, and Easy Telephone Services Co.
    Written Ex Parte Presentation, 5 (Nov. 9, 2017) (“Assist Ex
    Parte”).
    13
    See Implementation of Section 6002(b) of the Omnibus
    Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 et al., Eleventh Report, 21
    FCC Rcd. 10947, ¶ 28 (2006); Lifeline and Link Up Reform
    18
    Second, the Commission’s decision does not indicate that
    it considered the effect of eliminating the enhanced subsidy for
    non-facilities-based providers, namely that many low-income
    consumers on Tribal lands will lose access to affordable
    telecommunications service. Commenters explained that
    because certain areas have no facilities-based provider willing
    to provide Lifeline service, removing the enhanced subsidy
    from non-facilities-based providers will make those services
    unavailable to consumers.14 The Commission was aware that
    two-thirds of enhanced Tribal support goes to non-facilities-
    based providers, see 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11, ¶ 23, yet
    never appears to address what would happen to these
    consumers when the subsidy was removed. Instead, the
    Commission summarily “conclude[d] that providing the
    enhanced support to Lifeline providers deploying, building,
    and maintaining critical last mile infrastructure is a more
    appropriate way to support the expansion of voice- and
    broadband-capable networks on Tribal lands.” 
    Id. ¶ 28.
    Although the court must “give appropriate deference to
    predictive judgments” by an agency where supported by
    “[s]ubstantial evidence,” Time Warner Entm’t Co. v. FCC, 
    240 F.3d 1126
    , 1133 (D.C. Cir. 2001), the Commission referred to
    no evidence that facilities-based providers will make up the gap
    in services when non-facilities-based providers are ineligible to
    receive the enhanced Tribal subsidy.
    and Modernization et al., Reply Comments of Boomerang
    Wireless, LLC, 4 (Sept. 30, 2015) (“Boomerang Reply
    Comments”); Bridging the Digital Divide for Low-Income
    Consumers et al., Letter from CTIA to FCC, 3–4 (Nov. 8,
    2017).
    14
    See, e.g., Boomerang Reply Comments, note 13, at 6; Assist
    Ex Parte, note 12, at 5.
    19
    Third, the Commission pointed to no record evidence that
    directing the enhanced Tribal subsidy solely to facilities-based
    providers would incentivize them to deploy additional facilities
    and networks, reduce prices, or offer new service plans for low-
    income consumers. See 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11, ¶ 27.
    Comments that the Commission points to in its brief on appeal,
    see Resp’t’s Br. 49–50, do not show how limiting the enhanced
    subsidy to facilities-based providers will increase network
    buildout, much less do so in areas where there is no facilities-
    based provider participating in the Tribal Lifeline program that
    could receive the enhanced subsidy. Further, the Commission
    did not meaningfully address comments and evidence that
    undercut its conclusion, such as economic analysis in the
    record indicating that subsidizing non-facilities-based
    subscribership also supports network buildout.15 Commenters
    noted that “[f]acilities-based and non-facilities-based
    carriers . . . operate symbiotically” and that “[t]he result of this
    relationship is enhanced capacity utilization and hence more
    investment than would happen in the absence of [non-facilities-
    based carriers].”16 The Commission has recognized in other
    contexts that facilities-based providers may contract with
    resellers “when the [wireless reseller] has better access to some
    market segments than the host facilities-based service
    provider” and when the reseller “can better target specific
    market segments, such as low-income consumers or consumers
    with lower data-usage needs.”17
    15
    See Assist Ex Parte, note 12, at 8–9; see also Bridging the
    Digital Divide for Low-Income Consumers et al., Comments of
    CTIA, 15 (Feb. 21, 2018) (“CTIA Comments”).
    16
    CTIA Comments, Declaration of John Mayo, ¶ 7 (Feb. 19,
    2018).
    17
    Implementation of Section 6002(b) of the Omnibus Budget
    Reconciliation Act of 1993 et al., Twentieth Report, 32 FCC
    Rcd. 8968, ¶ 15 (2017).
    20
    Fourth, the Commission ignored “serious reliance
    interests” engendered by its policy of forbearance. See Fox
    
    Television, 556 U.S. at 515
    . As in Encino Motorcars, 136 S.
    Ct. at 2126, the Commission’s decision does not take into
    account the reliance interests of both the non-facilities-based
    providers that had crafted business models and invested
    significant resources into providing Lifeline service, and the
    two-thirds of subscribers relying on non-facilities-based
    providers for their telecommunications service.            The
    Commission neither attempted to estimate the number of
    consumers who would be unable to afford service without the
    enhanced subsidy or would lose access to service altogether
    when non-facilities-based providers discontinued their plans,
    nor did it consider alternatives to ensure coverage for these
    consumers or respond to these objections. The dissenting
    Commissioner raised these concerns, and an agency has an
    obligation to consider an alternative or objection raised by a
    dissenting Commissioner that was “neither frivolous nor out of
    bounds.” Chamber of Commerce v. SEC, 
    412 F.3d 133
    , 144–
    45 (D.C. Cir. 2005). After the draft 2017 Order was released,
    ETCs filed data showing that approximately 75% of Tribal
    Lifeline customers could not afford to pay the additional $25
    per month. Comments also indicated that non-facilities-based
    providers have developed a business model based on “buying
    large blocks of minutes from the major carriers and then
    reselling those minutes as Lifeline packages,” thereby
    depending upon the enhanced subsidy to enable significant
    numbers of low-income consumers to subscribe to their prepaid
    or minimal service plans. See Navajo Nation Comments, note
    12, at 10.
    By departing from its prior forbearance policy without
    reasoned explanation and failing to consider key aspects of the
    program — e.g., facilities-based providers’ unwillingness to
    21
    offer Tribal Lifeline services, the effect of eliminating the
    enhanced Tribal subsidy on access and affordability, the effect
    of directing the subsidy only to facilities-based providers on
    network buildout, and the reliance interests of these carriers
    and their consumers — the Commission’s adoption of the
    Tribal Facilities Requirement was arbitrary and capricious. See
    State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    . In view of these failures by the
    Commission, the court need not address petitioners’
    contentions that the Tribal Facilities Requirement violates
    sections 10, 214, and 254 of the 1996 Act.
    B.
    The Commission also did not consider the impact of its
    Tribal Rural Limitation on service access and affordability.
    Although referring to the general disparity between urban and
    rural areas in the United States in terms of telecommunications
    infrastructure, see 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11, ¶ 3, the
    Commission pointed to no record evidence that
    telecommunications services are more available or more
    affordable for low-income consumers on urban Tribal lands
    than on rural Tribal lands, such that the enhanced subsidy
    would be less necessary in urban areas for furthering the
    Lifeline program’s primary goals of access and affordability.
    See 
    id. ¶¶ 3–9.
    Even with a developed infrastructure of
    network services in urban areas, low-income consumers may
    still be unable to afford those services without the enhanced
    Tribal subsidy. The Commission failed to refer to any data
    considering the relevant impacts on service access and
    affordability.
    The Commission also failed to refer to data considering
    the impact of its Tribal Rural Limitation on incentivizing
    infrastructure deployment. The Commission referred to the
    deployment data only for fixed voice and broadband service.
    See 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11, ¶ 9. It did not show that it
    22
    examined deployment data for the wireless services, to which
    the vast majority of Tribal Lifeline recipients subscribe. See
    
    id. ¶ 23.18
    The Commission’s conclusion that limiting the
    enhanced Tribal subsidy to rural lands will incentivize
    deployment is thus speculative. By failing to “examine the
    relevant data,” the Commission’s adoption of the Tribal Rural
    Limitation was arbitrary and capricious. NTCH, Inc. v. FCC,
    
    841 F.3d 497
    , 502 (D.C. Cir. 2016) (quoting State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    ).
    III.
    Petitioners challenge the 2017 Lifeline Order on
    procedural grounds as well. An agency’s substantive rules are
    subject to the requirements of notice-and-comment rulemaking
    under the APA. Mendoza v. Perez, 
    754 F.3d 1002
    , 1020–21
    (D.C. Cir. 2014). To meet the rulemaking requirements of
    section 553 of the APA, an agency “must provide sufficient
    factual detail and rationale for the rule to permit interested
    parties to comment meaningfully.” Florida Power & Light Co.
    v. United States, 
    846 F.2d 765
    , 771 (D.C. Cir. 1988). After
    publishing notice in the Federal Register of “the terms or
    substance of the proposed rule or a description of the subjects
    and issues involved,” the agency “shall give interested persons
    an opportunity to participate in the rule making through
    submission of written data, views, or arguments.” 5 U.S.C
    § 553(b), (c). For notice to be sufficient, the final rule must be
    “a logical outgrowth” of the proposed rule in the sense that the
    original notice must “adequately frame the subjects for
    18
    See also, e.g., Lifeline and Link Up Reform and
    Modernization et al., Comments of Assist Wireless, LLC and
    Easy Telephone Service Co., 2 (Aug. 31, 2015); Lifeline and
    Link Up Reform and Modernization et al., Comments of
    Boomerang Wireless, LLC, 6–9 (Aug. 31, 2015).
    23
    discussion.” Omnipoint Corp. v. FCC, 
    78 F.3d 620
    , 631 (D.C.
    Cir. 1996). Put otherwise, “the affected party ‘should have
    anticipated’ the agency’s final course in light of the initial
    notice.” Covad Commc’ns Co. v. FCC, 
    450 F.3d 528
    , 548
    (D.C. Cir. 2006). A reviewing court is to take “due
    account . . . of the rule of prejudicial error.” 5 U.S.C. § 706.
    A.
    Petitioners maintain that the Tribal Rural Limitation is not
    a “logical outgrowth” of the Commission’s proposal in the
    2015 Lifeline Second FNPRM. That proposal called for using
    the Department of Agriculture’s rule excluding towns or cities
    with populations greater than 10,000. The final rule excludes
    “urbanized areas” and “urban clusters” with populations
    greater than 25,000; in effect, this definition can and does
    exclude some small towns of significantly less than 25,000 or
    even 10,000 people (despite contrary terms in the proposed
    rule).19    The Commission sought comment on several
    population-density-based definitions for “rural” lands, but
    neither the adopted E-Rate definition nor the “urban cluster”
    methodology was mentioned in the notice.
    Although agency notice need not predict “the exact result
    reached after a notice and comment rulemaking,” Pub. Serv.
    Comm’n v. FCC, 
    906 F.2d 713
    , 717 (D.C. Cir. 1990),
    comments on the draft 2017 Order indicated the Commission’s
    proposed and final rules were unclear in scope. The
    Commission failed to provide the searchable maps or digital
    “shapefiles,” so that at least affected persons could determine
    the impact of the rule, until after the final rule was published.
    See 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11, ¶ 15. Insofar as the maps
    were necessary to appreciate that even some towns with
    19
    See Shapefile of Rural Tribal Lands, https://www.usac.org/
    li/tools/reference-area.aspx.
    24
    populations under 10,000 people (contrary to the
    Commission’s original proposal of excluding towns above
    10,000 people) would be excluded from the enhanced subsidy
    under the “urban cluster” methodology, the 2015 Lifeline
    Second FNPRM was inadequate to enable sufficient comment
    on the proposed rule, much less allow an understanding of the
    effect of the final rule.
    B.
    The Commission also improperly adopted the two
    challenged limitations without commencing a new notice-and-
    comment-rulemaking proceeding as it had promised. The
    Commission does not contest that the Tribal Facilities
    Requirement and Tribal Rural Limitation are substantive
    changes in the regulations that required a new notice-and-
    comment-rulemaking proceeding. 
    Mendoza, 754 F.3d at 1020
    –21. Instead, it maintains that it provided all the
    proceeding it had promised when it proposed the changes in
    2015 and kept the docket open for comments after issuing the
    2016 Lifeline Modernization Order. See Resp’t’s Br. 30–31.
    Although an agency may be able to issue multiple orders
    based on a single notice-and-comment rulemaking, the
    Commission stated it would address any remaining Tribal
    issues in a “future proceeding more comprehensively focused
    on advancing broadband deployment on Tribal lands.” 2016
    Lifeline Modernization Order, note 9, ¶ 211. This statement
    signaled to interested persons that until a new notice-and-
    comment rulemaking was commenced, there was no reason to
    submit further comment regarding a facilities requirement and
    a rural limitation in response to the 2015 Lifeline Second
    FNPRM. By referring to a “proceeding” and a “more
    comprehensive[] focus,” the Commission gave interested
    persons every reason to conclude the old docket was closed and
    additional comments on these proposed limitations could be
    25
    submitted at a later time as part of a new rulemaking
    proceeding.     This interpretation is consistent with the
    Commission’s own definition of “proceeding” as a process for
    “obtaining information,” 47 C.F.R. § 1.1, as well as the
    Commission’s past practice of referring to a new notice-and-
    comment-rulemaking proceeding when it promised a “future
    proceeding.”20 It is also consonant with the APA’s definition
    of a “proceeding” as a rulemaking, an adjudication, or a
    licensing, 5 U.S.C. § 551(12); see 
    id. § 551(5),
    (7), (9), as the
    latter were not being considered.
    The Commission’s procedural error is not harmless;
    petitioners have additional information that is directly on point
    — including comments on the geographic maps delineating
    “urban” versus “rural” areas, data about the cost of services to
    consumers, updated information about facilities-based
    providers’ relinquishment of eligibility, and econometric
    studies. See CSX Transp. v. Surface Transp. Bd., 
    584 F.3d 1076
    , 1083 (D.C. Cir. 2009). The two-week period between
    issuance of the unpublished draft 2017 Order on October 26
    and the public notice on November 9 cutting off lobbying was
    not an adequate period for eliciting meaningful comments.
    When substantial rule changes are proposed, a 30-day
    comment period is generally the shortest time period sufficient
    for interested persons to meaningfully review a proposed rule
    20
    See, e.g., Improvements to Benchmarks and Related
    Requirements Governing Hearing Aid-Compatible Mobile
    Handsets, Report and Order, 31 FCC Rcd. 9336, ¶¶ 42–43
    (2016); An Inquiry Into the Commission’s Policies and Rules
    Regarding AM Radio Service Directional Antenna
    Performance Verification, Second Report and Order and
    Second Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, 23 FCC Rcd.
    14267, ¶ 11 (2008).
    26
    and provide informed comment. Petry v. Block, 
    737 F.2d 1193
    ,
    1201 (D.C. Cir. 1984); see Prometheus Radio Project v. FCC,
    
    652 F.3d 431
    , 453 (3d Cir. 2011). Here, comments on the draft
    2017 Order reflect the inability to comment meaningfully
    within this brief time.21 See Allina Health Servs. v. Sebelius,
    
    746 F.3d 1102
    , 1110 (D.C. Cir. 2014). Petitioners’ new data
    and information demonstrate that inviting another round of
    comments on these Tribal rural issues would allow the
    Commission to act on the basis of up-to-date, more
    comprehensive, and specifically targeted information.22 New
    information was presented as well in the course of seeking a
    stay of the challenged order from the Commission once the
    Commission made population maps available and better
    21
    Bridging the Digital Divide for Low-Income Consumers et
    al., Ex Parte Letter of Native Public Media, 1–2 (Nov. 7,
    2017); Bridging the Digital Divide for Low-Income Consumers
    et al., Ex Parte Letter of Lifeline Connects Coalition, National
    Lifeline Association, Boomerang Wireless, LLC and Easy
    Telephone Services Co., 2–3 (Nov. 9, 2017); Bridging the
    Digital Divide for Low-Income Consumers et al., Ex Parte
    Letter of Lifeline Connects Coalition, National Lifeline
    Association, Boomerang Wireless, LLC and Easy Telephone
    Services Co., 3–5 (Nov. 13, 2017). Assist, Boomerang, and
    Easy commented that without population maps it was not
    possible to identify the boundaries of the “rural” area
    contemplated in the draft 2017 Order. Assist Ex Parte, note
    12, at 7 n.22.
    22
    See 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11, Notice of Inquiry ¶¶ 123,
    125; Bridging the Digital Divide for Low-Income Consumers
    et al., Comments of the National Lifeline Association, 9–11,
    57–62, 106–08 (Feb. 21, 2018); 2017 Lifeline Order, note 11,
    Dissenting Statement of Commissioner Mignon L. Clyburn, 32
    FCC Rcd. at 10,558.
    27
    defined “rural.”23 The Commission’s promise of a new
    rulemaking proceeding effectively lulled interested persons
    into concluding that they did not need to quickly submit
    additional evidence to the Commission or request additional
    time. See CSX 
    Transp., 584 F.3d at 1083
    . In view of the need
    for a new notice-and-comment-rulemaking proceeding as
    promised, the court need not address petitioners’ contention
    that the Commission failed to follow its Tribal consultation
    policy.
    Accordingly, because the Commission’s adoption of the
    Tribal Facilities Requirement and Tribal Rural Limitation was
    arbitrary and capricious, the court grants the petitions and
    vacates the 2017 Lifeline Order as challenged in the petitions,
    and remands the matter to the Commission for a new notice-
    and-comment rulemaking proceeding.
    23
    See Bridging the Digital Divide for Low-Income Consumers
    et al., Joint Petition for Stay of Fourth Report and Order
    Pending Judicial Review, Declarations of David Dorwat, Joe
    Fernandez, Joseph G. Wildcat, Jason Schlender, Phyliss J.
    Anderson, Sarah Stahelin.